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000
FXUS62 KTAE 271604
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1104 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
12 UTC surface analysis shows the dry cold front associated with
the clipper system moving through the Carolinas had passed through
the forecast area. Not too much in the way of drier air behind
this system, but it has provided a reinforcing shot of cooler air.
High pressure across the Central Plains will move eastward today.
With sunny skies, but weak cold advection, expect highs only in
the lower 60s in North Florida and in the upper 50s across
Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

&&

.Marine...
Winds have decreased slightly across the near shore legs to the
point that the small craft advisory can be discontinued. Further
offshore winds remain around 20 knots with seas slow to subside.
With the offshore buoys occasionally reporting 8 and 9 foot seas,
will extend the SCA through Friday morning as a slight increase in
offshore winds is expected overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [323 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will move
east over the western Atlantic with deep layer ridging gradually
building in over the local region. The position of the surface high
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley by daybreak Friday.
Overnight winds will be light from the north but we still should
see a light freeze across most inland areas. Highs will remain below
average Friday (mid to upper 50s). Another light freeze is possible
Friday night, mainly along and east of the river. With rising
heights as the upper ridge builds in, temps will be warmer on
Saturday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The deep layer ridge will hold through Sunday then move east with
the upper flow becoming nearly zonal through the remainder of the
period. The next cold front will approach late Thursday but any rain
with this system should hod off until Thursday night or Friday.
Highs will be seasonal in the lower 70s with lows in the gradually
moderating from the lower to mid 40s Saturday night to the lower
50s by Wednesday night.


.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail
through the period. The only impact to aviation weather will be
gusty northwest winds during the daylight hours. Gusts will be up
around 20 mph.


.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air has finally arrived
today and will remain in place for several days. The driest day will
be Friday. However, winds will not be high enough to achieve red
flag criteria on that day. Additionally, fuel moisture is high after
several days of rain. High dispersion indices are expected once
again today with values around 75 across parts of Southeast AL and
inland portions of the central and eastern FL Big Bend.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  32  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  39  56  41  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        58  32  55  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        59  30  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      60  31  56  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  32  58  31  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  64  39  57  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 271604
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1104 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
12 UTC surface analysis shows the dry cold front associated with
the clipper system moving through the Carolinas had passed through
the forecast area. Not too much in the way of drier air behind
this system, but it has provided a reinforcing shot of cooler air.
High pressure across the Central Plains will move eastward today.
With sunny skies, but weak cold advection, expect highs only in
the lower 60s in North Florida and in the upper 50s across
Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

&&

.Marine...
Winds have decreased slightly across the near shore legs to the
point that the small craft advisory can be discontinued. Further
offshore winds remain around 20 knots with seas slow to subside.
With the offshore buoys occasionally reporting 8 and 9 foot seas,
will extend the SCA through Friday morning as a slight increase in
offshore winds is expected overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [323 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will move
east over the western Atlantic with deep layer ridging gradually
building in over the local region. The position of the surface high
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley by daybreak Friday.
Overnight winds will be light from the north but we still should
see a light freeze across most inland areas. Highs will remain below
average Friday (mid to upper 50s). Another light freeze is possible
Friday night, mainly along and east of the river. With rising
heights as the upper ridge builds in, temps will be warmer on
Saturday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The deep layer ridge will hold through Sunday then move east with
the upper flow becoming nearly zonal through the remainder of the
period. The next cold front will approach late Thursday but any rain
with this system should hod off until Thursday night or Friday.
Highs will be seasonal in the lower 70s with lows in the gradually
moderating from the lower to mid 40s Saturday night to the lower
50s by Wednesday night.


.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail
through the period. The only impact to aviation weather will be
gusty northwest winds during the daylight hours. Gusts will be up
around 20 mph.


.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air has finally arrived
today and will remain in place for several days. The driest day will
be Friday. However, winds will not be high enough to achieve red
flag criteria on that day. Additionally, fuel moisture is high after
several days of rain. High dispersion indices are expected once
again today with values around 75 across parts of Southeast AL and
inland portions of the central and eastern FL Big Bend.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  32  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  39  56  41  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        58  32  55  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        59  30  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      60  31  56  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  32  58  31  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  64  39  57  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271533
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1030 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...HAPPY THANKSGIVING...

.DISCUSSION...
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...RESPLENDENT SUNSHINE IS BEING FELT WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID 60S ALONG WITH
A FRESH TO STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND RANGING BETWEEN 15 AND 25
MPH. MEANWHILE...THE KAMX RADAR IS NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
ECHOES IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...A COLD FRONT LIES FROM THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO ACROSS EAST CENTRAL CUBA...WITH A LENGTHY RIDGE
EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS
RESULTING IN NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
AROUND 25 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS EXTREMELY
SCANT MOISTURE (PWAT .26 INCHES) WITHIN A BACKING NORTH...TO WEST
NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY REACHING WELL UP INTO THE TROPOSPHERE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED 5 TO 9 DEGREES C BELOW 900 MB OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
WITH A STRENGTHENING...DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN OLD MEXICO MOVING EASTWARD...AND A SHARP RIDGE REACHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO OUR AREA...VERY DRY AIR
WILL PERSIST. DESPITE GOLDEN SUNSHINE...MODERATE TO FRESH
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 DEGREES WHICH
WILL BE ABOUT 7 TO 9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SINCE THE CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL...NO ADJUSTMENT IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
DESPITE A BRIEF SLACKENING OF THE FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...ANOTHER MINOR WIND SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD OUR ENTIRE
MARINE DISTRICT TONIGHT. HENCE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&


.AVIATION...
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT BOTH THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. SKIES WILL EITHER BE
CLEAR OR HAVE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK. MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATORS IS A
CROSSWIND OF 20 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
DUE TO AN UNEXPECTED OUTAGE...THE KBYX RADAR WILL BE
DOWN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GREAT NEWS IS
THAT WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR REGION FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL.......APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS........................EV
DATA ACQUISITION.........................SC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST




















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000
FXUS62 KTBW 271449
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS
MAKING A PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR
IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ARE
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE
A DECENT WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING UNDER ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OVER LEVY
COUNTY AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH DURATIONS
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER LEVY DO NOT LOOK LONG ENOUGH FOR A
FREEZE WARNING...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
NATURE COAST...AND WIND CHILLS COULD BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN OF NOTE WILL BE A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY FOR PINELLAS...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES UNDER BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS STARTED EARLY FOR
THE GULF WATERS AS OFFSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY TOPPING 20 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK OVERALL...AND ONLY MINOR GRID
EDITS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE STARTED
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WAS INITIALLY FORECAST...SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS WAS STARTED EARLY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE
FORCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUAL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM AN OFFSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  43  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  72  44  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  68  40  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  43  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  35  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  48  63  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271449
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS
MAKING A PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR
IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ARE
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE
A DECENT WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING UNDER ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OVER LEVY
COUNTY AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH DURATIONS
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER LEVY DO NOT LOOK LONG ENOUGH FOR A
FREEZE WARNING...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
NATURE COAST...AND WIND CHILLS COULD BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN OF NOTE WILL BE A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY FOR PINELLAS...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES UNDER BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS STARTED EARLY FOR
THE GULF WATERS AS OFFSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY TOPPING 20 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK OVERALL...AND ONLY MINOR GRID
EDITS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE STARTED
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WAS INITIALLY FORECAST...SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS WAS STARTED EARLY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE
FORCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUAL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM AN OFFSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  43  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  72  44  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  68  40  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  43  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  35  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  48  63  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271449
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS
MAKING A PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR
IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ARE
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE
A DECENT WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING UNDER ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OVER LEVY
COUNTY AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH DURATIONS
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER LEVY DO NOT LOOK LONG ENOUGH FOR A
FREEZE WARNING...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
NATURE COAST...AND WIND CHILLS COULD BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN OF NOTE WILL BE A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY FOR PINELLAS...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES UNDER BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS STARTED EARLY FOR
THE GULF WATERS AS OFFSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY TOPPING 20 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK OVERALL...AND ONLY MINOR GRID
EDITS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE STARTED
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WAS INITIALLY FORECAST...SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS WAS STARTED EARLY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE
FORCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUAL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM AN OFFSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  43  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  72  44  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  68  40  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  43  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  35  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  48  63  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271449
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY COLUMN OF AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT IS
MAKING A PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THE DRY AIR
IN CONJUNCTION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ARE
KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY AND RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NIL.
DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MAKE
A DECENT WARM UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS ONLY A HANDFUL OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. LOWS TONIGHT ARE ON TRACK TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THIS MORNING UNDER ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING OVER LEVY
COUNTY AND IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. ALTHOUGH DURATIONS
OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER LEVY DO NOT LOOK LONG ENOUGH FOR A
FREEZE WARNING...PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE
NATURE COAST...AND WIND CHILLS COULD BE A CONCERN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN OF NOTE WILL BE A RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
TODAY FOR PINELLAS...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES UNDER BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS STARTED EARLY FOR
THE GULF WATERS AS OFFSHORE WINDS WERE ALREADY TOPPING 20 KNOTS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK OVERALL...AND ONLY MINOR GRID
EDITS WERE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE STARTED
INCREASING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN WAS INITIALLY FORECAST...SO THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GULF WATERS WAS STARTED EARLY. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE
FORCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUAL SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM AN OFFSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  43  63  48 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  72  44  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  68  40  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  43  65  49 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  35  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  48  63  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO
     60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 271430 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
SUNSHINE STATE AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON REINFORCING
THE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A DRY FRONT WITH NO CHANCES OF RAIN OR CLOUDS.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....13/SI
.AVAITION....PS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271430 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
SUNSHINE STATE AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON REINFORCING
THE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A DRY FRONT WITH NO CHANCES OF RAIN OR CLOUDS.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....13/SI
.AVAITION....PS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271430 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
SUNSHINE STATE AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON REINFORCING
THE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A DRY FRONT WITH NO CHANCES OF RAIN OR CLOUDS.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....13/SI
.AVAITION....PS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271430 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
SUNSHINE STATE AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON REINFORCING
THE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL
ALSO BE A DRY FRONT WITH NO CHANCES OF RAIN OR CLOUDS.
THEREFORE...THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....13/SI
.AVAITION....PS


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 271403
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
903 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT FOR INLAND NE FL...

.UPDATE...A DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER NE FL
TRAILED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH A
BREEZY/WINDY NW FLOW BY MIDDAY EXPECTED WITH NEAR 30 KTS OF WIND
AT 900 FT PER THE JAX 12Z RAOB AND 40 KTS AT 2 KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND AT THIS TIME STILL BELIEVE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS TEMPS DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM NEAR 30 WELL INLAND TO UPPER
30S RIVER BASIN/COAST. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND NE
FL...LESS ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY
INLAND WITH PLENTY OF GROUND MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH WINDS NW 20 KTS AND SEAS 4-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE WINDS 15-20
KTS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  32  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  60  38  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  61  33  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  38  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  63  33  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  65  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET/WALSH






000
FXUS62 KJAX 271403
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
903 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

...FREEZE WATCH TONIGHT FOR INLAND NE FL...

.UPDATE...A DRY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER NE FL
TRAILED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH A
BREEZY/WINDY NW FLOW BY MIDDAY EXPECTED WITH NEAR 30 KTS OF WIND
AT 900 FT PER THE JAX 12Z RAOB AND 40 KTS AT 2 KFT. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND AT THIS TIME STILL BELIEVE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO
RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING AS TEMPS DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOWS FRI MORNING RANGING FROM NEAR 30 WELL INLAND TO UPPER
30S RIVER BASIN/COAST. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND NE
FL...LESS ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY
INLAND WITH PLENTY OF GROUND MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH WINDS NW 20 KTS AND SEAS 4-7 FT WITH NEARSHORE WINDS 15-20
KTS AND SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND FRI.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  32  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  60  38  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  61  33  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  38  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  63  33  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  65  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/GUILLET/WALSH






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 271346
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
845 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER ON LOCAL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOULD PROMOTE
SUNNY SKIES ALL DAY WITH NW FLOW KEEPING THE DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM
BREVARD CO NORTHWARD WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE OVER THE TREASURE
COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH SKC. SFC WND GUSTS NR 20KT DURING AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LCL ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE AND OVER THE GULF STREAM WL SEE CHOPPY AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT DUE TO OPPOSING WIND WITH GUSTY
CONDS. ADVISORY CONDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND GULF STREAM REMAINS
IN PLACE INTO FRI.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

JP/DKW






000
FXUS62 KMLB 271346
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
845 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY DEEP DRY LAYER ON LOCAL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING SHOULD PROMOTE
SUNNY SKIES ALL DAY WITH NW FLOW KEEPING THE DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FROM
BREVARD CO NORTHWARD WITH SOME LOWER 70S POSSIBLE OVER THE TREASURE
COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH SKC. SFC WND GUSTS NR 20KT DURING AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
LCL ATLC WATERS OFFSHORE AND OVER THE GULF STREAM WL SEE CHOPPY AND
HAZARDOUS SEAS FOR SMALL CRAFT DUE TO OPPOSING WIND WITH GUSTY
CONDS. ADVISORY CONDS FOR THE OUTER WATERS AND GULF STREAM REMAINS
IN PLACE INTO FRI.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

JP/DKW





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271231
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
731 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271231
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
731 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271231
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
731 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271231
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
731 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS
TODAY WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KKEY 271143 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
643 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
THERE WILL BE NO CHANCE OF CLOUDS AFFECTING AVIATION TODAY. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BETWEEN
27/20Z AND 28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED UP TO 5 KFT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 271143 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
643 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
THERE WILL BE NO CHANCE OF CLOUDS AFFECTING AVIATION TODAY. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BETWEEN
27/20Z AND 28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED UP TO 5 KFT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 271143 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
643 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
THERE WILL BE NO CHANCE OF CLOUDS AFFECTING AVIATION TODAY. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BETWEEN
27/20Z AND 28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED UP TO 5 KFT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271143 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
643 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THIS MORNING...AND
THERE WILL BE NO CHANCE OF CLOUDS AFFECTING AVIATION TODAY. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL BETWEEN
27/20Z AND 28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS
ARE EXPECTED UP TO 5 KFT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271003
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271003
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271003
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271003
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271003
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
503 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BASED ON THE CURRENT WIND
AND WAVE FORECASTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KKEY 270857
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE KEYS WITH COOL NORTHERLIES AND CLEARING SKIES IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
MORNING...AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...AND PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER KEYS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...RESPONSIBLE FOR A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING WITH ANOTHER HIGH SPREADING DOWN THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.

FORECAST - THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOSE ALL FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS EXCEPT FOR
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...AS IT IS BRIDGED AND ABSORBED BY THE
CONSOLIDATING HIGH COMPLEX CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST AND GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS WILL LULL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE REINFORCING FRONT AND DAY TIME
WARMING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO NUDGE PAST 70 DEGREES...WHILE DEW POINTS MIX DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCELERATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY COOL
AIR DRAINAGE OFF THE PENINSULA...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE DIRECT LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH THE FRESH MASS OF COOL AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE KEYS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP DOWNWARDS...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S EXPERIENCED IN THE UPPER KEYS.

WINDS WILL AGAIN LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS. THE
COOL DOME OF AIR...MUCH COOLER NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
DAY TIME HIGHS BELOW 70 ON FRIDAY. ALSO...WINDS WILL BEGIN TIPPING
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH COMPLEX CONTINUES SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE WILL
BEGIN AS THE WIND TRAJECTORY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARITIME AND WARMER
IN NATURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS CAN BE EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TODAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS WILL LULL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER WATERS NEAR AND IN THE LEE OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE SCA MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWERED FOR SOME WATERS. WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN A BIT FURTHER LATER ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND BECOME CENTERED CLOSER
TO THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND CLEAR OUR AREA
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTING THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTION BETWEEN 27/20Z AND
28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED UP TO 050 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 27...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1903...THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64F WAS
RECORDED. AND IN 1949...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54F WAS
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  71  58  69  65 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON  70  55  69  64 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270857
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE KEYS WITH COOL NORTHERLIES AND CLEARING SKIES IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
MORNING...AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...AND PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER KEYS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...RESPONSIBLE FOR A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING WITH ANOTHER HIGH SPREADING DOWN THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.

FORECAST - THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOSE ALL FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS EXCEPT FOR
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...AS IT IS BRIDGED AND ABSORBED BY THE
CONSOLIDATING HIGH COMPLEX CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST AND GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS WILL LULL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE REINFORCING FRONT AND DAY TIME
WARMING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO NUDGE PAST 70 DEGREES...WHILE DEW POINTS MIX DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCELERATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY COOL
AIR DRAINAGE OFF THE PENINSULA...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE DIRECT LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH THE FRESH MASS OF COOL AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE KEYS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP DOWNWARDS...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S EXPERIENCED IN THE UPPER KEYS.

WINDS WILL AGAIN LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS. THE
COOL DOME OF AIR...MUCH COOLER NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
DAY TIME HIGHS BELOW 70 ON FRIDAY. ALSO...WINDS WILL BEGIN TIPPING
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH COMPLEX CONTINUES SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE WILL
BEGIN AS THE WIND TRAJECTORY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARITIME AND WARMER
IN NATURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS CAN BE EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TODAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS WILL LULL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER WATERS NEAR AND IN THE LEE OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE SCA MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWERED FOR SOME WATERS. WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN A BIT FURTHER LATER ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND BECOME CENTERED CLOSER
TO THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND CLEAR OUR AREA
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTING THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTION BETWEEN 27/20Z AND
28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED UP TO 050 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 27...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1903...THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64F WAS
RECORDED. AND IN 1949...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54F WAS
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  71  58  69  65 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON  70  55  69  64 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270857
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE KEYS WITH COOL NORTHERLIES AND CLEARING SKIES IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
MORNING...AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...AND PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER KEYS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...RESPONSIBLE FOR A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING WITH ANOTHER HIGH SPREADING DOWN THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.

FORECAST - THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOSE ALL FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS EXCEPT FOR
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...AS IT IS BRIDGED AND ABSORBED BY THE
CONSOLIDATING HIGH COMPLEX CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST AND GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS WILL LULL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE REINFORCING FRONT AND DAY TIME
WARMING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO NUDGE PAST 70 DEGREES...WHILE DEW POINTS MIX DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCELERATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY COOL
AIR DRAINAGE OFF THE PENINSULA...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE DIRECT LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH THE FRESH MASS OF COOL AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE KEYS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP DOWNWARDS...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S EXPERIENCED IN THE UPPER KEYS.

WINDS WILL AGAIN LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS. THE
COOL DOME OF AIR...MUCH COOLER NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
DAY TIME HIGHS BELOW 70 ON FRIDAY. ALSO...WINDS WILL BEGIN TIPPING
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH COMPLEX CONTINUES SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE WILL
BEGIN AS THE WIND TRAJECTORY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARITIME AND WARMER
IN NATURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS CAN BE EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TODAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS WILL LULL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER WATERS NEAR AND IN THE LEE OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE SCA MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWERED FOR SOME WATERS. WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN A BIT FURTHER LATER ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND BECOME CENTERED CLOSER
TO THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND CLEAR OUR AREA
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTING THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTION BETWEEN 27/20Z AND
28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED UP TO 050 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 27...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1903...THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64F WAS
RECORDED. AND IN 1949...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54F WAS
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  71  58  69  65 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON  70  55  69  64 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270857
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE KEYS WITH COOL NORTHERLIES AND CLEARING SKIES IN WAKE OF
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL THIS
MORNING...AND ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER 60S...AND PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER KEYS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...RESPONSIBLE FOR A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...IS IN THE
PROCESS OF CONSOLIDATING WITH ANOTHER HIGH SPREADING DOWN THE PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.

FORECAST - THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOSE ALL FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS EXCEPT FOR
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR...AS IT IS BRIDGED AND ABSORBED BY THE
CONSOLIDATING HIGH COMPLEX CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST AND GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS WILL LULL FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THE REINFORCING FRONT AND DAY TIME
WARMING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO NUDGE PAST 70 DEGREES...WHILE DEW POINTS MIX DOWN
INTO THE MID 40S. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCELERATE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UNITED STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO
CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THE WINDS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY COOL
AIR DRAINAGE OFF THE PENINSULA...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN
THE DIRECT LEE OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH THE FRESH MASS OF COOL AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE KEYS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL TAKE ANOTHER STEP DOWNWARDS...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S EXPERIENCED IN THE UPPER KEYS.

WINDS WILL AGAIN LULL IN THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS. THE
COOL DOME OF AIR...MUCH COOLER NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP
DAY TIME HIGHS BELOW 70 ON FRIDAY. ALSO...WINDS WILL BEGIN TIPPING
NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH COMPLEX CONTINUES SPREADING EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE WILL
BEGIN AS THE WIND TRAJECTORY BECOMES INCREASINGLY MARITIME AND WARMER
IN NATURE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND POPS CAN BE EXPECTED BY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TODAY
INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONSOLIDATES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES AND GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THAT SAID...WINDS WILL LULL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER WATERS NEAR AND IN THE LEE OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE SCA MAY BE BRIEFLY LOWERED FOR SOME WATERS. WINDS
WILL SETTLE DOWN A BIT FURTHER LATER ON FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND BECOME CENTERED CLOSER
TO THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND CLEAR OUR AREA
THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE NOT BEEN AFFECTING THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
BOTH TERMINALS TODAY...WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTION BETWEEN 27/20Z AND
28/02Z...PICKING UP AFTERWARDS. NORTHERLY 20 TO 27 KNOTS WINDS ARE
EXPECTED UP TO 050 THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE...NOVEMBER 27...IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...
IN 1903...THE DAILY RECORD COLD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64F WAS
RECORDED. AND IN 1949...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 54F WAS
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  71  58  69  65 / 0 0 0 0
MARATHON  70  55  69  64 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 270855
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE BIG STORY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY, WEATHER WISE, WILL BE
THE COOLER AIR THAT IS MOVING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO REACH
INTO THE LOW 70S BEFORE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOWS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ALONG THE COASTS, DOWN TO AROUND
40FIN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.

TOMORROW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN, KEEPING THE COOLER
AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH EVEN 70F. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, THE HIGH WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA,
SLOWLY TURNING THE WIND MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME WARMER AIR TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH REMAINS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST UNTIL THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK, THEN WEAKENS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST US BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW OUT OF THE EAST NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE
MAINLAND LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS, IF THEY DEVELOP, COULD MAKE ON SHORE IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW.

OTHERWISE, A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY MARINE CONDITIONS BEING THE CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZARDOUS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS
GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
CONDITIONS AT TIMES TODAY, THE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM MAY CONTINUE TO BUILD SEAS HIGH ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD TO
SMALL CRAFT. ALSO, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. THE
ADVISORY OF THE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE PALM
BEACH COAST IS SET TO EXPIRE LATER THIS MORNING. ANOTHER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  52  68  60 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           70  47  65  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMLB 270837
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
VERY DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH KTBW/KJAX/KTAE RAOBS
MEASURING PWAT VALUES ARND 0.2". HIGH PRES OVER THE GOMEX WILL
GENERATE A STRONG NW FLOW ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/FL PENINSULA WHILE A
SECOND RIDGE DIVING OUT OF THE PLAINS PUSHES A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THRU THE STATE. SFC WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE MID ATLC INTERACTS WITH THE GOMEX RIDGE TO PRODUCE A
TIGHT PGRAD ACRS THE REGION.

DESPITE FULL SUN...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERATED BY THE NW
FLOW WILL KEEP AFTN MAX TEMPS 5-10F BLO AVG WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE M60S ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE L70S ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST. PGRAD WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...ALLOWING THE NW SFC WINDS TO DIMINISH. MEANWHILE...THE
PERSISTENT NW WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY SIG MOISTURE ADVECTION AS
THEY TAP A DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT THAT WILL PUSH MIN TEMPS 10-15F
BLO AVG. W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE READINGS FALL INTO THE
U30S/L40S...WHILE E OF I-95 THE MODIFYING EFFECTS OF THE ATLC WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE L/M40S.

FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE HIGH
POSITION WILL PRODUCE A NORTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY...WITH LITTLE
OCEAN MODIFICATION. MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED COOLER SINCE YESTERDAY
WITH LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH. THE DRYNESS
OF THE AIR WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF CANAVERAL WHERE THE GFS SHOWS SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS.

FRI NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY BACKED TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
BUT FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN OVERALL SLOW MODERATION OF LOW TEMPS. SOME LOWER 40S SHOULD
STILL OCCUR IN LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA BUT MID 40S EXPECTED
OVER THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPE
WILL STAY 50 OR ABOVE.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL ELONGATE SEAWARD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL TO WEAKLY RIDGED. THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHEAST
WINDS SAT TO VEER TO THE EAST ON SUN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SAT WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL
KEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY MENTIONABLE COASTAL
POPS...BUT A LITTLE MORE MARINE STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY.

MON-NEXT THU...STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
OUR NORTH. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TUE WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED SO ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CONSENSUS MOS SHOWS SMALL CHANCES FROM MON-WED
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT MENTION THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WINDS: THRU 27/16Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS. BTWN 27/16Z-27/23Z...NW
12-15KTS WITH G18-22KTS. AFT 27/23Z...W/NW 5-8KTS.

CIGS/VSBYS: THRU 28/12Z...VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TODAY AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE LCL ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE WED
FROPA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW SFC/BNDRY LYR BREEZE WILL FRESHEN TO
15-20KTS NEARSHORE AND 20-25KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NWD...6-8FT ELSEWHERE. SEAS
BCMG TREACHEROUS AFT SUNSET AS DOMINANT PDS SHORTEN FROM ARND 9SEC
TO 6-7SEC DUE TO THE OPPOSING NRLY WIND/SRLY GULF STREAM.

FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION...SO WILL
EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH 4 PM.

WEEKEND-MON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE TO
NORTH FLORIDA OR SOUTH GEORGIA. THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE AXIS
TO THE LOCAL WATERS LOOKS TO BE ON SAT...SO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST.
THEN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO OSCILLATE
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD ON MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  43  61  44 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  67  39  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  68  42  65  48 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  70  42  67  51 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  65  37  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  66  39  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  66  39  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  70  43  67  50 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270837
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
VERY DRY POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH KTBW/KJAX/KTAE RAOBS
MEASURING PWAT VALUES ARND 0.2". HIGH PRES OVER THE GOMEX WILL
GENERATE A STRONG NW FLOW ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH/FL PENINSULA WHILE A
SECOND RIDGE DIVING OUT OF THE PLAINS PUSHES A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THRU THE STATE. SFC WINDS WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE MID ATLC INTERACTS WITH THE GOMEX RIDGE TO PRODUCE A
TIGHT PGRAD ACRS THE REGION.

DESPITE FULL SUN...THE COLD AIR ADVECTION GENERATED BY THE NW
FLOW WILL KEEP AFTN MAX TEMPS 5-10F BLO AVG WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE M60S ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE L70S ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST. PGRAD WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT...ALLOWING THE NW SFC WINDS TO DIMINISH. MEANWHILE...THE
PERSISTENT NW WINDS WILL PREVENT ANY SIG MOISTURE ADVECTION AS
THEY TAP A DRY/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
A STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT THAT WILL PUSH MIN TEMPS 10-15F
BLO AVG. W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WILL SEE READINGS FALL INTO THE
U30S/L40S...WHILE E OF I-95 THE MODIFYING EFFECTS OF THE ATLC WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE L/M40S.

FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE HIGH
POSITION WILL PRODUCE A NORTHERLY WIND TRAJECTORY...WITH LITTLE
OCEAN MODIFICATION. MAX TEMPS HAVE TRENDED COOLER SINCE YESTERDAY
WITH LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH. THE DRYNESS
OF THE AIR WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST
SOUTH OF CANAVERAL WHERE THE GFS SHOWS SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS.

FRI NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY BACKED TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
BUT FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BECOME NORTHEAST. THIS WILL CAUSE
AN OVERALL SLOW MODERATION OF LOW TEMPS. SOME LOWER 40S SHOULD
STILL OCCUR IN LAKE AND NORTHWEST VOLUSIA BUT MID 40S EXPECTED
OVER THE REST OF THE INTERIOR. COASTAL SECTIONS SOUTH OF THE CAPE
WILL STAY 50 OR ABOVE.

WEEKEND...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL ELONGATE SEAWARD AS FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL TO WEAKLY RIDGED. THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHEAST
WINDS SAT TO VEER TO THE EAST ON SUN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SAT WILL
MODERATE CLOSE TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL
KEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY MENTIONABLE COASTAL
POPS...BUT A LITTLE MORE MARINE STRATOCUMULUS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY.

MON-NEXT THU...STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH AND THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
OUR NORTH. ONSHORE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE
ABOVE NORMAL. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TUE WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BUT OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED SO ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
SHOWER ACTIVITY. CONSENSUS MOS SHOWS SMALL CHANCES FROM MON-WED
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT MENTION THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WINDS: THRU 27/16Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS. BTWN 27/16Z-27/23Z...NW
12-15KTS WITH G18-22KTS. AFT 27/23Z...W/NW 5-8KTS.

CIGS/VSBYS: THRU 28/12Z...VFR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TODAY AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACRS THE LCL ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE WED
FROPA. GENTLE TO MODERATE NW SFC/BNDRY LYR BREEZE WILL FRESHEN TO
15-20KTS NEARSHORE AND 20-25KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NWD...6-8FT ELSEWHERE. SEAS
BCMG TREACHEROUS AFT SUNSET AS DOMINANT PDS SHORTEN FROM ARND 9SEC
TO 6-7SEC DUE TO THE OPPOSING NRLY WIND/SRLY GULF STREAM.

FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION...SO WILL
EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE GULF STREAM THROUGH 4 PM.

WEEKEND-MON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE TO
NORTH FLORIDA OR SOUTH GEORGIA. THE CLOSEST APPROACH OF THE AXIS
TO THE LOCAL WATERS LOOKS TO BE ON SAT...SO NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD
EASE...ESPECIALLY NORTH WHERE SPEEDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST.
THEN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO OSCILLATE
SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE NORTH...INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WATERS FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD ON MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  43  61  44 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  67  39  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  68  42  65  48 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  70  42  67  51 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  65  37  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  66  39  63  45 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  66  39  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  70  43  67  50 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO THE EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOST OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS NOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR
EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOW PASSING OUR
LONGITUDE PUSHING THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FURTHER TO OUR
EAST WITH TIME. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ONE FINAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS CLEARLY VISIBLE IN WV
IMAGERY AS IT ROUNDS THE TROUGH BASE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THIS
IMPULSE WILL PROPEL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
AND FL PENINSULA TODAY.

WE SAW AN INCREDIBLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE
26/12Z KTBW SOUNDING WHICH HAD A PW VALUE OVER 1.8"...TO THE
27/00Z SOUNDING WHERE THE PW VALUE HAD DROPPED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
0.17". HUGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 40C WERE SAMPLED FROM
ALMOST THE SURFACE UP TO NEARLY 300MB. THIS 0.17" PW VALUE IS NEAR
(WITHIN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AN ALL TIME LOW FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. IN FACT...IT IS A RARE OCCASION THAT WE SEE PW VALUES
LOWER THAN THIS AT ANY TIME OF YEAR. THE ONLY CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF
THIS EARLY AM ARE SOME VERY THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WITHIN THE RRQ OF AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THIS
DISCUSSION WAS PASSING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON ITS WAY TOWARD
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S NORTH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE OF A TEMPERATURE DROP OVER
THESE COOLER NATURE COAST ZONES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE COMING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY
WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAKES A DRY PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND A QUICK INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. THOSE WITH PLANS NEAR THE BEACH
SHOULD EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE HOISTED AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE BEACHES OF PINELLAS...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES. DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE SEASONABLE WITH 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70S SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPING GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL TURN MUCH COOLER THIS
EVENING AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET.

TONIGHT...
A CHILLY NIGHT SETTING UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL
KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT AND AT LEAST SOME WIND BLOWING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST HIGH POSITION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DECOUPLE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FOR EVEN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. WITH
THIS IN MIND...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
TONIGHT...BUT RATHER WILL BE LOOKING AT AN ADVECTION/DRAINAGE EVENT
FROM THE NORTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MOS IS BIASED TOO COLD FOR
ADVECTION NIGHT...AND KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE THE MOS ENSEMBLES
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTS IN LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
AROUND 32 OVER INLAND LEVY COUNTY...TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS UNDER
NORTHEAST FLOW SUCH AS PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE SANIBEL REGION WILL
STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. IF THINGS WORK OUT THIS WAY THEN
FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE NECESSARY...HOWEVER IT IS A CLOSE CALL
UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH
FUTURE GUIDANCE RUNS. DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WHERE TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S ARE
FORECAST. CONDITIONS ARE EVEN BORDERLINE FOR FROST WITH A LIGHT WIND
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5 DEGREES LATE AT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A
FEW MORE SHELTERED AREA COULD STILL REALIZE A TOUCH OF FROST TOWARD
DAWN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE
30S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 20S FOR THE NATURE
COAST.

FRIDAY..
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FURTHER FLATTEN OUT OVERHEAD. FRIDAY
IS LOOKING TO BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING BY MID AFTERNOON TO AROUND 60 FOR CHIEFLAND...LOWER 60S
ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND MID/UPPER 60S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND A BIT LESS WIND
TO HELP THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE FEEL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.

HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE U.S ROCKIES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND A TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THE SURFACE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH TIME THE CANADIAN TROUGH ROTATES DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE MEXICAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKS EAST. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SLIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD...STRUNG OUT FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINALLY FROM THE GULF TO
THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK THROUGH THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK THE PLAINS HIGH MOVES EAST...BRIDGING THE BY NOW
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND REINFORCING THE RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC.

THE UPPER RIDGING MOVING BY WILL BE THE DOMINATE FACTOR WITH A
DRY AIRMASS KEEPING THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL GRADUALLY WARM TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY
WINDS...ROBUST AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE FORCE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUAL
SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO FROM AN OFFSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A DRY PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO APPROACH OR BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY ALL BELOW 27 WHICH WILL KEEP RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING ACHIEVED BOTH DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  42  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  72  44  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  68  40  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  43  65  48 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  34  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  48  62  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 270835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS CONSISTING OF LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...AND DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO THE EAST
OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOST OF THE INCLEMENT WEATHER ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS EASTERN CONUS TROUGH IS NOW OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR
EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND AREA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOW PASSING OUR
LONGITUDE PUSHING THE PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FURTHER TO OUR
EAST WITH TIME. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE/DRYING HAS NOW OVERSPREAD THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ONE FINAL
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TO IMPACT OUR REGION IS CLEARLY VISIBLE IN WV
IMAGERY AS IT ROUNDS THE TROUGH BASE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. THIS
IMPULSE WILL PROPEL A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
AND FL PENINSULA TODAY.

WE SAW AN INCREDIBLE DRYING OF THE COLUMN ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE
26/12Z KTBW SOUNDING WHICH HAD A PW VALUE OVER 1.8"...TO THE
27/00Z SOUNDING WHERE THE PW VALUE HAD DROPPED ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
0.17". HUGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS GREATER THAN 40C WERE SAMPLED FROM
ALMOST THE SURFACE UP TO NEARLY 300MB. THIS 0.17" PW VALUE IS NEAR
(WITHIN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) AN ALL TIME LOW FOR LATE
NOVEMBER. IN FACT...IT IS A RARE OCCASION THAT WE SEE PW VALUES
LOWER THAN THIS AT ANY TIME OF YEAR. THE ONLY CLOUDS TO SPEAK OF
THIS EARLY AM ARE SOME VERY THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WITHIN THE RRQ OF AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THIS
DISCUSSION WAS PASSING INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON ITS WAY TOWARD
OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S NORTH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE OF A TEMPERATURE DROP OVER
THESE COOLER NATURE COAST ZONES AS THE THERMAL RIDGE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT BEGINS TO ARRIVE IN THE COMING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TODAY...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY
WHILE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MAKES A DRY PASSAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. GENERALLY SPEAKING THIS FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT...AND A QUICK INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND ALONG THE COAST. THOSE WITH PLANS NEAR THE BEACH
SHOULD EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE HOISTED AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO THIS INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW FOR THE BEACHES OF PINELLAS...MANATEE...AND SARASOTA
COUNTIES. DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE SEASONABLE WITH 60S NORTH AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70S SOUTH. THE
DEVELOPING GUSTY WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL TURN MUCH COOLER THIS
EVENING AS THE SUN BEGINS TO SET.

TONIGHT...
A CHILLY NIGHT SETTING UP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL STILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL
KEEP THE GRADIENT TIGHT AND AT LEAST SOME WIND BLOWING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WITH THE FORECAST HIGH POSITION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DECOUPLE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FOR EVEN OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. WITH
THIS IN MIND...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR
TONIGHT...BUT RATHER WILL BE LOOKING AT AN ADVECTION/DRAINAGE EVENT
FROM THE NORTH. GENERALLY SPEAKING THE MOS IS BIASED TOO COLD FOR
ADVECTION NIGHT...AND KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST ABOVE THE MOS ENSEMBLES
FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTS IN LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
AROUND 32 OVER INLAND LEVY COUNTY...TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S
FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD. NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS UNDER
NORTHEAST FLOW SUCH AS PINELLAS COUNTY AND THE SANIBEL REGION WILL
STAY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. IF THINGS WORK OUT THIS WAY THEN
FREEZE PRODUCTS WILL NOT BE NECESSARY...HOWEVER IT IS A CLOSE CALL
UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH
FUTURE GUIDANCE RUNS. DID INCLUDE A MENTION OF PATCHY FROST FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST WHERE TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 30S ARE
FORECAST. CONDITIONS ARE EVEN BORDERLINE FOR FROST WITH A LIGHT WIND
AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 3-5 DEGREES LATE AT NIGHT. HOWEVER...A
FEW MORE SHELTERED AREA COULD STILL REALIZE A TOUCH OF FROST TOWARD
DAWN. WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE
30S EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND EVEN SOME UPPER 20S FOR THE NATURE
COAST.

FRIDAY..
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FURTHER FLATTEN OUT OVERHEAD. FRIDAY
IS LOOKING TO BE A DRY AND COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING BY MID AFTERNOON TO AROUND 60 FOR CHIEFLAND...LOWER 60S
ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND MID/UPPER 60S DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS.
HOWEVER...SHOULD BE LOOKING AT LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND A BIT LESS WIND
TO HELP THE OVERALL TEMPERATURE FEEL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.

HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE U.S ROCKIES...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND A TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THE SURFACE
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

WITH TIME THE CANADIAN TROUGH ROTATES DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST THEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE MEXICAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRACKS EAST. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SLIDES
ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD...STRUNG OUT FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINALLY FROM THE GULF TO
THE GREAT LAKES TRACKS OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK THROUGH THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. DURING THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK THE PLAINS HIGH MOVES EAST...BRIDGING THE BY NOW
DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND REINFORCING THE RIDGE FROM THE
ATLANTIC.

THE UPPER RIDGING MOVING BY WILL BE THE DOMINATE FACTOR WITH A
DRY AIRMASS KEEPING THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY
NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL GRADUALLY WARM TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR NORTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY
WINDS...ROBUST AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO
ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW WIND GUST APPROACHING GALE FORCE CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT AS WELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUAL
SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION.
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND KEEP WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO FROM AN OFFSHORE EAST TO NORTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A DRY PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO APPROACH OR BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ERC VALUES ARE CURRENTLY ALL BELOW 27 WHICH WILL KEEP RED FLAG
CONDITIONS FROM BEING ACHIEVED BOTH DAYS.

NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION THE NEXT COUPLE
OF NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  42  63  47 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  72  44  68  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  68  40  64  47 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  43  65  48 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  66  34  61  39 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  66  48  62  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
     1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE





000
FXUS62 KTAE 270823
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
323 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

We continue to see a highly amplified pattern across North America
this Thanksgiving morning with a trough over the east and a ridge
out west. The good news is that the trough is finally beginning to
lift out. At the surface, another cold front (a dry one this time)
will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the region. Daytime
highs, despite full sunshine, will only range from the mid 50s for
areas north of a ABY-DHN line to the lower 60s across the southern
FL Big Bend. This is 10-12 degrees below normal. These cool temps
will be made to feel even more brisk with the addition of some gusty
northwest winds.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will move
east over the western Atlantic with deep layer ridging gradually
building in over the local region. The position of the surface high
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley by daybreak Friday.
Overnight winds will be light from the north but we still should
see a light freeze across most inland areas. Highs will remain below
average Friday (mid to upper 50s). Another light freeze is possible
Friday night, mainly along and east of the river. With rising
heights as the upper ridge builds in, temps will be warmer on
Saturday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The deep layer ridge will hold through Sunday then move east with
the upper flow becoming nearly zonal through the remainder of the
period. The next cold front will approach late Thursday but any rain
with this system should hod off until Thursday night or Friday.
Highs will be seasonal in the lower 70s with lows in the gradually
moderating from the lower to mid 40s Saturday night to the lower
50s by Wednesday night.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail
through the period. The only impact to aviation weather will be
gusty northwest winds during the daylight hours. Gusts will be up
around 20 mph.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level conditions will continue across the marine area
through late morning with cautionary conditions this afternoon.
Winds and seas are expected to increase to advisory levels once
again after midnight diminishing below headline criteria Friday
afternoon. Low winds and seas are forecast for this weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air has finally arrived
today and will remain in place for several days. The driest day will
be Friday. However, winds will not be high enough to achieve red
flag criteria on that day. Additionally, fuel moisture is high after
several days of rain. High dispersion indices are expected once
again today with values around 75 across parts of Southeast AL and
inland portions of the central and eastern FL Big Bend.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  32  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   60  39  56  41  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        56  32  55  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        57  30  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      58  31  56  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    62  32  58  31  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  63  39  57  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270823
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
323 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

We continue to see a highly amplified pattern across North America
this Thanksgiving morning with a trough over the east and a ridge
out west. The good news is that the trough is finally beginning to
lift out. At the surface, another cold front (a dry one this time)
will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air to the region. Daytime
highs, despite full sunshine, will only range from the mid 50s for
areas north of a ABY-DHN line to the lower 60s across the southern
FL Big Bend. This is 10-12 degrees below normal. These cool temps
will be made to feel even more brisk with the addition of some gusty
northwest winds.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will move
east over the western Atlantic with deep layer ridging gradually
building in over the local region. The position of the surface high
will be centered over the Tennessee Valley by daybreak Friday.
Overnight winds will be light from the north but we still should
see a light freeze across most inland areas. Highs will remain below
average Friday (mid to upper 50s). Another light freeze is possible
Friday night, mainly along and east of the river. With rising
heights as the upper ridge builds in, temps will be warmer on
Saturday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The deep layer ridge will hold through Sunday then move east with
the upper flow becoming nearly zonal through the remainder of the
period. The next cold front will approach late Thursday but any rain
with this system should hod off until Thursday night or Friday.
Highs will be seasonal in the lower 70s with lows in the gradually
moderating from the lower to mid 40s Saturday night to the lower
50s by Wednesday night.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail
through the period. The only impact to aviation weather will be
gusty northwest winds during the daylight hours. Gusts will be up
around 20 mph.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level conditions will continue across the marine area
through late morning with cautionary conditions this afternoon.
Winds and seas are expected to increase to advisory levels once
again after midnight diminishing below headline criteria Friday
afternoon. Low winds and seas are forecast for this weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air has finally arrived
today and will remain in place for several days. The driest day will
be Friday. However, winds will not be high enough to achieve red
flag criteria on that day. Additionally, fuel moisture is high after
several days of rain. High dispersion indices are expected once
again today with values around 75 across parts of Southeast AL and
inland portions of the central and eastern FL Big Bend.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  32  57  30  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   60  39  56  41  67 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        56  32  55  35  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        57  30  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      58  31  56  31  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    62  32  58  31  68 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  63  39  57  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KJAX 270643
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
143 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA. A DRY COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW...BUT
WITH LITTLE/NO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...JUST A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 FOR SE GA...AND LOWER/MID 60S FOR NE FL.

CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. A LIGHT FREEZE IS BECOMING MORE OF
A LIKELYHOOD FOR ALL INLAND AREAS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FROST. THUS
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH TNGT FOR ALL OF NE FL EXCEPT SAINT
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES...WITH 3-6 HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
LIKELY. THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE COOL SPELL WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SE GA
AND NE FL...WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...WITH
READINGS NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A STRONGER HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH WINDS 1000-2000 FEET ABOVE
THE SURFACE MAXIMIZING LATE TNGT...ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...WILL
USE LLWS FOR ALL PORTS UNTIL THE MID/LATE MORNING SURFACE WIND
INCREASE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT BUOY 41008 WITH SPEEDS
REACHING CAUTION ONCE AGAIN. THIS WIND SURGE WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CAUTION FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BENIGN
CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY AND
SIDESHORE FLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  32  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  60  38  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  61  33  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  38  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  63  33  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  65  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KJAX 270643
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
143 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA. A DRY COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW...BUT
WITH LITTLE/NO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...JUST A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 FOR SE GA...AND LOWER/MID 60S FOR NE FL.

CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. A LIGHT FREEZE IS BECOMING MORE OF
A LIKELYHOOD FOR ALL INLAND AREAS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FROST. THUS
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH TNGT FOR ALL OF NE FL EXCEPT SAINT
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES...WITH 3-6 HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
LIKELY. THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE COOL SPELL WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SE GA
AND NE FL...WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...WITH
READINGS NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A STRONGER HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH WINDS 1000-2000 FEET ABOVE
THE SURFACE MAXIMIZING LATE TNGT...ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...WILL
USE LLWS FOR ALL PORTS UNTIL THE MID/LATE MORNING SURFACE WIND
INCREASE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT BUOY 41008 WITH SPEEDS
REACHING CAUTION ONCE AGAIN. THIS WIND SURGE WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CAUTION FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BENIGN
CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY AND
SIDESHORE FLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  32  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  60  38  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  61  33  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  38  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  63  33  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  65  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KJAX 270643
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
143 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA. A DRY COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW...BUT
WITH LITTLE/NO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...JUST A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 FOR SE GA...AND LOWER/MID 60S FOR NE FL.

CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. A LIGHT FREEZE IS BECOMING MORE OF
A LIKELYHOOD FOR ALL INLAND AREAS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FROST. THUS
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH TNGT FOR ALL OF NE FL EXCEPT SAINT
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES...WITH 3-6 HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
LIKELY. THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE COOL SPELL WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SE GA
AND NE FL...WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...WITH
READINGS NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A STRONGER HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH WINDS 1000-2000 FEET ABOVE
THE SURFACE MAXIMIZING LATE TNGT...ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...WILL
USE LLWS FOR ALL PORTS UNTIL THE MID/LATE MORNING SURFACE WIND
INCREASE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT BUOY 41008 WITH SPEEDS
REACHING CAUTION ONCE AGAIN. THIS WIND SURGE WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CAUTION FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BENIGN
CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY AND
SIDESHORE FLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  32  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  60  38  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  61  33  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  38  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  63  33  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  65  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KJAX 270643
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
143 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING ACROSS
THE FL PENINSULA. A DRY COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW...BUT
WITH LITTLE/NO DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...JUST A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS...WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST...BUT SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 FOR SE GA...AND LOWER/MID 60S FOR NE FL.

CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. A LIGHT FREEZE IS BECOMING MORE OF
A LIKELYHOOD FOR ALL INLAND AREAS ALONG WITH AREAS OF FROST. THUS
WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH TNGT FOR ALL OF NE FL EXCEPT SAINT
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTIES...WITH 3-6 HOURS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES
LIKELY. THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THE COOL SPELL WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY
DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FOR SE GA
AND NE FL...WITH TEMPS AROUND 60 FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING. SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AGAIN...WITH
READINGS NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A STRONGER HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH WINDS 1000-2000 FEET ABOVE
THE SURFACE MAXIMIZING LATE TNGT...ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...WILL
USE LLWS FOR ALL PORTS UNTIL THE MID/LATE MORNING SURFACE WIND
INCREASE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN AT BUOY 41008 WITH SPEEDS
REACHING CAUTION ONCE AGAIN. THIS WIND SURGE WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS THIS MORNING...THUS WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CAUTION FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BENIGN
CONDITIONS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY AND
SIDESHORE FLOW FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  32  55  31 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  60  38  56  38 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  61  33  57  36 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  38  57  43 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  63  33  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  65  33  60  37 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KMFL 270536
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1236 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...

TARDY ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ACTUALLY GENERATED A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH BROWARD/MIAMI DADE AROUND
0Z. DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH MIA DOWN TO 45F CURRENTLY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A COOL START TO THANKSGIVING, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LAMP GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTED MIN TEMPS BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO PROMPT A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO,
AHEAD OF A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL AS THE MVFR CIGS HAVE EXITED OFF THE
SE FLORIDA COAST AS A DRY, COOL AIRMASS SWEEPS IN ON N-NW WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SUNNY
SKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES BY TOMORROW. COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE FROM THIS POINT ON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ALONG ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST MAINLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL.

MARINE... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SEAS ABOVE 7 FT
ACROSS GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS
ALSO. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW ALSO. SO SCA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER BURST OF
WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA BEING EXTENDED FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THAT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY LATER ON. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS AS FLOW TURNS
MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  53  68  60 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           71  48  67  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 270536
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1236 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT/BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DUE AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. SO NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS DURING THE DAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...

TARDY ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ACTUALLY GENERATED A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH BROWARD/MIAMI DADE AROUND
0Z. DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH MIA DOWN TO 45F CURRENTLY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A COOL START TO THANKSGIVING, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LAMP GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTED MIN TEMPS BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO PROMPT A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO,
AHEAD OF A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL AS THE MVFR CIGS HAVE EXITED OFF THE
SE FLORIDA COAST AS A DRY, COOL AIRMASS SWEEPS IN ON N-NW WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SUNNY
SKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES BY TOMORROW. COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE FROM THIS POINT ON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ALONG ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST MAINLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL.

MARINE... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SEAS ABOVE 7 FT
ACROSS GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS
ALSO. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW ALSO. SO SCA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER BURST OF
WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA BEING EXTENDED FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THAT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY LATER ON. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS AS FLOW TURNS
MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  53  68  60 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  55  70  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            73  54  70  61 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           71  48  67  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270237
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND ONLY JUST A FEW
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AREA-
WIDE EXCEPT IN THE 50S CLOSER TO THE WATER. THE FORECAST IS STILL
ON TRACK FOR A REINFORCING DRY FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RECENT COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN INCREASING ON THANKSGIVING
DAY AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND
INCREASE NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN NEAR SCA CRITERIA AND BUILDING
SEAS TO 6 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON FRIDAY. ON THE WEEKEND
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND LIGHTEN AGAIN TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  49  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  68  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  46  70  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  35  66  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  66  49  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KTBW 270237
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND ONLY JUST A FEW
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AREA-
WIDE EXCEPT IN THE 50S CLOSER TO THE WATER. THE FORECAST IS STILL
ON TRACK FOR A REINFORCING DRY FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RECENT COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN INCREASING ON THANKSGIVING
DAY AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND
INCREASE NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN NEAR SCA CRITERIA AND BUILDING
SEAS TO 6 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON FRIDAY. ON THE WEEKEND
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND LIGHTEN AGAIN TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  49  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  68  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  46  70  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  35  66  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  66  49  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KTBW 270237
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND ONLY JUST A FEW
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AREA-
WIDE EXCEPT IN THE 50S CLOSER TO THE WATER. THE FORECAST IS STILL
ON TRACK FOR A REINFORCING DRY FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RECENT COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN INCREASING ON THANKSGIVING
DAY AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND
INCREASE NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN NEAR SCA CRITERIA AND BUILDING
SEAS TO 6 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON FRIDAY. ON THE WEEKEND
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND LIGHTEN AGAIN TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  49  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  68  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  46  70  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  35  66  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  66  49  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KTBW 270237
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT HAS PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF FLORIDA AND ONLY JUST A FEW
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
SPILL INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AREA-
WIDE EXCEPT IN THE 50S CLOSER TO THE WATER. THE FORECAST IS STILL
ON TRACK FOR A REINFORCING DRY FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RECENT COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS OVERNIGHT...BUT THEN INCREASING ON THANKSGIVING
DAY AS ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND
INCREASE NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN NEAR SCA CRITERIA AND BUILDING
SEAS TO 6 FEET OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON FRIDAY. ON THE WEEKEND
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY AND LIGHTEN AGAIN TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  49  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  68  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  46  70  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  35  66  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  66  49  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KMFL 270232
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
932 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

TARDY ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE WELL BEHIND THE FRONT
ACTUALLY GENERATED A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH BROWARD/MIAMI DADE AROUND
0Z. DEWPOINTS PLUMMETING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH MIA DOWN TO 45F CURRENTLY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A COOL START TO THANKSGIVING, WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LAMP GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN FORECASTED MIN TEMPS BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO PROMPT A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO,
AHEAD OF A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL AS THE MVFR CIGS HAVE EXITED OFF THE
SE FLORIDA COAST AS A DRY, COOL AIRMASS SWEEPS IN ON N-NW WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SUNNY
SKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES BY TOMORROW. COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE FROM THIS POINT ON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ALONG ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST MAINLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL.

MARINE... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SEAS ABOVE 7 FT
ACROSS GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS
ALSO. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW ALSO. SO SCA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER BURST OF
WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA BEING EXTENDED FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THAT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY LATER ON. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS AS FLOW TURNS
MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  52  72  53  68 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  54  73  55  70 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            56  73  54  70 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           49  71  48  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....52/PS
UPDATE.......21/KM




000
FXUS62 KKEY 270227
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOWER CLOUD OVERCAST HAS DEPARTED WHILE MID ALTITUDE SCATTERED
CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS. COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A FEW
SPRINKLES CONTINUES OVER THE STRAITS OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS AT THE PRESENT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 1027 MB WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING
PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 40S...THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ARE
ALL THE STRONG JET TO THE NORTH CAN SUPPORT.

THE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATED MODIFIED CONTINENTAL COLD AIR DEPTH
OVER 4000 FEET THICK AT THE PRESENT TIME.

.SHORT TERM...
A MINOR PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE IS PENDING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
STEADY SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTH FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WHILE WINDS
OVER THE KEYS HAVE SETTLED TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 20 MPH AT
PRESENT...SOME INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF
SHORES OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE GULF AND FLORIDA BAY WATERS. SOME DAMPENING OF THE WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF AND BAY
WATERS...BEFORE INCREASING BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
REINFORCED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FRESH TO STRONG EAST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
...26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE... NOW THAT CIGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE MVFR
CATEGORY...CONTINUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS... AS
BY 12Z...MODEL SOUNDING SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND
RUNWAYS MAKING APPROACH AND DEPARTURE ROUTES TROUBLESOME. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMAL HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY 23 TO 27 KNOT
WINDS EXPECTED UP TO 5KFT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270227
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOWER CLOUD OVERCAST HAS DEPARTED WHILE MID ALTITUDE SCATTERED
CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS. COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A FEW
SPRINKLES CONTINUES OVER THE STRAITS OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS AT THE PRESENT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 1027 MB WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING
PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 40S...THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ARE
ALL THE STRONG JET TO THE NORTH CAN SUPPORT.

THE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATED MODIFIED CONTINENTAL COLD AIR DEPTH
OVER 4000 FEET THICK AT THE PRESENT TIME.

.SHORT TERM...
A MINOR PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE IS PENDING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
STEADY SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTH FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WHILE WINDS
OVER THE KEYS HAVE SETTLED TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 20 MPH AT
PRESENT...SOME INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF
SHORES OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE GULF AND FLORIDA BAY WATERS. SOME DAMPENING OF THE WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF AND BAY
WATERS...BEFORE INCREASING BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
REINFORCED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FRESH TO STRONG EAST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
...26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE... NOW THAT CIGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE MVFR
CATEGORY...CONTINUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS... AS
BY 12Z...MODEL SOUNDING SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND
RUNWAYS MAKING APPROACH AND DEPARTURE ROUTES TROUBLESOME. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMAL HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY 23 TO 27 KNOT
WINDS EXPECTED UP TO 5KFT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270227
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOWER CLOUD OVERCAST HAS DEPARTED WHILE MID ALTITUDE SCATTERED
CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS. COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A FEW
SPRINKLES CONTINUES OVER THE STRAITS OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS AT THE PRESENT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 1027 MB WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING
PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 40S...THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ARE
ALL THE STRONG JET TO THE NORTH CAN SUPPORT.

THE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATED MODIFIED CONTINENTAL COLD AIR DEPTH
OVER 4000 FEET THICK AT THE PRESENT TIME.

.SHORT TERM...
A MINOR PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE IS PENDING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
STEADY SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTH FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WHILE WINDS
OVER THE KEYS HAVE SETTLED TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 20 MPH AT
PRESENT...SOME INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF
SHORES OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE GULF AND FLORIDA BAY WATERS. SOME DAMPENING OF THE WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF AND BAY
WATERS...BEFORE INCREASING BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
REINFORCED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FRESH TO STRONG EAST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
...26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE... NOW THAT CIGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE MVFR
CATEGORY...CONTINUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS... AS
BY 12Z...MODEL SOUNDING SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND
RUNWAYS MAKING APPROACH AND DEPARTURE ROUTES TROUBLESOME. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMAL HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY 23 TO 27 KNOT
WINDS EXPECTED UP TO 5KFT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......MP

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270227
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE LOWER CLOUD OVERCAST HAS DEPARTED WHILE MID ALTITUDE SCATTERED
CLOUD COVERAGE REMAINS. COOL AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS NEAR 20 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH. A FEW
SPRINKLES CONTINUES OVER THE STRAITS OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS AT THE PRESENT TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 1027 MB WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING THROUGH THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST...HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS HAVING
PLUMMETED INTO THE MID 40S...THE SCATTERED CLOUDS AND SPRINKLES ARE
ALL THE STRONG JET TO THE NORTH CAN SUPPORT.

THE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATED MODIFIED CONTINENTAL COLD AIR DEPTH
OVER 4000 FEET THICK AT THE PRESENT TIME.

.SHORT TERM...
A MINOR PUBLIC FORECAST UPDATE IS PENDING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE
STEADY SCATTERED ALTOCUMULUS COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH COLD AIR
SURGING SOUTH FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. WHILE WINDS
OVER THE KEYS HAVE SETTLED TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 20 MPH AT
PRESENT...SOME INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF
SHORES OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY OVER THE
NEARSHORE GULF AND FLORIDA BAY WATERS. SOME DAMPENING OF THE WINDS IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF AND BAY
WATERS...BEFORE INCREASING BRIEFLY TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING
REINFORCED ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FRESH TO STRONG EAST
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
...26/00Z TAF ISSUANCE... NOW THAT CIGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE THE MVFR
CATEGORY...CONTINUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS... AS
BY 12Z...MODEL SOUNDING SHOW DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND
RUNWAYS MAKING APPROACH AND DEPARTURE ROUTES TROUBLESOME. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMAL HOWEVER...WITH NORTHERLY 23 TO 27 KNOT
WINDS EXPECTED UP TO 5KFT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........JR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......MP

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 270159
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE SE
STATES WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE TN VALLEY HEADING EWD. AN
ASSOCD DRY COLD FRONT FROM ERN TN TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS FCST TO
MOVE ESE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 4-5 AM AND SE
ZONES BY ABOUT 9 AM THU. TONIGHTS TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S
MOST LOCATIONS AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL REST OF TONIGHT DUE TO
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. NONETHELESS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN NOTED TO
DROP OFF QUITE FAST (COUPLE OF RECENT REPORTS IN NE FL OF UPPER 30S
AT 845 PM) AND HAVE NUDGED MIN TEMPS DOWN A BIT...MAINLY IN THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA SWD WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER. THERE IS
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WHERE
TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT AROUND THE MID 30S...BUT FELT THE CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO THE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WINDS AROUND 1000-2000 FT FCST TO INCREASE TO 25-35
KT...POSSIBLY POCKET OF 40 KT AT 2000 FT OVER SE GA AROUND THE
09Z-14Z TIME FRAME SO INSERTED LLWS DURING THIS TIME FOR ALL TAFS.
WEAK WSW TO SW WIND 5-10 KT EARLY THU WILL PICKUP TO NEAR NW15G25KT
BY 14Z-16Z AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDS AND INITIALLY LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OFFSHORE WATERS THU WITH SCA IN AFFECT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK LIKELY ON THU DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW
SWELL HEIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  38  58  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  43  61  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  39  61  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  43  62  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  37  63  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  37  64  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHASHY/WOLF/WALKER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 270159
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE SE
STATES WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE TN VALLEY HEADING EWD. AN
ASSOCD DRY COLD FRONT FROM ERN TN TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS FCST TO
MOVE ESE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 4-5 AM AND SE
ZONES BY ABOUT 9 AM THU. TONIGHTS TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S
MOST LOCATIONS AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL REST OF TONIGHT DUE TO
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS AND A WEAK LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. NONETHELESS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN NOTED TO
DROP OFF QUITE FAST (COUPLE OF RECENT REPORTS IN NE FL OF UPPER 30S
AT 845 PM) AND HAVE NUDGED MIN TEMPS DOWN A BIT...MAINLY IN THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA SWD WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER. THERE IS
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WHERE
TEMPS MAY BOTTOM OUT AROUND THE MID 30S...BUT FELT THE CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO THE FCST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WINDS AROUND 1000-2000 FT FCST TO INCREASE TO 25-35
KT...POSSIBLY POCKET OF 40 KT AT 2000 FT OVER SE GA AROUND THE
09Z-14Z TIME FRAME SO INSERTED LLWS DURING THIS TIME FOR ALL TAFS.
WEAK WSW TO SW WIND 5-10 KT EARLY THU WILL PICKUP TO NEAR NW15G25KT
BY 14Z-16Z AFTER DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OTHER THAN TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CONDS AND INITIALLY LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OFFSHORE WATERS THU WITH SCA IN AFFECT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK LIKELY ON THU DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW
SWELL HEIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  38  58  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  43  61  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  39  61  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  43  62  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  37  63  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  37  64  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHASHY/WOLF/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 270155
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
855 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...CLEARING TONIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING...

.UPDATE...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WITH NW LOW LVL WINDS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE IN TWD LAKE COUNTY FROM THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. SOME UPPER
LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS SRN AREAS THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. NW WINDS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND
5 MPH MOST AREAS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CWA INCLUDING METRO ORLANDO TO SRN BREVARD COUNTY. MADE SOME
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS. ZFP FCST UPDATE WILL REFINE
SKIES...WITH CLEAR OR BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...A COOL/DRY START TO THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NEAR SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BRISK
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S WITH 70 DEGREES WITHIN
REACH TREASURE COAST/OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. THESE WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

FRI-NEXT WED...(PREV DISC) FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TO WEAKLY
RIDGED. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL ELONGATE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND THEN REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY-MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRI- SAT DUE TO A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW...THEN READINGS WILL RISE TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUN-
WED AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY. MOS POPS ARE BELOW 15 PERCENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS
COULD OCCUR...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION SO FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU 12/00Z. A REINFORCING DRY FRONT THU AFTN WILL INCREASE NW
WINDS TO 13-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...ALREADY SENT EARLY MARINE UPDATE TO ALLOW SCA TO DROP FOR
BREVARD NEAR SHORE WATERS. CURRENT SCEC/SCA AREAS LOOK GOOD FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TO 13-15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 16-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 20 NM MILES OFFSHORE TO THE
WELL OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS IN THE GULF
STREAM.

THANKSGIVING DAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS...AND
PERHAPS GULF STREAM NEAR SHORE SOUTH LEG...WITH NW WINDS AROUND 20
KTS. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY NEAR SHORE. NEAR THE
COAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS BUT FURTHER OUT TO 20NM OFFSHORE WINDS A
STOUT 15-20 KTS. FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS ON THIS DAY. SEAS BUILDING
AWAY FROM THE COAST 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE/GULF STREAM AND 5-7 FT
OFFSHORE.

FRI-SUN...(PREV DISC) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
PROVIDE A NORTH WIND FRI WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...KEEPING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT POOR TO HAZARDOUS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH FLORIDA SAT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH NORTHEAST WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR EXCEPT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE DUE EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ELONGATES WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  42  66  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  45  66  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  45  69  43  66 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  46  72  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  45  64  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  44  67  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  46  66  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  45  72  44  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&

$$

VOLKMER/KELLY










000
FXUS62 KMLB 270155
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
855 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...CLEARING TONIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING...

.UPDATE...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
WITH NW LOW LVL WINDS ACROSS E CENTRAL FL. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE IN TWD LAKE COUNTY FROM THE GULF LATE TONIGHT. SOME UPPER
LEVEL CIRRUS ACROSS SRN AREAS THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. NW WINDS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND
5 MPH MOST AREAS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S ACROSS
NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE NRN INTERIOR TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S ACROSS ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CWA INCLUDING METRO ORLANDO TO SRN BREVARD COUNTY. MADE SOME
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS IN A FEW SPOTS. ZFP FCST UPDATE WILL REFINE
SKIES...WITH CLEAR OR BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS.

THANKSGIVING DAY...A COOL/DRY START TO THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NEAR SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BRISK
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S WITH 70 DEGREES WITHIN
REACH TREASURE COAST/OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. THESE WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

FRI-NEXT WED...(PREV DISC) FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TO WEAKLY
RIDGED. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL ELONGATE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND THEN REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY-MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRI- SAT DUE TO A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW...THEN READINGS WILL RISE TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUN-
WED AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY. MOS POPS ARE BELOW 15 PERCENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS
COULD OCCUR...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION SO FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THRU 12/00Z. A REINFORCING DRY FRONT THU AFTN WILL INCREASE NW
WINDS TO 13-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...ALREADY SENT EARLY MARINE UPDATE TO ALLOW SCA TO DROP FOR
BREVARD NEAR SHORE WATERS. CURRENT SCEC/SCA AREAS LOOK GOOD FOR THE
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TO 13-15 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 16-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED AROUND 20 NM MILES OFFSHORE TO THE
WELL OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS IN THE GULF
STREAM.

THANKSGIVING DAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS...AND
PERHAPS GULF STREAM NEAR SHORE SOUTH LEG...WITH NW WINDS AROUND 20
KTS. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY NEAR SHORE. NEAR THE
COAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS BUT FURTHER OUT TO 20NM OFFSHORE WINDS A
STOUT 15-20 KTS. FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS ON THIS DAY. SEAS BUILDING
AWAY FROM THE COAST 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE/GULF STREAM AND 5-7 FT
OFFSHORE.

FRI-SUN...(PREV DISC) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
PROVIDE A NORTH WIND FRI WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...KEEPING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT POOR TO HAZARDOUS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH FLORIDA SAT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH NORTHEAST WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR EXCEPT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE DUE EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ELONGATES WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  42  66  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  45  66  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  45  69  43  66 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  46  72  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  45  64  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  44  67  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  46  66  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  45  72  44  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&

$$

VOLKMER/KELLY











000
FXUS62 KTAE 270129
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF. Gusty northwest winds
are expected tomorrow afternoon, but should peak in the 20-25kt
range.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas were just starting to increase through cautionary
levels west of Apalachicola, but will increase tonight to advisory
levels and spread eastward. Exercise caution levels are likely
through early Friday, followed by lower winds and seas this
weekend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [346 PM EST]...


.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure off the South Texas coast will shift eastward tonight
with a west-east oriented ridge axis extending across the Florida
Peninsula. While for a time, this may allow for surface winds to go
calm, a clipper moving through the Tennessee Valley will tighten the
pressure gradient across the region after midnight and will likely
result in an increase in surface winds to between 5 and 10 mph. This
will limit optimal radiational cooling conditions. With that in
mind, it`s odd to see such a split in the guidance for a near term
forecast with the MET in the lower 30s and the MAV closer to 40
across the area given similar mass fields. The pattern suggests a
warmer solution is the more likely outcome, thus indicated upper
30s across much of the area. By daybreak the dry cold front with the
clipper will be passing through the forecast area.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The aforementioned cold front will be southeast of our forecast
area by late Thursday morning. Despite ample sun, high
temperatures will be below average (mid 50s north, lower 60s
south). Because the area of high pressure (at the surface) will
still be northwest of our region Thursday night & Friday, winds
may not be completely calm. This should keep low temperatures just
above freezing (around 33 F) in FL and much of south GA, but a
light freeze appears likely around Dothan and Albany. Highs will
remain below average Friday (mid to upper 50s). As the surface
ridge translates farther east Friday morning, a light freeze will
be possible across the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially from Tallahassee to Cross City.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement in building a deep layer ridge
over the Southeast, but for a weak short wave trough around mid week
next week. This means generally fair and mild weather, with highs in
the mid 60s Saturday, then lower 70s after. Lows will be in the
40s.


.Fire Weather...

Although dry air will continue to overspread the region in the wake
of a cold front, a combination of cool afternoon high temperatures
and dewpoints higher than with our last cold front will preclude any
critically low relative humidity values. However, breezy transport
winds will increase dispersion indices to marginally high levels on
Thursday.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  60  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   51  59  39  56  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        39  56  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        41  57  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      42  59  33  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    43  63  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  50  61  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 270129
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF. Gusty northwest winds
are expected tomorrow afternoon, but should peak in the 20-25kt
range.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas were just starting to increase through cautionary
levels west of Apalachicola, but will increase tonight to advisory
levels and spread eastward. Exercise caution levels are likely
through early Friday, followed by lower winds and seas this
weekend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [346 PM EST]...


.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure off the South Texas coast will shift eastward tonight
with a west-east oriented ridge axis extending across the Florida
Peninsula. While for a time, this may allow for surface winds to go
calm, a clipper moving through the Tennessee Valley will tighten the
pressure gradient across the region after midnight and will likely
result in an increase in surface winds to between 5 and 10 mph. This
will limit optimal radiational cooling conditions. With that in
mind, it`s odd to see such a split in the guidance for a near term
forecast with the MET in the lower 30s and the MAV closer to 40
across the area given similar mass fields. The pattern suggests a
warmer solution is the more likely outcome, thus indicated upper
30s across much of the area. By daybreak the dry cold front with the
clipper will be passing through the forecast area.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The aforementioned cold front will be southeast of our forecast
area by late Thursday morning. Despite ample sun, high
temperatures will be below average (mid 50s north, lower 60s
south). Because the area of high pressure (at the surface) will
still be northwest of our region Thursday night & Friday, winds
may not be completely calm. This should keep low temperatures just
above freezing (around 33 F) in FL and much of south GA, but a
light freeze appears likely around Dothan and Albany. Highs will
remain below average Friday (mid to upper 50s). As the surface
ridge translates farther east Friday morning, a light freeze will
be possible across the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially from Tallahassee to Cross City.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement in building a deep layer ridge
over the Southeast, but for a weak short wave trough around mid week
next week. This means generally fair and mild weather, with highs in
the mid 60s Saturday, then lower 70s after. Lows will be in the
40s.


.Fire Weather...

Although dry air will continue to overspread the region in the wake
of a cold front, a combination of cool afternoon high temperatures
and dewpoints higher than with our last cold front will preclude any
critically low relative humidity values. However, breezy transport
winds will increase dispersion indices to marginally high levels on
Thursday.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  60  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   51  59  39  56  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        39  56  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        41  57  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      42  59  33  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    43  63  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  50  61  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 270129
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF. Gusty northwest winds
are expected tomorrow afternoon, but should peak in the 20-25kt
range.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas were just starting to increase through cautionary
levels west of Apalachicola, but will increase tonight to advisory
levels and spread eastward. Exercise caution levels are likely
through early Friday, followed by lower winds and seas this
weekend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [346 PM EST]...


.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure off the South Texas coast will shift eastward tonight
with a west-east oriented ridge axis extending across the Florida
Peninsula. While for a time, this may allow for surface winds to go
calm, a clipper moving through the Tennessee Valley will tighten the
pressure gradient across the region after midnight and will likely
result in an increase in surface winds to between 5 and 10 mph. This
will limit optimal radiational cooling conditions. With that in
mind, it`s odd to see such a split in the guidance for a near term
forecast with the MET in the lower 30s and the MAV closer to 40
across the area given similar mass fields. The pattern suggests a
warmer solution is the more likely outcome, thus indicated upper
30s across much of the area. By daybreak the dry cold front with the
clipper will be passing through the forecast area.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The aforementioned cold front will be southeast of our forecast
area by late Thursday morning. Despite ample sun, high
temperatures will be below average (mid 50s north, lower 60s
south). Because the area of high pressure (at the surface) will
still be northwest of our region Thursday night & Friday, winds
may not be completely calm. This should keep low temperatures just
above freezing (around 33 F) in FL and much of south GA, but a
light freeze appears likely around Dothan and Albany. Highs will
remain below average Friday (mid to upper 50s). As the surface
ridge translates farther east Friday morning, a light freeze will
be possible across the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially from Tallahassee to Cross City.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement in building a deep layer ridge
over the Southeast, but for a weak short wave trough around mid week
next week. This means generally fair and mild weather, with highs in
the mid 60s Saturday, then lower 70s after. Lows will be in the
40s.


.Fire Weather...

Although dry air will continue to overspread the region in the wake
of a cold front, a combination of cool afternoon high temperatures
and dewpoints higher than with our last cold front will preclude any
critically low relative humidity values. However, breezy transport
winds will increase dispersion indices to marginally high levels on
Thursday.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  60  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   51  59  39  56  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        39  56  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        41  57  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      42  59  33  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    43  63  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  50  61  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 270129
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF. Gusty northwest winds
are expected tomorrow afternoon, but should peak in the 20-25kt
range.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas were just starting to increase through cautionary
levels west of Apalachicola, but will increase tonight to advisory
levels and spread eastward. Exercise caution levels are likely
through early Friday, followed by lower winds and seas this
weekend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [346 PM EST]...


.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure off the South Texas coast will shift eastward tonight
with a west-east oriented ridge axis extending across the Florida
Peninsula. While for a time, this may allow for surface winds to go
calm, a clipper moving through the Tennessee Valley will tighten the
pressure gradient across the region after midnight and will likely
result in an increase in surface winds to between 5 and 10 mph. This
will limit optimal radiational cooling conditions. With that in
mind, it`s odd to see such a split in the guidance for a near term
forecast with the MET in the lower 30s and the MAV closer to 40
across the area given similar mass fields. The pattern suggests a
warmer solution is the more likely outcome, thus indicated upper
30s across much of the area. By daybreak the dry cold front with the
clipper will be passing through the forecast area.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The aforementioned cold front will be southeast of our forecast
area by late Thursday morning. Despite ample sun, high
temperatures will be below average (mid 50s north, lower 60s
south). Because the area of high pressure (at the surface) will
still be northwest of our region Thursday night & Friday, winds
may not be completely calm. This should keep low temperatures just
above freezing (around 33 F) in FL and much of south GA, but a
light freeze appears likely around Dothan and Albany. Highs will
remain below average Friday (mid to upper 50s). As the surface
ridge translates farther east Friday morning, a light freeze will
be possible across the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially from Tallahassee to Cross City.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement in building a deep layer ridge
over the Southeast, but for a weak short wave trough around mid week
next week. This means generally fair and mild weather, with highs in
the mid 60s Saturday, then lower 70s after. Lows will be in the
40s.


.Fire Weather...

Although dry air will continue to overspread the region in the wake
of a cold front, a combination of cool afternoon high temperatures
and dewpoints higher than with our last cold front will preclude any
critically low relative humidity values. However, breezy transport
winds will increase dispersion indices to marginally high levels on
Thursday.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  60  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   51  59  39  56  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        39  56  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        41  57  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      42  59  33  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    43  63  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  50  61  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KMFL 262325
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL AS THE MVFR CIGS HAVE EXITED OFF THE
SE FLORIDA COAST AS A DRY, COOL AIRMASS SWEEPS IN ON N-NW WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SUNNY
SKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES BY TOMORROW. COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE FROM THIS POINT ON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ALONG ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST MAINLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL.

MARINE... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SEAS ABOVE 7 FT
ACROSS GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS
ALSO. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW ALSO. SO SCA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER BURST OF
WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA BEING EXTENDED FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THAT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY LATER ON. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS AS FLOW TURNS
MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  72  53  68 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  55  70 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            56  73  54  70 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           51  71  48  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262325
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
625 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL AS THE MVFR CIGS HAVE EXITED OFF THE
SE FLORIDA COAST AS A DRY, COOL AIRMASS SWEEPS IN ON N-NW WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH SUNNY
SKIES ON THANKSGIVING DAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES BY TOMORROW. COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE FROM THIS POINT ON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ALONG ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST MAINLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL.

MARINE... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SEAS ABOVE 7 FT
ACROSS GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS
ALSO. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW ALSO. SO SCA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER BURST OF
WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA BEING EXTENDED FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THAT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY LATER ON. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS AS FLOW TURNS
MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  72  53  68 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  55  70 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            56  73  54  70 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           51  71  48  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KTAE 262046
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure off the South Texas coast will shift eastward tonight
with a west-east oriented ridge axis extending across the Florida
Peninsula. While for a time, this may allow for surface winds to go
calm, a clipper moving through the Tennessee Valley will tighten the
pressure gradient across the region after midnight and will likely
result in an increase in surface winds to between 5 and 10 mph. This
will limit optimal radiational cooling conditions. With that in
mind, it`s odd to see such a split in the guidance for a near term
forecast with the MET in the lower 30s and the MAV closer to 40
across the area given similar mass fields. The pattern suggests a
warmer solution is the more likely outcome, thus indicated upper
30s across much of the area. By daybreak the dry cold front with the
clipper will be passing through the forecast area.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The aforementioned cold front will be southeast of our forecast
area by late Thursday morning. Despite ample sun, high
temperatures will be below average (mid 50s north, lower 60s
south). Because the area of high pressure (at the surface) will
still be northwest of our region Thursday night & Friday, winds
may not be completely calm. This should keep low temperatures just
above freezing (around 33 F) in FL and much of south GA, but a
light freeze appears likely around Dothan and Albany. Highs will
remain below average Friday (mid to upper 50s). As the surface
ridge translates farther east Friday morning, a light freeze will
be possible across the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially from Tallahassee to Cross City.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement in building a deep layer ridge
over the Southeast, but for a weak short wave trough around mid week
next week. This means generally fair and mild weather, with highs in
the mid 60s Saturday, then lower 70s after. Lows will be in the
40s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the period. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas were just below advisory levels offshore this
afternoon, but are expected to increase to marginal advisory
levels late tonight. While the strongest winds (and highest seas)
will be offshore, the 40% chance line of getting 20 KT is within
the nearshore waters, so we will just issue a small craft advisory
for our entire coastal waters beginning this afternoon. Exercise
caution conditions will persist through early Friday, followed by
a gradual reduction in winds & seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although dry air will continue to overspread the region in the wake
of a cold front, a combination of cool afternoon high temperatures
and dewpoints higher than with our last cold front will preclude any
critically low relative humidity values. However, breezy transport
winds will increase dispersion indices to marginally high levels on
Thursday.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   38  60  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   46  59  39  56  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        38  56  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        38  57  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      39  59  33  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    39  63  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  45  61  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 262046
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure off the South Texas coast will shift eastward tonight
with a west-east oriented ridge axis extending across the Florida
Peninsula. While for a time, this may allow for surface winds to go
calm, a clipper moving through the Tennessee Valley will tighten the
pressure gradient across the region after midnight and will likely
result in an increase in surface winds to between 5 and 10 mph. This
will limit optimal radiational cooling conditions. With that in
mind, it`s odd to see such a split in the guidance for a near term
forecast with the MET in the lower 30s and the MAV closer to 40
across the area given similar mass fields. The pattern suggests a
warmer solution is the more likely outcome, thus indicated upper
30s across much of the area. By daybreak the dry cold front with the
clipper will be passing through the forecast area.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The aforementioned cold front will be southeast of our forecast
area by late Thursday morning. Despite ample sun, high
temperatures will be below average (mid 50s north, lower 60s
south). Because the area of high pressure (at the surface) will
still be northwest of our region Thursday night & Friday, winds
may not be completely calm. This should keep low temperatures just
above freezing (around 33 F) in FL and much of south GA, but a
light freeze appears likely around Dothan and Albany. Highs will
remain below average Friday (mid to upper 50s). As the surface
ridge translates farther east Friday morning, a light freeze will
be possible across the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially from Tallahassee to Cross City.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement in building a deep layer ridge
over the Southeast, but for a weak short wave trough around mid week
next week. This means generally fair and mild weather, with highs in
the mid 60s Saturday, then lower 70s after. Lows will be in the
40s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the period. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas were just below advisory levels offshore this
afternoon, but are expected to increase to marginal advisory
levels late tonight. While the strongest winds (and highest seas)
will be offshore, the 40% chance line of getting 20 KT is within
the nearshore waters, so we will just issue a small craft advisory
for our entire coastal waters beginning this afternoon. Exercise
caution conditions will persist through early Friday, followed by
a gradual reduction in winds & seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although dry air will continue to overspread the region in the wake
of a cold front, a combination of cool afternoon high temperatures
and dewpoints higher than with our last cold front will preclude any
critically low relative humidity values. However, breezy transport
winds will increase dispersion indices to marginally high levels on
Thursday.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   38  60  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   46  59  39  56  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        38  56  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        38  57  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      39  59  33  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    39  63  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  45  61  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 262046
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure off the South Texas coast will shift eastward tonight
with a west-east oriented ridge axis extending across the Florida
Peninsula. While for a time, this may allow for surface winds to go
calm, a clipper moving through the Tennessee Valley will tighten the
pressure gradient across the region after midnight and will likely
result in an increase in surface winds to between 5 and 10 mph. This
will limit optimal radiational cooling conditions. With that in
mind, it`s odd to see such a split in the guidance for a near term
forecast with the MET in the lower 30s and the MAV closer to 40
across the area given similar mass fields. The pattern suggests a
warmer solution is the more likely outcome, thus indicated upper
30s across much of the area. By daybreak the dry cold front with the
clipper will be passing through the forecast area.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The aforementioned cold front will be southeast of our forecast
area by late Thursday morning. Despite ample sun, high
temperatures will be below average (mid 50s north, lower 60s
south). Because the area of high pressure (at the surface) will
still be northwest of our region Thursday night & Friday, winds
may not be completely calm. This should keep low temperatures just
above freezing (around 33 F) in FL and much of south GA, but a
light freeze appears likely around Dothan and Albany. Highs will
remain below average Friday (mid to upper 50s). As the surface
ridge translates farther east Friday morning, a light freeze will
be possible across the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially from Tallahassee to Cross City.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement in building a deep layer ridge
over the Southeast, but for a weak short wave trough around mid week
next week. This means generally fair and mild weather, with highs in
the mid 60s Saturday, then lower 70s after. Lows will be in the
40s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the period. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas were just below advisory levels offshore this
afternoon, but are expected to increase to marginal advisory
levels late tonight. While the strongest winds (and highest seas)
will be offshore, the 40% chance line of getting 20 KT is within
the nearshore waters, so we will just issue a small craft advisory
for our entire coastal waters beginning this afternoon. Exercise
caution conditions will persist through early Friday, followed by
a gradual reduction in winds & seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although dry air will continue to overspread the region in the wake
of a cold front, a combination of cool afternoon high temperatures
and dewpoints higher than with our last cold front will preclude any
critically low relative humidity values. However, breezy transport
winds will increase dispersion indices to marginally high levels on
Thursday.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   38  60  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   46  59  39  56  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        38  56  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        38  57  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      39  59  33  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    39  63  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  45  61  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 262046
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure off the South Texas coast will shift eastward tonight
with a west-east oriented ridge axis extending across the Florida
Peninsula. While for a time, this may allow for surface winds to go
calm, a clipper moving through the Tennessee Valley will tighten the
pressure gradient across the region after midnight and will likely
result in an increase in surface winds to between 5 and 10 mph. This
will limit optimal radiational cooling conditions. With that in
mind, it`s odd to see such a split in the guidance for a near term
forecast with the MET in the lower 30s and the MAV closer to 40
across the area given similar mass fields. The pattern suggests a
warmer solution is the more likely outcome, thus indicated upper
30s across much of the area. By daybreak the dry cold front with the
clipper will be passing through the forecast area.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The aforementioned cold front will be southeast of our forecast
area by late Thursday morning. Despite ample sun, high
temperatures will be below average (mid 50s north, lower 60s
south). Because the area of high pressure (at the surface) will
still be northwest of our region Thursday night & Friday, winds
may not be completely calm. This should keep low temperatures just
above freezing (around 33 F) in FL and much of south GA, but a
light freeze appears likely around Dothan and Albany. Highs will
remain below average Friday (mid to upper 50s). As the surface
ridge translates farther east Friday morning, a light freeze will
be possible across the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially from Tallahassee to Cross City.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement in building a deep layer ridge
over the Southeast, but for a weak short wave trough around mid week
next week. This means generally fair and mild weather, with highs in
the mid 60s Saturday, then lower 70s after. Lows will be in the
40s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the period. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas were just below advisory levels offshore this
afternoon, but are expected to increase to marginal advisory
levels late tonight. While the strongest winds (and highest seas)
will be offshore, the 40% chance line of getting 20 KT is within
the nearshore waters, so we will just issue a small craft advisory
for our entire coastal waters beginning this afternoon. Exercise
caution conditions will persist through early Friday, followed by
a gradual reduction in winds & seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although dry air will continue to overspread the region in the wake
of a cold front, a combination of cool afternoon high temperatures
and dewpoints higher than with our last cold front will preclude any
critically low relative humidity values. However, breezy transport
winds will increase dispersion indices to marginally high levels on
Thursday.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   38  60  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   46  59  39  56  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        38  56  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        38  57  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      39  59  33  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    39  63  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  45  61  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KMFL 262033
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CLEARING SHOULD ENSURE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES BY TOMORROW. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FROM THIS POINT ON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ALONG ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST MAINLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SEAS ABOVE 7 FT
ACROSS GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS
ALSO. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW ALSO. SO SCA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER BURST OF
WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA BEING EXTENDED FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THAT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY LATER ON. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS AS FLOW TURNS
MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  72  53  68 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  55  70 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            56  73  54  70 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           51  71  48  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....52/PS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262033
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CLEARING SHOULD ENSURE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES BY TOMORROW. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FROM THIS POINT ON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ALONG ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST MAINLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SEAS ABOVE 7 FT
ACROSS GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS
ALSO. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW ALSO. SO SCA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER BURST OF
WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA BEING EXTENDED FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THAT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY LATER ON. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS AS FLOW TURNS
MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  72  53  68 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  55  70 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            56  73  54  70 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           51  71  48  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....52/PS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262033
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CLEARING SHOULD ENSURE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES BY TOMORROW. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FROM THIS POINT ON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ALONG ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST MAINLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SEAS ABOVE 7 FT
ACROSS GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS
ALSO. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW ALSO. SO SCA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER BURST OF
WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA BEING EXTENDED FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THAT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY LATER ON. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS AS FLOW TURNS
MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  72  53  68 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  55  70 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            56  73  54  70 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           51  71  48  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....52/PS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262033
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CLEARING SHOULD ENSURE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES BY TOMORROW. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FROM THIS POINT ON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ALONG ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST MAINLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SEAS ABOVE 7 FT
ACROSS GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS
ALSO. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW ALSO. SO SCA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER BURST OF
WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA BEING EXTENDED FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THAT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY LATER ON. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS AS FLOW TURNS
MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  72  53  68 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  55  70 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            56  73  54  70 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           51  71  48  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....52/PS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262033 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES BY TOMORROW. COOLING TREND WILL
CONTINUE FROM THIS POINT ON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ALONG ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST MAINLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SEAS ABOVE 7 FT
ACROSS GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS
ALSO. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW ALSO. SO SCA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER BURST OF
WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA BEING EXTENDED FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THAT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY LATER ON. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS AS FLOW TURNS
MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  72  53  68 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  55  70 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            56  73  54  70 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           51  71  48  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....52/PS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262033
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
333 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA WITH CONDITIONS QUICKLY DRYING OUT ACROSS THE REGION.SKIES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY NEXT FEW HOURS BUT CLEARING SHOULD ENSURE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUNNY SKIES BY TOMORROW. COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FROM THIS POINT ON BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL REMAIN DRY AS STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD PREVENT MUCH VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.
A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF
AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH THIS PATTERN WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE FORECAST ALONG ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST MAINLY FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY IN THE
WEEK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE... BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SEAS ABOVE 7 FT
ACROSS GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS
ALSO. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW ALSO. SO SCA WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE SECONDARY REINFORCEMENT OF COOLER AIR BY TOMORROW
NIGHT WILL RESULT IN STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ANOTHER BURST OF
WINDS WHICH MAY REQUIRE SCA BEING EXTENDED FOR BOTH PORTIONS OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THAT PERIOD AND INTO FRIDAY LATER ON. RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL ABATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS GULF WATERS AS FLOW TURNS
MORE OFFSHORE AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS BY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS FLOW TURNS MORE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  72  53  68 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  55  70 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            56  73  54  70 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           51  71  48  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....52/PS




000
FXUS62 KTBW 262003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT NOW EXITING TO THE SOUTH WILL
MOVE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH
COOLER NIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID
40S CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH
EXCEPT LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

ON THURSDAY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH IT WITH JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL/DRY AIR ON
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AND A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
ITS PASSAGE. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
RUN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS OF THE YEAR DUE
TO THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL.


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIFT OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE NORTHWEST...WINDS
WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A FINAL NIGHT OF ADVECTION COOLING. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL STILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
IN NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY...TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EASE
UP...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE...WITH LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKEWISE MODERATE...STARTING
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND CLIMBING TO THE 70S AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO A POSITION RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...MAKING FOR PLEASANT WEATHER
TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CEILING OVER KFMY AND KRSW TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VFR BY 21Z AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER 02Z...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO INTO THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE AFTER 16Z ON THURSDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE SOUTH WITH
STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN PLACE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD AND WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONTINUING SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD THROUGH 03Z. ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND INCREASE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AGAIN
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 6 FEET OVER
THE OUTER GULF WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
LIGHTEN TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL SURF HEIGHT ALONG AREA BEACHES
HAS FALLEN BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA...SO HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT. WITH WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35
PERCENT ACROSS SUMTER...CITRUS...AND LEVY COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LOW ERC VALUES AND WINDS BELOW 15 MPH WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. INCREASING 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME HIGH DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WINDS
VEERING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH NO OTHER FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED TRENDS SEVERAL RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...HILLSBOROUGH RIVER NEAR
ZEPHYRHILLS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...LITTLE MANATEE
RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA. RESIDENTS LIVING
ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RISES IN WATER LEVELS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD
FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  50  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  68  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  46  70  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  34  66  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  66  49  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING








000
FXUS62 KTBW 262003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT NOW EXITING TO THE SOUTH WILL
MOVE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. THE
CLEARING SKIES AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A MUCH
COOLER NIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID
40S CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FAR SOUTH
EXCEPT LOWER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

ON THURSDAY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE
AFTERNOON. LACK OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY RAIN
CHANCES WITH IT WITH JUST A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL/DRY AIR ON
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AND A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH
ITS PASSAGE. DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL
RUN SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS FOR THIS OF THE YEAR DUE
TO THE COOL AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID TO UPPER 60S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH. HAPPY THANKSGIVING TO ALL.


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
DEEP UPPER/MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL LIFT OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL TO THE NORTHWEST...WINDS
WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THURSDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING A FINAL NIGHT OF ADVECTION COOLING. LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL STILL BE CHILLY...RANGING FROM RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
IN NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY...TO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EAST...THE WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND EASE
UP...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE...WITH LOWS SATURDAY
MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S...AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKEWISE MODERATE...STARTING
IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND CLIMBING TO THE 70S AT ALL
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO A POSITION RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS WEEKEND INCREASING TO PARTLY CLOUDY
THROUGH FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL CAUSE EAST WINDS TO
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...MAKING FOR PLEASANT WEATHER
TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING MVFR CEILING OVER KFMY AND KRSW TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME VFR BY 21Z AS DRIER AIR OVERSPREADS THE
REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AT ALL SITED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER 02Z...BEFORE REBOUNDING BACK TO INTO THE 10 TO 15
KNOT RANGE AFTER 16Z ON THURSDAY AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL A PERIOD OF BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE SOUTH WITH
STRONG NORTH AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL STILL HAVE
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES IN PLACE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD AND WITH
SMALL CRAFT CONTINUING SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD THROUGH 03Z. ON
THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ANOTHER SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH AND INCREASE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AGAIN
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 6 FEET OVER
THE OUTER GULF WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY AND
LIGHTEN TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL SURF HEIGHT ALONG AREA BEACHES
HAS FALLEN BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA...SO HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT. WITH WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL HEADLINES
MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THANKSGIVING DAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 35
PERCENT ACROSS SUMTER...CITRUS...AND LEVY COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BUT LOW ERC VALUES AND WINDS BELOW 15 MPH WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. INCREASING 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO
SOME HIGH DISPERSION INDICES ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. WINDS
VEERING INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE WITH HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS WITH NO OTHER FIRE
WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED TRENDS SEVERAL RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...HILLSBOROUGH RIVER NEAR
ZEPHYRHILLS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...LITTLE MANATEE
RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA. RESIDENTS LIVING
ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RISES IN WATER LEVELS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD
FLOODING BE OBSERVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  48  67  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  50  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  45  68  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  46  70  45  65 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  34  66  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  66  49  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING







000
FXUS62 KKEY 261944
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
242 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WISE...LOW PRESSURE (1001 MB) IS DEEPENING JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE VIRGINIA COAST...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DRAPED OFFSHORE OF THE
ENTIRE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEAR ANDROS ISLAND. MEANWHILE...A
FORMIDABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1026 MB) IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE POKING ACROSS THE SUNSHINE
STATE. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS RANGE
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OLD MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
AND HOLDING ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
ENSURE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE LIMITED TO BELOW A STABLE LAYER BELOW 850 MB THIS
WEEKEND. SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEFT OUT UNTIL DIME
POPS ARE INTRODUCED ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE APPRECIABLY THIS
WEEKEND AS WINDS TURN EASTERLY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. WITH OUR AREA LYING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE UNDERCUT
BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A ISOTHERMAL/INVERSION LAYER
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. GIVEN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS BELOW THE STABLE LAYER...GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WILL
PROMPT ISOLATED POPS TO BE RETAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A BRIEF SLACKENING
OCCURS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MODEST WIND SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ABATING SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...FRESH TO STRONG
MOSTLY EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 27/18Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BRIEFLY AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN IFR. CAUTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN DUE TO A NORTH CROSSWIND 18 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  62  70  60  69 / 00 00 00 00
MARATHON  60  69  58  68 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...APA



VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST















































000
FXUS62 KKEY 261944
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
242 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 70 DEGREES ALONG WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
SURFACE WISE...LOW PRESSURE (1001 MB) IS DEEPENING JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE VIRGINIA COAST...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DRAPED OFFSHORE OF THE
ENTIRE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEAR ANDROS ISLAND. MEANWHILE...A
FORMIDABLE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE (1026 MB) IS CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE POKING ACROSS THE SUNSHINE
STATE. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS RANGE
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OLD MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN AND
MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING
AND HOLDING ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
ENSURE LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN MOISTURE LIMITED TO BELOW A STABLE LAYER BELOW 850 MB THIS
WEEKEND. SUBSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEFT OUT UNTIL DIME
POPS ARE INTRODUCED ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE APPRECIABLY THIS
WEEKEND AS WINDS TURN EASTERLY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. WITH OUR AREA LYING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL BE UNDERCUT
BY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW A ISOTHERMAL/INVERSION LAYER
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. GIVEN FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS BELOW THE STABLE LAYER...GOOD MOISTURE FLUX WILL
PROMPT ISOLATED POPS TO BE RETAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE A BRIEF SLACKENING
OCCURS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER MODEST WIND SURGE WILL OVERSPREAD MOST
OF THE KEYS COASTAL WATERS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE
ABATING SOMEWHAT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...FRESH TO STRONG
MOSTLY EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 27/18Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BRIEFLY AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...THEN IFR. CAUTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN DUE TO A NORTH CROSSWIND 18 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  62  70  60  69 / 00 00 00 00
MARATHON  60  69  58  68 / 00 00 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...APA



VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST














































000
FXUS62 KJAX 261922
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...

CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
UNDER BREEZY NW WINDS THIS AFTN. HIGH TEMPS REACHED NEAR 60 DEG
OVER INLAND SE GA MIDDAY WITH TEMPS STILL CLIMBING OVER NE FL IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING WHILE RELAXING TO AROUND 5 MPH AROUND SUNSET
AHEAD OF A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WHICH WAS PRESSING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WHILE THE REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE GA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 3-5 MPH OVER SE GA WHILE WINDS WILL
DROP NEAR CALM OVER INLAND NE FL UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE RIVER BASIN AND COAST. FROST
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN DRY AIR IN PLACE.

THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LOW TEMPS ON THANKSGIVING NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT FREEZES POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MAX TEMPERATURE
READINGS AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LIGHT FREEZES POSSIBLE FOR
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 40S NEAR THE COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE AND THE ENSUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL CONTINUE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

DROPPED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS AND REPLACED WITH
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH RUNS THROUGH THU NIGHT. NW WINDS
TODAY WILL BACK TO THE W TONIGHT AND DECREASE SOME AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE THU MORNING
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT TO NW 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE...15-20 KTS
NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE
LEGS THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION
FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER ONSHORE BY
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND LOW RISK LIKELY THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  58  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  46  61  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  41  61  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  44  62  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  38  63  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  39  64  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/








000
FXUS62 KJAX 261922
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
222 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...

CLEARING SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
UNDER BREEZY NW WINDS THIS AFTN. HIGH TEMPS REACHED NEAR 60 DEG
OVER INLAND SE GA MIDDAY WITH TEMPS STILL CLIMBING OVER NE FL IN
THE WAKE OF DEPARTING CLOUD COVER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
WEST THIS EVENING WHILE RELAXING TO AROUND 5 MPH AROUND SUNSET
AHEAD OF A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WHICH WAS PRESSING SOUTHWARD
OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
WILL EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD AND ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA
WHILE THE REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT DIVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE GA.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 3-5 MPH OVER SE GA WHILE WINDS WILL
DROP NEAR CALM OVER INLAND NE FL UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS. CLEAR
SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S NEAR THE RIVER BASIN AND COAST. FROST
NOT EXPECTED GIVEN DRY AIR IN PLACE.

THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE SUNNY AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S IN COLD AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL COOLER WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30
MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES. LOW TEMPS ON THANKSGIVING NIGHT WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT FREEZES POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MAX TEMPERATURE
READINGS AGAIN ONLY IN THE LOWER 50S TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH THE APPROACH OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LIGHT FREEZES POSSIBLE FOR
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MID 40S NEAR THE COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY AND
TEMPS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE AND THE ENSUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. MILD TEMPS WILL PREVAIL NEXT
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
THE COAST BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL CONTINUE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
ON THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

DROPPED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS AND REPLACED WITH
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH RUNS THROUGH THU NIGHT. NW WINDS
TODAY WILL BACK TO THE W TONIGHT AND DECREASE SOME AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DRY COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL INCREASE THU MORNING
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT TO NW 20-25 KTS OFFSHORE...15-20 KTS
NEARSHORE. WINDS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE
LEGS THU NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION
FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL VEER ONSHORE BY
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE LOCAL WATERS INTO SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND LOW RISK LIKELY THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  39  58  32  59 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  46  61  38  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  41  61  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  44  62  40  59 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  38  63  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  39  64  34  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/







000
FXUS62 KMLB 261919
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
219 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...CLEARING TONIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THANKSGIVING...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF OF THE EAST COAST
AND AWAY FROM ECFL. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL END THIS AFTERNOON AND
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO THIN/CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTER DOWN THE
PENINSULA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...EXCEPT IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL TO BELOW 10 MPH THIS EVENING AND
EVEN WITH A SLIGHT WIND IT WILL FEEL COOLER LATE OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS
DAWN BUT WE ARE NOT CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THANKSGIVING DAY...A COOL/DRY START TO THE MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S NEAR SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE BRISK
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S WITH 70 DEGREES WITHIN
REACH TREASURE COAST/OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. THESE WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

FRI-NEXT WED...(PREV DISC) FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TO WEAKLY
RIDGED. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL ELONGATE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND THEN REINFORCING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY-MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRI- SAT DUE TO A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW...THEN READINGS WILL RISE TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUN-
WED AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY. MOS POPS ARE BELOW 15 PERCENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS
COULD OCCUR...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO MENTION SO FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WNDS:
W OF KMLB/KOBE: BTWN 26/18Z-26/24Z...NW 8-12KTS. AFT 27/00Z...W/NW
AOB 5KTS.

E OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/20Z NW 12-15KTS WITH SFC G20-23KTS. BTWN
26/20Z-26/24Z...NW 8-12KTS. AFT 27/00Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS.

CIGS/VSBYS:
W OF KMLB-KOBE: CIGS LFTG TO AOA FL120...VSBYS VFR.

E OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/20Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-035
WITH AREAS IFR CIGS BTWN FL006-009...VSBYS GENERALLY VFR...BTWN
26/20Z-26/22Z...CIGS LFTG TO AOA FL120...VSBYS VFR.

THANKSGIVING DAY...NW WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KTS/OCNL HIGHER
GUSTS. MCLEAR SKIES/DRY. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE
EAST OF THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL POUR DOWN
THE PENINSULA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH NW WINDS DECREASING TO 20-25 KTS BUT REMAINING GUSTY HERE. NEAR
SHORE WILL GO WITH SCEC FOR FLAGLER BEACH-VOLUSIA/BREVARD LINE
MARINE LEG. WILL KEEP SCA FROM VOLUSIA-BREVARD LINE THRU JUPITER
INLET UNTIL 7PM/00Z...THEN RETAIN FOR SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE LEG (GULF
STREAM) ONLY. NEAR SHORE NW WINDS 10-15 (NORTH LEG)/15-20 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS (TWO SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE LEGS). SEAS BUILDING 4-5 FT
NEAR SHORE AND HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM WITH GENERALLY 6-7 FT SEAS
OFFSHORE.

THANKSGIVING DAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE LEGS...AND
PERHAPS GULF STREAM NEAR SHORE SOUTH LEG...WITH NW WINDS AROUND 20
KTS. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY NEAR SHORE. NEAR THE
COAST WINDS AROUND 15 KTS BUT FURTHER OUT TO 20NM OFFSHORE WINDS A
STOUT 15-20 KTS. FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS ON THIS DAY. SEAS BUILDING
AWAY FROM THE COAST 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE/GULF STREAM AND 5-7 FT
OFFSHORE.

FRI-SUN...(PREV DISC) HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
PROVIDE A NORTH WIND FRI WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...KEEPING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT POOR TO HAZARDOUS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT INTO NORTH FLORIDA SAT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH NORTHEAST WINDS
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR EXCEPT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE DUE EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
ELONGATES WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  43  66  41  62 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  44  66  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  43  69  43  66 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  46  72  45  68 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  44  64  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  67  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  66  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  47  72  44  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261736 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1236 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MVFR CEILING THAT ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 21 TO 23Z
AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION ATTM. SOME SITES WEST OF LAKE OKE DROPPED BY AS MUCH AS 10
TO 14 DEGREES IN JUST THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. IMPRESSIVE
BY SOUTH FLORIDA STANDARDS. BETWEEN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
FRONT AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL BE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OR
CHANGING LITTLE THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
GRADUALLY DROPPING ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT
IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE
MORNING OR AROUND NOON. AHEAD OF IT LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH BROKEN SHIELD OF STRATIFORM RAIN
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MAY BE THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AND WITH THAT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE DECREASING. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS FIELD WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK BY THEN. SKIES WILL
DEFINITELY BE CLEARING TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

OTHER THAN UPDATING GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TAF SITES OF KPBI...KFLL...AND KFXE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE
TAF SITES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z FOR
POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS. REST OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SEE VCTS THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST TAF STIES.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SWING FROM A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY UNTIL 15Z THEN GO NORTHWEST FOR REST OF TODAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GOING DRY. SO WILL KEEP A VCSH UNTIL 15Z FOR
KAPF TAF SITE.

THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR WHEN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE TAF SITE WHICH
COULD CAUSE THE CEILING AND VIS DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WAS PROVIDING DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVING INTO THE LAKE REGION AND COLLIER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CLEAR
THE REGION BY 16Z. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WERE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE GULF BEACHES TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF +TSRA WITH
IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND TOWARDS DAWN
EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 11 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  71  52  69 /  10   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  55  71 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            56  73  55  71 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           48  71  48  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261736 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1236 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MVFR CEILING THAT ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 21 TO 23Z
AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION ATTM. SOME SITES WEST OF LAKE OKE DROPPED BY AS MUCH AS 10
TO 14 DEGREES IN JUST THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. IMPRESSIVE
BY SOUTH FLORIDA STANDARDS. BETWEEN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
FRONT AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL BE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OR
CHANGING LITTLE THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
GRADUALLY DROPPING ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT
IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE
MORNING OR AROUND NOON. AHEAD OF IT LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH BROKEN SHIELD OF STRATIFORM RAIN
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MAY BE THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AND WITH THAT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE DECREASING. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS FIELD WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK BY THEN. SKIES WILL
DEFINITELY BE CLEARING TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

OTHER THAN UPDATING GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TAF SITES OF KPBI...KFLL...AND KFXE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE
TAF SITES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z FOR
POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS. REST OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SEE VCTS THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST TAF STIES.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SWING FROM A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY UNTIL 15Z THEN GO NORTHWEST FOR REST OF TODAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GOING DRY. SO WILL KEEP A VCSH UNTIL 15Z FOR
KAPF TAF SITE.

THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR WHEN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE TAF SITE WHICH
COULD CAUSE THE CEILING AND VIS DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WAS PROVIDING DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVING INTO THE LAKE REGION AND COLLIER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CLEAR
THE REGION BY 16Z. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WERE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE GULF BEACHES TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF +TSRA WITH
IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND TOWARDS DAWN
EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 11 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  71  52  69 /  10   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  55  71 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            56  73  55  71 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           48  71  48  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261736 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1236 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MVFR CEILING THAT ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 21 TO 23Z
AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION ATTM. SOME SITES WEST OF LAKE OKE DROPPED BY AS MUCH AS 10
TO 14 DEGREES IN JUST THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. IMPRESSIVE
BY SOUTH FLORIDA STANDARDS. BETWEEN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
FRONT AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL BE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OR
CHANGING LITTLE THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
GRADUALLY DROPPING ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT
IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE
MORNING OR AROUND NOON. AHEAD OF IT LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH BROKEN SHIELD OF STRATIFORM RAIN
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MAY BE THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AND WITH THAT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE DECREASING. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS FIELD WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK BY THEN. SKIES WILL
DEFINITELY BE CLEARING TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

OTHER THAN UPDATING GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TAF SITES OF KPBI...KFLL...AND KFXE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE
TAF SITES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z FOR
POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS. REST OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SEE VCTS THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST TAF STIES.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SWING FROM A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY UNTIL 15Z THEN GO NORTHWEST FOR REST OF TODAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GOING DRY. SO WILL KEEP A VCSH UNTIL 15Z FOR
KAPF TAF SITE.

THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR WHEN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE TAF SITE WHICH
COULD CAUSE THE CEILING AND VIS DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WAS PROVIDING DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVING INTO THE LAKE REGION AND COLLIER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CLEAR
THE REGION BY 16Z. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WERE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE GULF BEACHES TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF +TSRA WITH
IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND TOWARDS DAWN
EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 11 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  71  52  69 /  10   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  55  71 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            56  73  55  71 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           48  71  48  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261736 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1236 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
THE MVFR CEILING THAT ARE OCCURRING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY 21 TO 23Z
AS THE DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DOWN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 839 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION ATTM. SOME SITES WEST OF LAKE OKE DROPPED BY AS MUCH AS 10
TO 14 DEGREES IN JUST THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. IMPRESSIVE
BY SOUTH FLORIDA STANDARDS. BETWEEN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
FRONT AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL BE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OR
CHANGING LITTLE THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
GRADUALLY DROPPING ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT
IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE
MORNING OR AROUND NOON. AHEAD OF IT LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH BROKEN SHIELD OF STRATIFORM RAIN
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MAY BE THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AND WITH THAT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE DECREASING. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS FIELD WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK BY THEN. SKIES WILL
DEFINITELY BE CLEARING TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

OTHER THAN UPDATING GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TAF SITES OF KPBI...KFLL...AND KFXE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE
TAF SITES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z FOR
POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS. REST OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SEE VCTS THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST TAF STIES.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SWING FROM A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY UNTIL 15Z THEN GO NORTHWEST FOR REST OF TODAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GOING DRY. SO WILL KEEP A VCSH UNTIL 15Z FOR
KAPF TAF SITE.

THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR WHEN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE TAF SITE WHICH
COULD CAUSE THE CEILING AND VIS DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WAS PROVIDING DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVING INTO THE LAKE REGION AND COLLIER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CLEAR
THE REGION BY 16Z. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WERE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE GULF BEACHES TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF +TSRA WITH
IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND TOWARDS DAWN
EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 11 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  71  52  69 /  10   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  55  71 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            56  73  55  71 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           48  71  48  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KKEY 261656
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1155 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES
PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 MPH. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING A
DECAYING BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
COLD...ALIGNED FROM 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS...TO 40 TO 50
NM SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE KEYS...MOVING EASTWARD NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SURFACE WISE...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (1004 MB) IS LOCATED
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA COAST...WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE (1027 MB) IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REACHING EASTWARD
INTO THE SUNSHINE STATE. THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS IS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT...A LOW LEVEL
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW MUCH DRIER AIR TO FILTER DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO OUR REGION. HENCE...OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPRINKLES
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THE COMBINATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...FRESH TO
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES PREDOMINATELY IN THE LOWER 70S BEFORE FALLING INTO
THE 60S DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE
UPDATED THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE POPS AND TRANSITIONAL
WORDING...BUT KEPT NICKLE POPS IN THE GRIDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF AROUND 30 KNOTS. THE HIGHEST SEAS WILL BE FELT
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BEYOND DRY TORTUGAS AND
SOUTHWARD FOR OVER 60 NM...AS WELL AS THE OUTER WATERS OF MAINLAND
MONROE. SUBSEQUENTLY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/27TH...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS UNTIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN IFR. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR AVIATORS WILL BE A NORTH CROSSWIND OF 18 TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL/AVIATION/NOWCASTS...APA
DATA ACQUISITION.....................SC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

















000
FXUS62 KTAE 261537
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1037 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
12 UTC surface analysis showed the cold front was clearing Florida
with the surface low moving up through Eastern North Carolina.
Much drier air was continuing to move into the region behind this
front. High pressure across the western Gulf will move south of
the region later this evening. With the mid level trough axis
having passed to the east of the region, expect sunny and dry
conditions today. Even with sunny skies, weak cool advection will
keep temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region.

&&

.Prev Discussion [611 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the
local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying
through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at
the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal
temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to
around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most
inland areas Friday morning.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface
high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to
ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected
and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Once IFR ceilings clear ABY and VLD at the
very start of the period, VFR conditions with clear skies will
prevail for the rest of this TAF cycle.


.Marine...

Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise
this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning
for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as
high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the
offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline
criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels
tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds
and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the
upcoming weekend.


.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive
today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH
values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel
moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing
transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with
values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and
Big Bend.


.Hydrology...

For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  39  62  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  47  60  40  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  40  57  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  37  58  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  39  60  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  39  63  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  48  61  40  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 261537
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1037 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
12 UTC surface analysis showed the cold front was clearing Florida
with the surface low moving up through Eastern North Carolina.
Much drier air was continuing to move into the region behind this
front. High pressure across the western Gulf will move south of
the region later this evening. With the mid level trough axis
having passed to the east of the region, expect sunny and dry
conditions today. Even with sunny skies, weak cool advection will
keep temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region.

&&

.Prev Discussion [611 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the
local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying
through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at
the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal
temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to
around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most
inland areas Friday morning.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface
high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to
ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected
and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Once IFR ceilings clear ABY and VLD at the
very start of the period, VFR conditions with clear skies will
prevail for the rest of this TAF cycle.


.Marine...

Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise
this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning
for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as
high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the
offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline
criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels
tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds
and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the
upcoming weekend.


.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive
today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH
values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel
moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing
transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with
values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and
Big Bend.


.Hydrology...

For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  39  62  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  47  60  40  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  40  57  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  37  58  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  39  60  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  39  63  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  48  61  40  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 261537
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1037 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
12 UTC surface analysis showed the cold front was clearing Florida
with the surface low moving up through Eastern North Carolina.
Much drier air was continuing to move into the region behind this
front. High pressure across the western Gulf will move south of
the region later this evening. With the mid level trough axis
having passed to the east of the region, expect sunny and dry
conditions today. Even with sunny skies, weak cool advection will
keep temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region.

&&

.Prev Discussion [611 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the
local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying
through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at
the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal
temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to
around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most
inland areas Friday morning.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface
high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to
ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected
and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Once IFR ceilings clear ABY and VLD at the
very start of the period, VFR conditions with clear skies will
prevail for the rest of this TAF cycle.


.Marine...

Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise
this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning
for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as
high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the
offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline
criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels
tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds
and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the
upcoming weekend.


.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive
today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH
values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel
moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing
transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with
values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and
Big Bend.


.Hydrology...

For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  39  62  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  47  60  40  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  40  57  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  37  58  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  39  60  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  39  63  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  48  61  40  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 261537
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1037 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
12 UTC surface analysis showed the cold front was clearing Florida
with the surface low moving up through Eastern North Carolina.
Much drier air was continuing to move into the region behind this
front. High pressure across the western Gulf will move south of
the region later this evening. With the mid level trough axis
having passed to the east of the region, expect sunny and dry
conditions today. Even with sunny skies, weak cool advection will
keep temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region.

&&

.Prev Discussion [611 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the
local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying
through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at
the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal
temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to
around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most
inland areas Friday morning.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface
high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to
ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected
and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Once IFR ceilings clear ABY and VLD at the
very start of the period, VFR conditions with clear skies will
prevail for the rest of this TAF cycle.


.Marine...

Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise
this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning
for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as
high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the
offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline
criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels
tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds
and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the
upcoming weekend.


.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive
today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH
values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel
moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing
transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with
values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and
Big Bend.


.Hydrology...

For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  39  62  33  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  47  60  40  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  40  57  33  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  37  58  32  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  39  60  32  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  39  63  33  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  48  61  40  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTBW 261500
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY EXPECT LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN NOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO GRADUALLY END WITH CONSIDERABLE
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WE MOVE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA. COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT A MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGH
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 60 ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER
TO MID 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND MID TO UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WINDS DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE NORTH PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE RAIN
ENDING AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WILL ALLOW THE FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE AT NOON...AND WILL UPDATE THE ZONES THEN TO
REFRESH HEADLINES WITHIN THE ZONES...WITH NO OTHER GRID OR ZONE
CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING -RA WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY RETURNING AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 12 TO
15 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AOB
10 KNOTS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE
FORCE ALONG WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. THIS HIGHER
SURF WELL OFFSHORE TRANSLATES TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AS WELL AS HIGH SURF ON THE COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WATERS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ALL AREAS BELOW 20 KTS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THEY BECOME EASTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED TRENDS SEVERAL RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...HILLSBOROUGH RIVER NEAR
ZEPHYRHILLS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...LITTLE MANATEE
RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD. RESIDENTS
LIVING ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RISES IN WATER
LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE
OBSERVED.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING






000
FXUS62 KTBW 261500
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1000 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY AFTERNOON AS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY EXPECT LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN NOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO GRADUALLY END WITH CONSIDERABLE
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS ERODING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WE MOVE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA. COOL AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT A MUCH COOLER DAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGH
ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 60 ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER
TO MID 60S CENTRAL ZONES...AND MID TO UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WINDS DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES AS THE STORM SYSTEM TO THE NORTH PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THE RAIN
ENDING AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WILL ALLOW THE FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE AT NOON...AND WILL UPDATE THE ZONES THEN TO
REFRESH HEADLINES WITHIN THE ZONES...WITH NO OTHER GRID OR ZONE
CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING -RA WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 16Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY RETURNING AFTER 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 12 TO
15 KNOT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING NORTHWEST WINDS AOB
10 KNOTS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WATERS
THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY STRONG GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE WITH WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE
FORCE ALONG WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. THIS HIGHER
SURF WELL OFFSHORE TRANSLATES TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AS WELL AS HIGH SURF ON THE COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS OVER THE WATERS FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH ALL AREAS BELOW 20 KTS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NO
MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS. A LARGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
WINDS AND SEAS AGAIN. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THEY BECOME EASTERLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GIVEN THE RECENT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SEVERAL AREA
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGES OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THESE EXPECTED TRENDS SEVERAL RIVER
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...HILLSBOROUGH RIVER NEAR
ZEPHYRHILLS...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...LITTLE MANATEE
RIVER AT WIMAUMA...AND THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD. RESIDENTS
LIVING ALONG THESE RIVERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RISES IN WATER
LEVELS AND BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND SHOULD FLOODING BE
OBSERVED.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING







000
FXUS62 KJAX 261408
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
907 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MORNING PRECIP WITH RAPID CLEARING AND COOLER IN THE
AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...LAST BATCH OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BE PUSHING QUICKLY
ENE OF SE GA AND OUR SOUTHERN FL COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
TRAILED BY RAPID CLEARING FROM THE W INTO THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL
RISE THIS AFTN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH BREEZY WNW WINDS
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

TEMPS WILL COOL TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S
RIVER BASIN/COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 5 MPH MOST OF
NIGHT WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION...SO FROST NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. VFR
WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...RAISED A GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN BUOY
41008 HAS BEEN REPORTING GUSTS OF 33-35 KTS FOR 3 HOURS. GALE
WARNING GOES THROUGH 1 PM THIS AFTN...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  40  58  34 /  40   0   0   0
SSI  59  44  59  38 /  70   0   0   0
JAX  61  40  61  34 /  50   0   0   0
SGJ  60  43  63  41 /  80   0   0   0
GNV  61  39  63  34 /  40   0   0   0
OCF  63  39  65  35 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET










000
FXUS62 KJAX 261408
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
907 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...MORNING PRECIP WITH RAPID CLEARING AND COOLER IN THE
AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...LAST BATCH OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIP WILL BE PUSHING QUICKLY
ENE OF SE GA AND OUR SOUTHERN FL COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
TRAILED BY RAPID CLEARING FROM THE W INTO THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL
RISE THIS AFTN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH BREEZY WNW WINDS
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

TEMPS WILL COOL TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND TO LOW/MID 40S
RIVER BASIN/COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 5 MPH MOST OF
NIGHT WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION...SO FROST NOT A CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS CLEAR OUT BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. VFR
WILL THEN PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...RAISED A GALE WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS GIVEN BUOY
41008 HAS BEEN REPORTING GUSTS OF 33-35 KTS FOR 3 HOURS. GALE
WARNING GOES THROUGH 1 PM THIS AFTN...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  40  58  34 /  40   0   0   0
SSI  59  44  59  38 /  70   0   0   0
JAX  61  40  61  34 /  50   0   0   0
SGJ  60  43  63  41 /  80   0   0   0
GNV  61  39  63  34 /  40   0   0   0
OCF  63  39  65  35 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/GUILLET









000
FXUS62 KMLB 261400
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WET/BREEZY/COOLER THEN CLEARING LATE TODAY...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE TODAY THEN OFFSHORE
TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING...

CURRENT-TODAY...FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSING ECFL THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT FOR A SHORT DURATION (30-35 MPH). NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIE DOWN A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL STILL SEE
AFTERNOON WINDS IN UPWARDS OF 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS.
WILL HANG ONTO FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON...THOUGH ADDITIONAL FLOODING
THREAT FROM LIGHT RAINFALL ON RADAR VERY LOW. WILL UPDATE ZONES AT
THAT TIME AS WELL TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING. MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS VIEWED FROM OBSERVATIONS OF LOWER 50S ALONG
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THE TREASURE COAST STILL BASKS IN LOWER 70S BUT
NOT FOR LONG. DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MUCH RECOVERY FROM
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LIKELY THE HIGHS FOR THIS CALENDAR DAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAINFALL BEHIND FRONT WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AREAWIDE LIKELY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THINNING OF CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO THIN/CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTER DOWN THE
PENINSULA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL DRIVE DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S...EXCEPT COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL TO BELOW 10 MPH AND
THOUGH EVEN WITH A SLIGHT WIND IT WILL FEEL COOLER LATE
OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS DAWN BUT WE ARE NOT CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC WNDS:
W OF KMLB/KOBE: THRU 26/18Z...W/NW 14-18KTS WITH SFC G22-26KTS.
BTWN 26/18Z-26/24Z...NW 8-12KTS. AFT 27/00Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS.

E OF KMLB-KOBE: BTWN 26/14Z-26/16Z...WNDSHFT TO NW 12-15KTS WITH SFC
G22-25KTS...CONTG THRU 26/20Z. BTWN 26/20Z-26/24Z...NW 8-12KTS. AFT
27/00Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS.

CIGS/VSBYS:
W OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/16Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL012-018
WITH LCL IFR CIGS BTWN FL004-006...VSBYS GENERALLY VFR -RA...LCL
MVFR IN RA/BR. BTWN 26/16Z-26/19Z...CIGS LFTG TO AOA FL120...VSBYS
VFR.

E OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/18Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-035
WITH AREAS IFR CIGS BTWN FL006-009...VSBYS GENERALLY MVFR IN
RA/BR...LCL IFR IN +RA/BR. BTWN 26/18Z-26/22Z...CIGS LFTG TO AOA
FL120...VSBYS VFR.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MARINE LEGS MID-LATE MORNING. SW WINDS WILL
VEER QUICKLY TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO
20-25 KTS/GUSTY NEAR SHORE AND 25-30 KTS/OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENTLY HAVE SCA ENDING NEAR SHORE AT
21Z...CONTINUING SCA OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WILL RE-ACCESS WITH
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
FOR SMALL CRAFT WHEN SCA DOES END (NEAR SHORE/OFFSHORE). SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE...SUBSIDING TO 3-5
FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/PENDERGRAST






000
FXUS62 KMFL 261339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
839 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION ATTM. SOME SITES WEST OF LAKE OKE DROPPED BY AS MUCH AS 10
TO 14 DEGREES IN JUST THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO. IMPRESSIVE
BY SOUTH FLORIDA STANDARDS. BETWEEN COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
FRONT AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY WILL BE
OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS REMAINING NEARLY STEADY OR
CHANGING LITTLE THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
GRADUALLY DROPPING ONCE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT
IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY LATE
MORNING OR AROUND NOON. AHEAD OF IT LINE OF BROKEN SHOWERS WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION WITH BROKEN SHIELD OF STRATIFORM RAIN
LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT INTO MAY BE THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AND WITH THAT CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE DECREASING. EXTENSIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS FIELD WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK BY THEN. SKIES WILL
DEFINITELY BE CLEARING TONIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

OTHER THAN UPDATING GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS
NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TAF SITES OF KPBI...KFLL...AND KFXE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE
TAF SITES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z FOR
POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS. REST OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SEE VCTS THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST TAF STIES.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SWING FROM A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY UNTIL 15Z THEN GO NORTHWEST FOR REST OF TODAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GOING DRY. SO WILL KEEP A VCSH UNTIL 15Z FOR
KAPF TAF SITE.

THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR WHEN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE TAF SITE WHICH
COULD CAUSE THE CEILING AND VIS DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WAS PROVIDING DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVING INTO THE LAKE REGION AND COLLIER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CLEAR
THE REGION BY 16Z. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WERE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE GULF BEACHES TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF +TSRA WITH
IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND TOWARDS DAWN
EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 11 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  51  71  52 /  60  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
MIAMI            80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
NAPLES           70  48  71  48 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....52/PS



000
FXUS62 KKEY 261200
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED AT AROUND 050 AFT 27/00Z.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 261200
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING...WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING
TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS
AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED AT AROUND 050 AFT 27/00Z.

&&

$$

AVIATION...KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KMFL 261142 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
642 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TAF SITES OF KPBI...KFLL...AND KFXE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THESE
TAF SITES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z FOR
POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS. REST OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SEE VCTS THROUGH THIS MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST TAF STIES.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL SWING FROM A
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THIS MORNING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASE FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
WESTERLY UNTIL 15Z THEN GO NORTHWEST FOR REST OF TODAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE GOING DRY. SO WILL KEEP A VCSH UNTIL 15Z FOR
KAPF TAF SITE.

THE CEILING AND VIS SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...EXCEPT
FOR WHEN A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVES OVER THE TAF SITE WHICH
COULD CAUSE THE CEILING AND VIS DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WAS PROVIDING DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVING INTO THE LAKE REGION AND COLLIER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CLEAR
THE REGION BY 16Z. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WERE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE GULF BEACHES TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF +TSRA WITH
IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND TOWARDS DAWN
EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 11 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  51  71  52 /  60  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
MIAMI            80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
NAPLES           70  48  71  48 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
     AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KTAE 261111
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
611 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Once IFR ceilings clear ABY and VLD at the
very start of the period, VFR conditions with clear skies will
prevail for the rest of this TAF cycle.

&&

.Prev Discussion [316 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A broad long wave trough remains in place across much of the central
and eastern CONUS this morning. A final short wave trough is moving
east through its base and is poised to sweep east across the
forecast area from 12-18Z. Surface analysis shows a stationary front
draped across the northern portion of the FL Peninsula. A wave on
the front west of FL is weakening as energy is transferred to a
deepening low off the SC coast. We are continuing to see some weak
isentropic ascent over the northwestward sloping frontal boundary
aloft. This forcing is combining with that provided by DPVA ahead of
the short wave to maintain a shield of light rain over the lion`s
share of the forecast area as of 06Z. Forcing for ascent will end
from west to east this morning. This will allow for some rapid
clearing. Slight to low chance PoPs were restricted after sunrise to
our GA and eastern FL Big Bend zones and all precipitation should be
east of the area before noon. Despite the long-awaited return of
sunshine, temps will be cool. Most areas will see afternoon highs in
the lower 60s which is 7-10 degrees below normal.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the
local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying
through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at
the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal
temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to
around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most
inland areas Friday morning.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface
high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to
ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected
and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.


.Marine...

Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise
this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning
for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as
high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the
offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline
criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels
tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds
and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the
upcoming weekend.


.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive
today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH
values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel
moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing
transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with
values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and
Big Bend.


.Hydrology...

For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  39  62  33  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  47  60  40  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  40  57  33  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  37  58  32  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  39  60  32  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  39  63  33  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  48  61  40  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 261111
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
611 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Once IFR ceilings clear ABY and VLD at the
very start of the period, VFR conditions with clear skies will
prevail for the rest of this TAF cycle.

&&

.Prev Discussion [316 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A broad long wave trough remains in place across much of the central
and eastern CONUS this morning. A final short wave trough is moving
east through its base and is poised to sweep east across the
forecast area from 12-18Z. Surface analysis shows a stationary front
draped across the northern portion of the FL Peninsula. A wave on
the front west of FL is weakening as energy is transferred to a
deepening low off the SC coast. We are continuing to see some weak
isentropic ascent over the northwestward sloping frontal boundary
aloft. This forcing is combining with that provided by DPVA ahead of
the short wave to maintain a shield of light rain over the lion`s
share of the forecast area as of 06Z. Forcing for ascent will end
from west to east this morning. This will allow for some rapid
clearing. Slight to low chance PoPs were restricted after sunrise to
our GA and eastern FL Big Bend zones and all precipitation should be
east of the area before noon. Despite the long-awaited return of
sunshine, temps will be cool. Most areas will see afternoon highs in
the lower 60s which is 7-10 degrees below normal.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the
local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying
through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at
the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal
temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to
around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most
inland areas Friday morning.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface
high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to
ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected
and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.


.Marine...

Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise
this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning
for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as
high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the
offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline
criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels
tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds
and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the
upcoming weekend.


.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive
today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH
values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel
moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing
transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with
values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and
Big Bend.


.Hydrology...

For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  39  62  33  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  47  60  40  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  40  57  33  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  37  58  32  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  39  60  32  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  39  63  33  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  48  61  40  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 260945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WET/BREEZY/COOLER THEN CLEARING LATE TODAY...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE TODAY THEN OFFSHORE
TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING...

CURRENTLY...
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A FULL LATITUDE H85-H50 TROF EXTENDING FROM
BAFFIN BAY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...A POWERFUL H30-H20 JET PATTERN
WITH A +150KT CORE LIFTING OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND A +130KT CORE
DIGGING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS...A WEAK SFC LOW DEEPENING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST...A FRNTL BNDRY STALLED JUST N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...
A SATURATION BAND RIDING JUST AHEAD OF IT WITH PWAT VALUES BTWN
2.3"-2.4"...AND LAST BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...A PRECIP BAND WITH
TRAINING ECHOS DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. NMRS REPORTS OF
24HR RAINFALL EXCEEDING 5.0" N OF CAPE CANAVERAL/LAKE KISSIMMEE
MATCHES UP WELL WITH RADAR ESTIMATED PRECIP. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION...THOUGH RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL HAS BEEN LARGELY
AOB 2.0". SFC OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE U60S/L70S ACRS THE
CWA...BUT DROPPING INTO THE L/M50S ACRS THE BIG BEND/ERN PANHANDLE.

TODAY-TONIGHT...
STRONG UPR LVL DIVERGENCE ON THE ASCENDING RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE
LIFTING JET WILL ALLOW THE DVLPG CAROLINA LOW TO CONTINUE DEEPENING
THRU THE DAY AS IT RACES UP THE ERN SEABOARD. THE LOW ALREADY HAS
SUPPRESSED THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INTO THE NW CARIB AND WILL PROVIDE
THE TORQUE NECESSARY TO CRANK THE COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTN. LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE...THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE MUCH LWR THAN THE PAST 24HRS AS THE SATURATION BAND WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE FL STRAITS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TREASURE
COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THRU MID MRNG WITH AVG QPF BTWN
0.50"-0.75"...LCL HEAVY RAIN WILL PRODUCE AMNTS IN EXCESS OF 1.0"
FURTHER N...PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH AVG QPF BTWN 0.10"
AND 0.25". PRECIP WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BY EARLY AFTN AS THE FRONT
SWINGS THRU THE STATE.

SKIES WILL BE SLOW TO CLEARING BEHIND THE FRONT AS SAT PICS SHOW AN
EXTENSIVE STRATUS FIELD EXTENDING BACK INTO THE ERN GOMEX/WRN FL
PANHANDLE. DENSE CLOUD COVER...RAIN COOLED AIR...AND A DVLPG NW
BREEZE WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMPS FROM WARMING BY MORE 5F DEG FROM
THEIR DAWN READINGS...IN FACT AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE FROPA WILL
ACTUALLY SEE THEIR TEMPS FALL THRU THE AFTN. MOST AREAS WILL SEE MAX
TEMPS OCCURRING BEFORE NOON....GENERALLY L/M70S. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AFTER SUNSET AS THE NW FLOW SCOURS OUT ANY LINGERING
MOISTURE. TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH MINS DROPPING INTO THE L/M40S
OVER THE INTERIOR...M/U40S ALONG THE COAST.

THANKSGIVING DAY...
COOL/DRY AIR MASS WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING THEN A
BIT OF A SECONDARY SURGE OF NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS INDICATED IN THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD MAKE IT OCCASIONALLY ON THE BREEZY SIDE. EXPECT
BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN THE
SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PROVIDE A COOL
NORTH FLOW THU NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PROBABLY
SET UP A WIDE RANGE OF LOWS ALONG THE COAST THOUGH...LOWER 40S
INLAND AND NEAR 50 AT THE BEACHES SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

FRI-NEXT WED...
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TO WEAKLY RIDGED. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL ELONGATE INTO THE ATLANTIC
OVER THE WEEKEND THEN REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY-MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRI-
SAT DUE TO A NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND FLOW...THEN READINGS WILL RISE
TO AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL SUN-WED AS WINDS BECOME EASTERLY.
MOS POPS ARE BELOW 15 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH
ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS COULD OCCUR...COVERAGE LOOKS TO LOW TO
MENTION SO FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC WNDS:
W OF KMLB/KOBE: THRU 26/12Z...S/SW ARND 10KTS BCMG W/NW 14-18KTS
WITH SFC G22-26KTS...CONTG THRU 26/18Z. BTWN 26/18Z-26/24Z...NW
8-12KTS. AFT 27/00Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS.

E OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/14Z...S/SW 8-12KTS. BTWN 26/14Z-26/16Z...
WNDSHFT TO NW 12-15KTS WITH SFC G22-25KTS...CONTG THRU 26/20Z. BTWN
26/20Z-26/24Z...NW 8-12KTS. AFT 27/00Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS.

CIGS/VSBYS:
W OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/16Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL012-018
WITH LCL IFR CIGS BTWN FL004-006...VSBYS GENERALLY VFR -RA...LCL
MVFR IN RA/BR. BTWN 26/16Z-26/19Z...CIGS LFTG TO AOA FL120...VSBYS
VFR.

E OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/18Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-038
WITH AREAS IFR CIGS BTWN FL006-009...VSBYS GENERALLY MVFR IN
RA/BR...LCL IFR IN +RA/BR. BTWN 26/18Z-26/22Z...CIGS LFTG TO AOA
FL120...VSBYS VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
SFC LOW DVLPG OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL RACE UP THE ERN
SEABOARD...PULLING A COLD FRONT ACRS THE LCL ATLC BY LATE AFTN.
MODERATE TO FRESH S/SW BREEZE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BCMG A FRESH TO
STRONG NW BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER
THE OFFSHORE LEG THRU EARLY AFTN. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO A MODERATE
TO FRESH BREEZE LATE AFTN INTO SUNSET. SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE...SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND
5-7FT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

THANKSGIVING DAY...
EARLY MORNING WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE NORTHWEST AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA... SO CONDITIONS MAY
LOOK GOOD FOR BOATING WHILE AT SHORE...BUT THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL
BE POOR TO HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20
KNOTS.

FRI-SUN...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL PROVIDE A NORTH WIND
FRI WITH SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...KEEPING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT POOR TO HAZARDOUS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT INTO NORTH
FLORIDA SAT...WHICH WILL DIMINISH NORTHEAST WINDS ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN WATERS. SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR EXCEPT WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE DUE EAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ELONGATES WELL INTO
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  47  65  41 /  50   0   0   0
MCO  64  44  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
MLB  68  46  70  42 /  60   0   0   0
VRB  71  46  70  48 /  60   0   0   0
LEE  62  42  65  40 /  50   0   0   0
SFB  63  44  66  42 /  50   0   0   0
ORL  63  44  67  44 /  50   0   0   0
FPR  73  46  72  47 /  70   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAGAW
LONG TERM....LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR...CRISTALDI





000
FXUS62 KKEY 260907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
407 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND REACHES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
TROUGHING IS TAKING PLACE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
A LOW DEEPENING JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A SWATH OF FAST MOVING
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCAL WINDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ARE NOW MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL NEAR 80
DEGREES...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. FURTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT IS GAINING SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY 42003 HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

FORECAST - THE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL RACE OFF NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING PAST MAINE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE SWATH OF SHOWERS
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL FINALLY BE FLUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE AHEAD OF THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH/FRONT...AS A RESULT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION. IT IS LIKELY HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST A SPELL OF SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BLASTS
THROUGH. AFTER DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY AS WINDS FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE DAY TO END WITH TEMPERATURES DESCENDING
THROUGH THE UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS FALLING NEAR 60.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A HIGH CELL MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 IN THE LOWER
KEYS AND 55 TO 60 IN THE UPPER KEYS. WINDS WILL LULL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE 70S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH CELL SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE ALREADY COOL AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE KEYS...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT LOWER IN THE 50S.

THE HIGH CELL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL
MODERATE AND STEADILY VEER...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARDS UNDER
THE INCREASINGLY WARMER MARITIME TRAJECTORY. THE STILL FAST EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THEY VEER WESTERLY...THEN SHIFT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BECOMING STRONG AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KEYS WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF
LULL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
MOST KEYS WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND DRAW NEARER THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
STRONGER BREEZES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WINDS
TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DURATION OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS AND GUSTY AROUND 26/11Z. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED AT
AROUND 050 AFT 27/00Z.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  62  70  60 / 60 0 0 0
MARATHON  76  60  69  58 / 60 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
407 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND REACHES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
TROUGHING IS TAKING PLACE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
A LOW DEEPENING JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A SWATH OF FAST MOVING
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCAL WINDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ARE NOW MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL NEAR 80
DEGREES...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. FURTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT IS GAINING SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY 42003 HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

FORECAST - THE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL RACE OFF NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING PAST MAINE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE SWATH OF SHOWERS
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL FINALLY BE FLUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE AHEAD OF THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH/FRONT...AS A RESULT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION. IT IS LIKELY HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST A SPELL OF SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BLASTS
THROUGH. AFTER DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY AS WINDS FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE DAY TO END WITH TEMPERATURES DESCENDING
THROUGH THE UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS FALLING NEAR 60.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A HIGH CELL MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 IN THE LOWER
KEYS AND 55 TO 60 IN THE UPPER KEYS. WINDS WILL LULL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE 70S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH CELL SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE ALREADY COOL AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE KEYS...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT LOWER IN THE 50S.

THE HIGH CELL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL
MODERATE AND STEADILY VEER...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARDS UNDER
THE INCREASINGLY WARMER MARITIME TRAJECTORY. THE STILL FAST EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THEY VEER WESTERLY...THEN SHIFT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BECOMING STRONG AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KEYS WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF
LULL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
MOST KEYS WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND DRAW NEARER THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
STRONGER BREEZES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WINDS
TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DURATION OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS AND GUSTY AROUND 26/11Z. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED AT
AROUND 050 AFT 27/00Z.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  62  70  60 / 60 0 0 0
MARATHON  76  60  69  58 / 60 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
407 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND REACHES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
TROUGHING IS TAKING PLACE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
A LOW DEEPENING JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A SWATH OF FAST MOVING
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCAL WINDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ARE NOW MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL NEAR 80
DEGREES...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. FURTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT IS GAINING SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY 42003 HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

FORECAST - THE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL RACE OFF NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING PAST MAINE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE SWATH OF SHOWERS
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL FINALLY BE FLUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE AHEAD OF THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH/FRONT...AS A RESULT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION. IT IS LIKELY HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST A SPELL OF SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BLASTS
THROUGH. AFTER DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY AS WINDS FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE DAY TO END WITH TEMPERATURES DESCENDING
THROUGH THE UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS FALLING NEAR 60.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A HIGH CELL MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 IN THE LOWER
KEYS AND 55 TO 60 IN THE UPPER KEYS. WINDS WILL LULL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE 70S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH CELL SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE ALREADY COOL AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE KEYS...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT LOWER IN THE 50S.

THE HIGH CELL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL
MODERATE AND STEADILY VEER...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARDS UNDER
THE INCREASINGLY WARMER MARITIME TRAJECTORY. THE STILL FAST EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THEY VEER WESTERLY...THEN SHIFT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BECOMING STRONG AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KEYS WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF
LULL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
MOST KEYS WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND DRAW NEARER THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
STRONGER BREEZES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WINDS
TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DURATION OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS AND GUSTY AROUND 26/11Z. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED AT
AROUND 050 AFT 27/00Z.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  62  70  60 / 60 0 0 0
MARATHON  76  60  69  58 / 60 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 260907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
407 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
UNITED STATES AND REACHES DEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE
TROUGHING IS TAKING PLACE IN THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
A LOW DEEPENING JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A SWATH OF FAST MOVING
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LOCAL WINDS HAVE TRENDED UPWARDS
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ARE NOW MODERATE OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST. THIS FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL NEAR 80
DEGREES...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. FURTHER TO
THE NORTHWEST...A COLD FRONT IS GAINING SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY 42003 HAS BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 30 KNOTS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

FORECAST - THE TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CONSOLIDATE INTO THE DEEPENING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD. THIS LOW WILL RACE OFF NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY...MOVING PAST MAINE BY TOMORROW MORNING. THE SWATH OF SHOWERS
IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL FINALLY BE FLUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA TODAY.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RACE AHEAD OF THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH/FRONT...AS A RESULT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN DEEP
CONVECTION. IT IS LIKELY HOWEVER THAT AT LEAST A SPELL OF SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BLASTS
THROUGH. AFTER DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY...TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY AS WINDS FRESHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE DAY TO END WITH TEMPERATURES DESCENDING
THROUGH THE UPPER 60S AND DEW POINTS FALLING NEAR 60.

STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A HIGH CELL MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 60 IN THE LOWER
KEYS AND 55 TO 60 IN THE UPPER KEYS. WINDS WILL LULL THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE INTO THE 70S. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH CELL SETS UP OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE ALREADY COOL AIR MASS
MOVING INTO THE KEYS...AND LOWS WILL BE A BIT LOWER IN THE 50S.

THE HIGH CELL OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT SHIFTS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL
MODERATE AND STEADILY VEER...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY TREND UPWARDS UNDER
THE INCREASINGLY WARMER MARITIME TRAJECTORY. THE STILL FAST EASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THEY VEER WESTERLY...THEN SHIFT
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BECOMING STRONG AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS KEYS WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH A BRIEF
LULL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR
MOST KEYS WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND DRAW NEARER THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
STRONGER BREEZES WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WINDS
TURN MORE EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE DURATION OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND
25 KNOTS AND GUSTY AROUND 26/11Z. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THE
MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED AT
AROUND 050 AFT 27/00Z.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  62  70  60 / 60 0 0 0
MARATHON  76  60  69  58 / 60 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KMFL 260844
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WAS PROVIDING DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVING INTO THE LAKE REGION AND COLLIER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CLEAR
THE REGION BY 16Z. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WERE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE GULF BEACHES TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF +TSRA WITH
IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND TOWARDS DAWN
EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 11 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  51  71  52 /  60  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
MIAMI            80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
NAPLES           70  48  71  48 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260844
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WAS PROVIDING DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVING INTO THE LAKE REGION AND COLLIER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CLEAR
THE REGION BY 16Z. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WERE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE GULF BEACHES TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF +TSRA WITH
IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND TOWARDS DAWN
EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 11 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  51  71  52 /  60  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
MIAMI            80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
NAPLES           70  48  71  48 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260844
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WAS PROVIDING DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVING INTO THE LAKE REGION AND COLLIER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CLEAR
THE REGION BY 16Z. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WERE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE GULF BEACHES TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF +TSRA WITH
IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND TOWARDS DAWN
EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 11 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  51  71  52 /  60  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
MIAMI            80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
NAPLES           70  48  71  48 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260844
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WAS STILL LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WAS PROVIDING DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND MOVING INTO THE LAKE REGION AND COLLIER COUNTY
EARLY THIS MORNING.

FOR TODAY...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CLEAR
THE REGION BY 16Z. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE ENHANCED LIFT WILL
KEEP CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE MAXIMUM FOR THE DAY MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80 DEGREES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
COOLER AIR WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOWER 60S. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WERE IN THE
MID/UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE
TO 25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A COUPLE HOURS. STRONG
RIP CURRENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY AT THE GULF BEACHES TODAY AS
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY
MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S.

THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY/REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
COOL ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ALONG THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTLINE. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. A MID/WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS
THE GULF AND TOWARDS THE REGION OVER WEEKEND AND REMAIN THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF +TSRA WITH
IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS POSSIBLE AS THE
LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND TOWARDS DAWN
EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS
AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS BY DAYBREAK THIS
MORNING...AND PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY NOON. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...AND THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 20
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 8 TO 11 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET
AND REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  51  71  52 /  60  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
MIAMI            80  56  73  55 /  50  10   0   0
NAPLES           70  48  71  48 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...57/DG




000
FXUS62 KTAE 260816
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
316 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A broad long wave trough remains in place across much of the central
and eastern CONUS this morning. A final short wave trough is moving
east through its base and is poised to sweep east across the
forecast area from 12-18Z. Surface analysis shows a stationary front
draped across the northern portion of the FL Peninsula. A wave on
the front west of FL is weakening as energy is transferred to a
deepening low off the SC coast. We are continuing to see some weak
isentropic ascent over the northwestward sloping frontal boundary
aloft. This forcing is combining with that provided by DPVA ahead of
the short wave to maintain a shield of light rain over the lion`s
share of the forecast area as of 06Z. Forcing for ascent will end
from west to east this morning. This will allow for some rapid
clearing. Slight to low chance PoPs were restricted after sunrise to
our GA and eastern FL Big Bend zones and all precipitation should be
east of the area before noon. Despite the long-awaited return of
sunshine, temps will be cool. Most areas will see afternoon highs in
the lower 60s which is 7-10 degrees below normal.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the
local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying
through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at
the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal
temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to
around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most
inland areas Friday morning.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface
high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to
ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected
and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Thursday] MVFR with occasional IFR conditions will
impact VLD during the pre-dawn hours. There may be a brief MVFR
ceiling at TLH and ABY as well, but it is more likely the a mid
level cloud deck will maintain VFR ceilings until sunrise. Clearing
will occur from northwest to southeast from 09-14Z.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise
this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning
for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as
high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the
offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline
criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels
tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds
and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive
today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH
values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel
moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing
transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with
values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and
Big Bend.

&&

.Hydrology...

For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  39  62  33  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  47  60  40  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  40  57  33  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  37  58  32  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  39  60  32  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  39  63  33  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  48  61  40  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 260816
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
316 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A broad long wave trough remains in place across much of the central
and eastern CONUS this morning. A final short wave trough is moving
east through its base and is poised to sweep east across the
forecast area from 12-18Z. Surface analysis shows a stationary front
draped across the northern portion of the FL Peninsula. A wave on
the front west of FL is weakening as energy is transferred to a
deepening low off the SC coast. We are continuing to see some weak
isentropic ascent over the northwestward sloping frontal boundary
aloft. This forcing is combining with that provided by DPVA ahead of
the short wave to maintain a shield of light rain over the lion`s
share of the forecast area as of 06Z. Forcing for ascent will end
from west to east this morning. This will allow for some rapid
clearing. Slight to low chance PoPs were restricted after sunrise to
our GA and eastern FL Big Bend zones and all precipitation should be
east of the area before noon. Despite the long-awaited return of
sunshine, temps will be cool. Most areas will see afternoon highs in
the lower 60s which is 7-10 degrees below normal.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the
local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying
through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at
the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal
temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to
around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most
inland areas Friday morning.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface
high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to
ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected
and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Thursday] MVFR with occasional IFR conditions will
impact VLD during the pre-dawn hours. There may be a brief MVFR
ceiling at TLH and ABY as well, but it is more likely the a mid
level cloud deck will maintain VFR ceilings until sunrise. Clearing
will occur from northwest to southeast from 09-14Z.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise
this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning
for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as
high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the
offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline
criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels
tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds
and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive
today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH
values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel
moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing
transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with
values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and
Big Bend.

&&

.Hydrology...

For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  39  62  33  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  47  60  40  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  40  57  33  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  37  58  32  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  39  60  32  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  39  63  33  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  48  61  40  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 260816
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
316 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A broad long wave trough remains in place across much of the central
and eastern CONUS this morning. A final short wave trough is moving
east through its base and is poised to sweep east across the
forecast area from 12-18Z. Surface analysis shows a stationary front
draped across the northern portion of the FL Peninsula. A wave on
the front west of FL is weakening as energy is transferred to a
deepening low off the SC coast. We are continuing to see some weak
isentropic ascent over the northwestward sloping frontal boundary
aloft. This forcing is combining with that provided by DPVA ahead of
the short wave to maintain a shield of light rain over the lion`s
share of the forecast area as of 06Z. Forcing for ascent will end
from west to east this morning. This will allow for some rapid
clearing. Slight to low chance PoPs were restricted after sunrise to
our GA and eastern FL Big Bend zones and all precipitation should be
east of the area before noon. Despite the long-awaited return of
sunshine, temps will be cool. Most areas will see afternoon highs in
the lower 60s which is 7-10 degrees below normal.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the
local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying
through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at
the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal
temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to
around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most
inland areas Friday morning.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface
high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to
ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected
and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Thursday] MVFR with occasional IFR conditions will
impact VLD during the pre-dawn hours. There may be a brief MVFR
ceiling at TLH and ABY as well, but it is more likely the a mid
level cloud deck will maintain VFR ceilings until sunrise. Clearing
will occur from northwest to southeast from 09-14Z.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise
this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning
for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as
high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the
offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline
criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels
tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds
and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive
today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH
values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel
moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing
transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with
values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and
Big Bend.

&&

.Hydrology...

For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  39  62  33  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  47  60  40  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  40  57  33  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  37  58  32  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  39  60  32  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  39  63  33  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  48  61  40  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 260816
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
316 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A broad long wave trough remains in place across much of the central
and eastern CONUS this morning. A final short wave trough is moving
east through its base and is poised to sweep east across the
forecast area from 12-18Z. Surface analysis shows a stationary front
draped across the northern portion of the FL Peninsula. A wave on
the front west of FL is weakening as energy is transferred to a
deepening low off the SC coast. We are continuing to see some weak
isentropic ascent over the northwestward sloping frontal boundary
aloft. This forcing is combining with that provided by DPVA ahead of
the short wave to maintain a shield of light rain over the lion`s
share of the forecast area as of 06Z. Forcing for ascent will end
from west to east this morning. This will allow for some rapid
clearing. Slight to low chance PoPs were restricted after sunrise to
our GA and eastern FL Big Bend zones and all precipitation should be
east of the area before noon. Despite the long-awaited return of
sunshine, temps will be cool. Most areas will see afternoon highs in
the lower 60s which is 7-10 degrees below normal.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The axis of the upper level trough will finally swing through the
local region tonight with the upper pattern gradually de-amplifying
through the end of the week. High pressure will be building in at
the surface. This will be a dry period with below seasonal
temperatures. Highs both days will only be in the upper 50s to lower
60s despite sunny skies. Lows will will be in the upper 30s to
around 40 inland areas on Thanksgiving at or around freezing most
inland areas Friday morning.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Weak upper ridging in be in place over the southeast CONUS. Surface
high pressure will slowly move to the east but will continue to
ridge westward across the Gulf coastal states. No rain is expected
and we will see temperatures gradually return to seasonal levels.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Thursday] MVFR with occasional IFR conditions will
impact VLD during the pre-dawn hours. There may be a brief MVFR
ceiling at TLH and ABY as well, but it is more likely the a mid
level cloud deck will maintain VFR ceilings until sunrise. Clearing
will occur from northwest to southeast from 09-14Z.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level wind and waves will continue until around sunrise
this morning across the near shore waters and until late morning
for the offshore segments. During this time, seas will peak as
high as 11 feet with gusts to gale force possible over the
offshore waters. Winds and seas should briefly fall below headline
criteria by this afternoon only to rise again to cautionary levels
tonight through Thursday night across the offshore waters. Winds
and seas should be low over the entire marine area for the
upcoming weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

After several days of wetting rains, drier air will finally arrive
today and remain in place through at least Friday. However, RH
values are not forecast to reach critical levels. Additionally, fuel
moisture will be quite high given recent rainfall. Increasing
transport winds will result in high dispersion indices today with
values above 75 across much of Southeast AL and the FL Panhandle and
Big Bend.

&&

.Hydrology...

For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  39  62  33  59 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  47  60  40  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        61  40  57  33  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        61  37  58  32  56 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      61  39  60  32  57 /  30   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  39  63  33  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  48  61  40  58 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 260805
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
305 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THANKSGIVING DAY)...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR IS PUSHING THROUGH HILLSBOROUGH
AND MANATEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHIFT SMARTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LINE AND WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL. ONE
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR TO
COINCIDE WITH THE ENDING OF THE RAIN. IN THIS CASE...HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OVERCAST SKIES WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CREATING LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING
NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME...AND STEADY RAINS WILL BE MOVING ALL THE
WAY BACK INTO LEVY COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHORT-WAVE WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY BRINGING
AN END TO OUR RAINS. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE STRONG AND GUSTY EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST PULLS AWAY.

STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY...AND WE
COULD SEE SOME HIGH SURF BEFORE THE WAVE ENERGY TURNS MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND BYPASSES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.

ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE COULD SEE
SOME MID 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE 40 DEGREES.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS QUITE NICE IF NOT JUST A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY/THUR
EVENING WILL NOW BE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONE FINAL SURGE OF CAA
ARRIVING ON STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON
THE CHILLY SIDE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...AND EVEN COLDER 30S TO THE NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. CURRENT FORECAST ALLOWS PARTS OF LEVY COUNTY TO
APPROACH FREEZING...BUT THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT WINDS STILL
IN PLACE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP FROST MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE DOWN INTO THE
30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 20S NORTH OF I-4 AROUND
SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS CAA SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS. THOSE WITH BOATING PLANS
LATE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE DEVELOPING
MORE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL
PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE GA/CAROLINA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RIDGED IN NATURE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE SE
CONUS COAST. THE STACKED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. THE RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER WITH VERY LOW
LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
LIFT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z IS FAIRLY HIGH BUT
TIMING OF WHEN THESE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT IS LOW. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ALONG OUR COAST WITH WINDS RAPIDLY MEETING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN FACT...BUOY 42036 HAS SEEN WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 39 KNOTS...AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN OUR
WATERS TODAY.

WE WILL SEE AN INITIAL LULL IN THE WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGS HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG 30 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING OUR WINDS BACK AROUND
TO THE EAST AT MORE FAVORABLE SPEEDS FOR BOATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY WET FUELS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  48  68  44 /  60   0   0   0
FMY  69  48  72  47 /  70   0   0   0
GIF  67  45  68  42 /  80   0   0   0
SRQ  65  46  70  46 /  60   0   0   0
BKV  60  36  67  36 /  70   0   0   0
SPG  62  54  67  50 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 260805
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
305 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - THANKSGIVING DAY)...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR IS PUSHING THROUGH HILLSBOROUGH
AND MANATEE COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHIFT SMARTLY TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE LINE AND WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AS WELL. ONE
WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR TO
COINCIDE WITH THE ENDING OF THE RAIN. IN THIS CASE...HOWEVER...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OVERCAST SKIES WITH RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF CREATING LARGE-SCALE LIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT. COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN EXPANDING
NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME...AND STEADY RAINS WILL BE MOVING ALL THE
WAY BACK INTO LEVY COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SHORT-WAVE WILL
BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FINALLY BRINGING
AN END TO OUR RAINS. SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST TODAY...BUT CLOUDS MAY LINGER OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE STRONG AND GUSTY EARLY IN
THE DAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST PULLS AWAY.

STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE BEACHES TODAY...AND WE
COULD SEE SOME HIGH SURF BEFORE THE WAVE ENERGY TURNS MORE TO THE
SOUTH AND BYPASSES THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.

ANY LEFTOVER CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY. WE COULD SEE
SOME MID 30S IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST...BUT MOST AREAS WILL STAY ABOVE 40 DEGREES.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS QUITE NICE IF NOT JUST A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO DEAMPLIFY AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST AND NORTHEAST OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY/THUR
EVENING WILL NOW BE SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH ONE FINAL SURGE OF CAA
ARRIVING ON STEADY NORTHERLY WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE ON
THE CHILLY SIDE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S...AND EVEN COLDER 30S TO THE NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. CURRENT FORECAST ALLOWS PARTS OF LEVY COUNTY TO
APPROACH FREEZING...BUT THIS WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW AROUND SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT WINDS STILL
IN PLACE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WILL KEEP FROST MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE DOWN INTO THE
30S FOR MANY LOCATIONS...WITH MID/UPPER 20S NORTH OF I-4 AROUND
SUNRISE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS CAA SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE WINDS AND SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS. THOSE WITH BOATING PLANS
LATE THANKSGIVING DAY AND NIGHT SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE DEVELOPING
MORE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL
PENINSULA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
THE GA/CAROLINA COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A SLOW MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
RAIN FREE CONDITIONS.

GLOBAL GUIDANCE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER PATTERN
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RIDGED IN NATURE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE THE SE
CONUS COAST. THE STACKED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION WITH
CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE BACK TO NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. THE RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ALSO LINGER WITH VERY LOW
LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND LITTLE TO NO SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
LIFT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING
BEFORE CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN LOW CLOUDS THROUGH 12Z IS FAIRLY HIGH BUT
TIMING OF WHEN THESE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY MOVE OUT IS LOW. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AFFECT TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE
DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
INITIAL SURGE OF NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ALONG OUR COAST WITH WINDS RAPIDLY MEETING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN FACT...BUOY 42036 HAS SEEN WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 39 KNOTS...AND GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN OUR
WATERS TODAY.

WE WILL SEE AN INITIAL LULL IN THE WINDS TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS BRINGS HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FINALLY SETTLE INTO THE ATLANTIC ALONG 30 DEGREES
NORTH LATITUDE DURING THE WEEKEND BRINGING OUR WINDS BACK AROUND
TO THE EAST AT MORE FAVORABLE SPEEDS FOR BOATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY WET FUELS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO AROUND 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  48  68  44 /  60   0   0   0
FMY  69  48  72  47 /  70   0   0   0
GIF  67  45  68  42 /  80   0   0   0
SRQ  65  46  70  46 /  60   0   0   0
BKV  60  36  67  36 /  70   0   0   0
SPG  62  54  67  50 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
     INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KJAX 260719
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
EASTERN GULF. A LINE OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO EJECT TO THE
NE. FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN PREVAILS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...MAINLY AFFECTING
INTERIOR SE GA OVERNIGHT. IN BETWEEN...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. WITH THE HEAVY PRECIP TO THE
SOUTH...WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...EJECTING NE THIS AFTN. WILL USE HIGH POPS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY/LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...THINK
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
OF A WARMUP TODAY AS COLD ADVECTION WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/AROUND
40 INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 40S COAST. SUNNY...BREEZY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 FOR SE GA AND LOWER/MID 60S FOR NE FL.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH. EXPECTING LOWS NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE. AS THE HIGH
SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST...THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR
FREEZING FURTHER INLAND...AND MILDER NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO
REMAIN LARGELY DRY...BUT PRIMARILY COASTAL SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS SATURDAY...WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO
MVFR...WITH VFR IN THE AFTN/TNGT AS SKIES SCATTERED/CLEAR OUT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNRISE...WITH NW WINDS 12-17 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT LATE MORNING/AFTN....DECREASING BY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING SCA OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FRIDAY TO UNDER SCA...WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AND ELEVATED SURF. LOW RISK THURSDAY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW AND REDUCED SURF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  40  58  34 /  60   0   0   0
SSI  59  44  59  38 /  60   0   0   0
JAX  61  40  61  34 /  60   0   0   0
SGJ  60  43  63  41 /  60   0   0   0
GNV  61  39  63  34 /  60   0   0   0
OCF  63  39  65  35 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE






000
FXUS62 KJAX 260719
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
EASTERN GULF. A LINE OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO EJECT TO THE
NE. FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN PREVAILS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...MAINLY AFFECTING
INTERIOR SE GA OVERNIGHT. IN BETWEEN...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. WITH THE HEAVY PRECIP TO THE
SOUTH...WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...EJECTING NE THIS AFTN. WILL USE HIGH POPS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY/LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...THINK
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
OF A WARMUP TODAY AS COLD ADVECTION WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/AROUND
40 INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 40S COAST. SUNNY...BREEZY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 FOR SE GA AND LOWER/MID 60S FOR NE FL.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH. EXPECTING LOWS NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE. AS THE HIGH
SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST...THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR
FREEZING FURTHER INLAND...AND MILDER NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO
REMAIN LARGELY DRY...BUT PRIMARILY COASTAL SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS SATURDAY...WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO
MVFR...WITH VFR IN THE AFTN/TNGT AS SKIES SCATTERED/CLEAR OUT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNRISE...WITH NW WINDS 12-17 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT LATE MORNING/AFTN....DECREASING BY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING SCA OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FRIDAY TO UNDER SCA...WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AND ELEVATED SURF. LOW RISK THURSDAY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW AND REDUCED SURF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  40  58  34 /  60   0   0   0
SSI  59  44  59  38 /  60   0   0   0
JAX  61  40  61  34 /  60   0   0   0
SGJ  60  43  63  41 /  60   0   0   0
GNV  61  39  63  34 /  60   0   0   0
OCF  63  39  65  35 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE






000
FXUS62 KJAX 260719
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
EASTERN GULF. A LINE OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO EJECT TO THE
NE. FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN PREVAILS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...MAINLY AFFECTING
INTERIOR SE GA OVERNIGHT. IN BETWEEN...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. WITH THE HEAVY PRECIP TO THE
SOUTH...WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...EJECTING NE THIS AFTN. WILL USE HIGH POPS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY/LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...THINK
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
OF A WARMUP TODAY AS COLD ADVECTION WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/AROUND
40 INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 40S COAST. SUNNY...BREEZY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 FOR SE GA AND LOWER/MID 60S FOR NE FL.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH. EXPECTING LOWS NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE. AS THE HIGH
SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST...THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR
FREEZING FURTHER INLAND...AND MILDER NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO
REMAIN LARGELY DRY...BUT PRIMARILY COASTAL SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS SATURDAY...WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO
MVFR...WITH VFR IN THE AFTN/TNGT AS SKIES SCATTERED/CLEAR OUT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNRISE...WITH NW WINDS 12-17 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT LATE MORNING/AFTN....DECREASING BY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING SCA OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FRIDAY TO UNDER SCA...WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AND ELEVATED SURF. LOW RISK THURSDAY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW AND REDUCED SURF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  40  58  34 /  60   0   0   0
SSI  59  44  59  38 /  60   0   0   0
JAX  61  40  61  34 /  60   0   0   0
SGJ  60  43  63  41 /  60   0   0   0
GNV  61  39  63  34 /  60   0   0   0
OCF  63  39  65  35 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE






000
FXUS62 KJAX 260719
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT/LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
EASTERN GULF. A LINE OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE SURFACE LOW IS BEGINNING TO EJECT TO THE
NE. FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...A SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN PREVAILS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...MAINLY AFFECTING
INTERIOR SE GA OVERNIGHT. IN BETWEEN...VERY LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF NE FL. WITH THE HEAVY PRECIP TO THE
SOUTH...WILL CANCEL THE FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...EJECTING NE THIS AFTN. WILL USE HIGH POPS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS FOR MOST AREAS FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN...WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL.
PRECIP WILL RAPIDLY DECREASE THIS AFTN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST CONUS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH BREEZY/LOCALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. HOWEVER...THINK
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
OF A WARMUP TODAY AS COLD ADVECTION WORKS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S/AROUND
40 INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 40S COAST. SUNNY...BREEZY AND COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THANKSGIVING DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 FOR SE GA AND LOWER/MID 60S FOR NE FL.


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
COOLER AIR FILTERING SOUTH. EXPECTING LOWS NEAR FREEZING AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL DESPITE SUNSHINE. AS THE HIGH
SLIDES TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN US COAST...THE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR
FREEZING FURTHER INLAND...AND MILDER NEAR THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT THIS PERIOD TO
REMAIN LARGELY DRY...BUT PRIMARILY COASTAL SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT LATER IN THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS SATURDAY...WITH READINGS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS
IN MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATE MORNING TO
MVFR...WITH VFR IN THE AFTN/TNGT AS SKIES SCATTERED/CLEAR OUT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY SUNRISE...WITH NW WINDS 12-17 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 KT LATE MORNING/AFTN....DECREASING BY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SCA
CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING SCA OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OFFSHORE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
INTENSIFIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE FRIDAY TO UNDER SCA...WITH A LIGHT WIND REGIME FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY WITH RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AND ELEVATED SURF. LOW RISK THURSDAY WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW AND REDUCED SURF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  40  58  34 /  60   0   0   0
SSI  59  44  59  38 /  60   0   0   0
JAX  61  40  61  34 /  60   0   0   0
SGJ  60  43  63  41 /  60   0   0   0
GNV  61  39  63  34 /  60   0   0   0
OCF  63  39  65  35 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE






000
FXUS62 KMFL 260541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1241 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
POSSIBLE. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF +TSRA WITH IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND
TOWARDS DAWN EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING MUCH SLOWER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THAN GUIDANCE PROJECTS, AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL
RUNS. THEREFORE HAVE SLOWED CHC AND LIKELY POPS BY ABOUT 6HRS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND EXTREME NW POPS WERE
LEFT ALONE. WITH THE DEEP WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE STRAITS AND PERHAPS
WILL CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI DADE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED. WITH THE FRONT CROSSING AT THE
MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME TOMORROW MORNING, AND THE
MID LEVEL UVV/VORTICITY QUICKLY WEAKENING, NOT EXPECTING MUCH
LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE
REFLECTED IN THE MODELS, WITH QPF QUICKLY DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE
EAST COAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANY CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM
WITH DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN RESERVED ACROSS THE NW CWA AND
LAKE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT LESS CERTAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE
PAST TWO NIGHTS SHOWING IFR TO ONLY NOT OCCUR AT MOST LOCALES.
FOR THIS REASON, WENT WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH A SCT005 AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF WITH CONVECTION ALL THE
WAY TO THE YUCATAN. AS THIS SLIDES EAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FL. HOWEVER, THE
STORMS IN THE GULF ARE ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND
POLYGON TIME TRACKING SUGGESTS A LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR KAPF AND NOT UNTIL DAWN FOR THE EAST COAST. LATEST HRRR RUN
SHOWS NO QPF EAST COAST UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH OUR TIMING ANALYSIS, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS. IFR OR LIFR
VIS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER TSRA WHICH MOVES THROUGH WITH
IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHEST FROM 05-09Z AT KAPF AND 09-14Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. GREATEST THREAT KAPF TO KFLL AND POINTS
NORTH. GUST WIND POTENTIAL ~40KT POSSIBLE. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WOULD BE BRIEF THOUGH. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION! /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  49  73  51  71 /  10   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  55  75  56  71 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            56  76  57  72 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           48  73  50  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 260541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1241 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
POSSIBLE. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF +TSRA WITH IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND
TOWARDS DAWN EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING MUCH SLOWER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THAN GUIDANCE PROJECTS, AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL
RUNS. THEREFORE HAVE SLOWED CHC AND LIKELY POPS BY ABOUT 6HRS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND EXTREME NW POPS WERE
LEFT ALONE. WITH THE DEEP WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE STRAITS AND PERHAPS
WILL CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI DADE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED. WITH THE FRONT CROSSING AT THE
MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME TOMORROW MORNING, AND THE
MID LEVEL UVV/VORTICITY QUICKLY WEAKENING, NOT EXPECTING MUCH
LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE
REFLECTED IN THE MODELS, WITH QPF QUICKLY DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE
EAST COAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANY CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM
WITH DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN RESERVED ACROSS THE NW CWA AND
LAKE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT LESS CERTAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE
PAST TWO NIGHTS SHOWING IFR TO ONLY NOT OCCUR AT MOST LOCALES.
FOR THIS REASON, WENT WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH A SCT005 AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF WITH CONVECTION ALL THE
WAY TO THE YUCATAN. AS THIS SLIDES EAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FL. HOWEVER, THE
STORMS IN THE GULF ARE ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND
POLYGON TIME TRACKING SUGGESTS A LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR KAPF AND NOT UNTIL DAWN FOR THE EAST COAST. LATEST HRRR RUN
SHOWS NO QPF EAST COAST UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH OUR TIMING ANALYSIS, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS. IFR OR LIFR
VIS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER TSRA WHICH MOVES THROUGH WITH
IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHEST FROM 05-09Z AT KAPF AND 09-14Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. GREATEST THREAT KAPF TO KFLL AND POINTS
NORTH. GUST WIND POTENTIAL ~40KT POSSIBLE. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WOULD BE BRIEF THOUGH. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION! /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  49  73  51  71 /  10   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  55  75  56  71 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            56  76  57  72 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           48  73  50  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 260541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1241 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
POSSIBLE. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF +TSRA WITH IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND
TOWARDS DAWN EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING MUCH SLOWER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THAN GUIDANCE PROJECTS, AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL
RUNS. THEREFORE HAVE SLOWED CHC AND LIKELY POPS BY ABOUT 6HRS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND EXTREME NW POPS WERE
LEFT ALONE. WITH THE DEEP WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE STRAITS AND PERHAPS
WILL CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI DADE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED. WITH THE FRONT CROSSING AT THE
MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME TOMORROW MORNING, AND THE
MID LEVEL UVV/VORTICITY QUICKLY WEAKENING, NOT EXPECTING MUCH
LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE
REFLECTED IN THE MODELS, WITH QPF QUICKLY DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE
EAST COAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANY CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM
WITH DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN RESERVED ACROSS THE NW CWA AND
LAKE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT LESS CERTAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE
PAST TWO NIGHTS SHOWING IFR TO ONLY NOT OCCUR AT MOST LOCALES.
FOR THIS REASON, WENT WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH A SCT005 AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF WITH CONVECTION ALL THE
WAY TO THE YUCATAN. AS THIS SLIDES EAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FL. HOWEVER, THE
STORMS IN THE GULF ARE ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND
POLYGON TIME TRACKING SUGGESTS A LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR KAPF AND NOT UNTIL DAWN FOR THE EAST COAST. LATEST HRRR RUN
SHOWS NO QPF EAST COAST UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH OUR TIMING ANALYSIS, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS. IFR OR LIFR
VIS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER TSRA WHICH MOVES THROUGH WITH
IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHEST FROM 05-09Z AT KAPF AND 09-14Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. GREATEST THREAT KAPF TO KFLL AND POINTS
NORTH. GUST WIND POTENTIAL ~40KT POSSIBLE. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WOULD BE BRIEF THOUGH. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION! /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  49  73  51  71 /  10   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  55  75  56  71 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            56  76  57  72 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           48  73  50  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 260541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1241 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
POSSIBLE. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. IT`S HOLDING ITS OWN, SO A BRIEF PERIOD
OF +TSRA WITH IFR OR LIFR ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 KT IS
POSSIBLE AS THE LINE MOVES BY...DURING THIS OVERNIGHT AT KAPF AND
TOWARDS DAWN EAST COAST TERMINALS. A FEW SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE
TERMINALS AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND BY AFTERNOON WED AT ALL TERMINALS. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING MUCH SLOWER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THAN GUIDANCE PROJECTS, AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL
RUNS. THEREFORE HAVE SLOWED CHC AND LIKELY POPS BY ABOUT 6HRS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND EXTREME NW POPS WERE
LEFT ALONE. WITH THE DEEP WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE STRAITS AND PERHAPS
WILL CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI DADE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED. WITH THE FRONT CROSSING AT THE
MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME TOMORROW MORNING, AND THE
MID LEVEL UVV/VORTICITY QUICKLY WEAKENING, NOT EXPECTING MUCH
LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE
REFLECTED IN THE MODELS, WITH QPF QUICKLY DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE
EAST COAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANY CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM
WITH DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN RESERVED ACROSS THE NW CWA AND
LAKE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT LESS CERTAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE
PAST TWO NIGHTS SHOWING IFR TO ONLY NOT OCCUR AT MOST LOCALES.
FOR THIS REASON, WENT WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH A SCT005 AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF WITH CONVECTION ALL THE
WAY TO THE YUCATAN. AS THIS SLIDES EAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FL. HOWEVER, THE
STORMS IN THE GULF ARE ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND
POLYGON TIME TRACKING SUGGESTS A LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR KAPF AND NOT UNTIL DAWN FOR THE EAST COAST. LATEST HRRR RUN
SHOWS NO QPF EAST COAST UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH OUR TIMING ANALYSIS, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS. IFR OR LIFR
VIS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER TSRA WHICH MOVES THROUGH WITH
IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHEST FROM 05-09Z AT KAPF AND 09-14Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. GREATEST THREAT KAPF TO KFLL AND POINTS
NORTH. GUST WIND POTENTIAL ~40KT POSSIBLE. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WOULD BE BRIEF THOUGH. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION! /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  49  73  51  71 /  10   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  55  75  56  71 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            56  76  57  72 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           48  73  50  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
     THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KTAE 260325
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1025 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Strong shortave rounding the base of the persistent central U.S.
trough is helping to induce sfc cyclogenesis over the Florida
Peninsula this evening. This feature is also providing the lift
for one more round of light to moderate rain across the forecast
area. As this shortwave exits the area late tonight, expect to see
the rain come to an end, followed shortly by clearing skies. Back
edge of clouds is currently moving into eastern Mississippi. Made
a few adjustments to the PoPs this evening based on radar trends,
but no other significant changes were needed.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday] Remaining low cigs at KTLH and KVLD will
slowly lift with VFR conditions expected at all terminals by
around 10-12UTC. Remaining light rain will also come to an end
overnight, with dry conditions on Wednesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [240 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
There is a 20-30% chance of rain for our eastern zones Wednesday
morning from the wrap around moisture associated with the cold
front, but once the system lifts off to the northeast in the
afternoon, we will start to notice the colder, drier air moving in
as surface high pressure starts to build eastward. This airmass
won`t be as cold as last week`s cold front, but highs will struggle
to reach 60 both Wednesday and on Thanksgiving despite clearing
skies. Lows will return to the mid to upper 30s, with a light
freeze (brushing around 32F for an hour or so) even possible in
our northwestern zones Thursday night.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern
states through the long term period. There are no significant
chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and
moisture will begin to increase again early next week. The airmass
will be cool and dry through Friday night, with highs in the upper
50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the
weekend however, the airmass will begin to modify and we will
warm up a bit to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the
40s to around 50.


.Marine...
Winds and waves will continue to ramp up overnight, with seas
peaking at 7 to 9 feet occasionally as high as 11 feet and gusts to
gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds will begin to
decrease Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, winds and
waves will fall below headline criteria and remain so for the
remainder of the period.


.Fire Weather...
Much drier air will move into the region over the next few days,
with minimum humidity values in the 30s and 40s. However, with very
wet fuel conditions, there are no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...
For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  60  36  63  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
Panama City   43  62  46  62  41 / 100   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  59  38  58  34 / 100   0   0   0   0
Albany        42  59  35  60  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  60  36  61  35 / 100  20   0   0   0
Cross City    49  63  36  64  34 /  90  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  47  62  46  62  40 / 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 260325
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1025 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Strong shortave rounding the base of the persistent central U.S.
trough is helping to induce sfc cyclogenesis over the Florida
Peninsula this evening. This feature is also providing the lift
for one more round of light to moderate rain across the forecast
area. As this shortwave exits the area late tonight, expect to see
the rain come to an end, followed shortly by clearing skies. Back
edge of clouds is currently moving into eastern Mississippi. Made
a few adjustments to the PoPs this evening based on radar trends,
but no other significant changes were needed.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday] Remaining low cigs at KTLH and KVLD will
slowly lift with VFR conditions expected at all terminals by
around 10-12UTC. Remaining light rain will also come to an end
overnight, with dry conditions on Wednesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [240 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
There is a 20-30% chance of rain for our eastern zones Wednesday
morning from the wrap around moisture associated with the cold
front, but once the system lifts off to the northeast in the
afternoon, we will start to notice the colder, drier air moving in
as surface high pressure starts to build eastward. This airmass
won`t be as cold as last week`s cold front, but highs will struggle
to reach 60 both Wednesday and on Thanksgiving despite clearing
skies. Lows will return to the mid to upper 30s, with a light
freeze (brushing around 32F for an hour or so) even possible in
our northwestern zones Thursday night.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern
states through the long term period. There are no significant
chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and
moisture will begin to increase again early next week. The airmass
will be cool and dry through Friday night, with highs in the upper
50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the
weekend however, the airmass will begin to modify and we will
warm up a bit to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the
40s to around 50.


.Marine...
Winds and waves will continue to ramp up overnight, with seas
peaking at 7 to 9 feet occasionally as high as 11 feet and gusts to
gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds will begin to
decrease Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, winds and
waves will fall below headline criteria and remain so for the
remainder of the period.


.Fire Weather...
Much drier air will move into the region over the next few days,
with minimum humidity values in the 30s and 40s. However, with very
wet fuel conditions, there are no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...
For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  60  36  63  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
Panama City   43  62  46  62  41 / 100   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  59  38  58  34 / 100   0   0   0   0
Albany        42  59  35  60  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  60  36  61  35 / 100  20   0   0   0
Cross City    49  63  36  64  34 /  90  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  47  62  46  62  40 / 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 260325
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1025 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Strong shortave rounding the base of the persistent central U.S.
trough is helping to induce sfc cyclogenesis over the Florida
Peninsula this evening. This feature is also providing the lift
for one more round of light to moderate rain across the forecast
area. As this shortwave exits the area late tonight, expect to see
the rain come to an end, followed shortly by clearing skies. Back
edge of clouds is currently moving into eastern Mississippi. Made
a few adjustments to the PoPs this evening based on radar trends,
but no other significant changes were needed.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday] Remaining low cigs at KTLH and KVLD will
slowly lift with VFR conditions expected at all terminals by
around 10-12UTC. Remaining light rain will also come to an end
overnight, with dry conditions on Wednesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [240 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
There is a 20-30% chance of rain for our eastern zones Wednesday
morning from the wrap around moisture associated with the cold
front, but once the system lifts off to the northeast in the
afternoon, we will start to notice the colder, drier air moving in
as surface high pressure starts to build eastward. This airmass
won`t be as cold as last week`s cold front, but highs will struggle
to reach 60 both Wednesday and on Thanksgiving despite clearing
skies. Lows will return to the mid to upper 30s, with a light
freeze (brushing around 32F for an hour or so) even possible in
our northwestern zones Thursday night.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern
states through the long term period. There are no significant
chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and
moisture will begin to increase again early next week. The airmass
will be cool and dry through Friday night, with highs in the upper
50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the
weekend however, the airmass will begin to modify and we will
warm up a bit to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the
40s to around 50.


.Marine...
Winds and waves will continue to ramp up overnight, with seas
peaking at 7 to 9 feet occasionally as high as 11 feet and gusts to
gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds will begin to
decrease Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, winds and
waves will fall below headline criteria and remain so for the
remainder of the period.


.Fire Weather...
Much drier air will move into the region over the next few days,
with minimum humidity values in the 30s and 40s. However, with very
wet fuel conditions, there are no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...
For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  60  36  63  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
Panama City   43  62  46  62  41 / 100   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  59  38  58  34 / 100   0   0   0   0
Albany        42  59  35  60  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  60  36  61  35 / 100  20   0   0   0
Cross City    49  63  36  64  34 /  90  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  47  62  46  62  40 / 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 260325
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1025 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Strong shortave rounding the base of the persistent central U.S.
trough is helping to induce sfc cyclogenesis over the Florida
Peninsula this evening. This feature is also providing the lift
for one more round of light to moderate rain across the forecast
area. As this shortwave exits the area late tonight, expect to see
the rain come to an end, followed shortly by clearing skies. Back
edge of clouds is currently moving into eastern Mississippi. Made
a few adjustments to the PoPs this evening based on radar trends,
but no other significant changes were needed.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday] Remaining low cigs at KTLH and KVLD will
slowly lift with VFR conditions expected at all terminals by
around 10-12UTC. Remaining light rain will also come to an end
overnight, with dry conditions on Wednesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [240 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
There is a 20-30% chance of rain for our eastern zones Wednesday
morning from the wrap around moisture associated with the cold
front, but once the system lifts off to the northeast in the
afternoon, we will start to notice the colder, drier air moving in
as surface high pressure starts to build eastward. This airmass
won`t be as cold as last week`s cold front, but highs will struggle
to reach 60 both Wednesday and on Thanksgiving despite clearing
skies. Lows will return to the mid to upper 30s, with a light
freeze (brushing around 32F for an hour or so) even possible in
our northwestern zones Thursday night.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern
states through the long term period. There are no significant
chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and
moisture will begin to increase again early next week. The airmass
will be cool and dry through Friday night, with highs in the upper
50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the
weekend however, the airmass will begin to modify and we will
warm up a bit to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the
40s to around 50.


.Marine...
Winds and waves will continue to ramp up overnight, with seas
peaking at 7 to 9 feet occasionally as high as 11 feet and gusts to
gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds will begin to
decrease Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, winds and
waves will fall below headline criteria and remain so for the
remainder of the period.


.Fire Weather...
Much drier air will move into the region over the next few days,
with minimum humidity values in the 30s and 40s. However, with very
wet fuel conditions, there are no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...
For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  60  36  63  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
Panama City   43  62  46  62  41 / 100   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  59  38  58  34 / 100   0   0   0   0
Albany        42  59  35  60  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  60  36  61  35 / 100  20   0   0   0
Cross City    49  63  36  64  34 /  90  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  47  62  46  62  40 / 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KKEY 260318
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLOUDING UP ACROSS THE KEYS...AS KBYX RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A BLOSSOMING OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE KEYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY
DECREASED TO 5 TO 10 KNOT ACROSS THE KEYS IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND ARE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ARE BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHERLY IN
THEIR CLOCKING MOTION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. DATA IS SPARSE IN THAT AREA HOWEVER...AND THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THIS LOW IS DUBIOUS AT BEST. CURRENT WIND
FIELDS PRESUMABLY ARE OBSCURED BY SHOWER OUTFLOWS...AND MSLP SENSORS
IN THE AREA ARE ERRATIC BUT THE APPEARANCE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF A
SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOSTLY TRAINING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PORT CHARLOTTE AND SARASOTA COASTLINE...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WARM SECTOR FLOW IS STILL KEEPING
THE KEYS SEASONALLY WARM NEAR 80...AND MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND
THE MID 70S. EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED AN OVERALL PWAT VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES...WITH MOST MOISTURE FOUND BELOW 600 MB... AND SIGNIFICANT
VEERING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...GIVING RAPIDLY TO UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
ABOVE 950 MB OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...
THE MOTION OF THIS QUICKLY-DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD SEE IT RAPIDLY
TRANSIT CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND EJECTED OFF THE JACKSONVILLE
COASTLINE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 06-09Z. REGARDLESS OF THE
INTENSITY OF THIS SURFACE LOW OR ITS MOTION...THERE IS VERY LITTLE
DOUBT THAT A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...THEN WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THIS FRONT IS SET TO TRANSIT
DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND APPROACH THE KEYS BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY WITH SOME MODEST ISOTROPIC
LIFTING ARE ALL EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT.
DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE KEYS...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z AND
16Z...EXPECT THAT ITS RAPID MOTION WILL INSPIRE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. TOTAL COVERAGE
WILL BE BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE INTEGRITY OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND CONFLUENCE FIELDS HOWEVER. A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR BOTH
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON UPDATING THE FORECAST PENDING FURTHER CLARITY OVERNIGHT. AS IT
STANDS...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PUBLIC FORECAST AND GRIDS...WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED FOR PERIODS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE KEYS...WITH THE
EARLIEST WIND INCREASES EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF
WATERS AFTER 9Z. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DIFFERENT
THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONTS THIS SEASON...WITH A RAPID SHIFT AND
INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN MAINLY BETWEEN 11
AND 16Z. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND IN-KIND TO THE WINDS...BUILDING RAPIDLY
TO AROUND 10 FEET IN THE DEEPEST PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY
15Z...WITH THESE SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS THE STRAITS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE KEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
GUSTY. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CEILINGS AROUND FL050 PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260318
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLOUDING UP ACROSS THE KEYS...AS KBYX RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A BLOSSOMING OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE KEYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY
DECREASED TO 5 TO 10 KNOT ACROSS THE KEYS IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND ARE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ARE BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHERLY IN
THEIR CLOCKING MOTION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. DATA IS SPARSE IN THAT AREA HOWEVER...AND THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THIS LOW IS DUBIOUS AT BEST. CURRENT WIND
FIELDS PRESUMABLY ARE OBSCURED BY SHOWER OUTFLOWS...AND MSLP SENSORS
IN THE AREA ARE ERRATIC BUT THE APPEARANCE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF A
SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOSTLY TRAINING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PORT CHARLOTTE AND SARASOTA COASTLINE...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WARM SECTOR FLOW IS STILL KEEPING
THE KEYS SEASONALLY WARM NEAR 80...AND MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND
THE MID 70S. EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED AN OVERALL PWAT VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES...WITH MOST MOISTURE FOUND BELOW 600 MB... AND SIGNIFICANT
VEERING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...GIVING RAPIDLY TO UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
ABOVE 950 MB OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...
THE MOTION OF THIS QUICKLY-DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD SEE IT RAPIDLY
TRANSIT CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND EJECTED OFF THE JACKSONVILLE
COASTLINE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 06-09Z. REGARDLESS OF THE
INTENSITY OF THIS SURFACE LOW OR ITS MOTION...THERE IS VERY LITTLE
DOUBT THAT A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...THEN WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THIS FRONT IS SET TO TRANSIT
DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND APPROACH THE KEYS BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY WITH SOME MODEST ISOTROPIC
LIFTING ARE ALL EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT.
DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE KEYS...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z AND
16Z...EXPECT THAT ITS RAPID MOTION WILL INSPIRE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. TOTAL COVERAGE
WILL BE BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE INTEGRITY OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND CONFLUENCE FIELDS HOWEVER. A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR BOTH
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON UPDATING THE FORECAST PENDING FURTHER CLARITY OVERNIGHT. AS IT
STANDS...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PUBLIC FORECAST AND GRIDS...WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED FOR PERIODS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE KEYS...WITH THE
EARLIEST WIND INCREASES EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF
WATERS AFTER 9Z. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DIFFERENT
THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONTS THIS SEASON...WITH A RAPID SHIFT AND
INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN MAINLY BETWEEN 11
AND 16Z. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND IN-KIND TO THE WINDS...BUILDING RAPIDLY
TO AROUND 10 FEET IN THE DEEPEST PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY
15Z...WITH THESE SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS THE STRAITS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE KEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
GUSTY. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CEILINGS AROUND FL050 PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260318
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLOUDING UP ACROSS THE KEYS...AS KBYX RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A BLOSSOMING OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE KEYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY
DECREASED TO 5 TO 10 KNOT ACROSS THE KEYS IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND ARE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ARE BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHERLY IN
THEIR CLOCKING MOTION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. DATA IS SPARSE IN THAT AREA HOWEVER...AND THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THIS LOW IS DUBIOUS AT BEST. CURRENT WIND
FIELDS PRESUMABLY ARE OBSCURED BY SHOWER OUTFLOWS...AND MSLP SENSORS
IN THE AREA ARE ERRATIC BUT THE APPEARANCE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF A
SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOSTLY TRAINING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PORT CHARLOTTE AND SARASOTA COASTLINE...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WARM SECTOR FLOW IS STILL KEEPING
THE KEYS SEASONALLY WARM NEAR 80...AND MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND
THE MID 70S. EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED AN OVERALL PWAT VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES...WITH MOST MOISTURE FOUND BELOW 600 MB... AND SIGNIFICANT
VEERING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...GIVING RAPIDLY TO UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
ABOVE 950 MB OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...
THE MOTION OF THIS QUICKLY-DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD SEE IT RAPIDLY
TRANSIT CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND EJECTED OFF THE JACKSONVILLE
COASTLINE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 06-09Z. REGARDLESS OF THE
INTENSITY OF THIS SURFACE LOW OR ITS MOTION...THERE IS VERY LITTLE
DOUBT THAT A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...THEN WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THIS FRONT IS SET TO TRANSIT
DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND APPROACH THE KEYS BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY WITH SOME MODEST ISOTROPIC
LIFTING ARE ALL EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT.
DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE KEYS...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z AND
16Z...EXPECT THAT ITS RAPID MOTION WILL INSPIRE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. TOTAL COVERAGE
WILL BE BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE INTEGRITY OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND CONFLUENCE FIELDS HOWEVER. A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR BOTH
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON UPDATING THE FORECAST PENDING FURTHER CLARITY OVERNIGHT. AS IT
STANDS...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PUBLIC FORECAST AND GRIDS...WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED FOR PERIODS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE KEYS...WITH THE
EARLIEST WIND INCREASES EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF
WATERS AFTER 9Z. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DIFFERENT
THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONTS THIS SEASON...WITH A RAPID SHIFT AND
INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN MAINLY BETWEEN 11
AND 16Z. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND IN-KIND TO THE WINDS...BUILDING RAPIDLY
TO AROUND 10 FEET IN THE DEEPEST PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY
15Z...WITH THESE SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS THE STRAITS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE KEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
GUSTY. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CEILINGS AROUND FL050 PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 260318
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE QUICKLY CLOUDING UP ACROSS THE KEYS...AS KBYX RADAR IS ALSO
SHOWING A BLOSSOMING OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE KEYS AND NEARSHORE WATERS. SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY
DECREASED TO 5 TO 10 KNOT ACROSS THE KEYS IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND ARE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ARE BEGINNING TO TURN SOUTHERLY IN
THEIR CLOCKING MOTION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT FRONT. ALL MODELS SUGGEST THE
PRESENCE OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. DATA IS SPARSE IN THAT AREA HOWEVER...AND THE
SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THIS LOW IS DUBIOUS AT BEST. CURRENT WIND
FIELDS PRESUMABLY ARE OBSCURED BY SHOWER OUTFLOWS...AND MSLP SENSORS
IN THE AREA ARE ERRATIC BUT THE APPEARANCE IS MORE INDICATIVE OF A
SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW OR PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOSTLY TRAINING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PORT CHARLOTTE AND SARASOTA COASTLINE...AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WARM SECTOR FLOW IS STILL KEEPING
THE KEYS SEASONALLY WARM NEAR 80...AND MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND
THE MID 70S. EVENING SOUNDING SHOWED AN OVERALL PWAT VALUE OF 2.03
INCHES...WITH MOST MOISTURE FOUND BELOW 600 MB... AND SIGNIFICANT
VEERING IN THE LOWEST LAYERS...GIVING RAPIDLY TO UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
ABOVE 950 MB OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM...
THE MOTION OF THIS QUICKLY-DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD SEE IT RAPIDLY
TRANSIT CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND EJECTED OFF THE JACKSONVILLE
COASTLINE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 06-09Z. REGARDLESS OF THE
INTENSITY OF THIS SURFACE LOW OR ITS MOTION...THERE IS VERY LITTLE
DOUBT THAT A ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT...THEN WILL
PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THIS FRONT IS SET TO TRANSIT
DOWN THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND APPROACH THE KEYS BY MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY WITH SOME MODEST ISOTROPIC
LIFTING ARE ALL EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT.
DURING ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE KEYS...MAINLY BETWEEN 14Z AND
16Z...EXPECT THAT ITS RAPID MOTION WILL INSPIRE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO FORM ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. TOTAL COVERAGE
WILL BE BE ENTIRELY DEPENDENT UPON THE INTEGRITY OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND CONFLUENCE FIELDS HOWEVER. A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR BOTH
LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TOMORROW...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON UPDATING THE FORECAST PENDING FURTHER CLARITY OVERNIGHT. AS IT
STANDS...ONLY MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PUBLIC FORECAST AND GRIDS...WITH NO CHANGES REQUIRED FOR PERIODS
THEREAFTER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE KEYS...WITH THE
EARLIEST WIND INCREASES EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF
WATERS AFTER 9Z. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE DIFFERENT
THAN THE PREVIOUS FRONTS THIS SEASON...WITH A RAPID SHIFT AND
INCREASE IN WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN MAINLY BETWEEN 11
AND 16Z. SEAS SHOULD RESPOND IN-KIND TO THE WINDS...BUILDING RAPIDLY
TO AROUND 10 FEET IN THE DEEPEST PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF BY
15Z...WITH THESE SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS THE STRAITS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THIS FRONT...BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 5 TO 10
KNOTS...BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE KEYS WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER DAYBREAK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND
GUSTY. TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS WITH TEMPO GROUPS AT BOTH TERMINALS. THE MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD ABATE LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
VFR CEILINGS AROUND FL050 PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 260309
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1009 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING MUCH SLOWER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
THAN GUIDANCE PROJECTS, AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL
RUNS. THEREFORE HAVE SLOWED CHC AND LIKELY POPS BY ABOUT 6HRS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND EXTREME NW POPS WERE
LEFT ALONE. WITH THE DEEP WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE STRAITS AND PERHAPS
WILL CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI DADE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ALTHOUGH SCATTERED. WITH THE FRONT CROSSING AT THE
MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME TOMORROW MORNING, AND THE
MID LEVEL UVV/VORTICITY QUICKLY WEAKENING, NOT EXPECTING MUCH
LIFT WITH THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SEEMS TO BE
REFLECTED IN THE MODELS, WITH QPF QUICKLY DROPPING OFF ACROSS THE
EAST COAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING. ANY CHANCE FOR A STRONGER STORM
WITH DECENT WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN RESERVED ACROSS THE NW CWA AND
LAKE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT LESS CERTAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE
PAST TWO NIGHTS SHOWING IFR TO ONLY NOT OCCUR AT MOST LOCALES.
FOR THIS REASON, WENT WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH A SCT005 AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF WITH CONVECTION ALL THE
WAY TO THE YUCATAN. AS THIS SLIDES EAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FL. HOWEVER, THE
STORMS IN THE GULF ARE ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND
POLYGON TIME TRACKING SUGGESTS A LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR KAPF AND NOT UNTIL DAWN FOR THE EAST COAST. LATEST HRRR RUN
SHOWS NO QPF EAST COAST UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH OUR TIMING ANALYSIS, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS. IFR OR LIFR
VIS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER TSRA WHICH MOVES THROUGH WITH
IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHEST FROM 05-09Z AT KAPF AND 09-14Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. GREATEST THREAT KAPF TO KFLL AND POINTS
NORTH. GUST WIND POTENTIAL ~40KT POSSIBLE. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WOULD BE BRIEF THOUGH. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION! /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

.A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
.ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
.DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  75  49  73 /  30  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  79  55  75 /  30  60  10   0
MIAMI            74  78  56  76 /  30  60  10   0
NAPLES           66  68  48  73 / 100  70   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KTBW 260242
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
942 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A NICE CLEARING LINE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF IT THIS EVENING...BUT MORE FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST
THAT WILL MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO
REFLECT THIS...BUT HAVE GENERALLY KEPT LIKELY OR GREATER POPS IN
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STAYING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEARING. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REFLECT THE CHANGES
IN POPS...THOUGH THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND CAUSING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST FOR TOMORROW AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH SURF AND RIP
CURRENT RISKS AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINS...THOUGH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY RAIN POCKETS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY STARTING AFTER 06Z...WITH THE DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM
THE SW AROUND TO THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
00Z SOUNDING DATA DEPICTS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDING OVER
THE AREA FED BY A DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AS
MARINE FOG HAS BEEN WELL MIXED WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.  DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S CONTINUE TO BE
1-3 DEGREES ABOVE WATER TEMPERATURES HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY ENTRAIN INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  A SECONDARY AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  BUOY036
REPORTED NORTH WIND AT 23 KNOTS GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS WITH 5.6 FOOT
WAVES AND INCREASING IN HEIGHT OVER THE PAST HOUR.  CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...10/LAMARRE
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KTBW 260242
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
942 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A NICE CLEARING LINE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF IT THIS EVENING...BUT MORE FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST
THAT WILL MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY. SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS A BIT TO
REFLECT THIS...BUT HAVE GENERALLY KEPT LIKELY OR GREATER POPS IN
FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHING
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
STAYING FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE RAIN AND CLOUDS
GRADUALLY CLEARING. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REFLECT THE CHANGES
IN POPS...THOUGH THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH
WINDS INCREASING AND CAUSING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST FOR TOMORROW AND ALLOWING FOR HIGH SURF AND RIP
CURRENT RISKS AT AREA BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH
THE RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. THE RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE RAINS...THOUGH SHORT PERIODS OF IFR
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVY RAIN POCKETS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY STARTING AFTER 06Z...WITH THE DIRECTION SHIFTING FROM
THE SW AROUND TO THE NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
00Z SOUNDING DATA DEPICTS THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS RESIDING OVER
THE AREA FED BY A DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10 PM AS
MARINE FOG HAS BEEN WELL MIXED WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS EVENING.  DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S CONTINUE TO BE
1-3 DEGREES ABOVE WATER TEMPERATURES HOWEVER DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY ENTRAIN INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  A SECONDARY AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  BUOY036
REPORTED NORTH WIND AT 23 KNOTS GUSTING TO 27 KNOTS WITH 5.6 FOOT
WAVES AND INCREASING IN HEIGHT OVER THE PAST HOUR.  CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EST WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...10/LAMARRE
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE/OGLESBY





000
FXUS62 KJAX 260200
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
900 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL LOW CENTER LOOKS TO BE SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY
AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM SAINT SIMONS ISLAND TO GAINESVILLE AND CEDAR
KEY AND AM CONSIDERING DROPPING THE FLOOD WATCH NORTH AND WEST OF
THAT LINE. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFFSHORE SOME WARP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL COME BACK TO THE COAST BUT SHOULD GET A PRETTY SHARP
DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP. KJAX RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE ABOUT AN INCH OR SO ON THE LOW SIDE BASED ON SOME
SPOTTER REPORTS WE HAVE GOTTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO OSCILLATE
BETWEEN LIFR AND MVFR AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR BY THE MORNING HOURS WITH A LINGERING MVFR
STRATUS DECK INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
AMENDED TO ISSUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER AS
CONDITIONS LOOKED TO BE GOING DOWNHILL OFFSHORE. THAT WAS BORNE
OUT BY A 36 KNOT/41 MPH GUST AT THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SHARPLY OFFSHORE AS THE LOW WRAPS UP AND
THE FLOW BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WITH A SHORT PERIOD 6 TO 8 FOOT WIND WAVE WILL MAKE FOR AN
UNCOMFORTABLE RIDE FOR ANYONE OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS:MODERATE RISK LIKELY TO BE DOWNGRADED TO LOW RISK IN
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  48  59  39 /  80 100  70  10
SSI  64  53  59  43 /  90 100  80  10
JAX  68  52  61  39 /  90 100  80   0
SGJ  70  54  60  44 / 100 100  90   0
GNV  69  52  61  39 / 100 100  80   0
OCF  71  54  62  39 / 100 100  90   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-
     ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-
     WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

SANDRIK/NELSON/WALSH






000
FXUS62 KJAX 260200
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
900 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
LOOKING AT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THE
SURFACE/LOW LEVEL LOW CENTER LOOKS TO BE SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY
AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST. THE MAIN RAIN SHIELD IS SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM SAINT SIMONS ISLAND TO GAINESVILLE AND CEDAR
KEY AND AM CONSIDERING DROPPING THE FLOOD WATCH NORTH AND WEST OF
THAT LINE. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP OFFSHORE SOME WARP AROUND MOISTURE
WILL COME BACK TO THE COAST BUT SHOULD GET A PRETTY SHARP
DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP. KJAX RADAR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE ABOUT AN INCH OR SO ON THE LOW SIDE BASED ON SOME
SPOTTER REPORTS WE HAVE GOTTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO OSCILLATE
BETWEEN LIFR AND MVFR AS BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. RAIN SHOULD CLEAR BY THE MORNING HOURS WITH A LINGERING MVFR
STRATUS DECK INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
AMENDED TO ISSUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY A FEW HOURS EARLIER AS
CONDITIONS LOOKED TO BE GOING DOWNHILL OFFSHORE. THAT WAS BORNE
OUT BY A 36 KNOT/41 MPH GUST AT THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER.
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE SHARPLY OFFSHORE AS THE LOW WRAPS UP AND
THE FLOW BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WITH A SHORT PERIOD 6 TO 8 FOOT WIND WAVE WILL MAKE FOR AN
UNCOMFORTABLE RIDE FOR ANYONE OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS:MODERATE RISK LIKELY TO BE DOWNGRADED TO LOW RISK IN
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  48  59  39 /  80 100  70  10
SSI  64  53  59  43 /  90 100  80  10
JAX  68  52  61  39 /  90 100  80   0
SGJ  70  54  60  44 / 100 100  90   0
GNV  69  52  61  39 / 100 100  80   0
OCF  71  54  62  39 / 100 100  90   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-
     ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-
     COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-
     WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

SANDRIK/NELSON/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KMLB 260117
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
817 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...FLOOD WATCH OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY...
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...
...TURNING COLDER AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TRACKS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR
MORE TRAINING HEAVY RAIN CELLS THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH FROM
OSCEOLA BREVARD NORTH STILL LOOKS GOOD. BOTH THE LATEST
GFS 25/18Z AND THE RUC ARE INDICATING A WAVE FORMING ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH. BOTH CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT ENDING UP OFF THE WILMINGTON NC AREA
AROUND SUNRISE WED WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT WIND AND ITS ASSOCIATED GRIDS AND REPLACED
THE SCATTERED/CHANCE OF STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY
LOCALES WITHIN THIS AREA REPORTING 2-5 INCH RAINS WITH NUISANCE
FLOODING. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS ECFL WITH
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR
BREVARD-OSCEOLA NORTHWARD THROUGH WED MORNING. THE AREA UNDER THE
GUN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR AS ECHOES CONTINUE TO TRAIN HERE. THE FOCUS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE FLOOD
WATCH COVERAGE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD
SOUTHWARD WILL RANGE FROM LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT-EARLY WED MORNING.
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ORGANIZING WITH HEAVY CONVECTION UNDERNEATH. KMLB NEXRAD 88D RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH OF
I-4 WITH THESE CELLS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

THE SPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MANY FEATURES
REMAINING IN PLAY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/STRONG STORM POTENTIAL INCLUDE
DEEP MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...SUBTLE IMPULSES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVIDING
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOW ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER
STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THREATS FROM STORMS INCLUDE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL/NUISANCE FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND/OR A SHORT-LIVED WEAK
TORNADO OR TWO. A WEATHER WATCH MAY STILL BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL EVENTUALLY GET A KICK SOUTH AND
EAST AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
AND GOMEX. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL RIDE
UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN OFF
OF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA BY AROUND
SUNRISE WED MORNING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALONG AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND BEHIND IT WITH SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME W/NW
BEHIND IT WITH BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER PASSAGE. TIMING OF FRONT ALONG WITH THICK
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS CHALLENGING.
TEMPERATURES ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 ARE FORECAST TO DROP LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S WITH 60S FURTHER SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOWER
70S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.

WED...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ECFL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND
OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE ATLANTIC EAST COAST
DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANT
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...SO EXPECT DECREASING TREND
FOR BOTH COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THIS TIME.
BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW BRIEFLY WITH WIND SPEEDS
SETTLING DOWN TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY WITH OCNL HIGHER WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE WILL BE THE HIGHEST WE WILL SEE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S AREAWIDE...BUT THIS DAY WILL FEEL BOTH COOLER/DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.

WED NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10 MPH PAST DUSK SO WIND CHILL ISSUES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS DESPITE THE LOWER READINGS.

THU-THU NIGHT...REMAINING NOTICEABLY COOLER DESPITE FULL SUN THU
AS A DEEP NW FLOW PUSHES A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA. TEMPS 5-10F BLO CLIMO. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 70F MARK...RANGING FROM THE M/U60S ALONG AND N OF I-4 TO ARND
70F ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L/M40S OVER
THE INTERIOR AND IN THE U40S/L50S ALNG THE COAST.

FRI-MON...SLOW WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE DRIFTS ACRS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH AND INTO
THE W ATLC. N/NWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO AVG THRU SAT
NIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS M60S/L70S...MIN TEMPS M/U40S INTERIOR AND
U40/M50S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO ENE ON SAT THEN TO
THE E ON SUN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC. THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL PUSH OCEAN MODIFIED AIR BACK ONSHORE...ALLOWING MAX
TEMPS TO RECOVER TO CLIMO BY SUN AFTN WITH MAXES L/M70S...MINS
M/U50S INTERIOR AND U50/L60S ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...REVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THEN IFR IS AREAS OF RAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS AFTER 26/12Z.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALONG I-4 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT WITH FRONT
CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. CURRENT...PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MANY SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUING TONIGHT. LCL IFR VSBYS IN +SHRA/TS.
GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON
WED BEHIND FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS
IMMEDIATELY AS FRONT PASSES.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA BUOYS 009/010 WERE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 23
KNOTS/17 KNOTS 6/7 FOOT SEAS RESPECTIVELY. THE TWO NEARSHORE SCRIPPS
BUOYS WERE RECORDING 5 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 6NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WILL START OFF WITH STRONGLY WORDED CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OFFSHORE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS/GUSTY AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. AS FRONT ENTERS THE WATERS LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY BECOME 25-30 KTS AND
GUSTY OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BY DAYBREAK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL MARINE LEGS NEAR
DAYBREAK WED MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
BOATING.

WIDESPREAD (OFFSHORE MOVING) SHOWERS/SCT STRONG STORMS FROM CAPE
NORTHWARD WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY STRONGER CELLS ARE CAPABLE OF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND/OR WATERSPOUT. A WEATHER WATCH MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

WED...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ARE
LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALL LEGS. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/5-7 FT
NEAR SHORE. SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THU-SAT...(PREV DISC) IMPROVING CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
THE W ATLC. SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER FROM
NW TO E AND DIMINISH... MODERATE TO FRESH NW BREEZE ON THU...BCMG
A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE BREEZE ON FRI...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE
E/NE BREEZE ON SAT. SEAS WILL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU FRI AS
WINDS SWING THRU NE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE THE NRLY
WIND/SRLY CURRENT COMPONENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES. SEAS 4-6FT
NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE ON THU...SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE ON FRI...THRU SUNSET THU...THEN 3-4FT NEARSHORE
AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE ON SAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  65  44  66 / 100  80   0   0
MCO  58  65  43  67 /  90  80   0   0
MLB  61  65  46  70 /  80  80   0   0
VRB  64  69  46  71 /  70  80  10   0
LEE  57  65  43  66 / 100  80   0   0
SFB  58  66  44  67 /  90  80   0   0
ORL  58  65  44  68 /  90  80   0   0
FPR  65  68  47  72 /  70  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
FORECASTS...WIMMER


86/99





000
FXUS62 KMLB 260117
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
817 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...FLOOD WATCH OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY...
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...
...TURNING COLDER AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TRACKS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR
MORE TRAINING HEAVY RAIN CELLS THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH FROM
OSCEOLA BREVARD NORTH STILL LOOKS GOOD. BOTH THE LATEST
GFS 25/18Z AND THE RUC ARE INDICATING A WAVE FORMING ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH. BOTH CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT ENDING UP OFF THE WILMINGTON NC AREA
AROUND SUNRISE WED WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT WIND AND ITS ASSOCIATED GRIDS AND REPLACED
THE SCATTERED/CHANCE OF STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY
LOCALES WITHIN THIS AREA REPORTING 2-5 INCH RAINS WITH NUISANCE
FLOODING. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS ECFL WITH
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR
BREVARD-OSCEOLA NORTHWARD THROUGH WED MORNING. THE AREA UNDER THE
GUN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR AS ECHOES CONTINUE TO TRAIN HERE. THE FOCUS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE FLOOD
WATCH COVERAGE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD
SOUTHWARD WILL RANGE FROM LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT-EARLY WED MORNING.
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ORGANIZING WITH HEAVY CONVECTION UNDERNEATH. KMLB NEXRAD 88D RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH OF
I-4 WITH THESE CELLS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

THE SPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MANY FEATURES
REMAINING IN PLAY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/STRONG STORM POTENTIAL INCLUDE
DEEP MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...SUBTLE IMPULSES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVIDING
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOW ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER
STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THREATS FROM STORMS INCLUDE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL/NUISANCE FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND/OR A SHORT-LIVED WEAK
TORNADO OR TWO. A WEATHER WATCH MAY STILL BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL EVENTUALLY GET A KICK SOUTH AND
EAST AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
AND GOMEX. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL RIDE
UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN OFF
OF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA BY AROUND
SUNRISE WED MORNING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALONG AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND BEHIND IT WITH SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME W/NW
BEHIND IT WITH BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER PASSAGE. TIMING OF FRONT ALONG WITH THICK
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS CHALLENGING.
TEMPERATURES ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 ARE FORECAST TO DROP LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S WITH 60S FURTHER SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOWER
70S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.

WED...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ECFL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND
OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE ATLANTIC EAST COAST
DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANT
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...SO EXPECT DECREASING TREND
FOR BOTH COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THIS TIME.
BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW BRIEFLY WITH WIND SPEEDS
SETTLING DOWN TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY WITH OCNL HIGHER WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE WILL BE THE HIGHEST WE WILL SEE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S AREAWIDE...BUT THIS DAY WILL FEEL BOTH COOLER/DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.

WED NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10 MPH PAST DUSK SO WIND CHILL ISSUES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS DESPITE THE LOWER READINGS.

THU-THU NIGHT...REMAINING NOTICEABLY COOLER DESPITE FULL SUN THU
AS A DEEP NW FLOW PUSHES A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA. TEMPS 5-10F BLO CLIMO. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 70F MARK...RANGING FROM THE M/U60S ALONG AND N OF I-4 TO ARND
70F ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L/M40S OVER
THE INTERIOR AND IN THE U40S/L50S ALNG THE COAST.

FRI-MON...SLOW WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE DRIFTS ACRS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH AND INTO
THE W ATLC. N/NWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO AVG THRU SAT
NIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS M60S/L70S...MIN TEMPS M/U40S INTERIOR AND
U40/M50S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO ENE ON SAT THEN TO
THE E ON SUN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC. THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL PUSH OCEAN MODIFIED AIR BACK ONSHORE...ALLOWING MAX
TEMPS TO RECOVER TO CLIMO BY SUN AFTN WITH MAXES L/M70S...MINS
M/U50S INTERIOR AND U50/L60S ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...REVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THEN IFR IS AREAS OF RAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS AFTER 26/12Z.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALONG I-4 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT WITH FRONT
CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. CURRENT...PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MANY SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUING TONIGHT. LCL IFR VSBYS IN +SHRA/TS.
GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON
WED BEHIND FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS
IMMEDIATELY AS FRONT PASSES.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA BUOYS 009/010 WERE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 23
KNOTS/17 KNOTS 6/7 FOOT SEAS RESPECTIVELY. THE TWO NEARSHORE SCRIPPS
BUOYS WERE RECORDING 5 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 6NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WILL START OFF WITH STRONGLY WORDED CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OFFSHORE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS/GUSTY AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. AS FRONT ENTERS THE WATERS LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY BECOME 25-30 KTS AND
GUSTY OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BY DAYBREAK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL MARINE LEGS NEAR
DAYBREAK WED MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
BOATING.

WIDESPREAD (OFFSHORE MOVING) SHOWERS/SCT STRONG STORMS FROM CAPE
NORTHWARD WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY STRONGER CELLS ARE CAPABLE OF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND/OR WATERSPOUT. A WEATHER WATCH MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

WED...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ARE
LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALL LEGS. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/5-7 FT
NEAR SHORE. SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THU-SAT...(PREV DISC) IMPROVING CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
THE W ATLC. SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER FROM
NW TO E AND DIMINISH... MODERATE TO FRESH NW BREEZE ON THU...BCMG
A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE BREEZE ON FRI...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE
E/NE BREEZE ON SAT. SEAS WILL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU FRI AS
WINDS SWING THRU NE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE THE NRLY
WIND/SRLY CURRENT COMPONENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES. SEAS 4-6FT
NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE ON THU...SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE ON FRI...THRU SUNSET THU...THEN 3-4FT NEARSHORE
AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE ON SAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  65  44  66 / 100  80   0   0
MCO  58  65  43  67 /  90  80   0   0
MLB  61  65  46  70 /  80  80   0   0
VRB  64  69  46  71 /  70  80  10   0
LEE  57  65  43  66 / 100  80   0   0
SFB  58  66  44  67 /  90  80   0   0
ORL  58  65  44  68 /  90  80   0   0
FPR  65  68  47  72 /  70  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
FORECASTS...WIMMER


86/99





000
FXUS62 KMLB 260117
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
817 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...FLOOD WATCH OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY...
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...
...TURNING COLDER AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TRACKS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR
MORE TRAINING HEAVY RAIN CELLS THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH FROM
OSCEOLA BREVARD NORTH STILL LOOKS GOOD. BOTH THE LATEST
GFS 25/18Z AND THE RUC ARE INDICATING A WAVE FORMING ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH. BOTH CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT ENDING UP OFF THE WILMINGTON NC AREA
AROUND SUNRISE WED WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT WIND AND ITS ASSOCIATED GRIDS AND REPLACED
THE SCATTERED/CHANCE OF STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY
LOCALES WITHIN THIS AREA REPORTING 2-5 INCH RAINS WITH NUISANCE
FLOODING. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS ECFL WITH
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR
BREVARD-OSCEOLA NORTHWARD THROUGH WED MORNING. THE AREA UNDER THE
GUN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR AS ECHOES CONTINUE TO TRAIN HERE. THE FOCUS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE FLOOD
WATCH COVERAGE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD
SOUTHWARD WILL RANGE FROM LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT-EARLY WED MORNING.
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ORGANIZING WITH HEAVY CONVECTION UNDERNEATH. KMLB NEXRAD 88D RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH OF
I-4 WITH THESE CELLS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

THE SPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MANY FEATURES
REMAINING IN PLAY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/STRONG STORM POTENTIAL INCLUDE
DEEP MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...SUBTLE IMPULSES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVIDING
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOW ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER
STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THREATS FROM STORMS INCLUDE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL/NUISANCE FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND/OR A SHORT-LIVED WEAK
TORNADO OR TWO. A WEATHER WATCH MAY STILL BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL EVENTUALLY GET A KICK SOUTH AND
EAST AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
AND GOMEX. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL RIDE
UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN OFF
OF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA BY AROUND
SUNRISE WED MORNING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALONG AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND BEHIND IT WITH SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME W/NW
BEHIND IT WITH BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER PASSAGE. TIMING OF FRONT ALONG WITH THICK
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS CHALLENGING.
TEMPERATURES ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 ARE FORECAST TO DROP LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S WITH 60S FURTHER SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOWER
70S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.

WED...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ECFL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND
OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE ATLANTIC EAST COAST
DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANT
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...SO EXPECT DECREASING TREND
FOR BOTH COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THIS TIME.
BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW BRIEFLY WITH WIND SPEEDS
SETTLING DOWN TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY WITH OCNL HIGHER WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE WILL BE THE HIGHEST WE WILL SEE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S AREAWIDE...BUT THIS DAY WILL FEEL BOTH COOLER/DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.

WED NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10 MPH PAST DUSK SO WIND CHILL ISSUES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS DESPITE THE LOWER READINGS.

THU-THU NIGHT...REMAINING NOTICEABLY COOLER DESPITE FULL SUN THU
AS A DEEP NW FLOW PUSHES A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA. TEMPS 5-10F BLO CLIMO. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 70F MARK...RANGING FROM THE M/U60S ALONG AND N OF I-4 TO ARND
70F ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L/M40S OVER
THE INTERIOR AND IN THE U40S/L50S ALNG THE COAST.

FRI-MON...SLOW WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE DRIFTS ACRS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH AND INTO
THE W ATLC. N/NWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO AVG THRU SAT
NIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS M60S/L70S...MIN TEMPS M/U40S INTERIOR AND
U40/M50S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO ENE ON SAT THEN TO
THE E ON SUN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC. THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL PUSH OCEAN MODIFIED AIR BACK ONSHORE...ALLOWING MAX
TEMPS TO RECOVER TO CLIMO BY SUN AFTN WITH MAXES L/M70S...MINS
M/U50S INTERIOR AND U50/L60S ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...REVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THEN IFR IS AREAS OF RAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS AFTER 26/12Z.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALONG I-4 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT WITH FRONT
CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. CURRENT...PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MANY SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUING TONIGHT. LCL IFR VSBYS IN +SHRA/TS.
GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON
WED BEHIND FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS
IMMEDIATELY AS FRONT PASSES.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA BUOYS 009/010 WERE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 23
KNOTS/17 KNOTS 6/7 FOOT SEAS RESPECTIVELY. THE TWO NEARSHORE SCRIPPS
BUOYS WERE RECORDING 5 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 6NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WILL START OFF WITH STRONGLY WORDED CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OFFSHORE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS/GUSTY AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. AS FRONT ENTERS THE WATERS LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY BECOME 25-30 KTS AND
GUSTY OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BY DAYBREAK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL MARINE LEGS NEAR
DAYBREAK WED MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
BOATING.

WIDESPREAD (OFFSHORE MOVING) SHOWERS/SCT STRONG STORMS FROM CAPE
NORTHWARD WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY STRONGER CELLS ARE CAPABLE OF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND/OR WATERSPOUT. A WEATHER WATCH MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

WED...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ARE
LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALL LEGS. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/5-7 FT
NEAR SHORE. SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THU-SAT...(PREV DISC) IMPROVING CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
THE W ATLC. SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER FROM
NW TO E AND DIMINISH... MODERATE TO FRESH NW BREEZE ON THU...BCMG
A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE BREEZE ON FRI...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE
E/NE BREEZE ON SAT. SEAS WILL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU FRI AS
WINDS SWING THRU NE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE THE NRLY
WIND/SRLY CURRENT COMPONENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES. SEAS 4-6FT
NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE ON THU...SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE ON FRI...THRU SUNSET THU...THEN 3-4FT NEARSHORE
AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE ON SAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  65  44  66 / 100  80   0   0
MCO  58  65  43  67 /  90  80   0   0
MLB  61  65  46  70 /  80  80   0   0
VRB  64  69  46  71 /  70  80  10   0
LEE  57  65  43  66 / 100  80   0   0
SFB  58  66  44  67 /  90  80   0   0
ORL  58  65  44  68 /  90  80   0   0
FPR  65  68  47  72 /  70  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
FORECASTS...WIMMER


86/99





000
FXUS62 KMLB 260117
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
817 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...FLOOD WATCH OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY...
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...
...TURNING COLDER AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TRACKS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE PREVAILING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PULL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR
MORE TRAINING HEAVY RAIN CELLS THEREFORE THE FLOOD WATCH FROM
OSCEOLA BREVARD NORTH STILL LOOKS GOOD. BOTH THE LATEST
GFS 25/18Z AND THE RUC ARE INDICATING A WAVE FORMING ALONG AN OLD
BOUNDARY AS IT LIFTS NORTH. BOTH CLOSE OFF THE LOW AND HAVE IT MOVING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT ENDING UP OFF THE WILMINGTON NC AREA
AROUND SUNRISE WED WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT WIND AND ITS ASSOCIATED GRIDS AND REPLACED
THE SCATTERED/CHANCE OF STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY
LOCALES WITHIN THIS AREA REPORTING 2-5 INCH RAINS WITH NUISANCE
FLOODING. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS ECFL WITH
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR
BREVARD-OSCEOLA NORTHWARD THROUGH WED MORNING. THE AREA UNDER THE
GUN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR AS ECHOES CONTINUE TO TRAIN HERE. THE FOCUS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE FLOOD
WATCH COVERAGE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD
SOUTHWARD WILL RANGE FROM LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT-EARLY WED MORNING.
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ORGANIZING WITH HEAVY CONVECTION UNDERNEATH. KMLB NEXRAD 88D RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH OF
I-4 WITH THESE CELLS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

THE SPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MANY FEATURES
REMAINING IN PLAY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/STRONG STORM POTENTIAL INCLUDE
DEEP MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...SUBTLE IMPULSES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVIDING
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOW ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER
STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THREATS FROM STORMS INCLUDE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL/NUISANCE FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND/OR A SHORT-LIVED WEAK
TORNADO OR TWO. A WEATHER WATCH MAY STILL BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL EVENTUALLY GET A KICK SOUTH AND
EAST AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
AND GOMEX. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL RIDE
UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN OFF
OF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA BY AROUND
SUNRISE WED MORNING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALONG AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND BEHIND IT WITH SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME W/NW
BEHIND IT WITH BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER PASSAGE. TIMING OF FRONT ALONG WITH THICK
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS CHALLENGING.
TEMPERATURES ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 ARE FORECAST TO DROP LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S WITH 60S FURTHER SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOWER
70S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.

WED...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ECFL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND
OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE ATLANTIC EAST COAST
DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANT
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...SO EXPECT DECREASING TREND
FOR BOTH COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THIS TIME.
BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW BRIEFLY WITH WIND SPEEDS
SETTLING DOWN TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY WITH OCNL HIGHER WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE WILL BE THE HIGHEST WE WILL SEE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S AREAWIDE...BUT THIS DAY WILL FEEL BOTH COOLER/DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.

WED NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10 MPH PAST DUSK SO WIND CHILL ISSUES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS DESPITE THE LOWER READINGS.

THU-THU NIGHT...REMAINING NOTICEABLY COOLER DESPITE FULL SUN THU
AS A DEEP NW FLOW PUSHES A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA. TEMPS 5-10F BLO CLIMO. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 70F MARK...RANGING FROM THE M/U60S ALONG AND N OF I-4 TO ARND
70F ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L/M40S OVER
THE INTERIOR AND IN THE U40S/L50S ALNG THE COAST.

FRI-MON...SLOW WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE DRIFTS ACRS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH AND INTO
THE W ATLC. N/NWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO AVG THRU SAT
NIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS M60S/L70S...MIN TEMPS M/U40S INTERIOR AND
U40/M50S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO ENE ON SAT THEN TO
THE E ON SUN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC. THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL PUSH OCEAN MODIFIED AIR BACK ONSHORE...ALLOWING MAX
TEMPS TO RECOVER TO CLIMO BY SUN AFTN WITH MAXES L/M70S...MINS
M/U50S INTERIOR AND U50/L60S ALONG THE COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...REVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
THEN IFR IS AREAS OF RAIN THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
STORMS AFTER 26/12Z.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALONG I-4 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT WITH FRONT
CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED
MORNING. CURRENT...PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MANY SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUING TONIGHT. LCL IFR VSBYS IN +SHRA/TS.
GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON
WED BEHIND FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS
IMMEDIATELY AS FRONT PASSES.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA BUOYS 009/010 WERE SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS 23
KNOTS/17 KNOTS 6/7 FOOT SEAS RESPECTIVELY. THE TWO NEARSHORE SCRIPPS
BUOYS WERE RECORDING 5 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 6NM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH 4 PM WEDNESDAY.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WILL START OFF WITH STRONGLY WORDED CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS OFFSHORE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS/GUSTY AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. AS FRONT ENTERS THE WATERS LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY BECOME 25-30 KTS AND
GUSTY OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BY DAYBREAK.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL MARINE LEGS NEAR
DAYBREAK WED MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT
BOATING.

WIDESPREAD (OFFSHORE MOVING) SHOWERS/SCT STRONG STORMS FROM CAPE
NORTHWARD WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY STRONGER CELLS ARE CAPABLE OF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND/OR WATERSPOUT. A WEATHER WATCH MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

WED...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ARE
LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALL LEGS. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/5-7 FT
NEAR SHORE. SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THU-SAT...(PREV DISC) IMPROVING CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
THE W ATLC. SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER FROM
NW TO E AND DIMINISH... MODERATE TO FRESH NW BREEZE ON THU...BCMG
A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE BREEZE ON FRI...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE
E/NE BREEZE ON SAT. SEAS WILL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU FRI AS
WINDS SWING THRU NE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE THE NRLY
WIND/SRLY CURRENT COMPONENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES. SEAS 4-6FT
NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE ON THU...SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE ON FRI...THRU SUNSET THU...THEN 3-4FT NEARSHORE
AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE ON SAT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  65  44  66 / 100  80   0   0
MCO  58  65  43  67 /  90  80   0   0
MLB  61  65  46  70 /  80  80   0   0
VRB  64  69  46  71 /  70  80  10   0
LEE  57  65  43  66 / 100  80   0   0
SFB  58  66  44  67 /  90  80   0   0
ORL  58  65  44  68 /  90  80   0   0
FPR  65  68  47  72 /  70  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...VOLKMER
FORECASTS...WIMMER


86/99





000
FXUS62 KMFL 252356
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
656 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT LESS CERTAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE
PAST TWO NIGHTS SHOWING IFR TO ONLY NOT OCCUR AT MOST LOCALES.
FOR THIS REASON, WENT WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH A SCT005 AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF WITH CONVECTION ALL THE
WAY TO THE YUCATAN. AS THIS SLIDES EAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FL. HOWEVER, THE
STORMS IN THE GULF ARE ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND
POLYGON TIME TRACKING SUGGESTS A LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR KAPF AND NOT UNTIL DAWN FOR THE EAST COAST. LATEST HRRR RUN
SHOWS NO QPF EAST COAST UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH OUR TIMING ANALYSIS, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS. IFR OR LIFR
VIS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER TSRA WHICH MOVES THROUGH WITH
IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHEST FROM 05-09Z AT KAPF AND 09-14Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. GREATEST THREAT KAPF TO KFLL AND POINTS
NORTH. GUST WIND POTENTIAL ~40KT POSSIBLE. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WOULD BE BRIEF THOUGH. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION! /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
..ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
..DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  74  49  73 /  50  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  76  55  75 /  40  60  10   0
MIAMI            74  76  56  76 /  40  50  10   0
NAPLES           66  69  48  73 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252356
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
656 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT LESS CERTAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE
PAST TWO NIGHTS SHOWING IFR TO ONLY NOT OCCUR AT MOST LOCALES.
FOR THIS REASON, WENT WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH A SCT005 AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF WITH CONVECTION ALL THE
WAY TO THE YUCATAN. AS THIS SLIDES EAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FL. HOWEVER, THE
STORMS IN THE GULF ARE ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND
POLYGON TIME TRACKING SUGGESTS A LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR KAPF AND NOT UNTIL DAWN FOR THE EAST COAST. LATEST HRRR RUN
SHOWS NO QPF EAST COAST UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH OUR TIMING ANALYSIS, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS. IFR OR LIFR
VIS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER TSRA WHICH MOVES THROUGH WITH
IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHEST FROM 05-09Z AT KAPF AND 09-14Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. GREATEST THREAT KAPF TO KFLL AND POINTS
NORTH. GUST WIND POTENTIAL ~40KT POSSIBLE. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WOULD BE BRIEF THOUGH. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION! /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
..ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
..DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  74  49  73 /  50  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  76  55  75 /  40  60  10   0
MIAMI            74  76  56  76 /  40  50  10   0
NAPLES           66  69  48  73 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252356
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
656 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT LESS CERTAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE
PAST TWO NIGHTS SHOWING IFR TO ONLY NOT OCCUR AT MOST LOCALES.
FOR THIS REASON, WENT WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH A SCT005 AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF WITH CONVECTION ALL THE
WAY TO THE YUCATAN. AS THIS SLIDES EAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FL. HOWEVER, THE
STORMS IN THE GULF ARE ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND
POLYGON TIME TRACKING SUGGESTS A LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR KAPF AND NOT UNTIL DAWN FOR THE EAST COAST. LATEST HRRR RUN
SHOWS NO QPF EAST COAST UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH OUR TIMING ANALYSIS, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS. IFR OR LIFR
VIS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER TSRA WHICH MOVES THROUGH WITH
IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHEST FROM 05-09Z AT KAPF AND 09-14Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. GREATEST THREAT KAPF TO KFLL AND POINTS
NORTH. GUST WIND POTENTIAL ~40KT POSSIBLE. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WOULD BE BRIEF THOUGH. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION! /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
..ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
..DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  74  49  73 /  50  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  76  55  75 /  40  60  10   0
MIAMI            74  76  56  76 /  40  50  10   0
NAPLES           66  69  48  73 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252356
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
656 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT LESS CERTAIN. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE
PAST TWO NIGHTS SHOWING IFR TO ONLY NOT OCCUR AT MOST LOCALES.
FOR THIS REASON, WENT WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH A SCT005 AND
WILL CLOSELY MONITOR TRENDS.

IMPRESSIVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF WITH CONVECTION ALL THE
WAY TO THE YUCATAN. AS THIS SLIDES EAST, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BROKEN LINE OF TSRA TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FL. HOWEVER, THE
STORMS IN THE GULF ARE ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD AND
POLYGON TIME TRACKING SUGGESTS A LATE NIGHT ARRIVAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR KAPF AND NOT UNTIL DAWN FOR THE EAST COAST. LATEST HRRR RUN
SHOWS NO QPF EAST COAST UNTIL AFTER 10Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
WITH OUR TIMING ANALYSIS, SO HAVE FOLLOWED THIS. IFR OR LIFR
VIS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER TSRA WHICH MOVES THROUGH WITH
IMPACT POTENTIAL HIGHEST FROM 05-09Z AT KAPF AND 09-14Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. GREATEST THREAT KAPF TO KFLL AND POINTS
NORTH. GUST WIND POTENTIAL ~40KT POSSIBLE. ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
WOULD BE BRIEF THOUGH. THX CWSU MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION! /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
..ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
..DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  74  49  73 /  50  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  76  55  75 /  40  60  10   0
MIAMI            74  76  56  76 /  40  50  10   0
NAPLES           66  69  48  73 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252056
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  74  49  73 /  50  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  76  55  75 /  40  60  10   0
MIAMI            74  76  56  76 /  40  50  10   0
NAPLES           66  69  48  73 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 252056
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  74  49  73 /  50  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  76  55  75 /  40  60  10   0
MIAMI            74  76  56  76 /  40  50  10   0
NAPLES           66  69  48  73 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 252056
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  74  49  73 /  50  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  76  55  75 /  40  60  10   0
MIAMI            74  76  56  76 /  40  50  10   0
NAPLES           66  69  48  73 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 252056
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
356 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/WEST COAST TONIGHT...
...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...
...DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
EXTENDED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT BRINGING IN THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL BE ON AN INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM WEST TO EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KNOTS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG
STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO BECOME A COLD FRONT TONIGHT...AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA
KEYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BRING IN DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING AND FRIDAY.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER TO MID 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO SLOWLY
SWING TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AND BECOME BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA DRY AND ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST 7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS COULD EVEN GET UP TO 9 TO 11 FEET ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE...IT LOOKS LIKE AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR ALL OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR THE WINDS AND SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS...FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST
BEACHES THIS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND AND FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY SHOULD FALL BELOW THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE ON THANKSGIVING DAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE ERC
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ON THANKSGIVING DAY. THEREFORE...NO FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  74  49  73 /  50  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  76  55  75 /  40  60  10   0
MIAMI            74  76  56  76 /  40  50  10   0
NAPLES           66  69  48  73 /  70  70   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KKEY 252019
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
318 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE (1011 MB) IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS ALIGNED
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE...A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXTENDING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AVERAGE NEAR 15 KNOTS EXCEPT
NEAR 10 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK SWIFTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEAR
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL ASCENT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION...EXPECT A BROKEN
SWATH OF SHOWERS TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME MODERATION THEREAFTER.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW A STABLE LAYER NEAR 850 MB
AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ONLY ISOLATED DIME POPS WILL BE
KEPT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR ENTIRE MARINE
DISTRICT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS WEEK...WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/26TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A MVFR ENCOUNTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AFFECTS OUR AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
24 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  75  62  70 / 30 50 00 00
MARATHON  74  76  60  69 / 30 50 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...APA



VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST









































000
FXUS62 KKEY 252019
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
318 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE (1011 MB) IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS ALIGNED
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE...A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXTENDING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AVERAGE NEAR 15 KNOTS EXCEPT
NEAR 10 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK SWIFTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEAR
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL ASCENT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION...EXPECT A BROKEN
SWATH OF SHOWERS TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME MODERATION THEREAFTER.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW A STABLE LAYER NEAR 850 MB
AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ONLY ISOLATED DIME POPS WILL BE
KEPT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR ENTIRE MARINE
DISTRICT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS WEEK...WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/26TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A MVFR ENCOUNTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AFFECTS OUR AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
24 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  75  62  70 / 30 50 00 00
MARATHON  74  76  60  69 / 30 50 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...APA



VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST









































000
FXUS62 KKEY 252019
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
318 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE (1011 MB) IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS ALIGNED
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE...A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXTENDING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AVERAGE NEAR 15 KNOTS EXCEPT
NEAR 10 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK SWIFTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEAR
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL ASCENT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION...EXPECT A BROKEN
SWATH OF SHOWERS TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME MODERATION THEREAFTER.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW A STABLE LAYER NEAR 850 MB
AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ONLY ISOLATED DIME POPS WILL BE
KEPT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR ENTIRE MARINE
DISTRICT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS WEEK...WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/26TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A MVFR ENCOUNTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AFFECTS OUR AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
24 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  75  62  70 / 30 50 00 00
MARATHON  74  76  60  69 / 30 50 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...APA



VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST









































000
FXUS62 KKEY 252019
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
318 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR REGION. SURFACE WISE...AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE (1011 MB) IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IS ALIGNED
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MEANWHILE...A TWO PRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXTENDING INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ARCHIPELAGO OF CUBA. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AVERAGE NEAR 15 KNOTS EXCEPT
NEAR 10 KNOTS AT PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT QUICKLY TO
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE IN THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL INTENSIFY AND TRACK SWIFTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEAR
OUR ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL ASCENT REMAINING WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION...EXPECT A BROKEN
SWATH OF SHOWERS TO PUSH THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAY
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
HOLD IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF THE FRONT. WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME MODERATION THEREAFTER.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND GULF COAST REGION...RESULTING IN BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW A STABLE LAYER NEAR 850 MB
AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...ONLY ISOLATED DIME POPS WILL BE
KEPT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE HOISTED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR ENTIRE MARINE
DISTRICT FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING EARLY IN THE MORNING. FRESH TO
STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS WEEK...WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/26TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL A MVFR ENCOUNTER
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AFFECTS OUR AREA BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL TURN SOUTHWEST WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
24 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  75  62  70 / 30 50 00 00
MARATHON  74  76  60  69 / 30 50 00 00

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/AVIATION...APA



VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST









































000
FXUS62 KTBW 252004
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
304 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL INDUCE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THIS LOW THEN TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA TONIGHT DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG AND
JUST OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS LOW A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH DEEP
LAYERED EFFECTIVE SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS...SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE REGION. GIVEN THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL MAINTAIN A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT CHARLOTTE AND
LEE THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS FIRE OFF ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE RAIN WILL END IN MOST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COOL AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
LIKELY ONLY TO RISE SOME 5 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE EARLY
MORNING MIN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID
60S NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH WITH THE WIND
MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS FRONT IS
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH CENTER CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON
THU. THIS WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF PLEASANT COOL AND DRY
WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE
MORE IN SCEC RANGE THU AND FRI ALTHOUGH MAY APPROACH SCA WITH
SECONDARY SURGE BRIEFLY. TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING FRI
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS MID 30S IN THE NATURE COAST
AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF ATTM. HIGH CENTER WILL ELONGATE FM THE
FL/GA BORDER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MORE EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE BEGINNING OF THE MODERATION TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN THOUGH WHICH
MEANS CONTINUE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AND RAIN CHANCE IS AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE VICINITY OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AFTER 11Z WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GULF WATERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GULF. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET OFFSHORE. THIS WILL TRIGGER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH
WINDS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE
OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS...WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS
THE TAMPA BAY WATERS UNTIL 10 PM EST TONIGHT. THE INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP TO CREATE HIGH SURF AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SO WILL
HOIST A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FROM PINELLAS
HILLSBOROUGH SOUTH FROM 13-21Z ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY ON A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THOUGH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW WHICH WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. IN ADDITION THE RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP ERC VALUES LOW
SO NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  58  64  48  68 /  90  70   0   0
FMY  64  68  48  73 /  80  60   0   0
GIF  57  65  47  68 /  90  90   0   0
SRQ  61  66  47  70 /  90  70   0   0
BKV  55  63  36  68 /  90  60   0   0
SPG  60  65  54  68 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...88/GITTINGER







000
FXUS62 KTBW 252004
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
304 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL INDUCE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THIS LOW THEN TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
PENINSULA TONIGHT DEEPENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG AND
JUST OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS LOW A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH DEEP
LAYERED EFFECTIVE SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS...SOME STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE
DEVELOPING LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE REGION. GIVEN THIS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
WILL MAINTAIN A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT CHARLOTTE AND
LEE THROUGH NOON ON WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS FIRE OFF ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOME
STRONG STORMS MOVING IN FROM THE GULF WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TONIGHT THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE.

ON WEDNESDAY THE RAIN WILL END IN MOST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS
A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ADVECTS INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
COOL AIR ADVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY WILL SUPPORT A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
LIKELY ONLY TO RISE SOME 5 TO 6 DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE EARLY
MORNING MIN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOWER TO MID
60S NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH WITH THE WIND
MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.


.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF TONIGHTS FRONT IS
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH CENTER CROSSING THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON
THU. THIS WILL PROMOTE SEVERAL DAYS OF PLEASANT COOL AND DRY
WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO KEEP ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE
MORE IN SCEC RANGE THU AND FRI ALTHOUGH MAY APPROACH SCA WITH
SECONDARY SURGE BRIEFLY. TEMPS MAY APPROACH FREEZING FRI
MORNING...BUT GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS MID 30S IN THE NATURE COAST
AND 40S ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF ATTM. HIGH CENTER WILL ELONGATE FM THE
FL/GA BORDER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH MORE EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
THE BEGINNING OF THE MODERATION TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO MOISTEN THOUGH WHICH
MEANS CONTINUE PLEASANT CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. NEXT
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AND RAIN CHANCE IS AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS BEYOND
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD PREVAILING MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH TAF FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
12 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND HIGHER GUSTS IN
THE VICINITY OF TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP 30 KNOTS
POSSIBLE AFTER 11Z WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
GULF WATERS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND CONTINUE TONIGHT AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL GULF. LOCALLY
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE LOW MOVES IN TONIGHT WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT...WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND
SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET OFFSHORE. THIS WILL TRIGGER SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WATERS
STARTING LATE TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH
WINDS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH DEW POINT AIR CONTINUING TO MOVE
OVER THE COOLER GULF WATERS...WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS
THE TAMPA BAY WATERS UNTIL 10 PM EST TONIGHT. THE INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL HELP TO CREATE HIGH SURF AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING SO WILL
HOIST A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FROM PINELLAS
HILLSBOROUGH SOUTH FROM 13-21Z ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY ON A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT. DESPITE THE DRIER AIR THOUGH TEMPERATURE DEW POINT SPREADS
SHOULD REMAIN LOW WHICH WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. IN ADDITION THE RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP ERC VALUES LOW
SO NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  58  64  48  68 /  90  70   0   0
FMY  64  68  48  73 /  80  60   0   0
GIF  57  65  47  68 /  90  90   0   0
SRQ  61  66  47  70 /  90  70   0   0
BKV  55  63  36  68 /  90  60   0   0
SPG  60  65  54  68 /  90  60   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE
     ISLAND SOUND-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...18/FLEMING
DECISION SUPPORT...88/GITTINGER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 251955
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...FLOOD WATCH OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY...
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL INTO TONIGHT...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD STARTING
LATE TONIGHT...
...TURNING COLDER AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY
LOCALES WITHIN THIS AREA REPORTING 2-5 INCH RAINS WITH NUISANCE
FLOODING. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS ECFL WITH
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR
BREVARD-OSCEOLA NORTHWARD THROUGH WED MORNING. THE AREA UNDER THE
GUN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR AS ECHOES CONTINUE TO TRAIN HERE. THE FOCUS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE FLOOD
WATCH COVERAGE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD
SOUTHWARD WILL RANGE FROM LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT-EARLY WED MORNING.
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ORGANIZING WITH HEAVY CONVECTION UNDERNEATH. KMLB NEXRAD 88D RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH OF
I-4 WITH THESE CELLS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

THE SPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MANY FEATURES
REMAINING IN PLAY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/STRONG STORM POTENTIAL INCLUDE
DEEP MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...SUBTLE IMPULSES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVIDING
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOW ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER
STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THREATS FROM STORMS INCLUDE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL/NUISANCE FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND/OR A SHORT-LIVED WEAK
TORNADO OR TWO. A WEATHER WATCH MAY STILL BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL EVENTUALLY GET A KICK SOUTH AND
EAST AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
AND GOMEX. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL RIDE
UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN OFF
OF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA BY AROUND
SUNRISE WED MORNING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALONG AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND BEHIND IT WITH SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME W/NW
BEHIND IT WITH BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER PASSAGE. TIMING OF FRONT ALONG WITH THICK
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS CHALLENGING.
TEMPERATURES ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 ARE FORECAST TO DROP LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S WITH 60S FURTHER SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOWER
70S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.

WED...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ECFL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND
OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE ATLANTIC EAST COAST
DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANT
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...SO EXPECT DECREASING TREND
FOR BOTH COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THIS TIME.
BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW BRIEFLY WITH WIND SPEEDS
SETTLING DOWN TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY WITH OCNL HIGHER WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE WILL BE THE HIGHEST WE WILL SEE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S AREAWIDE...BUT THIS DAY WILL FEEL BOTH COOLER/DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.

WED NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10 MPH PAST DUSK SO WIND CHILL ISSUES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS DESPITE THE LOWER READINGS.

THU-THU NIGHT...REMAINING NOTICEABLY COOLER DESPITE FULL SUN THU
AS A DEEP NW FLOW PUSHES A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA. TEMPS 5-10F BLO CLIMO. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 70F MARK...RANGING FROM THE M/U60S ALONG AND N OF I-4 TO ARND
70F ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L/M40S OVER
THE INTERIOR AND IN THE U40S/L50S ALNG THE COAST.

FRI-MON...SLOW WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE DRIFTS ACRS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH AND INTO
THE W ATLC. N/NWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO AVG THRU SAT
NIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS M60S/L70S...MIN TEMPS M/U40S INTERIOR AND
U40/M50S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO ENE ON SAT THEN TO
THE E ON SUN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC. THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL PUSH OCEAN MODIFIED AIR BACK ONSHORE...ALLOWING MAX
TEMPS TO RECOVER TO CLIMO BY SUN AFTN WITH MAXES L/M70S...MINS
M/U50S INTERIOR AND U50/L60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALONG I-4 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT WITH
FRONT CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING. CURRENT...PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MANY SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUING TONIGHT. LCL IFR VSBYS IN +SHRA/TS.
GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON
WED BEHIND FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS
IMMEDIATELY AS FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WILL START OFF WITH STRONGLY WORDED
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OFFSHORE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS/GUSTY
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. AS FRONT ENTERS THE WATERS LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY BECOME 25-30 KTS AND GUSTY
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILDING TO
6-9 FT OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BY DAYBREAK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL MARINE LEGS NEAR DAYBREAK WED
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT BOATING.

WIDESPREAD (OFFSHORE MOVING) SHOWERS/SCT STRONG STORMS FROM CAPE
NORTHWARD WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY STRONGER CELLS ARE CAPABLE OF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND/OR WATERSPOUT. A WEATHER WATCH MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

WED...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ARE
LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALL LEGS. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/5-7 FT
NEAR SHORE. SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THU-SAT...(PREV DISC) IMPROVING CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
THE W ATLC. SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER FROM
NW TO E AND DIMINISH... MODERATE TO FRESH NW BREEZE ON THU...BCMG
A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE BREEZE ON FRI...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE
E/NE BREEZE ON SAT. SEAS WILL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU FRI AS
WINDS SWING THRU NE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE THE NRLY
WIND/SRLY CURRENT COMPONENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES. SEAS 4-6FT
NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE ON THU...SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE ON FRI...THRU SUNSET THU...THEN 3-4FT NEARSHORE
AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE ON SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  65  44  66 / 100  80   0   0
MCO  58  65  43  67 /  90  80   0   0
MLB  61  65  46  70 /  80  80   0   0
VRB  64  69  46  71 /  70  80  10   0
LEE  57  65  43  66 / 100  80   0   0
SFB  58  66  44  67 /  90  80   0   0
ORL  58  65  44  68 /  90  80   0   0
FPR  65  68  47  72 /  70  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST





000
FXUS62 KMLB 251955
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...FLOOD WATCH OSCEOLA AND BREVARD NORTHWARD INTO WEDNESDAY...
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WELL INTO TONIGHT...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD STARTING
LATE TONIGHT...
...TURNING COLDER AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MANY
LOCALES WITHIN THIS AREA REPORTING 2-5 INCH RAINS WITH NUISANCE
FLOODING. UNSEASONABLY WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS ECFL WITH
THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...HENCE THE FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE FOR
BREVARD-OSCEOLA NORTHWARD THROUGH WED MORNING. THE AREA UNDER THE
GUN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NEAR TERM REMAINS ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR AS ECHOES CONTINUE TO TRAIN HERE. THE FOCUS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE FLOOD
WATCH COVERAGE AREA THROUGH WED MORNING WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF CENTRAL OSCEOLA-SOUTHERN BREVARD
SOUTHWARD WILL RANGE FROM LATE EVENING-OVERNIGHT-EARLY WED MORNING.
RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEVELOPING COLDER CLOUD TOPS
ORGANIZING WITH HEAVY CONVECTION UNDERNEATH. KMLB NEXRAD 88D RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH OF
I-4 WITH THESE CELLS ADVANCING NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

THE SPC HAS KEPT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MANY FEATURES
REMAINING IN PLAY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/STRONG STORM POTENTIAL INCLUDE
DEEP MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW...UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...SUBTLE IMPULSES IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...MODEST
INSTABILITY AND STRONG UPPER JET OVER THE DEEP SOUTH PROVIDING
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HOW ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS COME TOGETHER
STILL REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THREATS FROM STORMS INCLUDE...TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL/NUISANCE FLOODING...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY DOWNBURST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND/OR A SHORT-LIVED WEAK
TORNADO OR TWO. A WEATHER WATCH MAY STILL BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.

THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS HUNG UP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL EVENTUALLY GET A KICK SOUTH AND
EAST AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
AND GOMEX. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL RIDE
UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING...THEN OFF
OF THE NORTHEAST FL COAST OVERNIGHT. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CWA BY AROUND
SUNRISE WED MORNING. WHILE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ALONG AND JUST OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL STILL LINGER AROUND BEHIND IT WITH SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WED. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME W/NW
BEHIND IT WITH BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS LASTING FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS AFTER PASSAGE. TIMING OF FRONT ALONG WITH THICK
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE OVERNIGHT LOWS CHALLENGING.
TEMPERATURES ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 ARE FORECAST TO DROP LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S WITH 60S FURTHER SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT LOWER
70S POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST.

WED...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ECFL THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND
OUT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL RACE UP THE ATLANTIC EAST COAST
DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANT
AS IT PUSHES THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z-18Z...SO EXPECT DECREASING TREND
FOR BOTH COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THIS TIME.
BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW BRIEFLY WITH WIND SPEEDS
SETTLING DOWN TO 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY WITH OCNL HIGHER WIND
GUSTS. TEMPERATURES AT SUNRISE WILL BE THE HIGHEST WE WILL SEE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS COOLER AIR FILTERS DOWN AND
TEMPERATURES FALL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S AREAWIDE...BUT THIS DAY WILL FEEL BOTH COOLER/DRIER THAN THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.

WED NIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH LOWS WELL INTO THE 40S
AREAWIDE WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
RATHER QUICKLY TO LESS THAN 10 MPH PAST DUSK SO WIND CHILL ISSUES
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS DESPITE THE LOWER READINGS.

THU-THU NIGHT...REMAINING NOTICEABLY COOLER DESPITE FULL SUN THU
AS A DEEP NW FLOW PUSHES A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS ACRS THE FL
PENINSULA. TEMPS 5-10F BLO CLIMO. MAX TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 70F MARK...RANGING FROM THE M/U60S ALONG AND N OF I-4 TO ARND
70F ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. MIN TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L/M40S OVER
THE INTERIOR AND IN THE U40S/L50S ALNG THE COAST.

FRI-MON...SLOW WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE POST FRONTAL RIDGE DRIFTS ACRS THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH AND INTO
THE W ATLC. N/NWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AOB CLIMO AVG THRU SAT
NIGHT WITH MAX TEMPS M60S/L70S...MIN TEMPS M/U40S INTERIOR AND
U40/M50S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL VEER TO ENE ON SAT THEN TO
THE E ON SUN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC. THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL PUSH OCEAN MODIFIED AIR BACK ONSHORE...ALLOWING MAX
TEMPS TO RECOVER TO CLIMO BY SUN AFTN WITH MAXES L/M70S...MINS
M/U50S INTERIOR AND U50/L60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ALONG I-4 CORRIDOR INTO TONIGHT WITH
FRONT CROSSING INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WED MORNING. CURRENT...PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS/CIGS MANY SITES WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CONTINUING TONIGHT. LCL IFR VSBYS IN +SHRA/TS.
GRADUAL IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON
WED BEHIND FRONT. BREEZY/GUSTY W/NW WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS
IMMEDIATELY AS FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WILL START OFF WITH STRONGLY WORDED
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS OFFSHORE FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS/GUSTY
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT. AS FRONT ENTERS THE WATERS LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY BECOME 25-30 KTS AND GUSTY
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC SPREADING NORTH TO SOUTH. SEAS BUILDING TO
6-9 FT OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BY DAYBREAK. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL MARINE LEGS NEAR DAYBREAK WED
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT BOATING.

WIDESPREAD (OFFSHORE MOVING) SHOWERS/SCT STRONG STORMS FROM CAPE
NORTHWARD WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ANY STRONGER CELLS ARE CAPABLE OF
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO
WATER LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND/OR WATERSPOUT. A WEATHER WATCH MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.

WED...COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC ARE
LIKELY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALL LEGS. HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT OFFSHORE/5-7 FT
NEAR SHORE. SHOWERS/STORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THU-SAT...(PREV DISC) IMPROVING CONDITIONS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A POST FRONTAL HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO
THE W ATLC. SFC PGRAD WILL SLACKEN...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER FROM
NW TO E AND DIMINISH... MODERATE TO FRESH NW BREEZE ON THU...BCMG
A GENTLE TO MODERATE N/NE BREEZE ON FRI...THEN A LIGHT TO GENTLE
E/NE BREEZE ON SAT. SEAS WILL WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THRU FRI AS
WINDS SWING THRU NE...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE THE NRLY
WIND/SRLY CURRENT COMPONENT WILL GENERATE SQUARE WAVES. SEAS 4-6FT
NEARSHORE AND 6-8FT OFFSHORE ON THU...SUBSIDING TO 3-5FT NEARSHORE
AND 5-6FT OFFSHORE ON FRI...THRU SUNSET THU...THEN 3-4FT NEARSHORE
AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE ON SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  57  65  44  66 / 100  80   0   0
MCO  58  65  43  67 /  90  80   0   0
MLB  61  65  46  70 /  80  80   0   0
VRB  64  69  46  71 /  70  80  10   0
LEE  57  65  43  66 / 100  80   0   0
SFB  58  66  44  67 /  90  80   0   0
ORL  58  65  44  68 /  90  80   0   0
FPR  65  68  47  72 /  70  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST






000
FXUS62 KTAE 251940
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Surface data across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico show an area of
low pressure continuing to develop along a stalled frontal boundary.
An area of isentropic ascent on the NW side of this low pressure
area/frontal zone continues to produce widespread rain extending
from TLH westward across the Panhandle and into SE Alabama. Model
guidance is in good agreement that this area of ascent will reach
its greatest magnitude around 21z this afternoon and then shift
north of the area through the evening hours. As this occurs, a mid
level trough will be moving across the Gulf Coast and as it nears
the region, will sweep the low pressure area off to the NE resulting
in clearing conditions around sunrise in the western areas.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
There is a 20-30% chance of rain for our eastern zones Wednesday
morning from the wrap around moisture associated with the cold
front, but once the system lifts off to the northeast in the
afternoon, we will start to notice the colder, drier air moving in
as surface high pressure starts to build eastward. This airmass
won`t be as cold as last week`s cold front, but highs will struggle
to reach 60 both Wednesday and on Thanksgiving despite clearing
skies. Lows will return to the mid to upper 30s, with a light
freeze (brushing around 32F for an hour or so) even possible in
our northwestern zones Thursday night.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern
states through the long term period. There are no significant
chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and
moisture will begin to increase again early next week. The airmass
will be cool and dry through Friday night, with highs in the upper
50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the
weekend however, the airmass will begin to modify and we will
warm up a bit to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the
40s to around 50.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] As the rain and clouds persist through
the evening, so will the low CIGs. ECP, DHN and ABY will have MVFR
conditions through 12Z when clearing should begin. TLH and VLD
celings are currently IFR improving to MVFR after 00Z. Brief
periods of IFR are possible at all terminals during heavy
rainfall.


&&

.Marine...
Winds and waves will continue to ramp up overnight, with seas
peaking at 7 to 9 feet occasionally as high as 11 feet and gusts to
gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds will begin to
decrease Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, winds and
waves will fall below headline criteria and remain so for the
remainder of the period.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Much drier air will move into the region over the next few days,
with minimum humidity values in the 30s and 40s. However, with very
wet fuel conditions, there are no fire weather concerns.


&&

.Hydrology...
For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  60  36  63  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
Panama City   43  62  46  62  41 / 100   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  59  38  58  34 / 100   0   0   0   0
Albany        42  59  35  60  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  60  36  61  35 / 100  20   0   0   0
Cross City    49  63  36  64  34 / 100  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  47  62  46  62  40 / 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 251940
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Surface data across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico show an area of
low pressure continuing to develop along a stalled frontal boundary.
An area of isentropic ascent on the NW side of this low pressure
area/frontal zone continues to produce widespread rain extending
from TLH westward across the Panhandle and into SE Alabama. Model
guidance is in good agreement that this area of ascent will reach
its greatest magnitude around 21z this afternoon and then shift
north of the area through the evening hours. As this occurs, a mid
level trough will be moving across the Gulf Coast and as it nears
the region, will sweep the low pressure area off to the NE resulting
in clearing conditions around sunrise in the western areas.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
There is a 20-30% chance of rain for our eastern zones Wednesday
morning from the wrap around moisture associated with the cold
front, but once the system lifts off to the northeast in the
afternoon, we will start to notice the colder, drier air moving in
as surface high pressure starts to build eastward. This airmass
won`t be as cold as last week`s cold front, but highs will struggle
to reach 60 both Wednesday and on Thanksgiving despite clearing
skies. Lows will return to the mid to upper 30s, with a light
freeze (brushing around 32F for an hour or so) even possible in
our northwestern zones Thursday night.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern
states through the long term period. There are no significant
chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and
moisture will begin to increase again early next week. The airmass
will be cool and dry through Friday night, with highs in the upper
50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the
weekend however, the airmass will begin to modify and we will
warm up a bit to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the
40s to around 50.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] As the rain and clouds persist through
the evening, so will the low CIGs. ECP, DHN and ABY will have MVFR
conditions through 12Z when clearing should begin. TLH and VLD
celings are currently IFR improving to MVFR after 00Z. Brief
periods of IFR are possible at all terminals during heavy
rainfall.


&&

.Marine...
Winds and waves will continue to ramp up overnight, with seas
peaking at 7 to 9 feet occasionally as high as 11 feet and gusts to
gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds will begin to
decrease Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, winds and
waves will fall below headline criteria and remain so for the
remainder of the period.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Much drier air will move into the region over the next few days,
with minimum humidity values in the 30s and 40s. However, with very
wet fuel conditions, there are no fire weather concerns.


&&

.Hydrology...
For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  60  36  63  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
Panama City   43  62  46  62  41 / 100   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  59  38  58  34 / 100   0   0   0   0
Albany        42  59  35  60  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  60  36  61  35 / 100  20   0   0   0
Cross City    49  63  36  64  34 / 100  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  47  62  46  62  40 / 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 251940
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Surface data across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico show an area of
low pressure continuing to develop along a stalled frontal boundary.
An area of isentropic ascent on the NW side of this low pressure
area/frontal zone continues to produce widespread rain extending
from TLH westward across the Panhandle and into SE Alabama. Model
guidance is in good agreement that this area of ascent will reach
its greatest magnitude around 21z this afternoon and then shift
north of the area through the evening hours. As this occurs, a mid
level trough will be moving across the Gulf Coast and as it nears
the region, will sweep the low pressure area off to the NE resulting
in clearing conditions around sunrise in the western areas.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
There is a 20-30% chance of rain for our eastern zones Wednesday
morning from the wrap around moisture associated with the cold
front, but once the system lifts off to the northeast in the
afternoon, we will start to notice the colder, drier air moving in
as surface high pressure starts to build eastward. This airmass
won`t be as cold as last week`s cold front, but highs will struggle
to reach 60 both Wednesday and on Thanksgiving despite clearing
skies. Lows will return to the mid to upper 30s, with a light
freeze (brushing around 32F for an hour or so) even possible in
our northwestern zones Thursday night.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern
states through the long term period. There are no significant
chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and
moisture will begin to increase again early next week. The airmass
will be cool and dry through Friday night, with highs in the upper
50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the
weekend however, the airmass will begin to modify and we will
warm up a bit to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the
40s to around 50.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] As the rain and clouds persist through
the evening, so will the low CIGs. ECP, DHN and ABY will have MVFR
conditions through 12Z when clearing should begin. TLH and VLD
celings are currently IFR improving to MVFR after 00Z. Brief
periods of IFR are possible at all terminals during heavy
rainfall.


&&

.Marine...
Winds and waves will continue to ramp up overnight, with seas
peaking at 7 to 9 feet occasionally as high as 11 feet and gusts to
gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds will begin to
decrease Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, winds and
waves will fall below headline criteria and remain so for the
remainder of the period.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Much drier air will move into the region over the next few days,
with minimum humidity values in the 30s and 40s. However, with very
wet fuel conditions, there are no fire weather concerns.


&&

.Hydrology...
For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  60  36  63  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
Panama City   43  62  46  62  41 / 100   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  59  38  58  34 / 100   0   0   0   0
Albany        42  59  35  60  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  60  36  61  35 / 100  20   0   0   0
Cross City    49  63  36  64  34 / 100  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  47  62  46  62  40 / 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 251940
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
240 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Surface data across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico show an area of
low pressure continuing to develop along a stalled frontal boundary.
An area of isentropic ascent on the NW side of this low pressure
area/frontal zone continues to produce widespread rain extending
from TLH westward across the Panhandle and into SE Alabama. Model
guidance is in good agreement that this area of ascent will reach
its greatest magnitude around 21z this afternoon and then shift
north of the area through the evening hours. As this occurs, a mid
level trough will be moving across the Gulf Coast and as it nears
the region, will sweep the low pressure area off to the NE resulting
in clearing conditions around sunrise in the western areas.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
There is a 20-30% chance of rain for our eastern zones Wednesday
morning from the wrap around moisture associated with the cold
front, but once the system lifts off to the northeast in the
afternoon, we will start to notice the colder, drier air moving in
as surface high pressure starts to build eastward. This airmass
won`t be as cold as last week`s cold front, but highs will struggle
to reach 60 both Wednesday and on Thanksgiving despite clearing
skies. Lows will return to the mid to upper 30s, with a light
freeze (brushing around 32F for an hour or so) even possible in
our northwestern zones Thursday night.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
High pressure will continue to push eastward over the southeastern
states through the long term period. There are no significant
chances of rain through the period, although cloud cover and
moisture will begin to increase again early next week. The airmass
will be cool and dry through Friday night, with highs in the upper
50s to around 60 and lows in the mid to upper 30s. Over the
weekend however, the airmass will begin to modify and we will
warm up a bit to highs in the mid 60s to low 70s and lows in the
40s to around 50.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] As the rain and clouds persist through
the evening, so will the low CIGs. ECP, DHN and ABY will have MVFR
conditions through 12Z when clearing should begin. TLH and VLD
celings are currently IFR improving to MVFR after 00Z. Brief
periods of IFR are possible at all terminals during heavy
rainfall.


&&

.Marine...
Winds and waves will continue to ramp up overnight, with seas
peaking at 7 to 9 feet occasionally as high as 11 feet and gusts to
gale force possible over the offshore waters. Winds will begin to
decrease Wednesday morning and by Wednesday afternoon, winds and
waves will fall below headline criteria and remain so for the
remainder of the period.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Much drier air will move into the region over the next few days,
with minimum humidity values in the 30s and 40s. However, with very
wet fuel conditions, there are no fire weather concerns.


&&

.Hydrology...
For the last few days, ending at 18z today, between 2 and 4 inches
of rain had fallen across the region, with isolated maximum totals
in of 5 inches across Southwestern Georgia and into the Florida
Panhandle. Over the next 18 to 24 hours, an additional 1 to 2 inches
is possible, primarily focused across the Florida Panhandle and into
Southwestern Georgia. The areal flood potential through the
remainder of this event is low. However, steady rises will continue
through much of this week on area rivers. Given the bulk of the
rainfall occurring in the Flint/Ochlockonee River basins, expect
the most notable rises in these basins, particularly below Newton
and Thomasville, respectively. Thomasville and Concord may reach
action stage in the days ahead. However, these and all river points
are expected to remain below flood stage.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  60  36  63  34 / 100  10   0   0   0
Panama City   43  62  46  62  41 / 100   0   0   0   0
Dothan        42  59  38  58  34 / 100   0   0   0   0
Albany        42  59  35  60  33 / 100  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  60  36  61  35 / 100  20   0   0   0
Cross City    49  63  36  64  34 / 100  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  47  62  46  62  40 / 100   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KJAX 251937
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
237 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
LOW PRESSURE ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST GOMEX WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A FEW ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADO POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE. WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL HEAVY
AT TIMES WILL OVERSPREAD SE GA WITH ELEVATED THUNDER EXPECTED AS
WELL. DETAILS OF FLOODING ISSUES IN HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. FLOOD
WATCH APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW...WITH SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OCALA TO ST AUGUSTINE FOR MARION, PUTNAM,
FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER NE FL WILL SLOWLY EJECT INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND
THIS WILL SIGNAL AN END TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT RAINFALL
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL REMAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. AS THE LOW
PUSHES OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFIES...THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-25G35 MPH TOWARDS MORNING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE ATLC COASTAL COUNTIES...LIKELY TO FALL JUST SHORT OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PUSH
DOWN A FEW TREES SINCE THE GROUND WILL BE SATURATED. TEMPS WILL FALL
STEADILY THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...

WEDNESDAY...BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING AS LOW PULLS
AWAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT COMES TO AN END AND ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT NEAR
60 DEGREES IN THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM /THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A COOL DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE AT OUR
NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND THE TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN INCREASES IN INTENSITY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
RAIN. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATE
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHIFTING WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WITH
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BI-SECTING THE NE FL COASTAL WATERS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST SURGE CLOSE TO
25-30 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN A SLOW DECREASING TREND INTO WED
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW. WILL SEE A
LULL IN CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LET SCA REMAIN IN
PLACE SINCE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE
AREA. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK LIKELY TO BE DOWNGRADED TO LOW RISK IN
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWO PRONGED
APPROACH AS WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES ISOLATED HIGHER 6 INCH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL AS LOW TRACKS ACRS THE REGION AND TRAINING
CONVECTION MAY PUSH ISOLD HIGHER TOTALS CLOSE TO 8 INCHES SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
ACROSS MARION/PUTNAM/FLAGLER COUNTIES. ACROSS SE GA...WIDESPREAD 3-5
INCH TOTALS FROM THE PAST 2-3 DAYS HAS SATURATED THE SOILS AND EVENT
TONIGHT NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS BUT STILL A SOLID
1-2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ISSUES. STILL
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS AREAS ACROSS NE FL SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. RIVER/STREAMS/CREEKS ALL LOOK TO PUSH TO NEAR
BANKFULL AND/OR ACTION STAGES DURING AND/OR FOLLOWING THE EVENT.
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF RAINFALL MAY PUSH SYSTEMS LIKE BLACK CREEK
OR ST. MARYS INTO FLOOD IF MAX RAINFALL LANDS IN THEIR BASIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 25TH AT...
JAX...1.45 INCHES SET IN 1972.
GNV...1.67 INCHES SET IN 1972.
AMG...0.88 INCHES SET IN 2000.
SSI...1.32 INCHES SET IN 2004.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  48  59  39  59 / 100  90  10   0
SSI  53  59  43  61 / 100  80  10   0
JAX  52  61  39  62 / 100  80   0   0
SGJ  54  60  44  64 / 100  90   0   0
GNV  52  61  39  64 / 100  60   0   0
OCF  54  62  39  66 / 100  70   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/HESS/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KJAX 251937
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
237 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
LOW PRESSURE ON FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHEAST GOMEX WILL TRACK
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND TRAINING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND A FEW ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR TORNADO POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE. WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING RAINFALL HEAVY
AT TIMES WILL OVERSPREAD SE GA WITH ELEVATED THUNDER EXPECTED AS
WELL. DETAILS OF FLOODING ISSUES IN HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. FLOOD
WATCH APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW...WITH SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POTENTIAL
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OCALA TO ST AUGUSTINE FOR MARION, PUTNAM,
FLAGLER AND ST JOHNS COUNTIES.

TONIGHT...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER NE FL WILL SLOWLY EJECT INTO THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND
THIS WILL SIGNAL AN END TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT RAINFALL
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL STILL REMAIN HEAVY AT TIMES. AS THE LOW
PUSHES OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFIES...THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-25G35 MPH TOWARDS MORNING WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE ATLC COASTAL COUNTIES...LIKELY TO FALL JUST SHORT OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT THIS MIGHT BE JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PUSH
DOWN A FEW TREES SINCE THE GROUND WILL BE SATURATED. TEMPS WILL FALL
STEADILY THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TOWARDS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM...

WEDNESDAY...BREEZY AND WET CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING AS LOW PULLS
AWAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT COMES TO AN END AND ENDS FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT NEAR
60 DEGREES IN THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW.

.LONG TERM /THANKSGIVING DAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY/...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM OUR WEST ON THANKSGIVING
DAY. MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A COOL DRY AIR MASS
IN PLACE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL ON THANKSGIVING DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
TIMES DUE TO GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE AT OUR
NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND THE TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON
SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AS MID LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS
POSSIBLE BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS WIDESPREAD
RAIN INCREASES IN INTENSITY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER
RAIN. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME RATHER GUSTY LATE
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OFFSHORE. RAIN WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO
MVFR LATE TONIGHT AND THEN VFR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHIFTING WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WITH
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BI-SECTING THE NE FL COASTAL WATERS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST SURGE CLOSE TO
25-30 KNOTS AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN A SLOW DECREASING TREND INTO WED
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW. WILL SEE A
LULL IN CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LET SCA REMAIN IN
PLACE SINCE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. WILL
SEE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NEARS THE
AREA. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK LIKELY TO BE DOWNGRADED TO LOW RISK IN
THE OFFSHORE FLOW FOR WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TWO PRONGED
APPROACH AS WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES ISOLATED HIGHER 6 INCH AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL AS LOW TRACKS ACRS THE REGION AND TRAINING
CONVECTION MAY PUSH ISOLD HIGHER TOTALS CLOSE TO 8 INCHES SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT
ACROSS MARION/PUTNAM/FLAGLER COUNTIES. ACROSS SE GA...WIDESPREAD 3-5
INCH TOTALS FROM THE PAST 2-3 DAYS HAS SATURATED THE SOILS AND EVENT
TONIGHT NOT AS CONFIDENT WITH HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS BUT STILL A SOLID
1-2 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD PRODUCE FLOODING ISSUES. STILL
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING IS AREAS ACROSS NE FL SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR. RIVER/STREAMS/CREEKS ALL LOOK TO PUSH TO NEAR
BANKFULL AND/OR ACTION STAGES DURING AND/OR FOLLOWING THE EVENT.
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS OF RAINFALL MAY PUSH SYSTEMS LIKE BLACK CREEK
OR ST. MARYS INTO FLOOD IF MAX RAINFALL LANDS IN THEIR BASIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 25TH AT...
JAX...1.45 INCHES SET IN 1972.
GNV...1.67 INCHES SET IN 1972.
AMG...0.88 INCHES SET IN 2000.
SSI...1.32 INCHES SET IN 2004.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  48  59  39  59 / 100  90  10   0
SSI  53  59  43  61 / 100  80  10   0
JAX  52  61  39  62 / 100  80   0   0
SGJ  54  60  44  64 / 100  90   0   0
GNV  52  61  39  64 / 100  60   0   0
OCF  54  62  39  66 / 100  70   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/HESS/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KMFL 251810
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
110 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ALL SITES AS INDICATED BY MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE MORNING
AROUND APF AND BY MID DAY ALONG EAST COAST SITES ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS
COULD IMPACT THE APF AREA BUT GIVEN THREAT IS MARGINAL WILL PLAY
AS IT GOES AND AMEND IF NEEDED.

SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN SW TONIGHT AND NW BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL SITES AS BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
ENSUE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDING DOWN INTO CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING...AS A 595 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALSO LOCATED OVER
NORTH FLORIDA EXTENDING BACK TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WAS ALLOWING FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...BUT THE SURFACE WINDS WHERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE AREA BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH THE DRIER AIR
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MEANWHILE TODAY THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS.

THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THE POPS WILL THEN INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE 50 KNOT JET STREAK ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
OVER THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS THAT COULD
BECOME STRONG OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE MID
LEVEL JET AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE
STRONG STORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE COULD ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AND THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...DUE TO THE TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT. BUT THE RISK
IS MARGINAL. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL END THE THREAT OF TORNADOES OVER THIS AREA WITH A
MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MAINLY
ACROSS WEST COAST AND LAKE REGIONS.

ONCE THE FRONT GETS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MID LEVEL
JET AND THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING AND END TO THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS OCCASIONAL CEILINGS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY AND COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. FOR TERMINAL
KAPF...REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING THE KAPF RECENT
OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE NEAR IFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DIFFICULT TO
ASSESS WHEN THE CEILING MAY BEGIN TO LIFT BUT IS FORECAST TO BE
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 14-15Z THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION IS FORECAST TO START LATE TODAY AND INCREASE
OVER NIGHT.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO THE GULF COAST AND LAKE REGION OVERNIGHT
HAVE LIFTED NORTHWARD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH CIGS AROUND 600 FT. SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS
1-3KFT WERE ACROSS THE EAST COAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS AND TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH DEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOUTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE...WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION SETTING UP AROUND
850MB...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AFTER THE MORNING ACROSS
THE MOST OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE FROM NAPLES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE RECORD HIGH AT MIAMI
IS ONLY 86 DEGREES...AND ANOTHER RECORD HIGH COULD BE SET THERE
TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LAKE
REGION IS OUTLOOKED WITH A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT
LOOKS TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS TONIGHT DUE TO THE DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. SOME
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST BRIEFLY OVER THE GULF WATERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS BRIEFLY WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF WATERS
AROUND DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY STEADY AS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING DAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING MAY
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THANKSGIVING MORNING.
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER
70S.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...A ZONAL TO SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS LIKELY FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD
DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 15-20 KNOT ONSHORE FLOW.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. BOTH THE RECENT GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW STRATUS NEAR 1 KFT OR EVEN IN THE 700-900 FT
RANGE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR TO SUB-IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. THERE COULD BE BRIEF SUB-VFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...BUT SO FAR MAINLY FORECAST FOR TERMINAL
KAPF AND COULD BE NEAR IFR RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY...AGAIN WILL AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS GULF WATERS AND LAKE REGION BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE VCTS FOR TERMINAL KAPF.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN A SHARP INCREASE IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS BRIEFLY OVER THE
GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS WEDNESDAY, AND UP TO 8 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE ROUGH SIDE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY, WITH SEAS ONLY
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  76  54  70 /  50  60   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  78  57  72 /  40  50  10   0
MIAMI            74  78  57  72 /  40  50  10   0
NAPLES           67  70  51  70 /  70  60   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251810
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
110 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT AND MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CEILINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR ALL SITES AS INDICATED BY MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE IN THE MORNING
AROUND APF AND BY MID DAY ALONG EAST COAST SITES ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS
COULD IMPACT THE APF AREA BUT GIVEN THREAT IS MARGINAL WILL PLAY
AS IT GOES AND AMEND IF NEEDED.

SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TURN SW TONIGHT AND NW BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS ALL SITES AS BREEZY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
ENSUE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES EXTENDING DOWN INTO CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING...AS A 595 MB HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ALSO LOCATED OVER
NORTH FLORIDA EXTENDING BACK TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WAS ALLOWING FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING...BUT THE SURFACE WINDS WHERE FROM THE SOUTHEAST OVER
THE AREA BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PUSH THE DRIER AIR
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EASTWARD AND ALLOW FOR DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
MEANWHILE TODAY THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
EAST WILL KEEP A LID ON ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA PARTICULARLY THE EASTERN PORTIONS.

THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THE POPS WILL THEN INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT.

AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE 50 KNOT JET STREAK ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
OVER THOSE AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS THAT COULD
BECOME STRONG OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE MID
LEVEL JET AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE
STRONG STORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE COULD ALSO BE AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AND THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...DUE TO THE TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT. BUT THE RISK
IS MARGINAL. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL
OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL END THE THREAT OF TORNADOES OVER THIS AREA WITH A
MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG WIND GUSTS OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN MAINLY
ACROSS WEST COAST AND LAKE REGIONS.

ONCE THE FRONT GETS DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE MID LEVEL
JET AND THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING AND END TO THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS OCCASIONAL CEILINGS ARE MAINLY IN THE
MVFR CATEGORY AND COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. FOR TERMINAL
KAPF...REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING THE KAPF RECENT
OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE NEAR IFR TO IFR CEILINGS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DIFFICULT TO
ASSESS WHEN THE CEILING MAY BEGIN TO LIFT BUT IS FORECAST TO BE
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 14-15Z THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION IS FORECAST TO START LATE TODAY AND INCREASE
OVER NIGHT.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS THAT MOVED INTO THE GULF COAST AND LAKE REGION OVERNIGHT
HAVE LIFTED NORTHWARD...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. MUGGY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH CIGS AROUND 600 FT. SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS
1-3KFT WERE ACROSS THE EAST COAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS DIGGING ACROSS TEXAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BAHAMAS AND TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH DEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOUTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE...WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE REGION BY LATE MORNING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A TEMPERATURE INVERSION SETTING UP AROUND
850MB...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AFTER THE MORNING ACROSS
THE MOST OF THE REGION. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE FROM NAPLES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN
HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ONCE
AGAIN...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE RECORD HIGH AT MIAMI
IS ONLY 86 DEGREES...AND ANOTHER RECORD HIGH COULD BE SET THERE
TODAY.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY PUSH OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LAKE
REGION IS OUTLOOKED WITH A MARGINAL THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MAIN THREAT
LOOKS TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS TONIGHT DUE TO THE DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. SOME
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...RAIN CHANCES ARE LOWER.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THIS WILL PROVIDE LIFT BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST BRIEFLY OVER THE GULF WATERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS BRIEFLY WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE GULF WATERS
AROUND DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY STEADY AS COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. HIGHS ON THANKSGIVING DAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A
SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT...AND LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING MAY
EVEN BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN THANKSGIVING MORNING.
HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE LOWER
70S.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...A ZONAL TO SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS LIKELY FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH THIS PERIOD
DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 15-20 KNOT ONSHORE FLOW.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH SLOWLY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. BOTH THE RECENT GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT LOW STRATUS NEAR 1 KFT OR EVEN IN THE 700-900 FT
RANGE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THEREFORE BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR TO SUB-IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL AMEND AS NEEDED. THERE COULD BE BRIEF SUB-VFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS...BUT SO FAR MAINLY FORECAST FOR TERMINAL
KAPF AND COULD BE NEAR IFR RESTRICTIONS BRIEFLY...AGAIN WILL AMEND
AS NECESSARY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS GULF WATERS AND LAKE REGION BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE VCTS FOR TERMINAL KAPF.

MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...THEN A SHARP INCREASE IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AS A
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KNOTS BRIEFLY OVER THE
GULF WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MEXICO WATERS WEDNESDAY, AND UP TO 8 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE ROUGH SIDE THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY, WITH SEAS ONLY
SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
NORTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  76  54  70 /  50  60   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  78  57  72 /  40  50  10   0
MIAMI            74  78  57  72 /  40  50  10   0
NAPLES           67  70  51  70 /  70  60   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...52/PS



000
FXUS62 KTBW 251648 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1148 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SHOWING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE ISSUES A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE UNTIL NOONTIME ON WEDNESDAY. REST OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
..A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  59  65  50 / 100 100  60   0
FMY  83  65  69  51 /  50  80  70   0
GIF  81  58  66  49 / 100  90  70   0
SRQ  79  61  67  51 /  80  90  70   0
BKV  78  56  64  38 / 100 100  50   0
SPG  78  60  66  55 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 251648 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1148 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SHOWING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE ISSUES A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE UNTIL NOONTIME ON WEDNESDAY. REST OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
..A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  59  65  50 / 100 100  60   0
FMY  83  65  69  51 /  50  80  70   0
GIF  81  58  66  49 / 100  90  70   0
SRQ  79  61  67  51 /  80  90  70   0
BKV  78  56  64  38 / 100 100  50   0
SPG  78  60  66  55 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 251648 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1148 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SHOWING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE ISSUES A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE UNTIL NOONTIME ON WEDNESDAY. REST OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
..A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  59  65  50 / 100 100  60   0
FMY  83  65  69  51 /  50  80  70   0
GIF  81  58  66  49 / 100  90  70   0
SRQ  79  61  67  51 /  80  90  70   0
BKV  78  56  64  38 / 100 100  50   0
SPG  78  60  66  55 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 251648 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1148 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SHOWING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE ISSUES A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE UNTIL NOONTIME ON WEDNESDAY. REST OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
..A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  59  65  50 / 100 100  60   0
FMY  83  65  69  51 /  50  80  70   0
GIF  81  58  66  49 / 100  90  70   0
SRQ  79  61  67  51 /  80  90  70   0
BKV  78  56  64  38 / 100 100  50   0
SPG  78  60  66  55 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 251648 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1148 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SHOWING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE ISSUES A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE UNTIL NOONTIME ON WEDNESDAY. REST OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
..A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  59  65  50 / 100 100  60   0
FMY  83  65  69  51 /  50  80  70   0
GIF  81  58  66  49 / 100  90  70   0
SRQ  79  61  67  51 /  80  90  70   0
BKV  78  56  64  38 / 100 100  50   0
SPG  78  60  66  55 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 251648 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1148 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME THIS MORNING AND GUIDANCE SHOWING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD 2
TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVE ISSUES A FLOOD WATCH
FOR ALL COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR
CHARLOTTE AND LEE UNTIL NOONTIME ON WEDNESDAY. REST OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014/

..SOME WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
..A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...

UPDATE...
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES WITH LI`S IN
THE -2 TO -4C RANGE VIA 12Z RAOB DATA) COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYERED SHEAR (40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE) WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. THE DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COMBINED WITH ADDED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME SEVERE STORMS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
(PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
PROVIDING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING
FRONT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH AREAL BASIN AVERAGE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE THE TRAINING
OF STORMS OCCUR.

AS FOR THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE REGION REMAINS IN THE WARM AND UNSTABLE SECTOR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW...WITH ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA
DEEPENING FURTHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE ENHANCED RISK FOR SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS WILL ADD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
STRONG WIND WEATHER WORDING INTO THE GRIDS AND ZONES IN A MID
MORNING UPDATE. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN AND SEVERE THREAT THE WARM
AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVERRIDING THE COOLER GULF WATERS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A LARGE AREA OF SEA FOG THROUGH THE
DAY...SO HAVE ALREADY EXTENDED THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
THE GULF AND TAMPA BAY WATERS THROUGH 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO THE TERMINALS DURING THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE AT KSRQ...KPIE
AND KTPA TERMINALS DUE TO SEA FOG. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z FROM KSRQ NORTH TO KTPA AND KPIE
AND AFTER 09Z FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY AND KRSW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION.

MARINE...
DENSE SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAMPA BAY AND PARTS OF THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HUMID AIR CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. FOR THE REST
OF TODAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA...THOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 10 FEET
OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST....ALTHOUGH WINDS OFFSHORE
WILL REMAIN IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  59  65  50 / 100 100  60   0
FMY  83  65  69  51 /  50  80  70   0
GIF  81  58  66  49 / 100  90  70   0
SRQ  79  61  67  51 /  80  90  70   0
BKV  78  56  64  38 / 100 100  50   0
SPG  78  60  66  55 / 100 100  60   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK-SUMTER.

GULF WATERS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL





000
FXUS62 KJAX 251641 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...
HAVE POSTED FLOOD WATCH ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL. CONCERNS
HAVE GROWN OVER POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
STALLED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FROM OCALA TO PALM COAST AND IR SATL
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCD
WITH DEVELOPING WAVE ON THE FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND PUSH NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SE GA REGION HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 3-5 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD PCPN
THE PAST 2-3 DAYS AND JUST ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES THERE. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE FL...NOT AS MUCH ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED BUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL
ALONG WITH TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH TOTALS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FLOOD WATCH POSTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN RAINFALL WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&


.CLIMATE...

DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 25TH AT...
JAX...1.45 INCHES SET IN 1972.
GNV...1.67 INCHES SET IN 1972.
AMG...0.88 INCHES SET IN 2000.
SSI...1.32 INCHES SET IN 2004.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  47  58  38 /  90  80  40  10
SSI  65  49  58  43 /  90  90  60  10
JAX  70  49  61  39 / 100 100  50   0
SGJ  71  51  61  43 / 100 100  60   0
GNV  73  49  62  38 / 100 100  50   0
OCF  76  51  63  39 / 100 100  50   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 251641 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...
HAVE POSTED FLOOD WATCH ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL. CONCERNS
HAVE GROWN OVER POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
STALLED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FROM OCALA TO PALM COAST AND IR SATL
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCD
WITH DEVELOPING WAVE ON THE FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND PUSH NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SE GA REGION HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 3-5 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD PCPN
THE PAST 2-3 DAYS AND JUST ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES THERE. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE FL...NOT AS MUCH ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED BUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL
ALONG WITH TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH TOTALS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FLOOD WATCH POSTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN RAINFALL WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&


.CLIMATE...

DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 25TH AT...
JAX...1.45 INCHES SET IN 1972.
GNV...1.67 INCHES SET IN 1972.
AMG...0.88 INCHES SET IN 2000.
SSI...1.32 INCHES SET IN 2004.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  47  58  38 /  90  80  40  10
SSI  65  49  58  43 /  90  90  60  10
JAX  70  49  61  39 / 100 100  50   0
SGJ  71  51  61  43 / 100 100  60   0
GNV  73  49  62  38 / 100 100  50   0
OCF  76  51  63  39 / 100 100  50   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/GUILLET






000
FXUS62 KJAX 251641 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...
HAVE POSTED FLOOD WATCH ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL. CONCERNS
HAVE GROWN OVER POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
STALLED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FROM OCALA TO PALM COAST AND IR SATL
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCD
WITH DEVELOPING WAVE ON THE FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND PUSH NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SE GA REGION HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 3-5 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD PCPN
THE PAST 2-3 DAYS AND JUST ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES THERE. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE FL...NOT AS MUCH ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED BUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL
ALONG WITH TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH TOTALS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FLOOD WATCH POSTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN RAINFALL WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&


.CLIMATE...

DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 25TH AT...
JAX...1.45 INCHES SET IN 1972.
GNV...1.67 INCHES SET IN 1972.
AMG...0.88 INCHES SET IN 2000.
SSI...1.32 INCHES SET IN 2004.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  47  58  38 /  90  80  40  10
SSI  65  49  58  43 /  90  90  60  10
JAX  70  49  61  39 / 100 100  50   0
SGJ  71  51  61  43 / 100 100  60   0
GNV  73  49  62  38 / 100 100  50   0
OCF  76  51  63  39 / 100 100  50   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 251641 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...
HAVE POSTED FLOOD WATCH ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL. CONCERNS
HAVE GROWN OVER POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
STALLED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FROM OCALA TO PALM COAST AND IR SATL
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCD
WITH DEVELOPING WAVE ON THE FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND PUSH NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SE GA REGION HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 3-5 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD PCPN
THE PAST 2-3 DAYS AND JUST ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES THERE. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE FL...NOT AS MUCH ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED BUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL
ALONG WITH TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH TOTALS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FLOOD WATCH POSTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN RAINFALL WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&


.CLIMATE...

DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 25TH AT...
JAX...1.45 INCHES SET IN 1972.
GNV...1.67 INCHES SET IN 1972.
AMG...0.88 INCHES SET IN 2000.
SSI...1.32 INCHES SET IN 2004.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  47  58  38 /  90  80  40  10
SSI  65  49  58  43 /  90  90  60  10
JAX  70  49  61  39 / 100 100  50   0
SGJ  71  51  61  43 / 100 100  60   0
GNV  73  49  62  38 / 100 100  50   0
OCF  76  51  63  39 / 100 100  50   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 251641 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...
HAVE POSTED FLOOD WATCH ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL. CONCERNS
HAVE GROWN OVER POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
STALLED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FROM OCALA TO PALM COAST AND IR SATL
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCD
WITH DEVELOPING WAVE ON THE FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND PUSH NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SE GA REGION HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 3-5 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD PCPN
THE PAST 2-3 DAYS AND JUST ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES THERE. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE FL...NOT AS MUCH ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED BUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL
ALONG WITH TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH TOTALS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FLOOD WATCH POSTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN RAINFALL WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&


.CLIMATE...

DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 25TH AT...
JAX...1.45 INCHES SET IN 1972.
GNV...1.67 INCHES SET IN 1972.
AMG...0.88 INCHES SET IN 2000.
SSI...1.32 INCHES SET IN 2004.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  47  58  38 /  90  80  40  10
SSI  65  49  58  43 /  90  90  60  10
JAX  70  49  61  39 / 100 100  50   0
SGJ  71  51  61  43 / 100 100  60   0
GNV  73  49  62  38 / 100 100  50   0
OCF  76  51  63  39 / 100 100  50   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KJAX 251641 AAA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1141 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.UPDATE...
HAVE POSTED FLOOD WATCH ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL. CONCERNS
HAVE GROWN OVER POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
STALLED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA FROM OCALA TO PALM COAST AND IR SATL
IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHEAST GOMEX SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCD
WITH DEVELOPING WAVE ON THE FRONT THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND PUSH NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT.

SE GA REGION HAS ALREADY RECEIVED 3-5 INCHES OF WIDESPREAD PCPN
THE PAST 2-3 DAYS AND JUST ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
ISSUES THERE. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE FL...NOT AS MUCH ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED BUT THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAINFALL
ALONG WITH TRAINING OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH TOTALS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 6 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FLOOD WATCH POSTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN RAINFALL WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST...BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WED MORNING BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&


.CLIMATE...

DAILY PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 25TH AT...
JAX...1.45 INCHES SET IN 1972.
GNV...1.67 INCHES SET IN 1972.
AMG...0.88 INCHES SET IN 2000.
SSI...1.32 INCHES SET IN 2004.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  47  58  38 /  90  80  40  10
SSI  65  49  58  43 /  90  90  60  10
JAX  70  49  61  39 / 100 100  50   0
SGJ  71  51  61  43 / 100 100  60   0
GNV  73  49  62  38 / 100 100  50   0
OCF  76  51  63  39 / 100 100  50   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-
     NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE
     TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/GUILLET





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