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000
FXUS62 KTBW 071431
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
931 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING
OVER ALL THE GULF WATERS...

.MORNING UPDATE...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER REGION. LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ARE RAPIDLY ENDING...AS THE
SYSTEM SHIFTS TO THE EAST. WITH THE CLEARING OF CLOUDS...EXPECT
MIXING TO INCREASE AND WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SEE AN UPTICK IN WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER ALL
WATERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...AND NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCREASED WAVE ACTION AT AREA BEACHES WILL
ALSO PROMOTE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING WERE TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH LATE
MORNING...AND TO TWEAK OFFSHORE WINDS TO INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SPEEDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...IT STILL LOOKS TO BE
A RATHER CHILLY BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL RAPIDLY END FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY...AS DRIER
AIR IS USHERED IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY
NOON...WITH STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO
DECREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS OVER THE BAYS AND PROTECTED WATERS
BY MID AFTERNOON...WHILE OFFSHORE AND NEARSHORE WATERS REMAIN IN
ADVISORY WINDS/WAVES THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...ANOTHER POWERFUL FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...USHERING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  45  64  50 /  10   0  20  20
FMY  61  44  66  54 /  30   0   0  20
GIF  58  41  67  47 /  10   0  10  20
SRQ  57  46  66  53 /  10   0  10  20
BKV  57  38  65  46 /  10   0  20  30
SPG  57  49  65  53 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...02/GARCIA



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000
FXUS62 KMFL 071345 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
845 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY PUSHING THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO DISSIPATE BY NOON...AND
ALLOW FOR THE SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT FROM
THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
THE METRO AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE IT COULD FALL DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT IN WIND
PROTECTED AREAS.

THE WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DUE TO THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE...EXCEPT FOR
THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE BEEN 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE. THEREFORE...THE
SCA WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY EXCEPT
FOR THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR
BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AN NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATED...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING
AND VIS SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT...AND FINAL BAND OF
POST-FRONTAL SHWRS ARE ENTERING EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...COMMENCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
SEASON...WITH MINIMA TONIGHT REACHING UPPER 30S HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES...L/M40S MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY MONDAY MORNINGS.
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN
FALL LOW ENOUGH /36-38F/ TO SUPPORT FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RE REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FOR BOTH
COASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT PRESENT...HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
FRONTS/HIGH PRESSURE SURGES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

MARINE...
NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT...GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WARRANTS GALE WARNING FOR WATERS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...OTHERWISE SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ON ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUING. MOST LIKELY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE/WIND KEEP WAVES
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  41  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  44  67  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            65  45  66  54 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           62  45  64  58 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-
     172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....23/SK



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000
FXUS62 KJAX 071327
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
827 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS PRECIP MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WITH CLEARING
SKIES GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR FAR WRN COUNTIES. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF BACK CLOUD EDGE
DURING THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUN...COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD
TO A BRISK CHILLY DAY WITH CURRENT HIGH TEMPS OF MID-UPR 50S
LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWER CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ONWARD. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED
AT TAF SITES THRU THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT NEARSHORE ADVISORY AND OFFSHORE
GALE WARNING WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS INTO
THE EVENING. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME
TONIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING THEREAFTER.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  36  61  34 /  20   0  20   0
SSI  53  37  60  38 /  70   0  20  20
JAX  54  36  64  37 /  40   0  20  20
SGJ  54  38  65  41 /  40   0  20  20
GNV  56  34  65  38 /  20   0  20  20
OCF  57  37  66  40 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

WOLF/COMBS



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000
FXUS62 KTAE 071133
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
633 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

High clouds will move out of the region by mid morning and clear
skies are expected for the rest of the TAF cycle. Northwesterly
winds will be a little bit gusty today at times.

&&

.Prev Discussion [327 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
This morning, the low off the Florida coast will continue to move
out to sea as high pressure moves into the region. By mid morning
clouds will move out of the region. Today expect sunny skies and
POPs near zero. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Big changes are expected over the short term period as a large
upper low drops out of Canada and into the Ohio River Valley on
Monday. At the surface, a dry cold front will surge across the
region Monday afternoon. Breezy northwest winds will bring in a
dry and quite chilly airmass. High temperatures by Tuesday will
drop into the mid 40s across the northern zones and near 50 in
North Florida. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 20s
to near 30. 10 to 15 mph winds during the morning hours on Tuesday
will result in wind chills as cold as 20 degrees.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The chilly weather will continue into the first half of the long
term period. The upper low will begin to lift out into the
northeast by Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will build
over the region, which will put an end to the breezy conditions.
It`s during this time on Thursday and Friday mornings where low
temperatures could drop down into the mid 20s. However, given the
lack of consensus between the GFS/Euro regarding the placement of
the surface high pressure area, will keep the low temperature
forecast during this period in the upper 20s to near 30.

By Friday and beyond, the GFS has trended toward the Euro this
cycle suggesting that another cold front will move through the
region by Friday night into Saturday as the overall pattern across
the Eastern CONUS amplifies again. Obviously, there`s still some
spread between the GFS/Euro solutions out this far, but the
forecast was trended more toward the Euro solution. This results
in a temperature forecast Friday-Sunday that`s a little below
climatology for mid February.


.Marine...
As an area of low pressure strengthens off the Florida East Coast,
winds over the Eastern Gulf will increase to advisory levels
through this afternoon before diminishing tonight. On Monday
afternoon, a dry cold front will move quickly across the marine
area. Winds behind this cold front will increase significantly,
possibly to gale force. A lengthy stretch of gale force winds is
possible through Wednesday, before high pressure builds over the
marine area on Thursday, resulting in lighter winds.


.Fire Weather...
The next several days will be very dry. Red Flag Warning criteria
will not be met today since fuel moisture is still high and most
locations will be just above 30 percent relative humidity.


.Hydrology...
No significant rainfall is expected over the next seven days,
which will allow river levels across much of South Georgia and
Alabama to drop below action levels. However, down into North
Florida, flooding will continue for some time on the
Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola Rivers. The Withlacoochee River
will also be on the rise through the coming week.

On the Choctawhatchee, Caryville will crest this morning around 14
feet in minor flood stage. Further downstream at Bruce, moderate
flooding is expected to continue, with the river cresting near
15.5 feet on Tuesday afternoon.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola Rivers, releases from Walter F
George have been cut back considerably. Inflows from the Flint
into Lake Seminole will peak in the next 36 hours around 30kfcs.
As a result, it appears as though Woodruff will only be releasing
85kcfs just a little longer and decrease to around 70kcfs this
afternoon. Obviously, Blountstown will remain in flood for some
time, but the crest for this event around 21 feet will occur later
this morning, with the river dropping slowly throughout the
remainder of the week.

Over on the Withlacoochee/Little River system, Valdosta is
cresting this morning. Increased flows down the Little River will
approach peak levels late tonight into Monday. The combined flow
from these two sources will result in rises at the US-84 crossing
approaching 107.5 feet on Tuesday night, just below moderate flood
stage. Should this crest verify, the next downstream point near
Pinetta could approach flood stage late next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  36  62  34  50 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   57  47  59  38  49 /   0   0  10  10   0
Dothan        57  37  57  31  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
Albany        57  35  58  31  46 /   0   0  20   0   0
Valdosta      56  35  61  33  49 /   0   0  20  10   0
Cross City    57  37  64  36  52 /   0   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  58  44  62  39  51 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening FOR
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening FOR
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



000
FXUS62 KTAE 071133
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
633 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

High clouds will move out of the region by mid morning and clear
skies are expected for the rest of the TAF cycle. Northwesterly
winds will be a little bit gusty today at times.

&&

.Prev Discussion [327 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
This morning, the low off the Florida coast will continue to move
out to sea as high pressure moves into the region. By mid morning
clouds will move out of the region. Today expect sunny skies and
POPs near zero. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Big changes are expected over the short term period as a large
upper low drops out of Canada and into the Ohio River Valley on
Monday. At the surface, a dry cold front will surge across the
region Monday afternoon. Breezy northwest winds will bring in a
dry and quite chilly airmass. High temperatures by Tuesday will
drop into the mid 40s across the northern zones and near 50 in
North Florida. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 20s
to near 30. 10 to 15 mph winds during the morning hours on Tuesday
will result in wind chills as cold as 20 degrees.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The chilly weather will continue into the first half of the long
term period. The upper low will begin to lift out into the
northeast by Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will build
over the region, which will put an end to the breezy conditions.
It`s during this time on Thursday and Friday mornings where low
temperatures could drop down into the mid 20s. However, given the
lack of consensus between the GFS/Euro regarding the placement of
the surface high pressure area, will keep the low temperature
forecast during this period in the upper 20s to near 30.

By Friday and beyond, the GFS has trended toward the Euro this
cycle suggesting that another cold front will move through the
region by Friday night into Saturday as the overall pattern across
the Eastern CONUS amplifies again. Obviously, there`s still some
spread between the GFS/Euro solutions out this far, but the
forecast was trended more toward the Euro solution. This results
in a temperature forecast Friday-Sunday that`s a little below
climatology for mid February.


.Marine...
As an area of low pressure strengthens off the Florida East Coast,
winds over the Eastern Gulf will increase to advisory levels
through this afternoon before diminishing tonight. On Monday
afternoon, a dry cold front will move quickly across the marine
area. Winds behind this cold front will increase significantly,
possibly to gale force. A lengthy stretch of gale force winds is
possible through Wednesday, before high pressure builds over the
marine area on Thursday, resulting in lighter winds.


.Fire Weather...
The next several days will be very dry. Red Flag Warning criteria
will not be met today since fuel moisture is still high and most
locations will be just above 30 percent relative humidity.


.Hydrology...
No significant rainfall is expected over the next seven days,
which will allow river levels across much of South Georgia and
Alabama to drop below action levels. However, down into North
Florida, flooding will continue for some time on the
Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola Rivers. The Withlacoochee River
will also be on the rise through the coming week.

On the Choctawhatchee, Caryville will crest this morning around 14
feet in minor flood stage. Further downstream at Bruce, moderate
flooding is expected to continue, with the river cresting near
15.5 feet on Tuesday afternoon.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola Rivers, releases from Walter F
George have been cut back considerably. Inflows from the Flint
into Lake Seminole will peak in the next 36 hours around 30kfcs.
As a result, it appears as though Woodruff will only be releasing
85kcfs just a little longer and decrease to around 70kcfs this
afternoon. Obviously, Blountstown will remain in flood for some
time, but the crest for this event around 21 feet will occur later
this morning, with the river dropping slowly throughout the
remainder of the week.

Over on the Withlacoochee/Little River system, Valdosta is
cresting this morning. Increased flows down the Little River will
approach peak levels late tonight into Monday. The combined flow
from these two sources will result in rises at the US-84 crossing
approaching 107.5 feet on Tuesday night, just below moderate flood
stage. Should this crest verify, the next downstream point near
Pinetta could approach flood stage late next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  36  62  34  50 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   57  47  59  38  49 /   0   0  10  10   0
Dothan        57  37  57  31  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
Albany        57  35  58  31  46 /   0   0  20   0   0
Valdosta      56  35  61  33  49 /   0   0  20  10   0
Cross City    57  37  64  36  52 /   0   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  58  44  62  39  51 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening FOR
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening FOR
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KMFL 071131 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING
AND VIS SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT...AND FINAL BAND OF
POST-FRONTAL SHWRS ARE ENTERING EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...COMMENCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
SEASON...WITH MINIMA TONIGHT REACHING UPPER 30S HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES...L/M40S MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY MONDAY MORNINGS.
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN
FALL LOW ENOUGH /36-38F/ TO SUPPORT FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RE REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FOR BOTH
COASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT PRESENT...HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
FRONTS/HIGH PRESSURE SURGES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

MARINE...
NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT...GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WARRANTS GALE WARNING FOR WATERS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...OTHERWISE SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ON ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUING. MOST LIKELY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE/WIND KEEP WAVES
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  40  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  45  67  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  46  66  54 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           62  45  64  58 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88/ALM
LONG TERM....52/PS
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 071131 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING
AND VIS SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT...AND FINAL BAND OF
POST-FRONTAL SHWRS ARE ENTERING EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...COMMENCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
SEASON...WITH MINIMA TONIGHT REACHING UPPER 30S HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES...L/M40S MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY MONDAY MORNINGS.
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN
FALL LOW ENOUGH /36-38F/ TO SUPPORT FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RE REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FOR BOTH
COASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT PRESENT...HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
FRONTS/HIGH PRESSURE SURGES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

MARINE...
NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT...GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WARRANTS GALE WARNING FOR WATERS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...OTHERWISE SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ON ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUING. MOST LIKELY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE/WIND KEEP WAVES
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  40  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  45  67  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  46  66  54 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           62  45  64  58 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88/ALM
LONG TERM....52/PS
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KTBW 070933
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
433 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH A FEW
LIGHT SPRINKLES REMAIN AS POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
MOVING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. THIS WONT PUSH OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SO THE ADDED LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS OF LIGHT SPRINKLES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. STRONG
CAA ALREADY TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY NW WINDS ALREADY
OCCURRING AREA WIDE. THIS COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE WARMER GULF
WATERS WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHALLOW STRATOCU OVER THE GULF
WATERS. SO SOME COASTAL SPOTS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY DURING THE
MORNING BEFORE EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT LATER IN THE DAY. BY
AFTERNOON...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD REIGN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY DAY FOR FLORIDIANS. AFTERNOON
TEMPS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S WITH MAYBE FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES JUST ECLIPSING THE 60 DEGREE MARK. COOLER TEMPS COMBINED
WITH WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN
COLDER.

SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40. EXPECTING WINDS TO SUBSIDE
SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET SO WE SHOULD AVOID ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CONCERNS.

WE WILL WARM UP SOME ON MONDAY...ALTHOUGH STILL BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. THIS WILL BRING IN ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WHICH
WILL AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS
AND LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN SO WE SHOULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS ROBUST WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SETUP WITH DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF OF MEXICO CAUSING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO MOVE IN OFF THE GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MORE COOL DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK. LATE IN
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN SOME WITH
HEIGHTS RISING A LITTLE OVER FLORIDA. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND OVER FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION DURING SATURDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND TO SETUP LATE IN THE
WEEK ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS BEGINNING TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH
SOME MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD ALTHOUGH GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES WILL CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON
WITH SKC EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS IS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. ALREADY SEEING A
TIGHTENING GRADIENT  ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH WINDS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO ADVISORY LEVELS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE BRIEFLY
SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS DECREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SURGE OF WINDS ARRIVES
OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE ALL BUT CERTAIN AREA WIDE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR ALL
GULF WATERS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS SUSTAINED WINDS WILL APPROACH 30 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS ABOVE GALE FORCE LIKELY. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 10-12
FEET ACROSS GULF WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK. WHILE LOW HUMIDITIES MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...ALONG
WITH ERC VALUES...AND NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  45  64  50 /  10   0  20  20
FMY  61  44  66  54 /  10   0   0  20
GIF  59  41  67  47 /   0   0  10  20
SRQ  57  46  66  53 /  10   0  10  20
BKV  55  38  65  46 /  10   0  20  30
SPG  57  49  65  53 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 070838
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT...AND FINAL BAND OF
POST-FRONTAL SHWRS ARE ENTERING EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...COMMENCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
SEASON...WITH MINIMA TONIGHT REACHING UPPER 30S HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES...L/M40S MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY MONDAY MORNINGS.
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN
FALL LOW ENOUGH /36-38F/ TO SUPPORT FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RE REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FOR BOTH
COASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT PRESENT...HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
FRONTS/HIGH PRESSURE SURGES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT...GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WARRANTS GALE WARNING FOR WATERS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...OTHERWISE SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ON ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUING. MOST LIKELY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE/WIND KEEP WAVES
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  40  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  45  67  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  46  66  54 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           62  45  64  58 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...88/ALM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 070838
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT...AND FINAL BAND OF
POST-FRONTAL SHWRS ARE ENTERING EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...COMMENCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
SEASON...WITH MINIMA TONIGHT REACHING UPPER 30S HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES...L/M40S MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY MONDAY MORNINGS.
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN
FALL LOW ENOUGH /36-38F/ TO SUPPORT FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RE REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FOR BOTH
COASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT PRESENT...HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
FRONTS/HIGH PRESSURE SURGES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT...GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WARRANTS GALE WARNING FOR WATERS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...OTHERWISE SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ON ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUING. MOST LIKELY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE/WIND KEEP WAVES
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  40  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  45  67  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  46  66  54 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           62  45  64  58 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...88/ALM



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 070829
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
...WINDY AND COLDER TODAY WITH VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

TODAY/TONIGHT...VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS FLORIDA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE REGION AS IT LIFTS N/NE. A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE A WINDY NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
WILL TRANSPORT A DRIER/COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. ISSUED A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FL COUNTIES TODAY WITH FORECAST
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH. MOS
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. A GRADUALLY EROSION OF THIS DECK IS
THEN EXPECTED WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING...STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIKELY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL EVEN PAST SUNRISE
CONTINUING CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING. EVEN AFTER CLOUDS
BREAK UP AND CLEAR ONLY EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
50S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH IS AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MON-THU...A CLOSED LOW INITIALLY CENTERED NEAR THE GRT LAKES
EARLY MON WL OPEN INTO A BROAD TROUGH TUE-WED WHILE MAINTAINING
ITS STRENGTH AS A RATHER DEEP CYCLONIC FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. PRESENCE OF THE FEATURE WL BRING UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A SERIES OF MAINLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES BEGINNING LATE MON AND AGAIN ON LATE TUE AND
AROUND LATE WED WL SUPPLY DRY/COLD AIR WITH NO SIG CHANCE OF
RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE U50S TO 60S DAILY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TWO OR THREE NIGHTS OF
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S OVER MOST OF THE AREA. PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF FRONTAL PSGS WL FORTUNATELY PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO OCCUR AND THUS THE THREAT FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED...THE EAST CST TROUGH WL MOVE EAST OF THE US CST LATE IN
THE WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OH VALLEY TO SE STATES WL
BRING QUIET CONDS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS
LOCALLY AND TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR FEB. HIGHS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
70S OVER A LARGE PART OF TEH AREA FOR THE FIRST TIME ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW CIGS AROUND 500-1000 FT
WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z WITH
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THIS AFT...AROUND 17-19Z AS DRIER AIR
BUILDING IN WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THIS LOWER CLOUD DECK. MODELS
INDICATE KDAB/KTIX MAY BE THE LAST TO HOLD ON TO THIS LOWER CLOUD
DECK. WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WITH NW WINDS GENERALLY 18-20 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
OVER THE WATERS AS LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE
WILL PRODUCE NW WINDS UP TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-15 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HEADLINES WILL THEN NEED TO TRANSITION TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE WATERS INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS
ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...KEEPING BOATING CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS.

MON-THU...THE PSG OF SEVERAL DRY COLD FRONTS THIS WEEK WL BRING
BREEZY CONDS WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS...ESP OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
THERE WILL BE SOME FETCH PROTECTION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CST DUE TO
PREVALENCE OF A WLY COMPONENT WIND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE PATTERN CHANGE AND SUPPLY OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR OVER
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE LIMITED
IN SCOPE DUE TO COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. RH VALUES IN THE LWR
TO MID 30S ARE FORECAST FOR PART OF THE AREA MON AND TUE...WITH
TUE A LITTLE DRIER OVER N CENTRAL FL AND RH BRIEFLY MAKING IT INTO
THE U20S INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  54  38  66  43 /  20   0  10  20
MCO  57  39  66  46 /  10   0  10  20
MLB  58  38  64  44 /  10   0  10  20
VRB  59  38  65  48 /  10   0  10  20
LEE  56  40  67  45 /  10   0  10  20
SFB  57  39  66  44 /  10   0  10  20
ORL  56  42  65  49 /  10   0  10  20
FPR  59  39  64  48 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KTAE 070827
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
This morning, the low off the Florida coast will continue to move
out to sea as high pressure moves into the region. By mid morning
clouds will move out of the region. Today expect sunny skies and
POPs near zero. Highs will be in the mid to upper 50s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Big changes are expected over the short term period as a large
upper low drops out of Canada and into the Ohio River Valley on
Monday. At the surface, a dry cold front will surge across the
region Monday afternoon. Breezy northwest winds will bring in a
dry and quite chilly airmass. High temperatures by Tuesday will
drop into the mid 40s across the northern zones and near 50 in
North Florida. Overnight lows will generally be in the upper 20s
to near 30. 10 to 15 mph winds during the morning hours on Tuesday
will result in wind chills as cold as 20 degrees.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The chilly weather will continue into the first half of the long
term period. The upper low will begin to lift out into the
northeast by Wednesday. At the surface, high pressure will build
over the region, which will put an end to the breezy conditions.
It`s during this time on Thursday and Friday mornings where low
temperatures could drop down into the mid 20s. However, given the
lack of consensus between the GFS/Euro regarding the placement of
the surface high pressure area, will keep the low temperature
forecast during this period in the upper 20s to near 30.

By Friday and beyond, the GFS has trended toward the Euro this
cycle suggesting that another cold front will move through the
region by Friday night into Saturday as the overall pattern across
the Eastern CONUS amplifies again. Obviously, there`s still some
spread between the GFS/Euro solutions out this far, but the
forecast was trended more toward the Euro solution. This results
in a temperature forecast Friday-Sunday that`s a little below
climatology for mid February.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Monday] There is mainly mid to high clouds over the
region tonight. The exception is VLD which has MVFR CIGS currently.
All clouds will move out of the region by mid to late morning and
clear skies are expected for the rest of the TAF cycle.
Northwesterly winds will be a little bit gusty today at times.

&&

.Marine...
As an area of low pressure strengthens off the Florida East Coast,
winds over the Eastern Gulf will increase to advisory levels
through this afternoon before diminishing tonight. On Monday
afternoon, a dry cold front will move quickly across the marine
area. Winds behind this cold front will increase significantly,
possibly to gale force. A lengthy stretch of gale force winds is
possible through Wednesday, before high pressure builds over the
marine area on Thursday, resulting in lighter winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...
The next several days will be very dry. Red Flag Warning criteria
will not be met today since fuel moisture is still high and most
locations will be just above 30 percent relative humidity.

&&

.Hydrology...
No significant rainfall is expected over the next seven days,
which will allow river levels across much of South Georgia and
Alabama to drop below action levels. However, down into North
Florida, flooding will continue for some time on the
Choctawhatchee and Apalachicola Rivers. The Withlacoochee River
will also be on the rise through the coming week.

On the Choctawhatchee, Caryville will crest this morning around 14
feet in minor flood stage. Further downstream at Bruce, moderate
flooding is expected to continue, with the river cresting near
15.5 feet on Tuesday afternoon.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola Rivers, releases from Walter F
George have been cut back considerably. Inflows from the Flint
into Lake Seminole will peak in the next 36 hours around 30kfcs.
As a result, it appears as though Woodruff will only be releasing
85kcfs just a little longer and decrease to around 70kcfs this
afternoon. Obviously, Blountstown will remain in flood for some
time, but the crest for this event around 21 feet will occur later
this morning, with the river dropping slowly throughout the
remainder of the week.

Over on the Withlacoochee/Little River system, Valdosta is
cresting this morning. Increased flows down the Little River will
approach peak levels late tonight into Monday. The combined flow
from these two sources will result in rises at the US-84 crossing
approaching 107.5 feet on Tuesday night, just below moderate flood
stage. Should this crest verify, the next downstream point near
Pinetta could approach flood stage late next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  36  62  34  50 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   57  47  59  38  49 /   0   0  10  10   0
Dothan        57  37  57  31  46 /   0   0  10   0   0
Albany        57  35  58  31  46 /   0   0  20   0   0
Valdosta      56  35  61  33  49 /   0   0  20  10   0
Cross City    57  37  64  36  52 /   0   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  58  44  62  39  51 /   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening FOR
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

     Gale Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening FOR
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL
     out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL
     from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
     20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KJAX 070726
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NE
FL/SE GA WITH SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED OFF THE E CENTRAL FL COAST AND
MOVING NE. UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING
WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SE GA MAINLY
BETWEEN 11Z-15Z WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR WILL BRIEFLY
EXIST. NO ACCUMULATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING
OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES THERE. WITH BREEZY NW
WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25MPH GUSTING TO 30-35
MPH AT TIMES...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AREA-WIDE. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE EVENING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN...OTHERWISE EXPECT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
BEGIN WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15G20-25 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ALONG
THE COAST/NE FL AND THIS WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE 25-30
DEG RANGE BY MORNING INLAND AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND UNDER ONLY PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SE GA AND LOWER
50S NE FL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25G30-35
MPH WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S/LOWER 40S MUCH OF THE DAY.

TUE NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF SUPPRESSING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN GOMEX/CNTRL FLORIDA AND THIS
WILL KEEP W/NW WINDS ELEVATED IN THE 5-10 MPH NE FL/10-15 MPH SE GA.
EVEN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WILL NOT SUPPORT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDS AND STILL EXPECT ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE OVER ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS...WHILE THE WIND WILL DRIVE THE WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 ACROSS SE GA WHERE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS NE FL JUST
ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODELS NOW SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ALBEIT A DRY ONE THIS TIME WITH INCREASING W/NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO
15-25G30-35MPH AND MAX TEMPS ONLY AROUND 50 DEG SE GA AND MIDDLE 50S
NE FL. THIS WILL SET UP AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE SITUATION WED NIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 INLAND AND LOWER/MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE COAST. THE NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST IN THE 5-
10 MPH RANGE INLAND AND WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 ACRS SE GA AND NEAR 25 ACRS NE FL.

THURSDAY...LONG-RANGE MODELS DIVERGING AT THIS POINT WITH THE EXACT
LOCATION OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE SERN U.S. BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING WEAKER W/NW WINDS ON THURSDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S...AND LOWS THU NIGHT ARE DIVERGING AMONG THE MODELS WITH
SOME SUPPORTING LIGHT FREEZE AND AREAS OF FROST AND OTHERS WITH LOWS
JUST IN THE 30S WITH JUST FROST. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT BUT TRENDS MAY SUPPORT THIRD STRAIGHT NIGHT OF LIGHT
FREEZE CONDS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGHS STILL OVER THE SERN U.S. REGION AND EXPECT WARM-UP
BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAKER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT BUT WITH ANY
DYNAMICS LACKING HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SILENT 10% RANGE FOR
NOW.

SUNDAY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION WITH COOLER TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW HOLDING MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS WITH RAIN WILL CONTINUE TILL AROUND 12Z
WHEN RAIN WILL THEN BE ENDING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT
TO MVFR IN 11Z-16Z TIME FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 16Z-19Z. NW WINDS WILL STAY STRONG
TODAY AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE CEASED NEAR THE COAST SO WILL
CANCEL GALE WARNING NEAR SHORE AND GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY DUE TO FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW WILL
PERSIST. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS STAY ELEVATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED DISPERSIONS WHILE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40%
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SATILLA AND ALTAMAHA RIVER BASINS WILL REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  36  61  34 /  10   0  20   0
SSI  53  37  60  38 /  60   0  20  20
JAX  54  36  64  37 /  30   0  20  20
SGJ  54  38  65  41 /  30   0  20  20
GNV  56  34  65  38 /  10   0  20  20
OCF  57  37  66  40 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 070726
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NE
FL/SE GA WITH SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED OFF THE E CENTRAL FL COAST AND
MOVING NE. UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING
WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SE GA MAINLY
BETWEEN 11Z-15Z WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR WILL BRIEFLY
EXIST. NO ACCUMULATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING
OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES THERE. WITH BREEZY NW
WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25MPH GUSTING TO 30-35
MPH AT TIMES...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AREA-WIDE. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE EVENING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN...OTHERWISE EXPECT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
BEGIN WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15G20-25 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ALONG
THE COAST/NE FL AND THIS WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE 25-30
DEG RANGE BY MORNING INLAND AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND UNDER ONLY PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SE GA AND LOWER
50S NE FL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25G30-35
MPH WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S/LOWER 40S MUCH OF THE DAY.

TUE NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF SUPPRESSING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN GOMEX/CNTRL FLORIDA AND THIS
WILL KEEP W/NW WINDS ELEVATED IN THE 5-10 MPH NE FL/10-15 MPH SE GA.
EVEN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WILL NOT SUPPORT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDS AND STILL EXPECT ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE OVER ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS...WHILE THE WIND WILL DRIVE THE WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 ACROSS SE GA WHERE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS NE FL JUST
ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODELS NOW SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ALBEIT A DRY ONE THIS TIME WITH INCREASING W/NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO
15-25G30-35MPH AND MAX TEMPS ONLY AROUND 50 DEG SE GA AND MIDDLE 50S
NE FL. THIS WILL SET UP AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE SITUATION WED NIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 INLAND AND LOWER/MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE COAST. THE NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST IN THE 5-
10 MPH RANGE INLAND AND WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 ACRS SE GA AND NEAR 25 ACRS NE FL.

THURSDAY...LONG-RANGE MODELS DIVERGING AT THIS POINT WITH THE EXACT
LOCATION OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE SERN U.S. BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING WEAKER W/NW WINDS ON THURSDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S...AND LOWS THU NIGHT ARE DIVERGING AMONG THE MODELS WITH
SOME SUPPORTING LIGHT FREEZE AND AREAS OF FROST AND OTHERS WITH LOWS
JUST IN THE 30S WITH JUST FROST. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT BUT TRENDS MAY SUPPORT THIRD STRAIGHT NIGHT OF LIGHT
FREEZE CONDS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGHS STILL OVER THE SERN U.S. REGION AND EXPECT WARM-UP
BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAKER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT BUT WITH ANY
DYNAMICS LACKING HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SILENT 10% RANGE FOR
NOW.

SUNDAY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION WITH COOLER TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW HOLDING MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS WITH RAIN WILL CONTINUE TILL AROUND 12Z
WHEN RAIN WILL THEN BE ENDING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT
TO MVFR IN 11Z-16Z TIME FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 16Z-19Z. NW WINDS WILL STAY STRONG
TODAY AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE CEASED NEAR THE COAST SO WILL
CANCEL GALE WARNING NEAR SHORE AND GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY DUE TO FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW WILL
PERSIST. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS STAY ELEVATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED DISPERSIONS WHILE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40%
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SATILLA AND ALTAMAHA RIVER BASINS WILL REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  36  61  34 /  10   0  20   0
SSI  53  37  60  38 /  60   0  20  20
JAX  54  36  64  37 /  30   0  20  20
SGJ  54  38  65  41 /  30   0  20  20
GNV  56  34  65  38 /  10   0  20  20
OCF  57  37  66  40 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 070726
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NE
FL/SE GA WITH SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED OFF THE E CENTRAL FL COAST AND
MOVING NE. UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING
WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SE GA MAINLY
BETWEEN 11Z-15Z WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR WILL BRIEFLY
EXIST. NO ACCUMULATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING
OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES THERE. WITH BREEZY NW
WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25MPH GUSTING TO 30-35
MPH AT TIMES...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AREA-WIDE. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE EVENING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN...OTHERWISE EXPECT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
BEGIN WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15G20-25 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ALONG
THE COAST/NE FL AND THIS WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE 25-30
DEG RANGE BY MORNING INLAND AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND UNDER ONLY PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SE GA AND LOWER
50S NE FL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25G30-35
MPH WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S/LOWER 40S MUCH OF THE DAY.

TUE NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF SUPPRESSING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN GOMEX/CNTRL FLORIDA AND THIS
WILL KEEP W/NW WINDS ELEVATED IN THE 5-10 MPH NE FL/10-15 MPH SE GA.
EVEN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WILL NOT SUPPORT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDS AND STILL EXPECT ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE OVER ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS...WHILE THE WIND WILL DRIVE THE WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 ACROSS SE GA WHERE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS NE FL JUST
ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODELS NOW SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ALBEIT A DRY ONE THIS TIME WITH INCREASING W/NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO
15-25G30-35MPH AND MAX TEMPS ONLY AROUND 50 DEG SE GA AND MIDDLE 50S
NE FL. THIS WILL SET UP AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE SITUATION WED NIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 INLAND AND LOWER/MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE COAST. THE NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST IN THE 5-
10 MPH RANGE INLAND AND WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 ACRS SE GA AND NEAR 25 ACRS NE FL.

THURSDAY...LONG-RANGE MODELS DIVERGING AT THIS POINT WITH THE EXACT
LOCATION OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE SERN U.S. BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING WEAKER W/NW WINDS ON THURSDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S...AND LOWS THU NIGHT ARE DIVERGING AMONG THE MODELS WITH
SOME SUPPORTING LIGHT FREEZE AND AREAS OF FROST AND OTHERS WITH LOWS
JUST IN THE 30S WITH JUST FROST. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT BUT TRENDS MAY SUPPORT THIRD STRAIGHT NIGHT OF LIGHT
FREEZE CONDS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGHS STILL OVER THE SERN U.S. REGION AND EXPECT WARM-UP
BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAKER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT BUT WITH ANY
DYNAMICS LACKING HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SILENT 10% RANGE FOR
NOW.

SUNDAY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION WITH COOLER TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW HOLDING MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS WITH RAIN WILL CONTINUE TILL AROUND 12Z
WHEN RAIN WILL THEN BE ENDING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT
TO MVFR IN 11Z-16Z TIME FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 16Z-19Z. NW WINDS WILL STAY STRONG
TODAY AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE CEASED NEAR THE COAST SO WILL
CANCEL GALE WARNING NEAR SHORE AND GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY DUE TO FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW WILL
PERSIST. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS STAY ELEVATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED DISPERSIONS WHILE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40%
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SATILLA AND ALTAMAHA RIVER BASINS WILL REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  36  61  34 /  10   0  20   0
SSI  53  37  60  38 /  60   0  20  20
JAX  54  36  64  37 /  30   0  20  20
SGJ  54  38  65  41 /  30   0  20  20
GNV  56  34  65  38 /  10   0  20  20
OCF  57  37  66  40 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 070726
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NE
FL/SE GA WITH SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED OFF THE E CENTRAL FL COAST AND
MOVING NE. UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING
WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SE GA MAINLY
BETWEEN 11Z-15Z WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR WILL BRIEFLY
EXIST. NO ACCUMULATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING
OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES THERE. WITH BREEZY NW
WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25MPH GUSTING TO 30-35
MPH AT TIMES...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AREA-WIDE. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE EVENING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN...OTHERWISE EXPECT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
BEGIN WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15G20-25 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ALONG
THE COAST/NE FL AND THIS WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE 25-30
DEG RANGE BY MORNING INLAND AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND UNDER ONLY PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SE GA AND LOWER
50S NE FL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25G30-35
MPH WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S/LOWER 40S MUCH OF THE DAY.

TUE NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF SUPPRESSING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN GOMEX/CNTRL FLORIDA AND THIS
WILL KEEP W/NW WINDS ELEVATED IN THE 5-10 MPH NE FL/10-15 MPH SE GA.
EVEN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WILL NOT SUPPORT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDS AND STILL EXPECT ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE OVER ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS...WHILE THE WIND WILL DRIVE THE WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 ACROSS SE GA WHERE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS NE FL JUST
ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODELS NOW SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ALBEIT A DRY ONE THIS TIME WITH INCREASING W/NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO
15-25G30-35MPH AND MAX TEMPS ONLY AROUND 50 DEG SE GA AND MIDDLE 50S
NE FL. THIS WILL SET UP AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE SITUATION WED NIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 INLAND AND LOWER/MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE COAST. THE NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST IN THE 5-
10 MPH RANGE INLAND AND WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 ACRS SE GA AND NEAR 25 ACRS NE FL.

THURSDAY...LONG-RANGE MODELS DIVERGING AT THIS POINT WITH THE EXACT
LOCATION OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE SERN U.S. BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING WEAKER W/NW WINDS ON THURSDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S...AND LOWS THU NIGHT ARE DIVERGING AMONG THE MODELS WITH
SOME SUPPORTING LIGHT FREEZE AND AREAS OF FROST AND OTHERS WITH LOWS
JUST IN THE 30S WITH JUST FROST. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT BUT TRENDS MAY SUPPORT THIRD STRAIGHT NIGHT OF LIGHT
FREEZE CONDS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGHS STILL OVER THE SERN U.S. REGION AND EXPECT WARM-UP
BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAKER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT BUT WITH ANY
DYNAMICS LACKING HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SILENT 10% RANGE FOR
NOW.

SUNDAY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION WITH COOLER TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW HOLDING MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS WITH RAIN WILL CONTINUE TILL AROUND 12Z
WHEN RAIN WILL THEN BE ENDING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT
TO MVFR IN 11Z-16Z TIME FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 16Z-19Z. NW WINDS WILL STAY STRONG
TODAY AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE CEASED NEAR THE COAST SO WILL
CANCEL GALE WARNING NEAR SHORE AND GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY DUE TO FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW WILL
PERSIST. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS STAY ELEVATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED DISPERSIONS WHILE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40%
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SATILLA AND ALTAMAHA RIVER BASINS WILL REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  36  61  34 /  10   0  20   0
SSI  53  37  60  38 /  60   0  20  20
JAX  54  36  64  37 /  30   0  20  20
SGJ  54  38  65  41 /  30   0  20  20
GNV  56  34  65  38 /  10   0  20  20
OCF  57  37  66  40 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 070726
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
225 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NE
FL/SE GA WITH SURFACE LOW NOW LOCATED OFF THE E CENTRAL FL COAST AND
MOVING NE. UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM THE WEST
LATE THIS MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLY MIXING
WITH A FEW SNOW FLAKES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SE GA MAINLY
BETWEEN 11Z-15Z WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLDER AIR WILL BRIEFLY
EXIST. NO ACCUMULATIONS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BOTTOMING
OUT ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES THERE. WITH BREEZY NW
WINDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION TODAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH
THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT/...

MONDAY...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAIN IMPACT WILL
BE THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25MPH GUSTING TO 30-35
MPH AT TIMES...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER
AREA-WIDE. TEMPS WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY IN THE EVENING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN...OTHERWISE EXPECT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO
BEGIN WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15G20-25 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
TEMPS FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S INLAND AND UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ALONG
THE COAST/NE FL AND THIS WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE 25-30
DEG RANGE BY MORNING INLAND AND LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND UNDER ONLY PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 40S SE GA AND LOWER
50S NE FL AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25G30-35
MPH WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S/LOWER 40S MUCH OF THE DAY.

TUE NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF SUPPRESSING SFC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE ERN GOMEX/CNTRL FLORIDA AND THIS
WILL KEEP W/NW WINDS ELEVATED IN THE 5-10 MPH NE FL/10-15 MPH SE GA.
EVEN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WILL NOT SUPPORT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDS AND STILL EXPECT ONLY A LIGHT FREEZE OVER ALL
INLAND LOCATIONS...WHILE THE WIND WILL DRIVE THE WIND CHILL VALUES
DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 ACROSS SE GA WHERE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS NE FL JUST
ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY/...

WEDNESDAY...MODELS NOW SUPPORTING YET ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
ALBEIT A DRY ONE THIS TIME WITH INCREASING W/NW WINDS ONCE AGAIN TO
15-25G30-35MPH AND MAX TEMPS ONLY AROUND 50 DEG SE GA AND MIDDLE 50S
NE FL. THIS WILL SET UP AN ADVECTIVE FREEZE SITUATION WED NIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 INLAND AND LOWER/MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE COAST. THE NW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT LEAST IN THE 5-
10 MPH RANGE INLAND AND WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS
AROUND 20 ACRS SE GA AND NEAR 25 ACRS NE FL.

THURSDAY...LONG-RANGE MODELS DIVERGING AT THIS POINT WITH THE EXACT
LOCATION OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE SERN U.S. BUT OVERALL
EXPECTING WEAKER W/NW WINDS ON THURSDAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S...AND LOWS THU NIGHT ARE DIVERGING AMONG THE MODELS WITH
SOME SUPPORTING LIGHT FREEZE AND AREAS OF FROST AND OTHERS WITH LOWS
JUST IN THE 30S WITH JUST FROST. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT BUT TRENDS MAY SUPPORT THIRD STRAIGHT NIGHT OF LIGHT
FREEZE CONDS IN LATER FORECASTS.

FRIDAY...HIGHS STILL OVER THE SERN U.S. REGION AND EXPECT WARM-UP
BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

SATURDAY...MODELS SUGGESTING A WEAKER COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
FROM THE NORTH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 60S.
THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FRONT BUT WITH ANY
DYNAMICS LACKING HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE SILENT 10% RANGE FOR
NOW.

SUNDAY...INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE
REGION WITH COOLER TEMPS AND NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW HOLDING MAX TEMPS
INTO THE 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS. MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CEILINGS WITH RAIN WILL CONTINUE TILL AROUND 12Z
WHEN RAIN WILL THEN BE ENDING FROM THE WEST. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT
TO MVFR IN 11Z-16Z TIME FRAME. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST
WITH VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING 16Z-19Z. NW WINDS WILL STAY STRONG
TODAY AT 15G25KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GALE FORCE GUSTS HAVE CEASED NEAR THE COAST SO WILL
CANCEL GALE WARNING NEAR SHORE AND GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE TODAY DUE TO FREQUENT GALE
FORCE GUSTS AS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND DEPARTING LOW WILL
PERSIST. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS OFFSHORE WINDS AND SEAS STAY ELEVATED WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WINDS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED DISPERSIONS WHILE MIN RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 30-40%
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SATILLA AND ALTAMAHA RIVER BASINS WILL REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  36  61  34 /  10   0  20   0
SSI  53  37  60  38 /  60   0  20  20
JAX  54  36  64  37 /  30   0  20  20
SGJ  54  38  65  41 /  30   0  20  20
GNV  56  34  65  38 /  10   0  20  20
OCF  57  37  66  40 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 070721
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
221 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHWEST AT
15 TO 20 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHWEST NEAR 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NO MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW THEIR
TYPICAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER MOISTURE
STARVED COLD FRONT MAY PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
ANTICIPATED PRESENCE OF THIS DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY
DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR
25 KNOTS THIS MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED
MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH 07/12Z...BEFORE THINNING AND
LIFTING OVER THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTERNATIONAL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH AROUND 15 KNOTS...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 12Z. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG CROSSWINDS...ESPECIALLY
IN GUSTS...BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1957...1.78 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY
RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON FEBRUARY 7TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 59 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  66 56 68 62 / 20 - - 20
MARATHON  66 53 68 61 / 20 - - 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 070537
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1237 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  41  66  50 /  20   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  44  68  54 /  20   0  10  10
MIAMI            65  44  68  55 /  20   0  10  10
NAPLES           62  44  66  59 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 070537
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1237 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  41  66  50 /  20   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  44  68  54 /  20   0  10  10
MIAMI            65  44  68  55 /  20   0  10  10
NAPLES           62  44  66  59 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
     FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KKEY 070359
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1059 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLOUDY SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTED ALL THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS AREA IS NOW EXITING THE UPPER KEYS AND ITS SURROUNDING
WATERS. THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IN KEY WEST AS OF 10 PM WAS OF 1.07
INCHES (SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFO). A COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE KEYS EARLIER THIS EVENING...BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH AND CONTINUE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE MID 60S. ADDITIONAL
PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE MARQUESAS
KEYS AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE KEYS OVERNIGHT.

.FORECAST...
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PICKING UP SPEED ACROSS
THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COLD FRONT MADE ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WHEN ZOOMING OUT AND ANALYZING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. FOR THE KEYS...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...AS LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGESTED THAT THE
MAIN RAINFALL EVENT HAS MOVED OUT OF OUR AREA...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
PERIOD OF QUICK SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE NECCESARY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURNED FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TONIGHT AND INCREASED TO NEAR
20 KNOTS...AS REPORTED BY ALL THE AVAILABLE MARINE STATIONS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND ON SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...SEAS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PEAKING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. NORTHWEST CROSSWINDS WINDS HAVE
INCREASED THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTH TO DATE IN KEY WEST...2.81 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...EXCEEDING THE NORMAL MONTHLY TOTAL
FOR RAINFALL IN FEBRUARY BY 1.32 INCHES. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO THE YEAR 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 070359
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1059 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES HAVE REMAINED CLOUDY SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN AN
EXTENSIVE AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTED ALL THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS AREA IS NOW EXITING THE UPPER KEYS AND ITS SURROUNDING
WATERS. THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IN KEY WEST AS OF 10 PM WAS OF 1.07
INCHES (SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE INFO). A COLD FRONT PUSHED
THROUGH THE KEYS EARLIER THIS EVENING...BRINGING NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15 TO 20 MPH AND CONTINUE ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN STEADY IN THE MID 60S. ADDITIONAL
PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE MARQUESAS
KEYS AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE KEYS OVERNIGHT.

.FORECAST...
WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PICKING UP SPEED ACROSS
THE KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COLD FRONT MADE ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE
AREA. WHEN ZOOMING OUT AND ANALYZING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES...IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW PRESSURE HAS STARTED TO
DEVELOP EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW WILL
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY. FOR THE KEYS...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WERE LOWERED FOR THE
REST OF TONIGHT...AS LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGESTED THAT THE
MAIN RAINFALL EVENT HAS MOVED OUT OF OUR AREA...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER
PERIOD OF QUICK SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE NECCESARY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TURNED FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY TONIGHT AND INCREASED TO NEAR
20 KNOTS...AS REPORTED BY ALL THE AVAILABLE MARINE STATIONS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS...AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
AND ON SUNDAY. AND WITH THAT...SEAS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT...PEAKING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. NORTHWEST CROSSWINDS WINDS HAVE
INCREASED THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MONTH TO DATE IN KEY WEST...2.81 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN AT THE
KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...EXCEEDING THE NORMAL MONTHLY TOTAL
FOR RAINFALL IN FEBRUARY BY 1.32 INCHES. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO THE YEAR 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 070223
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
923 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
02Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY POTENT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY MIGRATING TOWARD THE REGION
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LOOKED
IMPRESSIVE FOR SOME TIME IN THE FORECAST MODELS...BUT ITS ABILITY
TO TRANSITION THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR HEADS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
SURPRISED THIS FORECASTER. THE KTBW 00Z SOUNDING FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT HAD A PW VALUE OF 0.15" (NEAR RECORD LOW FOR THE
DATE)...WITH JUST ABOUT AS DRY A TROP COLUMN AS WE FIND HERE IN
FLORIDA. THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTED SHOWERS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT JUST DID NOT THINK
WE WOULD SEE SUCH A DRAMATIC MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN TO GIVE US
THE RAINFALL EVENT WE SAW. THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CERTAINLY HUMBLE
YOU SOMETIMES...AND TODAY WAS ONE OF THOSE DAYS.

MAIN SURGE OF QG FORCING AND BEST DIFFLUENCE WITH THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING TO OUR EAST IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE MOST
CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXIT TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL EXIT SOON...THE AMOUNT OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE SUGGESTS WE KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. HARD TO BELIEVE...BUT WE ARE SEEING A FEW TICKS OF
LIGHTNING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR BACK AS THE COASTAL WATER OFF
LOUISIANA.

AS THE ENERGY ALOFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER THE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT OF THE GULF STREAM...SEEING THE FIRST SIGNS OF
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL ORGANIZE IN A BIG HURRY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
UPWARD MOTIONS TO AID THIS LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY FORCED BY A NEAR TEXTBOOK COUPLING OF THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST ON SUNDAY.

FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO
DRAW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR REGION WITH TIME...BUT WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW HARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OVER LAND AS WELL...BUT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AT THE COAST WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF THE WATER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY BY DAWN...WITH THE STEADY NW
WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. CERTAINLY LOOKING AT JACKET
WEATHER FOR MOST OF US IN THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE SKIES
QUICKLY BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. THESE COASTAL AREAS MAY HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER STRATOCU
UNTIL MIDDAY AS CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF
AND STRONG VORTICITY ALOFT COMBINE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS MIGRATING
ONSHORE. NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF THESE
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AS WELL...AND HAVE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE FORECAST. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON....SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR ALL
AREAS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND ANTICIPATE THESE RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STEADIEST RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 08Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSRQ. LATE TONIGHT...HAVE GONE
OPTIMISTIC AND REMOVED IFR MENTION IN FAVOR OF PREVAILING MVFR
THROUGH DAWN. AFTER SUNRISE...SHOULD SEE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AND
HAVE REMOVED ALL RESTRICTIONS BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING
TO ADVISORY LEVELS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY
SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS DECREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SURGE OF WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVEL ARRIVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  57  45  65 /  60   0   0  10
FMY  50  61  44  66 / 100  10   0  10
GIF  45  58  41  67 / 100  10   0  10
SRQ  49  58  45  67 /  70  10   0  10
BKV  42  56  36  66 /  50   0   0  20
SPG  49  57  49  66 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 070223
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
923 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
02Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY POTENT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY MIGRATING TOWARD THE REGION
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LOOKED
IMPRESSIVE FOR SOME TIME IN THE FORECAST MODELS...BUT ITS ABILITY
TO TRANSITION THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR HEADS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
SURPRISED THIS FORECASTER. THE KTBW 00Z SOUNDING FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT HAD A PW VALUE OF 0.15" (NEAR RECORD LOW FOR THE
DATE)...WITH JUST ABOUT AS DRY A TROP COLUMN AS WE FIND HERE IN
FLORIDA. THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTED SHOWERS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT JUST DID NOT THINK
WE WOULD SEE SUCH A DRAMATIC MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN TO GIVE US
THE RAINFALL EVENT WE SAW. THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CERTAINLY HUMBLE
YOU SOMETIMES...AND TODAY WAS ONE OF THOSE DAYS.

MAIN SURGE OF QG FORCING AND BEST DIFFLUENCE WITH THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING TO OUR EAST IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE MOST
CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXIT TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL EXIT SOON...THE AMOUNT OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE SUGGESTS WE KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. HARD TO BELIEVE...BUT WE ARE SEEING A FEW TICKS OF
LIGHTNING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR BACK AS THE COASTAL WATER OFF
LOUISIANA.

AS THE ENERGY ALOFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER THE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT OF THE GULF STREAM...SEEING THE FIRST SIGNS OF
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL ORGANIZE IN A BIG HURRY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
UPWARD MOTIONS TO AID THIS LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY FORCED BY A NEAR TEXTBOOK COUPLING OF THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST ON SUNDAY.

FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO
DRAW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR REGION WITH TIME...BUT WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW HARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OVER LAND AS WELL...BUT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AT THE COAST WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF THE WATER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY BY DAWN...WITH THE STEADY NW
WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. CERTAINLY LOOKING AT JACKET
WEATHER FOR MOST OF US IN THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE SKIES
QUICKLY BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. THESE COASTAL AREAS MAY HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER STRATOCU
UNTIL MIDDAY AS CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF
AND STRONG VORTICITY ALOFT COMBINE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS MIGRATING
ONSHORE. NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF THESE
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AS WELL...AND HAVE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE FORECAST. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON....SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR ALL
AREAS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND ANTICIPATE THESE RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STEADIEST RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 08Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSRQ. LATE TONIGHT...HAVE GONE
OPTIMISTIC AND REMOVED IFR MENTION IN FAVOR OF PREVAILING MVFR
THROUGH DAWN. AFTER SUNRISE...SHOULD SEE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AND
HAVE REMOVED ALL RESTRICTIONS BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING
TO ADVISORY LEVELS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY
SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS DECREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SURGE OF WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVEL ARRIVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  57  45  65 /  60   0   0  10
FMY  50  61  44  66 / 100  10   0  10
GIF  45  58  41  67 / 100  10   0  10
SRQ  49  58  45  67 /  70  10   0  10
BKV  42  56  36  66 /  50   0   0  20
SPG  49  57  49  66 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 070223
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
923 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
02Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY POTENT UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY MIGRATING TOWARD THE REGION
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS LOOKED
IMPRESSIVE FOR SOME TIME IN THE FORECAST MODELS...BUT ITS ABILITY
TO TRANSITION THE ATMOSPHERE OVER OUR HEADS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
SURPRISED THIS FORECASTER. THE KTBW 00Z SOUNDING FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT HAD A PW VALUE OF 0.15" (NEAR RECORD LOW FOR THE
DATE)...WITH JUST ABOUT AS DRY A TROP COLUMN AS WE FIND HERE IN
FLORIDA. THE FORECAST HIGHLIGHTED SHOWERS FOR TODAY GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC FORCING...BUT JUST DID NOT THINK
WE WOULD SEE SUCH A DRAMATIC MOISTENING OF THE COLUMN TO GIVE US
THE RAINFALL EVENT WE SAW. THE ATMOSPHERE CAN CERTAINLY HUMBLE
YOU SOMETIMES...AND TODAY WAS ONE OF THOSE DAYS.

MAIN SURGE OF QG FORCING AND BEST DIFFLUENCE WITH THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE PASSING TO OUR EAST IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE THE MOST
CONCENTRATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXIT TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
EVEN THOUGH THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL EXIT SOON...THE AMOUNT OF
VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT AND LINGERING MOISTURE SUGGESTS WE KEEP
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WELL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. HARD TO BELIEVE...BUT WE ARE SEEING A FEW TICKS OF
LIGHTNING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR BACK AS THE COASTAL WATER OFF
LOUISIANA.

AS THE ENERGY ALOFT BEGINS TO ARRIVE OVER THE BAROCLINIC
ENVIRONMENT OF THE GULF STREAM...SEEING THE FIRST SIGNS OF
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE SE FLORIDA COAST THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
WILL ORGANIZE IN A BIG HURRY LATER TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AS IT MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
UPWARD MOTIONS TO AID THIS LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE AT LEAST
PARTIALLY FORCED BY A NEAR TEXTBOOK COUPLING OF THE UPPER JET
STRUCTURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST ON SUNDAY.

FOR OUR FORECAST AREA...THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LOW WILL HELP TO
DRAW THE DEEPER MOISTURE AWAY FROM OUR REGION WITH TIME...BUT WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN CONDITIONS BECOMING HAZARDOUS ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW HARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY. THESE WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OVER LAND AS WELL...BUT WILL BE MAXIMIZED AT THE COAST WITH
THE NW FLOW OFF THE WATER.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER CHILLY BY DAWN...WITH THE STEADY NW
WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. CERTAINLY LOOKING AT JACKET
WEATHER FOR MOST OF US IN THE MORNING. SHOULD SEE THE SKIES
QUICKLY BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY DURING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE COASTAL AREAS FROM PINELLAS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD. THESE COASTAL AREAS MAY HOLD ONTO SOME LOWER STRATOCU
UNTIL MIDDAY AS CAA OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF
AND STRONG VORTICITY ALOFT COMBINE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS MIGRATING
ONSHORE. NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY FALL OUT OF THESE
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING AS WELL...AND HAVE ADDED SPRINKLES TO
THE FORECAST. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON....SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FOR ALL
AREAS...WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND ANTICIPATE THESE RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE STEADIEST RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH 08Z...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF KSRQ. LATE TONIGHT...HAVE GONE
OPTIMISTIC AND REMOVED IFR MENTION IN FAVOR OF PREVAILING MVFR
THROUGH DAWN. AFTER SUNRISE...SHOULD SEE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT AND
HAVE REMOVED ALL RESTRICTIONS BY LATE MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERIOD OF ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS IS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DURING
SUNDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...WITH WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING
TO ADVISORY LEVELS. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY BEFORE BRIEFLY
SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THIS DECREASE IN WINDS
AND SEAS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE NEXT SURGE OF WINDS TO ADVISORY
LEVEL ARRIVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  57  45  65 /  60   0   0  10
FMY  50  61  44  66 / 100  10   0  10
GIF  45  58  41  67 / 100  10   0  10
SRQ  49  58  45  67 /  70  10   0  10
BKV  42  56  36  66 /  50   0   0  20
SPG  49  57  49  66 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA



000
FXUS62 KJAX 070222
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLC
SWWD TO THE SE CONUS GENERATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN FL AND THE WRN ATLC. A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
LOW PRES SYSTEM ARE SWINGING ESE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVER SRN MS
AND NW GA AT 02Z. ONE SHIELD OF RAIN IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND SHOULD LIFT OUT LATER TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF
RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW. THIS SECONDARY AREA IS NOW NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF LOW PRES AROUND 1016MB IS
LOCATED OFF THE E COAST SOME 100-120 NM E OF MAYPORT MOVING NEWD.
ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE FL E COAST WILL MERGE WITH THIS ONE ON SUNDAY
WHILE LIFTING NEWD AND DEEPENING OFF THE E COAST.

MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW OVER OUR NRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS
STRONG LIFT OCCURS NW OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
SFC TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S AS THIS OCCURS THOUGH SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS POSSIBLE THOUGH NOT APPEARING TO BE A BIG
FACTOR. LATEST SOUNDINGS AND SREF GUIDANCE SEEM TO INDICATE A
SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITY OF SNOW/SNOW FLURRIES THAN PRIOR
FCSTS...BUT IS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF THIS
IN THE FCST AND GRIDS ATTM. FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND TWEAKED TEMPS TONIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATE LOWS IN MID TO
UPPER 30S IN SE GA AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN NE FL. PINCHED
PRES ALSO RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OVER LAND (MAINLY
COASTAL NE FL) SO BUMPED WINDS UP...BUT APPEARS TO STAY JUST BELOW
WIND ADVY CONDITIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR IN LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND LOW CIGS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS NLY 10-15G23KT
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NWLY AFTER 14Z SUNDAY NEAR 15G25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...BASED ON GALE FORCE WINDS AT THE COAST AND THE PINCHED
PRES GRADIENT NEEDED TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL AREAS. LATEST READING AT 41008 INDICATED NNE 25G31KT WITH
SEAS OF 7 FT AND SAUF1 INDICATED SUSTAINED OF 30G34KT AT 9 PM.
GALE WARNING FOR NEARSHORE WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 4 PM NEARSHORE
AND CONTINUES OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  55  36  59 /  70  10   0  20
SSI  41  52  39  60 / 100  50   0  20
JAX  41  54  37  64 /  90  30   0  10
SGJ  44  54  40  64 /  90  30   0  10
GNV  40  56  36  64 /  60  10   0  20
OCF  41  56  36  64 /  50  10   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 070222
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLC
SWWD TO THE SE CONUS GENERATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN FL AND THE WRN ATLC. A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
LOW PRES SYSTEM ARE SWINGING ESE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVER SRN MS
AND NW GA AT 02Z. ONE SHIELD OF RAIN IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND SHOULD LIFT OUT LATER TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF
RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW. THIS SECONDARY AREA IS NOW NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF LOW PRES AROUND 1016MB IS
LOCATED OFF THE E COAST SOME 100-120 NM E OF MAYPORT MOVING NEWD.
ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE FL E COAST WILL MERGE WITH THIS ONE ON SUNDAY
WHILE LIFTING NEWD AND DEEPENING OFF THE E COAST.

MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW OVER OUR NRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS
STRONG LIFT OCCURS NW OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
SFC TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S AS THIS OCCURS THOUGH SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS POSSIBLE THOUGH NOT APPEARING TO BE A BIG
FACTOR. LATEST SOUNDINGS AND SREF GUIDANCE SEEM TO INDICATE A
SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITY OF SNOW/SNOW FLURRIES THAN PRIOR
FCSTS...BUT IS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF THIS
IN THE FCST AND GRIDS ATTM. FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND TWEAKED TEMPS TONIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATE LOWS IN MID TO
UPPER 30S IN SE GA AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN NE FL. PINCHED
PRES ALSO RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OVER LAND (MAINLY
COASTAL NE FL) SO BUMPED WINDS UP...BUT APPEARS TO STAY JUST BELOW
WIND ADVY CONDITIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR IN LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND LOW CIGS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS NLY 10-15G23KT
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NWLY AFTER 14Z SUNDAY NEAR 15G25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...BASED ON GALE FORCE WINDS AT THE COAST AND THE PINCHED
PRES GRADIENT NEEDED TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL AREAS. LATEST READING AT 41008 INDICATED NNE 25G31KT WITH
SEAS OF 7 FT AND SAUF1 INDICATED SUSTAINED OF 30G34KT AT 9 PM.
GALE WARNING FOR NEARSHORE WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 4 PM NEARSHORE
AND CONTINUES OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  55  36  59 /  70  10   0  20
SSI  41  52  39  60 / 100  50   0  20
JAX  41  54  37  64 /  90  30   0  10
SGJ  44  54  40  64 /  90  30   0  10
GNV  40  56  36  64 /  60  10   0  20
OCF  41  56  36  64 /  50  10   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 070222
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MID ATLC
SWWD TO THE SE CONUS GENERATING STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN FL AND THE WRN ATLC. A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
LOW PRES SYSTEM ARE SWINGING ESE THROUGH THE TROUGH OVER SRN MS
AND NW GA AT 02Z. ONE SHIELD OF RAIN IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND SHOULD LIFT OUT LATER TONIGHT WHILE ANOTHER BATCH OF
RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE SW. THIS SECONDARY AREA IS NOW NOTED OVER
THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE. AN AREA OF LOW PRES AROUND 1016MB IS
LOCATED OFF THE E COAST SOME 100-120 NM E OF MAYPORT MOVING NEWD.
ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE FL E COAST WILL MERGE WITH THIS ONE ON SUNDAY
WHILE LIFTING NEWD AND DEEPENING OFF THE E COAST.

MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW OVER OUR NRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT AS
STRONG LIFT OCCURS NW OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST.
SFC TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S AS THIS OCCURS THOUGH SOME
EVAPORATIVE COOLING IS POSSIBLE THOUGH NOT APPEARING TO BE A BIG
FACTOR. LATEST SOUNDINGS AND SREF GUIDANCE SEEM TO INDICATE A
SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITY OF SNOW/SNOW FLURRIES THAN PRIOR
FCSTS...BUT IS STILL POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION OF THIS
IN THE FCST AND GRIDS ATTM. FOR THE UPDATE...INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND TWEAKED TEMPS TONIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATE LOWS IN MID TO
UPPER 30S IN SE GA AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S IN NE FL. PINCHED
PRES ALSO RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS OVER LAND (MAINLY
COASTAL NE FL) SO BUMPED WINDS UP...BUT APPEARS TO STAY JUST BELOW
WIND ADVY CONDITIONS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING IFR IN LIGHT RAIN...FOG AND LOW CIGS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS NLY 10-15G23KT
TONIGHT...BECOMING MORE NWLY AFTER 14Z SUNDAY NEAR 15G25-30KT.

&&

.MARINE...BASED ON GALE FORCE WINDS AT THE COAST AND THE PINCHED
PRES GRADIENT NEEDED TO RAISE A GALE WARNING FOR THE NEARSHORE
COASTAL AREAS. LATEST READING AT 41008 INDICATED NNE 25G31KT WITH
SEAS OF 7 FT AND SAUF1 INDICATED SUSTAINED OF 30G34KT AT 9 PM.
GALE WARNING FOR NEARSHORE WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 4 PM NEARSHORE
AND CONTINUES OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  55  36  59 /  70  10   0  20
SSI  41  52  39  60 / 100  50   0  20
JAX  41  54  37  64 /  90  30   0  10
SGJ  44  54  40  64 /  90  30   0  10
GNV  40  56  36  64 /  60  10   0  20
OCF  41  56  36  64 /  50  10   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KMLB 070159
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
859 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...RAIN SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THEN WINDY/COLDER SUNDAY...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...
NOT PLANNING TO MAKE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  BROAD SURFACE LOW IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
REMNANT INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR THE TREASURE COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE STEADILY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AS
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN THAT WAS OCCURRING IN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN WILL LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES. EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND DEEPER MIXING ENSUES.

THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER HAZARD BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS.  CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...WITH AN ESPECIALLY
COLD POOL AT 500 MB (MINUS 15 TO 25 CELSIUS)...WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO AROUND 35 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
AND A STRAIGHT WIND ADVISORY MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 50 IN
THE SOUTH.  THESE LOWS MIGHT ACTUALLY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT NUMBERS EVEN THOUGH MOS/LAV
GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN OUR FORECAST LOWS.  HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  IT WILL FEEL
COLDER SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STRONG COLD ADVECTION...LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR MANY PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF INTERSTATE 4.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT LIGHTER RAIN SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE LONGER.  LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET AGL BUT
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.  DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS 35 KNOT GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR
THE 20 NAUTICAL MILE MARK FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR SHORE AND GALE
WARNING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SHARP




000
FXUS62 KMLB 070159
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
859 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...RAIN SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THEN WINDY/COLDER SUNDAY...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...
NOT PLANNING TO MAKE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  BROAD SURFACE LOW IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
REMNANT INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR THE TREASURE COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE STEADILY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AS
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN THAT WAS OCCURRING IN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN WILL LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES. EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND DEEPER MIXING ENSUES.

THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER HAZARD BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS.  CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...WITH AN ESPECIALLY
COLD POOL AT 500 MB (MINUS 15 TO 25 CELSIUS)...WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO AROUND 35 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
AND A STRAIGHT WIND ADVISORY MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 50 IN
THE SOUTH.  THESE LOWS MIGHT ACTUALLY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT NUMBERS EVEN THOUGH MOS/LAV
GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN OUR FORECAST LOWS.  HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  IT WILL FEEL
COLDER SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STRONG COLD ADVECTION...LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR MANY PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF INTERSTATE 4.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT LIGHTER RAIN SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE LONGER.  LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET AGL BUT
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.  DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS 35 KNOT GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR
THE 20 NAUTICAL MILE MARK FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR SHORE AND GALE
WARNING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SHARP



000
FXUS62 KMLB 070159
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
859 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...RAIN SHIFTING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THEN WINDY/COLDER SUNDAY...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...
NOT PLANNING TO MAKE AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  BROAD SURFACE LOW IS STARTING TO FORM ALONG THE
REMNANT INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH THAT WAS NEAR THE TREASURE COAST.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE STEADILY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND STRENGTHEN AS
VIGOROUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA SUNDAY MORNING.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN THAT WAS OCCURRING IN
WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THE
COAST BEFORE MIDNIGHT...BUT SOME WRAP AROUND RAIN WILL LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFIES. EXTENSIVE
LOW CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER WELL INTO SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AND DEEPER MIXING ENSUES.

THE MOST NOTABLE WEATHER HAZARD BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS.  CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON SUNDAY...WITH AN ESPECIALLY
COLD POOL AT 500 MB (MINUS 15 TO 25 CELSIUS)...WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO AROUND 35 MPH. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
AND A STRAIGHT WIND ADVISORY MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 50 IN
THE SOUTH.  THESE LOWS MIGHT ACTUALLY OCCUR AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT NUMBERS EVEN THOUGH MOS/LAV
GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER THAN OUR FORECAST LOWS.  HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA.  IT WILL FEEL
COLDER SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RATHER STRONG COLD ADVECTION...LACK
OF SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS. WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR MANY PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION...
LARGE AREA OF RAIN AFFECTING THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH/EAST OF INTERSTATE 4.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BUT LIGHTER RAIN SHOULD LINGER ALONG THE COAST A
LITTLE LONGER.  LOW CEILINGS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET AGL BUT
OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.  DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL DEEPEN AS IT PULLS AWAY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS 35 KNOT GUST POTENTIAL WILL BE NEAR
THE 20 NAUTICAL MILE MARK FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NEAR SHORE AND GALE
WARNING OFFSHORE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT/SUNDAY...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SHARP




000
FXUS62 KTAE 070118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 4 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front off the east coast of FL, and a dry airmass across much of
the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a vigorous
short wave trough over the central Gulf Coast, which was
translating quickly eastward. We adjusted the PoPs across portions
of our forecast area upward a bit based on recent radar and
satellite trends. In fact, the upper level trough has been
energetic enough to produce elevated thunderstorms near its core.
The rain will end before surface temperatures fall into the mid
30s, so we don`t expect any problems with freezing or frozen
precipitation.

&&

.Prev Discussion [620 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A strong +PV anomaly over the state of Florida to start the
period will be well into the process of spinning up a strong
surface low in the western Atlantic. By late Sunday night, the
coupled low pressure system will be vertically stacked off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, and will continue to move further east into
the Atlantic for the remainder of the period. As far as sensible
weather is concerned, the only effects we`ll experience is a
continuation of cool afternoon highs as we mix into the
anomalously cold temperatures aloft. Highs on Sunday should remain
in the mid 50s region-wide. With healthy gradient winds expected
through the night Sunday night, lows are only forecast to fall
into the mid to upper 30s. On Monday, another +PV anomaly will
push south around the western edge of a large low over the Great
Lakes region. This will push a cold front into the region through
the day. There is some disagreement between models on whether
we`ll see any measurable QPF, models that are a little quicker and
further south bring in enough synoptic forcing before the moisture
is scoured out. At this time, there is not any advertised QPF
Monday into Monday night. Expect overnight lows on Monday to range
from the low 30s across Alabama and parts of southwest Georgia, up
to around 40 degrees in the extreme southeast Big Bend of Florida.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will prevail aloft through much of the
week before temporarily becoming more zonal Friday into Saturday
ahead of another frontal system. A slight chance for rain is
expected near the end of the period with a somewhat unimpressive
cold front. In general, highs and lows will gradually warm to
near normal levels through the period, with the coldest night
being Tuesday night behind the early week front.


.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Sunday] Occasional -RA will affect north FL and
portions of south GA this evening, including KVLD. The back edge
of the rain will be east of KVLD by around 4z. VFR conditions are
expected across the region through the period. Light N-NW winds
tonight will increase to 10KT (gusts near 20 KT) by Sunday
afternoon.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions are expected later tonight as a strong area of
low pressure in the western Atlantic increases winds locally. A
temporary break from headline conditions is expected Sunday night
until the passage of our next cold front on Monday. In its wake
solid advisory level winds and seas are expected, with the
potential for frequent gale force gusts. These rough conditions
are expected through Tuesday night before much calmer conditions
will prevail after mid-week.


.Fire Weather...

Strong daytime transport winds will drive dispersion values above
75 Sunday and Monday. Although the airmass will be quite dry,
the relatively cool temperatures will likely keep RH values above
locally critical thresholds.


.Hydrology...

Many of our area rivers are in or near flood stage. Currently,
flooding continues with river stages still rising along the
Choctawhatchee River at Caryville and Bruce, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. The Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson has crested, but remains in flood and will gradually
lower over the next several days. Spring Creek at Iron City,
Withlacoochee at Quitman, and Ochlockonee at Thomasville will reach
flood stage this afternoon. The Flint River at Bainbridge will crest
near flood stage Sunday morning. Flooding will also be possible
early next week along the Ochlockonee at Concord and the
Withlacoochee at Quitman. With very low chances of rain for the next
seven days, rivers are expected to gradually lower over the next
week. The one exception is the Apalachicola River at Blountstown,
where upstream dam releases will prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  56  37  61  37 /  20   0   0  10   0
Panama City   39  57  48  59  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dothan        33  56  38  56  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        33  56  36  56  33 /  20   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      36  55  36  61  35 /  60   0   0  10   0
Cross City    39  57  37  63  41 /  50   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  40  57  46  61  44 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 070118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 4 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front off the east coast of FL, and a dry airmass across much of
the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a vigorous
short wave trough over the central Gulf Coast, which was
translating quickly eastward. We adjusted the PoPs across portions
of our forecast area upward a bit based on recent radar and
satellite trends. In fact, the upper level trough has been
energetic enough to produce elevated thunderstorms near its core.
The rain will end before surface temperatures fall into the mid
30s, so we don`t expect any problems with freezing or frozen
precipitation.

&&

.Prev Discussion [620 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A strong +PV anomaly over the state of Florida to start the
period will be well into the process of spinning up a strong
surface low in the western Atlantic. By late Sunday night, the
coupled low pressure system will be vertically stacked off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, and will continue to move further east into
the Atlantic for the remainder of the period. As far as sensible
weather is concerned, the only effects we`ll experience is a
continuation of cool afternoon highs as we mix into the
anomalously cold temperatures aloft. Highs on Sunday should remain
in the mid 50s region-wide. With healthy gradient winds expected
through the night Sunday night, lows are only forecast to fall
into the mid to upper 30s. On Monday, another +PV anomaly will
push south around the western edge of a large low over the Great
Lakes region. This will push a cold front into the region through
the day. There is some disagreement between models on whether
we`ll see any measurable QPF, models that are a little quicker and
further south bring in enough synoptic forcing before the moisture
is scoured out. At this time, there is not any advertised QPF
Monday into Monday night. Expect overnight lows on Monday to range
from the low 30s across Alabama and parts of southwest Georgia, up
to around 40 degrees in the extreme southeast Big Bend of Florida.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will prevail aloft through much of the
week before temporarily becoming more zonal Friday into Saturday
ahead of another frontal system. A slight chance for rain is
expected near the end of the period with a somewhat unimpressive
cold front. In general, highs and lows will gradually warm to
near normal levels through the period, with the coldest night
being Tuesday night behind the early week front.


.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Sunday] Occasional -RA will affect north FL and
portions of south GA this evening, including KVLD. The back edge
of the rain will be east of KVLD by around 4z. VFR conditions are
expected across the region through the period. Light N-NW winds
tonight will increase to 10KT (gusts near 20 KT) by Sunday
afternoon.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions are expected later tonight as a strong area of
low pressure in the western Atlantic increases winds locally. A
temporary break from headline conditions is expected Sunday night
until the passage of our next cold front on Monday. In its wake
solid advisory level winds and seas are expected, with the
potential for frequent gale force gusts. These rough conditions
are expected through Tuesday night before much calmer conditions
will prevail after mid-week.


.Fire Weather...

Strong daytime transport winds will drive dispersion values above
75 Sunday and Monday. Although the airmass will be quite dry,
the relatively cool temperatures will likely keep RH values above
locally critical thresholds.


.Hydrology...

Many of our area rivers are in or near flood stage. Currently,
flooding continues with river stages still rising along the
Choctawhatchee River at Caryville and Bruce, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. The Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson has crested, but remains in flood and will gradually
lower over the next several days. Spring Creek at Iron City,
Withlacoochee at Quitman, and Ochlockonee at Thomasville will reach
flood stage this afternoon. The Flint River at Bainbridge will crest
near flood stage Sunday morning. Flooding will also be possible
early next week along the Ochlockonee at Concord and the
Withlacoochee at Quitman. With very low chances of rain for the next
seven days, rivers are expected to gradually lower over the next
week. The one exception is the Apalachicola River at Blountstown,
where upstream dam releases will prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  56  37  61  37 /  20   0   0  10   0
Panama City   39  57  48  59  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dothan        33  56  38  56  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        33  56  36  56  33 /  20   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      36  55  36  61  35 /  60   0   0  10   0
Cross City    39  57  37  63  41 /  50   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  40  57  46  61  44 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 070118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
818 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 4 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front off the east coast of FL, and a dry airmass across much of
the Southeast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a vigorous
short wave trough over the central Gulf Coast, which was
translating quickly eastward. We adjusted the PoPs across portions
of our forecast area upward a bit based on recent radar and
satellite trends. In fact, the upper level trough has been
energetic enough to produce elevated thunderstorms near its core.
The rain will end before surface temperatures fall into the mid
30s, so we don`t expect any problems with freezing or frozen
precipitation.

&&

.Prev Discussion [620 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A strong +PV anomaly over the state of Florida to start the
period will be well into the process of spinning up a strong
surface low in the western Atlantic. By late Sunday night, the
coupled low pressure system will be vertically stacked off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, and will continue to move further east into
the Atlantic for the remainder of the period. As far as sensible
weather is concerned, the only effects we`ll experience is a
continuation of cool afternoon highs as we mix into the
anomalously cold temperatures aloft. Highs on Sunday should remain
in the mid 50s region-wide. With healthy gradient winds expected
through the night Sunday night, lows are only forecast to fall
into the mid to upper 30s. On Monday, another +PV anomaly will
push south around the western edge of a large low over the Great
Lakes region. This will push a cold front into the region through
the day. There is some disagreement between models on whether
we`ll see any measurable QPF, models that are a little quicker and
further south bring in enough synoptic forcing before the moisture
is scoured out. At this time, there is not any advertised QPF
Monday into Monday night. Expect overnight lows on Monday to range
from the low 30s across Alabama and parts of southwest Georgia, up
to around 40 degrees in the extreme southeast Big Bend of Florida.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will prevail aloft through much of the
week before temporarily becoming more zonal Friday into Saturday
ahead of another frontal system. A slight chance for rain is
expected near the end of the period with a somewhat unimpressive
cold front. In general, highs and lows will gradually warm to
near normal levels through the period, with the coldest night
being Tuesday night behind the early week front.


.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Sunday] Occasional -RA will affect north FL and
portions of south GA this evening, including KVLD. The back edge
of the rain will be east of KVLD by around 4z. VFR conditions are
expected across the region through the period. Light N-NW winds
tonight will increase to 10KT (gusts near 20 KT) by Sunday
afternoon.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions are expected later tonight as a strong area of
low pressure in the western Atlantic increases winds locally. A
temporary break from headline conditions is expected Sunday night
until the passage of our next cold front on Monday. In its wake
solid advisory level winds and seas are expected, with the
potential for frequent gale force gusts. These rough conditions
are expected through Tuesday night before much calmer conditions
will prevail after mid-week.


.Fire Weather...

Strong daytime transport winds will drive dispersion values above
75 Sunday and Monday. Although the airmass will be quite dry,
the relatively cool temperatures will likely keep RH values above
locally critical thresholds.


.Hydrology...

Many of our area rivers are in or near flood stage. Currently,
flooding continues with river stages still rising along the
Choctawhatchee River at Caryville and Bruce, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. The Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson has crested, but remains in flood and will gradually
lower over the next several days. Spring Creek at Iron City,
Withlacoochee at Quitman, and Ochlockonee at Thomasville will reach
flood stage this afternoon. The Flint River at Bainbridge will crest
near flood stage Sunday morning. Flooding will also be possible
early next week along the Ochlockonee at Concord and the
Withlacoochee at Quitman. With very low chances of rain for the next
seven days, rivers are expected to gradually lower over the next
week. The one exception is the Apalachicola River at Blountstown,
where upstream dam releases will prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  56  37  61  37 /  20   0   0  10   0
Panama City   39  57  48  59  42 /  20   0   0   0   0
Dothan        33  56  38  56  33 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        33  56  36  56  33 /  20   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      36  55  36  61  35 /  60   0   0  10   0
Cross City    39  57  37  63  41 /  50   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  40  57  46  61  44 /  20   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 070021 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
EVENING. THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.SO THE ONLY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO UP THE POPS TO CLOSE T 100 PERCENT
FOR THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE EAST COAST NOW AND IS NOW AFFECTING MOST
OF SOUTH FL. CIG ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING.
FROM PREV DISCUSSION/NO CHANGES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT ALONG WITH RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AT NAPLES AND CLOSER TO 09Z EAST COAST TERMINALS,
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR
IFR CEILINGS. W-NW WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND DEVELOPING FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS GULF COAST AFTER 21Z, THEN 00Z-03Z EAST COAST. NW
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER/GUSTIER AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

.WET WEATHER TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING DRY AND MUCH COOLER LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
.ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST INTO THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE HEATING. THE RAIN THREAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR SUNDAY...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY GET UP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE HIGHS
WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE
METRO AREAS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT LOWER
TO MID 40S METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH THE METRO AREAS SEEING
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MORNING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST ON MONDAY INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS AND THE GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE DIRECTION SWINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE
THEY LIKELY WILL HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS FOR SUNDAY.

THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY MONDAY BE LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A NORTHEAST
SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PEAK OF 5 TO 7 FEET IN PALM BEACH WATERS AND 3 TO 5
FEET IN REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OF SEAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AT 8 TO 10 FEET. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY
AT 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 5 TO 9 FEET IN THE
NEAR-SHORE WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  63  41  66 / 100  20   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  53  64  44  68 / 100  20   0  10
MIAMI            53  65  44  68 / 100  20   0  10
NAPLES           53  62  44  66 /  90  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 1 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 070021 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
EVENING. THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.SO THE ONLY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO UP THE POPS TO CLOSE T 100 PERCENT
FOR THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE EAST COAST NOW AND IS NOW AFFECTING MOST
OF SOUTH FL. CIG ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING.
FROM PREV DISCUSSION/NO CHANGES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT ALONG WITH RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AT NAPLES AND CLOSER TO 09Z EAST COAST TERMINALS,
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR
IFR CEILINGS. W-NW WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND DEVELOPING FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS GULF COAST AFTER 21Z, THEN 00Z-03Z EAST COAST. NW
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER/GUSTIER AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

.WET WEATHER TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING DRY AND MUCH COOLER LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
.ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST INTO THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE HEATING. THE RAIN THREAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR SUNDAY...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY GET UP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE HIGHS
WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE
METRO AREAS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT LOWER
TO MID 40S METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH THE METRO AREAS SEEING
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MORNING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST ON MONDAY INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS AND THE GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE DIRECTION SWINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE
THEY LIKELY WILL HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS FOR SUNDAY.

THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY MONDAY BE LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A NORTHEAST
SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PEAK OF 5 TO 7 FEET IN PALM BEACH WATERS AND 3 TO 5
FEET IN REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OF SEAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AT 8 TO 10 FEET. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY
AT 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 5 TO 9 FEET IN THE
NEAR-SHORE WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  63  41  66 / 100  20   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  53  64  44  68 / 100  20   0  10
MIAMI            53  65  44  68 / 100  20   0  10
NAPLES           53  62  44  66 /  90  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 1 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 070021 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
THE RAIN HAS FINALLY MOVED INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
EVENING. THE RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.SO THE ONLY CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO UP THE POPS TO CLOSE T 100 PERCENT
FOR THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE EAST COAST NOW AND IS NOW AFFECTING MOST
OF SOUTH FL. CIG ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING.
FROM PREV DISCUSSION/NO CHANGES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT ALONG WITH RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AT NAPLES AND CLOSER TO 09Z EAST COAST TERMINALS,
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR
IFR CEILINGS. W-NW WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND DEVELOPING FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS GULF COAST AFTER 21Z, THEN 00Z-03Z EAST COAST. NW
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER/GUSTIER AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

.WET WEATHER TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING DRY AND MUCH COOLER LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
.ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST INTO THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE HEATING. THE RAIN THREAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR SUNDAY...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY GET UP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE HIGHS
WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE
METRO AREAS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT LOWER
TO MID 40S METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH THE METRO AREAS SEEING
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MORNING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST ON MONDAY INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS AND THE GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE DIRECTION SWINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE
THEY LIKELY WILL HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS FOR SUNDAY.

THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY MONDAY BE LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A NORTHEAST
SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PEAK OF 5 TO 7 FEET IN PALM BEACH WATERS AND 3 TO 5
FEET IN REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OF SEAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AT 8 TO 10 FEET. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY
AT 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 5 TO 9 FEET IN THE
NEAR-SHORE WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  63  41  66 / 100  20   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  53  64  44  68 / 100  20   0  10
MIAMI            53  65  44  68 / 100  20   0  10
NAPLES           53  62  44  66 /  90  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 1 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 070010
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
710 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE EAST COAST NOW AND IS NOW AFFECTING MOST
OF SOUTH FL. CIG ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING.
FROM PREV DISCUSSION/NO CHANGES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT ALONG WITH RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AT NAPLES AND CLOSER TO 09Z EAST COAST TERMINALS,
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR
IFR CEILINGS. W-NW WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND DEVELOPING FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS GULF COAST AFTER 21Z, THEN 00Z-03Z EAST COAST. NW
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER/GUSTIER AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

..WET WEATHER TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING DRY AND MUCH COOLER LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST INTO THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE HEATING. THE RAIN THREAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR SUNDAY...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY GET UP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE HIGHS
WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE
METRO AREAS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT LOWER
TO MID 40S METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH THE METRO AREAS SEEING
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MORNING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST ON MONDAY INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS AND THE GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE DIRECTION SWINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE
THEY LIKELY WILL HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS FOR SUNDAY.

THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY MONDAY BE LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A NORTHEAST
SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PEAK OF 5 TO 7 FEET IN PALM BEACH WATERS AND 3 TO 5
FEET IN REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OF SEAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AT 8 TO 10 FEET. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY
AT 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 5 TO 9 FEET IN THE
NEAR-SHORE WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  63  41  66 /  90  20   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  53  64  44  68 /  90  20   0  10
MIAMI            53  65  44  68 /  90  20   0  10
NAPLES           53  62  44  66 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 1 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 070010
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
710 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE EAST COAST NOW AND IS NOW AFFECTING MOST
OF SOUTH FL. CIG ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING.
FROM PREV DISCUSSION/NO CHANGES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT ALONG WITH RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AT NAPLES AND CLOSER TO 09Z EAST COAST TERMINALS,
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR
IFR CEILINGS. W-NW WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND DEVELOPING FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS GULF COAST AFTER 21Z, THEN 00Z-03Z EAST COAST. NW
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER/GUSTIER AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

..WET WEATHER TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING DRY AND MUCH COOLER LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST INTO THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE HEATING. THE RAIN THREAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR SUNDAY...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY GET UP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE HIGHS
WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE
METRO AREAS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT LOWER
TO MID 40S METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH THE METRO AREAS SEEING
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MORNING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST ON MONDAY INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS AND THE GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE DIRECTION SWINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE
THEY LIKELY WILL HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS FOR SUNDAY.

THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY MONDAY BE LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A NORTHEAST
SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PEAK OF 5 TO 7 FEET IN PALM BEACH WATERS AND 3 TO 5
FEET IN REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OF SEAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AT 8 TO 10 FEET. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY
AT 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 5 TO 9 FEET IN THE
NEAR-SHORE WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  63  41  66 /  90  20   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  53  64  44  68 /  90  20   0  10
MIAMI            53  65  44  68 /  90  20   0  10
NAPLES           53  62  44  66 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 1 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 070010
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
710 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
RAIN HAS MOVED INTO THE EAST COAST NOW AND IS NOW AFFECTING MOST
OF SOUTH FL. CIG ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS EVENING.
FROM PREV DISCUSSION/NO CHANGES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT ALONG WITH RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH
ABOUT 06Z AT NAPLES AND CLOSER TO 09Z EAST COAST TERMINALS,
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A RATHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR
IFR CEILINGS. W-NW WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND DEVELOPING FRONT WILL
SPREAD ACROSS GULF COAST AFTER 21Z, THEN 00Z-03Z EAST COAST. NW
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 25 KT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER/GUSTIER AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

..WET WEATHER TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING DRY AND MUCH COOLER LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
..ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST INTO THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE HEATING. THE RAIN THREAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR SUNDAY...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY GET UP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE HIGHS
WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE
METRO AREAS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT LOWER
TO MID 40S METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH THE METRO AREAS SEEING
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MORNING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST ON MONDAY INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS AND THE GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE DIRECTION SWINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE
THEY LIKELY WILL HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS FOR SUNDAY.

THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY MONDAY BE LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A NORTHEAST
SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PEAK OF 5 TO 7 FEET IN PALM BEACH WATERS AND 3 TO 5
FEET IN REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OF SEAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AT 8 TO 10 FEET. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY
AT 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 5 TO 9 FEET IN THE
NEAR-SHORE WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  63  41  66 /  90  20   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  53  64  44  68 /  90  20   0  10
MIAMI            53  65  44  68 /  90  20   0  10
NAPLES           53  62  44  66 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 1 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KTAE 062320
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Sunday] Occasional -RA will affect north FL and
portions of south GA this evening, including KVLD. The back edge
of the rain will be east of KVLD by around 4z. VFR conditions are
expected across the region through the period. Light N-NW winds
tonight will increase to 10KT (gusts near 20 KT) by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [324 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Patchy light rain has developed mainly over our eastern zones due to
weak isentropic ascent ahead of an approaching upper low/trough
currently moving into western Louisiana. The upper low will continue
eastward and be positioned in the Florida Panhandle by 12z. This in
turn will help spin up the surface low currently east of the Florida
peninsula. Wrap around moisture from this feature will keep low
level cloudiness across the local region into the early morning
hours before beginning to clear from west to east. Patchy light rain
will also continue over our easternmost zones until or shortly after
midnight. In other words, we don`t believe there will be lingering
precip when low temps are forecast to drop into the mid 30s.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A strong +PV anomaly over the state of Florida to start the
period will be well into the process of spinning up a strong
surface low in the western Atlantic. By late Sunday night, the
coupled low pressure system will be vertically stacked off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, and will continue to move further east into
the Atlantic for the remainder of the period. As far as sensible
weather is concerned, the only effects we`ll experience is a
continuation of cool afternoon highs as we mix into the
anomalously cold temperatures aloft. Highs on Sunday should remain
in the mid 50s region-wide. With healthy gradient winds expected
through the night Sunday night, lows are only forecast to fall
into the mid to upper 30s. On Monday, another +PV anomaly will
push south around the western edge of a large low over the Great
Lakes region. This will push a cold front into the region through
the day. There is some disagreement between models on whether
we`ll see any measurable QPF, models that are a little quicker and
further south bring in enough synoptic forcing before the moisture
is scoured out. At this time, there is not any advertised QPF
Monday into Monday night. Expect overnight lows on Monday to range
from the low 30s across Alabama and parts of southwest Georgia, up
to around 40 degrees in the extreme southeast Big Bend of Florida.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will prevail aloft through much of the
week before temporarily becoming more zonal Friday into Saturday
ahead of another frontal system. A slight chance for rain is
expected near the end of the period with a somewhat unimpressive
cold front. In general, highs and lows will gradually warm to
near normal levels through the period, with the coldest night
being Tuesday night behind the early week front.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions are expected later tonight as a strong area of
low pressure in the western Atlantic increases winds locally. A
temporary break from headline conditions is expected Sunday night
until the passage of our next cold front on Monday. In its wake
solid advisory level winds and seas are expected, with the
potential for frequent gale force gusts. These rough conditions
are expected through Tuesday night before much calmer conditions
will prevail after mid-week.


.Fire Weather...

Strong daytime transport winds will drive dispersion values above
75 Sunday and Monday. Although the airmass will be quite dry,
the relatively cool temperatures will likely keep RH values above
locally critical thresholds.


.Hydrology...

Many of our area rivers are in or near flood stage. Currently,
flooding continues with river stages still rising along the
Choctawhatchee River at Caryville and Bruce, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. The Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson has crested, but remains in flood and will gradually
lower over the next several days. Spring Creek at Iron City,
Withlacoochee at Quitman, and Ochlockonee at Thomasville will reach
flood stage this afternoon. The Flint River at Bainbridge will crest
near flood stage Sunday morning. Flooding will also be possible
early next week along the Ochlockonee at Concord and the
Withlacoochee at Quitman. With very low chances of rain for the next
seven days, rivers are expected to gradually lower over the next
week. The one exception is the Apalachicola River at Blountstown,
where upstream dam releases will prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  56  37  61  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   39  57  48  59  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        33  56  38  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        33  56  36  56  33 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      36  55  36  61  35 /  30   0   0  10   0
Cross City    39  57  37  63  41 /  30   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  40  57  46  61  44 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 062320
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Sunday] Occasional -RA will affect north FL and
portions of south GA this evening, including KVLD. The back edge
of the rain will be east of KVLD by around 4z. VFR conditions are
expected across the region through the period. Light N-NW winds
tonight will increase to 10KT (gusts near 20 KT) by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [324 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Patchy light rain has developed mainly over our eastern zones due to
weak isentropic ascent ahead of an approaching upper low/trough
currently moving into western Louisiana. The upper low will continue
eastward and be positioned in the Florida Panhandle by 12z. This in
turn will help spin up the surface low currently east of the Florida
peninsula. Wrap around moisture from this feature will keep low
level cloudiness across the local region into the early morning
hours before beginning to clear from west to east. Patchy light rain
will also continue over our easternmost zones until or shortly after
midnight. In other words, we don`t believe there will be lingering
precip when low temps are forecast to drop into the mid 30s.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A strong +PV anomaly over the state of Florida to start the
period will be well into the process of spinning up a strong
surface low in the western Atlantic. By late Sunday night, the
coupled low pressure system will be vertically stacked off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, and will continue to move further east into
the Atlantic for the remainder of the period. As far as sensible
weather is concerned, the only effects we`ll experience is a
continuation of cool afternoon highs as we mix into the
anomalously cold temperatures aloft. Highs on Sunday should remain
in the mid 50s region-wide. With healthy gradient winds expected
through the night Sunday night, lows are only forecast to fall
into the mid to upper 30s. On Monday, another +PV anomaly will
push south around the western edge of a large low over the Great
Lakes region. This will push a cold front into the region through
the day. There is some disagreement between models on whether
we`ll see any measurable QPF, models that are a little quicker and
further south bring in enough synoptic forcing before the moisture
is scoured out. At this time, there is not any advertised QPF
Monday into Monday night. Expect overnight lows on Monday to range
from the low 30s across Alabama and parts of southwest Georgia, up
to around 40 degrees in the extreme southeast Big Bend of Florida.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will prevail aloft through much of the
week before temporarily becoming more zonal Friday into Saturday
ahead of another frontal system. A slight chance for rain is
expected near the end of the period with a somewhat unimpressive
cold front. In general, highs and lows will gradually warm to
near normal levels through the period, with the coldest night
being Tuesday night behind the early week front.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions are expected later tonight as a strong area of
low pressure in the western Atlantic increases winds locally. A
temporary break from headline conditions is expected Sunday night
until the passage of our next cold front on Monday. In its wake
solid advisory level winds and seas are expected, with the
potential for frequent gale force gusts. These rough conditions
are expected through Tuesday night before much calmer conditions
will prevail after mid-week.


.Fire Weather...

Strong daytime transport winds will drive dispersion values above
75 Sunday and Monday. Although the airmass will be quite dry,
the relatively cool temperatures will likely keep RH values above
locally critical thresholds.


.Hydrology...

Many of our area rivers are in or near flood stage. Currently,
flooding continues with river stages still rising along the
Choctawhatchee River at Caryville and Bruce, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. The Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson has crested, but remains in flood and will gradually
lower over the next several days. Spring Creek at Iron City,
Withlacoochee at Quitman, and Ochlockonee at Thomasville will reach
flood stage this afternoon. The Flint River at Bainbridge will crest
near flood stage Sunday morning. Flooding will also be possible
early next week along the Ochlockonee at Concord and the
Withlacoochee at Quitman. With very low chances of rain for the next
seven days, rivers are expected to gradually lower over the next
week. The one exception is the Apalachicola River at Blountstown,
where upstream dam releases will prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  56  37  61  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   39  57  48  59  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        33  56  38  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        33  56  36  56  33 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      36  55  36  61  35 /  30   0   0  10   0
Cross City    39  57  37  63  41 /  30   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  40  57  46  61  44 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 062320
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
620 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Sunday] Occasional -RA will affect north FL and
portions of south GA this evening, including KVLD. The back edge
of the rain will be east of KVLD by around 4z. VFR conditions are
expected across the region through the period. Light N-NW winds
tonight will increase to 10KT (gusts near 20 KT) by Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [324 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Patchy light rain has developed mainly over our eastern zones due to
weak isentropic ascent ahead of an approaching upper low/trough
currently moving into western Louisiana. The upper low will continue
eastward and be positioned in the Florida Panhandle by 12z. This in
turn will help spin up the surface low currently east of the Florida
peninsula. Wrap around moisture from this feature will keep low
level cloudiness across the local region into the early morning
hours before beginning to clear from west to east. Patchy light rain
will also continue over our easternmost zones until or shortly after
midnight. In other words, we don`t believe there will be lingering
precip when low temps are forecast to drop into the mid 30s.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A strong +PV anomaly over the state of Florida to start the
period will be well into the process of spinning up a strong
surface low in the western Atlantic. By late Sunday night, the
coupled low pressure system will be vertically stacked off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, and will continue to move further east into
the Atlantic for the remainder of the period. As far as sensible
weather is concerned, the only effects we`ll experience is a
continuation of cool afternoon highs as we mix into the
anomalously cold temperatures aloft. Highs on Sunday should remain
in the mid 50s region-wide. With healthy gradient winds expected
through the night Sunday night, lows are only forecast to fall
into the mid to upper 30s. On Monday, another +PV anomaly will
push south around the western edge of a large low over the Great
Lakes region. This will push a cold front into the region through
the day. There is some disagreement between models on whether
we`ll see any measurable QPF, models that are a little quicker and
further south bring in enough synoptic forcing before the moisture
is scoured out. At this time, there is not any advertised QPF
Monday into Monday night. Expect overnight lows on Monday to range
from the low 30s across Alabama and parts of southwest Georgia, up
to around 40 degrees in the extreme southeast Big Bend of Florida.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will prevail aloft through much of the
week before temporarily becoming more zonal Friday into Saturday
ahead of another frontal system. A slight chance for rain is
expected near the end of the period with a somewhat unimpressive
cold front. In general, highs and lows will gradually warm to
near normal levels through the period, with the coldest night
being Tuesday night behind the early week front.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions are expected later tonight as a strong area of
low pressure in the western Atlantic increases winds locally. A
temporary break from headline conditions is expected Sunday night
until the passage of our next cold front on Monday. In its wake
solid advisory level winds and seas are expected, with the
potential for frequent gale force gusts. These rough conditions
are expected through Tuesday night before much calmer conditions
will prevail after mid-week.


.Fire Weather...

Strong daytime transport winds will drive dispersion values above
75 Sunday and Monday. Although the airmass will be quite dry,
the relatively cool temperatures will likely keep RH values above
locally critical thresholds.


.Hydrology...

Many of our area rivers are in or near flood stage. Currently,
flooding continues with river stages still rising along the
Choctawhatchee River at Caryville and Bruce, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. The Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson has crested, but remains in flood and will gradually
lower over the next several days. Spring Creek at Iron City,
Withlacoochee at Quitman, and Ochlockonee at Thomasville will reach
flood stage this afternoon. The Flint River at Bainbridge will crest
near flood stage Sunday morning. Flooding will also be possible
early next week along the Ochlockonee at Concord and the
Withlacoochee at Quitman. With very low chances of rain for the next
seven days, rivers are expected to gradually lower over the next
week. The one exception is the Apalachicola River at Blountstown,
where upstream dam releases will prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  56  37  61  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   39  57  48  59  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        33  56  38  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        33  56  36  56  33 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      36  55  36  61  35 /  30   0   0  10   0
Cross City    39  57  37  63  41 /  30   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  40  57  46  61  44 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 062100
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...WET WEATHER TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING DRY AND MUCH COOLER LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL
NOT MOVE MUCH THIS EVENING...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT AND
MOVES NORTHEAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO MOVE BACK SOUTH AS A COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SUNDAY.

SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH EAST INTO THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE OVER THIS AREA DUE TO THE HEATING. THE RAIN THREAT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY ON SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE
BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH FOR SUNDAY...AS HIGHS WILL ONLY GET UP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 60S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE HIGHS
WILL ONLY GET INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT TO LESS THAN 5 MPH...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE
METRO AREAS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT LOWER
TO MID 40S METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH THE METRO AREAS SEEING
WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MORNING MORNING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE EAST ON MONDAY INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL REINFORCE THE DRY
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS AND THE GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.


.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT...AS THE DIRECTION SWINGS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE
THEY LIKELY WILL HAVE FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR THE
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS FOR SUNDAY.

THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND BY MONDAY BE LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A NORTHEAST
SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WITH THE PEAK OF 5 TO 7 FEET IN PALM BEACH WATERS AND 3 TO 5
FEET IN REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OF SEAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
AT 8 TO 10 FEET. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL PEAK ON SUNDAY
AT 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND 5 TO 9 FEET IN THE
NEAR-SHORE WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
COLLIER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  63  41  66 /  90  20   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  53  64  44  68 /  90  20   0  10
MIAMI            53  65  44  68 /  90  20   0  10
NAPLES           53  62  44  66 /  70  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 1 AM EST SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KJAX 062048
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE 850MB LOW AND ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WAS LEADING TO A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING...CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE WITH RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT LEADING TO A PERIOD OF NEAR
SUSTAINED GALES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FORECAST IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.

MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE FENCE OF WHETHER OR NOT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE NAM IS ON THE COOLER SIDE AND
SHOWS THE SOUNDING COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING UNTIL ABOUT 1000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ALMA. OTHER
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIZABLE WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO WILL NOT PUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY ALLOW A BRIEF MIX TO
QUICK CHANGE OVER OF SNOW IN THAT REGION OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES IF THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE PREVAILS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID
30S TO THE MID 40S. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR 30 TO THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH ANY PRECIP ENDING BY NOON FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL ALSO CLEAR THE REGION BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND NEAR 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS DEPARTS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
EARLY SUN EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A LONG-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ON TUES. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TEMPORARILY LOOSEN ON SUN NIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
LOWS INLAND TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY...SHUTTING OFF COLD AIR ADVECTION. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL
TO AROUND 5 MPH INLAND AND NEAR 10 MPH AT THE COAST...AND A FEW
PATCHES OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY
ON MON MORNING. LOWS AT THE COAST WILL FALL TO AROUND 40.

THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON MON AHEAD OF A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 MPH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS MON WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMO...GENERALLY
60-65...BEFORE CLOUDINESS INCREASES DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON MON EVENING...WITH THE FRONT BLASTING
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNSET. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL MON
NIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING W/NW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BRINGING LOWS BACK TO THE MID 30S
INLAND...AND NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. WIND CHILLS BY TUES MORNING
WILL FALL TO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOWER 30S AT THE COAST.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON
TUES...WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUES AFTERNOON AS VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT
INCREASE INSTABILITY. W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAKING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S FEEL EVEN COLDER. W/NW WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 5-10 MPH
RANGE OVERNIGHT TUES NIGHT AND NEAR 15 MPH AT THE
BEACHES...CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S REGION-WIDE. INLAND
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON WED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AREA-WIDE...WITH A
LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED INLAND AS SKIES CLEAR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON WED...AND WILL
THEN MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WED NIGHT. ANOTHER BREEZY AND
CHILLY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WED DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 50-55 REGION-WIDE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA WED EVENING...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
DECREASE. AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY FOR INLAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURS MORNING...WITH A HEAVY FROST
POSSIBLE INLAND AS WINDS BECOME CALM. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
MODERATE THURS AND FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS THURS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EXPECTED. LOWS THURS NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR FRI...GENERALLY 65-70. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL THEN DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRI
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEPING LOWS IN THE 45-50
RANGE. THE FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
SAT...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S.

&&


.AVIATION...
LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED  TO PREVAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT RAIN PREVAILING THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND NEAR GALE SUSTAINED FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 KNOTS. FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...SUSTAINED HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
INCREASING BEHIND ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH  WEDNESDAY AS STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS PREVAIL OVER OUR
REGION. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR AREA ON SUN
AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 30-35
PERCENT INLAND. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MON...TUES...AND WED AFTERNOONS...WITH STRONG MAINLY WESTERLY
WINDS BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS EACH DAY. RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE DRIVEN ERC VALUES
WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...AND THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  57  36  59 /  40  10   0  20
SSI  39  53  39  60 /  70  40   0  20
JAX  41  55  37  64 /  70  20   0  10
SGJ  43  55  40  64 /  70  20   0  10
GNV  39  57  36  64 /  60   0   0  20
OCF  41  58  36  64 /  70   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

KENNEDY/NELSON/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 062048
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE 850MB LOW AND ALONG THE COASTAL
TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WAS LEADING TO A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING...CYCLOGENESIS WILL ENSUE WITH RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA. A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT LEADING TO A PERIOD OF NEAR
SUSTAINED GALES OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. GOOD CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN ARE FORECAST IN THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.

MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE FENCE OF WHETHER OR NOT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL COOL ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE NAM IS ON THE COOLER SIDE AND
SHOWS THE SOUNDING COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING UNTIL ABOUT 1000 FT
ABOVE THE SURFACE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ALMA. OTHER
GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIZABLE WARM NOSE ALOFT...SO WILL NOT PUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GOOD LIFT IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY ALLOW A BRIEF MIX TO
QUICK CHANGE OVER OF SNOW IN THAT REGION OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON GRASSY SURFACES IF THE COLD SIDE OF
GUIDANCE PREVAILS. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID
30S TO THE MID 40S. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT...AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE NEAR 30 TO THE MID 30S ACROSS
THE REGION.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH ANY PRECIP ENDING BY NOON FOR THE COASTAL
AREAS AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL ALSO CLEAR THE REGION BY THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S ONCE AGAIN. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH AND NEAR 20 MPH ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS THE DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS DEPARTS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
EARLY SUN EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A LONG-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES STATES THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION ON TUES. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TEMPORARILY LOOSEN ON SUN NIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
LOWS INLAND TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME
WESTERLY...SHUTTING OFF COLD AIR ADVECTION. WIND SPEEDS WILL FALL
TO AROUND 5 MPH INLAND AND NEAR 10 MPH AT THE COAST...AND A FEW
PATCHES OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE IN SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY
ON MON MORNING. LOWS AT THE COAST WILL FALL TO AROUND 40.

THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON MON AHEAD OF A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15-20 MPH BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING ALONG THE FRONT TO SQUEEZE OUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES. HIGHS MON WILL REBOUND TO NEAR CLIMO...GENERALLY
60-65...BEFORE CLOUDINESS INCREASES DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT
OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON MON EVENING...WITH THE FRONT BLASTING
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNSET. A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL MON
NIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING W/NW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BRINGING LOWS BACK TO THE MID 30S
INLAND...AND NEAR 40 AT THE COAST. WIND CHILLS BY TUES MORNING
WILL FALL TO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOWER 30S AT THE COAST.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON
TUES...WITH SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE FUNNELING INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON TUES AFTERNOON AS VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT
INCREASE INSTABILITY. W/NW WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAKING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S FEEL EVEN COLDER. W/NW WINDS WILL STAY IN THE 5-10 MPH
RANGE OVERNIGHT TUES NIGHT AND NEAR 15 MPH AT THE
BEACHES...CREATING WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S REGION-WIDE. INLAND
LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THE PREDAWN
HOURS ON WED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AREA-WIDE...WITH A
LIGHT FREEZE EXPECTED INLAND AS SKIES CLEAR DURING THE EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON WED...AND WILL
THEN MOVE OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD WED NIGHT. ANOTHER BREEZY AND
CHILLY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WED DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE...WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY 50-55 REGION-WIDE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD DIRECTLY OVER OUR AREA WED EVENING...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO
DECREASE. AT LEAST A LIGHT FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY FOR INLAND AREAS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURS MORNING...WITH A HEAVY FROST
POSSIBLE INLAND AS WINDS BECOME CALM. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
MODERATE THURS AND FRI AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. HIGHS THURS
WILL STILL RUN A FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EXPECTED. LOWS THURS NIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR FRI...GENERALLY 65-70. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL THEN DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRI
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEPING LOWS IN THE 45-50
RANGE. THE FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON
SAT...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 60S.

&&


.AVIATION...
LOWER CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED  TO PREVAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH
IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT RAIN PREVAILING THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OFF THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS...AND NEAR GALE SUSTAINED FORCE WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 KNOTS. FOR THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...SUSTAINED HIGH END SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A
FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE
INCREASING BEHIND ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH  WEDNESDAY AS STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS PREVAIL OVER OUR
REGION. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL PLUNGE INTO OUR AREA ON SUN
AFTERNOON...WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 30-35
PERCENT INLAND. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
MON...TUES...AND WED AFTERNOONS...WITH STRONG MAINLY WESTERLY
WINDS BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS EACH DAY. RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE DRIVEN ERC VALUES
WELL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...AND THUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  36  57  36  59 /  40  10   0  20
SSI  39  53  39  60 /  70  40   0  20
JAX  41  55  37  64 /  70  20   0  10
SGJ  43  55  40  64 /  70  20   0  10
GNV  39  57  36  64 /  60   0   0  20
OCF  41  58  36  64 /  70   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

KENNEDY/NELSON/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KKEY 062036
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
336 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST IS
DEVELOPING INTO A LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. AS A
RESULT...WINDS VARY QUITE A BIT ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...WITH
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST BREEZES ON OUR EASTERN ZONES...AND MODERATE
NORTHERLIES OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. LARGE SCALE UPGLIDE THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS IS STRENGTHENING AS A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN CENTERED OVER THE LOWER AND MARQUESAS KEYS CONTINUES TO
EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS THAT SAW AN EASTERLY FLOW WERE ABLE TO
GET INTO THE MID 70S...WHILE AREAS THAT BACKED NORTHERLY WERE CAPPED
IN THE LOWER 70S THIS MORNING.

FORECAST - THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ARC ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN
LIFT OUT NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY...TAKING THE SURFACE LOW WITH IT. IN
THE MEAN TIME...WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH...FLUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS. EXPECT
CONTINUES PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT...PERHAPS INTO EARLY
TOMORROW...DIMINISHING IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SHOT OF
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 60 WITH DEW POINTS
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S BY SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE UPPER 60S.

WINDS WILL QUICKLY RELAX SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE KEYS MONDAY EVENING.
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE MOISTURE STARVED...AND
ONLY SLIGHT POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED. HOWEVER...THE WESTERLY WIND
SURGE WILL BE EQUALLY STRONG. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHERLY
AND RELAX HEADING INTO MID WEEK. THE CONTINUED COOL TRAJECTORY WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...A HIGH CELL WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND SPREAD OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER NORTHEAST THEN
EAST. AS THE TRAJECTORY BECOMES MORE VEERED...TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY MODERATE...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM TO NONE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WILL DRIVE A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TONIGHT...AS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER PRIORITIES OF KEYS WATERS. SEAS WILL CORRESPONDINGLY
BUILD...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OVER OUR WESTERN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL SUBSIDE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN SURGE AGAIN LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE KEYS.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL TREND DOWNWARDS AND SLOWLY CLOCK AROUND TO
EAST NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SPREADS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO A LARGE PERSISTENT AREA OF RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...BECOMING STRONG OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT CROSS WINDS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  60  67  56  67 / 90 20 -  -
MARATHON  59  67  54  67 / 90 20 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 062024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Patchy light rain has developed mainly over our eastern zones due to
weak isentropic ascent ahead of an approaching upper low/trough
currently moving into western Louisiana. The upper low will continue
eastward and be positioned in the Florida Panhandle by 12z. This in
turn will help spin up the surface low currently east of the Florida
peninsula. Wrap around moisture from this feature will keep low
level cloudiness across the local region into the early morning
hours before beginning to clear from west to east. Patchy light rain
will also continue over our easternmost zones until or shortly after
midnight. In other words, we don`t believe there will be lingering
precip when low temps are forecast to drop into the mid 30s.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A strong +PV anomaly over the state of Florida to start the
period will be well into the process of spinning up a strong
surface low in the western Atlantic. By late Sunday night, the
coupled low pressure system will be vertically stacked off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, and will continue to move further east into
the Atlantic for the remainder of the period. As far as sensible
weather is concerned, the only effects we`ll experience is a
continuation of cool afternoon highs as we mix into the
anomalously cold temperatures aloft. Highs on Sunday should remain
in the mid 50s region-wide. With healthy gradient winds expected
through the night Sunday night, lows are only forecast to fall
into the mid to upper 30s. On Monday, another +PV anomaly will
push south around the western edge of a large low over the Great
Lakes region. This will push a cold front into the region through
the day. There is some disagreement between models on whether
we`ll see any measurable QPF, models that are a little quicker and
further south bring in enough synoptic forcing before the moisture
is scoured out. At this time, there is not any advertised QPF
Monday into Monday night. Expect overnight lows on Monday to range
from the low 30s across Alabama and parts of southwest Georgia, up
to around 40 degrees in the extreme southeast Big Bend of Florida.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will prevail aloft through much of the
week before temporarily becoming more zonal Friday into Saturday
ahead of another frontal system. A slight chance for rain is
expected near the end of the period with a somewhat unimpressive
cold front. In general, highs and lows will gradually warm to
near normal levels through the period, with the coldest night
being Tuesday night behind the early week front.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

VFR conditions will prevail with CIGS in the 4-5 kft range mainly
for the TLH, ABY and VLD terminals through daybreak before skies
begin to clear from west to east. Winds will be light overnight
but become northerly 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts during the
day Sunday.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory conditions are expected later tonight as a strong area of
low pressure in the western Atlantic increases winds locally. A
temporary break from headline conditions is expected Sunday night
until the passage of our next cold front on Monday. In its wake
solid advisory level winds and seas are expected, with the
potential for frequent gale force gusts. These rough conditions
are expected through Tuesday night before much calmer conditions
will prevail after mid-week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Strong daytime transport winds will drive dispersion values above
75 Sunday and Monday. Although the airmass will be quite dry,
the relatively cool temperatures will likely keep RH values above
locally critical thresholds.

&&

.Hydrology...

Many of our area rivers are in or near flood stage. Currently,
flooding continues with river stages still rising along the
Choctawhatchee River at Caryville and Bruce, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. The Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson has crested, but remains in flood and will gradually
lower over the next several days. Spring Creek at Iron City,
Withlacoochee at Quitman, and Ochlockonee at Thomasville will reach
flood stage this afternoon. The Flint River at Bainbridge will crest
near flood stage Sunday morning. Flooding will also be possible
early next week along the Ochlockonee at Concord and the
Withlacoochee at Quitman. With very low chances of rain for the next
seven days, rivers are expected to gradually lower over the next
week. The one exception is the Apalachicola River at Blountstown,
where upstream dam releases will prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  56  37  61  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   39  57  48  59  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        33  56  38  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        33  56  36  56  33 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      36  55  36  61  35 /  30   0   0  10   0
Cross City    39  57  37  63  41 /  30   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  40  57  46  61  44 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 062024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Patchy light rain has developed mainly over our eastern zones due to
weak isentropic ascent ahead of an approaching upper low/trough
currently moving into western Louisiana. The upper low will continue
eastward and be positioned in the Florida Panhandle by 12z. This in
turn will help spin up the surface low currently east of the Florida
peninsula. Wrap around moisture from this feature will keep low
level cloudiness across the local region into the early morning
hours before beginning to clear from west to east. Patchy light rain
will also continue over our easternmost zones until or shortly after
midnight. In other words, we don`t believe there will be lingering
precip when low temps are forecast to drop into the mid 30s.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A strong +PV anomaly over the state of Florida to start the
period will be well into the process of spinning up a strong
surface low in the western Atlantic. By late Sunday night, the
coupled low pressure system will be vertically stacked off the
Mid-Atlantic coast, and will continue to move further east into
the Atlantic for the remainder of the period. As far as sensible
weather is concerned, the only effects we`ll experience is a
continuation of cool afternoon highs as we mix into the
anomalously cold temperatures aloft. Highs on Sunday should remain
in the mid 50s region-wide. With healthy gradient winds expected
through the night Sunday night, lows are only forecast to fall
into the mid to upper 30s. On Monday, another +PV anomaly will
push south around the western edge of a large low over the Great
Lakes region. This will push a cold front into the region through
the day. There is some disagreement between models on whether
we`ll see any measurable QPF, models that are a little quicker and
further south bring in enough synoptic forcing before the moisture
is scoured out. At this time, there is not any advertised QPF
Monday into Monday night. Expect overnight lows on Monday to range
from the low 30s across Alabama and parts of southwest Georgia, up
to around 40 degrees in the extreme southeast Big Bend of Florida.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will prevail aloft through much of the
week before temporarily becoming more zonal Friday into Saturday
ahead of another frontal system. A slight chance for rain is
expected near the end of the period with a somewhat unimpressive
cold front. In general, highs and lows will gradually warm to
near normal levels through the period, with the coldest night
being Tuesday night behind the early week front.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

VFR conditions will prevail with CIGS in the 4-5 kft range mainly
for the TLH, ABY and VLD terminals through daybreak before skies
begin to clear from west to east. Winds will be light overnight
but become northerly 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts during the
day Sunday.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory conditions are expected later tonight as a strong area of
low pressure in the western Atlantic increases winds locally. A
temporary break from headline conditions is expected Sunday night
until the passage of our next cold front on Monday. In its wake
solid advisory level winds and seas are expected, with the
potential for frequent gale force gusts. These rough conditions
are expected through Tuesday night before much calmer conditions
will prevail after mid-week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Strong daytime transport winds will drive dispersion values above
75 Sunday and Monday. Although the airmass will be quite dry,
the relatively cool temperatures will likely keep RH values above
locally critical thresholds.

&&

.Hydrology...

Many of our area rivers are in or near flood stage. Currently,
flooding continues with river stages still rising along the
Choctawhatchee River at Caryville and Bruce, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. The Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson has crested, but remains in flood and will gradually
lower over the next several days. Spring Creek at Iron City,
Withlacoochee at Quitman, and Ochlockonee at Thomasville will reach
flood stage this afternoon. The Flint River at Bainbridge will crest
near flood stage Sunday morning. Flooding will also be possible
early next week along the Ochlockonee at Concord and the
Withlacoochee at Quitman. With very low chances of rain for the next
seven days, rivers are expected to gradually lower over the next
week. The one exception is the Apalachicola River at Blountstown,
where upstream dam releases will prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  56  37  61  37 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   39  57  48  59  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        33  56  38  56  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        33  56  36  56  33 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      36  55  36  61  35 /  30   0   0  10   0
Cross City    39  57  37  63  41 /  30   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  40  57  46  61  44 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Sunday FOR Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 061944
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
244 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
SUNDAY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY AND SUNDAY)...
WE REMAIN POISED TO SEE A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH AND SEVERAL TRAILING
SHORTWAVES ACT TO CARVE OUT LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S...WITH DOMINANT RIDGING FROM THE ROCKIES WEST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WITH THE VERY STRONG UPPER FORCING
OVERSPREADING THE REGION...SHOWER ACTIVITY GOT OFF TO AN EARLIER
START THAN INITIALLY FORECAST. THIS ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...AND MOVED ASHORE LATE THIS MORNING...QUICKLY MOISTENING A
RATHER DRY COLUMN...AND PRECIPITATING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY...EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS.

FROM THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AN ABRUPT CHANGE WILL OCCUR. THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...RESULTING
IN A RAPID TRANSLATION OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE SURFACE LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES TO OUR
EAST AND MOVES OFFSHORE...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SWIFTLY MOVE
IN...GENERATING WINDY CONDITIONS. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EAST...RAIN
WILL END QUICKLY TONIGHT...REPLACED WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT HIGHS TO ONLY REACH
THE 50S SUNDAY...DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
POSITIONED JUST NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY
AIR FILLING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DESCEND THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTH SLOWLY LIFTS OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND CROSS
INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEGINNING TUESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT RATHER COOLER THAN NORMAL...WITH LOWS
EACH MORNING MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S OVER
THE NATURE COAST TO THE 40S AND LOW 50S OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT ON TUESDAY...RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
TO MID 60S...THEN WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WHILE
GUIDANCE IS QUITE BULLISH ON IFR/LIFR CIGS...THESE HAVE BEEN SLOW
TO MATERIALIZE. IT DOES APPEAR AS COOLER AIR BEGINS MOVING IN AT
THE SURFACE...THAT SOME LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY RETURN TO PREVAILING VFR IN THE 10Z TO
12Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTIONARY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NEAR
AND OFFSHORE WATERS...AS LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES TO THE EAST.
THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BAY AND PROTECTED WATERS WILL
ALSO SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR A BRIEF TIME SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER STRONG FRONT WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEEK...CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THEREAFTER...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COOL DRY WEATHER WILL ENSUE.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW HUMIDITIES WITH THE DRIER
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY COOL...AND ERC VALUES WILL
REMAIN LOW. THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED INTO
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  57  45  65 /  30   0   0  10
FMY  50  61  44  66 /  60  10   0  10
GIF  45  58  41  67 /  60  10   0  10
SRQ  49  58  45  67 /  40  10   0  10
BKV  42  56  36  66 /  40   0   0  20
SPG  49  57  49  66 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KMLB 061927
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
227 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS BREAKING OUT ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WITH LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION AND A MID LVL DISTURBANCE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
NRN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO FILL IN ACROSS SRN AREAS
NEAR THE DEVELOPING/SHARPENING CSTL TROUGH THAT PUSHED ONSHORE
ACROSS SRN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE SFC TROUGH IS DELINEATING WARMER
TEMPS INTO THE 70S FROM TITUSVILLE SSW TO OKEECHOBEE AND STILL IN
THE 60S WITH N-NE LOW LVL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT...HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING AS
POS TILT MID LVL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NRN GULF COAST TWD THE NE
GULF LATE TONIGHT. ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE DEPTH TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL-SRN PENINSULA
WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING. DEEPEST LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS SE SECTIONS WHERE SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO A HALF TO ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY 1-2 INCHES WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT NWD TO
MARTIN AND PERHAPS ST LUCIE COUNTY INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING WHERE
A STRAY LIGHTNING STORM MAY DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCES BELOW 20
PCT MENTIONABLE RANGE AND KEEP THE BULK OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS. AS THE LOW MOVES
NNE OFF THE GA/SC COAST LATER TONIGHT VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BY SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOWER 50S FOR THE TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL CONTINUE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY OR WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY REQUIRED. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA AT SUNRISE BUT SHOULD SEE CLEARING INTO LATE
MORNING AND MID DAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES
AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT MID 40S
TREASURE COAST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME BUT NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING ON
WED MORNING WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI (PREVIOUS)...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
MODIFICATION IN TEMPS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL
INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO LATE AFTN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 1-2 KFT BY EARLY EVENING. SCT-NMRS SHRA
IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME FRAME EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER SHRA IN THE KVRB-
KSUA CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DEEPEN INTO LATE TONIGHT AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT GUSTY NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFT 08Z AND INCREASE FURTHER AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 27-30 KNOTS PSBL ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOWER
WRAP AROUND CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED INTO MID DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.

MON-THU...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONG MON-WED THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER NORTH FL THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ESP IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  58  39  65 /  70  10   0  10
MCO  46  59  40  65 /  60  10   0  10
MLB  49  59  40  65 /  80  10   0  10
VRB  51  61  39  65 /  80  10   0  10
LEE  42  58  40  65 /  60   0   0  10
SFB  47  60  40  65 /  60  10   0  10
ORL  47  59  42  64 /  60  10   0  10
FPR  51  60  39  64 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMLB 061927
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
227 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN IS BREAKING OUT ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS WITH LOW LVL WARM ADVECTION AND A MID LVL DISTURBANCE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
NRN AREAS INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO FILL IN ACROSS SRN AREAS
NEAR THE DEVELOPING/SHARPENING CSTL TROUGH THAT PUSHED ONSHORE
ACROSS SRN AREAS THIS MORNING. THE SFC TROUGH IS DELINEATING WARMER
TEMPS INTO THE 70S FROM TITUSVILLE SSW TO OKEECHOBEE AND STILL IN
THE 60S WITH N-NE LOW LVL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.

TONIGHT...HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE THIS EVENING AS
POS TILT MID LVL TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NRN GULF COAST TWD THE NE
GULF LATE TONIGHT. ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW
MOISTURE DEPTH TO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL-SRN PENINSULA
WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING. DEEPEST LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS SE SECTIONS WHERE SOME
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND DEEPER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HEAVIER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO A HALF TO ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SRN
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH LOCALLY 1-2 INCHES WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP. MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL MAKE IT NWD TO
MARTIN AND PERHAPS ST LUCIE COUNTY INTO THE VERY EARLY EVENING WHERE
A STRAY LIGHTNING STORM MAY DEVELOP BUT WILL LEAVE CHANCES BELOW 20
PCT MENTIONABLE RANGE AND KEEP THE BULK OF ANY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY
ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS. AS THE LOW MOVES
NNE OFF THE GA/SC COAST LATER TONIGHT VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BY SUNRISE. MIN TEMPS WILL
DROP INTO THE 40S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOWER 50S FOR THE TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC COAST WILL CONTINUE VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LAKE WIND ADVISORY OR WIND
ADVISORIES LIKELY REQUIRED. THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH
COOLER AIR WITH HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOWER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. WRAP AROUND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WILL AFFECT THE AREA AT SUNRISE BUT SHOULD SEE CLEARING INTO LATE
MORNING AND MID DAY WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES
AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT MID 40S
TREASURE COAST. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME BUT NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING ON
WED MORNING WHICH LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI (PREVIOUS)...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF WILL BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING
FARTHER NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
MODIFICATION IN TEMPS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL
INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO LATE AFTN WITH DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE 1-2 KFT BY EARLY EVENING. SCT-NMRS SHRA
IN THE 21Z-03Z TIME FRAME EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER SHRA IN THE KVRB-
KSUA CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DEEPEN INTO LATE TONIGHT AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT GUSTY NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFT 08Z AND INCREASE FURTHER AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 27-30 KNOTS PSBL ON SUNDAY MORNING. LOWER
WRAP AROUND CIGS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED INTO MID DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING JUST OFFSHORE THE TREASURE COAST THIS
EVENING WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE NNE OVERNIGHT. TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL INCREASE WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS OFFSHORE
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KNOTS. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
SUNDAY MORNING WITH VERY HAZARDOUS SEA AND WINDY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WITH THE GALE WARNING CONTINUING. EXPECT TO TRANSITION
THE GALE TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY
EVE/NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 12-13 FT ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF
STREAM WATERS SUNDAY MORNING.

MON-THU...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE
STRONG MON-WED THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER NORTH FL THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE ESP IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  47  58  39  65 /  70  10   0  10
MCO  46  59  40  65 /  60  10   0  10
MLB  49  59  40  65 /  80  10   0  10
VRB  51  61  39  65 /  80  10   0  10
LEE  42  58  40  65 /  60   0   0  10
SFB  47  60  40  65 /  60  10   0  10
ORL  47  59  42  64 /  60  10   0  10
FPR  51  60  39  64 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMFL 061734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1234 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER GULF
OF MEXICO WILL START IMPACTING SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE MEANTIME, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CEILINGS SHOULD ARRIVE AT
GULF COAST/NAPLES AROUND 21Z-00Z, THEN SPREAD ACROSS PENINSULA
AND REACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 00Z-03Z. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FT ALONG WITH
RAIN/SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AT NAPLES AND CLOSER TO
09Z EAST COAST TERMINALS, THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON A RATHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR IFR CEILINGS. W-NW WINDS 10-15 KT BEHIND
DEVELOPING FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS GULF COAST AFTER 21Z, THEN
00Z-03Z EAST COAST. NW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT GUSTING TO 25
KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER/GUSTIER
AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KTAE 061540
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Satellite and area metars reveal extensive cloud cover mainly
along and east of the river late Saturday morning. Despite the
clouds, A few locations across our easternmost zones, including
Valdosta, have already reached the forecast max temp so made
upward adjustments. Western zones may see a bit more sun than
earlier expected as the western progress of the low level clouds
have slowed considerably. Made adjustments there for sky cover as
well as temps. Also, trimmed back slightly on PoPs for this
afternoon over our easternmost zones.

&&

.Prev Discussion [618 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
A large upper trough moving over the region tonight will continue
to intensify the surface low pressure area east of the Florida
Peninsula. There may be just enough lift and moisture remaining in
the evening to lead to a few light showers across the eastern
areas. Temperatures overnight will be cool but the presence of
some cloud cover and light northerly winds should be enough to
keep temperatures just above freezing.

On Sunday, weak shortwave ridging aloft will build over the region
with surface high pressure off to the southwest of the area.
Expect a dry day with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

By Monday, the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will amplify
considerably as a large upper low drops out of Canada and moves
toward the Ohio River Valley by Monday afternoon. At the surface a
dry cold front will surge across the area, starting a stretch of
breezy and chilly temperatures through mid week.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The upper low will remain centered over the Ohio River Valley
through Wednesday before lifting out into the Mid Atlantic on
Wednesday night. This first half of the long term period should
be quite chilly with high temperatures on Tuesday struggling to
reach 50 in North Florida and in the mid 40s in South
Georgia/Alabama. The system is expected to be moisture-starved,
thus precip chances are 10 percent or less through the first half
of the period.

By Thursday, surface high pressure to the northeast of the region
will allow for light southerly flow to return some moisture and
for afternoon temperatures to warm back into the 60s. Beyond
Friday, forecast confidence decreases considerably due to drastic
model differences. The 06/00z GFS suggests a continuation of the
warming trend into the weekend, while the 06/00z Euro brings
another blast of cooler and drier air to the region. For now, have
split the difference between these two solutions, which
effectively is a climo forecast for mid February.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will remain throughout the TAF cycle. Some low
clouds (3K to 4K feet) are moving in and will remain mainly in the
eastern half of the region. Rain is possible in the VLD area
mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be
light and northerly.


.Marine...
Moderate offshore winds will increase to at least cautionary
levels tonight as a low pressure system develops off the Florida
East Coast. After a brief lull in winds on Sunday night, a rapid
increase in winds and seas will occur on Monday behind a dry cold
front. A period of advisory conditions, with gale conditions
possible, will begin Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday
afternoon.


.Fire Weather...
Dry air will be in place for the next several days. RH values are
expected to remain above critical thresholds for red flag criteria.
No fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...
Several river forecast points are above flood stage this morning,
with a couple of additional locations forecast to reach flood
stage in the next couple of days.

The Choctawhatchee has crested at Geneva, so the river should
crest at Caryville in the next 36 hours. Expect Bruce to begin
rising more steadily today, and exceed moderate flood stage by
tonight.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River, releases from Walter F
George have stabilized around 45 kcfs. With the Flint contribution
forecast to near 35 kfcs at Bainbridge by Sunday, releases from
Woodruff will remain in the 80-85kcfs range for at least the next
couple of days. As a result, downstream river levels at
Blountstown will continue to increase. Expect an eventual crest in
the next 48 hours in the 21-21.5 foot range.

Minor flooding will continue in the upper portion of the
Withlacoochee River basin near Valdosta. The US-84 crossing will
move above minor flood stage tonight. In the next 48 hours, the
contribution from the Little River will reach peak discharge into
the Withlacoochee near Valdosta. The latest projection suggests a
crest at the US-84 gauge Tuesday night in the 106.5-108 foot
range - or just below the moderate flood level.

The Ochlockonee River is also steadily rising at Thomasville and
should rise above minor flood stage later today. The Florida
portion of the river will approach flood stage Monday night into
Tuesday at CR-12/Concord.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   55  33  60  37  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   57  38  58  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        56  33  58  38  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        54  31  58  37  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      51  35  58  36  61 /  30  20   0   0  10
Cross City    56  36  59  38  64 /  30  20   0   0  10
Apalachicola  57  37  59  45  62 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



000
FXUS62 KTAE 061540
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1040 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Satellite and area metars reveal extensive cloud cover mainly
along and east of the river late Saturday morning. Despite the
clouds, A few locations across our easternmost zones, including
Valdosta, have already reached the forecast max temp so made
upward adjustments. Western zones may see a bit more sun than
earlier expected as the western progress of the low level clouds
have slowed considerably. Made adjustments there for sky cover as
well as temps. Also, trimmed back slightly on PoPs for this
afternoon over our easternmost zones.

&&

.Prev Discussion [618 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
A large upper trough moving over the region tonight will continue
to intensify the surface low pressure area east of the Florida
Peninsula. There may be just enough lift and moisture remaining in
the evening to lead to a few light showers across the eastern
areas. Temperatures overnight will be cool but the presence of
some cloud cover and light northerly winds should be enough to
keep temperatures just above freezing.

On Sunday, weak shortwave ridging aloft will build over the region
with surface high pressure off to the southwest of the area.
Expect a dry day with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

By Monday, the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will amplify
considerably as a large upper low drops out of Canada and moves
toward the Ohio River Valley by Monday afternoon. At the surface a
dry cold front will surge across the area, starting a stretch of
breezy and chilly temperatures through mid week.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The upper low will remain centered over the Ohio River Valley
through Wednesday before lifting out into the Mid Atlantic on
Wednesday night. This first half of the long term period should
be quite chilly with high temperatures on Tuesday struggling to
reach 50 in North Florida and in the mid 40s in South
Georgia/Alabama. The system is expected to be moisture-starved,
thus precip chances are 10 percent or less through the first half
of the period.

By Thursday, surface high pressure to the northeast of the region
will allow for light southerly flow to return some moisture and
for afternoon temperatures to warm back into the 60s. Beyond
Friday, forecast confidence decreases considerably due to drastic
model differences. The 06/00z GFS suggests a continuation of the
warming trend into the weekend, while the 06/00z Euro brings
another blast of cooler and drier air to the region. For now, have
split the difference between these two solutions, which
effectively is a climo forecast for mid February.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will remain throughout the TAF cycle. Some low
clouds (3K to 4K feet) are moving in and will remain mainly in the
eastern half of the region. Rain is possible in the VLD area
mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be
light and northerly.


.Marine...
Moderate offshore winds will increase to at least cautionary
levels tonight as a low pressure system develops off the Florida
East Coast. After a brief lull in winds on Sunday night, a rapid
increase in winds and seas will occur on Monday behind a dry cold
front. A period of advisory conditions, with gale conditions
possible, will begin Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday
afternoon.


.Fire Weather...
Dry air will be in place for the next several days. RH values are
expected to remain above critical thresholds for red flag criteria.
No fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...
Several river forecast points are above flood stage this morning,
with a couple of additional locations forecast to reach flood
stage in the next couple of days.

The Choctawhatchee has crested at Geneva, so the river should
crest at Caryville in the next 36 hours. Expect Bruce to begin
rising more steadily today, and exceed moderate flood stage by
tonight.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River, releases from Walter F
George have stabilized around 45 kcfs. With the Flint contribution
forecast to near 35 kfcs at Bainbridge by Sunday, releases from
Woodruff will remain in the 80-85kcfs range for at least the next
couple of days. As a result, downstream river levels at
Blountstown will continue to increase. Expect an eventual crest in
the next 48 hours in the 21-21.5 foot range.

Minor flooding will continue in the upper portion of the
Withlacoochee River basin near Valdosta. The US-84 crossing will
move above minor flood stage tonight. In the next 48 hours, the
contribution from the Little River will reach peak discharge into
the Withlacoochee near Valdosta. The latest projection suggests a
crest at the US-84 gauge Tuesday night in the 106.5-108 foot
range - or just below the moderate flood level.

The Ochlockonee River is also steadily rising at Thomasville and
should rise above minor flood stage later today. The Florida
portion of the river will approach flood stage Monday night into
Tuesday at CR-12/Concord.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   55  33  60  37  62 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   57  38  58  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        56  33  58  38  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        54  31  58  37  57 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      51  35  58  36  61 /  30  20   0   0  10
Cross City    56  36  59  38  64 /  30  20   0   0  10
Apalachicola  57  37  59  45  62 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KKEY 061537
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION OF THE UNITED STATES.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS STRENGTHENING OFF OF FLORIDA`S ATLANTIC COAST HAS
HELPED TO OPEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS A RESULT...SURFACE WINDS
HAVE RELAXED...AND ARE NOW GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. SOME SUNSHINE
THIS MORNING ALONG WITH THE WARMER FLOW HAS BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...AND DEW POINTS ARE UP IN THE MID 60S. LOWER
LEVEL ASCENT IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ASCENT IS AIDING IN THE MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZING OF THE MID LEVELS. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO OUR
GULF SIDE WATERS. THUS FAR...ONLY LIGHT RAIN HAS AFFECTED PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN UNDER HIGHLY CHANGEABLE SKIES.

SHORT TERM UPDATE - THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...AND INTO FLORIDA
TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN LOW LEVEL LIFT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. AS A RESULT...SKY COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE KEYS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHES OF RAIN TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY INCREASE A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE EARLY
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS KEYS
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY VERY LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING AND TURN
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS WATERS TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. WINDS ARE EXPECT TO BE STRONGEST TOMORROW MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WETTER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE...AND EXPECT LIGHT RAIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE IN
INTENSITY. WITH THAT SAID...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL...DESPITE THE INCOMING LIGHT RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...TURNING NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
STILL ON TRACK TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KJAX 061516
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1016 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING ONLY SHOWED A THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE...WITH A VERY STEEP INVERSION AROUND 7KFT. SHOWERS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE COAST...SO LOWERED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
AS THEY WERE ALREADY NEAR OR AT THE FORECAST HIGHS. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA BEGINS TO
WRAP UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE NAM IS STILL ADVERTISING A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. WILL LEAVE THE GRIDS AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW AND WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO SEE IF OTHER
MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY CIGS OVER NE FL/SE GA ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 KFT. AS NNE
WINDS AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INCREASES...EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE
TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 16Z AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AS RAIN INCREASES. HAVE VCSH 17Z-00Z MAINLY
NEAR THE EAST COAST TODAY AS COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL
BECOMING PREVAILING AFTER 00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GNV WHERE RAIN
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS. NORTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NE
COAST WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS ALREADY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NNE WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO
AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMING OFF THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE
SE FL COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NE. HAVE
UPGRADED GALE TO A WARNING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  37  57  35 /  30  30  10   0
SSI  53  38  52  41 /  40  60  30   0
JAX  54  41  54  37 /  40  60  10   0
SGJ  59  41  54  42 /  50  60  10   0
GNV  56  39  57  36 /  50  50   0   0
OCF  60  40  57  37 /  50  40   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/KENNEDY/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 061516
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1016 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING ONLY SHOWED A THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE...WITH A VERY STEEP INVERSION AROUND 7KFT. SHOWERS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE COAST...SO LOWERED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
AS THEY WERE ALREADY NEAR OR AT THE FORECAST HIGHS. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA BEGINS TO
WRAP UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE NAM IS STILL ADVERTISING A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. WILL LEAVE THE GRIDS AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW AND WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO SEE IF OTHER
MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY CIGS OVER NE FL/SE GA ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 KFT. AS NNE
WINDS AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INCREASES...EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE
TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 16Z AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AS RAIN INCREASES. HAVE VCSH 17Z-00Z MAINLY
NEAR THE EAST COAST TODAY AS COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL
BECOMING PREVAILING AFTER 00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GNV WHERE RAIN
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS. NORTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NE
COAST WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS ALREADY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NNE WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO
AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMING OFF THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE
SE FL COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NE. HAVE
UPGRADED GALE TO A WARNING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  37  57  35 /  30  30  10   0
SSI  53  38  52  41 /  40  60  30   0
JAX  54  41  54  37 /  40  60  10   0
SGJ  59  41  54  42 /  50  60  10   0
GNV  56  39  57  36 /  50  50   0   0
OCF  60  40  57  37 /  50  40   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/KENNEDY/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 061516
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1016 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING ONLY SHOWED A THIN LAYER OF
MOISTURE...WITH A VERY STEEP INVERSION AROUND 7KFT. SHOWERS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE COAST...SO LOWERED POPS
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS...AND BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST
AS THEY WERE ALREADY NEAR OR AT THE FORECAST HIGHS. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA BEGINS TO
WRAP UP AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
AND INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE NAM IS STILL ADVERTISING A POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. WILL LEAVE THE GRIDS AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW AND WILL TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT THIS FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE TO SEE IF OTHER
MODELS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY CIGS OVER NE FL/SE GA ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 6 KFT. AS NNE
WINDS AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INCREASES...EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE
TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE REGION AFTER 16Z AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AS RAIN INCREASES. HAVE VCSH 17Z-00Z MAINLY
NEAR THE EAST COAST TODAY AS COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL
BECOMING PREVAILING AFTER 00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GNV WHERE RAIN
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS. NORTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NE
COAST WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KNOTS ALREADY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN 10-18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NNE WINDS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO
AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMING OFF THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE
SE FL COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NE. HAVE
UPGRADED GALE TO A WARNING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  37  57  35 /  30  30  10   0
SSI  53  38  52  41 /  40  60  30   0
JAX  54  41  54  37 /  40  60  10   0
SGJ  59  41  54  42 /  50  60  10   0
GNV  56  39  57  36 /  50  50   0   0
OCF  60  40  57  37 /  50  40   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/KENNEDY/COMBS



000
FXUS62 KMLB 061451 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING
ADJUSTING SKY COVER SOME BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FOR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF. NUDGED SHOWER CHANCES UP
SLIGHTLY TO 40 PCT NRN AREAS BASED ON EXPECTED COVERAGE INCREASE
FROM 4 PM TO 7 PM TIME FRAME. ALSO CONSIDERED VERY LOW THUNDER
RISK THIS EVENING FOR MARTIN COUNTY AREA. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
ADDED THUNDER TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR NRN SECTIONS AND INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR SRN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS MOST IN THE 050-070 RANGE WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SHRA COVERAGE INCREASING FROM 19Z-23Z
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KMCO-KTIX. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
PEAK THIS EVENING 00Z-04Z THIS EVENING AS S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE KVRB-KSUA
CORRIDOR. INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WIND AFT 08Z TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS PSBL ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN INTO SUNDAY OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE. FOR MID
MORNING UPDATE WILL TRANSITION SCA FOR SEAS TO AN EXERCISE CAUTION.
STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES FOR TONIGHTS HEADLINES...WITH GALE WARNING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 061451 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING
ADJUSTING SKY COVER SOME BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FOR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF. NUDGED SHOWER CHANCES UP
SLIGHTLY TO 40 PCT NRN AREAS BASED ON EXPECTED COVERAGE INCREASE
FROM 4 PM TO 7 PM TIME FRAME. ALSO CONSIDERED VERY LOW THUNDER
RISK THIS EVENING FOR MARTIN COUNTY AREA. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
ADDED THUNDER TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR NRN SECTIONS AND INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR SRN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS MOST IN THE 050-070 RANGE WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SHRA COVERAGE INCREASING FROM 19Z-23Z
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KMCO-KTIX. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
PEAK THIS EVENING 00Z-04Z THIS EVENING AS S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE KVRB-KSUA
CORRIDOR. INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WIND AFT 08Z TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS PSBL ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN INTO SUNDAY OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE. FOR MID
MORNING UPDATE WILL TRANSITION SCA FOR SEAS TO AN EXERCISE CAUTION.
STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES FOR TONIGHTS HEADLINES...WITH GALE WARNING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMLB 061451 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
951 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR MORNING UPDATE INCLUDING
ADJUSTING SKY COVER SOME BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. STILL
APPEARS MOST AREAS WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FOR MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF. NUDGED SHOWER CHANCES UP
SLIGHTLY TO 40 PCT NRN AREAS BASED ON EXPECTED COVERAGE INCREASE
FROM 4 PM TO 7 PM TIME FRAME. ALSO CONSIDERED VERY LOW THUNDER
RISK THIS EVENING FOR MARTIN COUNTY AREA. AT THIS POINT...HAVE
ADDED THUNDER TO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM WATERS
WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD RESIDE AS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR NRN SECTIONS AND INTO THE
LOWER 70S FOR SRN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS MOST IN THE 050-070 RANGE WILL CONTINUE
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SHRA COVERAGE INCREASING FROM 19Z-23Z
MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KMCO-KTIX. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
PEAK THIS EVENING 00Z-04Z THIS EVENING AS S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
AND COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS IN THE KVRB-KSUA
CORRIDOR. INCREASINGLY GUSTY NW WIND AFT 08Z TONIGHT WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KNOTS PSBL ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP AND DEEPEN INTO SUNDAY OFFSHORE.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE. FOR MID
MORNING UPDATE WILL TRANSITION SCA FOR SEAS TO AN EXERCISE CAUTION.
STRONGER WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT BEHIND LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING
OFFSHORE. NO CHANGES FOR TONIGHTS HEADLINES...WITH GALE WARNING
FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMFL 061438
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
WEAK TROUGH MARKING THE LAND/SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST AND DOWN ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA/FLORIDA KEYS. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THIS MORNING AND THIS IS WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN FROM THE SW/W AS FORCING INCREASES FROM
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
EXISTING BOUNDARY NEAR THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND OFFSHORE COULD ACT
AS FOCUS FOR A FEW TSTMS OVER THE WATER, THEREFORE WILL ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT ONE
OR TWO TSTMS COULD REACH THE COAST, BUT INSTABILITY IS NOT
TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE OVER LAND. THUS, WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE
LAND AREAS AND WILL RE-EVALUATE THIS AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

AVIATION...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE TODAY AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF OUR EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN CLEARING/DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM FLORIDA. INCREASING
MVFR CIGS LATER TODAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY, PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS PARTICULARLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRYING KICKS IN. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW ON THIS OCCURRING, DECIDED TO THROW IN A SCT DECK OF
AROUND 1 KFT AND BKN015 AT ALL SITES AND REVISIT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL BE NE 5-10 KTS ALL SITES TODAY BACKING TO
THE NW THIS EVENING AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE TO OUR EAST. PS/RM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION ON FRIDAY HAS
STALLED OUT OVER CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING, LEAVING
SOUTH FL IN SHALLOW N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY
CURRENTLY, BUT FLOW WILL BACK S-SW INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION.

THE FORMER SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG IT, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY TAKES OFF TO
THE NE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

BASED ON CURRENT TIMING, BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE JUST TO OUR EAST AND WE GET ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY BEING IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING AND APPROACHING UPPER JET
MAXES.

GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY, AND WITH LITTLE TIME TO MODIFY THE COOL/DRY
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL. IT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS, BUT
THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE KEEPING IT TO THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY TAKING OFF INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WITH IT. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIP
OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS FAR ENOUGH
AWAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH ENHANCED COLD AIR STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW-MID 60S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN
GLADES/HIGHLANDS POSSIBLY NOT REACHING 60.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S, EVEN ALONG THE EAST COAST. COLDEST
AREAS ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, AND NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTIES MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S. IF THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AND WINDS DROP OFF, THIS MAY BRING PATCHY FROST CONCERNS
OVER THE INTERIOR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

NEXT WEEK...A PREVAILING COOL, AND GENERALLY DRY, PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US. DESPITE LARGE TROUGH, THE JET STREAM
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE US
WELL NORTH OF FLORIDA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MANAGES TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES, BUT MODELS REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED ABOUT DEEP
MOISTURE OR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. INSTEAD THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
EAST COAST TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARDS VEERS FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST.

MARINE...N-NE WINDS TODAY AROUND 10-15KTS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS AS OLD FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE IN THE
DAY. GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW AROUND 20KTS
OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25KTS OVER ALL THE
WATERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NE AND
BRINGS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 15-20KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING WEST 10-15KTS INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION.

SEAS 2-4FT IN THE GULF AND 4-6FT IN THE ATLANTIC TODAY, HIGHEST IN
THE GULF STREAM. NW WIND SURGE BEHIND FRONT LATE TONIGHT QUICKLY
BUILDS SEAS TO 10-12FT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF AND 7-10FT IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS INTO SUNDAY. GULF WATERS QUICKLY DROP TO 2-3FT ON
MONDAY AFTER WINDS SUBSIDE. HIGHER SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS FROM THE
DEPARTED LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. BASED ON
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS, THE RESULTING SURF HEIGHTS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  52  63  40 /  50  90  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  55  63  43 /  60  90  10   0
MIAMI            77  56  64  44 /  60  90  10   0
NAPLES           68  54  62  43 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KTBW 061424
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.MORNING UPDATE...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROLL EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TEXARKANA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THIS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS...ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL SET IN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WITH VIRTUALLY NO
INSTABILITY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY THUNDER TODAY. THOUGH
PERHAPS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
AN APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL INDUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOWERED CIGS LOOK TO BUILD IN BY 18Z TO 20Z...AND PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN MARGINAL...WITH LITTLE TO SUPPORT HEAVIER RAIN OR THUNDER.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF TODAY. AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WATERS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING WINDS. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...BRINGING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY. A PROLONGED STRETCH OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO TAKE SHAPE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  45  58  45 /  40  30  10   0
FMY  67  51  62  43 /  50  50  10   0
GIF  64  44  59  42 /  50  60  10   0
SRQ  61  50  58  44 /  40  30  10   0
BKV  59  42  56  36 /  40  40   0   0
SPG  59  47  57  47 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING



000
FXUS62 KTBW 061424
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.MORNING UPDATE...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROLL EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TEXARKANA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THIS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS...ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL SET IN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WITH VIRTUALLY NO
INSTABILITY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY THUNDER TODAY. THOUGH
PERHAPS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
AN APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL INDUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOWERED CIGS LOOK TO BUILD IN BY 18Z TO 20Z...AND PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN MARGINAL...WITH LITTLE TO SUPPORT HEAVIER RAIN OR THUNDER.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF TODAY. AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WATERS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING WINDS. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...BRINGING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY. A PROLONGED STRETCH OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO TAKE SHAPE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  45  58  45 /  40  30  10   0
FMY  67  51  62  43 /  50  50  10   0
GIF  64  44  59  42 /  50  60  10   0
SRQ  61  50  58  44 /  40  30  10   0
BKV  59  42  56  36 /  40  40   0   0
SPG  59  47  57  47 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING



000
FXUS62 KTBW 061424
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.MORNING UPDATE...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROLL EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TEXARKANA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THIS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS...ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL SET IN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WITH VIRTUALLY NO
INSTABILITY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY THUNDER TODAY. THOUGH
PERHAPS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
AN APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL INDUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOWERED CIGS LOOK TO BUILD IN BY 18Z TO 20Z...AND PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN MARGINAL...WITH LITTLE TO SUPPORT HEAVIER RAIN OR THUNDER.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF TODAY. AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WATERS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING WINDS. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...BRINGING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY. A PROLONGED STRETCH OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO TAKE SHAPE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  45  58  45 /  40  30  10   0
FMY  67  51  62  43 /  50  50  10   0
GIF  64  44  59  42 /  50  60  10   0
SRQ  61  50  58  44 /  40  30  10   0
BKV  59  42  56  36 /  40  40   0   0
SPG  59  47  57  47 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING



000
FXUS62 KTBW 061424
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.MORNING UPDATE...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROLL EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TEXARKANA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THIS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS...ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL SET IN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WITH VIRTUALLY NO
INSTABILITY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY THUNDER TODAY. THOUGH
PERHAPS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
AN APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL INDUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOWERED CIGS LOOK TO BUILD IN BY 18Z TO 20Z...AND PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN MARGINAL...WITH LITTLE TO SUPPORT HEAVIER RAIN OR THUNDER.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF TODAY. AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WATERS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING WINDS. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...BRINGING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY. A PROLONGED STRETCH OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO TAKE SHAPE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  45  58  45 /  40  30  10   0
FMY  67  51  62  43 /  50  50  10   0
GIF  64  44  59  42 /  50  60  10   0
SRQ  61  50  58  44 /  40  30  10   0
BKV  59  42  56  36 /  40  40   0   0
SPG  59  47  57  47 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING



000
FXUS62 KTBW 061424
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
924 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.MORNING UPDATE...
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROLL EASTWARD ACROSS THE
TEXARKANA REGION THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE IMPRESSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

AN AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS THIS MORNING. WHILE ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PREVENT MUCH OF THIS FROM REACHING THE
GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER
WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. FOR THIS...ADJUSTED
POPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH THIS AREA OF SHOWERS EVENTUALLY MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON
TRACK. EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL SET IN BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND
SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WITH VIRTUALLY NO
INSTABILITY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY THUNDER TODAY. THOUGH
PERHAPS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL WILL EXIST ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...
AN APPROACHING UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL INDUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CIGS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY.
LOWERED CIGS LOOK TO BUILD IN BY 18Z TO 20Z...AND PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VSBY LIMITATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN MARGINAL...WITH LITTLE TO SUPPORT HEAVIER RAIN OR THUNDER.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE FIRST
PART OF TODAY. AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
REGION...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
WATERS...WITH SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING WINDS. THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...A STRONG FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS...BRINGING
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASED SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD
SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...BUT QUICKLY INCREASE AGAIN LATE
MONDAY. A PROLONGED STRETCH OF CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY LEVEL
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO TAKE SHAPE FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  45  58  45 /  40  30  10   0
FMY  67  51  62  43 /  50  50  10   0
GIF  64  44  59  42 /  50  60  10   0
SRQ  61  50  58  44 /  40  30  10   0
BKV  59  42  56  36 /  40  40   0   0
SPG  59  47  57  47 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...84/AUSTIN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...72/NOAH
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KMFL 061139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE TODAY AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF OUR EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN CLEARING/DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM FLORIDA. INCREASING
MVFR CIGS LATER TODAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY, PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS PARTICULARLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRYING KICKS IN. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW ON THIS OCCURRING, DECIDED TO THROW IN A SCT DECK OF
AROUND 1 KFT AND BKN015 AT ALL SITES AND REVISIT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL BE NE 5-10 KTS ALL SITES TODAY BACKING TO
THE NW THIS EVENING AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE TO OUR EAST. PS/RM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION ON FRIDAY HAS
STALLED OUT OVER CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING, LEAVING
SOUTH FL IN SHALLOW N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY
CURRENTLY, BUT FLOW WILL BACK S-SW INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION.

THE FORMER SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG IT, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY TAKES OFF TO
THE NE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

BASED ON CURRENT TIMING, BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE JUST TO OUR EAST AND WE GET ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY BEING IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING AND APPROACHING UPPER JET
MAXES.

GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY, AND WITH LITTLE TIME TO MODIFY THE COOL/DRY
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL. IT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS, BUT
THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE KEEPING IT TO THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY TAKING OFF INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WITH IT. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIP
OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS FAR ENOUGH
AWAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH ENHANCED COLD AIR STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW-MID 60S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN
GLADES/HIGHLANDS POSSIBLY NOT REACHING 60.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S, EVEN ALONG THE EAST COAST. COLDEST
AREAS ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, AND NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTIES MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S. IF THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AND WINDS DROP OFF, THIS MAY BRING PATCHY FROST CONCERNS
OVER THE INTERIOR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

NEXT WEEK...A PREVAILING COOL, AND GENERALLY DRY, PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US. DESPITE LARGE TROUGH, THE JET STREAM
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE US
WELL NORTH OF FLORIDA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MANAGES TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES, BUT MODELS REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED ABOUT DEEP
MOISTURE OR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. INSTEAD THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
EAST COAST TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARDS VEERS FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST.

MARINE...N-NE WINDS TODAY AROUND 10-15KTS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS AS OLD FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE IN THE
DAY. GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW AROUND 20KTS
OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25KTS OVER ALL THE
WATERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NE AND
BRINGS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 15-20KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING WEST 10-15KTS INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION.

SEAS 2-4FT IN THE GULF AND 4-6FT IN THE ATLANTIC TODAY, HIGHEST IN
THE GULF STREAM. NW WIND SURGE BEHIND FRONT LATE TONIGHT QUICKLY
BUILDS SEAS TO 10-12FT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF AND 7-10FT IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS INTO SUNDAY. GULF WATERS QUICKLY DROP TO 2-3FT ON
MONDAY AFTER WINDS SUBSIDE. HIGHER SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS FROM THE
DEPARTED LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. BASED ON
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS, THE RESULTING SURF HEIGHTS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  52  63  40 /  50  90  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  55  63  43 /  60  90  10   0
MIAMI            77  56  64  44 /  60  90  10   0
NAPLES           68  54  62  43 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 061139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE TODAY AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF OUR EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN CLEARING/DRYING OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES AWAY FROM FLORIDA. INCREASING
MVFR CIGS LATER TODAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY, PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS PARTICULARLY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRYING KICKS IN. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER LOW ON THIS OCCURRING, DECIDED TO THROW IN A SCT DECK OF
AROUND 1 KFT AND BKN015 AT ALL SITES AND REVISIT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WINDS WILL BE NE 5-10 KTS ALL SITES TODAY BACKING TO
THE NW THIS EVENING AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS FRONTOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE TO OUR EAST. PS/RM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION ON FRIDAY HAS
STALLED OUT OVER CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING, LEAVING
SOUTH FL IN SHALLOW N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY
CURRENTLY, BUT FLOW WILL BACK S-SW INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION.

THE FORMER SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG IT, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY TAKES OFF TO
THE NE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

BASED ON CURRENT TIMING, BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE JUST TO OUR EAST AND WE GET ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY BEING IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING AND APPROACHING UPPER JET
MAXES.

GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY, AND WITH LITTLE TIME TO MODIFY THE COOL/DRY
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL. IT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS, BUT
THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE KEEPING IT TO THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY TAKING OFF INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WITH IT. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIP
OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS FAR ENOUGH
AWAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH ENHANCED COLD AIR STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW-MID 60S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN
GLADES/HIGHLANDS POSSIBLY NOT REACHING 60.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S, EVEN ALONG THE EAST COAST. COLDEST
AREAS ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, AND NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTIES MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S. IF THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AND WINDS DROP OFF, THIS MAY BRING PATCHY FROST CONCERNS
OVER THE INTERIOR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

NEXT WEEK...A PREVAILING COOL, AND GENERALLY DRY, PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US. DESPITE LARGE TROUGH, THE JET STREAM
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE US
WELL NORTH OF FLORIDA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MANAGES TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES, BUT MODELS REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED ABOUT DEEP
MOISTURE OR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. INSTEAD THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
EAST COAST TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARDS VEERS FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST.

MARINE...N-NE WINDS TODAY AROUND 10-15KTS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS AS OLD FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE IN THE
DAY. GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW AROUND 20KTS
OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25KTS OVER ALL THE
WATERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NE AND
BRINGS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 15-20KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING WEST 10-15KTS INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION.

SEAS 2-4FT IN THE GULF AND 4-6FT IN THE ATLANTIC TODAY, HIGHEST IN
THE GULF STREAM. NW WIND SURGE BEHIND FRONT LATE TONIGHT QUICKLY
BUILDS SEAS TO 10-12FT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF AND 7-10FT IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS INTO SUNDAY. GULF WATERS QUICKLY DROP TO 2-3FT ON
MONDAY AFTER WINDS SUBSIDE. HIGHER SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS FROM THE
DEPARTED LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. BASED ON
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS, THE RESULTING SURF HEIGHTS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  52  63  40 /  50  90  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  55  63  43 /  60  90  10   0
MIAMI            77  56  64  44 /  60  90  10   0
NAPLES           68  54  62  43 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KTAE 061118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
618 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will remain throughout the TAF cycle. Some low
clouds (3K to 4K feet) are moving in and will remain mainly in the
eastern half of the region. Rain is possible in the VLD area
mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be
light and northerly.

&&

.Prev Discussion [338 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A low is expected to form over south Florida today and quickly move
northeast and strengthen. Wrap around moisture is expected to move
in to the region on the backside of this low. That means increasing
clouds today especially for the eastern half of the region. There is
even a chance for an afternoon/evening shower for the eastern Big
Bend and south central Georgia (POPs 20 to 35 percent). Cloud cover
will keep afternoon highs lower in the eastern half of the region
with upper 40s expected near the Valdosta area. Elsewhere highs
will be in the 50s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
A large upper trough moving over the region tonight will continue
to intensify the surface low pressure area east of the Florida
Peninsula. There may be just enough lift and moisture remaining in
the evening to lead to a few light showers across the eastern
areas. Temperatures overnight will be cool but the presence of
some cloud cover and light northerly winds should be enough to
keep temperatures just above freezing.

On Sunday, weak shortwave ridging aloft will build over the region
with surface high pressure off to the southwest of the area.
Expect a dry day with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

By Monday, the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will amplify
considerably as a large upper low drops out of Canada and moves
toward the Ohio River Valley by Monday afternoon. At the surface a
dry cold front will surge across the area, starting a stretch of
breezy and chilly temperatures through mid week.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The upper low will remain centered over the Ohio River Valley
through Wednesday before lifting out into the Mid Atlantic on
Wednesday night. This first half of the long term period should
be quite chilly with high temperatures on Tuesday struggling to
reach 50 in North Florida and in the mid 40s in South
Georgia/Alabama. The system is expected to be moisture-starved,
thus precip chances are 10 percent or less through the first half
of the period.

By Thursday, surface high pressure to the northeast of the region
will allow for light southerly flow to return some moisture and
for afternoon temperatures to warm back into the 60s. Beyond
Friday, forecast confidence decreases considerably due to drastic
model differences. The 06/00z GFS suggests a continuation of the
warming trend into the weekend, while the 06/00z Euro brings
another blast of cooler and drier air to the region. For now, have
split the difference between these two solutions, which
effectively is a climo forecast for mid February.


.Marine...
Moderate offshore winds will increase to at least cautionary
levels tonight as a low pressure system develops off the Florida
East Coast. After a brief lull in winds on Sunday night, a rapid
increase in winds and seas will occur on Monday behind a dry cold
front. A period of advisory conditions, with gale conditions
possible, will begin Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday
afternoon.


.Fire Weather...
Dry air will be in place for the next several days. RH values are
expected to remain above critical thresholds for red flag criteria.
No fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...
Several river forecast points are above flood stage this morning,
with a couple of additional locations forecast to reach flood
stage in the next couple of days.

The Choctawhatchee has crested at Geneva, so the river should
crest at Caryville in the next 36 hours. Expect Bruce to begin
rising more steadily today, and exceed moderate flood stage by
tonight.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River, releases from Walter F
George have stabilized around 45 kcfs. With the Flint contribution
forecast to near 35 kfcs at Bainbridge by Sunday, releases from
Woodruff will remain in the 80-85kcfs range for at least the next
couple of days. As a result, downstream river levels at
Blountstown will continue to increase. Expect an eventual crest in
the next 48 hours in the 21-21.5 foot range.

Minor flooding will continue in the upper portion of the
Withlacoochee River basin near Valdosta. The US-84 crossing will
move above minor flood stage tonight. In the next 48 hours, the
contribution from the Little River will reach peak discharge into
the Withlacoochee near Valdosta. The latest projection suggests a
crest at the US-84 gauge Tuesday night in the 106.5-108 foot
range - or just below the moderate flood level.

The Ochlockonee River is also steadily rising at Thomasville and
should rise above minor flood stage later today. The Florida
portion of the river will approach flood stage Monday night into
Tuesday at CR-12/Concord.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  33  60  37  62 /  10  10   0   0  10
Panama City   56  38  58  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        54  33  58  38  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        55  31  58  37  57 /  10  10   0   0  10
Valdosta      47  35  58  36  61 /  30  30   0   0  10
Cross City    56  36  59  38  64 /  30  30   0   0  10
Apalachicola  58  37  59  45  62 /   0  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 061118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
618 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will remain throughout the TAF cycle. Some low
clouds (3K to 4K feet) are moving in and will remain mainly in the
eastern half of the region. Rain is possible in the VLD area
mainly in the late afternoon and evening hours. Winds will be
light and northerly.

&&

.Prev Discussion [338 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A low is expected to form over south Florida today and quickly move
northeast and strengthen. Wrap around moisture is expected to move
in to the region on the backside of this low. That means increasing
clouds today especially for the eastern half of the region. There is
even a chance for an afternoon/evening shower for the eastern Big
Bend and south central Georgia (POPs 20 to 35 percent). Cloud cover
will keep afternoon highs lower in the eastern half of the region
with upper 40s expected near the Valdosta area. Elsewhere highs
will be in the 50s.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
A large upper trough moving over the region tonight will continue
to intensify the surface low pressure area east of the Florida
Peninsula. There may be just enough lift and moisture remaining in
the evening to lead to a few light showers across the eastern
areas. Temperatures overnight will be cool but the presence of
some cloud cover and light northerly winds should be enough to
keep temperatures just above freezing.

On Sunday, weak shortwave ridging aloft will build over the region
with surface high pressure off to the southwest of the area.
Expect a dry day with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

By Monday, the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will amplify
considerably as a large upper low drops out of Canada and moves
toward the Ohio River Valley by Monday afternoon. At the surface a
dry cold front will surge across the area, starting a stretch of
breezy and chilly temperatures through mid week.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The upper low will remain centered over the Ohio River Valley
through Wednesday before lifting out into the Mid Atlantic on
Wednesday night. This first half of the long term period should
be quite chilly with high temperatures on Tuesday struggling to
reach 50 in North Florida and in the mid 40s in South
Georgia/Alabama. The system is expected to be moisture-starved,
thus precip chances are 10 percent or less through the first half
of the period.

By Thursday, surface high pressure to the northeast of the region
will allow for light southerly flow to return some moisture and
for afternoon temperatures to warm back into the 60s. Beyond
Friday, forecast confidence decreases considerably due to drastic
model differences. The 06/00z GFS suggests a continuation of the
warming trend into the weekend, while the 06/00z Euro brings
another blast of cooler and drier air to the region. For now, have
split the difference between these two solutions, which
effectively is a climo forecast for mid February.


.Marine...
Moderate offshore winds will increase to at least cautionary
levels tonight as a low pressure system develops off the Florida
East Coast. After a brief lull in winds on Sunday night, a rapid
increase in winds and seas will occur on Monday behind a dry cold
front. A period of advisory conditions, with gale conditions
possible, will begin Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday
afternoon.


.Fire Weather...
Dry air will be in place for the next several days. RH values are
expected to remain above critical thresholds for red flag criteria.
No fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...
Several river forecast points are above flood stage this morning,
with a couple of additional locations forecast to reach flood
stage in the next couple of days.

The Choctawhatchee has crested at Geneva, so the river should
crest at Caryville in the next 36 hours. Expect Bruce to begin
rising more steadily today, and exceed moderate flood stage by
tonight.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River, releases from Walter F
George have stabilized around 45 kcfs. With the Flint contribution
forecast to near 35 kfcs at Bainbridge by Sunday, releases from
Woodruff will remain in the 80-85kcfs range for at least the next
couple of days. As a result, downstream river levels at
Blountstown will continue to increase. Expect an eventual crest in
the next 48 hours in the 21-21.5 foot range.

Minor flooding will continue in the upper portion of the
Withlacoochee River basin near Valdosta. The US-84 crossing will
move above minor flood stage tonight. In the next 48 hours, the
contribution from the Little River will reach peak discharge into
the Withlacoochee near Valdosta. The latest projection suggests a
crest at the US-84 gauge Tuesday night in the 106.5-108 foot
range - or just below the moderate flood level.

The Ochlockonee River is also steadily rising at Thomasville and
should rise above minor flood stage later today. The Florida
portion of the river will approach flood stage Monday night into
Tuesday at CR-12/Concord.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  33  60  37  62 /  10  10   0   0  10
Panama City   56  38  58  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        54  33  58  38  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        55  31  58  37  57 /  10  10   0   0  10
Valdosta      47  35  58  36  61 /  30  30   0   0  10
Cross City    56  36  59  38  64 /  30  30   0   0  10
Apalachicola  58  37  59  45  62 /   0  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KMFL 060914
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
414 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION ON FRIDAY HAS
STALLED OUT OVER CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS MORNING, LEAVING
SOUTH FL IN SHALLOW N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY
CURRENTLY, BUT FLOW WILL BACK S-SW INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING THE DAY ALLOWING
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTION.

THE FORMER SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SOME ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG IT, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT AND QUICKLY TAKES OFF TO
THE NE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

BASED ON CURRENT TIMING, BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO
TAKE SHAPE JUST TO OUR EAST AND WE GET ENHANCED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY BEING IN THE
FAVORABLE REGION BETWEEN THE DEPARTING AND APPROACHING UPPER JET
MAXES.

GIVEN THE TIME OF DAY, AND WITH LITTLE TIME TO MODIFY THE COOL/DRY
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, INSTABILITY LOOKS MINIMAL. IT MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A STORM OR TWO TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS, BUT
THREAT IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE KEEPING IT TO THE FORECAST.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY TAKING OFF INTO THE OPEN
ATLANTIC WITH IT. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE DAYBREAK, WITH A SMALL THREAT FOR SOME WRAPAROUND PRECIP
OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS FAR ENOUGH
AWAY. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR A FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE GULF
WATERS WITH ENHANCED COLD AIR STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT.

OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A CHILLY AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH SKIES
BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW-MID 60S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN
GLADES/HIGHLANDS POSSIBLY NOT REACHING 60.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS EXPECTED
TO DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S, EVEN ALONG THE EAST COAST. COLDEST
AREAS ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY, AND NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTIES MAY DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S. IF THE GRADIENT RELAXES AS QUICKLY AS MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING AND WINDS DROP OFF, THIS MAY BRING PATCHY FROST CONCERNS
OVER THE INTERIOR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

NEXT WEEK...A PREVAILING COOL, AND GENERALLY DRY, PATTERN WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE US. DESPITE LARGE TROUGH, THE JET STREAM
WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP THE STORM TRACK ACROSS THE US
WELL NORTH OF FLORIDA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MANAGES TO MOVE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/TUES, BUT MODELS REMAIN LESS THAN IMPRESSED ABOUT DEEP
MOISTURE OR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES. INSTEAD THIS FEATURE WILL
SERVE TO BUMP UP CLOUD COVER AND REINFORCE THE COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
EAST COAST TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN FAVOR OF MORE ZONAL FLOW AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARDS VEERS FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...N-NE WINDS TODAY AROUND 10-15KTS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
HIGHER OVER THE GULF WATERS AS OLD FRONT LIFTS BACK INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE IN THE
DAY. GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENS AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NW AROUND 20KTS
OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25KTS OVER ALL THE
WATERS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SUNDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TO THE NE AND
BRINGS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 15-20KTS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING WEST 10-15KTS INTO MONDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION.

SEAS 2-4FT IN THE GULF AND 4-6FT IN THE ATLANTIC TODAY, HIGHEST IN
THE GULF STREAM. NW WIND SURGE BEHIND FRONT LATE TONIGHT QUICKLY
BUILDS SEAS TO 10-12FT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF AND 7-10FT IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS INTO SUNDAY. GULF WATERS QUICKLY DROP TO 2-3FT ON
MONDAY AFTER WINDS SUBSIDE. HIGHER SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS FROM THE
DEPARTED LOW AS IT MOVES OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. BASED ON
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS, THE RESULTING SURF HEIGHTS MAY LEAD TO
MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  52  63  40 /  50  90  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  55  63  43 /  60  90  10   0
MIAMI            77  56  64  44 /  60  90  10   0
NAPLES           68  54  62  43 /  50  60   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

ALM




000
FXUS62 KTBW 060855
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A STRONG SHORT WAVE ALIGNED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL
DEEPEN... MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION AND
SPAWN A COASTAL LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.
ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS RELATIVELY LOW... THIS WILL SET
UP AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION TODAY WITH NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
THAT BECOME NORTHEAST AND EAST AT 925 AND 850 MB WITH A
SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER WITH A CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES. THE
SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM FLORIDA QUICKLY BUT WILL PULL DOWN ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR
OVER THE PENINSULA SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.


.MID TERM/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IT. FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS TO CAUSE A
FEW SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING EARLY TUESDAY. BREEZY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SETUP BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRINGING MORE COOL AND DRY WEATHER FOR MIDWEEK. LATE IN
THE WEEK THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT EAST AND WEAKEN SOME WITH
HEIGHTS RISING OVER FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND SETTING UP ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY LOWER WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN
CLEARING FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WILL INCREASE WINDS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IF ANY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
AGAIN WILL LIKELY INCREASE ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS LATE MONDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  60  45  58  45 /  40  30  10   0
FMY  67  51  62  43 /  40  40  10   0
GIF  64  44  59  42 /  40  50  10   0
SRQ  61  50  58  44 /  40  30  10   0
BKV  59  42  56  36 /  40  40   0   0
SPG  59  47  57  47 /  40  30   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...03/PAXTON
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KMLB 060841
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT...

CURRENT...QUITE AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS HERE. U40S/L50S
WHERE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT EXISTS AND U50S UP TO 70 DEGREES (SUA)
WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE. IN COMPARISON OKEECHOBEE HAS FALLEN
TO 50 DEGREES. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
U40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. STILL MAY SEE A FEW LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS AROUND 40 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF I-4. VERY
DRY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS VIEWED ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVED FROM BOTH KTBW/KXMR 00Z EVENING
SOUNDINGS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
DECK OFF OF THE EAST COAST BUT THESE CEILINGS OF 4.0-6.0 KFT ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PENETRATING INLAND THUS FAR THIS MORNING.
NEXRAD 88D BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SPITS/SPRINKLES OFF OF THE
TREASURE COAST AS A SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
TAKES PLACE DUE TO ENHANCED COASTAL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH.

TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

SUN...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. THIS WILL GENERATE A WINDY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TRANSPORTING A DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DECREASE INTO THE MORNING WITH
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL BE A
GOOD 13-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL THEN RELAX INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
TUE NIGHT PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FARTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER AS NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
EARLY WED MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING FARTHER
NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TEMPS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC040-060 MARINE STRATOCU DECK ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVING SOME TROUBLE SPREADING INLAND...BUT
BELIEVE IT INEVITABLY WILL LATER THIS MORNING. INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH VERY SLOW
MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. EXPECT SPRINKLES AND LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW
NEAR SOUTHEAST FL/NORTH BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERY
PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GREATEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME LCL OR AREAS OF LIFR.
EARLY MORNING NW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL VEER TO NNE/NE DURING
THE DAY BEFORE BACKING TO NWRLY AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NERLY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO BACK TO NWRLY
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WHILE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FL/BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH RAPID DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. TO START OFF...WILL REPLACE CURRENT
SCA WITH AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS
MORNING (09Z/4AM - 15Z/10AM). WILL HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING 03Z/10PM TONIGHT FLAGLER BEACH-SEBASTIAN
INLET...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET AT 06Z/1AM. SAME
TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EXCEPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

NERLY WINDS BACK LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT TO NWRLY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PGRAD RELAXES BUT
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY...WHEREAS SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND 5-7 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
GULF STREAM...SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK LATE OVERNIGHT TO 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN MORNING.

SUN...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SUN AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
STRONG NW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OFFSHORE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-13 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL EXIST NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING OFFSHORE.

MON-WED...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  48  57  38 /  30  60  10   0
MCO  68  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
MLB  70  50  60  39 /  30  70  10   0
VRB  72  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0
LEE  63  43  58  40 /  30  50  10   0
SFB  65  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
ORL  66  46  58  42 /  30  60  10   0
FPR  74  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-
     60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 060841
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT...

CURRENT...QUITE AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS HERE. U40S/L50S
WHERE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT EXISTS AND U50S UP TO 70 DEGREES (SUA)
WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE. IN COMPARISON OKEECHOBEE HAS FALLEN
TO 50 DEGREES. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
U40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. STILL MAY SEE A FEW LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS AROUND 40 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF I-4. VERY
DRY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS VIEWED ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVED FROM BOTH KTBW/KXMR 00Z EVENING
SOUNDINGS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
DECK OFF OF THE EAST COAST BUT THESE CEILINGS OF 4.0-6.0 KFT ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PENETRATING INLAND THUS FAR THIS MORNING.
NEXRAD 88D BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SPITS/SPRINKLES OFF OF THE
TREASURE COAST AS A SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
TAKES PLACE DUE TO ENHANCED COASTAL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH.

TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

SUN...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. THIS WILL GENERATE A WINDY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TRANSPORTING A DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DECREASE INTO THE MORNING WITH
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL BE A
GOOD 13-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL THEN RELAX INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
TUE NIGHT PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FARTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER AS NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
EARLY WED MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING FARTHER
NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TEMPS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC040-060 MARINE STRATOCU DECK ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVING SOME TROUBLE SPREADING INLAND...BUT
BELIEVE IT INEVITABLY WILL LATER THIS MORNING. INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH VERY SLOW
MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. EXPECT SPRINKLES AND LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW
NEAR SOUTHEAST FL/NORTH BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERY
PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GREATEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME LCL OR AREAS OF LIFR.
EARLY MORNING NW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL VEER TO NNE/NE DURING
THE DAY BEFORE BACKING TO NWRLY AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NERLY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO BACK TO NWRLY
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WHILE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FL/BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH RAPID DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. TO START OFF...WILL REPLACE CURRENT
SCA WITH AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS
MORNING (09Z/4AM - 15Z/10AM). WILL HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING 03Z/10PM TONIGHT FLAGLER BEACH-SEBASTIAN
INLET...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET AT 06Z/1AM. SAME
TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EXCEPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

NERLY WINDS BACK LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT TO NWRLY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PGRAD RELAXES BUT
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY...WHEREAS SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND 5-7 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
GULF STREAM...SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK LATE OVERNIGHT TO 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN MORNING.

SUN...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SUN AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
STRONG NW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OFFSHORE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-13 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL EXIST NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING OFFSHORE.

MON-WED...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  48  57  38 /  30  60  10   0
MCO  68  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
MLB  70  50  60  39 /  30  70  10   0
VRB  72  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0
LEE  63  43  58  40 /  30  50  10   0
SFB  65  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
ORL  66  46  58  42 /  30  60  10   0
FPR  74  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-
     60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....WEITLICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 060841
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT...

CURRENT...QUITE AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS HERE. U40S/L50S
WHERE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT EXISTS AND U50S UP TO 70 DEGREES (SUA)
WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE. IN COMPARISON OKEECHOBEE HAS FALLEN
TO 50 DEGREES. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
U40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. STILL MAY SEE A FEW LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS AROUND 40 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF I-4. VERY
DRY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS VIEWED ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVED FROM BOTH KTBW/KXMR 00Z EVENING
SOUNDINGS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
DECK OFF OF THE EAST COAST BUT THESE CEILINGS OF 4.0-6.0 KFT ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PENETRATING INLAND THUS FAR THIS MORNING.
NEXRAD 88D BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SPITS/SPRINKLES OFF OF THE
TREASURE COAST AS A SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
TAKES PLACE DUE TO ENHANCED COASTAL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH.

TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

SUN...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. THIS WILL GENERATE A WINDY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TRANSPORTING A DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DECREASE INTO THE MORNING WITH
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL BE A
GOOD 13-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL THEN RELAX INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
TUE NIGHT PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FARTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER AS NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
EARLY WED MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING FARTHER
NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TEMPS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC040-060 MARINE STRATOCU DECK ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVING SOME TROUBLE SPREADING INLAND...BUT
BELIEVE IT INEVITABLY WILL LATER THIS MORNING. INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH VERY SLOW
MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. EXPECT SPRINKLES AND LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW
NEAR SOUTHEAST FL/NORTH BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERY
PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GREATEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME LCL OR AREAS OF LIFR.
EARLY MORNING NW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL VEER TO NNE/NE DURING
THE DAY BEFORE BACKING TO NWRLY AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NERLY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO BACK TO NWRLY
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WHILE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FL/BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH RAPID DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. TO START OFF...WILL REPLACE CURRENT
SCA WITH AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS
MORNING (09Z/4AM - 15Z/10AM). WILL HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING 03Z/10PM TONIGHT FLAGLER BEACH-SEBASTIAN
INLET...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET AT 06Z/1AM. SAME
TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EXCEPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

NERLY WINDS BACK LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT TO NWRLY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PGRAD RELAXES BUT
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY...WHEREAS SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND 5-7 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
GULF STREAM...SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK LATE OVERNIGHT TO 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN MORNING.

SUN...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SUN AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
STRONG NW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OFFSHORE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-13 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL EXIST NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING OFFSHORE.

MON-WED...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  48  57  38 /  30  60  10   0
MCO  68  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
MLB  70  50  60  39 /  30  70  10   0
VRB  72  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0
LEE  63  43  58  40 /  30  50  10   0
SFB  65  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
ORL  66  46  58  42 /  30  60  10   0
FPR  74  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-
     60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....WEITLICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 060841
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT...

CURRENT...QUITE AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS HERE. U40S/L50S
WHERE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT EXISTS AND U50S UP TO 70 DEGREES (SUA)
WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE. IN COMPARISON OKEECHOBEE HAS FALLEN
TO 50 DEGREES. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
U40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. STILL MAY SEE A FEW LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS AROUND 40 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF I-4. VERY
DRY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS VIEWED ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVED FROM BOTH KTBW/KXMR 00Z EVENING
SOUNDINGS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
DECK OFF OF THE EAST COAST BUT THESE CEILINGS OF 4.0-6.0 KFT ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PENETRATING INLAND THUS FAR THIS MORNING.
NEXRAD 88D BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SPITS/SPRINKLES OFF OF THE
TREASURE COAST AS A SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
TAKES PLACE DUE TO ENHANCED COASTAL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH.

TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

SUN...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. THIS WILL GENERATE A WINDY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TRANSPORTING A DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DECREASE INTO THE MORNING WITH
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL BE A
GOOD 13-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL THEN RELAX INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
TUE NIGHT PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FARTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER AS NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
EARLY WED MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING FARTHER
NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TEMPS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC040-060 MARINE STRATOCU DECK ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVING SOME TROUBLE SPREADING INLAND...BUT
BELIEVE IT INEVITABLY WILL LATER THIS MORNING. INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH VERY SLOW
MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. EXPECT SPRINKLES AND LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW
NEAR SOUTHEAST FL/NORTH BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERY
PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GREATEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME LCL OR AREAS OF LIFR.
EARLY MORNING NW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL VEER TO NNE/NE DURING
THE DAY BEFORE BACKING TO NWRLY AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NERLY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO BACK TO NWRLY
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WHILE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FL/BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH RAPID DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. TO START OFF...WILL REPLACE CURRENT
SCA WITH AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS
MORNING (09Z/4AM - 15Z/10AM). WILL HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING 03Z/10PM TONIGHT FLAGLER BEACH-SEBASTIAN
INLET...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET AT 06Z/1AM. SAME
TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EXCEPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

NERLY WINDS BACK LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT TO NWRLY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PGRAD RELAXES BUT
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY...WHEREAS SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND 5-7 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
GULF STREAM...SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK LATE OVERNIGHT TO 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN MORNING.

SUN...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SUN AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
STRONG NW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OFFSHORE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-13 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL EXIST NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING OFFSHORE.

MON-WED...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  48  57  38 /  30  60  10   0
MCO  68  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
MLB  70  50  60  39 /  30  70  10   0
VRB  72  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0
LEE  63  43  58  40 /  30  50  10   0
SFB  65  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
ORL  66  46  58  42 /  30  60  10   0
FPR  74  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-
     60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....WEITLICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 060841
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
341 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT THEN TURNING COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT...

CURRENT...QUITE AN INTERESTING TEMPERATURE PROFILE ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST AS COASTAL TROUGHING DEVELOPS HERE. U40S/L50S
WHERE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT EXISTS AND U50S UP TO 70 DEGREES (SUA)
WHERE WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE. IN COMPARISON OKEECHOBEE HAS FALLEN
TO 50 DEGREES. FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
U40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. STILL MAY SEE A FEW LOWEST WIND CHILL
READINGS AROUND 40 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING NORTHWEST OF I-4. VERY
DRY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS VIEWED ON WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVED FROM BOTH KTBW/KXMR 00Z EVENING
SOUNDINGS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD
DECK OFF OF THE EAST COAST BUT THESE CEILINGS OF 4.0-6.0 KFT ARE
HAVING A HARD TIME PENETRATING INLAND THUS FAR THIS MORNING.
NEXRAD 88D BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SPITS/SPRINKLES OFF OF THE
TREASURE COAST AS A SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
TAKES PLACE DUE TO ENHANCED COASTAL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
DEVELOPING THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH.

TODAY-TONIGHT...EXPECT MANY FORECAST CHALLENGES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH SUBTLE COSMETIC UPDATES POSSIBLE FOR VARIOUS PARAMETERS.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL WEAKEN AND GET SQUEEZED NORTHEASTWARD. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. LATE
TODAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE INDUCED BY A VIGOROUS/STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER
TEXAS. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF DURING THE DAY
AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE OVERNIGHT. FURTHER ALOFT A
FAIRLY STRONG 120-130 KNOT UPPER JET WILL STREAM OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES) IN UPWARDS OF 1.60 INCHES
WHILE STAY LIMITED TO THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWARD. WHILE
DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE MUCH
LESS AS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT
VALUES IN THE LOWER LEVELS LOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTION
ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES MAY EXIST OVER
THE GULF STREAM AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BE KEY IN SEVERAL KEY
FORECAST PARAMETER FEATURES: TEMPERATURE, WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND
GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 00Z/7PM WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
INCREASING UP THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT VALUES
CENTRAL OSCEOLA-CENTRAL BREVARD NORTHWARD AND 40 TO 50 PERCENT
FURTHER SOUTHWARD. FUTURE SHIFTS CAN ALTER THESE NUMBERS AS
CONFIDENCE/RADAR TRENDS DICTATE. FOR TONIGHT WILL GO WITH 50 TO 60
PERCENT FOR SHOWERY PRECIPITATION FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH OSCEOLA COUNTY. EAST AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS WILL BUMP UP
CHANCES TO 70 TO 90 PERCENT. WILL MONITOR FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. RANGE FOR HIGHEST RAINFALL
CHANCES AREAWIDE APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z (7PM-1AM).

NORTHERLY EARLY MORNING WINDS INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL VEER TO NNE-
NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY THEN BACK TO NWRLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NE
MORNING WINDS ALONG THE COAST ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO NWRLY AS WELL
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS TODAY WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AREAWIDE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND PULL
AWAY SLOWLY FROM THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS LIKELY TO APPROACH 20 TO 25
MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS LATE TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE INTERESTING AS WELL WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RAMPING UPWARD. NORTH OF I-4 IN THE L-M60S
WITH U60S/L70S SOUTHWARD...EXCEPT POSSIBLE M70S ALONG THE MARTIN
COUNTY COAST.

SUN...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IN
ITS WAKE. THIS WILL GENERATE A WINDY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TRANSPORTING A DRY AND COLDER AIRMASS SOUTHWARD. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST WILL DECREASE INTO THE MORNING WITH
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE COASTAL WATERS BY DAYBREAK. HIGHS WILL BE A
GOOD 13-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. SFC WINDS WILL THEN RELAX INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

MON-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST FRONT MONDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S...THEN AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S MON NIGHT. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUE WITH STRONGER COLD AIR ADVECTION
TUE NIGHT PRODUCING LOWS IN THE MID 30S OVER FAR NRN LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FARTHER SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE HOWEVER AS NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
EARLY WED MORNING.

DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FROM EARLY TO MID WEEK...BUT A
STRONG SOUTHERN JET STREAM MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MON NIGHT DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

THU-FRI...DOMINANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL
BUILD EASTWARD AND ACROSS FL INTO THU BEFORE LIFTING FARTHER
NORTHEAST FRI. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TEMPS FORECAST BY THE MODELS INTO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO
NORMAL INDICATED BY FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC040-060 MARINE STRATOCU DECK ALONG THE EAST COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING HAVING SOME TROUBLE SPREADING INLAND...BUT
BELIEVE IT INEVITABLY WILL LATER THIS MORNING. INVERTED COASTAL
TROUGH/CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH VERY SLOW
MODIFICATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. EXPECT SPRINKLES AND LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND GRADUALLY
SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY. AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A SURFACE LOW
NEAR SOUTHEAST FL/NORTH BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWERY
PCPN WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH GREATEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR
CONDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PERHAPS SOME LCL OR AREAS OF LIFR.
EARLY MORNING NW WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL VEER TO NNE/NE DURING
THE DAY BEFORE BACKING TO NWRLY AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. NERLY
WINDS ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALSO BACK TO NWRLY
THIS EVENING. WIND SPEEDS WHILE MAINLY LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AND FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE EAST
COAST TODAY. DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF A LOW PRESSURE NEAR
SOUTHEAST FL/BAHAMAS LATE TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH RAPID DETERIORATING
MARINE CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. TO START OFF...WILL REPLACE CURRENT
SCA WITH AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS
MORNING (09Z/4AM - 15Z/10AM). WILL HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING 03Z/10PM TONIGHT FLAGLER BEACH-SEBASTIAN
INLET...CONTINUING SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET AT 06Z/1AM. SAME
TIMING FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EXCEPT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

NERLY WINDS BACK LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT TO NWRLY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE PGRAD RELAXES BUT
WILL RAMP UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS NEAR SHORE OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTY...WHEREAS SPEEDS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.

SEAS 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE TODAY AND 5-7 FT EARLY IN THE PERIOD OVER THE
GULF STREAM...SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD
BACK LATE OVERNIGHT TO 6-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10 FT OFFSHORE TOWARD
DAYBREAK SUN MORNING.

SUN...VERY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SUN AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LIFTS NORTHEAST.
STRONG NW WINDS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE OFFSHORE...BUILDING SEAS UP TO 10-13 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL EXIST NEARSHORE WITH GALE WARNING OFFSHORE.

MON-WED...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY-MID WEEK AS A COUPLE REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS ELEVATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  48  57  38 /  30  60  10   0
MCO  68  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
MLB  70  50  60  39 /  30  70  10   0
VRB  72  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0
LEE  63  43  58  40 /  30  50  10   0
SFB  65  47  58  40 /  30  60  10   0
ORL  66  46  58  42 /  30  60  10   0
FPR  74  54  60  39 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
     MORNING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-
     60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....WEITLICH



000
FXUS62 KTAE 060838
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
338 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A low is expected to form over south Florida today and quickly move
northeast and strengthen. Wrap around moisture is expected to move
in to the region on the backside of this low. That means increasing
clouds today especially for the eastern half of the region. There is
even a chance for an afternoon/evening shower for the eastern Big
Bend and south central Georgia (POPs 20 to 35 percent). Cloud cover
will keep afternoon highs lower in the eastern half of the region
with upper 40s expected near the Valdosta area. Elsewhere highs
will be in the 50s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
A large upper trough moving over the region tonight will continue
to intensify the surface low pressure area east of the Florida
Peninsula. There may be just enough lift and moisture remaining in
the evening to lead to a few light showers across the eastern
areas. Temperatures overnight will be cool but the presence of
some cloud cover and light northerly winds should be enough to
keep temperatures just above freezing.

On Sunday, weak shortwave ridging aloft will build over the region
with surface high pressure off to the southwest of the area.
Expect a dry day with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

By Monday, the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will amplify
considerably as a large upper low drops out of Canada and moves
toward the Ohio River Valley by Monday afternoon. At the surface a
dry cold front will surge across the area, starting a stretch of
breezy and chilly temperatures through mid week.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The upper low will remain centered over the Ohio River Valley
through Wednesday before lifting out into the Mid Atlantic on
Wednesday night. This first half of the long term period should
be quite chilly with high temperatures on Tuesday struggling to
reach 50 in North Florida and in the mid 40s in South
Georgia/Alabama. The system is expected to be moisture-starved,
thus precip chances are 10 percent or less through the first half
of the period.

By Thursday, surface high pressure to the northeast of the region
will allow for light southerly flow to return some moisture and
for afternoon temperatures to warm back into the 60s. Beyond
Friday, forecast confidence decreases considerably due to drastic
model differences. The 06/00z GFS suggests a continuation of the
warming trend into the weekend, while the 06/00z Euro brings
another blast of cooler and drier air to the region. For now, have
split the difference between these two solutions, which
effectively is a climo forecast for mid February.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday] VFR conditions will remain throughout the
TAF cycle. In the morning, some low clouds (3K to 4K feet) will
move in and remain mainly in the eastern half of the region. Rain
is possible in the VLD area mainly in the late afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will be light and northerly.

&&

.Marine...
Moderate offshore winds will increase to at least cautionary
levels tonight as a low pressure system develops off the Florida
East Coast. After a brief lull in winds on Sunday night, a rapid
increase in winds and seas will occur on Monday behind a dry cold
front. A period of advisory conditions, with gale conditions
possible, will begin Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry air will be in place for the next several days. RH values are
expected to remain above critical thresholds for red flag criteria.
No fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Several river forecast points are above flood stage this morning,
with a couple of additional locations forecast to reach flood
stage in the next couple of days.

The Choctawhatchee has crested at Geneva, so the river should
crest at Caryville in the next 36 hours. Expect Bruce to begin
rising more steadily today, and exceed moderate flood stage by
tonight.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River, releases from Walter F
George have stabilized around 45 kcfs. With the Flint contribution
forecast to near 35 kfcs at Bainbridge by Sunday, releases from
Woodruff will remain in the 80-85kcfs range for at least the next
couple of days. As a result, downstream river levels at
Blountstown will continue to increase. Expect an eventual crest in
the next 48 hours in the 21-21.5 foot range.

Minor flooding will continue in the upper portion of the
Withlacoochee River basin near Valdosta. The US-84 crossing will
move above minor flood stage tonight. In the next 48 hours, the
contribution from the Little River will reach peak discharge into
the Withlacoochee near Valdosta. The latest projection suggests a
crest at the US-84 gauge Tuesday night in the 106.5-108 foot
range - or just below the moderate flood level.

The Ochlockonee River is also steadily rising at Thomasville and
should rise above minor flood stage later today. The Florida
portion of the river will approach flood stage Monday night into
Tuesday at CR-12/Concord.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  33  60  37  62 /  10  10   0   0  10
Panama City   56  38  58  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        54  33  58  38  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        55  31  58  37  57 /  10  10   0   0  10
Valdosta      47  35  58  36  61 /  30  30   0   0  10
Cross City    56  36  59  38  64 /  30  30   0   0  10
Apalachicola  58  37  59  45  62 /   0  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 060838
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
338 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A low is expected to form over south Florida today and quickly move
northeast and strengthen. Wrap around moisture is expected to move
in to the region on the backside of this low. That means increasing
clouds today especially for the eastern half of the region. There is
even a chance for an afternoon/evening shower for the eastern Big
Bend and south central Georgia (POPs 20 to 35 percent). Cloud cover
will keep afternoon highs lower in the eastern half of the region
with upper 40s expected near the Valdosta area. Elsewhere highs
will be in the 50s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
A large upper trough moving over the region tonight will continue
to intensify the surface low pressure area east of the Florida
Peninsula. There may be just enough lift and moisture remaining in
the evening to lead to a few light showers across the eastern
areas. Temperatures overnight will be cool but the presence of
some cloud cover and light northerly winds should be enough to
keep temperatures just above freezing.

On Sunday, weak shortwave ridging aloft will build over the region
with surface high pressure off to the southwest of the area.
Expect a dry day with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

By Monday, the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will amplify
considerably as a large upper low drops out of Canada and moves
toward the Ohio River Valley by Monday afternoon. At the surface a
dry cold front will surge across the area, starting a stretch of
breezy and chilly temperatures through mid week.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The upper low will remain centered over the Ohio River Valley
through Wednesday before lifting out into the Mid Atlantic on
Wednesday night. This first half of the long term period should
be quite chilly with high temperatures on Tuesday struggling to
reach 50 in North Florida and in the mid 40s in South
Georgia/Alabama. The system is expected to be moisture-starved,
thus precip chances are 10 percent or less through the first half
of the period.

By Thursday, surface high pressure to the northeast of the region
will allow for light southerly flow to return some moisture and
for afternoon temperatures to warm back into the 60s. Beyond
Friday, forecast confidence decreases considerably due to drastic
model differences. The 06/00z GFS suggests a continuation of the
warming trend into the weekend, while the 06/00z Euro brings
another blast of cooler and drier air to the region. For now, have
split the difference between these two solutions, which
effectively is a climo forecast for mid February.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday] VFR conditions will remain throughout the
TAF cycle. In the morning, some low clouds (3K to 4K feet) will
move in and remain mainly in the eastern half of the region. Rain
is possible in the VLD area mainly in the late afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will be light and northerly.

&&

.Marine...
Moderate offshore winds will increase to at least cautionary
levels tonight as a low pressure system develops off the Florida
East Coast. After a brief lull in winds on Sunday night, a rapid
increase in winds and seas will occur on Monday behind a dry cold
front. A period of advisory conditions, with gale conditions
possible, will begin Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry air will be in place for the next several days. RH values are
expected to remain above critical thresholds for red flag criteria.
No fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Several river forecast points are above flood stage this morning,
with a couple of additional locations forecast to reach flood
stage in the next couple of days.

The Choctawhatchee has crested at Geneva, so the river should
crest at Caryville in the next 36 hours. Expect Bruce to begin
rising more steadily today, and exceed moderate flood stage by
tonight.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River, releases from Walter F
George have stabilized around 45 kcfs. With the Flint contribution
forecast to near 35 kfcs at Bainbridge by Sunday, releases from
Woodruff will remain in the 80-85kcfs range for at least the next
couple of days. As a result, downstream river levels at
Blountstown will continue to increase. Expect an eventual crest in
the next 48 hours in the 21-21.5 foot range.

Minor flooding will continue in the upper portion of the
Withlacoochee River basin near Valdosta. The US-84 crossing will
move above minor flood stage tonight. In the next 48 hours, the
contribution from the Little River will reach peak discharge into
the Withlacoochee near Valdosta. The latest projection suggests a
crest at the US-84 gauge Tuesday night in the 106.5-108 foot
range - or just below the moderate flood level.

The Ochlockonee River is also steadily rising at Thomasville and
should rise above minor flood stage later today. The Florida
portion of the river will approach flood stage Monday night into
Tuesday at CR-12/Concord.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  33  60  37  62 /  10  10   0   0  10
Panama City   56  38  58  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        54  33  58  38  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        55  31  58  37  57 /  10  10   0   0  10
Valdosta      47  35  58  36  61 /  30  30   0   0  10
Cross City    56  36  59  38  64 /  30  30   0   0  10
Apalachicola  58  37  59  45  62 /   0  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



000
FXUS62 KTAE 060838
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
338 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A low is expected to form over south Florida today and quickly move
northeast and strengthen. Wrap around moisture is expected to move
in to the region on the backside of this low. That means increasing
clouds today especially for the eastern half of the region. There is
even a chance for an afternoon/evening shower for the eastern Big
Bend and south central Georgia (POPs 20 to 35 percent). Cloud cover
will keep afternoon highs lower in the eastern half of the region
with upper 40s expected near the Valdosta area. Elsewhere highs
will be in the 50s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
A large upper trough moving over the region tonight will continue
to intensify the surface low pressure area east of the Florida
Peninsula. There may be just enough lift and moisture remaining in
the evening to lead to a few light showers across the eastern
areas. Temperatures overnight will be cool but the presence of
some cloud cover and light northerly winds should be enough to
keep temperatures just above freezing.

On Sunday, weak shortwave ridging aloft will build over the region
with surface high pressure off to the southwest of the area.
Expect a dry day with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

By Monday, the pattern across the Eastern CONUS will amplify
considerably as a large upper low drops out of Canada and moves
toward the Ohio River Valley by Monday afternoon. At the surface a
dry cold front will surge across the area, starting a stretch of
breezy and chilly temperatures through mid week.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The upper low will remain centered over the Ohio River Valley
through Wednesday before lifting out into the Mid Atlantic on
Wednesday night. This first half of the long term period should
be quite chilly with high temperatures on Tuesday struggling to
reach 50 in North Florida and in the mid 40s in South
Georgia/Alabama. The system is expected to be moisture-starved,
thus precip chances are 10 percent or less through the first half
of the period.

By Thursday, surface high pressure to the northeast of the region
will allow for light southerly flow to return some moisture and
for afternoon temperatures to warm back into the 60s. Beyond
Friday, forecast confidence decreases considerably due to drastic
model differences. The 06/00z GFS suggests a continuation of the
warming trend into the weekend, while the 06/00z Euro brings
another blast of cooler and drier air to the region. For now, have
split the difference between these two solutions, which
effectively is a climo forecast for mid February.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday] VFR conditions will remain throughout the
TAF cycle. In the morning, some low clouds (3K to 4K feet) will
move in and remain mainly in the eastern half of the region. Rain
is possible in the VLD area mainly in the late afternoon and
evening hours. Winds will be light and northerly.

&&

.Marine...
Moderate offshore winds will increase to at least cautionary
levels tonight as a low pressure system develops off the Florida
East Coast. After a brief lull in winds on Sunday night, a rapid
increase in winds and seas will occur on Monday behind a dry cold
front. A period of advisory conditions, with gale conditions
possible, will begin Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry air will be in place for the next several days. RH values are
expected to remain above critical thresholds for red flag criteria.
No fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Several river forecast points are above flood stage this morning,
with a couple of additional locations forecast to reach flood
stage in the next couple of days.

The Choctawhatchee has crested at Geneva, so the river should
crest at Caryville in the next 36 hours. Expect Bruce to begin
rising more steadily today, and exceed moderate flood stage by
tonight.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River, releases from Walter F
George have stabilized around 45 kcfs. With the Flint contribution
forecast to near 35 kfcs at Bainbridge by Sunday, releases from
Woodruff will remain in the 80-85kcfs range for at least the next
couple of days. As a result, downstream river levels at
Blountstown will continue to increase. Expect an eventual crest in
the next 48 hours in the 21-21.5 foot range.

Minor flooding will continue in the upper portion of the
Withlacoochee River basin near Valdosta. The US-84 crossing will
move above minor flood stage tonight. In the next 48 hours, the
contribution from the Little River will reach peak discharge into
the Withlacoochee near Valdosta. The latest projection suggests a
crest at the US-84 gauge Tuesday night in the 106.5-108 foot
range - or just below the moderate flood level.

The Ochlockonee River is also steadily rising at Thomasville and
should rise above minor flood stage later today. The Florida
portion of the river will approach flood stage Monday night into
Tuesday at CR-12/Concord.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  33  60  37  62 /  10  10   0   0  10
Panama City   56  38  58  46  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        54  33  58  38  56 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        55  31  58  37  57 /  10  10   0   0  10
Valdosta      47  35  58  36  61 /  30  30   0   0  10
Cross City    56  36  59  38  64 /  30  30   0   0  10
Apalachicola  58  37  59  45  62 /   0  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning FOR
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     Washington.

GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST this morning FOR Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KKEY 060819
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHEAST NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...BEFORE ACCELERATING TO
THE NORTHEAST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE ABOUT
TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PASS OVER NORTH FLORIDA
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD EXTEND
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY. NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ARE NEEDED IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TODAY. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS TUESDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET. SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL BACK
TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1912...1.82 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON FEBRUARY 6TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 104 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  73 60 67 56 / 80 90 20 -
MARATHON  75 59 67 54 / 80 90 20 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 060731
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
231 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...
BREEZY...AND COOL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVLEOPING INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NE FL COAST THIS MORNING...MOVING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ONLY BE IN THE 50S.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE
NOW OVER TEXAS REACHES THE FL PANHANDLE/SW GA BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE SE FL
COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NE.
N WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING LOW WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS
LOWERING TO NEAR 1300M(NAM12 BEING THE COLDEST) OVER COASTAL SE
GA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN RAIN BRIEFLY MIXING WITH A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES IN THAT AREA TOWARDS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER SE GA AND INTERIOR
NE FL...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE NE FL COAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LARGE STORM SYSTEM ABOUT 300-400 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING PCPN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL PULL EAST INTO THE OCEAN BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AS IT ENDS
ALONG THE SE GA COAST WILL BE VERY LOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SREF SHOWING CHANCES AROUND 5-10% OF THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES BECOMING SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20G30MPH AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SUN NIGHT...COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH
THE NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP INLAND AREAS
FROM A FREEZE BUT LOWS IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THIS LIGHT WEST
WIND WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
EXPECT W/SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO CLIMO VALUES IN THE
60-65 DEGREE RANGE. NORMALLY THESE SECONDARY FRONTS PASS THROUGH
DRY BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ENERGY/MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

MON NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACRS NE FL...OTHERWISE ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS IS USHERED IN
ON W/NW WINDS AT 10-20 MPH AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER INLAND AREAS AND NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT ELEVATED WINDS WILL PREVENT A
FREEZE AND EXPECT MAIN IMPACT ONCE AGAIN TO BE WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILLS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY-SATURDAY/...

TUE/WED...COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STAY JUST ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT A HARD
FREEZE...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE OVER INLAND AREAS AND WIND
CHILLS DOWN AS LOW AS 20-25 DEGREES WED MORNING...VERY CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS OF 20F OR LESS. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS OF ONLY AROUND 50 DEGREES TUESDAY AND IN THE 50S
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE REGION BY
WED NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPS MIGHT BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
WITH A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE INLAND...AND AT THE VERY
LEAST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT FROST EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND EXPECT A SLOW
MODERATING TEMP TREND WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 ON THURSDAY...WELL INTO
THE 60S ON FRIDAY...AND CLOSER TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70S BY SATURDAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY CIGS OVER NE FL/SE GA ARE BETWEEN 4 TO 5 KFT
AS NNE WINDS AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INCREASES. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AFTER 16Z AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AS
RAIN INCREASES. HAVE VCSH 17Z-00Z MAINLY NEAR THE EAST COAST TODAY
AS COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL BECOMING PREVAILING AFTER
00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GNV WHERE RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS.
NORTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NE FL COAST(SGJ) EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STAY STRONG THROUGH
SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL BE TO AROUND 25 KTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...NNE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMING OFF THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE SE FL COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYS AS IT MOVES NE. HAVE
UPGRADED GALE TO A WARNING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  37  54  35 /  40  40  10   0
SSI  52  38  52  41 /  50  60  30   0
JAX  54  38  54  37 /  40  60  20   0
SGJ  57  41  54  42 /  40  60  20   0
GNV  56  37  56  36 /  30  40  10   0
OCF  59  41  56  37 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 060731
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
231 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...
BREEZY...AND COOL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVLEOPING INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NE FL COAST THIS MORNING...MOVING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ONLY BE IN THE 50S.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE
NOW OVER TEXAS REACHES THE FL PANHANDLE/SW GA BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE SE FL
COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NE.
N WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING LOW WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS
LOWERING TO NEAR 1300M(NAM12 BEING THE COLDEST) OVER COASTAL SE
GA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN RAIN BRIEFLY MIXING WITH A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES IN THAT AREA TOWARDS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER SE GA AND INTERIOR
NE FL...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE NE FL COAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LARGE STORM SYSTEM ABOUT 300-400 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING PCPN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL PULL EAST INTO THE OCEAN BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AS IT ENDS
ALONG THE SE GA COAST WILL BE VERY LOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SREF SHOWING CHANCES AROUND 5-10% OF THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES BECOMING SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20G30MPH AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SUN NIGHT...COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH
THE NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP INLAND AREAS
FROM A FREEZE BUT LOWS IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THIS LIGHT WEST
WIND WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
EXPECT W/SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO CLIMO VALUES IN THE
60-65 DEGREE RANGE. NORMALLY THESE SECONDARY FRONTS PASS THROUGH
DRY BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ENERGY/MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

MON NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACRS NE FL...OTHERWISE ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS IS USHERED IN
ON W/NW WINDS AT 10-20 MPH AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER INLAND AREAS AND NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT ELEVATED WINDS WILL PREVENT A
FREEZE AND EXPECT MAIN IMPACT ONCE AGAIN TO BE WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILLS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY-SATURDAY/...

TUE/WED...COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STAY JUST ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT A HARD
FREEZE...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE OVER INLAND AREAS AND WIND
CHILLS DOWN AS LOW AS 20-25 DEGREES WED MORNING...VERY CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS OF 20F OR LESS. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS OF ONLY AROUND 50 DEGREES TUESDAY AND IN THE 50S
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE REGION BY
WED NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPS MIGHT BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
WITH A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE INLAND...AND AT THE VERY
LEAST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT FROST EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND EXPECT A SLOW
MODERATING TEMP TREND WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 ON THURSDAY...WELL INTO
THE 60S ON FRIDAY...AND CLOSER TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70S BY SATURDAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY CIGS OVER NE FL/SE GA ARE BETWEEN 4 TO 5 KFT
AS NNE WINDS AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INCREASES. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AFTER 16Z AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AS
RAIN INCREASES. HAVE VCSH 17Z-00Z MAINLY NEAR THE EAST COAST TODAY
AS COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL BECOMING PREVAILING AFTER
00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GNV WHERE RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS.
NORTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NE FL COAST(SGJ) EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STAY STRONG THROUGH
SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL BE TO AROUND 25 KTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...NNE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMING OFF THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE SE FL COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYS AS IT MOVES NE. HAVE
UPGRADED GALE TO A WARNING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  37  54  35 /  40  40  10   0
SSI  52  38  52  41 /  50  60  30   0
JAX  54  38  54  37 /  40  60  20   0
SGJ  57  41  54  42 /  40  60  20   0
GNV  56  37  56  36 /  30  40  10   0
OCF  59  41  56  37 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 060731
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
231 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...
BREEZY...AND COOL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DEVLEOPING INVERTED TROUGH OFF
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SCATTERED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NE FL COAST THIS MORNING...MOVING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ONLY BE IN THE 50S.
RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE
NOW OVER TEXAS REACHES THE FL PANHANDLE/SW GA BY 12Z SUNDAY. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM OFF THE SE FL
COAST THIS EVENING AND THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NE.
N WINDS ON BACK SIDE OF DEEPENING LOW WILL ADVECT COLDER AIR INTO
THE REGION. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE AND 1000-850MB THICKNESS
LOWERING TO NEAR 1300M(NAM12 BEING THE COLDEST) OVER COASTAL SE
GA BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN RAIN BRIEFLY MIXING WITH A
FEW SNOW FLURRIES IN THAT AREA TOWARDS MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S OVER SE GA AND INTERIOR
NE FL...TO THE LOWER 40S NEAR THE NE FL COAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...LARGE STORM SYSTEM ABOUT 300-400 MILES EAST OF
JACKSONVILLE WILL SLOWLY PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION. ANY
LINGERING PCPN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL PULL EAST INTO THE OCEAN BY THE
AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF ANY SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN AS IT ENDS
ALONG THE SE GA COAST WILL BE VERY LOW DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH SREF SHOWING CHANCES AROUND 5-10% OF THIS POSSIBILITY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT SKIES BECOMING SUNNY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20G30MPH AND HIGHS ONLY REACHING BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

SUN NIGHT...COLD WESTERLY FLOW WILL LINGER AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH
THE NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP INLAND AREAS
FROM A FREEZE BUT LOWS IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH THIS LIGHT WEST
WIND WILL DRIVE WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...SECONDARY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
EXPECT W/SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE TO INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH AT TIMES...JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. MAX TEMPS WILL INCREASE CLOSER TO CLIMO VALUES IN THE
60-65 DEGREE RANGE. NORMALLY THESE SECONDARY FRONTS PASS THROUGH
DRY BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH ENERGY/MOISTURE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

MON NIGHT...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACRS NE FL...OTHERWISE ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS IS USHERED IN
ON W/NW WINDS AT 10-20 MPH AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER
30S OVER INLAND AREAS AND NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...BUT ELEVATED WINDS WILL PREVENT A
FREEZE AND EXPECT MAIN IMPACT ONCE AGAIN TO BE WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILLS DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S BY TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY-SATURDAY/...

TUE/WED...COLD AIRMASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ALTHOUGH WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL STAY JUST ELEVATED ENOUGH TO PREVENT A HARD
FREEZE...WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE OVER INLAND AREAS AND WIND
CHILLS DOWN AS LOW AS 20-25 DEGREES WED MORNING...VERY CLOSE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS OF 20F OR LESS. MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS OF ONLY AROUND 50 DEGREES TUESDAY AND IN THE 50S
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER TO THE REGION BY
WED NIGHT AND EXPECT TEMPS MIGHT BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
WITH A WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE POSSIBLE INLAND...AND AT THE VERY
LEAST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT FROST EARLY THU MORNING.

THU-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION AND EXPECT A SLOW
MODERATING TEMP TREND WITH HIGHS NEAR 60 ON THURSDAY...WELL INTO
THE 60S ON FRIDAY...AND CLOSER TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70S BY SATURDAY.
MAINLY DRY CONDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY CIGS OVER NE FL/SE GA ARE BETWEEN 4 TO 5 KFT
AS NNE WINDS AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE INCREASES. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER
TO MVFR AFTER 16Z AND THEN POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 23Z AS
RAIN INCREASES. HAVE VCSH 17Z-00Z MAINLY NEAR THE EAST COAST TODAY
AS COASTAL SHOWERS DEVELOP. RAIN WILL BECOMING PREVAILING AFTER
00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GNV WHERE RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS.
NORTH WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE NE FL COAST(SGJ) EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND STAY STRONG THROUGH
SUNDAY. GUSTS WILL BE TO AROUND 25 KTS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...NNE WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVERNIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMING OFF THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE SE FL COAST AND THEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYS AS IT MOVES NE. HAVE
UPGRADED GALE TO A WARNING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
EXPECTED OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  51  37  54  35 /  40  40  10   0
SSI  52  38  52  41 /  50  60  30   0
JAX  54  38  54  37 /  40  60  20   0
SGJ  57  41  54  42 /  40  60  20   0
GNV  56  37  56  36 /  30  40  10   0
OCF  59  41  56  37 /  30  40  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

     GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS/



000
FXUS62 KMFL 060605
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF OUR EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT STARTING EARLY SUNDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THIS THERE WILL BE INCREASING MVFR CIGS LATER
TODAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONITE BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AT APF AND
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG EAST COAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRYING KICKS IN. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE
THIS TIME DECIDED TO THROW IN A SCT DECK OF AROUND 1 KFT AND REVISIT
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NE 5-10 KTS ALL
SITES TODAY BACKING TO THE NW THIS EVENING AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT
AS FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE TO OUR EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS.
THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE BELOW 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE DROP FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
EXCEPT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE SEAS BEING ABOVE 7 FEET
TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3500 FT EAST COAST WITH SKC AT
KAPF...BUT CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE THERE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, BUT THE
MAIN RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH SAT
EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CIGS AND VIS COULD PREVAIL. FOR
NOW, HAVE INSERTED PROB30 EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME BUT THIS
LIKELY WILL BECOME TEMPO AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING IN TIME. BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. TSRA IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST BUT THIS WILL BE ASSESSED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
TONIGHT. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL THEN
BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA THAN FORECAST THEN THUNDER MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IN LATER UPDATES.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
EXCEPT UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH THE METRO AREAS BEING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
METRO PALM BEACH AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THEY WILL BE
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA WILL MORE LIKELY COME
BACK TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  52  63  42  68 /  80  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  55  64  45  67 /  80  10  10  10
MIAMI            56  65  46  68 /  80  10  10  10
NAPLES           54  61  45  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...52/PS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 060605
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF OUR EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT STARTING EARLY SUNDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THIS THERE WILL BE INCREASING MVFR CIGS LATER
TODAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONITE BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AT APF AND
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG EAST COAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRYING KICKS IN. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE
THIS TIME DECIDED TO THROW IN A SCT DECK OF AROUND 1 KFT AND REVISIT
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NE 5-10 KTS ALL
SITES TODAY BACKING TO THE NW THIS EVENING AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT
AS FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE TO OUR EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS.
THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE BELOW 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE DROP FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
EXCEPT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE SEAS BEING ABOVE 7 FEET
TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3500 FT EAST COAST WITH SKC AT
KAPF...BUT CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE THERE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, BUT THE
MAIN RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH SAT
EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CIGS AND VIS COULD PREVAIL. FOR
NOW, HAVE INSERTED PROB30 EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME BUT THIS
LIKELY WILL BECOME TEMPO AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING IN TIME. BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. TSRA IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST BUT THIS WILL BE ASSESSED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
TONIGHT. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL THEN
BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA THAN FORECAST THEN THUNDER MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IN LATER UPDATES.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
EXCEPT UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH THE METRO AREAS BEING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
METRO PALM BEACH AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THEY WILL BE
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA WILL MORE LIKELY COME
BACK TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  52  63  42  68 /  80  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  55  64  45  67 /  80  10  10  10
MIAMI            56  65  46  68 /  80  10  10  10
NAPLES           54  61  45  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 060605
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SE U.S. COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF OUR EAST COAST WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT STARTING EARLY SUNDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH THIS THERE WILL BE INCREASING MVFR CIGS LATER
TODAY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONITE BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AT APF AND
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG EAST COAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRYING KICKS IN. GIVEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE
THIS TIME DECIDED TO THROW IN A SCT DECK OF AROUND 1 KFT AND REVISIT
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL BE NE 5-10 KTS ALL
SITES TODAY BACKING TO THE NW THIS EVENING AND INCREASING OVERNIGHT
AS FRONTOGENESIS TAKES PLACE TO OUR EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS.
THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE BELOW 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE DROP FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
EXCEPT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE SEAS BEING ABOVE 7 FEET
TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3500 FT EAST COAST WITH SKC AT
KAPF...BUT CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE THERE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, BUT THE
MAIN RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH SAT
EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CIGS AND VIS COULD PREVAIL. FOR
NOW, HAVE INSERTED PROB30 EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME BUT THIS
LIKELY WILL BECOME TEMPO AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING IN TIME. BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. TSRA IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST BUT THIS WILL BE ASSESSED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
TONIGHT. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL THEN
BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA THAN FORECAST THEN THUNDER MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IN LATER UPDATES.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
EXCEPT UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH THE METRO AREAS BEING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
METRO PALM BEACH AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THEY WILL BE
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA WILL MORE LIKELY COME
BACK TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  52  63  42  68 /  80  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  55  64  45  67 /  80  10  10  10
MIAMI            56  65  46  68 /  80  10  10  10
NAPLES           54  61  45  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KKEY 060338
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1038 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK WARM THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPED ATOP THE
COOL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
60S IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES...AND THEY LIKELY WILL NOT BUDGE
FROM THERE OVERNIGHT. FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES PERSIST...SOUTH OF A
LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXISTING FORECASTS. AREAS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY RAINY
DAY...NOT AS COOL AS TODAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST
BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SURGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIE NEAR ANDROS ISLAND AND MEANDER OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...RANGING FROM 015
TO 030 AND POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL AFFECT
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER MID-MORNING...REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO 4 SM
AND EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVY RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BACKING FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
     GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-
     GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 060338
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1038 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK WARM THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPED ATOP THE
COOL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
60S IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES...AND THEY LIKELY WILL NOT BUDGE
FROM THERE OVERNIGHT. FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES PERSIST...SOUTH OF A
LARGE CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.

FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO EXISTING FORECASTS. AREAS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS LOW-LEVEL WARM THERMAL ADVECTION INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND OCCASIONALLY RAINY
DAY...NOT AS COOL AS TODAY. MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST
BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SURGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. A STATIONARY
FRONT WILL LIE NEAR ANDROS ISLAND AND MEANDER OVERNIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS SATURDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...RANGING FROM 015
TO 030 AND POSSIBLY LOWER AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL AFFECT
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER MID-MORNING...REDUCING THE VISIBILITY TO 4 SM
AND EVEN LOWER WITH HEAVY RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS...BACKING FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
     GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-
     GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 060331
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...

UPDATE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS SLIDING EAST...
WITH SYNOPTIC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE. N-NW DRAINAGE WIND HAS SET
UP OVER LAND AS TEMPS THERE HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U40S-50F. A LOCAL
"BATTLEGROUND" OF SORTS SITS ALONG THE COAST - WINDS AT DAB/MLB
SNAPPED BACK AROUND TO NW...WHICH ALLOWED THEIR TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO
THE L50S...WHILE VRB-FPR-SUA AND THE BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS ARE ALL
IN THE M-U60S. WAA/UPGLIDE APPARENT ON 00Z MFL SOUNDING OCCURRING AT
THE SUBSIDENCE CAP LEVEL...AROUND H85-H80. RESULTANT NWD EXPANSION
OF CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH FL ALONG THE TREASURE COAST CAN BE SEEN IN
3.9UM IMAGERY.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE
DISPARITY IN MINS OVER THE COASTAL COS...AND THE MAIN UPDATE WILL BE
TO EMPHASIZE THIS LARGE RANGE. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE SMALL COASTAL
POP. IT`S PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT THE ENTIRE GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES
LOCAL/MESO MODEL SUITE IS MUCH...MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIP FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLC AND ITS ADVECTION ONSHORE. JUST
ABOUT EVERY PIECE OF GUIDANCE HAD -SHRA REACHING THE COAST BY 03Z...
YET THE 88D IS ECHO FREE WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLC ATTM. HAD MADE
A LATE AFTN ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDS/ZFP TO PUSH TIMING OF ONSET OVER THE
ATLC BACK TO 04Z AND ALONG THE COAST AROUND 08Z...AND THIS APPEARS
TO BE WORKING OUT WELL THUS FAR. STILL EXPECTING ENHANCED COASTAL
CONVERGENCE INVOF THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH COUPLED
WITH SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO EVENTUALLY ALLOW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO BREAK OUT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND QUICKLY PUSH ONSHORE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN035-045 SPREADING INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH
AREAS OVC040 SPREAD NWD SUA-MLB. VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND
AFT 06Z...WITH --SHRA/-SHRA DVLPG OVER THE ATLC BY THAT TIME...
AND EXPECTED TO INVOF THE COASTAL AERODROMES BY 09Z-12Z. VCSH FOR
MOST AREAS (LOWEST CHC LEE-ISM) DVLPG BY 15Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SEA BUILDING TO 5-7FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10FT OFFSHORE AS
NRLY WINDS OF 20-25KT VEER TO NE.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WEATHER...LASCODY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

...COOL/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

SAT...POSITIVE TILT S/W TROUGH ACROSS WILL MOVE FROM E TX TWD LA/AL
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO
ONSHORE WITH SOME LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FAVORED ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
IN THE MORNING. EXPECT MARINE STRATOCU TO HAVE PUSHED WELL INLAND BY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE FL COAST TWD EVENING. OVERALL EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH MILDER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S NRN
AREAS AND LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT-SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ACTIVE SOUTHERN
JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES AS DEEPENING S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE FL COAST THAT WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT
LIFTS NE SUN. LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME N-NE
INTO LATE SAT AFT AND EVE...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS POPS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INDICATED BY SAT AFT (RAIN CHANCES
30-40%)... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO SAT
EVENING (UP TO 60-80%). RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LIFTS NE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK TOO HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS BREEZY/WINDY N/NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DRAGS
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SAT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW-MID 60S ORLANDO
NORTHWARD TO LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-THU...COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS SERIES OF COLD/REINFORCING FRONTS ALLOW FOR A PREDOMINANT
W/NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID
60S MON...THEN 50S TO LOW 60S TUE/WED AND BACK TO LOW-MID 60S THU.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MID-UPPER 30S
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

MARINE STRATOCU HAS MOVED ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 3 KFT AND WILL PUSH GRADUALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CHC
FOR BKN CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KDAB/KSUA FOR SAT MORNING WHERE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SAT...N WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS
BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCA IN PLACE AND LET EVENING SHIFT
ASSESS TRENDS FOR ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
ADVISORY TO GULF STREAM INTO SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT FCST.
ON SAT...ONSHORE FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT NEARSHORE AND AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE.

SAT-SUN...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE FL
COAST LATE SAT AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO SAT NIGHT-SUN AS IT LIFTS
NE. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE E/NE SAT MORNING AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME N/NW AND RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SAT NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS
...POTENTIALLY VERY HAZARDOUS...BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MON-TUE...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW MIN
RH`S FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  66  47  57 /  20  30  60  10
MCO  49  72  47  58 /  10  30  60  10
MLB  53  71  51  60 /  20  30  70  10
VRB  55  73  52  60 /  20  40  70  10
LEE  45  67  43  58 /  10  30  50  10
SFB  48  68  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
ORL  50  69  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
FPR  55  74  52  60 /  20  40  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
     NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMLB 060331
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...

UPDATE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS SLIDING EAST...
WITH SYNOPTIC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE. N-NW DRAINAGE WIND HAS SET
UP OVER LAND AS TEMPS THERE HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U40S-50F. A LOCAL
"BATTLEGROUND" OF SORTS SITS ALONG THE COAST - WINDS AT DAB/MLB
SNAPPED BACK AROUND TO NW...WHICH ALLOWED THEIR TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO
THE L50S...WHILE VRB-FPR-SUA AND THE BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS ARE ALL
IN THE M-U60S. WAA/UPGLIDE APPARENT ON 00Z MFL SOUNDING OCCURRING AT
THE SUBSIDENCE CAP LEVEL...AROUND H85-H80. RESULTANT NWD EXPANSION
OF CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH FL ALONG THE TREASURE COAST CAN BE SEEN IN
3.9UM IMAGERY.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE
DISPARITY IN MINS OVER THE COASTAL COS...AND THE MAIN UPDATE WILL BE
TO EMPHASIZE THIS LARGE RANGE. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE SMALL COASTAL
POP. IT`S PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT THE ENTIRE GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES
LOCAL/MESO MODEL SUITE IS MUCH...MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIP FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLC AND ITS ADVECTION ONSHORE. JUST
ABOUT EVERY PIECE OF GUIDANCE HAD -SHRA REACHING THE COAST BY 03Z...
YET THE 88D IS ECHO FREE WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLC ATTM. HAD MADE
A LATE AFTN ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDS/ZFP TO PUSH TIMING OF ONSET OVER THE
ATLC BACK TO 04Z AND ALONG THE COAST AROUND 08Z...AND THIS APPEARS
TO BE WORKING OUT WELL THUS FAR. STILL EXPECTING ENHANCED COASTAL
CONVERGENCE INVOF THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH COUPLED
WITH SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO EVENTUALLY ALLOW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO BREAK OUT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND QUICKLY PUSH ONSHORE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN035-045 SPREADING INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH
AREAS OVC040 SPREAD NWD SUA-MLB. VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND
AFT 06Z...WITH --SHRA/-SHRA DVLPG OVER THE ATLC BY THAT TIME...
AND EXPECTED TO INVOF THE COASTAL AERODROMES BY 09Z-12Z. VCSH FOR
MOST AREAS (LOWEST CHC LEE-ISM) DVLPG BY 15Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SEA BUILDING TO 5-7FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10FT OFFSHORE AS
NRLY WINDS OF 20-25KT VEER TO NE.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WEATHER...LASCODY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

...COOL/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

SAT...POSITIVE TILT S/W TROUGH ACROSS WILL MOVE FROM E TX TWD LA/AL
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO
ONSHORE WITH SOME LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FAVORED ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
IN THE MORNING. EXPECT MARINE STRATOCU TO HAVE PUSHED WELL INLAND BY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE FL COAST TWD EVENING. OVERALL EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH MILDER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S NRN
AREAS AND LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT-SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ACTIVE SOUTHERN
JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES AS DEEPENING S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE FL COAST THAT WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT
LIFTS NE SUN. LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME N-NE
INTO LATE SAT AFT AND EVE...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS POPS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INDICATED BY SAT AFT (RAIN CHANCES
30-40%)... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO SAT
EVENING (UP TO 60-80%). RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LIFTS NE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK TOO HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS BREEZY/WINDY N/NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DRAGS
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SAT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW-MID 60S ORLANDO
NORTHWARD TO LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-THU...COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS SERIES OF COLD/REINFORCING FRONTS ALLOW FOR A PREDOMINANT
W/NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID
60S MON...THEN 50S TO LOW 60S TUE/WED AND BACK TO LOW-MID 60S THU.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MID-UPPER 30S
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

MARINE STRATOCU HAS MOVED ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 3 KFT AND WILL PUSH GRADUALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CHC
FOR BKN CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KDAB/KSUA FOR SAT MORNING WHERE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SAT...N WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS
BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCA IN PLACE AND LET EVENING SHIFT
ASSESS TRENDS FOR ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
ADVISORY TO GULF STREAM INTO SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT FCST.
ON SAT...ONSHORE FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT NEARSHORE AND AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE.

SAT-SUN...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE FL
COAST LATE SAT AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO SAT NIGHT-SUN AS IT LIFTS
NE. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE E/NE SAT MORNING AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME N/NW AND RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SAT NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS
...POTENTIALLY VERY HAZARDOUS...BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MON-TUE...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW MIN
RH`S FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  66  47  57 /  20  30  60  10
MCO  49  72  47  58 /  10  30  60  10
MLB  53  71  51  60 /  20  30  70  10
VRB  55  73  52  60 /  20  40  70  10
LEE  45  67  43  58 /  10  30  50  10
SFB  48  68  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
ORL  50  69  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
FPR  55  74  52  60 /  20  40  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
     NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMLB 060331
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...

UPDATE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS SLIDING EAST...
WITH SYNOPTIC WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NE. N-NW DRAINAGE WIND HAS SET
UP OVER LAND AS TEMPS THERE HAVE FALLEN INTO THE U40S-50F. A LOCAL
"BATTLEGROUND" OF SORTS SITS ALONG THE COAST - WINDS AT DAB/MLB
SNAPPED BACK AROUND TO NW...WHICH ALLOWED THEIR TEMPS TO PLUMMET TO
THE L50S...WHILE VRB-FPR-SUA AND THE BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS ARE ALL
IN THE M-U60S. WAA/UPGLIDE APPARENT ON 00Z MFL SOUNDING OCCURRING AT
THE SUBSIDENCE CAP LEVEL...AROUND H85-H80. RESULTANT NWD EXPANSION
OF CLOUD DECK FROM SOUTH FL ALONG THE TREASURE COAST CAN BE SEEN IN
3.9UM IMAGERY.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE
DISPARITY IN MINS OVER THE COASTAL COS...AND THE MAIN UPDATE WILL BE
TO EMPHASIZE THIS LARGE RANGE. ANOTHER ISSUE IS THE SMALL COASTAL
POP. IT`S PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT THE ENTIRE GLOBAL AND HIGH-RES
LOCAL/MESO MODEL SUITE IS MUCH...MUCH TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LIGHT
PRECIP FCST TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLC AND ITS ADVECTION ONSHORE. JUST
ABOUT EVERY PIECE OF GUIDANCE HAD -SHRA REACHING THE COAST BY 03Z...
YET THE 88D IS ECHO FREE WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE ATLC ATTM. HAD MADE
A LATE AFTN ADJUSTMENT TO GRIDS/ZFP TO PUSH TIMING OF ONSET OVER THE
ATLC BACK TO 04Z AND ALONG THE COAST AROUND 08Z...AND THIS APPEARS
TO BE WORKING OUT WELL THUS FAR. STILL EXPECTING ENHANCED COASTAL
CONVERGENCE INVOF THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH COUPLED
WITH SHALLOW MODIFICATION OF LOW LEVEL AIR MASS TO EVENTUALLY ALLOW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO BREAK OUT OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
AND QUICKLY PUSH ONSHORE TOWARD SUNRISE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. BKN035-045 SPREADING INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH
AREAS OVC040 SPREAD NWD SUA-MLB. VFR CIGS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND
AFT 06Z...WITH --SHRA/-SHRA DVLPG OVER THE ATLC BY THAT TIME...
AND EXPECTED TO INVOF THE COASTAL AERODROMES BY 09Z-12Z. VCSH FOR
MOST AREAS (LOWEST CHC LEE-ISM) DVLPG BY 15Z-16Z.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. SOLID SCA CONDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH SEA BUILDING TO 5-7FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-10FT OFFSHORE AS
NRLY WINDS OF 20-25KT VEER TO NE.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WEATHER...LASCODY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

...COOL/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

SAT...POSITIVE TILT S/W TROUGH ACROSS WILL MOVE FROM E TX TWD LA/AL
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO
ONSHORE WITH SOME LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FAVORED ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
IN THE MORNING. EXPECT MARINE STRATOCU TO HAVE PUSHED WELL INLAND BY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE FL COAST TWD EVENING. OVERALL EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH MILDER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S NRN
AREAS AND LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT-SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ACTIVE SOUTHERN
JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES AS DEEPENING S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE FL COAST THAT WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT
LIFTS NE SUN. LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME N-NE
INTO LATE SAT AFT AND EVE...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS POPS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INDICATED BY SAT AFT (RAIN CHANCES
30-40%)... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO SAT
EVENING (UP TO 60-80%). RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LIFTS NE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK TOO HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS BREEZY/WINDY N/NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DRAGS
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SAT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW-MID 60S ORLANDO
NORTHWARD TO LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-THU...COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS SERIES OF COLD/REINFORCING FRONTS ALLOW FOR A PREDOMINANT
W/NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID
60S MON...THEN 50S TO LOW 60S TUE/WED AND BACK TO LOW-MID 60S THU.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MID-UPPER 30S
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

MARINE STRATOCU HAS MOVED ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 3 KFT AND WILL PUSH GRADUALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CHC
FOR BKN CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KDAB/KSUA FOR SAT MORNING WHERE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SAT...N WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS
BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCA IN PLACE AND LET EVENING SHIFT
ASSESS TRENDS FOR ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
ADVISORY TO GULF STREAM INTO SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT FCST.
ON SAT...ONSHORE FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT NEARSHORE AND AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE.

SAT-SUN...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE FL
COAST LATE SAT AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO SAT NIGHT-SUN AS IT LIFTS
NE. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE E/NE SAT MORNING AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME N/NW AND RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SAT NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS
...POTENTIALLY VERY HAZARDOUS...BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MON-TUE...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW MIN
RH`S FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  66  47  57 /  20  30  60  10
MCO  49  72  47  58 /  10  30  60  10
MLB  53  71  51  60 /  20  30  70  10
VRB  55  73  52  60 /  20  40  70  10
LEE  45  67  43  58 /  10  30  50  10
SFB  48  68  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
ORL  50  69  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
FPR  55  74  52  60 /  20  40  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
     NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KJAX 060230
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...SFC DATA SHOWS BROAD...COOL HIGH PRES RIDGE LOCATED
FROM MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE MID ATLC WITH N TO NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST REGION. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PASSING OVER THE
AREA WHILE GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY WITH A SHARP MID/UPPER POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FROM WRN GREAT
LAKES TO TX.

AS THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE PRODUCING A GRADUAL VEERING OF
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COASTAL SFC TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
WITH INCREASED PRES GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS AND LOCAL MARINE WATERS NW OF TROUGH AXIS. FOR
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO INCREASE COVERAGE AS SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU TOWARD
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z THROUGH 12Z. WHILE WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT
INLAND...THEY MAY INCREASE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. TEMPS ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIN TEMPS DUE
TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN MOS GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED.
THOUGH TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S OVER INLAND SE GA...STIRRING
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HINDER FROST FORMATION
THERE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES AND THE
MARINE WATERS DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SFC TROUGHING AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING STRATOCU CLOUDS SHOWING UP WELL IN THE SATELLITE FOG
CHANNEL WITH BUNNELL AND ST AUGUSTINE INDICATING A BROKEN DECK
AROUND 4000-5000 FT. VEERING WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL LIFT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING STRATO CLOUDS AROUND THE 3000-5000 FT
LEVEL OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFFECTING NE FL TAFS...BUT IMPACT SSI
AROUND THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME. SO THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS AROUND 3000 FT DEVELOPING AT SGJ LATER TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AFTER 08Z) AS CLOUDS THICKEN THERE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES ON SATURDAY
EXCEPT FOR GNV WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS LOWER TO KEPT CIGS CLOSER TO
4000-5000 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME NNE AROUND 10-12G20KT AFTER 12Z
SAT.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA ACROSS THE NRN WATERS WHERE 41008 IS
NE 12G16KT...BUT SAUF1 NEAR 25 KT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZARDS
AS WINDS WILL BE ON A INCREASING TREND...MAINLY FOR THE NRN WATERS
AS COASTAL TROUGH AND EVENTUAL LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  33  49  36  56 /   0  20  30  10
SSI  38  51  38  54 /   0  30  50  20
JAX  38  54  38  56 /  10  30  50  20
SGJ  47  59  43  55 /  20  40  60  20
GNV  38  58  37  56 /  10  20  40  10
OCF  42  60  40  58 /  10  30  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 060230
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...SFC DATA SHOWS BROAD...COOL HIGH PRES RIDGE LOCATED
FROM MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE MID ATLC WITH N TO NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST REGION. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PASSING OVER THE
AREA WHILE GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY WITH A SHARP MID/UPPER POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FROM WRN GREAT
LAKES TO TX.

AS THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE PRODUCING A GRADUAL VEERING OF
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COASTAL SFC TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
WITH INCREASED PRES GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS AND LOCAL MARINE WATERS NW OF TROUGH AXIS. FOR
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO INCREASE COVERAGE AS SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU TOWARD
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z THROUGH 12Z. WHILE WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT
INLAND...THEY MAY INCREASE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. TEMPS ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIN TEMPS DUE
TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN MOS GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED.
THOUGH TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S OVER INLAND SE GA...STIRRING
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HINDER FROST FORMATION
THERE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES AND THE
MARINE WATERS DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SFC TROUGHING AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING STRATOCU CLOUDS SHOWING UP WELL IN THE SATELLITE FOG
CHANNEL WITH BUNNELL AND ST AUGUSTINE INDICATING A BROKEN DECK
AROUND 4000-5000 FT. VEERING WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL LIFT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING STRATO CLOUDS AROUND THE 3000-5000 FT
LEVEL OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFFECTING NE FL TAFS...BUT IMPACT SSI
AROUND THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME. SO THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS AROUND 3000 FT DEVELOPING AT SGJ LATER TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AFTER 08Z) AS CLOUDS THICKEN THERE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES ON SATURDAY
EXCEPT FOR GNV WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS LOWER TO KEPT CIGS CLOSER TO
4000-5000 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME NNE AROUND 10-12G20KT AFTER 12Z
SAT.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA ACROSS THE NRN WATERS WHERE 41008 IS
NE 12G16KT...BUT SAUF1 NEAR 25 KT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZARDS
AS WINDS WILL BE ON A INCREASING TREND...MAINLY FOR THE NRN WATERS
AS COASTAL TROUGH AND EVENTUAL LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  33  49  36  56 /   0  20  30  10
SSI  38  51  38  54 /   0  30  50  20
JAX  38  54  38  56 /  10  30  50  20
SGJ  47  59  43  55 /  20  40  60  20
GNV  38  58  37  56 /  10  20  40  10
OCF  42  60  40  58 /  10  30  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 060230
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...SFC DATA SHOWS BROAD...COOL HIGH PRES RIDGE LOCATED
FROM MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE MID ATLC WITH N TO NE FLOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST REGION. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PASSING OVER THE
AREA WHILE GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THROUGH THE MS
VALLEY WITH A SHARP MID/UPPER POSITIVE TILT TROUGH FROM WRN GREAT
LAKES TO TX.

AS THE CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD...SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER
THE LOCAL AREA WILL MOVE OFFSHORE PRODUCING A GRADUAL VEERING OF
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR OUR CWA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COASTAL SFC TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
WITH INCREASED PRES GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS AND LOCAL MARINE WATERS NW OF TROUGH AXIS. FOR
UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO INCREASE COVERAGE AS SHORT
RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU TOWARD
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z THROUGH 12Z. WHILE WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT
INLAND...THEY MAY INCREASE A BIT LATER TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. TEMPS ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIN TEMPS DUE
TO HIGHER DEWPOINTS THAN MOS GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED.
THOUGH TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S OVER INLAND SE GA...STIRRING
LOW LEVEL WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS MAY HINDER FROST FORMATION
THERE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SE ZONES AND THE
MARINE WATERS DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF SFC TROUGHING AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING STRATOCU CLOUDS SHOWING UP WELL IN THE SATELLITE FOG
CHANNEL WITH BUNNELL AND ST AUGUSTINE INDICATING A BROKEN DECK
AROUND 4000-5000 FT. VEERING WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL LIFT
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING STRATO CLOUDS AROUND THE 3000-5000 FT
LEVEL OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY AFFECTING NE FL TAFS...BUT IMPACT SSI
AROUND THE 11Z-15Z TIME FRAME. SO THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR
CIGS AROUND 3000 FT DEVELOPING AT SGJ LATER TONIGHT (ROUGHLY
AFTER 08Z) AS CLOUDS THICKEN THERE. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON
SATURDAY WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES ON SATURDAY
EXCEPT FOR GNV WHERE CONFIDENCE WAS LOWER TO KEPT CIGS CLOSER TO
4000-5000 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME NNE AROUND 10-12G20KT AFTER 12Z
SAT.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA ACROSS THE NRN WATERS WHERE 41008 IS
NE 12G16KT...BUT SAUF1 NEAR 25 KT. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT HAZARDS
AS WINDS WILL BE ON A INCREASING TREND...MAINLY FOR THE NRN WATERS
AS COASTAL TROUGH AND EVENTUAL LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  33  49  36  56 /   0  20  30  10
SSI  38  51  38  54 /   0  30  50  20
JAX  38  54  38  56 /  10  30  50  20
SGJ  47  59  43  55 /  20  40  60  20
GNV  38  58  37  56 /  10  20  40  10
OCF  42  60  40  58 /  10  30  40  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/PETERSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KTBW 060143
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE (OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS THIS EVENING. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
FORMS A STEEP LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES...BEFORE
DIVING QUICKLY BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO A SHARP PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE FLOW THEN
FINALLY RIDGES BACK UP INTO THE APPALACHIANS IN THE WAKE OF
STORMINESS EXITING THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
MID-SECTION THE COUNTY WILL KEEP OUR FORECAST CHANGING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS IT APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE STATE. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WE FIND A STRONG PIECE OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PIVOTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DURING SATURDAY AND ARRIVE OVER OUR HEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG
ENERGY PASSING OVER THE WARMER BAROCLINIC WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL THEN QUICKLY MIGRATE
TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE BECOMING QUITE
A LARGE AND POTENT OCEAN STORM DURING SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE ON
SOME POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM TO OUR AREA SATURDAY BELOW...
BUT FIRST LETS LOOK AT THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

THE ATMOSPHERE SURE HAS DRIED OUT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH THE CROSSED THE REGION LAST NIGHT. PW VALUES
LAST NIGHT WERE NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND NOW
ARE RUNNING NEAR RECORD LOWS. THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING THIS EVENING
CAME IN WITH AN EXTREMELY LOW PW VALUE OF ONLY 0.15". THIS IS
PRETTY DRAMATIC GIVEN THAT THE 10TH PERCENTILE VALUE FOR THE DATE
IS AROUND 0.40". THIS IS A VERY DRY TROPOSPHERE UNDER ANY
CIRCUMSTANCES. VIEWING THE SOUNDING CONFIRMS THE PW NUMBERS WITH
VERY LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENT OF THE
COLUMN ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
PROFILE AND NO SYNOPTIC LIFT TO SPEAK OF...THAT OUR SKIES ARE
CLEAR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CLOUDS DOWN OVER FAR
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THESE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH WITH A GENERAL MOISTURE SURGE LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY. HOWEVER...FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FORECAST WILL BE RAIN-FREE FOR ALL ZONES
WITH SEASONABLE COOL TEMPS.

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN GULF DURING
SATURDAY WITH HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLOUD
OVER AS LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMES MORE
DEFINED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LOOKS
DRY...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY...THE MORE
ROBUST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT/DEEP LAYER QG FORCING AND UPPER
DIFFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO LINE UP OVER THE REGION. EVEN WITH SOME
FAIRLY HEALTHY DYNAMICS FOR LIFT...THE MOISTURE THROUGH A DEEP
LAYER WILL NOT BE ALL THAT FAVORABLE. THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE
DYNAMICS MIGHT NORMALLY SUGGEST A HEALTHY RAINFALL EVENT...THIS
ONE IS LIKELY TO NOT LIVE UP TO ANYTHING MORE THAN A SCATTERING
OF AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THE
BEST COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD EXIST SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS OUR ZONES
LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. LATE IN THE DAY / EVENING...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. AS THIS LOW WRAPS UP SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SEE THE
SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE STORM
BRINGING DRIER AIR BACK DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON GUSTY WINDS.

BY SUNDAY THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM WILL BE EXITING AWAY FROM
THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH A DRY...COOL...AND BREEZY
DAY ON TAP TO END THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. WILL SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE NIGHT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
CIGS BETWEEN 3-5KFT BY DAWN...ESPECIALLY FOR KPGD/KFMY/FRSW. HAVE
GONE WITH PREVAILING MVFR 2-3KFT CIGS WITH SCT LIGHT SHOWERS FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOS RESTRICTIONS ARE LOWER BUT
SEEM OVERDONE FOR THE PATTERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST
WITH FUTURE FORECASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
RESIDUAL SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE BACK
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON
MONDAY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IF ANY WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. WINDS AGAIN WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS LATE MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  47  64  46  58 /  10  30  30  10
FMY  52  72  51  61 /  10  40  50  10
GIF  49  68  45  59 /  10  40  50  10
SRQ  49  65  50  58 /  10  40  30  10
BKV  43  63  41  58 /  10  30  40  10
SPG  50  63  49  57 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...RUDE
UPPER AIR/DATA QUALITY CONTROL...DAVIS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 060129
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The current forecast is on track, and we expect clear skies and
temperatures near freezing by dawn.

&&

.Prev Discussion [631 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The synoptic pattern on Saturday will be characterized by surface
ridging across the Southeast, and southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of a shortwave over the Southern Plains. Through Sunday morning,
the shortwave will move through the northern Gulf, and through the
western Atlantic to a point of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday
morning. A thin stable layer between 750-850mb will prevent
surface cyclogenesis as the wave passes through the northern Gulf,
but a strong surface low is expected to quickly spin-up as the
wave reaches the western Atlantic. So essentially, this wave will
have very little effect on the sensible weather locally but for
the anomalously cool 850mb temps on Sunday (more in a minute).
There will be a slight chance for rain on Saturday afternoon/early
evening as low-layer flow veers southeast and forces Atlantic
moisture up over a cooler airmass across the Tri-State region.
This will likely result in very light rain across the eastern Big
Bend and parts of extreme south-central Georgia, with cloud cover
spreading a bit farther west. The clouds and light rain will keep
afternoon temperatures quite cool in this region; currently
forecast to peak in the mid to upper 40s. Elsewhere, partly cloudy
to sunny skies should allow highs to warm into the middle 50s.
Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to be in the middle 30s
with gradually clearing skies. On Sunday, the cold temperatures
aloft will mix to the surface and keep highs in the mid 50s just
about everywhere. For some reference, this is about 10 degrees
below average but will be similar to the previous few afternoons.
Rain is not expected on Sunday, with mostly clear skies
prevailing.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

A large upper low will gradually move east through the Great Lakes
region and the Northeast through the extended range. A shortwave
rotating around the low will force a cold front through the Tri-
State region Monday into Tuesday. At this time, QPF is not
expected locally. Though it should be noted that not far to our
north, a rain snow mix will be possible, with light rain being the
expected precip type should rain make it this far south. In
general, dry and cool conditions are expected for much of the
extended range.


.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Unrestricted Vis/unlimited cigs will
continue through early Saturday. Clouds will increase over north
FL and south GA on Saturday, gradually lowering to 3-5k ft during
the afternoon at KTLH and KVLD. Light rain will develop at KVLD
Saturday afternoon, but is unlikely to adversely affect Vis. Light
N winds (less than 10 KT) will persist through the period.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions continue across mainly our offshore waters
this afternoon, and primarily in seas. The past few obs have shown
just below advisory level winds, though gusts above 20 knots were
noted. The current 00z expiration of the Small Craft Advisory will
hold. Thereafter, winds and seas will likely remain below
headline levels through Sunday night, though a brief uptick in
winds on Saturday night will be possible as low pressure begins to
develop in the western Atlantic. In the wake of a front on Monday,
strong advisory conditions are expected through Tuesday night
before falling off once again to finish next week.


.Fire Weather...

No concerns.


.Hydrology...

In the wake of widespread heavy rainfall this week, many area
rivers continue to gradually rise. Flooding continues today
along the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. Additional
rises into flood stage are expected on the Choctawhatchee at
Geneva and Bruce, the Ochlockonee at Thomasville, the Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson, the Flint River at Bainbridge this weekend.
Flooding will also be possible this weekend or early next week on
the Ochlockonee River at Concord and on the Withlacoochee at
Quitman. Elsewhere, rivers should peak below flood stage. With
very low chances of rain for the next seven days, rivers are
expected to gradually return to more normal levels over the next
week. The one possible exception is the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, where upstream dam releases may prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   31  50  35  56  39 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   35  55  41  57  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        31  54  34  57  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        28  51  34  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      34  46  36  54  37 /   0  30  20   0   0
Cross City    34  52  38  56  40 /   0  30  20   0   0
Apalachicola  35  56  41  57  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
     CST/ Saturday FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
     North Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Saturday FOR Coastal Gulf.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 060129
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The current forecast is on track, and we expect clear skies and
temperatures near freezing by dawn.

&&

.Prev Discussion [631 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The synoptic pattern on Saturday will be characterized by surface
ridging across the Southeast, and southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of a shortwave over the Southern Plains. Through Sunday morning,
the shortwave will move through the northern Gulf, and through the
western Atlantic to a point of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday
morning. A thin stable layer between 750-850mb will prevent
surface cyclogenesis as the wave passes through the northern Gulf,
but a strong surface low is expected to quickly spin-up as the
wave reaches the western Atlantic. So essentially, this wave will
have very little effect on the sensible weather locally but for
the anomalously cool 850mb temps on Sunday (more in a minute).
There will be a slight chance for rain on Saturday afternoon/early
evening as low-layer flow veers southeast and forces Atlantic
moisture up over a cooler airmass across the Tri-State region.
This will likely result in very light rain across the eastern Big
Bend and parts of extreme south-central Georgia, with cloud cover
spreading a bit farther west. The clouds and light rain will keep
afternoon temperatures quite cool in this region; currently
forecast to peak in the mid to upper 40s. Elsewhere, partly cloudy
to sunny skies should allow highs to warm into the middle 50s.
Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to be in the middle 30s
with gradually clearing skies. On Sunday, the cold temperatures
aloft will mix to the surface and keep highs in the mid 50s just
about everywhere. For some reference, this is about 10 degrees
below average but will be similar to the previous few afternoons.
Rain is not expected on Sunday, with mostly clear skies
prevailing.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

A large upper low will gradually move east through the Great Lakes
region and the Northeast through the extended range. A shortwave
rotating around the low will force a cold front through the Tri-
State region Monday into Tuesday. At this time, QPF is not
expected locally. Though it should be noted that not far to our
north, a rain snow mix will be possible, with light rain being the
expected precip type should rain make it this far south. In
general, dry and cool conditions are expected for much of the
extended range.


.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Unrestricted Vis/unlimited cigs will
continue through early Saturday. Clouds will increase over north
FL and south GA on Saturday, gradually lowering to 3-5k ft during
the afternoon at KTLH and KVLD. Light rain will develop at KVLD
Saturday afternoon, but is unlikely to adversely affect Vis. Light
N winds (less than 10 KT) will persist through the period.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions continue across mainly our offshore waters
this afternoon, and primarily in seas. The past few obs have shown
just below advisory level winds, though gusts above 20 knots were
noted. The current 00z expiration of the Small Craft Advisory will
hold. Thereafter, winds and seas will likely remain below
headline levels through Sunday night, though a brief uptick in
winds on Saturday night will be possible as low pressure begins to
develop in the western Atlantic. In the wake of a front on Monday,
strong advisory conditions are expected through Tuesday night
before falling off once again to finish next week.


.Fire Weather...

No concerns.


.Hydrology...

In the wake of widespread heavy rainfall this week, many area
rivers continue to gradually rise. Flooding continues today
along the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. Additional
rises into flood stage are expected on the Choctawhatchee at
Geneva and Bruce, the Ochlockonee at Thomasville, the Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson, the Flint River at Bainbridge this weekend.
Flooding will also be possible this weekend or early next week on
the Ochlockonee River at Concord and on the Withlacoochee at
Quitman. Elsewhere, rivers should peak below flood stage. With
very low chances of rain for the next seven days, rivers are
expected to gradually return to more normal levels over the next
week. The one possible exception is the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, where upstream dam releases may prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   31  50  35  56  39 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   35  55  41  57  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        31  54  34  57  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        28  51  34  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      34  46  36  54  37 /   0  30  20   0   0
Cross City    34  52  38  56  40 /   0  30  20   0   0
Apalachicola  35  56  41  57  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
     CST/ Saturday FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
     North Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Saturday FOR Coastal Gulf.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 060129
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
829 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The current forecast is on track, and we expect clear skies and
temperatures near freezing by dawn.

&&

.Prev Discussion [631 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The synoptic pattern on Saturday will be characterized by surface
ridging across the Southeast, and southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of a shortwave over the Southern Plains. Through Sunday morning,
the shortwave will move through the northern Gulf, and through the
western Atlantic to a point of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday
morning. A thin stable layer between 750-850mb will prevent
surface cyclogenesis as the wave passes through the northern Gulf,
but a strong surface low is expected to quickly spin-up as the
wave reaches the western Atlantic. So essentially, this wave will
have very little effect on the sensible weather locally but for
the anomalously cool 850mb temps on Sunday (more in a minute).
There will be a slight chance for rain on Saturday afternoon/early
evening as low-layer flow veers southeast and forces Atlantic
moisture up over a cooler airmass across the Tri-State region.
This will likely result in very light rain across the eastern Big
Bend and parts of extreme south-central Georgia, with cloud cover
spreading a bit farther west. The clouds and light rain will keep
afternoon temperatures quite cool in this region; currently
forecast to peak in the mid to upper 40s. Elsewhere, partly cloudy
to sunny skies should allow highs to warm into the middle 50s.
Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to be in the middle 30s
with gradually clearing skies. On Sunday, the cold temperatures
aloft will mix to the surface and keep highs in the mid 50s just
about everywhere. For some reference, this is about 10 degrees
below average but will be similar to the previous few afternoons.
Rain is not expected on Sunday, with mostly clear skies
prevailing.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

A large upper low will gradually move east through the Great Lakes
region and the Northeast through the extended range. A shortwave
rotating around the low will force a cold front through the Tri-
State region Monday into Tuesday. At this time, QPF is not
expected locally. Though it should be noted that not far to our
north, a rain snow mix will be possible, with light rain being the
expected precip type should rain make it this far south. In
general, dry and cool conditions are expected for much of the
extended range.


.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Unrestricted Vis/unlimited cigs will
continue through early Saturday. Clouds will increase over north
FL and south GA on Saturday, gradually lowering to 3-5k ft during
the afternoon at KTLH and KVLD. Light rain will develop at KVLD
Saturday afternoon, but is unlikely to adversely affect Vis. Light
N winds (less than 10 KT) will persist through the period.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions continue across mainly our offshore waters
this afternoon, and primarily in seas. The past few obs have shown
just below advisory level winds, though gusts above 20 knots were
noted. The current 00z expiration of the Small Craft Advisory will
hold. Thereafter, winds and seas will likely remain below
headline levels through Sunday night, though a brief uptick in
winds on Saturday night will be possible as low pressure begins to
develop in the western Atlantic. In the wake of a front on Monday,
strong advisory conditions are expected through Tuesday night
before falling off once again to finish next week.


.Fire Weather...

No concerns.


.Hydrology...

In the wake of widespread heavy rainfall this week, many area
rivers continue to gradually rise. Flooding continues today
along the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. Additional
rises into flood stage are expected on the Choctawhatchee at
Geneva and Bruce, the Ochlockonee at Thomasville, the Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson, the Flint River at Bainbridge this weekend.
Flooding will also be possible this weekend or early next week on
the Ochlockonee River at Concord and on the Withlacoochee at
Quitman. Elsewhere, rivers should peak below flood stage. With
very low chances of rain for the next seven days, rivers are
expected to gradually return to more normal levels over the next
week. The one possible exception is the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, where upstream dam releases may prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   31  50  35  56  39 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   35  55  41  57  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        31  54  34  57  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        28  51  34  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      34  46  36  54  37 /   0  30  20   0   0
Cross City    34  52  38  56  40 /   0  30  20   0   0
Apalachicola  35  56  41  57  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
     CST/ Saturday FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
     North Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Saturday FOR Coastal Gulf.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 060021 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS.
THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE BELOW 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE DROP FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
EXCEPT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE SEAS BEING ABOVE 7 FEET
TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3500 FT EAST COAST WITH SKC AT
KAPF...BUT CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE THERE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, BUT THE
MAIN RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH SAT
EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CIGS AND VIS COULD PREVAIL. FOR
NOW, HAVE INSERTED PROB30 EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME BUT THIS
LIKELY WILL BECOME TEMPO AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING IN TIME. BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. TSRA IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST BUT THIS WILL BE ASSESSED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
TONIGHT. /GREGORIA

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

.VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
.COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL THEN
BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA THAN FORECAST THEN THUNDER MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IN LATER UPDATES.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
EXCEPT UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH THE METRO AREAS BEING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
METRO PALM BEACH AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THEY WILL BE
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA WILL MORE LIKELY COME
BACK TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  76  52  63 /  20  50  80  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  77  55  64 /  20  60  80  10
MIAMI            64  77  56  65 /  20  60  80  10
NAPLES           54  72  54  61 /  10  40  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 060021 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS.
THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE BELOW 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE DROP FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
EXCEPT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE SEAS BEING ABOVE 7 FEET
TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3500 FT EAST COAST WITH SKC AT
KAPF...BUT CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE THERE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, BUT THE
MAIN RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH SAT
EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CIGS AND VIS COULD PREVAIL. FOR
NOW, HAVE INSERTED PROB30 EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME BUT THIS
LIKELY WILL BECOME TEMPO AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING IN TIME. BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. TSRA IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST BUT THIS WILL BE ASSESSED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
TONIGHT. /GREGORIA

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

.VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
.COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL THEN
BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA THAN FORECAST THEN THUNDER MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IN LATER UPDATES.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
EXCEPT UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH THE METRO AREAS BEING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
METRO PALM BEACH AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THEY WILL BE
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA WILL MORE LIKELY COME
BACK TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  76  52  63 /  20  50  80  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  77  55  64 /  20  60  80  10
MIAMI            64  77  56  65 /  20  60  80  10
NAPLES           54  72  54  61 /  10  40  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 060021 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE ZONE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS TO DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING DRY CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS.
THE WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE BELOW 20 KNOTS LATER THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE DROP FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
EXCEPT FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE SEAS BEING ABOVE 7 FEET
TONIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3500 FT EAST COAST WITH SKC AT
KAPF...BUT CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE THERE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, BUT THE
MAIN RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH SAT
EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CIGS AND VIS COULD PREVAIL. FOR
NOW, HAVE INSERTED PROB30 EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME BUT THIS
LIKELY WILL BECOME TEMPO AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING IN TIME. BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. TSRA IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST BUT THIS WILL BE ASSESSED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
TONIGHT. /GREGORIA

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

.VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
.COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL THEN
BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA THAN FORECAST THEN THUNDER MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IN LATER UPDATES.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
EXCEPT UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH THE METRO AREAS BEING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
METRO PALM BEACH AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THEY WILL BE
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA WILL MORE LIKELY COME
BACK TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  76  52  63 /  20  50  80  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  77  55  64 /  20  60  80  10
MIAMI            64  77  56  65 /  20  60  80  10
NAPLES           54  72  54  61 /  10  40  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 060004
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
704 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3500 FT EAST COAST WITH SKC AT
KAPF...BUT CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE THERE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, BUT THE
MAIN RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH SAT
EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CIGS AND VIS COULD PREVAIL. FOR
NOW, HAVE INSERTED PROB30 EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME BUT THIS
LIKELY WILL BECOME TEMPO AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING IN TIME. BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. TSRA IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST BUT THIS WILL BE ASSESSED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
TONIGHT. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

..VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
..COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL THEN
BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA THAN FORECAST THEN THUNDER MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IN LATER UPDATES.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
EXCEPT UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH THE METRO AREAS BEING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
METRO PALM BEACH AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THEY WILL BE
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA WILL MORE LIKELY COME
BACK TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  76  52  63 /  20  50  80  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  77  55  64 /  20  60  80  10
MIAMI            64  77  56  65 /  20  60  80  10
NAPLES           54  72  54  61 /  10  40  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 060004
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
704 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3500 FT EAST COAST WITH SKC AT
KAPF...BUT CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE THERE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, BUT THE
MAIN RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH SAT
EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CIGS AND VIS COULD PREVAIL. FOR
NOW, HAVE INSERTED PROB30 EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME BUT THIS
LIKELY WILL BECOME TEMPO AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING IN TIME. BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. TSRA IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST BUT THIS WILL BE ASSESSED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
TONIGHT. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

..VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
..COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL THEN
BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA THAN FORECAST THEN THUNDER MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IN LATER UPDATES.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
EXCEPT UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH THE METRO AREAS BEING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
METRO PALM BEACH AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THEY WILL BE
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA WILL MORE LIKELY COME
BACK TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  76  52  63 /  20  50  80  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  77  55  64 /  20  60  80  10
MIAMI            64  77  56  65 /  20  60  80  10
NAPLES           54  72  54  61 /  10  40  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 060004
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
704 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS ARE AVERAGING AROUND 3500 FT EAST COAST WITH SKC AT
KAPF...BUT CLOUD DECK WILL INCREASE THERE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHRA
ARE POSSIBLE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT MORNING, BUT THE
MAIN RAIN THREAT LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH SAT
EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, MVFR CIGS AND VIS COULD PREVAIL. FOR
NOW, HAVE INSERTED PROB30 EAST COAST DURING THIS TIME BUT THIS
LIKELY WILL BECOME TEMPO AND POSSIBLY PREVAILING IN TIME. BRIEF
IFR IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT/SAT NIGHT. TSRA IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE
FORECAST BUT THIS WILL BE ASSESSED WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
TONIGHT. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

..VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
..COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL THEN
BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA THAN FORECAST THEN THUNDER MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IN LATER UPDATES.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
EXCEPT UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH THE METRO AREAS BEING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
METRO PALM BEACH AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THEY WILL BE
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA WILL MORE LIKELY COME
BACK TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  76  52  63 /  20  50  80  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  77  55  64 /  20  60  80  10
MIAMI            64  77  56  65 /  20  60  80  10
NAPLES           54  72  54  61 /  10  40  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KTAE 052331
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
631 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Unrestricted Vis/unlimited cigs will
continue through early Saturday. Clouds will increase over north
FL and south GA on Saturday, gradually lowering to 3-5k ft during
the afternoon at KTLH and KVLD. Light rain will develop at KVLD
Saturday afternoon, but is unlikely to adversely affect Vis. Light
N winds (less than 10 KT) will persist through the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [322 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Surface high pressure centered just to our west early this
afternoon will lift to our north overnight. While we won`t see
ideal radiational cooling as winds will stay light from the
northeast, the air mass is very dry with dew points across the
region currently in the teens. We are upgrading the freeze watch
to a warning and expanding it further south and east. Increasing
clouds from the east toward daybreak should keep temps above
freezing for some of our easternmost zones. Minimum temps outside
of the freeze will generally be in the mid 30s.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The synoptic pattern on Saturday will be characterized by surface
ridging across the Southeast, and southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of a shortwave over the Southern Plains. Through Sunday morning,
the shortwave will move through the northern Gulf, and through the
western Atlantic to a point of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday
morning. A thin stable layer between 750-850mb will prevent
surface cyclogenesis as the wave passes through the northern Gulf,
but a strong surface low is expected to quickly spin-up as the
wave reaches the western Atlantic. So essentially, this wave will
have very little effect on the sensible weather locally but for
the anomalously cool 850mb temps on Sunday (more in a minute).
There will be a slight chance for rain on Saturday afternoon/early
evening as low-layer flow veers southeast and forces Atlantic
moisture up over a cooler airmass across the Tri-State region.
This will likely result in very light rain across the eastern Big
Bend and parts of extreme south-central Georgia, with cloud cover
spreading a bit farther west. The clouds and light rain will keep
afternoon temperatures quite cool in this region; currently
forecast to peak in the mid to upper 40s. Elsewhere, partly cloudy
to sunny skies should allow highs to warm into the middle 50s.
Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to be in the middle 30s
with gradually clearing skies. On Sunday, the cold temperatures
aloft will mix to the surface and keep highs in the mid 50s just
about everywhere. For some reference, this is about 10 degrees
below average but will be similar to the previous few afternoons.
Rain is not expected on Sunday, with mostly clear skies
prevailing.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

A large upper low will gradually move east through the Great Lakes
region and the Northeast through the extended range. A shortwave
rotating around the low will force a cold front through the Tri-
State region Monday into Tuesday. At this time, QPF is not
expected locally. Though it should be noted that not far to our
north, a rain snow mix will be possible, with light rain being the
expected precip type should rain make it this far south. In
general, dry and cool conditions are expected for much of the
extended range.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions continue across mainly our offshore waters
this afternoon, and primarily in seas. The past few obs have shown
just below advisory level winds, though gusts above 20 knots were
noted. The current 00z expiration of the Small Craft Advisory will
hold. Thereafter, winds and seas will likely remain below
headline levels through Sunday night, though a brief uptick in
winds on Saturday night will be possible as low pressure begins to
develop in the western Atlantic. In the wake of a front on Monday,
strong advisory conditions are expected through Tuesday night
before falling off once again to finish next week.


.Fire Weather...

No concerns.


.Hydrology...

In the wake of widespread heavy rainfall this week, many area
rivers continue to gradually rise. Flooding continues today
along the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. Additional
rises into flood stage are expected on the Choctawhatchee at
Geneva and Bruce, the Ochlockonee at Thomasville, the Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson, the Flint River at Bainbridge this weekend.
Flooding will also be possible this weekend or early next week on
the Ochlockonee River at Concord and on the Withlacoochee at
Quitman. Elsewhere, rivers should peak below flood stage. With
very low chances of rain for the next seven days, rivers are
expected to gradually return to more normal levels over the next
week. The one possible exception is the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, where upstream dam releases may prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   31  50  35  56  39 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   35  55  41  57  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        31  54  34  57  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        28  51  34  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      34  46  36  54  37 /   0  30  20   0   0
Cross City    34  52  38  56  40 /   0  30  20   0   0
Apalachicola  35  56  41  57  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
     CST/ Saturday FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
     North Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Saturday FOR Coastal Gulf.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 052331
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
631 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Unrestricted Vis/unlimited cigs will
continue through early Saturday. Clouds will increase over north
FL and south GA on Saturday, gradually lowering to 3-5k ft during
the afternoon at KTLH and KVLD. Light rain will develop at KVLD
Saturday afternoon, but is unlikely to adversely affect Vis. Light
N winds (less than 10 KT) will persist through the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [322 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Surface high pressure centered just to our west early this
afternoon will lift to our north overnight. While we won`t see
ideal radiational cooling as winds will stay light from the
northeast, the air mass is very dry with dew points across the
region currently in the teens. We are upgrading the freeze watch
to a warning and expanding it further south and east. Increasing
clouds from the east toward daybreak should keep temps above
freezing for some of our easternmost zones. Minimum temps outside
of the freeze will generally be in the mid 30s.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The synoptic pattern on Saturday will be characterized by surface
ridging across the Southeast, and southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of a shortwave over the Southern Plains. Through Sunday morning,
the shortwave will move through the northern Gulf, and through the
western Atlantic to a point of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday
morning. A thin stable layer between 750-850mb will prevent
surface cyclogenesis as the wave passes through the northern Gulf,
but a strong surface low is expected to quickly spin-up as the
wave reaches the western Atlantic. So essentially, this wave will
have very little effect on the sensible weather locally but for
the anomalously cool 850mb temps on Sunday (more in a minute).
There will be a slight chance for rain on Saturday afternoon/early
evening as low-layer flow veers southeast and forces Atlantic
moisture up over a cooler airmass across the Tri-State region.
This will likely result in very light rain across the eastern Big
Bend and parts of extreme south-central Georgia, with cloud cover
spreading a bit farther west. The clouds and light rain will keep
afternoon temperatures quite cool in this region; currently
forecast to peak in the mid to upper 40s. Elsewhere, partly cloudy
to sunny skies should allow highs to warm into the middle 50s.
Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to be in the middle 30s
with gradually clearing skies. On Sunday, the cold temperatures
aloft will mix to the surface and keep highs in the mid 50s just
about everywhere. For some reference, this is about 10 degrees
below average but will be similar to the previous few afternoons.
Rain is not expected on Sunday, with mostly clear skies
prevailing.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

A large upper low will gradually move east through the Great Lakes
region and the Northeast through the extended range. A shortwave
rotating around the low will force a cold front through the Tri-
State region Monday into Tuesday. At this time, QPF is not
expected locally. Though it should be noted that not far to our
north, a rain snow mix will be possible, with light rain being the
expected precip type should rain make it this far south. In
general, dry and cool conditions are expected for much of the
extended range.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions continue across mainly our offshore waters
this afternoon, and primarily in seas. The past few obs have shown
just below advisory level winds, though gusts above 20 knots were
noted. The current 00z expiration of the Small Craft Advisory will
hold. Thereafter, winds and seas will likely remain below
headline levels through Sunday night, though a brief uptick in
winds on Saturday night will be possible as low pressure begins to
develop in the western Atlantic. In the wake of a front on Monday,
strong advisory conditions are expected through Tuesday night
before falling off once again to finish next week.


.Fire Weather...

No concerns.


.Hydrology...

In the wake of widespread heavy rainfall this week, many area
rivers continue to gradually rise. Flooding continues today
along the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. Additional
rises into flood stage are expected on the Choctawhatchee at
Geneva and Bruce, the Ochlockonee at Thomasville, the Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson, the Flint River at Bainbridge this weekend.
Flooding will also be possible this weekend or early next week on
the Ochlockonee River at Concord and on the Withlacoochee at
Quitman. Elsewhere, rivers should peak below flood stage. With
very low chances of rain for the next seven days, rivers are
expected to gradually return to more normal levels over the next
week. The one possible exception is the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, where upstream dam releases may prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   31  50  35  56  39 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   35  55  41  57  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        31  54  34  57  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        28  51  34  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      34  46  36  54  37 /   0  30  20   0   0
Cross City    34  52  38  56  40 /   0  30  20   0   0
Apalachicola  35  56  41  57  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
     CST/ Saturday FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
     North Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Saturday FOR Coastal Gulf.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 052331
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
631 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Unrestricted Vis/unlimited cigs will
continue through early Saturday. Clouds will increase over north
FL and south GA on Saturday, gradually lowering to 3-5k ft during
the afternoon at KTLH and KVLD. Light rain will develop at KVLD
Saturday afternoon, but is unlikely to adversely affect Vis. Light
N winds (less than 10 KT) will persist through the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [322 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Surface high pressure centered just to our west early this
afternoon will lift to our north overnight. While we won`t see
ideal radiational cooling as winds will stay light from the
northeast, the air mass is very dry with dew points across the
region currently in the teens. We are upgrading the freeze watch
to a warning and expanding it further south and east. Increasing
clouds from the east toward daybreak should keep temps above
freezing for some of our easternmost zones. Minimum temps outside
of the freeze will generally be in the mid 30s.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The synoptic pattern on Saturday will be characterized by surface
ridging across the Southeast, and southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of a shortwave over the Southern Plains. Through Sunday morning,
the shortwave will move through the northern Gulf, and through the
western Atlantic to a point of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday
morning. A thin stable layer between 750-850mb will prevent
surface cyclogenesis as the wave passes through the northern Gulf,
but a strong surface low is expected to quickly spin-up as the
wave reaches the western Atlantic. So essentially, this wave will
have very little effect on the sensible weather locally but for
the anomalously cool 850mb temps on Sunday (more in a minute).
There will be a slight chance for rain on Saturday afternoon/early
evening as low-layer flow veers southeast and forces Atlantic
moisture up over a cooler airmass across the Tri-State region.
This will likely result in very light rain across the eastern Big
Bend and parts of extreme south-central Georgia, with cloud cover
spreading a bit farther west. The clouds and light rain will keep
afternoon temperatures quite cool in this region; currently
forecast to peak in the mid to upper 40s. Elsewhere, partly cloudy
to sunny skies should allow highs to warm into the middle 50s.
Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to be in the middle 30s
with gradually clearing skies. On Sunday, the cold temperatures
aloft will mix to the surface and keep highs in the mid 50s just
about everywhere. For some reference, this is about 10 degrees
below average but will be similar to the previous few afternoons.
Rain is not expected on Sunday, with mostly clear skies
prevailing.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

A large upper low will gradually move east through the Great Lakes
region and the Northeast through the extended range. A shortwave
rotating around the low will force a cold front through the Tri-
State region Monday into Tuesday. At this time, QPF is not
expected locally. Though it should be noted that not far to our
north, a rain snow mix will be possible, with light rain being the
expected precip type should rain make it this far south. In
general, dry and cool conditions are expected for much of the
extended range.


.Marine...

Advisory conditions continue across mainly our offshore waters
this afternoon, and primarily in seas. The past few obs have shown
just below advisory level winds, though gusts above 20 knots were
noted. The current 00z expiration of the Small Craft Advisory will
hold. Thereafter, winds and seas will likely remain below
headline levels through Sunday night, though a brief uptick in
winds on Saturday night will be possible as low pressure begins to
develop in the western Atlantic. In the wake of a front on Monday,
strong advisory conditions are expected through Tuesday night
before falling off once again to finish next week.


.Fire Weather...

No concerns.


.Hydrology...

In the wake of widespread heavy rainfall this week, many area
rivers continue to gradually rise. Flooding continues today
along the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. Additional
rises into flood stage are expected on the Choctawhatchee at
Geneva and Bruce, the Ochlockonee at Thomasville, the Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson, the Flint River at Bainbridge this weekend.
Flooding will also be possible this weekend or early next week on
the Ochlockonee River at Concord and on the Withlacoochee at
Quitman. Elsewhere, rivers should peak below flood stage. With
very low chances of rain for the next seven days, rivers are
expected to gradually return to more normal levels over the next
week. The one possible exception is the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, where upstream dam releases may prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   31  50  35  56  39 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   35  55  41  57  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        31  54  34  57  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        28  51  34  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      34  46  36  54  37 /   0  30  20   0   0
Cross City    34  52  38  56  40 /   0  30  20   0   0
Apalachicola  35  56  41  57  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
     CST/ Saturday FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
     North Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Saturday FOR Coastal Gulf.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 052038
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
...COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL THEN
BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA THAN FORECAST THEN THUNDER MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IN LATER UPDATES.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
EXCEPT UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH THE METRO AREAS BEING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
METRO PALM BEACH AREAS.


.LONG TERM...
THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THEY WILL BE
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA WILL MORE LIKELY COME
BACK TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  76  52  63 /  20  50  80  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  77  55  64 /  20  60  80  10
MIAMI            64  77  56  65 /  20  60  80  10
NAPLES           54  72  54  61 /  10  40  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 052038
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...
...COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MOVE
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA COAST SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO START TO RETURN TO THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE IN PLACE
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE
INCREASING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. POPS WILL THEN
BE IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO
EAST.

AT THIS TIME...THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...IF THE
LOW IS CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA THAN FORECAST THEN THUNDER MIGHT
HAVE TO BE ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IN LATER UPDATES.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH FOR
SUNDAY ON THE NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY BUT BREEZY TO WINDY.

HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY BEFORE DROPPING
INTO THE 60S FOR SUNDAY. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
WITH TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
LOWS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT UPPER 40S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
EXCEPT UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE
A FACTOR FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS WINDS WILL BE 10
TO 15 MPH WITH THE METRO AREAS BEING IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS TO BE AROUND 40 OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 30S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
METRO PALM BEACH AREAS.


.LONG TERM...
THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LAST LONG OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT QUICKLY TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND IT WILL SWING FROM A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE QUICKLY TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHWEST AS THE LOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
GALE FORCE ON SUNDAY OVER ALL OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THE
SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SEAS
WILL THEN BUILD QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY SUNDAY THEY WILL BE
8 TO 10 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 9 TO 11 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA WILL MORE LIKELY COME
BACK TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  76  52  63 /  20  50  80  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  77  55  64 /  20  60  80  10
MIAMI            64  77  56  65 /  20  60  80  10
NAPLES           54  72  54  61 /  10  40  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KTAE 052022
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Surface high pressure centered just to our west early this
afternoon will lift to our north overnight. While we won`t see
ideal radiational cooling as winds will stay light from the
northeast, the air mass is very dry with dew points across the
region currently in the teens. We are upgrading the freeze watch
to a warning and expanding it further south and east. Increasing
clouds from the east toward daybreak should keep temps above
freezing for some of our easternmost zones. Minimum temps outside
of the freeze will generally be in the mid 30s.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The synoptic pattern on Saturday will be characterized by surface
ridging across the Southeast, and southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of a shortwave over the Southern Plains. Through Sunday morning,
the shortwave will move through the northern Gulf, and through the
western Atlantic to a point of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday
morning. A thin stable layer between 750-850mb will prevent
surface cyclogenesis as the wave passes through the northern Gulf,
but a strong surface low is expected to quickly spin-up as the
wave reaches the western Atlantic. So essentially, this wave will
have very little effect on the sensible weather locally but for
the anomalously cool 850mb temps on Sunday (more in a minute).
There will be a slight chance for rain on Saturday afternoon/early
evening as low-layer flow veers southeast and forces Atlantic
moisture up over a cooler airmass across the Tri-State region.
This will likely result in very light rain across the eastern Big
Bend and parts of extreme south-central Georgia, with cloud cover
spreading a bit farther west. The clouds and light rain will keep
afternoon temperatures quite cool in this region; currently
forecast to peak in the mid to upper 40s. Elsewhere, partly cloudy
to sunny skies should allow highs to warm into the middle 50s.
Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to be in the middle 30s
with gradually clearing skies. On Sunday, the cold temperatures
aloft will mix to the surface and keep highs in the mid 50s just
about everywhere. For some reference, this is about 10 degrees
below average but will be similar to the previous few afternoons.
Rain is not expected on Sunday, with mostly clear skies
prevailing.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

A large upper low will gradually move east through the Great Lakes
region and the Northeast through the extended range. A shortwave
rotating around the low will force a cold front through the Tri-
State region Monday into Tuesday. At this time, QPF is not
expected locally. Though it should be noted that not far to our
north, a rain snow mix will be possible, with light rain being the
expected precip type should rain make it this far south. In
general, dry and cool conditions are expected for much of the
extended range.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions will remain throughout the TAF cycle with clear
skies and unrestricted visibility. Low level clouds around 5kft
will be increasing from the east around and after daybreak mainly
at the VLD and TLH terminals. Winds will be light from the
northeast.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory conditions continue across mainly our offshore waters
this afternoon, and primarily in seas. The past few obs have shown
just below advisory level winds, though gusts above 20 knots were
noted. The current 00z expiration of the Small Craft Advisory will
hold. Thereafter, winds and seas will likely remain below
headline levels through Sunday night, though a brief uptick in
winds on Saturday night will be possible as low pressure begins to
develop in the western Atlantic. In the wake of a front on Monday,
strong advisory conditions are expected through Tuesday night
before falling off once again to finish next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

In the wake of widespread heavy rainfall this week, many area
rivers continue to gradually rise. Flooding continues today
along the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. Additional
rises into flood stage are expected on the Choctawhatchee at
Geneva and Bruce, the Ochlockonee at Thomasville, the Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson, the Flint River at Bainbridge this weekend.
Flooding will also be possible this weekend or early next week on
the Ochlockonee River at Concord and on the Withlacoochee at
Quitman. Elsewhere, rivers should peak below flood stage. With
very low chances of rain for the next seven days, rivers are
expected to gradually return to more normal levels over the next
week. The one possible exception is the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, where upstream dam releases may prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   31  50  35  56  39 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   35  55  41  57  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        31  54  34  57  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        28  51  34  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      34  46  36  54  37 /   0  30  20   0   0
Cross City    34  52  38  56  40 /   0  30  20   0   0
Apalachicola  35  56  41  57  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
     CST/ Saturday FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
     North Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Saturday FOR Coastal Gulf.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 052022
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Surface high pressure centered just to our west early this
afternoon will lift to our north overnight. While we won`t see
ideal radiational cooling as winds will stay light from the
northeast, the air mass is very dry with dew points across the
region currently in the teens. We are upgrading the freeze watch
to a warning and expanding it further south and east. Increasing
clouds from the east toward daybreak should keep temps above
freezing for some of our easternmost zones. Minimum temps outside
of the freeze will generally be in the mid 30s.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The synoptic pattern on Saturday will be characterized by surface
ridging across the Southeast, and southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of a shortwave over the Southern Plains. Through Sunday morning,
the shortwave will move through the northern Gulf, and through the
western Atlantic to a point of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday
morning. A thin stable layer between 750-850mb will prevent
surface cyclogenesis as the wave passes through the northern Gulf,
but a strong surface low is expected to quickly spin-up as the
wave reaches the western Atlantic. So essentially, this wave will
have very little effect on the sensible weather locally but for
the anomalously cool 850mb temps on Sunday (more in a minute).
There will be a slight chance for rain on Saturday afternoon/early
evening as low-layer flow veers southeast and forces Atlantic
moisture up over a cooler airmass across the Tri-State region.
This will likely result in very light rain across the eastern Big
Bend and parts of extreme south-central Georgia, with cloud cover
spreading a bit farther west. The clouds and light rain will keep
afternoon temperatures quite cool in this region; currently
forecast to peak in the mid to upper 40s. Elsewhere, partly cloudy
to sunny skies should allow highs to warm into the middle 50s.
Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to be in the middle 30s
with gradually clearing skies. On Sunday, the cold temperatures
aloft will mix to the surface and keep highs in the mid 50s just
about everywhere. For some reference, this is about 10 degrees
below average but will be similar to the previous few afternoons.
Rain is not expected on Sunday, with mostly clear skies
prevailing.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

A large upper low will gradually move east through the Great Lakes
region and the Northeast through the extended range. A shortwave
rotating around the low will force a cold front through the Tri-
State region Monday into Tuesday. At this time, QPF is not
expected locally. Though it should be noted that not far to our
north, a rain snow mix will be possible, with light rain being the
expected precip type should rain make it this far south. In
general, dry and cool conditions are expected for much of the
extended range.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions will remain throughout the TAF cycle with clear
skies and unrestricted visibility. Low level clouds around 5kft
will be increasing from the east around and after daybreak mainly
at the VLD and TLH terminals. Winds will be light from the
northeast.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory conditions continue across mainly our offshore waters
this afternoon, and primarily in seas. The past few obs have shown
just below advisory level winds, though gusts above 20 knots were
noted. The current 00z expiration of the Small Craft Advisory will
hold. Thereafter, winds and seas will likely remain below
headline levels through Sunday night, though a brief uptick in
winds on Saturday night will be possible as low pressure begins to
develop in the western Atlantic. In the wake of a front on Monday,
strong advisory conditions are expected through Tuesday night
before falling off once again to finish next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

In the wake of widespread heavy rainfall this week, many area
rivers continue to gradually rise. Flooding continues today
along the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. Additional
rises into flood stage are expected on the Choctawhatchee at
Geneva and Bruce, the Ochlockonee at Thomasville, the Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson, the Flint River at Bainbridge this weekend.
Flooding will also be possible this weekend or early next week on
the Ochlockonee River at Concord and on the Withlacoochee at
Quitman. Elsewhere, rivers should peak below flood stage. With
very low chances of rain for the next seven days, rivers are
expected to gradually return to more normal levels over the next
week. The one possible exception is the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, where upstream dam releases may prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   31  50  35  56  39 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   35  55  41  57  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        31  54  34  57  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        28  51  34  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      34  46  36  54  37 /   0  30  20   0   0
Cross City    34  52  38  56  40 /   0  30  20   0   0
Apalachicola  35  56  41  57  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
     CST/ Saturday FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
     North Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Saturday FOR Coastal Gulf.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 052022
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Surface high pressure centered just to our west early this
afternoon will lift to our north overnight. While we won`t see
ideal radiational cooling as winds will stay light from the
northeast, the air mass is very dry with dew points across the
region currently in the teens. We are upgrading the freeze watch
to a warning and expanding it further south and east. Increasing
clouds from the east toward daybreak should keep temps above
freezing for some of our easternmost zones. Minimum temps outside
of the freeze will generally be in the mid 30s.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The synoptic pattern on Saturday will be characterized by surface
ridging across the Southeast, and southwesterly flow aloft ahead
of a shortwave over the Southern Plains. Through Sunday morning,
the shortwave will move through the northern Gulf, and through the
western Atlantic to a point of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday
morning. A thin stable layer between 750-850mb will prevent
surface cyclogenesis as the wave passes through the northern Gulf,
but a strong surface low is expected to quickly spin-up as the
wave reaches the western Atlantic. So essentially, this wave will
have very little effect on the sensible weather locally but for
the anomalously cool 850mb temps on Sunday (more in a minute).
There will be a slight chance for rain on Saturday afternoon/early
evening as low-layer flow veers southeast and forces Atlantic
moisture up over a cooler airmass across the Tri-State region.
This will likely result in very light rain across the eastern Big
Bend and parts of extreme south-central Georgia, with cloud cover
spreading a bit farther west. The clouds and light rain will keep
afternoon temperatures quite cool in this region; currently
forecast to peak in the mid to upper 40s. Elsewhere, partly cloudy
to sunny skies should allow highs to warm into the middle 50s.
Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to be in the middle 30s
with gradually clearing skies. On Sunday, the cold temperatures
aloft will mix to the surface and keep highs in the mid 50s just
about everywhere. For some reference, this is about 10 degrees
below average but will be similar to the previous few afternoons.
Rain is not expected on Sunday, with mostly clear skies
prevailing.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

A large upper low will gradually move east through the Great Lakes
region and the Northeast through the extended range. A shortwave
rotating around the low will force a cold front through the Tri-
State region Monday into Tuesday. At this time, QPF is not
expected locally. Though it should be noted that not far to our
north, a rain snow mix will be possible, with light rain being the
expected precip type should rain make it this far south. In
general, dry and cool conditions are expected for much of the
extended range.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

VFR conditions will remain throughout the TAF cycle with clear
skies and unrestricted visibility. Low level clouds around 5kft
will be increasing from the east around and after daybreak mainly
at the VLD and TLH terminals. Winds will be light from the
northeast.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory conditions continue across mainly our offshore waters
this afternoon, and primarily in seas. The past few obs have shown
just below advisory level winds, though gusts above 20 knots were
noted. The current 00z expiration of the Small Craft Advisory will
hold. Thereafter, winds and seas will likely remain below
headline levels through Sunday night, though a brief uptick in
winds on Saturday night will be possible as low pressure begins to
develop in the western Atlantic. In the wake of a front on Monday,
strong advisory conditions are expected through Tuesday night
before falling off once again to finish next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

In the wake of widespread heavy rainfall this week, many area
rivers continue to gradually rise. Flooding continues today
along the Choctawhatchee River at Caryville, Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, and Withlacoochee River at Valdosta. Additional
rises into flood stage are expected on the Choctawhatchee at
Geneva and Bruce, the Ochlockonee at Thomasville, the Kinchafoonee
Creek at Dawson, the Flint River at Bainbridge this weekend.
Flooding will also be possible this weekend or early next week on
the Ochlockonee River at Concord and on the Withlacoochee at
Quitman. Elsewhere, rivers should peak below flood stage. With
very low chances of rain for the next seven days, rivers are
expected to gradually return to more normal levels over the next
week. The one possible exception is the Apalachicola River at
Blountstown, where upstream dam releases may prolong flooding.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   31  50  35  56  39 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   35  55  41  57  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        31  54  34  57  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        28  51  34  57  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      34  46  36  54  37 /   0  30  20   0   0
Cross City    34  52  38  56  40 /   0  30  20   0   0
Apalachicola  35  56  41  57  47 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
     CST/ Saturday FOR Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-
     North Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST Saturday FOR Coastal Gulf.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-
     Irwin-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-
     Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River
     to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
     Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KMLB 052004
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
304 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT...
...COOLER/UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN TURNING EVEN COOLER
NEXT WEEK...

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT FROM THE ALABAMA TWD
THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BECOMING NE/ENE
ALONG THE COAST LATE. MARINE STRATOCU WILL PUSH ONSHORE THIS EVENING
AND MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR OVERNIGHT. NAM MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
ALLOWING ATLC SHOWERS TO MAKE IT INTO THE INTERIOR BUT WILL TREND
CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF GUID WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER
ALONG THE COAST PAST LATE EVENING. LOWS 50S ACROSS CSTL AREAS AND 45-
50 OVER THE INTERIOR.

SAT...POSITIVE TILT S/W TROUGH ACROSS WILL MOVE FROM E TX TWD LA/AL
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER LIFT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER
THE SRN PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO
ONSHORE WITH SOME LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FAVORED ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
IN THE MORNING. EXPECT MARINE STRATOCU TO HAVE PUSHED WELL INLAND BY
MORNING WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON NEAR
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE SE FL COAST TWD EVENING. OVERALL EXPECTED
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH MILDER HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S NRN
AREAS AND LWR-MID 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT-SUN (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...ACTIVE SOUTHERN
JET STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES AS DEEPENING S/W TROUGH APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THIS WILL DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE FL COAST THAT WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS IT
LIFTS NE SUN. LOW LEVEL E-NE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME N-NE
INTO LATE SAT AFT AND EVE...INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT...RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AS BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF MOS POPS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INDICATED BY SAT AFT (RAIN CHANCES
30-40%)... BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO SAT
EVENING (UP TO 60-80%). RAIN WILL THEN GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS LOW LIFTS NE. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS DO NOT
LOOK TOO HIGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AROUND 0.25-0.75 INCHES MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST COUNTIES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE DRY AS BREEZY/WINDY N/NW FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING LOW DRAGS
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA.

HIGHS ON SAT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW-MID 60S ORLANDO
NORTHWARD TO LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
40S WITH UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-THU...COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK AS SERIES OF COLD/REINFORCING FRONTS ALLOW FOR A PREDOMINANT
W/NW FLOW OVER THE REGION. COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT MAY GENERATE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS BUT OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID
60S MON...THEN 50S TO LOW 60S TUE/WED AND BACK TO LOW-MID 60S THU.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S...EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF MID-UPPER 30S
TUE/WED NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

MARINE STRATOCU HAS MOVED ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR 3 KFT AND WILL PUSH GRADUALLY INLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGHER CHC
FOR BKN CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE E COAST. INCLUDED VCSH AT
KDAB/KSUA FOR SAT MORNING WHERE HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO START THE DAY...THOUGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LOW WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-SAT...N WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL VEER OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE TO 15 KNOTS
BY MORNING. WILL LEAVE CURRENT SCA IN PLACE AND LET EVENING SHIFT
ASSESS TRENDS FOR ANY NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS. MAY NEED TO EXTEND
ADVISORY TO GULF STREAM INTO SATURDAY MORNING BASED ON CURRENT FCST.
ON SAT...ONSHORE FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL DECREASE SOME INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT NEARSHORE AND AROUND 6 FT OFFSHORE.

SAT-SUN...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE FL
COAST LATE SAT AND QUICKLY INTENSIFY INTO SAT NIGHT-SUN AS IT LIFTS
NE. WINDS INITIALLY OUT OF THE E/NE SAT MORNING AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
WILL BECOME N/NW AND RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SAT NIGHT WITH HAZARDOUS
...POTENTIALLY VERY HAZARDOUS...BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SAT NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY.

MON-TUE...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MON NIGHT
WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN WESTERLY WINDS AND KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
OFFSHORE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL RECOVER SATURDAY AS
A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOVES OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EAST
COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW MIN
RH`S FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  66  47  57 /  20  30  60  10
MCO  49  72  47  58 /  10  30  60  10
MLB  53  71  51  60 /  20  30  70  10
VRB  55  73  52  60 /  20  40  70  10
LEE  45  67  43  58 /  10  30  50  10
SFB  48  68  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
ORL  50  69  46  58 /  10  30  60  10
FPR  55  74  52  60 /  20  40  70  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-
     NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-
     ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
     LAKE COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-
     60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20
     NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
IMPACT WEATHER/LONG TERM...ULRICH




000
FXUS62 KTBW 051957
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
257 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
STRONG DYNAMIC SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS THE NEXT
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY APPROACH THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY.

THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TONIGHT BUT WILL
QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM.

NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RECOVER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTH/NORTHEAST... HOWEVER 85H WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRATO-CU CEILINGS LIKELY DEVELOPING
AND SPREADING OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. SO THE CLEAR SKIES
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.

A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY.  AS THE
STRONG U/L ENERGY OVERRIDES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...STRONG LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING S/W WILL SQUEEZE OUT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH A CHANCE OF STRATIFIED LIGHT RAIN
DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION WITH STRENGTHENING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING AND REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES LATE SATURDAY. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
NEARER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. STRONG MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER BENEATH LOW
LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. A POTENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MORE
THAN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. INTERIOR AREAS...AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO SEE SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

SUNDAY WILL BE COOL AND BREEZY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AREA WIDE IN
THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...A LARGE DOMINANT UPPER CYCLONE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH DOMINANT UPPER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...SEVERAL FRONTS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA...WITH INTRUSIONS OF COLD CONTINENTAL AIR. WHILE
THESE WILL MAINLY BE DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES...AT LEAST A SLIM CHANCE
OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY ONE OF THE STRONGER FRONTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...A COOL DRY PATTERN WILL ENSUE...WITH A
FAIR CHANCE OF FREEZING TO NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST AND INTERIOR NORTHERN FLORIDA MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS 035-040 OVERNIGHT
AT ALL TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT RSW/FMY/PGD AROUND
MIDNIGHT...HOLDING OFF AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS UNTIL 08-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS...HOWEVER HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AGAIN OVER THE
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS EAST OF FLORIDA WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDS AGAIN LIKELY INCREASING ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS...WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  47  64  46  58 /  10  30  30  10
FMY  52  72  51  61 /  10  40  50  10
GIF  49  68  45  59 /  10  40  50  10
SRQ  49  65  50  58 /  10  40  30  10
BKV  43  63  41  58 /  10  30  40  10
SPG  50  63  49  57 /  10  30  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 PM THIS
     EVENING TO 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...84/AUSTIN
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN




000
FXUS62 KJAX 051956
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
256 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S OVER INLAND NE FL TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS
WILL BE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP AIR MIXED AND MINIMIZE FROST
POTENTIAL.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
ON SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S INLAND SE GA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR NE FL...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT...AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT QPF GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH...ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN MOVING EAST
TOWARDS THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND IT WILL BE GUSTY NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION...AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MID
30S TO LOW/MID 40S.

SUNDAY...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH AND HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER
COOL DAY WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SUN NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH INLAND AREAS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE...BUT A FEW AREAS COULD GET NEAR FREEZING AND
SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE FROST AS WELL.

MONDAY...A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GET CUT OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...SO KEPT 20 POPS
IN FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A BREEZY TO WINDY WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW/MID
60S. LOWS WILL THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR SUNDAY NIGHTS LOW AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. LIGHT FREEZES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
IN THE 5-10 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A HARD
FREEZE...BUT THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MVFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN REACHING EASTERN TAF
SITES SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT REACHED EXPECTED LEVELS TODAY...AS GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT. THEREFORE...WILL BE CANCELLING GALE WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND FAVOR
A GALE WATCH FOR OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY...WITH IT WRAPPING UP INTO A LOW SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST SUNDAY. THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS ELEVATED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  32  49  36 /   0   0  20  30
SSI  54  37  51  38 /   0   0  30  50
JAX  54  37  54  38 /   0   0  30  50
SGJ  54  46  59  43 /   0   0  40  60
GNV  55  37  58  37 /   0   0  20  40
OCF  57  41  60  40 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/KENNEDY/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KJAX 051956
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
256 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...WITH COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S OVER INLAND NE FL TONIGHT...BUT LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS
WILL BE ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP AIR MIXED AND MINIMIZE FROST
POTENTIAL.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
ON SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. COLD ADVECTION ON NORTHERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE UPPER 40S INLAND SE GA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE ONSHORE FLOW FOR NE FL...BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT...AND SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE REGION. HIGH RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT QPF GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH...ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN MOVING EAST
TOWARDS THE MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND IT WILL BE GUSTY NEAR THE COAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION...AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO THE MID
30S TO LOW/MID 40S.

SUNDAY...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES
PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BECOME SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH AND HIGHER ALONG THE COAST. ANOTHER
COOL DAY WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.

SUN NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH INLAND AREAS FALLING INTO
THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH TEMPS NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST. WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT A WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE...BUT A FEW AREAS COULD GET NEAR FREEZING AND
SHELTERED LOCATIONS COULD SEE FROST AS WELL.

MONDAY...A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GET CUT OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY...WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...SO KEPT 20 POPS
IN FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A BREEZY TO WINDY WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW/MID
60S. LOWS WILL THEN DROP BACK TO NEAR SUNDAY NIGHTS LOW AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. LIGHT FREEZES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
IN THE 5-10 MPH TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A HARD
FREEZE...BUT THIS WILL ALSO DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO THE 20S ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. MVFR STRATUS WILL BEGIN REACHING EASTERN TAF
SITES SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
FROM EAST TO WEST...WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT REACHED EXPECTED LEVELS TODAY...AS GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT. THEREFORE...WILL BE CANCELLING GALE WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND FAVOR
A GALE WATCH FOR OUTER WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY...WITH IT WRAPPING UP INTO A LOW SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE COAST SUNDAY. THE INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS TROUGH AND LOW WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...KEEPING CONDITIONS ELEVATED INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  32  49  36 /   0   0  20  30
SSI  54  37  51  38 /   0   0  30  50
JAX  54  37  54  38 /   0   0  30  50
SGJ  54  46  59  43 /   0   0  40  60
GNV  55  37  58  37 /   0   0  20  40
OCF  57  41  60  40 /   0   0  30  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/KENNEDY/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KKEY 051954
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SOUTHWARD...BUT
MOSTLY SUNNY TO THE WEST. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE WISE...A
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO THE NORTH
COAST OF CUBA. WINDS ARE MOSTLY NORTH NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
MARINE DISTRICT.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TO ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL CUBA...WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. GIVEN THE APPROACHING
FRONT WITH MODEST UPGLIDE...IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL
BE FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...BEFORE DRIER
AIR SLOWLY FILTERS IN THEREAFTER. HENCE...LOW CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT WILL BE INSERTED WITH LIKELY POPS MAINLY FROM NOON SATURDAY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 70 AND 75 ON SATURDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
QUICK CHANGES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT LIKELY TO CROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
NIGHT OR TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK BEFORE SOME MODERATION OCCURS ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...GIVEN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED
AT BEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&


.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS FOR THE BALANCE OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE WINDS
SLACKEN TONIGHT AND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME STRONG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS...WITH BASES NEAR 3000 FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  64 72 63 67 / 30 70 70 20
MARATHON  64 74 62 67 / 30 70 70 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....SD
DATA ACQUISITION......SC/BF
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KMFL 051755
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1255 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...

BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STRATUS STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EASTERN
PENINSULA WITH CEILINGS IN THE 3500 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE. CEILINGS
IN THIS RANGE COULD CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. SO OCCASIONAL CEILINGS TO NEAR MVFR
CRITERIA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON SATURDAY...WILL AMEND IF/AS NEEDED. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THIS PROCESS IS SLOWLY UNDERWAY.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA OVER NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS, THERE IS
STILL LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
EASTERN PENINSULA. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING IN HEIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE CLEARING TEND INDICATED.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CONTINUES TO EXIT JUST EAST OF BISCAYNE BAY
WITH SHOWERS NOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER THERE
IS LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING
AS WELL...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST TERMINALS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A CLEARING TREND
IS EXPECTED AROUND 14-15Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST TO LIFT BUT
MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF THEY LINGER LONGER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN
SLOWLY START TO TRANSITION TO NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAGGING ITSELF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS, COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NOW CLEARING THE EAST COAST. MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW WITH TIMING THIS MORNING, BUT EVEN
THEY SHOW MOST OF THE LINGERING PRECIP OFF THE EAST COAST NOT TOO
LONG AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORN. ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES LINGER OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT BEFORE IT
STALLS. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS.

CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE,
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR PALM BEACH AND BROWARD. MIAMI-DADE,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS, WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN A
COOLER AIRMASS. MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST,
HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVED, AND WILL HOLD IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR TEMPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S FOR
GLADES/HENDRY, MID-UPPER 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST, AND LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO VEER NE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...FRIDAY`S FRONT NEVER QUITE GETS ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA, STALLING OUT AROUND THE KEYS.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GULF WITH S FL ALSO IN THE FAVORABLE REGION BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING 130KT JET AND APPROACHING 150KT JET. THIS WILL INITIATE
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR EAST LATE IN
THE DAY, BRINGING THE BOUNDARY (AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE) BACK
OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY RACING OFF WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE COLD
FRONT AND MOST OF THE PRECIP CLEARING THE REGION NOT TOO LONG AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH BREEZY NW FLOW LEADING TO A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT WEEK...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE US FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL WEAKER IMPULSES ROTATING
ALONG ITS BASE AT TIMES. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES BRINGING
ISOLATED, AND GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. PREVAILING WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MARINE...

GUSTY N-NW WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO JUST
CLEAR THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS VEER N-NE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KTS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 15-
20KTS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NE. BRIEF LULL IN SPEEDS ON SATURDAY AS
BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE VICINITY, WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SAT NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
GULF BY SAT EVE AS SURFACE LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY, WITH WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE ATLANTIC BY LATE SAT NIGHT BEHIND SECOND COLD
FRONT. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 25KTS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

SEAS PEAK AROUND 8-10FT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BEHIND FRONT AND
8-10FT OVER THE GULF STREAM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS DROP BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
SECONDARY FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FOR THE ATLANTIC IF HIGHER SEAS LINGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  73  54  64 /  30  50  80  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  75  56  64 /  40  50  70  20
MIAMI            62  75  55  64 /  40  50  70  20
NAPLES           52  64  52  63 /  30  50  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 051755
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1255 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...

BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLIER THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL
STRATUS STILL LINGERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EASTERN
PENINSULA WITH CEILINGS IN THE 3500 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE. CEILINGS
IN THIS RANGE COULD CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO
AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT. SO OCCASIONAL CEILINGS TO NEAR MVFR
CRITERIA ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ON SATURDAY...WILL AMEND IF/AS NEEDED. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AND
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THIS PROCESS IS SLOWLY UNDERWAY.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

UPDATE...

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA OVER NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS, THERE IS
STILL LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
EASTERN PENINSULA. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING IN HEIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE CLEARING TEND INDICATED.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CONTINUES TO EXIT JUST EAST OF BISCAYNE BAY
WITH SHOWERS NOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER THERE
IS LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING
AS WELL...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST TERMINALS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A CLEARING TREND
IS EXPECTED AROUND 14-15Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST TO LIFT BUT
MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF THEY LINGER LONGER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN
SLOWLY START TO TRANSITION TO NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAGGING ITSELF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS, COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NOW CLEARING THE EAST COAST. MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW WITH TIMING THIS MORNING, BUT EVEN
THEY SHOW MOST OF THE LINGERING PRECIP OFF THE EAST COAST NOT TOO
LONG AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORN. ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES LINGER OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT BEFORE IT
STALLS. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS.

CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE,
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR PALM BEACH AND BROWARD. MIAMI-DADE,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS, WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN A
COOLER AIRMASS. MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST,
HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVED, AND WILL HOLD IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR TEMPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S FOR
GLADES/HENDRY, MID-UPPER 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST, AND LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO VEER NE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...FRIDAY`S FRONT NEVER QUITE GETS ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA, STALLING OUT AROUND THE KEYS.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GULF WITH S FL ALSO IN THE FAVORABLE REGION BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING 130KT JET AND APPROACHING 150KT JET. THIS WILL INITIATE
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR EAST LATE IN
THE DAY, BRINGING THE BOUNDARY (AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE) BACK
OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY RACING OFF WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE COLD
FRONT AND MOST OF THE PRECIP CLEARING THE REGION NOT TOO LONG AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH BREEZY NW FLOW LEADING TO A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT WEEK...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE US FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL WEAKER IMPULSES ROTATING
ALONG ITS BASE AT TIMES. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES BRINGING
ISOLATED, AND GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. PREVAILING WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MARINE...

GUSTY N-NW WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO JUST
CLEAR THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS VEER N-NE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KTS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 15-
20KTS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NE. BRIEF LULL IN SPEEDS ON SATURDAY AS
BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE VICINITY, WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SAT NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
GULF BY SAT EVE AS SURFACE LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY, WITH WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE ATLANTIC BY LATE SAT NIGHT BEHIND SECOND COLD
FRONT. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 25KTS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

SEAS PEAK AROUND 8-10FT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BEHIND FRONT AND
8-10FT OVER THE GULF STREAM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS DROP BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
SECONDARY FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FOR THE ATLANTIC IF HIGHER SEAS LINGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  73  54  64 /  30  50  80  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  75  56  64 /  40  50  70  20
MIAMI            62  75  55  64 /  40  50  70  20
NAPLES           52  64  52  63 /  30  50  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 051632
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1132 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA OVER NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS, THERE IS
STILL LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
EASTERN PENINSULA. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING IN HEIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE CLEARING TEND INDICATED.

60


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CONTINUES TO EXIT JUST EAST OF BISCAYNE BAY
WITH SHOWERS NOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER THERE
IS LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING
AS WELL...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST TERMINALS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A CLEARING TREND
IS EXPECTED AROUND 14-15Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST TO LIFT BUT
MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF THEY LINGER LONGER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN
SLOWLY START TO TRANSITION TO NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAGGING ITSELF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS, COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NOW CLEARING THE EAST COAST. MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW WITH TIMING THIS MORNING, BUT EVEN
THEY SHOW MOST OF THE LINGERING PRECIP OFF THE EAST COAST NOT TOO
LONG AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORN. ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES LINGER OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT BEFORE IT
STALLS. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS.

CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE,
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR PALM BEACH AND BROWARD. MIAMI-DADE,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS, WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN A
COOLER AIRMASS. MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST,
HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVED, AND WILL HOLD IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR TEMPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S FOR
GLADES/HENDRY, MID-UPPER 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST, AND LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO VEER NE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...FRIDAY`S FRONT NEVER QUITE GETS ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA, STALLING OUT AROUND THE KEYS.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GULF WITH S FL ALSO IN THE FAVORABLE REGION BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING 130KT JET AND APPROACHING 150KT JET. THIS WILL INITIATE
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR EAST LATE IN
THE DAY, BRINGING THE BOUNDARY (AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE) BACK
OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY RACING OFF WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE COLD
FRONT AND MOST OF THE PRECIP CLEARING THE REGION NOT TOO LONG AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH BREEZY NW FLOW LEADING TO A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT WEEK...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE US FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL WEAKER IMPULSES ROTATING
ALONG ITS BASE AT TIMES. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES BRINGING
ISOLATED, AND GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. PREVAILING WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MARINE...

GUSTY N-NW WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO JUST
CLEAR THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS VEER N-NE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KTS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 15-
20KTS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NE. BRIEF LULL IN SPEEDS ON SATURDAY AS
BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE VICINITY, WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SAT NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
GULF BY SAT EVE AS SURFACE LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY, WITH WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE ATLANTIC BY LATE SAT NIGHT BEHIND SECOND COLD
FRONT. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 25KTS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

SEAS PEAK AROUND 8-10FT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BEHIND FRONT AND
8-10FT OVER THE GULF STREAM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS DROP BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
SECONDARY FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FOR THE ATLANTIC IF HIGHER SEAS LINGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  62  73  54 /  10  30  50  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  62  75  56 /  10  40  50  70
MIAMI            71  62  75  55 /  10  40  50  70
NAPLES           67  52  64  52 /   0  30  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 051632
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1132 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA OVER NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS, THERE IS
STILL LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
EASTERN PENINSULA. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING IN HEIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE CLEARING TEND INDICATED.

60


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CONTINUES TO EXIT JUST EAST OF BISCAYNE BAY
WITH SHOWERS NOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER THERE
IS LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING
AS WELL...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST TERMINALS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A CLEARING TREND
IS EXPECTED AROUND 14-15Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST TO LIFT BUT
MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF THEY LINGER LONGER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN
SLOWLY START TO TRANSITION TO NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAGGING ITSELF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS, COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NOW CLEARING THE EAST COAST. MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW WITH TIMING THIS MORNING, BUT EVEN
THEY SHOW MOST OF THE LINGERING PRECIP OFF THE EAST COAST NOT TOO
LONG AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORN. ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES LINGER OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT BEFORE IT
STALLS. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS.

CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE,
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR PALM BEACH AND BROWARD. MIAMI-DADE,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS, WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN A
COOLER AIRMASS. MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST,
HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVED, AND WILL HOLD IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR TEMPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S FOR
GLADES/HENDRY, MID-UPPER 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST, AND LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO VEER NE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...FRIDAY`S FRONT NEVER QUITE GETS ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA, STALLING OUT AROUND THE KEYS.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GULF WITH S FL ALSO IN THE FAVORABLE REGION BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING 130KT JET AND APPROACHING 150KT JET. THIS WILL INITIATE
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR EAST LATE IN
THE DAY, BRINGING THE BOUNDARY (AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE) BACK
OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY RACING OFF WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE COLD
FRONT AND MOST OF THE PRECIP CLEARING THE REGION NOT TOO LONG AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH BREEZY NW FLOW LEADING TO A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT WEEK...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE US FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL WEAKER IMPULSES ROTATING
ALONG ITS BASE AT TIMES. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES BRINGING
ISOLATED, AND GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. PREVAILING WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MARINE...

GUSTY N-NW WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO JUST
CLEAR THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS VEER N-NE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KTS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 15-
20KTS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NE. BRIEF LULL IN SPEEDS ON SATURDAY AS
BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE VICINITY, WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SAT NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
GULF BY SAT EVE AS SURFACE LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY, WITH WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE ATLANTIC BY LATE SAT NIGHT BEHIND SECOND COLD
FRONT. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 25KTS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

SEAS PEAK AROUND 8-10FT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BEHIND FRONT AND
8-10FT OVER THE GULF STREAM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS DROP BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
SECONDARY FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FOR THE ATLANTIC IF HIGHER SEAS LINGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  62  73  54 /  10  30  50  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  62  75  56 /  10  40  50  70
MIAMI            71  62  75  55 /  10  40  50  70
NAPLES           67  52  64  52 /   0  30  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 051632
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1132 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA OVER NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ONLY A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS, THERE IS
STILL LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
EASTERN PENINSULA. THIS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WHILE SLOWLY LIFTING IN HEIGHT. OTHERWISE...SHORT TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE CLEARING TEND INDICATED.

60


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AVIATION...

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY CONTINUES TO EXIT JUST EAST OF BISCAYNE BAY
WITH SHOWERS NOW MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER THERE
IS LINGERING LOW LEVEL STRATUS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING
AS WELL...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST TERMINALS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A CLEARING TREND
IS EXPECTED AROUND 14-15Z WITH MVFR CEILINGS FORECAST TO LIFT BUT
MAY HAVE TO AMEND IF THEY LINGER LONGER. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 18Z THEN
SLOWLY START TO TRANSITION TO NORTH NORTHEAST IN THE 18Z TO 00Z
TIME FRAME.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAGGING ITSELF ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS, COOLER TEMPS
AND LOWER DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY OVERSPREAD MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST NOW CLEARING THE EAST COAST. MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW WITH TIMING THIS MORNING, BUT EVEN
THEY SHOW MOST OF THE LINGERING PRECIP OFF THE EAST COAST NOT TOO
LONG AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORN. ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES LINGER OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT BEFORE IT
STALLS. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS.

CLEARING SKIES WILL MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE LAKE,
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR PALM BEACH AND BROWARD. MIAMI-DADE,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS, WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN A
COOLER AIRMASS. MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST,
HAVE ALREADY SEEN THEIR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE DAY BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVED, AND WILL HOLD IN THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR TEMPS THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S FOR
GLADES/HENDRY, MID-UPPER 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST, AND LOW 60S ALONG THE EAST COAST AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
STARTS TO VEER NE.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...FRIDAY`S FRONT NEVER QUITE GETS ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA, STALLING OUT AROUND THE KEYS.
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
ACROSS THE GULF WITH S FL ALSO IN THE FAVORABLE REGION BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING 130KT JET AND APPROACHING 150KT JET. THIS WILL INITIATE
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR EAST LATE IN
THE DAY, BRINGING THE BOUNDARY (AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE) BACK
OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW QUICKLY RACING OFF WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST. GFS AND ECMWF IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE COLD
FRONT AND MOST OF THE PRECIP CLEARING THE REGION NOT TOO LONG AFTER
DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN QUICKLY ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH BREEZY NW FLOW LEADING TO A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

NEXT WEEK...LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE US FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH SEVERAL WEAKER IMPULSES ROTATING
ALONG ITS BASE AT TIMES. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES BRINGING
ISOLATED, AND GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. PREVAILING WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

MARINE...

GUSTY N-NW WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION BEHIND A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO JUST
CLEAR THE REGION AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS VEER N-NE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KTS, SLOWLY DIMINISHING TO 15-
20KTS LATE TONIGHT FROM THE NE. BRIEF LULL IN SPEEDS ON SATURDAY AS
BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE VICINITY, WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS SAT NIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
GULF BY SAT EVE AS SURFACE LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY, WITH WINDS
INCREASING OVER THE ATLANTIC BY LATE SAT NIGHT BEHIND SECOND COLD
FRONT. GUSTY NW WINDS AROUND 25KTS OVER MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

SEAS PEAK AROUND 8-10FT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BEHIND FRONT AND
8-10FT OVER THE GULF STREAM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS DROP BRIEFLY
ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN SUN AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
SECONDARY FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL THE WATERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
FOR THE ATLANTIC IF HIGHER SEAS LINGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  62  73  54 /  10  30  50  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  62  75  56 /  10  40  50  70
MIAMI            71  62  75  55 /  10  40  50  70
NAPLES           67  52  64  52 /   0  30  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 051514
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1014 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Surface high pressure remains centered over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. Expect sunny skies with a cooler and much drier air mass
filtering in on breezy northerly winds. Temperatures are on track
to reach the mid 50s at most locations this afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [624 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
High pressure across the Mid South on Friday evening will move
northeast into the Southern Appalachians by Saturday morning.
Aloft, the next upper level trough will be moving toward the
Western Gulf around this time. This particular pattern doesn`t
tend to support freezing temperatures across our region. Not only
will surface winds struggle to go calm overnight, southwesterly
flow aloft will bring some upper level cloudiness across the
region. The best potential for an area of freezing temperatures
appears to be across Southeastern Alabama into Southwestern
Georgia - nearer to the center of the surface high. Opted for low
temperatures overnight that are a little warmer than the MOS
average, which ended up being quite close to the 05/06z ECAM
output.

On Saturday and into Sunday, a large upper trough will traverse
the forecast area. Limited moisture will keep rain chances low and
confined mainly to the eastern areas. After the trough passes
through the region on Sunday, expect temperatures to recover into
the lower 60s under mostly sunny skies.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
A rather lengthy stretch of cool and dry conditions is expected to
start at the beginning of the long term period as a dry cold front
passes through the region on Monday. With a large upper low
parking itself over the Tennessee Valley through Wednesday, expect
cool and breezy conditions to prevail. Have undercut the guidance
temps a few degrees for afternoon highs during this period. As the
upper trough pulls away on Wednesday evening, a large surface high
pressure area will move quickly from the Central Plains to the
Southeast by Thursday morning. With the surface high moving into
the Western Atlantic on Friday, a slow warming trend will begin.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions will remain throughout the TAF cycle with clear skies
and unrestricted visibility. Northerly winds will be around 10 to 12
knots.


.Marine...
Strong offshore flow at advisory levels will gradually diminish
this afternoon as high pressure builds near the marine area.
Modest offshore winds will continue through the weekend and
increase significantly on Monday as a cold front moves across the
waters. A lengthy duration of advisory winds are expected to begin
again Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...
The next few days will be very dry. This afternoon RH values will
drop down to 25 percent. With winds decreasing by this afternoon and
very high fuel moisture, red flag criteria will not be met.


.Hydrology...
Fortunately, no significant heavy rainfall is expected over the
next several days as many area river basins are nearing or
exceeding flood levels.

On the Choctawhatchee, Geneva will crest later today very near the
minor flood level. Further downstream into Florida, minor flooding
will continue at Caryville with moderate flooding at Bruce
expected late this weekend.

On the Chattahoochee/Apalachicola, releases continue to be
increased from Walter F George. This will keep the Chattahoochee
just below flood stage for the next couple of days. These
increased flows when combined with modest rises on the Flint have
resulted in further upward adjustments to the releases from
Woodruff Dam. As a result, the downstream crest at Blountstown
continues to increase, now nearing 21.5 feet by early Monday.

Above Albany, the Kinchafoonee and Muckalee Creeks will crest
later today. A secondary rise on the Kinchafoonee will push the
creek above flood stage later this afternoon.

The Withlacoochee River system is continuing to respond to the
widespread 3-5 inches of rainfall across that basin. Valdosta is
already above flood stage with the Little River now rising
steadily near Adel and Hahira. Below Valdosta at the US-84
crossing, minor flooding is expected by early next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   55  34  59  35  61 /   0   0  10  10   0
Panama City   54  37  56  40  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        53  30  56  34  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        54  30  56  33  59 /   0   0  10   0   0
Valdosta      54  34  56  35  59 /   0   0  20  10   0
Cross City    57  36  58  36  60 /   0   0  20  10   0
Apalachicola  56  38  58  40  59 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     Central Walton-Holmes-Jackson-North Walton-Washington.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     Baker-Ben Hill-Calhoun-Clay-Dougherty-Early-Irwin-Lee-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.

AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning FOR
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening FOR Coastal
     Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20
     Nm-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon FOR Apalachee
     Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
     River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach out 20 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KKEY 051513
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1011 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW SKIES VARY FROM MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE UPPER KEYS. DUE TO THE
NORTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND RESIDUAL COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPERATURES
ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. SURFACE WISE...THE
COLD FRONT WHICH BLASTED THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT IS NOW DRAPED
ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND TO THE NORTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA. WINDS ARE NORTH
RANGING FROM 21 KNOTS AT LONG KEY TO 29 KNOTS AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...MUCH COOLER...DRIER AND WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED. THE PROBLEMATIC FORECAST ELEMENT WILL BE CLOUD COVER...WITH
CHANGEABLE SKIES EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
60S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. SINCE A FORECAST UPDATE WAS ALREADY SENT...NO
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CEILINGS WILL CREEP WESTWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BASED BETWEEN 3000 AND 3500 FT. SURFACE WINDS BE NORTHERLY AT
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT
CROSSWINDS. EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHEAST AND TREND
DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT REMAIN BREEZY.
&&

.CLIMATE...A LOW TEMPERATURE OF 45F AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
TIED THE RECORD FOR THE DATE. TEMPERATURE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....SD
DATA COLLECTION.......SC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 051502
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1002 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL STALL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WITH VERY COOL DRY AIR ADVECTING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON BRISK
NORTH WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WINDS VEERING NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NEXT
STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
JUST EAST OF FLORIDA ALONG THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND LIFT RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY WITH A REINFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR BEING PULLED DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  46  61  45 /   0   0  30  30
FMY  66  52  65  49 /   0  10  50  40
GIF  61  47  64  45 /   0  10  40  30
SRQ  61  47  61  48 /   0   0  40  30
BKV  59  42  60  40 /   0  10  30  30
SPG  60  49  61  48 /   0   0  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN




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