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000
FXUS62 KTBW 241941
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE STATE. THE
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE
STATE WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERNS ZONES TO RELAX AND
LIGHTEN THE N/NE WINDS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LOWS TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S
NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID 60S COASTAL CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE STORM TRACK
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. WHILE A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  THE
U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK...WHILE THE NEXT U/L DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  QUASI ZONAL FLOW
WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE U/L PATTERN
AMPLIFYING THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH RIDGING TAKING PLACE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES.  THE U/L RIDGE OVER FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE U/L TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING SOUTH OVER NORTH FLORIDA.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.  MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
CREATE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE LAYER COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH N/NE WINDS
WEAKENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND THEN INCREASING AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO AROUND 8-10KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES AND BE IN A POSITION WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVE LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DRY AIR WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION AS WELL AND NO SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES FALLING BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ERC
VALUES LOW SO NO WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  61  80  61  83 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  62  82  63  85 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  59  81  59  82 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  60  80  62  81 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  48  80  48  83 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  65  78  70  81 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





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000
FXUS62 KMFL 241925
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
CONCENTRATED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIER AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STRAITS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DRYING TREND. THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR RUN...SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAST IN THE DRYING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT BY 12Z SATURDAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWERS FOR
THE PENINSULA.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SATURDAY AND COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WITH UPDATED FORECAST AND CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SCA IS MAINLY FOR WINDS
ABOVE 20 KNOTS...IN THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE...AND MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND FORECAST...BUT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND WEST OF KEY WEST.

FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...REGIONAL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE NOTED
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. IN ADDITION SEAS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER.

AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  81  68  81 /  20  10  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  81  70  82 /  40  10  10  10
MIAMI            72  82  68  83 /  50  10   0  10
NAPLES           65  81  64  83 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD



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000
FXUS62 KTAE 241902
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
302 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A weak pressure pattern is in place over the southeast at the
surface with light winds from the north. At upper levels, a
shortwave trough is deepening as it swings across the southeast.
This is helping develop and keep upper level clouds over the area,
which will move eastward through the day as the trough does. Highs
will be in the mid to upper 70s today, dropping to the mid 40s
overnight.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The trough will be exiting east of the area at the start of the
period with a large 592-dm upper high parked over TX. The ridge
will build eastward during this period while losing some magnitude.
By Monday morning, the ridge axis will be over FL. Surface high
pressure will also gradually build eastward across the Gulf Coast
states. This pattern will yield a continued stretch of dry weather
and a warming trend. Daytime highs will be around 80 on Saturday and
in the lower to mid 80s on Sunday. We will see one more night with
lows in the mid to upper 40s Saturday night over the FL Big Bend and
South Central GA with milder 50s further north and west. Low to mid
50s can be expected across the entire forecast area Sunday night.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The upper ridge will continue to move east early in the period with
a trough deepening into the Southeast by Thursday and Friday. A cold
front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday and then slow
down. There are still timing differences with the arrival of the
front in our forecast area. However, any noticeably cooler air will
not arrive until after the period. In the interim, temps will be
above normal with highs gradually falling from the mid 80s on Monday
to around 80 on Friday. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper
50s inland with 60s near the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with few to scattered cloud coverage around 20kft. Winds
today and tomorrow will be from the north, generally staying 5
knots or less.

&&

.Marine...
High pressure west of the area and low pressure well to the south
will keep northeasterly flow in place over the waters through the
weekend. Winds may occasionally approach 15 knots during the
overnight hours but no headline conditions are expected. High
pressure will slide over the waters by late Sunday into Monday
with very light winds and minimal seas. As the high slides
eastward, onshore flow will develop by late Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Despite relative humidities in the 20 to 30 percent range today and
Friday, winds will be too light to reach red flag criteria, although
Leon county will be close to them today with high ERC values. By
Sunday, relative humidity values will begin to increase again and no
red flag conditions are expected through the period.

&&

.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  81  49  84  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   54  80  59  82  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        47  79  53  85  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  80  51  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      45  79  49  84  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    45  80  46  83  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  53  78  54  79  59 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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000
FXUS62 KJAX 241847
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
IN WAKE OF UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE SE COAST. A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE
UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY MONDAY. DUE TO VERY
DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT SURFACE
AND ALOFT OVER THE SE U.S. TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BEST LIFT
AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA SO EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY
FORECAST WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR COASTAL SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MIN TEMPERATURES BE NEAR AVERAGE WITH MAX TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR WILL PRODUCE RH`S APPROACHING CRITICAL
VALUES THIS WEEKEND. WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL NOT REACH
CRITERIA SO NO HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH NE WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW...BRIEFLY BECOMING OFFSHORE
ON SUNDAY...THEN EASTERLY AND INCREASING AGAIN SOME NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  45  78  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  54  75  57  76 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  50  78  52  80 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  76  56  77 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  47  78  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  50  80  49  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/ZIBURA/







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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241831
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
231 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LOWER CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE SERVICE
AREA. THICKER AND MORE LAYERED CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
OUTER STRAITS SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS EXTENDING CLOSER TO THE UPPER
KEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE MAINLAND...NOT FAR FROM A MORE
DISCERNIBLE LOW PRESSURE AREA. ASIDE FROM VARIABILITY NEAR AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW...WINDS ARE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG FROM
THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SWING EASTWARD THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE THE SURFACE
LOW ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...AND THEN FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC RAPIDLY ON SATURDAY.
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR EASTERN TX AND LA WILL
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEKEND.
LOCALLY...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN ON A BACKED
PROFILE...WITH FRESH TO STRONG MAINLY NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING AT
LEAST INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX AS THE
LOW LIFTS QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY. IN GENERAL...THE FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OUR RECENT ISSUANCES.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AT LEAST THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTHWEST. DRIER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AS DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE MID 60S.

THE FLOW WILL STEADILY DEEPEN FROM THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS FURTHER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH THIS MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY FRESH FLOW. A BROADER TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES WILL HELP PUSH A FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THIS WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH ENERGY TO EITHER MAKE IT TO OUR LATITUDE OR PUSH THROUGH.
SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THOSE LATE PERIODS
AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING
THE FLORIDA KEYS AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. AS LOW SURFACE PRESSURE
QUICKLY PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST...AWAY FROM THE LOCAL WATERS...AND
HIGHER PRESSURE REACHES SOUTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WINDS SHOULD MODERATE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TURN THE WINDS TOWARDS THE EAST AS IT
SETTLES FURTHER ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WINDS WILL BE FRESH FROM THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIKELY HIGH
ENOUGH FOR EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH AT 22Z THIS EVENING...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF
PERIODS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.  THEREAFTER...THROUGH 25/13Z
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS...AND EXTEND THROUGH THE HEIGHT OF THE AERODROME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  82  73  82 / 30 -  -  -
MARATHON  75  82  72  82 / 30 -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 241826
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
226 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
NORTHEAST IN A LONG SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH
THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLAND. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THE COAST FROM SOUTH BREVARD TO JUPITER
INLET...AND SOUTH...FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE GRADIENT
EASES LATE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. THE MOST RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND A LOCAL OB
CHECK/WALK OUTSIDE...SHOWED LARGE AREAS OF LOW MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW WELL EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THUS
WILL CALL FOR PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT THE COAST AND PARTLY
CLOUDY UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR THE INTERIOR. THE MELBOURNE RADAR SHOWS
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP FROM THE LOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA FAA AND NWS RADARS WERE PAINTING A DIFFERENT PICTURE WITH
VERY LARGE AREAS OF PRECIP MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS...AND WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMA
ISLAND. GFS MAV MOS INDICATING LOW POP AREA WIDE WITH THE HIGHEST
POP...11 TO 18 PERCENT...STUART TO PALM BEACH. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
GIVEN THAT A NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE PULLING A LITTLE STABLE
MARINE AIR MASS DOWN THE PENINSULA. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S INTERIOR
AND LOW TO MID 60S COASTAL AREAS NORTH BREVARD SOUTH

SAT...LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVERSPREADING THE AREA WILL GENERATE BRISK AFTERNOON NORTH
WINDS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. BUT MODELS INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL
CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING SOUTH
ONTO THE COAST DURING THE DAY.

HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH
BREVARD COAST.

SAT NIGHT...THE LOW WILL HAVE PULLED FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE LITTLE
TO NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DROP LOWS
INTO THE MID 50S INTERIOR...UPPER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST SOUTH
BREVARD TO MARTIN AND THE LOW 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES
COCOA BEACH SOUTH.


SUN...NORTH WINDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING NEAR THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST AND UPPER 70S AT THE
BEACHES AND IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND THE LOW
60S AT THE BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL

PREVIOUS EXTEND ZONES DISCUSSION
MON-THU...EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN A BIT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING PROCESS. BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH ACROSS CUBA. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THRU MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST. SEASONABLY COOL MORNINGS
SUN AND MON THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MILD LOWS IN THE MID 60S
INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS SUN IN THE
LOWER 80S THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 80S MON-THU.


&&

.AVIATION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MARINE STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE
ATLANTIC...COMING ASHORE AND WORKING ITS WAY INLAND PAST LAKE AND
NORTH POLK COUNTIES. TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS KOMN-JUPITER INLET WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES KMLB SOUTH. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COMING ASHORE KSUA SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST 12 TO 14 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. SETTLEMENT POINT ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WAS
RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WHICH IS REASONABLE
CONSIDERING THAT THE CMAN SITE IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
APPROACHING LOW. TIGHT NORTHEAST TO NORTH GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET STILL A GOOD
CALL. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THE BREVARD
VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET FOR NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

SAT...UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH WINDS
15 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. WILL AT LEAST NEED A CAUTION FOR THE
GULF STEAM AND POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY. INTRACOASTAL WATERS WILL BE
CHOPPY.

SUN....NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARBY. SO SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT CERTAINLY NOT IDEAL.

MON-TUE.. WINDS TURN EAST BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 10-15 KNOTS MON AND
TUE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  80  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  59  81  57  82 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  64  81  61  80 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  64  82  62  81 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  58  81  56  82 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  59  82  57  82 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  61  81  60  82 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  65  82  61  80 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
FORECASTS...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMFL 241803
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
HEAVIER RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST SITES. REMOVED SHRA MENTION FROM ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR
KTMB FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOW THE DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING SHRAS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD THEN TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER ONE INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS BISCAYNE
BAY. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
TAKING THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. UPDATED
POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  82  69  82 /  20  10  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  71  83 /  40  10  10  10
MIAMI            71  82  69  83 /  50  10   0  10
NAPLES           66  82  65  82 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KKEY 241453
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE STRAITS AND MUCH OF THE KEYS IS STARTING
TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AT LEAST MODERATE EROSION IN THE THICKER AND
LAYERED ELEVATED CLOUDS. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
REACHING THROUGH THE STRAITS IS MAKING FOR A COMPLEX WIND REGIME. BUT
MUCH OF THE MARINE SERVICE AREA IS EXPERIENCING NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR
20 KNOTS...GUSTING AOA 25 KNOTS. WINDS MAY HAVE MORE DIRECTIONAL
VARIABILITY IN THE EASTERN STRAITS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS WOULD NOT BE AGREEABLE THERE ANYWAY.

THE EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS LOCALLY AND FROM OUR NEIGHBORS ON THE
SOUTHEAST MAINLAND SHOW A MARKED DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS AS ONE LOOKS
FURTHER UP THE WEST COAST OF THE MAINLAND. NEARLY ONE AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH DIFFERENCE IN OVERALL MOISTURE BETWEEN HERE AND
TAMPA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOCAL DOPPLER RADAR HAS SHOWN A DECLINE
IN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A RECENT ZONE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST THE PROBABILITY
OF MEASURABLE RAIN DOWN FOR THE LOWER KEYS INITIALLY...AND FURTHER
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL HAVE MORE DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY IN THE EASTERN STRAITS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...EXPECT A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WIND ACROSS ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS TODAY...AND TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH THEN. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WINDS MODERATE FROM
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/12Z...AT THE MARATHON ISLAND TERMINAL...EXPECTING MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. MOSTLY VFR WITH
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT WILL PERSIST AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. THE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST IS DUE TO THE
NEAR BY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ALOFT INTO A NORTHEAST FETCH
DRIVING THE LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. AS INDICATED BY THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST FOR KEY WEST...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SHOWERS TO CLEAR THE
AREA SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER FOR RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER TO EXIT THE AREA...HENCE THE MVFR
CEILINGS OVER KEY WEST.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KJAX 241436
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1036 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER QUIET AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT
INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME THIN STREAMING CIRRUS CLOUDS. EXTREMELY DRY ATMOSPHERE (PWAT
OF 0.37 INCHES ON KJAX 12Z SOUNDING) WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET TODAY. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  56  74  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  76  53  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  75  60  75  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  77  51  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  79  52  77  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER//WALKER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 241436
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1036 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NECESSARY THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER QUIET AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT
INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY NOTHING MORE THAN
SOME THIN STREAMING CIRRUS CLOUDS. EXTREMELY DRY ATMOSPHERE (PWAT
OF 0.37 INCHES ON KJAX 12Z SOUNDING) WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT
ZERO. TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET TODAY. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY DUE TO LOW
PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  56  74  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  76  53  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  75  60  75  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  77  51  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  79  52  77  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER//WALKER








000
FXUS62 KMFL 241422
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER ONE INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS BISCAYNE
BAY. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
TAKING THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. UPDATED
POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE BAHAMAN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE LEAVING ONLY SHRAS EXPECTED FOR EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO VCSH INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  40  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  60  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  70  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241422
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER ONE INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS BISCAYNE
BAY. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
TAKING THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. UPDATED
POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE BAHAMAN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE LEAVING ONLY SHRAS EXPECTED FOR EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO VCSH INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  40  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  60  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  70  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 241404
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1004 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS BETWEEN THE
RIDGING AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
HAVE NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MODERATE AND
GUSTY NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT
AROUND 5-8KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AREA WIDE. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTAE 241404
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1004 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Forecast is on track for a cool, clear fall day. A weak pressure
pattern is in place over the southeast at the surface with light
winds from the north. At upper levels, a shortwave trough is
deepening as it passes over the southeast. This is helping develop
and keep upper level clouds over the area, which will move
eastward through the day as the trough does.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with cigs around 20kft. Winds today will be from the NNE
at less than 10 knots, calming again overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [226 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Upper trough over the region tonight will slide eastward through
the weekend and be replaced by an upper ridge by Sunday. A very
dry and seasonable airmass will remain in place with slowly
modifying temperatures. Low temperature in the mid to upper 40s
tonight will warm to the upper 40s to lower 50s by Sunday morning.
Highs in the upper 70s on Saturday will rise to the lower 80s by
Sunday.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday.
At that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this
trough will slide eastward. However, there are differences among
the models in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high
pressure over the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the
Southeast U.S. coast early next work week. The position of the
deep layer ridging just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum.
Slight chance PoPs do not return return to the forecast until
Wednesday and Thursday. A front will be approaching from the
northwest on Thursday. However, the 12Z run of the GFS is now
much less progressive than earlier runs to bring it through the
forecast area. The consensus of the current suite of model
guidance keeps any weak tropical lows confined to the Caribbean
Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.


.Marine...
High pressure west of the area and low pressure well to the south
will keep northeasterly flow in place over the waters through the
weekend. Winds may occasionally approach 15 knots during the
overnight hours but no headline conditions are expected. High
pressure will slide over the waters by late Sunday into Monday
with very light winds and minimal seas. As the high slides
eastward, onshore flow will develop by late Monday and Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will continue through the next few days across the
region. Relative humidity values will approach critical levels in
North Florida on Friday and Saturday afternoons, but red flag
criteria are not expected to be met.


.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   78  44  79  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  54  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        77  46  78  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  46  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      77  46  78  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  46  80  46  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  52  77  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL







000
FXUS62 KTAE 241404
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1004 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Forecast is on track for a cool, clear fall day. A weak pressure
pattern is in place over the southeast at the surface with light
winds from the north. At upper levels, a shortwave trough is
deepening as it passes over the southeast. This is helping develop
and keep upper level clouds over the area, which will move
eastward through the day as the trough does.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with cigs around 20kft. Winds today will be from the NNE
at less than 10 knots, calming again overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [226 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Upper trough over the region tonight will slide eastward through
the weekend and be replaced by an upper ridge by Sunday. A very
dry and seasonable airmass will remain in place with slowly
modifying temperatures. Low temperature in the mid to upper 40s
tonight will warm to the upper 40s to lower 50s by Sunday morning.
Highs in the upper 70s on Saturday will rise to the lower 80s by
Sunday.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday.
At that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this
trough will slide eastward. However, there are differences among
the models in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high
pressure over the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the
Southeast U.S. coast early next work week. The position of the
deep layer ridging just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum.
Slight chance PoPs do not return return to the forecast until
Wednesday and Thursday. A front will be approaching from the
northwest on Thursday. However, the 12Z run of the GFS is now
much less progressive than earlier runs to bring it through the
forecast area. The consensus of the current suite of model
guidance keeps any weak tropical lows confined to the Caribbean
Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.


.Marine...
High pressure west of the area and low pressure well to the south
will keep northeasterly flow in place over the waters through the
weekend. Winds may occasionally approach 15 knots during the
overnight hours but no headline conditions are expected. High
pressure will slide over the waters by late Sunday into Monday
with very light winds and minimal seas. As the high slides
eastward, onshore flow will develop by late Monday and Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will continue through the next few days across the
region. Relative humidity values will approach critical levels in
North Florida on Friday and Saturday afternoons, but red flag
criteria are not expected to be met.


.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   78  44  79  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  54  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        77  46  78  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  46  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      77  46  78  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  46  80  46  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  52  77  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 241404
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1004 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS BETWEEN THE
RIDGING AND THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STATE WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REACH INTO THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
HAVE NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MODERATE AND
GUSTY NE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT
AROUND 5-8KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS GUSTY NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON IN TO THE 10-15 KT RANGE AREA WIDE. WINDS WILL DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KMLB 241333
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A LONG SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CUBA AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLAND
WILL PRODUCE BRISK WINDS FOR THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS FROM
MELBOURNE TO JUPITER INLET TODAY. THE BRISK ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL
ALSO BRING AREAS OF LOW/STRATIFORM CLOUDS ASHORE MELBOURNE SOUTH
WITH MORE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD COVERAGE FORT PIERCE SOUTH. THE SOUTH
FLORIDA FAA AND NWS WEATHER RADARS WERE DETECTING A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN FROM AROUND MIAMI SOUTH AND EAST TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WHERE A
SURFACE LOW WAS/HAD FORMING/FORMED. SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW THAT THE
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD DRIFT NORTH TO SOUTH BREVARD COUNTY AND COASTAL
WATERS CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH.

CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO QUITE WELL.

WE WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE TO COVER TRENDS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
CURRENT...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
WAS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WELL. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CUBA HELPING TO INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW. WINDS
WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS. THESE HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS WERE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHEREAS
FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED ENERGY
ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE
(30 TO 40 PERCENT)POPS ACROSS ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES (20 PERCENT) EXTENDED NORTH INTO INDIAN RIVER AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. LIGHTNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION WORDING AS SHOWERS. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER PRESSURES SOUTH AND HIGHER PRESSURES NORTH TRYING TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH AWAY FROM THESE AREAS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE REALIZED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE COVERAGE
WARNING AREA WITH INCREASING (MID-HIGH) CLOUDS SOUTHWARD CLOSER
TOWARDS THE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THANKS IN PART TO ELEVATED WINDS HERE WITH
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FORECAST ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AND FURTHER
INTO THE INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SAT...LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND PRODUCE BREEZY NORTH WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST. BUT MODELS INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE THE MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING SOUTH ONTO THE COAST.
THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PRETTY NARROW MOISTURE LAYER SO WILL NOT FORECAST MEASURABLE
PRECIP. WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY EXCEPT MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR (LAKE COUNTY). HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD COAST.

SUN-THU...NORTH WINDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON
AND DECREASE DUE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING NEAR THE AREA.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING PROCESS. BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CUBA. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THRU MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST. SEASONABLY
COOL MORNINGS SUN AND MON THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MILD LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS SUN IN THE LOWER 80S THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 80S MON-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING MARINE STRATOCUMULUS OVER
THE ATLANTIC MOVING TOWARD FLORIDA. THE MARINE STRATOCU WILL COME
ASHORE DURING THE DAY KOMN SOUTH AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND AS FAR AS
KDED-KISM. TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS KOMN-JUPITER INLET WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES KMLB SOUTH. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS COMING ASHORE KVRB SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE NOAA BUOYS AND CMAN BUOYS WERE
RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS.
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TROUGHING FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN TO THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE
VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LING TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET STILL A GOOD
CALL. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM THE BREVARD
VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET FOR NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

CURRENT-TONIGHT...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NE/NNE WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE 20-25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT SOUTH FROM SEBASTIAN INLET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT HERE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY FROM SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH BREVARD
COUNTY FOR WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
CHOPPY SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER THE SCA
AREA WITH SEAS FURTHER NORTH BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.

SAT...UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. WILL AT LEAST NEED A CAUTION
FOR THE GULF STEAM AND POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY. INTRACOASTAL WATERS
WILL BE CHOPPY.

SUN-TUE...NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARBY. SO
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT CERTAINLY NOT
IDEAL. WINDS TURN EAST BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 10-15 KNOTS MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON...MIN RH`S WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD
TO VERY GOOD AREAWIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  61  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  81  60  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  80  66  81  62 /  10   0  10   0
VRB  82  69  83  62 /  20  10  10   0
LEE  80  59  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  61  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  82  62  83  60 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  82  68  82  62 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...MOSES
FORECASTS...WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMFL 241207
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
807 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE BAHAMAN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE LEAVING ONLY SHRAS EXPECTED FOR EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO VCSH INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  50  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  80  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  90  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KKEY 241204
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
804 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/12Z...AT THE MARATHON ISLAND TERMINAL...EXPECTING MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. MOSTLY VFR WITH
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT WILL PERSIST AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. THE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST IS DUE TO THE
NEAR BY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ALOFT INTO A NORTHEAST FETCH
DRIVING THE LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. AS INDICATED BY THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST FOR KEY WEST...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SHOWERS TO CLEAR THE
AREA SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER FOR RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER TO EXIT THE AREA...HENCE THE MVFR
CEILINGS OVER KEY WEST.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BWC

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 240910 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION... A LOW, DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS, WILL BRING
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THE BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST THIS EVENING, WHEN GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT ANY GIVEN TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TIMING, AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED IFR
OCCURRENCE, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  50  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  80  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  90  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KKEY 240823
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
423 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN CUBA
IS MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT HOLDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AREA. LAST
EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A NEARLY SATURATED MOIST ADIABATIC
PROFILE...WITH A PWAT WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY WITH
A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING ACROSS THE KEYS
AND SURROUNDING NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS HAVE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER PORTIONS OF KEYS WATERS...AND PULASKI SHOAL AND
SMITH SHOAL ARE JUST A BIT ABOVE 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

FORECAST - ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL APPROACH FLORIDA TODAY AND CROSS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL ASSIST IN STRENGTHENING THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED LOW...AS IT MOVES OVER THE BAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY WINDY OUT OF THE NORTH BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH DRIER LOWER AND MID LEVEL...SITTING JUST
NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ACT TO GREATLY DIMINISH THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WILL MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN A CHANCE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DAY
TIME HIGHS WILL NUDGE ABOVE 80 DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID 70S. BY TONIGHT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 60S AND ONLY ISOLATED WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA AS
IT IS PICKED UP BY THE LIFTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
DEPARTURE...ALONG WITH DAY TIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
RAPIDLY LOOSEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH BREEZES BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IS
ANTICIPATED...AS THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER...DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL END
EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYERED DRY
AIR...SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S...AND A
SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.

A HIGH CELL WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND BEGIN STRETCHING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH LOWER PRESSURES IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL FRESHEN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST BY EARLY
MONDAY. THIS ACCELERATING MARITIME TRAJECTORY WILL QUICKLY BUMP DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 70S AND DEEPEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CUBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY...INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED BECOME MORE UNIFORMLY FRESH OUT OF THE
NORTH TODAY. PULASKI AND SMITH SHOALS ARE ALREADY REPORTING NORTHEAST
WINDS A BIT HIGHER THAN 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FRESH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW
ACCELERATES AWAY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES
WILL THEN PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH CELL
SPREADS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF
MEXICO. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AGAIN FRESHEN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH BECOME CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...AND PRESSURES
FALL IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. A CAUTION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
KEYS WATERS BY MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS WILL TREND TOWARDS DECREASING RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS WILL BE PROBABLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...BEGINNING TO CLEAR
IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FROM 12 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 18 TO
22 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO CROSSWINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  82  75  82  73 / 70 30 -  -
MARATHON  82  75  82  72 / 70 30 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 240822
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
422 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
WAS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WELL. VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CUBA HELPING TO INDUCE THE SURFACE LOW. WINDS
WERE LIGHT NORTHERLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS ALONG THE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS. THESE HIGHER WINDS SPEEDS WERE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WHEREAS
FURTHER INTO THE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WITH ASSOCIATED ENERGY
ALOFT OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT AND WILL KEEP CHANCE
(30 TO 40 PERCENT)POPS ACROSS ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCES (20 PERCENT) EXTENDED NORTH INTO INDIAN RIVER AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES. LIGHTNING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION WORDING AS SHOWERS. HEAVIER CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LOWER PRESSURES SOUTH AND HIGHER PRESSURES NORTH TRYING TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS WHERE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH AWAY FROM THESE AREAS WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

MORE SUNSHINE WILL BE REALIZED FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE COVERAGE
WARNING AREA WITH INCREASING (MID-HIGH) CLOUDS SOUTHWARD CLOSER
TOWARDS THE LOW PRESSURE AND DEEPER MOISTURE. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS THANKS IN PART TO ELEVATED WINDS HERE WITH
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FORECAST ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AND FURTHER
INTO THE INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SAT...LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND PRODUCE BREEZY NORTH WINDS ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST. BUT MODELS INDICATE SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH
SHOULD ENHANCE THE MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING SOUTH ONTO THE COAST.
THERE MAY BE SOME SPRINKLES BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PRETTY NARROW MOISTURE LAYER SO WILL NOT FORECAST MEASURABLE
PRECIP. WILL CALL IT PARTLY SUNNY EXCEPT MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR
INTERIOR (LAKE COUNTY). HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S EXCEPT UPPER 70S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD COAST.

SUN-THU...NORTH WINDS EARLY SUNDAY WILL TURN NE-E IN THE AFTERNOON
AND DECREASE DUE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLING NEAR THE AREA.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEEPEN AND STRENGTHEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE SFC HIGH PUSHES OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING PROCESS. BOTH 00Z GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE DEEP MOISTURE
TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS CUBA. SO WILL KEEP MON AND TUE DRY THEN BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ATLANTIC SHOWERS STARTING TUE NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THRU MIDWEEK...PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST. SEASONABLY
COOL MORNINGS SUN AND MON THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE MILD LOWS
IN THE MID 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/NR 70 COAST. SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS SUN IN THE LOWER 80S THEN WARMING INTO THE MID 80S MON-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. SOME CLOUD CEILINGS THIS MORNING AROUND 4-5KFT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. INCREASING NE WINDS LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. CONVECTION
FORECAST TO STAY KVRB SOUTHWARD WITH SMALL THREAT OF SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NE/NNE WINDS FORECAST TO INCREASE 20-25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT SOUTH FROM SEBASTIAN INLET. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT HERE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS LIKELY FROM SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH BREVARD
COUNTY FOR WINDS OF 15-20 KTS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE
CHOPPY SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS. SEAS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT OVER THE SCA
AREA WITH SEAS FURTHER NORTH BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT.

SAT...UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTH
WINDS 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 5 TO 6 FEET. WILL AT LEAST NEED A CAUTION
FOR THE GULF STEAM AND POSSIBLY AN ADVISORY. INTRACOASTAL WATERS
WILL BE CHOPPY.

SUN-TUE...NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY BUT WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARBY. SO
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT CERTAINLY NOT
IDEAL. WINDS TURN EAST BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT 10-15 KNOTS MON AND
TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS AFTERNOON...MIN RH`S WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD
TO VERY GOOD AREAWIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  61  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  81  60  82  58 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  80  66  81  62 /  10   0  10   0
VRB  82  69  83  62 /  20  10  10   0
LEE  80  59  81  56 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  80  61  83  58 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  82  62  83  60 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  82  68  82  62 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....KELLY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 240820
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
420 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS VERY EVIDENT ON SAT LOOP THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT REACHES THE BAHAMAS BY 00Z
SAT. THIS FORECAST POSITION IS MUCH MORE IN LINE WITH GFS FORECAST
FROM YESTERDAY AND OTHER MED RANGE MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ON MUCH
BETTER TODAY. THE FORECAST TRACK OF LOW WILL KEEP THE COLD FRONT
AND ASSOC DEEP MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION (SOMETHING A BIT
IN QUESTION ON PREVIOUS DAYS) AND THIS WILL PROMOTE A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA (INCLUDING FAR SOUTH) DESPITE PRESENCE OF
STRONG LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOC WITH A STRONG S/WV TROUGH WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS ENOUGH SHALLOW ATLANTIC
MOISTURE BELOW AN H85 INVERSION TO ALLOW A CU FIELD ACROSS SRN/ERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND EVEN EXPECT BKN SKIES ACROSS THE SRN 3RD OF
THE CWA IN THE AFTN DUE TO DEVELOPING STRATA CU DECK. COOL/DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND PROMOTING SEVERAL MORE DAYS OF BELOW NORMAL LOW TEMPS BUT
EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMP RANGES
PREVAILING. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TODAY...BUT WILL
DECREASE SOME ON SATURDAY AS THE PGRAD RELAXES SOME WITH THE LOW
PULLING AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS SRN TWO MARINE ZONES WILL
RELAX IN THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG TONIGHT...BUT STILL BE SEE CAUTION LEVELS ACROSS SRN WATERS
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT DRY AIRMASS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MIN RH
VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S. NATURE COAST WILL APPROACH RED FLAG
CRITERIA SAT WITH MORE OF THE REGION APPROACHING MID 30S MIN RH BY
SUN...BUT ERC AND WIND THRESHOLDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WITH THE STORM TRACK
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...A STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
U.S. WHILE A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  THE
U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST AND EXTEND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
WEEK...WHILE THE NEXT U/L DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  QUASI ZONAL FLOW
WILL SET-UP ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY...WITH THE U/L PATTERN
AMPLIFYING THURSDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY WITH RIDGING TAKING PLACE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES.  THE U/L RIDGE OVER FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE U/L TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDING SOUTH OVER NORTH FLORIDA.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SUNDAY WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY.  BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DEW POINTS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S.  MOIST EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAY
CREATE DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE LAYER COMBINED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL CREATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  60  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  84  64  82  63 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  80  61  80  59 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  81  61  80  62 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  80  50  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  79  66  80  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GITTINGER
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KMFL 240749
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LOW, DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS, WILL BRING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THE BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST THIS EVENING, WHEN GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT ANY GIVEN TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING, AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED
IFR OCCURRENCE, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  50  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  80  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  90  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 240749
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LOW, DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS, WILL BRING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THE BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST THIS EVENING, WHEN GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT ANY GIVEN TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING, AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED
IFR OCCURRENCE, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  50  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  80  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  90  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KJAX 240716
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...
WITH HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED IT. EXPECT MOST OF THESE CLOUDS
TO PASS EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
SOUTHEAST...WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...AND AGAIN
TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR SATURDAY...WITH
A NORTHERLY FLOW. GULF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD PUSH A
FEW CLOUDS INTO NE FL. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.SHORT TERM /SAT NIGHT-MON/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST REGION SAT NIGHT
TO OVER NE FL/SE GA ON SUNDAY THEN INTO THE WRN ATLC ON MONDAY. DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES AND
LOWS 45-55 SAT NIGHT AND 50-60 SUN NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 80
SUNDAY AND 80-85 RANGE ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUE-FRI/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN THE WRN ATLC NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
AND WILL START A LONG PERIOD OF WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE POINT THAT ISOLD
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY PUSH INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN FROM WED THROUGH FRI. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT RAIN
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE AT 20% OR LESS AS ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
APPEAR LIGHT AT THIS TIME. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80-85
DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 50S INLAND/60S COAST/ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS 06Z TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

A LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...WHICH
MAY CAUSE A LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE PREVAILING WEATHER CONDITION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW...WHICH
WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 30% ACROSS INLD SE GA
AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF INLD NE FL...BUT WILL REMAIN JUST
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  56  74  57 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  76  53  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  75  60  75  57 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  77  51  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  79  52  77  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/HESS






000
FXUS62 KTAE 240626
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
226 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A shortwave trough will move through the region this morning.
Ahead of this feature, mid and high level cloudiness will
continue to stream over the region. By late morning and early
afternoon, as the main trough axis moves east of the region,
skies will become mostly sunny allowing for temperatures to warm
into the mid to upper 70s.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Upper trough over the region tonight will slide eastward through
the weekend and be replaced by an upper ridge by Sunday. A very
dry and seasonable airmass will remain in place with slowly
modifying temperatures. Low temperature in the mid to upper 40s
tonight will warm to the upper 40s to lower 50s by Sunday morning.
Highs in the upper 70s on Saturday will rise to the lower 80s by
Sunday.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday.
At that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this
trough will slide eastward. However, there are differences among
the models in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high
pressure over the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the
Southeast U.S. coast early next work week. The position of the
deep layer ridging just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum.
Slight chance PoPs do not return return to the forecast until
Wednesday and Thursday. A front will be approaching from the
northwest on Thursday. However, the 12Z run of the GFS is now
much less progressive than earlier runs to bring it through the
forecast area. The consensus of the current suite of model
guidance keeps any weak tropical lows confined to the Caribbean
Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] Aside from a CS layer between 20kft and
25kft moving through the region on Friday morning, skies will be
clear throughout the remainder of the TAF cycle with light N to
NE winds during the daytime hours.

&&

.Marine...
High pressure west of the area and low pressure well to the south
will keep northeasterly flow in place over the waters through the
weekend. Winds may occasionally approach 15 knots during the
overnight hours but no headline conditions are expected. High
pressure will slide over the waters by late Sunday into Monday
with very light winds and minimal seas. As the high slides
eastward, onshore flow will develop by late Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry conditions will continue through the next few days across the
region. Relative humidity values will approach critical levels in
North Florida on Friday and Saturday afternoons, but red flag
criteria are not expected to be met.

&&

.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   78  44  79  47  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  54  79  56  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        77  46  78  51  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  46  79  51  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      77  46  78  48  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  46  80  46  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  78  52  77  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...WOOL








000
FXUS62 KMFL 240552
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
152 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
A LOW, DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS, WILL BRING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THE BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST THIS EVENING, WHEN GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT ANY GIVEN TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING, AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED
IFR OCCURRENCE, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

..HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING MIAMI-DADE INTO BROWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPDATE...GPS MET DATA SHOWS THAT A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT
BISECTS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PWAT CURRENTLY AT OKEECHOBEE IS
REGISTERING ONLY 0.70 INCHES WHILE IT`S 1.9 INCHES AT MIAMI AND
2.1 INCHES AT CARD SOUND.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SE GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE ACROSS
THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT THEN INTO THE BAHAMAS BY FRI EVENING. AS IT
DOES, MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SE FL/KEYS WILL LIKELY INCREASE A
TAD...PUSHING PWATS POSSIBLY TO ~2.25 INCHES FRIDAY (NEAR THE
99TH PERCENTILE HISTORICALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)...AND WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, COASTAL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A WET NEXT 24 HR ACROSS THE
MIAMI METRO AND INTO THE FT. LAUDERDALE METRO. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE RAIN. CURRENT THINKING IS THE BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL OVER MIAMI-DADE INTO BROWARD COUNTY. 12Z ECMWF BRINGS
THE LOW CENTER SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO SE FLORIDA AND THUS HAS QPF
FURTHER INLAND AND NORTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS. HOWEVER, THE
18Z GFS FOLLOWED THE ECMWF TREND. SO THE TREND LOOKS WET FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST FL.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PWATS ALONG WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND AN
INCOMING JET (PRODUCING SLIGHT DIVERGENCE ALOFT EASTERN AREAS),
COULD SPELL HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WE ARE EYEING MIAMI-DADE
AND BROWARD FOR POTENTIAL OF TRAINING BANDS. WE`VE SEEN IT
BEFORE...EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLOODING COULD RESULT. CONTEMPLATED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MIAMI-DADE AND POSSIBLY BROWARD...BUT BELIEVE
THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST FRIDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON, SO WILL HOLD OFF
AND HAVE THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THEIR ASSESSMENT.
/GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT BY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO STAY CONCENTRATED OVER MIAMI-DADE AND
PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE FRONT, THIS WIND CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASING AND IT IS
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A LESSER RISK OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY INTO 00Z SATURDAY.

MARINE...

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
SOUTH, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY, AND EXTENDING
INTO 00Z SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 200 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  81  70  82  69 /  40  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  73  82  71 /  60  30  10   0
MIAMI            81  71  82  68 /  70  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  66  82  65 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KTBW 240522 AAB
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
122 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT REMAINS ACROSS DEEP S FL. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC TRAPPED BELOW AN
INVERSION TO PROVIDE BKN CU ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY BY
LATE MORNING...BUT THIS CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
3500 FT AGL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSE TO THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
SETUP AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THIN ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON
TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST IS NEEDED.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

MARINE...
BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
OUT TO 60 NM...AS WELL AS IN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR THE
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT MAINLY REMAIN BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL THEREFORE
LOWER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND TAMPA BAY AND HEADLINE
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  62  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  85  63  83  61 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  82  60  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  83  63  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  81  51  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  81  68  81  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON






000
FXUS62 KTAE 240157
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Current fcst is fairly well on track, and only significant change
was to increase the cloud cover to account for the advancing
cirrus and cirrostratus out ahead of the next dry cold front.
However, this cloudiness should move through fast enough overnight
to have minimal impacts on overnight low temps.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Outside of the high cloudiness, the
persistent VFR conditions with light winds will continue at the
terminals through the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [317 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity of the northwest
Gulf Coast and will keep our local weather rain-free through the
period. An upper level trough will swing across the area on Friday,
but will only be attended by some high clouds. A gradually
moderating trend in temperatures is expected through the period.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday. At
that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this trough
will slide eastward. However, there are differences among the models
in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high pressure over
the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast early next work week. The position of the deep layer ridging
just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum. Slight chance PoPs do
not return return to the forecast until Wednesday and Thursday. A
front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday. However,
the 12Z run of the GFS is now much less progressive than earlier
runs to bring it through the forecast area. The consensus of the
current suite of model guidance keeps any weak tropical lows
confined to the Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.


.Marine...
Winds have dropped below exercise caution thresholds, but will
remain around 15 knots across the offshore legs into this evening.
A gradual weakening trend in the offshore winds is expected through
the weekend high pressure moves closer to the forecast area. Winds
will then veer to southeasterly and increase once again early next
week. No rain is expected through the period.


.Fire Weather...
Dry air will continue to hold across the Tri-State area through
Saturday, but it will not be quite dry enough to cause any Red
Flag concerns. For the remainder of the weekend and into next
week, a gradual moistening trend is expected with afternoon
relative humidities climbing back to above normal levels for this
time of year.


.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  79  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  78  54  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        45  77  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  78  46  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  77  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    45  79  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  51  77  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WOOL/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL







000
FXUS62 KTAE 240157
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Current fcst is fairly well on track, and only significant change
was to increase the cloud cover to account for the advancing
cirrus and cirrostratus out ahead of the next dry cold front.
However, this cloudiness should move through fast enough overnight
to have minimal impacts on overnight low temps.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Outside of the high cloudiness, the
persistent VFR conditions with light winds will continue at the
terminals through the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [317 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity of the northwest
Gulf Coast and will keep our local weather rain-free through the
period. An upper level trough will swing across the area on Friday,
but will only be attended by some high clouds. A gradually
moderating trend in temperatures is expected through the period.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday. At
that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this trough
will slide eastward. However, there are differences among the models
in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high pressure over
the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast early next work week. The position of the deep layer ridging
just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum. Slight chance PoPs do
not return return to the forecast until Wednesday and Thursday. A
front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday. However,
the 12Z run of the GFS is now much less progressive than earlier
runs to bring it through the forecast area. The consensus of the
current suite of model guidance keeps any weak tropical lows
confined to the Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.


.Marine...
Winds have dropped below exercise caution thresholds, but will
remain around 15 knots across the offshore legs into this evening.
A gradual weakening trend in the offshore winds is expected through
the weekend high pressure moves closer to the forecast area. Winds
will then veer to southeasterly and increase once again early next
week. No rain is expected through the period.


.Fire Weather...
Dry air will continue to hold across the Tri-State area through
Saturday, but it will not be quite dry enough to cause any Red
Flag concerns. For the remainder of the weekend and into next
week, a gradual moistening trend is expected with afternoon
relative humidities climbing back to above normal levels for this
time of year.


.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  79  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  78  54  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        45  77  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  78  46  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  77  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    45  79  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  51  77  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WOOL/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 240150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSE TO THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
SETUP AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THIN ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON
TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST IS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
OUT TO 60 NM...AS WELL AS IN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR THE
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT MAINLY REMAIN BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL THEREFORE
LOWER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND TAMPA BAY AND HEADLINE
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  82  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  65  85  63  83 /  10  10  10   0
GIF  59  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  61  83  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  50  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  67  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KTBW 240150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS FAR SOUTH FLORIDA CLOSE TO THE NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST
OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS
SETUP AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID 40S FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S CENTRAL AREAS. FURTHER SOUTH THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN THIN ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON
TRACK AND NO EVENING UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST IS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS...TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
OUT TO 60 NM...AS WELL AS IN TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR THE
LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS COULD INCREASE TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR AN HOUR OR SO...BUT MAINLY REMAIN BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AND WILL THEREFORE
LOWER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS AND TAMPA BAY AND HEADLINE
WITH SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  82  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  65  85  63  83 /  10  10  10   0
GIF  59  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  61  83  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  50  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  67  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$






000
FXUS62 KKEY 240121
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
925 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE UPPER KEYS...AS WELL AS OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER
THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTHEAST TO
EAST NEAR 15 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND
EXTREMELY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST UNDER TWO AND
ONE HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN CONSTANT
OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE KEPT
ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS DUE CYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COUPLED WITH THE EXCEPTIONALLY MOIST AIR
MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS NEAR 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAWK
CHANNEL...AND FLORIDA BAY SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTH TO
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT DUE TO SUSTAINED NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE ISLAND TERMINALS OF KEY WEST AND
MARATHON WILL TREND TOWARDS DECREASING RAIN CHANCES...BUT WITH
STRONG...AND GUSTY AT TIMES NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. RAIN CHANCES WITH
MVFR CATEGORY CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT SHOULD MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE MID MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY LATE ON FRIDAY...WHICH MAY CAUSE A CROSSWIND CONDITION AT
THE AREA AIRPORTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2005...A LARGE
WATERSPOUT NARROWLY MISSED MAKING LANDFALL IN KEY WEST AS IT RACED
NORTHWARD WITHIN AN OUTER RAINBAND OF HURRICANE WILMA. THIS VIOLENT
WATERSPOUT PASSED WITHIN THREE TO FOUR MILES WEST OF THE WEST END
OF KEY WEST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MSB
DATA ACQUISITION.....................CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 240036
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
836 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPREAD
EWD INTO OUR GA ZONES AND ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TO
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. BY THE TIME HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN
SUFFICIENTLY...MIN TEMPS WILL LIKELY HAVE FALLEN TO THE MID AND
UPPER 40S FOR INLAND AREAS...AND LOWER TO MID 50S COAST. WINDS
TONIGHT NEAR CALM INLAND AND LIGHT NLY FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE REGION. OTHER THAN
SLIGHT TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND SKY CONDITION NEXT 24 HRS NO CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND NELY WINDS 5-10 KT ON
FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. FEW-SCT STRATOCU
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY AROUND 2500-4000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH N-NE WINDS NEAR 10 KT AND SEAS
OF 2-4 FT. MAINLY SHORT PERIOD WIND-WAVES AT 6 SECONDS OR LESS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  78  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  53  75  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  47  77  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  57  76  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  48  78  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  51  79  51  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/NELSON/GUILLET





000
FXUS62 KKEY 240018 RRA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
230 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES...NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE COVERING THE FLORIDA
KEYS...HAWK CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THE WATERS IN AND AROUND DRY TORTUGAS AND THE OUTER
WATERS OF MAINLAND MONROE. DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING BETWEEN 75 AND 80 DEGREES. SURFACE
WISE...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...AN EARLIER ASCAT AND C-MAN OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A COUPLE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THESE
IMPULSES ALOFT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO OUR
REGION BY LATE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...NO
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. BUT UNTIL THEN...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...WILL DROP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED BY FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AVERAGING IN
THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL EXPAND AND INTENSIFY OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF
COAST REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THE
DEEPENING AND FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW...MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH ISOLATED CLIMO 20 PERCENT POPS AND
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS LATER TONIGHT...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SLACKENING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL ABATE SOMEWHAT SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...BEFORE FRESHENING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHEN ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.


&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 24/12Z AT BOTH
THE KEYS WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. THE WET PATTERN COMBINED WITH
THE EASTERLY WINDS BELOW 12K FEET CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
INTERMITTENT LOW LEVEL SHOWERS CROSSING THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME
GUSTINESS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS. WINDS INCREASE QUICKLY TO NEAR 20
KNOTS OFF THE DECK...ABOVE 1K FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...2005...A VIOLENT WATERSPOUT
DEVELOPED IN THE OUTERMOST RAINBAND OF HURRICANE WILMA AND PASSED
JUST TO THE WEST OF KEY WEST. THIS WATERSPOUT WAS EXTREMELY LARGE
AND TRACKED FROM 20 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST TO THE GULF WATERS WEST
OF MARCO ISLAND IN COLLIER COUNTY...NEARLY 140 MILES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  82  82  75 / 70 70 30 -
MARATHON  74  82  82  74 / 70 70 30 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 240018
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING MIAMI-DADE INTO BROWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...GPS MET DATA SHOWS THAT A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT
BISECTS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PWAT CURRENTLY AT OKEECHOBEE IS
REGISTERING ONLY 0.70 INCHES WHILE IT`S 1.9 INCHES AT MIAMI AND
2.1 INCHES AT CARD SOUND.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SE GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE ACROSS
THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT THEN INTO THE BAHAMAS BY FRI EVENING. AS IT
DOES, MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SE FL/KEYS WILL LIKELY INCREASE A
TAD...PUSHING PWATS POSSIBLY TO ~2.25 INCHES FRIDAY (NEAR THE
99TH PERCENTILE HISTORICALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)...AND WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, COASTAL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A WET NEXT 24 HR ACROSS THE
MIAMI METRO AND INTO THE FT. LAUDERDALE METRO. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE RAIN. CURRENT THINKING IS THE BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL OVER MIAMI-DADE INTO BROWARD COUNTY. 12Z ECMWF BRINGS
THE LOW CENTER SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO SE FLORIDA AND THUS HAS QPF
FURTHER INLAND AND NORTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS. HOWEVER, THE
18Z GFS FOLLOWED THE ECMWF TREND. SO THE TREND LOOKS WET FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST FL.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PWATS ALONG WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND AN
INCOMING JET (PRODUCING SLIGHT DIVERGENCE ALOFT EASTERN AREAS),
COULD SPELL HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WE ARE EYEING MIAMI-DADE
AND BROWARD FOR POTENTIAL OF TRAINING BANDS. WE`VE SEEN IT
BEFORE...EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLOODING COULD RESULT. CONTEMPLATED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MIAMI-DADE AND POSSIBLY BROWARD...BUT BELIEVE
THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST FRIDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON, SO WILL HOLD OFF
AND HAVE THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THEIR ASSESSMENT.
/GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS (CEILINGS 2,500 TO 5,000 FT) EXPECTED
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. HOWEVER,
CEILING/VSBYS IN OCCASIONAL SHRA WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY FLL/MIA AREA TERMINALS WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. PBI AND APF WILL REMAIN VFR WITH DRIER AIR AND
LITTLE TO NO SHRA IN THESE AREAS. SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLS AWAY. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15G25KT OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
/MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT BY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO STAY CONCENTRATED OVER MIAMI-DADE AND
PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE FRONT, THIS WIND CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASING AND IT IS
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A LESSER RISK OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY INTO 00Z SATURDAY.

MARINE...

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
SOUTH, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY, AND EXTENDING
INTO 00Z SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 200 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION (ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014)

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH. ISOLATED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHRAS BUT
MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LAMP
GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW AT ALL EAST
COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  70  82 /  20  40  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  81  73  82 /  50  60  30  10
MIAMI            74  81  71  82 /  60  70  30  10
NAPLES           69  83  66  82 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMLB 240014
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
814 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND NON TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST REGION. DESPITE SOME
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EVIDENT BY CLOUD COVER ACROSS
MARTIN COUNTY...MODELS NOT TOO KEEN ON ANY ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
IN THIS REGION. HAVE THEREFORE REMOVED THE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES
FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. TEMPS WILL
FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COAST WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG COASTAL REGIONS SOUTH OF THE
CAPE WHERE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED. BKN-OVC SKIES EXPECTED AT KSUA
BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3KFT.


&&

.MARINE...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NON TROPICAL LOW MOVING TOWARD THE
FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS SOUTH
OF SEBASTIAN INLET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT
OVER THESE WATERS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW UP
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE TREASURE
COAST...PRODUCING CHOPPY SEAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM
WATERS UP TO 7 FEET.


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST







000
FXUS62 KMLB 232132
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
532 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

.MARINE...UPDATED MARINE FORECAST EARLY TO INCLUDE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE PORTIONS OF THESE
WATERS INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS UP TO 7 FEET INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ALOFT FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING AND A DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS RIDGES SOUTHEAST OVER
FLORIDA AND REMAINS OVER FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORT A STABLE MARINE AIR
MASS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANY PRECIP
TONIGHT WOULD BE LIMITED TO MARTIN COUNTY AND THE ADJOINING
COASTAL WATERS THEN RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S FROM AROUND DAYTONA...INTERSTATE 4 AND WEST.
LOWER 60S FROM AROUND ORLANDO SOUTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. MID
60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED ZONES DISCUSSION.

SUN-WED...DEEP LAYER RIDGING MOVES FROM THE GOMEX TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS SUN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENING INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE
MARINE INFLUENCE MAY ENTER THE PICTURE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE-WED.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER BY AROUND
MID-WEEK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING A LOW OVER THE GULF WITH
DEEP MOISTURE BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE ADDED CHANCE
POPS TO THIS DAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL CONSISTENCY TO SEE
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TEMPO MVFR VCSH POSSIBLE KSUA SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...BUOYS CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120 NM. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA STRAIT AND
CUBA SHOULD SUPPORT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
NEARSHORE FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN. SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4
TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND 4 TO 5...OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM...
OFFSHORE.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DEEPENING ONSHORE
FLOW BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT POSSIBLY
BUILDING MON OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRI-SUN...MIN RH`S WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  80  58  79 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  60  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  80  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  68  82  64  82 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  58  81  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  68  82  63  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WEITLICH
FORECASTS...WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KTBW 231954
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
OVER THE STATE. THIS IS KEEPING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AND A MODERATE/GUSTY NE FLOW IN PLACE. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXTREME SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S COASTAL FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH A S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A STRONG
U/L RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE U/L RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH DRY STABLE
AIR OVER THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE U/L RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EAST OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
AS A BROAD U/L TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY WILL CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH MID WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE U/L TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
NE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER 14Z. SKIES AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY SCT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN
EASTERLY SURGE IN WINDS AFTER SUNSET. TAMPA BAY INCLUDED IN ADVISORY
DUE TO EXPECTED WINDS AT MOUTH OF BAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX
ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL CAUSE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL THEN MODERATE
THEREAFTER. ERC VALUES ARE LOW AND WINDS ARE BELOW 15 MPH...SO NO
WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  82  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  65  85  63  83 /  10  10  10   0
GIF  59  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  61  83  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  49  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  67  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
MARINE...72/NOAH DECISION
SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 231954
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
354 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
OVER THE STATE. THIS IS KEEPING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA AND A MODERATE/GUSTY NE FLOW IN PLACE. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXTREME SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S NORTH TONIGHT...WITH MID-UPPER 50S
INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S COASTAL FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH A S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A STRONG
U/L RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE U/L RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH DRY STABLE
AIR OVER THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT AND PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF THE U/L RIDGE
WILL SLIDE EAST OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
AS A BROAD U/L TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST ON TUESDAY WILL CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
THROUGH MID WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE U/L TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
NE FLOW WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER 14Z. SKIES AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY SCT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT AN
EASTERLY SURGE IN WINDS AFTER SUNSET. TAMPA BAY INCLUDED IN ADVISORY
DUE TO EXPECTED WINDS AT MOUTH OF BAY. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX
ON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL CAUSE A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL THEN MODERATE
THEREAFTER. ERC VALUES ARE LOW AND WINDS ARE BELOW 15 MPH...SO NO
WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  62  82  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  65  85  63  83 /  10  10  10   0
GIF  59  82  60  82 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  61  83  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  49  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  67  81  70  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
MARINE...72/NOAH DECISION
SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KMLB 231921
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
321 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ALOFT FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING AND A DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS RIDGES SOUTHEAST OVER
FLORIDA AND REMAINS OVER FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORT A STABLE MARINE AIR
MASS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANY PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MARTIN COUNTY AND THE
ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS THEN RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 10 PERCENT OR
LESS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FROM AROUND DAYTONA...INTERSTATE 4 AND
WEST. LOWER 60S FROM AROUND ORLANDO SOUTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
95. MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED ZONES DISCUSSION.

SUN-WED...DEEP LAYER RIDGING MOVES FROM THE GOMEX TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS SUN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENING INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE
MARINE INFLUENCE MAY ENTER THE PICTURE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE-WED.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER BY AROUND
MID-WEEK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING A LOW OVER THE GULF WITH
DEEP MOISTURE BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE ADDED CHANCE
POPS TO THIS DAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL CONSISTENCY TO SEE
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TEMPO MVFR VCSH POSSIBLE KSUA SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...BUOYS CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120 NM. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA STRAIT AND
CUBA SHOULD SUPPORT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
NEARSHORE FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN. SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4
TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT SEAS IN THE GULL STREAM.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND 4 TO 5...OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM...
OFFSHORE.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DEEPENING ONSHORE
FLOW BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT POSSIBLY
BUILDING MON OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRI-SUN...MIN RH`S WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  80  58  79 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  60  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  80  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  68  82  64  82 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  58  81  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  68  82  63  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KMLB 231921
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
321 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...SHORTWAVE ALOFT FINALLY LIFTS AWAY FROM
CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING AND A DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDWEST OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS RIDGES SOUTHEAST OVER
FLORIDA AND REMAINS OVER FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PERSISTENT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TRANSPORT A STABLE MARINE AIR
MASS INTO THE COASTAL AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANY PRECIP
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WOULD BE LIMITED TO MARTIN COUNTY AND THE
ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS THEN RAIN CHANCES DROP TO 10 PERCENT OR
LESS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FROM AROUND DAYTONA...INTERSTATE 4 AND
WEST. LOWER 60S FROM AROUND ORLANDO SOUTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE
95. MID 60S EAST OF INTERSTATE 95.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED ZONES DISCUSSION.

SUN-WED...DEEP LAYER RIDGING MOVES FROM THE GOMEX TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS SUN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENING INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE
MARINE INFLUENCE MAY ENTER THE PICTURE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE-WED.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER BY AROUND
MID-WEEK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING A LOW OVER THE GULF WITH
DEEP MOISTURE BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE ADDED CHANCE
POPS TO THIS DAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL CONSISTENCY TO SEE
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TEMPO MVFR VCSH POSSIBLE KSUA SOUTH THROUGH MIDNIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...BUOYS CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120 NM. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA STRAIT AND
CUBA SHOULD SUPPORT NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
NEARSHORE FLAGLER BEACH TO SEBASTIAN. SLIGHTLY STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET AND THE OFFSHORE WATERS FLAGLER
BEACH TO JUPITER INLET. SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE...4
TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE WITH OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT SEAS IN THE GULL STREAM.

FRI-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS
RIDGES OVER THE SOUTHEAST ND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND FLORIDA.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND 3 TO 4 FOOT SEAS NEAR
SHORE AND 4 TO 5...OCCASIONAL 6 FOOT WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM...
OFFSHORE.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DEEPENING ONSHORE
FLOW BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT POSSIBLY
BUILDING MON OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRI-SUN...MIN RH`S WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN
INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  80  58  79 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  60  82  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  66  80  63  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  68  82  64  82 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  58  81  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  81  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  81  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  68  82  63  81 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER







000
FXUS62 KTAE 231917
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer ridging is leading to another dry, sunny day. In the
wake of a cold front, temperatures are slightly below normal
today and that should continue into tonight. Widespread lows in
the mid 40s are expected, except right along the Gulf coast and in
the city of Tallahassee. Some high cirrus may arrive later
tonight, but that should not impact temperatures too much.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity of the northwest
Gulf Coast and will keep our local weather rain-free through the
period. An upper level trough will swing across the area on Friday,
but will only be attended by some high clouds. A gradually
moderating trend in temperatures is expected through the period.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday. At
that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this trough
will slide eastward. However, there are differences among the models
in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high pressure over
the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast early next work week. The position of the deep layer ridging
just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum. Slight chance PoPs do
not return return to the forecast until Wednesday and Thursday. A
front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday. However,
the 12Z run of the GFS is now much less progressive than earlier
runs to bring it through the forecast area. The consensus of the
current suite of model guidance keeps any weak tropical lows
confined to the Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] Clear skies (VFR conditions) and light winds
should prevail through the TAF period. Some high cirrus may arrive
later tonight, but that will not impact the flight category.

&&

.Marine...
Winds have dropped below exercise caution thresholds, but will
remain around 15 knots across the offshore legs into this evening.
A gradual weakening trend in the offshore winds is expected through
the weekend high pressure moves closer to the forecast area. Winds
will then veer to southeasterly and increase once again early next
week. No rain is expected through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry air will continue to hold across the Tri-State area through
Saturday, but it will not be quite dry enough to cause any Red
Flag concerns. For the remainder of the weekend and into next
week, a gradual moistening trend is expected with afternoon
relative humidities climbing back to above normal levels for this
time of year.

&&

.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  79  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  78  54  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        45  77  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  78  46  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  77  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    45  79  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  51  77  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL







000
FXUS62 KTAE 231917
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer ridging is leading to another dry, sunny day. In the
wake of a cold front, temperatures are slightly below normal
today and that should continue into tonight. Widespread lows in
the mid 40s are expected, except right along the Gulf coast and in
the city of Tallahassee. Some high cirrus may arrive later
tonight, but that should not impact temperatures too much.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity of the northwest
Gulf Coast and will keep our local weather rain-free through the
period. An upper level trough will swing across the area on Friday,
but will only be attended by some high clouds. A gradually
moderating trend in temperatures is expected through the period.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday. At
that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this trough
will slide eastward. However, there are differences among the models
in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high pressure over
the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast early next work week. The position of the deep layer ridging
just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum. Slight chance PoPs do
not return return to the forecast until Wednesday and Thursday. A
front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday. However,
the 12Z run of the GFS is now much less progressive than earlier
runs to bring it through the forecast area. The consensus of the
current suite of model guidance keeps any weak tropical lows
confined to the Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] Clear skies (VFR conditions) and light winds
should prevail through the TAF period. Some high cirrus may arrive
later tonight, but that will not impact the flight category.

&&

.Marine...
Winds have dropped below exercise caution thresholds, but will
remain around 15 knots across the offshore legs into this evening.
A gradual weakening trend in the offshore winds is expected through
the weekend high pressure moves closer to the forecast area. Winds
will then veer to southeasterly and increase once again early next
week. No rain is expected through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry air will continue to hold across the Tri-State area through
Saturday, but it will not be quite dry enough to cause any Red
Flag concerns. For the remainder of the weekend and into next
week, a gradual moistening trend is expected with afternoon
relative humidities climbing back to above normal levels for this
time of year.

&&

.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  79  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  78  54  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        45  77  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  78  46  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  77  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    45  79  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  51  77  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL







000
FXUS62 KMFL 231902
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
302 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT BY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO STAY CONCENTRATED OVER MIAMI-DADE AND
PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE FRONT, THIS WIND CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASING AND IT IS
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A LESSER RISK OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY INTO 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
SOUTH, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY, AND EXTENDING
INTO 00Z SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 200 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION (ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014)

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH. ISOLATED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHRAS BUT
MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LAMP
GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW AT ALL EAST
COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  70  82 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  81  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            74  81  71  82 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  83  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231902
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
302 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT BY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO STAY CONCENTRATED OVER MIAMI-DADE AND
PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE FRONT, THIS WIND CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASING AND IT IS
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A LESSER RISK OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY INTO 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
SOUTH, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY, AND EXTENDING
INTO 00Z SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 200 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION (ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014)

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH. ISOLATED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHRAS BUT
MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LAMP
GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW AT ALL EAST
COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  70  82 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  81  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            74  81  71  82 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  83  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231814
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH.
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING
SHRAS BUT MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
WITH LAMP GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
AT ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE
INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...

A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 1.87
IN. WINDS IN THE LOWER 2 KM ARE MAINLY EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO PUSH
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. THIS CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW OF THESE BANDS COULD STILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED URBAN
FLOODING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 70S OVER MIAMI-
DADE AND THE MID 60S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES ARE WEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR (AROUND -5.5C/KM).
SIMILARLY, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -5 TO -6C. THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER SOME
DRYING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AROUND 700 MB WITH A LARGE DRYING
OCCURRING AROUND 500 MB BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  69  81 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  82  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            73  82  71  81 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  82  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...71/JE
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231814
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH.
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING
SHRAS BUT MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
WITH LAMP GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
AT ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE
INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...

A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 1.87
IN. WINDS IN THE LOWER 2 KM ARE MAINLY EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO PUSH
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. THIS CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW OF THESE BANDS COULD STILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED URBAN
FLOODING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 70S OVER MIAMI-
DADE AND THE MID 60S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES ARE WEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR (AROUND -5.5C/KM).
SIMILARLY, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -5 TO -6C. THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER SOME
DRYING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AROUND 700 MB WITH A LARGE DRYING
OCCURRING AROUND 500 MB BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  69  81 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  82  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            73  82  71  81 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  82  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...71/JE
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KJAX 231813
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
213 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP.

SAT & SAT NIGHT...SUNNY...COOL AND DRY WITH DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDINGS OVER THE
W-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 INLAND...TO
MID 50S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

SUN & SUN NIGHT...MEAN LAYER RIDING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE FL PENINSULA AS A WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THE SE ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER GA. NORTHERLY FLOW
WEAKENS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PASSING CLOUDS SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH...BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO OCCASIONAL
PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR 80 SUNDAY WITH
RISING HEIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND SUN NIGHT TO
NEAR 60 RIVER BASIN/COAST. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC COUPLED
WITH CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THU/...

LOW MAINLY COASTAL RAIN CHANCES MID-WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A
WARMER SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A LOW 20% CHANCE OF COASTAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE-WED WITH INCREASING CHANCES THU AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
NW. TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO VALUES WITH LOWS WILL
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID 60S RIVER BASIN/COAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH NE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY BRIEFLY BECOMING OFFSHORE
SUNDAY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  78  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  53  75  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  47  77  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  57  76  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  48  78  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  51  79  51  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/ENYEDI/WALKER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 231813
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
213 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN
STORE FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S AT THE BEACHES. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPS WILL
PREVAIL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN WAY TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY PRECIP.

SAT & SAT NIGHT...SUNNY...COOL AND DRY WITH DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDINGS OVER THE
W-CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 INLAND...TO
MID 50S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

SUN & SUN NIGHT...MEAN LAYER RIDING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST OVER
THE FL PENINSULA AS A WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN
THE SE ATLANTIC COAST AND BECOMES DIFFUSE OVER GA. NORTHERLY FLOW
WEAKENS AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE RIDGING BUILDS
OVERHEAD. COULD SEE SOME PASSING CLOUDS SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH...BUT OVERALL SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO OCCASIONAL
PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPS WILL REBOUND TO NEAR 80 SUNDAY WITH
RISING HEIGHTS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND SUN NIGHT TO
NEAR 60 RIVER BASIN/COAST. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC COUPLED
WITH CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THU/...

LOW MAINLY COASTAL RAIN CHANCES MID-WEEK WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD WITH ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL SHIFT EAST WITH A
WARMER SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A LOW 20% CHANCE OF COASTAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE TUE-WED WITH INCREASING CHANCES THU AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE
NW. TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO VALUES WITH LOWS WILL
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID 60S RIVER BASIN/COAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH NE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY BRIEFLY BECOMING OFFSHORE
SUNDAY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  78  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  53  75  56  75 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  47  77  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  57  76  58  76 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  48  78  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  51  79  51  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/ENYEDI/WALKER








000
FXUS62 KKEY 231509
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1108 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND SCATTERED CELLS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND NORTHWARD
INTO THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. SURFACE WISE...A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES AND DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG EAST WINDS BELOW 700 MB WILL
PROVIDE FORMIDABLE MOISTURE FLUX AND LOW LEVEL SPEED CONFLUENCE.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE UPDATED
THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS FROM CATEGORICAL TO 60
PERCENT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STRAITS WILL RESULT IN
FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG EAST WINDS ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HENCE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN STRAITS AND OUTER WATERS OF
MAINLAND MONROE...AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION ELSEWHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WET NEAR BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY...AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY CLOSE IN ON THE
KEYS WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS AT
1K FEET...HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA.

&&


.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 231504
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1104 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 12Z Tallahassee sounding revealed a very shallow inversion
layer around only 800 ft AGL. This shallow inversion has mixed out
quickly, which allowed the TLH temperature to increase from 43 to
63 (20 degree increase) in just two hours between 8 AM and 10 AM.
However, a stronger frontal inversion aloft should limit how warm
the temperatures can get today, despite sunny skies. Model
consensus is in the mid-upper 70s for highs, and that is what we
are forecasting as well. There were very few changes from the
inherited forecast.

&&

.Prev Discussion [253 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A northern stream shortwave currently over the Northern Plains
will dive into and through the Southeast Friday through Saturday.
With a large pool of dry air sprawling across the eastern third of
the country through the central Gulf, and a very progressive
wave, there won`t be nearly enough return flow to supply any
deep layer moisture to the system as it moves into our region.
Further, low-level flow will remain northerly around high pressure
which will hardly be affected by the passing shortwave. In short,
Friday and Saturday will remain dry with highs near seasonal
averages, and lows around 10 degrees below average.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]

VFR conditions and light northeasterly winds will prevail through
the forecast period.


.Marine...

Cautionary level winds will prevail through today, before a
gradual weakening through the weekend as the calm center of high
pressure moves nearer. Winds will veer southeasterly and increase
once again early next week. No rain is expected through the weekend.


.Fire Weather...

Humidity values will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s today and
Friday across the area. However, with light winds, and ERC values
forecast to remain below 37, no Red Flag conditions are expected at
this time.


.Hydrology...

Dry conditions will continue through at least mid-week next week,
with no hydrological issue to report.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  44  79  45  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   75  53  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        74  46  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        74  45  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  44  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  45  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  75  53  77  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN







000
FXUS62 KTBW 231436
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1036 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
PROVIDING SOME INCREASED/GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND TAMPA BAY. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER DEW POINTS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES ALLOWING AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO THE LOWER
30 PERCENT RANGE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
A MODERATE NE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO 18-20KTS. WINDS SHOULD
THEN LOWER TO 5-8KTS AFTER 00Z. SKIES AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE MORNING
TOMORROW AS ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WHERE WINDS
DROP BELOW 20 KTS BUT OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY WITH ANOTHER NOCTURNAL
SURGE OVERNIGHT. SCA HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE BAY AS LOCAL HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS NEARING 20 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
CLOSER TO THE PORT...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...BUT SCA CONDITIONS DO APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF TAMPA BAY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 231436
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1036 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS
ALLOWING FOR A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND
PROVIDING SOME INCREASED/GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND TAMPA BAY. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LOWER DEW POINTS IN PLACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES ALLOWING AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL TO THE LOWER
30 PERCENT RANGE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
A MODERATE NE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING IN THE AFTERNOON TO 18-20KTS. WINDS SHOULD
THEN LOWER TO 5-8KTS AFTER 00Z. SKIES AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN
VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AND
SCT-BKN SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE MORNING
TOMORROW AS ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WHERE WINDS
DROP BELOW 20 KTS BUT OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY WITH ANOTHER NOCTURNAL
SURGE OVERNIGHT. SCA HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE BAY AS LOCAL HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS NEARING 20 KTS NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
CLOSER TO THE PORT...WINDS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...BUT SCA CONDITIONS DO APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF TAMPA BAY
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60
     NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KJAX 231417
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1017 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR MASS (0.38 INCH PWAT ON 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING) WILL MAINTAIN SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80 SOUTH. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN
STORE TONIGHT WITH LOWS OF 45 TO 50 INLAND WITH LOWER TO MID 50S
COAST. SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK AND NO CHANGES WILL BE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2 TO 4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  54  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  76  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  76  57  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  78  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  79  49  80  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER//WALKER








000
FXUS62 KMFL 231330
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 1.87
IN. WINDS IN THE LOWER 2 KM ARE MAINLY EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO PUSH
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. THIS CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW OF THESE BANDS COULD STILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED URBAN
FLODDING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 70S OVER MIAMI-
DADE AND THE MID 60S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES ARE WEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR (AROUND -5.5C/KM).
SIMILARLY, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -5 TO -6C. THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER SOME
DRYING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AROUND 700 MB WITH A LARGE DRYING
OCCURRING AROUND 500 MB BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  72  81  69 /  50  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  73 /  80  60  60  30
MIAMI            82  73  82  71 /  90  70  70  30
NAPLES           84  69  82  66 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR/THU WX BRIEFING...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMLB 231327
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEYS RIDGES SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FIRST FEW
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING THAT THE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WIND
FLOW WAS PUSHING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS...STRATOCUMULUS AND
CUMULUS...TO THE COAST WITH OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SOUTH
OF FORT PIERCE. STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH THE LOWER PRESSURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING
NORTHEAST FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WAS PRODUCING A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM AROUND FORT PIERCE
SOUTH. BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ALONG THE
MARTIN COUNTY AND ITS COASTAL WATERS.

CURRENT FORECAST DEPICTS THIS PICTURE.

THE MORNING ZONE UPDATE WILL ADDRESS THE WINDS AND ITS RELATED
GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. TEMPO MVFR VCSH KSUA SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...THE 9 AM BUOY REPORTS WERE INDICATING
NORTHEAST WINDS AT 12 TO 14 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM
AND UP TO 4 FEET AT 120NM OFFSHORE.

WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS FORT PIERCE INLET SOUTH WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS A LITTLE STRONGER.

MINOR WIND AMENDMENTS AND ANOTHER LOOK AT SEA HEIGHTS.


PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
NE WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE
GULF STREAM FOR THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THESE AREAS. NE WINDS ARE FORECAST
10-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT AND 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
SRN WATERS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCEC GOING FOR THE
SRN WATERS INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT IN GULF STREAM.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WITH STRONGER WINDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. BORDERLINE
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS SOUTH FROM SEBASTIAN INLET AWAY FROM THE COAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE 16-23 KTS HERE
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AREAWIDE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BECOMING 10-15 KTS BY DAYBREAK SAT
MORNING. WIND DIRECTION FRI EVENING WILL BACK TO N/NNW. SEAS 2-4 FT
DURING THE DAY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT GULF
STREAM/OFFSHORE SOUTH OF HERE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX A BIT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH N/NW WIND SPEEDS 10-15
KTS NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 15 KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS INITIALLY 3-5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DEEPENING ONSHORE
FLOW BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT POSSIBLY
BUILDING MON OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 37-40 PCT ACROSS LAKE COUNTY TODAY WITH
NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. NO HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED. FRI-SUN...MIN
RHS WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  58  79  60 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  81  60  82  60 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  79  65  81  64 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  81  68  82  66 /  10  10  20  10
LEE  80  58  82  59 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  80  59  82  59 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  82  61  82  62 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  81  69  81  66 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMFL 231221
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
821 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANT SHRAS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE VCSH REGIME
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ENHANCING
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY ACROSS KFLL AND SOUTHWARD. MAINLY
VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MVFR THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING WITH SHRAS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
NAPLES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PALM
BEACH AND NORTHEAST BROWARD COUNTY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

TODAY...A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THUS A SHARP POP GRADIENT EXISTS AS WELL. POP FORECAST RANGES
FROM NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEAR 0 PERCENT
ACROSS GLADES COUNTY. THE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEST PALM BEACH
TO NEAR NAPLES WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVERLAYS DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL WILL PROMOTE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO LIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
THESE INGREDIENTS COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP FOR BROWARD
OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FALLING
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS UNDER TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 80 TO THE LOW 80S DUE TO COVER AND
RAIN.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAS
WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. DUE TO THE
GFS DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT SHUNTS THE
DEEP MOISTURE TO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE ECMWF SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG THE EAST COAST MAINLY FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE REGION...WITH
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE METRO AREAS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN SOUTH OF THE HIGH...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.


MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY TO 20-25 KNOTS BY TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A NON TROPICAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  72  81  69 /  50  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  73 /  80  60  60  30
MIAMI            82  73  82  71 /  90  70  70  30
NAPLES           84  69  82  66 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KKEY 231205
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 24/12Z...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN WET NEAR BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR LIKELY...AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CONDITIONS. THEREAFTER EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY CLOSE IN ON THE
KEYS WITH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING THROUGH THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST AT THE SURFACE AND INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS AT
1K FEET...HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BWC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 230853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
453 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PRESSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BATTLING AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DESCRIBES THE DRY AND
SUBSIDENT AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE WAVE...WHILE
MOIST...ACCELERATING...AND DIFFLUENT AIR FANS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ROUNDING THE APEX
OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL PATTERN IS JUST AS
COMPLEX...NORTHEASTERLIES AND UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS HAVE INVADED PAST
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...NORTH OF A WARM- FRONTISH AXIS LYING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. IN BETWEEN THE BASEMENT AND ATTIC...THE RESIDUAL
VORTICITY OF TD 9 IS STRETCHING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...WELL DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM CIMSS. THE RADAR DEPICTION
HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST 18 HOURS...CONVECTION ACROSS THE
DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH STRATIFORM EFFLUENT WRINGING-OUT
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. TEMPERATURE ARE IN THE MID 70S...WHILE
TROPICAL DEWPOINTS HOVER IN THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS WILL LIKELY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE LOW-MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT...CONSOLIDATING AS IT NEARS THE KEYS ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST
RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE TODAY...THEN SLOWLY TRAIL OFF TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY AS THE CONFLUENT ZONE SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THE FLUSHING NORTHEASTERLIES WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN
INTENSE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN
GULF. THE NORTHEASTERLIES MAY FIRST BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING NON- TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...BUT WILL TRANSITION TO AIR OF MORE CONTINENTAL ORIGIN BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BECOME CLEARER...RAIN
CHANCES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY...AND HUMIDITY WILL DROP WITHIN
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHEAST BREEZES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL ECHO SATURDAY`S SENTIMENTS. THE CONTINENTAL HIGH
PRESSURE CELL WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE
EAST...HERALDING MARITIME MODIFICATION WHICH WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...A DEVELOPING NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVES
SOUTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LOCAL BREEZES WILL FLUCTUATE IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED TODAY. NORTH
TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL BECOME FRESH TO STRONG OVER MOST OF THE
AREA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BREEZES WILL REMAIN FRESH OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...AND FRESH OUT OF THE
EAST ON MONDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...A WET WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS. PERIODS OF
MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY
AT NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY AT KEY WEST...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS AT
MARATHON...WITH A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  74  84  75 / 90 80 70 50
MARATHON  81  74  84  75 / 90 80 70 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ033-034-
     055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 230843
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
443 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
NAPLES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PALM
BEACH AND NORTHEAST BROWARD COUNTY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

TODAY...A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THUS A SHARP POP GRADIENT EXISTS AS WELL. POP FORECAST RANGES
FROM NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEAR 0 PERCENT
ACROSS GLADES COUNTY. THE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEST PALM BEACH
TO NEAR NAPLES WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVERLAYS DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL WILL PROMOTE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO LIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
THESE INGREDIENTS COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP FOR BROWARD
OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FALLING
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS UNDER TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 80 TO THE LOW 80S DUE TO COVER AND
RAIN.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAS
WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. DUE TO THE
GFS DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT SHUNTS THE
DEEP MOISTURE TO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE ECMWF SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG THE EAST COAST MAINLY FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE REGION...WITH
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE METRO AREAS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN SOUTH OF THE HIGH...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMETIME TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, THIS WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER TO KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL THE
SITES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE KPBI AND KAPF, WHERE THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS, OR PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT PASSES, WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. BY MID-DAY, THEY
WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 12 KTS, WITH THE DIRECTION PENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY TO 20-25 KNOTS BY TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A NON TROPICAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  72  81  69 /  30  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  73 /  80  60  60  30
MIAMI            82  73  82  71 /  90  70  70  30
NAPLES           84  69  82  66 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KTBW 230735
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS S FL TODAY PERHAPS JUST S OF I-75. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS S FL
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AND ASSOC MOISTURE POOL WILL
BE KEY AS A VIGOROUS S/WV MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OF FRIDAY
PROVIDING LARGE SCALE LIFT. MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN TOO DRY FOR
CONVECTION...HOWEVER FAR SRN ZONES MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FRONT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO SEE SOME PRECIP. GFS...CANADIAN...NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW FRONTAL WAVES MOVING NE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT MODELS ARE NOT IN ANY AGREEMENT WRT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THESE WAVES. BECAUSE OF THIS...EACH MODEL HAS THE
FRONT AND DEEPER MOISTURE IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT LOCATION DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE WAVES ARE LOCATED IN THE MODEL RUN. NAM IS AGAIN MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AS IT SHOWS A WAVE ACROSS THE SE GULF ON
FRI WHILE GFS IS MUCH DRIER AS S FL SHOWN TO BE ON BACKSIDE OF ONE
OF THESE WAVES WHICH STRENGTHENS INTO A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
THIS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN POPS BETWEEN THE TWO
MOS PRODUCTS WITH GFS SHOWING VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP WHILE NAM
IS IN LIKELY RANGE IN FMY AREA. WILL COMPROMISE A BIT BETWEEN THESE
SOLNS BUT LEAN MORE ON DRY SIDE GIVEN STRONGER MODEL CONSENSUS POINT
THAT DIRECTION (20-30% FAR SRN 5 COS). INTERESTINGLY...THESE
LOWS/FRONTAL WAVES ARE DEPICTED IN MORE IMPRESSIVE FASHION THAN TD9
WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AS IT SLIDES
MORE ESE INTO THE CARRIBEAN. EXPECT STRONG N/S TEMP GRADIENT TONIGHT
AS NRN AREAS DROP INTO THE UPR 40S WITH HELP OF COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIR IN PLACE BUT SRN COS REMAIN IN THE 60S CLOSER TO THE
STALLED BOUNDARY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEAR CLIMO WITH 80S
MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...MARGINAL SCA IS LIKELY OCCURRING ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO OBS IN RIGHT LOCATION TO CONFIRM.
EXPECT WINDS TO DROP BELOW SCA LATER THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE NEAR
SCA LEVELS AGAIN OFFSHORE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A NOCTURNAL SURGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS SRN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIRMASS ON TAP NEXT FEW DAYS...ESP IN NRN
COS. RH VALUES NEAR RF THRESHOLDS...BUT NEITHER WINDS NOR ERC
VALUES SUPPORT RED FLAG ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM(FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
PROGRESSIVE U/L PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH A S/W DISTURBANCE MOVING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A STRONG U/L
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE U/L RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA SUNDAY WITH DRY STABLE AIR
OVER THE REGION...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT NIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE CENTER OF THE U/L RIDGE WILL SLIDE
EAST OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING AS A BROAD U/L
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY WILL
CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MID WEEK.  ON
WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ALOFT AHEAD OF THE U/L
TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  62  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  85  67  86  63 /  20  10  30  10
GIF  81  61  82  60 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  86  62  83  63 /   0   0  10   0
BKV  82  51  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  83  68  82  68 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GITTINGER
LONG TERM...OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KMLB 230731
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A MID LVL S/W TROUGH ACROSS THE SE GULF MEXICO WILL MOVE
TOWARD S FL THIS AFTERNOON AND DAMPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE BAHAMAS
LATER TONIGHT. A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER
INTO S FL TODAY. LOW LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE NE WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS LINGERING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE SRN
TREASURE COAST INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE TRIMMED POPS TO ONLY
INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY NE FLOW
NEAR 15 KNOTS AND MOISTURE LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONTAL SFC FRONT
POTENTIALLY ADEQUATE FOR SOME ATLC SHOWERS TO MOVE ONSHORE. CIRRUS
HAS MOVED BACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT SE ONCE AGAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD LATER TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S N CSTL TO LWR-MID 80S
OVER THE SRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...00Z GFS FCSTS WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT S OF THE
KEYS NEAR THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NE LOW LVL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLC INTO MARTIN COUNTY AND IT LOOKS LIKE
MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
MAINLY SOUTH OF ST LUCIE INLET. WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA DRY WITH
LOWER MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SE STATES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE  MID TO UPPER 50S NRN INTERIOR TO MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE
SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THIS 24 HOUR
PERIOD. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA OVERTOP AN OLD QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP HERE DURING THE DAY AND PROCEED ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS LATE IN THE PERIOD WHILE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. MODELS
CONTINUE TO FORECAST DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
COVERAGE WARNING AREA...BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 PERCENT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH 20 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY AS FAR NORTH AS EXTREME SOUTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY...INDIAN RIVER AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES. HIGHS NEAR 80 DEGREES
TO LOWER 80S. LOWS MIDDLE/UPPER 50S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH
60S ELSEWHERE...HIGHEST VALUES REMAINING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...AS THE LATEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GOMEX. LIGHT EARLY
MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME NNE/NE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS 8-13
MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THE SPACE/TREASURE
COASTS. UNTIL MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT THERE COULD BE A LIGHT
SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST...BUT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY ELSEWHERE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AREAWIDE.
LOWS IN THE 50S OVER THE INTERIOR WITH MAINLY LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...DEEP LAYER RIDGING MOVES FROM THE GOMEX TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE DEVELOPS SUN WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW DEEPENING INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM THE
MARINE INFLUENCE MAY ENTER THE PICTURE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE-WED.
GREATEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WOULD BE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER BY AROUND
MID-WEEK WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTING A LOW OVER THE GULF WITH
DEEP MOISTURE BRINGING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE ADDED CHANCE
POPS TO THIS DAY BUT WILL WAIT FOR FURTHER MODEL CONSISTENCY TO SEE
IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF
CLIMO FOR THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. VCSH KSUA VCNTY TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING
ONSHORE NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS AT 12-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ACROSS THE SRN WATERS WILL BUILD SEAS TO 4 TO 6 FT IN THE
GULF STREAM FOR THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY. WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR THESE AREAS. NE WINDS ARE FORECAST
10-15 KNOTS ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT AND 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE
SRN WATERS WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP SCEC GOING FOR THE
SRN WATERS INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 5-6 FT IN GULF STREAM.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
WITH STRONGER WINDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. BORDERLINE
SCEC/SCA CONDITIONS SOUTH FROM SEBASTIAN INLET AWAY FROM THE COAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRI AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE 16-23 KTS HERE
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES NORTHWARD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AREAWIDE IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT BECOMING 10-15 KTS BY DAYBREAK SAT
MORNING. WIND DIRECTION FRI EVENING WILL BACK TO N/NNW. SEAS 2-4 FT
DURING THE DAY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...BUILDING TO 4-6 FT GULF
STREAM/OFFSHORE SOUTH OF HERE.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX A BIT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WITH N/NW WIND SPEEDS 10-15
KTS NEAR SHORE AND AROUND 15 KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS INITIALLY 3-5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SUN-MON...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH DEEPENING ONSHORE
FLOW BOTH DAYS. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-3 FT POSSIBLY
BUILDING MON OVERNIGHT TO 3-5 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RHS WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 37-40 PCT ACROSS LAKE COUNTY TODAY WITH
NE WINDS OF 10-15 MPH. NO HEADLINES WILL BE REQUIRED. FRI-SUN...MIN
RHS WILL DROP TO AROUND 40 PCT OVER THE NRN INTERIOR FOR 1-3 HOURS
EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  78  58  79  60 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  81  60  82  60 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  79  65  81  64 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  81  68  82  66 /  10  10  20  10
LEE  80  58  82  59 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  80  59  82  59 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  82  61  82  62 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  81  69  81  66 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KTAE 230653
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
253 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are on tap for today as
the region remains situated between high pressure to the north, a
nor`easter off the New England coast, and lower pressure over the
southern Gulf and northwestern Caribbean.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A northern stream shortwave currently over the Northern Plains
will dive into and through the Southeast Friday through Saturday.
With a large pool of dry air sprawling across the eastern third of
the country through the central Gulf, and a very progressive
wave, there won`t be nearly enough return flow to supply any
deep layer moisture to the system as it moves into our region.
Further, low-level flow will remain northerly around high pressure
which will hardly be affected by the passing shortwave. In short,
Friday and Saturday will remain dry with highs near seasonal
averages, and lows around 10 degrees below average.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]

VFR conditions and light northeasterly winds will prevail through
the forecast period.

&&

.Marine...

Cautionary level winds will prevail through today, before a
gradual weakening through the weekend as the calm center of high
pressure moves nearer. Winds will veer southeasterly and increase
once again early next week. No rain is expected through the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Humidity values will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s today and
Friday across the area. However, with light winds, and ERC values
forecast to remain below 37, no Red Flag conditions are expected at
this time.

&&

.Hydrology...

Dry conditions will continue through at least mid-week next week,
with no hydrological issue to report.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  44  79  45  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   77  53  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        74  46  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        75  45  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  44  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    79  45  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  75  53  77  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN







000
FXUS62 KJAX 230619
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
219 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. NE FLOW
WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE IN
STORE TNGT WITH LOWS OF 45-50 INLAND WITH LOWER/MID 50S COAST.
SLIGHTLY MILDER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS GULF MOISTURE MOVES OVER SOUTHERN
FL. WITH THIS PATTERN...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUNDAY THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT...AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY...BEGINNING A PERIOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE CHANCE FOR COASTAL SHOWERS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH MID MORNING WILL BECOME NE 7-11 KT THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NE WIND SURGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND WILL LOWER THE CAUTION
FOR ALL THE WATERS. WINDS UNDER CAUTION LEVELS WILL PREVAIL
FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH NE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY
BRIEFLY BECOMING OFFSHORE SUNDAY...THEN E/SE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  54  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  76  48  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  76  57  78  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  78  47  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  79  49  80  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KTBW 230536 AAB
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
136 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...A WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF A PBI TO APF LINE WILL
STALL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. SHALLOW FRONTAL LAYER AND
HIGH MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO ON AND
OFF MVFR CIGS ACROSS FMY/RSW SITES. THIS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE IMPROVING LATER IN THE MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL GIVEN DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS
CEN FL IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  84  63  82  62 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  86  70  83  65 /   0  20  40  20
GIF  82  61  83  60 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  86  65  82  65 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  83  53  82  57 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  82  68  80  64 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...88/GITTINGER






000
FXUS62 KMFL 230529
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
129 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMETIME TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, THIS WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER TO KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL THE
SITES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE KPBI AND KAPF, WHERE THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS, OR PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT PASSES, WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. BY MID-DAY, THEY
WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 12 KTS, WITH THE DIRECTION PENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHIELD HAS INVADED AREAS SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT AN EVEN TIGHTER POP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF. THIS NON-TROPICAL LOW WILL
MOVE ENE TOWARDS THE FL STRAITS AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO SOUTH FL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY NEAR THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGH
FRIDAY. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  73  82  72 /  30  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  76  82  75 /  70  60  70  50
MIAMI            83  74  82  73 /  80  70  80  50
NAPLES           86  70  84  69 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KKEY 230232
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1032 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING REVEALS A RATHER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC
SITUATION ACROSS THE REGION...INVOLVING AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC JET
STREAK...A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT...AN INCIPIENT WAVE CYCLONE...AND
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE. SUSTAINED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A VARIETY OF FORCING MECHANISMS...INCLUDING JET STREAK
CIRCULATION...DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC
LIFT...AND LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS KEPT THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS NEARLY SATURATED FOR THE BETTER PART
OF TWO DAYS...DESPITE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.
RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING FOR MORE HOURS THAN NOT IN MOST KEYS ISLAND
COMMUNITIES SINCE MIDDAY. RECENT DOPPLER RADAR BASE REFLECTIVITY DATA
SHOW AN EXPANDING AREA OF MODERATE RAIN OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...JUST NORTH OF AN ACTIVE BAND OF DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION OFF
THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING
SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM EAST TO WEST FROM NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING
BAROCLINIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BE EMERGING NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...OUT OF THE BROADER TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE REGION FROM WHICH
TINY TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS BORN AND ALSO LIKELY WILL DIE.
ISALLOBARIC FORCING IS BEGINNING TO PLAY HAVOC WITH LOCAL SURFACE
WINDS...AS EXPECTED. MUCH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE NOW OBSERVED OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA.

EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER AND MID-
TROPOSPHERIC WIND SPEEDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW THAT WHICH WOULD BE
REQUIRED FOR ANY STORM ORGANIZATION. NORTHEAST TO EAST SURFACE WINDS
WILL UNDERGO FITS AND STARTS AS A CLOSED LOW EVOLVES OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AIR TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL STAY PINNED NEAR
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. THE LOCAL DIGITAL FORECAST
DATABASE AND MOST OF THE DERIVED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. NOTE
INCREASES IN FORECAST WIND SPEEDS FOR TONIGHT-SATURDAY PERIODS.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...
AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA
ON THURSDAY. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MOVES
SOUTHWARD. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
LOCAL BREEZES WILL FLUCTUATE IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED OVERNIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL BECOME FRESH TO
STRONG OVER MOST OF THE AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
BREEZES WILL REMAIN FRESH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...AND FRESH OUT OF THE EAST ON MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN...DRIZZLE...AND OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND
PROLONGED AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT TIMING WILL OF THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE DIFFICULT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EASTERLY...BUT
SWIRLY AT TIMES AND MAY BE BRIEFLY GUSTY AT ANY TIME EVEN OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 230136
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Despite the continuation of the cool air advection, the projected
positioning of the Sfc ridge overnight no longer appears ideal
for radiational cooling. Therefore, split the difference on
overnight low temps with the previous package and the latest local CAM
run which essentially raises minimum temps about 3-4 degrees
across the board. Tomorrow night, on the other hand, should be more
favorable for radiational cooling with the ridge building in
closer to overhead.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] More of the same with the Taf sites, as VFR
conditions with clear skies and light winds will continue to
persist for at least the next 24 hrs at all of the terminals.

&&

.Prev Discussion [334 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
As the large upper low lifts northeastward, it will be replaced by a
short wave trough moving through the Great Plains. This trough axis
will then sweep east of the area Friday night. The surface high
centered over the Great Lakes will slide steadily southward to a
position over the Northwest Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. This pattern
will maintain the dry weather we have enjoyed for a week now. We
will see cooler than normal conditions through most of this period,
although Friday`s highs will be pretty close to seasonal averages.
Thursday`s highs will run about 4 degrees below normal with mid 70s
north to upper 70s south. Low temps will be back down into the lower
40s for most inland areas Thursday night and modify slightly to the
mid to upper 40s for Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will persist across the waters through much of the
period. Wind speeds will increase to cautionary levels tonight, and
may briefly approach advisory levels, before decreasing below
headline criteria on Thursday. Moderate offshore flow will then
persist into the weekend with winds weakening on Sunday and veering
to the east by Monday.


.Fire Weather...
Very dry air will continue to filter into the region from a ridge of
high pressure off to our northwest. Although conditions are expected
to remain below Red Flag levels at this time, slightly longer
durations of low relative humidities and slightly higher ERC values
could put a small portion of the Florida Big Bend in Red Flag
conditions. Therefore, the situation will be monitored closely over
the next few days.


.Hydrology...
There are no hydrologic concerns across the region since it hasn`t
rained in a week and no rain is expected for about another week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  77  42  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   52  76  52  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        43  74  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        43  75  43  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  75  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  78  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  76  51  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WOOL/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL







000
FXUS62 KTAE 230136
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
936 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Despite the continuation of the cool air advection, the projected
positioning of the Sfc ridge overnight no longer appears ideal
for radiational cooling. Therefore, split the difference on
overnight low temps with the previous package and the latest local CAM
run which essentially raises minimum temps about 3-4 degrees
across the board. Tomorrow night, on the other hand, should be more
favorable for radiational cooling with the ridge building in
closer to overhead.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] More of the same with the Taf sites, as VFR
conditions with clear skies and light winds will continue to
persist for at least the next 24 hrs at all of the terminals.

&&

.Prev Discussion [334 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
As the large upper low lifts northeastward, it will be replaced by a
short wave trough moving through the Great Plains. This trough axis
will then sweep east of the area Friday night. The surface high
centered over the Great Lakes will slide steadily southward to a
position over the Northwest Gulf Coast by 12Z Saturday. This pattern
will maintain the dry weather we have enjoyed for a week now. We
will see cooler than normal conditions through most of this period,
although Friday`s highs will be pretty close to seasonal averages.
Thursday`s highs will run about 4 degrees below normal with mid 70s
north to upper 70s south. Low temps will be back down into the lower
40s for most inland areas Thursday night and modify slightly to the
mid to upper 40s for Friday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.


.Marine...
Offshore flow will persist across the waters through much of the
period. Wind speeds will increase to cautionary levels tonight, and
may briefly approach advisory levels, before decreasing below
headline criteria on Thursday. Moderate offshore flow will then
persist into the weekend with winds weakening on Sunday and veering
to the east by Monday.


.Fire Weather...
Very dry air will continue to filter into the region from a ridge of
high pressure off to our northwest. Although conditions are expected
to remain below Red Flag levels at this time, slightly longer
durations of low relative humidities and slightly higher ERC values
could put a small portion of the Florida Big Bend in Red Flag
conditions. Therefore, the situation will be monitored closely over
the next few days.


.Hydrology...
There are no hydrologic concerns across the region since it hasn`t
rained in a week and no rain is expected for about another week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  77  42  80  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   52  76  52  78  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        43  74  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        43  75  43  79  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  75  43  78  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    46  78  43  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  52  76  51  77  51 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WOOL/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL







000
FXUS62 KJAX 230105
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
905 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE E COAST WITH DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR OVER OUR FORECAST REGION. SFC HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN COOL AIR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL STEADILY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
INLAND TO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FCST EXCEPT TO TWEAK TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR
THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND NNE-NE WINDS
THU AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NNE WINDS MAY STILL BE AROUND 15-20 KT OFFSHORE TONIGHT SO
WILL CONTINUE SCEC HEADLINE THERE. THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
AS WELL AS COASTAL OBS SHOW WINDS MORE AROUND THE 10-15 KT OR 15 KT
RANGE SO WILL REMOVE SCEC HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THURSDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
ELEVATED SURF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  52  71  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  49  75  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  74  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  47  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  51  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/WALSH






000
FXUS62 KJAX 230105
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
905 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE E COAST WITH DRY
SUBSIDENT AIR OVER OUR FORECAST REGION. SFC HIGH WELL N OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN COOL AIR. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL STEADILY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S
INLAND TO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FCST EXCEPT TO TWEAK TEMP AND DEWPOINT TRENDS FOR
THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT AND NNE-NE WINDS
THU AROUND 5 TO 10 KT.

&&

.MARINE...NNE WINDS MAY STILL BE AROUND 15-20 KT OFFSHORE TONIGHT SO
WILL CONTINUE SCEC HEADLINE THERE. THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
AS WELL AS COASTAL OBS SHOW WINDS MORE AROUND THE 10-15 KT OR 15 KT
RANGE SO WILL REMOVE SCEC HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THURSDAY DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND
ELEVATED SURF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  73  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  52  71  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  49  75  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  58  74  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  47  77  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  51  79  49  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/WALSH






000
FXUS62 KTBW 230059
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE TRAILING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DOMINATED THE
WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS OVER LEE COUNTY WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z SOUNDING THIS
EVENING CAME IN AT 0.81 INCHES PWAT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO A HALF
INCH LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE ONLY EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WHICH WILL FURTHER
THIN OUT ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARD CUBA WILL PRODUCE STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ONLY EXPECTED CLOUDS WILL BE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF FLORIDA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
WILL LINGER OVER AREAS FROM THE YUCATAN TO EASTERN CUBA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
PROMPTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  84  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  68  86  70  83 /  30   0  20  40
GIF  63  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  65  86  65  82 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  52  83  53  82 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  69  82  68  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 230059
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE TRAILING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE DOMINATED THE
WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
COUPLE OF STRAY SHOWERS OVER LEE COUNTY WHICH HAVE NOW DISSIPATED.
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z SOUNDING THIS
EVENING CAME IN AT 0.81 INCHES PWAT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO A HALF
INCH LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE ONLY EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK WHICH WILL FURTHER
THIN OUT ON THURSDAY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 MOVING EASTWARD
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARD CUBA WILL PRODUCE STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE ONLY EXPECTED CLOUDS WILL BE A HIGH CIRRUS DECK...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN OUT ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BECOMING A LITTLE STRONGER
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NATIONS MID SECTION WILL BUILD SOUTH OVER
THE NORTH HALF OF FLORIDA WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
WILL LINGER OVER AREAS FROM THE YUCATAN TO EASTERN CUBA. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
PROMPTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  84  63  82 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  68  86  70  83 /  30   0  20  40
GIF  63  82  61  83 /   0   0  10  10
SRQ  65  86  65  82 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  52  83  53  82 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  69  82  68  80 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...74/WYNN
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KMLB 230018
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE
INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALSO WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THAT PUSHED WEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVER LAND AREAS PAST
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
TREASURE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES
OVER THIS REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED FROM THE ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND MID/UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT UP
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST








000
FXUS62 KMLB 230018
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
818 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE
INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT AND ALSO WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THAT PUSHED WEST THROUGH THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY OVER LAND AREAS PAST
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER MAY STILL SEE A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
TREASURE COAST LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES
OVER THIS REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN THE GREATEST
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED FROM THE ORLANDO AREA NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND MID/UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT UP
TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
OVER THE GULF STREAM LATER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THIS PORTION OF THE WATERS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/PENDERGRAST








000
FXUS62 KMFL 222355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHIELD HAS INVADED AREAS SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT AN EVEN TIGHTER POP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF. THIS NON-TROPICAL LOW WILL
MOVE ENE TOWARDS THE FL STRAITS AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO SOUTH FL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY NEAR THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGH
FRIDAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT PREVAIL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITY AND CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER A BIT ON THU...BUT
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ABOVE IFR. SO ADDED PREVAILING MVFR VIS/CIGS
FOR THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS FOR THU ALONG WITH VCTS.
BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER TSRA, BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO
TIME SO WAS NOT ADDED. FOR KPBI AND KAPF, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
TO MOVE IN SO MAINTAINED ONLY VCSH THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT THEN PREVAIL NORTHEAST AT NEAR 10 KT ON THU. THX CWSU
MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
A FAIRLY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE KEPT VCSH MENTION OUT FOR
KPBI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  82  73  82 /  40  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  76  82 /  60  70  60  70
MIAMI            72  83  74  82 /  70  80  70  80
NAPLES           70  86  70  84 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 222355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHIELD HAS INVADED AREAS SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT AN EVEN TIGHTER POP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF. THIS NON-TROPICAL LOW WILL
MOVE ENE TOWARDS THE FL STRAITS AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO SOUTH FL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY NEAR THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGH
FRIDAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT PREVAIL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITY AND CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER A BIT ON THU...BUT
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ABOVE IFR. SO ADDED PREVAILING MVFR VIS/CIGS
FOR THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS FOR THU ALONG WITH VCTS.
BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER TSRA, BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO
TIME SO WAS NOT ADDED. FOR KPBI AND KAPF, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
TO MOVE IN SO MAINTAINED ONLY VCSH THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT THEN PREVAIL NORTHEAST AT NEAR 10 KT ON THU. THX CWSU
MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
A FAIRLY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE KEPT VCSH MENTION OUT FOR
KPBI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  82  73  82 /  40  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  76  82 /  60  70  60  70
MIAMI            72  83  74  82 /  70  80  70  80
NAPLES           70  86  70  84 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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