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000
FXUS62 KTAE 041528
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1128 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Broad troughing continues to cover the eastern half of the country
this morning, with a weak surface front (marked by a Td gradient)
draped northeast to southwest from Augusta to Mobile. Also, a
strengthening area of low pressure sits off the SC coast.
Satellite derived PWATs depict just over 1" behind the frontal
boundary that cuts off our SE Alabama and SW Georgia counties from
the rest. Ahead of the boundary, PWATs steadily increase to around
2" across the southeast Big Bend, with 1.6" sampled from the
morning sounding near Tallahassee. W/E oriented mesoscale
boundaries seen clearly on radar this morning allowed for some
slow moving storms to dump very heavy rain over Taylor and parts
of Dixie county. Just inland of Keaton Beach, nearly 6 inches of
rain fell. These storms have since diminished and any meaningful
convection will likely form along the seabreeze fronts beginning
early this afternoon. Some isolated pulse severe storms will be
possible across the Big Bend this afternoon where 3-4k J/kg SBCAPE
align with moderately high d-ThetaE values. This is further
corroborated by CAM modeled updrafts around 15m/s suggesting a
low-end severe threat within isolated storms.

Highs today will reach the middle to upper 90s, except possibly
across the southeast Big Bend where there is significant cloud
debris from this mornings storms.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...

VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms today. Storms will be
most likely from ECP to TLH to VLD. Similar to this morning,
patchy MVFR visibilities will be possible near dawn ahead of a
frontal boundary.

&&

.Prev Discussion [423 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
With the region on the western edge of the subtropical ridge for
the short term period, expect a return to the typical summertime
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance
suggests areas across the Florida Big Bend and into South Central
Georgia will be favored for convection on Wednesday. By Thursday,
the leading edge of the next storm system moves into the Mid
South, and with deep layer moisture on the increase across the
western portion of the region, expect greater rain chances in the
western zones Thursday afternoon.

High temperatures throughout the short term period should be in
the mid 90s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Primary focus for the long term period will be the approach of a
frontal system on Friday and Saturday. The main energy with this
system will move quickly through the Tennessee Valley on Friday
and reach the Mid Atlantic Coast by Saturday. A frontal boundary
will stall across the region early in the weekend, suggesting a
couple of high PoP days, especially through Sunday. Model guidance
then diverges on whether some drier air will filter in from the
north (GFS) or the region stays stuck in a wet pattern into the
first of next week (Euro). For now will indicate rain chances at
the end of the period slightly above climatology. With a wet
pattern expected for at least the first half of the long term
period, should see afternoon high temperatures in the lower 90s.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will return to typical summertime levels through
much of this week as high pressure builds back over the marine
area. A weak frontal system will approach the region by the
weekend and may result in a slight increase in winds.


.Fire Weather...
Warm and humid conditions will continue for the next several days
with scattered convection, mainly in the afternoon and early
evening.


.Hydrology...
The Steinhatchee River has crested and is now starting to slowly
fall. It is expected that the river will remain above flood stage
for at least the next few days, likely dropping below flood stage
on Friday morning.

With mainly scattered afternoon and evening storms the next few
days, do not anticipate any additional river flood concerns,
though areas in the Southeast Florida Big Bend, particularly in
Dixie County, will be especially prone to further areal flooding,
should any storms move over the area during the next couple of
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  76  93  75  92 /  50  10  40  20  40
Panama City   88  78  88  78  88 /  30  20  40  20  40
Dothan        98  75  94  74  93 /  20  10  40  20  50
Albany        96  76  95  74  92 /  20  10  40  20  50
Valdosta      94  76  94  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  40
Cross City    90  76  92  74  91 /  70  20  40  20  40
Apalachicola  90  79  88  77  87 /  30  20  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK through this evening FOR Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



000
FXUS62 KTAE 041528
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1128 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Broad troughing continues to cover the eastern half of the country
this morning, with a weak surface front (marked by a Td gradient)
draped northeast to southwest from Augusta to Mobile. Also, a
strengthening area of low pressure sits off the SC coast.
Satellite derived PWATs depict just over 1" behind the frontal
boundary that cuts off our SE Alabama and SW Georgia counties from
the rest. Ahead of the boundary, PWATs steadily increase to around
2" across the southeast Big Bend, with 1.6" sampled from the
morning sounding near Tallahassee. W/E oriented mesoscale
boundaries seen clearly on radar this morning allowed for some
slow moving storms to dump very heavy rain over Taylor and parts
of Dixie county. Just inland of Keaton Beach, nearly 6 inches of
rain fell. These storms have since diminished and any meaningful
convection will likely form along the seabreeze fronts beginning
early this afternoon. Some isolated pulse severe storms will be
possible across the Big Bend this afternoon where 3-4k J/kg SBCAPE
align with moderately high d-ThetaE values. This is further
corroborated by CAM modeled updrafts around 15m/s suggesting a
low-end severe threat within isolated storms.

Highs today will reach the middle to upper 90s, except possibly
across the southeast Big Bend where there is significant cloud
debris from this mornings storms.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...

VFR will prevail outside of thunderstorms today. Storms will be
most likely from ECP to TLH to VLD. Similar to this morning,
patchy MVFR visibilities will be possible near dawn ahead of a
frontal boundary.

&&

.Prev Discussion [423 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
With the region on the western edge of the subtropical ridge for
the short term period, expect a return to the typical summertime
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance
suggests areas across the Florida Big Bend and into South Central
Georgia will be favored for convection on Wednesday. By Thursday,
the leading edge of the next storm system moves into the Mid
South, and with deep layer moisture on the increase across the
western portion of the region, expect greater rain chances in the
western zones Thursday afternoon.

High temperatures throughout the short term period should be in
the mid 90s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Primary focus for the long term period will be the approach of a
frontal system on Friday and Saturday. The main energy with this
system will move quickly through the Tennessee Valley on Friday
and reach the Mid Atlantic Coast by Saturday. A frontal boundary
will stall across the region early in the weekend, suggesting a
couple of high PoP days, especially through Sunday. Model guidance
then diverges on whether some drier air will filter in from the
north (GFS) or the region stays stuck in a wet pattern into the
first of next week (Euro). For now will indicate rain chances at
the end of the period slightly above climatology. With a wet
pattern expected for at least the first half of the long term
period, should see afternoon high temperatures in the lower 90s.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will return to typical summertime levels through
much of this week as high pressure builds back over the marine
area. A weak frontal system will approach the region by the
weekend and may result in a slight increase in winds.


.Fire Weather...
Warm and humid conditions will continue for the next several days
with scattered convection, mainly in the afternoon and early
evening.


.Hydrology...
The Steinhatchee River has crested and is now starting to slowly
fall. It is expected that the river will remain above flood stage
for at least the next few days, likely dropping below flood stage
on Friday morning.

With mainly scattered afternoon and evening storms the next few
days, do not anticipate any additional river flood concerns,
though areas in the Southeast Florida Big Bend, particularly in
Dixie County, will be especially prone to further areal flooding,
should any storms move over the area during the next couple of
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  76  93  75  92 /  50  10  40  20  40
Panama City   88  78  88  78  88 /  30  20  40  20  40
Dothan        98  75  94  74  93 /  20  10  40  20  50
Albany        96  76  95  74  92 /  20  10  40  20  50
Valdosta      94  76  94  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  40
Cross City    90  76  92  74  91 /  70  20  40  20  40
Apalachicola  90  79  88  77  87 /  30  20  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK through this evening FOR Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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000
FXUS62 KJAX 041505
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1105 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...THERE IS A BIG MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PER GOES SOUNDER AND UPPER AIR SOUNDING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 2.33 TO 2.66" ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO 1.50 TO
2" ACROSS INTERIOR SE GEORGIA. WITH THE POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE SURFACE TROF ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND WILL
BE THE MAIN COVERGING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN. TYPICAL
MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE BIG BEND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO
I-75 CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THEN THE STORMS WILL
TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. ALACHUA COUNTY HAS WET
SOIL CONDITIONS DUE TO A COUPLE SWATHS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF HEAVY
RAIN YESTERDAY. ANY HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS AREA...WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS THAT DON`T DRAIN
WELL. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS TO 45
MPH AND FRQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY TSRA/SHRA OVER GNV. VCTS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY TONIGHT. A RIDGE SLIDES IN AND KEEPS WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTS APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
BRINGS WITH IT A POSSIBLE RETURN TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  75  95  74 /  30  20  40  20
SSI  88  77  90  78 /  40  30  30  20
JAX  90  76  92  74 /  60  30  40  20
SGJ  87  76  91  75 /  80  30  30  20
GNV  87  74  91  73 /  70  30  40  20
OCF  87  74  92  73 /  60  20  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/CORDERO/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KJAX 041505
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1105 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...THERE IS A BIG MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PER GOES SOUNDER AND UPPER AIR SOUNDING. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 2.33 TO 2.66" ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO 1.50 TO
2" ACROSS INTERIOR SE GEORGIA. WITH THE POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG
THE SURFACE TROF ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND WILL
BE THE MAIN COVERGING FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN. TYPICAL
MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE BIG BEND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO
I-75 CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THEN THE STORMS WILL
TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. ALACHUA COUNTY HAS WET
SOIL CONDITIONS DUE TO A COUPLE SWATHS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OF HEAVY
RAIN YESTERDAY. ANY HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS AREA...WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO RUNOFF AND MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS THAT DON`T DRAIN
WELL. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS TO 45
MPH AND FRQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.AVIATION...EARLY TSRA/SHRA OVER GNV. VCTS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WIND WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS BY TONIGHT. A RIDGE SLIDES IN AND KEEPS WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONTS APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
BRINGS WITH IT A POSSIBLE RETURN TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  75  95  74 /  30  20  40  20
SSI  88  77  90  78 /  40  30  30  20
JAX  90  76  92  74 /  60  30  40  20
SGJ  87  76  91  75 /  80  30  30  20
GNV  87  74  91  73 /  70  30  40  20
OCF  87  74  92  73 /  60  20  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/CORDERO/GUILLET



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 041403
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...ANLYS OF SFC METARS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE SFC-1KM RIDGE
AXIS RUNNING WNW FROM ABOUT KSUA TO NORTH OF KOBE TO KTPA SSW-SW
WINDS COVER ALL BUT THE SRN 3 COS...WHERE FLOW IS LIGHT. MORNING
RAOBS INDICATE HIGHER MEAN PWATS LOCALLY...ABOUT 2.0" WITH 1.9" AT
TBW/MFL. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED AT KJAX (2.3") CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING WEAK SFC LOW WHICH HAD BEEN ACROSS NORTH CTRL FL THIS TIME
MONDAY. LOOKING ALOFT...THE FL PENINSULA LIES TO THE EAST OF A H50
COL/DEFORMATION ZONE...WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING WWD ALLOWING MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS TO NUDGE WWD AND INTO THE COAST. N-NNE H25 PATTERN LOOKS
NEUTRAL W/R/T ANY PSBL WEAK CONTRIBUTION TO UVM/FORCING.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...MOS GUIDANCE AND MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT FAVOR
THE NRN CWA FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE MESO MODELS ARE
SOMEWHAT ANEMIC IN OVERALL QPF AND COVERAGE OF HIGHER DBZ CELLS.
WITH THE MID/UPPER PATTERN NEUTRAL TO MARGINALLY NEGATIVE FOR WEAK
FORCING...WOULD EXPECT NEAR TO SLGTLY BELOW NORMAL COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION.  WCSB MAY BE A BIT MORE MORE ACTIVE (AS IT IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY) WITH LESS INITIAL ACTION ALONG ECSB. WE MAY
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL BDRY INTERACTIONS (SEA/LAKE/OUTFLOW)
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO SEE SIG COVERAGE OVER THE ERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA. ALL IN ALL...DON`T SEE MUCH TO ARGUE WITH THE CURRENT
POP DISTRIBUTION OF 30 S-SE/40 N-NW.

&&

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR TS TODAY NORTH OF ISM-TIX...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CURRENT POPS...HAVING TEMPO TS FOR THE NORTH/INTERIOR
AERODROMES MAY TURN OUT TO BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC. TIMING LOOKS OK
WITH ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE AFTN. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND
VIS SAT TRENDS TO SEE IF KEEPING THE TEMPS GROUPS IN FOR THE 18Z
PACKAGE WILL BE WARRANTED.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBS INDICATE S-SW FLOW OF AROUND
10-12KT WITH 1-2FT SEAS NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. OTHER THAN REMOVING SMALL AREA OF 3-4FT SEAS THROUGH MID
MORNING WELL OFFSHORE VOLUSIA...FCST/GRIDS LOOK FINE.

FORECASTS/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...LASCODY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

TONIGHT...SOME EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS OSCEOLA/
SE ORANGE AND NRN BREVARD COUNTIES WITH LATE DAY BDRY INTERACTIONS.
WILL KEEP A LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS SE TWD
THE TREASURE COAST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

WED-THU...ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING IN
COVERAGE WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. HAVE POPS
RANGING AROUND 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND 40-50 PERCENT
INLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT MAY LEAD
TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK W/SW
STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR TO
MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHIFTING FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE HELPS DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC THAT LIFTS N/NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH TRAILING
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.
THIS BOUNDARY AND LINGERING U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COAST WILL
SHIFT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD AND LEAD TO A DEEPER OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. LOW LEVEL W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EACH AFT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFT AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION.
ANY STORMS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT INTERACT WHERE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOW 90S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWERED SHRA/TSRA TO PROB30 GROUPS FOR INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE CHC CATEGORY EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN TO STAY
MAINLY WEST OF TERMINALS FROM KMLB-KSUA AS E COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT PAST 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... MORNING WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL BE AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT SO WILL LOWER SCEC HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT
TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DROP AND AVERAGE 2 FT NEARSHORE TO
3 FT OFFSHORE LATE.

WED-SAT...RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BY MID WEEK BEFORE IT SHIFTS BACK SOUTHWARD FRI-SAT. S/SE WINDS
BECOME S/SW BY LATE WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET. A RELATIVELY
WEAK W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL BE PRESENT EACH AFT WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS POTENTIALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE EACH AFT/EARLY EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  91  74 /  40  20  30  20
MCO  90  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  30
MLB  90  74  89  76 /  30  20  40  20
VRB  89  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  90  75  92  77 /  40  10  40  20
SFB  90  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  30
ORL  90  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  30
FPR  90  72  90  74 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMLB 041403
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...ANLYS OF SFC METARS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS THE SFC-1KM RIDGE
AXIS RUNNING WNW FROM ABOUT KSUA TO NORTH OF KOBE TO KTPA SSW-SW
WINDS COVER ALL BUT THE SRN 3 COS...WHERE FLOW IS LIGHT. MORNING
RAOBS INDICATE HIGHER MEAN PWATS LOCALLY...ABOUT 2.0" WITH 1.9" AT
TBW/MFL. MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED AT KJAX (2.3") CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING WEAK SFC LOW WHICH HAD BEEN ACROSS NORTH CTRL FL THIS TIME
MONDAY. LOOKING ALOFT...THE FL PENINSULA LIES TO THE EAST OF A H50
COL/DEFORMATION ZONE...WHICH HAS BEEN DRIFTING WWD ALLOWING MID LVL
RIDGE AXIS TO NUDGE WWD AND INTO THE COAST. N-NNE H25 PATTERN LOOKS
NEUTRAL W/R/T ANY PSBL WEAK CONTRIBUTION TO UVM/FORCING.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...MOS GUIDANCE AND MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT FAVOR
THE NRN CWA FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE MESO MODELS ARE
SOMEWHAT ANEMIC IN OVERALL QPF AND COVERAGE OF HIGHER DBZ CELLS.
WITH THE MID/UPPER PATTERN NEUTRAL TO MARGINALLY NEGATIVE FOR WEAK
FORCING...WOULD EXPECT NEAR TO SLGTLY BELOW NORMAL COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CONVECTION.  WCSB MAY BE A BIT MORE MORE ACTIVE (AS IT IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY) WITH LESS INITIAL ACTION ALONG ECSB. WE MAY
HAVE TO WAIT FOR ADDITIONAL BDRY INTERACTIONS (SEA/LAKE/OUTFLOW)
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO SEE SIG COVERAGE OVER THE ERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA. ALL IN ALL...DON`T SEE MUCH TO ARGUE WITH THE CURRENT
POP DISTRIBUTION OF 30 S-SE/40 N-NW.

&&

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR TS TODAY NORTH OF ISM-TIX...ALTHOUGH
WITH THE CURRENT POPS...HAVING TEMPO TS FOR THE NORTH/INTERIOR
AERODROMES MAY TURN OUT TO BE A BIT PESSIMISTIC. TIMING LOOKS OK
WITH ACTIVITY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATE AFTN. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND
VIS SAT TRENDS TO SEE IF KEEPING THE TEMPS GROUPS IN FOR THE 18Z
PACKAGE WILL BE WARRANTED.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBS INDICATE S-SW FLOW OF AROUND
10-12KT WITH 1-2FT SEAS NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL AWAY FROM THE
COAST. OTHER THAN REMOVING SMALL AREA OF 3-4FT SEAS THROUGH MID
MORNING WELL OFFSHORE VOLUSIA...FCST/GRIDS LOOK FINE.

FORECASTS/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...LASCODY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

TONIGHT...SOME EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS OSCEOLA/
SE ORANGE AND NRN BREVARD COUNTIES WITH LATE DAY BDRY INTERACTIONS.
WILL KEEP A LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS SE TWD
THE TREASURE COAST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

WED-THU...ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING IN
COVERAGE WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. HAVE POPS
RANGING AROUND 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND 40-50 PERCENT
INLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT MAY LEAD
TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK W/SW
STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR TO
MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHIFTING FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE HELPS DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC THAT LIFTS N/NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH TRAILING
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.
THIS BOUNDARY AND LINGERING U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COAST WILL
SHIFT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD AND LEAD TO A DEEPER OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. LOW LEVEL W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EACH AFT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFT AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION.
ANY STORMS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT INTERACT WHERE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOW 90S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWERED SHRA/TSRA TO PROB30 GROUPS FOR INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE CHC CATEGORY EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN TO STAY
MAINLY WEST OF TERMINALS FROM KMLB-KSUA AS E COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT PAST 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... MORNING WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL BE AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT SO WILL LOWER SCEC HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT
TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DROP AND AVERAGE 2 FT NEARSHORE TO
3 FT OFFSHORE LATE.

WED-SAT...RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BY MID WEEK BEFORE IT SHIFTS BACK SOUTHWARD FRI-SAT. S/SE WINDS
BECOME S/SW BY LATE WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET. A RELATIVELY
WEAK W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL BE PRESENT EACH AFT WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS POTENTIALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE EACH AFT/EARLY EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  91  74 /  40  20  30  20
MCO  90  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  30
MLB  90  74  89  76 /  30  20  40  20
VRB  89  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  90  75  92  77 /  40  10  40  20
SFB  90  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  30
ORL  90  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  30
FPR  90  72  90  74 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 041401
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1000 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM DEPICT THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MIDDLE AND UPPER
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OLD MEXICO...SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE EASTERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A FAINT MID-LEVEL TROUGH FEATURE
EVIDENT IN THE 12Z SOUNDING...AROUND 500 MB.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM...DETAIL WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
FROM NEAR 30 NORTH 70 WEST EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS JUST OFF OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THERE IS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH POSITIONED
NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING IN KEY
WEST ILLUSTRATED GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TYPICALLY
MOIST FLOW FROM JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 500 MB...WITH PWAT
AT 1.87 INCHES.

.FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...LIKE YESTERDAY...WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL
RIDGING IS LIKELY TO BE OVERCOME BY STRONG HEATING...BACKING WINDS
THRU 500 MB THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE ISLANDS. THE FORECAST OF 0-6 KM
SUPPORTS WELL DEVELOPED CLOUDLINES NEAR THE KEYS...FAVORING MORE
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. IN ADDITION...PENINSULAR SEABREEZE
CONVECTION OVER MIAMI DADE WOULD SEEP DOWN INTO FLORIDA BAY AND PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. MAY MAKE A LAST MINUTE UPDATE TO RAISE UP
RAIN CHANCES FROM LOW TO HI CHANCE...WITH POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN IN CLOUD LINE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE KEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS RIDGE THEN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH FROM ABOUT 18Z TO
AROUND 00Z. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1894...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 68 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON AUGUST 4TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 121 YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 68 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE......BS
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 041401
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1000 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM DEPICT THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MIDDLE AND UPPER
ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OLD MEXICO...SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE EASTERN MOST PERIPHERY OF THE
ANTICYCLONE. THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A FAINT MID-LEVEL TROUGH FEATURE
EVIDENT IN THE 12Z SOUNDING...AROUND 500 MB.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM...DETAIL WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
FROM NEAR 30 NORTH 70 WEST EXTENDING WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS JUST OFF OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THERE IS A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH POSITIONED
NORTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING IN KEY
WEST ILLUSTRATED GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TYPICALLY
MOIST FLOW FROM JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 500 MB...WITH PWAT
AT 1.87 INCHES.

.FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE DAY...LIKE YESTERDAY...WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL
RIDGING IS LIKELY TO BE OVERCOME BY STRONG HEATING...BACKING WINDS
THRU 500 MB THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE ISLANDS. THE FORECAST OF 0-6 KM
SUPPORTS WELL DEVELOPED CLOUDLINES NEAR THE KEYS...FAVORING MORE
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. IN ADDITION...PENINSULAR SEABREEZE
CONVECTION OVER MIAMI DADE WOULD SEEP DOWN INTO FLORIDA BAY AND PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. MAY MAKE A LAST MINUTE UPDATE TO RAISE UP
RAIN CHANCES FROM LOW TO HI CHANCE...WITH POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN IN CLOUD LINE SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
THE KEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS RIDGE THEN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH FROM ABOUT 18Z TO
AROUND 00Z. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
NEAR 10 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1894...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 68 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON AUGUST 4TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 121 YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS LOW
TEMPERATURE OF 68 DEGREES IS TIED AS THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER
RECORDED IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF AUGUST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE......BS
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 041355
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
955 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HOURS MAKES...

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
LEVY COUNTY SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO ABOUT 60
MILES WEST OF CLEARWATER. MOVEMENT WAS EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST IN
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WAKE.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
LEVY COUNTY SOUTH TO PINELLAS AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED...DUE TO THE EXTREMELY
SATURATED GROUND AND STANDING WATER IN MANY LOCATIONS...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THE WATCH AREA COULD EXACERBATE
FLOODING.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER SATURATED WITH 12Z TBW SOUNDING
PCPW 1.93 INCHES. THIS STILL SUPPORTS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING ALOFT BY LATE TODAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE IN FLOOD DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MAJOR RIVER
FLOODING BEING OBSERVED ON THE ANCLOTE RIVER. IN GENERAL...SLIGHT
RISES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ON MOST RIVERS BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO
RECEDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC RIVER FORECASTS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 041355
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
955 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

...WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HOURS MAKES...

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
LEVY COUNTY SOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO ABOUT 60
MILES WEST OF CLEARWATER. MOVEMENT WAS EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15
MPH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA FROM THE EAST IN
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WAKE.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES
PUSHING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
LEVY COUNTY SOUTH TO PINELLAS AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED...DUE TO THE EXTREMELY
SATURATED GROUND AND STANDING WATER IN MANY LOCATIONS...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP IN THE WATCH AREA COULD EXACERBATE
FLOODING.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RATHER SATURATED WITH 12Z TBW SOUNDING
PCPW 1.93 INCHES. THIS STILL SUPPORTS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...SHOULD SEE SOME DRYING ALOFT BY LATE TODAY.

.HYDROLOGY...
NUMEROUS RIVERS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA ARE IN FLOOD DUE TO
THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH MAJOR RIVER
FLOODING BEING OBSERVED ON THE ANCLOTE RIVER. IN GENERAL...SLIGHT
RISES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ON MOST RIVERS BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO
RECEDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEE THE LATEST RIVER FLOOD
STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC RIVER FORECASTS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 041314
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
914 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT THINKING WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
CONFIRMING A DEEPER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED A TAD WITH THE PWAT
BACK UP TO JUST UNDER 2" BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE
MEAGER AT LESS THAN 6C/KM. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL OVERCOME
SOME OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY BUT MOST STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE INTERIOR BUT COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SUBURBS UPON
INITIALIZATION.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST PUSH TO THE CONVECTION TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND THUS A SMALL
THREAT FOR TSRA AT KTMB. WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING BECMG E 7-8
KT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SW AT KAPF.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 041314
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
914 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT THINKING WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
CONFIRMING A DEEPER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED A TAD WITH THE PWAT
BACK UP TO JUST UNDER 2" BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE
MEAGER AT LESS THAN 6C/KM. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL OVERCOME
SOME OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY BUT MOST STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE INTERIOR BUT COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SUBURBS UPON
INITIALIZATION.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST PUSH TO THE CONVECTION TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND THUS A SMALL
THREAT FOR TSRA AT KTMB. WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING BECMG E 7-8
KT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SW AT KAPF.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 041314
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
914 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT THINKING WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
CONFIRMING A DEEPER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED A TAD WITH THE PWAT
BACK UP TO JUST UNDER 2" BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE
MEAGER AT LESS THAN 6C/KM. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL OVERCOME
SOME OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY BUT MOST STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE INTERIOR BUT COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SUBURBS UPON
INITIALIZATION.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST PUSH TO THE CONVECTION TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND THUS A SMALL
THREAT FOR TSRA AT KTMB. WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING BECMG E 7-8
KT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SW AT KAPF.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 041314
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
914 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT THINKING WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
CONFIRMING A DEEPER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED A TAD WITH THE PWAT
BACK UP TO JUST UNDER 2" BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE
MEAGER AT LESS THAN 6C/KM. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL OVERCOME
SOME OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY BUT MOST STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE INTERIOR BUT COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SUBURBS UPON
INITIALIZATION.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST PUSH TO THE CONVECTION TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND THUS A SMALL
THREAT FOR TSRA AT KTMB. WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING BECMG E 7-8
KT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SW AT KAPF.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 041314
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
914 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT THINKING WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
CONFIRMING A DEEPER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED A TAD WITH THE PWAT
BACK UP TO JUST UNDER 2" BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE
MEAGER AT LESS THAN 6C/KM. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL OVERCOME
SOME OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY BUT MOST STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE INTERIOR BUT COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SUBURBS UPON
INITIALIZATION.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST PUSH TO THE CONVECTION TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND THUS A SMALL
THREAT FOR TSRA AT KTMB. WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING BECMG E 7-8
KT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SW AT KAPF.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 041314
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
914 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT THINKING WITH THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING
CONFIRMING A DEEPER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE HAS ALSO INCREASED A TAD WITH THE PWAT
BACK UP TO JUST UNDER 2" BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO BE
MEAGER AT LESS THAN 6C/KM. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL OVERCOME
SOME OF THE WEAK INSTABILITY BUT MOST STORMS WILL BE CONCENTRATED
OVER THE INTERIOR BUT COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SUBURBS UPON
INITIALIZATION.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST PUSH TO THE CONVECTION TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND THUS A SMALL
THREAT FOR TSRA AT KTMB. WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING BECMG E 7-8
KT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SW AT KAPF.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 041139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST PUSH TO THE CONVECTION TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND THUS A SMALL
THREAT FOR TSRA AT KTMB. WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING BECMG E 7-8
KT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SW AT KAPF.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 041139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST PUSH TO THE CONVECTION TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND THUS A SMALL
THREAT FOR TSRA AT KTMB. WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING BECMG E 7-8
KT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SW AT KAPF.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 041139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST PUSH TO THE CONVECTION TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND THUS A SMALL
THREAT FOR TSRA AT KTMB. WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING BECMG E 7-8
KT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SW AT KAPF.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 041139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS THINKING WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AND A
LITTLE MORE OF A SOUTHEAST PUSH TO THE CONVECTION TODAY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE MOVING INLAND AND THUS A SMALL
THREAT FOR TSRA AT KTMB. WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING BECMG E 7-8
KT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SW AT KAPF.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KKEY 040853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
453 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS SLOWLY BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. A DEEP LAYER COL
REGION REMAINS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...A DEEP BUT GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK. A VERY
SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN THE STREAMLINE PATTERN FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO CUBA. HOWEVER...THE MOMENTUM IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT LOCAL
MESOSCALE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CIRCULATIONS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
LIKELY WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT IN FORCING CHANGES TO LOCAL
THERMODYNAMICS OR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CURRENT RADAR SCANS SHOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CURRENT
AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. FOR TODAY...A FAIRLY DEEP
AND WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AMIDST A MOIST...UNSTABLY STRATIFIED...AND
RELATIVELY UNINHIBITED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD FACILITATE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISLAND CUMULUS LINES...SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
WATERSPOUTS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DROP A FEW TICKS TONIGHT
TROUGH THURSDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE EAST ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...AND
WE COULD SEE HIGHEST COVERAGE AT NIGHT DURING SOME WEAK NOCTURNAL
WIND SURGES OVER THE STRAITS. GRADIENT FLOW PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN
AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN WEAKENS AND
FRACTURES. &&

.MARINE...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD SLOWLY TODAY. THE RIDGE THEN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY SUNRISE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCORPORATE AT THIS TIME. AMENDMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED.
&&

.CLIMATE...IN 2007...THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 87F WAS
RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN
AUGUST...AND TIES FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  81  91  83 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON  93  81  93  83 / 30 20 20 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 040853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
453 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS SLOWLY BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. A DEEP LAYER COL
REGION REMAINS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...A DEEP BUT GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK. A VERY
SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN THE STREAMLINE PATTERN FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO CUBA. HOWEVER...THE MOMENTUM IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT LOCAL
MESOSCALE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CIRCULATIONS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
LIKELY WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT IN FORCING CHANGES TO LOCAL
THERMODYNAMICS OR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CURRENT RADAR SCANS SHOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CURRENT
AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. FOR TODAY...A FAIRLY DEEP
AND WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AMIDST A MOIST...UNSTABLY STRATIFIED...AND
RELATIVELY UNINHIBITED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD FACILITATE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISLAND CUMULUS LINES...SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
WATERSPOUTS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DROP A FEW TICKS TONIGHT
TROUGH THURSDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE EAST ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...AND
WE COULD SEE HIGHEST COVERAGE AT NIGHT DURING SOME WEAK NOCTURNAL
WIND SURGES OVER THE STRAITS. GRADIENT FLOW PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN
AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN WEAKENS AND
FRACTURES. &&

.MARINE...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD SLOWLY TODAY. THE RIDGE THEN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY SUNRISE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCORPORATE AT THIS TIME. AMENDMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED.
&&

.CLIMATE...IN 2007...THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 87F WAS
RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN
AUGUST...AND TIES FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  81  91  83 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON  93  81  93  83 / 30 20 20 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 040853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
453 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS SLOWLY BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. A DEEP LAYER COL
REGION REMAINS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...A DEEP BUT GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK. A VERY
SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN THE STREAMLINE PATTERN FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO CUBA. HOWEVER...THE MOMENTUM IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT LOCAL
MESOSCALE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CIRCULATIONS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
LIKELY WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT IN FORCING CHANGES TO LOCAL
THERMODYNAMICS OR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CURRENT RADAR SCANS SHOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CURRENT
AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. FOR TODAY...A FAIRLY DEEP
AND WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AMIDST A MOIST...UNSTABLY STRATIFIED...AND
RELATIVELY UNINHIBITED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD FACILITATE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISLAND CUMULUS LINES...SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
WATERSPOUTS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DROP A FEW TICKS TONIGHT
TROUGH THURSDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE EAST ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...AND
WE COULD SEE HIGHEST COVERAGE AT NIGHT DURING SOME WEAK NOCTURNAL
WIND SURGES OVER THE STRAITS. GRADIENT FLOW PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN
AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN WEAKENS AND
FRACTURES. &&

.MARINE...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD SLOWLY TODAY. THE RIDGE THEN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY SUNRISE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCORPORATE AT THIS TIME. AMENDMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED.
&&

.CLIMATE...IN 2007...THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 87F WAS
RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN
AUGUST...AND TIES FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  81  91  83 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON  93  81  93  83 / 30 20 20 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 040853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
453 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS SLOWLY BUILDING GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC. A DEEP LAYER COL
REGION REMAINS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
HOWEVER...A DEEP BUT GENTLE EASTERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. LARGE-SCALE FORCING REMAINS WEAK. A VERY
SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN THE STREAMLINE PATTERN FROM THE
BAHAMAS TO CUBA. HOWEVER...THE MOMENTUM IS WEAK ENOUGH THAT LOCAL
MESOSCALE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CIRCULATIONS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
LIKELY WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT IN FORCING CHANGES TO LOCAL
THERMODYNAMICS OR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. CURRENT RADAR SCANS SHOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS...MAINLY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CURRENT
AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. FOR TODAY...A FAIRLY DEEP
AND WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AMIDST A MOIST...UNSTABLY STRATIFIED...AND
RELATIVELY UNINHIBITED ATMOSPHERE SHOULD FACILITATE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISLAND CUMULUS LINES...SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW
WATERSPOUTS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DROP A FEW TICKS TONIGHT
TROUGH THURSDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE EAST ALOFT.
HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...AND
WE COULD SEE HIGHEST COVERAGE AT NIGHT DURING SOME WEAK NOCTURNAL
WIND SURGES OVER THE STRAITS. GRADIENT FLOW PROBABLY WILL WEAKEN
AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND AS THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE ONCE AGAIN WEAKENS AND
FRACTURES. &&

.MARINE...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD SLOWLY TODAY. THE RIDGE THEN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY SUNRISE. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT CONFIDENCE ON
TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCORPORATE AT THIS TIME. AMENDMENTS WILL BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED.
&&

.CLIMATE...IN 2007...THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 87F WAS
RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN
AUGUST...AND TIES FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  81  91  83 / 30 20 20 20
MARATHON  93  81  93  83 / 30 20 20 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 040823
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The overnight analysis reveals broad upper level troughing over the
Great Lakes and northeast states with light northwest flow aloft
over the local area. A pocket of drier air is located over central
Alabama with PWAT values only around 1 inch in the driest areas. A
gradient of deep layer moisture exists over the local forecast area
with fairly dry conditions over the western half and greater
moisture over the eastern half.

As we head through the day, it`s first important to note that the
00z GFS has a poor forecast of dewpoints at least in the first 6
hours of its forecast. It initialized with dewpoints a bit too low
in the dry air across central Alabama and is running 5-10 degrees
too low on its forecast as of 06z. This error seems to propagate
through today`s forecast and results in much lower dewpoints and
instability across a larger part of the forecast area compared to
other guidance. The NAM seems a little more realistic in this case
with a better near term forecast. This has implications for
afternoon convective chances with the GFS and its MOS very dry for
today across most of the area. Meanwhile, the ensemble of CAM
guidance shows a narrow strip of higher PoPs running across the
inland portions of the Florida counties and adjacent sections of
southern Georgia. This appears to be related to the afternoon sea
breeze. The official forecast trended in this direction with higher
PoPs in this area and lower PoPs across the north where the airmass
will be drier, just not as dry as the GFS thinks. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to range from near 90 across the southeast
big bend to the upper 90s across the northwest areas where more
sunshine is likely. With dewpoints expected to remain in the low to
mid 70s across the southern portion of the area, heat index values
are expected to average around 105 there and near 100 elsewhere.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
With the region on the western edge of the subtropical ridge for
the short term period, expect a return to the typical summertime
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance
suggests areas across the Florida Big Bend and into South Central
Georgia will be favored for convection on Wednesday. By Thursday,
the leading edge of the next storm system moves into the Mid
South, and with deep layer moisture on the increase across the
western portion of the region, expect greater rain chances in the
western zones Thursday afternoon.

High temperatures throughout the short term period should be in
the mid 90s.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Primary focus for the long term period will be the approach of a
frontal system on Friday and Saturday. The main energy with this
system will move quickly through the Tennessee Valley on Friday
and reach the Mid Atlantic Coast by Saturday. A frontal boundary
will stall across the region early in the weekend, suggesting a
couple of high PoP days, especially through Sunday. Model guidance
then diverges on whether some drier air will filter in from the
north (GFS) or the region stays stuck in a wet pattern into the
first of next week (Euro). For now will indicate rain chances at
the end of the period slightly above climatology. With a wet
pattern expected for at least the first half of the long term
period, should see afternoon high temperatures in the lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Wednesday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected with a
brief period of MVFR possible near dawn around VLD. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected during the afternoon hours, most
numerous around TLH and VLD.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will return to typical summertime levels through
much of this week as high pressure builds back over the marine
area. A weak frontal system will approach the region by the
weekend and may result in a slight increase in winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Warm and humid conditions will continue for the next several days
with scattered convection, mainly in the afternoon and early
evening.

&&

.Hydrology...
The Steinhatchee River has crested and is now starting to slowly
fall. It is expected that the river will remain above flood stage
for at least the next few days, likely dropping below flood stage
on Friday morning.

With mainly scattered afternoon and evening storms the next few
days, do not anticipate any additional river flood concerns,
though areas in the Southeast Florida Big Bend, particularly in
Dixie County, will be especially prone to further areal flooding,
should any storms move over the area during the next couple of
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  76  93  75  92 /  60  20  40  20  40
Panama City   88  78  88  78  88 /  30  20  40  20  40
Dothan        98  75  94  74  93 /  40  10  40  20  50
Albany        96  76  95  74  92 /  30  10  40  20  50
Valdosta      94  76  94  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  40
Cross City    90  76  92  74  91 /  50  20  40  20  40
Apalachicola  90  79  88  77  87 /  30  20  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 040823
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
423 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The overnight analysis reveals broad upper level troughing over the
Great Lakes and northeast states with light northwest flow aloft
over the local area. A pocket of drier air is located over central
Alabama with PWAT values only around 1 inch in the driest areas. A
gradient of deep layer moisture exists over the local forecast area
with fairly dry conditions over the western half and greater
moisture over the eastern half.

As we head through the day, it`s first important to note that the
00z GFS has a poor forecast of dewpoints at least in the first 6
hours of its forecast. It initialized with dewpoints a bit too low
in the dry air across central Alabama and is running 5-10 degrees
too low on its forecast as of 06z. This error seems to propagate
through today`s forecast and results in much lower dewpoints and
instability across a larger part of the forecast area compared to
other guidance. The NAM seems a little more realistic in this case
with a better near term forecast. This has implications for
afternoon convective chances with the GFS and its MOS very dry for
today across most of the area. Meanwhile, the ensemble of CAM
guidance shows a narrow strip of higher PoPs running across the
inland portions of the Florida counties and adjacent sections of
southern Georgia. This appears to be related to the afternoon sea
breeze. The official forecast trended in this direction with higher
PoPs in this area and lower PoPs across the north where the airmass
will be drier, just not as dry as the GFS thinks. Afternoon high
temperatures are expected to range from near 90 across the southeast
big bend to the upper 90s across the northwest areas where more
sunshine is likely. With dewpoints expected to remain in the low to
mid 70s across the southern portion of the area, heat index values
are expected to average around 105 there and near 100 elsewhere.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
With the region on the western edge of the subtropical ridge for
the short term period, expect a return to the typical summertime
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance
suggests areas across the Florida Big Bend and into South Central
Georgia will be favored for convection on Wednesday. By Thursday,
the leading edge of the next storm system moves into the Mid
South, and with deep layer moisture on the increase across the
western portion of the region, expect greater rain chances in the
western zones Thursday afternoon.

High temperatures throughout the short term period should be in
the mid 90s.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Primary focus for the long term period will be the approach of a
frontal system on Friday and Saturday. The main energy with this
system will move quickly through the Tennessee Valley on Friday
and reach the Mid Atlantic Coast by Saturday. A frontal boundary
will stall across the region early in the weekend, suggesting a
couple of high PoP days, especially through Sunday. Model guidance
then diverges on whether some drier air will filter in from the
north (GFS) or the region stays stuck in a wet pattern into the
first of next week (Euro). For now will indicate rain chances at
the end of the period slightly above climatology. With a wet
pattern expected for at least the first half of the long term
period, should see afternoon high temperatures in the lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Wednesday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected with a
brief period of MVFR possible near dawn around VLD. Isolated to
scattered convection is expected during the afternoon hours, most
numerous around TLH and VLD.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will return to typical summertime levels through
much of this week as high pressure builds back over the marine
area. A weak frontal system will approach the region by the
weekend and may result in a slight increase in winds.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Warm and humid conditions will continue for the next several days
with scattered convection, mainly in the afternoon and early
evening.

&&

.Hydrology...
The Steinhatchee River has crested and is now starting to slowly
fall. It is expected that the river will remain above flood stage
for at least the next few days, likely dropping below flood stage
on Friday morning.

With mainly scattered afternoon and evening storms the next few
days, do not anticipate any additional river flood concerns,
though areas in the Southeast Florida Big Bend, particularly in
Dixie County, will be especially prone to further areal flooding,
should any storms move over the area during the next couple of
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  76  93  75  92 /  60  20  40  20  40
Panama City   88  78  88  78  88 /  30  20  40  20  40
Dothan        98  75  94  74  93 /  40  10  40  20  50
Albany        96  76  95  74  92 /  30  10  40  20  50
Valdosta      94  76  94  74  92 /  50  20  40  20  40
Cross City    90  76  92  74  91 /  50  20  40  20  40
Apalachicola  90  79  88  77  87 /  30  20  30  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



000
FXUS62 KJAX 040822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING)...
WEAK LOW OFF THE SE GA COAST BEGINS TO PUSH NE. IN ITS WAKE A
WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE NW OF THE TROF AXIS EXPECT TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE MID 90S AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NOSES IN OVER SE GA.
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER GA. IN THE MORNING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROF AXIS
EXTENDING FROM GAINESVILLE NE THROUGH THE JAX METRO AREA. SW FLOW
WILL DOMINATE ALONG THE TROF AXIS AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL FIRE IN THE FL BIG BEND REGION AND PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. TROF AXIS LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE FL/GA BORDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG
THE FL/GA BORDER FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NW WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR...BUT
COULD HELP GENERATE STRONGER DOWNBURSTS IN CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-THU)...
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS BOTH NE FL/SE GA
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THE BIG BEND AND I-75 CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA
WHICH WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACRS NE FL AND MIDDLE 90S ACRS SE GA AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-105 DEG RANGE. SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AMPLIFYING EASTERN U.S. TROF WILL PUSH THE NEXT WEAKENING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE SERN U.S. ON FRIDAY AND INTO NE FL/SE GA OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS
INCREASING WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 50-70% RANGE AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FASTER
MOVING FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT
SHIFTING TO GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO
VALUES WITH LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. EARLY TSRA/SHRA OVER
GNV. POSSIBLE VCSH IN THE LATE MORNING NEAR THE COASTAL FL
TERMINALS. TRANSITION TO VCTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCEC CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. A RIDGE
SLIDES IN AND KEEPS WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONTS APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BRINGS WITH IT A
POSSIBLE RETURN TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  75  95  74 /  30  20  40  20
SSI  88  77  90  78 /  40  30  30  20
JAX  90  76  92  74 /  50  30  40  20
SGJ  87  76  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
GNV  87  74  91  73 /  50  30  40  20
OCF  87  74  92  73 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WALSH/HESS



000
FXUS62 KJAX 040822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING)...
WEAK LOW OFF THE SE GA COAST BEGINS TO PUSH NE. IN ITS WAKE A
WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE NW OF THE TROF AXIS EXPECT TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE MID 90S AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NOSES IN OVER SE GA.
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER GA. IN THE MORNING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROF AXIS
EXTENDING FROM GAINESVILLE NE THROUGH THE JAX METRO AREA. SW FLOW
WILL DOMINATE ALONG THE TROF AXIS AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL FIRE IN THE FL BIG BEND REGION AND PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. TROF AXIS LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE FL/GA BORDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG
THE FL/GA BORDER FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NW WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR...BUT
COULD HELP GENERATE STRONGER DOWNBURSTS IN CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-THU)...
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS BOTH NE FL/SE GA
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THE BIG BEND AND I-75 CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA
WHICH WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACRS NE FL AND MIDDLE 90S ACRS SE GA AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-105 DEG RANGE. SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AMPLIFYING EASTERN U.S. TROF WILL PUSH THE NEXT WEAKENING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE SERN U.S. ON FRIDAY AND INTO NE FL/SE GA OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS
INCREASING WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 50-70% RANGE AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FASTER
MOVING FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT
SHIFTING TO GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO
VALUES WITH LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. EARLY TSRA/SHRA OVER
GNV. POSSIBLE VCSH IN THE LATE MORNING NEAR THE COASTAL FL
TERMINALS. TRANSITION TO VCTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCEC CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. A RIDGE
SLIDES IN AND KEEPS WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONTS APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BRINGS WITH IT A
POSSIBLE RETURN TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  75  95  74 /  30  20  40  20
SSI  88  77  90  78 /  40  30  30  20
JAX  90  76  92  74 /  50  30  40  20
SGJ  87  76  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
GNV  87  74  91  73 /  50  30  40  20
OCF  87  74  92  73 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WALSH/HESS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 040822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING)...
WEAK LOW OFF THE SE GA COAST BEGINS TO PUSH NE. IN ITS WAKE A
WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TO THE NW OF THE TROF AXIS EXPECT TEMPS TO
REACH INTO THE MID 90S AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NOSES IN OVER SE GA.
DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO FILL IN OVER GA. IN THE MORNING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TROF AXIS
EXTENDING FROM GAINESVILLE NE THROUGH THE JAX METRO AREA. SW FLOW
WILL DOMINATE ALONG THE TROF AXIS AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL FIRE IN THE FL BIG BEND REGION AND PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. TROF AXIS LOOKS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE FL/GA BORDER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SFC CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ALONG
THE FL/GA BORDER FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. DRY
AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NW WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR...BUT
COULD HELP GENERATE STRONGER DOWNBURSTS IN CELLS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-THU)...
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS BOTH NE FL/SE GA
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN TYPICAL MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THE BIG BEND AND I-75 CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA
WHICH WILL TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOWER 90S ACRS NE FL AND MIDDLE 90S ACRS SE GA AND THIS
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-105 DEG RANGE. SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
AMPLIFYING EASTERN U.S. TROF WILL PUSH THE NEXT WEAKENING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE SERN U.S. ON FRIDAY AND INTO NE FL/SE GA OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS WELL AS
INCREASING WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AND RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
INTO THE 50-70% RANGE AND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE FASTER
MOVING FROM THE WEST TO EAST WITH THE PRIMARY STORM THREAT
SHIFTING TO GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. SCATTERED STORM CHANCES WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ACROSS THE
REGION. MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR CLIMO
VALUES WITH LOWER 90S EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL LIFT AFTER SUNRISE. EARLY TSRA/SHRA OVER
GNV. POSSIBLE VCSH IN THE LATE MORNING NEAR THE COASTAL FL
TERMINALS. TRANSITION TO VCTS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SCEC CAUTION FOR THE OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY DOWN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. A RIDGE
SLIDES IN AND KEEPS WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONTS APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND BRINGS WITH IT A
POSSIBLE RETURN TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  75  95  74 /  30  20  40  20
SSI  88  77  90  78 /  40  30  30  20
JAX  90  76  92  74 /  50  30  40  20
SGJ  87  76  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
GNV  87  74  91  73 /  50  30  40  20
OCF  87  74  92  73 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WALSH/HESS




000
FXUS62 KTBW 040746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES
TO LIFT NEWARD WHILE THE REGION REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL RESIDUAL VORT MAXES
MEANDERING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THE AREA CONTINUES TO LOOSE THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHILE A WEAK AND INCREASING DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STRETCHED BACK OVER THE N FL PENINSULA AND NE GULF THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL PROGRESSES NORTHWARD TODAY. THE
LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD WATCH ZONES THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
LIKE LAST FEW DAYS BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM SURFACE EVAPORATION
OF EXISTING RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS TO EXACERBATE
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TO UPPER RIDGING
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SCATTERED DIURNAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DEEPENING SOME LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A GENERAL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WE SHOULD SEE THE MORE
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE INTERIOR
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT WE COULD
SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80
NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST THAT DO NOT RECEIVE LATE NIGHT RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
.AVIATION... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKENING SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2
FT OR LESS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT THOUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER OR FOG CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RURAL AND URBAN
AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN PASCO...NORTHERN
PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO FLOOD WATERS WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TODAY.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT
WITH MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TODAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  77  90  78 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  30  20  50  20
GIF  92  75  93  76 /  40  30  50  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  20   0  20  10
BKV  89  72  91  73 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  89  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 040746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES
TO LIFT NEWARD WHILE THE REGION REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL RESIDUAL VORT MAXES
MEANDERING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THE AREA CONTINUES TO LOOSE THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHILE A WEAK AND INCREASING DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STRETCHED BACK OVER THE N FL PENINSULA AND NE GULF THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL PROGRESSES NORTHWARD TODAY. THE
LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD WATCH ZONES THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
LIKE LAST FEW DAYS BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM SURFACE EVAPORATION
OF EXISTING RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS TO EXACERBATE
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TO UPPER RIDGING
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SCATTERED DIURNAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DEEPENING SOME LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A GENERAL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WE SHOULD SEE THE MORE
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE INTERIOR
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT WE COULD
SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80
NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST THAT DO NOT RECEIVE LATE NIGHT RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
.AVIATION... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKENING SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2
FT OR LESS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT THOUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER OR FOG CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RURAL AND URBAN
AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN PASCO...NORTHERN
PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO FLOOD WATERS WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TODAY.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT
WITH MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TODAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  77  90  78 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  30  20  50  20
GIF  92  75  93  76 /  40  30  50  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  20   0  20  10
BKV  89  72  91  73 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  89  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 040746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES
TO LIFT NEWARD WHILE THE REGION REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL RESIDUAL VORT MAXES
MEANDERING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THE AREA CONTINUES TO LOOSE THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHILE A WEAK AND INCREASING DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STRETCHED BACK OVER THE N FL PENINSULA AND NE GULF THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL PROGRESSES NORTHWARD TODAY. THE
LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD WATCH ZONES THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
LIKE LAST FEW DAYS BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM SURFACE EVAPORATION
OF EXISTING RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS TO EXACERBATE
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TO UPPER RIDGING
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SCATTERED DIURNAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DEEPENING SOME LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A GENERAL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WE SHOULD SEE THE MORE
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE INTERIOR
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT WE COULD
SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80
NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST THAT DO NOT RECEIVE LATE NIGHT RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
.AVIATION... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKENING SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2
FT OR LESS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT THOUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER OR FOG CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RURAL AND URBAN
AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN PASCO...NORTHERN
PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO FLOOD WATERS WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TODAY.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT
WITH MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TODAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  77  90  78 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  30  20  50  20
GIF  92  75  93  76 /  40  30  50  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  20   0  20  10
BKV  89  72  91  73 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  89  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 040746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES
TO LIFT NEWARD WHILE THE REGION REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL RESIDUAL VORT MAXES
MEANDERING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THE AREA CONTINUES TO LOOSE THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHILE A WEAK AND INCREASING DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STRETCHED BACK OVER THE N FL PENINSULA AND NE GULF THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL PROGRESSES NORTHWARD TODAY. THE
LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD WATCH ZONES THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
LIKE LAST FEW DAYS BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM SURFACE EVAPORATION
OF EXISTING RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS TO EXACERBATE
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TO UPPER RIDGING
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SCATTERED DIURNAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DEEPENING SOME LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A GENERAL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WE SHOULD SEE THE MORE
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE INTERIOR
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT WE COULD
SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80
NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST THAT DO NOT RECEIVE LATE NIGHT RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
.AVIATION... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKENING SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2
FT OR LESS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT THOUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER OR FOG CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RURAL AND URBAN
AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN PASCO...NORTHERN
PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO FLOOD WATERS WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TODAY.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT
WITH MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TODAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  77  90  78 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  30  20  50  20
GIF  92  75  93  76 /  40  30  50  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  20   0  20  10
BKV  89  72  91  73 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  89  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 040746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES
TO LIFT NEWARD WHILE THE REGION REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL RESIDUAL VORT MAXES
MEANDERING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THE AREA CONTINUES TO LOOSE THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHILE A WEAK AND INCREASING DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STRETCHED BACK OVER THE N FL PENINSULA AND NE GULF THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL PROGRESSES NORTHWARD TODAY. THE
LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD WATCH ZONES THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
LIKE LAST FEW DAYS BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM SURFACE EVAPORATION
OF EXISTING RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS TO EXACERBATE
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TO UPPER RIDGING
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SCATTERED DIURNAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DEEPENING SOME LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A GENERAL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WE SHOULD SEE THE MORE
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE INTERIOR
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT WE COULD
SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80
NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST THAT DO NOT RECEIVE LATE NIGHT RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
.AVIATION... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKENING SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2
FT OR LESS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT THOUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER OR FOG CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RURAL AND URBAN
AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN PASCO...NORTHERN
PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO FLOOD WATERS WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TODAY.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT
WITH MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TODAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  77  90  78 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  30  20  50  20
GIF  92  75  93  76 /  40  30  50  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  20   0  20  10
BKV  89  72  91  73 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  89  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 040746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES
TO LIFT NEWARD WHILE THE REGION REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL RESIDUAL VORT MAXES
MEANDERING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THE AREA CONTINUES TO LOOSE THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHILE A WEAK AND INCREASING DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STRETCHED BACK OVER THE N FL PENINSULA AND NE GULF THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL PROGRESSES NORTHWARD TODAY. THE
LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD WATCH ZONES THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
LIKE LAST FEW DAYS BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM SURFACE EVAPORATION
OF EXISTING RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS TO EXACERBATE
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TO UPPER RIDGING
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SCATTERED DIURNAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DEEPENING SOME LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A GENERAL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WE SHOULD SEE THE MORE
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE INTERIOR
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT WE COULD
SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80
NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST THAT DO NOT RECEIVE LATE NIGHT RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
.AVIATION... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKENING SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2
FT OR LESS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT THOUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER OR FOG CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RURAL AND URBAN
AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN PASCO...NORTHERN
PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO FLOOD WATERS WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TODAY.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT
WITH MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TODAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  77  90  78 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  30  20  50  20
GIF  92  75  93  76 /  40  30  50  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  20   0  20  10
BKV  89  72  91  73 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  89  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 040746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES
TO LIFT NEWARD WHILE THE REGION REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL RESIDUAL VORT MAXES
MEANDERING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THE AREA CONTINUES TO LOOSE THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHILE A WEAK AND INCREASING DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STRETCHED BACK OVER THE N FL PENINSULA AND NE GULF THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL PROGRESSES NORTHWARD TODAY. THE
LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD WATCH ZONES THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
LIKE LAST FEW DAYS BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM SURFACE EVAPORATION
OF EXISTING RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS TO EXACERBATE
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TO UPPER RIDGING
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SCATTERED DIURNAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DEEPENING SOME LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A GENERAL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WE SHOULD SEE THE MORE
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE INTERIOR
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT WE COULD
SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80
NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST THAT DO NOT RECEIVE LATE NIGHT RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
.AVIATION... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKENING SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2
FT OR LESS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT THOUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER OR FOG CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RURAL AND URBAN
AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN PASCO...NORTHERN
PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO FLOOD WATERS WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TODAY.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT
WITH MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TODAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  77  90  78 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  30  20  50  20
GIF  92  75  93  76 /  40  30  50  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  20   0  20  10
BKV  89  72  91  73 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  89  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 040746
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
346 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...BROAD UPPER LONGWAVE
TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES
TO LIFT NEWARD WHILE THE REGION REMAINS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW SEVERAL RESIDUAL VORT MAXES
MEANDERING OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...BUT THE AREA CONTINUES TO LOOSE THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT.

AT THE SURFACE...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHILE A WEAK AND INCREASING DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS
STRETCHED BACK OVER THE N FL PENINSULA AND NE GULF THIS MORNING AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER S FL PROGRESSES NORTHWARD TODAY. THE
LOW LEVEL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD WATCH ZONES THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. NOT EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS
LIKE LAST FEW DAYS BUT INCREASED MOISTURE FROM SURFACE EVAPORATION
OF EXISTING RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS TO EXACERBATE
ONGOING FLOODING PROBLEMS TODAY AND WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THIS POTENTIAL. FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TO UPPER RIDGING
TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION FOR A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
SCATTERED DIURNAL SEABREEZE INTERACTION CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. WITH TROUGHING
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DEEPENING SOME LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE THE
RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A GENERAL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WE SHOULD SEE THE MORE
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WHICH HAS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE NIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS MOVING ONSHORE IN THE MORNING AND INTO THE INTERIOR
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH IT WE COULD
SEE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE CHANCE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) POPS FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NATURE
COAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80
NEAR THE COAST...POSSIBLY LOWER 80S IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COAST THAT DO NOT RECEIVE LATE NIGHT RAINFALL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
.AVIATION... GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VCTS THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POSSIBLE BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTIONS UNTIL 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RELAXING AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE WATERS FROM THE SOUTH. WEAKENING SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2
FT OR LESS BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT THOUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER OR FOG CONCERNS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...YESTERDAYS RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF RURAL AND URBAN
AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN PASCO...NORTHERN
PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES. THE GROUND REMAINS
SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO FLOOD WATERS WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TODAY.

RECENT HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT
WITH MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TODAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  77  90  78 /  30  10  20  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  30  20  50  20
GIF  92  75  93  76 /  40  30  50  30
SRQ  89  75  90  76 /  20   0  20  10
BKV  89  72  91  73 /  40  10  30  10
SPG  89  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/DAVIS
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KMLB 040711
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...925MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST TODAY AS
THE LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS S FL TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. 00Z GFS/ECM SHOW DRIER MID LVL AIR IN THE H7-H5 LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS NRN SECTIONS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT
MORNING MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND RATHER WARM MID LVL TEMPS PROGD FROM -5 TO -6 AT H5 DO NOT
APPEAR TO SUPPORT VERY ROBUST CONVECTION. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT FOR NRN SECTIONS AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN INTERIOR
WHERE THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY INTERACT LATE WITH
WEST COAST BREEZE ACROSS WRN OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE WILL FORECAST ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
SRN COASTAL SECTIONS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD MOVE INLAND
BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CURRENT CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH INTO
MID DAY AND THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUN ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS.
HIGHS NEAR 90 TO THE LOWER 90S SRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...SOME EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
OSCEOLA/SE ORANGE AND NRN BREVARD COUNTIES WITH LATE DAY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...WILL KEEP A LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THESE
AREAS SE TWD THE TREASURE COAST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

WED-THU...ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING IN
COVERAGE WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. HAVE POPS
RANGING AROUND 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND 40-50 PERCENT
INLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT MAY LEAD
TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK W/SW
STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR TO
MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHIFTING FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE HELPS DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC THAT LIFTS N/NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH TRAILING
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.
THIS BOUNDARY AND LINGERING U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COAST WILL
SHIFT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD AND LEAD TO A DEEPER OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. LOW LEVEL W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EACH AFT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFT AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION.
ANY STORMS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT INTERACT WHERE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOW 90S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWERED SHRA/TSRA TO PROB30 GROUPS FOR INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE CHC CATEGORY EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN TO STAY
MAINLY WEST OF TERMINALS FROM KMLB-KSUA AS E COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT PAST 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... MORNING WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL BE AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT SO WILL LOWER SCEC HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT
TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DROP AND AVERAGE 2 FT NEARSHORE TO
3 FT OFFSHORE LATE.

WED-SAT...RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BY MID WEEK BEFORE IT SHIFTS BACK SOUTHWARD FRI-SAT. S/SE WINDS
BECOME S/SW BY LATE WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET. A RELATIVELY
WEAK W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL BE PRESENT EACH AFT WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS POTENTIALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE EACH AFT/EARLY EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  91  74 /  40  20  30  20
MCO  90  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  30
MLB  90  74  89  76 /  30  20  40  20
VRB  89  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  90  75  92  77 /  40  10  40  20
SFB  90  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  30
ORL  90  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  30
FPR  90  72  90  74 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 040711
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...925MB LOW CENTER WILL MOVE NE ALONG THE GA/SC COAST TODAY AS
THE LOW LVL RIDGE AXIS MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS S FL TOWARD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. 00Z GFS/ECM SHOW DRIER MID LVL AIR IN THE H7-H5 LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY IN THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS NRN SECTIONS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT BUT
MORNING MID/HIGH LVL CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND RATHER WARM MID LVL TEMPS PROGD FROM -5 TO -6 AT H5 DO NOT
APPEAR TO SUPPORT VERY ROBUST CONVECTION. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT FOR NRN SECTIONS AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE SRN INTERIOR
WHERE THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY INTERACT LATE WITH
WEST COAST BREEZE ACROSS WRN OKEECHOBEE AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE WILL FORECAST ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR
SRN COASTAL SECTIONS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD MOVE INLAND
BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SOME THINNING OF THE CURRENT CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTH INTO
MID DAY AND THE AFTERNOON WITH MORE SUN ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS.
HIGHS NEAR 90 TO THE LOWER 90S SRN INTERIOR.

TONIGHT...SOME EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS
OSCEOLA/SE ORANGE AND NRN BREVARD COUNTIES WITH LATE DAY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS...WILL KEEP A LOW SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THESE
AREAS SE TWD THE TREASURE COAST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.  LOWS WILL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

WED-THU...ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS LIFTS BACK NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION INTO MID WEEK. A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND INCREASING IN
COVERAGE WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. HAVE POPS
RANGING AROUND 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND 40-50 PERCENT
INLAND. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT MAY LEAD
TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK W/SW
STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR TO
MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES.

TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST TO LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHIFTING FROM
THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LATE WEEK/EARLY
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE HELPS DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC THAT LIFTS N/NE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH TRAILING
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS WEEKEND.
THIS BOUNDARY AND LINGERING U/L TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN COAST WILL
SHIFT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD AND LEAD TO A DEEPER OFFSHORE
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL. LOW LEVEL W/SW WINDS SHOULD BE JUST WEAK
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM EACH AFT...
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP EACH AFT AND PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE REGION.
ANY STORMS/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT INTERACT WHERE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE LOW 90S MOST AREAS WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...LOWERED SHRA/TSRA TO PROB30 GROUPS FOR INTERIOR
TERMINALS WITH RAIN CHANCES IN THE CHC CATEGORY EXPECTED THIS AFTN.
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN TO STAY
MAINLY WEST OF TERMINALS FROM KMLB-KSUA AS E COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT PAST 00Z.

&&

.MARINE... MORNING WINDS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL BE AROUND
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3-4 FT SO WILL LOWER SCEC HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO 8-12 KNOTS THIS AFTN BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME OVERNIGHT
TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY DROP AND AVERAGE 2 FT NEARSHORE TO
3 FT OFFSHORE LATE.

WED-SAT...RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
BY MID WEEK BEFORE IT SHIFTS BACK SOUTHWARD FRI-SAT. S/SE WINDS
BECOME S/SW BY LATE WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET. A RELATIVELY
WEAK W/SW STEERING FLOW WILL BE PRESENT EACH AFT WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS POTENTIALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE EACH AFT/EARLY EVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  73  91  74 /  40  20  30  20
MCO  90  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  30
MLB  90  74  89  76 /  30  20  40  20
VRB  89  73  90  74 /  20  20  40  20
LEE  90  75  92  77 /  40  10  40  20
SFB  90  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  30
ORL  90  76  93  76 /  40  20  40  30
FPR  90  72  90  74 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH



000
FXUS62 KMFL 040641
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 040641
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 040641
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 040641
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 040641
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
241 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
TODAY...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER COASTAL
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TODAY...AND
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALLOW DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION.

HIRES AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND MOVE
INLAND. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP BY MID/LATE
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION THEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
MAINLY INLAND OF THE METRO AREAS IN THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. LAPSE
RATES WILL STEEPEN SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IN THE
700-500MB LAYER MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL
FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE 15.5KFT. SO CANNOT RULE A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS...MAINLY ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST CURRENTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY
FROM AN OLD UPPER LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST...BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -7.5C AT 500MB). THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AS WELL...AND A BRIEF MOISTURE SURGE IS FORECAST
AHEAD OF THE SAHARAN DUST WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 2-2.25 INCHES.
THIS WILL LEAD TO GOOD RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST PUSH INTO THE REGION QUICKLY ON
THURSDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING FROM 2 INCHES IN THE MORNING TO
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES BY THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL
AREAS...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PROVIDE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY. ANOTHER LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA
OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE STALLING. THE 850MB RIDGE WILL BISECT THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST WILL ENGULF
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ONLY MEAGER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SLIGHT MOISTENING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE
EACH DAY...BUT SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
LEVELS. A SHEAR AXIS MAY PUSH INTO THE LAKE REGION IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESUME...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.

HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW 90S EVERYDAY...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE
100-105F EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD
KEEP THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS
USED AT TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT
WENT WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH SEAS AROUND
2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  77 /  30  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  91  80 /  30  10  50  20
MIAMI            92  78  92  80 /  30  10  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 040548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...

WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS USED AT
TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT WENT
WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  79  90  78 /  40  10  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  90  80 /  30  20  40  10
MIAMI            91  79  92  80 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 040548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...

WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS USED AT
TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT WENT
WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  79  90  78 /  40  10  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  90  80 /  30  20  40  10
MIAMI            91  79  92  80 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 040548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...

WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING NORTH FL, SE TO E FLOW WILL BE
MORE UNIFORM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAN YESTERDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE MOST NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR. VCTS WAS USED AT
TMB IN CASE ANY OUTFLOWS STIR UP ANY CONVECTION THERE, BUT WENT
WITH VCSH ELSEWHERE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. APF GULF
BREEZE EXPECTED AROUND 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  79  90  78 /  40  10  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  90  80 /  30  20  40  10
MIAMI            91  79  92  80 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  76  91  78 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KJAX 040157
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
957 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH WAS THE FOCAL POINT FOR STRONG STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS AREAS OF THE SOUTH. NEARLY 5 INCHES OF RAIN
ALONG WITH FLOODING WAS REPORTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE
THIS EVE. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WITH LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MEANDERING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL
KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES.
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH ISOLATED STORMS ENDING
THIS EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL LOW END MVFR VSBY AND CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE EVENING CONVECTION
EXPECTED FROM GNV TO SGJ WHERE IFR VSBY ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THAT MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
WITH OCNL VFR POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY ALSO PERSIST
NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OVER NE FL AND SE GA. LOW CIGS MAY BE SLOWER
TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE SE GA COAST PER LATEST HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE NEAR THE SFC LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING SFC
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH VICINITY TSTM IN
TAF FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT FROM SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR SHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  74  95 /  20  20  20  30
SSI  76  93  75  88 /  40  30  30  30
JAX  74  92  75  92 /  40  50  30  50
SGJ  75  89  74  89 /  80  50  30  40
GNV  73  90  72  89 /  80  40  30  40
OCF  74  89  72  89 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PP/ARS/JC




000
FXUS62 KJAX 040157
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
957 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH WAS THE FOCAL POINT FOR STRONG STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS AREAS OF THE SOUTH. NEARLY 5 INCHES OF RAIN
ALONG WITH FLOODING WAS REPORTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE
THIS EVE. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WITH LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MEANDERING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL
KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES.
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH ISOLATED STORMS ENDING
THIS EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL LOW END MVFR VSBY AND CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE EVENING CONVECTION
EXPECTED FROM GNV TO SGJ WHERE IFR VSBY ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THAT MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
WITH OCNL VFR POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY ALSO PERSIST
NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OVER NE FL AND SE GA. LOW CIGS MAY BE SLOWER
TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE SE GA COAST PER LATEST HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE NEAR THE SFC LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING SFC
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH VICINITY TSTM IN
TAF FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT FROM SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR SHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  74  95 /  20  20  20  30
SSI  76  93  75  88 /  40  30  30  30
JAX  74  92  75  92 /  40  50  30  50
SGJ  75  89  74  89 /  80  50  30  40
GNV  73  90  72  89 /  80  40  30  40
OCF  74  89  72  89 /  80  40  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PP/ARS/JC



000
FXUS62 KKEY 040139
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
935 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.14 INCHES AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TO 4.73
   INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN NEW TOWN KEY WEST....

.DISCUSSION...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE
COMBINATION OF A CLOUD LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER KEYS AND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGRATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS RESULTED IN A SOLID BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM IN AND AROUND KEY WEST TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
BIG COPPITT KEY. IN ADDITION...A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMED FURTHER EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER KEYS. CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE RAIN COOLED MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE
NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PICKED UP BEYOND 60 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. SURFACE WISE...A NEBULOUS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TO THE
ISLAND OF CUBA MIGRATES WESTWARD AND DECELERATES TOWARD THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES INTERACTING
WITH A MODEST LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BETWEEN 80 AND 85 DEGREES AS WINDS TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE DRAPED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR 10 KNOTS SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 040139
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
935 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.14 INCHES AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TO 4.73
   INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN NEW TOWN KEY WEST....

.DISCUSSION...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE
COMBINATION OF A CLOUD LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER KEYS AND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGRATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS RESULTED IN A SOLID BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM IN AND AROUND KEY WEST TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
BIG COPPITT KEY. IN ADDITION...A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMED FURTHER EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER KEYS. CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE RAIN COOLED MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE
NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PICKED UP BEYOND 60 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. SURFACE WISE...A NEBULOUS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TO THE
ISLAND OF CUBA MIGRATES WESTWARD AND DECELERATES TOWARD THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES INTERACTING
WITH A MODEST LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BETWEEN 80 AND 85 DEGREES AS WINDS TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE DRAPED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR 10 KNOTS SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 040139
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
935 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...RECORD RAINFALL OF 3.14 INCHES AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT TO 4.73
   INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN NEW TOWN KEY WEST....

.DISCUSSION...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE
COMBINATION OF A CLOUD LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE LOWER KEYS AND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGRATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS RESULTED IN A SOLID BAND OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM IN AND AROUND KEY WEST TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
BIG COPPITT KEY. IN ADDITION...A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORMED FURTHER EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LOWER KEYS. CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE RAIN COOLED MID 70S TO THE
MID 80S IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE
NOT DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION IN OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA...BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PICKED UP BEYOND 60 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. SURFACE WISE...A NEBULOUS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...RESULTING IN NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
A DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL HOLD FIRM ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...AS A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TO THE
ISLAND OF CUBA MIGRATES WESTWARD AND DECELERATES TOWARD THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES INTERACTING
WITH A MODEST LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND BETWEEN 80 AND 85 DEGREES AS WINDS TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE DRAPED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXCEPT NEAR 10 KNOTS SOUTH
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHEAST...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION.............................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 040125
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
925 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. DEEP TROUGHING IS MOVING ASHORE
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY
SHARP RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND THEN FINALLY
FOLLOWED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIVING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST STATES
AND DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR LOCAL AREA
RESIDES WITHIN A LESS DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID-LEVELS STILL LEFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DURING THE PAST 24 TO
30 HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE THIS PV ANOMALY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING NE FLORIDA AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
TO OUR SOUTH...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
TOWARD AN EVENTUAL POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MIDWEEK.

ON RADAR...THINGS CERTAINLY HAVE IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
LARGE EXPANSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT SOAKED MUCH OF WEST-
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON QUICKLY DISSIPATED
AFTER 18Z...AND TRENDED WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER
VORTICITY CENTER. RENEWED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ORGANIZED DURING
THE EVENING OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
INTO LEVY COUNTY AS OF 8-9 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT
OF LOWER LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 300-305K SURFACES WITHIN THE SHEAR AXIS TRAILING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW CENTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE CONTINUE TO LOOSE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS POINT GOING FORWARD. FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...WE DO NOT HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS STILL OVER THE FAR NORTHERN NATURE
COAST ZONES...AND THEN LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE NOTHING
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH
UP...JUST IN CASE. NAM/RAP BOTH SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF LOW LEVEL
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST RELATED TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE DEPARTING GRADIENT OF THE LOW AND THE
REBOUNDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SCT SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD
WATCH ZONES...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE...AT THIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MOST RELIABLE PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE
HAVING THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES TRIGGERED WITHIN THIS ZONE
OVERNIGHT BY THESE PROCESSES...AND THE EXPLICIT MODELS QPF LINE
UP AS WELL.

THIS SHEAR AXIS COLLAPSES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
OVER OUR AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT
AN ALMOST NORMAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE STATE...FINALLY NO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF...AN
A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE MOVING ASHORE FROM BOTH COASTS OF THE
PENINSULA. MUCH LIKE A TYPICAL AUGUST DAY...THE SEA-BREEZES WILL
SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM
THE COAST DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND...IS THAT SOIL MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH. THE SUN WORKING ITS
EVAPORATIVE INFLUENCES ON THESE SOILS WILL ADD TO THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE. THEREFORE...STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CONVECTION
SHOULD NOT BE (AND IS NOT FORECAST TO BE) WIDESPREAD...BUT ANY
LOCATION THAT SEES A STORM DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO COULD LOCALLY
RENEW FLOODING CONCERNS. ALL THIS IS YET ANOTHER REASON TO GIVE
THE FLOOD WATCH ONE MORE DAY...AND HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RETURN MORE TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THIS HAZARD
POTENTIAL TO BE EXPIRED. HANG IN THERE...OTHER THAN THE RIVERS
(WHICH STILL HAVE A AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF IMPACTS)...THINGS LOOK
AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE IMPROVING.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE UNUSUAL WET
PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF FLORIDA TO REGAIN STRENGTH AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD PUTTING US BACK IN A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE SCENARIO TO
SET UP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS ITS POSITION BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK RIDGING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SO ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS...BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE OVERNIGHT AROUND
KPIE/KTPA...AND THEN A SCATTERING OF MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN FOR MANY DAYS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS MORE DIURNAL AND SCATTERED NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LONG DURATION RAINFALL RECENTLY SEEN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER STAY VERY HIGH PREVENTING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FROM APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ACTIVE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE TAMPA BAY
AREA WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND URBAN AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN
PASCO...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.
THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO
FLOOD WATERS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TODAYS HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT WITH
MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED.  THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  78  90 /  30  30  10  40
FMY  75  92  76  93 /  20  40  40  40
GIF  73  91  76  94 /  20  40  40  50
SRQ  77  88  76  90 /  20  30  10  20
BKV  75  89  72  92 /  30  40  30  50
SPG  77  89  79  90 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTBW 040125
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
925 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. DEEP TROUGHING IS MOVING ASHORE
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY
SHARP RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND THEN FINALLY
FOLLOWED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIVING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST STATES
AND DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR LOCAL AREA
RESIDES WITHIN A LESS DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID-LEVELS STILL LEFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DURING THE PAST 24 TO
30 HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE THIS PV ANOMALY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING NE FLORIDA AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
TO OUR SOUTH...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
TOWARD AN EVENTUAL POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MIDWEEK.

ON RADAR...THINGS CERTAINLY HAVE IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
LARGE EXPANSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT SOAKED MUCH OF WEST-
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON QUICKLY DISSIPATED
AFTER 18Z...AND TRENDED WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER
VORTICITY CENTER. RENEWED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ORGANIZED DURING
THE EVENING OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
INTO LEVY COUNTY AS OF 8-9 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT
OF LOWER LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 300-305K SURFACES WITHIN THE SHEAR AXIS TRAILING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW CENTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE CONTINUE TO LOOSE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS POINT GOING FORWARD. FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...WE DO NOT HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS STILL OVER THE FAR NORTHERN NATURE
COAST ZONES...AND THEN LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE NOTHING
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH
UP...JUST IN CASE. NAM/RAP BOTH SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF LOW LEVEL
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST RELATED TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE DEPARTING GRADIENT OF THE LOW AND THE
REBOUNDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SCT SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD
WATCH ZONES...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE...AT THIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MOST RELIABLE PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE
HAVING THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES TRIGGERED WITHIN THIS ZONE
OVERNIGHT BY THESE PROCESSES...AND THE EXPLICIT MODELS QPF LINE
UP AS WELL.

THIS SHEAR AXIS COLLAPSES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
OVER OUR AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT
AN ALMOST NORMAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE STATE...FINALLY NO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF...AN
A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE MOVING ASHORE FROM BOTH COASTS OF THE
PENINSULA. MUCH LIKE A TYPICAL AUGUST DAY...THE SEA-BREEZES WILL
SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM
THE COAST DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND...IS THAT SOIL MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH. THE SUN WORKING ITS
EVAPORATIVE INFLUENCES ON THESE SOILS WILL ADD TO THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE. THEREFORE...STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CONVECTION
SHOULD NOT BE (AND IS NOT FORECAST TO BE) WIDESPREAD...BUT ANY
LOCATION THAT SEES A STORM DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO COULD LOCALLY
RENEW FLOODING CONCERNS. ALL THIS IS YET ANOTHER REASON TO GIVE
THE FLOOD WATCH ONE MORE DAY...AND HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RETURN MORE TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THIS HAZARD
POTENTIAL TO BE EXPIRED. HANG IN THERE...OTHER THAN THE RIVERS
(WHICH STILL HAVE A AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF IMPACTS)...THINGS LOOK
AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE IMPROVING.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE UNUSUAL WET
PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF FLORIDA TO REGAIN STRENGTH AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD PUTTING US BACK IN A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE SCENARIO TO
SET UP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS ITS POSITION BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK RIDGING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SO ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS...BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE OVERNIGHT AROUND
KPIE/KTPA...AND THEN A SCATTERING OF MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN FOR MANY DAYS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS MORE DIURNAL AND SCATTERED NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LONG DURATION RAINFALL RECENTLY SEEN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER STAY VERY HIGH PREVENTING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FROM APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ACTIVE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE TAMPA BAY
AREA WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND URBAN AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN
PASCO...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.
THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO
FLOOD WATERS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TODAYS HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT WITH
MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED.  THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  78  90 /  30  30  10  40
FMY  75  92  76  93 /  20  40  40  40
GIF  73  91  76  94 /  20  40  40  50
SRQ  77  88  76  90 /  20  30  10  20
BKV  75  89  72  92 /  30  40  30  50
SPG  77  89  79  90 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTBW 040125
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
925 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. DEEP TROUGHING IS MOVING ASHORE
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY
SHARP RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND THEN FINALLY
FOLLOWED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIVING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST STATES
AND DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR LOCAL AREA
RESIDES WITHIN A LESS DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID-LEVELS STILL LEFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DURING THE PAST 24 TO
30 HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE THIS PV ANOMALY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING NE FLORIDA AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
TO OUR SOUTH...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
TOWARD AN EVENTUAL POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MIDWEEK.

ON RADAR...THINGS CERTAINLY HAVE IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
LARGE EXPANSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT SOAKED MUCH OF WEST-
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON QUICKLY DISSIPATED
AFTER 18Z...AND TRENDED WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER
VORTICITY CENTER. RENEWED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ORGANIZED DURING
THE EVENING OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
INTO LEVY COUNTY AS OF 8-9 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT
OF LOWER LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 300-305K SURFACES WITHIN THE SHEAR AXIS TRAILING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW CENTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE CONTINUE TO LOOSE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS POINT GOING FORWARD. FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...WE DO NOT HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS STILL OVER THE FAR NORTHERN NATURE
COAST ZONES...AND THEN LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE NOTHING
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH
UP...JUST IN CASE. NAM/RAP BOTH SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF LOW LEVEL
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST RELATED TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE DEPARTING GRADIENT OF THE LOW AND THE
REBOUNDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SCT SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD
WATCH ZONES...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE...AT THIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MOST RELIABLE PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE
HAVING THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES TRIGGERED WITHIN THIS ZONE
OVERNIGHT BY THESE PROCESSES...AND THE EXPLICIT MODELS QPF LINE
UP AS WELL.

THIS SHEAR AXIS COLLAPSES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
OVER OUR AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT
AN ALMOST NORMAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE STATE...FINALLY NO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF...AN
A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE MOVING ASHORE FROM BOTH COASTS OF THE
PENINSULA. MUCH LIKE A TYPICAL AUGUST DAY...THE SEA-BREEZES WILL
SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM
THE COAST DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND...IS THAT SOIL MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH. THE SUN WORKING ITS
EVAPORATIVE INFLUENCES ON THESE SOILS WILL ADD TO THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE. THEREFORE...STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CONVECTION
SHOULD NOT BE (AND IS NOT FORECAST TO BE) WIDESPREAD...BUT ANY
LOCATION THAT SEES A STORM DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO COULD LOCALLY
RENEW FLOODING CONCERNS. ALL THIS IS YET ANOTHER REASON TO GIVE
THE FLOOD WATCH ONE MORE DAY...AND HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RETURN MORE TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THIS HAZARD
POTENTIAL TO BE EXPIRED. HANG IN THERE...OTHER THAN THE RIVERS
(WHICH STILL HAVE A AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF IMPACTS)...THINGS LOOK
AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE IMPROVING.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE UNUSUAL WET
PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF FLORIDA TO REGAIN STRENGTH AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD PUTTING US BACK IN A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE SCENARIO TO
SET UP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS ITS POSITION BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK RIDGING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SO ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS...BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE OVERNIGHT AROUND
KPIE/KTPA...AND THEN A SCATTERING OF MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN FOR MANY DAYS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS MORE DIURNAL AND SCATTERED NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LONG DURATION RAINFALL RECENTLY SEEN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER STAY VERY HIGH PREVENTING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FROM APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ACTIVE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE TAMPA BAY
AREA WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND URBAN AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN
PASCO...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.
THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO
FLOOD WATERS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TODAYS HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT WITH
MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED.  THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  78  90 /  30  30  10  40
FMY  75  92  76  93 /  20  40  40  40
GIF  73  91  76  94 /  20  40  40  50
SRQ  77  88  76  90 /  20  30  10  20
BKV  75  89  72  92 /  30  40  30  50
SPG  77  89  79  90 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING



000
FXUS62 KMLB 040035
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
835 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION..
CURRENT-TONIGHT...EVENING STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL PROGRESS SWD INTO LAKE GEORGE...NORTH
VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO MOVE QUITE SLOW AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A VICTIM OF
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATIONS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE MAKING WAY TOO
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. A SPOTTY LATE EVENING SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...WITH MINS IN
THE L-M70S. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE FOR MENTIONABLE PCPN NORTH
SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE OUTER MARIEN AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KLEE-KDAB....COULD
PRODUCE OCNL MVFR VSBYS FROM THROUGH 04/03Z. THEN BECOMING VFR
AREAWIDE INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) LOW PRESSURE
TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD
WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NWD TO NEAR LAKE OKEE BY WED. WL HOLD
ONTO THE OUTER WATER CAUTION STMT OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH
SEGMENTS DUE TO GRADIENT NR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NR GA CST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB



000
FXUS62 KMLB 040035
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
835 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION..
CURRENT-TONIGHT...EVENING STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL PROGRESS SWD INTO LAKE GEORGE...NORTH
VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO MOVE QUITE SLOW AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A VICTIM OF
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATIONS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE MAKING WAY TOO
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. A SPOTTY LATE EVENING SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...WITH MINS IN
THE L-M70S. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE FOR MENTIONABLE PCPN NORTH
SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE OUTER MARIEN AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KLEE-KDAB....COULD
PRODUCE OCNL MVFR VSBYS FROM THROUGH 04/03Z. THEN BECOMING VFR
AREAWIDE INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) LOW PRESSURE
TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD
WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NWD TO NEAR LAKE OKEE BY WED. WL HOLD
ONTO THE OUTER WATER CAUTION STMT OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH
SEGMENTS DUE TO GRADIENT NR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NR GA CST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB




000
FXUS62 KMLB 040035
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
835 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION..
CURRENT-TONIGHT...EVENING STORMS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL PROGRESS SWD INTO LAKE GEORGE...NORTH
VOLUSIA AND LAKE COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO MOVE QUITE SLOW AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A VICTIM OF
NIGHT TIME STABILIZATIONS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE MAKING WAY TOO
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. A SPOTTY LATE EVENING SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE
I-4 CORRIDOR. LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...WITH MINS IN
THE L-M70S. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATE FOR MENTIONABLE PCPN NORTH
SECTIONS AS WELL AS THE OUTER MARIEN AREAS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KLEE-KDAB....COULD
PRODUCE OCNL MVFR VSBYS FROM THROUGH 04/03Z. THEN BECOMING VFR
AREAWIDE INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) LOW PRESSURE
TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD
WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS NWD TO NEAR LAKE OKEE BY WED. WL HOLD
ONTO THE OUTER WATER CAUTION STMT OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTH
SEGMENTS DUE TO GRADIENT NR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE NR GA CST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/MB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 040006
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
806 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
2 AM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA
PSBL BY LATE TUE MRNG...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INLAND OF
TERMINALS. WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT...ELECTED TO NOT INTRODUCE
VCSH FOR ANY SITE EXCEPT KPBI. LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT...THEN SE 10 KTS
OR LESS TUESDAY AFTER SUNRISE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS ROTATION WITHIN STORMS INTERSECTING THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING MFL SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRYING
IN THE MID- LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. ALSO FREEZING LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
H5 TEMPERATURES. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL HELP FACILITATE LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BUILDING IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK SAHARAN DUST LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE ECMWF
CURRENTLY DEPICTS A STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE SAL INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE DRIEST AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE KEYS. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THEN RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM H5
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABORAD GRADUALLY
WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

MARINE... SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  79  90 /  20  40  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  20  30  20  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  92 /  20  30  10  40
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPATED...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 040006
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
806 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
2 AM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA
PSBL BY LATE TUE MRNG...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INLAND OF
TERMINALS. WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT...ELECTED TO NOT INTRODUCE
VCSH FOR ANY SITE EXCEPT KPBI. LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT...THEN SE 10 KTS
OR LESS TUESDAY AFTER SUNRISE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS ROTATION WITHIN STORMS INTERSECTING THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING MFL SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRYING
IN THE MID- LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. ALSO FREEZING LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
H5 TEMPERATURES. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL HELP FACILITATE LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BUILDING IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK SAHARAN DUST LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE ECMWF
CURRENTLY DEPICTS A STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE SAL INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE DRIEST AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE KEYS. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THEN RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM H5
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABORAD GRADUALLY
WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

MARINE... SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  79  90 /  20  40  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  20  30  20  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  92 /  20  30  10  40
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPATED...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 040006
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
806 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
2 AM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA
PSBL BY LATE TUE MRNG...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INLAND OF
TERMINALS. WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT...ELECTED TO NOT INTRODUCE
VCSH FOR ANY SITE EXCEPT KPBI. LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT...THEN SE 10 KTS
OR LESS TUESDAY AFTER SUNRISE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS ROTATION WITHIN STORMS INTERSECTING THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING MFL SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRYING
IN THE MID- LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. ALSO FREEZING LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
H5 TEMPERATURES. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL HELP FACILITATE LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BUILDING IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK SAHARAN DUST LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE ECMWF
CURRENTLY DEPICTS A STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE SAL INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE DRIEST AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE KEYS. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THEN RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM H5
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABORAD GRADUALLY
WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

MARINE... SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  79  90 /  20  40  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  20  30  20  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  92 /  20  30  10  40
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPATED...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 040006
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
806 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
2 AM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA
PSBL BY LATE TUE MRNG...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INLAND OF
TERMINALS. WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT...ELECTED TO NOT INTRODUCE
VCSH FOR ANY SITE EXCEPT KPBI. LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT...THEN SE 10 KTS
OR LESS TUESDAY AFTER SUNRISE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS ROTATION WITHIN STORMS INTERSECTING THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING MFL SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRYING
IN THE MID- LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. ALSO FREEZING LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
H5 TEMPERATURES. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL HELP FACILITATE LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BUILDING IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK SAHARAN DUST LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE ECMWF
CURRENTLY DEPICTS A STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE SAL INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE DRIEST AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE KEYS. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THEN RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM H5
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABORAD GRADUALLY
WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

MARINE... SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  79  90 /  20  40  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  20  30  20  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  92 /  20  30  10  40
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPATED...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KTAE 040000
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front slowly decaying from the Gulf Coast through southeast AL and
central GA. There was a weak surface low centered over southeast
GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed dry, sinking, N-NW
flow aloft over our area, and this dry air has dropped from the
18k to the 10k ft level at Tallahassee since 8 am EDT. Although
the boundary layer remained conditionally unstable and moist, the
dry air aloft appeared to be taking its toll on most of today`s
deep moist updrafts, and we expect nearly all of the storms to end
shortly after sunset. W-SW winds were higher than earlier
guidance, and we have adjusted the forecast to account for this.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Tuesday] Isolated TSRA will diminish after sunset.
Generally VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday, but for a
brief period of MVFR cigs possible at KVLD around dawn. Isolated
to scattered TSRA will develop Tuesday afternoon, more numerous
south and east of KTLH.

&&

.Prev Discussion [350 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

As the weak surface low lifts northeastward into the Carolina`s
Tuesday, the subtropical ridge will begin to build back westward
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This will swing boundary layer winds around to the south to
southwest bringing an increase in low level moisture back to the
region. However, time height cross sections and forecast soundings
show dry air continuing in the mid levels one more day before deep
layer moisture begins to return on Wednesday. Trimmed PoPs back a
bit on Tuesday showing 30% for the Florida zones and lower tier GA
zones with 10-20% elsewhere. Then, scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) for all zones on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the warmer side during the
short term period with highs mainly in the mid 90s inland, with a
few spots possibly in the upper 90s, particularly across Southern
Alabama and Southwest Georgia.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Model guidance continues to show the next storm system moving
into the Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching
the region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north
of the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday
through the end of the period. High temperatures late in the long
term period will drop back into the lower 90s as convection
increases.


.Marine...

After tonight, winds and seas should remain below advisory levels at
least through the end of the work week, as high pressure builds
back over the local waters.


.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...

The Southeast Florida Big Bend is still recovering from heavy
rainfall over the weekend. Areal flooding across Dixie and Taylor
Counties will gradually subside over the next couple of days. The
Steinhatchee River is in the process of cresting at the gage just
north of US-19 around 15.7 feet. The river will remain above flood
stage through Tuesday. Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  96  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  40  20
Panama City   79  90  79  90  79 /  10  30  20  30  20
Dothan        74  97  74  95  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
Albany        74  97  74  94  75 /  10  20  20  30  20
Valdosta      74  95  76  95  74 /  30  30  30  40  20
Cross City    76  91  76  91  75 /  30  30  30  40  20
Apalachicola  79  90  79  88  78 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY/GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/MCDERMOTT




000
FXUS62 KTAE 040000
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front slowly decaying from the Gulf Coast through southeast AL and
central GA. There was a weak surface low centered over southeast
GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed dry, sinking, N-NW
flow aloft over our area, and this dry air has dropped from the
18k to the 10k ft level at Tallahassee since 8 am EDT. Although
the boundary layer remained conditionally unstable and moist, the
dry air aloft appeared to be taking its toll on most of today`s
deep moist updrafts, and we expect nearly all of the storms to end
shortly after sunset. W-SW winds were higher than earlier
guidance, and we have adjusted the forecast to account for this.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Tuesday] Isolated TSRA will diminish after sunset.
Generally VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday, but for a
brief period of MVFR cigs possible at KVLD around dawn. Isolated
to scattered TSRA will develop Tuesday afternoon, more numerous
south and east of KTLH.

&&

.Prev Discussion [350 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

As the weak surface low lifts northeastward into the Carolina`s
Tuesday, the subtropical ridge will begin to build back westward
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This will swing boundary layer winds around to the south to
southwest bringing an increase in low level moisture back to the
region. However, time height cross sections and forecast soundings
show dry air continuing in the mid levels one more day before deep
layer moisture begins to return on Wednesday. Trimmed PoPs back a
bit on Tuesday showing 30% for the Florida zones and lower tier GA
zones with 10-20% elsewhere. Then, scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) for all zones on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the warmer side during the
short term period with highs mainly in the mid 90s inland, with a
few spots possibly in the upper 90s, particularly across Southern
Alabama and Southwest Georgia.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Model guidance continues to show the next storm system moving
into the Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching
the region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north
of the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday
through the end of the period. High temperatures late in the long
term period will drop back into the lower 90s as convection
increases.


.Marine...

After tonight, winds and seas should remain below advisory levels at
least through the end of the work week, as high pressure builds
back over the local waters.


.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...

The Southeast Florida Big Bend is still recovering from heavy
rainfall over the weekend. Areal flooding across Dixie and Taylor
Counties will gradually subside over the next couple of days. The
Steinhatchee River is in the process of cresting at the gage just
north of US-19 around 15.7 feet. The river will remain above flood
stage through Tuesday. Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  96  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  40  20
Panama City   79  90  79  90  79 /  10  30  20  30  20
Dothan        74  97  74  95  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
Albany        74  97  74  94  75 /  10  20  20  30  20
Valdosta      74  95  76  95  74 /  30  30  30  40  20
Cross City    76  91  76  91  75 /  30  30  30  40  20
Apalachicola  79  90  79  88  78 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY/GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/MCDERMOTT



000
FXUS62 KTAE 040000
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front slowly decaying from the Gulf Coast through southeast AL and
central GA. There was a weak surface low centered over southeast
GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed dry, sinking, N-NW
flow aloft over our area, and this dry air has dropped from the
18k to the 10k ft level at Tallahassee since 8 am EDT. Although
the boundary layer remained conditionally unstable and moist, the
dry air aloft appeared to be taking its toll on most of today`s
deep moist updrafts, and we expect nearly all of the storms to end
shortly after sunset. W-SW winds were higher than earlier
guidance, and we have adjusted the forecast to account for this.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Tuesday] Isolated TSRA will diminish after sunset.
Generally VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday, but for a
brief period of MVFR cigs possible at KVLD around dawn. Isolated
to scattered TSRA will develop Tuesday afternoon, more numerous
south and east of KTLH.

&&

.Prev Discussion [350 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

As the weak surface low lifts northeastward into the Carolina`s
Tuesday, the subtropical ridge will begin to build back westward
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This will swing boundary layer winds around to the south to
southwest bringing an increase in low level moisture back to the
region. However, time height cross sections and forecast soundings
show dry air continuing in the mid levels one more day before deep
layer moisture begins to return on Wednesday. Trimmed PoPs back a
bit on Tuesday showing 30% for the Florida zones and lower tier GA
zones with 10-20% elsewhere. Then, scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) for all zones on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the warmer side during the
short term period with highs mainly in the mid 90s inland, with a
few spots possibly in the upper 90s, particularly across Southern
Alabama and Southwest Georgia.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Model guidance continues to show the next storm system moving
into the Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching
the region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north
of the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday
through the end of the period. High temperatures late in the long
term period will drop back into the lower 90s as convection
increases.


.Marine...

After tonight, winds and seas should remain below advisory levels at
least through the end of the work week, as high pressure builds
back over the local waters.


.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...

The Southeast Florida Big Bend is still recovering from heavy
rainfall over the weekend. Areal flooding across Dixie and Taylor
Counties will gradually subside over the next couple of days. The
Steinhatchee River is in the process of cresting at the gage just
north of US-19 around 15.7 feet. The river will remain above flood
stage through Tuesday. Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  96  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  40  20
Panama City   79  90  79  90  79 /  10  30  20  30  20
Dothan        74  97  74  95  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
Albany        74  97  74  94  75 /  10  20  20  30  20
Valdosta      74  95  76  95  74 /  30  30  30  40  20
Cross City    76  91  76  91  75 /  30  30  30  40  20
Apalachicola  79  90  79  88  78 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY/GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/MCDERMOTT



000
FXUS62 KTAE 040000
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a quasi-stationary
front slowly decaying from the Gulf Coast through southeast AL and
central GA. There was a weak surface low centered over southeast
GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed dry, sinking, N-NW
flow aloft over our area, and this dry air has dropped from the
18k to the 10k ft level at Tallahassee since 8 am EDT. Although
the boundary layer remained conditionally unstable and moist, the
dry air aloft appeared to be taking its toll on most of today`s
deep moist updrafts, and we expect nearly all of the storms to end
shortly after sunset. W-SW winds were higher than earlier
guidance, and we have adjusted the forecast to account for this.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Tuesday] Isolated TSRA will diminish after sunset.
Generally VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday, but for a
brief period of MVFR cigs possible at KVLD around dawn. Isolated
to scattered TSRA will develop Tuesday afternoon, more numerous
south and east of KTLH.

&&

.Prev Discussion [350 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

As the weak surface low lifts northeastward into the Carolina`s
Tuesday, the subtropical ridge will begin to build back westward
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This will swing boundary layer winds around to the south to
southwest bringing an increase in low level moisture back to the
region. However, time height cross sections and forecast soundings
show dry air continuing in the mid levels one more day before deep
layer moisture begins to return on Wednesday. Trimmed PoPs back a
bit on Tuesday showing 30% for the Florida zones and lower tier GA
zones with 10-20% elsewhere. Then, scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) for all zones on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the warmer side during the
short term period with highs mainly in the mid 90s inland, with a
few spots possibly in the upper 90s, particularly across Southern
Alabama and Southwest Georgia.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Model guidance continues to show the next storm system moving
into the Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching
the region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north
of the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday
through the end of the period. High temperatures late in the long
term period will drop back into the lower 90s as convection
increases.


.Marine...

After tonight, winds and seas should remain below advisory levels at
least through the end of the work week, as high pressure builds
back over the local waters.


.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...

The Southeast Florida Big Bend is still recovering from heavy
rainfall over the weekend. Areal flooding across Dixie and Taylor
Counties will gradually subside over the next couple of days. The
Steinhatchee River is in the process of cresting at the gage just
north of US-19 around 15.7 feet. The river will remain above flood
stage through Tuesday. Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  96  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  40  20
Panama City   79  90  79  90  79 /  10  30  20  30  20
Dothan        74  97  74  95  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
Albany        74  97  74  94  75 /  10  20  20  30  20
Valdosta      74  95  76  95  74 /  30  30  30  40  20
Cross City    76  91  76  91  75 /  30  30  30  40  20
Apalachicola  79  90  79  88  78 /  10  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY/GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/MCDERMOTT




000
FXUS62 KTBW 032051
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
451 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. DEEP TROUGHING IS MOVING ASHORE
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY
SHARP RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND THEN FINALLY
FOLLOWED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIVING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST STATES
AND DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR LOCAL AREA
RESIDES WITHIN A LESS DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID-LEVELS STILL LEFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE THIS PV ANOMALY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE FLORIDA IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GA/CAROLINA COASTLINE. TO OUR
SOUTH...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE FIRST SIGNS OF SHIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD AN EVENTUAL POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK.

ON RADAR...THINGS CERTAINLY ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY
DID JUST A FEW HOURS AGO. THE LARGE EXPANSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN THAT SOAKED MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND TRENDED WELL OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER VORTICITY CENTER. WE ARE SEEING SOME
RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY UP TOWARD WESTERN CITRUS/NORTHERN SUMTER
COUNTY AS OF 4 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOWER
LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
THE 300-305K SURFACES WITHIN THE SHEAR AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW CENTER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR
MULTIPLE RUNS...BUT IS FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND COAST AND
ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TOTALS THAN THE TRENDS WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL UPDATE RAIN
CHANCES FOR LEVY/CITRUS SHOULD THE DEVELOPMENT THE HRRR IS SHOWING
JUST BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED. EITHER WAY...THE WORST SEEMS TO BE OVER
FOR MOST PLACES...AND OTHER THAN A FEW SCT SHOWERS THE REST OF THE
EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS GOING TO BE QUITE LIMITED.
HOPEFULLY WE CAN LET THE DRYING OUT PROCESS BEGUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ARE LOOSING THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS POINT GOING FORWARD. FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN A WHILE...WE DO NOT HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCT SHOWERS ARE STILL
GOING TO BE A POSSIBILITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NOTHING
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH
UP...JUST IN CASE. NAM/RAP BOTH SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF LOW LEVEL
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST RELATED TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE DEPARTING GRADIENT OF THE LOW AND THE
REBOUNDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SCT OF SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD
WATCH ZONES...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE...AT THIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MOST RELIABLE PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE
HAVING THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES TRIGGERED WITHIN THIS ZONE
OVERNIGHT...AND THE EXPLICIT MODEL QPF LINES UP AS WELL.

THIS SHEAR AXIS COLLAPSES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
OVER OUR AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT
AN ALMOST NORMAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST...WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE STATE...NO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF...AN A FEEBLE SEA-
BREEZE MOVING ASHORE FROM BOTH COASTS OF THE PENINSULA. MUCH LIKE
A TYPICAL AUGUST DAY...THE SEA-BREEZES WILL SUPPORT A SCATTERING
OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND...IS THAT SOIL
MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH. THE SUN WORKING IT EVAPORATIVE INFLUENCES
ON THESE SOILS WILL ADD TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND OVERALL
SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE (AND IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE) WIDESPREAD...BUT ANY LOCATION THAT SEES A STORM
DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO COULD LOCALLY RENEW FLOODING CONCERNS.
ALL THIS IS YET ANOTHER REASON TO GIVE THE FLOOD WATCH ONE MORE
DAY...AND HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN MORE TOWARD
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THIS HAZARD POTENTIAL TO BE
EXPIRED. HANG IN THERE...OTHER THAN THE RIVERS (WHICH STILL HAVE A
AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF IMPACTS)...THINGS LOOK AS THROUGH THEY
WILL BE IMPROVING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE UNUSUAL WET
PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF FLORIDA TO REGAIN STRENGTH AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD PUTTING US BACK IN A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE SCENARIO TO
SET UP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS ITS POSITION BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK RIDGING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SO ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS...BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AROUND KPIE/KTPA...AND
THEN A SCATTERING OF MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE TAMPA
BAY WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN FOR MANY DAYS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS MORE DIURNAL AND SCATTERED NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LONG DURATION RAINFALL RECENTLY SEEN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER STAY VERY HIGH PREVENTING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FROM APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ACTIVE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE TAMPA BAY
AREA WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND URBAN AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN
PASCO...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.
THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO
FLOOD WATERS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TODAYS HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT WITH
MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED.  THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  78  90 /  30  30  10  40
FMY  75  92  76  93 /  20  40  40  40
GIF  73  91  76  94 /  20  40  40  50
SRQ  77  88  76  90 /  20  30  10  20
BKV  75  89  72  92 /  40  40  30  50
SPG  77  89  79  90 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...WYNN
MARINE...OGLESBY/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING/LAMARRE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 032051
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
451 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. DEEP TROUGHING IS MOVING ASHORE
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY
SHARP RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND THEN FINALLY
FOLLOWED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIVING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST STATES
AND DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR LOCAL AREA
RESIDES WITHIN A LESS DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID-LEVELS STILL LEFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE THIS PV ANOMALY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE FLORIDA IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GA/CAROLINA COASTLINE. TO OUR
SOUTH...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE FIRST SIGNS OF SHIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD AN EVENTUAL POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK.

ON RADAR...THINGS CERTAINLY ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY
DID JUST A FEW HOURS AGO. THE LARGE EXPANSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN THAT SOAKED MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND TRENDED WELL OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER VORTICITY CENTER. WE ARE SEEING SOME
RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY UP TOWARD WESTERN CITRUS/NORTHERN SUMTER
COUNTY AS OF 4 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOWER
LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
THE 300-305K SURFACES WITHIN THE SHEAR AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW CENTER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR
MULTIPLE RUNS...BUT IS FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND COAST AND
ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TOTALS THAN THE TRENDS WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL UPDATE RAIN
CHANCES FOR LEVY/CITRUS SHOULD THE DEVELOPMENT THE HRRR IS SHOWING
JUST BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED. EITHER WAY...THE WORST SEEMS TO BE OVER
FOR MOST PLACES...AND OTHER THAN A FEW SCT SHOWERS THE REST OF THE
EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS GOING TO BE QUITE LIMITED.
HOPEFULLY WE CAN LET THE DRYING OUT PROCESS BEGUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ARE LOOSING THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS POINT GOING FORWARD. FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN A WHILE...WE DO NOT HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCT SHOWERS ARE STILL
GOING TO BE A POSSIBILITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NOTHING
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH
UP...JUST IN CASE. NAM/RAP BOTH SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF LOW LEVEL
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST RELATED TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE DEPARTING GRADIENT OF THE LOW AND THE
REBOUNDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SCT OF SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD
WATCH ZONES...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE...AT THIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MOST RELIABLE PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE
HAVING THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES TRIGGERED WITHIN THIS ZONE
OVERNIGHT...AND THE EXPLICIT MODEL QPF LINES UP AS WELL.

THIS SHEAR AXIS COLLAPSES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
OVER OUR AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT
AN ALMOST NORMAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST...WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE STATE...NO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF...AN A FEEBLE SEA-
BREEZE MOVING ASHORE FROM BOTH COASTS OF THE PENINSULA. MUCH LIKE
A TYPICAL AUGUST DAY...THE SEA-BREEZES WILL SUPPORT A SCATTERING
OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND...IS THAT SOIL
MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH. THE SUN WORKING IT EVAPORATIVE INFLUENCES
ON THESE SOILS WILL ADD TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND OVERALL
SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE (AND IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE) WIDESPREAD...BUT ANY LOCATION THAT SEES A STORM
DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO COULD LOCALLY RENEW FLOODING CONCERNS.
ALL THIS IS YET ANOTHER REASON TO GIVE THE FLOOD WATCH ONE MORE
DAY...AND HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN MORE TOWARD
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THIS HAZARD POTENTIAL TO BE
EXPIRED. HANG IN THERE...OTHER THAN THE RIVERS (WHICH STILL HAVE A
AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF IMPACTS)...THINGS LOOK AS THROUGH THEY
WILL BE IMPROVING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE UNUSUAL WET
PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF FLORIDA TO REGAIN STRENGTH AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD PUTTING US BACK IN A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE SCENARIO TO
SET UP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS ITS POSITION BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK RIDGING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SO ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS...BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AROUND KPIE/KTPA...AND
THEN A SCATTERING OF MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE TAMPA
BAY WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN FOR MANY DAYS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS MORE DIURNAL AND SCATTERED NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LONG DURATION RAINFALL RECENTLY SEEN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER STAY VERY HIGH PREVENTING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FROM APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ACTIVE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE TAMPA BAY
AREA WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND URBAN AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN
PASCO...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.
THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO
FLOOD WATERS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TODAYS HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT WITH
MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED.  THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  78  90 /  30  30  10  40
FMY  75  92  76  93 /  20  40  40  40
GIF  73  91  76  94 /  20  40  40  50
SRQ  77  88  76  90 /  20  30  10  20
BKV  75  89  72  92 /  40  40  30  50
SPG  77  89  79  90 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...WYNN
MARINE...OGLESBY/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING/LAMARRE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 032051
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
451 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. DEEP TROUGHING IS MOVING ASHORE
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY
SHARP RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND THEN FINALLY
FOLLOWED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIVING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST STATES
AND DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR LOCAL AREA
RESIDES WITHIN A LESS DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID-LEVELS STILL LEFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE THIS PV ANOMALY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE FLORIDA IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GA/CAROLINA COASTLINE. TO OUR
SOUTH...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE FIRST SIGNS OF SHIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD AN EVENTUAL POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK.

ON RADAR...THINGS CERTAINLY ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY
DID JUST A FEW HOURS AGO. THE LARGE EXPANSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN THAT SOAKED MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND TRENDED WELL OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER VORTICITY CENTER. WE ARE SEEING SOME
RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY UP TOWARD WESTERN CITRUS/NORTHERN SUMTER
COUNTY AS OF 4 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOWER
LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
THE 300-305K SURFACES WITHIN THE SHEAR AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW CENTER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR
MULTIPLE RUNS...BUT IS FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND COAST AND
ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TOTALS THAN THE TRENDS WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL UPDATE RAIN
CHANCES FOR LEVY/CITRUS SHOULD THE DEVELOPMENT THE HRRR IS SHOWING
JUST BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED. EITHER WAY...THE WORST SEEMS TO BE OVER
FOR MOST PLACES...AND OTHER THAN A FEW SCT SHOWERS THE REST OF THE
EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS GOING TO BE QUITE LIMITED.
HOPEFULLY WE CAN LET THE DRYING OUT PROCESS BEGUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ARE LOOSING THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS POINT GOING FORWARD. FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN A WHILE...WE DO NOT HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCT SHOWERS ARE STILL
GOING TO BE A POSSIBILITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NOTHING
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH
UP...JUST IN CASE. NAM/RAP BOTH SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF LOW LEVEL
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST RELATED TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE DEPARTING GRADIENT OF THE LOW AND THE
REBOUNDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SCT OF SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD
WATCH ZONES...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE...AT THIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MOST RELIABLE PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE
HAVING THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES TRIGGERED WITHIN THIS ZONE
OVERNIGHT...AND THE EXPLICIT MODEL QPF LINES UP AS WELL.

THIS SHEAR AXIS COLLAPSES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
OVER OUR AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT
AN ALMOST NORMAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST...WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE STATE...NO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF...AN A FEEBLE SEA-
BREEZE MOVING ASHORE FROM BOTH COASTS OF THE PENINSULA. MUCH LIKE
A TYPICAL AUGUST DAY...THE SEA-BREEZES WILL SUPPORT A SCATTERING
OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND...IS THAT SOIL
MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH. THE SUN WORKING IT EVAPORATIVE INFLUENCES
ON THESE SOILS WILL ADD TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND OVERALL
SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE (AND IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE) WIDESPREAD...BUT ANY LOCATION THAT SEES A STORM
DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO COULD LOCALLY RENEW FLOODING CONCERNS.
ALL THIS IS YET ANOTHER REASON TO GIVE THE FLOOD WATCH ONE MORE
DAY...AND HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN MORE TOWARD
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THIS HAZARD POTENTIAL TO BE
EXPIRED. HANG IN THERE...OTHER THAN THE RIVERS (WHICH STILL HAVE A
AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF IMPACTS)...THINGS LOOK AS THROUGH THEY
WILL BE IMPROVING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE UNUSUAL WET
PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF FLORIDA TO REGAIN STRENGTH AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD PUTTING US BACK IN A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE SCENARIO TO
SET UP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS ITS POSITION BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK RIDGING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SO ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS...BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AROUND KPIE/KTPA...AND
THEN A SCATTERING OF MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE TAMPA
BAY WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN FOR MANY DAYS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS MORE DIURNAL AND SCATTERED NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LONG DURATION RAINFALL RECENTLY SEEN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER STAY VERY HIGH PREVENTING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FROM APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ACTIVE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE TAMPA BAY
AREA WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND URBAN AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN
PASCO...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.
THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO
FLOOD WATERS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TODAYS HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT WITH
MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED.  THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  78  90 /  30  30  10  40
FMY  75  92  76  93 /  20  40  40  40
GIF  73  91  76  94 /  20  40  40  50
SRQ  77  88  76  90 /  20  30  10  20
BKV  75  89  72  92 /  40  40  30  50
SPG  77  89  79  90 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...WYNN
MARINE...OGLESBY/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING/LAMARRE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 032051
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
451 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. DEEP TROUGHING IS MOVING ASHORE
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY
SHARP RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND THEN FINALLY
FOLLOWED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIVING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST STATES
AND DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR LOCAL AREA
RESIDES WITHIN A LESS DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID-LEVELS STILL LEFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE THIS PV ANOMALY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE FLORIDA IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GA/CAROLINA COASTLINE. TO OUR
SOUTH...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE FIRST SIGNS OF SHIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD AN EVENTUAL POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK.

ON RADAR...THINGS CERTAINLY ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY
DID JUST A FEW HOURS AGO. THE LARGE EXPANSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN THAT SOAKED MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND TRENDED WELL OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER VORTICITY CENTER. WE ARE SEEING SOME
RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY UP TOWARD WESTERN CITRUS/NORTHERN SUMTER
COUNTY AS OF 4 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOWER
LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
THE 300-305K SURFACES WITHIN THE SHEAR AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW CENTER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR
MULTIPLE RUNS...BUT IS FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND COAST AND
ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TOTALS THAN THE TRENDS WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL UPDATE RAIN
CHANCES FOR LEVY/CITRUS SHOULD THE DEVELOPMENT THE HRRR IS SHOWING
JUST BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED. EITHER WAY...THE WORST SEEMS TO BE OVER
FOR MOST PLACES...AND OTHER THAN A FEW SCT SHOWERS THE REST OF THE
EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS GOING TO BE QUITE LIMITED.
HOPEFULLY WE CAN LET THE DRYING OUT PROCESS BEGUN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ARE LOOSING THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS POINT GOING FORWARD. FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN A WHILE...WE DO NOT HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCT SHOWERS ARE STILL
GOING TO BE A POSSIBILITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NOTHING
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH
UP...JUST IN CASE. NAM/RAP BOTH SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF LOW LEVEL
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST RELATED TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE DEPARTING GRADIENT OF THE LOW AND THE
REBOUNDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SCT OF SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD
WATCH ZONES...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE...AT THIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MOST RELIABLE PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE
HAVING THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES TRIGGERED WITHIN THIS ZONE
OVERNIGHT...AND THE EXPLICIT MODEL QPF LINES UP AS WELL.

THIS SHEAR AXIS COLLAPSES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
OVER OUR AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT
AN ALMOST NORMAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST...WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE STATE...NO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF...AN A FEEBLE SEA-
BREEZE MOVING ASHORE FROM BOTH COASTS OF THE PENINSULA. MUCH LIKE
A TYPICAL AUGUST DAY...THE SEA-BREEZES WILL SUPPORT A SCATTERING
OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND...IS THAT SOIL
MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH. THE SUN WORKING IT EVAPORATIVE INFLUENCES
ON THESE SOILS WILL ADD TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND OVERALL
SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE (AND IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE) WIDESPREAD...BUT ANY LOCATION THAT SEES A STORM
DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO COULD LOCALLY RENEW FLOODING CONCERNS.
ALL THIS IS YET ANOTHER REASON TO GIVE THE FLOOD WATCH ONE MORE
DAY...AND HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN MORE TOWARD
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THIS HAZARD POTENTIAL TO BE
EXPIRED. HANG IN THERE...OTHER THAN THE RIVERS (WHICH STILL HAVE A
AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF IMPACTS)...THINGS LOOK AS THROUGH THEY
WILL BE IMPROVING.

&&

.LONG TERM...
.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE UNUSUAL WET
PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF FLORIDA TO REGAIN STRENGTH AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD PUTTING US BACK IN A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE SCENARIO TO
SET UP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS ITS POSITION BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK RIDGING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SO ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS...BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AROUND KPIE/KTPA...AND
THEN A SCATTERING OF MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE TAMPA
BAY WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN FOR MANY DAYS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS MORE DIURNAL AND SCATTERED NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LONG DURATION RAINFALL RECENTLY SEEN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER STAY VERY HIGH PREVENTING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FROM APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...ACTIVE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE TAMPA BAY
AREA WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND URBAN AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN
PASCO...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.
THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO
FLOOD WATERS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TODAYS HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT WITH
MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED.  THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  89  78  90 /  30  30  10  40
FMY  75  92  76  93 /  20  40  40  40
GIF  73  91  76  94 /  20  40  40  50
SRQ  77  88  76  90 /  20  30  10  20
BKV  75  89  72  92 /  40  40  30  50
SPG  77  89  79  90 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...WYNN
MARINE...OGLESBY/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING/LAMARRE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 032000
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS ROTATION WITHIN STORMS INTERSECTING THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING MFL SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRYING
IN THE MID- LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. ALSO FREEZING LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
H5 TEMPERATURES. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL HELP FACILITATE LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BUILDING IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK SAHARAN DUST LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE ECMWF
CURRENTLY DEPICTS A STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE SAL INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE DRIEST AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE KEYS. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THEN RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM H5
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABORAD GRADUALLY
WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. AN OUTFLOW OBSERVABLE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA MAY TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE AND HOW STRONG. SO
FOR NOW LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS BUT MAY HAVE TO
AMEND IF DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHENS OR BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE FLOW IS NEARLY DUE SOUTH BUT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL
POSSIBLY KEEP DIRECTION FROM THE SSE AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS.

KOB

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH
DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  79  90 /  30  40  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  30  30  20  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  92 /  30  30  10  40
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 032000
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS ROTATION WITHIN STORMS INTERSECTING THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING MFL SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRYING
IN THE MID- LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. ALSO FREEZING LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
H5 TEMPERATURES. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL HELP FACILITATE LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BUILDING IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK SAHARAN DUST LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE ECMWF
CURRENTLY DEPICTS A STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE SAL INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE DRIEST AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE KEYS. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THEN RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM H5
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABORAD GRADUALLY
WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. AN OUTFLOW OBSERVABLE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA MAY TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE AND HOW STRONG. SO
FOR NOW LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS BUT MAY HAVE TO
AMEND IF DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHENS OR BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE FLOW IS NEARLY DUE SOUTH BUT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL
POSSIBLY KEEP DIRECTION FROM THE SSE AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS.

KOB

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH
DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  79  90 /  30  40  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  30  30  20  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  92 /  30  30  10  40
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMLB 031952
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION..

CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WON OUT BIG TIME TODAY...
INHIBITING SFC HEATING A FEW DEGS MORE THAN FCST WAS ADJUSTED
FOR...AND PRETTY MUCH SQUASHING DIURNAL CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED TO LCLY SCATTERED LIGHT-MDT SHOWERS. COULD SEE A LITTLE
REGENERATION THROUGH SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF WEAK
RESIDUAL ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVG...BUT ACTIVITY WON`T BE
TOO INTENSE. A SPOTTY LATE EVENING SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN CWA...BUT DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...WITH MINS IN THE L-M70S.

TUE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST/WEAKENS AS
IT SLIDES ALONG OR MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHC
50 PCT OVER THE FAR NORTH AND 40 PCT ELSEWHERE.

WED...SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH TO NEAR LAKE AS WEAK LOW MOVES WELL
AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY WITH A MORE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES. FLOW NOT AS BACKED
AS PREV ADVERTISED AND AS SUCH WENT WITH UNIFORM 40 POPS ALL AREAS.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KISM-KTIX....COULD PRODUCE
OCNL MVFR VSBYS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA
COAST TUE MORNING WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS NWD TO NEAR LAKE OKEE BY WED. WINDS OUT OF THE SW WILL BECOME
S-SSW WITH ONSHORE BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CIRC. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SEAS 2-4FT...
SUBSIDING TO 1-3FT

THU-SAT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  40
MCO  73  91  74  92 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  73  91  74  89 /  20  40  20  40
VRB  71  91  73  90 /  20  40  20  40
LEE  74  89  75  92 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  74  91  75  92 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  91  75  92 /  20  40  20  40
FPR  72  91  73  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES




000
FXUS62 KMLB 031952
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION..

CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WON OUT BIG TIME TODAY...
INHIBITING SFC HEATING A FEW DEGS MORE THAN FCST WAS ADJUSTED
FOR...AND PRETTY MUCH SQUASHING DIURNAL CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED TO LCLY SCATTERED LIGHT-MDT SHOWERS. COULD SEE A LITTLE
REGENERATION THROUGH SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF WEAK
RESIDUAL ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVG...BUT ACTIVITY WON`T BE
TOO INTENSE. A SPOTTY LATE EVENING SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN CWA...BUT DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...WITH MINS IN THE L-M70S.

TUE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST/WEAKENS AS
IT SLIDES ALONG OR MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHC
50 PCT OVER THE FAR NORTH AND 40 PCT ELSEWHERE.

WED...SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH TO NEAR LAKE AS WEAK LOW MOVES WELL
AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY WITH A MORE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES. FLOW NOT AS BACKED
AS PREV ADVERTISED AND AS SUCH WENT WITH UNIFORM 40 POPS ALL AREAS.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KISM-KTIX....COULD PRODUCE
OCNL MVFR VSBYS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA
COAST TUE MORNING WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS NWD TO NEAR LAKE OKEE BY WED. WINDS OUT OF THE SW WILL BECOME
S-SSW WITH ONSHORE BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CIRC. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SEAS 2-4FT...
SUBSIDING TO 1-3FT

THU-SAT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  40
MCO  73  91  74  92 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  73  91  74  89 /  20  40  20  40
VRB  71  91  73  90 /  20  40  20  40
LEE  74  89  75  92 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  74  91  75  92 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  91  75  92 /  20  40  20  40
FPR  72  91  73  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES




000
FXUS62 KMLB 031952
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION..

CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WON OUT BIG TIME TODAY...
INHIBITING SFC HEATING A FEW DEGS MORE THAN FCST WAS ADJUSTED
FOR...AND PRETTY MUCH SQUASHING DIURNAL CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED TO LCLY SCATTERED LIGHT-MDT SHOWERS. COULD SEE A LITTLE
REGENERATION THROUGH SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF WEAK
RESIDUAL ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVG...BUT ACTIVITY WON`T BE
TOO INTENSE. A SPOTTY LATE EVENING SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN CWA...BUT DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...WITH MINS IN THE L-M70S.

TUE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST/WEAKENS AS
IT SLIDES ALONG OR MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHC
50 PCT OVER THE FAR NORTH AND 40 PCT ELSEWHERE.

WED...SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH TO NEAR LAKE AS WEAK LOW MOVES WELL
AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY WITH A MORE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES. FLOW NOT AS BACKED
AS PREV ADVERTISED AND AS SUCH WENT WITH UNIFORM 40 POPS ALL AREAS.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KISM-KTIX....COULD PRODUCE
OCNL MVFR VSBYS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA
COAST TUE MORNING WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS NWD TO NEAR LAKE OKEE BY WED. WINDS OUT OF THE SW WILL BECOME
S-SSW WITH ONSHORE BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CIRC. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SEAS 2-4FT...
SUBSIDING TO 1-3FT

THU-SAT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  40
MCO  73  91  74  92 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  73  91  74  89 /  20  40  20  40
VRB  71  91  73  90 /  20  40  20  40
LEE  74  89  75  92 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  74  91  75  92 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  91  75  92 /  20  40  20  40
FPR  72  91  73  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES




000
FXUS62 KMLB 031952
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION..

CURRENT-TONIGHT...THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WON OUT BIG TIME TODAY...
INHIBITING SFC HEATING A FEW DEGS MORE THAN FCST WAS ADJUSTED
FOR...AND PRETTY MUCH SQUASHING DIURNAL CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR
ISOLATED TO LCLY SCATTERED LIGHT-MDT SHOWERS. COULD SEE A LITTLE
REGENERATION THROUGH SUNSET...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH INVOF WEAK
RESIDUAL ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CONVG...BUT ACTIVITY WON`T BE
TOO INTENSE. A SPOTTY LATE EVENING SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NRN CWA...BUT DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN SOME...WITH MINS IN THE L-M70S.

TUE...SFC LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST/WEAKENS AS
IT SLIDES ALONG OR MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHC
50 PCT OVER THE FAR NORTH AND 40 PCT ELSEWHERE.

WED...SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH TO NEAR LAKE AS WEAK LOW MOVES WELL
AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY WITH A MORE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES. FLOW NOT AS BACKED
AS PREV ADVERTISED AND AS SUCH WENT WITH UNIFORM 40 POPS ALL AREAS.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY SHOWERS...MAINLY N OF KISM-KTIX....COULD PRODUCE
OCNL MVFR VSBYS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA
COAST TUE MORNING WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS
BUILDS NWD TO NEAR LAKE OKEE BY WED. WINDS OUT OF THE SW WILL BECOME
S-SSW WITH ONSHORE BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE CIRC. SPEEDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 15 KT. SEAS 2-4FT...
SUBSIDING TO 1-3FT

THU-SAT...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  90  73  90 /  30  50  20  40
MCO  73  91  74  92 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  73  91  74  89 /  20  40  20  40
VRB  71  91  73  90 /  20  40  20  40
LEE  74  89  75  92 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  74  91  75  92 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  91  75  92 /  20  40  20  40
FPR  72  91  73  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECASTS...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES




000
FXUS62 KTAE 031950
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The large mid/upper eastern CONUS trough will remain in place
through tonight. At the surface, broad low pressure covers north
Florida and south Georgia with a stationary boundary draped through
the Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Convection has remained
offshore for the first part of the day today, with only light
showers just beginning across south-central Georgia. The CU field
this afternoon depicts the east-west moisture gradient across the
Tri-State region. The PoP forecast is similar, with 20-30% along and
east of a line from Albany to Panama City, and 40-50% across the
southeast Big Bend. Expect mostly light to moderate showers today as
storm depth will be capped by dry air above 500mb. The best chance
for thunder will remain across the SE Big Bend and offshore.
Overnight, storms will fill in across the northeast Gulf, and may
impact Dixie and Taylor counties once again. At this time, no more
than a half of an inch is expected in these locations.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

As the weak surface low lifts northeastward into the Carolina`s
Tuesday, the subtropical ridge will begin to build back westward
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This will swing boundary layer winds around to the south to
southwest bringing an increase in low level moisture back to the
region. However, time height cross sections and forecast soundings
show dry air continuing in the mid levels one more day before deep
layer moisture begins to return on Wednesday. Trimmed PoPs back a
bit on Tuesday showing 30% for the Florida zones and lower tier GA
zones with 10-20% elsewhere. Then, scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) for all zones on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the warmer side during the
short term period with highs mainly in the mid 90s inland, with a
few spots possibly in the upper 90s, particularly across Southern
Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Model guidance continues to show the next storm system moving
into the Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching
the region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north
of the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday
through the end of the period. High temperatures late in the long
term period will drop back into the lower 90s as convection
increases.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR will prevail at all terminals for the
duration of the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Now that the surface low has pulled well to the northeast,
winds and seas have dropped below headline criteria and should
remain this way at least through the end of the work week as high
pressure builds back over the local waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Southeast Florida Big Bend is still recovering from heavy
rainfall over the weekend. Areal flooding across Dixie and Taylor
Counties will gradually subside over the next couple of days. The
Steinhatchee River is in the process of cresting at the gage just
north of US-19 around 15.7 feet. The river will remain above flood
stage through Tuesday. Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  96  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  40  20
Panama City   79  90  79  90  79 /  20  30  20  30  20
Dothan        74  97  74  95  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
Albany        74  97  74  94  75 /  20  20  20  30  20
Valdosta      74  95  76  95  74 /  30  30  30  40  20
Cross City    76  91  76  91  75 /  40  30  30  40  20
Apalachicola  79  90  79  88  78 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY/GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/MCDERMOTT



000
FXUS62 KTAE 031950
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The large mid/upper eastern CONUS trough will remain in place
through tonight. At the surface, broad low pressure covers north
Florida and south Georgia with a stationary boundary draped through
the Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Convection has remained
offshore for the first part of the day today, with only light
showers just beginning across south-central Georgia. The CU field
this afternoon depicts the east-west moisture gradient across the
Tri-State region. The PoP forecast is similar, with 20-30% along and
east of a line from Albany to Panama City, and 40-50% across the
southeast Big Bend. Expect mostly light to moderate showers today as
storm depth will be capped by dry air above 500mb. The best chance
for thunder will remain across the SE Big Bend and offshore.
Overnight, storms will fill in across the northeast Gulf, and may
impact Dixie and Taylor counties once again. At this time, no more
than a half of an inch is expected in these locations.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

As the weak surface low lifts northeastward into the Carolina`s
Tuesday, the subtropical ridge will begin to build back westward
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This will swing boundary layer winds around to the south to
southwest bringing an increase in low level moisture back to the
region. However, time height cross sections and forecast soundings
show dry air continuing in the mid levels one more day before deep
layer moisture begins to return on Wednesday. Trimmed PoPs back a
bit on Tuesday showing 30% for the Florida zones and lower tier GA
zones with 10-20% elsewhere. Then, scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) for all zones on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the warmer side during the
short term period with highs mainly in the mid 90s inland, with a
few spots possibly in the upper 90s, particularly across Southern
Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Model guidance continues to show the next storm system moving
into the Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching
the region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north
of the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday
through the end of the period. High temperatures late in the long
term period will drop back into the lower 90s as convection
increases.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR will prevail at all terminals for the
duration of the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Now that the surface low has pulled well to the northeast,
winds and seas have dropped below headline criteria and should
remain this way at least through the end of the work week as high
pressure builds back over the local waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Southeast Florida Big Bend is still recovering from heavy
rainfall over the weekend. Areal flooding across Dixie and Taylor
Counties will gradually subside over the next couple of days. The
Steinhatchee River is in the process of cresting at the gage just
north of US-19 around 15.7 feet. The river will remain above flood
stage through Tuesday. Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  96  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  40  20
Panama City   79  90  79  90  79 /  20  30  20  30  20
Dothan        74  97  74  95  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
Albany        74  97  74  94  75 /  20  20  20  30  20
Valdosta      74  95  76  95  74 /  30  30  30  40  20
Cross City    76  91  76  91  75 /  40  30  30  40  20
Apalachicola  79  90  79  88  78 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY/GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/MCDERMOTT



000
FXUS62 KTAE 031950
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The large mid/upper eastern CONUS trough will remain in place
through tonight. At the surface, broad low pressure covers north
Florida and south Georgia with a stationary boundary draped through
the Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Convection has remained
offshore for the first part of the day today, with only light
showers just beginning across south-central Georgia. The CU field
this afternoon depicts the east-west moisture gradient across the
Tri-State region. The PoP forecast is similar, with 20-30% along and
east of a line from Albany to Panama City, and 40-50% across the
southeast Big Bend. Expect mostly light to moderate showers today as
storm depth will be capped by dry air above 500mb. The best chance
for thunder will remain across the SE Big Bend and offshore.
Overnight, storms will fill in across the northeast Gulf, and may
impact Dixie and Taylor counties once again. At this time, no more
than a half of an inch is expected in these locations.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

As the weak surface low lifts northeastward into the Carolina`s
Tuesday, the subtropical ridge will begin to build back westward
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This will swing boundary layer winds around to the south to
southwest bringing an increase in low level moisture back to the
region. However, time height cross sections and forecast soundings
show dry air continuing in the mid levels one more day before deep
layer moisture begins to return on Wednesday. Trimmed PoPs back a
bit on Tuesday showing 30% for the Florida zones and lower tier GA
zones with 10-20% elsewhere. Then, scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) for all zones on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the warmer side during the
short term period with highs mainly in the mid 90s inland, with a
few spots possibly in the upper 90s, particularly across Southern
Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Model guidance continues to show the next storm system moving
into the Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching
the region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north
of the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday
through the end of the period. High temperatures late in the long
term period will drop back into the lower 90s as convection
increases.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR will prevail at all terminals for the
duration of the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Now that the surface low has pulled well to the northeast,
winds and seas have dropped below headline criteria and should
remain this way at least through the end of the work week as high
pressure builds back over the local waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Southeast Florida Big Bend is still recovering from heavy
rainfall over the weekend. Areal flooding across Dixie and Taylor
Counties will gradually subside over the next couple of days. The
Steinhatchee River is in the process of cresting at the gage just
north of US-19 around 15.7 feet. The river will remain above flood
stage through Tuesday. Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  96  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  40  20
Panama City   79  90  79  90  79 /  20  30  20  30  20
Dothan        74  97  74  95  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
Albany        74  97  74  94  75 /  20  20  20  30  20
Valdosta      74  95  76  95  74 /  30  30  30  40  20
Cross City    76  91  76  91  75 /  40  30  30  40  20
Apalachicola  79  90  79  88  78 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY/GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/MCDERMOTT



000
FXUS62 KTAE 031950
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The large mid/upper eastern CONUS trough will remain in place
through tonight. At the surface, broad low pressure covers north
Florida and south Georgia with a stationary boundary draped through
the Panhandle and southeast Alabama. Convection has remained
offshore for the first part of the day today, with only light
showers just beginning across south-central Georgia. The CU field
this afternoon depicts the east-west moisture gradient across the
Tri-State region. The PoP forecast is similar, with 20-30% along and
east of a line from Albany to Panama City, and 40-50% across the
southeast Big Bend. Expect mostly light to moderate showers today as
storm depth will be capped by dry air above 500mb. The best chance
for thunder will remain across the SE Big Bend and offshore.
Overnight, storms will fill in across the northeast Gulf, and may
impact Dixie and Taylor counties once again. At this time, no more
than a half of an inch is expected in these locations.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

As the weak surface low lifts northeastward into the Carolina`s
Tuesday, the subtropical ridge will begin to build back westward
across the Florida Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico.
This will swing boundary layer winds around to the south to
southwest bringing an increase in low level moisture back to the
region. However, time height cross sections and forecast soundings
show dry air continuing in the mid levels one more day before deep
layer moisture begins to return on Wednesday. Trimmed PoPs back a
bit on Tuesday showing 30% for the Florida zones and lower tier GA
zones with 10-20% elsewhere. Then, scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms (30-40%) for all zones on
Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the warmer side during the
short term period with highs mainly in the mid 90s inland, with a
few spots possibly in the upper 90s, particularly across Southern
Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Model guidance continues to show the next storm system moving
into the Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching
the region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north
of the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday
through the end of the period. High temperatures late in the long
term period will drop back into the lower 90s as convection
increases.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR will prevail at all terminals for the
duration of the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Now that the surface low has pulled well to the northeast,
winds and seas have dropped below headline criteria and should
remain this way at least through the end of the work week as high
pressure builds back over the local waters.

&&

.Fire Weather...

There are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Southeast Florida Big Bend is still recovering from heavy
rainfall over the weekend. Areal flooding across Dixie and Taylor
Counties will gradually subside over the next couple of days. The
Steinhatchee River is in the process of cresting at the gage just
north of US-19 around 15.7 feet. The river will remain above flood
stage through Tuesday. Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   76  96  75  93  75 /  20  30  30  40  20
Panama City   79  90  79  90  79 /  20  30  20  30  20
Dothan        74  97  74  95  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
Albany        74  97  74  94  75 /  20  20  20  30  20
Valdosta      74  95  76  95  74 /  30  30  30  40  20
Cross City    76  91  76  91  75 /  40  30  30  40  20
Apalachicola  79  90  79  88  78 /  20  30  30  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY/GODSEY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/MCDERMOTT



000
FXUS62 KJAX 031844
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015


.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN
ACROSS NORTHEAST ACROSS NE FL THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT. AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS EAST...SOME DRYING
WILL WORK AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING INCREASING BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THESE BREAKS
BECOME MORE COMMON...DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PULLS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
SOUTH FROM IT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...EXPECTING CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTH.

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOIST SW STEERING FLOW WITH PWATS
REMAINING NEAR 2 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DIRUNAL STORMS
WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE MERGERS NEAR THE EAST COAST. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AUGUST NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO S GA BY SUNDAY WITH A MOISTURE SW FLOW PERSISTING.
TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NE FL
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BECOME MORE
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO DIURNAL HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS AREA WATERS THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.
AN ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 4 AM WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. THE REGION WILL THEN BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  74  95 /  20  20  20  30
SSI  76  93  75  88 /  30  30  30  30
JAX  74  92  75  92 /  30  50  30  50
SGJ  75  89  74  89 /  50  50  30  40
GNV  73  90  72  89 /  40  40  30  40
OCF  74  89  72  89 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/ZIBURA/NELSON



000
FXUS62 KJAX 031844
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
244 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015


.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY...WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPIN
ACROSS NORTHEAST ACROSS NE FL THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT. AS THIS WAVE PIVOTS EAST...SOME DRYING
WILL WORK AROUND FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING INCREASING BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AS THESE BREAKS
BECOME MORE COMMON...DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THIS ACTIVITY
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE PULLS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
SOUTH FROM IT ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...EXPECTING CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING SOUTH.

WITH DIURNAL HEATING...AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MOIST SW STEERING FLOW WITH PWATS
REMAINING NEAR 2 INCHES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DIRUNAL STORMS
WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE MERGERS NEAR THE EAST COAST. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES AND POPS TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AUGUST NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EASTERN UPPER TROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES MOVE FROM
THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO S GA BY SUNDAY WITH A MOISTURE SW FLOW PERSISTING.
TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NE FL
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BECOME MORE
COMMON THIS AFTERNOON...DIURNAL HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD
LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT...WITH CONDITIONS TRENDING TOWARD VFR OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE
TO DIURNAL HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS AREA WATERS THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.
AN ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW AROUND THIS LOW WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL EXTEND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 4 AM WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. THE REGION WILL THEN BE BETWEEN A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  97  74  95 /  20  20  20  30
SSI  76  93  75  88 /  30  30  30  30
JAX  74  92  75  92 /  30  50  30  50
SGJ  75  89  74  89 /  50  50  30  40
GNV  73  90  72  89 /  40  40  30  40
OCF  74  89  72  89 /  50  40  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/ZIBURA/NELSON




000
FXUS62 KKEY 031832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
232 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SHOWERS ARE PULSING ALONG CLOUD STREETS PERPENDICULAR TO THE ISLAND
CHAIN AT THIS HOUR. SOME ISLAND LOCATIONS ARE GETTING BENEFICIAL
RAIN. FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR WE CAN SEE AN OUTFLOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY HAVE USED UP ITS REMAINING MOMENTUM AND IS LAGGING OVER NORTHERN
MONROE COUNTY. THE SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVE ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THERE MAY BE SOME INTERESTING COLLISIONS WHEN IT REACHES THE
DECAYING OUTFLOW. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES WERE CURIOUSLY
HIGHER...POSSIBLY DUE TO A LOW LEVEL VORT MAX DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA NORTH OF REMEDIOS CUBA ENHANCING THE
GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE UPPER KEYS...5 TO 10
KNOTS AT SOMBRERO AND SAND KEY LIGHTS...NEAR 10 KNOTS AND GUSTY IN
SHOWERS NEAR LONG KEY...AND 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT SMITH AND PULASKI
SHOAL LIGHTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE ALSO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE KEYS AREA AS WELL AS
THE VORTICITY NORTH OF CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST WHILE
ADDING SOME...ALBEIT LIMITED...LIFTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW END CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUD LINES HAVE BEEN
SUBDUE TODAY POSSIBLY DUE TO THE VORTICITY SENDING OUT BOUNDARIES
THAT CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AND MIX OUT THE ENVIRONMENT.

THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS AREA...AND TURN WINDS MORE
EASTERLY. THE MORE EASTERLY WIND FETCH WILL AIDE CLOUD LINES ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE REMNANT OF THE
TUTT CELL MOVES BEYOND THE KEYS AREA. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE RIDGE
REBUILDS AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID LAYERS OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AS A PROGRESSIVE SAHARAN DUST EVENT ARRIVES NEAR THE KEYS
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BREEZES WILL PEAK AND LULL DUE TO PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
AND AFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THE MAINLAND. NO ADVISORY OR
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS THE REST OF THE EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT REMAINING UP TO 8 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1910...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN
KEY WEST WAS 72 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON AUGUST 3RD...WHICH STANDS 105 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  91  81  91 / 30 30 20 20
MARATHON  81  93  81  93 / 30 30 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 031832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
232 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SHOWERS ARE PULSING ALONG CLOUD STREETS PERPENDICULAR TO THE ISLAND
CHAIN AT THIS HOUR. SOME ISLAND LOCATIONS ARE GETTING BENEFICIAL
RAIN. FROM SATELLITE AND RADAR WE CAN SEE AN OUTFLOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY HAVE USED UP ITS REMAINING MOMENTUM AND IS LAGGING OVER NORTHERN
MONROE COUNTY. THE SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE IS ACTIVE ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THERE MAY BE SOME INTERESTING COLLISIONS WHEN IT REACHES THE
DECAYING OUTFLOW. WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN MARINE ZONES WERE CURIOUSLY
HIGHER...POSSIBLY DUE TO A LOW LEVEL VORT MAX DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA NORTH OF REMEDIOS CUBA ENHANCING THE
GRADIENT OVER THIS AREA. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE UPPER KEYS...5 TO 10
KNOTS AT SOMBRERO AND SAND KEY LIGHTS...NEAR 10 KNOTS AND GUSTY IN
SHOWERS NEAR LONG KEY...AND 5 KNOTS OR LESS AT SMITH AND PULASKI
SHOAL LIGHTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE ALSO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AROUND 5 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN MOVING THROUGH THE KEYS AREA AS WELL AS
THE VORTICITY NORTH OF CUBA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWEST WHILE
ADDING SOME...ALBEIT LIMITED...LIFTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND WILL KEEP THE LOW END CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUD LINES HAVE BEEN
SUBDUE TODAY POSSIBLY DUE TO THE VORTICITY SENDING OUT BOUNDARIES
THAT CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AND MIX OUT THE ENVIRONMENT.

THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
BUILDS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS AREA...AND TURN WINDS MORE
EASTERLY. THE MORE EASTERLY WIND FETCH WILL AIDE CLOUD LINES ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE REMNANT OF THE
TUTT CELL MOVES BEYOND THE KEYS AREA. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE RIDGE
REBUILDS AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID LAYERS OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AS A PROGRESSIVE SAHARAN DUST EVENT ARRIVES NEAR THE KEYS
AREA EARLY THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BREEZES WILL PEAK AND LULL DUE TO PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
AND AFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THE MAINLAND. NO ADVISORY OR
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS THE REST OF THE EVENING. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EASTERLY TONIGHT REMAINING UP TO 8 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1910...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN
KEY WEST WAS 72 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON AUGUST 3RD...WHICH STANDS 105 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  91  81  91 / 30 30 20 20
MARATHON  81  93  81  93 / 30 30 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMFL 031739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. AN OUTFLOW OBSERVABLE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA MAY TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE AND HOW STRONG. SO
FOR NOW LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS BUT MAY HAVE TO
AMEND IF DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHES OR BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE FLOW IS NEARLY DUE SOUTH BUT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL
POSSIBLY KEEP DIRECTION FROM THE SSE AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...
PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SSE-
SSW SURFACE WIND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AROUND 15-17Z. THESE CELLS WILL THEN
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH SO JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. THUS, LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL THOSE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...

SOUTH FLORIDA SURFACE FLOW TODAY, WHICH WILL BE A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE LAKE
REGION, WILL PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE INTERIOR
AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE A
LITTLE STEEPER, HOWEVER THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY CLIMB ABOVE 15KFT
FOR THE FIRST TINE IN A FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN STORMS CAN PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE PANHANDLE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GA/SC COAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS POKES
DEEPER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WIND PROFILE WILL THEN ONLY BE
GOVERNED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH DEEPER, ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE AREA OF MOST
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, POPS WILL STILL
REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS INCREASINGLY
WEAKER SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

LONG TERM (THU-MON)...

SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE AND NAVY
MODEL STILL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF DRY AIR (SAHARAN AIR
LAYER) APPROACHING NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, LIMITING THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT PERHAPS ALLOWING THEM TO PACK A LITTLE MORE
OF A PUNCH. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH
OOZE BACK DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/GULF
OF MEXICO RIDGE IS DIVIDED. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND/FORECAST AS THE DRY LAYER DEPARTS.

MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  78  91 /  40  40  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  90  80  90 /  30  30  20  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  90 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           76  91  76  92 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 031739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. AN OUTFLOW OBSERVABLE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA MAY TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE AND HOW STRONG. SO
FOR NOW LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS BUT MAY HAVE TO
AMEND IF DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHES OR BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE FLOW IS NEARLY DUE SOUTH BUT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL
POSSIBLY KEEP DIRECTION FROM THE SSE AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...
PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SSE-
SSW SURFACE WIND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AROUND 15-17Z. THESE CELLS WILL THEN
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH SO JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. THUS, LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL THOSE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...

SOUTH FLORIDA SURFACE FLOW TODAY, WHICH WILL BE A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE LAKE
REGION, WILL PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE INTERIOR
AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE A
LITTLE STEEPER, HOWEVER THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY CLIMB ABOVE 15KFT
FOR THE FIRST TINE IN A FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN STORMS CAN PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE PANHANDLE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GA/SC COAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS POKES
DEEPER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WIND PROFILE WILL THEN ONLY BE
GOVERNED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH DEEPER, ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE AREA OF MOST
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, POPS WILL STILL
REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS INCREASINGLY
WEAKER SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

LONG TERM (THU-MON)...

SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE AND NAVY
MODEL STILL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF DRY AIR (SAHARAN AIR
LAYER) APPROACHING NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, LIMITING THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT PERHAPS ALLOWING THEM TO PACK A LITTLE MORE
OF A PUNCH. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH
OOZE BACK DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/GULF
OF MEXICO RIDGE IS DIVIDED. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND/FORECAST AS THE DRY LAYER DEPARTS.

MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  78  91 /  40  40  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  90  80  90 /  30  30  20  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  90 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           76  91  76  92 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD



000
FXUS62 KTAE 031512
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1112 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Update...

The previous forecast and discussions remain on track. Only minor
temperature updates were made to account for the thick clouds over
the eastern third of the region this morning.

&&

.Prev Discussion [357 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Weak surface low has moved inland over the southeastern Big Bend
this morning and is expected to continue to move steadily northeast
through the day. Best rain chances for today will be over the far
eastern zones, associated with the surface low and its trailing band
of deep layer moisture. However, risk of flooding rain has
diminished.

Elsewhere, a drier low level airmass will filter into the region
today in the wake of the surface low. Expect dewpoints to drop into
the upper 60s to near 70s by this afternoon for much of the region.
This will limit the potential for afternoon thunderstorms,
especially across SW Georgia into SE Alabama. The limited cloud
cover will allow for hot temperatures to return, with upper 90s
returning for this afternoon.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
With the surface low continuing to move further northeast of the
region overnight, expect only scattered storms across the
Southeast Florida Big Bend tonight. By Tuesday, the subtropical
ridge will begin to build back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will
allow for mainly scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the
warmer side during the short term period with highs mainly in the
mid 90s inland, with a few spots possibly in the upper 90s,
particularly across Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Model guidance shows the next storm system moving into the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching the
region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north of
the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday through the end
of the period. High temperatures late in the long term period
will drop back into the lower 90s as convection increases.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] IFR cigs will impact KVLD, KABY, and possible
KTLH through mid to late morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
forecast to prevail with limited chances for afternoon
thunderstorms.


.Marine...
Advisory level winds and seas will continue over the eastern legs
through this morning when the gradient will begin to relax.
Thereafter, high pressure building back over the Eastern Gulf will
result in low winds and seas through the next few days.


.Fire Weather...
A drier low-level airmass will allow RH values to drop into the
lower 30s across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. However, no Red Flag
conditions are anticipated.


.Hydrology...
With the threat for heavy rain coming to an end, focus for the
next couple of days will be remaining river flooding in the
Southeast Florida Big Bend. The Steinhatchee River is in the
process of cresting at the gage just north of US-19 around 15.6
feet. The river will remain above flood stage through Tuesday.

Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected. Areal flooding across
Dixie County will gradually subside over the next couple of days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  75  96  75  94 /  40  20  40  20  40
Panama City   90  77  90  78  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
Dothan        97  72  97  74  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
Albany        94  72  97  74  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      92  74  95  76  96 /  40  20  40  20  40
Cross City    88  76  91  76  91 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  90  80  90  79  89 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN/CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



000
FXUS62 KTAE 031512
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1112 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Update...

The previous forecast and discussions remain on track. Only minor
temperature updates were made to account for the thick clouds over
the eastern third of the region this morning.

&&

.Prev Discussion [357 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Weak surface low has moved inland over the southeastern Big Bend
this morning and is expected to continue to move steadily northeast
through the day. Best rain chances for today will be over the far
eastern zones, associated with the surface low and its trailing band
of deep layer moisture. However, risk of flooding rain has
diminished.

Elsewhere, a drier low level airmass will filter into the region
today in the wake of the surface low. Expect dewpoints to drop into
the upper 60s to near 70s by this afternoon for much of the region.
This will limit the potential for afternoon thunderstorms,
especially across SW Georgia into SE Alabama. The limited cloud
cover will allow for hot temperatures to return, with upper 90s
returning for this afternoon.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
With the surface low continuing to move further northeast of the
region overnight, expect only scattered storms across the
Southeast Florida Big Bend tonight. By Tuesday, the subtropical
ridge will begin to build back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will
allow for mainly scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the
warmer side during the short term period with highs mainly in the
mid 90s inland, with a few spots possibly in the upper 90s,
particularly across Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Model guidance shows the next storm system moving into the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching the
region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north of
the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday through the end
of the period. High temperatures late in the long term period
will drop back into the lower 90s as convection increases.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] IFR cigs will impact KVLD, KABY, and possible
KTLH through mid to late morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
forecast to prevail with limited chances for afternoon
thunderstorms.


.Marine...
Advisory level winds and seas will continue over the eastern legs
through this morning when the gradient will begin to relax.
Thereafter, high pressure building back over the Eastern Gulf will
result in low winds and seas through the next few days.


.Fire Weather...
A drier low-level airmass will allow RH values to drop into the
lower 30s across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. However, no Red Flag
conditions are anticipated.


.Hydrology...
With the threat for heavy rain coming to an end, focus for the
next couple of days will be remaining river flooding in the
Southeast Florida Big Bend. The Steinhatchee River is in the
process of cresting at the gage just north of US-19 around 15.6
feet. The river will remain above flood stage through Tuesday.

Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected. Areal flooding across
Dixie County will gradually subside over the next couple of days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  75  96  75  94 /  40  20  40  20  40
Panama City   90  77  90  78  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
Dothan        97  72  97  74  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
Albany        94  72  97  74  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      92  74  95  76  96 /  40  20  40  20  40
Cross City    88  76  91  76  91 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  90  80  90  79  89 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN/CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 031512
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1112 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Update...

The previous forecast and discussions remain on track. Only minor
temperature updates were made to account for the thick clouds over
the eastern third of the region this morning.

&&

.Prev Discussion [357 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Weak surface low has moved inland over the southeastern Big Bend
this morning and is expected to continue to move steadily northeast
through the day. Best rain chances for today will be over the far
eastern zones, associated with the surface low and its trailing band
of deep layer moisture. However, risk of flooding rain has
diminished.

Elsewhere, a drier low level airmass will filter into the region
today in the wake of the surface low. Expect dewpoints to drop into
the upper 60s to near 70s by this afternoon for much of the region.
This will limit the potential for afternoon thunderstorms,
especially across SW Georgia into SE Alabama. The limited cloud
cover will allow for hot temperatures to return, with upper 90s
returning for this afternoon.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
With the surface low continuing to move further northeast of the
region overnight, expect only scattered storms across the
Southeast Florida Big Bend tonight. By Tuesday, the subtropical
ridge will begin to build back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will
allow for mainly scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the
warmer side during the short term period with highs mainly in the
mid 90s inland, with a few spots possibly in the upper 90s,
particularly across Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Model guidance shows the next storm system moving into the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching the
region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north of
the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday through the end
of the period. High temperatures late in the long term period
will drop back into the lower 90s as convection increases.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] IFR cigs will impact KVLD, KABY, and possible
KTLH through mid to late morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
forecast to prevail with limited chances for afternoon
thunderstorms.


.Marine...
Advisory level winds and seas will continue over the eastern legs
through this morning when the gradient will begin to relax.
Thereafter, high pressure building back over the Eastern Gulf will
result in low winds and seas through the next few days.


.Fire Weather...
A drier low-level airmass will allow RH values to drop into the
lower 30s across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. However, no Red Flag
conditions are anticipated.


.Hydrology...
With the threat for heavy rain coming to an end, focus for the
next couple of days will be remaining river flooding in the
Southeast Florida Big Bend. The Steinhatchee River is in the
process of cresting at the gage just north of US-19 around 15.6
feet. The river will remain above flood stage through Tuesday.

Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected. Areal flooding across
Dixie County will gradually subside over the next couple of days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  75  96  75  94 /  40  20  40  20  40
Panama City   90  77  90  78  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
Dothan        97  72  97  74  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
Albany        94  72  97  74  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      92  74  95  76  96 /  40  20  40  20  40
Cross City    88  76  91  76  91 /  50  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  90  80  90  79  89 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN/CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 031438
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...SFC/RADAR ANLYS PLACES SURFACE LOW CENTER A LITTLE BIT
EAST OF KLCQ/LAKE CITY AND LIFTING NEWD AS OF 10AM/15UTC. A LARGE
SWATH OF CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE SSW/SW OF THE LOW ALONG A SFC
TROUGH...AND CONTINUES TO INUNDATE THE WRN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
FROM THE BIG BEND SWD THROUGH CAPE CORAL. RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS
WELL INLAND ACROSS LAKE AND ADJACENT FAR WRN ORANGE/SEMINOLE AND NW
OSCEOLA/VOLUSIA COS. A LARGE/RADIALLY STRIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CANOPY EXTENDS EVEN FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA...THINNING
SOME OVER THE TREASURE COAST/ADJACENT ATLC.

FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN PWATS BETWEEN THE SWATH OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH FLOW LOW (2.5"+) AND DRIER AIR TO THE EAST
(1.5 TO 1.6") SHOWN BY BOTH MORNING RAOBS AND TPW IMAGERY. A DECENT
DRY SLUG SHOWS UP IN THE H95-H65 LAYER AT XMR/MFL. NEAR SATURATION
TO THE N/W. RAOB AND PROFILER DATA ALSO SHOW STOUT SW-SSW SFC-3KM
LAYER AVERAGED WINDS OF 25-30KT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...ALL METAR SITES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15KT SUSTAINED ATTM.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE SFC LOW LIFTING
OFF TO THE NE AND DRAGGING THE SLUG OF SATURATED AIR EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. NORMALLY ONE WOULD EXPECT
HIGH PRECIP COVERAGE REGIME...SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS...VIA
CONVECTIVE BANDS ASCD WITH THE LOW AND/OR A PSEUDO WCSB. FY IN THE
OINTMENT OF SORTS IN THE CIRRUS CANOPY WHICH WILL LIKELY RESTRICT
SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS HAS "STUNG"
OUR POP/QPF FORECASTS OFTEN OVER THE LAST FEW DECADES...WHEREIN A
HIGH-PWAT AIR MASS PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER WRN FL FAILS TO
DO MUCH FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z HRRR APPEARS TO FOLLOW THIS LINE OF
THINKING WITH RATHER PALTRY QPF MAINLY OVER THE NRN 2/3 CWA...BUT
PRETTY DECENT COVERAGE OF LGT-MDT RAIN SHOWERS.

PLAN TO KEEP THE HIGH POPS (70 NORTH/50 SOUTH) OF THE CURRENT FCST
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...WHICH
COULD MITIGATE THE HEAVY RAIN/URBAN FLOODING THREAT OVER THE NRN/WRN
CWA (I.E. LAKE CO)...WHERE HIGHEST ANTECEDENT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN
THUS FAR. WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR
THE NRN INTERIOR BY A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN THE ALREADY LOW NOS AS
THICKER DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD DOWN READINGS THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...FROM LEE EWD THROUGH THE ISM-MCO-SFC-DAB CORRIDOR...THIS
AREAS LOOKS TO BE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS MOST OF
THE DAY THROUGH 00Z WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER FASTER MOVING +SHRA/
TS PSBL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 16Z. AN EVEN BETTER CHC FOR DIURNAL TS
EXPECT FROM TIX-MLB-SUA AS THINNER DEBRIS CLOUDS/BETTER SFC HEATING
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SSW-SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF 15KT...
WITH SEAS 1.5-2FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4FT WELL OFFSHORE...15-20KT/4-5FT
IN A SMALL AREA WELL OFFSHORE VOLUSIA CO...WHERE A CAUTIONARY STMT
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTN. CURRENT GRIDS AND CWF LOOK FINE.

&&

FORECASTS/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

TONIGHT...THE LOW LVL LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
GA COAST WITH A TRAILING BAND OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD
SEE SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF
A KISSIMMEE TO SCOTTSMOOR LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT FOR SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...MODELS HAVE SFC LOW NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL TO 30-40 PERCENT TOWARD BREVARD COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY
WITH A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. POPS RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT INLAND.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA SHOULD AFFECT NRN TERMINALS 16Z-
20Z...AND SRN TERMINALS 19Z-23Z AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM NR KCTY
THIS MORNING. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 25-35 KTS PSBL WITH CONVECTION AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE ENE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...S/SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SCEC HEADLINES NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT WITH
WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS OFFSHORE AS SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES STEEPEN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM MID DAY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

TUE-WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
WED. WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW WILL BECOME S/SE INTO WED WITH SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.

THU-FRI...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  73  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  87  74  91  74 /  70  40  50  30
MLB  91  74  90  75 /  60  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  91  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  86  76  91  76 /  70  40  60  30
SFB  86  74  91  75 /  70  40  60  30
ORL  86  75  91  76 /  70  40  50  30
FPR  91  72  91  74 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMLB 031438
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...SFC/RADAR ANLYS PLACES SURFACE LOW CENTER A LITTLE BIT
EAST OF KLCQ/LAKE CITY AND LIFTING NEWD AS OF 10AM/15UTC. A LARGE
SWATH OF CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE SSW/SW OF THE LOW ALONG A SFC
TROUGH...AND CONTINUES TO INUNDATE THE WRN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
FROM THE BIG BEND SWD THROUGH CAPE CORAL. RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS
WELL INLAND ACROSS LAKE AND ADJACENT FAR WRN ORANGE/SEMINOLE AND NW
OSCEOLA/VOLUSIA COS. A LARGE/RADIALLY STRIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CANOPY EXTENDS EVEN FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA...THINNING
SOME OVER THE TREASURE COAST/ADJACENT ATLC.

FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN PWATS BETWEEN THE SWATH OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH FLOW LOW (2.5"+) AND DRIER AIR TO THE EAST
(1.5 TO 1.6") SHOWN BY BOTH MORNING RAOBS AND TPW IMAGERY. A DECENT
DRY SLUG SHOWS UP IN THE H95-H65 LAYER AT XMR/MFL. NEAR SATURATION
TO THE N/W. RAOB AND PROFILER DATA ALSO SHOW STOUT SW-SSW SFC-3KM
LAYER AVERAGED WINDS OF 25-30KT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...ALL METAR SITES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15KT SUSTAINED ATTM.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE SFC LOW LIFTING
OFF TO THE NE AND DRAGGING THE SLUG OF SATURATED AIR EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. NORMALLY ONE WOULD EXPECT
HIGH PRECIP COVERAGE REGIME...SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS...VIA
CONVECTIVE BANDS ASCD WITH THE LOW AND/OR A PSEUDO WCSB. FY IN THE
OINTMENT OF SORTS IN THE CIRRUS CANOPY WHICH WILL LIKELY RESTRICT
SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS HAS "STUNG"
OUR POP/QPF FORECASTS OFTEN OVER THE LAST FEW DECADES...WHEREIN A
HIGH-PWAT AIR MASS PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER WRN FL FAILS TO
DO MUCH FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z HRRR APPEARS TO FOLLOW THIS LINE OF
THINKING WITH RATHER PALTRY QPF MAINLY OVER THE NRN 2/3 CWA...BUT
PRETTY DECENT COVERAGE OF LGT-MDT RAIN SHOWERS.

PLAN TO KEEP THE HIGH POPS (70 NORTH/50 SOUTH) OF THE CURRENT FCST
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...WHICH
COULD MITIGATE THE HEAVY RAIN/URBAN FLOODING THREAT OVER THE NRN/WRN
CWA (I.E. LAKE CO)...WHERE HIGHEST ANTECEDENT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN
THUS FAR. WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR
THE NRN INTERIOR BY A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN THE ALREADY LOW NOS AS
THICKER DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD DOWN READINGS THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...FROM LEE EWD THROUGH THE ISM-MCO-SFC-DAB CORRIDOR...THIS
AREAS LOOKS TO BE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS MOST OF
THE DAY THROUGH 00Z WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER FASTER MOVING +SHRA/
TS PSBL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 16Z. AN EVEN BETTER CHC FOR DIURNAL TS
EXPECT FROM TIX-MLB-SUA AS THINNER DEBRIS CLOUDS/BETTER SFC HEATING
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...SSW-SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF 15KT...
WITH SEAS 1.5-2FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4FT WELL OFFSHORE...15-20KT/4-5FT
IN A SMALL AREA WELL OFFSHORE VOLUSIA CO...WHERE A CAUTIONARY STMT
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTN. CURRENT GRIDS AND CWF LOOK FINE.

&&

FORECASTS/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

TONIGHT...THE LOW LVL LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
GA COAST WITH A TRAILING BAND OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD
SEE SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF
A KISSIMMEE TO SCOTTSMOOR LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT FOR SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...MODELS HAVE SFC LOW NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL TO 30-40 PERCENT TOWARD BREVARD COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY
WITH A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. POPS RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT INLAND.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA SHOULD AFFECT NRN TERMINALS 16Z-
20Z...AND SRN TERMINALS 19Z-23Z AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM NR KCTY
THIS MORNING. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 25-35 KTS PSBL WITH CONVECTION AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE ENE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...S/SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SCEC HEADLINES NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT WITH
WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS OFFSHORE AS SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES STEEPEN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM MID DAY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

TUE-WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
WED. WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW WILL BECOME S/SE INTO WED WITH SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.

THU-FRI...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  73  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  87  74  91  74 /  70  40  50  30
MLB  91  74  90  75 /  60  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  91  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  86  76  91  76 /  70  40  60  30
SFB  86  74  91  75 /  70  40  60  30
ORL  86  75  91  76 /  70  40  50  30
FPR  91  72  91  74 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KKEY 031340
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A SURFACE LOW PARKED JUST OFF THE LEVY COUNTY COAST. A FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD
TO LEVY COUNTY. FROM SATELLITE WE SEE SOME TRAVERSE CLOUD FEATURES ON
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THIS LOW. THE TUTT CELL
THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN
OVER THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE REMNANT MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD CUBA.
WINDS LOCALLY ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS ALONG THE REEF
EXCEPT FOR MOLASSES REEF WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER...10 TO 15 KNOTS DUE
TO A LINGERING BOUNDARY WITH A HISTORY OF SHOWERS. THE MARINE
STATIONS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHILE THE ISLAND
TERMINALS ARE COMING IN AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE KEY WEST RADAR IS MOVING OVER FLAMINGO ALONG THE BOUNDARY
MENTIONED WITH MOLASSES REEF ABOVE...AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
NEAR ELBO CAY 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOMS HARBOR. FINALLY THE ATLANTIC
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

.FORECAST...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
PWAT THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPING
ISLAND CLOUDLINES TODAY. WITH THIS IN MIND THERE IS A BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE A FEW WATERSPOUTS...REMEMBER
THAT WATERSPOUTS FROM UNDER TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH FLAT DARK
BASES. KEEP AND EYE TO THE SKY WHILE ON THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
ISLAND CHAIN AND STEER AWAY FROM THESE CLOUD TYPES.

WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LIFTING OUT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS AREA...AND TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY. THE
MORE EASTERLY WIND FETCH WILL AIDE CLOUD LINES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE REMNANT OF THE TUTT CELL
MOVES BEYOND THE KEYS AREA. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE RIDGE REBUILDS
AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID LAYERS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS A
PROGRESSIVE SAHARAN DUST EVENT ARRIVES NEAR THE KEYS AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BREEZES WILL PEAK AND LULL DUE TO PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
AND AFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THE MAINLAND. NO ADVISORY OR
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING EASTERLY TONIGHT...REMAINING BELOW 8
KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1910...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN
KEY WEST WAS 72 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON AUGUST 3RD...WHICH STANDS 105 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 031340
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A SURFACE LOW PARKED JUST OFF THE LEVY COUNTY COAST. A FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD
TO LEVY COUNTY. FROM SATELLITE WE SEE SOME TRAVERSE CLOUD FEATURES ON
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THIS LOW. THE TUTT CELL
THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN
OVER THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE REMNANT MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD CUBA.
WINDS LOCALLY ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS ALONG THE REEF
EXCEPT FOR MOLASSES REEF WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER...10 TO 15 KNOTS DUE
TO A LINGERING BOUNDARY WITH A HISTORY OF SHOWERS. THE MARINE
STATIONS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHILE THE ISLAND
TERMINALS ARE COMING IN AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE KEY WEST RADAR IS MOVING OVER FLAMINGO ALONG THE BOUNDARY
MENTIONED WITH MOLASSES REEF ABOVE...AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
NEAR ELBO CAY 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOMS HARBOR. FINALLY THE ATLANTIC
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

.FORECAST...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
PWAT THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPING
ISLAND CLOUDLINES TODAY. WITH THIS IN MIND THERE IS A BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE A FEW WATERSPOUTS...REMEMBER
THAT WATERSPOUTS FROM UNDER TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH FLAT DARK
BASES. KEEP AND EYE TO THE SKY WHILE ON THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
ISLAND CHAIN AND STEER AWAY FROM THESE CLOUD TYPES.

WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LIFTING OUT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS AREA...AND TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY. THE
MORE EASTERLY WIND FETCH WILL AIDE CLOUD LINES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE REMNANT OF THE TUTT CELL
MOVES BEYOND THE KEYS AREA. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE RIDGE REBUILDS
AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID LAYERS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS A
PROGRESSIVE SAHARAN DUST EVENT ARRIVES NEAR THE KEYS AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BREEZES WILL PEAK AND LULL DUE TO PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
AND AFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THE MAINLAND. NO ADVISORY OR
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING EASTERLY TONIGHT...REMAINING BELOW 8
KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1910...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN
KEY WEST WAS 72 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON AUGUST 3RD...WHICH STANDS 105 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 031340
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A SURFACE LOW PARKED JUST OFF THE LEVY COUNTY COAST. A FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD
TO LEVY COUNTY. FROM SATELLITE WE SEE SOME TRAVERSE CLOUD FEATURES ON
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THIS LOW. THE TUTT CELL
THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN
OVER THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE REMNANT MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD CUBA.
WINDS LOCALLY ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS ALONG THE REEF
EXCEPT FOR MOLASSES REEF WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER...10 TO 15 KNOTS DUE
TO A LINGERING BOUNDARY WITH A HISTORY OF SHOWERS. THE MARINE
STATIONS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHILE THE ISLAND
TERMINALS ARE COMING IN AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE KEY WEST RADAR IS MOVING OVER FLAMINGO ALONG THE BOUNDARY
MENTIONED WITH MOLASSES REEF ABOVE...AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
NEAR ELBO CAY 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOMS HARBOR. FINALLY THE ATLANTIC
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

.FORECAST...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
PWAT THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPING
ISLAND CLOUDLINES TODAY. WITH THIS IN MIND THERE IS A BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE A FEW WATERSPOUTS...REMEMBER
THAT WATERSPOUTS FROM UNDER TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH FLAT DARK
BASES. KEEP AND EYE TO THE SKY WHILE ON THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
ISLAND CHAIN AND STEER AWAY FROM THESE CLOUD TYPES.

WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LIFTING OUT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS AREA...AND TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY. THE
MORE EASTERLY WIND FETCH WILL AIDE CLOUD LINES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE REMNANT OF THE TUTT CELL
MOVES BEYOND THE KEYS AREA. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE RIDGE REBUILDS
AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID LAYERS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS A
PROGRESSIVE SAHARAN DUST EVENT ARRIVES NEAR THE KEYS AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BREEZES WILL PEAK AND LULL DUE TO PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
AND AFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THE MAINLAND. NO ADVISORY OR
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING EASTERLY TONIGHT...REMAINING BELOW 8
KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1910...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN
KEY WEST WAS 72 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON AUGUST 3RD...WHICH STANDS 105 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 031340
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
WITH A SURFACE LOW PARKED JUST OFF THE LEVY COUNTY COAST. A FLOOD
WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA FROM PINELLAS COUNTY NORTHWARD
TO LEVY COUNTY. FROM SATELLITE WE SEE SOME TRAVERSE CLOUD FEATURES ON
THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THIS LOW. THE TUTT CELL
THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN
OVER THE BAHAMAS...WITH THE REMNANT MOVING SOUTHWEST TOWARD CUBA.
WINDS LOCALLY ARE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS ALONG THE REEF
EXCEPT FOR MOLASSES REEF WHICH IS A BIT HIGHER...10 TO 15 KNOTS DUE
TO A LINGERING BOUNDARY WITH A HISTORY OF SHOWERS. THE MARINE
STATIONS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE 5 TO 10 KNOTS WHILE THE ISLAND
TERMINALS ARE COMING IN AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THE ONLY SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM THE KEY WEST RADAR IS MOVING OVER FLAMINGO ALONG THE BOUNDARY
MENTIONED WITH MOLASSES REEF ABOVE...AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
NEAR ELBO CAY 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOMS HARBOR. FINALLY THE ATLANTIC
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

.FORECAST...
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES OF
PWAT THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ENHANCE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPING
ISLAND CLOUDLINES TODAY. WITH THIS IN MIND THERE IS A BETTER THAN
AVERAGE POSSIBILITY THAT WE WILL SEE A FEW WATERSPOUTS...REMEMBER
THAT WATERSPOUTS FROM UNDER TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH FLAT DARK
BASES. KEEP AND EYE TO THE SKY WHILE ON THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
ISLAND CHAIN AND STEER AWAY FROM THESE CLOUD TYPES.

WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LIFTING OUT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE KEYS AREA...AND TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY. THE
MORE EASTERLY WIND FETCH WILL AIDE CLOUD LINES ALONG THE ISLAND
CHAIN. WILL KEEP LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE REMNANT OF THE TUTT CELL
MOVES BEYOND THE KEYS AREA. THEREAFTER...THE SURFACE RIDGE REBUILDS
AND DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID LAYERS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AS A
PROGRESSIVE SAHARAN DUST EVENT ARRIVES NEAR THE KEYS AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
BREEZES WILL PEAK AND LULL DUE TO PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
AND AFFECTS OF DAYTIME HEATING ON THE MAINLAND. NO ADVISORY OR
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
TODAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY PICK MORE OF A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY...BECOMING EASTERLY TONIGHT...REMAINING BELOW 8
KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1910...THE LOW TEMPERATURE IN
KEY WEST WAS 72 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON AUGUST 3RD...WHICH STANDS 105 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 031332
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA CREATING A LARGE AREA OF
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE ONGOING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. STRONG U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PCPW
VALUES OF 2.25 TO 2.40 INCHES...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH HELPED INITIATE A LARGE MCS TO DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING ONSHORE THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN. REPORTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES COMMON ACROSS NORTHWEST
HILLSBOROUGH...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES. THE
AREA OF RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS FLOOD WATERS WILL BE
VERY SLOW TO DRAIN DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND.  THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH THE ANCLOTE
RIVER AT ELFERS EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 26.5 FEET THIS EVENING.
THE FLOODING ON THE ANCLOTE RIVER WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IN 2012. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ON CYPRESS CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  77  89  77 / 100  30  50  10
FMY  90  75  91  76 /  70  30  50  40
GIF  86  75  90  75 /  80  30  50  40
SRQ  84  76  89  76 / 100  30  40  20
BKV  83  74  89  73 / 100  40  50  20
SPG  82  78  89  78 / 100  30  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL
     LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...74/WYNN



000
FXUS62 KTBW 031332
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA CREATING A LARGE AREA OF
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE ONGOING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. STRONG U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PCPW
VALUES OF 2.25 TO 2.40 INCHES...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH HELPED INITIATE A LARGE MCS TO DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING ONSHORE THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN. REPORTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES COMMON ACROSS NORTHWEST
HILLSBOROUGH...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES. THE
AREA OF RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS FLOOD WATERS WILL BE
VERY SLOW TO DRAIN DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND.  THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH THE ANCLOTE
RIVER AT ELFERS EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 26.5 FEET THIS EVENING.
THE FLOODING ON THE ANCLOTE RIVER WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IN 2012. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ON CYPRESS CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  77  89  77 / 100  30  50  10
FMY  90  75  91  76 /  70  30  50  40
GIF  86  75  90  75 /  80  30  50  40
SRQ  84  76  89  76 / 100  30  40  20
BKV  83  74  89  73 / 100  40  50  20
SPG  82  78  89  78 / 100  30  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL
     LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...74/WYNN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 031332
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA CREATING A LARGE AREA OF
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE ONGOING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. STRONG U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PCPW
VALUES OF 2.25 TO 2.40 INCHES...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH HELPED INITIATE A LARGE MCS TO DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING ONSHORE THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN. REPORTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES COMMON ACROSS NORTHWEST
HILLSBOROUGH...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES. THE
AREA OF RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS FLOOD WATERS WILL BE
VERY SLOW TO DRAIN DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND.  THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH THE ANCLOTE
RIVER AT ELFERS EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 26.5 FEET THIS EVENING.
THE FLOODING ON THE ANCLOTE RIVER WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IN 2012. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ON CYPRESS CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  77  89  77 / 100  30  50  10
FMY  90  75  91  76 /  70  30  50  40
GIF  86  75  90  75 /  80  30  50  40
SRQ  84  76  89  76 / 100  30  40  20
BKV  83  74  89  73 / 100  40  50  20
SPG  82  78  89  78 / 100  30  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL
     LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...74/WYNN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 031332
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA CREATING A LARGE AREA OF
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
STRONG COASTAL CONVERGENCE ONGOING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. STRONG U/L DIFFLUENCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COMBINED WITH VERY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PCPW
VALUES OF 2.25 TO 2.40 INCHES...CREATING A VERY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH HELPED INITIATE A LARGE MCS TO DEVELOP LAST
NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING ONSHORE THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING WITH PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN. REPORTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES COMMON ACROSS NORTHWEST
HILLSBOROUGH...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND WESTERN PASCO COUNTIES. THE
AREA OF RAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE PRECIP SHIELD GRADUALLY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY WITH A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING. THESE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED AS FLOOD WATERS WILL BE
VERY SLOW TO DRAIN DUE TO THE SATURATED GROUND.  THE HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH THE ANCLOTE
RIVER AT ELFERS EXPECTED TO RISE TO AROUND 26.5 FEET THIS EVENING.
THE FLOODING ON THE ANCLOTE RIVER WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED WITH TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IN 2012. SIGNIFICANT RISES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ON CYPRESS CREEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  82  77  89  77 / 100  30  50  10
FMY  90  75  91  76 /  70  30  50  40
GIF  86  75  90  75 /  80  30  50  40
SRQ  84  76  89  76 / 100  30  40  20
BKV  83  74  89  73 / 100  40  50  20
SPG  82  78  89  78 / 100  30  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL
     LEVY-COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...74/WYNN



000
FXUS62 KJAX 031304
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
EVENING. MAINLY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS LOW
TRACKS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
WITH ANY CLOUD BREAKS THAT CAN HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SE GA/NE FL THIS
AFTERNOON THEN OVER AREA WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL TRACK UP
THE COAST TONIGHT. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ELEVATED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  97  74 /  30  20  20  20
SSI  86  76  91  78 /  50  20  30  30
JAX  88  76  94  75 /  50  30  50  30
SGJ  86  75  90  76 /  50  40  50  30
GNV  86  74  91  74 /  80  40  40  30
OCF  84  74  90  73 /  80  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 031304
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
EVENING. MAINLY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS LOW
TRACKS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
WITH ANY CLOUD BREAKS THAT CAN HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SE GA/NE FL THIS
AFTERNOON THEN OVER AREA WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL TRACK UP
THE COAST TONIGHT. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ELEVATED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  97  74 /  30  20  20  20
SSI  86  76  91  78 /  50  20  30  30
JAX  88  76  94  75 /  50  30  50  30
SGJ  86  75  90  76 /  50  40  50  30
GNV  86  74  91  74 /  80  40  40  30
OCF  84  74  90  73 /  80  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE



000
FXUS62 KJAX 031304
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
EVENING. MAINLY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS LOW
TRACKS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
WITH ANY CLOUD BREAKS THAT CAN HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SE GA/NE FL THIS
AFTERNOON THEN OVER AREA WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL TRACK UP
THE COAST TONIGHT. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ELEVATED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  97  74 /  30  20  20  20
SSI  86  76  91  78 /  50  20  30  30
JAX  88  76  94  75 /  50  30  50  30
SGJ  86  75  90  76 /  50  40  50  30
GNV  86  74  91  74 /  80  40  40  30
OCF  84  74  90  73 /  80  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 031304
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
EVENING. MAINLY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS LOW
TRACKS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE
WITH ANY CLOUD BREAKS THAT CAN HELP TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL SLOWLY RISE THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE EXPECTED IN AND NEAR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SE GA/NE FL THIS
AFTERNOON THEN OVER AREA WATERS THIS EVENING. THIS WILL TRACK UP
THE COAST TONIGHT. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN ELEVATED CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  97  74 /  30  20  20  20
SSI  86  76  91  78 /  50  20  30  30
JAX  88  76  94  75 /  50  30  50  30
SGJ  86  75  90  76 /  50  40  50  30
GNV  86  74  91  74 /  80  40  40  30
OCF  84  74  90  73 /  80  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 031133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SSE-
SSW SURFACE WIND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AROUND 15-17Z. THESE CELLS WILL THEN
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH SO JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. THUS, LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL THOSE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...

SOUTH FLORIDA SURFACE FLOW TODAY, WHICH WILL BE A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE LAKE
REGION, WILL PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE INTERIOR
AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE A
LITTLE STEEPER, HOWEVER THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY CLIMB ABOVE 15KFT
FOR THE FIRST TINE IN A FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN STORMS CAN PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE PANHANDLE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GA/SC COAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS POKES
DEEPER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WIND PROFILE WILL THEN ONLY BE
GOVERNED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH DEEPER, ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE AREA OF MOST
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, POPS WILL STILL
REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS INCREASINGLY
WEAKER SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

LONG TERM (THU-MON)...

SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE AND NAVY
MODEL STILL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF DRY AIR (SAHARAN AIR
LAYER) APPROACHING NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, LIMITING THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT PERHAPS ALLOWING THEM TO PACK A LITTLE MORE
OF A PUNCH. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH
OOZE BACK DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/GULF
OF MEXICO RIDGE IS DIVIDED. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND/FORECAST AS THE DRY LAYER DEPARTS.

MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  92  78 /  40  40  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  77  90  80 /  40  30  30  20
MIAMI            90  78  91  79 /  40  20  30  20
NAPLES           90  76  91  76 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 031133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SSE-
SSW SURFACE WIND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AROUND 15-17Z. THESE CELLS WILL THEN
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH SO JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. THUS, LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL THOSE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...

SOUTH FLORIDA SURFACE FLOW TODAY, WHICH WILL BE A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE LAKE
REGION, WILL PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE INTERIOR
AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE A
LITTLE STEEPER, HOWEVER THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY CLIMB ABOVE 15KFT
FOR THE FIRST TINE IN A FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN STORMS CAN PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE PANHANDLE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GA/SC COAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS POKES
DEEPER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WIND PROFILE WILL THEN ONLY BE
GOVERNED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH DEEPER, ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE AREA OF MOST
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, POPS WILL STILL
REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS INCREASINGLY
WEAKER SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

LONG TERM (THU-MON)...

SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE AND NAVY
MODEL STILL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF DRY AIR (SAHARAN AIR
LAYER) APPROACHING NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, LIMITING THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT PERHAPS ALLOWING THEM TO PACK A LITTLE MORE
OF A PUNCH. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH
OOZE BACK DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/GULF
OF MEXICO RIDGE IS DIVIDED. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND/FORECAST AS THE DRY LAYER DEPARTS.

MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  92  78 /  40  40  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  77  90  80 /  40  30  30  20
MIAMI            90  78  91  79 /  40  20  30  20
NAPLES           90  76  91  76 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KKEY 030911
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
511 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE FLORIDA KEYS
IN A DEEP COL REGION BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONES TO THE EAST AND
WEST...THE POLAR WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH...AND THE TROPICAL TRADES
TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
IS VERY WEAK AND RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT COMPARED TO FORCING ON THE
MESOSCALE. THE VERY WARM EARLY AUGUST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND GULF WARM POOL REGION YIELD WIDESPREAD
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OLD
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO BEYOND FIVE FATHOMS. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES. SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM DECAYING
NIMBOSTRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS HAD OCCURRED EARLIER HERE AT THE
WEATHER OFFICE IN KEY WEST...AROUND 200 AM EDT. AIR TEMPERATURES IN
MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES AT THIS HOUR ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. WINDS OVER LAND RANGE FROM NEAR
CALM IN ISLAND INTERIORS TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST. OVER WATER...WINDS HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO MAINLY SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS.

FORECASTS -- THE PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE CHANGES OF INTEREST RELATE TO
THE FORTIFICATION AND WESTWARD EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE ANTICYCLONE ONCE AGAIN WEAKENS AND
SPLITS. THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLD-CORE CYCLONE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT
OVER THE BAHAMAS PER GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE MOISTURE CHANNEL
ANIMATIONS...IS QUITE WEAK AND SHALLOW. AS THIS WEAK UPPER CYCLONE
MIGRATES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT THE SOUTHERN...HIGH-ALTITUDE FLANKS
OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IT MAY ENHANCE LAPSE RATES AND
POTENTIAL BUOYANCY LOCALLY FOR A TIME TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WE
CONSEQUENTLY HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE
PERIODS.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND AT LEAST SOME MESOSCALE LIFT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
HORIZON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR EITHER ASCENT OR DESCENT. AS A RESULT...LOW-
PREDICTABILTIY NUANCES IN LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY MODULATORS OF DAILY AND NIGHTLY RAINFALL PATTERNS...
WITH OVERALL COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS REMAINING
QUITE LOW.

WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THREE OUT OF THE LAST FOUR DAYS IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR NONSUPERCELL...MISOCYCLONIC SPOUTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
PERHAPS MORE SO TODAY AND TUESDAY RATHER THAN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR PEAK SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE NOT HAD A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE KEYS SINCE MID-
JUNE...AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY THIS WEEK. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BREEZES WILL FRESHEN SOME FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ZONES COVERING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
START OUT LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...BECOMING EASTERLY THIS
EVENING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  81  91  82 / 20 30 30 20
MARATHON  93  81  93  82 / 20 30 30 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 030911
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
511 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWS THE FLORIDA KEYS
IN A DEEP COL REGION BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONES TO THE EAST AND
WEST...THE POLAR WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH...AND THE TROPICAL TRADES
TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...LARGE-SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
IS VERY WEAK AND RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT COMPARED TO FORCING ON THE
MESOSCALE. THE VERY WARM EARLY AUGUST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND GULF WARM POOL REGION YIELD WIDESPREAD
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE.

CURRENTLY...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AN OLD
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO BEYOND FIVE FATHOMS. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS
FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES. SOME LIGHT RAIN FROM DECAYING
NIMBOSTRATUS AND ALTOSTRATUS HAD OCCURRED EARLIER HERE AT THE
WEATHER OFFICE IN KEY WEST...AROUND 200 AM EDT. AIR TEMPERATURES IN
MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES AT THIS HOUR ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. WINDS OVER LAND RANGE FROM NEAR
CALM IN ISLAND INTERIORS TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST. OVER WATER...WINDS HAVE
TRANSITIONED TO MAINLY SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS.

FORECASTS -- THE PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE CHANGES OF INTEREST RELATE TO
THE FORTIFICATION AND WESTWARD EXTENSION OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR MAINLY FROM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE ANTICYCLONE ONCE AGAIN WEAKENS AND
SPLITS. THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLD-CORE CYCLONE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT
OVER THE BAHAMAS PER GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE MOISTURE CHANNEL
ANIMATIONS...IS QUITE WEAK AND SHALLOW. AS THIS WEAK UPPER CYCLONE
MIGRATES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT THE SOUTHERN...HIGH-ALTITUDE FLANKS
OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IT MAY ENHANCE LAPSE RATES AND
POTENTIAL BUOYANCY LOCALLY FOR A TIME TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WE
CONSEQUENTLY HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE
PERIODS.

SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND AT LEAST SOME MESOSCALE LIFT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
HORIZON...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR EITHER ASCENT OR DESCENT. AS A RESULT...LOW-
PREDICTABILTIY NUANCES IN LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL
BE THE PRIMARY MODULATORS OF DAILY AND NIGHTLY RAINFALL PATTERNS...
WITH OVERALL COVERAGE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS REMAINING
QUITE LOW.

WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED THREE OUT OF THE LAST FOUR DAYS IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR NONSUPERCELL...MISOCYCLONIC SPOUTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
PERHAPS MORE SO TODAY AND TUESDAY RATHER THAN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

AIR TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR PEAK SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S.
&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE NOT HAD A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE KEYS SINCE MID-
JUNE...AND WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY THIS WEEK. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. BREEZES WILL FRESHEN SOME FROM THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ZONES COVERING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
START OUT LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...BECOMING EASTERLY THIS
EVENING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  81  91  82 / 20 30 30 20
MARATHON  93  81  93  82 / 20 30 30 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KJAX 030844
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING)...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FL BIG BEND
FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE MODELS KEEP ATTEMPTING TO HAVE THIS
LOW DRIFT THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE RAIN
FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN PATH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE THE LOW IS PROVIDING DECENT CONVERGENCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE FROM WPC
IS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE
CONVERGENT BAND FORMING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW PUSHING EAST
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
LIMITED THE COVERAGE FOR MOST OF NE FL/SE GA TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF LOW TRACK. IF
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM QUICKLY INTO THE LOW 90S OVER SE GA
WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES THEN ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-WED)...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE SERN U.S. COAST AND WILL LEAVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW STEERING PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE FL WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE GA WHERE ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER
90S ACROSS SE GA WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES...WHILE THE
EARLIER START TO CONVECTION ACROSS NE FL WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S NEAR CLIMO VALUES.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
EASTERN U.S. TROFINESS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S EXPECTED WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO 105
DEGREES. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY
WINDS/LIGHTNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. VCSH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VCTS CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S-SW AROUND 15 KTS.
GNV WILL SEE SHRA IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND VCTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 4
PM. TIGHT WIND GRADIENT NEAR A SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED ABOVE 20 KTS. AFTERWARDS WIND AND SEAS LOOK TO LOWER TO
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO EXIT ON TUESDAY AND SEAS
AND WINDS TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  97  74 /  30  20  20  20
SSI  86  76  91  78 /  40  20  30  30
JAX  88  76  94  75 /  40  30  50  30
SGJ  86  75  90  76 /  50  40  50  30
GNV  86  74  91  74 /  60  40  40  30
OCF  84  74  90  73 /  70  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WALSH/HESS



000
FXUS62 KJAX 030844
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING)...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FL BIG BEND
FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE MODELS KEEP ATTEMPTING TO HAVE THIS
LOW DRIFT THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE RAIN
FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN PATH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE THE LOW IS PROVIDING DECENT CONVERGENCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE FROM WPC
IS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE
CONVERGENT BAND FORMING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW PUSHING EAST
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
LIMITED THE COVERAGE FOR MOST OF NE FL/SE GA TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF LOW TRACK. IF
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM QUICKLY INTO THE LOW 90S OVER SE GA
WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES THEN ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-WED)...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE SERN U.S. COAST AND WILL LEAVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW STEERING PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE FL WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE GA WHERE ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER
90S ACROSS SE GA WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES...WHILE THE
EARLIER START TO CONVECTION ACROSS NE FL WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S NEAR CLIMO VALUES.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
EASTERN U.S. TROFINESS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S EXPECTED WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO 105
DEGREES. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY
WINDS/LIGHTNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. VCSH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VCTS CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S-SW AROUND 15 KTS.
GNV WILL SEE SHRA IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND VCTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 4
PM. TIGHT WIND GRADIENT NEAR A SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED ABOVE 20 KTS. AFTERWARDS WIND AND SEAS LOOK TO LOWER TO
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO EXIT ON TUESDAY AND SEAS
AND WINDS TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  97  74 /  30  20  20  20
SSI  86  76  91  78 /  40  20  30  30
JAX  88  76  94  75 /  40  30  50  30
SGJ  86  75  90  76 /  50  40  50  30
GNV  86  74  91  74 /  60  40  40  30
OCF  84  74  90  73 /  70  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WALSH/HESS



000
FXUS62 KJAX 030844
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING)...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FL BIG BEND
FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE MODELS KEEP ATTEMPTING TO HAVE THIS
LOW DRIFT THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE RAIN
FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN PATH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE THE LOW IS PROVIDING DECENT CONVERGENCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE FROM WPC
IS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE
CONVERGENT BAND FORMING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW PUSHING EAST
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
LIMITED THE COVERAGE FOR MOST OF NE FL/SE GA TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF LOW TRACK. IF
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM QUICKLY INTO THE LOW 90S OVER SE GA
WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES THEN ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-WED)...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE SERN U.S. COAST AND WILL LEAVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW STEERING PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE FL WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE GA WHERE ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER
90S ACROSS SE GA WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES...WHILE THE
EARLIER START TO CONVECTION ACROSS NE FL WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S NEAR CLIMO VALUES.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
EASTERN U.S. TROFINESS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S EXPECTED WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO 105
DEGREES. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY
WINDS/LIGHTNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. VCSH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VCTS CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S-SW AROUND 15 KTS.
GNV WILL SEE SHRA IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND VCTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 4
PM. TIGHT WIND GRADIENT NEAR A SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED ABOVE 20 KTS. AFTERWARDS WIND AND SEAS LOOK TO LOWER TO
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO EXIT ON TUESDAY AND SEAS
AND WINDS TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  97  74 /  30  20  20  20
SSI  86  76  91  78 /  40  20  30  30
JAX  88  76  94  75 /  40  30  50  30
SGJ  86  75  90  76 /  50  40  50  30
GNV  86  74  91  74 /  60  40  40  30
OCF  84  74  90  73 /  70  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WALSH/HESS



000
FXUS62 KJAX 030844
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
444 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING)...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS REMAINED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FL BIG BEND
FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE MODELS KEEP ATTEMPTING TO HAVE THIS
LOW DRIFT THROUGH OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE RAIN
FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING DUE TO THE UNCERTAIN PATH OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WHILE THE LOW IS PROVIDING DECENT CONVERGENCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN AND LIMITED INSTABILITY. GUIDANCE FROM WPC
IS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE
CONVERGENT BAND FORMING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW PUSHING EAST
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HAVE
LIMITED THE COVERAGE FOR MOST OF NE FL/SE GA TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF LOW TRACK. IF
TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO WARM QUICKLY INTO THE LOW 90S OVER SE GA
WE COULD SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL CHANCES THEN ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-WED)...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE SERN U.S. COAST AND WILL LEAVE SOUTHWEST
FLOW STEERING PATTERN IN ITS WAKE. THIS COMBINED WITH PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NE FL WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ACROSS SE GA WHERE ONLY ISOLD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL STILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MAX TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER
90S ACROSS SE GA WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES...WHILE THE
EARLIER START TO CONVECTION ACROSS NE FL WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS IN
THE LOWER 90S NEAR CLIMO VALUES.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...
EASTERN U.S. TROFINESS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
AND EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. NEAR CLIMO MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S EXPECTED WITH DAILY HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT CLOSE TO 105
DEGREES. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY THREAT
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONGER ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY
WINDS/LIGHTNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. VCSH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH VCTS CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY S-SW AROUND 15 KTS.
GNV WILL SEE SHRA IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS AND VCTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH 4
PM. TIGHT WIND GRADIENT NEAR A SURFACE LOW WILL KEEP WINDS
ELEVATED ABOVE 20 KTS. AFTERWARDS WIND AND SEAS LOOK TO LOWER TO
CAUTIONARY LEVELS. SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO EXIT ON TUESDAY AND SEAS
AND WINDS TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  74  97  74 /  30  20  20  20
SSI  86  76  91  78 /  40  20  30  30
JAX  88  76  94  75 /  40  30  50  30
SGJ  86  75  90  76 /  50  40  50  30
GNV  86  74  91  74 /  60  40  40  30
OCF  84  74  90  73 /  70  50  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WALSH/HESS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 030809
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...

SOUTH FLORIDA SURFACE FLOW TODAY, WHICH WILL BE A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE LAKE
REGION, WILL PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE INTERIOR
AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE A
LITTLE STEEPER, HOWEVER THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY CLIMB ABOVE 15KFT
FOR THE FIRST TINE IN A FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN STORMS CAN PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE PANHANDLE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GA/SC COAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS POKES
DEEPER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WIND PROFILE WILL THEN ONLY BE
GOVERNED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH DEEPER, ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE AREA OF MOST
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, POPS WILL STILL
REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS INCREASINGLY
WEAKER SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...

SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE AND NAVY
MODEL STILL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF DRY AIR (SAHARAN AIR
LAYER) APPROACHING NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, LIMITING THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT PERHAPS ALLOWING THEM TO PACK A LITTLE MORE
OF A PUNCH. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH
OOZE BACK DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/GULF
OF MEXICO RIDGE IS DIVIDED. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND/FORECAST AS THE DRY LAYER DEPARTS.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  92  78 /  40  40  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  77  90  80 /  40  30  30  20
MIAMI            90  78  91  79 /  40  20  30  20
NAPLES           90  76  91  76 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 030809
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...

SOUTH FLORIDA SURFACE FLOW TODAY, WHICH WILL BE A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE LAKE
REGION, WILL PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE INTERIOR
AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE A
LITTLE STEEPER, HOWEVER THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY CLIMB ABOVE 15KFT
FOR THE FIRST TINE IN A FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN STORMS CAN PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE PANHANDLE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GA/SC COAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS POKES
DEEPER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WIND PROFILE WILL THEN ONLY BE
GOVERNED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH DEEPER, ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE AREA OF MOST
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, POPS WILL STILL
REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS INCREASINGLY
WEAKER SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...

SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE AND NAVY
MODEL STILL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF DRY AIR (SAHARAN AIR
LAYER) APPROACHING NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, LIMITING THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT PERHAPS ALLOWING THEM TO PACK A LITTLE MORE
OF A PUNCH. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH
OOZE BACK DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/GULF
OF MEXICO RIDGE IS DIVIDED. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND/FORECAST AS THE DRY LAYER DEPARTS.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  92  78 /  40  40  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  77  90  80 /  40  30  30  20
MIAMI            90  78  91  79 /  40  20  30  20
NAPLES           90  76  91  76 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 030809
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...

SOUTH FLORIDA SURFACE FLOW TODAY, WHICH WILL BE A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE LAKE
REGION, WILL PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE INTERIOR
AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE A
LITTLE STEEPER, HOWEVER THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY CLIMB ABOVE 15KFT
FOR THE FIRST TINE IN A FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN STORMS CAN PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE PANHANDLE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GA/SC COAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS POKES
DEEPER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WIND PROFILE WILL THEN ONLY BE
GOVERNED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH DEEPER, ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE AREA OF MOST
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, POPS WILL STILL
REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS INCREASINGLY
WEAKER SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

.LONG TERM (THU-MON)...

SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE AND NAVY
MODEL STILL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF DRY AIR (SAHARAN AIR
LAYER) APPROACHING NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, LIMITING THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT PERHAPS ALLOWING THEM TO PACK A LITTLE MORE
OF A PUNCH. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH
OOZE BACK DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/GULF
OF MEXICO RIDGE IS DIVIDED. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND/FORECAST AS THE DRY LAYER DEPARTS.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  92  78 /  40  40  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  77  90  80 /  40  30  30  20
MIAMI            90  78  91  79 /  40  20  30  20
NAPLES           90  76  91  76 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KTAE 030757
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Weak surface low has moved inland over the southeastern Big Bend
this morning and is expected to continue to move steadily northeast
through the day. Best rain chances for today will be over the far
eastern zones, associated with the surface low and its trailing band
of deep layer moisture. However, risk of flooding rain has
diminished so will drop the remaining Flash Flood Watch.

Elsewhere, a drier low level airmass will filter into the region
today in the wake of the surface low. Expect dewpoints to drop into
the upper 60s to near 70s by this afternoon for much of the region.
This will limit the potential for afternoon thunderstorms,
especially across SW Georgia into SE Alabama. The limited cloud
cover will allow for hot temperatures to return, with upper 90s
returning for this afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
With the surface low continuing to move further northeast of the
region overnight, expect only scattered storms across the
Southeast Florida Big Bend tonight. By Tuesday, the subtropical
ridge will begin to build back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will
allow for mainly scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the
warmer side during the short term period with highs mainly in the
mid 90s inland, with a few spots possibly in the upper 90s,
particularly across Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Model guidance shows the next storm system moving into the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching the
region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north of
the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday through the end
of the period. High temperatures late in the long term period
will drop back into the lower 90s as convection increases.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] IFR cigs will impact KVLD, KABY, and possible
KTLH through mid to late morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
foreast to prevail with limited chances for afternoon
thunderstorms.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory level winds and seas will continue over the eastern legs
through this morning when the gradient will begin to relax.
Thereafter, high pressure building back over the Eastern Gulf will
result in low winds and seas through the next few days.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A drier low-level airmass will allow RH values to drop into the
lower 30s across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. However, no Red Flag
conditions are anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...
With the threat for heavy rain coming to an end, focus for the
next couple of days will be remaining river flooding in the
Southeast Florida Big Bend. The Steinhatchee River is in the
process of cresting at the gage just north of US-19 around 15.6
feet. The river will remain above flood stage through Tuesday.

Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected. Areal flooding across
Dixie County will gradually subside over the next couple of days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  75  96  75  94 /  40  20  40  20  40
Panama City   90  77  90  78  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
Dothan        98  72  97  74  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
Albany        97  72  97  74  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  40  20  40
Cross City    89  76  91  76  91 /  40  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  91  80  90  79  89 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EDT this morning FOR
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



000
FXUS62 KTAE 030757
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Weak surface low has moved inland over the southeastern Big Bend
this morning and is expected to continue to move steadily northeast
through the day. Best rain chances for today will be over the far
eastern zones, associated with the surface low and its trailing band
of deep layer moisture. However, risk of flooding rain has
diminished so will drop the remaining Flash Flood Watch.

Elsewhere, a drier low level airmass will filter into the region
today in the wake of the surface low. Expect dewpoints to drop into
the upper 60s to near 70s by this afternoon for much of the region.
This will limit the potential for afternoon thunderstorms,
especially across SW Georgia into SE Alabama. The limited cloud
cover will allow for hot temperatures to return, with upper 90s
returning for this afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
With the surface low continuing to move further northeast of the
region overnight, expect only scattered storms across the
Southeast Florida Big Bend tonight. By Tuesday, the subtropical
ridge will begin to build back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will
allow for mainly scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the
warmer side during the short term period with highs mainly in the
mid 90s inland, with a few spots possibly in the upper 90s,
particularly across Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Model guidance shows the next storm system moving into the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching the
region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north of
the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday through the end
of the period. High temperatures late in the long term period
will drop back into the lower 90s as convection increases.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] IFR cigs will impact KVLD, KABY, and possible
KTLH through mid to late morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
foreast to prevail with limited chances for afternoon
thunderstorms.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory level winds and seas will continue over the eastern legs
through this morning when the gradient will begin to relax.
Thereafter, high pressure building back over the Eastern Gulf will
result in low winds and seas through the next few days.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A drier low-level airmass will allow RH values to drop into the
lower 30s across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. However, no Red Flag
conditions are anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...
With the threat for heavy rain coming to an end, focus for the
next couple of days will be remaining river flooding in the
Southeast Florida Big Bend. The Steinhatchee River is in the
process of cresting at the gage just north of US-19 around 15.6
feet. The river will remain above flood stage through Tuesday.

Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected. Areal flooding across
Dixie County will gradually subside over the next couple of days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  75  96  75  94 /  40  20  40  20  40
Panama City   90  77  90  78  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
Dothan        98  72  97  74  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
Albany        97  72  97  74  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  40  20  40
Cross City    89  76  91  76  91 /  40  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  91  80  90  79  89 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EDT this morning FOR
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



000
FXUS62 KTAE 030757
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Weak surface low has moved inland over the southeastern Big Bend
this morning and is expected to continue to move steadily northeast
through the day. Best rain chances for today will be over the far
eastern zones, associated with the surface low and its trailing band
of deep layer moisture. However, risk of flooding rain has
diminished so will drop the remaining Flash Flood Watch.

Elsewhere, a drier low level airmass will filter into the region
today in the wake of the surface low. Expect dewpoints to drop into
the upper 60s to near 70s by this afternoon for much of the region.
This will limit the potential for afternoon thunderstorms,
especially across SW Georgia into SE Alabama. The limited cloud
cover will allow for hot temperatures to return, with upper 90s
returning for this afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
With the surface low continuing to move further northeast of the
region overnight, expect only scattered storms across the
Southeast Florida Big Bend tonight. By Tuesday, the subtropical
ridge will begin to build back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will
allow for mainly scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the
warmer side during the short term period with highs mainly in the
mid 90s inland, with a few spots possibly in the upper 90s,
particularly across Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Model guidance shows the next storm system moving into the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching the
region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north of
the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday through the end
of the period. High temperatures late in the long term period
will drop back into the lower 90s as convection increases.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] IFR cigs will impact KVLD, KABY, and possible
KTLH through mid to late morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
foreast to prevail with limited chances for afternoon
thunderstorms.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory level winds and seas will continue over the eastern legs
through this morning when the gradient will begin to relax.
Thereafter, high pressure building back over the Eastern Gulf will
result in low winds and seas through the next few days.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A drier low-level airmass will allow RH values to drop into the
lower 30s across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. However, no Red Flag
conditions are anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...
With the threat for heavy rain coming to an end, focus for the
next couple of days will be remaining river flooding in the
Southeast Florida Big Bend. The Steinhatchee River is in the
process of cresting at the gage just north of US-19 around 15.6
feet. The river will remain above flood stage through Tuesday.

Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected. Areal flooding across
Dixie County will gradually subside over the next couple of days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  75  96  75  94 /  40  20  40  20  40
Panama City   90  77  90  78  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
Dothan        98  72  97  74  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
Albany        97  72  97  74  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  40  20  40
Cross City    89  76  91  76  91 /  40  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  91  80  90  79  89 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EDT this morning FOR
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



000
FXUS62 KTAE 030757
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Weak surface low has moved inland over the southeastern Big Bend
this morning and is expected to continue to move steadily northeast
through the day. Best rain chances for today will be over the far
eastern zones, associated with the surface low and its trailing band
of deep layer moisture. However, risk of flooding rain has
diminished so will drop the remaining Flash Flood Watch.

Elsewhere, a drier low level airmass will filter into the region
today in the wake of the surface low. Expect dewpoints to drop into
the upper 60s to near 70s by this afternoon for much of the region.
This will limit the potential for afternoon thunderstorms,
especially across SW Georgia into SE Alabama. The limited cloud
cover will allow for hot temperatures to return, with upper 90s
returning for this afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
With the surface low continuing to move further northeast of the
region overnight, expect only scattered storms across the
Southeast Florida Big Bend tonight. By Tuesday, the subtropical
ridge will begin to build back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will
allow for mainly scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the
warmer side during the short term period with highs mainly in the
mid 90s inland, with a few spots possibly in the upper 90s,
particularly across Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Model guidance shows the next storm system moving into the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching the
region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north of
the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday through the end
of the period. High temperatures late in the long term period
will drop back into the lower 90s as convection increases.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] IFR cigs will impact KVLD, KABY, and possible
KTLH through mid to late morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
foreast to prevail with limited chances for afternoon
thunderstorms.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory level winds and seas will continue over the eastern legs
through this morning when the gradient will begin to relax.
Thereafter, high pressure building back over the Eastern Gulf will
result in low winds and seas through the next few days.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A drier low-level airmass will allow RH values to drop into the
lower 30s across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. However, no Red Flag
conditions are anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...
With the threat for heavy rain coming to an end, focus for the
next couple of days will be remaining river flooding in the
Southeast Florida Big Bend. The Steinhatchee River is in the
process of cresting at the gage just north of US-19 around 15.6
feet. The river will remain above flood stage through Tuesday.

Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected. Areal flooding across
Dixie County will gradually subside over the next couple of days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  75  96  75  94 /  40  20  40  20  40
Panama City   90  77  90  78  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
Dothan        98  72  97  74  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
Albany        97  72  97  74  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  40  20  40
Cross City    89  76  91  76  91 /  40  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  91  80  90  79  89 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EDT this morning FOR
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



000
FXUS62 KTAE 030757
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
357 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Weak surface low has moved inland over the southeastern Big Bend
this morning and is expected to continue to move steadily northeast
through the day. Best rain chances for today will be over the far
eastern zones, associated with the surface low and its trailing band
of deep layer moisture. However, risk of flooding rain has
diminished so will drop the remaining Flash Flood Watch.

Elsewhere, a drier low level airmass will filter into the region
today in the wake of the surface low. Expect dewpoints to drop into
the upper 60s to near 70s by this afternoon for much of the region.
This will limit the potential for afternoon thunderstorms,
especially across SW Georgia into SE Alabama. The limited cloud
cover will allow for hot temperatures to return, with upper 90s
returning for this afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
With the surface low continuing to move further northeast of the
region overnight, expect only scattered storms across the
Southeast Florida Big Bend tonight. By Tuesday, the subtropical
ridge will begin to build back westward across the Florida
Peninsula and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern will
allow for mainly scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the
warmer side during the short term period with highs mainly in the
mid 90s inland, with a few spots possibly in the upper 90s,
particularly across Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
Model guidance shows the next storm system moving into the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and a cold front approaching the
region by Saturday. As this frontal boundary stalls just north of
the region through the weekend, it will be a focus for increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms from Saturday through the end
of the period. High temperatures late in the long term period
will drop back into the lower 90s as convection increases.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] IFR cigs will impact KVLD, KABY, and possible
KTLH through mid to late morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions are
foreast to prevail with limited chances for afternoon
thunderstorms.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory level winds and seas will continue over the eastern legs
through this morning when the gradient will begin to relax.
Thereafter, high pressure building back over the Eastern Gulf will
result in low winds and seas through the next few days.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A drier low-level airmass will allow RH values to drop into the
lower 30s across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. However, no Red Flag
conditions are anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...
With the threat for heavy rain coming to an end, focus for the
next couple of days will be remaining river flooding in the
Southeast Florida Big Bend. The Steinhatchee River is in the
process of cresting at the gage just north of US-19 around 15.6
feet. The river will remain above flood stage through Tuesday.

Elsewhere, no river flooding is expected. Areal flooding across
Dixie County will gradually subside over the next couple of days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   96  75  96  75  94 /  40  20  40  20  40
Panama City   90  77  90  78  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
Dothan        98  72  97  74  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
Albany        97  72  97  74  95 /  20  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      94  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  40  20  40
Cross City    89  76  91  76  91 /  40  30  50  20  40
Apalachicola  91  80  90  79  89 /  30  20  30  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EDT this morning FOR
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20
     NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



000
FXUS62 KTBW 030727
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
327 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...
PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...
...EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST TODAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY...
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN  STATES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S FINALLY BEGINS
TO WEAKEN SOME AND SHIFT EAST WITH TIME WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE ATLANTIC BUILDING WEST OVER THE PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY AND THEN UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON TUESDAY.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW`S IN THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE) WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THE TROUGH/LOW AND A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW (20+ KNOTS) OFF THE
GULF ENHANCING LOW LEVEL COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT
ONE MORE DAY OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONTINUED RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAUSING ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WELL AS
EXACERBATING THE ONGOING FLOODING FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST.

THE HIGHLY SATURATED GROUND ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE
ONGOING  FLOODING PROBLEMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN
TODAY WARRANTS KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PINELLAS...
HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...AND LEVY COUNTIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE RULE WITHIN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH
THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.

DURING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN SOME AND SHIFT EAST WITH THE
ATTENDANT FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY WASHING OUT ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH RE-BUILDS IN OVER
THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING FROM COASTAL AREAS TO INTERIOR
SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
MOVE INLAND.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AS A BIT MORE SUN IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH FEATURES
IN THE REGION. UPPER TROUGH HOLDS NORTH OF THE REGION WHILE WEAK
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE N CARIBBEAN MID TO
LATE WEEK. SURFACE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PRECIP PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS SWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING BACK SWARD INTO THE S.E. U.S.
WHILE PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS
WILL PUSH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BACK OVER SOUTH FL WITH A RETURN
TO SW FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NWARD IN THE DEEPER
MOIST SW FLOW WHILE SW FL MAY SEE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVE OVER
THE TERMINAL SITES WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE
VFR WILL PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 14 KNOT RANGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 16Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WATERS OFFSHORE LEVY AND
CITRUS COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TONIGHT AND UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY.
THIS TROUGH/LOW COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS IN
SEAS IN THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE FROM TARPON SPRINGS NORTH TO THE
SUWANNEE RIVER WHERE THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...WITH
CAUTIONARY WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
AREA BEACHES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY TODAY...SO
WILL KEEP THE ONGOING RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL VALUES WITH SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH TO
LEVY...SO WILL EXTEND THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD SLOWLY NORTH TO THE
CENTRAL  PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH A LIGHTER SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW (FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH) EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS EACH DAY...WITH AN ENHANCED
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE
20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP DISPERSION INDICES
ELEVATED TODAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE MYAKKA RIVER AT
MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT
WIMAUMA...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...THE ANCLOTE RIVER
AT ELFERS...AND THE HILLSBOROUGH RIVER AT ZEPHYRHILLS. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS ALONG THESE RIVERS
ELEVATED AND IN MINOR FLOOD WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO MAJOR FLOODING LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN WATERS LEVELS...AND UPDATES TO THE ONGOING
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IMMEDIATELY IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT. ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING
STREAMS SHOULD KEEP ALERT TO ANY RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS AND
BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  77  89  77 /  60  30  50  10
FMY  90  75  91  76 /  50  30  50  40
GIF  87  75  90  75 /  60  30  50  40
SRQ  87  76  89  76 /  50  30  40  20
BKV  85  74  89  73 /  70  40  50  20
SPG  86  78  89  78 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS



000
FXUS62 KTBW 030727
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
327 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...
PASCO...PINELLAS...AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...
...EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTH THROUGH THE NATURE COAST TODAY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY...
...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN  STATES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WHILE THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S FINALLY BEGINS
TO WEAKEN SOME AND SHIFT EAST WITH TIME WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE ATLANTIC BUILDING WEST OVER THE PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES
ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF REGION WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY AND THEN UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTH TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON TUESDAY.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW`S IN THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE) WILL
REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THE TROUGH/LOW AND A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW (20+ KNOTS) OFF THE
GULF ENHANCING LOW LEVEL COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL SUPPORT
ONE MORE DAY OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONTINUED RISK OF EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAUSING ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WELL AS
EXACERBATING THE ONGOING FLOODING FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH
THROUGH THE NATURE COAST.

THE HIGHLY SATURATED GROUND ACROSS THE AREA COMBINED WITH THE
ONGOING  FLOODING PROBLEMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN
TODAY WARRANTS KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH FOR PINELLAS...
HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...AND LEVY COUNTIES IN
EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE RULE WITHIN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH
THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.

DURING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. WILL WEAKEN SOME AND SHIFT EAST WITH THE
ATTENDANT FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY WASHING OUT ON
TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH RE-BUILDS IN OVER
THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING OF LATE WITH A
RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS...WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFTING FROM COASTAL AREAS TO INTERIOR
SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
MOVE INLAND.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL ON
TUESDAY AS A BIT MORE SUN IS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE COAST WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
AROUND 80 WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH FEATURES
IN THE REGION. UPPER TROUGH HOLDS NORTH OF THE REGION WHILE WEAK
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE N CARIBBEAN MID TO
LATE WEEK. SURFACE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A
RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PRECIP PATTERN WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION ALONG SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. WARM DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS SWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE
EAST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING BACK SWARD INTO THE S.E. U.S.
WHILE PUSHING A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS
WILL PUSH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BACK OVER SOUTH FL WITH A RETURN
TO SW FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION NWARD IN THE DEEPER
MOIST SW FLOW WHILE SW FL MAY SEE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHRA/TSRA THAT MOVE OVER
THE TERMINAL SITES WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE
VFR WILL PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 14 KNOT RANGE EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AFTER 16Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WATERS OFFSHORE LEVY AND
CITRUS COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA TODAY AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TONIGHT AND UP ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY.
THIS TROUGH/LOW COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH WINDS IN
SEAS IN THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE FROM TARPON SPRINGS NORTH TO THE
SUWANNEE RIVER WHERE THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE...WITH
CAUTIONARY WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. THE
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL FAVOR A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
AREA BEACHES FROM PINELLAS COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY TODAY...SO
WILL KEEP THE ONGOING RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL VALUES WITH SOME
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM PASCO COUNTY NORTH TO
LEVY...SO WILL EXTEND THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BUILD SLOWLY NORTH TO THE
CENTRAL  PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH A LIGHTER SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW (FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH) EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS EACH DAY...WITH AN ENHANCED
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MODERATE
20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL KEEP DISPERSION INDICES
ELEVATED TODAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE MYAKKA RIVER AT
MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK...THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT
WIMAUMA...CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS...THE ANCLOTE RIVER
AT ELFERS...AND THE HILLSBOROUGH RIVER AT ZEPHYRHILLS. ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY WILL KEEP WATER LEVELS ALONG THESE RIVERS
ELEVATED AND IN MINOR FLOOD WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS
EXPECTED TO RISE TO MAJOR FLOODING LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ALL RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT RISES IN WATERS LEVELS...AND UPDATES TO THE ONGOING
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED IMMEDIATELY IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT. ALL RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS OR FASTER FLOWING
STREAMS SHOULD KEEP ALERT TO ANY RAPID RISES IN WATER LEVELS AND
BE READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  77  89  77 /  60  30  50  10
FMY  90  75  91  76 /  50  30  50  40
GIF  87  75  90  75 /  60  30  50  40
SRQ  87  76  89  76 /  50  30  40  20
BKV  85  74  89  73 /  70  40  50  20
SPG  86  78  89  78 /  60  30  40  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
     TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS




000
FXUS62 KMLB 030714
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
314 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TODAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE ~1008 MBS NEAR CROSS CITY ACROSS
THE ERN FL BIG BEND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY TIGHTENING
ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LEESBURG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
TO 15-20 MPH AT 2 AM. 00Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE H9-H8
LOW CENTER ENE TWD THE SE GA BY EARLY EVENING. CURRENT CONVECTION
OFF THE FL WEST COAST MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY SHOULD TRANSITION
INLAND TWD LAKE COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NRN SECTIONS
INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. APPEARS STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
INITIAL DRY SLOT WITH LOWER PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO TO ST LUCIE COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW SO TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE LEE OF THE
LAKE WITH SW LOW LVL FLOW BUT STILL 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SINCE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH INTO MARTIN
COUNTY AND ALSO FROM THE WEST INTO THE TREASURE COAST LATER TODAY.
MODEL WIND FIELDS PEAK NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LAYER TODAY ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES SO SHOULD SEE FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER AND STORM MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS
THE NRN AREAS FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE WILL
ADVERTISE 60-70 PCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL KEEP FAR SRN
AREAS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE. EXPECT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH...LIGHTNING AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN AREAS TO AROUND
90/LOWER 90S FOR SRN SECTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
MORNING SUN AND OFFSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE LOW LVL LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
GA COAST WITH A TRAILING BAND OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD
SEE SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF
A KISSIMMEE TO SCOTTSMOOR LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT FOR SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...MODELS HAVE SFC LOW NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL TO 30-40 PERCENT TOWARD BREVARD COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY
WITH A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. POPS RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT INLAND.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA SHOULD AFFECT NRN TERMINALS 16Z-
20Z...AND SRN TERMINALS 19Z-23Z AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM NR KCTY
THIS MORNING. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 25-35 KTS PSBL WITH CONVECTION AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE ENE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...S/SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SCEC HEADLINES NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT WITH
WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS OFFSHORE AS SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES STEEPEN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM MID DAY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

TUE-WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
WED. WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW WILL BECOME S/SE INTO WED WITH SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.

THU-FRI...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  73  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  87  74  91  74 /  70  40  50  30
MLB  91  74  90  75 /  60  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  91  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  86  76  91  76 /  70  40  60  30
SFB  86  74  91  75 /  70  40  60  30
ORL  86  75  91  76 /  70  40  50  30
FPR  91  72  91  74 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 030714
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
314 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TODAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE ~1008 MBS NEAR CROSS CITY ACROSS
THE ERN FL BIG BEND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY TIGHTENING
ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LEESBURG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
TO 15-20 MPH AT 2 AM. 00Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE H9-H8
LOW CENTER ENE TWD THE SE GA BY EARLY EVENING. CURRENT CONVECTION
OFF THE FL WEST COAST MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY SHOULD TRANSITION
INLAND TWD LAKE COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NRN SECTIONS
INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. APPEARS STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
INITIAL DRY SLOT WITH LOWER PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO TO ST LUCIE COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW SO TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE LEE OF THE
LAKE WITH SW LOW LVL FLOW BUT STILL 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SINCE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH INTO MARTIN
COUNTY AND ALSO FROM THE WEST INTO THE TREASURE COAST LATER TODAY.
MODEL WIND FIELDS PEAK NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LAYER TODAY ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES SO SHOULD SEE FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER AND STORM MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS
THE NRN AREAS FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE WILL
ADVERTISE 60-70 PCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL KEEP FAR SRN
AREAS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE. EXPECT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH...LIGHTNING AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN AREAS TO AROUND
90/LOWER 90S FOR SRN SECTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
MORNING SUN AND OFFSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE LOW LVL LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
GA COAST WITH A TRAILING BAND OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD
SEE SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF
A KISSIMMEE TO SCOTTSMOOR LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT FOR SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...MODELS HAVE SFC LOW NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL TO 30-40 PERCENT TOWARD BREVARD COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY
WITH A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. POPS RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT INLAND.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA SHOULD AFFECT NRN TERMINALS 16Z-
20Z...AND SRN TERMINALS 19Z-23Z AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM NR KCTY
THIS MORNING. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 25-35 KTS PSBL WITH CONVECTION AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE ENE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...S/SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SCEC HEADLINES NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT WITH
WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS OFFSHORE AS SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES STEEPEN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM MID DAY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

TUE-WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
WED. WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW WILL BECOME S/SE INTO WED WITH SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.

THU-FRI...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  73  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  87  74  91  74 /  70  40  50  30
MLB  91  74  90  75 /  60  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  91  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  86  76  91  76 /  70  40  60  30
SFB  86  74  91  75 /  70  40  60  30
ORL  86  75  91  76 /  70  40  50  30
FPR  91  72  91  74 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 030714
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
314 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TODAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE ~1008 MBS NEAR CROSS CITY ACROSS
THE ERN FL BIG BEND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY TIGHTENING
ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LEESBURG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
TO 15-20 MPH AT 2 AM. 00Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE H9-H8
LOW CENTER ENE TWD THE SE GA BY EARLY EVENING. CURRENT CONVECTION
OFF THE FL WEST COAST MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY SHOULD TRANSITION
INLAND TWD LAKE COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NRN SECTIONS
INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. APPEARS STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
INITIAL DRY SLOT WITH LOWER PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO TO ST LUCIE COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW SO TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE LEE OF THE
LAKE WITH SW LOW LVL FLOW BUT STILL 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SINCE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH INTO MARTIN
COUNTY AND ALSO FROM THE WEST INTO THE TREASURE COAST LATER TODAY.
MODEL WIND FIELDS PEAK NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LAYER TODAY ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES SO SHOULD SEE FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER AND STORM MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS
THE NRN AREAS FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE WILL
ADVERTISE 60-70 PCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL KEEP FAR SRN
AREAS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE. EXPECT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH...LIGHTNING AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN AREAS TO AROUND
90/LOWER 90S FOR SRN SECTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
MORNING SUN AND OFFSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE LOW LVL LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
GA COAST WITH A TRAILING BAND OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD
SEE SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF
A KISSIMMEE TO SCOTTSMOOR LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT FOR SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...MODELS HAVE SFC LOW NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL TO 30-40 PERCENT TOWARD BREVARD COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY
WITH A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. POPS RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT INLAND.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA SHOULD AFFECT NRN TERMINALS 16Z-
20Z...AND SRN TERMINALS 19Z-23Z AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM NR KCTY
THIS MORNING. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 25-35 KTS PSBL WITH CONVECTION AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE ENE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...S/SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SCEC HEADLINES NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT WITH
WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS OFFSHORE AS SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES STEEPEN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM MID DAY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

TUE-WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
WED. WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW WILL BECOME S/SE INTO WED WITH SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.

THU-FRI...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  73  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  87  74  91  74 /  70  40  50  30
MLB  91  74  90  75 /  60  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  91  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  86  76  91  76 /  70  40  60  30
SFB  86  74  91  75 /  70  40  60  30
ORL  86  75  91  76 /  70  40  50  30
FPR  91  72  91  74 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 030714
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
314 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TODAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE ~1008 MBS NEAR CROSS CITY ACROSS
THE ERN FL BIG BEND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY TIGHTENING
ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LEESBURG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
TO 15-20 MPH AT 2 AM. 00Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE H9-H8
LOW CENTER ENE TWD THE SE GA BY EARLY EVENING. CURRENT CONVECTION
OFF THE FL WEST COAST MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY SHOULD TRANSITION
INLAND TWD LAKE COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NRN SECTIONS
INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. APPEARS STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
INITIAL DRY SLOT WITH LOWER PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO TO ST LUCIE COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW SO TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE LEE OF THE
LAKE WITH SW LOW LVL FLOW BUT STILL 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SINCE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH INTO MARTIN
COUNTY AND ALSO FROM THE WEST INTO THE TREASURE COAST LATER TODAY.
MODEL WIND FIELDS PEAK NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LAYER TODAY ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES SO SHOULD SEE FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER AND STORM MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS
THE NRN AREAS FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE WILL
ADVERTISE 60-70 PCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL KEEP FAR SRN
AREAS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE. EXPECT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH...LIGHTNING AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN AREAS TO AROUND
90/LOWER 90S FOR SRN SECTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
MORNING SUN AND OFFSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE LOW LVL LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
GA COAST WITH A TRAILING BAND OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD
SEE SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF
A KISSIMMEE TO SCOTTSMOOR LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT FOR SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...MODELS HAVE SFC LOW NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL TO 30-40 PERCENT TOWARD BREVARD COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY
WITH A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. POPS RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT INLAND.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA SHOULD AFFECT NRN TERMINALS 16Z-
20Z...AND SRN TERMINALS 19Z-23Z AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM NR KCTY
THIS MORNING. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 25-35 KTS PSBL WITH CONVECTION AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE ENE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...S/SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SCEC HEADLINES NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT WITH
WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS OFFSHORE AS SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES STEEPEN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM MID DAY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

TUE-WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
WED. WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW WILL BECOME S/SE INTO WED WITH SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.

THU-FRI...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  73  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  87  74  91  74 /  70  40  50  30
MLB  91  74  90  75 /  60  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  91  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  86  76  91  76 /  70  40  60  30
SFB  86  74  91  75 /  70  40  60  30
ORL  86  75  91  76 /  70  40  50  30
FPR  91  72  91  74 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 030714
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
314 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TODAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE ~1008 MBS NEAR CROSS CITY ACROSS
THE ERN FL BIG BEND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY TIGHTENING
ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LEESBURG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
TO 15-20 MPH AT 2 AM. 00Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE H9-H8
LOW CENTER ENE TWD THE SE GA BY EARLY EVENING. CURRENT CONVECTION
OFF THE FL WEST COAST MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY SHOULD TRANSITION
INLAND TWD LAKE COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NRN SECTIONS
INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. APPEARS STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
INITIAL DRY SLOT WITH LOWER PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO TO ST LUCIE COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW SO TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE LEE OF THE
LAKE WITH SW LOW LVL FLOW BUT STILL 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SINCE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH INTO MARTIN
COUNTY AND ALSO FROM THE WEST INTO THE TREASURE COAST LATER TODAY.
MODEL WIND FIELDS PEAK NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LAYER TODAY ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES SO SHOULD SEE FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER AND STORM MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS
THE NRN AREAS FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE WILL
ADVERTISE 60-70 PCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL KEEP FAR SRN
AREAS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE. EXPECT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH...LIGHTNING AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN AREAS TO AROUND
90/LOWER 90S FOR SRN SECTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
MORNING SUN AND OFFSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE LOW LVL LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
GA COAST WITH A TRAILING BAND OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD
SEE SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF
A KISSIMMEE TO SCOTTSMOOR LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT FOR SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...MODELS HAVE SFC LOW NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL TO 30-40 PERCENT TOWARD BREVARD COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY
WITH A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. POPS RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT INLAND.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA SHOULD AFFECT NRN TERMINALS 16Z-
20Z...AND SRN TERMINALS 19Z-23Z AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM NR KCTY
THIS MORNING. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 25-35 KTS PSBL WITH CONVECTION AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE ENE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...S/SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SCEC HEADLINES NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT WITH
WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS OFFSHORE AS SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES STEEPEN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM MID DAY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

TUE-WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
WED. WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW WILL BECOME S/SE INTO WED WITH SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.

THU-FRI...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  73  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  87  74  91  74 /  70  40  50  30
MLB  91  74  90  75 /  60  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  91  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  86  76  91  76 /  70  40  60  30
SFB  86  74  91  75 /  70  40  60  30
ORL  86  75  91  76 /  70  40  50  30
FPR  91  72  91  74 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 030714
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
314 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY/TODAY...SFC LOW PRESSURE ~1008 MBS NEAR CROSS CITY ACROSS
THE ERN FL BIG BEND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE WILL TRACK SLOWLY
NE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ALREADY TIGHTENING
ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING WITH LEESBURG WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
TO 15-20 MPH AT 2 AM. 00Z GFS/NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE H9-H8
LOW CENTER ENE TWD THE SE GA BY EARLY EVENING. CURRENT CONVECTION
OFF THE FL WEST COAST MAINLY NORTH OF TAMPA BAY SHOULD TRANSITION
INLAND TWD LAKE COUNTY LATER THIS MORNING AND ACROSS NRN SECTIONS
INTO EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. APPEARS STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SRN
SECTIONS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH AN
INITIAL DRY SLOT WITH LOWER PWATS AROUND 1.7 INCHES FROM LAKE
OKEECHOBEE TO TO ST LUCIE COUNTY. THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE UNDER THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW SO TRIMMED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE LEE OF THE
LAKE WITH SW LOW LVL FLOW BUT STILL 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
SINCE SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTH INTO MARTIN
COUNTY AND ALSO FROM THE WEST INTO THE TREASURE COAST LATER TODAY.
MODEL WIND FIELDS PEAK NEAR 30 KNOTS IN THE H9-H8 LAYER TODAY ACROSS
THE NRN ZONES SO SHOULD SEE FAIRLY RAPID SHOWER AND STORM MOVEMENT
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN ACROSS
THE NRN AREAS FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD COUNTY NWD WHERE WILL
ADVERTISE 60-70 PCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL KEEP FAR SRN
AREAS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE. EXPECT SOME STRONG STORMS WITH WIND
GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH...LIGHTNING AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN AREAS TO AROUND
90/LOWER 90S FOR SRN SECTIONS WHICH SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
MORNING SUN AND OFFSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...THE LOW LVL LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
GA COAST WITH A TRAILING BAND OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD
SEE SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF
A KISSIMMEE TO SCOTTSMOOR LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT FOR SRN AREAS.

TUE-WED...MODELS HAVE SFC LOW NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL TO 30-40 PERCENT TOWARD BREVARD COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.

SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY
WITH A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. POPS RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT INLAND.

HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA SHOULD AFFECT NRN TERMINALS 16Z-
20Z...AND SRN TERMINALS 19Z-23Z AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM NR KCTY
THIS MORNING. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 25-35 KTS PSBL WITH CONVECTION AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE ENE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...S/SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SCEC HEADLINES NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT WITH
WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS OFFSHORE AS SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES STEEPEN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM MID DAY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.

TUE-WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
WED. WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW WILL BECOME S/SE INTO WED WITH SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.

THU-FRI...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  73  90  75 /  70  40  60  30
MCO  87  74  91  74 /  70  40  50  30
MLB  91  74  90  75 /  60  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  91  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  86  76  91  76 /  70  40  60  30
SFB  86  74  91  75 /  70  40  60  30
ORL  86  75  91  76 /  70  40  50  30
FPR  91  72  91  74 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMFL 030532
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND BY LATE MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY WITH A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM NEAR
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AT KAPF...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND BY LATE
MORNING...WITH STORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITE.
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
DISSIPATING. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  79 /  50  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  40  30  40  20
MIAMI            91  78  90  79 /  50  30  40  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  77 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 030532
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND BY LATE MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY WITH A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM NEAR
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AT KAPF...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND BY LATE
MORNING...WITH STORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITE.
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
DISSIPATING. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  79 /  50  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  40  30  40  20
MIAMI            91  78  90  79 /  50  30  40  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  77 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 030532
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND BY LATE MORNING...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY WITH A LIGHT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO FORM NEAR
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AT KAPF...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE INLAND BY LATE
MORNING...WITH STORMS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITE.
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS ONCE AGAIN BEFORE
DISSIPATING. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  91  79 /  50  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  40  30  40  20
MIAMI            91  78  90  79 /  50  30  40  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  77 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 030149
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AREA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS TO MAINTAIN A DEEP AND STEADY
S/SW FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLUG OF DRY H100-H70
AIR HAS WRAPPED ITSELF AROUND THE WRN FLANK OF THE LOW AND INTO THE
SE GOMEX. THE 00Z KEYW/KMFL RAOBS CONFIRM THIS WITH A NOTICEABLY
DRIER H100-H70 LYR THAN POINTS NWD...EVEN KXMR SHOWED A SURPRISINGLY
DRY H100-H70 LYR.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...PRECIP TREND HAS BEEN MINIMAL FOR THE PAST FEW
HRS. LIGHT RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT NETHER A
LARGE RAINSHIELD OVER THE NE GOMEX NOR A SHOWER BAND OVER THE
OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST HAVE MADE ANY SIG MOVES
TOWARD THE CWA.

DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LVLS...THE OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH A SIG AMNT OF MID LVL VORTICITY OVER THE ERN
GOMEX ASSOCD WITH THE LOW. PROXIMITY TO THE RAIN SHIELD ALONE WILL
REQUIRE OVERNIGHT POPS AS THE LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...MID LVL OMEGA FIELDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL FL SUGGEST
PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE NOT UNLIKE THAT ASSOCD WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
AS SUCH...WILL LOWER POPS BY 10PCT ACRS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 03/14Z...S/SW SFC WINDS 5-10MPH...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR
TSRAS N OF KISM-KTIX...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KISM-KTIX. BTWN
03/12Z-03/16Z...SW SFC WINDS INCRG TO 8-13KTS WITH SCT MVFR
SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS. AFT 03/16Z... SW SFC WINDS 10-15KTS WITH OCNL
SFC G20-23KTS N OF KISM-KMLB...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BROAD
SFC LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AREA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS. TIGHTER SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD N OF THE
CAPE MAY ALLOW WINDS TO REACH INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE AS THE LOW
PUSHES ACRS THE ERN PANHANDLE THRU SUNRISE.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT SEA HEIGHTS WHILE GENERATING SHORT PD
WIND CHOP. DATA BUOYS CONFIRMING THIS WITH SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE AND
2-3FT OFFSHORE...DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC. SOME WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY
REACH 3-4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG OF VOLUSIA COUNTY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

BRAGAW



000
FXUS62 KMLB 030149
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AREA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS TO MAINTAIN A DEEP AND STEADY
S/SW FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLUG OF DRY H100-H70
AIR HAS WRAPPED ITSELF AROUND THE WRN FLANK OF THE LOW AND INTO THE
SE GOMEX. THE 00Z KEYW/KMFL RAOBS CONFIRM THIS WITH A NOTICEABLY
DRIER H100-H70 LYR THAN POINTS NWD...EVEN KXMR SHOWED A SURPRISINGLY
DRY H100-H70 LYR.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...PRECIP TREND HAS BEEN MINIMAL FOR THE PAST FEW
HRS. LIGHT RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT NETHER A
LARGE RAINSHIELD OVER THE NE GOMEX NOR A SHOWER BAND OVER THE
OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST HAVE MADE ANY SIG MOVES
TOWARD THE CWA.

DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LVLS...THE OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH A SIG AMNT OF MID LVL VORTICITY OVER THE ERN
GOMEX ASSOCD WITH THE LOW. PROXIMITY TO THE RAIN SHIELD ALONE WILL
REQUIRE OVERNIGHT POPS AS THE LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...MID LVL OMEGA FIELDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL FL SUGGEST
PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE NOT UNLIKE THAT ASSOCD WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
AS SUCH...WILL LOWER POPS BY 10PCT ACRS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 03/14Z...S/SW SFC WINDS 5-10MPH...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR
TSRAS N OF KISM-KTIX...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KISM-KTIX. BTWN
03/12Z-03/16Z...SW SFC WINDS INCRG TO 8-13KTS WITH SCT MVFR
SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS. AFT 03/16Z... SW SFC WINDS 10-15KTS WITH OCNL
SFC G20-23KTS N OF KISM-KMLB...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BROAD
SFC LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AREA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS. TIGHTER SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD N OF THE
CAPE MAY ALLOW WINDS TO REACH INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE AS THE LOW
PUSHES ACRS THE ERN PANHANDLE THRU SUNRISE.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT SEA HEIGHTS WHILE GENERATING SHORT PD
WIND CHOP. DATA BUOYS CONFIRMING THIS WITH SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE AND
2-3FT OFFSHORE...DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC. SOME WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY
REACH 3-4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG OF VOLUSIA COUNTY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

BRAGAW



000
FXUS62 KMLB 030149
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AREA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS TO MAINTAIN A DEEP AND STEADY
S/SW FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLUG OF DRY H100-H70
AIR HAS WRAPPED ITSELF AROUND THE WRN FLANK OF THE LOW AND INTO THE
SE GOMEX. THE 00Z KEYW/KMFL RAOBS CONFIRM THIS WITH A NOTICEABLY
DRIER H100-H70 LYR THAN POINTS NWD...EVEN KXMR SHOWED A SURPRISINGLY
DRY H100-H70 LYR.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...PRECIP TREND HAS BEEN MINIMAL FOR THE PAST FEW
HRS. LIGHT RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT NETHER A
LARGE RAINSHIELD OVER THE NE GOMEX NOR A SHOWER BAND OVER THE
OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST HAVE MADE ANY SIG MOVES
TOWARD THE CWA.

DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LVLS...THE OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH A SIG AMNT OF MID LVL VORTICITY OVER THE ERN
GOMEX ASSOCD WITH THE LOW. PROXIMITY TO THE RAIN SHIELD ALONE WILL
REQUIRE OVERNIGHT POPS AS THE LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...MID LVL OMEGA FIELDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL FL SUGGEST
PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE NOT UNLIKE THAT ASSOCD WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
AS SUCH...WILL LOWER POPS BY 10PCT ACRS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 03/14Z...S/SW SFC WINDS 5-10MPH...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR
TSRAS N OF KISM-KTIX...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KISM-KTIX. BTWN
03/12Z-03/16Z...SW SFC WINDS INCRG TO 8-13KTS WITH SCT MVFR
SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS. AFT 03/16Z... SW SFC WINDS 10-15KTS WITH OCNL
SFC G20-23KTS N OF KISM-KMLB...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BROAD
SFC LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AREA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS. TIGHTER SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD N OF THE
CAPE MAY ALLOW WINDS TO REACH INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE AS THE LOW
PUSHES ACRS THE ERN PANHANDLE THRU SUNRISE.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT SEA HEIGHTS WHILE GENERATING SHORT PD
WIND CHOP. DATA BUOYS CONFIRMING THIS WITH SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE AND
2-3FT OFFSHORE...DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC. SOME WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY
REACH 3-4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG OF VOLUSIA COUNTY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

BRAGAW




000
FXUS62 KMLB 030149
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AREA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS TO MAINTAIN A DEEP AND STEADY
S/SW FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLUG OF DRY H100-H70
AIR HAS WRAPPED ITSELF AROUND THE WRN FLANK OF THE LOW AND INTO THE
SE GOMEX. THE 00Z KEYW/KMFL RAOBS CONFIRM THIS WITH A NOTICEABLY
DRIER H100-H70 LYR THAN POINTS NWD...EVEN KXMR SHOWED A SURPRISINGLY
DRY H100-H70 LYR.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...PRECIP TREND HAS BEEN MINIMAL FOR THE PAST FEW
HRS. LIGHT RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT NETHER A
LARGE RAINSHIELD OVER THE NE GOMEX NOR A SHOWER BAND OVER THE
OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST HAVE MADE ANY SIG MOVES
TOWARD THE CWA.

DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LVLS...THE OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH A SIG AMNT OF MID LVL VORTICITY OVER THE ERN
GOMEX ASSOCD WITH THE LOW. PROXIMITY TO THE RAIN SHIELD ALONE WILL
REQUIRE OVERNIGHT POPS AS THE LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...MID LVL OMEGA FIELDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL FL SUGGEST
PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE NOT UNLIKE THAT ASSOCD WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
AS SUCH...WILL LOWER POPS BY 10PCT ACRS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 03/14Z...S/SW SFC WINDS 5-10MPH...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR
TSRAS N OF KISM-KTIX...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KISM-KTIX. BTWN
03/12Z-03/16Z...SW SFC WINDS INCRG TO 8-13KTS WITH SCT MVFR
SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS. AFT 03/16Z... SW SFC WINDS 10-15KTS WITH OCNL
SFC G20-23KTS N OF KISM-KMLB...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BROAD
SFC LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AREA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS. TIGHTER SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD N OF THE
CAPE MAY ALLOW WINDS TO REACH INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE AS THE LOW
PUSHES ACRS THE ERN PANHANDLE THRU SUNRISE.

THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT SEA HEIGHTS WHILE GENERATING SHORT PD
WIND CHOP. DATA BUOYS CONFIRMING THIS WITH SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE AND
2-3FT OFFSHORE...DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC. SOME WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY
REACH 3-4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG OF VOLUSIA COUNTY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

BRAGAW




000
FXUS62 KTBW 030135
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL EASE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ONSHORE
NORTHERN FL. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS THAT WILL ROTATE ONSHORE WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FL THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE BEST ODDS AND
MOST COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH...A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. CURRENTLY THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS COVER LEVY COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD WARNING IS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW PRESSURE AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM PASCO TO
LEVY WILL SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE. FROM PINELLAS TO LEE THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK VERY GOOD BUT HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TEXT
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z-03/00Z. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS VCNTY SHRA ON THE
GULF SCOOT THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MON...ALLOWING ENOUGH HEATING FOR MORNING SHRA TO BECOME
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR BUT TIMING
IS TRICKY AND WILL MAINTAIN VFR. WINDS SW AND WEST ALTHOUGH BACK
TO SOUTHERLY LATE NIGHT IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
VERY ROBUST WINDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP A BIT LONGER AND
HAVE PUSHED THE ADVISORY INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  86  78  90 /  80  80  40  50
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  30  50
GIF  74  87  74  92 /  50  70  40  50
SRQ  77  87  77  88 /  50  60  40  30
BKV  75  86  74  90 /  90  90  50  50
SPG  77  86  79  89 /  70  80  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA
DATA SERVICES AND HYDROLOGY...007/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 030135
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL EASE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ONSHORE
NORTHERN FL. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS THAT WILL ROTATE ONSHORE WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FL THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE BEST ODDS AND
MOST COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH...A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. CURRENTLY THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS COVER LEVY COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD WARNING IS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW PRESSURE AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM PASCO TO
LEVY WILL SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE. FROM PINELLAS TO LEE THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK VERY GOOD BUT HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TEXT
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z-03/00Z. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS VCNTY SHRA ON THE
GULF SCOOT THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MON...ALLOWING ENOUGH HEATING FOR MORNING SHRA TO BECOME
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR BUT TIMING
IS TRICKY AND WILL MAINTAIN VFR. WINDS SW AND WEST ALTHOUGH BACK
TO SOUTHERLY LATE NIGHT IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
VERY ROBUST WINDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP A BIT LONGER AND
HAVE PUSHED THE ADVISORY INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  86  78  90 /  80  80  40  50
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  30  50
GIF  74  87  74  92 /  50  70  40  50
SRQ  77  87  77  88 /  50  60  40  30
BKV  75  86  74  90 /  90  90  50  50
SPG  77  86  79  89 /  70  80  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA
DATA SERVICES AND HYDROLOGY...007/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 030135
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL EASE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ONSHORE
NORTHERN FL. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS THAT WILL ROTATE ONSHORE WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FL THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE BEST ODDS AND
MOST COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH...A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. CURRENTLY THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS COVER LEVY COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD WARNING IS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW PRESSURE AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM PASCO TO
LEVY WILL SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE. FROM PINELLAS TO LEE THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK VERY GOOD BUT HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TEXT
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z-03/00Z. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS VCNTY SHRA ON THE
GULF SCOOT THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MON...ALLOWING ENOUGH HEATING FOR MORNING SHRA TO BECOME
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR BUT TIMING
IS TRICKY AND WILL MAINTAIN VFR. WINDS SW AND WEST ALTHOUGH BACK
TO SOUTHERLY LATE NIGHT IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
VERY ROBUST WINDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP A BIT LONGER AND
HAVE PUSHED THE ADVISORY INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  86  78  90 /  80  80  40  50
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  30  50
GIF  74  87  74  92 /  50  70  40  50
SRQ  77  87  77  88 /  50  60  40  30
BKV  75  86  74  90 /  90  90  50  50
SPG  77  86  79  89 /  70  80  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA
DATA SERVICES AND HYDROLOGY...007/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 030135
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL EASE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ONSHORE
NORTHERN FL. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS THAT WILL ROTATE ONSHORE WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FL THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE BEST ODDS AND
MOST COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH...A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. CURRENTLY THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS COVER LEVY COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD WARNING IS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW PRESSURE AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM PASCO TO
LEVY WILL SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE. FROM PINELLAS TO LEE THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK VERY GOOD BUT HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TEXT
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z-03/00Z. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS VCNTY SHRA ON THE
GULF SCOOT THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MON...ALLOWING ENOUGH HEATING FOR MORNING SHRA TO BECOME
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR BUT TIMING
IS TRICKY AND WILL MAINTAIN VFR. WINDS SW AND WEST ALTHOUGH BACK
TO SOUTHERLY LATE NIGHT IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
VERY ROBUST WINDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP A BIT LONGER AND
HAVE PUSHED THE ADVISORY INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  86  78  90 /  80  80  40  50
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  30  50
GIF  74  87  74  92 /  50  70  40  50
SRQ  77  87  77  88 /  50  60  40  30
BKV  75  86  74  90 /  90  90  50  50
SPG  77  86  79  89 /  70  80  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA
DATA SERVICES AND HYDROLOGY...007/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 030135
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL EASE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ONSHORE
NORTHERN FL. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS THAT WILL ROTATE ONSHORE WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FL THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE BEST ODDS AND
MOST COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH...A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. CURRENTLY THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS COVER LEVY COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD WARNING IS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW PRESSURE AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM PASCO TO
LEVY WILL SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE. FROM PINELLAS TO LEE THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK VERY GOOD BUT HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TEXT
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z-03/00Z. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS VCNTY SHRA ON THE
GULF SCOOT THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MON...ALLOWING ENOUGH HEATING FOR MORNING SHRA TO BECOME
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR BUT TIMING
IS TRICKY AND WILL MAINTAIN VFR. WINDS SW AND WEST ALTHOUGH BACK
TO SOUTHERLY LATE NIGHT IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
VERY ROBUST WINDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP A BIT LONGER AND
HAVE PUSHED THE ADVISORY INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  86  78  90 /  80  80  40  50
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  30  50
GIF  74  87  74  92 /  50  70  40  50
SRQ  77  87  77  88 /  50  60  40  30
BKV  75  86  74  90 /  90  90  50  50
SPG  77  86  79  89 /  70  80  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA
DATA SERVICES AND HYDROLOGY...007/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 030135
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND WILL EASE NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ONSHORE
NORTHERN FL. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS THAT WILL ROTATE ONSHORE WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FL THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT. THE BEST ODDS AND
MOST COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH...A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. CURRENTLY THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS COVER LEVY COUNTY WHERE A FLOOD WARNING IS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...THE LOW PRESSURE AND
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH ROBUST ONSHORE FLOW. COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM PASCO TO
LEVY WILL SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WITH MINOR FLOODING
POSSIBLE. FROM PINELLAS TO LEE THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK VERY GOOD BUT HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TEXT
FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
02/00Z-03/00Z. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WAS VCNTY SHRA ON THE
GULF SCOOT THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH MON...ALLOWING ENOUGH HEATING FOR MORNING SHRA TO BECOME
TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR/IFR BUT TIMING
IS TRICKY AND WILL MAINTAIN VFR. WINDS SW AND WEST ALTHOUGH BACK
TO SOUTHERLY LATE NIGHT IN THE SOUTH.

&&

.MARINE... LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHERN FL WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH
VERY ROBUST WINDS...GENERALLY NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP A BIT LONGER AND
HAVE PUSHED THE ADVISORY INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  86  78  90 /  80  80  40  50
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  20  40  30  50
GIF  74  87  74  92 /  50  70  40  50
SRQ  77  87  77  88 /  50  60  40  30
BKV  75  86  74  90 /  90  90  50  50
SPG  77  86  79  89 /  70  80  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER
     FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA
DATA SERVICES AND HYDROLOGY...007/DOUGHERTY



000
FXUS62 KJAX 030122
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SFC LOW CONTS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 30N84W...DRIFTING ENE PAST 12 HOURS. WEAK TROF
EXTENDS NEWD INTO SE GA WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN
SCT CONVECTION IN THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING. NOW...ONLY ISOLD TO SCT SHALLOW CONVECTION EXISTS WITH
THE MORE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FORCING LOCATED E OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER OVER THE NE GULF AND EXTENDING EWD TO NEAR I-75. MODELS ARE
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE SFC LOW AND PREFERRED A SLOWER
MOTION...SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE...MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
EWD 5-10 KT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION BETWEEN
GAINESVILLE AND TRENTON AND WHILE A NARROW RAIN BAND MAY
SETUP...ANTICIPATE ONLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY OWING TO WEAKER FORCING AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.
USING HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS ALL
AREAS BUT KEEP ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE W OF I-75 SOUTH OF LAKE CITY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN CHANCES ARE
AOB 40 PERCENT WITH TSTMS CHANCES WANING QUICKLY AS WELL.

DUE TO EXPECTED LOW TRACK ENE TO NE ON MONDAY...ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE EXPECTED SE OF A LINE FROM
BRUNSWICK TO LIVE OAK. CHANCES SHOWERS AND STORMS NW OF THAT
LINE. SOMEWHAT LOWER MAX TEMPS IN NE FL DUE TO PRECIP AND CLOUDS
COMPARED TO SE GA WHICH ARE FCST IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT BUT
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES. GNV STANDS THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A MORE PERSISTENT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER
TONIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINATION OF SFC LOW AND HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE ATLC
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUTER WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  75  97 /  40  30  10  20
SSI  77  90  76  89 /  40  60  30  30
JAX  74  91  75  93 /  30  60  30  40
SGJ  75  88  75  89 /  50  70  30  40
GNV  75  88  74  89 /  70  70  30  40
OCF  74  87  74  88 /  80  80  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/SHULER/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KJAX 030122
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SFC LOW CONTS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 30N84W...DRIFTING ENE PAST 12 HOURS. WEAK TROF
EXTENDS NEWD INTO SE GA WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN
SCT CONVECTION IN THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING. NOW...ONLY ISOLD TO SCT SHALLOW CONVECTION EXISTS WITH
THE MORE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FORCING LOCATED E OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER OVER THE NE GULF AND EXTENDING EWD TO NEAR I-75. MODELS ARE
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE SFC LOW AND PREFERRED A SLOWER
MOTION...SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE...MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
EWD 5-10 KT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION BETWEEN
GAINESVILLE AND TRENTON AND WHILE A NARROW RAIN BAND MAY
SETUP...ANTICIPATE ONLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY OWING TO WEAKER FORCING AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.
USING HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS ALL
AREAS BUT KEEP ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE W OF I-75 SOUTH OF LAKE CITY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN CHANCES ARE
AOB 40 PERCENT WITH TSTMS CHANCES WANING QUICKLY AS WELL.

DUE TO EXPECTED LOW TRACK ENE TO NE ON MONDAY...ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE EXPECTED SE OF A LINE FROM
BRUNSWICK TO LIVE OAK. CHANCES SHOWERS AND STORMS NW OF THAT
LINE. SOMEWHAT LOWER MAX TEMPS IN NE FL DUE TO PRECIP AND CLOUDS
COMPARED TO SE GA WHICH ARE FCST IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT BUT
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES. GNV STANDS THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A MORE PERSISTENT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER
TONIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINATION OF SFC LOW AND HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE ATLC
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUTER WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  92  75  97 /  40  30  10  20
SSI  77  90  76  89 /  40  60  30  30
JAX  74  91  75  93 /  30  60  30  40
SGJ  75  88  75  89 /  50  70  30  40
GNV  75  88  74  89 /  70  70  30  40
OCF  74  87  74  88 /  80  80  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/SHULER/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KKEY 030117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY
UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE MONDAY...PWAT
VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. THERE IS ADEQUATE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE
KEPT ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 84 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT BELOW 84 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE THE
DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON AUGUST 2ND. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 84 DEGREES WAS ESTABLISHED
IN 2010. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY
UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE MONDAY...PWAT
VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. THERE IS ADEQUATE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE
KEPT ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 84 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT BELOW 84 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE THE
DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON AUGUST 2ND. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 84 DEGREES WAS ESTABLISHED
IN 2010. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY
UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE MONDAY...PWAT
VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. THERE IS ADEQUATE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE
KEPT ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 84 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT BELOW 84 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE THE
DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON AUGUST 2ND. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 84 DEGREES WAS ESTABLISHED
IN 2010. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY
UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE MONDAY...PWAT
VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. THERE IS ADEQUATE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE
KEPT ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 84 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT BELOW 84 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE THE
DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON AUGUST 2ND. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 84 DEGREES WAS ESTABLISHED
IN 2010. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY
UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE MONDAY...PWAT
VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. THERE IS ADEQUATE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE
KEPT ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 84 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT BELOW 84 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE THE
DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON AUGUST 2ND. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 84 DEGREES WAS ESTABLISHED
IN 2010. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY
UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT)
VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE MONDAY...PWAT
VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF AUGUST. THERE IS ADEQUATE
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE
KEPT ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 84 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT BELOW 84 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE THE
DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY
WEST ON AUGUST 2ND. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 84 DEGREES WAS ESTABLISHED
IN 2010. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................DEVANAS
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 030033
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
833 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 6 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak, broad low
pressure system over Apalachee Bay, with a 1009 mb center near
the coast at the Taylor-Dixie County border. This low had been
drifting southeast very slowly for the past 6 to 12 hours. Vapor
imagery and upper air data showed dry, brisk northwest winds aloft
over this system, which seemed to be inhibiting development into a
tropical system. There was a quasi-stationary front from the LA
coast through southeast AL and across central GA. East of the
front the boundary layer remained quite moist, and there were
still a few north-south oriented convective convergence bands
translating slowly westward across our forecast area. We expect
these to diminish by midnight, but showers and thunderstorms will
continue across Dixie County.

All of the latest NWP guidance takes the surface low inland later
tonight, with a diminishing chance of rain across the water-logged
Taylor and Dixie County coasts. It`s tempting to drop some of the
Flash Flood Watch, but we think it`s wise to make sure this system
moves inland first. Also, deep moist convection with these types
of systems tends to peak overnight, so we`ll delay the watch
cancellation and let the next shift take another look.

There was a narrow, relatively strong pressure gradient south of
the surface low center, generating a decent fetch of rather strong
southwest winds. They were driving seas to well above guidance (up
to 9 ft at buoy 42036) and tides 2 ft above normal. We have not
issued a Coastal Flood Advisory because low tide is approaching
through midnight, but tides will need to be monitored later when
the high tide begins to approach.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Tuesday]...Scattered SHRA/TSRA will diminish by 4Z.
Generally VFR conditions are expected until low cigs develop
around KVLD, then spread into KABY and KTLH by dawn Monday. These
cigs will gradually lift my mid to late morning, followed by VFR
conditions. Isolated TSRA are expected around KTLH and KVLD Monday
afternoon, but PoPs are a little too low to include them in this
forecast package,

&&

.Prev Discussion [416 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The area of low pressure along the stalled frontal boundary will
slowly dissipate and continue to push eastward, with the front
exiting the area through Monday evening. The primary forcing for
convection will be from this system, keeping chances for showers
and thunderstorms highest in the eastern Big Bend and further
south and east of our warning area. With a weak afternoon
seabreeze front, there will also be a 30-40% chance for showers
and thunderstorms across north Florida in the afternoons,
primarily along and south of I-10. The heaviest rain will be over
as we head into the work week, however, even moderate rain on top
of already supersaturated soil may exasperate or cause new
flooding issues in isolated areas.

Highs will stay in the low to mid 90s where rain chances are
highest. Further north and west of the decaying frontal system in
southeast Alabama, drier air will be in place with dewpoints
dropping into the mid-upper 60s, which will keep any convection
isolated, but allow afternoon temperatures to soar into the upper
90s. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

After the decaying front exits our area, we will have a few drier
and slightly cooler days with highs in the low 90s, lows in the low-
mid 70s, and normal summertime chances for scattered storms in the
afternoon. Heading into next weekend however, models are suggesting
another frontal system may push southeastward into the forecast area
and stalling again, similar to what we`ve seen this weekend. For
now, bumped chances to 40-50% along the Florida Big Bend and into
south central Georgia.


.Marine...

As an area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf weakens and
moves east through Monday, the pressure gradient will weaken and
advisory level winds and seas will lower. A brief period of
cautionary winds will be possible Monday, then winds and seas will
remain below headline criteria for the remainder of the period.


.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns through this week.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals since Friday morning across Southeastern Taylor and
Dixie Counties were in the 10 to 15 inch range as estimated by radar
with a couple of higher totals near 18 to 19 inches. A couple of
observations in excess of 12 inches were also reported in Dixie
County in the last 24 hours. Widespread areal flooding is common
across these areas, as natural drainage systems are overcome by
excess runoff. Unfortunately, little if any improvement in the flood
situation is expected tonight. With the weak surface low still west
of the Big Bend, expect rain to continue overnight, though not as
extreme as Saturday. Another 2 to 3 inches with isolated heavier
totals is expected.

The primary focus for river flooding is on the Steinhatchee River
where modest rises continue. With basin areal totals in the 9 to 12
inch range in the last 48 hours, there are some strong similarities
with this event and the 5/17/14 flood event. The river is forecast
to crest at 16.5 feet on Monday, which is moderate flood stage.

Elsewhere, river flooding is not anticipated. The bulk of the heavy
rainfall in the Suwannee Basin fell south of Rock Bluff. Though some
minor rises have occurred at Wilcox and Manatee Springs, this
portion of the river will remain safely below action stage. With the
increased runoff from further upstream and tides running about a
foot above normal at the Suwannee River Entrance, the Fowlers Bluff
point will likely reach action stage at each high tide cycle through
Monday afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  97  74  96  75 /  30  40  30  40  40
Panama City   78  91  78  90  79 /  30  30  20  30  30
Dothan        73  98  73  97  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
Albany        74  97  73  98  75 /  20  10  10  20  10
Valdosta      73  95  74  98  75 /  20  20  20  40  40
Cross City    75  90  75  92  75 /  50  50  30  40  30
Apalachicola  78  92  78  91  78 /  50  30  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 AM EDT Monday FOR Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until 10 PM EDT this evening FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday FOR Coastal waters
     from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 030033
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
833 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 6 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak, broad low
pressure system over Apalachee Bay, with a 1009 mb center near
the coast at the Taylor-Dixie County border. This low had been
drifting southeast very slowly for the past 6 to 12 hours. Vapor
imagery and upper air data showed dry, brisk northwest winds aloft
over this system, which seemed to be inhibiting development into a
tropical system. There was a quasi-stationary front from the LA
coast through southeast AL and across central GA. East of the
front the boundary layer remained quite moist, and there were
still a few north-south oriented convective convergence bands
translating slowly westward across our forecast area. We expect
these to diminish by midnight, but showers and thunderstorms will
continue across Dixie County.

All of the latest NWP guidance takes the surface low inland later
tonight, with a diminishing chance of rain across the water-logged
Taylor and Dixie County coasts. It`s tempting to drop some of the
Flash Flood Watch, but we think it`s wise to make sure this system
moves inland first. Also, deep moist convection with these types
of systems tends to peak overnight, so we`ll delay the watch
cancellation and let the next shift take another look.

There was a narrow, relatively strong pressure gradient south of
the surface low center, generating a decent fetch of rather strong
southwest winds. They were driving seas to well above guidance (up
to 9 ft at buoy 42036) and tides 2 ft above normal. We have not
issued a Coastal Flood Advisory because low tide is approaching
through midnight, but tides will need to be monitored later when
the high tide begins to approach.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Tuesday]...Scattered SHRA/TSRA will diminish by 4Z.
Generally VFR conditions are expected until low cigs develop
around KVLD, then spread into KABY and KTLH by dawn Monday. These
cigs will gradually lift my mid to late morning, followed by VFR
conditions. Isolated TSRA are expected around KTLH and KVLD Monday
afternoon, but PoPs are a little too low to include them in this
forecast package,

&&

.Prev Discussion [416 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The area of low pressure along the stalled frontal boundary will
slowly dissipate and continue to push eastward, with the front
exiting the area through Monday evening. The primary forcing for
convection will be from this system, keeping chances for showers
and thunderstorms highest in the eastern Big Bend and further
south and east of our warning area. With a weak afternoon
seabreeze front, there will also be a 30-40% chance for showers
and thunderstorms across north Florida in the afternoons,
primarily along and south of I-10. The heaviest rain will be over
as we head into the work week, however, even moderate rain on top
of already supersaturated soil may exasperate or cause new
flooding issues in isolated areas.

Highs will stay in the low to mid 90s where rain chances are
highest. Further north and west of the decaying frontal system in
southeast Alabama, drier air will be in place with dewpoints
dropping into the mid-upper 60s, which will keep any convection
isolated, but allow afternoon temperatures to soar into the upper
90s. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

After the decaying front exits our area, we will have a few drier
and slightly cooler days with highs in the low 90s, lows in the low-
mid 70s, and normal summertime chances for scattered storms in the
afternoon. Heading into next weekend however, models are suggesting
another frontal system may push southeastward into the forecast area
and stalling again, similar to what we`ve seen this weekend. For
now, bumped chances to 40-50% along the Florida Big Bend and into
south central Georgia.


.Marine...

As an area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf weakens and
moves east through Monday, the pressure gradient will weaken and
advisory level winds and seas will lower. A brief period of
cautionary winds will be possible Monday, then winds and seas will
remain below headline criteria for the remainder of the period.


.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns through this week.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals since Friday morning across Southeastern Taylor and
Dixie Counties were in the 10 to 15 inch range as estimated by radar
with a couple of higher totals near 18 to 19 inches. A couple of
observations in excess of 12 inches were also reported in Dixie
County in the last 24 hours. Widespread areal flooding is common
across these areas, as natural drainage systems are overcome by
excess runoff. Unfortunately, little if any improvement in the flood
situation is expected tonight. With the weak surface low still west
of the Big Bend, expect rain to continue overnight, though not as
extreme as Saturday. Another 2 to 3 inches with isolated heavier
totals is expected.

The primary focus for river flooding is on the Steinhatchee River
where modest rises continue. With basin areal totals in the 9 to 12
inch range in the last 48 hours, there are some strong similarities
with this event and the 5/17/14 flood event. The river is forecast
to crest at 16.5 feet on Monday, which is moderate flood stage.

Elsewhere, river flooding is not anticipated. The bulk of the heavy
rainfall in the Suwannee Basin fell south of Rock Bluff. Though some
minor rises have occurred at Wilcox and Manatee Springs, this
portion of the river will remain safely below action stage. With the
increased runoff from further upstream and tides running about a
foot above normal at the Suwannee River Entrance, the Fowlers Bluff
point will likely reach action stage at each high tide cycle through
Monday afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  97  74  96  75 /  30  40  30  40  40
Panama City   78  91  78  90  79 /  30  30  20  30  30
Dothan        73  98  73  97  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
Albany        74  97  73  98  75 /  20  10  10  20  10
Valdosta      73  95  74  98  75 /  20  20  20  40  40
Cross City    75  90  75  92  75 /  50  50  30  40  30
Apalachicola  78  92  78  91  78 /  50  30  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 AM EDT Monday FOR Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until 10 PM EDT this evening FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday FOR Coastal waters
     from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 030033
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
833 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 6 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak, broad low
pressure system over Apalachee Bay, with a 1009 mb center near
the coast at the Taylor-Dixie County border. This low had been
drifting southeast very slowly for the past 6 to 12 hours. Vapor
imagery and upper air data showed dry, brisk northwest winds aloft
over this system, which seemed to be inhibiting development into a
tropical system. There was a quasi-stationary front from the LA
coast through southeast AL and across central GA. East of the
front the boundary layer remained quite moist, and there were
still a few north-south oriented convective convergence bands
translating slowly westward across our forecast area. We expect
these to diminish by midnight, but showers and thunderstorms will
continue across Dixie County.

All of the latest NWP guidance takes the surface low inland later
tonight, with a diminishing chance of rain across the water-logged
Taylor and Dixie County coasts. It`s tempting to drop some of the
Flash Flood Watch, but we think it`s wise to make sure this system
moves inland first. Also, deep moist convection with these types
of systems tends to peak overnight, so we`ll delay the watch
cancellation and let the next shift take another look.

There was a narrow, relatively strong pressure gradient south of
the surface low center, generating a decent fetch of rather strong
southwest winds. They were driving seas to well above guidance (up
to 9 ft at buoy 42036) and tides 2 ft above normal. We have not
issued a Coastal Flood Advisory because low tide is approaching
through midnight, but tides will need to be monitored later when
the high tide begins to approach.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Tuesday]...Scattered SHRA/TSRA will diminish by 4Z.
Generally VFR conditions are expected until low cigs develop
around KVLD, then spread into KABY and KTLH by dawn Monday. These
cigs will gradually lift my mid to late morning, followed by VFR
conditions. Isolated TSRA are expected around KTLH and KVLD Monday
afternoon, but PoPs are a little too low to include them in this
forecast package,

&&

.Prev Discussion [416 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The area of low pressure along the stalled frontal boundary will
slowly dissipate and continue to push eastward, with the front
exiting the area through Monday evening. The primary forcing for
convection will be from this system, keeping chances for showers
and thunderstorms highest in the eastern Big Bend and further
south and east of our warning area. With a weak afternoon
seabreeze front, there will also be a 30-40% chance for showers
and thunderstorms across north Florida in the afternoons,
primarily along and south of I-10. The heaviest rain will be over
as we head into the work week, however, even moderate rain on top
of already supersaturated soil may exasperate or cause new
flooding issues in isolated areas.

Highs will stay in the low to mid 90s where rain chances are
highest. Further north and west of the decaying frontal system in
southeast Alabama, drier air will be in place with dewpoints
dropping into the mid-upper 60s, which will keep any convection
isolated, but allow afternoon temperatures to soar into the upper
90s. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

After the decaying front exits our area, we will have a few drier
and slightly cooler days with highs in the low 90s, lows in the low-
mid 70s, and normal summertime chances for scattered storms in the
afternoon. Heading into next weekend however, models are suggesting
another frontal system may push southeastward into the forecast area
and stalling again, similar to what we`ve seen this weekend. For
now, bumped chances to 40-50% along the Florida Big Bend and into
south central Georgia.


.Marine...

As an area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf weakens and
moves east through Monday, the pressure gradient will weaken and
advisory level winds and seas will lower. A brief period of
cautionary winds will be possible Monday, then winds and seas will
remain below headline criteria for the remainder of the period.


.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns through this week.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals since Friday morning across Southeastern Taylor and
Dixie Counties were in the 10 to 15 inch range as estimated by radar
with a couple of higher totals near 18 to 19 inches. A couple of
observations in excess of 12 inches were also reported in Dixie
County in the last 24 hours. Widespread areal flooding is common
across these areas, as natural drainage systems are overcome by
excess runoff. Unfortunately, little if any improvement in the flood
situation is expected tonight. With the weak surface low still west
of the Big Bend, expect rain to continue overnight, though not as
extreme as Saturday. Another 2 to 3 inches with isolated heavier
totals is expected.

The primary focus for river flooding is on the Steinhatchee River
where modest rises continue. With basin areal totals in the 9 to 12
inch range in the last 48 hours, there are some strong similarities
with this event and the 5/17/14 flood event. The river is forecast
to crest at 16.5 feet on Monday, which is moderate flood stage.

Elsewhere, river flooding is not anticipated. The bulk of the heavy
rainfall in the Suwannee Basin fell south of Rock Bluff. Though some
minor rises have occurred at Wilcox and Manatee Springs, this
portion of the river will remain safely below action stage. With the
increased runoff from further upstream and tides running about a
foot above normal at the Suwannee River Entrance, the Fowlers Bluff
point will likely reach action stage at each high tide cycle through
Monday afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  97  74  96  75 /  30  40  30  40  40
Panama City   78  91  78  90  79 /  30  30  20  30  30
Dothan        73  98  73  97  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
Albany        74  97  73  98  75 /  20  10  10  20  10
Valdosta      73  95  74  98  75 /  20  20  20  40  40
Cross City    75  90  75  92  75 /  50  50  30  40  30
Apalachicola  78  92  78  91  78 /  50  30  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 AM EDT Monday FOR Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until 10 PM EDT this evening FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday FOR Coastal waters
     from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 030033
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
833 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 6 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak, broad low
pressure system over Apalachee Bay, with a 1009 mb center near
the coast at the Taylor-Dixie County border. This low had been
drifting southeast very slowly for the past 6 to 12 hours. Vapor
imagery and upper air data showed dry, brisk northwest winds aloft
over this system, which seemed to be inhibiting development into a
tropical system. There was a quasi-stationary front from the LA
coast through southeast AL and across central GA. East of the
front the boundary layer remained quite moist, and there were
still a few north-south oriented convective convergence bands
translating slowly westward across our forecast area. We expect
these to diminish by midnight, but showers and thunderstorms will
continue across Dixie County.

All of the latest NWP guidance takes the surface low inland later
tonight, with a diminishing chance of rain across the water-logged
Taylor and Dixie County coasts. It`s tempting to drop some of the
Flash Flood Watch, but we think it`s wise to make sure this system
moves inland first. Also, deep moist convection with these types
of systems tends to peak overnight, so we`ll delay the watch
cancellation and let the next shift take another look.

There was a narrow, relatively strong pressure gradient south of
the surface low center, generating a decent fetch of rather strong
southwest winds. They were driving seas to well above guidance (up
to 9 ft at buoy 42036) and tides 2 ft above normal. We have not
issued a Coastal Flood Advisory because low tide is approaching
through midnight, but tides will need to be monitored later when
the high tide begins to approach.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Tuesday]...Scattered SHRA/TSRA will diminish by 4Z.
Generally VFR conditions are expected until low cigs develop
around KVLD, then spread into KABY and KTLH by dawn Monday. These
cigs will gradually lift my mid to late morning, followed by VFR
conditions. Isolated TSRA are expected around KTLH and KVLD Monday
afternoon, but PoPs are a little too low to include them in this
forecast package,

&&

.Prev Discussion [416 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The area of low pressure along the stalled frontal boundary will
slowly dissipate and continue to push eastward, with the front
exiting the area through Monday evening. The primary forcing for
convection will be from this system, keeping chances for showers
and thunderstorms highest in the eastern Big Bend and further
south and east of our warning area. With a weak afternoon
seabreeze front, there will also be a 30-40% chance for showers
and thunderstorms across north Florida in the afternoons,
primarily along and south of I-10. The heaviest rain will be over
as we head into the work week, however, even moderate rain on top
of already supersaturated soil may exasperate or cause new
flooding issues in isolated areas.

Highs will stay in the low to mid 90s where rain chances are
highest. Further north and west of the decaying frontal system in
southeast Alabama, drier air will be in place with dewpoints
dropping into the mid-upper 60s, which will keep any convection
isolated, but allow afternoon temperatures to soar into the upper
90s. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

After the decaying front exits our area, we will have a few drier
and slightly cooler days with highs in the low 90s, lows in the low-
mid 70s, and normal summertime chances for scattered storms in the
afternoon. Heading into next weekend however, models are suggesting
another frontal system may push southeastward into the forecast area
and stalling again, similar to what we`ve seen this weekend. For
now, bumped chances to 40-50% along the Florida Big Bend and into
south central Georgia.


.Marine...

As an area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf weakens and
moves east through Monday, the pressure gradient will weaken and
advisory level winds and seas will lower. A brief period of
cautionary winds will be possible Monday, then winds and seas will
remain below headline criteria for the remainder of the period.


.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns through this week.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals since Friday morning across Southeastern Taylor and
Dixie Counties were in the 10 to 15 inch range as estimated by radar
with a couple of higher totals near 18 to 19 inches. A couple of
observations in excess of 12 inches were also reported in Dixie
County in the last 24 hours. Widespread areal flooding is common
across these areas, as natural drainage systems are overcome by
excess runoff. Unfortunately, little if any improvement in the flood
situation is expected tonight. With the weak surface low still west
of the Big Bend, expect rain to continue overnight, though not as
extreme as Saturday. Another 2 to 3 inches with isolated heavier
totals is expected.

The primary focus for river flooding is on the Steinhatchee River
where modest rises continue. With basin areal totals in the 9 to 12
inch range in the last 48 hours, there are some strong similarities
with this event and the 5/17/14 flood event. The river is forecast
to crest at 16.5 feet on Monday, which is moderate flood stage.

Elsewhere, river flooding is not anticipated. The bulk of the heavy
rainfall in the Suwannee Basin fell south of Rock Bluff. Though some
minor rises have occurred at Wilcox and Manatee Springs, this
portion of the river will remain safely below action stage. With the
increased runoff from further upstream and tides running about a
foot above normal at the Suwannee River Entrance, the Fowlers Bluff
point will likely reach action stage at each high tide cycle through
Monday afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  97  74  96  75 /  30  40  30  40  40
Panama City   78  91  78  90  79 /  30  30  20  30  30
Dothan        73  98  73  97  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
Albany        74  97  73  98  75 /  20  10  10  20  10
Valdosta      73  95  74  98  75 /  20  20  20  40  40
Cross City    75  90  75  92  75 /  50  50  30  40  30
Apalachicola  78  92  78  91  78 /  50  30  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 AM EDT Monday FOR Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until 10 PM EDT this evening FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday FOR Coastal waters
     from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KMFL 022348
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A TRENDING DOWNWARD IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN LEFT
OVER. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS HAS LEFT BEHIND W-NW WINDS OVER
ALL SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT S-SE WINDS TO RETURN
BY 03Z WITH VFR AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY,
RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE SE WIND FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS, PREDOMINANT WINDS WILL BE S-SW WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR TO PARTS OF EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE VCTS MENTIONED IN ALL
EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 17Z AND KEEPING KAPF/GULF COAST FREE OF
PRECIP. SEA BREEZES AROUND 10 KT SHOULD KICK IN RATHER EARLY...IN
THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY LIGHTER SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED A MORE ORGANIZED EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG ALL OF THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH INTERACTION FROM THE GULF BREEZE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE CONVERGENCE
IS HEIGHTENED. 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY DRY MID
LEVELS WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL THAT HAS
BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING AFTER SUNDOWN WITH HEATING LOSS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH/DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED WEAK
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. WEAKER FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES AT BOTH
COASTS TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS CUBA ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST
ALLOWING STRONGER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN A CONSIDERABLY DRIER (SAHARAN DUST) AIR MASS BY THURSDAY
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING A
RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME...THIS RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO REDUCE OVERALL AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  40  30  40
MIAMI            78  91  78  90 /  20  50  30  40
NAPLES           77  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...59/RM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 022348
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A TRENDING DOWNWARD IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN LEFT
OVER. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS HAS LEFT BEHIND W-NW WINDS OVER
ALL SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT S-SE WINDS TO RETURN
BY 03Z WITH VFR AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY,
RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE SE WIND FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS, PREDOMINANT WINDS WILL BE S-SW WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR TO PARTS OF EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE VCTS MENTIONED IN ALL
EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 17Z AND KEEPING KAPF/GULF COAST FREE OF
PRECIP. SEA BREEZES AROUND 10 KT SHOULD KICK IN RATHER EARLY...IN
THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY LIGHTER SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED A MORE ORGANIZED EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG ALL OF THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH INTERACTION FROM THE GULF BREEZE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE CONVERGENCE
IS HEIGHTENED. 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY DRY MID
LEVELS WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL THAT HAS
BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING AFTER SUNDOWN WITH HEATING LOSS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH/DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED WEAK
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. WEAKER FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES AT BOTH
COASTS TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS CUBA ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST
ALLOWING STRONGER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN A CONSIDERABLY DRIER (SAHARAN DUST) AIR MASS BY THURSDAY
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING A
RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME...THIS RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO REDUCE OVERALL AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  40  30  40
MIAMI            78  91  78  90 /  20  50  30  40
NAPLES           77  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...59/RM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 022348
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A TRENDING DOWNWARD IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN LEFT
OVER. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS HAS LEFT BEHIND W-NW WINDS OVER
ALL SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT S-SE WINDS TO RETURN
BY 03Z WITH VFR AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY,
RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE SE WIND FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS, PREDOMINANT WINDS WILL BE S-SW WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR TO PARTS OF EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE VCTS MENTIONED IN ALL
EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 17Z AND KEEPING KAPF/GULF COAST FREE OF
PRECIP. SEA BREEZES AROUND 10 KT SHOULD KICK IN RATHER EARLY...IN
THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY LIGHTER SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED A MORE ORGANIZED EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG ALL OF THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH INTERACTION FROM THE GULF BREEZE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE CONVERGENCE
IS HEIGHTENED. 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY DRY MID
LEVELS WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL THAT HAS
BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING AFTER SUNDOWN WITH HEATING LOSS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH/DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED WEAK
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. WEAKER FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES AT BOTH
COASTS TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS CUBA ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST
ALLOWING STRONGER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN A CONSIDERABLY DRIER (SAHARAN DUST) AIR MASS BY THURSDAY
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING A
RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME...THIS RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO REDUCE OVERALL AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  40  30  40
MIAMI            78  91  78  90 /  20  50  30  40
NAPLES           77  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...59/RM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 022348
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
A TRENDING DOWNWARD IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION ACROSS
THE FLORIDA MAINLAND WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH ONLY MID/HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN LEFT
OVER. OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS HAS LEFT BEHIND W-NW WINDS OVER
ALL SITES EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT S-SE WINDS TO RETURN
BY 03Z WITH VFR AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HIGH
PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY,
RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY MORE SE WIND FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID
LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS, PREDOMINANT WINDS WILL BE S-SW WHICH WILL
RESULT IN FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA INTERIOR TO PARTS OF EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE VCTS MENTIONED IN ALL
EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 17Z AND KEEPING KAPF/GULF COAST FREE OF
PRECIP. SEA BREEZES AROUND 10 KT SHOULD KICK IN RATHER EARLY...IN
THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY LIGHTER SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED A MORE ORGANIZED EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG ALL OF THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH INTERACTION FROM THE GULF BREEZE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE CONVERGENCE
IS HEIGHTENED. 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY DRY MID
LEVELS WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL THAT HAS
BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING AFTER SUNDOWN WITH HEATING LOSS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH/DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED WEAK
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. WEAKER FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES AT BOTH
COASTS TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS CUBA ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST
ALLOWING STRONGER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN A CONSIDERABLY DRIER (SAHARAN DUST) AIR MASS BY THURSDAY
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING A
RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME...THIS RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO REDUCE OVERALL AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  40  30  40
MIAMI            78  91  78  90 /  20  50  30  40
NAPLES           77  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...59/RM



000
FXUS62 KTAE 022016
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
416 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A well-defined area of low pressure has been quite evident in radar
and satellite imagery today over the Apalachee Bay just off the
Taylor County coast. Shower activity has increased near the center
of the low, but the proximity to land and unfavorable winds aloft
will almost certainly prevent the system from becoming a tropical
depression, especially after it drifts inland. The National
Hurricane Center gives the system a 10% chance of development over
the next 48 hours. The low is progged to drift inland overnight and
weaken. Until that happens, tropical showers will continue to be
pulled into the flash flood watch area, which will need to be
extended one more time to include the overnight hours. An additional
2-3 inches is forecast in Dixie County with isolated amounts up to 6
inches. Much of the county is already flooded, as is adjacent
southern Taylor County. Nighttime PoPs will range from 60 in Dixie
County to less than 20 across the northwestern half of the forecast
area.


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The area of low pressure along the stalled frontal boundary will
slowly dissipate and continue to push eastward, with the front
exiting the area through Monday evening. The primary forcing for
convection will be from this system, keeping chances for showers
and thunderstorms highest in the eastern Big Bend and further
south and east of our warning area. With a weak afternoon
seabreeze front, there will also be a 30-40% chance for showers
and thunderstorms across north Florida in the afternoons,
primarily along and south of I-10. The heaviest rain will be over
as we head into the work week, however, even moderate rain on top
of already supersaturated soil may exasperate or cause new
flooding issues in isolated areas.

Highs will stay in the low to mid 90s where rain chances are
highest. Further north and west of the decaying frontal system in
southeast Alabama, drier air will be in place with dewpoints
dropping into the mid-upper 60s, which will keep any convection
isolated, but allow afternoon temperatures to soar into the upper
90s. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

After the decaying front exits our area, we will have a few drier
and slightly cooler days with highs in the low 90s, lows in the low-
mid 70s, and normal summertime chances for scattered storms in the
afternoon. Heading into next weekend however, models are suggesting
another frontal system may push southeastward into the forecast area
and stalling again, similar to what we`ve seen this weekend. For
now, bumped chances to 40-50% along the Florida Big Bend and into
south central Georgia.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Monday] Ceilings should primarily be VFR this
afternoon, but any showers or storms could quickly lower them back
to MVFR. Another round of IFR ceilings is forecast late tonight at
VLD, TLH and possibly ABY.

&&

.Marine...

As an area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf weakens and
moves east through Monday, the pressure gradient will weaken and
advisory level winds and seas will lower. A brief period of
cautionary winds will be possible Monday, then winds and seas will
remain below headline criteria for the remainder of the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns through this week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals since Friday morning across Southeastern Taylor and
Dixie Counties were in the 10 to 15 inch range as estimated by radar
with a couple of higher totals near 18 to 19 inches. A couple of
observations in excess of 12 inches were also reported in Dixie
County in the last 24 hours. Widespread areal flooding is common
across these areas, as natural drainage systems are overcome by
excess runoff. Unfortunately, little if any improvement in the flood
situation is expected tonight. With the weak surface low still west
of the Big Bend, expect rain to continue overnight, though not as
extreme as Saturday. Another 2 to 3 inches with isolated heavier
totals is expected.

The primary focus for river flooding is on the Steinhatchee River
where modest rises continue. With basin areal totals in the 9 to 12
inch range in the last 48 hours, there are some strong similarities
with this event and the 5/17/14 flood event. The river is forecast
to crest at 16.5 feet on Monday, which is moderate flood stage.

Elsewhere, river flooding is not anticipated. The bulk of the heavy
rainfall in the Suwannee Basin fell south of Rock Bluff. Though some
minor rises have occurred at Wilcox and Manatee Springs, this
portion of the river will remain safely below action stage. With the
increased runoff from further upstream and tides running about a
foot above normal at the Suwannee River Entrance, the Fowlers Bluff
point will likely reach action stage at each high tide cycle through
Monday afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  97  74  96  75 /  30  40  30  40  40
Panama City   78  91  78  90  79 /  20  30  20  30  30
Dothan        73  98  73  97  75 /  10  10  10  20  20
Albany        74  97  73  98  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
Valdosta      73  95  74  98  75 /  30  20  20  40  40
Cross City    75  90  75  92  75 /  60  50  30  40  30
Apalachicola  78  92  78  91  78 /  30  30  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette. HIGH
     RIP CURRENT RISK until 10 PM EDT this evening FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.

AL...NONE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday FOR Coastal waters
     from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 022016
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
416 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A well-defined area of low pressure has been quite evident in radar
and satellite imagery today over the Apalachee Bay just off the
Taylor County coast. Shower activity has increased near the center
of the low, but the proximity to land and unfavorable winds aloft
will almost certainly prevent the system from becoming a tropical
depression, especially after it drifts inland. The National
Hurricane Center gives the system a 10% chance of development over
the next 48 hours. The low is progged to drift inland overnight and
weaken. Until that happens, tropical showers will continue to be
pulled into the flash flood watch area, which will need to be
extended one more time to include the overnight hours. An additional
2-3 inches is forecast in Dixie County with isolated amounts up to 6
inches. Much of the county is already flooded, as is adjacent
southern Taylor County. Nighttime PoPs will range from 60 in Dixie
County to less than 20 across the northwestern half of the forecast
area.


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The area of low pressure along the stalled frontal boundary will
slowly dissipate and continue to push eastward, with the front
exiting the area through Monday evening. The primary forcing for
convection will be from this system, keeping chances for showers
and thunderstorms highest in the eastern Big Bend and further
south and east of our warning area. With a weak afternoon
seabreeze front, there will also be a 30-40% chance for showers
and thunderstorms across north Florida in the afternoons,
primarily along and south of I-10. The heaviest rain will be over
as we head into the work week, however, even moderate rain on top
of already supersaturated soil may exasperate or cause new
flooding issues in isolated areas.

Highs will stay in the low to mid 90s where rain chances are
highest. Further north and west of the decaying frontal system in
southeast Alabama, drier air will be in place with dewpoints
dropping into the mid-upper 60s, which will keep any convection
isolated, but allow afternoon temperatures to soar into the upper
90s. Overnight lows will dip into the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

After the decaying front exits our area, we will have a few drier
and slightly cooler days with highs in the low 90s, lows in the low-
mid 70s, and normal summertime chances for scattered storms in the
afternoon. Heading into next weekend however, models are suggesting
another frontal system may push southeastward into the forecast area
and stalling again, similar to what we`ve seen this weekend. For
now, bumped chances to 40-50% along the Florida Big Bend and into
south central Georgia.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Monday] Ceilings should primarily be VFR this
afternoon, but any showers or storms could quickly lower them back
to MVFR. Another round of IFR ceilings is forecast late tonight at
VLD, TLH and possibly ABY.

&&

.Marine...

As an area of low pressure in the northeastern Gulf weakens and
moves east through Monday, the pressure gradient will weaken and
advisory level winds and seas will lower. A brief period of
cautionary winds will be possible Monday, then winds and seas will
remain below headline criteria for the remainder of the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns through this week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals since Friday morning across Southeastern Taylor and
Dixie Counties were in the 10 to 15 inch range as estimated by radar
with a couple of higher totals near 18 to 19 inches. A couple of
observations in excess of 12 inches were also reported in Dixie
County in the last 24 hours. Widespread areal flooding is common
across these areas, as natural drainage systems are overcome by
excess runoff. Unfortunately, little if any improvement in the flood
situation is expected tonight. With the weak surface low still west
of the Big Bend, expect rain to continue overnight, though not as
extreme as Saturday. Another 2 to 3 inches with isolated heavier
totals is expected.

The primary focus for river flooding is on the Steinhatchee River
where modest rises continue. With basin areal totals in the 9 to 12
inch range in the last 48 hours, there are some strong similarities
with this event and the 5/17/14 flood event. The river is forecast
to crest at 16.5 feet on Monday, which is moderate flood stage.

Elsewhere, river flooding is not anticipated. The bulk of the heavy
rainfall in the Suwannee Basin fell south of Rock Bluff. Though some
minor rises have occurred at Wilcox and Manatee Springs, this
portion of the river will remain safely below action stage. With the
increased runoff from further upstream and tides running about a
foot above normal at the Suwannee River Entrance, the Fowlers Bluff
point will likely reach action stage at each high tide cycle through
Monday afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   75  97  74  96  75 /  30  40  30  40  40
Panama City   78  91  78  90  79 /  20  30  20  30  30
Dothan        73  98  73  97  75 /  10  10  10  20  20
Albany        74  97  73  98  75 /  10  10  10  20  10
Valdosta      73  95  74  98  75 /  30  20  20  40  40
Cross City    75  90  75  92  75 /  60  50  30  40  30
Apalachicola  78  92  78  91  78 /  30  30  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Monday morning FOR Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Taylor-Inland Dixie-Inland Taylor-Lafayette. HIGH
     RIP CURRENT RISK until 10 PM EDT this evening FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.

AL...NONE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EDT Monday FOR Coastal waters
     from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 022002
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER APALACHEE
BAY THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE GULF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
HAS TIGHTENED SIGNIFICANTLY...RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
REGION. IN FACT...WE HAVE ABOUT A 40 KNOT JET BETWEEN 925 AND 850
MBS THAT SHOWS UP WELL ON OUR RADAR. EVEN VERY SHALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS BRINGING DOWN 40 MPH WINDS. DEEPER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. HI-RES MODEL BLENDS DO SHOW THIS
FEATURE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT A GUARANTEE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WILL ASSUME THIS TO BE THE CASE...HOWEVER.

THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE GULF TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE...BRINGING ADDITION
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA...BUT EVEN THE BAY AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

ANY REMAINING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY AS THE
APALACHEE BAY LOW CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY LONG FETCH
OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL FINALLY BE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THAT COULD ACTUALLY INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIGHTING UP EAST OF I-75. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING OUT TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC MAY ALSO HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
UNUSUALLY WET AND ATYPICAL LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS TO ONE MORE
EXPECTED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE TROUGH/FRONT THAT HAS LINGERED OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF/NORTHERN FLORIDA FOR DAYS WILL HAVE SHIFTED
NORTH INTO AL/GA/CAROLINAS...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL ALIGN ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ALL THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THE TRANSITION BACK TO A PATTERN DOMINATED BY DIURNAL
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT MUCH OF OUR
AREA IS EXPERIENCING VERY SATURATED SOILS AT THIS POINT. THE ADDED
EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL COULD VERY WELL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE DAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE TRUE LATE IN THE DAY AND INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR. ITS A
GENERAL RULE...RAIN PROMOTES RAIN...AND DROUGHT PROMOTES DROUGHT.
WE ARE OBVIOUSLY IN THE RAIN PROMOTES RAIN REGIME GOING TO TAKE A
WHILE AND A LOT OF SUN TO START TO RETURN OUR SOIL MOISTURES TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THIS GENERAL MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO HOLD BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS/ECMWF BOTH DO
SHOW A GENERAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN BACK INTO TROUGHING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. DEPENDING ON THE AXIS/AMPLITUDE OF THIS
EVENTUAL TROUGH...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIP TOWARD THE
I-10 CORRIDOR SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF SHOWER
POTENTIAL FOR OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES (LEVY/CITRUS).
HOWEVER...THIS IS A WAYS OUT AND PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
ENSEMBLES EVOLVE. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...NEXT WEEKEND
STILL LOOKS RATHER NORMAL WITH SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AND
DAYTIME TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
GUSTY SIDE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN OVERNIGHT. STILL
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT THEY
WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND FORECASTING THE TIMING OF THESE EVENTS IS
NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BETWEEN ENGLEWOOD AND SUWANNEE
RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE...LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED IN APALACHEE BAY
HAS RESULTED IN SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. ANY SHOWER...EVEN WEAK SHOWERS...WILL EASILY
BRING DOWN 35 KNOTS OF WIND. WE EXPECT THE LOW TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND REACH THE ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS. RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE LEFT THE GROUND
SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  86  78  90 /  70  80  40  50
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  30  40  30  50
GIF  74  87  74  92 /  50  70  40  50
SRQ  77  87  77  88 /  60  60  40  30
BKV  75  86  74  90 /  80  90  50  50
SPG  77  86  79  89 /  70  80  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...NOAH/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 022002
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER APALACHEE
BAY THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE GULF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
HAS TIGHTENED SIGNIFICANTLY...RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
REGION. IN FACT...WE HAVE ABOUT A 40 KNOT JET BETWEEN 925 AND 850
MBS THAT SHOWS UP WELL ON OUR RADAR. EVEN VERY SHALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS BRINGING DOWN 40 MPH WINDS. DEEPER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. HI-RES MODEL BLENDS DO SHOW THIS
FEATURE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT A GUARANTEE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WILL ASSUME THIS TO BE THE CASE...HOWEVER.

THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE GULF TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE...BRINGING ADDITION
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA...BUT EVEN THE BAY AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

ANY REMAINING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY AS THE
APALACHEE BAY LOW CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY LONG FETCH
OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL FINALLY BE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THAT COULD ACTUALLY INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIGHTING UP EAST OF I-75. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING OUT TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC MAY ALSO HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
UNUSUALLY WET AND ATYPICAL LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS TO ONE MORE
EXPECTED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE TROUGH/FRONT THAT HAS LINGERED OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF/NORTHERN FLORIDA FOR DAYS WILL HAVE SHIFTED
NORTH INTO AL/GA/CAROLINAS...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL ALIGN ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ALL THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THE TRANSITION BACK TO A PATTERN DOMINATED BY DIURNAL
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT MUCH OF OUR
AREA IS EXPERIENCING VERY SATURATED SOILS AT THIS POINT. THE ADDED
EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL COULD VERY WELL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE DAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE TRUE LATE IN THE DAY AND INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR. ITS A
GENERAL RULE...RAIN PROMOTES RAIN...AND DROUGHT PROMOTES DROUGHT.
WE ARE OBVIOUSLY IN THE RAIN PROMOTES RAIN REGIME GOING TO TAKE A
WHILE AND A LOT OF SUN TO START TO RETURN OUR SOIL MOISTURES TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THIS GENERAL MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO HOLD BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS/ECMWF BOTH DO
SHOW A GENERAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN BACK INTO TROUGHING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. DEPENDING ON THE AXIS/AMPLITUDE OF THIS
EVENTUAL TROUGH...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIP TOWARD THE
I-10 CORRIDOR SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF SHOWER
POTENTIAL FOR OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES (LEVY/CITRUS).
HOWEVER...THIS IS A WAYS OUT AND PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
ENSEMBLES EVOLVE. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...NEXT WEEKEND
STILL LOOKS RATHER NORMAL WITH SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AND
DAYTIME TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
GUSTY SIDE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN OVERNIGHT. STILL
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT THEY
WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND FORECASTING THE TIMING OF THESE EVENTS IS
NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BETWEEN ENGLEWOOD AND SUWANNEE
RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE...LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED IN APALACHEE BAY
HAS RESULTED IN SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. ANY SHOWER...EVEN WEAK SHOWERS...WILL EASILY
BRING DOWN 35 KNOTS OF WIND. WE EXPECT THE LOW TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND REACH THE ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS. RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE LEFT THE GROUND
SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  86  78  90 /  70  80  40  50
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  30  40  30  50
GIF  74  87  74  92 /  50  70  40  50
SRQ  77  87  77  88 /  60  60  40  30
BKV  75  86  74  90 /  80  90  50  50
SPG  77  86  79  89 /  70  80  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...NOAH/MROCZKA



000
FXUS62 KTBW 022002
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER APALACHEE
BAY THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE GULF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
HAS TIGHTENED SIGNIFICANTLY...RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
REGION. IN FACT...WE HAVE ABOUT A 40 KNOT JET BETWEEN 925 AND 850
MBS THAT SHOWS UP WELL ON OUR RADAR. EVEN VERY SHALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS BRINGING DOWN 40 MPH WINDS. DEEPER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. HI-RES MODEL BLENDS DO SHOW THIS
FEATURE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT A GUARANTEE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WILL ASSUME THIS TO BE THE CASE...HOWEVER.

THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE GULF TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE...BRINGING ADDITION
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA...BUT EVEN THE BAY AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

ANY REMAINING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY AS THE
APALACHEE BAY LOW CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY LONG FETCH
OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL FINALLY BE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THAT COULD ACTUALLY INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIGHTING UP EAST OF I-75. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING OUT TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC MAY ALSO HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
UNUSUALLY WET AND ATYPICAL LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS TO ONE MORE
EXPECTED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE TROUGH/FRONT THAT HAS LINGERED OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF/NORTHERN FLORIDA FOR DAYS WILL HAVE SHIFTED
NORTH INTO AL/GA/CAROLINAS...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL ALIGN ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ALL THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THE TRANSITION BACK TO A PATTERN DOMINATED BY DIURNAL
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT MUCH OF OUR
AREA IS EXPERIENCING VERY SATURATED SOILS AT THIS POINT. THE ADDED
EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL COULD VERY WELL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE DAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE TRUE LATE IN THE DAY AND INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR. ITS A
GENERAL RULE...RAIN PROMOTES RAIN...AND DROUGHT PROMOTES DROUGHT.
WE ARE OBVIOUSLY IN THE RAIN PROMOTES RAIN REGIME GOING TO TAKE A
WHILE AND A LOT OF SUN TO START TO RETURN OUR SOIL MOISTURES TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THIS GENERAL MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO HOLD BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS/ECMWF BOTH DO
SHOW A GENERAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN BACK INTO TROUGHING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. DEPENDING ON THE AXIS/AMPLITUDE OF THIS
EVENTUAL TROUGH...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIP TOWARD THE
I-10 CORRIDOR SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF SHOWER
POTENTIAL FOR OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES (LEVY/CITRUS).
HOWEVER...THIS IS A WAYS OUT AND PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
ENSEMBLES EVOLVE. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...NEXT WEEKEND
STILL LOOKS RATHER NORMAL WITH SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AND
DAYTIME TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
GUSTY SIDE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN OVERNIGHT. STILL
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT THEY
WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND FORECASTING THE TIMING OF THESE EVENTS IS
NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BETWEEN ENGLEWOOD AND SUWANNEE
RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE...LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED IN APALACHEE BAY
HAS RESULTED IN SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. ANY SHOWER...EVEN WEAK SHOWERS...WILL EASILY
BRING DOWN 35 KNOTS OF WIND. WE EXPECT THE LOW TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND REACH THE ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS. RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE LEFT THE GROUND
SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  86  78  90 /  70  80  40  50
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  30  40  30  50
GIF  74  87  74  92 /  50  70  40  50
SRQ  77  87  77  88 /  60  60  40  30
BKV  75  86  74  90 /  80  90  50  50
SPG  77  86  79  89 /  70  80  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...NOAH/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 022002
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
402 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - MONDAY)...
A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED OVER APALACHEE
BAY THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE GULF. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
HAS TIGHTENED SIGNIFICANTLY...RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
REGION. IN FACT...WE HAVE ABOUT A 40 KNOT JET BETWEEN 925 AND 850
MBS THAT SHOWS UP WELL ON OUR RADAR. EVEN VERY SHALLOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS BRINGING DOWN 40 MPH WINDS. DEEPER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. HI-RES MODEL BLENDS DO SHOW THIS
FEATURE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT A GUARANTEE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WILL ASSUME THIS TO BE THE CASE...HOWEVER.

THERE IS A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WILL GENERATE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE GULF TONIGHT. THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE...BRINGING ADDITION
HEAVY RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE
TAMPA BAY AREA...BUT EVEN THE BAY AREA WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

ANY REMAINING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY AS THE
APALACHEE BAY LOW CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY...BUT WE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY LONG FETCH
OF DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL FINALLY BE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THAT COULD ACTUALLY INCREASE THE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE INTERIOR PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED...IT SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL SEE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIGHTING UP EAST OF I-75. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING OUT TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC MAY ALSO HELP TO FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ON TUESDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
UNUSUALLY WET AND ATYPICAL LATE SUMMER CONDITIONS TO ONE MORE
EXPECTED FOR EARLY AUGUST. THE TROUGH/FRONT THAT HAS LINGERED OVER
THE NORTHEAST GULF/NORTHERN FLORIDA FOR DAYS WILL HAVE SHIFTED
NORTH INTO AL/GA/CAROLINAS...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
TO MIGRATE NORTHWARD. THIS RIDGE AXIS WILL ALIGN ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF ANY LINGERING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. ALL THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THE TRANSITION BACK TO A PATTERN DOMINATED BY DIURNAL
SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT MUCH OF OUR
AREA IS EXPERIENCING VERY SATURATED SOILS AT THIS POINT. THE ADDED
EVAPORATIVE POTENTIAL COULD VERY WELL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE DAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY
BE TRUE LATE IN THE DAY AND INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR. ITS A
GENERAL RULE...RAIN PROMOTES RAIN...AND DROUGHT PROMOTES DROUGHT.
WE ARE OBVIOUSLY IN THE RAIN PROMOTES RAIN REGIME GOING TO TAKE A
WHILE AND A LOT OF SUN TO START TO RETURN OUR SOIL MOISTURES TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS.

THIS GENERAL MORE TYPICAL PATTERN OF SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST TO HOLD BY THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...GFS/ECMWF BOTH DO
SHOW A GENERAL AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN BACK INTO TROUGHING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. DEPENDING ON THE AXIS/AMPLITUDE OF THIS
EVENTUAL TROUGH...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIP TOWARD THE
I-10 CORRIDOR SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH A MORE FOCUSED AREA OF SHOWER
POTENTIAL FOR OUR NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES (LEVY/CITRUS).
HOWEVER...THIS IS A WAYS OUT AND PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
ENSEMBLES EVOLVE. FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES...NEXT WEEKEND
STILL LOOKS RATHER NORMAL WITH SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS AND
DAYTIME TEMPS WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 90.

&&

.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
GUSTY SIDE THIS EVENING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AGAIN OVERNIGHT. STILL
THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT THEY
WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND FORECASTING THE TIMING OF THESE EVENTS IS
NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BETWEEN ENGLEWOOD AND SUWANNEE
RIVER INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT-TERM
DISCUSSION ABOVE...LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPED IN APALACHEE BAY
HAS RESULTED IN SUSTAINED 20 TO 25 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. ANY SHOWER...EVEN WEAK SHOWERS...WILL EASILY
BRING DOWN 35 KNOTS OF WIND. WE EXPECT THE LOW TO GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND REACH THE ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE STATE
MONDAY NIGHT AND FINALLY BRING A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS. RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE LEFT THE GROUND
SATURATED OVER MOST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  86  78  90 /  70  80  40  50
FMY  77  90  76  92 /  30  40  30  50
GIF  74  87  74  92 /  50  70  40  50
SRQ  77  87  77  88 /  60  60  40  30
BKV  75  86  74  90 /  80  90  50  50
SPG  77  86  79  89 /  70  80  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
     COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     MORNING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS
     FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...NOAH/MROCZKA



000
FXUS62 KMLB 021954
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS REMARKABLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
PUSHED ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW RUNNING
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS HAS MEANT WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING EVEN IN WEAKER SHOWERS.

ALONG THE TREASURE COAST HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL BE WATCHING A
COLLISION BETWEEN THE LINE OF STORMS AND THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA THAT COULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS MAIN LINE IS
MINIMAL...BUT A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN ADDITION TO
THE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN GULF. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT
TO MODERATE DEBRIS RAINFALL WILL BE ON TAP BEHIND THE INITIAL STORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE LOW OVER APALACHEE BAY WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON ITS SOUTH SIDE AND WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS. MODELS
HINT AT SOME OF THE CONVERGENT BANDS AFFECTING THE NATURE COAST
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO LAKE/VOLUSIA OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARDS...SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER HERE.

MONDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A TRAILING AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DROPPING INTO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERALL SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 15-20KTS IN THE STEERING LEVEL. ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN BREVARD COAST.

STORM EVOLUTION LOOKS SIMILAR INTO MONDAY WITH EASTERN GULF
CONVECTION PRODUCING EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUDINESS AND KICKING OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE INITIATOR...OVERCOMING THE LACK OF STRONG HEATING...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH STORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS AS STORMS APPROACH THE EAST COAST MAINLY NORTH OF FT
PIERCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT WHERE
STORMS INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S ACROSS SRN ZONES WHERE MORE MORNING SUN
IS EXPECTED BEFORE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...THE SFC AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD TWD
FAR SRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN NORTH OF
THE AREA FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE A
"TYPICAL" SUMMER DAY WITH RAIN AND STORMS BEING DRIVEN BY BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OTHER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
STEERING COMPONENT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...THOUGH SOME DRIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES
NEAR NORMAL WITH 30-40 POPS NEAR THE EAST COAST AND 40-50 PCT OVER
THE INTERIOR. HIGHS FROM 89 TO 92 DEGS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: WED...SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW IS FORECAST
AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WITH INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
MOVING TWD THE NRN INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LOWEST POPS AROUND 30 PCT WILL BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD MOVE INLAND INTO MID AFTERNOON. WILL
FORECAST 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SCATTERED STORMS. HIGHS NEAR 90 COASTAL TO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR.

THU...THE LOW LVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY THU AFTN
AS A 500 MB S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SE STATES. MOISTURE LEVELS
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE TWD THE EAST
COAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES 40 PCT CSTL TO 50 PCT FROM ORLANDO SOUTH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGHS 90-92 DEGS.

FRI-SUN...A DEEPENING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EASTWARD MOVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...LIKELY ALONG A PROGRESSIVE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG AN EAST COAST BREEZE PINNED
NEAR THE EAST COAST IF THE WESTERLY FLOW IS NOT TOO STRONG. WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS/STORMS HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE NORTH
OF KMLB AND IS WORKING TOWARDS THE COAST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
WILL SEE THIS LINE INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PINNED AT THE COAST
FROM KVRB SOUTHWARDS THROUGH 22Z AND COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN
STORM INTENSITY AT COASTAL TAF SITES WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...NMRS-WDSPRD -RA WITH OCCASIONAL TSRA
CONTINUING THROUGH 03/02Z. GRADIENT WINDS WILL SUPPORT S/SW GUSTS TO
20KTS EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. OVERALL COVERAGE DIMINISHES AFTER
03/02Z...THOUGH PATCHY -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND OVER APALACHEE BAY WILL
GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT MAY REACH INTO AREAS NORTH OF KLEE-
KDAB OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS HIGH INTO
MONDAY WITH QUICK MOVING STORMS FROM SW TO NE AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING ONWARDS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-MONDAY...PREVAILING S-SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH RIDGE AXIS
NOSING INTO STATE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITING
SOUTH GEORGIA FROM APALACHEE BAY. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10-
15KTS...THOUGH OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE MAY SEE 15-20KTS AT TIME.
PREVAILING SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS PAST 24 HOURS...SO WILL
DROP CAUTIONARY STATEMENT BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVALUATE FOR
REINCLUSION.

SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT. SOME WIND DRIVEN 4-5 FT MAY REACH THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK LOW
MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC.

HIGH COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS REMAIN A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MARINERS SHOULD REMEMBER
THAT STRONG WINDS MAY ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

TUE-THU...S-SW WINDS TUE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE
BY WED/THU AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO
3 FT OFFSHORE. A LOWER COVERAGE OF ATLC SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  74  90 /  60  60  30  40
MCO  73  86  73  91 /  50  60  30  50
MLB  75  88  75  88 /  30  60  20  30
VRB  73  90  73  89 /  30  50  30  30
LEE  74  85  75  91 /  70  70  30  50
SFB  74  86  74  91 /  50  70  30  50
ORL  74  86  75  91 /  50  70  30  50
FPR  74  90  73  89 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WX/RADAR...PENDERGRAST



000
FXUS62 KMLB 021954
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS REMARKABLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
PUSHED ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW RUNNING
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS HAS MEANT WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING EVEN IN WEAKER SHOWERS.

ALONG THE TREASURE COAST HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL BE WATCHING A
COLLISION BETWEEN THE LINE OF STORMS AND THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA THAT COULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS MAIN LINE IS
MINIMAL...BUT A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN ADDITION TO
THE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN GULF. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT
TO MODERATE DEBRIS RAINFALL WILL BE ON TAP BEHIND THE INITIAL STORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE LOW OVER APALACHEE BAY WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON ITS SOUTH SIDE AND WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS. MODELS
HINT AT SOME OF THE CONVERGENT BANDS AFFECTING THE NATURE COAST
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO LAKE/VOLUSIA OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARDS...SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER HERE.

MONDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A TRAILING AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DROPPING INTO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERALL SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 15-20KTS IN THE STEERING LEVEL. ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN BREVARD COAST.

STORM EVOLUTION LOOKS SIMILAR INTO MONDAY WITH EASTERN GULF
CONVECTION PRODUCING EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUDINESS AND KICKING OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE INITIATOR...OVERCOMING THE LACK OF STRONG HEATING...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH STORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS AS STORMS APPROACH THE EAST COAST MAINLY NORTH OF FT
PIERCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT WHERE
STORMS INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S ACROSS SRN ZONES WHERE MORE MORNING SUN
IS EXPECTED BEFORE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...THE SFC AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD TWD
FAR SRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN NORTH OF
THE AREA FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE A
"TYPICAL" SUMMER DAY WITH RAIN AND STORMS BEING DRIVEN BY BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OTHER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
STEERING COMPONENT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...THOUGH SOME DRIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES
NEAR NORMAL WITH 30-40 POPS NEAR THE EAST COAST AND 40-50 PCT OVER
THE INTERIOR. HIGHS FROM 89 TO 92 DEGS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: WED...SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW IS FORECAST
AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WITH INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
MOVING TWD THE NRN INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LOWEST POPS AROUND 30 PCT WILL BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD MOVE INLAND INTO MID AFTERNOON. WILL
FORECAST 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SCATTERED STORMS. HIGHS NEAR 90 COASTAL TO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR.

THU...THE LOW LVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY THU AFTN
AS A 500 MB S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SE STATES. MOISTURE LEVELS
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE TWD THE EAST
COAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES 40 PCT CSTL TO 50 PCT FROM ORLANDO SOUTH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGHS 90-92 DEGS.

FRI-SUN...A DEEPENING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EASTWARD MOVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...LIKELY ALONG A PROGRESSIVE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG AN EAST COAST BREEZE PINNED
NEAR THE EAST COAST IF THE WESTERLY FLOW IS NOT TOO STRONG. WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS/STORMS HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE NORTH
OF KMLB AND IS WORKING TOWARDS THE COAST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
WILL SEE THIS LINE INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PINNED AT THE COAST
FROM KVRB SOUTHWARDS THROUGH 22Z AND COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN
STORM INTENSITY AT COASTAL TAF SITES WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...NMRS-WDSPRD -RA WITH OCCASIONAL TSRA
CONTINUING THROUGH 03/02Z. GRADIENT WINDS WILL SUPPORT S/SW GUSTS TO
20KTS EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. OVERALL COVERAGE DIMINISHES AFTER
03/02Z...THOUGH PATCHY -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND OVER APALACHEE BAY WILL
GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT MAY REACH INTO AREAS NORTH OF KLEE-
KDAB OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS HIGH INTO
MONDAY WITH QUICK MOVING STORMS FROM SW TO NE AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING ONWARDS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-MONDAY...PREVAILING S-SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH RIDGE AXIS
NOSING INTO STATE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITING
SOUTH GEORGIA FROM APALACHEE BAY. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10-
15KTS...THOUGH OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE MAY SEE 15-20KTS AT TIME.
PREVAILING SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS PAST 24 HOURS...SO WILL
DROP CAUTIONARY STATEMENT BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVALUATE FOR
REINCLUSION.

SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT. SOME WIND DRIVEN 4-5 FT MAY REACH THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK LOW
MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC.

HIGH COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS REMAIN A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MARINERS SHOULD REMEMBER
THAT STRONG WINDS MAY ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

TUE-THU...S-SW WINDS TUE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE
BY WED/THU AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO
3 FT OFFSHORE. A LOWER COVERAGE OF ATLC SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  74  90 /  60  60  30  40
MCO  73  86  73  91 /  50  60  30  50
MLB  75  88  75  88 /  30  60  20  30
VRB  73  90  73  89 /  30  50  30  30
LEE  74  85  75  91 /  70  70  30  50
SFB  74  86  74  91 /  50  70  30  50
ORL  74  86  75  91 /  50  70  30  50
FPR  74  90  73  89 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WX/RADAR...PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 021954
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS REMARKABLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
PUSHED ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW RUNNING
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS HAS MEANT WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING EVEN IN WEAKER SHOWERS.

ALONG THE TREASURE COAST HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL BE WATCHING A
COLLISION BETWEEN THE LINE OF STORMS AND THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA THAT COULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS MAIN LINE IS
MINIMAL...BUT A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN ADDITION TO
THE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN GULF. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT
TO MODERATE DEBRIS RAINFALL WILL BE ON TAP BEHIND THE INITIAL STORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE LOW OVER APALACHEE BAY WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON ITS SOUTH SIDE AND WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS. MODELS
HINT AT SOME OF THE CONVERGENT BANDS AFFECTING THE NATURE COAST
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO LAKE/VOLUSIA OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARDS...SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER HERE.

MONDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A TRAILING AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DROPPING INTO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERALL SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 15-20KTS IN THE STEERING LEVEL. ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN BREVARD COAST.

STORM EVOLUTION LOOKS SIMILAR INTO MONDAY WITH EASTERN GULF
CONVECTION PRODUCING EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUDINESS AND KICKING OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE INITIATOR...OVERCOMING THE LACK OF STRONG HEATING...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH STORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS AS STORMS APPROACH THE EAST COAST MAINLY NORTH OF FT
PIERCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT WHERE
STORMS INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S ACROSS SRN ZONES WHERE MORE MORNING SUN
IS EXPECTED BEFORE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...THE SFC AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD TWD
FAR SRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN NORTH OF
THE AREA FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE A
"TYPICAL" SUMMER DAY WITH RAIN AND STORMS BEING DRIVEN BY BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OTHER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
STEERING COMPONENT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...THOUGH SOME DRIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES
NEAR NORMAL WITH 30-40 POPS NEAR THE EAST COAST AND 40-50 PCT OVER
THE INTERIOR. HIGHS FROM 89 TO 92 DEGS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: WED...SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW IS FORECAST
AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WITH INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
MOVING TWD THE NRN INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LOWEST POPS AROUND 30 PCT WILL BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD MOVE INLAND INTO MID AFTERNOON. WILL
FORECAST 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SCATTERED STORMS. HIGHS NEAR 90 COASTAL TO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR.

THU...THE LOW LVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY THU AFTN
AS A 500 MB S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SE STATES. MOISTURE LEVELS
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE TWD THE EAST
COAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES 40 PCT CSTL TO 50 PCT FROM ORLANDO SOUTH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGHS 90-92 DEGS.

FRI-SUN...A DEEPENING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EASTWARD MOVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...LIKELY ALONG A PROGRESSIVE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG AN EAST COAST BREEZE PINNED
NEAR THE EAST COAST IF THE WESTERLY FLOW IS NOT TOO STRONG. WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS/STORMS HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE NORTH
OF KMLB AND IS WORKING TOWARDS THE COAST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
WILL SEE THIS LINE INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PINNED AT THE COAST
FROM KVRB SOUTHWARDS THROUGH 22Z AND COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN
STORM INTENSITY AT COASTAL TAF SITES WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...NMRS-WDSPRD -RA WITH OCCASIONAL TSRA
CONTINUING THROUGH 03/02Z. GRADIENT WINDS WILL SUPPORT S/SW GUSTS TO
20KTS EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. OVERALL COVERAGE DIMINISHES AFTER
03/02Z...THOUGH PATCHY -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND OVER APALACHEE BAY WILL
GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT MAY REACH INTO AREAS NORTH OF KLEE-
KDAB OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS HIGH INTO
MONDAY WITH QUICK MOVING STORMS FROM SW TO NE AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING ONWARDS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-MONDAY...PREVAILING S-SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH RIDGE AXIS
NOSING INTO STATE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITING
SOUTH GEORGIA FROM APALACHEE BAY. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10-
15KTS...THOUGH OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE MAY SEE 15-20KTS AT TIME.
PREVAILING SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS PAST 24 HOURS...SO WILL
DROP CAUTIONARY STATEMENT BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVALUATE FOR
REINCLUSION.

SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT. SOME WIND DRIVEN 4-5 FT MAY REACH THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK LOW
MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC.

HIGH COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS REMAIN A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MARINERS SHOULD REMEMBER
THAT STRONG WINDS MAY ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

TUE-THU...S-SW WINDS TUE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE
BY WED/THU AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO
3 FT OFFSHORE. A LOWER COVERAGE OF ATLC SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  74  90 /  60  60  30  40
MCO  73  86  73  91 /  50  60  30  50
MLB  75  88  75  88 /  30  60  20  30
VRB  73  90  73  89 /  30  50  30  30
LEE  74  85  75  91 /  70  70  30  50
SFB  74  86  74  91 /  50  70  30  50
ORL  74  86  75  91 /  50  70  30  50
FPR  74  90  73  89 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WX/RADAR...PENDERGRAST



000
FXUS62 KMLB 021954
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...RADAR THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS REMARKABLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
PUSHED ACROSS THE PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW RUNNING
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS HAS MEANT WIND GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING EVEN IN WEAKER SHOWERS.

ALONG THE TREASURE COAST HOWEVER...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND WE WILL BE WATCHING A
COLLISION BETWEEN THE LINE OF STORMS AND THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA THAT COULD ENHANCE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...DEVELOPMENT BEHIND THIS MAIN LINE IS
MINIMAL...BUT A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER MAY ALLOW SOME
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN ADDITION TO
THE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN GULF. REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS LIKE LIGHT
TO MODERATE DEBRIS RAINFALL WILL BE ON TAP BEHIND THE INITIAL STORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

SURFACE LOW OVER APALACHEE BAY WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT INLAND OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON ITS SOUTH SIDE AND WEAK TROUGHING
ALOFT CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH EXTENSIVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS. MODELS
HINT AT SOME OF THE CONVERGENT BANDS AFFECTING THE NATURE COAST
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO LAKE/VOLUSIA OVERNIGHT AS LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARDS...SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE HIGHER HERE.

MONDAY...SURFACE LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARDS ACROSS GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A TRAILING AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DROPPING INTO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERALL SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WIND FIELD DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT STILL
AROUND 15-20KTS IN THE STEERING LEVEL. ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN BREVARD COAST.

STORM EVOLUTION LOOKS SIMILAR INTO MONDAY WITH EASTERN GULF
CONVECTION PRODUCING EXTENSIVE MORNING CLOUDINESS AND KICKING OUT AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL PUSH EASTWARDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE INITIATOR...OVERCOMING THE LACK OF STRONG HEATING...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE AFTERNOON DUE TO LOCAL BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH STORMS AND GUSTY
WINDS AS STORMS APPROACH THE EAST COAST MAINLY NORTH OF FT
PIERCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT WHERE
STORMS INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S ACROSS SRN ZONES WHERE MORE MORNING SUN
IS EXPECTED BEFORE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...THE SFC AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD TWD
FAR SRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN NORTH OF
THE AREA FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO. TUESDAY LOOKS MORE LIKE A
"TYPICAL" SUMMER DAY WITH RAIN AND STORMS BEING DRIVEN BY BOTH THE
EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OTHER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
STEERING COMPONENT WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...THOUGH SOME DRIFT BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES
NEAR NORMAL WITH 30-40 POPS NEAR THE EAST COAST AND 40-50 PCT OVER
THE INTERIOR. HIGHS FROM 89 TO 92 DEGS.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: WED...SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW IS FORECAST
AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WITH INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
MOVING TWD THE NRN INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. LOWEST POPS AROUND 30 PCT WILL BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD MOVE INLAND INTO MID AFTERNOON. WILL
FORECAST 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
SCATTERED STORMS. HIGHS NEAR 90 COASTAL TO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR.

THU...THE LOW LVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY THU AFTN
AS A 500 MB S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SE STATES. MOISTURE LEVELS
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE TWD THE EAST
COAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES 40 PCT CSTL TO 50 PCT FROM ORLANDO SOUTH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGHS 90-92 DEGS.

FRI-SUN...A DEEPENING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EASTWARD MOVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...LIKELY ALONG A PROGRESSIVE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG AN EAST COAST BREEZE PINNED
NEAR THE EAST COAST IF THE WESTERLY FLOW IS NOT TOO STRONG. WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS/STORMS HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE NORTH
OF KMLB AND IS WORKING TOWARDS THE COAST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
WILL SEE THIS LINE INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE PINNED AT THE COAST
FROM KVRB SOUTHWARDS THROUGH 22Z AND COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN
STORM INTENSITY AT COASTAL TAF SITES WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...NMRS-WDSPRD -RA WITH OCCASIONAL TSRA
CONTINUING THROUGH 03/02Z. GRADIENT WINDS WILL SUPPORT S/SW GUSTS TO
20KTS EVEN OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. OVERALL COVERAGE DIMINISHES AFTER
03/02Z...THOUGH PATCHY -RA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING INLAND OVER APALACHEE BAY WILL
GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT MAY REACH INTO AREAS NORTH OF KLEE-
KDAB OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINS HIGH INTO
MONDAY WITH QUICK MOVING STORMS FROM SW TO NE AND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION FROM LATE MORNING ONWARDS.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-MONDAY...PREVAILING S-SW FLOW CONTINUES WITH RIDGE AXIS
NOSING INTO STATE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITING
SOUTH GEORGIA FROM APALACHEE BAY. SPEEDS GENERALLY AROUND 10-
15KTS...THOUGH OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE MAY SEE 15-20KTS AT TIME.
PREVAILING SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK AS HIGH AS PAST 24 HOURS...SO WILL
DROP CAUTIONARY STATEMENT BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EVALUATE FOR
REINCLUSION.

SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT. SOME WIND DRIVEN 4-5 FT MAY REACH THE FAR
OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA COUNTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE WEAK LOW
MOVES TO THE ATLANTIC.

HIGH COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS REMAIN A THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MARINERS SHOULD REMEMBER
THAT STRONG WINDS MAY ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

TUE-THU...S-SW WINDS TUE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE
BY WED/THU AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO
3 FT OFFSHORE. A LOWER COVERAGE OF ATLC SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED
INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  74  90 /  60  60  30  40
MCO  73  86  73  91 /  50  60  30  50
MLB  75  88  75  88 /  30  60  20  30
VRB  73  90  73  89 /  30  50  30  30
LEE  74  85  75  91 /  70  70  30  50
SFB  74  86  74  91 /  50  70  30  50
ORL  74  86  75  91 /  50  70  30  50
FPR  74  90  73  89 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WX/RADAR...PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KMFL 021934
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
334 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY LIGHTER SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED A MORE ORGANIZED EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG ALL OF THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH INTERACTION FROM THE GULF BREEZE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE CONVERGENCE
IS HEIGHTENED. 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY DRY MID
LEVELS WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL THAT HAS
BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING AFTER SUNDOWN WITH HEATING LOSS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH/DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED WEAK
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. WEAKER FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES AT BOTH
COASTS TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS CUBA ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST
ALLOWING STRONGER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN A CONSIDERABLY DRIER (SAHARAN DUST) AIR MASS BY THURSDAY
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING A
RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME...THIS RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO REDUCE OVERALL AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS.
THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR KPBI AND KFXE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER SHOULD BECOME DRY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COULD GET UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES OF FXE AND KPBI ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
CEILING AND VIS.

KAPF TAF SITE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE KAPF TAF SITE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO KAPF WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  40  30  40
MIAMI            78  91  78  90 /  10  50  30  40
NAPLES           77  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 021934
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
334 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GENERALLY LIGHTER SURFACE FLOW HAS ALLOWED A MORE ORGANIZED EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG ALL OF THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH INTERACTION FROM THE GULF BREEZE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE CONVERGENCE
IS HEIGHTENED. 12Z MFL SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY DRY MID
LEVELS WHICH HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL THAT HAS
BEEN PREVALENT OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.
HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY WEAKENING AFTER SUNDOWN WITH HEATING LOSS.

MID LEVEL TROUGH/DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH CONTINUED WEAK
SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. WEAKER FLOW WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES AT BOTH
COASTS TO BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS CUBA ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST
ALLOWING STRONGER RIDGING TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. MODELS ARE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING IN A CONSIDERABLY DRIER (SAHARAN DUST) AIR MASS BY THURSDAY
AND LINGERING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING A
RETURN TO A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME...THIS RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
DRIER AIR WILL HELP TO REDUCE OVERALL AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS.
THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR KPBI AND KFXE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER SHOULD BECOME DRY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COULD GET UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH ANY STORM THAT DOES MOVE THROUGH
THE TAF SITES OF FXE AND KPBI ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
CEILING AND VIS.

KAPF TAF SITE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE KAPF TAF SITE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO KAPF WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  77  91 /  20  50  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  40  30  40
MIAMI            78  91  78  90 /  10  50  30  40
NAPLES           77  91  76  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KJAX 021910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH MONDAY...WAVE OF ENERGY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH
MONDAY.

LACK OF INSTABILITY UNDER SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
PRECIPITATION TO SHOWERS THUS FAR...BUT WITH INCREASING BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING.

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND FAIRLY LIGHT THUS FAR
TODAY...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. SINCE
THE WATCH AREA HAS HAD A CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT...AND UNCERTAIN
ABOUT POTENTIAL TO GET ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THERE THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE CANCELED THE WATCH. COULD NOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EAST OF THE WAVE...
BUT POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED FLOODING HAS DECREASED.

EXPECT MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WAVE
POSITION ON MONDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH...THEREFORE HAVE FOCUSED
HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

DUE TO THE EXPECTED LOW TRACK MONDAY...EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR NORMAL OVER SE GA...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER NE
FL.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...E-W UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE
SEABREEZE MERGERS NEAR THE EAST COAST. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
OVER THE SE ON THURSDAY AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN
U.S.  ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL AMPLIFY THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTH TO NEAR THE GA-FL BORDER.
SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
NUMEROUS NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE SPINS IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ALONG A
STATIONARY TROUGH.

THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE TROUGH THROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS 18Z TAF CYCLE...ESPECIALLY FOR NE FL
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...THE COMBINATION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH...AND A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RESULT IN INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH MONDAY.
THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUTER
WATERS.

THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF AREA WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT. THE REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST... AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  92  75  97 /  20  20  10  20
SSI  76  90  76  89 /  40  50  30  30
JAX  72  91  75  93 /  50  50  30  40
SGJ  75  88  75  89 /  60  60  30  40
GNV  75  88  74  89 /  70  70  30  40
OCF  74  87  74  88 /  80  80  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS
FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/ZIBURA/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KKEY 021856
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
256 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE FLORID PENINSULA HAS A ROBUST AREA OF LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IN APALACHEE BAY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE TUTT CELL
OVER THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH AND TRAPPED
BY AN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM
KEY WEST TO KEY LARGO...VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM
SMITH PULASKI SHOALS...AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY IS NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE
TUTT AND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH CROSSES THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE EAST COAST...THE TUTT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST...WHILE
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TUTT
HAS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE REACH OF THE
KEYS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH THE TUTT MOVING
AWAY THE RIDGE WILL SET UP EASTERLY BREEZES WHICH WILL PEAK AND LULL
DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
OVER THE KEYS ONCE AGAIN WITH GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS. THIS TIME FRAME
FITS IN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SAHARAN DUST EVENT THAT WILL
ALSO BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES DOWN TO THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH WILL
INCREASE BREEZES TO GENTLE TO MODERATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE CURRENT GULF STREAM ANALYSIS PRODUCT IS FIVE DAYS OLD.
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT HAS DELAYED THE PRODUCTION OF A MORE CURRENT ANALYSIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...FLOWING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 200 PM TODAY...THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST WAS 84
DEGREES. IF THE TEMPERATURE DOES NOT GO BELOW THAT BEFORE THE END OF
THE DAY...IT WILL TIED THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW SET BACK IN 2010.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  90  82  91 / 10 20 30 30
MARATHON  83  92  82  93 / 10 20 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....KN
DATA COLLECTION...............CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021856
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
256 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE FLORID PENINSULA HAS A ROBUST AREA OF LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IN APALACHEE BAY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE TUTT CELL
OVER THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH AND TRAPPED
BY AN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM
KEY WEST TO KEY LARGO...VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM
SMITH PULASKI SHOALS...AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY IS NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE
TUTT AND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH CROSSES THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE EAST COAST...THE TUTT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST...WHILE
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TUTT
HAS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE REACH OF THE
KEYS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH THE TUTT MOVING
AWAY THE RIDGE WILL SET UP EASTERLY BREEZES WHICH WILL PEAK AND LULL
DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
OVER THE KEYS ONCE AGAIN WITH GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS. THIS TIME FRAME
FITS IN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SAHARAN DUST EVENT THAT WILL
ALSO BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES DOWN TO THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH WILL
INCREASE BREEZES TO GENTLE TO MODERATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE CURRENT GULF STREAM ANALYSIS PRODUCT IS FIVE DAYS OLD.
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT HAS DELAYED THE PRODUCTION OF A MORE CURRENT ANALYSIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...FLOWING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 200 PM TODAY...THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST WAS 84
DEGREES. IF THE TEMPERATURE DOES NOT GO BELOW THAT BEFORE THE END OF
THE DAY...IT WILL TIED THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW SET BACK IN 2010.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  90  82  91 / 10 20 30 30
MARATHON  83  92  82  93 / 10 20 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....KN
DATA COLLECTION...............CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 021816 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST INTO THE INTERIOR AREAS.
THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES ALONG WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR KPBI AND KFXE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER SHOULD BECOME DRY AFTER 00Z TONIGHT FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
COULD GET UP TO 35 KNOTS WITH ANY STORM THAT DO MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES OF FXE AND KPBI ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE
CEILING AND VIS.

KAPF TAF SITE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WEST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE APF TAF SITE
THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE KAPF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO BUILD BACK NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND ALLOW
FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND. THE BEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSHES
INLAND. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CAT OVER
MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

THE 500 MB TEMP THIS MORNING WAS AROUND -7.7C IN THE 12Z MIA
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...THE SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW THE 500 MB TEMP
WARMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO AROUND -7.3C BY THIS
EVENING WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THERE IS ALSO SOME DRIER AIR BETWEEN 850 AND 600 MBS IN THE
MORNING SOUNDING. THEREFORE...A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD STILL BE
STRONG ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE WITH THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY ALONG
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES THROUGH. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE EAST COAST SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL
REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AS THE TIMING IS NOT KNOWN
AT THIS TIME FOR THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

KAPF TAF SITE WILL SEE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW THIS MORNING BEFORE
SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 5
KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON BUT
NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO PUT IN THE TAF SITE. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AT KAPF TAF SITE.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

SHORT TERM (SUN-TUE)...

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS NORTH, AND WITH THAT H5 TEMPS WILL WARM
AGAIN TODAY WITH MEAGER LAPSE RATES MOSTLY 6C/KM OR LESS. PWATS
ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP. SLIGHTLY LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS
A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY, SO STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS BOTH COAST`S SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
COLLIDE. ALTHOUGH GREATEST POPS WILL BE AWAY FROM THE COAST, CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME STORMS NEAR THE CITIES WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
MEANDERING AND EXPECTED STORM MOTION. STRONGER STORMS BECOMING
LESS AND LESS LIKELY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES LESS UNSTABLE WITH
WARMING MIDLEVELS, HOWEVER STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONGER WIND
GUST TODAY. MORNING CLOUDS MAY ONCE AGAIN DELAY OR HOLD BACK ON
COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANY LOCATIONS THAT SEE
EXTENDED BREAKS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT EARLIER.
WITH MORNING ONSHORE FLOW, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE PATTERN REMAINS
UNCHANGED FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
EVENTUALLY, PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH OVER NORTHERN FL WILL
BE SHOVED NORTH BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE, AS THE H5
RIDGE CONSOLIDATES.

LONG TERM (WED-SUN)...

WEAK H5/H3 LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS CUBA EARLY THIS WEEK.
AS IT SETTLES AND OPENS A BIT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
INTO WEDNESDAY, COOLER H5 TEMPS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA, INCREASING INSTABILITY. THUS STORMS MAY BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD AND A LITTLE STRONGER STARTING WEDNESDAY.
IN ADDITION, A MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DOWN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS COAST NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE H5 RIDGE
IS SPLIT PERHAPS SHIFTING ACTIVITY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST.
HOWEVER, NAVY MODEL AND RH FIELDS FROM THE GFS SEEM TO BE PICKING
UP ON A SAHARAN AIR LAYER ARRIVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND
POSSIBLY ENTERING THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY/FRIDAY TOO, WHICH
COULD DRASTICALLY REDUCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  76  91 /  20  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  79  90 /  20  40  30  40
MIAMI            79  91  78  91 /  20  40  30  40
NAPLES           78  91  76  91 /  20  30  10  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...54/BNB




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