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000
FXUS62 KKEY 190251
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1051 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH AT LEAST A HIGH THIN VEIL OF CIRRUS
COVERING ALL PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE TEMPORARILY WANED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SURROUNDING COASTAL
WATERS INCLUDING THE KEYS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 STILL AT THIS HOUR...AND WINDS ARE MOSTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A FEW RANDOM HIGHER GUSTS
HAVE BEEN SEEN NAMELY AT SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT...BUT ARE OF A CURIOUS
NATURE AS PROXIMAL WINDS MEASUREMENT DO NOT REFLECT THE SAME
CONDITIONS. EVENING KEY SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A A VARIABLE MOISTURE
PROFILE...WITH DRY LAYERS AROUND 925 MB AND ABOVE 700 MB. SOME
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WAS SEEN BETWEEN 900MB AND 700 MB...BUT
PROHIBITIVE DRY NEAR THE BASE OF THAT LEVEL IS CAPPING OFF ANY
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY.

.SHORT TERM...
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT A MEASURABLE AMOUNT OF MOISTENING...AT LEAST IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE REQUIRED IF WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. MIMIC PWAT VALUES SHOW A STUBBORN
DRY POCKET ENTRENCHED JUST EAST OF THE AREA...WITH STRUGGLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILES LOOK SUBSTANTIALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MAINLAND OF FLORIDA AT THIS TIME...BUT A MODEST JET STREAK
ALOFT AND PROGGED MIDLEVEL COOLING WILL BOTH BE CONDUCIVE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IF SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING CAN OCCUR. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES REQUIRED DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE OF THE PUBLIC GRIDS OR TEXT
PRODUCTS...EXCEPT FOR THE REMOVAL OF TRANSITIONAL WORDING
OVERNIGHT...AND THE ADDITION OF A HEADLINE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE OF THE
MARINE FORECAST. EXPECT THAT A MOMENTARY SURGE IN WINDS AT SOMBRERO
KEY LIGHT WILL PROVE TO BE FLEETING IN NATURE...AND WINDS SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE AGGREGATE AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. IF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DO DEVELOP HOWEVER...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE THAT THEY WILL
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS. AN ABRUPT SHIFT IN WINDS
TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION IS IN STORE FOR THE KEYS BY THE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY...WITH CAUTIONARY WORDING A LIKELIHOOD FOR AT
LEAST A FEW ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH EARLY TONIGHT. MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT EYW AND MTH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL SHIFT TO WEST TO
NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1899...1.37 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 18TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 115
YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








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000
FXUS62 KMLB 190231
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1031 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO KEEP LIKELY RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR AND WRF MODEL RUNS AS WELL AS THE
LATEST NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED
REDEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THIS AREA
INTO LATE TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TONIGHT...TRENDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY HAVE
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST INTO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO COULD STILL REDEVELOP
AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WHILE THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS IS DIMINISHING THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IF TRAINING OF SHOWERS/STORMS DO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT DROPPING A FEW MORE
DEGREES INTO LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THIS WEEKEND...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE
CENTER REACHING THE ATLC OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER
AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST
WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT
LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR
SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE EVENING EXPECTED WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR IN ANY REDEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS MOVING
INTO THE REGION AFTER 08Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS TOMORROW. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE REEXAMINED IN NEXT SET
OF TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 7-8 FEET OFFSHORE. WILL
EXPAND SCA FOR THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXTEND TIME THROUGH
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.
&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER






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000
FXUS62 KTAE 190224
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1024 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
As the upper low approaches the forecast area, the large scale
lift has pushed to the north, taking the heavy rainfall with it.
With the end of the heavy rain, the Flood Watch has been
cancelled. While the widespread rain is ending, the proximity of
the upper low will continue to support scattered showers through
the overnight hours into Saturday morning. Have trimmed back the
PoPs to better reflect the scattered nature of the precip.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday] A low stratus deck will persist overnight at
all terminals, with IFR/LIFR cigs likely until Saturday morning.
Clouds will likely be slow to lift and dissipate in the late
morning and afternoon, with IFR or MVFR cigs likely to persist
through much of the day. Winds will gradually become more
northerly, generally ranging from 10-20 kt through the rest of the
period at all terminals.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas are increasing once again as low pressure deepens
and moves northeast into the Florida Big Bend. Expect Small Craft
Advisory conditions to continue into Saturday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [313 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Mid/upper level shortwave trough remains quite progressive and
will be exiting the area through the day tomorrow. Expect low
clouds and chance of light showers will linger into the morning
with clearing spreading from sw-ne across the region through the
day with ern/central GA counties the last to clear. In the wake of this
system, seasonably cool temperatures and gusty north winds will
invade the region. Tricky max T forecast for Saturday with much
depending on when and how much clearing develops. Have opted for
a blend with highs holding in the lower to mid 60s over central
GA and around 70 into parts of sern AL and the FL panhandle/ern
Big Bend. Otherwise, expect weather to improve significantly
during the holiday weekend with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures topping out in the mid 70s inland and lower 70s along
the beaches Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights
should range in the lower 50s.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through
Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds
in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and
lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is
a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went
with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be
seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.


.Fire Weather...
With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues
(i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.


.Hydrology...
Many locations in the region are reporting 2+ inches of rain already
and the rain will last until late evening or even longer for the
northern portion of the region. Many of the area rivers are in minor
flood stage and a few are in moderate flood stage. The
Choctawhatchee River is rising quickly and is expected to reach
major flood stage near Bruce around midnight. The Flint River and
the Ochlockonee River are rising steadily and will begin to fall
early next week. The Suwannee River is rising steadily and will do
so until at least mid next week. Many locations will get another 1-2
inches of rain today.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  66  51  75  53 /  50  20  10   0   0
Panama City   51  70  54  75  59 /  40  10   0   0   0
Dothan        48  68  49  74  53 /  40  30  10   0   0
Albany        50  65  49  74  51 /  70  40  20   0   0
Valdosta      55  65  50  74  52 /  60  40  20   0   0
Cross City    59  70  51  76  53 /  50  20  10   0  10
Apalachicola  56  69  54  72  58 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...EVANS
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT







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000
FXUS62 KTBW 190211
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1011 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART EXITED THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AT
THIS TIME...BUT STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL COLD POOL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. HAVE LEFT 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY
NOT BE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AFTER 2 AM EDT. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. COULD ALSO SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN
SHOWERS...BUT OVERALL THREAT PRETTY LOW AND HAVE LEFT VCSH IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST DURING SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING AND HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. REST OF MARINE FORECAST
LOOKS OK WITH NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  75  60  79 /  40  20  10  10
FMY  70  80  62  82 /  40  20  10  10
GIF  67  76  58  81 /  40  20  10  10
SRQ  69  74  62  79 /  40  20  10  10
BKV  65  72  54  81 /  40  20  10  10
SPG  67  72  63  77 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS
     TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE





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000
FXUS62 KJAX 190128
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
928 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...

.UPDATE...
MAIN ARC OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF THE REGION SO
FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE E/NE AND SHOULD END UP
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL BY MORNING. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLD TSTM BUT
CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE ONGOING FORECAST
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST ON SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW ISOLD STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE AND IF ANY HEATING CAN BE REALIZED A FEW STORMS
MAY CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPS NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN
THE 60S WHILE SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE FL
IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
FLUCTUATIONS IN CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING DUE TO A
LARGE VARIANCE IN CEILINGS...WHICH RANGE FROM IFR TO MVFR TO VFR AT
AREA TAF SITES. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LOW CEILINGS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TONIGHT. WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARDS MVFR CEILINGS FOR NOW BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AROUND SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS BETWEEN 3000 TO 5000 FEET. RAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO THE SE GA COASTAL WATERS WITH A
GENERAL SOUTH FLOW AT 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH 4-6
FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE AND WILL KEEP CURRENT SCEC
HEADLINES NEARSHORE AND SCA OFFSHORE IN PLACE. AS SURFACE LOW
DRIFTS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL WEAKEN
BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO INCREASE.

SURF ZONE/RIP CURRENTS: LARGE EASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS OVERNIGHT. STILL EXPECT MAIN IMPACT TONIGHT
ALONG THE COAST WILL BE DURING THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE WHEN RUN
OFF FROM RAINFALL TODAY WILL COMBINE WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES AROUND
1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING IN THE
URBAN AREAS OF BRUNSWICK WHERE THEY RECEIVED 2-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN JACKSONVILLE (MC COY`S CREEK)
AND ST AUGUSTINE WHERE LESS RAINFALL FELL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE ANY KIND OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
SINCE IT WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ANYWAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ENDED UP GENERALLY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE, BUT
HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AND INLD SE GA WILL
PUSH THE SUWANNEE BASIN TO MODERATE FLOOD AND SANTA FE/ALAPAHA
BASINS TO MODERATE/MAJOR FLOOD STATUS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
DAILY RAINFALL RECORDS SET AT ALMA AND ST SIMONS ISLAND WITH
AMOUNTS STILL INCREASING THIS EVENING. WILL END UP OVER 3 INCHES
AT SSI AND OVER 2 INCHES AT AMG BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  64  53  70 /  80  50  40  20
SSI  61  68  57  68 /  90  60  50  30
JAX  64  71  56  72 /  80  40  40  30
SGJ  66  74  59  71 /  80  40  30  30
GNV  66  73  55  77 /  50  30  20  20
OCF  64  75  55  79 /  50  30  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/MCALLISTER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 190103
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
903 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

REST OF TONIGHT...TRENDS BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY HAVE
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST INTO LATE EVENING. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO COULD STILL REDEVELOP
AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. WHILE THE THREAT FOR STRONGER
STORMS IS DIMINISHING THERE REMAINS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IF TRAINING OF SHOWERS/STORMS DO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. CLOUDY SKIES TO PERSIST WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY IF NOT DROPPING A FEW MORE
DEGREES INTO LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
60S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

THIS WEEKEND...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE
CENTER REACHING THE ATLC OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER
AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER
MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST
WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT
LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR
SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS THROUGH LATE EVENING EXPECTED WITH TEMPO
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR IN ANY REDEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE PREDOMINANT MVFR CIGS MOVING
INTO THE REGION AFTER 08Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS TOMORROW. WILL LEAN TOWARD
THIS SOLUTION FOR NOW BUT WILL NEED TO BE REEXAMINED IN NEXT SET
OF TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED
OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 7-8 FEET OFFSHORE. WILL
EXPAND SCA FOR THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXTEND TIME THROUGH
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY AS THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER






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000
FXUS62 KMFL 190050
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
850 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED CONVECTION HAS HAPPENED... SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW APPROACHING THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY 06Z AND ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION AS OUR AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IF
THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
MOSTLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY 04Z AND MOVING
EAST REACHING THE EAST COAST BY 08Z.

SO WHATS THE FORECAST? SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS NEEDED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT...THEREFORE
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  84  63  81 /  50  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  67  82 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            74  86  68  83 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           71  84  61  82 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190050
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
850 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED CONVECTION HAS HAPPENED... SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW APPROACHING THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY 06Z AND ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION AS OUR AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IF
THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
MOSTLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY 04Z AND MOVING
EAST REACHING THE EAST COAST BY 08Z.

SO WHATS THE FORECAST? SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS NEEDED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT...THEREFORE
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  84  63  81 /  50  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  67  82 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            74  86  68  83 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           71  84  61  82 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190050
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
850 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED CONVECTION HAS HAPPENED... SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW APPROACHING THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY 06Z AND ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION AS OUR AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IF
THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
MOSTLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY 04Z AND MOVING
EAST REACHING THE EAST COAST BY 08Z.

SO WHATS THE FORECAST? SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS NEEDED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT...THEREFORE
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  84  63  81 /  50  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  67  82 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            74  86  68  83 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           71  84  61  82 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190050
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
850 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED CONVECTION HAS HAPPENED... SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW APPROACHING THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY 06Z AND ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION AS OUR AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IF
THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
MOSTLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY 04Z AND MOVING
EAST REACHING THE EAST COAST BY 08Z.

SO WHATS THE FORECAST? SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS NEEDED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT...THEREFORE
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  84  63  81 /  50  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  67  82 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            74  86  68  83 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           71  84  61  82 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190018
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  74  84  63 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  67 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            83  74  86  68 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           84  71  84  61 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AVIATION...60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190018
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  74  84  63 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  67 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            83  74  86  68 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           84  71  84  61 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AVIATION...60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190018
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  74  84  63 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  67 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            83  74  86  68 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           84  71  84  61 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AVIATION...60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190018
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  74  84  63 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  67 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            83  74  86  68 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           84  71  84  61 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AVIATION...60/BD



000
FXUS62 KTBW 182204
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
604 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
AS THE STRONGEST STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
ALSO TWEAKED FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND GONE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT AND MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH
ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD POOL...500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -14
TO -17 CELSIUS MOVES OVER THE REGION. REMAINDER OF FORECAST
UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES REACHED
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - A LOW IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF HAD A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN
AND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED FAR NORTHERN FL TO THE ATLANTIC.

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL TO
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FL...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SHOWERS...STORMS...
AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN TRENDING DOWN
OVERNIGHT. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL END THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS LEVY. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN THE
HIGH POPS INTO TONIGHT THEN DROP DOWN TO SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
DURING SAT.

MID TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF AND SLIDES EAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AIDED BY A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...LIKELY
WEAK ENOUGH TO LACK MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL...WITH NO MAJOR TASTES
OF CHILLY AIR EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
THROUGH 19/18Z...PERIODS OF MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHRA AND
TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING. CIGS BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE SAT.
SOUTHERLY AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS VEER TO WESTERLY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
ROUGH DAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS .
THERE IS A SLIGHT LULL IN THE WINDS AT MID-AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEN
TO PICK UP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT CAUTION AND ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND WILL EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY INTO SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF
DURING THE WEEKEND AND DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
INTO SAT. THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION HOWEVER RH
VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ROBUST AND AT TIMES GUSTY
WINDS BOTH 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED DISPERSION
INDICES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  75  60  79 /  50  20  10  10
FMY  70  80  62  82 /  50  20  10  10
GIF  67  76  58  81 /  50  20  10  10
SRQ  69  74  62  79 /  50  20  10  10
BKV  65  72  54  81 /  50  20  10  10
SPG  67  72  63  77 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...69/CLOSE
SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/MID TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 182003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
403 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 83 FOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...

.UPDATE...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 HAS BEEN THE DROPPED FOR THE
COUNTIES OF HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...MANATEE...PASCO...
PINELLAS...AND SARASOTA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES REACHED
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - A LOW IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF HAD A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN
AND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED FAR NORTHERN FL TO THE ATLANTIC.

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL TO
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FL...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SHOWERS...STORMS...
AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN TRENDING DOWN
OVERNIGHT. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL END THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS LEVY. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN THE
HIGH POPS INTO TONIGHT THEN DROP DOWN TO SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
DURING SAT.

MID TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF AND SLIDES EAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AIDED BY A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...LIKELY
WEAK ENOUGH TO LACK MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL...WITH NO MAJOR TASTES
OF CHILLY AIR EXPECTED.

AVIATION...
THROUGH 19/18Z...PERIODS OF MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHRA AND
TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING. CIGS BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE SAT.
SOUTHERLY AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS VEER TO WESTERLY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
ROUGH DAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS .
THERE IS A SLIGHT LULL IN THE WINDS AT MID-AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEN
TO PICK UP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT CAUTION AND ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND WILL EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY INTO SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF
DURING THE WEEKEND AND DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
INTO SAT. THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION HOWEVER RH
VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ROBUST AND AT TIMES GUSTY
WINDS BOTH 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED DISPERSION
INDICES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  75  60  79 /  60  20  10  10
FMY  70  80  61  82 /  60  20  10  10
GIF  67  76  58  81 /  60  20  10  10
SRQ  69  74  62  79 /  60  20  10  10
BKV  65  72  54  81 /  60  20  10  10
SPG  68  73  63  78 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/MID TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
UPDATE...09/RUDE









000
FXUS62 KTBW 181937
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
337 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 83 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES REACHED
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE - A LOW IN THE
EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF HAD A TRAILING FRONT SOUTH TO THE YUCATAN
AND A WARM FRONT THAT CROSSED FAR NORTHERN FL TO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF TONIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS NORTH FL TO
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN FL...WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SHOWERS...STORMS...
AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN TRENDING DOWN
OVERNIGHT. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS THAN EXPECTED AND
WILL END THE FLOOD WATCH ACROSS LEVY. OTHERWISE WILL MAINTAIN THE
HIGH POPS INTO TONIGHT THEN DROP DOWN TO SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
DURING SAT.

.MID TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS TRACKS EASTWARD OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC AS
DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF AND SLIDES EAST. THIS
WILL PROVIDE DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AIDED BY A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...LIKELY
WEAK ENOUGH TO LACK MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL...WITH NO MAJOR TASTES
OF CHILLY AIR EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 19/18Z...PERIODS OF MVFR CIG OVERNIGHT WITH SOME SHRA AND
TSRA THROUGH THE EVENING. CIGS BEGINS TO LIFT AFTER SUNRISE SAT.
SOUTHERLY AND AT TIMES GUSTY WINDS VEER TO WESTERLY BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ROUGH DAY ON THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS .
THERE IS A SLIGHT LULL IN THE WINDS AT MID-AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THEN
TO PICK UP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CURRENT CAUTION AND ADVISORY HEADLINES...AND WILL EXTENDED THE
ADVISORY INTO SAT MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF
DURING THE WEEKEND AND DOMINATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP RH VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
INTO SAT. THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION HOWEVER RH
VALUES SHOULD STAY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ROBUST AND AT TIMES GUSTY
WINDS BOTH 20 FOOT AND TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED DISPERSION
INDICES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  75  60  79 /  60  20  10  10
FMY  70  80  61  82 /  60  20  10  10
GIF  67  76  58  81 /  60  20  10  10
SRQ  69  74  62  79 /  60  20  10  10
BKV  65  72  54  81 /  60  20  10  10
SPG  68  73  63  78 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/MID TERM/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KMLB 181923
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
323 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE GEORGIA COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL/HAS COME ASHORE THE WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST ROUGHLY BETWEEN HOMOSASSA SPRINGS AND SARASOTA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH...HEAVY
RAIN AND HAIL WILL ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BRUSH NORTHWEST
LAKE COUNTY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS...RUC AND HRRR 3KM...FORECAST SOUNDING
HODOGRAPHS AND WIND PROFILES FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUGGEST STRONG
GUSTS VS. SIGNIFICANT ROTATION THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LARGER SCALE
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

THIS WEEKEND...CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE ATLC
OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING
SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS
MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL
TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF
AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MON-THU...HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD ACROSS FL FROM THE SOUTHEAST MON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLC LOW. TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FL TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH WEAK AND LIKELY
DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS NEXT TO NIL. CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY
RISING TO ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUE ONWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 19/00Z...PREVAILING VFR CIGS AND VSBY.
18/19Z-19/00Z...TEMPO IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH G40KT MAINLY NORTH OF
KDAB-KISM. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS VC KLEE POSSIBLE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NOAA BUOYS 009/20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
AND 010/120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WERE RECORDING SOUTHEAST
WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 6 TO 8 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4
AND 6 NM OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORDING 4
TO 5 FOOT SEAS.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SATURDAY BECOMING
WEST NORTH TO SOUTH LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF AND FLORIDA. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS TO 6 FEET THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUILDING TO 10 TO 12 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM SUNDAY
NIGHT.
 THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MON-TUE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FL BEHIND THE ATLC LOW.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  71  58  76 /  60  30  20  10
MCO  68  77  57  80 /  60  30  20  10
MLB  70  80  59  79 /  60  30  20  10
VRB  71  81  58  77 /  60  30  10  10
LEE  66  76  56  79 /  60  30  20  10
SFB  68  77  56  78 /  60  30  20  10
ORL  68  76  58  78 /  60  30  20  10
FPR  72  80  59  78 /  60  30  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     NORTHERN LAKE-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60
     NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...BOWEN






000
FXUS62 KTAE 181913
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
313 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The period begins with mid/upper trough over NE Gulf region
providing some lift. At surface...low south of FL panhandle this
afternoon with diffuse warm front ewd across Nrn Gulf of Mex. Satellite
currently shows a mid level dry slot advancing across Panhandle
but ample rain shield elsewhere with several bands of moderate
rain across SE AL and the Ern Big Bend and adjacent GA. As of 2 PM
EDT...24 rainfall totals ranged from 3 to 4 inches over Wrn
portions of SE AL and adjacent Walton County and generally 2 to 2
1/2 inches elsewhere.

Before midnight, surface low will strengthen as it moves ENE along
frontal boundary. During the overnight hours...weakened H5 low moves
to FL Panhandle by 06z while surface low gradually lifts to NE FL by
06z and SE GA by 12Z. This will focus rain thru sunrise across NE
third of CWA along and north of low/front. Most High-Res guidance
continue to show modest wrap around moisture behind low moving
onshore after midnight. So rain will continue, however intensity will
begin to taper off thru sunrise from locally heavy to moderate to
light from SW-NE. This reflected in model soundings which show
that lower level flow has shifted to NW by sunrise but PWATs remain
around 1 inch. Will go with 40-80% SW-NE POP gradient 00z-06z then
20-70% 06z-12z. Grounds will remain saturated across the CWA and
will be monitored for any localized flooding. With nearly stacked
low...cant discount a slight chance of tstms south of there...mainly
SE Big Bend in eve. Expect lows from upper 40s SE AL/Panhandle to
mid-upper 50s SE Big Bend and adjacent GA counties.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Mid/upper level shortwave trough remains quite progressive and
will be exiting the area through the day tomorrow. Expect low
clouds and chance of light showers will linger into the morning
with clearing spreading from sw-ne across the region through the
day with ern/central GA counties the last to clear. In the wake of this
system, seasonably cool temperatures and gusty north winds will
invade the region. Tricky max T forecast for Saturday with much
depending on when and how much clearing develops. Have opted for
a blend with highs holding in the lower to mid 60s over central
GA and around 70 into parts of sern AL and the FL panhandle/ern
Big Bend. Otherwise, expect weather to improve significantly
during the holiday weekend with mostly sunny skies and
temperatures topping out in the mid 70s inland and lower 70s along
the beaches Sunday. Overnight lows Saturday and Sunday nights
should range in the lower 50s.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The next frontal system will be fast moving and shift through
Tuesday bringing a chance of rain and isolated thunderstorms.
Drier air will move in Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds
in over the area. The Euro has moisture returning Friday and
lingering through the end of the extended period, while the GFS is
a bit slower with arrival of the rain. Blended the two and went
with a slight chance of showers for Friday. Temperatures will be
seasonal with highs in the low 80s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]...IFR ceilings will plague the region until
mid-morning tomorrow. The rain will end later tonight as the Gulf
low moves northeast out of the region. Winds will shift to the
northwest late this evening.

&&

.Marine...
Surface low will move across the Apalachee Bay tonight with gusty
north winds overspreading the area in its wake through tomorrow.
Although much of the clouds and rain will be exiting the area from
west to east Saturday, winds and seas will remain up into Sunday.
A small craft advisory will remain in effect from tonight through
the day Saturday. Conditions will improve by Sunday morning into early
next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues
(i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...
Many locations in the region are reporting 2+ inches of rain already
and the rain will last until late evening or even longer for the
northern portion of the region. Many of the area rivers are in minor
flood stage and a few are in moderate flood stage. The
Choctawhatchee River is rising quickly and is expected to reach
major flood stage near Bruce around midnight. The Flint River and
the Ochlockonee River are rising steadily and will begin to fall
early next week. The Suwannee River is rising steadily and will do
so until at least mid next week. Many locations will get another 1-2
inches of rain today.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  66  51  75  53 /  70  20  10   0   0
Panama City   51  70  54  75  59 /  50  10   0   0   0
Dothan        48  68  49  74  53 /  70  30  10   0   0
Albany        50  65  49  74  51 /  80  40  20   0   0
Valdosta      55  65  50  74  52 /  80  40  20   0   0
Cross City    59  70  51  76  53 /  60  20  10   0  10
Apalachicola  56  69  54  72  58 /  50  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-
     Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...EVANS
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...EVANS
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT







000
FXUS62 KJAX 181847
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO TREK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF...AND WILL APPROACH THE BIG BEND BY THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS SPREAD ACROSS ALL INTERIOR SECTIONS...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
ACROSS EXTREME NE FL INTO SE GA...WILL TRIM THE FLOOD WATCH TO
REMOVE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES. AS THE LOW PUSHES EAST
TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL NUDGE NORTH TO AROUND THE I-10 CORRIDOR...PLACING MUCH OF
NE FL IN THE WARM...MORE UNSTABLE SECTOR. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH SOME ROTATIONAL
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WILL USE
SEVERE WORDING FOR THE ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSTMS FOR NE FL...WITH
LITTLE OR NO TSTM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SE GA.
FURTHER NORTH...THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE...WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT OF 2-4 INCHES AND LOCAL AMOUNTS TO
6 INCHES. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF LATE AS THE LOW ENTERS
NE FL/SE GA. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TO THE 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR.

SATURDAY...THE STACKED LOW WILL CROSS EXTREME SE GA EARLY...MOVING
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY LATE AFTN. NAM SHOWS A NEAR DRY
SLOT AS THE LOW PASSES...WITH THE ECMWF/GFS SHOWING MORE PRECIP
FOR MOST OF THE DAY. WILL USE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SE GA TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ACROSS SE GA...TO
AROUND 70 FOR THE I-10 CORRIDOR...AND MID 70S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN...STACKED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE INTO
THE WRN ATLANTIC AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS INTO CENTRAL GA.A DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
FUNNEL SWD INTO OUR AREA. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE BY SUN AFTN. BREEZY NORTH WINDS MAY BE NEAR LAKE WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 20G35MPH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE 50S
MOST AREAS. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S ACRS
ERN HALF OF SE GA AND ALONG THE NE FL COAST. FARTHER INLAND...THE
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND APPROACH 80 AROUND OCALA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SUN NIGHT...WINDS VEER NNE AS THE RIDGE SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH OVER
GA AND WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60 EXTREME SOUTH

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS WITH MINS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FRONT MAY BRING A QUICK
SHOT OF SHOWERS OVER SE GA ON WED...BUT ONLY ADVERTISED 20% CHANCE
OF POPS FOR SE GA GIVEN WEAK FORCING.

.AVIATION...
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TNGT WITH CIGS
500-800 FT. WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LOWER VSBY TO 1-2SM. AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH...GNV HAS IMPROVED TO VFR BUT EXPECTED
TO DETERIORATE AGAIN THIS EVENING TO MVFR. WINDS HAVE VEERED TO SE
AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES...BUT CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-25 KTS NEAR
THE COAST. ISOLATED TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SLIGHTLY NEARSHORE...WILL LOWER THE SCA
AND USE CAUTION TNGT...WITH SCA REDEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS/SURF/COASTAL FLOODING: HIGH RISK THROUGH TONIGHT.
MODERATE RISK SATURDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH TNGT FOR 5-7
FEET BREAKERS. TIDES ARE RUNNING 1-1.25 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...AND
WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE (AROUND MIDNIGHT) AROUND 7 FEET AT
FERNANDINA BEACH...LEVELS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD. WITH THE
SITUATION MARGINAL AND VERY SHORT LIVED...WILL NOT ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  55  64  53  70 / 100  50  40  20
SSI  64  66  57  68 / 100  60  50  30
JAX  64  71  56  72 / 100  40  40  30
SGJ  66  70  59  71 /  90  40  30  30
GNV  64  72  55  77 /  80  40  20  20
OCF  65  76  55  79 /  70  40  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-
     COLUMBIA-DUVAL-HAMILTON-NASSAU-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/TRABERT/WOLF





000
FXUS62 KKEY 181846
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
246 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER SUMMARY -- A WARM AND BREEZY MORNING HAS GIVEN WAY
TO SLIGHTLY INCREASED SKY COVER AND A SLACKENING BREEZE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING COASTAL
WATERS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE
IN THE MID 80S...WHILE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS SHOW ISOLATED MOSTLY LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.
SHOWER COVERAGE TODAY HAS REMAINED ISOLATED...WITH INTENSITY WEAK...
AND DURATIONS SHORT DUE TO ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND A DEEP LAYER
OF DRY AIR ALOFT. A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.
THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF BASIN...EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE ANIMATIONS...SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND
EQUATORWARD EXTENT. ITS ENERGY LIKELY WILL GET ABSORBED BY THE
STRONGER SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH...WRAPPING UP INTO A SLOW-MOVING MID-
LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. REGIONAL
SATELLITE LOOPS HAVE SHOWN NUMEROUS CONVECTION CLUSTERS AND SYSTEMS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF CELLS OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF...UPSTREAM OF THE
KEYS...HAS WANED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...PROBABLY DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS -- OVERNIGHT...CURRENT FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS SOUND. AN EPISODE OF INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IN THE 100-600 AM TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE VIGOR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ESPECIALLY INTENSE
GIVEN BOTH THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC LIMITING FACTORS. THE
TROUGH/SHEAR LINE SHOULD PASS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING SOMETIME WITH
DECREASING SHOWERS THEREAFTER IN INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.

A DRY PERIOD THEN IS EXPECTED WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH GENERALLY FAIR AND FINE WEATHER WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS THEREAFTER.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL TURN SOUTH AND COLLAPSE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOCALLY VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST AFTER THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...NO MARINE ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&

.AVIATION...
18TH/18Z...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 10
KNOTS...VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH PASSAGE. A
LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. EXPECT TEMPORARY IFR VIS AND GUSTY
CONVECTIVE WINDS AS THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY IMPACTS EACH TERMINAL.
BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...PERSISTENT STRATOCU CIGS BASED AS LOW AS
018 WILL PERSIST.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  81  71  80 / 50 30 -  -
MARATHON  74  83  72  81 / 50 30 -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KMFL 181818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB

&&

.AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  84  63  81 /  50  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  67  82 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            74  86  68  83 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           71  84  61  82 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB

&&

.AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  84  63  81 /  50  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  67  82 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            74  86  68  83 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           71  84  61  82 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG



000
FXUS62 KMFL 181451
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1051 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR CHANGES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES TO A HIGH RISK TODAY BASED
ON THE LATEST CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS
FRONT EXTENDING SSW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF MOBILE/FL
PANHANDLE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY...WHICH
COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
REFLECTS THIS AND GENERALLY DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH DEVELOPING
...EVEN ALONG THE MAIN SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FROM MID/LATE THIS
EVENING (NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION) THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MORNING (EAST COAST AREAS 2AM - DAYBREAK). DESPITE THE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE REMAINS A NON-
ZERO THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS EVOLVE TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CIGS FROM
10-25KFT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
14-15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
THIS AFFECTS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BEGIN AFFECTING KAPF WILL BE BETWEEN 02-04Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
.DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.

EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 181451
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1051 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR CHANGES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES TO A HIGH RISK TODAY BASED
ON THE LATEST CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS
FRONT EXTENDING SSW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF MOBILE/FL
PANHANDLE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY...WHICH
COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
REFLECTS THIS AND GENERALLY DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH DEVELOPING
...EVEN ALONG THE MAIN SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FROM MID/LATE THIS
EVENING (NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION) THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MORNING (EAST COAST AREAS 2AM - DAYBREAK). DESPITE THE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE REMAINS A NON-
ZERO THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS EVOLVE TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CIGS FROM
10-25KFT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
14-15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
THIS AFFECTS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BEGIN AFFECTING KAPF WILL BE BETWEEN 02-04Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
.DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.

EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KKEY 181445
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER SUMMARY -- A WARM AND BREEZY MORNING IS UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH GRADUAL
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE BLOWING AT 15-20 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER WATER. A
SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INDUCED BY THE
APPROACHING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS CLEARLY
EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE MOISTURE CHANNEL ANIMATIONS OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED...SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS HAVE
BROKEN OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA...WITH QUICK TRANSLATION
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL FLOW. DRY AIR ALOFT IS RESULTING
IN SHORT CELL LIFE CYCLES WHILE ALSO PROMOTING SOME GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS. A SERIES OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OF VARYING
INTENSITIES AND LIFE CYCLE STAGES IS EVIDENT UPSTREAM VIA BOTH
REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS.

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS -- POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. AT
THIS POINT...IT SEEMS LIKE MOST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN ADDITION...CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR AT LOW
AND MID ALTITUDES INCOMING FROM THE BAHAMAS AND CARIBBEAN WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT ASCENT. HOWEVER...A
ROBUST SURFACE BOUNDARY AND NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS UPSTREAM
OVER THE GULF WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFTING BASED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
FOR NOW...OUR FORECASTS WILL REMAIN AS IS. WE WILL MONITOR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MORNING MACHINE MODEL OUTPUT...AND LIKELY
HAVE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20
KNOTS AND SEAS UP TO SIX FEET IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. WE EXPECT
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...
18TH/12Z...THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...DECREASING BELOW 10 KNOTS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. A LINE OF WEAKENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE INCLUDED A
PROBABILITY OF TSRA AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM 06 TO 12Z...BUT WILL
REFINE THIS WINDOW WITH THE 18Z TAF.
&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 18TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER
HISTORY...IN 1953...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 88F IN KEY
WEST...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE...A RECORD WHICH HAS HELD
FOR 61 YEARS. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 181346
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
946 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS ON GULF WATERS...

.DISCUSSION...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF HAS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH. A
BROAD COMPLEX OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY
THIS SYSTEM...A FEW OF THE SHOWERS ON THE EAST SIDE ARE NOW
STARTING TO BRUSH THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH. OTHER SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE TRACKING NORTH OVER INTERIOR FL FROM POLK NORTHWARD.
WITH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AS IT SLIDES EAST TODAY THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK GOOD. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THE GREATEST THREATS... DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. IN ADDITION RAINFALL WILL
BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR SOME FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH
WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR LEVY. NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 19/12Z...MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO LIFT BUT EXPECT
THESE TO RETURN LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON IN SHRA AND VCNTY
TSRA THAT CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ROBUST AND AT TIMES GUSTY
EAST WINDS VEER TO SOUTHERLY THEN SW LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS CURRENTLY EASTERLY AND GUSTY BUT WILL BE
VEERING AND INCREASING DURING THE REST OF THE DAY. A COMBINATION
OF ADVISORY AND CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE AND LOOK OK BUT
MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED LATER. NEXT ISSUANCE OUT AROUND 10 AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  66  74  60 /  70  60  20  10
FMY  85  70  81  61 /  40  60  20  10
GIF  83  67  79  58 /  60  60  20  10
SRQ  81  69  75  62 /  60  60  20  10
BKV  82  65  76  54 /  70  60  20  10
SPG  82  68  73  63 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND
     LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION...11/MCKAUGHAN









000
FXUS62 KMLB 181345
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...WARM FRONT BEING ANALYZED BETWEEN LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND ORLANDO AND WAS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD UP THE
PENINSULA. RADARS DETECTING SEVERAL AREAS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH OVER AN AREA FROM ORLANDO TO TITUSVILLE
NORTH. A LARGE AND STRONG MESOSCALE COMPLEX SYSTEM (MCS) IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WAS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WITHIN THE COMPLEX WERE
MOVING MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE MEAN 5000 TO 15000 FOOT LAYER WIND
FLOW. SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FLOW SHOULD SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING THE
MCS STORMS INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) ALL OF OUR COUNTIES EXCEPT FOR SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY WITH THE BEST
TIMING BEING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

CURRENT FORECAST ADDRESSES THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBILITY OF HAIL
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY....DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRIVING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MCS IS DEVELOPING
AT THE INFLECTION POINT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT WHERE A
SURFACE LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING. HOW THIS MCS AND THE SURFACE LOW
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST FOR TODAY.

MODELS HAVE A 1011MB-1013MB CLOSED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYBREAK...WHICH IS FORECASTED TO HELP
PIVOT THE CONVECTION NORTHWARDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE MESOSCALE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION...THOUGH IT IS A
LITTLE TOO FAR WEST COMPARED TO THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE FEATURE
AND LIKELY A FEW HOURS SLOW.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH THE SUPPORT
OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL AS IT TRAVERSES THE EASTERN GULF.

INITIAL ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE WITH THE WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH PALM BEACH COUNTY AND WELL MARKED BY A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT.
EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE FRONT THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST AND MELBOURNE
AROUND DAYBREAK...VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE ORLANDO METRO BY MID
MORNING AND NORTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
ACCELERATE FASTER IF THE GULF LOW TAKES SHAPE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY.

SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IF THE WARM FRONT LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH EARLY
ENOUGH BEFORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE GULF SPREADS OVERHEAD.
SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL TRACK INTO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS/PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF IT IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLOWING DOWN AS IT PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVERHEAD THE SURFACE LOW NEARLY STALLS.
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY INHIBIT FORMATION OF CELLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE LARGE COMPLEX...BUT WITH VEERED AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

SPC HAS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MENTIONED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING TO A
MODEST 35-45KTS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO-TITUSVILLE
NORTHWARDS...WITH SURFACE FLOW REMAINING A GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE BACKED AND CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. 500MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TO A
RESPECTABLE -10C TO -12C MAKING HAIL A POSSIBILITY.

TONIGHT...RAIN AND STORMS LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SLOW DOWN. THREAT FOR TORNADIC STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AS FLOW VEERS WEST-SOUTHWEST...THOUGHT 30-40KT FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY STILL BRING A
FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE INTO THE EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE ATLC
OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING
SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS
MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL
TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF
AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MON-THU...HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD ACROSS FL FROM THE SOUTHEAST MON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLC LOW. TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FL TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH WEAK AND LIKELY
DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS NEXT TO NIL. CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY
RISING TO ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUE ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...FROM 17/15Z-17/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CIGS FL035-040 WITH
SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA BEHIND INITIAL WARM FRONT. AFTER 17/18Z...
MCS/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION PUSHING INTO FL PENINSULA FROM WEST TO
EAST. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NOAA BUOYS 009/20NM EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL
AND 010/120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WERE RECORDING EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS 17 TO 21 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4 AND 6
NM OFF PORT CANAVERAL AND FORT PIERCE INLET WERE RECORDING 5 TO 6
FOOT SEAS.

AFTERNOON UPDATE PUSHED OFFSHORE SEAS TO 8 FEET WHICH WOULD BE IN
LINE WITH CURRENT BUOY REPORTS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE WATERS THIS MORNING BRINGING THE CURRENT EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 20KTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20KTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEHIND WARM
FRONT...LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG EAST-NORTHEAST
FETCH...WITH 8-9FT OFFSHORE/ 6-7FT NEARSHORE THIS MORNING BECOMING
5-6FT NEARSHORE/6-7FT OFFSHORE BY THIS EVENING. TIMING ADVISORY
CONDITIONS IS TOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WARM FRONT...BUT
SINCE SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED EVEN IF WINDS DROP A LITTLE BELOW
CRITERIA WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE OFFSHORE LEG THROUGH THIS
EVENING. IF WINDS DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY... THIS MAY BECOME AN
ADVISORY JUST FOR SEAS.

OVERALL HOWEVER POOR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR SMALL CRAFT. IN
ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTING NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT
THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SAT-TUE...SWRLY FLOW ON SAT WILL VEER TO NW BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH
LOW CENTER IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO LOCAL MAOR TO KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS A LITTLE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT STILL SOLID CAUTIONARY CONDS.
HOWEVER...SCA CONDS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS PGRAD TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO NRLY AND INCREASE TO 20-25KT AND GUSTY WITH FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS
OF 10-12FT...PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM IF WINDS ARE
CLOSER TO 25KT OR SO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FL BEHIND THE ATLC LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  72  58  74 /  60  40  30  20
MCO  67  76  58  79 /  60  30  30  10
MLB  70  78  61  77 /  60  40  20  10
VRB  71  80  59  78 /  60  40  20  10
LEE  65  75  56  78 /  60  40  30  10
SFB  68  75  56  78 /  60  40  20  10
ORL  67  76  58  79 /  60  30  30  10
FPR  72  81  60  78 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...BOWEN






000
FXUS62 KJAX 181333
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT...

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...

.UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE MOVING INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS...AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GOMEX. THE RAIN SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH TO THE EAST TODAY AS THE LOW ENTERS THE NE GOMEX. INSTABILITY
INCREASES SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN FL...AND
WILL RETAIN ISOLATED TSTMS WITH THE CATEGORICAL PRECIP. AS DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION...THE PRECIP WILL BECOME MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY...WITH A FLOOD WATCH ON EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH TNGT.
HAVE A GROWING CONCERN ABOUT TNGT...AS THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR MID/UPPER 60S DEWPOINT YIELDS ABOUT 500 J/KG
OF CAPE. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE INSERTED SEVERE WORDING WITH THE
TSTMS FOR NE FL THIS EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS INTERIOR
SECTIONS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MAINLY 60S.
FURTHER EAST WITH A BIT LATER PRECIP ONSET...EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS.
MVFR/AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH
PREVAILING IFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING DUE TO WAVES OF MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. NE WINDS 12-18 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
WILL DEVELOP BY AFTN...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SPEEDS INLAND TOWARD
VQQ/GNV. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL LEGS THROUGH TODAY...WITH
CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY IMPROVING TO CAUTION NEARSHORE TNGT.
OFFSHORE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST SCA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.


RIP CURRENTS/SURF/COASTAL FLOODING: HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
MODERATE RISK SATURDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
SURF HEIGHTS OF 6-8 FEET. WITH CURRENT TIDE LEVELS RUNNING ABOUT A
FOOT ABOVE NORMAL...LEVELS COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE TNGT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  55  65  50 / 100 100  60  40
SSI  66  62  69  56 / 100 100  60  40
JAX  73  61  71  55 / 100 100  50  40
SGJ  73  63  71  58 / 100 100  50  30
GNV  75  60  72  53 / 100 100  40  30
OCF  77  61  74  55 / 100 100  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-
     COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/WOLF/GUILLET







000
FXUS62 KTAE 181321
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Heavy Rain and Flooding Concerns Continue into this Evening...

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible mainly SE Big Bend and adjacent
Waters...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Mid morning analysis shows that the leading edge of mid/upper
trough continues to dig ESE across Cntrl Gulf region. Closed low
over LA. Low Strong jet extends from base of trough Newd to mid-
Atlc states while several shortwaves move across SE region. Lead
shortwave crossed early this morning leading to blowup of local
convection. Another potent shortwave across extreme E TX diving
down base of trough increasing divergence across Nrn Gulf of Mex
setting us up for next round. At surface...latest MSAS confirmed
by marine obs show that upper features have generated MCS low
south of Mobile and latest radar pix show it only meandering N/E
in last hour. Warm front extends Ewd across Cntrl FL. All this
providing excellent isentropic lift...and has strengthened MCS
yielding plume of moderate to heavy deep layer moisture moving
Newd towards CWA which will increase rainfall amount and
intensity.

Later today...TX shortwave will amplify SEWD helping to generate
closed H5 LOW. Guidance tracks MCS slowly Newd across Wrn FL
Panhandle early aftn then just south of Apalachicola during the late
aftn. Assocd warm front will likely reach I-10 by mid to late-aftn.
This would strengthen Sly flow...intensity moisture plume as it
overspreads CWA and further increase amount and intensity of rain as
low approaches. This would also place the axis of heaviest rain from
Wrn Panhandle thru SE AL and SW GA with the strongest forcing along
and just north of the warm front. General 1-2 inches 6 hr rainfall
totals (2 to 4 inch total) are expected but higher amounts are
likely along and just east of track...i.e. coastal counties from Bay
to Wakulla. The only possible curb would be a dry slot currently
seen on radar south of Panama City. But latest pix show little N/E
movement. With precip water values 50 to 100% above climo, rain
rates will occasionally be very high, so we will leave our Flood
Watch up and unchanged for our entire forecast area. The global
model consensus brings H5 low to FL Panhandle while surface low
moves Newd into NE FL by 06z Sat. So wrap around rain will
continue especially across NE third of CWA. Clouds and rain will
keep max temps well below normal for portions of CWA...near 60
north to mid 70s SE Big Bend.

As of 9 AM EDT...rainfall totals were already 2-3 inches across
Panhandle and 1-2 inches across the Big Bend...SE AL and SW/S/Cntrl
GA. This included Chipley 3.03...Mossy Head 2.80 and Alpine Heights
2.65 in Walton County...Parker (Bay) 2.53...Panama City 2.43...
Geneva AL 2.35...DeFuniak Springs 2.29...Tallahassee AP...1.70 and
Apalachicola 1.47 inches.

Although rain and flooding continues to be the main issue...the
threat of strong to isold severe storms is non-zero across mainly
Taylor and Dixie counties and adjacent waters. Although mid/upper
lapse rates are expected to remain weak...limiting destabilization...
Convection Allowing Model (CAM) forecast SBCAPE is in the 500-1000
J/kg range this afternoon in the warm sector with veered low level
winds around Cross City and Perry. Given the expected 0-1 km bulk
shear magnitude will be around 30 KT in that area, it`s reasonable
to be concerned about isolated, low-topped supercells- with
damaging wind gusts or perhaps even a brief tornado especially if
GFS with its more Nrn track (rather then ECMWF) ends up verifying.
Elsewhere we think that thunderstorms will be elevated enough to
limit vertical mixing, though the low level winds are strong
enough that wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible.

Other concerns to be monitored include possible coastal flooding this
afternoon at high tide across coastal Big Bend, high surf advisories
and high rip current risk for Walton thru Franklin coasts and gale
force winds or gusts for the nearshore panhandle waters and all the
offshore waters.

&&

.Hydrology...

We continue to be on track for a moderate to heavy rainfall event
across the forecast area today and tonight. Rainfall totals of 2
to 4 inches are expected to be fairly common, with isolated higher
amounts perhaps up to 6 to 8 inches possible. In general, the
rivers most likely to flood and have higher impacts will be in the
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where flows are already somewhat
elevated. Where the heaviest rain falls, there should also be
other flooding on smaller streams and creeks, as well as areas of
high water in low-lying areas and fields.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Prev Discussion [645 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The surface low pressure system will be departing to our east
tonight but rain chances will continue through Saturday as wrap
around moisture associated with the upper low swings through the
Tri-state region. Most of this rain should be light. Deep layer
ridging will begin to build in on Sunday with warming temperatures
and dry conditions.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

By early next week the next weak trough and shortwave moves into
Gulf region with weak zonal flow across local area. A surface low
well to our NW brings a weak front to the Nrn Gulf before retreating
back Nwd on Wed. This will bring a slight chance of rain and isold
thunderstorms to the NRN counties Tues and Tues night followed by
drying trend.  Throughout the entire period, both high and low temps
will shows a gradual warming trend. Inland highs Monday in the upper
70s to around 80 will rise to the mid 80s Wed and Thurs. Inland Lows
Sun night in the low to mid 50s will rise by Thurs night to the low
60s.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Rain, occasional thunderstorms, and low
cigs (lower MVFR to IFR) are expected at all terminals today. The
heaviest rain will end from south to north this evening, followed
by IFR cigs and occasional DZ.


.Marine...

Winds and seas will continue to increase today with gale
conditions developing over the western and offshore legs. For the
nearshore waters of the Big Bend...advisory conditions will
prevail at least through the passage of the low pressure system
tonight. The gale conditions for the remainder of the coastal
waters will also subside tonight with advisory conditions
diminishing by Saturday evening. The strong onshore flow will
result in heavy surf and high risk of rip currents along area
beaches from Franklin County westward. A coastal flood watch is
also in effect along Wakulla County eastward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River.


.Fire Weather...

With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues
(i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  53  67  51  76 / 100  60  30  10   0
Panama City   66  50  72  54  77 / 100  30  10   0   0
Dothan        63  48  70  51  76 / 100  50  20   0   0
Albany        63  50  65  50  75 / 100  80  40  10   0
Valdosta      69  55  65  51  75 / 100  80  40  10   0
Cross City    77  59  68  51  77 / 100  60  30  10   0
Apalachicola  70  56  71  53  73 / 100  30  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     COASTAL Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-
     Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...CJM







000
FXUS62 KMFL 181156
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CIGS FROM
10-25KFT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
14-15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
THIS AFFECTS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BEGIN AFFECTING KAPF WILL BE BETWEEN 02-04Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

..STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
..DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.

EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 181156
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CIGS FROM
10-25KFT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
14-15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
THIS AFFECTS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BEGIN AFFECTING KAPF WILL BE BETWEEN 02-04Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

..STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
..DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.

EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KKEY 181048
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
645 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ITS BEEN A VERY QUIET NIGHT WITH ONLY
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MIGRATING NORTHWEST IN OUR REGION. DUE TO A
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
STEADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. SURFACE
WISE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS DRAPED FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALONG THE ENTIRE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AVERAGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS
WHILE A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS INDICATE WIND
GUSTS OF NEAR 25 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS WILL MOVE
EAST SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF COAST
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
SATURDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS SYSTEM ALOFT...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
OCCUR IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND PULLING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY LIES
WITH THE EXTENT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL ASCENT IMPACTING OUR REGION.
THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET MAX AND MODEST MID AND
UPPER LEVEL DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY NEARBY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
MAJORITY OF THE LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA WRAPPED WITHIN THE SYSTEM.
WITH THAT SAID...HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT HIGH CHANCE POPS LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE MAV AND
ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
CARRIED FOR TODAY BUT WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS SPEWING
EASTWARD FROM A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
PRECLUDE SHOWER ACTIVITY SO ONLY NICKLE POPS WILL BE KEPT IN THE
GRIDS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR
NORMAL WITH AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ALTHOUGH ECMWF REVEALS A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
FLOW THAN GFS...BOTH MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY BENIGN AND DRY PATTERN
WILL GOVERN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE PERIOD. HENCE...WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY DIME POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT WITH AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PROMPT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND AN EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE ELSEWHERE THIS MORNING...BEFORE WINDS ABATE DURING
THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST LATE. AFTER MIDNIGHT...MARINERS SHOULD
BE ALERT FOR INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A
FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. FOR THIS WEEKEND...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT SATURDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY FRESH NORTHWEST WINDS WHEN AN EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS...DECREASING BELOW 10 KNOTS
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  73  82  72 / 10 50 30 -
MARATHON  87  73  83  72 / 10 50 30 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....AD

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST






































000
FXUS62 KTAE 181045
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
645 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a rather wavy, east-west
oriented frontal boundary from central FL through the Gulf of
Mexico. There was no closed surface low yet, but all of the global
models insist that one will form in the northern Gulf by around
dawn. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed an approaching potent
trough over TX, though a preceding short wave trough appeared to be
translating northeastward over the FL Panhandle. It`s this initial
short wave trough that is associated with the massive blowup of deep
moist convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early this morning.
Widespread rain from these MCSs has spread over most of our forecast
area, and we expect this will continue throughout the day. With
precip water values 50 to 100% above climo, rain rates will
occasionally be very high, so we will leave our Flood Watch up and
unchanged for our entire forecast area. The global model consensus
brings the surface low near Apalachicola by late afternoon.

Although there will be a lot of rain and clouds today, the mean of
the Convection Allowing Model (CAM) forecast SBCAPE is in the 500-
1000 J/kg range this afternoon around Cross City and Perry. Given
the expected 0-1 km bulk shear magnitude will be around 30 KT in
that area, it`s reasonable to be concerned about isolated,
low-topped supercells- with damaging wind gusts or perhaps even a
brief tornado. Elsewhere we think that thunderstorms will be
elevated enough to limit vertical mixing, though the low level winds
are strong enough that wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The surface low pressure system will be departing to our east
tonight but rain chances will continue through Saturday as wrap
around moisture associated with the upper low swings through the
Tri-state region. Most of this rain should be light. Deep layer
ridging will begin to build in on Sunday with warming temperatures
and dry conditions.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

By early next week the next weak trough and shortwave moves into
Gulf region with weak zonal flow across local area. A surface low
well to our NW brings a weak front to the Nrn Gulf before retreating
back Nwd on Wed. This will bring a slight chance of rain and isold
thunderstorms to the NRN counties Tues and Tues night followed by
drying trend.  Throughout the entire period, both high and low temps
will shows a gradual warming trend. Inland highs Monday in the upper
70s to around 80 will rise to the mid 80s Wed and Thurs. Inland Lows
Sun night in the low to mid 50s will rise by Thurs night to the low
60s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Rain, occasional thunderstorms, and low
cigs (lower MVFR to IFR) are expected at all terminals today. The
heaviest rain will end from south to north this evening, followed
by IFR cigs and occasional DZ.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas will continue to increase today with gale
conditions developing over the western and offshore legs. For the
nearshore waters of the Big Bend...advisory conditions will
prevail at least through the passage of the low pressure system
tonight. The gale conditions for the remainder of the coastal
waters will also subside tonight with advisory conditions
diminishing by Saturday evening. The strong onshore flow will
result in heavy surf and high risk of rip currents along area
beaches from Franklin County westward. A coastal flood watch is
also in effect along Wakulla County eastward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues
(i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...

We continue to be on track for a moderate to heavy rainfall event
across much of the forecast area Friday and into Friday Night.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected to be fairly common,
with higher amounts perhaps up to 5 to 6 inches will be possible.
In general, the rivers most likely to flood and have higher
impacts will be in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where flows
are already somewhat elevated. Where the heaviest rain falls,
there should also be other flooding on smaller streams and creeks,
as well as areas of high water in low-lying areas and fields.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  53  67  51  76 / 100  60  30  10   0
Panama City   66  50  72  54  77 / 100  30  10   0   0
Dothan        63  48  70  51  76 / 100  50  20   0   0
Albany        63  50  65  50  75 / 100  80  40  10   0
Valdosta      69  55  65  51  75 / 100  80  40  10   0
Cross City    77  59  68  51  77 / 100  60  30  10   0
Apalachicola  70  56  71  53  73 / 100  30  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     COASTAL Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-
     Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KJAX 180910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
510 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING REGION-WIDE...
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS STRONG RIDGING (1042
MILLIBARS) CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIME REGION...WEDGING
SOUTHWESTWARD DOWN THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD.
MEANWHILE...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRED OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH A 1012 MILLIBAR LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTH OF THE
FL PANHANDLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
IS PUSHING NORTHWARD FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. ALOFT...A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION...CREATING
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT HAS
FOSTERED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
(MCS) OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT WATERS THAT IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THIS CONVECTIVE PLUME
WAS PUSHING A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REGION...WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS
MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST
FL. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS RANGED FROM THE MID 50S IN
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE 60S ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DIG EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF COAST...WHICH WILL PUSH LOW PRESSURE
TOWARDS THE FL BIG BEND COAST THIS EVENING. THE WARM FRONT OVER
SOUTH FL WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARDS INTERSTATE 10 THIS AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE COINCIDENT
WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES)
OVERSPREADING OUR REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY BY LATE MORNING...WITH
ACTIVITY PUSHING EASTWARD TOWARDS COASTAL LOCATIONS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
HAS THUS INDICATED A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
SOUTHEAST GA...WITH A SLIGHT RISK ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN
NORTHEAST FL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL ALONG WITH A
VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AS OUTFLOW FROM THE ONGOING GULF MCS
MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THIS THREAT
MAY EXTEND INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
APPROACHES OUR REGION. HIGHS IN NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FL
WILL SURGE INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO
NEAR I-10...WHILE HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST GA REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
60S.

THE 06Z/00Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF MAINTAIN A SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE
00Z OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS
IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST GA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD 2-4
INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-10...WITH 4-6 INCH TOTALS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST GA. HEAVY
RAINS THIS EVENING MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS IN COASTAL LOCATIONS DURING
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...PARTICULARLY IN FLOOD PRONE
AREAS SUCH AS MCCOYS CREEK IN DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE AND LOW LYING
AREAS OF DOWNTOWN BRUNSWICK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CUTOFF LATER
TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN GA...WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE
ATLANTIC COAST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER OUR FL COUNTIES DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS ON SAT. WILL LEAVE THE EXPIRATION TIME OF THE FLOOD
WATCH AT 5 AM SAT...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF SLOWER
MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S IN
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE 60S
ELSEWHERE.

SAT & SAT NIGHT...DEEPER CONVECTION INCLUDING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL DEPART OFFSHORE OF THE ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WITH THE SFC LOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE GA/FL ATLANTIC
COAST...AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/SW GA
REGION. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WRAP INTO THE STACKED LOW FROM
THE SOUTH SAT WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SHOWER CHANCES FROM S
TO N THROUGH SAT INTO SAT NIGHT AS THE LOW ADVANCES OFFSHORE. HIGH
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER SE GA ON
THE NNW SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW...TO THE LOW/MID 70S OVER NE FL
WITHIN THE `WARM SECTOR` UNDER A WARM AND BREEZY WEST WIND. SAT
NIGHT A COOL AND DRIER NNW WIND WILL PREVAIL AS CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY DECREASES WITH MIN TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S INLAND
TO NEAR 60 COAST.

SUN & SUN NIGHT...DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FUNNEL SOUTHWARD
AS THE LOW DEPARTS FARTHER OFFSHORE OF THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN THE LEE OF APPALACHIANS OVER
CENTRAL GA. LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY SUN
AFTN. BREEZY NORTH WINDS MAY NEAR LAKE WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL NEAR 20G35MPH.
HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 70 OVER SE GA TO NEAR 80 OVER NE
FL. SUN NIGHT WINDS VEER NNE AS THE RIDGE SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH
OVER GA AND WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED. TEMPS WILL FALL
INTO THE LOW/MID 50S INLAND TO NEAR 60 COAST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MOSTLY DRY AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS WITH MINS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. A FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SFC FRONT MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF SHOWERS OVER SE GA ON WED...BUT ONLY ADVERTISED 20% CHANCE OF
POPS FOR SE GA GIVEN WEAK FORCING.

&&

.AVIATION...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HRS AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES AND CROSSES NE FL. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH TEMPO IFR...THEN PREVAILING IFR
THIS AFTN AND EVENING DUE TO WAVES OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE
GNV AND JAX/SSI TERMINALS. STRONG NE FLOW SUSTAINED 15-20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL DEVELOP AFTER SUNRISE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AT CRG/SSI...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SPEEDS INLAND TOWARD
VQQ/GNV. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT AT
ALL TERMINALS...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
APPROACH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST THIS EVENING...AND WILL THEN
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE FL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE FL WATERS...WITH STRONG
WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRIEFLY
DIMINISH TO CAUTION CRITERIA IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES...WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS
PERSISTING OFFSHORE. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
EXITS THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A SURGE OF NORTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATERS...WITH GALE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OFFSHORE BY EARLY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS ON SUNDAY. A LONG FETCH OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 9-12 FEET OFFSHORE AND 5-9 FEET NEAR SHORE ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE
MONDAY.

SURF ZONE/RIP CURRENTS: LOCAL REPORTS INDICATE SURF REACHING 6-8
FEET THIS MORNING...AND THUS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
THROUGH THIS EVENING....WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING. EXPECTING SURF TO REMAIN JUST BELOW MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD CRITERIA DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WITH TIDAL
DEPARTURES APPROACHING 2 FEET. BIGGER CONCERN IS DURING THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...WHEN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BECOME
MORE OF A CONCERN. THIS HIGHER HIGH TIDE COMBINED WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE URBANIZED AREAS OF
JACKSONVILLE...BRUNSWICK AND ST. AUGUSTINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH STORM RAINFALL TOTALS BY SATURDAY WILL PUSH
RIVER FLOODING INTO MODERATE CATEGORY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
THE SUWANNEE AND SANTA FE RIVER BASINS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
OUR RIVER BASINS REACH OR REMAIN IN MINOR FLOOD STATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  55  65  50 / 100 100  60  40
SSI  66  62  69  56 / 100 100  60  40
JAX  73  61  71  55 / 100 100  50  40
SGJ  73  63  71  58 / 100 100  50  30
GNV  75  60  72  53 / 100 100  40  30
OCF  77  61  74  55 / 100 100  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALACHUA-
     BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-
     HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR APPLING-
     ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF
     DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/ENYEDI









000
FXUS62 KTAE 180831
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
431 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 03 UTC regional surface analysis showed a rather wavy, east-west
oriented frontal boundary from central FL through the Gulf of
Mexico. There was no closed surface low yet, but all of the global
models insist that one will form in the northern Gulf by around
dawn. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed an approaching potent
trough over TX, though a preceding short wave trough appeared to be
translating northeastward over the FL Panhandle. It`s this initial
short wave trough that is associated with the massive blowup of deep
moist convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early this morning.
Widespread rain from these MCSs has spread over most of our forecast
area, and we expect this will continue throughout the day. With
precip water values 50 to 100% above climo, rain rates will
occasionally be very high, so we will leave our Flood Watch up and
unchanged for our entire forecast area. The global model consensus
brings the surface low near Apalachicola by late afternoon.

Although there will be a lot of rain and clouds today, the mean of
the Convection Allowing Model (CAM) forecast SBCAPE is in the 500-
1000 J/kg range this afternoon around Cross City and Perry. Given
the expected 0-1 km bulk shear magnitude will be around 30 KT in
that area, it`s reasonable to be concerned about isolated,
low-topped supercells- with damaging wind gusts or perhaps even a
brief tornado. Elsewhere we think that thunderstorms will be
elevated enough to limit vertical mixing, though the low level winds
are strong enough that wind gusts up to 40 MPH are possible.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The surface low pressure system will be departing to our east
tonight but rain chances will continue through Saturday as wrap
around moisture associated with the upper low swings through the
Tri-state region. Most of this rain should be light. Deep layer
ridging will begin to build in on Sunday with warming temperatures
and dry conditions.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

By early next week the next weak trough and shortwave moves into
Gulf region with weak zonal flow across local area. A surface low
well to our NW brings a weak front to the Nrn Gulf before retreating
back Nwd on Wed. This will bring a slight chance of rain and isold
thunderstorms to the NRN counties Tues and Tues night followed by
drying trend.  Throughout the entire period, both high and low temps
will shows a gradual warming trend. Inland highs Monday in the upper
70s to around 80 will rise to the mid 80s Wed and Thurs. Inland Lows
Sun night in the low to mid 50s will rise by Thurs night to the low
60s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06z Saturday] Rain, occasional thunderstorms, and low
cigs (lower MVFR to IFR) are expected at all terminals today. The
heaviest rain will end from south to north this evening, followed
by IFR cigs and occasional DZ.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas will continue to increase today with gale
conditions developing over the western and offshore legs. For the
nearshore waters of the Big Bend...advisory conditions will
prevail at least through the passage of the low pressure system
tonight. The gale conditions for the remainder of the coastal
waters will also subside tonight with advisory conditions
diminishing by Saturday evening. The strong onshore flow will
result in heavy surf and high risk of rip currents along area
beaches from Franklin County westward. A coastal flood watch is
also in effect along Wakulla County eastward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With such wet conditions today, there will be no fire weather issues
(i.e. Red flag conditions) through at least this weekend.

&&

.Hydrology...

We continue to be on track for a moderate to heavy rainfall event
across much of the forecast area Friday and into Friday Night.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected to be fairly common,
with higher amounts perhaps up to 5 to 6 inches will be possible.
In general, the rivers most likely to flood and have higher
impacts will be in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where flows
are already somewhat elevated. Where the heaviest rain falls,
there should also be other flooding on smaller streams and creeks,
as well as areas of high water in low-lying areas and fields.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  53  67  51  76 / 100  60  30  10   0
Panama City   66  50  72  54  77 / 100  30  10   0   0
Dothan        63  48  70  51  76 / 100  50  20   0   0
Albany        63  50  65  50  75 / 100  80  40  10   0
Valdosta      69  55  65  51  75 / 100  80  40  10   0
Cross City    77  59  68  51  77 / 100  60  30  10   0
Apalachicola  70  56  71  53  73 / 100  30  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Calhoun-Central Walton-
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     COASTAL Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch through late tonight for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-
     Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-
     Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-
     Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch through late tonight for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-
     Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for Coastal waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee
     River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS





000
FXUS62 KMLB 180826
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS TODAY...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

TODAY....DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS DRIVING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS MCS IS DEVELOPING
AT THE INFLECTION POINT ALONG THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT WHERE A
SURFACE LOW IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING. HOW THIS MCS AND THE SURFACE LOW
THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP WILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR IN OUR
FORECAST FOR TODAY.

MODELS HAVE A 1011MB-1013MB CLOSED SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYBREAK...WHICH IS FORECASTED TO HELP
PIVOT THE CONVECTION NORTHWARDS LATER THIS MORNING. THE MESOSCALE
HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION...THOUGH IT IS A
LITTLE TOO FAR WEST COMPARED TO THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE FEATURE
AND LIKELY A FEW HOURS SLOW.

THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH THE SUPPORT
OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL DEVELOP INTO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GULF COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL AS IT TRAVERSES THE EASTERN GULF.

INITIAL ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL BE WITH THE WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY LIFTING THROUGH PALM BEACH COUNTY AND WELL MARKED BY A
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT.
EXTRAPOLATION HAS THE FRONT THROUGH THE TREASURE COAST AND MELBOURNE
AROUND DAYBREAK...VOLUSIA COUNTY AND THE ORLANDO METRO BY MID
MORNING AND NORTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY
ACCELERATE FASTER IF THE GULF LOW TAKES SHAPE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY.

SOUTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IF THE WARM FRONT LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH EARLY
ENOUGH BEFORE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THE GULF SPREADS OVERHEAD.
SURFACE LOW TRACK WILL TRACK INTO THE BIG BEND REGION LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS/PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING
INTO THE WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST AHEAD OF IT IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SLOWING DOWN AS IT PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEEPENS OVERHEAD THE SURFACE LOW NEARLY STALLS.
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY INHIBIT FORMATION OF CELLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE LARGE COMPLEX...BUT WITH VEERED AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

SPC HAS MOST OF THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MENTIONED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INCREASING TO A
MODEST 35-45KTS...ESPECIALLY FROM ORLANDO-TITUSVILLE
NORTHWARDS...WITH SURFACE FLOW REMAINING A GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE FLOW WILL BE A LITTLE
MORE BACKED AND CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH. 500MB
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD TO A
RESPECTABLE -10C TO -12C MAKING HAIL A POSSIBILITY.

TONIGHT...RAIN AND STORMS LINGERING THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AS LOW
AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SLOW DOWN. THREAT FOR TORNADIC STORMS WILL
DIMINISH AS FLOW VEERS WEST-SOUTHWEST...THOUGHT 30-40KT FLOW JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY STILL BRING A
FEW STRONGER STORMS LATE INTO THE EVENING. MILD OVERNIGHT IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...CLOSED DEEP LAYER LOW WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH FL DURING THE DAY ON SAT...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE ATLC
OCEAN AROUND 00Z/SUNSET. TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WILL WRAP AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW...LEAVING BETTER MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE
FAR NORTHERN CWA. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL
RETRACT INTO THE ATLC...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SETTLING IN BEGINNING
SUNDAY. MAIN CHANGE TO THE FCST WAS TO REMOVE MENTION OF TS AS
MEAN MOISTURE LOOKING A BIT LIMITED...EVEN WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT
BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. FOR SAT...MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S NORTH/CTRL
TO L-M80S SOUTH WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. ON SUNDAY...U70S NORTH HALF
AND L80S SOUTH HALF WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.

MON-THU...HIGH PRES SETTLES SWD ACROSS FL FROM THE SOUTHEAST MON
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING ATLC LOW. TAIL END OF NRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS FL TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED...WITH WEAK AND LIKELY
DRY COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS FL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LOOKS NEXT TO NIL. CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS MONDAY
RISING TO ABOUT A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE NORMAL FROM TUE ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 17/15Z...BAND OF SHRA/TSRA LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION WITH WARM FRONT WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF
ACTUAL BAND PRIMARILY ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FL020-030
PRESENT AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND. TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY
CONVECTION. 17/15Z-17/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CIGS FL035-040 WITH SCT
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA BEHIND INITIAL WARM FRONT. AFTER 17/18Z...
MCS/PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION PUSHING INTO FL PENINSULA FROM WEST TO
EAST. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING BRINGING THE CURRENT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
20KTS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TO 15-20KTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEHIND WARM FRONT...LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
FROM THE PREVIOUS LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH...WITH 8-9FT OFFSHORE/
6-7FT NEARSHORE THIS MORNING BECOMING 5-6FT NEARSHORE/6-7FT OFFSHORE
BY THIS EVENING. TIMING ADVISORY CONDITIONS IS TOUGH GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WARM FRONT...BUT SINCE SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED EVEN
IF WINDS DROP A LITTLE BELOW CRITERIA WILL KEEP ADVISORY GOING FOR
WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND THE
OFFSHORE LEG THROUGH THIS EVENING. IF WINDS DROP OFF MORE QUICKLY...
THIS MAY BECOME AN ADVISORY JUST FOR SEAS.

OVERALL HOWEVER POOR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FOR SMALL CRAFT. IN
ADDITION TO SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFTING NORTH WITH THE WARM FRONT
THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SAT-TUE...SWRLY FLOW ON SAT WILL VEER TO NW BY LATE SAT NIGHT WITH
LOW CENTER IN CLOSE ENOUGH PROXIMITY TO LOCAL MAOR TO KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS A LITTLE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS BUT STILL SOLID CAUTIONARY CONDS.
HOWEVER...SCA CONDS WILL EVENTUALLY OCCUR FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS PGRAD TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS WILL VEER FURTHER
TO NRLY AND INCREASE TO 20-25KT AND GUSTY WITH FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS
OF 10-12FT...PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM IF WINDS ARE
CLOSER TO 25KT OR SO. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO FL BEHIND THE ATLC LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  72  58  74 /  60  40  30  20
MCO  67  76  58  79 /  60  30  30  10
MLB  70  78  61  77 /  60  40  20  10
VRB  71  80  59  78 /  60  40  20  10
LEE  65  75  56  78 /  60  40  30  10
SFB  68  75  56  78 /  60  40  20  10
ORL  67  76  58  79 /  60  30  30  10
FPR  72  81  60  78 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI






000
FXUS62 KTBW 180803
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
403 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...
...ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
AN AMPLIFYING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GRADUALLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE
(PW`S 1.7 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE) STREAMING NORTH INTO THE REGION ON AN
INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT AND AN INCREASINGLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS LIKELY TO RESIDE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
CLOSEST TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES.

IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING WILL PRODUCE CAPE VALUES AOA 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KNOTS VIA BUFKIT
DATA...AND MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND COLD
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES (-10 TO -12C AT 500MB) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
ALONG AN INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE DURING LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN
A FEW TORNADOES.

HIGH RAIN CHANCES (POPS 60 PERCENT ) ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF A
SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION MOVES IN
FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS
DRIER AIR WRAPPING IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE GULF...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING
TO AROUND 30 PERCENT.

THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN GA AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IN THE
VICINITY OF KJAX EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE DAY...WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FAR SOUTH. IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE EXPECTED.

UPPER AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH PLEASANT DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.
NEAR SEASONAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FALL TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL RETURN TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS ON EASTER SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING
THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM
NEARS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...AIDED BY A 500MB TROUGH DIGGING
THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...LIKELY
WEAK ENOUGH TO LACK MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OPPORTUNITIES. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO END THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL...WITH NO MAJOR TASTES
OF CHILLY AIR EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING TERMINALS TO MVFR/BRIEF IFR.

&&

.MARINE...
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COMBINED WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS SUPPORTING A 6 MB
GRADIENT OVER THE GULF WATERS THIS MORNING WHICH IS SUPPORTING AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW AROUND 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM
ENGLEWOOD NORTH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS WINDS
REMAIN IN THE EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL AND WILL RETAIN THESE HEADLINES
IN THE 430 AM COASTAL PACKAGE. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF TODAY WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS EXPECTED. TONIGHT A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA. PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE WATERS...WITH ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BRING ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS TO THE GULF WATERS AND INLAND
WATERWAYS TODAY ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
AREA BEACHES. LIGHTER WINDS AND SEAS WILL RETURN TO THE WATERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
VALUES TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS WITH NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED. INCREASING 20 FOOT
WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED DISPERSION INDICES
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  66  74  60 /  70  60  20  10
FMY  85  70  81  62 /  40  60  20  10
GIF  83  67  79  58 /  60  60  20  10
SRQ  81  69  75  62 /  60  60  20  10
BKV  82  65  76  54 /  70  60  20  10
SPG  81  67  72  63 /  60  60  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/AVIATION...02/GARCIA








000
FXUS62 KMFL 180720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...
...DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


.SHORT TERM...
.TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.


.EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 180720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...
...DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


.SHORT TERM...
.TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.


.EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180532
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY WELL
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, SO HAVE
PREVAILING VFR EXCEPT FOR IFR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KAPF WHERE IFR
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY HOLDING THERE, BUT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS.
DID INTRODUCE VCTS BY 00Z AT KAPF AND AT 03Z FOR THE EAST COAST
AS THIS IS WHEN ACTIVITY FROM THE GULF COULD FINALLY BEGIN TO MORE
IN. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB



MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  64  82 /  50  40  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  65  81 /  50  40  10  10
MIAMI            74  86  66  81 /  50  40  10  10
NAPLES           69  79  63  81 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 180532
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY WELL
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, SO HAVE
PREVAILING VFR EXCEPT FOR IFR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KAPF WHERE IFR
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY HOLDING THERE, BUT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS.
DID INTRODUCE VCTS BY 00Z AT KAPF AND AT 03Z FOR THE EAST COAST
AS THIS IS WHEN ACTIVITY FROM THE GULF COULD FINALLY BEGIN TO MORE
IN. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB



MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  64  82 /  50  40  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  65  81 /  50  40  10  10
MIAMI            74  86  66  81 /  50  40  10  10
NAPLES           69  79  63  81 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KTBW 180336 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1136 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST HAS ALLOWED WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH TO
THE SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20-60NM. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
WATERS. COASTAL MARINE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY
TO REFLECT THESE HEADLINES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 913 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
A RESIDUAL AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA...THOUGH CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY
DYING DOWN THIS EVENING. THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH NO DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT OR TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRADIENT. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...A BROAD MCS IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
LOW IS SET TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE PENINSULA AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG DURATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...SO A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LEVY COUNTY VALID THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE POPS...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND THE ZONE
FORECAST WAS RESENT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

AVIATION...
BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY REGION BY 03Z
CAUSING SOME BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THEN LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

MARINE...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
GULF WATERS AND TAMPA BAY. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND MUCH OF THE
MARINE AREA WILL CONTINUE CARRYING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY BY AROUND NOON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  80  66  78 /  50  70  50  40
FMY  69  87  69  82 /  40  60  50  40
GIF  67  83  65  79 /  50  70  60  50
SRQ  69  81  68  79 /  60  70  50  40
BKV  67  81  63  76 /  40  70  60  40
SPG  70  80  68  77 /  60  70  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...18/FLEMING
AVIATION...69/CLOSE








000
FXUS62 KKEY 180253
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING
THE ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING NEAR 80...AND DEW POINTS ARE
CURIOUSLY CREEPING DOWNWARDS TO NEAR 70 AT ISLAND OBSERVING STATIONS.
EVENING SOUNDING PORTRAYED NEAR 20 KNOT EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
DEPTH OF AT LEAST 850 MB...WHICH ALONG WITH AREA OBSERVATIONS
REQUIRED AND EARLY UPDATE TO HOIST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE IN A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT. TURBULENT WINDS IN THE
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP AN AMPLE TRIGGER FOR
BOUNDARY-LAYER INDUCED POP-UP SHOWERS UNTIL MORE ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC
LIFT ARRIVES AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE ZFP OR PUBLIC GRIDDED
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. ONLY NECESSARY UPDATE EARLIER ON IN THE
SHIFT WAS NECESSARY TO INCLUDE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL ISLAND LOCATIONS
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 4 AM ACROSS ALL
WATERS. EXPECT THAT A GRADUAL SHIFT TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
SHOULD CAUSE THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY LONGER
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL WATERS BY THE MID MORNING TIME PERIOD AND WINDS SHOULD
ABRUPTLY EVOLVE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS MAY STILL BE SEEN INSIDE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. FRESH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO MAY BRING A ROUND OR TWO OF MVFR VIS AND CEILINGS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ042>044-052>055-
     072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KMLB 180154
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
954 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST THROUGH FRI MORNING...
...CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING THROUGH EASTER AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WAS PROVIDING A GUSTY NORTHEAST-EAST FLOW.  THE NORTHEAST COMPONENT
HAS CONFINED THE HIGHEST DEW POINT AIR TO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST. ATLANTIC SHOWERS
HAVE MOSTLY BEEN LIGHT EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED DOWNPOURS.  THE HIGHER
MOISTURE WILL LIFT GRADUALLY NORTH OVERNIGHT AS POORLY DEFINED WARM
FRONT GETS PULLED NORTH BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  THE LOCAL WRF STILL SHOWS A CHANCE FOR MORE CONCENTRATED
AND HEAVIER RAINFALL SOUTH OF CANAVERAL AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH. WILL BUMP POPS UP THERE TO 40 PERCENT.

FRI...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER TEMPS.

THE HRRR MODEL SHOWS A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO ADVANCING EASTWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE
SURFACE LOW.  EXTRAPOLATION FROM THIS MODEL SHOWS THE CONVECTION
REACHING THE WEST COAST IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS INDICATED SO IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WILL HOLD TOGETHER WELL AS IT TRAVERSES THE GULF.
CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY INHIBIT FORMATION OF CELLS OUT
AHEAD OF THE LARGE COMPLEX...BUT WITH VEERED AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL
WINDS...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.  RIGHT NOW WE
ARE CALLING FOR LOW PROBABILITIES OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING WITH A
CHANCE OF IFR AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS UP THE PENINSULA AND PRODUCES
AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. CEILINGS WILL LIFT BY FRI
AFTERNOON AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS EXISTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS PRESENTLY AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH
SEAS 6-9 FEET.  A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
REACH NORTH OF THE WATERS BY LATE MORNING FRI.  MARINE MOS INDICATES
THE TRANSITION FROM EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR AROUND 12Z AT
41009.  THERE IS A CORRESPONDING DROP OFF OF WINDS TO 15-20 KNOTS AT
THAT TIME. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CENTRAL WATERS UNTIL
AT LEAST 10 AM FRI AND IN THE NORTH TO 4 PM FRI...DUE TO NEAR 20
KNOT FLOW AND SEAS NEAR 7 FEET. THE SOUTHERN WATERS SHOULD DROP
OFF TO 15 KNOTS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE POOR THERE FOR
SMALL CRAFT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG STORMS PUSHING OFFSHORE
BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20
     NM-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KTAE 180139
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
939 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Heavy Rain over the Gulf of Mexico will move northeast
overnight...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Significant storm system is taking shape this evening over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Expansive area of deep
convection has blossomed over the central Gulf in association with
the approaching shortwave. At the same time, intensifying region
of isentropic lift is generating an expanding rain shield across the
northeastern Gulf. Even further east, weaker isentropic lift
coupled with some elevated instability has allowed for showers and
isolated thunderstorms to develop over Apalachee Bay into the
central Big Bend this evening, a few hours earlier than previously
forecast.

As the upper shortwave continues to move east overnight, low
pressure will deepen over the central Gulf, with increasing
southerly flow riding up and over the strong surface ridge parked
along the eastern seaboard. This will expand the region of strong
isentropic lift northward into the Panhandle and Big Bend
producing a large expanse of moderate to occasionally heavy
rainfall.

Have increased the PoPs this evening for coastal areas to account
for the earlier onset of rainfall. Otherwise, the forecast remains
on track through the remainder of the night. Rainfall totals by
sunrise will likely exceed 1 inch for coastal areas of the
Panhandle.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Saturday] Expect MVFR conditions across the area by
04z as ceilings continue to lower in advance of the approaching
storm system. Before sunrise, expect widespread heavy rain to
overspread the area with IFR conditions likely both due low
visibilities and ceilings. Conditions will trend back toward MVFR
late in the afternoon, especially at ECP/DHN as the heavier rain
starts to move away from those terminals after 20z.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas are on the increase this evening as developing low
pressure over the central Gulf works to tighten the gradient over
the coastal waters. Buoy south of Panama City recently reported 27
knot sustained winds with gust to 31 knots and 10 foot seas. With
this observation, along with general increase in forecast winds
from much of the guidance, have bumped the winds up a few knots
for the remainder of the overnight hours into Friday morning. This
necessitates expanding the Gale Warning to the eastern offshore
waters, and extending the Small Craft Advisory over the nearshore
Big Bend waters.

&&

.Prev Discussion [258 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The first half of this period will be marked by heavy rain and
likely flooding. Aloft...Fri morning begins highly amplified with
ridging over Wrn states and extreme Wrn Atlc. In between...exists an
upper trough the result of srn/Nrn stream merging with a low over
Wrn Gulf. During the day...a strong shortwave begins to cutoff from
Nrn stream flow and develops a low that closes over Srn AL by
sundown. This will induce significant divergent flow over Nrn Gulf
of Mex. Low then advances Ewd to Ern seaboard Sat aftn and then
offshore at night with upper ridging building into the forecast area
overnight.

At surface...In response to above upper trough/low...assocd low had
already developed in Wrn Gulf with warm front ESE across Cntrl FL.
By sunrise Fri...intensifying closed low lifts Newd to around 100
miles south of Pensacola with front lifting further Nwd. Under
cutoff upper low...surface reflection slows down and with assocd
large stratiform shield of moderate to heavy rain begins to
strengthen and inch Newd. By sundown...upper low and surface
reflection phase and become vertically stacked and along with
lifting warm front quasi-stnry across FL Big Bend. Fortunately...
another SRN stream anomaly will be propagating EWD into the Wrn
Gulf overnight Friday, keeping a rather steady west wind aloft and
allowing the surface low to gradually drift away from land into the
Wrn Atlc by mid-morning Saturday. In its wake a ridge will
build in.

The forecast will focus on the combination of upper/lower features
and their impact on heavy rain and flooding. Models have come into
better agreement with the quicker GFS still a 6hr outlier. Area
soundings during Fri shows totally saturated nearly uni-directional
SSW profiles with PWATs around 1.8 inches. They are in agreement
that widespread heavy rains will overspread our local area Fri into
Fri eve, further aggravating ongoing river flooding with potentially
significant impacts. At this time it appears as though 3 to 4 inches
of rain will be common across SE AL, south Georgia, and north FL.
With average amounts that high, confidence is increasing that
isolated locations could pick up anywhere between 4-6 inches. That
being said, this rainfall will likely fall over an extended period
of time resulting in, for the most part, slow water rises. For that
reason, a more general Flood Watch remains in effect as opposed to a
Flash Flood Watch. However, the flash flooding potential is non-zero
and will be highest near rivers currently running at high levels and
in our more urban locations.

With regard to strong to severe weather...guidance with better
chance that with previous runs. On the one hand...extensive cloud
shield should  weak lapse rates aloft and we will have saturated
soundings. However any diurnal heating should have modest impact on
cape. Also approaching low should yield and increase in low and deep
layer shear. so although overall risk not high...cant discount
strong to an even isold severe storm if all ingredient come
together. The focus will be across mainly the extreme SE Big Bend of
Florida and adjacent waters in the afternoon. 100% chance of rain.
Under cloudy and rainy skies...high temps will struggle to reach 60
across much of SE AL and Srn Ga with areas of SE Big Bend reaching
to around 70.

High Risk of Rip Currents from Walton to Franklin Counties in effect
through Fri Eve. Possible coastal flooding issues will be addressed
tonight.

By Friday night, the heavy rain threat will have diminished, though
wrap around light showers will continue on the back side of the
departing low pressure until it has moved far enough east. Will go
with 30-80% SW-NE POP gradient. A 20-40% chance of rain remains for
Ern counties Sat morning but areas should be rain free by eve.
Expect lows Fri night from near 50 Nrn tier GA counties to near 60
SE Big Bend..and in the mid 50s everywhere Sat night. Highs Sat will
range from low-mid 70s in relatively cloud free west to mid 60s over
cloudy NE Tier GA counties closest to departing low.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
By Sunday, upper and surface ridge build into the region. By Monday
night...next weak trough and shortwave moves into Gulf region with
weak zonal flow across local area. A surface low well to our NW
brings a weak front to the Nrn Gulf before retreating back Nwd on
Wed. This will bring a slight chance of rain and isold thunderstorms
to the NRN counties Tues and Tues night followed by drying trend.
Throughout the entire period, both high and low temps will shows a
gradual warming trend. Inland highs Sun in the mid to upper 70s will
rise to the mid 80s Wed and Thurs. Inland Lows Sun night in the low
to mid 50s will rise by Thurs night to the low 60s.


.Fire Weather...
Low level moisture will quickly increase across the region with a
wetting rain expected across the entire region from late tonight
through Friday night. Drier and breezy conditions will then arrive
for most of the weekend. However, it does not appear that RH will
get low enough to be concerned about red flag criteria, especially
with the wet fuels.


.Hydrology...
We continue to be on track for a moderate to heavy rainfall event
across much of the forecast area Friday and into Friday Night.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected to be fairly common,
with higher amounts perhaps up to 5 to 6 inches will be possible.
In general, the rivers most likely to flood and have higher
impacts will be in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where flows
are already somewhat elevated. Where the heaviest rain falls,
there should also be other flooding on smaller streams and creeks,
as well as areas of high water in low-lying areas and fields.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  65  52  70  53 /  90 100  60  30  10
Panama City   60  65  55  73  57 / 100 100  40  10  10
Dothan        55  60  51  72  52 / 100 100  60  30  10
Albany        54  60  50  68  52 /  80 100  70  40  10
Valdosta      57  66  53  65  53 /  60 100  70  40  20
Cross City    62  73  59  69  53 /  60 100  60  30  20
Apalachicola  62  66  55  71  58 /  90 100  40  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday through late Friday
     night for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday night for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through late Friday night for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS









000
FXUS62 KMFL 180118
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB



MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180118
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB



MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180118
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB



MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180118
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB



MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KTBW 180113
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
913 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
A RESIDUAL AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA...THOUGH CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY
DYING DOWN THIS EVENING. THE REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH NO DISTINCT
WIND SHIFT OR TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT GRADIENT. FARTHER TO THE
WEST...A BROAD MCS IS SLOWLY PUSHING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
LOW IS SET TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS SYSTEM...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE PENINSULA AND MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2
INCHES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LONG DURATIONS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...SO A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR LEVY COUNTY VALID THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

THE POPS...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED AND THE ZONE
FORECAST WAS RESENT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAMPA BAY REGION BY 03Z
CAUSING SOME BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. THEN LATER TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION ARRIVING DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
GULF WATERS AND TAMPA BAY. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AND MUCH OF THE
MARINE AREA WILL CONTINUE CARRYING EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
INTO FRIDAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GULF AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH WITH BUILDING WINDS AND SEAS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY BY AROUND NOON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  80  66  78 /  50  70  50  40
FMY  69  87  69  82 /  40  60  50  40
GIF  67  83  65  79 /  50  70  60  50
SRQ  69  81  68  79 /  60  70  50  40
BKV  67  81  63  76 /  40  70  60  40
SPG  70  80  68  77 /  60  70  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...18/FLEMING
AVIATION...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KJAX 180047
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
847 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE REMAINS IN PLACE DOWN THE ATLC COASTAL AREAS
WHILE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE GOMEX. THIS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS CONTINUED GUSTY E/NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST
AND HAVE CONTINUED THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES INTO FRIDAY. A
SINGULAR BAND OF LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC
W/SW INTO THE JAX METRO AREA AND NORTHWARD TO THE FL/GA BORDER.
NOT MUCH MOVEMENT OF THIS LINE AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN PLACE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE SOME RAINFALL FROM THE EASTERN
GOMEX AND TREND NORTHEAST ENOUGH TOWARDS MORNING AND WILL IMPACT
THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL/SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY/INLD SE GA
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND ELEVATED WINDS
WILL KEEP MOST AREAS WITH STEADY TEMPS IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY...AS LOW TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST GOMEX IT WILL SEND LARGE
SLUG OF MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINFALL INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL LIFT OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH MAY BE THE FOCUS OF ISOLD
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S ACROSS SE GA BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
PUSH INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS NE FL AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION. RAINFALL WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS SE
GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY BUT MAY BE MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
WITH STORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE FL AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...THEN PICK BACK UP AFTER SUNRISE. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GULF ON FRIDAY...TERMINALS
WILL TREND TOWARD PREVAILING IFR IN THE MORNING...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
NE/E WINDS AT 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AS THEY SLOWLY BECOME E/SE BY
THE AFTERNOON AT 15-20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AS SEAS CONTINUE IN THE 7-10 FT
RANGE.

SURF ZONE/RIP CURRENTS: LOCAL BEACH REPORTS TODAY SUPPORT HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG WITH BREAKERS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE JUST
BELOW HIGH SURF CRITERIA. NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT WITH TIDAL
DEPARTURES AROUND A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL COME IN JUST BELOW
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. BIGGER CONCERN IS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL ARRIVE ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE URBANIZED AREAS
OF JACKSONVILLE, BRUNSWICK AND ST AUGUSTINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCH STORM RAINFALL TOTALS BY SATURDAY WILL PUSH
RIVER FLOODING WELL INTO MODERATE FLOODING CATEGORIES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE SUWANNEE AND SANTA FE RIVER BASINS WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE RIVER BASINS REACH OR REMAIN IN
MINOR FLOOD CATEGORY STATUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  62  54  67 /  30 100 100  50
SSI  61  69  60  66 /  30 100 100  60
JAX  62  73  60  67 /  30 100  90  50
SGJ  66  74  63  69 /  30 100  90  50
GNV  62  75  60  70 /  40 100  90  40
OCF  65  77  62  72 /  40  90  80  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KMFL 180004
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB



MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 171937
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
337 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY WITH SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - BROAD SCALE TROUGHING DOMINATED MUCH OF THE CONUS..WITH AN
AXIS FROM THE MANITOBA-ONTARIO BORDER TO THE TX BIG BEND AND RIO
GRANDE VALLEY REGION...WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE
THAT SPRAWLED ACROSS QUEBEC AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES RIDGED ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WARM FRONT/MOISTURE
BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS SOUTHERN FL FROM THE BAHAMAS TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM (TONIGHT AND FRI)...
THE FRONT/BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE RESULTING IN
CONSIDERABLE COVERS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING. THE STORMS WIND DOWN AS THE SHOWERS SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
AREAS. MEANWHILE THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS INTO GULF
WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING ON THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FRONT.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND ACROSS NORTH FL
WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOME ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT. ANTICIPATE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY APPROACH
STRONG TO SEVERE LIMITS. THE GREAT THREATS WILL BE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TIMING GENERALLY ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST AND AREAS SOUTH OF THERE IN THE AFTERNOON. LATER SHIFTS
WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO FINE TURN TIMING ALSO...TOTAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 INCHES RANGE. SOME LOCALIZE FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH ACROSS LEVY COUNTY TO SUPPORT A FLOOD WATCH
FROM FRI MOORING THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

.MID TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE FRONT/BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST AND NE WITH THE SURFACE LOW EXITS THE
STATE SAT WITH DECEASING MOISTURE RESULTING IN SLOW CLEARING OF THE
CLOUDS AND LOWERING IN RAIN CHANCES.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE PUSHING EAST ON MONDAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND 500 MB DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...ONLY TO BE THWARTED BY A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM FIZZLES OUT TO END THE EXTENDED
AS IT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL...MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
DRASTIC CHANGES BETWEEN AIR MASSES. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION BY THE WARMING
GULF WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS WITH VCNTY TSRA THIS AFTERNOON THEN GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
LATE NIGHT WITH VCNTY SHRA FRI.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT AN EASTERLY SURGE THIS EVENING WITH EXERCISE CAUTION OR
ADVISORY HEADLINES POSSIBLE. LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NE GULF
FRI VEER INCREASING WINDS THROUGH THE SOUTH TO WEST AND NW LATE FRI
NIGHT OR EARLY SAT ADVISORY LEVEL SPEEDS WINDS LIKELY INTO THE
WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS BACK FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW RH
CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME DRYING
BUT RH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  80  66  78 /  30  70  50  40
FMY  69  87  69  82 /  30  60  50  40
GIF  67  83  65  79 /  20  70  60  50
SRQ  69  81  68  79 /  30  70  50  40
BKV  67  81  63  76 /  40  70  60  40
SPG  70  80  68  77 /  30  70  50  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
     FOR COASTAL LEVY-INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/NEAR TERM/MID TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...GARCIA
AVIATION...69/CLOSE








000
FXUS62 KMLB 171936
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

..WET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTHWARD
RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDFLOW AROUND THE SOUTHEAST AREA OF THE HIGH WAS PUSHING MARINE
STRATOCU ASHORE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE 915MHZ VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS AT THE SPACE CENTER BEAR THIS OUT WITH EASTERLY 20 TO 25
KNOTS WINDS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5000 FEET/APPROX
850MB. THE WINDS THEN MAKE AN ABRUPT SHIFT TO THE WEST AT AROUND
6500 FEET AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST TO 10000 FEET WHICH IS THE
UPPER LIMIT OF THE 915MHZ RECORDING HEIGHTS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT WAS ANALYZED AS A DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS MORNING HAS MOVED TO JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE.
WEATHER RADARS DETECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

TONIGHT...MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS WERE INDICATING THAT THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN AN INCH AND A HALF AND 1.9 INCHES
AND THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MOVING OVER THE
LOWER LAYER EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GIVE US AT LEAST CHANCE...30-50
PERCENT... OF OVERNIGHT RAINS.

FRIDAY...THE NEWLY FORMED WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD AS THE
LOW TRACKS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST CROSSING NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE
ATLANTIC EAST OF GEORGIA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING OVER
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDFLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES RANGING FROM AROUND 60 PERCENT SOUTHERN AREAS TO 80 TO 90
PERCENT NORTHERN AREAS. HAVE KEPT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FRIDAY
FORECAST AS COLDER...-10C TO -12C...MID LEVEL AIR MOVES OVERHEAD
STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES
OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
SOUTHERN AREAS TO LOW 80S NORTHWEST VOLUSIA AND NORTHEAST LAKE
COUNTIES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING CLEARING CENTRAL
FLORIDA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MID AND UPPER 60S.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ADVECTING GULF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50
PERCENT AREA. HIGHS RANGE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTHWEST
LAKE COUNTY TO THE MID 80S ON THE IN THE AREAS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY BRING COOLER
AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS REMAIN FAIRLY PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN VERY GUNG HO IN LIFTING THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWARD TREND MAY BE STARTING AS ONE HEAVY RAINBAND SET UP EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SOUTHWARDS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF WIND
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER. THIS IS WHERE RADAR IS ALSO NOW
PICKING UP ON A RECENT UPSWING IN SHOWER COVERAGE.

LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK OVER
THE TREASURE COAST...BUT HRRR MODEL KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY MORE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE OR IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY BANDS MAY SET UP UNTIL THEY DO...BUT JUST AHEAD OF/ALONG WARM
FRONT WOULD BE THE BEST BET. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
FREQUENCY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.

FRONTAL REMNANTS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...ACCELERATING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARDS AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. HAVE TAPERED BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO 20 PERCENT NORTHERN INTERIOR TO 60 PERCENT OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE
COAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/MODEL FORECAST. COULD SEE A FEW
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...IT DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN
CHOPPY ON AREA LAKES.

COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
TIMING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED ANYWHERE FROM LOW 70S ALONG VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 IN BREVARD/TREASURE COAST. INTERIOR
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MILD OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR/AROUND 70S
COAST.

FRI-SUN...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS DECIDEDLY
SLOWER AND WETTER INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST BEFORE PINCHING OFF
INTO A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW INVOF THE FL/AL/GA TRI-STATE REGION FRI
NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOMEWHERE BTWN THE
FL/GA BORDER AND PENINSULAR NORTH FL ON SAT...EASING OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND DRIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST
ON SUN.

AT THE SURFACE...AVBL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED TOWARD A MORE
AGREEABLE (SLOWER) SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST. SFC FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP INTO A LOW AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NERN GOMEX FRI...WITH THE SFC AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY FRI NIGHT OVER NORTH FL. SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TAKE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL NWD ACROSS NORTH FL/GA...WHILE ECFL
BREAKS OUT INTO  THE WARM SECTOR OF THE GOMEX LOW. DEEP LAYER S-SW
FLOW WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF STRONGER STORMS TO REACH CTRL FL
FROM THE GOMEX (N/W OF I-4) AROUND SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE) AND
CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...AND
THEN LINGER OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST THROUGHOUT SAT. SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME STORMS GIVEN THE COLD H50 TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE H50 LOW OVHD.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY IN COOL/MOIST NRLY FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE GRUDGINGLY SLOW TO PUT SPACE
BETWEEN ITSELF AND FL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.

MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES IN TOWARD FL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND DRYING CONDS OUT. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASCD MOISTURE BAND TAKING A GLANCING SHOT AT NORTH
FL TUE-NIGHT INTO WED...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO INVOLVED IN DISSECTING
DAY 6-7 POPS GIVEN THE MORE SIG WX IN DAYS 1-3.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT AND WITH AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES SLOWLY UP
THE PENINSULA.  PREVAILING VFR OVC FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT CLEARS
AND WE ARE IN THE WARM SECTOR.

PREVIOUS AVIATION

MOIST AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL IT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST INSIDE VFR WITH PREVAILING
CIGS FL035-050. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS
FL020-030. ISOLD SHRA MOVING ONSHORE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KVRB
THROUGH 13Z...THEN BECOMING SCT-NMRS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH-NORTH AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW HEAVIER SHRA MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SITES. COULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION.


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA BUOYS 009 AND 010 WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEAS. THE TWO SCRIPPS BUOYS 4
AND 6NM OFF THE COAST WERE RECORDING 4 AND 7 FEET RESPECTIVELY.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A SLOW
MOVING WARM FRONT WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THROUGH THE EVENING THROUGH 4AM COASTAL ISSUANCE.

FRI...WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THE COASTAL WATERS COME
INTO THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH AND THE
COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS DECREASE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE WARM SECTOR DECREASES BUT EXPECT TO
HAVE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WITH 15-20KT AND SEAS TO 6FT
POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER.

SAT-MON (MODIFIED)... COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS/GUSTY WINDS WILL
REMAIN MARINE THREATS INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO PICK BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE
THE FL EAST COAST AND PGRAD TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO
7-10FT OR A LITTLE HIGHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS W-NW WINDS SHIFT
TO N AND NNE BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
WINDS SEAS MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  78  68  74 /  30  90  60  30
MCO  68  82  67  79 /  30  80  60  30
MLB  72  81  71  79 /  30  60  60  30
VRB  72  81  71  80 /  30  60  60  30
LEE  66  79  65  77 /  30  90  60  30
SFB  67  82  68  79 /  30  80  60  30
ORL  68  82  67  79 /  30  80  60  30
FPR  72  82  70  81 /  30  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...WIMMER
IMPACT WX...VOLKMER







000
FXUS62 KMFL 171903
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB


&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  40  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171903
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB


&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  40  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171903
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB


&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  40  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171903
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB


&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  40  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG




000
FXUS62 KTAE 171858
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
258 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Heavy Rain Likely Friday with Widespread Flooding Possible...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The heavy rainfall event is still on track to begin late tonight as
an area of low pressure develops in the Gulf along an enhanced
low-level baroclinic zone. There is already evidence of this
occurring as a large area of thunderstorms has developed today over
the western Gulf as a potent southern stream disturbance ejects out
of northern Mexico. A large area of stratiform rain is expected to
overspread the western portions of the area tonight north of the
surface low track, some of which could become heavy late tonight
over the western areas. However, the vast majority of the heavy rain
will hold off until during the day on Friday. PoPs will be low to
start the night and then trend significantly higher as the night
progresses.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The first half of this period will be marked by heavy rain and
likely flooding. Aloft...Fri morning begins highly amplified with
ridging over Wrn states and extreme Wrn Atlc. In between...exists an
upper trough the result of srn/Nrn stream merging with a low over
Wrn Gulf. During the day...a strong shortwave begins to cutoff from
Nrn stream flow and develops a low that closes over Srn AL by
sundown. This will induce significant divergent flow over Nrn Gulf
of Mex. Low then advances Ewd to Ern seaboard Sat aftn and then
offshore at night with upper ridging building into the forecast area
overnight.

At surface...In response to above upper trough/low...assocd low had
already developed in Wrn Gulf with warm front ESE across Cntrl FL.
By sunrise Fri...intensifying closed low lifts Newd to around 100
miles south of Pensacola with front lifting further Nwd. Under
cutoff upper low...surface reflection slows down and with assocd
large stratiform shield of moderate to heavy rain begins to
strengthen and inch Newd. By sundown...upper low and surface
reflection phase and become vertically stacked and along with
lifting warm front quasi-stnry across FL Big Bend. Fortunately...
another SRN stream anomaly will be propagating EWD into the Wrn
Gulf overnight Friday, keeping a rather steady west wind aloft and
allowing the surface low to gradually drift away from land into the
Wrn Atlc by mid-morning Saturday. In its wake a ridge will
build in.

The forecast will focus on the combination of upper/lower features
and their impact on heavy rain and flooding. Models have come into
better agreement with the quicker GFS still a 6hr outlier. Area
soundings during Fri shows totally saturated nearly uni-directional
SSW profiles with PWATs around 1.8 inches. They are in agreement
that widespread heavy rains will overspread our local area Fri into
Fri eve, further aggravating ongoing river flooding with potentially
significant impacts. At this time it appears as though 3 to 4 inches
of rain will be common across SE AL, south Georgia, and north FL.
With average amounts that high, confidence is increasing that
isolated locations could pick up anywhere between 4-6 inches. That
being said, this rainfall will likely fall over an extended period
of time resulting in, for the most part, slow water rises. For that
reason, a more general Flood Watch remains in effect as opposed to a
Flash Flood Watch. However, the flash flooding potential is non-zero
and will be highest near rivers currently running at high levels and
in our more urban locations.

With regard to strong to severe weather...guidance with better
chance that with previous runs. On the one hand...extensive cloud
shield should  weak lapse rates aloft and we will have saturated
soundings. However any diurnal heating should have modest impact on
cape. Also approaching low should yield and increase in low and deep
layer shear. so although overall risk not high...cant discount
strong to an even isold severe storm if all ingredient come
together. The focus will be across mainly the extreme SE Big Bend of
Florida and adjacent waters in the afternoon. 100% chance of rain.
Under cloudy and rainy skies...high temps will struggle to reach 60
across much of SE AL and Srn Ga with areas of SE Big Bend reaching
to around 70.

High Risk of Rip Currents from Walton to Franklin Counties in effect
through Fri Eve. Possible coastal flooding issues will be addressed
tonight.

By Friday night, the heavy rain threat will have diminished, though
wrap around light showers will continue on the back side of the
departing low pressure until it has moved far enough east. Will go
with 30-80% SW-NE POP gradient. A 20-40% chance of rain remains for
Ern counties Sat morning but areas should be rain free by eve.
Expect lows Fri night from near 50 Nrn tier GA counties to near 60
SE Big Bend..and in the mid 50s everywhere Sat night. Highs Sat will
range from low-mid 70s in relatively cloud free west to mid 60s over
cloudy NE Tier GA counties closest to departing low.

.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
By Sunday, upper and surface ridge build into the region. By Monday
night...next weak trough and shortwave moves into Gulf region with
weak zonal flow across local area. A surface low well to our NW
brings a weak front to the Nrn Gulf before retreating back Nwd on
Wed. This will bring a slight chance of rain and isold thunderstorms
to the NRN counties Tues and Tues night followed by drying trend.
Throughout the entire period, both high and low temps will shows a
gradual warming trend. Inland highs Sun in the mid to upper 70s will
rise to the mid 80s Wed and Thurs. Inland Lows Sun night in the low
to mid 50s will rise by Thurs night to the low 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] Conditions will gradually deteriorate
through the period as an area of low pressure develops in the
Gulf. MVFR ceilings are expected to lower to IFR later tonight
with rain spreading from south to north from late tonight through
the day on Friday. Rain may be heavy at times during the day
Friday.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory level conditions will continue through this evening for the
northern Gulf at the base of strong high pressure stretching down
the eastern U.S. coastline. Late tonight a strong surface low will
near our waters and may bring gale conditions through Friday for
waters west of Apalachicola. Latest guidance shows increasing
confidence in this so gale watch was upgraded to a warning for Wrn
waters. To the east Advisory conditions will likely prevail through
the passage of the low pressure. The possible gale conditions will
subside by Friday night, with advisory conditions diminishing by
Saturday evening.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Low level moisture will quickly increase across the region with a
wetting rain expected across the entire region from late tonight
through Friday night. Drier and breezy conditions will then arrive
for most of the weekend. However, it does not appear that RH will
get low enough to be concerned about red flag criteria, especially
with the wet fuels.

&&

.Hydrology...
We continue to be on track for a moderate to heavy rainfall event
across much of the forecast area Friday and into Friday Night.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are expected to be fairly common,
with higher amounts perhaps up to 5 to 6 inches will be possible.
In general, the rivers most likely to flood and have higher
impacts will be in the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend where flows
are already somewhat elevated. Where the heaviest rain falls,
there should also be other flooding on smaller streams and creeks,
as well as areas of high water in low-lying areas and fields.

A more detailed hydrology discussion is available on our ESF
(Hydrologic Outlook) product, which can be found here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=ESF&issuedby=TAE

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   59  65  52  70  53 /  90 100  60  30  10
Panama City   60  65  55  73  57 / 100 100  40  10  10
Dothan        55  60  51  72  52 / 100 100  60  30  10
Albany        54  60  50  68  52 /  80 100  70  40  10
Valdosta      57  66  53  65  53 /  60 100  70  40  20
Cross City    62  73  59  69  53 /  60 100  60  30  20
Apalachicola  62  66  55  71  58 /  90 100  40  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday through late Friday
     night for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal
     Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland
     Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland
     Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-
     Liberty-Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Friday through late Friday night for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through late Friday night for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Gale Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS









000
FXUS62 KKEY 171844
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPICT THE AXIS OF A NARROW YET SHARP UNSEASONABLY DEEP
FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH POSITIONED FROM MINNESOTA FROM TO CENTRAL
TEXAS. AN ENERGETIC SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM ROUNDS THIS
FEATURE FROM ACROSS OLD MEXICO TO ACROSS THE GULF HEADING TOWARDS
FLORIDA...WITH A LARGE MCS (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM) ON THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION NOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THAT...A 1040 MB PLUS COLD SURFACE HIGH IS
PARKED OVER NORTHERN MAINE...BUT A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...MUCH CLOSER TO THE KEYS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY WITH ONLY
A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND ONLY ONE OR TWO HAVE
MOVED ACROSS THE KEYS SO FAR AFTER THE NOON HOUR. THE MESOSCALE HAS
BEEN THWARTED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS HAVE BECOME MODERATE
AND THIS IS INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE SCALE MSLP GRADIENT...GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED EXCEPTIONALLY STRONG HIGH OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
C-MAN STATIONS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE ISLANDS ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE LOWER 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF ARE
EASTERLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS...BUT GUSTY.

.SHORT TERM FORECASTS...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ALL MODELS BRING
THE SHARP TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MODELS GENERALLY AGREEING THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE FORMATION OF A MIDDLE LEVEL
CYCLONE WHEN THIS SYSTEM REACHES THE EAST CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. BUT EXACT IMPLICATIONS OF THIS SCENARIO TEND TO BE A
LESS PREDICTABLE SCENARIO AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS UNUSUALLY LOW WITH
THESE EVENTS.

AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA...AND I WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF OUTFLOW MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA BAY AND BOTH NEARSHORE
AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING. THEREAFTER...MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL ALLOW
FOR ANY LEFTOVER SCATTERED BOUNDARIES FROM THIS EVENING THAT MANAGE
TO COLLIDE OVERNIGHT TO BECOME REINVIGORATED AS SHORT LIVED ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN DURING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALL
MODELS DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE AND MOVE IT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON SATURDAY...EXITING BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS
WILL FLOW INTO THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM...AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT STORM MOTION IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY CUBAN
CONVECTION TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD DURING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN THESE UNCERTAINTIES...WILL ONLY INDICATE A LOW TO MID CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING...VERY DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS WILL
FILTER AROUND THE DEPARTING CYCLONE...WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY
SHOWERS...DESPITE INSTABILITY...SO HAVE REMOVED POPS FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

.THEN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS WILL COME IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH STRONG SUN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...WINDS
WILL CLOCK FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWER HUMIDITY. TOTAL COLUMNAR MOISTURE WILL BE
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH...WITH NIL RAIN CHANCES.

EXTENDED...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
MOSTLY ZONAL/WEAKLY CYCLONIC. MUCH WEAKER SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD
IN OVER FLORIDA BEHIND THE BREEZY/NEAR BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE
WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED DIME POPS THROUGH THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO ONLY INCREASE TO BETWEEN
1.00 AND 1.25 INCHES...GIVEN A VERY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO EASTERLY
PROFILE UNDER STRONG INSOLATION.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS ACROSS ALL WATERS ONCE AGAIN
THIS EVENING AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS LET
DOWN APPRECIABLY AS THEY CLOCK AROUND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT PRESENTLY ADVERTISED ACROSS
HAWK CHANNEL AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS BUT ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING.WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN CUBAN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CAUTIONS LIKELY ON ALL
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD LET DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z. EXPECT OUTFLOW FROM MAINLAND
SEA BREEZE TO CROSS THE GULF SIDE WATERS...PRODUCING SIMILAR RESULTS
TO LAST EVENINGS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...BECOMING GUSTY IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...THE RECORD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS IS 62 DEGREES ON APRIL 17TH. THIS
OCCURRED TWICE...ONCE IN 1873 AND THE LATEST IN 1987. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  84  75  82  72 / 30  30  40  20  -
MARATHON  76  87  75  84  72 / 30  30  40  20  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS....DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS......FJ/BWC
DATA COLLECTION........CLR

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST










000
FXUS62 KJAX 171813
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
213 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ARE
APPROACHING MAINLY THE SE GA COAST...WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS LATE AFTN
INTO THE EVENING. THE THICK CANOPY OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS PLAGUED
THE AREA MUCH OF THE DAY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING OUT SOME.
WILL USE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF STACKED LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE. GIVEN A SLOWER
TREND...WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS OUT OF THE AREA TNGT...WITH MAINLY
LOW/MID END SCATTERED POPS BY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT. SEASONABLY
MILD LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S FAR INLAND WITH 60 TO 65 CLOSER TO
THE COAST WILL PREVAIL.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...THE 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH THE 12Z NAM STILL FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW. HOWEVER...THE NAM IS TRENDING SOMEWHAT
CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF. WILL GENERALLY USE A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
WITH PRECIP INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY WEST TO EAST FRIDAY MORNING
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR ALL AREAS BY LATER FRIDAY AFTN AND
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE SLOWLY BY LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO ENTER SE GA WITH
THE GREATEST LIFT/MOISTURE EXITING INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. A DEEP
MOISTURE TAP WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL
ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE RATHER WET ANTECEDENT SOIL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA INTO
NE FL...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL AREAS FOR FRIDAY AFTN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TRACK BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF...THINK
THE STRONG/SEVERE TSTM WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED TSTMS FOR NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL FL FRIDAY
AFTN/NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP...HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY ACROSS SE GA WILL HELD DOWN INTO THE
60S...WITH MILDER LOWER/MID 70S FOE NE FL. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TNGT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS STILL HAVE TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUT HAVE ENOUGH SIMILARITIES TO CONCLUDE THAT ON
SATURDAY THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL PHASE
TOGETHER OVER OUR REGION. SIGNIFICANT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
OVER SE GA...AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY PERSIST EARLY SAT MORNING FOR SOME AREAS BUT OVERALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER AS RAIN CHANCES DECREASE. BETWEEN THE RAIN
AND ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT MORE SUN OVER THE SRN ZONES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH
THE LOWER 70S. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO END FROM SW TO NE SAT
NIGHT...BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SUN FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 AT THE COAST.

STACKED CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SAT NIGHT/SUN...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR
REGION. DESPITE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM W TO E...HIGHS INLAND
CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH UPPER 60S. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO OUR
REGION LATE TUE AND ASSOCD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
LIMITED PRECIP. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN PREVAIL MID WEEK...WITH
HIGHS REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S WED/THUR. WEAK DISTURBANCES
IN THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS GA MAY PRODUCE LOW END POPS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS IS FORECAST THRU FRIDAY. IFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. STRONG
NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15-20G25KT...THEN DECREASE BELOW 12 KT
AROUND 01Z AT THE TERMINALS EXCEPT AT SSI. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
WITH VCSH BEGINNING 08Z. MORE STEADY RAIN ARRIVING BETWEEN
13Z-14Z FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NE FLOW EVENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SCA
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL LEGS...AND FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS/SURF: HIGH RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. SURF HEIGHTS 4 TO 6 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  62  54  67 /  40 100 100  50
SSI  60  64  60  66 /  30 100 100  60
JAX  61  73  60  67 /  30 100  90  50
SGJ  64  73  63  69 /  30 100  90  50
GNV  61  76  60  70 /  40 100  90  40
OCF  63  78  62  72 /  40  90  80  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-
     UNION.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
     APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA
     TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/TRABERT/MCALLISTER







000
FXUS62 KMFL 171750
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND OF THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES...WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE STEADILY MARCHING WESTWARD TOWARD
KAPF. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM MIAMI TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND
SEAWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS A GULF LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO PALM BEACH. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT MIA INDICATED 1.8" PWS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WITH -12 C 500 MB TEMPS. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /  40  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  74  86 /  30  20  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  73  87 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           69  84  69  81 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171750
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND OF THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES...WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE STEADILY MARCHING WESTWARD TOWARD
KAPF. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM MIAMI TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND
SEAWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS A GULF LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO PALM BEACH. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT MIA INDICATED 1.8" PWS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WITH -12 C 500 MB TEMPS. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /  40  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  74  86 /  30  20  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  73  87 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           69  84  69  81 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171750
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND OF THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES...WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE STEADILY MARCHING WESTWARD TOWARD
KAPF. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM MIAMI TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND
SEAWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS A GULF LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO PALM BEACH. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT MIA INDICATED 1.8" PWS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WITH -12 C 500 MB TEMPS. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /  40  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  74  86 /  30  20  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  73  87 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           69  84  69  81 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171750
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND OF THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES...WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE STEADILY MARCHING WESTWARD TOWARD
KAPF. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM MIAMI TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND
SEAWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS A GULF LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO PALM BEACH. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT MIA INDICATED 1.8" PWS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WITH -12 C 500 MB TEMPS. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /  40  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  74  86 /  30  20  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  73  87 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           69  84  69  81 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 171426
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

MORNING UPDATE...
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NOW BEING ANALYZED AS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY APPROACHING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OKEECHOBEE...MARTIN...SAINT LUCIE...INDIAN RIVER
AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES WHERE THE AIR MASS WELL BE MORE MOIST
AND ANY BREAKS IN THE SKY COVER WOULD ENHANCE THE INSTABILITY.

MODEL TRENDS ARE INDICATING CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 JOULES PER
KILOGRAM (J/KG) FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AREA 12Z SOUNDINGS WERE
SHOWING 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE -12C TO -14C RANGE BUT THE MODELS
WERE SHOWING A LITTLE WARMING TO -10C TO 12C AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ADVECTS SLIGHT WARMER AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TAMPA AND
CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS WERE SHOWING A WARM LAYER/WEAK CAP BETWEEN
700 AND 600MB THAT COULD HINDER STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
AREA TO THE NORTH. ANY CELLS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS REACHING HIGH
ENOUGH TO TAP THE COOLER AIR COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS
SHOWING ONE AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST TO WEST OFF THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND INTO SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WITH AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS REMAIN FAIRLY PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN VERY GUNG HO IN LIFTING THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWARD TREND MAY BE STARTING AS ONE HEAVY RAINBAND SET UP EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SOUTHWARDS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF WIND
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER. THIS IS WHERE RADAR IS ALSO NOW
PICKING UP ON A RECENT UPSWING IN SHOWER COVERAGE.

LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK OVER
THE TREASURE COAST...BUT HRRR MODEL KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY MORE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE OR IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY BANDS MAY SET UP UNTIL THEY DO...BUT JUST AHEAD OF/ALONG WARM
FRONT WOULD BE THE BEST BET. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
FREQUENCY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.

FRONTAL REMNANTS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...ACCELERATING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARDS AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. HAVE TAPERED BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO 20 PERCENT NORTHERN INTERIOR TO 60 PERCENT OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE
COAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/MODEL FORECAST. COULD SEE A FEW
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...IT DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN
CHOPPY ON AREA LAKES.

COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
TIMING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED ANYWHERE FROM LOW 70S ALONG VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 IN BREVARD/TREASURE COAST. INTERIOR
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MILD OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR/AROUND 70S
COAST.

FRI-SUN...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS DECIDEDLY
SLOWER AND WETTER INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST BEFORE PINCHING OFF
INTO A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW INVOF THE FL/AL/GA TRI-STATE REGION FRI
NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOMEWHERE BTWN THE
FL/GA BORDER AND PENINSULAR NORTH FL ON SAT...EASING OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND DRIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST
ON SUN.

AT THE SURFACE...AVBL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED TOWARD A MORE
AGREEABLE (SLOWER) SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST. SFC FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP INTO A LOW AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NERN GOMEX FRI...WITH THE SFC AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY FRI NIGHT OVER NORTH FL. SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TAKE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL NWD ACROSS NORTH FL/GA...WHILE ECFL
BREAKS OUT INTO  THE WARM SECTOR OF THE GOMEX LOW. DEEP LAYER S-SW
FLOW WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF STRONGER STORMS TO REACH CTRL FL
FROM THE GOMEX (N/W OF I-4) AROUND SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE) AND
CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...AND
THEN LINGER OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST THROUGHOUT SAT. SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME STORMS GIVEN THE COLD H50 TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE H50 LOW OVHD.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY IN COOL/MOIST NRLY FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE GRUDGINGLY SLOW TO PUT SPACE
BETWEEN ITSELF AND FL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.

MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES IN TOWARD FL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND DRYING CONDS OUT. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASCD MOISTURE BAND TAKING A GLANCING SHOT AT NORTH
FL TUE-NIGHT INTO WED...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO INVOLVED IN DISSECTING
DAY 6-7 POPS GIVEN THE MORE SIG WX IN DAYS 1-3.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVING OVERTOP OF A RELATIVELY
COOLER LOW LEVEL AIR MASS BEING ADVECTED EAST TO WEST OFF THE
ATLANTIC WILL PRODUCE HIGHLY VARIABLE CLOUD BASES. NOT STRAYING VERY
FAR FROM THE CURRENT MVFR TAFS FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

MOIST AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL IT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST INSIDE VFR WITH PREVAILING
CIGS FL035-050. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS
FL020-030. ISOLD SHRA MOVING ONSHORE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KVRB
THROUGH 13Z...THEN BECOMING SCT-NMRS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH-NORTH AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW HEAVIER SHRA MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SITES. COULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS 113...114 AND 009 WERE RECORDING 4 TO
6 FEET NEARSHORE AND 7 FEET AT 20 MILES OFF THE COAST. BUOY 010 OUT
AT 120 MILES OFFSHORE WAS RECORDING 10 FOOT SEAS WITH A 7 FOOT
NORTHEAST SWELL. BOTH BUOYS 009 AND 010 WERE RECORDING NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. CURRENT AFTERNOON
FORECAST OF WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND 6 TO 9 FOOT SEAS LOOKS GOOD.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES CONTINUES.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST OVER WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...KEEPING
WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE INTO THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH WILL EASE GRADIENT FURTHER SOUTH...VEERING WINDS
MORE EAST IN THE 15-20KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING OFF THE TREASURE
COAST. WINDS WILL VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DROP TO 15-20KTS OVER ALL
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR WINDS/SEAS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7FT NEARSHORE/6-9FT OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE
ADVISORY FOR SEAS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...BUT SEAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE TO
INITIAL NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY.

FRI-MON...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WITH 15-20KT AND SEAS TO 6FT...POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER. COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN MARINE
THREATS INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK
BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE THE FL EAST
COAST AND PGRAD TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO 7-10FT OR A
LITTLE HIGHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS W-NW WINDS SHIFT TO N AND NNE
BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS SEAS MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  68  78  64 /  20  50  80  60
MCO  79  67  82  66 /  20  50  80  60
MLB  79  71  81  69 /  50  40  70  60
VRB  79  72  81  70 /  50  40  70  60
LEE  78  66  79  61 /  20  50  80  60
SFB  78  67  82  64 /  20  50  80  60
ORL  79  68  82  65 /  20  50  80  60
FPR  80  70  82  72 /  60  40  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 171351
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
951 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...

.UPDATE...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING...WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE. WITH STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ALONG WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL RETAIN THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTN. WITH COASTAL
CONVERGENCE INCREASING A BIT THIS AFTN...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
MIGRATE TO THE COAST. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 FOR SE GA/NE FL...AND MID/UPPER 70S FOR
NORTH-CENTRAL FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS OVC CONDITIONS OVER TERMINALS WITH
GNV ON THE FRINGE OF THE THICK CLOUD COVER. ALTHO HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE A BREAK IN LOWER CIGS LATE MORNING...THINK GNV IS ONLY
SITE WHERE THIS MAY HAPPEN. THUS WILL GO WITH PREVAILING MVFR CIGS
THAT WILL LIFT LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
OVER AREA SHOULD SUPPORT OCNL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS THRU THE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL THE WATERS TODAY...WITH SOME
DECREASE TNGT...ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO SUBSIDE TO CAUTION
NEARSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS/SURF: HIGH RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
SURF HEIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE...JUST UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  55  62  51 /  10  40  80  80
SSI  67  60  65  56 /  20  50  90  90
JAX  69  62  71  58 /  20  60  90  90
SGJ  72  66  72  61 /  20  60  90  90
GNV  75  62  73  58 /  10  70  90  90
OCF  77  63  75  61 /  20  70  90  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/TRABERT/MCALLISTER







000
FXUS62 KMFL 171341
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
941 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM MIAMI TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND
SEAWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS A GULF LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO PALM BEACH. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT MIA INDICATED 1.8" PWS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WITH -12 C 500 MB TEMPS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  60  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  60  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  60  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 171341
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
941 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM MIAMI TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND
SEAWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS A GULF LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO PALM BEACH. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT MIA INDICATED 1.8" PWS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WITH -12 C 500 MB TEMPS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  60  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  60  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  60  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KKEY 171337
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
940 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 900
AM...CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A DEEP LOW AMPLITUDE MIDDLE AND
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS...NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE KEYS. A PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...AT THE END OF A VERY NARROW YET SHARP TROUGH AXIS
THAT IS IDENTIFIABLE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE PECOS VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST MARINE AND LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS
OVERLAID ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 900 AM...DETAIL A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM LOW
PRESSURE NEAR WESTERN WISCONSIN. A 1040 MB PLUS UNSEASONABLY COLD
HIGH IS PARKED OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...BUT LOCALLY...A SURFACE
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO ACROSS
THE KEYS. THE 12Z SOUNDING WAS RATHER MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE MOSTLY EAST FLOW FROM OFF THE
SURFACE UP TO 850 MB...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERE AND COLUMNAR PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT 1.74 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. RADAR DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND
EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

.FORECASTS...REST OF TODAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AS COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND
THIS EVENING...CONTINUING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LACK OF A
TRIGGERING MECHANISM WILL KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE MESOSCALE FORCING
WILL BE CONDUCIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MB...ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO
BETWEEN NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS CLOUD LINES WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE REASONS FOR THIS
ARE AS FOLLOWS: THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE/LOWER LEVEL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND STRONG MID TO LATE APRIL INSOLATION COMBINED WITH AMPLE
LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE (ILLUSTRATED BY GFS/ECMWF/MET
COLUMNAR PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AND 1.75 INCHES). THEREFORE...MAY PERFORM
A LATE MORNING UPDATE TO BOTH THE LAND AND IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING
NEARSHORE...BAY...AND HAWK CHANNEL WATERS TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
AND ADD THUNDER. NEED TO WAIT AND SEE IF THESE TRENDS UNFOLD GIVEN
THESE FACTORS. IF THE BACKING DOES NOT OCCUR...WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES FOR WINDS AND
SEAS...HOWEVER...GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES WILL BACK FROM EAST TO
NORTHEAST TO EAST ACROSS FLORIDA BAY...THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS
NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...AND HAWK CHANNEL....WITH
MODERATE BREEZES CONTINUING ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN
NEARSHORE CUMULUS CLOUD LINES...SO MARINERS SHOULD TAKE NOTE FOR
POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LIGHTNING.

THEREAFTER...LOCAL BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS WILL
FRESHEN THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN WILL MOVE GRADUALLY
EASTWARD OVER NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...EMERGING OVER THE WESTERN
NORTH ATLANTIC FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY BEFORE 15Z THEN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS....DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS......FJ/BWC
DATA COLLECTION........CLR

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 171314
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Heavy Rain Likely on Friday with Widespread Flooding Possible...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 12z KTAE sounding this morning reveals that a dry airmass
remains in place, although some increase in mid-level moisture was
noted compared to the previous sounding. Overall, it should be
mainly dry today with increasing clouds ahead of an approaching
Gulf low. Isolated light showers could develop towards the end of
the day close to the coast. Only made a few minor changes to the
PoPs from the previous forecast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Friday] MVFR ceilings will overspread the aerodrome
from south to north and remain in place for most of the day.
Exceptions include VFR ceilings AOB 4 kft at DHN and ABY during
the afternoon and early evening hours. IFR will set in with the
commencement of a steady rain which will overspread the region
from southwest to northeast.

&&

.Prev Discussion [430 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...

The entire short range forecast will revolve around a Gulf low
forecast to bring heavy rain and flooding throughout the Tri-State
region. The good news from a forecast standpoint is that models
are coming into a better consensus regarding the track and
intensity of the low; the bad news is that our confidence is
increasing that widespread heavy rains will overspread our local
area, further aggravating ongoing river flooding with potentially
significant impacts.

By tonight, an elongated southern stream +PV anomaly will have
merged with a northern stream anomaly, consolidated and
strengthened across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. As this feature moves over an enhanced low-level
baroclinic zone across the northeast Gulf, surface cyclogenesis
will begin. By early Friday morning, a closed circulation will
have formed just south of New Orleans, with a large stratiform
rain shield spreading across the northern Gulf. As the surface low
intensifies under the large area of stratiform rain, so too will
the upper level anomaly, though it will begin to cutoff from the
northern stream flow as -PV advection occurs aloft atop the large
rain shield. As the upper anomaly strengthens and cuts-off through
the first part of the day Friday, the forward propagation of the
surface low will slow, with the system becoming more vertically
stacked by Friday night. Luckily, another southern stream anomaly
will be propagating eastward into the western Gulf overnight
Friday, keeping a rather steady west wind aloft and allowing the
system across the Southeast to gradually drift away from land into
the western Atlantic by mid-morning Saturday.

A very moist maritime tropical airmass will be in place across the
Tri-State region on Friday with PWAT values nearing 2 inches
across north Florida. That is approaching +3 standard deviations
above the norm. Further, synoptic ascent will be maximized locally
with the proximity of the surface low and the deep layer ascent
provided by the split flow regime. This will result in widespread
heavy rainfall nearly all day on Friday. At this time it appears
as though 3 inches of rain will be common across southeast
Alabama, south Georgia, and north Florida. With average amounts
that high, confidence is increasing that isolated locations could
pick up anywhere between 3-6 inches. That being said, this
rainfall will likely fall over an extended period of time
resulting in, for the most part, slow water rises. For that
reason, have opted for a more general Flood Watch as opposed to a
Flash Flood Watch. However, the flash flooding potential is non-
zero and will be highest near rivers currently running at high
levels and in our more urban locations.

Severe weather is not anticipated with this system, though a few
thunderstorms may be possible across the extreme southeast Big
Bend of Florida on Friday afternoon.

One last thing to mention is that afternoon "highs" will be quite
low across most areas on Friday with prolonged rain and
cloudiness. Portions of south Georgia and southeast Alabama will
struggle to reach 60 degrees while most other locations will top
out in the middle 60s.

By Friday night, the heavy rain threat will have diminished,
though light showers will continue on the back side of the
departing low pressure until it has moved far enough east. Most
areas should be rain free by Saturday afternoon, possibly Saturday
evening closer to the Suwannee River Valley.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

By Sunday, slight ridging will begin to settle in the area allowing
for a break from precipitation.  The next chance of rain occurs
Tuesday when the flow will become more zonal and a shortwave to the
north of our area will bring a slight chance of rain and isolated
thunderstorms to the northern counties.  Throughout the entire period,
temperatures will be near climatology with highs in the lower 80s,
and lows in the upper 50s.


.Marine...

Advisory level conditions will continue through this evening for
the northern Gulf at the base of strong high pressure stretching
down the eastern U.S. coastline. Late tonight a strong surface low
will near our waters and may bring gale conditions through Friday
for waters west of Apalachicola. To the east Advisory conditions
will likely prevail through the passage of the low pressure. The
possible gale conditions will subside by Friday night, with
advisory conditions diminishing by Saturday evening.


.Fire Weather...

Low level moisture will quickly increase across the region with a
wetting rain expected across the entire region from late tonight
through Friday night. Drier and breezy conditions will then arrive
for most of the weekend. However, it does not appear that RH will
get low enough to be concerned about red flag criteria, especially
with the wet fuels.


.Hydrology...

Heavy rains across the FL Panhandle on Tuesday resulted in sharp
rises on the Chipola River where the Altha gage crested about 2 ft
above moderate flood stage. Only minor rises occurred on the
Choctawhatchee, Apalachicola and Ochlockonee Rivers. Most of
the area rivers have crested and are falling slowly, but steadily.
More heavy rain is expected Friday. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches are
possible with 2 to 4 inches possible in the Florida Big Bend region.
Isolated higher totals are possible. This will reverse the
aforementioned recessions and likely return some rivers to flood
that had dropped below in the interim. Also, stages continue to
steadily rise on the Suwannee River and flooding is expected early
next work week.

As rain rates should be more gradual with this system than the last,
and with the above rainfall totals expected to fall over 12-24
hours, the flooding threat with this next round of rain should be of
the areal/river variety. The flash flooding threat should be lower.
In other words, areas of existing high water or flooding may
worsen... and areas of high water could also develop in places like
fields or low-lying areas. River flooding will also be possible,
particularly in rivers around the Florida Big Bend and Apalachee Bay
region.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below):

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  56  65  52  70 /  10  90 100  60  30
Panama City   72  57  65  55  73 /  10  90 100  40  10
Dothan        71  52  60  51  73 /   0  90 100  50  30
Albany        70  52  59  50  68 /   0  80 100  60  30
Valdosta      72  56  66  52  65 /   0  70 100  60  30
Cross City    75  62  73  59  69 /  10  70  90  50  20
Apalachicola  70  61  67  55  71 /  20  90 100  40  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS/HELLER
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 171306
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
906 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE RIDGED DOWN THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE A WARM FRONT/MOISTURE
BOUNDARY STRETCHED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OFF SE FL AND SOUTH
OF THE FL KEYS. THE HIGH MAINTAINS ROBUST AND AT TIMES GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. THE FRONT/BOUNDARY CREEPS NORTH WITH
CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF IT AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SPREADING NORTH
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECASTS SEEM ON TRACK WITH
NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
17/12Z TO 18/12Z: PREVAILING BKN-OVC VFR CIGS WITH NE TO E-NE
WINDS...BECOMING GUSTY LATE MORNING AND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT/MOISTURE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN VCSH
IN THE AFTERNOON. CAN NOT RULE OUT LIMITED MVFR TSRA BUT WILL
LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
CAUTION HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE ON SOME OF THE WATERS WITH AN
ADVISORY ON THE TWO NORTHERN MOST SECTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS
THE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE ADJUSTED SOME AND THE ADVISORY
LOWERED TO CAUTION ON THE NEXT ISSUANCE...AROUND 10 AM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  68  81  66 /  60  30  70  50
FMY  85  70  85  69 /  70  30  70  50
GIF  81  67  83  65 /  50  20  80  60
SRQ  82  69  82  68 /  60  30  70  50
BKV  80  65  82  63 /  40  40  80  60
SPG  81  69  81  68 /  60  30  70  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION...74/WYNN









000
FXUS62 KMFL 171142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  70  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  70  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  70  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
 FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 171142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  70  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  70  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  70  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
 FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 171142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  70  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  70  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  70  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
 FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 171142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  70  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  70  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  70  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
 FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KKEY 171130 CCA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
730 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY BEFORE 15Z THEN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...FJ

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST

...CORRECTED DATE...













000
FXUS62 KKEY 171129 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
730 AM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
BRIEF MVFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE MAINLY BEFORE 15Z THEN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...FJ

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST












000
FXUS62 KMFL 171106
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  70  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  70  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  70  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KJAX 170913
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
513 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING UPPER SYSTEM OVER WRN GULF OF MEXICO. ONSHORE FLOW
MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO IMMEDIATE COAST BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WILL HAVE LOW POPS ALONG COAST AND OFFSHORE TODAY...DRY ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE IN PLACE...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS NEAR COAST...AND WILL MAINTAIN LAKE WIND ADVISORY GENERALLY
FOR AREAS E OF I-95. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR
COAST AND SCTRL GA TO MID 70S NCTRL FL.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUDINESS INCREASES AS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. SHOULD SEE PRECIP SHIELD SPREAD EASTWARD FROM NE GULF
OF MEX TOWARD 12Z FRI. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S SCTRL GA
TO MID 60S NE FL COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...00Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE CUTS
OFF FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM AS IT MIGRATES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENT FLOW OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...LIKELY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
AND A POSSIBLE MCS OVER THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO BY EARLY FRI. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED SOUTHEAST OF
COASTAL LOUISIANA...AND THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE FL BIG BEND ON FRIDAY EVENING. 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS REMAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE 00Z
ECMWF/CMC...AND THE 00Z NAM BRINGS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL
PENINSULA. WE EXPECT A SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED ELEVATED CONVECTION TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. STRONG
COASTAL CONVERGENCE MAY ALSO ENHANCE BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT MAY
POTENTIALLY TRAIN INTO THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. GIVEN SATURATED CONDITIONS...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ON
FRI AND ESPECIALLY FRI NIGHT IS INCREASING FOR OUR FL COUNTIES AND
COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED
MUCH OF NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH WIDESPREAD
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES EXPECTED. WE WILL LIKELY
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST FL AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST
GA IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BECOME A CONCERN OVER OUR FL COUNTIES
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL ON FRI
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SURGE INTO THE MID 70S.
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST
SURFACE FLOW PREVAILS OVER OUR FL COUNTIES...AND A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW MIGRATES INTO THE FL BIG BEND. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. LOWS FRI
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA...TO NEAR 60 ELSEWHERE.

UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL PHASE OVER OUR REGION
EARLY ON SATURDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN COASTAL LOCATIONS...AND THE AREAL FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY PEAK LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. LINGERING
AFTERNOON RAINS AND ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 60S
ALMOST REGION-WIDE...WHICH IS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL
CLIMO. RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE COULD LINGER INTO EARLY
SUN FOR COASTAL SECTIONS. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE 50S
INLAND...RANGING TO NEAR 60 AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
STACKED CYCLONE ONLY SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
ON EASTER SUN...MAINTAINING A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION
DESPITE DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS INLAND MAY
CLIMB INTO THE LOW/MID 70S...BUT COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO
REACH 70. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL THEN PREVAIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK TOWARDS CLIMO BY TUES. ZONAL
FLOW MAY BRING A WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT ACROSS GA TOWARDS
MIDWEEK...AND LEFT ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL POPS IN FOR WED IN
SOUTHEAST GA.

&&

.AVIATION...CIG FORECAST A BIT CHALLENGING WITH AREAS OF BKN020
OVER LAND...WITH HIGHER CIGS OFF COAST.  HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A BREAK IN LOWER CIGS LATE MORNING THRU MID AFTN...WITH INCREASE
IN CIGS BKN020-030 LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SHOWED THIS TREND
IN LATEST TAFS.  HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE OVER AREA SHOULD SUPPORT
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20-25KTS THRU THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING IN THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...AND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR GALE
FORCE AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE TODAY...AS SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 7-9 FEET OFFSHORE. ONLY A BRIEF LULL IS EXPECTED IN
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS TONIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY STATUS IN THE GEORGIA WATERS AND POSSIBLY THE
NORTHEAST FL WATERS ON FRI AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SLOWLY APPROACHES OUR REGION. AS THIS
LOW MOVES OVER THE FL WATERS...NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRI NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SAT AS WINDS TRANSITION FROM
NE TO NORTHERLY. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS ON SUNDAY...AND A LONG FETCH OF NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL RESULT IN SEAS OFFSHORE
PEAKING AT 8-11 FEET ON SUN. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY OFFSHORE BEFORE
WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TUES.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW/LONG NORTHEAST
FETCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  55  62  51 /  10  40  80  80
SSI  67  60  65  56 /  20  50  90  90
JAX  71  62  71  58 /  20  60  90  90
SGJ  71  66  72  61 /  20  60  90  90
GNV  75  62  73  58 /  10  70  90  90
OCF  77  63  75  61 /  20  70  90  90

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-FLAGLER-
     NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
     COASTAL GLYNN.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

WOLF/NELSON








000
FXUS62 KMLB 170843
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WET THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...

...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

TODAY-TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL DRY AIRMASS REMAIN FAIRLY PERVASIVE
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

MODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN VERY GUNG HO IN LIFTING THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/ENHANCED MOISTURE BACK NORTH...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
NORTHWARD TREND MAY BE STARTING AS ONE HEAVY RAINBAND SET UP EARLIER
THIS EVENING ACROSS BROWARD COUNTY THAT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
BREVARD/OSCEOLA COUNTIES SOUTHWARDS COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF WIND
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER. THIS IS WHERE RADAR IS ALSO NOW
PICKING UP ON A RECENT UPSWING IN SHOWER COVERAGE.

LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP AROUND DAYBREAK OVER
THE TREASURE COAST...BUT HRRR MODEL KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY MORE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATER. ITS TOUGH TO SAY WHERE OR IF ANY LOCALLY
HEAVY BANDS MAY SET UP UNTIL THEY DO...BUT JUST AHEAD OF/ALONG WARM
FRONT WOULD BE THE BEST BET. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER
FREQUENCY TOWARDS DAYBREAK ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST.

FRONTAL REMNANTS AND BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MOVE BACK TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY...ACCELERATING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS EASTWARDS AND
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GULF. HAVE TAPERED BACK RAIN CHANCES
TO 20 PERCENT NORTHERN INTERIOR TO 60 PERCENT OKEECHOBEE/TREASURE
COAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/MODEL FORECAST. COULD SEE A FEW
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST TODAY...BEFORE THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION LATER TONIGHT.

THOUGH IT WILL BE BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...IT DOESN`T APPEAR
THAT SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL BE QUITE AS HIGH AS YESTERDAY SO HAVE NOT
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY. HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL STILL REMAIN
CHOPPY ON AREA LAKES.

COASTAL HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
TIMING...BUT OVERALL EXPECTED ANYWHERE FROM LOW 70S ALONG VOLUSIA
COAST TO UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 IN BREVARD/TREASURE COAST. INTERIOR
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. MILD OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES
MORE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S INTERIOR/AROUND 70S
COAST.

FRI-SUN...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS DECIDEDLY
SLOWER AND WETTER INTO SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST BEFORE PINCHING OFF
INTO A CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW INVOF THE FL/AL/GA TRI-STATE REGION FRI
NIGHT. THE CLOSED LOW WILL THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EAST SOMEWHERE BTWN THE
FL/GA BORDER AND PENINSULAR NORTH FL ON SAT...EASING OFFSHORE SAT
NIGHT AND DRIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE AND AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST
ON SUN.

AT THE SURFACE...AVBL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED TOWARD A MORE
AGREEABLE (SLOWER) SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST. SFC FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP INTO A LOW AND TRACKS ACROSS THE
NERN GOMEX FRI...WITH THE SFC AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED BY FRI NIGHT OVER NORTH FL. SFC WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE MORNING...WHICH SHOULD TAKE
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL NWD ACROSS NORTH FL/GA...WHILE ECFL
BREAKS OUT INTO  THE WARM SECTOR OF THE GOMEX LOW. DEEP LAYER S-SW
FLOW WITH PWATS AROUND 1.75" WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF STRONGER STORMS TO REACH CTRL FL
FROM THE GOMEX (N/W OF I-4) AROUND SUNSET (GIVE OR TAKE) AND
CONTINUE TO DROP SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SFC LOW WILL BE VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FRI NIGHT...AND
THEN LINGER OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST THROUGHOUT SAT. SUFFICIENT
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS...AND EVEN
SOME STORMS GIVEN THE COLD H50 TEMPS UNDERNEATH THE H50 LOW OVHD.
EXPECT LINGERING SHOWERS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY IN COOL/MOIST NRLY FLOW
ON BACK SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL BE GRUDGINGLY SLOW TO PUT SPACE
BETWEEN ITSELF AND FL. COVERAGE/INTENSITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW.

MON-WED...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY SETTLES IN TOWARD FL EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND DRYING CONDS OUT. THERE ARE SOME SUGGESTIONS OF A WEAK
FRONTAL TROUGH AND ASCD MOISTURE BAND TAKING A GLANCING SHOT AT NORTH
FL TUE-NIGHT INTO WED...BUT WILL NOT GET TOO INVOLVED IN DISSECTING
DAY 6-7 POPS GIVEN THE MORE SIG WX IN DAYS 1-3.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH OVERALL IT
APPEARS MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN JUST INSIDE VFR WITH PREVAILING
CIGS FL035-050. COASTAL SITES WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE MVFR CIGS
FL020-030. ISOLD SHRA MOVING ONSHORE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF KVRB
THROUGH 13Z...THEN BECOMING SCT-NMRS. COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTH-NORTH AS OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY. A FEW HEAVIER SHRA MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS MAINLY
ALONG COASTAL SITES. COULD SEE PREVAILING IFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF REGION.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL REMAIN STRONGEST OVER WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET...KEEPING
WINDS IN THE 20-25KT RANGE INTO THIS EVENING. WARM FRONT LIFTING
BACK TO THE NORTH WILL EASE GRADIENT FURTHER SOUTH...VEERING WINDS
MORE EAST IN THE 15-20KT RANGE BY LATE MORNING OFF THE TREASURE
COAST. WINDS WILL VEER EAST-SOUTHEAST AND DROP TO 15-20KTS OVER ALL
THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE
REGION.

WILL KEEP ADVISORY FOR WINDS/SEAS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS 5-7FT NEARSHORE/6-9FT OFFSHORE. WILL HAVE
ADVISORY FOR SEAS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER...BUT SEAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO NORTHERN SECTIONS DUE TO
INITIAL NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY.

FRI-MON...A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WINDS/SEAS IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKING AT
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WITH 15-20KT AND SEAS TO 6FT...POSSIBLY A BIT
HIGHER. COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN MARINE
THREATS INTO SATURDAY. SYNOPTIC GRADIENT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK
BACK UP SAT AFTERNOON AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE THE FL EAST
COAST AND PGRAD TIGHTENS. SEAS WILL RAMP BACK UP TO 7-10FT OR A
LITTLE HIGHER SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN AS W-NW WINDS SHIFT TO N AND NNE
BEHIND THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS SEAS MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  68  78  64 /  20  50  80  60
MCO  79  67  82  66 /  20  50  80  60
MLB  79  71  81  69 /  50  40  70  60
VRB  79  72  81  70 /  50  40  70  60
LEE  78  66  79  61 /  20  50  80  60
SFB  78  67  82  64 /  20  50  80  60
ORL  79  68  82  65 /  20  50  80  60
FPR  80  70  82  72 /  60  40  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI






000
FXUS62 KTBW 170837
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
437 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. UPSTREAM A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO/COLORADO BORDER AND A
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO IS INDUCING WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH RADAR
IMAGERY SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MAIN SHORT TERM
CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND POPS...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4.

TODAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...KEEPING AN ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY KEEP THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY FOCUSING ALONG ZONE
OF SPEED CONVERGENCE AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES QUICKLY
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS MORNING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BROKEN LOW CLOUD COVER DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DEVELOPING
RETURNS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH
THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD...BUT MOST LOCALES SHOULD
REMAIN RAIN FREE. THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING IN COMBINATION
WITH THE SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 4. GIVEN THE COLD H5 TEMPS AROUND -11/-12C...CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THIS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. IF
SOME DECENT BREAKS OPEN UP THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH THE MAIN RISKS BEING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES...THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES...AND IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

TONIGHT...
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH A LULL IN
THE RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z FRIDAY.
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WILL NEED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST HOWEVER DUE TO INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE
BEGINNING OF SOME DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AS PHASING
NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AFTER 09Z FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY ON RADAR
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE NATURE COAST AS FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTH...AND IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.MID TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
DEVELOPING GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE
AND RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY. AT 12Z FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP AS A 500MB TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...IT WILL MOVE INTO THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 18Z
FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING CLOSER TO
ONE ANOTHER IN THE LOW TRACK...THOUGH THE 00Z GFS IS MOVING THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF.
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...THE SOLUTIONS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO
INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN MANY FORECAST ELEMENTS INCLUDING POPS FOR THE
MID TERM PERIOD.

CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK RIGHT NOW...THOUGH LOCALIZED SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOCUSES ON THIS IN
THEIR DAY 2 AND 3 OUTLOOKS. IT IS NOTABLE THAT DIFFERENT GUIDANCE
PACKAGES ARE PRODUCING RESPECTABLE 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY OF NEARLY 100 M2/S2...WITH THE 00Z NAM BEING THE
OUTLIER WITH SOME VALUES AS HIGH AS 200 M2/S2. WHILE THE INSTABILITY
FROM DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE GONE BY THE TIME THE WIND SHEAR
PEAKS...THE FORECAST OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE PUSHING EAST ON MONDAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE AND 500 MB DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
AND CLOUD COVER SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...MAINLY
OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...ONLY TO BE THWARTED BY A SECONDARY
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM FIZZLES OUT TO END THE EXTENDED
AS IT MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONAL...MAINLY DUE TO A LACK OF
DRASTIC CHANGES BETWEEN AIR MASSES. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR AIR MASS MODIFICATION BY THE WARMING
GULF WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. SHOULD SEE SOME SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO SUB VFR CIGS/VSBYS. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH AND
LET LATER SHIFTS ADJUST AS TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR. ANY SHRA/TSRA
SHOULD END QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING
AND AS A RESULT...WILL NEED EXERCISE CAUTION OR ADVISORY HEADLINES
FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY. ANOTHER
DECENT EASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A
NEED FOR EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE AREA. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
FRIDAY AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK
INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
AS A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RAIN FREE WEATHER RETURNING TO THE AREA. HUMIDITY LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  81  68  81  66 /  60  30  70  50
FMY  85  70  85  69 /  70  30  70  50
GIF  81  67  83  65 /  50  20  80  60
SRQ  82  69  82  68 /  60  30  70  50
BKV  80  65  82  63 /  40  40  80  60
SPG  81  69  81  68 /  60  30  70  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KKEY 170832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
432 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER SUMMARY -- A MODERATE EASTERLY WIND FLOW PREVAILS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ON AND OFF OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST
ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE 76-78F RANGE...WITH
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. THE AIR MASS IS A LOW-END
MARITIME TROPICAL VARIETY WITH THE FLORIDA KEYS LOCATED BENEATH THE
FAR SOUTHERN FLANK OF A SPRAWLING CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM MAINE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALOFT...A BROAD CYCLONIC
FLOW REGIME HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OVER OLD MEXICO AND MOST OF THE
GULF BASIN. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE
MOISTURE CHANNEL ANIMATIONS...NOW APPROACHING WEST TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE OF INTEREST TO THE LOCAL WEATHER EVOLUTION DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS OR SO.

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS -- THE WIND FORECAST WILL CONTAIN A HIGHER NUMBER
OF CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT
72 HOURS. IN ADDITION...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.
THE REASON HAS TO DO WITH UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH HOW THE MEAN
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA IS GOING TO RESPOND TO AN
APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. SOLUTIONS FROM VARIOUS WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS STILL EXHIBIT A CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF VARIATION
WITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY...DEPTH...AND EVOLUTION OF THE SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH...ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT SOME FORM OF LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER NORTH FLORIDA.

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ALSO EXISTS REGARDING POTENTIAL
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION EXISTS EVEN RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS A QUESTION MARK BOTH AT HIGH AND
LOW ALTITUDES. FOR NOW...WE ARE KEEPING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST
PERIODS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS A
30 PERCENT POP AND ISOLATED THUNDER. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY...WITH DRY NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
SCOURING OUT THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WE HAVE REDUCED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME TO NIL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY -- A GENERALLY FAIR AND FINE WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY.
&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS VALID FOR THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND FIVE FATHOMS HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WILL EXTEND FROM NEW ENGLAND TO FLORIDA
TODAY. LOCAL BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS WILL FRESHEN
THIS EVENING AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THEN WILL MOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD OVER
NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...EMERGING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH WIND DIRECTION AND WIND SPEED ACROSS KEYS COASTAL
WATERS LIKELY WILL UNDERGO SEVERAL CHANGES DURING THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME. A CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BUILD
SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY
NEAR 10 KNOTS. SCATTERED CUMULUS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
AROUND 2 KFT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  76  84  76 / 20 20 20 30
MARATHON  87  76  87  76 / 20 20 20 30
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 170830
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
430 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Heavy Rain Likely on Friday with Widespread Flooding Possible...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Water vapor imagery and model analysis indicate a broad upper level
trough over much of the CONUS this morning with a short wave moving
from the Southern Rockies out into the Southern Plains. Surface
analysis shows high pressure centered over New England ridging
southwestward to the northern Gulf of Mexico with a front stalled
over the southeastern Gulf and Yucatan Peninsula. Satellite imagery
indicates low clouds encroaching on the forecast area from the east
and south. This trend is forecast to continue through the day as
isentropic ascent on the 295-300K surfaces steadily increases and
pressure falls commence in the central Gulf as the upstream short
wave approaches form the northwest. PoPs will be confined to our FL
zones this afternoon and will mainly be in the slight chance
category. Any precipitation that falls will be in the form of light
stratiform rain. Despite the increase in cloud cover, temps will be
a few degrees warmer than yesterday with highs ranging from the
upper 60s north to mid 70s southeast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday Night]...

The entire short range forecast will revolve around a Gulf low
forecast to bring heavy rain and flooding throughout the Tri-State
region. The good news from a forecast standpoint is that models
are coming into a better consensus regarding the track and
intensity of the low; the bad news is that our confidence is
increasing that widespread heavy rains will overspread our local
area, further aggravating ongoing river flooding with potentially
significant impacts.

By tonight, an elongated southern stream +PV anomaly will have
merged with a northern stream anomaly, consolidated and
strengthened across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi
Valley. As this feature moves over an enhanced low-level
baroclinic zone across the northeast Gulf, surface cyclogenesis
will begin. By early Friday morning, a closed circulation will
have formed just south of New Orleans, with a large stratiform
rain shield spreading across the northern Gulf. As the surface low
intensifies under the large area of stratiform rain, so too will
the upper level anomaly, though it will begin to cutoff from the
northern stream flow as -PV advection occurs aloft atop the large
rain shield. As the upper anomaly strengthens and cuts-off through
the first part of the day Friday, the forward propagation of the
surface low will slow, with the system becoming more vertically
stacked by Friday night. Luckily, another southern stream anomaly
will be propagating eastward into the western Gulf overnight
Friday, keeping a rather steady west wind aloft and allowing the
system across the Southeast to gradually drift away from land into
the western Atlantic by mid-morning Saturday.

A very moist maritime tropical airmass will be in place across the
Tri-State region on Friday with PWAT values nearing 2 inches
across north Florida. That is approaching +3 standard deviations
above the norm. Further, synoptic ascent will be maximized locally
with the proximity of the surface low and the deep layer ascent
provided by the split flow regime. This will result in widespread
heavy rainfall nearly all day on Friday. At this time it appears
as though 3 inches of rain will be common across southeast
Alabama, south Georgia, and north Florida. With average amounts
that high, confidence is increasing that isolated locations could
pick up anywhere between 3-6 inches. That being said, this
rainfall will likely fall over an extended period of time
resulting in, for the most part, slow water rises. For that
reason, have opted for a more general Flood Watch as opposed to a
Flash Flood Watch. However, the flash flooding potential is non-
zero and will be highest near rivers currently running at high
levels and in our more urban locations.

Severe weather is not anticipated with this system, though a few
thunderstorms may be possible across the extreme southeast Big
Bend of Florida on Friday afternoon.

One last thing to mention is that afternoon "highs" will be quite
low across most areas on Friday with prolonged rain and
cloudiness. Portions of south Georgia and southeast Alabama will
struggle to reach 60 degrees while most other locations will top
out in the middle 60s.

By Friday night, the heavy rain threat will have diminished,
though light showers will continue on the back side of the
departing low pressure until it has moved far enough east. Most
areas should be rain free by Saturday afternoon, possibly Saturday
evening closer to the Suwannee River Valley.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

By Sunday, slight ridging will begin to settle in the area allowing
for a break from precipitation.  The next chance of rain occurs
Tuesday when the flow will become more zonal and a shortwave to the
north of our area will bring a slight chance of rain and isolated
thunderstorms to the northern counties.  Throughout the entire period,
temperatures will be near climatology with highs in the lower 80s,
and lows in the upper 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday]

MVFR ceilings will overspread the aerodrome from southeast to
northwest during the 08-12z time frame and then remain in place
for the remainder of the period. Exceptions include VFR ceilings
AOB 4 kft at DHN and ABY during the afternoon and early evening
hours and IFR possibly setting in toward the end of the period at
ECP with the commencement of a steady rain.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level conditions will continue through this evening for
the northern Gulf at the base of strong high pressure stretching
down the eastern U.S. coastline. Late tonight a strong surface low
will near our waters and may bring gale conditions through Friday
for waters west of Apalachicola. To the east Advisory conditions
will likely prevail through the passage of the low pressure. The
possible gale conditions will subside by Friday night, with
advisory conditions diminishing by Saturday evening.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Low level moisture will quickly increase across the region with a
wetting rain expected across the entire region from late tonight
through Friday night. Drier and breezy conditions will then arrive
for most of the weekend. However, it does not appear that RH will
get low enough to be concerned about red flag criteria, especially
with the wet fuels.

&&

.Hydrology...

Heavy rains across the FL Panhandle on Tuesday resulted in sharp
rises on the Chipola River where the Altha gage crested about 2 ft
above moderate flood stage. Only minor rises occurred on the
Choctawhatchee, Apalachicola and Ochlockonee Rivers. Most of
the area rivers have crested and are falling slowly, but steadily.
More heavy rain is expected Friday. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches are
possible with 2 to 4 inches possible in the Florida Big Bend region.
Isolated higher totals are possible. This will reverse the
aforementioned recessions and likely return some rivers to flood
that had dropped below in the interim. Also, stages continue to
steadily rise on the Suwannee River and flooding is expected early
next work week.

As rain rates should be more gradual with this system than the last,
and with the above rainfall totals expected to fall over 12-24
hours, the flooding threat with this next round of rain should be of
the areal/river variety. The flash flooding threat should be lower.
In other words, areas of existing high water or flooding may
worsen... and areas of high water could also develop in places like
fields or low-lying areas. River flooding will also be possible,
particularly in rivers around the Florida Big Bend and Apalachee Bay
region.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below):

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  56  65  52  70 /  20  90 100  60  30
Panama City   72  57  65  55  73 /  20  90 100  40  10
Dothan        71  52  60  51  73 /  10  90 100  50  30
Albany        70  52  59  50  68 /  10  80 100  60  30
Valdosta      72  56  66  52  65 /  10  70 100  60  30
Cross City    75  62  73  59  69 /  20  70  90  50  20
Apalachicola  70  61  67  55  71 /  30  90 100  40  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
     Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
     Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

GA...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-
     Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Flood Watch from late tonight through late Friday night for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS/HELLER
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...WOOL







000
FXUS62 KMFL 170744
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY...

...ANOTHER AROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND
THE FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND SO WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR NUMEROUS POPS
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND THE NAPLES AREA. THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE NAPLES AREA.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE
COLLIDE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE MORNING HWO
PACKAGE.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING PUSHING THE FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT. SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG
DURING THIS TIME...AS THE 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -10 TO -11C
ALONG WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG STORMS IN THE MORNING HWO FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR TO
THE AREA FOR EASTER SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR SATURDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THUNDER WORDING
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE GOING DRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EASTERN SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE
DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE SWINGING SLOWLY
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATE
SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 7 FEET OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE A SMALL NORTHEAST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM OF PALM BEACH WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING
BELOW 7 FEET ON FRIDAY.

THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL THEN BUILD TO AT LEAST 7 FEET LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE THE SEAS IN THE GULF
WATERS REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET DURING THIS TIME.

SO A SCA FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL BE
PUT UP TODAY AND MAYBE A SCEC FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  50  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  40  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  40  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 170744
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY...

...ANOTHER AROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND
THE FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND SO WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR NUMEROUS POPS
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND THE NAPLES AREA. THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE NAPLES AREA.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE
COLLIDE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE MORNING HWO
PACKAGE.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING PUSHING THE FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT. SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG
DURING THIS TIME...AS THE 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -10 TO -11C
ALONG WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG STORMS IN THE MORNING HWO FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR TO
THE AREA FOR EASTER SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR SATURDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THUNDER WORDING
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE GOING DRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EASTERN SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE
DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE SWINGING SLOWLY
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATE
SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 7 FEET OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE A SMALL NORTHEAST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM OF PALM BEACH WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING
BELOW 7 FEET ON FRIDAY.

THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL THEN BUILD TO AT LEAST 7 FEET LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE THE SEAS IN THE GULF
WATERS REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET DURING THIS TIME.

SO A SCA FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL BE
PUT UP TODAY AND MAYBE A SCEC FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  50  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  40  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  40  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 170744
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY...

...ANOTHER AROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND
THE FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND SO WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR NUMEROUS POPS
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND THE NAPLES AREA. THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE NAPLES AREA.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE
COLLIDE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE MORNING HWO
PACKAGE.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING PUSHING THE FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT. SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG
DURING THIS TIME...AS THE 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -10 TO -11C
ALONG WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG STORMS IN THE MORNING HWO FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR TO
THE AREA FOR EASTER SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR SATURDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THUNDER WORDING
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE GOING DRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EASTERN SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE
DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE SWINGING SLOWLY
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATE
SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 7 FEET OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE A SMALL NORTHEAST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM OF PALM BEACH WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING
BELOW 7 FEET ON FRIDAY.

THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL THEN BUILD TO AT LEAST 7 FEET LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE THE SEAS IN THE GULF
WATERS REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET DURING THIS TIME.

SO A SCA FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL BE
PUT UP TODAY AND MAYBE A SCEC FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  50  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  40  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  40  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 170744
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY...

...ANOTHER AROUND OF STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND
THE FRONT SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND SO WILL GO WITH
SCATTERED POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR NUMEROUS POPS
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND THE NAPLES AREA. THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE NAPLES AREA.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES AND LAKE BREEZE
COLLIDE. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE MORNING HWO
PACKAGE.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ON FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL OR
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
THE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING PUSHING THE FRONT BACK
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT. SO THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG
DURING THIS TIME...AS THE 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -10 TO -11C
ALONG WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE STRONG STORMS IN THE MORNING HWO FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER AIR TO
THE AREA FOR EASTER SUNDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS A LITTLE BIT FOR SATURDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THUNDER WORDING
FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BEFORE GOING DRY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EASTERN SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE
EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE
DRY WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE SWINGING SLOWLY
TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATE
SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS LATE SATURDAY.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 7 FEET OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE A SMALL NORTHEAST
SWELL WILL BUILD TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM OF PALM BEACH WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE FALLING
BELOW 7 FEET ON FRIDAY.

THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL THEN BUILD TO AT LEAST 7 FEET LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHILE THE SEAS IN THE GULF
WATERS REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET DURING THIS TIME.

SO A SCA FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL BE
PUT UP TODAY AND MAYBE A SCEC FOR THE GULF STREAM WATERS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  50  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  40  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  40  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 170538
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, SO
INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THEN. HOWEVER, IT`S TOO UNCERTAIN
TO DETERMINE IF ANY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE, DID NOT PLACE MORE THAN VCTS. WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT
OF THE E-NE AT 10-15 KT. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. UPDATED TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THROUGH THE NIGHT AREA WIDE.

AVIATION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, JUST TO THE SOUTH, WILL KEEP A LOW
CLOUD DECK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
IS A CHANCE THEY MAY GO LOWER THEN THE MVFR CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
BECOME IFR AT SOME SITES. BY TOMORROW, SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND CIGS SHOULD COME UP A LITTLE. BUT THEN, IN THE
AFTERNOON, THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE SHORT TERM COULD BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING HAS NOW
STALLED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH LATE TONIGHT
TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE MID
LATITUDES REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S., THIS WILL KEEP 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-11 TO -12C RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH IN THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR DAYTIME THURSDAY. THIS WILL
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES CONSIDERABLY FOR THURSDAY AND WILL BE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
THE AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL. DUE TO THE GENERAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW EXPECTED, THE EASTERN COASTAL REGION WILL HAVE
A NEGLIGIBLE CONVERGENT ZONE SO THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE INTERIOR
AND THE NAPLES AREA ESPECIALLY IF A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CAN
MATERIALIZE.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF COAST STATES ON FRIDAY AND SURFACE
PRESSURES LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AS A RESULT. THE
CONCERN IS THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL RUNS AS TO THE INTENSITY
OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST MANY RUNS SHOWING A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
EASTERN GULF BY FRIDAY WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM BEGAN SHOWING
THIS SAME SOLUTION ON ITS 06Z-12Z RUNS ALTHOUGH IT SHOWS THE
DEEPEST PLUME OF MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN RELUCTANT
TO SHOW SUCH AN INTENSE SYSTEM BUT THE 12Z RUN COMES CLOSER TO
THIS SOLUTION, ALBEIT FASTER AND WEAKER. IT NOW SHOWS THE LOW
CUTTING OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHICH WOULD
PUSH MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER EAST OF THE PENINSULA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A MUCH SLOWER EVOLUTION DUE TO ITS CUTTING THE LOW OFF
MUCH EARLIER AND FARTHER TO THE WEST. THEREFORE, IT KEEPS ACTIVE
WEATHER THROUGH ALL OF FRIDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE, IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE. THE EXACT TIMING OF ANY SUCH STORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THEIR INTENSITY WILL COME WITH LATER UPDATES AS THE
MODELS COME TO TERMS WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALSO REMAINS IN LIMBO DUE TO HOW FAST THE UPPER
SYSTEM EVOLVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING
IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DELAYS THE DRYING AND
STABILIZING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SO AGAIN WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES BEFORE A CONSENSUS
IS MADE.

MARINE...
THE WIND DIRECTION OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
HAS BECOME EASTERLY AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
CONTINUING TO SWING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR
LESS TODAY INTO FRIDAY.

THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL NORTHEAST SWELLS OVER THE PALM BEACH
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO THE SEAS IN THE PALM BEACH WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 7
FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 7 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. REST OF THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 7 FEET ALONG WITH THE GULF SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  82  71  85 /  40  60  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  83  74  85 /  30  50  50  20
MIAMI            74  83  73  86 /  30  50  50  20
NAPLES           69  82  70  86 /  40  60  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 170538
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. ISOLATED-SCATTERED TSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, SO
INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THEN. HOWEVER, IT`S TOO UNCERTAIN
TO DETERMINE IF ANY WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT A TERMINAL. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE, DID NOT PLACE MORE THAN VCTS. WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT
OF THE E-NE AT 10-15 KT. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 823 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD KEEP
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND. UPDATED TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
THROUGH THE NIGHT AREA WIDE.

AVIATION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, JUST TO THE SOUTH, WILL KEEP A LOW
CLOUD DECK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE
IS A CHANCE THEY MAY GO LOWER THEN THE MVFR CURRENTLY FORECAST AND
BECOME IFR AT SOME SITES. BY TOMORROW, SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND CIGS SHOULD COME UP A LITTLE. BUT THEN, IN THE
AFTERNOON, THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, WITH STRONG GUSTY
WINDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE SHORT TERM COULD BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST EVENING HAS NOW
STALLED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN BECOMES
MORE ZONAL WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING RAPIDLY TO THE
NORTHEAST. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH LATE TONIGHT
TO NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE MID
LATITUDES REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE ALONG WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S., THIS WILL KEEP 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
-11 TO -12C RANGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH IN THE WARM
SECTOR SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY FOR DAYTIME THURSDAY. THIS WILL
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES CONSIDERABLY FOR THURSDAY AND WILL BE
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR THUNDER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
PWAT INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE
THE AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL. DUE TO THE GENERAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW EXPECTED, THE EASTERN COASTAL REGION WILL HAVE
A NEGLIGIBLE CONVERGENT ZONE SO THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE INTERIOR
AND THE NAPLES AREA ESPECIALLY IF A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CAN
MATERIALIZE.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF COAST STATES ON FRIDAY AND SURFACE
PRESSURES LOWER IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AS A RESULT. THE
CONCERN IS THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL RUNS AS TO THE INTENSITY
OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE
PAST MANY RUNS SHOWING A CLOSED MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE
EASTERN GULF BY FRIDAY WITH A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM BEGAN SHOWING
THIS SAME SOLUTION ON ITS 06Z-12Z RUNS ALTHOUGH IT SHOWS THE
DEEPEST PLUME OF MOISTURE TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS BEEN RELUCTANT
TO SHOW SUCH AN INTENSE SYSTEM BUT THE 12Z RUN COMES CLOSER TO
THIS SOLUTION, ALBEIT FASTER AND WEAKER. IT NOW SHOWS THE LOW
CUTTING OFF LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHICH WOULD
PUSH MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER EAST OF THE PENINSULA WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS A MUCH SLOWER EVOLUTION DUE TO ITS CUTTING THE LOW OFF
MUCH EARLIER AND FARTHER TO THE WEST. THEREFORE, IT KEEPS ACTIVE
WEATHER THROUGH ALL OF FRIDAY NIGHT. AT ANY RATE, IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE. THE EXACT TIMING OF ANY SUCH STORMS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
ALONG WITH THEIR INTENSITY WILL COME WITH LATER UPDATES AS THE
MODELS COME TO TERMS WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD ALSO REMAINS IN LIMBO DUE TO HOW FAST THE UPPER
SYSTEM EVOLVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. THE GFS STILL WANTS TO BRING
IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BY LATE SATURDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DELAYS THE DRYING AND
STABILIZING UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND. SO AGAIN WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST CYCLES BEFORE A CONSENSUS
IS MADE.

MARINE...
THE WIND DIRECTION OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
HAS BECOME EASTERLY AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
CONTINUING TO SWING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY. THE WIND
SPEEDS OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR
LESS TODAY INTO FRIDAY.

THERE COULD BE SOME SMALL NORTHEAST SWELLS OVER THE PALM BEACH
WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. SO THE SEAS IN THE PALM BEACH WATERS SHOULD BUILD TO 7
FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 7 FEET
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. REST OF THE ATLANTIC SEAS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 7 FEET ALONG WITH THE GULF SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  82  71  85 /  40  60  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  83  74  85 /  30  50  50  20
MIAMI            74  83  73  86 /  30  50  50  20
NAPLES           69  82  70  86 /  40  60  50  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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