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000
FXUS62 KJAX 291827
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
227 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.Near Term /Now through Monday/...

Rest of This Afternoon...Northwest flow around the SW side of
tropical low has suppressed the Atlc Coast Sea Breeze by keeping
it pinned at the coast while widely scattered showers and storms
have developed along the Gulf Coast Sea Breeze front near the Big
Bend. Storm Motion is towards the SE around 10-15 mph and these
will mainly stay south of a Gainesville to Palm Coast line through
sunset. Not expecting any severe weather but some brief heavy
rainfall and gusty winds always possible. Max Temps have warmed
well into the upper 80s and lower 90s over inland areas and mid
80s along the coast.

Tonight...Becoming partly to mostly clear with dry conditions as
the dry northwest steering flow slowly weakens. Atmosphere still
too dry to support much in the way of any significant fog, and
lows are expected in the mid/upper 60s inland and lower 70s along
the coast.

Monday...Lingering low pressure trof will extend from the
Carolinas across NE FL/SE GA and atmosphere will moisten slightly
to help trigger widely scattered showers and storms over inland
areas with the best chances south of a line from St Augustine to
Gainesville as the Gulf Coast and Atlc Coast sea breeze fronts
meet over the middle St Johns River Basin. Max temps will continue
to heat up in the northwest flow and reach into the 90-95 degree
range over inland areas and upper 80s at the beaches, but the same
lingering drier airmass that will limit convection will also keep
the heat indices topping out in the mid/upper 90s range.

&&

.Short term.../Monday night through Wednesday/...

The remnants of Bonnie will linger Northeast of the region this
period. It is expected to be far enough North to allow the building
high to the East to provide a change in flow to a more Westerly and
Southwesterly direction. With this flow, moisture will increase
through the period. The increased moisture will help destabilize the
atmosphere, leading to diurnal convection initiating on the East
coast sea breeze, with these storms migrating inland through the
afternoon and evening.

Temperatures are expected to trend above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday night through Sunday/...

High pressure ridge will be East of the region through this
period, with a warm and Southerly flow continuing. With this
pattern, expect daily diurnal convection initiated along the
sea breeze. A front will move Southeast toward the region
over the weekend, which will increase convective potential.

Temperatures are expected to trend near to slightly above
normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conds through tonight as W/NW winds at 10-12 knots and gusty
weaken by sunset tonight. Low level airmass still too dry to
support any significant fog at the TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...

Gusty W/NW flow at 15-20 knots with seas of 3-6 ft will weaken
tonight as the offshore flow continues...then becomes weak enough
on Monday to allow for local sea breezes to develop and overall
flow to become southerly once again. The remainder of the week
will feature light winds/seas with local sea breezes along the
coast. Isolated thunderstorms possible at times.

RIP CURRENTS: Moderate risk will linger through Memorial Day as
swells/seas slowly subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  93  67  92 /  10  10  10  40
SSI  69  86  72  86 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  66  92  69  90 /   0  10  10  20
SGJ  69  89  72  89 /  10  20  20  10
GNV  66  93  69  91 /  10  20  20  40
OCF  67  92  69  91 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Struble/Hess/Shuler



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000
FXUS62 KMFL 291725
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
125 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...Seabreezes have developed and pushed inland on both
coasts with the occasional shra/tsra, mainly along east coast.
Based on current satellite/radar trends, have removed VCTS from
KFXE-KFLL- KOPF-KMIA where the seabreeze is quieter and has pushed
well west. VCTS remains for KPBI, where there is ongoing
convection as the seabreeze interacts with the Lake Okeechobee
breeze, and for KTMB, both through 20Z-21Z. Have also removed VCTS
mention for KAPF as seabreeze is less active and already inland of
site. Ongoing convection will focus over interior after 20Z.
Seabreeze circulations collapse after 30/02Z with light and
variable winds overnight. Similar pattern to today on Monday.
/ALM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 946 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

UPDATE...No great revelations with the morning sounding as all
parameters continue to point towards a typical late spring/early
summertime pattern across the region. With no strong synoptic
forcing in place, steering flow is fairly light, allowing for both
seabreezes to develop and move inland early this afternoon. PWATS
are near normal, and temperatures aloft are on the cool side of
normal. All of this points to scattered showers and storms into
the afternoon hours lead by the seabreezes.

For the Gulf coast: Expect the seabreeze to get going early this
afternoon with most storms developing inland from the coastal
areas.

For the east coast: Cu is already developing, bringing the
possibility for a shower or two late this morning before the east
coast seabreeze gets going and better shower and storm chances
shift over the western metro and eventually the interior.

Lightning will be the main concern with ANY storms that develop.
Slow movement may bring some locally heavy rainfall, but this is
more likely out over the interior Everglades. /ALM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 347 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Typical summer will dominate the week, with warm
temperatures and diurnal showers and thunderstorms focusing over
interior sections of the state.

SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...Quiet conditions have
prevailed overnight, with modest drainage flow and only a few
clouds. Dry conditions will most likely prevail through the
morning, before sea-breeze boundaries develop and push inland.
Showers and thunderstorms, scattered in nature, are expected to
form along these boundaries, mostly likely over or inland of the
western suburbs of the east coast metropolitan areas (and eastern
sections of Naples metropolitan area). Similar evolution of
convection is expected Memorial Day, with perhaps a slight
reduction in overall coverage of convection. By Tuesday, slightly
drier air moves in, and afternoon rain chances diminish further.

Temperatures through early week will remain near or just slightly
above average. Maxima should be upper 80s to near 90 degrees over
all metropolitan areas, with some low 90s over interior sections
of South Florida.  Minima will be in the 70s.

Moderate risk of rip currents will prevail on Palm Beach County
beaches today due to easterly wind. Lighter wind on Memorial Day
may reduce this threat.

LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
Little in the way of synoptic features to change overall weather
pattern or focus rain/thunderstorm chances through the week. A
weak deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States will
support diurnal convection over the interior, with only low
chances along the coasts through Thursday. Moisture will gradually
increase through the period, leading to better rain chances at
week`s end.

MARINE... Winds and seas will generally remain well below
hazardous levels through the week. Although a few afternoon
thunderstorms cant be ruled out along the immediate Gulf and
Atlantic coasts, Lake Okeechobee will have the greatest risk for
hazardous thunderstorms early this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  73  87  73  89 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  75  88  75  89 /  20  20  10  10
Miami            76  89  75  90 /  10  30  10  20
Naples           72  88  72  88 /  10  30  10  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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000
FXUS62 KTBW 291443
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1043 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Weak high pressure will be building down over the Gulf of Mexico
and ridge across the area today with an upper trough in place
across the state. Light winds will quickly turn to the W/NW late
this morning and through the afternoon with the sea breeze.
Scattered mainly afternoon and early evening showers and
thunderstorms will be possible with the highest chances inland of
I-75 and south of I-4. Temperatures are on track to reach into the
upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. Current forecast handles
all of this well and have no updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected through the period.
Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible
mainly inland and south which would cause brief MVFR to IFR
conditions if it moves over a terminal, but have VCTS currently
mentioned for these.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly flow will become W/NW through the afternoon as weak high
pressure builds over the Gulf of Mexico and the sea breeze sets up
over land. Ridging will then be in place across the waters through
the week and keep winds and seas light. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon/evening. Current
forecast is on track and have little change for the update.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  90  75  90  75 /  30  10  30  10
FMY  91  73  91  73 /  30  30  40  20
GIF  92  73  93  72 /  40  30  40  20
SRQ  89  73  87  73 /  20  10  20  10
BKV  91  69  92  69 /  20  10  30  20
SPG  89  77  90  76 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
UPPER AIR...05/Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude



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000
FXUS62 KMLB 291203
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
8 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR. Better chances of an isolated TS far southern inland areas
where the moisture levels are higher, the potential of Lake/Sea
Breeze interaction higher and the steering winds above 5000 feet
would tend to push any convection back to the coast.

Previous Discussion Issued at 316 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...Cyclone Bonnie drifting north along the SC
coast will bring west to NW flow locally over the next 24h. Gradient
flow will not be strong enough however to prevent development of an
east coast breeze boundary. A modest increase in moisture over most
of the area south of I-4 during the weekend will help lead to development
of slow moving afternoon showers and sct storms mainly across Osceola
county and the Space Coast south to Lake Okeechobee and Treasure Coast.
Storm development will closely be tied to sfc heating and boundary
interactions with the main hazards of lightning gusty winds and brief
heavy rain. Some nuisance flooding will be possible due to rather
weak winds aloft.

Late precipitation mainly inland associated with boundary
collisions should come to an end by around 11 pm. Some marine
showers should remain confined to the waters and Gulf stream due
to lack of an onshore steering component. Expect partly cloudy
skies and temperatures in the L70s by daybreak Monday.

Memorial Day...Remnants of Bonnie will meander near the Carolinas
and mid Atlc coast as a weak surface boundary approaches from the
west. A light wind regime continues with early morning NWRLY flow
becoming onshore along the coast as the ECSB develops and penetrates
inland. Winds become light to calm again in the evening. Weak mid-
upper troughing over the area, combined with adequate moisture and
afternoon instability will be enough to ignite mainly
afternoon/evening showers/storms (20pct coast/30pct interior),
though most locations will remain dry. Highs in the M-U 80s along
the coast and L90s inland. Lows in the U60s/L70s.

Tue-Tue night...The pressure gradient remains weak with light
offshore morning winds becoming onshore along the east coast in the
late morning/afternoon. A similar day to Mon with mainly afternoon
SCHC-CHC convection favoring inland areas. Highs in the L90s inland
and U80s at the coast. Overnight lows continue in the U60s to L70s.

Wed-Sat...Weak mid-upper level troughing still across FL early in
the period, then shortwave ridging builds across the peninsula Fri-
Sat in response to troughing deepening over southeast TX. At the
surface the pressure pattern continues weak and we will see a daily
sea breeze regime with boundary collisions well into the interior.
Will continue CHC afternoon/early evening storm chances with
convection favoring well inland. The storm motion will be fairly
weak with main storm threats of locally heavy downpours, lightning,
and gusty winds. Consistent highs/lows with maxes U80s/L90s degrees
interior and M-U80s at the coast, mins in the U60s/L70s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds will be primary over the forecast area over the next
24H. There will be isold shra along the coast this morning with
development of slow moving sct SHRA and afternoon TS inland and
along the Treasure and Space Coasts, bringing brief MVFR conds
mainly S of KORL to KTTS.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight...Swells ascd with psg of cyclone Bonnie will
slowly diminish through the period. A review of sig WV heights overnight
show seas around 4-5 ft over the outer waters and around 3 ft near
shore should continue during today with a slow decrease due to loss
of swell component into tonight. No headlines required.

Memorial Day...Weak pressure gradient over the area with offshore
morning winds transitioning to onshore at the coast with sea breeze
formation and push inland. Mainly isolated shra/tsra chances. Wind
speeds generally AOB 10 kts. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft
offshore.

Tue-Thu...Favorable small craft boating conditions continue as a
persistent weak wind regime remains in place with late night/morning
offshore winds becoming onshore by late morning/early afternoon
surrounding the ECSB. Wind speeds generally 6-12 kts. Isolated
shra/tsra chances at best. Seas generally 2-3 ft near shore and 3 ft
to perhaps 4 ft (well offshore) over the open Atlc.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  69  89  69 /  20  20  20  20
MCO  92  70  93  70 /  30  20  30  20
MLB  87  69  88  70 /  30  30  20  20
VRB  87  69  89  69 /  40  30  20  20
LEE  92  70  92  71 /  20  20  30  20
SFB  92  70  92  71 /  20  20  20  20
ORL  91  72  92  72 /  30  20  30  20
FPR  88  68  90  68 /  40  30  20  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelly
LONG TERM...Wimmer




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290747
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
347 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summer will dominate the week, with warm temperatures and
diurnal showers and thunderstorms focusing over interior sections
of the state.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Sunday through Tuesday/...
Quiet conditions have prevailed overnight, with modest drainage
flow and only a few clouds. Dry conditions will most likely
prevail through the morning, before sea-breeze boundaries develop
and push inland. Showers and thunderstorms, scattered in nature,
are expected to form along these boundaries, mostly likely over or
inland of the western suburbs of the east coast metropolitan areas
(and eastern sections of Naples metropolitan area). Similar
evolution of convection is expected Memorial Day, with perhaps a
slight reduction in overall coverage of convection. By Tuesday,
slightly drier air moves in, and afternoon rain chances diminish
further.

Temperatures through early week will remain near or just slightly
above average. Maxima should be upper 80s to near 90 degrees over
all metropolitan areas, with some low 90s over interior sections
of South Florida.  Minima will be in the 70s.

Moderate risk of rip currents will prevail on Palm Beach County
beaches today due to easterly wind. Lighter wind on Memorial Day
may reduce this threat.

.LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
Little in the way of synoptic features to change overall weather
pattern or focus rain/thunderstorm chances through the week. A
weak deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States will
support diurnal convection over the interior, with only low
chances along the coasts through Thursday. Moisture will gradually
increase through the period, leading to better rain chances at
week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through the late morning hours with variable
winds shifting onshore in the afternoon as sea breezes develop.
TAFS will keep carrying VCSH and periods of MVFR cigs for this
afternoon, but upcoming updates may include mention of VCTS as
conditions will be similar to yesterday afternoon. VFR should then
prevail at all terminals this evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will generally remain well below hazardous levels
through the week. Although a few afternoon thunderstorms cant be
ruled out along the immediate Gulf and Atlantic coasts, Lake
Okeechobee will have the greatest risk for hazardous thunderstorms
early this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  87  73  87  73 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  87  75  88  75 /  10  20  20  10
Miami            89  76  89  75 /  20  10  30  10
Naples           88  72  88  72 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...17/AR



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000
FXUS62 KTAE 290712
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The messy synoptic pattern continue across the Southeast this
morning. WV imagery supports model data that places an elongated +PV
anomaly (N to S) that essentially splits GA and FL in half (W to E).
Further west, while the core of highest PV remains in the Middle
Mississippi Valley, a channel of weakly +PV extends through the
Lower Mississippi Valley, into the Southeast. At the surface, we
have Tropical Storm Bonnie off the GA/SC coasts, with ridging
spreading down the Appalachians into the Tri-State region.

The shortwaves mentioned above and T.S. Bonnie will have little
impact on the region besides an increase in mid to high level
cloudiness at times. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected once again this afternoon along the Panhandle seabreeze
front. With northerly steering flow, expect these storms to remain
pinned fairly close to the coast. There are some indications that
late this afternoon into the evening, the northerly flow regime
could advect in a few showers that may develop north of the region
this afternoon. This is highly uncertain at this time and would
mainly affect areas along and north of a line from Albany through
Dothan.

Otherwise, another afternoon with highs slightly above seasonal
averages is expected. Low 90s are forecast inland, with mid 80s
along the immediate coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The broad upper ridge over the east coast will lift northeast
through Monday. Tropical Storm Bonnie will slowly move along the
coast of the Carolinas but will not have any impact locally.
Daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s will allow
for afternoon thunderstorms to form along the sea breeze. PoPs
will be in the 20-30% range. Highs will be in the lower 90s and
lows near 70.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

A trough over the northern plains will deepen as it moves eastward.
Locally the sea breeze will be the dominant forcing mechanism and
PoPs will range from 20-30%. Rain chances will increase as the
next system arrives over the weekend. Highs will be in the lower
90s with lows near 70.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF with the
possibility of nearby storms at ECP later this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will generally be from the west around 10 knots. Seas will
be 2 feet or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from marginally high dispersions across the Suwannee River
Basin the next couple of days, hazardous fire weather conditions are
not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

All rivers are below action stage and there are no hydrology
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   93  70  93  70  93 /  10  10  20  10  40
Panama City   84  73  86  74  86 /  30  10  20  10  20
Dothan        90  68  94  69  93 /  20  10  20  10  30
Albany        90  68  93  69  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
Valdosta      90  67  93  68  92 /   0   0  10  10  30
Cross City    91  68  91  70  91 /  10   0  20  10  20
Apalachicola  85  72  86  73  86 /  30   0  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290616
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
216 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail through the late morning hours with variable
winds shifting onshore in the afternoon as sea breezes develop.
TAFS will keep carrying VCSH and periods of MVFR cigs for this
afternoon, but upcoming updates may include mention of VCTS as
conditions will be similar to yesterday afternoon. VFR should then
prevail at all terminals this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 752 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

UPDATE...

The early evening POP`s were reduced to reflect the dissipating
evening convection. Currently there is only one lingering
thunderstorm in Southwest Miami Dade. Otherwise...forecast
remains on track.

60

AVIATION...

VFR expected through the period, though some convection affecting a
terminal could produce brief MVFR or even IFR conditions. Overnight,
winds may be lighter which could produce some variability at some
terminals. After sunrise, easterly flow should pick up at most
terminals with a Gulf sea breeze expected to develop and push
through APF mid-morning into the afternoon. Another round of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms is possible again on
Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 446 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A surface trough extends into the Florida peninsula with newly
named Tropical Storm Bonnie still southeast of the South Carolina
coast. In addition recent water vapor imagery indicates an upper
level low centered roughly across the northwest Bahamas islands.
The upper level low is an extension of an upper level trough that
extends from the mid-west into the southeast and the adjacent Gulf
and Atlantic waters.

Forecast through Memorial Day...the global models generally
depict a plume of deep layered moisture extending southwestward of
Tropical Storm Bonnie and across South Florida and adjacent
Atlantic waters. This deep layered moisture is forecast to linger
across South Florida through the remainder of the weekend and into
Memorial Day...with forecast soundings indicating pwat`s around
the range of 1.6 to 1.9 inches through this period. The global
models also indicate an upper level trough persisting across the
southeastern states and across the Florida Straits and the
Florida peninsula. For the over night and morning periods...with
the presence of the upper level low and inherent uncertainties
forecasting their effect on potential for convection...departed
from guidance over the Atlantic waters and Atlantic metro areas
and added slight chance of thunderstorms with the guidance
indicating little chance. For the afternoon periods...scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly over the interior
regions with the greatest coverage forecast across the interior
regions on Sunday afternoon. Also added slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms across the Atlantic waters and Atlantic
metro areas during the afternoon periods with the presence of the
upper level trough...again departing from guidance but need to
emphasize the uncertainties as well.

Rip currents...given lack of any local swells and lighter regional
winds a slight risk of rip currents is expected across the
Atlantic coast beaches through the remainder of the holiday
weekend and Memorial Day.

Forecast for Tuesday through Friday...latest guidance consensus
indicates the aforementioned upper level trough lingering through
mid week with diurnally driven showers/thunderstorms forecast
Tuesday through Friday...with greatest coverage across the
interior regions.

MARINE...

Winds and seas forecast to be well below critical levels through
the forecast period. For the remainder of the holiday
weekend...winds are forecast to be 10 knots or less and generally
easterly with Gulf seas 2 feet or less and Atlantic and Gulf
Stream waters 2 to 3 feet although early Monday morning Gulf
Stream seas east of Palm Beach County could reach near 4 feet if
the winds become northeasterly as forecast early monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  87  73  88  72 /  30  20  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  85  74  88  75 /  30  20  30  20
Miami            88  74  89  74 /  40  20  40  20
Naples           88  73  89  72 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...17/AR



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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281855
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...High pressure is centered near Bermuda and extends west
into the Southeastern United States. Tropical Depression Two is
approaching the South Carolina coast and has eroded the ridge across
the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. Light and variable breezes
prevail along the island chain and at the marine observation
platforms. This morning`s sounding sampled a weakly unstable profile
with a thin layer of inhibition near 850 mb. An early afternoon
cloud line has succombed to the dry, inhibitive layers sampled this
morning. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints
remain near 70.

.FORECAST...Very little change to the forecast tonight through
Wednesday. Steering will remain light and mostly variable, meanwhile
surface winds will be from the northeast to east and average less
than 10 knots. Breezes will become variable each afternoon adjacent
to the island chain. The boundary layer will be rich in
theta-e...although static stability will limit convective growth. The
best chances for showers and thunderstorms will hinge upon mesoscale
processes and boundary collisions. Cloud line genesis may have
successes. Temperatures will reach near 90 while overnight lows
plummet into the upper 70s. There will likely be radiational cooling
overnight as light winds and dewpoints near 70 allow temperatures to
fall well below guidance. There is a rather strong signal for a
synoptic scale pattern change Wednesday night through Thursday night.
The subtropical ridge will become uniform across the Western
Atlantic. Low level inhibition will erode, easterlies will freshen,
and the upper levels will cool. We increased pops to 30 percent
Friday through Saturday night because of the aforementioned changes.

&&

.MARINE...No current advisories or cautionary headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at both the Key
West and Marathon terminals through this evening. Light east to
southeasterly breezes will turn light and variable this afternoon
through the overnight period, while rain chances will remain scant.

&&

.CLIMATE...Back in 2013, 2.40" of rain fell in Key West, setting the
daily rainfall record for May 28th. Rainfall records in Key West date
back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 75 86 78 86 / 10 10 20 20
Marathon 77 88 79 88 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....Fling
DATA COLLECTION.......Fling

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281442
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1042 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...High pressure is centered near Bermuda and extends west
into the Southeastern United States. Tropical Depression Two is
approaching the South Carolina coast and has eroded the ridge across
the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. Light east to southeast
breezes prevail along and south of the island chain. North of the
islands breezes are light and variable. This morning`s sounding
sampled a weakly unstable profile with a thin layer of inhibition
near 850 mb. A mosaic of dry layers persists within the vertical
column, and yet, cloud line cumulus can be seen congealing across
the Lower Keys on the latest GOES visible imagery. Temperatures are
in the mid 80s and dewpoints remain near 70. The forecast is on track
and needs no adjustments. Isolated showers may form within the
developing island cloud line, favoring the northern fringes of the
Lower Keys.

&&

.MARINE...No current advisories or statements.

&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions to prevail today across both
island terminals as light east to southeast breezes persist. A brief
episode of MVFR ceilings is feasible with passing cloud lines,
however frequency of occurrence will be too low to include in the
forecast.

&&

.CLIMATE...Back in 2013, 2.40" of rain fell in Key West, setting the
daily rainfall record for May 28th. Rainfall records in Key West
date back to 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....Fling
DATA COLLECTION.......Chesser

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 281438
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1038 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Have made additional adjustments to bump up PoPs even further given
current storm coverage and HRRR input, showing coverage spreading
westward early this afternoon. It is showing the showers are still
forecast to move off the coast and into the interior, probably
sometime between 17z and 20z. Given the slow movement of the
showers, will add a slight chance of urban street flooding to the
hazardous weather outlook as well for the southeast Florida metro
areas. Some locations have already received around 2 inches of
rain this morning, and the rain looks to continue for at least
another hour or two in those locations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 856 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

UPDATE...
This mornings sounding has come in with expected higher PWATs.
However, 500mb temps are still relatively warm, at -8.7C. There is
a weak inversion between 850mb and 800mb, as well as another weak
one at around 700mb. NCAPE is up to .15 this morning, so there is
decent vertical velocity. However, looking at RADAR, the showers
and storms making their way onto the southeast Florida Atlantic
coast, are having trouble penetrating too far inland. This should
begin to change as day time heating begins to destabilize the
interior. Have raised PoPs along the coast this morning to
reflect current activity and adjusted coverage in the interior for
this afternoon. The HRRR is showing the convective activity to
approach the Gulf coast this afternoon, then it appears the Gulf
breeze kicks in late this afternoon and blows the convection back
towards the interior, before it winds down this evening.

Other than the adjustments mentioned above, and some minor
adjustments to initialize with current conditions, no significant
changes have been made.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 807 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

AVIATION...
Unsettled weather is forecast through the day across South
Florida, with a chance of showers and storms along both coasts.
Currently, showers and isolated storms over the Atlantic waters
are weakening as they move onshore. Have gone back and added a
tempo for a couple of hours this morning for TSRA as the lightning
activity has increased some this morning. The activity is forecast
to move towards the interior by this afternoon. VFR will be the
predominate condition, with brief IFR possible under heavy showers
and storms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
With no major weather features impacting South Florida well into
next week, sea breeze boundaries will be the main driver of
showers across the region. Temperatures will remain seasonably
warm with the most likely area for showers and thunderstorms being
the interior.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tropical Depression 2 remains poorly organized early this morning
as it moves northwestward north of the Bahamas. Located at 2 AM
EDT about 300 miles SE of the South Carolina coast, TD 2 is
expected to become a tropical storm, with the name of Bonnie,
sometime today, but will not be impacting South Florida.

Across South Florida, light to moderate easterly flow continues
and low level moisture has been sufficient for isolated to
scattered Atlantic showers overnight. A few of these showers have
impacted and will continue to impact the east coast metropolitan
areas. Expect this activity to gradually increase in coverage and
intensity after daybreak, with a few thunderstorms possible by
late morning. By afternoon, the Atlantic sea breeze will focus
showers more inland, so Atlantic coastal areas may dry some. Any
thunderstorms today could produce frequent lightning, but strong
convection is not anticipated. Activity will diurnally diminish
this evening, with a similar pattern forecast for Sunday. By
Memorial Day, slightly drier air in place will lead to a
reduction in shower/thunderstorm coverage.

Temperatures through the holiday weekend will generally remain in
the 80s for maxima (with some low 90s over interior and 70s for
minima. Winds will be noticeably less breezy than last few days.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The drying trend that is forecast to arrive Memorial Day will
continue through much of next week. Although sea-breeze boundaries
and subsequent outflow collisions will still suffice for scattered
afternoon thunderstorms over the interior, the urbanized areas on
each coast will only have slight rain chances through the period.
Temperatures will be near climatological normals for the start of
summer, with highs reaching upper 80s on the east and west coasts,
then low 90s from The Everglades to Lake Okeechobee. Low
temperatures will be in the 70s.

MARINE...
Tropical Depression 2 should not have impact on South Florida`s
waters, as it is expected to move northwest toward South Carolina
and away from South Florida this weekend. East wind averaging 10
knots should prevail into early next week. A few thunderstorms are
possible, especially on Lake Okeechobee in the afternoons,
otherwise benign marine conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  85  74  86  73 /  40  20  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  86  75  88  75 /  60  30  30  20
Miami            87  75  88  75 /  60  20  40  20
Naples           86  72  88  72 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....23/SK




000
FXUS62 KTAE 281417
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1017 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
At 14 UTC this morning, our region was located between weak high
pressure across the Southern Appalachians, TD2 about 225 SSE of
Charleston SC and an approaching mid level disturbance across the
Mid Mississippi River Valley. This has left a relatively weak
pressure pattern in place across North Florida, with generally
light easterly flow. Aloft, drier mid level air across the
Carolina Piedmont in advance of TD2 extends down through South
Georgia and into North Florida, as depicted well in the 12z KTAE
sounding. This drier air aloft and subsidence present at 800 mb
will be the main limiting factors for thunderstorm development
today across the eastern half of the region.

The airmass is a little more favorable for convection off to the
west of Tallahassee, where the hi-res guidance suggests isolated
thunderstorm development in the late afternoon with the Panhandle
sea breeze. Given good run to run consistency in the hi-res
guidance, will continue the low end PoPs in the Panhandle sea
breeze zone. Should be a warm day, especially across South Georgia
and the Florida Big Bend, where highs will be in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the period.
Iso TSRA handled with VC groups at ECP this afternoon. Fog is
unlikely overnight, though cannot be ruled out, at least at MVFR
levels at VLD on Sunday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [317 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

A broad upper level ridge will stay in place over the east coast
through Sunday before lifting north on Monday. Tropical Depression
Two, currently 350 miles southeast of Charleston, will slowly
approach the South Carolina coast through the weekend. Impacts will
stay well to the northeast of the local area. There will be a slight
chance (20-30%) of sea breeze thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs
will be in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Upper level flow will be zonal to start the long term period. By
Wednesday the trough over the central US will begin to deepen. Moisture
will increase on Thursday resulting in a 30% chance of thunderstorms
Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in the low 90s with lows near
70.


.MARINE...

Southeasterly winds around 10 knots will become westerly on
Monday. Seas will be 3 feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

With rivers below action stage and no significant rain for the
next few days, there are no hydrology concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  68  92  69  93 /  20  10  10   0  20
Panama City   82  71  85  73  87 /  30   0  10  10  20
Dothan        88  67  91  69  92 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        89  67  91  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      88  66  91  67  92 /   0  10  10   0  20
Cross City    91  67  90  67  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
Apalachicola  82  71  86  72  87 /  30   0  10   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston




000
FXUS62 KTBW 281417
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1017 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Weak ridging in place across the area today as TD2 lifts NW toward
the SE US coastline. Lighter easterly flow in the lower levels
will allow for a greater west coast sea breeze development today.
Will see some scattered afternoon thunderstorms today, mainly
south of I-4, with highs reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Current forecast is on track and have no updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected through the period. A few
afternoon thunderstorms may be possible mainly near the southern
terminals so have VCTS there.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and seas over the coastal waters will allow for winds
to turn onshore/to the NW near the coast this afternoon. May also
see a few afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms pushing
offshore of the southern waters. Current forecast is on track and
have no major changes to the update.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  90  74  90  75 /  20  20  20  20
FMY  90  72  90  72 /  50  30  40  20
GIF  92  71  92  72 /  20  20  40  30
SRQ  89  72  87  73 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  91  68 /  20  20  30  20
SPG  89  75  89  76 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
UPPER AIR...05/Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude




000
FXUS62 KTAE 281417
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1017 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
At 14 UTC this morning, our region was located between weak high
pressure across the Southern Appalachians, TD2 about 225 SSE of
Charleston SC and an approaching mid level disturbance across the
Mid Mississippi River Valley. This has left a relatively weak
pressure pattern in place across North Florida, with generally
light easterly flow. Aloft, drier mid level air across the
Carolina Piedmont in advance of TD2 extends down through South
Georgia and into North Florida, as depicted well in the 12z KTAE
sounding. This drier air aloft and subsidence present at 800 mb
will be the main limiting factors for thunderstorm development
today across the eastern half of the region.

The airmass is a little more favorable for convection off to the
west of Tallahassee, where the hi-res guidance suggests isolated
thunderstorm development in the late afternoon with the Panhandle
sea breeze. Given good run to run consistency in the hi-res
guidance, will continue the low end PoPs in the Panhandle sea
breeze zone. Should be a warm day, especially across South Georgia
and the Florida Big Bend, where highs will be in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of the period.
Iso TSRA handled with VC groups at ECP this afternoon. Fog is
unlikely overnight, though cannot be ruled out, at least at MVFR
levels at VLD on Sunday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [317 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

A broad upper level ridge will stay in place over the east coast
through Sunday before lifting north on Monday. Tropical Depression
Two, currently 350 miles southeast of Charleston, will slowly
approach the South Carolina coast through the weekend. Impacts will
stay well to the northeast of the local area. There will be a slight
chance (20-30%) of sea breeze thunderstorms each afternoon. Highs
will be in the lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Upper level flow will be zonal to start the long term period. By
Wednesday the trough over the central US will begin to deepen. Moisture
will increase on Thursday resulting in a 30% chance of thunderstorms
Thursday and Friday. Highs will be in the low 90s with lows near
70.


.MARINE...

Southeasterly winds around 10 knots will become westerly on
Monday. Seas will be 3 feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.HYDROLOGY...

With rivers below action stage and no significant rain for the
next few days, there are no hydrology concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   91  68  92  69  93 /  20  10  10   0  20
Panama City   82  71  85  73  87 /  30   0  10  10  20
Dothan        88  67  91  69  92 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        89  67  91  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      88  66  91  67  92 /   0  10  10   0  20
Cross City    91  67  90  67  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
Apalachicola  82  71  86  72  87 /  30   0  10   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Weston
LONG TERM...Weston
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Weston
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Weston




000
FXUS62 KTBW 281417
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1017 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Weak ridging in place across the area today as TD2 lifts NW toward
the SE US coastline. Lighter easterly flow in the lower levels
will allow for a greater west coast sea breeze development today.
Will see some scattered afternoon thunderstorms today, mainly
south of I-4, with highs reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Current forecast is on track and have no updates planned.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected through the period. A few
afternoon thunderstorms may be possible mainly near the southern
terminals so have VCTS there.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and seas over the coastal waters will allow for winds
to turn onshore/to the NW near the coast this afternoon. May also
see a few afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms pushing
offshore of the southern waters. Current forecast is on track and
have no major changes to the update.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  90  74  90  75 /  20  20  20  20
FMY  90  72  90  72 /  50  30  40  20
GIF  92  71  92  72 /  20  20  40  30
SRQ  89  72  87  73 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  91  68 /  20  20  30  20
SPG  89  75  89  76 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
UPPER AIR...05/Carlisle
DECISION SUPPORT...09/Rude




000
FXUS62 KMLB 281401
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
10 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.Discussion...
TD2 located southeast of the GA/SC line was moving northwest at
about 14 mph per the latest NHC advisory and is well north of East
Central Florida. High pressure stretches northeast to southwest
along the Appalachian Mtns and into the Northeast Gulf of
Mexico/Florida Big Bend area.

Water vapor satellite imagery showing that the dry subsident mid
level air covered the northern third of East Central Florida and
should hamper afternoon precipitation. East to northeast winds bring
morning showers to the coast then clear out north of Cape Canaveral.
Deeper moisture to the south and marine layer stratocu will be
pushed ashore by the northeast to east wind. Expected  isolated to
scattered showers first at the coast south of Cape Canaveral then
the interior late morning and in the afternoon as the marine
stratocu is pushed west/inland by the prevailing east to northeast
winds.

The current 20-30 POP everywhere except the 40 POP in place from
northwest Osceola to western Martin and west to the Kissimmee River
looks good.

Zone update will freshen up the wording for the afternoon hours.

&&

.Aviation...
Tempo VFR ceilings KISM to Indiantown west to the Kissimmee River.

&&

.Marine...
Buoy 41009 20nm east of Cape Canaveral was recording Northwest wind
at 10 knots and 4.6 seas with a 4.3 foot, 8 second northeast swell
component. Buoy 4101 at 120nm east of New Smyrna Beach was recording
east northeast wind around 10 knots and a 6.6 foot wave composed of
a 6.2 foot, 8 second east northeast swell component.

Did an earlier marine update to account for the 5 to 6 foot seas
beyond 40nm of the Volusia County coast.

Should see a slow small increase in the seas as the swell being
detected at buoy 41010 works its way toward the East Central Florida
coastal waters this afternoon and evening.


Previous Discussion issued at 813 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...VFR Afternoon showers vicinity TAF sites Kissimmee
Melbourne south still a good call.

.MARINE... Quick update to the offshore Flagler Beach to Volusia
Brevard County Line marine zone to add Small Craft Exercise Caution
For Seas, seas to 6 feet beyond 40nm of shore.

&&

Previous Discussion issued at 325 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...A slowly organizing TD2 has already reached
its closest point to central Fl early this morning as it treks NW
toward the SE US coast. Peripheral effects on the traditionally
dry western side of this feature show deepest drying is confined
just to the west of the local area. Suitable moisture for
development of afternoon pcpn will exist mainly inland and across
the Treasure Coast where backing mid level winds wl tend to focus
rain chcs inland as the east coast breeze develops and moves
inland. A few marine based showers will affect the coast this
morning before inland locations become the primary development
area by early afternoon. expect partly to mostly sunny skies with
warm temperatures and northeast to north breezes.

This evening, late precipitation inland should come to an end by
around 10 pm. Marine showers should remain confined to the waters
and Gulf stream due to lack of an onshore steering component.
Expect partly cloudy skies and pleasantly mild temperatures to
fall into the u60s by daybreak Sunday.

Sun-Sun night...Remnants of TD#2 will meander near the Carolinas on
this day with moisture wrapping around counter-clockwise. A light
wind regime continues with early morning NWRLY flow becoming onshore
along the coast as the ECSB develops and penetrates inland. Winds
become light to calm again in the evening. Weak mid-upper troughing
over the area, combined with decent moisture and surface heating
will be enough to ignite mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms
(20pct coast/30pct interior). Highs in the M80s along the coast and
U80s to around 90 degrees inland. Lows in the U60s/L70s.

Memorial Day...The pressure gradient remains weak with light
offshore morning winds becoming onshore along the east coast in the
late morning/afternoon. A similar day to Sun with mainly afternoon
SCHC-CHC convection favoring inland areas. Highs in the L90s inland
and U80s at the coast. Overnight lows continue in the U60s to
L70s.

Tue-Fri...A persistent pattern continues with weak mid-upper level
troughing still across the FL peninsula during this time. At the
surface the pressure pattern continues weak and we will see a daily
sea breeze regime with boundary collisions across the interior. Will
continue CHC afternoon/early evening storm chances with convection
favoring the interior. The storm motion will be fairly weak with
main storm threats of locally heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty
winds. Consistent highs/lows with maxes U80s/90 degrees interior and
M-U80s at the coast, mins in the U60s/L70s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds will be primary over the forecast area over the next
24H. There will be isold shra along the coast with development of
sct shra and afternoon TS inland bringing brief mvfr conds mainly
S of KISM to KMLB.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight...Outer buoy 41010 indicates higher wave train
with seas around 6ft and periods of 9-10 sec beyond the marine
area poised to enter the waters during the day. Outer waters will
feel the greatest effects from swell ascd with developing TD2 with
seas averaging around 5 ft and around 3 to 4 ft seas within 20nm
from the coast into tonight. Headlines for winds and seas are not
anticipated.

Sun-Sun night...Weak pressure gradient over the area with offshore
morning winds transitioning to onshore at the coast with sea breeze
formation and push inland. Mainly isolated shra/tsra chances. Wind
speeds generally AOB 10 kts. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft
offshore.

Mon-Wed...Favorable small craft boating conditions continue as a
persistent weak wind regime remains in place with late night/morning
offshore winds becoming onshore by afternoon surrounding the ECSB.
Wind speeds generally 6-12 kts. Isolated shra/tsra chances. Seas
generally 2 ft near shore and 3 ft over the open Atlc.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  69  87  69 /  20  10  20  30
MCO  91  70  91  70 /  30  10  30  30
MLB  87  71  86  70 /  30  20  20  20
VRB  87  69  86  68 /  30  20  20  20
LEE  91  71  90  71 /  30  10  30  30
SFB  90  70  90  70 /  20  10  30  30
ORL  90  72  90  72 /  30  10  30  30
FPR  87  69  86  67 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX/DSS/AVIATION...Kelly
FORECASTS...Wimmer




000
FXUS62 KMLB 281213
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
813 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...VFR Afternoon showers vicinity TAF sites Kissimmee
Melbourne south still a good call.

.MARINE... Quick update to the offshore Flagler Beach to Volusia
Brevard County Line marine zone to add Small Craft Exercise Caution
For Seas, seas to 6 feet beyond 40nm of shore.

&&

Previous Discussion issued at 325 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...A slowly organizing TD2 has already reached
its closest point to central Fl early this morning as it treks NW
toward the SE US coast. Peripheral effects on the traditionally
dry western side of this feature show deepest drying is confined
just to the west of the local area. Suitable moisture for
development of afternoon pcpn will exist mainly inland and across
the Treasure Coast where backing mid level winds wl tend to focus
rain chcs inland as the east coast breeze develops and moves
inland. A few marine based showers will affect the coast this
morning before inland locations become the primary development
area by early afternoon. expect partly to mostly sunny skies with
warm temperatures and northeast to north breezes.

This evening, late precipitation inland should come to an end by
around 10 pm. Marine showers should remain confined to the waters
and Gulf stream due to lack of an onshore steering component.
Expect partly cloudy skies and pleasantly mild temperatures to
fall into the u60s by daybreak Sunday.

Sun-Sun night...Remnants of TD#2 will meander near the Carolinas on
this day with moisture wrapping around counter-clockwise. A light
wind regime continues with early morning NWRLY flow becoming onshore
along the coast as the ECSB develops and penetrates inland. Winds
become light to calm again in the evening. Weak mid-upper troughing
over the area, combined with decent moisture and surface heating
will be enough to ignite mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms
(20pct coast/30pct interior). Highs in the M80s along the coast and
U80s to around 90 degrees inland. Lows in the U60s/L70s.

Memorial Day...The pressure gradient remains weak with light
offshore morning winds becoming onshore along the east coast in the
late morning/afternoon. A similar day to Sun with mainly afternoon
SCHC-CHC convection favoring inland areas. Highs in the L90s inland
and U80s at the coast. Overnight lows continue in the U60s to
L70s.

Tue-Fri...A persistent pattern continues with weak mid-upper level
troughing still across the FL peninsula during this time. At the
surface the pressure pattern continues weak and we will see a daily
sea breeze regime with boundary collisions across the interior. Will
continue CHC afternoon/early evening storm chances with convection
favoring the interior. The storm motion will be fairly weak with
main storm threats of locally heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty
winds. Consistent highs/lows with maxes U80s/90 degrees interior and
M-U80s at the coast, mins in the U60s/L70s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds will be primary over the forecast area over the next
24H. There will be isold shra along the coast with development of
sct shra and afternoon TS inland bringing brief mvfr conds mainly
S of KISM to KMLB.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight...Outer buoy 41010 indicates higher wave train
with seas around 6ft and periods of 9-10 sec beyond the marine
area poised to enter the waters during the day. Outer waters will
feel the greatest effects from swell ascd with developing TD2 with
seas averaging around 5 ft and around 3 to 4 ft seas within 20nm
from the coast into tonight. Headlines for winds and seas are not
anticipated.

Sun-Sun night...Weak pressure gradient over the area with offshore
morning winds transitioning to onshore at the coast with sea breeze
formation and push inland. Mainly isolated shra/tsra chances. Wind
speeds generally AOB 10 kts. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft
offshore.

Mon-Wed...Favorable small craft boating conditions continue as a
persistent weak wind regime remains in place with late night/morning
offshore winds becoming onshore by afternoon surrounding the ECSB.
Wind speeds generally 6-12 kts. Isolated shra/tsra chances. Seas
generally 2 ft near shore and 3 ft over the open Atlc.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  69  87  69 /  20  10  20  30
MCO  91  70  91  70 /  30  10  30  30
MLB  87  71  86  70 /  30  20  20  20
VRB  87  69  86  68 /  30  20  20  20
LEE  91  71  90  71 /  30  10  30  30
SFB  90  70  90  70 /  20  10  30  30
ORL  90  72  90  72 /  30  10  30  30
FPR  87  69  86  67 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX/DSS/AVIATION...Kelly
FORECASTS...Wimmer




000
FXUS62 KTBW 281207
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
807 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are generally expected through the period. A few
afternoon thunderstorms may be possible mainly near the southern
terminals so have VCTS there.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 334 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...In the upper levels, high
pressure ridging extends from near Bermuda northwest toward the mid
Atlantic region. The associated surface high also ridges west
southwest over the eastern seaboard and into the Gulf of Mexico.
Just to the south of this ridge, north of the Bahamas, Tropical
Depression Two has developed and is moving northwest toward the
South Carolina coastline. T.D. Two is expected to intensify and
become Tropical Storm Bonnie by Saturday morning. The storm is
expected to make landfall along the South Carolina coastline on
Sunday morning. The Florida peninsula should not feel any effects
from this storm over the coming days. Weak surface high pressure
will be the dominant weather factor over Florida for the next couple
of days with sea breeze boundaries being the main weather producer.
Sea breeze showers and storms can be expected during the afternoon
for the next couple of days with the highest concentration being
south of the I-4 corridor and over inland counties. Temperatures
will remain just around average with daytime highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
An amplified split flow upper air pattern will persist over the
conus during the period. Upper level troughing will linger over the
southeastern U.S. and Florida through much of the upcoming week
before weak upper ridging builds in late Thursday into Friday as
another upper level trough moves east into the lower Mississippi
valley. At the surface newly developed tropical cyclone Bonnie along
the South Carolina coast at the start of the period is forecast to
drift ever so slowly north-northeast along a baroclinic zone along
the Mid Atlantic coast through Tuesday before weakening and washing
out as surface high pressure re-builds in from the Atlantic
Wednesday through Friday. For additional information on tropical
cyclone Bonnie see the latest advisories being issued by the
National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Adequate low level moisture combined with daytime heating should
result in scattered diurnal sea breeze driven showers and storms
(pops in the 30 to 50 percent range) across the forecast area each
day...mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours...with
highest rain chances along and to the east of the I-75 corridor each
afternoon as the sea breeze boundary moves inland.

Temperatures will run a few degrees above seasonal norms through the
period with overnight lows in the lower 70s inland areas...and mid
70s along the coast...with daytime highs in the upper 80s along the
coast and lower 90s inland.

AVIATION...VFR conditions can be expected at all terminals through
the period. Will cover the possibility of thunderstorms moving
across the southern terminals with VCTS during the afternoon hours.

MARINE...High pressure to the north will keep a predominant
easterly wind over the coastal waters through Sunday except for
during the afternoon when the winds shift onshore as the sea breeze
sets up. On Monday, high pressure moves into the Gulf of Mexico and
will cause a shift in the winds to the northwest through Wednesday
next week. A chance of showers and storms can be expected over the
waters during the afternoon/evening hours. So with the exception of
gusty winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms, no other hazards are
expected through the period.

FIRE WEATHER...Relative humidity values will remain above any
critical levels so no fire weather concerns are expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  90  74  90  75 /  20  20  20  20
FMY  90  72  90  72 /  50  30  40  20
GIF  92  71  92  72 /  20  20  40  30
SRQ  87  72  87  73 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  91  68 /  20  20  30  20
SPG  89  75  89  76 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281207
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
807 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...
Unsettled weather is forecast through the day across South
Florida, with a chance of showers and storms along both coasts.
Currently, showers and isolated storms over the Atlantic waters
are weakening as they move onshore. Have gone back and added a
tempo for a couple of hours this morning for TSRA as the lightning
activity has increased some this morning. The activity is forecast
to move towards the interior by this afternoon. VFR will be the
predominate condition, with brief IFR possible under heavy showers
and storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
With no major weather features impacting South Florida well into
next week, sea breeze boundaries will be the main driver of
showers across the region. Temperatures will remain seasonably
warm with the most likely area for showers and thunderstorms being
the interior.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tropical Depression 2 remains poorly organized early this morning
as it moves northwestward north of the Bahamas. Located at 2 AM
EDT about 300 miles SE of the South Carolina coast, TD 2 is
expected to become a tropical storm, with the name of Bonnie,
sometime today, but will not be impacting South Florida.

Across South Florida, light to moderate easterly flow continues
and low level moisture has been sufficient for isolated to
scattered Atlantic showers overnight. A few of these showers have
impacted and will continue to impact the east coast metropolitan
areas. Expect this activity to gradually increase in coverage and
intensity after daybreak, with a few thunderstorms possible by
late morning. By afternoon, the Atlantic sea breeze will focus
showers more inland, so Atlantic coastal areas may dry some. Any
thunderstorms today could produce frequent lightning, but strong
convection is not anticipated. Activity will diurnally diminish
this evening, with a similar pattern forecast for Sunday. By
Memorial Day, slightly drier air in place will lead to a
reduction in shower/thunderstorm coverage.

Temperatures through the holiday weekend will generally remain in
the 80s for maxima (with some low 90s over interior and 70s for
minima. Winds will be noticeably less breezy than last few days.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The drying trend that is forecast to arrive Memorial Day will
continue through much of next week. Although sea-breeze boundaries
and subsequent outflow collisions will still suffice for scattered
afternoon thunderstorms over the interior, the urbanized areas on
each coast will only have slight rain chances through the period.
Temperatures will be near climatological normals for the start of
summer, with highs reaching upper 80s on the east and west coasts,
then low 90s from The Everglades to Lake Okeechobee. Low
temperatures will be in the 70s.

MARINE...
Tropical Depression 2 should not have impact on South Florida`s
waters, as it is expected to move northwest toward South Carolina
and away from South Florida this weekend. East wind averaging 10
knots should prevail into early next week. A few thunderstorms are
possible, especially on Lake Okeechobee in the afternoons,
otherwise benign marine conditions will prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  85  74  86  73 /  30  20  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  86  75  88  75 /  50  20  30  20
Miami            87  75  88  75 /  50  20  40  20
Naples           86  72  88  72 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KKEY 280231
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1031 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - Tropical Depression Two, moving northwestward north of
the western Bahamas is cutting the Florida Keys off from the Atlantic
high. As a result, winds are trending downwards across the forecast
area, and are now light out of the east. The environment is fairly
moist and unstable, with an uninhibited moist adiabatic profile above
the mixed layer. Surface dew points are on the low side, near 70.
This along with the weakening flow has provided little in the way of
encouragement for shower development, and virtually all showers in
the area emerged west southwestward off of South Florida.

Short Term - Tropical Depression Two will continue to remain between
the Florida Keys and the Atlantic high. As a result, expect
continued weak east flow across the Keys. Unstable conditions will
mean showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible overnight.
Weak flow and boundaries should keep coverage isolated at best. No
changes required in the zone forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Tropical Depression Two will continue to moving northwestward nearer
the Carolina coast tonight. This will keep Light east breezes will
prevail across Florida Keys waters. No cautions or advisories are
required. Only minor adjustments made in the evening marine update.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR rules will apply through the TAF period at both the Key West and
Marathon International Terminals. Winds will be generally out of the
east at 5 to 10 knots through 3k feet.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Keys Weather History, 1894, the low temperature in
Key West fell to 70 degrees. This set the daily record minimum
temperature for Key West on May 27th, which stands 122 years later.
Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 280044
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
844 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...Scattered showers and isolated storms over the Treasure
Coast and Okeechobee County will persist through late evening.
Past midnight any precip should remain limited to the coast as
low level E/NE flow between ridge to the north and newly formed
TD 2 well east of the area, continues to transport isolated to
scattered showers onshore. Greatest coverage of this shower
activity should remain south of Melbourne. Temperatures will
remain quite mild overnight with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s
over much of the region. Updated the forecast to modify rain
chances and cloud cover for the rest of the evening, based on
latest radar/satellite imagery.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions most likely from
KVRB-KSUA through tonight with ongoing shower/iso storm activity
and any additional onshore moving showers overnight. May be drier
tomorrow than currently forecast for Friday based on latest model
runs. However kept VCSH in the forecast mainly for the interior
later in the afternoon, where local models indicate isolated
showers possible along the sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...Newly formed TD 2 well east of the waters and ridge to
the north will continue a E/NE flow over the waters tonight, around
10 to 15 knots. Seas will continue to range around 4 to 5 feet.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Weitlich
RADAR/IMPACT WX...Cristaldi




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280012 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
812 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...Atlantic showers expected to continue overnight...

.UPDATE...
Low topped, tropical showers with an isolated embedded
thunderstorm here or there continue to push along the east
northeasterly flow across southern Florida this evening. The
forecast captures things quite well with activity over Southwest
Florida expected to push offshore over the coming hours and
activity expected to linger through the overnight along the
Atlantic coast. Updated zones have been transmitted to change PoP
mentions from afternoon values to evening and overnight values.
Have a wonderful evening!

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 725 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

AVIATION...

Vfr. Moist low level easterly flow will keep isolated to scattered
showers ongoing near east coast airports tonight into tomorrow,
so will mention VCSH at east coast sites through the TAF period.
Numerous showers currently near APF will diminish by 02Z, with dry
conditions expected until VCSH returns Saturday afternoon. East to
east-northeast winds around 5-10 knots expected for east coast
airports through the TAF period, with north to northeast winds at
APF becoming westerly with seabreeze by midday Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

.Memorial Day Weekend: Tropical Depression #2 impacts appear
minimal for southern Florida...

DISCUSSION...
Increased moisture today is allowing some better coverage of
convection this afternoon. As the east flow has collided with the
Gulf sea breeze over the Everglades, some thunderstorms have
developed. As the afternoon continues, coverage may increase as
boundary collisions spur more convection. Cannot rule out strong
storms this afternoon and evening due to the drier air aloft.

East of the area, we continue to monitor the progress of Tropical
Depression #2. The National Hurricane Center continues to provide
their latest thoughts and analysis on hurricanes.gov. The impacts
from this potential system on southern Florida continue to be
minimal at this point in time. As the system heads towards the
coast of Georgia and the Carolinas, winds should become lighter in
our area as the gradient lessens. This should create lower seas
and reduce the RIP current risk at many area beaches.

The weak surface flow pattern will allow the diurnal sea breeze
regimes to prevail through most of the forecast period. While the
presence of the tropical system to our east and northeast could
play with the amount of available moisture each day, the general
threat should be afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
each day from the weekend into next week. We will need to monitor
the progress of any bands of convection distant from the Tropical
Depression`s center that could train over the east coast of
Florida. Summer appears to be settling in over southern Florida as
temperatures reach into the 90s, afternoon thunderstorms return,
and the waters are warming up as well.

MARINE...
We will continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Depression
#2. As the system moves towards the Carolina/Georgia coast, the
decreasing wind speed should allow seas to lower and potentially
reduce hazards for mariners over the weekend into next week. The
situation for the Atlantic waters is still somewhat variable,
highly depending on the progress of Tropical Depression #2, so
mariners should continue to monitor the latest conditions and
forecasts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 127 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

AVIATION...
An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to affect
the area to the east and northeast of PBI. This has brought light
showers to the area, and looks to do so through the afternoon and
possibly the evening hours. have went ahead and added VCSH and a
tempo for SHRA and some BKN cigs to sites from KFLL north, but
maintained MVFR to VFR conditions through the TAF period. The wind
will drop off this evening in many areas to light and variable,
and may not pick up again tomorrow until late morning, even early
afternoon. APF however, is an exception. Models are indicating a
Gulf sea breeze will still develop and turn the wind at APF to the
west this afternoon. However, with no signal of its development
yet, have kept it out, and maintained the easterly wind through
the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  72  85  73  86 /  40  40  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  75  87  75  87 /  30  40  30  40
Miami            74  89  74  88 /  30  40  40  40
Naples           71  88  72  87 /  40  50  40  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Update...02/RAG
Aviation...99/SS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 272325
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
725 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.AVIATION...

Vfr. Moist low level easterly flow will keep isolated to scattered
showers ongoing near east coast airports tonight into tomorrow,
so will mention VCSH at east coast sites through the TAF period.
Numerous showers currently near APF will diminish by 02Z, with dry
conditions expected until VCSH returns Saturday afternoon. East to
east-northeast winds around 5-10 knots expected for east coast
airports through the TAF period, with north to northeast winds at
APF becoming westerly with seabreeze by midday Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

..Memorial Day Weekend: Tropical Depression #2 impacts appear
minimal for southern Florida...

DISCUSSION...
Increased moisture today is allowing some better coverage of
convection this afternoon. As the east flow has collided with the
Gulf sea breeze over the Everglades, some thunderstorms have
developed. As the afternoon continues, coverage may increase as
boundary collisions spur more convection. Cannot rule out strong
storms this afternoon and evening due to the drier air aloft.

East of the area, we continue to monitor the progress of Tropical
Depression #2. The National Hurricane Center continues to provide
their latest thoughts and analysis on hurricanes.gov. The impacts
from this potential system on southern Florida continue to be
minimal at this point in time. As the system heads towards the
coast of Georgia and the Carolinas, winds should become lighter in
our area as the gradient lessens. This should create lower seas
and reduce the RIP current risk at many area beaches.

The weak surface flow pattern will allow the diurnal sea breeze
regimes to prevail through most of the forecast period. While the
presence of the tropical system to our east and northeast could
play with the amount of available moisture each day, the general
threat should be afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
each day from the weekend into next week. We will need to monitor
the progress of any bands of convection distant from the Tropical
Depression`s center that could train over the east coast of
Florida. Summer appears to be settling in over southern Florida as
temperatures reach into the 90s, afternoon thunderstorms return,
and the waters are warming up as well.

MARINE...
We will continue to monitor the progress of Tropical Depression
#2. As the system moves towards the Carolina/Georgia coast, the
decreasing wind speed should allow seas to lower and potentially
reduce hazards for mariners over the weekend into next week. The
situation for the Atlantic waters is still somewhat variable,
highly depending on the progress of Tropical Depression #2, so
mariners should continue to monitor the latest conditions and
forecasts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 127 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

AVIATION...
An area of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues to affect
the area to the east and northeast of PBI. This has brought light
showers to the area, and looks to do so through the afternoon and
possibly the evening hours. have went ahead and added VCSH and a
tempo for SHRA and some BKN cigs to sites from KFLL north, but
maintained MVFR to VFR conditions through the TAF period. The wind
will drop off this evening in many areas to light and variable,
and may not pick up again tomorrow until late morning, even early
afternoon. APF however, is an exception. Models are indicating a
Gulf sea breeze will still develop and turn the wind at APF to the
west this afternoon. However, with no signal of its development
yet, have kept it out, and maintained the easterly wind through
the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  72  85  73  86 /  40  40  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  75  87  75  87 /  30  40  30  40
Miami            74  89  74  88 /  30  40  40  40
Naples           71  88  72  87 /  40  50  40  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02/RG
LONG TERM....02/RG
AVIATION...99/SS




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