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000
FXUS62 KTBW 281426
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1026 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT COOL MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUING TO BRING RELATIVELY COOL
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH WHICH IS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THUS ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE
FORECAST LOOK OK WITH NO MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN SHIFTS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  48  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  69  56  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 281426
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1026 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT COOL MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUING TO BRING RELATIVELY COOL
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH WHICH IS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THUS ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE
FORECAST LOOK OK WITH NO MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN SHIFTS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  48  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  69  56  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 281426
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1026 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT COOL MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUING TO BRING RELATIVELY COOL
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH WHICH IS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THUS ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE
FORECAST LOOK OK WITH NO MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN SHIFTS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  48  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  69  56  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 281426
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1026 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT COOL MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUING TO BRING RELATIVELY COOL
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH WHICH IS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THUS ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE
FORECAST LOOK OK WITH NO MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN SHIFTS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  48  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  69  56  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 281426 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1026 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRATIONS TIME.

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT COOL MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUING TO BRING RELATIVELY COOL
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH WHICH IS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THUS ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE
FORECAST LOOK OK WITH NO MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN SHIFTS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  48  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  69  56  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 281426
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1026 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT COOL MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUING TO BRING RELATIVELY COOL
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH WHICH IS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THUS ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE
FORECAST LOOK OK WITH NO MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN SHIFTS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  48  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  69  56  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 281426 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1026 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRATIONS TIME.

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT COOL MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUING TO BRING RELATIVELY COOL
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH WHICH IS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THUS ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE
FORECAST LOOK OK WITH NO MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN SHIFTS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  48  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  69  56  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 281426 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1026 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXPIRATIONS TIME.

.UPDATE...
PLEASANT COOL MORNING ACROSS THE REGION WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
WITH A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND CONTINUING TO BRING RELATIVELY COOL
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH WHICH IS ABOUT
5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT UNDER
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THUS ALLOWING FOR SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSE TO THE COAST FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE
FORECAST LOOK OK WITH NO MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THEN SHIFTS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  48  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  69  56  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MARINE...14/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTAE 281358
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS AFTERNOON. MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, DO NOT
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS ENERGY, SO HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW 20
PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [453 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.


.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 281358
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS AFTERNOON. MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, DO NOT
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS ENERGY, SO HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW 20
PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [453 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.


.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 281358
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS AFTERNOON. MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, DO NOT
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS ENERGY, SO HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW 20
PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [453 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.


.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 281358
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
958 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
SUNNY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE WITH A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH STRETCHED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S THIS AFTERNOON. MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, DO NOT
EXPECT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS ENERGY, SO HAVE LEFT POPS BELOW 20
PERCENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [453 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.


.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 281348
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
948 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...
...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID SECTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST/NORTH FLOW OF COOL/DRY AIR.  TEMPS
WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SOME CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SKY TODAY...BUT AS JET AXIS SAGS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA STRAITS...THE CLOUDS SHOULD THIN AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-SUNDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEADILY EASE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WILL EXPIRE
THE NEAR SHORE ADVISORY WITH THE MORNING FORECAST UPDATE BUT KEEP AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT AS SHORT PERIOD WAVES PRODUCE POOR
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...IT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
SLIGHTLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS GOING TO
NORTHERLY AT A SOLD 15 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.  THOUGH SEA HEIGHTS WILL
GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL
STILL BE QUITE POOR ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AFTER A VERY WARM MONTH...ALL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.  PREVIOUSLY...ONLY A FEW DAYS THIS MONTH
WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...3 DAYS AT DAYTONA BEACH...2 DAYS AT
ORLANDO...ONE DAY AT MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

LASCODY/PENDERGRAST


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 281338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THICK HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS COVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...WITH THINNING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND PROJECTING TRENDS. THE THICK
CIRRUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THINNER
CIRRUS WILL HANG AROUND. SO AFTER A CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY MORNING,
EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME DIM SUN THROUGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THICKER CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS CHILLY THIS MORNING, BUT DIM SUN
SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR PROJECTED LOW-MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT FROM OUR RECORD HEAT IN PARTS OF SE FL
YESTERDAY! /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD
FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FT. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A N-NE
SFC WIND AT NAPLES/KAPF THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 281338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THICK HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS COVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...WITH THINNING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND PROJECTING TRENDS. THE THICK
CIRRUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THINNER
CIRRUS WILL HANG AROUND. SO AFTER A CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY MORNING,
EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME DIM SUN THROUGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THICKER CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS CHILLY THIS MORNING, BUT DIM SUN
SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR PROJECTED LOW-MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT FROM OUR RECORD HEAT IN PARTS OF SE FL
YESTERDAY! /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD
FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FT. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A N-NE
SFC WIND AT NAPLES/KAPF THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 281335
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 900 AM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A DEEP COLD CORE FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE CONUS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO...CUBA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THIS OF COURSE INCLUDES SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. A 75 TO 100 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET IS IN PLACE
AT 250 MB AND STREAMS FROM ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN THENCE TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM...DETECTS THE
CENTER OF A NEAR 1030 MB COLD SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR MILWAUKEE.
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT...A LATE WINTER LIKE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 997 MB SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING IN THE GULF STREAM
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...TO SOUTHWARDS
AND BISECTING CENTRAL CUBA AND TO JUST OFF OF BELIZIAN COAST.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS AT FL025-030 WITH THICK
CIRROSTRATUS WAY ABOVE THAT IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET FOUND AOA FL200.
GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD THICKNESS ADVECTION
(SURFACE UP TO ~ 875 MB)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE UPPER KEYS TO AROUND 70 IN THE LOWER
KEYS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. NATURALLY...RADAR IS DEVOID OF ANY
ECHOES IN SERVICE AREA RANGE ATTM. THE 12Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A
STRONG NORTH FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 850 MB...WITH DEEP WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ABOVE THAT. COLUMNAR PWAT WAS ONLY AT
.53 INCHES RENDERING THIS A MODERATELY DRY SOUNDING.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...KEYS WILL REMAIN BENEATH DEEP AND DRY
MID AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRUSION
OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET
WHICH WILL KEEP SCT-BROKEN CIRROSTRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 70 ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE KEYS DESPITE THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RISING THRU THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT BY MID AFTERNOON...OWING THE THE
IMPACTS OF HEAT TROUGHING AS WE ARE NOW BEYOND THE EQUINOX AND
INSOLATION IS HIGH OVER LAND AT OUR LATITUDE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS ON THE UPDATE OWING TO THE CIRROSTRATUS AND
WIND DIRECTION NOW EAST OF NORTH EVERYWHERE. THATS IT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS...AND WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE SHALLOWS OF FLORIDA BAY AND
THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS INSIDE
THE FIVE FATHOM LINE OWING TO HEAT TROUGHING ON THE PENINSULA.
ESSENTIALLY THOUGH...NORTH WINDS ARE PRESENTLY AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE MIDDLE KEYS
GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION ATTM. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SURGES AND
LULLING IN THE WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
COALESCES ON SUNDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/29TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS...WITH PERIODIC CEILINGS NEAR 25000 AND LOW
CLOUDS BETWEEN 030-035. NORTH CROSSWINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
SLACKEN ESPECIALLY AT MARATHON TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1994...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 88 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
MARCH 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 21 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................APA
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR...........VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 281335
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
930 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 900 AM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A DEEP COLD CORE FULL LATITUDINAL TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE CONUS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO...CUBA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THIS OF COURSE INCLUDES SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. A 75 TO 100 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET IS IN PLACE
AT 250 MB AND STREAMS FROM ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN THENCE TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM...DETECTS THE
CENTER OF A NEAR 1030 MB COLD SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NEAR MILWAUKEE.
WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT...A LATE WINTER LIKE COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 997 MB SURFACE LOW IS DEEPENING IN THE GULF STREAM
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...TO SOUTHWARDS
AND BISECTING CENTRAL CUBA AND TO JUST OFF OF BELIZIAN COAST.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OWING TO SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION STRATOCUMULUS AT FL025-030 WITH THICK
CIRROSTRATUS WAY ABOVE THAT IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET FOUND AOA FL200.
GIVEN THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD THICKNESS ADVECTION
(SURFACE UP TO ~ 875 MB)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE UPPER KEYS TO AROUND 70 IN THE LOWER
KEYS...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. NATURALLY...RADAR IS DEVOID OF ANY
ECHOES IN SERVICE AREA RANGE ATTM. THE 12Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A
STRONG NORTH FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 850 MB...WITH DEEP WEST
TO SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ABOVE THAT. COLUMNAR PWAT WAS ONLY AT
.53 INCHES RENDERING THIS A MODERATELY DRY SOUNDING.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...KEYS WILL REMAIN BENEATH DEEP AND DRY
MID AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRUSION
OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET
WHICH WILL KEEP SCT-BROKEN CIRROSTRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 70 ACROSS THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE KEYS DESPITE THIS HIGH CLOUDINESS...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RISING THRU THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS BY LATE IN
THE DAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT BY MID AFTERNOON...OWING THE THE
IMPACTS OF HEAT TROUGHING AS WE ARE NOW BEYOND THE EQUINOX AND
INSOLATION IS HIGH OVER LAND AT OUR LATITUDE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS ON THE UPDATE OWING TO THE CIRROSTRATUS AND
WIND DIRECTION NOW EAST OF NORTH EVERYWHERE. THATS IT.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS...AND WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE SHALLOWS OF FLORIDA BAY AND
THE IMMEDIATE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS INSIDE
THE FIVE FATHOM LINE OWING TO HEAT TROUGHING ON THE PENINSULA.
ESSENTIALLY THOUGH...NORTH WINDS ARE PRESENTLY AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
GUSTY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE MIDDLE KEYS
GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTION ATTM. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SURGES AND
LULLING IN THE WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
COALESCES ON SUNDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/29TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS...WITH PERIODIC CEILINGS NEAR 25000 AND LOW
CLOUDS BETWEEN 030-035. NORTH CROSSWINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL
SLACKEN ESPECIALLY AT MARATHON TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1994...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 88 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
MARCH 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 21 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................APA
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR...........VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 281257
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
857 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...DESPITE FULL SUN...COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
DOWN TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE WITH HIGH TEMPS 59-62
SE GA...60-65 I-10 CORRIDOR...MID 60S FURTHER S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY OFFSHORE COMPONENT THRU
AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL
INDICATE CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE
IN THE DAY. SCEC FOR NEARSHORE COMPONENT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  34  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  61  44  60  46 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  64  38  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  64  50  60  49 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  66  37  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 281257
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
857 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...DESPITE FULL SUN...COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
DOWN TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE WITH HIGH TEMPS 59-62
SE GA...60-65 I-10 CORRIDOR...MID 60S FURTHER S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY OFFSHORE COMPONENT THRU
AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL
INDICATE CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE
IN THE DAY. SCEC FOR NEARSHORE COMPONENT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  34  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  61  44  60  46 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  64  38  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  64  50  60  49 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  66  37  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 281257
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
857 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...DESPITE FULL SUN...COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
DOWN TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE WITH HIGH TEMPS 59-62
SE GA...60-65 I-10 CORRIDOR...MID 60S FURTHER S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY OFFSHORE COMPONENT THRU
AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL
INDICATE CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE
IN THE DAY. SCEC FOR NEARSHORE COMPONENT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  34  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  61  44  60  46 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  64  38  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  64  50  60  49 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  66  37  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 281257
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
857 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...DESPITE FULL SUN...COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS
DOWN TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS FINE WITH HIGH TEMPS 59-62
SE GA...60-65 I-10 CORRIDOR...MID 60S FURTHER S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY OFFSHORE COMPONENT THRU
AFTERNOON WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE WATERS. WILL
INDICATE CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE
IN THE DAY. SCEC FOR NEARSHORE COMPONENT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  34  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  61  44  60  46 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  64  38  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  64  50  60  49 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  66  37  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD
FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FT. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A N-NE
SFC WIND AT NAPLES/KAPF THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/GREGORIA
LONG TERM....57/GREGORIA
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD
FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FT. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A N-NE
SFC WIND AT NAPLES/KAPF THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/GREGORIA
LONG TERM....57/GREGORIA
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA



000
FXUS62 KMFL 281133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD
FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FT. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A N-NE
SFC WIND AT NAPLES/KAPF THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/GREGORIA
LONG TERM....57/GREGORIA
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD
FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FT. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A N-NE
SFC WIND AT NAPLES/KAPF THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/GREGORIA
LONG TERM....57/GREGORIA
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA



000
FXUS62 KTAE 280853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH HIGH TEMPS EVEN APPROACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AT TALLAHASSEE ON 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, TODAY WILL BE A
RUDE AWAKENING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE VERY WARM
WEATHER. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ALSO, BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
CWA OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THIS ENERGY WILL BE STARVED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SO THE CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 10 KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLIM AT BEST OVER SE AL, BUT THERE COULD BE A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE JUST TO THE NW OF OUR CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR APALACHEE
     BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
     RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 280853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH HIGH TEMPS EVEN APPROACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AT TALLAHASSEE ON 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, TODAY WILL BE A
RUDE AWAKENING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE VERY WARM
WEATHER. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ALSO, BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
CWA OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THIS ENERGY WILL BE STARVED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SO THE CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 10 KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLIM AT BEST OVER SE AL, BUT THERE COULD BE A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE JUST TO THE NW OF OUR CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR APALACHEE
     BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
     RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 280853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH HIGH TEMPS EVEN APPROACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AT TALLAHASSEE ON 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, TODAY WILL BE A
RUDE AWAKENING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE VERY WARM
WEATHER. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ALSO, BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
CWA OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THIS ENERGY WILL BE STARVED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SO THE CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 10 KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLIM AT BEST OVER SE AL, BUT THERE COULD BE A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE JUST TO THE NW OF OUR CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR APALACHEE
     BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
     RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 280853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH HIGH TEMPS EVEN APPROACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AT TALLAHASSEE ON 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, TODAY WILL BE A
RUDE AWAKENING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE VERY WARM
WEATHER. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ALSO, BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
CWA OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THIS ENERGY WILL BE STARVED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SO THE CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 10 KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLIM AT BEST OVER SE AL, BUT THERE COULD BE A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE JUST TO THE NW OF OUR CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR APALACHEE
     BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
     RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 280853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH HIGH TEMPS EVEN APPROACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AT TALLAHASSEE ON 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, TODAY WILL BE A
RUDE AWAKENING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE VERY WARM
WEATHER. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ALSO, BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
CWA OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THIS ENERGY WILL BE STARVED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SO THE CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 10 KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLIM AT BEST OVER SE AL, BUT THERE COULD BE A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE JUST TO THE NW OF OUR CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR APALACHEE
     BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
     RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 280853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER NUMEROUS DAYS OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH HIGH TEMPS EVEN APPROACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK AT TALLAHASSEE ON 3 SEPARATE OCCASIONS, TODAY WILL BE A
RUDE AWAKENING FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO THE VERY WARM
WEATHER. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LATE MARCH SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION,
HIGH TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ALSO, BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON A PIECE OF
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROF, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY SWINGING EASTWARD THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE
CWA OVER TIME. HOWEVER, THIS ENERGY WILL BE STARVED FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SO THE CHANCES OF A LIGHT SHOWER FROM 10 KFT
CEILINGS WILL BE VERY SLIM AT BEST OVER SE AL, BUT THERE COULD BE A
15-20 PERCENT CHANCE JUST TO THE NW OF OUR CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH GEORGIA FOR
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. TEMPS
WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY RESULTING IN
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS. MODELS SHOW CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
WESTERN GULF IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THESE
FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL LEVELS WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S AND LOWS NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ABOVE
10 KFT FROM NW TO SE OVER THE TERMINALS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. NW WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON FRIDAY,
BUT MAY STILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AGAIN ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EDT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE LATER TODAY. WINDS
WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DESPITE THE VERY COOL AIR OVER THE REGION TODAY, THE VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL DROP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO RED FLAG
LEVELS FOR 4 TO 5 HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ONLY WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND IS
FORECAST TO REACH AN ERC OF 37, SO A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS COUNTY ONLY FOR TODAY. ON SUNDAY, RH VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS EVEN LONGER FOR A LARGER
PORTION OF NORTH FLORIDA, AND WITH ERC VALUES STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AND JACKSON AND CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. OVER OUR ALABAMA AND GEORGIA COUNTIES, RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
DIFFERENT CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAIN RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON MONDAY...HOWEVER TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH ALL RIVERS BELOW FLOOD
STAGE THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  39  68  46  78 /   0  10   0  10  20
PANAMA CITY   63  45  65  56  75 /   0  10   0  10  10
DOTHAN        59  38  65  50  77 /  10   0  10  20  30
ALBANY        59  36  64  47  77 /  10   0   0  20  30
VALDOSTA      63  38  68  44  76 /   0  10   0  10  20
CROSS CITY    65  38  69  42  76 /   0  10   0   0  10
APALACHICOLA  65  45  65  54  74 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR CALHOUN-COASTAL DIXIE-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     JEFFERSON-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-INLAND
     DIXIE-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND JEFFERSON-INLAND TAYLOR-INLAND
     WAKULLA-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-LEON-LIBERTY-MADISON.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR APALACHEE
     BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
     RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
     TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
     SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS
     FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280835
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...
...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY...

CURRENT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUD SHIELD WAS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND CLEARS MARTIN COUNTY
DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN RIDGES
SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. TRACKS SOUTHEAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STEERS THE SURFACE
HIGH SOUTHEAST TO VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA AND RIDGES OVER
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ADVECTS A MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS SAT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S VOLUSIA AND NORTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SUN MORNING LOWS OF MID AND
UPPER 40S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
SINCE SAT MORNING.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PUSH SE AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NW WIND FLOW TO VEER TO THE N AND NE. CONTINUED
DRY AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND TREASURE COAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST SO NOT A GREAT
BEACH DAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...AS COLD IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUT
PRESSURE ON THE RECORD LOW AT MELBOURNE (44/1941) AND ESPECIALLY VERO BEACH
(46/2013).

MON-FRI...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END OF A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AND WASH OUT. THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER
THE NORTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S INTERIOR
AND LOW 80S COAST BY FRI. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
APPROACH THEN CROSS FL WED INTO THU SO HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL SHOWER CHANCES THEN.
NO SEVERE WEATHER (OR EVEN THUNDER) IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...BUOY 009 CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME AND COOLER AIR OVERTOP RELATIVELY
WARMER WATER KEEPS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) OFFSHORE LOOKS GOOD.
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SCA IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE MID TO LATE MORNING.
WINDS MOST LIKELY AROUND 20 KNOTS BEYOND A FEW MILES OF THE COAST
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE NEARSHORE SCA UNTIL MID LATE MORNING AND
EITHER REISSUE OR DROP THE SCA BASED ON BUOY WIND TRENDS.

GRADIENT OPENS UP ENOUGH ALLOWING THE WIND TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.

SUN...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR WITH NORTH WINDS 15 KNOTS
PRODUCING CHOPPY CONDITIONS BOTH ON THE ATLANTIC (ESP THE GULF STREAM)
AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

MON-WED...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD COLLAPSES MON. THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE ADJ ATLC WATERS TUE
AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
E-SE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ATLC HIGH
BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  51  65  47 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  72  49  72  48 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  71  47  69  47 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  70  47  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  71  48  71  49 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  69  49  69  48 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  71  51  71  50 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  70  46  71  46 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280835
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...
...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY...

CURRENT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUD SHIELD WAS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND CLEARS MARTIN COUNTY
DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN RIDGES
SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. TRACKS SOUTHEAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STEERS THE SURFACE
HIGH SOUTHEAST TO VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA AND RIDGES OVER
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ADVECTS A MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS SAT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S VOLUSIA AND NORTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SUN MORNING LOWS OF MID AND
UPPER 40S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
SINCE SAT MORNING.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PUSH SE AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NW WIND FLOW TO VEER TO THE N AND NE. CONTINUED
DRY AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND TREASURE COAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST SO NOT A GREAT
BEACH DAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...AS COLD IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUT
PRESSURE ON THE RECORD LOW AT MELBOURNE (44/1941) AND ESPECIALLY VERO BEACH
(46/2013).

MON-FRI...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END OF A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AND WASH OUT. THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER
THE NORTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S INTERIOR
AND LOW 80S COAST BY FRI. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
APPROACH THEN CROSS FL WED INTO THU SO HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL SHOWER CHANCES THEN.
NO SEVERE WEATHER (OR EVEN THUNDER) IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...BUOY 009 CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME AND COOLER AIR OVERTOP RELATIVELY
WARMER WATER KEEPS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) OFFSHORE LOOKS GOOD.
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SCA IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE MID TO LATE MORNING.
WINDS MOST LIKELY AROUND 20 KNOTS BEYOND A FEW MILES OF THE COAST
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE NEARSHORE SCA UNTIL MID LATE MORNING AND
EITHER REISSUE OR DROP THE SCA BASED ON BUOY WIND TRENDS.

GRADIENT OPENS UP ENOUGH ALLOWING THE WIND TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.

SUN...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR WITH NORTH WINDS 15 KNOTS
PRODUCING CHOPPY CONDITIONS BOTH ON THE ATLANTIC (ESP THE GULF STREAM)
AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

MON-WED...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD COLLAPSES MON. THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE ADJ ATLC WATERS TUE
AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
E-SE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ATLC HIGH
BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  51  65  47 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  72  49  72  48 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  71  47  69  47 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  70  47  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  71  48  71  49 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  69  49  69  48 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  71  51  71  50 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  70  46  71  46 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMLB 280835
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND...
...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY...

CURRENT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE SOLID CLOUD SHIELD WAS MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND CLEARS MARTIN COUNTY
DURING THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN RIDGES
SOUTH TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. TRACKS SOUTHEAST.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STEERS THE SURFACE
HIGH SOUTHEAST TO VIRGINIA...THE CAROLINAS...GEORGIA AND RIDGES OVER
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW ADVECTS A MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS SAT RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S VOLUSIA AND NORTHEAST LAKE COUNTIES TO THE LOW 70S FOR
THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE SUN MORNING LOWS OF MID AND
UPPER 40S LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
SINCE SAT MORNING.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO PUSH SE AND OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NW WIND FLOW TO VEER TO THE N AND NE. CONTINUED
DRY AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST TO THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND TREASURE COAST. IT WILL BE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST SO NOT A GREAT
BEACH DAY. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S...AS COLD IF NOT A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD PUT
PRESSURE ON THE RECORD LOW AT MELBOURNE (44/1941) AND ESPECIALLY VERO BEACH
(46/2013).

MON-FRI...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN OF RIDGE IN THE WEST AND TROUGH
IN THE EAST WILL BREAK DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL FLOW.
AT THE SFC...THE TAIL END OF A MUCH WEAKER FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
TUE AND WASH OUT. THEN THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD WEST OVER
THE NORTH/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE MODERATING
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS CREEPING BACK ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID 80S INTERIOR
AND LOW 80S COAST BY FRI. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
APPROACH THEN CROSS FL WED INTO THU SO HAVE MAINTAINED SMALL SHOWER CHANCES THEN.
NO SEVERE WEATHER (OR EVEN THUNDER) IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...BUOY 009 CURRENTLY RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
25 KNOTS AND SEAS AROUND 4 FEET. THE COMBINATION OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINING ABOUT THE SAME AND COOLER AIR OVERTOP RELATIVELY
WARMER WATER KEEPS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING. CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) OFFSHORE LOOKS GOOD.
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SCA IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE MID TO LATE MORNING.
WINDS MOST LIKELY AROUND 20 KNOTS BEYOND A FEW MILES OF THE COAST
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE NEARSHORE SCA UNTIL MID LATE MORNING AND
EITHER REISSUE OR DROP THE SCA BASED ON BUOY WIND TRENDS.

GRADIENT OPENS UP ENOUGH ALLOWING THE WIND TO DROP BELOW 20 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.

SUN...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR WITH NORTH WINDS 15 KNOTS
PRODUCING CHOPPY CONDITIONS BOTH ON THE ATLANTIC (ESP THE GULF STREAM)
AND THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

MON-WED...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND PRES GRAD COLLAPSES MON. THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE ADJ ATLC WATERS TUE
AND PRODUCE A PERIOD OF NW-N WINDS 10-15 KNOTS. THEN A MORE PERSISTENT
E-SE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS ATLC HIGH
BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS 2-3 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  51  65  47 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  72  49  72  48 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  71  47  69  47 /   0  10   0   0
VRB  70  47  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
LEE  71  48  71  49 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  69  49  69  48 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  71  51  71  50 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  70  46  71  46 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLAGLER
     BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMFL 280804
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WTIH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 280804
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WTIH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280804
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WTIH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 280804
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WTIH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KTBW 280741
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
341 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - RIDGING REACHED FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE
CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM
QUEBEC DOWN THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SPRAWLED DOWN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST TRAILED A COLD FRONT DOWN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
CUBA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST AND FLATTENS SOME WHILE THE
TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES OUT OVER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. AS A
RESULT THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS. THE GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE GULF TODAY THEN TAKES A SOUTHEASTWARD TACK...SETTLING IN
ACROSS FL FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

THE FORECAST IS FOR CLEAR/SUNNY SKIES AND DRY. SOME ROBUST
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...MAINLY ON THE GULF...TODAY WILL KEEP SEAS AND
WAVES ELEVATED WITH A HIGH TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL ALTHOUGH A
WARMING TRENDS BEGIN SUN AFTERNOON. THE LOWS SUN MORNING ACROSS
NORTHERN LEVY COUNTY WILL BE IN THE MID 30S AND COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED FROST. BUT WIND SPEEDS AND DRIER AIR WOULD ARGUE AGAINST
WIDESPREAD FROST.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE AREA TO START THE
WORK WEEK WITH A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ALMOST BACK UP TO NORMAL VALUES. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD THE AREA ON TUESDAY BUT WILL STALL WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING ZONAL. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
FOR THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW MODELS HANDLE
THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR NOW
WHICH SHOWS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO
NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND THEN RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. &&

.AVIATION...
28/06Z-29.06Z. VFR AS FEW-SCT CIRRUS GIVE WAY TO SKC. NW AND
NORTH WINDS BACK AND BECOME GUSTY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE GULF TODAY WILL KEEP WINDS AND
SEAS IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE FOR SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT TOWARD THE STATE WITH A
RELAXING GRADIENT SUN. THE HIGH MOVES OUT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BUT RIDGES BACK TO THE GULF
WITH BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PRECLUDE ANY FOG.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DROPS TO THE MID 20 PERCENT RANGE TODAY WITH
SOME ROBUST WINDS...HOWEVER RECENT RAINFALL PRODUCED LOW ERC
VALUES SO NO WARNINGS ARE NEEDED. SIMILAR LOW HUMIDITY IS
EXPECTED SUN BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS. THE WINDS WILL BE ROBUST
ENOUGH TODAY FOR SOME HIGHER DISPERSION VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  48  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  75  52  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  50  72  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  55  70  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING
     FOR CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT
     20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KKEY 280711
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
311 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
FROM OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM AND RECENT RADAR IMAGES WE SEE THE SURFACE
FRONT ON THE KEY WEST DOORSTEP. NAPLES HAS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WITH THE KEY WEST ASOS AND THE WFO RSOIS REPORTING NORTHWEST WINDS AT
THIS HOUR. GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST THREE
GUST OBSERVATIONS AS FOLLOWS...PULASKI SHOAL REPORTED 56 MPH...SMITH
SHOAL CAME IN WITH 53 MPH...AND A COOP STATION ON CUDJOE KEY MEASURED
49 MPH...HONORABLE MENTION GOES TO THE KEY WEST COAST GUARD STATION
WITH A 47 MPH GUST. THERE IS SOME LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...BUT THE ISLAND CHAIN HAS SEEN THE LAST OF
THE RAINFALL WITH THE FROPA.

.FORECAST...
AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND FRESHEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT AROUND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LULL OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SOME DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
ARRIVE...WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH COOLER...WILL MODIFY QUICKLY DUE TO THE WARM WATERS
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS COMBINED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WILL TURN WINDS MORE NORTHEAST
THEN EAST...INCREASING MOISTURE AND CUTTING OFF ANY COOLER AIR
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL GET SOME
REINFORCEMENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHICH WILL FRESHEN WINDS AGAIN
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LARGE
UPPER LOW TREKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ADDS ANOTHER ROUND OF
REINFORCEMENTS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BRIEFLY FRESHENING WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. THE ONLY MENTION OF RAIN WILL BE AS WINDS TURN MORE
EASTERLY ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS...AND
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE KEYS AT THIS HOUR...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THIS MORNING...TURNING MORE
NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SURGES AND LULLING
IN THE WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES COALESCES ON
SUNDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL VEER TO NORTH AND DECREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1994...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 88 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
MARCH 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 21 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  62  75  65 / 0 0 0 -
MARATHON  73  62  76  65 / 0 0 0 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280711
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
311 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
FROM OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM AND RECENT RADAR IMAGES WE SEE THE SURFACE
FRONT ON THE KEY WEST DOORSTEP. NAPLES HAS NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
WITH THE KEY WEST ASOS AND THE WFO RSOIS REPORTING NORTHWEST WINDS AT
THIS HOUR. GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT WITH THE HIGHEST THREE
GUST OBSERVATIONS AS FOLLOWS...PULASKI SHOAL REPORTED 56 MPH...SMITH
SHOAL CAME IN WITH 53 MPH...AND A COOP STATION ON CUDJOE KEY MEASURED
49 MPH...HONORABLE MENTION GOES TO THE KEY WEST COAST GUARD STATION
WITH A 47 MPH GUST. THERE IS SOME LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN OVER THE
EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...BUT THE ISLAND CHAIN HAS SEEN THE LAST OF
THE RAINFALL WITH THE FROPA.

.FORECAST...
AS THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND FRESHEN DUE TO THE GRADIENT AROUND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
HIGHEST WINDS WILL EXTEND THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LULL OVERNIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY. BEHIND THE FRONT SOME DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
ARRIVE...WITH LOWER DEW POINTS AND SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST FEW DAYS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES
ALTHOUGH COOLER...WILL MODIFY QUICKLY DUE TO THE WARM WATERS
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS COMBINED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WILL TURN WINDS MORE NORTHEAST
THEN EAST...INCREASING MOISTURE AND CUTTING OFF ANY COOLER AIR
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL GET SOME
REINFORCEMENT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WHICH WILL FRESHEN WINDS AGAIN
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE STRETCHING EASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A LARGE
UPPER LOW TREKS ACROSS SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ADDS ANOTHER ROUND OF
REINFORCEMENTS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE TRAPPED OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...BRIEFLY FRESHENING WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. THE ONLY MENTION OF RAIN WILL BE AS WINDS TURN MORE
EASTERLY ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS...AND
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE KEYS AT THIS HOUR...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN ITS WAKE. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH THIS MORNING...TURNING MORE
NORTH BY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SURGES AND LULLING
IN THE WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
REQUIRED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN STATES COALESCES ON
SUNDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL VEER TO NORTH AND DECREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1994...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 88 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
MARCH 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 21 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  62  75  65 / 0 0 0 -
MARATHON  73  62  76  65 / 0 0 0 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KJAX 280703
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
303 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME RESIDUAL CIRRUS SOUTH AND EAST OF JAX
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A VERY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CLIPPING
THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WITH LAYER MOISTURE
VERY LIMITED...SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS MAY RESULT...BUT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL PREVAIL. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IN N/NW SURFACE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY ONLY RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S. WITH WINDS
IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE...A RATHER COOL DAY FOR LATE MARCH IS IN
THE OFFING. WINDS WILL DECREASE TNGT...ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR INLAND
LOCATIONS...WITH MAINLY 40S CLOSE TO THE COAST. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FROST INLAND LATE TNGT/EARLY SUNDAY.
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS A LITTLE
MILDER THAN SATURDAY INLAND...AND ACTUALLY A BIT COOLER CLOSER TO
THE COAST AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SLIDE
INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN
MOVE TO THE SOUTH TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT SO KEEPING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO LOW END CHANCE.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A EXTENDED
PERIOD OF FLOW RANGING FROM SOUTHWEST/SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH WARM
ADVECTION. A SERIES OF 500MB DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THIS UPCOMING WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT PERIODS WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER. WHILE MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY...WILL NOT
BE ABLE TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT SHOWERS AT ANY POINT. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS ARE NEARING PEAK AS THE COLD FRONT IS CROSSING SOUTH
FLORIDA. WITH WINDS NEARSHORE UNDER 20 KNOTS...WILL CANCEL THE
SCA...WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING OFFSHORE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH BENIGN CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  34  64  43 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  61  44  60  46 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  64  38  63  43 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  64  50  60  49 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  66  37  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  39  69  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 280541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  55  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  59  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            76  60  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           75  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  55  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  59  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            76  60  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           75  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 280541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  55  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  59  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            76  60  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           75  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 280541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  55  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  59  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            76  60  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           75  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 280541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  55  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  59  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            76  60  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           75  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 280541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  55  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  59  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            76  60  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           75  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KKEY 280244
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1044 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A ROBUST COLD FRONT IS MARCHING THROUGH THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED SWATH OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY SWEPT SOUTHEASTWARD OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A BLAST OF 40 TO
50 MPH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS. PULASKI SHOAL REPORTED A 49
KNOT GUST...AND SMITH SHOAL...46 KNOTS. ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ARE NOW LOCATED FROM THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE FLORIDA STRAITS
OFF OF THE UPPER KEYS...TO THE DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF THE
MARQUESAS KEYS. ONLY LIGHT RAIN REMAINS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED A COUPLE DEGREES...DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN
THE UPPER 60S...DOWN FROM THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH WINDS
WILL HOLD OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE KEYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AND BECOME WINDY. THE HEAVY RAIN FOR THE KEYS HAS ENDED...AND ONLY A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. WILL
SHAVE POPS DOWN INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...AS THE SWATH OF RAIN
ACROSS OUR GULF SIDE WATERS...AND WESTERN MOST FLORIDA STRAITS IS
DIMINISHING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
WITH DEW POINTS SETTLING DOWN TO NEAR 60.

&&

.MARINE...
BROKEN LINES OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE UPPER KEYS...TO THE
DISTANT STRAITS SOUTH OF REBECCA SHOAL. THIS ACTIVITY IS RACING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS. THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...LIKELY UNTIL IT CLEARS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD OF ALL ATLANTIC ZONES. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN RUSH
THROUGH ALL KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL KEYS WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 22 AND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 05 AND 07Z.
THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CROSS WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075..

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280244
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1044 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A ROBUST COLD FRONT IS MARCHING THROUGH THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN ASSOCIATED SWATH OF PREFRONTAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY SWEPT SOUTHEASTWARD OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A BLAST OF 40 TO
50 MPH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS. PULASKI SHOAL REPORTED A 49
KNOT GUST...AND SMITH SHOAL...46 KNOTS. ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ARE NOW LOCATED FROM THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE FLORIDA STRAITS
OFF OF THE UPPER KEYS...TO THE DISTANT FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF THE
MARQUESAS KEYS. ONLY LIGHT RAIN REMAINS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED A COUPLE DEGREES...DEW POINTS ARE NOW IN
THE UPPER 60S...DOWN FROM THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH WINDS
WILL HOLD OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE KEYS. SURFACE WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AND BECOME WINDY. THE HEAVY RAIN FOR THE KEYS HAS ENDED...AND ONLY A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD FRONT. WILL
SHAVE POPS DOWN INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY...AS THE SWATH OF RAIN
ACROSS OUR GULF SIDE WATERS...AND WESTERN MOST FLORIDA STRAITS IS
DIMINISHING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S
WITH DEW POINTS SETTLING DOWN TO NEAR 60.

&&

.MARINE...
BROKEN LINES OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE UPPER KEYS...TO THE
DISTANT STRAITS SOUTH OF REBECCA SHOAL. THIS ACTIVITY IS RACING EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 35 KNOTS. THIS ACTIVITY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...LIKELY UNTIL IT CLEARS SOUTH AND
EASTWARD OF ALL ATLANTIC ZONES. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN RUSH
THROUGH ALL KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL KEYS WATERS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 22 AND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 05 AND 07Z.
THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CROSS WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL KEYS WATERS
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075..

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KTBW 280153
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
953 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTER REVIEWING LATEST HI-RES WIND GUIDANCE AND RECENT OBS...HAVE
ELECTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...VALID UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...LINGERING SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS SRN ZONES WITH FEW
EMBEDDED SHRA IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR REGION
ASSOC W/ VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TSTMS REMAIN ACROSS DEEP S
FL AND KEYS. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE CLEARING LINE ON THE SAT
ACROSS NATURE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE
PAN HANDLE WHERE SECOND DEW POINT GRADIENT AND WIND SURGE EXISTS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OUT OF THE REGION AND WILL BE SE OF
THE AREA COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL USHER MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DID HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO
SLOW PROGRESSION A BIT AND KEEP HIGH POPS IN FAR SOUTH THROUGH
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ARE IN FORECAST AND NOW OCCURRING AT
42036. BAYS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE SCA...BUT MIGHT GET CLOSE AND
WILL BUMP WINDS UP A BIT BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE (ESP TAMPA BAY).

AVIATION...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS CEN AND SW FL WILL IMPROVE AS COLD FRONT
BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AND PERSIST FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE PAN HANDLE TO NEAR
90 IN MIAMI.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN ABOUT 160 MILES OFF OF CLEARWATER ACCORDING TO
INFRA RED SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. RAIN TO BE
OUT OF CHIEFLAND AREA BY 5 PM...OUT OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
EVENING...THEN OUT OF FORT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
FORECAST AREA.

MID-LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. UNDER THAT STEERING FLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPERATURES AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE
DAMPING OUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE STATE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH PAN HANDLE. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 27 TO 35 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED. LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ONLY AROUND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  70  51  72 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  74  51  77 /  70   0   0   0
GIF  53  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  59  70  52  72 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  48  67  41  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  69  56  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     MANATEE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
     HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CARLISLE/GITTINGER



000
FXUS62 KTBW 280153
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
953 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTER REVIEWING LATEST HI-RES WIND GUIDANCE AND RECENT OBS...HAVE
ELECTED TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR...VALID UNTIL 11Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...LINGERING SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS SRN ZONES WITH FEW
EMBEDDED SHRA IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR REGION
ASSOC W/ VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TSTMS REMAIN ACROSS DEEP S
FL AND KEYS. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE CLEARING LINE ON THE SAT
ACROSS NATURE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE
PAN HANDLE WHERE SECOND DEW POINT GRADIENT AND WIND SURGE EXISTS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OUT OF THE REGION AND WILL BE SE OF
THE AREA COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL USHER MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DID HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO
SLOW PROGRESSION A BIT AND KEEP HIGH POPS IN FAR SOUTH THROUGH
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ARE IN FORECAST AND NOW OCCURRING AT
42036. BAYS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE SCA...BUT MIGHT GET CLOSE AND
WILL BUMP WINDS UP A BIT BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE (ESP TAMPA BAY).

AVIATION...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS CEN AND SW FL WILL IMPROVE AS COLD FRONT
BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AND PERSIST FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE PAN HANDLE TO NEAR
90 IN MIAMI.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN ABOUT 160 MILES OFF OF CLEARWATER ACCORDING TO
INFRA RED SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. RAIN TO BE
OUT OF CHIEFLAND AREA BY 5 PM...OUT OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
EVENING...THEN OUT OF FORT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
FORECAST AREA.

MID-LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. UNDER THAT STEERING FLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPERATURES AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE
DAMPING OUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE STATE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH PAN HANDLE. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 27 TO 35 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED. LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ONLY AROUND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  70  51  72 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  74  51  77 /  70   0   0   0
GIF  53  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  59  70  52  72 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  48  67  41  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  69  56  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     MANATEE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR CHARLOTTE
     HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CARLISLE/GITTINGER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 280038
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
838 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AFTER PASSAGE OF TODAY`S COLD FRONT, NOTICEABLY COOLER AIR WILL
INVADE THE REGION TONIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE LOWER
TO MID 40S SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING WE HAVE
SEEN SINCE MARCH 8TH AND WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A RATHER CHILLY
ALBEIT DRY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS GUSTY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL
WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION [424 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...
AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROXIMATELY 10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING
TREND WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE
CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN
ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO FALL, MOST
LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS AROUND OR
JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN THE AMOUNT
OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS THE
EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND WOULD NOT ALLOW
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS EASTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO
ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.


.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW
RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...
ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   41  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   45  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        38  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    44  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 280035 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
835 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...LINGERING SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS SRN ZONES WITH FEW
EMBEDDED SHRA IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR REGION
ASSOC W/ VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TSTMS REMAIN ACROSS DEEP S
FL AND KEYS. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE CLEARING LINE ON THE SAT
ACROSS NATURE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE
PAN HANDLE WHERE SECOND DEW POINT GRADIENT AND WIND SURGE EXISTS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OUT OF THE REGION AND WILL BE SE OF
THE AREA COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL USHER MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DID HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO
SLOW PROGRESSION A BIT AND KEEP HIGH POPS IN FAR SOUTH THROUGH
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ARE IN FORECAST AND NOW OCCURRING AT
42036. BAYS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE SCA...BUT MIGHT GET CLOSE AND
WILL BUMP WINDS UP A BIT BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE (ESP TAMPA BAY).

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS CEN AND SW FL WILL IMPROVE AS COLD FRONT
BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AND PERSIST FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE PAN HANDLE TO NEAR
90 IN MIAMI.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN ABOUT 160 MILES OFF OF CLEARWATER ACCORDING TO
INFRA RED SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. RAIN TO BE
OUT OF CHIEFLAND AREA BY 5 PM...OUT OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
EVENING...THEN OUT OF FORT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
FORECAST AREA.

MID-LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. UNDER THAT STEERING FLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPERATURES AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE
DAMPING OUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE STATE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH PAN HANDLE. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 27 TO 35 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED. LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ONLY AROUND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  70  51  72 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  74  51  77 /  70   0   0   0
GIF  53  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  59  70  52  72 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  48  67  41  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  69  56  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...99




000
FXUS62 KTBW 280035 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
835 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...LINGERING SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS SRN ZONES WITH FEW
EMBEDDED SHRA IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR REGION
ASSOC W/ VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TSTMS REMAIN ACROSS DEEP S
FL AND KEYS. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE CLEARING LINE ON THE SAT
ACROSS NATURE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE
PAN HANDLE WHERE SECOND DEW POINT GRADIENT AND WIND SURGE EXISTS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OUT OF THE REGION AND WILL BE SE OF
THE AREA COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL USHER MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DID HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO
SLOW PROGRESSION A BIT AND KEEP HIGH POPS IN FAR SOUTH THROUGH
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ARE IN FORECAST AND NOW OCCURRING AT
42036. BAYS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE SCA...BUT MIGHT GET CLOSE AND
WILL BUMP WINDS UP A BIT BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE (ESP TAMPA BAY).

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS CEN AND SW FL WILL IMPROVE AS COLD FRONT
BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AND PERSIST FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE PAN HANDLE TO NEAR
90 IN MIAMI.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN ABOUT 160 MILES OFF OF CLEARWATER ACCORDING TO
INFRA RED SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. RAIN TO BE
OUT OF CHIEFLAND AREA BY 5 PM...OUT OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
EVENING...THEN OUT OF FORT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
FORECAST AREA.

MID-LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. UNDER THAT STEERING FLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPERATURES AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE
DAMPING OUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE STATE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH PAN HANDLE. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 27 TO 35 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED. LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ONLY AROUND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  70  51  72 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  74  51  77 /  70   0   0   0
GIF  53  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  59  70  52  72 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  48  67  41  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  69  56  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...99




000
FXUS62 KTBW 280035 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
835 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...LINGERING SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS SRN ZONES WITH FEW
EMBEDDED SHRA IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR REGION
ASSOC W/ VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TSTMS REMAIN ACROSS DEEP S
FL AND KEYS. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE CLEARING LINE ON THE SAT
ACROSS NATURE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE
PAN HANDLE WHERE SECOND DEW POINT GRADIENT AND WIND SURGE EXISTS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OUT OF THE REGION AND WILL BE SE OF
THE AREA COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL USHER MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DID HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO
SLOW PROGRESSION A BIT AND KEEP HIGH POPS IN FAR SOUTH THROUGH
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ARE IN FORECAST AND NOW OCCURRING AT
42036. BAYS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE SCA...BUT MIGHT GET CLOSE AND
WILL BUMP WINDS UP A BIT BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE (ESP TAMPA BAY).

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS CEN AND SW FL WILL IMPROVE AS COLD FRONT
BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AND PERSIST FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE PAN HANDLE TO NEAR
90 IN MIAMI.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN ABOUT 160 MILES OFF OF CLEARWATER ACCORDING TO
INFRA RED SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. RAIN TO BE
OUT OF CHIEFLAND AREA BY 5 PM...OUT OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
EVENING...THEN OUT OF FORT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
FORECAST AREA.

MID-LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. UNDER THAT STEERING FLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPERATURES AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE
DAMPING OUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE STATE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH PAN HANDLE. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 27 TO 35 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED. LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ONLY AROUND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  70  51  72 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  74  51  77 /  70   0   0   0
GIF  53  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  59  70  52  72 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  48  67  41  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  69  56  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...99




000
FXUS62 KTBW 280035 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
835 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...LINGERING SWATH OF RAIN ACROSS SRN ZONES WITH FEW
EMBEDDED SHRA IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR REGION
ASSOC W/ VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TSTMS REMAIN ACROSS DEEP S
FL AND KEYS. THE COLD FRONT IS NEAR THE CLEARING LINE ON THE SAT
ACROSS NATURE COAST. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SECOND SURGE ACROSS THE
PAN HANDLE WHERE SECOND DEW POINT GRADIENT AND WIND SURGE EXISTS.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP OUT OF THE REGION AND WILL BE SE OF
THE AREA COMPLETELY BY MIDNIGHT. FRONT WILL USHER MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. DID HAVE TO UPDATE POPS TO
SLOW PROGRESSION A BIT AND KEEP HIGH POPS IN FAR SOUTH THROUGH
EVENING. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS ARE IN FORECAST AND NOW OCCURRING AT
42036. BAYS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE SCA...BUT MIGHT GET CLOSE AND
WILL BUMP WINDS UP A BIT BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE (ESP TAMPA BAY).

&&

.AVIATION...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS CEN AND SW FL WILL IMPROVE AS COLD FRONT
BRINGS DRIER CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
AND PERSIST FOR REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE PAN HANDLE TO NEAR
90 IN MIAMI.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN ABOUT 160 MILES OFF OF CLEARWATER ACCORDING TO
INFRA RED SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. RAIN TO BE
OUT OF CHIEFLAND AREA BY 5 PM...OUT OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
EVENING...THEN OUT OF FORT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
FORECAST AREA.

MID-LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. UNDER THAT STEERING FLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPERATURES AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE
DAMPING OUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE STATE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH PAN HANDLE. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 27 TO 35 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED. LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ONLY AROUND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  70  51  72 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  74  51  77 /  70   0   0   0
GIF  53  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  59  70  52  72 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  48  67  41  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  69  56  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
DECISION SUPPORT...99




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280025
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT, STILL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. IT WILL KEEP AREAS OF RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN THAT
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

..SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  55  74 /  80   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  74  59  75 /  80   0   0   0
MIAMI            64  76  60  77 /  80   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  75  55  77 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280025
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...

CURRENTLY...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS OBSERVABLE JUST NORTH OF
VOLUSIA CO ON MLB RADAR ATTM. FEATURE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SWD OVER
ECFL BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BRINGING A RETURN TO 50S ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COOLER
AIRMASS SWEEPS SWD INTO THE AREA.

PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE LARGELY CLUSTER OVER S FL WITH SOME
MEASURABLE LIGHT PCPN STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT FROM THE MLB
AREA SOUTH TO THE TREASURE COAST ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
UNTIL FROPA WHEN SKY CONDS WL START AN IMPROVEMENT. WL ISSUE A
FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY TO FRESHEN UP ELEMENTS AND LOWER PCPN
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
CELLS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 11 PM. EXPECT STEADILY
IMPROVING SKC CONDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC WND
GUSTS NR 20 KTS AFTER FROPA THROUGH AROUND 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...(PREVIOUS) GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
NEAR AND BEHIND THE STRONG FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO
SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE
GULF STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

JP/PG



000
FXUS62 KMLB 280025
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...

CURRENTLY...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS OBSERVABLE JUST NORTH OF
VOLUSIA CO ON MLB RADAR ATTM. FEATURE WILL QUICKLY SWEEP SWD OVER
ECFL BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BRINGING A RETURN TO 50S ALONG
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE COOLER
AIRMASS SWEEPS SWD INTO THE AREA.

PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE LARGELY CLUSTER OVER S FL WITH SOME
MEASURABLE LIGHT PCPN STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT FROM THE MLB
AREA SOUTH TO THE TREASURE COAST ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
UNTIL FROPA WHEN SKY CONDS WL START AN IMPROVEMENT. WL ISSUE A
FORECAST UPDATE SHORTLY TO FRESHEN UP ELEMENTS AND LOWER PCPN
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING STRATIFORM LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
CELLS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH 11 PM. EXPECT STEADILY
IMPROVING SKC CONDS BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SFC WND
GUSTS NR 20 KTS AFTER FROPA THROUGH AROUND 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...(PREVIOUS) GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
NEAR AND BEHIND THE STRONG FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO
SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE
GULF STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

JP/PG




000
FXUS62 KJAX 272349
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
749 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015


.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WITH NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS NOW PUSHING SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. FRONT AND PRECIP
WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 03Z. CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS FRONTAL
PASSAGE PUSHES SE. ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS NW WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH BUILDING SEAS THIS EVENING.
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  60  37  64 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  46  62  43  62 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  43  65  44  63 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  47  64  48  64 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  44  66  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  46  68  41  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/SHULER/



000
FXUS62 KJAX 272349
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
749 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015


.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WITH NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS NOW PUSHING SE
ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. FRONT AND PRECIP
WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY 03Z. CLEARING SKIES AND LOWER DEWPOINTS
ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS FRONTAL
PASSAGE PUSHES SE. ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS NW WINDS
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH BUILDING SEAS THIS EVENING.
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  60  37  64 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  46  62  43  62 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  43  65  44  63 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  47  64  48  64 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  44  66  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  46  68  41  68 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/SHULER/




000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...

CURRENTLY...HUGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 180
KNOT 250MB JET CORE OVER THE CAROLINAS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING AT BEST...CELLS WERE FIRING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE PRE FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE TREASURE COAST BY 02Z. WEST WINDS
IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECT A COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.

SAT-MON NIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50
TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS
SEWD RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF
THE POST-FRONTAL NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING
SOME STRENGTH...THE SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE
HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS
IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX
INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS
IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT
MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S AND M50S NORTH TO L60S
S/E MON NIGHT.

TUE-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS
INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH
WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE
IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA FOR THU TO MAINTAIN
LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT
LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS INTO EVENING
(ESPECIALLY KTIX-KSUA). IT WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND COLD FRONT
EVERYWHERE AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CIRRUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING
IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS
AND PROVIDE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MON. THE AXIS WILL BECOME
REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK AND RESULT IN AN
ONSHORE WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  69  51  65 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  54  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  51  71  49  70 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  53  71  45  72 /  30   0   0   0
LEE  52  72  48  70 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  51  72  49  70 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  54  72  51  70 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  56  71  46  71 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
RADAR WATCH...........CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...

CURRENTLY...HUGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 180
KNOT 250MB JET CORE OVER THE CAROLINAS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING AT BEST...CELLS WERE FIRING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE PRE FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE TREASURE COAST BY 02Z. WEST WINDS
IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECT A COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.

SAT-MON NIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50
TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS
SEWD RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF
THE POST-FRONTAL NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING
SOME STRENGTH...THE SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE
HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS
IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX
INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS
IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT
MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S AND M50S NORTH TO L60S
S/E MON NIGHT.

TUE-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS
INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH
WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE
IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA FOR THU TO MAINTAIN
LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT
LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS INTO EVENING
(ESPECIALLY KTIX-KSUA). IT WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND COLD FRONT
EVERYWHERE AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CIRRUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING
IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS
AND PROVIDE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MON. THE AXIS WILL BECOME
REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK AND RESULT IN AN
ONSHORE WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  69  51  65 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  54  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  51  71  49  70 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  53  71  45  72 /  30   0   0   0
LEE  52  72  48  70 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  51  72  49  70 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  54  72  51  70 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  56  71  46  71 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
RADAR WATCH...........CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...

CURRENTLY...HUGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 180
KNOT 250MB JET CORE OVER THE CAROLINAS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING AT BEST...CELLS WERE FIRING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE PRE FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE TREASURE COAST BY 02Z. WEST WINDS
IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECT A COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.

SAT-MON NIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50
TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS
SEWD RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF
THE POST-FRONTAL NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING
SOME STRENGTH...THE SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE
HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS
IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX
INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS
IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT
MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S AND M50S NORTH TO L60S
S/E MON NIGHT.

TUE-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS
INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH
WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE
IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA FOR THU TO MAINTAIN
LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT
LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS INTO EVENING
(ESPECIALLY KTIX-KSUA). IT WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND COLD FRONT
EVERYWHERE AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CIRRUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING
IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS
AND PROVIDE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MON. THE AXIS WILL BECOME
REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK AND RESULT IN AN
ONSHORE WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  69  51  65 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  54  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  51  71  49  70 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  53  71  45  72 /  30   0   0   0
LEE  52  72  48  70 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  51  72  49  70 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  54  72  51  70 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  56  71  46  71 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
RADAR WATCH...........CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
308 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...
...HAZARDOUS TO POOR BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY...

CURRENTLY...HUGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 180
KNOT 250MB JET CORE OVER THE CAROLINAS WAS SPREADING ACROSS THE
AREA. EVEN WITH MODEST HEATING AT BEST...CELLS WERE FIRING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL PUSHES THE PRE FRONTAL
BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS OFF THE TREASURE COAST BY 02Z. WEST WINDS
IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECT A COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.

SAT-MON NIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50
TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS
SEWD RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF
THE POST-FRONTAL NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING
SOME STRENGTH...THE SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE
HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS
IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX
INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS
IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT
MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S AND M50S NORTH TO L60S
S/E MON NIGHT.

TUE-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS
INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC
RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH
WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE
IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK.
HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA FOR THU TO MAINTAIN
LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
REGION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS OVER 40 KNOTS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT
LINGERING STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED CELLS INTO EVENING
(ESPECIALLY KTIX-KSUA). IT WILL CLEAR OUT BEHIND COLD FRONT
EVERYWHERE AFTER 06Z EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING CIRRUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY. A BIT OF TIGHTENING
IS INDICATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUNDAY SO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP....ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE WATERS
AND PROVIDE GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS MON. THE AXIS WILL BECOME
REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD BY MID WEEK AND RESULT IN AN
ONSHORE WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE 10-12 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  50  69  51  65 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  54  71  49  72 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  51  71  49  70 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  53  71  45  72 /  30   0   0   0
LEE  52  72  48  70 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  51  72  49  70 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  54  72  51  70 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  56  71  46  71 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH
     TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON
RADAR WATCH...........CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KTAE 272024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH VALDOSTA AND
NOW STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S IN THEN NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALONG THE COAST.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH
DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING
PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST GOM. THIS WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO
FALL, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN
THE AMOUNT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS THE EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND
WOULD NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUDNERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   40  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   47  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        39  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    42  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 272024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH VALDOSTA AND
NOW STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S IN THEN NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALONG THE COAST.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH
DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING
PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST GOM. THIS WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO
FALL, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN
THE AMOUNT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS THE EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND
WOULD NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUDNERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   40  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   47  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        39  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    42  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 272024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH VALDOSTA AND
NOW STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S IN THEN NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALONG THE COAST.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH
DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING
PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST GOM. THIS WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO
FALL, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN
THE AMOUNT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS THE EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND
WOULD NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUDNERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   40  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   47  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        39  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    42  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 272024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH VALDOSTA AND
NOW STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S IN THEN NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALONG THE COAST.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH
DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING
PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST GOM. THIS WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO
FALL, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN
THE AMOUNT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS THE EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND
WOULD NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUDNERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   40  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   47  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        39  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    42  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 272024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH VALDOSTA AND
NOW STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S IN THEN NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALONG THE COAST.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH
DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING
PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST GOM. THIS WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO
FALL, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN
THE AMOUNT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS THE EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND
WOULD NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUDNERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   40  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   47  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        39  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    42  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 272024
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH VALDOSTA AND
NOW STRETCHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 30S IN THEN NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND ALONG THE COAST.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

AFTER A CHILLY START IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY
10-15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, THE WARMING TREND WILL BE FAIRLY
SLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 60 IN NORTHERN LOCATIONS OF THE CWA WITH LOW TO MID 60S IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA, SOUTHERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA WITH
DECENT SUNSHINE AROUND. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
FAIRLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE SOUTHEAST US. CURRENT THINKING
PLACES THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND GEORGIA BORDER WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NORTHEAST GOM. THIS WOULD MAKE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE COLDEST. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY RECORDS TO
FALL, MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF TALLAHASSEE WILL SEE NEAR-RECORD LOWS
AROUND OR JUST BELOW 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY RESIDES IN
THE AMOUNT OF ANY HIGH CLOUDS, IF ANY, THAT COULD PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AS THE EURO IS SLOWER MOVING THIS RIDGE SOUTHEAST AND
WOULD NOT ALLOW IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUNDAY AS
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
BEGINS TO ESTABLISH.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK A WEAK SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY
ENTERING THE WASHINGTON STATE AREA) WILL PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON MONDAY THIS WILL HELP GENERATE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA AND STALL GIVING
OUR AREA COOL CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. AFTER THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY A CUT- OFF LOW WILL
EJECT EASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND WILL HELP GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUDNERSTORM
LATER IN THE WEEK AS SOME CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE ONGOING IN THE
WESTERN GULF.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL AREA WATERS. WINDS OF 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL 30 KNOT GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WITH SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THEN REMAIN LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER AIR IS ON TAP THIS WEEKEND. WHILE RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL DROP TO CRITICAL LEVELS...FUELS WILL BE TOO MOIST TO ALLOW RED
FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   40  63  42  67  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
PANAMA CITY   47  62  46  65  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
DOTHAN        39  60  39  65  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALBANY        38  58  38  63  48 /   0   0   0   0  10
VALDOSTA      41  62  40  67  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
CROSS CITY    42  65  41  68  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
APALACHICOLA  45  64  47  64  57 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
     GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR APALACHEE BAY
     OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FL
     OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO
     APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SUWANNEE
     RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
LONG TERM...LAMERS/DOBBS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS/WESTON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271917
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
317 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COUNTIES REST OF
TODAY DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FIRE AND DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM
JESUP TO LAKE CITY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS PUT OUR ERN ZONES AND SE
SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS GUSTY WINDS.
LATEST LAPS CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE
THREAT OF ANY ISOLD STRONG STORMS SHOULD END THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE
FRONT MOVES SEWD AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS ON SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH
UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 COAST. WITH WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 5-10 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR
MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE
PRIOR FCST. WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MIGHT SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WITH A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE/LOW OVER THE UPPER GULF
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EAST ON THURSDAY
BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. OVERALL TEMPS LOOKING TO START
OUT BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REALIZED IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS HERE IN
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS IN STORMS. ALREADY SEEN ONE OBSERVATION SHOW 2SM
IN A THUNDERSTORM SO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES AND W TO NW
WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 10-15 KT...SETTLING DOWN TO 5-10 KT LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS INCREASE FROM
THE NW AROUND 10-12G20KT SAT AND VFR PREVAILS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE S TO SW AROUND 15 KT OFFSHORE AND 10-15 KT
NEARSHORE PER LATEST RTMA ANALYSES. SEAS 2-4 FT. FLOW VEERS TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN
BUT WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SAT DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  60  37  64 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  46  62  43  62 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  43  65  44  63 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  47  64  48  64 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  44  66  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  46  68  41  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/SANDRIK



000
FXUS62 KJAX 271917
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
317 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COUNTIES REST OF
TODAY DUE TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FIRE AND DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED FROM
JESUP TO LAKE CITY. MAIN THREATS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS PUT OUR ERN ZONES AND SE
SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS GUSTY WINDS.
LATEST LAPS CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS SBCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE
THREAT OF ANY ISOLD STRONG STORMS SHOULD END THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING FROM NW TO SE AS THE
FRONT MOVES SEWD AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDS ON SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH
UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 COAST. WITH WINDS STAYING UP AROUND 5-10 MPH
BY EARLY MORNING...WIND CHILL READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR
MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE
PRIOR FCST. WILL BE BREEZY SATURDAY WITH NW WINDS AROUND 15 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA
WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MIGHT SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WITH A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE/LOW OVER THE UPPER GULF
COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORT WAVE ADVANCES EAST ON THURSDAY
BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. OVERALL TEMPS LOOKING TO START
OUT BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REALIZED IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS HERE IN
THE NEXT 2-3 HRS IN STORMS. ALREADY SEEN ONE OBSERVATION SHOW 2SM
IN A THUNDERSTORM SO REMAINS A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN. CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT THIS EVENING AND CLEAR SKIES AND W TO NW
WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 10-15 KT...SETTLING DOWN TO 5-10 KT LATE
TONIGHT THOUGH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS INCREASE FROM
THE NW AROUND 10-12G20KT SAT AND VFR PREVAILS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE S TO SW AROUND 15 KT OFFSHORE AND 10-15 KT
NEARSHORE PER LATEST RTMA ANALYSES. SEAS 2-4 FT. FLOW VEERS TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. MARGINAL SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN
BUT WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS
GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SAT DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  40  60  37  64 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  46  62  43  62 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  43  65  44  63 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  47  64  48  64 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  44  66  40  67 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  46  68  41  68 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/SANDRIK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271916
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. 21/KM

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  55  74 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  74  59  75 /  30   0   0   0
MIAMI            64  76  60  77 /  30   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  75  55  77 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...59/MOLLEDA
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271916
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. 21/KM

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  55  74 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  74  59  75 /  30   0   0   0
MIAMI            64  76  60  77 /  30   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  75  55  77 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...59/MOLLEDA
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271916
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. 21/KM

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  55  74 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  74  59  75 /  30   0   0   0
MIAMI            64  76  60  77 /  30   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  75  55  77 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...59/MOLLEDA
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271916
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. 21/KM

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  55  74 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  74  59  75 /  30   0   0   0
MIAMI            64  76  60  77 /  30   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  75  55  77 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...59/MOLLEDA
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA



000
FXUS62 KTBW 271902
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE PAN HANDLE TO NEAR
90 IN MIAMI.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN ABOUT 160 MILES OFF OF CLEARWATER ACCORDING TO
INFRA RED SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. RAIN TO BE
OUT OF CHIEFLAND AREA BY 5 PM...OUT OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
EVENING...THEN OUT OF FORT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
FORECAST AREA.

.MID-LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. UNDER THAT STEERING FLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPERATURES AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE
DAMPING OUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE STATE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH PAN HANDLE. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 27 TO 35 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED. LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ONLY AROUND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  70  51  72 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  74  51  77 /  20   0   0   0
GIF  53  71  49  72 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  59  70  52  72 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  48  67  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  60  69  56  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM...03/PAXTON
MARINE...10/LAMARRE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 271902
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. SURFACE COLD FRONT IN BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE PAN HANDLE TO NEAR
90 IN MIAMI.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
BACK EDGE OF RAIN ABOUT 160 MILES OFF OF CLEARWATER ACCORDING TO
INFRA RED SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DETECTION NETWORK. RAIN TO BE
OUT OF CHIEFLAND AREA BY 5 PM...OUT OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY
EVENING...THEN OUT OF FORT MYERS AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
FORECAST AREA.

.MID-LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE COAST. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER WEST VIRGINIA WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON MONDAY. UNDER THAT STEERING FLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER FLORIDA TUESDAY AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND
TEMPERATURES AND THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY THE SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE
DAMPING OUT WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND THE ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. BY FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE STATE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH PAN HANDLE. LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF TERMINALS WITH CONDITIONS
QUICKLY BECOMING VFR THIS EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH COASTAL WATERS BY EVENING. BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 27 TO 35 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED. LOW HUMIDITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY BUT WINDS ONLY AROUND 10
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  56  70  51  72 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  74  51  77 /  20   0   0   0
GIF  53  71  49  72 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  59  70  52  72 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  48  67  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  60  69  56  70 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH
     TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
LONG TERM...03/PAXTON
MARINE...10/LAMARRE




000
FXUS62 KKEY 271859
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 200 2M OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE MAIN AXIS OF A DEEP LATE SEASON POLAR TROUGH NOW SITUATED FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE LOWER RIGHT FLANK
OF THE BASE OF THIS DEEP TROUGH. LOBES OF VORTICITY DO REMAIN JUST TO
THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THE KEYS AND LINEAR CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN SITU OVER THESE WATERS. THE MIDDLE
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO ERODE BUT THIS DOES APPEAR TO THE
CASE AS OF THIS HOUR.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE ANALYSIS
AND OBSERVATIONS AS OF 200 PM DETAIL THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO TO BAY OF CAMPHECE. AS JUST
MENTIONED...A LARGE BAND OF LINEAR CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM JUST
WEST OF MARCO ISLAND SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT 200 MILES DUE WEST OF KEY WEST.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE
FROM LAKE OCHEE TO NEAR FT MYERS THENCE TO ABOUT 200 NM WEST OF KEY WEST.

.CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS KEYS WATERS AND ADJOINING
COASTAL WATERS. WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG REVERSE CLOUD
LINES WHICH HAVE AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS SINCE EVAPORATED WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING THE STRAITS ATTM.
AT PRESENT...KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 75 TO 100 NM WEST THRU NORTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ATTM.
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE REGISTERING SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH
OVER THE ISLANDS

.FORECASTS...MAIN STORY IS A COLD FRONT WILL IS SLUMBERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO ATTM...BUT WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UNTIL THEN...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP AND UNLESS AN OUTFLOW PULLS THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWN ACROSS THE KEYS SOONER...DO NOT SEE THIS IMPACTING THE ISLANDS UNTIL AFTER
8 PM. MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY POOR VISIBILITY...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND FRESHEN AS THEY VEER TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST BY
SUNSET...THEN BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AFTER FROPA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ARE TRICKIER AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THAT GULF WATERS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...SO THEY CAN BE SEVERAL KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE MODEL
SUGGEST...AS IT IS NOT ALWAYS CAUGHT UP WITH THESE COMPLETE CHANGES
IN THE INITIAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS.

SO BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WINDY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL VERY DRY AIR IN THE
COOL DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD...THEN SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE PENINSULA...SCOURING ANY CHANCE OF CLOUDINESS BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES...HIGHS WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR SATURDAY...8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR 60 SATURDAY NIGHT...ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES THROUGH
MID WEEK AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAKER RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS A 10 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASING WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL VEER FROM BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND WEST
TO MAINLY NORTH AND BECOMING STRONG WITH THE FROPA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING A BIT
IN THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL LIKELY NEED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL OTHER WATERS IN THE MARINE DISTRICT.


&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/28TH...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A FEW MVFR
ENCOUNTERS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z AND
08Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS BY EARL THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 22 AND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN
02 AND 05Z. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CROSS WINDS FOR THE
BALANCE OF TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  70  73  62  75 / 60 0 0 0
MARATHON  69  74  62  76 / 60 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...............APA
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......VICKERY/CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271859
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 200 2M OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE MAIN AXIS OF A DEEP LATE SEASON POLAR TROUGH NOW SITUATED FROM WESTERN
QUEBEC SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE BENEATH THE LOWER RIGHT FLANK
OF THE BASE OF THIS DEEP TROUGH. LOBES OF VORTICITY DO REMAIN JUST TO
THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THE KEYS AND LINEAR CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING IN SITU OVER THESE WATERS. THE MIDDLE
LEVEL DRY AIR HAS BEEN STUBBORN TO ERODE BUT THIS DOES APPEAR TO THE
CASE AS OF THIS HOUR.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB)...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE ANALYSIS
AND OBSERVATIONS AS OF 200 PM DETAIL THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST TO TO BAY OF CAMPHECE. AS JUST
MENTIONED...A LARGE BAND OF LINEAR CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM JUST
WEST OF MARCO ISLAND SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT 200 MILES DUE WEST OF KEY WEST.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH THAT IS IN PLACE
FROM LAKE OCHEE TO NEAR FT MYERS THENCE TO ABOUT 200 NM WEST OF KEY WEST.

.CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS KEYS WATERS AND ADJOINING
COASTAL WATERS. WIDELY SEPARATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG REVERSE CLOUD
LINES WHICH HAVE AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS SINCE EVAPORATED WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS DOTTING THE STRAITS ATTM.
AT PRESENT...KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 75 TO 100 NM WEST THRU NORTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ATTM.
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE REGISTERING SOUTHWEST WINDS
NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF. SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 MPH
OVER THE ISLANDS

.FORECASTS...MAIN STORY IS A COLD FRONT WILL IS SLUMBERING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO ATTM...BUT WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
UNTIL THEN...SKIES WILL CLOUD UP AND UNLESS AN OUTFLOW PULLS THE AFOREMENTIONED
DOWN ACROSS THE KEYS SOONER...DO NOT SEE THIS IMPACTING THE ISLANDS UNTIL AFTER
8 PM. MAIN THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS...BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED BY POOR VISIBILITY...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND FRESHEN AS THEY VEER TO BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST BY
SUNSET...THEN BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AFTER FROPA. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS ARE TRICKIER AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THAT GULF WATERS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 80
DEGREES...SO THEY CAN BE SEVERAL KNOTS HIGHER THAN THE MODEL
SUGGEST...AS IT IS NOT ALWAYS CAUGHT UP WITH THESE COMPLETE CHANGES
IN THE INITIAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS.

SO BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WINDY OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL VERY DRY AIR IN THE
COOL DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD...THEN SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE PENINSULA...SCOURING ANY CHANCE OF CLOUDINESS BY LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE 1000-850 THICKNESS VALUES...HIGHS WILL
ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR SATURDAY...8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR 60 SATURDAY NIGHT...ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S SUNDAY...THEN RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR
NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES THROUGH
MID WEEK AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT AND UPPER 60S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAKER RIDGING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS A 10 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THESE PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR INCREASING WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL VEER FROM BETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND WEST
TO MAINLY NORTH AND BECOMING STRONG WITH THE FROPA AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU LATE SATURDAY MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING A BIT
IN THE AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS IS LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL LIKELY NEED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL OTHER WATERS IN THE MARINE DISTRICT.


&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/28TH...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A FEW MVFR
ENCOUNTERS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS BETWEEN 00Z AND
08Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR THE
BALANCE OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN WEST AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS BY EARL THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 22 AND 25 KNOTS BETWEEN
02 AND 05Z. THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE CROSS WINDS FOR THE
BALANCE OF TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  70  73  62  75 / 60 0 0 0
MARATHON  69  74  62  76 / 60 0 0 0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM LATE THIS EVENING TO
11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...............APA
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.......VICKERY/CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  73  54  75 /  30  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  74  59  75 /  30  10   0   0
MIAMI            64  77  60  78 /  30  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  74  54  77 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  73  54  75 /  30  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  74  59  75 /  30  10   0   0
MIAMI            64  77  60  78 /  30  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  74  54  77 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  73  54  75 /  30  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  74  59  75 /  30  10   0   0
MIAMI            64  77  60  78 /  30  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  74  54  77 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  73  54  75 /  30  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  74  59  75 /  30  10   0   0
MIAMI            64  77  60  78 /  30  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  74  54  77 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271417
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE CLOUD DECK
SCATTERS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURE EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS FOR TODAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S IN THE ALABAMA COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S TOWARDS
THE BIG BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [700 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE
AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  20   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  10   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        66  39  60  39  64 /  10   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  30   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    75  45  66  42  70 /  30   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  72  46  66  46  68 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271417
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE CLOUD DECK
SCATTERS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURE EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS FOR TODAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S IN THE ALABAMA COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S TOWARDS
THE BIG BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [700 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE
AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  20   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  10   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        66  39  60  39  64 /  10   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  30   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    75  45  66  42  70 /  30   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  72  46  66  46  68 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 271417
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE CLOUD DECK
SCATTERS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURE EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS FOR TODAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S IN THE ALABAMA COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S TOWARDS
THE BIG BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [700 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE
AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  20   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  10   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        66  39  60  39  64 /  10   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  30   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    75  45  66  42  70 /  30   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  72  46  66  46  68 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 271417
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE CLOUD DECK
SCATTERS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURE EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS FOR TODAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S IN THE ALABAMA COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S TOWARDS
THE BIG BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [700 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE
AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  20   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  10   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        66  39  60  39  64 /  10   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  30   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    75  45  66  42  70 /  30   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  72  46  66  46  68 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 271417
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1017 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A COLD FRONT IS PASSING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING
GUSTY NW WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AS THE CLOUD DECK
SCATTERS OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGH
TEMPERATURE EARLIER IN THE DAY THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE COOLER AIR
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS FOR TODAY TO RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S IN THE ALABAMA COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 70S TOWARDS
THE BIG BEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [700 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE
AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  20   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  10   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        66  39  60  39  64 /  10   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  30   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    75  45  66  42  70 /  30   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  72  46  66  46  68 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KJAX 271414
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1014 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT LIES FROM ERN GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND IS
MOVING STEADILY EWD. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN IN OUR
AREA AND AS THE FRONT PUSHES EWD AND PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH OF 80-95 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. OWING TO TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TSTM INTENSITY
WILL BE HAMPERED BUT WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING IS UNDERWAY. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER GENERALLY NOON TO 4 PM. VSBY IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALREADY IN NE FL. BASED ON
THIS HAVE INCREASED TEMPS 2-3 DEG E OF HIGHWAY 301 TO JAX AND EWD
TO THE COAST. BASED LATEST RADAR DATA HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT THIS
MORNING BUT CONTINUED WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA AT THIS TIME
BUT CIGS ARE LOWERING A BIT TO LOW END MVFR AT TIMES. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND ANY TSTMS BUT IFR POSSIBLE. PRECIP
CHANCES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY BY ABOUT 19Z FOR SSI AND 19Z-22Z FOR
NE FL TAFS AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP MOVES E AND SE. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED AROUND 10-15 KT AT 9 AM AND WILL INCREASE TO
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. SCEC FOR TODAY
NEARSHORE AND MARGINAL SCA BEGINS THIS AFTN AND THEN SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  60   0   0   0
SSI  72  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  76  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/SANDRIK/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271414
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1014 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT LIES FROM ERN GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND IS
MOVING STEADILY EWD. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN IN OUR
AREA AND AS THE FRONT PUSHES EWD AND PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH OF 80-95 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. OWING TO TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TSTM INTENSITY
WILL BE HAMPERED BUT WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING IS UNDERWAY. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER GENERALLY NOON TO 4 PM. VSBY IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALREADY IN NE FL. BASED ON
THIS HAVE INCREASED TEMPS 2-3 DEG E OF HIGHWAY 301 TO JAX AND EWD
TO THE COAST. BASED LATEST RADAR DATA HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT THIS
MORNING BUT CONTINUED WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA AT THIS TIME
BUT CIGS ARE LOWERING A BIT TO LOW END MVFR AT TIMES. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND ANY TSTMS BUT IFR POSSIBLE. PRECIP
CHANCES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY BY ABOUT 19Z FOR SSI AND 19Z-22Z FOR
NE FL TAFS AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP MOVES E AND SE. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED AROUND 10-15 KT AT 9 AM AND WILL INCREASE TO
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. SCEC FOR TODAY
NEARSHORE AND MARGINAL SCA BEGINS THIS AFTN AND THEN SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  60   0   0   0
SSI  72  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  76  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/SANDRIK/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271414
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1014 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT LIES FROM ERN GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND IS
MOVING STEADILY EWD. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN IN OUR
AREA AND AS THE FRONT PUSHES EWD AND PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH OF 80-95 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. OWING TO TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TSTM INTENSITY
WILL BE HAMPERED BUT WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING IS UNDERWAY. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER GENERALLY NOON TO 4 PM. VSBY IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALREADY IN NE FL. BASED ON
THIS HAVE INCREASED TEMPS 2-3 DEG E OF HIGHWAY 301 TO JAX AND EWD
TO THE COAST. BASED LATEST RADAR DATA HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT THIS
MORNING BUT CONTINUED WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA AT THIS TIME
BUT CIGS ARE LOWERING A BIT TO LOW END MVFR AT TIMES. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND ANY TSTMS BUT IFR POSSIBLE. PRECIP
CHANCES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY BY ABOUT 19Z FOR SSI AND 19Z-22Z FOR
NE FL TAFS AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP MOVES E AND SE. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED AROUND 10-15 KT AT 9 AM AND WILL INCREASE TO
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. SCEC FOR TODAY
NEARSHORE AND MARGINAL SCA BEGINS THIS AFTN AND THEN SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  60   0   0   0
SSI  72  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  76  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/SANDRIK/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271414
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1014 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT LIES FROM ERN GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE AND IS
MOVING STEADILY EWD. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S. RADAR SHOWS LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN IN OUR
AREA AND AS THE FRONT PUSHES EWD AND PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE
VALUES (MEAN 1000-500 MB RH OF 80-95 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE WITH A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. OWING TO TIMING OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TSTM INTENSITY
WILL BE HAMPERED BUT WE EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE DAYTIME HEATING IS UNDERWAY. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDER GENERALLY NOON TO 4 PM. VSBY IMAGES SHOW A
FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALREADY IN NE FL. BASED ON
THIS HAVE INCREASED TEMPS 2-3 DEG E OF HIGHWAY 301 TO JAX AND EWD
TO THE COAST. BASED LATEST RADAR DATA HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT THIS
MORNING BUT CONTINUED WITH ELEVATED CHANCES FOR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA AT THIS TIME
BUT CIGS ARE LOWERING A BIT TO LOW END MVFR AT TIMES. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED IN SHOWERS AND ANY TSTMS BUT IFR POSSIBLE. PRECIP
CHANCES LOWER SIGNIFICANTLY BY ABOUT 19Z FOR SSI AND 19Z-22Z FOR
NE FL TAFS AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCD PRECIP MOVES E AND SE. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING. SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING
WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KT THIS AFTN. WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS NOTED AROUND 10-15 KT AT 9 AM AND WILL INCREASE TO
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST
THEN NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. SCEC FOR TODAY
NEARSHORE AND MARGINAL SCA BEGINS THIS AFTN AND THEN SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  60   0   0   0
SSI  72  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  76  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/SANDRIK/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271404
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271404
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271404
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271404
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KKEY 271356
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1000 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 900 AM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE AXIS OF A DEEP LATE SEASON POLAR TROUGH SITUATED FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TEXAS. WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THAT...THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE REACHED
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE LOWER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...BUT LOWER HEIGHTS ARE APPROACHING THE KEYS ATTM ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING LOBES OF MIDDLE LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)
AT 500 MB MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SEA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL GULF ALSO DO DEPICT SOME
LINEAR CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM...DETECT A LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT FROM OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SOUTH SOUTHWEST
AND BISECTING THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY
WEST ILLUSTRATED A FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT
1.58 INCHES YET UNSTABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WITH SURFACE TO
3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.7 DEGREES CELSIUS PER KILOMETER. THE PROFILE
ALSO CONSISTED OF GENTLE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE...BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST ABOVE 900 MB...REACHING
ABOUT 50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. YET DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CARIBBEAN
ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW
REVERSE DIRECTION CLOUD LINES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE
ALREADY NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. KEY
WEST RADAR DETECTS THE LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING
INTO GMZ-034...ABOUT 20 NM WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...THE AXIS OF THE COLD CORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS STEADY MIGRATION EASTWARD
THROUGH TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND ONLY
SLOWLY EAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT ACTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE KEYS
UNTIL BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. GIVEN ABOVE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE
AMOUNT OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR IN SITU
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CRUX OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SOUNDING AND THE PROFILE OF AVAILABLE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WE ANTICIPATE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...IN EXCESS OF 40
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CLOCK TO
BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND FRESHEN TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THIS EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MAY
LULL AT TIMES...WITH WINDS CLOCKING TO NORTH AND WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE KEYS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...AS
WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. SMALL CRAFT WILL
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO BETWEEN
WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 TO
20 KNOTS LATE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS...SUSTAINED AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. THESE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON ALL
KEYS WATERS...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.

&&
.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/28TH...OUTSIDE OF A SPELL OR TWO OF MVFR CONDITIONS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINAL THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE...WHILE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE ATTM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................APA
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR...........VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271356
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1000 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 900 AM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE AXIS OF A DEEP LATE SEASON POLAR TROUGH SITUATED FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TEXAS. WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THAT...THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE REACHED
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE LOWER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...BUT LOWER HEIGHTS ARE APPROACHING THE KEYS ATTM ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING LOBES OF MIDDLE LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)
AT 500 MB MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SEA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL GULF ALSO DO DEPICT SOME
LINEAR CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM...DETECT A LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT FROM OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SOUTH SOUTHWEST
AND BISECTING THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY
WEST ILLUSTRATED A FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT
1.58 INCHES YET UNSTABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WITH SURFACE TO
3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.7 DEGREES CELSIUS PER KILOMETER. THE PROFILE
ALSO CONSISTED OF GENTLE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE...BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST ABOVE 900 MB...REACHING
ABOUT 50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. YET DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CARIBBEAN
ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW
REVERSE DIRECTION CLOUD LINES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE
ALREADY NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. KEY
WEST RADAR DETECTS THE LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING
INTO GMZ-034...ABOUT 20 NM WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...THE AXIS OF THE COLD CORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS STEADY MIGRATION EASTWARD
THROUGH TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND ONLY
SLOWLY EAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT ACTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE KEYS
UNTIL BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. GIVEN ABOVE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE
AMOUNT OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR IN SITU
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CRUX OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SOUNDING AND THE PROFILE OF AVAILABLE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WE ANTICIPATE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...IN EXCESS OF 40
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CLOCK TO
BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND FRESHEN TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THIS EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MAY
LULL AT TIMES...WITH WINDS CLOCKING TO NORTH AND WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE KEYS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...AS
WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. SMALL CRAFT WILL
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO BETWEEN
WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 TO
20 KNOTS LATE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS...SUSTAINED AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. THESE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON ALL
KEYS WATERS...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.

&&
.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/28TH...OUTSIDE OF A SPELL OR TWO OF MVFR CONDITIONS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINAL THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE...WHILE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE ATTM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................APA
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR...........VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 271356
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1000 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 900 AM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE AXIS OF A DEEP LATE SEASON POLAR TROUGH SITUATED FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TEXAS. WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THAT...THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE REACHED
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE LOWER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...BUT LOWER HEIGHTS ARE APPROACHING THE KEYS ATTM ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING LOBES OF MIDDLE LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)
AT 500 MB MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SEA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL GULF ALSO DO DEPICT SOME
LINEAR CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM...DETECT A LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT FROM OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SOUTH SOUTHWEST
AND BISECTING THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY
WEST ILLUSTRATED A FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT
1.58 INCHES YET UNSTABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WITH SURFACE TO
3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.7 DEGREES CELSIUS PER KILOMETER. THE PROFILE
ALSO CONSISTED OF GENTLE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE...BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST ABOVE 900 MB...REACHING
ABOUT 50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. YET DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CARIBBEAN
ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW
REVERSE DIRECTION CLOUD LINES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE
ALREADY NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. KEY
WEST RADAR DETECTS THE LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING
INTO GMZ-034...ABOUT 20 NM WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...THE AXIS OF THE COLD CORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS STEADY MIGRATION EASTWARD
THROUGH TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND ONLY
SLOWLY EAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT ACTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE KEYS
UNTIL BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. GIVEN ABOVE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE
AMOUNT OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR IN SITU
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CRUX OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SOUNDING AND THE PROFILE OF AVAILABLE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WE ANTICIPATE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...IN EXCESS OF 40
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CLOCK TO
BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND FRESHEN TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THIS EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MAY
LULL AT TIMES...WITH WINDS CLOCKING TO NORTH AND WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE KEYS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...AS
WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. SMALL CRAFT WILL
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO BETWEEN
WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 TO
20 KNOTS LATE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS...SUSTAINED AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. THESE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON ALL
KEYS WATERS...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.

&&
.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/28TH...OUTSIDE OF A SPELL OR TWO OF MVFR CONDITIONS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINAL THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE...WHILE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE ATTM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................APA
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR...........VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 271356
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1000 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 900 AM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE AXIS OF A DEEP LATE SEASON POLAR TROUGH SITUATED FROM EASTERN
ONTARIO SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TEXAS. WELL SOUTHEAST OF
THAT...THE NORTHWEST EXTENT OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE REACHED
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE LOWER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...BUT LOWER HEIGHTS ARE APPROACHING THE KEYS ATTM ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING LOBES OF MIDDLE LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)
AT 500 MB MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE
AND SEA SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE CENTRAL GULF ALSO DO DEPICT SOME
LINEAR CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
ATTM.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 AM...DETECT A LATE
SEASON COLD FRONT FROM OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SOUTH SOUTHWEST
AND BISECTING THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY
WEST ILLUSTRATED A FAIRLY MOIST WITH PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT
1.58 INCHES YET UNSTABLE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE WITH SURFACE TO
3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.7 DEGREES CELSIUS PER KILOMETER. THE PROFILE
ALSO CONSISTED OF GENTLE TO FRESH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE...BACKING MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST ABOVE 900 MB...REACHING
ABOUT 50 KNOTS AT 500 MB. YET DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE CARIBBEAN
ANTICYCLONE REMAINS ABOVE 700 MB.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY...WITH A FEW
REVERSE DIRECTION CLOUD LINES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MIDDLE FLORIDA
KEYS AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE
ALREADY NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. KEY
WEST RADAR DETECTS THE LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING
INTO GMZ-034...ABOUT 20 NM WEST OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...THE AXIS OF THE COLD CORE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS STEADY MIGRATION EASTWARD
THROUGH TODAY...MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND ONLY
SLOWLY EAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...NOT ACTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE KEYS
UNTIL BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. GIVEN ABOVE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND LARGE
AMOUNT OF PREFRONTAL CONVECTION NOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON AND LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR IN SITU
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CRUX OF THIS ACTIVITY DURING THIS EVENING.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SOUNDING AND THE PROFILE OF AVAILABLE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WE ANTICIPATE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...IN EXCESS OF 40
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD...THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CLOCK TO
BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND FRESHEN TO BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THIS EVENING. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT MAY
LULL AT TIMES...WITH WINDS CLOCKING TO NORTH AND WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY...PASSING THROUGH THE KEYS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES...AS
WELL AS POOR VISIBILITY IN BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. SMALL CRAFT WILL
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS VEER FROM SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO BETWEEN
WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15 TO
20 KNOTS LATE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ALL
WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG NORTHWEST TO
NORTH WINDS...SUSTAINED AS HIGH AS 25 KNOTS. THESE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON ALL
KEYS WATERS...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA.

&&
.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/28TH...OUTSIDE OF A SPELL OR TWO OF MVFR CONDITIONS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINAL THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY. THEREAFTER...THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE...WHILE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SLOWLY INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE ATTM.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................APA
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR...........VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KMLB 271343
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING MID DAY INTO AFTERNOON...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...

CURRENT-TODAY...AXIS OF A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT 00Z.

EARLY MORNING BAND OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION HAD SHIFTED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THERE WAS LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH.  SOME DECREASE IN DEW POINTS OCCURRED BEHIND THIS
PRE FRONTAL BAND...AND THE TAMPA SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.19 INCHES.
HOWEVER...STORMS WERE STREAKING EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
AHEAD OF TROUGH ALOFT.  THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT/MOVE AWAY IN
THE SOUTH WHILE NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S
BEFORE DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVE BACK OVER.  THEREFORE...SUFFICIENT
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR ONGOING STORMS TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH ASHORE...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE PENINSULA.  SO OUR CURRENT HIGH POPS AROUND 80S PERCENT LOOK
GOOD.

DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL.  STILL
THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG FOR THESE PARTS...45-50
KNOTS...SO FAST MOVING CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
WHICH SHOWS A FEW MAX GUSTS 50-60 KNOTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA.  LAPSE RATES LOOK STEEP ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR COIN
SIZED HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND MINUS 12 CELSIUS. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTH...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z FROM ABOUT THE CAPE TO OKEECHOBEE AND TREASURE
COAST. WEST WINDS IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ADVECT A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IS ANTICIPATED AFTER
14Z UNTIL CONVECTION AND RAIN COOLING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TAFS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARDS THE LATEST HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING OF
STORMS ARRIVING...16-17Z. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS...HAIL AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS/FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THE STORMS WILL
END AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...NORTHERN AREAS BY 22Z AND
SOUTHERN AREAS BY AROUND 00Z.  SHOWERS MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT...THEN IT WILL CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
FAST MOVING STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...
CROSSING THE COAST AND MOVING WELL OFFSHORE.  SEEK SAFE HARBOR WELL
IN ADVANCE. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY FOR WIND GUSTS 35-45
KNOTS WITH SEVERAL CELLS.

ASIDE FROM THE STORMS...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING DUE
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.

TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR
FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON/CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 271343
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING MID DAY INTO AFTERNOON...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...

CURRENT-TODAY...AXIS OF A STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT 00Z.

EARLY MORNING BAND OF PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION HAD SHIFTED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST AND THERE WAS LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH.  SOME DECREASE IN DEW POINTS OCCURRED BEHIND THIS
PRE FRONTAL BAND...AND THE TAMPA SOUNDING SHOWED A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.19 INCHES.
HOWEVER...STORMS WERE STREAKING EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE EASTERN
GULF JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT
AHEAD OF TROUGH ALOFT.  THE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT/MOVE AWAY IN
THE SOUTH WHILE NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS HEAT UP INTO THE LOWER/MID 80S
BEFORE DEBRIS CLOUDS MOVE BACK OVER.  THEREFORE...SUFFICIENT
HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO ALLOW FOR ONGOING STORMS TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS THEY PUSH ASHORE...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP OVER
THE PENINSULA.  SO OUR CURRENT HIGH POPS AROUND 80S PERCENT LOOK
GOOD.

DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL INCREASE BUT BE MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL.  STILL
THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE STRONG FOR THESE PARTS...45-50
KNOTS...SO FAST MOVING CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR
WHICH SHOWS A FEW MAX GUSTS 50-60 KNOTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA.  LAPSE RATES LOOK STEEP ENOUGH FOR A CHANCE FOR COIN
SIZED HAIL AS 500 MB TEMPS WILL BE AROUND MINUS 12 CELSIUS. THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL-SOUTH...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE THERE.

CURRENT FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK ARE IN GOOD SHAPE AND
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE EARLY EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z FROM ABOUT THE CAPE TO OKEECHOBEE AND TREASURE
COAST. WEST WINDS IN THE EVENING WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
ADVECT A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IS ANTICIPATED AFTER
14Z UNTIL CONVECTION AND RAIN COOLING OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON.

TAFS WERE ADJUSTED TOWARDS THE LATEST HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING OF
STORMS ARRIVING...16-17Z. LIKE YESTERDAY...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS...HAIL AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS/FREQUENT LIGHTNING.  THE STORMS WILL
END AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH...NORTHERN AREAS BY 22Z AND
SOUTHERN AREAS BY AROUND 00Z.  SHOWERS MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS BEHIND
THE FRONT...THEN IT WILL CLEAR OUT.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS EVENING.  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  BOATERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
FAST MOVING STORMS SWEEPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...
CROSSING THE COAST AND MOVING WELL OFFSHORE.  SEEK SAFE HARBOR WELL
IN ADVANCE. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY FOR WIND GUSTS 35-45
KNOTS WITH SEVERAL CELLS.

ASIDE FROM THE STORMS...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERIORATING DUE
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.

TONIGHT-WEEKEND...GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DIMINISH SOME SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR
FOR SMALL CRAFT INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...JOHNSON/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THE EVENING...

.UPATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA AND HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HEATING
TO DESTABILIZE THE LAYER A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWED BANDS OF CONVECTION 150-270 MILES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AGREE WITH STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET
BEING FORCED TO SURFACE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING DECREASING THE THREAT. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 20Z THEN INTO
FORT MYERS AREA AROUND 23Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL BETTER PIN DOWN TIMING IN THE TAF ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF THE RADAR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING PROFILE DEPICTS A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION TO AROUND 2900 FEET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND IS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 9AM AND INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A RESULT OF INCREASING
WINDS FROM 20 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED MIXING LAYER.
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 32 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED.

&&

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON
UPPER AIR/MARINE...10/LAMARRE

LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THE EVENING...

.UPATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA AND HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HEATING
TO DESTABILIZE THE LAYER A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWED BANDS OF CONVECTION 150-270 MILES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AGREE WITH STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET
BEING FORCED TO SURFACE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING DECREASING THE THREAT. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 20Z THEN INTO
FORT MYERS AREA AROUND 23Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL BETTER PIN DOWN TIMING IN THE TAF ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF THE RADAR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING PROFILE DEPICTS A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION TO AROUND 2900 FEET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND IS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 9AM AND INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A RESULT OF INCREASING
WINDS FROM 20 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED MIXING LAYER.
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 32 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED.

&&

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON
UPPER AIR/MARINE...10/LAMARRE

LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THE EVENING...

.UPATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA AND HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HEATING
TO DESTABILIZE THE LAYER A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWED BANDS OF CONVECTION 150-270 MILES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AGREE WITH STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET
BEING FORCED TO SURFACE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING DECREASING THE THREAT. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 20Z THEN INTO
FORT MYERS AREA AROUND 23Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL BETTER PIN DOWN TIMING IN THE TAF ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF THE RADAR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING PROFILE DEPICTS A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION TO AROUND 2900 FEET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND IS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 9AM AND INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A RESULT OF INCREASING
WINDS FROM 20 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED MIXING LAYER.
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 32 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED.

&&

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON
UPPER AIR/MARINE...10/LAMARRE

LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THE EVENING...

.UPATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA AND HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HEATING
TO DESTABILIZE THE LAYER A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWED BANDS OF CONVECTION 150-270 MILES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AGREE WITH STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET
BEING FORCED TO SURFACE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING DECREASING THE THREAT. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 20Z THEN INTO
FORT MYERS AREA AROUND 23Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL BETTER PIN DOWN TIMING IN THE TAF ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF THE RADAR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING PROFILE DEPICTS A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION TO AROUND 2900 FEET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND IS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 9AM AND INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A RESULT OF INCREASING
WINDS FROM 20 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED MIXING LAYER.
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 32 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED.

&&

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON
UPPER AIR/MARINE...10/LAMARRE

LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THE EVENING...

.UPATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA AND HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HEATING
TO DESTABILIZE THE LAYER A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWED BANDS OF CONVECTION 150-270 MILES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AGREE WITH STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET
BEING FORCED TO SURFACE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING DECREASING THE THREAT. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 20Z THEN INTO
FORT MYERS AREA AROUND 23Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL BETTER PIN DOWN TIMING IN THE TAF ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF THE RADAR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING PROFILE DEPICTS A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION TO AROUND 2900 FEET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND IS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 9AM AND INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A RESULT OF INCREASING
WINDS FROM 20 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED MIXING LAYER.
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 32 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED.

&&

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON
UPPER AIR/MARINE...10/LAMARRE

LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 271336
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
936 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THE EVENING...

.UPATE...
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF FORECAST AREA AND HAS
STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BREAKS IN CLOUDS WILL ALLOW HEATING
TO DESTABILIZE THE LAYER A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHTNING NETWORK SHOWED BANDS OF CONVECTION 150-270 MILES OFFSHORE.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT
FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH. AGREE WITH STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. EXPECT ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 40 KNOTS AT 3000 FEET
BEING FORCED TO SURFACE IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST BY EARLY EVENING DECREASING THE THREAT. A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA AROUND 20Z THEN INTO
FORT MYERS AREA AROUND 23Z. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. WILL BETTER PIN DOWN TIMING IN THE TAF ONCE THE
STORMS MOVE INTO THE RANGE OF THE RADAR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
TO VFR AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

&&

.MARINE...
12Z TBW SOUNDING PROFILE DEPICTS A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 25 TO
35 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION TO AROUND 2900 FEET.
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AND IS
OVERSPREADING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 9AM AND INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  SOUTHWEST AND WEST FLOW WILL VEER TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND GENERATE ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
SATURDAY MORNING. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL IMPACT THE MARINE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH DISPERSION INDICIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE A RESULT OF INCREASING
WINDS FROM 20 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS WITHIN THE EXPECTED MIXING LAYER.
DRY AIR MOVES INTO TONIGHT SO NO FOG EXPECTED. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DROPS TO 32 PERCENT WITH GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY ACROSS INLAND
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEAD TO LOW ERC VALUES SO NO FLAG
NEEDED.

&&

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...72/NOAH
DECISION SUPPORT...PAXTON
UPPER AIR/MARINE...10/LAMARRE

LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

..RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

..RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

..RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

..RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KTAE 271100 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [449 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271100 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [449 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271100 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [449 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271100 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [449 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271100 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [449 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 271100 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
700 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY]...

MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF SITES THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS MORNING, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE
RAPIDLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ONCE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT, THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [449 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.


.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270907
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING MID DAY INTO AFTERNOON...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...

CURRENT-TODAY...STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE... COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. DEEPENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPS TO FEED INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RADAR MOSAIC LOOP IS SHOWING A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE EASTERN GULF. THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER WERE DETECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS 15
KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASING QUICKLY TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS AT
2500 FEET AND STAYING THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH 10000 FEET SUGGESTING
FAST MOVING STORMS AND SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING STRONG VORTICITY AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-12C
TO-14C RANGE AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 100 TO 130 KNOT JET
MOVING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING TO A DEGREE WHICH MAY
HINDER STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO A DEGREE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE. HELD THE RAIN COVERAGE TO THE 80 POP OF THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAY. ALL THE MODEL...ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS...GUIDANCE WERE
SHOWING THE FRONT ENTERING LAKE COUNTY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND CLEARING THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE EARLY EVENING. WEST WINDS IN THE EVENING SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND ADVECT A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK
REASONABLE.

SAT-MON...AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE EASTERN CONUS
500 MB TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS SEWD
RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY...INSTEAD OF THE POST-FRONTAL
NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING SOME STRENGTH...THE
SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A PROLONGED SPELL OF DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOL WX INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SAT NIGHT AND UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S SUN NIGHT. SLIGHT MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON.

TUE-THU...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A
VERY WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS
OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT
NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...INTRODUCED A 20 POP ACROSS THE NORTH
WED AFTN AND ALL THE AREA THU. BUT DEEP CONVECTION (THUNDER) IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OF TWO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND N OF KISM-KCOF. MAIN
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS AFT 12Z WITH TEMPO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN/NEAR STORMS/SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OFFSHORE AT 4AM EXPANDING
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTN. SEAS BUILD TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. STRONGER STORMS CROSSING THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BUILD SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM.

SAT-TUE...FRESH TO STRONG NW-NRLY POST FRONTAL BREEZE (NEAR 25KT)
WHICH PUSHES SEAS UP TO 6-8FT ON SAT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO
CENTRAL FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOW AFTN
RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND...M-U20S SAT AND U20S TO M30S SUN. HOWEVER...
SUSTAINED NW-N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD
(15 MPH) AND ERC VALUES ARE ALSO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  50  68  45 /  80  20   0   0
MCO  81  53  70  49 /  80  20   0   0
MLB  83  53  70  49 /  80  20   0   0
VRB  85  55  70  46 /  80  20   0   0
LEE  79  52  69  45 /  80  10   0   0
SFB  81  52  69  48 /  80  20   0   0
ORL  81  53  69  48 /  80  10   0   0
FPR  85  58  71  46 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270907
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING MID DAY INTO AFTERNOON...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...

CURRENT-TODAY...STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE... COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. DEEPENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPS TO FEED INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RADAR MOSAIC LOOP IS SHOWING A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE EASTERN GULF. THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER WERE DETECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS 15
KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASING QUICKLY TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS AT
2500 FEET AND STAYING THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH 10000 FEET SUGGESTING
FAST MOVING STORMS AND SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING STRONG VORTICITY AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-12C
TO-14C RANGE AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 100 TO 130 KNOT JET
MOVING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING TO A DEGREE WHICH MAY
HINDER STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO A DEGREE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE. HELD THE RAIN COVERAGE TO THE 80 POP OF THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAY. ALL THE MODEL...ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS...GUIDANCE WERE
SHOWING THE FRONT ENTERING LAKE COUNTY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND CLEARING THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE EARLY EVENING. WEST WINDS IN THE EVENING SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND ADVECT A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK
REASONABLE.

SAT-MON...AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE EASTERN CONUS
500 MB TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS SEWD
RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY...INSTEAD OF THE POST-FRONTAL
NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING SOME STRENGTH...THE
SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A PROLONGED SPELL OF DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOL WX INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SAT NIGHT AND UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S SUN NIGHT. SLIGHT MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON.

TUE-THU...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A
VERY WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS
OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT
NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...INTRODUCED A 20 POP ACROSS THE NORTH
WED AFTN AND ALL THE AREA THU. BUT DEEP CONVECTION (THUNDER) IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OF TWO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND N OF KISM-KCOF. MAIN
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS AFT 12Z WITH TEMPO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN/NEAR STORMS/SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OFFSHORE AT 4AM EXPANDING
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTN. SEAS BUILD TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. STRONGER STORMS CROSSING THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BUILD SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM.

SAT-TUE...FRESH TO STRONG NW-NRLY POST FRONTAL BREEZE (NEAR 25KT)
WHICH PUSHES SEAS UP TO 6-8FT ON SAT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO
CENTRAL FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOW AFTN
RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND...M-U20S SAT AND U20S TO M30S SUN. HOWEVER...
SUSTAINED NW-N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD
(15 MPH) AND ERC VALUES ARE ALSO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  50  68  45 /  80  20   0   0
MCO  81  53  70  49 /  80  20   0   0
MLB  83  53  70  49 /  80  20   0   0
VRB  85  55  70  46 /  80  20   0   0
LEE  79  52  69  45 /  80  10   0   0
SFB  81  52  69  48 /  80  20   0   0
ORL  81  53  69  48 /  80  10   0   0
FPR  85  58  71  46 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMLB 270907
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING MID DAY INTO AFTERNOON...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...

CURRENT-TODAY...STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE... COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. DEEPENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPS TO FEED INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RADAR MOSAIC LOOP IS SHOWING A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE EASTERN GULF. THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER WERE DETECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS 15
KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASING QUICKLY TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS AT
2500 FEET AND STAYING THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH 10000 FEET SUGGESTING
FAST MOVING STORMS AND SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING STRONG VORTICITY AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-12C
TO-14C RANGE AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 100 TO 130 KNOT JET
MOVING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING TO A DEGREE WHICH MAY
HINDER STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO A DEGREE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE. HELD THE RAIN COVERAGE TO THE 80 POP OF THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAY. ALL THE MODEL...ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS...GUIDANCE WERE
SHOWING THE FRONT ENTERING LAKE COUNTY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND CLEARING THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE EARLY EVENING. WEST WINDS IN THE EVENING SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND ADVECT A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK
REASONABLE.

SAT-MON...AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE EASTERN CONUS
500 MB TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS SEWD
RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY...INSTEAD OF THE POST-FRONTAL
NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING SOME STRENGTH...THE
SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A PROLONGED SPELL OF DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOL WX INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SAT NIGHT AND UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S SUN NIGHT. SLIGHT MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON.

TUE-THU...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A
VERY WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS
OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT
NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...INTRODUCED A 20 POP ACROSS THE NORTH
WED AFTN AND ALL THE AREA THU. BUT DEEP CONVECTION (THUNDER) IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OF TWO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND N OF KISM-KCOF. MAIN
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS AFT 12Z WITH TEMPO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN/NEAR STORMS/SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OFFSHORE AT 4AM EXPANDING
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTN. SEAS BUILD TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. STRONGER STORMS CROSSING THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BUILD SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM.

SAT-TUE...FRESH TO STRONG NW-NRLY POST FRONTAL BREEZE (NEAR 25KT)
WHICH PUSHES SEAS UP TO 6-8FT ON SAT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO
CENTRAL FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOW AFTN
RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND...M-U20S SAT AND U20S TO M30S SUN. HOWEVER...
SUSTAINED NW-N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD
(15 MPH) AND ERC VALUES ARE ALSO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  50  68  45 /  80  20   0   0
MCO  81  53  70  49 /  80  20   0   0
MLB  83  53  70  49 /  80  20   0   0
VRB  85  55  70  46 /  80  20   0   0
LEE  79  52  69  45 /  80  10   0   0
SFB  81  52  69  48 /  80  20   0   0
ORL  81  53  69  48 /  80  10   0   0
FPR  85  58  71  46 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMLB 270907
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING MID DAY INTO AFTERNOON...
...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT...

CURRENT-TODAY...STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE... COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION. DEEPENING
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPS TO FEED INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RADAR MOSAIC LOOP IS SHOWING A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE EASTERN GULF. THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS AT KENNEDY SPACE CENTER WERE DETECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS 15
KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE INCREASING QUICKLY TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS AT
2500 FEET AND STAYING THOSE SPEEDS THROUGH 10000 FEET SUGGESTING
FAST MOVING STORMS AND SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS. GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING STRONG VORTICITY AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...-12C
TO-14C RANGE AND THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 100 TO 130 KNOT JET
MOVING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING TO A DEGREE WHICH MAY
HINDER STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT TO A DEGREE TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE. HELD THE RAIN COVERAGE TO THE 80 POP OF THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAY. ALL THE MODEL...ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS...GUIDANCE WERE
SHOWING THE FRONT ENTERING LAKE COUNTY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN QUICKLY
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND CLEARING THE SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN
THE EARLY EVENING. WEST WINDS IN THE EVENING SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AND ADVECT A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 50S LOOK
REASONABLE.

SAT-MON...AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE EASTERN CONUS
500 MB TROUGH ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER
OF THE LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS SEWD
RATHER THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY...INSTEAD OF THE POST-FRONTAL
NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING SOME STRENGTH...THE
SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN A PROLONGED SPELL OF DRY
AND RELATIVELY COOL WX INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SAT NIGHT AND UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S SUN NIGHT. SLIGHT MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON.

TUE-THU...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A
VERY WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS
OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT
NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...INTRODUCED A 20 POP ACROSS THE NORTH
WED AFTN AND ALL THE AREA THU. BUT DEEP CONVECTION (THUNDER) IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OF TWO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND N OF KISM-KCOF. MAIN
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS AFT 12Z WITH TEMPO LIFR
CONDITIONS IN/NEAR STORMS/SHOWERS.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS OFFSHORE AT 4AM EXPANDING
TO THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE AFTN. SEAS BUILD TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING. STRONGER STORMS CROSSING THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR HIGHER. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT BUILD SEAS 7 FEET OR HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM.

SAT-TUE...FRESH TO STRONG NW-NRLY POST FRONTAL BREEZE (NEAR 25KT)
WHICH PUSHES SEAS UP TO 6-8FT ON SAT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO
CENTRAL FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOW AFTN
RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND...M-U20S SAT AND U20S TO M30S SUN. HOWEVER...
SUSTAINED NW-N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD
(15 MPH) AND ERC VALUES ARE ALSO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  50  68  45 /  80  20   0   0
MCO  81  53  70  49 /  80  20   0   0
MLB  83  53  70  49 /  80  20   0   0
VRB  85  55  70  46 /  80  20   0   0
LEE  79  52  69  45 /  80  10   0   0
SFB  81  52  69  48 /  80  20   0   0
ORL  81  53  69  48 /  80  10   0   0
FPR  85  58  71  46 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM
     EDT SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270849
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
449 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.



.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY] IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF
SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAY, THESE
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT, BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 270849
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
449 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.



.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY] IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF
SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAY, THESE
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT, BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270849
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
449 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A RAPIDLY STEEPENING SHORTWAVE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING
WILL SWEEP SE THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM EAST
TO WEST OVER THE CWA TODAY. AS THIS COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH, GUSTY
NW WINDS ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NW, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S OVER SE AL TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE FAR SE FL
BIG BEND. EVEN AS SOME LATE MARCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTN, TEMPS WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH IF AT ALL, WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COUPLE OF CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD THIS WEEKEND.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA AND
IN THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ZONAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
WILL STALL OVER THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY. POPS WILL BE AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S.



.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY] IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF
SITES THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS PLENTY OF LOW CIGS ARE
LINGERING BEHIND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING THE DAY, THESE
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT, BUT NW WINDS WILL BECOME
QUITE GUSTY AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THESE
WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...

BEHIND A COLD FRONT CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 5 TO 6 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE ON SATURDAY
AND WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS ON ITS WAY TO THE TRI-STATE AREA AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN IN MOST AREAS DURING THE MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO HELP LIFT AND ERODE
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS, WITH SUNSHINE GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGION. FOR TODAY, THE DRY AIR
WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR ANY RED FLAG CONCERNS,
BUT AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
IN FACT, RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW ENOUGH FOR LONG ENOUGH
DURATIONS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS WELL. HOWEVER, SINCE
20FT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 MPH AND ERCS ARE
UNLIKELY TO RECOVER BACK TO THE REQUIRED VALUE OF 37 ON SATURDAY, A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, BUT CONDITIONS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED ONCE LATER ERC OBS AND FORECASTS ARE
RELEASED. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ON THE OTHER HAND, ERC VALUES COULD
RECOVER TO HIGH ENOUGH LEVELS FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED
OVER PARTS OF THE BIG BEND. THEREFORE, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALL AREA RIVERS REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND THERE ARE NO FLOODING
CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  43  65  41  69 /  50   0   0  10   0
PANAMA CITY   67  47  61  46  65 /  30   0   0  10   0
DOTHAN        63  40  60  39  66 /  20   0  10  10   0
ALBANY        65  39  60  39  64 /  30   0   0  10   0
VALDOSTA      71  41  61  39  66 /  50   0   0  10   0
CROSS CITY    74  45  66  42  70 /  70   0  10  10   0
APALACHICOLA  71  46  66  46  68 /  40   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 270826
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
426 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...STRONG STORMS TODAY AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. SURFACE - A COLD FRONT
REACHED FROM NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND CONTINUED TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF-
SHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST RIDGED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING REST OF TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND...ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT...MOVES EAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING IS...THE NATURE
COAST AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING...THE TAMPA BAY REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWEST FL IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT STRONG WINDS. IN
ADDITION INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES TODAY...WITH A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IN EFFECT.

AS NOTED ABOVE THE FRONT EXITS BY EVENING...TAKING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH IT. THE UPPER TOUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SAT
WITH A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF TONIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST SUN
WITH COOL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL
AND DRY DAY TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AS A BACKDOOR-TYPE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK AND DOES NOT REALLY MAKE IT SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR MAINLY CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH VCNTY SHRA/TSRA...WILL
SPREAD SOUTH DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF
THE DAY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND MORE TSRA WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. SHRA AND
TSRA EXIT BY SUNSET AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ON GULF WATERS. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BUT THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE RAIN
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ELEVATED AND ERC VALUES LOW FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN SAT AND
INCREASE SUN...BUT THE ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  56  67  51 /  80   0   0   0
FMY  82  61  74  51 /  80  20   0   0
GIF  79  53  70  48 /  80  10   0   0
SRQ  77  61  69  51 /  90  10   0   0
BKV  77  50  67  41 /  80   0   0   0
SPG  77  61  68  56 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270826
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
426 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...STRONG STORMS TODAY AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. SURFACE - A COLD FRONT
REACHED FROM NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND CONTINUED TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF-
SHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST RIDGED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING REST OF TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND...ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT...MOVES EAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING IS...THE NATURE
COAST AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING...THE TAMPA BAY REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWEST FL IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT STRONG WINDS. IN
ADDITION INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES TODAY...WITH A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IN EFFECT.

AS NOTED ABOVE THE FRONT EXITS BY EVENING...TAKING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH IT. THE UPPER TOUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SAT
WITH A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF TONIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST SUN
WITH COOL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL
AND DRY DAY TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AS A BACKDOOR-TYPE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK AND DOES NOT REALLY MAKE IT SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR MAINLY CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH VCNTY SHRA/TSRA...WILL
SPREAD SOUTH DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF
THE DAY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND MORE TSRA WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. SHRA AND
TSRA EXIT BY SUNSET AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ON GULF WATERS. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BUT THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE RAIN
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ELEVATED AND ERC VALUES LOW FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN SAT AND
INCREASE SUN...BUT THE ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  56  67  51 /  80   0   0   0
FMY  82  61  74  51 /  80  20   0   0
GIF  79  53  70  48 /  80  10   0   0
SRQ  77  61  69  51 /  90  10   0   0
BKV  77  50  67  41 /  80   0   0   0
SPG  77  61  68  56 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270826
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
426 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...STRONG STORMS TODAY AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. SURFACE - A COLD FRONT
REACHED FROM NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND CONTINUED TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF-
SHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST RIDGED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING REST OF TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND...ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT...MOVES EAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING IS...THE NATURE
COAST AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING...THE TAMPA BAY REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWEST FL IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT STRONG WINDS. IN
ADDITION INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES TODAY...WITH A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IN EFFECT.

AS NOTED ABOVE THE FRONT EXITS BY EVENING...TAKING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH IT. THE UPPER TOUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SAT
WITH A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF TONIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST SUN
WITH COOL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL
AND DRY DAY TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AS A BACKDOOR-TYPE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK AND DOES NOT REALLY MAKE IT SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR MAINLY CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH VCNTY SHRA/TSRA...WILL
SPREAD SOUTH DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF
THE DAY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND MORE TSRA WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. SHRA AND
TSRA EXIT BY SUNSET AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ON GULF WATERS. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BUT THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE RAIN
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ELEVATED AND ERC VALUES LOW FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN SAT AND
INCREASE SUN...BUT THE ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  56  67  51 /  80   0   0   0
FMY  82  61  74  51 /  80  20   0   0
GIF  79  53  70  48 /  80  10   0   0
SRQ  77  61  69  51 /  90  10   0   0
BKV  77  50  67  41 /  80   0   0   0
SPG  77  61  68  56 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270826
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
426 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...STRONG STORMS TODAY AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- LONG WAVE TROUGH STRETCHED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. SURFACE - A COLD FRONT
REACHED FROM NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND CONTINUED TO THE SOUTHWEST GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF-
SHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST RIDGED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
A PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING REST OF TONIGHT. THESE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND...ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT...MOVES EAST. THE CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING IS...THE NATURE
COAST AFTER SUNRISE THROUGH LATE MORNING...THE TAMPA BAY REGION
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOUTHWEST FL IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING LIFT AND MID-LEVEL
FLOW AS THE TROUGH AND FRONT APPROACH WILL SUPPORT A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT STRONG WINDS. IN
ADDITION INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENT AT AREA BEACHES TODAY...WITH A BEACH HAZARD
STATEMENT IN EFFECT.

AS NOTED ABOVE THE FRONT EXITS BY EVENING...TAKING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH IT. THE UPPER TOUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SAT
WITH A DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF TONIGHT THEN SHIFTS EAST SUN
WITH COOL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER COOL
AND DRY DAY TO END THE WEEKEND...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AS A BACKDOOR-TYPE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO BE RATHER WEAK AND DOES NOT REALLY MAKE IT SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR MAINLY CIGS ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS...WITH VCNTY SHRA/TSRA...WILL
SPREAD SOUTH DURING THE REST OF TONIGHT AND CONTINUE DURING THE REST OF
THE DAY. WIDESPREAD SHRA AND MORE TSRA WILL OCCUR FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. SHRA AND
TSRA EXIT BY SUNSET AND WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON ON GULF WATERS. THESE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT MORNING BUT THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE GULF FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE RAIN
WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ELEVATED AND ERC VALUES LOW FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN SAT AND
INCREASE SUN...BUT THE ERC VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  56  67  51 /  80   0   0   0
FMY  82  61  74  51 /  80  20   0   0
GIF  79  53  70  48 /  80  10   0   0
SRQ  77  61  69  51 /  90  10   0   0
BKV  77  50  67  41 /  80   0   0   0
SPG  77  61  68  56 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
     COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
     OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 270806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 270806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270755
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270755
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....23/SK



000
FXUS62 KKEY 270720
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
STARTING CLOSE TO HOME WE FIND A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE KEYS MARINE AREA.
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS IS JUST MAKING IT INTO THE 250 NM RANGE OF
THE KBYX RADAR...AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT THIS
HOUR. A BROADER VIEW FROM SATELLITE WE CAN SEE THE REASON FOR THE
GUSTINESS. FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE FIND A DISTINCT AND DEEP
FEATURE THAT WAS LIKELY A COLD POOL DROPPING OUT OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WEST OF TAMPA. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
INDICATED IN THE EVENING SOUNDING WITH 1.45 INCHES OF PWAT. ALSO
SHOWN IN THE SOUNDING IS SOME WEAK LIFT.

.FORECAST...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND EXTRAPOLATING THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE...HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS ONLY IN THIS
VERSION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP WEST OF NAPLES...HAVE INCREASED WINDS EARLIER...BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TODAY. GUIDANCE...BOTH MESO AND SYNOPTIC SCALE...HAVE
SUGGESTED A BURST OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT...AND SUSPECT
THAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...BUT
THINK THAT THIS MAY BE OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT. WILL KEEP THE INCREASING TREND FOR LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE THETA PROFILE IS WEAK TO MODERATE
WITH A LIMIT FOR MOISTURE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD NOT
LEAD TO ADEQUATE LIFTING TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 60Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IN ITS WAKE. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MOVING OVER
THE WARMER WATERS AROUND THE KEYS THE AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.

MOST OF THE DISCUSSION IS FOCUSED ON THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE
KEYS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE MUCH LESS MISHEGAS AS THE
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE CAROLINA COAST...REINFORCING THE RIDGING FOR THE
KEYS. THIS TURNS WINDS MORE EASTERLY WHILE INCREASING WINDS A BIT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN EASTERLIES...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WILL SEND OUTFLOWS TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A ROBUST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...FRESHENING WINDS WHILE TURNING THEM AROUND THE COMPASS ROSE
FROM SOUTH THROUGH NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES PAST...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON ALL KEYS WATERS...AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALL
ADVISORY AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS SHOULD BE RESCINDED...AND NONE
WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND
MTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1940...2.07 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MARCH 27TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 75 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  70  73  63 / 60 50 -  -
MARATHON  88  69  74  62 / 60 50 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270720
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
STARTING CLOSE TO HOME WE FIND A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE KEYS MARINE AREA.
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS IS JUST MAKING IT INTO THE 250 NM RANGE OF
THE KBYX RADAR...AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT THIS
HOUR. A BROADER VIEW FROM SATELLITE WE CAN SEE THE REASON FOR THE
GUSTINESS. FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE FIND A DISTINCT AND DEEP
FEATURE THAT WAS LIKELY A COLD POOL DROPPING OUT OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WEST OF TAMPA. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
INDICATED IN THE EVENING SOUNDING WITH 1.45 INCHES OF PWAT. ALSO
SHOWN IN THE SOUNDING IS SOME WEAK LIFT.

.FORECAST...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND EXTRAPOLATING THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE...HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS ONLY IN THIS
VERSION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP WEST OF NAPLES...HAVE INCREASED WINDS EARLIER...BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TODAY. GUIDANCE...BOTH MESO AND SYNOPTIC SCALE...HAVE
SUGGESTED A BURST OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT...AND SUSPECT
THAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...BUT
THINK THAT THIS MAY BE OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT. WILL KEEP THE INCREASING TREND FOR LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE THETA PROFILE IS WEAK TO MODERATE
WITH A LIMIT FOR MOISTURE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD NOT
LEAD TO ADEQUATE LIFTING TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 60Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IN ITS WAKE. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MOVING OVER
THE WARMER WATERS AROUND THE KEYS THE AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.

MOST OF THE DISCUSSION IS FOCUSED ON THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE
KEYS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE MUCH LESS MISHEGAS AS THE
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE CAROLINA COAST...REINFORCING THE RIDGING FOR THE
KEYS. THIS TURNS WINDS MORE EASTERLY WHILE INCREASING WINDS A BIT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN EASTERLIES...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WILL SEND OUTFLOWS TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A ROBUST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...FRESHENING WINDS WHILE TURNING THEM AROUND THE COMPASS ROSE
FROM SOUTH THROUGH NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES PAST...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON ALL KEYS WATERS...AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALL
ADVISORY AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS SHOULD BE RESCINDED...AND NONE
WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND
MTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1940...2.07 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MARCH 27TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 75 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  70  73  63 / 60 50 -  -
MARATHON  88  69  74  62 / 60 50 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270720
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
STARTING CLOSE TO HOME WE FIND A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE KEYS MARINE AREA.
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS IS JUST MAKING IT INTO THE 250 NM RANGE OF
THE KBYX RADAR...AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT THIS
HOUR. A BROADER VIEW FROM SATELLITE WE CAN SEE THE REASON FOR THE
GUSTINESS. FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE FIND A DISTINCT AND DEEP
FEATURE THAT WAS LIKELY A COLD POOL DROPPING OUT OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WEST OF TAMPA. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
INDICATED IN THE EVENING SOUNDING WITH 1.45 INCHES OF PWAT. ALSO
SHOWN IN THE SOUNDING IS SOME WEAK LIFT.

.FORECAST...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND EXTRAPOLATING THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE...HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS ONLY IN THIS
VERSION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP WEST OF NAPLES...HAVE INCREASED WINDS EARLIER...BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TODAY. GUIDANCE...BOTH MESO AND SYNOPTIC SCALE...HAVE
SUGGESTED A BURST OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT...AND SUSPECT
THAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...BUT
THINK THAT THIS MAY BE OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT. WILL KEEP THE INCREASING TREND FOR LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE THETA PROFILE IS WEAK TO MODERATE
WITH A LIMIT FOR MOISTURE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD NOT
LEAD TO ADEQUATE LIFTING TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 60Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IN ITS WAKE. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MOVING OVER
THE WARMER WATERS AROUND THE KEYS THE AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.

MOST OF THE DISCUSSION IS FOCUSED ON THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE
KEYS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE MUCH LESS MISHEGAS AS THE
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE CAROLINA COAST...REINFORCING THE RIDGING FOR THE
KEYS. THIS TURNS WINDS MORE EASTERLY WHILE INCREASING WINDS A BIT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN EASTERLIES...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WILL SEND OUTFLOWS TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A ROBUST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...FRESHENING WINDS WHILE TURNING THEM AROUND THE COMPASS ROSE
FROM SOUTH THROUGH NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES PAST...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON ALL KEYS WATERS...AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALL
ADVISORY AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS SHOULD BE RESCINDED...AND NONE
WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND
MTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1940...2.07 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MARCH 27TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 75 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  70  73  63 / 60 50 -  -
MARATHON  88  69  74  62 / 60 50 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 270720
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
STARTING CLOSE TO HOME WE FIND A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE KEYS MARINE AREA.
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS IS JUST MAKING IT INTO THE 250 NM RANGE OF
THE KBYX RADAR...AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT THIS
HOUR. A BROADER VIEW FROM SATELLITE WE CAN SEE THE REASON FOR THE
GUSTINESS. FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE FIND A DISTINCT AND DEEP
FEATURE THAT WAS LIKELY A COLD POOL DROPPING OUT OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WEST OF TAMPA. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
INDICATED IN THE EVENING SOUNDING WITH 1.45 INCHES OF PWAT. ALSO
SHOWN IN THE SOUNDING IS SOME WEAK LIFT.

.FORECAST...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND EXTRAPOLATING THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE...HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS ONLY IN THIS
VERSION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP WEST OF NAPLES...HAVE INCREASED WINDS EARLIER...BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TODAY. GUIDANCE...BOTH MESO AND SYNOPTIC SCALE...HAVE
SUGGESTED A BURST OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT...AND SUSPECT
THAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...BUT
THINK THAT THIS MAY BE OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT. WILL KEEP THE INCREASING TREND FOR LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE THETA PROFILE IS WEAK TO MODERATE
WITH A LIMIT FOR MOISTURE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD NOT
LEAD TO ADEQUATE LIFTING TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 60Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IN ITS WAKE. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MOVING OVER
THE WARMER WATERS AROUND THE KEYS THE AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.

MOST OF THE DISCUSSION IS FOCUSED ON THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE
KEYS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE MUCH LESS MISHEGAS AS THE
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE CAROLINA COAST...REINFORCING THE RIDGING FOR THE
KEYS. THIS TURNS WINDS MORE EASTERLY WHILE INCREASING WINDS A BIT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN EASTERLIES...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WILL SEND OUTFLOWS TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A ROBUST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...FRESHENING WINDS WHILE TURNING THEM AROUND THE COMPASS ROSE
FROM SOUTH THROUGH NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES PAST...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON ALL KEYS WATERS...AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALL
ADVISORY AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS SHOULD BE RESCINDED...AND NONE
WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND
MTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1940...2.07 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MARCH 27TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 75 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  70  73  63 / 60 50 -  -
MARATHON  88  69  74  62 / 60 50 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 270720
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
STARTING CLOSE TO HOME WE FIND A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE KEYS MARINE AREA.
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS IS JUST MAKING IT INTO THE 250 NM RANGE OF
THE KBYX RADAR...AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT THIS
HOUR. A BROADER VIEW FROM SATELLITE WE CAN SEE THE REASON FOR THE
GUSTINESS. FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE FIND A DISTINCT AND DEEP
FEATURE THAT WAS LIKELY A COLD POOL DROPPING OUT OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WEST OF TAMPA. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
INDICATED IN THE EVENING SOUNDING WITH 1.45 INCHES OF PWAT. ALSO
SHOWN IN THE SOUNDING IS SOME WEAK LIFT.

.FORECAST...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND EXTRAPOLATING THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE...HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS ONLY IN THIS
VERSION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP WEST OF NAPLES...HAVE INCREASED WINDS EARLIER...BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TODAY. GUIDANCE...BOTH MESO AND SYNOPTIC SCALE...HAVE
SUGGESTED A BURST OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT...AND SUSPECT
THAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...BUT
THINK THAT THIS MAY BE OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT. WILL KEEP THE INCREASING TREND FOR LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE THETA PROFILE IS WEAK TO MODERATE
WITH A LIMIT FOR MOISTURE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD NOT
LEAD TO ADEQUATE LIFTING TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 60Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IN ITS WAKE. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MOVING OVER
THE WARMER WATERS AROUND THE KEYS THE AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.

MOST OF THE DISCUSSION IS FOCUSED ON THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE
KEYS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE MUCH LESS MISHEGAS AS THE
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE CAROLINA COAST...REINFORCING THE RIDGING FOR THE
KEYS. THIS TURNS WINDS MORE EASTERLY WHILE INCREASING WINDS A BIT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN EASTERLIES...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WILL SEND OUTFLOWS TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A ROBUST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...FRESHENING WINDS WHILE TURNING THEM AROUND THE COMPASS ROSE
FROM SOUTH THROUGH NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES PAST...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON ALL KEYS WATERS...AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALL
ADVISORY AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS SHOULD BE RESCINDED...AND NONE
WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND
MTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1940...2.07 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MARCH 27TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 75 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  70  73  63 / 60 50 -  -
MARATHON  88  69  74  62 / 60 50 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 270720
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
STARTING CLOSE TO HOME WE FIND A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE KEYS MARINE AREA.
ANOTHER LINE OF SHOWERS IS JUST MAKING IT INTO THE 250 NM RANGE OF
THE KBYX RADAR...AND MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT THIS
HOUR. A BROADER VIEW FROM SATELLITE WE CAN SEE THE REASON FOR THE
GUSTINESS. FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE FIND A DISTINCT AND DEEP
FEATURE THAT WAS LIKELY A COLD POOL DROPPING OUT OF EARLIER
CONVECTION WEST OF TAMPA. THERE IS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS
INDICATED IN THE EVENING SOUNDING WITH 1.45 INCHES OF PWAT. ALSO
SHOWN IN THE SOUNDING IS SOME WEAK LIFT.

.FORECAST...
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND EXTRAPOLATING THE
ARRIVAL OF THE PRE-FRONTAL LINE...HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS ONLY IN THIS
VERSION OF THE FORECAST. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP WEST OF NAPLES...HAVE INCREASED WINDS EARLIER...BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TODAY. GUIDANCE...BOTH MESO AND SYNOPTIC SCALE...HAVE
SUGGESTED A BURST OF WINDS AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL FRONT...AND SUSPECT
THAT THE GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE...BUT
THINK THAT THIS MAY BE OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE FRONT. WILL KEEP THE INCREASING TREND FOR LIKELY SHOWERS WITH THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE THETA PROFILE IS WEAK TO MODERATE
WITH A LIMIT FOR MOISTURE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...WHICH WOULD NOT
LEAD TO ADEQUATE LIFTING TO INCREASE THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 60Z AND 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES IN ITS WAKE. AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER THIS EVENING...THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. DECENT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR MOVING OVER
THE WARMER WATERS AROUND THE KEYS THE AREA...EXPECT WINDS TO SURGE TO
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY.

MOST OF THE DISCUSSION IS FOCUSED ON THE FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE
KEYS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE MUCH LESS MISHEGAS AS THE
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CROSSING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVER THE CAROLINA COAST...REINFORCING THE RIDGING FOR THE
KEYS. THIS TURNS WINDS MORE EASTERLY WHILE INCREASING WINDS A BIT
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASE IN EASTERLIES...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WILL SEND OUTFLOWS TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THIS
MORNING...AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY CROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. A ROBUST AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...FRESHENING WINDS WHILE TURNING THEM AROUND THE COMPASS ROSE
FROM SOUTH THROUGH NORTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE REQUIRED FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. AS THE
FRONT MOVES PAST...EXPECT FRESH TO STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ON ALL KEYS WATERS...AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH SUNDAY OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BY SUNDAY NIGHT ALL
ADVISORY AND CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS SHOULD BE RESCINDED...AND NONE
WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND
MTH AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1940...2.07 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MARCH 27TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 75 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  70  73  63 / 60 50 -  -
MARATHON  88  69  74  62 / 60 50 -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 270711
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE IN MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE GA COASTAL WATERS
TO NE FL...TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SWATH OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY MORNING. ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TSTMS WITH THE WAVE THIS MORNING...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM BY LATE MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
INTERIOR SE GA BY MID/LATE MORNING...CROSSING NE FL EARLY
IN THE AFTN...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH
DECENT MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING...WITH POPS
DECREASING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN. SOME DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER...HEATING
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL KEEP TSTM COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE GREATEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTN. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH UPPER 40S/AROUND 50
COAST. WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY COOL FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS. SCATTERED EVENING CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD ADVECTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 30S
INLAND WILL BE COMMON...WITH READINGS 40 TO 45 SOUTH AND COAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...AND
ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE GA
COAST...TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL/GA LINE. MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY DRYING
AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT GNV/VQQ
IN A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS...VFR EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY WORSEN TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR IN
REDUCED CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. PRECIP WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS AFTN. MVFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE PRECIP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WITH TSTM
COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT GNV WHERE PROB30 FOR AFTN TS WILL BE USED. PRECIP
WILL END BY LATE AFTN...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING.
SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  80   0   0   0
SSI  73  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  74  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE



000
FXUS62 KJAX 270711
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE IN MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE GA COASTAL WATERS
TO NE FL...TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SWATH OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY MORNING. ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TSTMS WITH THE WAVE THIS MORNING...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM BY LATE MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
INTERIOR SE GA BY MID/LATE MORNING...CROSSING NE FL EARLY
IN THE AFTN...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH
DECENT MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING...WITH POPS
DECREASING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN. SOME DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER...HEATING
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL KEEP TSTM COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE GREATEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTN. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH UPPER 40S/AROUND 50
COAST. WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY COOL FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS. SCATTERED EVENING CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD ADVECTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 30S
INLAND WILL BE COMMON...WITH READINGS 40 TO 45 SOUTH AND COAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...AND
ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE GA
COAST...TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL/GA LINE. MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY DRYING
AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT GNV/VQQ
IN A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS...VFR EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY WORSEN TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR IN
REDUCED CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. PRECIP WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS AFTN. MVFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE PRECIP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WITH TSTM
COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT GNV WHERE PROB30 FOR AFTN TS WILL BE USED. PRECIP
WILL END BY LATE AFTN...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING.
SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  80   0   0   0
SSI  73  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  74  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE



000
FXUS62 KJAX 270711
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE IN MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE GA COASTAL WATERS
TO NE FL...TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SWATH OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY MORNING. ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TSTMS WITH THE WAVE THIS MORNING...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM BY LATE MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
INTERIOR SE GA BY MID/LATE MORNING...CROSSING NE FL EARLY
IN THE AFTN...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH
DECENT MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING...WITH POPS
DECREASING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN. SOME DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER...HEATING
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL KEEP TSTM COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE GREATEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTN. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH UPPER 40S/AROUND 50
COAST. WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY COOL FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS. SCATTERED EVENING CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD ADVECTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 30S
INLAND WILL BE COMMON...WITH READINGS 40 TO 45 SOUTH AND COAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...AND
ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE GA
COAST...TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL/GA LINE. MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY DRYING
AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT GNV/VQQ
IN A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS...VFR EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY WORSEN TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR IN
REDUCED CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. PRECIP WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS AFTN. MVFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE PRECIP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WITH TSTM
COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT GNV WHERE PROB30 FOR AFTN TS WILL BE USED. PRECIP
WILL END BY LATE AFTN...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING.
SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  80   0   0   0
SSI  73  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  74  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270711
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
311 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE...

...MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PRE-FRONTAL WAVE IN MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A
SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE GA COASTAL WATERS
TO NE FL...TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SWATH OF PRECIP
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY OFFSHORE BY MORNING. ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL WAVE WILL
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
TSTMS WITH THE WAVE THIS MORNING...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM BY LATE MORNING. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
INTERIOR SE GA BY MID/LATE MORNING...CROSSING NE FL EARLY
IN THE AFTN...EXITING INTO CENTRAL FL BY LATE AFTN. WITH
DECENT MOISTURE POOLING...WILL USE NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
POPS FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE FRONTAL CROSSING...WITH POPS
DECREASING RAPIDLY LATE THIS AFTN. SOME DEEP LAYER INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT...HOWEVER WITH DENSE CLOUD COVER...HEATING
WILL BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE INSTABILITY...THUS
WILL KEEP TSTM COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE GREATEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTN. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

TONIGHT/SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT/SATURDAY. COLDER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 40S INLAND WITH UPPER 40S/AROUND 50
COAST. WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WIND CHILL
READINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE CHILL WILL
PERSIST SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A DRY COOL FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH SATURDAY EVENING...AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS. SCATTERED EVENING CLOUDS WILL BE EXPECTED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A REINFORCEMENT OF COLD ADVECTION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN THE 30S
INLAND WILL BE COMMON...WITH READINGS 40 TO 45 SOUTH AND COAST.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL HELP KEEP SKIES CLEAR...AND
ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST
AREA. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE GA
COAST...TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST MONDAY...A COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH TO NEAR THE FL/GA LINE. MODELS INDICATE THIS BOUNDARY DRYING
AS IT MOVES SOUTH...SO HAVE LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE AT THIS TIME.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S FOR MONDAY.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT GNV/VQQ
IN A SWATH OF LIGHT PRECIP. FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS...VFR EARLY
IN THE OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY WORSEN TO LOW END MVFR TO IFR IN
REDUCED CIGS LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. PRECIP WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE LATE MORNING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIP THIS AFTN. MVFR WILL PREVAIL WITH THE PRECIP
WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WITH TSTM
COVERAGE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL
SITES EXCEPT GNV WHERE PROB30 FOR AFTN TS WILL BE USED. PRECIP
WILL END BY LATE AFTN...WITH SKIES CLEARING THIS EVENING.
SW WINDS 6-12 KT THROUGH MID MORNING WILL VEER TO THE WEST
AND INCREASE TO 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT THIS AFTN.
WINDS WILL BECOME NW 9-12 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THIS MORNING...WITH FLOW VEERING TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST
AS THE BOUNDARY CROSSES THE WATERS. WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTN THROUGH SATURDAY...AND FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH SATURDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  41  60  35 /  80   0   0   0
SSI  73  45  59  41 /  80   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  64  38 /  90  10   0   0
SGJ  74  48  62  45 /  90  10   0   0
GNV  75  44  66  39 /  90  10   0   0
OCF  76  46  68  39 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270655
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DELAYED ONSET/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION...SO
HAVE REMOVED VCSH BEFORE 17Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BRIEF
BUT SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANTED MORE THAN
VCTS/VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MID-MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...TURNING WIND TO NW AT 10-15 KT AFTER 0Z
AND ENDING PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE
LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING, SO KEPT
IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL, WITH
STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  61  74  55 /  60  40   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  75  59 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            88  68  77  59 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           81  62  73  52 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 270655
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DELAYED ONSET/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION...SO
HAVE REMOVED VCSH BEFORE 17Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BRIEF
BUT SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANTED MORE THAN
VCTS/VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MID-MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...TURNING WIND TO NW AT 10-15 KT AFTER 0Z
AND ENDING PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE
LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING, SO KEPT
IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL, WITH
STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  61  74  55 /  60  40   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  75  59 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            88  68  77  59 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           81  62  73  52 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270655
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DELAYED ONSET/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION...SO
HAVE REMOVED VCSH BEFORE 17Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BRIEF
BUT SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANTED MORE THAN
VCTS/VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MID-MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...TURNING WIND TO NW AT 10-15 KT AFTER 0Z
AND ENDING PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE
LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING, SO KEPT
IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL, WITH
STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  61  74  55 /  60  40   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  75  59 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            88  68  77  59 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           81  62  73  52 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KTAE 270301
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1101 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]...

CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR/VFR RANGE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SETTLING INTO IFR LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHOULD SCATTER COMPLETELY BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [337 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND
ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE
20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.


.MARINE...

CAUTIONARY LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT
LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.


.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  71  39  65  45 /  30  40   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   63  67  46  62  50 /  30  30   0  10  10
DOTHAN        52  64  38  62  42 /  70  20   0  10  10
ALBANY        61  66  35  61  42 /  30  30   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      61  73  39  62  44 /  30  60   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    65  75  42  66  46 /  80  80   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  66  73  46  63  51 /  60  40   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270301
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1101 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]...

CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR/VFR RANGE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SETTLING INTO IFR LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHOULD SCATTER COMPLETELY BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [337 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND
ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE
20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.


.MARINE...

CAUTIONARY LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT
LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.


.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  71  39  65  45 /  30  40   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   63  67  46  62  50 /  30  30   0  10  10
DOTHAN        52  64  38  62  42 /  70  20   0  10  10
ALBANY        61  66  35  61  42 /  30  30   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      61  73  39  62  44 /  30  60   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    65  75  42  66  46 /  80  80   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  66  73  46  63  51 /  60  40   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270301
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1101 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]...

CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR/VFR RANGE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SETTLING INTO IFR LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHOULD SCATTER COMPLETELY BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [337 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND
ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE
20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.


.MARINE...

CAUTIONARY LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT
LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.


.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  71  39  65  45 /  30  40   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   63  67  46  62  50 /  30  30   0  10  10
DOTHAN        52  64  38  62  42 /  70  20   0  10  10
ALBANY        61  66  35  61  42 /  30  30   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      61  73  39  62  44 /  30  60   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    65  75  42  66  46 /  80  80   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  66  73  46  63  51 /  60  40   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270301
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1101 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY]...

CEILINGS WILL BE IN AND OUT OF THE MVFR/VFR RANGE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE SETTLING INTO IFR LATER TONIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE SCATTERED AROUND BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHOULD SCATTER COMPLETELY BY THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [337 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND
ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE
20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.


.MARINE...

CAUTIONARY LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT
LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.


.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  71  39  65  45 /  30  40   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   63  67  46  62  50 /  30  30   0  10  10
DOTHAN        52  64  38  62  42 /  70  20   0  10  10
ALBANY        61  66  35  61  42 /  30  30   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      61  73  39  62  44 /  30  60   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    65  75  42  66  46 /  80  80   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  66  73  46  63  51 /  60  40   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KKEY 270227
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. THIS EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS PLACES RISING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF. THE POLAR JET DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS...THEN
JOINS THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT...A LARGE ZONE OF CYCLONIC...
CONVERGENT...AND CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ACTION ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS INTACT...DRAPED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS. AN AREA OF LATE
EVENING SHOWERS MOVED NORTHEAST OFF THE CENTRAL CUBAN COAST INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE STUNTED SHOWERS HAVE THRIVED WITHIN THE
VEERING WIND PROFILE. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD...SOME ELEMENTS MAY SKIM THE UPPER KEYS. THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL
MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING. WEST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN CLOCKWISE STARTING SOUTH TONIGHT TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AND WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THEY WILL ALSO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AND GUSTY WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS. THIS WILL CAUSE CROSS-WINDS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES AT 020.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270227
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. THIS EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS PLACES RISING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF. THE POLAR JET DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS...THEN
JOINS THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT...A LARGE ZONE OF CYCLONIC...
CONVERGENT...AND CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ACTION ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS INTACT...DRAPED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS. AN AREA OF LATE
EVENING SHOWERS MOVED NORTHEAST OFF THE CENTRAL CUBAN COAST INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE STUNTED SHOWERS HAVE THRIVED WITHIN THE
VEERING WIND PROFILE. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD...SOME ELEMENTS MAY SKIM THE UPPER KEYS. THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL
MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING. WEST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN CLOCKWISE STARTING SOUTH TONIGHT TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AND WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THEY WILL ALSO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AND GUSTY WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS. THIS WILL CAUSE CROSS-WINDS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES AT 020.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270227
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. THIS EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS PLACES RISING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF. THE POLAR JET DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS...THEN
JOINS THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT...A LARGE ZONE OF CYCLONIC...
CONVERGENT...AND CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ACTION ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS INTACT...DRAPED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS. AN AREA OF LATE
EVENING SHOWERS MOVED NORTHEAST OFF THE CENTRAL CUBAN COAST INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE STUNTED SHOWERS HAVE THRIVED WITHIN THE
VEERING WIND PROFILE. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD...SOME ELEMENTS MAY SKIM THE UPPER KEYS. THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL
MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING. WEST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN CLOCKWISE STARTING SOUTH TONIGHT TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AND WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THEY WILL ALSO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AND GUSTY WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS. THIS WILL CAUSE CROSS-WINDS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES AT 020.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270227
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. THIS EVENING`S RAOB ANALYSIS PLACES RISING
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...AND FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF. THE POLAR JET DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO TEXAS...THEN
JOINS THE SUBTROPICAL BRANCH AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS. AS A RESULT...A LARGE ZONE OF CYCLONIC...
CONVERGENT...AND CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ACTION ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS INTACT...DRAPED
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND AREA COASTAL WATERS. AN AREA OF LATE
EVENING SHOWERS MOVED NORTHEAST OFF THE CENTRAL CUBAN COAST INTO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THESE STUNTED SHOWERS HAVE THRIVED WITHIN THE
VEERING WIND PROFILE. IF THEY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD...SOME ELEMENTS MAY SKIM THE UPPER KEYS. THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY BY SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST WILL
MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD...REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
AND THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. GENTLE TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZES WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING. WEST BREEZES WILL FRESHEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH BREEZES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN CLOCKWISE STARTING SOUTH TONIGHT TO
SOUTHWEST IN THE MORNING AND WEST BY MID AFTERNOON. THEY WILL ALSO
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AND GUSTY WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
WILL REACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25
KNOTS. THIS WILL CAUSE CROSS-WINDS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH BASES AT 020.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 270225 AAB
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1025 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS WAS TIMING OF PRECIP/TSTMS AND POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS. FOLLOWING SCENARIO BELOW IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LEANING TOWARD TSTMS IMPACTS SITES LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRI WITH
2 SEPARATE TSTM EVENTS. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND FROPA FRI WILL
PROVIDE HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRI AND
ON AND OFF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN W
AND NW THROUGH DAY AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S. SOME STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FAR BEHIND THESE SHOWERS
AS THE FRONT IS STILL LAGGING BACK NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THE FRONT
WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND SWEEP THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEEDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...FIRST CONVECTIVE EVENT ASSOC W/ APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
IS WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW SHRA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CEN ZONES. BIG CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TIMING AND CHARACTOR
OF NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH STORMS WHICH ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ETC. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING MOST RECENT LOCAL
WRF RUN ARE FOCUSING ON A FRIDAY DAYTIME EVENT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING EITHER A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR THE ACTUAL FRONT. THAT
SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE THE GREATEST THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC FRONT AS THE CONVECTIVE TIMING WOULD LINE UP
WITH BEST UPR SUPPORT AND GREATEST SHEAR. THAT SAID...A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GOMEX SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS TO TLH IS
TRACKING EAST-SE AT PRETTY GOOD CLIP AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 7Z. THIS WILL NOT PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATER ON FRI WITH MAIN UPR DYNAMICS AND
FRONT...BUT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. EVEN SO...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR
OVERNIGHT THAT THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT AVERAGE LOOKING STORMS
PRODUCED 45 MPH EARLIER THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THE
UNCERTAINTY...SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR STORMS
TONIGHT ACROSS NRN HALF AND TOMORROW ACROSS ACROSS OUR SRN HALF.
GONNA HAVE TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A LITTLE BUT FEEL THE SECOND
SCENARIO ABOVE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR (STORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW). THIS OF COURSE STILL MEANS HIGH POPS AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN ORDER TONIGHT AND FRI. HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TWEAK GRID TIMING BASED ON THIS THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...99



000
FXUS62 KTBW 270225 AAB
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1025 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS WAS TIMING OF PRECIP/TSTMS AND POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS. FOLLOWING SCENARIO BELOW IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LEANING TOWARD TSTMS IMPACTS SITES LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRI WITH
2 SEPARATE TSTM EVENTS. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND FROPA FRI WILL
PROVIDE HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRI AND
ON AND OFF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN W
AND NW THROUGH DAY AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S. SOME STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FAR BEHIND THESE SHOWERS
AS THE FRONT IS STILL LAGGING BACK NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THE FRONT
WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND SWEEP THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEEDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...FIRST CONVECTIVE EVENT ASSOC W/ APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
IS WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW SHRA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CEN ZONES. BIG CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TIMING AND CHARACTOR
OF NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH STORMS WHICH ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ETC. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING MOST RECENT LOCAL
WRF RUN ARE FOCUSING ON A FRIDAY DAYTIME EVENT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING EITHER A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR THE ACTUAL FRONT. THAT
SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE THE GREATEST THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC FRONT AS THE CONVECTIVE TIMING WOULD LINE UP
WITH BEST UPR SUPPORT AND GREATEST SHEAR. THAT SAID...A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GOMEX SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS TO TLH IS
TRACKING EAST-SE AT PRETTY GOOD CLIP AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 7Z. THIS WILL NOT PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATER ON FRI WITH MAIN UPR DYNAMICS AND
FRONT...BUT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. EVEN SO...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR
OVERNIGHT THAT THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT AVERAGE LOOKING STORMS
PRODUCED 45 MPH EARLIER THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THE
UNCERTAINTY...SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR STORMS
TONIGHT ACROSS NRN HALF AND TOMORROW ACROSS ACROSS OUR SRN HALF.
GONNA HAVE TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A LITTLE BUT FEEL THE SECOND
SCENARIO ABOVE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR (STORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW). THIS OF COURSE STILL MEANS HIGH POPS AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN ORDER TONIGHT AND FRI. HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TWEAK GRID TIMING BASED ON THIS THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...99



000
FXUS62 KTBW 270225 AAB
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1025 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS WAS TIMING OF PRECIP/TSTMS AND POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS. FOLLOWING SCENARIO BELOW IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LEANING TOWARD TSTMS IMPACTS SITES LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRI WITH
2 SEPARATE TSTM EVENTS. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND FROPA FRI WILL
PROVIDE HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRI AND
ON AND OFF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN W
AND NW THROUGH DAY AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S. SOME STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FAR BEHIND THESE SHOWERS
AS THE FRONT IS STILL LAGGING BACK NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THE FRONT
WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND SWEEP THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEEDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...FIRST CONVECTIVE EVENT ASSOC W/ APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
IS WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW SHRA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CEN ZONES. BIG CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TIMING AND CHARACTOR
OF NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH STORMS WHICH ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ETC. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING MOST RECENT LOCAL
WRF RUN ARE FOCUSING ON A FRIDAY DAYTIME EVENT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING EITHER A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR THE ACTUAL FRONT. THAT
SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE THE GREATEST THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC FRONT AS THE CONVECTIVE TIMING WOULD LINE UP
WITH BEST UPR SUPPORT AND GREATEST SHEAR. THAT SAID...A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GOMEX SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS TO TLH IS
TRACKING EAST-SE AT PRETTY GOOD CLIP AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 7Z. THIS WILL NOT PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATER ON FRI WITH MAIN UPR DYNAMICS AND
FRONT...BUT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. EVEN SO...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR
OVERNIGHT THAT THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT AVERAGE LOOKING STORMS
PRODUCED 45 MPH EARLIER THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THE
UNCERTAINTY...SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR STORMS
TONIGHT ACROSS NRN HALF AND TOMORROW ACROSS ACROSS OUR SRN HALF.
GONNA HAVE TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A LITTLE BUT FEEL THE SECOND
SCENARIO ABOVE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR (STORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW). THIS OF COURSE STILL MEANS HIGH POPS AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN ORDER TONIGHT AND FRI. HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TWEAK GRID TIMING BASED ON THIS THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...99



000
FXUS62 KTBW 270225 AAB
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1025 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS WAS TIMING OF PRECIP/TSTMS AND POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR CIGS. FOLLOWING SCENARIO BELOW IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LEANING TOWARD TSTMS IMPACTS SITES LATE TONIGHT AND AGAIN FRI WITH
2 SEPARATE TSTM EVENTS. WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND FROPA FRI WILL
PROVIDE HIGH PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIGS MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRI AND
ON AND OFF MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN W
AND NW THROUGH DAY AND INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S. SOME STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
PREFRONTAL SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL WATERS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS FAR BEHIND THESE SHOWERS
AS THE FRONT IS STILL LAGGING BACK NEAR NEW ORLEANS. THE FRONT
WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND SWEEP THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY WITH
WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEEDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...FIRST CONVECTIVE EVENT ASSOC W/ APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
IS WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW SHRA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CEN ZONES. BIG CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TIMING AND CHARACTOR
OF NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH STORMS WHICH ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ETC. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING MOST RECENT LOCAL
WRF RUN ARE FOCUSING ON A FRIDAY DAYTIME EVENT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING EITHER A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR THE ACTUAL FRONT. THAT
SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE THE GREATEST THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC FRONT AS THE CONVECTIVE TIMING WOULD LINE UP
WITH BEST UPR SUPPORT AND GREATEST SHEAR. THAT SAID...A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GOMEX SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS TO TLH IS
TRACKING EAST-SE AT PRETTY GOOD CLIP AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 7Z. THIS WILL NOT PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATER ON FRI WITH MAIN UPR DYNAMICS AND
FRONT...BUT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY HAMPER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
POTENTIAL DURING THE DAY. EVEN SO...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR
OVERNIGHT THAT THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT AND SOMEWHAT AVERAGE LOOKING STORMS
PRODUCED 45 MPH EARLIER THIS EVENING. GIVEN ALL THE
UNCERTAINTY...SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR STORMS
TONIGHT ACROSS NRN HALF AND TOMORROW ACROSS ACROSS OUR SRN HALF.
GONNA HAVE TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A LITTLE BUT FEEL THE SECOND
SCENARIO ABOVE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR (STORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN
TOMORROW). THIS OF COURSE STILL MEANS HIGH POPS AND DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN ORDER TONIGHT AND FRI. HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO TWEAK GRID TIMING BASED ON THIS THINKING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...99



000
FXUS62 KTBW 270157 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
957 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...FIRST CONVECTIVE EVENT ASSOC W/ APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
IS WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW SHRA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CEN ZONES. BIG CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TIMING AND CHARACTOR
OF NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH STORMS WHICH ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ETC. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING MOST RECENT LOCAL
WRF RUN ARE FOCUSING ON A FRIDAY DAYTIME EVENT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING EITHER A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR THE ACTUAL FRONT. THAT
SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE THE GREATEST THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC FRONT AS THE CONVECTIVE TIMING WOULD LINE UP
WITH BEST UPR SUPPORT AND GREATEST SHEAR. THAT SAID...A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GOMEX SOUTH OF NEW ORELEANS TO TLH IS
TRACKING EAST-SE AT PRETTY GOOD CLIP AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 7Z. THIS WILL NOT PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATER ON FRI WITH MAIN UPR DYNAMICS AND FRONT...BUT
COULD SIGNIFICATLY HAMPER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING
THE DAY. EVEN SO...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR OVERNIGHT THAT THERE IS A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT AVERAGE LOOKING STORMS PRODUCED 45 MPH EARLIER THIS
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK OF SVR STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS NRN HALF AND TOMORROW ACROSS
ACROSS OUR SRN HALF. GONNA HAVE TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A LITTLE BUT
FEEL THE SECOND SCENARIO ABOVE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR (STORMS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW). THIS OF COURSE STILL MEANS HIGH POPS
AND DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN ORDER TONIGHT AND FRI. HAVE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK GRID TIMING BASED ON THIS THINKING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS MOIST AIR
IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MID-UPPER
TROUGH IN MIDDLE OF U.S. DEEPENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE WEATHER INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EXIST WITH THE FIRST FROM FRANKIN
COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ST JOE BAY SOUTH INTO THE
GULF. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS
MOIST AIR IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON.THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE STATE FRIDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
NW FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY NW-N WINDS TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE SPRING BREAK WEEKEND.
SATURDAY SKIES TO CLEAR WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION MOVING NEWARD KEEPING TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW END DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS.

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...99




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270157 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
957 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...FIRST CONVECTIVE EVENT ASSOC W/ APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
IS WINDING DOWN WITH JUST A FEW SHRA ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACROSS CEN ZONES. BIG CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS TIMING AND CHARACTOR
OF NEXT CONVECTIVE EVENT AS MODELS STRUGGLE WITH STORMS WHICH ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOWS...THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH...ETC. MOST
GLOBAL MODELS AND SOME HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING MOST RECENT LOCAL
WRF RUN ARE FOCUSING ON A FRIDAY DAYTIME EVENT WITH THE MAIN FOCUS
BEING EITHER A PREFRONTAL TROUGH OR THE ACTUAL FRONT. THAT
SCENARIO WOULD PROVIDE THE GREATEST THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
UPR TROUGH AND ASSOC FRONT AS THE CONVECTIVE TIMING WOULD LINE UP
WITH BEST UPR SUPPORT AND GREATEST SHEAR. THAT SAID...A CLUSTER OF
STORMS WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GOMEX SOUTH OF NEW ORELEANS TO TLH IS
TRACKING EAST-SE AT PRETTY GOOD CLIP AND IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT
WILL ARRIVE BY AROUND 7Z. THIS WILL NOT PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE EVENT LATER ON FRI WITH MAIN UPR DYNAMICS AND FRONT...BUT
COULD SIGNIFICATLY HAMPER INSTABILITY AND SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING
THE DAY. EVEN SO...THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR OVERNIGHT THAT THERE IS A
VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
AND SOMEWHAT AVERAGE LOOKING STORMS PRODUCED 45 MPH EARLIER THIS
EVENING. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK OF SVR STORMS TONIGHT ACROSS NRN HALF AND TOMORROW ACROSS
ACROSS OUR SRN HALF. GONNA HAVE TO LET THIS PLAY OUT A LITTLE BUT
FEEL THE SECOND SCENARIO ABOVE IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR (STORMS
TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW). THIS OF COURSE STILL MEANS HIGH POPS
AND DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE IN ORDER TONIGHT AND FRI. HAVE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO TWEAK GRID TIMING BASED ON THIS THINKING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS MOIST AIR
IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MID-UPPER
TROUGH IN MIDDLE OF U.S. DEEPENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE WEATHER INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EXIST WITH THE FIRST FROM FRANKIN
COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ST JOE BAY SOUTH INTO THE
GULF. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS
MOIST AIR IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON.THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE STATE FRIDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
NW FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY NW-N WINDS TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE SPRING BREAK WEEKEND.
SATURDAY SKIES TO CLEAR WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION MOVING NEWARD KEEPING TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW END DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS.

AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...99



000
FXUS62 KMLB 270127
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AFTER DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING SINCE THE
AFTN HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FAST MOVING CONVECTION ALONG WITH SOME
SEVERE HAIL...WIND AND EVEN A WATERSPOUT OCCURRENCE...ALL ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.

CURRENT ACTIVITY ASCD WITH A SECONDARY PASSING WAVE HAS WEAKENED
ALONG WITH AN OBSERVED DECREASE IN LIGHTNING AFTER HAVING MOVED
ASHORE THE GULF COAST AT DUSK. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM OF TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN
HOURS WHILE CONSIDERING THE INCRSG UPR WINDS AND RELATIVELY BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT SHOULD COMMENCE FOR ECFL AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC FORCING ASCD WITH
APCH OF A STRONG JET JUST NORTH OF THE REGION INCREASES RAIN AND
THUNDER CHCS MARKEDLY. EVOLUTION TOWARD A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILE WITH APCH OF THE JET MAXIMA WL FAVOR LOCALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SEVERE DOWNBURST
WINDS AND HAIL.

AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS REALISTIC TO IMPACT THE ECFL
AREA ROUGHLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PERSONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ALERT
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND OR WARNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OF TWO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND N OF KISM-KCOF. MAIN
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. CAUTION STATEMENTS IN PLACE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FOR THE INCRSD GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS. SINCE THEY WILL BE FAST
MOVING...SOME WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/PG



000
FXUS62 KMLB 270127
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AFTER DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING SINCE THE
AFTN HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FAST MOVING CONVECTION ALONG WITH SOME
SEVERE HAIL...WIND AND EVEN A WATERSPOUT OCCURRENCE...ALL ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.

CURRENT ACTIVITY ASCD WITH A SECONDARY PASSING WAVE HAS WEAKENED
ALONG WITH AN OBSERVED DECREASE IN LIGHTNING AFTER HAVING MOVED
ASHORE THE GULF COAST AT DUSK. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM OF TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN
HOURS WHILE CONSIDERING THE INCRSG UPR WINDS AND RELATIVELY BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT SHOULD COMMENCE FOR ECFL AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC FORCING ASCD WITH
APCH OF A STRONG JET JUST NORTH OF THE REGION INCREASES RAIN AND
THUNDER CHCS MARKEDLY. EVOLUTION TOWARD A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILE WITH APCH OF THE JET MAXIMA WL FAVOR LOCALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SEVERE DOWNBURST
WINDS AND HAIL.

AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS REALISTIC TO IMPACT THE ECFL
AREA ROUGHLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PERSONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ALERT
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND OR WARNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OF TWO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND N OF KISM-KCOF. MAIN
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. CAUTION STATEMENTS IN PLACE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FOR THE INCRSD GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS. SINCE THEY WILL BE FAST
MOVING...SOME WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/PG



000
FXUS62 KMLB 270127
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AFTER DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING SINCE THE
AFTN HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FAST MOVING CONVECTION ALONG WITH SOME
SEVERE HAIL...WIND AND EVEN A WATERSPOUT OCCURRENCE...ALL ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.

CURRENT ACTIVITY ASCD WITH A SECONDARY PASSING WAVE HAS WEAKENED
ALONG WITH AN OBSERVED DECREASE IN LIGHTNING AFTER HAVING MOVED
ASHORE THE GULF COAST AT DUSK. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM OF TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN
HOURS WHILE CONSIDERING THE INCRSG UPR WINDS AND RELATIVELY BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT SHOULD COMMENCE FOR ECFL AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC FORCING ASCD WITH
APCH OF A STRONG JET JUST NORTH OF THE REGION INCREASES RAIN AND
THUNDER CHCS MARKEDLY. EVOLUTION TOWARD A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILE WITH APCH OF THE JET MAXIMA WL FAVOR LOCALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SEVERE DOWNBURST
WINDS AND HAIL.

AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS REALISTIC TO IMPACT THE ECFL
AREA ROUGHLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PERSONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ALERT
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND OR WARNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OF TWO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND N OF KISM-KCOF. MAIN
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. CAUTION STATEMENTS IN PLACE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FOR THE INCRSD GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS. SINCE THEY WILL BE FAST
MOVING...SOME WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/PG




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270127
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...ORGANIZED STORMS WITH THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER AFTER DAYBREAK
ON FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION... A SERIES OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING SINCE THE
AFTN HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FAST MOVING CONVECTION ALONG WITH SOME
SEVERE HAIL...WIND AND EVEN A WATERSPOUT OCCURRENCE...ALL ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST.

CURRENT ACTIVITY ASCD WITH A SECONDARY PASSING WAVE HAS WEAKENED
ALONG WITH AN OBSERVED DECREASE IN LIGHTNING AFTER HAVING MOVED
ASHORE THE GULF COAST AT DUSK. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM OF TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND PRE-DAWN
HOURS WHILE CONSIDERING THE INCRSG UPR WINDS AND RELATIVELY BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE.

THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT SHOULD COMMENCE FOR ECFL AFTER DAYBREAK
FRIDAY FROM WEST TO EAST AS PRONOUNCED BAROCLINIC FORCING ASCD WITH
APCH OF A STRONG JET JUST NORTH OF THE REGION INCREASES RAIN AND
THUNDER CHCS MARKEDLY. EVOLUTION TOWARD A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILE WITH APCH OF THE JET MAXIMA WL FAVOR LOCALLY STRONG TO
SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH POSSIBLY SEVERE DOWNBURST
WINDS AND HAIL.

AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS REALISTIC TO IMPACT THE ECFL
AREA ROUGHLY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. PERSONS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND REMAIN ALERT
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND OR WARNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OF TWO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INLAND FROM THE GULF OVERNIGHT MAINLY ALONG AND N OF KISM-KCOF. MAIN
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. CAUTION STATEMENTS IN PLACE OVER THE OUTER
WATERS FOR THE INCRSD GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WATERS. SINCE THEY WILL BE FAST
MOVING...SOME WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

JP/PG




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270120
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...BREEZY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SLOWLY THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF THE GULF. WITH LACK INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND EXITS INTO THE ATLC LATE IN THE DAY.
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE EMBEDDED STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OTHERWISE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF FRONT WILL BUILD W/SW WINDS TO 15-20G30 MPH AT TIMES. MAX TEMPS
WILL PUSH ONLY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE FRI MORNING LOWS...AND WILL
REACH GENERALLY INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z AS RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...WITH LOW IFR CIGS AROUND 500 FT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
10Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AT THE
TERMINALS...WHERE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MAY CREATE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 13Z-14Z...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES TONIGHT CLOSE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MORNING
AND SCEC HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE LEGS. SW/W FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND WILL PUSH
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXPECT THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: BECOMING LOW WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  70  39  61 /  30  60   0   0
SSI  62  73  44  59 /  60  70  10   0
JAX  64  76  43  63 /  40  70  10   0
SGJ  65  78  45  62 /  30  80  10   0
GNV  65  77  44  66 /  40  80  10   0
OCF  66  78  43  66 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270120
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...BREEZY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SLOWLY THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF THE GULF. WITH LACK INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND EXITS INTO THE ATLC LATE IN THE DAY.
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE EMBEDDED STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OTHERWISE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF FRONT WILL BUILD W/SW WINDS TO 15-20G30 MPH AT TIMES. MAX TEMPS
WILL PUSH ONLY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE FRI MORNING LOWS...AND WILL
REACH GENERALLY INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z AS RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...WITH LOW IFR CIGS AROUND 500 FT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
10Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AT THE
TERMINALS...WHERE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MAY CREATE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 13Z-14Z...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES TONIGHT CLOSE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MORNING
AND SCEC HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE LEGS. SW/W FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND WILL PUSH
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXPECT THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: BECOMING LOW WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  70  39  61 /  30  60   0   0
SSI  62  73  44  59 /  60  70  10   0
JAX  64  76  43  63 /  40  70  10   0
SGJ  65  78  45  62 /  30  80  10   0
GNV  65  77  44  66 /  40  80  10   0
OCF  66  78  43  66 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270120
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...BREEZY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SLOWLY THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF THE GULF. WITH LACK INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND EXITS INTO THE ATLC LATE IN THE DAY.
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE EMBEDDED STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OTHERWISE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF FRONT WILL BUILD W/SW WINDS TO 15-20G30 MPH AT TIMES. MAX TEMPS
WILL PUSH ONLY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE FRI MORNING LOWS...AND WILL
REACH GENERALLY INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z AS RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...WITH LOW IFR CIGS AROUND 500 FT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
10Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AT THE
TERMINALS...WHERE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MAY CREATE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 13Z-14Z...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES TONIGHT CLOSE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MORNING
AND SCEC HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE LEGS. SW/W FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND WILL PUSH
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXPECT THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: BECOMING LOW WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  70  39  61 /  30  60   0   0
SSI  62  73  44  59 /  60  70  10   0
JAX  64  76  43  63 /  40  70  10   0
SGJ  65  78  45  62 /  30  80  10   0
GNV  65  77  44  66 /  40  80  10   0
OCF  66  78  43  66 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270120
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...BREEZY WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS AHEAD OF AND ALONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED SLOWLY THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH PUSHING INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE MOIST SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND SCATTERED
ALTHOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE OFF THE GULF. WITH LACK INSTABILITY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY STEADY IN THE 60S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG
FORMATION DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION AND EXITS INTO THE ATLC LATE IN THE DAY.
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE EMBEDDED STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS OTHERWISE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD
OF FRONT WILL BUILD W/SW WINDS TO 15-20G30 MPH AT TIMES. MAX TEMPS
WILL PUSH ONLY ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE FRI MORNING LOWS...AND WILL
REACH GENERALLY INTO THE 70S ACROSS ALL AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z AS RESIDUAL
SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER
06Z...WITH LOW IFR CIGS AROUND 500 FT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS
10Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KNOTS AROUND 2000 FT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AT THE
TERMINALS...WHERE SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS MAY CREATE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. CIGS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 13Z-14Z...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THEN MOVING OVER THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST DURING THE
15Z-21Z TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW FLOW SLOWLY INCREASES TONIGHT CLOSE TO 15-20 KNOTS BY MORNING
AND SCEC HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE LEGS. SW/W FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY AND WILL PUSH
CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND EXPECT THE NEXT
FORECAST PACKAGE TO RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: BECOMING LOW WITH THE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  70  39  61 /  30  60   0   0
SSI  62  73  44  59 /  60  70  10   0
JAX  64  76  43  63 /  40  70  10   0
SGJ  65  78  45  62 /  30  80  10   0
GNV  65  77  44  66 /  40  80  10   0
OCF  66  78  43  66 /  40  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING, BUT STILL
OCCURRING IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH SOME ISOLATED CELLS. BUT
THESE SHOULD ALSO START COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST
OF THE LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING,
SO KEPT IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE,
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

.MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
.STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING, BUT STILL
OCCURRING IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH SOME ISOLATED CELLS. BUT
THESE SHOULD ALSO START COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST
OF THE LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING,
SO KEPT IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE,
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

.MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
.STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING, BUT STILL
OCCURRING IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH SOME ISOLATED CELLS. BUT
THESE SHOULD ALSO START COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST
OF THE LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING,
SO KEPT IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE,
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

.MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
.STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING, BUT STILL
OCCURRING IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH SOME ISOLATED CELLS. BUT
THESE SHOULD ALSO START COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST
OF THE LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING,
SO KEPT IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE,
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

.MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
.STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

..MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
..STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

..MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
..STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

..MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
..STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

..MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
..STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

..MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
..STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

..MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
..STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMLB 262309
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
707 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY...

...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT...

...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO MCS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. A QUITE COMPREHENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING OUT
OF  THE CURRENT COMPLEX SHOULD PROPAGATE A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...POSSIBLY REACHING OUR NORTHERN
AREAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS BASIC SCENARIO HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR MODEL FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO DO NOT SEE
ANY REASON TO ARGUE WITH THAT. WILL SHADE POPS HIGHER IN THE NORTH TO
50 PERCENT. THINK THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND VOLUSIA COUNTY AFTER 06Z.

FRI...EXPECT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS LINGERING IN
THE MORNING FROM THE DIMINISHING PRE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW THAT ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE SLICING ACROSS THE BIG BEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THOUGH. GIVEN THAT IT IS LATE
MARCH AND THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT CONVECTION...WILL OPT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS POPS
NEAR 80 PERCENT AREAWIDE.

INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL CAUSE FAST MOVING CELLS. IF
ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME
ORGANIZED...MEANING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWARD FROM
ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL...WHERE MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE LOW/MID 80S.

FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
ERN CONUS...WITH SFC LOW PRES SCOOTING NEWD OFF THE ERN SEABOARD.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CTRL-SRN CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY ENDING FROM N-S.
MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS SURGES SWD BEHIND THE BDRY. SAT MORNING
LOWS LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW SHOWING M-U40S ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA...WITH L50S TO THE SOUTH (M50S ACROSS
MARTIN/SERN ST LUCIE COS.

AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50 TROUGH
ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER OF THE
LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS SEWD RATHER
THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF THE POST-FRONTAL
NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING SOME STRENGTH...THE
SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED
SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL
BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S
TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S
AND M50S NORTH TO L60S S/E MON NIGHT.

TUE-THU... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A
VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS
OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT
NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA NEXT
THU TO MAINTAIN LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.


&&

.AVIATION...
AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE
GULF AFTER SUNSET AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS MAINLY SOUTHWARD FROM KISM-KMCO-KTIX.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE WATERS. SINCE THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING...SOME
WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.

SAT-TUE...FRESH TO STRONG NW-NRLY POST FRONTAL BREEZE (NEAR 25KT)
WHICH PUSHES SEAS UP TO 6-8FT ON SAT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO
CENTRAL FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOW AFTN
RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND...M-U20S SAT AND U20S TO M30S SUN. HOWEVER...
SUSTAINED NW-N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD
(15 MPH) AND ERC VALUES ARE ALSO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  79  49  67 /  50  80  10   0
MCO  70  78  52  71 /  40  80  10   0
MLB  72  83  50  71 /  40  80  20   0
VRB  67  84  52  72 /  40  80  20   0
LEE  70  77  46  70 /  50  80  10   0
SFB  69  78  50  69 /  50  80  10   0
ORL  71  78  52  70 /  50  80  10   0
FPR  69  85  55  70 /  40  80  30   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI/JOHNSON



000
FXUS62 KMLB 262309
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
707 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY...

...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT...

...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO MCS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. A QUITE COMPREHENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING OUT
OF  THE CURRENT COMPLEX SHOULD PROPAGATE A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...POSSIBLY REACHING OUR NORTHERN
AREAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS BASIC SCENARIO HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR MODEL FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO DO NOT SEE
ANY REASON TO ARGUE WITH THAT. WILL SHADE POPS HIGHER IN THE NORTH TO
50 PERCENT. THINK THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND VOLUSIA COUNTY AFTER 06Z.

FRI...EXPECT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS LINGERING IN
THE MORNING FROM THE DIMINISHING PRE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW THAT ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE SLICING ACROSS THE BIG BEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THOUGH. GIVEN THAT IT IS LATE
MARCH AND THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT CONVECTION...WILL OPT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS POPS
NEAR 80 PERCENT AREAWIDE.

INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL CAUSE FAST MOVING CELLS. IF
ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME
ORGANIZED...MEANING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWARD FROM
ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL...WHERE MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE LOW/MID 80S.

FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
ERN CONUS...WITH SFC LOW PRES SCOOTING NEWD OFF THE ERN SEABOARD.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CTRL-SRN CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY ENDING FROM N-S.
MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS SURGES SWD BEHIND THE BDRY. SAT MORNING
LOWS LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW SHOWING M-U40S ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA...WITH L50S TO THE SOUTH (M50S ACROSS
MARTIN/SERN ST LUCIE COS.

AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50 TROUGH
ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER OF THE
LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS SEWD RATHER
THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF THE POST-FRONTAL
NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING SOME STRENGTH...THE
SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED
SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL
BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S
TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S
AND M50S NORTH TO L60S S/E MON NIGHT.

TUE-THU... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A
VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS
OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT
NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA NEXT
THU TO MAINTAIN LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.


&&

.AVIATION...
AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE
GULF AFTER SUNSET AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS MAINLY SOUTHWARD FROM KISM-KMCO-KTIX.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE WATERS. SINCE THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING...SOME
WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.

SAT-TUE...FRESH TO STRONG NW-NRLY POST FRONTAL BREEZE (NEAR 25KT)
WHICH PUSHES SEAS UP TO 6-8FT ON SAT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO
CENTRAL FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOW AFTN
RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND...M-U20S SAT AND U20S TO M30S SUN. HOWEVER...
SUSTAINED NW-N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD
(15 MPH) AND ERC VALUES ARE ALSO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  79  49  67 /  50  80  10   0
MCO  70  78  52  71 /  40  80  10   0
MLB  72  83  50  71 /  40  80  20   0
VRB  67  84  52  72 /  40  80  20   0
LEE  70  77  46  70 /  50  80  10   0
SFB  69  78  50  69 /  50  80  10   0
ORL  71  78  52  70 /  50  80  10   0
FPR  69  85  55  70 /  40  80  30   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI/JOHNSON




000
FXUS62 KMLB 262309
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
707 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY...

...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT...

...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO MCS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. A QUITE COMPREHENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING OUT
OF  THE CURRENT COMPLEX SHOULD PROPAGATE A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...POSSIBLY REACHING OUR NORTHERN
AREAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS BASIC SCENARIO HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR MODEL FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO DO NOT SEE
ANY REASON TO ARGUE WITH THAT. WILL SHADE POPS HIGHER IN THE NORTH TO
50 PERCENT. THINK THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND VOLUSIA COUNTY AFTER 06Z.

FRI...EXPECT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS LINGERING IN
THE MORNING FROM THE DIMINISHING PRE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW THAT ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE SLICING ACROSS THE BIG BEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THOUGH. GIVEN THAT IT IS LATE
MARCH AND THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT CONVECTION...WILL OPT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS POPS
NEAR 80 PERCENT AREAWIDE.

INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL CAUSE FAST MOVING CELLS. IF
ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME
ORGANIZED...MEANING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWARD FROM
ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL...WHERE MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE LOW/MID 80S.

FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
ERN CONUS...WITH SFC LOW PRES SCOOTING NEWD OFF THE ERN SEABOARD.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CTRL-SRN CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY ENDING FROM N-S.
MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS SURGES SWD BEHIND THE BDRY. SAT MORNING
LOWS LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW SHOWING M-U40S ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA...WITH L50S TO THE SOUTH (M50S ACROSS
MARTIN/SERN ST LUCIE COS.

AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50 TROUGH
ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER OF THE
LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS SEWD RATHER
THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF THE POST-FRONTAL
NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING SOME STRENGTH...THE
SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED
SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL
BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S
TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S
AND M50S NORTH TO L60S S/E MON NIGHT.

TUE-THU... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A
VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS
OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT
NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA NEXT
THU TO MAINTAIN LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.


&&

.AVIATION...
AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE
GULF AFTER SUNSET AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS MAINLY SOUTHWARD FROM KISM-KMCO-KTIX.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE WATERS. SINCE THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING...SOME
WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.

SAT-TUE...FRESH TO STRONG NW-NRLY POST FRONTAL BREEZE (NEAR 25KT)
WHICH PUSHES SEAS UP TO 6-8FT ON SAT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO
CENTRAL FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOW AFTN
RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND...M-U20S SAT AND U20S TO M30S SUN. HOWEVER...
SUSTAINED NW-N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD
(15 MPH) AND ERC VALUES ARE ALSO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  79  49  67 /  50  80  10   0
MCO  70  78  52  71 /  40  80  10   0
MLB  72  83  50  71 /  40  80  20   0
VRB  67  84  52  72 /  40  80  20   0
LEE  70  77  46  70 /  50  80  10   0
SFB  69  78  50  69 /  50  80  10   0
ORL  71  78  52  70 /  50  80  10   0
FPR  69  85  55  70 /  40  80  30   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI/JOHNSON



000
FXUS62 KMLB 262309
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
707 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY...

...TURNING NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT...

...DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...

TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO MCS THAT HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. A QUITE COMPREHENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING OUT
OF  THE CURRENT COMPLEX SHOULD PROPAGATE A BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...POSSIBLY REACHING OUR NORTHERN
AREAS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS BASIC SCENARIO HAS
BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE HRRR MODEL FOR MOST OF THE DAY SO DO NOT SEE
ANY REASON TO ARGUE WITH THAT. WILL SHADE POPS HIGHER IN THE NORTH TO
50 PERCENT. THINK THAT THIS BAND OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND VOLUSIA COUNTY AFTER 06Z.

FRI...EXPECT THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS LINGERING IN
THE MORNING FROM THE DIMINISHING PRE FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION.
THE NAM AND HRRR SHOW THAT ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE
OCCURRING EARLY IN THE DAY CLOSER TO THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL BE SLICING ACROSS THE BIG BEND SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THOUGH. GIVEN THAT IT IS LATE
MARCH AND THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT CONVECTION...WILL OPT FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION OF THE
COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SUPPORT OUR CURRENT FORECAST WHICH HAS POPS
NEAR 80 PERCENT AREAWIDE.

INCREASING DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL CAUSE FAST MOVING CELLS. IF
ENOUGH HEATING OCCURS...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STORMS WILL BECOME
ORGANIZED...MEANING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS.
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL...SO DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS AREAS SOUTHWARD FROM
ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL...WHERE MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REACH
THE LOW/MID 80S.

FRI NIGHT-MON NIGHT...AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
ERN CONUS...WITH SFC LOW PRES SCOOTING NEWD OFF THE ERN SEABOARD.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
CTRL-SRN CWA BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH PRECIP RAPIDLY ENDING FROM N-S.
MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS SURGES SWD BEHIND THE BDRY. SAT MORNING
LOWS LOOK TO BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW SHOWING M-U40S ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA...WITH L50S TO THE SOUTH (M50S ACROSS
MARTIN/SERN ST LUCIE COS.

AS OPPOSED TO TURNING EWD OR PIVOTING NE...THE ERN CONUS H50 TROUGH
ACTUALLY AMPLIFIES A BIT ESEWD WHICH WILL DRIVE THE CENTER OF THE
LARGE COOL SFC HIGH ACROSS THE BREADTH OF THE CTRL CONUS SEWD RATHER
THAN EAST INTO THE ATLC. CONSEQUENTLY....INSTEAD OF THE POST-FRONTAL
NW TO NORTH WINDS VEERING ONSHORE AND MAINTAINING SOME STRENGTH...THE
SFC FLOW WILL VEER AND THEN COLLAPSE AS THE HIGH SETTLES SWD OVER FL
THROUGH SUN NIGHT. THIS IN TURN RESULTS IN AN UNUSUALLY PROTRACTED
SPELL OF DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND MAXES WILL
BY IN THE U60S TO L-M70S WITH MINS IN THE M-U40S SAT NIGHT AND U40S
TO L50S SUN NIGHT...SLIGHT MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH MON...L-M70S
AND M50S NORTH TO L60S S/E MON NIGHT.

TUE-THU... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EWD INTO TUE AS A
VERY WEAK "BACKDOOR" FRONTAL BDRY SAGS INTO NORTH FL...BUT DAMPENS
OUT BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. SFC RIDGE BUILDS BACK WWD AND A BIT
NWD FROM THE ATLC WED-THU WITH WARMING TEMPS. WHILE THERE IS SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE...NOT SURE IF THERE WILL BE APPRECIABLE RAIN
CHCS THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...KEPT IN THE SLGT CHC FOR SHRA NEXT
THU TO MAINTAIN LOCAL/REGIONAL CONTINUITY.


&&

.AVIATION...
AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE
GULF AFTER SUNSET AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH...BUT POSSIBLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRI AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ARE FOR THE CHANCE TO BE ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN IN THE SOUTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS MAINLY SOUTHWARD FROM KISM-KMCO-KTIX.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-FRI...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN POOR TO HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
WILL AFFECT THE WATERS. SINCE THEY WILL BE FAST MOVING...SOME
WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 35 KNOTS OR GREATER.

SAT-TUE...FRESH TO STRONG NW-NRLY POST FRONTAL BREEZE (NEAR 25KT)
WHICH PUSHES SEAS UP TO 6-8FT ON SAT GRADUALLY SUBSIDES FROM SAT
EVENING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS SWD INTO
CENTRAL FL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO LOW AFTN
RH VALUES THIS WEEKEND...M-U20S SAT AND U20S TO M30S SUN. HOWEVER...
SUSTAINED NW-N WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD
(15 MPH) AND ERC VALUES ARE ALSO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  79  49  67 /  50  80  10   0
MCO  70  78  52  71 /  40  80  10   0
MLB  72  83  50  71 /  40  80  20   0
VRB  67  84  52  72 /  40  80  20   0
LEE  70  77  46  70 /  50  80  10   0
SFB  69  78  50  69 /  50  80  10   0
ORL  71  78  52  70 /  50  80  10   0
FPR  69  85  55  70 /  40  80  30   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...LASCODY
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI/JOHNSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261944
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
344 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.REST OF TODAY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ON CURRENT RADAR LOOPS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF SE GA. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.
TEMPS ARE NEAR 75 TO LOWER 80 DEG RANGE.

.TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NRN GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE
DROPS SEWD TOWARD OUR AREA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE CWA. TIMING THIS IS A BIT CHALLENGING AND FOR NOW
HAVE ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE WITH 30-50
PERCENT OVER THE ERN PORTIONS. THESE VALUES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
AND WORDING CHANGED TO REFLECT LOWER CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT AND ANOTHER ONE COMES. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THE
DURATION AND LOCATION SEEMS TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SO WILL LEAVE
OUT AND LET NEXT SHIFT MONITOR. MAY ALSO BE SOME SEA FOG OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THE FOG FCST AND WINDS WILL BE
UP AROUND THE 8-10 KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG INTENSITY TO A
MINIMUM. SOME ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING...AND AGAIN BY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO COLD FRONT.

.SHORT TERM...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG
AND AHEAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL BY EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BUT WITH MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS NE FL WITH
ESTIMATED VALUES OF BETWEEN A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH GUSTING 20-25 MPH BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...CLEARING BEGINNING IN NORTHERN AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING AS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPS FRI NIGHT
WILL DROP NEAR 20 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S ACROSS SE GA AND LOW/MID 40S FOR MUCH OF NE FL.
UNFORTUNATELY WITH NW WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AT
5-10 MPH GUSTING 15-20 MPH TEMPS WILL FEEL COLDER THAN THEY ACTUALLY
ARE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS
WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA TO
LOW/MID 40S IN NE FL AND IN COASTAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL COME UP A
COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER INLAND AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SEA BREEZES
PROGRESS INLAND BOTH AFTERNOONS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP INTO
THE 70S ON MONDAY AS GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR PREVAILS AT THE TAFS AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS OUTSIDE ANY SHOWER OR TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE
OF TSTMS WILL BE AROUND GNV. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST TONIGHT AND HAVE VICINITY WORDING AT THIS
TIME...WITH CHANCE CONVECTION INCREASING LATE TONIGHT BY 09Z AND
CONTINUING ELEVATED THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA PRODUCING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED
TSTMS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW INDICATED IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDS PERIOD
FROM ABOUT 07Z-14Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 15Z WITH WINDS
TURNING FROM SW TO W DURING THE DAY AROUND 10-15G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH SCEC HEADLINED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A MARGINAL SCA POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT AREAL COVERAGE NOT LARGE SO WILL NO HOIST
ONE. WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING EAST SWELLS CONTINUES A MODERATE RISK TODAY.
SURF ESTIMATED AT LEAST 2-3 FT AT TIMES. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON
FRIDAY SO RISK IS LOW ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10-
15 MPH GUSTING 20-25 MPH AND RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 25-30 PERCENT
ALONG WITH ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES...BUT WITH THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EVENT ON FRIDAY GROUND MOISTURE SHOULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CRITERIA FROM BEING MET.


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  68  39  61 /  60  60   0   0
SSI  64  71  44  59 /  50  70  10   0
JAX  64  74  43  63 /  50  70  10   0
SGJ  66  74  45  62 /  40  80  10   0
GNV  64  74  44  66 /  50  80  10   0
OCF  65  76  43  66 /  60  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/GUILLET/



000
FXUS62 KJAX 261944
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
344 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.REST OF TODAY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ON CURRENT RADAR LOOPS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF SE GA. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ATTM.
TEMPS ARE NEAR 75 TO LOWER 80 DEG RANGE.

.TONIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NRN GA TO THE FL PANHANDLE
DROPS SEWD TOWARD OUR AREA AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATE THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING OVER THE
WRN HALF OF THE CWA. TIMING THIS IS A BIT CHALLENGING AND FOR NOW
HAVE ADVERTISED RAIN CHANCES IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE WITH 30-50
PERCENT OVER THE ERN PORTIONS. THESE VALUES MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
AND WORDING CHANGED TO REFLECT LOWER CHANCES AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
OUT AND ANOTHER ONE COMES. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG THE
DURATION AND LOCATION SEEMS TOO DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SO WILL LEAVE
OUT AND LET NEXT SHIFT MONITOR. MAY ALSO BE SOME SEA FOG OVER THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON THE FOG FCST AND WINDS WILL BE
UP AROUND THE 8-10 KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG INTENSITY TO A
MINIMUM. SOME ISOLD TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING...AND AGAIN BY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO COLD FRONT.

.SHORT TERM...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...EXITING TO THE SOUTH BY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ALONG
AND AHEAD THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL BY EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BUT WITH MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS NE FL WITH
ESTIMATED VALUES OF BETWEEN A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT THE SOUTHWEST EARLY IN THE DAY
BETWEEN 10-15 MPH GUSTING 20-25 MPH BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST
AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...CLEARING BEGINNING IN NORTHERN AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERN AREAS FRIDAY EVENING AS SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS PUSHES INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPS FRI NIGHT
WILL DROP NEAR 20 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER
30S/LOW 40S ACROSS SE GA AND LOW/MID 40S FOR MUCH OF NE FL.
UNFORTUNATELY WITH NW WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AT
5-10 MPH GUSTING 15-20 MPH TEMPS WILL FEEL COLDER THAN THEY ACTUALLY
ARE.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL TOPPING OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 60S IN MOST AREAS ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WE HAVE SEEN IN A COUPLE WEEKS
WITH LOW TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA TO
LOW/MID 40S IN NE FL AND IN COASTAL AREAS. MIN TEMPS WILL COME UP A
COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER INLAND AREAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SEA BREEZES
PROGRESS INLAND BOTH AFTERNOONS. MAX TEMPS WILL WARM BACK UP INTO
THE 70S ON MONDAY AS GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR PREVAILS AT THE TAFS AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS OUTSIDE ANY SHOWER OR TSTMS THAT DEVELOP. BEST CHANCE
OF TSTMS WILL BE AROUND GNV. CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FCST TONIGHT AND HAVE VICINITY WORDING AT THIS
TIME...WITH CHANCE CONVECTION INCREASING LATE TONIGHT BY 09Z AND
CONTINUING ELEVATED THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA PRODUCING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED
TSTMS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW INDICATED IFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDS PERIOD
FROM ABOUT 07Z-14Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 15Z WITH WINDS
TURNING FROM SW TO W DURING THE DAY AROUND 10-15G20KT.

&&

.MARINE...SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH SCEC HEADLINED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A MARGINAL SCA POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BUT AREAL COVERAGE NOT LARGE SO WILL NO HOIST
ONE. WINDS LIKELY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LINGERING EAST SWELLS CONTINUES A MODERATE RISK TODAY.
SURF ESTIMATED AT LEAST 2-3 FT AT TIMES. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW ON
FRIDAY SO RISK IS LOW ATTM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10-
15 MPH GUSTING 20-25 MPH AND RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 25-30 PERCENT
ALONG WITH ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES...BUT WITH THE MODERATE
RAINFALL EVENT ON FRIDAY GROUND MOISTURE SHOULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT RED FLAG CRITERIA FROM BEING MET.


&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  62  68  39  61 /  60  60   0   0
SSI  64  71  44  59 /  50  70  10   0
JAX  64  74  43  63 /  50  70  10   0
SGJ  66  74  45  62 /  40  80  10   0
GNV  64  74  44  66 /  50  80  10   0
OCF  65  76  43  66 /  60  80  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/GUILLET/




000
FXUS62 KTAE 261937
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AS OF 18Z...WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THAT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOSTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGER AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN...NEAR THE
RESERVOIRS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EXISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA (80-100 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS). A FEW OF THE STORMS IN
THE EASTERN BIG BEND OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AT A
COUPLE OF OBSERVATION SITES IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AROUND
50 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND
ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE
20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INLAND FROM
THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX
OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER LIKELY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BECOMING MVFR TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT LEAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   63  71  39  65  45 /  80  40   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   59  67  46  62  50 /  70  30   0  10  10
DOTHAN        53  64  38  62  42 /  70  20   0  10  10
ALBANY        57  66  35  61  42 /  70  30   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  73  39  62  44 /  70  60   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    65  75  42  66  46 /  70  80   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  65  73  46  63  51 /  80  40   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



000
FXUS62 KTAE 261937
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AS OF 18Z...WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THAT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOSTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGER AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN...NEAR THE
RESERVOIRS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EXISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA (80-100 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS). A FEW OF THE STORMS IN
THE EASTERN BIG BEND OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AT A
COUPLE OF OBSERVATION SITES IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AROUND
50 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND
ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE
20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INLAND FROM
THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX
OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER LIKELY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BECOMING MVFR TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT LEAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   63  71  39  65  45 /  80  40   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   59  67  46  62  50 /  70  30   0  10  10
DOTHAN        53  64  38  62  42 /  70  20   0  10  10
ALBANY        57  66  35  61  42 /  70  30   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  73  39  62  44 /  70  60   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    65  75  42  66  46 /  70  80   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  65  73  46  63  51 /  80  40   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



000
FXUS62 KTAE 261937
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AS OF 18Z...WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THAT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOSTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGER AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN...NEAR THE
RESERVOIRS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EXISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA (80-100 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS). A FEW OF THE STORMS IN
THE EASTERN BIG BEND OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AT A
COUPLE OF OBSERVATION SITES IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AROUND
50 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND
ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE
20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INLAND FROM
THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX
OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER LIKELY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BECOMING MVFR TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT LEAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   63  71  39  65  45 /  80  40   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   59  67  46  62  50 /  70  30   0  10  10
DOTHAN        53  64  38  62  42 /  70  20   0  10  10
ALBANY        57  66  35  61  42 /  70  30   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  73  39  62  44 /  70  60   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    65  75  42  66  46 /  70  80   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  65  73  46  63  51 /  80  40   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



000
FXUS62 KTAE 261937
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 AS OF 18Z...WITH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THAT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOSTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGER AREA OF MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN...NEAR THE
RESERVOIRS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EXISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA (80-100 PERCENT IN THOSE AREAS). A FEW OF THE STORMS IN
THE EASTERN BIG BEND OR OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OR SO...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE AT A
COUPLE OF OBSERVATION SITES IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES...SO AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AROUND
50 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN FALLING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
TONIGHT AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES. A COLDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE MID 70S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DROP AS LOW AS THE MID 30S FROM AROUND
ALBANY, GA NORTHWARD WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD SE LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
AREAS.

.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY ON
MONDAY. THE FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY AS
THE FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DAMPENING OUT AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL STATES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING... TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE
20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INLAND FROM
THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. EXPECT A MIX
OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER LIKELY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE. EXPECT IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BECOMING MVFR TO VFR BY MID MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE
TO ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DROPPING BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA SATURDAY AND REMAINING LOW AT LEAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
BY SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND CRITICAL LEVELS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...THE FUEL MOISTURE CRITERIA WILL
LIKELY NOT BE MET. RH VALUES OUTSIDE OF FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN
JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON SATURDAY. THUS RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH
DISPERSIONS WILL BE QUITE HIGH DUE TO STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS
MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO
0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST.
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE
MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS
OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   63  71  39  65  45 /  80  40   0  10  10
PANAMA CITY   59  67  46  62  50 /  70  30   0  10  10
DOTHAN        53  64  38  62  42 /  70  20   0  10  10
ALBANY        57  66  35  61  42 /  70  30   0  10  10
VALDOSTA      62  73  39  62  44 /  70  60   0  10  10
CROSS CITY    65  75  42  66  46 /  70  80   0  10  10
APALACHICOLA  65  73  46  63  51 /  80  40   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261916
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
...STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KKEY 261913
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE AXIS OF A DEEP LATE WINTER SEASON POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST TEXAS. DOWNSTREAM
OF THAT FEATURE...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN BENEATH
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT MIDDLE LEVEL...500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY FALLING AT THE KEYS RELATIVE POSITION TO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS...200 MB UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
LOCATED WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL PVA(POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION)
(AT 500 MB) JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS SUCH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DETAILS THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A
LARGE OUTFLOW WITH LIGHTNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM...DETECT A 1028
MB ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH PLAINS. A SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS
COAST...WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER
FROM OFF OF LOUISIANA TO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT

.CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
IS RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS THAN ANTICIPATED...BLOWING 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTY ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT 19 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO KEY
LIGHT...SIGHTED HIGHER ABOVE THE WATER...WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AND
GUSTY ACROSS THE KEYS. RADAR IS FREE FROM ANY SHOWERS ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...A LATE SEASON BREECH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE AIR BEHIND THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
DRIER YET SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL LAST FROM SATURDAY THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WE EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL COME DOWN THIS
EVENING A BIT...WITH GENTLE SOUTH BREEZES EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT GIVEN
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A PREFROTNAL SYSTEM BUT
MAIN ACTION SHOULD ARRIVE DURING FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASE IN
POPS...HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT

WINDS WILL CLOCK TO WEST AGAIN AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE ANTICIPATE A LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS...SOME WITH
LIGHTNING...TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXACT
TIMING IS TRICKY WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS. LATEST NUMERICAL
STATISTICS COMBINED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IN PLACE DO SUGGEST
THAT ELEMENTS OF A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH HI HUMIDITY.
AGAIN...MODELS USUALLY HAVE TROUBLE WITH THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS...BUT GIVEN SUDDEN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...MODEL
FORECAST PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AN 2.00 INCHES AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING LARGE SCALE TROUGH...500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE OLDER OUTPUT
FOR THE ECMWF MOS.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT DUE TO SOME FAST MOVING
SHOWERS. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KNOTS AND DEFINETLY SOME LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS A
SHORT PERIOD OR TWO OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SURFACE TO 700 MB
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS BY MIDNIGHT. SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING FRIDAY EVENING. STRONG COOL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY WILL SLIDE TO THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY...THENCE MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HI TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND UPPER 70S ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP OUT RAIN
CHANCES STILL BECAUSE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AIR WILL BE TOO DRY.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY
MONDAY...WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS
AND GUSTY...TURNING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  84  70  74 / 30 60 50 -
MARATHON  74  88  69  75 / 30 60 50 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 261913
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE AXIS OF A DEEP LATE WINTER SEASON POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST TEXAS. DOWNSTREAM
OF THAT FEATURE...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN BENEATH
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT MIDDLE LEVEL...500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY FALLING AT THE KEYS RELATIVE POSITION TO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS...200 MB UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
LOCATED WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL PVA(POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION)
(AT 500 MB) JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS SUCH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DETAILS THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A
LARGE OUTFLOW WITH LIGHTNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM...DETECT A 1028
MB ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH PLAINS. A SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS
COAST...WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER
FROM OFF OF LOUISIANA TO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT

.CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
IS RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS THAN ANTICIPATED...BLOWING 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTY ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT 19 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO KEY
LIGHT...SIGHTED HIGHER ABOVE THE WATER...WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AND
GUSTY ACROSS THE KEYS. RADAR IS FREE FROM ANY SHOWERS ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...A LATE SEASON BREECH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE AIR BEHIND THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
DRIER YET SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL LAST FROM SATURDAY THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WE EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL COME DOWN THIS
EVENING A BIT...WITH GENTLE SOUTH BREEZES EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT GIVEN
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A PREFROTNAL SYSTEM BUT
MAIN ACTION SHOULD ARRIVE DURING FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASE IN
POPS...HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT

WINDS WILL CLOCK TO WEST AGAIN AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE ANTICIPATE A LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS...SOME WITH
LIGHTNING...TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXACT
TIMING IS TRICKY WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS. LATEST NUMERICAL
STATISTICS COMBINED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IN PLACE DO SUGGEST
THAT ELEMENTS OF A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH HI HUMIDITY.
AGAIN...MODELS USUALLY HAVE TROUBLE WITH THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS...BUT GIVEN SUDDEN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...MODEL
FORECAST PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AN 2.00 INCHES AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING LARGE SCALE TROUGH...500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE OLDER OUTPUT
FOR THE ECMWF MOS.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT DUE TO SOME FAST MOVING
SHOWERS. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KNOTS AND DEFINETLY SOME LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS A
SHORT PERIOD OR TWO OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SURFACE TO 700 MB
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS BY MIDNIGHT. SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING FRIDAY EVENING. STRONG COOL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY WILL SLIDE TO THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY...THENCE MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HI TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND UPPER 70S ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP OUT RAIN
CHANCES STILL BECAUSE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AIR WILL BE TOO DRY.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY
MONDAY...WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS
AND GUSTY...TURNING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  84  70  74 / 30 60 50 -
MARATHON  74  88  69  75 / 30 60 50 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 261913
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE AXIS OF A DEEP LATE WINTER SEASON POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST TEXAS. DOWNSTREAM
OF THAT FEATURE...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN BENEATH
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT MIDDLE LEVEL...500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY FALLING AT THE KEYS RELATIVE POSITION TO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS...200 MB UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
LOCATED WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL PVA(POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION)
(AT 500 MB) JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS SUCH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DETAILS THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A
LARGE OUTFLOW WITH LIGHTNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM...DETECT A 1028
MB ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH PLAINS. A SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS
COAST...WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER
FROM OFF OF LOUISIANA TO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT

.CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
IS RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS THAN ANTICIPATED...BLOWING 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTY ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT 19 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO KEY
LIGHT...SIGHTED HIGHER ABOVE THE WATER...WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AND
GUSTY ACROSS THE KEYS. RADAR IS FREE FROM ANY SHOWERS ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...A LATE SEASON BREECH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE AIR BEHIND THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
DRIER YET SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL LAST FROM SATURDAY THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WE EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL COME DOWN THIS
EVENING A BIT...WITH GENTLE SOUTH BREEZES EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT GIVEN
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A PREFROTNAL SYSTEM BUT
MAIN ACTION SHOULD ARRIVE DURING FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASE IN
POPS...HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT

WINDS WILL CLOCK TO WEST AGAIN AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE ANTICIPATE A LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS...SOME WITH
LIGHTNING...TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXACT
TIMING IS TRICKY WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS. LATEST NUMERICAL
STATISTICS COMBINED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IN PLACE DO SUGGEST
THAT ELEMENTS OF A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH HI HUMIDITY.
AGAIN...MODELS USUALLY HAVE TROUBLE WITH THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS...BUT GIVEN SUDDEN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...MODEL
FORECAST PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AN 2.00 INCHES AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING LARGE SCALE TROUGH...500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE OLDER OUTPUT
FOR THE ECMWF MOS.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT DUE TO SOME FAST MOVING
SHOWERS. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KNOTS AND DEFINETLY SOME LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS A
SHORT PERIOD OR TWO OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SURFACE TO 700 MB
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS BY MIDNIGHT. SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING FRIDAY EVENING. STRONG COOL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY WILL SLIDE TO THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY...THENCE MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HI TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND UPPER 70S ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP OUT RAIN
CHANCES STILL BECAUSE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AIR WILL BE TOO DRY.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY
MONDAY...WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS
AND GUSTY...TURNING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  84  70  74 / 30 60 50 -
MARATHON  74  88  69  75 / 30 60 50 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 261913
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE AXIS OF A DEEP LATE WINTER SEASON POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST TEXAS. DOWNSTREAM
OF THAT FEATURE...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN BENEATH
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT MIDDLE LEVEL...500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY FALLING AT THE KEYS RELATIVE POSITION TO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS...200 MB UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
LOCATED WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL PVA(POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION)
(AT 500 MB) JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS SUCH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DETAILS THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A
LARGE OUTFLOW WITH LIGHTNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM...DETECT A 1028
MB ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH PLAINS. A SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS
COAST...WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER
FROM OFF OF LOUISIANA TO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT

.CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
IS RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS THAN ANTICIPATED...BLOWING 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTY ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT 19 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO KEY
LIGHT...SIGHTED HIGHER ABOVE THE WATER...WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AND
GUSTY ACROSS THE KEYS. RADAR IS FREE FROM ANY SHOWERS ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...A LATE SEASON BREECH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE AIR BEHIND THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
DRIER YET SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL LAST FROM SATURDAY THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WE EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL COME DOWN THIS
EVENING A BIT...WITH GENTLE SOUTH BREEZES EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT GIVEN
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A PREFROTNAL SYSTEM BUT
MAIN ACTION SHOULD ARRIVE DURING FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASE IN
POPS...HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT

WINDS WILL CLOCK TO WEST AGAIN AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE ANTICIPATE A LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS...SOME WITH
LIGHTNING...TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXACT
TIMING IS TRICKY WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS. LATEST NUMERICAL
STATISTICS COMBINED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IN PLACE DO SUGGEST
THAT ELEMENTS OF A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH HI HUMIDITY.
AGAIN...MODELS USUALLY HAVE TROUBLE WITH THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS...BUT GIVEN SUDDEN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...MODEL
FORECAST PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AN 2.00 INCHES AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING LARGE SCALE TROUGH...500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE OLDER OUTPUT
FOR THE ECMWF MOS.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT DUE TO SOME FAST MOVING
SHOWERS. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KNOTS AND DEFINETLY SOME LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS A
SHORT PERIOD OR TWO OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SURFACE TO 700 MB
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS BY MIDNIGHT. SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING FRIDAY EVENING. STRONG COOL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY WILL SLIDE TO THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY...THENCE MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HI TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND UPPER 70S ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP OUT RAIN
CHANCES STILL BECAUSE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AIR WILL BE TOO DRY.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY
MONDAY...WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS
AND GUSTY...TURNING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  84  70  74 / 30 60 50 -
MARATHON  74  88  69  75 / 30 60 50 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 261913
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE AXIS OF A DEEP LATE WINTER SEASON POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST TEXAS. DOWNSTREAM
OF THAT FEATURE...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN BENEATH
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT MIDDLE LEVEL...500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY FALLING AT THE KEYS RELATIVE POSITION TO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS...200 MB UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
LOCATED WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL PVA(POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION)
(AT 500 MB) JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS SUCH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DETAILS THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A
LARGE OUTFLOW WITH LIGHTNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM...DETECT A 1028
MB ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH PLAINS. A SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS
COAST...WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER
FROM OFF OF LOUISIANA TO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT

.CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
IS RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS THAN ANTICIPATED...BLOWING 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTY ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT 19 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO KEY
LIGHT...SIGHTED HIGHER ABOVE THE WATER...WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AND
GUSTY ACROSS THE KEYS. RADAR IS FREE FROM ANY SHOWERS ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...A LATE SEASON BREECH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE AIR BEHIND THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
DRIER YET SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL LAST FROM SATURDAY THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WE EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL COME DOWN THIS
EVENING A BIT...WITH GENTLE SOUTH BREEZES EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT GIVEN
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A PREFROTNAL SYSTEM BUT
MAIN ACTION SHOULD ARRIVE DURING FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASE IN
POPS...HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT

WINDS WILL CLOCK TO WEST AGAIN AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE ANTICIPATE A LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS...SOME WITH
LIGHTNING...TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXACT
TIMING IS TRICKY WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS. LATEST NUMERICAL
STATISTICS COMBINED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IN PLACE DO SUGGEST
THAT ELEMENTS OF A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH HI HUMIDITY.
AGAIN...MODELS USUALLY HAVE TROUBLE WITH THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS...BUT GIVEN SUDDEN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...MODEL
FORECAST PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AN 2.00 INCHES AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING LARGE SCALE TROUGH...500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE OLDER OUTPUT
FOR THE ECMWF MOS.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT DUE TO SOME FAST MOVING
SHOWERS. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KNOTS AND DEFINETLY SOME LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS A
SHORT PERIOD OR TWO OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SURFACE TO 700 MB
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS BY MIDNIGHT. SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING FRIDAY EVENING. STRONG COOL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY WILL SLIDE TO THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY...THENCE MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HI TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND UPPER 70S ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP OUT RAIN
CHANCES STILL BECAUSE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AIR WILL BE TOO DRY.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY
MONDAY...WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS
AND GUSTY...TURNING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  84  70  74 / 30 60 50 -
MARATHON  74  88  69  75 / 30 60 50 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 261913
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
315 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST IR
IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS
THE AXIS OF A DEEP LATE WINTER SEASON POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ONTARIO SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST TEXAS. DOWNSTREAM
OF THAT FEATURE...SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS REMAIN BENEATH
THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT MIDDLE LEVEL...500 MB HEIGHTS ARE
SLOWLY FALLING AT THE KEYS RELATIVE POSITION TO THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE KEYS...200 MB UPPER DIVERGENCE IS
LOCATED WITH INCREASED MID LEVEL PVA(POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION)
(AT 500 MB) JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. AS SUCH
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DETAILS THE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF A
LARGE OUTFLOW WITH LIGHTNING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND
LAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM...DETECT A 1028
MB ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH PLAINS. A SURFACE
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO JUST OFF THE TEXAS
COAST...WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND ANOTHER CLUSTER
FROM OFF OF LOUISIANA TO JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT

.CURRENTLY...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH/AND ASSOCIATED MCS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
IS RESULTING IN STRONGER WINDS THAN ANTICIPATED...BLOWING 15 KNOTS
AND GUSTY ACROSS ALL OF THE WATERS...EXCEPT 19 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO KEY
LIGHT...SIGHTED HIGHER ABOVE THE WATER...WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH AND
GUSTY ACROSS THE KEYS. RADAR IS FREE FROM ANY SHOWERS ATTM.

.SHORT TERM...A LATE SEASON BREECH OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
THE AIR BEHIND THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH
DRIER YET SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...WHICH WILL LAST FROM SATURDAY THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WE EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL COME DOWN THIS
EVENING A BIT...WITH GENTLE SOUTH BREEZES EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT GIVEN
ENOUGH LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF A PREFROTNAL SYSTEM BUT
MAIN ACTION SHOULD ARRIVE DURING FRIDAY. GIVEN INCREASE IN
POPS...HAVE RAISED POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT

WINDS WILL CLOCK TO WEST AGAIN AND INCREASE DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE ANTICIPATE A LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS...SOME WITH
LIGHTNING...TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXACT
TIMING IS TRICKY WITH THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS. LATEST NUMERICAL
STATISTICS COMBINED WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IN PLACE DO SUGGEST
THAT ELEMENTS OF A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH HI HUMIDITY.
AGAIN...MODELS USUALLY HAVE TROUBLE WITH THESE TYPES OF
SYSTEMS...BUT GIVEN SUDDEN INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE...MODEL
FORECAST PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AN 2.00 INCHES AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY WITH THE APPROACHING LARGE SCALE TROUGH...500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LOW LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS IS CLOSER TO THE OLDER OUTPUT
FOR THE ECMWF MOS.

IN TERMS OF EXPECTED CONDITIONS. DO EXPECT DUE TO SOME FAST MOVING
SHOWERS. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KNOTS AND DEFINETLY SOME LIGHTNING...AS WELL AS A
SHORT PERIOD OR TWO OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
DURING FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SURFACE TO 700 MB
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE KEYS BY MIDNIGHT. SO HAVE GONE
WITH HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING FRIDAY EVENING. STRONG COOL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY WILL SLIDE TO THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY...THENCE MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
DURING MONDAY...WITH A WEAKER RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HI TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND UPPER 70S ON MONDAY WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH NO
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. WILL KEEP OUT RAIN
CHANCES STILL BECAUSE INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AIR WILL BE TOO DRY.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THE
FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS ALL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS ALL
WATERS...POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL STILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH POSSIBLY
MONDAY...WITH CAUTION CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE FOR RECREATIONAL BOATING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS
AND GUSTY...TURNING SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  84  70  74 / 30 60 50 -
MARATHON  74  88  69  75 / 30 60 50 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KTBW 261900
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS MOIST AIR
IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MID-UPPER
TROUGH IN MIDDLE OF U.S. DEEPENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE WEATHER INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EXIST WITH THE FIRST FROM FRANKIN
COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ST JOE BAY SOUTH INTO THE
GULF. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS
MOIST AIR IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON.THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE STATE FRIDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
NW FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY NW-N WINDS TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE SPRING BREAK WEEKEND.
SATURDAY SKIES TO CLEAR WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION MOVING NEWARD KEEPING TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW END DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/RD



000
FXUS62 KTBW 261900
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS MOIST AIR
IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MID-UPPER
TROUGH IN MIDDLE OF U.S. DEEPENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE WEATHER INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EXIST WITH THE FIRST FROM FRANKIN
COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ST JOE BAY SOUTH INTO THE
GULF. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS
MOIST AIR IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON.THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE STATE FRIDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
NW FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY NW-N WINDS TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE SPRING BREAK WEEKEND.
SATURDAY SKIES TO CLEAR WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION MOVING NEWARD KEEPING TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW END DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/RD



000
FXUS62 KTBW 261900
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS MOIST AIR
IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MID-UPPER
TROUGH IN MIDDLE OF U.S. DEEPENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE WEATHER INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EXIST WITH THE FIRST FROM FRANKIN
COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ST JOE BAY SOUTH INTO THE
GULF. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS
MOIST AIR IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON.THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE STATE FRIDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
NW FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY NW-N WINDS TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE SPRING BREAK WEEKEND.
SATURDAY SKIES TO CLEAR WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION MOVING NEWARD KEEPING TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW END DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/RD



000
FXUS62 KTBW 261900
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
300 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS MOIST AIR
IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MID-UPPER
TROUGH IN MIDDLE OF U.S. DEEPENING AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD. THIS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT AND LEADING EDGE WEATHER INTO THE NORTHERN
ZONES TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES FRIDAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY. TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION EXIST WITH THE FIRST FROM FRANKIN
COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF AND THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM ST JOE BAY SOUTH INTO THE
GULF. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PENINSULA AS
MOIST AIR IS HEATED THIS AFTERNOON.THE MODELS ARE ALSO IN
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS IN THE AREA THAT WILL HELP TO
INTENSIFY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES SOUTH DOWN THE STATE FRIDAY. A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
STRONG COLD FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES TO QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
NW FLOW ALOFT. BREEZY NW-N WINDS TO CREATE HAZARDOUS SEAS AND
BREAKING WAVES ALONG AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK DURING THE SPRING BREAK WEEKEND.
SATURDAY SKIES TO CLEAR WITH TEMPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FAIR AND COOL WEATHER CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION MOVING NEWARD KEEPING TEMPERATURES 10+ DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS.

WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK WITH WEAK ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE REGION BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND RETURN FLOW THROUGH
MID WEEK.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE NORTHERN TRACK WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THE NEXT
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOUTHERLY LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW TO
INCREASE MOISTURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOW END DIURNAL SEA
BREEZE SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR IS EXPECTED AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE. SHRA WILL MOVE FROM
COASTAL PASCO COUNTY TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE
SIGNFICANT TSRA WILL BE IMPACTING NORTHERN AIRPORTS FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS THEY INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SWEEPS THE COASTAL WATERS
FRI WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AT CAUTION TO ADVISORY SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH WINDS VEERING AND
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ROBUST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGH DISPERSION TODAY AND AGAIN ON
FRI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT SAT AND
PERHAPS SUN. HOWEVER BOTH WINDS AND ERC VALUES ARE EXPECT TO BE
LOW THOSE DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  77  55  69 /  70  80   0   0
FMY  72  81  58  75 /  60  90  10   0
GIF  69  79  52  70 /  50  80   0   0
SRQ  71  77  57  69 /  60  80   0   0
BKV  68  77  47  68 /  80  90  10   0
SPG  72  76  59  68 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

CP/RD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ATTM, AND
EXPECT THEIR COVERAGE TO INCREASE WHILE MOVING NNE. BEST CHC FOR
TS REMAINS AT PBI, AND THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS THIS PM, SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES SHRAS TODAY. ACTIVITY WANES THIS
EVENING. SREF/RAP13/LAMP ALL SUGGEST NO VIS REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AT
ANY TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL AT ANY SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRONE TO MVFR VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT
DESPITE WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS, LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
APF/PBI NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  58  73 /  40  60  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  62  75 /  30  50  30  10
MIAMI            75  88  64  77 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           72  83  60  72 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ATTM, AND
EXPECT THEIR COVERAGE TO INCREASE WHILE MOVING NNE. BEST CHC FOR
TS REMAINS AT PBI, AND THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS THIS PM, SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES SHRAS TODAY. ACTIVITY WANES THIS
EVENING. SREF/RAP13/LAMP ALL SUGGEST NO VIS REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AT
ANY TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL AT ANY SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRONE TO MVFR VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT
DESPITE WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS, LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
APF/PBI NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  58  73 /  40  60  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  62  75 /  30  50  30  10
MIAMI            75  88  64  77 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           72  83  60  72 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ATTM, AND
EXPECT THEIR COVERAGE TO INCREASE WHILE MOVING NNE. BEST CHC FOR
TS REMAINS AT PBI, AND THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS THIS PM, SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES SHRAS TODAY. ACTIVITY WANES THIS
EVENING. SREF/RAP13/LAMP ALL SUGGEST NO VIS REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AT
ANY TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL AT ANY SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRONE TO MVFR VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT
DESPITE WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS, LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
APF/PBI NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  58  73 /  40  60  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  62  75 /  30  50  30  10
MIAMI            75  88  64  77 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           72  83  60  72 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ATTM, AND
EXPECT THEIR COVERAGE TO INCREASE WHILE MOVING NNE. BEST CHC FOR
TS REMAINS AT PBI, AND THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS THIS PM, SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES SHRAS TODAY. ACTIVITY WANES THIS
EVENING. SREF/RAP13/LAMP ALL SUGGEST NO VIS REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AT
ANY TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL AT ANY SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRONE TO MVFR VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT
DESPITE WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS, LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
APF/PBI NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  58  73 /  40  60  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  62  75 /  30  50  30  10
MIAMI            75  88  64  77 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           72  83  60  72 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ATTM, AND
EXPECT THEIR COVERAGE TO INCREASE WHILE MOVING NNE. BEST CHC FOR
TS REMAINS AT PBI, AND THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS THIS PM, SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES SHRAS TODAY. ACTIVITY WANES THIS
EVENING. SREF/RAP13/LAMP ALL SUGGEST NO VIS REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AT
ANY TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL AT ANY SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRONE TO MVFR VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT
DESPITE WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS, LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
APF/PBI NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  58  73 /  40  60  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  62  75 /  30  50  30  10
MIAMI            75  88  64  77 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           72  83  60  72 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ATTM, AND
EXPECT THEIR COVERAGE TO INCREASE WHILE MOVING NNE. BEST CHC FOR
TS REMAINS AT PBI, AND THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS THIS PM, SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES SHRAS TODAY. ACTIVITY WANES THIS
EVENING. SREF/RAP13/LAMP ALL SUGGEST NO VIS REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AT
ANY TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL AT ANY SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRONE TO MVFR VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT
DESPITE WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS, LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
APF/PBI NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  58  73 /  40  60  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  62  75 /  30  50  30  10
MIAMI            75  88  64  77 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           72  83  60  72 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ATTM, AND
EXPECT THEIR COVERAGE TO INCREASE WHILE MOVING NNE. BEST CHC FOR
TS REMAINS AT PBI, AND THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS THIS PM, SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES SHRAS TODAY. ACTIVITY WANES THIS
EVENING. SREF/RAP13/LAMP ALL SUGGEST NO VIS REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AT
ANY TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL AT ANY SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRONE TO MVFR VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT
DESPITE WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS, LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
APF/PBI NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  58  73 /  40  60  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  62  75 /  30  50  30  10
MIAMI            75  88  64  77 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           72  83  60  72 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ATTM, AND
EXPECT THEIR COVERAGE TO INCREASE WHILE MOVING NNE. BEST CHC FOR
TS REMAINS AT PBI, AND THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS THIS PM, SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES SHRAS TODAY. ACTIVITY WANES THIS
EVENING. SREF/RAP13/LAMP ALL SUGGEST NO VIS REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AT
ANY TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL AT ANY SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRONE TO MVFR VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT
DESPITE WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS, LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
APF/PBI NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  58  73 /  40  60  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  62  75 /  30  50  30  10
MIAMI            75  88  64  77 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           72  83  60  72 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM




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