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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280326
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS DRIVING FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. GOOD VEERING THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS IN AN ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SWATHS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES...WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY NEAR THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL CLOCK EAST
NORTHEAST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA. A MOIST LOW LEVEL ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN...AND SOME RELATIVELY STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE VEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN A WARMER AIRMASS...AND
MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY REACHED OR ARE NEAR THEIR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS ALL KEYS WATERS
TONIGHT...AND A CAUTION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIVE EASTWARD. HAVE TWEAKED FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND RECOMBINED
ZONE GROUPINGS DUE TO THE MORE HOMOGENEOUS WIND DISTRIBUTION ACROSS
KEYS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT KEY WEST...BUT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MARATHON
ISLAND TERMINAL ALSO. LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN PROVIDING FLUCTUATING SCATTERED TO OVERCAST WITH BASES
BETWEEN 600 AND 1100 FEET. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DECENT VEERING AT
LEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BETWEEN 09 AND 16Z.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1989...THE
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 46 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 27 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......99

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 280326
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS DRIVING FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. GOOD VEERING THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS IN AN ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SWATHS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES...WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY NEAR THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL CLOCK EAST
NORTHEAST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA. A MOIST LOW LEVEL ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN...AND SOME RELATIVELY STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE VEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN A WARMER AIRMASS...AND
MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY REACHED OR ARE NEAR THEIR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS ALL KEYS WATERS
TONIGHT...AND A CAUTION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIVE EASTWARD. HAVE TWEAKED FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND RECOMBINED
ZONE GROUPINGS DUE TO THE MORE HOMOGENEOUS WIND DISTRIBUTION ACROSS
KEYS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT KEY WEST...BUT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MARATHON
ISLAND TERMINAL ALSO. LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN PROVIDING FLUCTUATING SCATTERED TO OVERCAST WITH BASES
BETWEEN 600 AND 1100 FEET. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DECENT VEERING AT
LEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BETWEEN 09 AND 16Z.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1989...THE
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 46 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 27 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......99

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 280326
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS DRIVING FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. GOOD VEERING THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS IN AN ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SWATHS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES...WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY NEAR THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL CLOCK EAST
NORTHEAST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA. A MOIST LOW LEVEL ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN...AND SOME RELATIVELY STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE VEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN A WARMER AIRMASS...AND
MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY REACHED OR ARE NEAR THEIR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS ALL KEYS WATERS
TONIGHT...AND A CAUTION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIVE EASTWARD. HAVE TWEAKED FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND RECOMBINED
ZONE GROUPINGS DUE TO THE MORE HOMOGENEOUS WIND DISTRIBUTION ACROSS
KEYS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT KEY WEST...BUT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MARATHON
ISLAND TERMINAL ALSO. LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN PROVIDING FLUCTUATING SCATTERED TO OVERCAST WITH BASES
BETWEEN 600 AND 1100 FEET. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DECENT VEERING AT
LEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BETWEEN 09 AND 16Z.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1989...THE
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 46 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 27 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......99

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 280326
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS DRIVING FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. GOOD VEERING THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS IN AN ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SWATHS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES...WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY NEAR THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL CLOCK EAST
NORTHEAST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA. A MOIST LOW LEVEL ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN...AND SOME RELATIVELY STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE VEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN A WARMER AIRMASS...AND
MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY REACHED OR ARE NEAR THEIR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS ALL KEYS WATERS
TONIGHT...AND A CAUTION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIVE EASTWARD. HAVE TWEAKED FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND RECOMBINED
ZONE GROUPINGS DUE TO THE MORE HOMOGENEOUS WIND DISTRIBUTION ACROSS
KEYS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT KEY WEST...BUT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MARATHON
ISLAND TERMINAL ALSO. LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN PROVIDING FLUCTUATING SCATTERED TO OVERCAST WITH BASES
BETWEEN 600 AND 1100 FEET. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DECENT VEERING AT
LEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BETWEEN 09 AND 16Z.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1989...THE
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 46 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 27 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......99

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 280326
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS DRIVING FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. GOOD VEERING THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS IN AN ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SWATHS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES...WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY NEAR THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL CLOCK EAST
NORTHEAST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA. A MOIST LOW LEVEL ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN...AND SOME RELATIVELY STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE VEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN A WARMER AIRMASS...AND
MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY REACHED OR ARE NEAR THEIR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS ALL KEYS WATERS
TONIGHT...AND A CAUTION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIVE EASTWARD. HAVE TWEAKED FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND RECOMBINED
ZONE GROUPINGS DUE TO THE MORE HOMOGENEOUS WIND DISTRIBUTION ACROSS
KEYS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT KEY WEST...BUT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MARATHON
ISLAND TERMINAL ALSO. LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN PROVIDING FLUCTUATING SCATTERED TO OVERCAST WITH BASES
BETWEEN 600 AND 1100 FEET. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DECENT VEERING AT
LEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BETWEEN 09 AND 16Z.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1989...THE
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 46 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 27 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......99

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 280326
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS DRIVING FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES
ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. GOOD VEERING THROUGH THE
LOWER LEVELS IN AN ALREADY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SWATHS OF LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES...WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY NEAR THE OLD FRONT
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL CLOCK EAST
NORTHEAST AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
PENNSYLVANIA. A MOIST LOW LEVEL ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN...AND SOME RELATIVELY STRONGER ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. THE VEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN A WARMER AIRMASS...AND
MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY ALREADY REACHED OR ARE NEAR THEIR
OVERNIGHT LOWS. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE IS
PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS ALL KEYS WATERS
TONIGHT...AND A CAUTION IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION EAST NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH CONTINUES
TO DRIVE EASTWARD. HAVE TWEAKED FIRST PERIOD WINDS AND RECOMBINED
ZONE GROUPINGS DUE TO THE MORE HOMOGENEOUS WIND DISTRIBUTION ACROSS
KEYS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH IFR WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT KEY WEST...BUT ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MARATHON
ISLAND TERMINAL ALSO. LOW LEVEL STRATUS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN PROVIDING FLUCTUATING SCATTERED TO OVERCAST WITH BASES
BETWEEN 600 AND 1100 FEET. AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DECENT VEERING AT
LEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY PRODUCE SPRINKLES TO PERIODS OF LIGHT
RAIN TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN BETWEEN 09 AND 16Z.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1989...THE
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 46 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 27 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......99

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 280244
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE NE. THIS IS ALL CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL IN THE
ZONES BUT HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST IS
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR FOG/VISIBILITY POSSIBLE GENERALLY 09-14Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$







000
FXUS62 KTBW 280244
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE NE. THIS IS ALL CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL IN THE
ZONES BUT HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST IS
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR FOG/VISIBILITY POSSIBLE GENERALLY 09-14Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KTBW 280244
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE NE. THIS IS ALL CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL IN THE
ZONES BUT HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST IS
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR FOG/VISIBILITY POSSIBLE GENERALLY 09-14Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$








000
FXUS62 KTBW 280244
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
944 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE NE. THIS IS ALL CURRENTLY HANDLED WELL IN THE
ZONES BUT HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. UPDATED FORECAST IS
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. MVFR
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SOME IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND MVFR FOG/VISIBILITY POSSIBLE GENERALLY 09-14Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
     SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTAE 280221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With slight cold air advection from the northeast competing with the
warming effects of cloud cover towards the south, temperatures
tonight will dip into the 40`s and upper 30`s. The coldest
temperatures will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
where clouds are minimal. Clouds will build in from the southwest as
the subtropical jet stays above our area bringing an increase in
upper level moisture, but no rain for most areas. The exception will
be across the northeast Gulf and the southeast Big Bend where more
moisture will bring about light rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the night.
The main exception will be at TLH and VLD where MVFR ceilings will
begin to spread in from the southeast late tonight. Tomorrow, the
MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread all terminals and linger
through much of the day. A chance for periods of light rain will
exist at TLH, VLD, and ABY through the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [413 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  58  50  68  58 /  10  20  20  10  20
Panama City   45  59  51  63  58 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      45  54  48  67  59 /  10  20  30  20  20
Cross City    47  61  54  73  60 /  40  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  49  60  55  65  61 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARROYO/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 280221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With slight cold air advection from the northeast competing with the
warming effects of cloud cover towards the south, temperatures
tonight will dip into the 40`s and upper 30`s. The coldest
temperatures will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
where clouds are minimal. Clouds will build in from the southwest as
the subtropical jet stays above our area bringing an increase in
upper level moisture, but no rain for most areas. The exception will
be across the northeast Gulf and the southeast Big Bend where more
moisture will bring about light rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the night.
The main exception will be at TLH and VLD where MVFR ceilings will
begin to spread in from the southeast late tonight. Tomorrow, the
MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread all terminals and linger
through much of the day. A chance for periods of light rain will
exist at TLH, VLD, and ABY through the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [413 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  58  50  68  58 /  10  20  20  10  20
Panama City   45  59  51  63  58 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      45  54  48  67  59 /  10  20  30  20  20
Cross City    47  61  54  73  60 /  40  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  49  60  55  65  61 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARROYO/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 280221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With slight cold air advection from the northeast competing with the
warming effects of cloud cover towards the south, temperatures
tonight will dip into the 40`s and upper 30`s. The coldest
temperatures will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
where clouds are minimal. Clouds will build in from the southwest as
the subtropical jet stays above our area bringing an increase in
upper level moisture, but no rain for most areas. The exception will
be across the northeast Gulf and the southeast Big Bend where more
moisture will bring about light rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the night.
The main exception will be at TLH and VLD where MVFR ceilings will
begin to spread in from the southeast late tonight. Tomorrow, the
MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread all terminals and linger
through much of the day. A chance for periods of light rain will
exist at TLH, VLD, and ABY through the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [413 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  58  50  68  58 /  10  20  20  10  20
Panama City   45  59  51  63  58 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      45  54  48  67  59 /  10  20  30  20  20
Cross City    47  61  54  73  60 /  40  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  49  60  55  65  61 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARROYO/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 280221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With slight cold air advection from the northeast competing with the
warming effects of cloud cover towards the south, temperatures
tonight will dip into the 40`s and upper 30`s. The coldest
temperatures will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
where clouds are minimal. Clouds will build in from the southwest as
the subtropical jet stays above our area bringing an increase in
upper level moisture, but no rain for most areas. The exception will
be across the northeast Gulf and the southeast Big Bend where more
moisture will bring about light rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the night.
The main exception will be at TLH and VLD where MVFR ceilings will
begin to spread in from the southeast late tonight. Tomorrow, the
MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread all terminals and linger
through much of the day. A chance for periods of light rain will
exist at TLH, VLD, and ABY through the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [413 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  58  50  68  58 /  10  20  20  10  20
Panama City   45  59  51  63  58 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      45  54  48  67  59 /  10  20  30  20  20
Cross City    47  61  54  73  60 /  40  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  49  60  55  65  61 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARROYO/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 280221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With slight cold air advection from the northeast competing with the
warming effects of cloud cover towards the south, temperatures
tonight will dip into the 40`s and upper 30`s. The coldest
temperatures will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
where clouds are minimal. Clouds will build in from the southwest as
the subtropical jet stays above our area bringing an increase in
upper level moisture, but no rain for most areas. The exception will
be across the northeast Gulf and the southeast Big Bend where more
moisture will bring about light rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the night.
The main exception will be at TLH and VLD where MVFR ceilings will
begin to spread in from the southeast late tonight. Tomorrow, the
MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread all terminals and linger
through much of the day. A chance for periods of light rain will
exist at TLH, VLD, and ABY through the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [413 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  58  50  68  58 /  10  20  20  10  20
Panama City   45  59  51  63  58 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      45  54  48  67  59 /  10  20  30  20  20
Cross City    47  61  54  73  60 /  40  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  49  60  55  65  61 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARROYO/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 280221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

With slight cold air advection from the northeast competing with the
warming effects of cloud cover towards the south, temperatures
tonight will dip into the 40`s and upper 30`s. The coldest
temperatures will be across southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia
where clouds are minimal. Clouds will build in from the southwest as
the subtropical jet stays above our area bringing an increase in
upper level moisture, but no rain for most areas. The exception will
be across the northeast Gulf and the southeast Big Bend where more
moisture will bring about light rain.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals through the night.
The main exception will be at TLH and VLD where MVFR ceilings will
begin to spread in from the southeast late tonight. Tomorrow, the
MVFR ceilings are expected to overspread all terminals and linger
through much of the day. A chance for periods of light rain will
exist at TLH, VLD, and ABY through the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion [413 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.


.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   45  58  50  68  58 /  10  20  20  10  20
Panama City   45  59  51  63  58 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      45  54  48  67  59 /  10  20  30  20  20
Cross City    47  61  54  73  60 /  40  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  49  60  55  65  61 /  20  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...ARROYO/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 280131 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
831 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT
KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG
WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY
AREAS WHERE THE SHOWERS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DUE TO
THIS AREA BEING CLOSER THE THE MID LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PALM BEACH
COUNTY WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CAT.

THE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO
BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST...EXCEPT FOR THE
PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...THE SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE PALM BEACH
WATERS FOR TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
THE CEILINGS AT MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING HAVE BEEN IN THE IFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR KMIA, KTMB,
AND KAPF WHICH WHERE IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS AT
KMIA...KTMB...AND KAPF SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
02Z TONIGHT WITH REST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES IN THE IFR
CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD START TO INCREASE INTO THE MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z ON SATURDAY AND BY 18Z SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 360 DEGREES AT MOST OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN NORTHEAST AND EAST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW
SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF KAPF AND KPBI TONIGHT BEFORE
AFFECTING ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES ON SATURDAY.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO 80
DEGREES AT TAMIAMI. THICK CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING...AND A WEAK SEA
BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. ELSEWHERE...A
DREARY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LAKE REGION
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS UPGLIDE
CONTINUES AND AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE LAKE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCING RAINFALL
CHANCES. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LESSER CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE REGION...SO IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S
AT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THE REGION WILL LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL
TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LONG PERIOD 2-3 FOOT
SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FEET
TONIGHT...7 FEET ON SATURDAY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND UP TO
8 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
OVER THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  80  73  82 /  40  60  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  80  73  81 /  20  40  20  10
MIAMI            70  83  73  83 /  20  30  10  10
NAPLES           60  81  67  85 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280131 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
831 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT
KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG
WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY
AREAS WHERE THE SHOWERS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DUE TO
THIS AREA BEING CLOSER THE THE MID LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PALM BEACH
COUNTY WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CAT.

THE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO
BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST...EXCEPT FOR THE
PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...THE SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE PALM BEACH
WATERS FOR TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
THE CEILINGS AT MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING HAVE BEEN IN THE IFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR KMIA, KTMB,
AND KAPF WHICH WHERE IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS AT
KMIA...KTMB...AND KAPF SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
02Z TONIGHT WITH REST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES IN THE IFR
CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD START TO INCREASE INTO THE MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z ON SATURDAY AND BY 18Z SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 360 DEGREES AT MOST OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN NORTHEAST AND EAST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW
SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF KAPF AND KPBI TONIGHT BEFORE
AFFECTING ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES ON SATURDAY.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO 80
DEGREES AT TAMIAMI. THICK CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING...AND A WEAK SEA
BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. ELSEWHERE...A
DREARY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LAKE REGION
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS UPGLIDE
CONTINUES AND AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE LAKE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCING RAINFALL
CHANCES. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LESSER CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE REGION...SO IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S
AT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THE REGION WILL LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL
TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LONG PERIOD 2-3 FOOT
SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FEET
TONIGHT...7 FEET ON SATURDAY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND UP TO
8 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
OVER THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  80  73  82 /  40  60  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  80  73  81 /  20  40  20  10
MIAMI            70  83  73  83 /  20  30  10  10
NAPLES           60  81  67  85 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG



000
FXUS62 KMFL 280131 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
831 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT
KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG
WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY
AREAS WHERE THE SHOWERS COULD BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DUE TO
THIS AREA BEING CLOSER THE THE MID LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE WORKING
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR PALM BEACH
COUNTY WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE CHANCE CAT.

THE WIND SPEEDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO
BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST...EXCEPT FOR THE
PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
THEREFORE...THE SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE PALM BEACH
WATERS FOR TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
THE CEILINGS AT MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING HAVE BEEN IN THE IFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR KMIA, KTMB,
AND KAPF WHICH WHERE IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS AT
KMIA...KTMB...AND KAPF SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
02Z TONIGHT WITH REST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES IN THE IFR
CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD START TO INCREASE INTO THE MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z ON SATURDAY AND BY 18Z SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 360 DEGREES AT MOST OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN NORTHEAST AND EAST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW
SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF KAPF AND KPBI TONIGHT BEFORE
AFFECTING ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES ON SATURDAY.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO 80
DEGREES AT TAMIAMI. THICK CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING...AND A WEAK SEA
BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. ELSEWHERE...A
DREARY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LAKE REGION
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS UPGLIDE
CONTINUES AND AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE LAKE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCING RAINFALL
CHANCES. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LESSER CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE REGION...SO IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S
AT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THE REGION WILL LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL
TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LONG PERIOD 2-3 FOOT
SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FEET
TONIGHT...7 FEET ON SATURDAY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND UP TO
8 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
OVER THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  80  73  82 /  40  60  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  80  73  81 /  20  40  20  10
MIAMI            70  83  73  83 /  20  30  10  10
NAPLES           60  81  67  85 /  30  50  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 280117
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. A COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER 50S COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS
EVENING. ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID EVENING WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. WITH GRADIENT INCREASING
NEAR THE COAST...COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE IN CONCERT WITH
STRONGER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
LENDING MVFR CIGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALSO BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z...A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS NE FL / SE GA
PROVIDING AN OVER RUNNING TYPE OF EVENT DEVELOPING. AS A RESULT...
MORE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LOWERING TO THE 1000-1500 FT LEVEL. AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND LATEST THINKING IS MAINLY AROUND THE GNV
TERMINAL...AS THE COASTAL TAF SITES MAY HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BELOW 1000-1500 FT AND SOME DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN ON A NNE WIND. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW EXPECTED
SAT. MENTIONED LLWS IN TAFS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY...BUT 1500-2000 FT WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AFTER
09Z THROUGH AT LEAST TIL 14Z SAT. INTERMITTENT IFR/MVF CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  53  45  64 /  10  30  20  30
SSI  45  50  48  61 /  20  40  40  30
JAX  46  54  51  69 /  30  60  60  30
SGJ  52  60  56  68 /  50  70  70  30
GNV  48  60  51  74 /  40  60  60  30
OCF  50  66  55  77 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO



000
FXUS62 KJAX 280117
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. A COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER 50S COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS
EVENING. ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID EVENING WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. WITH GRADIENT INCREASING
NEAR THE COAST...COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE IN CONCERT WITH
STRONGER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
LENDING MVFR CIGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALSO BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z...A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS NE FL / SE GA
PROVIDING AN OVER RUNNING TYPE OF EVENT DEVELOPING. AS A RESULT...
MORE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LOWERING TO THE 1000-1500 FT LEVEL. AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND LATEST THINKING IS MAINLY AROUND THE GNV
TERMINAL...AS THE COASTAL TAF SITES MAY HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BELOW 1000-1500 FT AND SOME DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN ON A NNE WIND. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW EXPECTED
SAT. MENTIONED LLWS IN TAFS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY...BUT 1500-2000 FT WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AFTER
09Z THROUGH AT LEAST TIL 14Z SAT. INTERMITTENT IFR/MVF CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  53  45  64 /  10  30  20  30
SSI  45  50  48  61 /  20  40  40  30
JAX  46  54  51  69 /  30  60  60  30
SGJ  52  60  56  68 /  50  70  70  30
GNV  48  60  51  74 /  40  60  60  30
OCF  50  66  55  77 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO



000
FXUS62 KJAX 280117
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. A COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER 50S COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS
EVENING. ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID EVENING WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. WITH GRADIENT INCREASING
NEAR THE COAST...COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE IN CONCERT WITH
STRONGER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
LENDING MVFR CIGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALSO BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z...A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS NE FL / SE GA
PROVIDING AN OVER RUNNING TYPE OF EVENT DEVELOPING. AS A RESULT...
MORE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LOWERING TO THE 1000-1500 FT LEVEL. AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND LATEST THINKING IS MAINLY AROUND THE GNV
TERMINAL...AS THE COASTAL TAF SITES MAY HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BELOW 1000-1500 FT AND SOME DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN ON A NNE WIND. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW EXPECTED
SAT. MENTIONED LLWS IN TAFS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY...BUT 1500-2000 FT WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AFTER
09Z THROUGH AT LEAST TIL 14Z SAT. INTERMITTENT IFR/MVF CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  53  45  64 /  10  30  20  30
SSI  45  50  48  61 /  20  40  40  30
JAX  46  54  51  69 /  30  60  60  30
SGJ  52  60  56  68 /  50  70  70  30
GNV  48  60  51  74 /  40  60  60  30
OCF  50  66  55  77 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO



000
FXUS62 KJAX 280117
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. A COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER 50S COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS
EVENING. ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID EVENING WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. WITH GRADIENT INCREASING
NEAR THE COAST...COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE IN CONCERT WITH
STRONGER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
LENDING MVFR CIGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALSO BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z...A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS NE FL / SE GA
PROVIDING AN OVER RUNNING TYPE OF EVENT DEVELOPING. AS A RESULT...
MORE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LOWERING TO THE 1000-1500 FT LEVEL. AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND LATEST THINKING IS MAINLY AROUND THE GNV
TERMINAL...AS THE COASTAL TAF SITES MAY HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BELOW 1000-1500 FT AND SOME DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN ON A NNE WIND. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW EXPECTED
SAT. MENTIONED LLWS IN TAFS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY...BUT 1500-2000 FT WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AFTER
09Z THROUGH AT LEAST TIL 14Z SAT. INTERMITTENT IFR/MVF CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  53  45  64 /  10  30  20  30
SSI  45  50  48  61 /  20  40  40  30
JAX  46  54  51  69 /  30  60  60  30
SGJ  52  60  56  68 /  50  70  70  30
GNV  48  60  51  74 /  40  60  60  30
OCF  50  66  55  77 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO



000
FXUS62 KJAX 280117
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. A COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER 50S COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS
EVENING. ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID EVENING WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. WITH GRADIENT INCREASING
NEAR THE COAST...COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE IN CONCERT WITH
STRONGER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
LENDING MVFR CIGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALSO BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z...A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS NE FL / SE GA
PROVIDING AN OVER RUNNING TYPE OF EVENT DEVELOPING. AS A RESULT...
MORE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LOWERING TO THE 1000-1500 FT LEVEL. AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND LATEST THINKING IS MAINLY AROUND THE GNV
TERMINAL...AS THE COASTAL TAF SITES MAY HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BELOW 1000-1500 FT AND SOME DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN ON A NNE WIND. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW EXPECTED
SAT. MENTIONED LLWS IN TAFS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY...BUT 1500-2000 FT WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AFTER
09Z THROUGH AT LEAST TIL 14Z SAT. INTERMITTENT IFR/MVF CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  53  45  64 /  10  30  20  30
SSI  45  50  48  61 /  20  40  40  30
JAX  46  54  51  69 /  30  60  60  30
SGJ  52  60  56  68 /  50  70  70  30
GNV  48  60  51  74 /  40  60  60  30
OCF  50  66  55  77 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO



000
FXUS62 KJAX 280117
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. A COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER 50S COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS
EVENING. ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID EVENING WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. WITH GRADIENT INCREASING
NEAR THE COAST...COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE IN CONCERT WITH
STRONGER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
LENDING MVFR CIGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALSO BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z...A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS NE FL / SE GA
PROVIDING AN OVER RUNNING TYPE OF EVENT DEVELOPING. AS A RESULT...
MORE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LOWERING TO THE 1000-1500 FT LEVEL. AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND LATEST THINKING IS MAINLY AROUND THE GNV
TERMINAL...AS THE COASTAL TAF SITES MAY HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BELOW 1000-1500 FT AND SOME DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN ON A NNE WIND. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW EXPECTED
SAT. MENTIONED LLWS IN TAFS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY...BUT 1500-2000 FT WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AFTER
09Z THROUGH AT LEAST TIL 14Z SAT. INTERMITTENT IFR/MVF CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  53  45  64 /  10  30  20  30
SSI  45  50  48  61 /  20  40  40  30
JAX  46  54  51  69 /  30  60  60  30
SGJ  52  60  56  68 /  50  70  70  30
GNV  48  60  51  74 /  40  60  60  30
OCF  50  66  55  77 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO



000
FXUS62 KJAX 280117
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. A COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER 50S COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS
EVENING. ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID EVENING WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. WITH GRADIENT INCREASING
NEAR THE COAST...COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE IN CONCERT WITH
STRONGER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
LENDING MVFR CIGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALSO BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z...A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS NE FL / SE GA
PROVIDING AN OVER RUNNING TYPE OF EVENT DEVELOPING. AS A RESULT...
MORE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LOWERING TO THE 1000-1500 FT LEVEL. AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND LATEST THINKING IS MAINLY AROUND THE GNV
TERMINAL...AS THE COASTAL TAF SITES MAY HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BELOW 1000-1500 FT AND SOME DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN ON A NNE WIND. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW EXPECTED
SAT. MENTIONED LLWS IN TAFS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY...BUT 1500-2000 FT WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AFTER
09Z THROUGH AT LEAST TIL 14Z SAT. INTERMITTENT IFR/MVF CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  53  45  64 /  10  30  20  30
SSI  45  50  48  61 /  20  40  40  30
JAX  46  54  51  69 /  30  60  60  30
SGJ  52  60  56  68 /  50  70  70  30
GNV  48  60  51  74 /  40  60  60  30
OCF  50  66  55  77 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO



000
FXUS62 KJAX 280117
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
817 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF ONSHORE FLOW. A COASTAL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS FLOW TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S INLAND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO THE LOWER 50S COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4 THIS
EVENING. ACROSS NE FL AND SE GA SCT CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MID EVENING WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. WITH GRADIENT INCREASING
NEAR THE COAST...COASTAL CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE IN CONCERT WITH
STRONGER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE REGION
LENDING MVFR CIGS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALSO BETWEEN 06Z AND
18Z...A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK ACROSS NE FL / SE GA
PROVIDING AN OVER RUNNING TYPE OF EVENT DEVELOPING. AS A RESULT...
MORE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LOWERING TO THE 1000-1500 FT LEVEL. AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND LATEST THINKING IS MAINLY AROUND THE GNV
TERMINAL...AS THE COASTAL TAF SITES MAY HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BELOW 1000-1500 FT AND SOME DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN ON A NNE WIND. WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW EXPECTED
SAT. MENTIONED LLWS IN TAFS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY...BUT 1500-2000 FT WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AFTER
09Z THROUGH AT LEAST TIL 14Z SAT. INTERMITTENT IFR/MVF CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED DURING SATURDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  53  45  64 /  10  30  20  30
SSI  45  50  48  61 /  20  40  40  30
JAX  46  54  51  69 /  30  60  60  30
SGJ  52  60  56  68 /  50  70  70  30
GNV  48  60  51  74 /  40  60  60  30
OCF  50  66  55  77 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 280102
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING WEST AND FLATTENING A LITTLE IN THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST LARGE SCALE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS ARE SHOWING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS OVER WATER AND AT THE
COAST TO BECOME NORTHEAST WHILE REMAINING MORE NORTHERLY INLAND.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS
SHOW THE SAME...MOIST AND WARMER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE MOVING OVERTOP A SHALLOW COOLER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW. THIS
SET UP INDICATES CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND WORKING THEIR WAY WELL INLAND
BEFORE DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS AND FORECAST DEPICTS THIS
WELL.

THE EVENING UPDATE REMOVES MENTION OF THUNDER.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT...TODAY`S WEATHER IN CENTRAL FL WAS GRACIOUSLY DONATED TO US
BY THE CITY OF LONDON. OR WAS IT SEATTLE? TAKE YOUR PICK...EITHER
WAY THIS HAS BEEN A TRULY DREARY DAY. S-SW WINDS OVERRUNNING THE 2-
3KFT NRLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AND OCNL LIGHT RAIN COVERING THE SRN 2/3 (ISM TO
MCO TO NORTH OF TTS) ADDING TO THE MISERY ARE 10-20MPH NRLY
WINDS...MAKING THE CHILL THAT MUCH MORE BITING. IT`S BECOME
PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT SHAVING A COUPLE DEGS OFF OF MAX TEMPS WAS A
SMALL STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...THE KEY WORD BEING "SMALL".
ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT ARE SEEING OR WILL SEE 60F TODAY ARE THOSE
THAT NEVER FELL BELOW 60F BEHIND THE FROPA THU MORNING OR OVERNIGHT
(I.E THE TREASURE COAST). OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE EITHER
HELD STEADY IN THE M50S-L60S OR HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO SINCE THIS MORNING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WILL WIND UP BUSTING HIGH
BY A FULL 2-3 CATS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE LARGE COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH OF FL BUILDS EWD...
BLYR WINDS WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO DO SO OVER
LAND AS NRLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL HOLD FIRM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NE WELL OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLC AS 41010/SPGF1 ARE E OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...
WHICH IS STILL APPARENT ON BOTH RADAR/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY). THIS
TROUGH OR COASTAL FRONT WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...THEN SLOWLY EDGE WEST TOWARD THE INTERIOR THROUGH
SUNRISE. WE`LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE THEY DID ALL MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
WHILE MINS OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE JUMPING
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT.

SAT...TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH MILDER
MARINE AIR AND OCNL BREEZY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BDRY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60 COAST/50
INLAND) AS LOW LEVEL MCONVG WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BY 1-2F AREAWIDE.

SAT NIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. POPS IN SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY
ALL AREAS...BUT COASTAL ZONES FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER VALUES WITH
ONSHORE MOVING ATLANTIC SHOWERS. MILD OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA AND UPPER 60S NEAR 70S TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A
LITTLE OVER SATURDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT THE
COAST. MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...HAVE POPS AT
30/40% ALL AREAS FOR CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEAK SEAS AT 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY SO ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE SE AND RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER 80S INTERIOR AND ON THE COAST RANGING FROM MID
70S NORTHERN COAST AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH. LINGERING MOISTURE
POOLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND HEATING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL TO THE BAHAMAS. SE
FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION... PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

IFR CIGS OVC005-009 WITH MVFR VSBYS IN ST AND -RADZ/BR
HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF A KISM-KMCO-KEVB LINE...AND THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE KEEPS IMC ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z SAT. WHILE MOS
SUGGEST IFR WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 5 AERODROMES AFTER
00Z...STOPPED SHORT F THAT AND WENT PREVAILING BKN-OVC012-015 AFT
00Z. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-REST OF THE NIGHT...

WINDS AT BUOY 009 HAVE COME DOWN A COUPLE OF KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SEAS
AROUND 6 FEET. THE CMAN SITE AT SEBASTIAN INLET WAS RECORDING NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 22 KNOTS. THE SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF
THE BEACH WERE RECORDING E 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS. BUOY REPORTS IN LINE
WITH ONGOING MARINE FORECAST.

UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

OVERNIGHT/SUN...MADE MINOR TWEAK TO EXTEND SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 4
AM FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BEFORE FULL SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED PEAK WINDSPEEDS
BY AROUND 5KT...AND NOW KEEP THEM BELOW 25KT FOR THE EVENT...SO FOR
NOW NO NEED TO CONSIDER ANY SORT OF ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT LATE TONIGHT...AND 6-9FT ON SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-MON...12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS
PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.
SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TOWARD THE EAST
BUT SLOWER RESPONSE OF SEAS EXPECTED TO KEEP SCA CONDITIONS UP INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WITH 4-5 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  66  62  75 /  30  60  50  30
MCO  58  75  62  80 /  20  50  40  40
MLB  62  74  67  77 /  40  60  50  40
VRB  65  76  68  80 /  50  60  50  40
LEE  54  70  59  79 /  20  50  40  40
SFB  57  72  60  79 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  58  74  61  80 /  20  50  40  40
FPR  66  76  69  79 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMLB 280102
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING WEST AND FLATTENING A LITTLE IN THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST LARGE SCALE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS ARE SHOWING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS OVER WATER AND AT THE
COAST TO BECOME NORTHEAST WHILE REMAINING MORE NORTHERLY INLAND.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS
SHOW THE SAME...MOIST AND WARMER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE MOVING OVERTOP A SHALLOW COOLER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW. THIS
SET UP INDICATES CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND WORKING THEIR WAY WELL INLAND
BEFORE DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS AND FORECAST DEPICTS THIS
WELL.

THE EVENING UPDATE REMOVES MENTION OF THUNDER.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT...TODAY`S WEATHER IN CENTRAL FL WAS GRACIOUSLY DONATED TO US
BY THE CITY OF LONDON. OR WAS IT SEATTLE? TAKE YOUR PICK...EITHER
WAY THIS HAS BEEN A TRULY DREARY DAY. S-SW WINDS OVERRUNNING THE 2-
3KFT NRLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AND OCNL LIGHT RAIN COVERING THE SRN 2/3 (ISM TO
MCO TO NORTH OF TTS) ADDING TO THE MISERY ARE 10-20MPH NRLY
WINDS...MAKING THE CHILL THAT MUCH MORE BITING. IT`S BECOME
PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT SHAVING A COUPLE DEGS OFF OF MAX TEMPS WAS A
SMALL STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...THE KEY WORD BEING "SMALL".
ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT ARE SEEING OR WILL SEE 60F TODAY ARE THOSE
THAT NEVER FELL BELOW 60F BEHIND THE FROPA THU MORNING OR OVERNIGHT
(I.E THE TREASURE COAST). OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE EITHER
HELD STEADY IN THE M50S-L60S OR HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO SINCE THIS MORNING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WILL WIND UP BUSTING HIGH
BY A FULL 2-3 CATS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE LARGE COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH OF FL BUILDS EWD...
BLYR WINDS WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO DO SO OVER
LAND AS NRLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL HOLD FIRM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NE WELL OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLC AS 41010/SPGF1 ARE E OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...
WHICH IS STILL APPARENT ON BOTH RADAR/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY). THIS
TROUGH OR COASTAL FRONT WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...THEN SLOWLY EDGE WEST TOWARD THE INTERIOR THROUGH
SUNRISE. WE`LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE THEY DID ALL MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
WHILE MINS OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE JUMPING
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT.

SAT...TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH MILDER
MARINE AIR AND OCNL BREEZY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BDRY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60 COAST/50
INLAND) AS LOW LEVEL MCONVG WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BY 1-2F AREAWIDE.

SAT NIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. POPS IN SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY
ALL AREAS...BUT COASTAL ZONES FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER VALUES WITH
ONSHORE MOVING ATLANTIC SHOWERS. MILD OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA AND UPPER 60S NEAR 70S TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A
LITTLE OVER SATURDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT THE
COAST. MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...HAVE POPS AT
30/40% ALL AREAS FOR CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEAK SEAS AT 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY SO ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE SE AND RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER 80S INTERIOR AND ON THE COAST RANGING FROM MID
70S NORTHERN COAST AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH. LINGERING MOISTURE
POOLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND HEATING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL TO THE BAHAMAS. SE
FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION... PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

IFR CIGS OVC005-009 WITH MVFR VSBYS IN ST AND -RADZ/BR
HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF A KISM-KMCO-KEVB LINE...AND THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE KEEPS IMC ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z SAT. WHILE MOS
SUGGEST IFR WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 5 AERODROMES AFTER
00Z...STOPPED SHORT F THAT AND WENT PREVAILING BKN-OVC012-015 AFT
00Z. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-REST OF THE NIGHT...

WINDS AT BUOY 009 HAVE COME DOWN A COUPLE OF KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SEAS
AROUND 6 FEET. THE CMAN SITE AT SEBASTIAN INLET WAS RECORDING NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 22 KNOTS. THE SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF
THE BEACH WERE RECORDING E 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS. BUOY REPORTS IN LINE
WITH ONGOING MARINE FORECAST.

UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

OVERNIGHT/SUN...MADE MINOR TWEAK TO EXTEND SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 4
AM FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BEFORE FULL SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED PEAK WINDSPEEDS
BY AROUND 5KT...AND NOW KEEP THEM BELOW 25KT FOR THE EVENT...SO FOR
NOW NO NEED TO CONSIDER ANY SORT OF ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT LATE TONIGHT...AND 6-9FT ON SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-MON...12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS
PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.
SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TOWARD THE EAST
BUT SLOWER RESPONSE OF SEAS EXPECTED TO KEEP SCA CONDITIONS UP INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WITH 4-5 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  66  62  75 /  30  60  50  30
MCO  58  75  62  80 /  20  50  40  40
MLB  62  74  67  77 /  40  60  50  40
VRB  65  76  68  80 /  50  60  50  40
LEE  54  70  59  79 /  20  50  40  40
SFB  57  72  60  79 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  58  74  61  80 /  20  50  40  40
FPR  66  76  69  79 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280102
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING WEST AND FLATTENING A LITTLE IN THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST LARGE SCALE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS ARE SHOWING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS OVER WATER AND AT THE
COAST TO BECOME NORTHEAST WHILE REMAINING MORE NORTHERLY INLAND.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS
SHOW THE SAME...MOIST AND WARMER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE MOVING OVERTOP A SHALLOW COOLER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW. THIS
SET UP INDICATES CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND WORKING THEIR WAY WELL INLAND
BEFORE DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS AND FORECAST DEPICTS THIS
WELL.

THE EVENING UPDATE REMOVES MENTION OF THUNDER.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT...TODAY`S WEATHER IN CENTRAL FL WAS GRACIOUSLY DONATED TO US
BY THE CITY OF LONDON. OR WAS IT SEATTLE? TAKE YOUR PICK...EITHER
WAY THIS HAS BEEN A TRULY DREARY DAY. S-SW WINDS OVERRUNNING THE 2-
3KFT NRLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AND OCNL LIGHT RAIN COVERING THE SRN 2/3 (ISM TO
MCO TO NORTH OF TTS) ADDING TO THE MISERY ARE 10-20MPH NRLY
WINDS...MAKING THE CHILL THAT MUCH MORE BITING. IT`S BECOME
PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT SHAVING A COUPLE DEGS OFF OF MAX TEMPS WAS A
SMALL STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...THE KEY WORD BEING "SMALL".
ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT ARE SEEING OR WILL SEE 60F TODAY ARE THOSE
THAT NEVER FELL BELOW 60F BEHIND THE FROPA THU MORNING OR OVERNIGHT
(I.E THE TREASURE COAST). OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE EITHER
HELD STEADY IN THE M50S-L60S OR HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO SINCE THIS MORNING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WILL WIND UP BUSTING HIGH
BY A FULL 2-3 CATS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE LARGE COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH OF FL BUILDS EWD...
BLYR WINDS WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO DO SO OVER
LAND AS NRLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL HOLD FIRM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NE WELL OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLC AS 41010/SPGF1 ARE E OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...
WHICH IS STILL APPARENT ON BOTH RADAR/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY). THIS
TROUGH OR COASTAL FRONT WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...THEN SLOWLY EDGE WEST TOWARD THE INTERIOR THROUGH
SUNRISE. WE`LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE THEY DID ALL MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
WHILE MINS OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE JUMPING
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT.

SAT...TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH MILDER
MARINE AIR AND OCNL BREEZY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BDRY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60 COAST/50
INLAND) AS LOW LEVEL MCONVG WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BY 1-2F AREAWIDE.

SAT NIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. POPS IN SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY
ALL AREAS...BUT COASTAL ZONES FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER VALUES WITH
ONSHORE MOVING ATLANTIC SHOWERS. MILD OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA AND UPPER 60S NEAR 70S TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A
LITTLE OVER SATURDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT THE
COAST. MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...HAVE POPS AT
30/40% ALL AREAS FOR CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEAK SEAS AT 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY SO ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE SE AND RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER 80S INTERIOR AND ON THE COAST RANGING FROM MID
70S NORTHERN COAST AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH. LINGERING MOISTURE
POOLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND HEATING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL TO THE BAHAMAS. SE
FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION... PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

IFR CIGS OVC005-009 WITH MVFR VSBYS IN ST AND -RADZ/BR
HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF A KISM-KMCO-KEVB LINE...AND THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE KEEPS IMC ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z SAT. WHILE MOS
SUGGEST IFR WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 5 AERODROMES AFTER
00Z...STOPPED SHORT F THAT AND WENT PREVAILING BKN-OVC012-015 AFT
00Z. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-REST OF THE NIGHT...

WINDS AT BUOY 009 HAVE COME DOWN A COUPLE OF KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SEAS
AROUND 6 FEET. THE CMAN SITE AT SEBASTIAN INLET WAS RECORDING NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 22 KNOTS. THE SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF
THE BEACH WERE RECORDING E 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS. BUOY REPORTS IN LINE
WITH ONGOING MARINE FORECAST.

UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

OVERNIGHT/SUN...MADE MINOR TWEAK TO EXTEND SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 4
AM FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BEFORE FULL SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED PEAK WINDSPEEDS
BY AROUND 5KT...AND NOW KEEP THEM BELOW 25KT FOR THE EVENT...SO FOR
NOW NO NEED TO CONSIDER ANY SORT OF ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT LATE TONIGHT...AND 6-9FT ON SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-MON...12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS
PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.
SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TOWARD THE EAST
BUT SLOWER RESPONSE OF SEAS EXPECTED TO KEEP SCA CONDITIONS UP INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WITH 4-5 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  66  62  75 /  30  60  50  30
MCO  58  75  62  80 /  20  50  40  40
MLB  62  74  67  77 /  40  60  50  40
VRB  65  76  68  80 /  50  60  50  40
LEE  54  70  59  79 /  20  50  40  40
SFB  57  72  60  79 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  58  74  61  80 /  20  50  40  40
FPR  66  76  69  79 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 280102
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
8 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE INVERTED TROUGH
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MOVING WEST AND FLATTENING A LITTLE IN THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST LARGE SCALE FLOW OVERNIGHT. THE VERTICAL WIND
PROFILERS ARE SHOWING A SLOW SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WINDS OVER WATER AND AT THE
COAST TO BECOME NORTHEAST WHILE REMAINING MORE NORTHERLY INLAND.
MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR AND IR LOOPS
SHOW THE SAME...MOIST AND WARMER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE MOVING OVERTOP A SHALLOW COOLER NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW. THIS
SET UP INDICATES CONTINUED LOW CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL SPRINKLES OR
LIGHT RAIN COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC AND WORKING THEIR WAY WELL INLAND
BEFORE DISSIPATING. CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS AND FORECAST DEPICTS THIS
WELL.

THE EVENING UPDATE REMOVES MENTION OF THUNDER.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT...TODAY`S WEATHER IN CENTRAL FL WAS GRACIOUSLY DONATED TO US
BY THE CITY OF LONDON. OR WAS IT SEATTLE? TAKE YOUR PICK...EITHER
WAY THIS HAS BEEN A TRULY DREARY DAY. S-SW WINDS OVERRUNNING THE 2-
3KFT NRLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AND OCNL LIGHT RAIN COVERING THE SRN 2/3 (ISM TO
MCO TO NORTH OF TTS) ADDING TO THE MISERY ARE 10-20MPH NRLY
WINDS...MAKING THE CHILL THAT MUCH MORE BITING. IT`S BECOME
PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT SHAVING A COUPLE DEGS OFF OF MAX TEMPS WAS A
SMALL STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...THE KEY WORD BEING "SMALL".
ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT ARE SEEING OR WILL SEE 60F TODAY ARE THOSE
THAT NEVER FELL BELOW 60F BEHIND THE FROPA THU MORNING OR OVERNIGHT
(I.E THE TREASURE COAST). OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE EITHER
HELD STEADY IN THE M50S-L60S OR HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO SINCE THIS MORNING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WILL WIND UP BUSTING HIGH
BY A FULL 2-3 CATS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE LARGE COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH OF FL BUILDS EWD...
BLYR WINDS WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO DO SO OVER
LAND AS NRLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL HOLD FIRM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NE WELL OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLC AS 41010/SPGF1 ARE E OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...
WHICH IS STILL APPARENT ON BOTH RADAR/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY). THIS
TROUGH OR COASTAL FRONT WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...THEN SLOWLY EDGE WEST TOWARD THE INTERIOR THROUGH
SUNRISE. WE`LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE THEY DID ALL MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
WHILE MINS OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE JUMPING
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT.

SAT...TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH MILDER
MARINE AIR AND OCNL BREEZY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BDRY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60 COAST/50
INLAND) AS LOW LEVEL MCONVG WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BY 1-2F AREAWIDE.

SAT NIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. POPS IN SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY
ALL AREAS...BUT COASTAL ZONES FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER VALUES WITH
ONSHORE MOVING ATLANTIC SHOWERS. MILD OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA AND UPPER 60S NEAR 70S TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A
LITTLE OVER SATURDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT THE
COAST. MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...HAVE POPS AT
30/40% ALL AREAS FOR CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEAK SEAS AT 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY SO ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE SE AND RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER 80S INTERIOR AND ON THE COAST RANGING FROM MID
70S NORTHERN COAST AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH. LINGERING MOISTURE
POOLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND HEATING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL TO THE BAHAMAS. SE
FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION... PERSISTENCE FORECAST WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND MVFR
VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

IFR CIGS OVC005-009 WITH MVFR VSBYS IN ST AND -RADZ/BR
HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF A KISM-KMCO-KEVB LINE...AND THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE KEEPS IMC ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z SAT. WHILE MOS
SUGGEST IFR WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 5 AERODROMES AFTER
00Z...STOPPED SHORT F THAT AND WENT PREVAILING BKN-OVC012-015 AFT
00Z. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-REST OF THE NIGHT...

WINDS AT BUOY 009 HAVE COME DOWN A COUPLE OF KNOTS AS THEY SHIFT
FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SEAS
AROUND 6 FEET. THE CMAN SITE AT SEBASTIAN INLET WAS RECORDING NORTH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 22 KNOTS. THE SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OFF
THE BEACH WERE RECORDING E 3 TO 6 FOOT SEAS. BUOY REPORTS IN LINE
WITH ONGOING MARINE FORECAST.

UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

OVERNIGHT/SUN...MADE MINOR TWEAK TO EXTEND SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 4
AM FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BEFORE FULL SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED PEAK WINDSPEEDS
BY AROUND 5KT...AND NOW KEEP THEM BELOW 25KT FOR THE EVENT...SO FOR
NOW NO NEED TO CONSIDER ANY SORT OF ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT LATE TONIGHT...AND 6-9FT ON SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-MON...12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS
PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.
SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TOWARD THE EAST
BUT SLOWER RESPONSE OF SEAS EXPECTED TO KEEP SCA CONDITIONS UP INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WITH 4-5 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  66  62  75 /  30  60  50  30
MCO  58  75  62  80 /  20  50  40  40
MLB  62  74  67  77 /  40  60  50  40
VRB  65  76  68  80 /  50  60  50  40
LEE  54  70  59  79 /  20  50  40  40
SFB  57  72  60  79 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  58  74  61  80 /  20  50  40  40
FPR  66  76  69  79 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WIMMER
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMFL 272342 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
642 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
THE CEILINGS AT MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING HAVE BEEN IN THE IFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR KMIA, KTMB,
AND KAPF WHICH WHERE IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS AT
KMIA...KTMB...AND KAPF SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
02Z TONIGHT WITH REST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES IN THE IFR
CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD START TO INCREASE INTO THE MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z ON SATURDAY AND BY 18Z SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 360 DEGREES AT MOST OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN NORTHEAST AND EAST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW
SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF KAPF AND KPBI TONIGHT BEFORE
AFFECTING ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES ON SATURDAY.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO 80
DEGREES AT TAMIAMI. THICK CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING...AND A WEAK SEA
BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. ELSEWHERE...A
DREARY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LAKE REGION
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS UPGLIDE
CONTINUES AND AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE LAKE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCING RAINFALL
CHANCES. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LESSER CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE REGION...SO IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S
AT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THE REGION WILL LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL
TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LONG PERIOD 2-3 FOOT
SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FEET
TONIGHT...7 FEET ON SATURDAY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND UP TO
8 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
OVER THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  80  73  82 /  40  60  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  80  73  81 /  30  40  20  10
MIAMI            70  83  73  83 /  30  30  10  10
NAPLES           62  81  67  85 /  20  50  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 272342 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
642 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
THE CEILINGS AT MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES EARLY THIS
EVENING HAVE BEEN IN THE IFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR KMIA, KTMB,
AND KAPF WHICH WHERE IN THE MVFR CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS AT
KMIA...KTMB...AND KAPF SHOULD FALL INTO THE IFR CONDITIONS AFTER
02Z TONIGHT WITH REST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES IN THE IFR
CONDITIONS. THE CEILINGS SHOULD START TO INCREASE INTO THE MVFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z ON SATURDAY AND BY 18Z SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 360 DEGREES AT MOST OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN NORTHEAST AND EAST DIRECTION ON SATURDAY WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW
SHOWERS THAT AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF KAPF AND KPBI TONIGHT BEFORE
AFFECTING ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES ON SATURDAY.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO 80
DEGREES AT TAMIAMI. THICK CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING...AND A WEAK SEA
BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. ELSEWHERE...A
DREARY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LAKE REGION
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS UPGLIDE
CONTINUES AND AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE LAKE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCING RAINFALL
CHANCES. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LESSER CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE REGION...SO IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S
AT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THE REGION WILL LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL
TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LONG PERIOD 2-3 FOOT
SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FEET
TONIGHT...7 FEET ON SATURDAY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND UP TO
8 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
OVER THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  80  73  82 /  40  60  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  80  73  81 /  30  40  20  10
MIAMI            70  83  73  83 /  30  30  10  10
NAPLES           62  81  67  85 /  20  50  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KTAE 272113
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure moving over the Ohio River Valley will bring a
northeasterly flow at the sfc. That means an increase in low level
moisture and subsequently more cloud cover, particularly over the
coastal waters and Big Bend. Temps will range from the mid to
upper 30s in the northwest to lower to mid 40s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]
VFR conditions are expected today with only
high clouds. In the overnight to early morning hours low clouds will
form (VFR). By morning, MVFR conditions are possible at TLH and VLD.
Northerly winds will shift to northeasterly and will remain below 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  58  50  68  58 /   0  20  20  10  20
Panama City   43  59  51  63  58 /   0  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      42  54  48  67  59 /   0  20  30  20  20
Cross City    45  61  54  73  60 /  10  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  45  60  55  65  61 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 272113
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure moving over the Ohio River Valley will bring a
northeasterly flow at the sfc. That means an increase in low level
moisture and subsequently more cloud cover, particularly over the
coastal waters and Big Bend. Temps will range from the mid to
upper 30s in the northwest to lower to mid 40s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]
VFR conditions are expected today with only
high clouds. In the overnight to early morning hours low clouds will
form (VFR). By morning, MVFR conditions are possible at TLH and VLD.
Northerly winds will shift to northeasterly and will remain below 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  58  50  68  58 /   0  20  20  10  20
Panama City   43  59  51  63  58 /   0  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      42  54  48  67  59 /   0  20  30  20  20
Cross City    45  61  54  73  60 /  10  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  45  60  55  65  61 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 272113
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure moving over the Ohio River Valley will bring a
northeasterly flow at the sfc. That means an increase in low level
moisture and subsequently more cloud cover, particularly over the
coastal waters and Big Bend. Temps will range from the mid to
upper 30s in the northwest to lower to mid 40s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]
VFR conditions are expected today with only
high clouds. In the overnight to early morning hours low clouds will
form (VFR). By morning, MVFR conditions are possible at TLH and VLD.
Northerly winds will shift to northeasterly and will remain below 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  58  50  68  58 /   0  20  20  10  20
Panama City   43  59  51  63  58 /   0  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      42  54  48  67  59 /   0  20  30  20  20
Cross City    45  61  54  73  60 /  10  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  45  60  55  65  61 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 272113
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
413 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure moving over the Ohio River Valley will bring a
northeasterly flow at the sfc. That means an increase in low level
moisture and subsequently more cloud cover, particularly over the
coastal waters and Big Bend. Temps will range from the mid to
upper 30s in the northwest to lower to mid 40s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
The short term period will start out fairly cool for most of the
forecast area, especially locations north and east of Valdosta and
Albany, GA. High pressure along the Appalachians will funnel cool,
and somewhat moist, air southwest below a fairly strong 900-950mb
inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach the 50s in
these locations on Saturday afternoon. Other locations will not
warm much either, only to the upper 50s to low 60s. In the upper
levels, a shortwave disturbance associated with a small 500mb vort
max will translate east-northeastwards through Saturday afternoon.
This feature should generate enough lift to produce light to
moderate rain over areas southeast of Tallahassee. After the
shortwave passage skies will still remain somewhat cloudy as
abundant upper level moisture in the southern stream will keep
conditions cool and cloudy on Sunday.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
After a cool weekend, conditions will quickly change as the
Appalachian high translates eastwards. Winds will begin to shift
southeast beginning on Monday morning. With a warming and moistening
trend ongoing through the period, high temperatures will be
near-to-above normal and in the mid-70s by Tuesday afternoon.
Limited chances for rain, mostly in the form of isolated showers
will impact the forecast area through Wednesday night. A frontal
passage late Wednesday night should provide a better chance for
heavier rain and possibly some thunderstorms. Behind the front, a
return to below-normal temperatures will prevail through the end of
the period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday]
VFR conditions are expected today with only
high clouds. In the overnight to early morning hours low clouds will
form (VFR). By morning, MVFR conditions are possible at TLH and VLD.
Northerly winds will shift to northeasterly and will remain below 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

A tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an
Appalachian high will help increase winds to advisory levels
beginning tonight and will last through Sunday morning. Through
the middle of the week, seas will hover around 2-4 feet as winds
remain elevated in advance of Thursdays morning`s frontal passage.
Late in the week seas could increase to advisory levels again as
winds increase behind a cold front Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall from earlier this week continues to progress through area
river systems. Rivers levels continue to be well above normal across
the area with the Kinchafoonee River near Dawson likely to reach
minor flood stage this weekend. The Withlacoochee River near
Valdosta will also approach flood stage later this weekend.

Controlled releases from Lake Seminole continue to push the
Apalachicola River higher at Blountstown. The river remains in minor
flood stage at this point and will do so likely through the weekend.

With no significant rainfall expected until Wednesday, no additional
flooding at area river points are expected for the next few days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   42  58  50  68  58 /   0  20  20  10  20
Panama City   43  59  51  63  58 /   0  10  10  10  20
Dothan        37  55  44  60  54 /   0  10  10  10  30
Albany        38  51  44  59  53 /   0  10  20  30  30
Valdosta      42  54  48  67  59 /   0  20  30  20  20
Cross City    45  61  54  73  60 /  10  50  30  10  20
Apalachicola  45  60  55  65  61 /  10  30  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
LONG TERM...GODSEY/DOBBS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GODSEY/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...TODAY`S WEATHER IN CENTRAL FL WAS GRACIOUSLY DONATED TO US
BY THE CITY OF LONDON. OR WAS IT SEATTLE? TAKE YOUR PICK...EITHER
WAY THIS HAS BEEN A TRULY DREARY DAY. S-SW WINDS OVERRUNNING THE 2-
3KFT NRLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AND OCNL LIGHT RAIN COVERING THE SRN 2/3 (ISM TO
MCO TO NORTH OF TTS) ADDING TO THE MISERY ARE 10-20MPH NRLY
WINDS...MAKING THE CHILL THAT MUCH MORE BITING. IT`S BECOME
PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT SHAVING A COUPLE DEGS OFF OF MAX TEMPS WAS A
SMALL STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...THE KEY WORD BEING "SMALL".
ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT ARE SEEING OR WILL SEE 60F TODAY ARE THOSE
THAT NEVER FELL BELOW 60F BEHIND THE FROPA THU MORNING OR OVERNIGHT
(I.E THE TREASURE COAST). OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE EITHER
HELD STEADY IN THE M50S-L60S OR HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO SINCE THIS MORNING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WILL WIND UP BUSTING HIGH
BY A FULL 2-3 CATS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE LARGE COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH OF FL BUILDS EWD...
BLYR WINDS WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO DO SO OVER
LAND AS NRLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL HOLD FIRM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NE WELL OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLC AS 41010/SPGF1 ARE E OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...
WHICH IS STILL APPARENT ON BOTH RADAR/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY). THIS
TROUGH OR COASTAL FRONT WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...THEN SLOWLY EDGE WEST TOWARD THE INTERIOR THROUGH
SUNRISE. WE`LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE THEY DID ALL MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
WHILE MINS OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE JUMPING
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT.

SAT...TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH MILDER
MARINE AIR AND OCNL BREEZY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BDRY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60 COAST/50
INLAND) AS LOW LEVEL MCONVG WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BY 1-2F AREAWIDE.

SAT NIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. POPS IN SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY
ALL AREAS...BUT COASTAL ZONES FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER VALUES WITH
ONSHORE MOVING ATLANTIC SHOWERS. MILD OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA AND UPPER 60S NEAR 70S TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A
LITTLE OVER SATURDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT THE
COAST. MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...HAVE POPS AT
30/40% ALL AREAS FOR CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEAK SEAS AT 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY SO ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE SE AND RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER 80S INTERIOR AND ON THE COAST RANGING FROM MID
70S NORTHERN COAST AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH. LINGERING MOISTURE
POOLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND HEATING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL TO THE BAHAMAS. SE
FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS OVC005-009 WITH MVFR VSBYS IN ST AND -RADZ/BR
HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF A KISM-KMCO-KEVB LINE...AND THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE KEEPS IMC ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z SAT. WHILE MOS
SUGGEST IFR WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 5 AERODROMES AFTER
00Z...STOPPED SHORT F THAT AND WENT PREVAILING BKN-OVC012-015 AFT
00Z. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...

OVERNIGHT/SUN...MADE MINOR TWEAK TO EXTEND SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 4
AM FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BEFORE FULL SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED PEAK WINDSPEEDS
BY AROUND 5KT...AND NOW KEEP THEM BELOW 25KT FOR THE EVENT...SO FOR
NOW NO NEED TO CONSIDER ANY SORT OF ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT LATE TONIGHT...AND 6-9FT ON SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-MON...12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS
PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.
SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TOWARD THE EAST
BUT SLOWER RESPONSE OF SEAS EXPECTED TO KEEP SCA CONDITIONS UP INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WITH 4-5 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  66  62  75 /  30  60  50  30
MCO  58  75  62  80 /  20  50  40  40
MLB  62  74  67  77 /  40  60  50  40
VRB  65  76  68  80 /  50  60  50  40
LEE  54  70  59  79 /  20  50  40  40
SFB  57  72  60  79 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  58  74  61  80 /  20  50  40  40
FPR  66  76  69  79 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....GLITTO




000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...TODAY`S WEATHER IN CENTRAL FL WAS GRACIOUSLY DONATED TO US
BY THE CITY OF LONDON. OR WAS IT SEATTLE? TAKE YOUR PICK...EITHER
WAY THIS HAS BEEN A TRULY DREARY DAY. S-SW WINDS OVERRUNNING THE 2-
3KFT NRLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AND OCNL LIGHT RAIN COVERING THE SRN 2/3 (ISM TO
MCO TO NORTH OF TTS) ADDING TO THE MISERY ARE 10-20MPH NRLY
WINDS...MAKING THE CHILL THAT MUCH MORE BITING. IT`S BECOME
PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT SHAVING A COUPLE DEGS OFF OF MAX TEMPS WAS A
SMALL STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...THE KEY WORD BEING "SMALL".
ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT ARE SEEING OR WILL SEE 60F TODAY ARE THOSE
THAT NEVER FELL BELOW 60F BEHIND THE FROPA THU MORNING OR OVERNIGHT
(I.E THE TREASURE COAST). OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE EITHER
HELD STEADY IN THE M50S-L60S OR HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO SINCE THIS MORNING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WILL WIND UP BUSTING HIGH
BY A FULL 2-3 CATS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE LARGE COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH OF FL BUILDS EWD...
BLYR WINDS WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO DO SO OVER
LAND AS NRLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL HOLD FIRM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NE WELL OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLC AS 41010/SPGF1 ARE E OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...
WHICH IS STILL APPARENT ON BOTH RADAR/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY). THIS
TROUGH OR COASTAL FRONT WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...THEN SLOWLY EDGE WEST TOWARD THE INTERIOR THROUGH
SUNRISE. WE`LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE THEY DID ALL MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
WHILE MINS OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE JUMPING
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT.

SAT...TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH MILDER
MARINE AIR AND OCNL BREEZY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BDRY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60 COAST/50
INLAND) AS LOW LEVEL MCONVG WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BY 1-2F AREAWIDE.

SAT NIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. POPS IN SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY
ALL AREAS...BUT COASTAL ZONES FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER VALUES WITH
ONSHORE MOVING ATLANTIC SHOWERS. MILD OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA AND UPPER 60S NEAR 70S TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A
LITTLE OVER SATURDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT THE
COAST. MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...HAVE POPS AT
30/40% ALL AREAS FOR CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEAK SEAS AT 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY SO ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE SE AND RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER 80S INTERIOR AND ON THE COAST RANGING FROM MID
70S NORTHERN COAST AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH. LINGERING MOISTURE
POOLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND HEATING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL TO THE BAHAMAS. SE
FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS OVC005-009 WITH MVFR VSBYS IN ST AND -RADZ/BR
HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF A KISM-KMCO-KEVB LINE...AND THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE KEEPS IMC ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z SAT. WHILE MOS
SUGGEST IFR WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 5 AERODROMES AFTER
00Z...STOPPED SHORT F THAT AND WENT PREVAILING BKN-OVC012-015 AFT
00Z. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...

OVERNIGHT/SUN...MADE MINOR TWEAK TO EXTEND SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 4
AM FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BEFORE FULL SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED PEAK WINDSPEEDS
BY AROUND 5KT...AND NOW KEEP THEM BELOW 25KT FOR THE EVENT...SO FOR
NOW NO NEED TO CONSIDER ANY SORT OF ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT LATE TONIGHT...AND 6-9FT ON SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-MON...12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS
PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.
SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TOWARD THE EAST
BUT SLOWER RESPONSE OF SEAS EXPECTED TO KEEP SCA CONDITIONS UP INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WITH 4-5 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  66  62  75 /  30  60  50  30
MCO  58  75  62  80 /  20  50  40  40
MLB  62  74  67  77 /  40  60  50  40
VRB  65  76  68  80 /  50  60  50  40
LEE  54  70  59  79 /  20  50  40  40
SFB  57  72  60  79 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  58  74  61  80 /  20  50  40  40
FPR  66  76  69  79 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....GLITTO




000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...TODAY`S WEATHER IN CENTRAL FL WAS GRACIOUSLY DONATED TO US
BY THE CITY OF LONDON. OR WAS IT SEATTLE? TAKE YOUR PICK...EITHER
WAY THIS HAS BEEN A TRULY DREARY DAY. S-SW WINDS OVERRUNNING THE 2-
3KFT NRLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AND OCNL LIGHT RAIN COVERING THE SRN 2/3 (ISM TO
MCO TO NORTH OF TTS) ADDING TO THE MISERY ARE 10-20MPH NRLY
WINDS...MAKING THE CHILL THAT MUCH MORE BITING. IT`S BECOME
PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT SHAVING A COUPLE DEGS OFF OF MAX TEMPS WAS A
SMALL STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...THE KEY WORD BEING "SMALL".
ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT ARE SEEING OR WILL SEE 60F TODAY ARE THOSE
THAT NEVER FELL BELOW 60F BEHIND THE FROPA THU MORNING OR OVERNIGHT
(I.E THE TREASURE COAST). OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE EITHER
HELD STEADY IN THE M50S-L60S OR HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO SINCE THIS MORNING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WILL WIND UP BUSTING HIGH
BY A FULL 2-3 CATS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE LARGE COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH OF FL BUILDS EWD...
BLYR WINDS WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO DO SO OVER
LAND AS NRLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL HOLD FIRM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NE WELL OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLC AS 41010/SPGF1 ARE E OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...
WHICH IS STILL APPARENT ON BOTH RADAR/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY). THIS
TROUGH OR COASTAL FRONT WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...THEN SLOWLY EDGE WEST TOWARD THE INTERIOR THROUGH
SUNRISE. WE`LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE THEY DID ALL MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
WHILE MINS OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE JUMPING
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT.

SAT...TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH MILDER
MARINE AIR AND OCNL BREEZY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BDRY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60 COAST/50
INLAND) AS LOW LEVEL MCONVG WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BY 1-2F AREAWIDE.

SAT NIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. POPS IN SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY
ALL AREAS...BUT COASTAL ZONES FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER VALUES WITH
ONSHORE MOVING ATLANTIC SHOWERS. MILD OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA AND UPPER 60S NEAR 70S TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A
LITTLE OVER SATURDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT THE
COAST. MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...HAVE POPS AT
30/40% ALL AREAS FOR CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEAK SEAS AT 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY SO ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE SE AND RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER 80S INTERIOR AND ON THE COAST RANGING FROM MID
70S NORTHERN COAST AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH. LINGERING MOISTURE
POOLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND HEATING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL TO THE BAHAMAS. SE
FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS OVC005-009 WITH MVFR VSBYS IN ST AND -RADZ/BR
HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF A KISM-KMCO-KEVB LINE...AND THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE KEEPS IMC ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z SAT. WHILE MOS
SUGGEST IFR WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 5 AERODROMES AFTER
00Z...STOPPED SHORT F THAT AND WENT PREVAILING BKN-OVC012-015 AFT
00Z. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...

OVERNIGHT/SUN...MADE MINOR TWEAK TO EXTEND SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 4
AM FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BEFORE FULL SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED PEAK WINDSPEEDS
BY AROUND 5KT...AND NOW KEEP THEM BELOW 25KT FOR THE EVENT...SO FOR
NOW NO NEED TO CONSIDER ANY SORT OF ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT LATE TONIGHT...AND 6-9FT ON SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-MON...12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS
PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.
SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TOWARD THE EAST
BUT SLOWER RESPONSE OF SEAS EXPECTED TO KEEP SCA CONDITIONS UP INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WITH 4-5 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  66  62  75 /  30  60  50  30
MCO  58  75  62  80 /  20  50  40  40
MLB  62  74  67  77 /  40  60  50  40
VRB  65  76  68  80 /  50  60  50  40
LEE  54  70  59  79 /  20  50  40  40
SFB  57  72  60  79 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  58  74  61  80 /  20  50  40  40
FPR  66  76  69  79 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....GLITTO




000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...TODAY`S WEATHER IN CENTRAL FL WAS GRACIOUSLY DONATED TO US
BY THE CITY OF LONDON. OR WAS IT SEATTLE? TAKE YOUR PICK...EITHER
WAY THIS HAS BEEN A TRULY DREARY DAY. S-SW WINDS OVERRUNNING THE 2-
3KFT NRLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AND OCNL LIGHT RAIN COVERING THE SRN 2/3 (ISM TO
MCO TO NORTH OF TTS) ADDING TO THE MISERY ARE 10-20MPH NRLY
WINDS...MAKING THE CHILL THAT MUCH MORE BITING. IT`S BECOME
PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT SHAVING A COUPLE DEGS OFF OF MAX TEMPS WAS A
SMALL STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...THE KEY WORD BEING "SMALL".
ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT ARE SEEING OR WILL SEE 60F TODAY ARE THOSE
THAT NEVER FELL BELOW 60F BEHIND THE FROPA THU MORNING OR OVERNIGHT
(I.E THE TREASURE COAST). OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE EITHER
HELD STEADY IN THE M50S-L60S OR HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO SINCE THIS MORNING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WILL WIND UP BUSTING HIGH
BY A FULL 2-3 CATS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE LARGE COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH OF FL BUILDS EWD...
BLYR WINDS WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO DO SO OVER
LAND AS NRLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL HOLD FIRM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NE WELL OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLC AS 41010/SPGF1 ARE E OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...
WHICH IS STILL APPARENT ON BOTH RADAR/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY). THIS
TROUGH OR COASTAL FRONT WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...THEN SLOWLY EDGE WEST TOWARD THE INTERIOR THROUGH
SUNRISE. WE`LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE THEY DID ALL MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
WHILE MINS OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE JUMPING
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT.

SAT...TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH MILDER
MARINE AIR AND OCNL BREEZY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BDRY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60 COAST/50
INLAND) AS LOW LEVEL MCONVG WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BY 1-2F AREAWIDE.

SAT NIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. POPS IN SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY
ALL AREAS...BUT COASTAL ZONES FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER VALUES WITH
ONSHORE MOVING ATLANTIC SHOWERS. MILD OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA AND UPPER 60S NEAR 70S TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A
LITTLE OVER SATURDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT THE
COAST. MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...HAVE POPS AT
30/40% ALL AREAS FOR CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEAK SEAS AT 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY SO ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE SE AND RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER 80S INTERIOR AND ON THE COAST RANGING FROM MID
70S NORTHERN COAST AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH. LINGERING MOISTURE
POOLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND HEATING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL TO THE BAHAMAS. SE
FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS OVC005-009 WITH MVFR VSBYS IN ST AND -RADZ/BR
HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF A KISM-KMCO-KEVB LINE...AND THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE KEEPS IMC ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z SAT. WHILE MOS
SUGGEST IFR WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 5 AERODROMES AFTER
00Z...STOPPED SHORT F THAT AND WENT PREVAILING BKN-OVC012-015 AFT
00Z. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...

OVERNIGHT/SUN...MADE MINOR TWEAK TO EXTEND SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 4
AM FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BEFORE FULL SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED PEAK WINDSPEEDS
BY AROUND 5KT...AND NOW KEEP THEM BELOW 25KT FOR THE EVENT...SO FOR
NOW NO NEED TO CONSIDER ANY SORT OF ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT LATE TONIGHT...AND 6-9FT ON SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-MON...12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS
PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.
SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TOWARD THE EAST
BUT SLOWER RESPONSE OF SEAS EXPECTED TO KEEP SCA CONDITIONS UP INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WITH 4-5 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  66  62  75 /  30  60  50  30
MCO  58  75  62  80 /  20  50  40  40
MLB  62  74  67  77 /  40  60  50  40
VRB  65  76  68  80 /  50  60  50  40
LEE  54  70  59  79 /  20  50  40  40
SFB  57  72  60  79 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  58  74  61  80 /  20  50  40  40
FPR  66  76  69  79 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....GLITTO




000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...TODAY`S WEATHER IN CENTRAL FL WAS GRACIOUSLY DONATED TO US
BY THE CITY OF LONDON. OR WAS IT SEATTLE? TAKE YOUR PICK...EITHER
WAY THIS HAS BEEN A TRULY DREARY DAY. S-SW WINDS OVERRUNNING THE 2-
3KFT NRLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AND OCNL LIGHT RAIN COVERING THE SRN 2/3 (ISM TO
MCO TO NORTH OF TTS) ADDING TO THE MISERY ARE 10-20MPH NRLY
WINDS...MAKING THE CHILL THAT MUCH MORE BITING. IT`S BECOME
PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT SHAVING A COUPLE DEGS OFF OF MAX TEMPS WAS A
SMALL STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...THE KEY WORD BEING "SMALL".
ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT ARE SEEING OR WILL SEE 60F TODAY ARE THOSE
THAT NEVER FELL BELOW 60F BEHIND THE FROPA THU MORNING OR OVERNIGHT
(I.E THE TREASURE COAST). OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE EITHER
HELD STEADY IN THE M50S-L60S OR HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO SINCE THIS MORNING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WILL WIND UP BUSTING HIGH
BY A FULL 2-3 CATS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE LARGE COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH OF FL BUILDS EWD...
BLYR WINDS WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO DO SO OVER
LAND AS NRLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL HOLD FIRM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NE WELL OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLC AS 41010/SPGF1 ARE E OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...
WHICH IS STILL APPARENT ON BOTH RADAR/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY). THIS
TROUGH OR COASTAL FRONT WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...THEN SLOWLY EDGE WEST TOWARD THE INTERIOR THROUGH
SUNRISE. WE`LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE THEY DID ALL MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
WHILE MINS OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE JUMPING
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT.

SAT...TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH MILDER
MARINE AIR AND OCNL BREEZY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BDRY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60 COAST/50
INLAND) AS LOW LEVEL MCONVG WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BY 1-2F AREAWIDE.

SAT NIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. POPS IN SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY
ALL AREAS...BUT COASTAL ZONES FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER VALUES WITH
ONSHORE MOVING ATLANTIC SHOWERS. MILD OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA AND UPPER 60S NEAR 70S TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A
LITTLE OVER SATURDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT THE
COAST. MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...HAVE POPS AT
30/40% ALL AREAS FOR CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEAK SEAS AT 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY SO ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE SE AND RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER 80S INTERIOR AND ON THE COAST RANGING FROM MID
70S NORTHERN COAST AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH. LINGERING MOISTURE
POOLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND HEATING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL TO THE BAHAMAS. SE
FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS OVC005-009 WITH MVFR VSBYS IN ST AND -RADZ/BR
HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF A KISM-KMCO-KEVB LINE...AND THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE KEEPS IMC ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z SAT. WHILE MOS
SUGGEST IFR WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 5 AERODROMES AFTER
00Z...STOPPED SHORT F THAT AND WENT PREVAILING BKN-OVC012-015 AFT
00Z. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...

OVERNIGHT/SUN...MADE MINOR TWEAK TO EXTEND SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 4
AM FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BEFORE FULL SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED PEAK WINDSPEEDS
BY AROUND 5KT...AND NOW KEEP THEM BELOW 25KT FOR THE EVENT...SO FOR
NOW NO NEED TO CONSIDER ANY SORT OF ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT LATE TONIGHT...AND 6-9FT ON SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-MON...12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS
PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.
SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TOWARD THE EAST
BUT SLOWER RESPONSE OF SEAS EXPECTED TO KEEP SCA CONDITIONS UP INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WITH 4-5 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  66  62  75 /  30  60  50  30
MCO  58  75  62  80 /  20  50  40  40
MLB  62  74  67  77 /  40  60  50  40
VRB  65  76  68  80 /  50  60  50  40
LEE  54  70  59  79 /  20  50  40  40
SFB  57  72  60  79 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  58  74  61  80 /  20  50  40  40
FPR  66  76  69  79 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....GLITTO



000
FXUS62 KMLB 272046
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...TODAY`S WEATHER IN CENTRAL FL WAS GRACIOUSLY DONATED TO US
BY THE CITY OF LONDON. OR WAS IT SEATTLE? TAKE YOUR PICK...EITHER
WAY THIS HAS BEEN A TRULY DREARY DAY. S-SW WINDS OVERRUNNING THE 2-
3KFT NRLY POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS PRODUCED WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS
WITH MIST/DRIZZLE AND OCNL LIGHT RAIN COVERING THE SRN 2/3 (ISM TO
MCO TO NORTH OF TTS) ADDING TO THE MISERY ARE 10-20MPH NRLY
WINDS...MAKING THE CHILL THAT MUCH MORE BITING. IT`S BECOME
PAINFULLY APPARENT THAT SHAVING A COUPLE DEGS OFF OF MAX TEMPS WAS A
SMALL STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...THE KEY WORD BEING "SMALL".
ABOUT THE ONLY AREAS THAT ARE SEEING OR WILL SEE 60F TODAY ARE THOSE
THAT NEVER FELL BELOW 60F BEHIND THE FROPA THU MORNING OR OVERNIGHT
(I.E THE TREASURE COAST). OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE EITHER
HELD STEADY IN THE M50S-L60S OR HAVE ACTUALLY DROPPED A DEGREE OR
TWO SINCE THIS MORNING. 00Z MOS GUIDANCE WILL WIND UP BUSTING HIGH
BY A FULL 2-3 CATS.

OVERNIGHT...AS THE LARGE COLD HIGH TO THE NORTH OF FL BUILDS EWD...
BLYR WINDS WINDS WILL VEER TO NE BUT WILL BE SLOWER TO DO SO OVER
LAND AS NRLY DRAINAGE FLOW WILL HOLD FIRM OVER MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO NE WELL OFFSHORE
OVER THE ATLC AS 41010/SPGF1 ARE E OF THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS...
WHICH IS STILL APPARENT ON BOTH RADAR/VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY). THIS
TROUGH OR COASTAL FRONT WILL CREEP CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE THIS
EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH ONSHORE PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST...THEN SLOWLY EDGE WEST TOWARD THE INTERIOR THROUGH
SUNRISE. WE`LL LIKELY SEE TEMPS REMAIN NEARLY STEADY WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE THEY DID ALL MORNING AND AFTERNOON...
WHILE MINS OCCUR THIS EVENING ALONG COASTAL AREAS...BEFORE JUMPING
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT.

SAT...TROUGH WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH MILDER
MARINE AIR AND OCNL BREEZY EAST WINDS BEHIND THE BDRY OVERSPREADING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES (60 COAST/50
INLAND) AS LOW LEVEL MCONVG WILL BE ENHANCED OVER THE PENINSULA. AS
SUCH...WENT BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAXES BY 1-2F AREAWIDE.

SAT NIGHT...BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE COAST WITH
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING TIGHT. POPS IN SCATTERED/CHANCE CATEGORY
ALL AREAS...BUT COASTAL ZONES FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER VALUES WITH
ONSHORE MOVING ATLANTIC SHOWERS. MILD OVERNIGHT MINS RANGING FROM
MAINLY LOW/MID 60S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA AND UPPER 60S NEAR 70S TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...EASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PUSHING
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TO THE NORTH. PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS A
LITTLE OVER SATURDAY BUT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT THE
COAST. MOISTURE AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS HANGING AROUND...HAVE POPS AT
30/40% ALL AREAS FOR CONTINUED ONSHORE MOVING COASTAL SHOWERS. THE
12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PEAK SEAS AT 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE
EARLY SUNDAY SO ROUGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TOWARD THE SE AND RIDGE
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE GULF. WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS REACHING LOWER 80S INTERIOR AND ON THE COAST RANGING FROM MID
70S NORTHERN COAST AND UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 SOUTH. LINGERING MOISTURE
POOLED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AND HEATING MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL
RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL TO THE BAHAMAS. SE
FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS OVC005-009 WITH MVFR VSBYS IN ST AND -RADZ/BR
HAVE OVERSPREAD AREAS SOUTH OF A KISM-KMCO-KEVB LINE...AND THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE KEEPS IMC ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH 15Z SAT. WHILE MOS
SUGGEST IFR WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN 5 AERODROMES AFTER
00Z...STOPPED SHORT F THAT AND WENT PREVAILING BKN-OVC012-015 AFT
00Z. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING TRENDS.

&&

.MARINE...

OVERNIGHT/SUN...MADE MINOR TWEAK TO EXTEND SCA FOR WINDS THROUGH 4
AM FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA...BEFORE FULL SCA FOR WINDS/SEAS GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR SATURDAY. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE LOWERED PEAK WINDSPEEDS
BY AROUND 5KT...AND NOW KEEP THEM BELOW 25KT FOR THE EVENT...SO FOR
NOW NO NEED TO CONSIDER ANY SORT OF ADVISORY FOR MARGINAL GALE CONDS.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8FT LATE TONIGHT...AND 6-9FT ON SATURDAY.

SAT NIGHT-MON...12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SEA HEIGHTS
PEAKING OUT EARLY SUNDAY WITH UP TO 10 FEET NORTHERN OFFSHORE LEGS.
SLOW DECLINE IN WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY WITH FLOW VEERING TOWARD THE EAST
BUT SLOWER RESPONSE OF SEAS EXPECTED TO KEEP SCA CONDITIONS UP INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW TREND DOWNWARD IN SEAS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY
WITH 4-5 FEET BY LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  66  62  75 /  30  60  50  30
MCO  58  75  62  80 /  20  50  40  40
MLB  62  74  67  77 /  40  60  50  40
VRB  65  76  68  80 /  50  60  50  40
LEE  54  70  59  79 /  20  50  40  40
SFB  57  72  60  79 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  58  74  61  80 /  20  50  40  40
FPR  66  76  69  79 /  50  60  50  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM SUNDAY FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....GLITTO




000
FXUS62 KMFL 272040
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO 80
DEGREES AT TAMIAMI. THICK CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING...AND A WEAK SEA
BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. ELSEWHERE...A
DREARY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LAKE REGION
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS UPGLIDE
CONTINUES AND AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE LAKE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCING RAINFALL
CHANCES. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LESSER CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE REGION...SO IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S
AT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THE REGION WILL LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL
TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LONG PERIOD 2-3 FOOT
SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FEET
TONIGHT...7 FEET ON SATURDAY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND UP TO
8 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
OVER THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  68  80  73 /  60  40  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  68  80  73 /  30  30  40  20
MIAMI            78  70  83  73 /  20  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  62  81  67 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 272040
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO 80
DEGREES AT TAMIAMI. THICK CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING...AND A WEAK SEA
BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. ELSEWHERE...A
DREARY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LAKE REGION
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS UPGLIDE
CONTINUES AND AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE LAKE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCING RAINFALL
CHANCES. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LESSER CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE REGION...SO IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S
AT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THE REGION WILL LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL
TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LONG PERIOD 2-3 FOOT
SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FEET
TONIGHT...7 FEET ON SATURDAY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND UP TO
8 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
OVER THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  68  80  73 /  60  40  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  68  80  73 /  30  30  40  20
MIAMI            78  70  83  73 /  20  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  62  81  67 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG



000
FXUS62 KMFL 272040
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO 80
DEGREES AT TAMIAMI. THICK CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING...AND A WEAK SEA
BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. ELSEWHERE...A
DREARY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LAKE REGION
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS UPGLIDE
CONTINUES AND AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE LAKE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCING RAINFALL
CHANCES. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LESSER CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE REGION...SO IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S
AT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THE REGION WILL LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL
TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LONG PERIOD 2-3 FOOT
SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FEET
TONIGHT...7 FEET ON SATURDAY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND UP TO
8 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
OVER THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  68  80  73 /  60  40  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  68  80  73 /  30  30  40  20
MIAMI            78  70  83  73 /  20  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  62  81  67 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG



000
FXUS62 KMFL 272040
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LAKE REGION TO 80
DEGREES AT TAMIAMI. THICK CLOUD COVER EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION. THERE WAS A SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WITH SOME LOW/MID LEVEL DRYING...AND A WEAK SEA
BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED. SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SUGGESTED BY THE HRRR. ELSEWHERE...A
DREARY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE...AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE LAKE REGION
NORTHWARD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AS UPGLIDE
CONTINUES AND AN INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
STREAM AND MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
JET STREAK WILL APPROACH THE LAKE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ENHANCING RAINFALL
CHANCES. THE INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE GULF STREAM WILL MOVE
SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT AND INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LESSER CHANCES
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION
OF THE REGION...SO IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S
AT A FEW SPOTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST.

THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY...AND THE REGION WILL LOSE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

&&

.MARINE...
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WILL
TURN EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LONG PERIOD 2-3 FOOT
SWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WELL. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 FEET
TONIGHT...7 FEET ON SATURDAY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND UP TO
8 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAINLY EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
OVER THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  68  80  73 /  60  40  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  68  80  73 /  30  30  40  20
MIAMI            78  70  83  73 /  20  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  62  81  67 /  40  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KJAX 272010
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

..STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...

.NEAR TERM...REST OF TODAY...THE VEIL OF CIRRUS OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES WHILE N TO NE FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY OVER THE SE PARTS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
RISE WITH 50-55 DEG READINGS OVER MOST AREAS WITH 55-60 ALONG THE
SRN TIER OF ZONES. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY MOVING EWD. RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER SE COASTAL WATERS AND E OF A LINE FROM ST AUGUSTINE
TO PALATKA. FRESH N TO NE WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 28 MPH ARE
OCCURRING IN E ZONES AND GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT...SFC PRES WILL MOVE EWD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AREA WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ND THE BAHAMAS
AREA...NEAR AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EWD...THE
LOCAL PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CONTINUING THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREAS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE
STRONGER. FURTHER INLAND WELL WEST OF I-95...10 TO 15 MPH WINDS WITH
SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NE FL LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT WITH ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY SE ZONES IN THE EVENING...THEN SPREADING INLAND.
HIGHEST POPS ARE ADVERTISED AT 50 PERCENT FOR ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM OFF THE NE FL/SE GA
COAST WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SW FLOW OVER THE SHALLOW
FRONT WILL PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS ALONG WITH COASTAL LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF RAIN. BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SW
PRODUCING WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR 80
DEGREES TUE AND WED OVER INLAND AREAS WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST AS AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE
NORTH FLATTENS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN
WITH THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO BKN CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. STRONGER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCT MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR JAX...CRG...VQQ AND GNV AND POSSIBLY
SSI. MORE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LOWERING TO THE 1000-1500 FT LEVEL. AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND LATEST THINKING IS MAINLY AROUND THE GNV
TERMINAL...AS THE COASTAL TAF SITES MAY HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BELOW 1000-1500 FT AND SOME DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN ON A NNE WIND. WINDS EXPECTED NNE TO NE REST OF
TODAY NEAR 10-15G20KT AND CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT. STRONGER FLOW
EXPECTED SAT. LLWS LOOKS TOO MARGINAL AS LONG AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY...BUT 1500-2000 FT WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AFTER
06Z THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...NNE WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS PER LATEST ANALYSIS AND SEAS OF 4-
5 FT RECORDED AT 41112 AND 41008. CMAN SAUF1 10 METER WINDS MEASURED
AT 21G27 KT RECENTLY WITH JAX BEACH PIER 20G24KT. SCA WILL CONTINUE
FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH SUN AM WITH HIGHER WINDS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS N OF GENERALLY N OF MAYPORT...WITH GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE POSSIBLE. WINDS TURN AROUND TO E AND SE SUN THOUGH SEAS WILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL BOATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD...KEEPING
ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NORTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK REST OF TODAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTH-
NORTHEAST WHILE STRENGTHENING. HIGH RISK ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND
DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  55  45  64 /  10  30  20  30
SSI  45  52  48  61 /  20  40  40  30
JAX  46  57  51  69 /  30  60  60  30
SGJ  52  61  56  68 /  50  70  70  30
GNV  48  61  51  74 /  40  60  60  30
OCF  50  66  55  77 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ZIBURA/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 272010
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

..STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...

.NEAR TERM...REST OF TODAY...THE VEIL OF CIRRUS OVER THE REGION
CONTINUES WHILE N TO NE FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS MAINLY OVER THE SE PARTS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
RISE WITH 50-55 DEG READINGS OVER MOST AREAS WITH 55-60 ALONG THE
SRN TIER OF ZONES. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS
VALLEY MOVING EWD. RADAR SHOWS SOME PATCHY LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE
OVER THE OUTER SE COASTAL WATERS AND E OF A LINE FROM ST AUGUSTINE
TO PALATKA. FRESH N TO NE WINDS 15-20 MPH GUSTING TO 28 MPH ARE
OCCURRING IN E ZONES AND GENERALLY 10-15 MPH ELSEWHERE.

FOR TONIGHT...SFC PRES WILL MOVE EWD TO THE OHIO VALLEY AREA WHILE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ND THE BAHAMAS
AREA...NEAR AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EWD...THE
LOCAL PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN CONTINUING THE BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREAS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL BE
STRONGER. FURTHER INLAND WELL WEST OF I-95...10 TO 15 MPH WINDS WITH
SOME GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NE FL LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL HELP INCREASE LIFT WITH ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY SE ZONES IN THE EVENING...THEN SPREADING INLAND.
HIGHEST POPS ARE ADVERTISED AT 50 PERCENT FOR ST JOHNS AND FLAGLER
COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM...

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
WILL KEEP A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM OFF THE NE FL/SE GA
COAST WHICH WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST
WHERE A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. SW FLOW OVER THE SHALLOW
FRONT WILL PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS ALONG WITH COASTAL LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF RAIN. BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES WITH AN EMBEDDED IMPULSE IN FAST SW FLOW ALOFT.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
SW.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH
INTO THE SE EARLY NEXT WEEK. SE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SW
PRODUCING WARMER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR 80
DEGREES TUE AND WED OVER INLAND AREAS WITH COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE
COAST AS AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NW ON THURSDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TO THE
NORTH FLATTENS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN
WITH THE FRONT WILL PUSH SE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE RAIN MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO BKN CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS. STRONGER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCT MVFR CIGS AT TIMES FOR JAX...CRG...VQQ AND GNV AND POSSIBLY
SSI. MORE PREVAILING MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS LOWERING TO THE 1000-1500 FT LEVEL. AS A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF IFR CIGS DEVELOPING IN THE
06Z-12Z TIME FRAME AND LATEST THINKING IS MAINLY AROUND THE GNV
TERMINAL...AS THE COASTAL TAF SITES MAY HAVE ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT CIGS FROM LOWERING BELOW 1000-1500 FT AND SOME DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN ON A NNE WIND. WINDS EXPECTED NNE TO NE REST OF
TODAY NEAR 10-15G20KT AND CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT. STRONGER FLOW
EXPECTED SAT. LLWS LOOKS TOO MARGINAL AS LONG AS SFC WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY...BUT 1500-2000 FT WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO 30-40 KT AFTER
06Z THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SAT.

&&

.MARINE...NNE WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS PER LATEST ANALYSIS AND SEAS OF 4-
5 FT RECORDED AT 41112 AND 41008. CMAN SAUF1 10 METER WINDS MEASURED
AT 21G27 KT RECENTLY WITH JAX BEACH PIER 20G24KT. SCA WILL CONTINUE
FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH SUN AM WITH HIGHER WINDS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS N OF GENERALLY N OF MAYPORT...WITH GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE POSSIBLE. WINDS TURN AROUND TO E AND SE SUN THOUGH SEAS WILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL BOATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHWARD...KEEPING
ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NORTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK REST OF TODAY AS WINDS BECOME NORTH-
NORTHEAST WHILE STRENGTHENING. HIGH RISK ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND
DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  55  45  64 /  10  30  20  30
SSI  45  52  48  61 /  20  40  40  30
JAX  46  57  51  69 /  30  60  60  30
SGJ  52  61  56  68 /  50  70  70  30
GNV  48  61  51  74 /  40  60  60  30
OCF  50  66  55  77 /  40  50  40  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ZIBURA/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KTBW 272003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MEANDERING
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT (5-7MB) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
EXPECTED.

A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERRIDING THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
INCREASING UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM A
DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE GULF ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL ALL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN (POPS 20 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE) POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BLEND OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVORING BEST CHANCES LIKELY SETTING UP OVER
EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FROM
THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID
TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
MID AND UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. LOW-LEVEL UPGLIDE
REGIME LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WARM, HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT THE
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SEA FOG EVENT ACROSS THE
AREA AS WARM, HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN EXACTLY THE FOG IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL IS THERE NEVERTHELESS WITH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAYS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ECMWF SEEMS
SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH NOW THAN THE 00Z RUN ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL PUSH BUT THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE PERIOD LOOK TO COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT. AFTER 02Z PREVAILING MVFR WITH
POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH SOME -RA WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS. HAVE HANDLED -RA/SHRA CHANCES WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS
VISIBILITY IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING TOMORROW AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
DISPERSION INDICES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  74  64  80 /  20  30  30  20
FMY  60  80  67  84 /  30  40  20  20
GIF  56  74  63  80 /  30  40  40  30
SRQ  57  76  64  80 /  20  30  20  20
BKV  52  71  61  81 /  20  40  40  20
SPG  57  72  64  78 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTBW 272003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MEANDERING
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT (5-7MB) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
EXPECTED.

A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERRIDING THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
INCREASING UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM A
DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE GULF ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL ALL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN (POPS 20 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE) POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BLEND OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVORING BEST CHANCES LIKELY SETTING UP OVER
EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FROM
THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID
TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
MID AND UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. LOW-LEVEL UPGLIDE
REGIME LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WARM, HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT THE
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SEA FOG EVENT ACROSS THE
AREA AS WARM, HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN EXACTLY THE FOG IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL IS THERE NEVERTHELESS WITH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAYS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ECMWF SEEMS
SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH NOW THAN THE 00Z RUN ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL PUSH BUT THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE PERIOD LOOK TO COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT. AFTER 02Z PREVAILING MVFR WITH
POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH SOME -RA WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS. HAVE HANDLED -RA/SHRA CHANCES WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS
VISIBILITY IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING TOMORROW AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
DISPERSION INDICES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  74  64  80 /  20  30  30  20
FMY  60  80  67  84 /  30  40  20  20
GIF  56  74  63  80 /  30  40  40  30
SRQ  57  76  64  80 /  20  30  20  20
BKV  52  71  61  81 /  20  40  40  20
SPG  57  72  64  78 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 272003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MEANDERING
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT (5-7MB) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
EXPECTED.

A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERRIDING THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
INCREASING UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM A
DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE GULF ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL ALL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN (POPS 20 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE) POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BLEND OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVORING BEST CHANCES LIKELY SETTING UP OVER
EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FROM
THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID
TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
MID AND UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. LOW-LEVEL UPGLIDE
REGIME LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WARM, HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT THE
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SEA FOG EVENT ACROSS THE
AREA AS WARM, HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN EXACTLY THE FOG IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL IS THERE NEVERTHELESS WITH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAYS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ECMWF SEEMS
SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH NOW THAN THE 00Z RUN ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL PUSH BUT THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE PERIOD LOOK TO COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT. AFTER 02Z PREVAILING MVFR WITH
POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH SOME -RA WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS. HAVE HANDLED -RA/SHRA CHANCES WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS
VISIBILITY IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING TOMORROW AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
DISPERSION INDICES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  74  64  80 /  20  30  30  20
FMY  60  80  67  84 /  30  40  20  20
GIF  56  74  63  80 /  30  40  40  30
SRQ  57  76  64  80 /  20  30  20  20
BKV  52  71  61  81 /  20  40  40  20
SPG  57  72  64  78 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTBW 272003
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BUILD EAST TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH
AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS MEANDERING
SLOWLY NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT (5-7MB) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH A BREEZY NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WIND FLOW
EXPECTED.

A STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERRIDING THE
LOW-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
INCREASING UPGLIDE COMBINED WITH ADDED CONVERGENCE FROM A
DEVELOPING INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE GULF ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL ALL SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER RAIN (POPS 20 TO
40 PERCENT RANGE) POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BLEND OF
MODEL SOLUTIONS FAVORING BEST CHANCES LIKELY SETTING UP OVER
EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST IN THE VICINITY OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND LIFT FROM
THE COASTAL TROUGH AXIS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO NORMAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND MID
TO UPPER 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
MID AND UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S CENTRAL AND
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
THE PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
SOME 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. LOW-LEVEL UPGLIDE
REGIME LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD SO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS WARM, HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO DIMINISH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK BUT THE
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL SEA FOG EVENT ACROSS THE
AREA AS WARM, HUMID AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS. STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHEN EXACTLY THE FOG IS LIKELY TO
BEGIN HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL IS THERE NEVERTHELESS WITH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY LOOKING LIKE THE MOST FAVORABLE DAYS.

LATE IN THE PERIOD MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON TIMING AND SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
RETURN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. ECMWF SEEMS
SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH NOW THAN THE 00Z RUN ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT WILL PUSH BUT THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY. TEMPERATURES LATE IN
THE PERIOD LOOK TO COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS
BUT THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FROPA.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL
SITES THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT. AFTER 02Z PREVAILING MVFR WITH
POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG WITH SOME -RA WILL AFFECT
THE TERMINALS. HAVE HANDLED -RA/SHRA CHANCES WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS
VISIBILITY IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
AREAS OF SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING TOMORROW AS A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ELSEWHERE
INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AS NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW
WIND TO CHANNEL DOWN THE BAY. CHARLOTTE HARBOR LOOKS TO STAY IN
THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING 20 FOOT WINDS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED
DISPERSION INDICES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG
WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL KEEP HUMIDITY VALUES WELL
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  55  74  64  80 /  20  30  30  20
FMY  60  80  67  84 /  30  40  20  20
GIF  56  74  63  80 /  30  40  40  30
SRQ  57  76  64  80 /  20  30  20  20
BKV  52  71  61  81 /  20  40  40  20
SPG  57  72  64  78 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60
     NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KKEY 271959
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
200 PM STILL DETAILS A LARGELY CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS...WITH 75 TO 100 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 250 MB RIDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL A 1040 MB CENTER OF A LATE
WINTER ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES. LOCALLY...A
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT REMAINS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTHEAST OF
THE KEYS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...EXCEPT MIDDLE
AND UPPER CLOUDINESS HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
AND WESTERN STRAITS. FOR THAT REASON TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. C-MAN
STATIONS ALONG THE REEF REMAIN NORTHEAST  10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM SOMBRERO
KEY NORTHEAST...BUT NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY OUT TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

.SHORT TERM...WEAKLY CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN AT 500 WILL
BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC BY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS BUILD 500 MB HEIGHTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHERN GULF...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG 1040 MB ARCTIC
RIDGING NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RACE TO NEAR NEW JERSEY BY
SUNDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A 1035 MB HIGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. 1030 MB HIGH OVER GIORGIA BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
IS REINFORCED BY YET ANOTHER STRONGER 1035 MB PLUS HIGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WHICH ASSERTS CONTROL AND BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARDS TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN MORE MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SINCE MID
LEVELS WILL BE WARMING AND DRYING OUT...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
MECHANISM TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SO KEPT IN 20 PERCENT FOR
TONIGHT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT THEREAFTER BELIEVE IN LESSER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO WILL
MAINTAIN A 10 POP IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN BREEZY
CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWER NEAR OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES THRU ENTIRE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...AND EXPECT WINDS TO CLOCK MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE KEPT A SPLIT GIVEN THE SLOWER INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE
OF THE WINDS THANKS TO A DYING TROUGH TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST OF
THE KEYS. THEN SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL
WATERS BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE REQUIRED
ACROSS HAWK CHANNEL AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AS WELL. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BY WED AND WED NIGHT.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY
THROUGH THAT TIME AT KEY WEST. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS MAY
REDEVELOP MORE SUBSTANTIALLY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT BOTH
LOCATIONS AS NORTHERLY WINDS TIP MORE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AND
RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1989...THE
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 46 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 27 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  69  78  73  78 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  71  79  73  79 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271959
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
200 PM STILL DETAILS A LARGELY CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS...WITH 75 TO 100 KNOT
SOUTHWESTERLIES AT 250 MB RIDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL A 1040 MB CENTER OF A LATE
WINTER ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED NEAR THE QUAD CITIES. LOCALLY...A
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT REMAINS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTHEAST OF
THE KEYS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES HAVE BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...EXCEPT MIDDLE
AND UPPER CLOUDINESS HAS REMAINED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
AND WESTERN STRAITS. FOR THAT REASON TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S. C-MAN
STATIONS ALONG THE REEF REMAIN NORTHEAST  10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM SOMBRERO
KEY NORTHEAST...BUT NEAR 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY OUT TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

.SHORT TERM...WEAKLY CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN AT 500 WILL
BECOME WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC BY SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MODELS BUILD 500 MB HEIGHTS NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
SOUTHERN GULF...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG 1040 MB ARCTIC
RIDGING NOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL RACE TO NEAR NEW JERSEY BY
SUNDAY...THEN MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A 1035 MB HIGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. 1030 MB HIGH OVER GIORGIA BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
IS REINFORCED BY YET ANOTHER STRONGER 1035 MB PLUS HIGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WHICH ASSERTS CONTROL AND BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARDS TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST BY WEDNESDAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN MORE MOIST IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SINCE MID
LEVELS WILL BE WARMING AND DRYING OUT...BUT WITH LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY
MECHANISM TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SO KEPT IN 20 PERCENT FOR
TONIGHT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...BUT THEREAFTER BELIEVE IN LESSER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND STRONGER LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE SO WILL
MAINTAIN A 10 POP IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN BREEZY
CONDITIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWER NEAR OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES THRU ENTIRE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS...AND EXPECT WINDS TO CLOCK MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND DECREASE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE KEPT A SPLIT GIVEN THE SLOWER INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE
OF THE WINDS THANKS TO A DYING TROUGH TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST OF
THE KEYS. THEN SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL
WATERS BY TOMORROW MORNING...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SUNDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. ITS POSSIBLE THAT SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE REQUIRED
ACROSS HAWK CHANNEL AND THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AS WELL. WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN SLIGHTLY BY WED AND WED NIGHT.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY
THROUGH THAT TIME AT KEY WEST. MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CEILINGS MAY
REDEVELOP MORE SUBSTANTIALLY LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AT BOTH
LOCATIONS AS NORTHERLY WINDS TIP MORE TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST AND
RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1989...THE
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 46 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 27 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  69  78  73  78 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  71  79  73  79 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 271805
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
DUE TO OVERRUNNING WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THEN INTO
PARTS OF COLLIER...HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE 12Z MIAMI
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED THE VERY SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...ABOUT 1500 FT...AND THEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY...THE
OVERRUNNING WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
MOVE THE HIGHER POPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
BY THE LAKE AND THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
A STABLE STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 010-020 FT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. /JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  81  73  81 /  40  50  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  80  72  80 /  30  50  30  30
MIAMI            69  82  71  82 /  20  40  30  20
NAPLES           62  82  67  85 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271805
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
DUE TO OVERRUNNING WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THEN INTO
PARTS OF COLLIER...HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE 12Z MIAMI
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED THE VERY SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...ABOUT 1500 FT...AND THEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY...THE
OVERRUNNING WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
MOVE THE HIGHER POPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
BY THE LAKE AND THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
A STABLE STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 010-020 FT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. /JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  81  73  81 /  40  50  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  80  72  80 /  30  50  30  30
MIAMI            69  82  71  82 /  20  40  30  20
NAPLES           62  82  67  85 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271805
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
DUE TO OVERRUNNING WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THEN INTO
PARTS OF COLLIER...HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE 12Z MIAMI
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED THE VERY SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...ABOUT 1500 FT...AND THEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY...THE
OVERRUNNING WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
MOVE THE HIGHER POPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
BY THE LAKE AND THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
A STABLE STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 010-020 FT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. /JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  81  73  81 /  40  50  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  80  72  80 /  30  50  30  30
MIAMI            69  82  71  82 /  20  40  30  20
NAPLES           62  82  67  85 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271805
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA,
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CIGS, A FEW
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NE FLOW INCREASES. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
DUE TO OVERRUNNING WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THEN INTO
PARTS OF COLLIER...HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE 12Z MIAMI
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED THE VERY SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...ABOUT 1500 FT...AND THEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY...THE
OVERRUNNING WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
MOVE THE HIGHER POPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
BY THE LAKE AND THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
A STABLE STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 010-020 FT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. /JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  81  73  81 /  40  50  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  80  72  80 /  30  50  30  30
MIAMI            69  82  71  82 /  20  40  30  20
NAPLES           62  82  67  85 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271534
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...AS ADVERTISED BY YESTERDAY`S GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE AN AREA OF UPGLIDE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA...NORTH OF THE DOUBLE-BARRELED COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

LOCAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWS A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN HAS
FORMED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEE...AND EXTENDS FROM WELL
OFFSHORE THE SW FL COAST TO NAPLES THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE AND
STUART/PSL... BEFORE EXTENDING ENE INTO THE ATLC. A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE TO THE NORTH OF THAT...UP TO AND JUST
OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY. A WEAK THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH
FORMED OVER THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT AND APPEARS
TO BE QSTNRY ATTM.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...DREARY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY (ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST) AREAWIDE WITH OVC SKIES AND A CHILLY NORTH TO NNE WIND.
TEMPS WON`T GET OUT OF THE 60S...AND L60S AT THAT OVER A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE CWA. MADE SOME CHANGES TO LOWER MAX TEMPS...AND TO BUMP POPS
UP OVER THE EASTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE ADDING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR OVC-BKN018-025 WITH LCL IFR AROUND
2SM/OVC008 IN PRECIP/MIST NEAR KSUA. MADE SOME MORNING AMDS TO SHOW
THIS AREA SPREADING NORTH TWD KFPR-KVRB AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...INTERESTING ANTECEDENT MARINE WIND EVENT AS LOCALIZED
INCREASE IN WINDS ONGOING ALONG/WEST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THIS
CAN BE SEEN IN THE COASTAL METAR...MESONET AND CMAN OBS...WHICH HAVE
ALL BEEN RUNNING NEAR 20KT. ALTHOUGH OVERALL WIND CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL (17-21KT)...SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST THE CURRENT SCA FOR
WINDS AS SECONDARY WIND SURGE WILL BE FOLLOWING TONIGHT.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WEATHER...GLITTO

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
H9 WINDS PROGD WILL BE A SOLID 25 KNOTS ONSHORE WITH WITH MID LVL
WSW FLOW PRODUCING MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVER THE EXPANSIVE LOW LVL
STRATOCU DECK THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS E CENTRAL FL. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ATLANTIC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A
SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY SKIRT NRN SECTIONS WITH SOME
MID LVL LIFT. WILL HAVE 40-50 POPS NORTH AND 60 PCT SOUTH. ROUGH AND
POUNDING SURF IS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. THE
BEACHES WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S LAKE COUNTY TO LOWER 70S FOR THE TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST ON
SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER ABOUT 10% BUT STILL BE IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 70S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 10 FT AT BUOY
41009 ON SUNDAY WITH ROUGH SURF CONTINUING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR
A SECOND DAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME BEACH EROSION AT THE BEACHES.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FOR ANYONE ENTERING THE
POUNDING SURF.

MONDAY...MODELS SHOW LOW LVL FLOW BEGINNING TO VEER AS MID LVL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FL KEYS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND AROUND 80/LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.

TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL
TO THE BAHAMAS. SE FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TERMINALS...INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS THE DAY GOES
ON...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. OVERRUNNING WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERAL CLOUDS LAYERS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWERING CIGS TO IFR TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED
NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH
WILL INCREASE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS 10 - 15 KNOTS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 15 - 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER TONIGHT. HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS INITIALLY FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET BEGINNING AT 1800Z (100 PM LOCAL)...FURTHER SOUTH THE
ADVISORY BEGINS AT 2300Z (600 PM LOCAL). SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SAT-SUN...EAST WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 10-11 FT OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE MONDAY BUT HIGHER
SEAS WILL STILL LINGER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER TO SE/S INTO MID
WEEK AND SLACKEN SOME WITH SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  57  70  65 /  20  30  50  40
MCO  65  57  77  65 /  20  20  40  40
MLB  67  64  75  71 /  30  30  50  40
VRB  69  67  77  71 /  30  30  60  50
LEE  64  54  75  60 /  10  20  50  40
SFB  64  56  73  62 /  20  20  50  40
ORL  64  57  75  64 /  20  20  40  40
FPR  70  67  77  71 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMLB 271534
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...AS ADVERTISED BY YESTERDAY`S GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE AN AREA OF UPGLIDE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA...NORTH OF THE DOUBLE-BARRELED COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

LOCAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWS A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN HAS
FORMED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEE...AND EXTENDS FROM WELL
OFFSHORE THE SW FL COAST TO NAPLES THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE AND
STUART/PSL... BEFORE EXTENDING ENE INTO THE ATLC. A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE TO THE NORTH OF THAT...UP TO AND JUST
OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY. A WEAK THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH
FORMED OVER THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT AND APPEARS
TO BE QSTNRY ATTM.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...DREARY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY (ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST) AREAWIDE WITH OVC SKIES AND A CHILLY NORTH TO NNE WIND.
TEMPS WON`T GET OUT OF THE 60S...AND L60S AT THAT OVER A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE CWA. MADE SOME CHANGES TO LOWER MAX TEMPS...AND TO BUMP POPS
UP OVER THE EASTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE ADDING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR OVC-BKN018-025 WITH LCL IFR AROUND
2SM/OVC008 IN PRECIP/MIST NEAR KSUA. MADE SOME MORNING AMDS TO SHOW
THIS AREA SPREADING NORTH TWD KFPR-KVRB AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...INTERESTING ANTECEDENT MARINE WIND EVENT AS LOCALIZED
INCREASE IN WINDS ONGOING ALONG/WEST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THIS
CAN BE SEEN IN THE COASTAL METAR...MESONET AND CMAN OBS...WHICH HAVE
ALL BEEN RUNNING NEAR 20KT. ALTHOUGH OVERALL WIND CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL (17-21KT)...SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST THE CURRENT SCA FOR
WINDS AS SECONDARY WIND SURGE WILL BE FOLLOWING TONIGHT.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WEATHER...GLITTO

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
H9 WINDS PROGD WILL BE A SOLID 25 KNOTS ONSHORE WITH WITH MID LVL
WSW FLOW PRODUCING MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVER THE EXPANSIVE LOW LVL
STRATOCU DECK THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS E CENTRAL FL. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ATLANTIC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A
SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY SKIRT NRN SECTIONS WITH SOME
MID LVL LIFT. WILL HAVE 40-50 POPS NORTH AND 60 PCT SOUTH. ROUGH AND
POUNDING SURF IS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. THE
BEACHES WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S LAKE COUNTY TO LOWER 70S FOR THE TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST ON
SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER ABOUT 10% BUT STILL BE IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 70S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 10 FT AT BUOY
41009 ON SUNDAY WITH ROUGH SURF CONTINUING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR
A SECOND DAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME BEACH EROSION AT THE BEACHES.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FOR ANYONE ENTERING THE
POUNDING SURF.

MONDAY...MODELS SHOW LOW LVL FLOW BEGINNING TO VEER AS MID LVL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FL KEYS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND AROUND 80/LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.

TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL
TO THE BAHAMAS. SE FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TERMINALS...INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS THE DAY GOES
ON...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. OVERRUNNING WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERAL CLOUDS LAYERS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWERING CIGS TO IFR TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED
NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH
WILL INCREASE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS 10 - 15 KNOTS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 15 - 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER TONIGHT. HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS INITIALLY FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET BEGINNING AT 1800Z (100 PM LOCAL)...FURTHER SOUTH THE
ADVISORY BEGINS AT 2300Z (600 PM LOCAL). SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SAT-SUN...EAST WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 10-11 FT OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE MONDAY BUT HIGHER
SEAS WILL STILL LINGER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER TO SE/S INTO MID
WEEK AND SLACKEN SOME WITH SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  57  70  65 /  20  30  50  40
MCO  65  57  77  65 /  20  20  40  40
MLB  67  64  75  71 /  30  30  50  40
VRB  69  67  77  71 /  30  30  60  50
LEE  64  54  75  60 /  10  20  50  40
SFB  64  56  73  62 /  20  20  50  40
ORL  64  57  75  64 /  20  20  40  40
FPR  70  67  77  71 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271534
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...AS ADVERTISED BY YESTERDAY`S GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL
GUIDANCE AN AREA OF UPGLIDE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA...NORTH OF THE DOUBLE-BARRELED COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED
THROUGH ON THURSDAY.

LOCAL 88D MOSAIC SHOWS A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT-MDT RAIN HAS
FORMED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEE...AND EXTENDS FROM WELL
OFFSHORE THE SW FL COAST TO NAPLES THE SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE AND
STUART/PSL... BEFORE EXTENDING ENE INTO THE ATLC. A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF SPRINKLES AND DRIZZLE TO THE NORTH OF THAT...UP TO AND JUST
OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY. A WEAK THERMALLY INDUCED INVERTED TROUGH
FORMED OVER THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT AND APPEARS
TO BE QSTNRY ATTM.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...DREARY AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY (ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST) AREAWIDE WITH OVC SKIES AND A CHILLY NORTH TO NNE WIND.
TEMPS WON`T GET OUT OF THE 60S...AND L60S AT THAT OVER A GOOD CHUNK
OF THE CWA. MADE SOME CHANGES TO LOWER MAX TEMPS...AND TO BUMP POPS
UP OVER THE EASTERN AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE ADDING
AREAS OF DRIZZLE.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR OVC-BKN018-025 WITH LCL IFR AROUND
2SM/OVC008 IN PRECIP/MIST NEAR KSUA. MADE SOME MORNING AMDS TO SHOW
THIS AREA SPREADING NORTH TWD KFPR-KVRB AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...INTERESTING ANTECEDENT MARINE WIND EVENT AS LOCALIZED
INCREASE IN WINDS ONGOING ALONG/WEST OF THE INVERTED TROUGH. THIS
CAN BE SEEN IN THE COASTAL METAR...MESONET AND CMAN OBS...WHICH HAVE
ALL BEEN RUNNING NEAR 20KT. ALTHOUGH OVERALL WIND CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL (17-21KT)...SEE NO REASON TO ADJUST THE CURRENT SCA FOR
WINDS AS SECONDARY WIND SURGE WILL BE FOLLOWING TONIGHT.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WEATHER...GLITTO

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
H9 WINDS PROGD WILL BE A SOLID 25 KNOTS ONSHORE WITH WITH MID LVL
WSW FLOW PRODUCING MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVER THE EXPANSIVE LOW LVL
STRATOCU DECK THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS E CENTRAL FL. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ATLANTIC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A
SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY SKIRT NRN SECTIONS WITH SOME
MID LVL LIFT. WILL HAVE 40-50 POPS NORTH AND 60 PCT SOUTH. ROUGH AND
POUNDING SURF IS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. THE
BEACHES WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S LAKE COUNTY TO LOWER 70S FOR THE TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST ON
SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER ABOUT 10% BUT STILL BE IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 70S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 10 FT AT BUOY
41009 ON SUNDAY WITH ROUGH SURF CONTINUING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR
A SECOND DAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME BEACH EROSION AT THE BEACHES.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FOR ANYONE ENTERING THE
POUNDING SURF.

MONDAY...MODELS SHOW LOW LVL FLOW BEGINNING TO VEER AS MID LVL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FL KEYS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND AROUND 80/LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.

TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL
TO THE BAHAMAS. SE FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TERMINALS...INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS THE DAY GOES
ON...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. OVERRUNNING WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERAL CLOUDS LAYERS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWERING CIGS TO IFR TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED
NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH
WILL INCREASE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS 10 - 15 KNOTS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 15 - 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER TONIGHT. HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS INITIALLY FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET BEGINNING AT 1800Z (100 PM LOCAL)...FURTHER SOUTH THE
ADVISORY BEGINS AT 2300Z (600 PM LOCAL). SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SAT-SUN...EAST WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 10-11 FT OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE MONDAY BUT HIGHER
SEAS WILL STILL LINGER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER TO SE/S INTO MID
WEEK AND SLACKEN SOME WITH SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  57  70  65 /  20  30  50  40
MCO  65  57  77  65 /  20  20  40  40
MLB  67  64  75  71 /  30  30  50  40
VRB  69  67  77  71 /  30  30  60  50
LEE  64  54  75  60 /  10  20  50  40
SFB  64  56  73  62 /  20  20  50  40
ORL  64  57  75  64 /  20  20  40  40
FPR  70  67  77  71 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KJAX 271506
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1041 MB LOCATED NW OF THE AREA
WITH N TO NE FLOW INCREASING. SWLY FLOW IS PRODUCING A VIEL OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A 135-150 KT
JET ACROSS AL AND GA AND OFF THE E COAST NEAR SE VA.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE SE PARTS...A BIT SLOW TO RISE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. BASED ON THIS AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT...MAINLY IN THE ERN PORTIONS WHERE THE NNE
FLOW IS STRONGER AND WHERE INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000
FT EXPECTED. BREEZY WINDS OVER NE FL COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE SE MARINE WATERS AND POSSIBLY IN FLAGLER AND
ST JOHNS COUNTY LATE AFTN. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
TONIGHT OVER ERN ZONES AS LIFT INCREASES AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF 2500-3000 FT EXPECTED TODAY
FOR JAX...CRG AND VQQ...WITH SSI AND GNV PREVAILING AT VFR FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL THE DAY. MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TERMINALS 00Z TO 06Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT SSI AND CRG.
THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL PERSIST AT SSI AND CRG TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOWARDS
SUNSET...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FT TOWARDS 06Z
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT SAUF1 ARE APPROACHING SCA CONDS AT THE 10 METER
LEVEL AND BASED ON OTHER OBS AND GUIDANCE WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES
EARLIER START TIME FOR SCA. SEAS ARE ALSO TWEAKED UP A BIT USING
NWPS WAVE GUIDANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR TODAY AS SURF INCREASES WITH A
STRONG N TO S LONGSHORE CURRENT DEVELOPING. A HIGH RISK LOOKS
PROBABLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  39  50  42 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  52  44  50  47 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  55  45  56  49 /  10  30  50  40
SGJ  55  52  59  57 /  10  50  70  60
GNV  60  47  62  55 /  10  40  50  50
OCF  62  50  66  57 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ZIBURA/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KJAX 271506
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1041 MB LOCATED NW OF THE AREA
WITH N TO NE FLOW INCREASING. SWLY FLOW IS PRODUCING A VIEL OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A 135-150 KT
JET ACROSS AL AND GA AND OFF THE E COAST NEAR SE VA.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE SE PARTS...A BIT SLOW TO RISE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. BASED ON THIS AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT...MAINLY IN THE ERN PORTIONS WHERE THE NNE
FLOW IS STRONGER AND WHERE INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000
FT EXPECTED. BREEZY WINDS OVER NE FL COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE SE MARINE WATERS AND POSSIBLY IN FLAGLER AND
ST JOHNS COUNTY LATE AFTN. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
TONIGHT OVER ERN ZONES AS LIFT INCREASES AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF 2500-3000 FT EXPECTED TODAY
FOR JAX...CRG AND VQQ...WITH SSI AND GNV PREVAILING AT VFR FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL THE DAY. MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TERMINALS 00Z TO 06Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT SSI AND CRG.
THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL PERSIST AT SSI AND CRG TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOWARDS
SUNSET...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FT TOWARDS 06Z
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT SAUF1 ARE APPROACHING SCA CONDS AT THE 10 METER
LEVEL AND BASED ON OTHER OBS AND GUIDANCE WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES
EARLIER START TIME FOR SCA. SEAS ARE ALSO TWEAKED UP A BIT USING
NWPS WAVE GUIDANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR TODAY AS SURF INCREASES WITH A
STRONG N TO S LONGSHORE CURRENT DEVELOPING. A HIGH RISK LOOKS
PROBABLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  39  50  42 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  52  44  50  47 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  55  45  56  49 /  10  30  50  40
SGJ  55  52  59  57 /  10  50  70  60
GNV  60  47  62  55 /  10  40  50  50
OCF  62  50  66  57 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ZIBURA/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KJAX 271506
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1041 MB LOCATED NW OF THE AREA
WITH N TO NE FLOW INCREASING. SWLY FLOW IS PRODUCING A VIEL OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A 135-150 KT
JET ACROSS AL AND GA AND OFF THE E COAST NEAR SE VA.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE SE PARTS...A BIT SLOW TO RISE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. BASED ON THIS AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT...MAINLY IN THE ERN PORTIONS WHERE THE NNE
FLOW IS STRONGER AND WHERE INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000
FT EXPECTED. BREEZY WINDS OVER NE FL COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE SE MARINE WATERS AND POSSIBLY IN FLAGLER AND
ST JOHNS COUNTY LATE AFTN. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
TONIGHT OVER ERN ZONES AS LIFT INCREASES AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF 2500-3000 FT EXPECTED TODAY
FOR JAX...CRG AND VQQ...WITH SSI AND GNV PREVAILING AT VFR FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL THE DAY. MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TERMINALS 00Z TO 06Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT SSI AND CRG.
THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL PERSIST AT SSI AND CRG TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOWARDS
SUNSET...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FT TOWARDS 06Z
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT SAUF1 ARE APPROACHING SCA CONDS AT THE 10 METER
LEVEL AND BASED ON OTHER OBS AND GUIDANCE WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES
EARLIER START TIME FOR SCA. SEAS ARE ALSO TWEAKED UP A BIT USING
NWPS WAVE GUIDANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR TODAY AS SURF INCREASES WITH A
STRONG N TO S LONGSHORE CURRENT DEVELOPING. A HIGH RISK LOOKS
PROBABLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  39  50  42 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  52  44  50  47 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  55  45  56  49 /  10  30  50  40
SGJ  55  52  59  57 /  10  50  70  60
GNV  60  47  62  55 /  10  40  50  50
OCF  62  50  66  57 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ZIBURA/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KJAX 271506
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...STRONG HIGH PRES AROUND 1041 MB LOCATED NW OF THE AREA
WITH N TO NE FLOW INCREASING. SWLY FLOW IS PRODUCING A VIEL OF MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH A 135-150 KT
JET ACROSS AL AND GA AND OFF THE E COAST NEAR SE VA.

CURRENT TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE SE PARTS...A BIT SLOW TO RISE GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS. BASED ON THIS AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE
TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT...MAINLY IN THE ERN PORTIONS WHERE THE NNE
FLOW IS STRONGER AND WHERE INCREASING STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 3000
FT EXPECTED. BREEZY WINDS OVER NE FL COASTAL AREAS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE SE MARINE WATERS AND POSSIBLY IN FLAGLER AND
ST JOHNS COUNTY LATE AFTN. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
TONIGHT OVER ERN ZONES AS LIFT INCREASES AS A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF 2500-3000 FT EXPECTED TODAY
FOR JAX...CRG AND VQQ...WITH SSI AND GNV PREVAILING AT VFR FOR
MOST IF NOT ALL THE DAY. MVFR CIGS OVERSPREADS THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TERMINALS 00Z TO 06Z. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15
KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT SSI AND CRG.
THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL PERSIST AT SSI AND CRG TONIGHT. NORTHEAST
WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL STEADILY INCREASE TOWARDS
SUNSET...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS AT 1000 FT TOWARDS 06Z
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AT SAUF1 ARE APPROACHING SCA CONDS AT THE 10 METER
LEVEL AND BASED ON OTHER OBS AND GUIDANCE WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES
EARLIER START TIME FOR SCA. SEAS ARE ALSO TWEAKED UP A BIT USING
NWPS WAVE GUIDANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK FOR TODAY AS SURF INCREASES WITH A
STRONG N TO S LONGSHORE CURRENT DEVELOPING. A HIGH RISK LOOKS
PROBABLE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  39  50  42 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  52  44  50  47 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  55  45  56  49 /  10  30  50  40
SGJ  55  52  59  57 /  10  50  70  60
GNV  60  47  62  55 /  10  40  50  50
OCF  62  50  66  57 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA
     BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH
     TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ZIBURA/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KTAE 271450
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the
northwest and near 60 across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.


.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.


.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   57  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        56  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        57  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      58  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    62  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  58  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






000
FXUS62 KTAE 271450
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the
northwest and near 60 across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.


.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.


.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   57  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        56  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        57  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      58  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    62  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  58  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






000
FXUS62 KTAE 271450
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the
northwest and near 60 across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.


.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.


.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   57  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        56  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        57  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      58  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    62  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  58  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON







000
FXUS62 KTAE 271450
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the
northwest and near 60 across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.


.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.


.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   57  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        56  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        57  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      58  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    62  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  58  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON







000
FXUS62 KKEY 271447
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM DETAILS A LARGELY CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS...WITH 75 TO 100 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES
AT 250 MB RIDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.
THERE ARE SOME MIDDLE LEVEL IMPULSES...WEAK PVA AT 500 MB...WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL A 1040 MB CENTER OF A LATE
WINTER ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. LOCALLY...A
SURFACE FRONT HAS COME TO A HALT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTHEAST OF
THE KEYS. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED THE LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERE WAS SOMEWHAT MOIST WITH PWAT AT 1.37 INCHES AND THE
SURFACE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW OVER THE KEYS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLIES FROM THE SURFACE TO TO ONLY ABOUT 975
MB...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND FRESHENING FROM 2500
FEET TO 600 MB.

.CURRENTLY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS ALL OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
ADJOINING WATERS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WESTWARD MOVING
CLOUDINESS NOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER KEYS...EXCEPT SKIES ARE STILL
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS
OFF OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS SOME LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE OUTERMOST OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND AROUND TORTUGAS
NATIONAL PARK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.FORECASTS...FOR TONIGHT AND THIS EVENING...THE CENTER OF 1040 MB
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BLEED
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAYS END. LOCALLY THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
KEYS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER KEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
BEYOND THE TORTUGAS...BUT THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS ARE CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE FRONT...SO WINDS WILL TAKE TIME TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BAY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF OF THE UPPER KEYS. THIS IS
ALREADY INDICATED IN THE GRIDS. ALSO BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOISTENING
IN THE SURFACE TO 500 MB OVER THE KEYS THRU THE DAY IN AN ANAFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE KEYS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A
LOWER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...HAWK
CHANNEL FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH HALFMOON
SHOAL...AND THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL
WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MARINE DISTRICT...AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS NORTHWEST
TO NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING. VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH
LOCATIONS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS AT
MARATHON...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT KEY WEST WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1878...2.90
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
RAINFALL RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 27 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE......04
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR.....CHESSER


VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 271447
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM DETAILS A LARGELY CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS...WITH 75 TO 100 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES
AT 250 MB RIDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.
THERE ARE SOME MIDDLE LEVEL IMPULSES...WEAK PVA AT 500 MB...WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL A 1040 MB CENTER OF A LATE
WINTER ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. LOCALLY...A
SURFACE FRONT HAS COME TO A HALT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTHEAST OF
THE KEYS. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED THE LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERE WAS SOMEWHAT MOIST WITH PWAT AT 1.37 INCHES AND THE
SURFACE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW OVER THE KEYS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLIES FROM THE SURFACE TO TO ONLY ABOUT 975
MB...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND FRESHENING FROM 2500
FEET TO 600 MB.

.CURRENTLY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS ALL OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
ADJOINING WATERS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WESTWARD MOVING
CLOUDINESS NOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER KEYS...EXCEPT SKIES ARE STILL
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS
OFF OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS SOME LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE OUTERMOST OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND AROUND TORTUGAS
NATIONAL PARK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.FORECASTS...FOR TONIGHT AND THIS EVENING...THE CENTER OF 1040 MB
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BLEED
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAYS END. LOCALLY THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
KEYS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER KEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
BEYOND THE TORTUGAS...BUT THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS ARE CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE FRONT...SO WINDS WILL TAKE TIME TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BAY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF OF THE UPPER KEYS. THIS IS
ALREADY INDICATED IN THE GRIDS. ALSO BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOISTENING
IN THE SURFACE TO 500 MB OVER THE KEYS THRU THE DAY IN AN ANAFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE KEYS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A
LOWER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...HAWK
CHANNEL FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH HALFMOON
SHOAL...AND THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL
WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MARINE DISTRICT...AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS NORTHWEST
TO NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING. VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH
LOCATIONS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS AT
MARATHON...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT KEY WEST WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1878...2.90
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
RAINFALL RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 27 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE......04
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR.....CHESSER


VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 271447
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM DETAILS A LARGELY CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS...WITH 75 TO 100 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES
AT 250 MB RIDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.
THERE ARE SOME MIDDLE LEVEL IMPULSES...WEAK PVA AT 500 MB...WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL A 1040 MB CENTER OF A LATE
WINTER ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. LOCALLY...A
SURFACE FRONT HAS COME TO A HALT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTHEAST OF
THE KEYS. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED THE LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERE WAS SOMEWHAT MOIST WITH PWAT AT 1.37 INCHES AND THE
SURFACE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW OVER THE KEYS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLIES FROM THE SURFACE TO TO ONLY ABOUT 975
MB...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND FRESHENING FROM 2500
FEET TO 600 MB.

.CURRENTLY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS ALL OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
ADJOINING WATERS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WESTWARD MOVING
CLOUDINESS NOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER KEYS...EXCEPT SKIES ARE STILL
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS
OFF OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS SOME LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE OUTERMOST OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND AROUND TORTUGAS
NATIONAL PARK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.FORECASTS...FOR TONIGHT AND THIS EVENING...THE CENTER OF 1040 MB
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BLEED
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAYS END. LOCALLY THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
KEYS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER KEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
BEYOND THE TORTUGAS...BUT THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS ARE CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE FRONT...SO WINDS WILL TAKE TIME TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BAY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF OF THE UPPER KEYS. THIS IS
ALREADY INDICATED IN THE GRIDS. ALSO BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOISTENING
IN THE SURFACE TO 500 MB OVER THE KEYS THRU THE DAY IN AN ANAFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE KEYS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A
LOWER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...HAWK
CHANNEL FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH HALFMOON
SHOAL...AND THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL
WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MARINE DISTRICT...AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS NORTHWEST
TO NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING. VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH
LOCATIONS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS AT
MARATHON...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT KEY WEST WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1878...2.90
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
RAINFALL RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 27 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE......04
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR.....CHESSER


VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 271447
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
900 AM DETAILS A LARGELY CYCLONIC MID AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CONUS...WITH 75 TO 100 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES
AT 250 MB RIDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.
THERE ARE SOME MIDDLE LEVEL IMPULSES...WEAK PVA AT 500 MB...WITHIN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS DETAIL A 1040 MB CENTER OF A LATE
WINTER ARCTIC AIRMASS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI. LOCALLY...A
SURFACE FRONT HAS COME TO A HALT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTHEAST OF
THE KEYS. THE 12Z MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED THE LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERE WAS SOMEWHAT MOIST WITH PWAT AT 1.37 INCHES AND THE
SURFACE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW OVER THE KEYS WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLIES FROM THE SURFACE TO TO ONLY ABOUT 975
MB...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND FRESHENING FROM 2500
FEET TO 600 MB.

.CURRENTLY...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS ALL OF THE
ISLANDS THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND
ADJOINING WATERS WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE WESTWARD MOVING
CLOUDINESS NOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER KEYS...EXCEPT SKIES ARE STILL
MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS
OFF OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS SOME LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS THE OUTERMOST OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND AROUND TORTUGAS
NATIONAL PARK. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE AROUND 70 DEGREES
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.FORECASTS...FOR TONIGHT AND THIS EVENING...THE CENTER OF 1040 MB
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO BLEED
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAYS END. LOCALLY THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
KEYS...CLOSEST TO THE UPPER KEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE OUT
BEYOND THE TORTUGAS...BUT THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS ARE CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE FRONT...SO WINDS WILL TAKE TIME TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA BAY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF OF THE UPPER KEYS. THIS IS
ALREADY INDICATED IN THE GRIDS. ALSO BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MOISTENING
IN THE SURFACE TO 500 MB OVER THE KEYS THRU THE DAY IN AN ANAFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE KEYS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A
LOWER CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY ACROSS
THE KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...HAWK
CHANNEL FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH HALFMOON
SHOAL...AND THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY. SMALL CRAFT WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS ALL
WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MARINE DISTRICT...AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS NORTHWEST
TO NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING. VFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON AT BOTH
LOCATIONS. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE AT OR AROUND 10 KNOTS AT
MARATHON...AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT KEY WEST WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1878...2.90
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING
RAINFALL RECORD FOR FEBRUARY 27 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/GRIDS............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE......04
DATA ACQUISITION/UPPER AIR.....CHESSER


VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 271425
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
925 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SOON BECOME
STATIONARY BY AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE NORTH STRONG (1041MB) AN
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BUILD EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT (5-6MB) BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

REVIEW OF 12Z RAOB DATA SHOWS A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERRIDING THE LOW-LEVEL (SURFACE-925MB) NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION WEAK UPGLIDE IS
SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AS THE DAY CONTINUES MODELS SHOW THE UPGLIDE
STRENGTHENING AND WORKING NORTHWARD SOME...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WINTER HAVEN TO SARASOTA
FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND DAMP DAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...MID 60S CENTRAL
ZONES...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT BEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS...SO A
MORNING UPDATE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS GOOD OVERRUNNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 17Z AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW WITH EVENING
SURGES. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
DRIFT SOUTH AND SET UP ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR TAMPA
BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED
IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING





000
FXUS62 KTBW 271425
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
925 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY IS NOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SOON BECOME
STATIONARY BY AFTERNOON. FURTHER TO THE NORTH STRONG (1041MB) AN
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
BUILD EAST OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT (5-6MB) BETWEEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.

REVIEW OF 12Z RAOB DATA SHOWS A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERRIDING THE LOW-LEVEL (SURFACE-925MB) NORTHEAST FLOW WHICH IS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. IN ADDITION WEAK UPGLIDE IS
SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS FROM NAPLES NORTHEAST TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AS THE DAY CONTINUES MODELS SHOW THE UPGLIDE
STRENGTHENING AND WORKING NORTHWARD SOME...SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR SOME INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WINTER HAVEN TO SARASOTA
FOR THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...WITH MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

IT WILL BE A COOL AND DAMP DAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...MID 60S CENTRAL
ZONES...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 AT BEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON ALL OF THIS...SO A
MORNING UPDATE WILL NOT BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS GOOD OVERRUNNING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 17Z AS THE GRADIENT SLOWLY TIGHTENS ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW WITH EVENING
SURGES. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
DRIFT SOUTH AND SET UP ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS ON TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY WITH SCEC CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE WATERS WITH WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR TAMPA
BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KTS DURING
THE LATE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED
IN THE LATE MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING






000
FXUS62 KMFL 271359
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
DUE TO OVERRUNNING WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THEN INTO
PARTS OF COLLIER...HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE 12Z MIAMI
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED THE VERY SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...ABOUT 1500 FT...AND THEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY...THE
OVERRUNNING WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
MOVE THE HIGHER POPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
BY THE LAKE AND THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
A STABLE STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 010-020 FT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. /JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  70  81  73 /  60  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  70  80  72 /  30  30  50  30
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  30  20  40  30
NAPLES           71  62  82  67 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271359
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
DUE TO OVERRUNNING WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THEN INTO
PARTS OF COLLIER...HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE 12Z MIAMI
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED THE VERY SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...ABOUT 1500 FT...AND THEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY...THE
OVERRUNNING WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
MOVE THE HIGHER POPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
BY THE LAKE AND THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
A STABLE STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 010-020 FT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. /JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  70  81  73 /  60  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  70  80  72 /  30  30  50  30
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  30  20  40  30
NAPLES           71  62  82  67 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271359
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
DUE TO OVERRUNNING WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THEN INTO
PARTS OF COLLIER...HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE 12Z MIAMI
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED THE VERY SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...ABOUT 1500 FT...AND THEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY...THE
OVERRUNNING WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
MOVE THE HIGHER POPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
BY THE LAKE AND THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
A STABLE STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 010-020 FT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. /JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  70  81  73 /  60  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  70  80  72 /  30  30  50  30
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  30  20  40  30
NAPLES           71  62  82  67 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271359
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
DUE TO OVERRUNNING WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THEN INTO
PARTS OF COLLIER...HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE 12Z MIAMI
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED THE VERY SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...ABOUT 1500 FT...AND THEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY...THE
OVERRUNNING WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
MOVE THE HIGHER POPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
BY THE LAKE AND THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
A STABLE STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 010-020 FT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. /JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  70  81  73 /  60  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  70  80  72 /  30  30  50  30
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  30  20  40  30
NAPLES           71  62  82  67 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271359
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
859 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...AND A LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WAS
OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
DUE TO OVERRUNNING WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...THEN INTO
PARTS OF COLLIER...HENDRY AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE 12Z MIAMI
SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED THE VERY SHALLOW NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW...ABOUT 1500 FT...AND THEN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY...THE
OVERRUNNING WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUING...ESPECIALLY NORTH. THE MAIN UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
MOVE THE HIGHER POPS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 60S
BY THE LAKE AND THE MID/UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

AVIATION...
A STABLE STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 010-020 FT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. /JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  70  81  73 /  60  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  70  80  72 /  30  30  50  30
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  30  20  40  30
NAPLES           71  62  82  67 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....10/CD



000
FXUS62 KKEY 271146
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
646 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/28TH...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS JUST BELOW 1000 FEET AT THE KEY
WEST AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING UP TO 1500 FEET
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
OR LIFT INTO THE VFR LEVEL. MEANWHILE...IFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AT THE MARATHON AIRPORT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING TO
NEAR 1500 FEET...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY MID TO
LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST
AIRPORT...WITH MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AT THE MARATHON
TERMINAL.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 271146
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
646 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/28TH...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS JUST BELOW 1000 FEET AT THE KEY
WEST AIRPORT THIS MORNING...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING UP TO 1500 FEET
DURING THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE
OR LIFT INTO THE VFR LEVEL. MEANWHILE...IFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED AT THE MARATHON AIRPORT EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE LIFTING TO
NEAR 1500 FEET...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY MID TO
LATE THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST
AIRPORT...WITH MOSTLY NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AT THE MARATHON
TERMINAL.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
633 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
A STABLE STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 010-020 FT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. /JE/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  70  81  73 /  40  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  70  80  72 /  40  30  50  30
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  40  20  40  30
NAPLES           71  62  82  67 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
633 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
A STABLE STRATUS DECK WITH MVFR CIGS RANGING FROM 010-020 FT IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. NNW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE 24 HR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
EASTWARD NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. /JE/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  70  81  73 /  40  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  70  80  72 /  40  30  50  30
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  40  20  40  30
NAPLES           71  62  82  67 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KKEY 270935
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
435 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHED THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY EVENING...AND IS
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EVIDENT JUST HUNDREDS OF FEET OFF THE SURFACE.
CURRENT RADAR SCANS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE SERVICE AREA...WITH A DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA AT THIS
HOUR RANGE FROM 65F AT DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK TO 75 AT MOLASSES
REEF. WINDS ARE QUIET VARIABLE IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION...WITH
FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES BLOWING AND GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS IN THE DRY
TORTUGAS...AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS AT MOLASSES REEF.

FOR TODAY -- THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHEST WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE
EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. AIR TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL REACH
75-76F IN LOWER KEYS COMMUNITIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 80F IN THE
UPPER KEYS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY -- AN EXPANSIVE CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED INITIALLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FRESHENING BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS VEERING FROM
NORTHEAST TO EAST. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.
THEREAFTER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER WIND
SPEEDS NEXT WEEK AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...HAWK
CHANNEL FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH HALFMOON
SHOAL...AND THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/28TH...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 040 BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 8 TO
12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 18 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
ANTICIPATED AT KEY WEST.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 270935
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
435 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHED THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY EVENING...AND IS
CURRENTLY DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT IS VERY SHALLOW WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EVIDENT JUST HUNDREDS OF FEET OFF THE SURFACE.
CURRENT RADAR SCANS ARE SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OVER THE SERVICE AREA...WITH A DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA AT THIS
HOUR RANGE FROM 65F AT DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK TO 75 AT MOLASSES
REEF. WINDS ARE QUIET VARIABLE IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION...WITH
FRESH NORTHEAST BREEZES BLOWING AND GUSTING OVER 20 KNOTS IN THE DRY
TORTUGAS...AND NEARLY CALM CONDITIONS AT MOLASSES REEF.

FOR TODAY -- THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHEST WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE AND LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE
EAST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE. AIR TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL REACH
75-76F IN LOWER KEYS COMMUNITIES...BUT WILL RISE TO NEAR 80F IN THE
UPPER KEYS.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY -- AN EXPANSIVE CONTINENTAL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED INITIALLY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FRESHENING BREEZES AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH WINDS VEERING FROM
NORTHEAST TO EAST. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.
THEREAFTER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER WIND
SPEEDS NEXT WEEK AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING DRY TORTUGAS AND REBECCA SHOAL CHANNEL...HAWK
CHANNEL FROM THE WEST END OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE THROUGH HALFMOON
SHOAL...AND THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRESHENING NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES
EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/28TH...IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON AIRPORTS THIS MORNING. BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO VFR CEILINGS OF AROUND 040 BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.  OTHERWISE...EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 8 TO
12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 18 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
ANTICIPATED AT KEY WEST.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270932
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
432 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1039 MILLIBARS)
WAS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALOFT...OUR
REGION REMAINS SITUATED IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN STOUT
RIDGING THAT COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BROAD TROUGHING THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND. A CIRRUS SHIELD
BLANKETS OUR REGION...WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING CREATING POCKETS OF STRATUS. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
INLAND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH N-NE
WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT OUR REMAINING
STRATUS CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP A VEIL OF CIRRUS OVER OUR REGION FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION...COMPLIMENTS OF THE ARCTIC
RIDGE EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL KEEP
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE FEB CLIMO. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE...AND A N-NE WIND FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGHS INLAND WILL GENERALLY
CLIMB TO NEAR 60...WITH LOWER 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES. A LONG
NORTHEAST FETCH AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAY SEND A FEW
SHOWERS ONSHORE INTO FLAGLER COUNTY THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND THE REST
OF COASTAL NORTHEAST FL AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES OUR REGION. LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FOR FLAGLER COUNTY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 40 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST.

LOCAL NOR`EASTER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE COASTAL TROUGHING CREATES A TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE COAST...WHERE
NORTHEAST GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH. LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A JACKSONVILLE TO GAINESVILLE
LINE...AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ST.
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTY COASTS. MEANWHILE...A COLD AIR WEDGE
SCENARIO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50 AND SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
LATE. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE RISING OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS
RIDGING EXPANDS WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC...BOOSTING HIGHS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL INTO THE 60S. 50S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN
NORTHEAST FL DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE-THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

COASTAL TROUGHING WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SAT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND GRADUALLY DECREASING ONSHORE
WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. LIKELY POPS WILL EXTEND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF JACKSONVILLE AND
GAINESVILLE...FALLING BACK TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND VEERING LOW- LEVEL FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE CLIMO LOWS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL...WHERE MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 DEGREES. THE COLD
AIR WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO BUDGE OVER GA...WITH 40S EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BEGINS TO WEAKEN RESULTING IN WINDS RELAXING SOME AND VEERING
ALONG WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED ALONG THE NE FL COAST. LOW END SCATTERED POPS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WHERE THERE WILL STILL BE EVIDENCE
OF A WEDGE HOLDING ON THERE...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE THE VEERING WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO OFFSHORE THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS RESULTS IN A STEADY
WARM UP EACH DAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER...WITH TEMPS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WHEN AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. A WEAK FRONT MOVES
SOUTH AND WASHES OUT ACROSS SE GA ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
MAINLY  AFTERNOON SHOWERS THERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA
WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF 2000-2900 FT WILL PERSIST AT THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL REGION-WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS TOWARDS 06Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT SSI AND CRG. THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL PERSIST
AT SSI AND CRG TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE TOWARDS SUNSET...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS AT 1000 FT TOWARDS 06Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AND THEN WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...COASTAL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE
SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CREATING A TIGHTENING LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE CAUTION RANGE
THIS MORNING SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BOTH NEAR
SHORE AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE TONIGHT...PEAKING AT 6-8 FT ON
SATURDAY. OFFSHORE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT TONIGHT AND WILL PEAK
AT 7-10 FT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS NEAR SHORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHWARD...KEEPING ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NORTH OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE STRENGTHENING. HIGH RISK ANTICIPATED
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  39  50  42 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  53  44  50  47 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  57  45  56  49 /   0  30  50  40
SGJ  56  52  59  57 /   0  50  70  60
GNV  61  47  62  55 /   0  40  50  50
OCF  63  50  66  57 /   0  40  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270932
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
432 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE (1039 MILLIBARS)
WAS BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALOFT...OUR
REGION REMAINS SITUATED IN FAST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN BETWEEN STOUT
RIDGING THAT COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BROAD TROUGHING THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO NEW ENGLAND. A CIRRUS SHIELD
BLANKETS OUR REGION...WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING CREATING POCKETS OF STRATUS. CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
INLAND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT...WITH N-NE
WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL FINALLY SCOUR OUT OUR REMAINING
STRATUS CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STRONG SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP A VEIL OF CIRRUS OVER OUR REGION FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION...COMPLIMENTS OF THE ARCTIC
RIDGE EXPANDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL KEEP
HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW LATE FEB CLIMO. OUR LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE...AND A N-NE WIND FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
LOW/MID 50S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGHS INLAND WILL GENERALLY
CLIMB TO NEAR 60...WITH LOWER 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL.

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT AS
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES. A LONG
NORTHEAST FETCH AND THE DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAY SEND A FEW
SHOWERS ONSHORE INTO FLAGLER COUNTY THIS EVENING...WITH SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND THE REST
OF COASTAL NORTHEAST FL AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRAVERSES OUR REGION. LIKELY POPS WERE
USED FOR FLAGLER COUNTY DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 40 OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST.

LOCAL NOR`EASTER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SAT AND SAT NIGHT AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHILE COASTAL TROUGHING CREATES A TIGHT LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE COAST...WHERE
NORTHEAST GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH. LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF A JACKSONVILLE TO GAINESVILLE
LINE...AND SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ST.
JOHNS AND FLAGLER COUNTY COASTS. MEANWHILE...A COLD AIR WEDGE
SCENARIO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL KEEP CLOUDY AND RAW
CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50 AND SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
LATE. HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL BE RISING OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS
RIDGING EXPANDS WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC...BOOSTING HIGHS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL FL INTO THE 60S. 50S ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN
NORTHEAST FL DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND RAINFALL. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONE-THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR
COASTAL NORTHEAST FL AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.

COASTAL TROUGHING WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD SAT NIGHT...RESULTING IN
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND GRADUALLY DECREASING ONSHORE
WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS. LIKELY POPS WILL EXTEND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF JACKSONVILLE AND
GAINESVILLE...FALLING BACK TO CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CLOUDS...RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND VEERING LOW- LEVEL FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ABOVE CLIMO LOWS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
FL...WHERE MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 DEGREES. THE COLD
AIR WEDGE WILL BE SLOW TO BUDGE OVER GA...WITH 40S EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
BEGINS TO WEAKEN RESULTING IN WINDS RELAXING SOME AND VEERING
ALONG WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...BREEZY CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED ALONG THE NE FL COAST. LOW END SCATTERED POPS DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A WIDE RANGE IN AFTERNOON TEMPS ON MONDAY RANGING FROM
NEAR 60 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...WHERE THERE WILL STILL BE EVIDENCE
OF A WEDGE HOLDING ON THERE...TO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
WHERE THE VEERING WINDS WILL BRING IN WARMER AIR.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN
WHILE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO OFFSHORE THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS RESULTS IN A STEADY
WARM UP EACH DAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER...WITH TEMPS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK WHEN AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. A WEAK FRONT MOVES
SOUTH AND WASHES OUT ACROSS SE GA ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF
MAINLY  AFTERNOON SHOWERS THERE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH ON THURSDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREA
WIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF 2000-2900 FT WILL PERSIST AT THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL REGION-WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN
OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA TERMINALS TOWARDS 06Z. LIGHT
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AT 10-15 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT SSI AND CRG. THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL PERSIST
AT SSI AND CRG TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL
STEADILY INCREASE TOWARDS SUNSET...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 30
KNOTS AT 1000 FT TOWARDS 06Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY
TODAY...AND THEN WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...COASTAL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY TAKE
SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CREATING A TIGHTENING LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE CAUTION RANGE
THIS MORNING SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BOTH NEAR
SHORE AND OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. SOLID SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4-6 FT NEAR SHORE TONIGHT...PEAKING AT 6-8 FT ON
SATURDAY. OFFSHORE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT TONIGHT AND WILL PEAK
AT 7-10 FT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS NEAR SHORE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
SOUTHWARD...KEEPING ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NORTH OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
BECOME NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE STRENGTHENING. HIGH RISK ANTICIPATED
THIS WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  39  50  42 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  53  44  50  47 /   0  20  30  40
JAX  57  45  56  49 /   0  30  50  40
SGJ  56  52  59  57 /   0  50  70  60
GNV  61  47  62  55 /   0  40  50  50
OCF  63  50  66  57 /   0  40  50  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH
     FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO
     FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA
     BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST.
     AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/PETERSON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 270910
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
410 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s across
the northwest to the low to mid 60s across the southeast big bend.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.

&&

.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   58  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        58  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        59  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      61  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    64  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  62  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270910
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
410 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures are expected to range from the upper 50s across
the northwest to the low to mid 60s across the southeast big bend.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.

&&

.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   58  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        58  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        59  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      61  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    64  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  62  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270903
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  69  82  73 /  50  30  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  70  80  72 /  40  20  50  20
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           74  61  84  68 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270903
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
403 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DIFFUSE FRONT HAS NOW CLEARED SOUTH FLORIDA PER THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE
MID 50S ACROSS THE GULF COAST TO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC COAST WITH ALL OBSERVATIONS REPORTING LIGHT NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE SCATTERED LIGHT
TO MODERATE ELEVATED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEING AIDED
BY H5 WINDS OF 50 KNOTS.

THIS OVERRUNNING SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PERSIST AREA WIDE.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE MID
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT. BY SUNDAY...THE SWATH OF
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EDGE TO THE
NORTH AS STRONGER UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP REDUCE SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY.

SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA SOUTH INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE EAST.
AS A RESULT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
BY THURSDAY.

THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FRONT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER AT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE. THE GFS PLACES THE
STRONGEST UPPER RIDGING EAST OF THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL FLOW
SLIGHTLY MORE MERIDIONAL. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHUNTING THE H5
SHORTWAVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND THUS STALLING THE FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TOOK A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR NOW AND
WILL AWAIT BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TO 15-20 KNOTS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY TO ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  69  82  73 /  50  30  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  70  80  72 /  40  20  50  20
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           74  61  84  68 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMLB 270855
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A RATHER DIFFUSE COOL FRONT LIES OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. KMLB RADAR VAD WIND PROFILER AND KSC
PROFILERS INDICATE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS QUITE
SHALLOW...ONLY 2000 - 2500 FEET...WITH STOUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING ABOVE THE LAYER. CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN WITH SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS NEAR MARTIN AND SAINT
LUCIE COUNTY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COOL FRONT TO WASH OUT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AND VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE DAY CONTINUES...BECOMING
BREEZY ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. EXPECT SEVERAL
LAYERS OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AS OVERRUNNING CONTINUES OVERHEAD.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...INITIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...THEN SPREADING FURTHER NORTH AS
OVERRUNNING STRENGHTENS A BIT DUE TO INCREASING N/NE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. REGARDLESS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
H9 WINDS PROGD WILL BE A SOLID 25 KNOTS ONSHORE WITH WITH MID LVL
WSW FLOW PRODUCING MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVER THE EXPANSIVE LOW LVL
STRATOCU DECK THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS E CENTRAL FL. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ATLANTIC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A
SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY SKIRT NRN SECTIONS WITH SOME
MID LVL LIFT. WILL HAVE 40-50 POPS NORTH AND 60 PCT SOUTH. ROUGH AND
POUNDING SURF IS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. THE
BEACHES WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S LAKE COUNTY TO LOWER 70S FOR THE TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST ON
SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER ABOUT 10% BUT STILL BE IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 70S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 10 FT AT BUOY
41009 ON SUNDAY WITH ROUGH SURF CONTINUING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR
A SECOND DAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME BEACH EROSION AT THE BEACHES.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FOR ANYONE ENTERING THE
POUNDING SURF.

MONDAY...MODELS SHOW LOW LVL FLOW BEGINNING TO VEER AS MID LVL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FL KEYS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND AROUND 80/LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.

TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL
TO THE BAHAMAS. SE FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TERMINALS...INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS THE DAY GOES
ON...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. OVERRUNNING WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERAL CLOUDS LAYERS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWERING CIGS TO IFR TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED
NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH
WILL INCREASE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS 10 - 15 KNOTS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 15 - 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER TONIGHT. HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS INITIALLY FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET BEGINNING AT 1800Z (100 PM LOCAL)...FURTHER SOUTH THE
ADVISORY BEGINS AT 2300Z (600 PM LOCAL). SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SAT-SUN...EAST WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 10-11 FT OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE MONDAY BUT HIGHER
SEAS WILL STILL LINGER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER TO SE/S INTO MID
WEEK AND SLACKEN SOME WITH SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  57  70  65 /  20  30  50  40
MCO  65  57  77  65 /  20  20  40  40
MLB  67  64  75  71 /  30  30  50  40
VRB  69  67  77  71 /  30  30  60  50
LEE  64  54  75  60 /  10  20  50  40
SFB  64  56  73  62 /  20  20  50  40
ORL  64  57  75  64 /  20  20  40  40
FPR  70  67  77  71 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER UPDATE/LONG TERM....VOLKMER



000
FXUS62 KMLB 270855
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A RATHER DIFFUSE COOL FRONT LIES OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. KMLB RADAR VAD WIND PROFILER AND KSC
PROFILERS INDICATE LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IS QUITE
SHALLOW...ONLY 2000 - 2500 FEET...WITH STOUT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING ABOVE THE LAYER. CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN WITH SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS NEAR MARTIN AND SAINT
LUCIE COUNTY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...EXPECT THE COOL FRONT TO WASH OUT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
AND VEER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE DAY CONTINUES...BECOMING
BREEZY ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM THE CAPE NORTHWARD. EXPECT SEVERAL
LAYERS OF CLOUD COVER TODAY AS OVERRUNNING CONTINUES OVERHEAD.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED...INITIALLY ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY...THEN SPREADING FURTHER NORTH AS
OVERRUNNING STRENGHTENS A BIT DUE TO INCREASING N/NE WINDS AT THE
SURFACE. REGARDLESS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

SATURDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST AND A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
H9 WINDS PROGD WILL BE A SOLID 25 KNOTS ONSHORE WITH WITH MID LVL
WSW FLOW PRODUCING MID LVL CLOUDINESS OVER THE EXPANSIVE LOW LVL
STRATOCU DECK THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS E CENTRAL FL. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH ATLANTIC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH MAY PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. SHORT RANGE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A
SECONDARY BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY SKIRT NRN SECTIONS WITH SOME
MID LVL LIFT. WILL HAVE 40-50 POPS NORTH AND 60 PCT SOUTH. ROUGH AND
POUNDING SURF IS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE
FLOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID-UPPER 70S SOUTH.

SAT NIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED ATLANTIC SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. THE
BEACHES WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS NEAR THE COAST.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S LAKE COUNTY TO LOWER 70S FOR THE TREASURE
COAST.

SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLC COAST ON
SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY FLOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD STILL
SUPPORT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. RAIN CHANCES WILL LOWER ABOUT 10% BUT STILL BE IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE FROM 30-50 PERCENT WITH ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE MID 70S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY TO NEAR 80
ACROSS THE FAR SRN COUNTIES. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 10 FT AT BUOY
41009 ON SUNDAY WITH ROUGH SURF CONTINUING. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW FOR
A SECOND DAY WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME BEACH EROSION AT THE BEACHES.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FOR ANYONE ENTERING THE
POUNDING SURF.

MONDAY...MODELS SHOW LOW LVL FLOW BEGINNING TO VEER AS MID LVL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE FL KEYS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE WARMER IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND AROUND 80/LOWER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.

TUE-WED...THE MID WEEK PERIOD WILL BE WARM WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
ANY RAIN AS A MID LVL RIDGE TRANSITIONS FROM THE ERN GULF ACROSS FL
TO THE BAHAMAS. SE FLOW TUE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WED WILL ALLOW HIGHS
TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

THU-FRI...00Z GFS INDICATES A MORE PROGRESSIVE S/W SLIDING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY ON THU WHICH WOULD ALLOW A FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THU
NIGHT. 12Z/00Z ECM GUIDANCE CONTINUES A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE AREA
FOR MID WEEK WHICH IS SLOWER TO BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT WEEK. THE ECM
ALSO SHOWS A LESS AMPLIFIED S/W SLIDING TWD THE MID ATLC RESULTING
IN FRONTAL MOISTURE JUST REACHING OUR NRN AREAS FRIDAY AS A TRAILING
FRONT IS BRIDGED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WILL LEAN TWD THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WHICH WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHCS NORTH
THU AND WILL KEEP FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TERMINALS...INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS THE DAY GOES
ON...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. OVERRUNNING WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP SEVERAL CLOUDS LAYERS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWERING CIGS TO IFR TONIGHT. HAVE OPTED
NOT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR NORTH
WILL INCREASE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS 10 - 15 KNOTS EXPECTED TO
BUILD TO 15 - 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER TONIGHT. HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WINDS INITIALLY FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET BEGINNING AT 1800Z (100 PM LOCAL)...FURTHER SOUTH THE
ADVISORY BEGINS AT 2300Z (600 PM LOCAL). SEAS WILL BUILD TO SCA
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT.

SAT-SUN...EAST WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND
WILL BUILD SEAS TO 7-9 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 10-11 FT OFFSHORE.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE MONDAY BUT HIGHER
SEAS WILL STILL LINGER OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER TO SE/S INTO MID
WEEK AND SLACKEN SOME WITH SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  57  70  65 /  20  30  50  40
MCO  65  57  77  65 /  20  20  40  40
MLB  67  64  75  71 /  30  30  50  40
VRB  69  67  77  71 /  30  30  60  50
LEE  64  54  75  60 /  10  20  50  40
SFB  64  56  73  62 /  20  20  50  40
ORL  64  57  75  64 /  20  20  40  40
FPR  70  67  77  71 /  30  30  60  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO
     JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER UPDATE/LONG TERM....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A RATHER CLOUDY AND POTENTIALLY WET END
TO THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC
SET UP...WHICH INCLUDES A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCING
GENERALLY ZONAL...BUT SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH CENTER WITH A PRESSURE NEAR 1045MB WILL BE
SITUATED TO OUR NORTH...AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO OUR SOUTH.

STARTING DOWN NEAR THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SURFACE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUT OUR ENTIRE REGION UNDER A
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS SETUP
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL TRY TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE STRONG EAST FLOW WILL DISPLACE THE
TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE PENINSULA DURING SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE WINDS
BECOME A BIT LIGHTER. THIS FEATURE ON ITS OWN WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH LIGHT MODERATE SHOWERS.

NOW MOVING OUR WAY HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE...THE BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A LONG FETCH OF INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL OVER-RUN THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE. WEAK UPGLIDE TODAY SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT EVEN THERE
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE OF THE OFF AND ON
NATURE.

ON SATURDAY...UPGLIDE INCREASES IN DEPTH AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH.
RAINFALL COULD BE STEADIER AND HEAVIER ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF LIFT EXIST BETWEEN MODELS.
THE MORE SHALLOW SHOWERY TYPE OF RAIN WILL MORE PREVALENT OVER OUR
SOUTHERN INLAND LOCATIONS. A STEADIER AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED DEEPER SHOWERS SHOULD SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG OR NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE GENERALLY
BROAD-BRUSHED 30 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. WE MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE THIS A BIT BETTER LATER TODAY...
OR CERTAINLY BY EARLY SATURDAY AS THESE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES PLAY OUT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...ALIGNED
ABOVE A BUILDING RIDGE WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME VERY WARM
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST FOR SUNDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH AN
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1035+
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ALTHOUGH NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR A BROAD LOW
LEVEL UPGLIDE REGIME TO BE IN PLACE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON
SUNDAY. THIS LIFT WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPEED CONVERGENCE
SHOWERS PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE FL
EAST COAST. AGAIN...THE SETUP IS NOT AS GOOD FOR THE SHOWERS AS
SATURDAY...BUT STILL NEED TO MENTION AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN. BETTER CHANCES FOR NUMEROUS SUNNY BREAKS TO OCCUR
SHOULD BE DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY...AND THE FURTHER
SOUTH ONE TRAVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING TO CLIMB BY
SUNDAY...BUT JUST HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
LOWER CLOUDS WITHIN THE UPGLIDE REGIME. MOS CONSENSUS IS FOR 70S
NORTH OF I-4 AND LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. THESE NUMBERS MAY NEED TO
BE NUDGED DOWN WITH FUTURE FORECASTS...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THEY
ARE AT LEAST IN THE BALLPARK.

THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
CONTROL THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW A WEAKER GRADIENT
BUY THIS TIME...AND A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WITH
TIME. THE END RESULT LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY DAY WITH A WEAK
ENOUGH GRADIENT TO ALLOW FOR A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE MAY SEE A FEW
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...HOWEVER THIS IS A BIT FAR INTO THE
EXTENDED TO TRY AND PIN-POINT THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS...AND ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND
CERTAINLY NOT ANYTHING TO DETER OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE RAPIDLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES ARE
RELATED TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING
INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/DEEP SOUTH. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH PHASING THIS ENERGY AND DEEPENING THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...AND ALSO FASTEST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF DOES A LESS EFFECTIVE JOB AT PHASING THIS ENERGY
AND KEEPS THE TROUGH LESS AMPLIFIED AND OVERALL SLOWER. THE RESULT
OF THIS ACTION IS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...AND ALSO FOR THE PASSAGE TO BE LESS
SUBSTANTIAL. LOOKING AT THE INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE
MAJORITY TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND/OR SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LONG DURATION OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
LIFTING WITH BREAKS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...IT WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH AND RIDGE BACK ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHERN GULF RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE FAVORABLE
SEAS.

WINDS IN THE MIDDLE OF TAMPA BAY HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER VALUES CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. WINDS OFFSHORE
HAVE BEEN MAINLY AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY SURGE. WILL
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR TODAY IN ALL WATERS EXCEPT TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WE MAY EVEN NEED A SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  55  75  63 /  10  10  30  30
FMY  71  61  80  66 /  30  10  30  20
GIF  65  56  74  63 /  20  20  40  40
SRQ  67  57  77  64 /  20  10  30  20
BKV  65  53  72  60 /   0  20  30  40
SPG  65  58  73  64 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
335 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A RATHER CLOUDY AND POTENTIALLY WET END
TO THE WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC
SET UP...WHICH INCLUDES A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PRODUCING
GENERALLY ZONAL...BUT SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FLOW OVERHEAD. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE HIGH CENTER WITH A PRESSURE NEAR 1045MB WILL BE
SITUATED TO OUR NORTH...AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS TO OUR SOUTH.

STARTING DOWN NEAR THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
SURFACE FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PUT OUR ENTIRE REGION UNDER A
MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW. AS IS TYPICAL WITH THIS SETUP
THIS TIME OF YEAR...AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL TRY TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE STRONG EAST FLOW WILL DISPLACE THE
TROUGH WESTWARD OVER THE PENINSULA DURING SATURDAY. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SPEED CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS WHERE WINDS
BECOME A BIT LIGHTER. THIS FEATURE ON ITS OWN WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH LIGHT MODERATE SHOWERS.

NOW MOVING OUR WAY HIGHER INTO THE ATMOSPHERE...THE BROAD
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A LONG FETCH OF INCREASINGLY MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL OVER-RUN THE SHALLOW COOL AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE. WEAK UPGLIDE TODAY SHOULD BE SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BEST
RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT EVEN THERE
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND RAIN WILL BE OF THE OFF AND ON
NATURE.

ON SATURDAY...UPGLIDE INCREASES IN DEPTH AND BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTH.
RAINFALL COULD BE STEADIER AND HEAVIER ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF LIFT EXIST BETWEEN MODELS.
THE MORE SHALLOW SHOWERY TYPE OF RAIN WILL MORE PREVALENT OVER OUR
SOUTHERN INLAND LOCATIONS. A STEADIER AND POTENTIALLY HEAVIER RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED DEEPER SHOWERS SHOULD SET UP SOMEWHERE ALONG OR NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.

DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...WE HAVE GENERALLY
BROAD-BRUSHED 30 TO 40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. WE MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE THIS A BIT BETTER LATER TODAY...
OR CERTAINLY BY EARLY SATURDAY AS THESE SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE
FEATURES PLAY OUT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH A GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...ALIGNED
ABOVE A BUILDING RIDGE WHICH LOOKS TO BRING SOME VERY WARM
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST FOR SUNDAY WE WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH AN
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1035+
RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ALTHOUGH NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS IS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL FOR A BROAD LOW
LEVEL UPGLIDE REGIME TO BE IN PLACE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON
SUNDAY. THIS LIFT WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPEED CONVERGENCE
SHOWERS PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE FL
EAST COAST. AGAIN...THE SETUP IS NOT AS GOOD FOR THE SHOWERS AS
SATURDAY...BUT STILL NEED TO MENTION AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...ALONG WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUN. BETTER CHANCES FOR NUMEROUS SUNNY BREAKS TO OCCUR
SHOULD BE DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE DAY...AND THE FURTHER
SOUTH ONE TRAVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARTING TO CLIMB BY
SUNDAY...BUT JUST HOW MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT AND DURATION OF
LOWER CLOUDS WITHIN THE UPGLIDE REGIME. MOS CONSENSUS IS FOR 70S
NORTH OF I-4 AND LOWER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. THESE NUMBERS MAY NEED TO
BE NUDGED DOWN WITH FUTURE FORECASTS...BUT FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THEY
ARE AT LEAST IN THE BALLPARK.

THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO
CONTROL THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. THE SURFACE
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL ALLOW A WEAKER GRADIENT
BUY THIS TIME...AND A SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WITH
TIME. THE END RESULT LOOKS TO BE A GENERALLY DRY PERIOD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ANY DAY WITH A WEAK
ENOUGH GRADIENT TO ALLOW FOR A DEFINED SEA-BREEZE MAY SEE A FEW
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS...HOWEVER THIS IS A BIT FAR INTO THE
EXTENDED TO TRY AND PIN-POINT THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS...AND ANY
SHOWERS THAT FORM ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND
CERTAINLY NOT ANYTHING TO DETER OUTDOOR PLANS.

THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE RAPIDLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES ARE
RELATED TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY DROPPING
INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTY AND ADDITIONAL ENERGY EJECTING
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO/DEEP SOUTH. THE GFS IS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH PHASING THIS ENERGY AND DEEPENING THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...AND ALSO FASTEST TO PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THE ECMWF DOES A LESS EFFECTIVE JOB AT PHASING THIS ENERGY
AND KEEPS THE TROUGH LESS AMPLIFIED AND OVERALL SLOWER. THE RESULT
OF THIS ACTION IS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...AND ALSO FOR THE PASSAGE TO BE LESS
SUBSTANTIAL. LOOKING AT THE INDIVIDUAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE
MAJORITY TEND TO LEAN TOWARD A LESS AMPLIFIED PATTERN AND/OR SLOW
PROGRESSION EASTWARD COMPARED TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN. WITH THIS IN
MIND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
LONG DURATION OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME
LIFTING WITH BREAKS COULD OCCUR BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION UNDER ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ONCE THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...IT WILL BEGIN TO SINK SOUTH AND RIDGE BACK ACROSS FLORIDA
AND THE NORTHERN GULF RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND MORE FAVORABLE
SEAS.

WINDS IN THE MIDDLE OF TAMPA BAY HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER VALUES CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE. WINDS OFFSHORE
HAVE BEEN MAINLY AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT TODAY...AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY SURGE. WILL
HEADLINE EXERCISE CAUTION FOR TODAY IN ALL WATERS EXCEPT TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR. WE MAY EVEN NEED A SHORT DURATION SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  55  75  63 /  10  10  30  30
FMY  71  61  80  66 /  30  10  30  20
GIF  65  56  74  63 /  20  20  40  40
SRQ  67  57  77  64 /  20  10  30  20
BKV  65  53  72  60 /   0  20  30  40
SPG  65  58  73  64 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KMFL 270538
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1238 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO
THE NAPLES AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

THE WINDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE
SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED EARLIER THIS
EVENING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  69  82  73 /  50  30  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  70  80  72 /  40  20  50  20
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           74  61  84  68 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 270538
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1238 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND 1500-1900
FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS WITHIN
MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE TO PUT THE IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND
BECOMING BROKEN AND SCATTERED. THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN MOST LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. FOR FRIDAY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO
THE NAPLES AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

THE WINDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE
SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED EARLIER THIS
EVENING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  69  82  73 /  50  30  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  70  80  72 /  40  20  50  20
MIAMI            78  69  82  71 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           74  61  84  68 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270356
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1056 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Finally a quiet night over the region with lower level clouds
giving way to a band of mainly cirrus which is gradually pushing
SE across the CWA. Temps will be fairly chilly with low temps
ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s from NW to SE. The only
major change to the fcst was to cancel the SCA to the west and go
with a SCEC across the board over the Coastal Waters tonight as
the latest winds and seas should range from 15 to 20 knots out of
the north. However, SCA conditions are likely to make a return on
Friday night.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Sky conditions will gradually improve from
MVFR to VFR from NW to SE tonight and during the day on Friday at
the terminals, with only Sct-Bkn Cirrus remaining by days end.

&&

.Prev Discussion [229 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The dominant weather feature over the next few days will be the
strong and sprawling area of high pressure spreading from the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Expect to see a modest warmup on
Friday with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the northwest to
the mid 60s in the southeast. Saturday will be trickier as the
surface high reaches the Mid-Atlantic states and wedges down the
lee of the Appalachians. While the southern portions of the area
will likely reach the 60s Saturday afternoon, portions of
southwest and south central Georgia will struggle into the 50s
with cloudy skies and cool northeasterly flow.

Farther south, rain chances will increase over the southeastern
Big Bend as yesterdays front begins to creep back to the north as
a warm front.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The wedge of high pressure should break down by Sunday afternoon,
allowing for temperatures to return to the 60s area wide. However
scattered showers will be possible as developing return flow rides
up and over the remaining wedge and a weak front approaches from
the west.

Scattered showers will be possible on Monday into Monday night as
well, as the front approaches the forecast area and stalls. A
building ridge over the gulf will keep temperatures on a warming
trend through the first half of the week, with afternoon
temperatures well into the 70s Monday and Tuesday. Another front
is forecast to approach the region by the middle of the week, with
another chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.


.Marine...
Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions near or above Small Craft
Advisory levels beginning tonight through early Sunday. Conditions
will improve for Sunday into early next week as the area of high
pressure weakens.


.Fire Weather...
No Fire Weather concerns are expected for the next several days
despite a brief intrusion of significantly drier air on Friday.


.Hydrology...
Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain yesterday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   37  61  43  63  50 /  10   0  10  10  30
Panama City   39  59  44  61  50 /   0   0  10  20  20
Dothan        34  56  39  54  41 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        35  59  39  51  43 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      39  61  43  58  48 /  10   0  10  10  30
Cross City    41  64  44  64  52 /  10   0  10  40  30
Apalachicola  42  59  47  62  52 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON







000
FXUS62 KTAE 270356
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1056 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Finally a quiet night over the region with lower level clouds
giving way to a band of mainly cirrus which is gradually pushing
SE across the CWA. Temps will be fairly chilly with low temps
ranging from the mid 30s to the lower 40s from NW to SE. The only
major change to the fcst was to cancel the SCA to the west and go
with a SCEC across the board over the Coastal Waters tonight as
the latest winds and seas should range from 15 to 20 knots out of
the north. However, SCA conditions are likely to make a return on
Friday night.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] Sky conditions will gradually improve from
MVFR to VFR from NW to SE tonight and during the day on Friday at
the terminals, with only Sct-Bkn Cirrus remaining by days end.

&&

.Prev Discussion [229 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The dominant weather feature over the next few days will be the
strong and sprawling area of high pressure spreading from the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Expect to see a modest warmup on
Friday with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the northwest to
the mid 60s in the southeast. Saturday will be trickier as the
surface high reaches the Mid-Atlantic states and wedges down the
lee of the Appalachians. While the southern portions of the area
will likely reach the 60s Saturday afternoon, portions of
southwest and south central Georgia will struggle into the 50s
with cloudy skies and cool northeasterly flow.

Farther south, rain chances will increase over the southeastern
Big Bend as yesterdays front begins to creep back to the north as
a warm front.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The wedge of high pressure should break down by Sunday afternoon,
allowing for temperatures to return to the 60s area wide. However
scattered showers will be possible as developing return flow rides
up and over the remaining wedge and a weak front approaches from
the west.

Scattered showers will be possible on Monday into Monday night as
well, as the front approaches the forecast area and stalls. A
building ridge over the gulf will keep temperatures on a warming
trend through the first half of the week, with afternoon
temperatures well into the 70s Monday and Tuesday. Another front
is forecast to approach the region by the middle of the week, with
another chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.


.Marine...
Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions near or above Small Craft
Advisory levels beginning tonight through early Sunday. Conditions
will improve for Sunday into early next week as the area of high
pressure weakens.


.Fire Weather...
No Fire Weather concerns are expected for the next several days
despite a brief intrusion of significantly drier air on Friday.


.Hydrology...
Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain yesterday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   37  61  43  63  50 /  10   0  10  10  30
Panama City   39  59  44  61  50 /   0   0  10  20  20
Dothan        34  56  39  54  41 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        35  59  39  51  43 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      39  61  43  58  48 /  10   0  10  10  30
Cross City    41  64  44  64  52 /  10   0  10  40  30
Apalachicola  42  59  47  62  52 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






000
FXUS62 KKEY 270337
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AREA...IS WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL ZONE. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW
HAS LITTLE TO WORK DUE TO SURFACE FLOW BEING QUITE WEAK...AND ALL
SUPPORT ALOFT LOCATED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. WITH THAT
SAID...SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SOME LOWER KEYS LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN MODERATE
RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS...TURNING WINDS NORTH TO
NORTH EAST STRENGTHENING TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE. DESPITE THE
MAIN BODY OF THE COLD FRONT BEING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...THE
GRADUALLY CHANGING AIRMASS...ALONG WITH THE COOLER WATERS TO OUR
NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE DOWN TO NEAR 70 OR THE
UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MID CHANCE. FORCING ALOFT IS NON
EXISTENT...AND SURFACE FLOW IS WEAK...AND EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHERLY
SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.
MAY UPDATE THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASED TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT
PULASKI SHOAL. WEAK OR VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE REMAINING CMANS WILL
GRADUALLY ALL SHIFT NORTH AND STRENGTHEN. WITH THAT SAID...CAUTIONS
ARE ONLY BEING ADVERTISED FOR OUR OUTER GULF ZONES...WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. HAVE FRESHENED INITIAL WIND WORDING IN
THE EVENING MARINE FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER EYW AT THIS HOUR AND WILL REACH MTH AFTER
27/05Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...FROM NORTHWEST AND REMAINING GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL SWING BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR AS THE COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY...LIFTING
NORTH AND DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......99

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270337
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1037 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MIGRATING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AREA...IS WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL ZONE. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW
HAS LITTLE TO WORK DUE TO SURFACE FLOW BEING QUITE WEAK...AND ALL
SUPPORT ALOFT LOCATED WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA. WITH THAT
SAID...SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND SOME LOWER KEYS LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN MODERATE
RAIN. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS...TURNING WINDS NORTH TO
NORTH EAST STRENGTHENING TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE. DESPITE THE
MAIN BODY OF THE COLD FRONT BEING WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA...THE
GRADUALLY CHANGING AIRMASS...ALONG WITH THE COOLER WATERS TO OUR
NORTH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE DOWN TO NEAR 70 OR THE
UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MID CHANCE. FORCING ALOFT IS NON
EXISTENT...AND SURFACE FLOW IS WEAK...AND EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHERLY
SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK.
MAY UPDATE THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS HAVE
ALREADY SHIFTED NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASED TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT
PULASKI SHOAL. WEAK OR VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE REMAINING CMANS WILL
GRADUALLY ALL SHIFT NORTH AND STRENGTHEN. WITH THAT SAID...CAUTIONS
ARE ONLY BEING ADVERTISED FOR OUR OUTER GULF ZONES...WHERE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST. HAVE FRESHENED INITIAL WIND WORDING IN
THE EVENING MARINE FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER EYW AT THIS HOUR AND WILL REACH MTH AFTER
27/05Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...FROM NORTHWEST AND REMAINING GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. CEILINGS WILL SWING BETWEEN MVFR AND
IFR AS THE COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY...LIFTING
NORTH AND DISSIPATING ON FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......99

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 270218
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...FRONT SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY DOWN EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA PER METARS/OBSERVATIONS. PATRICK AFB AND MELBOURNE WERE THE
LATEST TO EXPERIENCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
FRONT MOVED THROUGH. RADARS INDICATING A PERSISTENT STREAM OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES. RAP/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING
THAT THE SHOWERS WERE MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE BACK RIGHT QUADRANT OF
A MID LEVEL/700MB JET LENDING ADDITIONAL FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NORTH...TO THE LOW/MID LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. BOTH THE RUC AND GFS NOT IN ANY HURRY TO MOVE THE 700MB
JET OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
SEBASTIAN AND SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH TO JUPITER INLET AND IN TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR NORTH DOES NOT WORK ITS
VERY FAR IF AT ALL INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THEREFORE WILL KEEP
SKIES CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT...POST-FROPA TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THE MORNING UPDATE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON... REACHING 70 OR A LITTLE ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTH.
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...MARKING THE SECONDARY
FROPA...HAS DROPPED READINGS BACK INTO THE U50S. KMLB 88D AND
CCAFS MESONET WIND DATA SHOW THIS BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG COASTAL AREAS (BUT NOT YET INLAND)...REACHING
NRN BREVARD CO WITHIN THE LAST HR.

OVERNIGHT/FRI...SECONDARY COOL FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT SAGS
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BOUNDARY BECOME BRIDGED BY DEVELOPING
NNE-NE FLOW FROM THE LARGE/STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CTRL-
ERN CONUS. SHALLOW POST FRONTAL N-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT SWLY
H85 FLOW...WHICH ACTUALLY BACKS SOME TO S-SSE BY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS/OCCASIONAL
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL BUT NOT COLD...BUT
WITH A CHILLY N-NE BREEZE. MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...SOME U40S PSBL
OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND L60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. FRI
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH L70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA DURING THE PERIOD. DEEP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERLYING SHALLOW NORTH/NORTHEAST LOFT WILL KEEP MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INDICATED 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...SIMILAR TO GFS MOS...BUT
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NAM MOS. WHILE QPF GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...DURATION OF LIGHT RAIN COULD RESULT IN NEAR 0.25 INCH TOTALS
IN FEW AREAS. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE 50S INLAND...BUT 60S
ALONG COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. WARMER SATURDAY
NIGHT...RANGING FROM NEAR 60 FAR NW INTERIOR TO MID 70S FAR SE
COAST.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
ONSHORE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AND WINDY ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND...REBOUNDING TEMPS WITH GRADUAL
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY... AND
PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE/WED...EXCEPT NEAR 80S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SLOW MOVING FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CAPE CANAVERAL TO THE
TAMPA AREA. MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND ABOVE 4000 FEET OVER NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WIND THAT WAS PUSHING A DRIER AIR MASS DOWN THE CENTER
OF THE STATE KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS THE REST OF THE NIGHT VERO BEACH
NORTH AND TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS VERO BEACH
SOUTH.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

SMALL AREA OF HIGHER END IFR (BKN-OVC007-009) DEVELOPED INVOF VRB-
FPR A LITTLE AFTER 18Z BUT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LOCALIZED AND
TEMPORARY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
BKN015-025. TO THE NORTH...CIGS VFR BKN-OVC040-060...BUT INCREASING
COOL NRLY FLOW MAY CAUSE THESE TO LOWER TO MVFR/020-030 AFTER 00Z.
CIGS TEMPORARILY BREAKING UP IN A SMALL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF LEE-DAB
BUT EXPECT THESE TO FILL BACK IN AS CIGS NEAR OVC015 PERSIST JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THAT "SUCKER HOLE".


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. WINDS AT BUOY 009 AND TRIDENT PIER AT CAPE
CANAVERAL SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THOSE SITES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.


PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION AFTER COORD WITH MIA...MADE LATE CHANGE A
LITTLE AFTER 1PM TO BRIEFLY EXTEND SCA (FOR WINDS ONLY ) FOR ANOTHER
3HR (TIL 4PM) PLAN TO LET THIS EXPIRE WITH THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.
LULL IN WINDS/ SEAS TONIGHT TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH BUILDING TO
NORTH TIGHTENS LOCAL PGRAD...AND PUSHES SEAS BACK TO CAUTIONARY
LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SATURDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...AS
SEAS QUICKLY RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. SEAS LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE
8-11 FT RANGE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINOR BEACH EROSION
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER SE BY MONDAY AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT TUESDAY AND 10-15 KT
WEDNESDAY. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY TO 5-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 7-8
FT OFFSHORE...THEN GENERALLY NEAR 4 FT NEARSHORE TUE/WED AND 5 FT
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  63  55  70 /   0  10  20  40
MCO  51  68  55  78 /  10  20  20  30
MLB  58  68  62  74 /  30  40  20  40
VRB  61  70  66  77 /  40  40  30  40
LEE  48  64  51  75 /   0  10  20  30
SFB  50  66  53  73 /   0  20  20  30
ORL  51  67  55  75 /  10  20  20  30
FPR  61  71  68  78 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WIMMER



000
FXUS62 KMLB 270218
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...FRONT SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY DOWN EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA PER METARS/OBSERVATIONS. PATRICK AFB AND MELBOURNE WERE THE
LATEST TO EXPERIENCE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
FRONT MOVED THROUGH. RADARS INDICATING A PERSISTENT STREAM OF
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN 4 COUNTIES. RAP/RUC ANALYSIS INDICATING
THAT THE SHOWERS WERE MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE BACK RIGHT QUADRANT OF
A MID LEVEL/700MB JET LENDING ADDITIONAL FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT TO THE NORTH...TO THE LOW/MID LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. BOTH THE RUC AND GFS NOT IN ANY HURRY TO MOVE THE 700MB
JET OUT OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM
SEBASTIAN AND SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTH TO JUPITER INLET AND IN TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY OVERNIGHT. THE DRIER AIR NORTH DOES NOT WORK ITS
VERY FAR IF AT ALL INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THEREFORE WILL KEEP
SKIES CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

CURRENT...POST-FROPA TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THE MORNING UPDATE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON... REACHING 70 OR A LITTLE ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTH.
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...MARKING THE SECONDARY
FROPA...HAS DROPPED READINGS BACK INTO THE U50S. KMLB 88D AND
CCAFS MESONET WIND DATA SHOW THIS BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG COASTAL AREAS (BUT NOT YET INLAND)...REACHING
NRN BREVARD CO WITHIN THE LAST HR.

OVERNIGHT/FRI...SECONDARY COOL FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT SAGS
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BOUNDARY BECOME BRIDGED BY DEVELOPING
NNE-NE FLOW FROM THE LARGE/STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CTRL-
ERN CONUS. SHALLOW POST FRONTAL N-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT SWLY
H85 FLOW...WHICH ACTUALLY BACKS SOME TO S-SSE BY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS/OCCASIONAL
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL BUT NOT COLD...BUT
WITH A CHILLY N-NE BREEZE. MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...SOME U40S PSBL
OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND L60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. FRI
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH L70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA DURING THE PERIOD. DEEP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERLYING SHALLOW NORTH/NORTHEAST LOFT WILL KEEP MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INDICATED 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...SIMILAR TO GFS MOS...BUT
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NAM MOS. WHILE QPF GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...DURATION OF LIGHT RAIN COULD RESULT IN NEAR 0.25 INCH TOTALS
IN FEW AREAS. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE 50S INLAND...BUT 60S
ALONG COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. WARMER SATURDAY
NIGHT...RANGING FROM NEAR 60 FAR NW INTERIOR TO MID 70S FAR SE
COAST.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
ONSHORE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AND WINDY ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND...REBOUNDING TEMPS WITH GRADUAL
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY... AND
PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE/WED...EXCEPT NEAR 80S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SLOW MOVING FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CAPE CANAVERAL TO THE
TAMPA AREA. MOIST WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND ABOVE 4000 FEET OVER NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WIND THAT WAS PUSHING A DRIER AIR MASS DOWN THE CENTER
OF THE STATE KEEPS MVFR CEILINGS THE REST OF THE NIGHT VERO BEACH
NORTH AND TEMPO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS VERO BEACH
SOUTH.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

SMALL AREA OF HIGHER END IFR (BKN-OVC007-009) DEVELOPED INVOF VRB-
FPR A LITTLE AFTER 18Z BUT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LOCALIZED AND
TEMPORARY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
BKN015-025. TO THE NORTH...CIGS VFR BKN-OVC040-060...BUT INCREASING
COOL NRLY FLOW MAY CAUSE THESE TO LOWER TO MVFR/020-030 AFTER 00Z.
CIGS TEMPORARILY BREAKING UP IN A SMALL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF LEE-DAB
BUT EXPECT THESE TO FILL BACK IN AS CIGS NEAR OVC015 PERSIST JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THAT "SUCKER HOLE".


&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS. WINDS AT BUOY 009 AND TRIDENT PIER AT CAPE
CANAVERAL SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE
FRONT CLEARS THOSE SITES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT.


PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION AFTER COORD WITH MIA...MADE LATE CHANGE A
LITTLE AFTER 1PM TO BRIEFLY EXTEND SCA (FOR WINDS ONLY ) FOR ANOTHER
3HR (TIL 4PM) PLAN TO LET THIS EXPIRE WITH THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.
LULL IN WINDS/ SEAS TONIGHT TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH BUILDING TO
NORTH TIGHTENS LOCAL PGRAD...AND PUSHES SEAS BACK TO CAUTIONARY
LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SATURDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...AS
SEAS QUICKLY RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. SEAS LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE
8-11 FT RANGE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINOR BEACH EROSION
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER SE BY MONDAY AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT TUESDAY AND 10-15 KT
WEDNESDAY. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY TO 5-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 7-8
FT OFFSHORE...THEN GENERALLY NEAR 4 FT NEARSHORE TUE/WED AND 5 FT
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  63  55  70 /   0  10  20  40
MCO  51  68  55  78 /  10  20  20  30
MLB  58  68  62  74 /  30  40  20  40
VRB  61  70  66  77 /  40  40  30  40
LEE  48  64  51  75 /   0  10  20  30
SFB  50  66  53  73 /   0  20  20  30
ORL  51  67  55  75 /  10  20  20  30
FPR  61  71  68  78 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270206
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
906 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH OVERCAST SKIES
CONTINUING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NE OVERNIGHT AND SURGE A BIT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10PM WITH THE WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE AND THE SEA SWELLS DIMINISHING. TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE 40S NORTH TO THE 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE...BUT WILL REMOVE THE RAIN CHANCES
FOR ALL ZONES...FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR LEE COUNTY...AND REMOVE THE
HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
TERMINALS GOING IFR GENERALLY 09-14Z. THE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
AFTER 15Z TO VFR WITH GENERALLY N/NE WINDS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL BRING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES. TAMPA BAY...CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND THE
NEARSHORE ZONES CAN EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WELL OFFSHORE ARE DIMINISHING...AND WILL ALLOW THE
HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10PM.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 270206
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
906 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH OVERCAST SKIES
CONTINUING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE N/NE OVERNIGHT AND SURGE A BIT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10PM WITH THE WIND
DIRECTION CHANGE AND THE SEA SWELLS DIMINISHING. TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TRACK TO FALL INTO THE 40S NORTH TO THE 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE...BUT WILL REMOVE THE RAIN CHANCES
FOR ALL ZONES...FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR LEE COUNTY...AND REMOVE THE
HIGH SURF/RIP CURRENT HEADLINES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME
TERMINALS GOING IFR GENERALLY 09-14Z. THE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT
AFTER 15Z TO VFR WITH GENERALLY N/NE WINDS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY NW WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
EVENING. A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED IN THE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING HOURS WHICH WILL BRING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION
RANGE FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES. TAMPA BAY...CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND THE
NEARSHORE ZONES CAN EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WELL OFFSHORE ARE DIMINISHING...AND WILL ALLOW THE
HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 10PM.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KJAX 270115
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
815 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT...WITH MORE CLEARING LATE. WITH COOL ADVECTION OCCURING
THROUGH THE NIGHT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST AREA TERMINALS HAVE BECOME VFR CONDITIONS AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE
ERODED WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION. PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAMING IN FROM
THE GULF. COMBINING WITH A SCT LOW END VFR DECK AT AROUND 3500
FEET YIELDING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING. GAINESVILLE
WITH REMAIN MVFR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS TIL 02Z...THEN HAVE THE
SITUATION AS DESCRIBED AS ABOVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN 6 TO
10 MPH WITH COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...INTERIOR TERMINALS WILL
SLACKEN TO 5 MPH OR LESS. SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES N OF THE REGION
FRIDAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE NELY DIRECTION AT 9 TO 12
MPH AFTER 14Z FRIDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  60  41  55 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  39  54  44  52 /   0   0  10  30
JAX  38  58  44  58 /   0   0  10  40
SGJ  45  57  52  61 /   0   0  30  60
GNV  41  63  47  63 /   0   0  20  40
OCF  45  64  50  67 /  10   0  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/CORDERO




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270110 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
810 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO
THE NAPLES AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

THE WINDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE
SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED EARLIER THIS
EVENING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/
AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS BRINGING MAINLY LOWER CIGS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND
1500 FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS
WITHIN MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THE
IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING SCATTERED. THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  20  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 270110 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
810 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO
THE NAPLES AREA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE OVER THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BEFORE
TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD.

THE WINDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE
SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED EARLIER THIS
EVENING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/
AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS BRINGING MAINLY LOWER CIGS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND
1500 FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS
WITHIN MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THE
IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING SCATTERED. THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  20  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262257
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
557 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS BRINGING MAINLY LOWER CIGS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND
1500 FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS
WITHIN MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THE
IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING SCATTERED. THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  20  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262257
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
557 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS BRINGING MAINLY LOWER CIGS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND
1500 FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS
WITHIN MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THE
IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING SCATTERED. THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  20  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262257
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
557 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS BRINGING MAINLY LOWER CIGS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND
1500 FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS
WITHIN MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THE
IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING SCATTERED. THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  20  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262257
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
557 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS BRINGING MAINLY LOWER CIGS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND
1500 FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS
WITHIN MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THE
IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING SCATTERED. THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  20  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262257
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
557 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS BRINGING MAINLY LOWER CIGS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND
1500 FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS
WITHIN MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THE
IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING SCATTERED. THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  20  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262257
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
557 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS BRINGING MAINLY LOWER CIGS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND
1500 FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS
WITHIN MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THE
IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING SCATTERED. THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  20  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262255
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
555 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS BRINGING MAINLY LOWER CIGS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND
1500 FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS
WITHIN MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THE
IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING SCATTERED. THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  30  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  30  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262255
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
555 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS BRINGING MAINLY LOWER CIGS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND
1500 FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS
WITHIN MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THE
IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING SCATTERED. THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  30  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  30  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262255
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
555 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS BRINGING MAINLY LOWER CIGS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND
1500 FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS
WITHIN MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THE
IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING SCATTERED. THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  30  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  30  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262255
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
555 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
THIS IS BRINGING MAINLY LOWER CIGS, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES TO THE SOUTH, CIGS MAY DROP TO AROUND
1500 FT, AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO IFR THRESHOLDS. HAVE KEPT CIGS
WITHIN MVFR FOR NOW, AS THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO PUT THE
IFR IN AT THIS TIME. THE CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE BREAKING UP AND BECOMING SCATTERED. THE
WINDS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN SOME
LOCATIONS AND OTHER STATIONS WILL FOLLOW AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  30  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  30  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 262040
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT...POST-FROPA TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THE MORNING UPDATE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON... REACHING 70 OR A LITTLE ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTH.
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...MARKING THE SECONDARY
FROPA...HAS DROPPED READINGS BACK INTO THE U50S. KMLB 88D AND
CCAFS MESONET WIND DATA SHOW THIS BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG COASTAL AREAS (BUT NOT YET INLAND)...REACHING
NRN BREVARD CO WITHIN THE LAST HR.

OVERNIGHT/FRI...SECONDARY COOL FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT SAGS
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BOUNDARY BECOME BRIDGED BY DEVELOPING
NNE-NE FLOW FROM THE LARGE/STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CTRL-
ERN CONUS. SHALLOW POST FRONTAL N-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT SWLY
H85 FLOW...WHICH ACTUALLY BACKS SOME TO S-SSE BY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS/OCCASIONAL
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL BUT NOT COLD...BUT
WITH A CHILLY N-NE BREEZE. MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...SOME U40S PSBL
OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND L60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. FRI
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH L70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA DURING THE PERIOD. DEEP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERLYING SHALLOW NORTH/NORTHEAST LOFT WILL KEEP MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INDICATED 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...SIMILAR TO GFS MOS...BUT
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NAM MOS. WHILE QPF GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...DURATION OF LIGHT RAIN COULD RESULT IN NEAR 0.25 INCH TOTALS
IN FEW AREAS. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE 50S INLAND...BUT 60S
ALONG COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. WARMER SATURDAY
NIGHT...RANGING FROM NEAR 60 FAR NW INTERIOR TO MID 70S FAR SE
COAST.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
ONSHORE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AND WINDY ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND...REBOUNDING TEMPS WITH GRADUAL
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY... AND
PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE/WED...EXCEPT NEAR 80S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SMALL AREA OF HIGHER END IFR (BKN-OVC007-009) DEVELOPED
INVOF VRB-FPR A LITTLE AFTER 18Z BUT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LOCALIZED
AND TEMPORARY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
BKN015-025. TO THE NORTH...CIGS VFR BKN-OVC040-060...BUT INCREASING
COOL NRLY FLOW MAY CAUSE THESE TO LOWER TO MVFR/020-030 AFTER 00Z.
CIGS TEMPORARILY BREAKING UP IN A SMALL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF LEE-DAB
BUT EXPECT THESE TO FILL BACK IN AS CIGS NEAR OVC015 PERSIST JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THAT "SUCKER HOLE".


&&

.MARINE...AFTER COORD WITH MIA...MADE LATE CHANGE A LITTLE AFTER 1PM
TO BRIEFLY EXTEND SCA (FOR WINDS ONLY ) FOR ANOTHER 3HR (TIL 4PM)
PLAN TO LET THIS EXPIRE WITH THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. LULL IN WINDS/
SEAS TONIGHT TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH BUILDING TO NORTH TIGHTENS
LOCAL PGRAD...AND PUSHES SEAS BACK TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SATURDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...AS
SEAS QUICKLY RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. SEAS LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE
8-11 FT RANGE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINOR BEACH EROSION
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER SE BY MONDAY AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT TUESDAY AND 10-15 KT
WEDNESDAY. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY TO 5-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 7-8
FT OFFSHORE...THEN GENERALLY NEAR 4 FT NEARSHORE TUE/WED AND 5 FT
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  63  55  70 /   0  10  20  40
MCO  51  68  55  78 /  10  20  20  30
MLB  58  68  62  74 /  30  40  20  40
VRB  61  70  66  77 /  40  40  30  40
LEE  48  64  51  75 /   0  10  20  30
SFB  50  66  53  73 /   0  20  20  30
ORL  51  67  55  75 /  10  20  20  30
FPR  61  71  68  78 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....SPRATT




000
FXUS62 KMLB 262040
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT...POST-FROPA TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THE MORNING UPDATE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON... REACHING 70 OR A LITTLE ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTH.
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...MARKING THE SECONDARY
FROPA...HAS DROPPED READINGS BACK INTO THE U50S. KMLB 88D AND
CCAFS MESONET WIND DATA SHOW THIS BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG COASTAL AREAS (BUT NOT YET INLAND)...REACHING
NRN BREVARD CO WITHIN THE LAST HR.

OVERNIGHT/FRI...SECONDARY COOL FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT SAGS
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BOUNDARY BECOME BRIDGED BY DEVELOPING
NNE-NE FLOW FROM THE LARGE/STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CTRL-
ERN CONUS. SHALLOW POST FRONTAL N-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT SWLY
H85 FLOW...WHICH ACTUALLY BACKS SOME TO S-SSE BY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS/OCCASIONAL
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL BUT NOT COLD...BUT
WITH A CHILLY N-NE BREEZE. MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...SOME U40S PSBL
OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND L60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. FRI
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH L70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA DURING THE PERIOD. DEEP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERLYING SHALLOW NORTH/NORTHEAST LOFT WILL KEEP MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INDICATED 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...SIMILAR TO GFS MOS...BUT
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NAM MOS. WHILE QPF GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...DURATION OF LIGHT RAIN COULD RESULT IN NEAR 0.25 INCH TOTALS
IN FEW AREAS. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE 50S INLAND...BUT 60S
ALONG COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. WARMER SATURDAY
NIGHT...RANGING FROM NEAR 60 FAR NW INTERIOR TO MID 70S FAR SE
COAST.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
ONSHORE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AND WINDY ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND...REBOUNDING TEMPS WITH GRADUAL
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY... AND
PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE/WED...EXCEPT NEAR 80S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SMALL AREA OF HIGHER END IFR (BKN-OVC007-009) DEVELOPED
INVOF VRB-FPR A LITTLE AFTER 18Z BUT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LOCALIZED
AND TEMPORARY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
BKN015-025. TO THE NORTH...CIGS VFR BKN-OVC040-060...BUT INCREASING
COOL NRLY FLOW MAY CAUSE THESE TO LOWER TO MVFR/020-030 AFTER 00Z.
CIGS TEMPORARILY BREAKING UP IN A SMALL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF LEE-DAB
BUT EXPECT THESE TO FILL BACK IN AS CIGS NEAR OVC015 PERSIST JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THAT "SUCKER HOLE".


&&

.MARINE...AFTER COORD WITH MIA...MADE LATE CHANGE A LITTLE AFTER 1PM
TO BRIEFLY EXTEND SCA (FOR WINDS ONLY ) FOR ANOTHER 3HR (TIL 4PM)
PLAN TO LET THIS EXPIRE WITH THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. LULL IN WINDS/
SEAS TONIGHT TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH BUILDING TO NORTH TIGHTENS
LOCAL PGRAD...AND PUSHES SEAS BACK TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SATURDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...AS
SEAS QUICKLY RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. SEAS LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE
8-11 FT RANGE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINOR BEACH EROSION
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER SE BY MONDAY AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT TUESDAY AND 10-15 KT
WEDNESDAY. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY TO 5-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 7-8
FT OFFSHORE...THEN GENERALLY NEAR 4 FT NEARSHORE TUE/WED AND 5 FT
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  63  55  70 /   0  10  20  40
MCO  51  68  55  78 /  10  20  20  30
MLB  58  68  62  74 /  30  40  20  40
VRB  61  70  66  77 /  40  40  30  40
LEE  48  64  51  75 /   0  10  20  30
SFB  50  66  53  73 /   0  20  20  30
ORL  51  67  55  75 /  10  20  20  30
FPR  61  71  68  78 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....SPRATT




000
FXUS62 KMLB 262040
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT...POST-FROPA TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THE MORNING UPDATE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON... REACHING 70 OR A LITTLE ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTH.
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...MARKING THE SECONDARY
FROPA...HAS DROPPED READINGS BACK INTO THE U50S. KMLB 88D AND
CCAFS MESONET WIND DATA SHOW THIS BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG COASTAL AREAS (BUT NOT YET INLAND)...REACHING
NRN BREVARD CO WITHIN THE LAST HR.

OVERNIGHT/FRI...SECONDARY COOL FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT SAGS
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BOUNDARY BECOME BRIDGED BY DEVELOPING
NNE-NE FLOW FROM THE LARGE/STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CTRL-
ERN CONUS. SHALLOW POST FRONTAL N-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT SWLY
H85 FLOW...WHICH ACTUALLY BACKS SOME TO S-SSE BY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS/OCCASIONAL
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL BUT NOT COLD...BUT
WITH A CHILLY N-NE BREEZE. MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...SOME U40S PSBL
OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND L60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. FRI
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH L70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA DURING THE PERIOD. DEEP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERLYING SHALLOW NORTH/NORTHEAST LOFT WILL KEEP MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INDICATED 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...SIMILAR TO GFS MOS...BUT
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NAM MOS. WHILE QPF GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...DURATION OF LIGHT RAIN COULD RESULT IN NEAR 0.25 INCH TOTALS
IN FEW AREAS. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE 50S INLAND...BUT 60S
ALONG COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. WARMER SATURDAY
NIGHT...RANGING FROM NEAR 60 FAR NW INTERIOR TO MID 70S FAR SE
COAST.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
ONSHORE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AND WINDY ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND...REBOUNDING TEMPS WITH GRADUAL
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY... AND
PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE/WED...EXCEPT NEAR 80S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SMALL AREA OF HIGHER END IFR (BKN-OVC007-009) DEVELOPED
INVOF VRB-FPR A LITTLE AFTER 18Z BUT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LOCALIZED
AND TEMPORARY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
BKN015-025. TO THE NORTH...CIGS VFR BKN-OVC040-060...BUT INCREASING
COOL NRLY FLOW MAY CAUSE THESE TO LOWER TO MVFR/020-030 AFTER 00Z.
CIGS TEMPORARILY BREAKING UP IN A SMALL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF LEE-DAB
BUT EXPECT THESE TO FILL BACK IN AS CIGS NEAR OVC015 PERSIST JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THAT "SUCKER HOLE".


&&

.MARINE...AFTER COORD WITH MIA...MADE LATE CHANGE A LITTLE AFTER 1PM
TO BRIEFLY EXTEND SCA (FOR WINDS ONLY ) FOR ANOTHER 3HR (TIL 4PM)
PLAN TO LET THIS EXPIRE WITH THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. LULL IN WINDS/
SEAS TONIGHT TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH BUILDING TO NORTH TIGHTENS
LOCAL PGRAD...AND PUSHES SEAS BACK TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SATURDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...AS
SEAS QUICKLY RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. SEAS LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE
8-11 FT RANGE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINOR BEACH EROSION
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER SE BY MONDAY AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT TUESDAY AND 10-15 KT
WEDNESDAY. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY TO 5-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 7-8
FT OFFSHORE...THEN GENERALLY NEAR 4 FT NEARSHORE TUE/WED AND 5 FT
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  63  55  70 /   0  10  20  40
MCO  51  68  55  78 /  10  20  20  30
MLB  58  68  62  74 /  30  40  20  40
VRB  61  70  66  77 /  40  40  30  40
LEE  48  64  51  75 /   0  10  20  30
SFB  50  66  53  73 /   0  20  20  30
ORL  51  67  55  75 /  10  20  20  30
FPR  61  71  68  78 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....SPRATT




000
FXUS62 KMLB 262040
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT...POST-FROPA TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO CLIMB
A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN THE MORNING UPDATE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON... REACHING 70 OR A LITTLE ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTH.
WIND SHIFT ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...MARKING THE SECONDARY
FROPA...HAS DROPPED READINGS BACK INTO THE U50S. KMLB 88D AND
CCAFS MESONET WIND DATA SHOW THIS BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED EVEN
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG COASTAL AREAS (BUT NOT YET INLAND)...REACHING
NRN BREVARD CO WITHIN THE LAST HR.

OVERNIGHT/FRI...SECONDARY COOL FRONT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT SAGS
INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. BOUNDARY BECOME BRIDGED BY DEVELOPING
NNE-NE FLOW FROM THE LARGE/STRONG ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE CTRL-
ERN CONUS. SHALLOW POST FRONTAL N-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT SWLY
H85 FLOW...WHICH ACTUALLY BACKS SOME TO S-SSE BY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL AND SRN CWA SOCKED IN WITH CLOUDS/OCCASIONAL
LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. COOL BUT NOT COLD...BUT
WITH A CHILLY N-NE BREEZE. MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S...SOME U40S PSBL
OVER THE FAR NORTH...AND L60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST. FRI
MAXES MAINLY IN THE 60S...WITH L70S SOUTH.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER OVER
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA DURING THE PERIOD. DEEP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVERLYING SHALLOW NORTH/NORTHEAST LOFT WILL KEEP MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...
COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ALLOW FOR
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INDICATED 30/40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES...SIMILAR TO GFS MOS...BUT
CONSIDERABLY BELOW NAM MOS. WHILE QPF GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
LOW...DURATION OF LIGHT RAIN COULD RESULT IN NEAR 0.25 INCH TOTALS
IN FEW AREAS. MIN TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE 50S INLAND...BUT 60S
ALONG COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY NEAR
NORMAL...LOWER 70S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH. WARMER SATURDAY
NIGHT...RANGING FROM NEAR 60 FAR NW INTERIOR TO MID 70S FAR SE
COAST.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF MID
ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST COAST SUNDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
ONSHORE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE...RESULTING IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS INLAND AND WINDY ALONG THE COAST. SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD LATE THIS WEEKEND...REBOUNDING TEMPS WITH GRADUAL
DECREASE OF CLOUD COVER AND POPS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY...BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY... AND
PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TUE/WED...EXCEPT NEAR 80S ALONG
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SMALL AREA OF HIGHER END IFR (BKN-OVC007-009) DEVELOPED
INVOF VRB-FPR A LITTLE AFTER 18Z BUT APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LOCALIZED
AND TEMPORARY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE CIGS WILL REMAIN MVFR
BKN015-025. TO THE NORTH...CIGS VFR BKN-OVC040-060...BUT INCREASING
COOL NRLY FLOW MAY CAUSE THESE TO LOWER TO MVFR/020-030 AFTER 00Z.
CIGS TEMPORARILY BREAKING UP IN A SMALL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF LEE-DAB
BUT EXPECT THESE TO FILL BACK IN AS CIGS NEAR OVC015 PERSIST JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THAT "SUCKER HOLE".


&&

.MARINE...AFTER COORD WITH MIA...MADE LATE CHANGE A LITTLE AFTER 1PM
TO BRIEFLY EXTEND SCA (FOR WINDS ONLY ) FOR ANOTHER 3HR (TIL 4PM)
PLAN TO LET THIS EXPIRE WITH THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. LULL IN WINDS/
SEAS TONIGHT TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH BUILDING TO NORTH TIGHTENS
LOCAL PGRAD...AND PUSHES SEAS BACK TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS ON FRIDAY.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SATURDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY. INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 25 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS...AS
SEAS QUICKLY RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS...BUILDING TO 5-7 FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE SATURDAY. SEAS LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE
8-11 FT RANGE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MINOR BEACH EROSION
POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER SE BY MONDAY AND WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...BECOMING SOUTH AROUND 10 KT TUESDAY AND 10-15 KT
WEDNESDAY. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE MONDAY TO 5-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 7-8
FT OFFSHORE...THEN GENERALLY NEAR 4 FT NEARSHORE TUE/WED AND 5 FT
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  51  63  55  70 /   0  10  20  40
MCO  51  68  55  78 /  10  20  20  30
MLB  58  68  62  74 /  30  40  20  40
VRB  61  70  66  77 /  40  40  30  40
LEE  48  64  51  75 /   0  10  20  30
SFB  50  66  53  73 /   0  20  20  30
ORL  51  67  55  75 /  10  20  20  30
FPR  61  71  68  78 /  40  40  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....SPRATT




000
FXUS62 KJAX 262019
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO
INCREASE AFTER THIS MORNINGS DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE TREND AS COLDER
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN
SE GA AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS NE FL THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND WITH SUN BREAKING THROUGH THE ERODING LOW
CLOUD DECK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10 MPH WITH A
FEW COASTAL AREAS SEEING SOME GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY SETTLING BACK INTO COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN SE GA AND LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS NE FL.

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES N OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY THEN SHIFTS
EWD TO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR NNE WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE
NELY DIRECTION. A LONG FETCH OF NELY FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL TO
SW FEEDING CIRRUS OVER-TOP AS WELL. COOL AIRMASS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. WARMEST TEMPS SRN ZONES WITH COOL NNE WIND KEEPING
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND THE MID 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT...PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMING ENHANCED IN
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR NE FL AREAS
SE OF JAX TO GNV LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FROM GNV TO JAX BEACH SWD. NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SATURDAY...FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR MOST AREAS AND COOL TEMPS STAYING IN THE
50S I-10 NWD AND MAINLY MID 60S PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH
AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ENABLE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP WITH SOME NUMEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE S OF NASSAU COUNTY
SWD TO FLAGLER COUNTY. SAT NIGHT...WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PUSH
NE OF THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL NE TO E FLOW...ALONG WITH INVERTED
SFC TROUGHING NEAR THE COAST...WILL CONT THE THREAT OF ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOWS START TO CREEP UP AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT WILL
HOLD OFF MENTIONING ATTM. BY SUNDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND SFC
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF TO THE E AND RESULTANT FLOW WILL TURN MORE E AND
POSSIBLY SE. IN RESPONSE...WARMER TEMPS ANTICIPATED THOUGH INLAND SE
GA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MAX TEMPS AROUND 60. LESS FORCING
ARGUES FOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS
ALL ZONES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS NWD
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF THE AREA.
GA AND FL. VEERED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS
AND THEN FINALLY A WARMING TREND FROM MON THROUGH WED. RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTS EWD TUE NIGHT TO THU AS THE NEXT MID AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
INTO THE MS VALLEY. TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO POSITION
JUST W OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH LATTER MODEL ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER.
APPROACHING FRONT WILL NECESSITATE ISOLD SCATTERED SHOWERS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS WED...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST FL BY THU. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH MID WEEK...A
HINT THAT SPRING IS AROUND THE CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE SLOWLY BEGAN TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO COME UP TO VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AT DUVAL SITES AND SSI
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT LEAVING ONLY BKN
HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 MPH WITH COASTAL TERMINALS...JAX...CRG AND SSI SEEING
ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SEAS WILL COME UP BETWEEN 7 TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH RISK MOVING
TOWARD MODERATE RANGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  38  60  41  55 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  41  54  44  52 /   0   0  10  30
JAX  40  58  44  58 /   0   0  10  40
SGJ  46  57  52  61 /   0   0  30  60
GNV  42  63  47  63 /   0   0  20  40
OCF  44  64  50  67 /  10   0  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/GUILLET/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 262019
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO
INCREASE AFTER THIS MORNINGS DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE TREND AS COLDER
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN
SE GA AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS NE FL THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND WITH SUN BREAKING THROUGH THE ERODING LOW
CLOUD DECK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10 MPH WITH A
FEW COASTAL AREAS SEEING SOME GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY SETTLING BACK INTO COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN SE GA AND LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS NE FL.

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES N OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY THEN SHIFTS
EWD TO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR NNE WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE
NELY DIRECTION. A LONG FETCH OF NELY FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL TO
SW FEEDING CIRRUS OVER-TOP AS WELL. COOL AIRMASS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. WARMEST TEMPS SRN ZONES WITH COOL NNE WIND KEEPING
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND THE MID 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT...PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMING ENHANCED IN
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR NE FL AREAS
SE OF JAX TO GNV LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FROM GNV TO JAX BEACH SWD. NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SATURDAY...FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR MOST AREAS AND COOL TEMPS STAYING IN THE
50S I-10 NWD AND MAINLY MID 60S PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH
AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ENABLE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP WITH SOME NUMEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE S OF NASSAU COUNTY
SWD TO FLAGLER COUNTY. SAT NIGHT...WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PUSH
NE OF THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL NE TO E FLOW...ALONG WITH INVERTED
SFC TROUGHING NEAR THE COAST...WILL CONT THE THREAT OF ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOWS START TO CREEP UP AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT WILL
HOLD OFF MENTIONING ATTM. BY SUNDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND SFC
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF TO THE E AND RESULTANT FLOW WILL TURN MORE E AND
POSSIBLY SE. IN RESPONSE...WARMER TEMPS ANTICIPATED THOUGH INLAND SE
GA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MAX TEMPS AROUND 60. LESS FORCING
ARGUES FOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS
ALL ZONES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS NWD
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF THE AREA.
GA AND FL. VEERED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS
AND THEN FINALLY A WARMING TREND FROM MON THROUGH WED. RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTS EWD TUE NIGHT TO THU AS THE NEXT MID AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
INTO THE MS VALLEY. TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO POSITION
JUST W OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH LATTER MODEL ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER.
APPROACHING FRONT WILL NECESSITATE ISOLD SCATTERED SHOWERS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS WED...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST FL BY THU. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH MID WEEK...A
HINT THAT SPRING IS AROUND THE CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE SLOWLY BEGAN TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO COME UP TO VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AT DUVAL SITES AND SSI
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT LEAVING ONLY BKN
HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 MPH WITH COASTAL TERMINALS...JAX...CRG AND SSI SEEING
ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SEAS WILL COME UP BETWEEN 7 TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH RISK MOVING
TOWARD MODERATE RANGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  38  60  41  55 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  41  54  44  52 /   0   0  10  30
JAX  40  58  44  58 /   0   0  10  40
SGJ  46  57  52  61 /   0   0  30  60
GNV  42  63  47  63 /   0   0  20  40
OCF  44  64  50  67 /  10   0  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/GUILLET/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 262019
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...
REST OF TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO
INCREASE AFTER THIS MORNINGS DOWNWARD TEMPERATURE TREND AS COLDER
AIR ADVECTS OVER THE AREA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 50S IN
SE GA AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS NE FL THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND WITH SUN BREAKING THROUGH THE ERODING LOW
CLOUD DECK. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL AROUND 10 MPH WITH A
FEW COASTAL AREAS SEEING SOME GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA
AND LOW LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLY SETTLING BACK INTO COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S IN SE GA AND LOW TO MID 40S
ACROSS NE FL.

SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES N OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY THEN SHIFTS
EWD TO THE OHIO VALLEY...ALLOWING FOR NNE WINDS TO SHIFT TO MORE
NELY DIRECTION. A LONG FETCH OF NELY FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL TO
SW FEEDING CIRRUS OVER-TOP AS WELL. COOL AIRMASS AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL RESULT IN TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN UPPER
50S TO MID 60S. WARMEST TEMPS SRN ZONES WITH COOL NNE WIND KEEPING
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AROUND THE MID 50S. FRIDAY NIGHT...PRES GRADIENT
INCREASES WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMING ENHANCED IN
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR NE FL AREAS
SE OF JAX TO GNV LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S FROM GNV TO JAX BEACH SWD. NO FOG EXPECTED DUE TO
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

SATURDAY...FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT CONTS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR MOST AREAS AND COOL TEMPS STAYING IN THE
50S I-10 NWD AND MAINLY MID 60S PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO CONTEND WITH
AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ENABLE SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP WITH SOME NUMEROUS SHOWERS POSSIBLE S OF NASSAU COUNTY
SWD TO FLAGLER COUNTY. SAT NIGHT...WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY PUSH
NE OF THE AREA...THE LOW LEVEL NE TO E FLOW...ALONG WITH INVERTED
SFC TROUGHING NEAR THE COAST...WILL CONT THE THREAT OF ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. LOWS START TO CREEP UP AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
HIGHER DEWPOINTS SUGGEST SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT WILL
HOLD OFF MENTIONING ATTM. BY SUNDAY...500 MB HEIGHTS RISE AND SFC
HIGH PRES MOVES OFF TO THE E AND RESULTANT FLOW WILL TURN MORE E AND
POSSIBLY SE. IN RESPONSE...WARMER TEMPS ANTICIPATED THOUGH INLAND SE
GA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MAX TEMPS AROUND 60. LESS FORCING
ARGUES FOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES BUT WILL MAINTAIN ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS
ALL ZONES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS NWD
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SFC HIGH PRES MOVING WELL E OF THE AREA.
GA AND FL. VEERED FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS
AND THEN FINALLY A WARMING TREND FROM MON THROUGH WED. RIDGE ALOFT
SHIFTS EWD TUE NIGHT TO THU AS THE NEXT MID AND UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
INTO THE MS VALLEY. TRAILING SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO POSITION
JUST W OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...THOUGH THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF WITH LATTER MODEL ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER.
APPROACHING FRONT WILL NECESSITATE ISOLD SCATTERED SHOWERS AT INLAND
LOCATIONS WED...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST FL BY THU. DAYTIME
TEMPS WILL RISE TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 THROUGH MID WEEK...A
HINT THAT SPRING IS AROUND THE CORNER.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUD DECKS HAVE SLOWLY BEGAN TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO COME UP TO VFR CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS WINDS SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP AT DUVAL SITES AND SSI
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT AS LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT LEAVING ONLY BKN
HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 MPH WITH COASTAL TERMINALS...JAX...CRG AND SSI SEEING
ISOLATED GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL FOLLOW THE DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 15 KNOTS IN THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS WHICH
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
ONSHORE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH BUILDS TO OUR NORTH. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. SEAS WILL COME UP BETWEEN 7 TO 10 FEET IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WITH RISK MOVING
TOWARD MODERATE RANGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  38  60  41  55 /   0   0  10  20
SSI  41  54  44  52 /   0   0  10  30
JAX  40  58  44  58 /   0   0  10  40
SGJ  46  57  52  61 /   0   0  30  60
GNV  42  63  47  63 /   0   0  20  40
OCF  44  64  50  67 /  10   0  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/GUILLET/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KTBW 262002
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
A COLD FRONT NOW NEARING LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID MS/OH VALLEYS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE NORTH TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. A
DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRIDING THE LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN
(POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES ON FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH INTO
CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHILE A STRONG DOME OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BE POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...REDUCING THE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HOLD AT
NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY MID WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING FROM THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BY THURSDAY...THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE NATURE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS OR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE HANDLED
WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS OVERALL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER
INTO THE NORTH AFTER 02Z...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH. SCA
WILL EXPIRE AT 4PM EST AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ZONES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL BRING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE
FOR OFFSHORE ZONES. TAMPA BAY...CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND THE NEARSHORE
ZONES CAN EXPECT WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WELL OFFSHORE ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENT ADVISORIES UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO ALLOW
FOR ANY LINGERING SWELLS TO REACH THE COAST. RIP CURRENT/HIGH
SURF THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  50  67  57  73 /   0  10  40  40
FMY  57  71  61  80 /  30  30  30  50
GIF  52  68  56  74 /   0  20  40  50
SRQ  52  68  58  74 /   0  20  40  40
BKV  45  66  53  72 /   0  10  40  50
SPG  54  66  58  72 /   0  20  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 262002
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
A COLD FRONT NOW NEARING LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID MS/OH VALLEYS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE NORTH TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. A
DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRIDING THE LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN
(POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES ON FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH INTO
CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHILE A STRONG DOME OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BE POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...REDUCING THE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HOLD AT
NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY MID WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING FROM THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BY THURSDAY...THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE NATURE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS OR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE HANDLED
WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS OVERALL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER
INTO THE NORTH AFTER 02Z...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH. SCA
WILL EXPIRE AT 4PM EST AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ZONES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL BRING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE
FOR OFFSHORE ZONES. TAMPA BAY...CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND THE NEARSHORE
ZONES CAN EXPECT WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WELL OFFSHORE ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENT ADVISORIES UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO ALLOW
FOR ANY LINGERING SWELLS TO REACH THE COAST. RIP CURRENT/HIGH
SURF THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  50  67  57  73 /   0  10  40  40
FMY  57  71  61  80 /  30  30  30  50
GIF  52  68  56  74 /   0  20  40  50
SRQ  52  68  58  74 /   0  20  40  40
BKV  45  66  53  72 /   0  10  40  50
SPG  54  66  58  72 /   0  20  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN






000
FXUS62 KTBW 262002
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
A COLD FRONT NOW NEARING LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID MS/OH VALLEYS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE NORTH TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. A
DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRIDING THE LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN
(POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES ON FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH INTO
CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHILE A STRONG DOME OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BE POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...REDUCING THE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HOLD AT
NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY MID WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING FROM THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BY THURSDAY...THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE NATURE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS OR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE HANDLED
WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS OVERALL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER
INTO THE NORTH AFTER 02Z...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH. SCA
WILL EXPIRE AT 4PM EST AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ZONES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL BRING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE
FOR OFFSHORE ZONES. TAMPA BAY...CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND THE NEARSHORE
ZONES CAN EXPECT WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WELL OFFSHORE ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENT ADVISORIES UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO ALLOW
FOR ANY LINGERING SWELLS TO REACH THE COAST. RIP CURRENT/HIGH
SURF THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  50  67  57  73 /   0  10  40  40
FMY  57  71  61  80 /  30  30  30  50
GIF  52  68  56  74 /   0  20  40  50
SRQ  52  68  58  74 /   0  20  40  40
BKV  45  66  53  72 /   0  10  40  50
SPG  54  66  58  72 /   0  20  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 262002
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
302 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - FRIDAY)...
A COLD FRONT NOW NEARING LAKE OKEECHOBEE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SINK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE STALLING
OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID MS/OH VALLEYS. AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE NORTH TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. A
DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERRIDING THE LOW
LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN
(POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE) ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ZONES ON FRIDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWS
TONIGHT FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES...AND MID TO UPPER 50S
SOUTH. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH INTO
CENTRAL ZONES...AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL COVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AT THE
START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WHILE A STRONG DOME OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST. THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BE POSITIONED WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO NEAR TO A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE TO BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH THE START OF THE WORKWEEK...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...REDUCING THE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL HOLD AT
NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BY MID WEEK...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EJECTING FROM THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES WITH A SURFACE LOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BY THURSDAY...THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE NATURE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SHOWERS OR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE HANDLED
WITH VCSH FOR NOW AS OVERALL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER
INTO THE NORTH AFTER 02Z...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH. SCA
WILL EXPIRE AT 4PM EST AS WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 20 KNOTS ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE ZONES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE 10-15
KNOT RANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE
IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL BRING WINDS INTO THE EXERCISE CAUTION RANGE
FOR OFFSHORE ZONES. TAMPA BAY...CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND THE NEARSHORE
ZONES CAN EXPECT WINDS IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT.

SEAS WELL OFFSHORE ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BUT WILL KEEP THE HIGH
SURF AND RIP CURRENT ADVISORIES UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO ALLOW
FOR ANY LINGERING SWELLS TO REACH THE COAST. RIP CURRENT/HIGH
SURF THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  50  67  57  73 /   0  10  40  40
FMY  57  71  61  80 /  30  30  30  50
GIF  52  68  56  74 /   0  20  40  50
SRQ  52  68  58  74 /   0  20  40  40
BKV  45  66  53  72 /   0  10  40  50
SPG  54  66  58  72 /   0  20  40  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN






000
FXUS62 KMFL 261938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  30  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  30  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGGING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA
OR THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS EVENING. AS THE FRONT OOZES INTO THE
AREA AND THE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION IN THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THINS, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
DESTABILIZATION OCCUR. HOWEVER, THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SUGGESTS TWO
LOW LEVEL INVERSIONS THAT DESTABILIZATION MUST OVERCOME SO
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IS LACKING BUT WILL NOT LIMIT THE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

THE FRONT WILL STALL THIS EVENING WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY RAPIDLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRONT TO BEGIN
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH WITH A MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINING
IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING ALSO OCCURRING. SO WILL
KEEP THE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL A DRYING TREND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AMPLIFYING A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
CONTINUE A WARM AND DRY PERIOD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE GRADIENT HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN. AS
THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING, THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN
MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  76  69  82 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  77  70  80 /  30  40  20  50
MIAMI            67  78  69  82 /  30  30  20  40
NAPLES           59  74  61  84 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KTAE 261929
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
229 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure has moved in behind a departing low. However,
residual low level moisture has become trapped by a strong
inversion. Therefore, cloud cover will likely persist until
midnight for most of the CWA and until early morning for eastern
portions of the CWA. Lows will range from the lower 30s in the
northwest to the upper 30s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The dominant weather feature over the next few days will be the
strong and sprawling area of high pressure spreading from the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Expect to see a modest warmup on
Friday with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the northwest to
the mid 60s in the southeast. Saturday will be trickier as the
surface high reaches the Mid-Atlantic states and wedges down the
lee of the Appalachians. While the southern portions of the area
will likely reach the 60s Saturday afternoon, portions of
southwest and south central Georgia will struggle into the 50s
with cloudy skies and cool northeasterly flow.

Farther south, rain chances will increase over the southeastern
Big Bend as yesterdays front begins to creep back to the north as
a warm front.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The wedge of high pressure should break down by Sunday afternoon,
allowing for temperatures to return to the 60s area wide. However
scattered showers will be possible as developing return flow rides
up and over the remaining wedge and a weak front approaches from
the west.

Scattered showers will be possible on Monday into Monday night as
well, as the front approaches the forecast area and stalls. A
building ridge over the gulf will keep temperatures on a warming
trend through the first half of the week, with afternoon
temperatures well into the 70s Monday and Tuesday. Another front
is forecast to approach the region by the middle of the week, with
another chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] As an area of low pressure moves away from
the area, residual low level moisture is expected to allow for low
clouds to persist through much of the period with MVFR ceilings.
Clouds will likely lift to VFR late this afternoon. Winds will be
light and northerly.

&&

.Marine...
Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions near or above Small Craft
Advisory levels beginning tonight through early Sunday. Conditions
will improve for Sunday into early next week as the area of high
pressure weakens.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No Fire Weather concerns are expected for the next several days
despite a brief intrusion of significantly drier air on Friday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain yesterday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   37  61  43  63  50 /  10   0  10  10  30
Panama City   39  59  44  61  50 /   0   0  10  20  20
Dothan        34  56  39  54  41 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        35  59  39  51  43 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      39  61  43  58  48 /  10   0  10  10  30
Cross City    41  64  44  64  52 /  10   0  10  40  30
Apalachicola  42  59  47  62  52 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
     for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 261929
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
229 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure has moved in behind a departing low. However,
residual low level moisture has become trapped by a strong
inversion. Therefore, cloud cover will likely persist until
midnight for most of the CWA and until early morning for eastern
portions of the CWA. Lows will range from the lower 30s in the
northwest to the upper 30s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The dominant weather feature over the next few days will be the
strong and sprawling area of high pressure spreading from the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Expect to see a modest warmup on
Friday with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the northwest to
the mid 60s in the southeast. Saturday will be trickier as the
surface high reaches the Mid-Atlantic states and wedges down the
lee of the Appalachians. While the southern portions of the area
will likely reach the 60s Saturday afternoon, portions of
southwest and south central Georgia will struggle into the 50s
with cloudy skies and cool northeasterly flow.

Farther south, rain chances will increase over the southeastern
Big Bend as yesterdays front begins to creep back to the north as
a warm front.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The wedge of high pressure should break down by Sunday afternoon,
allowing for temperatures to return to the 60s area wide. However
scattered showers will be possible as developing return flow rides
up and over the remaining wedge and a weak front approaches from
the west.

Scattered showers will be possible on Monday into Monday night as
well, as the front approaches the forecast area and stalls. A
building ridge over the gulf will keep temperatures on a warming
trend through the first half of the week, with afternoon
temperatures well into the 70s Monday and Tuesday. Another front
is forecast to approach the region by the middle of the week, with
another chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] As an area of low pressure moves away from
the area, residual low level moisture is expected to allow for low
clouds to persist through much of the period with MVFR ceilings.
Clouds will likely lift to VFR late this afternoon. Winds will be
light and northerly.

&&

.Marine...
Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions near or above Small Craft
Advisory levels beginning tonight through early Sunday. Conditions
will improve for Sunday into early next week as the area of high
pressure weakens.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No Fire Weather concerns are expected for the next several days
despite a brief intrusion of significantly drier air on Friday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain yesterday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   37  61  43  63  50 /  10   0  10  10  30
Panama City   39  59  44  61  50 /   0   0  10  20  20
Dothan        34  56  39  54  41 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        35  59  39  51  43 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      39  61  43  58  48 /  10   0  10  10  30
Cross City    41  64  44  64  52 /  10   0  10  40  30
Apalachicola  42  59  47  62  52 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
     for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 261929
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
229 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure has moved in behind a departing low. However,
residual low level moisture has become trapped by a strong
inversion. Therefore, cloud cover will likely persist until
midnight for most of the CWA and until early morning for eastern
portions of the CWA. Lows will range from the lower 30s in the
northwest to the upper 30s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The dominant weather feature over the next few days will be the
strong and sprawling area of high pressure spreading from the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Expect to see a modest warmup on
Friday with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the northwest to
the mid 60s in the southeast. Saturday will be trickier as the
surface high reaches the Mid-Atlantic states and wedges down the
lee of the Appalachians. While the southern portions of the area
will likely reach the 60s Saturday afternoon, portions of
southwest and south central Georgia will struggle into the 50s
with cloudy skies and cool northeasterly flow.

Farther south, rain chances will increase over the southeastern
Big Bend as yesterdays front begins to creep back to the north as
a warm front.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The wedge of high pressure should break down by Sunday afternoon,
allowing for temperatures to return to the 60s area wide. However
scattered showers will be possible as developing return flow rides
up and over the remaining wedge and a weak front approaches from
the west.

Scattered showers will be possible on Monday into Monday night as
well, as the front approaches the forecast area and stalls. A
building ridge over the gulf will keep temperatures on a warming
trend through the first half of the week, with afternoon
temperatures well into the 70s Monday and Tuesday. Another front
is forecast to approach the region by the middle of the week, with
another chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] As an area of low pressure moves away from
the area, residual low level moisture is expected to allow for low
clouds to persist through much of the period with MVFR ceilings.
Clouds will likely lift to VFR late this afternoon. Winds will be
light and northerly.

&&

.Marine...
Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions near or above Small Craft
Advisory levels beginning tonight through early Sunday. Conditions
will improve for Sunday into early next week as the area of high
pressure weakens.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No Fire Weather concerns are expected for the next several days
despite a brief intrusion of significantly drier air on Friday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain yesterday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   37  61  43  63  50 /  10   0  10  10  30
Panama City   39  59  44  61  50 /   0   0  10  20  20
Dothan        34  56  39  54  41 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        35  59  39  51  43 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      39  61  43  58  48 /  10   0  10  10  30
Cross City    41  64  44  64  52 /  10   0  10  40  30
Apalachicola  42  59  47  62  52 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
     for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








000
FXUS62 KTAE 261929
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
229 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
High pressure has moved in behind a departing low. However,
residual low level moisture has become trapped by a strong
inversion. Therefore, cloud cover will likely persist until
midnight for most of the CWA and until early morning for eastern
portions of the CWA. Lows will range from the lower 30s in the
northwest to the upper 30s in the southeast.

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The dominant weather feature over the next few days will be the
strong and sprawling area of high pressure spreading from the
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Expect to see a modest warmup on
Friday with highs ranging from the mid 50s in the northwest to
the mid 60s in the southeast. Saturday will be trickier as the
surface high reaches the Mid-Atlantic states and wedges down the
lee of the Appalachians. While the southern portions of the area
will likely reach the 60s Saturday afternoon, portions of
southwest and south central Georgia will struggle into the 50s
with cloudy skies and cool northeasterly flow.

Farther south, rain chances will increase over the southeastern
Big Bend as yesterdays front begins to creep back to the north as
a warm front.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
The wedge of high pressure should break down by Sunday afternoon,
allowing for temperatures to return to the 60s area wide. However
scattered showers will be possible as developing return flow rides
up and over the remaining wedge and a weak front approaches from
the west.

Scattered showers will be possible on Monday into Monday night as
well, as the front approaches the forecast area and stalls. A
building ridge over the gulf will keep temperatures on a warming
trend through the first half of the week, with afternoon
temperatures well into the 70s Monday and Tuesday. Another front
is forecast to approach the region by the middle of the week, with
another chance of showers and a few thunderstorms.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] As an area of low pressure moves away from
the area, residual low level moisture is expected to allow for low
clouds to persist through much of the period with MVFR ceilings.
Clouds will likely lift to VFR late this afternoon. Winds will be
light and northerly.

&&

.Marine...
Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions near or above Small Craft
Advisory levels beginning tonight through early Sunday. Conditions
will improve for Sunday into early next week as the area of high
pressure weakens.

&&

.Fire Weather...
No Fire Weather concerns are expected for the next several days
despite a brief intrusion of significantly drier air on Friday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain yesterday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   37  61  43  63  50 /  10   0  10  10  30
Panama City   39  59  44  61  50 /   0   0  10  20  20
Dothan        34  56  39  54  41 /  10   0  10  10  20
Albany        35  59  39  51  43 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      39  61  43  58  48 /  10   0  10  10  30
Cross City    41  64  44  64  52 /  10   0  10  40  30
Apalachicola  42  59  47  62  52 /   0   0  10  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Friday
     for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON








000
FXUS62 KKEY 261917
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES
ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
HIGHEST TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
VIRGINIA SUNDAY. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY...BEFORE
RETREATING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY. NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED IN
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS. NO ADVISORIES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATORS TONIGHT WILL BE A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS
MOVING OVER EYW AND MTH. TIMING FOR THESE SHOWERS IS A BEST GUESS AT
THE MOMENT AND WILL BE AMENDED AS THE SHOWERS APPROACH THE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT QUICKLY AS THE LINE ARRIVES.
ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS...A DENSE CLOUD SHIELD
WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING IN PERIODS OF
IFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL LIFR CEILINGS...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1967...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 49 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
FEBRUARY 26TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 48 YEARS LATER.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  70 77 71 80 / 40 20 20 20
MARATHON  71 78 71 81 / 40 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION......................MP

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261820
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD TONIGHT. MODERATE SW FLOW
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH IN ITS WAKE (NORTHERLY WINDS BY 06Z EAST
COAST TERMINALS...LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT APF). ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
VCSH. A STABLE STRATUS DECK IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TOWARD THE NNE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. /AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

UPDATE...
NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS MORNING IN THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BUT
WILL NOT SCALE BACK JUST YET WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LINE OF
STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF IS WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST WITH LARGE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD
STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF ARE QUITE COOL AT THIS TIME WHICH HELPS
EXPLAIN WHY THE CONVECTION IS HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING ITSELF.
THE LARGE CLOUD COVER IS HAMPERING SURFACE HEATING OVER THE
MAINLAND WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA
BUT HEAVY OVERCAST SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD OFF IN CUTTING
BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR NOW SINCE IF THERE IS SOME
THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO. FOR THE MARINE ZONES, EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH 18Z AS SETTLEMENT POINT STILL GETTING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO LESSEN.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THAT STARTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE
INTERRUPTED BY AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER ON
TODAY. A FEW PERIODS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
APF THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY OR AROUND NOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS AT APF. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THIS LINE WEAKENING AND BREAKING UP
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE EAST COAST SHRA
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

/JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CEILINGS SEEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC STILL KEEPS SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A GENERAL THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
FORCING ALBEIT WEAK SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST
OVERRUNNING FLOW CONTINUING.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.

MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  77  69  80 /  40  40  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  66  77  69  79 /  30  30  30  40
MIAMI            66  79  68  81 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           62  77  61  83 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261535
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1035 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH AFFECTED THE AREA LAST
NIGHT HAS NOW PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CONTINUED TO DROP AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA AND WILL PLATEAU BEFORE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO RISE LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS SE GA AND NEAR
THE FL/GA BORDER WITH 60S EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHEASTERN FL.


&&

.AVIATION...PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT THE
DUVAL TERMINALS. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3000-3500 FT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...REMAINING NEAR 10 MPH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AS SEAS AND WINDS HAVE QUICKLY DECREASED AND SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. SCEC CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  38  59  39 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  55  43  54  45 /  10   0   0  10
JAX  60  43  58  44 /  20   0   0  10
SGJ  63  47  57  51 /  40   0   0  20
GNV  65  44  63  46 /  20   0   0  10
OCF  66  46  65  49 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/GUILLET/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KJAX 261535
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1035 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH AFFECTED THE AREA LAST
NIGHT HAS NOW PUSHED SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH
IS NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CONTINUED TO DROP AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS COLD AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA AND WILL PLATEAU BEFORE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO RISE LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S ACROSS SE GA AND NEAR
THE FL/GA BORDER WITH 60S EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHEASTERN FL.


&&

.AVIATION...PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT THE
DUVAL TERMINALS. A FEW BREAKS IN THE LOW CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3000-3500 FT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...REMAINING NEAR 10 MPH THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
AS SEAS AND WINDS HAVE QUICKLY DECREASED AND SHIFTED TO THE
NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. SCEC CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  38  59  39 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  55  43  54  45 /  10   0   0  10
JAX  60  43  58  44 /  20   0   0  10
SGJ  63  47  57  51 /  40   0   0  20
GNV  65  44  63  46 /  20   0   0  10
OCF  66  46  65  49 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/GUILLET/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261525
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...TURNING COOLER WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH...

CURRENT...LEAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING INTO THE LAKE OKEE AND
TREASURE COAST REGIONS...WHILE A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONTAL BDRY
HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AND IS APPROACHING MARION/PUTNAM
AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...TEMPS ARE IN THE L-M70S
...WITH L-M60S TO THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF THE
FRONT IN THE 50S AND UPPER 40S.

REST OF TODAY...BOTH BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SWD TODAY..
WITH SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OOZING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
UNDERCUTTING LOW-MID LEVEL SW FLOW. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER
CLOUDY...COOLER AND DAMP DAY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...
WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER...AND WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A STRAY TS.

CURRENT GRIDS ARE BEING UPDATED TO SHOW ONGOING CHANGES IN THE 0-6H
TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWERED (SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH-CTRL)
WHILE THE REFERENCED PRE-FRONTAL HIGH TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL COOLDOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR MULTI-LAYERED BTWN BKN040-080 AND MVFR
BKN015-025 NEAR/BEHIND INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD LOWER
END MVFR TO IFR OVC010-015 NEAR ASCD WITH THE 2ND FRONT NEAR/NORTH
OF KBKV-KFIN (BROOKSVILLE-BUNNELL) WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING IN PLAY
EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR TO LOWER END VFR.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE BEHIND INITIAL FRONTAL PUSH
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SO SO AS SECONDARY BOUNDARY REACHES THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. MADE EARLY UPDATE TO REMOVE SCA FOR WINDS OVER
THE 0-20NM LEGS...AND WILL DO LIKEWISE WHEN THE SCA EXPIRES FOR THE
20-60NM LEGS AT 1 PM.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SPRATT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

FRI-SAT...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD. STOUT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
UPGLIDE IN TANDEM WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...MAINLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION OUR WINDS ONSHORE. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB AND CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO EXPECTED MONDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO MID WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MODERATED BY THE CHILLY ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL TRAVERSE MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. KVRB-KSUA SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LINE...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAST
MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. THEN AS
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNING NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.

FRI-SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH SEAS OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO
BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  46  62  52 /  60  10  10  30
MCO  70  51  67  53 /  60  10  20  30
MLB  73  53  67  59 /  70  30  30  30
VRB  78  58  69  61 /  70  50  30  30
LEE  67  49  66  50 /  50  10  10  30
SFB  68  47  65  51 /  60  10  20  30
ORL  69  49  66  52 /  60  10  20  30
FPR  79  57  70  62 /  70  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261525
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...TURNING COOLER WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH...

CURRENT...LEAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHING INTO THE LAKE OKEE AND
TREASURE COAST REGIONS...WHILE A SECONDARY REINFORCING FRONTAL BDRY
HAS REACHED THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AND IS APPROACHING MARION/PUTNAM
AND FLAGLER COUNTIES. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...TEMPS ARE IN THE L-M70S
...WITH L-M60S TO THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS ARE NORTH OF THE
FRONT IN THE 50S AND UPPER 40S.

REST OF TODAY...BOTH BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SWD TODAY..
WITH SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS OOZING IN FROM THE NORTH AND
UNDERCUTTING LOW-MID LEVEL SW FLOW. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR A RATHER
CLOUDY...COOLER AND DAMP DAY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...
WHERE TEMPS WILL BE WARMER...AND WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A STRAY TS.

CURRENT GRIDS ARE BEING UPDATED TO SHOW ONGOING CHANGES IN THE 0-6H
TIME FRAME. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWERED (SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH-CTRL)
WHILE THE REFERENCED PRE-FRONTAL HIGH TEMPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL COOLDOWN.

&&

.AVIATION...A MIX OF VFR MULTI-LAYERED BTWN BKN040-080 AND MVFR
BKN015-025 NEAR/BEHIND INITIAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WIDESPREAD LOWER
END MVFR TO IFR OVC010-015 NEAR ASCD WITH THE 2ND FRONT NEAR/NORTH
OF KBKV-KFIN (BROOKSVILLE-BUNNELL) WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING IN PLAY
EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN PRIMARILY MVFR TO LOWER END VFR.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE STARTING TO DECREASE BEHIND INITIAL FRONTAL PUSH
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SO SO AS SECONDARY BOUNDARY REACHES THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. MADE EARLY UPDATE TO REMOVE SCA FOR WINDS OVER
THE 0-20NM LEGS...AND WILL DO LIKEWISE WHEN THE SCA EXPIRES FOR THE
20-60NM LEGS AT 1 PM.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...SPRATT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

FRI-SAT...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD. STOUT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
UPGLIDE IN TANDEM WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...MAINLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION OUR WINDS ONSHORE. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB AND CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO EXPECTED MONDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO MID WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MODERATED BY THE CHILLY ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL TRAVERSE MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. KVRB-KSUA SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LINE...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAST
MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. THEN AS
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNING NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.

FRI-SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH SEAS OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO
BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  46  62  52 /  60  10  10  30
MCO  70  51  67  53 /  60  10  20  30
MLB  73  53  67  59 /  70  30  30  30
VRB  78  58  69  61 /  70  50  30  30
LEE  67  49  66  50 /  50  10  10  30
SFB  68  47  65  51 /  60  10  20  30
ORL  69  49  66  52 /  60  10  20  30
FPR  79  57  70  62 /  70  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON FROM FLAGLER
     BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KKEY 261523
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1025 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST
ABOVE ONE INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET THIS EVENING...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE
HALF OF AN INCH...WHICH IS QUITE MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DESPITE THIS ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...LACK OF
AN APPARENT CONVECTIVE TRIGGER SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT DUE TO
SUSTAINED NORTH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SUSTAINED NORTH
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT EYW AND MTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND DECREASE TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1877...1.20 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON FEBRUARY 26TH...A RECORD WHICH
STILL STANDS 138 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/AVIATION/DIGITAL...BS
DATA COLLECTION...............................CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261523
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1025 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST
ABOVE ONE INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
BY SUNSET THIS EVENING...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE
HALF OF AN INCH...WHICH IS QUITE MOIST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DESPITE THIS ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...LACK OF
AN APPARENT CONVECTIVE TRIGGER SHOULD LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT DUE TO
SUSTAINED NORTH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SUSTAINED NORTH
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY INTO TONIGHT. MVFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT EYW AND MTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL SHIFT TO NORTH AND DECREASE TO
NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1877...1.20 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON FEBRUARY 26TH...A RECORD WHICH
STILL STANDS 138 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/AVIATION/DIGITAL...BS
DATA COLLECTION...............................CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 261521
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1021 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As a strong area of low pressure departs the region today, high
pressure will build in its wake. Residual low level moisture is
expected to keep conditions mostly cloudy through the day. Highs
will range from the lower 50s across the northwest to the lower 60s
across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]...

As an area of low pressure moves away from the area, residual low
level moisture is expected to allow for low clouds to persist
through much of the period with MVFR ceilings.

&&

.Marine...

With 14Z buoy and tower observations still indicating advisory level
seas as high as 10 feet about 60NM offshore, the Small Craft
Advisory was extended until 18Z for the outer waters. Winds have
diminished below SCA criteria. SCEC level winds will likely return
tonight with breezy northeast to east winds persisting into the
weekend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [310 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The trend over the short term period will be a gradually building
ridge aloft (500mb heights increase 130m), while the area remains
situated on the southern periphery of an east coast surface high
pressure. This will keep the weather mostly dry but with cooler-
than-normal temperatures. However, it does appear most locations
will avoid overnight freezes. Small rain chances return on
Saturday as a few rain showers will be possible in the southeast
half of the area as return flow and low-mid level moisture
increase.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

By next week, the ridge aloft should be firmly established over
the Southeast with the east coast surface ridge eroding. This will
set up more of a southerly component to the return flow and allow
temperatures to finally increase. Depending on eventual cloud
cover, a few locations could hit the 80 degree mark early next
week. The forecast calls for mostly mid-upper 70s in the Monday to
Wednesday timeframe right now. Some small rain chances are in the
forecast as models do generate some light QPF, however the primary
QG forcing is currently expected to remain to our north and west.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

A large swath of 1-2 inches of rain fell across the area. For the
most part, rivers will remain below minor flood stage, although
several points will reach action stage. One exception may be the
Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson, which could reach minor flood stage
this weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  37  61  40  63 /  10  10   0  10  20
Panama City   55  39  57  43  61 /  10   0   0  10  20
Dothan        51  34  54  36  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
Albany        53  35  56  37  56 /  10  10   0  10  20
Valdosta      56  39  60  41  60 /  10  10   0  10  30
Cross City    61  41  64  45  66 /  10  10  10  10  40
Apalachicola  57  42  59  47  63 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 261521
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1021 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As a strong area of low pressure departs the region today, high
pressure will build in its wake. Residual low level moisture is
expected to keep conditions mostly cloudy through the day. Highs
will range from the lower 50s across the northwest to the lower 60s
across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]...

As an area of low pressure moves away from the area, residual low
level moisture is expected to allow for low clouds to persist
through much of the period with MVFR ceilings.

&&

.Marine...

With 14Z buoy and tower observations still indicating advisory level
seas as high as 10 feet about 60NM offshore, the Small Craft
Advisory was extended until 18Z for the outer waters. Winds have
diminished below SCA criteria. SCEC level winds will likely return
tonight with breezy northeast to east winds persisting into the
weekend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [310 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The trend over the short term period will be a gradually building
ridge aloft (500mb heights increase 130m), while the area remains
situated on the southern periphery of an east coast surface high
pressure. This will keep the weather mostly dry but with cooler-
than-normal temperatures. However, it does appear most locations
will avoid overnight freezes. Small rain chances return on
Saturday as a few rain showers will be possible in the southeast
half of the area as return flow and low-mid level moisture
increase.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

By next week, the ridge aloft should be firmly established over
the Southeast with the east coast surface ridge eroding. This will
set up more of a southerly component to the return flow and allow
temperatures to finally increase. Depending on eventual cloud
cover, a few locations could hit the 80 degree mark early next
week. The forecast calls for mostly mid-upper 70s in the Monday to
Wednesday timeframe right now. Some small rain chances are in the
forecast as models do generate some light QPF, however the primary
QG forcing is currently expected to remain to our north and west.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

A large swath of 1-2 inches of rain fell across the area. For the
most part, rivers will remain below minor flood stage, although
several points will reach action stage. One exception may be the
Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson, which could reach minor flood stage
this weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  37  61  40  63 /  10  10   0  10  20
Panama City   55  39  57  43  61 /  10   0   0  10  20
Dothan        51  34  54  36  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
Albany        53  35  56  37  56 /  10  10   0  10  20
Valdosta      56  39  60  41  60 /  10  10   0  10  30
Cross City    61  41  64  45  66 /  10  10  10  10  40
Apalachicola  57  42  59  47  63 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KMFL 261506
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1006 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS MORNING IN THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BUT
WILL NOT SCALE BACK JUST YET WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LINE OF
STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF IS WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST WITH LARGE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD
STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF ARE QUITE COOL AT THIS TIME WHICH HELPS
EXPLAIN WHY THE CONVECTION IS HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING ITSELF.
THE LARGE CLOUD COVER IS HAMPERING SURFACE HEATING OVER THE
MAINLAND WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA
BUT HEAVY OVERCAST SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD OFF IN CUTTING
BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR NOW SINCE IF THERE IS SOME
THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO. FOR THE MARINE ZONES, EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH 18Z AS SETTLEMENT POINT STILL GETTING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO LESSEN.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THAT STARTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE
INTERRUPTED BY AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER ON
TODAY. A FEW PERIODS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
APF THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY OR AROUND NOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS AT APF. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THIS LINE WEAKENING AND BREAKING UP
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE EAST COAST SHRA
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

/JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CEILINGS SEEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC STILL KEEPS SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A GENERAL THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
FORCING ALBEIT WEAK SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST
OVERRUNNING FLOW CONTINUING.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.

MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  61  77  69 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  66  77  69 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           79  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261506
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1006 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS MORNING IN THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BUT
WILL NOT SCALE BACK JUST YET WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LINE OF
STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF IS WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST WITH LARGE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD
STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF ARE QUITE COOL AT THIS TIME WHICH HELPS
EXPLAIN WHY THE CONVECTION IS HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING ITSELF.
THE LARGE CLOUD COVER IS HAMPERING SURFACE HEATING OVER THE
MAINLAND WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA
BUT HEAVY OVERCAST SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD OFF IN CUTTING
BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR NOW SINCE IF THERE IS SOME
THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO. FOR THE MARINE ZONES, EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH 18Z AS SETTLEMENT POINT STILL GETTING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO LESSEN.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THAT STARTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE
INTERRUPTED BY AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER ON
TODAY. A FEW PERIODS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
APF THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY OR AROUND NOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS AT APF. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THIS LINE WEAKENING AND BREAKING UP
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE EAST COAST SHRA
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

/JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CEILINGS SEEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC STILL KEEPS SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A GENERAL THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
FORCING ALBEIT WEAK SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST
OVERRUNNING FLOW CONTINUING.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.

MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  61  77  69 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  66  77  69 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           79  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261506
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1006 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS MORNING IN THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BUT
WILL NOT SCALE BACK JUST YET WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LINE OF
STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF IS WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST WITH LARGE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD
STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF ARE QUITE COOL AT THIS TIME WHICH HELPS
EXPLAIN WHY THE CONVECTION IS HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING ITSELF.
THE LARGE CLOUD COVER IS HAMPERING SURFACE HEATING OVER THE
MAINLAND WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA
BUT HEAVY OVERCAST SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD OFF IN CUTTING
BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR NOW SINCE IF THERE IS SOME
THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO. FOR THE MARINE ZONES, EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH 18Z AS SETTLEMENT POINT STILL GETTING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO LESSEN.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THAT STARTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE
INTERRUPTED BY AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER ON
TODAY. A FEW PERIODS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
APF THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY OR AROUND NOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS AT APF. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THIS LINE WEAKENING AND BREAKING UP
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE EAST COAST SHRA
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

/JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CEILINGS SEEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC STILL KEEPS SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A GENERAL THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
FORCING ALBEIT WEAK SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST
OVERRUNNING FLOW CONTINUING.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.

MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  61  77  69 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  66  77  69 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           79  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261506
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1006 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THIS MORNING IN THE THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BUT
WILL NOT SCALE BACK JUST YET WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. THE LINE OF
STORMS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF IS WEAKENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST WITH LARGE DEBRIS CLOUD FIELD
STREAMING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF ARE QUITE COOL AT THIS TIME WHICH HELPS
EXPLAIN WHY THE CONVECTION IS HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING ITSELF.
THE LARGE CLOUD COVER IS HAMPERING SURFACE HEATING OVER THE
MAINLAND WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA
BUT HEAVY OVERCAST SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD OFF IN CUTTING
BACK ON THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR NOW SINCE IF THERE IS SOME
THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT LIFT AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKE
OR TWO. FOR THE MARINE ZONES, EXTENDED THE SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH 18Z AS SETTLEMENT POINT STILL GETTING GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. THESE SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO LESSEN.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THAT STARTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE
INTERRUPTED BY AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER ON
TODAY. A FEW PERIODS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
APF THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY OR AROUND NOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS AT APF. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THIS LINE WEAKENING AND BREAKING UP
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE EAST COAST SHRA
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

/JE/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CEILINGS SEEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC STILL KEEPS SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A GENERAL THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
FORCING ALBEIT WEAK SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST
OVERRUNNING FLOW CONTINUING.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.

MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  61  77  69 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  66  77  69 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           79  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KTBW 261429
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
929 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NOW ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR TITUSVILLE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
VENICE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS ITS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. 88D RETURNS SHOW A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR SEBRING
SOUTHWEST TO CHARLOTTE HARBOR WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS COVERING THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED AROUND THE TAMPA
BAY AREA.

AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK
TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES AND THE NATURE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH MORE CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN CHANCES
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT FOR THE
NATURE COAST...BUT WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION (20 PERCENT) IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 70S
SOUTH. WILL REFRESH WORDING IN THE ZONES IN A MID MORNING UPDATE
TO REFLECT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS (KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW) THROUGH 16Z WITH ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. FROM KSRQ
NORTH TO KTPA...KPIE...AND KLAL MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH
INTERVALS OF OF VFR MIXED IN. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 17Z AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH...WHILE NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT KSRQ...KTPA....KPIE...AND KLAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THOUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS
AS WINDS THERE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NW WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SEAS REMAIN NEAR 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE AND WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED RISK FOR HIGH SURF
AND AN INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING







000
FXUS62 KTBW 261429
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
929 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NOW ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR TITUSVILLE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
VENICE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS ITS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. 88D RETURNS SHOW A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR SEBRING
SOUTHWEST TO CHARLOTTE HARBOR WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS COVERING THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED AROUND THE TAMPA
BAY AREA.

AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK
TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES AND THE NATURE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH MORE CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN CHANCES
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT FOR THE
NATURE COAST...BUT WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION (20 PERCENT) IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 70S
SOUTH. WILL REFRESH WORDING IN THE ZONES IN A MID MORNING UPDATE
TO REFLECT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS (KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW) THROUGH 16Z WITH ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. FROM KSRQ
NORTH TO KTPA...KPIE...AND KLAL MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH
INTERVALS OF OF VFR MIXED IN. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 17Z AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH...WHILE NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT KSRQ...KTPA....KPIE...AND KLAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THOUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS
AS WINDS THERE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NW WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SEAS REMAIN NEAR 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE AND WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED RISK FOR HIGH SURF
AND AN INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING







000
FXUS62 KTBW 261429
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
929 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NOW ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR TITUSVILLE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
VENICE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS ITS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. 88D RETURNS SHOW A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR SEBRING
SOUTHWEST TO CHARLOTTE HARBOR WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS COVERING THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED AROUND THE TAMPA
BAY AREA.

AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK
TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES AND THE NATURE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH MORE CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN CHANCES
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT FOR THE
NATURE COAST...BUT WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION (20 PERCENT) IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 70S
SOUTH. WILL REFRESH WORDING IN THE ZONES IN A MID MORNING UPDATE
TO REFLECT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS (KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW) THROUGH 16Z WITH ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. FROM KSRQ
NORTH TO KTPA...KPIE...AND KLAL MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH
INTERVALS OF OF VFR MIXED IN. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 17Z AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH...WHILE NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT KSRQ...KTPA....KPIE...AND KLAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THOUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS
AS WINDS THERE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NW WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SEAS REMAIN NEAR 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE AND WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED RISK FOR HIGH SURF
AND AN INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING







000
FXUS62 KTBW 261429
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
929 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT NOW ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR TITUSVILLE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
VENICE WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
BEFORE STALLING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS ITS MAIN UPPER SUPPORT MOVES AWAY. 88D RETURNS SHOW A
NARROW LINE OF CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR SEBRING
SOUTHWEST TO CHARLOTTE HARBOR WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS COVERING THE
FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NOTED AROUND THE TAMPA
BAY AREA.

AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK
TO ERODE SOME OF THE CLOUDS WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES AND THE NATURE COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH MORE CLOUDS HANGING ON ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING IN CHANCES
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LOOKS MINIMAL AT THE MOMENT FOR THE
NATURE COAST...BUT WILL KEEP A LOW POP MENTION (20 PERCENT) IN
PLACE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S NORTH INTO CENTRAL ZONES...AND LOWER TO MID 70S
SOUTH. WILL REFRESH WORDING IN THE ZONES IN A MID MORNING UPDATE
TO REFLECT CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS ALONG WITH SOME MVFR VSBYS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS (KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW) THROUGH 16Z WITH ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. FROM KSRQ
NORTH TO KTPA...KPIE...AND KLAL MAINLY MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH
INTERVALS OF OF VFR MIXED IN. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 17Z AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH...WHILE NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT KSRQ...KTPA....KPIE...AND KLAL TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN WATERS THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
THOUGH THE AREA. BEHIND THE FRONT...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS
AS WINDS THERE WILL REMAIN ELEVATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...NW WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

SEAS REMAIN NEAR 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE AND WITH STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED RISK FOR HIGH SURF
AND AN INCREASED THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.


&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING







000
FXUS62 KMFL 261147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
647 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THAT STARTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE
INTERRUPTED BY AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER ON
TODAY. A FEW PERIODS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
APF THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY OR AROUND NOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS AT APF. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THIS LINE WEAKENING AND BREAKING UP
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE EAST COAST SHRA
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

/JE/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CEILINGS SEEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC STILL KEEPS SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A GENERAL THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
FORCING ALBEIT WEAK SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST
OVERRUNNING FLOW CONTINUING.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.

MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  61  77  69 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  66  77  69 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           79  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
647 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THAT STARTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE
INTERRUPTED BY AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER ON
TODAY. A FEW PERIODS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
APF THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY OR AROUND NOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS AT APF. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THIS LINE WEAKENING AND BREAKING UP
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE EAST COAST SHRA
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

/JE/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CEILINGS SEEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC STILL KEEPS SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A GENERAL THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
FORCING ALBEIT WEAK SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST
OVERRUNNING FLOW CONTINUING.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.

MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  61  77  69 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  66  77  69 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           79  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
647 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS THAT STARTED EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE
INTERRUPTED BY AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER ON
TODAY. A FEW PERIODS WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT
APF THIS MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY OR AROUND NOON, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS AT APF. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THIS LINE WEAKENING AND BREAKING UP
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN THE EAST COAST SHRA
ACTIVITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS POINT.

/JE/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CEILINGS SEEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC STILL KEEPS SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A GENERAL THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
FORCING ALBEIT WEAK SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST
OVERRUNNING FLOW CONTINUING.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.

MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  61  77  69 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  66  77  69 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           79  62  77  61 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KKEY 261135
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
635 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/27TH...OUTSIDE OF A FEW BRIEF MVFR CEILING
ENCOUNTERS EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA.
ALTHOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 8 AND
13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST CROSSWINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ042>044-
     052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 261135
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
635 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/27TH...OUTSIDE OF A FEW BRIEF MVFR CEILING
ENCOUNTERS EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA.
ALTHOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 8 AND
13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST CROSSWINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ042>044-
     052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 261135
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
635 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/27TH...OUTSIDE OF A FEW BRIEF MVFR CEILING
ENCOUNTERS EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. BY THIS EVENING...EXPECT A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA.
ALTHOUGH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE BETWEEN 8 AND
13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST CROSSWINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1 AND 5 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ042>044-
     052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261034
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
535 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
OVERNIGHT IS ACCELERATING UP THE EAST COAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR
MYRTLE BEACH SC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT AS OF 4 AM STRETCHES FROM
BRUNSWICK TO CROSS CITY. THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS IS IN THE PROCESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANOTHER
LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNRISE WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY MID MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AT ALL AREAS THE REST OF THE DAY.

WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE
SEEING A STEEP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A CHILLY LOW TO MID
40S IN SE GA AND A MILD MID TO UPPER 60S IN NE FL. THE COOLER AIR
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD WITH TEMPS FALLING ACROSS NE FL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND THEN BEGIN TO
CLIMB A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

PARTLY CLOUD SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON FRI...KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS IN
PLACE. A COOL N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE FEB CLIMO...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE COAST...UPPER 50S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...COASTAL TROUGHING
WILL SLOWLY TAKE SHAPE FRI NIGHT. A TIGHTENING LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO FUNNEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TOWARDS THE
COAST...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SAT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INTRODUCE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER OVER REGION...WITH LOWS
OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA NEAR 40...RANGING TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA ON SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD...KEEPING NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS IN THE BREEZY TO POSSIBLY
WINDY RANGE OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE AS THE FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS NORTH
CENTRAL FL...SO LEFT POP COVERAGE AT CHANCE FOR NOW FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRUNSWICK SOUTHWESTWARD TO GAINESVILLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP WELL BELOW
CLIMO HIGHS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE 50S ARE
EXPECTED. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL PULL THIS COOLER AIR INTO
DUVAL/NASSAU/BAKER COUNTIES...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL RISING INTO THE 60S DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUDS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SAT NIGHT...KEEPING DEEP ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO WE
OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TREND
IN COVERAGE INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIMB AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES E-SE...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 50S
FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FL...WITH 40S FOR SOUTHEAST GA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
SUN...WITH HIGHS REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR ONE MORE DAY
OVER SOUTHEAST GA.  VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LOW-END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE REGION-WIDE...WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW BOOSTING HIGHS INTO
THE 70S FOR INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH 60S ALONG
THE COAST. FOG MAY BECOME A NIGHTLY OCCURRENCE DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE CLIMO DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND LOWS ONLY FALLING
INTO THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTH CENTRAL
FL. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF OUR REGION MAY DEVELOP
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON MON. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S MON-THURS...WITH HIGHS IN NORTH CENTRAL FL
REACHING THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND COOL SHELF WATERS MAY
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST GA COAST.
AN APPROACHING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL NECESSITATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT INLAND LOCATIONS WED...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST
FL BY THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW END
MVFR THROUGHOUT THE MORNING BUT A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE DUE
TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY DIMINISH IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER A COUPLE OF
HOURS PAST SUNRISE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TO A SOLID 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON FRI...GRADUALLY TIGHTENING OUR PRESSURE
GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH N-NE WINDS INCREASING TO
CAUTION LEVELS. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL TAKE SHAPE ON FRI
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH NEAR
SHORE AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL BUILD
TO 8-11 FEET BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY
SLOWLY WEAKEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY...WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING NEAR
SHORE AND OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  38  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  55  43  54  45 /  10   0   0  10
JAX  60  43  58  44 /  20   0   0  10
SGJ  63  47  57  51 /  40   0   0  20
GNV  65  44  63  46 /  20   0   0  10
OCF  66  46  65  49 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON



000
FXUS62 KJAX 261034
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
535 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SURFACE LOW THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
OVERNIGHT IS ACCELERATING UP THE EAST COAST AND IS CURRENTLY NEAR
MYRTLE BEACH SC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT AS OF 4 AM STRETCHES FROM
BRUNSWICK TO CROSS CITY. THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS IS IN THE PROCESS OF CLEARING OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. ANOTHER
LINE OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNRISE WITH ALL RAIN EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY MID MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN
PREVAIL AT ALL AREAS THE REST OF THE DAY.

WITH THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WE ARE
SEEING A STEEP GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES WITH A CHILLY LOW TO MID
40S IN SE GA AND A MILD MID TO UPPER 60S IN NE FL. THE COOLER AIR
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD WITH TEMPS FALLING ACROSS NE FL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPS WILL LEVEL OFF AND THEN BEGIN TO
CLIMB A BIT THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND
THE SUN MAKES AN APPEARANCE. MAX TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 50S NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTH.

PARTLY CLOUD SKIES TONIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU
CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.

DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ON FRI...KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS IN
PLACE. A COOL N-NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW LATE FEB CLIMO...WITH MID 50S ALONG THE COAST...UPPER 50S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOW/MID 60S FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...COASTAL TROUGHING
WILL SLOWLY TAKE SHAPE FRI NIGHT. A TIGHTENING LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO FUNNEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE TOWARDS THE
COAST...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR
FLAGLER AND ST. JOHNS COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SAT. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
INTRODUCE A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER OVER REGION...WITH LOWS
OVER INLAND SOUTHEAST GA NEAR 40...RANGING TO NEAR 50 ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FL COAST.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA ON SAT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTHWARD...KEEPING NORTHEAST WIND SPEEDS IN THE BREEZY TO POSSIBLY
WINDY RANGE OVER COASTAL LOCATIONS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE AS THE FRONT LIFTS TOWARDS NORTH
CENTRAL FL...SO LEFT POP COVERAGE AT CHANCE FOR NOW FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BRUNSWICK SOUTHWESTWARD TO GAINESVILLE. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL KEEP WELL BELOW
CLIMO HIGHS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE 50S ARE
EXPECTED. THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL PULL THIS COOLER AIR INTO
DUVAL/NASSAU/BAKER COUNTIES...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL RISING INTO THE 60S DESPITE ABUNDANT CLOUDS.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST SAT NIGHT...KEEPING DEEP ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...SO WE
OPTED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE WITH A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TREND
IN COVERAGE INTO COASTAL SOUTHEAST GA. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
CLIMB AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES E-SE...KEEPING LOWS IN THE 50S
FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST FL...WITH 40S FOR SOUTHEAST GA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL EXPAND
NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN RISING HEIGHTS OVER OUR AREA NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
SUN...WITH HIGHS REMAINING SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO FOR ONE MORE DAY
OVER SOUTHEAST GA.  VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP LOW-END CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE REGION-WIDE...WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW BOOSTING HIGHS INTO
THE 70S FOR INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH 60S ALONG
THE COAST. FOG MAY BECOME A NIGHTLY OCCURRENCE DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH ABOVE CLIMO DEWPOINTS IN PLACE AND LOWS ONLY FALLING
INTO THE 50S...EXCEPT NEAR 60 ALONG THE COAST AND IN NORTH CENTRAL
FL. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTH OF OUR REGION MAY DEVELOP
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST GA ON MON. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S MON-THURS...WITH HIGHS IN NORTH CENTRAL FL
REACHING THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND COOL SHELF WATERS MAY
KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST GA COAST.
AN APPROACHING AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL NECESSITATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT INLAND LOCATIONS WED...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST
FL BY THURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH NORTHEAST FLORIDA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LOW END
MVFR THROUGHOUT THE MORNING BUT A PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE DUE
TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND QUICKLY DIMINISH IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. THE ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS JUST PRIOR TO
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER A COUPLE OF
HOURS PAST SUNRISE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN TO A SOLID 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND INTO OUR REGION ON FRI...GRADUALLY TIGHTENING OUR PRESSURE
GRADIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH N-NE WINDS INCREASING TO
CAUTION LEVELS. COASTAL TROUGHING WILL TAKE SHAPE ON FRI
NIGHT...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH NEAR
SHORE AND OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL BUILD
TO 8-11 FEET BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONLY
SLOWLY WEAKEN ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SUNDAY...WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING NEAR
SHORE AND OFFSHORE THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  38  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  55  43  54  45 /  10   0   0  10
JAX  60  43  58  44 /  20   0   0  10
SGJ  63  47  57  51 /  40   0   0  20
GNV  65  44  63  46 /  20   0   0  10
OCF  66  46  65  49 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST.
     AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO
     FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON




000
FXUS62 KKEY 261013
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
513 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE UP
ABOUT 10F FROM LAST NIGHT...THANKS TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACCELERATING INTO AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THE FOG IS GONE...BUT THE HUMIDITY REMAINS...WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRAILS THE DEVELOPING LOW...EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE
WEST FLORIDA SHELF...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS. LOCAL RADARS ARE COMPLETELY VOID OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA...AS THEY HAVE BEEN ALL DAY AND NIGHT.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET AND
RELATED MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF
THE KEYS...AND GENERAL ANTICYCLONIC TENDENCIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LOCAL LOWER TROPOSPHERE...WITH GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT RISES EVEN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COOL FRONT. THEREFORE...LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF THERMODYNAMIC DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED...AND ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL AWAIT THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WE HAVE
REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER ABOUT 300 PM.
A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS
THE COOLER AIR FIRST ARRIVES. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY DRIER NORTHERLY
AIR TRAJECTORIES WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL RISING OF CLOUD BASES
OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...BASIC PROGNOSTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME
AS PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. A STRONG HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE KEYS...
RESULTING IN A BREEZY PERIOD WITH RAPID AIR MASS MODIFICATION.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
HAWK CHANNEL THIS MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR COASTAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT. FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL SLACKEN
THIS AFTERNOON... BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES DEVELOPING...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/27TH...OUTSIDE OF A FEW BRIEF MVFR CEILING ENCOUNTERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1967...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 49F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052
     GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 261013
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
513 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE UP
ABOUT 10F FROM LAST NIGHT...THANKS TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
ACCELERATING INTO AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THE FOG IS GONE...BUT THE HUMIDITY REMAINS...WITH
CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. A WEAK COLD FRONT
TRAILS THE DEVELOPING LOW...EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE
WEST FLORIDA SHELF...A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS. LOCAL RADARS ARE COMPLETELY VOID OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA...AS THEY HAVE BEEN ALL DAY AND NIGHT.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE POLAR JET AND
RELATED MIGRATORY SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL REMAIN FAR TO THE NORTH OF
THE KEYS...AND GENERAL ANTICYCLONIC TENDENCIES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LOCAL LOWER TROPOSPHERE...WITH GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT RISES EVEN EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVEN WITH THE
APPROACH OF AN EXTREMELY SHALLOW COOL FRONT. THEREFORE...LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF THERMODYNAMIC DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED...AND ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL AWAIT THE APPROACH OF THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WE HAVE
REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER ABOUT 300 PM.
A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS
THE COOLER AIR FIRST ARRIVES. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY DRIER NORTHERLY
AIR TRAJECTORIES WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL RISING OF CLOUD BASES
OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND...BASIC PROGNOSTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME
AS PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. A STRONG HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF THE KEYS...
RESULTING IN A BREEZY PERIOD WITH RAPID AIR MASS MODIFICATION.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND
HAWK CHANNEL THIS MORNING. AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR COASTAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING...WILL MOVE QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TODAY. A COLD FRONT
TRAILING THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD...REACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT. FRESH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL SLACKEN
THIS AFTERNOON... BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH FRESH TO STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EAST BREEZES DEVELOPING...AND PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/27TH...OUTSIDE OF A FEW BRIEF MVFR CEILING ENCOUNTERS
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS
EVENING...EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO APPROACH AND MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS...WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1967...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 49F WAS
RECORDED IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052
     GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KMFL 260840
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CEILINGS SEEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC STILL KEEPS SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A GENERAL THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
FORCING ALBEIT WEAK SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST
OVERRUNNING FLOW CONTINUING.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  62  77  68 /  40  40  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  66  76  67 /  30  30  30  20
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  30  30  30  20
NAPLES           79  60  75  59 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260840
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CEILINGS SEEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC STILL KEEPS SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A GENERAL THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
FORCING ALBEIT WEAK SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST
OVERRUNNING FLOW CONTINUING.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  62  77  68 /  40  40  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  66  76  67 /  30  30  30  20
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  30  30  30  20
NAPLES           79  60  75  59 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260840
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CEILINGS SEEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC STILL KEEPS SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A GENERAL THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
FORCING ALBEIT WEAK SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST
OVERRUNNING FLOW CONTINUING.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  62  77  68 /  40  40  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  66  76  67 /  30  30  30  20
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  30  30  30  20
NAPLES           79  60  75  59 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 260840
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA
PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST. A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE
INHIBITED WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY ISOLATED LOW CEILINGS SEEN MOSTLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OUT AHEAD OF IT. SPC STILL KEEPS SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A GENERAL THUNDER MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. CURRENTLY LOOKS AS IF THE BEST
FORCING ALBEIT WEAK SHOULD OCCUR AFTER PEAK HEATING HOURS...SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. THE FRONT
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MODELS HOWEVER CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LINGERING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A DEEP MOISTURE RICH SOUTHWEST
OVERRUNNING FLOW CONTINUING.

EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS PUSHES TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. CONCURRENTLY...STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED KEEPING THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS BY TO THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TO EASTERLY ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ANY ACCOMPANYING
INCREASE IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  62  77  68 /  40  40  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  66  76  67 /  30  30  30  20
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  30  30  30  20
NAPLES           79  60  75  59 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 260838
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
338 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KNOTS IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
LOW CENTER. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
BEGINS TO COLLAPSE. FOR THE MOST PART...ANY SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE MORE
ORGANIZED ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINES.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
BROAD...AND WE NEVER TRULY GET INTO THE BACKSIDE OF IT. AT THE
SURFACE...WE WILL HAVE A MASSIVE 1045MB HIGH CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
BY TO OUR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THIS HIGH WILL PUSH THE FRONT
ENTIRELY THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...THE COOL AIRMASS IS
GOING TO BE QUITE SHALLOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A GREAT DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
CLEARING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.

WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY AND A SHALLOW
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE...OVER-RUNNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE DRIEST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF
THE WETTEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THEIR TRENDS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA BY MID-DAY.

WE WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. BUOY
42036 IS ALREADY AT 10 FEET AND CLIMBING. THE WESTERLY FETCH OF
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING THE ENERGY TO THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PERHAPS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FORECAST IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC REGARDING THE
IMPACT OF RETURNING MOISTURE/UPGLIDE ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. JUST VIEWING THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS...IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WOULD
KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY...HOWEVER...GO A LITTLE BIT ALOFT AND WINDS
QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH A DECENT SWATH
OF UPGLIDE ALONG THE 290-300K SURFACES PIVOTING BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE
THIS UPGLIDE REGIME STRONG AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PERIODS
OF  SHOWERS / AREAS OF MEASURABLE QPF. THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IS
THE GFS WHICH IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPGLIDE AND QPF
FIELDS...AND WOULD SUGGEST A MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST. IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...AND WILL
KEEP SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
A TREND OF MORE SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-4 EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...AND
THEN TRANSITIONING FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND WE ARE LIKELY TALKING ABOUT QPF NUMBERS
GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SINCE THE PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY
ILL-DEFINED...THE RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE A BIT THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER A SCT NATURE OF LIGHT SHOWERS SEEMS THE
MOST APPROPRIATE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPGLIDE PATTERN WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AND MUCH OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY.

THEREAFTER...THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK ARE LOOKING
WARM AND DRY...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE SHOULD PROTECT OUR REGION FROM
ANY INCLEMENT WEATHER TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL...AND POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
WE SHOULD SEE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CEILINGS ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST TODAY. AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT...SOME POCKETS OF IFR
AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. SEAS ARE ALREADY
10 FEET AT BUOY 42036. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF 20 KNOT EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  51  67  55 /  40   0  20  30
FMY  77  58  72  60 /  70  10  30  30
GIF  70  52  68  55 /  60  10  40  40
SRQ  68  53  68  56 /  60  10  40  30
BKV  66  46  67  51 /  30   0  10  20
SPG  67  54  67  57 /  40   0  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 260838
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
338 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PULL RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KNOTS IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE
LOW CENTER. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
BEGINS TO COLLAPSE. FOR THE MOST PART...ANY SEVERE THREAT HAS
ENDED BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS IN THE MORE
ORGANIZED ELEMENTS WITHIN THE LINES.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
BROAD...AND WE NEVER TRULY GET INTO THE BACKSIDE OF IT. AT THE
SURFACE...WE WILL HAVE A MASSIVE 1045MB HIGH CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
BY TO OUR NORTH. EVEN THOUGH THIS HIGH WILL PUSH THE FRONT
ENTIRELY THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS EVENING...THE COOL AIRMASS IS
GOING TO BE QUITE SHALLOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A GREAT DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
CLEARING TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.

WITH THE TROUGH AXIS STILL TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY AND A SHALLOW
COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE...OVER-RUNNING AND CLOUDS
WILL LOWER AND THICKEN...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER THE REGION
ON FRIDAY...WITH THE GFS THE DRIEST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE ECMWF
THE WETTEST. THE NAM IS ACTUALLY QUITE SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THEIR TRENDS. THIS BRINGS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA BY MID-DAY.

WE WILL BE ISSUING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WITH THIS PACKAGE. BUOY
42036 IS ALREADY AT 10 FEET AND CLIMBING. THE WESTERLY FETCH OF
WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL BRING THE ENERGY TO THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND PERHAPS FOR A SHORT TIME THIS EVENING.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND FORECAST IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC REGARDING THE
IMPACT OF RETURNING MOISTURE/UPGLIDE ALOFT FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. JUST VIEWING THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS...IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH WOULD
KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY...HOWEVER...GO A LITTLE BIT ALOFT AND WINDS
QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WITH A DECENT SWATH
OF UPGLIDE ALONG THE 290-300K SURFACES PIVOTING BACK NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE
THIS UPGLIDE REGIME STRONG AND PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PERIODS
OF  SHOWERS / AREAS OF MEASURABLE QPF. THE OUTLIER AT THIS POINT IS
THE GFS WHICH IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPGLIDE AND QPF
FIELDS...AND WOULD SUGGEST A MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT GENERALLY DRY
FORECAST. IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...AND WILL
KEEP SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
A TREND OF MORE SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-4 EARLIER IN THE PERIOD...AND
THEN TRANSITIONING FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME. ANY RAINFALL SHOULD BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND WE ARE LIKELY TALKING ABOUT QPF NUMBERS
GENERALLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. SINCE THE PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY
ILL-DEFINED...THE RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE A BIT THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER A SCT NATURE OF LIGHT SHOWERS SEEMS THE
MOST APPROPRIATE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE OVERALL UPGLIDE PATTERN WILL BE BREAKING DOWN
AND MUCH OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY.

THEREAFTER...THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK ARE LOOKING
WARM AND DRY...AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FL PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE SHOULD PROTECT OUR REGION FROM
ANY INCLEMENT WEATHER TO THE NORTH AND ALLOW OUR TEMPERATURES TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL...AND POTENTIALLY WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
WE SHOULD SEE PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CEILINGS ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST TODAY. AHEAD OF THE WIND SHIFT...SOME POCKETS OF IFR
AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE. SEAS ARE ALREADY
10 FEET AT BUOY 42036. EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL BRING PERIODS OF 20 KNOT EASTERLY
WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON SUNDAY ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  51  67  55 /  40   0  20  30
FMY  77  58  72  60 /  70  10  30  30
GIF  70  52  68  55 /  60  10  40  40
SRQ  68  53  68  56 /  60  10  40  30
BKV  66  46  67  51 /  30   0  10  20
SPG  67  54  67  57 /  40   0  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-TAMPA BAY
     WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KMLB 260833
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 TO
50 MPH WILL AFFECT THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AND
AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THE LINE SHOULD SLOW IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE WEAKENING...BUT PERSIST THROUGH AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME REINVIGORATED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING INTO THE
UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S OCCURS.

DUE TO THE FAST CELL MOVEMENT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL START TO EASE BUT STILL A QUITE FAST CELL MOTION WILL
PERSIST.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. ENOUGH DRYING SHOULD OCCUR TO
TAKE OUT MENTION OF SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SOUTH.

FRI-SAT...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD. STOUT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
UPGLIDE IN TANDEM WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...MAINLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION OUR WINDS ONSHORE. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB AND CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO EXPECTED MONDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO MID WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MODERATED BY THE CHILLY ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL TRAVERSE MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. KVRB-KSUA SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LINE...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAST
MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. THEN AS
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNING NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.

FRI-SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH SEAS OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO
BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  46  62  52 /  60  10  10  30
MCO  70  51  67  53 /  60  10  20  30
MLB  73  53  67  59 /  70  30  30  30
VRB  78  58  69  61 /  70  50  30  30
LEE  67  49  66  50 /  50  10  10  30
SFB  68  47  65  51 /  60  10  20  30
ORL  69  49  66  52 /  60  10  20  30
FPR  79  57  70  62 /  70  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 260833
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 TO
50 MPH WILL AFFECT THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AND
AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THE LINE SHOULD SLOW IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE WEAKENING...BUT PERSIST THROUGH AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME REINVIGORATED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING INTO THE
UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S OCCURS.

DUE TO THE FAST CELL MOVEMENT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL START TO EASE BUT STILL A QUITE FAST CELL MOTION WILL
PERSIST.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. ENOUGH DRYING SHOULD OCCUR TO
TAKE OUT MENTION OF SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SOUTH.

FRI-SAT...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD. STOUT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
UPGLIDE IN TANDEM WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...MAINLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION OUR WINDS ONSHORE. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB AND CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO EXPECTED MONDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO MID WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MODERATED BY THE CHILLY ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL TRAVERSE MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. KVRB-KSUA SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LINE...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAST
MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. THEN AS
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNING NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.

FRI-SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH SEAS OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO
BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  46  62  52 /  60  10  10  30
MCO  70  51  67  53 /  60  10  20  30
MLB  73  53  67  59 /  70  30  30  30
VRB  78  58  69  61 /  70  50  30  30
LEE  67  49  66  50 /  50  10  10  30
SFB  68  47  65  51 /  60  10  20  30
ORL  69  49  66  52 /  60  10  20  30
FPR  79  57  70  62 /  70  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 260833
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 TO
50 MPH WILL AFFECT THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AND
AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THE LINE SHOULD SLOW IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE WEAKENING...BUT PERSIST THROUGH AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME REINVIGORATED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING INTO THE
UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S OCCURS.

DUE TO THE FAST CELL MOVEMENT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL START TO EASE BUT STILL A QUITE FAST CELL MOTION WILL
PERSIST.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. ENOUGH DRYING SHOULD OCCUR TO
TAKE OUT MENTION OF SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SOUTH.

FRI-SAT...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD. STOUT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
UPGLIDE IN TANDEM WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...MAINLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION OUR WINDS ONSHORE. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB AND CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO EXPECTED MONDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO MID WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MODERATED BY THE CHILLY ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL TRAVERSE MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. KVRB-KSUA SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LINE...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAST
MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. THEN AS
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNING NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.

FRI-SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH SEAS OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO
BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  46  62  52 /  60  10  10  30
MCO  70  51  67  53 /  60  10  20  30
MLB  73  53  67  59 /  70  30  30  30
VRB  78  58  69  61 /  70  50  30  30
LEE  67  49  66  50 /  50  10  10  30
SFB  68  47  65  51 /  60  10  20  30
ORL  69  49  66  52 /  60  10  20  30
FPR  79  57  70  62 /  70  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 260833
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 TO
50 MPH WILL AFFECT THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AND
AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THE LINE SHOULD SLOW IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE WEAKENING...BUT PERSIST THROUGH AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME REINVIGORATED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING INTO THE
UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S OCCURS.

DUE TO THE FAST CELL MOVEMENT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL START TO EASE BUT STILL A QUITE FAST CELL MOTION WILL
PERSIST.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. ENOUGH DRYING SHOULD OCCUR TO
TAKE OUT MENTION OF SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SOUTH.

FRI-SAT...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD. STOUT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
UPGLIDE IN TANDEM WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...MAINLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION OUR WINDS ONSHORE. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB AND CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO EXPECTED MONDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO MID WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MODERATED BY THE CHILLY ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL TRAVERSE MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. KVRB-KSUA SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LINE...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAST
MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. THEN AS
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNING NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.

FRI-SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH SEAS OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO
BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  46  62  52 /  60  10  10  30
MCO  70  51  67  53 /  60  10  20  30
MLB  73  53  67  59 /  70  30  30  30
VRB  78  58  69  61 /  70  50  30  30
LEE  67  49  66  50 /  50  10  10  30
SFB  68  47  65  51 /  60  10  20  30
ORL  69  49  66  52 /  60  10  20  30
FPR  79  57  70  62 /  70  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 260833
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 TO
50 MPH WILL AFFECT THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AND
AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THE LINE SHOULD SLOW IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE WEAKENING...BUT PERSIST THROUGH AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME REINVIGORATED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING INTO THE
UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S OCCURS.

DUE TO THE FAST CELL MOVEMENT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL START TO EASE BUT STILL A QUITE FAST CELL MOTION WILL
PERSIST.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. ENOUGH DRYING SHOULD OCCUR TO
TAKE OUT MENTION OF SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SOUTH.

FRI-SAT...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD. STOUT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
UPGLIDE IN TANDEM WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...MAINLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION OUR WINDS ONSHORE. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB AND CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO EXPECTED MONDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO MID WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MODERATED BY THE CHILLY ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL TRAVERSE MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. KVRB-KSUA SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LINE...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAST
MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. THEN AS
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNING NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.

FRI-SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH SEAS OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO
BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  46  62  52 /  60  10  10  30
MCO  70  51  67  53 /  60  10  20  30
MLB  73  53  67  59 /  70  30  30  30
VRB  78  58  69  61 /  70  50  30  30
LEE  67  49  66  50 /  50  10  10  30
SFB  68  47  65  51 /  60  10  20  30
ORL  69  49  66  52 /  60  10  20  30
FPR  79  57  70  62 /  70  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 260833
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 TO
50 MPH WILL AFFECT THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AND
AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THE LINE SHOULD SLOW IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE WEAKENING...BUT PERSIST THROUGH AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME REINVIGORATED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING INTO THE
UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S OCCURS.

DUE TO THE FAST CELL MOVEMENT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL START TO EASE BUT STILL A QUITE FAST CELL MOTION WILL
PERSIST.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. ENOUGH DRYING SHOULD OCCUR TO
TAKE OUT MENTION OF SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SOUTH.

FRI-SAT...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD. STOUT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
UPGLIDE IN TANDEM WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...MAINLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION OUR WINDS ONSHORE. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB AND CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO EXPECTED MONDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO MID WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MODERATED BY THE CHILLY ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL TRAVERSE MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. KVRB-KSUA SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LINE...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAST
MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. THEN AS
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNING NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.

FRI-SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH SEAS OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO
BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  46  62  52 /  60  10  10  30
MCO  70  51  67  53 /  60  10  20  30
MLB  73  53  67  59 /  70  30  30  30
VRB  78  58  69  61 /  70  50  30  30
LEE  67  49  66  50 /  50  10  10  30
SFB  68  47  65  51 /  60  10  20  30
ORL  69  49  66  52 /  60  10  20  30
FPR  79  57  70  62 /  70  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 260833
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 TO
50 MPH WILL AFFECT THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AND
AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THE LINE SHOULD SLOW IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE WEAKENING...BUT PERSIST THROUGH AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME REINVIGORATED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING INTO THE
UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S OCCURS.

DUE TO THE FAST CELL MOVEMENT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL START TO EASE BUT STILL A QUITE FAST CELL MOTION WILL
PERSIST.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. ENOUGH DRYING SHOULD OCCUR TO
TAKE OUT MENTION OF SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SOUTH.

FRI-SAT...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD. STOUT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
UPGLIDE IN TANDEM WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...MAINLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION OUR WINDS ONSHORE. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB AND CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO EXPECTED MONDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO MID WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MODERATED BY THE CHILLY ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL TRAVERSE MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. KVRB-KSUA SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LINE...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAST
MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. THEN AS
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNING NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.

FRI-SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH SEAS OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO
BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  46  62  52 /  60  10  10  30
MCO  70  51  67  53 /  60  10  20  30
MLB  73  53  67  59 /  70  30  30  30
VRB  78  58  69  61 /  70  50  30  30
LEE  67  49  66  50 /  50  10  10  30
SFB  68  47  65  51 /  60  10  20  30
ORL  69  49  66  52 /  60  10  20  30
FPR  79  57  70  62 /  70  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 260833
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 TO
50 MPH WILL AFFECT THE NORTH HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE SUNRISE AND
AREAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. THE LINE SHOULD SLOW IN
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHILE WEAKENING...BUT PERSIST THROUGH AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME REINVIGORATED
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME HEATING INTO THE
UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S OCCURS.

DUE TO THE FAST CELL MOVEMENT...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STRONG
WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. BY AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL START TO EASE BUT STILL A QUITE FAST CELL MOTION WILL
PERSIST.

COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING BUT
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WILL LINGER. ENOUGH DRYING SHOULD OCCUR TO
TAKE OUT MENTION OF SHOWER CHANCES BY LATE EVENING EXCEPT FOR THE
FAR SOUTH.

FRI-SAT...MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE PERIOD. STOUT
SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON TOP OF SHALLOW NORTHERLY FLOW
AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK
UPGLIDE IN TANDEM WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. KEPT RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN 20 AND 30
PERCENT FOR THE PERIOD...MAINLY GIVEN THE FACT THAT RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION OUR WINDS ONSHORE. FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.

SUN-WED...BOUNDARY WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
WEEKEND...ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB AND CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE. TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO EXPECTED MONDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO MID WEEK AS RIDGING DEVELOPS TO OUR EAST. WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MODERATED BY THE CHILLY ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST MOVING PRE FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL TRAVERSE MOST OF THE
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. KVRB-KSUA SHOULD SEE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE LINE...OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS CURRENTLY OCCURRING AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT AND PRODUCING HAZARDOUS BOATING. ADDITIONALLY...A FAST
MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL AFFECT THE WATERS FROM CANAVERAL NORTHWARD
THROUGH SUNRISE. SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL OCCUR
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY SEBASTIAN INLET NORTHWARD.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OFFSHORE UNTIL ABOUT MIDDAY. THEN AS
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TURNING NORTHERLY THIS EVENING.

FRI-SUN...NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
US. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON SATURDAY...
INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT WITH SEAS OFFSHORE EXPECTED TO
BUILD UP TO 8 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  46  62  52 /  60  10  10  30
MCO  70  51  67  53 /  60  10  20  30
MLB  73  53  67  59 /  70  30  30  30
VRB  78  58  69  61 /  70  50  30  30
LEE  67  49  66  50 /  50  10  10  30
SFB  68  47  65  51 /  60  10  20  30
ORL  69  49  66  52 /  60  10  20  30
FPR  79  57  70  62 /  70  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 0-20 NM-
     SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     20-60 NM- SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-
     BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....ULRICH



000
FXUS62 KTAE 260810
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Today]...

As a strong area of low pressure departs the region today, high
pressure will build in its wake. The squall line that affected
the southeast big bend was impressive for this part of the
forecast area, and it was supported by extremely strong
environmental winds aloft. In fact, the 26/00Z KTAE sounding
measured an 850 mb wind of 62 knots, and this ties the record for
the strongest observed 850 mb wind for Tallahassee for either a
00Z or 12z sounding.

Residual low level moisture is expected to keep conditions mostly
cloudy through the day with high temperatures ranging from the
lower 50s across the northwest to the lower 60s across the
southeast big bend.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The trend over the short term period will be a gradually building
ridge aloft (500mb heights increase 130m), while the area remains
situated on the southern periphery of an east coast surface high
pressure. This will keep the weather mostly dry but with cooler-
than-normal temperatures. However, it does appear most locations
will avoid overnight freezes. Small rain chances return on
Saturday as a few rain showers will be possible in the southeast
half of the area as return flow and low-mid level moisture
increase.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

By next week, the ridge aloft should be firmly established over
the Southeast with the east coast surface ridge eroding. This will
set up more of a southerly component to the return flow and allow
temperatures to finally increase. Depending on eventual cloud
cover, a few locations could hit the 80 degree mark early next
week. The forecast calls for mostly mid-upper 70s in the Monday to
Wednesday timeframe right now. Some small rain chances are in the
forecast as models do generate some light QPF, however the primary
QG forcing is currently expected to remain to our north and west.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Friday] As an area of low pressure moves away from
the area, residual low level moisture is expected to allow for
low clouds to persist through much of the period with ceilings
ranging from MVFR to IFR.

&&

.Marine...

With 07Z buoy and tower observations still indicating advisory
level winds over much of the coastal waters, and seas as high as
10 feet about 60NM offshore, the Small Craft Advisory was extended
until 12Z. Winds and seas should diminish this morning. SCEC level
winds will likely return tonight with breezy northeast to east
winds persisting into the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

A large swath of 1-2 inches of rain fell across the area. For the
most part, rivers will remain below minor flood stage, although
several points will reach action stage. One exception may be the
Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson, which could reach minor flood stage
this weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  37  61  40  63 /  10  10   0  10  20
Panama City   54  39  57  43  61 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        51  34  54  36  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
Albany        53  35  56  37  56 /  10  10   0  10  20
Valdosta      55  39  60  41  60 /  10  10   0  10  30
Cross City    61  41  64  45  66 /  10  10  10  10  40
Apalachicola  57  42  59  47  63 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     all zones.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 260810
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
310 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2015

.Near Term [Today]...

As a strong area of low pressure departs the region today, high
pressure will build in its wake. The squall line that affected
the southeast big bend was impressive for this part of the
forecast area, and it was supported by extremely strong
environmental winds aloft. In fact, the 26/00Z KTAE sounding
measured an 850 mb wind of 62 knots, and this ties the record for
the strongest observed 850 mb wind for Tallahassee for either a
00Z or 12z sounding.

Residual low level moisture is expected to keep conditions mostly
cloudy through the day with high temperatures ranging from the
lower 50s across the northwest to the lower 60s across the
southeast big bend.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

The trend over the short term period will be a gradually building
ridge aloft (500mb heights increase 130m), while the area remains
situated on the southern periphery of an east coast surface high
pressure. This will keep the weather mostly dry but with cooler-
than-normal temperatures. However, it does appear most locations
will avoid overnight freezes. Small rain chances return on
Saturday as a few rain showers will be possible in the southeast
half of the area as return flow and low-mid level moisture
increase.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

By next week, the ridge aloft should be firmly established over
the Southeast with the east coast surface ridge eroding. This will
set up more of a southerly component to the return flow and allow
temperatures to finally increase. Depending on eventual cloud
cover, a few locations could hit the 80 degree mark early next
week. The forecast calls for mostly mid-upper 70s in the Monday to
Wednesday timeframe right now. Some small rain chances are in the
forecast as models do generate some light QPF, however the primary
QG forcing is currently expected to remain to our north and west.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12z Friday] As an area of low pressure moves away from
the area, residual low level moisture is expected to allow for
low clouds to persist through much of the period with ceilings
ranging from MVFR to IFR.

&&

.Marine...

With 07Z buoy and tower observations still indicating advisory
level winds over much of the coastal waters, and seas as high as
10 feet about 60NM offshore, the Small Craft Advisory was extended
until 12Z. Winds and seas should diminish this morning. SCEC level
winds will likely return tonight with breezy northeast to east
winds persisting into the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

A large swath of 1-2 inches of rain fell across the area. For the
most part, rivers will remain below minor flood stage, although
several points will reach action stage. One exception may be the
Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson, which could reach minor flood stage
this weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   56  37  61  40  63 /  10  10   0  10  20
Panama City   54  39  57  43  61 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        51  34  54  36  58 /  10  10   0  10  10
Albany        53  35  56  37  56 /  10  10   0  10  20
Valdosta      55  39  60  41  60 /  10  10   0  10  30
Cross City    61  41  64  45  66 /  10  10  10  10  40
Apalachicola  57  42  59  47  63 /  10   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK through this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     all zones.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KMFL 260548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW TWEAKS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS IF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. IT IS
TRYING TO PUSH IN ALONG THE GULF COAST, JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.
MODELS SHOWING THE WIND KEEPING UP TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. IF WINDS DO GO CALM, FOG MAY DEVELOP. THE
OTHER HINDERING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD COVER. IF THE LOW TO THE
NORTH SPREADS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ENOUGH, IT COULD HAMPER
THE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN FOR MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND INTERIOR PALM BEACH COUNTY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTH FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A MID/UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH
A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THIS TROUGH IS INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL GO UNDER RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 1000-1002MB SURFACE LOW BY 06Z TONIGHT
OFF THE GA COAST AND 999MB OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 30-35
KNOTS OF WIND AT 1000-2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD EASILY
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SO
WILL SCALE BACK ON THAT. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD
THEN SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES OR
EVEN FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AROUND 18Z AND THEN OOZE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THURSDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, THE FRONT WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA OR THE FLORIDA KEYS WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A THREAT FOR THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
EARLY THURSDAY BUT THAT THREAT LESSENS AS THE FRONT SAGS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS
RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PHASES IN WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA. A SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS OR HIGHER
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS ALL OTHER WATERS. THE
WIND WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS MAY
BUILD ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND
THE WIND VEERS TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AND INCREASES TO AT LEAST
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  62  77  68 /  40  40  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  66  76  67 /  30  30  30  20
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  30  30  30  20
NAPLES           79  60  75  59 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM ...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW TWEAKS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS IF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. IT IS
TRYING TO PUSH IN ALONG THE GULF COAST, JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.
MODELS SHOWING THE WIND KEEPING UP TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. IF WINDS DO GO CALM, FOG MAY DEVELOP. THE
OTHER HINDERING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD COVER. IF THE LOW TO THE
NORTH SPREADS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ENOUGH, IT COULD HAMPER
THE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN FOR MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND INTERIOR PALM BEACH COUNTY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTH FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A MID/UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH
A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THIS TROUGH IS INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL GO UNDER RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 1000-1002MB SURFACE LOW BY 06Z TONIGHT
OFF THE GA COAST AND 999MB OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 30-35
KNOTS OF WIND AT 1000-2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD EASILY
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SO
WILL SCALE BACK ON THAT. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD
THEN SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES OR
EVEN FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AROUND 18Z AND THEN OOZE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THURSDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, THE FRONT WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA OR THE FLORIDA KEYS WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A THREAT FOR THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
EARLY THURSDAY BUT THAT THREAT LESSENS AS THE FRONT SAGS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS
RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PHASES IN WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA. A SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS OR HIGHER
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS ALL OTHER WATERS. THE
WIND WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS MAY
BUILD ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND
THE WIND VEERS TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AND INCREASES TO AT LEAST
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  62  77  68 /  40  40  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  66  76  67 /  30  30  30  20
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  30  30  30  20
NAPLES           79  60  75  59 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM ...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 260548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW TWEAKS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS IF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. IT IS
TRYING TO PUSH IN ALONG THE GULF COAST, JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.
MODELS SHOWING THE WIND KEEPING UP TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. IF WINDS DO GO CALM, FOG MAY DEVELOP. THE
OTHER HINDERING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD COVER. IF THE LOW TO THE
NORTH SPREADS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ENOUGH, IT COULD HAMPER
THE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN FOR MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND INTERIOR PALM BEACH COUNTY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTH FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A MID/UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH
A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THIS TROUGH IS INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL GO UNDER RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 1000-1002MB SURFACE LOW BY 06Z TONIGHT
OFF THE GA COAST AND 999MB OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 30-35
KNOTS OF WIND AT 1000-2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD EASILY
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SO
WILL SCALE BACK ON THAT. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD
THEN SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES OR
EVEN FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AROUND 18Z AND THEN OOZE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THURSDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, THE FRONT WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA OR THE FLORIDA KEYS WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A THREAT FOR THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
EARLY THURSDAY BUT THAT THREAT LESSENS AS THE FRONT SAGS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS
RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PHASES IN WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA. A SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS OR HIGHER
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS ALL OTHER WATERS. THE
WIND WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS MAY
BUILD ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND
THE WIND VEERS TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AND INCREASES TO AT LEAST
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  62  77  68 /  40  40  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  66  76  67 /  30  30  30  20
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  30  30  30  20
NAPLES           79  60  75  59 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM ...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AIRPORTS EXCEPT APF, WHERE
IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY PRESENT AND ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE OTHER AIRPORTS STAY
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THIS MORNING. IF IFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED
AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED. THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO A SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 06-07Z THIS
MORNING. THE WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TONIGHT WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ON THURSDAY, AS
WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AFFECTING THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY WITH EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FAR AND FEW BETWEEN.
THEREFORE, VCSH WILL ONLY BE ADDED AT THIS TIME IN THE TAF SITES
ON THURSDAY AFTER 15Z. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END AROUND 00Z
FEB 27. THERE COULD BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AT KAPF TAF SITE. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 TO 6 MILES, AND THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN
LAST NIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
JUST A FEW TWEAKS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT IS IF FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. IT IS
TRYING TO PUSH IN ALONG THE GULF COAST, JUST NORTH OF THE CWA.
MODELS SHOWING THE WIND KEEPING UP TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP TO
KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. IF WINDS DO GO CALM, FOG MAY DEVELOP. THE
OTHER HINDERING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD COVER. IF THE LOW TO THE
NORTH SPREADS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ENOUGH, IT COULD HAMPER
THE DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. HAVE KEPT PATCHY FOG IN FOR MAINLY THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND INTERIOR PALM BEACH COUNTY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOUTH FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A MID/UPPER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH
A FAST MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THIS TROUGH IS INDUCING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL GO UNDER RAPID CYCLOGENESIS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE EAST.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 1000-1002MB SURFACE LOW BY 06Z TONIGHT
OFF THE GA COAST AND 999MB OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BE TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING 30-35
KNOTS OF WIND AT 1000-2000 FEET OFF THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD EASILY
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF FOG THAT COULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SO
WILL SCALE BACK ON THAT. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE GULF WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WOULD
THEN SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES OR
EVEN FARTHER INLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AROUND 18Z AND THEN OOZE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THURSDAY AS THE MAIN TROUGH LIFTS WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW.
DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN, THE FRONT WILL ONLY REACH THE FAR
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA OR THE FLORIDA KEYS WHERE IT WILL
STALL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A THREAT FOR THUNDER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
EARLY THURSDAY BUT THAT THREAT LESSENS AS THE FRONT SAGS TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY WITH THE MAIN UPPER DYNAMICS
RAPIDLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE ON
SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE
IN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PHASES IN WITH THE STORM
SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER
RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY TIGHTEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVES ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA. A SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE TO 20 KNOTS OR HIGHER
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS ALL OTHER WATERS. THE
WIND WILL THEN VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS MAY
BUILD ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND
THE WIND VEERS TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AND INCREASES TO AT LEAST
15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  62  77  68 /  40  40  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  66  76  67 /  30  30  30  20
MIAMI            85  66  79  68 /  30  30  30  20
NAPLES           79  60  75  59 /  50  30  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM ...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE



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