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000
FXUS62 KKEY 191129 AAA
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
729 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS/VIS AND EAST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. DRIER AIR AND
STABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&
$$
AVIATION...CLR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KMFL 191113
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
713 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. AT KAPF, A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON TURNING THE WINDS TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH PWAT RUNNING WELL BELOW THE JUNE
AVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH A GENERAL LIGHT EAST WIND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWAT IN THE 1.3 TO 1.6 RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS BUT
COULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST COAST METRO REGION AT NIGHT WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO
DROP BELOW 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION, THE NAVY AND GFS AEROSOL
MODELS DEPICT HIGHER AFRICAN DUST CONCENTRATIONS SPREADING INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY LEADING TO HAZY SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN IN SHOWING A
MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A
TROPICAL WAVE. SO THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
RAIN BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES TO THE WEST.
MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 87 78 / 30 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 81 88 80 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 90 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 91 74 92 74 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...55/CWC
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 190828
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
428 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
A surface front currently located over central Alabama and Georgia
is expected to slowly progress southward through the day tomorrow.
Thunderstorm chances will therefore be elevated throughout the
period, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours,
when added lift will be provided from the sea breeze.
Currently, a slow-moving complex of showers and thunderstorms is
located over the western Florida panhandle. This feature will
persist through the overnight hours, possibly producing heavy
rainfall in areas west of Panama City. During the morning hours,
remaining outflow boundaries from this feature could spark more
showers and thunderstorms over our western counties, with a more
widespread chance for precipitation developing in the afternoon as
daytime heating and the sea breeze combine with the aforementioned
front to produce thunderstorm development. After sunset, the
precipitation coverage should diminish, but due to the lingering
front, a low chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain,
especially in our eastern counties.
Temperatures will be seasonable throughout the region, with morning
lows in the low-mid 70s and highs in the upper 80s-low 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]...
The large scale longwave pattern commences with a trough over Wrn
states, ridge over Cntrl into Ern Conus and a trough over Ern
seaboard with Srn end over Nrn FL Ewd into Wrn Atlc. Several
shortwaves will continue to ride down ridge into backside of
trough. At surface low over Ern Canada with quasi-stnry front SSW
across S/Cntrl GA/AL. High pressure remains over Gulf of Mex.
This places local area in the warm sector with moist onshore flow
and lingering convection of this afternoon`s rain will yield
20-40% POPs mainly 00z-06z.
During the rest of the period, westerlies will gradually lift into
Nrn tier states on Fri holding Ern trough in place. The front will
likely stall generally E-W across far Srn GA/Nrn FL on Thurs as a
surface wave develops along it and aided by digging impulse provide
a focus for convection and higher PoPs. Area PWATS along frontal
axis will remain in the 1.7 to 1.9 inch range. A moderate west to
southwest steering flow along west coast seabreeze will push
assocd convection ENE each day so highest pops likely to be near
I-75 each aftn/eve. Weakening front will inch towards coast on
Fri with some model differences i.e. NAM furthest south into
coastal FL, conversely, GFS showing little Swd movement thru Fri
keeping almost of our area in warm sector. ECMWF in between. Thus
GFS POPS noticeably higher than NAM Thurs and Fri. Expect an
unsettled weather pattern with increasing marine convection
especially with impact of nocturnal land breeze. By Sat, upper
trough axis will have shifted Ewd with drying influence of
upstream ridge moving into Ern states while front begins to wash
out with weak high pressure building over the region. However very
light winds will support active seabreeze and sct aftn convection.
Heavy rain and gusty winds are possible especially near frontal axis
and during time of passing impulse. Will lean towards wetter solution
and go with 40-50% W-E POPS Thurs and Fri into eve and 30% on
Sat. However, overall severe threat will remain low with little or
no shear and weak lapse rates, however with cool temps aloft (-9C)
an isolated microburst could not be ruled especially on Thurs.
Otherwise, temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the
lower 90s and lows around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM [Saturday Night through Tuesday]...
Pattern will support seasonal conditions through the early part
of next week with afternoon highs inland in the lower 90s along
with a chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each
day. Overall, rather benign mid and upper level pattern is
expected to become established by the weekend and result in little
day to day change.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 06Z Thursday]...
The slow-moving complex of showers and thunderstorms just west of
ECP could produce lower ceilings/reduced visibility at that terminal
through the overnight hours. Elsewhere, VFR conditions should
persist until tomorrow afternoon, when thunderstorm coverage is
expected to increase across our area. MVFR conditions could occur
at all terminals tomorrow in any thunderstorms that develop, and IFR
conditions will be possible in the stronger storms.
&&
.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge of high pressure, which will extend from the
western Atlantic Ocean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will keep
winds light to moderate out of the southwest until tonight,
with the strongest winds over the nearshore legs with the afternoon
Sea Breeze. Then, a cold front approaching from the northwest will
cause a temporary shift in the winds to light offshore, before it
stalls out and weakens in our vicinity on Thursday. Thereafter, a
new ridge of high pressure will build in to our northeast, giving us
lighter winds out of the east and southeast, with a continuation of
the low seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist conditions will continue throughout the remainder of the week.
Even though a weak frontal boundary will near the area today, drier
air is not expected to move into the region. As a result, red flag
conditions are not anticipated through the next several days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No problems are anticipated in the near future.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 91 71 90 69 90 / 60 30 50 30 50
Panama City 88 73 89 73 86 / 50 30 40 30 40
Dothan 90 71 91 71 90 / 50 30 40 20 40
Albany 91 71 91 70 90 / 60 40 40 30 40
Valdosta 93 69 91 70 91 / 60 40 50 40 50
Cross City 91 71 90 69 91 / 50 30 40 30 50
Apalachicola 88 73 87 72 85 / 50 30 40 30 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey/Lahr
SHORT TERM...Block
LONG TERM...Evans
AVIATION...Godsey/Lahr
MARINE...Block
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Evans/Block
000
FXUS62 KKEY 190820
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
420 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A DEEP BUT
WEAK ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS ELONGATED EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE TILTS SOUTH WITH HEIGHT SUCH THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES PREVAIL ATOP THE TROPOSPHERE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE MEAN LOW-LEVEL RIDGE APPARENTLY HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...CREATING A CONFLUENT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM ABOUT THE
KEYS NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WAS UNUSUALLY ACTIVE AFTER DARK OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS EVIDENT WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE VIA DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES. CLOSER TO HOME...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF THE KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS SINCE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...MOST KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES HAVE
REMAINED FREE OF ANY RAIN WITH AIR TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S.
A FAIRLY LARGE REGION OF DRY AIR ALOFT EVIDENT IN MIMIC-TPW
ANIMATIONS OVER AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
TO THE KEYS AS EASTERLIES ACCELERATES ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. THEREFORE...WE WILL RETAIN LOW
RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK TROUGH IN THE LOW-
LEVEL EASTERLIES ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE DRY PATCH MAY BE IN THE
VICINITY BY SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY ELEVATING THE RAIN CHANCES.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE OWING TO A LACK OF
OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND VARIABLE WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THEREAFTER...A TYPICAL MID-SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH A
MODERATE...FAIRLY DEEP EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH AT
LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES TODAY WILL FRESHEN
TONIGHT...AND SURGE OCCASIONALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT AND SOUTH OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAK WAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS/VIS AND EAST SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10
KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. STABILITY AND DRIER
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...THUS PRECIPITATION HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN EITHER TAF.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 19TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1884...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE ONLY REACHED 80 DEGREES. THIS COLD HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD REMAINS 129 YEARS LATER. FOR COMPARISON...THE
NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN KEY WEST FOR THIS DAY OF THE
YEAR ARE 88 AND 79...RESPECTIVELY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 89 83 89 83 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON 92 84 92 84 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.................KASPER
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS.....CLR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KTBW 190818
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
418 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
STAGNANT U/L PATTERN WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WITH AN U/L RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MAIN U/L WESTERLY FLOW
WILL LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST THURSDAY PINCHING OFF THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. U/L TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
ON FRIDAY AS THE U/L RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA TODAY...WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING NORTH
FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING. SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAIN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED NORTH SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TO
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF
THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW EACH DAY. THIS WILL DECREASE THE ONSHORE FLOW
COMPONENT...WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE INTERIOR AND LIKELY PUSHING WEST BACK TOWARDS THE COAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW
DAYS DUE TO THE VERY WEAK OVERALL FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY EACH DAY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL BUILD EAST AND BRIDGE ACROSS A WEAK MID LEVEL AND
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
NORTH FLORIDA. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN A DEVELOPING EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. THE INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSE
TO THE WEST COAST WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RESIDE EACH DAY...DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST INTO
THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS EACH NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AREAS...AND MID TO
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE
TO THE SEA BREEZE.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW TERMINALS
THROUGH 08Z AND AT KTPA...KPIE...AND KSRQ THROUGH 11Z THIS
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS EXPECTED. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 16Z AND VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN
THE TAF PACKAGE TO COVER THIS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS...WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TO WEST IN THE 8 TO 10 KNOT RANGE
AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE TERMINAL
SITES AFTER 20/02Z TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON THE WATERS WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN HAZARD WILL
BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY CAUSE GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW
CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 78 91 77 / 30 20 50 20
FMY 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 50 20
GIF 92 75 93 75 / 50 20 50 20
SRQ 89 77 90 74 / 30 20 30 20
BKV 90 71 92 70 / 30 20 50 20
SPG 89 81 89 79 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
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000
FXUS62 KJAX 190805
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
400 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIG ACROSS
THE SE U.S. WHICH WILL ENABLE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO SE
GA BY LATE IN THE DAY AND THEN STALLING OUT ACROSS NE FL
ON THURSDAY DUE TO LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY
POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE GA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW WITH AN ACTIVE WEST COAST
SEABREEZE...WARRANTS SCATTERED POPS ELSEWHERE. WHILE THERE IS
LITTLE RISK OF SEVERE WX...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
COOL TEMPS ALOFT (-8 TO -9C). INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP
TEMPS IN CHECK...BUT SHOULD MAKE IT TO AT LEAST 90 ACROSS NE FL
AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
SUN THERE. WILL KEEP LOW END SCATTERED POPS GOING ACROSS SE GA
AND EXTREME NE FL TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK SOUTH AND COMBINE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALTHOUGH WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECTING AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS. WITH THE FRONT STALLED OUT
OVER NE FL ON THURSDAY...AND WITH MID LEVEL IMPULSES TRAVERSING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH END SCATTERED POPS
MOST AREAS...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH. HAVE OPTED TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE WETTER GFS/ECMWF OVER THE DRIER NAM.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY...00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWS SOME DIFFS ON HOW FAR SOUTH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE WILL SAG INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE NAM
DRIVING IT DOWN INTO NE FL...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT NORTH OVER SE
GEORGIA AND THE ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE. HAVE TRIED TO BLEND THESE
SOLUTIONS BUT HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE HIGHER POPS AROUND 50% ACROSS
NE FL AND 30-40% ACROSS SE GA. LIGHT/VARIABLE STEERING FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ACTIVE SEA BREEZE FRONTS ON BOTH COASTS AND NEAR CLIMO MAX
TEMPS AROUND 90 DEGREES.
WEEKEND...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT. THIS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ONSHORE OFF THE ATLANTIC AND
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW THE HIGHEST POPS WILL END UP OVER
THE INLAND AREAS WITH OUTFLOWS/SEA BREEZE FRONTS DOMINATING THE
CONVECTION PATTERN. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 90S INLAND.
MON/TUE/WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THIS WILL TWEAK POPS
DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE HIGHEST POPS INLAND FROM
THE COAST...MAINLY IN THE 30-40% RANGE AND MAINLY DURING THE
AFTN/EVE HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO VALUES FROM THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AT TAF SITES.
THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE GOMEX STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SOME STRATUS AROUND 1000-1500 FEET TOWARD SUNRISE BUT HAVE
KEPT CONDS SCATTERED WITH CURRENT TAF SUITE. CU FIELD TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH MAY BRIEFLY TRIGGER MVFR CIGS BUT NOT
CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO TO INCLUDE YET. THE GENERAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED POPS IN THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW PUSHING ANY ACTIVITY
ALL THE WAY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN ALL TAF
LOCATIONS AFTER 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS THE WATERS. ANOTHER NOCTURNAL SURGE FOR TONIGHT
BUT WINDS NOT AS STRONG AND NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL/WASH OUT ACROSS THE WATERS THU-FRI. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH HEADLINES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 90 70 90 69 / 60 40 40 40
SSI 88 75 85 74 / 50 50 30 30
JAX 91 71 88 70 / 50 40 50 40
SGJ 89 74 87 74 / 50 40 50 50
GNV 92 70 90 70 / 40 30 50 50
OCF 92 71 92 71 / 30 30 50 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PP/JH
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000
FXUS62 KMLB 190733
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY NE ACROSS
THE ATLC WATERS AIDED BY UPPER DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF A UPR LVL S/W
TROUGH OFF THE FL WEST COAST. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
NIGHT THOUGH SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS SRN INTERIOR SECTIONS TO
BREVARD COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE.
TODAY...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG TOWARD THE FL-GA BORDER TODAY
WITH THE SFC RIDGE REMAINING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LOW LVL SW FLOW
NORTH OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE NE TOWARD THE BREVARD COUNTY
COAST INTO EARLY EVENING. HIGHEST MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SRN COUNTIES WITH LOW LVL WSW FLOW ALLOWING SOME
LOWER PWAT AIR FROM NRN LAKE TO NRN VOLUSIA COUNTIES. WILL INDICATE
HIGHEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FROM THE SRN INTERIOR/ERN ORANGE AND
SEMINOLE COUNTIES TOWARD THE COAST FROM SE VOLUSIA INTO BREVARD
WHERE LATE DAY SFC CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE PROFILES WILL FAVOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL GO 50 PCT IN THAT AREA...WELL ABOVE THE
UNCHARACTERISTICALLY LOW GFS MOS POPS TODAY. COULD BE SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH COOL MID LVL TEMPS AROUND -8 AND SOME DRY AIR ALOFT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE AN ISSUE IF STORMS TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREAS AS THEY MOVE NE TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST AND MAINLY LOWER 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND SRN INTERIOR TO MOVE OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC
FROM THE COAST BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED RANGE POPS AT
30 PCT THERE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THURS...MOISTURE LEVELS CREEP UP A BIT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING INTO N FL. AFTER SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR IN
THE AFTERNOON...ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY BACK TOWARD EAST
COAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS VIA WEAK SW COMPONENT THROUGH STEERING
LEVELS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 COAST AND LOWER 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.
FRI-TUE...STILL AWAITING 00Z ECMWF AS OF THIS WRITING BUT TREND OF
GFS OVER THE WEEKEND INDICATES SELY FLOW COMPONENT STARTING TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF BY FRIDAY AND BACKING MORE TO SE-E THIS WEEKEND.
MAY HAVE A BIT OF A MOISTURE INCREASE SAT DUE TO AN EASTERLY WAVE
PASSING BY TO THE SOUTH. NORTHERN/INTERIOR SECTIONS FAVORED FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON FRI. HAVE MAINLY KEPT IN SCATTERED POPS
DAYTIME AND SLIGHT POPS AT NIGHT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS MAY NEED SOME TWEAKS DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF INFLUENCE
WAVE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH TEMPS
GENERALLY UPPER 80S COAST AND NEAR 90/LOW 90S INTERIOR...OVERNIGHT
MINS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT TEMPO SHRA/TSRA MLB VCNTY THRU AT LEAST 09Z...AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING TOWARD SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE
REDEVELOPMENT OF NE-MOVING AFTERNOON STORMS WITH HIGHEST CHCS IN THE
MID TO LATE AFTN FOR KISM/KMCO/KSFB AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR
KMLB/KVRB AS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY PUSHES TOWARD THE EAST COAST.
&&
.MARINE...
S/SSW WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 10
KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE USED A BLEND OF
SWAN AND WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FOR SEAS WITH 2-3 FT NEAR THE
COAST AND UP TO 4 FT OFFSHORE. FOR TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AND
OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THUR-SUN...WINDS BACK FROM S-SW 10KT OR LESS THURS TOWARD E-SE AND
PICK UP MORE INTO 10-15KT RANGE DURING THIS WEEKEND. SEA HEIGHTS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND SHAVED BACK GUIDANCE VALUES TO INDICATE
THIS SINCE WNAWAVE AND SWAN CONTINUE TO RUN A LITTLE HIGH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 91 74 90 74 / 40 30 50 30
MCO 93 74 92 74 / 50 20 50 30
MLB 90 75 89 76 / 50 30 50 40
VRB 89 75 89 74 / 50 30 50 30
LEE 93 75 93 75 / 40 20 50 30
SFB 93 75 93 75 / 50 20 50 30
ORL 93 76 93 76 / 50 20 50 30
FPR 88 74 89 74 / 40 30 50 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....GLITTO
000
FXUS62 KMFL 190700
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH PWAT RUNNING WELL BELOW THE JUNE
AVERAGE. THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH A GENERAL LIGHT EAST WIND. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PWAT IN THE 1.3 TO 1.6 RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS BUT
COULD BE CLOSER TO THE COAST ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER DIRECTLY BENEATH THE SURFACE RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST COAST METRO REGION AT NIGHT WITH READINGS STRUGGLING TO
DROP BELOW 80 DEGREES. IN ADDITION, THE NAVY AND GFS AEROSOL
MODELS DEPICT HIGHER AFRICAN DUST CONCENTRATIONS SPREADING INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY LEADING TO HAZY SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN IN SHOWING A
MOISTURE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A
TROPICAL WAVE. SO THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
RAIN BEFORE THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK ONCE
THE WAVE PASSES TO THE WEST.
&&
.MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 78 87 78 / 30 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 81 88 80 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 90 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 91 74 92 74 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE
000
FXUS62 KMFL 190557
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
157 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE INTERIOR ARE BEGINNING TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A FEW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE NAPLES AREA THIS MORNING. INCLUDED
VCTS FOR NAPLES UNTIL 7Z. FOR WEDNESDAY THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE EAST COAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOP. NAPLES COULD ALSO SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 78 88 79 / 30 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 80 89 81 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 90 78 89 79 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 91 74 91 74 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE
000
FXUS62 KKEY 190233
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LOWER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
FLORIDA...RESULTING IN GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING INDICATED A FAIRLY MOIST
PROFILE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INHIBITION. WITH THAT SAID...AFTER
A FEW EARLIER CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN ALL BUT ABSENT FROM THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE SOUTHEASTERLIES IS KEEPING A HUMID
AIR MASS ACROSS THE KEYS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 70S...AND
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY WARM...IN THE LOWER 80S.
SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT FURTHER
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...DRYING AND
WARMING ALOFT WILL INCREASE ENVIRONMENTAL STABILITY. WHILE ISOLATED
CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...EXPECT THE CHANCE OF RAIN TO
TREND DOWNWARDS OVERNIGHT. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND
LIKELY WILL NOT UPDATE THE LOCAL FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS...DUE TO
RIDGING TO OUR NORTH. ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES MADE IN THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1972...TROPICAL STORM
AGNES PASSED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE OUTER
RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL STORM AGNES SPAWNED AT LEAST THREE...TO AS
MANY AS SIX TORNADOES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING AN EF2 TORNADO
IN BIG COPPITT KEY...AN EF2 TORNADO IN KEY WEST...AND AN EF1 TORNADO
IN CONCH KEY. ABOUT 40 PEOPLE WERE INJURED IN BIG COPPITT KEY...
MAKING THE BIG COPPITT KEY TORNADO THE WORST IN THE HISTORY OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS IN TERMS OF TOTAL NUMBER OF INJURIES. TOTAL DAMAGE WAS
ESTIMATED AT JUST OVER $2.7 MILLION (2013 USD). TROPICAL STORM AGNES
DUMPED 2.67 INCHES OF RAIN AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON
JUNE 18TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 41 YEARS
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 190153
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
953 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
COLLISIONS BETWEEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HAVE GENERATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND HAS
ALREADY REACHED THE SRN VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD COAST AND ADDITONAL
CONVECTION MAY ALSO PUSH INTO SRN BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER
COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA AROUND TO
SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL ALSO DECREASE LEADING TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN ISO SHRA/TSRA SOUTH AND EAST
OF KMCO THROUGH 04Z. VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WITH ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AGAIN INTO THE AFT.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS UP TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH LATE EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD DAYBREAK. SEAS UP
TO 3-4 FT.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/KELLY
000
FXUS62 KTAE 190121
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Updated PoPs for both the 00 to 06 and 06 to 12 UTC time frames
tonight, with likely PoPs still continuing across parts of the FL
Panhandle, all of SE AL, and a good portion of SW and SC GA. A few
strong storms with gusty winds (40-50mph) and frequent lightning
will remain possible over western portions of the CWA for the next
few hours, until the diurnal support for the convection dies off.
After 06 UTC, lowered PoPs to 20% over the interior, but increased
them up to 20s over the Coastal Waters to account for any Land
Breeze convection. Otherwise, the current fcst appears well on
track, and only minor tweaks were applied elsewhere.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Friday]...
Weather will be a bit unsettled for the rest of the week as a slow
moving surface front, extending e-w across the Appalachians today,
sags swd into the area tomorrow and Thursday. This front will stall
generally e-w across far srn GA/nrn FL and provide a focus for
higher PoPs each afternoon. Have upped PoPs a bit given the location
of the front and the potential for a weak surface wave to form along
it, which will support scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Overall severe threat will remain low with little or
no shear and weak lapse rates, however an isolated microburst could
not be ruled out Wednesday. Otherwise, temperatures will remain near
normal with highs in the lower 90s and lows around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
Pattern will support seasonal conditions through the early part
of next week with afternoon highs inland in the lower 90s along
with a chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each
day. Overall, rather benign mid and upper level pattern is
expected to become established by the weekend and result in little
day to day change.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Beginning 00Z Wednesday] Showers and thunderstorms are coming to an
end this evening and the primary concern will be the development of
low CIGS. Expecting most sites to drop into the MVFR CIG category
between 06Z and 10Z. Terminals that saw rainfall this afternoon
could see some MVFR VIS restrictions and MVFR/IFR ceilings.
&&
.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge of high pressure, which will extend from the
western Atlantic Ocean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will keep
winds light to moderate out of the southwest until Wednesday night,
with the strongest winds over the nearshore legs with the afternoon
Sea Breeze. Then, a cold front approaching from the northwest will
cause a temporary shift in the winds to light offshore, before it
stalls out and weakens in our vicinity on Thursday. Thereafter, a
new ridge of high pressure will build in to our northeast, giving
us lighter winds out of the east and southeast, with a continuation
of the low seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will remain
above critical levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No problems are anticipated in the near future.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 91 72 90 69 / 20 60 40 50 30
Panama City 77 90 73 89 73 / 30 60 40 30 30
Dothan 74 90 71 92 71 / 60 50 30 40 20
Albany 74 90 71 92 71 / 60 50 30 40 20
Valdosta 73 90 70 92 70 / 30 60 40 50 30
Cross City 73 92 71 91 69 / 20 50 30 40 30
Apalachicola 77 90 72 88 71 / 20 50 40 30 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...Evans
LONG TERM...Evans
AVIATION...Moore/Walsh
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...Evans
000
FXUS62 KJAX 190116
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
916 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...CONVECTION CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL AND SW
GA HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND PASSAGE OF
UPPER SHORT WAVE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL SHIFT WEAKENING CONVECTION TO OUR NW INTO SE GA LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT ACTIVE DAY FOR SE GA ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT
SINKS SE AND SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN FORECAST FOR SE GA TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOW CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT WE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS UNTIL WE CAN GET A
BETTER FEEL FOR TIMING.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE
AND A SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
OFFSHORE ZONES TONIGHT. NOCTURNAL SURGE WILL SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT.
SEAS MAY TOP OUT AT 5 FEET NEAR THE 60 NM MARKER...OTHERWISE SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 3 TO 4 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 90 71 91 / 30 50 40 50
SSI 76 87 75 86 / 30 50 50 30
JAX 73 90 71 90 / 20 50 40 50
SGJ 74 90 73 88 / 10 50 40 40
GNV 72 91 71 91 / 10 40 20 50
OCF 73 91 72 93 / 10 30 20 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/SHULER/MCALLISTER
000
FXUS62 KTBW 190043
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST. LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS BUT OVERALL FORECAST APPEARS TO
ON TRACK. SOME ISOLATED PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW
AREAS...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND NO FOG WAS ADDED
TO THE FORECAST. AREAS THAT SAW RAIN TODAY MAY HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING SOME VERY PATCHY DITCH FOG. CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WARM AND MUGGY WEATHER FOR THE
CWA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTH TO SW FLOW AREA
WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND THIS EVENING AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY...THEN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY NEAR THE COAST AND MOVE INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE SW FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. OFFSHORE OF THE NATURE COAST WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 10-15 KTS. SEAS WILL RUN GENERALLY 2 FEET
NEAR SHORE AND CLOSER TO 3 WELL OFFSHORE. DURING THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY
WINDS UP NORTH SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BRINGING SEAS BACK DOWN TO 2
FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 91 77 91 / 10 30 20 40
FMY 77 92 75 93 / 20 40 20 50
GIF 75 92 75 92 / 30 50 20 50
SRQ 76 89 75 90 / 10 20 20 30
BKV 72 91 71 92 / 10 30 20 40
SPG 79 89 80 90 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...11/MCKAUGHAN
LONG TERM/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
000
FXUS62 KMFL 190040 AAB
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH REST OF
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE REMOVING THE POPS OVER
THESE AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
FAR ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY WEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREA AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND NAPLES BY 2Z...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY PCPN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR WED.
POPS WED AFTN ARE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT...HIGHEST AT KAPF AND
HAVENT BEEN PLACED IN 0Z TAFS. ESE WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KTS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE INFLUENCING THE LOCAL WEATHER. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH NIGHT. INTERIOR
HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 102-106 DEGREE RANGE EACH
DAY. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AT FLL...WARMEST MINIMUM RECORDS COULD
BE BROKEN EACH NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MODEL PWS DECREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.9"
WEDNESDAY TO 1.3-1.5" BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE NAVY AND GFS AEROSOL MODELS DEPICT HIGHER DUST
CONCENTRATIONS SPREADING INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HAZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO NEAR
THE 2" MARK BY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 78 88 / 10 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 89 80 89 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 80 90 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 76 91 74 91 / 10 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 190010
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
810 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND NAPLES BY 2Z...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY PCPN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR WED.
POPS WED AFTN ARE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT...HIGHEST AT KAPF AND
HAVENT BEEN PLACED IN 0Z TAFS. ESE WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KTS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE INFLUENCING THE LOCAL WEATHER. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH NIGHT. INTERIOR
HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 102-106 DEGREE RANGE EACH
DAY. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AT FLL...WARMEST MINIMUM RECORDS COULD
BE BROKEN EACH NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MODEL PWS DECREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.9"
WEDNESDAY TO 1.3-1.5" BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE NAVY AND GFS AEROSOL MODELS DEPICT HIGHER DUST
CONCENTRATIONS SPREADING INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HAZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO NEAR
THE 2" MARK BY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 78 88 / 20 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 89 80 89 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 78 90 78 89 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 91 74 91 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
000
FXUS62 KJAX 182156
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
556 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.CURRENTLY..
LATE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS...WITH ATLANTIC RIDGING
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FL. ALOFT...RIDGING IS CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD...WITH ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF
THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
WAS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE ARKLATEX REGION...AND
THIS FEATURE IS MOVING EASTWARD WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW. ATLANTIC
RIDGING HAS PROVIDED FOR A SUBSIDENT ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF
NORTHEAST FL AND SOUTHEAST GA TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FL HAVE LARGELY DISSOLVED.
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
REMAINED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GA. WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES PEAKED IN THE LOW/MID 90S TODAY. DRIER AIR
ALOFT MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON...AND DEWPOINTS
HAVE MOSTLY FALLEN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 70 DEGREES...KEEPING
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK...BUT STILL NEAR 100 DEGREES.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A BROAD TROUGH WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHICH WILL PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEAST GA BY LATE WED. SINCE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL GA
IS POISED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD...KEPT WIDELY SCATTERED POPS IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS FOR SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. NEAR CLIMO LOWS...LOW/MID 70S...ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER
SOUTHEAST GA BY LATE WED. A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
FLOW WILL PERSIST...WITH LATE MORNING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE...MIGRATING EASTWARD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HAVE LEFT HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR ALL
OF SOUTHEAST GA AND FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FL. INCREASING CLOUDS AND AFTERNOON RAINFALL
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS CLOSER TO CLIMO...GENERALLY NEAR 90 TO THE
LOWER 90S. AS THE FRONT STALLS AND SLOWLY WEAKENS FROM WED NIGHT
THROUGH THURS NIGHT...EXPECT AT LEAST HIGH-END SCATTERED DIURNAL
COVERAGE ON THURS...WITH ACTIVITY SPILLING OVER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS AS MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES PERSIST. NEAR CLIMO HIGHS
AND LOWS WILL CONTINUE AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT PREVAILS
OVER OUR REGION.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS TROPICAL
WAVE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES NEAR CLIMO
VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z. AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI THROUGH 06Z.
OTHERWISE...IFR/LIFR CIGS NEAR OR JUST BELOW 500 FT ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 09Z-13Z AT GNV AND VQQ...WITH THESE CIGS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
JAX...CRG...AND SSI. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE AFTERNOON TAFS. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT GNV AND
VQQ LATE TONIGHT...DEPENDING ON WHETHER SURFACE WINDS DECREASE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE UP THROUGH 10000 FEET...WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AND DECREASING TO 10-15 KTS AFTER 15Z. SURFACE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET...AND GUSTS NEAR 15
KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z ON WED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS SURGE THIS EVENING TO 15-20
KTS. SEAS OFFSHORE MAY APPROACH 5 FEET FOLLOWING THIS WIND SURGE
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. WINDS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY
BRIEFLY EXCEED 15 KTS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...BUT WE ARE
NOT EXPECTING A PROLONGED SURGE. OUR LOCAL GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN ON
WED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED FROM FROM WED THROUGH AT LEAST FRI BEFORE THE FRONT
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE ON THURS...AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR NORTHEAST.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 90 71 91 / 30 50 40 50
SSI 76 87 75 86 / 30 50 50 30
JAX 73 90 71 90 / 20 50 40 50
SGJ 74 90 73 88 / 10 50 40 40
GNV 72 91 71 91 / 10 40 20 50
OCF 73 91 72 93 / 10 30 20 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
NELSON/SANDRIK/MCALLISTER
000
FXUS62 KKEY 181940
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
330 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 90 DEGREES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING CYCLICAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS....WITH THE
MAJORITY AND STRONGEST ACTIVITY 5 TO 20 NM NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
SURFACE WISE...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE IS HOLDING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR 15 KNOTS ALONG THE REEF.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED...DEEP TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE ALIGNED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL HELP DRIVE A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER WESTWARD AND INTO OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SEASONABLE SYNOPTIC
SCALE REGIME IS WELL DEPICTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS WHICH REVEAL
BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE (PWAT 1.30 INCHES OR LESS)...A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL INVERSION BELOW 850 MB ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STEEP...NEARLY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE ABOVE. WITH THAT SAID...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY
ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT IT APPEARS THAT RAIN CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE REMOVED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...RESPLENDENT SUNSHINE...ALBEIT MILKY SKIES AT
TIMES...WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TO NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S DUE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
AND LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW AND MID LEVEL
UNDULATION...ALBEIT IN VARY DEGREES OF INTENSITY OVER THE BAHAMAS
FRIDAY NIGHT MIGRATING WEST AND TRACKING ACROSS OUR REGION SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE PERSISTENT AND CLIMATOLOGICAL FAVORED
DEEP LAYERED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL RELOCATE SLIGHTLY INTO
NORTH FLORIDA AND STRENGTHEN. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE UNCERTAINTY ON
THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PROMPT LOW CHANCE
POPS TO BE RETAINED THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING
IN TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURE
WISE...AMPLE INTENSE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
NEAR 90 DEGREES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 80 AWAY FROM ANY
DOWNPOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY EVENING WHEN MODERATE
TO FRESH EAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST EXPECTED BEYOND 20 NM SOUTH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. WITH THAT SAID...AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THEREAFTER...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST WINDS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THIS
WEEKEND...WITH NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 18/06Z AT BOTH THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. DUE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN CLOUD STREETS ORIENTED
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH 19/00Z. NO MENTION IN TAF DUE TO THE
DIFFICULTY IN TIMING OF THE ISOLATED VARIETY OF PULSING SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1972...2.67 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR RAINFALL ON JUNE
18TH...WHICH STANDS 41 YEARS LATER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 82 89 83 89 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON 84 92 84 92 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA ACQUISITION......MP/LK
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 181921
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
321 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A CLOSED LOW WAS SOUTHWEST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...RIDGING
REACHED FROM THE NORTHERN MEXICAN BORDER TO THE PRAIRIE
PROVINCES...TROUGHING FROM QUEBEC TO THE GULF COAST CONTAINED A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES NEAR THE MID-WEST AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND A RIDGE REACHED ACROSS FL FROM THE GULF TO THE
ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SPRAWLED OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES...ONE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A SECOND FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST... AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC RIDGED WEST OVER
FL TO THE GULF.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH...OVER THE CONUS...SLIDE EAST WITH
THE RIDGE REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS-LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHILE THE TROUGH MOVES TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD WITH THE SOUTHERN END
OVER/NEAR NORTHERN FL. MEANWHILE THE RIDGE ACROSS FL CONTINUES OVER
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHERN MOST FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
AS NOTED IN THE SYNOPSIS SECTION/ SAGS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHERN STATES INTO NORTHERN FL. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
WEST INTO THE GULF WITH IT/S AXIS MEANDERING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN FL.
THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS PRETTY MUCH UN-CHANGED.
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RESIDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WESTERLY FLOW...ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...DOMINATES. THERE
WILL BE SOME MORNING SHOWERS/STORMS WHICH PUSH FROM THE GULF ONSHORE
AND INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY...AIDED BY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COLLIDING WITH
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. POPS WILL
STAY IN THE HIGH SCATTERED RANGE...WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
FROM WED TO THU DUE TO MOISTURE INCREASING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SETTLES TOWARD THE AREA. PWATS GO FROM 1.4-1.5 WED TO 1.7-1.8
THU. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
LOWS...HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE. WARMING GULF WATERS
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN DEW POINTS...WHICH ALONG WITH
ONSHORE FLOW...WILL PUSH MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES TO AROUND 100
DEGREES.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-NEXT TUESDAY)...
WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WITH REMNANT WEAK U/L TROUGH
TRAPPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. PINCHED OFF FROM THE U/L FLOW.
AN U/L RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY...AND BRIDGE OVER THE WEAK TROUGH AND
EXTEND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TRANSITION DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING...AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR AND PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE COAST. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE INCREASING EAST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...WITH HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH WEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT AND
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM WATERS AID LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY ALONG LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. SIMILAR PATTERN ON
MONDAY BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AS THE U/L
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS AT NIGHT AND NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY
EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND KLAL WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAUSING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY AOB 30 PERCENT...HAVE LEFT AS VCTS FOR
THE TAF PACKAGE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY.
&&
.MARINE...
SW AND WEST WINDS ENHANCED BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL GIVE WAY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH MORE LIMITED SEA BREEZES BY THE WEEKEND
AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES FROM SOUTHERN FL TO THE SE U.S. WINDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS BUT MAY INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE AT TIMES DURING WEEKEND. THE PRIMARY MARINE CONCERN WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPS THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 91 77 91 / 10 30 20 40
FMY 77 92 75 93 / 20 40 20 50
GIF 75 92 75 92 / 20 50 20 50
SRQ 76 89 75 90 / 10 20 20 30
BKV 72 91 71 92 / 10 30 20 40
SPG 79 89 80 90 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...OGLESBY
AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KMLB 181916
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EVOLVING PRETTY MUCH AS FORECAST.
LOCAL 88D`S SHOWING SPORADIC DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
WCSB ATTM AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE INTERIOR. ECSB HAS FORMED FROM
BREVARD CO SOUTHWARD..MAKING SLOW INLAND PROGRESS ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST COS. BOUNDARY IS PINNED TO COASTAL BREVARD CO AND
HAS YET TO FORM FARTHER NORTH (AND IS UNLIKELY TO DO SO).
TONIGHT...WILL RUN WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO ADDRESS ONGOING
CONVECTION WHICH IS JUST NOW REACHING THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CARRY SLOWLY EAST TOWARD THE EAST CENTRAL COAST WELL
INTO THIS EVENING. MINS ONCE AGAIN IN THE L-M70S...WITH SOME U70S
ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF MARTIN/ST LUCIE.
WED-THU...FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE ATOP EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
NEAR LAKE OKEE...BEFORE STARTING TO DRIFT NORTH INTO THE SRN CWA BY
THU NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SAGGING
BAND OF HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE NRN HALF CWA AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS IS THE PREMISE FOR GOING WITH
HIGHER POPS OVER THE NORTH (50) ON THU COMPARED TO AREAWIDE 40 FOR
TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOUT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
CLIMO...BUT DID SHAVE A BIT OFF THE M90S THAT THE 12Z MAV SHOWED IN
SOME LOCALES THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
FRI-TUE (PREV)...LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME SE ON FRIDAY WITH ECMWF
INDICATING DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL FL. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP 30 POPS SE CSTL SECTIONS AND 40 PCT FOR INTERIOR AND NORTH. THE
GFS STILL HINTS AT THE NRN EXTENSION OF AN EASTERLY WAVE AFFECTING
SRN FL SAT-SAT NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF BY SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP POPS HIGHER SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR N CSTL SECTIONS WHERE SE FLOW
SHOULD PUSH E COAST BREEZE INLAND. FOR SUNDAY...THINK SRN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS SHOWS
STRONGER ESE LOW LVL MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYER DRYING COMPLIMENTS OF
THE MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE SE ATLC COAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO 20-30 PCT NEXT MONDAY AND SLGT CHC/20 FOE TUE WITH RELATIVELY
DRIER LOW LVL ESE FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS SHOWN WEAKENING TREND SINCE 18Z
AS IT APPROACHES THE SFB-MCO-ISM. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 20Z-22Z...HOWEVER STILL EXPECT VERY LATE
INTERACTION WITH ATLC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE EAST COAST. COULD SEE A FEW
STRONG STORMS TOWARD SUNSET AND A FEW HOURS INTO THE EVENING IN THE
DAB-MLB CORRIDOR...PERHAPS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD VRB-FPR.
&&
.MARINE...PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL
FL WILL KEEP WINDS OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SE AS RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS NORTH FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. SEAS 2-3FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO 4FT WELL OFFSHORE THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BOTH SWAN AND WNAWAVE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
RUN A GOOD FT TOO HIGH OVER THE 20-60NM LEGS...SO TRIMMED THOSE
VALUES BACK SOME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 92 73 90 / 20 40 30 50
MCO 73 94 74 93 / 20 40 20 50
MLB 75 90 75 90 / 30 40 30 40
VRB 75 90 75 89 / 30 40 30 30
LEE 74 94 75 93 / 10 40 20 50
SFB 75 95 75 94 / 20 40 20 50
ORL 75 94 76 94 / 20 40 20 50
FPR 74 89 74 90 / 20 40 30 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/METWATCH....BOWEN
000
FXUS62 KTAE 181859
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
259 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
The long wave pattern this afternoon features a big upper low off
the Pacific NW coast, a ridge over the Rockies and a trough over
eastern North America. The flow remains broadly cyclonic over the
Southeastern states with some weak impulses of energy moving
through it. A more substantial short wave is noted over eastern TX
and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface analysis shows the
subtropical ridge axis extending westward from the northern Bahamas
across the FL Peninsula and central Gulf of Mexico. A cold front
extends from the central Appalachians southwest across the northern
gulf states to TX. Radars show generally isolated thunderstorms
moving across the region. Overall, the severe weather threat still
looks rather low for the rest of the day into the evening with weak
deep layer flow and mid level lapse rates. SPC has a fairly large
portion of the Southeast in a 5% risk area, which looks reasonable.
PoPs tonight will range from likely (60) northwest to 20 southeast.
Overnight lows will be just a couple of degrees above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Friday]...
Weather will be a bit unsettled for the rest of the week as a slow
moving surface front, extending e-w across the Appalahachians today,
sags swd into the area tomorrow and Thursday. This front will
stall generally e-w across far srn GA/nrn FL and provide a focus
for higher PoPs each afternoon. Have upped PoPs a bit given the
location of the front and the potential for a weak surface wave to
form along it, which will support scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Overall severe threat will remain low with
little or no shear and weak lapse rates, however an isolated
microburst could not be ruled out Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures will remain near normal with highs in the lower 90s
and lows around 70.
&&
.LONG TERM [Friday Night through Tuesday]...
Pattern will support seasonal conditions through the early part
of next week with afternoon highs inland in the lower 90s along
with a chance of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each
day. Overall, rather benign mid and upper level pattern is
expected to become established by the weekend and result in little
day to day change.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 18Z Tuesday]...
The primary concern for the remaining afternoon and evening hours will
be scattered thunderstorms currently moving across our forecast
area. The second concern will be in the early morning hours before
sunrise where IFR CIGs and patchy fog are expected. Forecast
confidence in bringing terminals down to LIFR at this time is low,
so will defer to the evening and/or overnight TAF package. VFR
conditions should prevail shortly after sunrise.
&&
.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge of high pressure, which will extend from the
western Atlantic Ocean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will keep
winds light to moderate out of the southwest until Wednesday night,
with the strongest winds over the nearshore legs with the afternoon
Sea Breeze. Then, a cold front approaching from the northwest will
cause a temporary shift in the winds to light offshore, before it
stalls out and weakens in our vicinity on Thursday. Thereafter, a
new ridge of high pressure will build in to our northeast, giving
us lighter winds out of the east and southeast, with a continuation
of the low seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will remain
above critical levels.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No problems are anticipated in the near future.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 75 91 72 90 69 / 20 60 40 50 30
Panama City 77 90 73 89 73 / 30 60 40 30 30
Dothan 74 90 71 92 71 / 60 50 30 40 20
Albany 74 90 71 92 71 / 50 50 30 40 20
Valdosta 73 90 70 92 70 / 30 60 40 50 30
Cross City 73 92 71 91 69 / 20 50 30 40 30
Apalachicola 77 90 72 88 71 / 20 50 40 30 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM/FIRE WX...Wool
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...Evans
MARINE...Gould
AVIATION...Wool/Navarro
000
FXUS62 KMFL 181814
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE INFLUENCING THE LOCAL WEATHER. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH NIGHT. INTERIOR
HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 102-106 DEGREE RANGE EACH
DAY. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AT FLL...WARMEST MINIMUM RECORDS COULD
BE BROKEN EACH NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MODEL PWS DECREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.9"
WEDNESDAY TO 1.3-1.5" BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE NAVY AND GFS AEROSOL MODELS DEPICT HIGHER DUST
CONCENTRATIONS SPREADING INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HAZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO NEAR
THE 2" MARK BY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED TO THE WEST
OF MOST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY...SO DROPPED VCSH
FROM MOST OF THE TAF SITES. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR
KAPF...A THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INLAND...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 78 88 / 20 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 89 80 89 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 78 90 78 89 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 91 74 91 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KTAE 181456
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1056 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
.NEAR TERM [Until 6 PM This Evening]...
The long wave pattern this morning features a big upper low off
the Pacific NW coast, a ridge over the Rockies and a trough over
eastern North America. The flow is broadly cyclonic over the
Southeastern states with some weak impulses of energy moving
through it. A more substantial short wave is noted over TX.
Surface analysis shows the subtropical ridge axis extending
westward from the northern Bahamas across the FL Peninsula and
central Gulf of Mexico. This position puts the forecast area in a
region of southwesterly low to mid level flow. Inspection of the
12 UTC KTAE sounding shows a type 5 sea breeze regime (strong
southwesterly 1000-700mb mean vector winds). This regime typical
favors a high PoP. However, there are some synoptic influences to
throw in today as well including the aforementioned weak impulses
and a cold front approaching slowly across the Tennessee and
Lower Mississippi Valleys. Radars show scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving across our western zones late this
morning. The modified morning sounding shows an afternoon CAPE of
around 2400 J/kg and a PW of only 1.25 inches. Higher PW is noted
to the north of the area and is forecast to reach our northwestern
zones. We upped PoPs prior to 18 UTC to account for radar trends.
Afternoon Pops were only slightly modified to increase them across
central and western portions of the Florida Big Bend. Areas
further east will remain in the drier air. Overall, the severe
weather threat looks lower than yesterday, but not zero. SPC has a
fairly large portion of the Southeast in a 5% risk area, which
looks reasonable. Looking at the various CAMs, it looks like our
primary threat would be isolated damaging winds across our
northwestern zones.
&&
.SHORT TERM [6 PM This Evening Through Thursday]...
An upper level trough will continue to deepen through the local
region with a decent lobe of energy passing overhead on Wednesday.
At the surface, a cold front will drop down from the north and lay
out west to east across north Florida Wednesday. A weak wave may
develop on the boundary in the panhandle Wednesday morning and
translate to the east. All this coming together combined with deep
layer moisture and daytime heating should bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to the Tri-state region
Wednesday. Will show slight/chance PoPs for the overnight periods.
Temperatures will remain near the seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Some days will likely have slightly
higher PoPs than others depending on the timing of individual weak
shortwaves, which is hard to forecast in the long term. No major
synoptic scale systems are expected to impact the area during the
period. Temperatures are expected to remain near their seasonal
averages.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Wednesday] MVFR Cigs at KDHN, KVLD, and KABY til 14Z.
After this period VFR conditions will generally prevail. However,
after 18Z convection possible. DHN and ABY will have the greatest
chance for TSRA and will go with VCSH 18Z-00Z and PROB30 19z-23z
there. Confidence in POPs too low elsewhere for inclusion. MVFR
vsbys/cigs likely in any stronger storms. VFR conditions return
after sundown. After 08z, expect MVFR CIGS/VSBYS to develop at VLD
and TLH and likely at DHN. Brief IFR CIGS possible at VLD near
sundown.
&&
.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this week, yielding light to occasionally
moderate southwest to west flow and seas of 3 ft or less. A cold
front will approach from the north and stall over or just north
of the waters Wednesday or Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will
remain above locally critical levels. The combination of deep
mixing and somewhat stronger winds aloft will help dispersion values
climb above 75 this afternoon area wide and for portions of North FL
on Wed afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
There are no problems foreseen on area rivers for at least the next
several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 93 74 90 71 90 / 40 20 60 40 50
Panama City 89 75 88 76 90 / 50 20 60 40 40
Dothan 93 73 91 72 91 / 50 40 50 30 40
Albany 93 73 92 71 91 / 50 40 50 30 40
Valdosta 92 72 93 70 90 / 30 30 50 40 50
Cross City 90 73 89 72 91 / 10 10 50 30 50
Apalachicola 88 75 88 75 86 / 30 10 50 40 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM/HYDROLOGY...Wool
SHORT TERM/MARINE...Barry
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Block
MARINE...Wool/Barry
000
FXUS62 KKEY 181348
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2011
A DRY PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.
LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ONLY A FEW SMALL AND LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE
WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. SURFACE WISE...A
PERSISTENT...EAST-WEST ALIGNED WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND WELL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ACROSS
OUR MARINE AREA...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE (PWAT 1.93 INCHES) BUT WITH A FEW DISTINCT DRY AND STABLE
LAYERS BELOW 850 MB. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY REACHES UP TO NEAR
600 MB...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND CHAOTIC.
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING WITH A DEEP
TROPOSPHERIC...EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE HOLDING FIRM ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA PROVIDING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN A LIGHT SOUTHEAST
TRAJECTORY. FURTHERMORE...WITHIN THE FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...A
CHUNK OF THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER (SAL) HAS MIGRATED INTO THE BAHAMIAN
CHAIN AND INTO OUR REGION. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT ADDITIONAL DRIER
AIR ALONG WITH AN INVERSION NEAR 850 MB TO BE EVIDENT IN THIS
EVENINGS SOUNDING. AN ABUNDANCE OF INTENSE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB NEAR 90 DEGREES. DUE TO DRIER AND STABLE
AIR FILTERING IN...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE PUBLIC ZONE FORECAST TO
REMOVE TRANSITIONAL WORDING AND LOWER POPS TO 10 PERCENT.
&&
.MARINE...
OUR MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13 KNOTS
AT 1 AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE KBYX
VWP. WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEAKENING A TAD DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING ON THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...EXPECT A SUBTLE LULL ON KEYS COASTAL WATERS MAINLY ON
THE WATERS NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. HENCE...WILL MAINTAIN A
DECREASING TREND TO NEAR 10 KNOTS ON THESE WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS ON THE STRAITS. OTHERWISE...WILL INSERT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM FOR OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 18/06Z AT BOTH THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. DUE TO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EXPECT ISLAND CLOUD LINES TO FORM...BUT THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD TRANSPORT THESE CLOUD LINES NORTH OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THEY DEVELOP.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1972...2.67 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR RAINFALL ON JUNE
18TH...WHICH STANDS 41 YEARS LATER.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................BWC
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 181348
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...METARS AND CCAFS PROFILER WIND DATA PLACE SFC/LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXES INVOF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WITH LIGHT-MODERATE SWRLY FLOW
OVER ECFL.
MORNING RAOBS FROM TBW/XMR INDICATE SEASONAL MEAN PWAT VALUES OF
AROUND 1.7"...WITH SOME INDICATION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR LURKING
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. THE WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HELPED SPUR LAST NIGHT`S INTENSE STORMS HAS
MOVED EAST AND OFFSHORE...LEAVING A NEUTRAL TO SUBSIDENT MID LEVEL
(H50 NVA) PATTERN IN PLACE.
LAV/MAV POPS REMAIN IN THE TEENS OR LESS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER...TBW
RAOB ARGUES FOR A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE WCSB TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...WHILE THE ECSB REMAINS CLOSE TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS...AND PUSHES INLAND FARTHER TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE. GIVEN
THAT THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT ISN`T AS SUPPORTIVE FOR STORMS AS IT
WAS ON MONDAY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WCSB CONVECTION MAY HAVE
A HARD TIME SUSTAINING COVERAGE/VIGOR AS IT PUSHES EWD INTO THE MLB
CWA... AND MAY WIND UP HAVING TO WAIT FOR LATE DAY COLLISION OF
BOUNDARIES NEAR THE EAST COAST TO REALIZE 30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE.
HIGHER POP NUMBERS OVER THE NORTH-CTRL INTERIOR WILL DEPEND UPON
WHETHER WCSB STORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEMSELVES SINCE PROSPECTS FOR ECSB
MAKING SIG INLAND PUSH FROM VOLUSIA/BREVARD LOOK MINIMAL. TEMPTED
TO TRIM BACK POPS TO 20-30 FOR THE NORTH-CTRL INTERIOR...BUT EARLY
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CU FIELD ALONG NATURE COAST IS ALREADY
PRETTY HEALTHY. WILL WATCH RADAR/SAT TRENDS FOR A COUPLE HOURS...BUT
DON`T SEE THE NEED TO TWEAK POP NUMBERS JUST YET.
MODELS POPS CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER CLIMO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE GFS BARELY MENTIONING RAIN AT 10-15 PERCENT. THEY ALL SEEM
TO BE KEYING RATHER HEAVILY ON THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE GULF MOVING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY AND INHIBITING COVERAGE. THIS WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
MAXES IN THE L-M90S FOR ALL BUT THE TREASURE BARRIER ISLANDS OF
MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COUNTIES....WHERE ECSB WILL BE EARLIEST TO FORM.
&&
.AVIATION...STILL AT THE POINT WHERE WE CAN RUN WITH VCTS RATHER
THAN TEMPO FOR ALL SITES GIVEN 30-40 PCT PRECIP CHANCES. UPCOMING
18Z TAF PACKAGE MAY INCLUDE SOME 2-HR TEMPO GROUPS BASED ON WHAT
RADAR LOOKS LIKE BY THEN. BEST CHANCE FOR THE LEE-ISM 19Z-21Z...
MCO-SFB 20-22Z AND DAB-TIX-MLB AFT 21Z. MLB-SUA RUNS SMALL CHANCE
FOR EARLIER TS FORMING ALONG ECSB BTWN 16Z-20Z.
&&
.MARINE...S-SW SURFACE FLOW <15KT JUST NORTH OF RIDGE AXIS WILL KEEP
SEAS IN TE 2-3FT RANGE FOR ALL BUT THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS BEYOND
30-40NM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET (3-4FT THERE). MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS
TO WAVE HGT GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AT LOCAL BUOYS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX....BOWEN
000
FXUS62 KJAX 181304
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE
JACKSONVILLE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY TODAY AS AN AREA OF WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE
PINNED CLOSE TO THE COAST BY A SYNOPTIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CEILING OR VISIBILITY ISSUES FORESEEN AT ANY OF THE
LOCAL FIELDS TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE BELOW SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. A
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL BE PINNED CLOSE TO
THE COAST.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 91 73 90 71 / 30 40 50 30
SSI 89 76 87 75 / 20 30 50 40
JAX 93 73 90 71 / 10 20 50 50
SGJ 91 74 90 73 / 10 20 40 40
GNV 92 72 91 71 / 10 10 50 30
OCF 92 73 91 72 / 10 10 40 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SANDRIK/GUILLET
000
FXUS62 KTBW 181300
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
900 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FL THIS MORNING WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD SOME TODAY BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE
FORECASTS. A GENERALLY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH WILL TEND TO EXIT ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE EAST. WEAKER FLOW IN THE SOUTH MEETING THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...OVER THE EAST AND SE CWA. CURRENT
FORECASTS HANDLE THIS NICELY AND DO NOT PLAN ANY FORECAST CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...
18/12Z-19/12Z...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CURRENTLY SE WINDS VEER TO SW...FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...AROUND 10
KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED SHIFT TO ENTIRELY TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON
AT NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS. NEXT FORECAST OUT BY 10 AM WITH LITTLE
CHANGE.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...09/RUDE
AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KKEY 181137 AAA
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
737 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS PORTRAY A WEAKENING NOCTURNAL SHOWER REGIME
WITHIN A DECELERATING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A WIND PROFILE WHICH WOULD FAVOR CLOUD LINES NORTH OF
EITHER TERMINAL...IF THEY ARE ABLE TO OVERCOME LOW AND MID LEVEL
INHIBITION. FINALLY...WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LIMIT THE AVAILABILITY
OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS...THUS RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT INCLUDED
IN THE EYW AND MTH TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
$$
AVIATION...CLR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMFL 181126
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10-12
KT EAST COAST AND SW AROUND 10 KT AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE OVER
THE INTERIOR. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS SIMILAR WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH WITH MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
DRIER AIR JUST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES COULD ENTER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND MIGHT
CONTAIN A LOW LEVEL SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRIER AIR LAYER IN THE 850-700 HPA LAYER BY THURSDAY. SO HAZY
SKIES MAYBE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
MARINE...
INTO THURSDAY THE REGIONAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 15
KNOTS WITH GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.
EXTENDED FORECAST INDICATES WINDS COULD REACH THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE OR EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
AN INCREASE IN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS BUT FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED MAINLY INTERIOR AND WESTERN REGIONS. OTHERWISE
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 78 88 77 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 89 81 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 90 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 91 75 90 74 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KTAE 180917
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
517 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2013
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.NEAR TERM [TODAY]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by ridging over Wrn
states, troughing over much of Ern states with axis over Srn
Appalachians, weak quasi-stnry flow over Srn tier states, and an
elongated ridge over Gulf of Mex with axis from Tampa Bay to Cntrl
TX Coast. Shortwaves continue to round base of trough. At the
surface, low over TN Valley with weak front swwd across Nrn AL and
into Cntrl TX. Swd, high well east of mid-Atlc with ridge SWWD
across N FL and into Nrn Gulf of Mex.
At press time, like 24hrs ago, under persistent SW flow, isold
showers were developing along coastal AL and expect this rain to
spread ewd and increase in coverage to begin the day. Otherwise, H7
trough to move across Cntrl AL/GA while lead shortwave moves across
OH/TN Valleys this aftn so most energy will remain well N of our
area. In its wake, Gulf ridge will amplify some. Ahead of shortwave,
the frontal boundary will sag swd while surface ridge builds further
into local region. All this places local area in warm sector with
RAP aftn PWATS increasing to 1.7 to 2.0 inches. This will also
result in tighter gradients and increasing WSW winds and kill any
inland penetration of east coast seabreeze.
With main energy north of our area, Per RAP13, aftn SFC Cape only
expected to max out around 2600 j/kg in Coffee County, 2100 j/kg in
Houston County AL closest to lift. Also expect 0-6KM shear only
15-20KT, 0-3 km SRH only 50-80 m/s and 700-500mb lapse rate 5-6c/km.
CAM even less impressive, i.e. sfc Cape of around 1000 j/kg,
updrafts of only 7, and CIN and integrated graupel both zero. So
thermodynamics and chance for strong to severe storms appear
noticeably less favorable than on Mon aftn. Still with approaching
front and Gulf seabreeze, will go with mainly mid-late aftn sharp
50-0% NW-SE POP gradient which juxtaposes well with local WRF. Under
warm SW winds, expect inland highs in the low 90S.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Wednesday Night]...
An upper level trough will continue to deepen through the local
region with a decent lobe of energy passing overhead on Wednesday.
At the surface, a cold front will drop down from the north and lay
out west to east across north Florida Wednesday. A weak wave may
develop on the boundary in the panhandle Wednesday morning and
translate to the east. All this coming together combined with deep
layer moisture and daytime heating should bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to the Tri-state region
Wednesday. Will show slight/chance PoPs for the overnight periods.
Temperatures will remain near the seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Some days will likely have slightly
higher PoPs than others depending on the timing of individual weak
shortwaves, which is hard to forecast in the long term. No major
synoptic scale systems are expected to impact the area during the
period. Temperatures are expected to remain near their seasonal
averages.
&&
.AVIATION...[Through 12z Wednesday]
MVFR Cigs at KDHN, KVLD, and KABY til 14Z. After this period VFR
conditions will generally prevail. However, after 18Z convection
possible. DHN and ABY will have the greatest chance for TSRA and
will go with VCSH 18Z-00Z and PROB30 19z-23z there. Confidence in
POPs too low elsewhere for inclusion. MVFR vsbys/cigs likely in any
stronger storms. VFR conditions return after sundown. After 08z,
expect MVFR CIGS/VSBYS to develop at VLD and TLH and likely at DHN.
Brief IFR CIGS possible at VLD near sundown.
&&
.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this week, yielding mainly light southwest
to west flow and low seas. A cold front will approach from the north
and stall over or just north of the waters Wednesday or Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will
remain above locally critical levels. The combination of deep
mixing and somewhat stronger winds aloft will help dispersion values
climb above 75 this afternoon areawide and for portions of North FL
on Wed afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 92 74 90 71 90 / 20 20 60 40 50
Panama City 89 75 88 76 90 / 20 20 60 40 40
Dothan 91 73 91 72 91 / 50 40 50 30 40
Albany 91 73 92 71 91 / 50 40 50 30 40
Valdosta 92 72 93 70 90 / 30 30 50 40 50
Cross City 91 73 89 72 91 / 10 10 50 30 50
Apalachicola 88 75 88 75 86 / 10 10 50 40 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
HORT TERM...Barry
NEAR TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Block
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...DVD
MARINE...Barry/Fournier
000
FXUS62 KMFL 180827
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
427 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS SIMILAR WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH WITH MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
DRIER AIR JUST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES COULD ENTER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND MIGHT
CONTAIN A LOW LEVEL SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRIER AIR LAYER IN THE 850-700 HPA LAYER BY THURSDAY. SO HAZY
SKIES MAYBE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
INTO THURSDAY THE REGIONAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 15
KNOTS WITH GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.
EXTENDED FORECAST INDICATES WINDS COULD REACH THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE OR EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
AN INCREASE IN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS BUT FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED MAINLY INTERIOR AND WESTERN REGIONS. OTHERWISE
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 78 88 77 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 89 81 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 90 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 91 75 90 74 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KKEY 180826
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
426 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
RADAR DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE OFFSHORE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS NEAR THE CAY SAL BANK.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MADE IT TO
WITHIN 20 MILES SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT DISSIPATED QUICKLY BEFORE REACHING LAND. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR ACROSS THE KEYS AT PRESENT... WITH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN HOVERING IN THE LOWER 80S...AND WINDS ON LAND FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH.
REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH A LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO HAS MOVED INLAND OVER BELIZE. ALOFT...A NARROW
EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...
SOUTH OF A MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THE MONDAY EVENING KEY WEST SOUNDING REFLECTED AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DURING THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS...WITH PWAT
CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR JUNE AT 1.69 INCHES.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND BEYOND. THIS
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN AND BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD TEMPORARILY ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE HOWEVER...WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME PERSISTING. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY DOES
NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
KEYS...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TENDING TO OCCUR MOSTLY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL DATA
INDICATE THAT A SWATH OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
MOVING ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY...AND THE EXISTING CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MORNING HOURS APPEAR ON TRACK. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BECOME
ISOLATED THIS AFTERNOON... AS TYPICALLY OCCURS IN THIS PATTERN...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DECELERATING LOW LEVEL FLOW DEPICTED BY MODEL
GUIDANCE. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH PWATS DROPPING BELOW THE
25TH PERCENTILE FOR JUNE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL MAINTAIN
20 PERCENT POPS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THEN CUT POPS BACK TO JUST
10 PERCENT AND REMOVE ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID JUNE...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90...AND LOWS RANGING FROM 80 TO 83
DEGREES OUTSIDE OF SPARSE RAINFALL.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH THE KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA LYING WITHIN MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. A DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
KEYS INITIALLY...BUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAY BRING ANOTHER AREA OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD THEN SPREAD WESTWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC
INTO OUR REGION ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEE NO REASON TO MAKE
ANY CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST...WITH LOW CHANCE (30 PERCENT)
POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OTHERWISE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO TEMPS.
&&
.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER ACROSS THE KEYS WATERS THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. EXPECT A
SIMILAR GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME TO CONTINUE
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WINDS THEN INCREASING SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WIND SPEEDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME ESPECIALLY ON THE STRAITS...BUT DO NOT
ANTICIPATE THAT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED. EASTERLY
BREEZES MAY INCREASE ANOTHER NOTCH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE STRAITS.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH THE 19TH AT 06Z...COLUMNAR MOISTURE HAS INCREASED IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG RESIDUAL
CUBAN BOUNDARIES SOUTH AND WEST OF THE EYW TERMINAL. HAVE INCLUDED A
VCSH PERIOD THIS MORNING AT EYW TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW BOUNDARIES
ADVECTING NORTHWARD. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...DECELERATING
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
JUNE 18TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1998...A WATERSPOUT MOVED ASHORE AS AN F0 TORNADO NEAR THE SHOPPING
CENTERS ON NORTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD AND CROSSED THE ISLAND THROUGH
RESIDENTIAL NEIGHBORHOODS...CAUSING $15,000 IN DAMAGE BEFORE EXITING
ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE. ALSO ON JUNE 18TH...IN 1972...TROPICAL STORM
AGNES PASSED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE OUTER
RAINBANDS OF AGNES SPAWNED AT LEAST THREE...TO AS MANY AS
SIX...TORNADOES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING A F2 TORNADO IN BIG
COPPITT KEY...A F2 TORNADO IN KEY WEST...AND A F1 TORNADO IN CONCH
KEY. TOTAL DAMAGE WAS ESTIMATED AT JUST OVER $500,000...1972 USD.
ABOUT 40 PEOPLE WERE INJURED IN BIG COPPITT KEY...MAKING THE BIG
COPPITT TORNADO THE WORST IN THE HISTORY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS IN
TERMS OF TOTAL NUMBER OF INJURIES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 89 82 89 82 / 30 20 20 10
MARATHON 91 83 91 83 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........JACOBSON
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 180817
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING SOME WEAKENING SHOWERS ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING. MAIN SHORT
TERM CONCERN FOR TODAY REVOLVES AROUND POPS ONCE AGAIN.
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE SEA
BREEZE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW WILL BE STRONGEST...AND A SLOWER INLAND PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTH.
EXPECT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS LAND AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT
PUSHES INLAND. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO INCREASE INLAND FROM THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
CONTINUES IT/S INLAND PROPAGATION. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT ANOTHER GOOD EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
COLLISION ACROSS POLK/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...WHERE A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD END BY 06Z ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS REDEVELOP PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF LEVY AND CITRUS
COUNTIES. RAIN FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
90S TODAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOWER 70S ACROSS THE TYPICALLY COOLER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...
A WEAK U/L TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WHILE AN U/L RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH ONSHORE WEST/SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL PERSIST EACH DAY WITH WEAK SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY EACH DAY. HOWEVER WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY
DELAY CONVECTION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
A BIT STRONGER WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY INLAND WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH
FLORIDA WEAKENS ON THURSDAY...ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN WHICH
WILL KEEP THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY PUSHING WEST BACK
TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS EACH DAY.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY LIFT WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FRIDAY...WITH REMNANT WEAK U/L TROUGH
TRAPPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. PINCHED OFF FROM THE U/L FLOW.
AN U/L RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY...AND BRIDGE OVER THE WEAK TROUGH AND
EXTEND OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TRANSITION DAY FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE AXIS GRADUALLY EXTENDING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WITH
WESTERLY ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENING...AND EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
INCREASING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR AND PUSH WEST TOWARDS THE COAST. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS DEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE
PINNED NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE INCREASING EAST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...WITH HIGHEST POPS NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH WEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT AND
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM WATERS AID LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY ALONG LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. SIMILAR PATTERN ON
MONDAY BUT SOME DRY AIR ALOFT MAY PUSH IN FROM THE EAST AS THE U/L
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS AT NIGHT AND NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THE DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...THE VAST
MAJORITY OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD REMAIN INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS...SO
HAVEN/T MENTIONED VCSH/VCTS AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS AT KLAL WHERE VCTS WILL BE INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z AND
23Z.
&&
.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH WINDS
15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS EACH DAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 92 77 91 77 / 20 10 30 20
FMY 93 77 92 75 / 20 20 40 20
GIF 94 75 92 75 / 40 20 50 20
SRQ 91 76 89 75 / 20 10 20 20
BKV 93 72 92 71 / 20 10 30 20
SPG 91 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JELSEMA
LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
000
FXUS62 KJAX 180756
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
...DRY AND HOT TODAY...
...SCATTERED STORMS FOR MID WEEK ON WITH FRONT IN THE AREA...
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TODAY...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY A BIT ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...WITH SW FLOW AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH EAST COAST SEABREEZE ABSENT AND NO UPPER
DYNAMICS...WILL GO WITH NEAR NIL POPS MUCH OF THE DAY.
POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR INLAND SE GA BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SWING
SE TOWARDS THE AREA. WARM SW WINDS RESULTS IN HIGH TEMPS
REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...
INCLUDING THE COAST. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH 100 IN
A FEW SPOTS.
TONIGHT...BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO GET ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO SE GA
BY LATE AT NIGHT. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS SE GA
BUT NEAR NIL POPS ELSEWHERE AS THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
STILL LINGERS IN THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
DIG ACROSS THE SE U.S. WHICH WILL ENABLE THE COLD FRONT TO
MOVE INTO NE FL...TO NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS NE FL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DUE TO LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW FLOW ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARRANTS SCATTERED POPS...BUT POPS WILL
BE HIGHEST (50%) NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE
RISK OF SEVERE WX...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS DUE TO STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT (-9C). INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP TEMPS IN CHECK...BUT
SHOULD MAKE IT TO AT LEAST 90 ACROSS NE FL AND EVEN LOWER 90S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE SUN THERE. WILL KEEP
SCATTERED POPS GOING ACROSS NE FL AND COASTAL SE GA...NEAR
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THU-FRI...OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND TSTM COVERAGE
AROUND 50% IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HAVE KEPT JUST BELOW
LIKELY COVERAGE FOR NOW. SEASONABLE HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED.
SAT-SUN-MON...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH DAILY RAIN CHANCES
NEAR CLIMO VALUES IN THE 30-40% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDS AT
LOCAL TAF SITES WITH RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN 20% AND HAVE KEPT ANY
MENTION LEFT OUT FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS VEER TO THE SW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE AREA
AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SW WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH APPROACH
OF FRONT AND MAY INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE.
COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE WATERS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH HEADLINES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY ON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 91 73 90 71 / 30 40 50 30
SSI 89 76 87 75 / 20 30 50 40
JAX 93 73 90 71 / 10 20 50 50
SGJ 91 74 90 73 / 10 20 40 40
GNV 92 72 91 71 / 10 10 50 30
OCF 92 73 91 72 / 10 10 40 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PP/JH
000
FXUS62 KMLB 180752
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...SIMILAR TO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF LAST EVENING`S
CONVECTION ARE WORKING THEIR WAY OFF THE BREVARD COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. UNLIKE SUNDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT OR SURFACE INSTABILITY FOR ACTIVITY TO WORK WITH. THE
REMAINING DEBRIS RAIN ACROSS BREVARD...INDIAN RIVER...AND OSCEOLA
COUNTIES WILL FALL APART OR PUSH OFFSHORE WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.
GIVEN THE HIGH HUMIDITIES AND RECENT RAINFALL...THERE COULD BE SOME
HAZE/MIST AROUND SUNRISE.
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...ONLY VERY SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN INTO TUESDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FL PENINSULA KEEPING THE STATE IN A DEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
MODELS POPS CAME IN SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER CLIMO FOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE GFS BARELY MENTIONING RAIN AT 10-15 PERCENT. THEY ALL SEEM
TO BE KEYING RATHER HEAVILY ON THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE GULF MOVING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY AND INHIBITING COVERAGE. THIS WOULD BE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
HOWEVER THINK THAT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MID JUNE SOLAR
HEATING...AND THE FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW FOCUSING SEABREEZE
CONVERGENCE E OF THE FL TURNPIKE WILL OVERCOME THIS DRIER AIR AND
HAVE KEPT POPS NEAR CLIMO AT 30-40 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-4 AND INLAND
FROM THE TREASURE COAST. SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL BE A
LITTLE MORE ROBUST TODAY AS A TROUGH SWING THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC...PROVIDING FOR A QUICKER MOVEMENT TO THE BREVARD AND
INDIAN RIVER COASTS IN THE LATE EVENING.
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH A VERY LATE...IF ANY SEABREEZE NORTH OF
MELBOURNE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S...OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.
WED...SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS S FL WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPPING SOUTH FROM SRN GA TWD THE FL-GA BORDER. E CENTRAL FL WILL
REMAIN IN LOW LVL SW FLOW AHEAD NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. GFS/NAM IN
AGREEMENT THAT OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST WILL BE MOST
FAVORED FOR PRECIP AND HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PCT THERE. KEPT MID
SCATTERED RANGE POPS FURTHER NORTH WHERE LATE DAY MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH AND INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HIGHS AROUND 90 COASTAL TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR.
THU...ECMWF MODEL AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS INDICATES
PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REACH NRN SECTIONS WITH LOW LVL SOUTHERLY
FLOW ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION MOST FAVORED ACROSS NRN
INTERIOR SECTIONS. WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOCUS SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR...LEADING TO HIGHER COVERAGE
FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY NORTHWARD. HIGHS UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AT THE
COAST AND LOWER 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.
FRI-MON...LOW LVL FLOW WILL BECOME SE ON FRIDAY WITH ECMWF
INDICATING DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS CENTRAL FL. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP 30 POPS SE CSTL SECTIONS AND 40 PCT FOR INTERIOR AND NORTH. THE
GFS STILL HINTS AT THE NRN EXTENSION OF AN EASTERLY WAVE AFFECTING
SRN FL SAT-SAT NIGHT BEFORE MOVING INTO THE GULF BY SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP POPS HIGHER SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR N CSTL SECTIONS WHERE SE FLOW
SHOULD PUSH E COAST BRZ INLAND. FOR SUNDAY...THINK SRN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS WILL BE FAVORED BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MOVING WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. GFS SHOWS
STRONGER ESE LOW LVL MONDAY WITH DEEP LAYER DRYING COMPLIMENTS OF
THE MID LVL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE SE ATLC COAST. HAVE LOWERED POPS
TO 20-30 PCT NEXT MONDAY AND FOR THE PRELIM NEW DAY7 WILL ALSO TREND
LOWER THAN GUID (SLGT CHC/20 PCT)WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW LVL ESE
FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 10Z...LINGERING -SHRA MOVING OFFSHORE BETWEEN
KTIX AND KVRB WITH OCCASIONAL CIGS FL020-030. 10Z-16Z...LCL MVFR
MIST AROUND DAYBREAK IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECENTLY RECEIVED
RAINFALL. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR UNDER SW FLOW WITH CU DEVELOPING
FL030-050. 16Z-20Z...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE FROM KTIX SOUTH WITH VERY LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT OF SEA
BREEZE. AFTER 20Z...SCT TSRA ON WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH KLEE AND ORLANDO METRO AIRPORTS COLLIDING WITH EAST
COAST SEABREEZE AROUND KDAB-KOBE.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED SOUTH
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE KEEPING A PREVAILING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
10-15KTS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BACK MORE
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. STORM SYSTEM PASSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE CAPE BRINGING WINDS UP TO A SOLID 15-18KTS OVERNIGHT.
WAVE WATCH SEEMS A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...SO
WILL CAP SEAS AT SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE. SCT
SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE CONTINUES WITH STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.
S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME SE OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS MAINLY 3
FT NEAR SHORE AND UP TO AROUND 4 FT OFFSHORE. STORMS MAY AFFECT THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO THU. SE FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND SHOULD FAVOR INLAND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.CLIMATE...MELBOURNE TIED ANOTHER WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR
MONDAY JUNE 17TH AT 78 DEGREES.
SANFORD AIRPORT RECORDED 2.96 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE CALENDAR
DAY OF MONDAY JUNE 17TH. MOST OF THE RAIN FELL BETWEEN 2AM AND 5AM
AND AGAIN LAST EVENING BETWEEN 9 PM AND 11 PM. ONLY .14 INCHES FELL
DURING THE `DAYTIME` HOURS BETWEEN 8 AM AND 8 PM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 93 73 91 74 / 30 30 40 30
MCO 93 74 93 73 / 40 20 40 20
MLB 91 75 90 75 / 30 30 40 30
VRB 90 75 89 75 / 20 30 50 30
LEE 94 75 93 75 / 30 20 40 20
SFB 94 75 94 75 / 40 30 40 20
ORL 93 75 94 76 / 40 20 40 20
FPR 89 74 89 74 / 20 20 50 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
000
FXUS62 KTAE 180751
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 AM EDT Tue Jun 197 2013
.NEAR TERM [TODAY]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by ridging over Wrn
states, troughing over much of Ern states with axis over Srn
Appalachians, weak quasi-stnry flow over Srn tier states, and an
elongated ridge over Gulf of Mex. Shortwaves continue to round base
of trough. At the surface, low over TN Valley with weak front swwd
across Nrn AL and into Cntrl TX. Swd, high well east of mid-Atlc
with ridge SWWD across N FL and into Nrn Gulf of Mex. All this
places local area in warm sector with area PWATS generally 1.5 to
1.75 inches.
Lead shortwave will move across mid-south by end of day although
most energy will remain well NW of our area. Ahead of shortwave, the
frontal boundary will sag swd while ridge builds further into local
region. This will result in tighter gradients and increasing WSW
winds. Per RAP13, aftn SFC Cape only expected to max out around 2600
j/kg in Coffee County, 2100 j/kg in Houston County AL closest to
lift. Also expect 0-6KM shear only 15-20KT, 0-3 km SRH only 50-80
m/s and 700-500mb lapse rate 5-6c/km. CAM even less impressive, i.e.
sfc Cape of around 1000 j/kg, updrafts of only 7, and CIN and
integrated graupel both zero. So thermodynamics and chance for
strong to severe storms appear less favorable than on Mon aftn. Will
go with 50-0% NW-SE POP gradient. Expect inland highs in the low
90S.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Night Wednesday Night]...
An upper level trough will continue to deepen through the local
region with a decent lobe of energy passing overhead on Wednesday.
At the surface, a cold front will drop down from the north and lay
out west to east across north Florida Wednesday. A weak wave may
develop on the boundary in the panhandle Wednesday morning and
translate to the east. All this coming together combined with deep
layer moisture and daytime heating should bring scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to the Tri-state region
Wednesday. Will show slight/chance PoPs for the overnight periods.
Temperatures will remain near the seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Some days will likely have slightly
higher PoPs than others depending on the timing of individual weak
shortwaves, which is hard to forecast in the long term. No major
synoptic scale systems are expected to impact the area during the
period. Temperatures are expected to remain near their seasonal
averages.
&&
.AVIATION...[Through 06z Wednesday]
VFR conditions will yield to MVFR Cigs at KDHN, KVLD, and KABY
from 09Z to 14Z. After this period VFR conditions will generally
prevail. However, after 18Z convection possible. DHN and ABY will
have the greatest chance for TSRA and will go with VCSH 18Z-00Z and
PROB30 19z-23z there. Confidence in POPs too low elsewhere for
inclusion. MVFR vsbys/cigs likely in any stronger storms. VFR
conditions return after sundown.
&&
.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this week, yielding mainly light southwest
to west flow and low seas. A cold front will approach from the north
and stall over or just north of the waters Wednesday or Thursday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will
remain above locally critical levels. The combination of deep
mixing and somewhat stronger winds aloft will help dispersion values
climb above 75 this afternoon areawide and for portions of North FL
on Wed afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 92 74 90 71 90 / 20 20 60 40 50
Panama City 89 75 88 76 90 / 20 20 60 40 40
Dothan 91 73 91 72 91 / 50 40 50 30 40
Albany 91 73 92 71 91 / 50 40 50 30 40
Valdosta 92 72 93 70 90 / 30 30 50 40 50
Cross City 91 73 89 72 91 / 10 10 50 30 50
Apalachicola 88 75 88 75 86 / 10 10 50 40 40
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Barry
NEAR TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...Block
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...DVD
MARINE...Barry/Fournier
000
FXUS62 KMFL 180611
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
211 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10-12 KT
EAST COAST AND SW AROUND 10 KT AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE VCSH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE
INTERIOR. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER..THERE WAS STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW STORMS OVER GLADES COUNTY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER METRO COLLIER COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING
HOURS.
THE LATEST PWAT VALUE FROM THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING WAS AROUND 1.2
INCHES. THIS IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT OF
1.75 INCHES. SO THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. THERE COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT..BUT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE AT BEST 10 PERCENT.
SO WILL KEEP THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND 20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FOR A 30 PERCENT EVENING POPS FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE 2...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR ATLANTIC TERMINALS...ESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUE THAN PREV FEW DAYS SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
FCST. FOR KAFP...LAND BREEZE SETS UP OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING ESE
WINDS...BUT THESE SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW BY AROUND NOON ON TUE AS
GULF BREEZE INTRUDES. VCSH ALSO IN PLACE TUE AFTN FOR NAPLES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHWRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR REST OF THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS AND TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AREAS...AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED IN
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING THAT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO MAKE THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR REST
OF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THESE AREAS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INDICATES
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE REMAINING AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 102-106 DEGREE
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT FORT LAUDERDALE WILL ONLY REACH 81 DEGREES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE LOW...WHICH WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1987 IF IT VERIFIES.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" MARK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY FAVOR THE EAST COAST AREAS
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW. THE
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2" ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 88 78 88 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 89 80 88 / 20 20 10 20
MIAMI 78 89 78 90 / 20 20 10 20
NAPLES 75 90 74 92 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KKEY 180253
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS REMAIN ISOLATED ON THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EXTREMES OF THE
SERVICE AREA...WITH A FEW WEAKER ECHOES ABOUT 30 NM SOUTH OF THE
MARQUESAS KEYS. THERE ARE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE
STRONGER SOUTHERN CELLS. WINDS ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE FROM THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AND TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 80 AND 85 DEGREES ALONG THE
KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.
THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN THE
LOWEST LAYERS...THROUGH A DEPTH WHERE WINDS STILL REMAIN MODERATE. A
VEERED BUT SOMEWHAT LIGHTER PROFILE EXTENDS ABOVE THAT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS INCREASED TO NEARLY 1.7 INCHES...AND WE ARE MORE UNSTABLE
THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST...GENERALLY UPSTREAM FROM THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. WE SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST A LITTLE HIGHER PROBABILITY/COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL LET THE AFTERNOON
ZONE ISSUANCE RIDE FOR NOW...BASED ON THE TRANSITIONAL WORDING FOR A
GREATER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
NO CHANGES ON THE LATE EVENING MARINE UPDATE. A GENTLE TO MODERATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE
EAST SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......L. KASPER
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTAE 180150
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Thunderstorms continue to cross through the northern forecast area
staying primarily in Alabama and Georgia. PoPs were bumped up in the
current period to match the pattern of precipitation, but from 06Z to
12Z rain chances will remain just at or below 20 percent. High
relative humidities will accompany minimum temperatures in the
lower 70s tonight. Besides adjusting the PoPs, the previous
forecast remains on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Weak upper level troughing across the southeast states will
continue through the short term period. A weak frontal boundary
will sag southward into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday and
provide a focus for scattered afternoon convection, mainly across
the northern areas on Tuesday and then pushing farther south on
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near the seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Some days will likely have slightly
higher PoPs than others depending on the timing of individual weak
shortwaves, which is hard to forecast in the long term. No major
synoptic scale systems are expected to impact the area during the
period. Temperatures are expected to remain near their seasonal
averages.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 00z Wednesday] With storms dissipating as the evening
continues, VFR conditions will be seen overnight for all
terminals. KDHN, KVLD, and KABY are expected to see MVFR Cigs from
09Z to 14Z. After this period VFR conditions will once again
prevail. After 18Z tomorrow, the northernmost terminals will have
the greatest chance for TSRA to develop, but as of right now only
VCSH are included in the TAFs.
&&
.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this week, yielding mainly light southwest
to west flow and low seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will
remain above locally critical levels. The combination of deep
mixing and somewhat stronger winds aloft will help dispersion
values climb above 75 Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 93 74 91 71 / 10 20 20 50 30
Panama City 78 89 75 88 76 / 20 20 30 50 30
Dothan 73 92 72 92 72 / 50 50 50 50 30
Albany 73 92 72 93 71 / 40 50 40 50 30
Valdosta 71 92 73 90 70 / 30 30 30 50 30
Cross City 72 91 74 90 72 / 10 10 10 40 30
Apalachicola 77 88 75 87 74 / 10 10 20 50 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Heller/Gould
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Heller/Moore
MARINE...Fournier/DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier/DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD
000
FXUS62 KMLB 180137
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
BOUNDARY COLLISION INDUCED CONVECTION TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD
COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS DECREASING
AND LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...STORMS PRODUCING IFR/MVFR CONDS NEAR THE I-4 CORRIDOR
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 04-05Z. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION AGAIN TOMORROW AFT.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) ATLC RIDGE AXIS PARKED JUST N OF
THE NRN BAHAMAS AND EXTENDING JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL
GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT AREAWIDE...UP
TO 4FT IN THE GULF STREAM. TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF PORT
CANAVERAL THRU LATE EVNG.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/KELLY
000
FXUS62 KMFL 180125 AAC
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
925 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER..THERE WAS STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW STORMS OVER GLADES COUNTY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER METRO COLLIER COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING
HOURS.
THE LATEST PWAT VALUE FROM THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING WAS AROUND 1.2
INCHES. THIS IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT OF
1.75 INCHES. SO THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. THERE COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT..BUT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE AT BEST 10 PERCENT.
SO WILL KEEP THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND 20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FOR A 30 PERCENT EVENING POPS FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.UPDATE 2...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR ATLANTIC TERMINALS...ESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUE THAN PREV FEW DAYS SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
FCST. FOR KAFP...LAND BREEZE SETS UP OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING ESE
WINDS...BUT THESE SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW BY AROUND NOON ON TUE AS
GULF BREEZE INTRUDES. VCSH ALSO IN PLACE TUE AFTN FOR NAPLES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHWRS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR REST OF THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS AND TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AREAS...AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED IN
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING THAT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO MAKE THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR REST
OF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THESE AREAS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INDICATES
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE REMAINING AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 102-106 DEGREE
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT FORT LAUDERDALE WILL ONLY REACH 81 DEGREES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE LOW...WHICH WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1987 IF IT VERIFIES.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" MARK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY FAVOR THE EAST COAST AREAS
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW. THE
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2" ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 88 77 88 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 90 80 89 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 80 90 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 76 91 75 90 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KTBW 180118
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
918 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA BROUGHT AN
ACCELERATED SEA BREEZE IN NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...WHERE THE BEST
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED INLAND FROM NEAR
ZEPHYRHILLS...NORTHEAST TO DAYTONA BEACH AND IS SLOWLY
WITHDRAWING OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN
INLAND SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. THE POP GRIDS FOR TONIGHT WERE REDRAWN
SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE CURRENT POSITION OF SHOWERS ON RADAR.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND TONIGHT OVER ALREADY WET
GROUND...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.
OTHER THAN POPS TONIGHT...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND THIS EVENING AND EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS AND COULD EFFECT LAL...PGD...FMY AND RSW.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS ARE CAUSING SEAS OF A FOOT OR LESS. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 93 77 92 / 10 20 10 20
FMY 76 93 76 93 / 20 40 20 40
GIF 74 94 74 93 / 40 40 20 40
SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 20 20 10 20
BKV 70 93 72 92 / 10 20 10 20
SPG 79 91 80 90 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE...FLEMING
AVIATION...CLOSE
000
FXUS62 KJAX 180057
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
855 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...EARLIER SEABREEZE TRIGGERED CONVECTION HAS DIED OUT
NEAR THE EAST COAST. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE ACROSS SE GA
TONIGHT SO WILL KEEP A SMALL POP THERE. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND
DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING STRONG
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. MOST SHOWER AND TSTM MISSED
TAF SITES TODAY. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SSI TERMINAL COULD SEE A
SHOWER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. OTHERWISE LATE TONIGHT
BRIEF MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT VQQ FROM 08Z-11Z. ON TUE...RAIN CHANCES
ARE BELOW NORMAL...AT OR BELOW 30%...SO LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP AT THIS TIME. WINDS ON TUE PREVAILING FROM THE SW AROUND 10
KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...SSE WINDS NEAR 15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
TO SW OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 92 72 90 / 20 40 40 50
SSI 74 88 75 89 / 50 30 30 50
JAX 72 94 74 91 / 20 30 30 50
SGJ 72 91 75 89 / 30 30 30 50
GNV 69 91 71 90 / 10 30 20 40
OCF 70 91 72 90 / 10 20 10 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ZIBURA/SHASHY/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KMFL 172351
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR ATLANTIC TERMINALS...ESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUE THAN PREV FEW DAYS SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
FCST. FOR KAFP...LAND BREEZE SETS UP OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING ESE
WINDS...BUT THESE SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW BY AROUND NOON ON TUE AS
GULF BREEZE INTRUDES. VCSH ALSO IN PLACE TUE AFTN FOR NAPLES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHWRS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR REST OF THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS AND TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AREAS...AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED IN
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING THAT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO MAKE THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR REST
OF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THESE AREAS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INDICATES
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE REMAINING AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 102-106 DEGREE
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT FORT LAUDERDALE WILL ONLY REACH 81 DEGREES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE LOW...WHICH WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1987 IF IT VERIFIES.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" MARK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY FAVOR THE EAST COAST AREAS
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW. THE
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2" ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 77 88 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 90 80 89 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 79 90 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 91 75 90 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 172215 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
615 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR REST OF THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS AND TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AREAS...AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED IN
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING THAT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO MAKE THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR REST
OF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THESE AREAS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INDICATES
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE REMAINING AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 102-106 DEGREE
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT FORT LAUDERDALE WILL ONLY REACH 81 DEGREES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE LOW...WHICH WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1987 IF IT VERIFIES.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" MARK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY FAVOR THE EAST COAST AREAS
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW. THE
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2" ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
AVIATION...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 11 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WAS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR KAPF...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
FOR KAPF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. SO SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. FOR NOW...ADDED VCSH AFTER 14Z...AND VCTS MAY BE
NEEDED AROUND 18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 77 88 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 90 80 89 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 79 90 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 91 75 90 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMLB 172011
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
411 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...
EARLY START TO DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS BURNED UP MUCH OF THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY ALONG AND N OF U.S. HWY 192. CONVECTION STRUGGLING
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BNDRY DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MID
LVL VORT MAX APPROACHING THE FL BIG BEND. EXISTING CONVECTION HAS
GENERATED DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL INTERACT WITH
EXISTING STORMS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN TO WORK OVER MOST THE
REMAINING UNMODIFIED AIRMASS. BY SUNSET...MOST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD
BE CONSUMED. WILL KEEP ISOLD TSRAS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THRU LATE
EVNG...SCT COASTAL COUNTIES FROM COASTAL VOLUSIA TO INDIAN RIVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR "BLOW BACK". WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE L/M70S.
TUE-WED...
BROAD TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS PINNED OVER THE S HALF OF FL PENINSULA THRU MID WEEK. H100-H85
MEAN RH AOA 70PCT OVER THE SE GOMEX/NW CARIB WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
FUEL FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. A SLUG OF DRY AIR OVER THE FL
STRAITS IN THE H85-H50 LYR MAY INHIBIT COVERAGE SOMEWHAT...AND MID
VORTICITY REMAINS LACKING. MODELS HINT AT SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AS WELL AS SWRLY FLOW INCRSG TO 10-15KTS THRU THE H85-H50 STEERING
LYR...A PATTERN THAT WOULD FOCUS SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE E OF THE FL
TURNPIKE AND SETTING UP THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR BLOW BACK
CONVECTION THRU SUNSET.
MAV MOS POPS CAME IN RATHER LOW THRU MIDWEEK...AOB 20PCT TUE AND AOB
30PCT WED. WHILE THE LACK OF VORTICITY AND DRY MID LVL AIR WILL
SERVE TO LIMIT TOTAL STORM ACTIVITY...THE INCREASING MID LVL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SEABREEZE MERGERS BY LATE AFTN WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
PUSHING STORM ACTIVITY ACRS THE PENINSULA. MOS ALSO KEEPS SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M70S AREAWIDE THRU MOST OF THE PD...INDICATING A
MOIST AND BUOYANT SFC/LOW LVL AIRMASS. PRECIP DISTRIBUTION LOOKS
REASONABLE...BUT WILL PUSH NUMBERS UP TO 30-40PCT AREAWIDE.
TEMPS A FEW DEGS ABV AVG DUE TO THE SW FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...
MINS IN THE L/M70S.
EXTENDED...(PREV DISC)
THU-FRI..S/SW LOW LVL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING TWD THE FL/GA
BORDER AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BY
FRIDAY THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL
RETROGRADING A BIT AS AN INVERTED TROUGH AS LOW LVL ESE FLOW SHOULD
PUSH HIGHER AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR AND NRN
SECTIONS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
SAT-SUN...00Z GFS PROGS AN EASTERLY WAVE WITH SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND A SURGE IN THE LOW LVL SOUTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ONSHORE MOVING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS SOME DRYING IS PROGD WITH DEEP LYR RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE FROM
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 17/16Z...VFR ALL SITES...CIGS AOA FL100 N OF KISM-KMLB. BTWN
17/16Z-17/18Z...SFC WNDSHFT FM S TO E/SE KDAB-KSUA ASSOCD WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS
DVLPG ALL SITES. BTWN 17/18Z-17/22Z...SFC WNDSHFT FROM S/SW TO SE AT
KSFB/KMCO/KISM AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND...SEABREEZE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH KLEE...INCRSG MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS COVERAGE FM
ISOLD TO SCT ALL SITES...CONVECTION CONTG THRU 18/03Z DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E. AFT 18/03Z...VFR ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS PARKED JUST N OF THE NRN BAHAMAS AND
EXTENDING JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE
SRLY BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT AREAWIDE...UP TO 4FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF PORT CANAVERAL THRU LATE EVNG.
TUE-THU...TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD THRU MIDWEEK WILL
PREVENT THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER N THAN LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW BREEZE WILL RESULT WITH SEAS
2-3FT NEARSHORE...3-4FT OFFSHORE. SCT SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE THRU MID
WEEK WITH STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
FRI-SAT...ATLC RIDGE WILL DRIFT N INTO CENTRAL FL LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE ERN SEABOARD TROF WEAKENS AND IS BRIDGED BY ITS POST FRONTAL
CONTINENTAL RIDGE. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BACKING TO THE S/SE
10-15KTS. SEAS TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE. STORM COVERAGE
TO DIMINISH AS STEERING FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS ONSHORE WITH
THE PASSING RIDGE AXIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 92 73 90 / 30 30 30 30
MCO 73 93 73 93 / 30 40 20 40
MLB 75 90 75 90 / 30 40 30 40
VRB 74 89 75 89 / 30 40 30 40
LEE 74 94 75 93 / 20 30 20 30
SFB 74 94 75 94 / 30 40 20 30
ORL 75 94 76 93 / 30 40 20 40
FPR 73 89 74 88 / 30 30 20 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST....BRAGAW
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
000
FXUS62 KTBW 172009
AFDTBW
FXUS62 KTBW 171305
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON OVER-TOP AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
ALIGNED ACROSS THE STATE JUST TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SYNOPTIC FLOW AROUND THIS RIDGE IS HELPING TO ACCELERATE THE
SEA-BREEZE INLAND ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH A SLOWER INLAND
EXPANSION FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THE FLOW IS LIGHTER OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
OPPOSED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED SO FAR WITH
WIDELY SCT CELLS TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE I-75
CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
STILL ANTICIPATE AN ACTIVE EVENING OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE WAS ACTUALLY HINTING AT A LATE START...AND
PLENTY OF DAYLIGHT/HEATING LEFT TO GO. EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE COLLISION WILL BE MAXIMIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM
POLK COUNTY TO HIGHLANDS AND THEN SOUTHWEST TOWARD FT. MYERS. WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS FOR
THESE AREA. FURTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-4...THE ONLY
CHANCES FOR STORMS NOW LOOKS TO BE WELL INLAND WITH THE PROPAGATING
SEA-BREEZE...AND EVENTUALLY THIS CONVERGENT ZONE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF
OUR COUNTIES INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND END THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE NATION INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK AND HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THIS FRONT WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA AND IS PROGGED BY GLOBAL
GUIDANCE TO STALL AND WASH OUT NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL HOLD STRONG ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND
KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MID/LATE JUNE. FOR
TUESDAY...SOME INDICATIONS OF A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC COLUMN
FOR DEEP CONVECTION ALONG WITH A QUICKLY MOVING SEA-BREEZE WILL KEEP
POPS LOWER TO THE NORTH OF I-4. BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS
SUPPRESSED DOWN TOWARD OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH.
THIS POSITION SHOULD SET UP A LARGER PORTION OF AREA TO SEE A
QUICKLY MOVING SEA-BREEZE...AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES AT THE COAST.
HAVE NOTICED A WARMING OF THE SHELF WATERS IN THE PAST WEEK OR 2 AND
RESULTING SPIKE IN COASTAL DEWPOINTS LATELY. FOR THIS REASON...HEAT
INDICES HAVE BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE ONCE AGAIN. FORECAST THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL SHOW MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
WEAK U/L TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST
GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH THE WESTERLIES LIFTING WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AS AN U/L
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS WILL PINCH
OFF THE WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST GULF
SEPARATING IT FROM THE WESTERLIES...WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING
INTO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHEAST
GULF OFF THE GEORGIA/S CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...WITH BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...WITH MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
INTERIOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY WITH ACTIVITY PRIMARILY OVER THE INTERIOR POSSIBLY
PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN THE DAY. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST NUMEROUS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
COLLIDES WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
EACH DAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS
THURSDAY...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
AS WINDS SHIFT TO SW AND WEST ISOLD TSRA NOW FORMING WILL MOVE
INLAND AS THEY BECOME SCT. STILL LOOKING FOR VCNTY TSRA/CB ONLY
INLAND AND SOUTH DURING THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN TERMINALS COULD SEE
ISOLD SHRA IN A 01Z-06Z WINDOW. WINDS BECOME VARIABLE OR LIGHT SE
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME STEADIER ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP PREVENT
ANY CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY. MAXIMUM DAILY HEAT INDICES
WILL BE ELEVATED WITH TYPICAL VALUES OF 98 TO 104 DEGREES COMMON.
FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY INLAND FOG IS EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF
NIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING RAINFALL FROM DAILY THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 93 77 92 / 10 20 10 20
FMY 76 93 76 93 / 30 40 20 40
GIF 74 94 74 93 / 40 40 20 40
SRQ 75 90 76 90 / 10 20 10 20
BKV 70 93 72 93 / 10 20 10 20
SPG 79 91 79 91 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
AVIATION...RUDE
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
000
FXUS62 KJAX 171954
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
354 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
INITIAL SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABREEZE...AND
ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA CLOSEST TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LATE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...MAXIMIZING LATE AFTN JUST INLAND OF THE COAST WITH
NUMEROUS POPS...AND SCATTERED FOR MOST OTHER AREAS. SHWRS/TSTMS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES TO
THE EAST AND HEATING IS LOST...WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VSBY
GRIDS INDICATE SOME FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS INTERIOR NE FL IN
GREATEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SO WILL INCLUDE LATE NIGHT EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING PATCHY FOG. DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG
FORMATION. LOWS TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 FAR
INLAND...TO THE LOWER/MID 70S COAST.
FOR TUESDAY...RIDGING IS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY A BIT ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA...WITH MAINLY SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN LESSER PRECIP COVERAGE...THUS WILL USE ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED POPS FOR NE FL TUESDAY AFTN...WITH A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE
ACROSS SE GA ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL HEAT
UP IN THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S
INLAND TO AROUND 90 ON THE COAST. DEWPOINT VALUES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN TODAY...THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN
WELL UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...DRIVING ANOTHER
WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO GEORGIA. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY...NECESSITATES
SCATTERED POPS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR SOUTHEAST GA ON
TUES NIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY POSSIBLY MOVING INTO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND THE I-10 CORRIDOR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. LOWS SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR CLIMO...OR IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND/MID 70S AT THE
COAST. A MODERATE AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL AGAIN RESULT IN AT
LEAST SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REGION-WIDE FOR WED...AND WE MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS IN FUTURE
FORECASTS DEPENDING ON TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MIGRATING
THROUGH THE REGION. UNTIL THAT TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR...WILL
STICK WITH NEAR CLIMO HIGHS FOR WED...NEAR 90 INLAND/UPPER 80S AT
THE COAST. WE WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH/SOUTH POP GRADIENT ON WED
NIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO GEORGIA AND PROVIDES A LITTLE MORE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST GA. NEAR CLIMO
LOWS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT REGION-WIDE.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN LAYER (1000-500 MB) RIDING REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH
FL LATER THIS WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
GA...REACHING THE STATE BORDER ON WED AND THEN STALLING/WASHING
OUT ACROSS NE FL THU-FRI. THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE MOVES BACK TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EACH DAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NE FL THU-FRI. AS THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE LIFTS
BACK TO THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL SEE A DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE INLAND AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVE. MAX TEMPS WILL COOL TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO
THU-SAT DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW...WITH NEAR CLIMO NIGHTTIME LOWS.
LONG-TERM MODELS DEPICT A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IMPACTING THE FL
PENINSULA ON SUN...WHICH MAY ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION LOCALLY.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS THEN PROGGED TO ADVECT INTO OUR REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS. WILL
MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMO POPS/TEMPS FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
MODEL CONSISTENCY REGARDING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE AND DRYING
TREND FOLLOWING THE WAVE FOR SUN-TUES.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
NEAR THE REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
AT EACH TERMINAL FOR A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN
REDUCED VISIBILITIES....AND GUSTY W/SW WINDS AS ACTIVITY GENERALLY
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE E/NE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS BY 02Z. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 5000 FT. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 03Z...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 7000 FT AFTER 12Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SE FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TNGT...AND TO THE
SW TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
MIDWEEK...WITH THE TROUGH/FRONT EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE WATERS
LATE WEEK. HEADLINES ARE GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCEC DURING NOCTURNAL
SURGES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 92 72 90 / 50 40 40 50
SSI 74 88 75 89 / 40 30 30 50
JAX 72 94 74 91 / 40 30 30 50
SGJ 72 91 75 89 / 30 30 30 50
GNV 69 91 71 90 / 30 30 20 40
OCF 70 91 72 90 / 30 20 10 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/NELSON/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KMLB 171952
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...
EARLY START TO DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS BURNED UP MUCH OF THE
AVAILABLE ENERGY ALONG AND N OF U.S. HWY 192. CONVECTION STRUGGLING
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BNDRY DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A MID
LVL VORT MAX APPROACHING THE FL BIG BEND. EXISTING CONVECTION HAS
GENERATED DISTINCT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL INTERACT WITH
EXISTING STORMS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTN TO WORK OVER MOST THE
REMAINING UNMODIFIED AIRMASS. BY SUNSET...MOST OF THE ENERGY SHOULD
BE CONSUMED. WILL KEEP ISOLD TSRAS OVER MOST OF THE CWA THRU LATE
EVNG...SCT COASTAL COUNTIES FROM COASTAL VOLUSIA TO INDIAN RIVER TO
ACCOUNT FOR "BLOW BACK". WEAK S/SWRLY FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN
THE L/M70S.
TUE-WED...
BROAD TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL KEEP THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS PINNED OVER THE S HALF OF FL PENINSULA THRU MID WEEK. H100-H85
MEAN RH AOA 70PCT OVER THE SE GOMEX/NW CARIB WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
FUEL FOR SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION. A SLUG OF DRY AIR OVER THE FL
STRAITS IN THE H85-H50 LYR MAY INHIBIT COVERAGE SOMEWHAT...AND MID
VORTICITY REMAINS LACKING. MODELS HINT AT SOME WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AS WELL AS SWRLY FLOW INCRSG TO 10-15KTS THRU THE H85-H50 STEERING
LYR...A PATTERN THAT WOULD FOCUS SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE E OF THE FL
TURNPIKE AND SETTING UP THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR BLOW BACK
CONVECTION THRU SUNSET.
MAV MOS POPS CAME IN RATHER LOW THRU MIDWEEK...AOB 20PCT TUE AND AOB
30PCT WED. WHILE THE LACK OF VORTICITY AND DRY MID LVL AIR WILL
SERVE TO LIMIT TOTAL STORM ACTIVITY...THE INCREASING MID LVL FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW SEABREEZE MERGERS BY LATE AFTN WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY
PUSHING STORM ACTIVITY ACRS THE PENINSULA. MOS ALSO KEEPS SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L/M70S AREAWIDE THRU MOST OF THE PD...INDICATING A
MOIST AND BUOYANT SFC/LOW LVL AIRMASS. PRECIP DISTRIBUTION LOOKS
REASONABLE...BUT WILL PUSH NUMBERS UP TO 30-40PCT AREAWIDE.
TEMPS A FEW DEGS ABV AVG DUE TO THE SW FLOW...MAXES IN THE L/M90S...
MINS IN THE L/M70S.
EXTENDED...(PREV DISC)
THU-FRI..S/SW LOW LVL FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING TWD THE FL/GA
BORDER AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AROUND 40 PCT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. BY
FRIDAY THE 00Z GFS SHOWS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N FL
RETROGRADING A BIT AS AN INVERTED TROUGH AS LOW LVL ESE FLOW SHOULD
PUSH HIGHER AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS INTERIOR AND NRN
SECTIONS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
SAT-SUN...00Z GFS PROGS AN EASTERLY WAVE WITH SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE
AND A SURGE IN THE LOW LVL SOUTHEAST FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT ONSHORE MOVING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. HIGHER PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD SHIFT TO
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS SOME DRYING IS PROGD WITH DEEP LYR RIDGE BUILDING OFFSHORE FROM
THE CAROLINAS FOR THE COAST LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 17/16Z...VFR ALL SITES...CIGS AOA FL100 N OF KISM-KMLB. BTWN
17/16Z-17/18Z...SFC WNDSHFT FM S TO E/SE KDAB-KSUA ASSOCD WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS
DVLPG ALL SITES. BTWN 17/18Z-17/22Z...SFC WNDSHFT FROM S/SW TO SE AT
KSFB/KMCO/KISM AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND...SEABREEZE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH KLEE...INCRSG MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS COVERAGE FM
ISOLD TO SCT ALL SITES...CONVECTION CONTG THRU 18/03Z DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E. AFT 18/03Z...VFR ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ATLC RIDGE AXIS PARKED JUST N OF THE NRN BAHAMAS AND
EXTENDING JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE
SRLY BREEZE. SEAS 2-3FT AREAWIDE...UP TO 4FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
TSRAS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF PORT CANAVERAL THRU LATE EVNG.
TUE-THU...TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD THRU MIDWEEK WILL
PREVENT THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS FROM MOVING MUCH FURTHER N THAN LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A GENTLE TO MODERATE S-SW BREEZE WILL RESULT WITH SEAS
2-3FT NEARSHORE...3-4FT OFFSHORE. SCT SHRA/TSTM COVERAGE THRU MID
WEEK WITH STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
FRI-SAT...ATLC RIDGE WILL DRIFT N INTO CENTRAL FL LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE ERN SEABOARD TROF WEAKENS AND IS BRIDGED BY ITS POST FRONTAL
CONTINENTAL RIDGE. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY BACKING TO THE S/SE
10-15KTS. SEAS TO 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE. STORM COVERAGE
TO DIMINISH AS STEERING FLOW ALOFT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS ONSHORE WITH
THE PASSING RIDGE AXIS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 92 73 90 / 30 30 30 30
MCO 73 93 73 93 / 30 40 20 40
MLB 75 90 75 90 / 30 40 30 40
VRB 74 89 75 89 / 30 40 30 40
LEE 74 94 75 93 / 20 30 20 30
SFB 74 94 75 94 / 30 40 20 30
ORL 75 94 76 93 / 30 40 20 40
FPR 73 89 74 88 / 30 30 20 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST....BRAGAW
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
000
FXUS62 KKEY 171945
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
340 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 90 DEGREES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...WHILE LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SURFACE WISE...A WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO TUCKED IN THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...JUST EAST OF THE BELIZE COAST. ACROSS OUR
MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC (SFC-500 MB) WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN
ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SPLINTERING BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS EROSION
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A MID LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES DIGGING INTO THE SUNSHINE STATE. BECAUSE OF THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN THE FORM OF
A LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB WILL
PREDOMINATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. BUT
UNTIL THEN...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SPELL OF RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO SUBTLE VEERING WITHIN
A POCKET OF HIGHER MOISTURE MIGRATING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE DECELERATING LOW LEVEL FLOW (SURFACE TO 850
MB) OVERNIGHT DOES NOT PROMOTE DEEP CONVECTION. WITH THIS IN
MIND...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED 20 PERCENT POPS OTHERWISE.
MEANWHILE...CONSIDERABLE INTENSE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AVERAGING JUST ABOVE 80
DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
A DEEP LAYERED...ALBEIT WORN...WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD...AS A POSSIBLE
UNDULATION DRIVES WEST AND ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. BY THE END OF THIS WEEKEND...ANOTHER STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO FILL ITS VOID ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER AND
STABLE AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THAT SAID...IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WET PERIOD WILL BE FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...WITH ISOLATED POPS KEPT OTHERWISE.
TEMPERATURE WISE...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 80 WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 80S OUTSIDE OF
DOWNPOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST ON THE
FLORIDA STRAITS CAN BE EXPECTED...AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
REMAINS ALIGNED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. HENCE...NO EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE OR ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED FOR OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 18/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EYW AND
MTH. SHOWER COVERAGE LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL IN THE LOWEST 10000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE FROM ABOUT 120/12KT. THE PROBABILITY FOR
WETTING RAIN AT EYW WILL BE QUITE LOW HOUR-TO-HOUR...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EYW OR MTH WILL BE TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 83 88 83 88 / 30 30 20 20
MARATHON 84 92 84 92 / 30 30 20 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KBK
DATA ACQUISITION......MP/LK
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTAE 171857
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
257 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms were ongoing across southeast
AL and the FL Panhandle, triggered primarily through mesoscale
forcing (from earlier outflow boundaries). These storms will
continue to affect the northern and western portions of our
forecast area into this evening. Storms over the FL Big Bend will
be isolated, as relatively dry air from the south is advected
across the region. Relatively weak winds aloft will help to
inhibit storm organization, and weak delta theta-e values from the
surface to 625mb make wet microbursts unlikely. Thus our
probability of severe storms this afternoon and evening is low.
The PoP overnight will be 20% or less, and it will be a typically
warm and muggy summer night with lows in the 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Weak upper level troughing across the southeast states will
continue through the short term period. A weak frontal boundary
will sag southward into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday and
provide a focus for scattered afternoon convection, mainly across
the northern areas on Tuesday and then pushing farther south on
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near the seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Some days will likely have slightly
higher PoPs than others depending on the timing of individual weak
shortwaves, which is hard to forecast in the long term. No major
synoptic scale systems are expected to impact the area during the
period. Temperatures are expected to remain near their seasonal
averages.
&&
.AVIATION...
[Through 18z Tuesday] Scattered TSRA will continue across south AL
and south GA into early this evening, affecting KDHN and KABY at
times with brief periods of MVFR/IFR cigs and vis and gusty winds.
Elsewhere the TSRA will be isolated. Outside of any TSRA, VFR
conditions will prevail. Between 09 and 14 UTC we expect MVFR cigs
to develop in south GA and AL, affecting KABY, KVLD, and KDHN.
&&
.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this week, yielding mainly light southwest
to west flow and low seas.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will
remain above locally critical levels. The combination of deep
mixing and somewhat stronger winds aloft will help dispersion
values climb above 75 Tuesday afternoon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 73 93 74 91 71 / 20 20 20 50 30
Panama City 78 89 75 88 76 / 20 20 30 50 30
Dothan 73 92 72 92 72 / 40 50 50 50 30
Albany 73 92 72 93 71 / 40 50 40 50 30
Valdosta 71 92 73 90 70 / 30 30 30 50 30
Cross City 72 91 74 90 72 / 10 10 10 40 30
Apalachicola 77 88 75 87 74 / 10 10 20 50 30
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Near Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Fournier
Short Term/Long Term/Marine/Hydrology...DVD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 171812
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INDICATES
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE REMAINING AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 102-106 DEGREE
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT FORT LAUDERDALE WILL ONLY REACH 81 DEGREES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE LOW...WHICH WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1987 IF IT VERIFIES.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" MARK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY FAVOR THE EAST COAST AREAS
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW. THE
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2" ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 11 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WAS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR KAPF...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
FOR KAPF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. SO SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. FOR NOW...ADDED VCSH AFTER 14Z...AND VCTS MAY BE
NEEDED AROUND 18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 77 88 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 90 80 89 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 79 90 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 91 75 90 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KTAE 171519
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1119 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
The 13 UTC regional surface analysis showed a decaying warm front
(left over from the frontal system that moved through our forecast
area on Friday) from northern MS through southeast AL. There was
also a weak short wave trough translating eastward over southeast
AL and the FL Panhandle. This combination of synoptic systems,
coupled with a moist, unstable airmass has led to the early
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms this morning.
Although the short wave will be moving away this afternoon, there
will probably be enough mesoscale boundaries leftover from this
morning`s storms for rain to continue this afternoon. Our PoP is
50-60% in southeast AL, and 40% in much of our GA zones. The PoP
for the FL Big Bend is 20-30%, as somewhat drier air was
advecting into this region from the south. Vertical wind shear
magnitudes will be typically weak today (20 KT or less), reducing
the likelihood of organized storms. The surface-mid level theta-e
difference is also low, reducing the threat of wet microbursts as
well. The Convection Allowing Models (CAM) do show a couple of
updraft speeds of around 20 m/s, but those speeds aren`t typically
associated with severe storms. Thus the threat of severe storms
appears minimal today. Highs will be in the lower 90s, with a
few normally warmer locations in the mid 90s.
&&
.AVIATION [through 12 UTC Tuesday]...
Scattered TSRA will be the main aviation concern, as usual during
the summer. The highest PoP is at KDHN and KABY, where there could
be occasional impacts (brief IFR/MVFR vis/cigs, lightning, and
gusty winds) from TSRA until later this evening. Otherwise,
generally VFR conditions are expected.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 93 72 92 72 / 30 20 40 20
Panama City 89 75 90 75 / 50 20 30 20
Dothan 92 72 91 73 / 50 30 60 30
Albany 92 73 91 72 / 40 40 60 30
Valdosta 95 71 92 72 / 30 30 40 30
Cross City 91 69 92 71 / 20 10 20 20
Apalachicola 88 75 88 76 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
Fournier
000
FXUS62 KMFL 171429
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1029 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR CHANGES WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST
DATABASE BASED ON THE LATEST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH NO PRODUCT UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. AS OF 1000
AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST
TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WHERE HEAT INDICES WERE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. THE MORNING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FOR MIAMI SHOWED MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ESE
FLOW UP TO AROUND H5 WITH A PWAT AT 1.38" (FAIRLY DRY). THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITIES INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISLTD/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS INITIATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS OF THE PENINSULA BETWEEN 18-19Z THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE
INTERIOR. FEW-SCT025-035 WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
STREAMING FROM THE CARIB DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
FORECAST PWAT`S ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1.4
INCHES. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. FOR TUESDAY SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS IN ADDITION TO THE
ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE PENINSULA. BY WEDNESDAY
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DRIER AIR AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS COULD ENTER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND MIGHT CONTAIN A LOW LEVEL SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH HAZY
SKIES POSSIBLE BUT TIMING COULD VARY DEPENDING ON FUTURE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
MARINE...
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH FAIRLY BENIGN SEAS. EXTENDED FORECAST INDICATES
SIMILAR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 78 88 77 / 10 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 81 89 79 / 10 10 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 90 78 / 10 10 20 20
NAPLES 92 76 91 75 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KKEY 171427
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1022 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2011
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOGRAPHS SHOW PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN. LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF BOUNDARIES TRAVERSING THROUGH OUR REGION.
SURFACE WISE...A STEADY STATE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LIES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE A LARGE
AREA OF DISTURBED AREA IS TUCKED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA...BETWEEN THE NORTH COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT...OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
15 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALS LIMITED MOISTURE
(PWAT 1.39 INCHES) BELOW 900 MB WITH A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC...ALBEIT
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY. ALSO...SEVERAL SHALLOW
ISOTHERMAL/STABLE LAYERS ARE APPARENT BELOW 650 MB.
.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
ALTHOUGH A DEEP...ALBEIT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ALIGNED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ANTICYCLONE...LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE COMBINED
WITH AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW SHOULD LIMIT DEEP CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED...AS WELL AS PUSH ANY DEVELOPING CELLS
TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. AMPLE INTENSE INSOLATION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SINCE THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THE
SITUATION WELL...NO ADJUSTMENT IS PLANNED.
&&
.MARINE...
OUR MORNING SOUNDING INDICATES EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 13 AND 14
KNOTS AT 1 AND 2 THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE KBYX VWP
SHOWS 10 AND 15 KNOTS. GIVEN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE LYING ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA HOLDING IN BOTH LOCATION AND STRENGTH...EXPECT
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS
COASTAL WATERS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AWAY
FROM HEATING ON THE SOUTH FLORIDA MAINLAND. OTHERWISE...ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE CARRIED FOR OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 18/15Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT EYW AND
MTH. SHOWER COVERAGE LIKELY WILL REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL IN THE LOWEST 10000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE...SO ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE FROM ABOUT 120/12KT. THE PROBABILITY FOR
WETTING RAIN AT EYW WILL BE QUITE LOW HOUR-TO-HOUR...AND THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EYW OR MTH WILL BE TOO LOW
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAF.
&&
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................KBK
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 171413
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A LITTLE STRONGER WRLY FLOW ABV H60 THAN
24HRS AGO...BUT STILL QUITE WEAK THRU THE H85-H60 LYR. H100-H70
WINDS HAVE VEERED FROM SE TO S IN RESPONSE TO THE ATLC HIGH PRES
RIDGE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL FL. PWAT VALUES BTWN 1.7"-1.8" OVER
CENTRAL/NORTH FL... DECREASING TO ARND 1.4" OVER SOUTH FL.
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT S THRU THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES EAST AND MERGES WITH A BROAD
TROF OVER THE NE CONUS/ERN CANADA. SWRLY STEERING FLOW WILL
PREVAIL...STRONGER OVER THE N HALF OF THE PENINSULA GIVEN THE
TIGHTER PGRAD AND FURTHER DISTANCE FROM THE RIDGE AXIS.
WRLY FLOW REGIMES FAVOR THE E FL PENINSULA FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION...
SHOULD SEE ACTIVITY DVLP BY EARLY AFTN AND INCREASE THRU LATE AFTN.
INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR S OF THE ORLANDO METROPLEX GIVEN THE
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM LAST NIGHT`S PRECIP. SEABREEZE SHOULD
PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND S OF CAPE CANAVERAL GIVEN THE WEAKER SWRLY
FLOW...COLLISION BNDRY SHOULD LINE UP FROM NE VOLUSIA COUNTY TO THE
N SHORE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. STORM MOTION E/NE ARND BTWN 5-10KTS.
A FEW STRONG TSTMS PSBL AS TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY (H50 ARND -7C)...WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE SPARKING EARLY
CONVECTION OVER THE WRN PANHANDLE COULD ADD SOME OF ITS ENERGY TO
THE MIX OVER CENTRAL FL BY LATE AFTN. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE M/U70S
AND CAPE VALUES ARND 2500J/KG WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF FUEL FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION. SVR WX THREAT WILL BE MUTED...HOWEVER...WITH
H85-H70 AND H85-H50 LAPSE RATES AOB 6C/KM.
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERATE WARM TEMPS AREAWIDE...MAXES IN THE L90S
ALONG THE COAST...M90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 17/16Z...VFR ALL SITES...CIGS AOA FL100 N OF KISM-KMLB. BTWN
17/16Z-17/18Z...SFC WNDSHFT FM S TO E/SE KDAB-KSUA ASSOCD WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS
DVLPG ALL SITES. BTWN 17/18Z-17/22Z...SFC WNDSHFT FROM S/SW TO SE AT
KSFB/KMCO/KISM AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND...SEABREEZE NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH KLEE...INCRSG MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS COVERAGE FM
ISOLD TO SCT ALL SITES...CONVECTION CONTG THRU 18/03Z DIMINISHING
FROM W TO E. AFT 18/03Z...VFR ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL GENERATE A LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE
ACRS THE LCL ATLC...SFC/BNDRY LYR WNDS BCMG LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE
NEAR THE COAST BY MIDDAY AS THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE DVLPS AND
PUSHES INLAND. DATA BUOYS MEASURING 2FT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 3FT
OFFSHORE...MAINLY IN AN ERLY SWELL...BUOYS AND C-MAN STATIONS
MEASURING WINDS BLO 10KTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVED DATA...WAVE
MODEL APPEARS TO BE ABOUT A FOOT HIGH...WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE
ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE MORNING UPDATE. SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS MOVING
OFFSHORE THIS AFTN/EVNG...ESPECIALLY N OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST....BRAGAW
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
000
FXUS62 KJAX 171316
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
916 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
OFFSHORE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GA INTO THE
EASTERN GULF WILL ENTER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS...ALONG
WITH SEABREEZE/SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. THINK INITIAL CONVECTION
WILL FIRE CLOSE TO THE COAST AND FAR INLAND CLOSER TO THE
SHORTWAVE EARLY THIS AFTN...FILLING ACROSS MOST AREAS BY LATE AFTN.
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S
ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS MID MORNING WILL LIFT BY AFTN. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED AS SEABREEZES PUSHES INLAND AND
A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL
PORTS 17-18Z THROUGH THE AFTN.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW ENE OF THE REGION PROVIDING SE TO S WINDS FOR
TODAY. AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TUE/WED...WINDS WILL
BECOME SW INTO THURS. THE TROUGH/FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY. NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SCEC DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 91 72 92 73 / 50 50 50 40
SSI 86 75 90 77 / 40 40 40 30
JAX 91 70 92 73 / 50 50 40 40
SGJ 87 73 90 73 / 40 40 30 30
GNV 91 69 92 72 / 30 30 30 20
OCF 91 70 92 73 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN
000
FXUS62 KTBW 171314
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
914 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...MODELS APPEAR ON TRACK WITH HANDLING OF MAJOR FORECAST
ELEMENTS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS DRIVING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY...PRIMARILY OVER INLAND AREAS. PATTERN CHANGES ON
FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST...PINNING SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARER TO THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...17/12Z-18/12Z...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA BECOME SCT AS THEY
MOVE INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS WITH VCNTY TSRA ONLY AT
INLAND/SOUTHERN TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN TERMINALS
COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA LATE EVENING. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING SHIFT TO ONSHORE LATER FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS WILL BE 5 KNOTS OR
LESS THIS MORNING...BECOMING SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE 1 FOOT OR LESS...WITH A
LIGHT CHOP ON COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 91 76 91 77 / 20 10 10 10
FMY 94 75 91 76 / 40 30 10 20
GIF 93 75 93 75 / 50 30 50 10
SRQ 90 75 90 75 / 20 10 10 10
BKV 92 69 92 71 / 20 10 20 10
SPG 91 79 90 80 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE...MROCZKA/LEWIS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RUDE
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