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000
FXUS62 KMFL 010538 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 20Z...BEFORE A LAST EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
TO SWING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 19Z TODAY
BEFORE SWINGING BACK TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 00Z.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH 15Z TODAY OVER ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BEFORE VCSH BE ADDED FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. VCTS
WILL THEN BE ADDED FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND
00Z TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AFTER
15Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR THE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEATHER IS QUIETING DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
EXCEPT IN THE LAKE REGION, WHERE THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS
CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN THAT AREA IS MUCH
QUIETER THAN AN HOUR AGO. GIVEN THIS, AND LOOKING AT THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND THE HRRR, HAVE LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED WEATHER FROM
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OTHER WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  87  76  87 /  30  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  87 /  30  60  20  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  87 /  30  70  10  60
NAPLES           77  88  76  88 /  10  40  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 010538 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 20Z...BEFORE A LAST EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
TO SWING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 19Z TODAY
BEFORE SWINGING BACK TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 00Z.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH 15Z TODAY OVER ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BEFORE VCSH BE ADDED FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. VCTS
WILL THEN BE ADDED FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND
00Z TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AFTER
15Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR THE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEATHER IS QUIETING DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
EXCEPT IN THE LAKE REGION, WHERE THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS
CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN THAT AREA IS MUCH
QUIETER THAN AN HOUR AGO. GIVEN THIS, AND LOOKING AT THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND THE HRRR, HAVE LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED WEATHER FROM
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OTHER WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  87  76  87 /  30  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  87 /  30  60  20  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  87 /  30  70  10  60
NAPLES           77  88  76  88 /  10  40  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 010228
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ARE DETECTED BY DOPPLER RADAR...MAINLY ALONG A WEAK...
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CONVERGENCE LINE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. EARLIER...SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AFFECTED THE COMMUNITY OF OCEAN REEF. HOWEVER...FEW OTHER ISLAND
COMMUNITIES RECEIVED HAVE RECEIVED RAIN SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE KEY
WEST EVENING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
DOWN LOW WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION WITH
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY. HOWEVER...WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
MOMENTUM AND SLIGHTLY DIFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CHANCES FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS
INDICATE ONLY SLIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
STEADILY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING FRONT MAY STALL NEAR
THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 010228
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ARE DETECTED BY DOPPLER RADAR...MAINLY ALONG A WEAK...
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CONVERGENCE LINE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. EARLIER...SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AFFECTED THE COMMUNITY OF OCEAN REEF. HOWEVER...FEW OTHER ISLAND
COMMUNITIES RECEIVED HAVE RECEIVED RAIN SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE KEY
WEST EVENING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
DOWN LOW WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION WITH
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY. HOWEVER...WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
MOMENTUM AND SLIGHTLY DIFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CHANCES FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS
INDICATE ONLY SLIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
STEADILY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING FRONT MAY STALL NEAR
THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 010228
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ARE DETECTED BY DOPPLER RADAR...MAINLY ALONG A WEAK...
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CONVERGENCE LINE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. EARLIER...SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AFFECTED THE COMMUNITY OF OCEAN REEF. HOWEVER...FEW OTHER ISLAND
COMMUNITIES RECEIVED HAVE RECEIVED RAIN SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE KEY
WEST EVENING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
DOWN LOW WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION WITH
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY. HOWEVER...WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
MOMENTUM AND SLIGHTLY DIFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CHANCES FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS
INDICATE ONLY SLIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
STEADILY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING FRONT MAY STALL NEAR
THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 010228
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS ARE DETECTED BY DOPPLER RADAR...MAINLY ALONG A WEAK...
SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CONVERGENCE LINE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. EARLIER...SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AFFECTED THE COMMUNITY OF OCEAN REEF. HOWEVER...FEW OTHER ISLAND
COMMUNITIES RECEIVED HAVE RECEIVED RAIN SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE KEY
WEST EVENING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION REVEALED A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
DOWN LOW WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC STRATIFICATION WITH
WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ENERGY. HOWEVER...WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER
MOMENTUM AND SLIGHTLY DIFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO LOW
CHANCES FOR INITIATION OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECASTS
INDICATE ONLY SLIGHT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT...SO NO
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES AND NO HEADLINES. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
STEADILY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE WEAKENING FRONT MAY STALL NEAR
THE FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 010200
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT N/NW H100-H70 FLOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONTAL TROF FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT. N/NE WINDS ALREADY IMPINGING ON THE COAST N OF CAPE
CANAVERAL AS EVIDENCED BY SHRA MOTION OFF THE COAST OVER THE PAST
FEW HRS.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF H85-H50 VORTICITY PUSHING
ONSHORE OVER TAMPA BAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN CWA THRU MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...
UPR LVLS ARE CONVERGENT AS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA IS UNDER THE
DESCENDING RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF A WEAK H30-H20 JET STREAK...WHILE THE
LIGHT NRLY FLOW PUSHES WEAK LAPSE RATES ACRS THE CWA: H85-H70
READINGS ARE ALREADY BLO 5.0C/KM WHILE H70-H50 READINGS BLO 5.5C/KM
WERE PUSHING INTO THE SPACE COAST BY LATE EVNG. EVNG RAOBS WERE
DEPICTING THIS DRY AIR AS WELL WITH A NOTEWORTHY SLUG OF DRY AIR ABV
H60 NOTED ON BOTH KJAX/KTAE SOUNDINGS.

WILL SHOULD ONTO SLGT CHC POPS OVER ARND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
THRU MIDNIGHT...ALSO SLGT CHC ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE NWD AS
THE DVLPG N/NE FLOW WILL PUSH ISOLD SHRAS ONSHORE. IN ADDITION...THE
FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...HEADLINES WILL BE REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 01/08Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...SLGT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR
SHRAS BTWN KOMN-KTIX...W/SE SFC WNDS ARND 5KTS BCMG LGT/VRBL. BTWN
01/08Z-01/14Z...AREAS IFR/LCL LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS N OF KISM-KTIX IN
STRATUS/BR. BTWN 01/14Z-01/18Z...W/NW SFC WNDS 5-10KTS BCMG E/NE...
CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT N/NE BREEZE DVLPG OVERNIGHT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NWD AS A
WEAK FRONTAL TROF PUSHES INTO THE LCL ATLC. S OF THE INLET...A LIGHT
TO GENTLE W/SW BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE...2-3FT
OFFSHORE....DOMINANT PDS ARND 8SEC. ISOLD SHRAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN HAS CAUSED THE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE THIS EVENING. GAUGE INFORMATION
FROM A MONITORING STATION UPSTREAM SUGGESTS THE CREEK WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF
WITHIN ACTION STAGE.

ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT ASTOR
AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY
AND THESE SITES MAY APPROACH OR REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.....PENDERGRAST
HYDROLOGY...........ULRICH






000
FXUS62 KMLB 010200
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT N/NW H100-H70 FLOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL PUSH A WEAK
FRONTAL TROF FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT. N/NE WINDS ALREADY IMPINGING ON THE COAST N OF CAPE
CANAVERAL AS EVIDENCED BY SHRA MOTION OFF THE COAST OVER THE PAST
FEW HRS.

LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF H85-H50 VORTICITY PUSHING
ONSHORE OVER TAMPA BAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT FOR
LINGERING SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE SRN CWA THRU MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...
UPR LVLS ARE CONVERGENT AS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA IS UNDER THE
DESCENDING RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF A WEAK H30-H20 JET STREAK...WHILE THE
LIGHT NRLY FLOW PUSHES WEAK LAPSE RATES ACRS THE CWA: H85-H70
READINGS ARE ALREADY BLO 5.0C/KM WHILE H70-H50 READINGS BLO 5.5C/KM
WERE PUSHING INTO THE SPACE COAST BY LATE EVNG. EVNG RAOBS WERE
DEPICTING THIS DRY AIR AS WELL WITH A NOTEWORTHY SLUG OF DRY AIR ABV
H60 NOTED ON BOTH KJAX/KTAE SOUNDINGS.

WILL SHOULD ONTO SLGT CHC POPS OVER ARND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
THRU MIDNIGHT...ALSO SLGT CHC ALONG THE COAST FROM THE CAPE NWD AS
THE DVLPG N/NE FLOW WILL PUSH ISOLD SHRAS ONSHORE. IN ADDITION...THE
FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED...HEADLINES WILL BE REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 01/08Z...PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...SLGT CHC OF BRIEF MVFR
SHRAS BTWN KOMN-KTIX...W/SE SFC WNDS ARND 5KTS BCMG LGT/VRBL. BTWN
01/08Z-01/14Z...AREAS IFR/LCL LIFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS N OF KISM-KTIX IN
STRATUS/BR. BTWN 01/14Z-01/18Z...W/NW SFC WNDS 5-10KTS BCMG E/NE...
CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT N/NE BREEZE DVLPG OVERNIGHT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET NWD AS A
WEAK FRONTAL TROF PUSHES INTO THE LCL ATLC. S OF THE INLET...A LIGHT
TO GENTLE W/SW BREEZE WILL PREVAIL. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE...2-3FT
OFFSHORE....DOMINANT PDS ARND 8SEC. ISOLD SHRAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RECENT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN HAS CAUSED THE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL TO RISE TO ACTION STAGE THIS EVENING. GAUGE INFORMATION
FROM A MONITORING STATION UPSTREAM SUGGESTS THE CREEK WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY RISE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF
WITHIN ACTION STAGE.

ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT ASTOR
AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. RIVER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY
AND THESE SITES MAY APPROACH OR REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.....PENDERGRAST
HYDROLOGY...........ULRICH




  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTAE 010133
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
933 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Finally looks to be a break in the pattern of cloudy weather in
the near future. The stratus deck was slowly eroding from the
north and west and continues to gradually thin this evening.
Further aloft, as weak shortwave ridging builds in, the airmass
has continued to dry out with the overall precipitable water down
to 1.63 inches. In areas that have cleared out, the low levels
remain moist enough to support patchy fog development before
sunrise. Still will be mild overnight with lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...
Ceilings lifted to VFR prior to TAF issuance and have slowly
cleared from DHN/ECP. Expect clearing at ABY around 03z and
possibly into TLH around 06z. However, with the near surface layer
remaining quite moist, expect redevelopment (or lowering) of
ceilings to at least MVFR levels before sunrise. IFR conditions
are possible at VLD. Expect the cloud deck to scatter a bit faster
on Wednesday with VFR all sites by 16z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [319 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short
lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for
Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during
the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the
afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms
tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain
chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL
Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually
increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday
night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle
towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead
of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms
becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the
Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This
convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the
NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday
night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out
ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a
strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real
taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will
generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier
air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the
lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the
front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.


.Marine...

Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening,
light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a
fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold
front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold
front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive
behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop
below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.


.Hydrology...

Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the
fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total
rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with
isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event
produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system
should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at
best.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  89  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   71  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        66  88  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  30  40
Albany        66  89  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      67  89  67  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
Cross City    69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  72  85  73  85  75 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 010133
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
933 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Finally looks to be a break in the pattern of cloudy weather in
the near future. The stratus deck was slowly eroding from the
north and west and continues to gradually thin this evening.
Further aloft, as weak shortwave ridging builds in, the airmass
has continued to dry out with the overall precipitable water down
to 1.63 inches. In areas that have cleared out, the low levels
remain moist enough to support patchy fog development before
sunrise. Still will be mild overnight with lows in the mid to
upper 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...
Ceilings lifted to VFR prior to TAF issuance and have slowly
cleared from DHN/ECP. Expect clearing at ABY around 03z and
possibly into TLH around 06z. However, with the near surface layer
remaining quite moist, expect redevelopment (or lowering) of
ceilings to at least MVFR levels before sunrise. IFR conditions
are possible at VLD. Expect the cloud deck to scatter a bit faster
on Wednesday with VFR all sites by 16z.

&&

.Prev Discussion [319 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short
lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for
Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during
the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the
afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms
tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain
chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL
Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually
increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday
night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle
towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead
of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms
becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the
Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This
convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the
NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday
night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out
ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a
strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real
taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will
generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier
air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the
lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the
front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.


.Marine...

Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening,
light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a
fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold
front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold
front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive
behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop
below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.


.Hydrology...

Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the
fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total
rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with
isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event
produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system
should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at
best.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  89  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   71  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        66  88  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  30  40
Albany        66  89  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      67  89  67  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
Cross City    69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  72  85  73  85  75 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD




  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 010115
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PASCO/PINELLAS
COUNTY COAST EAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO
SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS HAVE SETUP WHILE THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PERSIST SOUTH OF
IT. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT MORE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND SOME OF THIS
COULD MOVE ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WITH THE
REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY STILL AROUND WE SHOULD SEE MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOP. IN GENERAL THE GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST LOOK ON
TRACK AND WILL ONLY UPDATE ZONES TO ADJUST RAIN CHANCE WORDING FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST FROM ABOUT SRQ NORTHWARD.
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY IT LOOKS LIKE MVFR/AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
LOWER CEILINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED MAKE IT TO PGD...FMY AND RSW AT
THIS TIME...BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR MOVEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BUT MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
OVERNIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTHEAST TO EAST AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND THIS WILL SETUP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS INTO
WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
AT AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. MAIN HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND CLOSE TO THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  89  76  88 /  20  50  20  40
FMY  75  91  75  91 /  30  50  20  50
GIF  72  90  74  90 /  20  60  30  50
SRQ  74  87  76  88 /  30  50  20  40
BKV  69  89  70  89 /  20  50  20  50
SPG  77  86  78  88 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON






000
FXUS62 KMFL 010028
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
828 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER IS QUIETING DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
EXCEPT IN THE LAKE REGION, WHERE THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS
CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN THAT AREA IS MUCH
QUIETER THAN AN HOUR AGO. GIVEN THIS, AND LOOKING AT THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND THE HRRR, HAVE LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED WEATHER FROM
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OTHER WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  30  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  10  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  10  60  30  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG



000
FXUS62 KMFL 010028
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
828 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER IS QUIETING DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
EXCEPT IN THE LAKE REGION, WHERE THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS
CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN THAT AREA IS MUCH
QUIETER THAN AN HOUR AGO. GIVEN THIS, AND LOOKING AT THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND THE HRRR, HAVE LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED WEATHER FROM
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OTHER WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  30  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  10  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  10  60  30  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 010010
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
810 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014


.UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
AND DRYING ALOFT. RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS DECREASING OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES SO WILL DROP FLOOD WATCH AS HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER COASTAL SE GA AND THIS CLEARING
IS WORKING SOUTH INTO NE FL THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF LATE
NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OF CLEARING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT...AND AROUND 70
FAR SOUTH...AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SKY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH
ALL SITES EVENTUALLY REACHING VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...GNV AND
VQQ COULD STILL SEE INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
SKIES BECOME BKN FOR BRIEF PERIODS. WITH GRADUAL CLEARING...FOG
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT ALL
SITES LESS SSI. GNV WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW LONG BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER PERSIST...ALLOWING ENOUGH RADIATIVE COOLING. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT VSBYS FOR VQQ AT LOW END MVFR...GNV AT LOW END IFR...AND
JAX/CRG REMAINING VFR WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTIONS IN BR.
TOMORROW...GNV COULD SEE MVFR CIGS LAST INTO THE LATE
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES ONCE
EARLY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.


&&

.MARINE...ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WINDS. WILL
LIKELY DROP SCEC HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  87  67  87 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  71  83  73  84 /  20  40  30  30
GNV  69  86  69  88 /  10  50  40  30
OCF  71  86  70  88 /  40  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/GUILLET/MCALLISTER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 010010
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
810 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014


.UPDATE...SURFACE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING
AND DRYING ALOFT. RAIN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS DECREASING OVER
SOUTHERN ZONES SO WILL DROP FLOOD WATCH AS HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER COASTAL SE GA AND THIS CLEARING
IS WORKING SOUTH INTO NE FL THIS EVENING. EXPECT AREAS OF LATE
NIGHT STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OF CLEARING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT...AND AROUND 70
FAR SOUTH...AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...SKY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT WITH
ALL SITES EVENTUALLY REACHING VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...GNV AND
VQQ COULD STILL SEE INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
SKIES BECOME BKN FOR BRIEF PERIODS. WITH GRADUAL CLEARING...FOG
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AT ALL
SITES LESS SSI. GNV WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON HOW LONG BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER PERSIST...ALLOWING ENOUGH RADIATIVE COOLING. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT VSBYS FOR VQQ AT LOW END MVFR...GNV AT LOW END IFR...AND
JAX/CRG REMAINING VFR WITH MINIMAL RESTRICTIONS IN BR.
TOMORROW...GNV COULD SEE MVFR CIGS LAST INTO THE LATE
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES ONCE
EARLY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.


&&

.MARINE...ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING ALONG WITH WINDS. WILL
LIKELY DROP SCEC HEADLINE FOR TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  87  67  87 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  71  83  73  84 /  20  40  30  30
GNV  69  86  69  88 /  10  50  40  30
OCF  71  86  70  88 /  40  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/GUILLET/MCALLISTER







000
FXUS62 KMFL 010002
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  20  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 010002
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  20  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 010002
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  20  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 010002
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  20  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KTBW 301956
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM IN FROM OFF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
HEAVY RAINS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD EXPECTED. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN STALL
AGAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT WEAKENS
FURTHER. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN...PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA
SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN CONTINUING TO OVERSPREAD THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S
ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (PW`S IN THE 1.8 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE) WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED (POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

ON FRIDAY WEAK MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL AS
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED RANGE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION.

DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
COOLER DRIER FALL LIKE AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN
GULF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE ALONG PREVIOUS MODEL RUN TRENDS
SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH A BLEND OF MODELS BEING USED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WILL FALL BACK TO OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA CAUSING
TEMPO GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE VFR PREVAILS. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 02Z...WITH A FEW EARLY MORNING COASTAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
AFTER 15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND CLOSE TO STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  89  76  88 /  30  50  20  40
FMY  75  90  75  90 /  30  50  20  50
GIF  72  90  74  90 /  40  60  30  50
SRQ  74  87  76  88 /  30  50  20  40
BKV  69  88  70  89 /  40  50  20  50
SPG  77  86  78  88 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301940
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  20  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  20  60  20  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301940
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  20  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  20  60  20  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301940
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  20  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  20  60  20  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301940
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  20  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  20  60  20  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG/DG




000
FXUS62 KMLB 301935
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...SO FAR THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LESS
THAN YESTERDAY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A VORTICITY MAX MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE VORT MAX SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE
WARM MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE LIKELY SHOWERS AND STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE ATLANTIC COAST COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
STRATOFORM RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THE LOW AND MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IF ANY OVER THE
MAINLAND AS NEGATIVE VORTICITY MOVES OVERHEAD THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A VERY WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY PARCEL CROSSES
OVERHEAD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S.

WED...MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENS/BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE DAY THEN AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER FLORIDA. MAV MOS GUIDANCE PLACED LIKELY POP/60  IN THE CENTER
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 50 POP EITHER SIDE. MODELS INDICATING
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER COUPLED WITH A
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING OVERHEAD JUSTIFIES GOING A LITTLE ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND PLACING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 60 POP FOR
ANOTHER DAY.

THU...MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE OVER ZEALOUS IN PUSHING THE FRONT CLEAR
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ESPECIALLY WHEN SUGGESTING 40 POP BEHIND A FRONT
AND A MORE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS BEING ADVECT ONSHORE BY THE
PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND. PREFER TO GO WITH GUIDANCE FOR ANOTHER
RUN THEN RETHINK THU POP.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED ZONE DISCUSSION

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR TEMPO IFR IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET.

IFR STRATUS TO BE A PROBLEM LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT-WED...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS FROM BUOY 009 AT
20NM OFFSHORE AND 4 FOOT SEAS AT BUOY 010 AT 120NM OFFSHORE.

WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN NORTHEAST
TO EAST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PENINSULA.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA BREEZE FORMATION. WIND
SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR
STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD WITH THE REALISTIC
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER THE INTRACOASTAL
AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AMPLE MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME 4 FT
SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS TO SMALL
CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING....GUSTY
WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT
ASTOR WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY...
MAY APPROACH OR REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK
HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT
CAMPBELL THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE
NEED FOR A SHORT FUSE FLOOD STATEMENT OR WARNING IN THIS AREA LATE
TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  84  73  86 /  50  60  30  40
MCO  72  89  73  90 /  50  60  30  40
MLB  72  87  74  88 /  50  60  30  40
VRB  71  89  73  88 /  50  60  30  40
LEE  72  88  73  89 /  50  60  30  40
SFB  73  88  73  89 /  50  60  30  40
ORL  74  89  74  89 /  50  60  30  40
FPR  71  87  72  88 /  30  60  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 301935
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...SO FAR THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LESS
THAN YESTERDAY BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS A VORTICITY MAX MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE VORT MAX SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR THE
WARM MOIST ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE LIKELY SHOWERS AND STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ON THE ATLANTIC COAST COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
STRATOFORM RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH LATE EVENING AS THE LOW AND MID
LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS THIN OUT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IF ANY OVER THE
MAINLAND AS NEGATIVE VORTICITY MOVES OVERHEAD THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND A VERY WEAK POSITIVE VORTICITY PARCEL CROSSES
OVERHEAD THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS IN THE LOW AND
MID 70S.

WED...MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW
FLATTENS/BECOMES ZONAL FOR THE DAY THEN AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
OVER FLORIDA. MAV MOS GUIDANCE PLACED LIKELY POP/60  IN THE CENTER
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 50 POP EITHER SIDE. MODELS INDICATING
THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT OVER COUPLED WITH A
VORTICITY MAX CROSSING OVERHEAD JUSTIFIES GOING A LITTLE ABOVE
GUIDANCE AND PLACING ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 60 POP FOR
ANOTHER DAY.

THU...MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE OVER ZEALOUS IN PUSHING THE FRONT CLEAR
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ESPECIALLY WHEN SUGGESTING 40 POP BEHIND A FRONT
AND A MORE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS BEING ADVECT ONSHORE BY THE
PREVAILING NORTHEAST WIND. PREFER TO GO WITH GUIDANCE FOR ANOTHER
RUN THEN RETHINK THU POP.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED ZONE DISCUSSION

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING MVFR TEMPO IFR IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET.

IFR STRATUS TO BE A PROBLEM LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYLIGHT MORNING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT-WED...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS FROM BUOY 009 AT
20NM OFFSHORE AND 4 FOOT SEAS AT BUOY 010 AT 120NM OFFSHORE.

WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK PRE FRONTAL
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN NORTHEAST
TO EAST THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN THE PENINSULA.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI. ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO
THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH
NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA BREEZE FORMATION. WIND
SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR
STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD WITH THE REALISTIC
THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER THE INTRACOASTAL
AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AMPLE MOISTURE
CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME 4 FT
SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS TO SMALL
CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING....GUSTY
WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT
ASTOR WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY...
MAY APPROACH OR REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK
HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT
CAMPBELL THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE
NEED FOR A SHORT FUSE FLOOD STATEMENT OR WARNING IN THIS AREA LATE
TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  84  73  86 /  50  60  30  40
MCO  72  89  73  90 /  50  60  30  40
MLB  72  87  74  88 /  50  60  30  40
VRB  71  89  73  88 /  50  60  30  40
LEE  72  88  73  89 /  50  60  30  40
SFB  73  88  73  89 /  50  60  30  40
ORL  74  89  74  89 /  50  60  30  40
FPR  71  87  72  88 /  30  60  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-
     NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN
     BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 301919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...A Taste of Fall weather is on the way for the weekend...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An upper level ridge is moving in from the west. At the Sfc low
pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area this
evening. Drier air will move in from the northwest. The northwestern
part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the early evening
hours. Elsewhere cloud cover will persist until shortly after
sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low 80s. The
lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with highs this
afternoon. Min temps overnight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short
lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for
Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during
the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the
afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms
tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain
chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL
Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually
increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday
night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle
towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead
of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms
becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the
Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This
convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the
NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday
night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out
ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a
strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real
taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will
generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier
air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the
lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the
front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR
cigs across the region. ABY and DHN will scatter out late
afternoon/early evening. TLH, ECP and VLD will scatter out shortly
after sunset. Expect MVFR conditions in the early morning hours at
TLH and VLD ending shortly after sunrise.

&&

.Marine...

Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening,
light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a
fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold
front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold
front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive
behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop
below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...

Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the
fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total
rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with
isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event
produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system
should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at
best.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  89  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   71  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        66  88  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  30  40
Albany        66  89  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      67  89  67  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
Cross City    69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  72  85  73  85  75 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 301919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...A Taste of Fall weather is on the way for the weekend...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An upper level ridge is moving in from the west. At the Sfc low
pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area this
evening. Drier air will move in from the northwest. The northwestern
part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the early evening
hours. Elsewhere cloud cover will persist until shortly after
sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low 80s. The
lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with highs this
afternoon. Min temps overnight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short
lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for
Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during
the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the
afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms
tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain
chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL
Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually
increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday
night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle
towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead
of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms
becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the
Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This
convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the
NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday
night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out
ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a
strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real
taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will
generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier
air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the
lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the
front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR
cigs across the region. ABY and DHN will scatter out late
afternoon/early evening. TLH, ECP and VLD will scatter out shortly
after sunset. Expect MVFR conditions in the early morning hours at
TLH and VLD ending shortly after sunrise.

&&

.Marine...

Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening,
light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a
fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold
front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold
front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive
behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop
below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...

Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the
fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total
rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with
isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event
produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system
should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at
best.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  89  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   71  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        66  88  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  30  40
Albany        66  89  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      67  89  67  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
Cross City    69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  72  85  73  85  75 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 301919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...A Taste of Fall weather is on the way for the weekend...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An upper level ridge is moving in from the west. At the Sfc low
pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area this
evening. Drier air will move in from the northwest. The northwestern
part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the early evening
hours. Elsewhere cloud cover will persist until shortly after
sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low 80s. The
lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with highs this
afternoon. Min temps overnight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short
lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for
Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during
the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the
afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms
tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain
chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL
Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually
increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday
night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle
towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead
of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms
becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the
Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This
convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the
NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday
night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out
ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a
strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real
taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will
generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier
air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the
lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the
front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR
cigs across the region. ABY and DHN will scatter out late
afternoon/early evening. TLH, ECP and VLD will scatter out shortly
after sunset. Expect MVFR conditions in the early morning hours at
TLH and VLD ending shortly after sunrise.

&&

.Marine...

Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening,
light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a
fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold
front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold
front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive
behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop
below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...

Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the
fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total
rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with
isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event
produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system
should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at
best.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  89  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   71  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        66  88  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  30  40
Albany        66  89  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      67  89  67  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
Cross City    69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  72  85  73  85  75 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 301919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...A Taste of Fall weather is on the way for the weekend...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An upper level ridge is moving in from the west. At the Sfc low
pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area this
evening. Drier air will move in from the northwest. The northwestern
part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the early evening
hours. Elsewhere cloud cover will persist until shortly after
sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low 80s. The
lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with highs this
afternoon. Min temps overnight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short
lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for
Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during
the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the
afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms
tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain
chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL
Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually
increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday
night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle
towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead
of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms
becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the
Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This
convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the
NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday
night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out
ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a
strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real
taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will
generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier
air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the
lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the
front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR
cigs across the region. ABY and DHN will scatter out late
afternoon/early evening. TLH, ECP and VLD will scatter out shortly
after sunset. Expect MVFR conditions in the early morning hours at
TLH and VLD ending shortly after sunrise.

&&

.Marine...

Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening,
light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a
fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold
front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold
front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive
behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop
below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...

Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the
fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total
rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with
isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event
produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system
should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at
best.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  89  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   71  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        66  88  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  30  40
Albany        66  89  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      67  89  67  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
Cross City    69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  72  85  73  85  75 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD






000
FXUS62 KJAX 301853
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

LATEST ANALYSIS WOULD INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SUNK
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SEEING A CONVERGENT BAND OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING WEST FROM THE LOW INTO SGJ. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO PIVOT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COULD STILL SEE A
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND CONVERGENT BAND. SO CONTINUING
WITH FLOOD WATCH...SINCE SOME OF THESE AREAS ARE STILL SATURATED
FROM RECENT RAINS.

WITH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ANTICIPATE FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS
INVERSION FORMS.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S TONIGHT...EXCEPT
FAR SOUTH...AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THE WEAK FRONT WILL BE STALLED OVER CENTRAL FL AREA
WHILE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDE W TO E OVER THE ERN GULF AND
PORTIONS OF FL. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RESIDES IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO
SUPPORT A RISK OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE A COUPLE OF TSTMS OVER NE FL
ON WED AFTN-EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AROUND ALACHUA...MARION AND GILCHRIST
COUNTIES BUT MAINLY LESS THAN 1/3 INCH. PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE LATE WED NIGHT. TENDED TO LEAN ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS FOR WED BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND SCT-BKN
CLOUDINESS...MAINLY MID 80S. LOWER 80S EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.

THU...AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES A SOMEWHAT DRIER DAY THOUGH
WE STILL ANTICIPATE ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTN TSTM.
SHOWERS FIRST POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS DUE TO
MOIST NELY FLOW...THEN PROGRESS INLAND DURING THE DAY. SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THU NIGHT...AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE EVENING AND SLOWLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN.

FRI...NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MS VALLEY EWD TO THE
APPALACHIANS TO WRN FL PANHANDLE. WE SHOULD SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE AFTN HOURS WITH TEMPS WARMING UP TO MID AND UPPER 80S.
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH HIGHER
COVERAGE POSSIBLE OVER SE GA CLOSER TO MAIN FORCING OF UPPER TROUGH.
FRONT PRESSES THROUGH GA AND NRN FL OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY-TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS FCST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SAT
WILL BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE FALL. HAVE NUDGED
POPS DOWNWARD A BIT ON SAT AS MODELS HAVE PRECIP EXIT THE AREA
AFTER 18Z. INTRUSION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL LATE SAT
AND INTO SUN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AREA WIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND
60 INLAND...WITH 60S ALONG THE COAST. MAY EVEN SEE SOME UPPER 40S IN
NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS SUN AND MON MORNING OVER SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...

LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN HAS ALLOWED FOR MIXING...TO
LIFT CIG HEIGHTS AND PROVIDE BREAKS. EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COULD SEE FOG AND STRATUS
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH WHERE THERE WILL BE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A LINGERING BOUNDARY.

&&

.MARINE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES WINDS WILL DECREASE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  87  67  87 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  70  81  71  81 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  10  20  20  20
SGJ  71  83  73  84 /  20  40  30  30
GNV  69  86  69  88 /  10  50  40  30
OCF  71  86  70  88 /  40  60  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER-MARION-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY






000
FXUS62 KKEY 301818
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 12000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND
FIELD LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CUMULUS CLOUD LINES TO BUILD
DIRECTLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA FRIDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE STALLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS MAY INVADE THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TRIMMED BACK BY 10 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PROHIBITIVELY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...CORROBORATED BY AVAILABLE SATELLITE BASED
SOUNDINGS. VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH ISLAND
BASED WEBCAMS DESCRIBE ONLY THIN CUMULUS LINES WITH VERY LITTLE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THUS...NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1945...THE DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO
TIED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST DURING
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81 89 80 89 / 10 20 30 40
MARATHON  79 90 79 90 / 10 20 30 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.............CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301818
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 12000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND
FIELD LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CUMULUS CLOUD LINES TO BUILD
DIRECTLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA FRIDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE STALLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS MAY INVADE THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TRIMMED BACK BY 10 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PROHIBITIVELY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...CORROBORATED BY AVAILABLE SATELLITE BASED
SOUNDINGS. VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH ISLAND
BASED WEBCAMS DESCRIBE ONLY THIN CUMULUS LINES WITH VERY LITTLE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THUS...NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1945...THE DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO
TIED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST DURING
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81 89 80 89 / 10 20 30 40
MARATHON  79 90 79 90 / 10 20 30 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.............CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301818
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 12000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND
FIELD LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CUMULUS CLOUD LINES TO BUILD
DIRECTLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA FRIDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE STALLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS MAY INVADE THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TRIMMED BACK BY 10 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PROHIBITIVELY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...CORROBORATED BY AVAILABLE SATELLITE BASED
SOUNDINGS. VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH ISLAND
BASED WEBCAMS DESCRIBE ONLY THIN CUMULUS LINES WITH VERY LITTLE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THUS...NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1945...THE DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO
TIED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST DURING
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81 89 80 89 / 10 20 30 40
MARATHON  79 90 79 90 / 10 20 30 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.............CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301818
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN
2000 FEET AND 12000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED
FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE SHORT
TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND
FIELD LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CUMULUS CLOUD LINES TO BUILD
DIRECTLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA FRIDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS STEADILY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BEFORE STALLING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FLORIDA KEYS LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS MAY INVADE THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
TRIMMED BACK BY 10 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS PROHIBITIVELY DRY IN
THE LOWER LEVELS...CORROBORATED BY AVAILABLE SATELLITE BASED
SOUNDINGS. VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATIONS IN COMBINATION WITH ISLAND
BASED WEBCAMS DESCRIBE ONLY THIN CUMULUS LINES WITH VERY LITTLE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THUS...NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1945...THE DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO
TIED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST DURING
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81 89 80 89 / 10 20 30 40
MARATHON  79 90 79 90 / 10 20 30 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE....CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.............CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 301447
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1047 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

An upper level ridge is moving in from the west today. At the sfc
low pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area by
this afternoon. Drier air will move in from the northwest today. The
northwestern part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the
late afternoon hours. Elsewhere cloud cover could persist until
after sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low to
mid 80s. The lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with
highs this afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...

Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR to IFR cigs across
the region. Although the IFR cigs are expected to become MVFR by
late morning to early afternoon, it may take until the mid to late
afternoon for VFR conditions to return to most of the area.

&&

.Hydrology...

No flooding concerns since river levels are low and little to no
rain is expected all week.

&&

.Prev Discussion [236 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will mean
drier conditions through Wednesday night. By Thursday, however,
chances for thunderstorms will be on an increase, particularly in
our western zones. An upper level +PV anomaly will deepen the upper
level trough over the Rockies. With enhanced divergence aloft, a
surface low and associated cold front is forecast to develop over
the central Plains and head eastward. This will increase chances for
thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and over
our western zones. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s in
our northern counties to around 70 along the coastline. Highs will
be in the upper 80s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


.Marine...
Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light through the
work week. After a frontal passage this weekend, winds will increase
and approach cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  69  89  70  89 /  10  10  20  10  30
Panama City   85  71  87  73  87 /  10  10  10  10  40
Dothan        84  66  88  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  30
Albany        83  66  89  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      83  67  88  67  88 /  20  10  20  10  20
Cross City    85  69  88  68  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  83  72  86  73  85 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT






000
FXUS62 KTAE 301447
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1047 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

An upper level ridge is moving in from the west today. At the sfc
low pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area by
this afternoon. Drier air will move in from the northwest today. The
northwestern part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the
late afternoon hours. Elsewhere cloud cover could persist until
after sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low to
mid 80s. The lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with
highs this afternoon.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...

Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR to IFR cigs across
the region. Although the IFR cigs are expected to become MVFR by
late morning to early afternoon, it may take until the mid to late
afternoon for VFR conditions to return to most of the area.

&&

.Hydrology...

No flooding concerns since river levels are low and little to no
rain is expected all week.

&&

.Prev Discussion [236 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will mean
drier conditions through Wednesday night. By Thursday, however,
chances for thunderstorms will be on an increase, particularly in
our western zones. An upper level +PV anomaly will deepen the upper
level trough over the Rockies. With enhanced divergence aloft, a
surface low and associated cold front is forecast to develop over
the central Plains and head eastward. This will increase chances for
thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and over
our western zones. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s in
our northern counties to around 70 along the coastline. Highs will
be in the upper 80s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


.Marine...
Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light through the
work week. After a frontal passage this weekend, winds will increase
and approach cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  69  89  70  89 /  10  10  20  10  30
Panama City   85  71  87  73  87 /  10  10  10  10  40
Dothan        84  66  88  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  30
Albany        83  66  89  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      83  67  88  67  88 /  20  10  20  10  20
Cross City    85  69  88  68  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  83  72  86  73  85 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT







000
FXUS62 KKEY 301420
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE
AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
CONSTANT THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN 2000 FEET AND
12000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE 12Z BALLOON
OBSERVATION INDICATES A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN GUIDANCE
PREDICTS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT MTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VIS WITHIN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...WHEREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL AT EYW. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1945...THE DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO
TIED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST DURING
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 301420
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE
AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
CONSTANT THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN 2000 FEET AND
12000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE 12Z BALLOON
OBSERVATION INDICATES A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN GUIDANCE
PREDICTS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT MTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VIS WITHIN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...WHEREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL AT EYW. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1945...THE DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO
TIED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST DURING
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 301420
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE
AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
CONSTANT THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN 2000 FEET AND
12000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE 12Z BALLOON
OBSERVATION INDICATES A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN GUIDANCE
PREDICTS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT MTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VIS WITHIN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...WHEREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL AT EYW. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1945...THE DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO
TIED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST DURING
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 301420
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1020 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON)...
IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER SOUTH...IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST ABOVE ONE
AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
CONSTANT THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL DRY AIR BETWEEN 2000 FEET AND
12000 FEET SHOULD INHIBIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...
NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE 12Z BALLOON
OBSERVATION INDICATES A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN GUIDANCE
PREDICTS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT MTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VIS WITHIN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...WHEREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL AT EYW. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN 1945...THE DAILY
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69F WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS ALSO
TIED FOR THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN KEY WEST DURING
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................CLR
DATA ACQUISITION.....................FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KTBW 301419
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1019 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AND ARE PUSHING ONSHORE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE
STORMS DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE STORMS TODAY AS GROUNDS ARE SATURATED AND SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE NO
UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AND MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE
VCTS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 02Z...THEN LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND CLOSE TO STORMS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 301419
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1019 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AND ARE PUSHING ONSHORE IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE
STORMS DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW IS IN PLACE
ALONG WITH DEEP MOISTURE SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS AGAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THE STORMS TODAY AS GROUNDS ARE SATURATED AND SEVERAL
RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE NO
UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AND MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE
VCTS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 02Z...THEN LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT COASTAL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
HEAVY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER A TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS
AND REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND CLOSE TO STORMS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KMLB 301343
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...RADARS DETECTING SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO
EAST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COMING ASHORE BETWEEN TAMPA AND
CEDAR KEY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR MASS REACHING SOUTH TO ROUGHLY A CAPE CANAVERAL TO
SARASOTA LINE. THE 30/12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TALLAHASSEE AND
JACKSONVILLE SHOW A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ABOVE 500MB...TAMPA HEADING
THAT WAY WHILE MIAMI WAS STILL VERY WET THROUGH THE COLUMN. CLOSED
1007MB LOW ANALYZED EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. ASSOCIATED FRONT...BASED
ON BUOY OBS/TWC ANALYSIS...JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WHATEVER NORTHWEST TILT TO THE MID LEVEL/500MB FLOW THERE WAS
EARLIER FLATTENS DURING THE DAY PER LATEST RUC/GFS RUNS.

THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. MAIN PROBLEM LOOKS TO BE TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT OVER ALREADY VERY SOGGY/SATURATED LAND.

CURRENT 70 NORTH 60 SOUTH POP LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE VERY WET AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. LIKE MONDAY...LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING STORMS FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MID DAY AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TWD SRN BREVARD
COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPEC NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE MID LAYER FLOW ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY ARE THOSE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GENERALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PCT FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP 60 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST EVENING POPS FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO
THE ORLANDO AREA AND SE INTO BREVARD WHERE THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
OVER LAND BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WED-THU...THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY
ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPARK AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT INTO THU AND WITH PERIODIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL WARRANT CHANCE
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BOTH DAYS WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS REMAINS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO ANY
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TEMPO IFR KISM-KMLB NORTH. VFR TEMPO MVFR/IFR SOUTH OF
KISM-KMLB THIS MORNING AS STRATUS MOVES THROUGH. PREVAILING MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPO IFR IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NEARSHORE BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE BUOY 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WAS
RECORD SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALL THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING 2 TO
3 FOOT SEAS.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND AROUND 15 KNOTS
WELL OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
BUT NOT TO STRONG UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON
SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE REALISTIC THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS
TO SMALL CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT
ASTOR WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY...
MAY APPROACH OR REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK
HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT
CAMPBELL THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE
NEED FOR A SHORT FUSE FLOOD STATEMENT OR WARNING IN THIS AREA LATE
TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  50  30
MCO  87  72  89  73 /  70  50  50  30
MLB  87  73  87  74 /  70  50  50  30
VRB  88  72  88  74 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  87  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  30
SFB  87  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
FPR  88  72  88  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 301343
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...RADARS DETECTING SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO
EAST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COMING ASHORE BETWEEN TAMPA AND
CEDAR KEY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR MASS REACHING SOUTH TO ROUGHLY A CAPE CANAVERAL TO
SARASOTA LINE. THE 30/12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TALLAHASSEE AND
JACKSONVILLE SHOW A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ABOVE 500MB...TAMPA HEADING
THAT WAY WHILE MIAMI WAS STILL VERY WET THROUGH THE COLUMN. CLOSED
1007MB LOW ANALYZED EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. ASSOCIATED FRONT...BASED
ON BUOY OBS/TWC ANALYSIS...JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WHATEVER NORTHWEST TILT TO THE MID LEVEL/500MB FLOW THERE WAS
EARLIER FLATTENS DURING THE DAY PER LATEST RUC/GFS RUNS.

THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. MAIN PROBLEM LOOKS TO BE TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT OVER ALREADY VERY SOGGY/SATURATED LAND.

CURRENT 70 NORTH 60 SOUTH POP LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE VERY WET AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. LIKE MONDAY...LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING STORMS FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MID DAY AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TWD SRN BREVARD
COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPEC NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE MID LAYER FLOW ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY ARE THOSE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GENERALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PCT FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP 60 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST EVENING POPS FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO
THE ORLANDO AREA AND SE INTO BREVARD WHERE THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
OVER LAND BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WED-THU...THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY
ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPARK AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT INTO THU AND WITH PERIODIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL WARRANT CHANCE
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BOTH DAYS WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS REMAINS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO ANY
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TEMPO IFR KISM-KMLB NORTH. VFR TEMPO MVFR/IFR SOUTH OF
KISM-KMLB THIS MORNING AS STRATUS MOVES THROUGH. PREVAILING MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPO IFR IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NEARSHORE BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE BUOY 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WAS
RECORD SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALL THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING 2 TO
3 FOOT SEAS.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND AROUND 15 KNOTS
WELL OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
BUT NOT TO STRONG UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON
SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE REALISTIC THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS
TO SMALL CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT
ASTOR WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY...
MAY APPROACH OR REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK
HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT
CAMPBELL THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE
NEED FOR A SHORT FUSE FLOOD STATEMENT OR WARNING IN THIS AREA LATE
TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  50  30
MCO  87  72  89  73 /  70  50  50  30
MLB  87  73  87  74 /  70  50  50  30
VRB  88  72  88  74 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  87  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  30
SFB  87  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
FPR  88  72  88  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 301343
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...RADARS DETECTING SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO
EAST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COMING ASHORE BETWEEN TAMPA AND
CEDAR KEY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR MASS REACHING SOUTH TO ROUGHLY A CAPE CANAVERAL TO
SARASOTA LINE. THE 30/12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TALLAHASSEE AND
JACKSONVILLE SHOW A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ABOVE 500MB...TAMPA HEADING
THAT WAY WHILE MIAMI WAS STILL VERY WET THROUGH THE COLUMN. CLOSED
1007MB LOW ANALYZED EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. ASSOCIATED FRONT...BASED
ON BUOY OBS/TWC ANALYSIS...JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WHATEVER NORTHWEST TILT TO THE MID LEVEL/500MB FLOW THERE WAS
EARLIER FLATTENS DURING THE DAY PER LATEST RUC/GFS RUNS.

THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. MAIN PROBLEM LOOKS TO BE TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT OVER ALREADY VERY SOGGY/SATURATED LAND.

CURRENT 70 NORTH 60 SOUTH POP LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE VERY WET AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. LIKE MONDAY...LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING STORMS FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MID DAY AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TWD SRN BREVARD
COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPEC NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE MID LAYER FLOW ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY ARE THOSE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GENERALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PCT FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP 60 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST EVENING POPS FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO
THE ORLANDO AREA AND SE INTO BREVARD WHERE THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
OVER LAND BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WED-THU...THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY
ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPARK AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT INTO THU AND WITH PERIODIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL WARRANT CHANCE
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BOTH DAYS WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS REMAINS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO ANY
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TEMPO IFR KISM-KMLB NORTH. VFR TEMPO MVFR/IFR SOUTH OF
KISM-KMLB THIS MORNING AS STRATUS MOVES THROUGH. PREVAILING MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPO IFR IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NEARSHORE BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE BUOY 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WAS
RECORD SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALL THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING 2 TO
3 FOOT SEAS.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND AROUND 15 KNOTS
WELL OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
BUT NOT TO STRONG UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON
SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE REALISTIC THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS
TO SMALL CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT
ASTOR WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY...
MAY APPROACH OR REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK
HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT
CAMPBELL THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE
NEED FOR A SHORT FUSE FLOOD STATEMENT OR WARNING IN THIS AREA LATE
TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  50  30
MCO  87  72  89  73 /  70  50  50  30
MLB  87  73  87  74 /  70  50  50  30
VRB  88  72  88  74 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  87  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  30
SFB  87  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
FPR  88  72  88  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 301343
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
943 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...RADARS DETECTING SHOWERS MOVING WEST TO
EAST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COMING ASHORE BETWEEN TAMPA AND
CEDAR KEY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRIER MID AND UPPER
LEVEL AIR MASS REACHING SOUTH TO ROUGHLY A CAPE CANAVERAL TO
SARASOTA LINE. THE 30/12Z SOUNDINGS FROM TALLAHASSEE AND
JACKSONVILLE SHOW A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS ABOVE 500MB...TAMPA HEADING
THAT WAY WHILE MIAMI WAS STILL VERY WET THROUGH THE COLUMN. CLOSED
1007MB LOW ANALYZED EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. ASSOCIATED FRONT...BASED
ON BUOY OBS/TWC ANALYSIS...JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

WHATEVER NORTHWEST TILT TO THE MID LEVEL/500MB FLOW THERE WAS
EARLIER FLATTENS DURING THE DAY PER LATEST RUC/GFS RUNS.

THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS THE FLOW ALOFT
FLATTENS. MAIN PROBLEM LOOKS TO BE TRAINING SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT OVER ALREADY VERY SOGGY/SATURATED LAND.

CURRENT 70 NORTH 60 SOUTH POP LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THE VERY WET AIR MASS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY. LIKE MONDAY...LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING STORMS FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA A GOOD BET.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MID DAY AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TWD SRN BREVARD
COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPEC NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE MID LAYER FLOW ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY ARE THOSE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GENERALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PCT FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP 60 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST EVENING POPS FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO
THE ORLANDO AREA AND SE INTO BREVARD WHERE THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
OVER LAND BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WED-THU...THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY
ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPARK AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT INTO THU AND WITH PERIODIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL WARRANT CHANCE
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BOTH DAYS WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS REMAINS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO ANY
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR TEMPO IFR KISM-KMLB NORTH. VFR TEMPO MVFR/IFR SOUTH OF
KISM-KMLB THIS MORNING AS STRATUS MOVES THROUGH. PREVAILING MVFR
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPO IFR IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA THROUGH SUNSET.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...NEARSHORE BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE BUOY 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH WAS
RECORD SOUTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS. ALL THE BUOYS WERE RECORDING 2 TO
3 FOOT SEAS.

SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND AROUND 15 KNOTS
WELL OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS
REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE MARINE FORECAST UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
BUT NOT TO STRONG UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON
SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE REALISTIC THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS
TO SMALL CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT
ASTOR WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY...
MAY APPROACH OR REACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK
HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT
CAMPBELL THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE
NEED FOR A SHORT FUSE FLOOD STATEMENT OR WARNING IN THIS AREA LATE
TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN DEVELOP OVER THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  50  30
MCO  87  72  89  73 /  70  50  50  30
MLB  87  73  87  74 /  70  50  50  30
VRB  88  72  88  74 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  87  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  30
SFB  87  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
FPR  88  72  88  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$
IMPACT WX...LASCODY
HYDRO.......GLITTO
FORECASTS...WIMMER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 301322
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW IS OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM IT. CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY IS
NEAR A LINE FROM SGJ TO GNV. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. THEREFORE...MAINTAINING THE FLOOD WATCH. IN
ADDITION...ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW ITSELF WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BANDS OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST.

DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...

DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS APPARENT IN THE MORNING SOUNDING...AND
LITTLE ERODING OF THE STRATUS IS TAKING PLACE. HAVE UPDATED
TERMINAL FORECASTS TO CONTINUE LOW STRATUS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO MIX OUT THIS LAYER.

&&

.MARINE...

AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND A DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT
IN ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THEREFORE AN
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  66  87  68 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  80  71  82  71 /  40  10  10  10
JAX  82  69  85  70 /  40  20  20  20
SGJ  81  72  84  72 /  50  30  40  30
GNV  83  69  86  68 /  50  30  50  40
OCF  84  70  87  70 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER-MARION-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KJAX 301322
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW IS OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM IT. CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY IS
NEAR A LINE FROM SGJ TO GNV. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. THEREFORE...MAINTAINING THE FLOOD WATCH. IN
ADDITION...ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW ITSELF WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BANDS OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST.

DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...

DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS APPARENT IN THE MORNING SOUNDING...AND
LITTLE ERODING OF THE STRATUS IS TAKING PLACE. HAVE UPDATED
TERMINAL FORECASTS TO CONTINUE LOW STRATUS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO MIX OUT THIS LAYER.

&&

.MARINE...

AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND A DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT
IN ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THEREFORE AN
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  66  87  68 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  80  71  82  71 /  40  10  10  10
JAX  82  69  85  70 /  40  20  20  20
SGJ  81  72  84  72 /  50  30  40  30
GNV  83  69  86  68 /  50  30  50  40
OCF  84  70  87  70 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER-MARION-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KJAX 301322
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW IS OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM IT. CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY IS
NEAR A LINE FROM SGJ TO GNV. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. THEREFORE...MAINTAINING THE FLOOD WATCH. IN
ADDITION...ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW ITSELF WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BANDS OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST.

DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...

DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS APPARENT IN THE MORNING SOUNDING...AND
LITTLE ERODING OF THE STRATUS IS TAKING PLACE. HAVE UPDATED
TERMINAL FORECASTS TO CONTINUE LOW STRATUS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO MIX OUT THIS LAYER.

&&

.MARINE...

AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND A DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT
IN ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THEREFORE AN
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  66  87  68 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  80  71  82  71 /  40  10  10  10
JAX  82  69  85  70 /  40  20  20  20
SGJ  81  72  84  72 /  50  30  40  30
GNV  83  69  86  68 /  50  30  50  40
OCF  84  70  87  70 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER-MARION-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KJAX 301322
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
922 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...

LOW IS OFF THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM IT. CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY IS
NEAR A LINE FROM SGJ TO GNV. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/STORMS. THEREFORE...MAINTAINING THE FLOOD WATCH. IN
ADDITION...ENERGY PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW ITSELF WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING BANDS OF SHOWERS TO THE COAST.

DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...SO ADJUSTMENTS TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND LOWER MAX TEMPS WILL BE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...

DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS APPARENT IN THE MORNING SOUNDING...AND
LITTLE ERODING OF THE STRATUS IS TAKING PLACE. HAVE UPDATED
TERMINAL FORECASTS TO CONTINUE LOW STRATUS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHEN
DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO MIX OUT THIS LAYER.

&&

.MARINE...

AN INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND A DEPARTING LOW WILL RESULT
IN ENHANCED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. THEREFORE AN
EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  66  87  68 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  80  71  82  71 /  40  10  10  10
JAX  82  69  85  70 /  40  20  20  20
SGJ  81  72  84  72 /  50  30  40  30
GNV  83  69  86  68 /  50  30  50  40
OCF  84  70  87  70 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER-MARION-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KMFL 301245
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE RAINFALL
CHANCES WERE INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE
LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS...WHICH INDICATES
THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE WILL FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH IS IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 14Z AND 23Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AMDAR
DATA SHOWS THIS HAPPENING WITH PALM BEACH WINDS NEAR 15 KT A FEW
THOUSAND FEET UP. THIS INCREASED FLOW LIKELY WILL PREVENT AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELY
POPS PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLENDS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE GFS MOS POPS. TSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE PALM BEACHES...IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE TSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TSTORMS. LIGHTNING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. TSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE MOVE WITH THE FASTER STEERING FLOW, LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CARIB INTO SOUTH FL
WED-FRI. AS WIND FLOW LIGHTENS, WE RETURN TO A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
REGIME ON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. TSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO DUE TO A CONTINUED
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHTER. SO WITH LIGHTER STEERING
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN TYPICAL
SOUTH FL FASHION.

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY!
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS,
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE
SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR OUR AREA, THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL LIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO ONLY AROUND 5 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL ON SATURDAY...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING A TAD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN RESPONSE. THIS FRONT
COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY...OR BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT, BUT SINCE
IT WILL BE LOOSING ITS PUNCH, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY, THOUGH HIGHER SURF WOULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
PALM BEACHES SUN-MON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  88  75 /  80  20  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  89  77 /  70  20  60  30
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  60  10  60  20
NAPLES           87  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG



000
FXUS62 KMFL 301245
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE RAINFALL
CHANCES WERE INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE
LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS...WHICH INDICATES
THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE WILL FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH IS IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 14Z AND 23Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AMDAR
DATA SHOWS THIS HAPPENING WITH PALM BEACH WINDS NEAR 15 KT A FEW
THOUSAND FEET UP. THIS INCREASED FLOW LIKELY WILL PREVENT AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELY
POPS PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLENDS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE GFS MOS POPS. TSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE PALM BEACHES...IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE TSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TSTORMS. LIGHTNING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. TSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE MOVE WITH THE FASTER STEERING FLOW, LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CARIB INTO SOUTH FL
WED-FRI. AS WIND FLOW LIGHTENS, WE RETURN TO A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
REGIME ON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. TSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO DUE TO A CONTINUED
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHTER. SO WITH LIGHTER STEERING
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN TYPICAL
SOUTH FL FASHION.

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY!
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS,
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE
SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR OUR AREA, THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL LIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO ONLY AROUND 5 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL ON SATURDAY...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING A TAD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN RESPONSE. THIS FRONT
COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY...OR BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT, BUT SINCE
IT WILL BE LOOSING ITS PUNCH, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY, THOUGH HIGHER SURF WOULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
PALM BEACHES SUN-MON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  88  75 /  80  20  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  89  77 /  70  20  60  30
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  60  10  60  20
NAPLES           87  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301148
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH IS IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 14Z AND 23Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AMDAR
DATA SHOWS THIS HAPPENING WITH PALM BEACH WINDS NEAR 15 KT A FEW
THOUSAND FEET UP. THIS INCREASED FLOW LIKELY WILL PREVENT AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELY
POPS PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLENDS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE GFS MOS POPS. TSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE PALM BEACHES...IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE TSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TSTORMS. LIGHTNING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. TSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE MOVE WITH THE FASTER STEERING FLOW, LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CARIB INTO SOUTH FL
WED-FRI. AS WIND FLOW LIGHTENS, WE RETURN TO A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
REGIME ON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. TSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO DUE TO A CONTINUED
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHTER. SO WITH LIGHTER STEERING
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN TYPICAL
SOUTH FL FASHION.

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY!
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS,
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE
SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR OUR AREA, THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL LIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO ONLY AROUND 5 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL ON SATURDAY...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING A TAD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN RESPONSE. THIS FRONT
COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY...OR BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT, BUT SINCE
IT WILL BE LOOSING ITS PUNCH, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY, THOUGH HIGHER SURF WOULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
PALM BEACHES SUN-MON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  88  75 /  50  20  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  89  77 /  50  20  60  30
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  40  10  60  20
NAPLES           87  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KKEY 301138 AAA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
738 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES WOULD FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EARLY DATA FROM THE
12Z BALLOON OBSERVATION INDICATES A MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE THAN
GUIDANCE PREDICTS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT MTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCED VIS WITHIN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...WHEREAS VFR WILL PREVAIL AT EYW. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...CLR

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 300811
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
WET PATTERN CONTINUES AS A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERS OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST AND INLAND
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WAKE UP TO SOME FOG...THOUGH IT SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

00Z TBW SOUNDING AND 00Z TLH SOUNDING BOTH HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
KEEP DECENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCAL GUIDANCE RESOLVING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN...SOME ALREADY
IS OFFSHORE IN THE GULF AND MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS HOUR ACCORDING
TO RADAR. COVERAGE SHOULD FILL IN AS THE DAY CONTINUES WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA.

ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN A BIT AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONABLE...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S. SOME AREAS OF THE
NATURE COAST COULD SEE GLIMPSES OF FALL WITH TEMPERATURES SNEAKING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND THE SUPPORT AT THE UPPER LEVELS MOVES
ON...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY FLOW SEA
BREEZE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ASHORE OR DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST BEFORE INCREASING INLAND THANKS TO PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME SOGGY AREAS A TAD
DRIER AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD
WARMER...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TIMING FOR A LOCATION.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (PW`S IN THE 1.8 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE) WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED (POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

ON FRIDAY WEAK MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL AS
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED RANGE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION.

DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
COOLER DRIER FALL LIKE AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN
GULF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE ALONG PREVIOUS MODEL RUN TRENDS
SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH A BLEND OF MODELS BEING USED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WILL FALL BACK TO OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT LAL THIS MORNING...THOUGH
SOME OTHER TERMINALS COULD SEE BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR THIS MORNING DUE
TO LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
CONTINUES. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TODAY...WITH SOME
VARIABLE GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK THANKS TO RECENT AND
EXPECTED WETTING RAINS. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG COULD BE AN
ISSUE IN FOG-PRONE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
DAY OF RAINS COULD KEEP THEM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DRIER WEATHER HELPS GIVE THE AREA A BREAK
FROM THE RAIN LONG ENOUGH TO LET THE RIVERS GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT TODAY AS
STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...AROUND 15 KNOTS...THOUGH TRAINING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A SATURATED AREA COULD CREATE SOME
NUISANCE FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  75  88  76 /  60  30  50  20
FMY  89  75  90  75 /  50  30  40  20
GIF  88  73  90  74 /  70  30  70  30
SRQ  86  75  88  76 /  60  30  50  20
BKV  87  70  89  70 /  60  30  60  20
SPG  86  77  87  78 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL





000
FXUS62 KTBW 300811
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
411 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
WET PATTERN CONTINUES AS A STALLED FRONTAL SYSTEM LINGERS OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST AND INLAND
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO WAKE UP TO SOME FOG...THOUGH IT SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

00Z TBW SOUNDING AND 00Z TLH SOUNDING BOTH HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
DRIER AIR TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
KEEP DECENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH LOCAL GUIDANCE RESOLVING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BELIEVE THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO FIRE AGAIN...SOME ALREADY
IS OFFSHORE IN THE GULF AND MOVING ONSHORE AT THIS HOUR ACCORDING
TO RADAR. COVERAGE SHOULD FILL IN AS THE DAY CONTINUES WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER HOLDING TEMPERATURES BELOW 90 DEGREES
ACROSS THE AREA.

ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN A BIT AFTER SUNSET...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SLIGHTLY BETTER ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT THANKS TO A LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONABLE...WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 70S. SOME AREAS OF THE
NATURE COAST COULD SEE GLIMPSES OF FALL WITH TEMPERATURES SNEAKING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS AND THE SUPPORT AT THE UPPER LEVELS MOVES
ON...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY FLOW SEA
BREEZE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ASHORE OR DEVELOPING
ALONG THE COAST BEFORE INCREASING INLAND THANKS TO PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP SOME SOGGY AREAS A TAD
DRIER AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD
WARMER...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TIMING FOR A LOCATION.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE (PW`S IN THE 1.8 TO
1.9 INCH RANGE) WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED (POPS 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ALBEIT LIGHT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND TO
THE EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

ON FRIDAY WEAK MID LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL AS
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
AGAIN LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT FAVORING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER INLAND
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THEN THROUGH WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS NEXT FRONT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED RANGE (30 TO 50 PERCENT) AS THE FRONT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION.

DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A
COOLER DRIER FALL LIKE AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION ON A BREEZY
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND NORTHERN
GULF. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE ALONG PREVIOUS MODEL RUN TRENDS
SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH A BLEND OF MODELS BEING USED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN WILL FALL BACK TO OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE COOLER DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS AT LAL THIS MORNING...THOUGH
SOME OTHER TERMINALS COULD SEE BRIEF BOUTS OF MVFR THIS MORNING DUE
TO LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE AFTER
SUNRISE...THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY
CONTINUES. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST TODAY...WITH SOME
VARIABLE GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AROUND CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK THANKS TO RECENT AND
EXPECTED WETTING RAINS. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING FOG COULD BE AN
ISSUE IN FOG-PRONE AREAS THAT SEE RAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
DAY OF RAINS COULD KEEP THEM ABOVE FLOOD STAGE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DRIER WEATHER HELPS GIVE THE AREA A BREAK
FROM THE RAIN LONG ENOUGH TO LET THE RIVERS GO BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OF A FLOOD THREAT TODAY AS
STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...AROUND 15 KNOTS...THOUGH TRAINING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER A SATURATED AREA COULD CREATE SOME
NUISANCE FLOODING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  75  88  76 /  60  30  50  20
FMY  89  75  90  75 /  50  30  40  20
GIF  88  73  90  74 /  70  30  70  30
SRQ  86  75  88  76 /  60  30  50  20
BKV  87  70  89  70 /  60  30  60  20
SPG  86  77  87  78 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...02/GARCIA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KJAX 300743
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY/TONIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE SE GA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR NUDGES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR A ST AUGUSTINE TO
GAINESVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE THE FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND HAVE
ALSO EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW SPOTS
MAY RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY
MORE THAN SATURATED GROUNDS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF A FEW LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST OF MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...
FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT AND SHOULD
ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL.
THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM. WILL USE
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NE FL...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST OF SE GA WILL
REMAIN PRECIP FREE AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK IN FROM THE
NE. HIGHS WED WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR INLAND TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S COAST.

THU...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NUDGES FURTHER SOUTHWARD...AND OW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AT THE MID
LEVELS CROSSES THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR NE FL...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE GA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE FALL WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW ON FRIDAY...ENTERING SE GA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CROSSING
NE FL SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NW TO SE ON FRIDAY.
WITH CHANCES AREA WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY AS
THE FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY...THE FIRST INTRUSION OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL. HAVE ACCELERATED THE PRECIP DECREASE
WITH MOST AREAS DRY BY SATURDAY EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AREA WIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND...WITH 60S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILING IFR
CIGS AND AT ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z-17Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR CIGS BY 18Z-20Z. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE VCSH AT THE TERMINALS THRU 15Z AND
AT VQQ AND GNV FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A VCTS OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS
MAY BE NEEDED AT GNV AFT 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE SE GA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TODAY AND BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY FOR THE FLORIDA WATERS. A PERIOD OF
ONSHORE WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

RIP CURRENTS: NNE SURGE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF ONSHORE WINDS AND GROUNDSWELL WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
RISK THU MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  80  71  82  71 /  40  10  10  10
JAX  82  69  85  70 /  40  20  20  20
SGJ  81  72  84  72 /  60  30  40  30
GNV  83  69  86  68 /  50  30  50  40
OCF  84  70  87  70 /  60  30  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER-MARION-PUTNAM-ST
     JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA











000
FXUS62 KJAX 300743
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
343 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY/TONIGHT...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE SE GA COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR NUDGES A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TO NEAR A ST AUGUSTINE TO
GAINESVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL RIDE THE FRONT WHICH WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVE. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND HAVE
ALSO EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHILE WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW SPOTS
MAY RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON ALREADY
MORE THAN SATURATED GROUNDS WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF A FEW LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST OF MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN GUIDANCE DUE TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...
FEEL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW TEMPS TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT AND SHOULD
ALSO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN/CENTRAL FL.
THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
SOME THREAT OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TSTM. WILL USE
CHANCE POPS ACROSS NE FL...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA CLOSEST TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST OF SE GA WILL
REMAIN PRECIP FREE AS DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK IN FROM THE
NE. HIGHS WED WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S FAR INLAND TO THE
LOWER/MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 70S COAST.

THU...PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE AS THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NUDGES FURTHER SOUTHWARD...AND OW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AT THE MID
LEVELS CROSSES THE AREA. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR NE FL...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE GA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE FALL WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NW ON FRIDAY...ENTERING SE GA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND CROSSING
NE FL SATURDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NW TO SE ON FRIDAY.
WITH CHANCES AREA WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN DECREASING SATURDAY AS
THE FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY...THE FIRST INTRUSION OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL PREVAIL. HAVE ACCELERATED THE PRECIP DECREASE
WITH MOST AREAS DRY BY SATURDAY EVENING...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AREA WIDE BY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 INLAND...WITH 60S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND GRADUALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE PREVAILING IFR
CIGS AND AT ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z-17Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR CIGS BY 18Z-20Z. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TO SOUTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS. HAVE VCSH AT THE TERMINALS THRU 15Z AND
AT VQQ AND GNV FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A VCTS OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR TS
MAY BE NEEDED AT GNV AFT 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE SE GA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST TODAY AND BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY FOR THE FLORIDA WATERS. A PERIOD OF
ONSHORE WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM WED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

RIP CURRENTS: NNE SURGE BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF ONSHORE WINDS AND GROUNDSWELL WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
RISK THU MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  66  87  68 /  10  10  10  10
SSI  80  71  82  71 /  40  10  10  10
JAX  82  69  85  70 /  40  20  20  20
SGJ  81  72  84  72 /  60  30  40  30
GNV  83  69  86  68 /  50  30  50  40
OCF  84  70  87  70 /  60  30  60  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLAGLER-MARION-PUTNAM-ST
     JOHNS.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA












000
FXUS62 KMFL 300738
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AMDAR
DATA SHOWS THIS HAPPENING WITH PALM BEACH WINDS NEAR 15 KT A FEW
THOUSAND FEET UP. THIS INCREASED FLOW LIKELY WILL PREVENT AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELY
POPS PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLENDS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE GFS MOS POPS. TSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE PALM BEACHES...IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE TSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TSTORMS. LIGHTNING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. TSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE MOVE WITH THE FASTER STEERING FLOW, LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CARIB INTO SOUTH FL
WED-FRI. AS WIND FLOW LIGHTENS, WE RETURN TO A DIURNALCONVECTIVE
REGIME ON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. TSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO DUE TO A CONTINUED
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHTER. SO WITH LIGHTER STEERING
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN TYPICAL
SOUTH FL FASHION.

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY!
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS,
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE
SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR OUR AREA, THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL LIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO ONLY AROUND 5 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL ON SATURDAY...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING A TAD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN RESPONSE. THIS FRONT
COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY...OR BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT, BUT SINCE
IT WILL BE LOOSING ITS PUNCH, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY, THOUGH HIGHER SURF WOULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
PALM BEACHES SUN-MON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  88  75 /  50  20  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  89  77 /  50  20  60  30
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  40  10  60  20
NAPLES           87  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300738
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AMDAR
DATA SHOWS THIS HAPPENING WITH PALM BEACH WINDS NEAR 15 KT A FEW
THOUSAND FEET UP. THIS INCREASED FLOW LIKELY WILL PREVENT AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELY
POPS PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLENDS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE GFS MOS POPS. TSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE PALM BEACHES...IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE TSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TSTORMS. LIGHTNING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. TSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE MOVE WITH THE FASTER STEERING FLOW, LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CARIB INTO SOUTH FL
WED-FRI. AS WIND FLOW LIGHTENS, WE RETURN TO A DIURNALCONVECTIVE
REGIME ON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. TSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO DUE TO A CONTINUED
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHTER. SO WITH LIGHTER STEERING
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN TYPICAL
SOUTH FL FASHION.

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY!
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS,
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE
SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR OUR AREA, THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL LIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO ONLY AROUND 5 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL ON SATURDAY...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING A TAD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN RESPONSE. THIS FRONT
COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY...OR BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT, BUT SINCE
IT WILL BE LOOSING ITS PUNCH, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY, THOUGH HIGHER SURF WOULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
PALM BEACHES SUN-MON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  88  75 /  50  20  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  89  77 /  50  20  60  30
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  40  10  60  20
NAPLES           87  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KKEY 300738
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM A FEW RECENT CELLS IN FLORIDA BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS...KBYX RADAR HAS SHOWN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF OUR
GULF MARINE ZONES THUS FAR INTO THE MORNING. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARYING IN DIRECTION AT THE AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SENSORS AT THIS
HOUR. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A MORE DEFINED AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOCAL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK AS THE AXIS OF BROAD HIGHER PRESSURE
IS SHUNTED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. IN GENERAL...WE
REMAIN MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE. BUT BLENDED IMAGERY OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALIGNED
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. STILL...WE MAY SEE A REVERSE CLOUD LINE LATER
TODAY THANKS TO THE SLIGHTLY VEER PROFILE OF THE WEAK WINDS. BUT WITH
LITTLE OTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM...TRIMMED OUR PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE LOCAL PROFILE REMAINS QUITE LIGHT THROUGH A DEEP PORTION OF THE
TROPOSPHERE AS A FEW SHORT WAVES REMAIN SHUNTED NORTH OF THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEK...AND A MORE BROAD TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BY THIS WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. AND THERE WERE ONLY VERY MINOR
GRIDDED TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS UPCOMING FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL
WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALIZED CLOUD BASES AROUND 023 DUE TO REVERSE CLOUD LINES
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING...WITH VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 20Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1945...THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST FELL TO 69 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. THIS ALSO TIED FOR THE COOLEST MINIMUM EVER IN
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  89  80  89  80 / 20 20 30 30
MARATHON  89  79  89  80 / 20 20 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 300738
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AMDAR
DATA SHOWS THIS HAPPENING WITH PALM BEACH WINDS NEAR 15 KT A FEW
THOUSAND FEET UP. THIS INCREASED FLOW LIKELY WILL PREVENT AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELY
POPS PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLENDS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE GFS MOS POPS. TSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE PALM BEACHES...IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE TSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TSTORMS. LIGHTNING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. TSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE MOVE WITH THE FASTER STEERING FLOW, LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CARIB INTO SOUTH FL
WED-FRI. AS WIND FLOW LIGHTENS, WE RETURN TO A DIURNALCONVECTIVE
REGIME ON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. TSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO DUE TO A CONTINUED
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHTER. SO WITH LIGHTER STEERING
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN TYPICAL
SOUTH FL FASHION.

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY!
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS,
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE
SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR OUR AREA, THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL LIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO ONLY AROUND 5 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL ON SATURDAY...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING A TAD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN RESPONSE. THIS FRONT
COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY...OR BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT, BUT SINCE
IT WILL BE LOOSING ITS PUNCH, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY, THOUGH HIGHER SURF WOULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
PALM BEACHES SUN-MON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  88  75 /  50  20  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  89  77 /  50  20  60  30
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  40  10  60  20
NAPLES           87  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KKEY 300738
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM A FEW RECENT CELLS IN FLORIDA BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS...KBYX RADAR HAS SHOWN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF OUR
GULF MARINE ZONES THUS FAR INTO THE MORNING. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARYING IN DIRECTION AT THE AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SENSORS AT THIS
HOUR. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A MORE DEFINED AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOCAL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK AS THE AXIS OF BROAD HIGHER PRESSURE
IS SHUNTED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. IN GENERAL...WE
REMAIN MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE. BUT BLENDED IMAGERY OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALIGNED
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. STILL...WE MAY SEE A REVERSE CLOUD LINE LATER
TODAY THANKS TO THE SLIGHTLY VEER PROFILE OF THE WEAK WINDS. BUT WITH
LITTLE OTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM...TRIMMED OUR PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE LOCAL PROFILE REMAINS QUITE LIGHT THROUGH A DEEP PORTION OF THE
TROPOSPHERE AS A FEW SHORT WAVES REMAIN SHUNTED NORTH OF THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEK...AND A MORE BROAD TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BY THIS WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. AND THERE WERE ONLY VERY MINOR
GRIDDED TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS UPCOMING FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL
WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALIZED CLOUD BASES AROUND 023 DUE TO REVERSE CLOUD LINES
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING...WITH VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 20Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1945...THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST FELL TO 69 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. THIS ALSO TIED FOR THE COOLEST MINIMUM EVER IN
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  89  80  89  80 / 20 20 30 30
MARATHON  89  79  89  80 / 20 20 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300738
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ASIDE FROM A FEW RECENT CELLS IN FLORIDA BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS...KBYX RADAR HAS SHOWN THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF OUR
GULF MARINE ZONES THUS FAR INTO THE MORNING. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARYING IN DIRECTION AT THE AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SENSORS AT THIS
HOUR. UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPERATURES ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A MORE DEFINED AREA OF LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE LOCAL
PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK AS THE AXIS OF BROAD HIGHER PRESSURE
IS SHUNTED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VARIABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. IN GENERAL...WE
REMAIN MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE. BUT BLENDED IMAGERY OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOWS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALIGNED
JUST TO OUR SOUTH. STILL...WE MAY SEE A REVERSE CLOUD LINE LATER
TODAY THANKS TO THE SLIGHTLY VEER PROFILE OF THE WEAK WINDS. BUT WITH
LITTLE OTHER FOCUSING MECHANISM...TRIMMED OUR PROBABILITY OF
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION DOWN TO A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SHORT TERM.

THE LOCAL PROFILE REMAINS QUITE LIGHT THROUGH A DEEP PORTION OF THE
TROPOSPHERE AS A FEW SHORT WAVES REMAIN SHUNTED NORTH OF THE KEYS
THROUGH THE WEEK...AND A MORE BROAD TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
BY THIS WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. AND THERE WERE ONLY VERY MINOR
GRIDDED TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS UPCOMING FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS ALL
WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THIS ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND
TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
LOCALIZED CLOUD BASES AROUND 023 DUE TO REVERSE CLOUD LINES
DEVELOPING IN THE MORNING...WITH VICINITY SHOWERS AFTER 20Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1945...THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST FELL TO 69 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. THIS ALSO TIED FOR THE COOLEST MINIMUM EVER IN
THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK
TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  89  80  89  80 / 20 20 30 30
MARATHON  89  79  89  80 / 20 20 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 300716
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MID DAY AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TWD SRN BREVARD
COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPEC NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE MID LAYER FLOW ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY ARE THOSE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GENERALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PCT FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP 60 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST EVENING POPS FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO
THE ORLANDO AREA AND SE INTO BREVARD WHERE THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
OVER LAND BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WED-THU...THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY
ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPARK AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT INTO THU AND WITH PERIODIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL WARRANT CHANCE
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BOTH DAYS WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS REMAINS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO ANY
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
BUT NOT TO STRONG UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON
SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE REALISTIC THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS
TO SMALL CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY. THESE TWO
SITES MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK HAS
ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT 3 AM
AT CAMPBELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A
SHORT FUSE FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOP IN THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  50  30
MCO  87  72  89  73 /  70  50  50  30
MLB  87  73  87  74 /  70  50  50  30
VRB  88  72  88  74 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  87  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  30
SFB  87  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
FPR  88  72  88  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMLB 300716
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MID DAY AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TWD SRN BREVARD
COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPEC NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE MID LAYER FLOW ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY ARE THOSE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GENERALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PCT FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP 60 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST EVENING POPS FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO
THE ORLANDO AREA AND SE INTO BREVARD WHERE THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
OVER LAND BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WED-THU...THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY
ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPARK AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT INTO THU AND WITH PERIODIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL WARRANT CHANCE
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BOTH DAYS WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS REMAINS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO ANY
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
BUT NOT TO STRONG UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON
SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE REALISTIC THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS
TO SMALL CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY. THESE TWO
SITES MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK HAS
ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT 3 AM
AT CAMPBELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A
SHORT FUSE FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOP IN THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  50  30
MCO  87  72  89  73 /  70  50  50  30
MLB  87  73  87  74 /  70  50  50  30
VRB  88  72  88  74 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  87  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  30
SFB  87  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
FPR  88  72  88  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMLB 300716
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MID DAY AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TWD SRN BREVARD
COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPEC NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE MID LAYER FLOW ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY ARE THOSE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GENERALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PCT FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP 60 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST EVENING POPS FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO
THE ORLANDO AREA AND SE INTO BREVARD WHERE THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
OVER LAND BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WED-THU...THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY
ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPARK AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT INTO THU AND WITH PERIODIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL WARRANT CHANCE
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BOTH DAYS WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS REMAINS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO ANY
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
BUT NOT TO STRONG UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON
SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE REALISTIC THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS
TO SMALL CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY. THESE TWO
SITES MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK HAS
ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT 3 AM
AT CAMPBELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A
SHORT FUSE FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOP IN THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  50  30
MCO  87  72  89  73 /  70  50  50  30
MLB  87  73  87  74 /  70  50  50  30
VRB  88  72  88  74 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  87  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  30
SFB  87  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
FPR  88  72  88  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMLB 300716
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

TODAY...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES INTO MID DAY AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TWD SRN BREVARD
COUNTY AND OSCEOLA COUNTY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND TWO INCHES. WEAKER IMPULSES ARE PROGGED IN THE
MID LVL WESTERLY FLOW BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT TO AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ESPEC NEAR THE APPROACHING LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONE CONCERN FOR
TODAY IS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY TRAIN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
THE MID LAYER FLOW ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING FRONT SLIDING
SOUTH. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THAT THE AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY
SEE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TODAY ARE THOSE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN
ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO...GENERALLY FROM OSCEOLA
AND BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD TO LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 70 PCT FROM OSCEOLA AND BREVARD
NORTHWARD AND WILL KEEP 60 PCT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S NORTH AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...WILL INDICATE HIGHEST EVENING POPS FROM LAKE COUNTY INTO
THE ORLANDO AREA AND SE INTO BREVARD WHERE THE LOW LVL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE
OVER LAND BUT MOST OF THE RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE ENDED. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 70S.

WED-THU...THE PREVIOUS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTH
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WED BUT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY
ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO SPARK AT LEAST A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
REMAINS ABUNDANT INTO THU AND WITH PERIODIC MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SHOULD STILL WARRANT CHANCE
WORDING FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWARD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK BOTH DAYS WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.
STEERING FLOW FOR CELLS REMAINS FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST SO ANY
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING COULD
WORK BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-MON...UPPER TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL HELP PUSH
ANOTHER FRONT INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATE ON FRI AND THEN THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. BY SUN THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND AGAIN ON FRI BUT THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW ON SAT WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BETWEEN A 40 AND 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
OF THESE DAYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR BOTH
SUN/MON. ANY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND (SUN) OR FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK (MON) WILL BE CONFINED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
AND SOUTHWARD...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
BE GREATEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY MORNING STRATUS WILL AFFECT NRN TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 12Z
WITH SOME IFR CIGS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SE TWD NRN TERMINALS BY
MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING WITH IT SHRA/TSRA CHCS AND
SW/W WINDS BECOMING NW/N BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND NE LATE FOR
KDAB/KLEE. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 16Z-23Z WITH
TEMPO SHRA FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE NRN WATERS TONIGHT
BUT NOT TO STRONG UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON WED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE EXPECTED EACH DAY THRU FRI.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SAT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE AND ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON THRU FRI FROM SEA
BREEZE FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ON
SAT LIKELY TO INHIBIT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ON THIS DAY. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW FOR STORMS OVER LAND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE PERIOD
WITH THE REALISTIC THREAT FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS TO MOVE OVER
THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AMPLE MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A 40 TO 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT...EXCEPT POSSIBLY
SOME 4 FT SEAS RETURNING AND WELL OFFSHORE ON SAT. PRIMARY THREATS
TO SMALL CRAFT BOATING FROM STORMS REMAIN CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING....GUSTY WINDS...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR CONTINUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
WITH WATER LEVELS ALSO RISING NEAR DELAND AND LAKE HARNEY. THESE TWO
SITES MAY APPROACH ACTION STAGE LATER THIS WEEK. SHINGLE CREEK HAS
ALSO BEEN ON THE RISE TO WITHIN A HALF FOOT OF ACTION STAGE AT 3 AM
AT CAMPBELL. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A
SHORT FUSE FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY SHOULD HEAVY RAIN
DEVELOP IN THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  72  86  74 /  70  40  50  30
MCO  87  72  89  73 /  70  50  50  30
MLB  87  73  87  74 /  70  50  50  30
VRB  88  72  88  74 /  70  30  50  30
LEE  87  73  89  74 /  70  40  50  30
SFB  87  73  89  74 /  70  50  50  30
ORL  87  74  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
FPR  88  72  88  73 /  70  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KTAE 300636
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
236 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Water vapor imagery shows a much drier airmass at the mid and upper
levels pushing into the area from the northwest. Although it will
remain fairly moist in the low levels today, this drier air aloft
will allow for a dry day today across most of the area. The one
exception may be across the southeast big bend where deeper moisture
will still be present along with a weak surface trough. Therefore,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could occur there
this afternoon. High temperatures may be tricky this afternoon with
low clouds likely to start the morning. Sometimes these clouds can
hang around longer than guidance indicates, causing highs to end up
lower than MOS. The official forecast went a degree or two lower
than the MAV across most of the area for temperatures.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will mean
drier conditions through Wednesday night. By Thursday, however,
chances for thunderstorms will be on an increase, particularly in
our western zones. An upper level +PV anomaly will deepen the upper
level trough over the Rockies. With enhanced divergence aloft, a
surface low and associated cold front is forecast to develop over
the central Plains and head eastward. This will increase chances for
thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and over
our western zones. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s in
our northern counties to around 70 along the coastline. Highs will
be in the upper 80s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR
to IFR cigs stretching from DHN to ABY and northward. These cigs are
expected to gradually expand southward through the morning hours.
Although the IFR cigs are expected to become MVFR by late morning to
early afternoon, it may take until the mid to late afternoon for VFR
conditions to return to most of the area.


&&

.Marine...
Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light through the
work week. After a frontal passage this weekend, winds will increase
and approach cautionary levels.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall over the next week is not expected to be sufficient for any
flooding concerns.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  69  89  70  89 /  10  10  20  10  30
Panama City   85  71  87  73  87 /  10  10  10  10  40
Dothan        84  66  88  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  30
Albany        83  66  89  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      83  67  88  67  88 /  20  10  20  10  20
Cross City    85  69  88  68  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  83  72  86  73  85 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 300636
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
236 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Water vapor imagery shows a much drier airmass at the mid and upper
levels pushing into the area from the northwest. Although it will
remain fairly moist in the low levels today, this drier air aloft
will allow for a dry day today across most of the area. The one
exception may be across the southeast big bend where deeper moisture
will still be present along with a weak surface trough. Therefore,
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms could occur there
this afternoon. High temperatures may be tricky this afternoon with
low clouds likely to start the morning. Sometimes these clouds can
hang around longer than guidance indicates, causing highs to end up
lower than MOS. The official forecast went a degree or two lower
than the MAV across most of the area for temperatures.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Zonal flow aloft and weak high pressure at the surface will mean
drier conditions through Wednesday night. By Thursday, however,
chances for thunderstorms will be on an increase, particularly in
our western zones. An upper level +PV anomaly will deepen the upper
level trough over the Rockies. With enhanced divergence aloft, a
surface low and associated cold front is forecast to develop over
the central Plains and head eastward. This will increase chances for
thunderstorms on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon and over
our western zones. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s in
our northern counties to around 70 along the coastline. Highs will
be in the upper 80s.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR
to IFR cigs stretching from DHN to ABY and northward. These cigs are
expected to gradually expand southward through the morning hours.
Although the IFR cigs are expected to become MVFR by late morning to
early afternoon, it may take until the mid to late afternoon for VFR
conditions to return to most of the area.


&&

.Marine...
Weak high pressure at the surface will keep winds light through the
work week. After a frontal passage this weekend, winds will increase
and approach cautionary levels.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


&&

.Hydrology...
Rainfall over the next week is not expected to be sufficient for any
flooding concerns.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   84  69  89  70  89 /  10  10  20  10  30
Panama City   85  71  87  73  87 /  10  10  10  10  40
Dothan        84  66  88  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  30
Albany        83  66  89  68  88 /  10   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      83  67  88  67  88 /  20  10  20  10  20
Cross City    85  69  88  68  88 /  30  20  30  20  30
Apalachicola  83  72  86  73  85 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KMFL 300540 CCC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SO
WILL PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 13Z
AND 23Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR POSSIBLE REDUCED VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  78  90 /  20  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  91  77  92 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           76  89  75  90 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300540 CCC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SO
WILL PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 13Z
AND 23Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR POSSIBLE REDUCED VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  78  90 /  20  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  91  77  92 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           76  89  75  90 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300536 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WING SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SO
WILL PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN
13Z AND 23Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  78  90 /  20  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  91  77  92 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           76  89  75  90 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300536 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WING SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SO
WILL PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN
13Z AND 23Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  78  90 /  20  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  91  77  92 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           76  89  75  90 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300536 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WING SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SO
WILL PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN
13Z AND 23Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  78  90 /  20  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  91  77  92 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           76  89  75  90 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300536 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WING SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SO
WILL PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN
13Z AND 23Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  78  90 /  20  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  91  77  92 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           76  89  75  90 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KKEY 300243
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1043 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS RESULTING IN DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH FLORIDA REGION. THIS HAS ESSENTIALLY
LEFT THE KEYS NEAR A COL WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO OUR NORTH...AND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE FAR TO OUT SOUTHEAST. WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING CONTINUES THE GRADUAL
DECREASE IN PWAT...NOW NEAR 1.88 INCHES...WITH A FAIRLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF SURFACE FLOW HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE KEYS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE SETTLED DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80 DEGREES...WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SKY COVER
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THIN UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE LACK OF
FLOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO GET ORGANIZED...DESPITE
THE UNSTABLE PROFILE...AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT POPS FOR OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOSE INTO
THE UPPER 70S DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS WATERS DUE TO A
FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO
THE SLACK FLOW. NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES
MAY CLOUD UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING MAINLY DUE TO ALTO OR
CIRRUS DECKS...BUT REDUCTION TO FLIGHT RULES IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 300243
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1043 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT IS RESULTING IN DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE NORTH FLORIDA REGION. THIS HAS ESSENTIALLY
LEFT THE KEYS NEAR A COL WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO OUR NORTH...AND THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE FAR TO OUT SOUTHEAST. WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING. THIS EVENINGS SOUNDING CONTINUES THE GRADUAL
DECREASE IN PWAT...NOW NEAR 1.88 INCHES...WITH A FAIRLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF SURFACE FLOW HAS PREVENTED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE KEYS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE SETTLED DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80 DEGREES...WITH DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SKY COVER
WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THIN UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OUT OF THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH. THE LACK OF
FLOW WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO GET ORGANIZED...DESPITE
THE UNSTABLE PROFILE...AND AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. WILL
MAINTAIN SLIGHT POPS FOR OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD NOSE INTO
THE UPPER 70S DUE TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS WATERS DUE TO A
FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ISOLATED AT BEST DUE TO
THE SLACK FLOW. NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
30/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES
MAY CLOUD UP OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING MAINLY DUE TO ALTO OR
CIRRUS DECKS...BUT REDUCTION TO FLIGHT RULES IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KMLB 300215
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THROUGH TUE EVENING...

WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A STNRY FRONT EXTENDING
BACK ACRS THE FL BIG BEND TO APALACHICOLA...EVENING RAOBS MEASURED A
SATURATED AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES BTWN 2.4"-2.5" ACRS THE
PENINSULA. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS THE BNDRY ZONE ADDED TO AN
ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH LCL HEAVY AMOUNTS...NMRS REPORTS BTWN 2.0"-3.0"...HIGHEST
MEASURED AMOUNTS FROM EDGEWATER (VOLUSIA CO) AT 3.3" AND JENSEN
BEACH (MARTIN CO) AT 3.6".

FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS SFC/LOW LVL RIDGING OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES PREVENTS ANY MEANINGFUL SWD ADVANCE AS THE LOW
PUSHES E. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PUSHED
OFFSHORE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOCATED OVER THE GULFSTREAM AS
OF LATE EVNG. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS BURNED OFF MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ENERGY...OTHER THAN POCKETS OF -RA PRECIP ACRS E CENT FL
HAS LARGELY COME TO AN END. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...
HOWEVER...AS H85-H30 MEAN RH VALUES OVER THE ERN GOMEX REMAIN AOA
70PCT...WHILE ADDITIONAL MID LVL IMPULSES ARE NOTED IN THE H85-H50
VORT FIELDS.

GIVEN THE HI MOISTURE BUT DIMINISHING LIFTING MECHANISMS...DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WHERE ANY ADDITIONAL SHRAS MIGHT OCCUR. WILL KEEP PRECIP
IN THE FCST OVERNIGHT...CUTTING BACK TO 30/40PCT WITH QPF BLO 0.10".
MINS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 01/12Z...SE-SW SFC WNDS AOB 5KTS BCMG LGT VRBL AFT 06Z...
PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL100-120 WITH AREAS MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS IN
-RA/BR...MAINLY NW OF KEVB-KISM. BTWN 01/12Z-01/15Z...SFC WNDS BCMG
W/NW 8-12KTS...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL040-060...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT
CHC IFR TSRAS. AFT 01/15Z...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL040-060... MVFR
SHRAS/IFR TSRAS LKLY.

&&

.MARINE...
STALLED FRONTAL TROF OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/CAROLINA COAST WILL
INTERACT WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES TO GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE SWRLY BREEZE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND
3-4FT OFFSHORE. LCLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS S OF CAPE CANAVERAL THRU
MIDNIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE PUSHES ACRS THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.....PENDERGRAST





000
FXUS62 KMLB 300215
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THROUGH TUE EVENING...

WEAK SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A STNRY FRONT EXTENDING
BACK ACRS THE FL BIG BEND TO APALACHICOLA...EVENING RAOBS MEASURED A
SATURATED AIRMASS WITH PWAT VALUES BTWN 2.4"-2.5" ACRS THE
PENINSULA. STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS THE BNDRY ZONE ADDED TO AN
ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO PRODUCE ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH LCL HEAVY AMOUNTS...NMRS REPORTS BTWN 2.0"-3.0"...HIGHEST
MEASURED AMOUNTS FROM EDGEWATER (VOLUSIA CO) AT 3.3" AND JENSEN
BEACH (MARTIN CO) AT 3.6".

FRONT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AS SFC/LOW LVL RIDGING OVER THE
GREATER ANTILLES PREVENTS ANY MEANINGFUL SWD ADVANCE AS THE LOW
PUSHES E. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS PUSHED
OFFSHORE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOCATED OVER THE GULFSTREAM AS
OF LATE EVNG. THE WIDESPREAD RAIN HAS BURNED OFF MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ENERGY...OTHER THAN POCKETS OF -RA PRECIP ACRS E CENT FL
HAS LARGELY COME TO AN END. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...
HOWEVER...AS H85-H30 MEAN RH VALUES OVER THE ERN GOMEX REMAIN AOA
70PCT...WHILE ADDITIONAL MID LVL IMPULSES ARE NOTED IN THE H85-H50
VORT FIELDS.

GIVEN THE HI MOISTURE BUT DIMINISHING LIFTING MECHANISMS...DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT WHERE ANY ADDITIONAL SHRAS MIGHT OCCUR. WILL KEEP PRECIP
IN THE FCST OVERNIGHT...CUTTING BACK TO 30/40PCT WITH QPF BLO 0.10".
MINS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...
THRU 01/12Z...SE-SW SFC WNDS AOB 5KTS BCMG LGT VRBL AFT 06Z...
PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL100-120 WITH AREAS MVFR/LCL IFR CIGS IN
-RA/BR...MAINLY NW OF KEVB-KISM. BTWN 01/12Z-01/15Z...SFC WNDS BCMG
W/NW 8-12KTS...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL040-060...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT
CHC IFR TSRAS. AFT 01/15Z...PREVAILING CIGS BTWN FL040-060... MVFR
SHRAS/IFR TSRAS LKLY.

&&

.MARINE...
STALLED FRONTAL TROF OVER THE FL PANHANDLE/CAROLINA COAST WILL
INTERACT WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES TO GENERATE A
GENTLE TO MODERATE SWRLY BREEZE OVERNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND
3-4FT OFFSHORE. LCLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS S OF CAPE CANAVERAL THRU
MIDNIGHT AS A SQUALL LINE PUSHES ACRS THE GULF STREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...BRAGAW
RADAR/IMPACT WX.....PENDERGRAST






000
FXUS62 KTBW 300150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING TBW SOUNDING INDICATES THAT A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
HAS SETUP ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 2.4 INCHES...STILL IN PLACE. A TROUGH/REMNANTS OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL SINK SOUTH SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. THE DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT...WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. ON
TUESDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOUNDARY COMBINES WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT TO INDICATE ISOLATED POPS BECOMING SCATTERED LATE AND
WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS WOUND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOME OF THESE COULD EFFECT THE
TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY CAUSING
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  86 /  50  50  30  60
FMY  75  89  75  89 /  30  50  40  60
GIF  74  88  73  88 /  20  60  30  70
SRQ  76  86  75  86 /  40  60  50  60
BKV  71  88  70  87 /  50  50  30  60
SPG  77  86  77  86 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON





000
FXUS62 KTBW 300150
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
950 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING TBW SOUNDING INDICATES THAT A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
HAS SETUP ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 2.4 INCHES...STILL IN PLACE. A TROUGH/REMNANTS OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL SINK SOUTH SOME OVERNIGHT
AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. THE DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME OF
THIS CONVECTION ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA
BAY AREA NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
WILL SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS
THE NATURE COAST CLOSE TO THE BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT...WHILE
FURTHER SOUTH THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST. ON
TUESDAY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AS BOUNDARY COMBINES WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW. HAVE TWEAKED GRIDS
FOR TONIGHT TO INDICATE ISOLATED POPS BECOMING SCATTERED LATE AND
WILL UPDATE ZONE FORECAST SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS WOUND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SOME OF THESE COULD EFFECT THE
TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY CAUSING
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY
SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  86 /  50  50  30  60
FMY  75  89  75  89 /  30  50  40  60
GIF  74  88  73  88 /  20  60  30  70
SRQ  76  86  75  86 /  40  60  50  60
BKV  71  88  70  87 /  50  50  30  60
SPG  77  86  77  86 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...69/CLOSE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON






000
FXUS62 KJAX 300045
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
845 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014


.UPDATE...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OFF THE NE FL COAST
WITH TRAILING FRONT/TROUGH ACROSS NE FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN
RATES HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA SO WILL
DROP FLOOD WATCH OVER SE GA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE
AS FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SE ACROSS NE FL TONIGHT. DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER FLAGLER AND SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING. WILL EXTEND FLOOD
WATCH FOR FLAGLER... ST. JOHNS...PUTNAM...AND MARION COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH CIGS/VSBYS
LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR BY MORNING. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS
AROUND 15Z WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS NOW WILL BECOME NE AND INCREASE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW OVER THE WATERS MOVES ENE AND
DEEPENS. BRIEF SCEC HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET
TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK BECOMING A MODERATE RISK ON TUESDAY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  67  86 /  80  20  10  10
SSI  68  80  70  81 / 100  40  10  10
JAX  70  82  69  84 /  80  50  20  30
SGJ  72  81  72  82 /  90  60  30  50
GNV  70  83  69  85 /  70  60  30  50
OCF  72  84  70  85 /  80  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER-MARION-PUTNAM-ST
     JOHNS.

GA...NONE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ENYEDI/MCALLISTER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 300045
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
845 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014


.UPDATE...SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING THIS EVENING OFF THE NE FL COAST
WITH TRAILING FRONT/TROUGH ACROSS NE FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN
RATES HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA SO WILL
DROP FLOOD WATCH OVER SE GA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE
AS FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SE ACROSS NE FL TONIGHT. DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER FLAGLER AND SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES...
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING. WILL EXTEND FLOOD
WATCH FOR FLAGLER... ST. JOHNS...PUTNAM...AND MARION COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT TAF SITES TONIGHT WITH CIGS/VSBYS
LOWERING TO MVFR AND IFR BY MORNING. A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS
AROUND 15Z WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS NOW WILL BECOME NE AND INCREASE
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW OVER THE WATERS MOVES ENE AND
DEEPENS. BRIEF SCEC HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS WIND
SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FEET
TONIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET ON TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK BECOMING A MODERATE RISK ON TUESDAY AS AN
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  67  86 /  80  20  10  10
SSI  68  80  70  81 / 100  40  10  10
JAX  70  82  69  84 /  80  50  20  30
SGJ  72  81  72  82 /  90  60  30  50
GNV  70  83  69  85 /  70  60  30  50
OCF  72  84  70  85 /  80  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLAGLER-MARION-PUTNAM-ST
     JOHNS.

GA...NONE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ENYEDI/MCALLISTER







000
FXUS62 KTAE 300023
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
823 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 6 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a 1010 mb low just
off the FL Panhandle coast. This low was associated with a fairly
well-defined swirl in the low cloud and radar reflectivity
imagery, and was translating eastward along a surface trough that
extended east across north FL. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a trough over our forecast area. Dry sinking air aloft was
slowly filtering into the western portions of our forecast area,
however (based on layer pwat imagery from the cira website) most
of this drying was confined to the upper troposphere. We expect
the rain to gradually taper off from west to east based on recent
satellite/radar trends, and the latest consensus of NWP guidance.
(Thus we let the Flash Flood Watch expire at 8 pm EDT). However,
given the near-saturated lower-mid troposphere, we expect plenty
of cloud cover and occasional drizzle to persist overnight.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] The heaviest SHRA had cleared the
terminals, but occasional light SHRA and/or drizzle will continue
overnight, reducing Vis to MVFR at times. We expect MVFR cigs to
develop area wide by 6z, followed by IFR cigs between 6z and 15z.
Cigs will gradually lift to MVFR levels by late morning or early
Tuesday afternoon, eventually scattering out mid to late
afternoon. Any SHRA/TSRA will be isolated Tuesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [255 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

After the main area of rainfall out ahead of the weakening shortwave
just off to our west gradually winds down tonight, PoPs will be
significantly reduced for both Tuesday and Wednesday, as weak upper
level ridging begins to become established over the northern Gulf
Coast. However, with PWATs still expected to remain unusually high
for this time of year, especially further to the south and east
across the CWA, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible each day, especially over our FL zones. PoPs will range
from silent 10s over most of SE AL and SW and SC GA, to 20 to 30%
over most of N FL. The lone exception will be the extreme SE Big
Bend (Dixie county), where 40% chances are still expected. With the
lower PoPs, upper ridging, and more daytime insolation, a gradual
warming trend is expected during the next couple of days, with
widespread high temps in the middle 80s on Tuesday, and upper 80s to
around 90 on Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the middle
to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


.Marine...

Once the remaining widespread convection exits our Coastal Waters
tonight, the resulting very weak surface pressure pattern will keep
winds and seas quite low through Thursday night. By Friday, winds
and seas will increase out of the southwest in advance of the next
cold front, with near cautionary conditions possible out of the
northwest behind this front on Friday night into Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


.Hydrology...

With the rainfall event now winding down, and only very isolated
pockets of heavy rainfall having been observed over the past couple
of days, no significant rises are expected on our area rivers and
streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  85  69  89  71 /  40  20  20  30  20
Panama City   71  84  72  87  74 /  40  20  10  20  10
Dothan        66  85  66  89  68 /  30  10  10  10  10
Albany        67  85  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      67  85  67  89  68 /  50  20  10  20  20
Cross City    71  85  69  88  68 /  80  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  71  83  73  85  74 /  70  30  20  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GOULD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300023
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
823 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 6 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a 1010 mb low just
off the FL Panhandle coast. This low was associated with a fairly
well-defined swirl in the low cloud and radar reflectivity
imagery, and was translating eastward along a surface trough that
extended east across north FL. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a trough over our forecast area. Dry sinking air aloft was
slowly filtering into the western portions of our forecast area,
however (based on layer pwat imagery from the cira website) most
of this drying was confined to the upper troposphere. We expect
the rain to gradually taper off from west to east based on recent
satellite/radar trends, and the latest consensus of NWP guidance.
(Thus we let the Flash Flood Watch expire at 8 pm EDT). However,
given the near-saturated lower-mid troposphere, we expect plenty
of cloud cover and occasional drizzle to persist overnight.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] The heaviest SHRA had cleared the
terminals, but occasional light SHRA and/or drizzle will continue
overnight, reducing Vis to MVFR at times. We expect MVFR cigs to
develop area wide by 6z, followed by IFR cigs between 6z and 15z.
Cigs will gradually lift to MVFR levels by late morning or early
Tuesday afternoon, eventually scattering out mid to late
afternoon. Any SHRA/TSRA will be isolated Tuesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [255 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

After the main area of rainfall out ahead of the weakening shortwave
just off to our west gradually winds down tonight, PoPs will be
significantly reduced for both Tuesday and Wednesday, as weak upper
level ridging begins to become established over the northern Gulf
Coast. However, with PWATs still expected to remain unusually high
for this time of year, especially further to the south and east
across the CWA, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible each day, especially over our FL zones. PoPs will range
from silent 10s over most of SE AL and SW and SC GA, to 20 to 30%
over most of N FL. The lone exception will be the extreme SE Big
Bend (Dixie county), where 40% chances are still expected. With the
lower PoPs, upper ridging, and more daytime insolation, a gradual
warming trend is expected during the next couple of days, with
widespread high temps in the middle 80s on Tuesday, and upper 80s to
around 90 on Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the middle
to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


.Marine...

Once the remaining widespread convection exits our Coastal Waters
tonight, the resulting very weak surface pressure pattern will keep
winds and seas quite low through Thursday night. By Friday, winds
and seas will increase out of the southwest in advance of the next
cold front, with near cautionary conditions possible out of the
northwest behind this front on Friday night into Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


.Hydrology...

With the rainfall event now winding down, and only very isolated
pockets of heavy rainfall having been observed over the past couple
of days, no significant rises are expected on our area rivers and
streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  85  69  89  71 /  40  20  20  30  20
Panama City   71  84  72  87  74 /  40  20  10  20  10
Dothan        66  85  66  89  68 /  30  10  10  10  10
Albany        67  85  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      67  85  67  89  68 /  50  20  10  20  20
Cross City    71  85  69  88  68 /  80  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  71  83  73  85  74 /  70  30  20  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GOULD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300023
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
823 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 6 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a 1010 mb low just
off the FL Panhandle coast. This low was associated with a fairly
well-defined swirl in the low cloud and radar reflectivity
imagery, and was translating eastward along a surface trough that
extended east across north FL. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a trough over our forecast area. Dry sinking air aloft was
slowly filtering into the western portions of our forecast area,
however (based on layer pwat imagery from the cira website) most
of this drying was confined to the upper troposphere. We expect
the rain to gradually taper off from west to east based on recent
satellite/radar trends, and the latest consensus of NWP guidance.
(Thus we let the Flash Flood Watch expire at 8 pm EDT). However,
given the near-saturated lower-mid troposphere, we expect plenty
of cloud cover and occasional drizzle to persist overnight.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] The heaviest SHRA had cleared the
terminals, but occasional light SHRA and/or drizzle will continue
overnight, reducing Vis to MVFR at times. We expect MVFR cigs to
develop area wide by 6z, followed by IFR cigs between 6z and 15z.
Cigs will gradually lift to MVFR levels by late morning or early
Tuesday afternoon, eventually scattering out mid to late
afternoon. Any SHRA/TSRA will be isolated Tuesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [255 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

After the main area of rainfall out ahead of the weakening shortwave
just off to our west gradually winds down tonight, PoPs will be
significantly reduced for both Tuesday and Wednesday, as weak upper
level ridging begins to become established over the northern Gulf
Coast. However, with PWATs still expected to remain unusually high
for this time of year, especially further to the south and east
across the CWA, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible each day, especially over our FL zones. PoPs will range
from silent 10s over most of SE AL and SW and SC GA, to 20 to 30%
over most of N FL. The lone exception will be the extreme SE Big
Bend (Dixie county), where 40% chances are still expected. With the
lower PoPs, upper ridging, and more daytime insolation, a gradual
warming trend is expected during the next couple of days, with
widespread high temps in the middle 80s on Tuesday, and upper 80s to
around 90 on Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the middle
to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


.Marine...

Once the remaining widespread convection exits our Coastal Waters
tonight, the resulting very weak surface pressure pattern will keep
winds and seas quite low through Thursday night. By Friday, winds
and seas will increase out of the southwest in advance of the next
cold front, with near cautionary conditions possible out of the
northwest behind this front on Friday night into Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


.Hydrology...

With the rainfall event now winding down, and only very isolated
pockets of heavy rainfall having been observed over the past couple
of days, no significant rises are expected on our area rivers and
streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  85  69  89  71 /  40  20  20  30  20
Panama City   71  84  72  87  74 /  40  20  10  20  10
Dothan        66  85  66  89  68 /  30  10  10  10  10
Albany        67  85  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      67  85  67  89  68 /  50  20  10  20  20
Cross City    71  85  69  88  68 /  80  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  71  83  73  85  74 /  70  30  20  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GOULD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300023
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
823 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 6 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a 1010 mb low just
off the FL Panhandle coast. This low was associated with a fairly
well-defined swirl in the low cloud and radar reflectivity
imagery, and was translating eastward along a surface trough that
extended east across north FL. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a trough over our forecast area. Dry sinking air aloft was
slowly filtering into the western portions of our forecast area,
however (based on layer pwat imagery from the cira website) most
of this drying was confined to the upper troposphere. We expect
the rain to gradually taper off from west to east based on recent
satellite/radar trends, and the latest consensus of NWP guidance.
(Thus we let the Flash Flood Watch expire at 8 pm EDT). However,
given the near-saturated lower-mid troposphere, we expect plenty
of cloud cover and occasional drizzle to persist overnight.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] The heaviest SHRA had cleared the
terminals, but occasional light SHRA and/or drizzle will continue
overnight, reducing Vis to MVFR at times. We expect MVFR cigs to
develop area wide by 6z, followed by IFR cigs between 6z and 15z.
Cigs will gradually lift to MVFR levels by late morning or early
Tuesday afternoon, eventually scattering out mid to late
afternoon. Any SHRA/TSRA will be isolated Tuesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [255 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

After the main area of rainfall out ahead of the weakening shortwave
just off to our west gradually winds down tonight, PoPs will be
significantly reduced for both Tuesday and Wednesday, as weak upper
level ridging begins to become established over the northern Gulf
Coast. However, with PWATs still expected to remain unusually high
for this time of year, especially further to the south and east
across the CWA, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible each day, especially over our FL zones. PoPs will range
from silent 10s over most of SE AL and SW and SC GA, to 20 to 30%
over most of N FL. The lone exception will be the extreme SE Big
Bend (Dixie county), where 40% chances are still expected. With the
lower PoPs, upper ridging, and more daytime insolation, a gradual
warming trend is expected during the next couple of days, with
widespread high temps in the middle 80s on Tuesday, and upper 80s to
around 90 on Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the middle
to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


.Marine...

Once the remaining widespread convection exits our Coastal Waters
tonight, the resulting very weak surface pressure pattern will keep
winds and seas quite low through Thursday night. By Friday, winds
and seas will increase out of the southwest in advance of the next
cold front, with near cautionary conditions possible out of the
northwest behind this front on Friday night into Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


.Hydrology...

With the rainfall event now winding down, and only very isolated
pockets of heavy rainfall having been observed over the past couple
of days, no significant rises are expected on our area rivers and
streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  85  69  89  71 /  40  20  20  30  20
Panama City   71  84  72  87  74 /  40  20  10  20  10
Dothan        66  85  66  89  68 /  30  10  10  10  10
Albany        67  85  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      67  85  67  89  68 /  50  20  10  20  20
Cross City    71  85  69  88  68 /  80  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  71  83  73  85  74 /  70  30  20  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GOULD








000
FXUS62 KMFL 300013
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  90  74  89 / 100  60  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  77  91 / 100  60  20  60
MIAMI            76  91  77  91 / 100  50  10  60
NAPLES           76  90  76  89 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300013
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  90  74  89 / 100  60  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  77  91 / 100  60  20  60
MIAMI            76  91  77  91 / 100  50  10  60
NAPLES           76  90  76  89 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291952
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  90  74  89 /  60  60  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  77  91 /  50  60  20  60
MIAMI            76  91  77  91 /  40  50  10  60
NAPLES           76  90  76  89 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291952
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  90  74  89 /  60  60  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  77  91 /  50  60  20  60
MIAMI            76  91  77  91 /  40  50  10  60
NAPLES           76  90  76  89 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291952
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  90  74  89 /  60  60  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  77  91 /  50  60  20  60
MIAMI            76  91  77  91 /  40  50  10  60
NAPLES           76  90  76  89 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291952
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  90  74  89 /  60  60  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  77  91 /  50  60  20  60
MIAMI            76  91  77  91 /  40  50  10  60
NAPLES           76  90  76  89 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291948
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
348 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND OFF GEORGIA SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL HAVE WEAK LOWS MOVE WEST TO EAST ALONG IT AS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AND WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MANY AREAS ALREADY HAVING RECEIVED 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GET MORE RAIN HEAVY
LATE AFTERNOON IN TO THE EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING DUE TO ACCUMULATING RAIN WATER. RAIN SHOULD SLACKEN LATE
EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING COVERAGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST TO EAST
THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
MONDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL WELL ABOVE THEIR AVERAGE AT 2 TO 2.25 INCHES COMBINED WITH
RIPPLES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL AGGRAVATE
ALREADY WATER LOGGED AREAS ORLANDO NORTH.

WEDNESDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...A
TRAILING COLD/COOL FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN A WEST TO EAST PATTERN
AND WEAK IMPULSES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MOVE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND
WITH MID LEVEL PARCELS OF ENERGY MOVING OVER/THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 PERCENT.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN PREVAILING
MVFR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPO IFR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 4
FEET AT BUOY 010 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS MOVING TO THE EAST.

TUES...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 T 3 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE
AND TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE
EAST OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO ATLANTIC OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.


PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINS NORTH OF ORLANDO WILL CREATE RISING WATER LEVELS ALONG
THE SAINT JOHNS FROM SANFORD NORTH TO LAKE GEORGE. THE SAINT JOHNS
AT ASTOR NORTH OF DELAND WAS AROUND 2.9 FEET WHICH WAS ABOUT 0.1
FOOT ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MORE RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL
CERTAINLY RAISE LEVELS HIGHER.

ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS IN A FLOOD WATCH WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF SANFORD IN SHORT TERM WARNING STATUS DEPENDING ON LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  85  72  87 /  60  60  30  50
MCO  73  89  72  90 /  60  70  30  50
MLB  74  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  40
VRB  74  90  71  89 /  60  70  30  40
LEE  73  88  73  90 /  60  60  30  50
SFB  74  88  73  90 /  60  70  30  50
ORL  74  89  74  90 /  60  70  30  50
FPR  73  89  72  89 /  50  70  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER
PUBLIC/HYDRO...ULRICH/CARTWIGHT




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291948
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
348 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND OFF GEORGIA SOUTH
CAROLINA WILL HAVE WEAK LOWS MOVE WEST TO EAST ALONG IT AS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL AROUND 2 TO 2.25 INCHES AND WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MANY AREAS ALREADY HAVING RECEIVED 1 TO
2 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD GET MORE RAIN HEAVY
LATE AFTERNOON IN TO THE EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING DUE TO ACCUMULATING RAIN WATER. RAIN SHOULD SLACKEN LATE
EVENING...OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING THEN INCREASING COVERAGE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MORE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE WEST TO EAST
THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.

TUESDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO HAVE DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
MONDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA BY TUESDAY EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL WELL ABOVE THEIR AVERAGE AT 2 TO 2.25 INCHES COMBINED WITH
RIPPLES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT WILL AGGRAVATE
ALREADY WATER LOGGED AREAS ORLANDO NORTH.

WEDNESDAY...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST
TO BE WELL EAST OF FLORIDA...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...A
TRAILING COLD/COOL FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE MID LEVEL FLOW FLATTENS OUT IN A WEST TO EAST PATTERN
AND WEAK IMPULSES OF MID LEVEL ENERGY/VORTICITY MOVE OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA. PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES AND
WITH MID LEVEL PARCELS OF ENERGY MOVING OVER/THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 50 PERCENT.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING THEN PREVAILING
MVFR OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPO IFR BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 4
FEET AT BUOY 010 120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST AS A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS MOVING TO THE EAST.

TUES...SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 T 3 FOOT SEAS NEARSHORE
AND TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVE
EAST OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO ATLANTIC OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.


PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HEAVY RAINS NORTH OF ORLANDO WILL CREATE RISING WATER LEVELS ALONG
THE SAINT JOHNS FROM SANFORD NORTH TO LAKE GEORGE. THE SAINT JOHNS
AT ASTOR NORTH OF DELAND WAS AROUND 2.9 FEET WHICH WAS ABOUT 0.1
FOOT ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MORE RAIN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL
CERTAINLY RAISE LEVELS HIGHER.

ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS IN A FLOOD WATCH WITH LOCATIONS NORTH
OF SANFORD IN SHORT TERM WARNING STATUS DEPENDING ON LOCAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  85  72  87 /  60  60  30  50
MCO  73  89  72  90 /  60  70  30  50
MLB  74  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  40
VRB  74  90  71  89 /  60  70  30  40
LEE  73  88  73  90 /  60  60  30  50
SFB  74  88  73  90 /  60  70  30  50
ORL  74  89  74  90 /  60  70  30  50
FPR  73  89  72  89 /  50  70  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN
     RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-
     OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
     SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER
PUBLIC/HYDRO...ULRICH/CARTWIGHT





000
FXUS62 KTBW 291945
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A ROBUST LOW WAS OVER THE ROCKIES...A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND TROUGHING
EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO SPRAWLED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
WATERS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG
OUT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE GA/FL
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS OF LOW-RIDGE-TROUGHING...FROM WEST
TO EAST...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE RIDGE FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE EASTERN
TROUGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. IN RESPONSE THE STEERING FLOW
GOES FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE...
MODEL PWATS RANGE IN THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE...SAGGING DOWN ACROSS
CENTRAL FL. THE DEEPEST  MOISTURE TREKS TO THE EAST WITH PWATS ALONG
THE WEST CENTRAL AND SW COASTAL AREAS TRIMMING DOWN TO AROUND 2
INCHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY EASES
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FL BY TUE AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW FORMS ON THE
PORTION OF THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT TREKS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THEN REACHING
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUE. AS THE LOW TAKES AN
EASTERLY TRACK...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST BETWEEN THE
KEYS AND CUBA.

THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS TO GENERALLY
CONTINUE. THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST WILL KEEP THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS EVENING THEN INTERIOR
SECTIONS TUE. CONVECTION WINDS DOWN BUT DOES NOT END OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH MANY/MOST AREAS ALREADY SATURATED THERE COULD BE
SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER THE STEERING FLOW IS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MOVING ALONG AND TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.
ANTICIPATE HANDLING ANY PROBLEMS WITH STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES
RATHER THAN A WATCH. MANY OF THE RIVERS ARE NEAR OR IN FLOOD STAGE
SO RESIDENTS NEARBY SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR LOWS WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
FALL MAY BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE HAVE MORE WET
DAYS AHEAD BEFORE THE TRANSITION BEGINS. THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS
WITH A STALLED FRONT STRADDLING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION AWAITING THE NEXT
MAJOR FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD HAVE
THE ABILITY TO CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SETTLING SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...POSSIBLY
SOUTH OF THE KEYS...AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A TASTE OF AUTUMN AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOW RAIN
CHANCES...AND BLUE SKIES SHOULD MAKE NEXT WEEKEND SEASONABLY
PLEASANT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD A CONSENSUS TREND...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING A TAD QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SOME FALL-LIKE WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND...A WELCOME CONTRAST TO RECENT SOGGY WEEKENDS. OF
COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST...SO WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE WATCHING THE FORECAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/18Z-30/18Z. CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING WITH A PREVAILING BKN MID DECK AND
VCNTY TSRA. HAVE BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR IN TSRA...SOONER IN THE
NORTH AND LATER IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT TSRA TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY BKN VFR CIGS. VCNTY SHRA/TSRA BEGIN TO IMPACT
TERMINALS AGAIN AFTER 09Z. WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH OR BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SLOWLY SETTLES
IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
THE FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  86 /  60  50  30  60
FMY  75  89  75  89 /  30  50  40  60
GIF  74  88  73  88 /  50  60  30  70
SRQ  76  86  75  86 /  50  60  50  60
BKV  71  88  70  87 /  60  50  30  60
SPG  77  86  76  86 /  60  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE












000
FXUS62 KTBW 291945
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A ROBUST LOW WAS OVER THE ROCKIES...A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES...AND TROUGHING
EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO SPRAWLED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
WATERS...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND A FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG
OUT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL WATERS AND ACROSS THE GA/FL
BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE CONUS OF LOW-RIDGE-TROUGHING...FROM WEST
TO EAST...WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE RIDGE FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE EASTERN
TROUGH JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEA BOARD. IN RESPONSE THE STEERING FLOW
GOES FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE...
MODEL PWATS RANGE IN THE 2 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE...SAGGING DOWN ACROSS
CENTRAL FL. THE DEEPEST  MOISTURE TREKS TO THE EAST WITH PWATS ALONG
THE WEST CENTRAL AND SW COASTAL AREAS TRIMMING DOWN TO AROUND 2
INCHES. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE FRONTAL TROUGH/BOUNDARY EASES
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FL BY TUE AFTERNOON. A WEAK LOW FORMS ON THE
PORTION OF THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY OVER THE EXTREME NE GULF
TONIGHT...DEEPENING AS IT TREKS ACROSS NORTHERN FL THEN REACHING
ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUE. AS THE LOW TAKES AN
EASTERLY TRACK...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST BETWEEN THE
KEYS AND CUBA.

THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS TO GENERALLY
CONTINUE. THE FRONT SLOWLY SETTLING IN ACROSS CENTRAL FL WITH THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST WILL KEEP THE GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS EVENING THEN INTERIOR
SECTIONS TUE. CONVECTION WINDS DOWN BUT DOES NOT END OVERNIGHT.
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RESULT IN HEAVY
RAINFALL. WITH MANY/MOST AREAS ALREADY SATURATED THERE COULD BE
SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES. HOWEVER THE STEERING FLOW IS MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS SO ANY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE MOVING ALONG AND TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.
ANTICIPATE HANDLING ANY PROBLEMS WITH STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES
RATHER THAN A WATCH. MANY OF THE RIVERS ARE NEAR OR IN FLOOD STAGE
SO RESIDENTS NEARBY SHOULD STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST
FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE FOR LOWS WHILE
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
FALL MAY BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE HAVE MORE WET
DAYS AHEAD BEFORE THE TRANSITION BEGINS. THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS
WITH A STALLED FRONT STRADDLING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION AWAITING THE NEXT
MAJOR FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD HAVE
THE ABILITY TO CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SETTLING SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...POSSIBLY
SOUTH OF THE KEYS...AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A TASTE OF AUTUMN AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOW RAIN
CHANCES...AND BLUE SKIES SHOULD MAKE NEXT WEEKEND SEASONABLY
PLEASANT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD A CONSENSUS TREND...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING A TAD QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SOME FALL-LIKE WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND...A WELCOME CONTRAST TO RECENT SOGGY WEEKENDS. OF
COURSE THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST...SO WE WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE WATCHING THE FORECAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/18Z-30/18Z. CLOUDS AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING WITH A PREVAILING BKN MID DECK AND
VCNTY TSRA. HAVE BRIEF TEMPO GROUPS FOR MVFR IN TSRA...SOONER IN THE
NORTH AND LATER IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT TSRA TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY BKN VFR CIGS. VCNTY SHRA/TSRA BEGIN TO IMPACT
TERMINALS AGAIN AFTER 09Z. WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY BUT WITH PERIODS
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL TROUGH OR BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SLOWLY SETTLES
IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL...WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS/3 FEET THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.
THE FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  75  86 /  60  50  30  60
FMY  75  89  75  89 /  30  50  40  60
GIF  74  88  73  88 /  50  60  30  70
SRQ  76  86  75  86 /  50  60  50  60
BKV  71  88  70  87 /  60  50  30  60
SPG  77  86  76  86 /  60  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE











000
FXUS62 KJAX 291910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM.

RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR VERY SLOW MOVING
BANDS OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR EXCESSIVE LOCAL
AMOUNTS.

THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE MOVING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE LOW ITSELF.

DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...HOWEVER AS IT WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AND...MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW ITSELF BRINGING BANDS OF RAIN
BACK OVER LAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS
COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE LOW. THE DIURNAL CHANGE IN READINGS
WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL FAR SOUTH THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NERN FL TUE MORNING WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. UPPER AIR PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND IN FACT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF MAX
TEMPS AND JUST BELOW GUIDANCE MOS VALUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY BUT NOT TOTALLY DROP OFF AS THE FRONT LAYS
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT FLAGLER COUNTY-MARION-GILCHRIST
COUNTIES. TUE NIGHT... ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS
MAINLY ASSIGNED TO NE FL S OF I-10 AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE
ACROSS N CENTRAL FL AREA WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO SE GA BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN SE GA.

ON WED...A TRICKY FCST AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER N CENTRAL FL
PERHAPS DRIFTING A BIT FURTHER S. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE NE FL COAST
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH A COUPLE OF TSTMS. HIGHS ARE FCST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
AND AGAIN WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ATTM.

THU...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF NE FL IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRI-MON
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ADJUSTED POPS AND TSTMS A BIT FOR
AN UPDATE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS NE FL INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT PRESSES SOUTH. ADJUSTED WX AND POPS TO DECREASE A BIT FASTER
AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEN GET OUR
FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER/COOL AIR REPLACES THE
TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN WITH US FOR SOME TIME NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHEN A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

A LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  65  85 /  80  20  10  10
SSI  68  80  70  82 / 100  40  10  10
JAX  70  82  70  84 /  80  50  20  30
SGJ  72  82  72  83 /  90  60  30  50
GNV  70  84  68  85 /  70  60  30  50
OCF  72  85  70  84 /  80  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY






000
FXUS62 KJAX 291910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM.

RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR VERY SLOW MOVING
BANDS OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR EXCESSIVE LOCAL
AMOUNTS.

THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE MOVING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE LOW ITSELF.

DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...HOWEVER AS IT WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AND...MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW ITSELF BRINGING BANDS OF RAIN
BACK OVER LAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS
COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE LOW. THE DIURNAL CHANGE IN READINGS
WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL FAR SOUTH THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NERN FL TUE MORNING WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. UPPER AIR PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND IN FACT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF MAX
TEMPS AND JUST BELOW GUIDANCE MOS VALUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY BUT NOT TOTALLY DROP OFF AS THE FRONT LAYS
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT FLAGLER COUNTY-MARION-GILCHRIST
COUNTIES. TUE NIGHT... ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS
MAINLY ASSIGNED TO NE FL S OF I-10 AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE
ACROSS N CENTRAL FL AREA WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO SE GA BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN SE GA.

ON WED...A TRICKY FCST AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER N CENTRAL FL
PERHAPS DRIFTING A BIT FURTHER S. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE NE FL COAST
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH A COUPLE OF TSTMS. HIGHS ARE FCST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
AND AGAIN WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ATTM.

THU...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF NE FL IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRI-MON
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ADJUSTED POPS AND TSTMS A BIT FOR
AN UPDATE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS NE FL INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT PRESSES SOUTH. ADJUSTED WX AND POPS TO DECREASE A BIT FASTER
AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEN GET OUR
FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER/COOL AIR REPLACES THE
TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN WITH US FOR SOME TIME NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHEN A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

A LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  65  85 /  80  20  10  10
SSI  68  80  70  82 / 100  40  10  10
JAX  70  82  70  84 /  80  50  20  30
SGJ  72  82  72  83 /  90  60  30  50
GNV  70  84  68  85 /  70  60  30  50
OCF  72  85  70  84 /  80  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY






000
FXUS62 KJAX 291910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM.

RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR VERY SLOW MOVING
BANDS OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR EXCESSIVE LOCAL
AMOUNTS.

THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE MOVING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE LOW ITSELF.

DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...HOWEVER AS IT WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AND...MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW ITSELF BRINGING BANDS OF RAIN
BACK OVER LAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS
COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE LOW. THE DIURNAL CHANGE IN READINGS
WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL FAR SOUTH THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NERN FL TUE MORNING WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. UPPER AIR PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND IN FACT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF MAX
TEMPS AND JUST BELOW GUIDANCE MOS VALUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY BUT NOT TOTALLY DROP OFF AS THE FRONT LAYS
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT FLAGLER COUNTY-MARION-GILCHRIST
COUNTIES. TUE NIGHT... ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS
MAINLY ASSIGNED TO NE FL S OF I-10 AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE
ACROSS N CENTRAL FL AREA WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO SE GA BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN SE GA.

ON WED...A TRICKY FCST AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER N CENTRAL FL
PERHAPS DRIFTING A BIT FURTHER S. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE NE FL COAST
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH A COUPLE OF TSTMS. HIGHS ARE FCST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
AND AGAIN WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ATTM.

THU...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF NE FL IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRI-MON
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ADJUSTED POPS AND TSTMS A BIT FOR
AN UPDATE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS NE FL INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT PRESSES SOUTH. ADJUSTED WX AND POPS TO DECREASE A BIT FASTER
AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEN GET OUR
FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER/COOL AIR REPLACES THE
TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN WITH US FOR SOME TIME NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHEN A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

A LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  65  85 /  80  20  10  10
SSI  68  80  70  82 / 100  40  10  10
JAX  70  82  70  84 /  80  50  20  30
SGJ  72  82  72  83 /  90  60  30  50
GNV  70  84  68  85 /  70  60  30  50
OCF  72  85  70  84 /  80  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY






000
FXUS62 KJAX 291910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE THROUGH 10 PM.

RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR VERY SLOW MOVING
BANDS OF SHOWERS...WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOR EXCESSIVE LOCAL
AMOUNTS.

THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BEFORE MOVING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AROUND MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE SUPPORT FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE AHEAD OF THE LOW ITSELF.

DO NOT EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO CUT OFF AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
LOW...HOWEVER AS IT WILL HAVE A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AND...MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW ITSELF BRINGING BANDS OF RAIN
BACK OVER LAND.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AS
COOLER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND THE LOW. THE DIURNAL CHANGE IN READINGS
WILL BE FAIRLY MINIMAL FAR SOUTH THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY-THURSDAY...
FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS NERN FL TUE MORNING WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. UPPER AIR PATTERN SUGGESTS
THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING AND IN FACT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS
MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A BLEND OF MAX
TEMPS AND JUST BELOW GUIDANCE MOS VALUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE DURING THE DAY BUT NOT TOTALLY DROP OFF AS THE FRONT LAYS
ACROSS LOCATIONS FROM ABOUT FLAGLER COUNTY-MARION-GILCHRIST
COUNTIES. TUE NIGHT... ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF TSTMS
MAINLY ASSIGNED TO NE FL S OF I-10 AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE
ACROSS N CENTRAL FL AREA WITH WEAK SFC HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO SE GA BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN SE GA.

ON WED...A TRICKY FCST AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE
REGION WITH THE DIFFUSE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER N CENTRAL FL
PERHAPS DRIFTING A BIT FURTHER S. ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE NE FL COAST
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER ACTIVITY
WITH A COUPLE OF TSTMS. HIGHS ARE FCST TO BE NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
AND AGAIN WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ATTM.

THU...UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA WITH TEMPS
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF NE FL IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRI-MON
THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ADJUSTED POPS AND TSTMS A BIT FOR
AN UPDATE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS NE FL INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT PRESSES SOUTH. ADJUSTED WX AND POPS TO DECREASE A BIT FASTER
AS BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. THEN GET OUR
FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER/COOL AIR REPLACES THE
TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN WITH US FOR SOME TIME NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING IN A
VERY MOIST AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...WITH
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY...WHEN A SLOW
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...

A LOW WILL TRACK EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT...THEN
SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS LOW WILL RESULT
IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  65  85 /  80  20  10  10
SSI  68  80  70  82 / 100  40  10  10
JAX  70  82  70  84 /  80  50  20  30
SGJ  72  82  72  83 /  90  60  30  50
GNV  70  84  68  85 /  70  60  30  50
OCF  72  85  70  84 /  80  60  40  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-
     MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 291855
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Abundant tropical moisture remains in place across the forecast area
this afternoon. While the rain has not been widespread, it has been
locally heavy with up to 5 inches falling in a corridor from Camilla
to Albany this morning. Through tonight, a weak shortwave will cross
the region and begin to push the deeper moisture south and east of
the forecast area. This should lead to diminishing rain chances as
the night goes on. Until that time, there is still some risk for
isolated heavy rain, so will allow the Flash Flood Watch to continue
until 00Z this evening.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

After the main area of rainfall out ahead of the weakening shortwave
just off to our west gradually winds down tonight, PoPs will be
significantly reduced for both Tuesday and Wednesday, as weak upper
level ridging begins to become established over the northern Gulf
Coast. However, with PWATs still expected to remain unusually high
for this time of year, especially further to the south and east
across the CWA, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible each day, especially over our FL zones. PoPs will range
from silent 10s over most of SE AL and SW and SC GA, to 20 to 30%
over most of N FL. The lone exception will be the extreme SE Big
Bend (Dixie county), where 40% chances are still expected. With the
lower PoPs, upper ridging, and more daytime insolation, a gradual
warming trend is expected during the next couple of days, with
widespread high temps in the middle 80s on Tuesday, and upper 80s to
around 90 on Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the middle
to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.

&&

.Aviation...

[through 18Z Tuesday] MVFR conditions occurring at most terminals
early this afternoon. Main exception is KECP which still has IFR
cigs. Expect MVFR to occasional IFR conditions to continue through
the afternoon before IFR cigs settle in at all terminals this
evening for the overnight hours. Conditions will be slow to improve
on Tuesday, with MVFR conditions not expected until late morning.

&&

.Marine...

Once the remaining widespread convection exits our Coastal Waters
tonight, the resulting very weak surface pressure pattern will keep
winds and seas quite low through Thursday night. By Friday, winds
and seas will increase out of the southwest in advance of the next
cold front, with near cautionary conditions possible out of the
northwest behind this front on Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.

&&

.Hydrology...

With the rainfall event now winding down, and only very isolated
pockets of heavy rainfall having been observed over the past couple
of days, no significant rises are expected on our area rivers and
streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  85  69  89  71 /  60  20  20  30  20
Panama City   70  84  72  87  74 /  40  20  10  20  10
Dothan        65  85  66  89  68 /  40  10  10  10  10
Albany        65  85  66  89  69 /  50  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      67  85  67  89  68 /  70  20  10  20  20
Cross City    70  85  69  88  68 /  60  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  71  83  73  85  74 /  50  30  20  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GOULD







000
FXUS62 KKEY 291848
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
248 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY SLOPPY SURFACE PATTERN THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTED BY LOW PRESSURE WEST OF BERMUDA...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BREEZES ARE GENTLE AND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. THE 12Z RAOB OBSERVATION DETECTED A
NOTEWORTHY LAYER OF DRY AIR JUST BELOW 700 MB. THIS MORNING`S SHALLOW
EASTERLIES HAVE BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ACCORDING TO RECENT SCANS OF
THE KBYX VWP. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90.
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A BROAD SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL ACT UPON
THE SURFACE TROUGH WAITING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS
DEVELOPING CYCLONE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...THE PRESSURE
FIELD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL SQUASH INTO A RIDGE AXIS. THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ATOP OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES...WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE HEATING OF
NEARBY LANDMASSES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS ISLAND CHAIN CLOUD LINES COALESCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LARGER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...SWINGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THEREAFTER...ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO
GRADUALLY CARVE OUT LOWER AND LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL CREEP ACROSS THE GULF...PARALLELING THE
HEIGHT GRADIENT IN THE MID LEVELS. DESPITE ITS SOUTHWARD
AMBITIONS...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT
EYW AND MTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT
3000 FEET WILL VEER TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1994...3.15 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST
ON SEPTEMBER 29TH. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  89  79  89 / 20 30 20 30
MARATHON  78  89  78  89 / 20 30 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291848
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800MB...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING TO
2.2-2.4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT OR PUSH INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE LATEST
RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND
QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METROS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE ZFP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  74  90  74 /  80  60  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  76  91  77 /  70  40  50  10
NAPLES           88  76  90  76 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291848
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800MB...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING TO
2.2-2.4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT OR PUSH INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE LATEST
RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND
QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METROS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE ZFP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  74  90  74 /  80  60  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  76  91  77 /  70  40  50  10
NAPLES           88  76  90  76 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291848
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800MB...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING TO
2.2-2.4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT OR PUSH INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE LATEST
RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND
QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METROS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE ZFP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  74  90  74 /  80  60  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  76  91  77 /  70  40  50  10
NAPLES           88  76  90  76 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291848
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800MB...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING TO
2.2-2.4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT OR PUSH INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE LATEST
RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND
QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METROS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE ZFP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  74  90  74 /  80  60  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  76  91  77 /  70  40  50  10
NAPLES           88  76  90  76 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KKEY 291848
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
248 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY SLOPPY SURFACE PATTERN THIS
AFTERNOON...HIGHLIGHTED BY LOW PRESSURE WEST OF BERMUDA...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BREEZES ARE GENTLE AND
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. THE 12Z RAOB OBSERVATION DETECTED A
NOTEWORTHY LAYER OF DRY AIR JUST BELOW 700 MB. THIS MORNING`S SHALLOW
EASTERLIES HAVE BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY ACCORDING TO RECENT SCANS OF
THE KBYX VWP. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90.
SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ISOLATED AT THIS TIME.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A BROAD SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL ACT UPON
THE SURFACE TROUGH WAITING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS
DEVELOPING CYCLONE TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...THE PRESSURE
FIELD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL SQUASH INTO A RIDGE AXIS. THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ATOP OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES...WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE HEATING OF
NEARBY LANDMASSES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AS ISLAND CHAIN CLOUD LINES COALESCE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LARGER ISLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...SWINGING AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THEREAFTER...ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES TO
GRADUALLY CARVE OUT LOWER AND LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THE FRONT WILL CREEP ACROSS THE GULF...PARALLELING THE
HEIGHT GRADIENT IN THE MID LEVELS. DESPITE ITS SOUTHWARD
AMBITIONS...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT
EYW AND MTH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT
3000 FEET WILL VEER TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1994...3.15 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST
ON SEPTEMBER 29TH. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  89  79  89 / 20 30 20 30
MARATHON  78  89  78  89 / 20 30 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 291532
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1132 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface trough remains well defined just offshore this morning
with a sharp shift from southerly to northeasterly flow noted
along the boundary in the surface analysis. A few rotating cells
have developed over Apalachee Bay this morning, along this
boundary. However, all of this activity has remained well offshore
so far. Otherwise, a very moist and tropical atmosphere remains in
place this morning, with precipitable waters close to 2.3 inches
on the 12z KTAE sounding. At the mid-levels, a weak shortwave was
analyzed across the forecast area at 12Z, with another weak
shortwave crossing the Mississippi River. Despite the abundant
moisture, nearshore boundary, and weak energy aloft, the regional
radar mosaic is very underwhelming with very light return across
most of the area. The heaviest precip over land this morning has
been around the Albany area, where radar estimates are approaching
2 inches over the past 4 to 6 hours. Still expect pretty broad
coverage of rain through the afternoon, but most of the totals
should be pretty light. However, given the tropical atmosphere and
the approach of another weak mid-level shortwave, I am a bit
reluctant to drop the Flash Flood Watch just yet. Some very heavy
rain rates were noted in cells over southwest Georgia earlier this
morning, and the potential still exists for localized heavy rain
through the afternoon, so will leave the watch in place for now.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday] IFR/MVFR cigs will likely persist through
most of the day at all area terminals. There may be some brief
improvement during the afternoon hours, but ceilings will likely
lower again after sunset and persist throught he overnight hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [311 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.


.Marine...
A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


.Hydrology...
We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  69  86  68  89 /  90  60  20  10  20
Panama City   83  70  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  10  20
Dothan        80  66  86  65  88 /  80  40  10  10  10
Albany        78  66  85  65  87 / 100  50  10  10  10
Valdosta      81  67  85  65  87 /  90  70  20  10  20
Cross City    83  70  86  67  88 /  90  60  30  20  20
Apalachicola  82  71  84  71  85 /  90  50  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 291532
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1132 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface trough remains well defined just offshore this morning
with a sharp shift from southerly to northeasterly flow noted
along the boundary in the surface analysis. A few rotating cells
have developed over Apalachee Bay this morning, along this
boundary. However, all of this activity has remained well offshore
so far. Otherwise, a very moist and tropical atmosphere remains in
place this morning, with precipitable waters close to 2.3 inches
on the 12z KTAE sounding. At the mid-levels, a weak shortwave was
analyzed across the forecast area at 12Z, with another weak
shortwave crossing the Mississippi River. Despite the abundant
moisture, nearshore boundary, and weak energy aloft, the regional
radar mosaic is very underwhelming with very light return across
most of the area. The heaviest precip over land this morning has
been around the Albany area, where radar estimates are approaching
2 inches over the past 4 to 6 hours. Still expect pretty broad
coverage of rain through the afternoon, but most of the totals
should be pretty light. However, given the tropical atmosphere and
the approach of another weak mid-level shortwave, I am a bit
reluctant to drop the Flash Flood Watch just yet. Some very heavy
rain rates were noted in cells over southwest Georgia earlier this
morning, and the potential still exists for localized heavy rain
through the afternoon, so will leave the watch in place for now.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Tuesday] IFR/MVFR cigs will likely persist through
most of the day at all area terminals. There may be some brief
improvement during the afternoon hours, but ceilings will likely
lower again after sunset and persist throught he overnight hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [311 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.


.Marine...
A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


.Hydrology...
We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  69  86  68  89 /  90  60  20  10  20
Panama City   83  70  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  10  20
Dothan        80  66  86  65  88 /  80  40  10  10  10
Albany        78  66  85  65  87 / 100  50  10  10  10
Valdosta      81  67  85  65  87 /  90  70  20  10  20
Cross City    83  70  86  67  88 /  90  60  30  20  20
Apalachicola  82  71  84  71  85 /  90  50  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KKEY 291443
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1043 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY SLOPPY SURFACE PATTERN THIS
MORNING...HIGHLIGHTED BY LOW PRESSURE WEST OF BERMUDA...LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...AND A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BREEZES ARE GENTLE AND MAINLY FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z RAOB OBSERVATION DETECTED A NOTEWORTHY LAYER
OF DRY AIR JUST BELOW 700 MB...IN ADDITION...A SHALLOW LAYER OF
EASTERLIES LAY BENEATH A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BARBS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ARE ON THEIR WAY TO 90.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLIER HAVE NOW GIVEN WAY TO A MOSTLY ECHO FREE
RADAR ANALYSIS.

.FORECAST...A BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL ACT UPON THE SURFACE TROUGH WAITING IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...THE PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
WILL SQUASH INTO A RIDGE AXIS. THUS...THE GENTLE BREEZES WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND AT TIMES VARIABLE. DESPITE THE
SAMPLED DRY LAYER...THERE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE RECEIVED
TWO WATERSPOUT REPORTS SO FAR THIS MORNING...AND CANNOT RULE OUT MORE
SPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER
KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...LEAVING A LOCALLY WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE TONIGHT. THESE POSSIBILITIES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE
IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET
WILL VEER TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1994...3.15 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST
ON SEPTEMBER 29TH. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&


.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291443
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1043 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A RELATIVELY SLOPPY SURFACE PATTERN THIS
MORNING...HIGHLIGHTED BY LOW PRESSURE WEST OF BERMUDA...LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...AND A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BREEZES ARE GENTLE AND MAINLY FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z RAOB OBSERVATION DETECTED A NOTEWORTHY LAYER
OF DRY AIR JUST BELOW 700 MB...IN ADDITION...A SHALLOW LAYER OF
EASTERLIES LAY BENEATH A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BARBS.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES ARE ON THEIR WAY TO 90.
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLIER HAVE NOW GIVEN WAY TO A MOSTLY ECHO FREE
RADAR ANALYSIS.

.FORECAST...A BROAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL ACT UPON THE SURFACE TROUGH WAITING IN
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE TRACKS
EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...THE PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
WILL SQUASH INTO A RIDGE AXIS. THUS...THE GENTLE BREEZES WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND AT TIMES VARIABLE. DESPITE THE
SAMPLED DRY LAYER...THERE APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS TO ALLOW FOR CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT. WE HAVE RECEIVED
TWO WATERSPOUT REPORTS SO FAR THIS MORNING...AND CANNOT RULE OUT MORE
SPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER
KEYS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...LEAVING A LOCALLY WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE TONIGHT. THESE POSSIBILITIES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE
IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET
WILL VEER TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN
1994...3.15 INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST
ON SEPTEMBER 29TH. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&


.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 291419
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800MB...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING TO
2.2-2.4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT OR PUSH INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE LATEST
RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND
QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METROS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE ZFP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  70  50  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  70  40  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
953 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...LATER ON THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AND
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  70  50  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  70  40  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
953 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...LATER ON THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AND
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  70  50  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  70  40  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
953 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...LATER ON THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AND
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  70  50  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  70  40  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
953 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...LATER ON THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AND
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  70  50  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  70  40  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMLB 291349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON....STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL PARKED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA SHOWED A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH ALL FOUR/4 SITES
RECORDING AT LEAST 2.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHORT WAVE
MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY WILL ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

FORECAST POP OF 70 PERCENT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A GOOD FORECAST.


PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TWD N FL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT A CHC OF SHRA INTO LATE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES WITH
TSRA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 4 FEET AT BUOY 010
120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF MOVES EAST.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

SSE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SW
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-4
FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIAL WSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW DURING THE DAY
SURROUNDING DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AS
WELL AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. INITIAL WINDS
SPEEDS OF 14-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EARLY MORNING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2.8 FT WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 2.8 FT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT MAY CREEP A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON FUTURE RAINFALL
THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING AT FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR RISES ON FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND
CREEKS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH/NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/SEMINOLE/BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  73 /  70  70  60  30
MCO  89  73  89  72 /  70  60  60  30
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  70  60  60  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  88  73  88  72 /  70  50  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  60  30
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  70  60  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX......CRISTALDI
FORECASTS......WIMMER
PUBLIC/HYDRO...ULRICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 291349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON....STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL PARKED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA SHOWED A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH ALL FOUR/4 SITES
RECORDING AT LEAST 2.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHORT WAVE
MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY WILL ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

FORECAST POP OF 70 PERCENT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A GOOD FORECAST.


PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TWD N FL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT A CHC OF SHRA INTO LATE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES WITH
TSRA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 4 FEET AT BUOY 010
120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF MOVES EAST.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

SSE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SW
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-4
FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIAL WSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW DURING THE DAY
SURROUNDING DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AS
WELL AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. INITIAL WINDS
SPEEDS OF 14-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EARLY MORNING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2.8 FT WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 2.8 FT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT MAY CREEP A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON FUTURE RAINFALL
THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING AT FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR RISES ON FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND
CREEKS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH/NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/SEMINOLE/BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  73 /  70  70  60  30
MCO  89  73  89  72 /  70  60  60  30
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  70  60  60  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  88  73  88  72 /  70  50  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  60  30
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  70  60  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX......CRISTALDI
FORECASTS......WIMMER
PUBLIC/HYDRO...ULRICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 291349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON....STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL PARKED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA SHOWED A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH ALL FOUR/4 SITES
RECORDING AT LEAST 2.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHORT WAVE
MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY WILL ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

FORECAST POP OF 70 PERCENT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A GOOD FORECAST.


PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TWD N FL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT A CHC OF SHRA INTO LATE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES WITH
TSRA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 4 FEET AT BUOY 010
120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF MOVES EAST.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

SSE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SW
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-4
FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIAL WSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW DURING THE DAY
SURROUNDING DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AS
WELL AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. INITIAL WINDS
SPEEDS OF 14-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EARLY MORNING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2.8 FT WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 2.8 FT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT MAY CREEP A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON FUTURE RAINFALL
THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING AT FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR RISES ON FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND
CREEKS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH/NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/SEMINOLE/BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  73 /  70  70  60  30
MCO  89  73  89  72 /  70  60  60  30
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  70  60  60  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  88  73  88  72 /  70  50  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  60  30
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  70  60  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX......CRISTALDI
FORECASTS......WIMMER
PUBLIC/HYDRO...ULRICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 291349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON....STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL PARKED OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE MORNING UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA SHOWED A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH ALL FOUR/4 SITES
RECORDING AT LEAST 2.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. SHORT WAVE
MOVING OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY WILL ENHANCE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.

FORECAST POP OF 70 PERCENT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS A GOOD FORECAST.


PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TWD N FL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT A CHC OF SHRA INTO LATE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES WITH
TSRA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-THIS AFTERNOON...BUOYS RECORDING SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 20NM AND TO 4 FEET AT BUOY 010
120NM EAST OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH.

WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS
DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF MOVES EAST.

CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FOR THE MID MORNING UPDATE.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

SSE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SW
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-4
FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIAL WSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW DURING THE DAY
SURROUNDING DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AS
WELL AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. INITIAL WINDS
SPEEDS OF 14-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EARLY MORNING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2.8 FT WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 2.8 FT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT MAY CREEP A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON FUTURE RAINFALL
THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING AT FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR RISES ON FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND
CREEKS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH/NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/SEMINOLE/BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  73 /  70  70  60  30
MCO  89  73  89  72 /  70  60  60  30
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  70  60  60  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  88  73  88  72 /  70  50  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  60  30
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  70  60  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

IMPACT WX......CRISTALDI
FORECASTS......WIMMER
PUBLIC/HYDRO...ULRICH





000
FXUS62 KTBW 291348
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
948 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY)...
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA WHILE A
BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH REACHED FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO SOUTH GA AND
NORTH FL. THE TBW 12Z RAOB CAME IN WITH A PWAT OF 2.3 INCHES AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYER...THAT BECAME SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT. OTHER CENTRAL AND NORTH FL RAOBS HAD PWAT IN THE 2.2. TO
2.3 INCH RANGE...SOUTH FL SITES HAD 1.8-1.9 INCHES. LATEST RADAR
SHOWS JUST SHOWERS...A FEW ROBUST...OFFSHORE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORMING UP A BIT LATER THAN EXPECTED...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT THIS IN THE NEAR TERM OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...
29/12Z-30/12Z. BKN MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. SCT-NMRS TSRA AGAIN
EXPECTED BUT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS SO TAFS JUST
HAVE VCTS. EAST AND SE WINDS BECOME SOUTH AND SW THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT...THEN SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WESTERLY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AT OR BELOW 15 KNOTS...AND THEN BECOME VERY LIGHT FROM THE
EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  75  87  75 /  60  40  60  30
FMY  88  75  89  75 /  50  30  50  40
GIF  88  73  87  73 /  70  20  70  30
SRQ  86  75  87  75 /  50  40  50  50
BKV  86  72  87  70 /  70  50  60  30
SPG  85  77  86  76 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD









000
FXUS62 KJAX 291305
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
905 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...

FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE...WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES FROM
MORNING JAX SOUNDING AROUND 2.2 INCHES. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING EAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GULF THIS MORNING. SEVERAL
MESO LOWS CAN BE SEEN SPINNING IN THE RADAR IMAGERY AT THIS
TIME...WITH HEAVY RAINS IN THEIR VICINITY. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXIT INTO THE ATLANTIC AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WITH MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO ITS EAST.

WITH CLOUDS AND RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE WITH
READINGS GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF SUNSHINE...SO READINGS
THERE MAY BUMP UP A LITTLE WARMER INTO THE MIDDLE 80S THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  67  82  65 / 100  80  30  10
SSI  79  70  80  70 /  90  90  60  10
JAX  81  70  82  70 /  90  80  40  20
SGJ  81  72  82  72 /  80  80  60  20
GNV  82  70  84  68 /  80  70  60  30
OCF  84  71  85  70 /  70  70  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-
     COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KKEY 291136
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
740 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE
TONIGHT. THESE POSSIBILITIES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL
VEER TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 291136
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
740 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE
TONIGHT. THESE POSSIBILITIES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL
VEER TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 291136
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
740 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE
TONIGHT. THESE POSSIBILITIES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL
VEER TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 291136
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
740 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON AND LATE
TONIGHT. THESE POSSIBILITIES ARE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL
VEER TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT.

&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 290834
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
434 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

TODAY...MID LEVEL IMPULSE RIDING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY WARM
FRONT ACROSS NE FL WAS PRODUCING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS THE JAX METRO
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM THE WEST TO NORTH SIDE OF JAX WHERE MINOR FLOODING OF A FEW LOW
LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE. THIS RAIN WILL MOVE NORTH INTO COASTAL
SE GA THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF SOME LYING AREAS AS WELL.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BROAD SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF
TO TRACK NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR TODAY...WHILE ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE
NE FL COAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO NE FL.

WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS AREA WIDE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE LOW WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE STRONGEST. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA IN AN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE HIGH P`WATS (2.2 INCHES)
...RECENT HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PART OF AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE HEAVY RAIN...AND COORDINATING WITH OTHER OFFICES...HAVE
OPTED TO PUT OUT A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
10 PM THIS EVE. WHILE WE`RE NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD FLOODING
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED LOWLAND FLOODING AS SOME
AREAS MAY RECEIVE SEVERAL INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE THIS
EVENING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE AREA AND RAINS
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF.

TUESDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL RESIDE JUST OFFSHORE WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING BACK ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS NE FL AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS
SOUTH. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT EAST ACROSS
THE AREA AND DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO SE GA BUT STILL
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN SE GA
AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER 80S FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL AND A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EVEN A ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
INTERIOR OF NE FL IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS NE FL INTO SATURDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT PRESSES SOUTH. WE WILL THEN GET OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL
AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR REPLACES THE TROPICAL AIRMASS THAT HAS
BEEN WITH US FOR SOME TIME NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. WILL HAVE
PREVAILING MVFR AND OCNL TS MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL ALSO HAVE OCNL
IFR CIGS/VSBY ESPECIALLY THRU 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH TODAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE TROUGH. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA BUT WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. A PERIOD OF ONSHORE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS TURNING
TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FIRST STRONG
COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND THEN PERHAPS A MODERATE RISK
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW AS ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  67  82  65 / 100  80  30  10
SSI  79  70  80  70 /  90  90  60  10
JAX  81  70  82  70 /  90  80  40  20
SGJ  81  72  82  72 /  80  80  60  20
GNV  82  70  84  68 /  80  70  60  30
OCF  84  71  85  70 /  70  70  60  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-
     COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-MARION-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-
     BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PETERSON/SHULER/








000
FXUS62 KTBW 290817
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA LINE. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME BREAKS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...WITH SOME CONVECTION 30+ MILES OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

TODAY...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DIFFERENT
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THAN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.4 INCHES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH
GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FLOODING GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. THE BIG
FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND THE IMPACT OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE REGION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
DELAY TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THERE APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO WARRANT A FLOOD
WATCH FOR OUR PART OF THE STATE. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WE
SHOULD SEE THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAIN/SPRINKLES MAY SHIFT ONSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2
PM...ASSUMING THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THINS
SUFFICIENTLY...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FROM
THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD. BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM...THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...WITH LIKELY POPS OVERSPREADING
INTERIOR ZONES. AFTER 5 PM...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WELL GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE. OVERALL...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE BIG BEND REGION ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF
THE NATURE COAST...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 11
PM GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. OVER THE NATURE COAST...WILL
KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF DUE TO
SPEED CONVERGENCE...AND WILL SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING INTO COASTAL ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN PLACE HERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE
COAST AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...MOST LIKELY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.3 INCHES. WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BETTER COVERAGE THEN
SHIFTING INTO INTERIOR ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FAIRLY GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
FALL MAY BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE HAVE MORE WET
DAYS AHEAD BEFORE THE TRANSITION BEGINS. THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS
WITH A STALLED FRONT STRADDLING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION AWAITING THE NEXT
MAJOR FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD HAVE
THE ABILITY TO CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SETTLING SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...POSSIBLY
SOUTH OF THE KEYS...AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A TASTE OF AUTUMN AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOW RAIN
CHANCES...AND BLUE SKIES SHOULD MAKE NEXT WEEKEND SEASONABLY
PLEASANT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD A CONSENSUS TREND...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING A TAD QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SOME FALL-LIKE WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND...A WELCOME CONTRAST TO RECENT SOGGY WEEKENDS. OF COURSE
THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST...SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
WATCHING THE FORECAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW
STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT CAN/T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AT
THE TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY. WE EXPECT AN EARLIER START AND END TO THE
CONVECTION GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS LOW GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION
TODAY...AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS UNTIL TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  75  87  75 /  60  40  60  30
FMY  88  75  89  75 /  50  30  50  40
GIF  88  73  87  73 /  70  20  70  30
SRQ  86  75  87  75 /  60  40  50  50
BKV  86  72  87  70 /  70  50  60  30
SPG  85  77  86  76 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 290817
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
417 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING
EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA LINE. INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES IN PLACE ACROSS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME BREAKS ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT STRATIFORM RAINFALL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF...WITH SOME CONVECTION 30+ MILES OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST. MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR TODAY REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL.

TODAY...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...RESULTING IN A DIFFERENT
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THAN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 2.2 AND 2.4 INCHES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH
GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH FLOODING GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS. THE BIG
FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY REVOLVES AROUND THE IMPACT OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD OVER THE REGION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
DELAY TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION AND LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. ADDITIONALLY...SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...GIVEN THE FACTORS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THERE APPEARS TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO WARRANT A FLOOD
WATCH FOR OUR PART OF THE STATE. AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WE
SHOULD SEE THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD CONTINUE TO THIN THROUGH
DAYBREAK AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE LIGHT STRATIFORM
RAIN/SPRINKLES MAY SHIFT ONSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
HEAVIER RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ZONES IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2
PM...ASSUMING THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUD COVER THINS
SUFFICIENTLY...WE SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LIKELY POPS EXPECTED FROM
THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD. BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM...THE ACTIVITY
SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND...WITH LIKELY POPS OVERSPREADING
INTERIOR ZONES. AFTER 5 PM...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD...WITH
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS CENTRAL INTERIOR ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY TODAY AS WELL GIVEN THE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN
PLACE. OVERALL...EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

TONIGHT...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM
THE BIG BEND REGION ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OFF
THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE A TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE EVENING SOUTH OF
THE NATURE COAST...BUT WILL HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH 11
PM GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. OVER THE NATURE COAST...WILL
KEEP CHANCE/LIKELY POPS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AFTER MIDNIGHT...WE
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF DUE TO
SPEED CONVERGENCE...AND WILL SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING INTO COASTAL ZONES PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN PLACE HERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUESDAY...
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NATURE
COAST AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...MOST LIKELY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF
TAMPA BAY BY TUESDAY EVENING. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAINING BETWEEN 2.1 AND 2.3 INCHES. WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXPECT THE
BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BETTER COVERAGE THEN
SHIFTING INTO INTERIOR ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. FAIRLY GOOD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ONCE
AGAIN...WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
FALL MAY BE KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WE HAVE MORE WET
DAYS AHEAD BEFORE THE TRANSITION BEGINS. THE LONG TERM PERIOD OPENS
WITH A STALLED FRONT STRADDLING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE STALLED BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION AWAITING THE NEXT
MAJOR FRONTAL ARRIVAL LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS NEXT FRONT SHOULD HAVE
THE ABILITY TO CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SETTLING SOMEWHERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...POSSIBLY
SOUTH OF THE KEYS...AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A TASTE OF AUTUMN AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. COOLER TEMPERATURES...LOW RAIN
CHANCES...AND BLUE SKIES SHOULD MAKE NEXT WEEKEND SEASONABLY
PLEASANT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BUILD A CONSENSUS TREND...WITH
THE ECMWF BEING A TAD QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH CLEARING THE FRONT
THROUGH. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR SOME FALL-LIKE WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND...A WELCOME CONTRAST TO RECENT SOGGY WEEKENDS. OF COURSE
THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST...SO WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
WATCHING THE FORECAST PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTION IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LOW
STRATUS FROM DEVELOPING MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...BUT CAN/T
ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS AROUND DAYBREAK. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
OVER THE REGION SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA AT
THE TAF SITES AGAIN TODAY. WE EXPECT AN EARLIER START AND END TO THE
CONVECTION GIVEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING IS LOW GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION
TODAY...AND WILL HANDLE WITH VCTS UNTIL TIMING BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN SAG SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS ON SATURDAY. OVERALL...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 3 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  85  75  87  75 /  60  40  60  30
FMY  88  75  89  75 /  50  30  50  40
GIF  88  73  87  73 /  70  20  70  30
SRQ  86  75  87  75 /  60  40  50  50
BKV  86  72  87  70 /  70  50  60  30
SPG  85  77  86  76 /  60  40  60  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  60  40  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  50  30  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  60  30  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION.....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 290743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  60  40  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  50  30  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  60  30  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION.....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 290743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  60  40  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  50  30  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  60  30  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION.....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 290743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  60  40  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  50  30  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  60  30  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION.....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMLB 290741
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TWD N FL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT A CHC OF SHRA INTO LATE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES WITH
TSRA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

SSE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SW
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-4
FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIAL WSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW DURING THE DAY
SURROUNDING DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AS
WELL AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. INITIAL WINDS
SPEEDS OF 14-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EARLY MORNING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2.8 FT WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 2.8 FT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT MAY CREEP A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON FUTURE RAINFALL
THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING AT FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR RISES ON FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND
CREEKS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH/NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/SEMINOLE/BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  73 /  70  70  60  30
MCO  89  73  89  72 /  70  60  60  30
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  70  60  60  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  88  73  88  72 /  70  50  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  60  30
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  70  60  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMLB 290741
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TWD N FL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT A CHC OF SHRA INTO LATE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES WITH
TSRA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

SSE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SW
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-4
FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIAL WSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW DURING THE DAY
SURROUNDING DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AS
WELL AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. INITIAL WINDS
SPEEDS OF 14-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EARLY MORNING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2.8 FT WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 2.8 FT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT MAY CREEP A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON FUTURE RAINFALL
THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING AT FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR RISES ON FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND
CREEKS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH/NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/SEMINOLE/BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  73 /  70  70  60  30
MCO  89  73  89  72 /  70  60  60  30
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  70  60  60  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  88  73  88  72 /  70  50  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  60  30
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  70  60  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMLB 290741
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TWD N FL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT A CHC OF SHRA INTO LATE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES WITH
TSRA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

SSE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SW
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-4
FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIAL WSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW DURING THE DAY
SURROUNDING DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AS
WELL AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. INITIAL WINDS
SPEEDS OF 14-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EARLY MORNING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2.8 FT WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 2.8 FT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT MAY CREEP A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON FUTURE RAINFALL
THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING AT FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR RISES ON FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND
CREEKS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH/NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/SEMINOLE/BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  73 /  70  70  60  30
MCO  89  73  89  72 /  70  60  60  30
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  70  60  60  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  88  73  88  72 /  70  50  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  60  30
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  70  60  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMLB 290741
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY...

TODAY...STRONG S/W ALOFT NEAR THE NRN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TODAY AND INCREASE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER E CENTRAL FL AS AN AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE NRN FL PENINSULA BY THIS
EVENING. A FEW MID LVL IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TWD E CENTRAL
FL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS LOW LVL FLOW VEERS TO S THIS MORNING
AND SW THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE TO GET SOME MORNING SUN TO WORK
ON INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 2.2
TO 2.4 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES SLOWLY INLAND AND MEETS UP WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
INTERIOR AND MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. 4KM WRF FOR SPC INDICATES HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OVER E CENTRAL FL BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND MOVING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE EXTREMELY DEEP
MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT EXPECT SHOWERS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 2-4 INCHES WITH AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WILL HOIST A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WITH THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE FRONT DROPS
INTO CENTRAL FL TRAILING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE. WILL
HAVE RAIN CHANCES AROUND 70 PERCENT MOST OF THE AREA AND THAT MAY BE
CONSERVATIVE. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS ABOVE 40 MPH AS THEY MOVE TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO NEAR 90 AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

TONIGHT...EXPECT ONGOING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN HALF
OF E CENTRAL FL INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE ATLC
BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND
ANOTHER MID LVL IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH RAIN COOLED AIR.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD.
AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON
THIS DAY. THE CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUES. WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND OFF
OF THE EAST COAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

WED-THU...FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. A LIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA WITH AN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORECAST EACH DAY. WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT EACH DAY...THOUGH STEERING FLOW WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
THAN ON TUE. WILL GO WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS AGAIN ON WED (40-50
PERCENT) AND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR THU. AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.

FRI-SUN...GENERAL TROUGHINESS ALOFT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS THROUGH THIS TIME. ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP
INTO THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FRI OVERNIGHT...THEN INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SAT. BY SUNDAY IT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL AGAIN POOL ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THIS LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COOLER/DRYER AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 40 PERCENT
POPS IN FOR FRI...50 PERCENT FOR SAT AND GRADUALLY DRY THINGS OUT
SOUTH OF A KMLB-KISM LINE DURING THE DAY ON SUN AS THE FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD.



&&

.AVIATION...
SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS E CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A S/W TROUGH ALOFT MOVING TWD N FL. HAVE ADDED TEMPO TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ALL TERMINALS AND EXPECT A CHC OF SHRA INTO LATE EVENING.
IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED WITH VSBYS BLO 3 MILES WITH
TSRA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...

SSE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME S-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND SW
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-4
FT OFFSHORE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. STORM GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...INITIAL WSW WINDS WILL VEER TO NW DURING THE DAY
SURROUNDING DEVELOPING WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS AS
WELL AS A WEAK FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA. INITIAL WINDS
SPEEDS OF 14-17 KTS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WILL DECREASE TO 10-15
KTS DURING THE DAY AND 8-12 KTS OVERNIGHT TUE. DEEP MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF OF
THE COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND
STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS. SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET NEAR
SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

WED-FRI...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY MOVES SOUTH OF THE WATERS
ON WED WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE STEERING FLOW WILL BE WEAKER WED-FRI...BUT
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL KEEP CHANCE WORDING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
FORECAST. SEAS EXPECTED 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 3-4 OFFSHORE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...EARLY MORNING RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE ST JOHNS AT ASTOR
HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 2.8 FT WHICH IS FLOOD STAGE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR THE RIVER LEVEL TO REMAIN AROUND 2.8 FT THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS BUT MAY CREEP A BIT HIGHER DEPENDING ON FUTURE RAINFALL
THROUGH MID WEEK. AREA RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE RUNNING AT FAIRLY HIGH
LEVELS WITH THE HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST WEEK AND A HALF. THERE
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR RISES ON FAST RESPONDING SMALLER RIVERS AND
CREEKS LATER TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO INCLUDING DAYTONA BEACH/NEW SMYRNA BEACH/PORTIONS OF
ORANGE/SEMINOLE/BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES WILL BE ESPECIALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  73  86  73 /  70  70  60  30
MCO  89  73  89  72 /  70  60  60  30
MLB  88  74  88  73 /  70  60  60  30
VRB  88  73  90  73 /  70  60  60  30
LEE  88  73  88  72 /  70  50  60  30
SFB  88  74  89  73 /  70  60  60  30
ORL  89  74  89  74 /  70  60  60  30
FPR  89  73  90  72 /  70  60  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL VOLUSIA-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-NORTHERN
     BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-
     SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KKEY 290732
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
332 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
KBYX RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW SMALL RELATIVELY WEAK ECHOES IN THE
STRAITS...AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER RETURNS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTHWEST
OF THE LOWER KEYS. SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND
CHAIN WITH A GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.

THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
TODAY...WHILE PRESSURES CLOSER TO NORTH FLORIDA DROP. THIS WILL ALLOW
THE FLOW TO SLACKEN LOCALLY...AND THE SLIGHTLY DRIER SLIVER JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST TO MODIFY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLY MOIST...AND UNSTABLE. CLOUD STREAKS EMANATING FROM THE
LARGER ISLANDS MAY FAVOR THE GULF WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A
CLOUD LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THANKS TO
WINDS DROPPING OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 10000 FEET AND ALIGNING
FAVORABLY ABOVE THAT. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO THE EXPECTED PARAMETERS THROUGH TODAY. THE
LIGHT FLOW AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ALOFT SHOULD CUT ACTIVITY BACK TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN GENERAL...THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM OUR CURRENT
FORECAST. THE ONLY MINOR GRIDDED CHANGE WAS TO ADJUST OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE CLOSER TO 90...ESPECIALLY AT MTH...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYTIME PERIODS.

A LIGHT WIND REGIME WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL A GOOD BET THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
LATE PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS A DEEPER WESTERLY
PROFILE BY LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...AS OPPOSED TO A NORTHWEST
OR EVEN NORTH FLOW FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY IN
THE YEAR TO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT OR LASTING MODIFICATIONS IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT A LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZE TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS. A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL KEEP LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES IN PLACE
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  89  80  89  80 / 30 20 30 20
MARATHON  89  80  89  81 / 30 20 30 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KTAE 290711
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Heavy Rainfall is Possible Today in South-Central Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Heavy rain has had a difficult time materializing across most of the
area, despite a tropical airmass in place with an upper trough
approaching. The main limiting factor seems to be the convective
complexes in the Gulf, which are disrupting low-level inflow into
our forecast area. Guidance has insisted since yesterday that this
will change as the thunderstorms over the Gulf weaken, but so far
that has not happened. The HRRR has been particularly bad with this
scenario, continually over-forecasting convection in our area in the
first few hours of its forecast for most of the night. Because of
this mesoscale issue, confidence remains low on the convective
evolution and rainfall amounts across the area for the remainder of
today. As long as significant convection remains over the Gulf, most
of the area will not see heavy rain with the exception of a few
points along the coast.

That being said, satellite imagery has shown some gradual weakening
of the MCS west of Tampa, and there has been a slow uptick in the
rain and embedded convective coverage closer to our coast. The
general movement of this has been more northerly rather than
easterly as well, so perhaps things are beginning to change a
little. However, the threat seems to have diminished enough across
the northwest portions of the area to cancel the watch there. Still
do not feel comfortable canceling the entire watch just yet though
as there still appears to be a window for heavy rainfall and
training echoes across portions of the area through this afternoon.
The greatest potential appears to be across the Florida counties
near the coast, but cannot completely discount portions of south
central Georgia either. As the morning progresses, the western
portions of the watch area may be able to be cancelled early, as
well as the northern portions if convection does not develop there
by mid to late morning. At any rate, we will be mostly rid of this
system in the next 24 hours, and good riddance as it has been a
tough one to forecast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Periods of rain and low cigs are expected
through most of the day with MVFR to IFR conditions. Some clearing
is expected around DHN and ECP by the end of the day as the rain
exits that area.


&&

.Marine...
A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


&&

.Hydrology...
We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  69  86  68  89 /  90  60  20  10  20
Panama City   83  70  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  10  20
Dothan        80  66  86  65  88 /  80  40  10  10  10
Albany        78  66  85  65  87 /  90  50  10  10  10
Valdosta      81  67  85  65  87 /  90  70  20  10  20
Cross City    83  70  86  67  88 /  90  60  30  20  20
Apalachicola  82  71  84  71  85 /  90  50  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 290711
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Heavy Rainfall is Possible Today in South-Central Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Heavy rain has had a difficult time materializing across most of the
area, despite a tropical airmass in place with an upper trough
approaching. The main limiting factor seems to be the convective
complexes in the Gulf, which are disrupting low-level inflow into
our forecast area. Guidance has insisted since yesterday that this
will change as the thunderstorms over the Gulf weaken, but so far
that has not happened. The HRRR has been particularly bad with this
scenario, continually over-forecasting convection in our area in the
first few hours of its forecast for most of the night. Because of
this mesoscale issue, confidence remains low on the convective
evolution and rainfall amounts across the area for the remainder of
today. As long as significant convection remains over the Gulf, most
of the area will not see heavy rain with the exception of a few
points along the coast.

That being said, satellite imagery has shown some gradual weakening
of the MCS west of Tampa, and there has been a slow uptick in the
rain and embedded convective coverage closer to our coast. The
general movement of this has been more northerly rather than
easterly as well, so perhaps things are beginning to change a
little. However, the threat seems to have diminished enough across
the northwest portions of the area to cancel the watch there. Still
do not feel comfortable canceling the entire watch just yet though
as there still appears to be a window for heavy rainfall and
training echoes across portions of the area through this afternoon.
The greatest potential appears to be across the Florida counties
near the coast, but cannot completely discount portions of south
central Georgia either. As the morning progresses, the western
portions of the watch area may be able to be cancelled early, as
well as the northern portions if convection does not develop there
by mid to late morning. At any rate, we will be mostly rid of this
system in the next 24 hours, and good riddance as it has been a
tough one to forecast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Periods of rain and low cigs are expected
through most of the day with MVFR to IFR conditions. Some clearing
is expected around DHN and ECP by the end of the day as the rain
exits that area.


&&

.Marine...
A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


&&

.Hydrology...
We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  69  86  68  89 /  90  60  20  10  20
Panama City   83  70  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  10  20
Dothan        80  66  86  65  88 /  80  40  10  10  10
Albany        78  66  85  65  87 /  90  50  10  10  10
Valdosta      81  67  85  65  87 /  90  70  20  10  20
Cross City    83  70  86  67  88 /  90  60  30  20  20
Apalachicola  82  71  84  71  85 /  90  50  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 290711
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Heavy Rainfall is Possible Today in South-Central Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Heavy rain has had a difficult time materializing across most of the
area, despite a tropical airmass in place with an upper trough
approaching. The main limiting factor seems to be the convective
complexes in the Gulf, which are disrupting low-level inflow into
our forecast area. Guidance has insisted since yesterday that this
will change as the thunderstorms over the Gulf weaken, but so far
that has not happened. The HRRR has been particularly bad with this
scenario, continually over-forecasting convection in our area in the
first few hours of its forecast for most of the night. Because of
this mesoscale issue, confidence remains low on the convective
evolution and rainfall amounts across the area for the remainder of
today. As long as significant convection remains over the Gulf, most
of the area will not see heavy rain with the exception of a few
points along the coast.

That being said, satellite imagery has shown some gradual weakening
of the MCS west of Tampa, and there has been a slow uptick in the
rain and embedded convective coverage closer to our coast. The
general movement of this has been more northerly rather than
easterly as well, so perhaps things are beginning to change a
little. However, the threat seems to have diminished enough across
the northwest portions of the area to cancel the watch there. Still
do not feel comfortable canceling the entire watch just yet though
as there still appears to be a window for heavy rainfall and
training echoes across portions of the area through this afternoon.
The greatest potential appears to be across the Florida counties
near the coast, but cannot completely discount portions of south
central Georgia either. As the morning progresses, the western
portions of the watch area may be able to be cancelled early, as
well as the northern portions if convection does not develop there
by mid to late morning. At any rate, we will be mostly rid of this
system in the next 24 hours, and good riddance as it has been a
tough one to forecast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Periods of rain and low cigs are expected
through most of the day with MVFR to IFR conditions. Some clearing
is expected around DHN and ECP by the end of the day as the rain
exits that area.


&&

.Marine...
A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


&&

.Hydrology...
We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  69  86  68  89 /  90  60  20  10  20
Panama City   83  70  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  10  20
Dothan        80  66  86  65  88 /  80  40  10  10  10
Albany        78  66  85  65  87 /  90  50  10  10  10
Valdosta      81  67  85  65  87 /  90  70  20  10  20
Cross City    83  70  86  67  88 /  90  60  30  20  20
Apalachicola  82  71  84  71  85 /  90  50  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 290711
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Heavy Rainfall is Possible Today in South-Central Georgia and
the Florida Big Bend...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Heavy rain has had a difficult time materializing across most of the
area, despite a tropical airmass in place with an upper trough
approaching. The main limiting factor seems to be the convective
complexes in the Gulf, which are disrupting low-level inflow into
our forecast area. Guidance has insisted since yesterday that this
will change as the thunderstorms over the Gulf weaken, but so far
that has not happened. The HRRR has been particularly bad with this
scenario, continually over-forecasting convection in our area in the
first few hours of its forecast for most of the night. Because of
this mesoscale issue, confidence remains low on the convective
evolution and rainfall amounts across the area for the remainder of
today. As long as significant convection remains over the Gulf, most
of the area will not see heavy rain with the exception of a few
points along the coast.

That being said, satellite imagery has shown some gradual weakening
of the MCS west of Tampa, and there has been a slow uptick in the
rain and embedded convective coverage closer to our coast. The
general movement of this has been more northerly rather than
easterly as well, so perhaps things are beginning to change a
little. However, the threat seems to have diminished enough across
the northwest portions of the area to cancel the watch there. Still
do not feel comfortable canceling the entire watch just yet though
as there still appears to be a window for heavy rainfall and
training echoes across portions of the area through this afternoon.
The greatest potential appears to be across the Florida counties
near the coast, but cannot completely discount portions of south
central Georgia either. As the morning progresses, the western
portions of the watch area may be able to be cancelled early, as
well as the northern portions if convection does not develop there
by mid to late morning. At any rate, we will be mostly rid of this
system in the next 24 hours, and good riddance as it has been a
tough one to forecast.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Periods of rain and low cigs are expected
through most of the day with MVFR to IFR conditions. Some clearing
is expected around DHN and ECP by the end of the day as the rain
exits that area.


&&

.Marine...
A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


&&

.Hydrology...
We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  69  86  68  89 /  90  60  20  10  20
Panama City   83  70  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  10  20
Dothan        80  66  86  65  88 /  80  40  10  10  10
Albany        78  66  85  65  87 /  90  50  10  10  10
Valdosta      81  67  85  65  87 /  90  70  20  10  20
Cross City    83  70  86  67  88 /  90  60  30  20  20
Apalachicola  82  71  84  71  85 /  90  50  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Bay-
     Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-
     Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin-
     Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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