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000
FXUS62 KJAX 010221
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1021 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT PLOWED THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND CONTINUED EASTWARD THROUGH THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
REPORTED IN THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
MCS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING WITHIN THE DEEP W/SW
FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS POTENT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN NORTH
CENTRAL FL. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY
MIGRATES TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER 90S BEFORE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE TEMPO 3SM BR IN NE FL TAFS BETWEEN 07Z-11Z.
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCTS
AFTER 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN EVENING OFFSHORE WIND SURGE ONLY
GRADUALLY WANES. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRIEFLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. EVENING WIND SURGES MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
CAUTION CONDITIONS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AGAIN WED-FRI...WHERE
SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES IN THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  73  93 /  40  30  30  50
SSI  75  92  77  89 /  20  30  40  30
JAX  74  93  73  93 /  30  40  40  50
SGJ  74  91  76  91 /  30  40  40  40
GNV  72  91  73  93 /  60  40  30  50
OCF  73  92  73  92 /  60  40  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/ZIBURA/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KJAX 010221
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1021 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT PLOWED THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND CONTINUED EASTWARD THROUGH THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
REPORTED IN THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
MCS HAS FINALLY WEAKENED OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS SLOWLY DISSIPATING OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. DEBRIS
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS...WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S EXPECTED. SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING WITHIN THE DEEP W/SW
FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS POTENT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN NORTH
CENTRAL FL. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ACTIVITY
MIGRATES TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE LOWER 90S BEFORE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT. HAVE TEMPO 3SM BR IN NE FL TAFS BETWEEN 07Z-11Z.
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCTS
AFTER 18Z AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN EVENING OFFSHORE WIND SURGE ONLY
GRADUALLY WANES. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRIEFLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS. EVENING WIND SURGES MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
CAUTION CONDITIONS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AGAIN WED-FRI...WHERE
SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES IN THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW
PATTERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  73  93 /  40  30  30  50
SSI  75  92  77  89 /  20  30  40  30
JAX  74  93  73  93 /  30  40  40  50
SGJ  74  91  76  91 /  30  40  40  40
GNV  72  91  73  93 /  60  40  30  50
OCF  73  92  73  92 /  60  40  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/ZIBURA/WALKER



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 010157
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
955 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE
WISE...A VERY MODEST WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING CONTINUES
TO REVEAL EXTREMELY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BACKING TO NORTHEAST ABOVE 850 MB...BEFORE TURNING MOSTLY
SOUTH AND INCREASING ABOVE 500 MB.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...WITH THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LOW
AND MID LAYERS. HENCE...ONLY ISOLATED DIME POPS WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S SEEMS ON TRACK.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/1ST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 2010...KEY WEST EXPERIENCED ITS WARMEST JUNE EVER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL/AVIATION/...APA
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 010157
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
955 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE
WISE...A VERY MODEST WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING CONTINUES
TO REVEAL EXTREMELY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BACKING TO NORTHEAST ABOVE 850 MB...BEFORE TURNING MOSTLY
SOUTH AND INCREASING ABOVE 500 MB.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...WITH THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LOW
AND MID LAYERS. HENCE...ONLY ISOLATED DIME POPS WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S SEEMS ON TRACK.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/1ST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 2010...KEY WEST EXPERIENCED ITS WARMEST JUNE EVER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL/AVIATION/...APA
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 010157
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
955 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. SURFACE
WISE...A VERY MODEST WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTH FLORIDA RESULTING IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
ON OUR MARINE DISTRICT. OTHERWISE...OUR EVENING SOUNDING CONTINUES
TO REVEAL EXTREMELY DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS BACKING TO NORTHEAST ABOVE 850 MB...BEFORE TURNING MOSTLY
SOUTH AND INCREASING ABOVE 500 MB.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...WITH THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE ALIGNED ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST IN THE ALL IMPORTANT LOW
AND MID LAYERS. HENCE...ONLY ISOLATED DIME POPS WITH TEMPERATURES
HOLDING MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S SEEMS ON TRACK.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/1ST...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 2010...KEY WEST EXPERIENCED ITS WARMEST JUNE EVER. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1872.

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL/AVIATION/...APA
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 010143
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
943 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST IN
WESTERLY FLOW WITH OTHER STORMS THAT FORMED EARLIER ON BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS NOW EXITING HIGHLANDS COUNTY TO THE EAST. EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER
THE NATURE COAST IN WEST FLOW...SO WILL LEAVE A LOW POP IN PLACE
FOR THOSE REGIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST AND WILL SEND UPDATED ZONES SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA SITES AND KLAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR
OTHER SITES TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE
AXIS HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD SOME...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE NATURE COAST BUT WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST
CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  78  92 /  10  20  10  30
FMY  76  95  76  94 /  10  50  10  40
GIF  76  95  76  95 /  20  30  10  40
SRQ  77  92  77  91 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  73  93  72  92 /  20  20  10  30
SPG  80  92  80  91 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...05/CARLISLE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 010143
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
943 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST IN
WESTERLY FLOW WITH OTHER STORMS THAT FORMED EARLIER ON BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS NOW EXITING HIGHLANDS COUNTY TO THE EAST. EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER
THE NATURE COAST IN WEST FLOW...SO WILL LEAVE A LOW POP IN PLACE
FOR THOSE REGIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST AND WILL SEND UPDATED ZONES SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CAUSE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA SITES AND KLAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR
OTHER SITES TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE
AXIS HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD SOME...SO WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY TOWARD THE NATURE COAST BUT WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST
CLOSER TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  78  92 /  10  20  10  30
FMY  76  95  76  94 /  10  50  10  40
GIF  76  95  76  95 /  20  30  10  40
SRQ  77  92  77  91 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  73  93  72  92 /  20  20  10  30
SPG  80  92  80  91 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...05/CARLISLE



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTAE 010141
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY ON RADAR WITH THREE ROUNDS OVER SEVERE
WEATHER, THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN. IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO
BEFORE WE CAN COMPILE ALL OF THE DAMAGE REPORTS THAT HAVE AND WILL
COME IN. THANKS TO ALL THAT SENT OR CALLED IN REPORTS. CAMS
INDICATE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, WE
ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF WITH THOSE STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. BOTTOM LINE, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. NO EXPECTING ANY MORE
SEVERE THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS OF 01Z. EXPECT
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT ABY/VLD/TLH BEFORE SUNRISE. GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ECP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO VCTS
GROUPS WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [414 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA-BREEZE REGIME
TYPE 5 KEEPING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME POPS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WEAKENS. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHETHER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
MONDAY OR IF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APALACHIANS
(AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS) KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH UNSETTLED. FOR NOW, OPTED FOR A FORECAST CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH FEATURES POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S.


.MARINE...
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND REDUCING WINDS AND SEAS TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES TO AREAS RIVERS AND
STREAMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST AREAS WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  93  75  94  76 /  20  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   78  88  80  89  79 /  20  30  20  40  20
DOTHAN        72  92  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        72  93  74  94  74 /  30  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      73  94  75  94  74 /  20  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    75  92  76  92  75 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



000
FXUS62 KTAE 010141
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY ON RADAR WITH THREE ROUNDS OVER SEVERE
WEATHER, THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN. IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO
BEFORE WE CAN COMPILE ALL OF THE DAMAGE REPORTS THAT HAVE AND WILL
COME IN. THANKS TO ALL THAT SENT OR CALLED IN REPORTS. CAMS
INDICATE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, WE
ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF WITH THOSE STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. BOTTOM LINE, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. NO EXPECTING ANY MORE
SEVERE THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS OF 01Z. EXPECT
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT ABY/VLD/TLH BEFORE SUNRISE. GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ECP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO VCTS
GROUPS WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [414 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA-BREEZE REGIME
TYPE 5 KEEPING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME POPS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WEAKENS. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHETHER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
MONDAY OR IF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APALACHIANS
(AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS) KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH UNSETTLED. FOR NOW, OPTED FOR A FORECAST CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH FEATURES POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S.


.MARINE...
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND REDUCING WINDS AND SEAS TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES TO AREAS RIVERS AND
STREAMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST AREAS WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  93  75  94  76 /  20  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   78  88  80  89  79 /  20  30  20  40  20
DOTHAN        72  92  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        72  93  74  94  74 /  30  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      73  94  75  94  74 /  20  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    75  92  76  92  75 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 010141
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY ON RADAR WITH THREE ROUNDS OVER SEVERE
WEATHER, THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN. IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO
BEFORE WE CAN COMPILE ALL OF THE DAMAGE REPORTS THAT HAVE AND WILL
COME IN. THANKS TO ALL THAT SENT OR CALLED IN REPORTS. CAMS
INDICATE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, WE
ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF WITH THOSE STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. BOTTOM LINE, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. NO EXPECTING ANY MORE
SEVERE THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS OF 01Z. EXPECT
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT ABY/VLD/TLH BEFORE SUNRISE. GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ECP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO VCTS
GROUPS WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [414 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA-BREEZE REGIME
TYPE 5 KEEPING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME POPS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WEAKENS. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHETHER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
MONDAY OR IF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APALACHIANS
(AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS) KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH UNSETTLED. FOR NOW, OPTED FOR A FORECAST CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH FEATURES POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S.


.MARINE...
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND REDUCING WINDS AND SEAS TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES TO AREAS RIVERS AND
STREAMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST AREAS WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  93  75  94  76 /  20  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   78  88  80  89  79 /  20  30  20  40  20
DOTHAN        72  92  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        72  93  74  94  74 /  30  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      73  94  75  94  74 /  20  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    75  92  76  92  75 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 010141
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY ON RADAR WITH THREE ROUNDS OVER SEVERE
WEATHER, THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN. IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO
BEFORE WE CAN COMPILE ALL OF THE DAMAGE REPORTS THAT HAVE AND WILL
COME IN. THANKS TO ALL THAT SENT OR CALLED IN REPORTS. CAMS
INDICATE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, WE
ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF WITH THOSE STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. BOTTOM LINE, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. NO EXPECTING ANY MORE
SEVERE THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS OF 01Z. EXPECT
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT ABY/VLD/TLH BEFORE SUNRISE. GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ECP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO VCTS
GROUPS WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [414 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA-BREEZE REGIME
TYPE 5 KEEPING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME POPS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WEAKENS. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHETHER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
MONDAY OR IF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APALACHIANS
(AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS) KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH UNSETTLED. FOR NOW, OPTED FOR A FORECAST CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH FEATURES POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S.


.MARINE...
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND REDUCING WINDS AND SEAS TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES TO AREAS RIVERS AND
STREAMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST AREAS WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  93  75  94  76 /  20  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   78  88  80  89  79 /  20  30  20  40  20
DOTHAN        72  92  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        72  93  74  94  74 /  30  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      73  94  75  94  74 /  20  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    75  92  76  92  75 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 010141
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY ON RADAR WITH THREE ROUNDS OVER SEVERE
WEATHER, THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN. IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO
BEFORE WE CAN COMPILE ALL OF THE DAMAGE REPORTS THAT HAVE AND WILL
COME IN. THANKS TO ALL THAT SENT OR CALLED IN REPORTS. CAMS
INDICATE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, WE
ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF WITH THOSE STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. BOTTOM LINE, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. NO EXPECTING ANY MORE
SEVERE THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS OF 01Z. EXPECT
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT ABY/VLD/TLH BEFORE SUNRISE. GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ECP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO VCTS
GROUPS WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [414 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA-BREEZE REGIME
TYPE 5 KEEPING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME POPS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WEAKENS. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHETHER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
MONDAY OR IF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APALACHIANS
(AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS) KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH UNSETTLED. FOR NOW, OPTED FOR A FORECAST CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH FEATURES POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S.


.MARINE...
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND REDUCING WINDS AND SEAS TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES TO AREAS RIVERS AND
STREAMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST AREAS WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  93  75  94  76 /  20  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   78  88  80  89  79 /  20  30  20  40  20
DOTHAN        72  92  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        72  93  74  94  74 /  30  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      73  94  75  94  74 /  20  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    75  92  76  92  75 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 010141
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
941 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
AFTER A VERY BUSY DAY ON RADAR WITH THREE ROUNDS OVER SEVERE
WEATHER, THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN. IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER DAY OR TWO
BEFORE WE CAN COMPILE ALL OF THE DAMAGE REPORTS THAT HAVE AND WILL
COME IN. THANKS TO ALL THAT SENT OR CALLED IN REPORTS. CAMS
INDICATE SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT
AND RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, WE
ALSO EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE GULF WITH THOSE STORMS MOVING
ASHORE INTO OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. BOTTOM LINE, SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. NO EXPECTING ANY MORE
SEVERE THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING AS OF 01Z. EXPECT
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT ABY/VLD/TLH BEFORE SUNRISE. GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR ECP SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SO VCTS
GROUPS WERE USED FOR THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [414 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA-BREEZE REGIME
TYPE 5 KEEPING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME POPS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WEAKENS. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHETHER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
MONDAY OR IF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APALACHIANS
(AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS) KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH UNSETTLED. FOR NOW, OPTED FOR A FORECAST CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH FEATURES POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S.


.MARINE...
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND REDUCING WINDS AND SEAS TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES TO AREAS RIVERS AND
STREAMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST AREAS WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  93  75  94  76 /  20  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   78  88  80  89  79 /  20  30  20  40  20
DOTHAN        72  92  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        72  93  74  94  74 /  30  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      73  94  75  94  74 /  20  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    75  92  76  92  75 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 010137
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT FROM EARLIER TAMPA
SOUNDING KEPT STORMS FROM POPPING NORTHWARD TODAY BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS SOUTHWARD HAVE PROMOTED GROWTH OF STRONG STORMS WITH
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DECREASE/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL UPDATE ZONES LATER TO CLEAN UP FIRST
PERIOD WORDING.

WED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY
BE DELAYED WITH LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
THE DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER
GUIDANCE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KMCO
THRU THE TREASURE COAST. FEW SHRA`S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THINNING
CLOUDS.

WED...ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-WED...RIDGE AXIS STILL SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT
CREEPS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE DAY ON WED.
S/SW WINDS INTO WED...BACKING TO ESE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ECSB FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15
KTS OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC FALLING BACK TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
EARLY ON WED.

ALSO THIS EVENING...FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS FORT PIERCE
SOUTHWARD THRU LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 010137
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT FROM EARLIER TAMPA
SOUNDING KEPT STORMS FROM POPPING NORTHWARD TODAY BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS SOUTHWARD HAVE PROMOTED GROWTH OF STRONG STORMS WITH
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DECREASE/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL UPDATE ZONES LATER TO CLEAN UP FIRST
PERIOD WORDING.

WED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY
BE DELAYED WITH LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
THE DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER
GUIDANCE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KMCO
THRU THE TREASURE COAST. FEW SHRA`S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THINNING
CLOUDS.

WED...ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-WED...RIDGE AXIS STILL SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT
CREEPS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE DAY ON WED.
S/SW WINDS INTO WED...BACKING TO ESE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ECSB FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15
KTS OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC FALLING BACK TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
EARLY ON WED.

ALSO THIS EVENING...FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS FORT PIERCE
SOUTHWARD THRU LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 010137
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT FROM EARLIER TAMPA
SOUNDING KEPT STORMS FROM POPPING NORTHWARD TODAY BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS SOUTHWARD HAVE PROMOTED GROWTH OF STRONG STORMS WITH
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DECREASE/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL UPDATE ZONES LATER TO CLEAN UP FIRST
PERIOD WORDING.

WED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY
BE DELAYED WITH LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
THE DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER
GUIDANCE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KMCO
THRU THE TREASURE COAST. FEW SHRA`S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THINNING
CLOUDS.

WED...ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-WED...RIDGE AXIS STILL SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT
CREEPS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE DAY ON WED.
S/SW WINDS INTO WED...BACKING TO ESE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ECSB FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15
KTS OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC FALLING BACK TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
EARLY ON WED.

ALSO THIS EVENING...FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS FORT PIERCE
SOUTHWARD THRU LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 010137
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT AS EVIDENT FROM EARLIER TAMPA
SOUNDING KEPT STORMS FROM POPPING NORTHWARD TODAY BUT STRONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS SOUTHWARD HAVE PROMOTED GROWTH OF STRONG STORMS WITH
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AS WELL.
EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DECREASE/DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL UPDATE ZONES LATER TO CLEAN UP FIRST
PERIOD WORDING.

WED...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW
LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY
BE DELAYED WITH LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE
THE DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER
GUIDANCE WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...STRONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS EVENING SOUTH OF KMCO
THRU THE TREASURE COAST. FEW SHRA`S ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR THRU THIS
EVENING BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH THINNING
CLOUDS.

WED...ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER
OFFSHORE FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-WED...RIDGE AXIS STILL SOUTH OF THE WATERS BUT
CREEPS BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE DURING THE DAY ON WED.
S/SW WINDS INTO WED...BACKING TO ESE ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH ECSB FORMATION. WIND SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 15
KTS OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC FALLING BACK TO AROUND 5-10 KTS
EARLY ON WED.

ALSO THIS EVENING...FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS FORT PIERCE
SOUTHWARD THRU LATE EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 302332
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR ON WED AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. THUS, MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  10  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  93  76  93 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 302332
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR ON WED AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. THUS, MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  10  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  93  76  93 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KTAE 302014
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
414 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 9 PM ET THIS EVENING. INTERESTING EVOLUTION OF STORMS
TODAY WITH THE FIRST BATCH DEVELOPING IN A MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME THAT WAS FAIRLY UNSTABLE. EVEN WITH THIS FIRST BATCH
OF STORMS PROVIDING FOR SOME STABILIZATION, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA STILL INTENSIFIED MOVING
EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 20Z SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA ON A WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH SOME HEATING
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30KT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND MAINTAIN THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNSET. HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA-BREEZE REGIME
TYPE 5 KEEPING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME POPS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WEAKENS. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHETHER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
MONDAY OR IF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APALACHIANS
(AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS) KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH UNSETTLED. FOR NOW, OPTED FOR A FORECAST CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH FEATURES POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE ECP/ABY
TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z. STORMS MAY APPROACH TLH IN THE EARLY
EVENING, LINGERING PERHAPS AS LATE AS 02Z. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THEREAFTER. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS BEFORE SUNRISE AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT DHN/ECP. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF ECP AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SO INCLUDED A VCTS GROUP AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND REDUCING WINDS AND SEAS TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES TO AREAS RIVERS AND
STREAMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST AREAS WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   75  93  75  94  76 /  30  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   79  88  80  89  79 /  30  30  20  40  20
DOTHAN        72  92  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        72  93  74  94  74 /  50  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      73  94  75  94  74 /  40  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    75  92  76  92  75 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 302014
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
414 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 9 PM ET THIS EVENING. INTERESTING EVOLUTION OF STORMS
TODAY WITH THE FIRST BATCH DEVELOPING IN A MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME THAT WAS FAIRLY UNSTABLE. EVEN WITH THIS FIRST BATCH
OF STORMS PROVIDING FOR SOME STABILIZATION, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA STILL INTENSIFIED MOVING
EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 20Z SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA ON A WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH SOME HEATING
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30KT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND MAINTAIN THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNSET. HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA-BREEZE REGIME
TYPE 5 KEEPING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME POPS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WEAKENS. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHETHER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
MONDAY OR IF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APALACHIANS
(AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS) KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH UNSETTLED. FOR NOW, OPTED FOR A FORECAST CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH FEATURES POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE ECP/ABY
TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z. STORMS MAY APPROACH TLH IN THE EARLY
EVENING, LINGERING PERHAPS AS LATE AS 02Z. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THEREAFTER. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS BEFORE SUNRISE AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT DHN/ECP. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF ECP AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SO INCLUDED A VCTS GROUP AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND REDUCING WINDS AND SEAS TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES TO AREAS RIVERS AND
STREAMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST AREAS WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   75  93  75  94  76 /  30  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   79  88  80  89  79 /  30  30  20  40  20
DOTHAN        72  92  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        72  93  74  94  74 /  50  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      73  94  75  94  74 /  40  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    75  92  76  92  75 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 302014
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
414 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 9 PM ET THIS EVENING. INTERESTING EVOLUTION OF STORMS
TODAY WITH THE FIRST BATCH DEVELOPING IN A MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME THAT WAS FAIRLY UNSTABLE. EVEN WITH THIS FIRST BATCH
OF STORMS PROVIDING FOR SOME STABILIZATION, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA STILL INTENSIFIED MOVING
EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 20Z SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA ON A WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH SOME HEATING
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30KT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND MAINTAIN THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNSET. HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA-BREEZE REGIME
TYPE 5 KEEPING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME POPS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WEAKENS. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHETHER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
MONDAY OR IF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APALACHIANS
(AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS) KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH UNSETTLED. FOR NOW, OPTED FOR A FORECAST CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH FEATURES POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE ECP/ABY
TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z. STORMS MAY APPROACH TLH IN THE EARLY
EVENING, LINGERING PERHAPS AS LATE AS 02Z. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THEREAFTER. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS BEFORE SUNRISE AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT DHN/ECP. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF ECP AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SO INCLUDED A VCTS GROUP AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND REDUCING WINDS AND SEAS TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES TO AREAS RIVERS AND
STREAMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST AREAS WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   75  93  75  94  76 /  30  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   79  88  80  89  79 /  30  30  20  40  20
DOTHAN        72  92  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        72  93  74  94  74 /  50  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      73  94  75  94  74 /  40  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    75  92  76  92  75 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 302014
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
414 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH 9 PM ET THIS EVENING. INTERESTING EVOLUTION OF STORMS
TODAY WITH THE FIRST BATCH DEVELOPING IN A MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME THAT WAS FAIRLY UNSTABLE. EVEN WITH THIS FIRST BATCH
OF STORMS PROVIDING FOR SOME STABILIZATION, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF STORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA STILL INTENSIFIED MOVING
EASTWARD. SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 20Z SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS
ADVANCING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA ON A WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. WITH SOME HEATING
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, EXPECT ADDITIONAL STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 30KT
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND MAINTAIN THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR A COUPLE HOURS PAST SUNSET. HI RES
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 03Z WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN TODAY. THE BERMUDA
HIGH WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR CWA CAUSING SURFACE WINDS TO BE OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SEA-BREEZE REGIME
TYPE 5 KEEPING THE HIGHEST DAYTIME POPS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE REGION AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
WEAKENS. THERE`S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHETHER THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE BY
MONDAY OR IF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APALACHIANS
(AS SHOWN IN THE 12Z GFS) KEEPS THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH UNSETTLED. FOR NOW, OPTED FOR A FORECAST CLOSER TO
CLIMATOLOGY WHICH FEATURES POPS IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AFFECTING THE ECP/ABY
TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z. STORMS MAY APPROACH TLH IN THE EARLY
EVENING, LINGERING PERHAPS AS LATE AS 02Z. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THEREAFTER. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS BEFORE SUNRISE AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT DHN/ECP. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF ECP AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, SO INCLUDED A VCTS GROUP AFTER 13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD NEAR THE MARINE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND REDUCING WINDS AND SEAS TO TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS RESULTED IN MINOR RISES TO AREAS RIVERS AND
STREAMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST AREAS WELL BELOW ACTION STAGES, DO NOT
EXPECT ANY FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   75  93  75  94  76 /  30  40  30  40  20
PANAMA CITY   79  88  80  89  79 /  30  30  20  40  20
DOTHAN        72  92  74  93  74 /  40  30  30  40  20
ALBANY        72  93  74  94  74 /  50  40  30  40  20
VALDOSTA      73  94  75  94  74 /  40  40  30  40  20
CROSS CITY    75  92  76  92  75 /  20  40  30  40  20
APALACHICOLA  79  88  79  88  79 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CHANEY/GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  77  92 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  93  76  93 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 301938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  77  92 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  93  76  93 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  77  92 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  93  76  93 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KTBW 301911
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
311 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A LARGE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER UT WHILE TROUGHING WAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHED ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA.
SURFACE - A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT FROM THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE KEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE CENTER HOLDS IN PLACE AS IT SPRAWLS OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES BUT
EASES NORTHWARD AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING SOUTH OF FL/ THE UPPER
AND SURFACE RIDGES NOTED IN THE PRECEDING SECTION/ LIFT NORTH UP
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS REACHES CENTRAL OR SOUTH-CENTRAL FL BY WED
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ONGOING BUT RATHER SPARSE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVING EAST...EXPECT IT TO EXIT BY EARLY EVENING. WED WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING
APPROACHES. THERE WILL SOME LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON THE GULF THAT PROPAGATE INLAND DURING THE DAY. FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD...NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEND TO PUSH THE
SHOWERS/STORMS INLAND. SOUTH OF THERE THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER AS IT BEGINS TO VEER THROUGH THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A SEA BREEZE BUT WITH LESS IMPACT SO CONVECTION
STAYS CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN 1.6 TO 1.9
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS. THE TEMPERATURES RUN
NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF WAVE PERIOD
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN EARLY CONVECTION
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AND LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND WITH PREDOMINATE ALBEIT WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW
ENABLING BOTH EAST AND WEST SEA BREEZES TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST
AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION. DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

AVIATION...
30/18Z-01/18Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH LCL BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...
BLOW-OFF FROM SCT CB OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECT
TSRA TO REMAIN EAST OF TERMINALS FOR THE MOST PART. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A STRAY TSRA DRIFTING BACK TO THE WEST COAST ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

&&

MARINE...
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA GRADUALLY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR THE KEYS MOVES TO NORTH-CENTRAL FL FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS CONTINUING NORTH OF THE AXIS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS AND USUALLY LESS. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY CONCERNS ABOUT LOW RH VALUES.
HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  78  92 /  10  20  10  30
FMY  76  95  76  94 /  10  50  10  40
GIF  76  95  76  95 /   0  30  10  40
SRQ  77  92  77  91 /   0  20  10  30
BKV  73  93  72  92 /  10  20  10  30
SPG  80  92  80  91 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...10/LAMARRE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 301911
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
311 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A LARGE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER UT WHILE TROUGHING WAS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHED ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA.
SURFACE - A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT FROM THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGED THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE KEY INTO THE MIDDLE GULF
OF MEXICO.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REMAINDER OF TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE WESTERN RIDGE CENTER HOLDS IN PLACE AS IT SPRAWLS OUT ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN. TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES BUT
EASES NORTHWARD AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING SOUTH OF FL/ THE UPPER
AND SURFACE RIDGES NOTED IN THE PRECEDING SECTION/ LIFT NORTH UP
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS REACHES CENTRAL OR SOUTH-CENTRAL FL BY WED
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ONGOING BUT RATHER SPARSE THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVING EAST...EXPECT IT TO EXIT BY EARLY EVENING. WED WILL BE A
TRANSITION DAY AS THE SURFACE PORTION OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING
APPROACHES. THERE WILL SOME LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON THE GULF THAT PROPAGATE INLAND DURING THE DAY. FROM
AROUND TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD...NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEND TO PUSH THE
SHOWERS/STORMS INLAND. SOUTH OF THERE THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE
LIGHTER AS IT BEGINS TO VEER THROUGH THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE A SEA BREEZE BUT WITH LESS IMPACT SO CONVECTION
STAYS CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN 1.6 TO 1.9
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS. THE TEMPERATURES RUN
NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL...BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS
WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE WESTERN RIDGE-EASTERN TROF WAVE PERIOD
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE
SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL MAINTAIN EARLY CONVECTION
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD AND LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH
NORTHWARD THIS WEEKEND WITH PREDOMINATE ALBEIT WEAK SOUTHEAST FLOW
ENABLING BOTH EAST AND WEST SEA BREEZES TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST
AS TYPICAL THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION. DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE SEASONAL
VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

AVIATION...
30/18Z-01/18Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH LCL BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS...
BLOW-OFF FROM SCT CB OVER THE INTERIOR. WITH WESTERLY FLOW EXPECT
TSRA TO REMAIN EAST OF TERMINALS FOR THE MOST PART. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A STRAY TSRA DRIFTING BACK TO THE WEST COAST ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH BUT THE ODDS ARE LOW AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS.

&&

MARINE...
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA GRADUALLY BACK
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
NEAR THE KEYS MOVES TO NORTH-CENTRAL FL FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWEST OR WEST WINDS CONTINUING NORTH OF THE AXIS. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE NO MORE THAN 15 KNOTS AND USUALLY LESS. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...
AMPLE MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE ANY CONCERNS ABOUT LOW RH VALUES.
HOWEVER THIS MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  79  93  78  92 /  10  20  10  30
FMY  76  95  76  94 /  10  50  10  40
GIF  76  95  76  95 /   0  30  10  40
SRQ  77  92  77  91 /   0  20  10  30
BKV  73  93  72  92 /  10  20  10  30
SPG  80  92  80  91 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...10/LAMARRE




000
FXUS62 KMLB 301859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT THAT WAS EVIDENT IN THE MORNING
SOUNDING FROM TAMPA HAS KEEP CONVECTION LIMITED SO FAR THIS AFT AS
IT HAS SPREAD EASTWARD. HRRR MODEL STILL INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER
END WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ALONG THE COAST INTO LATE AFT AND
SUNSET. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
OCCUR ALONG THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
ANY PRECIP WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE EARLY EVE WITH RAIN CHANCES
ENDING FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY.

WED...MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP ATL RIDGE
AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WED. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM ALONG
MUCH OF THE COAST. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL LIKELY BE DELAYED WITH
LITTLE INLAND MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE
NORTHWARD. MOS POPS VARY FOR TOMORROW WITH GFS/MAV GUIDANCE THE
DRIER OUTLIER FROM THE NAM AND ECMWF MOS. LOOKS LIKE THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISO-SCT SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE IN THE AFT SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE LATTER GUIDANCE WITH
POPS RANGING FROM 30-40 PERCENT. BEST CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
AND ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE
BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE
COAST TO MID 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

THU-FRI...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A
POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE
TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET
DUE TO THE NEED FOR SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE
ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS
GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.

SAT-MON...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN DRIFTING NEAR
TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MARINE BASED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH AT LEAST SEASONALLY TO LOW END
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...STORM COVERAGE HAS REMAINED LIMITED DUE TO DRIER AIR
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. MAY STILL SEE ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
TOWARD THE COAST INTO LATE AFT/EARLY EVE...ESPECIALLY WITH BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS FROM KVRB-KSUA. ANY CONVECTION THAT FORMS WILL DIMINISH
AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE EVE WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING ACROSS THE
AREA.

ISO/SCT AFT SHRA/TSRA FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFT. SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST DUE TO A WEAKER OFFSHORE
FLOW. GREATEST STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COASTS LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 1-3
FEET. A FEW OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.

WED-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST S OF
THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO
WLY COMPONENT WITH A LIMITED SEA BREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING
OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS WED-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  93  74  93 /  20  40  20  40
MCO  74  95  75  94 /  10  40  20  50
MLB  73  92  75  92 /  20  40  30  30
VRB  72  93  75  92 /  30  30  30  30
LEE  75  94  76  94 /  10  40  20  40
SFB  74  95  76  94 /  20  40  20  40
ORL  75  95  77  94 /  10  40  20  50
FPR  71  93  74  92 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH/ULRICH
AVIATION...WEITLICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER



000
FXUS62 KKEY 301821
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ON THE KEY WEST RADAR WE CAN FIND ONLY ONE LONE SHOWERS NEAR THE
MARATHON HUMPS. SKIES REMAIN HAZY ALOFT WITH SOME ALTOCUMULUS SPREAD
ACROSS THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT INDEX THIS AFTERNOON IS
AROUND 105 DEGREES SO KEEP HYDRATED. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE KEYS AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS
ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE MARINE
REPORTING STATIONS...AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS. THE LOW AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS
MORNING WAS 84 DEGREES...AND IF THIS HOLD WILL BE A RECORD WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON JUNE 30TH.

.FORECAST...
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS SLIDING NORTHWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING
AND THE RESULT IS WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFT TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HAZE IS DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVING OVER
THE AREA AND IS HELPING SUBDUE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS WITH AT LEAST SOME GUSTY
WINDS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARD THE KEYS. A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND GAIN LATITUDE
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS WILL COUNT ON INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE LESS CHANCE DUE TO MUCH
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LAYERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT THIS
TIME AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND TURN EASTERLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1966...2.12 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 30TH...WHICH STANDS 49 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  90  82  89 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  81  91  82  91 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301821
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ON THE KEY WEST RADAR WE CAN FIND ONLY ONE LONE SHOWERS NEAR THE
MARATHON HUMPS. SKIES REMAIN HAZY ALOFT WITH SOME ALTOCUMULUS SPREAD
ACROSS THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT INDEX THIS AFTERNOON IS
AROUND 105 DEGREES SO KEEP HYDRATED. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE KEYS AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS
ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE MARINE
REPORTING STATIONS...AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS. THE LOW AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS
MORNING WAS 84 DEGREES...AND IF THIS HOLD WILL BE A RECORD WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON JUNE 30TH.

.FORECAST...
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS SLIDING NORTHWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING
AND THE RESULT IS WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFT TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HAZE IS DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVING OVER
THE AREA AND IS HELPING SUBDUE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS WITH AT LEAST SOME GUSTY
WINDS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARD THE KEYS. A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND GAIN LATITUDE
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS WILL COUNT ON INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE LESS CHANCE DUE TO MUCH
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LAYERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT THIS
TIME AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND TURN EASTERLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1966...2.12 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 30TH...WHICH STANDS 49 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  90  82  89 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  81  91  82  91 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301821
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ON THE KEY WEST RADAR WE CAN FIND ONLY ONE LONE SHOWERS NEAR THE
MARATHON HUMPS. SKIES REMAIN HAZY ALOFT WITH SOME ALTOCUMULUS SPREAD
ACROSS THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT INDEX THIS AFTERNOON IS
AROUND 105 DEGREES SO KEEP HYDRATED. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE KEYS AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS
ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE MARINE
REPORTING STATIONS...AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS. THE LOW AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS
MORNING WAS 84 DEGREES...AND IF THIS HOLD WILL BE A RECORD WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON JUNE 30TH.

.FORECAST...
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS SLIDING NORTHWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING
AND THE RESULT IS WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFT TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HAZE IS DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVING OVER
THE AREA AND IS HELPING SUBDUE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS WITH AT LEAST SOME GUSTY
WINDS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARD THE KEYS. A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND GAIN LATITUDE
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS WILL COUNT ON INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE LESS CHANCE DUE TO MUCH
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LAYERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT THIS
TIME AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND TURN EASTERLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1966...2.12 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 30TH...WHICH STANDS 49 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  90  82  89 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  81  91  82  91 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301821
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ON THE KEY WEST RADAR WE CAN FIND ONLY ONE LONE SHOWERS NEAR THE
MARATHON HUMPS. SKIES REMAIN HAZY ALOFT WITH SOME ALTOCUMULUS SPREAD
ACROSS THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT INDEX THIS AFTERNOON IS
AROUND 105 DEGREES SO KEEP HYDRATED. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE KEYS AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS
ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE MARINE
REPORTING STATIONS...AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS. THE LOW AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS
MORNING WAS 84 DEGREES...AND IF THIS HOLD WILL BE A RECORD WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON JUNE 30TH.

.FORECAST...
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS SLIDING NORTHWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING
AND THE RESULT IS WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFT TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HAZE IS DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVING OVER
THE AREA AND IS HELPING SUBDUE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS WITH AT LEAST SOME GUSTY
WINDS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARD THE KEYS. A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND GAIN LATITUDE
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS WILL COUNT ON INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE LESS CHANCE DUE TO MUCH
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LAYERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT THIS
TIME AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND TURN EASTERLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1966...2.12 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 30TH...WHICH STANDS 49 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  90  82  89 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  81  91  82  91 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 301821
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ON THE KEY WEST RADAR WE CAN FIND ONLY ONE LONE SHOWERS NEAR THE
MARATHON HUMPS. SKIES REMAIN HAZY ALOFT WITH SOME ALTOCUMULUS SPREAD
ACROSS THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT INDEX THIS AFTERNOON IS
AROUND 105 DEGREES SO KEEP HYDRATED. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE KEYS AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS
ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE MARINE
REPORTING STATIONS...AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS. THE LOW AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS
MORNING WAS 84 DEGREES...AND IF THIS HOLD WILL BE A RECORD WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON JUNE 30TH.

.FORECAST...
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS SLIDING NORTHWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING
AND THE RESULT IS WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFT TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HAZE IS DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVING OVER
THE AREA AND IS HELPING SUBDUE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS WITH AT LEAST SOME GUSTY
WINDS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARD THE KEYS. A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND GAIN LATITUDE
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS WILL COUNT ON INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE LESS CHANCE DUE TO MUCH
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LAYERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT THIS
TIME AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND TURN EASTERLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1966...2.12 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 30TH...WHICH STANDS 49 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  90  82  89 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  81  91  82  91 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301821
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
221 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ON THE KEY WEST RADAR WE CAN FIND ONLY ONE LONE SHOWERS NEAR THE
MARATHON HUMPS. SKIES REMAIN HAZY ALOFT WITH SOME ALTOCUMULUS SPREAD
ACROSS THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT INDEX THIS AFTERNOON IS
AROUND 105 DEGREES SO KEEP HYDRATED. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE KEYS AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS
ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE MARINE
REPORTING STATIONS...AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS. THE LOW AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT THIS
MORNING WAS 84 DEGREES...AND IF THIS HOLD WILL BE A RECORD WARM
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ON JUNE 30TH.

.FORECAST...
THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE IS SLIDING NORTHWARD WHILE STRENGTHENING
AND THE RESULT IS WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SHIFT TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HAZE IS DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVING OVER
THE AREA AND IS HELPING SUBDUE CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS WITH AT LEAST SOME GUSTY
WINDS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARD THE KEYS. A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND GAIN LATITUDE
RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS WILL COUNT ON INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE LESS CHANCE DUE TO MUCH
DRIER AIR THROUGH THE MID LAYERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT THIS
TIME AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND TURN EASTERLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1966...2.12 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 30TH...WHICH STANDS 49 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  90  82  89 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  81  91  82  91 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION. MODELS
SUGGEST A FEW STORMS IN THE INTERIOR. FOR NOW, REMOVED VCTS AS
THERE IS NOTHING AS OF 2PM TO INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY, AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY ACT TO INHIBIT
MOST OFT HE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A
CUMULUS FIELD TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY,
BUT EVEN IF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMS, IT WILL PROBABLY
MAINLY BE IN THE INTERIOR. ALSO, THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED INLAND, WITH THE ATLANTIC BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE METRO AREA IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. SO,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  91 /  30  40  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  90 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            78  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 301802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION. MODELS
SUGGEST A FEW STORMS IN THE INTERIOR. FOR NOW, REMOVED VCTS AS
THERE IS NOTHING AS OF 2PM TO INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY, AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY ACT TO INHIBIT
MOST OFT HE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A
CUMULUS FIELD TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY,
BUT EVEN IF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMS, IT WILL PROBABLY
MAINLY BE IN THE INTERIOR. ALSO, THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED INLAND, WITH THE ATLANTIC BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE METRO AREA IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. SO,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  91 /  30  40  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  90 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            78  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION. MODELS
SUGGEST A FEW STORMS IN THE INTERIOR. FOR NOW, REMOVED VCTS AS
THERE IS NOTHING AS OF 2PM TO INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY, AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY ACT TO INHIBIT
MOST OFT HE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A
CUMULUS FIELD TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY,
BUT EVEN IF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMS, IT WILL PROBABLY
MAINLY BE IN THE INTERIOR. ALSO, THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED INLAND, WITH THE ATLANTIC BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE METRO AREA IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. SO,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  91 /  30  40  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  90 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            78  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 301802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION. MODELS
SUGGEST A FEW STORMS IN THE INTERIOR. FOR NOW, REMOVED VCTS AS
THERE IS NOTHING AS OF 2PM TO INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY, AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY ACT TO INHIBIT
MOST OFT HE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A
CUMULUS FIELD TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY,
BUT EVEN IF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMS, IT WILL PROBABLY
MAINLY BE IN THE INTERIOR. ALSO, THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED INLAND, WITH THE ATLANTIC BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE METRO AREA IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. SO,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  91 /  30  40  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  90 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            78  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KJAX 301731
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH WITH THE CONVECTION
ALONG IT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL DROP EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NWS JACKSONVILLE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS IT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. THE BOW ECHO LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST AND IT DOES WEAKEN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF A SECOND
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CONVECTION SHOULD TOTALLY END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND 60
PERCENT EARLY IN THE EVENING.

THE BROAD EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
A GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THINGS SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENT TOMORROW WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER GEORGIA AND THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE OF
FLORIDA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AND LATER ONSET OF CONVECTION.

/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY WITH A FEW IMPULSES
ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL REGION. THE AXIS
OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA KEEPING LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PERIOD FOR CONVECTION.  HENCE...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
PATTERN OF SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR
GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND TSTMS/RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE FL PENINSULA
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DEAMPLIFIES. WILL TRANSISTION
TO A LIGHTER S AND SW FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN MORE DIURNAL
TYPE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER
OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL FIELDS THROUGH
ABOUT 02 UTC. CEILINGS WILL CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
3.0-5.0 KFT RANGE AND LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING IF THE BOW
ECHO MOVES OVER THE LOCAL FIELDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH AND GENERAL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. WE SHOULD
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF
THE WEEK AND MAYBE A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE
RIDGE NOSES OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  73  93 /  60  20  20  50
SSI  75  92  77  89 /  60  30  30  30
JAX  74  93  73  93 /  60  30  20  50
SGJ  74  91  76  91 /  60  30  20  40
GNV  72  91  73  93 /  50  30  20  50
OCF  73  92  73  92 /  40  30  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/SANDRIK/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 301731
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH WITH THE CONVECTION
ALONG IT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL DROP EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NWS JACKSONVILLE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS IT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. THE BOW ECHO LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST AND IT DOES WEAKEN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF A SECOND
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CONVECTION SHOULD TOTALLY END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND 60
PERCENT EARLY IN THE EVENING.

THE BROAD EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
A GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THINGS SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENT TOMORROW WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER GEORGIA AND THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE OF
FLORIDA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AND LATER ONSET OF CONVECTION.

/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY WITH A FEW IMPULSES
ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL REGION. THE AXIS
OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA KEEPING LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PERIOD FOR CONVECTION.  HENCE...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
PATTERN OF SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR
GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND TSTMS/RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE FL PENINSULA
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DEAMPLIFIES. WILL TRANSISTION
TO A LIGHTER S AND SW FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN MORE DIURNAL
TYPE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER
OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL FIELDS THROUGH
ABOUT 02 UTC. CEILINGS WILL CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
3.0-5.0 KFT RANGE AND LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING IF THE BOW
ECHO MOVES OVER THE LOCAL FIELDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH AND GENERAL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. WE SHOULD
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF
THE WEEK AND MAYBE A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE
RIDGE NOSES OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  73  93 /  60  20  20  50
SSI  75  92  77  89 /  60  30  30  30
JAX  74  93  73  93 /  60  30  20  50
SGJ  74  91  76  91 /  60  30  20  40
GNV  72  91  73  93 /  50  30  20  50
OCF  73  92  73  92 /  40  30  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/SANDRIK/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 301731
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH WITH THE CONVECTION
ALONG IT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL DROP EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NWS JACKSONVILLE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS IT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. THE BOW ECHO LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST AND IT DOES WEAKEN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF A SECOND
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CONVECTION SHOULD TOTALLY END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND 60
PERCENT EARLY IN THE EVENING.

THE BROAD EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
A GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THINGS SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENT TOMORROW WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER GEORGIA AND THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE OF
FLORIDA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AND LATER ONSET OF CONVECTION.

/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY WITH A FEW IMPULSES
ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL REGION. THE AXIS
OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA KEEPING LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PERIOD FOR CONVECTION.  HENCE...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
PATTERN OF SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR
GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND TSTMS/RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE FL PENINSULA
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DEAMPLIFIES. WILL TRANSISTION
TO A LIGHTER S AND SW FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN MORE DIURNAL
TYPE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER
OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL FIELDS THROUGH
ABOUT 02 UTC. CEILINGS WILL CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
3.0-5.0 KFT RANGE AND LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING IF THE BOW
ECHO MOVES OVER THE LOCAL FIELDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH AND GENERAL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. WE SHOULD
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF
THE WEEK AND MAYBE A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE
RIDGE NOSES OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  73  93 /  60  20  20  50
SSI  75  92  77  89 /  60  30  30  30
JAX  74  93  73  93 /  60  30  20  50
SGJ  74  91  76  91 /  60  30  20  40
GNV  72  91  73  93 /  50  30  20  50
OCF  73  92  73  92 /  40  30  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/SANDRIK/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 301731
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
131 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/...
OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE AREA WILL MOVE NORTH WITH THE CONVECTION
ALONG IT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL DROP EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NWS JACKSONVILLE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING WITH A POSSIBLE SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER
AS IT APPROACHES THIS EVENING. THE BOW ECHO LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE EAST COAST AND IT DOES WEAKEN OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SO LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF A SECOND
ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CONVECTION SHOULD TOTALLY END BY
MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES IN MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 70S AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE AROUND 60
PERCENT EARLY IN THE EVENING.

THE BROAD EAST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH
A GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THINGS SHOULD
BE A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENT TOMORROW WITH POPS GENERALLY IN THE
20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER GEORGIA AND THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE OF
FLORIDA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH
LESS CLOUD COVERAGE AND LATER ONSET OF CONVECTION.

/WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY WITH A FEW IMPULSES
ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL REGION. THE AXIS
OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA KEEPING LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
PERIOD FOR CONVECTION.  HENCE...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED
PATTERN OF SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR
GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND TSTMS/RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE FL PENINSULA
AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DEAMPLIFIES. WILL TRANSISTION
TO A LIGHTER S AND SW FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN MORE DIURNAL
TYPE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER
OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS
WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL MAINTAIN TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL FIELDS THROUGH
ABOUT 02 UTC. CEILINGS WILL CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
3.0-5.0 KFT RANGE AND LOOK FOR GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING IF THE BOW
ECHO MOVES OVER THE LOCAL FIELDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOCAL AREA REMAINS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH AND GENERAL LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH. WE SHOULD
MAINTAIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE LATER PORTION OF
THE WEEK AND MAYBE A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE
RIDGE NOSES OFFSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  93  73  93 /  60  20  20  50
SSI  75  92  77  89 /  60  30  30  30
JAX  74  93  73  93 /  60  30  20  50
SGJ  74  91  76  91 /  60  30  20  40
GNV  72  91  73  93 /  50  30  20  50
OCF  73  92  73  92 /  40  30  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/SANDRIK/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 301349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION TODAY
BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER WEST
CENTRAL FL THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 40 PERCENT) WILL RESIDE ALONG
THE COAST FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY OR STORM
INTERACTIONS THAT OCCUR WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. OFFSHORE
FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...SO SHOULD SEE THE SEA BREEZE
FORM AND STALL ALONG COASTAL AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AS THEY PUSH OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOWER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER COASTAL
AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED OR DOES NOT
DEVELOP AT ALL MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AS HIGH
OF COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AS YESTERDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE ISO/SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FL INTO THE AFT AND PUSH EAST
TOWARD THE COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AND TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL EXIST ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM KTIX-KSUA DUE TO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS THAT OCCUR WITH THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME
MORE S/SE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES
SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FEET. A FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 301349
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
949 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE REGION TODAY
BETWEEN RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER WEST
CENTRAL FL THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE
AFTERNOON. BEST RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 40 PERCENT) WILL RESIDE ALONG
THE COAST FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY OR STORM
INTERACTIONS THAT OCCUR WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. OFFSHORE
FLOW IS NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY...SO SHOULD SEE THE SEA BREEZE
FORM AND STALL ALONG COASTAL AREAS MAINLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AS THEY PUSH OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
TODAY.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LOWER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER COASTAL
AREAS WHERE THE SEA BREEZE IS SIGNIFICANTLY DELAYED OR DOES NOT
DEVELOP AT ALL MAY BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. NOT EXPECTING AS HIGH
OF COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA AS YESTERDAY DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE ISO/SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL FL INTO THE AFT AND PUSH EAST
TOWARD THE COAST. BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AND TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL EXIST ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM KTIX-KSUA DUE TO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS THAT OCCUR WITH THE STALLED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BECOME
MORE S/SE NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES
SLIGHTLY INLAND FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FEET. A FEW STRONG OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER



000
FXUS62 KKEY 301327
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
AN SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA THIS
MORNING. SKIES ARE HAZY ALOFT WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH 400 MB. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS MORNING.

.FORECAST...
WEAK WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPING CLOUD LINES TODAY...BUT THE
HAZE ALOFT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON DAYTIME HEATING. THIS ALONG WITH
LINGERING SAHARAN DUST WILL CAP THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP HIGH END SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS ANY CONVECTION THAT PUNCHES THROUGH 850 MB WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE TO LIFT CORES THROUGH -10 CELSIUS...AROUND 22K FEET.
OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS WITH AT LEAST SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARD THE KEYS. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND GAIN LATITUDE RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS WILL COUNT ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE LESS CHANCE DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE MID LAYERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN
UNCHANGED WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
.VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1966...2.12 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 30TH...WHICH STANDS 49 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 301327
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
AN SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA THIS
MORNING. SKIES ARE HAZY ALOFT WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH 400 MB. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS MORNING.

.FORECAST...
WEAK WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPING CLOUD LINES TODAY...BUT THE
HAZE ALOFT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON DAYTIME HEATING. THIS ALONG WITH
LINGERING SAHARAN DUST WILL CAP THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP HIGH END SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS ANY CONVECTION THAT PUNCHES THROUGH 850 MB WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE TO LIFT CORES THROUGH -10 CELSIUS...AROUND 22K FEET.
OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS WITH AT LEAST SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARD THE KEYS. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND GAIN LATITUDE RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS WILL COUNT ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE LESS CHANCE DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE MID LAYERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN
UNCHANGED WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
.VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1966...2.12 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 30TH...WHICH STANDS 49 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KTBW 301327
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
927 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
WHILE THE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS...
WHICH HAVE HAVE BEEN PREVAILING FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAY OR
SO... ARE ROBUST ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME RIP CURRENT RISK AT
BEACHES FROM PINELLAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. A HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN PLACE.

THE COLUMN HAS DRIED SOME...THE 12Z TBW HAD A PWAT VALUE OF 1.4
INCHES THIS MORNING VERSUS 1.7 YESTERDAY MORNING...AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS NORTH OF THE AREA HAS SHIFTED AWAY SO
ANTICIPATE SOME WHAT LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND LATER IN AFTERNOON
WITH INLAND LOCATIONS FAVORED. THE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...LESS THAN FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 01/12Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH ONLY VCNTY REMARKS FOR SHRA/TSRA.
SW BECOMING WEST FLOW WILL KEPT MOST OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF NO MORE THAN 10-15 KNOTS. THE AXIS
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH WITH WINDS WINDS BACKING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  40  30
GIF  93  76  94  75 /  30  10  40  30
SRQ  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  30  40
BKV  91  72  92  72 /  30  10  40  30
SPG  91  79  92  80 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...10/LAMARRE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 301327
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
927 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
WHILE THE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS...
WHICH HAVE HAVE BEEN PREVAILING FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAY OR
SO... ARE ROBUST ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME RIP CURRENT RISK AT
BEACHES FROM PINELLAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. A HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN PLACE.

THE COLUMN HAS DRIED SOME...THE 12Z TBW HAD A PWAT VALUE OF 1.4
INCHES THIS MORNING VERSUS 1.7 YESTERDAY MORNING...AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS NORTH OF THE AREA HAS SHIFTED AWAY SO
ANTICIPATE SOME WHAT LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND LATER IN AFTERNOON
WITH INLAND LOCATIONS FAVORED. THE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...LESS THAN FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 01/12Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH ONLY VCNTY REMARKS FOR SHRA/TSRA.
SW BECOMING WEST FLOW WILL KEPT MOST OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF NO MORE THAN 10-15 KNOTS. THE AXIS
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH WITH WINDS WINDS BACKING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  40  30
GIF  93  76  94  75 /  30  10  40  30
SRQ  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  30  40
BKV  91  72  92  72 /  30  10  40  30
SPG  91  79  92  80 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...10/LAMARRE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 301327
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
927 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY.
WHILE THE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS...
WHICH HAVE HAVE BEEN PREVAILING FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAY OR
SO... ARE ROBUST ENOUGH TO CREATE SOME RIP CURRENT RISK AT
BEACHES FROM PINELLAS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING. A HAZARD
STATEMENT IS IN PLACE.

THE COLUMN HAS DRIED SOME...THE 12Z TBW HAD A PWAT VALUE OF 1.4
INCHES THIS MORNING VERSUS 1.7 YESTERDAY MORNING...AND A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS NORTH OF THE AREA HAS SHIFTED AWAY SO
ANTICIPATE SOME WHAT LESS COVERAGE TODAY AND LATER IN AFTERNOON
WITH INLAND LOCATIONS FAVORED. THE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO BETTER REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...LESS THAN FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 01/12Z. PREVAILING VFR WITH ONLY VCNTY REMARKS FOR SHRA/TSRA.
SW BECOMING WEST FLOW WILL KEPT MOST OF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF NO MORE THAN 10-15 KNOTS. THE AXIS
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH WITH WINDS WINDS BACKING LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  40  30
GIF  93  76  94  75 /  30  10  40  30
SRQ  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  30  40
BKV  91  72  92  72 /  30  10  40  30
SPG  91  79  92  80 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...10/LAMARRE




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301327
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
927 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
AN SURFACE ANTICYCLONE IS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA THIS
MORNING. SKIES ARE HAZY ALOFT WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH 400 MB. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS MORNING.

.FORECAST...
WEAK WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPING CLOUD LINES TODAY...BUT THE
HAZE ALOFT WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON DAYTIME HEATING. THIS ALONG WITH
LINGERING SAHARAN DUST WILL CAP THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
KEEP HIGH END SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST AS ANY CONVECTION THAT PUNCHES THROUGH 850 MB WILL HAVE A
GOOD CHANCE TO LIFT CORES THROUGH -10 CELSIUS...AROUND 22K FEET.
OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO SEE NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STRAITS WITH AT LEAST SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVING TOWARD THE KEYS. A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL LIFT OUT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AND GAIN LATITUDE RESULTING IN AN
INCREASE IN WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE
INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS WILL COUNT ON INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE LESS CHANCE DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE MID LAYERS. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN
UNCHANGED WITH SURFACE WINDS INCREASING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN
WEDNESDAY...FRESHENING WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT
CAUTION STATEMENTS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
.VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING WINDS TO PICK
UP AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1966...2.12 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 30TH...WHICH STANDS 49 YEARS LATER.
RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KTAE 301314
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND AL AND PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING DEPICTS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 6.7 C/KM AND SBCAPE ALREADY
OVER 2000 J/KG. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ABOVE AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WITH 700 MB WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR FOR THIS TIME YEAR. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...THERE IS NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR EARLY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS COUPLED WITH SHEAR THAT IS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT
WAS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS
RECEIVED WITH THE CONVECTION BACK IN CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN EXPLICIT 50
KNOT GUSTS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [628 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP AND TLH THIS MORNING
AND AT OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.


.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  60  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  60  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  60  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  60  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP




000
FXUS62 KTAE 301314
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND AL AND PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING DEPICTS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 6.7 C/KM AND SBCAPE ALREADY
OVER 2000 J/KG. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ABOVE AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WITH 700 MB WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR FOR THIS TIME YEAR. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...THERE IS NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR EARLY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS COUPLED WITH SHEAR THAT IS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT
WAS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS
RECEIVED WITH THE CONVECTION BACK IN CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN EXPLICIT 50
KNOT GUSTS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [628 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP AND TLH THIS MORNING
AND AT OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.


.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  60  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  60  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  60  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  60  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP



000
FXUS62 KTAE 301314
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND AL AND PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING DEPICTS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 6.7 C/KM AND SBCAPE ALREADY
OVER 2000 J/KG. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ABOVE AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WITH 700 MB WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR FOR THIS TIME YEAR. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...THERE IS NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR EARLY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS COUPLED WITH SHEAR THAT IS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT
WAS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS
RECEIVED WITH THE CONVECTION BACK IN CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN EXPLICIT 50
KNOT GUSTS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [628 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP AND TLH THIS MORNING
AND AT OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.


.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  60  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  60  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  60  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  60  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP



000
FXUS62 KTAE 301314
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
914 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...SOME SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH AN MCS ORGANIZING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MS AND AL AND PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
12Z KTAE SOUNDING. THE SOUNDING DEPICTS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AROUND 6.7 C/KM AND SBCAPE ALREADY
OVER 2000 J/KG. THERE ARE ALSO SOME ABOVE AVERAGE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS WITH 700 MB WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS...WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SHEAR FOR THIS TIME YEAR. UNLIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
MORNINGS...THERE IS NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER OR EARLY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA...AND THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THESE FACTORS...AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THE
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS COUPLED WITH SHEAR THAT IS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THANKS TO THE UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO YIELD SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IT
WAS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORT WAS
RECEIVED WITH THE CONVECTION BACK IN CENTRAL ALABAMA EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SHOWN EXPLICIT 50
KNOT GUSTS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ANOTHER SIGN
THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [628 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.


.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP AND TLH THIS MORNING
AND AT OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.


.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  60  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  60  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  60  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  60  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  50  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP




000
FXUS62 KJAX 301258
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE-LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM MAYO THROUGH BELL TO WALDO
AND SAINT AUGUSTINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY...WITHIN 60 MILES EITHER SIDE OF IT...AND INDEED
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT ALONG THE
FRONTAL SURFACE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SO WITH A DOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT AND RACE ACROSS OCALA AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.

NEXT ISSUE IS HRRR INDICATES A BOW ECHO DROPPING OUT OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WITH CONVECTION ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE BOUGHT INTO THAT SCENARIO. HAVE ADDED GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO THE GEORGIA ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAY INCREASE THAT IF TRENDS STAY FAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE ABOVE WE WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF OUR FIELDS
BASED ON THE LOCAL TIMING OF THE VARIOUS MODES OF CONVECTION. WITH
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING MIGHT ADD SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR SSI
LATER TODAY,

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
OVER US AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE WEEK AND OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  93  73 /  40  40  40  20
SSI  89  75  89  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
SGJ  90  74  89  76 /  40  30  40  30
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  50  20  40  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/COMBS/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 301258
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE-LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM MAYO THROUGH BELL TO WALDO
AND SAINT AUGUSTINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY...WITHIN 60 MILES EITHER SIDE OF IT...AND INDEED
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT ALONG THE
FRONTAL SURFACE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SO WITH A DOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT AND RACE ACROSS OCALA AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.

NEXT ISSUE IS HRRR INDICATES A BOW ECHO DROPPING OUT OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WITH CONVECTION ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE BOUGHT INTO THAT SCENARIO. HAVE ADDED GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO THE GEORGIA ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAY INCREASE THAT IF TRENDS STAY FAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE ABOVE WE WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF OUR FIELDS
BASED ON THE LOCAL TIMING OF THE VARIOUS MODES OF CONVECTION. WITH
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING MIGHT ADD SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR SSI
LATER TODAY,

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
OVER US AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE WEEK AND OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  93  73 /  40  40  40  20
SSI  89  75  89  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
SGJ  90  74  89  76 /  40  30  40  30
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  50  20  40  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/COMBS/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 301258
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE-LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM MAYO THROUGH BELL TO WALDO
AND SAINT AUGUSTINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY...WITHIN 60 MILES EITHER SIDE OF IT...AND INDEED
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT ALONG THE
FRONTAL SURFACE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SO WITH A DOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT AND RACE ACROSS OCALA AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.

NEXT ISSUE IS HRRR INDICATES A BOW ECHO DROPPING OUT OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WITH CONVECTION ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE BOUGHT INTO THAT SCENARIO. HAVE ADDED GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO THE GEORGIA ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAY INCREASE THAT IF TRENDS STAY FAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE ABOVE WE WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF OUR FIELDS
BASED ON THE LOCAL TIMING OF THE VARIOUS MODES OF CONVECTION. WITH
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING MIGHT ADD SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR SSI
LATER TODAY,

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
OVER US AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE WEEK AND OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  93  73 /  40  40  40  20
SSI  89  75  89  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
SGJ  90  74  89  76 /  40  30  40  30
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  50  20  40  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/COMBS/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 301258
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE-LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM MAYO THROUGH BELL TO WALDO
AND SAINT AUGUSTINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY...WITHIN 60 MILES EITHER SIDE OF IT...AND INDEED
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT ALONG THE
FRONTAL SURFACE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SO WITH A DOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT AND RACE ACROSS OCALA AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.

NEXT ISSUE IS HRRR INDICATES A BOW ECHO DROPPING OUT OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WITH CONVECTION ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE BOUGHT INTO THAT SCENARIO. HAVE ADDED GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO THE GEORGIA ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAY INCREASE THAT IF TRENDS STAY FAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE ABOVE WE WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF OUR FIELDS
BASED ON THE LOCAL TIMING OF THE VARIOUS MODES OF CONVECTION. WITH
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING MIGHT ADD SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR SSI
LATER TODAY,

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
OVER US AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE WEEK AND OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  93  73 /  40  40  40  20
SSI  89  75  89  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
SGJ  90  74  89  76 /  40  30  40  30
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  50  20  40  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/COMBS/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 301258
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE-LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM MAYO THROUGH BELL TO WALDO
AND SAINT AUGUSTINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY...WITHIN 60 MILES EITHER SIDE OF IT...AND INDEED
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT ALONG THE
FRONTAL SURFACE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SO WITH A DOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT AND RACE ACROSS OCALA AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.

NEXT ISSUE IS HRRR INDICATES A BOW ECHO DROPPING OUT OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WITH CONVECTION ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE BOUGHT INTO THAT SCENARIO. HAVE ADDED GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO THE GEORGIA ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAY INCREASE THAT IF TRENDS STAY FAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE ABOVE WE WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF OUR FIELDS
BASED ON THE LOCAL TIMING OF THE VARIOUS MODES OF CONVECTION. WITH
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING MIGHT ADD SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR SSI
LATER TODAY,

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
OVER US AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE WEEK AND OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  93  73 /  40  40  40  20
SSI  89  75  89  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
SGJ  90  74  89  76 /  40  30  40  30
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  50  20  40  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/COMBS/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 301258
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
858 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE-LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON EARLY
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM MAYO THROUGH BELL TO WALDO
AND SAINT AUGUSTINE. EXPECT THIS TO BE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION EARLY TODAY...WITHIN 60 MILES EITHER SIDE OF IT...AND INDEED
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT ALONG THE
FRONTAL SURFACE. SOUTH OF THE FRONT THERE IS LITTLE CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INHIBIT DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY. SO WITH A DOMINANT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE GULF SEA BREEZE TO BECOME
DOMINANT AND RACE ACROSS OCALA AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA
OF RESPONSIBILITY.

NEXT ISSUE IS HRRR INDICATES A BOW ECHO DROPPING OUT OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WITH CONVECTION ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER
CENTRAL ALABAMA HAVE BOUGHT INTO THAT SCENARIO. HAVE ADDED GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL TO THE GEORGIA ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT
MAY INCREASE THAT IF TRENDS STAY FAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
GIVEN THE ABOVE WE WILL HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL OF OUR FIELDS
BASED ON THE LOCAL TIMING OF THE VARIOUS MODES OF CONVECTION. WITH
STRONGER SYNOPTIC FORCING MIGHT ADD SOME STRONGER WINDS FOR SSI
LATER TODAY,

&&

.MARINE...
GIVEN A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT
OVER US AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE WEEK AND OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. NOCTURNAL SURGES MAY WARRANT SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  93  73 /  40  40  40  20
SSI  89  75  89  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
SGJ  90  74  89  76 /  40  30  40  30
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  50  20  40  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  50  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/COMBS/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301151
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST, KEEPING AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AFFECTING THE WIND DIRECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA, KEEPING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR TODAY. HOWEVER, IT
IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME FORMATION NEAR MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THEY CAN IMPACT
ANY OF THOSE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

..HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS FOR REST OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ALONG BOTH COAST.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THIS FOUR OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  78 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 301151
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST, KEEPING AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AFFECTING THE WIND DIRECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA, KEEPING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR TODAY. HOWEVER, IT
IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME FORMATION NEAR MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THEY CAN IMPACT
ANY OF THOSE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

..HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS FOR REST OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ALONG BOTH COAST.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THIS FOUR OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  78 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301151
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST, KEEPING AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AFFECTING THE WIND DIRECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA, KEEPING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR TODAY. HOWEVER, IT
IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME FORMATION NEAR MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THEY CAN IMPACT
ANY OF THOSE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

..HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS FOR REST OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ALONG BOTH COAST.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THIS FOUR OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  78 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301151
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST, KEEPING AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AFFECTING THE WIND DIRECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA, KEEPING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR TODAY. HOWEVER, IT
IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME FORMATION NEAR MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THEY CAN IMPACT
ANY OF THOSE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

..HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS FOR REST OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ALONG BOTH COAST.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THIS FOUR OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  78 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KTAE 301028
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
628 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER POPS TODAY THAN WE SAW ON MONDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 20 KTS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER MATCHES OUR TYPE
5 SEA BREEZE REGIME. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET AN EARLY START NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT BEING GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS INCLUDED OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP AND TLH THIS MORNING
AND AT OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [342 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.


.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  50  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  40  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  60  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP




000
FXUS62 KTAE 301028
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
628 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER POPS TODAY THAN WE SAW ON MONDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 20 KTS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER MATCHES OUR TYPE
5 SEA BREEZE REGIME. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET AN EARLY START NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN
THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
IMPACT BEING GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS INCLUDED OUR ALABAMA COUNTIES
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK TODAY. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE IN UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP AND TLH THIS MORNING
AND AT OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [342 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.


.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  50  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  40  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  60  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP



000
FXUS62 KKEY 300907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
507 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE KEYS. EARLIER THIS MORNING...OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ROLLED
NORTHWEST CAUSING VERY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT SOME MARINE
LOCATIONS. AS OF 400 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEAR 84F DEGREES
ALONG THE KEYS.

.FORECAST...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE
WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...KEEPING
A RATHER SIMILAR PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. PWAT VALUES WILL HOLD AT AN
INCH AND A HALF THIS WEEK. THEN ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE KEYS...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...DECREASING
ON SUNDAY. THIS COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL REQUIRED FOR SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2010...KEY WEST
EXPERIENCED ITS WARMEST JUNE EVER WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.9F.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
507 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE KEYS. EARLIER THIS MORNING...OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ROLLED
NORTHWEST CAUSING VERY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT SOME MARINE
LOCATIONS. AS OF 400 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEAR 84F DEGREES
ALONG THE KEYS.

.FORECAST...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE
WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...KEEPING
A RATHER SIMILAR PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. PWAT VALUES WILL HOLD AT AN
INCH AND A HALF THIS WEEK. THEN ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE KEYS...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...DECREASING
ON SUNDAY. THIS COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL REQUIRED FOR SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2010...KEY WEST
EXPERIENCED ITS WARMEST JUNE EVER WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.9F.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
507 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE KEYS. EARLIER THIS MORNING...OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ROLLED
NORTHWEST CAUSING VERY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT SOME MARINE
LOCATIONS. AS OF 400 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEAR 84F DEGREES
ALONG THE KEYS.

.FORECAST...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE
WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...KEEPING
A RATHER SIMILAR PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. PWAT VALUES WILL HOLD AT AN
INCH AND A HALF THIS WEEK. THEN ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE KEYS...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...DECREASING
ON SUNDAY. THIS COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL REQUIRED FOR SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2010...KEY WEST
EXPERIENCED ITS WARMEST JUNE EVER WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.9F.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
507 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE KEYS. EARLIER THIS MORNING...OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ROLLED
NORTHWEST CAUSING VERY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT SOME MARINE
LOCATIONS. AS OF 400 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEAR 84F DEGREES
ALONG THE KEYS.

.FORECAST...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE
WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...KEEPING
A RATHER SIMILAR PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. PWAT VALUES WILL HOLD AT AN
INCH AND A HALF THIS WEEK. THEN ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE KEYS...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...DECREASING
ON SUNDAY. THIS COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL REQUIRED FOR SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2010...KEY WEST
EXPERIENCED ITS WARMEST JUNE EVER WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.9F.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
507 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE KEYS. EARLIER THIS MORNING...OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ROLLED
NORTHWEST CAUSING VERY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT SOME MARINE
LOCATIONS. AS OF 400 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEAR 84F DEGREES
ALONG THE KEYS.

.FORECAST...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE
WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...KEEPING
A RATHER SIMILAR PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. PWAT VALUES WILL HOLD AT AN
INCH AND A HALF THIS WEEK. THEN ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE KEYS...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...DECREASING
ON SUNDAY. THIS COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL REQUIRED FOR SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2010...KEY WEST
EXPERIENCED ITS WARMEST JUNE EVER WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.9F.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300907
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
507 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED OVERNIGHT WITH NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE KEYS. EARLIER THIS MORNING...OUTFLOWS FROM THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS...BEYOND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ROLLED
NORTHWEST CAUSING VERY BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT SOME MARINE
LOCATIONS. AS OF 400 AM...TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED NEAR 84F DEGREES
ALONG THE KEYS.

.FORECAST...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR AREA TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD TOMORROW. GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE
WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...KEEPING
A RATHER SIMILAR PATTERN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 90S
ONCE AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. PWAT VALUES WILL HOLD AT AN
INCH AND A HALF THIS WEEK. THEN ON FRIDAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE KEYS...AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...DECREASING
ON SUNDAY. THIS COMBINE WITH INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS WATERS ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH
WILL REQUIRED FOR SMALL CRAFT TO EXERCISE CAUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINING SO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2010...KEY WEST
EXPERIENCED ITS WARMEST JUNE EVER WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.9F.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 300823
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
423 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH AGAIN
TODAY TO PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HAVE ISSUED A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FOR THIS THROUGH
02Z THIS EVENING...AFTER WHICH WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE AND LOWER THE
THREAT. ZONES AND SURF ZONE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE
HAZARDS HEADLINE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A
TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT JUST TO THE NW OF THE STATE. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MEANDERING A BIT NORTH. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA
EACH DAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA FROM THE REMNANT BOUNDARY AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE IN PLACE THERE. HAVE GENERALLY SCATTERED NORTH AND
INLAND/ISOLATED CENTRAL AND SOUTH RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CLEARING OUT IN THE EVENING. A FEW MORE
STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S COASTAL TO LOWER 90S
FOR HIGHS AND IN THE 70S..EXCEPT AROUND 80 COASTAL FOR LOWS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. ON THE SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER
OVER NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE DRIFTS NORTH OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AND WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH KEEP EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PICTURE THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH
FILLS SOME AS LOWER PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE MIDSECTION OF THE
COUNTRY AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NUDGES NORTHWARD PROVIDING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S BUT WARMER NEAR THE
COAST.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW SO ONLY HAVE VCTY IN
THE TAF.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING NORTH A BIT THROUGH MID-
WEEK. S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH
SW/W WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  40  30
GIF  93  76  94  75 /  30  10  40  30
SRQ  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  30  40
BKV  91  72  92  72 /  30  10  40  30
SPG  91  79  92  80 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 300751
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
351 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A
TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT JUST TO THE NW OF THE STATE. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MEANDERING A BIT NORTH. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA
EACH DAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA FROM THE REMNANT BOUNDARY AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE IN PLACE THERE. HAVE GENERALLY SCATTERED NORTH AND
INLAND/ISOLATED CENTRAL AND SOUTH RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CLEARING OUT IN THE EVENING. A FEW MORE
STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S COASTAL TO LOWER 90S
FOR HIGHS AND IN THE 70S..EXCEPT AROUND 80 COASTAL FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. ON THE SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER
OVER NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE DRIFTS NORTH OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AND WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH KEEP EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PICTURE THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH
FILLS SOME AS LOWER PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE MIDSECTION OF THE
COUNTRY AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NUDGES NORTHWARD PROVIDING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S BUT WARMER NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW SO ONLY HAVE VCTY IN
THE TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING NORTH A BIT THROUGH MID-
WEEK. S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH
SW/W WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  40  30
GIF  93  76  94  75 /  30  10  40  30
SRQ  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  30  40
BKV  91  72  92  72 /  30  10  40  30
SPG  91  79  92  80 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 300751
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
351 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A
TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT JUST TO THE NW OF THE STATE. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MEANDERING A BIT NORTH. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA
EACH DAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA FROM THE REMNANT BOUNDARY AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE IN PLACE THERE. HAVE GENERALLY SCATTERED NORTH AND
INLAND/ISOLATED CENTRAL AND SOUTH RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CLEARING OUT IN THE EVENING. A FEW MORE
STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S COASTAL TO LOWER 90S
FOR HIGHS AND IN THE 70S..EXCEPT AROUND 80 COASTAL FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. ON THE SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER
OVER NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE DRIFTS NORTH OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AND WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH KEEP EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PICTURE THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH
FILLS SOME AS LOWER PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE MIDSECTION OF THE
COUNTRY AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NUDGES NORTHWARD PROVIDING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S BUT WARMER NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW SO ONLY HAVE VCTY IN
THE TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING NORTH A BIT THROUGH MID-
WEEK. S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH
SW/W WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  40  30
GIF  93  76  94  75 /  30  10  40  30
SRQ  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  30  40
BKV  91  72  92  72 /  30  10  40  30
SPG  91  79  92  80 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 300751
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
351 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A
TROUGH IN PLACE ALOFT JUST TO THE NW OF THE STATE. THIS PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MEANDERING A BIT NORTH. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE TURNING WINDS TO THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA
EACH DAY. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA FROM THE REMNANT BOUNDARY AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE IN PLACE THERE. HAVE GENERALLY SCATTERED NORTH AND
INLAND/ISOLATED CENTRAL AND SOUTH RAIN CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...CLEARING OUT IN THE EVENING. A FEW MORE
STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S COASTAL TO LOWER 90S
FOR HIGHS AND IN THE 70S..EXCEPT AROUND 80 COASTAL FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. ON THE SURFACE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER
OVER NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORNING
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THE RIDGE DRIFTS NORTH OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA AND WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH KEEP EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PICTURE THROUGH SUNDAY. BY MONDAY THE UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH
FILLS SOME AS LOWER PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE MIDSECTION OF THE
COUNTRY AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NUDGES NORTHWARD PROVIDING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO TUESDAY. NORMAL
SUMMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 70S BUT WARMER NEAR THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW SO ONLY HAVE VCTY IN
THE TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING NORTH A BIT THROUGH MID-
WEEK. S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH
SW/W WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  92  78 /  20  10  40  30
FMY  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  40  30
GIF  93  76  94  75 /  30  10  40  30
SRQ  92  77  92  77 /  20  10  30  40
BKV  91  72  92  72 /  30  10  40  30
SPG  91  79  92  80 /  20  10  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/HUBBARD
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300742
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER POPS TODAY THAN WE SAW ON MONDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 20 KTS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER MATCHES OUR TYPE
5 SEA BREEZE REGIME. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET AN EARLY START NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND
LOW 90S INLAND.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP THIS MORNING AND AT
OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  50  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  40  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  60  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP



000
FXUS62 KTAE 300742
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER POPS TODAY THAN WE SAW ON MONDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 20 KTS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER MATCHES OUR TYPE
5 SEA BREEZE REGIME. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET AN EARLY START NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND
LOW 90S INLAND.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP THIS MORNING AND AT
OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  50  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  40  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  60  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP



000
FXUS62 KTAE 300742
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER POPS TODAY THAN WE SAW ON MONDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 20 KTS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER MATCHES OUR TYPE
5 SEA BREEZE REGIME. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET AN EARLY START NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND
LOW 90S INLAND.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP THIS MORNING AND AT
OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  50  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  40  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  60  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP



000
FXUS62 KTAE 300742
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER POPS TODAY THAN WE SAW ON MONDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 20 KTS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER MATCHES OUR TYPE
5 SEA BREEZE REGIME. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET AN EARLY START NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND
LOW 90S INLAND.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP THIS MORNING AND AT
OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  50  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  40  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  60  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP



000
FXUS62 KTAE 300742
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER POPS TODAY THAN WE SAW ON MONDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 20 KTS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER MATCHES OUR TYPE
5 SEA BREEZE REGIME. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET AN EARLY START NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND
LOW 90S INLAND.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP THIS MORNING AND AT
OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  50  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  40  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  60  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300742
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AND INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER POPS TODAY THAN WE SAW ON MONDAY.
WESTERLY FLOW AROUND 20 KTS IN THE 1000-700MB LAYER MATCHES OUR TYPE
5 SEA BREEZE REGIME. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO GET AN EARLY START NEAR
THE COAST THIS MORNING WITH DEVELOPMENT IN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND
LOW 90S INLAND.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROUNDING IT`S BASE IMPACTING THE LOCAL
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE AXIS OF THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA KEEPING LOW LEVEL
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE
ALONG WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY, WE SEE A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD FOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE DURING THE DAYTIME,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING
BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

BY FRIDAY, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND WESTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN TROUGH SLOWLY DE-
AMPLIFIES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS LOWER 90S) ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. INCLUDED VCTS AT ECP THIS MORNING AND AT
OTHER TERMINALS STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS LATER THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS DROP BELOW
HEADLINE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATER THIS WEEK
THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. WITH RH ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  74  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  78  88  76  89 /  50  40  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  71  92  72  91 /  50  50  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  93  71  92 /  40  50  40  30  60
VALDOSTA      91  72  92  73  92 /  40  40  50  30  60
CROSS CITY    90  74  91  73  91 /  50  30  50  30  40
APALACHICOLA  88  78  88  77  90 /  60  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP



000
FXUS62 KMLB 300736
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH
AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WLY WIND PROFILE ALOFT SHOULD BRING EARLY SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST COAST.
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED.

ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFTN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN STORM HAZARD SHOULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
LINGERING PCPN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD COME TO A RATHER EARLY
END LATE THIS AFTN AND PRECIP CHCS TAPER BACK TO ISOLD IN COVERAGE
PAST DARK.

WED-FRI...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. INITIAL GULF
SOURCE PCPN MOVING IN FROM WEST APPEARS REASONABLE FROM AROUND
OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY
DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR
CENTRAL FL BY THU A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO
THE NEED FOR SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE
ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS
GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.

EXTENDED...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN DRIFTING
NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MARINE BASED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH AT LEAST SEASONALLY TO
LOW END SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH TODAY AS
MONDAY...HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING NORTH AND INTO THE
AFT HOURS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES. WEST COAST RADARS
DETECTING SHOWERS COMING ASHORE CITRUS AND HERNANDO COUNTIES THAT
MAY MAKE IT TO LAKE COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS 1
TO 3 FEET. SWAN SEAS ABOUT A FOOT HIGH COMPARED TO NOAA AND SCRIPPS
BUOYS.

WED-SAT...THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST S OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT
WITH A LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM
THE MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS WED-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  73  93  74 /  40  40  40  20
MCO  92  73  94  74 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  92  73  92  75 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  93  75 /  30  30  30  30
LEE  90  76  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  90  75  95  76 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  92  75  95  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  92  71  93  74 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300736
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH
AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WLY WIND PROFILE ALOFT SHOULD BRING EARLY SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST COAST.
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED.

ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFTN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN STORM HAZARD SHOULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
LINGERING PCPN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD COME TO A RATHER EARLY
END LATE THIS AFTN AND PRECIP CHCS TAPER BACK TO ISOLD IN COVERAGE
PAST DARK.

WED-FRI...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. INITIAL GULF
SOURCE PCPN MOVING IN FROM WEST APPEARS REASONABLE FROM AROUND
OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY
DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR
CENTRAL FL BY THU A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO
THE NEED FOR SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE
ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS
GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.

EXTENDED...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN DRIFTING
NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MARINE BASED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH AT LEAST SEASONALLY TO
LOW END SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH TODAY AS
MONDAY...HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING NORTH AND INTO THE
AFT HOURS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES. WEST COAST RADARS
DETECTING SHOWERS COMING ASHORE CITRUS AND HERNANDO COUNTIES THAT
MAY MAKE IT TO LAKE COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS 1
TO 3 FEET. SWAN SEAS ABOUT A FOOT HIGH COMPARED TO NOAA AND SCRIPPS
BUOYS.

WED-SAT...THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST S OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT
WITH A LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM
THE MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS WED-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  73  93  74 /  40  40  40  20
MCO  92  73  94  74 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  92  73  92  75 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  93  75 /  30  30  30  30
LEE  90  76  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  90  75  95  76 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  92  75  95  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  92  71  93  74 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300736
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH
AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WLY WIND PROFILE ALOFT SHOULD BRING EARLY SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST COAST.
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED.

ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFTN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN STORM HAZARD SHOULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
LINGERING PCPN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD COME TO A RATHER EARLY
END LATE THIS AFTN AND PRECIP CHCS TAPER BACK TO ISOLD IN COVERAGE
PAST DARK.

WED-FRI...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. INITIAL GULF
SOURCE PCPN MOVING IN FROM WEST APPEARS REASONABLE FROM AROUND
OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY
DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR
CENTRAL FL BY THU A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO
THE NEED FOR SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE
ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS
GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.

EXTENDED...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN DRIFTING
NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MARINE BASED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH AT LEAST SEASONALLY TO
LOW END SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH TODAY AS
MONDAY...HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING NORTH AND INTO THE
AFT HOURS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES. WEST COAST RADARS
DETECTING SHOWERS COMING ASHORE CITRUS AND HERNANDO COUNTIES THAT
MAY MAKE IT TO LAKE COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS 1
TO 3 FEET. SWAN SEAS ABOUT A FOOT HIGH COMPARED TO NOAA AND SCRIPPS
BUOYS.

WED-SAT...THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST S OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT
WITH A LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM
THE MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS WED-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  73  93  74 /  40  40  40  20
MCO  92  73  94  74 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  92  73  92  75 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  93  75 /  30  30  30  30
LEE  90  76  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  90  75  95  76 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  92  75  95  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  92  71  93  74 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST



000
FXUS62 KMLB 300736
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A MID LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ALONG WITH
AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND WLY WIND PROFILE ALOFT SHOULD BRING EARLY SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATE THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST COAST.
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED.

ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFTN WITH THE SEA
BREEZE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN STORM HAZARD SHOULD BE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
LINGERING PCPN AND EMBEDDED THUNDER SHOULD COME TO A RATHER EARLY
END LATE THIS AFTN AND PRECIP CHCS TAPER BACK TO ISOLD IN COVERAGE
PAST DARK.

WED-FRI...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. INITIAL GULF
SOURCE PCPN MOVING IN FROM WEST APPEARS REASONABLE FROM AROUND
OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY
DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES.

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR
CENTRAL FL BY THU A LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO
THE NEED FOR SFC HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE
ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS
GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.

EXTENDED...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN DRIFTING
NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. MARINE BASED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH AT LEAST SEASONALLY TO
LOW END SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH TODAY AS
MONDAY...HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FROM LATE MORNING NORTH AND INTO THE
AFT HOURS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES. WEST COAST RADARS
DETECTING SHOWERS COMING ASHORE CITRUS AND HERNANDO COUNTIES THAT
MAY MAKE IT TO LAKE COUNTY BEFORE SUNRISE. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS CONTINUE. SEAS 1
TO 3 FEET. SWAN SEAS ABOUT A FOOT HIGH COMPARED TO NOAA AND SCRIPPS
BUOYS.

WED-SAT...THE RIDGE AXIS SITUATED JUST S OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT
WITH A LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM
THE MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS WED-THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  90  73  93  74 /  40  40  40  20
MCO  92  73  94  74 /  40  20  40  20
MLB  92  73  92  75 /  40  30  40  30
VRB  91  71  93  75 /  30  30  30  30
LEE  90  76  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
SFB  90  75  95  76 /  40  20  40  20
ORL  92  75  95  76 /  40  20  40  20
FPR  92  71  93  74 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300725
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS FOR REST OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ALONG BOTH COAST.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THIS FOUR OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  78 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300725
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS FOR REST OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ALONG BOTH COAST.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THIS FOUR OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  78 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KJAX 300657
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE
IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GOMEX AS FLOW AS VEERED
A BIT MORE TO THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME
ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE THE BIG BEND LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED A BIT MOIST
SO WILL KEEP POPS ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY. SOME LIGHT FOG
HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL TODAY...BUT
THINK SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...INITIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
WILL NUDGE EAST DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NW TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN. BY MID/LATE AFTN...THINK THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS SE GA/EXTREME FL WITH COVERAGE
DECREASING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 IMMEDIATE COAST.
LINGERING ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA
WILL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL
PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY...TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THUS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH SLIGHTER
GREATER CHANCES ACROSS SE GA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE  A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BERMUDA RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE FL PENINSULA AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DEAMPLIFIES.
WILL TRANSISTION TO A LIGHTER S AND SW FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN MORE
DIURNAL TYPE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT GNV WHERE PREVAILING
MVFR/PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE IN
FOG. WITH SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCTS
FOR ALL SITES 18-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SOME TURNING
TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  93  73 /  40  30  40  20
SSI  89  75  89  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
SGJ  90  74  89  76 /  30  20  40  30
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  40  20  40  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300657
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE
IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GOMEX AS FLOW AS VEERED
A BIT MORE TO THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME
ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE THE BIG BEND LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED A BIT MOIST
SO WILL KEEP POPS ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY. SOME LIGHT FOG
HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL TODAY...BUT
THINK SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...INITIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
WILL NUDGE EAST DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NW TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN. BY MID/LATE AFTN...THINK THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS SE GA/EXTREME FL WITH COVERAGE
DECREASING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 IMMEDIATE COAST.
LINGERING ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA
WILL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL
PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY...TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THUS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH SLIGHTER
GREATER CHANCES ACROSS SE GA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE  A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BERMUDA RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE FL PENINSULA AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DEAMPLIFIES.
WILL TRANSISTION TO A LIGHTER S AND SW FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN MORE
DIURNAL TYPE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT GNV WHERE PREVAILING
MVFR/PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE IN
FOG. WITH SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCTS
FOR ALL SITES 18-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SOME TURNING
TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  93  73 /  40  30  40  20
SSI  89  75  89  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
SGJ  90  74  89  76 /  30  20  40  30
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  40  20  40  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300657
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE
IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GOMEX AS FLOW AS VEERED
A BIT MORE TO THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME
ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE THE BIG BEND LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED A BIT MOIST
SO WILL KEEP POPS ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY. SOME LIGHT FOG
HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL TODAY...BUT
THINK SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...INITIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
WILL NUDGE EAST DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NW TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN. BY MID/LATE AFTN...THINK THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS SE GA/EXTREME FL WITH COVERAGE
DECREASING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 IMMEDIATE COAST.
LINGERING ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA
WILL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL
PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY...TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THUS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH SLIGHTER
GREATER CHANCES ACROSS SE GA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE  A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BERMUDA RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE FL PENINSULA AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DEAMPLIFIES.
WILL TRANSISTION TO A LIGHTER S AND SW FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN MORE
DIURNAL TYPE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT GNV WHERE PREVAILING
MVFR/PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE IN
FOG. WITH SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCTS
FOR ALL SITES 18-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SOME TURNING
TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  93  73 /  40  30  40  20
SSI  89  75  89  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
SGJ  90  74  89  76 /  30  20  40  30
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  40  20  40  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300657
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
257 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT...WITH LITTLE
IF ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN GOMEX AS FLOW AS VEERED
A BIT MORE TO THE WEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DO DEVELOP SOME
ACTIVITY MOVING ONSHORE THE BIG BEND LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT.
LOOKS LIKE MOST HIGH RES MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED A BIT MOIST
SO WILL KEEP POPS ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED WITH INITIAL
ACTIVITY LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING TODAY. SOME LIGHT FOG
HAS DEVELOPED IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED SOME RAINFALL TODAY...BUT
THINK SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIMITED.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...INITIAL ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
WILL NUDGE EAST DURING THE MORNING...COMBINING WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NW TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN. BY MID/LATE AFTN...THINK THE
GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS SE GA/EXTREME FL WITH COVERAGE
DECREASING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 IMMEDIATE COAST.
LINGERING ACTIVITY EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA
WILL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL
PREVAIL.

WEDNESDAY...TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
THUS WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY...WITH SLIGHTER
GREATER CHANCES ACROSS SE GA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LINGERING
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE  A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... BERMUDA RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE FL PENINSULA AS THE TROUGH OVER THE AREA DEAMPLIFIES.
WILL TRANSISTION TO A LIGHTER S AND SW FLOW WHICH RESULTS IN MORE
DIURNAL TYPE SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE AT GNV WHERE PREVAILING
MVFR/PERIODS OF IFR CAN BE EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE IN
FOG. WITH SCATTERED TSTM COVERAGE THIS AFTN...WILL USE VCTS
FOR ALL SITES 18-23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH SOME TURNING
TO THE SOUTH BY LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. PERIODS OF CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  71  93  73 /  40  30  40  20
SSI  89  75  89  77 /  30  20  30  30
JAX  92  74  93  73 /  40  20  40  20
SGJ  90  74  89  76 /  30  20  40  30
GNV  91  73  91  73 /  40  20  40  20
OCF  91  73  92  73 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

WITH SEABREEZES ON BOTH COASTS, FOCUS FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL BE
THROUGH THE INTERIOR. SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AT THE MOST INLAND
TERMINAL, KTMB, LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLIES ARND
10KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN VEERING TO THE SE AND S
WHILE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
REST OF TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A WILDFIRE THAT BROKE OUT OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT OVER THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO SETTLE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...PATCHY SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...

AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  78  92  78 /  30  30  40  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  90  79 /  20  20  40  10
MIAMI            92  80  91  78 /  30  20  30  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

WITH SEABREEZES ON BOTH COASTS, FOCUS FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL BE
THROUGH THE INTERIOR. SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AT THE MOST INLAND
TERMINAL, KTMB, LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLIES ARND
10KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN VEERING TO THE SE AND S
WHILE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
REST OF TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A WILDFIRE THAT BROKE OUT OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT OVER THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO SETTLE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...PATCHY SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...

AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  78  92  78 /  30  30  40  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  90  79 /  20  20  40  10
MIAMI            92  80  91  78 /  30  20  30  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300232 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1032 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
REST OF TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A WILDFIRE THAT BROKE OUT OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT OVER THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO SETTLE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...PATCHY SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...

AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  78  92 /  20  30  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
MIAMI            77  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....10/CD



000
FXUS62 KTBW 300138
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
938 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...BUT STILL SEEING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR MOVING OVER LAND FROM WEST FLOW OVER
THE GULF. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AS WELL TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY BUT THEN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT ACTIVITY INLAND. MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO CURRENT
POPS...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING...AND SOME OF THESE COULD AFFECT THE TAF
STIES. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN SHIFT ACTIVITY INLAND FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WILL
SHIFT NORTH SOME LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
REMAINING SOUTHWEST NEAR THE NATURE COAST. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  78  92 /  20  30  10  30
FMY  76  94  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
GIF  75  93  76  94 /  10  30  10  50
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  30
SPG  78  92  80  91 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...05/CARLISLE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 300138
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
938 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...BUT STILL SEEING
SOME LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR MOVING OVER LAND FROM WEST FLOW OVER
THE GULF. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NATURE COAST REGION LATER TONIGHT AND THEN FARTHER
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST AS WELL TOWARD THE MORNING HOURS. SIMILAR TO
TODAY...OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
FIRST PART OF TUESDAY BUT THEN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT ACTIVITY INLAND. MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO CURRENT
POPS...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS LARGELY ON TRACK. LOWS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIMILAR
TO TODAY...SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING...AND SOME OF THESE COULD AFFECT THE TAF
STIES. WESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN SHIFT ACTIVITY INLAND FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR SOUTH WILL
SHIFT NORTH SOME LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WATERS ADJACENT TO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
REMAINING SOUTHWEST NEAR THE NATURE COAST. NO HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  78  92 /  20  30  10  30
FMY  76  94  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
GIF  75  93  76  94 /  10  30  10  50
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  30
SPG  78  92  80  91 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...05/CARLISLE



000
FXUS62 KJAX 300133
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHILE SE GA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX WILL RE-IGNITE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION WHICH WILL TRACK
INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL TOWARDS MORNING...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INLD NE FL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE E-NE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL
AND SE GA...THEN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND LINGERING IN THE SE
GA REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH MAIN
IMPACTS GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH LIGHTNING/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THEY
REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A STATIONARY SEA BREEZE
FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. STORM COVERAGE OVERALL ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE BEACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV
THROUGH 03Z. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT VQQ
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT GNV AFTER 13Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY TOWARDS 16Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...A PROB30 GROUP WAS USED FOR GNV. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE INDICATED VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT...WITH HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
THREAT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  71  92 /   0  30  30  60
SSI  75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  60
SGJ  74  92  75  89 /  20  30  20  60
GNV  72  92  72  91 /  30  40  20  60
OCF  72  92  73  91 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300133
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHILE SE GA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX WILL RE-IGNITE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION WHICH WILL TRACK
INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL TOWARDS MORNING...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INLD NE FL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE E-NE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL
AND SE GA...THEN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND LINGERING IN THE SE
GA REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH MAIN
IMPACTS GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH LIGHTNING/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THEY
REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A STATIONARY SEA BREEZE
FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. STORM COVERAGE OVERALL ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE BEACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV
THROUGH 03Z. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT VQQ
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT GNV AFTER 13Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY TOWARDS 16Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...A PROB30 GROUP WAS USED FOR GNV. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE INDICATED VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT...WITH HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
THREAT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  71  92 /   0  30  30  60
SSI  75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  60
SGJ  74  92  75  89 /  20  30  20  60
GNV  72  92  72  91 /  30  40  20  60
OCF  72  92  73  91 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300133
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHILE SE GA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX WILL RE-IGNITE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION WHICH WILL TRACK
INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL TOWARDS MORNING...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INLD NE FL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE E-NE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL
AND SE GA...THEN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND LINGERING IN THE SE
GA REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH MAIN
IMPACTS GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH LIGHTNING/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THEY
REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A STATIONARY SEA BREEZE
FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. STORM COVERAGE OVERALL ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE BEACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV
THROUGH 03Z. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT VQQ
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT GNV AFTER 13Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY TOWARDS 16Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...A PROB30 GROUP WAS USED FOR GNV. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE INDICATED VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT...WITH HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
THREAT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  71  92 /   0  30  30  60
SSI  75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  60
SGJ  74  92  75  89 /  20  30  20  60
GNV  72  92  72  91 /  30  40  20  60
OCF  72  92  73  91 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300133
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHILE SE GA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX WILL RE-IGNITE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION WHICH WILL TRACK
INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL TOWARDS MORNING...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INLD NE FL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE E-NE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL
AND SE GA...THEN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND LINGERING IN THE SE
GA REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH MAIN
IMPACTS GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH LIGHTNING/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THEY
REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A STATIONARY SEA BREEZE
FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. STORM COVERAGE OVERALL ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE BEACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV
THROUGH 03Z. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT VQQ
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT GNV AFTER 13Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY TOWARDS 16Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...A PROB30 GROUP WAS USED FOR GNV. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE INDICATED VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT...WITH HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
THREAT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  71  92 /   0  30  30  60
SSI  75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  60
SGJ  74  92  75  89 /  20  30  20  60
GNV  72  92  72  91 /  30  40  20  60
OCF  72  92  73  91 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300133
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
933 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR
LINGERING ISOLD SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS NE FL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHILE SE GA WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. THE WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOMEX WILL RE-IGNITE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION WHICH WILL TRACK
INTO THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL TOWARDS MORNING...SOME OF
WHICH COULD CONTAIN SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS INLD NE FL DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE E-NE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF NE FL
AND SE GA...THEN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND LINGERING IN THE SE
GA REGION DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL
GENERALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH MAIN
IMPACTS GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH LIGHTNING/WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THEY
REACH THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE MAX HEATING WILL OCCUR WITH TEMPS
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A STATIONARY SEA BREEZE
FRONT RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES. STORM COVERAGE OVERALL ON TUESDAY
WILL BE IN THE 30-50% RANGE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE MORNING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL AND ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES TO THE BEACHES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS AND GNV
THROUGH 03Z. PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT VQQ
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD POTENTIALLY IMPACT GNV AFTER 13Z...WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY TOWARDS 16Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN TIMING AND INTENSITY...A PROB30 GROUP WAS USED FOR GNV. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AT THE REMAINDER OF THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...AND HAVE INDICATED VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE AFTER 18Z. WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
WILL INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY 18Z AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT...WITH HIGHEST
WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. MAIN
THREAT THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  94  71  92 /   0  30  30  60
SSI  75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  93  74  92 /  20  40  20  60
SGJ  74  92  75  89 /  20  30  20  60
GNV  72  92  72  91 /  30  40  20  60
OCF  72  92  73  91 /  40  40  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KKEY 300117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE VARIABLE AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY
UNSTABLE...BUT QUITE DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE END OF JUNE. THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO MORE
THAN DIME POPS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1920...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 69 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 29TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 95 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................11
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 300117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE VARIABLE AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS VERY
UNSTABLE...BUT QUITE DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE
WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE
TUESDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST ABOVE ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN
INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THE END OF JUNE. THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NO MORE
THAN DIME POPS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1920...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 69 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JUNE 29TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 95 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................11
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300057
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
857 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...CONVECTION WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUD DEBRIS WILL SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE L/M 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL MAKE COSMETIC
CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST AND UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP
FIRST PERIOD WORDING.

TUE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE AND ROBUST
WIND PROFILE ALOFT MAY AGAIN BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED. ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM
INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFT WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING
WITH GRADUAL THINNING SKIES. INTERESTING THAT THE WRFARW2 SUGGESTS A
LINE OF CONVECTION FROM MID MORNING-EARLY AFTN TUE TRAVERSING THE
EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. NOT SURE I BELIEVE THE COVERAGE IT
SUGGESTS BUT IT COULD BE ANOTHER EARLY CONVECTIVE START TO THE DAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERALL WEAKER ON TUE WITH THE ECSB FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTN. TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-TUE...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. MAINLY SW/WSW WINDS FORECAST 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. WIND SPEEDS FALLING TO MAINLY 5-10 KTS ON TUE. THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TUE AFTN AT LEAST FROM
THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/PENDERGRAST



000
FXUS62 KMLB 300057
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
857 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...CONVECTION WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUD DEBRIS WILL SLOWLY THIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MIN
TEMPERATURES IN THE L/M 70S WITH LIGHT WINDS. WILL MAKE COSMETIC
CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST AND UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP
FIRST PERIOD WORDING.

TUE...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MID WEEK WITH AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE AND ROBUST
WIND PROFILE ALOFT MAY AGAIN BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING
EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE
CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED. ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM
INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFT WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING
WITH GRADUAL THINNING SKIES. INTERESTING THAT THE WRFARW2 SUGGESTS A
LINE OF CONVECTION FROM MID MORNING-EARLY AFTN TUE TRAVERSING THE
EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. NOT SURE I BELIEVE THE COVERAGE IT
SUGGESTS BUT IT COULD BE ANOTHER EARLY CONVECTIVE START TO THE DAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERALL WEAKER ON TUE WITH THE ECSB FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AT LEAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD IN THE AFTN. TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ACTIVITY ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-TUE...LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. MAINLY SW/WSW WINDS FORECAST 10-15 KTS OVERNIGHT
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. WIND SPEEDS FALLING TO MAINLY 5-10 KTS ON TUE. THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TUE AFTN AT LEAST FROM
THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300040
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
840 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AS OF 00Z, ALL OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA HAD
DIMINISHED, OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE TAYLOR AND DIXIE
COUNTY COASTLINES. POPS WERE REDUCED AND LARGELY KEPT OFFSHORE TO
ACCOUNT FOR BOTH RECENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
(WHICH WAS MAINLY 20% OR LESS). HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS AS
THOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAND
BREEZE, PARTICULARLY AREAS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS (CAM)
ARE SHOWING THIS. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT NEAR-
COASTAL LAND AREAS, BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WATERS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S OVER LAND.

ONE ADDITIONAL ITEM OF NOTE IS THAT MANY CAMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING
VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER 06Z. ALMOST ALL CAMS SHOW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34
KNOTS, WITH SOME IN EXCESS OF 40-45 KNOTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS SHOW LARGE CAPE (AOA 3000 J/KG) SO STRONGER
STORMS WOULD BE WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WE WILL ADD
A MENTION OF STRONG WINDS WITH STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO A CUMULUS FIELD IN THE MID-LATE MORNING WITH
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING. EARLY MORNING STORMS SHOULD LARGELY
BE OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF, BUT A FEW MAY AFFECT ECP AS EARLY AS
08-09Z (POSSIBLY WITH SOME MVFR CIGS). OTHERWISE, SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY AFTERNOON STORM COULD BRING IFR VISIBILITY
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [312 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
TONIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
RETURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, REPLACING THE RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS PRESENT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY. WITH THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
FOR TUESDAY, EXPECTED AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG THE COAST, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AND SPREADING
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, AN EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL INTRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EXPECTED THERE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE GULF COAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS. LOWER 90S) THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND LOWER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.


.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A DAY WITH LESS RAIN COVERAGE TODAY...AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINING ABOVE 45 PERCENT THIS
WEEK...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.


.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   73  91  75  92  75 /  10  40  20  50  30
PANAMA CITY   78  87  79  87  79 /  40  50  30  40  30
DOTHAN        72  91  73  91  73 /  10  50  20  50  30
ALBANY        71  91  72  90  73 /   0  40  20  40  30
VALDOSTA      71  92  73  92  73 /  10  40  20  50  30
CROSS CITY    72  91  75  91  75 /  40  40  20  50  20
APALACHICOLA  77  88  79  89  79 /  40  50  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP



000
FXUS62 KTAE 300040
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
840 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AS OF 00Z, ALL OF THE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA HAD
DIMINISHED, OTHER THAN A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE TAYLOR AND DIXIE
COUNTY COASTLINES. POPS WERE REDUCED AND LARGELY KEPT OFFSHORE TO
ACCOUNT FOR BOTH RECENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
(WHICH WAS MAINLY 20% OR LESS). HOWEVER, IT STILL APPEARS AS
THOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAND
BREEZE, PARTICULARLY AREAS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE VAST MAJORITY OF CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS (CAM)
ARE SHOWING THIS. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AFFECT NEAR-
COASTAL LAND AREAS, BUT MOST SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE WATERS PRIOR
TO SUNRISE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S OVER LAND.

ONE ADDITIONAL ITEM OF NOTE IS THAT MANY CAMS ARE ALSO PRODUCING
VERY GUSTY WINDS WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AFTER 06Z. ALMOST ALL CAMS SHOW GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34
KNOTS, WITH SOME IN EXCESS OF 40-45 KNOTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS SHOW LARGE CAPE (AOA 3000 J/KG) SO STRONGER
STORMS WOULD BE WELL WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. WE WILL ADD
A MENTION OF STRONG WINDS WITH STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY] VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
WILL GIVE WAY TO A CUMULUS FIELD IN THE MID-LATE MORNING WITH
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING. EARLY MORNING STORMS SHOULD LARGELY
BE OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF, BUT A FEW MAY AFFECT ECP AS EARLY AS
08-09Z (POSSIBLY WITH SOME MVFR CIGS). OTHERWISE, SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY AFTERNOON STORM COULD BRING IFR VISIBILITY
AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [312 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
TONIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
RETURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, REPLACING THE RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS PRESENT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY. WITH THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
FOR TUESDAY, EXPECTED AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG THE COAST, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AND SPREADING
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, AN EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL INTRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EXPECTED THERE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE GULF COAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS. LOWER 90S) THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND LOWER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.


.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A DAY WITH LESS RAIN COVERAGE TODAY...AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINING ABOVE 45 PERCENT THIS
WEEK...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.


.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   73  91  75  92  75 /  10  40  20  50  30
PANAMA CITY   78  87  79  87  79 /  40  50  30  40  30
DOTHAN        72  91  73  91  73 /  10  50  20  50  30
ALBANY        71  91  72  90  73 /   0  40  20  40  30
VALDOSTA      71  92  73  92  73 /  10  40  20  50  30
CROSS CITY    72  91  75  91  75 /  40  40  20  50  20
APALACHICOLA  77  88  79  89  79 /  40  50  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP




000
FXUS62 KMFL 292349
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

60


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  78  92 /  30  30  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
MIAMI            77  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 292349
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

60


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  78  92 /  30  30  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
MIAMI            77  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 292022
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
422 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WE ARE SEEING
SOME MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP WHERE THE SUN HAS
RETURNED. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PERSISTING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WE SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS COASTAL AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN DRIVE THE CONVECTION QUICKLY INLAND ONCE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE
70S... EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE LOCATIONS THAT DO NO SEE A
LATE NIGHT SHOWER WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE LOWER 80S. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH THE
HIGHEST READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TROUGHING STRETCHES FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GULF COAST WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN. WITH TIME THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES NORTH AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WHILE LIFTING NORTH....CROSSING FL
DURING THE WORK WEEK AND REACHING THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERS FROM THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THEN MOVES NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR
FLORIDA AN AXIS OF BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE KEYS SLOWLY TRAVERSES NORTH...INTO NORTHERN
FL FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE FORECAST. WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
NORTH. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RELAXED ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO SHIFT WINDS TO ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED BUT OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN BETWEEN 1.6 AND
1.9 INCHES ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW SMALL POCKETS OUTSIDE THAT
RANGE AT TIMES. AS THE AXIS GOES BY AND SHIFTS THE FLOW - TIMING
OF THE SHOWER/STORMS GOES FROM LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING ON THE
GULF... TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING THE DAY...TO INLAND MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS THAT TRENDS DOWN AND SLIDES OFFSHORE IN THE
EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL BY UP TO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF AND SOME OF THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND
COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT HOLDS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING WINDS
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OFF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OFF THE WEST CENTRAL
COAST AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE STRONG
AND GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND WINDS AND ERC VALUES
STAY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE ONLY FIRE HAZARD EXPECTED WILL
BE DANGER FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  78  92 /  10  30  10  30
FMY  76  94  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
GIF  75  93  76  94 /  10  30  10  50
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  30
SPG  80  91  81  91 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 292022
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
422 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WE ARE SEEING
SOME MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP WHERE THE SUN HAS
RETURNED. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PERSISTING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WE SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS COASTAL AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN DRIVE THE CONVECTION QUICKLY INLAND ONCE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE
70S... EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE LOCATIONS THAT DO NO SEE A
LATE NIGHT SHOWER WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE LOWER 80S. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH THE
HIGHEST READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TROUGHING STRETCHES FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GULF COAST WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN. WITH TIME THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES NORTH AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WHILE LIFTING NORTH....CROSSING FL
DURING THE WORK WEEK AND REACHING THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERS FROM THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THEN MOVES NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR
FLORIDA AN AXIS OF BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE KEYS SLOWLY TRAVERSES NORTH...INTO NORTHERN
FL FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE FORECAST. WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
NORTH. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RELAXED ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO SHIFT WINDS TO ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED BUT OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN BETWEEN 1.6 AND
1.9 INCHES ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW SMALL POCKETS OUTSIDE THAT
RANGE AT TIMES. AS THE AXIS GOES BY AND SHIFTS THE FLOW - TIMING
OF THE SHOWER/STORMS GOES FROM LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING ON THE
GULF... TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING THE DAY...TO INLAND MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS THAT TRENDS DOWN AND SLIDES OFFSHORE IN THE
EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL BY UP TO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF AND SOME OF THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND
COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT HOLDS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING WINDS
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OFF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OFF THE WEST CENTRAL
COAST AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE STRONG
AND GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND WINDS AND ERC VALUES
STAY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE ONLY FIRE HAZARD EXPECTED WILL
BE DANGER FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  78  92 /  10  30  10  30
FMY  76  94  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
GIF  75  93  76  94 /  10  30  10  50
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  30
SPG  80  91  81  91 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 292022
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
422 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WE ARE SEEING
SOME MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP WHERE THE SUN HAS
RETURNED. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PERSISTING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WE SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS COASTAL AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN DRIVE THE CONVECTION QUICKLY INLAND ONCE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE
70S... EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE LOCATIONS THAT DO NO SEE A
LATE NIGHT SHOWER WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE LOWER 80S. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH THE
HIGHEST READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TROUGHING STRETCHES FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GULF COAST WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN. WITH TIME THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES NORTH AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WHILE LIFTING NORTH....CROSSING FL
DURING THE WORK WEEK AND REACHING THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERS FROM THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THEN MOVES NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR
FLORIDA AN AXIS OF BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE KEYS SLOWLY TRAVERSES NORTH...INTO NORTHERN
FL FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE FORECAST. WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
NORTH. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RELAXED ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO SHIFT WINDS TO ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED BUT OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN BETWEEN 1.6 AND
1.9 INCHES ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW SMALL POCKETS OUTSIDE THAT
RANGE AT TIMES. AS THE AXIS GOES BY AND SHIFTS THE FLOW - TIMING
OF THE SHOWER/STORMS GOES FROM LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING ON THE
GULF... TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING THE DAY...TO INLAND MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS THAT TRENDS DOWN AND SLIDES OFFSHORE IN THE
EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL BY UP TO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF AND SOME OF THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND
COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT HOLDS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING WINDS
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OFF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OFF THE WEST CENTRAL
COAST AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE STRONG
AND GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND WINDS AND ERC VALUES
STAY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE ONLY FIRE HAZARD EXPECTED WILL
BE DANGER FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  78  92 /  10  30  10  30
FMY  76  94  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
GIF  75  93  76  94 /  10  30  10  50
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  30
SPG  80  91  81  91 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 292022
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
422 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH HEATING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WE ARE SEEING
SOME MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP WHERE THE SUN HAS
RETURNED. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW PERSISTING AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE
WE SHOULD SEE MORE CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST
LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS COASTAL AREAS FURTHER SOUTH. THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN DRIVE THE CONVECTION QUICKLY INLAND ONCE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
WHERE THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TONIGHT MOSTLY IN THE
70S... EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE COAST WHERE LOCATIONS THAT DO NO SEE A
LATE NIGHT SHOWER WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THE LOWER 80S. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH THE
HIGHEST READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHERE THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE PARKED
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. INITIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TROUGHING STRETCHES FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE GULF COAST WHILE
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN. WITH TIME THE EASTERN TROUGH SLIDES NORTH AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDS WHILE LIFTING NORTH....CROSSING FL
DURING THE WORK WEEK AND REACHING THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
U.S. FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MEANDERS FROM THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST THEN MOVES NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR
FLORIDA AN AXIS OF BROAD ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
BAHAMAS AND ALONG THE KEYS SLOWLY TRAVERSES NORTH...INTO NORTHERN
FL FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
DRIVER OF THE FORECAST. WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
NORTH. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RELAXED ENOUGH TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS TO SHIFT WINDS TO ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
BE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED BUT OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL PWAT VALUES RUN BETWEEN 1.6 AND
1.9 INCHES ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A FEW SMALL POCKETS OUTSIDE THAT
RANGE AT TIMES. AS THE AXIS GOES BY AND SHIFTS THE FLOW - TIMING
OF THE SHOWER/STORMS GOES FROM LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING ON THE
GULF... TRANSITIONING INLAND DURING THE DAY...TO INLAND MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS THAT TRENDS DOWN AND SLIDES OFFSHORE IN THE
EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL BY UP TO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...BUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF AND SOME OF THESE WILL MOVE ONSHORE AND
COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH AND A STATIONARY FRONT HOLDS
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK ALLOWING WINDS
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION OFF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OFF THE WEST CENTRAL
COAST AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS...BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER. WINDS AND SEAS MAY BE STRONG
AND GUSTY IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND WINDS AND ERC VALUES
STAY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THE ONLY FIRE HAZARD EXPECTED WILL
BE DANGER FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  91  78  92 /  10  30  10  30
FMY  76  94  76  94 /  10  20  10  50
GIF  75  93  76  94 /  10  30  10  50
SRQ  77  91  77  91 /  10  20  10  30
BKV  72  91  73  92 /  20  40  20  30
SPG  80  91  81  91 /  10  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291948
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECREASED ACROSS
NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHED
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH WAS LINGERING
ROUGHLY FROM HOMERVILLE TO BRUNSWICK THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF OF THE FRONT COULD
STILL SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NE FL DUE TO
PERSISTENT MID- HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WHERE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS IN THE
LOWER 60S AT DQH AND AMG. AFTER MIDNIGHT  EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS TEMPS COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
RIVER BASIN/COAST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS PRESSING INLAND FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION FROM GNV/OCF THROUGH SUNRISE.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY LATE TUE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK WSW PUSHING
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD OVER SE GA TUE AFTN...AND COMBINED
WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL AXIS EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
COMPARED TO TODAY OVER SE GA WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NE
FL. HIGH WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET AS LOW FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
70S.

WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...MEAN LAYER TROUGH OVER GA WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION WITH 500 MB TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE UNDER MOIST WSW FLOW OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ADVERTISED HIGH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 60% FIRST
MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF EACH MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION
WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
FROM FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND TRENDED A TAD LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH MON...

SYNOPSIS...MORE SEASONAL PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

FRI-SUN...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
FRI AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE EDGES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE HELD NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ENABLING BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO PENETRATE INLAND. ADVERTISED NEAR CLIMO DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES WITH BOTH SEA BREEZES DRIFTING INLAND WITH THE FOCUS FOR
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN I-75 AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. ABOVE CLIMO
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

MON...MEAN RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER SE GA.
ADVERTISED BELOW NORMAL PRECIP WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY AROUND 30%
WITH HOT TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SSI ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A MEANDERING FRONT ACROSS SE GA. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ESE OF FL TERMINALS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WSW WINDS. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL EDGE INLAND FROM THE GULF
TUE MORNING AND NEAR GNV/SGJ BY MID-LATE MORNING AND INCLUDED VCSH
FOR BOTH SITES BETWEEN 13-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK SURFACE FRONTS
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTH GEORGIA. NOCTURNAL WIND
SURGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE-THU NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS TUE AND WED OVER SE GA AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  71  92 /  10  30  30  60
SSI  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  91  74  92 /  10  50  20  60
SGJ  73  90  75  89 /  30  30  20  60
GNV  71  90  72  91 /  20  40  20  60
OCF  73  90  73  91 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291948
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECREASED ACROSS
NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHED
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH WAS LINGERING
ROUGHLY FROM HOMERVILLE TO BRUNSWICK THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF OF THE FRONT COULD
STILL SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NE FL DUE TO
PERSISTENT MID- HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WHERE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS IN THE
LOWER 60S AT DQH AND AMG. AFTER MIDNIGHT  EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS TEMPS COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
RIVER BASIN/COAST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS PRESSING INLAND FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION FROM GNV/OCF THROUGH SUNRISE.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY LATE TUE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK WSW PUSHING
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD OVER SE GA TUE AFTN...AND COMBINED
WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL AXIS EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
COMPARED TO TODAY OVER SE GA WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NE
FL. HIGH WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET AS LOW FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
70S.

WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...MEAN LAYER TROUGH OVER GA WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION WITH 500 MB TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE UNDER MOIST WSW FLOW OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ADVERTISED HIGH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 60% FIRST
MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF EACH MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION
WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
FROM FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND TRENDED A TAD LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH MON...

SYNOPSIS...MORE SEASONAL PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

FRI-SUN...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
FRI AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE EDGES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE HELD NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ENABLING BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO PENETRATE INLAND. ADVERTISED NEAR CLIMO DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES WITH BOTH SEA BREEZES DRIFTING INLAND WITH THE FOCUS FOR
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN I-75 AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. ABOVE CLIMO
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

MON...MEAN RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER SE GA.
ADVERTISED BELOW NORMAL PRECIP WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY AROUND 30%
WITH HOT TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SSI ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A MEANDERING FRONT ACROSS SE GA. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ESE OF FL TERMINALS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WSW WINDS. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL EDGE INLAND FROM THE GULF
TUE MORNING AND NEAR GNV/SGJ BY MID-LATE MORNING AND INCLUDED VCSH
FOR BOTH SITES BETWEEN 13-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK SURFACE FRONTS
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTH GEORGIA. NOCTURNAL WIND
SURGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE-THU NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS TUE AND WED OVER SE GA AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  71  92 /  10  30  30  60
SSI  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  91  74  92 /  10  50  20  60
SGJ  73  90  75  89 /  30  30  20  60
GNV  71  90  72  91 /  20  40  20  60
OCF  73  90  73  91 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KJAX 291948
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
348 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED...

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION RAPIDLY DECREASED ACROSS
NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN AS A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHED
ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT WHICH WAS LINGERING
ROUGHLY FROM HOMERVILLE TO BRUNSWICK THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF OF THE FRONT COULD
STILL SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS ONLY TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS NE FL DUE TO
PERSISTENT MID- HIGH CLOUDS...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
80S NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WHERE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT WITH DEW PTS IN THE
LOWER 60S AT DQH AND AMG. AFTER MIDNIGHT  EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS TEMPS COOL INTO THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID 70S
RIVER BASIN/COAST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS PRESSING INLAND FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION FROM GNV/OCF THROUGH SUNRISE.

TUE & TUE NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWNSTREAM OF THE
MS RIVER VALLEY LATE TUE. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK WSW PUSHING
DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD OVER SE GA TUE AFTN...AND COMBINED
WITH THE LINGERING FRONTAL AXIS EXPECT MORE COVERAGE OF PRECIP
COMPARED TO TODAY OVER SE GA WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NE
FL. HIGH WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S. PRECIP WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET AS LOW FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
70S.

WED THROUGH THU NIGHT...MEAN LAYER TROUGH OVER GA WILL INCREASE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DIURNAL PRECIPITATION WITH 500 MB TEMPS
FALLING INTO THE -8 TO -10 DEG C RANGE UNDER MOIST WSW FLOW OUT OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. ADVERTISED HIGH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 60% FIRST
MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF EACH MORNING THEN SPREADING INLAND
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION
WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AT NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN DYNAMICAL SUPPORT
FROM FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND HIGH INSTABILITY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR
CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 AND TRENDED A TAD LOWER THAN
GUIDANCE GIVEN EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MILD AND MUGGY WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH MON...

SYNOPSIS...MORE SEASONAL PRECIP PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

FRI-SUN...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DE-AMPLIFY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
FRI AS THE BERMUDA RIDGE EDGES WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC. FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE HELD NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH A LIGHTER SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ENABLING BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO PENETRATE INLAND. ADVERTISED NEAR CLIMO DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES WITH BOTH SEA BREEZES DRIFTING INLAND WITH THE FOCUS FOR
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN I-75 AND THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. ABOVE CLIMO
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR CLIMO IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 70S RIVER BASIN/COAST.

MON...MEAN RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
WITH A DRIER AND MORE STABLE NNW FLOW EXPECTED OVER SE GA.
ADVERTISED BELOW NORMAL PRECIP WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY AROUND 30%
WITH HOT TEMPS RISING INTO THE UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION....VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT SSI ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
A MEANDERING FRONT ACROSS SE GA. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH TO THE ESE OF FL TERMINALS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WSW WINDS. ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN WILL EDGE INLAND FROM THE GULF
TUE MORNING AND NEAR GNV/SGJ BY MID-LATE MORNING AND INCLUDED VCSH
FOR BOTH SITES BETWEEN 13-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND WEAK SURFACE FRONTS
OVER THE GULF COAST REGION AND SOUTH GEORGIA. NOCTURNAL WIND
SURGES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY TUE-THU NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE.


RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED DISPERSIONS TUE AND WED OVER SE GA AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  92  71  92 /  10  30  30  60
SSI  75  89  75  89 /  20  30  30  50
JAX  72  91  74  92 /  10  50  20  60
SGJ  73  90  75  89 /  30  30  20  60
GNV  71  90  72  91 /  20  40  20  60
OCF  73  90  73  91 /  40  60  30  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  78  92 /  30  30  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
MIAMI            77  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  78  92 /  30  30  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
MIAMI            77  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KTAE 291912
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
312 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED, BUT EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THAT WAS LEFT BEHIND HAS GREATLY SLOWED ANY ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. FURTHER TO THE NORTH
INTO SOUTH GEORGIA/ALABAMA PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY INSISTENT THAT THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOISTEN AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
IMPULSE TRAVELLING WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE
CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
TONIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
RETURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, REPLACING THE RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS PRESENT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY. WITH THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
FOR TUESDAY, EXPECTED AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG THE COAST, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AND SPREADING
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, AN EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL INTRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EXPECTED THERE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE GULF COAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS. LOWER 90S) THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND LOWER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AT ABY/VLD/DHN.
EXPECT TSRA TO BE NEAR ECP BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR THE INLAND SITES, THIS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGHT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A DAY WITH LESS RAIN COVERAGE TODAY...AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINING ABOVE 45 PERCENT THIS
WEEK...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  91  75  92  75 /  20  40  20  50  30
PANAMA CITY   77  87  79  87  79 /  30  50  30  40  30
DOTHAN        73  91  73  91  73 /  10  50  20  50  30
ALBANY        71  91  72  90  73 /  10  40  20  40  30
VALDOSTA      71  92  73  92  73 /  20  40  20  50  30
CROSS CITY    71  91  75  91  75 /  20  40  20  50  20
APALACHICOLA  76  88  79  89  79 /  40  50  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP



000
FXUS62 KTAE 291912
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
312 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND HAS
LARGELY DISSIPATED, BUT EXTENSIVE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
THAT WAS LEFT BEHIND HAS GREATLY SLOWED ANY ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. FURTHER TO THE NORTH
INTO SOUTH GEORGIA/ALABAMA PLENTY OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS
PREVENTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY INSISTENT THAT THE AIRMASS
WILL BEGIN TO QUICKLY MOISTEN AGAIN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
IMPULSE TRAVELLING WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF OFFSHORE
CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
AS ONE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE BASE OF THE BROAD EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
TONIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON
TUESDAY TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
RETURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE, REPLACING THE RELATIVELY
DRY AIRMASS WHICH IS PRESENT OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY. WITH THE RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME
FOR TUESDAY, EXPECTED AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG THE COAST, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING AND SPREADING
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, AN EXITING SHORTWAVE WILL INTRODUCE SOME DRIER AIR BACK
INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS EXPECTED THERE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES IN THE WESTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN
TO BUILD OVER THE REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE GULF COAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES (MID 90S VS. LOWER 90S) THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND LOWER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TOO ISOLATED TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS IS POSSIBLE BEFORE DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AT ABY/VLD/DHN.
EXPECT TSRA TO BE NEAR ECP BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR THE INLAND SITES, THIS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE WATERS
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGHT THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A DAY WITH LESS RAIN COVERAGE TODAY...AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
AREA. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINING ABOVE 45 PERCENT THIS
WEEK...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE CONVECTION
MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL BUT A FEW
SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST WEEK, BUT
ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  91  75  92  75 /  20  40  20  50  30
PANAMA CITY   77  87  79  87  79 /  30  50  30  40  30
DOTHAN        73  91  73  91  73 /  10  50  20  50  30
ALBANY        71  91  72  90  73 /  10  40  20  40  30
VALDOSTA      71  92  73  92  73 /  20  40  20  50  30
CROSS CITY    71  91  75  91  75 /  20  40  20  50  20
APALACHICOLA  76  88  79  89  79 /  40  50  30  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER/CAMP




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291906
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
306 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE
COAST PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY
PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL LINGER
BEHIND THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUNSET. AS THIS PRECIPITATION PUSHES
OFFSHORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO PUSH A FEW SHOWERS INTO AREAS WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
LATE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT STILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUE-WED...MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE AND ROBUST WIND PROFILE ALOFT MAY
AGAIN BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
DELAYED. ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFT WITH
THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE. DURING WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. AN EARLIER THAN
NORMAL ONSET TO PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE GULF CST APPEARS REASONABLE
FROM AROUND OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

EXTENDED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU. THE
FEATURE THEN DRIFTS FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A
LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO THE REQUIREMENTS FOR SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND
PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS GENERALLY FOR BEST
COVERAGE. MARINE BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH LATE AFT. AREAS
OF RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND SUNSET...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY AND TOWARD I-4 LATE TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED PAST LATE EVENING.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH TOMORROW BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
INTO THE AFT HOURS. HOWEVER MAY SEE AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION
AGAIN ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INTO THE MORNING. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...GUSTY OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE TREASURE
COAST BY LATE AFT. W/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 2-3 FT.

TUE-THU...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT WITH A
LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND
WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  92  73  92 /  20  50  20  40
MCO  74  93  73  94 /  20  50  20  40
MLB  73  91  74  92 /  20  50  20  40
VRB  73  91  72  93 /  30  50  30  30
LEE  74  92  76  93 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  73  93  75  94 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  93  75  93 /  20  50  20  40
FPR  72  92  71  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH
AVIATION...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291906
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
306 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE
COAST PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY
PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL LINGER
BEHIND THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUNSET. AS THIS PRECIPITATION PUSHES
OFFSHORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO PUSH A FEW SHOWERS INTO AREAS WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
LATE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT STILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUE-WED...MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE AND ROBUST WIND PROFILE ALOFT MAY
AGAIN BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
DELAYED. ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFT WITH
THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE. DURING WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. AN EARLIER THAN
NORMAL ONSET TO PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE GULF CST APPEARS REASONABLE
FROM AROUND OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

EXTENDED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU. THE
FEATURE THEN DRIFTS FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A
LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO THE REQUIREMENTS FOR SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND
PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS GENERALLY FOR BEST
COVERAGE. MARINE BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH LATE AFT. AREAS
OF RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND SUNSET...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY AND TOWARD I-4 LATE TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED PAST LATE EVENING.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH TOMORROW BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
INTO THE AFT HOURS. HOWEVER MAY SEE AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION
AGAIN ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INTO THE MORNING. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...GUSTY OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE TREASURE
COAST BY LATE AFT. W/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 2-3 FT.

TUE-THU...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT WITH A
LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND
WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  92  73  92 /  20  50  20  40
MCO  74  93  73  94 /  20  50  20  40
MLB  73  91  74  92 /  20  50  20  40
VRB  73  91  72  93 /  30  50  30  30
LEE  74  92  76  93 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  73  93  75  94 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  93  75  93 /  20  50  20  40
FPR  72  92  71  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH
AVIATION...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER



000
FXUS62 KMLB 291906
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
306 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE
COAST PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY
PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL LINGER
BEHIND THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUNSET. AS THIS PRECIPITATION PUSHES
OFFSHORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO PUSH A FEW SHOWERS INTO AREAS WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
LATE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT STILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUE-WED...MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE AND ROBUST WIND PROFILE ALOFT MAY
AGAIN BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
DELAYED. ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFT WITH
THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE. DURING WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. AN EARLIER THAN
NORMAL ONSET TO PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE GULF CST APPEARS REASONABLE
FROM AROUND OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

EXTENDED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU. THE
FEATURE THEN DRIFTS FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A
LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO THE REQUIREMENTS FOR SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND
PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS GENERALLY FOR BEST
COVERAGE. MARINE BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH LATE AFT. AREAS
OF RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND SUNSET...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY AND TOWARD I-4 LATE TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED PAST LATE EVENING.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH TOMORROW BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
INTO THE AFT HOURS. HOWEVER MAY SEE AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION
AGAIN ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INTO THE MORNING. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...GUSTY OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE TREASURE
COAST BY LATE AFT. W/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 2-3 FT.

TUE-THU...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT WITH A
LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND
WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  92  73  92 /  20  50  20  40
MCO  74  93  73  94 /  20  50  20  40
MLB  73  91  74  92 /  20  50  20  40
VRB  73  91  72  93 /  30  50  30  30
LEE  74  92  76  93 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  73  93  75  94 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  93  75  93 /  20  50  20  40
FPR  72  92  71  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH
AVIATION...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291906
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
306 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE
COAST PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY
PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL LINGER
BEHIND THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUNSET. AS THIS PRECIPITATION PUSHES
OFFSHORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO PUSH A FEW SHOWERS INTO AREAS WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
LATE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT STILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUE-WED...MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE AND ROBUST WIND PROFILE ALOFT MAY
AGAIN BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
DELAYED. ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFT WITH
THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE. DURING WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. AN EARLIER THAN
NORMAL ONSET TO PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE GULF CST APPEARS REASONABLE
FROM AROUND OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

EXTENDED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU. THE
FEATURE THEN DRIFTS FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A
LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO THE REQUIREMENTS FOR SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND
PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS GENERALLY FOR BEST
COVERAGE. MARINE BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH LATE AFT. AREAS
OF RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND SUNSET...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY AND TOWARD I-4 LATE TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED PAST LATE EVENING.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH TOMORROW BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
INTO THE AFT HOURS. HOWEVER MAY SEE AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION
AGAIN ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INTO THE MORNING. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...GUSTY OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE TREASURE
COAST BY LATE AFT. W/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 2-3 FT.

TUE-THU...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT WITH A
LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND
WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  92  73  92 /  20  50  20  40
MCO  74  93  73  94 /  20  50  20  40
MLB  73  91  74  92 /  20  50  20  40
VRB  73  91  72  93 /  30  50  30  30
LEE  74  92  76  93 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  73  93  75  94 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  93  75  93 /  20  50  20  40
FPR  72  92  71  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH
AVIATION...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291906
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
306 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE
COAST PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY
PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL LINGER
BEHIND THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUNSET. AS THIS PRECIPITATION PUSHES
OFFSHORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO PUSH A FEW SHOWERS INTO AREAS WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
LATE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT STILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUE-WED...MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE AND ROBUST WIND PROFILE ALOFT MAY
AGAIN BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
DELAYED. ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFT WITH
THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE. DURING WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. AN EARLIER THAN
NORMAL ONSET TO PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE GULF CST APPEARS REASONABLE
FROM AROUND OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

EXTENDED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU. THE
FEATURE THEN DRIFTS FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A
LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO THE REQUIREMENTS FOR SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND
PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS GENERALLY FOR BEST
COVERAGE. MARINE BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH LATE AFT. AREAS
OF RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND SUNSET...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY AND TOWARD I-4 LATE TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED PAST LATE EVENING.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH TOMORROW BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
INTO THE AFT HOURS. HOWEVER MAY SEE AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION
AGAIN ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INTO THE MORNING. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...GUSTY OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE TREASURE
COAST BY LATE AFT. W/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 2-3 FT.

TUE-THU...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT WITH A
LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND
WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  92  73  92 /  20  50  20  40
MCO  74  93  73  94 /  20  50  20  40
MLB  73  91  74  92 /  20  50  20  40
VRB  73  91  72  93 /  30  50  30  30
LEE  74  92  76  93 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  73  93  75  94 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  93  75  93 /  20  50  20  40
FPR  72  92  71  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH
AVIATION...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291906
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
306 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE
COAST PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY
PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF RAIN WILL LINGER
BEHIND THIS BAND OF CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND A FEW POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH SUNSET. AS THIS PRECIPITATION PUSHES
OFFSHORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER A MODERATE LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MAY
BE ABLE TO PUSH A FEW SHOWERS INTO AREAS WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
LATE. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BUT STILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

TUE-WED...MID LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH
MID WEEK WITH AXIS OF THE ATLC RIDGE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AMPLE MOISTURE AND ROBUST WIND PROFILE ALOFT MAY
AGAIN BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO
THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THE
SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE CAPE...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE
DELAYED. ANY BOUNDARY OR STORM INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE AFT WITH
THE SEA BREEZE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS
POSSIBLE. DURING WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. AN EARLIER THAN
NORMAL ONSET TO PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE GULF CST APPEARS REASONABLE
FROM AROUND OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC HEATING AND
BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

EXTENDED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU. THE
FEATURE THEN DRIFTS FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A
LIGHTER WIND REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
STORMS...SLIGHTLY DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO THE REQUIREMENTS FOR SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND
PROFILE THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS GENERALLY FOR BEST
COVERAGE. MARINE BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SCT/NMRS SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH LATE AFT. AREAS
OF RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COAST AND ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BEHIND
THIS MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND SUNSET...BUT OVERALL EXPECTING
DECREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
ABLE TO PUSH INTO LAKE COUNTY AND TOWARD I-4 LATE TONIGHT...
OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP IS EXPECTED PAST LATE EVENING.

COVERAGE OF STORMS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH TOMORROW BUT
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
INTO THE AFT HOURS. HOWEVER MAY SEE AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION
AGAIN ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INTO THE MORNING. TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...GUSTY OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL PUSH OFF THE TREASURE
COAST BY LATE AFT. W/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS UP TO 2-3 FT.

TUE-THU...THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK
AND WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT WITH A
LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND
WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  92  73  92 /  20  50  20  40
MCO  74  93  73  94 /  20  50  20  40
MLB  73  91  74  92 /  20  50  20  40
VRB  73  91  72  93 /  30  50  30  30
LEE  74  92  76  93 /  20  50  20  40
SFB  73  93  75  94 /  20  50  20  40
ORL  74  93  75  93 /  20  50  20  40
FPR  72  92  71  92 /  30  50  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST GRIDS...WEITLICH
AVIATION...ULRICH
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KKEY 291849
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
249 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HAZE DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER...(SAL) MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE ISLAND CLOUD
LINE HAS FORMED BUT THE VERTICAL EXTENT HAS BEEN LIMITED BY THE SAL
AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT. HIGH HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S...AND NEAR 90 DEGREES MAKE FOR A HEAT INDEX AROUND 100
DEGREES.

.FORECAST...
NO CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST CYCLE...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE NORTHWARD
TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THE SAL WILL CONTINUE PAST THE KEYS AREA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE LONG
FETCH OF THE EASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE GULF STREAM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY
INDUCE AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXTENDING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL FRESHEN WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIALLY SOME BRIEF
SURGES TO NEAR CAUTIONARY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1986...1.14 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR JUNE
29 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80  89  81  89 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  80  92  81  91 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 291849
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
249 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME HAZE DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR
LAYER...(SAL) MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE ISLAND CLOUD
LINE HAS FORMED BUT THE VERTICAL EXTENT HAS BEEN LIMITED BY THE SAL
AND THE DRY AIR ALOFT. HIGH HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 70S...AND NEAR 90 DEGREES MAKE FOR A HEAT INDEX AROUND 100
DEGREES.

.FORECAST...
NO CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST CYCLE...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO SLIDE NORTHWARD
TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WHILE INCREASING
EVER SO SLIGHTLY. THE SAL WILL CONTINUE PAST THE KEYS AREA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE LONG
FETCH OF THE EASTERLY BREEZES OVER THE GULF STREAM. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE INCREASE IN
MOISTURE ALONG WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE IN LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY
INDUCE AT LEAST A LOW END CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXTENDING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL FRESHEN WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIALLY SOME BRIEF
SURGES TO NEAR CAUTIONARY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1986...1.14 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR JUNE
29 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  80  89  81  89 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  80  92  81  91 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 291720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291425
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
DESPITE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. MAINTAINED PM VCTS ALL ALL
EAST COAST SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW OVER MIAMI-DADE
/POPS 30 PCT OR LESS/. WINDS BY LATE MORNING WILL BE SEA-BREEZE
DOMINATED. CONVECTION AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291425
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
DESPITE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. MAINTAINED PM VCTS ALL ALL
EAST COAST SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW OVER MIAMI-DADE
/POPS 30 PCT OR LESS/. WINDS BY LATE MORNING WILL BE SEA-BREEZE
DOMINATED. CONVECTION AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291424
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1024 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
GENERALLY FROM JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARIANNA TO VALDOSTA.
OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER APALACHEE BAY IS ANALYZED
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE KTAE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING SHOWED CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE IN THE 700-300 MB
LAYER. THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS HOW THE
CONVECTION IN PROGRESS OVER APALACHEE BAY AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL IMPACT DESTABLIZATION IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, WHERE
THE DEEP LAYER AIRMASS ISN`T ESPECIALLY DRY. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM MORNING CONVECTION IS KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS FAR INLAND
AS THOMASVILLE. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS OVER THE BAY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD IMPACTING PRIMARILY THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA BIG BEND COUNTIES, BUT THE EXTENSIVE CS CANOPY WILL
INHIBIT HEATING ENOUGH THAT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT WITH
AREAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA EXPERIENCING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S, WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
REGION WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. PW`S ARE FORECAST TO BE
BACK AROUND 2.0" BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
WILL SHOW DAYTIME POPS IN THE GOOD CHANCE (50%) RANGE WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

FAIRLY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
NEAR 2 INCHES. ON FRIDAY, THE EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH
DE-AMPLIFIES ALLOWING THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FOURTH
OF JULY OF WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAKDOWN BY LATE
SUNDAY. POPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS (40-50%) THURSDAY AND
BELOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. POPS WILL BE AT
OR BELOW CLIMO ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY] FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ABY OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR
CEILINGS. ALSO INCLUDED MVFR TEMPO GROUPS AT DHN AND VLD FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS.


.MARINE...

MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WETTING RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS, THERE
ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT HIGH RAIN RATES AND RAIN COVERAGE COVERAGE
THROUGH MONDAY, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE
CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL
BUT A FEW SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST
WEEK, BUT ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  71  92  74  92 /  20  30  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   89  76  88  78  88 /  30  30  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  72  92  72  92 /  10  20  50  30  50
ALBANY        91  71  92  72  91 /  10  10  50  30  50
VALDOSTA      86  70  92  72  92 /  10  20  50  30  50
CROSS CITY    84  72  92  75  92 / 100  30  50  30  50
APALACHICOLA  84  76  89  78  89 /  40  30  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291424
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1024 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING,
GENERALLY FROM JUST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MARIANNA TO VALDOSTA.
OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING CONVECTION OVER APALACHEE BAY IS ANALYZED
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE KTAE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING SHOWED CONSIDERABLY DRIER AIR IN PLACE IN THE 700-300 MB
LAYER. THIS DRIER AIRMASS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY IS HOW THE
CONVECTION IN PROGRESS OVER APALACHEE BAY AND THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL IMPACT DESTABLIZATION IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND, WHERE
THE DEEP LAYER AIRMASS ISN`T ESPECIALLY DRY. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS
FROM MORNING CONVECTION IS KEEPING CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS FAR INLAND
AS THOMASVILLE. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS OVER THE BAY
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD IMPACTING PRIMARILY THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA BIG BEND COUNTIES, BUT THE EXTENSIVE CS CANOPY WILL
INHIBIT HEATING ENOUGH THAT ONLY ISOLATED STORMS WOULD BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECT A FAIRLY TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT WITH
AREAS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA EXPERIENCING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S, WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
REGION WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. PW`S ARE FORECAST TO BE
BACK AROUND 2.0" BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
WILL SHOW DAYTIME POPS IN THE GOOD CHANCE (50%) RANGE WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

FAIRLY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
NEAR 2 INCHES. ON FRIDAY, THE EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH
DE-AMPLIFIES ALLOWING THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FOURTH
OF JULY OF WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAKDOWN BY LATE
SUNDAY. POPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS (40-50%) THURSDAY AND
BELOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. POPS WILL BE AT
OR BELOW CLIMO ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY] FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ABY OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR
CEILINGS. ALSO INCLUDED MVFR TEMPO GROUPS AT DHN AND VLD FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS.


.MARINE...

MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.


.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WETTING RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS, THERE
ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.


.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT HIGH RAIN RATES AND RAIN COVERAGE COVERAGE
THROUGH MONDAY, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE
CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL
BUT A FEW SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST
WEEK, BUT ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  71  92  74  92 /  20  30  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   89  76  88  78  88 /  30  30  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  72  92  72  92 /  10  20  50  30  50
ALBANY        91  71  92  72  91 /  10  10  50  30  50
VALDOSTA      86  70  92  72  92 /  10  20  50  30  50
CROSS CITY    84  72  92  75  92 / 100  30  50  30  50
APALACHICOLA  84  76  89  78  89 /  40  30  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



000
FXUS62 KTBW 291403
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1003 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO THE NATURE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND SOUTHWEST COAST WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY LIMIT
COVERAGE AND PUSH STORMS INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS AND RAISE POPS HERE IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST AND LEFT THE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND CANNOT
RULE OUT STRONG GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FORECAST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. ELSEWHERE MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE FORECAST MAXES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY MIDDAY AND THE PGD/FMY/RSW TAF
SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL CAUSE
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TODAY
CAUSING SOME BRIEF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH DURING MIDWEEK WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  90  78 /  70  20  40  10
FMY  92  76  93  76 /  30  10  30  10
GIF  90  75  92  75 /  70  20  40  20
SRQ  89  77  90  76 /  50  20  30  10
BKV  88  73  90  73 /  70  30  40  20
SPG  88  80  90  80 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 291403
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1003 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO THE NATURE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND SOUTHWEST COAST WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY LIMIT
COVERAGE AND PUSH STORMS INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS AND RAISE POPS HERE IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST AND LEFT THE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND CANNOT
RULE OUT STRONG GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FORECAST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. ELSEWHERE MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE FORECAST MAXES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY MIDDAY AND THE PGD/FMY/RSW TAF
SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL CAUSE
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TODAY
CAUSING SOME BRIEF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH DURING MIDWEEK WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  90  78 /  70  20  40  10
FMY  92  76  93  76 /  30  10  30  10
GIF  90  75  92  75 /  70  20  40  20
SRQ  89  77  90  76 /  50  20  30  10
BKV  88  73  90  73 /  70  30  40  20
SPG  88  80  90  80 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 291403
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1003 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO THE NATURE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND SOUTHWEST COAST WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY LIMIT
COVERAGE AND PUSH STORMS INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS AND RAISE POPS HERE IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST AND LEFT THE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND CANNOT
RULE OUT STRONG GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FORECAST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. ELSEWHERE MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE FORECAST MAXES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY MIDDAY AND THE PGD/FMY/RSW TAF
SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL CAUSE
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TODAY
CAUSING SOME BRIEF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH DURING MIDWEEK WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  90  78 /  70  20  40  10
FMY  92  76  93  76 /  30  10  30  10
GIF  90  75  92  75 /  70  20  40  20
SRQ  89  77  90  76 /  50  20  30  10
BKV  88  73  90  73 /  70  30  40  20
SPG  88  80  90  80 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 291403
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1003 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO THE NATURE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND SOUTHWEST COAST WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY LIMIT
COVERAGE AND PUSH STORMS INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS AND RAISE POPS HERE IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST AND LEFT THE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND CANNOT
RULE OUT STRONG GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FORECAST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. ELSEWHERE MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE FORECAST MAXES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY MIDDAY AND THE PGD/FMY/RSW TAF
SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL CAUSE
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TODAY
CAUSING SOME BRIEF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH DURING MIDWEEK WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  90  78 /  70  20  40  10
FMY  92  76  93  76 /  30  10  30  10
GIF  90  75  92  75 /  70  20  40  20
SRQ  89  77  90  76 /  50  20  30  10
BKV  88  73  90  73 /  70  30  40  20
SPG  88  80  90  80 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 291403
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1003 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND INTO THE NATURE COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVES ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND SOUTHWEST COAST WHERE THE WESTERLY FLOW MAY LIMIT
COVERAGE AND PUSH STORMS INLAND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS AND RAISE POPS HERE IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...HAVE RAISED
POPS TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST AND LEFT THE
LIKELY POPS FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR FOR THE
REST OF TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND CANNOT
RULE OUT STRONG GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR TEMPERATURES AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FORECAST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. ELSEWHERE MORE
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE FORECAST MAXES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY MIDDAY AND THE PGD/FMY/RSW TAF
SITES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION WILL CAUSE
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH CONVECTION
SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS TODAY
CAUSING SOME BRIEF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTH DURING MIDWEEK WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
LOWER SEAS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  90  78 /  70  20  40  10
FMY  92  76  93  76 /  30  10  30  10
GIF  90  75  92  75 /  70  20  40  20
SRQ  89  77  90  76 /  50  20  30  10
BKV  88  73  90  73 /  70  30  40  20
SPG  88  80  90  80 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE



000
FXUS62 KKEY 291346
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
946 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZE ALOFT AS A SAL EVENT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. NO RETURNS CURRENTLY ON THE KEY WEST RADAR WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...ONE FROM THE LOWER KEYS EXTENDING BEYOND 60 NM SOUTHWEST
OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE TAIL END EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE KEYS AREA WHICH IS
THE CATALYST FOR THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY.

.FORECAST...
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT VERY GOOD
CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE MITIGATING FACTOR
FOR CLOUD LINES TODAY IS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVING OVER THE KEYS.
THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO A
MINIMUM...THEREFORE WILL KEEP DIME POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN BEHIND
THE SAL LAYER AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...THERE VERTICAL PROFILE WILL INCLUDE JUST
ENOUGH VEERING TO ADD IN LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXTENDING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL FRESHEN WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIALLY SOME BRIEF
SURGES TO NEAR CAUTIONARY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1920...THE DAILY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69 DEGREES WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291346
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
946 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HAZE ALOFT AS A SAL EVENT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. NO RETURNS CURRENTLY ON THE KEY WEST RADAR WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A FEW LINGERING
BOUNDARIES...ONE FROM THE LOWER KEYS EXTENDING BEYOND 60 NM SOUTHWEST
OF THE DRY TORTUGAS. A LONG WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE TAIL END EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MEANWHILE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE KEYS AREA WHICH IS
THE CATALYST FOR THE LIGHT WINDS TODAY.

.FORECAST...
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT VERY GOOD
CLOUD LINE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE MITIGATING FACTOR
FOR CLOUD LINES TODAY IS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER MOVING OVER THE KEYS.
THIS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TO A
MINIMUM...THEREFORE WILL KEEP DIME POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL RETURN BEHIND
THE SAL LAYER AS AN ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...THERE VERTICAL PROFILE WILL INCLUDE JUST
ENOUGH VEERING TO ADD IN LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE KEYS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY...WITH THESE CONDITIONS EXTENDING THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL FRESHEN WEDNESDAY WITH POTENTIALLY SOME BRIEF
SURGES TO NEAR CAUTIONARY CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1920...THE DAILY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 69 DEGREES WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KMLB 291331
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
931 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST NORTH OF
FL WITH ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING DEEP W/SW FLOW
OVER CENTRAL FL. CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF IS PUSHING ONSHORE
THE BIG BEND/NATURE COAST REGION OF WEST FL AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO LAKE COUNTY AND TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND WRF SHOWING HIGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AFT. MOS POPS ALSO CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HIGH SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS (60-70 PERCENT) IN FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVER AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTH
INTO THE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. HOWEVER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED...MAX TEMPS WILL EASILY REACH THE LOW 90S AND EVEN MID
90S ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST...SOUTH OF THE CAPE...AS SEA
BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM FROM STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION ALREADY PUSHING INTO LAKE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS.
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH. OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATERS WILL BE FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291331
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
931 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST NORTH OF
FL WITH ATL RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE AREA...KEEPING DEEP W/SW FLOW
OVER CENTRAL FL. CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF IS PUSHING ONSHORE
THE BIG BEND/NATURE COAST REGION OF WEST FL AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO LAKE COUNTY AND TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR THIS
MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND WRF SHOWING HIGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AFT. MOS POPS ALSO CONTINUE TO
REMAIN HIGH SO WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS (60-70 PERCENT) IN FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVER AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTH
INTO THE MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES. HOWEVER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED...MAX TEMPS WILL EASILY REACH THE LOW 90S AND EVEN MID
90S ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST...SOUTH OF THE CAPE...AS SEA
BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM FROM STRONGER OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION ALREADY PUSHING INTO LAKE COUNTY THIS
MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS.
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND OFFSHORE INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH. OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE.

MAIN CONCERN FOR BOATERS WILL BE FOR STRONGER OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/VOLKMER



000
FXUS62 KJAX 291325
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF SATE ROAD 16...IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA MAY INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA TO THE AFTERNOON BUT
IS SHOULD DESTABILIZE AGAIN LATER TODAY. NOT SEEING A LOT OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE. A
FEW CELLS MAY CLIP SOUTHERN CHARLTON AND CAMDEN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP THE TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS FOR THE FLORIDA FIELDS AS
THE CONVECTION REDEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LAFAYETTE COUNTY AREA THAT SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. NOCTURNAL
SURGES TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION...SCEC...LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  80  40  50  30
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/ENYEDI/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291325
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF SATE ROAD 16...IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA MAY INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA TO THE AFTERNOON BUT
IS SHOULD DESTABILIZE AGAIN LATER TODAY. NOT SEEING A LOT OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE. A
FEW CELLS MAY CLIP SOUTHERN CHARLTON AND CAMDEN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP THE TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS FOR THE FLORIDA FIELDS AS
THE CONVECTION REDEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LAFAYETTE COUNTY AREA THAT SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. NOCTURNAL
SURGES TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION...SCEC...LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  80  40  50  30
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/ENYEDI/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 291325
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...GENERALLY SOUTH OF SATE ROAD 16...IS SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. THE REMAINING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA MAY INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION IN THAT AREA TO THE AFTERNOON BUT
IS SHOULD DESTABILIZE AGAIN LATER TODAY. NOT SEEING A LOT OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA STATE LINE. A
FEW CELLS MAY CLIP SOUTHERN CHARLTON AND CAMDEN COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP THE TEMPO GROUPS IN THE TAFS FOR THE FLORIDA FIELDS AS
THE CONVECTION REDEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING
REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LAFAYETTE COUNTY AREA THAT SHOULD MOVE
EASTWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEK. NOCTURNAL
SURGES TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION...SCEC...LEVELS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  80  40  50  30
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/ENYEDI/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
DESPITE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. MAINTAINED PM VCTS ALL ALL
EAST COAST SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW OVER MIAMI-DADE
/POPS 30 PCT OR LESS/. WINDS BY LATE MORNING WILL BE SEA-BREEZE
DOMINATED. CONVECTION AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  76  92  77 /  50  30  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  30  20  20  10
MIAMI            93  78  92  79 /  30  20  30  10
NAPLES           92  77  93  77 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
DESPITE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. MAINTAINED PM VCTS ALL ALL
EAST COAST SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW OVER MIAMI-DADE
/POPS 30 PCT OR LESS/. WINDS BY LATE MORNING WILL BE SEA-BREEZE
DOMINATED. CONVECTION AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  76  92  77 /  50  30  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  30  20  20  10
MIAMI            93  78  92  79 /  30  20  30  10
NAPLES           92  77  93  77 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KKEY 290857
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
457 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE WEAK WESTERN EXTENT OF THE ATLANTIC`S SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE REACHES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT...WEAK AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE NOW SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
NEAR 5 MPH AT THE MAJORITY OF THE OBSERVING STATIONS. SKIES ARE
PARTLY CLOUDY BUT ARE COMPOSED OF THE DEBRIS OF LAST EVENING`S
CONVECTION. LOW CLOUDS ARE SCARCE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 75 TO 85.
THE KBYX RADAR IS VOID OF ECHOES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS TO GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
EASTERLY BREEZES WILL FILTER IN ON TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY FRESHENING
BREEZES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...A WEAKLY VEERING
VERTICAL PROFILE COMBINED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOUD LINE THIS AFTERNOON...AT LEAST
IN THEORY. YESTERDAY`S CLOUD LINE WAS A POOR PERFORMER EVEN THOUGH
WINDS WERE IDEAL. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR PREVENTED THE CONGEALING OF
CONGESTUS. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE ANALYSES AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SIMILAR MOISTURE LEVELS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...ONLY A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. CHANCES
REMAIN LOW TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO
THE LOWER 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP TO AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES AND WEAK UNDULATIONS IN MOISTURE WILL PREVAIL. NIGHTS WILL BE
WARM AND MUGGY WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S. A BREAK IN THE COMPRESSIONAL SUBSIDENCE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WEAK YET VERTICALLY CONNECTED SYSTEM
WILL DECREASE STATIC STABILITY AND FEATURE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. TIMING THESE FEATURES IS DIFFICULT...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT
AMONGST THE AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OPINIONS SOMETHING
WILL COME THROUGH WHICH WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. THEREFORE...WE
HAVE OPENED A WINDOW OF 30 PERCENT CHANCES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
FRESHENING BREEZES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PERIODS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
BOTH ISLAND TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF THE TERMINAL AERODOME
FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT AROUND 5
KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  80  89  81 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON  94  80  92  81 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FLING
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KMLB 290735
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE ALOFT GENERATING AN AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF THAT WILL MOVE CROSS OVER THE BIG
BEND/NATURE COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING. RADAR
MOSAIC LOOP SHOWING A LARGE WEST TO EAST AREA OF WEATHER IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH MATCHES
WELL WITH THE VORTICITY PATTERN THAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS MOISTURE RIBBON WL PUSH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDING
THE LIFT AND THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND 2 INCHES OR
MORE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S NORTH OF
ORLANDO/INTERSTATE 4 AND THE LOWER 90S TO THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW A AND THE ATMOSPHERE STARTING TO DRY/CAP IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
EARLY EVENING AND THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING. LOWS IN
LOW AND MID 70S.

TUE-WED...AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEEP LAYER WLY COMPONENT FLOW...INITIALLY ON
THE STRONG SIDE TUE AT STEERING LEVEL. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE
MOISTURE AND ROBUST WIND PROFILE ALOFT WL BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE E COAST. PRESENCE OF A
LIMITED EAST COAST BREEZE WL LIKELY FOCUS HIGHEST POP CHCS ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SCT COVERAGE SUITABLE AREAWIDE FOR THE
DESCRIPTOR. DURING WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. AN EARLIER THAN
NORMAL ONSET TO PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE GULF CST APPEARS
REASONABLE FROM AROUND OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING
SCATTERED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD
DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

EXTENDED...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING
NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU. THE FEATURE THEN DRIFTS
FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY
DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO THE REQUIREMENTS FOR SFC HEATING AND
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE
THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.
MARINE BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING NORTHERN AREAS EARLY MORNING THE
SPREADING DOWN THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
REMAIN MVFR THE AFTERNOON. OVERCAST VFR IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BRIEF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN
BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THE EVENING. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEP
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

TUE-THU...THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING SITUATED S OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT
WITH A LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFSHORE FROM THE
MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  72  90  74 /  70  20  50  30
MCO  90  73  90  74 /  70  20  50  20
MLB  90  74  90  73 /  70  20  50  20
VRB  91  73  91  72 /  60  30  50  20
LEE  88  74  90  75 /  70  20  40  20
SFB  89  74  92  75 /  70  20  50  20
ORL  89  75  91  75 /  70  20  50  20
FPR  91  71  92  71 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST



000
FXUS62 KMLB 290735
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE ALOFT GENERATING AN AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF THAT WILL MOVE CROSS OVER THE BIG
BEND/NATURE COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING. RADAR
MOSAIC LOOP SHOWING A LARGE WEST TO EAST AREA OF WEATHER IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH MATCHES
WELL WITH THE VORTICITY PATTERN THAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS MOISTURE RIBBON WL PUSH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDING
THE LIFT AND THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND 2 INCHES OR
MORE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S NORTH OF
ORLANDO/INTERSTATE 4 AND THE LOWER 90S TO THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW A AND THE ATMOSPHERE STARTING TO DRY/CAP IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
EARLY EVENING AND THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING. LOWS IN
LOW AND MID 70S.

TUE-WED...AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEEP LAYER WLY COMPONENT FLOW...INITIALLY ON
THE STRONG SIDE TUE AT STEERING LEVEL. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE
MOISTURE AND ROBUST WIND PROFILE ALOFT WL BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE E COAST. PRESENCE OF A
LIMITED EAST COAST BREEZE WL LIKELY FOCUS HIGHEST POP CHCS ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SCT COVERAGE SUITABLE AREAWIDE FOR THE
DESCRIPTOR. DURING WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. AN EARLIER THAN
NORMAL ONSET TO PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE GULF CST APPEARS
REASONABLE FROM AROUND OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING
SCATTERED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD
DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

EXTENDED...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING
NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU. THE FEATURE THEN DRIFTS
FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY
DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO THE REQUIREMENTS FOR SFC HEATING AND
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE
THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.
MARINE BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING NORTHERN AREAS EARLY MORNING THE
SPREADING DOWN THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
REMAIN MVFR THE AFTERNOON. OVERCAST VFR IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BRIEF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN
BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THE EVENING. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEP
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

TUE-THU...THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING SITUATED S OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT
WITH A LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFSHORE FROM THE
MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  72  90  74 /  70  20  50  30
MCO  90  73  90  74 /  70  20  50  20
MLB  90  74  90  73 /  70  20  50  20
VRB  91  73  91  72 /  60  30  50  20
LEE  88  74  90  75 /  70  20  40  20
SFB  89  74  92  75 /  70  20  50  20
ORL  89  75  91  75 /  70  20  50  20
FPR  91  71  92  71 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 290735
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE ALOFT GENERATING AN AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF THAT WILL MOVE CROSS OVER THE BIG
BEND/NATURE COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING. RADAR
MOSAIC LOOP SHOWING A LARGE WEST TO EAST AREA OF WEATHER IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH MATCHES
WELL WITH THE VORTICITY PATTERN THAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS MOISTURE RIBBON WL PUSH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDING
THE LIFT AND THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND 2 INCHES OR
MORE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S NORTH OF
ORLANDO/INTERSTATE 4 AND THE LOWER 90S TO THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW A AND THE ATMOSPHERE STARTING TO DRY/CAP IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
EARLY EVENING AND THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING. LOWS IN
LOW AND MID 70S.

TUE-WED...AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEEP LAYER WLY COMPONENT FLOW...INITIALLY ON
THE STRONG SIDE TUE AT STEERING LEVEL. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE
MOISTURE AND ROBUST WIND PROFILE ALOFT WL BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE E COAST. PRESENCE OF A
LIMITED EAST COAST BREEZE WL LIKELY FOCUS HIGHEST POP CHCS ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SCT COVERAGE SUITABLE AREAWIDE FOR THE
DESCRIPTOR. DURING WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. AN EARLIER THAN
NORMAL ONSET TO PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE GULF CST APPEARS
REASONABLE FROM AROUND OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING
SCATTERED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD
DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

EXTENDED...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING
NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU. THE FEATURE THEN DRIFTS
FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY
DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO THE REQUIREMENTS FOR SFC HEATING AND
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE
THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.
MARINE BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING NORTHERN AREAS EARLY MORNING THE
SPREADING DOWN THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
REMAIN MVFR THE AFTERNOON. OVERCAST VFR IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BRIEF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN
BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THE EVENING. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEP
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

TUE-THU...THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING SITUATED S OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT
WITH A LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFSHORE FROM THE
MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  72  90  74 /  70  20  50  30
MCO  90  73  90  74 /  70  20  50  20
MLB  90  74  90  73 /  70  20  50  20
VRB  91  73  91  72 /  60  30  50  20
LEE  88  74  90  75 /  70  20  40  20
SFB  89  74  92  75 /  70  20  50  20
ORL  89  75  91  75 /  70  20  50  20
FPR  91  71  92  71 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 290735
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS WITH MODELS
CONTINUING TO SHOW A DISTURBANCE ALOFT GENERATING AN AREA OF
CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF THAT WILL MOVE CROSS OVER THE BIG
BEND/NATURE COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING. RADAR
MOSAIC LOOP SHOWING A LARGE WEST TO EAST AREA OF WEATHER IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF JUST OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHICH MATCHES
WELL WITH THE VORTICITY PATTERN THAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS MOISTURE RIBBON WL PUSH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE MORNING. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDING
THE LIFT AND THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND 2 INCHES OR
MORE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN COOLED AIR SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 80S NORTH OF
ORLANDO/INTERSTATE 4 AND THE LOWER 90S TO THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODEL TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
SHOW A AND THE ATMOSPHERE STARTING TO DRY/CAP IN THE 850-700MB LAYER
EARLY EVENING AND THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION DECREASING. LOWS IN
LOW AND MID 70S.

TUE-WED...AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH DEEP LAYER WLY COMPONENT FLOW...INITIALLY ON
THE STRONG SIDE TUE AT STEERING LEVEL. THE COMBINATION OF AMPLE
MOISTURE AND ROBUST WIND PROFILE ALOFT WL BRING EARLY SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY TUE WITH ACTIVITY
SPREADING EWD INTO THE AFTERNOON TO THE E COAST. PRESENCE OF A
LIMITED EAST COAST BREEZE WL LIKELY FOCUS HIGHEST POP CHCS ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS WITH SCT COVERAGE SUITABLE AREAWIDE FOR THE
DESCRIPTOR. DURING WED...WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROMINENT. AN EARLIER THAN
NORMAL ONSET TO PCPN MOVING IN FROM THE GULF CST APPEARS
REASONABLE FROM AROUND OSCEOLA CO NWD WITH ADTL ACTIVITY BECOMING
SCATTERED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS ADT`L SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY DEVELOPMENT COMMENCES. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD
DURING THE PERIOD SHOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING.

EXTENDED...THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHOWN BY GFS DRIFTING
NWD TO A POSITION NR CENTRAL FL BY THU. THE FEATURE THEN DRIFTS
FURTHER NORTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. A LIGHTER WIND
REGIME WL LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS...SLIGHTLY
DELAYED FOR ONSET DUE TO THE REQUIREMENTS FOR SFC HEATING AND
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS TO INITIATE ACTIVITY. THE WEAK WIND PROFILE
THU-FRI WL FAVOR INTERIOR SECTIONS GENERALLY FOR BEST COVERAGE.
MARINE BASED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY SAT NIGHT/SUN WITH
SCT COVERAGE AREAWIDE A GOOD BET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CONDITIONS STARTING NORTHERN AREAS EARLY MORNING THE
SPREADING DOWN THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
REMAIN MVFR THE AFTERNOON. OVERCAST VFR IN THE EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS BRIEF 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHERN AREAS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN
BACK TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY THE EVENING. MODERATE SOUTHWEST WINDS KEEP
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE.

TUE-THU...THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMING SITUATED S OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDWEEK WL PROVIDE FAVORABLE MARINE CONDS DUE TO WLY COMPONENT
WITH A LIMITED SEABREEZE POTENTIAL. STORMS MOVING OFSHORE FROM THE
MAINLAND WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING HOURS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  72  90  74 /  70  20  50  30
MCO  90  73  90  74 /  70  20  50  20
MLB  90  74  90  73 /  70  20  50  20
VRB  91  73  91  72 /  60  30  50  20
LEE  88  74  90  75 /  70  20  40  20
SFB  89  74  92  75 /  70  20  50  20
ORL  89  75  91  75 /  70  20  50  20
FPR  91  71  92  71 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST



000
FXUS62 KTBW 290734
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
334 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
STRUNG ACROSS THE KEYS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA RESIDING IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THESE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE (MODEL PWAT VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 2.25
INCHES) TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE...BUT CHANCES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHES TO THE EAST. ON
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO INCH NORTHWARD...BUT
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN TODAY). MOISTURE WILL STILL BE MORE FAVORABLE OVER
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4...WITH SCATTERED STORMS IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FILLING IN FARTHER SOUTH AS THE
WESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN PUSHES THE CONVECTION INLAND.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING NORTH TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SW FLOW ACROSS THE NATURE COAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND IN THE
70S EACH MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING THREATENED AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT AS
HIGH. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD AGAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
SITTING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A COMPRESSED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO PEAK IN THE EXERCISE
CAUTION RANGE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TODAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND SETTLE IN ACROSS
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  90  78 /  60  20  40  10
FMY  92  76  93  76 /  30  10  30  10
GIF  90  75  92  75 /  60  20  40  20
SRQ  89  77  90  76 /  50  20  30  10
BKV  88  73  90  73 /  70  30  40  20
SPG  88  78  90  80 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 290734
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
334 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
STRUNG ACROSS THE KEYS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA RESIDING IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THESE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE (MODEL PWAT VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 2.25
INCHES) TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE...BUT CHANCES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHES TO THE EAST. ON
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO INCH NORTHWARD...BUT
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN TODAY). MOISTURE WILL STILL BE MORE FAVORABLE OVER
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4...WITH SCATTERED STORMS IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FILLING IN FARTHER SOUTH AS THE
WESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN PUSHES THE CONVECTION INLAND.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING NORTH TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SW FLOW ACROSS THE NATURE COAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND IN THE
70S EACH MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING THREATENED AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT AS
HIGH. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD AGAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
SITTING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A COMPRESSED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO PEAK IN THE EXERCISE
CAUTION RANGE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TODAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND SETTLE IN ACROSS
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  90  78 /  60  20  40  10
FMY  92  76  93  76 /  30  10  30  10
GIF  90  75  92  75 /  60  20  40  20
SRQ  89  77  90  76 /  50  20  30  10
BKV  88  73  90  73 /  70  30  40  20
SPG  88  78  90  80 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 290734
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
334 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
STRUNG ACROSS THE KEYS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA RESIDING IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THESE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE (MODEL PWAT VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 2.25
INCHES) TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE...BUT CHANCES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHES TO THE EAST. ON
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO INCH NORTHWARD...BUT
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN TODAY). MOISTURE WILL STILL BE MORE FAVORABLE OVER
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4...WITH SCATTERED STORMS IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FILLING IN FARTHER SOUTH AS THE
WESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN PUSHES THE CONVECTION INLAND.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING NORTH TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SW FLOW ACROSS THE NATURE COAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND IN THE
70S EACH MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING THREATENED AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT AS
HIGH. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD AGAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
SITTING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A COMPRESSED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO PEAK IN THE EXERCISE
CAUTION RANGE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TODAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND SETTLE IN ACROSS
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  90  78 /  60  20  40  10
FMY  92  76  93  76 /  30  10  30  10
GIF  90  75  92  75 /  60  20  40  20
SRQ  89  77  90  76 /  50  20  30  10
BKV  88  73  90  73 /  70  30  40  20
SPG  88  78  90  80 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 290734
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
334 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM EASTERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA...WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS
STRUNG ACROSS THE KEYS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA RESIDING IN BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES...WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TODAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...THESE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.

A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE (MODEL PWAT VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 2.25
INCHES) TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER SOUTH...ENOUGH MOISTURE
WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE...BUT CHANCES
ARE FORECAST TO BE NOT QUITE AS HIGH OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP CLEAR OUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHES TO THE EAST. ON
TUESDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO INCH NORTHWARD...BUT
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE (ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN TODAY). MOISTURE WILL STILL BE MORE FAVORABLE OVER
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 4...WITH SCATTERED STORMS IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN FILLING IN FARTHER SOUTH AS THE
WESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN PUSHES THE CONVECTION INLAND.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE ATLANTIC...WITH A WEAK TROUGH IN
THE UPPER LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING NORTH TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. S/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH SW FLOW ACROSS THE NATURE COAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK...BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON AND IN THE
70S EACH MORNING...EXCEPT AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING THREATENED AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON TIME FRAME. FARTHER SOUTH...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT AS
HIGH. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD AGAIN BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
SITTING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...A COMPRESSED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO PEAK IN THE EXERCISE
CAUTION RANGE NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TODAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AND SETTLE IN ACROSS
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  78  90  78 /  60  20  40  10
FMY  92  76  93  76 /  30  10  30  10
GIF  90  75  92  75 /  60  20  40  20
SRQ  89  77  90  76 /  50  20  30  10
BKV  88  73  90  73 /  70  30  40  20
SPG  88  78  90  80 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 290732
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AS OF 05Z THE SURFACE FRONT WAS STALLED ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
ALONG THE ALABAMA FLORIDA LINE. AS A RESULT DRIER AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS
WE EXPECT SHOWERS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE COAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR, POPS WILL BE LIMITED TO 30
PERCENT IN THE FLORIDA ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN
UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE
REGION WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. PW`S ARE FORECAST TO BE
BACK AROUND 2.0" BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
WILL SHOW DAYTIME POPS IN THE GOOD CHANCE (50%) RANGE WHICH IS ABOUT
NORMAL FOR LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

FAIRLY STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
NEAR 2 INCHES. ON FRIDAY, THE EASTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH
DE-AMPLIFIES ALLOWING THE BERMUDA RIDGE TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
THE GULF. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FOURTH
OF JULY OF WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE BEGINNING TO BREAKDOWN BY LATE
SUNDAY. POPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS (40-50%) THURSDAY AND
BELOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. POPS WILL BE AT
OR BELOW CLIMO ON SUNDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY] FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ABY OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR
CEILINGS. ALSO INCLUDED MVFR TEMPO GROUPS AT DHN AND VLD FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS MORNING. AFTER 15Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND WETTING RAINS THE PAST FEW DAYS, THERE
ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT HIGH RAIN RATES AND RAIN COVERAGE COVERAGE
THROUGH MONDAY, RELATIVELY STRONG WEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE
CONVECTION MOVING QUICKLY, AVOIDING HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS IN ALL
BUT A FEW SPOTS. SOME RIVERS HAVE RISEN FROM HEAVIER RAINS LAST
WEEK, BUT ALL WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   91  71  92  74  92 /  30  30  50  30  50
PANAMA CITY   87  76  88  78  88 /  30  30  40  30  40
DOTHAN        91  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  50  30  50
ALBANY        92  71  92  72  91 /  10  10  50  30  50
VALDOSTA      91  70  92  72  92 /  20  20  50  30  50
CROSS CITY    88  72  92  75  92 /  70  30  50  30  50
APALACHICOLA  88  76  89  78  89 /  40  30  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290716
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING FROM EASTERN AREAS TODAY TO WESTERN AREAS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2
FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  76  92  77 /  50  30  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  30  20  20  10
MIAMI            93  78  92  79 /  30  20  30  10
NAPLES           92  77  93  77 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KJAX 290628
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT NUDGES SOUTH
TOWARD THE FL/GA BORDER IN THE AFTN. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS NE FL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL USE
HIGH END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NE FL...WITH LESSER POPS ACROSS SE GA AS SOME DRY
AIR TRIES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP FOR FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE GA. WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NE FL...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA TO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR OTHER AREAS. FOR
TNGT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS NE FL. RESIDUAL
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL. LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

TUESDAY...DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO THE N/NW. BRIEFLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE GA WILL REMOISTEN TUESDAY...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MOST AREAS. ONCE AGAIN...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING
INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS AT NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE GREATEST TSTM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
USE TEMPO GROUPS FOR VQQ/GNV/SGJ 18-23Z...WITH PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WILL USE VCTS FOR THE OTHER SITES THIS
AFTN IN MORE SCATTERED TS COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES TO CAUTION LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS TODAY WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  60  40  50  20
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 290628
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT NUDGES SOUTH
TOWARD THE FL/GA BORDER IN THE AFTN. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS NE FL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL USE
HIGH END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NE FL...WITH LESSER POPS ACROSS SE GA AS SOME DRY
AIR TRIES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP FOR FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE GA. WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NE FL...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA TO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR OTHER AREAS. FOR
TNGT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS NE FL. RESIDUAL
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL. LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

TUESDAY...DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO THE N/NW. BRIEFLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE GA WILL REMOISTEN TUESDAY...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MOST AREAS. ONCE AGAIN...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING
INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS AT NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE GREATEST TSTM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
USE TEMPO GROUPS FOR VQQ/GNV/SGJ 18-23Z...WITH PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WILL USE VCTS FOR THE OTHER SITES THIS
AFTN IN MORE SCATTERED TS COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES TO CAUTION LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS TODAY WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  60  40  50  20
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON



000
FXUS62 KJAX 290628
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT NUDGES SOUTH
TOWARD THE FL/GA BORDER IN THE AFTN. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS NE FL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL USE
HIGH END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NE FL...WITH LESSER POPS ACROSS SE GA AS SOME DRY
AIR TRIES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP FOR FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE GA. WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NE FL...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA TO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR OTHER AREAS. FOR
TNGT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS NE FL. RESIDUAL
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL. LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

TUESDAY...DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO THE N/NW. BRIEFLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE GA WILL REMOISTEN TUESDAY...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MOST AREAS. ONCE AGAIN...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING
INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS AT NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE GREATEST TSTM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
USE TEMPO GROUPS FOR VQQ/GNV/SGJ 18-23Z...WITH PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WILL USE VCTS FOR THE OTHER SITES THIS
AFTN IN MORE SCATTERED TS COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES TO CAUTION LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS TODAY WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  60  40  50  20
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON



000
FXUS62 KJAX 290628
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT NUDGES SOUTH
TOWARD THE FL/GA BORDER IN THE AFTN. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS NE FL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL USE
HIGH END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NE FL...WITH LESSER POPS ACROSS SE GA AS SOME DRY
AIR TRIES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP FOR FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE GA. WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NE FL...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA TO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR OTHER AREAS. FOR
TNGT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS NE FL. RESIDUAL
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL. LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

TUESDAY...DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO THE N/NW. BRIEFLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE GA WILL REMOISTEN TUESDAY...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MOST AREAS. ONCE AGAIN...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING
INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS AT NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE GREATEST TSTM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
USE TEMPO GROUPS FOR VQQ/GNV/SGJ 18-23Z...WITH PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WILL USE VCTS FOR THE OTHER SITES THIS
AFTN IN MORE SCATTERED TS COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES TO CAUTION LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS TODAY WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  60  40  50  20
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON



000
FXUS62 KJAX 290628
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT NUDGES SOUTH
TOWARD THE FL/GA BORDER IN THE AFTN. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS NE FL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL USE
HIGH END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NE FL...WITH LESSER POPS ACROSS SE GA AS SOME DRY
AIR TRIES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP FOR FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE GA. WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NE FL...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA TO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR OTHER AREAS. FOR
TNGT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS NE FL. RESIDUAL
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL. LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

TUESDAY...DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO THE N/NW. BRIEFLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE GA WILL REMOISTEN TUESDAY...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MOST AREAS. ONCE AGAIN...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING
INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS AT NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE GREATEST TSTM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
USE TEMPO GROUPS FOR VQQ/GNV/SGJ 18-23Z...WITH PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WILL USE VCTS FOR THE OTHER SITES THIS
AFTN IN MORE SCATTERED TS COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES TO CAUTION LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS TODAY WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  60  40  50  20
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON



000
FXUS62 KJAX 290628
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED ACROSS MOST AREAS EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NE GOMEX WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE
INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WILL USE SCATTERED POPS FOR ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE GULF LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

LATER TODAY/TNGT...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS IT NUDGES SOUTH
TOWARD THE FL/GA BORDER IN THE AFTN. MOIST SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM ACROSS NE FL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WILL USE
HIGH END SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS BY LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON FOR NE FL...WITH LESSER POPS ACROSS SE GA AS SOME DRY
AIR TRIES TO WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH LITTLE/NO
PRECIP FOR FAR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SE GA. WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LAPSE RATES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS NE FL...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA TO THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR OTHER AREAS. FOR
TNGT...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY ACROSS NE FL. RESIDUAL
EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL DECREASE...WITH AN ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWR LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
FL. LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL FOR LOWS TNGT.

TUESDAY...DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING JUST TO THE N/NW. BRIEFLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS SE GA WILL REMOISTEN TUESDAY...SO EXPECT
SCATTERED AFTN SHWRS/TSTMS FOR MOST AREAS. ONCE AGAIN...A
FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING STORMS ALONG THE GULF COAST SPREADING INLAND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME
STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY MAY BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH.
TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...LINGERING TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING STORMS NEAR GULF COAST SPREADING
INLAND TOWARDS EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVE. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY...A BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE FL
PENINSULA RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS AND A TRANSITION TO MORE
DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION EACH DAY. BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS WHERE SEABREEZES AND OTHER OUTFLOWS MERGE. RISING
HEIGHTS RESULTS IN TEMPS WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE MID 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 AT THE COAST. LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WARMER READINGS AT NIGHT ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WITH THE GREATEST TSTM THREAT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...WILL
USE TEMPO GROUPS FOR VQQ/GNV/SGJ 18-23Z...WITH PERIODS OF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. WILL USE VCTS FOR THE OTHER SITES THIS
AFTN IN MORE SCATTERED TS COVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK. NOCTURNAL SURGES TO CAUTION LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS TODAY WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  93  72 /  20  10  40  30
SSI  85  74  88  77 /  30  10  40  30
JAX  88  72  92  74 /  40  20  50  30
SGJ  85  73  88  76 /  50  20  50  30
GNV  87  72  90  73 /  60  40  50  20
OCF  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ALLEN/PETERSON



000
FXUS62 KMFL 290619
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME DRIER AIR ALREADY ARRIVING, WITH PWATS THROUGH H4 DOWN TO
1.6" ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS A SHRTWV CUTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO NORTHERN FL TODAY, SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
SUCH THAT VCTS MIGHT NOT BE MERITED FOR MONDAY PM WITH CONVECTION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED NEAR PBI, WHERE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  75  92  78 /  40  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  80 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  92  81 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           91  76  92  77 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290619
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME DRIER AIR ALREADY ARRIVING, WITH PWATS THROUGH H4 DOWN TO
1.6" ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS A SHRTWV CUTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO NORTHERN FL TODAY, SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
SUCH THAT VCTS MIGHT NOT BE MERITED FOR MONDAY PM WITH CONVECTION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED NEAR PBI, WHERE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  75  92  78 /  40  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  80 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  92  81 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           91  76  92  77 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 290619
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME DRIER AIR ALREADY ARRIVING, WITH PWATS THROUGH H4 DOWN TO
1.6" ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS A SHRTWV CUTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO NORTHERN FL TODAY, SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
SUCH THAT VCTS MIGHT NOT BE MERITED FOR MONDAY PM WITH CONVECTION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED NEAR PBI, WHERE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  75  92  78 /  40  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  80 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  92  81 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           91  76  92  77 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 290619
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME DRIER AIR ALREADY ARRIVING, WITH PWATS THROUGH H4 DOWN TO
1.6" ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS A SHRTWV CUTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO NORTHERN FL TODAY, SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
SUCH THAT VCTS MIGHT NOT BE MERITED FOR MONDAY PM WITH CONVECTION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED NEAR PBI, WHERE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  75  92  78 /  40  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  80 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  92  81 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           91  76  92  77 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




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