[top]
000
FXUS62 KKEY 181950
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
350 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE PENINSULA...INITIATING LATE IN THE DAY. THE FEW SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE KEYS WATERS
ARE ON THE WANE AND POSE NO THREAT TO MARINE OR LAND AT THIS HOUR.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN
STATIONS ALONG THE REEF...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT LONG KEY AND THE
ISLAND TERMINALS.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
DUE THE RIDGE NEARBY THE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR IN THE
FORECAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND EXPECT RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE DICTATED BY PERIODIC PLUMES OF MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FROM THE MAINLAND AND POSSIBLY CUBA. THE VERTICAL
PROFILE HAS LITTLE TO SHOW THAT WOULD LEAD TO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO INDICATE THIS AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AND ANTI CYCLONIC
CURVATURE ALOFT MAKE IT REASONABLE TO LEAVE THE CHANCE SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE RIDGE WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A WEAK LOW (NON-TROPICAL) DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COULD DRY
THINGS OUT A BIT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE
APPROACH FOR THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS BEFORE JUMPING ON THE BAND
WAGON. ALL IN ALL A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
BREEZES ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS. NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 110 DEG
BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1917...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST FELL TO 67 DEGREES. THIS IS THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE
FOR MAY 18TH. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 78 87 78 87 / 10 10 20 30
MARATHON 79 90 78 89 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
[top]
000
FXUS62 KTBW 181931
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
331 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
EVENTUALLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATE MONDAY AROUND A RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWEST ACROSS FLORIDA FROM OUT
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT THE SEA BREEZES WILL
MOVE INLAND AND WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP. CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
STORMS OVER ALABAMA/GEORGIA AS LOCAL WRF MODELS ARE BRINGING A
PIECE OF THIS INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
INDICATING STORMS WILL POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION DOWN THE
SPINE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. BASED ON THIS HAVE
GONE WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND WITH
RATHER LIGHT FLOW THE SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.8 INCHES AND
THEREFORE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE SEA BREEZES WE SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED STORMS POP UP...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND AREAS. CONVECTION
COULD DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST DURING SUNDAY EVENING AND WIND
DOWN AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC FLOW RETURNS. DAYTIME HIGHS
EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA...AS A WEAK TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. GENERALLY E/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES
AT 30-40 PERCENT WITH THE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S-LOWER 70S EACH MORNING AND IN THE MID 80S COASTAL TO LOWER
90S INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AND PULL IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR. HAVE
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF MOST OF THE
TERMINALS...EXCEPT LAKELAND...IN INTERIOR FLORIDA UNTIL 04Z.
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN LAKELAND AND PUNTA GORDA BETWEEN 10-14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH CHANGING WIND DIRECTIONS DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE RATHER LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE FLOW WILL INCREASE SOME...BUT STILL NOT
EXPECTING ANY FLAGS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 73 88 73 87 / 10 30 20 40
FMY 71 91 71 90 / 10 30 20 40
GIF 70 91 70 88 / 40 40 20 50
SRQ 70 87 70 88 / 10 30 20 30
BKV 65 89 66 88 / 10 30 20 40
SPG 74 88 74 86 / 10 30 20 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM...24/COLSON
AVIATION...72/NOAH
[top]
000
FXUS62 KTAE 181903
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Scattered showers are continuing to move through the region this
afternoon and will gradually dissipate after sunset as the
instability of the day diminishes. Leftover cloud cover from
earlier convective activity will still linger over the region and
likely limit overall fog potential tonight.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
An early summertime pattern with high pressure east of the Florida
Peninsula will keep light southerly flow in place across the
region. Despite the southerly flow, deep layer moisture is notably
absent and this will serve to limit pop chances through the first
part of the week. Rain chances of only 20 to 30 percent each
afternoon with the best potential in the Southeastern Big Bend.
Temperatures will be noticeably warmer and more typical of late May
with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
Long range models in general agreement with the overall pattern for
this time period. An upper level ridge prevails across the region
Tuesday and Wednesday with an upper low in the northern/central
plains. This pattern shifts east later in the week resulting in a
weak trough across the area for Thursday and Friday. By Saturday
current trends are pointing toward ridging across the central CONUS.
POPs will increase for the Thursday-Friday period to 30-40% and drop
off to isolated activity for Tuesday and Saturday. Expect
typical diurnal cycle convection with highs and overnight lows both
slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 19Z Saturday]...
Saturday 18Z-22Z expect scattered thunderstorms affecting
KABY-KTLH-KVLD. From Sat 22Z to Sun 00Z expect showers and tstms to
gradually dissipate. Overnight low ceilings and some patchy fog will
redevelop, especially in areas that received rain this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate
our coastal waters for the next several days, with just some minor
enhancements near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days, thus red flag conditions are not anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 63 90 65 90 66 / 10 10 10 10 10
Panama City 67 84 68 87 69 / 0 10 10 10 10
Dothan 67 89 67 91 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
Albany 67 90 69 91 67 / 10 20 10 10 10
Valdosta 65 90 66 90 65 / 20 20 20 20 10
Cross City 65 88 64 87 64 / 10 20 10 20 10
Apalachicola 65 83 66 84 67 / 0 10 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Hollingsworth
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Godsey
[top]
000
FXUS62 KMLB 181840
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
240 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY/TONIGHT...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING. GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL OCCUR WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION WEST OF ORLANDO TOWARD SUNSET WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
OVERNIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S/NEAR 70 DEGREES.
SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL S/SE FLOW
PERSISTS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL PRODUCE LIGHT ENOUGH WINDS FOR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
TO MOVE INLAND AND COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE DAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. LINGERING DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND COOL 500MB
TEMPS AROUND -10C WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONGER INLAND STORMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST
TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND.
MON-SAT (MODIFIED)...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. MID LEVEL CAP THAT WAS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. DEEPENING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS PULLING MORE
MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. GREATEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE FORECAST
TO BE MID WEEK WHICH WOULD CORRELATE TO THE HIGHEST POP AT AROUND
40 PERCENT. MID LEVEL DRY AIR RETURNS BY FRIDAY BUT SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEA/LAKE BREEZES INTERACTING SHOULD PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DROPS
OFF TO AROUND 20 PERCENT SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL CAP/S EFFECT
TAKES CHARGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR. DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID
80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES. MID AND UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
HAD MORE TIME TO RISE BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. SEA BREEZE COLLISION WEST OF ORLANDO TOWARD SUNSET
WILL GENERATE ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO EARLY EVENING PRODUCING
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS. ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR STORMS BETWEEN 21-01Z
FOR KSFB/KMCO/KISM/KLEE WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE GREATER. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO TOMORROW WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE AFT.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AND
ACROSS THE WATERS TOMORROW WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM 2-3 FEET NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FEET OFFSHORE.
MON-WED...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
3 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE AND 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE. A 2 TO 3 FOOT LONG
PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW TO
MODERATE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTN ESP INTERIOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 85 69 83 / 10 30 20 20
MCO 69 89 70 88 / 30 40 20 30
MLB 70 84 73 85 / 10 20 10 20
VRB 70 85 72 85 / 20 20 20 20
LEE 70 89 71 87 / 30 40 20 30
SFB 69 89 71 88 / 30 40 20 30
ORL 69 88 72 88 / 30 40 20 30
FPR 69 84 71 85 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/KELLY
[top]
000
FXUS62 KMFL 181838
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...STORMIER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...
.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS DEVELOPING ABOUT
AS EXPECTED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZES AND
MOVING LITTLE. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE CONVECTION
STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATING OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE PENINSULA
MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, WITH METRO AREAS ALONG BOTH COASTS MOSTLY DRY. SOME OF
THE CONVECTION COULD WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE GULF COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL CONSIST OF A LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
ATLANTIC WITH E/SE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS, AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC,
INCLUDING FLORIDA. FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, LITTLE CHANGE FROM
TODAY`S PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH NIGHT/MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND SCT TSTMS INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, TRENDS POINT TOWARD AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AND WET/STORMY PATTERN AS THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
MOISTENS UP AND A 500 MB LOW DROPS DOWN OVER FLORIDA. THE
COMBINATION OF MOIST LOW LEVELS AND COLD MID/UPPER LEVELS (WITH A
POSSIBLE BOOST FROM A 50-60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO) WILL LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS, INCLUDING
NIGHT/MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND OVER BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS. AS A RESULT, RAISED POPS INTO THE 30/40 RANGE ALL AREAS AND
THESE MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF
TRENDS CONTINUE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW COLD MID-LEVELS ON MONDAY
WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -11C, SO THERE`S CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND PERHAPS TUESDAY AS
WELL.
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS KEEP THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER FLORIDA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN TEMPORARILY LIFT THE
LOW NORTH ON FLORIDA ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SURFACE,
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A WEAK LOW OVER SW FLORIDA THURSDAY MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE DETAILS OF THESE
FEATURES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON OUR WEATHER ARE STILL A LITTLE
UNCLEAR, BUT IT APPEARS AS IF A GENERALLY UNSTABLE PATTERN MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEK WITH AT LEAST SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS MOST DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE OVERALL SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH FURTHER WEST AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
INLAND. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF KAPF.
EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO REMAIN MOSTLY INLAND OF THE
TAF SITES...SO ONLY MENTIONED VCSH IN THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.
MOSTLY SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 3-6 KFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SE WINDS AROUND 12 KNOTS EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AND TO AROUND 5
KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. SE WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS SUNDAY AFTER 14-15Z. FOR KAPF...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST. THE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REDEVELOP NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. STORM FOCUS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE FARTHER WEST/INLAND.
&&
.MARINE...
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS BUT REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY GOOD
BOATING CONDITIONS (OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WATERS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT) WITH ONLY A SMALL NORTHEAST
SWELL OFF THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. SOME PATCHY FOG ISN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION OVER THE INTERIOR THE NEXT TWO NIGHTS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN FORECASTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 86 74 86 / 20 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 86 75 88 / 20 20 20 30
MIAMI 76 87 75 87 / 20 20 20 30
NAPLES 72 89 71 88 / 20 30 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...84/AK
[top]
000
FXUS62 KJAX 181824
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
224 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ARE MOVING INTO NRN PORTION OF SE GA. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ATLC SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND AND SKIES CLEARING NEAR THE
COAST. LATEST HI-RES MODELS SHOW A N-S LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND ALSO A
WIDER SWATH OVER SE GA WHERE THE EARLIER OUTFLOWS INTERACT WITH
THE SBRZ. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA THIS EVENING AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THE
ADDED UPPER SUPPORT AND INCREASED MOISTURE. SHOWERS WILL THEN
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF NORMAL...IN THE MID 60S INLAND ANE NEAR 70 COAST.
SUN/SUN NIGHT...PWATS (PRECIP WATER) AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES AND WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BEGIN AROUND NOON ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE INLAND AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SBRZ ADVANCE INLAND. HAVE POPS IN 40% RANGE...BUT MAY NEED TO
GO HIGHER IF FORECAST MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER 80S INLAND
AND LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MON-WED...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MID LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF INTO THE TN VALLEY. AN IMPULSE ROLLING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE RIDGE MAY ALSO ENHANCE STORMS ON MON AND HAVE SCTD POPS. NO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING IS EXPECTED TUE/WED AND WILL KEEP ISOLD
TO SCTD STORMS. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
THU-SAT...AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
ENHANCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AOA
NORMAL THU/FRI...THEN POSSIBLY A FEW DEG COOLER SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE SCENE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD.
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY EVENING AS SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. VCTS HAS
BEEN INCLUDED AT ALL SITES 22Z-03Z WHEN HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THINGS WILL BE QUIESCENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT A BRIEF
WIND SURGE EACH NIGHT BRINGING WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA
BREEZES DEVELOPING OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 88 66 89 / 40 40 30 30
SSI 71 82 71 83 / 30 30 20 20
JAX 67 86 68 86 / 40 40 30 30
SGJ 69 83 70 82 / 20 30 20 20
GNV 65 89 65 88 / 50 40 30 40
OCF 66 90 67 88 / 40 40 30 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/SANDRIK/GUILLET
000
FXUS62 KMLB 181359
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
959 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA
TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. STILL RELATIVELY DRY THIS MORNING WITH
12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS FLORIDA SHOWING PW VALUES AROUND 1.2-1.3
INCHES. HOWEVER WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTENING SHOULD SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFT. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ALSO ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LATE TODAY WITH THE COLLISION OF THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT (AROUND -10 TO -11C AT 500MB) WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONG STORMS FORMING FROM THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION. MAIN THREATS WILL BE SMALL HAIL...STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST AND UP TO AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED. ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED INTO THE AFT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION
OVER THE INTERIOR AFT 21Z. ANY STORMS WILL PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL THEN DIMINISH TOWARD
MIDNIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT FROM KVRB SOUTHWARD.
&&
.MARINE...RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP E/SE WINDS OVER
THE WATERS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET
NEARSHORE TO 3-4 FEET OFFSHORE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
WEITLICH/KELLY
000
FXUS62 KKEY 181356
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
956 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A COULD OF SMALL SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON THE KBYX RADAR...WHILE
PULSING...THESE ARE WEAK AND DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS ARE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN
STATIONS...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. A RIDGE IS
TRAPPED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA BY A UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.
.FORECAST...
THE LIFTING MECHANISMS FOR SHOWERS HAS BEEN SUBDUED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES DOWN TO DIME POPS. ALTHOUGH PWAT
VALUES ARE NEAR NORMAL AND ABOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXPECT THE
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN LIMITED. WINDS ARE WEAK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH...AND WILL KEEP THE STATUS QUO FROM THE
MORNING FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES SOUTHEAST WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST
BREEZES ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS. NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. THE PROBABILITY OF MVFR
OR IFR CIGS OR VSBYS DUE TO SMALL PASSING SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND NONE WILL BE ADVERTISED.
WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 110 DEG BELOW 10 KNOTS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1917...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST FELL TO 67 DEGREES. THIS IS THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE
FOR MAY 18TH. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTAE 181355
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
955 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013
.NEAR TERM [Until 8 PM This Evening]...
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in association with a mid
level impulse that turned southeastward early this morning across
East Central Alabama. Questions remain as to whether this
convective complex will sustain itself long enough to have a
significant impact on our forecast area today. Already, a few showers
and storms have drifted into the northwestern portion of the area,
and recent trends from radar imagery across East Central Alabama
do show signs of reintensification of the storms.
The morning KTAE sounding does show some favorable thermal
profiles above 700 mb where the lapse rates are relatively
steep, on the order of 7.5 to 8 deg C/Km. However, moderate
heating is necessary today to really make full use of this
favorable profile aloft. A warm layer from about 850-700mb will
limit more robust updrafts early in the day until surface temps
reach the mid 80s.
High resolution guidance continues to have issues with this
particular system, but most show the cluster impacting Southern
Georgia through about 18z before diminishing through the
afternoon. While this seems plausible as diminished heating in the
northern counties will limit overall destabilization, areas to the
south, along the Florida border could see late day development as
mesoscale boundaries emanating from the convection across our
northern counties interacts with the sea breeze front. The
strongest storms today would have potential to produce some small
hail and gusty winds. The overall severe potential is low.
Made a few updates to the inherited forecast to favor greater rain
chances across the northern areas and indicate a more conditional
potential further to the south across North Florida.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...
Very summerlike conditions are expected across the region for
both Sunday and Monday, as the shortwave Trof Axis, which will
begin the weekend to our north, gradually slides eastward to a
position off the eastern seaboard by Monday afternoon. This will
allow for Upper Level ridging to build in from the west, with High
Temps expected to reach the lower 90s each day over the interior,
with lower to perhaps mid 80s near the coast. This shortwave Trof
may provide just enough lift and instability to combine with the
daytime heating to produce isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. The best chances for rain will be across eastern
portions of the CWA (nearest the Trof), but even here, 30% should
be the greatest value.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 14Z Saturday]...
See the Near Term discussion above for a synopsis of the evolution
of this mornings complex of storms. Generally VFR conditions will
prevail today once the morning ceilings scatter out. However,
expect MVFR ceilings and visibilities within areas of rain,
impacting primarily KABY and KDHN through midday. Overnight
tonight, expect more widespread low ceiling and fog development.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our coastal
waters for the next several days, with just some minor enhancements
near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days, with relatively light transport winds and deep
mixing heights. Thus, Red Flag conditions are not expected in the
foreseeable future.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 87 62 91 64 91 / 40 10 20 10 20
Panama City 81 67 84 68 85 / 30 10 10 10 10
Dothan 84 65 90 66 92 / 70 20 20 10 10
Albany 84 64 90 66 91 / 70 20 20 30 20
Valdosta 90 63 92 64 92 / 60 20 30 20 30
Cross City 88 63 88 65 89 / 20 10 20 10 30
Apalachicola 82 66 82 66 84 / 20 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Godsey
000
FXUS62 KJAX 181344
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
944 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL AL/GA AND NOW SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS MODELS
SUGGESTED. A VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO SE GA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. KJAX
12Z SOUNDING SHOWS PWAT IS 1.23 INCHES WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO
MODEL AND SATELLITE PWATS. MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTN WITH RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWING PWAT UP TO 1.7 INCHES IN A
LENGTHWISE STRIP OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES. POPS HAD BEEN CAPPED AT
30%...AND WILL WAIT UNTIL 12Z MODEL RUN TO DETERMINE IF POPS NEED
TO BE BUMPED UP NEAR THE HWY 301 AND U.S. 1 CORRIDORS. TEMPS ARE
ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES TO HIGHS NEAR 90 INLAND AND MID 80S COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. HAVE VCTS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE EVENING AND WILL
FINE TUNE TIMING WITH 18Z ISSUANCE.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ARE BENIGN OVER THE WATERS...WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT
AND 2 FT SEAS AT 8 AM. WINDS/SEAS WILL KICK UP A BIT IN THE AFTN.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SWELLS
REMAINING 2 FT OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 89 66 88 67 / 30 30 40 30
SSI 82 71 82 71 / 20 20 30 20
JAX 86 67 87 67 / 30 30 40 20
SGJ 83 69 83 70 / 20 20 30 20
GNV 89 65 89 65 / 30 30 40 30
OCF 91 66 90 67 / 30 30 40 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/GUILLET/
000
FXUS62 KTBW 181338
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
938 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FROM NEAR SARASOTA SOUTH THROUGH
PUNTA GORDA HAS FOR THE MOST PART LIFTED AND DISSIPATED WITH
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. FOR THE REST OF
TODAY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST
FROM OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP AS THEY MOVE INLAND. HOWEVER...OVERALL
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH MORNING TBW SOUNDING INDICATING THAT
THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL ONLY AROUND 1.3 INCHES SO THE
CURRENT 20 POPS NEAR THE COAST AND 30 PERCENT INTERIOR LOOK OK
AT THIS TIME. OVERALL THE CURRENT GRIDS/ZONE FORECAST ARE GOOD
WITH NO MORNING UPDATE PLANNED.
&&
.AVIATION...
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION CREATED PATCHY
CEILINGS AROUND 1000 FEET ALONG WITH SOME DENSE FOG AT PUNTA
GORDA...HOWEVER THIS MIXED OUT. GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE
WELL INLAND WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION EAST OF MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEREFORE LEFT OUT OF TAFS
FOR THAT REASON. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT PGD NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY...
OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE REST OF AREA VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
RATHER LIGHT WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ON
LAND...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFT OUT INTO
MAINLY THE SOUTHERN WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. PRESENT MARINE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR LATE
MORNING FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 71 89 72 / 10 10 30 10
FMY 91 72 90 71 / 10 10 30 10
GIF 91 70 90 70 / 30 20 30 20
SRQ 87 70 87 70 / 10 10 30 10
BKV 91 66 88 66 / 10 10 30 10
SPG 87 73 87 74 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE...69/CLOSE
AVIATION...72/NOAH
000
FXUS62 KMFL 181305
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING DATA INDICATES A MOISTENING TREND OF THE LOCAL
AIR MASS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC, WITH EARLIER
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL. THIS ALL POINTS TO A
GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREAS WHERE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL FOCUS CONVERGENCE. MINOR MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COOL
THE MID-LEVELS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON, ACTING TO ERODE MID-LEVEL
CAPPING AND HELPING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR/LAKE AREAS. LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS.
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY MOVE LITTLE OR DRIFT
EAST, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN METRO/COASTAL AREAS ALONG BOTH COASTS
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ALL, NO CHANGES OF NOTE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.
MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS TO PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...KEPT VCSH MENTION AT ALL
EAST COAST SITES. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH A DEVELOPED GULF BREEZE. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EACH DAY. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS PERSISTENT AND IN
GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE
MS VALLEY TRAILING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ADVANCES E-SEWD OVER THE
STATE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY FALL OVER THE STATE BY THE END
OF THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR
LOCATIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA REFLECT THIS AND INDICATE SOME MID-
LEVEL COOLING BY 00Z (H5 TEMPS AROUND -11C) WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPENING (-6 TO -7 C/KM). THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE FSU GRIDDED LIGHTNING PROBABILITY DATABASE AND THE
LATEST GRIDDED MOS THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY
OUTPUTTING 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THESE INTERIOR LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 650 MB
AND 700 MB ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR EN-TRAINING INTO
ANY DEVELOPING CELLS. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS (40-55 MPH). THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES BETWEEN THE WRF AND NAM GENERALLY LINE UP WELL AND
DEPICT SOME ACTIVITY INITIATING INLAND AND TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
PERIODS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THE EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FAVORING INTERIOR AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
EAST COAST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CONFLUENT
BOUNDARIES SETTING UP DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS AND RADIATIONAL
CLOUD-TOP COOLING.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF GENERALLY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND INDICATE A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACTIVITY EACH DAY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING THE
RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY.
AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL MODELS INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
PUSH THEM INLAND ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS UNDER WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH A DEVELOPED GULF BREEZE. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
NORTHEAST OF THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 87 75 87 75 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 89 71 89 71 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 181140
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. STILL EXPECT A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS TO PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THEREFORE...KEPT VCSH MENTION AT ALL
EAST COAST SITES. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH A DEVELOPED GULF BREEZE. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EACH DAY. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS PERSISTENT AND IN
GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE
MS VALLEY TRAILING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ADVANCES E-SEWD OVER THE
STATE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY FALL OVER THE STATE BY THE END
OF THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR
LOCATIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA REFLECT THIS AND INDICATE SOME MID-
LEVEL COOLING BY 00Z (H5 TEMPS AROUND -11C) WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPENING (-6 TO -7 C/KM). THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE FSU GRIDDED LIGHTNING PROBABILITY DATABASE AND THE
LATEST GRIDDED MOS THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY
OUTPUTTING 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THESE INTERIOR LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 650 MB
AND 700 MB ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO
ANY DEVELOPING CELLS. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS (40-55 MPH). THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES BETWEEN THE WRF AND NAM GENERALLY LINE UP WELL AND
DEPICT SOME ACTIVITY INITIATING INLAND AND TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
PERIODS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THE EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FAVORING INTERIOR AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
EAST COAST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CONFLUENT
BOUNDARIES SETTING UP DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS AND RADIATIONAL
CLOUD-TOP COOLING.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF GENERALLY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND INDICATE A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACTIVITY EACH DAY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING THE
RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY.
AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL MODELS INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
PUSH THEM INLAND ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS UNDER WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH A DEVELOPED GULF BREEZE. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
NORTHEAST OF THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 87 75 87 75 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 89 71 89 71 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...59/RM
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KKEY 181111
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
711 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE
100 DEGREES AOA 6 TO 8 KNOTS...WITH JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA FL020. A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CIGS AND/OR VIS AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL EXISTS BETWEEN 14Z AND 16Z...AND
WITHIN A DEVELOPING CLOUD LINE BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z NEAR THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
&&
$$
AVIATION...FUTTERMAN
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTAE 181031
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
631 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013
...Updated Rain Forecast...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Convection to our north has taken an early dive to the south this
morning. Thus, very few hi-res, or other models have a decent
handle on the situation. The current thinking is that a rather
widespread area of showers and thunderstorms will dive south into
our Alabama and Georgia counties by mid morning. Expect the
possibility for frequent lightning and heavy rain. Although winds
may gust to 30 mph or so at times, severe gusts are not
anticipated at this time. Although the finer details are not well
resolved by any of the guidance this morning, all NWP guidance
suggests a weakening trend with respect to the convection as the
storms move south. Thus, have kept the best rain chances across
our Alabama and Georgia counties, with lower rain chances across
north Florida. Do however expect some rainfall at least to make it
in to north Florida this afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...
Very summerlike conditions are expected across the region for both
Sunday and Monday, as the shortwave Trof Axis, which will begin the
weekend to our north, gradually slides eastward to a position off
the eastern seaboard by Monday afternoon. This will allow for Upper
Level ridging to build in from the west, with High Temps expected to
reach the lower 90s each day over the interior, with lower to
perhaps mid 80s near the coast. This shortwave Trof may provide just
enough lift and instability to combine with the daytime heating to
produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best
chances for rain will be across eastern portions of the CWA (nearest
the Trof), but even here, 30% should be the greatest value.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).
&&
.AVIATION [Beginning 10Z Saturday]...
See the Near Term discussion above for a synopsis of the evolution
of this mornings complex of storms. Generally VFR conditions will
prevail today once the morning ceilings scatter out. However,
expect MVFR ceilings and visibilities within areas of rain,
impacting primarily KABY and KDHN through midday. Overnight
tonight, expect more widespread low ceiling and fog development.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our coastal
waters for the next several days, with just some minor enhancements
near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days, with relatively light transport winds and deep
mixing heights. Thus, Red Flag conditions are not expected in the
foreseeable future.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 87 62 91 64 91 / 30 10 20 10 20
Panama City 81 67 84 68 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 84 65 90 66 92 / 70 20 20 10 10
Albany 84 64 90 66 91 / 70 20 20 30 20
Valdosta 90 63 92 64 92 / 50 20 30 20 30
Cross City 88 63 88 65 89 / 10 10 20 10 30
Apalachicola 82 66 82 66 84 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Gould
000
FXUS62 KTAE 180822
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
422 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A broad shortwave trough sprawls the eastern part of the country
this morning, with high pressure dominating at the surface. Through
the day, the trough will continue its gradual eastward motion in
response to an amplifying ridge upstream. As it does so, it may send
just enough energy our way to generate a cluster of thunderstorms
around mid to late afternoon across portions of Alabama and Georgia.
Generally, expect the target region for thunderstorms to be between
Dothan and Tifton, moving southeast and mostly diminishing by the
time it reaches Valdosta. Elsewhere across Alabama and Georgia,
scattered light showers and isolated storms may be possible. Little
to no rain is expected across north Florida. Thus, we will see
warmer temperatures in Florida, and slightly cooler temperatures to
the north and northwest. Expect highs around the 90 degree mark for
much of inland Florida, with even some lower 90s possible from
Valdosta, southeast into the Big Bend. Middle to upper 80s will be
more common where thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon.
Overnight, showers and thunderstorms will retreat back to the north,
closer to the parent synoptic forcing. Temperatures will fall back
into the lower to middle 60s, with fog developing near dawn.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday]...
Very summerlike conditions are expected across the region for both
Sunday and Monday, as the shortwave Trof Axis, which will begin the
weekend to our north, gradually slides eastward to a position off
the eastern seaboard by Monday afternoon. This will allow for Upper
Level ridging to build in from the west, with High Temps expected to
reach the lower 90s each day over the interior, with lower to
perhaps mid 80s near the coast. This shortwave Trof may provide just
enough lift and instability to combine with the daytime heating to
produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best
chances for rain will be across eastern portions of the CWA (nearest
the Trof), but even here, 30% should be the greatest value.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday Night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).
&&
.Aviation...
IFR restrictions in a mix of low ceilings and fog are anticipated at
all terminals but KABY this morning. Similar to yesterday
restrictions will lift shortly after sunrise. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected to impact primarily KABY, and possibly
KDHN later this afternoon. Fog, possibly more widespread than this
morning, is expected once again tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our coastal
waters for the next several days, with just some minor enhancements
near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the
next several days, with relatively light transport winds and deep
mixing heights. Thus, Red Flag conditions are not expected in the
foreseeable future.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 89 62 91 64 91 / 10 10 20 10 20
Panama City 83 67 84 68 85 / 10 10 10 10 10
Dothan 87 65 90 66 92 / 40 20 20 10 10
Albany 85 64 90 66 91 / 50 20 20 30 20
Valdosta 93 63 92 64 92 / 20 20 30 20 30
Cross City 90 63 88 65 89 / 10 10 20 10 30
Apalachicola 83 66 82 66 84 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Gould
000
FXUS62 KTBW 180755
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
355 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT THERE WAS A TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTAL WATERS
TO NORTHERN NV/UT...RIDGING OVER THE U.S. PLAINS REACHED NORTH
TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY-GULF COASTAL STATES...AND TROUGHING OVER LABRADOR
EXTENDED SOUTH TO OFFSHORE NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS THE CONUS FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TO OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...A DRY
LINE WAS IN FAR WESTERN OK/TX...HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM
JAMES BAY DOWN ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND...
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC RIDGED WEST/ ALONG
LATITUDE 30 NORTH/ ACROSS FL/GA TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST
REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - MONDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS PUSHES EAST TO THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE...WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THEN BUILDING SOUTHWARD TO THE SE U.S. COASTAL AREA. THE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF
LATITUDE 30 NORTH AS IT GETS REINFORCED BY HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH TODAY THEN SETTLING IN
TOWARD THE AREA BY MON WILL PROVIDE SOME ENERGY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...500MB DROPS FROM AROUND -9 TO NEAR -12 DEGREES.
WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MEANDERS AROUND SOME IT/S AXIS STAYS
NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GOING FROM 1.1-1.2
TO 1.5-1.8 INCHES BY MON. THE SE FLOW WILL BE RELAXED ENOUGH FOR SEA
BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON. THESE SEA BREEZES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE AND ENERGY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE TIMING GENERALLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY START EARLIER
MON AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SETTLES TOWARD THE AREA. THE POPS
RANGE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST VALUES INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA...AS A WEAK TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT. GENERALLY E/SE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES
AT 30-40 PERCENT WITH THE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MID 60S-LOWER 70S EACH MORNING AND IN THE MID 80S COASTAL TO LOWER
90S INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/AREA
OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY AND PULL IN A LITTLE DRIER AIR. HAVE
LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL TURN PREVAILING E/SE WINDS TO THE W/NW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN VFR
WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES INLAND THAT HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
THE RIDGE AXIS OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE NORTH OF THE
WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THE
GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXED ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO
SHIFT WINDS TO ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED INLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACH
BUT NOT REACH 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE 40 PERCENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 71 89 72 / 10 10 30 10
FMY 91 72 90 71 / 10 10 30 10
GIF 91 70 90 70 / 30 20 30 20
SRQ 87 70 87 70 / 10 10 30 10
BKV 91 66 88 66 / 10 10 30 10
SPG 87 73 87 74 / 10 10 30 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KMLB 180732
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
332 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE AXIS OF A WEAKENING BERMUDA RIDGE WL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA.
RIDGE WL REMAIN PROMINENT ENOUGH HOWEVER TO PROVIDE MODEST SE
FLOW OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH BRINGING MOISTURE N INTO THE AREA.
THE GENERALLY LIGHT WIND REGIME WL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF BREEZE
BOUNDARIES ALONG BOTH COASTS WITH A TARGETED COLLISION ROUGHLY
WEST OF ORLANDO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIP CHCS WL BE HIGHER
INLAND DUE TO PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH AN ANTICIPATED
LATE AFTN COLLISION NR LAKE COUNTY/WRN ORANGE COUNTIES.
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS WL OCCUR WITH COASTAL SECTIONS LIKELY TO SEE
BEST RAIN CHC DURING MORNING WITH MARINE SHRA AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AND INLAND MOVING EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY. HV INCLUDED NO
MORE THAN 20 PCT AT COAST AND 30 INLAND.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND ISOLD TS MAINLY INLAND WILL WIND DOWN BY
AROUND 10 PM WITH DISSIPATING CLOUDINESS PAST MIDNIGHT AND TEMPS
FALLING TO AROUND 70 BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.
SUN-SAT...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. MID LEVEL CAP THAT WAS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY ALLOWING
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. DEEPENING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BEGINS PULLING MORE MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. GREATEST DEPTH OF MOISTURE FORECAST TO BE MID WEEK WHICH
WOULD CORRELATE TO THE HIGHEST POP AT AROUND 40 PERCENT. MID LEVEL
DRY AIR RETURNS BY FRIDAY BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SEA/LAKE BREEZES INTERACTING SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DROPS OFF TO
AROUND 20 PERCENT SATURDAY AS THE MID LEVEL CAP/S EFFECT TAKES
CHARGE. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR THE
INTERIOR. DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID
80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES. MID AND UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST TO WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
HAD MORE TIME TO RISE BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WITH ISOLD MORNING SHRA ALONG CST. ISOLD/SCT SHRA AND TS
MNLY INLAND PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR FM 18Z-23Z WITH DECREASING
ACTIVITY AFT 01Z.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS AVERAGING 3 TO 4 FT IN SE FLOW INTO SUNDAY. LOCAL WIND WAVE
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST PREVALENT COMPONENT.
SUN-WED...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE AND 2 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE. A 2 TO 3 FOOT LONG
PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW TO
MODERATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 86 70 85 70 / 20 20 30 20
MCO 90 69 89 69 / 20 20 30 20
MLB 86 72 86 73 / 20 20 30 10
VRB 84 71 85 72 / 20 20 30 20
LEE 90 70 89 71 / 30 20 40 20
SFB 90 70 90 70 / 20 20 30 20
ORL 89 71 90 71 / 20 20 30 20
FPR 85 70 85 72 / 20 20 30 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WIMMER
000
FXUS62 KKEY 180713
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
315 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE CLEAR. WINDS OVER
LAND ARE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
DICTATED BY SUBTLE MOISTURE SURGES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT...
IF NOT LONGER. AN INVERTED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST UNTIL FORECAST CERTAINTY
INCREASES.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL AVERAGE
110 DEGREES AT OR ABOUT 8 KNOTS...WITH JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOUT 2000 FEET. A LOW PROBABILITY
EXISTS FOR VERY BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS AT EITHER ISLAND
TERMINAL...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL BETWEEN 14Z
AND 16Z...AND BETWEEN 20Z AND 24Z AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 92 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 18TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 132 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 86 78 86 78 / 20 10 20 30
MARATHON 90 79 89 78 / 20 10 20 30
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMFL 180700
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EACH DAY. THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS PERSISTENT AND IN
GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD OVER THE
MS VALLEY TRAILING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AS THIS SHORTWAVE ADVANCES E-SEWD OVER THE
STATE...UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLIGHTLY FALL OVER THE STATE BY THE END
OF THE DAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR
LOCATIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA REFLECT THIS AND INDICATE SOME MID-
LEVEL COOLING BY 00Z (H5 TEMPS AROUND -11C) WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES STEEPENING (-6 TO -7 C/KM). THIS COMBINED WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS LATER TODAY
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
LOCATIONS. THE FSU GRIDDED LIGHTNING PROBABILITY DATABASE AND THE
LATEST GRIDDED MOS THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY
OUTPUTTING 20-40 PERCENT CHANCES OVER THESE INTERIOR LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL CAP BETWEEN 650 MB
AND 700 MB ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO
ANY DEVELOPING CELLS. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS (40-55 MPH). THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES BETWEEN THE WRF AND NAM GENERALLY LINE UP WELL AND
DEPICT SOME ACTIVITY INITIATING INLAND AND TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
PERIODS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH THE EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FAVORING INTERIOR AFTERNOON ACTIVITY AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
EAST COAST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO THE CONFLUENT
BOUNDARIES SETTING UP DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS AND RADIATIONAL
CLOUD-TOP COOLING.
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
THE GFS/ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF GENERALLY REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND INDICATE A PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH
CONTINUING TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LATER IN THE WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACTIVITY EACH DAY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER MODEL
TRENDS FOR CONSISTENCY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING THE
RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST HRRR AND
LOCAL MODELS INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND
PUSH THEM INLAND ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS UNDER WEAK
EASTERLY FLOW. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH A DEVELOPED GULF BREEZE. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT ANY THUNDER MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
NORTHEAST OF THE MARINE AREA. ISOLATED OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 87 75 87 75 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 89 71 89 71 / 20 20 30 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD
000
FXUS62 KJAX 180628
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LIGHT S/SE FLOW UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE BUT NOT LIKELY
TO BECOME DENSE. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LINGERS AT THE SURFACE WHILE SHORTWAVE
TROF ALOFT OVER THE SERN U.S. PUSHES SLOWLY INTO THE REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS (PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS
UP TO 1.5 INCHES) WILL HELP TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONTS AS THEY MOVE INLAND TODAY. FOR NOW HAVE
KEPT POPS GENERALLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE WITH MAIN AXIS OF PCPN
OCCURRING ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR. MAX TEMPS SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S COAST TO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90
OVER INLAND AREAS. STILL EXPECT NEAR BREEZY CONDS ALONG THE ATLC
COAST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER INLAND AREAS WILL
WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS MID LEVEL TROF/SHORTWAVE SETTLES OVER THE
REGION AND WILL SLOWLY INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S INLAND AND NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE TROF AXIS OVERTOP THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE LEVELS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS INTO THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH
RANGE. THIS WILL GENERATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME
POSSIBLE BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT THEN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STEERING
FLOW WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE SWLY AND THIS WILL ALLOW STORMS TO REACH
ALL THE WAY TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR ALONG THE EAST COAST AS WELL AS
FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR. FOR NOW...HAVE PUSHED POPS UP TO AROUND 40% RANGE...BUT
MAY NEED TO GO HIGHER IF FORECAST MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. MAX TEMPS WILL CONTINUE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE UPPER
80S INLAND AND LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST.
MON/TUE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION THIS
PERIOD...WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER FORCING EXPECTING ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH LARGELY AFTERNOON DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED. AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS 06Z TAF PERIOD.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS. AT THIS POINT WILL INCLUDE VCTS...UNTIL THERE
IS MORE CERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH A GENERAL SELY FLOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCAL SEA BREEZES OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS AT 4 FEET OR LESS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SWELLS
REMAINING AT 2 FEET OR LESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 89 66 88 67 / 30 30 40 30
SSI 82 71 82 71 / 20 20 30 20
JAX 86 67 87 67 / 30 30 40 20
SGJ 83 69 83 70 / 20 20 30 20
GNV 89 65 89 65 / 30 30 40 30
OCF 91 66 90 67 / 30 30 40 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
HESS/STRUBLE
000
FXUS62 KKEY 180214
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1014 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE FLORIDA KEYS UNDERWENT SOME CHANGES DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE DEEP RIDGE WHICH HAD SUSTAINED LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS
FINALLY DISINTEGRATED. IN ITS PLACE IS A RATHER DEEP BELT OF
COOLER...MORE CYCLONIC VORTICITY-RICH WESTERLIES ABOVE A WEAK TO
MODERATE LAYER OF EASTERLIES. THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER RESPONDED TO
THE REDUCTION IN LARGE-SCALE DESCENT BY MOISTENING. THE COMBINATION
OF INCREASED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND COOLING ALOFT BOTH
DESTABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE VERTICAL AND REDUCED CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION ENERGY DOWN BELOW. THEREFORE...SHOWERS DEVELOPED WHERE
MESOSCALE LIFTING WAS PRESENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ADJACENT TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULAR SEA-BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ZONES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CELLS/OUTFLOW. AT THE
MOMENT...ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE DETECTED BY KEY WEST
DOPPLER RADAR OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY.
WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CIRCULATIONS
WILL BE ON THE WANE. HOWEVER...CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINGENT UPON SURFACE FORCING
FOR ASCENT....WHICH WILL BE LACKING. THEREFORE...IN THE EVENING
FORECAST UPDATES WE HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TO 10 PERCENT...BUT
KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER.
HAVE A PLEASANT EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST
OVER THE LOWER STRAITS BEYOND 20 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH OF THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS AND MARQUESAS KEYS OVERNIGHT...WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FEET IN
THE GULF STREAM. HOWEVER...LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ARE EXPECTED MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS...WITH LIGHTEST WINDS NEAR THE KEYS AND OVER FLORIDA
BAY. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 00Z/19TH...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT ESE WINDS SHOULD NOT VARY BY MUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO... BUT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT SATURDAY SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY AT THE TERMINALS.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE-DEVANAS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTAE 180212
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1012 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013
...UPDATED
Latest radar pix show convection from shortwave (see below) edging
sewd across s/cntrl AL and some may reach our nrn most counties
after midnight. ATL and BHM have higher Pops across our adjacent
areas and will put in 20-30% Pops to account for this convection.
.Near Term [Through Rest of Tonight]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by a trough over the
Wrn states, building ridge over Cntrl states, a trough over the TN
River Valley and SWD, and a ridge of high pressure across the Wrn
Atlc. Locally, area remains on Wrn edge of this ridge. Upper low
over Nrn AL slowly weakening as it moves Ewd. Assocd H5 shortwave
rotating across N/Cntrl AL and moving WNW-ESE spreading ample
convection over Nrn AL/GA but only mid and high level cloud debris
across local area. At surface, subtropical ridge extends from Ern
Atlc to across NRN FL yielding generally SE flow.
During the rest of tonight, upper trough, low and shortwave continue
their slow Ewd trek allowing upstream ridge to move into MS Valley.
Assocd clouds at base of trough will also spread EWD impacting
mainly our Nrn most counties but increasingly diminishing with loss
of heat and as they move away from local area. The combination of
the departing clouds, the light onshore humid flow (Rap 12z Sat TAE
sounding of 1.26 inches) and mild temperatures will provide another
favorable setup for fog. While the most favored area appears to be
along the FL Panhandle and into SE AL, some potential for fog is
possible across Southwestern Georgia as well altho not enough to
include in wx grids. Based on current trends in temps, tweaked up
min temps a few degrees land and water. Also based on model guidance
and persistence, changed wx GRIDS 10z-13z from areas and patchy
light fog to areas/patchy dense fog. Temps overnight will be
in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Monday]...
The 500 mb trough axis (currently over western TN) will be over our
forecast area Saturday afternoon, then east of our area by Sunday
morning. Any vertical motion/deep layer moisture associated with
this feature appears rather limited, and the dynamical and
statistical NWP guidance aren`t very "bullish" on PoP or QPF. The
00 UTC Convection Allowing Model (CAM) runs also showed very
little in the way of deep moist convection for Saturday, so our
PoP over the weekend will be low (10-30%...with the highest PoP
during the afternoon hours in our northern zones). Temperatures
will be a few degrees above average- generally around 90 deg,
except for the beaches where the highs will be in the lower 80s
because of the cooler water.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).
&&
.Aviation...
VFR conditions this evening will gradually give way to prevailing
MVFR visibilities at DHN, ABY and VLD after midnight as fog
develops. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected at the ECP and TLH TAF
sites. IFR/LIFR conditions can`t be ruled out at DHN, ABY, and
VLD, but the chance of fog is much lower at these terminals. Shortly
after daybreak, any remaining fog should dissipate and all terminals
will return to VFR conditions with southerly winds around 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain low for the next several days, but for
brief increases (to 10 to 15 KT) in winds and chop near the coast
during the afternoon, due to the sea breeze circulation
enhancement.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, Red Flag conditions are not
anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will likely remain well below flood stage
for the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 64 88 64 88 66 / 0 10 10 10 10
Panama City 68 83 69 83 70 / 0 10 10 10 10
Dothan 66 88 67 89 69 / 20 20 20 10 10
Albany 66 89 67 90 68 / 20 20 20 20 20
Valdosta 65 88 63 88 65 / 0 10 20 20 20
Cross City 64 88 62 88 65 / 0 10 10 20 10
Apalachicola 66 81 67 81 69 / 0 10 0 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE.../
FIRE WEATHER.../
HYDROLOGY...
000
FXUS62 KTBW 180119
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
919 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE AS SEEN IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A COUPLE SHOWERS MANAGED TO DEVELOP WHERE THE EAST/WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES COLLIDED OVER THE PAST HOUR...BUT RADAR INDICATES
THAT THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IS VERY ISOLATED AND
DISSIPATING QUICKLY. WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT HOUR...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FEW TO SCT CU
045-055 THIS EVENING WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EASTERLY SURGE WILL CREATE WIND GUSTS TO 20 MPH BRIEFLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT MAINLY FROM TPA-PIE-SRQ TO LAL...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 89 71 88 / 0 10 10 30
FMY 70 91 71 90 / 0 20 10 30
GIF 69 91 70 90 / 0 30 20 40
SRQ 68 87 70 87 / 0 10 10 30
BKV 63 90 66 89 / 0 20 10 30
SPG 73 88 73 87 / 0 10 10 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
LONG TERM/AVIATION...OGLESBY
000
FXUS62 KMLB 180050
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WERE FEW AND FAR IN BETWEEN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. WHILE A FEW DEVELOPED ALONG THE INTERACTION WITH THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BREEZE IN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE LAKE APOPKA BREEZE
IN FAR WESTERN ORANGE...ALL ACTIVITY OVER LAND HAS NOW DISSIPATED.
THE PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE BAND OFF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND THAT HAS
BEEN LIFTING NORTHWARDS ALL IS STILL PRESENT AND PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET OVERNIGHT AND IN THE ADJACENT WATERS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS.
FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATURDAY...SOME MOISTURE ORIGINATING ACROSS NW BAHAMAS WILL WORK NW
OVER E CENTRAL FL ON SAT WITH LOW LVL SE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NW
FLOW IN THE MID LVLS WITH H5 TEMPS COOLING TO -10 TO -11 DEGS WILL
PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SOME STORMS MAKING IT BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...THROUGH 18/13Z...A FEW -SHRA MOVING INTO THE COAST SOUTH
OF KVRB...MAINLY VCNTY KVRB. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
EVENING BECOMING NEARLY CALM AFTER 18/03Z...EXCEPT ALONG IMMEDIATE
COAST. 13Z-17Z...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 8-10KT OVER THE
INTERIOR AND 10-15KTS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. ISOLD SHRA...POSSIBLE TSRA ALONG INWARD
MOVING SEA BREEZE MAINLY SOUTH OF KMLB. AFTER 17Z...ISOLD-SCT SHRA
AND TSRA INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER ORLANDO METRO AIRPORTS-KLEE AFTER 20Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...NOCTURNAL WIND INCREASE HAS BROUGHT
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO AROUND 15KTS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
EVENING WITH THE FLOW EXPECTED TO VEER MORE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT. WINDS CONTINUE AT 10-15KTS ON SATURDAY...BECOMING A LITTLE
MORE EASTERLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
SEAS 3-4 FT WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 8 SEC THIS EVENING
INCREASING TO 10 SEC ON SAT.
INLAND BOATERS AND THOSE ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL WILL WANT TO BE ON
GUARD FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS AFTER
THE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WE HAVE HAD LATELY. NATIONAL SAFE BOATING
WEEK BEGINS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
MOSES/LASCODY
000
FXUS62 KTAE 180019
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
819 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013
.Near Term [Through Rest of Tonight]...
The large scale longwave pattern is highlighted by a trough over the
Wrn states, building ridge over Cntrl states, a trough over the TN
River Valley and SWD, and a ridge of high pressure across the Wrn
Atlc. Locally, area remains on Wrn edge of this ridge. Upper low
over Nrn AL slowly weakening as it moves Ewd. Assocd H5 shortwave
rotating across N/Cntrl AL and moving WNW-ESE spreading ample
convection over Nrn AL/GA but only mid and high level cloud debris
across local area. At surface, subtropical ridge extends from Ern
Atlc to across NRN FL yielding generally SE flow.
During the rest of tonight, upper trough, low and shortwave continue
their slow Ewd trek allowing upstream ridge to move into MS Valley.
Assocd clouds at base of trough will also spread EWD impacting
mainly our Nrn most counties but increasingly diminishing with loss
of heat and as they move away from local area. The combination of
the departing clouds, the light onshore humid flow (Rap 12z Sat TAE
sounding of 1.26 inches) and mild temperatures will provide another
favorable setup for fog. While the most favored area appears to be
along the FL Panhandle and into SE AL, some potential for fog is
possible across Southwestern Georgia as well altho not enough to
include in wx grids. Based on current trends in temps, tweaked up
min temps a few degrees land and water. Also based on model guidance
and persistence, changed wx GRIDS 10z-13z from areas and patchy
light fog to areas/patchy dense fog. Temps overnight will be
in the low to mid 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Monday]...
The 500 mb trough axis (currently over western TN) will be over our
forecast area Saturday afternoon, then east of our area by Sunday
morning. Any vertical motion/deep layer moisture associated with
this feature appears rather limited, and the dynamical and
statistical NWP guidance aren`t very "bullish" on PoP or QPF. The
00 UTC Convection Allowing Model (CAM) runs also showed very
little in the way of deep moist convection for Saturday, so our
PoP over the weekend will be low (10-30%...with the highest PoP
during the afternoon hours in our northern zones). Temperatures
will be a few degrees above average- generally around 90 deg,
except for the beaches where the highs will be in the lower 80s
because of the cooler water.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).
&&
.Aviation...
VFR conditions this evening will gradually give way to prevailing
MVFR visibilities at DHN, ABY and VLD after midnight as fog
develops. IFR/LIFR conditions are expected at the ECP and TLH TAF
sites. IFR/LIFR conditions can`t be ruled out at DHN, ABY, and
VLD, but the chance of fog is much lower at these terminals. Shortly
after daybreak, any remaining fog should dissipate and all terminals
will return to VFR conditions with southerly winds around 10 knots.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain low for the next several days, but for
brief increases (to 10 to 15 KT) in winds and chop near the coast
during the afternoon, due to the sea breeze circulation
enhancement.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, Red Flag conditions are not
anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will likely remain well below flood stage
for the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 64 88 64 88 66 / 0 10 10 10 10
Panama City 68 83 69 83 70 / 0 10 10 10 10
Dothan 66 88 67 89 69 / 10 20 20 10 10
Albany 66 89 67 90 68 / 10 20 20 20 20
Valdosta 65 88 63 88 65 / 0 10 20 20 20
Cross City 64 88 62 88 65 / 0 10 10 20 10
Apalachicola 66 81 67 81 69 / 0 10 0 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Block
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Block/Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier
000
FXUS62 KMFL 172354
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...LITTLE CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON SO
HAVE REMOVED TSTORM MENTION ALL OF SOUTH FL THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS
EVENING. OVERNIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WITH MOVEMENT ONSHORE THE EAST COAST...PERHAPS WITH AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TOWARDS DAWN
SATURDAY AS PER THE HRRR. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A BOUNDARY EVIDENT
IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM NEAR THE COAST
AT SOUTHEASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEAST
BETWEEN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ANDROS. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY,
SO WE WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK UPDATE
THIS EVENING.
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LASTING THROUGH MAY 24TH IS NATIONAL SAFE
BOATING WEEK. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS PARTNERED WITH THE
NATIONAL SAFE BOATING COUNCIL TO HELP PROMOTE SAFE BOATING
PRACTICES. SATURDAY`S SAFETY THEME IS "LIFE JACKETS". "WEAR IT" TO
PLAY IT SAFE. 85% OF DROWNINGS FROM BOATING OCCURRED WHEN NO LIFE
JACKETS WERE WORN. /GREGORIA
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A CHANCE OF
CEILING MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EAST COST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT (5 KNOTS OR
LESS) INCREASING TO THE 5 TO 10 KNOTS RANGE TOMORROW BY LATE MORNING
WITH A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AT APF BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST AND PUSH OUT
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION...SO REMOVED THE POPS
FOR THE NAPLES AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED HAVE
HAD HIGH BASES...WHICH INDICATES THERE IS STILL DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
SHOULD PREVENT MANY...IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR PALM BEACH
COUNTY WHERE THEY WERE OCCURRING. THE HRRR STILL SHOWED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AFTER 20-21Z. SO
LEFT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
WORDING. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FLORIDA IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO COOL TO
-10 TO -11C WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS STILL DRY AIR IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
TEMPS WILL WARM ALOFT A BIT ON SUNDAY...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. SO THE EAST COAST SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A FEW MORNING SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS IT GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO THEN RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IF THIS TROUGH MOVES
AS THE GFS INDICATES...DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND PUSHES THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER
DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE WESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY...DELAYING THE
DEEP MOISTURE UNTIL THAT TIME. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF KPBI FOCUSED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THAT
AREA, BUT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST SITES. KAPF SHOULD SEE NO
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS WITH GULF SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. QUIET
NIGHT EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AT WORST ALONG THE E COAST AND
PATCHY INLAND FOG. SE FLOW ON SATURDAY CONTINUING TO BRING IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY E COAST WITH VFR PREVAILING.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATER SEAS AROUND 2
FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 85 75 85 / 20 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 86 77 86 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 75 87 76 86 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 71 88 71 89 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KJAX 172351
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
751 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING AS SURFACE HEATING SUBSIDES. A WEAK IMPULSE
IN ZONAL FLOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH...PROVIDING FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TNGT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND...TO THE
UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTN WILL
BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS...USING
SCATTERED/BROKEN CUMULUS.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SCEC CRITERIA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 64 89 66 88 / 10 40 40 30
SSI 69 82 70 82 / 10 20 20 10
JAX 67 86 69 85 / 0 30 30 30
SGJ 68 84 70 83 / 0 20 20 20
GNV 65 90 65 89 / 0 40 40 30
OCF 66 91 66 89 / 0 30 30 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ALLEN/WOLF/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KKEY 171943
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
343 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE KICKED OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA AND OVER CUBA...AND ANDROS ISLAND. A
WEAK...NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAS BEEN HOVERING OVER THE STRAITS
CLOUD STREETS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY PERSISTENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN AND THE ISLAND TERMINALS.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
IN THE SHORT TERM EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. THE RIDGE
WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER WITH ONLY WEAK SYNOPTIC INFLUENCE. THE
VERTICAL PROFILE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE MARGINAL FOR ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING OVERNIGHT. WILL LOWER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE 20 PERCENT RANGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
DUE TO THE BACKING WINDS ALOFT...BUT ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLLISIONS WILL STILL BE A FACTOR.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL PWATS... AND THE BACKING IN THE VERTICAL WILL
HELP SUBDUE RAIN CHANCES. WEDNESDAY A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEY RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENING
AND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. WINDS WILL
TURN MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASE APPRECIABLY. THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE RESPONDS TO THIS WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO INCREASING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS...ALL UNDER A DIFFLUENT JET ALOFT
AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS THURSDAY LATE BUT THE
DIFFLUENCE REMAINS ALOFT ALLOWING FOR AMPLE LIFTING. HAVE PLACED
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE KEYS AREA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND IS REFLECTED IN LIGHT
WINDS. WITH THE WEAK WIND REGIME EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE
MOISTENING ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT NOCTURNAL SURGES WILL ARISE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THEN THE RIDGE REBUILDS OFF THE EAST COAST WITH WINDS
INCREASING TUESDAY NIGHT. NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE
EXPECT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 12Z/18TH...OTHER THAN A VICINITY SHOWER NEAR THE KEY WEST
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS. CLOUD BASES WILL BE AT SEVERAL LAYERS INCLUDING 025...050
AND NEAR 100. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF NEAR 10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF AROUND 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1878...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 92 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 17TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 135 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 77 86 77 86 / 30 30 20 20
MARATHON 78 89 78 89 / 30 30 20 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 171903
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID
LEVELS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL MEANDER NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH GENERALLY SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA...THOUGH FLOW HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT VARIABLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO
START A BIT EARLIER THAN NORMAL AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
UNDER SOUTHEAST FLOW...MOISTURE IS ALREADY INCREASING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER A LITTLE OVER AN INCH TODAY...INCREASING TO
1.25-1.5 INCHES ON SATURDAY AND UP TO 1.5-1.75 INCHES ON SUNDAY. AS
A RESULT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES WITH THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZE STORMS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA. GENERALLY E/SE WINDS WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HAVE KEPT
RAIN CHANCES AT 30-40 PERCENT WITH THE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S EACH MORNING AND IN THE MID 80S COASTAL
TO LOWER 90S INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
THE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
WILL GENERATE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES
TURNING WINDS ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COASTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL NOT BE LOW ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A RED FLAG
WARNING. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 71 89 71 88 / 10 10 10 30
FMY 71 91 72 90 / 20 20 10 30
GIF 70 91 70 90 / 10 30 20 40
SRQ 68 87 70 87 / 10 10 10 30
BKV 63 89 66 88 / 10 20 10 30
SPG 73 87 73 87 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...COLSON
AVIATION...CLOSE
000
FXUS62 KMLB 171853
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
252 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...DRYNESS OF THE LOW LVL AIRMASS STILL APPARENT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH A 56 DEG DEWPOINT AT LEESBURG AT 2 PM. SHORT RANGE
MODELS STILL INDICATE AN EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS WRN
LAKE COUNTY BUT ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED IF THEY DEVELOP AT
ALL WITH STILL SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS. SE WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP DURING THE EVENING AND THEN WANE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
OVERNIGHT. PERSISTENT SHOWER BAND OFF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAY CLIP
THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTY COAST WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT SO HAVE ADDED A LOW POP FROM FT PIERCE TO JUPITER INLET
ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ALONG
SOUTHERN CSTL SECTIONS.
SATURDAY...SOME MOISTURE ORIGINATING ACROSS NW BAHAMAS WILL WORK NW
OVER E CENTRAL FL ON SAT WITH LOW LVL SE FLOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL CREEP UP TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NW
FLOW IN THE MID LVLS WITH H5 TEMPS COOLING TO -10 TO -11 DEGS WILL
PRODUCE A MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SOME STORMS MAKING IT BACK TOWARD THE COAST.
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA LEADING TO RELATIVELY WEAK S/SE LOW LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH PW VALUES REACHING
1.5-1.8 INCHES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES AS THEY PUSH INLAND INTO THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR WITH ANY BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS LATER IN THE DAY WITH STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 INLAND.
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING. THEN
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL EXIST ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
MON-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO
REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATING OVERALL MOISTURE LEVEL OF THE WHOLE ATMOSPHERE INCREASING
WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE STILL BEING BELOW 850MB/5000 FEET.
CHANCE/30 POP OF AFTERNOON STORMS/SHOWER INTERIOR COUNTIES. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A MORNING COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWER WITH EARLY AFTERNOON
STORMS COASTAL COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES 20-30 PERCENT EACH DAY. HIGHS
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S INTERIOR AND MID TO HIGH 80S COASTAL AREAS.
LOWS MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH NEAR OR JUST PAST KLEE THIS
EVENING. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG SEA BREEZE
COLLISION WITH DRY MID LVLS SO HAVE KEPT LEESBURG FORECAST DRY.
MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A VCSH FROM KFPR-KSUA LATER TONIGHT WITH A FEW
SHRA FROM THE ATLC POSSIBLY MOVING ONSHORE. DECREASING SE WINDS
EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AS INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER FROM EAST
COAST BREEZE WANES. INCREASED MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLD
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SAT MAINLY AFT 18Z.
&&
.MARINE...SHORT RANGE MODELS FORECAST SE FLOW TO PICK UP AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH SE WINDS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO 3-4 FT.
SE WINDS TO 10-15 KNOTS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP SEAS MAINLY IN THE 3-4
FT RANGE HIGHEST OFFSHORE. INLAND BOATERS AND THOSE ALONG THE
INTRACOASTAL WILL WANT TO BE ON GUARD FOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS AFTER THE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WE
HAVE HAD LATELY. NATIONAL SAFE BOATING WEEK BEGINS THIS WEEKEND.
SUN-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND SPEEDS BELOW 15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY INCREASING UP TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
INCREASING SE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ELEVATE
MOISTURE LEVELS AND RETURN THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS FOR E
CENTRAL FL INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. MIN RHS WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 68 86 69 85 / 10 20 10 20
MCO 68 90 69 89 / 10 30 20 30
MLB 72 85 72 86 / 10 20 10 20
VRB 70 85 70 85 / 10 20 10 20
LEE 68 90 70 88 / 10 30 20 30
SFB 69 90 70 89 / 10 30 20 30
ORL 70 90 71 89 / 10 30 20 30
FPR 70 84 69 86 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
000
FXUS62 KMFL 171829
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
229 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST AND PUSH OUT
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SOME
SUBSIDENCE TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION...SO REMOVED THE POPS
FOR THE NAPLES AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS THAT HAVE FORMED HAVE
HAD HIGH BASES...WHICH INDICATES THERE IS STILL DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IS MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS
SHOULD PREVENT MANY...IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS
HAS BACKED OFF ON ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR PALM BEACH
COUNTY WHERE THEY WERE OCCURRING. THE HRRR STILL SHOWED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AFTER 20-21Z. SO
LEFT THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
WORDING. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS FLORIDA IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO COOL TO
-10 TO -11C WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. LAPSE RATES ALOFT
ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS STILL DRY AIR IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS. HOWEVER...A COUPLE STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
TEMPS WILL WARM ALOFT A BIT ON SUNDAY...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. SO THE EAST COAST SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A FEW MORNING SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO
THE EAST. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY AS IT GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO THEN RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO THE
WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. IF THIS TROUGH MOVES
AS THE GFS INDICATES...DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY...WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND PUSHES THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER
DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE WESTERN GULF ON WEDNESDAY...DELAYING THE
DEEP MOISTURE UNTIL THAT TIME. EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THAT DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF KPBI FOCUSED SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN THAT
AREA, BUT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE INTERIOR WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST SITES. KAPF SHOULD SEE NO
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS WITH GULF SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. QUIET
NIGHT EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AT WORST ALONG THE E COAST AND
PATCHY INLAND FOG. SE FLOW ON SATURDAY CONTINUING TO BRING IN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY E COAST WITH VFR PREVAILING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATER SEAS AROUND 2
FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION EARLY TO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 85 75 85 / 20 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 86 77 86 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 75 87 76 86 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 71 88 71 89 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...59/RM
000
FXUS62 KJAX 171828
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
228 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...WARM WITH SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING TSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN/EVENING...THE SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO
MARCH INLAND THROUGH THE LATE AFTN WITH A MERGER LIKELY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BETWEEN HIGHWAY 301 AND INTERSTATE 75. SKIES WILL CLOUD
OVER WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT STILL A LOT OF SUBSIDENCE
IN THE MID LEVELS TO PREVENT SHOWERS LET ALONE DEEP CONVECTION.
HIGHS WERE ON TRACK WITH HIGH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND WITH
LOW 80S NEAR THE COAST. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY FADE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING AS TEMPS COOL INTO THE UPPER 70S AROUND
8 PM.
TONIGHT...MID AND HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL PASS OVERHEAD FROM
THE NW AS THE TAIL END OF A A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION
THIS AFTN OVER MS/AL SHIFTS SE TOWARD THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. MINS
WILL BE MILD WITH VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.
SAT THRU MON...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS POSITIONS OVER TO JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BRING A PREVAILING SSW FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND A SLIGHTLY STRONGER WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH A
MERGER LIKELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 AND WEST OF THE ST JOHNS
RIVER. A MID LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...WHILE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS (MID LEVEL IMPULSES) RIDGE DOWN
THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND OVER SE GA AND NE FL. THESE
PASSING IMPULSES OVERRIDING SHALLOW LIFT FROM CONVERGING SEA
BREEZES AND OUTFLOWS WILL SPARK SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD AND HAVE INDICATED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 30-40% RANGE. TEMPS WILL RUN ABOVE CLIMO VALUES
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 INLAND WITH MINS IN THE
60S INLAND TO 70 COAST.
.LONG TERM...TUE THRU FRI...THE BERMUDA RIDGE POSITIONS NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH A PREVAILING LOW LEVEL ESE FLOW IN PLACE TUE/WED WHICH WILL
FOCUS AFTN/EVENING SEA BREEZE CONVECTION TOWARD THE I-75 CORRIDOR IN
THE AFTN. GIVEN UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL TREND RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO IN THE 20-30% RANGE. THU/FRI MEAN TROUGHING DEEPENS OVER
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH INCREASED FORCING AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND
WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 30-40% RANGE AGAIN FOLLOWING A
PREVAILING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CONVECTIVE REGIME. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE CLIMO VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 INLAND TO
MID 80S COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 60S INLAND TO NEAR 70 COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVIAL.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SE WINDS NEAR 15 KT
AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5 FT AT TIMES.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 64 89 66 88 / 10 40 40 30
SSI 70 82 70 82 / 0 20 20 10
JAX 67 86 69 85 / 0 30 30 30
SGJ 69 84 70 83 / 0 20 20 20
GNV 67 90 65 89 / 10 40 40 30
OCF 68 91 66 89 / 10 30 30 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
ENYEDI/TRABERT
000
FXUS62 KTAE 171816
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
216 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A disturbance will pass through the Tennessee Valley this evening
taking the bulk of the mid level cloudiness with it. Our region
remains on the western edge of a ridge of high pressure across the
Western Atlantic. This pattern will place our region in a favorable
set up for another round of fog overnight. While the most favored
area appears to be along the Florida Panhandle and into Southeastern
Alabama, some potential for fog is possible across Southwestern
Georgia as well. Temperatures overnight will be a little on the cool
side for mid May with lows generally in the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Saturday through Monday]...
The 500 mb trough axis (currently over western TN) will be over our
forecast area Saturday afternoon, then east of our area by Sunday
morning. Any vertical motion/deep layer moisture associated with
this feature appears rather limited, and the dynamical and
statistical NWP guidance aren`t very "bullish" on PoP or QPF. The
00 UTC Convection Allowing Model (CAM) runs also showed very
little in the way of deep moist convection for Saturday, so our
PoP over the weekend will be low (10-30%...with the highest PoP
during the afternoon hours in our northern zones). Temperatures
will be a few degrees above average- generally around 90 deg,
except for the beaches where the highs will be in the lower 80s
because of the cooler water.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday night through Friday]...
The 500mb ridge over the Southeast U.S. early in the work week will
transition to a weak trough by late week. The height falls over our
forecast area will be modest so only a slight increase in PoP is
expected later in the week. Until then, the GFS forecasts more deep
layer moisture (hence QPF) than the ECMWF for our region.
Climatologically it`s still a bit early for widespread mesoscale-
induced convection, so an average of the two solutions will get us
close to our climatological PoP (around 20%), with a diurnal
cycle. High temperatures will be at or a few degrees above
average, with lows near average (in the 60s).
&&
.Aviation [Through 18 UTC Saturday]...
VFR conditions will persist through the early evening, with
scattered clouds across the region. However, later this evening,
areas of fog will develop as surface winds become calm, especially
over the Florida Panhandle after 06Z. Where the fog develops, LIFR
conditions are expected. The best chance of fog is at ECP, but TLH
has a decent chance of fog as well. LIFR conditions can`t be ruled
out at DHN, ABY, and VLD, but the chance of fog is much lower at
these terminals. Where fog does not occur, VFR conditions will
persist through the night. After 13Z tomorrow, any remaining fog
should dissipate and all stations will return to VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will remain low for the next several days, but for
brief increases (to 10 to 15 KT) in winds and chop near the coast
during the afternoon, due to the sea breeze circulation
enhancement.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, Red Flag conditions are not
anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will likely remain well below flood stage
for the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 61 88 64 88 66 / 0 10 10 10 10
Panama City 66 83 69 83 70 / 0 10 10 10 10
Dothan 65 88 67 89 69 / 10 20 20 10 10
Albany 65 89 67 90 68 / 10 20 20 20 20
Valdosta 63 88 63 88 65 / 0 10 20 20 20
Cross City 63 88 62 88 65 / 0 10 10 20 10
Apalachicola 64 81 67 81 69 / 0 10 0 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey/Lahr
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Godsey
HYDROLOGY...Fournier
000
FXUS62 KKEY 171359
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
959 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THIS MORNINGS SATELLITE INTERROGATION SHOWS A CLUSTER OF CONGESTUS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS...HAS BEEN VERIFIED BY WINDOW
VISION. THE KBYX RADAR INDICATES THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS
AREA IS MOVING NORTH AROUND 10 KNOTS BUT RUNNING INTO SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT. THE DRY AIR IS SHOWN ON THE MORNING SOUNDING DATA. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE C-MAN STATIONS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN
WITH DEAD CALM AT MOLASSES REEF AND LONG KEY LIGHTS...VERY LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS AT SMITH SHOAL AND KEY WEST COAST GUARD...AND EAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS AT SAND KEY. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NORTHEAST NEAR 5
KNOTS.
.FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS WEAKENED...THE VEERING PROFILE IS NOT
QUITE ORGANIZED AS WELL AS WE LIKE TO SEE THAT WOULD ENHANCE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFTING OVER THE AREA. THIS MAY BE A BIT EARLY TO DISCOUNT
THE POTENTIAL THOUGH...THE VEERING PROFILE MAY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED
DURING THE DAY AFTER THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH BREAKS UP THE
RIDGING A BIT MORE. THEN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH WINDS
BACKING MORE TO THE EAST TO NORTHEAST PRODUCING CLOUD LINES...WILL
PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CHANCE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL
PROFILE WILL GET BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH PWAT VALUES ARE NEAR 100 TO
120 PERCENT OF NORMAL. NO CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE KEYS AREA AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND IS REFLECTED IN LIGHT
WINDS. WITH THE WEAK WIND REGIME EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE
MOISTENING ACROSS THE AREA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS ARE EXPECT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 00Z/18TH...OUTSIDE OF A FEW POSSIBLE MVFR CEILING ENCOUNTERS
(NEAR 025) THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS. CLOUD BASES WILL
BE AT SEVERAL LAYERS INCLUDING 025...050 AND BETWEEN 080-100. MOSTLY
EAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1878...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 92 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 17TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 135 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 171347
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...A DRY LAYER EVIDENT ON THE KTBW SOUNDING FROM H8-H5 WILL
PRECLUDE MUCH DEEP CONVECTION FROM INITIATING AS A DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE HAS NUDGED UP TO 1.18 AT KTBW WITH GPS PWAT VALUES OF .99 AT
ORMOND BEACH / .89 AT LEESBURG AND .95 AT OKEECHOBEE. SLIGHTLY
HIGHER MOISTURE LVLS ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR SRN ZONES
MAY ALLOW FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO TO DEVELOP AND WILL INCLUDE A
SLIGHT CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWER ACROSS MARTIN/OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 80S FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND IN THE UPPER 80S FOR OSCEOLA
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SE/ESE WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE
AND 3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
000
FXUS62 KJAX 171346
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
946 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
SKIES ARE MAINLY SUNNY WITH A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN SOME
LOCATIONS. KJAX SOUNDING IS DRIER TODAY SHOWING PWAT OF 0.95
INCHES AND THIS IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE BLENDED PWAT SATELLITE
PRODUCT SHOWS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY STABLE CONDS
THROUGH THE AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. ATLC SEA
BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND WITH MOSTLY FLAT CUMULUS CLOUDS. NAM
INDICATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS AFTN ACROSS SE GA AND
WILL KEEP LOW END POPS...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW SINCE GFS
PLACES NVA OVER GA LATE TODAY. TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY AND WILL
BE NEAR 90 WELL INLAND AND MID 80S AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONTINUES.
&&
.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS
5-10 KT AND SEAS AVERAGING 2 FT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 89 64 89 66 / 20 20 30 20
SSI 82 70 83 70 / 0 0 20 10
JAX 87 65 87 67 / 0 0 30 20
SGJ 83 68 84 69 / 0 0 20 10
GNV 89 64 89 65 / 0 0 30 20
OCF 90 65 91 66 / 0 0 30 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
TRABERT/GUILLET
000
FXUS62 KTAE 171320
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
920 AM EDT Fri May 17 2013
.NEAR TERM [Today]...
Early morning fog across the Florida Panhandle continues to slowly
erode this morning, with only lingering patchy fog around Panama
City westward to De Funiak Springs. At the surface, our region
remains to the west of a surface high pressure ridge. Aloft, a
disturbance is moving through the Tennessee River Valley. With
limited deep layer moisture, as noted on the morning sounding, any
showers and storms will be isolated at worst, and likely remain
to the north of our region today.
Still expect a good sea breeze circulation this afternoon which
will result in temperatures a good 5 to 8 degrees cooler at the
coast (lower 80s) than sites further inland where upper 80s to
near 90 degrees are possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...
Very Little change in thinking from the previous forecast, as 90
degree High Temperatures appear in store for much of the interior of
our CWA over the upcoming weekend. The one fly in the ointment will
be the eastward progress of a closed Upper Level Low which is now
moving through the lower MS Valley. The trof associated with this
Low will likely provide just enough lift and instability to produce
20-30 percent PoPs during the afternoon hours, especially across
northern and eastern portions of the region, before Upper Level
Ridging builds in from the west thereafter.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
Deep layer ridging is expected over the Southeast U.S. through mid
week. A weak trough is forecast to develop later in the work week.
The GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly when and how much this trough
will develop. Regardless, the NWP guidance consensus is close to
climatology for PoP and temperatures. The PoP will be in the 20-30%
range through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. It will be a warm period, especially given our
relatively cool spring so far, with highs near 90 and lows in the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION [Through 12z Friday]...
Lingering fog dissipating quickly this morning. Only ECP shows
LIFR conditions as of 13z, but this will improve quickly. VFR all
sites after 14z with another round of fog expected overnight,
potentially once again into the IFR/LIFR range.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our coastal
waters for the next several days, with just some minor
enhancements near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, red flag conditions are not
anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 86 61 90 64 90 / 0 0 20 10 20
Panama City 81 67 83 67 83 / 10 0 10 10 10
Dothan 87 65 89 66 89 / 10 10 20 20 20
Albany 88 65 90 65 89 / 10 10 30 20 30
Valdosta 89 63 91 63 90 / 0 10 20 20 30
Cross City 86 62 88 63 88 / 0 0 20 10 30
Apalachicola 79 65 81 67 81 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Godsey
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Godsey
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Godsey
000
FXUS62 KTBW 171313
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
913 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
KTBW 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 1.18 INCHES. SKIES REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF ALTO CUMULUS THIS MORNING
ALREADY BURNING OFF. LIGHT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW THE SEA AND
BAY BREEZES TO GET STARTED EARLY AGAIN THIS MORNING...AND WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE...A FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE MORNING
UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WILL RESULT IN
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. WINDS WILL
BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS OF LESS THAN 2 FEET. ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE HOURS
TODAY...BUT DURATIONS WILL NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A RED
FLAG WARNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 70 89 74 88 / 10 10 10 20
FMY 71 90 71 89 / 20 20 10 20
GIF 69 90 71 91 / 10 30 10 20
SRQ 69 86 72 86 / 10 10 10 20
BKV 62 89 67 90 / 10 20 10 20
SPG 73 87 75 86 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING
AVIATION...CLOSE
000
FXUS62 KMFL 171225
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
SEVERAL WATERSPOUTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED OFF THE COAST OF BROWARD
COUNTY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST...AND HAVE MOVED ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO QUICKLY RETURN TO
THE REGION...WITH DEWPOINTS ALREADY BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S. BUMPED UP THE POPS OVER THE WATER BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND
UPDATED POPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BASED ON HIGH RES MODELS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WATERS AND NEAR THE EAST COAST...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S EAST AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WEST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...
SHOWERS MAINLY OFFSHORE SE COAST THIS AM PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS A
FEW MILES OFFSHORE FLL/PMP MOVING NORTH AND INDICATIVE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE. NEVERTHELESS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONCENTRATE OVER THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL SITES. CALM WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME E/SE BY 15Z, WITH GULF SEABREEZE AT KAPF BY 17Z.
MOLLEDA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
.EARLY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR
THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...THE MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM
AROUND 1 INCH THIS MORNING TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE KEPT THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY WITH
THUNDER WORDING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.
THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY WITH
THUNDER WORDING NOW BEING ADDED FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.
ONCE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK WEST TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE STILL OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WHERE
THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. SO WILL KEEP THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO WORK NORTHWEST AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING THE
POPS TO AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE POPS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND. OCSNL 3-6KFT
CIGS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. EAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING OF 5-10 KT
WILL INCREASE A BIT DURING THE DAY...THEN DIMINISH DIURNALLY THIS
EVENING.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATER SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S TODAY FOR COUPLE OF HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME...NO
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 86 75 87 75 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 88 71 88 71 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...59/RM
000
FXUS62 KMFL 171142
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS MAINLY OFFSHORE SE COAST THIS AM PRODUCING WATERSPOUTS A
FEW MILES OFFSHORE FLL/PMP MOVING NORTH AND INDICATIVE OF
INCREASING MOISTURE. NEVERTHELESS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONCENTRATE OVER THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL SITES. CALM WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME E/SE BY 15Z, WITH GULF SEABREEZE AT KAPF BY 17Z.
MOLLEDA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
..EARLY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...
SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR
THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...THE MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM
AROUND 1 INCH THIS MORNING TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE KEPT THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY WITH
THUNDER WORDING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.
THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY WITH
THUNDER WORDING NOW BEING ADDED FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.
ONCE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK WEST TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE STILL OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WHERE
THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. SO WILL KEEP THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO WORK NORTHWEST AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING THE
POPS TO AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE POPS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND. OCSNL 3-6KFT
CIGS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. EAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING OF 5-10 KT
WILL INCREASE A BIT DURING THE DAY...THEN DIMINISH DIURNALLY THIS
EVENING.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATER SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S TODAY FOR COUPLE OF HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME...NO
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 86 75 87 75 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 87 71 88 71 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR/FIRE...59/MOLLEDA
000
FXUS62 KKEY 171124
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
725 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT EYW AND MTH THIS MORNING.
THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000
FEET.
&&
$$
AVIATION...BS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KKEY 170901
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
501 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...SURFACE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN AND AT THE MARINE OBSERVING STATIONS. MOST COMMUNITIES
ARE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST...WHILE THE CMANS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING
NEAR 10 KNOTS. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE HAVE BEEN NO SHIP REPORTS IN THE
STRAITS...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THE WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER SOUTH OF
THE REEF. THE KBYX RADAR DETECTS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
NORTH NORTHWEST IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S...AND DEWPOINTS ARE CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S. A QUICK
GLANCE AT THE VWP REVEALS LOW LEVEL VEERING WITH WIND BARBS IN THE 15
TO 20 KNOT RANGE. AN AGED...BUT HELPFUL MIMIC TPW IMAGE PLACES A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT TO OUR SOUTH. THE MAJOR PLAYER FOR THE
SHORT AND LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE CELL...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA...AND THE WESTERN
EXTENSION OF ITS RIDGE AXIS. THE HEATING OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EACH AFTERNOON WILL ASSAULT THE CONTINUITY OF THE RIDGES WESTERN
EXTENSION. THUS...THE FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO ACCOUNT FOR A BALANCING
ACT BETWEEN SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FORCING.
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE
WHICH EXTENDED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE GULF MEXICO HAS ROTATED
CLOCKWISE IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK MID LATITUDE CIRCULATION OVER THE
LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE AXIS NOW LIES ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA. AS A RESULT...THE SYNOPTIC GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
HAS RELAXED. IN PLACE OF THE KIBOSH TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...WEAK
ISENTROPIC VEERING HAS EFFECTIVELY MOISTENED THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE COALESCED IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. VEERING IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MESOSCALE
PROCESSES WILL BACK THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO AN ALIGNMENT FAVORABLE FOR
CLOUD LINES. THUS...RAIN CHANCES ARE RETAINED FOR TODAY...AND GIVEN
THE PORTRAYED INSTABILITY IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. FOR TONIGHT...VEERING RETURNS ALONG WITH A
MODERATE WIND SURGE. WINDS WILL BACK AGAIN ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER EPISODE OF CLOUD LINE FORMATION. SUNDAYS THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE APPEARS TO BE DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...AND THE
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS SEEMS WARRANTED. THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT AND NEAR NORMAL...85/76.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE ANALYZED NO REASON TO
ADJUST THE CURRENT PACKAGE WHICH ADVERTISES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. AN INTERESTING SCENARIO HAS REARED ON DAY 7...WHICH IS
KNOWINGLY UNCERTAIN...A DEEP LAYER OF EAST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS AVERAGING 25 KNOTS PLUS. IF THIS SCENARIO COMES TO
FRUITION...AN SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN POPS WILL BE NEEDED. DESPITE
THIS EXCITEMENT...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM.
&&
.MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PERSIST FROM THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ON COASTAL WATERS TODAY...WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.AVIATION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500
FEET...ARE LIKELY AT EYW AND MTH THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF
THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1878...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 92 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 17TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 135 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 85 79 86 79 / 30 30 30 20
MARATHON 88 80 89 80 / 30 30 30 20
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KTBW 170811
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
411 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT THERE WAS A TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA TO CA...RIDGING
OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH A WEAK
UPPER LOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
TROUGHING FROM LABRADOR TO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES THEN ARCED UP TO LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF SAINT
LAWRENCE...A DRYLINE WAS IN FAR WEST TX...AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC ALONG LATITUDE 30 NORTH RIDGED ACROSS FL AND OVER
MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY)...
THE WESTERN TROUGH SLIDES EAST TO THE U.S. PLAINS WITH THE UPPER LOW
DEAMPLIFYING AS IT TREKS EAST...REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN
THE FORM OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO RIDGE ACROSS FL TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH IS
REINFORCED SUN BY THE ONTARIO HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES WITH EAST AND SE LOW LEVEL...BUT RELAXED
ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...THAT GRADUALLY INCREASES
MOISTURE. FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GO FROM AROUND ONE
INCH TODAY TO THE ONE AND ONE HALF INCH RANGE BY SUN. THIS MOISTURE
ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZES AND THE LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING BY
TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT LOW ODDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. TODAY WILL
STILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE WITH CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE FAR SOUTH.
BY SAT AND SUN THE ENTIRE CWA CAN EXPECT TO SEE SHOWERS AND
STORMS...GENERALLY A SLIGHT CHANCE HOWEVER THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON SAT AND PROVIDE ENOUGH
ADDITIONAL ENERGY FOR CHANCE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA. GENERALLY E/SE WINDS WILL BE
IN PLACE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING EACH DAY. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH DAY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HAVE KEPT
RAIN CHANCES AT 30-40 PERCENT WITH THE CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE MID 60S-LOWER 70S EACH MORNING AND IN THE MID 80S COASTAL
TO LOWER 90S INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN EAST AND SE
WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH FOE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
EXPECT ISOLATED POCKETS OF RH BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON INLAND.
HOWEVER DURATIONS OF 3 HOURS AND GENERALLY LESS ALONG WITH WINDS
LESS THAN 15 MPH PRECLUDE ANY RED FLAG WARNINGS. MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM RH ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 70 89 74 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 90 71 90 71 / 20 20 20 10
GIF 90 69 90 71 / 10 10 30 10
SRQ 88 69 86 72 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 89 62 89 67 / 10 10 20 10
SPG 87 73 87 75 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/AVIATION...24/COLSON
000
FXUS62 KTAE 170730
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 AM EDT Fri May 17 2013
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Rather broad troughing covers the southeastern part of the country,
emanating from an area of mid/upper level low pressure beginning to
merge back into the northern stream flow. This low, and associated
trough will gradually move east through tonight. At the surface,
high pressure will nose westward veering flow from the southeast to
a more southerly direction. Based on model soundings, it appears as
though we will still be too dry to squeeze any showers out of the
seabreeze fronts this afternoon, as forecast PWATs depict below
average moisture content. Further, the best forcing associated with
the aforementioned trough will remain well to our northwest and keep
any synoptically forced showers and thunderstorms outside of the
Tri-State region. Expect partly cloudy skies, with upper 80s away
from the coast, and near 80 degrees along the coast. Overnight,
showers will inch closer to the region, but should still remain
northwest of our southeast Alabama, and western Georgia counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...
Very Little change in thinking from the previous forecast, as 90
degree High Temperatures appear in store for much of the interior of
our CWA over the upcoming weekend. The one fly in the ointment will
be the eastward progress of a closed Upper Level Low which is now
moving through the lower MS Valley. The trof associated with this
Low will likely provide just enough lift and instability to produce
20-30 percent PoPs during the afternoon hours, especially across
northern and eastern portions of the region, before Upper Level
Ridging builds in from the west thereafter.
&&
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Wednesday]...
Deep layer ridging is expected over the Southeast U.S. through mid
week. A weak trough is forecast to develop later in the work week.
The GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly when and how much this trough
will develop. Regardless, the NWP guidance consensus is close to
climatology for PoP and temperatures. The PoP will be in the 20-30%
range through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. It will be a warm period, especially given our
relatively cool spring so far, with highs near 90 and lows in the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Patchy fog is expected along the Panhandle coast early this morning,
affecting primarily KECP. The extent of the inland spread is
uncertain at this time, with the possibility for fog at both KTLH
and KDHN by sunrise. Early indications are that restrictions will be
up-and-down between MVFR and IFR before the fog quickly clears after
sunrise. Thereafter, VFR conditions are anticipated for the
remainder of the TAF.
&&
.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our Coastal
Waters for the next several days, with just some minor enhancements
near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, Red Flag conditions are not
anticipated.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 86 61 90 64 90 / 0 0 20 10 20
Panama City 81 67 83 67 83 / 0 0 10 10 10
Dothan 87 65 89 66 89 / 0 10 20 20 20
Albany 88 65 90 65 89 / 0 10 30 20 30
Valdosta 89 63 91 63 90 / 0 10 20 20 30
Cross City 86 62 88 63 88 / 0 0 20 10 30
Apalachicola 79 65 81 67 81 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Gould
000
FXUS62 KMLB 170713
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE AXIS OF A LOW LEVEL BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDING WWD TO THE GULF
ALONG ~28N THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD OVER THE NEXT 24H.
AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS ON THE SEASONALLY LOW SIDE
NR 1.0-1.1 INCHES AS SAMPLED BY RECENT SOUNDINGS AND THE GPS
SATELLITE DERIVED DATA FROM SUOMI NET. DRYING MAINLY ASCD WITH
LONG TERM PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY EASTERLY/SE FLOW ALONG WITH
RIDGE ASCD SUBSIDENCE HAS THUS FAR HINDERED LOW TOPPED MARINE
BASED PCPN.
LIFTING NWD OF THE RIDGE AXIS COMBINED WITH APCH OF A MINOR UPR
TROPOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE AND STEADILY VEERING NR SFC WINDS WL
INCREASE MOISTURE INTO TONIGHT AND SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES WL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. POP LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WL BE USED HOWEVER
DUE TO PREVALENCE OF RECOVERING PWAT JUST ABOVE AN INCH. TEMPS
WILL MAKE IT TO THE MID-UPR 80S WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TONIGHT A FEW INLAND SHOWERS WL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY W OF THE AREA.
WL KEEP A SILENT POP MENTION WITH SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES PSBL AT THE
SPACE-TREASURE COASTS AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO
LOWER 70S.
SAT-SUN...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/500MB SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO TENNESSEE/ALABAMA. COASTAL TIME
HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A SLOW MOISTURE RETURN BUT STILL LIMITED
IN DEPTH TO AROUND 850MB/5000 FEET. LATE NIGHT/MORNING COASTAL
CONVERGENCE SHOWERS VERO BEACH/FORT PIERCE SOUTH. BETWEEN THE UPPER
80S AND AROUND 90S INTERIOR AND A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD FORM EARLY AND PUSH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON COLLISIONS WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE IN AREAS WEST OF ORLANDO..
MON-FRI...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING OVERALL MOISTURE
LEVEL OF THE WHOLE ATMOSPHERE INCREASING WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE STILL BEING BELOW 850MB/5000 FEET. CHANCE/30 POP OF
AFTERNOON STORMS/SHOWER INTERIOR COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
MORNING COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOWER WITH EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS
COASTAL COUNTIES. RAIN CHANCES 20-30 PERCENT EACH DAY. HIGHS UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S INTERIOR AND MID TO HIGH 80S COASTAL AREAS. LOWS
MID/UPPER 60S INTERIOR AND UPPER 60S/LOW 70S COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS AREA WIDE WITH NO CIGS FORECAST BLO FL 120. EASTERLY SFC
WND G NR 15 TO 18 KTS WL BECOME PREVALENT ALONG COAST FM 17Z-23Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER AFTERNOON
GUSTS FM AROND 1 PM THROUGH 8 PM. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT.
SAT- TUE. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS
GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET WITH A 2 TO 3 FOOT LONG PERIOD SWELL
COMPONENT. THE SWELL COMPONENT MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE A ROLE IN
INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MIN RH CONCERNS INTO NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 67 86 69 / 10 10 20 10
MCO 89 67 90 68 / 10 10 30 20
MLB 85 70 86 72 / 10 10 20 10
VRB 84 69 85 70 / 10 10 20 10
LEE 89 68 91 70 / 10 10 30 20
SFB 89 68 90 70 / 10 10 20 10
ORL 89 70 91 71 / 10 10 30 20
FPR 84 69 85 69 / 10 10 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PENDERGRAST
LONG TERM....WIMMER
000
FXUS62 KMFL 170652
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
252 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
...EARLY SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK...
.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR
THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.
AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...THE MOISTURE WILL
BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES INCREASING FROM
AROUND 1 INCH THIS MORNING TO AROUND 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO HAVE KEPT THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY WITH
THUNDER WORDING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.
THE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SATURDAY WITH
THUNDER WORDING NOW BEING ADDED FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.
ONCE THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE HIGH WILL THEN BUILD BACK WEST TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK BACK INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW STORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE STILL OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WHERE
THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. SO WILL KEEP THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK EAST FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS
ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
TO WORK NORTHWEST AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO WILL CONTINUE THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING THE
POPS TO AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT FOR MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKING
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE POPS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE RAISED IN LATER FORECASTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND. OCSNL 3-6KFT
CIGS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. EAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING OF 5-10 KT
WILL INCREASE A BIT DURING THE DAY...THEN DIMINISH DIURNALLY THIS
EVENING.
&&
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATER SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 30S TODAY FOR COUPLE OF HOURS. SO AT THIS TIME...NO
FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 86 75 87 75 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 87 71 88 71 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
000
FXUS62 KJAX 170644
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH MONDAY...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE WITH A SELY
STEERING FLOW THAT WILL PUSH THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE WELL INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A MIX OF
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AS MOISTURE LEVELS SLOWLY INCREASE. CURRENT PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH WILL INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 1.5 INCHES ACROSS
SE GA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ACROSS NE FL. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE I-75
CORRIDOR AND INLD SE GA WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. PRECIP CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM 10% ACROSS
INLAND NE FL TO 20% ACROSS INLD SE GA. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 OVER INLAND
AREAS. AS ATLC COAST SBRZ MOVES INLAND BREEZY SELY WINDS AROUND 15
MPH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST.
TONIGHT...ANY ISOLD STORMS OVER INLD SE GA THIS EVENING WILL FADE BY
MIDNIGHT OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.
SATURDAY...AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TRACKS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT...RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND THIS
WILL ONLY ALLOW THE ATLC COAST SBRZ FRONT TO MOVE INLAND TO THE U.S.
301 CORRIDOR WHERE IT WILL MEET UP WITH THE GOMEX SBRZ FRONT. THIS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS INCREASED UP
TO 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK OFF SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. FOR NOW
HAVE CAPPED POPS IN THE 25-35% RANGE. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL PUSH WELL
INTO THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 OVER INLAND AREAS AND MIDDLE 80S ALONG
THE COAST BEHIND THE SBRZ FRONT.
SUN/MON...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION THIS
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE
SURFACE PATTERN WILL FAVOR SEA BREEZE ENHANCED DIURNAL CONVECTION
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER PATTERN HELPING TO FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE...EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON...THAT BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHEN UPPER
TROUGHING IS MOST PRONOUNCED. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST
INLAND AWAY FROM SEA BREEZE...WITH READINGS GENERALLY NEAR OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL THIS PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE THE UPPER TROUGHING WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN THIS
PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION.
WITH THIS PATTERN EXPECT ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL AFFECTS AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND NEAR NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS JUST TO THE EAST.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND THIS WILL CONTINUE A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 15 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST. SEAS WILL CONTINUE
GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK AS EASTERLY SWELLS HAVE NUDGED DOWNWARDS A
BIT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 89 64 89 66 / 20 20 30 20
SSI 82 70 83 70 / 0 0 20 10
JAX 87 65 87 67 / 0 0 30 20
SGJ 83 68 84 69 / 0 0 20 10
GNV 89 64 89 65 / 0 0 30 20
OCF 90 65 91 66 / 0 0 30 20
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
HESS/STRUBLE
000
FXUS62 KMFL 170609
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
209 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND. OCSNL 3-6KFT
CIGS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS ATTM. EAST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING OF 5-10 KT
WILL INCREASE A BIT DURING THE DAY...THEN DIMINISH DIURNALLY THIS
EVENING.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER...WITH DRY LOW AND
MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WAS MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT MIDDLE OF
MAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST WILL ALSO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS WELL...WITH FLOW
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND NORMAL (1.3-1.5 INCHES)
ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE WILL STILL BE A CAP IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE.
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO CANADA ON SATURDAY...AND THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL GET BLOCKED AND BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
IN THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE...AND
HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION. 500MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
COOL TO AROUND -10C. WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STORM
MOTION WILL BE ALMOST ZERO AS FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS OUT OF THE
EAST...FLOW AT 850MB WILL BE LIGHT AND FLOW ABOVE THAT LEVEL WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE
STORMS DEVELOP. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS
THE GULF COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRY AND DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BUT ITS PROGRESS WILL GET BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THE LOW OVER CANADA EAST OF HUDSON BAY. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. SO 500MB TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO
-10 TO -11C FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION EACH DAY. THE UPPER
LOW/SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND PUSH SLIGHTLY EAST AS
WELL. SO THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD THEN PUSH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MODELS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GFS BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
1.7-1.9 INCHES. THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN EACH DAY IF
THIS OCCURS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SHARPER WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS COULD ACTUALLY KEEP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
EAST AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S GULF COAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATER
SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 86 75 87 75 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 87 71 88 71 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
000
FXUS62 KKEY 170254
AFDKEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1054 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MILD AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER PREVAILS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS...WITH MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZES UNDER A WAXING CRESCENT MOON
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SUCH CONDITIONS USUALLY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DRY...DESCENDING AIR ALOFT...AND INDEED THAT IS WHAT
DATA COLLECTED BY RADIOSONDE BALLOONS AND SATELLITES ACROSS THE
REGION REVEAL. AT LOW ALTITUDES...EAST WINDS STILL PREVAIL AT THIS
HOUR AS SHOWN BY RECENT DOPPLER WIND PROFILER MEASUREMENTS.
HOWEVER...A LIKELY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW A
FOSSIL MOIST LAYER FROM A CUBAN SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A GENTLE...SLANTED LIFTING MAY
COMMENCE AS WELL...LEADING TO SOME LOW CLOUD AND SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY LATE. THE FORECASTS GENERALLY INDICATE THIS
SCENARIO ALREADY...SO FEW ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NECESSARY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...UNTIL WINDS DIMINISH TO CLOSER TO A STEADY 15
KNOTS AND SEAS SUBSIDE BELOW SIX FEET. ISOLATED SHOWERS LIKELY WILL
POP UP FIRST WELL OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASING
COVERAGE CLOSER TO SHORE LATE.
&&
.AVIATION...
THROUGH 00Z/18TH...FORECASTED TO THE SIDE OF CAUTION WITH THE 00Z
TAFS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT MOISTENING AND MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOW LEVELS THROUGH 12Z. AFTERNOON CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE...BUT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
GENERALLY A REGIME THAT SHOWS A PREFERENCE FOR NOCTURNAL AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY...RATHER THAN AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS MODERATE AT BEST HOWEVER...STAY TUNED
FOR UPDATES AND AMENDMENTS.
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE-DEVANAS
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST
000
FXUS62 KMLB 170221
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN
THIRD OF FL. LIGHT-MDT ESE-SE FLOW CONTINUES TO WANE POST-SUNSET
AS TEMPS FALL TOWARD 70F. WEAK RIPPLES IN THE H50 VORTICITY FIELD
CONTINUE TO STREAM EWD FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE SE SEABOARD. ASCD
SLUG OF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH ASCENDING LF QUAD OF H25 JET STREAK
IS PRODUCING SOME WEAK ECHOES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FL. RAOB
MOISTURE PROFILE INDICATE THAT THIS IS SURELY VIRGA DISSIPATING AS
IT REACHES VERY LOW RH AIR MASS BELOW NEAR/BELOW 15KFT.
TONIGHT...GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOISTURE SLUG CENTERED AROUND H50
CONTINUING TO SAG SE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NRN GOMEX. EXPECT TO SEE A LITTLE MORE
HIGH (AC/AS/CS) CLOUDS DEVELOP OVERHEAD TONIGHT...HOWEVER THICKNESS
WILL BE LIMITED TO WHERE OVERALL OPACITY STILL WARRANTS "PCLDY SKIES"
OTRW...NOSIG CHANGES TO WINDS/TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...ESE-SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND
3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECAST/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...MOSES
000
FXUS62 KTBW 170135
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC OVER FLORIDA
WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY MORNING APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK TO FALL CLOSE TO NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK
WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES PLANNED FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 69 88 70 89 / 0 10 10 10
FMY 67 90 71 90 / 10 20 20 30
GIF 67 90 69 90 / 0 10 10 30
SRQ 66 88 69 86 / 0 10 10 10
BKV 60 89 62 89 / 0 10 10 30
SPG 73 87 73 87 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...05/CARLISLE
AVIATION...21/JELSEMA
000
FXUS62 KJAX 170125
AFDJAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
925 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MOST OF THE MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS ARE PUSHING E THROUGH NE FL WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST MODEL CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING SIMILAR TRENDS. BROAD WSW FLOW NOTED AROUND 500 MB WITH A
WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NW ARKANSAS AT 00Z AND
TROUGHING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SFC RIDGE CONTINUES
OVER NRN PARTS OF FL. A MILD NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOWER
60S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S COAST. LIGHT SE TO S WINDS WILL VEER
AND DECREASE THROUGH NIGHT. THE 00Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPS BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WITH PWAT OF
1.2 INCHES. VERY LIGHT AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE INLAND ZONES BUT
DOES NOT WARRANT BEING IN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DUE A WEAK
INVERSION AND RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE
2 TO 3 FEET WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THE 60NM MARKER.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY WILL DROP BACK TO A LOW RISK ON
FRIDAY DUE TO DECREASED SWELLS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 61 89 63 89 / 10 20 20 30
SSI 68 81 69 81 / 0 0 10 20
JAX 64 86 65 87 / 0 0 10 30
SGJ 65 82 68 84 / 0 0 10 20
GNV 62 89 63 89 / 0 20 20 30
OCF 63 90 64 89 / 0 20 20 30
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/SHULER/WALKER
000
FXUS62 KTAE 170019
AFDTAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
820 PM EDT Thu May 16 2013
.NEAR TERM [Tonight]...
Another quiet night ahead with the exception of fog developing after
midnight. Some of the fog may briefly become dense toward daybreak,
especially over our Florida and SE Alabama zones. Low temps will
generally be in the lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM [Friday through Sunday]...
The closed low (currently over OK) is expected to translate slowly
eastward across the Southeast U.S. through this weekend. However,
the bulk of the deep layer moisture and Q-G forcing associated with
this feature is likely to be north of our forecast area. This will
leave our region with PoPs in the 20-30% range, mainly during the
afternoon and evening hours when instability and mesoscale boundary
interactions are maximized. It will finally feel like late Spring,
as highs approach 90 deg and lows stay in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM [Monday through Thursday]...
Deep layer ridging is expected over the Southeast U.S. through mid
week. A weak trough is forecast to develop later in the work week.
The GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly when and how much this trough
will develop. Regardless, the NWP guidance consensus is close to
climatology for PoP and temperatures. The PoP will be in the 20-30%
range through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. It will be a warm period, especially given our
relatively cool spring so far, with highs near 90 and lows in the
60s.
&&
.Aviation [Through 00Z Friday]...
Potential for MVFR fog development late tonight into tomorrow
morning at all sites. Locally dense fog will result in IFR conditions
from KTLH westward. Fog will dissipate shortly after sunrise and
conditions will return to VFR with light southerly winds.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be at their typically low late spring/early
summertime values. Winds and inland water chop may increase at the
coast during the afternoon hours due to the sea breeze circulation
enhancement.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will likely remain well below flood stage
for the next several days.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 61 88 61 88 64 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 66 82 67 83 69 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 62 88 65 88 67 / 0 10 10 10 10
Albany 62 89 64 90 65 / 0 10 10 20 20
Valdosta 61 87 63 88 63 / 0 10 10 10 20
Cross City 61 88 62 88 63 / 0 0 10 20 10
Apalachicola 64 80 65 81 67 / 0 0 0 10 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Walsh/Block
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier/Block
HYDROLOGY...Fournier
000
FXUS62 KMFL 162343
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
743 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SCT040-050 AT TIMES AND A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE WIND. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH
COASTS ON FRIDAY BETWEEN 16-18Z. MODELS SUGGEST SOME MOISTURE
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AND EVEN
A SHOWER OR TWO. CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IS NOT HIGH IN THIS HAPPENING
AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER...WITH DRY LOW AND
MID LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINTS REMAINED IN THE LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WAS MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT MIDDLE OF
MAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL MOVE EAST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST WILL ALSO MOVE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST AS WELL...WITH FLOW
VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND NORMAL (1.3-1.5 INCHES)
ACROSS THE REGION AND EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA. DEWPOINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE WILL STILL BE A CAP IN THE LOW/MID
LEVELS...BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE.
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRETCH FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO CANADA ON SATURDAY...AND THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL GET BLOCKED AND BEGIN TO PUSH TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
IN THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE RIDGE...AND
HEIGHTS WILL FALL ACROSS THE REGION. 500MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO
COOL TO AROUND -10C. WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STORM
MOTION WILL BE ALMOST ZERO AS FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS OUT OF THE
EAST...FLOW AT 850MB WILL BE LIGHT AND FLOW ABOVE THAT LEVEL WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WHERE
STORMS DEVELOP. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS
THE GULF COAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRY AND DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BUT ITS PROGRESS WILL GET BLOCKED BY THE RIDGE OVER THE
EAST COAST AND THE LOW OVER CANADA EAST OF HUDSON BAY. WEAK
TROUGHING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE
GETTING TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE. SO 500MB TEMPS WILL COOL BACK TO
-10 TO -11C FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION EACH DAY. THE UPPER
LOW/SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FINALLY PUSH EAST ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND PUSH SLIGHTLY EAST AS
WELL. SO THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WOULD THEN PUSH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MODELS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGING THE DEEPER MOISTURE. THE GFS BRINGS DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO
1.7-1.9 INCHES. THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN EACH DAY IF
THIS OCCURS. THE ECMWF IS STRONGER AND SHARPER WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS COULD ACTUALLY KEEP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
EAST AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S GULF COAST. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE COASTAL AREAS AND 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WITH SCATTERED 4-6 KFT CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY DURING
AFTERNOON. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-12 KTS BY MID-MRNG WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
WESTERLY GULF BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT NAPLES BTWN 19-2Z. FOR
FRIDAY MORNING WE EXPECT A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AND CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SPRINKLES BY AROUND
SUNRISE.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS THIS WEEKEND FROM THE
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATER
SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 85 75 85 / - 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 84 77 86 / - 10 20 20
MIAMI 74 86 75 87 / - 20 20 30
NAPLES 68 89 71 89 / - 20 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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