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000
FXUS62 KMFL 030602
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING...
THOUGH A BROKEN STRATOCU LAYER HAS DEVELOPED OVER KPBI BRINGING
MVFR. EXPECT VFR TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
OVERNIGHT AT EAST COAST TERMINALS. EXPECT ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO
BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS NEAR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON. LATER UPDATES MAY NEED TO INTRODUCE VCTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  73  88  65 /  50  40  70  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  88  67 /  40  40  60  60
MIAMI            90  74  89  68 /  40  30  60  60
NAPLES           87  73  85  68 /  20  20  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22/KS



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000
FXUS62 KTBW 030536
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
136 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE FROM KLAL TO KSRQ SOUTHWARD. ONGOING AREA OF SHRA
SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT NORTH...AFFECTING PRIMARILY KRSW/KFMY...AND
POSSIBLY KPGD BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. PATCHY
FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH IMPACTS TO VSBYS MORE LIKELY AT
KLAL AND KPGD. WINDS TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY LATE
MORNING...INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOCUS FOR SCT TSRA
LOOKS TO SHIFT INLAND FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH THE SEABREEZE...AND WILL
ONLY MENTION VCTS AT KLAL FROM 18Z ON.

84/AUSTIN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 838 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

UPDATE...
EARLY EVENING KTBW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS LINED UP ALONG THE SPINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
(HRRR) AND OTHER HIGH RES/SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE
STORMS DRIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LINGERING CELLS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.

AFTER THE CONVECTION WINDS DOWN...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 70 OVER THE INTERIOR...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST. TUESDAY WILL IN MANY WAYS SETUP SIMILAR TO
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSH...KEEPING THE STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR. AS THESE STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
09-10Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THESE LOW CEILINGS LIFT
OUT...THE ONLY THREAT OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TUESDAY EVENING AND CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS FILLING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...LIKELY CAUSING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
FMY  72  89  73  86 /  10  20  20  70
GIF  71  88  70  81 /  40  40  30  70
SRQ  73  83  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
BKV  68  85  68  81 /  10  20  50  70
SPG  75  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  81  66  81 /  40  70  10   0
FMY  73  86  67  83 /  20  70  20   0
GIF  70  81  62  82 /  30  70  10   0
SRQ  73  81  67  79 /  40  70  10   0
BKV  68  81  59  80 /  50  70  10   0
SPG  73  81  68  81 /  40  70  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

PRIOR AFD...
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



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000
FXUS62 KTAE 030235
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front
extending from Huntsville through Lake Charles. A weak, cold
pool-induced high pressure system was centered over south central
AL, with a couple of weak outflow boundaries on its southeast
flank across portions of southeast AL and the northeast Gulf
Coast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a subtle short wave
trough entering the FL Panhandle and south AL, though much of the
thunderstorm activity associated with this feature has
diminished. Weak Q-G forcing will persist until early Tuesday
morning, when this short wave trough passes to our east. Until
this forcing ends, a few showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible, owing to sufficient buoyancy and PBL moisture, as well
as possible mesoscale boundary interactions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [739 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

An east-west oriented area of +PV that stretches from the Great
Lakes region, through the Plains and and Pacific Northwest, will
begin to move southeast as another +PV anomaly dives south through
the Northern Plains tonight. At the surface, the associated cold
front currently draped through the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys will enter the Tri-State late Tuesday afternoon.
While convection is expected tomorrow along the cold front, storms
will be possible earlier in the day as well as an increasingly
diffluent upper level pattern provides some extra support to what
will likely be a weak seabreeze due to high cloudiness. Further,
moderately steep lapse rates are expected to advect through the
region during the first half of the day tomorrow, sourced from the
EML over Mexico. This will result in the potential for small to
marginally severe hail through the first half of the day. Through
the day, plenty of instability will couple with marginal deep
layer shear to also warrant the potential for gusty to damaging
winds. The damaging wind threat may increase later in the day as
deep layer shear increases a bit. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will come to an end across all but the southeast Big Bend by dawn
on Wednesday, and everywhere by the afternoon. Wednesday will
feature much cooler afternoon temperatures than recent days, with
upper 70s west of the Flint and Apalachicola rives, and highs
around 80 elsewhere. Lows Wednesday night are expected to fall
into the low 60s across north Florida, and the upper 50s across
Alabama and Georgia.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The week will end with slightly below seasonal temperatures both
day and night as a large upper trough remains over the eastern
third of the country. Through the weekend, ridging will build back
in with temperatures climbing to seasonal normals or slightly
above. Rain is not expected Thursday through Monday.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

Isolated TSRA are possible overnight, but PoPs are too low for
their mention in this TAF package. NWP guidance agreement is
rather high in developing widespread MVFR cigs/Vis late tonight,
with a good chance of several sites dropping to IFR levels at
times. Cigs/Vis will improve mid to late morning. Numerous TSRA
will develop by Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves slowly
southeast across the region.


.MARINE...

Light southwesterly flow will become northwesterly around
Cautionary levels behind a front Wednesday through Thursday night.
Thereafter, light winds and low seas are expected to prevail
through the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

After a rainy Tuesday, much drier and slightly cooler air will move
into the region behind a cold front Wednesday. Stronger winds and
deep mixing may drive daytime dispersion values up to 75 Wednesday
afternoon. Afternoon RH values may reach locally critical thresholds
later this week.


.HYDROLOGY...

Expected rainfall amounts around an inch through Tuesday are not
expected to aggravate current river levels. No rain is expected
from midweek through early next week. Thus, there are no
hydrology concerns for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  83  66  80  60 /  20  70  30  10  10
Panama City   72  79  67  77  65 /  30  60  30  10   0
Dothan        68  80  60  76  57 /  40  80  30  10  10
Albany        68  82  63  77  57 /  30  80  50  10  10
Valdosta      69  85  66  81  58 /  20  60  50  20  10
Cross City    68  86  70  80  62 /  20  20  40  40   0
Apalachicola  72  79  69  78  66 /  30  50  40  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTAE 030235
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1035 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 8 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front
extending from Huntsville through Lake Charles. A weak, cold
pool-induced high pressure system was centered over south central
AL, with a couple of weak outflow boundaries on its southeast
flank across portions of southeast AL and the northeast Gulf
Coast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a subtle short wave
trough entering the FL Panhandle and south AL, though much of the
thunderstorm activity associated with this feature has
diminished. Weak Q-G forcing will persist until early Tuesday
morning, when this short wave trough passes to our east. Until
this forcing ends, a few showers and thunderstorms will remain
possible, owing to sufficient buoyancy and PBL moisture, as well
as possible mesoscale boundary interactions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [739 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

An east-west oriented area of +PV that stretches from the Great
Lakes region, through the Plains and and Pacific Northwest, will
begin to move southeast as another +PV anomaly dives south through
the Northern Plains tonight. At the surface, the associated cold
front currently draped through the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys will enter the Tri-State late Tuesday afternoon.
While convection is expected tomorrow along the cold front, storms
will be possible earlier in the day as well as an increasingly
diffluent upper level pattern provides some extra support to what
will likely be a weak seabreeze due to high cloudiness. Further,
moderately steep lapse rates are expected to advect through the
region during the first half of the day tomorrow, sourced from the
EML over Mexico. This will result in the potential for small to
marginally severe hail through the first half of the day. Through
the day, plenty of instability will couple with marginal deep
layer shear to also warrant the potential for gusty to damaging
winds. The damaging wind threat may increase later in the day as
deep layer shear increases a bit. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will come to an end across all but the southeast Big Bend by dawn
on Wednesday, and everywhere by the afternoon. Wednesday will
feature much cooler afternoon temperatures than recent days, with
upper 70s west of the Flint and Apalachicola rives, and highs
around 80 elsewhere. Lows Wednesday night are expected to fall
into the low 60s across north Florida, and the upper 50s across
Alabama and Georgia.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The week will end with slightly below seasonal temperatures both
day and night as a large upper trough remains over the eastern
third of the country. Through the weekend, ridging will build back
in with temperatures climbing to seasonal normals or slightly
above. Rain is not expected Thursday through Monday.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

Isolated TSRA are possible overnight, but PoPs are too low for
their mention in this TAF package. NWP guidance agreement is
rather high in developing widespread MVFR cigs/Vis late tonight,
with a good chance of several sites dropping to IFR levels at
times. Cigs/Vis will improve mid to late morning. Numerous TSRA
will develop by Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves slowly
southeast across the region.


.MARINE...

Light southwesterly flow will become northwesterly around
Cautionary levels behind a front Wednesday through Thursday night.
Thereafter, light winds and low seas are expected to prevail
through the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

After a rainy Tuesday, much drier and slightly cooler air will move
into the region behind a cold front Wednesday. Stronger winds and
deep mixing may drive daytime dispersion values up to 75 Wednesday
afternoon. Afternoon RH values may reach locally critical thresholds
later this week.


.HYDROLOGY...

Expected rainfall amounts around an inch through Tuesday are not
expected to aggravate current river levels. No rain is expected
from midweek through early next week. Thus, there are no
hydrology concerns for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  83  66  80  60 /  20  70  30  10  10
Panama City   72  79  67  77  65 /  30  60  30  10   0
Dothan        68  80  60  76  57 /  40  80  30  10  10
Albany        68  82  63  77  57 /  30  80  50  10  10
Valdosta      69  85  66  81  58 /  20  60  50  20  10
Cross City    68  86  70  80  62 /  20  20  40  40   0
Apalachicola  72  79  69  78  66 /  30  50  40  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan



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000
FXUS62 KMLB 030207
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1005 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

ATMOSPHERE LIVED UP TO ITS MAY REP AS THE SUNSET COLLISION BETWEEN
VIGOROUS (15-18KT OF SE FLOW) SEA BREEZE BDRYS PRODUCE A N-S BAND
OF INTENSE CONVECTION WHICH EXTENDED FROM LAKE OKEE NWD INTO SERN GA.
OVER THE PAST 2HR...THE BAND HAS BECOME MORE OF AN EXPANSE OF SCT TO
NMRS CLUSTERS OF STORMS COVERING THE CTRL INTERIOR (EAST OF LAKE CO).
STEERING WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE/VEER FROM MIDDAY (SSW@6-8KT)
AND ARE NOW SW AT CLOSER TO 12-15KT. THIS PLACES THE BEST CHC FOR TS
TO MOVE BACK ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OVER VOLUSIA CO...A LITTLE LESS SO
FARTHER SOUTH INTO BREVARD. SEEMS UNLIKELY ATTM FOR THE CELLS W-NW
OF LAKE OKEE TO REACH THE TREASURE COAST...BUT WILL MONITOR TRENDS
ON RADAR. ANY UPDATE TO THE ZFP WILL BE LATE IN COMING...AND WILL
LIKELY REMOVE POPS FOR LAKE CO...BUT LEAVE IN ELSEWHERE THROUGH 06Z.
WILL LIKELY ADJUST NUMBERS UP INTERIOR/NORTH A TAD AND SHAVE THEM
BACK FOR THE SERN CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...NMRS IFR TS OVER THE ISM-MCO-SFB CORRIDOR THROUGH 04Z.
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO IMPACT KDAB VCNTY AND PSBLY KTIX AS WELL. A BIT
MORE IFFY @MLB...AND UNLIKELY FARTHER SOUTH @VRB-SUA. AMD PENDING
FOR KDAB-KTIX BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. LOOKS EVEN MORE ACTIVE FOR
ALL TERMINAL SITES TUE 18Z-24Z. 00Z TAF SET ADDED VCTS STARTING 17-
18Z INLAND AND 20-21Z ALONG THE COAST...SAVE FOR EARLIER START AT
KSUA. VERY LIKELY TO SEE TEMPO GROUPS ADDED FOR 12Z (IF NOT 06Z)
TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS A LITTLE MORE BACKED AND STRONGER THAN CURRENT FCST
OWING AT LEAST IN PART TO THE VIGOROUS ECSB CIRC. MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS WINDS TRENDING MORE SRLY PER THE CURRENT FCST. WILL TWEAK TO
FCST TO SHOW WINDS TRENDING FROM SE@15-20KT TWD SRLY WITH A LITTLE
WEAKER WINDSPEEDS. SEAS 3-4FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

TUE...TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WX PATTERN AS AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE PRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE FL STRAITS. INCREASING S/SW
FLOW WILL RESULT...PULLING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL
FL WHILE STEADILY ERODING THE A MID LVL CAP THERMAL CAP. THIS COMBO
WILL ALLOW SCT SHRAS/TSRAS TO DVLP ACRS THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON.
HIGHER POPS ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A
"MARGINAL" SVR WX THREAT. STEADY SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL GENERATE ABV
AVG TEMPS... TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY INCREASING CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE.
AFTN MAXES IN THE M/U80S ALONG THE COAST...U80S/L90S INTERIOR.

TUE NIGHT...EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
LATE EVENING AS MID LVL SW FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHORT
RANGE GUID INDICATES LEADING EDGE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PSBL
STORMS SHOULD REACH NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 5AM WITH
MAIN PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WED-WED NIGHT...DIGGING S/W TROUGH WITHIN THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH
WILL DRIVE STRONGER CONVECTION ON WED...INITIALLY ACROSS NRN ZONES
IN THE MORNING AND THEN MOVING SE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS E
CENTRAL FL IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POSSIBLE HAIL THE MAIN THUNDERSTORMS HAZARDS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STORMS TRAIN EASTWARD AS THE WHOLE CONVECTIVE LINE
TRANSITIONS SE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL INCREASE POPS TO 70 PCT RANGE
CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION FOR NRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER 80S...TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR WED NIGHT...EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN ZONES BEFORE PUSHING SE IN THE LATE EVENING.
NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING CLEARING AND COOLER TEMPS WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

LATE WEEK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE COOL EVENINGS THU
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO
LOWER 60S AND HIGHS RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 80S. NO RAIN IS
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXTENDED...BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE MS
VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH A DRY
FORECAST INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FROM THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 02/18Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 03/02Z...S/SE 7-12KTS...OCNL SFC G18-22KTS S OF
KMLB. BTWN 03/02Z-03/05Z...BCMG S/SW 4-8KTS. AFT 03/14Z...S/SW 7-
11KTS...BCMG S/SE 8-12KTS S OF KMLB.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 02/21Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS DVLPG ON
THE ECSB MVG N ARND 10KTS. BTWN 02/21Z-02/24Z...INTERIOR SITES SCT
IFR TSRAS/SLGT CHC LIFR +TSRAS WITH SFC G35KTS MVG N 10-15KTS...
COASTAL SITES SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS...MVG N ARND 10KTS. BTWN 03/00Z-
03/04Z...N OF KMLB-KISM CHC IFR TSRAS/SLGT CHC LIFR +TSRA WITH SFC
G35KTS. AFT 03/15Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TUESDAY...MARGINAL CONDS AS A HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
MAINTAINS A GENTLE TO MODERATE...OCNL FRESH...S/SE BREEZE ACRS THE
LCL ATLC. SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE. WAVE PDS OPENING
UP TO 8-9SEC. CHC OF TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET TOWARD
SUNSET CONTG INTO LATE EVNG. NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION SET FOR TUE
AFTN WITH SCT TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
EXPECTED WED BEFORE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT.
INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BECOME NW WED NIGHT AND REACH
SCEC LEVELS. A REINFORCING NW SURGE IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED OFFSHORE. NW-N WINDS FRIDAY
WILL WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING SEAS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER BEYOND WED NIGHT EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WX...
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THRU MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUE...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WED.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. SCT SHRAS/TSRAS TUE AND NMRS SHRAS/TSRAS WED WILL MITIGATE
DRY FUEL CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  88  70  82 /  40  50  30  70
MCO  70  90  71  82 /  40  40  20  70
MLB  69  87  70  82 /  30  50  20  70
VRB  68  88  70  85 /  30  50  30  70
LEE  70  89  72  82 /  40  40  30  70
SFB  70  89  73  82 /  40  40  30  70
ORL  70  90  72  82 /  40  40  30  70
FPR  69  88  69  86 /  30  40  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$



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000
FXUS62 KKEY 030143 CCA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM...OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DEPICT MANY COLD CORE UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS INTERSPERSED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A STRONG WESTERLY
MIDDLE AND UPPER JETSTREAM CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AVERAGING 75 TO 100 KNOTS AT 250
MB...DECELERATING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE LAND AND
MARINE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING  SOUTHWEST TO OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE FLORIDA
KEYS ARE NEAR THE WESTERN MOST EDGE OF A DEPARTING ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE. AS SUCH...THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO ONLY ABOUT 950 MB
BECOMING SOUTH ABOVE THAT UP TO 700...WITH A MOISTENING LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERE INDICATED BY PWAT AT AROUND 1.49 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS LIGHT
ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN NEAR 80
DEGREES WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG
THE FLORIDA REEF ARE SEEING WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT OUT AT PULASKI
SHOAL...CLOSER TO A SURFACE COL...BUT REMAIN MODERATE AND EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ADJOINING THE INHABITED KEYS
ISLAND CHAIN...AS WELL AS IN FLORIDA BAY AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT IN
THE GULF WATERS NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST

.SHORT TERM...OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AS THE
SURFACE FRONT TRUDGES SOUTHEAST SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THE
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN
MORE...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTH FLOW
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT MAY BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF
KEY WEST. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE A
CONTINUATION OF MOISTENING IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT...WITH PWAT REACHING TO BETWEEN ONE AND ONE AND A HALF AND
ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...A COLLAPSE IN THE GRADIENT AND
LITTLE FORCING WILL ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO
INDICATED IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS AS WELL. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE PUBLIC FORECAST ON THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT...BREEZES WILL COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS. BREEZES NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND BECOMING GENTLE WHILE VEERING AROUND TO BETWEEN
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTL ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING
10 TO 12 KNOTS FROM 110 DEGREES WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS WILL BECOME 160 DEGREES AND DECREASE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS BY
12Z...THEN BECOME 230-260 DEGREES AT 5 TO 9 KNOTS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KMTH IN A CLOUDLINE DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS AT FL020-025 AND FL050-060
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE....................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS................FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR........DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 030142
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM...OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DEPICT MANY COLD CORE UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS INTERSPERSED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A STRONG WESTERLY
MIDDLE AND UPPER JETSTREAM CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AVERAGING 75 TO 100 KNOTS AT 250
MB...DECELERATING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE LAND AND
MARINE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING  SOUTHWEST TO OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE FLORIDA
KEYS ARE NEAR THE WESTERN MOST EDGE OF A DEPARTING ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE. AS SUCH...THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO ONLY ABOUT 950 MB
BECOMING SOUTH ABOVE THAT UP TO 700...WITH A MOISTENING LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERE INDICATED BY PWAT AT AROUND 1.49 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS LIGHT
ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN NEAR 80
DEGREES WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG
THE FLORIDA REEF ARE SEEING WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT OUT AT PULASKI
SHOAL...CLOSER TO A SURFACE COL...BUT REMAIN MODERATE AND EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ADJOINING THE INHABITED KEYS
ISLAND CHAIN...AS WELL AS IN FLORIDA BAY AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT IN
THE GULF WATERS NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST

.SHORT TERM...OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AS THE
SURFACE FRONT TRUDGES SOUTHEAST SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THE
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN
MORE...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTH FLOW
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT MAY BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF
KEY WEST. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE A
CONTINUATION OF MOISTENING IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT...WITH PWAT REACHING TO BETWEEN ONE AND ONE AND A HALF AND
ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...A COLLAPSE IN THE GRADIENT AND
LITTLE FORCING WILL ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO
INDICATED IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS AS WELL. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE PUBLIC FORECAST ON THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT...BREEZES WILL COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS. BREEZES NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND BECOMING GENTLE WHILE VEERING AROUND TO BETWEEN
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTL ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING
10 TO 12 KNOTS FROM 110 DEGREES WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS WILL BECOME 160 DEGREES AND DECREASE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS BY
12Z...THEN BECOME 230-260 DEGREES AT 5 TO 9 KNOTS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KMTH IN A CLOUDLINE DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS AT FL020-025 AND FL050-060
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SCA FOR GMZ052-055&GMZ072-075 THRU 10Z.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE....................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS................FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR........DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 030142
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM...OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DEPICT MANY COLD CORE UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS INTERSPERSED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A STRONG WESTERLY
MIDDLE AND UPPER JETSTREAM CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AVERAGING 75 TO 100 KNOTS AT 250
MB...DECELERATING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE LAND AND
MARINE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING  SOUTHWEST TO OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE FLORIDA
KEYS ARE NEAR THE WESTERN MOST EDGE OF A DEPARTING ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE. AS SUCH...THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO ONLY ABOUT 950 MB
BECOMING SOUTH ABOVE THAT UP TO 700...WITH A MOISTENING LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERE INDICATED BY PWAT AT AROUND 1.49 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS LIGHT
ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN NEAR 80
DEGREES WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG
THE FLORIDA REEF ARE SEEING WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT OUT AT PULASKI
SHOAL...CLOSER TO A SURFACE COL...BUT REMAIN MODERATE AND EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ADJOINING THE INHABITED KEYS
ISLAND CHAIN...AS WELL AS IN FLORIDA BAY AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT IN
THE GULF WATERS NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST

.SHORT TERM...OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AS THE
SURFACE FRONT TRUDGES SOUTHEAST SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THE
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN
MORE...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTH FLOW
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT MAY BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF
KEY WEST. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE A
CONTINUATION OF MOISTENING IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT...WITH PWAT REACHING TO BETWEEN ONE AND ONE AND A HALF AND
ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...A COLLAPSE IN THE GRADIENT AND
LITTLE FORCING WILL ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO
INDICATED IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS AS WELL. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE PUBLIC FORECAST ON THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT...BREEZES WILL COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS. BREEZES NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND BECOMING GENTLE WHILE VEERING AROUND TO BETWEEN
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTL ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING
10 TO 12 KNOTS FROM 110 DEGREES WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS WILL BECOME 160 DEGREES AND DECREASE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS BY
12Z...THEN BECOME 230-260 DEGREES AT 5 TO 9 KNOTS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KMTH IN A CLOUDLINE DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS AT FL020-025 AND FL050-060
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SCA FOR GMZ052-055&GMZ072-075 THRU 10Z.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE....................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS................FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR........DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 030142 CCA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED DATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
945 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM...OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DEPICT MANY COLD CORE UPPER LOWS AND TROUGHS INTERSPERSED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. A STRONG WESTERLY
MIDDLE AND UPPER JETSTREAM CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AVERAGING 75 TO 100 KNOTS AT 250
MB...DECELERATING AROUND 50 KNOTS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH LATEST AVAILABLE LAND AND
MARINE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING  SOUTHWEST TO OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST
FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. THE FLORIDA
KEYS ARE NEAR THE WESTERN MOST EDGE OF A DEPARTING ATLANTIC SURFACE
RIDGE. AS SUCH...THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO ONLY ABOUT 950 MB
BECOMING SOUTH ABOVE THAT UP TO 700...WITH A MOISTENING LOWER TO MID
TROPOSPHERE INDICATED BY PWAT AT AROUND 1.49 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. KEY WEST RADAR DETECTS LIGHT
ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OUTER FLORIDA STRAITS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHWARDS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS REMAIN NEAR 80
DEGREES WITH MUGGY DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG
THE FLORIDA REEF ARE SEEING WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT OUT AT PULASKI
SHOAL...CLOSER TO A SURFACE COL...BUT REMAIN MODERATE AND EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ADJOINING THE INHABITED KEYS
ISLAND CHAIN...AS WELL AS IN FLORIDA BAY AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT IN
THE GULF WATERS NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST

.SHORT TERM...OVERNIGHT...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AS THE
SURFACE FRONT TRUDGES SOUTHEAST SLOWLY ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THE
SURFACE RIDGING TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHEAST WILL WEAKEN
MORE...RESULTING IN LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTH FLOW
ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT MAY BE VARIABLE ACROSS THE WATERS WEST OF
KEY WEST. ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE A
CONTINUATION OF MOISTENING IN THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE
OVERNIGHT...WITH PWAT REACHING TO BETWEEN ONE AND ONE AND A HALF AND
ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...A COLLAPSE IN THE GRADIENT AND
LITTLE FORCING WILL ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS IS ALSO
INDICATED IN THE MESOSCALE MODELS AS WELL. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
THE PUBLIC FORECAST ON THIS CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT...BREEZES WILL COME DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS. BREEZES NEAR 15 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND BECOMING GENTLE WHILE VEERING AROUND TO BETWEEN
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON INTL ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING
10 TO 12 KNOTS FROM 110 DEGREES WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS WILL BECOME 160 DEGREES AND DECREASE TO AROUND 8 KNOTS BY
12Z...THEN BECOME 230-260 DEGREES AT 5 TO 9 KNOTS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.
MVFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT KMTH IN A CLOUDLINE DURING TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS AT FL020-025 AND FL050-060
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SCA FOR GMZ052-055&GMZ072-075 THRU 10Z.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE....................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS................FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR........DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMFL 030136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
936 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WERE MADE EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN LAKE REGION. THERE ARE
STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BUT RECENTLY LIGHTNING
HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...

THERE IS LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY IN
THE LAKE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT...WITH REGIONAL WINDS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER SOME OF THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS COULD HAVE A
SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE AROUND 14Z TUESDAY WHILE THE MORE
INLAND TERMINALS LIKE KTMB AND KMIA COULD EXPERIENCE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 18Z. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
EASTERN PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
ASSIGN VCTS ALTHOUGH VCSH ASSIGNED ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

.POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
.COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THERE WILL BE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS MOVING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH 500 MB TEMPS BEING
IN THE -10C TO -11C RANGE. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE
WESTER COAST METRO AREAS. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES     FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA             90             91 - 1896
FLL             89             91 - 1964
PBI             89             91 - 1986

THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
BRINGING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND KEEPING THE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IN PLACE.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WITH REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS REMAINING IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THIS WEEK. THE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW
5 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...EXCEPT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS WHERE THE SEAS BUILD TO 6 FEET ON THURSDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 35
PERCENT LATE THIS WEEK OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THE DISPERSION INDEX WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO 75
TO 80 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  89  73  88 /  20  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  75  88 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            76  90  74  89 /  20  40  30  60
NAPLES           72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....




000
FXUS62 KMFL 030136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
936 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WERE MADE EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR
THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN LAKE REGION. THERE ARE
STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THAT AREA BUT RECENTLY LIGHTNING
HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 800 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

AVIATION...

THERE IS LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY IN
THE LAKE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT...WITH REGIONAL WINDS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER SOME OF THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS COULD HAVE A
SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE AROUND 14Z TUESDAY WHILE THE MORE
INLAND TERMINALS LIKE KTMB AND KMIA COULD EXPERIENCE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 18Z. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
EASTERN PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
ASSIGN VCTS ALTHOUGH VCSH ASSIGNED ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

.POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
.COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THERE WILL BE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS MOVING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH 500 MB TEMPS BEING
IN THE -10C TO -11C RANGE. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE
WESTER COAST METRO AREAS. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES     FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA             90             91 - 1896
FLL             89             91 - 1964
PBI             89             91 - 1986

THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
BRINGING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND KEEPING THE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IN PLACE.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WITH REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS REMAINING IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THIS WEEK. THE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW
5 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...EXCEPT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS WHERE THE SEAS BUILD TO 6 FEET ON THURSDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 35
PERCENT LATE THIS WEEK OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THE DISPERSION INDEX WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO 75
TO 80 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  89  73  88 /  20  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  75  88 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            76  90  74  89 /  20  40  30  60
NAPLES           72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 030040
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
840 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...SEABREEZE MERGER OVER THE INTERIOR HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AND DIE BY MIDNIGHT
AS SHOWERS REACH THE COAST. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS UPPER TROUGH AND
COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS THIS EVENING AT VQQ...JAX...CRG...SGJ AND SSI AS
SCATTERED STORMS FROM SEABREEZE MERGER MOVE TO THE EAST COAST
THROUGH 03Z. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS UNTIL LATE
TONIGHT. SW FLOW MAY RESULT IN STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE 09Z-14Z. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN AT
TAF SITES AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME SW TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER
THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED AS WIND SPEEDS INCREASE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  84  64  80 /  30  70  50  10
SSI  72  83  68  81 /  30  60  50  20
JAX  70  87  68  83 /  20  50  50  50
SGJ  71  86  70  83 /  20  40  40  60
GNV  69  86  68  83 /  10  40  50  60
OCF  69  85  69  83 /  10  40  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/SANDRIK/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KTBW 030038
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
838 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
EARLY EVENING KTBW RADAR RETURNS ARE SHOWING A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS LINED UP ALONG THE SPINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDED. HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH
(HRRR) AND OTHER HIGH RES/SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THESE
STORMS DRIFTING EAST AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED LINGERING CELLS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z.

AFTER THE CONVECTION WINDS DOWN...THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK FOR
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...GENERALLY BOTTOMING OUT
AROUND 70 OVER THE INTERIOR...AND IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST. TUESDAY WILL IN MANY WAYS SETUP SIMILAR TO
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A STRONGER WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSH...KEEPING THE STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA.

NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR. AS THESE STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
09-10Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THESE LOW CEILINGS LIFT
OUT...THE ONLY THREAT OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TUESDAY EVENING AND CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS FILLING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...LIKELY CAUSING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
FMY  72  89  73  86 /  10  20  20  70
GIF  71  88  70  81 /  40  40  30  70
SRQ  73  83  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
BKV  68  85  68  81 /  10  20  50  70
SPG  75  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...18/FLEMING
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 030000
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...

THERE IS LINGERING CONVECTION EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MAINLY IN
THE LAKE REGION WITH OCCASIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL START TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TONIGHT...WITH REGIONAL WINDS
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER SOME OF THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS COULD HAVE A
SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZE AROUND 14Z TUESDAY WHILE THE MORE
INLAND TERMINALS LIKE KTMB AND KMIA COULD EXPERIENCE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 18Z. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
EASTERN PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
ASSIGN VCTS ALTHOUGH VCSH ASSIGNED ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

..POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
..COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THERE WILL BE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS MOVING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH 500 MB TEMPS BEING
IN THE -10C TO -11C RANGE. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE
WESTER COAST METRO AREAS. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES     FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA             90             91 - 1896
FLL             89             91 - 1964
PBI             89             91 - 1986

THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
BRINGING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND KEEPING THE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IN PLACE.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WITH REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS REMAINING IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THIS WEEK. THE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW
5 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...EXCEPT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS WHERE THE SEAS BUILD TO 6 FEET ON THURSDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 35
PERCENT LATE THIS WEEK OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THE DISPERSION INDEX WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO 75
TO 80 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  89  73  88 /  20  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  75  88 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            76  90  74  89 /  20  40  30  60
NAPLES           72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 022340
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
740 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS OVER THE
INTERIOR. AS THESE STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
09-10Z...AND CONTINUE THROUGH A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THESE LOW CEILINGS LIFT
OUT...THE ONLY THREAT OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
FMY  72  89  73  86 /  10  20  20  70
GIF  71  88  70  81 /  40  40  30  70
SRQ  73  83  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
BKV  68  85  68  81 /  10  20  50  70
SPG  75  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18/FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTAE 022339
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
739 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

Isolated TSRA are possible overnight, but PoPs are too low for
their mention in this TAF package. NWP guidance agreement is
rather high in developing widespread MVFR cigs/Vis late tonight,
with a good chance of several sites dropping to IFR levels at
times. Cigs/Vis will improve mid to late morning. Numerous TSRA
will develop by Tuesday afternoon as a cold front moves slowly
southeast across the region.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [407 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Upper trough and associated cold front will continue to slowly
approach the local area through the rest of the afternoon and into
the evening. With a moist and unstable atmosphere in place ahead of
the front, scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through
the afternoon. The upper level energy will help focus the activity
across northern and western portions of the area, while the
seabreeze will focus activity in the eastern Big Bend. While the
activity should diminish after sunset, low PoPs will be maintained
overnight as the surface front moves ever closer.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

An east-west oriented area of +PV that stretches from the Great
Lakes region, through the Plains and and Pacific Northwest, will
begin to move southeast as another +PV anomaly dives south through
the Northern Plains tonight. At the surface, the associated cold
front currently draped through the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys will enter the Tri-State late Tuesday afternoon.
While convection is expected tomorrow along the cold front, storms
will be possible earlier in the day as well as an increasingly
diffluent upper level pattern provides some extra support to what
will likely be a weak seabreeze due to high cloudiness. Further,
moderately steep lapse rates are expected to advect through the
region during the first half of the day tomorrow, sourced from the
EML over Mexico. This will result in the potential for small to
marginally severe hail through the first half of the day. Through
the day, plenty of instability will couple with marginal deep
layer shear to also warrant the potential for gusty to damaging
winds. The damaging wind threat may increase later in the day as
deep layer shear increases a bit. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will come to an end across all but the southeast Big Bend by dawn
on Wednesday, and everywhere by the afternoon. Wednesday will
feature much cooler afternoon temperatures than recent days, with
upper 70s west of the Flint and Apalachicola rives, and highs
around 80 elsewhere. Lows Wednesday night are expected to fall
into the low 60s across north Florida, and the upper 50s across
Alabama and Georgia.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The week will end with slightly below seasonal temperatures both
day and night as a large upper trough remains over the eastern
third of the country. Through the weekend, ridging will build back
in with temperatures climbing to seasonal normals or slightly
above. Rain is not expected Thursday through Monday.


.MARINE...

Light southwesterly flow will become northwesterly around
Cautionary levels behind a front Wednesday through Thursday night.
Thereafter, light winds and low seas are expected to prevail
through the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

After a rainy Tuesday, much drier and slightly cooler air will move
into the region behind a cold front Wednesday. Stronger winds and
deep mixing may drive daytime dispersion values up to 75 Wednesday
afternoon. Afternoon RH values may reach locally critical thresholds
later this week.


.HYDROLOGY...

Expected rainfall amounts around an inch through Tuesday are not
expected to aggravate current river levels. No rain is expected
from midweek through early next week. Thus, there are no
hydrology concerns for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  83  66  80  60 /  20  70  30  10  10
Panama City   72  79  67  77  65 /  30  60  30  10   0
Dothan        68  80  60  76  57 /  40  80  30  10  10
Albany        68  82  63  77  57 /  40  80  50  10  10
Valdosta      69  85  66  81  58 /  20  60  50  20  10
Cross City    68  86  70  80  62 /  20  20  40  40   0
Apalachicola  72  79  69  78  66 /  20  50  40  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTAE 022007
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Upper trough and associated cold front will continue to slowly
approach the local area through the rest of the afternoon and into
the evening. With a moist and unstable atmosphere in place ahead of
the front, scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through
the afternoon. The upper level energy will help focus the activity
across northern and western portions of the area, while the
seabreeze will focus activity in the eastern Big Bend. While the
activity should diminish after sunset, low PoPs will be maintained
overnight as the surface front moves ever closer.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

An east-west oriented area of +PV that stretches from the Great
Lakes region, through the Plains and and Pacific Northwest, will
begin to move southeast as another +PV anomaly dives south through
the Northern Plains tonight. At the surface, the associated cold
front currently draped through the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys will enter the Tri-State late Tuesday afternoon.
While convection is expected tomorrow along the cold front, storms
will be possible earlier in the day as well as an increasingly
diffluent upper level pattern provides some extra support to what
will likely be a weak seabreeze due to high cloudiness. Further,
moderately steep lapse rates are expected to advect through the
region during the first half of the day tomorrow, sourced from the
EML over Mexico. This will result in the potential for small to
marginally severe hail through the first half of the day. Through
the day, plenty of instability will couple with marginal deep
layer shear to also warrant the potential for gusty to damaging
winds. The damaging wind threat may increase later in the day as
deep layer shear increases a bit. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will come to an end across all but the southeast Big Bend by dawn
on Wednesday, and everywhere by the afternoon. Wednesday will
feature much cooler afternoon temperatures than recent days, with
upper 70s west of the Flint and Apalachicola rives, and highs
around 80 elsewhere. Lows Wednesday night are expected to fall
into the low 60s across north Florida, and the upper 50s across
Alabama and Georgia.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The week will end with slightly below seasonal temperatures both
day and night as a large upper trough remains over the eastern
third of the country. Through the weekend, ridging will build back
in with temperatures climbing to seasonal normals or slightly
above. Rain is not expected Thursday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...

Scattered thunderstorms may impact the terminals this afternoon
into the early evening, with KTLH having the lowest probability
for thunder. IFR cigs are possible at all terminals overnight,
with MVFR conditions returning by mid-morning. More widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Light southwesterly flow will become northwesterly around
Cautionary levels behind a front Wednesday through Thursday night.
Thereafter, light winds and low seas are expected to prevail
through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

After a rainy Tuesday, much drier and slightly cooler air will move
into the region behind a cold front Wednesday. Stronger winds and
deep mixing may drive daytime dispersion values up to 75 Wednesday
afternoon. Afternoon RH values may reach locally critical thresholds
later this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Expected rainfall amounts around an inch through Tuesday are not
expected to aggravate current river levels. No rain is expected
from midweek through early next week. Thus, there are no
hydrology concerns for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  83  66  80  60 /  20  70  30  10  10
Panama City   72  79  67  77  65 /  30  60  30  10   0
Dothan        68  80  60  76  57 /  40  80  30  10  10
Albany        68  82  63  77  57 /  40  80  50  10  10
Valdosta      69  85  66  81  58 /  20  60  50  20  10
Cross City    68  86  70  80  62 /  20  20  40  40   0
Apalachicola  72  79  69  78  66 /  20  50  40  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTAE 022007
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Upper trough and associated cold front will continue to slowly
approach the local area through the rest of the afternoon and into
the evening. With a moist and unstable atmosphere in place ahead of
the front, scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop through
the afternoon. The upper level energy will help focus the activity
across northern and western portions of the area, while the
seabreeze will focus activity in the eastern Big Bend. While the
activity should diminish after sunset, low PoPs will be maintained
overnight as the surface front moves ever closer.


.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

An east-west oriented area of +PV that stretches from the Great
Lakes region, through the Plains and and Pacific Northwest, will
begin to move southeast as another +PV anomaly dives south through
the Northern Plains tonight. At the surface, the associated cold
front currently draped through the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys will enter the Tri-State late Tuesday afternoon.
While convection is expected tomorrow along the cold front, storms
will be possible earlier in the day as well as an increasingly
diffluent upper level pattern provides some extra support to what
will likely be a weak seabreeze due to high cloudiness. Further,
moderately steep lapse rates are expected to advect through the
region during the first half of the day tomorrow, sourced from the
EML over Mexico. This will result in the potential for small to
marginally severe hail through the first half of the day. Through
the day, plenty of instability will couple with marginal deep
layer shear to also warrant the potential for gusty to damaging
winds. The damaging wind threat may increase later in the day as
deep layer shear increases a bit. Shower and thunderstorm activity
will come to an end across all but the southeast Big Bend by dawn
on Wednesday, and everywhere by the afternoon. Wednesday will
feature much cooler afternoon temperatures than recent days, with
upper 70s west of the Flint and Apalachicola rives, and highs
around 80 elsewhere. Lows Wednesday night are expected to fall
into the low 60s across north Florida, and the upper 50s across
Alabama and Georgia.


.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The week will end with slightly below seasonal temperatures both
day and night as a large upper trough remains over the eastern
third of the country. Through the weekend, ridging will build back
in with temperatures climbing to seasonal normals or slightly
above. Rain is not expected Thursday through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday]...

Scattered thunderstorms may impact the terminals this afternoon
into the early evening, with KTLH having the lowest probability
for thunder. IFR cigs are possible at all terminals overnight,
with MVFR conditions returning by mid-morning. More widespread
showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

Light southwesterly flow will become northwesterly around
Cautionary levels behind a front Wednesday through Thursday night.
Thereafter, light winds and low seas are expected to prevail
through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

After a rainy Tuesday, much drier and slightly cooler air will move
into the region behind a cold front Wednesday. Stronger winds and
deep mixing may drive daytime dispersion values up to 75 Wednesday
afternoon. Afternoon RH values may reach locally critical thresholds
later this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Expected rainfall amounts around an inch through Tuesday are not
expected to aggravate current river levels. No rain is expected
from midweek through early next week. Thus, there are no
hydrology concerns for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  83  66  80  60 /  20  70  30  10  10
Panama City   72  79  67  77  65 /  30  60  30  10   0
Dothan        68  80  60  76  57 /  40  80  30  10  10
Albany        68  82  63  77  57 /  40  80  50  10  10
Valdosta      69  85  66  81  58 /  20  60  50  20  10
Cross City    68  86  70  80  62 /  20  20  40  40   0
Apalachicola  72  79  69  78  66 /  20  50  40  20   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KMLB 022004
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
404 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT/TONIGHT...
H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL GENERATE A DEEP S/SE
FLOW ACRS THE PENINSULA...PULLING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE UP
FROM S FL. RAP40 ANALYSIS SHOWS THE H100-H70 90PCT ISOHUME
ENCROACHING ON THE SE FL COAST WITH MOST OF THE EAST CENTRAL
PENINSULA BTWN 70-80PCT. H70 TEMPS BTWN 7-8C...H50 TEMPS ARND
-10C...YIELDING LAPSE RATE BTWN 6.5-7.0C/KM THRU THE LYR.

ISOLD SHRAS/TSRAS ALONG BOTH THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE
STRUGGLING MAINTAIN THEMSELVES...LARGELY DUE TO LIMITED MID/UPR LVL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT. THIS WILL ALLOW NEAR MAX HEATING TO OCCUR OVER THE
INTERIOR PRIOR TO THE SEABREEZE MERGER...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD
SUNSET. W/SW FLOW THRU THE H85-H30 STEERING LYR WILL GENERATE BLOW
BACK PRECIP TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO COASTS. THE COOL H50 TEMPS
TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR 50MPH WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WITH
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. STEADY ONSHORE FLOW NOT EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE...RESULTING IN MIN TEMP IN THE U60S/L70...5-10F ABV AVG.

TUE...
TRANSITION TO A MORE ACTIVE WX PATTERN AS AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
PRESSES THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE FL STRAITS. INCREASING S/SW FLOW
WILL RESULT...PULLING INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL FL
WHILE STEADILY ERODING THE A MID LVL CAP THERMAL CAP. THIS COMBO
WILL ALLOW SCT SHRAS/TSRAS TO DVLP ACRS THE CWA BY MID AFTERNOON.
HIGHER POPS ACRS CENTRAL AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A
"MARGINAL" SVR WX THREAT. STEADY SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL GENERATE ABV
AVG TEMPS... TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY INCREASING CLOUD/PRECIP COVERAGE.
AFTN MAXES IN THE M/U80S ALONG THE COAST...U80S/L90S INTERIOR.

TUE NIGHT...
EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BEFORE MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH LATE
EVENING AS MID LVL SW FLOW INCREASES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SHORT RANGE
GUID INDICATES LEADING EDGE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PSBL STORMS
SHOULD REACH NRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 5AM WITH MAIN
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

WED-WED NIGHT...
DIGGING S/W TROUGH WITHIN THE ERN CONUS L/W TROUGH WILL DRIVE
STRONGER CONVECTION ON WED...INITIALLY ACROSS NRN ZONES IN THE
MORNING AND THEN MOVING SE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS E CENTRAL
FL IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG WINDS AND
POSSIBLE HAIL THE MAIN THUNDERSTORMS HAZARDS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO 1-2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS STORMS TRAIN EASTWARD AS THE WHOLE CONVECTIVE LINE
TRANSITIONS SE THROUGH THE DAY. WILL INCREASE POPS TO 70 PCT RANGE
CENTRAL/NRN SECTIONS. HIGHS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPITATION FOR NRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER 80S...TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR WED NIGHT...EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN ZONES BEFORE PUSHING SE IN THE LATE EVENING.
NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING CLEARING AND COOLER TEMPS WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATE WEEK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE COOL EVENINGS THU
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO
LOWER 60S AND HIGHS RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 80S. NO RAIN IS
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. EXTENDED...BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE MS
VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH A DRY
FORECAST INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE WITH SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES
FROM THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 02/18Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 03/02Z...S/SE 7-12KTS...OCNL SFC G18-22KTS S OF
KMLB. BTWN 03/02Z-03/05Z...BCMG S/SW 4-8KTS. AFT 03/14Z...S/SW 7-
11KTS...BCMG S/SE 8-12KTS S OF KMLB.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 02/21Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS DVLPG ON
THE ECSB MVG N ARND 10KTS. BTWN 02/21Z-02/24Z...INTERIOR SITES SCT
IFR TSRAS/SLGT CHC LIFR +TSRAS WITH SFC G35KTS MVG N 10-15KTS...
COASTAL SITES SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS...MVG N ARND 10KTS. BTWN 03/00Z-
03/04Z...N OF KMLB-KISM CHC IFR TSRAS/SLGT CHC LIFR +TSRA WITH SFC
G35KTS. AFT 03/15Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...MARGINAL CONDS AS A HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
MAINTAINS A GENTLE TO MODERATE...OCNL FRESH...S/SE BREEZE ACRS THE
LCL ATLC. SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE. WAVE PDS OPENING
UP TO 8-9SEC. CHC OF TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET TOWARD
SUNSET CONTG INTO LATE EVNG. NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION SET FOR TUE
AFTN WITH SCT TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE.

WED-SAT...HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
EXPECTED WED BEFORE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT.
INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS WED WILL BECOME NW WED NIGHT AND REACH
SCEC LEVELS. A REINFORCING NW SURGE IS EXPECTED THU NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED OFFSHORE. NW-N WINDS FRIDAY
WILL WEAKEN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING SEAS FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND DRY WEATHER BEYOND WED NIGHT EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WX...
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THRU MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH ON TUE...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WED.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PRECLUDE ANY CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. SCT SHRAS/TSRAS TUE AND NMRS SHRAS/TSRAS WED WILL MITIGATE
DRY FUEL CONCERNS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  88  70  82 /  40  50  30  70
MCO  70  90  71  82 /  40  40  20  70
MLB  69  87  70  82 /  30  50  20  70
VRB  68  88  70  85 /  30  50  30  70
LEE  70  89  72  82 /  40  40  30  70
SFB  70  89  73  82 /  40  40  30  70
ORL  70  90  72  82 /  40  40  30  70
FPR  69  88  69  86 /  30  40  30  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMFL 021946
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THERE WILL BE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS MOVING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH 500 MB TEMPS BEING
IN THE -10C TO -11C RANGE. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE
WESTER COAST METRO AREAS. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES     FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA             90             91 - 1896
FLL             89             91 - 1964
PBI             89             91 - 1986


THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
BRINGING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND KEEPING THE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WITH REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS REMAINING IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THIS WEEK. THE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW
5 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...EXCEPT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS WHERE THE SEAS BUILD TO 6 FEET ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 35
PERCENT LATE THIS WEEK OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THE DISPERSION INDEX WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO 75
TO 80 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  89  73  88 /  20  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  75  88 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            76  90  74  89 /  20  40  30  60
NAPLES           72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 021946
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA
COAST AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PUSHING A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEPER MOISTURE
TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY BEFORE
BECOMING NUMEROUS ON THURSDAY.

SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS THERE WILL BE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET OF
40 TO 50 KNOTS MOVING OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH 500 MB TEMPS BEING
IN THE -10C TO -11C RANGE. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE
WESTER COAST METRO AREAS. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS ON TUESDAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES     FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA             90             91 - 1896
FLL             89             91 - 1964
PBI             89             91 - 1986


THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS
WEEK...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FROM
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
BRINGING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FROM THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE
WEST THIS WEEKEND KEEPING THE DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IN PLACE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WITH REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS REMAINING IN THE
10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THE WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A
NORTHWEST DIRECTION LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE THIS WEEK. THE SEAS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW
5 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK...EXCEPT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS WHERE THE SEAS BUILD TO 6 FEET ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35
PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 35
PERCENT LATE THIS WEEK OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THE DISPERSION INDEX WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TO 75
TO 80 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  89  73  88 /  20  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  75  88 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            76  90  74  89 /  20  40  30  60
NAPLES           72  87  73  85 /  10  20  20  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KTBW 021936
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
336 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS HIGHLIGHTING A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OHIO
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA...WITH FLORIDA RESIDING IN A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO POP UP...AND CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN MOSTLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. TUESDAY WILL SHAPE UP SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE INLAND...KEEPING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AWAY FROM THE
COAST. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...TO AROUND 90 OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY)...
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE CATALYST FOR GIVING THIS FRONT THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO CLEAR OUT
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY AND WET
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN ASCENT AND INCREASE SHEAR ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH...FORECAST AROUND
1000 J/KG OR SO BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SEE THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE ON WEDNESDAY`S SEVERE THREAT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER...DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
FILTER IN TO THE PENINSULA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NO RAIN AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MID/UPPER 50S...LOW/MID 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN MODERATING LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE JUST STARTING TO POP UP...AND COULD CAUSE REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR BRIEF PERIODS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION INCREASES...MOSTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND INTERIOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STARTING AROUND 09Z-10Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TUESDAY EVENING AND CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS FILLING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...LIKELY CAUSING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL USHER
IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PERCENTAGES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY...AND LOW
30S AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ERC VALUES AND WIND
SPEEDS COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...AND
LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH COULD CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN COUNTIES WHERE ERC VALUES RISE HIGH ENOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
FMY  72  89  73  86 /  10  20  20  70
GIF  71  88  70  81 /  40  40  30  70
SRQ  73  83  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
BKV  68  85  68  81 /  10  20  50  70
SPG  75  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING/JILLSON
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 021936
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
336 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS HIGHLIGHTING A PLUME OF
MOISTURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OHIO
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA...WITH FLORIDA RESIDING IN A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO POP UP...AND CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO FILL IN MOSTLY ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. TUESDAY WILL SHAPE UP SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT
THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE INLAND...KEEPING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES AWAY FROM THE
COAST. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY...WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST...TO AROUND 90 OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR
ZONES.

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY)...
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE
SAME TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE CATALYST FOR GIVING THIS FRONT THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO CLEAR OUT
OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDY AND WET
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL AID IN ASCENT AND INCREASE SHEAR ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. MUCAPE VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH...FORECAST AROUND
1000 J/KG OR SO BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ORGANIZED SVR TSTM
POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREATS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SEE THE LATEST OUTLOOKS FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE ON WEDNESDAY`S SEVERE THREAT.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER...DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
FILTER IN TO THE PENINSULA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NO RAIN AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MID/UPPER 50S...LOW/MID 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN MODERATING LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE JUST STARTING TO POP UP...AND COULD CAUSE REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR BRIEF PERIODS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION INCREASES...MOSTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND INTERIOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STARTING AROUND 09Z-10Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS BELOW CAUTIONARY
LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TUESDAY EVENING AND CROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS FILLING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...LIKELY CAUSING SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
AT TIMES. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL USHER
IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS...WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
PERCENTAGES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S THURSDAY...AND LOW
30S AND UPPER 20S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ERC VALUES AND WIND
SPEEDS COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY...AND
LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RH COULD CAUSE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN COUNTIES WHERE ERC VALUES RISE HIGH ENOUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
FMY  72  89  73  86 /  10  20  20  70
GIF  71  88  70  81 /  40  40  30  70
SRQ  73  83  73  81 /  10  10  40  70
BKV  68  85  68  81 /  10  20  50  70
SPG  75  85  73  81 /  10  10  40  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLEMING/JILLSON
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN




000
FXUS62 KJAX 021904
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
304 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT-TUESDAY/...

TONIGHT...ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. RESPECTIVE EAST COAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MERGERS
ARE ANTICIPATED THIS LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING NEAR THE
SR301 CORRIDOR. THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD
TOWARD THE COAST THIS EARLY EVENING THEN MIGRATE OFFSHORE. THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...WANING
FURTHER IN AREAL COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS MID TO
LATE EVENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DUE TO S-SW FLOW AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SOME PATCHY SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.

.TUESDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TRACK
EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC AS MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS AIRMASS
BEGINS TO PRIME WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING BETWEEN
1.60 AND 1.80 INCHES. DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SPEED SHEAR
INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SUFFICIENT CAPES FOR A FEW
STORMS BECOME STRONG TO PERHAPS ONE TO TWO BECOMING SEVERE. SPC
CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR AREA IN MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WITH
A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY HAVING GUSTY WINDS OF 40-60 MPH. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.SHORT TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR PRE-FRONTAL
AND FRONTAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THIS
PERIOD...BUT THEY ARE ALSO SHOWING A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF ENERGY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SPLITTING NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE NORTH FLORIDA
REGION. NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS ONGOING
TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS SE GA WILL FADE AFTER SUNSET AND THE LOSS
OF HEATING AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS CLOSE TO THE FL/GA
BORDER TOWARDS MORNING AND ENERGY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED
NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS. MODELS THEN SHOWING NEXT UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GOMEX EARLY WED AND REIGNITING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE
OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT WITH
THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT HEATING EXPECT MOST OF THE STRONGER TO
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TO END UP ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY HEADS IN THAT DIRECTION DURING PEAK HEATING. SO CONFIDENCE
IN ENTIRE SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT THIS TIME AND STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO ONE INCH ACROSS SE GA
AND CLOSER TO ONE HALF INCH ACROSS NE FL DUE TO POSSIBLE SPLIT
SCENARIO. MILD/HUMID OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED
TUE NIGHT AND WHILE COOLER MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH INCREASED WEST WINDS TO 15-25
MPH STILL BELIEVE THEY COULD REACH INTO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S WITH
SUCH A MILD START AND SOME SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

WED NIGHT/THURSDAY...AS FRONT CLEARS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
EXPECTING CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
VALUES IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS SE GA AND AROUND 80 DEGREES
ACROSS NE FL. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM /THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF PASSES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE WEEKEND AND LINGERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
LOWS IN THE 40S/50S AND HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY WITH SOME
NEAR RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
IF THE COOLER ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE VERIFIES. OVER THE WEEKEND
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY AND
BACK UP TO CLIMO VALUES IN THE MIDDLE 80S SUNDAY AND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOME
TERMINALS THIS EARLY EVENING AS SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY
MOVE OVER A TERMINAL SITE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
OTHERWISE. INLAND TERMINALS MAY HAVE PATCHY FOG BRIEFLY REDUCING
VSBYS INTO THE 3-5 NM RANGE FROM 09Z-13Z. NOT CONFIDENT IN THIS
SCENARIO IF THERE ARE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SSW WINDS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN ENCROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY THEN PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. BREEZY
NW FLOW EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
LOCATED WELL W AND NW OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEK. MAIN
SHORT TERM HAZARD FOR MARINERS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTN HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED DISPERSION VALUES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  84  64  80 /  40  70  50  10
SSI  72  83  68  81 /  40  60  50  20
JAX  70  87  68  83 /  30  50  50  50
SGJ  71  86  70  83 /  30  40  40  60
GNV  69  86  68  83 /  20  40  50  60
OCF  69  85  69  83 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/HESS




000
FXUS62 KKEY 021854
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
254 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADJUSTED WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SEVERAL PERIODS.

CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE
PERSISTED ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT A
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEED HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME ZONES DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS. ON OCCASION...SHORT-LIVED...LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED
UP. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY RAIN-FREE ACROSS MOST OF
THE SERVICE AREA TODAY. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEEP RIDGING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE STILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- CUBAN SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY
WILL EMERGE NORTHWARD OVER THE STRAITS. HOWEVER...WEAKENING STEERING
FLOW AND DRY/STABLE AIR OVER SHOULD LIMIT NORTHWARD MIGRATION AND
SECOND-GENERATION CELLS. STILL...SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS
DECKS MAY DEVELOP AND REACH THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. WEATHER PREDICTION
MODEL TRENDS POINT TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN A FAST...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
EVOLUTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE-SEASON COLD/COOL FRONT
REACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY PRECEDED BY A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD FILTER INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR A FEW DAYS...BEFORE VEERING LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
LEAD TO QUICK AIR MASS MODIFICATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...LIGHTER BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK...LATE-SEASON FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. BREEZES ARE FORECAST
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND FRESHEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 03/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A FEW SHOWERS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VICINITY OF EACH TERMINAL. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  86  77  83 / 20 20 30 50
MARATHON  79  88  77  85 / 20 20 30 50
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 021854
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
254 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ADJUSTED WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS SEVERAL PERIODS.

CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE
PERSISTED ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TODAY...BUT A
DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEED HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME ZONES DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS. ON OCCASION...SHORT-LIVED...LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED
UP. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PRIMARILY RAIN-FREE ACROSS MOST OF
THE SERVICE AREA TODAY. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID
80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. DEEP RIDGING AND
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE STILL PREVAIL OVER THE REGION.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- CUBAN SEA-BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY
WILL EMERGE NORTHWARD OVER THE STRAITS. HOWEVER...WEAKENING STEERING
FLOW AND DRY/STABLE AIR OVER SHOULD LIMIT NORTHWARD MIGRATION AND
SECOND-GENERATION CELLS. STILL...SOME STRATOCUMULUS AND ALTOCUMULUS
DECKS MAY DEVELOP AND REACH THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. WEATHER PREDICTION
MODEL TRENDS POINT TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN A FAST...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DURING THE WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS
EVOLUTION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE-SEASON COLD/COOL FRONT
REACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY PRECEDED BY A
PERIOD OF CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD FILTER INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS FOR A FEW DAYS...BEFORE VEERING LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES
LEAD TO QUICK AIR MASS MODIFICATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TONIGHT. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...LIGHTER BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK...LATE-SEASON FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. BREEZES ARE FORECAST
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND FRESHEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 03/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A FEW SHOWERS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VICINITY OF EACH TERMINAL. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  79  86  77  83 / 20 20 30 50
MARATHON  79  88  77  85 / 20 20 30 50
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
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000
FXUS62 KTBW 021750
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
150 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE JUST STARTING TO POP UP...AND COULD CAUSE REDUCED
FLIGHT CATEGORIES FOR BRIEF PERIODS FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING AS CONVECTION INCREASES...MOSTLY OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND INTERIOR PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...STARTING AROUND 09Z-10Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH A COUPLE
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  85  73  80 /  10  30  40  60
FMY  73  88  73  85 /  10  30  20  60
GIF  71  87  70  81 /  40  50  20  60
SRQ  73  83  73  80 /  10  30  30  60
BKV  68  84  67  81 /  10  40  50  60
SPG  74  84  73  81 /  10  30  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...18/FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTAE 021738
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
138 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday] Scattered thunderstorms may
impact the terminals this afternoon into the early evening, with
KTLH having the lowest probability for thunder. IFR cigs are
possible at all terminals overnight, with MVFR conditions
returning by mid-morning. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the area on Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1010 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Slow-moving frontal boundary currently stretches from northwestern
Alabama into southern Mississippi. This boundary is forecast to
move slowly southeastward today as a shortwave aloft tracks
eastward through the southeastern states. Initially, most of the
convection should be well west of the forecast area. However, with
the approaching front and upper energy, along with a moist and
unstable boundary layer, scattered storms will likely develop this
afternoon and evening across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Guidance
also indicates that reasonably steep lapse rates will spread over
this area as well, raising the possibility of an isolated strong
to severe storm or two. Damaging winds and severe hail are the
mostly likely hazards from these storms, which may linger into
the evening hours before diminishing.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
As the mid level ridge continues to weaken and a weak mid level
shortwave moves into the Southeast on Tuesday, the chance of
showers and thunderstorms will increase considerably in the warm
and moist airmass. One concern for Tuesday`s convection is whether
the extensive mid and upper level cloudiness early Tuesday morning
will limit overall destabilization, and thus keep storm coverage
lower. The latest ECAM guidance would seem to suggest this
shouldn`t be a problem, showing PoPs in the 80-90 percent range.
Think that`s a little high at this time, but will increase PoPs
about 10 percent above the latest MOS blend, into the 60-70
percent range for Tuesday afternoon.

Deep layer wind shear increases to around 35-40 kts on Tuesday
afternoon, and model soundings show sufficient CAPE that a few
strong to marginally severe storms are possible. The primary
threat with these storms would be gusty winds.

On Wednesday, the overall pattern across the Eastern CONUS will
begin to amplify greatly as a large trough moves from the Great
Lakes into the Southeast. This will effectively sweep the deep
tropical moisture off to the east, as drier and cooler air moves
into the region. Rain chances will drop considerably Wednesday
morning/afternoon, with skies clearing late in the afternoon.

After a warm, muggy stretch of weather through Tuesday, high
temperatures on Wednesday will only be in the upper 70s to near
80.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
With the large trough across the Southeast through Friday, a
stretch of dry and somewhat cooler temperatures are expected into
the weekend. In fact, as surface high pressure settles over the
Southeast on Saturday, morning low temperatures could drop into
the upper 40s in a few locations - with highs only in the 70s
during the first half of the long term period.

By Sunday, heights begin to rise as shortwave ridging builds back
across the Southeast. The dry weather will continue, but
temperatures will begin to moderate with highs returning to the
mid to upper 80s by the end of the period.


.MARINE...
Modest south to southwesterly winds will persist through Tuesday
across the marine area. Winds will shift to offshore and increase
by midweek, when a period of cautionary conditions is possible
from Wednesday afternoon into Friday morning. High pressure will
build near the marine area Friday evening, resulting in lighter
winds and lower seas.


.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered storms on Monday should only bring minimal rainfall
to the northern portions of the area. On Tuesday, with increasing
forcing, and greater coverage of storms, model guidance suggests
some areas could see 1-2 inches of rain with the afternoon storms.
These amounts are unlikely to result in any flood concerns. Dry
conditions then return for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  84  64  81  58 /  20  70  30  10   0
Panama City   72  78  65  76  63 /  30  50  20  10   0
Dothan        68  80  58  77  57 /  40  50  10   0   0
Albany        68  82  59  78  56 /  40  60  20   0   0
Valdosta      69  84  63  79  56 /  20  70  40  10   0
Cross City    68  84  67  82  59 /  20  40  40  20  10
Apalachicola  72  80  66  78  63 /  20  50  30  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey




000
FXUS62 KTAE 021738
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
138 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Tuesday] Scattered thunderstorms may
impact the terminals this afternoon into the early evening, with
KTLH having the lowest probability for thunder. IFR cigs are
possible at all terminals overnight, with MVFR conditions
returning by mid-morning. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the area on Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1010 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Slow-moving frontal boundary currently stretches from northwestern
Alabama into southern Mississippi. This boundary is forecast to
move slowly southeastward today as a shortwave aloft tracks
eastward through the southeastern states. Initially, most of the
convection should be well west of the forecast area. However, with
the approaching front and upper energy, along with a moist and
unstable boundary layer, scattered storms will likely develop this
afternoon and evening across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Guidance
also indicates that reasonably steep lapse rates will spread over
this area as well, raising the possibility of an isolated strong
to severe storm or two. Damaging winds and severe hail are the
mostly likely hazards from these storms, which may linger into
the evening hours before diminishing.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
As the mid level ridge continues to weaken and a weak mid level
shortwave moves into the Southeast on Tuesday, the chance of
showers and thunderstorms will increase considerably in the warm
and moist airmass. One concern for Tuesday`s convection is whether
the extensive mid and upper level cloudiness early Tuesday morning
will limit overall destabilization, and thus keep storm coverage
lower. The latest ECAM guidance would seem to suggest this
shouldn`t be a problem, showing PoPs in the 80-90 percent range.
Think that`s a little high at this time, but will increase PoPs
about 10 percent above the latest MOS blend, into the 60-70
percent range for Tuesday afternoon.

Deep layer wind shear increases to around 35-40 kts on Tuesday
afternoon, and model soundings show sufficient CAPE that a few
strong to marginally severe storms are possible. The primary
threat with these storms would be gusty winds.

On Wednesday, the overall pattern across the Eastern CONUS will
begin to amplify greatly as a large trough moves from the Great
Lakes into the Southeast. This will effectively sweep the deep
tropical moisture off to the east, as drier and cooler air moves
into the region. Rain chances will drop considerably Wednesday
morning/afternoon, with skies clearing late in the afternoon.

After a warm, muggy stretch of weather through Tuesday, high
temperatures on Wednesday will only be in the upper 70s to near
80.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
With the large trough across the Southeast through Friday, a
stretch of dry and somewhat cooler temperatures are expected into
the weekend. In fact, as surface high pressure settles over the
Southeast on Saturday, morning low temperatures could drop into
the upper 40s in a few locations - with highs only in the 70s
during the first half of the long term period.

By Sunday, heights begin to rise as shortwave ridging builds back
across the Southeast. The dry weather will continue, but
temperatures will begin to moderate with highs returning to the
mid to upper 80s by the end of the period.


.MARINE...
Modest south to southwesterly winds will persist through Tuesday
across the marine area. Winds will shift to offshore and increase
by midweek, when a period of cautionary conditions is possible
from Wednesday afternoon into Friday morning. High pressure will
build near the marine area Friday evening, resulting in lighter
winds and lower seas.


.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered storms on Monday should only bring minimal rainfall
to the northern portions of the area. On Tuesday, with increasing
forcing, and greater coverage of storms, model guidance suggests
some areas could see 1-2 inches of rain with the afternoon storms.
These amounts are unlikely to result in any flood concerns. Dry
conditions then return for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  84  64  81  58 /  20  70  30  10   0
Panama City   72  78  65  76  63 /  30  50  20  10   0
Dothan        68  80  58  77  57 /  40  50  10   0   0
Albany        68  82  59  78  56 /  40  60  20   0   0
Valdosta      69  84  63  79  56 /  20  70  40  10   0
Cross City    68  84  67  82  59 /  20  40  40  20  10
Apalachicola  72  80  66  78  63 /  20  50  30  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Camp
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey




000
FXUS62 KMFL 021734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE PRIOR TO THE MAIN FORECAST PACKAGE TO INTRODUCE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. THE SOUTHEAST WIND IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MANY
STRONG RIP CURRENTS IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING,
AND TOMORROW WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE TAF PERIOD ENDS BEFORE THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE IN THE TAFS, WHICH IS IN THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD, AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY, WHICH WILL VEER THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, THEN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TOMORROW.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF
AND THE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. ALSO, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING, AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY TOMORROW NIGHT,
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO TOMORROW NIGHTS FORECAST FOR THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TUESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE IT SOUTH AND EASTWARD RETREAT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. PREVAILING FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY; LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP, BUT KEEP THE GULF BREEZE NEAR THE COLLIER
COUNTY COAST. FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE METRO AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY,
BUT DEEPER CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. STILL, A THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SIDE OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET STARTS
TO APPROACH THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH MUGGY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW 70S
INLAND/GULF COAST.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND EAST COAST WILL DRIVE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE STORMIEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE SEE A
COMBINATION OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD,
AND EXTENSIVE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH A 100-110KT JET NOSING INTO THE STATE AND
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 25-35KTS, A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TIMING REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE AS THE LOW MOVES,
THOUGH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONTS THROUGH FL FRI AND SAT, WITH MOST MODELS
KEEPING THEM DRY. MOSTLY THEY WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY POST
FRONTAL NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
MOST NOTABLY THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS.

MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE STATE. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
15KTS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
CROSSES THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT THURS MORNING BRINGS WINDS 15-20KTS,
OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS INTO LATE WEEK.

SEAS 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND 1 TO 3 IN THE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IF STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURS, MAY SEE SEAS UP TO 5 FT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND 6 FEET
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK,
MAINLY AFFECTING INLAND WATERWAYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN ALL WATERS TUES AND WED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  90  72  89 /  20  50  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  74  90 /  20  40  20  60
MIAMI            76  90  73  89 /  20  30  20  60
NAPLES           73  88  75  86 /  10  20  10  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 021734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE PRIOR TO THE MAIN FORECAST PACKAGE TO INTRODUCE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. THE SOUTHEAST WIND IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MANY
STRONG RIP CURRENTS IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING,
AND TOMORROW WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE TAF PERIOD ENDS BEFORE THE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE IN THE TAFS, WHICH IS IN THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD, AFTER 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY, WHICH WILL VEER THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, THEN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TOMORROW.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF
AND THE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. ALSO, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING, AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY TOMORROW NIGHT,
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO TOMORROW NIGHTS FORECAST FOR THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TUESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE IT SOUTH AND EASTWARD RETREAT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. PREVAILING FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY; LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP, BUT KEEP THE GULF BREEZE NEAR THE COLLIER
COUNTY COAST. FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE METRO AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY,
BUT DEEPER CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. STILL, A THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SIDE OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET STARTS
TO APPROACH THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH MUGGY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW 70S
INLAND/GULF COAST.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND EAST COAST WILL DRIVE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE STORMIEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE SEE A
COMBINATION OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD,
AND EXTENSIVE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH A 100-110KT JET NOSING INTO THE STATE AND
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 25-35KTS, A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TIMING REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE AS THE LOW MOVES,
THOUGH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONTS THROUGH FL FRI AND SAT, WITH MOST MODELS
KEEPING THEM DRY. MOSTLY THEY WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY POST
FRONTAL NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
MOST NOTABLY THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS.

MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE STATE. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
15KTS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
CROSSES THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT THURS MORNING BRINGS WINDS 15-20KTS,
OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS INTO LATE WEEK.

SEAS 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND 1 TO 3 IN THE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IF STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURS, MAY SEE SEAS UP TO 5 FT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND 6 FEET
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK,
MAINLY AFFECTING INLAND WATERWAYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN ALL WATERS TUES AND WED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  90  72  89 /  20  50  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  74  90 /  20  40  20  60
MIAMI            76  90  73  89 /  20  30  20  60
NAPLES           73  88  75  86 /  10  20  10  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 021423
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1023 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...

H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA WITH A TRAILING AXIS
DRAPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL GENERATE A DEEP S/SE FLOW ACRS THE
REGION. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE DRY MID LVL AIR
OVER CENTRAL FL WITH KXMR/KTBW PWAT VALUES ARND 1.25". KMFL SOUNDING
REVEALS A SIG INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE UPSTREAM WITH PWAT VALUES
ARND 1.75"...NEARLY SATURATED THRU THE H95-H75 LYR. HOWEVER...A
SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR REVEALS A MID LVL
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL IMPEDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...RIDGE
CONFIRMED BY RAP40 ANALYSIS WITH H70 TEMPS ARND 7C OVER THE NECK OF
THE FL PENINSULA...INCREASING TO ARND 10C OVER THE SRN TIP.

RADAR DATA REVEALS THE IMPACT OF THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WAKE EDDYS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE NRN BAHAMAS HAVE MANAGED TO SQUEEZE THIN SHRA
BANDS OUT OF THE CONVERGENT CLOUD STREAKS...BUT ONLY AS THEY
APPROACH THE ATLC WATERS N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. S OF THE INLET...
RADAR IS QUIET. THIS ROUGHLY COINCIDES WITH THE H70 8C ISOTHERM AND
THE H100-H70 70PCT ISOHUME. IT ALSO SUGGESTS NEAR MAX HEATING WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR BEFORE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE
SPARKS CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN.

S/SE FLOW WILL PULL INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE UP FROM THE S...BUT
THERE REMAINS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H85-H50 LYR
THAT WILL IMPEDE SHRA/TSRA FORMATION THRU MID AFTN. FURTHERMORE...
MID LVL VORTICITY AND UPR LVL DIVERGENCE FIELDS REVEAL LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT IN THE IMMEDIATE VCNTY. THERE IS A NOTEWORTHY
IMPULSE OVER THE NE GOMEX/WRN PANHANDLE...BUT THIS IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN W/SWRLY H85-H30 STEERING FLOW THAT WILL CARRY IT INTO THE BIG
BEND/CENTRAL PANHANDLE REGION.

PREVAILING SRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WILL ALLOW BOTH EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DVLP AND MAKE MORE OR LESS EQUAL INLAND
PROGRESS. LATE AFTN MERGER WILL OCCUR OVER THE SPINE OF THE FL
PENINSULA...WHILE THE W/SW FLOW THRU THE H85-H30 STEERING LYR WILL
GENERATE BLOW BACK PRECIP TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO COASTS. WILL
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR TO 40-50PCT THIS AFTN...
AND TO ARND 40PCT FOR BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO THIS EVNG. RAP40 ANALYSIS
INDICATES H50 TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO -10C/-11C...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 50MPH WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 02/12Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 03/02Z...S/SE 7-12KTS...OCNL SFC G18-22KTS S OF
KMLB. BTWN 03/02Z-03/05Z...BCMG S/SE 4-8KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: BTWN 02/15Z-02/18Z...N OF KMLB VCSH WITH OCNL MVFR
CIGS BTWN FL020-030. BTWN 02/18Z-02/21Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR
TSRAS DVLPG ON THE ECSB MVG N 10-15KTS. BTWN 02/21Z-02/24Z...
INTERIOR SITES SCT IFR TSRAS/SLGT CHC LIFR +TSRAS WITH SFC G35KTS.
COASTAL SITES SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS...MVG N 10-15KTS. BTWN 03/00Z-
03/04Z...N OF KMLB-KISM CHC IFR TSRAS/SLGT CHC LIFR +TSRA WITH SFC
G35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL CONDS AS A HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA GENERATES A
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. SEAS 3-4FT...THOUGH
THE SE WIND COMPONENT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE TREASURE COAST WATERS
UNDER THE SHADOW OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...RESULTING IN SHORT PD WIND
CHOP WITH DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC. N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...WAVE PDS
OPEN UP TO ARND 9SEC. CHC OF TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET
TOWARD SUNSET...CONTG INTO LATE EVNG.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 021423
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1023 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...

H100-H70 RIDGE AXIS CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA WITH A TRAILING AXIS
DRAPED OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL GENERATE A DEEP S/SE FLOW ACRS THE
REGION. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE DRY MID LVL AIR
OVER CENTRAL FL WITH KXMR/KTBW PWAT VALUES ARND 1.25". KMFL SOUNDING
REVEALS A SIG INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE UPSTREAM WITH PWAT VALUES
ARND 1.75"...NEARLY SATURATED THRU THE H95-H75 LYR. HOWEVER...A
SHARP SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN THE H85-H70 LYR REVEALS A MID LVL
THERMAL RIDGE THAT WILL IMPEDE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...RIDGE
CONFIRMED BY RAP40 ANALYSIS WITH H70 TEMPS ARND 7C OVER THE NECK OF
THE FL PENINSULA...INCREASING TO ARND 10C OVER THE SRN TIP.

RADAR DATA REVEALS THE IMPACT OF THIS THERMAL RIDGE...WAKE EDDYS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE NRN BAHAMAS HAVE MANAGED TO SQUEEZE THIN SHRA
BANDS OUT OF THE CONVERGENT CLOUD STREAKS...BUT ONLY AS THEY
APPROACH THE ATLC WATERS N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. S OF THE INLET...
RADAR IS QUIET. THIS ROUGHLY COINCIDES WITH THE H70 8C ISOTHERM AND
THE H100-H70 70PCT ISOHUME. IT ALSO SUGGESTS NEAR MAX HEATING WILL
OCCUR ALONG AND S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR BEFORE SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE
SPARKS CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN.

S/SE FLOW WILL PULL INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE UP FROM THE S...BUT
THERE REMAINS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H85-H50 LYR
THAT WILL IMPEDE SHRA/TSRA FORMATION THRU MID AFTN. FURTHERMORE...
MID LVL VORTICITY AND UPR LVL DIVERGENCE FIELDS REVEAL LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT IN THE IMMEDIATE VCNTY. THERE IS A NOTEWORTHY
IMPULSE OVER THE NE GOMEX/WRN PANHANDLE...BUT THIS IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN W/SWRLY H85-H30 STEERING FLOW THAT WILL CARRY IT INTO THE BIG
BEND/CENTRAL PANHANDLE REGION.

PREVAILING SRLY FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR WILL ALLOW BOTH EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DVLP AND MAKE MORE OR LESS EQUAL INLAND
PROGRESS. LATE AFTN MERGER WILL OCCUR OVER THE SPINE OF THE FL
PENINSULA...WHILE THE W/SW FLOW THRU THE H85-H30 STEERING LYR WILL
GENERATE BLOW BACK PRECIP TOWARD THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO COASTS. WILL
UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR TO 40-50PCT THIS AFTN...
AND TO ARND 40PCT FOR BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO THIS EVNG. RAP40 ANALYSIS
INDICATES H50 TEMPS HAVE COOLED TO -10C/-11C...SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 50MPH WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 02/12Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 03/02Z...S/SE 7-12KTS...OCNL SFC G18-22KTS S OF
KMLB. BTWN 03/02Z-03/05Z...BCMG S/SE 4-8KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: BTWN 02/15Z-02/18Z...N OF KMLB VCSH WITH OCNL MVFR
CIGS BTWN FL020-030. BTWN 02/18Z-02/21Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR
TSRAS DVLPG ON THE ECSB MVG N 10-15KTS. BTWN 02/21Z-02/24Z...
INTERIOR SITES SCT IFR TSRAS/SLGT CHC LIFR +TSRAS WITH SFC G35KTS.
COASTAL SITES SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS...MVG N 10-15KTS. BTWN 03/00Z-
03/04Z...N OF KMLB-KISM CHC IFR TSRAS/SLGT CHC LIFR +TSRA WITH SFC
G35KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL CONDS AS A HI PRES RIDGE CENTERED SW OF BERMUDA GENERATES A
GENTLE TO MODERATE SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. SEAS 3-4FT...THOUGH
THE SE WIND COMPONENT WILL PLACE MUCH OF THE TREASURE COAST WATERS
UNDER THE SHADOW OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...RESULTING IN SHORT PD WIND
CHOP WITH DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC. N OF SEBASTIAN INLET...WAVE PDS
OPEN UP TO ARND 9SEC. CHC OF TSRAS MVG OFFSHORE N OF SEBASTIAN INLET
TOWARD SUNSET...CONTG INTO LATE EVNG.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KKEY 021423
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ARE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...AND WE HAVE BEEN SEEING ISOLATED SHOWERS POP UP
ON DOPPLER RADAR SCANS ON OCCASION. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 80-85F RANGE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND ONLY A MINUTE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA UNTIL
SEAS SUBSIDE. WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS THIS MORNING OF SEAS OF 4-6
FEET IN A SOUTHEAST SWELL JUST OFF THE REEF SOUTH OF THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS...AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET INSIDE THE REEF OFF THE MIDDLE
KEYS. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC WILL
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A
RESULT...LIGHTER BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY...
RESULTING IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK...LATE- SEASON FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON THURSDAY. BREEZES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND FRESHEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 03/15Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A FEW SHOWERS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCASIONALLY
REACH THE VICINITY OF EACH TERMINAL. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS REMAINS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KTBW 021418
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1018 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS INITIAL WARM BUBBLE AROUND 650-700 MBS WITH
COOLER AIR ALOFT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO GET THROUGH THE WARM/DRY
LAYER...BUT ONCE IT DOES...WE MAY SEE A STRONG STORM OR TWO OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL NEAR 1 INCH. WINDS ARE
LIGHT IN THE STEERING COLUMN...BUT WESTERLIES INCREASE WITH HEIGHT
ABOVE 15KFT. THIS MAY HELP VENT STORMS AND KEEP UPDRAFTS FROM
COLLAPSING.

AS FAR AS COVERAGE GOES...THE HRRR AND OTHER HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 40 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDDED FORECAST TO SHOW HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES. MOST OF
THESE SHOULD BE GONE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

UPDATES TO TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MANY TAF SITES ARE SEEING MVFR CEILINGS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS
TO MIX. EXPECT THESE TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH A RETURN TO VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LAL HAS THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT NEAR THE COAST. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT...THEN
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE WE DONT EXPECT
TO NEED ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
NEED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AT TIMES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  85  73 /  10  10  30  40
FMY  89  73  88  73 /  20  10  30  20
GIF  90  71  87  70 /  40  40  50  20
SRQ  83  73  83  73 /  10  10  30  30
BKV  88  68  84  67 /  20  10  40  50
SPG  86  74  84  73 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...JILLSON
UPPER AIR...DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN




000
FXUS62 KJAX 021416
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1016 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...EAST OF STATE ROUTE 301...BEGINS WITH SSE FLOW WITH OUR
REGION ON THE PRECIPICE OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
ATLANTIC. WEST OF STATE ROUTE 301...BEGINS WITH A SSW FLOW. THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE APPEARS TO BE A MERGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MOST MODELS SHOW CONVECTION
INITIATING NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THERE IS A SECONDARY LINE OF CONVECTION
INDICATED ALONG THE CENTRAL PENINSULA MERGER THAT WILL BE ISOLD
TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE. WITH THE FLOW DOMINATED BY SWLY
STEERING LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL BE
PUSHED TOWARD THE SE GA AND NE FL COASTS DURING THE EARLY-MID
PART OF THE EVENING. THE BEST COVERAGE IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
APPREARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF LINE FROM LAKE CITY TO PONTE
VEDRA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 FCST...BUT CLOSER TO MID 80S AT THE E COAST BEACHES DUE TO ATLC
SEA BREEZE. T-STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT CUMULUS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING...THEN LOW CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN. WITH PROBABILITIES
BELOW 50 PERCENT AT TAF SITES KEPT ONLY 1 OR 2 SITES WITH VICINITY
SHOWER WORDING AT THIS TIME. VCTS MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT
TAF FCST THIS AFTN/EVENING FOR COASTAL TAFS SITES AS WELL AS JAX
AND VQQ.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SLY FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE AS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. BREEZY NW FLOW
EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
WELL W AND NW OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEK. MAIN SHORT TERM
HAZARD FOR MARINERS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  68  84  63 /  40  40  70  50
SSI  83  71  83  67 /  20  40  60  50
JAX  89  70  87  67 /  20  30  50  50
SGJ  85  71  86  69 /  20  30  40  50
GNV  89  69  86  67 /  20  20  40  40
OCF  88  69  85  68 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/HESS/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 021410
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1010 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Slow-moving frontal boundary currently stretches from northwestern
Alabama into southern Mississippi. This boundary is forecast to
move slowly southeastward today as a shortwave aloft tracks
eastward through the southeastern states. Initially, most of the
convection should be well west of the forecast area. However, with
the approaching front and upper energy, along with a moist and
unstable boundary layer, scattered storms will likely develop this
afternoon and evening across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Guidance
also indicates that reasonably steep lapse rates will spread over
this area as well, raising the possibility of an isolated strong
to severe storm or two. Damaging winds and severe hail are the
mostly likely hazards from these storms, which may linger into
the evening hours before diminishing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [555 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
As the mid level ridge continues to weaken and a weak mid level
shortwave moves into the Southeast on Tuesday, the chance of
showers and thunderstorms will increase considerably in the warm
and moist airmass. One concern for Tuesday`s convection is whether
the extensive mid and upper level cloudiness early Tuesday morning
will limit overall destabilization, and thus keep storm coverage
lower. The latest ECAM guidance would seem to suggest this
shouldn`t be a problem, showing PoPs in the 80-90 percent range.
Think that`s a little high at this time, but will increase PoPs
about 10 percent above the latest MOS blend, into the 60-70
percent range for Tuesday afternoon.

Deep layer wind shear increases to around 35-40 kts on Tuesday
afternoon, and model soundings show sufficient CAPE that a few
strong to marginally severe storms are possible. The primary
threat with these storms would be gusty winds.

On Wednesday, the overall pattern across the Eastern CONUS will
begin to amplify greatly as a large trough moves from the Great
Lakes into the Southeast. This will effectively sweep the deep
tropical moisture off to the east, as drier and cooler air moves
into the region. Rain chances will drop considerably Wednesday
morning/afternoon, with skies clearing late in the afternoon.

After a warm, muggy stretch of weather through Tuesday, high
temperatures on Wednesday will only be in the upper 70s to near
80.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
With the large trough across the Southeast through Friday, a
stretch of dry and somewhat cooler temperatures are expected into
the weekend. In fact, as surface high pressure settles over the
Southeast on Saturday, morning low temperatures could drop into
the upper 40s in a few locations - with highs only in the 70s
during the first half of the long term period.

By Sunday, heights begin to rise as shortwave ridging builds back
across the Southeast. The dry weather will continue, but
temperatures will begin to moderate with highs returning to the
mid to upper 80s by the end of the period.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday] Patchy fog and low clouds should
briefly impact the TAF sites until around 13z, especially ECP and
DHN. Visibilities will improve shortly after sunrise, but low
clouds may linger into the late morning hours. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible once again, with the highest
chances near DHN, ABY and VLD.


.MARINE...
Modest south to southwesterly winds will persist through Tuesday
across the marine area. Winds will shift to offshore and increase
by midweek, when a period of cautionary conditions is possible
from Wednesday afternoon into Friday morning. High pressure will
build near the marine area Friday evening, resulting in lighter
winds and lower seas.


.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered storms on Monday should only bring minimal rainfall
to the northern portions of the area. On Tuesday, with increasing
forcing, and greater coverage of storms, model guidance suggests
some areas could see 1-2 inches of rain with the afternoon storms.
These amounts are unlikely to result in any flood concerns. Dry
conditions then return for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  69  84  64  81 /  20  20  70  30  10
Panama City   82  71  78  65  76 /  20  20  50  20  10
Dothan        85  67  80  58  77 /  40  40  50  10   0
Albany        87  68  82  59  78 /  40  40  60  20   0
Valdosta      90  68  84  63  79 /  30  20  70  40  10
Cross City    88  69  84  67  82 /  10  20  40  40  20
Apalachicola  82  72  80  66  78 /  10  20  50  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey




000
FXUS62 KTAE 021410
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1010 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
Slow-moving frontal boundary currently stretches from northwestern
Alabama into southern Mississippi. This boundary is forecast to
move slowly southeastward today as a shortwave aloft tracks
eastward through the southeastern states. Initially, most of the
convection should be well west of the forecast area. However, with
the approaching front and upper energy, along with a moist and
unstable boundary layer, scattered storms will likely develop this
afternoon and evening across SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Guidance
also indicates that reasonably steep lapse rates will spread over
this area as well, raising the possibility of an isolated strong
to severe storm or two. Damaging winds and severe hail are the
mostly likely hazards from these storms, which may linger into
the evening hours before diminishing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [555 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
As the mid level ridge continues to weaken and a weak mid level
shortwave moves into the Southeast on Tuesday, the chance of
showers and thunderstorms will increase considerably in the warm
and moist airmass. One concern for Tuesday`s convection is whether
the extensive mid and upper level cloudiness early Tuesday morning
will limit overall destabilization, and thus keep storm coverage
lower. The latest ECAM guidance would seem to suggest this
shouldn`t be a problem, showing PoPs in the 80-90 percent range.
Think that`s a little high at this time, but will increase PoPs
about 10 percent above the latest MOS blend, into the 60-70
percent range for Tuesday afternoon.

Deep layer wind shear increases to around 35-40 kts on Tuesday
afternoon, and model soundings show sufficient CAPE that a few
strong to marginally severe storms are possible. The primary
threat with these storms would be gusty winds.

On Wednesday, the overall pattern across the Eastern CONUS will
begin to amplify greatly as a large trough moves from the Great
Lakes into the Southeast. This will effectively sweep the deep
tropical moisture off to the east, as drier and cooler air moves
into the region. Rain chances will drop considerably Wednesday
morning/afternoon, with skies clearing late in the afternoon.

After a warm, muggy stretch of weather through Tuesday, high
temperatures on Wednesday will only be in the upper 70s to near
80.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
With the large trough across the Southeast through Friday, a
stretch of dry and somewhat cooler temperatures are expected into
the weekend. In fact, as surface high pressure settles over the
Southeast on Saturday, morning low temperatures could drop into
the upper 40s in a few locations - with highs only in the 70s
during the first half of the long term period.

By Sunday, heights begin to rise as shortwave ridging builds back
across the Southeast. The dry weather will continue, but
temperatures will begin to moderate with highs returning to the
mid to upper 80s by the end of the period.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday] Patchy fog and low clouds should
briefly impact the TAF sites until around 13z, especially ECP and
DHN. Visibilities will improve shortly after sunrise, but low
clouds may linger into the late morning hours. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible once again, with the highest
chances near DHN, ABY and VLD.


.MARINE...
Modest south to southwesterly winds will persist through Tuesday
across the marine area. Winds will shift to offshore and increase
by midweek, when a period of cautionary conditions is possible
from Wednesday afternoon into Friday morning. High pressure will
build near the marine area Friday evening, resulting in lighter
winds and lower seas.


.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered storms on Monday should only bring minimal rainfall
to the northern portions of the area. On Tuesday, with increasing
forcing, and greater coverage of storms, model guidance suggests
some areas could see 1-2 inches of rain with the afternoon storms.
These amounts are unlikely to result in any flood concerns. Dry
conditions then return for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  69  84  64  81 /  20  20  70  30  10
Panama City   82  71  78  65  76 /  20  20  50  20  10
Dothan        85  67  80  58  77 /  40  40  50  10   0
Albany        87  68  82  59  78 /  40  40  60  20   0
Valdosta      90  68  84  63  79 /  30  20  70  40  10
Cross City    88  69  84  67  82 /  10  20  40  40  20
Apalachicola  82  72  80  66  78 /  10  20  50  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Camp
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey




000
FXUS62 KMFL 021204
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY, WHICH WILL VEER THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, THEN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TOMORROW.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF
AND THE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. ALSO, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING, AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY TOMORROW NIGHT,
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO TOMORROW NIGHTS FORECAST FOR THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING, AND THE WIND WILL BE MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY, AND BEGIN TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TUESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE IT SOUTH AND EASTWARD RETREAT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. PREVAILING FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY; LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP, BUT KEEP THE GULF BREEZE NEAR THE COLLIER
COUNTY COAST. FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE METRO AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY,
BUT DEEPER CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. STILL, A THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SIDE OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET STARTS
TO APPROACH THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH MUGGY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW 70S
INLAND/GULF COAST.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND EAST COAST WILL DRIVE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE STORMIEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE SEE A
COMBINATION OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD,
AND EXTENSIVE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH A 100-110KT JET NOSING INTO THE STATE AND
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 25-35KTS, A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TIMING REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE AS THE LOW MOVES,
THOUGH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONTS THROUGH FL FRI AND SAT, WITH MOST MODELS
KEEPING THEM DRY. MOSTLY THEY WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY POST
FRONTAL NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
MOST NOTABLY THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS.

MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE STATE. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
15KTS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
CROSSES THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT THURS MORNING BRINGS WINDS 15-20KTS,
OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS INTO LATE WEEK.

SEAS 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND 1 TO 3 IN THE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IF STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURS, MAY SEE SEAS UP TO 5 FT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND 6 FEET
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK,
MAINLY AFFECTING INLAND WATERWAYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN ALL WATERS TUES AND WED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  90  72 /  20  20  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  90  74 /  20  20  40  20
MIAMI            87  76  90  73 /  10  20  30  20
NAPLES           88  73  88  75 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 021204
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY, WHICH WILL VEER THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY, THEN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TOMORROW.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF
AND THE FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. ALSO, WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING, AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY TOMORROW NIGHT,
HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO TOMORROW NIGHTS FORECAST FOR THE
INTERIOR. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING, AND THE WIND WILL BE MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY, AND BEGIN TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY TOMORROW
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TUESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE IT SOUTH AND EASTWARD RETREAT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. PREVAILING FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY; LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP, BUT KEEP THE GULF BREEZE NEAR THE COLLIER
COUNTY COAST. FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE METRO AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY,
BUT DEEPER CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. STILL, A THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SIDE OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET STARTS
TO APPROACH THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH MUGGY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW 70S
INLAND/GULF COAST.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND EAST COAST WILL DRIVE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE STORMIEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE SEE A
COMBINATION OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD,
AND EXTENSIVE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH A 100-110KT JET NOSING INTO THE STATE AND
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 25-35KTS, A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TIMING REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE AS THE LOW MOVES,
THOUGH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONTS THROUGH FL FRI AND SAT, WITH MOST MODELS
KEEPING THEM DRY. MOSTLY THEY WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY POST
FRONTAL NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
MOST NOTABLY THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS.

MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE STATE. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
15KTS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
CROSSES THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT THURS MORNING BRINGS WINDS 15-20KTS,
OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS INTO LATE WEEK.

SEAS 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND 1 TO 3 IN THE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IF STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURS, MAY SEE SEAS UP TO 5 FT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND 6 FEET
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK,
MAINLY AFFECTING INLAND WATERWAYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN ALL WATERS TUES AND WED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  90  72 /  20  20  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  90  74 /  20  20  40  20
MIAMI            87  76  90  73 /  10  20  30  20
NAPLES           88  73  88  75 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KTBW 021141
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
741 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
A FEW AREAS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG PERSIST...MAINLY AFFECTING PGD
BUT COULD ALSO BRING A BRIEF MVFR/IFR CEILING/VISIBILITY TO OTHER
TERMINALS BEFORE 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. PLAINS TO THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
RIDGING REACHED NORTH OVER ATLANTIC WATERS...FROM CUBA TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...A LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY TRAILED A COLD
FRONT THAT STRETCHED THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED
ACROSS NORTHERN FL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ROTATES DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE GULF REGION...AND PUSHES
THE UPPER RIDGE EAST. IN RESPONSE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SINKS INTO SOUTHERN FL.

ONE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE LATER THIS AFTER-
NOON WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN TUE. THE DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE CAPPING INVERSION OF THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TUE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
RELAXED ENOUGH FOR SEA BREEZES TO SHIFT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH THE PREVAILING
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUE. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
MID-RANGE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE INLAND.
ON TUE...WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE ISOLATED TO HIGH END SCATTERED...WITH THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW RESULTING IN THE MOST COVERAGE INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY TUE.

MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE START OF THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS CYCLONE...FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE NATURE COAST. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING
UPPER SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD...IT WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING KICK TO SHUNT
THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. AS THIS OCCURS...A FRONTALLY-FORCED BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION.

IN ADDITION TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BRING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH IT. SOME VEERING OF WINDS AND A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE
WIND SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TO SOME EXTENT...BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THIS TO
SOME EXTENT. IN ALL..THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
LOOKS TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AT
THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A LOT CAN
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY...SO IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO CHECK
BACK FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH MUCH
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS
THE GULF STATES FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL DAYS
OF FABULOUS WEATHER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES...AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE...THOUGH NO RAIN APPEARS LIKELY FOLLOWING
WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT.

AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF CYCLE: PREVAILING VFR WITH OCNL BKN CU/SC LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING THEN BKN AC/CI LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA VCNTY
LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW AFT 18Z-20Z. LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS SHIFT
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SW TO WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
RATHER BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.
ALTHOUGH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE GULF AND BRINGING WINDS THAT MAY REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR MID-WEEK WITH INCREASING ODDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND PREVAILING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES. THEN MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  85  73 /  10  10  30  40
FMY  89  73  88  73 /  20  20  30  20
GIF  90  71  87  70 /  30  30  50  20
SRQ  83  73  83  73 /  10  10  30  30
BKV  88  68  84  67 /  20  10  40  50
SPG  86  74  84  73 /  10  10  30  40

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  85  73 /  10  10  30  40
FMY  89  73  88  73 /  20  20  30  20
GIF  90  71  87  70 /  30  30  50  20
SRQ  83  73  83  73 /  10  10  30  30
BKV  88  68  84  67 /  20  10  40  50
SPG  86  74  84  73 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JILLSON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 020955
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
555 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday] Patchy fog and low clouds should
briefly impact the TAF sites until around 13z, especially ECP and
DHN. Visibilities will improve shortly after sunrise, but low
clouds may linger into the late morning hours. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible once again, with the highest
chances near DHN, ABY and VLD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [342 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The upper ridge that has been over the region will continue to
flatten as a trough ejects east out of the central Plains. The
associated cold front will advance eastward across the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Deep layer moisture will be increasing
ahead of this system especially north and west of our forecast area.
Pops will be tapered mid range chance (40%) north down to <20% along
the Florida coast. It will hot with highs mostly in the upper 80s to
around 90 inland and lower 80s along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
As the mid level ridge continues to weaken and a weak mid level
shortwave moves into the Southeast on Tuesday, the chance of
showers and thunderstorms will increase considerably in the warm
and moist airmass. One concern for Tuesday`s convection is whether
the extensive mid and upper level cloudiness early Tuesday morning
will limit overall destabilization, and thus keep storm coverage
lower. The latest ECAM guidance would seem to suggest this
shouldn`t be a problem, showing PoPs in the 80-90 percent range.
Think that`s a little high at this time, but will increase PoPs
about 10 percent above the latest MOS blend, into the 60-70
percent range for Tuesday afternoon.

Deep layer wind shear increases to around 35-40 kts on Tuesday
afternoon, and model soundings show sufficient CAPE that a few
strong to marginally severe storms are possible. The primary
threat with these storms would be gusty winds.

On Wednesday, the overall pattern across the Eastern CONUS will
begin to amplify greatly as a large trough moves from the Great
Lakes into the Southeast. This will effectively sweep the deep
tropical moisture off to the east, as drier and cooler air moves
into the region. Rain chances will drop considerably Wednesday
morning/afternoon, with skies clearing late in the afternoon.

After a warm, muggy stretch of weather through Tuesday, high
temperatures on Wednesday will only be in the upper 70s to near
80.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
With the large trough across the Southeast through Friday, a
stretch of dry and somewhat cooler temperatures are expected into
the weekend. In fact, as surface high pressure settles over the
Southeast on Saturday, morning low temperatures could drop into
the upper 40s in a few locations - with highs only in the 70s
during the first half of the long term period.

By Sunday, heights begin to rise as shortwave ridging builds back
across the Southeast. The dry weather will continue, but
temperatures will begin to moderate with highs returning to the
mid to upper 80s by the end of the period.


.MARINE...
Modest south to southwesterly winds will persist through Tuesday
across the marine area. Winds will shift to offshore and increase
by midweek, when a period of cautionary conditions is possible
from Wednesday afternoon into Friday morning. High pressure will
build near the marine area Friday evening, resulting in lighter
winds and lower seas.


.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered storms on Monday should only bring minimal rainfall
to the northern portions of the area. On Tuesday, with increasing
forcing, and greater coverage of storms, model guidance suggests
some areas could see 1-2 inches of rain with the afternoon storms.
These amounts are unlikely to result in any flood concerns. Dry
conditions then return for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  69  84  64  81 /  20  20  70  30  10
Panama City   82  71  78  65  76 /  10  20  50  20  10
Dothan        85  67  80  58  77 /  30  30  50  10   0
Albany        87  68  82  59  78 /  40  20  60  20   0
Valdosta      90  68  84  63  79 /  30  20  70  40  10
Cross City    88  69  84  67  82 /  10  20  40  40  20
Apalachicola  82  72  80  66  78 /  10  20  50  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey




000
FXUS62 KTAE 020955
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
555 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday] Patchy fog and low clouds should
briefly impact the TAF sites until around 13z, especially ECP and
DHN. Visibilities will improve shortly after sunrise, but low
clouds may linger into the late morning hours. Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms will be possible once again, with the highest
chances near DHN, ABY and VLD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [342 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The upper ridge that has been over the region will continue to
flatten as a trough ejects east out of the central Plains. The
associated cold front will advance eastward across the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Deep layer moisture will be increasing
ahead of this system especially north and west of our forecast area.
Pops will be tapered mid range chance (40%) north down to <20% along
the Florida coast. It will hot with highs mostly in the upper 80s to
around 90 inland and lower 80s along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
As the mid level ridge continues to weaken and a weak mid level
shortwave moves into the Southeast on Tuesday, the chance of
showers and thunderstorms will increase considerably in the warm
and moist airmass. One concern for Tuesday`s convection is whether
the extensive mid and upper level cloudiness early Tuesday morning
will limit overall destabilization, and thus keep storm coverage
lower. The latest ECAM guidance would seem to suggest this
shouldn`t be a problem, showing PoPs in the 80-90 percent range.
Think that`s a little high at this time, but will increase PoPs
about 10 percent above the latest MOS blend, into the 60-70
percent range for Tuesday afternoon.

Deep layer wind shear increases to around 35-40 kts on Tuesday
afternoon, and model soundings show sufficient CAPE that a few
strong to marginally severe storms are possible. The primary
threat with these storms would be gusty winds.

On Wednesday, the overall pattern across the Eastern CONUS will
begin to amplify greatly as a large trough moves from the Great
Lakes into the Southeast. This will effectively sweep the deep
tropical moisture off to the east, as drier and cooler air moves
into the region. Rain chances will drop considerably Wednesday
morning/afternoon, with skies clearing late in the afternoon.

After a warm, muggy stretch of weather through Tuesday, high
temperatures on Wednesday will only be in the upper 70s to near
80.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
With the large trough across the Southeast through Friday, a
stretch of dry and somewhat cooler temperatures are expected into
the weekend. In fact, as surface high pressure settles over the
Southeast on Saturday, morning low temperatures could drop into
the upper 40s in a few locations - with highs only in the 70s
during the first half of the long term period.

By Sunday, heights begin to rise as shortwave ridging builds back
across the Southeast. The dry weather will continue, but
temperatures will begin to moderate with highs returning to the
mid to upper 80s by the end of the period.


.MARINE...
Modest south to southwesterly winds will persist through Tuesday
across the marine area. Winds will shift to offshore and increase
by midweek, when a period of cautionary conditions is possible
from Wednesday afternoon into Friday morning. High pressure will
build near the marine area Friday evening, resulting in lighter
winds and lower seas.


.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered storms on Monday should only bring minimal rainfall
to the northern portions of the area. On Tuesday, with increasing
forcing, and greater coverage of storms, model guidance suggests
some areas could see 1-2 inches of rain with the afternoon storms.
These amounts are unlikely to result in any flood concerns. Dry
conditions then return for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  69  84  64  81 /  20  20  70  30  10
Panama City   82  71  78  65  76 /  10  20  50  20  10
Dothan        85  67  80  58  77 /  30  30  50  10   0
Albany        87  68  82  59  78 /  40  20  60  20   0
Valdosta      90  68  84  63  79 /  30  20  70  40  10
Cross City    88  69  84  67  82 /  10  20  40  40  20
Apalachicola  82  72  80  66  78 /  10  20  50  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey




000
FXUS62 KKEY 020935
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
535 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...DUE EAST
OF THE CAROLINA OUTERBANKS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAILED
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR LAND OBSERVING STATIONS
REGISTERING NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH. WHILE WINDS OVER
THE MARINE DISTRICT HAVE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN HAWK
CHANNEL...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS OVER THE BAY AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF
WATERS HAVE BEEN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS HAVE TRAVERSED THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...DELIVERING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE UPPER KEYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND IN TO TUESDAY AS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.
FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES AS INDICATED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.


&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
ITS WAY IN TO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE. A MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE EVIDENT IN THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS...DUE EAST OF THE CAROLINA OUTERBANKS...WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT IN TO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...LIGHTER WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL FRESHEN AND TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...BACK IN THE YEAR 1877...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE
OF 63F WAS RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
TO BE RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  79  86  78 / -  10 10 10
MARATHON  88  79  88  78 / -  10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FLING
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......99

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 020935
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
535 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...DUE EAST
OF THE CAROLINA OUTERBANKS...AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE HAILED
OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST...WITH OUR LAND OBSERVING STATIONS
REGISTERING NEAR 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH. WHILE WINDS OVER
THE MARINE DISTRICT HAVE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN HAWK
CHANNEL...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...WINDS OVER THE BAY AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF
WATERS HAVE BEEN IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE.

A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS HAVE TRAVERSED THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...DELIVERING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN...WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE UPPER KEYS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
HELD STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND IN TO TUESDAY AS A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
DIGS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.
FORECASTS SOUNDINGS SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DOWN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA.
EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES AS INDICATED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.


&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THURSDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR WORKS
ITS WAY IN TO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF A NORTHERLY BREEZE. A MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE EVIDENT IN THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S...AND
TEMPERATURES HOVERING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.


&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS...DUE EAST OF THE CAROLINA OUTERBANKS...WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD TONIGHT IN TO TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...LIGHTER WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR MARINE DISTRICT. A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE WINDS
WILL FRESHEN AND TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN TO
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...BACK IN THE YEAR 1877...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE
OF 63F WAS RECORDED. THIS IS ALSO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER
TO BE RECORDED IN THE MONTH OF MAY. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  79  86  78 / -  10 10 10
MARATHON  88  79  88  78 / -  10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FLING
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......99

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 020824
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
420 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

...INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.NEAR TERM...SFC HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E/SE OF THE AREA
TODAY WHILE COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD FROM THE TN VALLEY TO LOWER MS
VALLEY. THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SRN GA/NRN FL WILL PROVIDE A SLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW. BOTH W AND E COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP WITH
STRONGER SELY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER ERN PARTS OF SE GA DURING THE
AFTN...OTHERWISE DEEP SWLY FLOW WILL ALLOW W COAST SEA BREEZE TO BE
DOMINATE BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AND
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO SUGGEST BEST CHANCES OF RAIN TODAY
WILL BE ACROSS SE GA WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL
BE LOCATED. HAVE ADVERTISED 40-50 PERCENT POPS OVER INLAND SE
GA...WITH 20-30 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED
AGAIN WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 FCST...BUT CLOSER TO MID 80S AT THE
E COAST BEACHES DUE TO ATLC SEA BREEZE. T-STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

TONIGHT...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD
GRADUALLY FADE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BEST CHANCES IN THE
EVENING WILL BE OVER ERN ZONES AND SE GA WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DUE TO S-SW FLOW AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SOME PATCHY
SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE LATE BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PLACE INTO
FCST ATTM.

TUESDAY...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE TO EWD TO THE MID ATLC COAST
TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTN. MEANWHILE...DEEP WSWLY FLOW
AND INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. INDICATED SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH BEST CHANCES OVER SE GA. COMBINATION OF
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR VALUES NEARING 25-35 KT WILL
ALLOW FOR POSSIBILITY OF SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION. SPC HAS PLACED
OUR AREA IN MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FCST GRIDS ATTM DUE TO ANTICIPATED LOW
COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH GUSTY WINDS (~40-60 MPH) AND HAIL
THE MAIN CONCERNS. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT LOWER DUE TO INCREASED
MOISTURE AND PRECIP.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ON TUES NIGHT...DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHEAST GA.
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST GRIDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AREA-WIDE. CLOUDS AND
RAINFALL WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 60S REGION-WIDE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR ON WED...MAINLY
FROM THE MID-MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FRONT
PRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEAST FL. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN
W/SW ALOFT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND COASTAL NORTHEAST
FL...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS WITHIN
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL
FILTER INTO INLAND SOUTHEAST GA BY WED AFTERNOON AS BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S...EXCEPT UPPER 70S NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA/OCMULGEE RIVERS.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON WED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FL. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH W/NW SURFACE WINDS REMAINING IN THE 5-10
MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S AT THE COAST. THESE VALUES ARE
CLOSE TO EARLY MAY CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER TROUGHING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THURS AND
FRI...WITH A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
OUR REGION ON THURS. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR
AREA FOR THURS...BUT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BOOST HIGHS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 70S OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND NEAR 80 OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL. A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURS NIGHT AND FRI. BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE COAST...WITH DECOUPLING
TAKING PLACE INLAND THURS NIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL BELOW EARLY MAY
CLIMO BY FRI MORNING...WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED INLAND AND THE MID
50S AT THE COAST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AREA-WIDE
ON FRI. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR FRI NIGHT...WITH LOWS FALLING
TO THE 50-55 RANGE INLAND AND UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

UPPER TROUGHING WILL SLIDE OFF THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD ON SAT. A
VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS BOOSTING HIGHS INTO THE
LOWER 80S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S AT THE COAST. SEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL SAT NIGHT...WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING
LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S AT
THE COAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER OUR AREA ON SUN...WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS PREVAILING. INLAND HIGHS
WILL REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KEEPING
THE BEACHES IN THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH
14Z NEAR JAX AND SSI TERMINALS...THEN PREVAILING VFR. SCT CUMULUS
WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING...THEN LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTN. WITH PROBABILITIES BELOW 50 PERCENT
AT TAF SITES KEPT ONLY 1 OR 2 SITES WITH VICINITY SHOWER WORDING AT
THIS TIME. VCTS MAY BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF FCST THIS
AFTN/EVENING FOR COASTAL TAFS SITES AS WELL AS JAX AND VQQ.


&&

.MARINE....HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SLY FLOW TODAY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE AS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN
PUSH SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. BREEZY NW FLOW
EXPECTED WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
WELL W AND NW OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEK. MAIN SHORT TERM
HAZARD FOR MARINERS WILL BE OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTN HOURS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  68  84  62 /  50  40  70  50
SSI  82  71  84  67 /  20  30  60  50
JAX  89  70  87  67 /  30  30  50  50
SGJ  85  71  86  69 /  30  30  40  50
GNV  89  69  86  67 /  20  20  40  40
OCF  89  69  86  68 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/NELSON




000
FXUS62 KMLB 020816
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
416 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...RECENT DRY PERIOD COMING TO TEMPORAY END FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...

...INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS EACH DAY THRU MID-WEEK...

...STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...A FEW MARINE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT FOR THE TREASURE
COAST REPRESENT A HINT OF GRADUAL ONSET OF MOISTURE RETURN FOR LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE TODAY THRU MID-WEEK. INITIAL CONVECTIVE SET-UP TODAY
BEGINS WITH SSE FLOW COURTESY OF W PERIPHERY OF RETREATING SFC RIDGE
AXIS. FLOW MANAGED TO KICK-UP A FEW ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS BETWEEN
WEST PALM BEACH AND VERO BEACH. SAME FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW FOR
EMBEDDED SEA BREEZE TO STIR A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...LOOK FOR EVENTUAL
MERGER LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE UP THE
KISSIMMEE RIVER TO ORLANDO/SANFORD TO LAKE GEORGE. A SW STEERING
LAYER ALSO INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE DAY BLOWBACK ACTIVITY
ALONG THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO COASTS. STILL BELIEVE THAT IT WILL TAKE
A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TO MIX/MODIFY THE OVERALL DRY CHARACTERISTICS
OF LOCAL ATMOSPHERE...SO KEPT PEAK POPS LESS THAN 35 PERCENT...
FAVORING THE SPINE OF THE PNSLA...WITH A SKEW BACK TOWARD THE COAST
BETWEEN THE MELBOURNE AND FLAGLER BEACHES LATE. MAX TEMPS
U80S/L90S...EXCEPT M80S NEAR COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZE.

OVERNIGHT...THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT
SEAWARD/SOUTHWARD AS ADVERTISED FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE N PNSLA.
RESULTING SFC FLOW VEERS TO SSW PREPARING FOR PRE-FRONTAL POSTURE
FOR TUE. MIN TEMPS IN THE L70S.

TUE-WED...AN EVOLUTION TO A MORE ENERGETIC PATTERN ACROSS THE SE
STATES WL FEATURE INCREASING WLY FLOW AS AN APCHG WAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF DURING TUE AND TUE NIGHT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND AFTN INSTABILITY WILL BRING SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE LCL
FORECAST BY MID AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CVRG WL OCCUR ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL "MARGINAL"
HAZARD FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO TUE EVENING. A UNUSUALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...PRECEDED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STORMS. THE WINDOW FOR HIGHEST RAIN CHCS AND CVRG OF
STORMS CURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE EARLY WED AND INTO THE MID AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WITH
STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL UNTIL THE TIME OF
FRONTAL PSG ON WED. PSG OF THE FRONT WL BRING EVENTUAL CLEARING
AND UNUSUALLY COOLER CONDS WED NIGHT TO THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE
50S TO LWR 60S.

LATE WEEK...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE COOL EVENINGS
THU AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OVER MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS RECOVERING BACK INTO THE 80S. NO
RAIN IS FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

EXTENDED...BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE MS VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA WITH A DRY FORECAST INTO THE
EXTENDED RANGE WITH SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEKEEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNLY BREEZY FOR SPACE/TREASURE COAST SITES TODAY.
GRADUAL INCREASE TO MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SCHC-CHC CONVECTION
WITH TEMPO MVFR. CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ECSB NEAR THE
EAST COAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SPREADING INLAND LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. VCTS INLAND SITES BETWEEN 21Z AND 03S.
PSBL BLOWBACK OF INLAND STORMS AFT 00Z FOR KTIX AND KDAB.

&&

.MARINE...

GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS TO CONTINUE TODAY BECOMING MORE
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE CURRENT RIDGE AXIS RETREATS
SEAWARD/SOUTHWARD. 3-4 FOOT SEAS NEAR THE COAST WITH 4-5 FOOT
SEAS OVER THE OPEN ATLC. CHOPPY SHORT DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS
EXPECTED.

SEAS AROUND 3-4 FT TUE AND INTO WED WITH HIGHER SEAS DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE ESP BEHIND THE PSG OF THE COLD FRONT WED. HEADLINES MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATERS BY WED AFTN AND INTO THU
BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT. CONDITIONS WL HAVE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
WITH LARGELY HIGH PRESSURE VCTY OF THE WATERS LATER IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TODAY WITH ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES THE MAIN CONCERN. MIN RH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL CONCERN. STORMS WILL FAVOR INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A CHANCE TO DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST FOR
BREVARD AND VOILUSIA COUNTIES LATE.

BENEFICIAL RAINS FORECAST DURING TUE AND INTO WED WL ASSIST IN
MITIGATING FULE CONCERNS TEMPORARILY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. LOW RH CONDITIONS WL RETURN AFTER THE COLD FRONT ESPECIALLY
THU WITH SUB 35 PCT RH FORECAST IN THE AFTN HOURS. A PROLONGED DRY
SPELL EXPECTED LATE WEEK AND WELL INTO INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  70  88  70 /  30  30  50  30
MCO  89  70  89  70 /  30  40  40  30
MLB  87  71  89  69 /  30  30  50  20
VRB  87  72  89  71 /  20  30  50  30
LEE  90  72  88  71 /  30  30  40  40
SFB  89  71  89  71 /  30  30  50  30
ORL  89  72  89  71 /  30  40  40  30
FPR  87  70  90  69 /  20  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....JP




000
FXUS62 KMFL 020809
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TUESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE IT SOUTH AND EASTWARD RETREAT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. PREVAILING FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY; LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP, BUT KEEP THE GULF BREEZE NEAR THE COLLIER
COUNTY COAST. FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE METRO AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY,
BUT DEEPER CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. STILL, A THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SIDE OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET STARTS
TO APPROACH THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH MUGGY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW 70S
INLAND/GULF COAST.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND EAST COAST WILL DRIVE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE STORMIEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE SEE A
COMBINATION OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD,
AND EXTENSIVE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH A 100-110KT JET NOSING INTO THE STATE AND
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 25-35KTS, A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TIMING REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE AS THE LOW MOVES,
THOUGH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONTS THROUGH FL FRI AND SAT, WITH MOST MODELS
KEEPING THEM DRY. MOSTLY THEY WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY POST
FRONTAL NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
MOST NOTABLY THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE STATE. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
15KTS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
CROSSES THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT THURS MORNING BRINGS WINDS 15-20KTS,
OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS INTO LATE WEEK.

SEAS 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND 1 TO 3 IN THE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IF STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURS, MAY SEE SEAS UP TO 5 FT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND 6 FEET
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK,
MAINLY AFFECTING INLAND WATERWAYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN ALL WATERS TUES AND WED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  90  72 /  20  20  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  90  74 /  20  20  40  20
MIAMI            87  76  90  73 /  10  20  30  20
NAPLES           88  73  88  75 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 020809
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TUESDAY...THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE IT SOUTH AND EASTWARD RETREAT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. PREVAILING FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY; LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW BOTH SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP, BUT KEEP THE GULF BREEZE NEAR THE COLLIER
COUNTY COAST. FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY, WHICH
WILL KEEP THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE METRO AREAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SHOWERS TODAY,
BUT DEEPER CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. STILL, A THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SIDE OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MOST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING.  SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES TO THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STORMS AS DEEPER MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER LEVEL JET STARTS
TO APPROACH THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH MUGGY
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND LOW 70S
INLAND/GULF COAST.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND EAST COAST WILL DRIVE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE STORMIEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES LIKELY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE SEE A
COMBINATION OF LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ACTUAL FRONT MOVE
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALOFT DON`T LOOK PARTICULARLY COLD,
AND EXTENSIVE DAYTIME CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE
HEATING. HOWEVER, WITH A 100-110KT JET NOSING INTO THE STATE AND
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASING TO 25-35KTS, A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TIMING REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY
MIDDAY THURSDAY.

FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL SLOWLY SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE AS THE LOW MOVES,
THOUGH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND
THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SECONDARY SURFACE FRONTS THROUGH FL FRI AND SAT, WITH MOST MODELS
KEEPING THEM DRY. MOSTLY THEY WILL SERVE TO REINFORCE THE DRY POST
FRONTAL NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
MOST NOTABLY THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL VEER SOUTH TO SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE STATE. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND
15KTS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
CROSSES THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRIEF WEST-NORTHWEST
WIND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT THURS MORNING BRINGS WINDS 15-20KTS,
OTHERWISE WINDS GENERALLY 10-15KTS INTO LATE WEEK.

SEAS 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND 1 TO 3 IN THE GULF THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IF STRONGER WINDS MATERIALIZE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURS, MAY SEE SEAS UP TO 5 FT OVER THE GULF WATERS AND 6 FEET
OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK,
MAINLY AFFECTING INLAND WATERWAYS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS
AFTERNOON, AND THEN ALL WATERS TUES AND WED AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  90  72 /  20  20  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  90  74 /  20  20  40  20
MIAMI            87  76  90  73 /  10  20  30  20
NAPLES           88  73  88  75 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALM




000
FXUS62 KTBW 020805
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
405 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. PLAINS TO THE GREAT BASIN REGION.
RIDGING REACHED NORTH OVER ATLANTIC WATERS...FROM CUBA TO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...A LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY TRAILED A COLD
FRONT THAT STRETCHED THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED
ACROSS NORTHERN FL INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ROTATES DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE GULF REGION...AND PUSHES
THE UPPER RIDGE EAST. IN RESPONSE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND THE EASTERN GULF COAST. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SINKS INTO SOUTHERN FL.

ONE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE LATER THIS AFTER-
NOON WITH SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING IN TUE. THE DEPARTURE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL ALLOW THE CAPPING INVERSION OF THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TUE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
RELAXED ENOUGH FOR SEA BREEZES TO SHIFT LOW LEVEL FLOW TO ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH THE PREVAILING
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUE. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
MID-RANGE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE INLAND.
ON TUE...WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE APPROACHING FRONT...SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BEGIN IN THE LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THESE WILL BE ISOLATED TO HIGH END SCATTERED...WITH THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW RESULTING IN THE MOST COVERAGE INLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ON THE WARM SIDE OF NORMAL BUT COOL
SLIGHTLY TUE.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE START OF THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS CYCLONE...FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

BY TUESDAY EVENING...SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT
WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE NATURE COAST. A POTENT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING
UPPER SUPPORT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS FEATURE
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD...IT WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING KICK TO SHUNT
THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD. AS THIS OCCURS...A FRONTALLY-FORCED BAND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAIN TO MUCH OF THE REGION.

IN ADDITION TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BRING
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITH IT. SOME VEERING OF WINDS AND A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE
WIND SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION TO SOME EXTENT...BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THIS TO
SOME EXTENT. IN ALL..THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
LOOKS TO FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AT
THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A LOT CAN
CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND WEDNESDAY...SO IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO CHECK
BACK FOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED THROUGH MUCH
OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...USHERING IN A MUCH DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE IN ACROSS
THE GULF STATES FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL DAYS
OF FABULOUS WEATHER...WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES...AND LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE...THOUGH NO RAIN APPEARS LIKELY FOLLOWING
WEDNESDAYS COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF CYCLE: PREVAILING VFR WITH OCNL BKN CU/SC LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING THEN BKN AC/CI LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA VCNTY
LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW AFT 18Z-20Z. LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS SHIFT
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SW TO WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER BENIGN WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.
ALTHOUGH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE GULF AND BRINGING WINDS THAT MAY REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FOR MID-WEEK WITH INCREASING ODDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS AND PREVAILING WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES. THEN MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  85  73 /  10  10  30  40
FMY  89  73  88  73 /  20  20  30  20
GIF  90  71  87  70 /  30  30  50  20
SRQ  83  73  83  73 /  10  10  30  30
BKV  88  68  84  67 /  20  10  40  50
SPG  86  74  84  73 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 020742
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
342 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The upper ridge that has been over the region will continue to
flatten as a trough ejects east out of the central Plains. The
associated cold front will advance eastward across the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Deep layer moisture will be increasing
ahead of this system especially north and west of our forecast area.
Pops will be tapered mid range chance (40%) north down to <20% along
the Florida coast. It will hot with highs mostly in the upper 80s to
around 90 inland and lower 80s along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
As the mid level ridge continues to weaken and a weak mid level
shortwave moves into the Southeast on Tuesday, the chance of
showers and thunderstorms will increase considerably in the warm
and moist airmass. One concern for Tuesday`s convection is whether
the extensive mid and upper level cloudiness early Tuesday morning
will limit overall destabilization, and thus keep storm coverage
lower. The latest ECAM guidance would seem to suggest this
shouldn`t be a problem, showing PoPs in the 80-90 percent range.
Think that`s a little high at this time, but will increase PoPs
about 10 percent above the latest MOS blend, into the 60-70
percent range for Tuesday afternoon.

Deep layer wind shear increases to around 35-40 kts on Tuesday
afternoon, and model soundings show sufficient CAPE that a few
strong to marginally severe storms are possible. The primary
threat with these storms would be gusty winds.

On Wednesday, the overall pattern across the Eastern CONUS will
begin to amplify greatly as a large trough moves from the Great
Lakes into the Southeast. This will effectively sweep the deep
tropical moisture off to the east, as drier and cooler air moves
into the region. Rain chances will drop considerably Wednesday
morning/afternoon, with skies clearing late in the afternoon.

After a warm, muggy stretch of weather through Tuesday, high
temperatures on Wednesday will only be in the upper 70s to near
80.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
With the large trough across the Southeast through Friday, a
stretch of dry and somewhat cooler temperatures are expected into
the weekend. In fact, as surface high pressure settles over the
Southeast on Saturday, morning low temperatures could drop into
the upper 40s in a few locations - with highs only in the 70s
during the first half of the long term period.

By Sunday, heights begin to rise as shortwave ridging builds back
across the Southeast. The dry weather will continue, but
temperatures will begin to moderate with highs returning to the
mid to upper 80s by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Tuesday]...
Patchy fog and low clouds should develop at all TAF sites prior
to daybreak, especially ECP, TLH, and DHN. Visibilities will
improve shortly after sunrise, but low clouds may linger into the
late morning hours. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be
possible once again, with the highest chances near DHN, ABY and
VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Modest south to southwesterly winds will persist through Tuesday
across the marine area. Winds will shift to offshore and increase
by midweek, when a period of cautionary conditions is possible
from Wednesday afternoon into Friday morning. High pressure will
build near the marine area Friday evening, resulting in lighter
winds and lower seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Scattered storms on Monday should only bring minimal rainfall
to the northern portions of the area. On Tuesday, with increasing
forcing, and greater coverage of storms, model guidance suggests
some areas could see 1-2 inches of rain with the afternoon storms.
These amounts are unlikely to result in any flood concerns. Dry
conditions then return for the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  69  84  64  81 /  20  20  70  30  10
Panama City   82  71  78  65  76 /  10  20  50  20  10
Dothan        85  67  80  58  77 /  30  30  50  10   0
Albany        87  68  82  59  78 /  40  20  60  20   0
Valdosta      90  68  84  63  79 /  30  20  70  40  10
Cross City    88  69  84  67  82 /  10  20  40  40  20
Apalachicola  82  72  80  66  78 /  10  20  50  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Godsey




000
FXUS62 KMFL 020558
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
158 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE MORNING SHOWERS OFF THE ATLANTIC BUT
ENSEMBLE OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MOST
LIKELY TO BE OVERLY SPARSE TO WARRANT EVEN VCSH AT THE EAST COAST
SITES AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. AS MORNING PROGRESSES
ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA AWAY FROM TERMINALS SO LEFT MENTION OF VCSH OR EVEN VCTS
AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TOO. AN OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILING CANNOT BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY ALONG EAST COAST SITES
ANYTIME IN LOW LEVEL SE FLOW.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY
DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALONG EAST COAST SITES. AT APF
SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE
C-BRZ AROUND 18Z BACKING TO THE SE THIS EVENING AROUND 5 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MIAMI
BEACH AND BISCAYNE BAY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND
NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...

CLOUD STREAMERS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS OFF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...EXCEPT KPBI AND KTMB...ASSIGNED
VCSH AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHOWERS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...A LINGERING
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL TRANSITION LATER TONIGHT TO AN OFF SHORE
LAND BREEZE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT FOR THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING US FAIRLY QUIET, IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A STRONG 500MB LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THAT IS GOING TO DIG AND DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS SPAWNING A SFC
LOW OVER THE MID WEST, WHICH WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE EST, AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL HAVE
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT MODELS NO HAVE OVER NORTH
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, GIVING RISE TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPAWN A
SECOND SFC LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, WHICH WILL HELP TO
PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS IT DIGS, A THIRD LOW, MORE CLOSELY CONNECTED
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, SPC HAS NO
MENTION OF AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH, WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH THE BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO
BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED
AS THE FRONT DEVELOPS AND TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED..

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY FLOW. SOME SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS HAVING SOME
STRUGGLES REACHING APF WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME VARIABLE GUSTINESS
THERE.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. WITH THE WIND TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY, THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES. MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY INDICATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
VARYING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND 1 TO 4 IN THE
GULF, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY GOING TO 5 FEET AT TIMES IN THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  71  88 /  30  50  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  88  75  90 /  40  40  20  60
MIAMI            76  90  74  90 /  40  30  20  50
NAPLES           72  87  73  84 /  20  20  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 020558
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
158 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE PREVALENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE WILL BE MORNING SHOWERS OFF THE ATLANTIC BUT
ENSEMBLE OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE AND TRENDS INDICATE ACTIVITY MOST
LIKELY TO BE OVERLY SPARSE TO WARRANT EVEN VCSH AT THE EAST COAST
SITES AT THIS TIME. SO LEFT THAT OUT FOR NOW. AS MORNING PROGRESSES
ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA AWAY FROM TERMINALS SO LEFT MENTION OF VCSH OR EVEN VCTS
AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TOO. AN OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILING CANNOT BE RULED OUT PARTICULARLY ALONG EAST COAST SITES
ANYTIME IN LOW LEVEL SE FLOW.

WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY
DURING LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ALONG EAST COAST SITES. AT APF
SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE
C-BRZ AROUND 18Z BACKING TO THE SE THIS EVENING AROUND 5 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MIAMI
BEACH AND BISCAYNE BAY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND
NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...

CLOUD STREAMERS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS OFF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...EXCEPT KPBI AND KTMB...ASSIGNED
VCSH AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHOWERS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...A LINGERING
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL TRANSITION LATER TONIGHT TO AN OFF SHORE
LAND BREEZE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT FOR THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING US FAIRLY QUIET, IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A STRONG 500MB LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THAT IS GOING TO DIG AND DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS SPAWNING A SFC
LOW OVER THE MID WEST, WHICH WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE EST, AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL HAVE
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT MODELS NO HAVE OVER NORTH
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, GIVING RISE TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPAWN A
SECOND SFC LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, WHICH WILL HELP TO
PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS IT DIGS, A THIRD LOW, MORE CLOSELY CONNECTED
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, SPC HAS NO
MENTION OF AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH, WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH THE BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO
BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED
AS THE FRONT DEVELOPS AND TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED..

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY FLOW. SOME SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS HAVING SOME
STRUGGLES REACHING APF WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME VARIABLE GUSTINESS
THERE.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. WITH THE WIND TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY, THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES. MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY INDICATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
VARYING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND 1 TO 4 IN THE
GULF, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY GOING TO 5 FEET AT TIMES IN THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  71  88 /  30  50  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  88  75  90 /  40  40  20  60
MIAMI            76  90  74  90 /  40  30  20  50
NAPLES           72  87  73  84 /  20  20  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KTBW 020546
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
146 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF CYCLE: PREVAILING VFR WITH OCNL BKN CU/SC LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING THEN BKN AC/CI LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA VCNTY
LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW AFT 18Z-20Z. LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS SHIFT
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SW TO WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 88D RETURNS SHOW THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER NO CONVECTION HAS FIRED OFF ALONG THIS
SEA BREEZE MERGER DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING AROUND 780MB. AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. WILL REMOVE EVENING RAIN
CHANCE WORDING FROM THE ZONES IN A MID EVENING UPDATE...OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT ALONG THE COAST WILL COLLAPSE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
RETURNING TO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE AROUND 10 PM.

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  86  73 /  10  10  30  30
FMY  89  73  88  72 /  20  20  20  20
GIF  90  71  89  70 /  30  30  40  20
SRQ  83  73  84  73 /  10  10  20  30
BKV  88  68  87  68 /  20  10  30  30
SPG  86  74  85  73 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 020546
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
146 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.AVIATION...
02/06Z TAF CYCLE: PREVAILING VFR WITH OCNL BKN CU/SC LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING THEN BKN AC/CI LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLD TSRA VCNTY
LAL/PGD/FMY/RSW AFT 18Z-20Z. LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WINDS SHIFT
THROUGH THE SOUTH TO SW TO WEST FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 88D RETURNS SHOW THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER NO CONVECTION HAS FIRED OFF ALONG THIS
SEA BREEZE MERGER DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING AROUND 780MB. AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. WILL REMOVE EVENING RAIN
CHANCE WORDING FROM THE ZONES IN A MID EVENING UPDATE...OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT ALONG THE COAST WILL COLLAPSE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
RETURNING TO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE AROUND 10 PM.

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

UPDATE/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  86  73 /  10  10  30  30
FMY  89  73  88  72 /  20  20  20  20
GIF  90  71  89  70 /  30  30  40  20
SRQ  83  73  84  73 /  10  10  20  30
BKV  88  68  87  68 /  20  10  30  30
SPG  86  74  85  73 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/RUDE




000
FXUS62 KKEY 020154
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
954 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
KBYX DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES A VERY SMALL POCKET OF LIGHT SHOWERS ON
THE EASTERN EXTREME OF OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AT THIS HOUR.
OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A GENTLE TO
MODERATE EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS DIPPED EVEN
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER WITHIN THE COLUMN IS NOW JUST UNDER AN INCH. THE
EAST BREEZES ARE GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH AT LEAST 10000 FEET AND
BACK ABOVE THAT...WITH ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER SURGING TO AROUND 20
KNOTS RIGHT AT 1000 FEET. RECENTLY SENT A ZONE UPDATE JUST TO MAKE A
MINOR WIND ADJUSTMENT FROM THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE. AND...DID NOT PUT
IN A MENTION OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ANYWHERE EVEN THOUGH THE
HRRR SUGGESTS THE ECHOES OFF THE UPPER KEYS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE VCNTY OF KEY LARGO.
WILL MONITOR OF COURSE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN SURGING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS THIS EVENING LIKE THEY DID LAST EVENING. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS STILL SUGGEST THAT COULD BE THE CASE THROUGH ABOUT 08-09Z.
THAT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. SO...WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INITIAL WIND CONDITIONS IN THE GRIDS
ELEMENTS BUT HOLD ON TO THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR SMALL
CRAFT FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER
BREEZES ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE LATER MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS UP TO ROUGHLY 3000 FEET.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 020130
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MIAMI
BEACH AND BISCAYNE BAY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND
NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...

CLOUD STREAMERS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS OFF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...EXCEPT KPBI AND KTMB...ASSIGNED
VCSH AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHOWERS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...A LINGERING
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL TRANSITION LATER TONIGHT TO AN OFF SHORE
LAND BREEZE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT FOR THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING US FAIRLY QUIET, IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A STRONG 500MB LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THAT IS GOING TO DIG AND DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS SPAWNING A SFC
LOW OVER THE MID WEST, WHICH WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE EST, AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL HAVE
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT MODELS NO HAVE OVER NORTH
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, GIVING RISE TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPAWN A
SECOND SFC LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, WHICH WILL HELP TO
PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS IT DIGS, A THIRD LOW, MORE CLOSELY CONNECTED
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, SPC HAS NO
MENTION OF AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH, WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH THE BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO
BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED
AS THE FRONT DEVELOPS AND TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED..

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY FLOW. SOME SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS HAVING SOME
STRUGGLES REACHING APF WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME VARIABLE GUSTINESS
THERE.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. WITH THE WIND TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY, THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES. MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY INDICATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
VARYING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND 1 TO 4 IN THE
GULF, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY GOING TO 5 FEET AT TIMES IN THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  74  89 /  10  20  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  88 /  10  20  40  40
MIAMI            77  88  76  90 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           71  88  72  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 020119
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
919 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A cold front stretches from southern Illinois southwestward to the
Gulf coast of Texas. This front will continue its slow eastward
movement through the night, but will remain out of our forecast area
through the period. Well ahead of the front itself is a line of
storms from northeastern Georgia down to southeastern Louisiana,
which is dissipating with the loss of daytime heating and separation
from its initial forcing and upper level support. Further east,
the east coast seabreeze makes its way inland, but is expected to
also wind down over the next several hours due to a loss of
diurnal heating. Storms should be completely cleared by midnight.
Patchy fog will develop once again across the area in the early
morning hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [743 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

An upper-level long wave trough will develop across the eastern
CONUS. At the surface, a a cold front will approach our forecast
area from the northwest Monday afternoon and evening, and move
slowly southeastward across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The highest PoPs (30-40%) on Monday afternoon will be across south
GA and AL, as this area will be closer to stronger forcing and
deeper moisture. Rain is likely across most of our forecast area
on Tuesday as the front moves through and deep layer moisture
peaks. With moderate CAPE (1500 J/kg), high surface dewpoints
(65-70), and marginal 0-6km bulk shear values (30 KT), there
could be some loosely- organized multi-cell clusters, as well as isolated
pulse severe storms Monday afternoon and Tuesday; but so far none
the CAMs are forecasting surrogate severe parameters which "jump
out" as being too worrisome. It will remain hot and humid, though
highs will "only" be in the mid 80s Tuesday afternoon because of
the clouds and rain. Highs Monday will be near 90. Lows each day
will be in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

April weather will return despite the calendar progressing through
early May. An anomalously-deep, upper-level long wave trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS Wednesday and Thursday. The
aforementioned surface cold front will exit southeast of our
forecast area on Wednesday, followed by somewhat cooler and much
drier air. The upper level height pattern over the CONUS will be
amplified through next weekend, with very slow progress of the
troughs and ridges. So even though deep-layer ridging (warming)
will begin next weekend, our forecast area will remain under the
subsidence side of the upper level ridge. Lows will be in the 50s,
even around 50 Thursday night. Highs will be in the mid to upper
70s Thursday and Friday, then mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...

Isolated storms near DHN are slowly moving northeast and dissipating
as is convection off to the west. Expect mostly VFR conditions
through around 09Z, when fog and low clouds are expected to develop,
mostly near ECP, TLH, and DHN. Visibilities will improve shortly
after sunrise, but low clouds may linger into the late morning
hours. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible once
again, with the highest chances near ABY and VLD.


.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Tuesday as a high pressure
system remains centered over the western Atlantic Ocean. A cold
front will move southeast across the marine area Tuesday and Tuesday
night, followed by increasing winds from the NW and higher seas.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected through the middle
of the week. Relative humidity values will drop below 30 percent
Thursday and Friday, then begin to increase again heading into the
weekend.


.HYDROLOGY...

For the first time in quite a while there were no rivers in "action
stage" across our forecast area. Storm total rainfall amounts
through Wednesday are around half an inch, though isolated amounts
up to 4 inches are possible. The expect lack of widespread heavy
rain means that the rivers will continue to subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  87  70  84  63 /  10  20  20  50  30
Panama City   69  81  72  78  65 /  10  10  20  50  20
Dothan        67  85  68  80  58 /  30  30  30  50  10
Albany        67  87  68  81  59 /  30  40  30  50  20
Valdosta      67  88  68  84  63 /  20  30  10  60  40
Cross City    67  87  68  84  67 /  10  10  10  30  30
Apalachicola  70  81  72  80  66 /  10  10  10  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Fournier




000
FXUS62 KTBW 020117
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
917 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 88D RETURNS SHOW THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COLLIDING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER NO CONVECTION HAS FIRED OFF ALONG THIS
SEA BREEZE MERGER DUE TO THE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED ON THE 00Z SOUNDING AROUND 780MB. AS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S OVER INLAND
AREAS AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. WILL REMOVE EVENING RAIN
CHANCE WORDING FROM THE ZONES IN A MID EVENING UPDATE...OTHERWISE
NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO CONTINUE. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 03Z.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z
ON MONDAY BECOMING WEST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 18Z AT ALL COASTAL
TERMINALS AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AFFECTING KLAL...KPGD...KFMY
AND KRSW TERMINALS AFTER 20Z WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN DEPICTED.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT ALONG THE COAST WILL COLLAPSE IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH CONTINUED LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR SHORE AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
RETURNING TO THE WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST DURING
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE AROUND 10 PM.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL
UPPER AIR...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KMLB 020108
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...EVENING KXMR SOUNDING SHOWS A CONTINUED DRY
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.08 INCHES. IN SPITE OF
THIS A FEW SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE AND
LAKE COUNTIES THIS EVENING ALONG THE ECSB BUT EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH SHORTLY ACROSS ECFL. ESE/SE WINDS FALLING TO AROUND 5 MPH
OVER THE INTERIOR AND 5-10 MPH NEAR THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE U60S/L70S.

MONDAY...PREVIOUS...BRISK ZONAL COMPONENT TO THE H50-H10 FLOW OVER
THE SRN TIER STATES WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC TOWARD
BERMUDA. AS IT DOES...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
FILTERING INTO N FL. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SERLY H100-H70 FLOW THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS
LOW LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE SRN BAHAMAS.

THE RESULTING TWO-FRONTED MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN WILL MODIFY THE
DRY AIR ENOUGH TO BRING PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.25"-1.50" RANGE BY
18Z MON...AND TO AROUND 1.5" BY 00Z TUE. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING SEAWARD...SFC/LOW LVL WINDS WILL TAKE ON A
SLIGHTLY MORE SRLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL SHIFT ANY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVNG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MERGER BACK TO THE E...WHILE W/SW FLOW THRU
THE H85-H50 STEERING LVL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWBACK PRECIP
ALONG THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO COASTS.

THERE REMAINS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H85-H30 LYR
THAT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO FULLY MODIFY...GFS SUGGESTING AVG LYR
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BTWN 10-15C THRU 18Z MON...BTWN 7-10C THRU 00Z
TUE...WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE POTENTIAL. WILL CAP POPS AT 30PCT
FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA NWD...20PCT FOR THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS SEABREEZE FORMATION AND INLAND PROPAGATION WILL
BE GREATER OVER THE SRN CWA...WHILE THE MORE SRLY H100-H70 FLOW
PLACES MUCH OF OKEECHOBEE CO IN THE SHADOW OF LAKE-O. MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TODAY...HIGHS ARND 90F ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SEA BREEZE
KEEPING COAST MAXES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ESE/SE WINDS OF 5-
10 KTS. WIND SPEEDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MON...OCNLY BREEZY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. INCREASING MOISTURE ON MON WITH
SCHC-CHC CONVECTION (TEMPO MVFR). CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ECSB NEAR THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SPREADING INLAND
LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-MON...GENTLE TO MODERATE ESE/SE WINDS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE PERIOD. 3 FT SEAS NEAR THE COAST WITH 4 FT SEAS OVER THE
OPEN ATLC. CHOPPY SHORT DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS EXPECTED.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KJAX 020034
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
834 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.UPDATE...SEABREEZES MOVED INLAND TODAY BUT LITTLE CONVECTION
OCCURRED OVER NE FL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING. CONVECTION STILL LINGERS OVER INTERIOR SE GA THIS
EVENING IN AN AREA WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THERE TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...S TO SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN 2 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  88  67  84 /  30  40  40  60
SSI  71  82  71  83 /  20  30  30  60
JAX  70  88  68  86 /  10  30  30  50
SGJ  71  85  70  85 /  10  20  30  40
GNV  68  89  67  86 /  10  20  20  40
OCF  69  89  67  86 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/SANDRIK/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 020034
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
834 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016


.UPDATE...SEABREEZES MOVED INLAND TODAY BUT LITTLE CONVECTION
OCCURRED OVER NE FL DUE TO SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING. CONVECTION STILL LINGERS OVER INTERIOR SE GA THIS
EVENING IN AN AREA WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATER. EXPECT A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THERE TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...S TO SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN 2 TO 4 FOOT
RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  88  67  84 /  30  40  40  60
SSI  71  82  71  83 /  20  30  30  60
JAX  70  88  68  86 /  10  30  30  50
SGJ  71  85  70  85 /  10  20  30  40
GNV  68  89  67  86 /  10  20  20  40
OCF  69  89  67  86 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/SANDRIK/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KTBW 020000
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
02/00Z CYCLE. VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AOA FL050. A BRIEF SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z AND HAVE HANDLED
WITH VCSH/VCTS. A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE TAMPA BAY TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z AS THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTERACT...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 03Z. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z ON MONDAY
BECOMING WEST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 18Z AT ALL COASTAL
TERMINALS AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE AT KLAL...KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW TERMINALS AFTER
20Z WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN DEPICTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CROSSES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE NOSE OF THE MAIN JETSTREAK
OVER OUR REGION. NORTHERN STREAM JET IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
PROXIMITY...CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE
MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. 01/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED
THESE WINDS ALOFT WELL...SHOWING A DEEP LAYER WEST FLOW ABOVE
700MB.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING AND
ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS
THAT WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANVIL BLOWOFF ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER FLOW.

SEA-BREEZE HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST AND WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THIS WEST-COAST SEA-BREEZE AND THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE SET UP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. MID-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
THE CUMULUS FIELD IN THIS REGION BECOMING A BIT MORE DEFINED.
ALTHOUGH...AS OF NOW...NOT SEEING ANYTHING ON RADAR AS THESE
COLUMNS ARE SHALLOW AND STILL TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG CAPPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWN WELL ON THE MORNING 12Z KTBW SOUNDING.
THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL HOLD BACK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE MOISTURE POOLING IS GREATEST ALONG THE
CONVERGING SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ML CAPE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT
TO BRIEFLY OVERCOME THIS CAPPING LAYER AND SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT STORMS AFTER 21Z. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
ALREADY WAY TO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION COMPARED TO
REALITY...SO UNFORTUNATELY CAN NOT USE THIS USUALLY RELIABLE
GUIDANCE TO HELP WITH THE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. FEEL THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR NOW. EXPECT A
FEW STORMS TO FINALLY BREAK THIS CAP WITHIN THE ZONE DESCRIBED
ABOVE...MOST LIKELY INITIATING BETWEEN 21-22Z...AND THEN LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LATE START TO THE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WOULD
ANTICIPATE THE CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TO LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST SUNSET. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE UNTIL 03Z...AND THEN ALLOW THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY REGION-WIDE. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ARE
QUITE LIKELY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT NEITHER THE SREF OR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING WE WILL HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
VIS ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LOW...WOULD AGREE WITH THE NWP. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM
TODAY. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAY BE THAT THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND HENCE A BIT LESS
HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...THERE DOES STILL SEEM TO BE
A HINT OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT APPEARS LESS DRAMATIC. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LATE DAY STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. INHERITED FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS IN
THIS ZONE...AND THEN TAPERS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO 10-20% AT THE
COAST. BASED ON THE EXTENT OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...DO NOT SEE
MUCH REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ANY CONVECTION ON MONDAY
WILL AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO PUSH 90 FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEACHES TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY EVENING EVERYONE!

MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WINDS BECOME MORE SW AS SURFACE RIDGE
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (H5 TEMPS AROUND -12C) SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE CATALYST
FOR GIVING THIS FRONT THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO CLEAR OUT OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS
SHORTWAVE...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SO STAY TUNED. EITHER
WAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER...DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
WILL FILTER IN TO THE PENINSULA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NO RAIN AND
LIMITED CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER 70S
TO LOW/MID 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MID/UPPER
50S...LOW/MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN
MODERATING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE DURING WEDNESDAY. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AWAY
FROM THE COAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  87  74  86 /  20  10  10  30
FMY  71  88  73  88 /  20  30  20  20
GIF  71  90  71  89 /  10  30  30  40
SRQ  72  83  72  84 /  10  10  10  20
BKV  68  88  68  87 /  20  20  20  30
SPG  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  10  30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL




000
FXUS62 KTBW 020000
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
02/00Z CYCLE. VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME FEW TO SCATTERED
CLOUDS AOA FL050. A BRIEF SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z AND HAVE HANDLED
WITH VCSH/VCTS. A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE
TO THE TAMPA BAY TERMINALS THROUGH 03Z AS THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTERACT...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS AFTER 03Z. SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH WINDS AT 7 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 14Z ON MONDAY
BECOMING WEST AT 10 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 18Z AT ALL COASTAL
TERMINALS AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS...WITH ISOLATED
TSRA POSSIBLE AT KLAL...KPGD...KFMY...AND KRSW TERMINALS AFTER
20Z WHERE VCTS HAS BEEN DEPICTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CROSSES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE NOSE OF THE MAIN JETSTREAK
OVER OUR REGION. NORTHERN STREAM JET IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
PROXIMITY...CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE
MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. 01/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED
THESE WINDS ALOFT WELL...SHOWING A DEEP LAYER WEST FLOW ABOVE
700MB.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING AND
ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS
THAT WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANVIL BLOWOFF ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER FLOW.

SEA-BREEZE HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST AND WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THIS WEST-COAST SEA-BREEZE AND THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE SET UP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. MID-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
THE CUMULUS FIELD IN THIS REGION BECOMING A BIT MORE DEFINED.
ALTHOUGH...AS OF NOW...NOT SEEING ANYTHING ON RADAR AS THESE
COLUMNS ARE SHALLOW AND STILL TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG CAPPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWN WELL ON THE MORNING 12Z KTBW SOUNDING.
THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL HOLD BACK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE MOISTURE POOLING IS GREATEST ALONG THE
CONVERGING SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ML CAPE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT
TO BRIEFLY OVERCOME THIS CAPPING LAYER AND SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT STORMS AFTER 21Z. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
ALREADY WAY TO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION COMPARED TO
REALITY...SO UNFORTUNATELY CAN NOT USE THIS USUALLY RELIABLE
GUIDANCE TO HELP WITH THE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. FEEL THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR NOW. EXPECT A
FEW STORMS TO FINALLY BREAK THIS CAP WITHIN THE ZONE DESCRIBED
ABOVE...MOST LIKELY INITIATING BETWEEN 21-22Z...AND THEN LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LATE START TO THE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WOULD
ANTICIPATE THE CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TO LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST SUNSET. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE UNTIL 03Z...AND THEN ALLOW THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY REGION-WIDE. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ARE
QUITE LIKELY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT NEITHER THE SREF OR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING WE WILL HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
VIS ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LOW...WOULD AGREE WITH THE NWP. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM
TODAY. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAY BE THAT THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND HENCE A BIT LESS
HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...THERE DOES STILL SEEM TO BE
A HINT OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT APPEARS LESS DRAMATIC. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LATE DAY STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. INHERITED FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS IN
THIS ZONE...AND THEN TAPERS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO 10-20% AT THE
COAST. BASED ON THE EXTENT OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...DO NOT SEE
MUCH REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ANY CONVECTION ON MONDAY
WILL AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO PUSH 90 FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEACHES TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY EVENING EVERYONE!

MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WINDS BECOME MORE SW AS SURFACE RIDGE
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (H5 TEMPS AROUND -12C) SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE CATALYST
FOR GIVING THIS FRONT THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO CLEAR OUT OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS
SHORTWAVE...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES SO STAY TUNED. EITHER
WAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER...DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR
WILL FILTER IN TO THE PENINSULA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NO RAIN AND
LIMITED CLOUD COVER. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER 70S
TO LOW/MID 80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MID/UPPER
50S...LOW/MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN
MODERATING LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE... ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE DURING WEDNESDAY. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AWAY
FROM THE COAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  87  74  86 /  20  10  10  30
FMY  71  88  73  88 /  20  30  20  20
GIF  71  90  71  89 /  10  30  30  40
SRQ  72  83  72  84 /  10  10  10  20
BKV  68  88  68  87 /  20  20  20  30
SPG  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  10  30

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL




000
FXUS62 KTAE 012343
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
743 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Tuesday]...

Isolated storms near DHN are slowly moving northeast and dissipating
as is convection off to the west. Expect mostly VFR conditions
through around 09Z, when fog and low clouds are expected to develop,
mostly near ECP, TLH, and DHN. Visibilities will improve shortly
after sunrise, but low clouds may linger into the late morning
hours. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will be possible once
again, with the highest chances near ABY and VLD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [324 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

At the upper levels, a trough was stretched from the Great Lakes
into the central Plains and then into the SW CONUS with multiple
waves in the flow with the overall pattern progressing little
tonight. A frontal boundary this afternoon was stretched from the MS
valley into eastern TX and with very slow movement, will continue to
remain west of the CWA through tonight. The line of thunderstorms
ahead of this front across LA, MS and AL are forecast to once again
diminish before reaching the CWA.

With the southerly flow at the surface ahead of the aforementioned
system, plenty of moisture is being pumped into the area and with
above normal temperatures it almost seems summer-like. Afternoon
convection has been driven off of this and hi-res models are once
again consistent with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the northern half of the CWA. Activity will diminish by late
tonight. Widespread severe storms are not expected, however some
storms could be strong with gusty winds and hail.

Low temperatures continue to remain well above average with most
areas only forecast to drop into the mid 60s overnight.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

An upper-level long wave trough will develop across the eastern
CONUS. At the surface, a a cold front will approach our forecast
area from the northwest Monday afternoon and evening, and move
slowly southeastward across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The highest PoPs (30-40%) on Monday afternoon will be across south
GA and AL, as this area will be closer to stronger forcing and
deeper moisture. Rain is likely across most of our forecast area
on Tuesday as the front moves through and deep layer moisture
peaks. With moderate CAPE (1500 J/kg), high surface dewpoints
(65-70), and marginal 0-6km bulk shear values (30 KT), there
could be some loosely- organized multi-cell clusters, as well as isolated
pulse severe storms Monday afternoon and Tuesday; but so far none
the CAMs are forecasting surrogate severe parameters which "jump
out" as being too worrisome. It will remain hot and humid, though
highs will "only" be in the mid 80s Tuesday afternoon because of
the clouds and rain. Highs Monday will be near 90. Lows each day
will be in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

April weather will return despite the calendar progressing through
early May. An anomalously-deep, upper-level long wave trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS Wednesday and Thursday. The
aforementioned surface cold front will exit southeast of our
forecast area on Wednesday, followed by somewhat cooler and much
drier air. The upper level height pattern over the CONUS will be
amplified through next weekend, with very slow progress of the
troughs and ridges. So even though deep-layer ridging (warming)
will begin next weekend, our forecast area will remain under the
subsidence side of the upper level ridge. Lows will be in the 50s,
even around 50 Thursday night. Highs will be in the mid to upper
70s Thursday and Friday, then mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.


.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Tuesday as a high pressure
system remains centered over the western Atlantic Ocean. A cold
front will move southeast across the marine area Tuesday and Tuesday
night, followed by increasing winds from the NW and higher seas.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected through the middle
of the week. Relative humidity values will drop below 30 percent
Thursday and Friday, then begin to increase again heading into the
weekend.


.HYDROLOGY...

For the first time in quite a while there were no rivers in "action
stage" across our forecast area. Storm total rainfall amounts
through Wednesday are around half an inch, though isolated amounts
up to 4 inches are possible. The expect lack of widespread heavy
rain means that the rivers will continue to subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  87  70  84  63 /  10  20  20  50  30
Panama City   69  81  72  78  65 /  10  10  20  50  20
Dothan        67  85  68  80  58 /  30  30  30  50  10
Albany        67  87  68  81  59 /  30  40  30  50  20
Valdosta      67  88  68  84  63 /  20  30  10  60  40
Cross City    67  87  68  84  67 /  10  10  10  30  30
Apalachicola  70  81  72  80  66 /  10  10  10  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Fournier




000
FXUS62 KMFL 012341
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
741 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...

CLOUD STREAMERS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS OFF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...EXCEPT KPBI AND KTMB...ASSIGNED
VCSH AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHOWERS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...A LINGERING
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL TRANSITION LATER TONIGHT TO AN OFF SHORE
LAND BREEZE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT FOR THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING US FAIRLY QUIET, IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A STRONG 500MB LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THAT IS GOING TO DIG AND DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS SPAWNING A SFC
LOW OVER THE MID WEST, WHICH WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE EST, AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL HAVE
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT MODELS NO HAVE OVER NORTH
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, GIVING RISE TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPAWN A
SECOND SFC LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, WHICH WILL HELP TO
PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS IT DIGS, A THIRD LOW, MORE CLOSELY CONNECTED
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, SPC HAS NO
MENTION OF AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH, WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH THE BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO
BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED
AS THE FRONT DEVELOPS AND TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED..

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY FLOW. SOME SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS HAVING SOME
STRUGGLES REACHING APF WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME VARIABLE GUSTINESS
THERE.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. WITH THE WIND TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY, THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES. MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY INDICATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
VARYING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND 1 TO 4 IN THE
GULF, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY GOING TO 5 FEET AT TIMES IN THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  74  89 /  10  20  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  88 /  10  20  40  40
MIAMI            77  88  76  90 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           71  88  72  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011957
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT FOR THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING US FAIRLY QUIET, IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A STRONG 500MB LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THAT IS GOING TO DIG AND DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS SPAWNING A SFC
LOW OVER THE MID WEST, WHICH WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE EST, AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL HAVE
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT MODELS NO HAVE OVER NORTH
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, GIVING RISE TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPAWN A
SECOND SFC LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, WHICH WILL HELP TO
PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS IT DIGS, A THIRD LOW, MORE CLOSELY CONNECTED
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, SPC HAS NO
MENTION OF AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH, WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH THE BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO
BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED
AS THE FRONT DEVELOPS AND TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED..

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY FLOW. SOME SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS HAVING SOME
STRUGGLES REACHING APF WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME VARIABLE GUSTINESS
THERE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. WITH THE WIND TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY, THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES. MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY INDICATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
VARYING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND 1 TO 4 IN THE
GULF, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY GOING TO 5 FEET AT TIMES IN THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  74  89 /  10  20  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  88 /  10  20  40  40
MIAMI            77  88  76  90 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           71  88  72  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...02/RG




000
FXUS62 KTBW 011950
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CROSSES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE NOSE OF THE MAIN JETSTREAK
OVER OUR REGION. NORTHERN STREAM JET IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
PROXIMITY...CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE
MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. 01/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED
THESE WINDS ALOFT WELL...SHOWING A DEEP LAYER WEST FLOW ABOVE
700MB.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING AND
ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS
THAT WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANVIL BLOWOFF ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER FLOW.

SEA-BREEZE HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST AND WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THIS WEST-COAST SEA-BREEZE AND THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE SET UP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. MID-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
THE CUMULUS FIELD IN THIS REGION BECOMING A BIT MORE DEFINED.
ALTHOUGH...AS OF NOW...NOT SEEING ANYTHING ON RADAR AS THESE
COLUMNS ARE SHALLOW AND STILL TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG CAPPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWN WELL ON THE MORNING 12Z KTBW SOUNDING.
THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL HOLD BACK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE MOISTURE POOLING IS GREATEST ALONG THE
CONVERGING SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ML CAPE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT
TO BRIEFLY OVERCOME THIS CAPPING LAYER AND SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT STORMS AFTER 21Z. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
ALREADY WAY TO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION COMPARED TO
REALITY...SO UNFORTUNATELY CAN NOT USE THIS USUALLY RELIABLE
GUIDANCE TO HELP WITH THE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. FEEL THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR NOW. EXPECT A
FEW STORMS TO FINALLY BREAK THIS CAP WITHIN THE ZONE DESCRIBED
ABOVE...MOST LIKELY INITIATING BETWEEN 21-22Z...AND THEN LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LATE START TO THE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WOULD
ANTICIPATE THE CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TO LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST SUNSET. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE UNTIL 03Z...AND THEN ALLOW THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY REGION-WIDE. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ARE
QUITE LIKELY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT NEITHER THE SREF OR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING WE WILL HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
VIS ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LOW...WOULD AGREE WITH THE NWP. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM
TODAY. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAY BE THAT THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND HENCE A BIT LESS
HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...THERE DOES STILL SEEM TO BE
A HINT OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT APPEARS LESS DRAMATIC. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LATE DAY STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. INHERITED FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS IN
THIS ZONE...AND THEN TAPERS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO 10-20% AT THE
COAST. BASED ON THE EXTENT OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...DO NOT SEE
MUCH REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ANY CONVECTION ON MONDAY
WILL AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO PUSH 90 FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEACHES TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY EVENING EVERYONE!

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WINDS BECOME MORE SW AS SURFACE RIDGE
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (H5 TEMPS AROUND -12C) SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR
GIVING THIS FRONT THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SO STAY TUNED. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER...DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
FILTER IN TO THE PENINSULA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NO RAIN AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MID/UPPER 50S...LOW/MID 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN MODERATING LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD NOW IN
PLACE. LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG
THE COAST...AND WILL SEE THIS SHIFT REACH KPIE/KTPA IN NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE SEA- BREEZE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BETWEEN
20-00Z FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW...AND ADDED VCTS TO THESE TERMINALS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO MIGRATE CLOSER TO TAMPA BAY
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE DURING WEDNESDAY. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AWAY
FROM THE COAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  87  74  86 /  20  10  10  30
FMY  71  88  73  88 /  20  30  20  20
GIF  71  90  71  89 /  10  30  30  40
SRQ  72  83  72  84 /  10  10  10  20
BKV  68  88  68  87 /  20  20  20  30
SPG  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 011950
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CROSSES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE NOSE OF THE MAIN JETSTREAK
OVER OUR REGION. NORTHERN STREAM JET IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE
PROXIMITY...CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE
MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. 01/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED
THESE WINDS ALOFT WELL...SHOWING A DEEP LAYER WEST FLOW ABOVE
700MB.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING AND
ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS
THAT WE MAY SEE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANVIL BLOWOFF ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER FLOW.

SEA-BREEZE HAS FORMED ALONG THE COAST AND WE ARE NOW SEEING THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THIS WEST-COAST SEA-BREEZE AND THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE SET UP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
I-75 CORRIDOR. MID-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
THE CUMULUS FIELD IN THIS REGION BECOMING A BIT MORE DEFINED.
ALTHOUGH...AS OF NOW...NOT SEEING ANYTHING ON RADAR AS THESE
COLUMNS ARE SHALLOW AND STILL TRAPPED UNDERNEATH A STRONG CAPPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWN WELL ON THE MORNING 12Z KTBW SOUNDING.
THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL HOLD BACK MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...WHERE MOISTURE POOLING IS GREATEST ALONG THE
CONVERGING SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES...ML CAPE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT
TO BRIEFLY OVERCOME THIS CAPPING LAYER AND SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCT STORMS AFTER 21Z. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE
ALREADY WAY TO AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION COMPARED TO
REALITY...SO UNFORTUNATELY CAN NOT USE THIS USUALLY RELIABLE
GUIDANCE TO HELP WITH THE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS. FEEL THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION FOR NOW. EXPECT A
FEW STORMS TO FINALLY BREAK THIS CAP WITHIN THE ZONE DESCRIBED
ABOVE...MOST LIKELY INITIATING BETWEEN 21-22Z...AND THEN LINGER
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
TONIGHT...WITH THE LATE START TO THE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WOULD
ANTICIPATE THE CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TO LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS
PAST SUNSET. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE UNTIL 03Z...AND THEN ALLOW THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY REGION-WIDE. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ARE
QUITE LIKELY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT NEITHER THE SREF OR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING WE WILL HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
VIS ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LOW...WOULD AGREE WITH THE NWP. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM
TODAY. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAY BE THAT THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND HENCE A BIT LESS
HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...THERE DOES STILL SEEM TO BE
A HINT OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT APPEARS LESS DRAMATIC. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LATE DAY STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. INHERITED FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS IN
THIS ZONE...AND THEN TAPERS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO 10-20% AT THE
COAST. BASED ON THE EXTENT OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE...DO NOT SEE
MUCH REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. ANY CONVECTION ON MONDAY
WILL AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT UNTIL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO PUSH 90 FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEACHES TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ENJOY YOUR SUNDAY EVENING EVERYONE!

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WINDS BECOME MORE SW AS SURFACE RIDGE
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST. INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (H5 TEMPS AROUND -12C) SHOULD CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE OF AFTN SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG SEABREEZE/BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARM WITH MID TO UPPER 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH OUT
OF THE GREAT LAKES HELPING TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SE INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE CATALYST FOR
GIVING THIS FRONT THE PUSH IT NEEDS TO CLEAR OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SHORTWAVE...SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY EXIST...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
AS TO THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SO STAY TUNED. EITHER WAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT AND COOLER...DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR WILL
FILTER IN TO THE PENINSULA BEGINNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THU-SAT WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH NO RAIN AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BETWEEN UPPER 70S TO LOW/MID 80S FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS MID/UPPER 50S...LOW/MID 60S
CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BEGIN MODERATING LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
01/18Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD NOW IN
PLACE. LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG
THE COAST...AND WILL SEE THIS SHIFT REACH KPIE/KTPA IN NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE SEA- BREEZE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BETWEEN
20-00Z FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW...AND ADDED VCTS TO THESE TERMINALS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO MIGRATE CLOSER TO TAMPA BAY
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ANTICIPATED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AND WINDS REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT. ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS...THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE DURING WEDNESDAY. A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS ARRIVES ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT.

FOG POTENTIAL...PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING AWAY
FROM THE COAST...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  87  74  86 /  20  10  10  30
FMY  71  88  73  88 /  20  30  20  20
GIF  71  90  71  89 /  10  30  30  40
SRQ  72  83  72  84 /  10  10  10  20
BKV  68  88  68  87 /  20  20  20  30
SPG  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MCKAUGHAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 011924
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
324 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

At the upper levels, a trough was stretched from the Great Lakes
into the central Plains and then into the SW CONUS with multiple
waves in the flow with the overall pattern progressing little
tonight. A frontal boundary this afternoon was stretched from the MS
valley into eastern TX and with very slow movement, will continue to
remain west of the CWA through tonight. The line of thunderstorms
ahead of this front across LA, MS and AL are forecast to once again
diminish before reaching the CWA.

With the southerly flow at the surface ahead of the aforementioned
system, plenty of moisture is being pumped into the area and with
above normal temperatures it almost seems summer-like. Afternoon
convection has been driven off of this and hi-res models are once
again consistent with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the northern half of the CWA. Activity will diminish by late
tonight. Widespread severe storms are not expected, however some
storms could be strong with gusty winds and hail.

Low temperatures continue to remain well above average with most
areas only forecast to drop into the mid 60s overnight.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

An upper-level long wave trough will develop across the eastern
CONUS. At the surface, a a cold front will approach our forecast
area from the northwest Monday afternoon and evening, and move
slowly southeastward across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The highest PoPs (30-40%) on Monday afternoon will be across south
GA and AL, as this area will be closer to stronger forcing and
deeper moisture. Rain is likely across most of our forecast area
on Tuesday as the front moves through and deep layer moisture
peaks. With moderate CAPE (1500 J/kg), high surface dewpoints
(65-70), and marginal 0-6km bulk shear values (30 KT), there
could be some loosely- organized multi-cell clusters, as well as isolated
pulse severe storms Monday afternoon and Tuesday; but so far none
the CAMs are forecasting surrogate severe parameters which "jump
out" as being too worrisome. It will remain hot and humid, though
highs will "only" be in the mid 80s Tuesday afternoon because of
the clouds and rain. Highs Monday will be near 90. Lows each day
will be in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

April weather will return despite the calendar progressing through
early May. An anomalously-deep, upper-level long wave trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS Wednesday and Thursday. The
aforementioned surface cold front will exit southeast of our
forecast area on Wednesday, followed by somewhat cooler and much
drier air. The upper level height pattern over the CONUS will be
amplified through next weekend, with very slow progress of the
troughs and ridges. So even though deep-layer ridging (warming)
will begin next weekend, our forecast area will remain under the
subsidence side of the upper level ridge. Lows will be in the 50s,
even around 50 Thursday night. Highs will be in the mid to upper
70s Thursday and Friday, then mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon, with the exception of ECP with
MVFR cigs. The cig heights will continue to improve through the
afternoon though. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible at
the northern TAF sites through the evening, mainly DHN and ABY.

&&

.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Tuesday as a high pressure
system remains centered over the western Atlantic Ocean. A cold
front will move southeast across the marine area Tuesday and Tuesday
night, followed by increasing winds from the NW and higher seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected through the middle
of the week. Relative humidity values will drop below 30 percent
Thursday and Friday, then begin to increase again heading into the
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

For the first time in quite a while there were no rivers in "action
stage" across our forecast area. Storm total rainfall amounts
through Wednesday are around half an inch, though isolated amounts
up to 4 inches are possible. The expect lack of widespread heavy
rain means that the rivers will continue to subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  87  70  84  63 /  10  20  20  50  30
Panama City   69  81  72  78  65 /  10  10  20  50  20
Dothan        67  85  68  80  58 /  30  30  30  50  10
Albany        67  87  68  81  59 /  30  40  30  50  20
Valdosta      67  88  68  84  63 /  20  30  10  60  40
Cross City    67  87  68  84  67 /  10  10  10  30  30
Apalachicola  70  81  72  80  66 /  10  10  10  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Fournier




000
FXUS62 KMLB 011924
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
RAINFREE WX PATTERN FOR ONE MORE EVNG AS HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MAINTAINS AN E/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR THAT
WILL TAP A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE BAHAMAS. AS
ANTICIPATED...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MAKING
STEADY INLAND PROGRESS. NOT SO FOR THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
WHICH...AS OF MID AFTN...HAD YET TO DVLP. THIS SUGGESTS ANY SEA
BREEZE MERGER WILL OCCUR WELL WEST OF THE FL TURNPIKE...WHILE E/SE
FLOW THRU THE LOW LVLS KEEPS ANY DIURNAL PRECIP RESULTING FROM THE
MERGER PINNED OVER THE W PENINSULA. DIMINISHING SERLY SFC/LOW LVL
FLOW WILL GENERATE WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT...MON MRNG MINS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE U60S/L70S.

MONDAY...
BRISK ZONAL COMPONENT TO THE H50-H10 FLOW OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC TOWARD BERMUDA. AS IT
DOES...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO N FL. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE SERLY H100-H70 FLOW THAT
HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS LOW LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TAP A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON THE SRN BAHAMAS.

THE RESULTING TWO-FRONTED MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN WILL MODIFY THE
DRY AIR ENOUGH TO BRING PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.25"-1.50" RANGE BY
18Z MON...AND TO AROUND 1.5" BY 00Z TUE. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING SEAWARD...SFC/LOW LVL WINDS WILL TAKE ON A
SLIGHTLY MORE SRLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL SHIFT ANY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVNG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MERGER BACK TO THE E...WHILE W/SW FLOW THRU
THE H85-H50 STEERING LVL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWBACK PRECIP
ALONG THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO COASTS.

THERE REMAINS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H85-H30 LYR
THAT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO FULLY MODIFY...GFS SUGGESTING AVG LYR
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BTWN 10-15C THRU 18Z MON...BTWN 7-10C THRU 00Z
TUE...WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE POTENTIAL. WILL CAP POPS AT 30PCT
FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA NWD...20PCT FOR THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS SEABREEZE FORMATION AND INLAND PROPAGATION WILL
BE GREATER OVER THE SRN CWA...WHILE THE MORE SRLY H100-H70 FLOW
PLACES MUCH OF OKEECHOBEE CO IN THE SHADOW OF LAKE-O. MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TODAY...HIGHS ARND 90F ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SEA BREEZE
KEEPING COAST MAXES IN THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME ACTIVE EVENING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GENERATE ALONG A SEA BREEZE COLLISION FROM
WRN OKEECHOBEE/WRN OSCEOLA COUNTIES OVER METRO ORLANDO INTO VOLUSIA
COUNTY. MID LVL STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SOME
CONVECTION BACK TO THE EAST COAST BY LATE EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF
VERO BEACH. WILL CONFINE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

TUE-WED NGT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK IN THE
40-50 PCT RANGE TUE INCREASING TO 50-60 PCT ON WED AS A COOL FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUE AND TOWARD THE NRN PENINSULA ON
WED...AND DOWN THE PENINSULA WED NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SW-W FLOW WILL
INCREASE TUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING TWD THE MID-LWR MS VALLEY.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BY
LATE EVENING. DEEPER PREFRONTAL MOISTURE WED AND S/W DIGGING TWD THE
NE GULF MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS WE COULD SEE A MARGINAL STRAIGHT LINE
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH STORMS ON WED. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS INTO WED EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE SE FL
COAST BY THU MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
TUE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER STORM COVERAGE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL COOL INTO THE 60S LATE WED NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THU-SUN...UPPER PATTERN GREATLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS FROM THU
INTO WEEKEND AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOOTS N THRU THE CENTRAL U.S.
FOSTERING A TROUGH PLUNGING S OVER THE EAST U.S. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY THU WITH LOCAL POST FRONTAL DRYING...THEN REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF CONTINENTAL DRY AIR BY FRI WITH CONTINUED NW-N FLOW. PLEASANT
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MAX TEMPS DIAL BACK TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY THU-
SAT...WITH MIN TEMPS L/M60S THU WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS FINDING SOME
UPPER 50S FRI-SAT MORNINGS. HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY WILL
KEEP DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE TO END THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 02/18Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 02/02Z...E/SE 9-14KTS WITH OCNL SFC G18-22KTS.
BTWN 02/02Z-02/05Z...BCMG S/SE 3-7KTS. BTWN 02/12-02/15 BCMG S/SE
8-12KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: BTWN 02/09Z-02/13Z AREAS MVFR CIGS/LCL MVFR VSBYS IN
BR/STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...PERSISTENT GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SE BREEZE TO
CONTINUE AS HI PRES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DRIFTS TOWARD BERMUDA. BY
DAYBREAK MON...THE SERLY WINDS WILL HAVE PLACE FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THREE DAYS...MORE THAN ENOUGH TIME TO PUSH THE SHORT PD WIND CHOP
FROM THE BAHAMA SHADOW ACRS THE LCL ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY
TO ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS WITH SEAS 3-4FT AND DOMINANT WAVE PDS AOB
6SEC.

TUE-WED...SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS TUE WILL BECOME WESTERLY WED
AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WITH WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 34 KNOTS AS THE STORMS MOVE TWD THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR
SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THU-FRI...GUSTY NW-N FLOW IS EXPECTED THU INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT AND AGAIN BEHIND A REINFORCING DRY FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WX PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS HI PRES OVER THE W ATLC WORKS ITS WAY SEAWARD. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE...KEEPING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AOA 40PCT. S/SERLY SFC WINDS BLO 15MPH ON MON...BCMG S/SW
ON TUE AS A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGHER STORMS CHANCES EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND WED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THU-SAT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH MIN RHS AS LOW AS 30 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  70  87 /  10  30  30  50
MCO  71  90  70  90 /  10  30  30  40
MLB  71  86  71  89 /  10  30  30  50
VRB  69  86  72  88 /  10  30  30  50
LEE  71  90  71  87 /   0  30  30  40
SFB  70  89  71  90 /  10  30  30  40
ORL  71  89  72  89 /  10  30  30  40
FPR  70  86  71  90 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 011924
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
324 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

At the upper levels, a trough was stretched from the Great Lakes
into the central Plains and then into the SW CONUS with multiple
waves in the flow with the overall pattern progressing little
tonight. A frontal boundary this afternoon was stretched from the MS
valley into eastern TX and with very slow movement, will continue to
remain west of the CWA through tonight. The line of thunderstorms
ahead of this front across LA, MS and AL are forecast to once again
diminish before reaching the CWA.

With the southerly flow at the surface ahead of the aforementioned
system, plenty of moisture is being pumped into the area and with
above normal temperatures it almost seems summer-like. Afternoon
convection has been driven off of this and hi-res models are once
again consistent with the best chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the northern half of the CWA. Activity will diminish by late
tonight. Widespread severe storms are not expected, however some
storms could be strong with gusty winds and hail.

Low temperatures continue to remain well above average with most
areas only forecast to drop into the mid 60s overnight.


.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

An upper-level long wave trough will develop across the eastern
CONUS. At the surface, a a cold front will approach our forecast
area from the northwest Monday afternoon and evening, and move
slowly southeastward across the region Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The highest PoPs (30-40%) on Monday afternoon will be across south
GA and AL, as this area will be closer to stronger forcing and
deeper moisture. Rain is likely across most of our forecast area
on Tuesday as the front moves through and deep layer moisture
peaks. With moderate CAPE (1500 J/kg), high surface dewpoints
(65-70), and marginal 0-6km bulk shear values (30 KT), there
could be some loosely- organized multi-cell clusters, as well as isolated
pulse severe storms Monday afternoon and Tuesday; but so far none
the CAMs are forecasting surrogate severe parameters which "jump
out" as being too worrisome. It will remain hot and humid, though
highs will "only" be in the mid 80s Tuesday afternoon because of
the clouds and rain. Highs Monday will be near 90. Lows each day
will be in the upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

April weather will return despite the calendar progressing through
early May. An anomalously-deep, upper-level long wave trough will
develop over the eastern CONUS Wednesday and Thursday. The
aforementioned surface cold front will exit southeast of our
forecast area on Wednesday, followed by somewhat cooler and much
drier air. The upper level height pattern over the CONUS will be
amplified through next weekend, with very slow progress of the
troughs and ridges. So even though deep-layer ridging (warming)
will begin next weekend, our forecast area will remain under the
subsidence side of the upper level ridge. Lows will be in the 50s,
even around 50 Thursday night. Highs will be in the mid to upper
70s Thursday and Friday, then mid 80s Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon, with the exception of ECP with
MVFR cigs. The cig heights will continue to improve through the
afternoon though. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible at
the northern TAF sites through the evening, mainly DHN and ABY.

&&

.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Tuesday as a high pressure
system remains centered over the western Atlantic Ocean. A cold
front will move southeast across the marine area Tuesday and Tuesday
night, followed by increasing winds from the NW and higher seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected through the middle
of the week. Relative humidity values will drop below 30 percent
Thursday and Friday, then begin to increase again heading into the
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

For the first time in quite a while there were no rivers in "action
stage" across our forecast area. Storm total rainfall amounts
through Wednesday are around half an inch, though isolated amounts
up to 4 inches are possible. The expect lack of widespread heavy
rain means that the rivers will continue to subside.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   67  87  70  84  63 /  10  20  20  50  30
Panama City   69  81  72  78  65 /  10  10  20  50  20
Dothan        67  85  68  80  58 /  30  30  30  50  10
Albany        67  87  68  81  59 /  30  40  30  50  20
Valdosta      67  88  68  84  63 /  20  30  10  60  40
Cross City    67  87  68  84  67 /  10  10  10  30  30
Apalachicola  70  81  72  80  66 /  10  10  10  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fieux
SHORT TERM...Fournier
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...Fournier
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Fournier




000
FXUS62 KMLB 011924
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
324 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
RAINFREE WX PATTERN FOR ONE MORE EVNG AS HI PRES CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MAINTAINS AN E/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-H70 LYR THAT
WILL TAP A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE BAHAMAS. AS
ANTICIPATED...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MAKING
STEADY INLAND PROGRESS. NOT SO FOR THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
WHICH...AS OF MID AFTN...HAD YET TO DVLP. THIS SUGGESTS ANY SEA
BREEZE MERGER WILL OCCUR WELL WEST OF THE FL TURNPIKE...WHILE E/SE
FLOW THRU THE LOW LVLS KEEPS ANY DIURNAL PRECIP RESULTING FROM THE
MERGER PINNED OVER THE W PENINSULA. DIMINISHING SERLY SFC/LOW LVL
FLOW WILL GENERATE WARM TEMPS OVERNIGHT...MON MRNG MINS BOTTOMING
OUT IN THE U60S/L70S.

MONDAY...
BRISK ZONAL COMPONENT TO THE H50-H10 FLOW OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC TOWARD BERMUDA. AS IT
DOES...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL WORK ITS WAY
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE FILTERING INTO N FL. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE SERLY H100-H70 FLOW THAT
HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS LOW LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TAP A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ENCROACHING ON THE SRN BAHAMAS.

THE RESULTING TWO-FRONTED MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN WILL MODIFY THE
DRY AIR ENOUGH TO BRING PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.25"-1.50" RANGE BY
18Z MON...AND TO AROUND 1.5" BY 00Z TUE. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING SEAWARD...SFC/LOW LVL WINDS WILL TAKE ON A
SLIGHTLY MORE SRLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL SHIFT ANY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVNG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MERGER BACK TO THE E...WHILE W/SW FLOW THRU
THE H85-H50 STEERING LVL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWBACK PRECIP
ALONG THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO COASTS.

THERE REMAINS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H85-H30 LYR
THAT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO FULLY MODIFY...GFS SUGGESTING AVG LYR
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BTWN 10-15C THRU 18Z MON...BTWN 7-10C THRU 00Z
TUE...WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE POTENTIAL. WILL CAP POPS AT 30PCT
FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA NWD...20PCT FOR THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS SEABREEZE FORMATION AND INLAND PROPAGATION WILL
BE GREATER OVER THE SRN CWA...WHILE THE MORE SRLY H100-H70 FLOW
PLACES MUCH OF OKEECHOBEE CO IN THE SHADOW OF LAKE-O. MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TODAY...HIGHS ARND 90F ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SEA BREEZE
KEEPING COAST MAXES IN THE MID 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE SOME ACTIVE EVENING
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GENERATE ALONG A SEA BREEZE COLLISION FROM
WRN OKEECHOBEE/WRN OSCEOLA COUNTIES OVER METRO ORLANDO INTO VOLUSIA
COUNTY. MID LVL STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SOME
CONVECTION BACK TO THE EAST COAST BY LATE EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF
VERO BEACH. WILL CONFINE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

TUE-WED NGT...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FOR MID WEEK IN THE
40-50 PCT RANGE TUE INCREASING TO 50-60 PCT ON WED AS A COOL FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH TUE AND TOWARD THE NRN PENINSULA ON
WED...AND DOWN THE PENINSULA WED NIGHT. DEEP LAYER SW-W FLOW WILL
INCREASE TUE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DIGGING TWD THE MID-LWR MS VALLEY.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL MOVE OUT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BY
LATE EVENING. DEEPER PREFRONTAL MOISTURE WED AND S/W DIGGING TWD THE
NE GULF MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS WE COULD SEE A MARGINAL STRAIGHT LINE
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WITH STORMS ON WED. CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS INTO WED EVENING BEFORE PUSHING OFF THE SE FL
COAST BY THU MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
TUE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WED WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER STORM COVERAGE. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WILL COOL INTO THE 60S LATE WED NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

THU-SUN...UPPER PATTERN GREATLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS FROM THU
INTO WEEKEND AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOOTS N THRU THE CENTRAL U.S.
FOSTERING A TROUGH PLUNGING S OVER THE EAST U.S. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY THU WITH LOCAL POST FRONTAL DRYING...THEN REINFORCED WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF CONTINENTAL DRY AIR BY FRI WITH CONTINUED NW-N FLOW. PLEASANT
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS MAX TEMPS DIAL BACK TO LOWER 80S EACH DAY THU-
SAT...WITH MIN TEMPS L/M60S THU WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS FINDING SOME
UPPER 50S FRI-SAT MORNINGS. HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA SUNDAY WILL
KEEP DRY WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE TO END THE WEEKEND WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 02/18Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 02/02Z...E/SE 9-14KTS WITH OCNL SFC G18-22KTS.
BTWN 02/02Z-02/05Z...BCMG S/SE 3-7KTS. BTWN 02/12-02/15 BCMG S/SE
8-12KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: BTWN 02/09Z-02/13Z AREAS MVFR CIGS/LCL MVFR VSBYS IN
BR/STATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...PERSISTENT GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SE BREEZE TO
CONTINUE AS HI PRES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST DRIFTS TOWARD BERMUDA. BY
DAYBREAK MON...THE SERLY WINDS WILL HAVE PLACE FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THREE DAYS...MORE THAN ENOUGH TIME TO PUSH THE SHORT PD WIND CHOP
FROM THE BAHAMA SHADOW ACRS THE LCL ATLC. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY
TO ROUGH SEA CONDITIONS WITH SEAS 3-4FT AND DOMINANT WAVE PDS AOB
6SEC.

TUE-WED...SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 10-15 KNOTS TUE WILL BECOME WESTERLY WED
AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS WED NIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT NEAR SHORE TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE TUE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WED AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE AREA. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WITH WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 34 KNOTS AS THE STORMS MOVE TWD THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR
SHORE WATERS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THU-FRI...GUSTY NW-N FLOW IS EXPECTED THU INTO FRIDAY BEHIND THE
INITIAL FRONT AND AGAIN BEHIND A REINFORCING DRY FRONT ON FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6 FT OFFSHORE AND POSSIBLY HIGHER IN THE GULF
STREAM LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WX PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK
AS HI PRES OVER THE W ATLC WORKS ITS WAY SEAWARD. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE...KEEPING AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AOA 40PCT. S/SERLY SFC WINDS BLO 15MPH ON MON...BCMG S/SW
ON TUE AS A NEW FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH.

HIGHER STORMS CHANCES EXPECTED TUE AFTERNOON AND WED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THU-SAT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH MIN RHS AS LOW AS 30 PCT ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  70  87 /  10  30  30  50
MCO  71  90  70  90 /  10  30  30  40
MLB  71  86  71  89 /  10  30  30  50
VRB  69  86  72  88 /  10  30  30  50
LEE  71  90  71  87 /   0  30  30  40
SFB  70  89  71  90 /  10  30  30  40
ORL  71  89  72  89 /  10  30  30  40
FPR  70  86  71  90 /  10  20  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KKEY 011859
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
259 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND ADDED THUNDER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...REDUCED AIR AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
FOR THE THURSDAY-SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- DESPITE MODERATE-FRESH BREEZES
PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY...AIR TEMPERATURES JUMPED INTO THE MID
80S...AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE UP OVER 70F. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL. BREEZES
FINALLY HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- ONE MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SURGE IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS SLACKEN WITH THE ONSET OF A WEAKER
PRESSURE PATTERN. GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION MID-WEEK
OF A STRONGER/LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH FOR A FEW RUNS NOW...SO WE HAVE
INDICATED A MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER PERIOD DURING THE WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...HIGHER POPS...SKY COVER...THUNDER.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
HAWK CHANNEL...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
BREEZES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN...WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE
PATTERN AND LIGHTER BREEZES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE
IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY... WITH BREEZES
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND FRESHENING AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. &&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 02/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  85  78  86 / -  -  10 10
MARATHON  78  88  78  88 / -  -  10 10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KJAX 011812
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
212 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...WARM WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUE...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

MEAN LAYER 1000-500 MB RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL
SHIFT FARTHER SE THROUGH MONDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EAST
FROM THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THE HIGHEST DIURNALLY ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE GA THIS
AFTN/EVENING...THEN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS MON HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
WILL EDGE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH BUT REMAIN GENERALLY NORTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR MON AFTN/EVENING. BOTH SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INLAND TODAY WITH A LATE AFTN/EVENING MERGER ACROSS THE FL
INTERIOR...THEN A STRONGER SW STEERING FLOW MON WILL BRING A MORE
DOMINANT WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND MERGER FARTHER EAST BETWEEN THE
HIGHWAY 301 AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN MON AFTN/EVENING.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 INLAND AND COOLER MID 80S ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE. MUGGY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN/COAST WITH SOME PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POTENTIAL INLAND EARLY
MON MORNING UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

MONDAY NIGHT LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GET PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA. SEABREEZE
COLLISION ALONG THE U.S. HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES TUESDAY...ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...UPPER DIFFLUENCE...AND WEST COAST
SEABREEZE AND MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG AND PRDUCE STRONG AND GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL. HAVE HIGHEST POPS (KIKELY) ACROSS SE GA WHERE
DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE. SPC HAS THAT AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WX ON DAY 3 (TUESDAY).

...LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF ERN CONUS
TROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY FEATURING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING E AND OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
EXITING TO THE E DURING THE DAY. DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W AND NW WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY
COMING TO AN END WED AFTN/EVENING AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX PATTERN EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT AS
ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY. SFC
HIGH PRES OVER THE SRN CONUS VERY GRADUALLY MOVES EWD TOWARD OUR
AREA. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING SSE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. CERTAINLY SEE A
BREAK FROM THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS NOW WITH CONSENSUS HIGHS NEAR 80
AND LOWS IN THE 50S. IF SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VERIFIES...WE COULD
ACTUALLY CHALLENGE RECORD LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO
MID 40S. OCNL BREEZY NW TO W WINDS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2-3 KFT ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN AS SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND AFFECTING CRG....JAX...VQQ...BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS PREVAILING. AFTN/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS MOST PROBABLE AT SSI AND GNV WHERE VCSH WAS
ADVERTISED. BREEZY SSE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
THEN DECREASE TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT LESS THAN 10 KTS. LOW
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE AND INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR CIGS. ELEVATED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF
15 KTS AT 925 MB AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THEN PUSH SOUTH
OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER OFFSHORE FLOW
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. PERIODS OF EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS THIS WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND MON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  68  88  67  84 /  30  40  40  60
SSI  71  82  71  83 /  10  30  30  60
JAX  70  88  68  86 /  10  30  30  50
SGJ  71  85  70  85 /  10  20  30  40
GNV  68  89  67  86 /  20  20  20  40
OCF  69  89  67  86 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ENYEDI/PETERSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY FLOW. SOME SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS HAVING SOME
STUGGLES REACHING APF WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME VARIABLE GUSTINESS
THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...
A QUIET SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A LOW LEVEL FEATURE
MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS ENCOURAGED SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE, AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AND
DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATER TODAY AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CONTINUES TO
HOLD...THOUGH CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS APPEAR MINIMAL WITH
RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS PER THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN TRANSMITTED TO ADJUST SHOWER WORDING
ACROSS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL FEATURE MOVING WEST AROUND THE
BASE OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING IS BRINGING THE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE
OR LIGHT SHOWER IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND EAST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST. OVERALL HOWEVER, EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

EXPECT TO SEE BOTH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE WAVE HELPING TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A STORM OR TWO OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WITH THE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE COLLISION.

AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

MON-TUES...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN DRIVE AN EXPANSIVE FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO THURSDAY.

THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUES, WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING SOUTHERLY ON MON AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUES.
SHIFT IN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST. BOTH SEA BREEZES WILL FORM DURING THE AFTERNOONS PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR. STEERING FLOW WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR ON MONDAY, WITH THE INCREASING SW FLOW FOCUSING ACTIVITY
MORE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

WEDNESDAY ONWARDS...SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER EAST
COAST TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, AS A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MORE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, WHICH WILL HELP WING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES.

FOR BOTH MODELS HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 100-
110KT UPPER LEVEL JET CROSS THE STATE THAT AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
700MB WINDS 30-40KTS MAY BRING A FEW STRONGER STORMS, BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A SECONDARY FRONT
CROSSES THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY, AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER, WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
ON TUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS BOTH MON AND TUES, BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOONS. FRONT
DROPS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
WEEK GENERALLY 10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF 15-20KTS SUN AND
MON. SEAS 2-3FT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND WATERWAYS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MON AND TUES. BEST STORM CHANCES OF THE WEEK
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK.

ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  91 /  10  20  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  86  77  90 /  10  20  20  40
MIAMI            76  87  76  90 /  10  20  20  40
NAPLES           71  88  72  85 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...02/RAG




000
FXUS62 KTBW 011728
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
128 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

AVIATION...
01/18Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS FIELD NOW IN
PLACE. LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS BEGINNING TO SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG
THE COAST...AND WILL SEE THIS SHIFT REACH KPIE/KTPA IN NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE SEA- BREEZE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SHOWER BETWEEN
20-00Z FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW...AND ADDED VCTS TO THESE TERMINALS.
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO MIGRATE CLOSER TO TAMPA BAY
TERMINALS AFTER 00Z...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN CURRENT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CROSSES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE NOSE OF THE MAIN JETSTREAK
OVER OUR REGION. NORTHERN STREAM JET IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE NORTH...CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE
MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. 01/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED
THESE WINDS ALOFT WELL...SHOWING A DEEP LAYER WEST FLOW ABOVE
700MB.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING AND
ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS
THAT WE MAY SEE IS AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH ANVIL BLOWOFF
ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER FLOW.

SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S...TOWARD AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 90 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WINDS NEAR THE COAST
ONSHORE...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE WILL RACE ACROSS THE
STATE AND SET UP THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LIKELY THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST SAMPLED IN THE
KTBW SOUNDING COLUMN THIS MORNING...IS THE DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING INVERSION SEEN BETWEEN 700-625MB. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLE FOR PARCELS TO OVERCOME TODAY IN THE PROCESS
OF CONVECTION. ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME MIXING TO OCCUR UP TO A
SURFACE TEMP AROUND 90 STILL HAS TROUBLE OVERCOMING THIS CAP.
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE MANY OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE MEMBERS
UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS CAP...AND HAVE NOTICED THE
LATEST HRRR BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A MORE DIFFICULT TIME
BREAKING THE CAP INTO FREE CONVECTION COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS
THAT WERE NOT UTILIZING THIS REAL-TIME SOUNDING DATA.

THIS CAP WILL CERTAINLY DELAY THE ONSET OF ANY CONVECTION AS WE
WILL NEED TO REACH ABSOLUTE PEAK HEATING IF PARCELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE ANY CHANCE OF GETTING BY THIS INVERSION. LIKELY WE WILL
REQUIRE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY MOISTURE POOLING TO REACH THE CAPE NEEDED
FOR STORMS. THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A LATE START...BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND OCCUR IN A FAIRLY
NARROW ZONE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-75.

TONIGHT...
WITH THE LATE START TO ANY CONVECTION...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TO LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET.
WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS FAVORED
CONVERGENCE ZONE UNTIL 03Z...AND THEN ALLOW THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY REGION-WIDE. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ARE QUITE
LIKELY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT NEITHER THE SREF OR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING WE WILL HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
VIS ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LOW...WOULD AGREE WITH THE NWP. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM
TODAY. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAY BE THAT THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND HENCE A BIT LESS
HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...THERE DOES STILL SEEM TO BE
A HINT OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT APPEARS LESS DRAMATIC. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LATE DAY STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. INHERITED FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS IN
THIS ZONE...AND THEN TAPERS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO 10-20% AT THE
COAST. BASED ON THE EARLIER MEMBERS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE TO
ARRIVE...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL
WAIT FOR ALL THE 12Z CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE BEFORE
MAKING A FINAL FORECAST DECISION ON TOMORROW. ANY CONVECTION ON
MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO PUSH 90 FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEACHES TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ENJOY THE REMAINDER OF YOUR SUNDAY EVERYONE!

MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  88  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FMY  71  89  72  88 /  20  40  20  20
GIF  71  91  71  88 /  20  30  30  40
SRQ  72  85  72  83 /  10  10  10  20
BKV  68  88  67  87 /  10  20  20  30
SPG  74  86  74  85 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTAE 011722
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
122 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Monday]...

Mainly VFR conditions this afternoon, with the exception of ECP
with MVFR cigs. The cig heights will continue to improve through
the afternoon though. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
possible at the northern TAF sites through the evening, mainly DHN
and ABY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [1016 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large, positively tilted upper level
trough stretching from the southwest states northeastward to the
Great Lakes. Ridging prevails off the southeast coast with light
southerly 1000-700 mb mean winds. This has been providing a moist
boundary layer with relatively high dewpoints for this time of year
and isolated to scattered afternoon convection, which is more
typical of summertime. For today, there is not much change in the
large scale pattern expected with the latest ensemble of CAM
guidance placing isolated to scattered convection (20-30 percent
PoPs) across the northern half of the area this afternoon. Afternoon
high temperatures will generally range from 85 to 90 across the
area, except a couple of degrees cooler right along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

An upper level trough and associated cold front will advance
eastward with the front pushing into and across our FA Monday
night and Tuesday. The deepest moisture will remain to the north
and west of the Tri-state area Monday so kept PoPs mostly in the
chance range (30-40%); highest north. For Tuesday, the ensemble of
CAMS increase PoPs to likely and categorical for a large portion
of our FL and GA zones. While not as robust, MOS PoPs have trended
higher this run. Will show PoPs mostly in the good chance to
likely range (50-60%) with the highest across our FL and southern
GA zones where the front should interact with the seabreeze. High
temps will range from mid 80s west to around 90 east Monday and
around 80 west to mid 80s east on Tuesday. Lows both nights in the
mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The long wave trough over the eastern CONUS will deepen as a
strong upper low dives southeastward from just north of the Great
Lakes Tuesday night to the mid-Atlantic states Thursday. The low
is forecast to become cutoff and spin over or just east of the
Delmarva Peninsula through the next weekend setting up an Omega
Block pattern across the CONUS. As this pattern change evolves,
the aforementioned surface front will push well to our south with
rain ending from west to east on Wednesday. A secondary dry cold
front will push down from the north and through the region
Wednesday night/Thursday. The remainder of the extended period
will be dry with near to just below seasonal temps with deep
northwest flow in place. Highs will range from the upper 70s to
lower 80s through Saturday and then the lower to mid 80s Sunday.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s through Friday night and then mid to
upper 50s Saturday night.


.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Monday before shifting
to the west then northwest Tuesday and Tuesday night as a cold
front passes through the local waters. A secondary cold front
will approach and push through the eastern Gulf Wednesday and
Thursday with winds and possibly seas elevating to cautionary
levels.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level later tonight or Sunday. Rainfall
amounts for the upcoming week are not expected to be particularly
heavy or widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   66  87  69  84  63 /  10  30  20  60  40
Panama City   70  80  71  79  65 /  10  20  20  60  30
Dothan        66  85  67  80  59 /  30  40  30  50  30
Albany        67  87  67  82  60 /  30  40  30  50  30
Valdosta      67  90  68  85  63 /  20  40  30  60  40
Cross City    67  87  69  85  66 /  10  30  20  40  40
Apalachicola  69  81  71  80  66 /  10  20  20  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Bay-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...Fieux
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...DVD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 011550
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1150 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
15Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOUTHERN STREAM JET CROSSES OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE NOSE OF THE MAIN JETSTREAK
OVER OUR REGION. NORTHERN STREAM JET IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE PROXIMITY
TO THE NORTH...CROSSING OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE
MID MS AND OHIO VALLEYS. 01/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SAMPLED
THESE WINDS ALOFT WELL...SHOWING A DEEP LAYER WEST FLOW ABOVE
700MB.

AT THE SURFACE...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TO
THE WEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A
COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING AND
ONGOING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...BUT WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
REMOVED FROM OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS
THAT WE MAY SEE IS AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH ANVIL BLOWOFF
ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM IN THE SYNOPTIC UPPER FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
BENIGN WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S...TOWARD AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE VICINITY OF 90 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING WILL EVENTUALLY VEER WINDS NEAR THE COAST
ONSHORE...MAINLY AFTER 18Z. WITH THE SYNOPTIC FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SEA-BREEZE WILL RACE ACROSS THE
STATE AND SET UP THE MAIN CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA-BREEZE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

LIKELY THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE FOR OUR FORECAST SAMPLED IN THE
KTBW SOUNDING COLUMN THIS MORNING...IS THE DEFINED
SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING INVERSION SEEN BETWEEN 700-625MB. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLE FOR PARCELS TO OVERCOME TODAY IN THE PROCESS
OF CONVECTION. ALLOWING FOR DAYTIME MIXING TO OCCUR UP TO A
SURFACE TEMP AROUND 90 STILL HAS TROUBLE OVERCOMING THIS CAP.
CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKE MANY OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE MEMBERS
UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THIS CAP...AND HAVE NOTICED THE
LATEST HRRR BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A MORE DIFFICULT TIME
BREAKING THE CAP INTO FREE CONVECTION COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS
THAT WERE NOT UTILIZING THIS REAL-TIME SOUNDING DATA.

THIS CAP WILL CERTAINLY DELAY THE ONSET OF ANY CONVECTION AS WE
WILL NEED TO REACH ABSOLUTE PEAK HEATING IF PARCELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE ANY CHANCE OF GETTING BY THIS INVERSION. LIKELY WE WILL
REQUIRE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY MOISTURE POOLING TO REACH THE CAPE NEEDED
FOR STORMS. THEREFORE...STORMS SHOULD HAVE A LATE START...BE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE...AND OCCUR IN A FAIRLY
NARROW ZONE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF I-75.

TONIGHT...
WITH THE LATE START TO ANY CONVECTION...WOULD ANTICIPATE THE
CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP TO LINGERING FOR A FEW HOURS PAST SUNSET.
WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS FAVORED
CONVERGENCE ZONE UNTIL 03Z...AND THEN ALLOW THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT TO BE DRY REGION-WIDE. A FEW POCKETS OF FOG ARE QUITE
LIKELY IN THE HOURS BEFORE DAWN...BUT NEITHER THE SREF OR
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING WE WILL HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT
VIS ISSUES FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. GIVEN THAT THE COVERAGE OF
RAINFALL TODAY SHOULD BE LOW...WOULD AGREE WITH THE NWP. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM WITH UPPER 60S INLAND
AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM
TODAY. THE MOST INFLUENTIAL DIFFERENCE MAY BE THAT THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AND HENCE A BIT LESS
HOSTILE TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...THERE DOES STILL SEEM TO BE
A HINT OF THE CAPPING INVERSION IN THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS...BUT AT
LEAST FOR NOW...IT APPEARS LESS DRAMATIC. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF LATE DAY STORMS
ACROSS THE SAME FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONE RUNNING ALONG AND JUST
EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. INHERITED FORECAST HAS 30-40% POPS IN
THIS ZONE...AND THEN TAPERS RAIN CHANCES BACK TO 10-20% AT THE
COAST. BASED ON THE EARLIER MEMBERS OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE CYCLE TO
ARRIVE...DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WILL
WAIT FOR ALL THE 12Z CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE BEFORE
MAKING A FINAL FORECAST DECISION ON TOMORROW. ANY CONVECTION ON
MONDAY WILL AGAIN BE SUPPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT UNTIL
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...WHICH SHOULD AGAIN ALLOW
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO PUSH 90 FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. AT THE BEACHES TEMPS HOLD IN THE 80S WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

ENJOY THE REMAINDER OF YOUR SUNDAY EVERYONE!

&&

.AVIATION...
01/12Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW TO SCT CU AND CI CLOUDS.
LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS CURRENTLY...SHIFTING TO ONSHORE ALONG THE
COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL FOR A
SHOWER AFTER 19Z FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW...HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES EVEN
FOR THESE TERMINALS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE MENTION IN CURRENT TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE
WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTH BEHIND
THIS FRONT AND MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  88  74 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  89  71  89  72 /  20  20  40  20
GIF  91  71  91  71 /  20  20  30  30
SRQ  84  72  85  72 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  90  68  88  67 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  87  74  86  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011441 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1041 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
A QUIET SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A LOW LEVEL FEATURE
MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS ENCOURAGED SOME
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL FEATURE, AVAILABLE MOISTURE, AND
DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
LATER TODAY AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY CONTINUES TO
HOLD...THOUGH CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS APPEAR MINIMAL WITH
RELATIVELY WARM AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS PER THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING.
UPDATED ZONES HAVE BEEN TRANSMITTED TO ADJUST SHOWER WORDING
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TERMINALS. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH APF TODAY. MORNING SHOWERS AND
LOW CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER A TERMINAL TO MVFR. OTHERWISE,
EXPECTING A DRY DAY AT THE SITES.

02/RAG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL FEATURE MOVING WEST AROUND THE
BASE OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING IS BRINGING THE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE
OR LIGHT SHOWER IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND EAST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST. OVERALL HOWEVER, EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

EXPECT TO SEE BOTH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE WAVE HELPING TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A STORM OR TWO OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WITH THE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE COLLISION.

AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

MON-TUES...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN DRIVE AN EXPANSIVE FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO THURSDAY.

THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUES, WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING SOUTHERLY ON MON AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUES.
SHIFT IN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST. BOTH SEA BREEZES WILL FORM DURING THE AFTERNOONS PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR. STEERING FLOW WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR ON MONDAY, WITH THE INCREASING SW FLOW FOCUSING ACTIVITY
MORE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

WEDNESDAY ONWARDS...SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER EAST
COAST TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, AS A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MORE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, WHICH WILL HELP WING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES.

FOR BOTH MODELS HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 100-
110KT UPPER LEVEL JET CROSS THE STATE THAT AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
700MB WINDS 30-40KTS MAY BRING A FEW STRONGER STORMS, BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A SECONDARY FRONT
CROSSES THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY, AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER, WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
ON TUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS BOTH MON AND TUES, BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOONS. FRONT
DROPS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
WEEK GENERALLY 10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF 15-20KTS SUN AND
MON. SEAS 2-3FT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND WATERWAYS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MON AND TUES. BEST STORM CHANCES OF THE WEEK
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK.

ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  76  87  74 /  20  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  77  86  77 /  20  10  20  20
MIAMI            87  76  87  76 /  20  10  20  20
NAPLES           89  71  88  72 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...02/RAG




000
FXUS62 KKEY 011433
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1033 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
CHANGES TO FORECAST -- FIRST PERIOD WAS UPDATED FOR WINDS AND WAVE
HEIGHTS. STRONGER BREEZES HAVE PERSISTED THIS MORNING IN MANY
ZONES...AND MAY NOT DIMINISH MUCH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS A
WEAKENING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS OFFSET BY LOWERING
PRESSURES OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WERE ALSO INTRODUCED TO MARINE ZONES ADJACENT TO MIDDLE AND UPPER
KEYS WHERE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG CLOUD LINES.

CURRENT SITUATION AND ANALYSIS -- AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 80S ALREADY WITH FULL MAY SUN AND STIFF SOUTHEAST
BREEZES. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW 70F SUGGEST
INCOMING AIR TRAJECTORIES STILL ARE ROOTED SOMEWHERE IN OLD
CONTINENTAL AIR. THE KEY WEST MORNING RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION
INDICATED AN ATMOSPHERE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WERE PRESENT IN THE
TURBULENT/WELL-MIXED LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CELLS. INDEED WE HAVE SEEN ISOLATED SHOWERS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA THIS
MORNING...MAINLY WHERE MESOSCALE CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED IN
TRANSIENT CUMULUS CLOUD LINES WITHIN LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW.

PROGNOSTIC OVERVIEW -- WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
NORTH ATLANTIC LIKELY WILL BE OFFSET BY LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE
WESTERN GULF BASIN...AND THE FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZES LIKELY WILL
PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC GRADIENT FLOW WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN HAWK CHANNEL AND THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. A HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINTAINING FRESH EAST TO
SOUTHEAST BREEZES. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL WEAKEN SLOWLY MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTH
WILL RESULT IN A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN WITH DIMINISHING BREEZES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 02/15Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KTAE 011416
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1016 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

Hi-res models are still consistent with the best chance of showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon across the northern portion of
the CWA with some of this activity spreading into the western
portion initially. Given the consistency and coverage expected,
have made a slight increase in the PoPs for this afternoon.
Although convection is possible earlier, the most likely timing of
the thunderstorms will be from 2PM to 9PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [608 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large, positively tilted upper level
trough stretching from the southwest states northeastward to the
Great Lakes. Ridging prevails off the southeast coast with light
southerly 1000-700 mb mean winds. This has been providing a moist
boundary layer with relatively high dewpoints for this time of year
and isolated to scattered afternoon convection, which is more
typical of summertime. For today, there is not much change in the
large scale pattern expected with the latest ensemble of CAM
guidance placing isolated to scattered convection (20-30 percent
PoPs) across the northern half of the area this afternoon. Afternoon
high temperatures will generally range from 85 to 90 across the
area, except a couple of degrees cooler right along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

An upper level trough and associated cold front will advance
eastward with the front pushing into and across our FA Monday
night and Tuesday. The deepest moisture will remain to the north
and west of the Tri-state area Monday so kept PoPs mostly in the
chance range (30-40%); highest north. For Tuesday, the ensemble of
CAMS increase PoPs to likely and categorical for a large portion
of our FL and GA zones. While not as robust, MOS PoPs have trended
higher this run. Will show PoPs mostly in the good chance to
likely range (50-60%) with the highest across our FL and southern
GA zones where the front should interact with the seabreeze. High
temps will range from mid 80s west to around 90 east Monday and
around 80 west to mid 80s east on Tuesday. Lows both nights in the
mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The long wave trough over the eastern CONUS will deepen as a
strong upper low dives southeastward from just north of the Great
Lakes Tuesday night to the mid-Atlantic states Thursday. The low
is forecast to become cutoff and spin over or just east of the
Delmarva Peninsula through the next weekend setting up an Omega
Block pattern across the CONUS. As this pattern change evolves,
the aforementioned surface front will push well to our south with
rain ending from west to east on Wednesday. A secondary dry cold
front will push down from the north and through the region
Wednesday night/Thursday. The remainder of the extended period
will be dry with near to just below seasonal temps with deep
northwest flow in place. Highs will range from the upper 70s to
lower 80s through Saturday and then the lower to mid 80s Sunday.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s through Friday night and then mid to
upper 50s Saturday night.


.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Monday] Patchy fog across the area is expected to
lift between 13-14z with the greatest impact around ECP where
LIFR conditions have been observed. VFR will return after any
remaining fog lifts this morning. Later this afternoon, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible around DHN and ABY.


.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Monday before shifting
to the west then northwest Tuesday and Tuesday night as a cold
front passes through the local waters. A secondary cold front
will approach and push through the eastern Gulf Wednesday and
Thursday with winds and possibly seas elevating to cautionary
levels.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level later tonight or Sunday. Rainfall
amounts for the upcoming week are not expected to be particularly
heavy or widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  66  87  69  84 /  10  20  30  20  60
Panama City   81  70  80  71  79 /  20  10  20  20  60
Dothan        86  66  85  67  80 /  40  20  40  30  50
Albany        87  67  87  67  82 /  40  30  40  30  50
Valdosta      89  67  90  68  85 /  20  20  40  30  60
Cross City    87  67  87  69  85 /  10  10  30  20  40
Apalachicola  82  69  81  71  80 /  10  10  20  20  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Fieux
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fournier




000
FXUS62 KMLB 011340
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

HI PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE W ATLC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL...GENERATING A STEADY S/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-
H70 LYR. MORNING RAOBS SHOW A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH PWAT
VALUES ARND 1.00" OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...INCREASING TO 1.00"-
1.25" OVER S FL. MID LYR ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK H85-H50 VORT AXIS
BTWN THE I-4 AND I-10 CORRIDORS THANKS TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE
NRN PENINSULA. UPR LVLS ARE EITHER NEUTRAL OR WEAKLY CONVERGENT DUE
TO A ZONAL JET PATTERN OVER THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH.

OVERALL TEMP PROFILE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. MID LVL CAPPING IN PLACE WITH
H85-H70 LAPSE RATES ARND 4.0C/KM ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...BTWN 5.0-
5.5C/KM N OF I-4. MID LVL THERMAL TROF ALONG OVER THE NRN PENINSULA
HAS PUSHED H50 TEMPS DOWN TO ARND -10C ALONG AND N OF I-4...
GENERATING H70-H50 LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.0-6.5C/KM. HOWEVER... THESE
ARE ABOUT AS STEEP AS THEY ARE GOING TO GET AS THE AXIS OF AN H50
THERMAL TROF IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT WILL PUSH IT
OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTN.

SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...THE PREVAILING SE LOW/MID LVL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DIFFUSE AS IT PUSHES INLAND. PROSPECTS FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE SLIM AS THE RAP40 ANALYSIS INDICATED UPSTREAM
H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES AOB 60PCT...H85-H50 VALUES AOB 30PCT...TOO
DRY TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A SCT-BKN STRATOCU DECK. MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATING SINGLE DIGIT POPS...2KM WRF/HRRR MODELS EQUALLY
PESSIMISTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES.

DIMINISHED CI DECK WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO ARND 90F OVER THE
INTERIOR...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS TEMPS IN THE M80S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 02/12Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 02/02Z...E/SE 9-14KTS WITH OCNL SFC G18-22KTS.
BTWN 02/02Z-02/05Z...BCMG S/SE 3-7KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...CIGS AOA FL120. BTWN
01/15Z-01/19Z...COASTAL SITES OCNL MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-030.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS AS HI PRES RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC GENERATES
A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SE BREEZE OVER THE LCL WATERS. SHORT PD WIND
CHOP ARND 3FT WITH DOMINANT PDS BLO 6SEC. SEAS INCREASING TO 4FT
OFFSHORE ARND SUNSET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 011340
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

HI PRES RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE W ATLC WILL BE THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL...GENERATING A STEADY S/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-
H70 LYR. MORNING RAOBS SHOW A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS OVERHEAD WITH PWAT
VALUES ARND 1.00" OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...INCREASING TO 1.00"-
1.25" OVER S FL. MID LYR ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK H85-H50 VORT AXIS
BTWN THE I-4 AND I-10 CORRIDORS THANKS TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE
NRN PENINSULA. UPR LVLS ARE EITHER NEUTRAL OR WEAKLY CONVERGENT DUE
TO A ZONAL JET PATTERN OVER THE GOMEX/DEEP SOUTH.

OVERALL TEMP PROFILE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. MID LVL CAPPING IN PLACE WITH
H85-H70 LAPSE RATES ARND 4.0C/KM ALONG THE TREASURE COAST...BTWN 5.0-
5.5C/KM N OF I-4. MID LVL THERMAL TROF ALONG OVER THE NRN PENINSULA
HAS PUSHED H50 TEMPS DOWN TO ARND -10C ALONG AND N OF I-4...
GENERATING H70-H50 LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.0-6.5C/KM. HOWEVER... THESE
ARE ABOUT AS STEEP AS THEY ARE GOING TO GET AS THE AXIS OF AN H50
THERMAL TROF IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP WRLY FLOW THAT WILL PUSH IT
OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTN.

SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...THE PREVAILING SE LOW/MID LVL FLOW WILL
PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BY MIDDAY...BUT
IT WILL BE DIFFUSE AS IT PUSHES INLAND. PROSPECTS FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
MOISTURE ADVECTION ARE SLIM AS THE RAP40 ANALYSIS INDICATED UPSTREAM
H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES AOB 60PCT...H85-H50 VALUES AOB 30PCT...TOO
DRY TO GENERATE MUCH MORE THAN A SCT-BKN STRATOCU DECK. MOS GUIDANCE
INDICATING SINGLE DIGIT POPS...2KM WRF/HRRR MODELS EQUALLY
PESSIMISTIC ON PRECIP CHANCES.

DIMINISHED CI DECK WILL ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO WARM TO ARND 90F OVER THE
INTERIOR...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS TEMPS IN THE M80S ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 02/12Z.
SFC WINDS: THRU 02/02Z...E/SE 9-14KTS WITH OCNL SFC G18-22KTS.
BTWN 02/02Z-02/05Z...BCMG S/SE 3-7KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: PREVAILING VFR ALL SITES...CIGS AOA FL120. BTWN
01/15Z-01/19Z...COASTAL SITES OCNL MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-030.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL CONDITIONS AS HI PRES RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC GENERATES
A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SE BREEZE OVER THE LCL WATERS. SHORT PD WIND
CHOP ARND 3FT WITH DOMINANT PDS BLO 6SEC. SEAS INCREASING TO 4FT
OFFSHORE ARND SUNSET.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 011213
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
813 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...WARM WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES SE GA...

.UPDATE...AREA OF NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS TRACKING NE FROM NORTH OF A ALMA TO NAHUNTA LINE
EARLY THIS MORNING...IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AND UNDER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THIS AREA FROM THE WEST. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT
THIS AREA OF RAINFALL TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH MIDDAY...THEN A
BRIEF DECREASE IN PRECIP POTENTIAL UNTIL MID AFTN WHEN MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS SE GA AND EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE FL DUE TO SEA BREEZE
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENING RAINFALL WILL FOCUS ACROSS
SE GA AND INTERIOR NE FL MAINLY N OF THE I-1O CORRIDOR. SLOW STORM
MOTION WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS NEARING 90 INLAND...BUT NOT QUITE AS
HOT AS YESTERDAY GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. HIGHEST CHANCES OF
MORNING SHRA AT SSI...THEN AFTN TSRA WILL BE MOST PROBABLE AT
GNV...VQQ AND SSI. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED LOW CHANCES OF
MVFR TO POTENTIAL IFR AT GNV AND VQQ EARLY MON MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING SSE FLOW 10-15 KTS AND SEAS 2-4 FT TODAY.
SOLID 15 KTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  88  68 /  40  30  30  40
SSI  82  71  82  70 /  20  10  30  30
JAX  87  68  87  69 /  20  10  30  30
SGJ  84  70  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
GNV  90  67  89  67 /  20  20  30  20
OCF  90  67  89  68 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/COMBS/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011155
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR WITH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TERMINALS. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH APF TODAY. MORNING SHOWERS AND
LOW CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER A TERMINAL TO MVFR. OTHERWISE,
EXPECTING A DRY DAY AT THE SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL FEATURE MOVING WEST AROUND THE
BASE OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING IS BRINGING THE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE
OR LIGHT SHOWER IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND EAST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST. OVERALL HOWEVER, EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

EXPECT TO SEE BOTH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE WAVE HELPING TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A STORM OR TWO OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WITH THE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE COLLISION.

AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

MON-TUES...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN DRIVE AN EXPANSIVE FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO THURSDAY.

THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUES, WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING SOUTHERLY ON MON AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUES.
SHIFT IN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST. BOTH SEA BREEZES WILL FORM DURING THE AFTERNOONS PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR. STEERING FLOW WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR ON MONDAY, WITH THE INCREASING SW FLOW FOCUSING ACTIVITY
MORE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

WEDNESDAY ONWARDS...SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER EAST
COAST TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, AS A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MORE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, WHICH WILL HELP WING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES.

FOR BOTH MODELS HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 100-
110KT UPPER LEVEL JET CROSS THE STATE THAT AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
700MB WINDS 30-40KTS MAY BRING A FEW STRONGER STORMS, BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A SECONDARY FRONT
CROSSES THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY, AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER, WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
ON TUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS BOTH MON AND TUES, BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOONS. FRONT
DROPS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
WEEK GENERALLY 10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF 15-20KTS SUN AND
MON. SEAS 2-3FT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND WATERWAYS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MON AND TUES. BEST STORM CHANCES OF THE WEEK
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK.

ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  76  87  74 /  20  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  77  86  77 /  20  10  20  20
MIAMI            87  76  87  76 /  20  10  20  20
NAPLES           89  71  88  72 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...02/RAG




000
FXUS62 KTBW 011136
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
736 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
01/12Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW TO SCT CU AND CI CLOUDS.
LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING TO
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. BEST POTENTIAL
FOR A SHOWER AFTER 19Z FOR KPGD/KFMY/KRSW...HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES
EVEN FOR THESE TERMINALS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE MENTION IN CURRENT
TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...
WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS...OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE - LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
TRAILED A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO TX AND HAD A WARM FROM EAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDED ACROSS
FL TO MUCH OF THE GULF.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTERS LIFTS AND
PIVOTS SLIGHTLY...FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO EASTERN QUEBEC...
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT IS
DRAGGED EASTWARD...STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO
THE TX/LA COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOME AND SLIDES EAST
AS THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK ACROSS FL TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...A POCKET OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SEA BREEZE AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MON
THE WEAKENING AND EXITING UPPER RIDGE AND AND AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CHANCE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST COVERAGE INLAND.

MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...THE FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT...AS A POTENT UPPER CYCLONE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER
LOOKS TO UNFOLD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH BASE
OF THE TROUGH...AFFECTING THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND EVENTUALLY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPANSIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THOUGH SPOTTY SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO REINFORCE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS UPPER
WAVE...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE
GULF AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...BRINGING A SPELL OF COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH LOWS LOOK TO FALL
BELOW CLIMO...WITH SOME AREAS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

MARINE...
A RELAXED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A FRONT MID-WEEK
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS
AND SEAS BENIGN ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

FIRE WEATHER...
ADEQUATE MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD DROP RH VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRANSPORT WINDS.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  88  74 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  89  71  89  72 /  20  10  40  20
GIF  91  71  91  71 /  10  10  30  30
SRQ  84  72  85  72 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  90  68  88  67 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  87  74  86  74 /   0  10  10  10

TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  88  74 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  89  71  89  72 /  20  10  40  20
GIF  91  71  91  71 /  10  10  30  30
SRQ  84  72  85  72 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  90  68  88  67 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  87  74  86  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MROCZKA
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...RUDE/AUSTIN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 011008
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
608 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
[Through 12z Monday] Patchy fog across the area is expected to
lift between 13-14z with the greatest impact around ECP where
LIFR conditions have been observed. VFR will return after any
remaining fog lifts this morning. Later this afternoon, isolated
to scattered thunderstorms are possible around DHN and ABY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [347 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large, positively tilted upper level
trough stretching from the southwest states northeastward to the
Great Lakes. Ridging prevails off the southeast coast with light
southerly 1000-700 mb mean winds. This has been providing a moist
boundary layer with relatively high dewpoints for this time of year
and isolated to scattered afternoon convection, which is more
typical of summertime. For today, there is not much change in the
large scale pattern expected with the latest ensemble of CAM
guidance placing isolated to scattered convection (20-30 percent
PoPs) across the northern half of the area this afternoon. Afternoon
high temperatures will generally range from 85 to 90 across the
area, except a couple of degrees cooler right along the coast.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

An upper level trough and associated cold front will advance
eastward with the front pushing into and across our FA Monday
night and Tuesday. The deepest moisture will remain to the north
and west of the Tri-state area Monday so kept PoPs mostly in the
chance range (30-40%); highest north. For Tuesday, the ensemble of
CAMS increase PoPs to likely and categorical for a large portion
of our FL and GA zones. While not as robust, MOS PoPs have trended
higher this run. Will show PoPs mostly in the good chance to
likely range (50-60%) with the highest across our FL and southern
GA zones where the front should interact with the seabreeze. High
temps will range from mid 80s west to around 90 east Monday and
around 80 west to mid 80s east on Tuesday. Lows both nights in the
mid to upper 60s.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The long wave trough over the eastern CONUS will deepen as a
strong upper low dives southeastward from just north of the Great
Lakes Tuesday night to the mid-Atlantic states Thursday. The low
is forecast to become cutoff and spin over or just east of the
Delmarva Peninsula through the next weekend setting up an Omega
Block pattern across the CONUS. As this pattern change evolves,
the aforementioned surface front will push well to our south with
rain ending from west to east on Wednesday. A secondary dry cold
front will push down from the north and through the region
Wednesday night/Thursday. The remainder of the extended period
will be dry with near to just below seasonal temps with deep
northwest flow in place. Highs will range from the upper 70s to
lower 80s through Saturday and then the lower to mid 80s Sunday.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s through Friday night and then mid to
upper 50s Saturday night.


.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Monday before shifting
to the west then northwest Tuesday and Tuesday night as a cold
front passes through the local waters. A secondary cold front
will approach and push through the eastern Gulf Wednesday and
Thursday with winds and possibly seas elevating to cautionary
levels.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.


.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level later tonight or Sunday. Rainfall
amounts for the upcoming week are not expected to be particularly
heavy or widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  66  87  69  84 /  10  20  30  20  60
Panama City   81  70  80  71  79 /  10  10  20  20  60
Dothan        86  66  85  67  80 /  40  20  40  30  50
Albany        87  67  87  67  82 /  40  30  40  30  50
Valdosta      89  67  90  68  85 /  20  20  40  30  60
Cross City    87  67  87  69  85 /  10  10  30  20  40
Apalachicola  82  69  81  71  80 /  10  10  20  20  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fournier




000
FXUS62 KKEY 010921
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
521 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE BEING
MEASURED THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR LAND AND MARINE OBSERVING STATIONS.
A FEW QUICK HITTING SHOWERS HAVE EMERGED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS MORNING...DELIVERING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AS THEY MOVE OFF
TO THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE 00Z KKEY UPPER AIR SOUNDING MEASURED A
VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE ABOVE 900 MB OR ABOUT 3100 FEET...WITH A NOTABLE
3 DEGREE CELSIUS INVERSION JUST ABOVE THAT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUE OF 0.80 INCHES MEASURED FALLS BELOW THE 10TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY MAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE HELD STEADY IN THE UPPER 70S THIS
MORNING...WHILE DEWPOINTS HAVE HOVERED IN THE LOWER 70S. SKIES REMAIN
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THE INCREASED EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES HAVE HELP GENERATE CUMULUS CLOUDS.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FEATURES
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. A BRIEF WIND SURGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT OWING TO MESOSCALE EFFECTS. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE TO FURTHER SUBSIDE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD
OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH
MONDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE TO DIME POPS MONDAY NIGHT IN TO
TUESDAY HAS WINDS CLOCK AROUND TO THE SOUTH...TRANSPORTING A LITTLE
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN TO THE AREA.


&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL
MOVE IN TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES DROPS IN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN TO THURSDAY...AS A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED
RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT TIMING OF IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE FURTHER HONED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED IN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AS WE HEAD IN TO
NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.MARINE...FROM SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST WILL
RESULT IN MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES TODAY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS. A BRIEF WIND SURGE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT...LIKELY
REQUIRING CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE DISTRICT.
THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MIGRATE OFF
TO THE EAST NORTHEAST...ALLOWING GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZES TO
PERSIST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AT EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND PICK UP AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...KEY WEST ENDED THE MONTH OF APRIL WITH AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 77.0 DEGREES...FOR WHICH THE NORMAL IS 76.4 DEGREES.
AND IT ACCUMULATED 1.40 INCHES OF RAINFALL...FOR WHICH THE NORMAL IS
2.05 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  78  85  78 / -  -  -  10
MARATHON  87  77  87  78 / -  -  -  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FLING
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 010846
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
446 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A WEAKENING UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WILL WEAKEN/FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE BUT THE AIRMASS IS TOO
DRY FOR IT TOO HAVE MUCH IMPACT EXCEPT FOR SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS STREAMING OVERHEAD
BUT THE STRONGEST DIFLUENCE ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA SO
THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL PRODUCE AN E-SE WIND FLOW. THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION BUT A COUPLE OF CONVERGENT CLOUD LINES OFF THE BAHAMAS
COULD CROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND
MID LEVELS...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90
INTERIOR AND MID 80S COAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BUT WELL
SHORT OF ANY RECORDS.

MON-TUE...W ATLANTIC SFC RIDGE SITUATED SUCH AS TO PERSIST A SE
MARITIME FLOW PATTERN FOR MON. FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING POPS MODEST MOSTLY WITH EMBEDDED ECSB. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY INLAND DUE TO PROPAGATION...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO
DRIFT BACK TO NNE IN STEERING FLOW. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL SHOW 20 PERCENT POPS. TUE WILL FIND GATHERING/DEEPENING
MOISTURE CONCENTRATING AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BAND STRETCHED
ACROSS S GA AND N FL. SFC RIDGE RETREATS SEAWARD/SOUTHWARD AS LOW-
LVL WIND FLOW VEERS SW. A MID-LVL S/W DROPS SE OUT OF THE MIDWEST TO
KICK UP A SECONDARY FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC TO HELP SWING
THE FRONT TOWARD THE PNSLA LATE. 500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN MINUS 10-12
DEG C WITH SFC HEATING NEAR 90 DEG SHOULD ALLOW MORE PRODUCTIVE
CONVECTION. STEERING WILL BE MORE PROMINENTLY WSW AND TEND TO FOCUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH AN EAST COAST LATE AFTERNOON SKEW.
INCREASED COVERAGE OVERALL. WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN U80S/L90S...
EXCEPT M80S IMMEDIATE COAST. MIN TEMPS U60S/L70S.

WED-SAT...INTRIGUING SITUATION SETTING UP FOR WED AS THE ONCE
SLUGGSIH FRONT PLUNGES SOUTH DOWN THE PNSLA. EXACT TIMING A BIT
UNCERTAIN BUT GFS HAS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ARRIVING EARLY WED AND THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE
READILY EJECTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AREA WILL REALIZE BEST
SHOT AT DISTRIBUTED RAINFALL WITH EMPHASIS NORTH OF ORLANDO THRU
EARLY AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF ORLANDO THRU EARLY EVENING. INCREASING
MID LYR H7-H5 FLOW TO 30-40 KNOTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP WITH
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND HAIL POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS
S OF ORLANDO DURING LATE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS IN THE U60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS A FEW DEG LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT SHOULD STILL MANAGE U80S S FORECAST
AREA.

UPPER PATTERN GREATLY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CONUS FROM WED INTO
WEEKEND AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE SHOOTS N THRU THE CENTRAL U.S.
FOSTERING A TROUGH PLUNGING S OVER THE EAST U.S. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO MOVE WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THU WITH LOCAL POST FRONTAL DRYING...THEN RE-INFORCED
WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF CONTINENTAL DRY AIR BY FRI WITH CONTINUED
NW-N FLOW. PLEASANT AS MAX TEMPS DIALING BACK TO L80S EACH DAY
THU-SAT...WITH MIN TEMPS L/M60S THU WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS
FINDING U50S FRI-SAT MORN.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE COAST THROUGH 14Z.
E/SE WINDS 10 TO 12 KNOTS EXCEPT A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR 15 KNOTS
AT COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTN BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE WATERS WILL
PRODUCE AN E/SE WIND FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WIND CHOP OF 3 FT TODAY INCREASING TO 4 FEET TONIGHT MAINLY
OFFSHORE.

MON-TUE...GRADUAL INCREASE IN OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL
FOR EACH SUCCESSIVE DAY THRU MID-WEEK. SFC RIDGE OVER W ATLANTIC
PROVIDES S/SE PREVAILING FLOW FOR MON BUT THEN BEGINS TO GET PUSHED
SEAWARD/SOUTHWARD FOR TUE ALLOWING FLOW TO BECOME SW AHEAD OF A
FRONT NEARING N FL. SEAS 2-3 FEET BECOMING 3-4 FEET NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND 3-4 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL 5 FEET OFFSHORE WATERS. WINDS
GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS.

WED-THU...FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THRU THE WATERS ON WED
CLEARING THE PNSLA BY THU. WINDS BECOME SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH
WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE WED...WITH
THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STRONG STORMS S OF CAPE CANAVERAL. POST
FRONTAL WINDS THEN BECOME NW THU WITH AN ENSUING DRY PERIOD INTO
THE WEEKEND. WINDS/SEAS BECOME ELEVATED JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM...BUT FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW CAUTIONARY LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...MIN RH VALUES EXPECTED TO LOWER NEAR 40 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH E/SE WINDS 10 TO 12 MPH...A LITTLE STRONGER NEAR
THE COAST FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES...ERC VALUES CONTINUE TO
CREEP UPWARDS.

INCREASING OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHTNING STORMS EACH SUCCESSIVE
AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCE FOR WED WITH PASSING FRONT. S/SE WINDS
MON BECOME S/SW TUE INTO WED...SHIFTING W/NW BEHIND FRONT LATE
WED INTO THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  70  87  70 /  10  10  10  20
MCO  90  70  91  70 /  10  10  20  20
MLB  85  72  87  71 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  86  71  87  70 /  10  10  10  20
LEE  90  70  90  71 /  10  10  20  20
SFB  90  70  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
ORL  90  70  90  71 /  10  10  20  20
FPR  85  71  86  68 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....DS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 010823
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
423 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL FEATURE MOVING WEST AROUND THE
BASE OF THE RIDGE THIS MORNING IS BRINGING THE OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE
OR LIGHT SHOWER IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND EAST
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.

MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY LINGERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
THROUGH MID MORNING ALONG THE EAST COAST. OVERALL HOWEVER, EXPECT
ANY SHOWERS TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.

EXPECT TO SEE BOTH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
LINGERING EFFECTS OF THE WAVE HELPING TO KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A STORM OR TWO OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
WITH THE LATE DAY SEA BREEZE COLLISION.

AFTERNOON HIGHS REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

MON-TUES...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS
WILL STRENGTHEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL IN TURN DRIVE AN EXPANSIVE FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND WEAK SURFACE LOW EAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND EASTERN
SEABOARD INTO THURSDAY.

THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TUES, WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING SOUTHERLY ON MON AND SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUES.
SHIFT IN FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST. BOTH SEA BREEZES WILL FORM DURING THE AFTERNOONS PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR. STEERING FLOW WILL FOCUS ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR ON MONDAY, WITH THE INCREASING SW FLOW FOCUSING ACTIVITY
MORE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

WEDNESDAY ONWARDS...SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER EAST
COAST TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY ON WEDNESDAY, AS A
LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MORE ROBUST
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, WHICH WILL HELP WING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO, THOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT
TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES OF THE VARIOUS FEATURES.

FOR BOTH MODELS HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE
WEEK AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 100-
110KT UPPER LEVEL JET CROSS THE STATE THAT AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
700MB WINDS 30-40KTS MAY BRING A FEW STRONGER STORMS, BUT NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THURSDAY, BEFORE A SECONDARY FRONT
CROSSES THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY, AND SOMEWHAT
COOLER, WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
ON TUES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS BOTH MON AND TUES, BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS IN THE AFTERNOONS. FRONT
DROPS INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS,
VEERING WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SPEEDS THROUGH THE
WEEK GENERALLY 10-15KTS WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF 15-20KTS SUN AND
MON. SEAS 2-3FT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE INLAND WATERWAYS
AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE MON AND TUES. BEST STORM CHANCES OF THE WEEK
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH DRIER WEATHER INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  76  87  74 /  20  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  77  86  77 /  20  10  20  20
MIAMI            87  76  87  76 /  20  10  20  20
NAPLES           89  71  88  72 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALM




000
FXUS62 KTBW 010753
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHED FROM QUEBEC TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...
WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED CLOSED LOWS...OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A RIDGE REACHED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
REGION TO NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE - LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY
TRAILED A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO TX AND HAD A WARM FROM EAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDED ACROSS
FL TO MUCH OF THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED LOW CENTERS LIFTS AND
PIVOTS SLIGHTLY...FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO EASTERN QUEBEC...
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT IS
DRAGGED EASTWARD...STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TO
THE TX/LA COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOME AND SLIDES EAST
AS THE ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH MOVING EAST BUT CONTINUES TO RIDGE
BACK ACROSS FL TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. HOWEVER...A POCKET OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A
SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST SEA BREEZE AND DAY TIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MON
THE WEAKENING AND EXITING UPPER RIDGE AND AND AN OVERALL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CHANCE SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS. AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST COVERAGE INLAND.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG RANGE PERIOD...THE FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT...AS A POTENT UPPER CYCLONE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. A STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER
LOOKS TO UNFOLD WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH BASE
OF THE TROUGH...AFFECTING THE MID SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN
STATES...AND EVENTUALLY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

MONDAY NIGHT...EXPANSIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THOUGH SPOTTY SEABREEZE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE ONGOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RATHER MUGGY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

BY TUESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO REINFORCE
UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE
COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LIFT...INCREASING MOISTURE...AND AN
APPROACHING FRONT...ALONG WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES...SHOULD LEAD TO
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL PIECE OF
ENERGY LOOKS TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING A SOLID CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS UPPER
WAVE...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY
EXIST...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE
GULF AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...BRINGING A SPELL OF COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. FOLLOWING THE FRONT...HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...THOUGH LOWS LOOK TO FALL
BELOW CLIMO...WITH SOME AREAS FALLING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 01/06Z CYCLE. PREVAILING VFR WITH FEW TO SCT CU AND CI
CLOUDS. LIGHT SE TO EAST WINDS OVERNIGHT...SHIFTING TO ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH BUT WELL INLAND OF THOSE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELAXED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A FRONT MID-WEEK
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WINDS
AND SEAS BENIGN ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS
AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ADEQUATE MOISTURE ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
COLD FRONT MID-WEEK WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD DROP RH VALUES TO NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRANSPORT WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  88  74 /  10  10  20  10
FMY  89  71  89  72 /  20  10  40  20
GIF  91  71  91  71 /  10  10  30  30
SRQ  84  72  85  72 /   0  10  10  10
BKV  90  68  88  67 /  10  10  20  20
SPG  87  74  86  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...84/AUSTIN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 010747
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
347 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 06z analysis depicts a large, positively tilted upper level
trough stretching from the southwest states northeastward to the
Great Lakes. Ridging prevails off the southeast coast with light
southerly 1000-700 mb mean winds. This has been providing a moist
boundary layer with relatively high dewpoints for this time of year
and isolated to scattered afternoon convection, which is more
typical of summertime. For today, there is not much change in the
large scale pattern expected with the latest ensemble of CAM
guidance placing isolated to scattered convection (20-30 percent
PoPs) across the northern half of the area this afternoon. Afternoon
high temperatures will generally range from 85 to 90 across the
area, except a couple of degrees cooler right along the coast.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

An upper level trough and associated cold front will advance
eastward with the front pushing into and across our FA Monday
night and Tuesday. The deepest moisture will remain to the north
and west of the Tri-state area Monday so kept PoPs mostly in the
chance range (30-40%); highest north. For Tuesday, the ensemble of
CAMS increase PoPs to likely and categorical for a large portion
of our FL and GA zones. While not as robust, MOS PoPs have trended
higher this run. Will show PoPs mostly in the good chance to
likely range (50-60%) with the highest across our FL and southern
GA zones where the front should interact with the seabreeze. High
temps will range from mid 80s west to around 90 east Monday and
around 80 west to mid 80s east on Tuesday. Lows both nights in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The long wave trough over the eastern CONUS will deepen as a
strong upper low dives southeastward from just north of the Great
Lakes Tuesday night to the mid-Atlantic states Thursday. The low
is forecast to become cutoff and spin over or just east of the
Delmarva Peninsula through the next weekend setting up an Omega
Block pattern across the CONUS. As this pattern change evolves,
the aforementioned surface front will push well to our south with
rain ending from west to east on Wednesday. A secondary dry cold
front will push down from the north and through the region
Wednesday night/Thursday. The remainder of the extended period
will be dry with near to just below seasonal temps with deep
northwest flow in place. Highs will range from the upper 70s to
lower 80s through Saturday and then the lower to mid 80s Sunday.
Lows in the lower to mid 50s through Friday night and then mid to
upper 50s Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

[Through 06z Monday] Patchy fog is again possible through around 13-
14z with the greatest chance around VLD. Conditions may vary between
MVFR and LIFR in the fog. VFR will return to any areas that see fog
by the mid-morning hours.

&&

.MARINE...

Light onshore winds will continue through Monday before shifting
to the west then northwest Tuesday and Tuesday night as a cold
front passes through the local waters. A secondary cold front
will approach and push through the eastern Gulf Wednesday and
Thursday with winds and possibly seas elevating to cautionary
levels.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days with
RH values above critical levels.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Only the Choctawhatchee River at Bruce was at "action stage", and
will fall below this level later tonight or Sunday. Rainfall
amounts for the upcoming week are not expected to be particularly
heavy or widespread.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   88  66  87  69  84 /  10  20  30  20  60
Panama City   81  70  80  71  79 /  10  10  20  20  60
Dothan        86  66  85  67  80 /  40  20  40  30  50
Albany        87  67  87  67  82 /  40  30  40  30  50
Valdosta      89  67  90  68  85 /  20  20  40  30  60
Cross City    87  67  87  69  85 /  10  10  30  20  40
Apalachicola  82  69  81  71  80 /  10  10  20  20  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Barry
LONG TERM...Barry
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Barry
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Fournier




000
FXUS62 KJAX 010732
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH MONDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION THIS PERIOD. THIS PATTERN
WILL LEAD TO A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CONVECTION INITIATION WILL
PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. FOR TODAY...EXPECT INITIATION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON JUST
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95...WITH THE CONVECTIVE AREA SLOWLY MOVING WEST
AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES IN. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR BOTH DAYS...WITH THE HIGHEST READINGS
INLAND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 75 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

BROAD SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE MON NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY VEERING AS
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATES EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE E
COAST LATE TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER AL AND
GA WILL AFFECT OUR NRN ZONES MON NIGHT. WITH A MEAN TROUGH POSITION
SETTING UP OVER THE ERN CONUS...MID LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION
BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND GRADUALLY INCREASES. AN ASSOCD COLD
FRONT WITH A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRES ALONG IT WILL MOVE TO THE E
COAST ON TUESDAY FROM THE MID ATLC SWWD TO NRN GA TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

A MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH PWATS AOA 1.5
INCHES...WITH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. GIVEN
REGIME...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE MORE ELEVATED...WITH ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT. FOR TUESDAY...WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF SFC FRONT THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ON TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE BASED ON
GFS FCST SOUNDINGS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
NEAR 30 KT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SE GA HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE...LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER WITH DEVELOPMENT OF ERN CONUS
TROUGH MID WEEK WITH WEDNESDAY FEATURING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING E AND OFF THE COAST DURING THE DAY WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES
EXITING TO THE E DURING THE DAY. DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE W AND NW WITH ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY
COMING TO AN END WED AFTN/EVENING AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

THE DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WX PATTERN EXPECTED THU THROUGH SAT AS
ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT AND LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE MOVES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY. SFC
HIGH PRES OVER THE SRN CONUS VERY GRADUALLY MOVES EWD TOWARD OUR
AREA. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING SSE THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. CERTAINLY SEE A BREAK
FROM THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS NOW WITH CONSENSUS HIGHS NEAR 80 AND
LOWS IN THE 50S. IF SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE VERIFIES...WE COULD
ACTUALLY CHALLENGE RECORD LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO
MID 40S. OCNL BREEZY NW TO W WINDS EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH HUMIDITY
LEVELS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.AVIATION...

PATCHY INLAND FOG IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...
BUT AT THIS POINT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF AREA WATERS THROUGH MONDAY. A COOL
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO AREA WATERS TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  88  68 /  30  30  30  40
SSI  82  71  82  70 /  10  10  30  30
JAX  87  68  87  69 /  20  10  30  30
SGJ  84  70  84  70 /  10  10  20  20
GNV  90  67  89  67 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  90  67  89  68 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY




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