Home > Products > State Listing > Florida Data
Latest:
 AFDTAE |  AFDJAX |  AFDMFL |  AFDMLB |  AFDKEY |  AFDTBW |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 260804
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
404 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today-Monday)...
Deep moisture and an unstable environment will hold over the
region through Monday. The weak upper flow over the area continues
between the upper high centered near the Lower MS River valley
and upper low spinning off of New England. Series of vort maxes to
drop into the area from the N to combine with diurnal heating and
sea/bay breeze boundaries to initiate convection that will
propagate on outflow boundaries in weak steering flow. Have kept
pops in the scattered range at the coast to numerous category over
interior areas both days. Warm and humid conditions to prevail
with overnight temps several degrees above normal and near normal
daytime temps creating summertime heat indices around 100.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Monday Night-Saturday)...
In the mid and upper levels ridging will become suppressed south and
west as troughing sets up over the eastern United States. Meanwhile
at the surface, high pressure ridging across the region will be
shifted south and east as a cool front associated with the trough
sinks into the southeast states and stalls to our north. Therefore,
for the most of mid and long term period a southwest to west flow
will become established across the region. As is typical in this
pattern during the Summer when there isn`t a lot of upper level
energy the highest rain chances will be over the interior and
eastern portions of the Florida peninsula where the best sea breeze
collision is expected late each day into the evening hours. We
should have enough moisture in place though to see isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
late each night and some of this convection could affect coastal
areas. Then as the mornings progress more isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will develop across the coastal counties
and become scattered to numerous as they move into the interior and
eastern portions of the Florida peninsula during the afternoon and
evening. Next weekend it does look like the mid and upper level
troughing will weaken some allowing the surface ridge to move north
into south central Florida, thus shifting the chance of late night
and morning convection to mainly the Nature Coast with scattered
storms possible everywhere during the afternoon and evening. Daytime
high temperatures will remain close to normal in the upper 80s near
the coast to the lower 90s inland with overnight lows a few degrees
above normal in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees. However, some
locations near the coast may only fall into the lower 80s thanks to
the onshore flow off the warm Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
Summertime set up again continues today with VFR conditions this
morning then rapid development of SCT-NMRS TSRA from around
16-18Z through around 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Weak ridge axis over the region and E Gulf of Mexico today and into
first part of the upcoming work week to keep light winds and
slight seas in place outside of scattered thunderstorms. By mid
week the ridge sinks south as cold front stalls in the deep south
with westerly flow over the waters mid-late week producing earlier
start to storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Summertime pattern continues with warm and moist conditions along
with afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms through the
week.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  91  77  90  78 /  40  20  50  30
FMY  93  75  91  75 /  40  30  60  30
GIF  94  75  93  75 /  60  30  60  30
SRQ  90  76  89  76 /  30  20  30  30
BKV  93  73  92  73 /  50  30  50  30
SPG  91  78  90  78 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 260748 CCA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Miami FL
348 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Broad upper level ridge remains in control of the weather pattern
in South Florida for most of the forecast period. Expect this wet
seasonal pattern to continue with convection firing up by mid day
through the end of the weekend and next week. As the easterly wind
continues, expect the sea breeze activity to initiate inland and
gradually drift westward through the afternoon hours. High temps
will range between the low to mid 90s today with heat index values
of 101 to 105 over Collier county. Expect light and variable wind
overnight with low temperatures in the 70s. On Monday, similar
weather pattern continues with another round of thunderstorms in
the afternoon hours with the sea breeze.

Tuesday-Saturday: An upper trough over Canada digs south into the
NE plains Tue into Wed pushing a cold front into the Southeast
Plains. This front will weaken and become stationary remaining to
the north of the region not bringing any significant impact into
S FL. As ridge remains in place, diurnal convective development
is expected continuing to focus over interior South Florida.
Temperatures will remain seasonal for the end of June, with max
in the 90s and minimums in the 70s to around 80 degrees through
the remainder of the week and early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South Florida remains under the influence of a Bermuda high,
and an upper level ridge. This will keep a typical summer time
pattern over South Florida through the TAF period. Showers
and thunderstorms are forecast to develop, but mainly affect
the interior and Gulf coast this afternoon. There is a slight
chance they could impact the airports along the southeast Florida
Atlantic coast, but it is too low to place in the TAFs at this
time. KAPF has a PROB30 for TSRA after 17z, through 23z, although
they may persist a little later into the evening hours.
Otherwise, VFR conditions through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...Upper level ridge will remain in control over over the
region through the forecast period. The Southeasterly flow will
prevail for much of next week keeping benign marine conditions. A
few thunderstorms are possible throughout the period, with
greatest coverage being over Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon
hours as sea breeze develops. Aside from locally higher winds and
seas in and near convection, no hazardous marine conditions are
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  76  89  76 /  40  40  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  78  89  77 /  40  40  50  30
Miami            91  78  89  77 /  40  30  50  30
Naples           90  76  89  76 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99/MT
LONG TERM....99/MT
AVIATION...13




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260747
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
347 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Broad upper level ridge remains in control of the weather pattern
in South Florida for most of the forecast period. Expect this wet
seasonal pattern to continue with convection firing up by mid day
through the end of the weekend and next week. As the easterly wind
continues, expect the sea breeze activity to initiate inland and
gradually drift westward through the afternoon hours. High temps
will range between the low to mid 90s today with heat index values
of 101 to 105 over Collier county. Expect light and variable wind
overnight with low temperatures in the 70s. On Monday, similar
weather pattern continues with another round of thunderstorms in
the afternoon hours with the sea breeze.

Tuesday-Saturday: An upper trough over Canada digs south into the
NE plains Tue into Wed pushing a cold front into the Southeast
Plains. This front will weaken and become stationary remaining to
the north of the region not bringing any significant impact into
S FL. As ridge remains in place, diurnal convective development
is expected continuing to focus over interior South Florida.
Temperatures will remain seasonal for the end of June, with max
in the 90s and minimums in the 70s to around 80 degrees through
the remainder of the week and early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
South Florida remains under the influence of a Bermuda high,
and an upper level ridge. This will keep a typical summer time
pattern over South Florida through the TAF period. Showers
and thunderstorms are forecast to develop, but mainly affect
the interior and Gulf coast this afternoon. There is a slight
chance they could impact the airports along the southeast Florida
Atlantic coast, but it is too low to place in the TAFs at this
time. KAPF hasa PROB30 for TSRA after 17z, through 23z, although
they may persist a little later into the evening hours.
Otherwise, VFR conditionsthrough the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...Upper level ridge will remain in control over over the
region through the forecast period. The Southeasterly flow will
prevail for much of next week keeping bening marine conditions.
A few thunderstorms are possible throughout the period, with
greatest coverage being over Lake Okeechobee during the afternoon
hours as sea breeze develops. Aside from locally higher winds and
seas in and near convection, no hazardous marine conditions are
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  76  89  76 /  40  40  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  78  89  77 /  40  40  50  30
Miami            91  78  89  77 /  40  30  50  30
Naples           90  76  89  76 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99/MT
LONG TERM....99/MT
AVIATION...13



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 260728
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
328 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...Mid level anticyclone centered over the lower
Mississippi valley will gradually retrograde as a weak shortwave
trough sags down from the north into the local area.  This will
cause slight mid level cooling, so with average looking moisture
starting off the day, expect convective initiation by early
afternoon.

The east coast sea breeze will act as the initial focus for
scattered showers/storms. Surface ridge axis situated over our
southern sections will produce a light west wind component, so
this initial convection should have a chance to affect the U.S. 1
corridor before activity propagates inland by late afternoon.

The HRRR model has also been showing a weak surface trough to our
north enhancing coverage of convection. Steering flow will be from
north to south so a higher coverage of storms should push down into
northern and central sections by late afternoon.

The greatest amount of boundary interactions will be across the
interior so will continue with 50-60 percent PoPs there.  The coast
should have a larger PoP gradient as showers/storms initiate over
the mainland and there is no steer back indicated to the barrier
islands.

Small PoPs may continue into the evening as pockets of instability
and outflow boundaries linger.

Max temps will again be in the mid 90s except for lower 90s along
the coast.  The warmth though will be broken by the showers/storms
and outflow boundaries, so it shouldn`t feel so hot/so long like
the past few days.

MON...Frontal boundary north of the area weakens, while Atlantic
ridge remains east of Florida. This will produce very light winds in
the low levels with sea breeze boundaries developing along both
coasts and steadily moving inland through the afternoon. Models show
moisture decreasing slightly into Monday and temperatures at 500mb
increasing by a degree or two. This may produce a decrease in
overall convective coverage compared to Sunday with best chance for
showers and storms continuing to be over the interior with late day
boundary interactions.

Highs will reach the upper 80s along the coast to low 90s over the
interior. However could see mid 90s again over inland areas if
shower/storm development is delayed or less than expected. Lows
will continue to range from the low to mid 70s.

TUE-SAT...Atlantic ridge extends westward into mid to late week,
with ridge axis remaining south of central Florida as another weak
front moves into the southeast U.S. and stalls. Low level winds
become S/SW during this timeframe and generally remain weak enough
for sea breeze to form each afternoon and move slowly inland. This
flow pattern and increasing moisture, with PW values approaching
around 2 inches, will lead to higher rain chances across east
central Florida Tuesday onward. East coast sea breeze should be more
active during this timeframe with boundary collisions enhancing
storm development near to west of I-95 late in the day. Offshore mid
to upper level steering winds will then push any convection back
toward the coast through the evening.

Higher rain chances and increased cloud cover from afternoon showers
and storms should keep highs closer to normal in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Temperatures overnight will fall into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR this morning.  Then scattered to numerous
showers and storms are forecast this afternoon over the interior.
Some of the convection may affect the coastal terminals too, but
the strongest storms are expected to be across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...The nocturnal increase of southerly winds should
diminish this morning as directions veer to westerly.  Conditions
for small craft operation should mostly be good.  However, will have
to watch for a chance of storms, especially from Canaveral northward
as a weak surface trough drops into north Florida and helps to
increase convection this afternoon.

MON-THU...Favorable boating conditions generally expected to
continue through the work week. Atlantic ridge will build back
westward with ridge axis staying south of the area as weak front
moves into the southeast U.S. and stalls. Winds out of the S/SE
Monday will become S/SW with a more onshore component near the coast
each afternoon as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Wind speeds
will mainly stay below 15 knots with seas ranging from 1-3 feet.
Expect a chance for offshore moving storms during the afternoon
and evening by Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  74  90  74 /  40  30  20  20
MCO  95  75  93  74 /  60  20  50  20
MLB  91  75  89  74 /  40  20  20  20
VRB  91  74  89  73 /  40  20  30  20
LEE  96  76  93  76 /  60  30  50  30
SFB  96  75  93  75 /  50  20  40  20
ORL  94  77  93  75 /  60  20  40  20
FPR  91  72  89  72 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lascody
LONG TERM....Weitlich



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 260709
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
308 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Outflow boundary and backdoor cold front over s GA
will sag south today into ne Fl by afternoon. Increased moisture
pooling ahead of boundaries will result in scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon. Temperatures and heat
indices will not be quite as high as yesterday but conditions will
still be hot and humid. High temperatures will reach the low to mid
90s with heat indices 100 to 105. Convection will decrease this
evening with lows tonight in the low/mid 70s.

Mon/Tue...Weak frontal boundary/trof remains stalled over NE FL and
expect Atlc Coast Sea Breeze front to develop each day and push
inland to develop scattered showers and storms during the afternoon
and evening hours. Best rain chances will be over inland areas
between the I-75 and I-95 corridors. Max temps will reach into the
lower/middle 90s over inland areas before storms kick off with heat
indices into the 100-105 degree range, slightly cooler at the
beaches behind the sea breeze, closer to 90 degrees. Strong storms
will be possible both days with main threats of gusty winds,
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall due to slow storm
movement.

.LONG TERM...

Wed-Sun...Surface High Pressure ridge will get suppress south of the
region across the Florida Peninsula as weak frontal boundary pushes
into the SE U.S. and this will produce a moist SWLY steering flow
across NE FL/SE GA. This pattern combined with PWAT`s close to 2
inches and sea breeze fronts pushing in from both coasts will lead
to numerous showers and storms each afternoon/evening. The slight
increase in shower activity and more cloud cover will keep max temps
in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s along the coast, very close to
normal values for late June/early July. Strong storms will be
possible each day with main threats of gusty winds, frequent
lightning and locally heavy rainfall due to slow storm movement.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to prevail today. Have VCTS
in TAFs after 16z with the greater coverage of storms expected
this afternoon and evening. MVFR and IFR conditions may develop in
shower activity. Winds will become north and then northeast as
outflow boundary and backdoor cold front over s Ga sags south into
the area today.

&&

.MARINE... South to southwest winds this morning will become ne to
e by afternoon as a weakening backdoor cold front sags south into
the waters. The front will stall and dissipate over the Fl waters
on Monday with a south to southwest flow resuming Tuesday through
Thursday.

Rip Currents: low risk through Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  95  72  95  72 /  20  10  20  10
SSI  91  76  88  77 /  20  10  20  10
JAX  95  74  93  73 /  60  20  30  10
SGJ  91  74  89  75 /  30  30  30  10
GNV  94  72  94  73 /  40  30  50  20
OCF  94  74  93  73 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Zibura/Hess



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTAE 260642
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
242 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A cut off upper level low can be seen in IR and WV satellite imagery
off the northeastern coastline as can a front trailing it
southwestward across the western Atlantic Ocean, westward across
southern Georgia, and then trailing northwestward across central
Alabama. Low level flow south of this front has been southwesterly
since Saturday, returning rich low level Gulf moisture to our area,
and steadily increasing PWAT values. With PWAT values forecast to
return to the 1.75-2" range, there will be plenty of moisture today
to feed thunderstorms. There will also be forcing for thunderstorms
between the front to our north and an afternoon seabreeze front in
north Florida. Finally, sufficient instability will be on tap thanks
to another abnormally warm day with highs once again in the upper
90s. All these thunderstorm ingredients together will mean much
higher chances for thunderstorms across the area than we`ve seen
this past week- there are 60 to 70% chances practically everywhere
in our CWA this afternoon. With strong instability on tap, some of
the storms today may produce downbursts of damaging winds and some
small hail.

The heat and humidity today will also make heat indices a concern.
Maximum apparent temperatures are expected to reach 100-105F across
the area again this afternoon, so make sure to stay hydrated, wear
sunscreen, and don`t leave kids or pets inside your car.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

A broad upper level ridge will remain in place over the
southeastern CONUS, along with decent moisture (PWAT values near
2") on Sunday evening. Although there will be a lack of upper
level forcing, a stationary front will be located over southern
Georgia through the eastern Big Bend region, which could maintain
scattered showers/thunderstorms in these areas through the evening.
Chances for showers and storms will decrease slightly on Monday,
as the front dissipates and drier air pushes into our area from
the northeast. Enough moisture will remain (especially over our
Florida counties) to maintain low chances of showers and storms,
mainly in the afternoon and early evening due to sea breeze
forcing. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will
improve Tuesday afternoon, as PWAT values increase to near 2"
over our area with moist southwesterly flow. Seasonably hot and
humid conditions will persist, with highs in the low-mid 90s
inland (upper 80s along the Gulf Coast), and lows/dewpoints in the
70s across our area.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

The pattern across the southeastern CONUS will shift at the
beginning of this period, with an upper level ridge replaced by a
trough digging southward into the northeastern Gulf. This will
lead to an enhanced chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday and Thursday across our region. A few strong to severe
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out each of these days, as 0-6 km
bulk shear should increase to at least 20 kts over parts of our
area, along with CAPE ranging from 1000-2000 J/kg. This
instability/shear combination would be somewhat sufficient for
organized multicellular thunderstorm development, and a quasi-
stationary front setting up over southern AL and GA will provide
forcing for convective initiation along with the sea breeze each
afternoon/evening.

Precipitation chances look slightly lower on Friday and during the
weekend, as drier air moves into our area and the aforementioned
front over AL/GA may retreat farther north. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms still are possible each afternoon and early evening,
especially across northern FL with sea breeze forcing. Highs will
range from the upper 80s to lower 90s throughout this period, with
lows generally in the low-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

Afternoon thunderstorm coverage is expected to be more widespread
today than the past week. Peak activity period is expected to be
between 18-02Z, with storms starting earlier in Florida and
lingering later into the evening in southwest Georgia. During
storms, visibilities and ceilings may drop, but will likely stay in
the MVFR-VFR range. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the period outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds will persist through early next week, increasing
slightly to 10-15 knots from Tuesday through the remainder of the
week. Seas are expected to remain around 2 feet or less throughout
the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Daytime dispersions will be low today due to weak transport winds.
Relative humidity values will remain above 40% for the next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   98  74  94  75  92 /  60  50  40  30  50
Panama City   90  78  89  79  87 /  20  30  40  30  50
Dothan        98  74  95  75  91 /  60  30  30  30  60
Albany        97  74  94  75  92 /  70  50  30  30  50
Valdosta      96  73  95  74  93 /  80  50  30  30  50
Cross City    95  74  91  75  91 /  60  50  50  40  50
Apalachicola  90  77  89  78  88 /  10  20  40  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTAE 260616
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
216 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Monday]...

Afternoon thunderstorm coverage is expected to be more widespread
today than the past week. Peak activity period is expected to be
between 18-02Z, with storms starting earlier in Florida and
lingering later into the evening in southwest Georgia. During
storms, visibilities and ceilings may drop, but will likely stay in
the MVFR-VFR range. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the period outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [757 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 1 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a frontal system
across north GA and SC, and a weak trough to its south across
central GA. For the first time in several days, scattered
thunderstorms entered our forecast area, as they developed in a low
layer convergence zone just south of the central GA trough.
(Curiously they developed in a region where objective analyses
showed rather unimpressive thermodynamics, relative to other
portions of the Southeast. A few of these storms were even
severe). Some of these storms will linger in southeast AL and
southwest GA this evening. Elsewhere the air above 850 mb
continued to be very dry, making deep moist convection unlikely.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

In general, the upper level pattern across the Southeast will
consist of a de-amplifying ridge as a northern stream waves moves
into the Upper Mississippi Valley. The only wrinkle will be a weak
shortwave moving south through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
tonight, entering the Southeast tomorrow. At the surface, a
frontal boundary was analyzed across central SC and northern GA
amid high pressure. Convection tomorrow will likely be forced by
both the upper wave and the surface front, and should begin across
our south Georgia counties, moving south-southwest through AL and
FL through the late afternoon. PoPs are forecast well above
normal tomorrow, in the 60-80% range. A consensus of the global
models as well as local and regional hires models would suggest
that the typical summertime severe weather parameters would favor
the potential for scattered strong to severe storms in the form of
damaging winds. While lapse rates are forecast to marginally
steep, the anomalously warm temperatures through the troposphere
will likely limit any severe hail threat. On Monday, the front
will be dissipating if not completely gone and the northeasterly
flow regime combined with near seasonal PWATs would favor a
typical regime 2 seabreeze with highest coverage south of
interstate 10 in Florida. All in all a much more wet couple of
days are expected than has been the case recently. Afternoon highs
are still forecast to be unseasonably high, reaching the upper 90s
area-wide on Sunday, before beginning to return to normal levels
to start the work-week.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The aforementioned northern stream wave, responsible for dampening
the ridge, will move slowly across the eastern half of the country
through next week. This will force a frontal boundary into the
Southeast, increasing rain chances. We`ll likely fall into a
pattern where storm complexes develop upstream along the front and
move into our region late each day, or if the front makes it far
enough south, storms will just form along it each afternoon across
the Tri-State region. Aside from the surface forcing, the presence
of a trough across the Southeast in the summertime, will likely
force at least a scattering of convection each day. In general,
PoPs are forecast to be above average, with high temps near
average each day.


.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected for the next
several days. The only exception will be near the coast each
afternoon in the seabreeze zone. Here, expect winds to peak around
10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   98  74  94  75  93 /  60  30  30  20  50
Panama City   89  77  87  77  87 /  30  10  20  10  30
Dothan        95  73  93  74  92 /  60  30  30  20  60
Albany        98  74  94  74  93 /  60  50  20  20  60
Valdosta      96  72  92  73  93 /  70  40  30  20  50
Cross City    95  73  92  74  91 /  60  30  40  20  40
Apalachicola  92  77  88  77  88 /  20  10  20  10  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260614
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
214 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...
South Florida remains under the influence of a Bermuda high, and
an upper level ridge. This will keep a typical summertime pattern
over South Florida through the TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop, but mainly affect the
interior and Gulf coast this afternoon. There is a slight chance
they could impact the airports along the southeast Florida
Atlantic coast, but it is too low to place in the TAFs at this
time. KAPF has a PROB30 for TSRA after 17z, through 23z, although
they may persist a little later into the evening hours. Otherwise,
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

UPDATE...Shower and thunderstorm coverage is diminishing late
this afternoon, so have reduced rain chances accordingly. Models
are in good agreement that all activity should be dissipated by
1-3z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Typical summer weather will prevail well into next
week as subtropical ridge dominates. Mainly sea-breeze driven
showers and thunderstorms will be most likely during the
afternoons over interior South Florida.

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon along Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. With mean
southeasterly flow, Atlantic breeze has penetrated through eastern
half of CWA, so expect additional convection to remain confined to
Collier, Hendry, Glades, and mainland Monroe counties through
early evening. Activity will diminish quickly after sunset.

SYNOPTICALLY, expansive subtropical ridge over the Gulf and
western Atlantic will dominate Florida weather in the short term.
Traditional wet season pattern is expected over the peninsula,
with convection firing midday, along the sea-breezes just inland
of the coasts, then spreading toward the interior through the
afternoons. East coast will likely see lowest coverage of
showers/thunderstorms, as southeasterly flow prevails.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...

Deep-layer ridging will continue to be main weather feature
impacting South Florida through the rest of the week, as there are
no significant mid-latitude systems or tropical waves forecast to
be close to the region. Diurnal convective development is
expected, with the focus being over interior South Florida.
Temperatures will remain seasonal for the end of June, with maxima
around 90F and minima in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

MARINE...Southeasterly flow will prevail much of next week. A few
thunderstorms are possible throughout the period, with greatest
coverage being over Lake Okeechobee during the afternoons. Aside
from locally higher winds and seas in and near convection, no
hazardous marine conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  76  89  75 /  20  30  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  78  88  78 /  20  20  30  30
Miami            91  78  89  77 /  20  20  40  30
Naples           91  75  88  75 /  40  20  50  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260614
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
214 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...
South Florida remains under the influence of a Bermuda high, and
an upper level ridge. This will keep a typical summertime pattern
over South Florida through the TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop, but mainly affect the
interior and Gulf coast this afternoon. There is a slight chance
they could impact the airports along the southeast Florida
Atlantic coast, but it is too low to place in the TAFs at this
time. KAPF has a PROB30 for TSRA after 17z, through 23z, although
they may persist a little later into the evening hours. Otherwise,
VFR conditions through the TAF period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

UPDATE...Shower and thunderstorm coverage is diminishing late
this afternoon, so have reduced rain chances accordingly. Models
are in good agreement that all activity should be dissipated by
1-3z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Typical summer weather will prevail well into next
week as subtropical ridge dominates. Mainly sea-breeze driven
showers and thunderstorms will be most likely during the
afternoons over interior South Florida.

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon along Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. With mean
southeasterly flow, Atlantic breeze has penetrated through eastern
half of CWA, so expect additional convection to remain confined to
Collier, Hendry, Glades, and mainland Monroe counties through
early evening. Activity will diminish quickly after sunset.

SYNOPTICALLY, expansive subtropical ridge over the Gulf and
western Atlantic will dominate Florida weather in the short term.
Traditional wet season pattern is expected over the peninsula,
with convection firing midday, along the sea-breezes just inland
of the coasts, then spreading toward the interior through the
afternoons. East coast will likely see lowest coverage of
showers/thunderstorms, as southeasterly flow prevails.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...

Deep-layer ridging will continue to be main weather feature
impacting South Florida through the rest of the week, as there are
no significant mid-latitude systems or tropical waves forecast to
be close to the region. Diurnal convective development is
expected, with the focus being over interior South Florida.
Temperatures will remain seasonal for the end of June, with maxima
around 90F and minima in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

MARINE...Southeasterly flow will prevail much of next week. A few
thunderstorms are possible throughout the period, with greatest
coverage being over Lake Okeechobee during the afternoons. Aside
from locally higher winds and seas in and near convection, no
hazardous marine conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  76  89  75 /  20  30  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  78  88  78 /  20  20  30  30
Miami            91  78  89  77 /  20  20  40  30
Naples           91  75  88  75 /  40  20  50  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 260600
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX detects isolated showers over the coastal waters of the Florida
Straits. Elsewhere, KBYX detects no precipitation echoes in the
remainder of the forecast area. Skies over the island chain are
partly cloudy. Winds over land are east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
C-MAN winds, on average, are east to southeast near 15 knots.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday night)...
A trough of low pressure will be located just off the southeast coast
of the United States today through Tuesday. An Atlantic ridge of high
pressure will build across south central Florida Tuesday night. No
discernible low level disturbances or synoptic scale lift will
result in a short term forecast based on climatology, with a 20 to 30
percent chance of rain, and high temperatures near 90 degrees, with
low temperatures near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)...
An Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across south central
Florida Wednesday through Thursday night. A low level disturbance
may move over the eastern portion of the Florida Straits Friday,
before passing through the Florida Keys Friday night into Saturday.
As a result, rain chances in the long term portion of the forecast
should be highest Friday through Saturday due to the anticipated
presence of this low level disturbance.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail on all Keys coastal
waters today. No advisories or cautionary headlines expected today
through at least Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for both the Key West and Marathon terminals.
Any showers that occur will likely remain north of the terminals, but
have included vicinity showers after 12z, with east to southeast
winds near 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1903, the low
temperature in Key West was 69 degrees. This set the daily record for
minimum temperature measured in Key West on June 26th, a record which
still stands 113 years later. Temperature records at Key West date
back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  89 81 89 80 / 20 30 30 30
Marathon  91 80 90 80 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at...
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest




000
FXUS62 KKEY 260600
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX detects isolated showers over the coastal waters of the Florida
Straits. Elsewhere, KBYX detects no precipitation echoes in the
remainder of the forecast area. Skies over the island chain are
partly cloudy. Winds over land are east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
C-MAN winds, on average, are east to southeast near 15 knots.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday night)...
A trough of low pressure will be located just off the southeast coast
of the United States today through Tuesday. An Atlantic ridge of high
pressure will build across south central Florida Tuesday night. No
discernible low level disturbances or synoptic scale lift will
result in a short term forecast based on climatology, with a 20 to 30
percent chance of rain, and high temperatures near 90 degrees, with
low temperatures near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)...
An Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across south central
Florida Wednesday through Thursday night. A low level disturbance
may move over the eastern portion of the Florida Straits Friday,
before passing through the Florida Keys Friday night into Saturday.
As a result, rain chances in the long term portion of the forecast
should be highest Friday through Saturday due to the anticipated
presence of this low level disturbance.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail on all Keys coastal
waters today. No advisories or cautionary headlines expected today
through at least Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for both the Key West and Marathon terminals.
Any showers that occur will likely remain north of the terminals, but
have included vicinity showers after 12z, with east to southeast
winds near 10 knots.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1903, the low
temperature in Key West was 69 degrees. This set the daily record for
minimum temperature measured in Key West on June 26th, a record which
still stands 113 years later. Temperature records at Key West date
back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  89 81 89 80 / 20 30 30 30
Marathon  91 80 90 80 / 20 30 30 30

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at...
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest




000
FXUS62 KTBW 260554
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
154 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016


.AVIATION...
Last of the evening storms ended with light winds and prevailing
VFR rest of the overnight hours. Summertime set up again for Sunday
with VFR and quiet AM conditions...but then rapid development of
scattered storms after 16-18Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 937 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

UPDATE...
01Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows an active northern
stream flow along the US/Canadian border this
evening...highlighted by a potent upper level disturbance moving
through the northern Plains/upper Midwest with a round of severe
weather. Downstream from this disturbance we find longwave ridging
in place across much of the eastern CONUS. This ridging extends
southward to cover the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula.

At the surface...the subtropical ridge axis continues to weakly
remain across our region...keeping the gradient light...and
allowing afternoon sea-breeze and thunderstorm outflow boundaries
to dominate the local winds.

This was certainly the case today as scattered storms developed
and migrated around at the whim of previous convective cold pools.
One likely final burst of cold pool generated convection is now
going across Sarasota and Manatee county...and is likely to
continue to evolve through 03Z. A couple of hours ago, it appeared
as though we were headed for an early end to the convection
compared to previous days...as the radar was becoming quiet.
However...these summer storms seem to always get the last laugh.
Just when you think they are done...here pops up another. Such is
the case with such abundant low level instability and such subtle
updraft generation.

Once these final stubborn storm are gone...the after midnight
hours look dry for all...with a typical warm and humid summer
night ahead. Have a great Saturday Night everyone!

Previous Discussion (Sunday)...
Tomorrow looks very similar to today, but greater storm coverage is
forecast. A slight increase in moisture along with a weakening of
the upper ridge should allow for more expansive storm coverage
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Similar to today, it is
likely we will see initial development around Tampa Bay with storms
building southward along the seabreeze thereafter. Inland areas also
look to see decent storm coverage as we remain in the light
southeast flow regime, which should allow the Atlantic coast
seabreeze to shift westward across much of the state. With a slight
weakening of the ridge aloft, and likely increase in cloud cover,
highs may come in a couple of degrees cooler than today, with lower
90s common.

With little steering flow, storm motion should be very slow and
primarily driven by outflow. With this in mind, and the fairly high
precipitable water values, heavy rainfall will be a concern, along
with frequent lightning and gusty winds.

MARINE... The subtropical ridge will remain in control of the
eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days with generally
light winds and seas outside of scattered thunderstorms. Later
Tuesday into Wednesday a weak cold front is expected to approach
the region from the north...but stall before making its passage
through the forecast waters. Westerly flow may briefly increase
ahead of this boundary along with increasing chances for storms,
however, no winds over 15 knots are currently forecast through
mid-week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  91  77  89  77 /  50  30  50  40
FMY  93  75  90  75 /  50  30  60  30
GIF  93  75  91  75 /  60  20  60  40
SRQ  89  76  89  76 /  40  30  40  30
BKV  93  73  91  73 /  50  40  50  30
SPG  91  78  90  78 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...25/Davis




000
FXUS62 KTBW 260554
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
154 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016


.AVIATION...
Last of the evening storms ended with light winds and prevailing
VFR rest of the overnight hours. Summertime set up again for Sunday
with VFR and quiet AM conditions...but then rapid development of
scattered storms after 16-18Z.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 937 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

UPDATE...
01Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows an active northern
stream flow along the US/Canadian border this
evening...highlighted by a potent upper level disturbance moving
through the northern Plains/upper Midwest with a round of severe
weather. Downstream from this disturbance we find longwave ridging
in place across much of the eastern CONUS. This ridging extends
southward to cover the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula.

At the surface...the subtropical ridge axis continues to weakly
remain across our region...keeping the gradient light...and
allowing afternoon sea-breeze and thunderstorm outflow boundaries
to dominate the local winds.

This was certainly the case today as scattered storms developed
and migrated around at the whim of previous convective cold pools.
One likely final burst of cold pool generated convection is now
going across Sarasota and Manatee county...and is likely to
continue to evolve through 03Z. A couple of hours ago, it appeared
as though we were headed for an early end to the convection
compared to previous days...as the radar was becoming quiet.
However...these summer storms seem to always get the last laugh.
Just when you think they are done...here pops up another. Such is
the case with such abundant low level instability and such subtle
updraft generation.

Once these final stubborn storm are gone...the after midnight
hours look dry for all...with a typical warm and humid summer
night ahead. Have a great Saturday Night everyone!

Previous Discussion (Sunday)...
Tomorrow looks very similar to today, but greater storm coverage is
forecast. A slight increase in moisture along with a weakening of
the upper ridge should allow for more expansive storm coverage
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Similar to today, it is
likely we will see initial development around Tampa Bay with storms
building southward along the seabreeze thereafter. Inland areas also
look to see decent storm coverage as we remain in the light
southeast flow regime, which should allow the Atlantic coast
seabreeze to shift westward across much of the state. With a slight
weakening of the ridge aloft, and likely increase in cloud cover,
highs may come in a couple of degrees cooler than today, with lower
90s common.

With little steering flow, storm motion should be very slow and
primarily driven by outflow. With this in mind, and the fairly high
precipitable water values, heavy rainfall will be a concern, along
with frequent lightning and gusty winds.

MARINE... The subtropical ridge will remain in control of the
eastern Gulf of Mexico for the next several days with generally
light winds and seas outside of scattered thunderstorms. Later
Tuesday into Wednesday a weak cold front is expected to approach
the region from the north...but stall before making its passage
through the forecast waters. Westerly flow may briefly increase
ahead of this boundary along with increasing chances for storms,
however, no winds over 15 knots are currently forecast through
mid-week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  91  77  89  77 /  50  30  50  40
FMY  93  75  90  75 /  50  30  60  30
GIF  93  75  91  75 /  60  20  60  40
SRQ  89  76  89  76 /  40  30  40  30
BKV  93  73  91  73 /  50  40  50  30
SPG  91  78  90  78 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...25/Davis




000
FXUS62 KKEY 260232
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1032 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - A surface ridge extending across the Florida Peninsula is
responsible for gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes across
the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. This evenings sounding
indicated near normal instability and deep layered moisture. There
are some layers that could provide some resistance, if not outright
inhibition. Shower activity across the forecast area has been nearly
entirely located over the deep gulf waters, and earlier emerged off
the Florida Peninsula.

Short Term Update - Gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail
overnight. This will keep temperatures a few degrees above normal,
with dew points in the mid 70s. Rain chances will remain near normal
at slight. No changes anticipated for the local forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail across
Florida Keys waters overnight due to a ridge extending across the
Florida Peninsula. No cautions or advisories are required. Only
removed wind transitional wording in the evening marine update.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected for both the Key West and Marathon terminals
overnight and Sunday with east to southeast winds up to 10 knots.


&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at...
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest




000
FXUS62 KTBW 260137
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
937 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
01Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis shows an active northern
stream flow along the US/Canadian border this
evening...highlighted by a potent upper level disturbance moving
through the northern Plains/upper Midwest with a round of severe
weather. Downstream from this disturbance we find longwave ridging
in place across much of the eastern CONUS. This ridging extends
southward to cover the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula.

At the surface...the subtropical ridge axis continues to weakly
remain across our region...keeping the gradient light...and
allowing afternoon sea-breeze and thunderstorm outflow boundaries
to dominate the local winds.

This was certainly the case today as scattered storms developed
and migrated around at the whim of previous convective cold pools.
One likely final burst of cold pool generated convection is now
going across Sarasota and Manatee county...and is likely to
continue to evolve through 03Z. A couple of hours ago, it appeared
as though we were headed for an early end to the convection
compared to previous days...as the radar was becoming quiet.
However...these summer storms seem to always get the last laugh.
Just when you think they are done...here pops up another. Such is
the case with such abundant low level instability and such subtle
updraft generation.

Once these final stubborn storm are gone...the after midnight
hours look dry for all...with a typical warm and humid summer
night ahead. Have a great Saturday Night everyone!

&&

.Previous Discussion (Sunday)...
Tomorrow looks very similar to today, but greater storm coverage is
forecast. A slight increase in moisture along with a weakening of
the upper ridge should allow for more expansive storm coverage
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Similar to today, it is
likely we will see initial development around Tampa Bay with storms
building southward along the seabreeze thereafter. Inland areas also
look to see decent storm coverage as we remain in the light
southeast flow regime, which should allow the Atlantic coast
seabreeze to shift westward across much of the state. With a slight
weakening of the ridge aloft, and likely increase in cloud cover,
highs may come in a couple of degrees cooler than today, with lower
90s common.

With little steering flow, storm motion should be very slow and
primarily driven by outflow. With this in mind, and the fairly high
precipitable water values, heavy rainfall will be a concern, along
with frequent lightning and gusty winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
Much of the evening storms have faded, but still dealing with with
a few stubborn leftovers near KSRQ through 03Z. Elsewhere, unless
more unexpected development occurs, the overnight will be dry with
light winds and prevailing VFR. Sunday look similar to
Saturday...with VFR and quiet AM conditions...but then rapid
development of scattered storms after 16-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge will remain in control of the eastern Gulf
of Mexico for the next several days with generally light winds and
seas outside of scattered thunderstorms. Later Tuesday into
Wednesday a weak cold front is expected to approach the region
from the north...but stall before making its passage through the
forecast waters. Westerly flow may briefly increase ahead of this
boundary along with increasing chances for storms, however, no
winds over 15 knots are currently forecast through mid-week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  91  77  89 /  30  50  30  50
FMY  75  93  75  90 /  30  50  30  60
GIF  76  93  75  91 /  40  60  20  60
SRQ  77  89  76  89 /  30  40  30  40
BKV  75  93  73  91 /  20  50  40  50
SPG  79  91  78  90 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Mroczka
Previous Discussion...Austin




000
FXUS62 KMLB 260123
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
920 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Current through tonight...early evening interaction between multiple
sea breeze and outflow boundaries across Lake/SW Orange/NW Osceola
Counties is produce isolated convection between Lake Apopka and the
attractions area. Some sporadic additional development is possible
for this area over the next 1-2hr, followed by clearing skies and
seasonably warm/humid wx. Evening ZFP/grid update will confined pops
to around the current small area of showers/storms. Otherwise, the
current forecast looks fine.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR for the rest of tonight as isolated convection
should occur away from the local aerodromes, save for a possible
shower/storm near KISM through 02Z-03Z. A little higher chance for
diurnal convection areawide along local sea/lake breezes. Timing for
highest chances looks to be about 17-20Z for the coastal aerodromes
and 21Z-24Z for the interior sites.

&&

.MARINE...Buoy and C-Man sites show winds out of the S to SSE with
seas in the 2-3ft range. Could see a modest nocturnal increase in
magnitude of winds overnight, but probably not enough to nudge seas
any higher than they currently are. Nosig changes for the MAOR other
than to adjust and push back precip chances.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...Cristaldi
RADAR/IMPACT WX...Bragaw

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

Sun...Further weakening of the subtropical ridge will bring even
higher rain chcs on Sunday in the form of afternoon storms. Light
westerly winds along with slight cooling aloft will promote rain
coverage to around 45 to 60 percent with inland spots more favored
for higher measured rain amounts through afternoon.

Mon-Fri...Frontal boundary north of the area weakens as ridge builds
back across southern half of Florida into early next week. Best
chance for showers and storms will continue over the interior where
sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions will be favored. Then into
mid-late week another front will move into the southeast U.S. and
shift ridge farther south. This will allow for a more predominant
W/SW flow that will increase overall moisture and concentrate
greatest convective coverage across east central Florida.

Highs will remain closer to normal through the work week with highs
in the upper 80s/around 90 along the coast to low 90s over the
interior. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT shra along with isold TS mnly along/near I-4 and across
interior sections of Osceola Co. to Lake Okeechobee into this eve.
Tempo MVFR conds in shra/tsra psbl in the affected locations.
Light onshore winds through dusk wl become VRBL tonight. Somewhat
higher rain chcs SUN wl have a greater chc of producing brief
cig/vsby reductions to both coastal and inland forecast sites
during afternoon into early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Sun...The slowly weakening ridge across south central
Florida will continue lighter winds and seas 2-3 ft and a
south/southwest gradient wind. With higher moisture areawide, expect
scattered showers and storms near the coast. Afternoon sea breeze
generated showers/storms should mainly occur mostly inland Sunday.

Mon-Wed...A weak front nears north FL Sunday and stalls before
building back into early this week. Then another front moves into
the southeast U.S. with ridge axis shifting south. Favorable boating
conditions are generally expected to continue with wind speeds
remaining below 15 knots and seas 1-3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  72  89 /  20  40  30  30
MCO  75  95  73  93 /  20  60  40  50
MLB  75  90  73  89 /  20  40  30  30
VRB  73  90  71  89 /  20  40  30  30
LEE  77  95  75  92 /  30  60  40  60
SFB  76  94  74  92 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  76  94  75  92 /  20  60  40  50
FPR  73  90  71  89 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KJAX 260054
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
854 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...Scattered showers/t-storms continue this evening across
ctrl-se GA in an unstable environment ahead of a cold front...
while activity has disssipated across nctrl FL. Hi-res guidance
suggests continued potential for widely scattered convection in
our eastern counties of SE GA for a few more hours...then mainly
over coastal waters later at night. Will adjust hourly pop grids
to follow this expected trend. Current low temp forecast looks
good.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected next 24 hrs. Indicated VCTS
in TAFs Sun afternoon given expectation of greater coverage of
afternoon showers/t-storms.

&&

.MARINE...No sig changes planned in next CWF issuance. South to
southwest winds will persist through tonight and then become
easterly Sunday as a weakening backdoor cold front sags south
into the waters. The front will dissipate with a south to
southwest flow resuming early next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  73  93 /  30  50  30  30
SSI  78  90  77  90 /  20  40  30  20
JAX  74  95  73  91 /  10  60  30  40
SGJ  76  91  74  89 /  20  40  50  40
GNV  73  94  73  92 /  10  60  50  60
OCF  73  94  73  91 /  10  60  50  60

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Wolf/Peterson/Shashy




000
FXUS62 KTAE 252357
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
757 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 1 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a frontal system
across north GA and SC, and a weak trough to its south across
central GA. For the first time in several days, scattered
thunderstorms entered our forecast area, as they developed in a low
layer convergence zone just south of the central GA trough.
(Curiously they developed in a region where objective analyses
showed rather unimpressive thermodynamics, relative to other
portions of the Southeast. A few of these storms were even
severe). Some of these storms will linger in southeast AL and
southwest GA this evening. Elsewhere the air above 850 mb
continued to be very dry, making deep moist convection unlikely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [730 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

In general, the upper level pattern across the Southeast will
consist of a de-amplifying ridge as a northern stream waves moves
into the Upper Mississippi Valley. The only wrinkle will be a weak
shortwave moving south through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
tonight, entering the Southeast tomorrow. At the surface, a
frontal boundary was analyzed across central SC and northern GA
amid high pressure. Convection tomorrow will likely be forced by
both the upper wave and the surface front, and should begin across
our south Georgia counties, moving south-southwest through AL and
FL through the late afternoon. PoPs are forecast well above
normal tomorrow, in the 60-80% range. A consensus of the global
models as well as local and regional hires models would suggest
that the typical summertime severe weather parameters would favor
the potential for scattered strong to severe storms in the form of
damaging winds. While lapse rates are forecast to marginally
steep, the anomalously warm temperatures through the troposphere
will likely limit any severe hail threat. On Monday, the front
will be dissipating if not completely gone and the northeasterly
flow regime combined with near seasonal PWATs would favor a
typical regime 2 seabreeze with highest coverage south of
interstate 10 in Florida. All in all a much more wet couple of
days are expected than has been the case recently. Afternoon highs
are still forecast to be unseasonably high, reaching the upper 90s
area-wide on Sunday, before beginning to return to normal levels
to start the work-week.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The aforementioned northern stream wave, responsible for dampening
the ridge, will move slowly across the eastern half of the country
through next week. This will force a frontal boundary into the
Southeast, increasing rain chances. We`ll likely fall into a
pattern where storm complexes develop upstream along the front and
move into our region late each day, or if the front makes it far
enough south, storms will just form along it each afternoon across
the Tri-State region. Aside from the surface forcing, the presence
of a trough across the Southeast in the summertime, will likely
force at least a scattering of convection each day. In general,
PoPs are forecast to be above average, with high temps near
average each day.


.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...

Isolated to scattered TSRA were translating WSW across south GA
and AL at 0030z. The periphery of some of these storms may
briefly affect KDHN and KABY through 02z; otherwise fair weather
with VFR conditions are likely through Sunday morning. Numerous
TSRA will develop across the region Sunday afternoon and evening,
with periods of MVFR-IFR Vis/cigs, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning.


.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected for the next
several days. The only exception will be near the coast each
afternoon in the seabreeze zone. Here, expect winds to peak around
10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  98  74  94  75 /  10  60  50  40  30
Panama City   77  90  78  89  79 /  10  20  30  40  30
Dothan        74  98  74  95  75 /  50  60  30  30  30
Albany        75  97  74  94  75 /  50  70  50  30  30
Valdosta      74  96  73  95  74 /  10  80  50  30  30
Cross City    74  95  74  91  75 /  10  60  50  50  40
Apalachicola  76  90  77  89  78 /  10  10  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTAE 252330
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
730 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...

Isolated to scattered TSRA were translating WSW across south GA
and AL at 0030z. The periphery of some of these storms may
briefly affect KDHN and KABY through 02z; otherwise fair weather
with VFR conditions are likely through Sunday morning. Numerous
TSRA will develop across the region Sunday afternoon and evening,
with periods of MVFR-IFR Vis/cigs, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing south of
a surface trough across central Georgia will move southeast into
northern portions of our CWA before dissipating this evening. The
best chance for convection will be north of a line from Dothan to
Valdosta. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear with patchy fog
possible in the pre-dawn hours. Lows will be in the middle 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

In general, the upper level pattern across the Southeast will
consist of a de-amplifying ridge as a northern stream waves moves
into the Upper Mississippi Valley. The only wrinkle will be a weak
shortwave moving south through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
tonight, entering the Southeast tomorrow. At the surface, a
frontal boundary was analyzed across central SC and northern GA
amid high pressure. Convection tomorrow will likely be forced by
both the upper wave and the surface front, and should begin across
our south Georgia counties, moving south-southwest through AL and
FL through the late afternoon. PoPs are forecast well above
normal tomorrow, in the 60-80% range. A consensus of the global
models as well as local and regional hires models would suggest
that the typical summertime severe weather parameters would favor
the potential for scattered strong to severe storms in the form of
damaging winds. While lapse rates are forecast to marginally
steep, the anomalously warm temperatures through the troposphere
will likely limit any severe hail threat. On Monday, the front
will be dissipating if not completely gone and the northeasterly
flow regime combined with near seasonal PWATs would favor a
typical regime 2 seabreeze with highest coverage south of
interstate 10 in Florida. All in all a much more wet couple of
days are expected than has been the case recently. Afternoon highs
are still forecast to be unseasonably high, reaching the upper 90s
area-wide on Sunday, before beginning to return to normal levels
to start the work-week.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The aforementioned northern stream wave, responsible for dampening
the ridge, will move slowly across the eastern half of the country
through next week. This will force a frontal boundary into the
Southeast, increasing rain chances. We`ll likely fall into a
pattern where storm complexes develop upstream along the front and
move into our region late each day, or if the front makes it far
enough south, storms will just form along it each afternoon across
the Tri-State region. Aside from the surface forcing, the presence
of a trough across the Southeast in the summertime, will likely
force at least a scattering of convection each day. In general,
PoPs are forecast to be above average, with high temps near
average each day.


.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected for the next
several days. The only exception will be near the coast each
afternoon in the seabreeze zone. Here, expect winds to peak around
10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  98  74  94  75 /  10  60  50  40  30
Panama City   77  90  78  89  79 /   0  20  30  40  30
Dothan        74  98  74  95  75 /  10  60  30  30  30
Albany        75  97  74  94  75 /  30  70  50  30  30
Valdosta      74  96  73  95  74 /  20  80  50  30  30
Cross City    74  95  74  91  75 /  10  60  50  50  40
Apalachicola  76  90  77  89  78 /   0  10  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTAE 252330
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
730 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Monday]...

Isolated to scattered TSRA were translating WSW across south GA
and AL at 0030z. The periphery of some of these storms may
briefly affect KDHN and KABY through 02z; otherwise fair weather
with VFR conditions are likely through Sunday morning. Numerous
TSRA will develop across the region Sunday afternoon and evening,
with periods of MVFR-IFR Vis/cigs, gusty winds, and frequent
lightning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing south of
a surface trough across central Georgia will move southeast into
northern portions of our CWA before dissipating this evening. The
best chance for convection will be north of a line from Dothan to
Valdosta. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear with patchy fog
possible in the pre-dawn hours. Lows will be in the middle 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

In general, the upper level pattern across the Southeast will
consist of a de-amplifying ridge as a northern stream waves moves
into the Upper Mississippi Valley. The only wrinkle will be a weak
shortwave moving south through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
tonight, entering the Southeast tomorrow. At the surface, a
frontal boundary was analyzed across central SC and northern GA
amid high pressure. Convection tomorrow will likely be forced by
both the upper wave and the surface front, and should begin across
our south Georgia counties, moving south-southwest through AL and
FL through the late afternoon. PoPs are forecast well above
normal tomorrow, in the 60-80% range. A consensus of the global
models as well as local and regional hires models would suggest
that the typical summertime severe weather parameters would favor
the potential for scattered strong to severe storms in the form of
damaging winds. While lapse rates are forecast to marginally
steep, the anomalously warm temperatures through the troposphere
will likely limit any severe hail threat. On Monday, the front
will be dissipating if not completely gone and the northeasterly
flow regime combined with near seasonal PWATs would favor a
typical regime 2 seabreeze with highest coverage south of
interstate 10 in Florida. All in all a much more wet couple of
days are expected than has been the case recently. Afternoon highs
are still forecast to be unseasonably high, reaching the upper 90s
area-wide on Sunday, before beginning to return to normal levels
to start the work-week.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The aforementioned northern stream wave, responsible for dampening
the ridge, will move slowly across the eastern half of the country
through next week. This will force a frontal boundary into the
Southeast, increasing rain chances. We`ll likely fall into a
pattern where storm complexes develop upstream along the front and
move into our region late each day, or if the front makes it far
enough south, storms will just form along it each afternoon across
the Tri-State region. Aside from the surface forcing, the presence
of a trough across the Southeast in the summertime, will likely
force at least a scattering of convection each day. In general,
PoPs are forecast to be above average, with high temps near
average each day.


.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected for the next
several days. The only exception will be near the coast each
afternoon in the seabreeze zone. Here, expect winds to peak around
10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  98  74  94  75 /  10  60  50  40  30
Panama City   77  90  78  89  79 /   0  20  30  40  30
Dothan        74  98  74  95  75 /  10  60  30  30  30
Albany        75  97  74  94  75 /  30  70  50  30  30
Valdosta      74  96  73  95  74 /  20  80  50  30  30
Cross City    74  95  74  91  75 /  10  60  50  50  40
Apalachicola  76  90  77  89  78 /   0  10  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252318
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
718 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...As with the previous few evenings, coverage of
showers and storms is rapidly diminishing as sunset approaches.
Light east flow and VFR conditions overnight at all sites.
Isolated showers and storms develop along east coast seabreeze
after 26/14Z, mainly west of the terminals. Scattered TS coverage
over interior during the afternoon and evening, potentially
affecting KAPF after 26/19Z. KAPF should see Gulf coast breeze
developing after 26/15Z with speeds 8-10kts with east coast
airports seeing seabreeze speeds 8-11kts. /ALM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 638 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

UPDATE...Shower and thunderstorm coverage is diminishing late
this afternoon, so have reduced rain chances accordingly. Models
are in good agreement that all activity should be dissipated by
1-3z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

SYNOPSIS...Typical summer weather will prevail well into next
week as subtropical ridge dominates. Mainly sea-breeze driven
showers and thunderstorms will be most likely during the
afternoons over interior South Florida.

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon along Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. With mean
southeasterly flow, Atlantic breeze has penetrated through eastern
half of CWA, so expect additional convection to remain confined to
Collier, Hendry, Glades, and mainland Monroe counties through
early evening. Activity will diminish quickly after sunset.

SYNOPTICALLY, expansive subtropical ridge over the Gulf and
western Atlantic will dominate Florida weather in the short term.
Traditional wet season pattern is expected over the peninsula,
with convection firing middays along the sea-breezes just inland
of the coasts, then spreading toward the interior through the
afternoons. East coast will likely see lowest coverage of
showers/thunderstorms, as southeasterly flow prevails.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...

Deep-layer ridging will continue to be main weather feature
impacting South Florida through the rest of the week, as there are
no significant mid-latitude systems or tropical waves forecast to
be close to the region. Diurnal convective development is
expected, with the focus being over interior South Florida.
Temperatures will remain seasonal for the end of June, with maxima
around 90F and minima in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

MARINE...Southeasterly flow will prevail much of next week. A few
thunderstorms are possible throughout the period, with greatest
coverage being over Lake Okeechobee during the afternoons. Aside
from locally higher winds and seas in and near convection, no
hazardous marine conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  90  76  89 /  10  20  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  78  88 /   0  20  20  30
Miami            80  91  78  89 /   0  20  20  40
Naples           76  91  75  88 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252238
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
638 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Shower and thunderstorm coverage is diminishing late this
afternoon, so have reduced rain chances accordingly. Models are in
good agreement that all activity should be dissipated by 1-3z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
Typical summer weather will prevail well into next week as
subtropical ridge dominates. Mainly sea-breeze driven showers and
thunderstorms will be most likely during the afternoons over
interior South Florida.

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon along Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. With mean
southeasterly flow, Atlantic breeze has penetrated through eastern
half of CWA, so expect additional convection to remain confined to
Collier, Hendry, Glades, and mainland Monroe counties through
early evening. Activity will diminish quickly after sunset.

Synoptically, expansive subtropical ridge over the Gulf and
western Atlantic will dominate Florida weather in the short term.
Traditional wet season pattern is expected over the peninsula,
with convection firing middays along the sea-breezes just inland
of the coasts, then spreading toward the interior through the
afternoons. East coast will likely see lowest coverage of
showers/thunderstorms, as southeasterly flow prevails.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...

Deep-layer ridging will continue to be main weather feature
impacting South Florida through the rest of the week, as there are
no significant mid-latitude systems or tropical waves forecast to
be close to the region. Diurnal convective development is
expected, with the focus being over interior South Florida.
Temperatures will remain seasonal for the end of June, with maxima
around 90F and minima in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

AVIATION...
The winds will remain easterly at 5 to 10 knots along the east
coast taf sites this afternoon before going light and variable
tonight. Some showers have developed over the east coast metro
areas early this afternoon which will push slowly inland through
rest of the afternoon hours. Therefore, VCSH will remain in the
east coast taf sites this afternoon before going dry tonight.

KAPF taf site will remain westerly at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon
before going light and variable tonight. Showers should start to
develop early this afternoon before thunderstorms kicks in late
this afternoon. Therefore, VCSH until 21Z then VCTS from 21Z until
23Z followed by VCSH from 23Z until 01Z. The weather should be dry
after 01Z tonight at KAPF taf site.

The ceiling and vis will also remain in VFR conditions at all of
the east coast taf sites. For KAPF taf site, the ceiling and vis
will be in VFR conditions most of the time but could fall into
MVFR or even IFR conditions with the passage of a shower or
thunderstorm.

MARINE...
Southeasterly flow will prevail much of next week. A few
thunderstorms are possible throughout the period, with greatest
coverage being over Lake Okeechobee during the afternoons. Aside
from locally higher winds and seas in and near convection, no
hazardous marine conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  90  76  89 /  10  20  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  78  88 /   0  20  20  30
Miami            80  91  78  89 /   0  20  20  40
Naples           76  91  75  88 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252238
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
638 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Shower and thunderstorm coverage is diminishing late this
afternoon, so have reduced rain chances accordingly. Models are in
good agreement that all activity should be dissipated by 1-3z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
Typical summer weather will prevail well into next week as
subtropical ridge dominates. Mainly sea-breeze driven showers and
thunderstorms will be most likely during the afternoons over
interior South Florida.

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon along Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. With mean
southeasterly flow, Atlantic breeze has penetrated through eastern
half of CWA, so expect additional convection to remain confined to
Collier, Hendry, Glades, and mainland Monroe counties through
early evening. Activity will diminish quickly after sunset.

Synoptically, expansive subtropical ridge over the Gulf and
western Atlantic will dominate Florida weather in the short term.
Traditional wet season pattern is expected over the peninsula,
with convection firing middays along the sea-breezes just inland
of the coasts, then spreading toward the interior through the
afternoons. East coast will likely see lowest coverage of
showers/thunderstorms, as southeasterly flow prevails.

LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...

Deep-layer ridging will continue to be main weather feature
impacting South Florida through the rest of the week, as there are
no significant mid-latitude systems or tropical waves forecast to
be close to the region. Diurnal convective development is
expected, with the focus being over interior South Florida.
Temperatures will remain seasonal for the end of June, with maxima
around 90F and minima in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

AVIATION...
The winds will remain easterly at 5 to 10 knots along the east
coast taf sites this afternoon before going light and variable
tonight. Some showers have developed over the east coast metro
areas early this afternoon which will push slowly inland through
rest of the afternoon hours. Therefore, VCSH will remain in the
east coast taf sites this afternoon before going dry tonight.

KAPF taf site will remain westerly at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon
before going light and variable tonight. Showers should start to
develop early this afternoon before thunderstorms kicks in late
this afternoon. Therefore, VCSH until 21Z then VCTS from 21Z until
23Z followed by VCSH from 23Z until 01Z. The weather should be dry
after 01Z tonight at KAPF taf site.

The ceiling and vis will also remain in VFR conditions at all of
the east coast taf sites. For KAPF taf site, the ceiling and vis
will be in VFR conditions most of the time but could fall into
MVFR or even IFR conditions with the passage of a shower or
thunderstorm.

MARINE...
Southeasterly flow will prevail much of next week. A few
thunderstorms are possible throughout the period, with greatest
coverage being over Lake Okeechobee during the afternoons. Aside
from locally higher winds and seas in and near convection, no
hazardous marine conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  90  76  89 /  10  20  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  78  88 /   0  20  20  30
Miami            80  91  78  89 /   0  20  20  40
Naples           76  91  75  88 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252026
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
426 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summer weather will prevail well into next week as
subtropical ridge dominates. Mainly sea-breeze driven showers and
thunderstorms will be most likely during the afternoons over
interior South Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon along Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. With mean
southeasterly flow, Atlantic breeze has penetrated through eastern
half of CWA, so expect additional convection to remain confined to
Collier, Hendry, Glades, and mainland Monroe counties through
early evening. Activity will diminish quickly after sunset.

Synoptically, expansive subtropical ridge over the Gulf and
western Atlantic will dominate Florida weather in the short term.
Traditional wet season pattern is expected over the peninsula,
with convection firing middays along the sea-breezes just inland
of the coasts, then spreading toward the interior through the
afternoons. East coast will likely see lowest coverage of
showers/thunderstorms, as southeasterly flow prevails.

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...

Deep-layer ridging will continue to be main weather feature
impacting South Florida through the rest of the week, as there are
no significant mid-latitude systems or tropical waves forecast to
be close to the region. Diurnal convective development is
expected, with the focus being over interior South Florida.
Temperatures will remain seasonal for the end of June, with maxima
around 90F and minima in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
The winds will remain easterly at 5 to 10 knots along the east
coast taf sites this afternoon before going light and variable
tonight. Some showers have developed over the east coast metro
areas early this afternoon which will push slowly inland through
rest of the afternoon hours. Therefore, VCSH will remain in the
east coast taf sites this afternoon before going dry tonight.

KAPF taf site will remain westerly at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon
before going light and variable tonight. Showers should start to
develop early this afternoon before thunderstorms kicks in late
this afternoon. Therefore, VCSH until 21Z then VCTS from 21Z until
23Z followed by VCSH from 23Z until 01Z. The weather should be dry
after 01Z tonight at KAPF taf site.

The ceiling and vis will also remain in VFR conditions at all of
the east coast taf sites. For KAPF taf site, the ceiling and vis
will be in VFR conditions most of the time but could fall into
MVFR or even IFR conditions with the passage of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeasterly flow will prevail much of next week. A few
thunderstorms are possible throughout the period, with greatest
coverage being over Lake Okeechobee during the afternoons. Aside
from locally higher winds and seas in and near convection, no
hazardous marine conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  90  76  89 /  10  20  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  78  88 /   0  20  20  30
Miami            80  91  78  89 /   0  20  20  40
Naples           76  91  75  88 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252026
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
426 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summer weather will prevail well into next week as
subtropical ridge dominates. Mainly sea-breeze driven showers and
thunderstorms will be most likely during the afternoons over
interior South Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday night/...

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon along Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes. With mean
southeasterly flow, Atlantic breeze has penetrated through eastern
half of CWA, so expect additional convection to remain confined to
Collier, Hendry, Glades, and mainland Monroe counties through
early evening. Activity will diminish quickly after sunset.

Synoptically, expansive subtropical ridge over the Gulf and
western Atlantic will dominate Florida weather in the short term.
Traditional wet season pattern is expected over the peninsula,
with convection firing middays along the sea-breezes just inland
of the coasts, then spreading toward the interior through the
afternoons. East coast will likely see lowest coverage of
showers/thunderstorms, as southeasterly flow prevails.

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...

Deep-layer ridging will continue to be main weather feature
impacting South Florida through the rest of the week, as there are
no significant mid-latitude systems or tropical waves forecast to
be close to the region. Diurnal convective development is
expected, with the focus being over interior South Florida.
Temperatures will remain seasonal for the end of June, with maxima
around 90F and minima in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
The winds will remain easterly at 5 to 10 knots along the east
coast taf sites this afternoon before going light and variable
tonight. Some showers have developed over the east coast metro
areas early this afternoon which will push slowly inland through
rest of the afternoon hours. Therefore, VCSH will remain in the
east coast taf sites this afternoon before going dry tonight.

KAPF taf site will remain westerly at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon
before going light and variable tonight. Showers should start to
develop early this afternoon before thunderstorms kicks in late
this afternoon. Therefore, VCSH until 21Z then VCTS from 21Z until
23Z followed by VCSH from 23Z until 01Z. The weather should be dry
after 01Z tonight at KAPF taf site.

The ceiling and vis will also remain in VFR conditions at all of
the east coast taf sites. For KAPF taf site, the ceiling and vis
will be in VFR conditions most of the time but could fall into
MVFR or even IFR conditions with the passage of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&

.MARINE...
Southeasterly flow will prevail much of next week. A few
thunderstorms are possible throughout the period, with greatest
coverage being over Lake Okeechobee during the afternoons. Aside
from locally higher winds and seas in and near convection, no
hazardous marine conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  90  76  89 /  10  20  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  78  88 /   0  20  20  30
Miami            80  91  78  89 /   0  20  20  40
Naples           76  91  75  88 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KJAX 251950
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
350 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Near Term /Through Sunday/...
Another hot day across the region, with temperatures in the 90s,
and a couple places in southeast Georgia were near or have reached
100 degrees. Storms were beginning to pop in Marion County and
interior southeast Georgia. Isolated to widely scattered showers
and storms are expected through the rest of the afternoon. Storms
that develop across southeast Georgia will be capable of producing
gusty winds. Showers and storms may continue to develop in the
late evening and into the overnight hours, mainly across southeast
Georgia, as a weak surface front/trough moves into the area.
Otherwise, warm and muggy overnight temperatures are forecast,
with lows in the low to mid 70s.

The eastern flank of the upper level ridge centered over the
Arklatex region this evening will remain stationary through Sunday
before weakening and shifting west. North to northeast flow will
prevail in the upper levels, with weak flow in the low to mid
levels. At the surface, the ridge over the western Atlantic, with
ridge axis towards central Florida, will shift further east into
the Atlantic, and a weak ridge will wedge down the Mid Atlantic
and into the southeast due to a weak surface trough pushing into
southeast Georgia. Low level moisture will increase with
precipitable water values increasing to 1.8-2 inches. Light flow
will allow sea breeze boundaries to move inland, with scattered to
numerous afternoon and early evening showers and storms across the
region.

.Short Term /Sunday night through Monday night/...
A weak frontal boundary will become stationary near the FL/GA
border on Sunday evening as high pressure remains parked along
the U.S. eastern seaboard. Evening convection along the I-75
corridor will gradually wane, with the global models depicting
some additional positive vorticity advection moving onshore
within a deep NE flow pattern that may trigger scattered
nocturnal convection over portions of north central and coastal
northeast FL. Convection elsewhere should dissipate during the
mid to late evening hours. Lows will fall to the low/mid 70s.

High pressure along the U.S. eastern seaboard will only slowly
depart eastward into the western Atlantic on Monday and Monday
night, keeping a weak and stalled frontal boundary in place
near the FL/GA border. Deep layered flow will veer to an E/SE
direction, with convection developing south of the frontal
boundary by early afternoon and shifting inland into the Suwannee
Valley and inland north central FL while becoming numerous in
coverage by late afternoon. Slightly drier air aloft over
southeast GA will limit activity to isolated or widely scattered.
Highs will climb into the low/mid 90s inland, with highs near 90
at the coast where onshore winds will strengthen to 10-15 mph
during the afternoon behind the inland-moving seabreeze.

A trough aloft will begin to dig southeastward from the Great
Lakes states on Monday night, which will send a cold front
southward into the Tennessee Valley overnight. A sliver of
remaining drier mid-level air will remain situated over southeast
GA, which will help to quickly wind down any remaining early
evening convection. Isolated to widely scattered convection will
remain possible overnight for location south of the remnant
frontal boundary, especially along the I-75 corridor. Lows will
again only fall to the low/mid 70s.

.Long Term /Tuesday through Saturday/...
Troughing aloft will become established over the eastern half of
the nation during this time period, which will result in a
deepening SW flow pattern aloft locally. Moisture will pool just
to the south of a frontal boundary that will push into central GA
by late Tuesday, stalling across southeast GA by late Wednesday
and Thursday. This weather pattern will create scattered to
numerous thunderstorms, mainly along sea breeze boundaries, with
slow moving activity expected on Tuesday and then a more defined
northeastward motion, generally at 15-20 mph, expected from
Wednesday through Saturday. Activity may get an early start over
the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor on Wednesday and Thursday
as long-term models suggest that nocturnal convection will ignite
over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and move inland during the
morning hours.

Seasonably hot temperatures may linger into Tuesday, with low to
mid 90s inland and near 90 at the coast as convection gets a later
start as we remain well south of the frontal boundary. With the
boundary in place over our region and the potential for early
morning convection moving inland, highs Wed/Thurs should be held
down to the upper 80s to near 90. Some deamplification of the
eastern U.S. trough late in the week into next weekend may result
in convective development later in the day, with highs climbing
back into the lower 90s inland and upper 80s/near 90 at the coast.
Lows throughout the long-term period will remain in the low/mid
70s.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the period. East coast
sea breeze will continue pushing inland this afternoon with
southeast winds increasing to around 10 knots. Light south to
southwesterly flow will prevail overnight. Showers/storms could
get near KSSI this evening. Storms are possible near the end of
the TAF period on Sunday near the TAF sites.

&&

.Marine...
South to southwest winds will persist through tonight and then
become easterly Sunday as a weakening backdoor cold front sags
south into the waters. The front will dissipate with a south to
southwest flow resuming early next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  73  93 /  30  50  30  30
SSI  78  90  77  90 /  20  40  30  20
JAX  74  95  73  91 /  10  60  30  40
SGJ  76  91  74  89 /  10  40  50  40
GNV  73  94  73  92 /  20  60  50  60
OCF  73  94  73  91 /  20  60  50  60

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Appling-Bacon-
     Brantley-Charlton-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Inland
     Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Nelson/Shashy




000
FXUS62 KTAE 251936
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
336 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing south of
a surface trough across central Georgia will move southeast into
northern portions of our CWA before dissipating this evening. The
best chance for convection will be north of a line from Dothan to
Valdosta. Otherwise, skies will be mostly clear with patchy fog
possible in the pre-dawn hours. Lows will be in the middle 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

In general, the upper level pattern across the Southeast will
consist of a de-amplifying ridge as a northern stream waves moves
into the Upper Mississippi Valley. The only wrinkle will be a weak
shortwave moving south through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
tonight, entering the Southeast tomorrow. At the surface, a
frontal boundary was analyzed across central SC and northern GA
amid high pressure. Convection tomorrow will likely be forced by
both the upper wave and the surface front, and should begin across
our south Georgia counties, moving south-southwest through AL and
FL through the late afternoon. PoPs are forecast well above
normal tomorrow, in the 60-80% range. A consensus of the global
models as well as local and regional hires models would suggest
that the typical summertime severe weather parameters would favor
the potential for scattered strong to severe storms in the form of
damaging winds. While lapse rates are forecast to marginally
steep, the anomalously warm temperatures through the troposphere
will likely limit any severe hail threat. On Monday, the front
will be dissipating if not completely gone and the northeasterly
flow regime combined with near seasonal PWATs would favor a
typical regime 2 seabreeze with highest coverage south of
interstate 10 in Florida. All in all a much more wet couple of
days are expected than has been the case recently. Afternoon highs
are still forecast to be unseasonably high, reaching the upper 90s
area-wide on Sunday, before beginning to return to normal levels
to start the work-week.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

The aforementioned northern stream wave, responsible for dampening
the ridge, will move slowly across the eastern half of the country
through next week. This will force a frontal boundary into the
Southeast, increasing rain chances. We`ll likely fall into a
pattern where storm complexes develop upstream along the front and
move into our region late each day, or if the front makes it far
enough south, storms will just form along it each afternoon across
the Tri-State region. Aside from the surface forcing, the presence
of a trough across the Southeast in the summertime, will likely
force at least a scattering of convection each day. In general,
PoPs are forecast to be above average, with high temps near
average each day.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms developing
ahead of a front in central Georgia will move southeastward through
this evening and may briefly impact the DHN, ABY and VLD terminals.
Overnight, a brief period of MVFR VSBYs is possible at VLD.
Otherwise, VFR conditions and light or calm winds will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected for the next
several days. The only exception will be near the coast each
afternoon in the seabreeze zone. Here, expect winds to peak around
10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  98  74  94  75 /  10  60  50  40  30
Panama City   77  90  78  89  79 /   0  20  30  40  30
Dothan        74  98  74  95  75 /  10  60  30  30  30
Albany        75  97  74  94  75 /  30  70  50  30  30
Valdosta      74  96  73  95  74 /  20  80  50  30  30
Cross City    74  95  74  91  75 /  10  60  50  50  40
Apalachicola  76  90  77  89  78 /   0  10  20  40  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251929
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
329 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight-Sun...A more substantial CU field over much of the area
marks a slightly better setup for mid to late afternoon precip
development once boundaries interact. Scattered slow moving
showers and embedded storms are expected mainly west of I-95 and
along the I-4 corridor through late evening, primarily once
larger boundaries fold together this evening. Affected areas will
see moderate to heavy rain along with occasional to frequent
lightning and development of standing water at low spots.

Precipitation will diminish late tonight and further weakening of
the subtropical ridge will bring even higher rain chcs on Sunday
in the form of afternoon storms. Light westerly winds along with
slight cooling aloft will promote rain coverage to around 45 to 60
percent with inland spots more favored for higher measured rain
amounts through afternoon.

MON-FRI...(from prev disc) Frontal boundary north of the area
weakens as ridge builds back across southern half of Florida into
early next week. Best chance for showers and storms will continue
over the interior where sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions
will be favored. Then into mid-late week another front will move
into the southeast U.S. and shift ridge farther south. This will
allow for a more predominant W/SW flow that will increase overall
moisture and concentrate greatest convective coverage across east
central Florida.

Highs will remain closer to normal through the work week with highs
in the upper 80s/around 90 along the coast to low 90s over the
interior. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT shra along with isold TS mnly along/near I-4 and across
interior sections of Osceola Co. to Lake Okeechobee into this eve.
Tempo MVFR conds in shra/tsra psbl in the affected locations.
Light onshore winds through dusk wl become VRBL tonight. Somewhat
higher rain chcs SUN wl have a greater chc of producing brief
cig/vsby reductions to both coastal and inland forecast sites
during afternoon into early evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Sunday...The slowly weakening ridge across south central
Florida will continue lighter winds and seas 2-3 ft and a south/southwest
gradient wind. With higher moisture areawide, expect scattered showers
and storms near the coast. Afternoon sea breeze generated
showers/storms should mainly occur mostly inland Sunday.

MON-WED...A weak front nears north FL Sunday and stalls before
building back into early this week. Then another front moves into
the southeast U.S. with ridge axis shifting south. Favorable
boating conditions are generally expected to continue with wind
speeds remaining below 15 knots and seas 1-3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  72  89 /  20  40  30  30
MCO  75  95  73  93 /  20  60  40  50
MLB  75  90  73  89 /  20  40  30  30
VRB  73  90  71  89 /  20  40  30  30
LEE  77  95  75  92 /  30  60  40  60
SFB  76  94  74  92 /  20  50  40  40
ORL  76  94  75  92 /  20  60  40  50
FPR  73  90  71  89 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

JP/WU




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251926
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
326 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today and Sunday)...
A broad upper level ridge extends from the Southern Plains across
the northern Gulf coast and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Along
the northern edge of this ridge, a strong shortwave trough is moving
along the Canadian border, threatening severe weather across portions
of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening.
Weak troughing is also apparent across New England.

Showers and storms got a rather early start today within an
increasingly moist troposphere. Low level south/southeast winds
favored an active seabreeze with storms firing first across Pinellas
and Hillsborough counties, with other more spotty activity along the
Suncoast.

For the remainder of the day, expect east and west coast seabreezes
will eventually converge somewhere across west central into
southwest Florida, serving as a focus for additional thunderstorm
activity. Then, as is typically common within prevailing light
southeast flow regimes, outflow from inland storms may initiate a
westward moving boundary that could kick off a few more storms
before eventually moving offshore this evening and tonight.

Tonight will be a typically humid and muggy night with lows in the
mid to upper 70s in most areas. Much like last night, a rather
expansive area of marine showers and storms may occur of the
Suncoast.

Tomorrow looks very similar to today, but greater storm coverage is
forecast. A slight increase in moisture along with a weakening of
the upper ridge should allow for more expansive storm coverage
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Similar to today, it is
likely we will see initial development around Tampa Bay with storms
building southward along the seabreeze thereafter. Inland areas also
look to see decent storm coverage as we remain in the light
southeast flow regime, which should allow the Atlantic coast
seabreeze to shift westward across much of the state. With a slight
weakening of the ridge aloft, and likely increase in cloud cover,
highs may come in a couple of degrees cooler than today, with lower
90s common.

With little steering flow, storm motion should be very slow and
primarily driven by outflow. With this in mind, and the fairly high
precipitable water values, heavy rainfall will be a concern, along
with frequent lightning and gusty winds.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
A broad area of upper level ridging extends eastward from eastern
Texas to the southeast U.S. and into the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge
will weaken and retrograde westward by late Monday as a deepening
trough located over the Great Lakes region begins to move
southeast and dig in over the eastern third of the U.S. Once the
trough moves into the region, it will further deepen and linger
over the area through the end of next week. On the surface, high
pressure located near Bermuda ridges back westward over the
Florida peninsula to another high pressure center in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. The high will hold control over the region through
the middle of next week when a weak cold front moves in from the
northwest. This weak front will move slowly through the area with
most of it`s effects felt over northern Florida.

So for the associated weather over the period, the winds will be
light for the start of the long term period which will allow for a
sea breeze to develop along both the west and east coast. This
will cause the highest chances of showers and storms to develop
over the interior counties where the boundaries converge through
Tuesday. On Wednesday, with the approach of the upper level trough
and front to the north, the winds will shift to a more onshore
west southwest flow. This will allow for the highest rain and
storm chances to shift slightly more eastward as the west coast
sea breeze pushes farther inland. This pattern will remain
unchanged through the end of the week and into the weekend. With
the upper level pattern not showing a lot of amplitude change, no
temperature changes are expected, even with the weak front
approaching the area. Daytime highs will remain in the upper 80s
to low 90s, while overnight lows will remain in the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18z TAFs)...
Scattered shra/tsra will continue through the early evening
hours. Will maintain VCTS as confidence in any single terminal
being impacted remains low. Brief vsby restrictions to sub-ifr
possible in the stronger storms, along with gusty winds. Lingering
shra/tsra should shift offshore this evening, with generally vfr
conditions and light/variable winds from 01z through 14z. Tomorrow
will be much the same as today, with shra/tsra developing again
between 15z and 16z.


&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain settled over the waters with relatively
light and variable winds over the next several days. Winds will
shift onshore each afternoon with the seabreeze. A few nocturnal
and/or early morning thunderstorms will be possible, which may
locally enhance winds and seas. By mid to late next week, a front
will approach the waters from the north, allowing the surface
ridge to slide southward. This will result in a prevailing west to
southwest wind direction, though wind speeds look to remain light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A deep moist airmass will remain in place over the region. This
coupled with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will keep
afternoon humidities relatively high, and will prevent any fire
weather concerns over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  91  77  89 /  40  50  30  50
FMY  75  93  75  90 /  30  50  30  60
GIF  76  93  75  91 /  30  60  20  60
SRQ  77  89  76  89 /  30  40  30  40
BKV  75  93  73  91 /  20  50  40  50
SPG  79  91  78  90 /  40  40  30  50

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn




000
FXUS62 KKEY 251824
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
223 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Skies are partly to mostly sunny with temperatures in the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees along the Florida Keys. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting
only isolated showers and a few thunderstorms in our county warning area.
Surface wise, a narrow ridge is draped across North Central Florida and the
adjacent waters, resulting in east to southeast winds of around 10 knots
except slightly higher on the Florida Straits.

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday)...
A fairly benign weather pattern will persist with a moderate and deep
easterly flow slowly decelerating over the next several days. Without
no discernible low level undulations or significant large scale lift,
ample low level moisture will prompt 20 to 30 percent pops to be kept. With
that said, it appears cloud line genesis will be the primary daytime
precipitation source with lingering leftover boundaries being the
primary nocturnal precipitation source. See no reason to stray from
daytime highs near 90 and overnight lows near 80 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Saturday)...
Little change in the overall pattern with a Western Atlantic ridge draped
into the southern half of the Florida peninsula, with a minor low level
perturbation perhaps approaching our region late in the period. For
now, will retain 20 to 30 percent pops with high temperatures averaging
near 90 degrees and overnight lows near 80.

&&

.MARINE...
A minor wind increase will overspread our entire marine district late
this afternoon through early tonight, but no headlines or advisory
seem likely. For the end of this weekend and well into next week, light
to gentle winds will predominate before becoming light on all Keys
coastal waters by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms could bring in potentially sub-
VFR conditions to both the Key West and Marathon terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist for the remainder of the TAF
period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1992, 5.14 inches of rain fell at Key West International Airport.
This set the daily record for maximum rainfall as well as the wettest
day in June ever. Rainfall records at Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  82 89 81 90/ 20 20 30 30
Marathon  81 91 80 9 / 20 20 30 30

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....EV
DATA ACQUISITION......DR

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at...
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest




000
FXUS62 KTAE 251758
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
158 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
devloping ahead of a front in central Georgia will move
southeastward through this evening and may briefly impact the DHN,
ABY and VLD terminals. Overnight, a brief period of MVFR VSBYs is
possible at VLD. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light or calm
winds will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [929 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Another hot day with highs in the upper 90s and heat indices
expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along a weak surface front/trough that
extends east to west across central Georgia. The mean 1000-700mb
flow is light from the northwest so a few storms may reach our
forecast area by late afternoon or early evening. The best chance
for seeing any convection (30%) will be our northeast Georgia
zones and an isolated strong to briefly severe storm is possible.
Additionally, an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out generally along and south of I-10 as the sea breeze develops
and struggles to advance inland against the opposing flow. No
changes were made to the current forecast package.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Increased moisture will result in a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday than during the
previous several days, with PWAT values rising well above 1.5"
across our area. As usual during the summer, precipitation chances
will be maximized during peak heating hours of the afternoon and
early evening. With a fairly late start to convective initiation
expected on Sunday, however, high temperatures could still reach
the mid-upper 90s inland, along with heat indices topping out in
the 100-105 range. The heat will persist through Monday, although
it should be a couple degrees cooler with highs in the low-mid
90s. Lows during this period will generally be in the mid-70s
inland and in the upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue each
day through this period as a typical humid summertime airmass
settles over our area, and the diurnal sea breeze pattern enhances
convection over land each afternoon/early evening. Upper level
forcing may also play a role in aiding thunderstorm development
during the second half of this period, as a trough is projected to
dip into the southeastern CONUS from Thursday through Saturday.
While widespread severe storms are not expected throughout this
period, the best chance at seeing a couple strong/severe storms
would be during this time, when shear would be slightly enhanced
over our area. Highs in the lower 90s will prevail over our inland
locations with upper 80s near the coast each day. Lows will be in
the low-mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the coast.


.MARINE...

Light winds generally between 5-10 knots will lead to seas of 1-2
feet or less for the next several days.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity and rain chances will increase this weekend as we
return to a more normal summertime pattern. No red flag conditions
are expected for the next week.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  97  74  93  75 /  10  40  40  30  30
Panama City   77  88  77  88  77 /   0  20  20  30  30
Dothan        74  96  74  94  75 /  10  40  30  30  30
Albany        75  97  74  95  74 /  30  50  30  30  30
Valdosta      74  95  73  92  74 /  20  60  40  30  20
Cross City    74  94  73  91  74 /  10  50  30  50  30
Apalachicola  76  89  77  88  77 /   0  20  20  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTAE 251758
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
158 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Sunday]...

Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms
devloping ahead of a front in central Georgia will move
southeastward through this evening and may briefly impact the DHN,
ABY and VLD terminals. Overnight, a brief period of MVFR VSBYs is
possible at VLD. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light or calm
winds will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [929 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Another hot day with highs in the upper 90s and heat indices
expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along a weak surface front/trough that
extends east to west across central Georgia. The mean 1000-700mb
flow is light from the northwest so a few storms may reach our
forecast area by late afternoon or early evening. The best chance
for seeing any convection (30%) will be our northeast Georgia
zones and an isolated strong to briefly severe storm is possible.
Additionally, an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out generally along and south of I-10 as the sea breeze develops
and struggles to advance inland against the opposing flow. No
changes were made to the current forecast package.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Increased moisture will result in a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday than during the
previous several days, with PWAT values rising well above 1.5"
across our area. As usual during the summer, precipitation chances
will be maximized during peak heating hours of the afternoon and
early evening. With a fairly late start to convective initiation
expected on Sunday, however, high temperatures could still reach
the mid-upper 90s inland, along with heat indices topping out in
the 100-105 range. The heat will persist through Monday, although
it should be a couple degrees cooler with highs in the low-mid
90s. Lows during this period will generally be in the mid-70s
inland and in the upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue each
day through this period as a typical humid summertime airmass
settles over our area, and the diurnal sea breeze pattern enhances
convection over land each afternoon/early evening. Upper level
forcing may also play a role in aiding thunderstorm development
during the second half of this period, as a trough is projected to
dip into the southeastern CONUS from Thursday through Saturday.
While widespread severe storms are not expected throughout this
period, the best chance at seeing a couple strong/severe storms
would be during this time, when shear would be slightly enhanced
over our area. Highs in the lower 90s will prevail over our inland
locations with upper 80s near the coast each day. Lows will be in
the low-mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the coast.


.MARINE...

Light winds generally between 5-10 knots will lead to seas of 1-2
feet or less for the next several days.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity and rain chances will increase this weekend as we
return to a more normal summertime pattern. No red flag conditions
are expected for the next week.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  97  74  93  75 /  10  40  40  30  30
Panama City   77  88  77  88  77 /   0  20  20  30  30
Dothan        74  96  74  94  75 /  10  40  30  30  30
Albany        75  97  74  95  74 /  30  50  30  30  30
Valdosta      74  95  73  92  74 /  20  60  40  30  20
Cross City    74  94  73  91  74 /  10  50  30  50  30
Apalachicola  76  89  77  88  77 /   0  20  20  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251743
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
143 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION (18z TAFs)...
Scattered afternoon shra/tsra continue from KTPA south to KFMY
vicinity. Will maintain VCTS as confidence in any single terminal
being impacted remains low. Brief vsby restrictions to sub-ifr
possible in the stronger storms, along with gusty winds. Lingering
shra/tsra should shift offshore this evening, with generally vfr
conditions and light/variable winds from 01z through 14z. Tomorrow
will be much the same as today, with shra/tsra developing again
between 15z and 16z.

84/Austin

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 1009 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

MORNING UPDATE...
A rather expansive area of shower and thunderstorm activity
continues this morning about 10 to 15 miles off the southwest
Florida coastline. As the land breeze circulation diminishes late
this morning into this afternoon, expect this area to generally
diminish. Today looks to be another hot one as upper ridging
remains fairly strong across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures look to rise into the low to mid 90s inland, and the
upper 80s to near 90 along the coast. As moisture has deepened
across the region, as shown by a pwat of 1.81 inches on the 12z
sounding from KTBW, expect perhaps greater coverage of
thunderstorms this afternoon as opposed to yesterday and the day
before. We will likely see a few isolated storms develop by around
noon or shortly thereafter, from Pinellas and Hillsborough
counties, southward along the coast as the seabreeze moves inland.
Activity then looks to become more pervasive over interior
portions of the peninsula south of I-4. Gusty winds and lightning,
along with heavy rainfall can be expected with most afternoon
thunderstorms. Storms should weaken a couple of hours after sunset
with increasing stability.

As for the forecast, the only changes made were to increase PoPs
where showers and storms currently exist, and tweak hourly winds
and cloud cover grids.

AVIATION (12z TAFs)...
Light east to southeast winds will continue this morning with sct
vfr cigs developing by late morning. Winds will shift to the west
as the sea breeze moves inland at near-coastal terminals, with sct
tsra developing in the 17z to 19z timeframe. Storms should
diminish by 03z Sun with a return of east winds and vfr
conditions.

MARINE...
Ongoing showers and storms off of Charlotte and Lee counties may
generate some gusty winds and locally higher seas over the next
couple of hours. Thereafter, light east to southeast winds will
shift onshore this afternoon with the seabreeze. Evening and
overnight thunderstorms will be possible again this evening and
overnight, with otherwise light east to southeast winds.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  79  91  77 /  70  20  50  30
FMY  92  76  93  75 /  60  30  60  30
GIF  95  76  93  75 /  40  30  60  30
SRQ  90  76  90  75 /  30  20  40  20
BKV  94  74  92  73 /  40  20  50  30
SPG  92  79  91  77 /  70  20  40  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251743
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
143 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION (18z TAFs)...
Scattered afternoon shra/tsra continue from KTPA south to KFMY
vicinity. Will maintain VCTS as confidence in any single terminal
being impacted remains low. Brief vsby restrictions to sub-ifr
possible in the stronger storms, along with gusty winds. Lingering
shra/tsra should shift offshore this evening, with generally vfr
conditions and light/variable winds from 01z through 14z. Tomorrow
will be much the same as today, with shra/tsra developing again
between 15z and 16z.

84/Austin

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 1009 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

MORNING UPDATE...
A rather expansive area of shower and thunderstorm activity
continues this morning about 10 to 15 miles off the southwest
Florida coastline. As the land breeze circulation diminishes late
this morning into this afternoon, expect this area to generally
diminish. Today looks to be another hot one as upper ridging
remains fairly strong across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures look to rise into the low to mid 90s inland, and the
upper 80s to near 90 along the coast. As moisture has deepened
across the region, as shown by a pwat of 1.81 inches on the 12z
sounding from KTBW, expect perhaps greater coverage of
thunderstorms this afternoon as opposed to yesterday and the day
before. We will likely see a few isolated storms develop by around
noon or shortly thereafter, from Pinellas and Hillsborough
counties, southward along the coast as the seabreeze moves inland.
Activity then looks to become more pervasive over interior
portions of the peninsula south of I-4. Gusty winds and lightning,
along with heavy rainfall can be expected with most afternoon
thunderstorms. Storms should weaken a couple of hours after sunset
with increasing stability.

As for the forecast, the only changes made were to increase PoPs
where showers and storms currently exist, and tweak hourly winds
and cloud cover grids.

AVIATION (12z TAFs)...
Light east to southeast winds will continue this morning with sct
vfr cigs developing by late morning. Winds will shift to the west
as the sea breeze moves inland at near-coastal terminals, with sct
tsra developing in the 17z to 19z timeframe. Storms should
diminish by 03z Sun with a return of east winds and vfr
conditions.

MARINE...
Ongoing showers and storms off of Charlotte and Lee counties may
generate some gusty winds and locally higher seas over the next
couple of hours. Thereafter, light east to southeast winds will
shift onshore this afternoon with the seabreeze. Evening and
overnight thunderstorms will be possible again this evening and
overnight, with otherwise light east to southeast winds.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  79  91  77 /  70  20  50  30
FMY  92  76  93  75 /  60  30  60  30
GIF  95  76  93  75 /  40  30  60  30
SRQ  90  76  90  75 /  30  20  40  20
BKV  94  74  92  73 /  40  20  50  30
SPG  92  79  91  77 /  70  20  40  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251716 AAC
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
116 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
The winds will remain easterly at 5 to 10 knots along the east
coast taf sites this afternoon before going light and variable
tonight. Some showers have developed over the east coast metro
areas early this afternoon which will push slowly inland through
rest of the afternoon hours. Therefore, VCSH will remain in the
east coast taf sites this afternoon before going dry tonight.

KAPF taf site will remain westerly at 5 to 10 knots this afternoon
before going light and variable tonight. Showers should start to
develop early this afternoon before thunderstorms kicks in late
this afternoon. Therefore, VCSH until 21Z then VCTS from 21Z until
23Z followed by VCSH from 23Z until 01Z. The weather should be dry
after 01Z tonight at KAPF taf site.

The ceiling and vis will also remain in VFR conditions at all of
the east coast taf sites. For KAPF taf site, the ceiling and vis
will be in VFR conditions most of the time but could fall into
MVFR or even IFR conditions with the passage of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1023 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

UPDATE...
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic waters today
keeping an easterly wind flow over South Florida. This will allow
for the east coast sea breeze to develop and push inland, while
the west coast sea breeze remains over the west coast metro areas
of South Florida. The atmosphere is also unstable today with the
CAPE around 3700 J/KG with a lifted high temperature around 90
degrees over most of South Florida. Therefore, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
into this evening over the interior and west coast metro areas.
The east coast metro areas can still see some showers and even a
thunderstorm mainly over the western portions late this morning
into early this afternoon before pushing inland with the east
coast sea breeze.

There is some mid level dry air over South Florida today which
could help to generate some strong storms this afternoon into this
evening over the interior and west coast metro areas. The primary
impacts from the strong storms will be gusty winds, frequent
lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. Therefore, will add
the strong thunderstorm wording into the HWO morning update for
the interior and west coast metro areas for today.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 737 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

AVIATION...
The winds will be from the southeast today around 10 knots over
the east coast taf sites of South Florida. Most of the storms
could be west of the east coast taf sites today, so will only
carry VCSH for the east coast taf sites.

KAPF taf site will see an easterly wind around 5 knots this
morning before swinging to a westerly direction at 5 to 10 knots
this afternoon, as the west coast sea breeze develops and pushes
inland. The weather will remain dry through this morning before
there is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Therefore, VCTS
will be introduce to KAPF taf site for the afternoon hours today.

The ceiling and vis will remain in the VFR conditions today for
all of the taf sites, but could fall down into MVFR or even IFR
conditions at KAPF taf site with any passage of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Today-Monday: Upper ridge in control of the Southeast plains
slowly retrograde westward this weekend. Meanwhile near the
surface, a weak pressure gradient keeps a light easterly flow
across South Fl. Conditions are favorable for another round of
afternoon convection with scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the interior progressing westward through the afternoon hours.
East coast areas will generally remain dry, but can`t rule out a
shower or two as outflows push back east. Given the relatively
warm atmosphere and drier mid levels, main storm concern will be
frequent lightning with some locally heavy rainfall given the slow
storm movement. Showers and storms diminish through the evening
hours, with a few Atlantic and east coast showers overnight.

High concentration of moisture wrap around the periphery of the
high pressure in addition to a weak upper level wave will enhance
additional convection through Monday with the potential of a few
storms becoming strong in the afternoon hours Sunday and Monday.
Light easterly flow will continue to keep the highest coverage
over the western interior and just inland from the Gulf coast
where the east coast breeze collides with the weaker Gulf coast
breeze. The main concern will continue to be the lightning
activity and locally heavy rainfall with gusty winds. Upper level
trough digs over eastern US, but overall pattern will remain weak.
Another round of convection continues into Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds begin to veer into mid week towards the Southeast.

Overall forecast remains similar to the weekend with scattered
showers and storms each afternoon. With more southerly flow,
highest rain chances will gradually shift towards the interior as
Gulf breeze gets a little more inland penetration. Temperatures
will be warmer aloft after upper level wave passes by, so don`t
expect any enhanced threat for stronger storms at this time for
the week.

AVIATION...VFR prevails at all terminals, and should continue
through the rest of the overnight hours. A few showers can be
observed on radar over the Atlantic offshore waters, but so far
convection remains very sparse and limited to the coastal waters.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are again expected in the vicinity
of the terminals Saturday afternoon, along with winds turning
onshore on APF with sea breeze circulations.

MARINE...Easterly flow will prevail through the early portion of
the forecast period with low seas as ridge remains in control of
the region. Convection will be possible through the period with a
few stronger storms Sunday and Monday. Seas will range between 1
to 2 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  78  89  76 /  30  20  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  90  78 /  20  20  30  30
Miami            91  79  90  78 /  30  20  30  30
Naples           90  76  91  75 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KKEY 251429
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1030 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Early visible satellite photographs show skies are mostly sunny with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s along the island chain. Meanwhile,
local radars are detecting only isolated small showers across our
county warning area. Surface wise, a narrow ridge is aligned across
North Central Florida and the adjacent nearshore atlantic and gulf waters.
Winds are east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots on our coastal waters.
Otherwise, our morning sounding reveals a typically moist airmass
(pwat 2.12 inches) with a moderate to fresh southeast trajectory reaching
well into the troposphere.

.SHORT TERM (Rest of today)...
In wake of a subtle low level undulation, drier air will filter into our
region from the Bahamas and the adjacent waters. Plenty of insolation
within a light to gentle east to southeast wind will allow high temperatures
to climb near 90 degrees. Since the forecast was updated earlier to lower
pops into the isolated range, no additional adjustment is planned.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate winds with the highest on the Florida Straits can
be expected for the balance of today, before a slight increase overspreads
our marine district tonight. Otherwise, only isolated showers and a possible
thunderstorm is anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both terminals throughout
the remainder of the TAF period. Passing showers may bring sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1992, 5.14 inches of rain was recorded at the Key West airport which
is the wettest day ever in the month of June. Rainfall records have
been kept since 1871.

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....EV
DATA COLLECTION.......DR

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at...
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest




000
FXUS62 KKEY 251429
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1030 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Early visible satellite photographs show skies are mostly sunny with
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s along the island chain. Meanwhile,
local radars are detecting only isolated small showers across our
county warning area. Surface wise, a narrow ridge is aligned across
North Central Florida and the adjacent nearshore atlantic and gulf waters.
Winds are east to southeast at 10 to 15 knots on our coastal waters.
Otherwise, our morning sounding reveals a typically moist airmass
(pwat 2.12 inches) with a moderate to fresh southeast trajectory reaching
well into the troposphere.

.SHORT TERM (Rest of today)...
In wake of a subtle low level undulation, drier air will filter into our
region from the Bahamas and the adjacent waters. Plenty of insolation
within a light to gentle east to southeast wind will allow high temperatures
to climb near 90 degrees. Since the forecast was updated earlier to lower
pops into the isolated range, no additional adjustment is planned.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate winds with the highest on the Florida Straits can
be expected for the balance of today, before a slight increase overspreads
our marine district tonight. Otherwise, only isolated showers and a possible
thunderstorm is anticipated.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both terminals throughout
the remainder of the TAF period. Passing showers may bring sub-VFR
conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1992, 5.14 inches of rain was recorded at the Key West airport which
is the wettest day ever in the month of June. Rainfall records have
been kept since 1871.

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....EV
DATA COLLECTION.......DR

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at...
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251423 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1023 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic waters today
keeping an easterly wind flow over South Florida. This will allow
for the east coast sea breeze to develop and push inland, while
the west coast sea breeze remains over the west coast metro areas
of South Florida. The atmosphere is also unstable today with the
CAPE around 3700 J/KG with a lifted high temperature around 90
degrees over most of South Florida. Therefore, scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
into this evening over the interior and west coast metro areas.
The east coast metro areas can still see some showers and even a
thunderstorm mainly over the western portions late this morning
into early this afternoon before pushing inland with the east
coast sea breeze.

There is some mid level dry air over South Florida today which
could help to generate some strong storms this afternoon into this
evening over the interior and west coast metro areas. The primary
impacts from the strong storms will be gusty winds, frequent
lightning strikes, and locally heavy rainfall. Therefore, will add
the strong thunderstorm wording into the HWO morning update for
the interior and west coast metro areas for today.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes
are planned.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 737 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

AVIATION...
The winds will be from the southeast today around 10 knots over
the east coast taf sites of South Florida. Most of the storms
could be west of the east coast taf sites today, so will only
carry VCSH for the east coast taf sites.

KAPF taf site will see an easterly wind around 5 knots this
morning before swinging to a westerly direction at 5 to 10 knots
this afternoon, as the west coast sea breeze develops and pushes
inland. The weather will remain dry through this morning before
there is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Therefore, VCTS
will be introduce to KAPF taf site for the afternoon hours today.

The ceiling and vis will remain in the VFR conditions today for
all of the taf sites, but could fall down into MVFR or even IFR
conditions at KAPF taf site with any passage of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Today-Monday: Upper ridge in control of the Southeast plains
slowly retrograde westward this weekend. Meanwhile near the
surface, a weak pressure gradient keeps a light easterly flow
across South Fl. Conditions are favorable for another round of
afternoon convection with scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the interior progressing westward through the afternoon hours.
East coast areas will generally remain dry, but can`t rule out a
shower or two as outflows push back east. Given the relatively
warm atmosphere and drier mid levels, main storm concern will be
frequent lightning with some locally heavy rainfall given the slow
storm movement. Showers and storms diminish through the evening
hours, with a few Atlantic and east coast showers overnight.

High concentration of moisture wrap around the periphery of the
high pressure in addition to a weak upper level wave will enhance
additional convection through Monday with the potential of a few
storms becoming strong in the afternoon hours Sunday and Monday.
Light easterly flow will continue to keep the highest coverage
over the western interior and just inland from the Gulf coast
where the east coast breeze collides with the weaker Gulf coast
breeze. The main concern will continue to be the lightning
activity and locally heavy rainfall with gusty winds. Upper level
trough digs over eastern US, but overall pattern will remain weak.
Another round of convection continues into Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds begin to veer into mid week towards the Southeast.

Overall forecast remains similar to the weekend with scattered
showers and storms each afternoon. With more southerly flow,
highest rain chances will gradually shift towards the interior as
Gulf breeze gets a little more inland penetration. Temperatures
will be warmer aloft after upper level wave passes by, so don`t
expect any enhanced threat for stronger storms at this time for
the week.

AVIATION...VFR prevails at all terminals, and should continue
through the rest of the overnight hours. A few showers can be
observed on radar over the Atlantic offshore waters, but so far
convection remains very sparse and limited to the coastal waters.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are again expected in the vicinity
of the terminals Saturday afternoon, along with winds turning
onshore on APF with sea breeze circulations.

MARINE...Easterly flow will prevail through the early portion of
the forecast period with low seas as ridge remains in control of
the region. Convection will be possible through the period with a
few stronger storms Sunday and Monday. Seas will range between 1
to 2 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  78  89  76 /  30  20  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  90  78 /  20  20  30  30
Miami            91  79  90  78 /  30  20  30  30
Naples           90  76  91  75 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251409
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1009 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.MORNING UPDATE...
A rather expansive area of shower and thunderstorm activity
continues this morning about 10 to 15 miles off the southwest
Florida coastline. As the land breeze circulation diminishes late
this morning into this afternoon, expect this area to generally
diminish. Today looks to be another hot one as upper ridging
remains fairly strong across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures look to rise into the low to mid 90s inland, and the
upper 80s to near 90 along the coast. As moisture has deepened
across the region, as shown by a pwat of 1.81 inches on the 12z
sounding from KTBW, expect perhaps greater coverage of
thunderstorms this afternoon as opposed to yesterday and the day
before. We will likely see a few isolated storms develop by around
noon or shortly thereafter, from Pinellas and Hillsborough
counties, southward along the coast as the seabreeze moves inland.
Activity then looks to become more pervasive over interior
portions of the peninsula south of I-4. Gusty winds and lightning,
along with heavy rainfall can be expected with most afternoon
thunderstorms. Storms should weaken a couple of hours after sunset
with increasing stability.

As for the forecast, the only changes made were to increase PoPs
where showers and storms currently exist, and tweak hourly winds
and cloud cover grids.

&&

.AVIATION (12z TAFs)...
Light east to southeast winds will continue this morning with sct
vfr cigs developing by late morning. Winds will shift to the west
as the sea breeze moves inland at near-coastal terminals, with sct
tsra developing in the 17z to 19z timeframe. Storms should
diminish by 03z Sun with a return of east winds and vfr
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Ongoing showers and storms off of Charlotte and Lee counties may
generate some gusty winds and locally higher seas over the next
couple of hours. Thereafter, light east to southeast winds will
shift onshore this afternoon with the seabreeze. Evening and
overnight thunderstorms will be possible again this evening and
overnight, with otherwise light east to southeast winds.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  79  91  77 /  40  20  50  30
FMY  92  76  93  75 /  50  30  60  30
GIF  95  76  93  75 /  40  30  60  30
SRQ  90  76  90  75 /  30  20  40  20
BKV  94  74  92  73 /  40  20  50  30
SPG  92  79  91  77 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
UPPER AIR...09/Rude
DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251409
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1009 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.MORNING UPDATE...
A rather expansive area of shower and thunderstorm activity
continues this morning about 10 to 15 miles off the southwest
Florida coastline. As the land breeze circulation diminishes late
this morning into this afternoon, expect this area to generally
diminish. Today looks to be another hot one as upper ridging
remains fairly strong across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Temperatures look to rise into the low to mid 90s inland, and the
upper 80s to near 90 along the coast. As moisture has deepened
across the region, as shown by a pwat of 1.81 inches on the 12z
sounding from KTBW, expect perhaps greater coverage of
thunderstorms this afternoon as opposed to yesterday and the day
before. We will likely see a few isolated storms develop by around
noon or shortly thereafter, from Pinellas and Hillsborough
counties, southward along the coast as the seabreeze moves inland.
Activity then looks to become more pervasive over interior
portions of the peninsula south of I-4. Gusty winds and lightning,
along with heavy rainfall can be expected with most afternoon
thunderstorms. Storms should weaken a couple of hours after sunset
with increasing stability.

As for the forecast, the only changes made were to increase PoPs
where showers and storms currently exist, and tweak hourly winds
and cloud cover grids.

&&

.AVIATION (12z TAFs)...
Light east to southeast winds will continue this morning with sct
vfr cigs developing by late morning. Winds will shift to the west
as the sea breeze moves inland at near-coastal terminals, with sct
tsra developing in the 17z to 19z timeframe. Storms should
diminish by 03z Sun with a return of east winds and vfr
conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Ongoing showers and storms off of Charlotte and Lee counties may
generate some gusty winds and locally higher seas over the next
couple of hours. Thereafter, light east to southeast winds will
shift onshore this afternoon with the seabreeze. Evening and
overnight thunderstorms will be possible again this evening and
overnight, with otherwise light east to southeast winds.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  79  91  77 /  40  20  50  30
FMY  92  76  93  75 /  50  30  60  30
GIF  95  76  93  75 /  40  30  60  30
SRQ  90  76  90  75 /  30  20  40  20
BKV  94  74  92  73 /  40  20  50  30
SPG  92  79  91  77 /  30  20  40  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...84/Austin
UPPER AIR...09/Rude
DECISION SUPPORT...74/Wynn




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251353
AFDMLB

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
954 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A slowly weakening high pressure ridge in proximity to the area will
keep light gradient flow conditions in place. Sounding data from XMR
shows little change in the local moisture and temperature profile
over the past 24h. The current regime will once again lead to
development of dominant east/west coast breeze boundaries with
eventual inland collisions with slow moving mid to late afternoon
storm continuation through dusk. Morning showers at the coast will
transition inland with breeze progression and the main threats will
be occasional lightning along with locally heavy rain

Moistening to near to above normal PWAT in current regime will
promote initial showers along immediate Space/Treasure coasts before
convection propagates well inland mid-late afternoon. Max temps
should still reach the mid 90s interior and around 90 along the
coast. Heat indices will again reach a little over 100, which is
close to average. Rain cooling or outflow boundary passage should
limit the duration of these max heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION...(prev disc) Mainly VFR expected into late morning. East
coast sea breeze convection may form close enough to the coast to
affect KVRB-KSUA around midday to early afternoon, then the activity
will shift inland. Interior and north coast terminals should have
chances a little later in the afternoon. Scattered storms will move
little, tending to form and produce a quick burst of lightning and
downpours, then gradually rain themselves out.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure ridge will extend across the
waters and provide a southeast/south wind flow about 10 knots or
less. Seas will continue 3 feet or less. Weak atmospheric wind
fields should cause afternoon thunderstorms to stay over the
mainland, but a few could form close enough to the Volusia coast
to affect boating.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

JP/WU




000
FXUS62 KJAX 251338
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
938 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
12Z sounding this morning continued to show very warm and dry mid
levels with a freezing level over 16.6 kft. Westerly low to mid
level flow was also noted, with northwesterly upper level flow. A
couple showers developed along the border of St. John`s and Flagler
counties this morning, but they were very shallow as they moved
off to the east. The I-10 corridor had the driest air with
precipitable water values less than 1.6 inches, and this region is
likely to remain dry until this evening when moisture begins to
increase from the north. Further south into southern northeast
Florida and north central Florida, moisture levels were higher,
and scattered showers and storms are possible there this afternoon
as the sea breeze moves inland. For southeast Georgia, a weak cold
front will push southward across central Georgia and South
Carolina today, and moisture will begin to increase. Storms are
likely to fire along and south of the front this afternoon and
evening, with isolated to scattered storms developing/moving into
southeast Georgia. Some of the storms could be strong to severe,
with the main threat being downbursts due to the dry air aloft.

It will be a hot day today, with temperatures in the mid 90s to
around 100 degrees. Dewpoints may mix out into the mid/upper 60s
across the I-10 corridor where the driest air aloft resides, with
dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. Heat indices will
range from 100-105F across northeast Florida and up to 110F across
southeast Georgia, where a Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11
am until 7 pm.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail again today with light
southwest winds, becoming southeast near the east coast this
afternoon. Isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms possible at
TAF sites. Included VCTS at KSSI after 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest winds will persist through tonight and then
become easterly Sunday as a weakening backdoor cold front sags
south into the waters. The front will dissipate with a south to
southwest flow resuming early next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk today and Sunday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  99  74  95  73 /  30  30  50  20
SSI  93  77  90  76 /  20  30  40  20
JAX  97  76  94  74 /  20  20  60  30
SGJ  90  75  91  75 /  20  20  40  30
GNV  94  73  95  73 /  30  20  60  30
OCF  94  74  94  73 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Appling-Bacon-
     Brantley-Charlton-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Inland
     Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy//Guillet




000
FXUS62 KTAE 251329
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
929 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Another hot day with highs in the upper 90s and heat indices
expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along a weak surface front/trough that
extends east to west across central Georgia. The mean 1000-700mb
flow is light from the northwest so a few storms may reach our
forecast area by late afternoon or early evening. The best chance
for seeing any convection (30%) will be our northeast Georgia
zones and an isolated strong to briefly severe storm is possible.
Additionally, an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out generally along and south of I-10 as the sea breeze develops
and struggles to advance inland against the opposing flow. No
changes were made to the current forecast package.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Increased moisture will result in a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday than during the
previous several days, with PWAT values rising well above 1.5"
across our area. As usual during the summer, precipitation chances
will be maximized during peak heating hours of the afternoon and
early evening. With a fairly late start to convective initiation
expected on Sunday, however, high temperatures could still reach
the mid-upper 90s inland, along with heat indices topping out in
the 100-105 range. The heat will persist through Monday, although
it should be a couple degrees cooler with highs in the low-mid
90s. Lows during this period will generally be in the mid-70s
inland and in the upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue each
day through this period as a typical humid summertime airmass
settles over our area, and the diurnal sea breeze pattern enhances
convection over land each afternoon/early evening. Upper level
forcing may also play a role in aiding thunderstorm development
during the second half of this period, as a trough is projected to
dip into the southeastern CONUS from Thursday through Saturday.
While widespread severe storms are not expected throughout this
period, the best chance at seeing a couple strong/severe storms
would be during this time, when shear would be slightly enhanced
over our area. Highs in the lower 90s will prevail over our inland
locations with upper 80s near the coast each day. Lows will be in
the low-mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the coast.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
in parts of south Georgia and the Florida Peninsula. For our TAF
sites, the most likely to be affected site is ABY, although there is
a small chance (around 20%) near DHN and VLD as well. Outside of
thunderstorms, conditions are expected to remain VFR through the
period with light winds generally from the southwest that will calm
overnight. Some of the guidance suggests there may be some fog
tomorrow morning in north FL, but confidence was too low to include
in the TAF package at this time.


.MARINE...

Light winds generally between 5-10 knots will lead to seas of 1-2
feet or less for the next several days.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity and rain chances will increase this weekend as we
return to a more normal summertime pattern. No red flag conditions
are expected for the next week.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   98  74  97  74  93 /  10  10  40  40  30
Panama City   88  77  88  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30
Dothan        97  74  96  74  94 /  10  10  40  30  30
Albany        98  75  97  74  95 /  20  20  50  30  30
Valdosta      98  74  95  73  92 /  20  10  60  40  30
Cross City    95  74  94  73  91 /  10  10  50  30  50
Apalachicola  90  76  89  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTAE 251329
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
929 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Another hot day with highs in the upper 90s and heat indices
expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along a weak surface front/trough that
extends east to west across central Georgia. The mean 1000-700mb
flow is light from the northwest so a few storms may reach our
forecast area by late afternoon or early evening. The best chance
for seeing any convection (30%) will be our northeast Georgia
zones and an isolated strong to briefly severe storm is possible.
Additionally, an isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out generally along and south of I-10 as the sea breeze develops
and struggles to advance inland against the opposing flow. No
changes were made to the current forecast package.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Increased moisture will result in a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday than during the
previous several days, with PWAT values rising well above 1.5"
across our area. As usual during the summer, precipitation chances
will be maximized during peak heating hours of the afternoon and
early evening. With a fairly late start to convective initiation
expected on Sunday, however, high temperatures could still reach
the mid-upper 90s inland, along with heat indices topping out in
the 100-105 range. The heat will persist through Monday, although
it should be a couple degrees cooler with highs in the low-mid
90s. Lows during this period will generally be in the mid-70s
inland and in the upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue each
day through this period as a typical humid summertime airmass
settles over our area, and the diurnal sea breeze pattern enhances
convection over land each afternoon/early evening. Upper level
forcing may also play a role in aiding thunderstorm development
during the second half of this period, as a trough is projected to
dip into the southeastern CONUS from Thursday through Saturday.
While widespread severe storms are not expected throughout this
period, the best chance at seeing a couple strong/severe storms
would be during this time, when shear would be slightly enhanced
over our area. Highs in the lower 90s will prevail over our inland
locations with upper 80s near the coast each day. Lows will be in
the low-mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the coast.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
in parts of south Georgia and the Florida Peninsula. For our TAF
sites, the most likely to be affected site is ABY, although there is
a small chance (around 20%) near DHN and VLD as well. Outside of
thunderstorms, conditions are expected to remain VFR through the
period with light winds generally from the southwest that will calm
overnight. Some of the guidance suggests there may be some fog
tomorrow morning in north FL, but confidence was too low to include
in the TAF package at this time.


.MARINE...

Light winds generally between 5-10 knots will lead to seas of 1-2
feet or less for the next several days.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity and rain chances will increase this weekend as we
return to a more normal summertime pattern. No red flag conditions
are expected for the next week.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   98  74  97  74  93 /  10  10  40  40  30
Panama City   88  77  88  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30
Dothan        97  74  96  74  94 /  10  10  40  30  30
Albany        98  75  97  74  95 /  20  20  50  30  30
Valdosta      98  74  95  73  92 /  20  10  60  40  30
Cross City    95  74  94  73  91 /  10  10  50  30  50
Apalachicola  90  76  89  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTBW 251142
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
742 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION (12z TAFs)...
Light east to southeast winds will continue this morning with sct
vfr cigs developing by late morning. Winds will shift to the west
as the sea breeze moves inland at near-coastal terminals, with sct
tsra developing in the 17z to 19z timeframe. Storms should
diminish by 03z Sun with a return of east winds and vfr
conditions.

84/Austin

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 337 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday...
Broad upper ridge over the Gulf Coast region this morning to
slowly retrograde westward to the Lower Mississippi River Valley
by 00Z Sunday as upper trough in the Western Atlantic becomes a
weak closed low off New England. Weak NW-N upper flow between
features over the state with weak vort maxes dropping into the
area. Weak Western Atlantic surface ridging back into the area
while a frontal boundary stays well N of the area. All features to
combine with increasing atmospheric moisture in weak steering
flow to generate scattered afternoon into evening sea breeze and
boundary interaction convection this afternoon then increasing in
coverage Sunday. Warm and humid summertime conditions expected
with temperatures within a few degrees of climatological normals.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Friday)...
In the mid and upper levels ridging will hold across the region
through Monday then for the rest of the week a trough will develop
over the eastern United States. Meanwhile at the surface, high
pressure will continue to ridge westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the southeast states through Monday then this becomes
suppressed southward for the remainder of the week as a cool front
associated with the trough sinks into the southeast states and
stalls to our north.

For the beginning of the period from Sunday night into Monday night
we will continue to see a rather light east to southeast flow with
the sea breezes developing by midday and moving inland. Scattered
convection Sunday evening will drift back toward the west coast and
wind down as the night progresses. On Monday abundant moisture is
expected across the region leading to scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms along the sea breeze/outflow boundaries beginning
around midday and continuing into the evening hours. Temperatures
will be near normal with overnight lows mostly in the 70s and
daytime highs in the upper 80s close to the coast to the lower 90s
inland.

For Tuesday through Friday a southwest to west flow will become
established across the region and with plenty of moisture in place
we will begin to see isolated to scattered convection over the
coastal waters late each night moving onshore through the morning
hours then becoming scattered to numerous over inland areas during
the afternoon and evening. The highest pops will be over the
interior and eastern portions of the Florida peninsula where the
best sea breeze collision is expected late each day into the evening
hours. Daytime high temperatures will remain close to normal in the
upper 80s near the coast to the lower 90s inland with overnight lows
a few degrees above normal in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.
However, some locations near the coast may only fall into the lower
80s thanks to the onshore flow off the warm Gulf of Mexico.

MARINE...Light pressure gradient to hold over the E Gulf waters
through the weekend and into next week for light winds and slight
seas continuing. Expect seas 2 ft or less and afternoon seabreezes
near the coast for fine boating conditions. But, thunderstorms to
increase in coverage near the coast that may produce strong gusty
winds that would briefly increase and chop up seas and contain
deadly lightning. So mariners need to always pay attention the
weather for their safety.

FIRE WEATHER...
A warm and humid typical summertime air mass will remain over the
region producing scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  79  91  77 /  30  20  50  30
FMY  92  76  93  75 /  50  30  60  30
GIF  95  76  93  75 /  40  30  60  30
SRQ  90  76  90  75 /  20  20  40  20
BKV  94  74  92  73 /  30  20  50  30
SPG  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251137 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
737 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
The winds will be from the southeast today around 10 knots over
the east coast taf sites of South Florida. Most of the storms
could be west of the east coast taf sites today, so will only
carry VCSH for the east coast taf sites.

KAPF taf site will see an easterly wind around 5 knots this
morning before swinging to a westerly direction at 5 to 10 knots
this afternoon, as the west coast sea breeze develops and pushes
inland. The weather will remain dry through this morning before
there is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Therefore, VCTS
will be introduce to KAPF taf site for the afternoon hours today.

The ceiling and vis will remain in the VFR conditions today for
all of the taf sites, but could fall down into MVFR or even IFR
conditions at KAPF taf site with any passage of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Today-Monday: Upper ridge in control of the Southeast plains
slowly retrograde westward this weekend. Meanwhile near the
surface, a weak pressure gradient keeps a light easterly flow
across South Fl. Conditions are favorable for another round of
afternoon convection with scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the interior progressing westward through the afternoon hours.
East coast areas will generally remain dry, but can`t rule out a
shower or two as outflows push back east. Given the relatively
warm atmosphere and drier mid levels, main storm concern will be
frequent lightning with some locally heavy rainfall given the slow
storm movement. Showers and storms diminish through the evening
hours, with a few Atlantic and east coast showers overnight.

High concentration of moisture wrap around the periphery of the
high pressure in addition to a weak upper level wave will enhance
additional convection through Monday with the potential of a few
storms becoming strong in the afternoon hours Sunday and Monday.
Light easterly flow will continue to keep the highest coverage
over the western interior and just inland from the Gulf coast
where the east coast breeze collides with the weaker Gulf coast
breeze. The main concern will continue to be the lightning
activity and locally heavy rainfall with gusty winds. Upper level
trough digs over eastern US, but overall pattern will remain weak.
Another round of convection continues into Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds begin to veer into mid week towards the Southeast.

Overall forecast remains similar to the weekend with scattered
showers and storms each afternoon. With more southerly flow,
highest rain chances will gradually shift towards the interior as
Gulf breeze gets a little more inland penetration. Temperatures
will be warmer aloft after upper level wave passes by, so don`t
expect any enhanced threat for stronger storms at this time for
the week.

AVIATION...VFR prevails at all terminals, and should continue
through the rest of the overnight hours. A few showers can be
observed on radar over the Atlantic offshore waters, but so far
convection remains very sparse and limited to the coastal waters.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are again expected in the vicinity
of the terminals Saturday afternoon, along with winds turning
onshore on APF with sea breeze circulations.

MARINE...Easterly flow will prevail through the early portion of
the forecast period with low seas as ridge remains in control of
the region. Convection will be possible through the period with a
few stronger storms Sunday and Monday. Seas will range between 1
to 2 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  78  89  76 /  30  10  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  90  78 /  30  10  30  30
Miami            91  79  90  78 /  30  10  30  30
Naples           90  76  91  75 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251137 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
737 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
The winds will be from the southeast today around 10 knots over
the east coast taf sites of South Florida. Most of the storms
could be west of the east coast taf sites today, so will only
carry VCSH for the east coast taf sites.

KAPF taf site will see an easterly wind around 5 knots this
morning before swinging to a westerly direction at 5 to 10 knots
this afternoon, as the west coast sea breeze develops and pushes
inland. The weather will remain dry through this morning before
there is a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Therefore, VCTS
will be introduce to KAPF taf site for the afternoon hours today.

The ceiling and vis will remain in the VFR conditions today for
all of the taf sites, but could fall down into MVFR or even IFR
conditions at KAPF taf site with any passage of a shower or
thunderstorm.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 427 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Today-Monday: Upper ridge in control of the Southeast plains
slowly retrograde westward this weekend. Meanwhile near the
surface, a weak pressure gradient keeps a light easterly flow
across South Fl. Conditions are favorable for another round of
afternoon convection with scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the interior progressing westward through the afternoon hours.
East coast areas will generally remain dry, but can`t rule out a
shower or two as outflows push back east. Given the relatively
warm atmosphere and drier mid levels, main storm concern will be
frequent lightning with some locally heavy rainfall given the slow
storm movement. Showers and storms diminish through the evening
hours, with a few Atlantic and east coast showers overnight.

High concentration of moisture wrap around the periphery of the
high pressure in addition to a weak upper level wave will enhance
additional convection through Monday with the potential of a few
storms becoming strong in the afternoon hours Sunday and Monday.
Light easterly flow will continue to keep the highest coverage
over the western interior and just inland from the Gulf coast
where the east coast breeze collides with the weaker Gulf coast
breeze. The main concern will continue to be the lightning
activity and locally heavy rainfall with gusty winds. Upper level
trough digs over eastern US, but overall pattern will remain weak.
Another round of convection continues into Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds begin to veer into mid week towards the Southeast.

Overall forecast remains similar to the weekend with scattered
showers and storms each afternoon. With more southerly flow,
highest rain chances will gradually shift towards the interior as
Gulf breeze gets a little more inland penetration. Temperatures
will be warmer aloft after upper level wave passes by, so don`t
expect any enhanced threat for stronger storms at this time for
the week.

AVIATION...VFR prevails at all terminals, and should continue
through the rest of the overnight hours. A few showers can be
observed on radar over the Atlantic offshore waters, but so far
convection remains very sparse and limited to the coastal waters.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are again expected in the vicinity
of the terminals Saturday afternoon, along with winds turning
onshore on APF with sea breeze circulations.

MARINE...Easterly flow will prevail through the early portion of
the forecast period with low seas as ridge remains in control of
the region. Convection will be possible through the period with a
few stronger storms Sunday and Monday. Seas will range between 1
to 2 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  78  89  76 /  30  10  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  90  78 /  30  10  30  30
Miami            91  79  90  78 /  30  10  30  30
Naples           90  76  91  75 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KTAE 251027
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
627 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

An upper level trough over the northeastern and mid-Atlantic states
is enhancing upper level divergence to our north and will aid in
convection development today along a front that is draped across
northern Georgia and South Carolina. Based on latest hi-res
guidance, increased our PoPs along our northern tier of counties. As
is usual this time of year, some of these storms may produce
downbursts of strong winds or some small hail. Over the Florida
Peninsula, another round of afternoon seabreeze thunderstorms are
expected, some of which may bleed over into our eastern Big Bend
counties. Over the rest of the forecast area, however, there will be
little to no storms or cloud coverage and temperatures will soar to
the mid to upper 90s with heat indices around 100-105.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Sunday]...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon
in parts of south Georgia and the Florida Peninsula. For our TAF
sites, the most likely to be affected site is ABY, although there is
a small chance (around 20%) near DHN and VLD as well. Outside of
thunderstorms, conditions are expected to remain VFR through the
period with light winds generally from the southwest that will calm
overnight. Some of the guidance suggests there may be some fog
tomorrow morning in north FL, but confidence was too low to include
in the TAF package at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [237 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Increased moisture will result in a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday than during the
previous several days, with PWAT values rising well above 1.5"
across our area. As usual during the summer, precipitation chances
will be maximized during peak heating hours of the afternoon and
early evening. With a fairly late start to convective initiation
expected on Sunday, however, high temperatures could still reach
the mid-upper 90s inland, along with heat indices topping out in
the 100-105 range. The heat will persist through Monday, although
it should be a couple degrees cooler with highs in the low-mid
90s. Lows during this period will generally be in the mid-70s
inland and in the upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue each
day through this period as a typical humid summertime airmass
settles over our area, and the diurnal sea breeze pattern enhances
convection over land each afternoon/early evening. Upper level
forcing may also play a role in aiding thunderstorm development
during the second half of this period, as a trough is projected to
dip into the southeastern CONUS from Thursday through Saturday.
While widespread severe storms are not expected throughout this
period, the best chance at seeing a couple strong/severe storms
would be during this time, when shear would be slightly enhanced
over our area. Highs in the lower 90s will prevail over our inland
locations with upper 80s near the coast each day. Lows will be in
the low-mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the coast.


.MARINE...

Light winds generally between 5-10 knots will lead to seas of 1-2
feet or less for the next several days.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity and rain chances will increase this weekend as we
return to a more normal summertime pattern. No red flag conditions
are expected for the next week.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   98  74  97  74  93 /  10  10  40  40  30
Panama City   88  77  88  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30
Dothan        97  74  96  74  94 /  10  10  40  30  30
Albany        98  75  97  74  95 /  20  20  50  30  30
Valdosta      98  74  95  73  92 /  20  10  60  40  30
Cross City    95  74  94  73  91 /  10  10  50  30  50
Apalachicola  90  76  89  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KMFL 250827
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
427 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Today-Monday: Upper ridge in control of the Southeast plains
slowly retrogrates westward this weekend. Meanwhile near the
surface, a weak pressure gradient keeps a light easterly flow
across South Fl. Conditions are favorable for another round of
afternoon convection with scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the interior progressing westward through the afternoon hours.
East coast areas will generally remain dry, but can`t rule out a
shower or two as outflows push back east. Given the relatively
warm atmosphere and drier mid levels, main storm concern will be
frequent lightning with some locally heavyrainfall given the slow
storm movement. Showers and storms diminish through the evening
hours, with a few Atlantic and east coast showers overnight.

High concentration of moisture wrap around the periphery of the
high pressure in addition to a weak upper level wave will ehnace
additional convection through Monday with the potential of a few
storms becoming strong in the afternoon hours Sunday and Monday.
Light easterly flow will continue to keep the highest coverage
over the western interior and just inland from the Gulf coast
where the east coast breeze collides with the weaker Gulf coast
breeze. The main concern will continue to be the lightning
activity and locally heavy rainfall with gusty winds. Upper level
trough digs over eastern US, but overall pattern will remain weak.
Another round of convection continues into Tuesday and Wednesday.
Winds begin to veer into mid week towards the Southeast.

Overall forecast remains similar to the weekend with scattered
showers and storms each afternoon. With more southerly flow,
highest rain chances will gradually shift towards the interior as
Gulf breeze gets a little more inland penetration. Temperatures
will be warmer aloft after upper level wave passes by, so don`t
expect any enhanced threat for stronger storms at this time for
the week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR prevails at all terminals, and should continue
through the rest of the overnight hours. A few showers can be
observed on radar over the Atlantic offshore waters, but so far
convection remains very sparse and limited to the coastal waters.
Showers and a few thunderstorms are again expected in the vicinity
of the terminals Saturday afternoon, along with winds turning
onshore on APF with sea breeze circulations.



&&

.MARINE...Easterly flow will prevail through the early portion of
the forecast period with low seas as ridge remains in control of
the region. Convection will be possible through the period with a
few stronger storms Sunday and Monday. Seas will range between 1
to 2 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  78  89  76 /  30  10  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  90  78 /  30  10  30  30
Miami            91  79  90  78 /  30  10  30  30
Naples           90  76  91  75 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...




000
FXUS62 KTBW 250737
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
337 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday...
Broad upper ridge over the Gulf Coast region this morning to
slowly retrograde westward to the Lower Mississippi River Valley
by 00Z Sunday as upper trough in the Western Atlantic becomes a
weak closed low off New England. Weak NW-N upper flow between
features over the state with weak vort maxes dropping into the
area. Weak Western Atlantic surface ridging back into the area
while a frontal boundary stays well N of the area. All features to
combine with increasing atmospheric moisture in weak steering
flow to generate scattered afternoon into evening sea breeze and
boundary interaction convection this afternoon then increasing in
coverage Sunday. Warm and humid summertime conditions expected
with temperatures within a few degrees of climatological normals.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Friday)...
In the mid and upper levels ridging will hold across the region
through Monday then for the rest of the week a trough will develop
over the eastern United States. Meanwhile at the surface, high
pressure will continue to ridge westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the southeast states through Monday then this becomes
suppressed southward for the remainder of the week as a cool front
associated with the trough sinks into the southeast states and
stalls to our north.

For the beginning of the period from Sunday night into Monday night
we will continue to see a rather light east to southeast flow with
the sea breezes developing by midday and moving inland. Scattered
convection Sunday evening will drift back toward the west coast and
wind down as the night progresses. On Monday abundant moisture is
expected across the region leading to scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms along the sea breeze/outflow boundaries beginning
around midday and continuing into the evening hours. Temperatures
will be near normal with overnight lows mostly in the 70s and
daytime highs in the upper 80s close to the coast to the lower 90s
inland.

For Tuesday through Friday a southwest to west flow will become
established across the region and with plenty of moisture in place
we will begin to see isolated to scattered convection over the
coastal waters late each night moving onshore through the morning
hours then becoming scattered to numerous over inland areas during
the afternoon and evening. The highest pops will be over the
interior and eastern portions of the Florida peninsula where the
best sea breeze collision is expected late each day into the evening
hours. Daytime high temperatures will remain close to normal in the
upper 80s near the coast to the lower 90s inland with overnight lows
a few degrees above normal in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.
However, some locations near the coast may only fall into the lower
80s thanks to the onshore flow off the warm Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through Saturday morning. Typical summertime SCT
TSRA along onshore seabreeze boundaries aft about 17Z Saturday
afternoon through evening then becoming VFR again.

&&

.MARINE...Light pressure gradient to hold over the E Gulf waters
through the weekend and into next week for light winds and slight
seas continuing. Expect seas 2 ft or less and afternoon seabreezes
near the coast for fine boating conditions. But, thunderstorms to
increase in coverage near the coast that may produce strong gusty
winds that would briefly increase and chop up seas and contain
deadly lightning. So mariners need to always pay attention the
weather for their safety.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warm and humid typical summertime air mass will remain over the
region producing scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  79  91  77 /  30  20  50  30
FMY  92  76  93  75 /  40  30  60  30
GIF  95  76  93  75 /  40  30  60  30
SRQ  90  76  90  75 /  20  20  40  20
BKV  94  74  92  73 /  30  20  50  30
SPG  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close




000
FXUS62 KTBW 250737
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
337 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday...
Broad upper ridge over the Gulf Coast region this morning to
slowly retrograde westward to the Lower Mississippi River Valley
by 00Z Sunday as upper trough in the Western Atlantic becomes a
weak closed low off New England. Weak NW-N upper flow between
features over the state with weak vort maxes dropping into the
area. Weak Western Atlantic surface ridging back into the area
while a frontal boundary stays well N of the area. All features to
combine with increasing atmospheric moisture in weak steering
flow to generate scattered afternoon into evening sea breeze and
boundary interaction convection this afternoon then increasing in
coverage Sunday. Warm and humid summertime conditions expected
with temperatures within a few degrees of climatological normals.

.MID TERM/LONG TERM (Sunday Night-Friday)...
In the mid and upper levels ridging will hold across the region
through Monday then for the rest of the week a trough will develop
over the eastern United States. Meanwhile at the surface, high
pressure will continue to ridge westward from the Atlantic Ocean
into the southeast states through Monday then this becomes
suppressed southward for the remainder of the week as a cool front
associated with the trough sinks into the southeast states and
stalls to our north.

For the beginning of the period from Sunday night into Monday night
we will continue to see a rather light east to southeast flow with
the sea breezes developing by midday and moving inland. Scattered
convection Sunday evening will drift back toward the west coast and
wind down as the night progresses. On Monday abundant moisture is
expected across the region leading to scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms along the sea breeze/outflow boundaries beginning
around midday and continuing into the evening hours. Temperatures
will be near normal with overnight lows mostly in the 70s and
daytime highs in the upper 80s close to the coast to the lower 90s
inland.

For Tuesday through Friday a southwest to west flow will become
established across the region and with plenty of moisture in place
we will begin to see isolated to scattered convection over the
coastal waters late each night moving onshore through the morning
hours then becoming scattered to numerous over inland areas during
the afternoon and evening. The highest pops will be over the
interior and eastern portions of the Florida peninsula where the
best sea breeze collision is expected late each day into the evening
hours. Daytime high temperatures will remain close to normal in the
upper 80s near the coast to the lower 90s inland with overnight lows
a few degrees above normal in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees.
However, some locations near the coast may only fall into the lower
80s thanks to the onshore flow off the warm Gulf of Mexico.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through Saturday morning. Typical summertime SCT
TSRA along onshore seabreeze boundaries aft about 17Z Saturday
afternoon through evening then becoming VFR again.

&&

.MARINE...Light pressure gradient to hold over the E Gulf waters
through the weekend and into next week for light winds and slight
seas continuing. Expect seas 2 ft or less and afternoon seabreezes
near the coast for fine boating conditions. But, thunderstorms to
increase in coverage near the coast that may produce strong gusty
winds that would briefly increase and chop up seas and contain
deadly lightning. So mariners need to always pay attention the
weather for their safety.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A warm and humid typical summertime air mass will remain over the
region producing scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  92  79  91  77 /  30  20  50  30
FMY  92  76  93  75 /  40  30  60  30
GIF  95  76  93  75 /  40  30  60  30
SRQ  90  76  90  75 /  20  20  40  20
BKV  94  74  92  73 /  30  20  50  30
SPG  92  79  91  77 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close




000
FXUS62 KMLB 250725
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
325 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...Axis of surface high pressure ridge extending from
the Atlantic across the central peninsula will change little.  This
tends to produce earlier moisture convergence/storms along the
south coast and later day boundary collisions/storms across the
north, similar to the convective evolution of yesterday.
Moistening has occurred so would think that the main change today
would be to see a slightly quicker convective evolution. This
should give the immediate Space/Treasure coast a little higher
chance for scattered showers/storms before convection propagates
well inland mid-late afternoon. MOS PoPs have trended upward to
scattered areawide which looks reasonable. Max temps should still
reach the mid 90s interior and around 90 along the coast. Heat
indices will again reach a little over 100, which is close to
average. Rain cooling or outflow boundary passage should limit the
duration of these max heat indices though. Slight chance PoPs
should linger into evening, especially the interior. Muggy min
temps in the mid 70s indicated tonight.

SUN...Frontal boundary shifting southward over GA will near north FL
before stalling, with ridge across the region weakening and
retreating east. Weak low level winds will exist across the region
which will allow sea breeze boundaries to form and move inland
through the afternoon. An approaching mid level S/W and area of
deeper moisture moving out ahead of the front will lead to higher
rain chances Sunday. Best chance for showers and storms will exist
over the interior late afternoon and early evening with the sea
breeze boundary collision near Lake County. Have PoPs ranging from
30 percent along the coast, up to 50-60 percent well inland.

More typical start to east coast sea breeze formation and expected
increase in convective coverage should keep highs limited to upper
80s/near 90 coast to low 90s inland.

MON-FRI...Frontal boundary north of the area weakens as ridge builds
back across southern half of Florida into early next week. Best
chance for showers and storms will continue over the interior where
sea breeze/outflow boundary collisions will be favored. Then into
mid-late week another front will move into the southeast U.S. and
shift ridge farther south. This will allow for a more predominant
W/SW flow that will increase overall moisture and concentrate
greatest convective coverage across east central Florida.

Highs will remain closer to normal through the work week with highs
in the upper 80s/around 90 along the coast to low 90s over the
interior. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR expected into late morning. East coast sea
breeze convection may form close enough to the coast to affect
KVRB-KSUA around midday to early afternoon, then the activity will
shift inland. Interior and north coast terminals should have
chances a little later in the afternoon. Scattered storms will
move little, tending to form and produce a quick burst of
lightning and downpours, then gradually rain themselves out.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...Surface high pressure ridge will extend across the
waters and provide a southeast/south wind flow about 10 knots or
less. Seas will continue 3 feet or less. Weak atmospheric wind
fields should cause afternoon thunderstorms to stay over the
mainland, but a few could form close enough to the Volusia coast
to affect boating.

SUN-WED...High pressure ridge retreats east late this weekend as
front nears north FL and stalls before building back into early this
week. Then another front moves into the southeast U.S. with ridge
axis shifting south. Favorable boating conditions are generally
expected to continue with wind speeds remaining below 15 knots and
seas 1-3 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  92  75  90  74 /  30  20  30  20
MCO  94  76  93  75 /  40  20  50  20
MLB  90  76  89  75 /  30  10  30  20
VRB  91  75  89  73 /  30  10  30  20
LEE  95  77  94  76 /  40  20  60  30
SFB  94  76  93  75 /  30  20  40  20
ORL  94  77  93  76 /  40  20  50  20
FPR  90  74  89  73 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lascody
LONG TERM....Weitlich




000
FXUS62 KJAX 250713
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
311 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Continued Hot with Heat Indices of 105 to 110 degrees today...

...Strong to Isolated Severe Storms possible across SE GA Late
Today...

.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...Mid level ridge across the area
today with southwest surface winds will result in hot temperatures
again. Highs will be in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees over
inland areas with Heat Indices in the 105-110 degree range. The
beaches will also be hot with highs reaching the low/mid 90s
before the seabreeze pushes inland. Will issue a Heat Advisory for
most of se Ga as H.I. values equal or exceed 108 there. Isolated
to scattered seabreeze storms will occur over ne Fl by late
afternoon/evening. Storms that develop over central Ga near a slow
moving cold front may reach se Ga during the late
afternoon/evening hours. These storms may produce strong gusty
winds as they reach the Altamaha river. Storms will gradually
decrease tonight but may linger till midnight.

Sunday...Weak trof/left over frontal boundary and increased moisture
will lead to scattered to numerous showers and storms during the
afternoon and evening hours. The increased moisture and coverage of
storms will tweak max temps downward slightly, but still warm enough
airmass to support mid/upper 90s over inland areas and heat indices
close to 105 degrees again. Slight shift in steering flow out of the
Northeast will allow for further push of the Atlc Coast sea breeze
inland later in the day which will interact with the weak/southward
morning trof/frontal boundary to help kick off shower/storm
activity. Strong activity with gusty winds possible along with the
usual frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall from slow moving
storms.

Monday...Some high pressure ridging at the surface and aloft pushing
south out of the SE U.S. and into South Georgia will dry the airmass
across SE GA out slightly where storms that develop during the
afternoon hours will be lower in coverage while still expect
scattered to numerous showers/storms across NE FL and near the FL/GA
border with the slightly stronger onshore flow and frontal boundary
in the region further pushing down temps with highs in the lower to
middle 90s, but more moisture will still push heat indices close to
105 degrees by the afternoon again.

.LONG TERM...

Tue-Sat...A series of weak fronts pushing into the SE U.S. and
stalling just NW of the region will keep a moist SW steering flow
across NE FL/SE GA and with PWATS closer to 2 inches, this will
support a more normal rainy season pattern with scattered to
numerous diurnal showers/storms in the afternoon/evening with Max
Temps falling back closer to normal in the lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail again today with light
sw winds...becoming southeast near the east coast this afternoon.
Isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms possible at TAF sites
but chances are too low to include in TAFs at this time.

&&

.MARINE...South to southwest winds will persist through tonight
and then become easterly Sunday as a weakening backdoor cold
front sags south into the waters. The front will dissipate with a
south to southwest flow resuming early next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk today and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  99  74  95  73 /  30  30  50  20
SSI  93  77  90  76 /  20  30  40  20
JAX  97  76  94  74 /  20  20  60  30
SGJ  90  75  91  75 /  20  20  40  30
GNV  94  73  95  73 /  30  20  60  30
OCF  94  74  94  73 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for Appling-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Coastal Camden-Coastal
     Glynn-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

AM...None.
&&

$$

Zibura/Hess




000
FXUS62 KTAE 250637
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
237 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

With stacked high pressure and below normal atmospheric moisture
still in place over the area, chances for showers and thunderstorms
will remain low today- peaking at around 20% in our northernmost and
easternmost zones. These slight chances are due to the potential for
convection outside our forecast area to our north, caused by upper
level divergence from a trough over the northeastern states, and to
our east, from seabreeze along the FL Peninsula. Since there will be
little to no storms or cloud coverage, temperatures will soar to the
mid to upper 90s and heat indices will be around 100-105.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Increased moisture will result in a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday than during the
previous several days, with PWAT values rising well above 1.5"
across our area. As usual during the summer, precipitation chances
will be maximized during peak heating hours of the afternoon and
early evening. With a fairly late start to convective initiation
expected on Sunday, however, high temperatures could still reach
the mid-upper 90s inland, along with heat indices topping out in
the 100-105 range. The heat will persist through Monday, although
it should be a couple degrees cooler with highs in the low-mid
90s. Lows during this period will generally be in the mid-70s
inland and in the upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue each
day through this period as a typical humid summertime airmass
settles over our area, and the diurnal sea breeze pattern enhances
convection over land each afternoon/early evening. Upper level
forcing may also play a role in aiding thunderstorm development
during the second half of this period, as a trough is projected to
dip into the southeastern CONUS from Thursday through Saturday.
While widespread severe storms are not expected throughout this
period, the best chance at seeing a couple strong/severe storms
would be during this time, when shear would be slightly enhanced
over our area. Highs in the lower 90s will prevail over our inland
locations with upper 80s near the coast each day. Lows will be in
the low-mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...

Hi-res guidance shows a slight chance for IFR visibilities in the
eastern Big Bend (near CTY), but all of our TAF sites are expected
to remain VFR through the period. Weak southwest winds will prevail
at most sites through 06Z, though sites in N FL (ECP, TLH) will see
an afternoon shift to more southerly winds with the seabreeze.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds generally between 5-10 knots will lead to seas of 1-2
feet or less for the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity and rain chances will increase this weekend as we
return to a more normal summertime pattern. No red flag conditions
are expected for the next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   98  74  97  74  94 /  10  10  40  40  30
Panama City   88  77  88  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30
Dothan        97  74  96  74  94 /  10  10  40  30  30
Albany        98  75  97  74  94 /  20  20  50  30  30
Valdosta      98  74  95  73  93 /  10  10  60  40  30
Cross City    95  74  94  73  92 /  10  10  50  30  50
Apalachicola  90  76  89  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTAE 250637
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
237 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

With stacked high pressure and below normal atmospheric moisture
still in place over the area, chances for showers and thunderstorms
will remain low today- peaking at around 20% in our northernmost and
easternmost zones. These slight chances are due to the potential for
convection outside our forecast area to our north, caused by upper
level divergence from a trough over the northeastern states, and to
our east, from seabreeze along the FL Peninsula. Since there will be
little to no storms or cloud coverage, temperatures will soar to the
mid to upper 90s and heat indices will be around 100-105.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Increased moisture will result in a better chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms Sunday and Monday than during the
previous several days, with PWAT values rising well above 1.5"
across our area. As usual during the summer, precipitation chances
will be maximized during peak heating hours of the afternoon and
early evening. With a fairly late start to convective initiation
expected on Sunday, however, high temperatures could still reach
the mid-upper 90s inland, along with heat indices topping out in
the 100-105 range. The heat will persist through Monday, although
it should be a couple degrees cooler with highs in the low-mid
90s. Lows during this period will generally be in the mid-70s
inland and in the upper 70s along the Gulf Coast.


.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue each
day through this period as a typical humid summertime airmass
settles over our area, and the diurnal sea breeze pattern enhances
convection over land each afternoon/early evening. Upper level
forcing may also play a role in aiding thunderstorm development
during the second half of this period, as a trough is projected to
dip into the southeastern CONUS from Thursday through Saturday.
While widespread severe storms are not expected throughout this
period, the best chance at seeing a couple strong/severe storms
would be during this time, when shear would be slightly enhanced
over our area. Highs in the lower 90s will prevail over our inland
locations with upper 80s near the coast each day. Lows will be in
the low-mid 70s inland, with upper 70s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...

Hi-res guidance shows a slight chance for IFR visibilities in the
eastern Big Bend (near CTY), but all of our TAF sites are expected
to remain VFR through the period. Weak southwest winds will prevail
at most sites through 06Z, though sites in N FL (ECP, TLH) will see
an afternoon shift to more southerly winds with the seabreeze.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds generally between 5-10 knots will lead to seas of 1-2
feet or less for the next several days.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity and rain chances will increase this weekend as we
return to a more normal summertime pattern. No red flag conditions
are expected for the next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   98  74  97  74  94 /  10  10  40  40  30
Panama City   88  77  88  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30
Dothan        97  74  96  74  94 /  10  10  40  30  30
Albany        98  75  97  74  94 /  20  20  50  30  30
Valdosta      98  74  95  73  93 /  10  10  60  40  30
Cross City    95  74  94  73  92 /  10  10  50  30  50
Apalachicola  90  76  89  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KKEY 250601
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
201 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX detects scattered showers over the coastal waters of the Florida
Straits. Elsewhere, KBYX detects isolated showers throughout the
remainder of the forecast area. Skies over the island chain are
mostly clear. Winds over land are east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
C-MAN winds, on average, are east to southeast near 15 knots.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
A trough of low pressure near the western tip of Cuba will progress
westward today. An Atlantic ridge of high pressure across north
central Florida will retreat eastward tonight. A trough of low
pressure will be located just off the southeast coast of the United
States Sunday through Monday. Rain chances in the short term portion
of the forecast should be highest this morning until the
aforementioned trough of low pressure progresses farther away from
the Florida Keys.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Friday)...
A trough of low pressure will remain just off the southeast coast of
the United States Monday night, before dissipating Tuesday. An
Atlantic ridge of high pressure will build across south central
Florida Tuesday night through Friday. The long term portion of the
forecast will be based on climatology, with a 20 to 30 percent chance
of rain, and high temperatures near 90 degrees, with low temperatures
near 80 degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail on all Keys coastal
waters today. No advisories or cautionary headlines expected today.
Sustained east to southeast surface winds of 15 to 20 knots are
possible on the coastal waters of the Florida Straits tonight. No
advisories or cautionary headlines expected Sunday through at least
Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few clusters of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will
be advancing through the Florida Straits this morning. A short-
duration tempo for MVFR and wind gusts in excess of 20 knots is in
place for Key West, with additional activity possible closer to
sunrise. East to southeast winds 8 to 13 knots, with occasional
higher gusts, expected outside of any showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1992, 5.14 inches of
rain fell at Key West International Airport. This set the daily
record for maximum rainfall measured in Key West on June 25th, a
record which still stands 24 years later. In addition, this is the
wettest day ever observed in Key West during the month of June.
Rainfall records at Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90 82 89 81 / 40 20 20 30
Marathon  92 81 91 80 / 40 20 20 30

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....Rizzo

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at...
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest




000
FXUS62 KKEY 250601
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
201 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX detects scattered showers over the coastal waters of the Florida
Straits. Elsewhere, KBYX detects isolated showers throughout the
remainder of the forecast area. Skies over the island chain are
mostly clear. Winds over land are east to southeast at 10 to 15 mph.
C-MAN winds, on average, are east to southeast near 15 knots.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
A trough of low pressure near the western tip of Cuba will progress
westward today. An Atlantic ridge of high pressure across north
central Florida will retreat eastward tonight. A trough of low
pressure will be located just off the southeast coast of the United
States Sunday through Monday. Rain chances in the short term portion
of the forecast should be highest this morning until the
aforementioned trough of low pressure progresses farther away from
the Florida Keys.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Friday)...
A trough of low pressure will remain just off the southeast coast of
the United States Monday night, before dissipating Tuesday. An
Atlantic ridge of high pressure will build across south central
Florida Tuesday night through Friday. The long term portion of the
forecast will be based on climatology, with a 20 to 30 percent chance
of rain, and high temperatures near 90 degrees, with low temperatures
near 80 degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail on all Keys coastal
waters today. No advisories or cautionary headlines expected today.
Sustained east to southeast surface winds of 15 to 20 knots are
possible on the coastal waters of the Florida Straits tonight. No
advisories or cautionary headlines expected Sunday through at least
Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few clusters of showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will
be advancing through the Florida Straits this morning. A short-
duration tempo for MVFR and wind gusts in excess of 20 knots is in
place for Key West, with additional activity possible closer to
sunrise. East to southeast winds 8 to 13 knots, with occasional
higher gusts, expected outside of any showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1992, 5.14 inches of
rain fell at Key West International Airport. This set the daily
record for maximum rainfall measured in Key West on June 25th, a
record which still stands 24 years later. In addition, this is the
wettest day ever observed in Key West during the month of June.
Rainfall records at Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  90 82 89 81 / 40 20 20 30
Marathon  92 81 91 80 / 40 20 20 30

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....Rizzo

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at...
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest




000
FXUS62 KTAE 250544
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
144 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...

Hi-res guidance shows a slight chance for IFR visibilities in the
eastern Big Bend (near CTY), but all of our TAF sites are expected
to remain VFR through the period. Weak southwest winds will prevail
at most sites through 06Z, though sites in N FL (ECP, TLH) will see
an afternoon shift to more southerly winds with the seabreeze.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [729 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 2 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a a broad area of
high pressure across much of the Gulf of Mexico, and a weak trough
from southeast AL through central GA. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a high height max over LA, with ample warm, dry air
aloft along the Gulf Coast. We expect fair weather to continue
overnight, as once again our local radar network remains
remarkably quiet for this time of year. Lows will be in the lower
to mid 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will cover the Southeast on Saturday, with
heights and lower-tropospheric temperatures running about 2
standard deviations above normal. This will result in afternoon
highs nearing the century mark away from the coast, with apparent
temperatures around 105. Slightly below average PWAT`s will just
be exiting the region to the southwest, so the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms remains quite low. On Sunday, however,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as a
shortwave currently moving through the Northern Plains moves
around the ridge and drops south into the region. Though showers
and thunderstorms are expected, they`ll likely start a bit later
in the afternoon, and with the anomalous ridge still in place
another afternoon of upper 90s should be expected.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Ridging will continue through the start of the week, though won`t
be quite anomalous as in the short term period. Through Tuesday,
PoPs will be governed by the varying afternoon seabreeze regimes,
with near normal coverage. Wednesday through Friday, a trough will
drop into the Southeast, introducing a frontal boundary that will
linger through the remainder of the period. Expect PoPs to be
higher than usual and forced along a combination of the seabreeze
and synoptic fronts. Monday will still features slightly above
normal highs, with afternoon highs settling back into the lower to
middle 90s for the remainder of the week.


.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected for the next
several days. The only exception will be near the coast each
afternoon in the seabreeze zone. Here, expect winds to peak around
10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   98  74  97  74  94 /  10  10  40  40  30
Panama City   88  77  88  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30
Dothan        97  74  96  74  94 /  10  10  40  30  30
Albany        98  75  97  74  94 /  20  20  50  30  30
Valdosta      98  74  95  73  93 /  10  10  60  40  30
Cross City    95  74  94  73  92 /  10  10  50  30  50
Apalachicola  90  76  89  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTAE 250544
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
144 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION [Through 06Z Sunday]...

Hi-res guidance shows a slight chance for IFR visibilities in the
eastern Big Bend (near CTY), but all of our TAF sites are expected
to remain VFR through the period. Weak southwest winds will prevail
at most sites through 06Z, though sites in N FL (ECP, TLH) will see
an afternoon shift to more southerly winds with the seabreeze.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [729 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 2 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a a broad area of
high pressure across much of the Gulf of Mexico, and a weak trough
from southeast AL through central GA. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a high height max over LA, with ample warm, dry air
aloft along the Gulf Coast. We expect fair weather to continue
overnight, as once again our local radar network remains
remarkably quiet for this time of year. Lows will be in the lower
to mid 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will cover the Southeast on Saturday, with
heights and lower-tropospheric temperatures running about 2
standard deviations above normal. This will result in afternoon
highs nearing the century mark away from the coast, with apparent
temperatures around 105. Slightly below average PWAT`s will just
be exiting the region to the southwest, so the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms remains quite low. On Sunday, however,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as a
shortwave currently moving through the Northern Plains moves
around the ridge and drops south into the region. Though showers
and thunderstorms are expected, they`ll likely start a bit later
in the afternoon, and with the anomalous ridge still in place
another afternoon of upper 90s should be expected.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Ridging will continue through the start of the week, though won`t
be quite anomalous as in the short term period. Through Tuesday,
PoPs will be governed by the varying afternoon seabreeze regimes,
with near normal coverage. Wednesday through Friday, a trough will
drop into the Southeast, introducing a frontal boundary that will
linger through the remainder of the period. Expect PoPs to be
higher than usual and forced along a combination of the seabreeze
and synoptic fronts. Monday will still features slightly above
normal highs, with afternoon highs settling back into the lower to
middle 90s for the remainder of the week.


.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected for the next
several days. The only exception will be near the coast each
afternoon in the seabreeze zone. Here, expect winds to peak around
10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   98  74  97  74  94 /  10  10  40  40  30
Panama City   88  77  88  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30
Dothan        97  74  96  74  94 /  10  10  40  30  30
Albany        98  75  97  74  94 /  20  20  50  30  30
Valdosta      98  74  95  73  93 /  10  10  60  40  30
Cross City    95  74  94  73  92 /  10  10  50  30  50
Apalachicola  90  76  89  77  88 /  10   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTBW 250541
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
141 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions overnight through Saturday morning. Typical
summertime SCT TSRA along onshore seabreeze boundaries aft about
17Z Saturday afternoon through evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 834 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
00Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis show a broad area of upper
level ridging in place over the Florida peninsula this evening.
Was a warm to hot summer day for most with our normal
distribution of diurnal sea-breeze driven showers and storms.
Clusters of storms are still ongoing...and with the sun just now
setting...we can anticipate renewed development through 10-11PM.
The best potential for a downpour the next several hours will be
across Manatee/Hillsborough/Polk Counties as a healthy cluster of
storms pushes slowly westward...and creates new outflow boundaries
for future storms to find a root on. Watching closely as to
whether this activity will make it as far west as the waters of
Tampa Bay and Pinellas County.

At the surface...the subtropical ridge axis stretches east to west
across the central FL peninsula into the eastern and central Gulf
of Mexico. The current pattern is about as "summer" as it gets for
Florida and will hold through the first half of the weekend.

Once the diurnal thunderstorms have finally rained themselves out
by around midnight...the remainder of the overnight should be
dry...warm...and humid.

The weather for Saturday looks very similar. We will start the
day out rather tranquil...with a slowly building cumulus field and
temps rising toward 90 by early afternoon. Once the sea-breeze
kicks in we will see a scattering of storms develop after 17-18Z.
The storms are likely to consolidate along or just east of the
I-75 corridor during the later afternoon hours. However...similar
to today...this activity may tend to migrate back westward during
the evening along cold pool generated outflow.

MARINE... A ridge of pressure from the western Atlantic to the
Gulf will meander north and south over FL through the weekend. The
gradient stays relaxed... allowing an onshore sea breeze component
to form along the coast each afternoon. Wind and seas rather
benign with the main concern locally higher winds and seas near
scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  90  78  92  77 /  20  10  50  30
FMY  91  76  93  75 /  30  30  60  20
GIF  93  76  93  75 /  30  10  60  20
SRQ  87  77  90  76 /  10  20  40  20
BKV  91  73  93  73 /  30  10  50  30
SPG  90  79  92  78 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...25/Davis




000
FXUS62 KTBW 250541
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
141 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions overnight through Saturday morning. Typical
summertime SCT TSRA along onshore seabreeze boundaries aft about
17Z Saturday afternoon through evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 834 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
00Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis show a broad area of upper
level ridging in place over the Florida peninsula this evening.
Was a warm to hot summer day for most with our normal
distribution of diurnal sea-breeze driven showers and storms.
Clusters of storms are still ongoing...and with the sun just now
setting...we can anticipate renewed development through 10-11PM.
The best potential for a downpour the next several hours will be
across Manatee/Hillsborough/Polk Counties as a healthy cluster of
storms pushes slowly westward...and creates new outflow boundaries
for future storms to find a root on. Watching closely as to
whether this activity will make it as far west as the waters of
Tampa Bay and Pinellas County.

At the surface...the subtropical ridge axis stretches east to west
across the central FL peninsula into the eastern and central Gulf
of Mexico. The current pattern is about as "summer" as it gets for
Florida and will hold through the first half of the weekend.

Once the diurnal thunderstorms have finally rained themselves out
by around midnight...the remainder of the overnight should be
dry...warm...and humid.

The weather for Saturday looks very similar. We will start the
day out rather tranquil...with a slowly building cumulus field and
temps rising toward 90 by early afternoon. Once the sea-breeze
kicks in we will see a scattering of storms develop after 17-18Z.
The storms are likely to consolidate along or just east of the
I-75 corridor during the later afternoon hours. However...similar
to today...this activity may tend to migrate back westward during
the evening along cold pool generated outflow.

MARINE... A ridge of pressure from the western Atlantic to the
Gulf will meander north and south over FL through the weekend. The
gradient stays relaxed... allowing an onshore sea breeze component
to form along the coast each afternoon. Wind and seas rather
benign with the main concern locally higher winds and seas near
scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  90  78  92  77 /  20  10  50  30
FMY  91  76  93  75 /  30  30  60  20
GIF  93  76  93  75 /  30  10  60  20
SRQ  87  77  90  76 /  10  20  40  20
BKV  91  73  93  73 /  30  10  50  30
SPG  90  79  92  78 /  10  10  40  30

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...25/Davis




000
FXUS62 KMFL 250535
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
135 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR prevails at all terminals, and should continue through the
rest of the overnight hours. A few showers can be observed on
radar over the Atlantic offshore waters, but so far convection
remains very sparse and limited to the coastal waters. Showers
and a few thunderstorms are again expected in the vicinity of the
terminals Saturday afternoon, along with winds turning onshore on
APF with sea breeze circulations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 751 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...

With a lack of any significant forcing and relatively warm/stable
mid levels, convection is quickly diminishing this evening as
daytime heating fades. Will keep a mention of isolated showers
through late evening as remaining boundary collisions play out
with the occasional brief shower.

Mesoscale models aren`t too excited about Atlantic showers
overnight, but east-southeast flow looks a little stronger and low
level moisture is a little higher so will keep a mention of
isolated showers for the waters as well as some of the east coast
overnight. /ALM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today-Tonight: Low level ridge axis is draped across Lake
Okeechobee this afternoon, well marked by the direction of shower
and storm movement across the Florida peninsula. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are ongoing over the interior, with
light easterly flow generally taking activity off to the west-
southwest.

Boundaries are abundant across the region this afternoon, and
expect activity to continue as the storm-lake-seabreeze boundary
interactions play out. Highest coverage will tend towards Hendry
and Collier counties through the remainder of the afternoon and
early evening hours. East coast areas will generally remain dry,
but can`t rule out a shower or two as outflows push back east.
Given the relatively warm atmosphere and drier mid levels, main
storm concern will be frequent lightning with some locally heavy
rainfall given the slow storm movement.

Showers and storms diminish through the evening hours, with a few
Atlantic and east coast showers overnight.

This Weekend-Monday: Upper level ridge stretching across Gulf will
continue to dominate the weather into Saturday, with mid level temps
remaining relatively warm (-6C to -7C) and dry. Light easterly flow
will prevail, with the low level ridge axis just north of the lake,
leading to a pattern fairly similar to Friday. A few showers and
storms will be possible along the eastern metro areas mid to late
morning as the seabreeze gets going, with the focus shifting into
the interior and Gulf coast during the afternoon and early evening.

Models show a weak upper level wave moving in from the northeast
late Sunday into Monday cooling mid level temps to -7C to -9C and
bringing in a little deeper moisture. This would help for a
little earlier start to convection, especially on Monday, as well
a better chance for stronger storms both afternoons.

Light easterly flow will continue to keep the highest coverage over
the western interior and just inland from the Gulf coast where the
east coast breeze collides with the weaker Gulf coast breeze.
Frequent lightning will remain the main concern with activity, along
with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Next Week: Upper level trough digs over eastern US, but overall
pattern remains weak and ill-defined over Florida through mid week
with a gradual trend towards upper level ridging building just to
our east.

Trough looks to push surface boundary through the southeast into the
latter half of the week, which will veer low level flow more south-
southeast. Models differ on how far south this boundary gets, but
will lean towards more ridging/less trough over the state which is
in line with climatology for this time of year.

Overall forecast remains similar to the weekend with scattered
showers and storms each afternoon. With more southerly flow,
highest rain chances will gradually shift towards the interior as
Gulf breeze gets a little more inland penetration. Temperatures
will be warmer aloft after upper level wave passes by, so don`t
expect any enhanced threat for stronger storms at this time for
the week.

MARINE...Light east to southeast flow prevails through the weekend
into next week across South Florida as we generally remain on the
south side of the Western Atlantic ridge. Convection will be
possible through the period with a few stronger storms Sunday and
Monday. Seas 1-2 feet in both the Gulf and Atlantic.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  78  89  76 /  30  10  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  89  78 /  20  10  20  10
Miami            91  80  90  77 /  20  10  20  10
Naples           91  76  91  75 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...17/AR
rest...88/ALM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 250535
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
135 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR prevails at all terminals, and should continue through the
rest of the overnight hours. A few showers can be observed on
radar over the Atlantic offshore waters, but so far convection
remains very sparse and limited to the coastal waters. Showers
and a few thunderstorms are again expected in the vicinity of the
terminals Saturday afternoon, along with winds turning onshore on
APF with sea breeze circulations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 751 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...

With a lack of any significant forcing and relatively warm/stable
mid levels, convection is quickly diminishing this evening as
daytime heating fades. Will keep a mention of isolated showers
through late evening as remaining boundary collisions play out
with the occasional brief shower.

Mesoscale models aren`t too excited about Atlantic showers
overnight, but east-southeast flow looks a little stronger and low
level moisture is a little higher so will keep a mention of
isolated showers for the waters as well as some of the east coast
overnight. /ALM

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today-Tonight: Low level ridge axis is draped across Lake
Okeechobee this afternoon, well marked by the direction of shower
and storm movement across the Florida peninsula. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are ongoing over the interior, with
light easterly flow generally taking activity off to the west-
southwest.

Boundaries are abundant across the region this afternoon, and
expect activity to continue as the storm-lake-seabreeze boundary
interactions play out. Highest coverage will tend towards Hendry
and Collier counties through the remainder of the afternoon and
early evening hours. East coast areas will generally remain dry,
but can`t rule out a shower or two as outflows push back east.
Given the relatively warm atmosphere and drier mid levels, main
storm concern will be frequent lightning with some locally heavy
rainfall given the slow storm movement.

Showers and storms diminish through the evening hours, with a few
Atlantic and east coast showers overnight.

This Weekend-Monday: Upper level ridge stretching across Gulf will
continue to dominate the weather into Saturday, with mid level temps
remaining relatively warm (-6C to -7C) and dry. Light easterly flow
will prevail, with the low level ridge axis just north of the lake,
leading to a pattern fairly similar to Friday. A few showers and
storms will be possible along the eastern metro areas mid to late
morning as the seabreeze gets going, with the focus shifting into
the interior and Gulf coast during the afternoon and early evening.

Models show a weak upper level wave moving in from the northeast
late Sunday into Monday cooling mid level temps to -7C to -9C and
bringing in a little deeper moisture. This would help for a
little earlier start to convection, especially on Monday, as well
a better chance for stronger storms both afternoons.

Light easterly flow will continue to keep the highest coverage over
the western interior and just inland from the Gulf coast where the
east coast breeze collides with the weaker Gulf coast breeze.
Frequent lightning will remain the main concern with activity, along
with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Next Week: Upper level trough digs over eastern US, but overall
pattern remains weak and ill-defined over Florida through mid week
with a gradual trend towards upper level ridging building just to
our east.

Trough looks to push surface boundary through the southeast into the
latter half of the week, which will veer low level flow more south-
southeast. Models differ on how far south this boundary gets, but
will lean towards more ridging/less trough over the state which is
in line with climatology for this time of year.

Overall forecast remains similar to the weekend with scattered
showers and storms each afternoon. With more southerly flow,
highest rain chances will gradually shift towards the interior as
Gulf breeze gets a little more inland penetration. Temperatures
will be warmer aloft after upper level wave passes by, so don`t
expect any enhanced threat for stronger storms at this time for
the week.

MARINE...Light east to southeast flow prevails through the weekend
into next week across South Florida as we generally remain on the
south side of the Western Atlantic ridge. Convection will be
possible through the period with a few stronger storms Sunday and
Monday. Seas 1-2 feet in both the Gulf and Atlantic.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  78  89  76 /  30  10  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  89  78 /  20  10  20  10
Miami            91  80  90  77 /  20  10  20  10
Naples           91  76  91  75 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...17/AR
rest...88/ALM




000
FXUS62 KKEY 250251
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1051 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - A ridge axis extending westward across the Florida
Peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico resulting in gentle to moderate
east to southeast breezes across the Florida Keys and surrounding
waters. Flow aloft remains unorganized. Earlier island cloud line
activity over and just north of the Lower Keys has ended, and only
isolated activity is located on our gulf side and distant straits.
This evening sounding indicated well above normal deep layered
moisture with no inhibition.

Short Term Update - Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes
will continue through the overnight period due to the ridge across
the Florida Peninsula. Ample deep layered moisture and CAPE, lack of
inhibition, along with a subtle lower level inverted trough riding
westward through the Keys justifies holding on to 50% POPS despite
the lack luster shower and thunderstorm coverage at this hour. Expect
activity to fill back in later in the overnight period. Temperatures
will generally fall to near 80, however rain cooled areas could see
the mid 70s. No changes anticipated for the local forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes will prevail on Florida
Keys waters overnight due to pressure ridge extending across the
Florida Peninsula. winds will tend highest over the Florida Straits.
Shower coverage is expected to increase through the overnight hours
due to a subtle low level feature moving westward through Keys
waters.

&&

.AVIATION...
Afternoon/evening convection has diminished in coverage, so decided
to drop VCSH from the TAF sites in the short term. With another
moist sounding observed, and POPS trending above climo for Saturday,
VCSH remains in the forecast for both TAF sites after 09z. Expect
light easterly winds to veer to the east-southeast and become breezy
by Saturday morning.

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MCLOVIN
DATA COLLECTION.......DR

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at...
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest




000
FXUS62 KMLB 250151
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
950 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Late day boundary collision along the I-4 Corridor sparked a line of
shras/tsras arnd sunset. Storms were nearly stationary due to weak
H85-H50 steering flow...resulting lcl rain amounts of 2.00"-3.00"
btwn Deland and the attractions area. The storms have peaked, but
will continue to drop light to moderate precip thru late evng as
they gradually dissipate.

Remainder of the evng looks quiet as the deep ridging pattern that
has dominated the recent lcl wx pattern remains firmly entrenched
over the FL Peninsula. Evng RAOB soundings show PWat values arnd
1.75" over central/south FL while lcl profilers show a S/SE breeze
in the H100-H85 lyr. This trajectory often allows shras to form in
the wake eddies downstream of the nrn Bahamas. RAP40 analysis shows
a weak band of H85-H50 vorticity and H100-H70 RH extending NE from
Lake-O...furthering the possibility of isold coastal shras
overnight. The weak H85-H50 steering flow suggests any shras that
might move onshore will be confined to the immediate coast. Aftn
fcst package already accounts for this.

Will do a late update o remove precip over the interior once ongoing
convection burns itself out...no plans to make any other sig changes.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 26/00Z.
Sfc winds: Thru 25/04Z...bcmg S/SW aob 3KTS. Btwn 25/13Z-25/16Z...
coastal sites bcmg E/SE 8-12KTS...interior sites S/SW 6-10KTS. Btwn
25/18Z-25/21Z...interior sites bcmg E/SE 7-11KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 25/03Z...along I-4 btwn KISM-KDAB sct MVFR
shras/IFR tsras. Btwn 25/06Z-25/16Z...S of KMLB slgt chc MVFR shras.
Btwn 25/12Z-25/16Z...E of KTIX-KOBE slgt chc MVFR shras. Aft
25/16Z...chc IFR tsras all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Bermuda ridge axis over central FL will maintain a light to gentle
E/SE breeze overnight. Seas aob 2FT nearshore and 2-3FT offshore...
mainly in a long pd easterly swell.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Short Term/Aviation...Bragaw
Radar/Impact WX/DSS...Volkmer




000
FXUS62 KJAX 250058
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
858 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...Isolated convection...generally 5-10 pct coverage
with sea breeze...to dissipate next 2 hours with loss of heating.
Otherwise clear to partly cloudy skies expected. Low temp forecast
looks good with low-mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions next 24 hrs with light winds. Isolated
TSRA possible with sea breezes Sat afternoon...but threat to low
to include in TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...No changes planned in next CWF issuance...with
continued exercise caution for offshore component tonight for
15-20 kt winds.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  97  74  96 /  10  30  30  60
SSI  78  96  79  90 /  10  20  20  40
JAX  74  96  73  94 /  10  20  10  40
SGJ  76  92  76  89 /  10  10  10  40
GNV  72  94  73  93 /  10  20  20  50
OCF  72  94  73  93 /  10  10  10  60

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Wolf/Shashy/Walker




000
FXUS62 KTBW 250034
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
834 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
00Z water vapor and H4 RAP analysis show a broad area of upper
level ridging in place over the Florida peninsula this evening.
Was a warm to hot summer day for most with our normal
distribution of diurnal sea-breeze driven showers and storms.
Clusters of storms are still ongoing...and with the sun just now
setting...we can anticipate renewed development through 10-11PM.
The best potential for a downpour the next several hours will be
across Manatee/Hillsborough/Polk Counties as a healthy cluster of
storms pushes slowly westward...and creates new outflow boundaries
for future storms to find a root on. Watching closely as to
whether this activity will make it as far west as the waters of
Tampa Bay and Pinellas County.

At the surface...the subtropical ridge axis stretches east to west
across the central FL peninsula into the eastern and central Gulf
of Mexico. The current pattern is about as "summer" as it gets for
Florida and will hold through the first half of the weekend.

Once the diurnal thunderstorms have finally rained themselves out
by around midnight...the remainder of the overnight should be
dry...warm...and humid.

The weather for Saturday looks very similar. We will start the
day out rather tranquil...with a slowly building cumulus field and
temps rising toward 90 by early afternoon. Once the sea-breeze
kicks in we will see a scattering of storms develop after 17-18Z.
The storms are likely to consolidate along or just east of the
I-75 corridor during the later afternoon hours. However...similar
to today...this activity may tend to migrate back westward during
the evening along cold pool generated outflow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern through 03Z thunderstorm potential around KSRQ/KLAL
and possibly even KTPA/KPIE. Tempos for thunder are in the
forecast for KLAL and KSRQ and will be keeping an eye for the
terminals along Tampa Bay. AFter 03Z...the activity should
diminish and give us a quiet night with light winds and general
VFR conditions. Saturday will begin quiet through midday...and
then see more typical sct storms for the afternoon with flow
turning onshore near the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
A ridge of pressure from the western Atlantic to the Gulf will
meander north and south over FL through the weekend. The gradient
stays relaxed... allowing an onshore sea breeze component to form
along the coast each afternoon. Wind and seas rather benign with
the main concern locally higher winds and seas near scattered
thunderstorms.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  90  78  92 /  30  20  10  50
FMY  76  91  76  93 /  30  30  30  60
GIF  76  93  76  93 /  20  30  10  60
SRQ  77  87  77  90 /  40  10  20  40
BKV  74  91  73  93 /  30  30  10  50
SPG  79  90  79  92 /  30  10  10  40

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/Mroczka




000
FXUS62 KMFL 242351
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
751 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

With a lack of any significant forcing and relatively warm/stable
mid levels, convection is quickly diminishing this evening as
daytime heating fades. Will keep a mention of isolated showers
through late evening as remaining boundary collisions play out
with the occasional brief shower.

Mesoscale models aren`t too excited about Atlantic showers
overnight, but east-southeast flow looks a little stronger and low
level moisture is a little higher so will keep a mention of
isolated showers for the waters as well as some of the east coast
overnight. /ALM

&&

.AVIATION...

With the evening convection already dissipated, mainly VFR
conditions expected through the evening hours and through the
early morning hours on Saturday. Light east to southeast regional winds
prevail, but winds at the terminals could become light and
variable early Saturday morning. By late morning Saturday sea
breeze development will once again drive development of afternoon
showers/thunderstorms but not enough confidence to assign VCTS or
PROB30 at this time. 60/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today-Tonight: Low level ridge axis is draped across Lake
Okeechobee this afternoon, well marked by the direction of shower
and storm movement across the Florida peninsula. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are ongoing over the interior, with
light easterly flow generally taking activity off to the west-
southwest.

Boundaries are abundant across the region this afternoon, and
expect activity to continue as the storm-lake-seabreeze boundary
interactions play out. Highest coverage will tend towards Hendry
and Collier counties through the remainder of the afternoon and
early evening hours. East coast areas will generally remain dry,
but can`t rule out a shower or two as outflows push back east.
Given the relatively warm atmosphere and drier mid levels, main
storm concern will be frequent lightning with some locally heavy
rainfall given the slow storm movement.

Showers and storms diminish through the evening hours, with a few
Atlantic and east coast showers overnight.

This Weekend-Monday: Upper level ridge stretching across Gulf will
continue to dominate the weather into Saturday, with mid level temps
remaining relatively warm (-6C to -7C) and dry. Light easterly flow
will prevail, with the low level ridge axis just north of the lake,
leading to a pattern fairly similar to Friday. A few showers and
storms will be possible along the eastern metro areas mid to late
morning as the seabreeze gets going, with the focus shifting into
the interior and Gulf coast during the afternoon and early evening.

Models show a weak upper level wave moving in from the northeast
late Sunday into Monday cooling mid level temps to -7C to -9C and
bringing in a little deeper moisture. This would help for a
little earlier start to convection, especially on Monday, as well
a better chance for stronger storms both afternoons.

Light easterly flow will continue to keep the highest coverage over
the western interior and just inland from the Gulf coast where the
east coast breeze collides with the weaker Gulf coast breeze.
Frequent lightning will remain the main concern with activity, along
with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Next Week: Upper level trough digs over eastern US, but overall
pattern remains weak and ill-defined over Florida through mid week
with a gradual trend towards upper level ridging building just to
our east.

Trough looks to push surface boundary through the southeast into the
latter half of the week, which will veer low level flow more south-
southeast. Models differ on how far south this boundary gets, but
will lean towards more ridging/less trough over the state which is
in line with climatology for this time of year.

Overall forecast remains similar to the weekend with scattered
showers and storms each afternoon. With more southerly flow,
highest rain chances will gradually shift towards the interior as
Gulf breeze gets a little more inland penetration. Temperatures
will be warmer aloft after upper level wave passes by, so don`t
expect any enhanced threat for stronger storms at this time for
the week.

MARINE...Light east to southeast flow prevails through the weekend
into next week across South Florida as we generally remain on the
south side of the Western Atlantic ridge. Convection will be
possible through the period with a few stronger storms Sunday and
Monday. Seas 1-2 feet in both the Gulf and Atlantic.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  89 /  10  20  10  20
Miami            80  91  80  90 /  10  20  10  20
Naples           77  91  76  91 /  10  40  30  50

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88/ALM
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 242351
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
751 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

With a lack of any significant forcing and relatively warm/stable
mid levels, convection is quickly diminishing this evening as
daytime heating fades. Will keep a mention of isolated showers
through late evening as remaining boundary collisions play out
with the occasional brief shower.

Mesoscale models aren`t too excited about Atlantic showers
overnight, but east-southeast flow looks a little stronger and low
level moisture is a little higher so will keep a mention of
isolated showers for the waters as well as some of the east coast
overnight. /ALM

&&

.AVIATION...

With the evening convection already dissipated, mainly VFR
conditions expected through the evening hours and through the
early morning hours on Saturday. Light east to southeast regional winds
prevail, but winds at the terminals could become light and
variable early Saturday morning. By late morning Saturday sea
breeze development will once again drive development of afternoon
showers/thunderstorms but not enough confidence to assign VCTS or
PROB30 at this time. 60/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today-Tonight: Low level ridge axis is draped across Lake
Okeechobee this afternoon, well marked by the direction of shower
and storm movement across the Florida peninsula. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are ongoing over the interior, with
light easterly flow generally taking activity off to the west-
southwest.

Boundaries are abundant across the region this afternoon, and
expect activity to continue as the storm-lake-seabreeze boundary
interactions play out. Highest coverage will tend towards Hendry
and Collier counties through the remainder of the afternoon and
early evening hours. East coast areas will generally remain dry,
but can`t rule out a shower or two as outflows push back east.
Given the relatively warm atmosphere and drier mid levels, main
storm concern will be frequent lightning with some locally heavy
rainfall given the slow storm movement.

Showers and storms diminish through the evening hours, with a few
Atlantic and east coast showers overnight.

This Weekend-Monday: Upper level ridge stretching across Gulf will
continue to dominate the weather into Saturday, with mid level temps
remaining relatively warm (-6C to -7C) and dry. Light easterly flow
will prevail, with the low level ridge axis just north of the lake,
leading to a pattern fairly similar to Friday. A few showers and
storms will be possible along the eastern metro areas mid to late
morning as the seabreeze gets going, with the focus shifting into
the interior and Gulf coast during the afternoon and early evening.

Models show a weak upper level wave moving in from the northeast
late Sunday into Monday cooling mid level temps to -7C to -9C and
bringing in a little deeper moisture. This would help for a
little earlier start to convection, especially on Monday, as well
a better chance for stronger storms both afternoons.

Light easterly flow will continue to keep the highest coverage over
the western interior and just inland from the Gulf coast where the
east coast breeze collides with the weaker Gulf coast breeze.
Frequent lightning will remain the main concern with activity, along
with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Next Week: Upper level trough digs over eastern US, but overall
pattern remains weak and ill-defined over Florida through mid week
with a gradual trend towards upper level ridging building just to
our east.

Trough looks to push surface boundary through the southeast into the
latter half of the week, which will veer low level flow more south-
southeast. Models differ on how far south this boundary gets, but
will lean towards more ridging/less trough over the state which is
in line with climatology for this time of year.

Overall forecast remains similar to the weekend with scattered
showers and storms each afternoon. With more southerly flow,
highest rain chances will gradually shift towards the interior as
Gulf breeze gets a little more inland penetration. Temperatures
will be warmer aloft after upper level wave passes by, so don`t
expect any enhanced threat for stronger storms at this time for
the week.

MARINE...Light east to southeast flow prevails through the weekend
into next week across South Florida as we generally remain on the
south side of the Western Atlantic ridge. Convection will be
possible through the period with a few stronger storms Sunday and
Monday. Seas 1-2 feet in both the Gulf and Atlantic.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  89 /  10  20  10  20
Miami            80  91  80  90 /  10  20  10  20
Naples           77  91  76  91 /  10  40  30  50

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88/ALM
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 242351
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
751 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

With a lack of any significant forcing and relatively warm/stable
mid levels, convection is quickly diminishing this evening as
daytime heating fades. Will keep a mention of isolated showers
through late evening as remaining boundary collisions play out
with the occasional brief shower.

Mesoscale models aren`t too excited about Atlantic showers
overnight, but east-southeast flow looks a little stronger and low
level moisture is a little higher so will keep a mention of
isolated showers for the waters as well as some of the east coast
overnight. /ALM

&&

.AVIATION...

With the evening convection already dissipated, mainly VFR
conditions expected through the evening hours and through the
early morning hours on Saturday. Light east to southeast regional winds
prevail, but winds at the terminals could become light and
variable early Saturday morning. By late morning Saturday sea
breeze development will once again drive development of afternoon
showers/thunderstorms but not enough confidence to assign VCTS or
PROB30 at this time. 60/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today-Tonight: Low level ridge axis is draped across Lake
Okeechobee this afternoon, well marked by the direction of shower
and storm movement across the Florida peninsula. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are ongoing over the interior, with
light easterly flow generally taking activity off to the west-
southwest.

Boundaries are abundant across the region this afternoon, and
expect activity to continue as the storm-lake-seabreeze boundary
interactions play out. Highest coverage will tend towards Hendry
and Collier counties through the remainder of the afternoon and
early evening hours. East coast areas will generally remain dry,
but can`t rule out a shower or two as outflows push back east.
Given the relatively warm atmosphere and drier mid levels, main
storm concern will be frequent lightning with some locally heavy
rainfall given the slow storm movement.

Showers and storms diminish through the evening hours, with a few
Atlantic and east coast showers overnight.

This Weekend-Monday: Upper level ridge stretching across Gulf will
continue to dominate the weather into Saturday, with mid level temps
remaining relatively warm (-6C to -7C) and dry. Light easterly flow
will prevail, with the low level ridge axis just north of the lake,
leading to a pattern fairly similar to Friday. A few showers and
storms will be possible along the eastern metro areas mid to late
morning as the seabreeze gets going, with the focus shifting into
the interior and Gulf coast during the afternoon and early evening.

Models show a weak upper level wave moving in from the northeast
late Sunday into Monday cooling mid level temps to -7C to -9C and
bringing in a little deeper moisture. This would help for a
little earlier start to convection, especially on Monday, as well
a better chance for stronger storms both afternoons.

Light easterly flow will continue to keep the highest coverage over
the western interior and just inland from the Gulf coast where the
east coast breeze collides with the weaker Gulf coast breeze.
Frequent lightning will remain the main concern with activity, along
with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Next Week: Upper level trough digs over eastern US, but overall
pattern remains weak and ill-defined over Florida through mid week
with a gradual trend towards upper level ridging building just to
our east.

Trough looks to push surface boundary through the southeast into the
latter half of the week, which will veer low level flow more south-
southeast. Models differ on how far south this boundary gets, but
will lean towards more ridging/less trough over the state which is
in line with climatology for this time of year.

Overall forecast remains similar to the weekend with scattered
showers and storms each afternoon. With more southerly flow,
highest rain chances will gradually shift towards the interior as
Gulf breeze gets a little more inland penetration. Temperatures
will be warmer aloft after upper level wave passes by, so don`t
expect any enhanced threat for stronger storms at this time for
the week.

MARINE...Light east to southeast flow prevails through the weekend
into next week across South Florida as we generally remain on the
south side of the Western Atlantic ridge. Convection will be
possible through the period with a few stronger storms Sunday and
Monday. Seas 1-2 feet in both the Gulf and Atlantic.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  89 /  10  20  10  20
Miami            80  91  80  90 /  10  20  10  20
Naples           77  91  76  91 /  10  40  30  50

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88/ALM
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 242351
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
751 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

With a lack of any significant forcing and relatively warm/stable
mid levels, convection is quickly diminishing this evening as
daytime heating fades. Will keep a mention of isolated showers
through late evening as remaining boundary collisions play out
with the occasional brief shower.

Mesoscale models aren`t too excited about Atlantic showers
overnight, but east-southeast flow looks a little stronger and low
level moisture is a little higher so will keep a mention of
isolated showers for the waters as well as some of the east coast
overnight. /ALM

&&

.AVIATION...

With the evening convection already dissipated, mainly VFR
conditions expected through the evening hours and through the
early morning hours on Saturday. Light east to southeast regional winds
prevail, but winds at the terminals could become light and
variable early Saturday morning. By late morning Saturday sea
breeze development will once again drive development of afternoon
showers/thunderstorms but not enough confidence to assign VCTS or
PROB30 at this time. 60/BD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 424 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today-Tonight: Low level ridge axis is draped across Lake
Okeechobee this afternoon, well marked by the direction of shower
and storm movement across the Florida peninsula. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are ongoing over the interior, with
light easterly flow generally taking activity off to the west-
southwest.

Boundaries are abundant across the region this afternoon, and
expect activity to continue as the storm-lake-seabreeze boundary
interactions play out. Highest coverage will tend towards Hendry
and Collier counties through the remainder of the afternoon and
early evening hours. East coast areas will generally remain dry,
but can`t rule out a shower or two as outflows push back east.
Given the relatively warm atmosphere and drier mid levels, main
storm concern will be frequent lightning with some locally heavy
rainfall given the slow storm movement.

Showers and storms diminish through the evening hours, with a few
Atlantic and east coast showers overnight.

This Weekend-Monday: Upper level ridge stretching across Gulf will
continue to dominate the weather into Saturday, with mid level temps
remaining relatively warm (-6C to -7C) and dry. Light easterly flow
will prevail, with the low level ridge axis just north of the lake,
leading to a pattern fairly similar to Friday. A few showers and
storms will be possible along the eastern metro areas mid to late
morning as the seabreeze gets going, with the focus shifting into
the interior and Gulf coast during the afternoon and early evening.

Models show a weak upper level wave moving in from the northeast
late Sunday into Monday cooling mid level temps to -7C to -9C and
bringing in a little deeper moisture. This would help for a
little earlier start to convection, especially on Monday, as well
a better chance for stronger storms both afternoons.

Light easterly flow will continue to keep the highest coverage over
the western interior and just inland from the Gulf coast where the
east coast breeze collides with the weaker Gulf coast breeze.
Frequent lightning will remain the main concern with activity, along
with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Next Week: Upper level trough digs over eastern US, but overall
pattern remains weak and ill-defined over Florida through mid week
with a gradual trend towards upper level ridging building just to
our east.

Trough looks to push surface boundary through the southeast into the
latter half of the week, which will veer low level flow more south-
southeast. Models differ on how far south this boundary gets, but
will lean towards more ridging/less trough over the state which is
in line with climatology for this time of year.

Overall forecast remains similar to the weekend with scattered
showers and storms each afternoon. With more southerly flow,
highest rain chances will gradually shift towards the interior as
Gulf breeze gets a little more inland penetration. Temperatures
will be warmer aloft after upper level wave passes by, so don`t
expect any enhanced threat for stronger storms at this time for
the week.

MARINE...Light east to southeast flow prevails through the weekend
into next week across South Florida as we generally remain on the
south side of the Western Atlantic ridge. Convection will be
possible through the period with a few stronger storms Sunday and
Monday. Seas 1-2 feet in both the Gulf and Atlantic.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  90  78  89 /  10  30  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  89 /  10  20  10  20
Miami            80  91  80  90 /  10  20  10  20
Naples           77  91  76  91 /  10  40  30  50

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88/ALM
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 242329
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
729 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The 2 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a a broad area of
high pressure across much of the Gulf of Mexico, and a weak trough
from southeast AL through central GA. Vapor imagery and upper air
data showed a high height max over LA, with ample warm, dry air
aloft along the Gulf Coast. We expect fair weather to continue
overnight, as once again our local radar network remains
remarkably quiet for this time of year. Lows will be in the lower
to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Sunday]...

The consensus of NWP guidance and MOS indicate very little potential
for fog and/or low cigs overnight. SW winds 5 to 10 KT this
evening will become 5 KT or less and gradually veer to the W or NW
by dawn. A S-SW sea breeze around 10 KT will develop at KECP and
KTLH by mid afternoon Saturday. Scattered TSRA will develop across
central GA and AL mid to late afternoon, and some of these storms
could reach KABY and KDHN late. However, confidence in this
scenario is low at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [315 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will cover the Southeast on Saturday, with
heights and lower-tropospheric temperatures running about 2
standard deviations above normal. This will result in afternoon
highs nearing the century mark away from the coast, with apparent
temperatures around 105. Slightly below average PWAT`s will just
be exiting the region to the southwest, so the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms remains quite low. On Sunday, however,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as a
shortwave currently moving through the Northern Plains moves
around the ridge and drops south into the region. Though showers
and thunderstorms are expected, they`ll likely start a bit later
in the afternoon, and with the anomalous ridge still in place
another afternoon of upper 90s should be expected.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Ridging will continue through the start of the week, though won`t
be quite anomalous as in the short term period. Through Tuesday,
PoPs will be governed by the varying afternoon seabreeze regimes,
with near normal coverage. Wednesday through Friday, a trough will
drop into the Southeast, introducing a frontal boundary that will
linger through the remainder of the period. Expect PoPs to be
higher than usual and forced along a combination of the seabreeze
and synoptic fronts. Monday will still features slightly above
normal highs, with afternoon highs settling back into the lower to
middle 90s for the remainder of the week.


.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected for the next
several days. The only exception will be near the coast each
afternoon in the seabreeze zone. Here, expect winds to peak around
10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop.


.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  98  73  97  74 /   0  10   0  40  40
Panama City   75  88  77  89  77 /   0   0   0  20  10
Dothan        72  98  74  97  74 /   0  10  10  40  30
Albany        73  99  75  98  74 /   0  10  20  50  40
Valdosta      72  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  60  40
Cross City    72  95  72  94  73 /   0  10  10  50  30
Apalachicola  75  90  76  90  77 /   0  10   0  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Fournier
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Fournier
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KMFL 242024
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
424 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of Today-Tonight: Low level ridge axis is draped across Lake
Okeechobee this afternoon, well marked by the direction of shower
and storm movement across the Florida peninsula. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms are ongoing over the interior, with
light easterly flow generally taking activity off to the west-
southwest.

Boundaries are abundant across the region this afternoon, and
expect activity to continue as the storm-lake-seabreeze boundary
interactions play out. Highest coverage will tend towards Hendry
and Collier counties through the remainder of the afternoon and
early evening hours. East coast areas will generally remain dry,
but can`t rule out a shower or two as outflows push back east.
Given the relatively warm atmosphere and drier mid levels, main
storm concern will be frequent lightning with some locally heavy
rainfall given the slow storm movement.

Showers and storms diminish through the evening hours, with a few
Atlantic and east coast showers overnight.

This Weekend-Monday: Upper level ridge stretching across Gulf will
continue to dominate the weather into Saturday, with mid level temps
remaining relatively warm (-6C to -7C) and dry. Light easterly flow
will prevail, with the low level ridge axis just north of the lake,
leading to a pattern fairly similar to Friday. A few showers and
storms will be possible along the eastern metro areas mid to late
morning as the seabreeze gets going, with the focus shifting into
the interior and Gulf coast during the afternoon and early evening.

Models show a weak upper level wave moving in from the northeast
late Sunday into Monday cooling mid level temps to -7C to -9C and
bringing in a little deeper moisture. This would help for a
little earlier start to convection, especially on Monday, as well
a better chance for stronger storms both afternoons.

Light easterly flow will continue to keep the highest coverage over
the western interior and just inland from the Gulf coast where the
east coast breeze collides with the weaker Gulf coast breeze.
Frequent lightning will remain the main concern with activity, along
with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

Next Week: Upper level trough digs over eastern US, but overall
pattern remains weak and ill-defined over Florida through mid week
with a gradual trend towards upper level ridging building just to
our east.

Trough looks to push surface boundary through the southeast into the
latter half of the week, which will veer low level flow more south-
southeast. Models differ on how far south this boundary gets, but
will lean towards more ridging/less trough over the state which is
in line with climatology for this time of year.

Overall forecast remains similar to the weekend with scattered
showers and storms each afternoon. With more southerly flow,
highest rain chances will gradually shift towards the interior as
Gulf breeze gets a little more inland penetration. Temperatures
will be warmer aloft after upper level wave passes by, so don`t
expect any enhanced threat for stronger storms at this time for
the week.

&&

.MARINE...Light east to southeast flow prevails through the weekend
into next week across South Florida as we generally remain on the
south side of the Western Atlantic ridge. Convection will be
possible through the period with a few stronger storms Sunday and
Monday. Seas 1-2 feet in both the Gulf and Atlantic.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  90  78  89 /  20  30  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  89 /  20  20  10  20
Miami            80  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
Naples           77  91  76  91 /  30  40  30  50

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

ALM




000
FXUS62 KMLB 241929
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
329 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Isold/Sct diurnal pcpn, and perhaps a storms or two
related to late boundary collisions will linger through dusk with
activity in the form of showers confined to the marine area and
near shore waters of the Treasure coast overnight.

SAT-SUN...(from prev disc) Slow erosion of subtropical ridge,
which has been present the entire work week across the area will
bring eventual increase in rain chances during the weekend.
A frontal boundary well north of the area wl sags south toward the FL
border, keeping a rather weak S/SW flow over the area. Sea/lake
breeze boundaries wl develop and move inland each afternoon.

Moisture profiles and steering winds aloft favor best chance for
storms over the interior during the afternoon and evening hours.
Convective coverage forecast to be greater on Sunday as deeper
moisture and disturbance aloft builds down into the area ahead of
weakening front to the north.

Highs Saturday will reach the low to mid 90s with heat index values
ranging from 100-105. Then with more showers and storms expected
Sunday, highs will range from the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight
lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

MON-THU...Models in fairly good agreement into the work week with
ridge axis generally meandering across the southern half of the
Florida peninsula. GFS indicates some initial drying working in
behind passing disturbance aloft early next week, but then
sufficient moisture quickly rebuilds in the low level S/SW flow to
maintain forecast of scattered afternoon showers and storms each day
with greatest coverage expected over the interior from late day sea
breeze/outflow boundary interactions.

Highs continue in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT shra/TS chances mnly along I-4 and
across interior sections of Osceola Co. to Lake Okeechobee into this
eve. Tempo MVFR conds in shra/tsra psbl in the affected locations.
Light onshore winds through dusk wl become VRBL tonight. Somewhat
higher rain chcs Sat wl have a greater chc of producing brief
cig/vsby reductions to both coastal and inland forecast sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Sat...The slowly weakening subtropical ridge across
central Florida will set up a typical looking summer pattern with
east/southeast flow in the south and a south/southwest gradient
wind in the north. Speeds look 10 knots or less and seas will
continue 3 feet or less. With higher moisture over the south,
expect isolated showers and storms. Afternoon sea breeze
generated showers/storms should mainly occur inland.

Sun-Tue...Ridge axis generally remains across the southern half
of Florida during the weekend and into early next week as a
frontal boundary sags into the southeast U.S. and weakens. Winds
will remain below 15 knots out of the S/SW during the overnight
and early morning hours, becoming more onshore into the afternoon
as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas will range from 1-3
feet nearshore and up to 3-4 feet offshore.

Highest chance for showers and storms will remain over the
interior through this period, with offshore moving storms
unlikely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  74  90 /  10  20  20  30
MCO  75  95  75  93 /  20  30  20  40
MLB  76  90  75  89 /  10  20  20  30
VRB  75  90  74  89 /  20  20  10  20
LEE  76  96  77  94 /  30  30  20  50
SFB  75  95  76  93 /  20  30  10  40
ORL  76  94  76  93 /  20  30  20  40
FPR  74  89  73  88 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Ulrich




000
FXUS62 KMLB 241929
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
329 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight...Isold/Sct diurnal pcpn, and perhaps a storms or two
related to late boundary collisions will linger through dusk with
activity in the form of showers confined to the marine area and
near shore waters of the Treasure coast overnight.

SAT-SUN...(from prev disc) Slow erosion of subtropical ridge,
which has been present the entire work week across the area will
bring eventual increase in rain chances during the weekend.
A frontal boundary well north of the area wl sags south toward the FL
border, keeping a rather weak S/SW flow over the area. Sea/lake
breeze boundaries wl develop and move inland each afternoon.

Moisture profiles and steering winds aloft favor best chance for
storms over the interior during the afternoon and evening hours.
Convective coverage forecast to be greater on Sunday as deeper
moisture and disturbance aloft builds down into the area ahead of
weakening front to the north.

Highs Saturday will reach the low to mid 90s with heat index values
ranging from 100-105. Then with more showers and storms expected
Sunday, highs will range from the upper 80s to low 90s. Overnight
lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

MON-THU...Models in fairly good agreement into the work week with
ridge axis generally meandering across the southern half of the
Florida peninsula. GFS indicates some initial drying working in
behind passing disturbance aloft early next week, but then
sufficient moisture quickly rebuilds in the low level S/SW flow to
maintain forecast of scattered afternoon showers and storms each day
with greatest coverage expected over the interior from late day sea
breeze/outflow boundary interactions.

Highs continue in the upper 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in
the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing VFR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT shra/TS chances mnly along I-4 and
across interior sections of Osceola Co. to Lake Okeechobee into this
eve. Tempo MVFR conds in shra/tsra psbl in the affected locations.
Light onshore winds through dusk wl become VRBL tonight. Somewhat
higher rain chcs Sat wl have a greater chc of producing brief
cig/vsby reductions to both coastal and inland forecast sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Sat...The slowly weakening subtropical ridge across
central Florida will set up a typical looking summer pattern with
east/southeast flow in the south and a south/southwest gradient
wind in the north. Speeds look 10 knots or less and seas will
continue 3 feet or less. With higher moisture over the south,
expect isolated showers and storms. Afternoon sea breeze
generated showers/storms should mainly occur inland.

Sun-Tue...Ridge axis generally remains across the southern half
of Florida during the weekend and into early next week as a
frontal boundary sags into the southeast U.S. and weakens. Winds
will remain below 15 knots out of the S/SW during the overnight
and early morning hours, becoming more onshore into the afternoon
as the sea breeze forms and moves inland. Seas will range from 1-3
feet nearshore and up to 3-4 feet offshore.

Highest chance for showers and storms will remain over the
interior through this period, with offshore moving storms
unlikely.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  74  90 /  10  20  20  30
MCO  75  95  75  93 /  20  30  20  40
MLB  76  90  75  89 /  10  20  20  30
VRB  75  90  74  89 /  20  20  10  20
LEE  76  96  77  94 /  30  30  20  50
SFB  75  95  76  93 /  20  30  10  40
ORL  76  94  76  93 /  20  30  20  40
FPR  74  89  73  88 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pendergrast
LONG TERM....Ulrich




000
FXUS62 KTAE 241915
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
315 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

An isolated brief shower can`t be ruled out mainly near the coast.
Otherwise, mostly clear skies overnight with light or calm
wind with lows in the lower 70s


.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will cover the Southeast on Saturday, with
heights and lower-tropospheric temperatures running about 2
standard deviations above normal. This will result in afternoon
highs nearing the century mark away from the coast, with apparent
temperatures around 105. Slightly below average PWAT`s will just
be exiting the region to the southwest, so the likelihood of
showers and thunderstorms remains quite low. On Sunday, however,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected as a
shortwave currently moving through the Northern Plains moves
around the ridge and drops south into the region. Though showers
and thunderstorms are expected, they`ll likely start a bit later
in the afternoon, and with the anomalous ridge still in place
another afternoon of upper 90s should be expected.


.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

Ridging will continue through the start of the week, though won`t
be quite anomalous as in the short term period. Through Tuesday,
PoPs will be governed by the varying afternoon seabreeze regimes,
with near normal coverage. Wednesday through Friday, a trough will
drop into the Southeast, introducing a frontal boundary that will
linger through the remainder of the period. Expect PoPs to be
higher than usual and forced along a combination of the seabreeze
and synoptic fronts. Monday will still features slightly above
normal highs, with afternoon highs settling back into the lower to
middle 90s for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions through the TAF cycle with light or calm winds.

&&

.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected for the next
several days. The only exception will be near the coast each
afternoon in the seabreeze zone. Here, expect winds to peak around
10 to 15 knots with a light to moderate chop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

No concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

River, urban, or rural flooding will not be a concern over the
next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  98  73  97  74 /   0  10   0  40  40
Panama City   75  88  77  89  77 /   0   0   0  20  10
Dothan        72  98  74  97  74 /   0  10  10  40  30
Albany        73  99  75  98  74 /   0  10  20  50  40
Valdosta      72  97  74  96  73 /   0  10  10  60  40
Cross City    72  95  72  94  73 /   0  10  10  50  30
Apalachicola  75  90  76  90  77 /   0  10   0  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan




000
FXUS62 KTBW 241913
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
313 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft - A ridge stretched across much of the southern CONUS, from
the southern high plains to Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S.
coast. A short wave trough was over eastern NY and PA. Surface - A
wavy frontal boundary reached from the west U.S. coast to the
northern plains then extended east...reaching offshore from the
Mid-Atlantic states. Atlantic high pressure ridged westward,
through FL to much of the Gulf of Mexico region.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon - Saturday)...
The short wave trough slides offshore and builds south along the
eastern seaboard. Meanwhile the upper ridge shifts westward and
builds toward south-central Canada...but continues to dominate FL
and much of the Gulf. The frontal boundary sags south with the
eastern end reaching the southeastern states...pushing the
Atlantic ridge axis from central to south-central fl while still
extending west over the Gulf.

While there are changes beginning in the synoptic features they are
subtle. The pattern of the last few days will continue...a moist air
mass/ model PWAT values range from around 1.6 inches to about 2
inches from north to south/...daytime heating...and the afternoon
sea breezes will support isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. These will be mainly diurnal and have the greatest
coverage south of I-4 and east of I-75. Temperatures will run a
degree or 2 above for the lows while the highs are on the warm
side.

.LONG TERM(Saturday night through Friday)...
Large scale upper ridging will dominate the southern tier of the
CONUS at the start of the long range period. Several upper
shortwaves will move along the U.S. Canada border region, and
broad troughing looks to develop over New England, with generally
weak flow over the remainder of the country.

For the latter half of the weekend into early next week, expect a
fairly active sea breeze pattern. Upper ridging will remain parked
across the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. The
surface ridge will extend from the western Atlantic into northern
and central Florida, resulting in generally south to southeast low
level flow. This will focus diurnal showers and thunderstorms across
west-central and southwestern Florida, as the afternoon seabreeze is
confined more closely to the west Florida coast. Given increasing
moisture depth into the first part of next week, storm coverage
looks to increase each day into the start of next week.

By mid-week, the dominant upper ridge looks to build westward into
the southwestern U.S. This will allow for broad but deepening low
pressure from the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. A shortwave
looks to drive a cold front southward, resulting in a southward
shift of the surface ridge axis into south Florida. This would
result in light south to southwest flow across the region, with
greater chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across
interior and eastern sections of the Florida Peninsula.

As for temperatures, expect rather hot afternoons through the
weekend with the strong ridge aloft. As the ridge builds westward
through the first half of next week, more seasonal temperatures can
be expected, with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/19Z-25/12Z. Prevailing VFR although TSRA moving east may bring
Brief MVFR and gusty winds during the afternoon. ISOLD TSRA may
drift back toward the ARPTS in the early evening. Light and
variable winds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
a ridge of pressure from the western Atlantic to the Gulf will
meander north and south over FL. The gradient stays relaxed...
allowing an onshore sea breeze component to form along the coast
each afternoon. Wind and seas rather benign with the main concern
locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A moist air mass with some rain chances expected each day will
preclude any concerns about low humidity values for the next few
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  90  78  92 /  20  20  10  50
FMY  76  91  76  93 /  30  30  30  60
GIF  76  93  76  93 /  30  30  10  60
SRQ  77  87  77  90 /  20  10  20  40
BKV  74  91  73  93 /  20  30  10  50
SPG  79  90  79  92 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude
MID TERM...84/Austin




000
FXUS62 KTBW 241913
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
313 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Aloft - A ridge stretched across much of the southern CONUS, from
the southern high plains to Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S.
coast. A short wave trough was over eastern NY and PA. Surface - A
wavy frontal boundary reached from the west U.S. coast to the
northern plains then extended east...reaching offshore from the
Mid-Atlantic states. Atlantic high pressure ridged westward,
through FL to much of the Gulf of Mexico region.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon - Saturday)...
The short wave trough slides offshore and builds south along the
eastern seaboard. Meanwhile the upper ridge shifts westward and
builds toward south-central Canada...but continues to dominate FL
and much of the Gulf. The frontal boundary sags south with the
eastern end reaching the southeastern states...pushing the
Atlantic ridge axis from central to south-central fl while still
extending west over the Gulf.

While there are changes beginning in the synoptic features they are
subtle. The pattern of the last few days will continue...a moist air
mass/ model PWAT values range from around 1.6 inches to about 2
inches from north to south/...daytime heating...and the afternoon
sea breezes will support isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms. These will be mainly diurnal and have the greatest
coverage south of I-4 and east of I-75. Temperatures will run a
degree or 2 above for the lows while the highs are on the warm
side.

.LONG TERM(Saturday night through Friday)...
Large scale upper ridging will dominate the southern tier of the
CONUS at the start of the long range period. Several upper
shortwaves will move along the U.S. Canada border region, and
broad troughing looks to develop over New England, with generally
weak flow over the remainder of the country.

For the latter half of the weekend into early next week, expect a
fairly active sea breeze pattern. Upper ridging will remain parked
across the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida peninsula. The
surface ridge will extend from the western Atlantic into northern
and central Florida, resulting in generally south to southeast low
level flow. This will focus diurnal showers and thunderstorms across
west-central and southwestern Florida, as the afternoon seabreeze is
confined more closely to the west Florida coast. Given increasing
moisture depth into the first part of next week, storm coverage
looks to increase each day into the start of next week.

By mid-week, the dominant upper ridge looks to build westward into
the southwestern U.S. This will allow for broad but deepening low
pressure from the Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic. A shortwave
looks to drive a cold front southward, resulting in a southward
shift of the surface ridge axis into south Florida. This would
result in light south to southwest flow across the region, with
greater chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms across
interior and eastern sections of the Florida Peninsula.

As for temperatures, expect rather hot afternoons through the
weekend with the strong ridge aloft. As the ridge builds westward
through the first half of next week, more seasonal temperatures can
be expected, with highs in the lower 90s and lows in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/19Z-25/12Z. Prevailing VFR although TSRA moving east may bring
Brief MVFR and gusty winds during the afternoon. ISOLD TSRA may
drift back toward the ARPTS in the early evening. Light and
variable winds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
a ridge of pressure from the western Atlantic to the Gulf will
meander north and south over FL. The gradient stays relaxed...
allowing an onshore sea breeze component to form along the coast
each afternoon. Wind and seas rather benign with the main concern
locally higher winds and seas near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A moist air mass with some rain chances expected each day will
preclude any concerns about low humidity values for the next few
days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  78  90  78  92 /  20  20  10  50
FMY  76  91  76  93 /  30  30  30  60
GIF  76  93  76  93 /  30  30  10  60
SRQ  77  87  77  90 /  20  10  20  40
BKV  74  91  73  93 /  20  30  10  50
SPG  79  90  79  92 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude
MID TERM...84/Austin




000
FXUS62 KJAX 241845
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
245 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.NEAR TERM.../Through Saturday/...

High pressure will remain South of the region this period, as
moisture increases. As the moisture increases, diurnal instability
will lead to convection. Best chance for convection this afternoon
will be over Northeast Florida, where better moisture resides. On
Saturday, the best chance for convection will be along the East
coast sea breeze, and over Southeast Georgia due to a weak surface
trough.

Temperatures will continue above normal this period, with readings
reaching near 100 inland. A few locations far inland could reach
heat advisory thresholds Saturday afternoon. However, any convection
would limit this. This potential will be monitored.

.SHORT TERM /Sunday and Monday/...

High pressure aloft will be centered over the ARKLAMISS region on
Sunday. This will place the region on the eastern edge of the
upper ridge, with north to northeasterly flow. Deeper moisture
will advect southward across the region. In addition, a backdoor
cold front is forecast to move into southeast Georgia Sunday
morning and then washout near the FL/GA border Monday morning.

Precipitable water values will increase to around 2 inches on
Sunday, leading to scattered to numerous diurnally driven showers
and storms across the region. Highs are forecast to be in the low
to mid 90s with heat indices 100-107F.

Monday: The eastern periphery of the upper ridge breaks down,
with the center of the upper ridge pushing westward into the four
corners region. At the same time, the surface ridge will shift
eastward off of the mid Atlantic coast. This will allow a light
onshore east to southeast flow to prevail. Drier air is forecast
to push into southeast Georgia during the day on Monday behind the
surface trough, with a more seasonal pattern of daily afternoon
and evening convective development in northeast Florida along the
sea breeze boundaries. As a result, isolated to widely scattered
convection is anticipated along the coast in the morning/early
afternoon with scattered to numerous convection across the
northeast Florida interior during the mid-late afternoon/early as
the sea breeze boundaries collide. High temperatures will be in
the low to mid 90s, except upper 80s near the coast due to the
onshore flow.

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Thursday/...

Tuesday:
Models are in agreement with another eastern CONUS mid/upper level
trough, while the eastern periphery of high pressure aloft
retrogrades further westward. At the surface, subtropical ridging
further retreats into the Atlantic. A very weak gradient will
exist across the region allowing sea breeze boundaries to collide
over the interior, with 40-60% rain chances across the region.
Highs will be in the low/mid 90s inland to upper 80s along the
immediate coast.

Wednesday:
GFS/ECMWF in general agreement with the eastern CONUS upper level
trof axis encroaching the NE and mid Atlantic coasts during the
late afternoon on Wednesday. On Wednesday the surface subtropical
ridge remains at bay over the Atlantic, while on Thursday the
subtropical ridge over the Atlantic extends westward across the FL
peninsula into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will allow an
initial light southwesterly wind to prevail in the morning over
our region, then becoming light south-southwestward direction in
the afternoon. Offshore/southwest flow is not forecast to be very
strong, so the east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop and
move inland. This will set up a potential west coast sea breeze
and deep moisture advection to occur across the region. Where
convection initially during the pre-dawn hours over the Nature
Coast, moving into the Suwannee Valley in the morning, the
spreading eastward toward the First Coast and SE GA coast in the
afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 90s inland to upper 80s
along the immediate coast.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will persist this 18z taf period. A few isolated
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mainly south of
Interstate 10.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure will be South of area waters this weekend, with
increased moisture resulting in convective development. A trough
of low pressure will slide into the Southeastern states toward the
middle of next week, which will keep the region in a stormy
pattern.

Rip Currents: Low risk through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  73  97  74 /  10  10  30  30
SSI  93  78  96  79 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  97  74  96  73 /  10  10  20  10
SGJ  90  76  92  76 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  93  71  94  73 /  20  10  20  20
OCF  93  72  94  73 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Kennedy/Struble/Guillet




000
FXUS62 KKEY 241819
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
220 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under partly sunny skies, temperatures are hovering around 90 degrees
along the island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting only isolated
showers and an occasional thunderstorm traversing through our county
warning area. Surface wise, a splintered ridge is aligned across South
Florida and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters. Winds are east to
southeast at 10 knots or less on our marine district.

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday)...
A subtle low level (surface-850 mb) perturbation will track westward
and across our area late tonight before exiting into the extreme
Southeast Gulf of Mexico Saturday morning. Thereafter, a predominate
easterly flow will back and decrease slightly which should allow cloud
line genesis on Sunday afternoon and again on Monday. But until then,
low level confluence with plenty of moisture will prompt pops to be
raised to 50 percent for late tonight and 40 percent early Saturday
morning. Thereafter, 20 to 30 percent pops seem reasonable for the balance
of the weekend and early next week. See no reason to stray from high
temperatures near 90 with overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Friday)...
A western Atlantic ridge lying near South Florida will build westward
and into the Gulf of Mexico with only subtle poleward movement for
the balance of the week. Given no apparent large scale ascent or discernible
low level undulations, enough low level moisture within a modest easterly
trajectory will prompt only 20 to 30 percent pops. Plenty of strong insolation
will allow high temperatures to climb just above 90 degrees with overnight
lows generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to gentle east to southeast winds will become gentle to moderate tonight,
with gentle to moderate winds  persisting into early Sunday morning before slowly
slackening thereafter. Subsequently, no advisories will be needed for our
entire marine district for at least the next several days.
&&

.AVIATION...
Shower and storm activity has decreased significantly since this
morning, but still continuing to hold vicinity showers for both the
Key West and Marathon terminals throughout the remainder of the TAF
period. Surface winds are expected to continue east or east-southeast
at 7 to 11 knots...and increasing slightly towards evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1938, the daily record low temperature of 71 degrees was last
recorded in Key West. Temperature records have been kept since 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81 89 81 89 / 50 40 30 20
Marathon  81 91 80 91 / 50 40 30 20
30

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....EV
DATA ACQUISITION......DR
Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at...
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest




000
FXUS62 KKEY 241819
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
220 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under partly sunny skies, temperatures are hovering around 90 degrees
along the island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are detecting only isolated
showers and an occasional thunderstorm traversing through our county
warning area. Surface wise, a splintered ridge is aligned across South
Florida and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters. Winds are east to
southeast at 10 knots or less on our marine district.

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday)...
A subtle low level (surface-850 mb) perturbation will track westward
and across our area late tonight before exiting into the extreme
Southeast Gulf of Mexico Saturday morning. Thereafter, a predominate
easterly flow will back and decrease slightly which should allow cloud
line genesis on Sunday afternoon and again on Monday. But until then,
low level confluence with plenty of moisture will prompt pops to be
raised to 50 percent for late tonight and 40 percent early Saturday
morning. Thereafter, 20 to 30 percent pops seem reasonable for the balance
of the weekend and early next week. See no reason to stray from high
temperatures near 90 with overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Friday)...
A western Atlantic ridge lying near South Florida will build westward
and into the Gulf of Mexico with only subtle poleward movement for
the balance of the week. Given no apparent large scale ascent or discernible
low level undulations, enough low level moisture within a modest easterly
trajectory will prompt only 20 to 30 percent pops. Plenty of strong insolation
will allow high temperatures to climb just above 90 degrees with overnight
lows generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to gentle east to southeast winds will become gentle to moderate tonight,
with gentle to moderate winds  persisting into early Sunday morning before slowly
slackening thereafter. Subsequently, no advisories will be needed for our
entire marine district for at least the next several days.
&&

.AVIATION...
Shower and storm activity has decreased significantly since this
morning, but still continuing to hold vicinity showers for both the
Key West and Marathon terminals throughout the remainder of the TAF
period. Surface winds are expected to continue east or east-southeast
at 7 to 11 knots...and increasing slightly towards evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1938, the daily record low temperature of 71 degrees was last
recorded in Key West. Temperature records have been kept since 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81 89 81 89 / 50 40 30 20
Marathon  81 91 80 91 / 50 40 30 20
30

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....EV
DATA ACQUISITION......DR
Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at...
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241753
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
153 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms this afternoon around APF and inland of the east
coast terminals. Showers will still be possible around the east
coast terminals after 19z. After convection diminishes later
today, wind will become lighter and variable again for the
overnight. Shower activity will once again begin on Saturday
morning with thunderstorms possible on Saturday late morning into
the afternoon. Confidence is not high enough with this issuance to
include VCTS or any restrictions for Saturday.

02/RAG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1034 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Convection has already kicked off for the day over interior
portions of the peninsula. Have updated the forecast to show this
trend for early showers before thunderstorms are expected to
develop by the afternoon. -5 deg C at 500 mb off the 12z MFL
sounding are partly indicative of a low chance for hail or severe
storms today, though some drier air aloft could potentially create
steeper lapse rates as the airmass modifies with diurnal heating.
The main threat today continues to be lightning from thunderstorms
that develop.

Otherwise, the forecast appears to be on track with the easterly
flow pinning the Gulf sea breeze over the western half of the
peninsula, focusing convection over western portions of the
forecast area today. Updated zones have been transmitted to update
wording after the minor changes to the forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 433 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Latest model guidance continues to show good agreement with the
forecast for South Florida. The bermuda high remains to the east
while fluctuating in strength into next week. The 500MB ridge
dominates across the central and Southeast plains through the
period. Precipitable water range between 1.8 to 2.2 inches with
some drier air in the mid levels moving across the area but there
still potential for showers to develop Friday afternoon. Expect
this activity to develop in the interior and towards the Gulf
coast with ongoing storm-lake-seabreeze boundary collisions. Main
concerns will be frequent lightning strikes and a few gusts to 40
mph.

Sunday-Next Week: The light easterly flow continues along the
Florida peninsula through much of the week. Upper level ridge
will migrate eastwards across the Deep South before gradually
retrograding into the desert SW next week. The influence of the
ridge keeps temperatures relatively warm aloft ranging from -6 to
-7C Saturday. Then Sunday and next week temperatures cool down
into -7 to -8C. This would help for a better chance of some strong
storms to develop Sunday and Monday. The highest coverage will
generally be over the western interior and just inland from the
Gulf coast where the east coast breeze collides with the weaker
Gulf coast breeze. Frequent lightning will remain the main concern
with activity, along with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
This convective pattern will continue through the end of the week.

MARINE...Western Atlantic ridge will keep an east to southeast
flow across the South Florida waters through much of the forecast
period under a weak PG. Convection will be possible through the
period with a few stronger storms Sunday and Monday. Winds remain
light to moderate keeping seas slight through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  90  79  89 /  20  30  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  89 /  20  30  10  20
Miami            80  91  80  91 /  20  30  10  20
Naples           77  91  76  91 /  30  40  10  40

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...02/RG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241753
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
153 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms this afternoon around APF and inland of the east
coast terminals. Showers will still be possible around the east
coast terminals after 19z. After convection diminishes later
today, wind will become lighter and variable again for the
overnight. Shower activity will once again begin on Saturday
morning with thunderstorms possible on Saturday late morning into
the afternoon. Confidence is not high enough with this issuance to
include VCTS or any restrictions for Saturday.

02/RAG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1034 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

UPDATE...
Convection has already kicked off for the day over interior
portions of the peninsula. Have updated the forecast to show this
trend for early showers before thunderstorms are expected to
develop by the afternoon. -5 deg C at 500 mb off the 12z MFL
sounding are partly indicative of a low chance for hail or severe
storms today, though some drier air aloft could potentially create
steeper lapse rates as the airmass modifies with diurnal heating.
The main threat today continues to be lightning from thunderstorms
that develop.

Otherwise, the forecast appears to be on track with the easterly
flow pinning the Gulf sea breeze over the western half of the
peninsula, focusing convection over western portions of the
forecast area today. Updated zones have been transmitted to update
wording after the minor changes to the forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 433 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Latest model guidance continues to show good agreement with the
forecast for South Florida. The bermuda high remains to the east
while fluctuating in strength into next week. The 500MB ridge
dominates across the central and Southeast plains through the
period. Precipitable water range between 1.8 to 2.2 inches with
some drier air in the mid levels moving across the area but there
still potential for showers to develop Friday afternoon. Expect
this activity to develop in the interior and towards the Gulf
coast with ongoing storm-lake-seabreeze boundary collisions. Main
concerns will be frequent lightning strikes and a few gusts to 40
mph.

Sunday-Next Week: The light easterly flow continues along the
Florida peninsula through much of the week. Upper level ridge
will migrate eastwards across the Deep South before gradually
retrograding into the desert SW next week. The influence of the
ridge keeps temperatures relatively warm aloft ranging from -6 to
-7C Saturday. Then Sunday and next week temperatures cool down
into -7 to -8C. This would help for a better chance of some strong
storms to develop Sunday and Monday. The highest coverage will
generally be over the western interior and just inland from the
Gulf coast where the east coast breeze collides with the weaker
Gulf coast breeze. Frequent lightning will remain the main concern
with activity, along with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
This convective pattern will continue through the end of the week.

MARINE...Western Atlantic ridge will keep an east to southeast
flow across the South Florida waters through much of the forecast
period under a weak PG. Convection will be possible through the
period with a few stronger storms Sunday and Monday. Winds remain
light to moderate keeping seas slight through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  90  79  89 /  20  30  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  89 /  20  30  10  20
Miami            80  91  80  91 /  20  30  10  20
Naples           77  91  76  91 /  30  40  10  40

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...02/RG




000
FXUS62 KTBW 241740
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
140 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
24/18Z-25/12Z. Prevailing VFR although TSRA along the sea breeze
boundary may bring Brief MVFR and gusty winds. The TSRA move east
during the afternoon but then may drift back toward the ARPTS in
the early evening. Light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 902 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM (Rest of today)...
Ridge axis continues across central FL today with light mostly
east and southeast winds that shift to onshore in an afternoon
sea breeze. A moist air mass remains in place, the 12Z TBW
sounding came in with 1.6 inches of PWAT. This moisture, some
daytime heating, and lift along the sea breeze boundary will
result in another day of afternoon showers and storms. The highest
coverage will be inland and south. The showers/storms wind down
in the early evening but a few may drift back toward the coast as
the sea breeze collapses.

MARINE...
High pressure ridging westward across the waters today, with a
relaxed gradient, will result in easterly winds that shift to
onshore in the afternoon at no more than 10 knots. Main concern
will be higher winds/seas near thunderstorms. Next forecast out
around 10 AM with little change.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  93  78  90  79 /  20  20  20  10
FMY  92  76  91  76 /  40  30  30  20
GIF  96  76  93  77 /  40  30  30  10
SRQ  90  77  87  77 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  93  74  91  73 /  20  20  30  10
SPG  90  79  90  79 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/Rude
SHORT TERM/MARINE...09/Rude




000
FXUS62 KTAE 241738
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
138 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions through the TAF cycle with light or calm winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [924 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Stacked high pressure will remain in place over the northern Gulf
coast today. Low level flow from the southwest will help advect some
Gulf moisture to the area, but with weak western and northern flow
aloft, model precipitable water values remain in the 1-1.5" range,
which is about 75% of normal for our area for this time of year.
Because of this dry airmass in place over north Florida, we don`t
expect much in our area in terms of thunderstorm coverage, however,
there will be about a 20% chance for thunderstorms just east of our
area over the Florida Peninsula, so there is a very small chance
(less than 10%) that an isolated storm may make it into the
eastern Big Bend in the afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Mainly dry conditions will persist through Saturday night as the
upper level ridge remains in place and relatively low PWAT values
(near 1.5" or less) persist over our area. A few isolated
showers/storms can`t be ruled out across the eastern Big Bend and
parts of SW Georgia on Saturday afternoon, when instability is
maximized. Moisture will increase on Sunday afternoon, with PWAT
values approaching 2". Although no upper level forcing will be
present, the sea breeze along with increased moisture and
instability should be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of our area on Sunday afternoon and
early evening. Saturday looks like the hotter day with highs in
the upper 90s, possibly approaching 100 in some locations, but
increased humidity on Sunday with highs in the mid-90s should
allow the heat index to reach/exceed 100 on both days. Lows in the
low-mid 70s are likely during this period.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible
through this period, with chances highest each afternoon and early
evening due to the diurnal sea breeze circulation and maximized
instability during these times. An upper level ridge will be
present early in the period, along with some relatively drier air
in place on Monday due to light northeasterly flow. As a result,
it looks like precipitation coverage on Monday may be more sparse
than the remainder of the week, when increased moisture will
return to our area. By the middle of the week, an upper level
trough will dip into the southeastern CONUS along with a quasi-
stationary front at the surface stretching across central AL and
GA. These features could slightly enhance coverage of showers and
storms across our area, especially across SE AL and SW GA.
Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist during this
period, with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows/dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s.


.MARINE...

Light winds generally from 5-10 knots will persist over the
northeastern Gulf for the next several days, resulting in light
seas of 1-2 feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected today and Saturday with
more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms returning on
Sunday. Relative humidity values will remain above critical
thresholds through the period.


.HYDROLOGY...

Little rain is expected through the first half of the weekend. After
this, significant rainfall amounts are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   72  98  74  96  74 /   0  10  10  50  30
Panama City   75  87  77  88  77 /   0   0   0  20  20
Dothan        73  97  74  96  75 /   0  10  10  40  30
Albany        73  99  75  95  74 /   0  10  20  40  30
Valdosta      72  98  73  94  74 /   0  10  10  50  30
Cross City    72  94  74  93  74 /   0  10  10  50  30
Apalachicola  75  88  76  89  77 /   0   0   0  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Moore
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Moore
FIRE WEATHER...Lahr
HYDROLOGY...Moore




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241434 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
1034 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Convection has already kicked off for the day over interior
portions of the peninsula. Have updated the forecast to show this
trend for early showers before thunderstorms are expected to
develop by the afternoon. -5 deg C at 500 mb off the 12z MFL
sounding are partly indicative of a low chance for hail or severe
storms today, though some drier air aloft could potentially create
steeper lapse rates as the airmass modifies with diurnal heating.
The main threat today continues to be lightning from thunderstorms
that develop.

Otherwise, the forecast appears to be on track with the easterly
flow pinning the Gulf sea breeze over the western half of the
peninsula, focusing convection over western portions of the
forecast area today. Updated zones have been transmitted to update
wording after the minor changes to the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 759 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

AVIATION...
Morning showers coming off the Atlantic could be around the
east coast terminals with a transition to thunderstorms being
possible by afternoon. Threat of thunderstorms this afternoon will
be highest at APF and inland of the east coast terminals. Wind
should remain light this morning, becoming stronger out of the
east along the east coast terminals and out of the west to
southwest at APF with the sea breezes later this morning. After
convection diminishes later today, wind will become lighter and
variable again for the overnight.

02/RAG

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 433 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Latest model guidance continues to show good agreement with the
forecast for South Florida. The bermuda high remains to the east
while fluctuating in strength into next week. The 500MB ridge
dominates across the central and Southeast plains through the
period. Precipitable water range between 1.8 to 2.2 inches with
some drier air in the mid levels moving across the area but there
still potential for showers to develop Friday afternoon. Expect
this activity to develop in the interior and towards the Gulf
coast with ongoing storm-lake-seabreeze boundary collisions. Main
concerns will be frequent lightning strikes and a few gusts to 40
mph.

Sunday-Next Week: The light easterly flow continues along the
Florida peninsula through much of the week. Upper level ridge
will migrate eastwards across the Deep South before gradually
retrograding into the desert SW next week. The influence of the
ridge keeps temperatures relatively warm aloft ranging from -6 to
-7C Saturday. Then Sunday and next week temperatures cool down
into -7 to -8C. This would help for a better chance of some strong
storms to develop Sunday and Monday. The highest coverage will
generally be over the western interior and just inland from the
Gulf coast where the east coast breeze collides with the weaker
Gulf coast breeze. Frequent lightning will remain the main concern
with activity, along with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
This convective pattern will continue through the end of the week.

MARINE...Western Atlantic ridge will keep an east to southeast
flow across the South Florida waters through much of the forecast
period under a weak PG. Convection will be possible through the
period with a few stronger storms Sunday and Monday. Winds remain
light to moderate keeping seas slight through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  79  90  79 /  30  20  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  90  80 /  30  20  30  10
Miami            91  80  91  80 /  40  20  30  10
Naples           90  77  91  76 /  40  30  40  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Update...02/RAG




000
FXUS62 KKEY 241421
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1020 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Local radars are detecting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across
our entire county warning area. Under partly cloudy skies and light southeast
winds of around 10 mph, temperatures are averaging in the mid 80s along
the island chain. Surface wise, a Western Atlantic ridge is aligned across
the Florida peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. Winds are mostly east
at 5 to 10 knots in our marine district. Otherwise, our morning sounding
reveals a moist (pwat 2.13 inches) and conditionally unstable airmass in
place. Winds are light to gentle, but fairly chaotic reaching well into
the troposphere.

.SHORT TERM (Rest of today)...
The combination of an abundance of moisture and a subtle low level undulation
migrating through our area over the next 18 to 24 hours will result in above
normal rain chances. Plenty of insolation combined with a light southeast
trajectory will allow high temperatures to climb to near 90 degrees.
Since the current forecast was updated early to remove transitional
wording, no additional changes are planned.

&&

.MARINE...
Away from any showers, thunderstorms or outflow boundaries, mostly east winds
of around 10 knots can be expected on our marine district.
&&

.AVIATION...
Showers and a few thunderstorm will be the main concern for aviators
today. Held vicinity showers for both the Key West and Marathon
terminals throughout the remainder of the TAF period. Holding onto
VFR conditions and will amend as necessary for showers bringing in
sub-vfr conditions. Surface winds are expected to continue east or
east-southeast at 7 to 11 knots...and increasing slightly towards
evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1938, the daily record low temperature of 71 degrees was last recorded
in Key West. Temperature records have been kept since 1872.

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....EV
DATA COLLECTION.......DR

Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at...
www.facebook.com/nwskeywest
www.twitter.com/nwskeywest




000
FXUS62 KMLB 241325
AFDMLB

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
924 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Today-Tonight...Environmental conds have become a little more
favorable for dvlpmt of afternoon convection. Sounding data from XMR
this am shows H5 cooling of around 1C from Thursday along with some
increase in avbl PWAT. Relatively light winds from the sfc through
~10kt ft wl lead to a predominant sea/lake breeze boundary setup
along both coasts with development of isold showers along an inland
moving east coast boundary by midday. Current forecast depiction of
sct showers and isolated storms across central and southern zones
with an interior focus due to boundary collisions past mid-afternoon
looks reasonable and no adjustments are pending.

(prev disc): Axis of surface high pressure ridge was across central
Florida. A band of higher moisture is shown by the models to the
south of this axis, while water vapor imagery showed subsidence and
drier air across the north half of the peninsula. This pattern will
favor a quicker inland moving sea breeze boundary across the south.
With higher moisture over that region, expect scattered showers and
isolated storms to form by early afternoon and propagate inland. The
HRRR model has started to show this scenario. Farther north where
moisture is lower, expect coverage to be less except where the
east/west coast boundaries collide.  The GFS and NAM suggest that
this will be close to Lake county late in the afternoon. Therefore,
will carry chance PoPs up into that area too. Some of the convection
should linger into evening especially in Lake county and around
Okeechobee. Temps look similar to yesterday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(prev disc): VFR conditions this morning. There is a slight chance
for showers or storms early in the afternoon at the coastal
terminals especially KTIX-KSUA as the sea breeze forms. Highest
coverage of mid afternoon to early evening storms should be south of
KISM-KMCO, except for possible scattered coverage KLEE late in the
day.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...High pressure ridge across central Florida will set
up a typical looking summer pattern with east/southeast flow in the
south and a south/southwest gradient wind in the north. Speeds look
10 knots or less and seas will continue 3 feet or less. With higher
moisture over the south, expect isolated showers and storms especially
this morning. Afternoon sea breeze generated showers/storms should
mainly occur inland.

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

JP/WU




000
FXUS62 KTAE 241324
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
924 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

No changes needed to current forecast package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [631 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Stacked high pressure will remain in place over the northern Gulf
coast today. Low level flow from the southwest will help advect some
Gulf moisture to the area, but with weak western and northern flow
aloft, model precipitable water values remain in the 1-1.5" range,
which is about 75% of normal for our area for this time of year.
Because of this dry airmass in place over north Florida, we don`t
expect much in our area in terms of thunderstorm coverage, however,
there will be about a 20% chance for thunderstorms just east of our
area over the Florida Peninsula, so there is a very small chance
(less than 10%) that an isolated storm may make it into the
eastern Big Bend in the afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Mainly dry conditions will persist through Saturday night as the
upper level ridge remains in place and relatively low PWAT values
(near 1.5" or less) persist over our area. A few isolated
showers/storms can`t be ruled out across the eastern Big Bend and
parts of SW Georgia on Saturday afternoon, when instability is
maximized. Moisture will increase on Sunday afternoon, with PWAT
values approaching 2". Although no upper level forcing will be
present, the sea breeze along with increased moisture and
instability should be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of our area on Sunday afternoon and
early evening. Saturday looks like the hotter day with highs in
the upper 90s, possibly approaching 100 in some locations, but
increased humidity on Sunday with highs in the mid-90s should
allow the heat index to reach/exceed 100 on both days. Lows in the
low-mid 70s are likely during this period.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible
through this period, with chances highest each afternoon and early
evening due to the diurnal sea breeze circulation and maximized
instability during these times. An upper level ridge will be
present early in the period, along with some relatively drier air
in place on Monday due to light northeasterly flow. As a result,
it looks like precipitation coverage on Monday may be more sparse
than the remainder of the week, when increased moisture will
return to our area. By the middle of the week, an upper level
trough will dip into the southeastern CONUS along with a quasi-
stationary front at the surface stretching across central AL and
GA. These features could slightly enhance coverage of showers and
storms across our area, especially across SE AL and SW GA.
Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist during this
period, with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows/dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]...

Expect VFR conditions through at least 09Z with light (less than 10
knot) west winds. Our local hi-res ensemble is showing a 20% chance
of IFR visibilities developing across the Florida Big Bend in the 09-
12Z time period, but confidence is too low at this time to include
it in this TAF package.


.MARINE...

Light winds generally from 5-10 knots will persist over the
northeastern Gulf for the next several days, resulting in light
seas of 1-2 feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected today and Saturday with
more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms returning on
Sunday. Relative humidity values will remain above critical
thresholds through the period.


.HYDROLOGY...

Little rain is expected through the first half of the weekend. After
this, significant rainfall amounts are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   96  73  98  74  96 /   0   0  10  10  50
Panama City   87  76  87  77  88 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dothan        95  72  97  74  96 /   0   0  10  10  40
Albany        97  73  99  75  95 /   0   0  10  20  40
Valdosta      96  72  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  10  50
Cross City    94  73  94  74  93 /  10   0  10  10  50
Apalachicola  89  75  88  76  89 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barry
NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Fieux




000
FXUS62 KTBW 241302
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
902 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM (Rest of today)...
Ridge axis continues across central FL today with light mostly
east and southeast winds that shift to onshore in an afternoon
sea breeze. A moist air mass remains in place, the 12Z TBW
sounding came in with 1.6 inches of PWAT. This moisture, some
daytime heating, and lift along the sea breeze boundary will
result in another day of afternoon showers and storms. The highest
coverage will be inland and south. The showers/storms wind down
in the early evening but a few may drift back toward the coast as
the sea breeze collapses.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/13Z-25/12Z. Prevailing VFR although Brief MVFR possible AFT
18Z as SHRA/TSRA form along the sea breeze boundary then push
inland on the westerly flow. ISOLD TSRA may drift back toward the
ARPTs in the early evening. Light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridging westward across the waters today, with a
relaxed gradient, will result in easterly winds that shift to
onshore in the afternoon at no more than 10 knots. Main concern
will be higher winds/seas near thunderstorms. Next forecast out
around 10 AM with little change.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  93  78  93  79 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  40  30  40  20
GIF  96  75  96  77 /  30  20  40  10
SRQ  90  77  90  77 /  20  10  20  10
BKV  93  74  93  73 /  20  20  30  10
SPG  90  79  90  79 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude
DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin
UPPER AIR...05/Carlisle




000
FXUS62 KTBW 241302
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
902 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SHORT TERM (Rest of today)...
Ridge axis continues across central FL today with light mostly
east and southeast winds that shift to onshore in an afternoon
sea breeze. A moist air mass remains in place, the 12Z TBW
sounding came in with 1.6 inches of PWAT. This moisture, some
daytime heating, and lift along the sea breeze boundary will
result in another day of afternoon showers and storms. The highest
coverage will be inland and south. The showers/storms wind down
in the early evening but a few may drift back toward the coast as
the sea breeze collapses.

&&

.AVIATION...
24/13Z-25/12Z. Prevailing VFR although Brief MVFR possible AFT
18Z as SHRA/TSRA form along the sea breeze boundary then push
inland on the westerly flow. ISOLD TSRA may drift back toward the
ARPTs in the early evening. Light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridging westward across the waters today, with a
relaxed gradient, will result in easterly winds that shift to
onshore in the afternoon at no more than 10 knots. Main concern
will be higher winds/seas near thunderstorms. Next forecast out
around 10 AM with little change.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  93  78  93  79 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  40  30  40  20
GIF  96  75  96  77 /  30  20  40  10
SRQ  90  77  90  77 /  20  10  20  10
BKV  93  74  93  73 /  20  20  30  10
SPG  90  79  90  79 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/Rude
DECISION SUPPORT...84/Austin
UPPER AIR...05/Carlisle




000
FXUS62 KJAX 241257
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
857 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.UPDATE...

High pressure will be South of the region this afternoon.
Isolated convection is expected to develop in an increasingly
moist and unstable airmass over Northeast Florida this afternoon,
mainly South of interstate 10.

Temperatures away from the coast will rise into the middle to
upper 90s this afternoon. However dewpoints will not be high
enough to produce heat index values necessary for a heat
advisory.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this 12z TAF period. A few
afternoon thunderstorms are expected, mainly South of interstate
10, with a storm possibly affecting KGNV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  97  74  97  75 /  10  10  30  30
SSI  93  78  95  78 /  10  10  30  30
JAX  97  74  97  76 /  10  10  20  10
SGJ  90  76  94  76 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  93  73  96  74 /  20  10  20  10
OCF  93  73  94  75 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.JAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Struble




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241159
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
759 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Morning showers coming off the Atlantic could be around the
east coast terminals with a transition to thunderstorms being
possible by afternoon. Threat of thunderstorms this afternoon will
be highest at APF and inland of the east coast terminals. Wind
should remain light this morning, becoming stronger out of the
east along the east coast terminals and out of the west to
southwest at APF with the sea breezes later this morning. After
convection diminishes later today, wind will become lighter and
variable again for the overnight.

02/RAG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 433 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Latest model guidance continues to show good agreement with the
forecast for South Florida. The bermuda high remains to the east
while fluctuating in strength into next week. The 500MB ridge
dominates across the central and Southeast plains through the
period. Precipitable water range between 1.8 to 2.2 inches with
some drier air in the mid levels moving across the area but there
still potential for showers to develop Friday afternoon. Expect
this activity to develop in the interior and towards the Gulf
coast with ongoing storm-lake-seabreeze boundary collisions. Main
concerns will be frequent lightning strikes and a few gusts to 40
mph.

Sunday-Next Week: The light easterly flow continues along the
Florida peninsula through much of the week. Upper level ridge
will migrate eastwards across the Deep South before gradually
retrograding into the desert SW next week. The influence of the
ridge keeps temperatures relatively warm aloft ranging from -6 to
-7C Saturday. Then Sunday and next week temperatures cool down
into -7 to -8C. This would help for a better chance of some strong
storms to develop Sunday and Monday. The highest coverage will
generally be over the western interior and just inland from the
Gulf coast where the east coast breeze collides with the weaker
Gulf coast breeze. Frequent lightning will remain the main concern
with activity, along with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
This convective pattern will continue through the end of the week.

MARINE...Western Atlantic ridge will keep an east to southeast
flow across the South Florida waters through much of the forecast
period under a weak PG. Convection will be possible through the
period with a few stronger storms Sunday and Monday. Winds remain
light to moderate keeping seas slight through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  90  79  90  79 /  30  20  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  90  80 /  30  20  30  10
Miami            91  80  91  80 /  40  20  30  10
Naples           90  77  91  76 /  40  30  40  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Aviation...02/RAG




000
FXUS62 KTBW 241129
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
729 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
24/12Z-25/12Z. Prevailing VFR although Brief MVFR possible AFT
18Z as SHRA/TSRA form along the sea breeze boundary then push
inland on the westerly flow. ISOLD TSRA may drift back toward the
ARPTs in the early evening. Light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today - Saturday)...
Models continue in good agreement this morning so a blend will be
used. Upper level ridging covering the southern third of the
U.S. and surface high pressure from the western Atlantic extending
west across the central Florida peninsula will remain in place
through the short term period.

Similar to yesterday a slow increase in moisture combined with
daytime heating will support scattered diurnal sea breeze driven
showers and storms across central and southern portions of the
forecast area today, with the best storm coverage and highest rain
chances setting up along and to the east of the I-75 corridor
during the afternoon and early evening hours with some of the
convection moving back toward the coast during the evening hours.
Further to the north across the Nature Coast only isolated storm
coverage is again expected today due to slightly drier air and
suppression from the upper ridge. A weak steering flow will
support slow moving storms today which will favor some locally
heavy rainfall in some locations. In addition, gusty winds and
frequent lightning strikes will accompany the storms.

On Saturday moisture will continue to increase and with less
suppression from the upper ridge better prospects for showers and
storms will occur over the Nature Coast counties during the
afternoon and early evening hours similar to central and southern
locations with area-wide pops in the 30 to 40 percent range
expected from north to south.

Above normal temperatures will continue with overnight lows in the
mid 70s inland areas, and upper 70s to around 80 along the
coast, with daytime highs climbing into the lower 90s along the
coast, and mid to upper 90s inland.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night - Thursday)...
Models continue in good agreement through the period with upper
ridge over the Lower Mississippi River Valley slowly retrograding
westward early next week while the upper trough in the Western
Atlantic briefly becomes closed low off of New England. These
features to keep weak upper flow over the state through mid week.
At the surface, weak Bermuda high settles into the region
keeping a light wind flow in place. Expect near normal to warm
summertime temperatures with scattered to numerous afternoon into
evening sea breeze/boundary interaction convection daily.


MARINE...
Surface high pressure from the western Atlantic extending west
across the north-central Florida peninsula and into the eastern
Gulf will maintain a light east to southeast wind flow and
slight seas over the Gulf waters today through early next week,
with a weak pressure pattern supporting a developing onshore sea
breeze component along the coast each afternoon. Wind and seas
will remain below 15 knots and 5 feet through the period with no
headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER...
Ample low level moisture combined with daily rain chances will
keep humidity values well above critical levels today through
early next week with no fire weather issues expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  93  78  93  79 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  40  30  40  20
GIF  96  75  96  77 /  30  20  40  10
SRQ  90  77  90  77 /  20  10  20  10
BKV  93  74  93  73 /  20  20  30  10
SPG  90  79  90  79 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/Rude
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
LONG TERM...25/Davis




000
FXUS62 KTBW 241129
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
729 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
24/12Z-25/12Z. Prevailing VFR although Brief MVFR possible AFT
18Z as SHRA/TSRA form along the sea breeze boundary then push
inland on the westerly flow. ISOLD TSRA may drift back toward the
ARPTs in the early evening. Light and variable winds overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016/

SHORT TERM (Today - Saturday)...
Models continue in good agreement this morning so a blend will be
used. Upper level ridging covering the southern third of the
U.S. and surface high pressure from the western Atlantic extending
west across the central Florida peninsula will remain in place
through the short term period.

Similar to yesterday a slow increase in moisture combined with
daytime heating will support scattered diurnal sea breeze driven
showers and storms across central and southern portions of the
forecast area today, with the best storm coverage and highest rain
chances setting up along and to the east of the I-75 corridor
during the afternoon and early evening hours with some of the
convection moving back toward the coast during the evening hours.
Further to the north across the Nature Coast only isolated storm
coverage is again expected today due to slightly drier air and
suppression from the upper ridge. A weak steering flow will
support slow moving storms today which will favor some locally
heavy rainfall in some locations. In addition, gusty winds and
frequent lightning strikes will accompany the storms.

On Saturday moisture will continue to increase and with less
suppression from the upper ridge better prospects for showers and
storms will occur over the Nature Coast counties during the
afternoon and early evening hours similar to central and southern
locations with area-wide pops in the 30 to 40 percent range
expected from north to south.

Above normal temperatures will continue with overnight lows in the
mid 70s inland areas, and upper 70s to around 80 along the
coast, with daytime highs climbing into the lower 90s along the
coast, and mid to upper 90s inland.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night - Thursday)...
Models continue in good agreement through the period with upper
ridge over the Lower Mississippi River Valley slowly retrograding
westward early next week while the upper trough in the Western
Atlantic briefly becomes closed low off of New England. These
features to keep weak upper flow over the state through mid week.
At the surface, weak Bermuda high settles into the region
keeping a light wind flow in place. Expect near normal to warm
summertime temperatures with scattered to numerous afternoon into
evening sea breeze/boundary interaction convection daily.


MARINE...
Surface high pressure from the western Atlantic extending west
across the north-central Florida peninsula and into the eastern
Gulf will maintain a light east to southeast wind flow and
slight seas over the Gulf waters today through early next week,
with a weak pressure pattern supporting a developing onshore sea
breeze component along the coast each afternoon. Wind and seas
will remain below 15 knots and 5 feet through the period with no
headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER...
Ample low level moisture combined with daily rain chances will
keep humidity values well above critical levels today through
early next week with no fire weather issues expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  93  78  93  79 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  92  76  92  76 /  40  30  40  20
GIF  96  75  96  77 /  30  20  40  10
SRQ  90  77  90  77 /  20  10  20  10
BKV  93  74  93  73 /  20  20  30  10
SPG  90  79  90  79 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TBW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/Rude
SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/McMichael
LONG TERM...25/Davis




000
FXUS62 KTAE 241031
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
631 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]...

Expect VFR conditions through at least 09Z with light (less than 10
knot) west winds. Our local hi-res ensemble is showing a 20% chance
of IFR visibilities developing across the Florida Big Bend in the 09-
12Z time period, but confidence is too low at this time to include
it in this TAF package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [254 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

Stacked high pressure will remain in place over the northern Gulf
coast today. Low level flow from the southwest will help advect some
Gulf moisture to the area, but with weak western and northern flow
aloft, model precipitable water values remain in the 1-1.5" range,
which is about 75% of normal for our area for this time of year.
Because of this dry airmass in place over north Florida, we don`t
expect much in our area in terms of thunderstorm coverage, however,
there will be about a 20% chance for thunderstorms just east of our
area over the Florida Peninsula, so there is a very small chance
(less than 10%) that an isolated storm may make it into the
eastern Big Bend in the afternoon.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Mainly dry conditions will persist through Saturday night as the
upper level ridge remains in place and relatively low PWAT values
(near 1.5" or less) persist over our area. A few isolated
showers/storms can`t be ruled out across the eastern Big Bend and
parts of SW Georgia on Saturday afternoon, when instability is
maximized. Moisture will increase on Sunday afternoon, with PWAT
values approaching 2". Although no upper level forcing will be
present, the sea breeze along with increased moisture and
instability should be sufficient for scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of our area on Sunday afternoon and
early evening. Saturday looks like the hotter day with highs in
the upper 90s, possibly approaching 100 in some locations, but
increased humidity on Sunday with highs in the mid-90s should
allow the heat index to reach/exceed 100 on both days. Lows in the
low-mid 70s are likely during this period.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible
through this period, with chances highest each afternoon and early
evening due to the diurnal sea breeze circulation and maximized
instability during these times. An upper level ridge will be
present early in the period, along with some relatively drier air
in place on Monday due to light northeasterly flow. As a result,
it looks like precipitation coverage on Monday may be more sparse
than the remainder of the week, when increased moisture will
return to our area. By the middle of the week, an upper level
trough will dip into the southeastern CONUS along with a quasi-
stationary front at the surface stretching across central AL and
GA. These features could slightly enhance coverage of showers and
storms across our area, especially across SE AL and SW GA.
Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist during this
period, with highs in the low-mid 90s and lows/dewpoints in the
low-mid 70s.


.MARINE...

Light winds generally from 5-10 knots will persist over the
northeastern Gulf for the next several days, resulting in light
seas of 1-2 feet or less.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected today and Saturday with
more widespread chances for showers and thunderstorms returning on
Sunday. Relative humidity values will remain above critical
thresholds through the period.


.HYDROLOGY...

Little rain is expected through the first half of the weekend. After
this, significant rainfall amounts are not expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   96  73  98  74  96 /   0   0  10  10  50
Panama City   87  76  87  77  88 /   0   0   0   0  20
Dothan        95  72  97  74  96 /   0   0  10  10  40
Albany        97  73  99  75  95 /   0   0  10  20  40
Valdosta      96  72  98  73  94 /   0   0  10  10  50
Cross City    94  73  94  74  93 /  10   0  10  10  50
Apalachicola  89  75  88  76  89 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Lahr
LONG TERM...Lahr
AVIATION...Moore
MARINE...Lahr
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Fieux




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities