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000
FXUS62 KTBW 300926
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
526 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.NEAR TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT
THIS TIME. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SHALLOW FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY/INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR AS SURFACE WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH NORTHWEST AS FAR SOUTH AS SARASOTA WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY. FURTHER SOUTH OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

FOR TODAY THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
REGION ALLOWING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. FURTHER NORTH SOME DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH DURING THE
DAY WITH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY EAST
ACROSS POLK COUNTY. THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND
THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. TONIGHT THE SHALLOW FRONT WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY WASH OUT OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST AND WIND DOWN...BUT
COULD STILL SEE A FEW POP UP SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THAT COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST COAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID
90S INLAND WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
NATURE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD.

.MID TERM (THURSDAY-FRIDAY)...
WE WILL GET THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AS THE
DRY AIR HANGS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SURGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM LEE COUNTY
NORTHEAST ACROSS HIGHLANDS COUNTY...BUT STILL THINKING MAINLY
SCATTERED STORMS.

I KEPT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW THURSDAY NIGHT...
BUT A BAND OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WE
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF...BUT THE
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BRING THEM BACK TO THE COAST.

BY FRIDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST
TO BE OVER 2 INCHES WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO KICK
OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WHICH FOCUSES AFTERNOON STORMS ON OUR SIDE OF THE STATE.
ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT ALLOWING A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
IN THE AREA PROVIDING EXTRA LIFT. TIMING IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN SO
KEEPING THE FORECAST SIMPLE FOR NOW WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOME A BIT DRIER WITH A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD..FMY AND RSW TODAY WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME
BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN BECOME RATHER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE
AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE EAST SETTING UP A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY LEADING TO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO OTHER FIRE
WEATHER PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  76  92  77 /  10   5  10  10
FMY  93  76  93  76 /  50  20  40  10
GIF  94  74  95  75 /  20  10  20  10
SRQ  92  74  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
BKV  94  67  94  69 /   5   0  10  10
SPG  92  79  90  80 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 300926
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
526 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.NEAR TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AT
THIS TIME. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SHALLOW FRONT HAS MOVED
THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY/INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR AS SURFACE WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED TO NORTH NORTHWEST AS FAR SOUTH AS SARASOTA WITH A
BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY. FURTHER SOUTH OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

FOR TODAY THE BOUNDARY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
REGION ALLOWING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. FURTHER NORTH SOME DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH DURING THE
DAY WITH DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST AND INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES FROM AROUND TAMPA BAY EAST
ACROSS POLK COUNTY. THIS DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTION AND
THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. TONIGHT THE SHALLOW FRONT WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT GENERALLY WASH OUT OVER THE REGION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST AND WIND DOWN...BUT
COULD STILL SEE A FEW POP UP SHOWERS OVERNIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THAT COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST COAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE LOWER TO MID
90S INLAND WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S
NATURE COAST TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST FROM ABOUT TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD.

.MID TERM (THURSDAY-FRIDAY)...
WE WILL GET THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AS THE
DRY AIR HANGS ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SURGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
BACK TO THE NORTH. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FROM LEE COUNTY
NORTHEAST ACROSS HIGHLANDS COUNTY...BUT STILL THINKING MAINLY
SCATTERED STORMS.

I KEPT RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW THURSDAY NIGHT...
BUT A BAND OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. WE
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF...BUT THE
STEERING FLOW WILL NOT BRING THEM BACK TO THE COAST.

BY FRIDAY THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST
TO BE OVER 2 INCHES WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO KICK
OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER NOON.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
THE WEEKEND LOOKS WET WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WHICH FOCUSES AFTERNOON STORMS ON OUR SIDE OF THE STATE.
ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ON MONDAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A BIT ALLOWING A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
IN THE AREA PROVIDING EXTRA LIFT. TIMING IS TOUGH TO PIN DOWN SO
KEEPING THE FORECAST SIMPLE FOR NOW WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BECOME A BIT DRIER WITH A RETURN TO MORE
TYPICAL SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND PRIMARILY EAST OF I-75.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD..FMY AND RSW TODAY WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME
BRIEF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THEN BECOME RATHER
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER THE
AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE EAST SETTING UP A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY LEADING TO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S ACROSS
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO OTHER FIRE
WEATHER PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  76  92  77 /  10   5  10  10
FMY  93  76  93  76 /  50  20  40  10
GIF  94  74  95  75 /  20  10  20  10
SRQ  92  74  90  77 /  20  10  10  10
BKV  94  67  94  69 /   5   0  10  10
SPG  92  79  90  80 /  10   5  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON




  [top]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 300910
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
510 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND MAINLY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND
SURROUNDING NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY
ACROSS ALL MARINE AND LAND BASED OBSERVING STATIONS WITH 5 TO 10
KNOTS OVER THE WATERS...AND 5 MPH WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST ISLANDS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AT THIS TIME...WHILE IT IS
STEADILY PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE KEYS. AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE FEATURE...PROXIMAL EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEP PERSISTENT
WESTERLIES... ROBUSTLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY INHIBITED
CONDITIONS THROUGH 800 MB DUE TO MIDLEVEL DRY AIR.

.FORECAST...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP WESTERLIES SHOULD
TRANSITION TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES BY MIDDAY...PROVIDING THE IDEAL
DIRECTION FOR REVERSE CUMULUS CLOUD LINES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. IN
THE NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT...A FEW MODERATE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS HAVE
SHOWN THEIR ABILITY TO FIRE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES EVEN WITHOUT
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT THAT THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY. EXPECT TO RE-EVALUATE THIS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND WITH A RETREATING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... EXPECT THAT LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER LAND AREAS. MARINE
LOCATIONS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A LIGHT
TRADE WIND PROFILE BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY DISINTEGRATES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK. THESE TRADES SHOULD GRADUALLY
BUILD PWAT VALUES BACK UP TO SEASONALLY HIGH VALUES BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE KEYS...EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
REQUIRED FOR THE TEXT PRODUCTS OR GRAPHICAL FORECASTS THIS UPDATE
CYCLE.


&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE TROPICAL TRADES BY THIS WEEKEND. SEAS IN THE NEAR
TERM SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BENIGN AS CORRESPONDS TO THE LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. WHILE BACKGROUND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD... EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM JUST
OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 6000 FEET WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1886...2.65 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 30TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 128
YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 300910
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
510 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND MAINLY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND
SURROUNDING NEARSHORE WATERS. WINDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY
ACROSS ALL MARINE AND LAND BASED OBSERVING STATIONS WITH 5 TO 10
KNOTS OVER THE WATERS...AND 5 MPH WIND SPEEDS OVER MOST ISLANDS.
A SURFACE TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDS
WESTWARD FROM WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AT THIS TIME...WHILE IT IS
STEADILY PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE KEYS. AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE FEATURE...PROXIMAL EVENING SOUNDINGS SHOWED DEEP PERSISTENT
WESTERLIES... ROBUSTLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES...BUT GENERALLY INHIBITED
CONDITIONS THROUGH 800 MB DUE TO MIDLEVEL DRY AIR.

.FORECAST...
AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP WESTERLIES SHOULD
TRANSITION TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES BY MIDDAY...PROVIDING THE IDEAL
DIRECTION FOR REVERSE CUMULUS CLOUD LINES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN. IN
THE NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT...A FEW MODERATE LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS HAVE
SHOWN THEIR ABILITY TO FIRE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES EVEN WITHOUT
DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT THAT THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT OVERALL SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN IN THE ISOLATED
CATEGORY. EXPECT TO RE-EVALUATE THIS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. WITH THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AND WITH A RETREATING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... EXPECT THAT LARGELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER LAND AREAS. MARINE
LOCATIONS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A LIGHT
TRADE WIND PROFILE BY FRIDAY...AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY DISINTEGRATES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK. THESE TRADES SHOULD GRADUALLY
BUILD PWAT VALUES BACK UP TO SEASONALLY HIGH VALUES BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE KEYS...EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING MECHANISM. VERY FEW CHANGES WERE
REQUIRED FOR THE TEXT PRODUCTS OR GRAPHICAL FORECASTS THIS UPDATE
CYCLE.


&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO
LIGHT TO MODERATE TROPICAL TRADES BY THIS WEEKEND. SEAS IN THE NEAR
TERM SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BENIGN AS CORRESPONDS TO THE LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. WHILE BACKGROUND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD... EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FROM JUST
OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 6000 FEET WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST AND
DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1886...2.65 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 30TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 128
YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






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000
FXUS62 KJAX 300842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR PERSISTS AT INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE (1012 MILLIBARS) LOCATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...CREATING A DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
OVER COASTAL GLYNN AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT...BUT ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z
RANGED FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE UPPER 70S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OUR CLIMATE SITES THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH INLAND PAST THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
TOWARDS SUNSET...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW
DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG OR EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THROUGH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MILLIBARS (6500 FEET) BRIEF IN DURATION.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND...WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE WILL FADE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS INLAND...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...RANGING
TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO AREA ON THURSDAY BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO ONLY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE. FRIDAY WILL SEE A MORE NORMAL COVERAGE PATTERN OF
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOW 70S EACH NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BECOME MORE
DEFINED ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SWATH OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN TO
COMMENCE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY ALONG WEST AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM 18Z-
23Z AND COULD IMPACT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CURRENTLY INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ONSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA
DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
AND POSSIBLE CAUTION CONDITIONS DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY AND WILL FILTER INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH 30 TO 35 PERCENT EXPECTED FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...AND MOISTURE LEVELS/ERC VALUES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL MOISTEN CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  68  92  73 /   0  10  20  30
SSI  87  76  87  78 /  20  10  30  40
JAX  91  71  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
SGJ  90  75  87  76 /  20  10  20  30
GNV  93  69  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
OCF  93  70  92  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET







000
FXUS62 KJAX 300842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR PERSISTS AT INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE (1012 MILLIBARS) LOCATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...CREATING A DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
OVER COASTAL GLYNN AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT...BUT ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z
RANGED FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE UPPER 70S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OUR CLIMATE SITES THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH INLAND PAST THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
TOWARDS SUNSET...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW
DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG OR EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THROUGH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MILLIBARS (6500 FEET) BRIEF IN DURATION.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND...WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE WILL FADE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS INLAND...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...RANGING
TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO AREA ON THURSDAY BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO ONLY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE. FRIDAY WILL SEE A MORE NORMAL COVERAGE PATTERN OF
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOW 70S EACH NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BECOME MORE
DEFINED ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SWATH OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN TO
COMMENCE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY ALONG WEST AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM 18Z-
23Z AND COULD IMPACT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CURRENTLY INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ONSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA
DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
AND POSSIBLE CAUTION CONDITIONS DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY AND WILL FILTER INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH 30 TO 35 PERCENT EXPECTED FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...AND MOISTURE LEVELS/ERC VALUES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL MOISTEN CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  68  92  73 /   0  10  20  30
SSI  87  76  87  78 /  20  10  30  40
JAX  91  71  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
SGJ  90  75  87  76 /  20  10  20  30
GNV  93  69  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
OCF  93  70  92  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET







000
FXUS62 KJAX 300842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR PERSISTS AT INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE (1012 MILLIBARS) LOCATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...CREATING A DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
OVER COASTAL GLYNN AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT...BUT ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z
RANGED FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE UPPER 70S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OUR CLIMATE SITES THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH INLAND PAST THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
TOWARDS SUNSET...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW
DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG OR EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THROUGH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MILLIBARS (6500 FEET) BRIEF IN DURATION.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND...WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE WILL FADE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS INLAND...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...RANGING
TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO AREA ON THURSDAY BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO ONLY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE. FRIDAY WILL SEE A MORE NORMAL COVERAGE PATTERN OF
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOW 70S EACH NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BECOME MORE
DEFINED ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SWATH OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN TO
COMMENCE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY ALONG WEST AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM 18Z-
23Z AND COULD IMPACT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CURRENTLY INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ONSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA
DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
AND POSSIBLE CAUTION CONDITIONS DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY AND WILL FILTER INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH 30 TO 35 PERCENT EXPECTED FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...AND MOISTURE LEVELS/ERC VALUES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL MOISTEN CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  68  92  73 /   0  10  20  30
SSI  87  76  87  78 /  20  10  30  40
JAX  91  71  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
SGJ  90  75  87  76 /  20  10  20  30
GNV  93  69  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
OCF  93  70  92  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET







000
FXUS62 KJAX 300842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
442 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR PERSISTS AT INLAND LOCATIONS TODAY...

.CURRENTLY...
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE (1012 MILLIBARS) LOCATED
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MOST
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALOFT...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE
FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...CREATING A DEEP WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY. WEAK
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPED A FEW SHOWERS
OVER COASTAL GLYNN AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
OVERNIGHT...BUT ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z
RANGED FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY TO THE UPPER 70S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...EXCEPT NEAR 70 IN
COASTAL LOCATIONS. THE WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PRODUCING ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO PRECLUDE ANY THREAT OF RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AT OUR CLIMATE SITES THIS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY...WITH A DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO
PUSH INLAND PAST THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT RECOVERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
LEVELS IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES
TOWARDS SUNSET...WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR AND ARW
DEPICT ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG OR EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR/ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY
CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THROUGH A SUBSTANTIAL INVERSION
BASED AROUND 800 MILLIBARS (6500 FEET) BRIEF IN DURATION.
OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF INSOLATION WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 90S INLAND...WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE KEEPING HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES. DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN WELL BELOW NORMAL HUMIDITY LEVELS.
ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE WILL FADE QUICKLY TOWARDS SUNSET. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN AS
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS INLAND...AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND...RANGING
TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MORE MOIST AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER INTO AREA ON THURSDAY BUT STILL REMAIN DRY ENOUGH TO ONLY
SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE. FRIDAY WILL SEE A MORE NORMAL COVERAGE PATTERN OF
CONVECTION AS MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO RISE AND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 90S EACH
AFTERNOON AND LOW 70S EACH NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BECOME MORE
DEFINED ON SATURDAY AS IT MOVES OFF SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SWATH OF THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITH WEAK SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. EXPECT A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN TO
COMMENCE WITH THE SUPPORT OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRAVELING
THROUGH GEORGIA AND THE ATLANTIC STATES WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY ALONG WEST AND EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THEN DIMINISHING SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM 18Z-
23Z AND COULD IMPACT SSI AND THE DUVAL COUNTY TERMINALS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO CURRENTLY INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL KEEP ONSHORE
WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA
DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRODUCING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
AND POSSIBLE CAUTION CONDITIONS DURING EVENING WIND SURGES. SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 3-5 FEET OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY AND WILL FILTER INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. EXPECT
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA...WITH 30 TO 35 PERCENT EXPECTED FOR
INLAND NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL. LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED...AND MOISTURE LEVELS/ERC VALUES WILL PRECLUDE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL MOISTEN CONDITIONS IN
THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  92  68  92  73 /   0  10  20  30
SSI  87  76  87  78 /  20  10  30  40
JAX  91  71  89  75 /  20  10  20  30
SGJ  90  75  87  76 /  20  10  20  30
GNV  93  69  91  72 /  10  10  20  20
OCF  93  70  92  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/GUILLET






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 300835
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...AN UNUSUAL JULY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A FRONTAL
TROUGH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOME DRIER AIR INTO OUR NORTHERN
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY. DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH (OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST) WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTN WITH MUCH REDUCED STORM CHANCES NORTH OF
ORLANDO. BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LOWER
DEWPOINT AIR WILL GET AS GFS MOS IS PULLING BACK A BIT. GIVEN THE
STRONG SFC HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE...HAVE INTRODUCED A LESS THAN 20 POP FOR SHOWERS
OVER VOLUSIA COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS (LOCAL WRF AND HRRR)
EVEN THOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT INDICATE ANY RAIN THERE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO THE SOUTH WHERE LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE MOIST BUT DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SOUTH OF ORLANDO. MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS AND GFS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WHICH COULD
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO WILL HOLD ONTO AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

THU-FRI...
THE CURRENT ANOMALOUS WX PATTERN WILL BREAK UP THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. A 100KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE MIDWEST WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF DEEP LYR TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...FEEDING INTO A SECOND JET
STREAK OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS THE COMBINED JET ENERGY
TRANSITIONS DOWNSTREAM...THE TROFFING PATTERN OVR THE ERN CONUS WILL
DAMPEN OUT...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO REBUILD
OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RETURNING AS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL
FL...DIURNAL CONVECTION DISTRIBUTION WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN
H100-H70 FLOW. REMNANT LOW LVL TROF OVER THE GOMEX ON THU WILL KEEP
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM BUILDING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE FL STRAITS...
RESULTING IN A WEAK S/SW FLOW BLO 10KTS. WHILE A SWRLY FLOW WOULD
FAVOR THE E FL COAST FOR CONVECTION...SUCH A WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
WILL MAKE IT QUITE DIFFICULT FOR THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO
MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. FURTHERMORE...LINGERING DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT TOTAL COVERAGE TO THE 20-30PCT RANGE.

BY FRI...WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL TROF WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT
OF PLAY BY THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDING NW AND A DEEP LYR RIDGE OVER THE
GOMEX/SRN PLAINS. DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THAT WILL ALLOW BOTH
EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO MAKE NEARLY EQUAL INLAND PROGRESS.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WELL...ALLOWING STORM COVERAGE TO RETURN TO
A MORE SEASONABLE 40-50PCT.

S/SWRLY FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL GENERATE ABV AVG
TEMPS WITH AFTN MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS IN THE M/U70S.

EXTENDED...
PATTERN LOOKS ABOUT PAR FOR CENTRAL FL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
MODELS MAINTAIN A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...BUT A DEEP
LYR CYCLONE OVER THE PAC NW WILL INTERCEPT MUCH OF THE NRN STREAM
JET ENERGY THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PREVENT THE TROF FROM GAINING
THE STRENGTH NECESSARY TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE AXIS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. BY MON...MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK ERLY
WAVE OVER THE TROPICS WILL HAVE WORKED FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT THE
LCL WX...EVEN IF INDIRECTLY. SCT AFTN/EVNG TSRAS WILL BE THE RULE
WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
13Z AS FRONTAL TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS THIS AFTN WILL BE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (VRB-SUA) AS SHOWN BY
VCTS WHICH MAY GET UPGRADED TO TEMPO GROUPS FOR ONE OR MORE SITES.
MORE ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH (MCO/DAB/SFB/LEE) AS
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...FRONTAL TROUGH SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN (VOLUSIA) WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FL THRU TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALLOW AN ONSHORE
(E-SE) FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TREASURE COAST AND PUSH OFFSHORE
WITH LOWER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH.

THU-SUN...ANOMALOUS TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO REBUILD OVER WRN
ATLC/ERN GOMEX. A LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ON THU...
BCMG GENTLE TO MODERATE FRI AND CONTG THRU WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS
ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT
OFFSHORE THRU SAT. SEAS BCMG 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE ON
SUN AS A LONG ERLY FETCH AROUND THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE PUSHES A
SMALL SWELL INTO THE E FL COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  91  77 /  20  10  30  20
MCO  94  74  95  77 /  20  10  20  10
MLB  90  75  91  78 /  30  20  30  20
VRB  90  73  90  77 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  94  75  95  75 /  10  10  20  10
SFB  94  75  95  77 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  94  76  95  77 /  20  10  20  10
FPR  90  73  90  77 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW








000
FXUS62 KMLB 300835
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
435 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...AN UNUSUAL JULY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A FRONTAL
TROUGH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOME DRIER AIR INTO OUR NORTHERN
SECTIONS...ESPECIALLY LAKE COUNTY. DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
SOUTH (OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST) WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
STORMS THIS AFTN WITH MUCH REDUCED STORM CHANCES NORTH OF
ORLANDO. BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION HOW FAR SOUTH THIS LOWER
DEWPOINT AIR WILL GET AS GFS MOS IS PULLING BACK A BIT. GIVEN THE
STRONG SFC HEATING THAT WILL OCCUR AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE...HAVE INTRODUCED A LESS THAN 20 POP FOR SHOWERS
OVER VOLUSIA COUNTY BASED ON MESOSCALE MODELS (LOCAL WRF AND HRRR)
EVEN THOUGH THE GFS DOES NOT INDICATE ANY RAIN THERE.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TO THE SOUTH WHERE LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN QUITE MOIST BUT DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS SOUTH OF ORLANDO. MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

TONIGHT...AXIS OF HIGH PRECIP WATER WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS AND GFS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WHICH COULD
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SO WILL HOLD ONTO AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

THU-FRI...
THE CURRENT ANOMALOUS WX PATTERN WILL BREAK UP THRU THE END OF THE
WEEK. A 100KT H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE MIDWEST WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF DEEP LYR TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...FEEDING INTO A SECOND JET
STREAK OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AS THE COMBINED JET ENERGY
TRANSITIONS DOWNSTREAM...THE TROFFING PATTERN OVR THE ERN CONUS WILL
DAMPEN OUT...WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO REBUILD
OVER THE FL PENINSULA.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS RETURNING AS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL
FL...DIURNAL CONVECTION DISTRIBUTION WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN
H100-H70 FLOW. REMNANT LOW LVL TROF OVER THE GOMEX ON THU WILL KEEP
THE RIDGE AXIS FROM BUILDING MUCH FURTHER N THAN THE FL STRAITS...
RESULTING IN A WEAK S/SW FLOW BLO 10KTS. WHILE A SWRLY FLOW WOULD
FAVOR THE E FL COAST FOR CONVECTION...SUCH A WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW
WILL MAKE IT QUITE DIFFICULT FOR THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO
MAKE MUCH INLAND PROGRESS. FURTHERMORE...LINGERING DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL LIMIT TOTAL COVERAGE TO THE 20-30PCT RANGE.

BY FRI...WHATEVER REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL TROF WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT
OF PLAY BY THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDING NW AND A DEEP LYR RIDGE OVER THE
GOMEX/SRN PLAINS. DEEP SRLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THAT WILL ALLOW BOTH
EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO MAKE NEARLY EQUAL INLAND PROGRESS.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS WELL...ALLOWING STORM COVERAGE TO RETURN TO
A MORE SEASONABLE 40-50PCT.

S/SWRLY FLOW THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL GENERATE ABV AVG
TEMPS WITH AFTN MAXES IN THE L/M90S...MINS IN THE M/U70S.

EXTENDED...
PATTERN LOOKS ABOUT PAR FOR CENTRAL FL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
MODELS MAINTAIN A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS...BUT A DEEP
LYR CYCLONE OVER THE PAC NW WILL INTERCEPT MUCH OF THE NRN STREAM
JET ENERGY THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL PREVENT THE TROF FROM GAINING
THE STRENGTH NECESSARY TO SUPPRESS THE RIDGE AXIS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. BY MON...MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK ERLY
WAVE OVER THE TROPICS WILL HAVE WORKED FAR ENOUGH WEST TO IMPACT THE
LCL WX...EVEN IF INDIRECTLY. SCT AFTN/EVNG TSRAS WILL BE THE RULE
WITH TEMPS NEAR AVG.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH
13Z AS FRONTAL TROUGH SETTLES SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS THIS AFTN WILL BE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (VRB-SUA) AS SHOWN BY
VCTS WHICH MAY GET UPGRADED TO TEMPO GROUPS FOR ONE OR MORE SITES.
MORE ISOLD COVERAGE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH (MCO/DAB/SFB/LEE) AS
SOME DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...FRONTAL TROUGH SAGGING INTO THE NORTHERN (VOLUSIA) WATERS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SETTLE ACROSS CENTRAL FL THRU TONIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW AND ALLOW AN ONSHORE
(E-SE) FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN NEAR THE COAST. SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TREASURE COAST AND PUSH OFFSHORE
WITH LOWER COVERAGE TO THE NORTH.

THU-SUN...ANOMALOUS TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH LATE WEEK...ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS TO REBUILD OVER WRN
ATLC/ERN GOMEX. A LIGHT TO GENTLE S/SE BREEZE WILL PREVAIL ON THU...
BCMG GENTLE TO MODERATE FRI AND CONTG THRU WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE AXIS
ENTRENCHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT
OFFSHORE THRU SAT. SEAS BCMG 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE ON
SUN AS A LONG ERLY FETCH AROUND THE BASE OF THE ATLC RIDGE PUSHES A
SMALL SWELL INTO THE E FL COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  91  77 /  20  10  30  20
MCO  94  74  95  77 /  20  10  20  10
MLB  90  75  91  78 /  30  20  30  20
VRB  90  73  90  77 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  94  75  95  75 /  10  10  20  10
SFB  94  75  95  77 /  20  10  20  10
ORL  94  76  95  77 /  20  10  20  10
FPR  90  73  90  77 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 300752
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...STORMY PATTERN THROUGH WEEK`S END...

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
YESTERDAY HAS COME TO A HALT AND NOW LIES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCALA AREA WITH DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 60S WITH THE
SULTRY MID-UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS IS ONE IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT FOR JULY WITH ATLANTA
AT 63F THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 50S IN THE GREATER D.C. AREA WITH
DULLES AT A CHILLY 52F DEGREES CURRENTLY...IN THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER! IF YOU LIKE A COOLER CHANGE, NO LUCK THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO MAX OUT NEAR 100F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.

THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...

THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
EASTERN GULF WITH TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCSH AT 06Z AND WITH A
PASSING SHOWER VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF COAST AROUND 10-12Z TIME FRAME WITH
VCTS ASSIGNED TO KAPF AT 12Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF THE CONVECTION STARTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL AND
KMIA EXPECTED TO HAVE A SSE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17Z WITH REMAINING
EAST COAST TERMINALS LIKELY HAVE LIGHT SSW WINDS. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA
PENINSULA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED
ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 17Z. /60

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  91  77 /  70  40  60  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  70  50  60  30
MIAMI            92  79  90  79 /  70  40  60  40
NAPLES           89  80  90  79 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTAE 300751
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Dry air behind a rare July front will preclude any shower or
thunderstorm development today. Expect afternoon highs near normal
today, around 90 degrees away from the coast. A flat but scattered
CU field will be possible along an east of a line from Albany to
Tallahassee.

&&

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

Late Wednesday, longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS will begin
to transition to zonal flow but will not last long as by late
Thursday, a developing shortwave begins to carve out another
longwave trough. For our area, this means at least one more dry day
on Thursday before moisture begins to increase with SW flow. The
global models, and our MOS guidance, advertise the best chances of
rain on Friday for northern portions of the forecast area in our SE
Alabama and SW Georgia. Went with a 20%-40% South to North PoP
gradient with the primary forcing expected to be along mesoscale
boundaries. The diurnal temperature swing will be large on Thursday
with dry air in place. Most locations will experience lows in the
mid to upper 60s away from the coast in the morning, and high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s in the late afternoon. Increasing
cloudiness NW of a line from Albany to Dothan will keep max temps
lower Friday, while other locations SW of this line will feel
temperatures similar to Thursday.

&&

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Thursday]...

VFR conditions under light winds and mostly clear skies will prevail
through the TAF.


&&

.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions will yield low seas through Friday. As
we move from Friday into the weekend, increasing southwesterly flow
could raise seas an additional foot over current levels, but these
will still be well away from any headline conditions.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although we`ll be unseasonably dry, relative humidities should
remain just above critical thresholds the next couple of days.
Moisture levels will gradually return to near normal by the end of
the week.


&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers area currently below action stage, and over the next
few days, any additional rainfall will not cause any concern at this
time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  66  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  10  30
Panama City   90  71  90  75  88 /   0  10   0  10  30
Dothan        89  64  93  70  89 /   0  10   0  10  40
Albany        91  66  93  71  90 /   0  10   0  20  40
Valdosta      96  67  96  70  93 /   0   0  10  10  30
Cross City    94  67  93  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  89  70  90  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GOULD/DOBBS
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GOULD/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GOULD/DOBBS






000
FXUS62 KTAE 300751
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
351 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Dry air behind a rare July front will preclude any shower or
thunderstorm development today. Expect afternoon highs near normal
today, around 90 degrees away from the coast. A flat but scattered
CU field will be possible along an east of a line from Albany to
Tallahassee.

&&

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

Late Wednesday, longwave troughing over the Eastern CONUS will begin
to transition to zonal flow but will not last long as by late
Thursday, a developing shortwave begins to carve out another
longwave trough. For our area, this means at least one more dry day
on Thursday before moisture begins to increase with SW flow. The
global models, and our MOS guidance, advertise the best chances of
rain on Friday for northern portions of the forecast area in our SE
Alabama and SW Georgia. Went with a 20%-40% South to North PoP
gradient with the primary forcing expected to be along mesoscale
boundaries. The diurnal temperature swing will be large on Thursday
with dry air in place. Most locations will experience lows in the
mid to upper 60s away from the coast in the morning, and high
temperatures in the low to mid 90s in the late afternoon. Increasing
cloudiness NW of a line from Albany to Dothan will keep max temps
lower Friday, while other locations SW of this line will feel
temperatures similar to Thursday.

&&

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Thursday]...

VFR conditions under light winds and mostly clear skies will prevail
through the TAF.


&&

.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions will yield low seas through Friday. As
we move from Friday into the weekend, increasing southwesterly flow
could raise seas an additional foot over current levels, but these
will still be well away from any headline conditions.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although we`ll be unseasonably dry, relative humidities should
remain just above critical thresholds the next couple of days.
Moisture levels will gradually return to near normal by the end of
the week.


&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers area currently below action stage, and over the next
few days, any additional rainfall will not cause any concern at this
time.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  66  94  71  92 /   0   0   0  10  30
Panama City   90  71  90  75  88 /   0  10   0  10  30
Dothan        89  64  93  70  89 /   0  10   0  10  40
Albany        91  66  93  71  90 /   0  10   0  20  40
Valdosta      96  67  96  70  93 /   0   0  10  10  30
Cross City    94  67  93  69  92 /   0   0  10  10  20
Apalachicola  89  70  90  73  88 /   0   0   0  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GOULD/DOBBS
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GOULD/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GOULD/DOBBS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300730
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...STORMY PATTERN THROUGH WEEK`S END...

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
YESTERDAY HAS COME TO A HALT AND NOW LIES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCALA AREA WITH DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 60S WITH THE
SULTRY MID-UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS IS ONE IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT FOR JULY WITH ATLANTA
AT 63F THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 50S IN THE GREATER D.C. AREA WITH
DULLES AT A CHILLY 52F DEGREES CURRENTLY...IN THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER! IF YOU LIKE A COOLER CHANGE, NO LUCK THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO MAX OUT NEAR 100F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.

THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
EASTERN GULF WITH TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCSH AT 06Z AND WITH A
PASSING SHOWER VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF COAST AROUND 10-12Z TIME FRAME WITH
VCTS ASSIGNED TO KAPF AT 12Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF THE CONVECTION STARTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL AND
KMIA EXPECTED TO HAVE A SSE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17Z WITH REMAINING
EAST COAST TERMINALS LIKELY HAVE LIGHT SSW WINDS. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA
PENINSULA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED
ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 17Z.

60


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  91  77 /  70  40  60  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  70  50  60  30
MIAMI            92  79  90  79 /  70  40  60  40
NAPLES           89  80  90  79 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300730
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

...STORMY PATTERN THROUGH WEEK`S END...

.DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT WHICH MOVED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
YESTERDAY HAS COME TO A HALT AND NOW LIES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
OCALA AREA WITH DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE 60S WITH THE
SULTRY MID-UPPER 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS IS ONE IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT FOR JULY WITH ATLANTA
AT 63F THIS MORNING AND INTO THE 50S IN THE GREATER D.C. AREA WITH
DULLES AT A CHILLY 52F DEGREES CURRENTLY...IN THE MIDDLE OF
SUMMER! IF YOU LIKE A COOLER CHANGE, NO LUCK THIS FAR SOUTH. HEAT
INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO MAX OUT NEAR 100F EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

THE HIGHEST MOISTURE AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT LIES NOW
ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH GPS MET DATA SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.9-2.1
INCH RANGE. STREAMLINES SHOW SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE TAKING PLACE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST/WATERS AND THIS IS WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED. HRRR SHOWS ACTIVITY BECOMING
NUMEROUS ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING...AND GIVEN RADAR
TRENDS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THIS IS LOOKING LIKELY. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
GONE WITH HIGH POPS. THE PRIMARY RISK WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING. CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST...THOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS
AND LACK OF A FORMIDABLE DRY LAYER SUGGEST THIS THREAT WILL BE
RATHER LOW.

THE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TOMORROW AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO S TO EVENTUALLY SE BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SHIFT THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND INTERIOR-
GULF COAST FRI AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THOUGH STILL AM EXPECTING
SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INVERTED TROUGH MOVING FROM SE TO NW ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ONLY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SO HIGH
POPS ARE REFLECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

NHC CONTINUES TO CLOSELY MONITOR A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND GIVES THIS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HR. THE 30.00Z RUNS
OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO OF THIS
POTENTIAL SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT GETS NORTH OF
THE GREATER ANTILLES AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS WHILE BEGINNING
RECURVATURE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS ISN`T SET IN STONE AND WE HAVE
PLENTY OF TIME TO MONITOR THIS DISTURBANCE`S PROGRESS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...LOW SEAS WILL CONTINUE AS WINDS REMAIN AT AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE SW
BUT WILL BE BACKING TO SE BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE INCREASING
INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE MAIN MARINE IMPACT WILL BE THE
EXPECTATION OF SCATTERED TO PERIODS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR THIS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
EASTERN GULF WITH TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCSH AT 06Z AND WITH A
PASSING SHOWER VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF COAST AROUND 10-12Z TIME FRAME WITH
VCTS ASSIGNED TO KAPF AT 12Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF THE CONVECTION STARTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL AND
KMIA EXPECTED TO HAVE A SSE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17Z WITH REMAINING
EAST COAST TERMINALS LIKELY HAVE LIGHT SSW WINDS. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA
PENINSULA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED
ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 17Z.

60


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  91  77 /  70  40  60  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  70  50  60  30
MIAMI            92  79  90  79 /  70  40  60  40
NAPLES           89  80  90  79 /  60  30  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300553
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
153 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...

THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
EASTERN GULF WITH TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCSH AT 06Z AND WITH A
PASSING SHOWER VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF COAST AROUND 10-12Z TIME FRAME WITH
VCTS ASSIGNED TO KAPF AT 12Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF THE CONVECTION STARTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL AND
KMIA EXPECTED TO HAVE A SSE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17Z WITH REMAINING
EAST COAST TERMINALS LIKELY HAVE LIGHT SSW WINDS. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA
PENINSULA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED
ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 17Z.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION WINDS
DOWN. HOWEVER, A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE FOR TOMORROW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHAT EARLIER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR DUE TO
THUNDERSTORM AND/OR HEAVY SHOWERS IMPACTING TAF SITES TOMORROW,
MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS WILL BE WIND AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO NW OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. H5 TEMPS NEVER COOL
DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT
OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  76  90  76 /  60  40  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  90  78 /  60  40  60  30
MIAMI            91  78  90  77 /  60  40  60  30
NAPLES           89  78  89  78 /  50  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300553
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
153 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...

THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE
EASTERN GULF WITH TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED VCSH AT 06Z AND WITH A
PASSING SHOWER VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION
ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA GULF COAST AROUND 10-12Z TIME FRAME WITH
VCTS ASSIGNED TO KAPF AT 12Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z WITH ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL AMEND AS
NECESSARY IF THE CONVECTION STARTS EARLIER THIS MORNING. FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON...TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL AND
KMIA EXPECTED TO HAVE A SSE SEA BREEZE AROUND 17Z WITH REMAINING
EAST COAST TERMINALS LIKELY HAVE LIGHT SSW WINDS. AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA
PENINSULA...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED
ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 17Z.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION WINDS
DOWN. HOWEVER, A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE FOR TOMORROW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHAT EARLIER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR DUE TO
THUNDERSTORM AND/OR HEAVY SHOWERS IMPACTING TAF SITES TOMORROW,
MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS WILL BE WIND AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO NW OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. H5 TEMPS NEVER COOL
DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT
OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  76  90  76 /  60  40  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  90  78 /  60  40  60  30
MIAMI            91  78  90  77 /  60  40  60  30
NAPLES           89  78  89  78 /  50  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KKEY 300228
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - THE TAIL END OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT BODIES OF WATERS. THIS IS
DRIVING A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AIR AND
SOME MID LEVEL SHEAR IS GIVING SHOWERS A DIFFICULT TIME AT SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES...EVEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE MOMENT...NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS PRESENT WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SWATH OF
MORE UNIFORM WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE JUST
NORTH OF OUR AREA CAN BE SEEN IN BOTH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...AND A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS FLORIDA
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECT TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
OUR NORTH SHOULD THEN BE STEERED MORE EASTWARD. IN ADDITION...DESPITE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DRIER AIR WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE
KEYS. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SLIGHT. THE LIGHT BUT MORE DEFINED FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST
ISLAND LOCATIONS UP IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL ONLY REMOVE TRANSITIONAL WORDING IN AN
EVENING ZONE UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVER ALL...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SUBTLE WIND SURGE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY EASE BACK IN LINE WITH REMAINING KEYS WATERS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WILL BE MADE IN THE
EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR ENCOUNTER OR TWO...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
MOSTLY WEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
ISLAND AIRPORTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 300228
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - THE TAIL END OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT BODIES OF WATERS. THIS IS
DRIVING A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DRY AIR AND
SOME MID LEVEL SHEAR IS GIVING SHOWERS A DIFFICULT TIME AT SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES...EVEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE MOMENT...NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS PRESENT WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...A SWATH OF
MORE UNIFORM WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE JUST
NORTH OF OUR AREA CAN BE SEEN IN BOTH PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY...AND A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS FLORIDA
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECT TO BECOME
MORE WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
OUR NORTH SHOULD THEN BE STEERED MORE EASTWARD. IN ADDITION...DESPITE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...DRIER AIR WILL HOLD IN PLACE ACROSS THE
KEYS. AS A RESULT...RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SLIGHT. THE LIGHT BUT MORE DEFINED FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST
ISLAND LOCATIONS UP IN THE LOWER 80S...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. WILL ONLY REMOVE TRANSITIONAL WORDING IN AN
EVENING ZONE UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
OVER ALL...LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT. THE SUBTLE WIND SURGE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY EASE BACK IN LINE WITH REMAINING KEYS WATERS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WILL BE MADE IN THE
EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/30TH...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR ENCOUNTER OR TWO...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
MOSTLY WEST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
ISLAND AIRPORTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KTBW 300122
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
922 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A ROBUST UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA TROUGHED DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACHED TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT FROM NORTHERN FL TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE FL STRAITS...BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA...TO THE SOUTHERN
GULF WATERS.

THE UPPER LOW SETTLES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE WESTERN SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHOWER/STORM TIMING AND COVERAGE TO
BOTH REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE SHIFT IN THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE. FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY. WESTERLY WINDS...BUT
BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST AFTER THE BOUNDARY MOVES BY...WILL CONTINUE
BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENT AND HAVE ALLOWED THE COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE TO
EXPIRE AT 800 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
30/00Z-31/00Z...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN PREVAILING VFR WITH ISOLD
TSRA TIL 02Z IN THE SOUTH. WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH HAVE
KEPT TPA/LAL/PIE CONVECTION FREE UNTIL 18Z. TERMINALS FROM SRQ SOUTH
MAY SEE ISOLD SHRA DRIFTING ONSHORE JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH VCTS
BEGINNING LATE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR TO LCL IFR WITH GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIE DOWN A BIT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  76  92 /  20  20   0  20
FMY  77  92  77  93 /  20  60  20  30
GIF  76  94  74  95 /  30  20  10  30
SRQ  77  92  76  90 /  20  40  10  20
BKV  70  93  67  93 /  10  10  10  20
SPG  81  91  78  90 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD










000
FXUS62 KTBW 300122
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
922 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A ROBUST UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY CANADA TROUGHED DOWN
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND REACHED TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT FROM NORTHERN FL TO THE WESTERN
GULF COAST. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THE FL STRAITS...BETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA...TO THE SOUTHERN
GULF WATERS.

THE UPPER LOW SETTLES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AS THE WESTERN SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD WITH THE BOUNDARY SLIDING ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK. THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE IS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND WILL BE DROPPING DOWN INTO THE
SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTHWARD. HAVE ADJUSTED THE SHOWER/STORM TIMING AND COVERAGE TO
BOTH REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE SHIFT IN THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE. FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY. WESTERLY WINDS...BUT
BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST AFTER THE BOUNDARY MOVES BY...WILL CONTINUE
BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENT AND HAVE ALLOWED THE COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE TO
EXPIRE AT 800 PM.

&&

.AVIATION...
30/00Z-31/00Z...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN PREVAILING VFR WITH ISOLD
TSRA TIL 02Z IN THE SOUTH. WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH HAVE
KEPT TPA/LAL/PIE CONVECTION FREE UNTIL 18Z. TERMINALS FROM SRQ SOUTH
MAY SEE ISOLD SHRA DRIFTING ONSHORE JUST AFTER SUNRISE WITH VCTS
BEGINNING LATE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR TO LCL IFR WITH GUSTY WINDS
PSBL...MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MOVED SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DIE DOWN A BIT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  76  92 /  20  20   0  20
FMY  77  92  77  93 /  20  60  20  30
GIF  76  94  74  95 /  30  20  10  30
SRQ  77  92  76  90 /  20  40  10  20
BKV  70  93  67  93 /  10  10  10  20
SPG  81  91  78  90 /  20  20   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD











000
FXUS62 KMLB 300122
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
922 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ANOMALOUS OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE CLOSER
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SPARKED A
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS EVENING WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS DUE TO DRIER AIR INFILTRATING THE MID LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. MELBOURNE RADAR SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RETURNS NOW WITH THE LAST OF THE ANVIL DEBRIS RAIN DISSIPATING AS IT
MOVES SOUTH.

AN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE GRADIENT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF OF THE STATE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATED PWATS RANGING FROM 2.2
INCHES AT CAPE CANAVERAL TO 1.0 INCH OVER TALLAHASSEE. EXPECT SOME
OF THAT DRIER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO BE NIL AS MUCH OF THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERING LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA.

LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW...NEARLY CALM FOR SOME PLACES...WILL REMAIN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ANOTHER MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH DAYBREAK THURS. FRONTAL TROUGH NEARBY MAY
PROMOTE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT..HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED TSRA
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTER NOON...PRIMARY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN TERMINALS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST (KVRB-KFPR-KSUA).

&&

.MARINE...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK AND A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...MAINLY
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  75  92 /  20  10  10  20
MCO  74  95  75  95 /  20  20  20  20
MLB  74  91  75  92 /  20  20  20  30
VRB  73  91  74  91 /  20  30  20  30
LEE  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  20
SFB  76  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  20
ORL  76  95  78  95 /  20  10  20  20
FPR  74  90  73  91 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION/FORECAST UPDATE...ULRICH
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER...PENDERGRAST





000
FXUS62 KTAE 300104
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
904 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Expect Noticeably Drier and Cooler Conditions Overnight...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The large scale pattern is highly amplified marked by ridge over
much of Wrn 2/3rd of Conus...and trough digging over Ern third into
Wrn Atlc with axis along Ern seaboard. At surface, cool front
across Nrn most Gulf waters extending Wwd to TX Coast. Locally
this translates to NNW flow surface to aloft and in wake of front
noticeably drier and cooler airmass with dew points running 10-15
degrees drier than same time yesterday. Dry air mixing down has
dropped mid evening dew points at or sightly below 60 degrees
especially over GA/AL counties.

Light winds and dry air will favor clear skies overnight and lead to
record or near record low temperatures at some area sites. Expect
lows from the low 60s Nrn most areas to mid 60s elsewhere, except
near 70 at the coast. The following are forecast and record lows for
July 30th. Please note that except for Tallahassee and Apalachicola,
all stations have at least one missing year of data so its possible
these values are not the most accurate.


   SITE              Forecast Low       Record Low
TALLAHASSEE              66                 67 1927
VALDOSTA                 63                 66 1954
CROSS CITY               66                 65 1949
APALACHICOLA             70                 67 1984

For example, if the low at Tallahassee drops to our forecast of 66
degrees, it would be a new record low by one degree.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...No precipitation is expected during the TAF
period with limited cloud cover. VFR conditions will prevail with
light winds.

&&

.Prev Discussion [233 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A few more dry days to finish off an unusually dry July for the
region. The cold front that pushed through this morning will settle
well to our south on Wednesday before slowly lifting north through
Thursday night. Although the max temps will still be at or above
seasonal levels, afternoon dew points in the 50s to around 60 will
make it feel much more bearable. The most notable change will be the
cooler nighttime temps, especially Wednesday night with lows in the
mid 60s most inland areas. Thursday night`s min temps will generally
be in the upper 60s to around 70.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions with light winds and low seas return
to the local waters at least through the remainder of the week.


.Fire Weather...

RH values will likely be near locally critical levels Wed afternoon.
However, other factors, like ERC and KBDI, are not expected to reach
Red Flag levels at this time.


.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  93  65  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   71  89  72  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        63  89  65  93  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  91  66  94  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      63  94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    66  93  67  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  70  90  72  89  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 300104
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
904 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Expect Noticeably Drier and Cooler Conditions Overnight...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The large scale pattern is highly amplified marked by ridge over
much of Wrn 2/3rd of Conus...and trough digging over Ern third into
Wrn Atlc with axis along Ern seaboard. At surface, cool front
across Nrn most Gulf waters extending Wwd to TX Coast. Locally
this translates to NNW flow surface to aloft and in wake of front
noticeably drier and cooler airmass with dew points running 10-15
degrees drier than same time yesterday. Dry air mixing down has
dropped mid evening dew points at or sightly below 60 degrees
especially over GA/AL counties.

Light winds and dry air will favor clear skies overnight and lead to
record or near record low temperatures at some area sites. Expect
lows from the low 60s Nrn most areas to mid 60s elsewhere, except
near 70 at the coast. The following are forecast and record lows for
July 30th. Please note that except for Tallahassee and Apalachicola,
all stations have at least one missing year of data so its possible
these values are not the most accurate.


   SITE              Forecast Low       Record Low
TALLAHASSEE              66                 67 1927
VALDOSTA                 63                 66 1954
CROSS CITY               66                 65 1949
APALACHICOLA             70                 67 1984

For example, if the low at Tallahassee drops to our forecast of 66
degrees, it would be a new record low by one degree.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...No precipitation is expected during the TAF
period with limited cloud cover. VFR conditions will prevail with
light winds.

&&

.Prev Discussion [233 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A few more dry days to finish off an unusually dry July for the
region. The cold front that pushed through this morning will settle
well to our south on Wednesday before slowly lifting north through
Thursday night. Although the max temps will still be at or above
seasonal levels, afternoon dew points in the 50s to around 60 will
make it feel much more bearable. The most notable change will be the
cooler nighttime temps, especially Wednesday night with lows in the
mid 60s most inland areas. Thursday night`s min temps will generally
be in the upper 60s to around 70.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions with light winds and low seas return
to the local waters at least through the remainder of the week.


.Fire Weather...

RH values will likely be near locally critical levels Wed afternoon.
However, other factors, like ERC and KBDI, are not expected to reach
Red Flag levels at this time.


.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  93  65  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   71  89  72  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        63  89  65  93  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  91  66  94  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      63  94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    66  93  67  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  70  90  72  89  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KJAX 300038
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LAST CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AN INCREDIBLY DRY PATTERN
FOR JULY IN THE DEEP SOUTH. MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT SHALLOW GROUND FOG-
MIST INLAND TOWARD DAWN. ONLY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW WOULD
BE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT. A FEW OF OUR RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR
JULY 30TH MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KJAX. FOR
REFERENCE HERE THEY ARE...

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL FIELDS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  92  75  87  75 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  93  68  90  73 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  94  67  91  70 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  94  69  92  71 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/CORDERO/MCALLISTER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 300038
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LAST CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AN INCREDIBLY DRY PATTERN
FOR JULY IN THE DEEP SOUTH. MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT SHALLOW GROUND FOG-
MIST INLAND TOWARD DAWN. ONLY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW WOULD
BE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT. A FEW OF OUR RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR
JULY 30TH MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KJAX. FOR
REFERENCE HERE THEY ARE...

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL FIELDS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  92  75  87  75 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  93  68  90  73 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  94  67  91  70 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  94  69  92  71 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/CORDERO/MCALLISTER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 300038
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LAST CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AN INCREDIBLY DRY PATTERN
FOR JULY IN THE DEEP SOUTH. MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT SHALLOW GROUND FOG-
MIST INLAND TOWARD DAWN. ONLY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW WOULD
BE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT. A FEW OF OUR RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR
JULY 30TH MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KJAX. FOR
REFERENCE HERE THEY ARE...

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL FIELDS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  92  75  87  75 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  93  68  90  73 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  94  67  91  70 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  94  69  92  71 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/CORDERO/MCALLISTER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 300038
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LAST CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AN INCREDIBLY DRY PATTERN
FOR JULY IN THE DEEP SOUTH. MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT SHALLOW GROUND FOG-
MIST INLAND TOWARD DAWN. ONLY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW WOULD
BE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT. A FEW OF OUR RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR
JULY 30TH MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KJAX. FOR
REFERENCE HERE THEY ARE...

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL FIELDS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  92  75  87  75 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  93  68  90  73 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  94  67  91  70 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  94  69  92  71 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/CORDERO/MCALLISTER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 300038
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
838 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
LAST CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRYING
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. AN INCREDIBLY DRY PATTERN
FOR JULY IN THE DEEP SOUTH. MIGHT SEE SOME LIGHT SHALLOW GROUND FOG-
MIST INLAND TOWARD DAWN. ONLY CHANCE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW WOULD
BE WITH ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP ALONG
THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT. A FEW OF OUR RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR
JULY 30TH MAY BE IN JEOPARDY TOMORROW MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KJAX. FOR
REFERENCE HERE THEY ARE...

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR AT ALL FIELDS WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 08Z.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT
AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  93  71 /   0   0  10  10
SSI  92  75  87  75 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  93  68  90  73 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
GNV  94  67  91  70 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  94  69  92  71 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/CORDERO/MCALLISTER






000
FXUS62 KTBW 300001
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
30/00Z-31/00Z...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN PREVAILING VFR WITH ISOLD
TSRA TIL 02Z IN THE SOUTH. WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE SHIFTING SOUTH
HAVE KEPT TPA/LAL/PIE CONVECTION FREE UNTIL 18Z. TERMINALS FROM
SRQ SOUTH MAY SEE ISOLD SHRA DRIFTING ONSHORE JUST AFTER SUNRISE
WITH VCTS BEGINNING LATE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR TO LCL IFR WITH GUSTY
WINDS PSBL...MAINLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

..FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
A FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY DIGGING
THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MITIGATES CONCERNS ABOUT HAIL...WITH
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS...AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE LARGEST
HAZARDS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS CHALLENGING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE QUESTIONABLE HEALTH
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM INFLUENCING GREATLY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT IS OF INTEREST.
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE
INCREASED MOISTURE...WESTERLY FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVERNIGHT. SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE WAS
MAINLY BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING IN THE SOLUTION...PREFERRED A
MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS MAV...12Z NAM MET...AND
00Z ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. PREFERRED A MOIST SOLUTION FOR THE POPS
FORECAST BASED OFF LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.

MID TERM (WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY)...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL NOT BE ANY COOLER DURING THE DAY...
BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUR RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS...BUT
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WE MAY SEE NO SHOWERS AT ALL OVER THE
NATURE COAST. WE WILL SEE A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE BEGINNING
THURSDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE NATURE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE STATE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES... BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING US INTO EASTERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR SIDE OF THE STATE...POTENTIALLY NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH CONVERGING SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
TAKING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL PUTS MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF I-75...SO MY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING IS A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. BOTH MODELS
RESPOND BY INDICATING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM RATHER THAN OUR TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE AFTERNOON STORMS DUE TO HEATING/SEA BREEZES...SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.

MARINE... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN
DECREASE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING OFF
SHORE. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NATURE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN LEVY COUNTY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
MINIMAL...AS SURFACE MOISTURE RETURNS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE CONCERN THRESHOLDS TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  76  92 /  30  20   0  20
FMY  77  92  77  93 /  50  60  20  30
GIF  76  94  74  95 /  30  20  10  30
SRQ  77  92  76  90 /  50  40  10  20
BKV  70  93  67  93 /  20  10  10  20
SPG  81  91  78  90 /  40  20   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/RUDE
PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...63/JILLSON
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL








000
FXUS62 KMFL 292337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION WINDS
DOWN. HOWEVER, A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE FOR TOMORROW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHAT EARLIER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR DUE TO
THUNDERSTORM AND/OR HEAVY SHOWERS IMPACTING TAF SITES TOMORROW,
MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS WILL BE WIND AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO NW OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. H5 TEMPS NEVER COOL
DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT
OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  91  76  90 /  30  60  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
MIAMI            79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
NAPLES           78  89  78  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 292337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION WINDS
DOWN. HOWEVER, A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE FOR TOMORROW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHAT EARLIER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR DUE TO
THUNDERSTORM AND/OR HEAVY SHOWERS IMPACTING TAF SITES TOMORROW,
MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS WILL BE WIND AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO NW OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. H5 TEMPS NEVER COOL
DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT
OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  91  76  90 /  30  60  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
MIAMI            79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
NAPLES           78  89  78  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 292337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION WINDS
DOWN. HOWEVER, A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE FOR TOMORROW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHAT EARLIER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR DUE TO
THUNDERSTORM AND/OR HEAVY SHOWERS IMPACTING TAF SITES TOMORROW,
MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS WILL BE WIND AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO NW OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. H5 TEMPS NEVER COOL
DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT
OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  91  76  90 /  30  60  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
MIAMI            79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
NAPLES           78  89  78  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 292337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
737 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION WINDS
DOWN. HOWEVER, A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MOISTURE FOR TOMORROW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHAT EARLIER THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF POSSIBLE BRIEF IFR DUE TO
THUNDERSTORM AND/OR HEAVY SHOWERS IMPACTING TAF SITES TOMORROW,
MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS WILL BE WIND AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO NW OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. H5 TEMPS NEVER COOL
DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT
OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  91  76  90 /  30  60  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
MIAMI            79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
NAPLES           78  89  78  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KTBW 292000
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
A FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY DIGGING
THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MITIGATES CONCERNS ABOUT HAIL...WITH
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS...AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE LARGEST
HAZARDS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS CHALLENGING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE QUESTIONABLE HEALTH
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM INFLUENCING GREATLY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT IS OF INTEREST.
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE
INCREASED MOISTURE...WESTERLY FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVERNIGHT. SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE WAS
MAINLY BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING IN THE SOLUTION...PREFERRED A
MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS MAV...12Z NAM MET...AND
00Z ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. PREFERRED A MOIST SOLUTION FOR THE POPS
FORECAST BASED OFF LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.

.MID TERM (WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY)...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL NOT BE ANY COOLER DURING THE DAY...
BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUR RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS...BUT
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WE MAY SEE NO SHOWERS AT ALL OVER THE
NATURE COAST. WE WILL SEE A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE BEGINNING
THURSDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE NATURE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE STATE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES... BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING US INTO EASTERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR SIDE OF THE STATE...POTENTIALLY NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH CONVERGING SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
TAKING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL PUTS MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF I-75...SO MY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING IS A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. BOTH MODELS
RESPOND BY INDICATING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM RATHER THAN OUR TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE AFTERNOON STORMS DUE TO HEATING/SEA BREEZES...SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRIEF IFR/LIFR AND GUSTY VARIABILITY WITH HEAVY RAIN
STORMS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY REGION
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING CONVECTION AROUND THE TAMPA BAY TERMINALS.
SW FLORIDA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OVERNIGHT COASTAL
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN DECREASE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING OFF SHORE.
THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NATURE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN LEVY COUNTY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
MINIMAL...AS SURFACE MOISTURE RETURNS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE CONCERN THRESHOLDS TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  76  92 /  30  20   0  20
FMY  77  92  77  93 /  50  60  20  30
GIF  76  94  74  95 /  30  20  10  30
SRQ  77  92  76  90 /  50  40  10  20
BKV  70  93  67  93 /  20  10  10  20
SPG  81  91  79  90 /  40  20   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...63/JILLSON
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 292000
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
A FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY DIGGING
THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MITIGATES CONCERNS ABOUT HAIL...WITH
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS...AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE LARGEST
HAZARDS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS CHALLENGING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE QUESTIONABLE HEALTH
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM INFLUENCING GREATLY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT IS OF INTEREST.
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE
INCREASED MOISTURE...WESTERLY FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVERNIGHT. SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE WAS
MAINLY BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING IN THE SOLUTION...PREFERRED A
MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS MAV...12Z NAM MET...AND
00Z ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. PREFERRED A MOIST SOLUTION FOR THE POPS
FORECAST BASED OFF LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.

.MID TERM (WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY)...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL NOT BE ANY COOLER DURING THE DAY...
BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUR RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS...BUT
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WE MAY SEE NO SHOWERS AT ALL OVER THE
NATURE COAST. WE WILL SEE A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE BEGINNING
THURSDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE NATURE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE STATE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES... BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING US INTO EASTERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR SIDE OF THE STATE...POTENTIALLY NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH CONVERGING SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
TAKING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL PUTS MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF I-75...SO MY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING IS A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. BOTH MODELS
RESPOND BY INDICATING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM RATHER THAN OUR TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE AFTERNOON STORMS DUE TO HEATING/SEA BREEZES...SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRIEF IFR/LIFR AND GUSTY VARIABILITY WITH HEAVY RAIN
STORMS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY REGION
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING CONVECTION AROUND THE TAMPA BAY TERMINALS.
SW FLORIDA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OVERNIGHT COASTAL
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN DECREASE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING OFF SHORE.
THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NATURE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN LEVY COUNTY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
MINIMAL...AS SURFACE MOISTURE RETURNS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE CONCERN THRESHOLDS TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  76  92 /  30  20   0  20
FMY  77  92  77  93 /  50  60  20  30
GIF  76  94  74  95 /  30  20  10  30
SRQ  77  92  76  90 /  50  40  10  20
BKV  70  93  67  93 /  20  10  10  20
SPG  81  91  79  90 /  40  20   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...63/JILLSON
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 292000
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
A FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY DIGGING
THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MITIGATES CONCERNS ABOUT HAIL...WITH
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS...AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE LARGEST
HAZARDS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS CHALLENGING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE QUESTIONABLE HEALTH
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM INFLUENCING GREATLY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT IS OF INTEREST.
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE
INCREASED MOISTURE...WESTERLY FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVERNIGHT. SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE WAS
MAINLY BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING IN THE SOLUTION...PREFERRED A
MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS MAV...12Z NAM MET...AND
00Z ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. PREFERRED A MOIST SOLUTION FOR THE POPS
FORECAST BASED OFF LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.

.MID TERM (WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY)...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL NOT BE ANY COOLER DURING THE DAY...
BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUR RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS...BUT
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WE MAY SEE NO SHOWERS AT ALL OVER THE
NATURE COAST. WE WILL SEE A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE BEGINNING
THURSDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE NATURE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE STATE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES... BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING US INTO EASTERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR SIDE OF THE STATE...POTENTIALLY NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH CONVERGING SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
TAKING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL PUTS MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF I-75...SO MY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING IS A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. BOTH MODELS
RESPOND BY INDICATING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM RATHER THAN OUR TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE AFTERNOON STORMS DUE TO HEATING/SEA BREEZES...SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRIEF IFR/LIFR AND GUSTY VARIABILITY WITH HEAVY RAIN
STORMS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY REGION
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING CONVECTION AROUND THE TAMPA BAY TERMINALS.
SW FLORIDA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OVERNIGHT COASTAL
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN DECREASE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING OFF SHORE.
THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NATURE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN LEVY COUNTY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
MINIMAL...AS SURFACE MOISTURE RETURNS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE CONCERN THRESHOLDS TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  76  92 /  30  20   0  20
FMY  77  92  77  93 /  50  60  20  30
GIF  76  94  74  95 /  30  20  10  30
SRQ  77  92  76  90 /  50  40  10  20
BKV  70  93  67  93 /  20  10  10  20
SPG  81  91  79  90 /  40  20   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...63/JILLSON
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KTBW 292000
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
400 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION OVERNIGHT...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
A FRONT IS APPROACHING THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY DIGGING
THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UNITED STATES. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF TAMPA
BAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MITIGATES CONCERNS ABOUT HAIL...WITH
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS...AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE LARGEST
HAZARDS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. FORECASTING PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE IS CHALLENGING OVERNIGHT...WITH THE QUESTIONABLE HEALTH
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM INFLUENCING GREATLY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL VARY DEPENDING ON WHICH SIDE OF THE FRONT IS OF INTEREST.
NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE
INCREASED MOISTURE...WESTERLY FLOW...AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S OVERNIGHT. SPREAD BETWEEN GUIDANCE WAS
MAINLY BASED ON THE FRONTAL TIMING IN THE SOLUTION...PREFERRED A
MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS MAV...12Z NAM MET...AND
00Z ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. PREFERRED A MOIST SOLUTION FOR THE POPS
FORECAST BASED OFF LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.

.MID TERM (WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY)...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL NOT BE ANY COOLER DURING THE DAY...
BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUR RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS...BUT
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WE MAY SEE NO SHOWERS AT ALL OVER THE
NATURE COAST. WE WILL SEE A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE BEGINNING
THURSDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE NATURE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE STATE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES... BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING US INTO EASTERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR SIDE OF THE STATE...POTENTIALLY NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH CONVERGING SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
TAKING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL PUTS MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF I-75...SO MY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING IS A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. BOTH MODELS
RESPOND BY INDICATING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM RATHER THAN OUR TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE AFTERNOON STORMS DUE TO HEATING/SEA BREEZES...SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BRIEF IFR/LIFR AND GUSTY VARIABILITY WITH HEAVY RAIN
STORMS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY REGION
TONIGHT...DIMINISHING CONVECTION AROUND THE TAMPA BAY TERMINALS.
SW FLORIDA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE OVERNIGHT COASTAL
SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN DECREASE
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING OFF SHORE.
THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE
VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NATURE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES MAY FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN LEVY COUNTY. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE
MINIMAL...AS SURFACE MOISTURE RETURNS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE CONCERN THRESHOLDS TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  78  92  76  92 /  30  20   0  20
FMY  77  92  77  93 /  50  60  20  30
GIF  76  94  74  95 /  30  20  10  30
SRQ  77  92  76  90 /  50  40  10  20
BKV  70  93  67  93 /  20  10  10  20
SPG  81  91  79  90 /  40  20   0  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...02/GARCIA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...63/JILLSON
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KMLB 291929
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS
WILL STEADILY PUSH PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND SOUTHWARD WITH BACK
EDGE OF DRYING GETTING INTO OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.
HAVE HELD ONTO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
SINCE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF FRONTAL TROUGH.
ALSO...DAYTIME CONVECTION MOVED ACROSS SO FAST AND THERE WILL BE
POCKETS OF LINGERING INSTABILITY.

WED-THU (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER ENTIRE EASTERN U.S. EVEN AS AN OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMARKABLY REACHES THE S THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. FRONT
WEAKENS AND ERODES BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED STORMS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH FOR TREASURE COAST AND
VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ZONES NORTH OF THIS AREA WILL REALIZE
RARE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS FOR JULY AND REDUCED SUMMERTIME RAIN
CHANCES. IN FACT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER
DRYING NORTH OF ORLANDO/CANAVERAL WILL CURB POPS...AND TO LEVELS
TOO LOW TO MENTION GENERALLY NORTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL.
FOR THU...SURFACE WIND FIELDS SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE BUT WITH
AN ONSHORE AFTERNOON PUSH. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL GATHERED
OVER S FL...BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CHANCES STILL BELOW NORMAL THU...BETTER TOWARD TREASURE
COAST. RATHER WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN LOW/MID 90S EACH DAY.

FRI-MON (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BEGINS TO DAMPEN SUN INTO MON. SOMEWHAT
CONFUSED SFC PRESSURE FIELD FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AS TRACE MARKERS OF
OLD/DIFFUSE FRONT LINGER EVIDENT BY SUBTLE TROUGHING AND NARROW
BANDED MOISTURE ALL LIFTING NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERLIES OPEN UP AND
RE- ESTABLISH FOR THE PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 90S...BUT
NOT QUITE AS WARM ONCE SE FLOW BECOMES PREVALENT FOR THE WEEKEND.
POPS NEAR NORMAL WITH EMBEDDED SEA BREEZES WORKING INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO EVENING THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS YET.
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS ON WED SHOULD BE KVRB-KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN AND A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRYING WORKS SOUTHWARD.

WED-FRI (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER INLET FOR WED WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
NORTHWARD...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND RELAXING WINDS NORTH.
NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THU
ALLOWING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO LOCAL WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
IMPROVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
FRI. SEAS 2-3 FEET...BUT 1 TO 2 FEET NEARSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  75  92 /  20  10  10  20
MCO  74  95  75  95 /  20  20  20  20
MLB  74  91  75  92 /  30  20  20  30
VRB  73  91  74  91 /  30  30  20  30
LEE  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  20
SFB  76  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  20
ORL  76  95  78  95 /  20  10  20  20
FPR  74  90  73  91 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291929
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS
WILL STEADILY PUSH PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND SOUTHWARD WITH BACK
EDGE OF DRYING GETTING INTO OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.
HAVE HELD ONTO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
SINCE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF FRONTAL TROUGH.
ALSO...DAYTIME CONVECTION MOVED ACROSS SO FAST AND THERE WILL BE
POCKETS OF LINGERING INSTABILITY.

WED-THU (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER ENTIRE EASTERN U.S. EVEN AS AN OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMARKABLY REACHES THE S THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. FRONT
WEAKENS AND ERODES BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED STORMS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH FOR TREASURE COAST AND
VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ZONES NORTH OF THIS AREA WILL REALIZE
RARE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS FOR JULY AND REDUCED SUMMERTIME RAIN
CHANCES. IN FACT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER
DRYING NORTH OF ORLANDO/CANAVERAL WILL CURB POPS...AND TO LEVELS
TOO LOW TO MENTION GENERALLY NORTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL.
FOR THU...SURFACE WIND FIELDS SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE BUT WITH
AN ONSHORE AFTERNOON PUSH. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL GATHERED
OVER S FL...BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CHANCES STILL BELOW NORMAL THU...BETTER TOWARD TREASURE
COAST. RATHER WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN LOW/MID 90S EACH DAY.

FRI-MON (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BEGINS TO DAMPEN SUN INTO MON. SOMEWHAT
CONFUSED SFC PRESSURE FIELD FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AS TRACE MARKERS OF
OLD/DIFFUSE FRONT LINGER EVIDENT BY SUBTLE TROUGHING AND NARROW
BANDED MOISTURE ALL LIFTING NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERLIES OPEN UP AND
RE- ESTABLISH FOR THE PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 90S...BUT
NOT QUITE AS WARM ONCE SE FLOW BECOMES PREVALENT FOR THE WEEKEND.
POPS NEAR NORMAL WITH EMBEDDED SEA BREEZES WORKING INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO EVENING THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS YET.
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS ON WED SHOULD BE KVRB-KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN AND A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRYING WORKS SOUTHWARD.

WED-FRI (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER INLET FOR WED WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
NORTHWARD...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND RELAXING WINDS NORTH.
NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THU
ALLOWING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO LOCAL WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
IMPROVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
FRI. SEAS 2-3 FEET...BUT 1 TO 2 FEET NEARSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  75  92 /  20  10  10  20
MCO  74  95  75  95 /  20  20  20  20
MLB  74  91  75  92 /  30  20  20  30
VRB  73  91  74  91 /  30  30  20  30
LEE  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  20
SFB  76  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  20
ORL  76  95  78  95 /  20  10  20  20
FPR  74  90  73  91 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291929
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS
WILL STEADILY PUSH PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND SOUTHWARD WITH BACK
EDGE OF DRYING GETTING INTO OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.
HAVE HELD ONTO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
SINCE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF FRONTAL TROUGH.
ALSO...DAYTIME CONVECTION MOVED ACROSS SO FAST AND THERE WILL BE
POCKETS OF LINGERING INSTABILITY.

WED-THU (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER ENTIRE EASTERN U.S. EVEN AS AN OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMARKABLY REACHES THE S THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. FRONT
WEAKENS AND ERODES BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED STORMS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH FOR TREASURE COAST AND
VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ZONES NORTH OF THIS AREA WILL REALIZE
RARE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS FOR JULY AND REDUCED SUMMERTIME RAIN
CHANCES. IN FACT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER
DRYING NORTH OF ORLANDO/CANAVERAL WILL CURB POPS...AND TO LEVELS
TOO LOW TO MENTION GENERALLY NORTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL.
FOR THU...SURFACE WIND FIELDS SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE BUT WITH
AN ONSHORE AFTERNOON PUSH. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL GATHERED
OVER S FL...BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CHANCES STILL BELOW NORMAL THU...BETTER TOWARD TREASURE
COAST. RATHER WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN LOW/MID 90S EACH DAY.

FRI-MON (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BEGINS TO DAMPEN SUN INTO MON. SOMEWHAT
CONFUSED SFC PRESSURE FIELD FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AS TRACE MARKERS OF
OLD/DIFFUSE FRONT LINGER EVIDENT BY SUBTLE TROUGHING AND NARROW
BANDED MOISTURE ALL LIFTING NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERLIES OPEN UP AND
RE- ESTABLISH FOR THE PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 90S...BUT
NOT QUITE AS WARM ONCE SE FLOW BECOMES PREVALENT FOR THE WEEKEND.
POPS NEAR NORMAL WITH EMBEDDED SEA BREEZES WORKING INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO EVENING THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS YET.
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS ON WED SHOULD BE KVRB-KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN AND A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRYING WORKS SOUTHWARD.

WED-FRI (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER INLET FOR WED WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
NORTHWARD...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND RELAXING WINDS NORTH.
NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THU
ALLOWING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO LOCAL WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
IMPROVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
FRI. SEAS 2-3 FEET...BUT 1 TO 2 FEET NEARSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  75  92 /  20  10  10  20
MCO  74  95  75  95 /  20  20  20  20
MLB  74  91  75  92 /  30  20  20  30
VRB  73  91  74  91 /  30  30  20  30
LEE  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  20
SFB  76  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  20
ORL  76  95  78  95 /  20  10  20  20
FPR  74  90  73  91 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291929
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS
WILL STEADILY PUSH PRE FRONTAL MOISTURE BAND SOUTHWARD WITH BACK
EDGE OF DRYING GETTING INTO OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS TOWARD SUNRISE.
HAVE HELD ONTO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT
SINCE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH AHEAD OF FRONTAL TROUGH.
ALSO...DAYTIME CONVECTION MOVED ACROSS SO FAST AND THERE WILL BE
POCKETS OF LINGERING INSTABILITY.

WED-THU (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS OVER ENTIRE EASTERN U.S. EVEN AS AN OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMARKABLY REACHES THE S THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. FRONT
WEAKENS AND ERODES BUT ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED STORMS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH FOR TREASURE COAST AND
VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ZONES NORTH OF THIS AREA WILL REALIZE
RARE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS FOR JULY AND REDUCED SUMMERTIME RAIN
CHANCES. IN FACT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER
DRYING NORTH OF ORLANDO/CANAVERAL WILL CURB POPS...AND TO LEVELS
TOO LOW TO MENTION GENERALLY NORTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL.
FOR THU...SURFACE WIND FIELDS SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE BUT WITH
AN ONSHORE AFTERNOON PUSH. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE STILL GATHERED
OVER S FL...BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.
RAIN CHANCES STILL BELOW NORMAL THU...BETTER TOWARD TREASURE
COAST. RATHER WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN LOW/MID 90S EACH DAY.

FRI-MON (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND BUT BEGINS TO DAMPEN SUN INTO MON. SOMEWHAT
CONFUSED SFC PRESSURE FIELD FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AS TRACE MARKERS OF
OLD/DIFFUSE FRONT LINGER EVIDENT BY SUBTLE TROUGHING AND NARROW
BANDED MOISTURE ALL LIFTING NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERLIES OPEN UP AND
RE- ESTABLISH FOR THE PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 90S...BUT
NOT QUITE AS WARM ONCE SE FLOW BECOMES PREVALENT FOR THE WEEKEND.
POPS NEAR NORMAL WITH EMBEDDED SEA BREEZES WORKING INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER INTO EVENING THEN CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH SETTLING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAFS YET.
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS ON WED SHOULD BE KVRB-KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FRONTAL TROUGH WILL SETTLE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN WATERS.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN AND A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
GRADUAL DIMINISHING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS DRYING WORKS SOUTHWARD.

WED-FRI (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER INLET FOR WED WILL SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
NORTHWARD...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND RELAXING WINDS NORTH.
NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THU
ALLOWING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO LOCAL WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
IMPROVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR
FRI. SEAS 2-3 FEET...BUT 1 TO 2 FEET NEARSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  75  92 /  20  10  10  20
MCO  74  95  75  95 /  20  20  20  20
MLB  74  91  75  92 /  30  20  20  30
VRB  73  91  74  91 /  30  30  20  30
LEE  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  20
SFB  76  95  77  95 /  20  10  10  20
ORL  76  95  78  95 /  20  10  20  20
FPR  74  90  73  91 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291851
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS WILL BE WIND AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO NW OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. H5 TEMPS NEVER COOL
DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MOVED THROUGH KMIA/KOPF EARLIER TODAY BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. STILL WAITING FOR THE INDICATION OF
SE OR SSE WIND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST/SEA BREEZE THAT SHOULD
INITIATE MORE COVERAGE PERHAPS LATE DAY. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE NOW
DEVELOPING INLAND AND COULD THROW OUTFLOWS WHICH ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER. WILL BEGRUDGINGLY HOLD VCTS IN TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
REMOVED IF STORMS ARE HESITANT TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SHOVING ANOTHER INFUSION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TO AFFECT KAPF EARLY
TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT
OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  91  76  90 /  30  60  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
MIAMI            79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
NAPLES           78  89  78  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291851
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS WILL BE WIND AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO NW OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. H5 TEMPS NEVER COOL
DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MOVED THROUGH KMIA/KOPF EARLIER TODAY BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. STILL WAITING FOR THE INDICATION OF
SE OR SSE WIND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST/SEA BREEZE THAT SHOULD
INITIATE MORE COVERAGE PERHAPS LATE DAY. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE NOW
DEVELOPING INLAND AND COULD THROW OUTFLOWS WHICH ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER. WILL BEGRUDGINGLY HOLD VCTS IN TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
REMOVED IF STORMS ARE HESITANT TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SHOVING ANOTHER INFUSION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TO AFFECT KAPF EARLY
TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT
OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  91  76  90 /  30  60  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
MIAMI            79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
NAPLES           78  89  78  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291851
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS WILL BE WIND AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO NW OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. H5 TEMPS NEVER COOL
DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MOVED THROUGH KMIA/KOPF EARLIER TODAY BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. STILL WAITING FOR THE INDICATION OF
SE OR SSE WIND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST/SEA BREEZE THAT SHOULD
INITIATE MORE COVERAGE PERHAPS LATE DAY. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE NOW
DEVELOPING INLAND AND COULD THROW OUTFLOWS WHICH ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER. WILL BEGRUDGINGLY HOLD VCTS IN TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
REMOVED IF STORMS ARE HESITANT TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SHOVING ANOTHER INFUSION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TO AFFECT KAPF EARLY
TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT
OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  91  76  90 /  30  60  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
MIAMI            79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
NAPLES           78  89  78  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291851
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AND MOVE QUICKLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR STORMS WILL BE WIND AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.

PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH OVERNIGHT...WITH
DEEP MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION...AND THE FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GOOD CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO NW OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO
ENHANCE SHOWER AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. H5 TEMPS NEVER COOL
DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MOVED THROUGH KMIA/KOPF EARLIER TODAY BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. STILL WAITING FOR THE INDICATION OF
SE OR SSE WIND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST/SEA BREEZE THAT SHOULD
INITIATE MORE COVERAGE PERHAPS LATE DAY. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE NOW
DEVELOPING INLAND AND COULD THROW OUTFLOWS WHICH ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER. WILL BEGRUDGINGLY HOLD VCTS IN TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
REMOVED IF STORMS ARE HESITANT TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SHOVING ANOTHER INFUSION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TO AFFECT KAPF EARLY
TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT
OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AND AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  91  76  90 /  30  60  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
MIAMI            79  91  78  90 /  20  60  40  60
NAPLES           78  89  78  89 /  50  50  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KKEY 291835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP MID AND
UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR LATE IN JULY...WITH THE AXIS OF AN EAST
COAST TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY
FROM AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THERE REMAINS AN ELONGATED EAST TO
WEST MID AND UPPER WARM CORE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE SITUATED FROM THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY OF FAR WEST TEXAS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THENCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 27 NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS ALONG THE THE LENGTH OF THE
ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM A COOL 999 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. AS SUCH...A LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY RIGHT OVER THE
LENGTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEARLY DELINEATES NARROW WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS CLOUD LINES JUST
INSIDE HAWK CHANNEL PARALLELS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. KEY WEST
RADAR DOES DETECT SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUDLINE...AS WELL AS OTHER
SHOWERS ON CLOUDLINES SITUATED IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID AND UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARDS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEFORE LOOSING ANY IDENTITY
DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...SURFACE TO 700 MB...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. BUT GIVEN THE
DEARTH OF DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DOWNWIND OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...OR ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. HENCE A SPLIT WHICH WAS PERFORMED ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
CYCLE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO PERIODS.

SINCE THE AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) NEAR 1.50 INCHES...CUMULUS CLOUD LINES WILL
REQUIRE A FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS.
SO CONFIDENCE IN GOOD CUMULUS LINE FORMATION RIGHT OVER THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE KEYS REMAINS TO LOW TO INCREASE POPS...THEREFORE SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO
BOUNDARY SCALE INTERACTIONS IN THE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. THE
OTHER STORY IS THAT GIVEN LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...AND GIVEN THE VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THE HEAT
INDEX MAY REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES OVER THE ISLANDS.

ON THE THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL COLLAPSE AGAIN ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR
CUMULUS CLOUD LINE FORMATION GIVEN AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...SO KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS ATTM.

EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALL AVAILABLE INDICATIONS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT TYPICALLY WEAKER LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE
HINTED IN THE MODELS...AND GIVEN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATION OF AROUND 2.00 INCHES COLUMNAR PWAT...WILL MAINTAIN
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS
ACTUALLY ONLY 10 PERCENT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AS WE ENTER AUGUST. THE
TROPICS REMAIN QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND 7 DAYS IN TIME
FROM ANY IMPACTS TO THIS REGION...IF THERE WILL EVER BE ANY AT ALL.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY
FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES AGAIN IN HAWK CHANNEL...SO CONDITIONS MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR ROUNDS OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME GENTLE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE BREEZES
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. STEERING FLOW OF
WEST TO NORTHWEST ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE PRODUCTS INDICATE
LAYERS OF DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...COLLISIONS BETWEEN CUMULUS LINES HAVE
BEEN EFFECTIVE THIS MORNING IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...AND
ADDITIONAL COLLISIONS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23
INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE
DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH.
RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  92  82  93  82 /  20  20  20  30  30
MARATHON  82  94  81  91  82 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................CLR
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............BF/MP/SC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST















000
FXUS62 KKEY 291835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP MID AND
UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR LATE IN JULY...WITH THE AXIS OF AN EAST
COAST TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY
FROM AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THERE REMAINS AN ELONGATED EAST TO
WEST MID AND UPPER WARM CORE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE SITUATED FROM THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY OF FAR WEST TEXAS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THENCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 27 NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS ALONG THE THE LENGTH OF THE
ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM A COOL 999 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. AS SUCH...A LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY RIGHT OVER THE
LENGTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEARLY DELINEATES NARROW WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS CLOUD LINES JUST
INSIDE HAWK CHANNEL PARALLELS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. KEY WEST
RADAR DOES DETECT SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUDLINE...AS WELL AS OTHER
SHOWERS ON CLOUDLINES SITUATED IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID AND UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARDS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEFORE LOOSING ANY IDENTITY
DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...SURFACE TO 700 MB...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. BUT GIVEN THE
DEARTH OF DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DOWNWIND OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...OR ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. HENCE A SPLIT WHICH WAS PERFORMED ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
CYCLE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO PERIODS.

SINCE THE AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) NEAR 1.50 INCHES...CUMULUS CLOUD LINES WILL
REQUIRE A FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS.
SO CONFIDENCE IN GOOD CUMULUS LINE FORMATION RIGHT OVER THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE KEYS REMAINS TO LOW TO INCREASE POPS...THEREFORE SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO
BOUNDARY SCALE INTERACTIONS IN THE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. THE
OTHER STORY IS THAT GIVEN LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...AND GIVEN THE VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THE HEAT
INDEX MAY REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES OVER THE ISLANDS.

ON THE THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL COLLAPSE AGAIN ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR
CUMULUS CLOUD LINE FORMATION GIVEN AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...SO KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS ATTM.

EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALL AVAILABLE INDICATIONS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT TYPICALLY WEAKER LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE
HINTED IN THE MODELS...AND GIVEN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATION OF AROUND 2.00 INCHES COLUMNAR PWAT...WILL MAINTAIN
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS
ACTUALLY ONLY 10 PERCENT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AS WE ENTER AUGUST. THE
TROPICS REMAIN QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND 7 DAYS IN TIME
FROM ANY IMPACTS TO THIS REGION...IF THERE WILL EVER BE ANY AT ALL.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY
FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES AGAIN IN HAWK CHANNEL...SO CONDITIONS MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR ROUNDS OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME GENTLE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE BREEZES
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. STEERING FLOW OF
WEST TO NORTHWEST ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE PRODUCTS INDICATE
LAYERS OF DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...COLLISIONS BETWEEN CUMULUS LINES HAVE
BEEN EFFECTIVE THIS MORNING IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...AND
ADDITIONAL COLLISIONS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23
INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE
DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH.
RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  92  82  93  82 /  20  20  20  30  30
MARATHON  82  94  81  91  82 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................CLR
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............BF/MP/SC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST















000
FXUS62 KKEY 291835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP MID AND
UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR LATE IN JULY...WITH THE AXIS OF AN EAST
COAST TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY
FROM AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THERE REMAINS AN ELONGATED EAST TO
WEST MID AND UPPER WARM CORE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE SITUATED FROM THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY OF FAR WEST TEXAS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THENCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 27 NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS ALONG THE THE LENGTH OF THE
ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM A COOL 999 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. AS SUCH...A LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY RIGHT OVER THE
LENGTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEARLY DELINEATES NARROW WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS CLOUD LINES JUST
INSIDE HAWK CHANNEL PARALLELS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. KEY WEST
RADAR DOES DETECT SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUDLINE...AS WELL AS OTHER
SHOWERS ON CLOUDLINES SITUATED IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID AND UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARDS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEFORE LOOSING ANY IDENTITY
DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...SURFACE TO 700 MB...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. BUT GIVEN THE
DEARTH OF DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DOWNWIND OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...OR ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. HENCE A SPLIT WHICH WAS PERFORMED ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
CYCLE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO PERIODS.

SINCE THE AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) NEAR 1.50 INCHES...CUMULUS CLOUD LINES WILL
REQUIRE A FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS.
SO CONFIDENCE IN GOOD CUMULUS LINE FORMATION RIGHT OVER THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE KEYS REMAINS TO LOW TO INCREASE POPS...THEREFORE SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO
BOUNDARY SCALE INTERACTIONS IN THE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. THE
OTHER STORY IS THAT GIVEN LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...AND GIVEN THE VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THE HEAT
INDEX MAY REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES OVER THE ISLANDS.

ON THE THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL COLLAPSE AGAIN ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR
CUMULUS CLOUD LINE FORMATION GIVEN AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...SO KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS ATTM.

EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALL AVAILABLE INDICATIONS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT TYPICALLY WEAKER LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE
HINTED IN THE MODELS...AND GIVEN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATION OF AROUND 2.00 INCHES COLUMNAR PWAT...WILL MAINTAIN
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS
ACTUALLY ONLY 10 PERCENT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AS WE ENTER AUGUST. THE
TROPICS REMAIN QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND 7 DAYS IN TIME
FROM ANY IMPACTS TO THIS REGION...IF THERE WILL EVER BE ANY AT ALL.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY
FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES AGAIN IN HAWK CHANNEL...SO CONDITIONS MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR ROUNDS OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME GENTLE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE BREEZES
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. STEERING FLOW OF
WEST TO NORTHWEST ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE PRODUCTS INDICATE
LAYERS OF DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...COLLISIONS BETWEEN CUMULUS LINES HAVE
BEEN EFFECTIVE THIS MORNING IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...AND
ADDITIONAL COLLISIONS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23
INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE
DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH.
RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  92  82  93  82 /  20  20  20  30  30
MARATHON  82  94  81  91  82 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................CLR
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............BF/MP/SC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST















000
FXUS62 KKEY 291835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP MID AND
UPPER LONGWAVE PATTERN FOR LATE IN JULY...WITH THE AXIS OF AN EAST
COAST TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOW COUNTRY
FROM AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMES BAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THERE REMAINS AN ELONGATED EAST TO
WEST MID AND UPPER WARM CORE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE SITUATED FROM THE
PECOS RIVER VALLEY OF FAR WEST TEXAS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THENCE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG 27 NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS ALONG THE THE LENGTH OF THE
ENTIRE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM A COOL 999 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. AS SUCH...A LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY RIGHT OVER THE
LENGTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
CLEARLY DELINEATES NARROW WELL DEVELOPED CUMULUS CLOUD LINES JUST
INSIDE HAWK CHANNEL PARALLELS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS. KEY WEST
RADAR DOES DETECT SHOWERS WITHIN THIS CLOUDLINE...AS WELL AS OTHER
SHOWERS ON CLOUDLINES SITUATED IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID AND UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE BREAKING DOWN THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARDS DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEFORE LOOSING ANY IDENTITY
DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT OF THIS
FEATURE...LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW...SURFACE TO 700 MB...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LENGTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN. BUT GIVEN THE
DEARTH OF DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...THE BEST SHOT FOR SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DOWNWIND OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...OR ACROSS THE UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS. HENCE A SPLIT WHICH WAS PERFORMED ON THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
CYCLE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO PERIODS.

SINCE THE AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE
PWAT(PRECIPITABLE WATER) NEAR 1.50 INCHES...CUMULUS CLOUD LINES WILL
REQUIRE A FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS.
SO CONFIDENCE IN GOOD CUMULUS LINE FORMATION RIGHT OVER THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE KEYS REMAINS TO LOW TO INCREASE POPS...THEREFORE SLIGHT
CHANCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE PRIMARILY DUE TO
BOUNDARY SCALE INTERACTIONS IN THE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. THE
OTHER STORY IS THAT GIVEN LIGHT TO GENTLE WESTERLY
FLOW...TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...AND GIVEN THE VERY HIGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES...THE HEAT
INDEX MAY REACH AROUND 105 DEGREES OVER THE ISLANDS.

ON THE THURSDAY THE WINDS WILL COLLAPSE AGAIN ACROSS THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS...WHICH WILL PROVIDE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR
CUMULUS CLOUD LINE FORMATION GIVEN AVAILABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...SO KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS ATTM.

EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ALL AVAILABLE INDICATIONS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT TYPICALLY WEAKER LOWER LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...HOWEVER...SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE
HINTED IN THE MODELS...AND GIVEN MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATION OF AROUND 2.00 INCHES COLUMNAR PWAT...WILL MAINTAIN
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS IS
ACTUALLY ONLY 10 PERCENT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY AS WE ENTER AUGUST. THE
TROPICS REMAIN QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A WELL DEVELOPED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEYOND 7 DAYS IN TIME
FROM ANY IMPACTS TO THIS REGION...IF THERE WILL EVER BE ANY AT ALL.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT
TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY
FAVOR CUMULUS CLOUD LINES AGAIN IN HAWK CHANNEL...SO CONDITIONS MAY
BE CONDUCIVE FOR ROUNDS OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS DURING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME GENTLE AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH MODERATE BREEZES
POSSIBLE FOR A TIME SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. STEERING FLOW OF
WEST TO NORTHWEST ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE PRODUCTS INDICATE
LAYERS OF DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. HOWEVER...COLLISIONS BETWEEN CUMULUS LINES HAVE
BEEN EFFECTIVE THIS MORNING IN PRODUCING PRECIPITATION...AND
ADDITIONAL COLLISIONS ARE LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23
INCHES OF RAIN FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE
DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH.
RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  92  82  93  82 /  20  20  20  30  30
MARATHON  82  94  81  91  82 /  20  20  20  30  30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................CLR
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............BF/MP/SC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST















000
FXUS62 KTAE 291833
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Noon EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
North FL, extending westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico
about 60 miles offshore. Precip Water values across much of AL & GA
were 50% below climatology, and this unusually dry airmass will
continue to overspread our forecast area through tonight. Light
winds and dry air will help low temperatures cool to the mid 60s
(slightly warmer at the beaches and in the cities). Interestingly,
if the low at Tallahassee reaches our forecast of 66 deg tonight, it
would be a new record low for July 30.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A few more dry days to finish off an unusually dry July for the
region. The cold front that pushed through this morning will settle
well to our south on Wednesday before slowly lifting north through
Thursday night. Although the max temps will still be at or above
seasonal levels, afternoon dew points in the 50s to around 60 will
make it feel much more bearable. The most notable change will be the
cooler nighttime temps, especially Wednesday night with lows in the
mid 60s most inland areas. Thursday night`s min temps will generally
be in the upper 60s to around 70.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] A rare period (for summertime along the Gulf
Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least Wednesday.
VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW 5 to 10 KT
today, and 5 KT or less overnight through Wednesday morning.

&&

.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions with light winds and low seas return
to the local waters at least through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

RH values will likely be near locally critical levels Wed afternoon.
However, other factors, like ERC and KBDI, are not expected to reach
Red Flag levels at this time.

&&

.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  93  65  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   71  89  72  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        63  89  65  93  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  91  66  94  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      63  94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    66  93  67  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  70  90  72  89  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 291833
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
233 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The Noon EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
North FL, extending westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico
about 60 miles offshore. Precip Water values across much of AL & GA
were 50% below climatology, and this unusually dry airmass will
continue to overspread our forecast area through tonight. Light
winds and dry air will help low temperatures cool to the mid 60s
(slightly warmer at the beaches and in the cities). Interestingly,
if the low at Tallahassee reaches our forecast of 66 deg tonight, it
would be a new record low for July 30.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A few more dry days to finish off an unusually dry July for the
region. The cold front that pushed through this morning will settle
well to our south on Wednesday before slowly lifting north through
Thursday night. Although the max temps will still be at or above
seasonal levels, afternoon dew points in the 50s to around 60 will
make it feel much more bearable. The most notable change will be the
cooler nighttime temps, especially Wednesday night with lows in the
mid 60s most inland areas. Thursday night`s min temps will generally
be in the upper 60s to around 70.

.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday] A rare period (for summertime along the Gulf
Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least Wednesday.
VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW 5 to 10 KT
today, and 5 KT or less overnight through Wednesday morning.

&&

.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions with light winds and low seas return
to the local waters at least through the remainder of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

RH values will likely be near locally critical levels Wed afternoon.
However, other factors, like ERC and KBDI, are not expected to reach
Red Flag levels at this time.

&&

.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  93  65  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   71  89  72  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        63  89  65  93  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  91  66  94  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      63  94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    66  93  67  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  70  90  72  89  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291801
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014


...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A COOL FRONT PRESSING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL WILL SKIRT
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A GNV-SGJ LINE. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL ALL DAY WITH PRECIP
TRENDS...AND LEANED TOWARD IT WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTH OF JAX FOCUSED NEAR AND EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN WHERE SHALLOW SFC CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEW PTS WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND TEMPS WERE NEAR 90. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE GA AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF N FL...DRY AIR MIXED DOWN DUE TO INSOLATION AND DEW
PTS DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE MID
60S ACROSS NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BELOW CLIMO VALUES...EVEN NEAR RECORD
VALUES AT JAX...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S RIVER
BASIN/COAST. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND COOLER SFC TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1 INCH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S PRODUCING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM
SEABREEZE CONVECTION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AMPLIFY UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SE AND AFFECT MAINLY SE GA ON FRIDAY WITH POPS RETURNING TO
AT LEAST CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING WILL
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...WITH A CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING ACTIVE SEA BREEZES. EXPECT A RETURN TO
A SEASONABLY WET WEATHER PATTERN...WITH HIGH-END CHANCE DIURNAL
POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR LESS A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 07Z.
REMOVED VCSH FROM ALL TERMINALS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL LATE WED THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NE...WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. BY THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN ON WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER RHS`S INTO THE 30S WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA SO
NO HEADLINES. RH`S WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  75  87  75  87 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  68  90  73  90 /   0  10  10  20
SGJ  74  89  74  87 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  67  91  70  91 /  10   0   0  20
OCF  69  92  71  91 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA






000
FXUS62 KJAX 291801
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014


...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A COOL FRONT PRESSING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL WILL SKIRT
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A GNV-SGJ LINE. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL ALL DAY WITH PRECIP
TRENDS...AND LEANED TOWARD IT WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTH OF JAX FOCUSED NEAR AND EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN WHERE SHALLOW SFC CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEW PTS WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND TEMPS WERE NEAR 90. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE GA AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF N FL...DRY AIR MIXED DOWN DUE TO INSOLATION AND DEW
PTS DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE MID
60S ACROSS NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BELOW CLIMO VALUES...EVEN NEAR RECORD
VALUES AT JAX...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S RIVER
BASIN/COAST. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND COOLER SFC TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1 INCH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S PRODUCING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM
SEABREEZE CONVECTION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AMPLIFY UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SE AND AFFECT MAINLY SE GA ON FRIDAY WITH POPS RETURNING TO
AT LEAST CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING WILL
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...WITH A CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING ACTIVE SEA BREEZES. EXPECT A RETURN TO
A SEASONABLY WET WEATHER PATTERN...WITH HIGH-END CHANCE DIURNAL
POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR LESS A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 07Z.
REMOVED VCSH FROM ALL TERMINALS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL LATE WED THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NE...WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. BY THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN ON WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER RHS`S INTO THE 30S WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA SO
NO HEADLINES. RH`S WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  75  87  75  87 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  68  90  73  90 /   0  10  10  20
SGJ  74  89  74  87 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  67  91  70  91 /  10   0   0  20
OCF  69  92  71  91 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA






000
FXUS62 KJAX 291801
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014


...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...CONVECTION ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A COOL FRONT PRESSING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL FL WILL SKIRT
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A GNV-SGJ LINE. THE HRRR INITIALIZED WELL ALL DAY WITH PRECIP
TRENDS...AND LEANED TOWARD IT WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING SOUTH OF JAX FOCUSED NEAR AND EAST OF THE ST JOHNS RIVER
BASIN WHERE SHALLOW SFC CONVERGENCE WILL COINCIDE WITH LINGERING
INSTABILITY WHERE SFC DEW PTS WERE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AND TEMPS WERE NEAR 90. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE GA AND THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF N FL...DRY AIR MIXED DOWN DUE TO INSOLATION AND DEW
PTS DROPPED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE MID
60S ACROSS NE FL EARLY THIS AFTN. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT...LEANED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
WITH MIN TEMPS FALLING BELOW CLIMO VALUES...EVEN NEAR RECORD
VALUES AT JAX...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S INLAND TO MID 70S RIVER
BASIN/COAST. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT GIVEN
DRIER AIR ALOFT AND COOLER SFC TEMPS...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR JULY 30TH
JAX68/1894
GNV 62/1924
AMG59/1954
SSI69/1962

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AIR OVER THE AREA WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1 INCH. EXPECT
ANOTHER DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S PRODUCING LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. MOISTURE
WILL START TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PM
SEABREEZE CONVECTION. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AMPLIFY UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SE AND AFFECT MAINLY SE GA ON FRIDAY WITH POPS RETURNING TO
AT LEAST CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING WILL
SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE AXIS
LOCATED JUST WEST OF OUR REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...WITH A CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTING ACTIVE SEA BREEZES. EXPECT A RETURN TO
A SEASONABLY WET WEATHER PATTERN...WITH HIGH-END CHANCE DIURNAL
POPS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR LESS A BRIEF PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ AND GNV EARLY WED MORNING AFTER 07Z.
REMOVED VCSH FROM ALL TERMINALS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE THIS AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES WITH WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KTS OR
LESS TONIGHT AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. EASTERLY FLOW 10 KTS
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL LATE WED THROUGH THU AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TO THE NE...WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. BY THE WEEKEND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP WITH AN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS LATE FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE TRIES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN ON WED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA BEHIND COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER RHS`S INTO THE 30S WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS AND FUEL MOISTURE WILL NOT MEET CRITERIA SO
NO HEADLINES. RH`S WILL START TO INCREASE THURSDAY ALONG WITH RAIN
CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  93  71  93 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  75  87  75  87 /   0  10  10  20
JAX  68  90  73  90 /   0  10  10  20
SGJ  74  89  74  87 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  67  91  70  91 /  10   0   0  20
OCF  69  92  71  91 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA







000
FXUS62 KMFL 291742
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
142 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MOVED THROUGH KMIA/KOPF EARLIER TODAY BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. STILL WAITING FOR THE INDICATION OF
SE OR SSE WIND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST/SEA BREEZE THAT SHOULD
INITIATE MORE COVERAGE PERHAPS LATE DAY. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE NOW
DEVELOPING INLAND AND COULD THROW OUTFLOWS WHICH ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER. WILL BEGRUDGINGLY HOLD VCTS IN TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
REMOVED IF STORMS ARE HESITANT TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SHOVING ANOTHER INFUSION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TO AFFECT KAPF EARLY
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.3 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WERE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...

RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA

MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  77  91 /  30  50  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  92  79  92 /  20  60  50  50
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  20  60  50  50
NAPLES           80  90  78  87 /  40  60  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291742
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
142 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MOVED THROUGH KMIA/KOPF EARLIER TODAY BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE IS UNIMPRESSIVE. STILL WAITING FOR THE INDICATION OF
SE OR SSE WIND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST/SEA BREEZE THAT SHOULD
INITIATE MORE COVERAGE PERHAPS LATE DAY. A FEW MORE STORMS ARE NOW
DEVELOPING INLAND AND COULD THROW OUTFLOWS WHICH ALSO SERVE AS A
TRIGGER. WILL BEGRUDGINGLY HOLD VCTS IN TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE
REMOVED IF STORMS ARE HESITANT TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SHOVING ANOTHER INFUSION OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER COVERAGE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. ALSO...WESTERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT MAY ALLOW SOME SHOWERS
OR STORMS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS TO AFFECT KAPF EARLY
TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1013 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.3 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WERE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...

RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA

MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  77  91 /  30  50  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  92  79  92 /  20  60  50  50
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  20  60  50  50
NAPLES           80  90  78  87 /  40  60  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KTAE 291431
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
North FL, extending west across the Gulf coastal waters about 30
to 60 miles offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continued along and ahead of this front, and there is still enough
boundary moisture and CAPE to support isolated storms as far north
as Dixie County. Otherwise, Precip Water values had fallen to 50%
below climo levels across central GA & AL, and this dry air will
continue advecting into our forecacast area this afternoon. Highs
will still be in the lower to mid 90s, but the lower humidity
will make it feel more comfortable than the hot and muggy conditions
of the past few days.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...A rare period (for summertime along the
Gulf Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least
Wednesday. VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW
5 to 10 KT today, and 5 KT or less overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [418 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Extremely dry air for this time of year will continue tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. This
dry air will allow low temperatures to fall into the lower to
middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and Wednesday
night, with the potential for some record or near record low
temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or
storm, but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid
to upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.


.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.


.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.


.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /  10   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /  10   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 291431
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
North FL, extending west across the Gulf coastal waters about 30
to 60 miles offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continued along and ahead of this front, and there is still enough
boundary moisture and CAPE to support isolated storms as far north
as Dixie County. Otherwise, Precip Water values had fallen to 50%
below climo levels across central GA & AL, and this dry air will
continue advecting into our forecacast area this afternoon. Highs
will still be in the lower to mid 90s, but the lower humidity
will make it feel more comfortable than the hot and muggy conditions
of the past few days.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...A rare period (for summertime along the
Gulf Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least
Wednesday. VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW
5 to 10 KT today, and 5 KT or less overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [418 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Extremely dry air for this time of year will continue tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. This
dry air will allow low temperatures to fall into the lower to
middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and Wednesday
night, with the potential for some record or near record low
temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or
storm, but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid
to upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.


.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.


.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.


.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /  10   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /  10   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 291431
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
North FL, extending west across the Gulf coastal waters about 30
to 60 miles offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continued along and ahead of this front, and there is still enough
boundary moisture and CAPE to support isolated storms as far north
as Dixie County. Otherwise, Precip Water values had fallen to 50%
below climo levels across central GA & AL, and this dry air will
continue advecting into our forecacast area this afternoon. Highs
will still be in the lower to mid 90s, but the lower humidity
will make it feel more comfortable than the hot and muggy conditions
of the past few days.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...A rare period (for summertime along the
Gulf Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least
Wednesday. VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW
5 to 10 KT today, and 5 KT or less overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [418 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Extremely dry air for this time of year will continue tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. This
dry air will allow low temperatures to fall into the lower to
middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and Wednesday
night, with the potential for some record or near record low
temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or
storm, but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid
to upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.


.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.


.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.


.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /  10   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /  10   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTAE 291431
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
North FL, extending west across the Gulf coastal waters about 30
to 60 miles offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continued along and ahead of this front, and there is still enough
boundary moisture and CAPE to support isolated storms as far north
as Dixie County. Otherwise, Precip Water values had fallen to 50%
below climo levels across central GA & AL, and this dry air will
continue advecting into our forecacast area this afternoon. Highs
will still be in the lower to mid 90s, but the lower humidity
will make it feel more comfortable than the hot and muggy conditions
of the past few days.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...A rare period (for summertime along the
Gulf Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least
Wednesday. VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW
5 to 10 KT today, and 5 KT or less overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [418 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Extremely dry air for this time of year will continue tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. This
dry air will allow low temperatures to fall into the lower to
middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and Wednesday
night, with the potential for some record or near record low
temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or
storm, but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid
to upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.


.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.


.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.


.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /  10   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /  10   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KTBW 291417 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED MARINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTY COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ASHORE ALONG THE SUNCOAST AND TAMPA BAY AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS TRAILING IN NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -5 DEG C ON THIS MORNING/S
12Z TBW SOUNDING...HAIL CONCERNS ARE MUTED. NOT MUCH OF A SETUP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH AN ISOLATED GUSTY STORM OR WATERSPOUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY AND
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. TRAINING OF STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE AN ISSUE IF THE FRONTAL PROGRESS SLOWS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST POPS BASED OFF OBSERVED TRENDS AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE LATEST LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
NEW ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT WITH THESE CHANGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS ACROSS AN AREA PREVENTING WARMING...BUT THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THIS
FORECAST CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CREEPING SOUTHWARD. TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY
OUT OF THE WEST...WITH VARIABLE GUSTINESS AROUND CONVECTION.
TERMINALS IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAIN COULD DETERIORATE TO LIFR
BRIEFLY. TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL BE FIRST TO CLEAR OUT AS
THE COLD FRONT NEARS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
A COOL FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA IS CURRENTLY BRINGING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH
TODAY BEFORE THEY SUBSIDE BY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
AND DISSIPATES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH STARTING WEDNESDAY FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REPLACES THE OLD FRONT.
HEADLINES...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  76 /  60  30  10   0
FMY  92  78  93  77 /  60  50  50  20
GIF  93  75  95  74 /  60  30  20  10
SRQ  91  79  92  76 /  60  50  30  10
BKV  93  71  94  67 /  60  20  10  10
SPG  90  80  92  79 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL










000
FXUS62 KTBW 291414 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTY COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ASHORE ALONG THE SUNCOAST AND TAMPA BAY AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS TRAILING IN NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -5 DEG C ON THIS MORNING/S
12Z TBW SOUNDING...HAIL CONCERNS ARE MUTED. NOT MUCH OF A SETUP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH AN ISOLATED GUSTY STORM OR WATERSPOUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY AND
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. TRAINING OF STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE AN ISSUE IF THE FRONTAL PROGRESS SLOWS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST POPS BASED OFF OBSERVED TRENDS AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE LATEST LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
NEW ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT WITH THESE CHANGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS ACROSS AN AREA PREVENTING WARMING...BUT THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THIS
FORECAST CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CREEPING SOUTHWARD. TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY
OUT OF THE WEST...WITH VARIABLE GUSTINESS AROUND CONVECTION.
TERMINALS IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAIN COULD DETERIORATE TO LIFR
BRIEFLY. TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL BE FIRST TO CLEAR OUT AS
THE COLD FRONT NEARS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET AND INCREASE TO 2-3 FEET BY MID
WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP INLAND WATERS AT A LIGHT CHOP. WITH TS ARTHUR
MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL...WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY FLOW EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
ARTHUR MOVES NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL
INCREASE COME THURSDAY AND CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  76 /  60  30  10   0
FMY  92  78  93  77 /  60  50  50  20
GIF  93  75  95  74 /  60  30  20  10
SRQ  91  79  92  76 /  60  50  30  10
BKV  93  71  94  67 /  60  20  10  10
SPG  90  80  92  79 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 291414 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1014 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...

.UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE NATURE COAST THIS
MORNING...WITH GUSTY COASTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ASHORE ALONG THE SUNCOAST AND TAMPA BAY AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS TRAILING IN NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOVING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE COAST INTO THE TAMPA BAY AREA BY LATE
TONIGHT. WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -5 DEG C ON THIS MORNING/S
12Z TBW SOUNDING...HAIL CONCERNS ARE MUTED. NOT MUCH OF A SETUP
FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH AN ISOLATED GUSTY STORM OR WATERSPOUT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THEY SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY AND
LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS. TRAINING OF STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN COULD
BE AN ISSUE IF THE FRONTAL PROGRESS SLOWS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST POPS BASED OFF OBSERVED TRENDS AND
TIMING OF THE FRONT IN THE LATEST LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
NEW ZONES HAVE BEEN SENT WITH THESE CHANGES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES APPEAR ON TRACK...WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS ACROSS AN AREA PREVENTING WARMING...BUT THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO MITIGATE THIS
FORECAST CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CREEPING SOUTHWARD. TERMINALS WILL BE MAINLY
OUT OF THE WEST...WITH VARIABLE GUSTINESS AROUND CONVECTION.
TERMINALS IMPACTED BY HEAVY RAIN COULD DETERIORATE TO LIFR
BRIEFLY. TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS WILL BE FIRST TO CLEAR OUT AS
THE COLD FRONT NEARS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET AND INCREASE TO 2-3 FEET BY MID
WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP INLAND WATERS AT A LIGHT CHOP. WITH TS ARTHUR
MOVING NORTHWARD OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL...WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL SWITCH TO A WESTERLY FLOW EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
ARTHUR MOVES NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW BUT WILL
INCREASE COME THURSDAY AND CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS A SUMMER LIKE PATTERN RETURNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  76 /  60  30  10   0
FMY  92  78  93  77 /  60  50  50  20
GIF  93  75  95  74 /  60  30  20  10
SRQ  91  79  92  76 /  60  50  30  10
BKV  93  71  94  67 /  60  20  10  10
SPG  90  80  92  79 /  60  40  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...02/GARCIA
MARINE...007/DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...57/MCMICHAEL






000
FXUS62 KMFL 291413
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1013 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.3 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WERE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...

RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA

MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  77 /  50  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  92  79 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            93  79  92  79 /  50  20  60  50
NAPLES           90  80  90  78 /  20  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291413
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1013 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.3 INCHES. HOWEVER...SHOWERS
WERE ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO NORTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE
WARM ONCE AGAIN DUE TO THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH HEAT
INDICES AROUND 100F. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...

RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA

MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  77 /  50  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  92  79 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            93  79  92  79 /  50  20  60  50
NAPLES           90  80  90  78 /  20  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291348
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
948 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SOME LARGE PRE FRONTAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND OFF NORTHEAST FLORIDA SUGGEST THE PENINSULA WILL
HAVE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTRAL FLORIDA MORNING SOUNDINGS INDEED SHOW HIGHER MOISTURE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES WHICH WILL SUPPORT HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN THE LAST TWO DAYS.  500 MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM...
MINUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS BUT 700 MB TEMPS AT 8 DEGREES ARE NOT AS
WARM AS FORECAST BY THE GFS.  EARLY MORNING SATELLITE SHOWING PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE...SO WHERE IT HEATS UP INTO THE LOWER 90S...THERE WILL
BE DECENT INSTABILITY. NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS MAY KEEP A GOOD
PART OF THE AREA FROM GETTING DEBRIS CLOUDS SO THE CURRENT POPS AT
50 PERCENT LOOK GOOD.

SOUNDINGS SHOW STORM MOTION TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.
DESPITE THE HIGH MOISTURE THERE WAS SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR.  SO
EXPECT THAT A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

EXPECT THE BULK OF CONVECTION TO HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE BY EVENING BUT
WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH CLOSE BY TO THE NORTH...MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING UNTIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ALREADY SOME SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR KLEE...SO THE CHANCE
FOR STORMS ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE STARTING EARLIER THAN
NORMAL...LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT MANY OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE MOIST
AIR MASS...BUT DURATION LOOKS SHORT DUE TO DECENT STORM MOTION...
EAST SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO OCCUR.  SOME OF
THESE GUSTS COULD SWEEP OUT WELL AHEAD OF CONVECTION AND LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN
THE SURROUNDING WATERS HAVE HAD MODERATE LIGHTNING AMOUNTS SO WE
SHOULD EXPECT SIMILAR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER LAND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP
A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
BEEN AROUND 15 KNOTS...BUT THE FRONTAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASE...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.  SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS OFFSHORE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A CHOPPY RIDE BACK
TO THE COAST. ALLOW EXTRA TIME WHEN RETURNING TO SAFE HARBOR AHEAD
OF STORMS MOVING OFF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KJAX 291342
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...CONTINUED WARMTH BUT DRIER TODAY...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MARION COUNTY THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NW. DOUGLAS GA
REPORTED A DEW PT OF 63 WITH JAX AT 70. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE 12Z JAX RAOB SHOWED STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION AT
600 MB AND ABOVE...WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT NOT QUITE AT HOT AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH TEMPS ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO
LOW 90/NEAR 90 COAST UNDER A WARM WLY FLOW. AS TEMPS WARM FURTHER
THROUGH THE DAY...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN. UPDATED WITH MIXING
TOOLS AND EXTRACTED DEW PTS IN THE MID 50S OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND
SE GA TO LOW 60S AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER NE
FL...WITH LOW 70S STILL GENERALLY FROM GNV-SGJ SOUTHWARD. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP N OF GNV-SGJ. THE HRRR
INITIALIZED WELL WITH PRECIP THIS MORNING WEST OF CEDAR KEY...AND
THEN ADVERTISES THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN GENERALLY FROM GNV
TO SGJ SOUTHWARD AS WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BEST MOISTURE FOCUS
ACROSS THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF JAX. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS...WHICH WILL KEEP METRO JAX
NORTHWARD MOSTLY DRY TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPDATED THE TAFS
TO REMOVE MORNING VCSH WITH CONVECTION MOST LIKELY SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTN NEAR GNV. DRY AIR EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND REFINED VCTS AT GNV TO VCSH. COULD SEE
SOME WNW GUSTS MIDDAY BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS WITH RECENT HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS ONCE AGAIN WITH
PREVAILING NW WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS MORNING TRAILING THE FRONT
DECREASING TO SW THIS AFTN 10 KT OR LESS. COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS OVER THE AREA AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  94  70 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  92  75  88  76 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  93  70  91  73 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  76 /  20  20  10  10
GNV  94  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
OCF  94  70  94  71 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 291342
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...CONTINUED WARMTH BUT DRIER TODAY...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MARION COUNTY THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NW. DOUGLAS GA
REPORTED A DEW PT OF 63 WITH JAX AT 70. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE 12Z JAX RAOB SHOWED STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION AT
600 MB AND ABOVE...WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT NOT QUITE AT HOT AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH TEMPS ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO
LOW 90/NEAR 90 COAST UNDER A WARM WLY FLOW. AS TEMPS WARM FURTHER
THROUGH THE DAY...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN. UPDATED WITH MIXING
TOOLS AND EXTRACTED DEW PTS IN THE MID 50S OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND
SE GA TO LOW 60S AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER NE
FL...WITH LOW 70S STILL GENERALLY FROM GNV-SGJ SOUTHWARD. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP N OF GNV-SGJ. THE HRRR
INITIALIZED WELL WITH PRECIP THIS MORNING WEST OF CEDAR KEY...AND
THEN ADVERTISES THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN GENERALLY FROM GNV
TO SGJ SOUTHWARD AS WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BEST MOISTURE FOCUS
ACROSS THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF JAX. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS...WHICH WILL KEEP METRO JAX
NORTHWARD MOSTLY DRY TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPDATED THE TAFS
TO REMOVE MORNING VCSH WITH CONVECTION MOST LIKELY SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTN NEAR GNV. DRY AIR EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND REFINED VCTS AT GNV TO VCSH. COULD SEE
SOME WNW GUSTS MIDDAY BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS WITH RECENT HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS ONCE AGAIN WITH
PREVAILING NW WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS MORNING TRAILING THE FRONT
DECREASING TO SW THIS AFTN 10 KT OR LESS. COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS OVER THE AREA AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  94  70 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  92  75  88  76 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  93  70  91  73 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  76 /  20  20  10  10
GNV  94  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
OCF  94  70  94  71 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 291342
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...CONTINUED WARMTH BUT DRIER TODAY...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MARION COUNTY THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NW. DOUGLAS GA
REPORTED A DEW PT OF 63 WITH JAX AT 70. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE 12Z JAX RAOB SHOWED STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION AT
600 MB AND ABOVE...WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT NOT QUITE AT HOT AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH TEMPS ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO
LOW 90/NEAR 90 COAST UNDER A WARM WLY FLOW. AS TEMPS WARM FURTHER
THROUGH THE DAY...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN. UPDATED WITH MIXING
TOOLS AND EXTRACTED DEW PTS IN THE MID 50S OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND
SE GA TO LOW 60S AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER NE
FL...WITH LOW 70S STILL GENERALLY FROM GNV-SGJ SOUTHWARD. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP N OF GNV-SGJ. THE HRRR
INITIALIZED WELL WITH PRECIP THIS MORNING WEST OF CEDAR KEY...AND
THEN ADVERTISES THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN GENERALLY FROM GNV
TO SGJ SOUTHWARD AS WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BEST MOISTURE FOCUS
ACROSS THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF JAX. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS...WHICH WILL KEEP METRO JAX
NORTHWARD MOSTLY DRY TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPDATED THE TAFS
TO REMOVE MORNING VCSH WITH CONVECTION MOST LIKELY SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTN NEAR GNV. DRY AIR EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND REFINED VCTS AT GNV TO VCSH. COULD SEE
SOME WNW GUSTS MIDDAY BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS WITH RECENT HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS ONCE AGAIN WITH
PREVAILING NW WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS MORNING TRAILING THE FRONT
DECREASING TO SW THIS AFTN 10 KT OR LESS. COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS OVER THE AREA AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  94  70 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  92  75  88  76 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  93  70  91  73 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  76 /  20  20  10  10
GNV  94  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
OCF  94  70  94  71 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 291342
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
942 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...CONTINUED WARMTH BUT DRIER TODAY...

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF MARION COUNTY THIS
MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE NW. DOUGLAS GA
REPORTED A DEW PT OF 63 WITH JAX AT 70. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND THE 12Z JAX RAOB SHOWED STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION AT
600 MB AND ABOVE...WHICH WILL GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTION TODAY.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM BUT NOT QUITE AT HOT AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...WITH TEMPS ON TRACK TO WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO
LOW 90/NEAR 90 COAST UNDER A WARM WLY FLOW. AS TEMPS WARM FURTHER
THROUGH THE DAY...DRY AIR ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN. UPDATED WITH MIXING
TOOLS AND EXTRACTED DEW PTS IN THE MID 50S OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND
SE GA TO LOW 60S AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR OVER NE
FL...WITH LOW 70S STILL GENERALLY FROM GNV-SGJ SOUTHWARD. UPDATED
THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING PRECIP N OF GNV-SGJ. THE HRRR
INITIALIZED WELL WITH PRECIP THIS MORNING WEST OF CEDAR KEY...AND
THEN ADVERTISES THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN GENERALLY FROM GNV
TO SGJ SOUTHWARD AS WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BEST MOISTURE FOCUS
ACROSS THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN SOUTH OF JAX. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS...WHICH WILL KEEP METRO JAX
NORTHWARD MOSTLY DRY TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. UPDATED THE TAFS
TO REMOVE MORNING VCSH WITH CONVECTION MOST LIKELY SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTN NEAR GNV. DRY AIR EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN WHICH WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AND REFINED VCTS AT GNV TO VCSH. COULD SEE
SOME WNW GUSTS MIDDAY BETWEEN 15-20 KTS. TONIGHT COULD SEE SOME
FOG AND STRATUS WITH RECENT HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT.

&&

.MARINE...COMBINED NEAR AND OFFSHORE LEGS ONCE AGAIN WITH
PREVAILING NW WINDS 10-15 KTS THIS MORNING TRAILING THE FRONT
DECREASING TO SW THIS AFTN 10 KT OR LESS. COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT. NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS OVER THE AREA AND BEGINS TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE GULF
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  94  70 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  92  75  88  76 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  93  70  91  73 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  76 /  20  20  10  10
GNV  94  68  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
OCF  94  70  94  71 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER







000
FXUS62 KKEY 291302
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
900 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 800 AM
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP MID AND UPPER LONGWAVE
PATTERN FOR LATE IN JULY...WITH THE AXIS OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO JUST EAST OF GEORGIA FROM AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMES BAY. TO THE SOUTH OF
THAT...THERE IS AN ANALYZED ELONGATED EAST TO WEST MID AND UPPER
WARM CORE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE SITUATED FROM FAR WEST TEXAS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ALONG 28 NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 800 AM DETAIL A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE LENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM A COOL 996 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR QUEBEC
CITY. AS SUCH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS IS PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...BUT FAVORING LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE 12Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A SLIGHTLY DRYER THAN
AVERAGE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE TO 600 MB...WITH PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT ONLY 1.47
INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 800 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE KEYS
ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS...EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE UPPER KEYS WHERE KEY WEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG LOWER TO MID LEVEL CONFLUENT BOUNDARIES
POSITIONED UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER KEYS OVER FLORIDA BAY...HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS STRETCH OF ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING THUS FAR. THE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE KEY LARGO AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. C-MAN
STATIONS ARE RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS...EXCEPT OVER LAND WHERE RELIABLE SENSORS ARE ONLY RECORDING
WINDS NEAR 5 MPH OVER THE ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
FAIRLY DRY...WITH PWAT AROUND 1.50 INCHES...LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARIES
JUST UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER KEYS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN
ENOUGH DRIER AIR COULD MIX IN TO SHUT OFF THE SHOWERS. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT HOWEVER IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY FORM ALONG SEABREEZE OUTFLOW WHICH COULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE
UPPER KEYS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE SPLIT OFF
THE UPPER KEYS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ATTM...AND MAINTAINED
ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A
MORE WESTERLY LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR NO
MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL INCREASE A FEW KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE DOWNSTREAM OF
THE MAINLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING WATERS. OTHERWISE...NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY...MAINLY WEST WINDS AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. STEERING FLOW OF WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE
PRODUCTS AND A PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF THIS MORNING`S RAOB
SOUNDING INDICATE LAYERS OF DRY AIR AND INHIBITION WILL INHIBIT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH. RAINFALL
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................CLR
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............BF

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST











000
FXUS62 KKEY 291302
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
900 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 800 AM
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP MID AND UPPER LONGWAVE
PATTERN FOR LATE IN JULY...WITH THE AXIS OF AN EAST COAST TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO JUST EAST OF GEORGIA FROM AN UNSEASONABLY
CHILLY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMES BAY. TO THE SOUTH OF
THAT...THERE IS AN ANALYZED ELONGATED EAST TO WEST MID AND UPPER
WARM CORE ANTICYCLONIC RIDGE SITUATED FROM FAR WEST TEXAS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ALONG 28 NORTH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 800 AM DETAIL A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARDS THEN WESTWARDS TO JUST NORTH OF THE LENGTH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM A COOL 996 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR QUEBEC
CITY. AS SUCH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS IS PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...BUT FAVORING LIGHT TO GENTLE
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE 12Z SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A SLIGHTLY DRYER THAN
AVERAGE GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE
SURFACE TO 600 MB...WITH PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) AT ONLY 1.47
INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 800 AM...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE KEYS
ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS...EXCEPT PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE UPPER KEYS WHERE KEY WEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG LOWER TO MID LEVEL CONFLUENT BOUNDARIES
POSITIONED UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER KEYS OVER FLORIDA BAY...HAVE BEEN
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS STRETCH OF ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE
MORNING THUS FAR. THE MOST RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE KEY LARGO AREA.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS ARE
ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. C-MAN
STATIONS ARE RECORDING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS NEAR 10
KNOTS...EXCEPT OVER LAND WHERE RELIABLE SENSORS ARE ONLY RECORDING
WINDS NEAR 5 MPH OVER THE ISLANDS.

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY...ALTHOUGH MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
FAIRLY DRY...WITH PWAT AROUND 1.50 INCHES...LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARIES
JUST UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER KEYS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WHEN
ENOUGH DRIER AIR COULD MIX IN TO SHUT OFF THE SHOWERS. THE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT HOWEVER IS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY FORM ALONG SEABREEZE OUTFLOW WHICH COULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE
UPPER KEYS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HENCE HAVE SPLIT OFF
THE UPPER KEYS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY ATTM...AND MAINTAINED
ISOLATED POPS ELSEWHERE AS LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS AND A
MORE WESTERLY LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW IS NOT SUPPORTIVE FOR NO
MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL BECOME WEST
TO NORTHWEST ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL INCREASE A FEW KNOTS IN MAGNITUDE DOWNSTREAM OF
THE MAINLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND IMMEDIATE
SURROUNDING WATERS. OTHERWISE...NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TODAY...MAINLY WEST WINDS AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. STEERING FLOW OF WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE
PRODUCTS AND A PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF THIS MORNING`S RAOB
SOUNDING INDICATE LAYERS OF DRY AIR AND INHIBITION WILL INHIBIT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH. RAINFALL
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............DAF
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................CLR
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............BF

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST












000
FXUS62 KMFL 291152
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...

RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA

MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  77 /  50  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  92  79 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            93  79  92  79 /  40  20  60  50
NAPLES           90  80  90  78 /  30  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291152
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...

RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA

MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  77 /  50  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  92  79 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            93  79  92  79 /  40  20  60  50
NAPLES           90  80  90  78 /  30  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291152
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...

RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA

MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  77 /  50  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  92  79 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            93  79  92  79 /  40  20  60  50
NAPLES           90  80  90  78 /  30  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291152
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...

RIBBON OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WHICH NULLIFIED WIDESPREAD STORMS
THE PAST FEW DAYS...HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA THANKS
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY COOL AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST. THE DEEPER MOISTURE HAS ALREADY PRODUCED SHOWERS IN
THE GULF WATERS WITH THE WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW...SO BACKED UP THE
VCSH AT KAPF A FEW HOURS. LOOKING MORE LIKE A TYPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT WITH MORE STORMS NORTHERN
HALF. NEAR TERM MODELS SHOWING SE SEA BREEZE IN THEIR SURFACE
WINDS...SO SEA BREEZE ALONG WITH MEANDERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM STORMS FURTHER WEST...SHOULD PRODUCE MORE COVERAGE AT TAF
SITES...ESPECIALLY KFLL/KFXE/KPBI THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
TERMINALS MAY BE WORTHY OF A TEMPO GROUP THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA

MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  77 /  50  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  92  79 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            93  79  92  79 /  40  20  60  50
NAPLES           90  80  90  78 /  30  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KKEY 291145
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...TODAY...MAINLY WEST WINDS AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. STEERING FLOW OF WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE PRODUCTS
AND A PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF THIS MORNING`S RAOB SOUNDING
INDICATE LAYERS OF DRY AIR AND INHIBITION WILL INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

$$

AVIATION...CLR

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 291145
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
745 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...TODAY...MAINLY WEST WINDS AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. STEERING FLOW OF WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY ORIGIN IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TERMINALS. SATELLITE BASED MOISTURE PRODUCTS
AND A PRELIMINARY EXAMINATION OF THIS MORNING`S RAOB SOUNDING
INDICATE LAYERS OF DRY AIR AND INHIBITION WILL INHIBIT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE LEE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

&&

$$

AVIATION...CLR

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KJAX 290918
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...NOT AS HOT TODAY...

.CURRENTLY(5 AM)...WEAK FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SE GA TO THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH BROAD AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NE GULF
AND OFFSHORE OF THE NE FL WATERS NEAR AND AHEAD OF FRONT. RADAR
TRENDS HAVE SHOWED INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION CELLS OVER THE NE GULF
AND PARTS OF NE FL AS THE FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES SEWD
BUT SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS OCCURRED IN NE FL. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...CERTAINLY A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT INITIALLY
LOCATED FROM EXTREME SE GA TO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT
SEWD ALONG WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY ACROSS OUR SE ZONES WHERE MODELS DEPICT
PWATS AROUND THE 1.6 TO 2 INCH RANGE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE
IN A STEADY DECREASE IN MEAN 1000-500 MB RH VALUES (AND INSTABILITY)
THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP W-NW FLOW USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
S OF A JAX-GNV LINE WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NOW THROUGH
ABOUT 2 PM...AND THEN STEADILY DROPPING THEREAFTER AS AIRMASS DRIES
OUT. WHILE SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE REALIZED
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD ACROSS OUR SE ZONES DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF
ATLC SEA BREEZE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LACKING WITH
DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT TO POSSIBLY AROUND THE 64 TO 66 DEG RANGE NEAR
THE JAX METRO AREA AND PWATS OF ONLY 1.25 INCHES. WE HAVE NO POPS
TODAY FOR SE GA DUE TO MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THERE AS DEWPOINTS BOTTOM OUT TO UNSEASONABLE MID 50S
AROUND ALMA. HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT AS PRIOR DAYS...BUT STILL
AROUND 91-95 WITH HEAT INDICES FOR THE MOST PART AT OR BELOW 100.

TONIGHT...ISOLD LINGERING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FROM MARION TO
PUTNAM TO FLAGLER COUNTIES THEN QUICKLY FADE AFTER SUNSET. A MOSTLY
CLEAR TO BRIEFLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKY EXPECTED WITH MINS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER 60S IN SE GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO ABOUT
GNV AND NEAR 70-72 OVER REMINDER PARTS OF NE FL.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER OUR
REGION...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 1-1.25 INCHES...OR NEARLY
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATOLOGY. AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY...WHILE A WEAK SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND TO NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND INCREASES AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BOOST TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 AT THE COAST...BUT LOW HUMIDITY
WILL PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX CONCERNS. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND...WITH
A WEAK ONSHORE WIND KEEPING LOWS IN THE 70S FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN SITUATED TO OUR NORTH...WITH
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A WEAK ONSHORE WIND REGIME WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING TREND...BUT WE ARE EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THAT WILL
PROGRESS INLAND TOWARDS THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY BLOSSOM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURS NIGHT
AS ACTIVITY QUICKLY FADES TOWARDS SUNSET OVER LAND. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRI AND
SAT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE LOCATED JUST WEST OF OUR REGION.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH
A CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY PROMOTING ACTIVE
SEA BREEZES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EXPECT A RETURN TO A SEASONABLY WET
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH HIGH-END CHANCE DIURNAL POPS USED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST GRIDS. THIS PATTERN NORMALLY PROMOTES A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AS THIS ACTIVITY MEETS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE ST. JOHNS BASIN/I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE FL PENINSULA TOWARDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS RAIN CHANCES AND
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED AROUND GNV AND VQQ WITH VCSH
NEAR GNV AS WELL THROUGH MID MORNING. CONVECTION RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TOO MINIMAL TO HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH/VCTS TODAY...WITH BEST
CHANCE OF TSTMS NEAR GNV. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 12Z AND
WINDS WILL BE WLY AROUND 10 KT WITH LOWERING SPEEDS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS ATLC SEA BREEZE HELPS SHIFT WINDS TO SELY ALONG
THE COAST FOR CRG AND SSI. FOR TONIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WLY FLOW AROUND 15-20 KT EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME ONSHORE NEAR
THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME DIFFUSE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOP N OF THE AREA WED
AND THU WHILE WEAK LOW PRES FORMS OVER INLAND NRN FL. WINDS BECOME
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND THEN TURNING ONSHORE ON WED AND
THU WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING. ON FRI AND SAT...BROAD LOW PRES IN THE
NRN GULF AND WEAK HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE WILL PRODUCE GENERAL
S-SE FLOW. THIS LATTER TRANSITION COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR
EVENTUAL INCREASE IN MEAN SEA HEIGHTS AND ESE-SE SWELLS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW AND SMALL ESE SWELL OF ABOUT
1 FOOT WILL KEEP RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY LOW TODAY. WEDNESDAY...A
SIMILAR RISK...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF RIPS AS WINDS
TURN ENE DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST GA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AT INLAND LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 35-40 PERCENT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS RISING
INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S WILL CREATE ELEVATED DISPERSION INDICES
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THIS UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR
MASS WILL PLUNGE ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL ON WED...WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING TO 25-30 PERCENT IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA...AND 30-35 PERCENT IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 MPH AND FUEL MOISTURE/ERC
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE THUS NOT EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY MOISTEN ON THURS...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  94  70 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  92  75  88  76 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  93  70  91  73 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  76 /  30  20  10  10
GNV  94  68  93  70 /  30  10  10  10
OCF  94  70  94  71 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/NELSON






000
FXUS62 KJAX 290918
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...NOT AS HOT TODAY...

.CURRENTLY(5 AM)...WEAK FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SE GA TO THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO WITH BROAD AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE NE GULF
AND OFFSHORE OF THE NE FL WATERS NEAR AND AHEAD OF FRONT. RADAR
TRENDS HAVE SHOWED INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION CELLS OVER THE NE GULF
AND PARTS OF NE FL AS THE FRONT AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES SEWD
BUT SO FAR NO THUNDER HAS OCCURRED IN NE FL. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID
70S TO NEAR 80.

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...CERTAINLY A TRANSITION DAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT INITIALLY
LOCATED FROM EXTREME SE GA TO THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE WILL DRIFT
SEWD ALONG WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
HIGH THE FIRST PART OF TODAY ACROSS OUR SE ZONES WHERE MODELS DEPICT
PWATS AROUND THE 1.6 TO 2 INCH RANGE BUT GOOD AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE
IN A STEADY DECREASE IN MEAN 1000-500 MB RH VALUES (AND INSTABILITY)
THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP W-NW FLOW USHERS IN MUCH DRIER AIR. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
S OF A JAX-GNV LINE WITH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM NOW THROUGH
ABOUT 2 PM...AND THEN STEADILY DROPPING THEREAFTER AS AIRMASS DRIES
OUT. WHILE SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE REALIZED
FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD ACROSS OUR SE ZONES DUE TO DEVELOPMENT OF
ATLC SEA BREEZE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WILL BE LACKING WITH
DEWPOINTS MIXING OUT TO POSSIBLY AROUND THE 64 TO 66 DEG RANGE NEAR
THE JAX METRO AREA AND PWATS OF ONLY 1.25 INCHES. WE HAVE NO POPS
TODAY FOR SE GA DUE TO MUCH DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THERE AS DEWPOINTS BOTTOM OUT TO UNSEASONABLE MID 50S
AROUND ALMA. HIGH TEMPERATURES NOT AS HOT AS PRIOR DAYS...BUT STILL
AROUND 91-95 WITH HEAT INDICES FOR THE MOST PART AT OR BELOW 100.

TONIGHT...ISOLD LINGERING CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING FROM MARION TO
PUTNAM TO FLAGLER COUNTIES THEN QUICKLY FADE AFTER SUNSET. A MOSTLY
CLEAR TO BRIEFLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKY EXPECTED WITH MINS AT OR BELOW
NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER 60S IN SE GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY TO ABOUT
GNV AND NEAR 70-72 OVER REMINDER PARTS OF NE FL.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER OUR
REGION...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING PRECIPITABLE WATER
VAPOR (PWAT) VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 1-1.25 INCHES...OR NEARLY
2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW LATE JULY CLIMATOLOGY. AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
AND THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE VALLEY...WHILE A WEAK SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND TO NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AND INCREASES AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BOOST TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO
THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND AND NEAR 90 AT THE COAST...BUT LOW HUMIDITY
WILL PRECLUDE ANY HEAT INDEX CONCERNS. FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL ALLOW LOWS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 INLAND...WITH
A WEAK ONSHORE WIND KEEPING LOWS IN THE 70S FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN SITUATED TO OUR NORTH...WITH
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING PREVAILING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
UNITED STATES. A WEAK ONSHORE WIND REGIME WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL
MOISTENING TREND...BUT WE ARE EXPECTING ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THAT WILL
PROGRESS INLAND TOWARDS THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST.
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY BLOSSOM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURS NIGHT
AS ACTIVITY QUICKLY FADES TOWARDS SUNSET OVER LAND. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING WILL SHARPEN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON FRI AND
SAT...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE LOCATED JUST WEST OF OUR REGION.
THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH
A CONTINUED WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY PROMOTING ACTIVE
SEA BREEZES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. EXPECT A RETURN TO A SEASONABLY WET
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH HIGH-END CHANCE DIURNAL POPS USED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST GRIDS. THIS PATTERN NORMALLY PROMOTES A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH COVERAGE INCREASING AS THIS ACTIVITY MEETS THE ATLANTIC SEA
BREEZE NEAR THE ST. JOHNS BASIN/I-95 CORRIDOR DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO FILL LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS ATLANTIC RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE FL PENINSULA TOWARDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS RAIN CHANCES AND
AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER INCREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CIGS ANTICIPATED AROUND GNV AND VQQ WITH VCSH
NEAR GNV AS WELL THROUGH MID MORNING. CONVECTION RAIN CHANCES LOOK
TOO MINIMAL TO HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN VCSH/VCTS TODAY...WITH BEST
CHANCE OF TSTMS NEAR GNV. VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AFTER 12Z AND
WINDS WILL BE WLY AROUND 10 KT WITH LOWERING SPEEDS IN THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS ATLC SEA BREEZE HELPS SHIFT WINDS TO SELY ALONG
THE COAST FOR CRG AND SSI. FOR TONIGHT...VFR WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...WLY FLOW AROUND 15-20 KT EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME ONSHORE NEAR
THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME DIFFUSE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRES DEVELOP N OF THE AREA WED
AND THU WHILE WEAK LOW PRES FORMS OVER INLAND NRN FL. WINDS BECOME
VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT AND THEN TURNING ONSHORE ON WED AND
THU WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING. ON FRI AND SAT...BROAD LOW PRES IN THE
NRN GULF AND WEAK HIGH PRES TO THE N AND NE WILL PRODUCE GENERAL
S-SE FLOW. THIS LATTER TRANSITION COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR
EVENTUAL INCREASE IN MEAN SEA HEIGHTS AND ESE-SE SWELLS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: PREVAILING OFFSHORE FLOW AND SMALL ESE SWELL OF ABOUT
1 FOOT WILL KEEP RIP CURRENT ACTIVITY LOW TODAY. WEDNESDAY...A
SIMILAR RISK...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ENHANCED POTENTIAL OF RIPS AS WINDS
TURN ENE DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO SOUTHEAST GA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
FALLING TO NEAR 30 PERCENT AT INLAND LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON RH
VALUES WILL FALL TO 35-40 PERCENT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 10
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS RISING
INTO THE LOW AND MID 90S WILL CREATE ELEVATED DISPERSION INDICES
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. THIS UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR
MASS WILL PLUNGE ALL THE WAY INTO NORTH CENTRAL FL ON WED...WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES FALLING TO 25-30 PERCENT IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GA...AND 30-35 PERCENT IN INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL.
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 MPH AND FUEL MOISTURE/ERC
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE THUS NOT EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY MOISTEN ON THURS...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY FRI
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  65  94  70 /   0  10  10  10
SSI  92  75  88  76 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  93  70  91  73 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  91  74  89  76 /  30  20  10  10
GNV  94  68  93  70 /  30  10  10  10
OCF  94  70  94  71 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHASHY/NELSON





000
FXUS62 KTBW 290835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.NEAR TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER GREATER THAN 2
INCHES...AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT REACHING THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NATURE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE FURTHER
SOUTH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

.MID TERM (WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY)...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL NOT BE ANY COOLER DURING THE DAY...
BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUR RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS...BUT
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WE MAY SEE NO SHOWERS AT ALL OVER THE
NATURE COAST. WE WILL SEE A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE BEGINNING
THURSDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE NATURE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE STATE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES... BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING US INTO EASTERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR SIDE OF THE STATE...POTENTIALLY NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH CONVERGING SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
TAKING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL PUTS MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF I-75...SO MY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING IS A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. BOTH MODELS
RESPOND BY INDICATING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM RATHER THAN OUR TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE AFTERNOON STORMS DUE TO HEATING/SEA BREEZES...SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH AND
DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY DURING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME RATHER LIGHT WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DURING WEDNESDAY SOME DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR
LEADING TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING 35 PERCENT
FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO OTHER
FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  76 /  50  30  10   0
FMY  92  78  93  77 /  40  50  50  20
GIF  93  75  95  74 /  50  30  20  10
SRQ  91  79  92  76 /  50  40  30  10
BKV  93  71  94  67 /  50  20  10  10
SPG  90  80  92  79 /  50  30  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 290835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.NEAR TERM (TODAY-TONIGHT)...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. DEEP MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER GREATER THAN 2
INCHES...AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT REACHING THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE NATURE COAST OVERNIGHT WHILE FURTHER
SOUTH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE
COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 60S FAR NORTH TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST.

.MID TERM (WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY)...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL NOT BE ANY COOLER DURING THE DAY...
BUT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING. OUR RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS...BUT
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WHEN WE MAY SEE NO SHOWERS AT ALL OVER THE
NATURE COAST. WE WILL SEE A SLOW RETURN OF MOISTURE BEGINNING
THURSDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS EVERYWHERE
EXCEPT THE NATURE COAST WHERE THEY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENS/FILLS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE STATE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES... BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING US INTO EASTERLY FLOW
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER OUR SIDE OF THE STATE...POTENTIALLY NEAR
THE I-75 CORRIDOR WITH CONVERGING SEA BREEZES EACH AFTERNOON.
TAKING A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL PUTS MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO THE EAST OF I-75...SO MY FORECAST FOLLOWS
SUIT.

AN INTERESTING FEATURE IN THE MODELS THIS MORNING IS A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF ON MONDAY. BOTH MODELS
RESPOND BY INDICATING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.
SINCE THIS IS A SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM RATHER THAN OUR TYPICAL
MESO-SCALE AFTERNOON STORMS DUE TO HEATING/SEA BREEZES...SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL CAUSE
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. COULD ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING AS DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES SOUTH AND
DAYTIME HEATING GETS UNDERWAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY DURING TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS
AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
WEDNESDAY THEN BECOME RATHER LIGHT WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP OVER
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DURING WEDNESDAY SOME DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE AS FAR SOUTH AS ABOUT THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR
LEADING TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING 35 PERCENT
FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH NO OTHER
FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  91  78  92  76 /  50  30  10   0
FMY  92  78  93  77 /  40  50  50  20
GIF  93  75  95  74 /  50  30  20  10
SRQ  91  79  92  76 /  50  40  30  10
BKV  93  71  94  67 /  50  20  10  10
SPG  90  80  92  79 /  50  30  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON







000
FXUS62 KTAE 290818
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
418 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

After a busy Monday evening, conditions look much quieter today in
the wake of the cold front with drier air settling in over most of
the area. The front will still be north of the southeast big bend
region this morning with a few showers and thunderstorms still
possible ahead of it, but by this afternoon it should be through
even that area. High temperatures will still be seasonably warm
across the area, but much lower dewpoints will make it feel less
oppressive than in recent day.

&&


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Behind the squall line which moved through the region on Monday and
Sfc Cold Front which is pushing through today, extremely dry air for
this time of year will be building in from the NW today and tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. After a
recent string of very humid and uncomfortable nights, this dry air
will allow low temperatures to fall into the far more comfortable
lower to middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and
Wednesday night, with the potential for some record or near record
low temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or storm,
but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid to
upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period in the wake of a cold front with a drier airmass.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.

&&

.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 290818
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
418 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

After a busy Monday evening, conditions look much quieter today in
the wake of the cold front with drier air settling in over most of
the area. The front will still be north of the southeast big bend
region this morning with a few showers and thunderstorms still
possible ahead of it, but by this afternoon it should be through
even that area. High temperatures will still be seasonably warm
across the area, but much lower dewpoints will make it feel less
oppressive than in recent day.

&&


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Behind the squall line which moved through the region on Monday and
Sfc Cold Front which is pushing through today, extremely dry air for
this time of year will be building in from the NW today and tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. After a
recent string of very humid and uncomfortable nights, this dry air
will allow low temperatures to fall into the far more comfortable
lower to middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and
Wednesday night, with the potential for some record or near record
low temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or storm,
but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid to
upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period in the wake of a cold front with a drier airmass.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.

&&

.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 290818
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
418 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

After a busy Monday evening, conditions look much quieter today in
the wake of the cold front with drier air settling in over most of
the area. The front will still be north of the southeast big bend
region this morning with a few showers and thunderstorms still
possible ahead of it, but by this afternoon it should be through
even that area. High temperatures will still be seasonably warm
across the area, but much lower dewpoints will make it feel less
oppressive than in recent day.

&&


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Behind the squall line which moved through the region on Monday and
Sfc Cold Front which is pushing through today, extremely dry air for
this time of year will be building in from the NW today and tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. After a
recent string of very humid and uncomfortable nights, this dry air
will allow low temperatures to fall into the far more comfortable
lower to middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and
Wednesday night, with the potential for some record or near record
low temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or storm,
but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid to
upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period in the wake of a cold front with a drier airmass.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.

&&

.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 290818
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
418 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

After a busy Monday evening, conditions look much quieter today in
the wake of the cold front with drier air settling in over most of
the area. The front will still be north of the southeast big bend
region this morning with a few showers and thunderstorms still
possible ahead of it, but by this afternoon it should be through
even that area. High temperatures will still be seasonably warm
across the area, but much lower dewpoints will make it feel less
oppressive than in recent day.

&&


.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Behind the squall line which moved through the region on Monday and
Sfc Cold Front which is pushing through today, extremely dry air for
this time of year will be building in from the NW today and tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. After a
recent string of very humid and uncomfortable nights, this dry air
will allow low temperatures to fall into the far more comfortable
lower to middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and
Wednesday night, with the potential for some record or near record
low temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or storm,
but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid to
upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period in the wake of a cold front with a drier airmass.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.

&&

.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KMLB 290806
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
406 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PW VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES...
GENERATING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIALLY PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS UP
TO 50 PERCENT MOST AREAS WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV
GUIDANCE. OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LACK OF SEA
BREEZE...HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. HOWEVER THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE MORE SUNSHINE MAY BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK DOWN INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY DECREASING. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING WITH POPS RANGING
FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH OF ORLANDO TO 30 PERCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

WED-THU...SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER ENTIRE EASTERN U.S.
EVEN AS AN OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMARKABLY REACHES THE S
THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. FRONT WEAKENS AND ERODES BUT ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH
FOR TREASURE COAST AND VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ZONES NORTH OF
THIS AREA WILL REALIZE RARE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS FOR JULY AND
REDUCED SUMMERTIME RAIN CHANCES. IN FACT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF ORLANDO/CANAVERAL WILL CURB
POPS...AND TO LEVELS TOO LOW TO MENTION GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 4. FOR THU...SURFACE WIND FIELDS SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE BUT WITH AN ONSHORE AFTERNOON PUSH. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE
STILL GATHERED OVER S FL...BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES STILL BELOW NORMAL THU...BETTER TOWARD
TREASURE COAST. RATHER WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN LOW/MID 90S EACH DAY.

FRI-MON...EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
BEGINS TO DAMPEN SUN INTO MON. SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SFC PRESSURE FIELD
FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AS TRACE MARKERS OF OLD/DIFFUSE FRONT LINGER
EVIDENT BY SUBTLE TROUGHING AND NARROW BANDED MOISTURE ALL
LIFTING NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERLIES OPEN UP AND RE-ESTABLISH FOR THE
PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 90S...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM
ONCE SE FLOW BECOMES PREVALENT FOR THE WEEKEND. POPS NEAR NORMAL
WITH EMBEDDED SEA BREEZES WORKING INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN INCREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF
A FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PUSH EASTWARD MAINLY ACROSS AREAS FROM KISM/KMCO NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
VCSH/VCTS IN THE TAFS CURRENTLY BUT MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THE 12Z ISSUANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE
CONVECTION WILL START EARLIER.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP
A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR
LESS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE OF
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
WITH A FEW CONTAINING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS.

WED-FRI...OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER INLET FOR WED WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. NORTHWARD...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR WATERS SOUTH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND RELAXING WINDS NORTH. NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THU ALLOWING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
TO LOCAL WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. IMPROVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR FRI. SEAS 2-3 FEET...BUT 1 TO 2 FEET
NEARSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  93  75 /  50  20  10  10
MCO  93  75  95  75 /  50  30  20  20
MLB  93  75  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
VRB  93  74  92  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  92  74  95  76 /  50  20  10  10
SFB  93  76  95  77 /  50  20  20  10
ORL  93  76  95  78 /  50  30  20  20
FPR  93  75  91  73 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS








000
FXUS62 KMLB 290806
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
406 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...EASTERN U.S. TROUGH ALOFT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
DRIVING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PW VALUES UP TO 2 INCHES...
GENERATING GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIALLY PUSH EASTWARD
ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS UP
TO 50 PERCENT MOST AREAS WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE MAV
GUIDANCE. OFFSHORE FLOW REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE LACK OF SEA
BREEZE...HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW 90S. HOWEVER THOSE AREAS
THAT SEE MORE SUNSHINE MAY BE ABLE TO REACH INTO THE MID 90S...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

AS FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT...DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK DOWN INTO THE REGION WITH RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY DECREASING. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING WITH POPS RANGING
FROM 20 PERCENT NORTH OF ORLANDO TO 30 PERCENT FARTHER SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S.

WED-THU...SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER ENTIRE EASTERN U.S.
EVEN AS AN OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMARKABLY REACHES THE S
THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. FRONT WEAKENS AND ERODES BUT ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH
FOR TREASURE COAST AND VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ZONES NORTH OF
THIS AREA WILL REALIZE RARE POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS FOR JULY AND
REDUCED SUMMERTIME RAIN CHANCES. IN FACT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER DRYING NORTH OF ORLANDO/CANAVERAL WILL CURB
POPS...AND TO LEVELS TOO LOW TO MENTION GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 4. FOR THU...SURFACE WIND FIELDS SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE BUT WITH AN ONSHORE AFTERNOON PUSH. MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE
STILL GATHERED OVER S FL...BUT WITH SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES STILL BELOW NORMAL THU...BETTER TOWARD
TREASURE COAST. RATHER WARM WITH MAX TEMPS IN LOW/MID 90S EACH DAY.

FRI-MON...EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT
BEGINS TO DAMPEN SUN INTO MON. SOMEWHAT CONFUSED SFC PRESSURE FIELD
FOR THE DEEP SOUTH AS TRACE MARKERS OF OLD/DIFFUSE FRONT LINGER
EVIDENT BY SUBTLE TROUGHING AND NARROW BANDED MOISTURE ALL
LIFTING NORTH AS SOUTHEASTERLIES OPEN UP AND RE-ESTABLISH FOR THE
PENINSULA. MAX TEMPS IN LOW TO MID 90S...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM
ONCE SE FLOW BECOMES PREVALENT FOR THE WEEKEND. POPS NEAR NORMAL
WITH EMBEDDED SEA BREEZES WORKING INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL GIVE WAY TO TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN INCREASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS MOISTURE BUILDS AHEAD OF
A FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
PUSH EASTWARD MAINLY ACROSS AREAS FROM KISM/KMCO NORTHWARD THIS
MORNING AND THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS FRONT
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. HAVE
VCSH/VCTS IN THE TAFS CURRENTLY BUT MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR
THE 12Z ISSUANCE...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN TAF SITES WHERE
CONVECTION WILL START EARLIER.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP
A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WATERS. ELEVATED WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS OR
LESS OVER THE WATERS. SEAS UP TO 4 FEET POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE OF
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
WITH A FEW CONTAINING LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS.

WED-FRI...OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND JUPITER INLET FOR WED WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR WATERS SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. NORTHWARD...RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW FOR WATERS SOUTH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND RELAXING WINDS NORTH. NEARLY STALLED BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND ERODE ON THU ALLOWING AN ONSHORE COMPONENT
TO LOCAL WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. IMPROVED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR FRI. SEAS 2-3 FEET...BUT 1 TO 2 FEET
NEARSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  93  75  93  75 /  50  20  10  10
MCO  93  75  95  75 /  50  30  20  20
MLB  93  75  91  75 /  50  30  30  20
VRB  93  74  92  74 /  50  30  30  20
LEE  92  74  95  76 /  50  20  10  10
SFB  93  76  95  77 /  50  20  20  10
ORL  93  76  95  78 /  50  30  20  20
FPR  93  75  91  73 /  50  30  30  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS







000
FXUS62 KMFL 290737
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
337 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT DEEP INTO DIXIE IN JULY?! THAT`S WHAT
IS ON THE MAP! THE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN AL-GA
EXTENDING EAST TO OFF THE NC COAST. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY THEN POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE. DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS FRONT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MONTGOMERY, AL AND INTO THE 50S
ACROSS PART OF NORTH GA AND SC...INSANE FOR JULY! TO I AM SURE NO
ONE`S SURPRISE, NONE OF THIS DRY AIR WILL MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH,
SO SOUTH FL WILL REMAIN IN A TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AROUND 100F.

THE DRIER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH WAS ACROSS OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WILL BE ERODED AS MOISTENING OCCURS FROM THE NORTH. SW-W
WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WHICH
IS REACHING LEVELS WHERE SEA BREEZE FORMATION ON THE EAST COAST
COMES INTO QUESTION...BUT WITH STRONG HEATING AM THINKING A SEA
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT LEAST OVER BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE WHERE FLOW
WILL BE A TAD LIGHTER. HRRR DEVELOPS A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE
ENTIRE ATLANTIC COAST. AFTERNOON TSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
CONCENTRATE INTERIOR-EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN THE SW FLOW.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PWATS INCREASING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL THEN REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...LEADING TO THE
EXPECTATION OF TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL FROM SE TO
NW OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND (THIS IS NOT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WHICH NHC GIVES A LIKELY CHANCE OF
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THAT LAGS BEHIND THIS
INVERTED TROUGH AND IT`S JUST TOO EARLY TO SAY ANYTHING MORE
ABOUT THE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TC BUT WILL BE MONITORED). THE
INVERTED TROUGH THIS WEEKEND WOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE SHOWER
AND TSTORM ACTIVITY. SO STORMY AFTERNOON`S LIE AHEAD. H5 TEMPS
NEVER COOL DRAMATICALLY SO IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...NO CONCERNS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS GENERALLY AT 2 FT OR LESS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND
NEAR AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND
PROBABLY INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH
ALL TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  77 /  50  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  92  79 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            93  79  92  79 /  40  20  60  50
NAPLES           90  80  90  78 /  30  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD



000
FXUS62 KKEY 290700
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
305 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION
ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LACK OF APPARENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PROMPT RAIN
CHANCES NEAR OR ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE GREATEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
29TH/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. AFTER DAYBREAK
HOWEVER...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH. RAINFALL
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  92 83 91 82 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON  93 82 93 81 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 290700
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
305 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION
ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE VARIABLE AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY. ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. LACK OF APPARENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL PROMPT RAIN
CHANCES NEAR OR ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT STATISTICS TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE GREATEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
29TH/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...NOCTURNAL SHOWERS MAY CREATE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. AFTER DAYBREAK
HOWEVER...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1996...1.23 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 29TH. RAINFALL
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  92 83 91 82 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON  93 82 93 81 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 290546
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND PROBABLY INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY. THEREFORE UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO KEEP THE
AREA DRY THROUGH 06Z. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW
SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WSW FLOW. 5-10 KT SE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS (SE WINDS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z FOR THE TERMINALS SOUTH OF PBI). THE LATEST
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER
TUESDAY...MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE AND PALM BEACH REGION. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE
THROUGH THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND THE PBI TERMINAL
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS FLL. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COUPLE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD ALSO GET INTO
BROWARD OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR/AFTER 00Z.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND EXTREME WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA...AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LAKE REGION. SO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING FROM NAPLES
NORTHWARD AND EAST TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 100-108 DEGREES AGAIN TUESDAY. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE EAST
COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL BE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WELL...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN LONGER.

MARINE...
MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  77  90  77 /  40  20  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  90  78 /  40  20  60  40
MIAMI            94  79  89  78 /  30  20  60  40
NAPLES           90  79  90  77 /  20  50  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 290546
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND PROBABLY INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY. DEEP MOISTURE MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 17-19Z WITH ALL
TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS IN THAT TIME FRAME. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY ALTHOUGH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KPBI...COULD HAVE A SEA BREEZE STARTING LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AROUND 19Z WITH SSE WINDS AROUND 9 KNOTS.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY. THEREFORE UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO KEEP THE
AREA DRY THROUGH 06Z. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW
SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER 06Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WSW FLOW. 5-10 KT SE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS (SE WINDS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z FOR THE TERMINALS SOUTH OF PBI). THE LATEST
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER
TUESDAY...MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE AND PALM BEACH REGION. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE
THROUGH THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND THE PBI TERMINAL
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS FLL. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COUPLE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD ALSO GET INTO
BROWARD OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR/AFTER 00Z.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND EXTREME WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA...AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LAKE REGION. SO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING FROM NAPLES
NORTHWARD AND EAST TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 100-108 DEGREES AGAIN TUESDAY. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE EAST
COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL BE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WELL...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN LONGER.

MARINE...
MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  77  90  77 /  40  20  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  90  78 /  40  20  60  40
MIAMI            94  79  89  78 /  30  20  60  40
NAPLES           90  79  90  77 /  20  50  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KKEY 290223
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SLACK FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO
THE TAIL END OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIPPING INTO FLORIDA. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VERY WEAK FLOW AND SOME WARM LAYERS ALOFT HAVE
KEPT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WAS SUBDUED THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SLACK FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MANY
ISLAND LOCATIONS WILL GO CALM AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RADIATE
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. SLACK FLOW...SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
NOT EXACTLY AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE
OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE TO SHAVE TEMPS AND POPS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE SLIM TO NONE.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/29TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290223
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1023 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SLACK FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS DUE TO
THE TAIL END OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIPPING INTO FLORIDA. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VERY WEAK FLOW AND SOME WARM LAYERS ALOFT HAVE
KEPT SHOWER ACTIVITY AT A MINIMUM THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN ACTIVITY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WAS SUBDUED THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE MID 80S WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SLACK FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MANY
ISLAND LOCATIONS WILL GO CALM AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RADIATE
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. SLACK FLOW...SOME DRY AIR ALOFT...AND
NOT EXACTLY AMPLE INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES SLIM TO NONE
OVERNIGHT. WILL UPDATE TO SHAVE TEMPS AND POPS IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS WATERS OVERNIGHT DUE TO
A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE SLIM TO NONE.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/29TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KTBW 290119
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
919 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE CAROLINAS WESTWARD THROUGH
GULF COASTAL STATES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED THROUGH THE FL STRAITS...BETWEEN THE KEYS AND
CUBA...INTO THE GULF. THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHWARD OVER
NIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN FL BY DAYBREAK...WITH A RATHER ROBUST AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FROM PINELLAS TO LEE AND HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ON SOME
OF THE COASTAL WATERS...COVERED MORE THOROUGHLY IN THE MARINE
SECTION. THE VERY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOW JUST ABOUT
GONE HOWEVER THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
RE-GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NATURE COAST THAT SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE GULF
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. FORECASTS GENERALLY ON TRACK
BUT HAVE MAKE SOME MINOR TIMING/COVERAGE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE
REMAINING EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 30/00Z...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
ISOLD GULF SHRA BEGIN TO IMPACT TERMINALS AFTER 06Z-09Z...WITH VCTS
AFT 12Z-14Z. BRIEF MVFR/LCL IFR PSBL MAINLY AFT 12Z. PREVAILING
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING SOUTH...THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND BUILD THE SEAS TO A MODERATE CHOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
WHEN OPERATING OFF SHORE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER
HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...74/WYNN










000
FXUS62 KTBW 290119
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
919 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION (REST OF TONIGHT)...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM THE CAROLINAS WESTWARD THROUGH
GULF COASTAL STATES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED THROUGH THE FL STRAITS...BETWEEN THE KEYS AND
CUBA...INTO THE GULF. THE BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHWARD OVER
NIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN FL BY DAYBREAK...WITH A RATHER ROBUST AND
INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS
FLOW IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FROM PINELLAS TO LEE AND HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ON SOME
OF THE COASTAL WATERS...COVERED MORE THOROUGHLY IN THE MARINE
SECTION. THE VERY LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS NOW JUST ABOUT
GONE HOWEVER THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL
RE-GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LATE EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NATURE COAST THAT SPREAD SOUTH OVER THE GULF
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNRISE. FORECASTS GENERALLY ON TRACK
BUT HAVE MAKE SOME MINOR TIMING/COVERAGE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE
REMAINING EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIL 30/00Z...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
ISOLD GULF SHRA BEGIN TO IMPACT TERMINALS AFTER 06Z-09Z...WITH VCTS
AFT 12Z-14Z. BRIEF MVFR/LCL IFR PSBL MAINLY AFT 12Z. PREVAILING
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING SOUTH...THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND BUILD THE SEAS TO A MODERATE CHOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
WHEN OPERATING OFF SHORE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER
HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...74/WYNN











000
FXUS62 KTAE 290116
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
916 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
During Monday evening, a large upper trough anchored itself over
the ERN most U.S. At the surface, cold front from low off New
England SSW across Srn most AL/GA. Earlier, ahead of front and
across local area, ample low level moisture aided by strong
heating combined with a relatively unstable airmass
(thermodynamics quite favorable but kinematics only moderately
favorable) but augmented by added forcing from upward vertical
motion and vertical shear on Srn periphery of upper trough. Add
forcing from ESE-WSW oriented cold front and some mid-level dry
air and we had the ingredients for local enhancement and the
development of severe storms in the form of cell mergers or linear
segments especially near seabreeze boundaries. With roughly WNW
uni-directional flow, storms moved ESE. Primary impacts were from
damaging winds/downbursts plus small hail and intense lightning.
By 9 PM EDT, the focus was across the Big Bend but overall storms
were weakening due to the sheared out pre-frontal dynamics and
nocturnal stabilization as the cold front pushed further Swd
leaving generally isolated convection north of FL border and sct-
nmrs convection over FL. A strong storm cant be ruled out there
but the severe threat appears to have ended.

HI RES guidance indicates that storms across Florida should diminish
and largely end after 04z. Front should reach coastal area before
sunrise. Will go with 0-60% POPs thru 03z highest across coastal
FL, then 10-40% thru 12z highest over waters. In its wake, cooler
and drier air will begin spreading SEWD into the region with
overnight lows north of the Florida border possibly dropping into
the upper 60s with clouds and some winds translating to low to mid
70s over N FL.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions
remain possible into 1030 PM EDT and around midnight EDT ahead of
a cold front over TLH and ECP respectively. Otherwise, in the
wake of cold front...expect VFR conditions rest of the perid.

&&

.Prev Discussion [241 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a
Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push
south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the
day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in
overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records.
For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with
mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for
Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or
two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will
range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s.

Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For
example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are:

July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.


.Marine...
Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise
caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north.
Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually
diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds
Wednesday through the end of the week.


.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated.


.Hydrology...
Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated
rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals
aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen
any flood concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  66  93  66 /  60  10   0  10   0
Panama City   75  92  72  90  72 /  60  10   0  10   0
Dothan        70  91  66  90  65 /  40   0   0  10   0
Albany        69  91  65  91  66 /  40   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      71  92  64  92  67 /  60  10   0  10   0
Cross City    75  93  68  94  69 /  50  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  91  71  90  73 /  50  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 290116
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
916 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
During Monday evening, a large upper trough anchored itself over
the ERN most U.S. At the surface, cold front from low off New
England SSW across Srn most AL/GA. Earlier, ahead of front and
across local area, ample low level moisture aided by strong
heating combined with a relatively unstable airmass
(thermodynamics quite favorable but kinematics only moderately
favorable) but augmented by added forcing from upward vertical
motion and vertical shear on Srn periphery of upper trough. Add
forcing from ESE-WSW oriented cold front and some mid-level dry
air and we had the ingredients for local enhancement and the
development of severe storms in the form of cell mergers or linear
segments especially near seabreeze boundaries. With roughly WNW
uni-directional flow, storms moved ESE. Primary impacts were from
damaging winds/downbursts plus small hail and intense lightning.
By 9 PM EDT, the focus was across the Big Bend but overall storms
were weakening due to the sheared out pre-frontal dynamics and
nocturnal stabilization as the cold front pushed further Swd
leaving generally isolated convection north of FL border and sct-
nmrs convection over FL. A strong storm cant be ruled out there
but the severe threat appears to have ended.

HI RES guidance indicates that storms across Florida should diminish
and largely end after 04z. Front should reach coastal area before
sunrise. Will go with 0-60% POPs thru 03z highest across coastal
FL, then 10-40% thru 12z highest over waters. In its wake, cooler
and drier air will begin spreading SEWD into the region with
overnight lows north of the Florida border possibly dropping into
the upper 60s with clouds and some winds translating to low to mid
70s over N FL.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Wednesday]...Thunderstorms with MVFR conditions
remain possible into 1030 PM EDT and around midnight EDT ahead of
a cold front over TLH and ECP respectively. Otherwise, in the
wake of cold front...expect VFR conditions rest of the perid.

&&

.Prev Discussion [241 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a
Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push
south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the
day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in
overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records.
For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with
mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for
Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or
two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will
range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s.

Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For
example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are:

July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.


.Marine...
Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise
caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north.
Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually
diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds
Wednesday through the end of the week.


.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated.


.Hydrology...
Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated
rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals
aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen
any flood concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  66  93  66 /  60  10   0  10   0
Panama City   75  92  72  90  72 /  60  10   0  10   0
Dothan        70  91  66  90  65 /  40   0   0  10   0
Albany        69  91  65  91  66 /  40   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      71  92  64  92  67 /  60  10   0  10   0
Cross City    75  93  68  94  69 /  50  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  91  71  90  73 /  50  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KJAX 290104
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH...JUST NORTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER MID-EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE
DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE
SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY CONTINUES CLOSE
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERIOR SE GA TO JUST WEST
OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
ACTIVITY DECREASING A LITTLE...BUT AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN SE GA THIS EVENING MOVING INTO NORTHERN FL BY
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO HANG UP. WILL USE ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST OF NE FL LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE LATE SOUTH OF JAX AS THE BOUNDARY
HANGS UP. PRECIP WILL END ACROSS MOST OF SE GA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTH. GIVEN SOME RESIDUAL BULK
LAYER SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SE GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. CLOUDS
AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT.
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS TONIGHT WILL
BE ISOLATED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL BE AT KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE CAUTION FOR THE OUTER LEGS
WITH 15 KT NEARSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  65  93 /  30  10  10  10
SSI  76  91  74  89 /  30  10  10  10
JAX  75  92  71  92 /  20  20  10  10
SGJ  77  91  74  90 /  30  40  20  10
GNV  75  92  69  93 /  30  40  20  10
OCF  75  92  71  94 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALKER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 290104
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
904 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH...JUST NORTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER MID-EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE
DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...THUS HAVE CANCELLED THE
SEVERE TSTM WATCH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY CONTINUES CLOSE
TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERIOR SE GA TO JUST WEST
OF THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW
ACTIVITY DECREASING A LITTLE...BUT AT LEAST SOME ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE IN SE GA THIS EVENING MOVING INTO NORTHERN FL BY
THE OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO HANG UP. WILL USE ISOLATED
TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST OF NE FL LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE LATE SOUTH OF JAX AS THE BOUNDARY
HANGS UP. PRECIP WILL END ACROSS MOST OF SE GA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE SOUTH. GIVEN SOME RESIDUAL BULK
LAYER SHEAR...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SE GA INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. CLOUDS
AND SOME WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY TONIGHT.
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS TONIGHT WILL
BE ISOLATED.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THEREFORE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL BE AT KGNV.

&&

.MARINE...
SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. WILL CONTINUE THE CAUTION FOR THE OUTER LEGS
WITH 15 KT NEARSHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  65  93 /  30  10  10  10
SSI  76  91  74  89 /  30  10  10  10
JAX  75  92  71  92 /  20  20  10  10
SGJ  77  91  74  90 /  30  40  20  10
GNV  75  92  69  93 /  30  40  20  10
OCF  75  92  71  94 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/STRUBLE/WALKER






000
FXUS62 KMFL 290044
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
844 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE NOW
DIMINISHED ACROSS THE AREA GIVING WAY TO A PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY. THEREFORE UPDATED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO KEEP THE
AREA DRY THROUGH 06Z. SHORT RANGE MODELS DO INDICATE A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK TOMORROW
SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WSW FLOW. 5-10 KT SE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS (SE WINDS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z FOR THE TERMINALS SOUTH OF PBI). THE LATEST
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER
TUESDAY...MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE AND PALM BEACH REGION. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE
THROUGH THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND THE PBI TERMINAL
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS FLL. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COUPLE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD ALSO GET INTO
BROWARD OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR/AFTER 00Z.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND EXTREME WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA...AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LAKE REGION. SO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING FROM NAPLES
NORTHWARD AND EAST TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 100-108 DEGREES AGAIN TUESDAY. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE EAST
COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL BE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WELL...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN LONGER.

MARINE...
MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  93  77  90 /  10  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  90 /  10  40  20  60
MIAMI            80  94  79  89 /  10  30  20  60
NAPLES           80  90  79  90 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...85/AG



000
FXUS62 KMFL 290004
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT WSW FLOW. 5-10 KT SE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING PERIODS FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS (SE WINDS
BEGINNING AROUND 20Z FOR THE TERMINALS SOUTH OF PBI). THE LATEST
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER
TUESDAY...MAINLY AROUND THE LAKE AND PALM BEACH REGION. THIS
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE
THROUGH THE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND THE PBI TERMINAL
AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS FLL. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COUPLE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD ALSO GET INTO
BROWARD OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR/AFTER 00Z.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND EXTREME WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA...AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LAKE REGION. SO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING FROM NAPLES
NORTHWARD AND EAST TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 100-108 DEGREES AGAIN TUESDAY. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE EAST
COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL BE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WELL...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN LONGER.

AVIATION...
STORMS VERY LIMITED TODAY BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER STORMS NORTH OF KAPF DIED BEFORE CROSSING INTO
PALM BEACH COUNTY. BASED ON TRENDS...VCTS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED
FROM THE KPBI TAF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY
RULE OUT STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD COUNTIES LATE DAY. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP THIS PM SHOULD
DIE QUICKLY TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS BACK ON THE INCREASE
TOMORROW....HOWEVER MODELS/GUIDANCE HAVE HAD A WET BIAS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND MAY BE ONCE AGAIN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ACTIVITY.

MARINE...
MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  93  77  90 /  10  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  90 /  10  40  20  60
MIAMI            80  94  79  89 /  10  30  20  60
NAPLES           80  90  79  90 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KTBW 282354
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
754 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
TIL 30/00Z...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
ISOLD GULF SHRA BEGIN TO IMPACT TERMINALS AFTER 06Z-09Z...WITH VCTS
AFT 12Z-14Z. BRIEF MVFR/LCL IFR PSBL MAINLY AFT 12Z. PREVAILING
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS
WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA/ALABAMA AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAIN
SHORT TERM CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND RAINFALL TRENDS ONCE AGAIN.

THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NATURE
COAST ON TUESDAY. INITIALLY...EXPECT THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT TYPICALLY DOES. LATER
TONIGHT AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND THE FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NATURE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP
OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FIZZING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT
SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT BY THE WEEKEND THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...ON THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTH...THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS AND BUILD THE SEAS TO A MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING
OFF SHORE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  92  78  92 /  40  40  30  10
FMY  78  93  76  92 /  20  40  50  40
GIF  77  93  75  94 /  10  40  30  20
SRQ  83  92  78  91 /  40  40  40  20
BKV  76  93  71  94 /  40  50  30  10
SPG  83  91  78  91 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/RUDE

PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA









000
FXUS62 KTBW 282354
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
754 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...
TIL 30/00Z...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
ISOLD GULF SHRA BEGIN TO IMPACT TERMINALS AFTER 06Z-09Z...WITH VCTS
AFT 12Z-14Z. BRIEF MVFR/LCL IFR PSBL MAINLY AFT 12Z. PREVAILING
WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS
WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA/ALABAMA AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAIN
SHORT TERM CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND RAINFALL TRENDS ONCE AGAIN.

THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NATURE
COAST ON TUESDAY. INITIALLY...EXPECT THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT TYPICALLY DOES. LATER
TONIGHT AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND THE FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NATURE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP
OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FIZZING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT
SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT BY THE WEEKEND THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...ON THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTH...THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS AND BUILD THE SEAS TO A MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING
OFF SHORE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  92  78  92 /  40  40  30  10
FMY  78  93  76  92 /  20  40  50  40
GIF  77  93  75  94 /  10  40  30  20
SRQ  83  92  78  91 /  40  40  40  20
BKV  76  93  71  94 /  40  50  30  10
SPG  83  91  78  91 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...09/RUDE

PREV DISCUSSION
SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA










000
FXUS62 KTBW 282047 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
441 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS
WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA/ALABAMA AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAIN
SHORT TERM CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND RAINFALL TRENDS ONCE AGAIN.

THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NATURE
COAST ON TUESDAY. INITIALLY...EXPECT THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT TYPICALLY DOES. LATER
TONIGHT AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND THE FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NATURE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP
OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

.MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FIZZING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT
SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT BY THE WEEKEND THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...ON THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPORARY VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA
AND MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTH...THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS AND BUILD THE SEAS TO A MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING
OFF SHORE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  92  78  92 /  40  40  30  10
FMY  78  93  76  92 /  20  40  50  40
GIF  77  93  75  94 /  10  40  30  20
SRQ  83  92  78  91 /  40  40  40  20
BKV  76  93  71  94 /  40  50  30  10
SPG  83  91  78  91 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA








000
FXUS62 KTBW 282047 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
441 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS
WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA/ALABAMA AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAIN
SHORT TERM CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND RAINFALL TRENDS ONCE AGAIN.

THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NATURE
COAST ON TUESDAY. INITIALLY...EXPECT THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT TYPICALLY DOES. LATER
TONIGHT AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND THE FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NATURE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP
OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

.MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FIZZING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT
SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT BY THE WEEKEND THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...ON THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPORARY VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA
AND MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTH...THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS AND BUILD THE SEAS TO A MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING
OFF SHORE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  92  78  92 /  40  40  30  10
FMY  78  93  76  92 /  20  40  50  40
GIF  77  93  75  94 /  10  40  30  20
SRQ  83  92  78  91 /  40  40  40  20
BKV  76  93  71  94 /  40  50  30  10
SPG  83  91  78  91 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA








000
FXUS62 KTBW 282047 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
441 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS
WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA/ALABAMA AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAIN
SHORT TERM CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND RAINFALL TRENDS ONCE AGAIN.

THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NATURE
COAST ON TUESDAY. INITIALLY...EXPECT THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT TYPICALLY DOES. LATER
TONIGHT AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND THE FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NATURE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP
OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

.MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FIZZING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT
SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT BY THE WEEKEND THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...ON THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPORARY VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA
AND MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTH...THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS AND BUILD THE SEAS TO A MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING
OFF SHORE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  92  78  92 /  40  40  30  10
FMY  78  93  76  92 /  20  40  50  40
GIF  77  93  75  94 /  10  40  30  20
SRQ  83  92  78  91 /  40  40  40  20
BKV  76  93  71  94 /  40  50  30  10
SPG  83  91  78  91 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA








000
FXUS62 KTBW 282047 CCA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
441 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS
WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA/ALABAMA AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAIN
SHORT TERM CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND RAINFALL TRENDS ONCE AGAIN.

THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NATURE
COAST ON TUESDAY. INITIALLY...EXPECT THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT TYPICALLY DOES. LATER
TONIGHT AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND THE FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NATURE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP
OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

.MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FIZZING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT
SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT BY THE WEEKEND THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...ON THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPORARY VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA
AND MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTH...THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS AND BUILD THE SEAS TO A MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING
OFF SHORE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  92  78  92 /  40  40  30  10
FMY  78  93  76  92 /  20  40  50  40
GIF  77  93  75  94 /  10  40  30  20
SRQ  83  92  78  91 /  40  40  40  20
BKV  76  93  71  94 /  40  50  30  10
SPG  83  91  78  91 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA








000
FXUS62 KMLB 281945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT... LARGER SYNOPTIC VIEW SHOWS UNUSUAL JULY
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH ALREADY SLIDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. AS
EXPECTED...CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA HAS BEEN WELL
BELOW WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A FEW STORMS LINGERING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PERHAPS SOME
ACTIVITY FROM NORTH FLORIDA BRUSHING N LAKE/VOLUSIA AROUND SUNSET.
WITH LITTLE CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER AND NO SEA
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AND WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PLACE HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 100-105
RANGE...UNCOMFORTABLE...BUT NOT TOO UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK FROM
THE GULF ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY.

TUESDAY...EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN GIVING ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE FRONT
BRINGING A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING MOST OF
THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH TIME ALONG THE FRONT...AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING. POPS 50
PERCENT ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO NORTH AND 40 PERCENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LOW 90S.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT ON HAVING A PROPER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND BRINGING IN A NOTABLE DRY AIR PUSH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EVEN
AT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP
FROM VOLUSIA-ORLANDO NORTHWARDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE VOLUSIA COAST AS
DEVELOPING E-NE FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

FURTHER SOUTH...BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY WITH POPS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
BREVARD/OSCEOLA TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THU-SUN...CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY TO REACH S END OF THE PENINSULA FOR
THU AND FRI AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS AND ERODES. BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE LOWER TREASURE COAST IN PROXIMITY. OTHERWISE...BELOW
NORMAL POPS THU GRADUALLY INCREASING FRI INTO WEEKEND TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL
KEEP THINGS INTERESTING AND ATYPICAL. HOWEVER...LOCAL LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SHOULD SLACKEN TO ALLOW LOCAL CIRCULATIONS TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE GOVERNOR.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS REGION THROUGH 23Z. A FEW STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30KTS. PREVAILING VFR
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO N FLORIDA...COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA
MOVING IN FROM GULF COAST AFFECTING KLEE AND ORLANDO SITES AS
EARLY AS 29/12Z. OTHERWISE...UNUSUAL JULY FRONT WILL BRING SCT-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA FROM THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TONIGHT. WILL MENTION EXERCISE
CAUTION IN THESE AREAS FOR TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

PREVAILING 10-15KTS SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON TUES. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT
OFFSHORE INCREASING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUES AS SOME LONGER SWELL WORKS ITS WAY INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...OUT OF SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OR SO AND S-SW FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE INLET. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. SEAS 2-3FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  90  75  92 /  20  50  30  10
MCO  77  92  75  94 /  10  50  30  10
MLB  76  91  74  91 /  20  40  40  20
VRB  76  93  74  92 /  20  40  40  40
LEE  78  93  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
SFB  78  92  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
ORL  78  92  78  94 /  10  50  30  10
FPR  76  92  73  91 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....LASCODY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 281945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT... LARGER SYNOPTIC VIEW SHOWS UNUSUAL JULY
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH ALREADY SLIDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. AS
EXPECTED...CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA HAS BEEN WELL
BELOW WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A FEW STORMS LINGERING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PERHAPS SOME
ACTIVITY FROM NORTH FLORIDA BRUSHING N LAKE/VOLUSIA AROUND SUNSET.
WITH LITTLE CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER AND NO SEA
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AND WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PLACE HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 100-105
RANGE...UNCOMFORTABLE...BUT NOT TOO UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK FROM
THE GULF ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY.

TUESDAY...EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN GIVING ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE FRONT
BRINGING A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING MOST OF
THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH TIME ALONG THE FRONT...AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING. POPS 50
PERCENT ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO NORTH AND 40 PERCENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LOW 90S.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT ON HAVING A PROPER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND BRINGING IN A NOTABLE DRY AIR PUSH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EVEN
AT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP
FROM VOLUSIA-ORLANDO NORTHWARDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE VOLUSIA COAST AS
DEVELOPING E-NE FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

FURTHER SOUTH...BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY WITH POPS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
BREVARD/OSCEOLA TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THU-SUN...CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY TO REACH S END OF THE PENINSULA FOR
THU AND FRI AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS AND ERODES. BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE LOWER TREASURE COAST IN PROXIMITY. OTHERWISE...BELOW
NORMAL POPS THU GRADUALLY INCREASING FRI INTO WEEKEND TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL
KEEP THINGS INTERESTING AND ATYPICAL. HOWEVER...LOCAL LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SHOULD SLACKEN TO ALLOW LOCAL CIRCULATIONS TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE GOVERNOR.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS REGION THROUGH 23Z. A FEW STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30KTS. PREVAILING VFR
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO N FLORIDA...COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA
MOVING IN FROM GULF COAST AFFECTING KLEE AND ORLANDO SITES AS
EARLY AS 29/12Z. OTHERWISE...UNUSUAL JULY FRONT WILL BRING SCT-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA FROM THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TONIGHT. WILL MENTION EXERCISE
CAUTION IN THESE AREAS FOR TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

PREVAILING 10-15KTS SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON TUES. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT
OFFSHORE INCREASING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUES AS SOME LONGER SWELL WORKS ITS WAY INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...OUT OF SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OR SO AND S-SW FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE INLET. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. SEAS 2-3FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  90  75  92 /  20  50  30  10
MCO  77  92  75  94 /  10  50  30  10
MLB  76  91  74  91 /  20  40  40  20
VRB  76  93  74  92 /  20  40  40  40
LEE  78  93  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
SFB  78  92  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
ORL  78  92  78  94 /  10  50  30  10
FPR  76  92  73  91 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....LASCODY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 281945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT... LARGER SYNOPTIC VIEW SHOWS UNUSUAL JULY
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH ALREADY SLIDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. AS
EXPECTED...CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA HAS BEEN WELL
BELOW WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A FEW STORMS LINGERING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PERHAPS SOME
ACTIVITY FROM NORTH FLORIDA BRUSHING N LAKE/VOLUSIA AROUND SUNSET.
WITH LITTLE CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER AND NO SEA
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AND WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PLACE HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 100-105
RANGE...UNCOMFORTABLE...BUT NOT TOO UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK FROM
THE GULF ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY.

TUESDAY...EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN GIVING ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE FRONT
BRINGING A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING MOST OF
THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH TIME ALONG THE FRONT...AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING. POPS 50
PERCENT ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO NORTH AND 40 PERCENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LOW 90S.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT ON HAVING A PROPER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND BRINGING IN A NOTABLE DRY AIR PUSH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EVEN
AT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP
FROM VOLUSIA-ORLANDO NORTHWARDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE VOLUSIA COAST AS
DEVELOPING E-NE FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

FURTHER SOUTH...BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY WITH POPS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
BREVARD/OSCEOLA TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THU-SUN...CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY TO REACH S END OF THE PENINSULA FOR
THU AND FRI AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS AND ERODES. BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE LOWER TREASURE COAST IN PROXIMITY. OTHERWISE...BELOW
NORMAL POPS THU GRADUALLY INCREASING FRI INTO WEEKEND TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL
KEEP THINGS INTERESTING AND ATYPICAL. HOWEVER...LOCAL LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SHOULD SLACKEN TO ALLOW LOCAL CIRCULATIONS TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE GOVERNOR.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS REGION THROUGH 23Z. A FEW STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30KTS. PREVAILING VFR
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO N FLORIDA...COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA
MOVING IN FROM GULF COAST AFFECTING KLEE AND ORLANDO SITES AS
EARLY AS 29/12Z. OTHERWISE...UNUSUAL JULY FRONT WILL BRING SCT-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA FROM THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TONIGHT. WILL MENTION EXERCISE
CAUTION IN THESE AREAS FOR TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

PREVAILING 10-15KTS SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON TUES. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT
OFFSHORE INCREASING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUES AS SOME LONGER SWELL WORKS ITS WAY INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...OUT OF SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OR SO AND S-SW FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE INLET. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. SEAS 2-3FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  90  75  92 /  20  50  30  10
MCO  77  92  75  94 /  10  50  30  10
MLB  76  91  74  91 /  20  40  40  20
VRB  76  93  74  92 /  20  40  40  40
LEE  78  93  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
SFB  78  92  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
ORL  78  92  78  94 /  10  50  30  10
FPR  76  92  73  91 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....LASCODY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 281945
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT... LARGER SYNOPTIC VIEW SHOWS UNUSUAL JULY
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH ALREADY SLIDING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. AS
EXPECTED...CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA HAS BEEN WELL
BELOW WHAT WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACKING QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT PATTERN THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH A FEW STORMS LINGERING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PERHAPS SOME
ACTIVITY FROM NORTH FLORIDA BRUSHING N LAKE/VOLUSIA AROUND SUNSET.
WITH LITTLE CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER AND NO SEA
BREEZE...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOW-MID 90S AND WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE COOLING OFF THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL PLACE HEAT INDICIES INTO THE 100-105
RANGE...UNCOMFORTABLE...BUT NOT TOO UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS TRACK FROM
THE GULF ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOW 70S ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY.

TUESDAY...EASTERN US TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN GIVING ENOUGH
MOMENTUM TO DRIVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHER MOISTURE AND ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE FRONT
BRINGING A RETURN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING MOST OF
THE DAY. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY TRACK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH TIME ALONG THE FRONT...AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING. POPS 50
PERCENT ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO NORTH AND 40 PERCENT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND KEEP TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE LOW 90S.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT ON HAVING A PROPER FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND BRINGING IN A NOTABLE DRY AIR PUSH BEHIND THE BOUNDARY EVEN
AT THE LOW LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIP
FROM VOLUSIA-ORLANDO NORTHWARDS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRMLY IN
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE VOLUSIA COAST AS
DEVELOPING E-NE FLOW MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.

FURTHER SOUTH...BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY WITH POPS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS
BREVARD/OSCEOLA TO 40 PERCENT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THU-SUN...CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY TO REACH S END OF THE PENINSULA FOR
THU AND FRI AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS AND ERODES. BEST RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE LOWER TREASURE COAST IN PROXIMITY. OTHERWISE...BELOW
NORMAL POPS THU GRADUALLY INCREASING FRI INTO WEEKEND TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES. PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL
KEEP THINGS INTERESTING AND ATYPICAL. HOWEVER...LOCAL LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS SHOULD SLACKEN TO ALLOW LOCAL CIRCULATIONS TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE GOVERNOR.


&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS REGION THROUGH 23Z. A FEW STRONGER
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 30KTS. PREVAILING VFR
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT MOVES INTO N FLORIDA...COULD SEE ISOLD SHRA
MOVING IN FROM GULF COAST AFFECTING KLEE AND ORLANDO SITES AS
EARLY AS 29/12Z. OTHERWISE...UNUSUAL JULY FRONT WILL BRING SCT-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA FROM THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WITH
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TONIGHT. WILL MENTION EXERCISE
CAUTION IN THESE AREAS FOR TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH SUNRISE ON TUESDAY.

PREVAILING 10-15KTS SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY ON TUES. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT
OFFSHORE INCREASING TO 2-4FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5FT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUES AS SOME LONGER SWELL WORKS ITS WAY INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...OUT OF SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET OR SO AND S-SW FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF THE INLET. HOWEVER WITH THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY
DEVELOP WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS EVEN FURTHER SOUTH. SEAS 2-3FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  90  75  92 /  20  50  30  10
MCO  77  92  75  94 /  10  50  30  10
MLB  76  91  74  91 /  20  40  40  20
VRB  76  93  74  92 /  20  40  40  40
LEE  78  93  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
SFB  78  92  76  94 /  20  50  30  10
ORL  78  92  78  94 /  10  50  30  10
FPR  76  92  73  91 /  20  40  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
RADAR/IMPACT WEATHER....LASCODY







000
FXUS62 KMFL 281908
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COUPLE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD ALSO GET INTO
BROWARD OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR/AFTER 00Z.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND EXTREME WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA...AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LAKE REGION. SO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING FROM NAPLES
NORTHWARD AND EAST TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 100-108 DEGREES AGAIN TUESDAY. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE EAST
COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL BE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WELL...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS VERY LIMITED TODAY BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER STORMS NORTH OF KAPF DIED BEFORE CROSSING INTO
PALM BEACH COUNTY. BASED ON TRENDS...VCTS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED
FROM THE KPBI TAF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY
RULE OUT STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD COUNTIES LATE DAY. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP THIS PM SHOULD
DIE QUICKLY TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS BACK ON THE INCREASE
TOMORROW....HOWEVER MODELS/GUIDANCE HAVE HAD A WET BIAS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND MAY BE ONCE AGAIN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  93  77  90 /  20  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  90 /  20  40  20  60
MIAMI            80  94  79  89 /  10  30  20  60
NAPLES           80  90  79  90 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 281908
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
308 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A COUPLE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD ALSO GET INTO
BROWARD OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR/AFTER 00Z.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND EXTREME WESTERN
ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO NORTH FLORIDA...AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LAKE REGION. SO ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING FROM NAPLES
NORTHWARD AND EAST TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND IT WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO
BE AROUND 100-108 DEGREES AGAIN TUESDAY. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LAKE REGION...AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE SEA BREEZE PINNED TO THE EAST
COAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...WHICH WILL BE CENTRAL/EASTERN
PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES.

THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL AS WELL...MAINLY DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY
AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS VERY LIMITED TODAY BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER STORMS NORTH OF KAPF DIED BEFORE CROSSING INTO
PALM BEACH COUNTY. BASED ON TRENDS...VCTS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED
FROM THE KPBI TAF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLY
RULE OUT STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD COUNTIES LATE DAY. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP THIS PM SHOULD
DIE QUICKLY TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS BACK ON THE INCREASE
TOMORROW....HOWEVER MODELS/GUIDANCE HAVE HAD A WET BIAS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND MAY BE ONCE AGAIN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  93  77  90 /  20  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  90 /  20  40  20  60
MIAMI            80  94  79  89 /  10  30  20  60
NAPLES           80  90  79  90 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KTBW 281905
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
305 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS
WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA/ALABAMA AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAIN
SHORT TERM CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND RAINFALL TRENDS ONCE AGAIN.

THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NATURE
COAST ON TUESDAY. INITIALLY...EXPECT THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT TYPICALLY DOES. LATER
TONIGHT AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND THE FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NATURE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP
OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FIZZING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT
SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT BY THE WEEKEND THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...ON THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
70S...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP
OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FIZZING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT
SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT BY THE WEEKEND THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...ON THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPORARY VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA
AND MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTH...THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS AND BUILD THE SEAS TO A MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING
OFF SHORE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  92  78  92 /  40  40  30  10
FMY  78  93  76  92 /  20  40  50  40
GIF  77  93  75  94 /  10  40  30  20
SRQ  83  92  78  91 /  40  40  40  20
BKV  76  93  71  94 /  40  50  30  10
SPG  83  91  78  91 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 281905
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
305 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS
WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA/ALABAMA AND INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO FUNNEL A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAIN
SHORT TERM CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND RAINFALL TRENDS ONCE AGAIN.

THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PANHANDLE TONIGHT...THEN SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NATURE
COAST ON TUESDAY. INITIALLY...EXPECT THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS IT TYPICALLY DOES. LATER
TONIGHT AS COASTAL CONVERGENCE INCREASES AND THE FRONT SLIPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PANHANDLE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NATURE COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. WESTERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINANT ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO BE HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS SEEN TODAY...GENERALLY IN THE 40
TO 60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP
OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FIZZING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT
SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT BY THE WEEKEND THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...ON THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
70S...EXCEPT IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL TOP
OUT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.MID TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HOLD OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FIZZING OUT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT MOSTLY IN THE 70S...BUT
SOME COASTAL AREAS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 80S THANKS TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S NEAR
THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN U.S. INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH THE FRONT WASHING OUT OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY. SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BUT BY THE WEEKEND THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES BACK NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE RATHER LOW...20 TO 30 PERCENT...ON THURSDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RAMP
UP LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL RANGE FROM LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 70S TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. BETTER CHANCES FOR TEMPORARY VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHRA/TSRA
AND MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING
SOUTH...THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS AND BUILD THE SEAS TO A MODERATE CHOP ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN OPERATING
OFF SHORE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY OTHER HAZARDS WILL BE HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  92  78  92 /  40  40  30  10
FMY  78  93  76  92 /  20  40  50  40
GIF  77  93  75  94 /  10  40  30  20
SRQ  83  92  78  91 /  40  40  40  20
BKV  76  93  71  94 /  40  50  30  10
SPG  83  91  78  91 /  40  40  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MID TERM/LONG TERM...CLOSE
MARINE...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KKEY 281848
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...A ROBUST MID AND UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
GEORGIA. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE
AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE NEXT MID AND UPPER TUTT (TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW CENTER IS AMBLING WESTWARD AT 22
NORTH 64 WEST.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM CONTINUES TO DETAIL AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE MIDDLE
DIXIE STATES...FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND. LOCALLY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
KEYS IS A COL ZONE.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ARE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY
ARE RECORDING VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A UNSEASONABLY DEEP
MID AND UPPER SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
MAINTAIN A MORE TYPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE THAN AS OF LATE AS THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS EXITED FOR NOW...WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AND GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY DEEP DIVING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TO BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL PROFILES ARE NOT WELL ALIGNED TO SUPPORT
GOOD MESOSCALE FORCING OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT DURING WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ON THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY
MORE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
500 MB...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER CHANCE POPS...30% FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS
EXPECTED IN TANDEM WITH A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A DEEPENING ALBEIT
LIGHT MOISTURE PROFILE THOUGH 400 MB. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE GRIDS...WHICH IS TYPICAL AS WE ENTER THE EARLY PART OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
GENTLE AND MOSTLY WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER
MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING OUT OF THE NORTH
OR NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS...MAY BECOME CALM AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WEST WIND 4 TO 7 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  91  82  92  81 / 20  10  10  20  20
MARATHON  81  92  81  93  81 / 20  10  10  20  20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................RIZZO
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............FLING/VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281848
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...A ROBUST MID AND UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
GEORGIA. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE
AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE NEXT MID AND UPPER TUTT (TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW CENTER IS AMBLING WESTWARD AT 22
NORTH 64 WEST.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM CONTINUES TO DETAIL AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE MIDDLE
DIXIE STATES...FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND. LOCALLY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
KEYS IS A COL ZONE.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ARE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY
ARE RECORDING VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A UNSEASONABLY DEEP
MID AND UPPER SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
MAINTAIN A MORE TYPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE THAN AS OF LATE AS THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS EXITED FOR NOW...WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AND GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY DEEP DIVING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TO BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL PROFILES ARE NOT WELL ALIGNED TO SUPPORT
GOOD MESOSCALE FORCING OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT DURING WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ON THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY
MORE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
500 MB...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER CHANCE POPS...30% FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS
EXPECTED IN TANDEM WITH A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A DEEPENING ALBEIT
LIGHT MOISTURE PROFILE THOUGH 400 MB. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE GRIDS...WHICH IS TYPICAL AS WE ENTER THE EARLY PART OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
GENTLE AND MOSTLY WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER
MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING OUT OF THE NORTH
OR NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS...MAY BECOME CALM AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WEST WIND 4 TO 7 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  91  82  92  81 / 20  10  10  20  20
MARATHON  81  92  81  93  81 / 20  10  10  20  20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................RIZZO
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............FLING/VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST











000
FXUS62 KKEY 281848
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...A ROBUST MID AND UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
GEORGIA. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE
AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE NEXT MID AND UPPER TUTT (TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW CENTER IS AMBLING WESTWARD AT 22
NORTH 64 WEST.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM CONTINUES TO DETAIL AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE MIDDLE
DIXIE STATES...FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND. LOCALLY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
KEYS IS A COL ZONE.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ARE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY
ARE RECORDING VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A UNSEASONABLY DEEP
MID AND UPPER SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
MAINTAIN A MORE TYPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE THAN AS OF LATE AS THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS EXITED FOR NOW...WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AND GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY DEEP DIVING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TO BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL PROFILES ARE NOT WELL ALIGNED TO SUPPORT
GOOD MESOSCALE FORCING OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT DURING WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ON THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY
MORE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
500 MB...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER CHANCE POPS...30% FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS
EXPECTED IN TANDEM WITH A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A DEEPENING ALBEIT
LIGHT MOISTURE PROFILE THOUGH 400 MB. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE GRIDS...WHICH IS TYPICAL AS WE ENTER THE EARLY PART OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
GENTLE AND MOSTLY WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER
MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING OUT OF THE NORTH
OR NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS...MAY BECOME CALM AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WEST WIND 4 TO 7 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  91  82  92  81 / 20  10  10  20  20
MARATHON  81  92  81  93  81 / 20  10  10  20  20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................RIZZO
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............FLING/VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST











000
FXUS62 KKEY 281848
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
245 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 200 PM
CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN ABNORMALLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...A ROBUST MID AND UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
GEORGIA. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE
AND UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ORIENTED FROM WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE NEXT MID AND UPPER TUTT (TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW CENTER IS AMBLING WESTWARD AT 22
NORTH 64 WEST.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM CONTINUES TO DETAIL AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS THE MIDDLE
DIXIE STATES...FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEW
ENGLAND. LOCALLY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
KEYS IS A COL ZONE.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ARE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
70S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY
ARE RECORDING VARIABLE WINDS AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A UNSEASONABLY DEEP
MID AND UPPER SYNOPTIC SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
MAINTAIN A MORE TYPICAL MOISTURE PROFILE THAN AS OF LATE AS THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER HAS EXITED FOR NOW...WITH PWAT BETWEEN 1.50 AND
1.75 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AND GIVEN THE UNUSUALLY DEEP DIVING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARDS...EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT TO BECOME WESTERLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LOWER TO MID LEVEL PROFILES ARE NOT WELL ALIGNED TO SUPPORT
GOOD MESOSCALE FORCING OVER THE ISLANDS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT DURING WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEN ON THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY
MORE LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
500 MB...WHICH IS SUPPORTIVE OF LOWER CHANCE POPS...30% FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY EVENING.

.EXTENDED...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MID AND UPPER RIDGING IS
EXPECTED IN TANDEM WITH A BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A DEEPENING ALBEIT
LIGHT MOISTURE PROFILE THOUGH 400 MB. THEREFORE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS IN THE GRIDS...WHICH IS TYPICAL AS WE ENTER THE EARLY PART OF
THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY HOTTEST MONTH OF THE YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO
GENTLE AND MOSTLY WEST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN BECOME
LIGHT AND EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF SHOWER
MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
BEFORE SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...FAVORING OUT OF THE NORTH
OR NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS...MAY BECOME CALM AT TIMES
OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT WEST WIND 4 TO 7 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  91  82  92  81 / 20  10  10  20  20
MARATHON  81  92  81  93  81 / 20  10  10  20  20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................RIZZO
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............FLING/VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST











000
FXUS62 KJAX 281846
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
246 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTORMS...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...

SMALL QUICK MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
FL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTORM ACTIVITY
NOTED WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE STARTING TO SHIFT INLAND OVER
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. STORMS OVER FL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY
TRACK OFF TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 20 MPH.

JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS
STARTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT
NEARS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THROUGH 00Z...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHEARED
OUT PRE- FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE FL.
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT IS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND THUS CONTINUED TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-40%
RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SWATH OF 50-60%
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DRY
POCKETS IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND INCREASED SHEAR...THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DOWNBURSTS AND EVEN HAIL ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA LATE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG CELLS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE FL THROUGH THE LATE AFTN.

HEAT INDICES RANGED FROM GENERALLY BETWEEN 105-110 DEG THIS AFTN...WITH
A DRY BULB READING OF 100 DEG AT WAYCROSS TO EVEN 95 DEG AT SSI UNDER
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY WEST WIND. THE HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE
AND WILL LEAVE IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM EDT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
FROM THE NW TRAILING THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER OUR EXTREME NW GA
ZONES NEAR HAZLEHURST AND PLANT HATCH WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK TUE...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH MINS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S RIVER/COAST UNDER PARTLY TO
AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR NORTH OF THIS
FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE GREATLY LACKING BUT INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED PULSE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY. DRY UPPER LEVEL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY
BRING AN END TO ALL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF OUR ZONES EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 60S AT MANY LOCALES WELL
INLAND...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR INLAND GEORGIA COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL
MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BUT SOME MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HUMID. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT AGAIN NOT NEARLY AS MUGGY AS RECENT
DAYS.

ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR WESTERN ZONES
AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO BRING A RETURN TO A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SEABREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SRN EXTENT OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO SRN MS
VALLEY WHICH WILL TRANSITION DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW TO THE SW. AT
THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND TEMPS ALOFT MAY
COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS ALL INDICATES A RETURN TO A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY SAT THROUGH MON WITH THE W
COAST SEA BREEZE THE DOMINATE BOUNDARY HELPING TO FOSTER AT LEAST
SCATTERED DAILY CONVECTION. MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME HEAVIER PRECIP PERIODS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTN AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH MOST CLOUD BASES JUST ABOVE 3 KFT. COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER AND ISOLATED TS ACTIVITY AND ADVERTISED
VCSH ALL ZONES BETWEEN NOW AND 20Z WITH TEMPO MVFR. SSI WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF AN EVENING TS AND CONTINUED WITH VCTS AT 22Z.
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NOT EXPECTED WITH SW WINDS PREVAILING EVEN
AT SSI AND CRG. OVERNIGHT FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE
TERMINALS AND POSITION NEAR THE FL-GA STATE LINE EARLY TUE
MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SOME LOW STRATUS TO THE FL TAF
SITES...AND FOR NOW INDICATED SCT 1-1.5 KFT IN THE TAFS WITH VCSH
AROUND 07-13Z. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TUE WILL BE AT GNV AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
FRONTAL ZONES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION OFFSHORE LEGS WITH A SOLID 15 KTS NEARSHORE. CAPPED SEAS A
3-4 FT OFFSHORE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE BASED ON OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS
WILL RELAX LATE TUE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WED-FRI WITH EASTERLY FLOW 10-15 KTS.
WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...MORNING LOWS AT ALMA (AMG) AND GAINESVILLE (GNV) SET
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR THE DATE.

SITE NEW RECORD OLD RECORD/YEAR
AMG 78 76/2011
GNV7776/1992

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  65  93 /  60   0  10  10
SSI  76  91  74  89 /  50  10  10  10
JAX  75  92  71  92 /  30  30  10  10
SGJ  77  91  74  90 /  30  50  20  10
GNV  75  92  69  93 /  30  50  20  10
OCF  75  92  71  94 /  30  60  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-CLAY-
     COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/







000
FXUS62 KJAX 281846
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
246 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTORMS...

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT...

SMALL QUICK MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST
FL THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH A RECENT INCREASE IN TSTORM ACTIVITY
NOTED WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE STARTING TO SHIFT INLAND OVER
THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY. STORMS OVER FL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AS THEY
TRACK OFF TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 20 MPH.

JUST NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTORMS
STARTED TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT
NEARS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THROUGH 00Z...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHEARED
OUT PRE- FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER NE FL.
THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT IS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND THUS CONTINUED TO CAP RAIN CHANCES IN THE 30-40%
RANGE FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SWATH OF 50-60%
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DRY
POCKETS IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS AND INCREASED SHEAR...THERE REMAINS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DOWNBURSTS AND EVEN HAIL ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE GA LATE THIS AFTN
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG CELLS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER NE FL THROUGH THE LATE AFTN.

HEAT INDICES RANGED FROM GENERALLY BETWEEN 105-110 DEG THIS AFTN...WITH
A DRY BULB READING OF 100 DEG AT WAYCROSS TO EVEN 95 DEG AT SSI UNDER
A VERY WARM AND BREEZY WEST WIND. THE HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS REASONABLE
AND WILL LEAVE IN PLACE THROUGH 7 PM EDT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
FROM THE NW TRAILING THE FRONT TONIGHT OVER OUR EXTREME NW GA
ZONES NEAR HAZLEHURST AND PLANT HATCH WITH DEW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER
60S BY DAYBREAK TUE...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM WITH MINS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S RIVER/COAST UNDER PARTLY TO
AT TIMES MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PRESSES
SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR NORTH OF THIS
FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST AUGUSTINE.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE GREATLY LACKING BUT INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED PULSE STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES ON TUESDAY. DRY UPPER LEVEL
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER SOUTH DURING THE DAY AND EVENTUALLY
BRING AN END TO ALL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF OUR ZONES EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. COOLER TEMPS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS
DIPPING DOWN INTO THE MID 60S AT MANY LOCALES WELL
INLAND...PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR INLAND GEORGIA COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH
BROAD TROUGHING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SIGNIFICANT DRY
AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL SUPPRESS ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TEMPS WILL
MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BUT SOME MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HUMID. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...BUT AGAIN NOT NEARLY AS MUGGY AS RECENT
DAYS.

ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR WESTERN ZONES
AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO BRING A RETURN TO A
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
SEABREEZE AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

NO CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE MODELS REMAIN IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SRN EXTENT OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS GA AND THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TO SRN MS
VALLEY WHICH WILL TRANSITION DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW TO THE SW. AT
THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE AND TEMPS ALOFT MAY
COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THIS ALL INDICATES A RETURN TO A MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...ESPECIALLY SAT THROUGH MON WITH THE W
COAST SEA BREEZE THE DOMINATE BOUNDARY HELPING TO FOSTER AT LEAST
SCATTERED DAILY CONVECTION. MAX/MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD. SOME HEAVIER PRECIP PERIODS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SAT THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTN AT ALL TERMINALS
WITH MOST CLOUD BASES JUST ABOVE 3 KFT. COULD SEE TEMPO MVFR CIGS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWER AND ISOLATED TS ACTIVITY AND ADVERTISED
VCSH ALL ZONES BETWEEN NOW AND 20Z WITH TEMPO MVFR. SSI WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF AN EVENING TS AND CONTINUED WITH VCTS AT 22Z.
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE NOT EXPECTED WITH SW WINDS PREVAILING EVEN
AT SSI AND CRG. OVERNIGHT FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE
TERMINALS AND POSITION NEAR THE FL-GA STATE LINE EARLY TUE
MORNING. THIS COULD BRING SOME LOW STRATUS TO THE FL TAF
SITES...AND FOR NOW INDICATED SCT 1-1.5 KFT IN THE TAFS WITH VCSH
AROUND 07-13Z. BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP TUE WILL BE AT GNV AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
FRONTAL ZONES SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. WILL CARRY SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION OFFSHORE LEGS WITH A SOLID 15 KTS NEARSHORE. CAPPED SEAS A
3-4 FT OFFSHORE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE BASED ON OFFSHORE FLOW. WINDS
WILL RELAX LATE TUE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WED-FRI WITH EASTERLY FLOW 10-15 KTS.
WINDS VEER SOUTHERLY NEXT WEEKEND AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF
COAST REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.CLIMATE...MORNING LOWS AT ALMA (AMG) AND GAINESVILLE (GNV) SET
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR THE DATE.

SITE NEW RECORD OLD RECORD/YEAR
AMG 78 76/2011
GNV7776/1992

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  90  65  93 /  60   0  10  10
SSI  76  91  74  89 /  50  10  10  10
JAX  75  92  71  92 /  30  30  10  10
SGJ  77  91  74  90 /  30  50  20  10
GNV  75  92  69  93 /  30  50  20  10
OCF  75  92  71  94 /  30  60  30  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-CLAY-
     COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-NASSAU-PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-
     SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-
     BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
     COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-
     WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/SHULER/








000
FXUS62 KTAE 281841
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The cold front across the Southeast continues to move off toward
the Gulf Coast States with scattered convection already initiating
ahead of the boundary. Storms are also developing along the sea
breeze front, mainly in the Florida Big Bend. So far, development
through 1830z has been fairly close to the 28/09z WRF forecast, which
the morning forecast was weighted heavily toward.

Overall, the thermodynamic environment is quite favorable for
the additional development and intensification of storms. SBCAPE
values exceed 4000 J/kg across the entire forecast area.
Kinematics aren`t overly impressive with deep layer shear values
only in the 25 to 30kt range. With the added forcing of the cold
front, expect storms to gradually merge into multi-cell clusters
or linear segments as they progress toward the region this
afternoon and evening. Primary concerns are for damaging winds.
Hail is also a possibility in the strongest storms.

Storms should diminish after about 04z as the cold front nears
the coast and much of the daily instability is lost. Cooler and
drier air will begin spreading into the region with overnight lows
north of the Florida border possibly dropping into the upper 60s.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a
Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push
south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the
day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in
overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records.
For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with
mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for
Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or
two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will
range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s.

Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For
example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are:

July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida
counties early this afternoon. A stronger cluster or line of
thunderstorms is expected to develop over central AL/GA later this
afternoon. These storms will move into DHN and ABY late this
afternoon and towards TLH and VLD this evening. These storms could
produce very strong winds and small hail. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected overnight and into tomorrow.

&&

.Marine...
Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise
caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north.
Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually
diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...
Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated
rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals
aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen
any flood concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  66  93  66 /  60  10   0  10   0
Panama City   75  92  72  90  72 /  60  10   0  10   0
Dothan        70  91  66  90  65 /  40   0   0  10   0
Albany        69  91  65  91  66 /  40   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      71  92  64  92  67 /  60  10   0  10   0
Cross City    75  93  68  94  69 /  50  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  91  71  90  73 /  50  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281841
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The cold front across the Southeast continues to move off toward
the Gulf Coast States with scattered convection already initiating
ahead of the boundary. Storms are also developing along the sea
breeze front, mainly in the Florida Big Bend. So far, development
through 1830z has been fairly close to the 28/09z WRF forecast, which
the morning forecast was weighted heavily toward.

Overall, the thermodynamic environment is quite favorable for
the additional development and intensification of storms. SBCAPE
values exceed 4000 J/kg across the entire forecast area.
Kinematics aren`t overly impressive with deep layer shear values
only in the 25 to 30kt range. With the added forcing of the cold
front, expect storms to gradually merge into multi-cell clusters
or linear segments as they progress toward the region this
afternoon and evening. Primary concerns are for damaging winds.
Hail is also a possibility in the strongest storms.

Storms should diminish after about 04z as the cold front nears
the coast and much of the daily instability is lost. Cooler and
drier air will begin spreading into the region with overnight lows
north of the Florida border possibly dropping into the upper 60s.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a
Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push
south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the
day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in
overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records.
For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with
mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for
Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or
two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will
range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s.

Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For
example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are:

July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida
counties early this afternoon. A stronger cluster or line of
thunderstorms is expected to develop over central AL/GA later this
afternoon. These storms will move into DHN and ABY late this
afternoon and towards TLH and VLD this evening. These storms could
produce very strong winds and small hail. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected overnight and into tomorrow.

&&

.Marine...
Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise
caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north.
Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually
diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...
Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated
rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals
aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen
any flood concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  66  93  66 /  60  10   0  10   0
Panama City   75  92  72  90  72 /  60  10   0  10   0
Dothan        70  91  66  90  65 /  40   0   0  10   0
Albany        69  91  65  91  66 /  40   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      71  92  64  92  67 /  60  10   0  10   0
Cross City    75  93  68  94  69 /  50  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  91  71  90  73 /  50  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281841
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The cold front across the Southeast continues to move off toward
the Gulf Coast States with scattered convection already initiating
ahead of the boundary. Storms are also developing along the sea
breeze front, mainly in the Florida Big Bend. So far, development
through 1830z has been fairly close to the 28/09z WRF forecast, which
the morning forecast was weighted heavily toward.

Overall, the thermodynamic environment is quite favorable for
the additional development and intensification of storms. SBCAPE
values exceed 4000 J/kg across the entire forecast area.
Kinematics aren`t overly impressive with deep layer shear values
only in the 25 to 30kt range. With the added forcing of the cold
front, expect storms to gradually merge into multi-cell clusters
or linear segments as they progress toward the region this
afternoon and evening. Primary concerns are for damaging winds.
Hail is also a possibility in the strongest storms.

Storms should diminish after about 04z as the cold front nears
the coast and much of the daily instability is lost. Cooler and
drier air will begin spreading into the region with overnight lows
north of the Florida border possibly dropping into the upper 60s.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a
Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push
south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the
day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in
overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records.
For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with
mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for
Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or
two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will
range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s.

Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For
example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are:

July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida
counties early this afternoon. A stronger cluster or line of
thunderstorms is expected to develop over central AL/GA later this
afternoon. These storms will move into DHN and ABY late this
afternoon and towards TLH and VLD this evening. These storms could
produce very strong winds and small hail. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected overnight and into tomorrow.

&&

.Marine...
Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise
caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north.
Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually
diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...
Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated
rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals
aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen
any flood concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  66  93  66 /  60  10   0  10   0
Panama City   75  92  72  90  72 /  60  10   0  10   0
Dothan        70  91  66  90  65 /  40   0   0  10   0
Albany        69  91  65  91  66 /  40   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      71  92  64  92  67 /  60  10   0  10   0
Cross City    75  93  68  94  69 /  50  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  91  71  90  73 /  50  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281841
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
241 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The cold front across the Southeast continues to move off toward
the Gulf Coast States with scattered convection already initiating
ahead of the boundary. Storms are also developing along the sea
breeze front, mainly in the Florida Big Bend. So far, development
through 1830z has been fairly close to the 28/09z WRF forecast, which
the morning forecast was weighted heavily toward.

Overall, the thermodynamic environment is quite favorable for
the additional development and intensification of storms. SBCAPE
values exceed 4000 J/kg across the entire forecast area.
Kinematics aren`t overly impressive with deep layer shear values
only in the 25 to 30kt range. With the added forcing of the cold
front, expect storms to gradually merge into multi-cell clusters
or linear segments as they progress toward the region this
afternoon and evening. Primary concerns are for damaging winds.
Hail is also a possibility in the strongest storms.

Storms should diminish after about 04z as the cold front nears
the coast and much of the daily instability is lost. Cooler and
drier air will begin spreading into the region with overnight lows
north of the Florida border possibly dropping into the upper 60s.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
By Tuesday morning the cold front will be south of a
Valdosta-Tallahassee-Apalachicola line and will continue to push
south of the FL Big Bend by late afternoon. This will result in a
chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the front through the
day, mainly in the Big Bend area, with dry conditions Tuesday night
through Wednesday night.

The front will usher in cooler and much drier air, resulting in
overnight lows that will come close to some long-standing records.
For Tuesday night expect low 60s in southern AL and southern GA with
mid to upper 60s elsewhere. Similar readings are expected for
Wednesday although some locations could be cooler by a degrees or
two as drier air continues to work into the area. Daytime highs will
range from the upper 80s to the lower and mid 90s.

Stayed close to current forecasts for next couple of days. For
example at Tallahassee going for lows around 66 Wednesday and
Thursday mornings. The record lows here for those dates are:

July 30 - 67 (1927) Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
July 31 - 63 (1896) Wednesday night/Thursday morning

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday]
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida
counties early this afternoon. A stronger cluster or line of
thunderstorms is expected to develop over central AL/GA later this
afternoon. These storms will move into DHN and ABY late this
afternoon and towards TLH and VLD this evening. These storms could
produce very strong winds and small hail. Otherwise VFR conditions
are expected overnight and into tomorrow.

&&

.Marine...
Westerly winds will continue at a solid 15-20kt in the exercise
caution range with the approach of a cold front from the north.
Winds will become offshore behind the front on Tuesday and gradually
diminish Tuesday night. Expect light to moderate offshore winds
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than currently anticipated.

&&

.Hydrology...
Storms moving through the region today could produce isolated
rainfall totals around an inch or so, but widespread heavy totals
aren`t anticipated. Storm motions are also quick enough to lessen
any flood concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  66  93  66 /  60  10   0  10   0
Panama City   75  92  72  90  72 /  60  10   0  10   0
Dothan        70  91  66  90  65 /  40   0   0  10   0
Albany        69  91  65  91  66 /  40   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      71  92  64  92  67 /  60  10   0  10   0
Cross City    75  93  68  94  69 /  50  30  10  10   0
Apalachicola  76  91  71  90  73 /  50  20   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...HOLLINGSWORTH
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281749
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
149 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

STORMS VERY LIMITED TODAY BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION. EARLIER STORMS NORTH OF KAPF DIED BEFORE CROSSING INTO
PALM BEACH COUNTY. BASED ON TRENDS...VCTS MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED
FROM THE KPBI TAF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...CAN`T TOTALLYRULE
OUT STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH AND BROWARD
COUNTIES LATE DAY. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP THIS PM SHOULD DIE
QUICKLY TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS BACK ON THE INCREASE
TOMORROW....HOWEVER MODELS/GUIDANCE HAVE HAD A WET BIAS OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS AND MAY BE ONCE AGAIN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH ACTIVITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

UPDATE...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND
THIS WILL DELAY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHOWED DRY AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MOVING INTO FORT
MYERS AND EASTWARD INTO HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF STORMS TODAY...AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO BROWARD COUNTY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IT WILL BE HOT TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF 100-105.
TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS IT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH A RATHER DRY REGIME EXISTS OVER THE REGION...TONGUE OF
BETTER MOISTURE...NEAR 2" PWATS JUST OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY HAVE
MIXED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...THE DRIEST AIR
WHICH WAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA HAS DRIFTED WEST. THIS HAS
ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SEEP SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND WITH A STRONGER MORE CONSISTENT WEST WIND...MIGHT BE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TODAY OF NEAR BEACH STORM DEVELOPMENT THAN
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS EVEN INTO BROWARD COUNTY. DESPITE THIS...CHCS
ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO
ADD A VCTS GROUP BASED ON EVOLUTION AT KFLL/KFXE LATER TODAY.
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE VCTS REMAINS VALID AT KPBI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD RESULT
IN REDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES LIKELY
HAVING THE MOST COVERAGE WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.

THERE IS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CONTINENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND APPROACHING THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GUIDANCE BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN
LONGER. THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED SO FAR IS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH FORECAST PWAT`S FOR WEDNESDAY ABOUT TWO INCHES. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL
VARIATIONS FAVORING MORE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUIDANCE DID HINT AT MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY BUT FOR NOW SCALED
BACK THE COVERAGE UNTIL THE EVENT IS CLOSER AND THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  78  92 /  20  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  80  91 /  20  40  30  50
MIAMI            79  91  79  90 /  10  40  30  50
NAPLES           79  91  79  90 /  20  30  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KTAE 281529
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1129 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
An unusual setup for late July is unfolding across the region
today. A cold front, analyzed across Central Alabama and into
Middle Georgia is moving southward toward our region. West
southwesterly flow ahead of this front continues to keep dewpoints
in the mid to upper 70s. Aloft, a trough moving out of the Ohio
Valley continues to amplify while approaching the Mid Atlantic
States. With the increased dynamical forcing combining with the
summertime instability expect numerous showers and storms to
develop later this afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary and
move southward toward the coast. Modified soundings of 97/74 show
over 4000 J/kg of SBCAPE with model guidance indicating the deep
layer shear increasing to 25 to 30 kt. Soundings at KTAE/KFFC also
reveal the presence of some mid level dry air, which will likely
help support more sustained and intense downdrafts from the
stronger storms. As a result, the primary concern for this
afternoons storms are damaging winds. Freezing levels are getting
high (15.8-16.1kft) but with so much instability and 700-500 mb lapse
rates approaching 7degC/km, can`t rule out some large hail this
afternoon in the most intense storms.

Given the good agreement between the high resolution guidance
members, have increased pops to around 70 percent for our northern
zones in the 21z-00z timeframe with around 60 percent after 00z
for the counties along the I-10 corridor. Expect the severe threat
to continue for a couple of hours after sunset as the synoptic
forcing will help provide a focus for storms as the instability
diminishes.

The heat advisory remains in effect. Temperatures already this
morning are a little warmer than forecast, and with storm
development not anticipated til after 2 pm, heat indices in the
108 to 111 degree range are likely from late this morning through
the afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [323 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
By this evening, the cold front will be bisecting the forecast
area and continuing to move steadily southeastward. A few strong
to severe storms will remain possible out ahead of it through the
evening hours with a gradual weakening trend expected overnight.
The front should be through most of the area by dawn on Tuesday
with the exception of the far southeast big bend. Significantly
drier air in its wake will allow low temperatures to reach the mid
60s over most of the area by Wednesday morning with PoPs below
20%.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
The full latitude eastern CONUS trough will continue to amplify
through the period. The front which will move across the area
early in the week will usher in much drier and cooler air through
Thursday, with the possibility of reaching some record morning
lows. The long standing records for this period at Tallahassee
are:

July 30 - 67 (1927)
July 31 - 63 (1896)
Aug 1 - 64 (1993)

Expect generally dry and relatively cool conditions for Wednesday
and Thursday with very low PoPs. Thursday and Friday morning lows,
July 31st and Aug 1st, will range from 65-70.

By late Thursday, moisture will begin to increase once again across
the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the main
upper trough moves into the forecast area. For Friday through the
weekend expect a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. The increased convection for the end
of the week and weekend will keep high temperatures in the 85 to
90 range across the area.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Expect VFR conditions into the early
afternoon at all terminals. Thunderstorms will likely impact all
terminals during the afternoon and evening hours, spreading from
north to south. A few a these storms could have very strong wind
gusts. Activity should be south of all terminals by around 02Z
tonight.


.Marine...
The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the south
and the approaching cold front to the north will maintain
westerly winds at exercise caution levels at times through
tonight. Winds will gradually diminish and become offshore by
Tuesday night into Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next couple of days.
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s.


.Hydrology...
Thunderstorms along a cold front could bring some locally heavy
rainfall to the area this afternoon and this evening, but the
system will remain progressive and widespread impacts from heavy
rain are not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   98  73  94  66  93 /  50  60  10   0  10
Panama City   90  76  92  72  91 /  50  60  10   0  10
Dothan        96  69  92  66  90 /  70  40   0   0  10
Albany        97  71  91  66  92 /  70  40   0   0  10
Valdosta      99  72  93  65  93 /  50  60  10   0  10
Cross City    93  76  94  67  93 /  30  50  30  10  10
Apalachicola  90  76  92  70  90 /  40  50  20   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281529
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1129 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
An unusual setup for late July is unfolding across the region
today. A cold front, analyzed across Central Alabama and into
Middle Georgia is moving southward toward our region. West
southwesterly flow ahead of this front continues to keep dewpoints
in the mid to upper 70s. Aloft, a trough moving out of the Ohio
Valley continues to amplify while approaching the Mid Atlantic
States. With the increased dynamical forcing combining with the
summertime instability expect numerous showers and storms to
develop later this afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary and
move southward toward the coast. Modified soundings of 97/74 show
over 4000 J/kg of SBCAPE with model guidance indicating the deep
layer shear increasing to 25 to 30 kt. Soundings at KTAE/KFFC also
reveal the presence of some mid level dry air, which will likely
help support more sustained and intense downdrafts from the
stronger storms. As a result, the primary concern for this
afternoons storms are damaging winds. Freezing levels are getting
high (15.8-16.1kft) but with so much instability and 700-500 mb lapse
rates approaching 7degC/km, can`t rule out some large hail this
afternoon in the most intense storms.

Given the good agreement between the high resolution guidance
members, have increased pops to around 70 percent for our northern
zones in the 21z-00z timeframe with around 60 percent after 00z
for the counties along the I-10 corridor. Expect the severe threat
to continue for a couple of hours after sunset as the synoptic
forcing will help provide a focus for storms as the instability
diminishes.

The heat advisory remains in effect. Temperatures already this
morning are a little warmer than forecast, and with storm
development not anticipated til after 2 pm, heat indices in the
108 to 111 degree range are likely from late this morning through
the afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [323 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
By this evening, the cold front will be bisecting the forecast
area and continuing to move steadily southeastward. A few strong
to severe storms will remain possible out ahead of it through the
evening hours with a gradual weakening trend expected overnight.
The front should be through most of the area by dawn on Tuesday
with the exception of the far southeast big bend. Significantly
drier air in its wake will allow low temperatures to reach the mid
60s over most of the area by Wednesday morning with PoPs below
20%.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
The full latitude eastern CONUS trough will continue to amplify
through the period. The front which will move across the area
early in the week will usher in much drier and cooler air through
Thursday, with the possibility of reaching some record morning
lows. The long standing records for this period at Tallahassee
are:

July 30 - 67 (1927)
July 31 - 63 (1896)
Aug 1 - 64 (1993)

Expect generally dry and relatively cool conditions for Wednesday
and Thursday with very low PoPs. Thursday and Friday morning lows,
July 31st and Aug 1st, will range from 65-70.

By late Thursday, moisture will begin to increase once again across
the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the main
upper trough moves into the forecast area. For Friday through the
weekend expect a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. The increased convection for the end
of the week and weekend will keep high temperatures in the 85 to
90 range across the area.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Expect VFR conditions into the early
afternoon at all terminals. Thunderstorms will likely impact all
terminals during the afternoon and evening hours, spreading from
north to south. A few a these storms could have very strong wind
gusts. Activity should be south of all terminals by around 02Z
tonight.


.Marine...
The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the south
and the approaching cold front to the north will maintain
westerly winds at exercise caution levels at times through
tonight. Winds will gradually diminish and become offshore by
Tuesday night into Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next couple of days.
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s.


.Hydrology...
Thunderstorms along a cold front could bring some locally heavy
rainfall to the area this afternoon and this evening, but the
system will remain progressive and widespread impacts from heavy
rain are not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   98  73  94  66  93 /  50  60  10   0  10
Panama City   90  76  92  72  91 /  50  60  10   0  10
Dothan        96  69  92  66  90 /  70  40   0   0  10
Albany        97  71  91  66  92 /  70  40   0   0  10
Valdosta      99  72  93  65  93 /  50  60  10   0  10
Cross City    93  76  94  67  93 /  30  50  30  10  10
Apalachicola  90  76  92  70  90 /  40  50  20   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281529
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1129 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
An unusual setup for late July is unfolding across the region
today. A cold front, analyzed across Central Alabama and into
Middle Georgia is moving southward toward our region. West
southwesterly flow ahead of this front continues to keep dewpoints
in the mid to upper 70s. Aloft, a trough moving out of the Ohio
Valley continues to amplify while approaching the Mid Atlantic
States. With the increased dynamical forcing combining with the
summertime instability expect numerous showers and storms to
develop later this afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary and
move southward toward the coast. Modified soundings of 97/74 show
over 4000 J/kg of SBCAPE with model guidance indicating the deep
layer shear increasing to 25 to 30 kt. Soundings at KTAE/KFFC also
reveal the presence of some mid level dry air, which will likely
help support more sustained and intense downdrafts from the
stronger storms. As a result, the primary concern for this
afternoons storms are damaging winds. Freezing levels are getting
high (15.8-16.1kft) but with so much instability and 700-500 mb lapse
rates approaching 7degC/km, can`t rule out some large hail this
afternoon in the most intense storms.

Given the good agreement between the high resolution guidance
members, have increased pops to around 70 percent for our northern
zones in the 21z-00z timeframe with around 60 percent after 00z
for the counties along the I-10 corridor. Expect the severe threat
to continue for a couple of hours after sunset as the synoptic
forcing will help provide a focus for storms as the instability
diminishes.

The heat advisory remains in effect. Temperatures already this
morning are a little warmer than forecast, and with storm
development not anticipated til after 2 pm, heat indices in the
108 to 111 degree range are likely from late this morning through
the afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [323 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
By this evening, the cold front will be bisecting the forecast
area and continuing to move steadily southeastward. A few strong
to severe storms will remain possible out ahead of it through the
evening hours with a gradual weakening trend expected overnight.
The front should be through most of the area by dawn on Tuesday
with the exception of the far southeast big bend. Significantly
drier air in its wake will allow low temperatures to reach the mid
60s over most of the area by Wednesday morning with PoPs below
20%.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
The full latitude eastern CONUS trough will continue to amplify
through the period. The front which will move across the area
early in the week will usher in much drier and cooler air through
Thursday, with the possibility of reaching some record morning
lows. The long standing records for this period at Tallahassee
are:

July 30 - 67 (1927)
July 31 - 63 (1896)
Aug 1 - 64 (1993)

Expect generally dry and relatively cool conditions for Wednesday
and Thursday with very low PoPs. Thursday and Friday morning lows,
July 31st and Aug 1st, will range from 65-70.

By late Thursday, moisture will begin to increase once again across
the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the main
upper trough moves into the forecast area. For Friday through the
weekend expect a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. The increased convection for the end
of the week and weekend will keep high temperatures in the 85 to
90 range across the area.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Expect VFR conditions into the early
afternoon at all terminals. Thunderstorms will likely impact all
terminals during the afternoon and evening hours, spreading from
north to south. A few a these storms could have very strong wind
gusts. Activity should be south of all terminals by around 02Z
tonight.


.Marine...
The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the south
and the approaching cold front to the north will maintain
westerly winds at exercise caution levels at times through
tonight. Winds will gradually diminish and become offshore by
Tuesday night into Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next couple of days.
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s.


.Hydrology...
Thunderstorms along a cold front could bring some locally heavy
rainfall to the area this afternoon and this evening, but the
system will remain progressive and widespread impacts from heavy
rain are not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   98  73  94  66  93 /  50  60  10   0  10
Panama City   90  76  92  72  91 /  50  60  10   0  10
Dothan        96  69  92  66  90 /  70  40   0   0  10
Albany        97  71  91  66  92 /  70  40   0   0  10
Valdosta      99  72  93  65  93 /  50  60  10   0  10
Cross City    93  76  94  67  93 /  30  50  30  10  10
Apalachicola  90  76  92  70  90 /  40  50  20   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 281529
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1129 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
An unusual setup for late July is unfolding across the region
today. A cold front, analyzed across Central Alabama and into
Middle Georgia is moving southward toward our region. West
southwesterly flow ahead of this front continues to keep dewpoints
in the mid to upper 70s. Aloft, a trough moving out of the Ohio
Valley continues to amplify while approaching the Mid Atlantic
States. With the increased dynamical forcing combining with the
summertime instability expect numerous showers and storms to
develop later this afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary and
move southward toward the coast. Modified soundings of 97/74 show
over 4000 J/kg of SBCAPE with model guidance indicating the deep
layer shear increasing to 25 to 30 kt. Soundings at KTAE/KFFC also
reveal the presence of some mid level dry air, which will likely
help support more sustained and intense downdrafts from the
stronger storms. As a result, the primary concern for this
afternoons storms are damaging winds. Freezing levels are getting
high (15.8-16.1kft) but with so much instability and 700-500 mb lapse
rates approaching 7degC/km, can`t rule out some large hail this
afternoon in the most intense storms.

Given the good agreement between the high resolution guidance
members, have increased pops to around 70 percent for our northern
zones in the 21z-00z timeframe with around 60 percent after 00z
for the counties along the I-10 corridor. Expect the severe threat
to continue for a couple of hours after sunset as the synoptic
forcing will help provide a focus for storms as the instability
diminishes.

The heat advisory remains in effect. Temperatures already this
morning are a little warmer than forecast, and with storm
development not anticipated til after 2 pm, heat indices in the
108 to 111 degree range are likely from late this morning through
the afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [323 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
By this evening, the cold front will be bisecting the forecast
area and continuing to move steadily southeastward. A few strong
to severe storms will remain possible out ahead of it through the
evening hours with a gradual weakening trend expected overnight.
The front should be through most of the area by dawn on Tuesday
with the exception of the far southeast big bend. Significantly
drier air in its wake will allow low temperatures to reach the mid
60s over most of the area by Wednesday morning with PoPs below
20%.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
The full latitude eastern CONUS trough will continue to amplify
through the period. The front which will move across the area
early in the week will usher in much drier and cooler air through
Thursday, with the possibility of reaching some record morning
lows. The long standing records for this period at Tallahassee
are:

July 30 - 67 (1927)
July 31 - 63 (1896)
Aug 1 - 64 (1993)

Expect generally dry and relatively cool conditions for Wednesday
and Thursday with very low PoPs. Thursday and Friday morning lows,
July 31st and Aug 1st, will range from 65-70.

By late Thursday, moisture will begin to increase once again across
the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the main
upper trough moves into the forecast area. For Friday through the
weekend expect a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. The increased convection for the end
of the week and weekend will keep high temperatures in the 85 to
90 range across the area.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday] Expect VFR conditions into the early
afternoon at all terminals. Thunderstorms will likely impact all
terminals during the afternoon and evening hours, spreading from
north to south. A few a these storms could have very strong wind
gusts. Activity should be south of all terminals by around 02Z
tonight.


.Marine...
The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the south
and the approaching cold front to the north will maintain
westerly winds at exercise caution levels at times through
tonight. Winds will gradually diminish and become offshore by
Tuesday night into Wednesday.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next couple of days.
Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front
and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity
values dropping into the lower 30s.


.Hydrology...
Thunderstorms along a cold front could bring some locally heavy
rainfall to the area this afternoon and this evening, but the
system will remain progressive and widespread impacts from heavy
rain are not expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   98  73  94  66  93 /  50  60  10   0  10
Panama City   90  76  92  72  91 /  50  60  10   0  10
Dothan        96  69  92  66  90 /  70  40   0   0  10
Albany        97  71  91  66  92 /  70  40   0   0  10
Valdosta      99  72  93  65  93 /  50  60  10   0  10
Cross City    93  76  94  67  93 /  30  50  30  10  10
Apalachicola  90  76  92  70  90 /  40  50  20   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-
     Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-
     Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien-
     Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas.

AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281426
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1026 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND
THIS WILL DELAY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHOWED DRY AIR REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND MOVING INTO FORT
MYERS AND EASTWARD INTO HENDRY AND GLADES COUNTIES. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF STORMS TODAY...AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO BROWARD COUNTY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IT WILL BE HOT TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES OF 100-105.
TEMPS WERE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING AS IT LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH A RATHER DRY REGIME EXISTS OVER THE REGION...TONGUE OF
BETTER MOISTURE...NEAR 2" PWATS JUST OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY HAVE
MIXED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...THE DRIEST AIR
WHICH WAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA HAS DRIFTED WEST. THIS HAS
ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SEEP SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND WITH A STRONGER MORE CONSISTENT WEST WIND...MIGHT BE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TODAY OF NEAR BEACH STORM DEVELOPMENT THAN
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS EVEN INTO BROWARD COUNTY. DESPITE THIS...CHCS
ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO
ADD A VCTS GROUP BASED ON EVOLUTION AT KFLL/KFXE LATER TODAY.
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE VCTS REMAINS VALID AT KPBI.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD RESULT
IN REDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES LIKELY
HAVING THE MOST COVERAGE WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.

THERE IS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CONTINENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND APPROACHING THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GUIDANCE BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN
LONGER. THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED SO FAR IS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH FORECAST PWAT`S FOR WEDNESDAY ABOUT TWO INCHES. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL
VARIATIONS FAVORING MORE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUIDANCE DID HINT AT MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY BUT FOR NOW SCALED
BACK THE COVERAGE UNTIL THE EVENT IS CLOSER AND THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  77  92  78 /  30  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  93  80 /  20  20  40  30
MIAMI            94  79  91  79 /  20  10  40  30
NAPLES           91  79  91  79 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KTBW 281357
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
957 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
WESTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWARD PUSHING COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/ALABAMA BY THIS
EVENING...KEEPING A BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA/TSRA MAY
ALSO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT NEAR ATLANTA
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SLOWLY PUSH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS TODAY AS THE WEST WINDS BECOME 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL SINK SOUTH AND DISSIPATE BRINGING LESSER EFFECTS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. AFTER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ON TUESDAY AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KNOTS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS. HEADLINES...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS...WHICH MAY PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  80  91  78 /  30  40  50  30
FMY  93  76  92  76 /  30  20  40  50
GIF  93  76  93  75 /  20  10  50  30
SRQ  92  79  91  78 /  20  40  50  40
BKV  93  76  93  71 /  30  40  50  30
SPG  92  82  90  78 /  20  40  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 281357
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
957 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
WESTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWARD PUSHING COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS NORTHERN
GEORGIA AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/ALABAMA BY THIS
EVENING...KEEPING A BREEZY WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT...SO NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. SHRA/TSRA MAY
ALSO IMPACT THE TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A COLD FRONT NEAR ATLANTA
WILL MOVE SOUTH AND SLOWLY PUSH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN
WATERS TODAY AS THE WEST WINDS BECOME 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE BOUNDARY
WILL SINK SOUTH AND DISSIPATE BRINGING LESSER EFFECTS ON THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. AFTER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS ON TUESDAY AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE TO 10 KNOTS BY
WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS. HEADLINES...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS TODAY FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS...WHICH MAY PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  80  91  78 /  30  40  50  30
FMY  93  76  92  76 /  30  20  40  50
GIF  93  76  93  75 /  20  10  50  30
SRQ  92  79  91  78 /  20  40  50  40
BKV  93  76  93  71 /  30  40  50  30
SPG  92  82  90  78 /  20  40  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
     MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JELSEMA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY
DECISION SUPPORT...GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KJAX 281336
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
936 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SE GA...

...RECORD MAX MINS THIS MORNING AT GNV AND AMG...

.UPDATE...A MUGGY HUMID START TO THE DAY WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND A LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF THE WARM GOMEX.
RECORD MAX MIN TEMPS WERE REACHED THIS MORNING:

SITE NEW RECORD PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
GNV 77 76/1992
AMG 78 76/2011

BOTH JAX AND SSI CAME WITHIN 1 DEG OF TYING THE RECORD MAX MIN
TEMP FOR THE DATE AT 79.

A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER THE GULF COAST
MOVING INLAND OVER MARION COUNTY WITH INCREASED WLY FLOW AROUND
25 KTS NEAR 1000 FT AGL PER THE 12Z JAX RAOB. VISIBLE SATELLITE
ALSO SHOWED ENHANCED CU POPPING OVER THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE FL ATLANTIC COAST WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY SHALLOW IN
NATURE GIVEN STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING AND ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR PER THE TAE/JAX RAOBS THIS MORNING.

AS AFTN APPROACHES...EXPECT MORE POPCORN SHOWERS WILL FORM ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. IN ADDITION TO INCREASED
MECHANICAL FORCING...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN DEEP LAYER DESTABILIZATION
WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -7 DEG. WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S AND LOW/MID 70 DEW PTS...IN ADDITION TO THE SWELTERING
HEAT TODAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG AFTN
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING WHERE FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST AS THE
BOUNDARY NEARS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THROUGH 00Z. SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOW INCREASED BULK SHEAR AND FAT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...SO IN ADDITION TO THE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL
ZONES TODAY DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRY
AIR...ALSO BELIEVE STORMS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
DROPPING HAIL.

850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR -19 DEG C...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WITH INCREASED MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEG RANGE FOR MOST ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. BREEZY WEST WINDS 15G20KT EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...WSW WINDS 10-15 KTS TODAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. ANOTHER SCEC
EXPECTED OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  71  93  66 /  40  50  10  10
SSI  96  77  90  75 /  30  40  20  10
JAX  97  76  93  71 /  30  30  30  20
SGJ  96  78  91  74 /  20  30  40  40
GNV  94  75  93  70 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  94  76  93  71 /  30  30  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BAKER-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH






000
FXUS62 KJAX 281336
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
936 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...HEAT ADVISORY AND SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SE GA...

...RECORD MAX MINS THIS MORNING AT GNV AND AMG...

.UPDATE...A MUGGY HUMID START TO THE DAY WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND A LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF OF THE WARM GOMEX.
RECORD MAX MIN TEMPS WERE REACHED THIS MORNING:

SITE NEW RECORD PREVIOUS RECORD/YEAR
GNV 77 76/1992
AMG 78 76/2011

BOTH JAX AND SSI CAME WITHIN 1 DEG OF TYING THE RECORD MAX MIN
TEMP FOR THE DATE AT 79.

A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WERE ALREADY BREAKING OUT OVER THE GULF COAST
MOVING INLAND OVER MARION COUNTY WITH INCREASED WLY FLOW AROUND
25 KTS NEAR 1000 FT AGL PER THE 12Z JAX RAOB. VISIBLE SATELLITE
ALSO SHOWED ENHANCED CU POPPING OVER THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE RIVER
VALLEY. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRACK
TOWARD THE FL ATLANTIC COAST WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY SHALLOW IN
NATURE GIVEN STRONG MID LEVEL CAPPING AND ABUNDANT MID LEVEL DRY
AIR PER THE TAE/JAX RAOBS THIS MORNING.

AS AFTN APPROACHES...EXPECT MORE POPCORN SHOWERS WILL FORM ACROSS
INTERIOR SE GA AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. IN ADDITION TO INCREASED
MECHANICAL FORCING...THERE HAS ALSO BEEN DEEP LAYER DESTABILIZATION
WITH 500 MB TEMPS NEAR -7 DEG. WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS IN THE
MID/UPPER 90S AND LOW/MID 70 DEW PTS...IN ADDITION TO THE SWELTERING
HEAT TODAY THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG AFTN
STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SE GA DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY/EARLY EVENING WHERE FRONTAL FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST AS THE
BOUNDARY NEARS THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN THROUGH 00Z. SHORT RANGE
MODELS SHOW INCREASED BULK SHEAR AND FAT CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH
ZONE...SO IN ADDITION TO THE DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS ALL
ZONES TODAY DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND LOW/MID LEVEL DRY
AIR...ALSO BELIEVE STORMS WILL HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
DROPPING HAIL.

850 MB TEMPS WERE NEAR -19 DEG C...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
WITH INCREASED MOIST FLOW OFF OF THE GULF TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY LOOKS ON TRACK WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEG RANGE FOR MOST ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH TEMPO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTORMS LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING. BREEZY WEST WINDS 15G20KT EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...WSW WINDS 10-15 KTS TODAY WITH SEAS 2-4 FT. ANOTHER SCEC
EXPECTED OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  98  71  93  66 /  40  50  10  10
SSI  96  77  90  75 /  30  40  20  10
JAX  97  76  93  71 /  30  30  30  20
SGJ  96  78  91  74 /  20  30  40  40
GNV  94  75  93  70 /  30  30  30  20
OCF  94  76  93  71 /  30  30  50  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BAKER-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-FLAGLER-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     PUTNAM-ST JOHNS-SUWANNEE.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-ECHOLS-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND
     GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KMLB 281246
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
845 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SLOWLY CHANGING TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL EAST COAST
TROUGH DEEPENS AND PUSHES ANOTHER USUAL SUMMER FRONT INTO FLORIDA
LATER TODAY.

WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO DEVELOP IN THE 15-20KTS OF WESTERLY FLOW THE 915MHZ
PROFILERS ARE SHOWING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WON`T RULE OUT IT DEVELOPING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS ON
THE TREASURE COAST.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER
OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6"-1.7" AND TEMPS ALOFT A LESS THAN IDEAL
+9/+10C AT 700 MB. DESPITE THIS THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING ONTO THE WEST FLORIDA COAST ALONG SEVERAL CONVERGENCE
BANDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
WILL BE THE INITIATORS OF ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY AND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. HOWEVER OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OT REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER COVERAGE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH
ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE.

WITH LOWER RAIN COVERAGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW IT WILL BE A HOT AND
MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED A FEW UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ISOLD SHRA VCNTY KLEE AFTER 14Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND WITH A FEW TSRA VCNTY ORLANDO METRO AND KDAB AFTER 17Z.
WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG COAST FROM KTIX SOUTHWARDS AFTER 19Z WITH
BEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF A KOBE-KVRB LINE. DUE TO LOWER
COVERAGE...HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND EVEN VCTS
IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE INTO
THIS EVENING....INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
OFFSHORE AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR...LASCODY











000
FXUS62 KMLB 281246
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
845 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN SLOWLY CHANGING TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL EAST COAST
TROUGH DEEPENS AND PUSHES ANOTHER USUAL SUMMER FRONT INTO FLORIDA
LATER TODAY.

WHILE THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO DEVELOP IN THE 15-20KTS OF WESTERLY FLOW THE 915MHZ
PROFILERS ARE SHOWING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...WON`T RULE OUT IT DEVELOPING ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS ON
THE TREASURE COAST.

MORNING SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER
OF DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWATS AROUND 1.6"-1.7" AND TEMPS ALOFT A LESS THAN IDEAL
+9/+10C AT 700 MB. DESPITE THIS THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING ONTO THE WEST FLORIDA COAST ALONG SEVERAL CONVERGENCE
BANDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THESE
WILL BE THE INITIATORS OF ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY AND THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. HOWEVER OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OT REMAIN
ISOLATED...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER COVERAGE AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH
ACTIVITY IN COMBINATION WITH THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE BREEZE.

WITH LOWER RAIN COVERAGE AND OFFSHORE FLOW IT WILL BE A HOT AND
MUGGY DAY ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED A FEW UPPER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR. DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. ISOLD SHRA VCNTY KLEE AFTER 14Z AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
MOVES INLAND WITH A FEW TSRA VCNTY ORLANDO METRO AND KDAB AFTER 17Z.
WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG COAST FROM KTIX SOUTHWARDS AFTER 19Z WITH
BEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF A KOBE-KVRB LINE. DUE TO LOWER
COVERAGE...HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW AND EVEN VCTS
IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3 FEET OFFSHORE INTO
THIS EVENING....INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET
OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LOWER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH
OFFSHORE AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

FORECAST/AVIATION...MOSES
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR...LASCODY










000
FXUS62 KKEY 281243
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
845 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 800 AM
DETAILS AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST MID AND UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
GEORGIA. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE
AND UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM THE CENTER OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE GULF TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE NEXT
MID AND UPPER TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW CENTER
IS AMBLING WESTWARD AT 22 NORTH 64 WEST.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 800 AM DETAILS AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT SNAKING RATHER UN-CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAR SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS
BOTH THE TENNESSEE AND RED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...FROM LOWE PRESSURE NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOCALLY...A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.
LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS FROM THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN CONTINUED TO ILLUSTRATED INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY INFILTRATING MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST
ILLUSTRATED BOTH A MODERATELY MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO
5000 FEET AGL...BECOMING VARIABLE UP TO 25 KFT. THE COLUMN HAD
MOISTENED UP .52 OR MORE THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN ONLY 12 HOURS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 800 AM...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAD ALREADY
RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. KEY WEST
RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY ECHOES ATTM. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE
FLORIDA REEF AND IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY ARE RECORDING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY...DESPITE A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF TODAY...INTRODUCTION OF
MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE IS
INDICATED BY BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL
AS CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT DATA JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE KEYS. THE WEAKER AND LIGHT LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS FAVOR
CUMULUS CLOUD FORMATION...GIVEN PWAT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES.
BUT THERE ARE ONLY A FEW BOUNDARIES AWAY FROM THE KEYS AND GIVEN
VERY LITTLE STORM MOTION STILL THINK THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER...ALONG THE
KEYS AND THE IMMEDIATE FLORIDA BAY...NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...AND IN HAWK CHANNEL...CUMULUS CLOUD
LINES MAY BECOME WELL DEVELOPED DURING THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A LATE MORNING MAY BE PERFORMED PENDING ADDITIONAL
SATELLITE OBSERVATION.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT EASTERLY EARLY WILL BECOME VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5
KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WEAR YOUR
SUNSCREEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................RIZZO
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KKEY 281243
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
845 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 800 AM
DETAILS AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST MID AND UPPER TROUGH SITUATED ALONG THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS
GEORGIA. TO THE SOUTH OF THAT...THE AXIS OF A DEEP AND WARM MIDDLE
AND UPPER RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM THE CENTER OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE GULF TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ACROSS THE TROPICS...THE NEXT
MID AND UPPER TUTT (TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH) LOW CENTER
IS AMBLING WESTWARD AT 22 NORTH 64 WEST.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700 MB) LATEST
IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 800 AM DETAILS AN ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT SNAKING RATHER UN-CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAR SOUTHWESTWARD TO ACROSS
BOTH THE TENNESSEE AND RED RIVER VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...FROM LOWE PRESSURE NEAR LAKE ERIE. LOCALLY...A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.
LATEST MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS FROM THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN CONTINUED TO ILLUSTRATED INCREASING LOWER TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ALREADY INFILTRATING MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE 12Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST
ILLUSTRATED BOTH A MODERATELY MOIST LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
PROFILE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO
5000 FEET AGL...BECOMING VARIABLE UP TO 25 KFT. THE COLUMN HAD
MOISTENED UP .52 OR MORE THAN ONE HALF OF AN INCH IN ONLY 12 HOURS.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 800 AM...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH
OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND
SURROUNDING WATERS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAD ALREADY
RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. KEY WEST
RADAR WAS DEVOID OF ANY ECHOES ATTM. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE
FLORIDA REEF AND IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA BAY ARE RECORDING LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AOA 5 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...REST OF TODAY...DESPITE A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE BALANCE OF TODAY...INTRODUCTION OF
MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE IS
INDICATED BY BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS WELL
AS CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT DATA JUST UPSTREAM OF
THE KEYS. THE WEAKER AND LIGHT LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WINDS FAVOR
CUMULUS CLOUD FORMATION...GIVEN PWAT BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES.
BUT THERE ARE ONLY A FEW BOUNDARIES AWAY FROM THE KEYS AND GIVEN
VERY LITTLE STORM MOTION STILL THINK THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS. HOWEVER...ALONG THE
KEYS AND THE IMMEDIATE FLORIDA BAY...NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...AND IN HAWK CHANNEL...CUMULUS CLOUD
LINES MAY BECOME WELL DEVELOPED DURING THIS AFTERNOON. HENCE ITS
POSSIBLE THAT A LATE MORNING MAY BE PERFORMED PENDING ADDITIONAL
SATELLITE OBSERVATION.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT EASTERLY EARLY WILL BECOME VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5
KNOTS OR LESS ACROSS ALL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WEAR YOUR
SUNSCREEN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1916...7.14 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 28TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 98
YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS IS THE WETTEST DAY EVER RECORDED IN
KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF JULY. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL............FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....................RIZZO
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION............FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST









000
FXUS62 KMFL 281149 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH A RATHER DRY REGIME EXISTS OVER THE REGION...TONGUE OF
BETTER MOISTURE...NEAR 2" PWATS JUST OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY HAVE
MIXED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...THE DRIEST AIR
WHICH WAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA HAS DRIFTED WEST. THIS HAS
ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SEEP SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND WITH A STRONGER MORE CONSISTENT WEST WIND...MIGHT BE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TODAY OF NEAR BEACH STORM DEVELOPMENT THAN
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS EVEN INTO BROWARD COUNTY. DESPITE THIS...CHCS
ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO
ADD A VCTS GROUP BASED ON EVOLUTION AT KFLL/KFXE LATER TODAY.
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE VCTS REMAINS VALID AT KPBI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD RESULT
IN REDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES LIKELY
HAVING THE MOST COVERAGE WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.

THERE IS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CONTINENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND APPROACHING THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GUIDANCE BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN
LONGER. THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED SO FAR IS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH FORECAST PWAT`S FOR WEDNESDAY ABOUT TWO INCHES. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL
VARIATIONS FAVORING MORE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUIDANCE DID HINT AT MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY BUT FOR NOW SCALED
BACK THE COVERAGE UNTIL THE EVENT IS CLOSER AND THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  92  78 /  40  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  93  80 /  30  20  40  30
MIAMI            93  79  91  79 /  20  10  40  30
NAPLES           90  79  91  79 /  30  20  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281149 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH A RATHER DRY REGIME EXISTS OVER THE REGION...TONGUE OF
BETTER MOISTURE...NEAR 2" PWATS JUST OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY HAVE
MIXED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY. ALSO...THE DRIEST AIR
WHICH WAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA HAS DRIFTED WEST. THIS HAS
ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SEEP SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND WITH A STRONGER MORE CONSISTENT WEST WIND...MIGHT BE A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TODAY OF NEAR BEACH STORM DEVELOPMENT THAN
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS EVEN INTO BROWARD COUNTY. DESPITE THIS...CHCS
ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM FOR VCTS IN THE TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO
ADD A VCTS GROUP BASED ON EVOLUTION AT KFLL/KFXE LATER TODAY.
CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE VCTS REMAINS VALID AT KPBI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD RESULT
IN REDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES LIKELY
HAVING THE MOST COVERAGE WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.

THERE IS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CONTINENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND APPROACHING THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GUIDANCE BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN
LONGER. THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED SO FAR IS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH FORECAST PWAT`S FOR WEDNESDAY ABOUT TWO INCHES. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL
VARIATIONS FAVORING MORE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUIDANCE DID HINT AT MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY BUT FOR NOW SCALED
BACK THE COVERAGE UNTIL THE EVENT IS CLOSER AND THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  92  78 /  40  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  93  80 /  30  20  40  30
MIAMI            93  79  91  79 /  20  10  40  30
NAPLES           90  79  91  79 /  30  20  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 281149
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH A RATHER DRY REGIME EXISTS OVER THE REGION...TONGUE OF
BETTER MOISTURE...NEAR 2" PWATS...AND ABOVE PWATS JUST OFF PALM
BEACH COUNTY HAVE MIXED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY.
ALSO...THE DRIEST AIR WHICH WAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA HAS
DRIFTED WEST. THIS HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SEEP
SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WITH A STRONGER MORE CONSISTENT
WEST WIND...MIGHT BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TODAY OF NEAR BEACH
STORM DEVELOPMENT THAN YESTERDAY...PERHAPS EVEN INTO BROWARD
COUNTY. DESPITE THIS...CHCS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM FOR VCTS IN
THE TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD A VCTS GROUP BASED ON EVOLUTION AT
KFLL/KFXE LATER TODAY. CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE VCTS REMAINS
VALID AT KPBI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD RESULT
IN REDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES LIKELY
HAVING THE MOST COVERAGE WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.

THERE IS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CONTINENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND APPROACHING THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GUIDANCE BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN
LONGER. THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED SO FAR IS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH FORECAST PWAT`S FOR WEDNESDAY ABOUT TWO INCHES. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL
VARIATIONS FAVORING MORE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUIDANCE DID HINT AT MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY BUT FOR NOW SCALED
BACK THE COVERAGE UNTIL THE EVENT IS CLOSER AND THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  92  78 /  40  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  93  80 /  30  20  40  30
MIAMI            93  79  91  79 /  20  10  40  30
NAPLES           90  79  91  79 /  30  20  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 281149
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...

ALTHOUGH A RATHER DRY REGIME EXISTS OVER THE REGION...TONGUE OF
BETTER MOISTURE...NEAR 2" PWATS...AND ABOVE PWATS JUST OFF PALM
BEACH COUNTY HAVE MIXED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY.
ALSO...THE DRIEST AIR WHICH WAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA HAS
DRIFTED WEST. THIS HAS ALLOWED SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE TO SEEP
SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND WITH A STRONGER MORE CONSISTENT
WEST WIND...MIGHT BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE TODAY OF NEAR BEACH
STORM DEVELOPMENT THAN YESTERDAY...PERHAPS EVEN INTO BROWARD
COUNTY. DESPITE THIS...CHCS ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM FOR VCTS IN
THE TAFS...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD A VCTS GROUP BASED ON EVOLUTION AT
KFLL/KFXE LATER TODAY. CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE VCTS REMAINS
VALID AT KPBI.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING
ACROSS FLORIDA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD RESULT
IN REDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE LATEST SUITE OF
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES LIKELY
HAVING THE MOST COVERAGE WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.

THERE IS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE CONTINENT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND APPROACHING THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE GUIDANCE BEING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BOUNDARY COULD LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THURSDAY AND THE MOISTURE COULD LINGER EVEN
LONGER. THE MAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED SO FAR IS AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH FORECAST PWAT`S FOR WEDNESDAY ABOUT TWO INCHES. THE
CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY WITH DIURNAL
VARIATIONS FAVORING MORE COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUIDANCE DID HINT AT MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY BUT FOR NOW SCALED
BACK THE COVERAGE UNTIL THE EVENT IS CLOSER AND THERE IS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
BUT GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THERE COULD BE PERIODS WHERE WINDS
ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THROUGH MID WEEK ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS WITH THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS
FORECAST TO HAVE SEAS AROUND 3 FEET POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  92  78 /  40  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  93  80 /  30  20  40  30
MIAMI            93  79  91  79 /  20  10  40  30
NAPLES           90  79  91  79 /  30  20  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




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