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000
FXUS62 KTAE 192001
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
401 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AS OF 2 PM EDT, A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THE STORMS PASS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. SO FAR MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN. SOME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES
OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES. RAIN WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.


.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

AN UL +PV ANOMALY WILL SWEEP EWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS NRN MS
AND AL MONDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING A LOT
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
OFFSHORE, DUE TO THE DRIER AIR WITH TOMORROW`S SYSTEM THAN WE SAW
WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
TOMORROW, WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. WITH DRIER AIR TOMORROW THAN TODAY, WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO THE MID 80S AND
CREATE SOME INSTABILITY. MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE PEAKING AROUND 1000-
1500 J/KG IN AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ARE FAIRLY LOW, AROUND 20-40%, SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING IN A COOLER,
DRIER AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

THE UNSETTLED EL-NINOISH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE AROUND 20-40%
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS STAYING FAIRLY WARM, ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY]  A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS JUST EAST
OF TLH HEADING TOWARDS VLD. VLD WILL LIKELY SEE STRONG WINDS AS THIS
LINE PASSES. ELSEWHERE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS PASSED, BUT
RAIN AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS TODAY WILL LOWER, THOUGH WINDS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS. AFTER THAT, WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LOWER TO NORMAL LEVELS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER A WETTING RAIN TODAY, RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED AROUND 1-2" OF RAIN TODAY WITH SOME AREAS
IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FL PANHANDLE RECEIVING 3-5" OF RAIN.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN RISES ALONG MANY OF OUR AREA RIVERS, WITH MANY
REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT
CARRYVILLE IS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND IS FORECAST TO RISE TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT BRUCE TOMORROW. THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT
BLOUNTSTOWN IS ALSO FORECAST TO RISE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW
AND THE KINCHAFOONNEE CREEK AT DAWSON IS FORECAST TO RISE TO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  86  62  81  58 /  20  30  10   0  10
PANAMA CITY   73  78  64  74  65 /  20  30   0   0  10
DOTHAN        67  82  58  78  58 /  20  20  10   0  10
ALBANY        67  83  59  78  58 /  20  30  10   0  10
VALDOSTA      68  86  60  78  57 /  20  30  20   0  10
CROSS CITY    70  86  63  81  59 /  30  40  20  10  10
APALACHICOLA  73  82  66  77  65 /  20  30  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 192001
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
401 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AS OF 2 PM EDT, A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THE STORMS PASS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. SO FAR MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN. SOME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES
OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES. RAIN WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.


.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

AN UL +PV ANOMALY WILL SWEEP EWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS NRN MS
AND AL MONDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING A LOT
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
OFFSHORE, DUE TO THE DRIER AIR WITH TOMORROW`S SYSTEM THAN WE SAW
WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
TOMORROW, WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. WITH DRIER AIR TOMORROW THAN TODAY, WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO THE MID 80S AND
CREATE SOME INSTABILITY. MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE PEAKING AROUND 1000-
1500 J/KG IN AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ARE FAIRLY LOW, AROUND 20-40%, SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING IN A COOLER,
DRIER AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

THE UNSETTLED EL-NINOISH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE AROUND 20-40%
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS STAYING FAIRLY WARM, ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY]  A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS JUST EAST
OF TLH HEADING TOWARDS VLD. VLD WILL LIKELY SEE STRONG WINDS AS THIS
LINE PASSES. ELSEWHERE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS PASSED, BUT
RAIN AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS TODAY WILL LOWER, THOUGH WINDS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS. AFTER THAT, WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LOWER TO NORMAL LEVELS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER A WETTING RAIN TODAY, RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED AROUND 1-2" OF RAIN TODAY WITH SOME AREAS
IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FL PANHANDLE RECEIVING 3-5" OF RAIN.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN RISES ALONG MANY OF OUR AREA RIVERS, WITH MANY
REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT
CARRYVILLE IS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND IS FORECAST TO RISE TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT BRUCE TOMORROW. THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT
BLOUNTSTOWN IS ALSO FORECAST TO RISE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW
AND THE KINCHAFOONNEE CREEK AT DAWSON IS FORECAST TO RISE TO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  86  62  81  58 /  20  30  10   0  10
PANAMA CITY   73  78  64  74  65 /  20  30   0   0  10
DOTHAN        67  82  58  78  58 /  20  20  10   0  10
ALBANY        67  83  59  78  58 /  20  30  10   0  10
VALDOSTA      68  86  60  78  57 /  20  30  20   0  10
CROSS CITY    70  86  63  81  59 /  30  40  20  10  10
APALACHICOLA  73  82  66  77  65 /  20  30  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 191954
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
354 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX PATTERN OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOWS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH LOWS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MID WEST
AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO AN
EXTENSIVE LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS PASSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEEP BOUNDARY
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO THE NET EFFECT OF THESE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PWAT
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORECAST STABILITY INDICES INDICATING A LOCALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. OVERALL THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MOST COVERAGE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ASSESSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANY POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE MOST LIKELY
THREATS BEING A POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND A CHANCE OF HAIL. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
AS ALWAYS WILL UPDATE THE POTENTIAL WITH ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.

BY TUESDAY A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FAVORING
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING
AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AGAIN SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH ATLANTIC SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET AND GULF SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. ON MONDAY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN
OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE WIND
FORECAST BY TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGIONAL WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  70  85 /  30  60  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  89  73  87 /  20  50  30  60
MIAMI            75  89  73  87 /  20  50  30  50
NAPLES           74  87  71  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191954
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
354 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX PATTERN OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOWS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH LOWS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MID WEST
AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO AN
EXTENSIVE LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS PASSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEEP BOUNDARY
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO THE NET EFFECT OF THESE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PWAT
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORECAST STABILITY INDICES INDICATING A LOCALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. OVERALL THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MOST COVERAGE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ASSESSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANY POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE MOST LIKELY
THREATS BEING A POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND A CHANCE OF HAIL. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
AS ALWAYS WILL UPDATE THE POTENTIAL WITH ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.

BY TUESDAY A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FAVORING
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING
AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AGAIN SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH ATLANTIC SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET AND GULF SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. ON MONDAY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN
OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE WIND
FORECAST BY TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGIONAL WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  70  85 /  30  60  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  89  73  87 /  20  50  30  60
MIAMI            75  89  73  87 /  20  50  30  50
NAPLES           74  87  71  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191954
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
354 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX PATTERN OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOWS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS
EXTENDS ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH LOWS IN THE CENTRAL CONUS AND MID WEST
AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO AN
EXTENSIVE LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF CONVECTION AND
THUNDERSTORMS PASSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
EASTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY...THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE DEEP BOUNDARY
MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY SINKING
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO FURTHER SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
THE EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SO THE NET EFFECT OF THESE SYNOPTIC
FEATURES WILL BE AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
INCREASING CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE PWAT
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.8 INCHES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORECAST STABILITY INDICES INDICATING A LOCALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. OVERALL THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE MOST COVERAGE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ASSESSING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ANY POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE MOST LIKELY
THREATS BEING A POTENTIAL FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING...DAMAGING WINDS
AND A CHANCE OF HAIL. AT THIS POINT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
AS ALWAYS WILL UPDATE THE POTENTIAL WITH ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE.

BY TUESDAY A SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FAVORING
AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. ON WEDNESDAY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUING
AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AGAIN SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND FORECAST FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH ATLANTIC SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET AND GULF SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. ON MONDAY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN
OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE WIND
FORECAST BY TUESDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
REGION...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
REGIONAL WATERS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  70  85 /  30  60  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  89  73  87 /  20  50  30  60
MIAMI            75  89  73  87 /  20  50  30  50
NAPLES           74  87  71  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 191953
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GULF AND
DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS MOVING INTO
OUR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS AT THIS TIME. THE HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
MOVES INTO OUR AREA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION
SHOULD FALL APART AS IT MOVES INLAND AND NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 WITH THIS SYSTEM. A FEW
OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL POP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND...BUT MAJORITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TONIGHT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT
WITH FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF DURING THE NIGHT AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE
ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AFFECTING MAINLY COASTAL AREAS.

ON MONDAY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR NORTH. SOME MORE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF AND THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY
MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
MESSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SOME
BETTER WEATHER NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO
SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.

THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE
PACKETS OF ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING TO ENERGIZE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL BE WITH US
THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE.

THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE ALTHOUGH GENERAL TROUGHING REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WEAK RIDGE IS DRAWN INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH...WHICH COULD BE SETTLING INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEAK RIDGE BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT ENERGY
TO OUR NORTH IS TOO LOW TO NOT MENTION AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH THE TAF SITES OF TPA AND PIE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND
RSW. A FEW MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS AND BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE TAF SITES OF TPA...PIE AND SRQ.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY VEER BACK TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FOR
MIDWEEK AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS AS WELL AS TAMPA BAY FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS AND ERC VALUES
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  83  72 /  30  30  60  50
FMY  89  74  89  72 /  10  20  50  30
GIF  90  71  86  69 /  30  20  60  30
SRQ  85  73  84  71 /  20  20  50  50
BKV  88  68  84  65 /  40  30  60  40
SPG  85  76  83  73 /  20  30  60  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 191953
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GULF AND
DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS MOVING INTO
OUR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS AT THIS TIME. THE HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
MOVES INTO OUR AREA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION
SHOULD FALL APART AS IT MOVES INLAND AND NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 WITH THIS SYSTEM. A FEW
OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL POP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND...BUT MAJORITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TONIGHT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT
WITH FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF DURING THE NIGHT AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE
ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AFFECTING MAINLY COASTAL AREAS.

ON MONDAY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR NORTH. SOME MORE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF AND THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY
MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
MESSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SOME
BETTER WEATHER NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO
SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.

THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE
PACKETS OF ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING TO ENERGIZE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL BE WITH US
THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE.

THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE ALTHOUGH GENERAL TROUGHING REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WEAK RIDGE IS DRAWN INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH...WHICH COULD BE SETTLING INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEAK RIDGE BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT ENERGY
TO OUR NORTH IS TOO LOW TO NOT MENTION AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH THE TAF SITES OF TPA AND PIE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND
RSW. A FEW MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS AND BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE TAF SITES OF TPA...PIE AND SRQ.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY VEER BACK TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FOR
MIDWEEK AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS AS WELL AS TAMPA BAY FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS AND ERC VALUES
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  83  72 /  30  30  60  50
FMY  89  74  89  72 /  10  20  50  30
GIF  90  71  86  69 /  30  20  60  30
SRQ  85  73  84  71 /  20  20  50  50
BKV  88  68  84  65 /  40  30  60  40
SPG  85  76  83  73 /  20  30  60  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 191953
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GULF AND
DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS MOVING INTO
OUR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS AT THIS TIME. THE HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
MOVES INTO OUR AREA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION
SHOULD FALL APART AS IT MOVES INLAND AND NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 WITH THIS SYSTEM. A FEW
OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL POP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND...BUT MAJORITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TONIGHT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT
WITH FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF DURING THE NIGHT AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE
ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AFFECTING MAINLY COASTAL AREAS.

ON MONDAY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR NORTH. SOME MORE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF AND THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY
MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
MESSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SOME
BETTER WEATHER NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO
SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.

THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE
PACKETS OF ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING TO ENERGIZE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL BE WITH US
THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE.

THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE ALTHOUGH GENERAL TROUGHING REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WEAK RIDGE IS DRAWN INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH...WHICH COULD BE SETTLING INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEAK RIDGE BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT ENERGY
TO OUR NORTH IS TOO LOW TO NOT MENTION AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH THE TAF SITES OF TPA AND PIE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND
RSW. A FEW MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS AND BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE TAF SITES OF TPA...PIE AND SRQ.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY VEER BACK TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FOR
MIDWEEK AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS AS WELL AS TAMPA BAY FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS AND ERC VALUES
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  83  72 /  30  30  60  50
FMY  89  74  89  72 /  10  20  50  30
GIF  90  71  86  69 /  30  20  60  30
SRQ  85  73  84  71 /  20  20  50  50
BKV  88  68  84  65 /  40  30  60  40
SPG  85  76  83  73 /  20  30  60  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 191953
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
353 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN GULF AND
DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND IS MOVING INTO
OUR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS AT THIS TIME. THE HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
MOVES INTO OUR AREA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO. SHOULD STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVE INTO THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION
SHOULD FALL APART AS IT MOVES INLAND AND NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY OF RAINFALL EAST OF INTERSTATE 75 WITH THIS SYSTEM. A FEW
OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD STILL POP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND...BUT MAJORITY OF THE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TONIGHT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT
WITH FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE GULF DURING THE NIGHT AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE
ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AFFECTING MAINLY COASTAL AREAS.

ON MONDAY DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE BOUNDARY JUST TO
OUR NORTH. SOME MORE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GULF AND THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP MORE SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S AND HIGHS ON MONDAY
MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
MESSY WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE RIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR SOME
BETTER WEATHER NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA...BUT OVERALL EXPECT TO
SEE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUDINESS AND ON AND OFF RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY.

THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL DRIVE
PACKETS OF ENERGY EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...HELPING TO ENERGIZE
THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL BE WITH US
THROUGH THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE.

THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BUILD A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE ALTHOUGH GENERAL TROUGHING REMAINS
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WEAK RIDGE IS DRAWN INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH...WHICH COULD BE SETTLING INTO OUR NORTHERN
ZONES LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WEAK RIDGE BEING STRONG ENOUGH TO DEFLECT ENERGY
TO OUR NORTH IS TOO LOW TO NOT MENTION AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION OUT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
REACH THE TAF SITES OF TPA AND PIE THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING SOME AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND
RSW. A FEW MORE SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WATERS AND BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE TAF SITES OF TPA...PIE AND SRQ.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL
FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY VEER BACK TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FOR
MIDWEEK AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL WATERS AS WELL AS TAMPA BAY FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEK AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT WITH WINDS AND ERC VALUES
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  83  72 /  30  30  60  50
FMY  89  74  89  72 /  10  20  50  30
GIF  90  71  86  69 /  30  20  60  30
SRQ  85  73  84  71 /  20  20  50  50
BKV  88  68  84  65 /  40  30  60  40
SPG  85  76  83  73 /  20  30  60  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 191947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SOUTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING INTO NE GULF AND
NORTH FL HAS BEEN WEAKENING RECENTLY AND HRRR/WRF MODELS INDICATE
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER SOME PRECIP/EMBEDDED STORM
ACTIVITY FROM THIS BAND MAY REACH LAKE COUNTY TOWARD SUNSET. AHEAD
OF THIS LINE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ISO/SCT STORMS FORMING
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. LATEST SFC OBS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN ABLE
TO HOLD ON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AT SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW INTO LATE DAY MAY PUSH WHAT SEA
BREEZE REMAINS OFFSHORE. IF SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED
INTO THIS EVENING. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE FOR STORMS INTO
THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. IF ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS DO
OCCUR ISO STRONG STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

RAIN CHANCES END BY MIDNIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

MONDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/W PUSHING THROUGH THE NRN
GULF AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM AND TO A DEGREE THE
WRF SHOW THIS BAND DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH AND PUSHING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION INTO THE AFT WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES/MOISTURE SOUTH OF ORLANDO. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND FOR
NOW WHICH KEEPS RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND 50-60 PERCENT.
SOME STRONG TO ISO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN
OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TUE...A COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL BRINGING SOME
DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TO 20
PERCENT NORTH OF ORLANDO AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES 40 TO 50 PERCENT FROM
OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST.

REST OF WEEK (PREVIOUS)...DEPARTURE OF STRONG UPR WIND MAXIMA WL BRING
EVOLUTION TO ZONAL PATTERN WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH DOWNSTREAM ACTING
TO STABILIZE AIRMASS...WITH SOME DRYING AS WELL OVER THE NORTH AT
MIDWEEK. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE
WL FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WED-THU WITH AT LEAST
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FCST LACKING ANY NOTABLE
PATTERN CHG AND OR DRYING OF THE AMBIENT AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING BAND OF CONVECTION THAT IS
WEAKENING OVER THE NE GULF. THIS BAND MAY REACH AREAS WEST OF I-4
TOWARD SUNSET...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS TO CIG/VIS MAINLY AT
KLEE. CONVECTION THEN DIMINISHING/PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO LATE EVENING
WITH MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS INTO
THE AFT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...S/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE W/SW
INTO LATE MON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FEET. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFT/EVE...
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

TUE-THU...WEAK FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THE FL PENINSULA TUE SO
WIND FLOW WILL BE W/NW 10 KNOTS. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MID WEEK WILL
BECOME ONSHORE AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  84  68  80 /  40  40  20  20
MCO  70  87  69  83 /  20  50  20  30
MLB  71  87  70  82 /  40  60  30  30
VRB  70  87  70  83 /  40  60  30  50
LEE  70  84  68  82 /  20  50  20  20
SFB  70  85  69  83 /  30  50  20  20
ORL  71  86  69  83 /  20  50  20  30
FPR  69  87  70  83 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 191947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SOUTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING INTO NE GULF AND
NORTH FL HAS BEEN WEAKENING RECENTLY AND HRRR/WRF MODELS INDICATE
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER SOME PRECIP/EMBEDDED STORM
ACTIVITY FROM THIS BAND MAY REACH LAKE COUNTY TOWARD SUNSET. AHEAD
OF THIS LINE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ISO/SCT STORMS FORMING
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. LATEST SFC OBS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN ABLE
TO HOLD ON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AT SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW INTO LATE DAY MAY PUSH WHAT SEA
BREEZE REMAINS OFFSHORE. IF SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED
INTO THIS EVENING. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE FOR STORMS INTO
THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. IF ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS DO
OCCUR ISO STRONG STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

RAIN CHANCES END BY MIDNIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

MONDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/W PUSHING THROUGH THE NRN
GULF AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM AND TO A DEGREE THE
WRF SHOW THIS BAND DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH AND PUSHING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION INTO THE AFT WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES/MOISTURE SOUTH OF ORLANDO. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND FOR
NOW WHICH KEEPS RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND 50-60 PERCENT.
SOME STRONG TO ISO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN
OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TUE...A COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL BRINGING SOME
DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TO 20
PERCENT NORTH OF ORLANDO AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES 40 TO 50 PERCENT FROM
OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST.

REST OF WEEK (PREVIOUS)...DEPARTURE OF STRONG UPR WIND MAXIMA WL BRING
EVOLUTION TO ZONAL PATTERN WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH DOWNSTREAM ACTING
TO STABILIZE AIRMASS...WITH SOME DRYING AS WELL OVER THE NORTH AT
MIDWEEK. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE
WL FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WED-THU WITH AT LEAST
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FCST LACKING ANY NOTABLE
PATTERN CHG AND OR DRYING OF THE AMBIENT AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING BAND OF CONVECTION THAT IS
WEAKENING OVER THE NE GULF. THIS BAND MAY REACH AREAS WEST OF I-4
TOWARD SUNSET...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS TO CIG/VIS MAINLY AT
KLEE. CONVECTION THEN DIMINISHING/PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO LATE EVENING
WITH MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS INTO
THE AFT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...S/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE W/SW
INTO LATE MON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FEET. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFT/EVE...
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

TUE-THU...WEAK FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THE FL PENINSULA TUE SO
WIND FLOW WILL BE W/NW 10 KNOTS. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MID WEEK WILL
BECOME ONSHORE AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  84  68  80 /  40  40  20  20
MCO  70  87  69  83 /  20  50  20  30
MLB  71  87  70  82 /  40  60  30  30
VRB  70  87  70  83 /  40  60  30  50
LEE  70  84  68  82 /  20  50  20  20
SFB  70  85  69  83 /  30  50  20  20
ORL  71  86  69  83 /  20  50  20  30
FPR  69  87  70  83 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 191947
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SOUTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING INTO NE GULF AND
NORTH FL HAS BEEN WEAKENING RECENTLY AND HRRR/WRF MODELS INDICATE
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. HOWEVER SOME PRECIP/EMBEDDED STORM
ACTIVITY FROM THIS BAND MAY REACH LAKE COUNTY TOWARD SUNSET. AHEAD
OF THIS LINE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ISO/SCT STORMS FORMING
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST FROM BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. LATEST SFC OBS SHOW THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN ABLE
TO HOLD ON RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AT SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER AN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW INTO LATE DAY MAY PUSH WHAT SEA
BREEZE REMAINS OFFSHORE. IF SO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED
INTO THIS EVENING. FOR NOW WILL HOLD ONTO A CHANCE FOR STORMS INTO
THE EVENING MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. IF ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS DO
OCCUR ISO STRONG STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

RAIN CHANCES END BY MIDNIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS PUSHING
OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

MONDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER MID LEVEL S/W PUSHING THROUGH THE NRN
GULF AHEAD OF WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE FL PENINSULA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM AND TO A DEGREE THE
WRF SHOW THIS BAND DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH AND PUSHING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION INTO THE AFT WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES/MOISTURE SOUTH OF ORLANDO. HAVE LEANED TOWARD A BLEND FOR
NOW WHICH KEEPS RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY CONSISTENT AROUND 50-60 PERCENT.
SOME STRONG TO ISO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN
OCCUR OUT AHEAD OF ANY CONVECTION OVER THE GULF. MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TUE...A COOL FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL BRINGING SOME
DRIER AIR AND TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH TO 20
PERCENT NORTH OF ORLANDO AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. MOISTURE LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES 40 TO 50 PERCENT FROM
OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST.

REST OF WEEK (PREVIOUS)...DEPARTURE OF STRONG UPR WIND MAXIMA WL BRING
EVOLUTION TO ZONAL PATTERN WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH DOWNSTREAM ACTING
TO STABILIZE AIRMASS...WITH SOME DRYING AS WELL OVER THE NORTH AT
MIDWEEK. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE
WL FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WED-THU WITH AT LEAST
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FCST LACKING ANY NOTABLE
PATTERN CHG AND OR DRYING OF THE AMBIENT AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST
WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF APPROACHING BAND OF CONVECTION THAT IS
WEAKENING OVER THE NE GULF. THIS BAND MAY REACH AREAS WEST OF I-4
TOWARD SUNSET...PRODUCING ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS TO CIG/VIS MAINLY AT
KLEE. CONVECTION THEN DIMINISHING/PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO LATE EVENING
WITH MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS INTO
THE AFT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MONDAY...S/SW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE W/SW
INTO LATE MON AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 2-4 FEET. MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS THIS EVENING AND TOMORROW AFT/EVE...
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

TUE-THU...WEAK FRONT PROGGED TO MOVE DOWN THE FL PENINSULA TUE SO
WIND FLOW WILL BE W/NW 10 KNOTS. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT MID WEEK WILL
BECOME ONSHORE AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  84  68  80 /  40  40  20  20
MCO  70  87  69  83 /  20  50  20  30
MLB  71  87  70  82 /  40  60  30  30
VRB  70  87  70  83 /  40  60  30  50
LEE  70  84  68  82 /  20  50  20  20
SFB  70  85  69  83 /  30  50  20  20
ORL  71  86  69  83 /  20  50  20  30
FPR  69  87  70  83 /  40  60  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....KELLY


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 191827
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
227 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON KBYX DOPPLER RADAR THUS FAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A SLIGHT LULL IN WINDS EARLIER THIS MORNING...WINDS
HAVE MODERATED ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR ABOVE 85 DEGREES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN AT
THIS HOUR.

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ALIGNED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY AS A TROUGH
SAGS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED DIP NEAR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LAYERS IN THE SHORT
TERM...DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DRAWN TOWARDS THE KEYS. THE LATEST
GFS TABULAR POPS HAVE GONE UP IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT WILL KEEP OUR
GRIDDED PROBABILITY BELOW THAT...BASED MOSTLY ON THE LACK OF ANY
ROBUST CONVECTION NEARBY OR WELL UPSTREAM. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE DEEP
LAYERED...BUT LOW AMPLITUDE...RIDGING IS FLATTENED. FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEPT A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ADVERTISED...BUT INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER AS A COUPLE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES.

THE FLOW RETURNS TO NEAR ZONAL AFTER MID WEEK AS HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN BECOMES RE-CENTERED
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LOWERED
THE GRIDDED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE PERIODS...AND WILL
HAVE NO MENTION IN UPCOMING ZONE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. A LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH SETTLE NEARBY THEN DISSIPATES.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS WEEK...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RECREATIONAL BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY PLEASANT ACROSS ALL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 20/12Z. CLOUD
STREETS AT FLIGHT LEVEL 015 TO 030 CROSSING THE ISLAND TERMINALS
WITH ORIENTATION FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN RETURNS FROM THE AUTOMATED
OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER...THESE CLOUD STREETS WILL BE NARROW WITH
LITTLE IMPACT THE OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1934...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 89 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THIS RECORD REMAINS STANDING 89 YEARS LATER.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  85  77  85 / 20 20 20 30
MARATHON  79  89  78  89 / 20 20 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 191827
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
227 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES ON KBYX DOPPLER RADAR THUS FAR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AFTER A SLIGHT LULL IN WINDS EARLIER THIS MORNING...WINDS
HAVE MODERATED ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR ABOVE 85 DEGREES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN AT
THIS HOUR.

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE ALIGNED ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS WILL SETTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY AS A TROUGH
SAGS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED DIP NEAR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE LOWER LAYERS IN THE SHORT
TERM...DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT BE DRAWN TOWARDS THE KEYS. THE LATEST
GFS TABULAR POPS HAVE GONE UP IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT WILL KEEP OUR
GRIDDED PROBABILITY BELOW THAT...BASED MOSTLY ON THE LACK OF ANY
ROBUST CONVECTION NEARBY OR WELL UPSTREAM. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS THE DEEP
LAYERED...BUT LOW AMPLITUDE...RIDGING IS FLATTENED. FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEPT A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
ADVERTISED...BUT INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDER AS A COUPLE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL IMPULSES SLIDE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES.

THE FLOW RETURNS TO NEAR ZONAL AFTER MID WEEK AS HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN BECOMES RE-CENTERED
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THROUGH THURSDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. RIDGING TRANSLATES
EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LOWERED
THE GRIDDED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE PERIODS...AND WILL
HAVE NO MENTION IN UPCOMING ZONE FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH BREEZE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM. A LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH SETTLE NEARBY THEN DISSIPATES.
ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS EARLY THIS WEEK...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...RECREATIONAL BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY PLEASANT ACROSS ALL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 20/12Z. CLOUD
STREETS AT FLIGHT LEVEL 015 TO 030 CROSSING THE ISLAND TERMINALS
WITH ORIENTATION FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MAY PRODUCE
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN RETURNS FROM THE AUTOMATED
OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER...THESE CLOUD STREETS WILL BE NARROW WITH
LITTLE IMPACT THE OPERATIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1934...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 89 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THIS RECORD REMAINS STANDING 89 YEARS LATER.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  85  77  85 / 20 20 20 30
MARATHON  79  89  78  89 / 20 20 20 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KMFL 191738
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...

THE FORECAST REASONING IS STILL VERY SIMILAR AS PREVIOUSLY. THE
ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE START OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN
DELAYED TO 20 AND 21Z. AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DELAY CONVECTION A
FEW MORE HOURS. ONCE CONVECTION GETS STARTED, IT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST. VCSH IS STILL INCLUDED FOR THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND APF DUE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT
OUTFLOWS COULD PROPAGATE INTO THIS REGION LATER THIS EVENING AND
POSSIBLY TRIGGER OTHER SHOWERS. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR PBI, FXE, AND
FLL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  70  85 /  30  60  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  89  73  87 /  20  50  30  60
MIAMI            75  89  73  87 /  20  50  30  50
NAPLES           74  87  71  86 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 191727
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
127 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...TORNADO WATCH TIL 8PM I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...
...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY...

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD AND OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BAND
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LINE...MAINLY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION BREAK OUT AHEAD OF SYSTEM
OVER OUR WRN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE STRONG/SEVERE CELLS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY COULD INTENSIFY AS
IT SPREADS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TIL 8PM.

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM AND 7PM...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE 68-70 MOST LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... FOR MONDAY...COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT LOW AND
MID LEVELS BRINGS IN DRIER AIR...AND AS A RESULT THE MODELS
DEVELOP CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIP COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN 30-40 POP FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
OUR AREA...AND ONCE AGAIN WE SHOULD HAVE FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MORE SW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND THIS WILL REDUCE
HELICITY...SO PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS. WARM AGAIN
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT
COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS OF
UPPER 70S SE GA...AROUND 80 I-10 CORRIDOR...AND LOW 80S GNV/OCF
LOOKS FINE. COOLER NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS 55-60 ACROSS
THE AREA...EXCEPT LOW 60S COAST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT THREATS THROUGH MONDAY...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE GIVEN NOT MUCH
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. STILL EXPECT WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN TEMPS AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WITH SEA BREEZES. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY STILL COME
OVER WEEKENDD... THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TRACK OF NEXT WEEK
SYSTEM AND WHERE THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL END UP.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN SQUALL LINE WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL FIELDS WITH
GAINESVILLE MOST LIKELY TO FEEL ITS IMPACT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
MOVE IN THERE BETWEEN 19-21 UTC WITH CEILINGS IN THE 2.5 KFT RANGE.

THE COAST FIELDS FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE THROUGH THE JACKSONVILLE METRO
AREA TO SAINT SIMONS ISLAND SHOULD SEE A CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEVELOPING
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT. EXPECT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN
2.5-5 KFT. THESE STORMS SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING BY 23OO
UTC AS THE WEAKENING SQUALL LINE MAKES ITS RUN AT THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE....WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CONDITIONS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY... WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING FOR REMAINDER OF WEEK.

.RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON...LOW RISK MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  85  60  77 /  30  30  20  10
SSI  69  82  65  75 /  30  30  20  10
JAX  69  85  64  79 /  30  30  20  10
SGJ  70  83  67  77 /  30  40  20  10
GNV  68  85  65  81 /  20  40  20  10
OCF  69  85  66  82 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 191727
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
127 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...TORNADO WATCH TIL 8PM I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD...
...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AGAIN MONDAY...

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR SHOWING AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TOWARD AND OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BAND
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY WAVE THIS
AFTERNOON. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AHEAD OF
SYSTEM TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LINE...MAINLY BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION BREAK OUT AHEAD OF SYSTEM
OVER OUR WRN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DISCRETE STRONG/SEVERE CELLS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY COULD INTENSIFY AS
IT SPREADS NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TORNADO WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TIL 8PM.

BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 2PM AND 7PM...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE 68-70 MOST LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... FOR MONDAY...COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. MORE WESTERLY FLOW AT LOW AND
MID LEVELS BRINGS IN DRIER AIR...AND AS A RESULT THE MODELS
DEVELOP CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIP COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN 30-40 POP FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN SPC HAS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
OUR AREA...AND ONCE AGAIN WE SHOULD HAVE FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF
MODERATE CAPE AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
WILL BE MORE SW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AND THIS WILL REDUCE
HELICITY...SO PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS. WARM AGAIN
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SOMEWHAT
COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPS OF
UPPER 70S SE GA...AROUND 80 I-10 CORRIDOR...AND LOW 80S GNV/OCF
LOOKS FINE. COOLER NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS 55-60 ACROSS
THE AREA...EXCEPT LOW 60S COAST.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT THREATS THROUGH MONDAY...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MEDIUM RANGE GIVEN NOT MUCH
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. STILL EXPECT WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH SOME INCREASE IN TEMPS AS WELL AS SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS WITH SEA BREEZES. BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY STILL COME
OVER WEEKENDD... THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO TRACK OF NEXT WEEK
SYSTEM AND WHERE THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL END UP.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN SQUALL LINE WELL WEST OF THE LOCAL FIELDS WITH
GAINESVILLE MOST LIKELY TO FEEL ITS IMPACT. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
MOVE IN THERE BETWEEN 19-21 UTC WITH CEILINGS IN THE 2.5 KFT RANGE.

THE COAST FIELDS FROM SAINT AUGUSTINE THROUGH THE JACKSONVILLE METRO
AREA TO SAINT SIMONS ISLAND SHOULD SEE A CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND THE DEVELOPING
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FRONT. EXPECT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
CONVECTION TO FIRE UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN
2.5-5 KFT. THESE STORMS SHOULD PASS OFFSHORE THIS EVENING BY 23OO
UTC AS THE WEAKENING SQUALL LINE MAKES ITS RUN AT THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE....WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CONDITIONS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE
OFFSHORE COMPONENT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY... WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE INTENSE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING FOR REMAINDER OF WEEK.

.RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK THIS AFTERNOON...LOW RISK MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  85  60  77 /  30  30  20  10
SSI  69  82  65  75 /  30  30  20  10
JAX  69  85  64  79 /  30  30  20  10
SGJ  70  83  67  77 /  30  40  20  10
GNV  68  85  65  81 /  20  40  20  10
OCF  69  85  66  82 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KTBW 191508
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1108 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN GULF AND DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES OUR AREA AS THE ENERGY MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. SHOULD STILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD MOVE AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE TAMPA BAY REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRIVE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY
INLAND AND NOT ALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF DURING THE NIGHT AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP SOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND LOWERED THEM SOME NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A
BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT LAKELAND THROUGH ABOUT
20Z...BUT OVERALL THREAT LOOKS LOW. OTHER CONVECTION WELL OUT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE TAF
SITES OF TPA AND PIE THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY VEER BACK TO SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FOR MIDWEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  82  71 /  30  20  70  60
FMY  89  73  87  72 /  10  20  70  60
GIF  90  72  84  69 /  30  20  70  70
SRQ  85  74  83  70 /  20  20  70  70
BKV  88  69  83  65 /  40  30  70  60
SPG  85  75  81  73 /  20  20  70  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 191508
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1108 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN GULF AND DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES OUR AREA AS THE ENERGY MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. SHOULD STILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD MOVE AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE TAMPA BAY REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRIVE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY
INLAND AND NOT ALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF DURING THE NIGHT AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP SOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND LOWERED THEM SOME NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A
BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT LAKELAND THROUGH ABOUT
20Z...BUT OVERALL THREAT LOOKS LOW. OTHER CONVECTION WELL OUT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE TAF
SITES OF TPA AND PIE THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY VEER BACK TO SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FOR MIDWEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  82  71 /  30  20  70  60
FMY  89  73  87  72 /  10  20  70  60
GIF  90  72  84  69 /  30  20  70  70
SRQ  85  74  83  70 /  20  20  70  70
BKV  88  69  83  65 /  40  30  70  60
SPG  85  75  81  73 /  20  20  70  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 191508
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1108 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN GULF AND DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES OUR AREA AS THE ENERGY MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. SHOULD STILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD MOVE AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE TAMPA BAY REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRIVE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY
INLAND AND NOT ALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF DURING THE NIGHT AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP SOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND LOWERED THEM SOME NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A
BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT LAKELAND THROUGH ABOUT
20Z...BUT OVERALL THREAT LOOKS LOW. OTHER CONVECTION WELL OUT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE TAF
SITES OF TPA AND PIE THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY VEER BACK TO SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FOR MIDWEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  82  71 /  30  20  70  60
FMY  89  73  87  72 /  10  20  70  60
GIF  90  72  84  69 /  30  20  70  70
SRQ  85  74  83  70 /  20  20  70  70
BKV  88  69  83  65 /  40  30  70  60
SPG  85  75  81  73 /  20  20  70  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 191508
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1108 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN GULF AND DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES OUR AREA AS THE ENERGY MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. SHOULD STILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD MOVE AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE TAMPA BAY REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRIVE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY
INLAND AND NOT ALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF DURING THE NIGHT AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP SOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND LOWERED THEM SOME NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A
BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT LAKELAND THROUGH ABOUT
20Z...BUT OVERALL THREAT LOOKS LOW. OTHER CONVECTION WELL OUT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE TAF
SITES OF TPA AND PIE THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY VEER BACK TO SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FOR MIDWEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  82  71 /  30  20  70  60
FMY  89  73  87  72 /  10  20  70  60
GIF  90  72  84  69 /  30  20  70  70
SRQ  85  74  83  70 /  20  20  70  70
BKV  88  69  83  65 /  40  30  70  60
SPG  85  75  81  73 /  20  20  70  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 191508
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1108 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN GULF AND DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES OUR AREA AS THE ENERGY MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. SHOULD STILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD MOVE AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE TAMPA BAY REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRIVE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY
INLAND AND NOT ALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF DURING THE NIGHT AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP SOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND LOWERED THEM SOME NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A
BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT LAKELAND THROUGH ABOUT
20Z...BUT OVERALL THREAT LOOKS LOW. OTHER CONVECTION WELL OUT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE TAF
SITES OF TPA AND PIE THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY VEER BACK TO SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FOR MIDWEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  82  71 /  30  20  70  60
FMY  89  73  87  72 /  10  20  70  60
GIF  90  72  84  69 /  30  20  70  70
SRQ  85  74  83  70 /  20  20  70  70
BKV  88  69  83  65 /  40  30  70  60
SPG  85  75  81  73 /  20  20  70  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 191508
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1108 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN GULF AND DEEP SOUTH AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES OUR AREA AS THE ENERGY MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE
REGION. SHOULD STILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE NATURE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS CONVECTION...IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER...COULD MOVE AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE TAMPA BAY REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE...THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO DRIVE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY
INLAND AND NOT ALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE COAST...BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN DURING THE EVENING...BUT WITH
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
GULF DURING THE NIGHT AND A FEW OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. IN GENERAL FOR THE REST OF TODAY
HAVE TWEAKED POPS UP SOME ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST AND
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND LOWERED THEM SOME NEAR THE COAST SOUTH
OF TAMPA BAY. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE
DISSIPATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECTING MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. A
BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT LAKELAND THROUGH ABOUT
20Z...BUT OVERALL THREAT LOOKS LOW. OTHER CONVECTION WELL OUT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...BUT COULD HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE TAF
SITES OF TPA AND PIE THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST DURING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES
AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING COOL FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY VEER BACK TO SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH FOR MIDWEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FEET
OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  82  71 /  30  20  70  60
FMY  89  73  87  72 /  10  20  70  60
GIF  90  72  84  69 /  30  20  70  70
SRQ  85  74  83  70 /  20  20  70  70
BKV  88  69  83  65 /  40  30  70  60
SPG  85  75  81  73 /  20  20  70  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON




000
FXUS62 KMLB 191504 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1104 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL S/W MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF INTO THE FL PANHANDLE EASTWARD. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN EXITING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER NRN AREAS
AND APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES THIS AFT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AS WELL AS
BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT FROM APPROACHING S/W AND FRONT
LEFT QUADRANT OF U/L JET MAY HELP GENERATE A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW THROUGH THE DAY
LIKELY TO PIN THIS BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE COAST. THEREFORE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE EARLY AFT...THEN TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
IN ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM MID TO LATE AFT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT OCCUR TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE
DAY. VCTS IN TAFS SUFFICIENT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR STORMS WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NO CHANGES NEEDED AS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EASTWARD MOVING STORMS COMING OFF THE MAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  69  83  66 /  60  40  50  20
MCO  90  70  87  67 /  40  30  60  20
MLB  89  71  86  68 /  40  50  60  30
VRB  90  70  84  68 /  40  50  70  30
LEE  88  69  82  66 /  50  30  50  20
SFB  89  71  83  67 /  50  40  60  20
ORL  90  71  83  67 /  40  30  60  20
FPR  90  68  85  67 /  40  50  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMLB 191504 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1104 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL S/W MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF INTO THE FL PANHANDLE EASTWARD. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN EXITING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER NRN AREAS
AND APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES THIS AFT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AS WELL AS
BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT FROM APPROACHING S/W AND FRONT
LEFT QUADRANT OF U/L JET MAY HELP GENERATE A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW THROUGH THE DAY
LIKELY TO PIN THIS BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE COAST. THEREFORE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE EARLY AFT...THEN TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
IN ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM MID TO LATE AFT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT OCCUR TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE
DAY. VCTS IN TAFS SUFFICIENT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR STORMS WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NO CHANGES NEEDED AS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EASTWARD MOVING STORMS COMING OFF THE MAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  69  83  66 /  60  40  50  20
MCO  90  70  87  67 /  40  30  60  20
MLB  89  71  86  68 /  40  50  60  30
VRB  90  70  84  68 /  40  50  70  30
LEE  88  69  82  66 /  50  30  50  20
SFB  89  71  83  67 /  50  40  60  20
ORL  90  71  83  67 /  40  30  60  20
FPR  90  68  85  67 /  40  50  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMLB 191504 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1104 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL S/W MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF INTO THE FL PANHANDLE EASTWARD. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN EXITING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER NRN AREAS
AND APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES THIS AFT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AS WELL AS
BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT FROM APPROACHING S/W AND FRONT
LEFT QUADRANT OF U/L JET MAY HELP GENERATE A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW THROUGH THE DAY
LIKELY TO PIN THIS BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE COAST. THEREFORE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE EARLY AFT...THEN TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
IN ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM MID TO LATE AFT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT OCCUR TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE
DAY. VCTS IN TAFS SUFFICIENT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR STORMS WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NO CHANGES NEEDED AS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EASTWARD MOVING STORMS COMING OFF THE MAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  69  83  66 /  60  40  50  20
MCO  90  70  87  67 /  40  30  60  20
MLB  89  71  86  68 /  40  50  60  30
VRB  90  70  84  68 /  40  50  70  30
LEE  88  69  82  66 /  50  30  50  20
SFB  89  71  83  67 /  50  40  60  20
ORL  90  71  83  67 /  40  30  60  20
FPR  90  68  85  67 /  40  50  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMLB 191504 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1104 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL S/W MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND STRETCHING FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF INTO THE FL PANHANDLE EASTWARD. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME
HEATING IS EXPECTED BETWEEN EXITING MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER NRN AREAS
AND APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES THIS AFT. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AS WELL AS
BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT FROM APPROACHING S/W AND FRONT
LEFT QUADRANT OF U/L JET MAY HELP GENERATE A LITTLE MORE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO FORM ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW THROUGH THE DAY
LIKELY TO PIN THIS BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE COAST. THEREFORE BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL EXIST WITH ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT
OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH THE EARLY AFT...THEN TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS
IN ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA FROM MID TO LATE AFT ESPECIALLY WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THAT OCCUR TOWARD THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE
DAY. VCTS IN TAFS SUFFICIENT FOR NOW...BUT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ADD TEMPO GROUPS FOR STORMS WITH THE 18Z ISSUANCE.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NO CHANGES NEEDED AS FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING EASTWARD MOVING STORMS COMING OFF THE MAIN
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  69  83  66 /  60  40  50  20
MCO  90  70  87  67 /  40  30  60  20
MLB  89  71  86  68 /  40  50  60  30
VRB  90  70  84  68 /  40  50  70  30
LEE  88  69  82  66 /  50  30  50  20
SFB  89  71  83  67 /  50  40  60  20
ORL  90  71  83  67 /  40  30  60  20
FPR  90  68  85  67 /  40  50  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WEITLICH/KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMFL 191456
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1056 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...


SUBTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...BUT THE
OVERALL POP FORECAST AND SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAIN THE SAME FROM
THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. AFTER ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT MESO SCALE
MODELS AND THE 12Z SOUNDING...THE FAVORED AREAS OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE IN THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...A WEAK RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
AND INSUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORT WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE
SOUNDING ANALYSIS REVEALING THAT THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE WINDS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING WITH NOT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR HAIL.


60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN
AIRPORTS. PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM. VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF VCSH IS LOW
FOR THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AT THE MOMENT. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS
CLOSER THIS EVENING, AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY...FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING WHAT
LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS TIMING
MAY ALSO SLIGHTLY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AREA WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE
2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  70 /  20  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  74  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
MIAMI            90  75  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
NAPLES           88  74  87  71 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191456
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1056 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...


SUBTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...BUT THE
OVERALL POP FORECAST AND SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAIN THE SAME FROM
THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. AFTER ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT MESO SCALE
MODELS AND THE 12Z SOUNDING...THE FAVORED AREAS OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE IN THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...A WEAK RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
AND INSUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORT WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE
SOUNDING ANALYSIS REVEALING THAT THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE WINDS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING WITH NOT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR HAIL.


60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN
AIRPORTS. PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM. VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF VCSH IS LOW
FOR THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AT THE MOMENT. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS
CLOSER THIS EVENING, AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY...FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING WHAT
LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS TIMING
MAY ALSO SLIGHTLY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AREA WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE
2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  70 /  20  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  74  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
MIAMI            90  75  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
NAPLES           88  74  87  71 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191456
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1056 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...


SUBTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...BUT THE
OVERALL POP FORECAST AND SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAIN THE SAME FROM
THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. AFTER ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT MESO SCALE
MODELS AND THE 12Z SOUNDING...THE FAVORED AREAS OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE IN THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...A WEAK RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
AND INSUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORT WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE
SOUNDING ANALYSIS REVEALING THAT THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE WINDS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING WITH NOT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR HAIL.


60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN
AIRPORTS. PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM. VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF VCSH IS LOW
FOR THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AT THE MOMENT. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS
CLOSER THIS EVENING, AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY...FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING WHAT
LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS TIMING
MAY ALSO SLIGHTLY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AREA WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE
2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  70 /  20  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  74  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
MIAMI            90  75  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
NAPLES           88  74  87  71 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191456
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1056 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.UPDATE...


SUBTLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...BUT THE
OVERALL POP FORECAST AND SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAIN THE SAME FROM
THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION. AFTER ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT MESO SCALE
MODELS AND THE 12Z SOUNDING...THE FAVORED AREAS OF CONVECTION
SHOULD BE IN THE INTERIOR AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...A WEAK RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
AND INSUFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO
SUPPORT WIDE SPREAD CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH THE
SOUNDING ANALYSIS REVEALING THAT THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE WINDS
TO AROUND 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING WITH NOT MUCH OF A THREAT FOR HAIL.


60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

AVIATION...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN
AIRPORTS. PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM. VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF VCSH IS LOW
FOR THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AT THE MOMENT. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS
CLOSER THIS EVENING, AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY...FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING WHAT
LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS TIMING
MAY ALSO SLIGHTLY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AREA WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE
2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  70 /  20  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  74  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
MIAMI            90  75  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
NAPLES           88  74  87  71 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 191431
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT. DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY. THIS MORNING, A FEW TREES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED DOWN AND ONE TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED WITH DOPPLER
RADAR. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE,
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2", WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AREAS
RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE
FLASH WATCH WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE
VALDOSTA REGION AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. POPS WILL BE NEAR
100% ALL ZONES TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [453 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND A DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, AND LARGE SCALE 800-300MB
QG DIVERGENCE (ALSO IMPLYING SUBSIDENCE) BETWEEN 00 UTC AND 12
UTC. WE MAINTAINED A 15 PERCENT "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A FEW MODELS DO DEPICT SOME LIGHT QPF, BUT THAT MAY BE
GENEROUS. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND THE FORCING APPEARS STRONGER ON THE 00Z SET OF MODEL
RUNS THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOME QPF
DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY AS WEAK-MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED - MORE ISOLATED THAN TODAY. ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ON THE CUSP OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. WHEN COMBINED WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT, A RELATIVELY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
COOLER, BUT STILL AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL (80 DEGREES).


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A DRY DAY OVERALL, WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED ON SATURDAY,
WHERE THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SOME
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (LOW-MID 80S), WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL (60S).


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR TO
IFR RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECP-DHN CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.


.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING, AND THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST RAW MODEL GUIDANCE TO PUT WINDS IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SCEC HEADLINE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST, AND ONE COULD BE NEEDED INTO MONDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THE ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 FEET TODAY AND MONDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WAS
POSTED FOR WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTIES.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH MANY
REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE LATER TODAY AND
AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS
MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   82  69  85  62  81 /  90  20  30  20  10
PANAMA CITY   79  73  79  64  76 / 100  20  20  10  10
DOTHAN        80  68  83  58  77 / 100  20  30  10  10
ALBANY        78  67  83  58  78 / 100  20  30  20  10
VALDOSTA      80  68  86  61  78 / 100  20  30  20  10
CROSS CITY    83  70  83  63  82 /  80  20  40  20  10
APALACHICOLA  79  73  81  66  77 / 100  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     GULF-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND
     FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-LIBERTY-
     NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-
     CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-
     LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SEMINOLE-TERRELL-
     THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COFFEE-DALE-
     GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 191431
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE. A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT. DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE THE MAIN THREAT TODAY. THIS MORNING, A FEW TREES HAVE
BEEN REPORTED DOWN AND ONE TORNADO HAS BEEN CONFIRMED WITH DOPPLER
RADAR. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE,
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2", WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AREAS
RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE
FLASH WATCH WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE
VALDOSTA REGION AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. POPS WILL BE NEAR
100% ALL ZONES TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [453 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND A DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, AND LARGE SCALE 800-300MB
QG DIVERGENCE (ALSO IMPLYING SUBSIDENCE) BETWEEN 00 UTC AND 12
UTC. WE MAINTAINED A 15 PERCENT "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A FEW MODELS DO DEPICT SOME LIGHT QPF, BUT THAT MAY BE
GENEROUS. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND THE FORCING APPEARS STRONGER ON THE 00Z SET OF MODEL
RUNS THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOME QPF
DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY AS WEAK-MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED - MORE ISOLATED THAN TODAY. ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ON THE CUSP OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. WHEN COMBINED WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT, A RELATIVELY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
COOLER, BUT STILL AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL (80 DEGREES).


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A DRY DAY OVERALL, WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED ON SATURDAY,
WHERE THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SOME
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (LOW-MID 80S), WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL (60S).


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR TO
IFR RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECP-DHN CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.


.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING, AND THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST RAW MODEL GUIDANCE TO PUT WINDS IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SCEC HEADLINE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST, AND ONE COULD BE NEEDED INTO MONDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THE ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 FEET TODAY AND MONDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WAS
POSTED FOR WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTIES.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH MANY
REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE LATER TODAY AND
AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS
MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   82  69  85  62  81 /  90  20  30  20  10
PANAMA CITY   79  73  79  64  76 / 100  20  20  10  10
DOTHAN        80  68  83  58  77 / 100  20  30  10  10
ALBANY        78  67  83  58  78 / 100  20  30  20  10
VALDOSTA      80  68  86  61  78 / 100  20  30  20  10
CROSS CITY    83  70  83  63  82 /  80  20  40  20  10
APALACHICOLA  79  73  81  66  77 / 100  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     GULF-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND
     FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-LIBERTY-
     NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-
     CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-
     LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SEMINOLE-TERRELL-
     THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COFFEE-DALE-
     GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE



000
FXUS62 KKEY 191419
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1019 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE KEYS SERVICE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. KBYX DOPPLER
RADAR IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION IN AND NEAR THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE BETWEEN 80 AND 85 DEGREES.

THE EARLY MORNING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS A MORE DEFINED VEERED LOW
LEVEL PROFILE...BUT SPEEDS ARE GENTLE THROUGH ABOUT 18000 FEET.
THERE IS ALSO A SHARP INVERSION BASED VERY CLOSE TO 2000 FEET...AND
BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE IS ALIGNED
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EXTREME OF THE MAINLAND. A FEW SHOWERS SHALLOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ENTIRELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES...TO PEAK BETWEEN 85 AND 90. NO REASON TO
CHANGE THE EARLY MORNING ZONE ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE UPCOMING COASTAL WATERS ISSUANCE WILL HAVE WINDS TURNED MORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ACROSS ALL MARINE GROUPS. BUT THE SPEEDS WILL BE
TRIMMED TO 10 KNOTS OR SO. ENJOY RELATIVELY NICE RECREATIONAL BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 20/12Z. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 020 AND 015 WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS PERIODICALLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1934...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 89 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THIS RECORD REMAINS STANDING 89 YEARS LATER.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 191419
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1019 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE KEYS SERVICE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. KBYX DOPPLER
RADAR IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION IN AND NEAR THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES
ARE BETWEEN 80 AND 85 DEGREES.

THE EARLY MORNING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS A MORE DEFINED VEERED LOW
LEVEL PROFILE...BUT SPEEDS ARE GENTLE THROUGH ABOUT 18000 FEET.
THERE IS ALSO A SHARP INVERSION BASED VERY CLOSE TO 2000 FEET...AND
BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE IS ALIGNED
TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EXTREME OF THE MAINLAND. A FEW SHOWERS SHALLOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ENTIRELY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES...TO PEAK BETWEEN 85 AND 90. NO REASON TO
CHANGE THE EARLY MORNING ZONE ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE UPCOMING COASTAL WATERS ISSUANCE WILL HAVE WINDS TURNED MORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ACROSS ALL MARINE GROUPS. BUT THE SPEEDS WILL BE
TRIMMED TO 10 KNOTS OR SO. ENJOY RELATIVELY NICE RECREATIONAL BOATING
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 20/12Z. FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES BETWEEN 020 AND 015 WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS PERIODICALLY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1934...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST WAS 89 DEGREES SETTING THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. THIS RECORD REMAINS STANDING 89 YEARS LATER.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KJAX 191301
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
901 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
INTERESTING ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION AREA EXITING TO NORTHEAST WITH INITIAL
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREA OF CLEARING...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SOUTHWEST GA/NW AND
WCTRL FL WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION
OVER GULF OF MEX. THUS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE INTO
80-85 RANGE ACROSS FCST AREA...DESTABILIZING AIRMASS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE HRRR...ANTICIPATE INCREASE/UPSCALE IN
CONVECTION W OF FORECAST AREA INTO NRN GULF THROUGH THE MORNING
APPROACHING OUR WRN COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. MODELS BRING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INLAND...PERHAPS TO I-95 CORRIDOR
MID AFTERNOON WHILE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES EASTWARD DURING
AFTERNOON.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO AREAS OF CONCERN...FIRST IS AN ORGANIZED
LINE...OR LINE SEGMENTS...MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES 18Z-21Z...AND EASTERN COUNTIES 21Z-00Z. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS GIVEN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FEEL THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THIS PORTION WILL BE SUWANNEE VALLEY
REGION OF NE FL...AND MUCH OF SE GA. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY SUCH THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS ISSUED WEST OF OUR AREA...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE
EASTWARD EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS WEAKENING OF
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
UNCERTAIN OF THIS SOLUTION GIVEN WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE AND
DIFFLUENCE IN RIGHT-REAR QUAD SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTWARD MOVING WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE...WHICH HRRR SUGGESTS COULD INITIATE DISCRETE
CELLULAR CONVECTION AFTER 18Z OVER EASTERN PORTION OF NE FL...
PARTICULARLY LATER IN AFTERNOON AS IT CONVERGES WITH EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. COMBINATION OF CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40KTS SUGGEST SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
POSSIBLE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
PRIMARY THREAT HERE WOULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADO ESPECIALLY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IF FLOW
IS BACKED NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TODAY WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. SHOWERS/T-STORMS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 191301
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
901 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
INTERESTING ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION AREA EXITING TO NORTHEAST WITH INITIAL
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREA OF CLEARING...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SOUTHWEST GA/NW AND
WCTRL FL WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION
OVER GULF OF MEX. THUS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE INTO
80-85 RANGE ACROSS FCST AREA...DESTABILIZING AIRMASS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE HRRR...ANTICIPATE INCREASE/UPSCALE IN
CONVECTION W OF FORECAST AREA INTO NRN GULF THROUGH THE MORNING
APPROACHING OUR WRN COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. MODELS BRING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INLAND...PERHAPS TO I-95 CORRIDOR
MID AFTERNOON WHILE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES EASTWARD DURING
AFTERNOON.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO AREAS OF CONCERN...FIRST IS AN ORGANIZED
LINE...OR LINE SEGMENTS...MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES 18Z-21Z...AND EASTERN COUNTIES 21Z-00Z. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS GIVEN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FEEL THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THIS PORTION WILL BE SUWANNEE VALLEY
REGION OF NE FL...AND MUCH OF SE GA. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY SUCH THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS ISSUED WEST OF OUR AREA...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE
EASTWARD EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS WEAKENING OF
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
UNCERTAIN OF THIS SOLUTION GIVEN WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE AND
DIFFLUENCE IN RIGHT-REAR QUAD SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTWARD MOVING WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE...WHICH HRRR SUGGESTS COULD INITIATE DISCRETE
CELLULAR CONVECTION AFTER 18Z OVER EASTERN PORTION OF NE FL...
PARTICULARLY LATER IN AFTERNOON AS IT CONVERGES WITH EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. COMBINATION OF CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40KTS SUGGEST SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
POSSIBLE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
PRIMARY THREAT HERE WOULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADO ESPECIALLY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IF FLOW
IS BACKED NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TODAY WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. SHOWERS/T-STORMS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KJAX 191301
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
901 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
INTERESTING ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION AREA EXITING TO NORTHEAST WITH INITIAL
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREA OF CLEARING...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SOUTHWEST GA/NW AND
WCTRL FL WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION
OVER GULF OF MEX. THUS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE INTO
80-85 RANGE ACROSS FCST AREA...DESTABILIZING AIRMASS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE HRRR...ANTICIPATE INCREASE/UPSCALE IN
CONVECTION W OF FORECAST AREA INTO NRN GULF THROUGH THE MORNING
APPROACHING OUR WRN COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. MODELS BRING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INLAND...PERHAPS TO I-95 CORRIDOR
MID AFTERNOON WHILE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES EASTWARD DURING
AFTERNOON.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO AREAS OF CONCERN...FIRST IS AN ORGANIZED
LINE...OR LINE SEGMENTS...MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES 18Z-21Z...AND EASTERN COUNTIES 21Z-00Z. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS GIVEN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FEEL THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THIS PORTION WILL BE SUWANNEE VALLEY
REGION OF NE FL...AND MUCH OF SE GA. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY SUCH THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS ISSUED WEST OF OUR AREA...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE
EASTWARD EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS WEAKENING OF
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
UNCERTAIN OF THIS SOLUTION GIVEN WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE AND
DIFFLUENCE IN RIGHT-REAR QUAD SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTWARD MOVING WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE...WHICH HRRR SUGGESTS COULD INITIATE DISCRETE
CELLULAR CONVECTION AFTER 18Z OVER EASTERN PORTION OF NE FL...
PARTICULARLY LATER IN AFTERNOON AS IT CONVERGES WITH EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. COMBINATION OF CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40KTS SUGGEST SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
POSSIBLE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
PRIMARY THREAT HERE WOULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADO ESPECIALLY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IF FLOW
IS BACKED NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TODAY WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. SHOWERS/T-STORMS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KJAX 191301
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
901 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
INTERESTING ENVIRONMENTAL SETUP FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR AREA.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION AREA EXITING TO NORTHEAST WITH INITIAL
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING
AREA OF CLEARING...JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS...SOUTHWEST GA/NW AND
WCTRL FL WHICH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION
OVER GULF OF MEX. THUS SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE INTO
80-85 RANGE ACROSS FCST AREA...DESTABILIZING AIRMASS.

GENERALLY FOLLOWING THE HRRR...ANTICIPATE INCREASE/UPSCALE IN
CONVECTION W OF FORECAST AREA INTO NRN GULF THROUGH THE MORNING
APPROACHING OUR WRN COUNTIES TOWARD 18Z...AHEAD OF A WELL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR. MODELS BRING SHORT WAVE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO MAKE SOME PROGRESS INLAND...PERHAPS TO I-95 CORRIDOR
MID AFTERNOON WHILE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES EASTWARD DURING
AFTERNOON.

LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS TWO AREAS OF CONCERN...FIRST IS AN ORGANIZED
LINE...OR LINE SEGMENTS...MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES 18Z-21Z...AND EASTERN COUNTIES 21Z-00Z. PRIMARY THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY SEVERE WINDS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS GIVEN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. FEEL THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THIS PORTION WILL BE SUWANNEE VALLEY
REGION OF NE FL...AND MUCH OF SE GA. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY SUCH THAT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A
TORNADO WATCH IS ISSUED WEST OF OUR AREA...AND WOULD ANTICIPATE
EASTWARD EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SUGGESTS WEAKENING OF
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT
UNCERTAIN OF THIS SOLUTION GIVEN WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE AND
DIFFLUENCE IN RIGHT-REAR QUAD SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH EASTWARD MOVING WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE...WHICH HRRR SUGGESTS COULD INITIATE DISCRETE
CELLULAR CONVECTION AFTER 18Z OVER EASTERN PORTION OF NE FL...
PARTICULARLY LATER IN AFTERNOON AS IT CONVERGES WITH EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. COMBINATION OF CAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES NEAR 40KTS SUGGEST SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES
POSSIBLE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
PRIMARY THREAT HERE WOULD BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL...BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED TORNADO ESPECIALLY FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IF FLOW
IS BACKED NEAR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED IN NEXT CWF ISSUANCE.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TODAY WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. SHOWERS/T-STORMS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191148
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN
AIRPORTS. PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM. VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF VCSH IS LOW
FOR THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AT THE MOMENT. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS
CLOSER THIS EVENING, AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY...FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING WHAT
LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS TIMING
MAY ALSO SLIGHTLY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AREA WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE
2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  70 /  20  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  74  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
MIAMI            90  75  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
NAPLES           88  74  87  71 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 191148
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN
AIRPORTS. PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM. VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF VCSH IS LOW
FOR THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AT THE MOMENT. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS
CLOSER THIS EVENING, AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY...FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING WHAT
LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS TIMING
MAY ALSO SLIGHTLY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AREA WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE
2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  70 /  20  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  74  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
MIAMI            90  75  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
NAPLES           88  74  87  71 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191148
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN
AIRPORTS. PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM. VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF VCSH IS LOW
FOR THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AT THE MOMENT. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS
CLOSER THIS EVENING, AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY...FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING WHAT
LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS TIMING
MAY ALSO SLIGHTLY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AREA WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE
2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  70 /  20  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  74  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
MIAMI            90  75  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
NAPLES           88  74  87  71 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 191148
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE NORTHERN
AIRPORTS. PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM. VCSH HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FOR ALL AIRPORTS. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF VCSH IS LOW
FOR THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AT THE MOMENT. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS
CLOSER THIS EVENING, AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY...FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING WHAT
LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS TIMING
MAY ALSO SLIGHTLY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AREA WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

MARINE... WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE
2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  70 /  20  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  74  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
MIAMI            90  75  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
NAPLES           88  74  87  71 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190932 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW
ISOLD RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW
MOISTURE INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD
TO MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190932 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW
ISOLD RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW
MOISTURE INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD
TO MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS



000
FXUS62 KJAX 190932 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE AND LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW
ISOLD RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW
MOISTURE INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD
TO MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL
DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190912 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190912 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190912 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190912 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190912 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190912 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190912 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190912 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190912 CCA
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
512 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)...A FEW
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF...OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KKEY 190904
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
504 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PREVAILS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN DESPITE THE ENCROACHMENT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE JET STREAM RELEASES TO THE
NORTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DEFLECTED BY THE DEEP RIDGE
COMPLEX. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AND MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
SURVIVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

.CURRENTLY...THE AREA C-MANS DETECT MODERATE...WARM..AND HUMID
SOUTHEAST BREEZES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE BARELY
DIPPED PAST 80 DEGREES. SKIES ARE LITTERED BY THE DEBRIS OF HIGHER
CLOUDS...YET ARE MOSTLY VOID OF LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS. THE RADAR IS ECHO
FREE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SLIDE NORTH AND
EAST...MARKING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND DEMARCATING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS THESE FEATURES
PROGRESS...CYCLONIC AND CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRUSH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WELL REMOVED FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THUS...SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE PRODUCTS OF MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALONG OUR
ISLAND CHAIN AND ACROSS CUBA WILL CONTEND WILL INHIBITION AND DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WE ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CHALLENGES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR A
REVERSE CLOUD LINE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S EACH AFTERNOON...IN FACT...KMTH WILL LIKELY REACH
90 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ZONAL MID- UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. AS A MATTER OF DEFAULT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEND WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OVER CUBA. A SECOND ROUND OF REVERSE CLOUD LINE
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY STEERING FLOWS
FAVORABLE FOR MAINLAND CONVECTION TO COLLAPSE TOWARDS THE UPPER KEYS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WHICH SLOWLY TRAILS OFF RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WINDS DECREASE...CHOOSING WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMES
CHALLENGING. SOME PERIODS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED AS VARIABLE DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. FROM SYNOPSIS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL DISSIPATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH MORE THAN USUAL VARIABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  78  85  77 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  89  79  90  78 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 190904
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
504 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PREVAILS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN DESPITE THE ENCROACHMENT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE JET STREAM RELEASES TO THE
NORTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DEFLECTED BY THE DEEP RIDGE
COMPLEX. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AND MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
SURVIVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

.CURRENTLY...THE AREA C-MANS DETECT MODERATE...WARM..AND HUMID
SOUTHEAST BREEZES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE BARELY
DIPPED PAST 80 DEGREES. SKIES ARE LITTERED BY THE DEBRIS OF HIGHER
CLOUDS...YET ARE MOSTLY VOID OF LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS. THE RADAR IS ECHO
FREE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SLIDE NORTH AND
EAST...MARKING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND DEMARCATING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS THESE FEATURES
PROGRESS...CYCLONIC AND CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRUSH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WELL REMOVED FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THUS...SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE PRODUCTS OF MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALONG OUR
ISLAND CHAIN AND ACROSS CUBA WILL CONTEND WILL INHIBITION AND DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WE ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CHALLENGES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR A
REVERSE CLOUD LINE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S EACH AFTERNOON...IN FACT...KMTH WILL LIKELY REACH
90 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ZONAL MID- UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. AS A MATTER OF DEFAULT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEND WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OVER CUBA. A SECOND ROUND OF REVERSE CLOUD LINE
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY STEERING FLOWS
FAVORABLE FOR MAINLAND CONVECTION TO COLLAPSE TOWARDS THE UPPER KEYS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WHICH SLOWLY TRAILS OFF RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WINDS DECREASE...CHOOSING WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMES
CHALLENGING. SOME PERIODS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED AS VARIABLE DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. FROM SYNOPSIS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL DISSIPATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH MORE THAN USUAL VARIABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  78  85  77 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  89  79  90  78 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 190904
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
504 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PREVAILS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN DESPITE THE ENCROACHMENT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE JET STREAM RELEASES TO THE
NORTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DEFLECTED BY THE DEEP RIDGE
COMPLEX. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AND MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
SURVIVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

.CURRENTLY...THE AREA C-MANS DETECT MODERATE...WARM..AND HUMID
SOUTHEAST BREEZES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE BARELY
DIPPED PAST 80 DEGREES. SKIES ARE LITTERED BY THE DEBRIS OF HIGHER
CLOUDS...YET ARE MOSTLY VOID OF LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS. THE RADAR IS ECHO
FREE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SLIDE NORTH AND
EAST...MARKING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND DEMARCATING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS THESE FEATURES
PROGRESS...CYCLONIC AND CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRUSH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WELL REMOVED FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THUS...SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE PRODUCTS OF MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALONG OUR
ISLAND CHAIN AND ACROSS CUBA WILL CONTEND WILL INHIBITION AND DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WE ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CHALLENGES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR A
REVERSE CLOUD LINE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S EACH AFTERNOON...IN FACT...KMTH WILL LIKELY REACH
90 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ZONAL MID- UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. AS A MATTER OF DEFAULT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEND WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OVER CUBA. A SECOND ROUND OF REVERSE CLOUD LINE
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY STEERING FLOWS
FAVORABLE FOR MAINLAND CONVECTION TO COLLAPSE TOWARDS THE UPPER KEYS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WHICH SLOWLY TRAILS OFF RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WINDS DECREASE...CHOOSING WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMES
CHALLENGING. SOME PERIODS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED AS VARIABLE DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. FROM SYNOPSIS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL DISSIPATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH MORE THAN USUAL VARIABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  78  85  77 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  89  79  90  78 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 190904
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
504 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION PREVAILS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN DESPITE THE ENCROACHMENT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE JET STREAM RELEASES TO THE
NORTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...DEFLECTED BY THE DEEP RIDGE
COMPLEX. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD AND MULTI-CENTERED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE
SURVIVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

.CURRENTLY...THE AREA C-MANS DETECT MODERATE...WARM..AND HUMID
SOUTHEAST BREEZES. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN HAVE BARELY
DIPPED PAST 80 DEGREES. SKIES ARE LITTERED BY THE DEBRIS OF HIGHER
CLOUDS...YET ARE MOSTLY VOID OF LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS. THE RADAR IS ECHO
FREE.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL SLIDE NORTH AND
EAST...MARKING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND DEMARCATING THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW. AS THESE FEATURES
PROGRESS...CYCLONIC AND CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRUSH THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WELL REMOVED FROM THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THUS...SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE PRODUCTS OF MESOSCALE PROCESSES ALONG OUR
ISLAND CHAIN AND ACROSS CUBA WILL CONTEND WILL INHIBITION AND DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. WE ADVERTISE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CHALLENGES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR A
REVERSE CLOUD LINE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S EACH AFTERNOON...IN FACT...KMTH WILL LIKELY REACH
90 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...ZONAL MID- UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL STRETCH FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO EAST OF THE
BAHAMAS. AS A MATTER OF DEFAULT...A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEND WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER OVER CUBA. A SECOND ROUND OF REVERSE CLOUD LINE
SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY STEERING FLOWS
FAVORABLE FOR MAINLAND CONVECTION TO COLLAPSE TOWARDS THE UPPER KEYS
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM
FORECAST WHICH SLOWLY TRAILS OFF RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHT TO GENTLE THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WINDS DECREASE...CHOOSING WIND DIRECTIONS BECOMES
CHALLENGING. SOME PERIODS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISED AS VARIABLE DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. FROM SYNOPSIS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL DISSIPATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE 5 TO 10 KNOTS...GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH MORE THAN USUAL VARIABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85  78  85  77 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  89  79  90  78 / 10 20 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 190853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING OVER OUR CWA. LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF NEW
ORLEANS WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION
HIGHLIGHTED FOR SLIGHT RISK. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH HAIL AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1- 2", WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH
FLOODING. THE FLASH WATCH WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR ALL BUT THE VALDOSTA REGION AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND.
POPS WILL BE NEAR 100% ALL ZONES TODAY.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND A DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, AND LARGE SCALE 800-300MB
QG DIVERGENCE (ALSO IMPLYING SUBSIDENCE) BETWEEN 00 UTC AND 12
UTC. WE MAINTAINED A 15 PERCENT "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A FEW MODELS DO DEPICT SOME LIGHT QPF, BUT THAT MAY BE
GENEROUS. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND THE FORCING APPEARS STRONGER ON THE 00Z SET OF MODEL
RUNS THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOME QPF
DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY AS WEAK-MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED - MORE ISOLATED THAN TODAY. ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ON THE CUSP OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. WHEN COMBINED WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT, A RELATIVELY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
COOLER, BUT STILL AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL (80 DEGREES).


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A DRY DAY OVERALL, WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED ON SATURDAY,
WHERE THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SOME
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (LOW-MID 80S), WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL (60S).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR TO
IFR RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECP-DHN CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING, AND THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST RAW MODEL GUIDANCE TO PUT WINDS IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SCEC HEADLINE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST, AND ONE COULD BE NEEDED INTO MONDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THE ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 FEET TODAY AND MONDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WAS
POSTED FOR WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH MANY
REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE LATER TODAY AND
AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS
MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   82  69  85  62  81 / 100  20  30  20  10
PANAMA CITY   79  73  79  64  76 / 100  20  20  10  10
DOTHAN        80  68  83  58  77 / 100  20  30  10  10
ALBANY        77  67  83  58  78 / 100  20  30  20  10
VALDOSTA      80  68  86  61  78 / 100  20  30  20  10
CROSS CITY    83  70  83  63  82 / 100  20  40  20  10
APALACHICOLA  80  73  81  66  77 / 100  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL
     WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL
     WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND
     GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-LIBERTY-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH
     WALTON-WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-
     CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-
     LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SEMINOLE-TERRELL-
     THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-
     HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE



000
FXUS62 KJAX 190853
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT LIFTS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)... A FEW
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A  DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING  INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF... OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KTBW 190853
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER
WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RIDGING OVER CUBA ARCED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE - A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT
ALONG THE GULF COAST STRETCHED THROUGH GA AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...
AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST WITH AN AXIS BETWEEN THE KEYS
AND CUBA THEN WESTWARD INTO THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EASTWARD AND OPENS AS THE CANADIAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH...MERGING INTO A BROAD SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE MID CONUS SURFACE TROUGH CONSOLIDATES IN A LOW THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES...FORMING A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES NW AND NORTH FL BY MON
AFTERNOON. THE GULF COAST BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF EXITS EAST.

ONGOING PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE
WINDS AT THE COAST ARE RATHER MODEST THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS...A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL
BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL STREAM DEEP MOISTURE AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A
STORM OR TWO TO BECOME ROBUST AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE NORTH AND INLAND. SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY WIND DOWN
IN THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS MON THE DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS SOUTHWARD WITH
SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ON THE GULF THAT SPREADS INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)... THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES STALLING A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO TUESDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS RETURN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/06Z-20/06Z. MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH PATCHY BR
IS RESULTING IN SOME MVFR AT TERMINALS. BR SHOULD LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE. SCT-BKN CLOUDS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WITH SOME VCNTY
SHRA OR TSRA UNTIL EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH
AND SW...GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AS A FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE
WATERS AND WEAKENS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE GULF
COAST. WITH THE PREVAILING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE
THAN 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW HUMID CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ROBUST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSIONS TODAY. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-FORM LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  82  71 /  40  20  70  60
FMY  89  73  87  72 /  10  20  70  60
GIF  90  72  84  69 /  50  20  70  70
SRQ  85  74  83  70 /  30  20  70  70
BKV  88  69  83  65 /  50  20  70  60
SPG  85  75  82  73 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...03/PAXTON



000
FXUS62 KTBW 190853
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER
WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RIDGING OVER CUBA ARCED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE - A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT
ALONG THE GULF COAST STRETCHED THROUGH GA AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...
AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST WITH AN AXIS BETWEEN THE KEYS
AND CUBA THEN WESTWARD INTO THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EASTWARD AND OPENS AS THE CANADIAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH...MERGING INTO A BROAD SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE MID CONUS SURFACE TROUGH CONSOLIDATES IN A LOW THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES...FORMING A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES NW AND NORTH FL BY MON
AFTERNOON. THE GULF COAST BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF EXITS EAST.

ONGOING PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE
WINDS AT THE COAST ARE RATHER MODEST THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS...A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL
BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL STREAM DEEP MOISTURE AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A
STORM OR TWO TO BECOME ROBUST AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE NORTH AND INLAND. SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY WIND DOWN
IN THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS MON THE DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS SOUTHWARD WITH
SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ON THE GULF THAT SPREADS INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)... THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES STALLING A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO TUESDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS RETURN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/06Z-20/06Z. MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH PATCHY BR
IS RESULTING IN SOME MVFR AT TERMINALS. BR SHOULD LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE. SCT-BKN CLOUDS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WITH SOME VCNTY
SHRA OR TSRA UNTIL EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH
AND SW...GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AS A FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE
WATERS AND WEAKENS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE GULF
COAST. WITH THE PREVAILING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE
THAN 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW HUMID CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ROBUST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSIONS TODAY. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-FORM LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  82  71 /  40  20  70  60
FMY  89  73  87  72 /  10  20  70  60
GIF  90  72  84  69 /  50  20  70  70
SRQ  85  74  83  70 /  30  20  70  70
BKV  88  69  83  65 /  50  20  70  60
SPG  85  75  82  73 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...03/PAXTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 190853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING OVER OUR CWA. LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF NEW
ORLEANS WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION
HIGHLIGHTED FOR SLIGHT RISK. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH HAIL AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1- 2", WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH
FLOODING. THE FLASH WATCH WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR ALL BUT THE VALDOSTA REGION AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND.
POPS WILL BE NEAR 100% ALL ZONES TODAY.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND A DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, AND LARGE SCALE 800-300MB
QG DIVERGENCE (ALSO IMPLYING SUBSIDENCE) BETWEEN 00 UTC AND 12
UTC. WE MAINTAINED A 15 PERCENT "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A FEW MODELS DO DEPICT SOME LIGHT QPF, BUT THAT MAY BE
GENEROUS. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND THE FORCING APPEARS STRONGER ON THE 00Z SET OF MODEL
RUNS THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOME QPF
DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY AS WEAK-MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED - MORE ISOLATED THAN TODAY. ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ON THE CUSP OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. WHEN COMBINED WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT, A RELATIVELY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
COOLER, BUT STILL AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL (80 DEGREES).


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A DRY DAY OVERALL, WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED ON SATURDAY,
WHERE THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SOME
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (LOW-MID 80S), WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL (60S).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR TO
IFR RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECP-DHN CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING, AND THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST RAW MODEL GUIDANCE TO PUT WINDS IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SCEC HEADLINE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST, AND ONE COULD BE NEEDED INTO MONDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THE ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 FEET TODAY AND MONDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WAS
POSTED FOR WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH MANY
REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE LATER TODAY AND
AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS
MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   82  69  85  62  81 / 100  20  30  20  10
PANAMA CITY   79  73  79  64  76 / 100  20  20  10  10
DOTHAN        80  68  83  58  77 / 100  20  30  10  10
ALBANY        77  67  83  58  78 / 100  20  30  20  10
VALDOSTA      80  68  86  61  78 / 100  20  30  20  10
CROSS CITY    83  70  83  63  82 / 100  20  40  20  10
APALACHICOLA  80  73  81  66  77 / 100  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL
     WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL
     WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND
     GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-LIBERTY-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH
     WALTON-WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-
     CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-
     LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SEMINOLE-TERRELL-
     THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-
     HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190853
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT LIFTS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)... A FEW
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A  DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING  INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF... OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS



000
FXUS62 KTBW 190853
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER
WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RIDGING OVER CUBA ARCED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE - A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT
ALONG THE GULF COAST STRETCHED THROUGH GA AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...
AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST WITH AN AXIS BETWEEN THE KEYS
AND CUBA THEN WESTWARD INTO THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EASTWARD AND OPENS AS THE CANADIAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH...MERGING INTO A BROAD SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE MID CONUS SURFACE TROUGH CONSOLIDATES IN A LOW THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES...FORMING A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES NW AND NORTH FL BY MON
AFTERNOON. THE GULF COAST BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF EXITS EAST.

ONGOING PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE
WINDS AT THE COAST ARE RATHER MODEST THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS...A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL
BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL STREAM DEEP MOISTURE AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A
STORM OR TWO TO BECOME ROBUST AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE NORTH AND INLAND. SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY WIND DOWN
IN THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS MON THE DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS SOUTHWARD WITH
SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ON THE GULF THAT SPREADS INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)... THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES STALLING A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO TUESDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS RETURN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/06Z-20/06Z. MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH PATCHY BR
IS RESULTING IN SOME MVFR AT TERMINALS. BR SHOULD LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE. SCT-BKN CLOUDS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WITH SOME VCNTY
SHRA OR TSRA UNTIL EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH
AND SW...GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AS A FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE
WATERS AND WEAKENS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE GULF
COAST. WITH THE PREVAILING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE
THAN 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW HUMID CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ROBUST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSIONS TODAY. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-FORM LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  82  71 /  40  20  70  60
FMY  89  73  87  72 /  10  20  70  60
GIF  90  72  84  69 /  50  20  70  70
SRQ  85  74  83  70 /  30  20  70  70
BKV  88  69  83  65 /  50  20  70  60
SPG  85  75  82  73 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...03/PAXTON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 190853
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT - A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN-MANITOBA BORDER
WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RIDGING OVER CUBA ARCED
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES.
SURFACE - A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRUNG OUT
ALONG THE GULF COAST STRETCHED THROUGH GA AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC...
AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGED WEST WITH AN AXIS BETWEEN THE KEYS
AND CUBA THEN WESTWARD INTO THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EASTWARD AND OPENS AS THE CANADIAN SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DROPS SOUTH...MERGING INTO A BROAD SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THE NET RESULT WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THE AREA.
MEANWHILE THE MID CONUS SURFACE TROUGH CONSOLIDATES IN A LOW THAT
MOVES THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN CROSSES THE GREAT
LAKES...FORMING A COLD FRONT THAT REACHES NW AND NORTH FL BY MON
AFTERNOON. THE GULF COAST BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC INTO THE GULF EXITS EAST.

ONGOING PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE. WHILE
WINDS AT THE COAST ARE RATHER MODEST THEY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
INCREASE THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS...A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT WILL
BE IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL STREAM DEEP MOISTURE AND PROVIDE
ENOUGH ENERGY FOR SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS...ALONG WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR A
STORM OR TWO TO BECOME ROBUST AND PRODUCE STRONG WINDS. CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING THEN SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST
COVERAGE NORTH AND INLAND. SHOWERS AND STORMS GENERALLY WIND DOWN
IN THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS MON THE DEEP MOISTURE SPREADS SOUTHWARD WITH
SOME EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ON THE GULF THAT SPREADS INLAND
DURING THE DAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)... THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE ZONAL FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES STALLING A FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO TUESDAY AND BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT SINKS SOUTH WEDNESDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS RETURN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/06Z-20/06Z. MAINLY VFR UNDER SCT-BKN CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH PATCHY BR
IS RESULTING IN SOME MVFR AT TERMINALS. BR SHOULD LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE. SCT-BKN CLOUDS CONTINUE DURING THE DAY WITH SOME VCNTY
SHRA OR TSRA UNTIL EVENING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME SOUTH
AND SW...GUSTY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AS A FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OVER THE
WATERS AND WEAKENS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ALONG THE GULF
COAST. WITH THE PREVAILING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE
THAN 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL PRECLUDE ANY LOW HUMID CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...ROBUST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
DISPERSIONS TODAY. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE BUT IS EXPECTED TO RE-FORM LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  87  74  82  71 /  40  20  70  60
FMY  89  73  87  72 /  10  20  70  60
GIF  90  72  84  69 /  50  20  70  70
SRQ  85  74  83  70 /  30  20  70  70
BKV  88  69  83  65 /  50  20  70  60
SPG  85  75  82  73 /  30  30  70  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING
     THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...03/PAXTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 190853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING OVER OUR CWA. LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF NEW
ORLEANS WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION
HIGHLIGHTED FOR SLIGHT RISK. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH HAIL AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1- 2", WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH
FLOODING. THE FLASH WATCH WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR ALL BUT THE VALDOSTA REGION AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND.
POPS WILL BE NEAR 100% ALL ZONES TODAY.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND A DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, AND LARGE SCALE 800-300MB
QG DIVERGENCE (ALSO IMPLYING SUBSIDENCE) BETWEEN 00 UTC AND 12
UTC. WE MAINTAINED A 15 PERCENT "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A FEW MODELS DO DEPICT SOME LIGHT QPF, BUT THAT MAY BE
GENEROUS. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND THE FORCING APPEARS STRONGER ON THE 00Z SET OF MODEL
RUNS THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOME QPF
DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY AS WEAK-MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED - MORE ISOLATED THAN TODAY. ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ON THE CUSP OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. WHEN COMBINED WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT, A RELATIVELY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
COOLER, BUT STILL AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL (80 DEGREES).


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A DRY DAY OVERALL, WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED ON SATURDAY,
WHERE THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SOME
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (LOW-MID 80S), WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL (60S).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR TO
IFR RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECP-DHN CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING, AND THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST RAW MODEL GUIDANCE TO PUT WINDS IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SCEC HEADLINE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST, AND ONE COULD BE NEEDED INTO MONDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THE ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 FEET TODAY AND MONDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WAS
POSTED FOR WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH MANY
REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE LATER TODAY AND
AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS
MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   82  69  85  62  81 / 100  20  30  20  10
PANAMA CITY   79  73  79  64  76 / 100  20  20  10  10
DOTHAN        80  68  83  58  77 / 100  20  30  10  10
ALBANY        77  67  83  58  78 / 100  20  30  20  10
VALDOSTA      80  68  86  61  78 / 100  20  30  20  10
CROSS CITY    83  70  83  63  82 / 100  20  40  20  10
APALACHICOLA  80  73  81  66  77 / 100  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL
     WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL
     WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND
     GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-LIBERTY-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH
     WALTON-WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-
     CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-
     LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SEMINOLE-TERRELL-
     THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-
     HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE



000
FXUS62 KJAX 190853
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT LIFTS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)... A FEW
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A  DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING  INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF... OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190853
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...WARM FRONT NEAR THE ALTAMAHA WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY PUTTING
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. PATCHES OF FOG WILL
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BUT EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT.

A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO
RACE NE. MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL FIRST MOVE IN ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INLAND SE GA
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AS THE UPPER
SUPPORT LIFTS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH...WHEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

SPC HAS ALL OF SE GA AND SUWANNEE VALLEY AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WX...WITH A SMALL MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE MODEST
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY (FORECAST CAPES 2000J AND 0-3KM HELICITIES OF
AROUND 150) ALONG WITH ADDED LIFT (FROM UPPER DIFFLUENCE)... A FEW
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES TONIGHT AS A  DRY
SLOT MOVES IN IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. MODELS COMING  INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A DISTURBANCE COMING IN THE FROM THE GULF... OUT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL TRACK MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NAM MORE BULLISH AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH PCP. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE POPS
EVERYWHERE WITH SLIGHLY HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. GIVEN THAT
TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE MUCH COLDER (-12 TO -15C) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MORE PRONOUNCED...SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HAIL IN ADDITION TO STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS MOST OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.

MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THEN STALLS OVER CENTRAL FL TUE AND WED. DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLD PRECIP
EXPECTED MON NIGHT THEN LESS THAN 20 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES OF RAIN
TUE AND WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW TUE AND THEN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE OF THE SE U.S. COAST WED. TEMPS WILL TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
TUE THROUGH WED WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S POSSIBLE LATE TUE
NIGHT...AS SFC HIGH WILL BE ALLOW FOR A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

THU THROUGH SAT...A RETURN FLOW REGIME BEGINS THU AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES OFFSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE S AND SW. FOR NOW ISOLD
RAIN CHANCES ADVERTISED OVER NE FL THU AS GFS AND ECM SHOW MOISTURE
INCREASING. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUED FRI AND THEN A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS FCST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
UNCERTAINTY GROWS STEADILY WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT REGARDING RAIN
CHANCES DUE TO GFS AND ECM DIFFERENT HANDLING OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING EWD IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW AND ALSO IN REGARD TO
MOISTURE PROFILES. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOG WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE STILL BE PATCHES OF IT WITH
PREVAILING MVFR VSBY TIL AROUND 13Z. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
SHOWERS AND TSMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE SOME IMPACTS
AT ALL TERMINALS SO HAVE PUT TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR MVFR WITH TS AND
GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 19Z-00Z. DRY SLOT WILL PUSH MOST CONVECTION
OFFSHORE BY EARLY EVE BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGER SHOWERS EARLY
AND HAVE VCSH AT 01Z.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THRU MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OFFSHORE LEGS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSMS THRU MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS IN BEHIND FRONT TUE WITH WIND/SEAS DECREASING.

RIP CURRENTS:  MODERATE RISK TODAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL. A LOW
RISK EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME OFFSHORE AND INCREASE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  82  65  82  58 /  80  30  30  20
SSI  79  68  81  64 /  80  30  30  20
JAX  84  67  84  62 /  80  30  30  20
SGJ  82  68  82  65 /  70  30  40  20
GNV  85  67  83  64 /  70  20  40  20
OCF  86  67  83  65 /  60  20  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ARS



000
FXUS62 KTAE 190853
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING OVER OUR CWA. LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF NEW
ORLEANS WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION
HIGHLIGHTED FOR SLIGHT RISK. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH HAIL AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1- 2", WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH
FLOODING. THE FLASH WATCH WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR ALL BUT THE VALDOSTA REGION AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND.
POPS WILL BE NEAR 100% ALL ZONES TODAY.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND A DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, AND LARGE SCALE 800-300MB
QG DIVERGENCE (ALSO IMPLYING SUBSIDENCE) BETWEEN 00 UTC AND 12
UTC. WE MAINTAINED A 15 PERCENT "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS A FEW MODELS DO DEPICT SOME LIGHT QPF, BUT THAT MAY BE
GENEROUS. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES AND THE FORCING APPEARS STRONGER ON THE 00Z SET OF MODEL
RUNS THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOME QPF
DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY AS WEAK-MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET. IT
DOES APPEAR THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED - MORE ISOLATED THAN TODAY. ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE ON THE CUSP OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WHICH WOULD LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. WHEN COMBINED WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR, A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
LARGE HAIL WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.

WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
COLD FRONT, A RELATIVELY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
COOLER, BUT STILL AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL (80 DEGREES).


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A DRY DAY OVERALL, WILL
QUICKLY ERODE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED ON SATURDAY,
WHERE THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SOME
HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK TO
BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (LOW-MID 80S), WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL (60S).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR TO
IFR RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK. A SQUALL LINE IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECP-DHN CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE AND
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING, AND THERE IS DECENT
AGREEMENT AMONGST RAW MODEL GUIDANCE TO PUT WINDS IN THE 15-20
KNOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SCEC HEADLINE WAS
ADDED TO THE FORECAST, AND ONE COULD BE NEEDED INTO MONDAY. AS A
RESULT OF THE ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD
BE AROUND 3 FEET TODAY AND MONDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WAS
POSTED FOR WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH MANY
REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE LATER TODAY AND
AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS
MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   82  69  85  62  81 / 100  20  30  20  10
PANAMA CITY   79  73  79  64  76 / 100  20  20  10  10
DOTHAN        80  68  83  58  77 / 100  20  30  10  10
ALBANY        77  67  83  58  78 / 100  20  30  20  10
VALDOSTA      80  68  86  61  78 / 100  20  30  20  10
CROSS CITY    83  70  83  63  82 / 100  20  40  20  10
APALACHICOLA  80  73  81  66  77 / 100  20  20  20  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL
     WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL
     WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND
     GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-LIBERTY-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH
     WALTON-WASHINGTON.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-
     CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-
     LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SEMINOLE-TERRELL-
     THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-
     HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE




000
FXUS62 KMLB 190804
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
403 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES DAILY THIS WEEK...

TODAY-TONIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WEST
EAST ORIENTED WHILE SLOWING TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL
TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WL FEED
WARM MOIST GULF/CARIBBEAN AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WARM MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA
AND THE FRONT LEFT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET CROSSING
OVERHEAD SHOULD PRODUCE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 50 POP FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
TEND TO PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AND "PIN" THE EAST COAST BREEZE TO THE COAST. IF THE
WESTERLY GRADIENT BREEZE IS STRONG ENOUGH THE EAST COAST MAY NOT
SEE MUCH...IF ANY SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD MAX
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

THE INTERIOR SHOULD SEE STORMS/SHOWERS END FIRST THEN THE EAST COAST
WHERE STORMS SHOULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PAST SUNSET. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

MON-TUE...AXIS OF STRONG JET TRANSITING THE GULF CST AND SE STATES
MON AND INTO TUE WL PROVIDE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO FORCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME WL LIKELY BE STRONG ON
MON WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGHER
MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY OF ASCENT REGION WL LEAD TO HIGHER CHCS ON
MON WITH TAPERING BACK COVERAGE AREA WIDE TUE...

REST OF WEEK...DEPARTURE OF STRONG UPR WIND MAXIMA WL BRING
EVOLUTION TO ZONAL PATTERN WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH DOWNSTREAM ACTING
TO STABILIZE AIRMASS...WITH SOME DRYING AS WELL OVER THE NORTH AT
MIDWEEK. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE
WL FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WED-THU WITH AT LEAST
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FCST LACKING ANY NOTABLE
PATTERN CHG AND OR DRYING OF THE AMBIENT AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SPOTS OF MVFR MIST AND SOME SHALLOW PATCHES OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MIFG 07Z-12Z. PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 18Z-20Z AS WEST
COAST COAST CLOUDS START TO THICKEN AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPO MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS 20Z-22Z INTERIOR AND 22Z-02Z AT THE
COAST AS LINGERING SHWRS/STORMS LINGER ON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
SUNSET. VFR AFT 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EASTWARD MOVING STORMS COMING OFF THE MAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN.

MON-THU...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MON AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA AS IT
STALLS TUE. SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INCREASE UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE
OF VOLUSIA COUNTY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLOW
THEN WEAKENS WITH N/NE WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BECOMING ONSHORE
INTO MIDWEEK AS FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WL REMAIN
4 FEET OR LESS.

BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING
STORMS IN THE AFT AND EVE MAINLY MON AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  69  83  66 /  60  40  50  20
MCO  90  70  87  67 /  50  30  60  20
MLB  88  71  86  68 /  30  50  60  30
VRB  89  70  84  68 /  30  50  70  30
LEE  88  69  82  66 /  60  30  50  20
SFB  89  71  83  67 /  50  40  60  20
ORL  89  71  83  67 /  50  30  60  20
FPR  89  68  85  67 /  30  50  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST



000
FXUS62 KMLB 190804
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
403 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES DAILY THIS WEEK...

TODAY-TONIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WEST
EAST ORIENTED WHILE SLOWING TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL
TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WL FEED
WARM MOIST GULF/CARIBBEAN AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WARM MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA
AND THE FRONT LEFT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET CROSSING
OVERHEAD SHOULD PRODUCE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 50 POP FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
TEND TO PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AND "PIN" THE EAST COAST BREEZE TO THE COAST. IF THE
WESTERLY GRADIENT BREEZE IS STRONG ENOUGH THE EAST COAST MAY NOT
SEE MUCH...IF ANY SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD MAX
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

THE INTERIOR SHOULD SEE STORMS/SHOWERS END FIRST THEN THE EAST COAST
WHERE STORMS SHOULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PAST SUNSET. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

MON-TUE...AXIS OF STRONG JET TRANSITING THE GULF CST AND SE STATES
MON AND INTO TUE WL PROVIDE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO FORCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME WL LIKELY BE STRONG ON
MON WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGHER
MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY OF ASCENT REGION WL LEAD TO HIGHER CHCS ON
MON WITH TAPERING BACK COVERAGE AREA WIDE TUE...

REST OF WEEK...DEPARTURE OF STRONG UPR WIND MAXIMA WL BRING
EVOLUTION TO ZONAL PATTERN WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH DOWNSTREAM ACTING
TO STABILIZE AIRMASS...WITH SOME DRYING AS WELL OVER THE NORTH AT
MIDWEEK. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE
WL FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WED-THU WITH AT LEAST
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FCST LACKING ANY NOTABLE
PATTERN CHG AND OR DRYING OF THE AMBIENT AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SPOTS OF MVFR MIST AND SOME SHALLOW PATCHES OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MIFG 07Z-12Z. PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 18Z-20Z AS WEST
COAST COAST CLOUDS START TO THICKEN AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPO MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS 20Z-22Z INTERIOR AND 22Z-02Z AT THE
COAST AS LINGERING SHWRS/STORMS LINGER ON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
SUNSET. VFR AFT 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EASTWARD MOVING STORMS COMING OFF THE MAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN.

MON-THU...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MON AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA AS IT
STALLS TUE. SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INCREASE UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE
OF VOLUSIA COUNTY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLOW
THEN WEAKENS WITH N/NE WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BECOMING ONSHORE
INTO MIDWEEK AS FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WL REMAIN
4 FEET OR LESS.

BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING
STORMS IN THE AFT AND EVE MAINLY MON AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  69  83  66 /  60  40  50  20
MCO  90  70  87  67 /  50  30  60  20
MLB  88  71  86  68 /  30  50  60  30
VRB  89  70  84  68 /  30  50  70  30
LEE  88  69  82  66 /  60  30  50  20
SFB  89  71  83  67 /  50  40  60  20
ORL  89  71  83  67 /  50  30  60  20
FPR  89  68  85  67 /  30  50  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 190804
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
403 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
...MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES DAILY THIS WEEK...

TODAY-TONIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WEST
EAST ORIENTED WHILE SLOWING TONIGHT AS THE FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL
TO THE MID LEVEL FLOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WL FEED
WARM MOIST GULF/CARIBBEAN AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WARM MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA
AND THE FRONT LEFT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET CROSSING
OVERHEAD SHOULD PRODUCE LIKELY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND 50 POP FOR THE REST OF THE AREA.

DEEPENING AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
TEND TO PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
PENINSULA AND "PIN" THE EAST COAST BREEZE TO THE COAST. IF THE
WESTERLY GRADIENT BREEZE IS STRONG ENOUGH THE EAST COAST MAY NOT
SEE MUCH...IF ANY SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD MAX
TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

THE INTERIOR SHOULD SEE STORMS/SHOWERS END FIRST THEN THE EAST COAST
WHERE STORMS SHOULD LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PAST SUNSET. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

MON-TUE...AXIS OF STRONG JET TRANSITING THE GULF CST AND SE STATES
MON AND INTO TUE WL PROVIDE UNSETTLED CONDS WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE TO FORCE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME WL LIKELY BE STRONG ON
MON WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGHER
MOISTURE AND PROXIMITY OF ASCENT REGION WL LEAD TO HIGHER CHCS ON
MON WITH TAPERING BACK COVERAGE AREA WIDE TUE...

REST OF WEEK...DEPARTURE OF STRONG UPR WIND MAXIMA WL BRING
EVOLUTION TO ZONAL PATTERN WITH BROAD WEAK HIGH DOWNSTREAM ACTING
TO STABILIZE AIRMASS...WITH SOME DRYING AS WELL OVER THE NORTH AT
MIDWEEK. AFTERNOON BOUNDARY INTERACTION AND SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE
WL FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS WED-THU WITH AT LEAST
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FCST LACKING ANY NOTABLE
PATTERN CHG AND OR DRYING OF THE AMBIENT AIRMASS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SPOTS OF MVFR MIST AND SOME SHALLOW PATCHES OF IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN MIFG 07Z-12Z. PREVAILING VFR THROUGH 18Z-20Z AS WEST
COAST COAST CLOUDS START TO THICKEN AS THEY TRACK ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPO MVFR IN SCT SHWRS/TSTMS 20Z-22Z INTERIOR AND 22Z-02Z AT THE
COAST AS LINGERING SHWRS/STORMS LINGER ON FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
SUNSET. VFR AFT 04Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING EASTWARD MOVING STORMS COMING OFF THE MAIN WILL BE
THE MAIN CONCERN.

MON-THU...(MODIFIED PREV DISC) WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. MON AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA AS IT
STALLS TUE. SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INCREASE UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE
OF VOLUSIA COUNTY LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLOW
THEN WEAKENS WITH N/NE WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BECOMING ONSHORE
INTO MIDWEEK AS FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WL REMAIN
4 FEET OR LESS.

BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING
STORMS IN THE AFT AND EVE MAINLY MON AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  69  83  66 /  60  40  50  20
MCO  90  70  87  67 /  50  30  60  20
MLB  88  71  86  68 /  30  50  60  30
VRB  89  70  84  68 /  30  50  70  30
LEE  88  69  82  66 /  60  30  50  20
SFB  89  71  83  67 /  50  40  60  20
ORL  89  71  83  67 /  50  30  60  20
FPR  89  68  85  67 /  30  50  70  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY...FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING WHAT
LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS TIMING
MAY ALSO SLIGHTLY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AREA WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE, COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. PRECIP CHCS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM,
AND VCSH PROB ISN`T MERITED FOR SOUTHERNMOST AIRPORTS. LIKE THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS, BKN MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A LITTLE WHILE
AFTER OR NEAR SUNRISE. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS CLOSER THIS EVENING,
AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3
FOOT RANGE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  70 /  20  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  74  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
MIAMI            90  75  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
NAPLES           88  74  87  71 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY...FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING WHAT
LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS TIMING
MAY ALSO SLIGHTLY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AREA WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE, COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. PRECIP CHCS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM,
AND VCSH PROB ISN`T MERITED FOR SOUTHERNMOST AIRPORTS. LIKE THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS, BKN MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A LITTLE WHILE
AFTER OR NEAR SUNRISE. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS CLOSER THIS EVENING,
AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3
FOOT RANGE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  70 /  20  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  74  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
MIAMI            90  75  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
NAPLES           88  74  87  71 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE GIVING WAY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE
STRONG UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER CUBA EXTENDING NORTH AND INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP AFTERNOON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RATHER LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE IN
THE DAY...FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ALLOWING WHAT
LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COASTAL AREAS AGAIN.

RIDGING CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN INTO MONDAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS SWINGS INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING. BELIEVE THIS TIMING
MAY ALSO SLIGHTLY INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT SHOULD BE
ENHANCED BY PASSING MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND A 100 KT UPPER JET
STREAK JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS
STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING.
THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE PUSHING BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
REDUCING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AREA WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WITH 90+ READINGS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE, COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. PRECIP CHCS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM,
AND VCSH PROB ISN`T MERITED FOR SOUTHERNMOST AIRPORTS. LIKE THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS, BKN MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A LITTLE WHILE
AFTER OR NEAR SUNRISE. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS CLOSER THIS EVENING,
AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH MONDAY AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3
FOOT RANGE. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  70 /  20  30  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  74  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
MIAMI            90  75  89  73 /  10  20  50  30
NAPLES           88  74  87  71 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190613
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE, COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. PRECIP CHCS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM,
AND VCSH PROB ISN`T MERITED FOR SOUTHERNMOST AIRPORTS. LIKE THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS, BKN MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A LITTLE WHILE
AFTER OR NEAR SUNRISE. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS CLOSER THIS EVENING,
AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS BOTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST COULD SET OFF
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TRIGGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30% POP FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARDS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE EAST COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EVERGLADES DUE TO RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND SIMILAR PATTERN TO PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHEN LIGHT
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  72  86  70 /  30  40  70  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  76  88  73 /  20  30  60  30
MIAMI            89  74  89  72 /  20  30  50  30
NAPLES           88  73  86  70 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190613
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE, COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. PRECIP CHCS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM,
AND VCSH PROB ISN`T MERITED FOR SOUTHERNMOST AIRPORTS. LIKE THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS, BKN MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A LITTLE WHILE
AFTER OR NEAR SUNRISE. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS CLOSER THIS EVENING,
AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS BOTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST COULD SET OFF
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TRIGGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30% POP FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARDS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE EAST COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EVERGLADES DUE TO RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND SIMILAR PATTERN TO PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHEN LIGHT
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  72  86  70 /  30  40  70  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  76  88  73 /  20  30  60  30
MIAMI            89  74  89  72 /  20  30  50  30
NAPLES           88  73  86  70 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190613
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE, COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. PRECIP CHCS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM,
AND VCSH PROB ISN`T MERITED FOR SOUTHERNMOST AIRPORTS. LIKE THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS, BKN MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A LITTLE WHILE
AFTER OR NEAR SUNRISE. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS CLOSER THIS EVENING,
AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS BOTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST COULD SET OFF
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TRIGGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30% POP FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARDS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE EAST COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EVERGLADES DUE TO RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND SIMILAR PATTERN TO PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHEN LIGHT
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  72  86  70 /  30  40  70  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  76  88  73 /  20  30  60  30
MIAMI            89  74  89  72 /  20  30  50  30
NAPLES           88  73  86  70 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190613
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE, COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. PRECIP CHCS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM,
AND VCSH PROB ISN`T MERITED FOR SOUTHERNMOST AIRPORTS. LIKE THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS, BKN MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A LITTLE WHILE
AFTER OR NEAR SUNRISE. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS CLOSER THIS EVENING,
AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS BOTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST COULD SET OFF
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TRIGGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30% POP FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARDS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE EAST COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EVERGLADES DUE TO RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND SIMILAR PATTERN TO PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHEN LIGHT
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  72  86  70 /  30  40  70  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  76  88  73 /  20  30  60  30
MIAMI            89  74  89  72 /  20  30  50  30
NAPLES           88  73  86  70 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190613
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE, COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. PRECIP CHCS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM,
AND VCSH PROB ISN`T MERITED FOR SOUTHERNMOST AIRPORTS. LIKE THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS, BKN MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A LITTLE WHILE
AFTER OR NEAR SUNRISE. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS CLOSER THIS EVENING,
AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS BOTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST COULD SET OFF
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TRIGGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30% POP FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARDS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE EAST COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EVERGLADES DUE TO RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND SIMILAR PATTERN TO PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHEN LIGHT
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  72  86  70 /  30  40  70  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  76  88  73 /  20  30  60  30
MIAMI            89  74  89  72 /  20  30  50  30
NAPLES           88  73  86  70 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190613
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE, COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR STORMS AFFECTING PBI LATE, AND
POSSIBLY SOME SHRAS AT APF. PRECIP CHCS FARTHER SOUTH LOOK SLIM,
AND VCSH PROB ISN`T MERITED FOR SOUTHERNMOST AIRPORTS. LIKE THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS, BKN MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP FOR A LITTLE WHILE
AFTER OR NEAR SUNRISE. UPPER DIVERGENCE GETS CLOSER THIS EVENING,
AS ACTIVITY MAY LAST DEEPER INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS THAN USUAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...
LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS BOTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST COULD SET OFF
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TRIGGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30% POP FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARDS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE EAST COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EVERGLADES DUE TO RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND SIMILAR PATTERN TO PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHEN LIGHT
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  72  86  70 /  30  40  70  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  76  88  73 /  20  30  60  30
MIAMI            89  74  89  72 /  20  30  50  30
NAPLES           88  73  86  70 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KJAX 190120
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY... SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PRODUCING THIS STRONG CONVECTION PUSHED NORTHWARD.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINING CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE WITH
PREVAILING WESTERLIES ALOFT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL IN
NATURE AND REMAIN NEAR NIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THE
REST OF THE EVENING. THE HI-RES ARW HAS HANDLED THIS SCENARIO VERY
WELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL FOR THE TIMING AND
MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
STRONGEST KINEMATICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. HENCE...LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITION AND COMMENCEMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

SUNDAY...THE ARW DOES SHOW THE AFORMENTIONED LIMITED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE GA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PRECIPICE OF THE
UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...DIFFLUENT FLOW AND A BAND OF FORCING
IN CONCERT WITH MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINING A LINE OF
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ON THE WESTERN CWA DOORSTEP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS BAND IS ANTICIPATED
TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BRING NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SE GA AND NE FL REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY...SHEERED
ENVIRONMENT...FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...WHERE HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. THE
FORCING DECREASES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH IN NE FL AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH THE MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSHERE AND POTENTIAL
TRAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED WITH
SOME POCKETS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF STATE ROUTE 1 IN SE GA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AS MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT SPREADS OVER FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES
TRACKING NORTH AND EAST...COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT AND
BETTER DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS
CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIP COVERAGE MON COMPARED TO SUN. DESPITE
LESSER COVERAGE...MODEL GUIDNCE SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 2000 J/KG CAPE AND
150-200 0-3KM SR-HELICITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREA
OVER SE GA MON.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT SGJ AND SSI
THROUGH 02Z.VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AT VQQ AFTER 06Z. LOW
STRATUS CIGS OF 1000-1500 FT ARE POSSIBLE AT GNV AND SGJ TOWARDS
10Z-11Z...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SUB-VFR CIGS IN
THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS BY 13Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 10 KTS AFTER 13Z. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 19Z...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS AND 2-4FT SEAS EXPECTED
THRU MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND LOW SEAS TUE/WED. BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
MON NIGHT...WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING
SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  67  83 /  20  80  20  30
SSI  68  80  69  82 /  20  70  40  30
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  50  60  30  30
SGJ  69  82  69  83 /  40  60  30  30
GNV  68  85  68  85 /  10  60  20  30
OCF  68  85  69  85 /   0  60  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/NELSON/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KJAX 190120
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY... SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PRODUCING THIS STRONG CONVECTION PUSHED NORTHWARD.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINING CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE WITH
PREVAILING WESTERLIES ALOFT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL IN
NATURE AND REMAIN NEAR NIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THE
REST OF THE EVENING. THE HI-RES ARW HAS HANDLED THIS SCENARIO VERY
WELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL FOR THE TIMING AND
MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
STRONGEST KINEMATICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. HENCE...LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITION AND COMMENCEMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

SUNDAY...THE ARW DOES SHOW THE AFORMENTIONED LIMITED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE GA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PRECIPICE OF THE
UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...DIFFLUENT FLOW AND A BAND OF FORCING
IN CONCERT WITH MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINING A LINE OF
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ON THE WESTERN CWA DOORSTEP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS BAND IS ANTICIPATED
TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BRING NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SE GA AND NE FL REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY...SHEERED
ENVIRONMENT...FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...WHERE HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. THE
FORCING DECREASES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH IN NE FL AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH THE MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSHERE AND POTENTIAL
TRAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED WITH
SOME POCKETS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF STATE ROUTE 1 IN SE GA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AS MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT SPREADS OVER FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES
TRACKING NORTH AND EAST...COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT AND
BETTER DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS
CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIP COVERAGE MON COMPARED TO SUN. DESPITE
LESSER COVERAGE...MODEL GUIDNCE SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 2000 J/KG CAPE AND
150-200 0-3KM SR-HELICITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREA
OVER SE GA MON.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT SGJ AND SSI
THROUGH 02Z.VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AT VQQ AFTER 06Z. LOW
STRATUS CIGS OF 1000-1500 FT ARE POSSIBLE AT GNV AND SGJ TOWARDS
10Z-11Z...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SUB-VFR CIGS IN
THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS BY 13Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 10 KTS AFTER 13Z. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 19Z...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS AND 2-4FT SEAS EXPECTED
THRU MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND LOW SEAS TUE/WED. BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
MON NIGHT...WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING
SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  67  83 /  20  80  20  30
SSI  68  80  69  82 /  20  70  40  30
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  50  60  30  30
SGJ  69  82  69  83 /  40  60  30  30
GNV  68  85  68  85 /  10  60  20  30
OCF  68  85  69  85 /   0  60  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/NELSON/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 190120
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY... SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTION
HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER THIS EVENING AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY PRODUCING THIS STRONG CONVECTION PUSHED NORTHWARD.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINING CONVECTION HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE WITH
PREVAILING WESTERLIES ALOFT. THE CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNAL IN
NATURE AND REMAIN NEAR NIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THE
REST OF THE EVENING. THE HI-RES ARW HAS HANDLED THIS SCENARIO VERY
WELL AND WILL CONTINUE TO UTILIZE THE MODEL FOR THE TIMING AND
MOVEMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE
STRONGEST KINEMATICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WELL WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE NOCTURNAL HOURS AND THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. HENCE...LOWERED POPS CONSIDERABLY BRINGING SOME
PRECIPITION AND COMMENCEMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.

SUNDAY...THE ARW DOES SHOW THE AFORMENTIONED LIMITED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. THE NORTHERN SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE GA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PRECIPICE OF THE
UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...DIFFLUENT FLOW AND A BAND OF FORCING
IN CONCERT WITH MOISTURE LADEN SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINING A LINE OF
SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY ON THE WESTERN CWA DOORSTEP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THIS BAND IS ANTICIPATED
TO TRANSLATE TO THE EAST INTO THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
BRING NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SE GA AND NE FL REGION. THE BEST INSTABILITY...SHEERED
ENVIRONMENT...FORCING AND INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE OVER THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CWA...WHERE HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT. THE
FORCING DECREASES FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTH IN NE FL AND NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH THE MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSHERE AND POTENTIAL
TRAINING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...RAINFALL WILL BE ENHANCED WITH
SOME POCKETS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF STATE ROUTE 1 IN SE GA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AS MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT SPREADS OVER FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES
TRACKING NORTH AND EAST...COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT AND
BETTER DYNAMICS PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS
CONSIDERABLY LESS PRECIP COVERAGE MON COMPARED TO SUN. DESPITE
LESSER COVERAGE...MODEL GUIDNCE SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 2000 J/KG CAPE AND
150-200 0-3KM SR-HELICITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREA
OVER SE GA MON.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED AT SGJ AND SSI
THROUGH 02Z.VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z. MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY DEVELOP AT VQQ AFTER 06Z. LOW
STRATUS CIGS OF 1000-1500 FT ARE POSSIBLE AT GNV AND SGJ TOWARDS
10Z-11Z...BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE SUB-VFR CIGS IN
THE 00Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS BY 13Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 10 KTS AFTER 13Z. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PLACED PROB30 GROUPS FOR GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 19Z...AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS AND 2-4FT SEAS EXPECTED
THRU MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND LOW SEAS TUE/WED. BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
MON NIGHT...WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING
SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  67  83 /  20  80  20  30
SSI  68  80  69  82 /  20  70  40  30
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  50  60  30  30
SGJ  69  82  69  83 /  40  60  30  30
GNV  68  85  68  85 /  10  60  20  30
OCF  68  85  69  85 /   0  60  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/NELSON/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KKEY 190117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BROAD...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST
UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST
BELOW ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF APRIL. DESPITE ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL AVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT FL015-020.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1899...1.37 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 18TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 116 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 190117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BROAD...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST
UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST
BELOW ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF APRIL. DESPITE ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL AVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT FL015-020.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1899...1.37 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 18TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 116 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 190117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BROAD...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST
UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST
BELOW ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF APRIL. DESPITE ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL AVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT FL015-020.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1899...1.37 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 18TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 116 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 190117
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
920 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BROAD...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MOIST
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUE JUST
UNDER ONE AND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT. BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...PWAT VALUES WILL BE JUST
BELOW ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF APRIL. DESPITE ABUNDANT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED TONIGHT
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND WILL AVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS. JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT FL015-020.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1899...1.37 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 18TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 116 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 190051
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT... WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WELL INTO NORTH FLORIDA...DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLDING BACK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN FAIRLY MEAGER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THE LACK OF SEA BREEZE DID ALLOW FOR
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH BOTH SEEING
THEIR FIRST 90F DAY OF THE YEAR AND ALSO BOTH BREAKING DAILY RECORD
HIGHS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
BREVARD...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
TREASURE COAST INTO LATE EVENING AS THE LATE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ANY
OTHER BOUNDARIES. HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
VOLUSIA...LIKELY THE INTERACTION OF THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW FROM
ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH. GIVEN THAT RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
OFF FLAGLER IN NW FLOW...WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION HERE AS WELL.

EVENING FORECAST UPDATES WILL INVOLVE A FEW CHANGES FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE U60S-L70S AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG TO ALL COUNTIES.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SUN...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLC WITH A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX DURING THE DAY...AND THROUGH THE BIG
BEND/NRN THIRD OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS IT
DOES...A CYCLONICALLY CURVED H25 JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE ERN GULF
PLACING THE PENINSULA IN FAVORABLE UPR DIVG PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE
WARM/HUMID SRLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A MORE BACKED SFC FLOW
WILL ALLOW BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES TO FORM AND STEADILY PUSH
INLAND...WITH THE GULF COAST BREEZE MAKING SLIGHTLY BETTER INLAND
PENETRATION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE CTRL-ERN PENINSULA FOR SHRA/TS
WITH HIGHER COVERALL COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS 60
NORTH/50 SOUTH - WORRIED THIS MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH GIVEN MOS HAS BEEN
HIGH-BALLING RAIN CHCS AS OF LATE. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES LOOK A
BIT MORE CONDUCIVE...GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCED ASCENT PATTERN.
MAXES IN THE U80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 OVER THE CTRL-SOUTH
INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY MINIMAL COVERAGE OF TS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLD - WDLY SCT TSRA AFFECTING COASTAL SITES FROM KTIX
SOUTHWARDS AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES THROUGH
19/04Z. MAIN IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM KVRB SOUTHWARDS. AREAS
MVFR MIST AND SOME SHALLOW PATCHES OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MIFG 19/07Z-
12Z. SYNOPTIC SETUP MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER COVERAGE ON SUN WITH
ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING ON BOTH SEA BREEZES AFTER 19/16Z BECOMING SCT-
NMRS AFTER 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE FLOW BACKS TO SRLY AT AROUND 8-12KT TONIGHT INTO
SUN WITH A 3-4FT SWELL...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DECAY. WINDS WILL
BACK TO SE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRC.


BOATERS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR FAST
APPROACHING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 190051
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT... WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WELL INTO NORTH FLORIDA...DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA...ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...AND STRONG WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLDING BACK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS BEEN FAIRLY MEAGER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER THE LACK OF SEA BREEZE DID ALLOW FOR
QUITE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH MELBOURNE AND VERO BEACH BOTH SEEING
THEIR FIRST 90F DAY OF THE YEAR AND ALSO BOTH BREAKING DAILY RECORD
HIGHS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
BREVARD...SOUTHERN OSCEOLA...AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
TREASURE COAST INTO LATE EVENING AS THE LATE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ANY
OTHER BOUNDARIES. HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
VOLUSIA...LIKELY THE INTERACTION OF THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW FROM
ACTIVITY FURTHER NORTH. GIVEN THAT RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING
OFF FLAGLER IN NW FLOW...WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION HERE AS WELL.

EVENING FORECAST UPDATES WILL INVOLVE A FEW CHANGES FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE U60S-L70S AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG TO ALL COUNTIES.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SUN...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLC WITH A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX DURING THE DAY...AND THROUGH THE BIG
BEND/NRN THIRD OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS IT
DOES...A CYCLONICALLY CURVED H25 JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE ERN GULF
PLACING THE PENINSULA IN FAVORABLE UPR DIVG PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE
WARM/HUMID SRLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A MORE BACKED SFC FLOW
WILL ALLOW BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES TO FORM AND STEADILY PUSH
INLAND...WITH THE GULF COAST BREEZE MAKING SLIGHTLY BETTER INLAND
PENETRATION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE CTRL-ERN PENINSULA FOR SHRA/TS
WITH HIGHER COVERALL COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS 60
NORTH/50 SOUTH - WORRIED THIS MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH GIVEN MOS HAS BEEN
HIGH-BALLING RAIN CHCS AS OF LATE. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES LOOK A
BIT MORE CONDUCIVE...GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCED ASCENT PATTERN.
MAXES IN THE U80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 OVER THE CTRL-SOUTH
INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...ONLY MINIMAL COVERAGE OF TS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLD - WDLY SCT TSRA AFFECTING COASTAL SITES FROM KTIX
SOUTHWARDS AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES THROUGH
19/04Z. MAIN IMPACTS WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM KVRB SOUTHWARDS. AREAS
MVFR MIST AND SOME SHALLOW PATCHES OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MIFG 19/07Z-
12Z. SYNOPTIC SETUP MORE FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER COVERAGE ON SUN WITH
ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING ON BOTH SEA BREEZES AFTER 19/16Z BECOMING SCT-
NMRS AFTER 19Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE FLOW BACKS TO SRLY AT AROUND 8-12KT TONIGHT INTO
SUN WITH A 3-4FT SWELL...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DECAY. WINDS WILL
BACK TO SE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRC.


BOATERS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR FAST
APPROACHING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/PENDERGRAST



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190046
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
846 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS BOTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST COULD SET OFF
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TRIGGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30% POP FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARDS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE EAST COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EVERGLADES DUE TO RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND SIMILAR PATTERN TO PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHEN LIGHT
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  88  72  86 /  30  30  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  88  76  88 /  20  20  30  60
MIAMI            75  89  74  89 /  10  20  30  50
NAPLES           74  88  73  86 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190046
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
846 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS BOTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST COULD SET OFF
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TRIGGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30% POP FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARDS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE EAST COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EVERGLADES DUE TO RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND SIMILAR PATTERN TO PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHEN LIGHT
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  88  72  86 /  30  30  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  88  76  88 /  20  20  30  60
MIAMI            75  89  74  89 /  10  20  30  50
NAPLES           74  88  73  86 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190046
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
846 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN PALM BEACH AND
NORTHERN BROWARD COUNTIES WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO AS BOTH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TAPER OFF.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST COULD SET OFF
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TRIGGER ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...THEREFORE WILL LEAVE IN A 20/30% POP FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARDS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER NEAR THE EAST COAST AROUND DAYBREAK. ADDED MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EVERGLADES DUE TO RAIN-
COOLED AIR AND SIMILAR PATTERN TO PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WHEN LIGHT
FOG HAS BEEN NOTED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  88  72  86 /  30  30  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  88  76  88 /  20  20  30  60
MIAMI            75  89  74  89 /  10  20  30  50
NAPLES           74  88  73  86 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KTBW 190042
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO THIS EVENING. A TRIO OF JET STREAKS WILL DETERMINE THE
FATE OF THIS UPPER LOW WHICH WILL INEVITABLY IMPACT THE WEATHER
ACROSS FLORIDA. AN 80 KNOT JET STREAK ENTERING MONTANA UPSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER LOW ... COMBINED WITH A 100 KNOT STREAK STRETCHING
FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ... AND A 120 KNOT
STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ALL ENABLE THE UPPER VORTEX TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN UP TO THE EAST OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES STATES MON-WED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LEAN TOWARD A
STALLED OR QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW PROVIDING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL VISIBILITY PROBABILIY OUTPUT SUGGESTS
ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY LOW STRATUS BELOW 1000 FEET OVER THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH AREAS OF BR. GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTION OF FG OR MIFG IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO CEDAR KEY CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL GRADIENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS. RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...10/LAMARRE
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA
UPPER AIR/OBSERVATIONS...007/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KTBW 190042
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO THIS EVENING. A TRIO OF JET STREAKS WILL DETERMINE THE
FATE OF THIS UPPER LOW WHICH WILL INEVITABLY IMPACT THE WEATHER
ACROSS FLORIDA. AN 80 KNOT JET STREAK ENTERING MONTANA UPSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER LOW ... COMBINED WITH A 100 KNOT STREAK STRETCHING
FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ... AND A 120 KNOT
STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ALL ENABLE THE UPPER VORTEX TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN UP TO THE EAST OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES STATES MON-WED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LEAN TOWARD A
STALLED OR QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW PROVIDING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL VISIBILITY PROBABILIY OUTPUT SUGGESTS
ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY LOW STRATUS BELOW 1000 FEET OVER THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH AREAS OF BR. GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTION OF FG OR MIFG IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO CEDAR KEY CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL GRADIENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS. RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...10/LAMARRE
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA
UPPER AIR/OBSERVATIONS...007/DOUGHERTY



000
FXUS62 KTAE 190025
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
825 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND
PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS OVERNIGHT TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COME TO AND END THIS EVENING AND WE`LL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
DECAYING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ADVECTING INLAND OVERNIGHT.
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR DAWN, A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE A SQUALL LINE AT THE DOOR OF OUR
ALABAMA AND PANHANDLE COUNTIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR
TO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. A
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECP-DHN CORRIDOR AROUND
SUNRISE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [408 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
+PV ANOMALY WILL SWING E-NEWARD, DECAYING INTO A SW TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOW HEADS
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, IT WILL ENHANCE THE UL JET AS WELL AS THE
LLJ. THIS +PV ANOMALY ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING LIFTING TOWARD THE NERN STATES BY MONDAY, TRAILING A COLD
FRONT WITH IT ALONG THE ERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY, OUR
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH
MOST OF THE STORMS CLEARING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A RICH PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL FEED THIS SYSTEM AND ALLOW MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2", BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENHANCED LLJ AND UL
JET WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ALTHOUGH HAIL
AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT
BE RULED OUT.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRIER, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE DISTURBED
PATTERN WILL QUICKLY RETURN WITH MORE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
EJECTING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUD
COVER RETURN WITH 20-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TOMORROW AS A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. MORE CAUTIONARY PERIODS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES, BUT AT THIS TIME ADVISORY LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME PATCHY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH
MANY REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6"
POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  81  67  84  64 /  50  70  30  30  10
PANAMA CITY   71  78  71  78  65 /  70  80  20  30  10
DOTHAN        68  79  66  81  59 /  80  90  20  30  10
ALBANY        69  79  66  82  59 /  50  80  20  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  83  67  86  62 /  30  80  20  30  10
CROSS CITY    70  83  67  81  65 /  30  60  30  40  10
APALACHICOLA  73  79  71  80  67 /  40  70  30  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL
     FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND
     BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-
     LIBERTY-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-
     EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-
     SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 190025
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
825 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND
PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS OVERNIGHT TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COME TO AND END THIS EVENING AND WE`LL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
DECAYING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ADVECTING INLAND OVERNIGHT.
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR DAWN, A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE A SQUALL LINE AT THE DOOR OF OUR
ALABAMA AND PANHANDLE COUNTIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR
TO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. A
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECP-DHN CORRIDOR AROUND
SUNRISE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [408 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
+PV ANOMALY WILL SWING E-NEWARD, DECAYING INTO A SW TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOW HEADS
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, IT WILL ENHANCE THE UL JET AS WELL AS THE
LLJ. THIS +PV ANOMALY ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING LIFTING TOWARD THE NERN STATES BY MONDAY, TRAILING A COLD
FRONT WITH IT ALONG THE ERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY, OUR
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH
MOST OF THE STORMS CLEARING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A RICH PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL FEED THIS SYSTEM AND ALLOW MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2", BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENHANCED LLJ AND UL
JET WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ALTHOUGH HAIL
AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT
BE RULED OUT.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRIER, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE DISTURBED
PATTERN WILL QUICKLY RETURN WITH MORE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
EJECTING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUD
COVER RETURN WITH 20-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TOMORROW AS A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. MORE CAUTIONARY PERIODS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES, BUT AT THIS TIME ADVISORY LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME PATCHY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH
MANY REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6"
POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  81  67  84  64 /  50  70  30  30  10
PANAMA CITY   71  78  71  78  65 /  70  80  20  30  10
DOTHAN        68  79  66  81  59 /  80  90  20  30  10
ALBANY        69  79  66  82  59 /  50  80  20  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  83  67  86  62 /  30  80  20  30  10
CROSS CITY    70  83  67  81  65 /  30  60  30  40  10
APALACHICOLA  73  79  71  80  67 /  40  70  30  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL
     FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND
     BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-
     LIBERTY-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-
     EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-
     SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 190025
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
825 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND
PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS OVERNIGHT TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COME TO AND END THIS EVENING AND WE`LL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
DECAYING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ADVECTING INLAND OVERNIGHT.
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR DAWN, A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE A SQUALL LINE AT THE DOOR OF OUR
ALABAMA AND PANHANDLE COUNTIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR
TO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. A
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECP-DHN CORRIDOR AROUND
SUNRISE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [408 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
+PV ANOMALY WILL SWING E-NEWARD, DECAYING INTO A SW TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOW HEADS
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, IT WILL ENHANCE THE UL JET AS WELL AS THE
LLJ. THIS +PV ANOMALY ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING LIFTING TOWARD THE NERN STATES BY MONDAY, TRAILING A COLD
FRONT WITH IT ALONG THE ERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY, OUR
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH
MOST OF THE STORMS CLEARING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A RICH PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL FEED THIS SYSTEM AND ALLOW MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2", BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENHANCED LLJ AND UL
JET WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ALTHOUGH HAIL
AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT
BE RULED OUT.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRIER, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE DISTURBED
PATTERN WILL QUICKLY RETURN WITH MORE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
EJECTING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUD
COVER RETURN WITH 20-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TOMORROW AS A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. MORE CAUTIONARY PERIODS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES, BUT AT THIS TIME ADVISORY LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME PATCHY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH
MANY REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6"
POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  81  67  84  64 /  50  70  30  30  10
PANAMA CITY   71  78  71  78  65 /  70  80  20  30  10
DOTHAN        68  79  66  81  59 /  80  90  20  30  10
ALBANY        69  79  66  82  59 /  50  80  20  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  83  67  86  62 /  30  80  20  30  10
CROSS CITY    70  83  67  81  65 /  30  60  30  40  10
APALACHICOLA  73  79  71  80  67 /  40  70  30  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL
     FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND
     BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-
     LIBERTY-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-
     EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-
     SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 190025
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
825 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

OVERALL...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND
PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE POPS OVERNIGHT TO CAPTURE THE LATEST
RADAR TRENDS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COME TO AND END THIS EVENING AND WE`LL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
DECAYING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ADVECTING INLAND OVERNIGHT.
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR DAWN, A SURFACE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE A SQUALL LINE AT THE DOOR OF OUR
ALABAMA AND PANHANDLE COUNTIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 00Z MONDAY] CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR
TO IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. A
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECP-DHN CORRIDOR AROUND
SUNRISE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [408 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
+PV ANOMALY WILL SWING E-NEWARD, DECAYING INTO A SW TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOW HEADS
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, IT WILL ENHANCE THE UL JET AS WELL AS THE
LLJ. THIS +PV ANOMALY ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING LIFTING TOWARD THE NERN STATES BY MONDAY, TRAILING A COLD
FRONT WITH IT ALONG THE ERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY, OUR
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH
MOST OF THE STORMS CLEARING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A RICH PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL FEED THIS SYSTEM AND ALLOW MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2", BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENHANCED LLJ AND UL
JET WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ALTHOUGH HAIL
AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT
BE RULED OUT.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRIER, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE DISTURBED
PATTERN WILL QUICKLY RETURN WITH MORE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
EJECTING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUD
COVER RETURN WITH 20-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.


.MARINE...

WINDS WILL APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TOMORROW AS A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. MORE CAUTIONARY PERIODS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES, BUT AT THIS TIME ADVISORY LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME PATCHY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH
MANY REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6"
POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  81  67  84  64 /  50  70  30  30  10
PANAMA CITY   71  78  71  78  65 /  70  80  20  30  10
DOTHAN        68  79  66  81  59 /  80  90  20  30  10
ALBANY        69  79  66  82  59 /  50  80  20  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  83  67  86  62 /  30  80  20  30  10
CROSS CITY    70  83  67  81  65 /  30  60  30  40  10
APALACHICOLA  73  79  71  80  67 /  40  70  30  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
     EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL
     FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND
     BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-
     LIBERTY-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR BAKER-BEN HILL-CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-
     EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-
     SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 AM CDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
     FOR COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 182329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  88  72  86 /  40  30  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  88  76  88 /  20  20  30  60
MIAMI            75  89  74  89 /  10  20  30  50
NAPLES           74  88  73  86 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 182329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  88  72  86 /  40  30  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  88  76  88 /  20  20  30  60
MIAMI            75  89  74  89 /  10  20  30  50
NAPLES           74  88  73  86 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 182329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  88  72  86 /  40  30  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  88  76  88 /  20  20  30  60
MIAMI            75  89  74  89 /  10  20  30  50
NAPLES           74  88  73  86 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 182329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
LATEST RADAR TREND IS SHOWING EARLY EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENING
WITH ONLY A FEW SHRA REMAINING OVER THE INTERIOR AND NEAR THE EAST
COAST. THESES WILL DISSIPATE BY 01-02Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED AGAIN
AFT 16Z BUT ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND WAIT WITH
FURTHER UPDATES ON TIMING OF ANY POSSIBLE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
SURFACE WIND WILL BE MOSTLY L/V WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ONCE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  88  72  86 /  40  30  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  88  76  88 /  20  20  30  60
MIAMI            75  89  74  89 /  10  20  30  50
NAPLES           74  88  73  86 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 182008
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
408 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS INITIATED
SOME RATHER ROBUST CONVECTION THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE MORE
FOCUSED UPSLOPE FLOW HAS REMAINED SOUTHWEST OF OUR GULF WATERS, THUS
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS REACHED THE FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING AS THE CONVECTION DECAYS ON ITS NORTHEAST TREK. WE`RE
STARTING TO GET SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE BIG BEND, MOST
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTERSECTING
A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHERE SCATTERING IN CLOUD COVER HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE IS ALSO SOME
HIGHLY DISTURBED SEABREEZE INFLUENCE AS WELL. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COME TO AND END THIS EVENING AND WE`LL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAY
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ADVECTING INLAND OVERNIGHT. AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR DAWN, A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE A SQUALL LINE AT THE DOOR OF OUR ALABAMA AND
PANHANDLE COUNTIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.


.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
+PV ANOMALY WILL SWING E-NEWARD, DECAYING INTO A SW TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOW HEADS
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, IT WILL ENHANCE THE UL JET AS WELL AS THE
LLJ. THIS +PV ANOMALY ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING LIFTING TOWARD THE NERN STATES BY MONDAY, TRAILING A COLD
FRONT WITH IT ALONG THE ERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY, OUR
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH
MOST OF THE STORMS CLEARING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A RICH PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL FEED THIS SYSTEM AND ALLOW MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2", BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENHANCED LLJ AND UL
JET WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ALTHOUGH HAIL
AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT
BE RULED OUT.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRIER, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE DISTURBED
PATTERN WILL QUICKLY RETURN WITH MORE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
EJECTING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUD
COVER RETURN WITH 20-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] ALL SITES SHOULD SCATTER TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED  THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TLH AND VLD.
OVERNIGHT, LOW CEILINGS MIXED WITH FOG AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TOMORROW AS A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. MORE CAUTIONARY PERIODS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES, BUT AT THIS TIME ADVISORY LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME PATCHY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH
MANY REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6"
POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  81  67  84  64 /  50  70  30  30  10
PANAMA CITY   71  78  71  78  65 /  70  80  20  30  10
DOTHAN        68  79  66  81  59 /  80  90  20  30  10
ALBANY        69  79  66  82  59 /  50  80  20  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  83  67  86  62 /  30  80  20  30  10
CROSS CITY    70  83  67  81  65 /  30  60  30  40  10
APALACHICOLA  73  79  71  80  67 /  40  70  30  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     GULF-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND
     FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-LIBERTY-
     NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     BAKER-BEN HILL-CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-
     EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-
     SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 182008
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
408 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS INITIATED
SOME RATHER ROBUST CONVECTION THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE MORE
FOCUSED UPSLOPE FLOW HAS REMAINED SOUTHWEST OF OUR GULF WATERS, THUS
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS REACHED THE FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING AS THE CONVECTION DECAYS ON ITS NORTHEAST TREK. WE`RE
STARTING TO GET SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE BIG BEND, MOST
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTERSECTING
A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHERE SCATTERING IN CLOUD COVER HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE IS ALSO SOME
HIGHLY DISTURBED SEABREEZE INFLUENCE AS WELL. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COME TO AND END THIS EVENING AND WE`LL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAY
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ADVECTING INLAND OVERNIGHT. AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR DAWN, A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE A SQUALL LINE AT THE DOOR OF OUR ALABAMA AND
PANHANDLE COUNTIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.


.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
+PV ANOMALY WILL SWING E-NEWARD, DECAYING INTO A SW TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOW HEADS
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, IT WILL ENHANCE THE UL JET AS WELL AS THE
LLJ. THIS +PV ANOMALY ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING LIFTING TOWARD THE NERN STATES BY MONDAY, TRAILING A COLD
FRONT WITH IT ALONG THE ERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY, OUR
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH
MOST OF THE STORMS CLEARING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A RICH PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL FEED THIS SYSTEM AND ALLOW MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2", BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENHANCED LLJ AND UL
JET WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ALTHOUGH HAIL
AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT
BE RULED OUT.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRIER, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE DISTURBED
PATTERN WILL QUICKLY RETURN WITH MORE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
EJECTING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUD
COVER RETURN WITH 20-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] ALL SITES SHOULD SCATTER TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED  THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TLH AND VLD.
OVERNIGHT, LOW CEILINGS MIXED WITH FOG AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TOMORROW AS A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. MORE CAUTIONARY PERIODS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES, BUT AT THIS TIME ADVISORY LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME PATCHY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH
MANY REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6"
POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  81  67  84  64 /  50  70  30  30  10
PANAMA CITY   71  78  71  78  65 /  70  80  20  30  10
DOTHAN        68  79  66  81  59 /  80  90  20  30  10
ALBANY        69  79  66  82  59 /  50  80  20  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  83  67  86  62 /  30  80  20  30  10
CROSS CITY    70  83  67  81  65 /  30  60  30  40  10
APALACHICOLA  73  79  71  80  67 /  40  70  30  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     GULF-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND
     FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-LIBERTY-
     NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     BAKER-BEN HILL-CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-
     EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-
     SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 182008
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
408 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST HAS INITIATED
SOME RATHER ROBUST CONVECTION THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. THE MORE
FOCUSED UPSLOPE FLOW HAS REMAINED SOUTHWEST OF OUR GULF WATERS, THUS
ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS REACHED THE FLORIDA COAST THIS
MORNING AS THE CONVECTION DECAYS ON ITS NORTHEAST TREK. WE`RE
STARTING TO GET SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE BIG BEND, MOST
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTERSECTING
A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHERE SCATTERING IN CLOUD COVER HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM. IT`S POSSIBLE THERE IS ALSO SOME
HIGHLY DISTURBED SEABREEZE INFLUENCE AS WELL. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.

SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL COME TO AND END THIS EVENING AND WE`LL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE ROUNDS OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH DECAY
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ADVECTING INLAND OVERNIGHT. AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR DAWN, A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE A SQUALL LINE AT THE DOOR OF OUR ALABAMA AND
PANHANDLE COUNTIES EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.


.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
+PV ANOMALY WILL SWING E-NEWARD, DECAYING INTO A SW TROUGH AS IT
LIFTS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THIS LOW HEADS
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, IT WILL ENHANCE THE UL JET AS WELL AS THE
LLJ. THIS +PV ANOMALY ALOFT WILL ALSO HELP TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WITH A LOW IN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY
MORNING LIFTING TOWARD THE NERN STATES BY MONDAY, TRAILING A COLD
FRONT WITH IT ALONG THE ERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY, OUR
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY WITH
MOST OF THE STORMS CLEARING BY SUNDAY EVENING.

WITH DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST, A RICH PLUME OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL FEED THIS SYSTEM AND ALLOW MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-2", BUT HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENHANCED LLJ AND UL
JET WILL MEAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUSTS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ALTHOUGH HAIL
AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT
BE RULED OUT.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...

ALTHOUGH THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRIER, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SERN STATES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE DISTURBED
PATTERN WILL QUICKLY RETURN WITH MORE SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
EJECTING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THE AREA WILL SEE CLOUD
COVER RETURN WITH 20-30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] ALL SITES SHOULD SCATTER TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED  THUNDERSTORMS NEAR TLH AND VLD.
OVERNIGHT, LOW CEILINGS MIXED WITH FOG AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. A SQUALL LINE WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS, WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.


&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TOMORROW AS A DEVELOPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. MORE CAUTIONARY PERIODS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A DISTURBED WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES, BUT AT THIS TIME ADVISORY LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SOME PATCHY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH
MANY REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER
IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6"
POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  81  67  84  64 /  50  70  30  30  10
PANAMA CITY   71  78  71  78  65 /  70  80  20  30  10
DOTHAN        68  79  66  81  59 /  80  90  20  30  10
ALBANY        69  79  66  82  59 /  50  80  20  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  83  67  86  62 /  30  80  20  30  10
CROSS CITY    70  83  67  81  65 /  30  60  30  40  10
APALACHICOLA  73  79  71  80  67 /  40  70  30  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL
     GULF-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND
     FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-LIBERTY-
     NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON.

GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     BAKER-BEN HILL-CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-
     EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN-LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-
     SEMINOLE-TERRELL-THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH.

AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA-HENRY-HOUSTON.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 181928
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  73  87 /  40  40  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  88  75  87 /  30  20  20  50
MIAMI            75  89  74  88 /  20  10  10  50
NAPLES           74  88  73  88 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 181928
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  73  87 /  40  40  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  88  75  87 /  30  20  20  50
MIAMI            75  89  74  88 /  20  10  10  50
NAPLES           74  88  73  88 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 181928
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
328 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ASTRONOMICALLY HIGHER TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
OVER THE WEEKEND BUT SO FAR ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS THAT
MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING.

CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...SUFFICIENT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

FOR SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF SLOWLY
STARTS TO WEAKEN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
REGIONAL PWAT`S REACHING AROUND 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS PALM BEACH
COUNTY.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK...ON MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA MAINTAINING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PWAT FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.8
INCHES...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT AND DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ARE
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO MONDAY...AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. REGIONAL SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 3 FEET OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  73  87 /  40  40  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  88  75  87 /  30  20  20  50
MIAMI            75  89  74  88 /  20  10  10  50
NAPLES           74  88  73  88 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMLB 181916
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
316 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DIURNAL PATTERN EVOLVING AS ANTICIPATED
WITH WCSB HAVING ALREADY REACHED THE MID-FLORIDA RIDGE FROM POLK
COUNTY SWD. BOUNDARY HAS GOTTEN EVEN FARTHER EWD TO THE NORTH...
FROM THE OCALA/FOREST/LAKE GEORGE REGION TO THE ATTRACTIONS AREA.
DIURNAL CONVECTION PRETTY SPORADIC...WITH COVERAGE 15-25 PCT ATTM.
THE ECSB HAS NOT DEVELOPED ANY FARTHER NORTH THEN COASTAL PBC...
AND MAY NOT MAKE IT WWD PAST THE BARRIER ISLANDS GIVEN THE SURFACE
FLOW IS ABOUT 250-260/10KT. LACK OF A BOUNDARY WOULD KEEP LATE
AFTERNOON COVERAGE DOWN A BIT EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. AS IT STANDS...GIVEN LOWER OVERALL COVERAGE...DON`T PLAN ON
GOING WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD. 20 INLAND/30 ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL LIKELY SUFFICE. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AS SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. ADDED PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG TO ALL COUNTIES.

SUN...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLC WITH A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX DURING THE DAY...AND THROUGH THE BIG
BEND/NRN THIRD OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS IT
DOES...A CYCLONICALLY CURVED H25 JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE ERN GULF
PLACING THE PENINSULA IN FAVORABLE UPR DIVG PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE
WARM/HUMID SRLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A MORE BACKED SFC FLOW
WILL ALLOW BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES TO FORM AND STEADILY PUSH
INLAND...WITH THE GULF COAST BREEZE MAKING SLIGHTLY BETTER INLAND
PENETRATION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE CTRL-ERN PENINSULA FOR SHRA/TS
WITH HIGHER COVERALL COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS 60
NORTH/50 SOUTH - WORRIED THIS MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH GIVEN MOS HAS BEEN
HIGH-BALLING RAIN CHCS AS OF LATE. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES LOOK A
BIT MORE CONDUCIVE...GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCED ASCENT PATTERN.
MAXES IN THE U80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 OVER THE CTRL-SOUTH
INTERIOR.

MON-TUE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
SOUTHEAST U.S. MON AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ANOTHER PASSING WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES RELATIVELY HIGH MON...UP TO
50-60 PERCENT. SOME DRIER AIR INITIALLY BUILDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS
AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE...BUT THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH
MOISTURE REBOUNDING INTO THE AFT TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

WED-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO
THE NORTHWEST FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
NATIONS MIDSECTION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS
MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO KEEP
SUFFICIENT  MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...HIT AND MISS SHRA/TS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
AERODROMES THROUGH 00Z. PREVAILING VFR THEREAFTER INITIALLY...WITH
AREAS MVFR MIST AND SOME SHALLOW PATCHES OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MIFG
07Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE FLOW BACKS TO SRLY AT AROUND 8-12KT TONIGHT INTO
SUN WITH A 3-4FT SWELL...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DECAY. WINDS WILL
BACK TO SE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRC.

MON-THU...WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA AS IT STALLS TUE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
MAY INCREASE UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA COUNTY LATE MON
INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLOW THEN WEAKENS WITH N/NE WINDS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BECOMING ONSHORE INTO MIDWEEK AS FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING
STORMS IN THE AFT AND EVE MAINLY MON AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  87  68  84 /  30  60  30  50
MCO  70  89  69  85 /  20  60  20  50
MLB  71  88  69  85 /  30  50  30  60
VRB  70  88  70  86 /  30  50  30  60
LEE  71  87  70  84 /  20  60  20  50
SFB  71  87  70  84 /  20  60  30  50
ORL  71  88  70  85 /  20  60  20  50
FPR  70  88  69  87 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WEITLICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 181916
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
316 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DIURNAL PATTERN EVOLVING AS ANTICIPATED
WITH WCSB HAVING ALREADY REACHED THE MID-FLORIDA RIDGE FROM POLK
COUNTY SWD. BOUNDARY HAS GOTTEN EVEN FARTHER EWD TO THE NORTH...
FROM THE OCALA/FOREST/LAKE GEORGE REGION TO THE ATTRACTIONS AREA.
DIURNAL CONVECTION PRETTY SPORADIC...WITH COVERAGE 15-25 PCT ATTM.
THE ECSB HAS NOT DEVELOPED ANY FARTHER NORTH THEN COASTAL PBC...
AND MAY NOT MAKE IT WWD PAST THE BARRIER ISLANDS GIVEN THE SURFACE
FLOW IS ABOUT 250-260/10KT. LACK OF A BOUNDARY WOULD KEEP LATE
AFTERNOON COVERAGE DOWN A BIT EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. AS IT STANDS...GIVEN LOWER OVERALL COVERAGE...DON`T PLAN ON
GOING WITH A PRE-FIRST PERIOD. 20 INLAND/30 ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL LIKELY SUFFICE. MINS IN THE U60S-L70S WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AS SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT. ADDED PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG TO ALL COUNTIES.

SUN...SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLC WITH A TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN GOMEX DURING THE DAY...AND THROUGH THE BIG
BEND/NRN THIRD OF THE PENINSULA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AS IT
DOES...A CYCLONICALLY CURVED H25 JET STREAK PUSHES INTO THE ERN GULF
PLACING THE PENINSULA IN FAVORABLE UPR DIVG PATTERN. AT THE SURFACE
WARM/HUMID SRLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A MORE BACKED SFC FLOW
WILL ALLOW BOTH COASTAL SEA BREEZES TO FORM AND STEADILY PUSH
INLAND...WITH THE GULF COAST BREEZE MAKING SLIGHTLY BETTER INLAND
PENETRATION. THIS SHOULD FAVOR THE CTRL-ERN PENINSULA FOR SHRA/TS
WITH HIGHER COVERALL COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS 60
NORTH/50 SOUTH - WORRIED THIS MIGHT BE A TAD HIGH GIVEN MOS HAS BEEN
HIGH-BALLING RAIN CHCS AS OF LATE. HOWEVER THE PATTERN DOES LOOK A
BIT MORE CONDUCIVE...GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE FORCED ASCENT PATTERN.
MAXES IN THE U80S WITH SOME READINGS AROUND 90 OVER THE CTRL-SOUTH
INTERIOR.

MON-TUE...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
SOUTHEAST U.S. MON AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS ANOTHER PASSING WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES RELATIVELY HIGH MON...UP TO
50-60 PERCENT. SOME DRIER AIR INITIALLY BUILDS INTO NORTHERN AREAS
AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE...BUT THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH
MOISTURE REBOUNDING INTO THE AFT TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. TEMPS REMAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 60S MOST AREAS.

WED-FRI...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO
THE NORTHWEST FRI AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
NATIONS MIDSECTION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS
MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND BEGINS TO SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO KEEP
SUFFICIENT  MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO MAINTAIN
CHANCE POPS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...HIT AND MISS SHRA/TS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL
AERODROMES THROUGH 00Z. PREVAILING VFR THEREAFTER INITIALLY...WITH
AREAS MVFR MIST AND SOME SHALLOW PATCHES OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN MIFG
07Z-12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE FLOW BACKS TO SRLY AT AROUND 8-12KT TONIGHT INTO
SUN WITH A 3-4FT SWELL...WHICH WILL BE SLOW TO DECAY. WINDS WILL
BACK TO SE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CIRC.

MON-THU...WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MON AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA AS IT STALLS TUE. SOUTHWEST FLOW
MAY INCREASE UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE OF VOLUSIA COUNTY LATE MON
INTO MON NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FLOW THEN WEAKENS WITH N/NE WINDS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY BECOMING ONSHORE INTO MIDWEEK AS FRONT WASHES
OUT ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING
STORMS IN THE AFT AND EVE MAINLY MON AND TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  87  68  84 /  30  60  30  50
MCO  70  89  69  85 /  20  60  20  50
MLB  71  88  69  85 /  30  50  30  60
VRB  70  88  70  86 /  30  50  30  60
LEE  71  87  70  84 /  20  60  20  50
SFB  71  87  70  84 /  20  60  30  50
ORL  71  88  70  85 /  20  60  20  50
FPR  70  88  69  87 /  30  50  30  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 181851
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG EXISTING
BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ALONG WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SRN GA
AND FL SEA BREEZES. HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WITH PEAK COVERAGE TOWARD
00Z WITH DECREASE IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW LIKELY TO PIN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO COAST...THUS HRRR PRIMARILY FOCUSING ANY DEVELOPMENT
ON EASTWARD MOVING WEST-COAST SEA BREEZE. WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT...WILL KEEP POP VALUES BELOW 50 THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE WHILE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
MS NORTHEAST TO IN DURING DAY SUNDAY...WITH OUR FORECAST IN WARM
SECTOR. GREATER LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW WILL PIN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO COAST WHILE ADVANCING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EASTWARD. THIS
COMBINED WITH ACTIVITY COMING FROM NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTS HIGH POPS...PERHAPS HIGHEST WRN/NRN AREAS...GENERALLY
50-70 PCT.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADS OVER
FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING NORTH AND
EAST...COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT AND BETTER DYNAMICS
PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS CONSIDERABLY LESS
PRECIP COVERAGE MON COMPARED TO SUN. WILL MAINTAIN 30 POP MON.
DESPITE LESSER COVERAGE...MODEL GUIDNCE SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 2000 J/KG
CAPE AND 150-200 0-3KM SR-HELICITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK
AREA OVER MOST OF OUR AREA MON.

WARM SUN AND MON WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR...MID
80S I-10 SOUTHWARD.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT OFFSHORE MON NIGHT.  FRONT
WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA TUE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINE LOW POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

LITTLE CHANGE WED-FRI...WITH ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FL PENINSULA. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME NEXT SAT...BASED ON
GFS AND ECM...AND WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING THEN. HIGH TEMPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MID 80S BY END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY LOWERER IN ISOLATED TSRA AND AREAS WHERE LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS AND 2-4FT SEAS EXPECTED
THRU MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND LOW SEAS TUE/WED. BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
MON NIGHT...WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.

.RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  67  83 /  40  80  20  30
SSI  68  80  69  82 /  30  60  40  30
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  30  60  30  30
SGJ  69  82  69  83 /  30  50  30  30
GNV  68  85  68  85 /  20  60  20  30
OCF  68  85  69  85 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 181851
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG EXISTING
BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ALONG WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SRN GA
AND FL SEA BREEZES. HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WITH PEAK COVERAGE TOWARD
00Z WITH DECREASE IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW LIKELY TO PIN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO COAST...THUS HRRR PRIMARILY FOCUSING ANY DEVELOPMENT
ON EASTWARD MOVING WEST-COAST SEA BREEZE. WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT...WILL KEEP POP VALUES BELOW 50 THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE WHILE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
MS NORTHEAST TO IN DURING DAY SUNDAY...WITH OUR FORECAST IN WARM
SECTOR. GREATER LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW WILL PIN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO COAST WHILE ADVANCING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EASTWARD. THIS
COMBINED WITH ACTIVITY COMING FROM NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTS HIGH POPS...PERHAPS HIGHEST WRN/NRN AREAS...GENERALLY
50-70 PCT.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADS OVER
FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING NORTH AND
EAST...COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT AND BETTER DYNAMICS
PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS CONSIDERABLY LESS
PRECIP COVERAGE MON COMPARED TO SUN. WILL MAINTAIN 30 POP MON.
DESPITE LESSER COVERAGE...MODEL GUIDNCE SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 2000 J/KG
CAPE AND 150-200 0-3KM SR-HELICITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK
AREA OVER MOST OF OUR AREA MON.

WARM SUN AND MON WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR...MID
80S I-10 SOUTHWARD.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT OFFSHORE MON NIGHT.  FRONT
WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA TUE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINE LOW POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

LITTLE CHANGE WED-FRI...WITH ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FL PENINSULA. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME NEXT SAT...BASED ON
GFS AND ECM...AND WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING THEN. HIGH TEMPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MID 80S BY END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY LOWERER IN ISOLATED TSRA AND AREAS WHERE LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS AND 2-4FT SEAS EXPECTED
THRU MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND LOW SEAS TUE/WED. BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
MON NIGHT...WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.

.RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  67  83 /  40  80  20  30
SSI  68  80  69  82 /  30  60  40  30
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  30  60  30  30
SGJ  69  82  69  83 /  30  50  30  30
GNV  68  85  68  85 /  20  60  20  30
OCF  68  85  69  85 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KJAX 181851
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG EXISTING
BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ALONG WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SRN GA
AND FL SEA BREEZES. HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WITH PEAK COVERAGE TOWARD
00Z WITH DECREASE IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW LIKELY TO PIN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO COAST...THUS HRRR PRIMARILY FOCUSING ANY DEVELOPMENT
ON EASTWARD MOVING WEST-COAST SEA BREEZE. WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT...WILL KEEP POP VALUES BELOW 50 THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE WHILE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
MS NORTHEAST TO IN DURING DAY SUNDAY...WITH OUR FORECAST IN WARM
SECTOR. GREATER LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW WILL PIN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO COAST WHILE ADVANCING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EASTWARD. THIS
COMBINED WITH ACTIVITY COMING FROM NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTS HIGH POPS...PERHAPS HIGHEST WRN/NRN AREAS...GENERALLY
50-70 PCT.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADS OVER
FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING NORTH AND
EAST...COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT AND BETTER DYNAMICS
PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS CONSIDERABLY LESS
PRECIP COVERAGE MON COMPARED TO SUN. WILL MAINTAIN 30 POP MON.
DESPITE LESSER COVERAGE...MODEL GUIDNCE SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 2000 J/KG
CAPE AND 150-200 0-3KM SR-HELICITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK
AREA OVER MOST OF OUR AREA MON.

WARM SUN AND MON WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR...MID
80S I-10 SOUTHWARD.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT OFFSHORE MON NIGHT.  FRONT
WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA TUE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINE LOW POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

LITTLE CHANGE WED-FRI...WITH ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FL PENINSULA. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME NEXT SAT...BASED ON
GFS AND ECM...AND WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING THEN. HIGH TEMPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MID 80S BY END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY LOWERER IN ISOLATED TSRA AND AREAS WHERE LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS AND 2-4FT SEAS EXPECTED
THRU MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND LOW SEAS TUE/WED. BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
MON NIGHT...WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.

.RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  67  83 /  40  80  20  30
SSI  68  80  69  82 /  30  60  40  30
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  30  60  30  30
SGJ  69  82  69  83 /  30  50  30  30
GNV  68  85  68  85 /  20  60  20  30
OCF  68  85  69  85 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KJAX 181851
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
251 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG EXISTING
BOUNDARIES...MAINLY ALONG WARM FRONT MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SRN GA
AND FL SEA BREEZES. HRRR SUGGESTS THIS WITH PEAK COVERAGE TOWARD
00Z WITH DECREASE IN COVERAGE THEREAFTER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DECENT LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW LIKELY TO PIN EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO COAST...THUS HRRR PRIMARILY FOCUSING ANY DEVELOPMENT
ON EASTWARD MOVING WEST-COAST SEA BREEZE. WITH LITTLE DYNAMIC
SUPPORT...WILL KEEP POP VALUES BELOW 50 THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
UPPER RIDGING MOVES OFFSHORE WHILE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
PLAINS SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
MS NORTHEAST TO IN DURING DAY SUNDAY...WITH OUR FORECAST IN WARM
SECTOR. GREATER LOW-LEVEL SW FLOW WILL PIN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
TO COAST WHILE ADVANCING WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EASTWARD. THIS
COMBINED WITH ACTIVITY COMING FROM NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTS HIGH POPS...PERHAPS HIGHEST WRN/NRN AREAS...GENERALLY
50-70 PCT.

ACTIVITY DIMINISHES SUNDAY NIGHT AS MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT SPREADS OVER
FORECAST AREA. FOR MONDAY...SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING NORTH AND
EAST...COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT AND BETTER DYNAMICS
PASSING WELL NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...THUS CONSIDERABLY LESS
PRECIP COVERAGE MON COMPARED TO SUN. WILL MAINTAIN 30 POP MON.
DESPITE LESSER COVERAGE...MODEL GUIDNCE SUGGESTS A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH 2000 J/KG
CAPE AND 150-200 0-3KM SR-HELICITY. SPC HAS A MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK
AREA OVER MOST OF OUR AREA MON.

WARM SUN AND MON WITH HIGHS 80 TO 85 NORTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR...MID
80S I-10 SOUTHWARD.

FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT OFFSHORE MON NIGHT.  FRONT
WASHES OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GULF COAST STATES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA TUE.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. WILL
CONTINUE TO CONFINE LOW POPS TO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

LITTLE CHANGE WED-FRI...WITH ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
FL PENINSULA. BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MAY COME NEXT SAT...BASED ON
GFS AND ECM...AND WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING THEN. HIGH TEMPS
GRADUALLY INCREASING TO MID 80S BY END OF WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS...EXCEPT
LOCALLY LOWERER IN ISOLATED TSRA AND AREAS WHERE LATE NIGHT
PATCHY FOG OCCURS.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS AND 2-4FT SEAS EXPECTED
THRU MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT. AFTER FRONT PASSES...WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...RESULTING
IN FAIRLY WEAK WINDS AND LOW SEAS TUE/WED. BEFORE THE FRONT PASSES
MON NIGHT...WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.

.RIP CURRENTS...MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  82  67  83 /  40  80  20  30
SSI  68  80  69  82 /  30  60  40  30
JAX  69  85  69  85 /  30  60  30  30
SGJ  69  82  69  83 /  30  50  30  30
GNV  68  85  68  85 /  20  60  20  30
OCF  68  85  69  85 /  20  50  20  40

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

WOLF/SANDRIK/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KKEY 181844
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
244 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A DEEP LAYER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH SLIDING
DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WE FIND THE KEYS ENGULFED IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS.

.FORECAST...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN EXPECTING WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A
ZONAL JET MAX MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE DIFFLUENT AREA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL VENTILATION FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE JET...A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL AIDE ANY LAND BREEZE OFF CUBA TO CROSS THE STRAITS. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE KEYS AREA WILL RESIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS WEAK RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS TO ENHANCE THE ISLAND CLOUD LINES RESULTING IN A LOW END CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A TROUGH
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE KEYS WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TUESDAY...BREEZES WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WHILE
REMAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
10 KNOTS...BACKING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR A SHORT WHILE LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2007...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 60 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR APRIL 18 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  85  78  85 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON  79  88  78  89 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 181844
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
244 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A DEEP LAYER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH SLIDING
DOWN THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WE FIND THE KEYS ENGULFED IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS.

.FORECAST...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS CYCLE WITH THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF
THE UPPER LOW INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
SUNDAY. UNTIL THEN EXPECTING WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A
ZONAL JET MAX MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE DIFFLUENT AREA AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL VENTILATION FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE JET...A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WILL AIDE ANY LAND BREEZE OFF CUBA TO CROSS THE STRAITS. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THE KEYS AREA WILL RESIDE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS WEAK RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS TO ENHANCE THE ISLAND CLOUD LINES RESULTING IN A LOW END CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A TROUGH
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO THE KEYS WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TUESDAY...BREEZES WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WHILE
REMAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEAR
10 KNOTS...BACKING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST FOR A SHORT WHILE LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2007...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST DIPPED TO 60 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR APRIL 18 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  85  78  85 / 10 10 20 20
MARATHON  79  88  78  89 / 10 10 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KTBW 181830
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES RAPIDLY INLAND. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST
AT ABOUT 15 MPH...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING.
STILL EXPECTING GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE POLK AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING WE WILL SEE WITH
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELDS
SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A 20 TO 25 KNOT STEERING LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING...SO
PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER THAN TODAY. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN TODAY...SO THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
NOT PROGRESS INLAND MORE SLOWLY.

ON TOP OF OUR NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION...WE WILL HAVE A WEAKENING
SHORT-WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS...IN THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS NOW MORE IN
LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS AS FAR AS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF DURING
THE PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION
PRECEDED BY SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MONDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOME DRIER AIR
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO NATURE COAST LIMITING THE RAIN CHANCES SOME
HERE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. MAY STILL SEE VCTS AROUND LAL. OTHERWISE
VFR UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS RETURN.
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND TIMING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH A SERIES
OF TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OR
SEAS IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 181830
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES RAPIDLY INLAND. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST
AT ABOUT 15 MPH...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING.
STILL EXPECTING GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE POLK AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING WE WILL SEE WITH
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELDS
SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A 20 TO 25 KNOT STEERING LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING...SO
PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER THAN TODAY. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN TODAY...SO THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
NOT PROGRESS INLAND MORE SLOWLY.

ON TOP OF OUR NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION...WE WILL HAVE A WEAKENING
SHORT-WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS...IN THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS NOW MORE IN
LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS AS FAR AS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF DURING
THE PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION
PRECEDED BY SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MONDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOME DRIER AIR
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO NATURE COAST LIMITING THE RAIN CHANCES SOME
HERE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. MAY STILL SEE VCTS AROUND LAL. OTHERWISE
VFR UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS RETURN.
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND TIMING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH A SERIES
OF TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OR
SEAS IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 181830
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES RAPIDLY INLAND. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST
AT ABOUT 15 MPH...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING.
STILL EXPECTING GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE POLK AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING WE WILL SEE WITH
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELDS
SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A 20 TO 25 KNOT STEERING LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING...SO
PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER THAN TODAY. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN TODAY...SO THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
NOT PROGRESS INLAND MORE SLOWLY.

ON TOP OF OUR NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION...WE WILL HAVE A WEAKENING
SHORT-WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS...IN THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS NOW MORE IN
LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS AS FAR AS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF DURING
THE PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION
PRECEDED BY SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MONDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOME DRIER AIR
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO NATURE COAST LIMITING THE RAIN CHANCES SOME
HERE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. MAY STILL SEE VCTS AROUND LAL. OTHERWISE
VFR UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS RETURN.
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND TIMING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH A SERIES
OF TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OR
SEAS IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 181830
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION STARTING TO FIRE AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES RAPIDLY INLAND. STORM MOTION TODAY WILL BE TOWARD THE EAST
AT ABOUT 15 MPH...SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLOODING.
STILL EXPECTING GREATEST COVERAGE TO BE POLK AND HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WE WILL BE WATCHING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. OUR UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE CYCLONIC AND
SOUTHWESTERLY...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH HEATING WE WILL SEE WITH
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THE VERTICAL WIND FIELDS
SUGGEST ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST...WITH A 20 TO 25 KNOT STEERING LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE. SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING...SO
PROBABLY A LITTLE LATER THAN TODAY. ALSO...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
FLOW WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN TODAY...SO THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
NOT PROGRESS INLAND MORE SLOWLY.

ON TOP OF OUR NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION...WE WILL HAVE A WEAKENING
SHORT-WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.
WHILE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST...EXPECT
SOME OF THIS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL SUPPORT GUSTY
WINDS...IN THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 MPH...WITH ANY STRONG STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THERE ARE SOME MINOR TIMING ISSUES...BUT OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS NOW MORE IN
LINE WITH THE OTHER MODELS AS FAR AS HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES
IT EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS THE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF DURING
THE PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARD AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION
PRECEDED BY SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MONDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUING DURING MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SOME DRIER AIR
WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO NATURE COAST LIMITING THE RAIN CHANCES SOME
HERE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
LATE IN THE WEEK ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES OVER THE
SOUTHERN INTERIOR.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND DAYTIME
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE PUSHING RAPIDLY INLAND SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT FROM THUNDERSTORMS. MAY STILL SEE VCTS AROUND LAL. OTHERWISE
VFR UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN PATCHY FOG AND PERHAPS LOW CLOUDS RETURN.
CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND TIMING TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IFR IN FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS WITH A SERIES
OF TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE WATERS ON TUESDAY THEN MOVE
INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS OR
SEAS IS EXPECTED...BUT SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TARPON SPRINGS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 181750
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZES OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTY HAVE KICKED IN AT ALL
SITES BUT PBI AND LIKELY TO DO SO IN THE NEXT OUR OR SO. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR AND MAY BE IFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG EAST COAST SITES. BUT GIVEN INCREASING
CAPPING INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE DECIDED TO KEEP
VCTS FOR THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND AS NEEDED. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN
IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT GUIDANCE AND
THE 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS. WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THIS UPDATE. BUT THE POP`S WERE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION TO REFLECT THE CONSENSUS OF THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD EXPECTED AFTER 18Z AND WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE GULF WATERS AND
NAPLES METRO AREA WITH MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A
LINGERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WEST OF COLLIER COUNTY
WHICH MAY HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THE SOUNDING ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40
TO 50 MPH RANGE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
GIVE WAY TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OF 5-10 KTS, STRONGER
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT, FOR EAST COAST SITES AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND SWLY C-BRZ AT APF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG EAST COAST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AND WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE HIT AND MISS NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. IF RE-
ANALYSIS LATER THIS MORNING INDICATE MORE THAN JUST A CHANCE WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ROLL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WERE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION YESTERDAY. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS STILL DEPICT A FEW EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT LOWER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A 80-90 KT UPPER JET
PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS MOSTLY
VARIABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  89  73 /  50  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  20  20
MIAMI            89  75  89  74 /  40  20  10  10
NAPLES           87  74  88  73 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...52/PS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 181750
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
SEA BREEZES OF AROUND 10 KNOTS AND GUSTY HAVE KICKED IN AT ALL
SITES BUT PBI AND LIKELY TO DO SO IN THE NEXT OUR OR SO. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR AND MAY BE IFR CONDITIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG EAST COAST SITES. BUT GIVEN INCREASING
CAPPING INFLUENCE OF APPROACHING MID LEVEL RIDGE DECIDED TO KEEP
VCTS FOR THESE SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND AS NEEDED. ANY
CONVECTION THAT DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN
IN THE EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT GUIDANCE AND
THE 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS. WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THIS UPDATE. BUT THE POP`S WERE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION TO REFLECT THE CONSENSUS OF THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD EXPECTED AFTER 18Z AND WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE GULF WATERS AND
NAPLES METRO AREA WITH MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A
LINGERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WEST OF COLLIER COUNTY
WHICH MAY HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THE SOUNDING ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40
TO 50 MPH RANGE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
GIVE WAY TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OF 5-10 KTS, STRONGER
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT, FOR EAST COAST SITES AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND SWLY C-BRZ AT APF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG EAST COAST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AND WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE HIT AND MISS NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. IF RE-
ANALYSIS LATER THIS MORNING INDICATE MORE THAN JUST A CHANCE WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ROLL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WERE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION YESTERDAY. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS STILL DEPICT A FEW EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT LOWER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A 80-90 KT UPPER JET
PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS MOSTLY
VARIABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  89  73 /  50  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  88  75 /  40  30  20  20
MIAMI            89  75  89  74 /  40  20  10  10
NAPLES           87  74  88  73 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMLB 181524
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WWD FROM THE ATLC INTO SOUTH
FL AND THE STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS WASHED OUT AS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY
DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT OR THERMAL DISCONTINUITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
HAVE BURNED OFF AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION. MORNING RAOBS LOOK A LITTLE DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
THOUGH XMR CAME IN AT 1.73" SOME OF THAT IS DUE TO A SATURATED LAYER
BTWN H70-H50...WHICH IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE CWA...WHILE THE PWAT
UPSTREAM AT TBW HAS DROPPED TO 1.41". FLOW ALOFT IS A LITTLE MORE
ANTICYCLONIC COMPARED TO THU-FRI...WITH A LACK OF AN EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL VORT/PERTURBATION UNLIKE THE PREV TWO DAYS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE WCSB-
DOMINANT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SW TO WSW FLOW AND W-NW MID LEVEL
STEERING WINDS. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED POPS (40 AREAWIDE) LOOK FINE.

A 3FT/9-10SEC PD NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AT CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IMC N/W OF ISM-MCO-DAB HAVE BURNED OFF. SIMILAR TO FRI
EXPECT DIURNAL CU FIELD TO PRODUCE INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR
CIGS FROM NOW THROUGH ONSET OF CONVECTION. SCT SHRA/TA DEVELOPING
OVER WRN FL STARTING 15Z WILL WORK IT`S WAY TO NEAR LEE AROUND 17Z
AND THEN EWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR 18Z-21Z...AND THEN THE EAST COAST
AERODROMES 2THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-4FT RANGE IN A CONTINUED 9-10SEC
NE SWELL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMLB 181524
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WWD FROM THE ATLC INTO SOUTH
FL AND THE STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS WASHED OUT AS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY
DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT OR THERMAL DISCONTINUITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
HAVE BURNED OFF AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION. MORNING RAOBS LOOK A LITTLE DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
THOUGH XMR CAME IN AT 1.73" SOME OF THAT IS DUE TO A SATURATED LAYER
BTWN H70-H50...WHICH IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE CWA...WHILE THE PWAT
UPSTREAM AT TBW HAS DROPPED TO 1.41". FLOW ALOFT IS A LITTLE MORE
ANTICYCLONIC COMPARED TO THU-FRI...WITH A LACK OF AN EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL VORT/PERTURBATION UNLIKE THE PREV TWO DAYS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE WCSB-
DOMINANT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SW TO WSW FLOW AND W-NW MID LEVEL
STEERING WINDS. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED POPS (40 AREAWIDE) LOOK FINE.

A 3FT/9-10SEC PD NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AT CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IMC N/W OF ISM-MCO-DAB HAVE BURNED OFF. SIMILAR TO FRI
EXPECT DIURNAL CU FIELD TO PRODUCE INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR
CIGS FROM NOW THROUGH ONSET OF CONVECTION. SCT SHRA/TA DEVELOPING
OVER WRN FL STARTING 15Z WILL WORK IT`S WAY TO NEAR LEE AROUND 17Z
AND THEN EWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR 18Z-21Z...AND THEN THE EAST COAST
AERODROMES 2THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-4FT RANGE IN A CONTINUED 9-10SEC
NE SWELL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMLB 181524
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WWD FROM THE ATLC INTO SOUTH
FL AND THE STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS WASHED OUT AS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY
DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT OR THERMAL DISCONTINUITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
HAVE BURNED OFF AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION. MORNING RAOBS LOOK A LITTLE DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
THOUGH XMR CAME IN AT 1.73" SOME OF THAT IS DUE TO A SATURATED LAYER
BTWN H70-H50...WHICH IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE CWA...WHILE THE PWAT
UPSTREAM AT TBW HAS DROPPED TO 1.41". FLOW ALOFT IS A LITTLE MORE
ANTICYCLONIC COMPARED TO THU-FRI...WITH A LACK OF AN EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL VORT/PERTURBATION UNLIKE THE PREV TWO DAYS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE WCSB-
DOMINANT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SW TO WSW FLOW AND W-NW MID LEVEL
STEERING WINDS. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED POPS (40 AREAWIDE) LOOK FINE.

A 3FT/9-10SEC PD NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AT CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IMC N/W OF ISM-MCO-DAB HAVE BURNED OFF. SIMILAR TO FRI
EXPECT DIURNAL CU FIELD TO PRODUCE INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR
CIGS FROM NOW THROUGH ONSET OF CONVECTION. SCT SHRA/TA DEVELOPING
OVER WRN FL STARTING 15Z WILL WORK IT`S WAY TO NEAR LEE AROUND 17Z
AND THEN EWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR 18Z-21Z...AND THEN THE EAST COAST
AERODROMES 2THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-4FT RANGE IN A CONTINUED 9-10SEC
NE SWELL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMLB 181524
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WWD FROM THE ATLC INTO SOUTH
FL AND THE STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS WASHED OUT AS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY
DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT OR THERMAL DISCONTINUITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
HAVE BURNED OFF AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION. MORNING RAOBS LOOK A LITTLE DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
THOUGH XMR CAME IN AT 1.73" SOME OF THAT IS DUE TO A SATURATED LAYER
BTWN H70-H50...WHICH IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE CWA...WHILE THE PWAT
UPSTREAM AT TBW HAS DROPPED TO 1.41". FLOW ALOFT IS A LITTLE MORE
ANTICYCLONIC COMPARED TO THU-FRI...WITH A LACK OF AN EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL VORT/PERTURBATION UNLIKE THE PREV TWO DAYS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE WCSB-
DOMINANT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SW TO WSW FLOW AND W-NW MID LEVEL
STEERING WINDS. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED POPS (40 AREAWIDE) LOOK FINE.

A 3FT/9-10SEC PD NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AT CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IMC N/W OF ISM-MCO-DAB HAVE BURNED OFF. SIMILAR TO FRI
EXPECT DIURNAL CU FIELD TO PRODUCE INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR
CIGS FROM NOW THROUGH ONSET OF CONVECTION. SCT SHRA/TA DEVELOPING
OVER WRN FL STARTING 15Z WILL WORK IT`S WAY TO NEAR LEE AROUND 17Z
AND THEN EWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR 18Z-21Z...AND THEN THE EAST COAST
AERODROMES 2THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-4FT RANGE IN A CONTINUED 9-10SEC
NE SWELL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMLB 181423
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WWD FRONT EH ATLC INTO SOUTH
FL AND THE STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS WASHED OUT AS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY
DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT OR THERMAL DISCONTINUITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
HAVE BURNED OFF AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION. MORNING RAOBS LOOK A LITTLE DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
THOUGH XMR CAME IN AT 1.73" SOME OF THAT IS DUE TO A SATURATED LAYER
BTWN H70-H50...WHICH IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE CWA...WHILE THE PWAT
UPSTREAM AT TBW HAS DROPPED TO 1.41". FLOW ALOFT IS A LITTLE MORE
ANTICYCLONIC COMPARED TO THU-FRI...WITH A LACK OF AN EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL VORT/PERTURBATION UNLIKE THE PREV TWO DAYS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE WCSB-
DOMINANT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SW TO WSW FLOW AND W-NW MID LEVEL
STEERING WINDS. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED POPS (40 AREAWIDE) LOOK FINE.

A 3FT/9-10SEC PD NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AT CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IMC N/W OF ISM-MCO-DAB HAVE BURNED OFF. SIMILAR TO FRI
EXPECT DIURNAL CU FIELD TO PRODUCE INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR
CIGS FROM NOW THROUGH ONSET OF CONVECTION. SCT SHRA/TA DEVELOPING
OVER WRN FL STARTING 15Z WILL WORK IT`S WAY TO NEAR LEE AROUND 17Z
AND THEN EWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR 18Z-21Z...AND THEN THE EAST COAST
AERODROMES 2THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-4FT RANGE IN A CONTINUED 9-10SEC
NE SWELL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMLB 181423
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WWD FRONT EH ATLC INTO SOUTH
FL AND THE STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS WASHED OUT AS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY
DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT OR THERMAL DISCONTINUITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
HAVE BURNED OFF AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION. MORNING RAOBS LOOK A LITTLE DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
THOUGH XMR CAME IN AT 1.73" SOME OF THAT IS DUE TO A SATURATED LAYER
BTWN H70-H50...WHICH IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE CWA...WHILE THE PWAT
UPSTREAM AT TBW HAS DROPPED TO 1.41". FLOW ALOFT IS A LITTLE MORE
ANTICYCLONIC COMPARED TO THU-FRI...WITH A LACK OF AN EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL VORT/PERTURBATION UNLIKE THE PREV TWO DAYS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE WCSB-
DOMINANT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SW TO WSW FLOW AND W-NW MID LEVEL
STEERING WINDS. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED POPS (40 AREAWIDE) LOOK FINE.

A 3FT/9-10SEC PD NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AT CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IMC N/W OF ISM-MCO-DAB HAVE BURNED OFF. SIMILAR TO FRI
EXPECT DIURNAL CU FIELD TO PRODUCE INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR
CIGS FROM NOW THROUGH ONSET OF CONVECTION. SCT SHRA/TA DEVELOPING
OVER WRN FL STARTING 15Z WILL WORK IT`S WAY TO NEAR LEE AROUND 17Z
AND THEN EWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR 18Z-21Z...AND THEN THE EAST COAST
AERODROMES 2THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-4FT RANGE IN A CONTINUED 9-10SEC
NE SWELL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMLB 181423
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WWD FRONT EH ATLC INTO SOUTH
FL AND THE STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS WASHED OUT AS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY
DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT OR THERMAL DISCONTINUITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
HAVE BURNED OFF AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION. MORNING RAOBS LOOK A LITTLE DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
THOUGH XMR CAME IN AT 1.73" SOME OF THAT IS DUE TO A SATURATED LAYER
BTWN H70-H50...WHICH IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE CWA...WHILE THE PWAT
UPSTREAM AT TBW HAS DROPPED TO 1.41". FLOW ALOFT IS A LITTLE MORE
ANTICYCLONIC COMPARED TO THU-FRI...WITH A LACK OF AN EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL VORT/PERTURBATION UNLIKE THE PREV TWO DAYS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE WCSB-
DOMINANT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SW TO WSW FLOW AND W-NW MID LEVEL
STEERING WINDS. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED POPS (40 AREAWIDE) LOOK FINE.

A 3FT/9-10SEC PD NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AT CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IMC N/W OF ISM-MCO-DAB HAVE BURNED OFF. SIMILAR TO FRI
EXPECT DIURNAL CU FIELD TO PRODUCE INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR
CIGS FROM NOW THROUGH ONSET OF CONVECTION. SCT SHRA/TA DEVELOPING
OVER WRN FL STARTING 15Z WILL WORK IT`S WAY TO NEAR LEE AROUND 17Z
AND THEN EWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR 18Z-21Z...AND THEN THE EAST COAST
AERODROMES 2THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-4FT RANGE IN A CONTINUED 9-10SEC
NE SWELL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMLB 181423
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WWD FRONT EH ATLC INTO SOUTH
FL AND THE STRAITS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE TILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA HAS WASHED OUT AS THERE IS NO LONGER ANY
DISCERNIBLE WIND SHIFT OR THERMAL DISCONTINUITY. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY MIST/FOG NEAR/NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
HAVE BURNED OFF AS SOUTHWEST FLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION. MORNING RAOBS LOOK A LITTLE DRIER IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
THOUGH XMR CAME IN AT 1.73" SOME OF THAT IS DUE TO A SATURATED LAYER
BTWN H70-H50...WHICH IS RAPIDLY EXITING THE CWA...WHILE THE PWAT
UPSTREAM AT TBW HAS DROPPED TO 1.41". FLOW ALOFT IS A LITTLE MORE
ANTICYCLONIC COMPARED TO THU-FRI...WITH A LACK OF AN EMBEDDED MID
LEVEL VORT/PERTURBATION UNLIKE THE PREV TWO DAYS.

REMAINDER OF TODAY...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE WCSB-
DOMINANT GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL SW TO WSW FLOW AND W-NW MID LEVEL
STEERING WINDS. CURRENTLY ADVERTISED POPS (40 AREAWIDE) LOOK FINE.

A 3FT/9-10SEC PD NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AT CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...IMC N/W OF ISM-MCO-DAB HAVE BURNED OFF. SIMILAR TO FRI
EXPECT DIURNAL CU FIELD TO PRODUCE INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR
CIGS FROM NOW THROUGH ONSET OF CONVECTION. SCT SHRA/TA DEVELOPING
OVER WRN FL STARTING 15Z WILL WORK IT`S WAY TO NEAR LEE AROUND 17Z
AND THEN EWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR 18Z-21Z...AND THEN THE EAST COAST
AERODROMES 2THROUGH 00Z OR SO.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 3-4FT RANGE IN A CONTINUED 9-10SEC
NE SWELL THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
IMPACT WX UPDATES...WEITLICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KTBW 181358
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
958 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE ON THE WAY OUT WITH
BRIGHT SUNSHINE RETURNING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL LIKELY DIM THE SUN FROM
TIME TO TIME NORTH OF TAMPA.

ALSO OF NOTE IS A WEAK LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO AN ARC OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF NAPLES...AND THIS IS INTERSECTING
THE LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP ON
RADAR WHERE THESE FEATURES INTERSECT...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE
HAS BEEN UNDER 10 PERCENT...AND THE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.

FOR THE UPDATE...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A MAINLY DRY
MORNING WITH SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER
1 OR 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALREADY
HAVE MADE ITS WAY INLAND...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH SARASOTA COUNTY.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUICKLY DIMINISHING NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LAL COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SEA BREEZE PUSHES TO THEIR EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AS SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH WELL INLAND AND NOT COME BACK TOWARD THE COAST. OTHERWISE FEW
CHANGES MADE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIND/WAVE ISSUES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 181358
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
958 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE ON THE WAY OUT WITH
BRIGHT SUNSHINE RETURNING. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND WILL LIKELY DIM THE SUN FROM
TIME TO TIME NORTH OF TAMPA.

ALSO OF NOTE IS A WEAK LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY JUST OFF THE COAST
FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH. THERE IS ALSO AN ARC OF CUMULUS CLOUDS
LIFTING NORTHWARD OFFSHORE OF NAPLES...AND THIS IS INTERSECTING
THE LAND BREEZE BOUNDARY. WE HAVE SEEN A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP ON
RADAR WHERE THESE FEATURES INTERSECT...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE
HAS BEEN UNDER 10 PERCENT...AND THE SHOWERS ARE GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE.

FOR THE UPDATE...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A MAINLY DRY
MORNING WITH SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER
1 OR 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. BY THEN...THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALREADY
HAVE MADE ITS WAY INLAND...SO REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAIN FOR
COASTAL SECTIONS FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH SARASOTA COUNTY.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER POLK AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG QUICKLY DIMINISHING NOW AND EXPECT MAINLY VFR
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LAL COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SEA BREEZE PUSHES TO THEIR EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
REMOVED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AS SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH WELL INLAND AND NOT COME BACK TOWARD THE COAST. OTHERWISE FEW
CHANGES MADE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WIND/WAVE ISSUES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181358
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
958 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT GUIDANCE AND
THE 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS. WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THIS UPDATE. BUT THE POP`S WERE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION TO REFLECT THE CONSENSUS OF THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD EXPECTED AFTER 18Z AND WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE GULF WATERS AND
NAPLES METRO AREA WITH MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A
LINGERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WEST OF COLLIER COUNTY
WHICH MAY HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THE SOUNDING ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40
TO 50 MPH RANGE.


60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
GIVE WAY TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OF 5-10 KTS, STRONGER
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT, FOR EAST COAST SITES AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND SWLY C-BRZ AT APF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG EAST COAST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AND WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE HIT AND MISS NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. IF RE-
ANALYSIS LATER THIS MORNING INDICATE MORE THAN JUST A CHANCE WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ROLL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WERE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION YESTERDAY. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS STILL DEPICT A FEW EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT LOWER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A 80-90 KT UPPER JET
PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS MOSTLY
VARIABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  89  73 /  50  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  88  75 /  40  20  20  20
MIAMI            89  75  89  74 /  40  10  10  10
NAPLES           87  74  88  73 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181358
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
958 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT RECENT GUIDANCE AND
THE 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS. WITH GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...THIS WILL FAVOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THIS UPDATE. BUT THE POP`S WERE
INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION TO REFLECT THE CONSENSUS OF THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE MOST ACTIVE
PERIOD EXPECTED AFTER 18Z AND WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE GULF WATERS AND
NAPLES METRO AREA WITH MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING A
LINGERING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WEST OF COLLIER COUNTY
WHICH MAY HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THE SOUNDING ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40
TO 50 MPH RANGE.


60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
GIVE WAY TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OF 5-10 KTS, STRONGER
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT, FOR EAST COAST SITES AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND SWLY C-BRZ AT APF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG EAST COAST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AND WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE HIT AND MISS NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. IF RE-
ANALYSIS LATER THIS MORNING INDICATE MORE THAN JUST A CHANCE WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ROLL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WERE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION YESTERDAY. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS STILL DEPICT A FEW EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT LOWER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A 80-90 KT UPPER JET
PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS MOSTLY
VARIABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  89  73 /  50  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  88  75 /  40  20  20  20
MIAMI            89  75  89  74 /  40  10  10  10
NAPLES           87  74  88  73 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD



000
FXUS62 KTAE 181346
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
946 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE. CURRENTLY
IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID- LEVEL DRYING FOR OUR CWA BEFORE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS AS A LARGE MESOSCALE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN LA APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST (40-60%). POPS FOR THE EASTERN ZONES HAVE
BEEN TRIMMED BACK INTO THE LOWER CHANCE CATEGORY (30%). ENHANCED
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH ALONG WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH MANY
REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY, OTHER RIVERS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [506 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY A LOBE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY, ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE, IS EXPECTED TO
REACH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COINCIDING WITH
THIS WILL BE THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF A 100-120
KNOT UPPER LEVEL (250MB) JET STREAK FROM ALABAMA INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WOULD PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF
POSITIVE DCVA AND THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. IN OTHER WORDS, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR VERTICAL MOTION
BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS EITHER
PERSIST IN A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, OR
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND NORTH FLORIDA.

MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE BETWEEN AROUND 09 UTC AND
15 UTC SUNDAY MORNING. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WHILE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODES MAY BE MORE CELLULAR, GROWTH INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED WITH TIME WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT, POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO
AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULDN`T RAIN
FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS AT A GIVEN LOCATION IT SEEMS QUITE
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF AROUND 40-50 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WE INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN, LARGELY CENTERED AROUND WHETHER OR NOT
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ROOT QUICKLY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OR WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZING LESS INSTABILITY THAN
WHAT MODELS ARE PROJECTING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD, LIKELY EITHER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS COULD LEAD TO A LULL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGIN TO APPROACH. FORCING WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OR FOCUSED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SO RAIN
CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER WITH CONTINUED MODERATE-STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS AN EML PLUME ARRIVES RELATIVELY IN TACT
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN LOWER OVERALL LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS,
SEVERE WORDING WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, IT SHOULD BRING IN A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS THEREBY ALSO LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR
VISIBILITIES AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER WRT FOG. FOR
NOW, IFR VISIBILITIES ARE ADVERTISED. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO
SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND COULD REACH
SCEC LEVELS OF 15-20 KNOTS OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STORMS
ON SUNDAY COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   88  70  81  68  84 /  40  30  80  20  30
PANAMA CITY   83  73  78  72  79 /  50  50  80  20  30
DOTHAN        82  68  80  67  82 /  50  70  80  20  30
ALBANY        83  69  81  67  82 /  40  70  80  20  30
VALDOSTA      87  69  84  67  83 /  30  30  80  20  30
CROSS CITY    86  69  84  68  83 /  30  20  70  20  40
APALACHICOLA  84  73  78  73  80 /  40  30  80  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON/BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 181346
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
946 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE. CURRENTLY
IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID- LEVEL DRYING FOR OUR CWA BEFORE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS AS A LARGE MESOSCALE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHERN LA APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST (40-60%). POPS FOR THE EASTERN ZONES HAVE
BEEN TRIMMED BACK INTO THE LOWER CHANCE CATEGORY (30%). ENHANCED
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH ALONG WITH
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH MANY
REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY, OTHER RIVERS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [506 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY A LOBE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY, ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE, IS EXPECTED TO
REACH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COINCIDING WITH
THIS WILL BE THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF A 100-120
KNOT UPPER LEVEL (250MB) JET STREAK FROM ALABAMA INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WOULD PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF
POSITIVE DCVA AND THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. IN OTHER WORDS, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR VERTICAL MOTION
BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS EITHER
PERSIST IN A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, OR
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND NORTH FLORIDA.

MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE BETWEEN AROUND 09 UTC AND
15 UTC SUNDAY MORNING. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WHILE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODES MAY BE MORE CELLULAR, GROWTH INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED WITH TIME WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT, POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO
AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULDN`T RAIN
FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS AT A GIVEN LOCATION IT SEEMS QUITE
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF AROUND 40-50 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WE INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN, LARGELY CENTERED AROUND WHETHER OR NOT
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ROOT QUICKLY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OR WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZING LESS INSTABILITY THAN
WHAT MODELS ARE PROJECTING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD, LIKELY EITHER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS COULD LEAD TO A LULL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGIN TO APPROACH. FORCING WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OR FOCUSED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SO RAIN
CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER WITH CONTINUED MODERATE-STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS AN EML PLUME ARRIVES RELATIVELY IN TACT
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN LOWER OVERALL LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS,
SEVERE WORDING WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, IT SHOULD BRING IN A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS THEREBY ALSO LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES.


.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR
VISIBILITIES AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER WRT FOG. FOR
NOW, IFR VISIBILITIES ARE ADVERTISED. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO
SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.


.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND COULD REACH
SCEC LEVELS OF 15-20 KNOTS OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STORMS
ON SUNDAY COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   88  70  81  68  84 /  40  30  80  20  30
PANAMA CITY   83  73  78  72  79 /  50  50  80  20  30
DOTHAN        82  68  80  67  82 /  50  70  80  20  30
ALBANY        83  69  81  67  82 /  40  70  80  20  30
VALDOSTA      87  69  84  67  83 /  30  30  80  20  30
CROSS CITY    86  69  84  68  83 /  30  20  70  20  40
APALACHICOLA  84  73  78  73  80 /  40  30  80  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WESTON/BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KJAX 181337
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
937 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDINESS HANGING IN OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL RAPIDLY OCCUR IN THE AREAS WHERE THE SUN
HAS BROKEN THROUGH THIS MORNING. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT WITH SOME SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVERGENCE
LATER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDINESS HANGING IN OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH CEILINGS IN THE 200-1,000 RANGE. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JEKYLL
ISLAND TO OCALA. EXPECT THIS AREA TO FILL IN WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT LATER THIS MORNING.
GENERAL CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 3-5 KFT RANGE WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT
CONVERGENCE OVER INTERIOR NORTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTS IN LIGHT
WINDS... BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING
SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  67  81  65 /  40  40  80  20
SSI  78  68  80  69 /  30  30  60  40
JAX  84  68  85  69 /  50  30  60  30
SGJ  81  69  82  69 /  40  30  60  30
GNV  84  67  85  67 /  50  20  60  20
OCF  86  68  86  68 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/WOLF/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 181337
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
937 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDINESS HANGING IN OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST.
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL RAPIDLY OCCUR IN THE AREAS WHERE THE SUN
HAS BROKEN THROUGH THIS MORNING. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION WILL BREAK OUT WITH SOME SEA BREEZE FRONT CONVERGENCE
LATER TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDINESS HANGING IN OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH CEILINGS IN THE 200-1,000 RANGE. CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY LIFT THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LOW
CLOUDINESS HAS DISSIPATED SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM JEKYLL
ISLAND TO OCALA. EXPECT THIS AREA TO FILL IN WITH CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 3-5 KFT LATER THIS MORNING.
GENERAL CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE 3-5 KFT RANGE WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT WITH SEA BREEZE FRONT
CONVERGENCE OVER INTERIOR NORTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTS IN LIGHT
WINDS... BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING
SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  67  81  65 /  40  40  80  20
SSI  78  68  80  69 /  30  30  60  40
JAX  84  68  85  69 /  50  30  60  30
SGJ  81  69  82  69 /  40  30  60  30
GNV  84  67  85  67 /  50  20  60  20
OCF  86  68  86  68 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SANDRIK/WOLF/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KKEY 181257
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
857 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS INFLUENCINGWINDS
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS...HAS MOVED FURTHER EAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN
STATIONS ALONG HAWK CHANNEL AND AT SMITH SHOAL...5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
LONG KEY LIGHT AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BAY...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE. THE TROUGH WILL NOT REACH THE KEYS
AREA...HOWEVER GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD MAKE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MORE FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR LAND BREEZE OFF CUBA TO REACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS. WILL LOOK AT TIMING AND CONSISTENCY IN THE AFTERNOON
RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED WITH LIGHT TO...AT TIMES...MODERATE WINDS SHIFTING BETWEEN
EAST AND SOUTH...THEN BACK TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LEAVING THE
KEYS AREA WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR CLOUD LINE PRODUCTION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY....AND THE REASON FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTROL THE KEYS AREA WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS
COASTAL WATERS WITH NO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1899...1.37 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
APRIL 18 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 181257
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
857 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS INFLUENCINGWINDS
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS...HAS MOVED FURTHER EAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN
STATIONS ALONG HAWK CHANNEL AND AT SMITH SHOAL...5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
LONG KEY LIGHT AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BAY...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE. THE TROUGH WILL NOT REACH THE KEYS
AREA...HOWEVER GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD MAKE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MORE FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR LAND BREEZE OFF CUBA TO REACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS. WILL LOOK AT TIMING AND CONSISTENCY IN THE AFTERNOON
RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED WITH LIGHT TO...AT TIMES...MODERATE WINDS SHIFTING BETWEEN
EAST AND SOUTH...THEN BACK TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LEAVING THE
KEYS AREA WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR CLOUD LINE PRODUCTION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY....AND THE REASON FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTROL THE KEYS AREA WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS
COASTAL WATERS WITH NO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1899...1.37 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
APRIL 18 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 181257
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
857 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
A FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE. THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE THAT WAS INFLUENCINGWINDS
THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS...HAS MOVED FURTHER EAST. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN
STATIONS ALONG HAWK CHANNEL AND AT SMITH SHOAL...5 TO 10 KNOTS AT
LONG KEY LIGHT AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BAY...AND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE
ISLAND TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE. THE TROUGH WILL NOT REACH THE KEYS
AREA...HOWEVER GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD MAKE FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
MORE FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW FOR LAND BREEZE OFF CUBA TO REACH THE
FLORIDA KEYS. WILL LOOK AT TIMING AND CONSISTENCY IN THE AFTERNOON
RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED WITH LIGHT TO...AT TIMES...MODERATE WINDS SHIFTING BETWEEN
EAST AND SOUTH...THEN BACK TO EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE FRONT DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LEAVING THE
KEYS AREA WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES AND LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR CLOUD LINE PRODUCTION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY....AND THE REASON FOR CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL CONTROL THE KEYS AREA WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE RESULT IS LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS
COASTAL WATERS WITH NO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY STATEMENTS THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1899...1.37 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS IS A LONG-STANDING DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
APRIL 18 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 181208
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
808 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
GIVE WAY TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OF 5-10 KTS, STRONGER
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT, FOR EAST COAST SITES AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND SWLY C-BRZ AT APF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG EAST COAST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AND WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE HIT AND MISS NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. IF RE-
ANALYSIS LATER THIS MORNING INDICATE MORE THAN JUST A CHANCE WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ROLL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WERE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION YESTERDAY. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS STILL DEPICT A FEW EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT LOWER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A 80-90 KT UPPER JET
PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS MOSTLY
VARIABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  89  73 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  88  75 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            89  75  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           87  74  88  73 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181208
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
808 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
GIVE WAY TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OF 5-10 KTS, STRONGER
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT, FOR EAST COAST SITES AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND SWLY C-BRZ AT APF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG EAST COAST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AND WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE HIT AND MISS NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. IF RE-
ANALYSIS LATER THIS MORNING INDICATE MORE THAN JUST A CHANCE WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ROLL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WERE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION YESTERDAY. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS STILL DEPICT A FEW EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT LOWER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A 80-90 KT UPPER JET
PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS MOSTLY
VARIABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  89  73 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  88  75 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            89  75  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           87  74  88  73 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...52/PS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 181208
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
808 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
GIVE WAY TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OF 5-10 KTS, STRONGER
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT, FOR EAST COAST SITES AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND SWLY C-BRZ AT APF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG EAST COAST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AND WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE HIT AND MISS NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. IF RE-
ANALYSIS LATER THIS MORNING INDICATE MORE THAN JUST A CHANCE WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ROLL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WERE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION YESTERDAY. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS STILL DEPICT A FEW EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT LOWER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A 80-90 KT UPPER JET
PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS MOSTLY
VARIABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  89  73 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  88  75 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            89  75  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           87  74  88  73 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181208
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
808 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
GIVE WAY TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES OF 5-10 KTS, STRONGER
ALONG SEA BREEZE FRONT, FOR EAST COAST SITES AROUND NOON OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND SWLY C-BRZ AT APF. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG EAST COAST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BUT BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME AND WILL HANDLE WITH AMENDMENTS AT THIS
TIME GIVEN THE HIT AND MISS NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. IF RE-
ANALYSIS LATER THIS MORNING INDICATE MORE THAN JUST A CHANCE WILL
AMEND AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ROLL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WERE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION YESTERDAY. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS STILL DEPICT A FEW EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT LOWER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A 80-90 KT UPPER JET
PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

AVIATION...
EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS MOSTLY
VARIABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  89  73 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  88  75 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            89  75  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           87  74  88  73 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...52/PS



000
FXUS62 KTAE 180906
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
506 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [REST OF TODAY]...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT OUR EASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL DRYING FOR OUR CWA IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE BEFORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS AS A
LARGE MESOSCALE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LA APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST (40-60%).
POPS FOR THE EASTERN ZONES HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK INTO THE LOWER
CHANCE CATEGORY (30%). ENHANCED UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY A LOBE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY, ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE, IS EXPECTED TO
REACH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COINCIDING WITH
THIS WILL BE THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF A 100-120
KNOT UPPER LEVEL (250MB) JET STREAK FROM ALABAMA INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WOULD PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF
POSITIVE DCVA AND THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. IN OTHER WORDS, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR VERTICAL MOTION
BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS EITHER
PERSIST IN A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, OR
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND NORTH FLORIDA.

MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE BETWEEN AROUND 09 UTC AND
15 UTC SUNDAY MORNING. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WHILE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODES MAY BE MORE CELLULAR, GROWTH INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED WITH TIME WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT, POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO
AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULDN`T RAIN
FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS AT A GIVEN LOCATION IT SEEMS QUITE
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF AROUND 40-50 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WE INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN, LARGELY CENTERED AROUND WHETHER OR NOT
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ROOT QUICKLY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OR WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZING LESS INSTABILITY THAN
WHAT MODELS ARE PROJECTING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD, LIKELY EITHER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS COULD LEAD TO A LULL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGIN TO APPROACH. FORCING WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OR FOCUSED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SO RAIN
CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER WITH CONTINUED MODERATE-STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS AN EML PLUME ARRIVES RELATIVELY IN TACT
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN LOWER OVERALL LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS,
SEVERE WORDING WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, IT SHOULD BRING IN A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS THEREBY ALSO LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR
VISIBILITIES AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER WRT FOG. FOR
NOW, IFR VISIBILITIES ARE ADVERTISED. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO
SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND COULD REACH
SCEC LEVELS OF 15-20 KNOTS OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STORMS
ON SUNDAY COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE RESULTED THE FOLLOWING RIVERS REACHING
ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGES: OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE,
APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER.
HOWEVER, NONE OF THESE RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. FORTUNATELY MANY
OF THE RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WERE
BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAINS FROM THIS WEEK
HAVE BROUGHT MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE-NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
MORE OF THESE RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   88  70  81  68  84 /  30  30  80  20  30
PANAMA CITY   83  73  78  72  79 /  40  50  80  20  30
DOTHAN        82  68  80  67  82 /  40  70  80  20  30
ALBANY        83  69  81  67  82 /  30  70  80  20  30
VALDOSTA      87  69  84  67  83 /  30  30  80  20  30
CROSS CITY    86  69  84  68  83 /  30  20  70  20  40
APALACHICOLA  84  73  78  73  80 /  40  30  80  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 180906
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
506 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM [REST OF TODAY]...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE SHOULD EXIT OUR EASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MID-LEVEL DRYING FOR OUR CWA IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE BEFORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS AS A
LARGE MESOSCALE COMPLEX CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN LA APPROACHES THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST (40-60%).
POPS FOR THE EASTERN ZONES HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK INTO THE LOWER
CHANCE CATEGORY (30%). ENHANCED UPPER RIDGING OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH ALONG WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE CWA.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

BY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY A LOBE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY, ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE, IS EXPECTED TO
REACH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. COINCIDING WITH
THIS WILL BE THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTHENING OF A 100-120
KNOT UPPER LEVEL (250MB) JET STREAK FROM ALABAMA INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WOULD PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF
POSITIVE DCVA AND THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK. IN OTHER WORDS, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR VERTICAL MOTION
BY SUNDAY MORNING, AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS EITHER
PERSIST IN A NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, OR
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ALABAMA, GEORGIA, AND NORTH FLORIDA.

MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE BETWEEN AROUND 09 UTC AND
15 UTC SUNDAY MORNING. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT WHILE INITIAL
CONVECTIVE MODES MAY BE MORE CELLULAR, GROWTH INTO A LINEAR SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED WITH TIME WITH STORMS EVENTUALLY PUSHING EAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE AGREEMENT, POPS WERE BUMPED UP TO
AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH IT SHOULDN`T RAIN
FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS AT A GIVEN LOCATION IT SEEMS QUITE
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE RAIN. MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A FAVORABLE OVERLAP OF AROUND 40-50 KNOTS OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
WE INCLUDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER,
SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN, LARGELY CENTERED AROUND WHETHER OR NOT
THIS INITIAL ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO ROOT QUICKLY IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OR WILL ACTUALLY BE REALIZING LESS INSTABILITY THAN
WHAT MODELS ARE PROJECTING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SHOULD BE
AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO HEAVY RAIN
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD, LIKELY EITHER LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING MCS COULD LEAD TO A LULL IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE A SURFACE COLD FRONT AND
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGIN TO APPROACH. FORCING WILL NOT
BE AS STRONG OR FOCUSED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, SO RAIN
CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO BE
HIGHER WITH CONTINUED MODERATE-STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEPER
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS AN EML PLUME ARRIVES RELATIVELY IN TACT
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN LOWER OVERALL LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS,
SEVERE WORDING WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD NOT MAKE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, IT SHOULD BRING IN A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR MASS THEREBY ALSO LEADING TO SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS. SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES ENTER THE FORECAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH ERODES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR
VISIBILITIES AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER WRT FOG. FOR
NOW, IFR VISIBILITIES ARE ADVERTISED. CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO
SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TODAY BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND COULD REACH
SCEC LEVELS OF 15-20 KNOTS OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. SOME STORMS
ON SUNDAY COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE RESULTED THE FOLLOWING RIVERS REACHING
ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGES: OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE,
APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER.
HOWEVER, NONE OF THESE RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. FORTUNATELY MANY
OF THE RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WERE
BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAINS FROM THIS WEEK
HAVE BROUGHT MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE-NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING
ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
MORE OF THESE RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   88  70  81  68  84 /  30  30  80  20  30
PANAMA CITY   83  73  78  72  79 /  40  50  80  20  30
DOTHAN        82  68  80  67  82 /  40  70  80  20  30
ALBANY        83  69  81  67  82 /  30  70  80  20  30
VALDOSTA      87  69  84  67  83 /  30  30  80  20  30
CROSS CITY    86  69  84  68  83 /  30  20  70  20  40
APALACHICOLA  84  73  78  73  80 /  40  30  80  20  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KKEY 180850
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
450 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LOW STANDS OUT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING
EAST (PER LAST EVENING`S MID AND UPPER LEVEL RAOB
ANALYSES)...DRAGGING A MAXIMUM IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ACROSS
OLD MEXICO. THE LATEST ANALYSES FROM CIMSS REVEAL AN ENERGETIC SPOKE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BAJA...BUCKLING THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF PDVA...ENHANCED BY A FAN OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A RICH TAP OF
WESTERN-GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. A SQUASHED VERSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING A FRACTURED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES IN THE WESTERLIES...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INTENSIFY
ACROSS MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE REGION OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL LOCALIZE AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS REGION
FAVORED FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...FOCUSING OUR ATTENTION ON STEERING FLOW AND MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY...OPENING UP IDEAS FROM CUBA. HOWEVER...WE FEEL
CUBA WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A COLLOCATED ANTICYCLONIC STACK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SUPPORT THIS ASSERTION.
THUS...WE ADVERTISE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A REVERSE CLOUD LINE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE POPS
BEYOND 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SULTRY...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A REVERSE CLOUD LINE APPEARS MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
INHIBITION AND DRY AIR WILL HAVE COMPETING MOTIVES. THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL RE-AMPLIFY
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN...VEERING STEERING FLOWS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  86  78  85  78 / 10 10 10 20
MARATHON  88  79  88  78 / 10 10 10 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 180850
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
450 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LOW STANDS OUT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING
EAST (PER LAST EVENING`S MID AND UPPER LEVEL RAOB
ANALYSES)...DRAGGING A MAXIMUM IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ACROSS
OLD MEXICO. THE LATEST ANALYSES FROM CIMSS REVEAL AN ENERGETIC SPOKE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BAJA...BUCKLING THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF PDVA...ENHANCED BY A FAN OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A RICH TAP OF
WESTERN-GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. A SQUASHED VERSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING A FRACTURED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES IN THE WESTERLIES...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INTENSIFY
ACROSS MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE REGION OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL LOCALIZE AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS REGION
FAVORED FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...FOCUSING OUR ATTENTION ON STEERING FLOW AND MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY...OPENING UP IDEAS FROM CUBA. HOWEVER...WE FEEL
CUBA WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A COLLOCATED ANTICYCLONIC STACK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SUPPORT THIS ASSERTION.
THUS...WE ADVERTISE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A REVERSE CLOUD LINE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE POPS
BEYOND 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SULTRY...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A REVERSE CLOUD LINE APPEARS MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
INHIBITION AND DRY AIR WILL HAVE COMPETING MOTIVES. THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL RE-AMPLIFY
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN...VEERING STEERING FLOWS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  86  78  85  78 / 10 10 10 20
MARATHON  88  79  88  78 / 10 10 10 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 180850
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
450 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LOW STANDS OUT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING
EAST (PER LAST EVENING`S MID AND UPPER LEVEL RAOB
ANALYSES)...DRAGGING A MAXIMUM IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ACROSS
OLD MEXICO. THE LATEST ANALYSES FROM CIMSS REVEAL AN ENERGETIC SPOKE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BAJA...BUCKLING THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF PDVA...ENHANCED BY A FAN OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A RICH TAP OF
WESTERN-GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. A SQUASHED VERSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING A FRACTURED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES IN THE WESTERLIES...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INTENSIFY
ACROSS MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE REGION OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL LOCALIZE AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS REGION
FAVORED FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...FOCUSING OUR ATTENTION ON STEERING FLOW AND MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY...OPENING UP IDEAS FROM CUBA. HOWEVER...WE FEEL
CUBA WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A COLLOCATED ANTICYCLONIC STACK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SUPPORT THIS ASSERTION.
THUS...WE ADVERTISE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A REVERSE CLOUD LINE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE POPS
BEYOND 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SULTRY...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A REVERSE CLOUD LINE APPEARS MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
INHIBITION AND DRY AIR WILL HAVE COMPETING MOTIVES. THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL RE-AMPLIFY
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN...VEERING STEERING FLOWS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  86  78  85  78 / 10 10 10 20
MARATHON  88  79  88  78 / 10 10 10 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 180850
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
450 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LOW STANDS OUT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FEATURE IS DRIFTING
EAST (PER LAST EVENING`S MID AND UPPER LEVEL RAOB
ANALYSES)...DRAGGING A MAXIMUM IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ACROSS
OLD MEXICO. THE LATEST ANALYSES FROM CIMSS REVEAL AN ENERGETIC SPOKE
OF ENERGY ROUNDING THE BAJA...BUCKLING THE SUBTROPICAL JET. THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF PDVA...ENHANCED BY A FAN OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND A RICH TAP OF
WESTERN-GULF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. A SQUASHED VERSION OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS INTACT ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...SUPPORTING A FRACTURED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.


.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL
PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
PROGRESSES IN THE WESTERLIES...THE SUBTROPICAL JET WILL INTENSIFY
ACROSS MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME...THE REGION OF SYNOPTIC FORCING
WILL LOCALIZE AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS REGION
FAVORED FOR CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS...FOCUSING OUR ATTENTION ON STEERING FLOW AND MESOSCALE
INTERACTIONS FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES. STEERING FLOW WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY...OPENING UP IDEAS FROM CUBA. HOWEVER...WE FEEL
CUBA WILL BE SUPPRESSED BY A COLLOCATED ANTICYCLONIC STACK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SUPPORT THIS ASSERTION.
THUS...WE ADVERTISE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A REVERSE CLOUD LINE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE POPS
BEYOND 20 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SULTRY...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A REVERSE CLOUD LINE APPEARS MORE
LIKELY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
INHIBITION AND DRY AIR WILL HAVE COMPETING MOTIVES. THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY. THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL RE-AMPLIFY
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY...GRADUALLY DECREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN...VEERING STEERING FLOWS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

&&

.MARINE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING TUESDAY NIGHT. AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS
TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  86  78  85  78 / 10 10 10 20
MARATHON  88  79  88  78 / 10 10 10 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KJAX 180822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS. THERE ARE AREAS OF  LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. AFTER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN LATE SAT AM WHICH WILL INITIALLY HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AND WARM FRONT
TO SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING WILL WILL TEND TO FADE DURING THE
EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER ALONG THE FL EAST COAST AND SE GA DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW MERGERS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO RACE NE
PUTTING THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH ADDED LIFT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH...AND MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL USE LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS SE GA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING. SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S BEFORE THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
WAVE PUSHES TO THE NE AND HEATING IS LOST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS APPROACH MONDAY. A MID LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINING WITH SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY
AND SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTN. THE FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA
MONDAY EVENING...CROSSING NE FL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE GA
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH RESIDUAL CHANCE POPS FOR NE
FL...DECREASING BY LATER TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME COOLER
AIR BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SE GA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT WILL DECAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
BEFORE STALLING. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR MIDWEEK CLOSEST TO
THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
MIDWEEK. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SW FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING WITH
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE OCNL IFR
CONDITIONS TIL AROUND 14Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCTS AT GNV BEGINNING AT
18Z. HAVE VCSH AT REMAINING TERMINALS ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE CHANGED
TO VCTS AT NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTS IN LIGHT
WINDS... BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  67  81  65 /  40  40  80  20
SSI  78  68  80  69 /  30  30  60  40
JAX  84  68  85  69 /  50  30  60  30
SGJ  81  69  82  69 /  40  30  60  30
GNV  84  67  85  67 /  50  20  60  20
OCF  86  68  86  68 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA



000
FXUS62 KJAX 180822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS. THERE ARE AREAS OF  LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. AFTER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN LATE SAT AM WHICH WILL INITIALLY HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AND WARM FRONT
TO SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING WILL WILL TEND TO FADE DURING THE
EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER ALONG THE FL EAST COAST AND SE GA DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW MERGERS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO RACE NE
PUTTING THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH ADDED LIFT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH...AND MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL USE LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS SE GA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING. SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S BEFORE THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
WAVE PUSHES TO THE NE AND HEATING IS LOST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS APPROACH MONDAY. A MID LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINING WITH SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY
AND SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTN. THE FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA
MONDAY EVENING...CROSSING NE FL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE GA
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH RESIDUAL CHANCE POPS FOR NE
FL...DECREASING BY LATER TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME COOLER
AIR BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SE GA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT WILL DECAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
BEFORE STALLING. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR MIDWEEK CLOSEST TO
THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
MIDWEEK. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SW FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING WITH
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE OCNL IFR
CONDITIONS TIL AROUND 14Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCTS AT GNV BEGINNING AT
18Z. HAVE VCSH AT REMAINING TERMINALS ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE CHANGED
TO VCTS AT NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTS IN LIGHT
WINDS... BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  67  81  65 /  40  40  80  20
SSI  78  68  80  69 /  30  30  60  40
JAX  84  68  85  69 /  50  30  60  30
SGJ  81  69  82  69 /  40  30  60  30
GNV  84  67  85  67 /  50  20  60  20
OCF  86  68  86  68 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA




000
FXUS62 KJAX 180822
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
422 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.NEAR TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS. THERE ARE AREAS OF  LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING. AFTER AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN LATE SAT AM WHICH WILL INITIALLY HELP
SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS SEABREEZES DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND AND WARM FRONT
TO SOUTH BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE EAST. ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT GET GOING WILL WILL TEND TO FADE DURING THE
EVENING...BUT MAY LINGER ALONG THE FL EAST COAST AND SE GA DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW MERGERS AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE AREA.

SUNDAY...A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA AS A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MISS/TENN VALLEY BEGINS TO RACE NE
PUTTING THE AREA IN THE WARM AND MOIST SECTOR AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. WITH ADDED LIFT FROM APPROACHING TROUGH...AND MODEST
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL USE LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS...WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS ACROSS SE GA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AS THEY WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING MAX HEATING. SW FLOW WILL RESULT IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S BEFORE THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS/STORMS.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY EVENING AS A WEAK
WAVE PUSHES TO THE NE AND HEATING IS LOST. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE ITS APPROACH MONDAY. A MID LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COMBINING WITH SMALL SCALE BOUNDARY
AND SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTN. THE FRONT WILL ENTER SE GA
MONDAY EVENING...CROSSING NE FL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SE GA
MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH RESIDUAL CHANCE POPS FOR NE
FL...DECREASING BY LATER TUESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOME COOLER
AIR BEGINNING TO WORK INTO SE GA MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO
THE SOUTH...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

THE COLD FRONT WILL DECAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
BEFORE STALLING. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR MIDWEEK CLOSEST TO
THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL
MIDWEEK. WITH THE FLOW BECOMING SW FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTN PRECIP CHANCES INCREASING WITH
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PRODUCE OCNL IFR
CONDITIONS TIL AROUND 14Z WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY AROUND
16Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND HAVE VCTS AT GNV BEGINNING AT
18Z. HAVE VCSH AT REMAINING TERMINALS ALTHOUGH THESE MAY BE CHANGED
TO VCTS AT NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTS IN LIGHT
WINDS... BECOMING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND FRONT TUESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO A LINGERING SWELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  67  81  65 /  40  40  80  20
SSI  78  68  80  69 /  30  30  60  40
JAX  84  68  85  69 /  50  30  60  30
SGJ  81  69  82  69 /  40  30  60  30
GNV  84  67  85  67 /  50  20  60  20
OCF  86  68  86  68 /  30  20  60  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ZA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 180816
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
416 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE BROAD FLAT
RIDGING...THAT CONTAINED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...
COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. SURFACE - LOW
PRESSURE WAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THROUGH CENTRAL FL TO A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST.

&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MERGES INTO A DEEPENING LOW WAVE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM CANADA
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN EVENING. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF COAST/FL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS RELAXED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC PUSHES IN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES TRACKS EAST TO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL PWAT VALUES
ARE IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE...WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A RATHER ROBUST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND.

AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
GOES WITH IT...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL LOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY...BETWEEN THE FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS SUN MORNING MAINLY IN THE NORTH THAT
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FLOW FOR MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY CYCLONIC OVER
THE STATE AIDING THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR LIFT. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY THAT WILL THEN BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AT FIRST
WAS THINKING MONDAY COULD BE QUITE WET FOR MOST OF US...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE 00Z
ECMWF. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE REGION WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...AS
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE RAIN AROUND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL
POPS. OVERALL THOUGH...MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

FRONT DOES LOOK PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE) TO DRY
OUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL END
UP IN THE BATTLE GROUND WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND DECAYS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST LIKELY LOOKS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL
BE. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AND HENCE THE RAIN CHANCES...BUT DURATION
OF ACTUAL RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO NOT BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT.

THEREAFTER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER SEASONABLE WITH
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES COMING FROM A FEW ISOLATED/SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF OF
ANOTHER FRONT REACHING THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...PROVIDING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS BEYOND
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
PATTERN DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/06Z-19/06Z. GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS...BUT WITH PGD AND LAL ALSO SEEING BR IN THE MVFR TO
LCL IFR RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. BKN VFR CIGS MOVE IN TODAY WITH
VCNTY SHRA OR TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH LAL HAVING THE BEST
ODDS OF A TSRA. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY SHIFT TO SW OR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUN THEN EXITS
TO THE EAST MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FL. THIS FRONT
SAGS IN AND BEGINS TO DECAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE-WED.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE 15KT/3FT OR LESS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS AND
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  74  86  74 /  40  10  30  20
FMY  89  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  89  72  89  71 /  60  20  50  20
SRQ  84  72  84  74 /  20  10  20  20
BKV  87  68  87  69 /  40  10  40  20
SPG  85  75  85  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA



000
FXUS62 KTBW 180816
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
416 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE BROAD FLAT
RIDGING...THAT CONTAINED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...
COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. SURFACE - LOW
PRESSURE WAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THROUGH CENTRAL FL TO A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST.

&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MERGES INTO A DEEPENING LOW WAVE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM CANADA
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN EVENING. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF COAST/FL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS RELAXED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC PUSHES IN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES TRACKS EAST TO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL PWAT VALUES
ARE IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE...WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A RATHER ROBUST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND.

AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
GOES WITH IT...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL LOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY...BETWEEN THE FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS SUN MORNING MAINLY IN THE NORTH THAT
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FLOW FOR MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY CYCLONIC OVER
THE STATE AIDING THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR LIFT. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY THAT WILL THEN BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AT FIRST
WAS THINKING MONDAY COULD BE QUITE WET FOR MOST OF US...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE 00Z
ECMWF. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE REGION WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...AS
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE RAIN AROUND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL
POPS. OVERALL THOUGH...MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

FRONT DOES LOOK PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE) TO DRY
OUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL END
UP IN THE BATTLE GROUND WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND DECAYS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST LIKELY LOOKS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL
BE. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AND HENCE THE RAIN CHANCES...BUT DURATION
OF ACTUAL RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO NOT BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT.

THEREAFTER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER SEASONABLE WITH
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES COMING FROM A FEW ISOLATED/SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF OF
ANOTHER FRONT REACHING THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...PROVIDING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS BEYOND
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
PATTERN DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/06Z-19/06Z. GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS...BUT WITH PGD AND LAL ALSO SEEING BR IN THE MVFR TO
LCL IFR RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. BKN VFR CIGS MOVE IN TODAY WITH
VCNTY SHRA OR TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH LAL HAVING THE BEST
ODDS OF A TSRA. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY SHIFT TO SW OR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUN THEN EXITS
TO THE EAST MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FL. THIS FRONT
SAGS IN AND BEGINS TO DECAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE-WED.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE 15KT/3FT OR LESS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS AND
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  74  86  74 /  40  10  30  20
FMY  89  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  89  72  89  71 /  60  20  50  20
SRQ  84  72  84  74 /  20  10  20  20
BKV  87  68  87  69 /  40  10  40  20
SPG  85  75  85  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA



000
FXUS62 KTBW 180816
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
416 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE BROAD FLAT
RIDGING...THAT CONTAINED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...
COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. SURFACE - LOW
PRESSURE WAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THROUGH CENTRAL FL TO A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST.

&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MERGES INTO A DEEPENING LOW WAVE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM CANADA
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN EVENING. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF COAST/FL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS RELAXED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC PUSHES IN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES TRACKS EAST TO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL PWAT VALUES
ARE IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE...WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A RATHER ROBUST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND.

AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
GOES WITH IT...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL LOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY...BETWEEN THE FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS SUN MORNING MAINLY IN THE NORTH THAT
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FLOW FOR MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY CYCLONIC OVER
THE STATE AIDING THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR LIFT. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY THAT WILL THEN BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AT FIRST
WAS THINKING MONDAY COULD BE QUITE WET FOR MOST OF US...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE 00Z
ECMWF. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE REGION WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...AS
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE RAIN AROUND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL
POPS. OVERALL THOUGH...MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

FRONT DOES LOOK PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE) TO DRY
OUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL END
UP IN THE BATTLE GROUND WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND DECAYS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST LIKELY LOOKS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL
BE. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AND HENCE THE RAIN CHANCES...BUT DURATION
OF ACTUAL RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO NOT BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT.

THEREAFTER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER SEASONABLE WITH
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES COMING FROM A FEW ISOLATED/SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF OF
ANOTHER FRONT REACHING THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...PROVIDING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS BEYOND
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
PATTERN DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/06Z-19/06Z. GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS...BUT WITH PGD AND LAL ALSO SEEING BR IN THE MVFR TO
LCL IFR RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. BKN VFR CIGS MOVE IN TODAY WITH
VCNTY SHRA OR TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH LAL HAVING THE BEST
ODDS OF A TSRA. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY SHIFT TO SW OR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUN THEN EXITS
TO THE EAST MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FL. THIS FRONT
SAGS IN AND BEGINS TO DECAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE-WED.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE 15KT/3FT OR LESS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS AND
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  74  86  74 /  40  10  30  20
FMY  89  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  89  72  89  71 /  60  20  50  20
SRQ  84  72  84  74 /  20  10  20  20
BKV  87  68  87  69 /  40  10  40  20
SPG  85  75  85  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA



000
FXUS62 KTBW 180816
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
416 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE BROAD FLAT
RIDGING...THAT CONTAINED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...
COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. SURFACE - LOW
PRESSURE WAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THROUGH CENTRAL FL TO A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST.

&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MERGES INTO A DEEPENING LOW WAVE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM CANADA
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN EVENING. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF COAST/FL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS RELAXED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC PUSHES IN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES TRACKS EAST TO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL PWAT VALUES
ARE IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE...WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A RATHER ROBUST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND.

AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
GOES WITH IT...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL LOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY...BETWEEN THE FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS SUN MORNING MAINLY IN THE NORTH THAT
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FLOW FOR MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY CYCLONIC OVER
THE STATE AIDING THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR LIFT. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY THAT WILL THEN BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AT FIRST
WAS THINKING MONDAY COULD BE QUITE WET FOR MOST OF US...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE 00Z
ECMWF. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE REGION WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...AS
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE RAIN AROUND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL
POPS. OVERALL THOUGH...MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

FRONT DOES LOOK PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE) TO DRY
OUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL END
UP IN THE BATTLE GROUND WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND DECAYS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST LIKELY LOOKS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL
BE. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AND HENCE THE RAIN CHANCES...BUT DURATION
OF ACTUAL RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO NOT BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT.

THEREAFTER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER SEASONABLE WITH
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES COMING FROM A FEW ISOLATED/SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF OF
ANOTHER FRONT REACHING THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...PROVIDING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS BEYOND
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
PATTERN DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/06Z-19/06Z. GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS...BUT WITH PGD AND LAL ALSO SEEING BR IN THE MVFR TO
LCL IFR RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. BKN VFR CIGS MOVE IN TODAY WITH
VCNTY SHRA OR TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH LAL HAVING THE BEST
ODDS OF A TSRA. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY SHIFT TO SW OR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUN THEN EXITS
TO THE EAST MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FL. THIS FRONT
SAGS IN AND BEGINS TO DECAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE-WED.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE 15KT/3FT OR LESS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS AND
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  74  86  74 /  40  10  30  20
FMY  89  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  89  72  89  71 /  60  20  50  20
SRQ  84  72  84  74 /  20  10  20  20
BKV  87  68  87  69 /  40  10  40  20
SPG  85  75  85  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA



000
FXUS62 KTBW 180816
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
416 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE BROAD FLAT
RIDGING...THAT CONTAINED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...
COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. SURFACE - LOW
PRESSURE WAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THROUGH CENTRAL FL TO A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST.

&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MERGES INTO A DEEPENING LOW WAVE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM CANADA
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN EVENING. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF COAST/FL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS RELAXED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC PUSHES IN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES TRACKS EAST TO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL PWAT VALUES
ARE IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE...WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A RATHER ROBUST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND.

AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
GOES WITH IT...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL LOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY...BETWEEN THE FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS SUN MORNING MAINLY IN THE NORTH THAT
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FLOW FOR MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY CYCLONIC OVER
THE STATE AIDING THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR LIFT. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY THAT WILL THEN BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AT FIRST
WAS THINKING MONDAY COULD BE QUITE WET FOR MOST OF US...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE 00Z
ECMWF. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE REGION WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...AS
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE RAIN AROUND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL
POPS. OVERALL THOUGH...MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

FRONT DOES LOOK PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE) TO DRY
OUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL END
UP IN THE BATTLE GROUND WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND DECAYS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST LIKELY LOOKS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL
BE. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AND HENCE THE RAIN CHANCES...BUT DURATION
OF ACTUAL RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO NOT BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT.

THEREAFTER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER SEASONABLE WITH
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES COMING FROM A FEW ISOLATED/SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF OF
ANOTHER FRONT REACHING THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...PROVIDING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS BEYOND
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
PATTERN DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/06Z-19/06Z. GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS...BUT WITH PGD AND LAL ALSO SEEING BR IN THE MVFR TO
LCL IFR RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. BKN VFR CIGS MOVE IN TODAY WITH
VCNTY SHRA OR TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH LAL HAVING THE BEST
ODDS OF A TSRA. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY SHIFT TO SW OR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUN THEN EXITS
TO THE EAST MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FL. THIS FRONT
SAGS IN AND BEGINS TO DECAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE-WED.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE 15KT/3FT OR LESS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS AND
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  74  86  74 /  40  10  30  20
FMY  89  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  89  72  89  71 /  60  20  50  20
SRQ  84  72  84  74 /  20  10  20  20
BKV  87  68  87  69 /  40  10  40  20
SPG  85  75  85  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA



000
FXUS62 KTBW 180816
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
416 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT- A CLOSED LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WHILE BROAD FLAT
RIDGING...THAT CONTAINED A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...
COVERED MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE CONUS. SURFACE - LOW
PRESSURE WAS IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
SPRAWLED FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STRUNG OUT ALONG
THE GULF COAST AND THROUGH CENTRAL FL TO A LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST.

&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE CLOSED LOW OPENS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MERGES INTO A DEEPENING LOW WAVE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM CANADA
TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SUN EVENING. IN RESPONSE THE UPPER RIDGE
SLIDES OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE GULF COAST/FL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA BY TONIGHT AS RELAXED HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
ATLANTIC PUSHES IN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS
SOUTH OF THE KEYS. THE LOW IN THE ROCKIES TRACKS EAST TO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION...DEVELOPING A COLD FRONT
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE WESTERN GULF.

THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA AND AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEL PWAT VALUES
ARE IN THE 1.7 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE...WILL SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS TODAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE INTERIOR AS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A RATHER ROBUST
SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL INLAND.

AS THE BOUNDARY EXITS THE AREA TONIGHT SOME OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
GOES WITH IT...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION ENDING IN THE EVENING. BUT
MOISTURE WILL RETURN SUN AS THE UPPER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL LOW INCREASES SLIGHTLY...BETWEEN THE FRONT IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN SOUTH OF
THE AREA. EXPECT SHOWERS SUN MORNING MAINLY IN THE NORTH THAT
SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WELL ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING ALOFT DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE FLOW FOR MONDAY WILL BE HIGHLY CYCLONIC OVER
THE STATE AIDING THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR LIFT. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL FOCUS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A BLOSSOMING AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY THAT WILL THEN BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. AT FIRST
WAS THINKING MONDAY COULD BE QUITE WET FOR MOST OF US...BUT HAVE
BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE 00Z
ECMWF. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF
THE REGION WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST...AS
FAIRLY CONFIDENT THERE WILL BE RAIN AROUND GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN HOW WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO JUSTIFY CATEGORICAL
POPS. OVERALL THOUGH...MONDAY DOES NOT LOOK TO BE THE BEST DAY OF
THE WEEK FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WITH THE CHANCE FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS
AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER.

FRONT DOES LOOK PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA...
WITH SOME DRIER AIR ARRIVING (ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE) TO DRY
OUT THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WILL END
UP IN THE BATTLE GROUND WHERE THE FRONT STALLS AND DECAYS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE
FORECAST LIKELY LOOKS MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE ACTUAL WEATHER WILL
BE. SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND AND HENCE THE RAIN CHANCES...BUT DURATION
OF ACTUAL RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS LIKELY TO NOT BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT.

THEREAFTER...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE RATHER SEASONABLE WITH
THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES COMING FROM A FEW ISOLATED/SCT
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF OF
ANOTHER FRONT REACHING THE STATE SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND...PROVIDING
ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS BEYOND
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH THE
PATTERN DEVELOP.

&&

.AVIATION...
18/06Z-19/06Z. GENERALLY VFR TO CONTINUE ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS...BUT WITH PGD AND LAL ALSO SEEING BR IN THE MVFR TO
LCL IFR RANGE BEFORE SUNRISE. BKN VFR CIGS MOVE IN TODAY WITH
VCNTY SHRA OR TSRA FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH LAL HAVING THE BEST
ODDS OF A TSRA. LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING INCREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY SHIFT TO SW OR WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS GRADUALLY VEER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUN THEN EXITS
TO THE EAST MON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FL. THIS FRONT
SAGS IN AND BEGINS TO DECAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS TUE-WED.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE 15KT/3FT OR LESS WITH THE MAIN CONCERN
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WITH HIGHER SEAS AND
LIGHTNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  74  86  74 /  40  10  30  20
FMY  89  73  89  73 /  20  10  20  20
GIF  89  72  89  71 /  60  20  50  20
SRQ  84  72  84  74 /  20  10  20  20
BKV  87  68  87  69 /  40  10  40  20
SPG  85  75  85  75 /  30  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/RUDE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
334 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ROLL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WERE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION YESTERDAY. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS STILL DEPICT A FEW EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT LOWER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A 80-90 KT UPPER JET
PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS MOSTLY
VARIABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  89  73 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  88  75 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            89  75  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           87  74  88  73 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 180734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
334 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ROLL
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS WERE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON CONVECTION YESTERDAY. BELIEVE COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TODAY AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH WEAK UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
FAIRLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
KEEPING ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING HOLDS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

RIDGING BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS AN H5 SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MODELS STILL DEPICT A FEW EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
IMPULSES STREAMING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ENHANCING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 1000 FT LOWER THAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A 80-90 KT UPPER JET
PUSHING ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION ON MONDAY. THESE FACTORS
ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE BEST
CHANCES NORTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS STILL A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING...WHILE THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL THEN PUSH EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ALLOWING THE FRONT TO EDGE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS
THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA
DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.9 INCHES WHICH IS NEARLY +2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS.

UPPER RIDGING IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MONDAY WITH SEAS OF 2
TO 4 FEET. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NEAR THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS MOSTLY
VARIABLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  89  73 /  40  40  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  88  75 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            89  75  89  74 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           87  74  88  73 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMLB 180713
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...THE LOW LVL (H9-H8) RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FL KEYS
TODAY WITH WNW-NW FLOW TO 25-30 KNOTS IN THE STEERING LAYER FROM (H7-
H5) THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS WILL PULL FARTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SLOW ONSHORE MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SW-W FLOW IN THE H9 LAYER WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST BREEZE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
LATE IN THE DAY. 00Z GFS INDICATES SOME DRYING IN THE H7-H3 LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INFLUENCE OF THE FLAT MID LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE GULF. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 40 PCT MOST OF E CENTRAL FL BUT A
BIT LOWER ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW IN MARTIN COUNTY WITH
LOW LVL FLOW OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SRN COASTAL AREAS AND THE
INTERIOR. A NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AT E CENTRAL FL BEACHES.

TONIGHT...EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE EVENING. WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS AROUND 30 PCT ALONG THE COAST TO 20 PCT FOR THE INTERIOR. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 180713
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...THE LOW LVL (H9-H8) RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FL KEYS
TODAY WITH WNW-NW FLOW TO 25-30 KNOTS IN THE STEERING LAYER FROM (H7-
H5) THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS WILL PULL FARTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SLOW ONSHORE MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SW-W FLOW IN THE H9 LAYER WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST BREEZE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
LATE IN THE DAY. 00Z GFS INDICATES SOME DRYING IN THE H7-H3 LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INFLUENCE OF THE FLAT MID LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE GULF. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 40 PCT MOST OF E CENTRAL FL BUT A
BIT LOWER ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW IN MARTIN COUNTY WITH
LOW LVL FLOW OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SRN COASTAL AREAS AND THE
INTERIOR. A NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AT E CENTRAL FL BEACHES.

TONIGHT...EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE EVENING. WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS AROUND 30 PCT ALONG THE COAST TO 20 PCT FOR THE INTERIOR. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WIMMER



000
FXUS62 KMLB 180713
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...THE LOW LVL (H9-H8) RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FL KEYS
TODAY WITH WNW-NW FLOW TO 25-30 KNOTS IN THE STEERING LAYER FROM (H7-
H5) THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS WILL PULL FARTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SLOW ONSHORE MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SW-W FLOW IN THE H9 LAYER WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST BREEZE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
LATE IN THE DAY. 00Z GFS INDICATES SOME DRYING IN THE H7-H3 LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INFLUENCE OF THE FLAT MID LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE GULF. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 40 PCT MOST OF E CENTRAL FL BUT A
BIT LOWER ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW IN MARTIN COUNTY WITH
LOW LVL FLOW OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SRN COASTAL AREAS AND THE
INTERIOR. A NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AT E CENTRAL FL BEACHES.

TONIGHT...EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE EVENING. WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS AROUND 30 PCT ALONG THE COAST TO 20 PCT FOR THE INTERIOR. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 180713
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...THE LOW LVL (H9-H8) RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FL KEYS
TODAY WITH WNW-NW FLOW TO 25-30 KNOTS IN THE STEERING LAYER FROM (H7-
H5) THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS WILL PULL FARTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SLOW ONSHORE MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SW-W FLOW IN THE H9 LAYER WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST BREEZE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
LATE IN THE DAY. 00Z GFS INDICATES SOME DRYING IN THE H7-H3 LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INFLUENCE OF THE FLAT MID LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE GULF. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 40 PCT MOST OF E CENTRAL FL BUT A
BIT LOWER ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW IN MARTIN COUNTY WITH
LOW LVL FLOW OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SRN COASTAL AREAS AND THE
INTERIOR. A NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AT E CENTRAL FL BEACHES.

TONIGHT...EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE EVENING. WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS AROUND 30 PCT ALONG THE COAST TO 20 PCT FOR THE INTERIOR. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 180713
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...THE LOW LVL (H9-H8) RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FL KEYS
TODAY WITH WNW-NW FLOW TO 25-30 KNOTS IN THE STEERING LAYER FROM (H7-
H5) THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS WILL PULL FARTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SLOW ONSHORE MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SW-W FLOW IN THE H9 LAYER WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST BREEZE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
LATE IN THE DAY. 00Z GFS INDICATES SOME DRYING IN THE H7-H3 LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INFLUENCE OF THE FLAT MID LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE GULF. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 40 PCT MOST OF E CENTRAL FL BUT A
BIT LOWER ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW IN MARTIN COUNTY WITH
LOW LVL FLOW OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SRN COASTAL AREAS AND THE
INTERIOR. A NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AT E CENTRAL FL BEACHES.

TONIGHT...EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE EVENING. WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS AROUND 30 PCT ALONG THE COAST TO 20 PCT FOR THE INTERIOR. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 180713
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...THE LOW LVL (H9-H8) RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FL KEYS
TODAY WITH WNW-NW FLOW TO 25-30 KNOTS IN THE STEERING LAYER FROM (H7-
H5) THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC... WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS WILL PULL FARTHER OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SLOW ONSHORE MOVING EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. SW-W FLOW IN THE H9 LAYER WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST BREEZE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
LATE IN THE DAY. 00Z GFS INDICATES SOME DRYING IN THE H7-H3 LAYER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME INFLUENCE OF THE FLAT MID LVL RIDGE ACROSS
THE SE GULF. WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 40 PCT MOST OF E CENTRAL FL BUT A
BIT LOWER ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW IN MARTIN COUNTY WITH
LOW LVL FLOW OFF THE LAKE. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SRN COASTAL AREAS AND THE
INTERIOR. A NE SWELL WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
AT E CENTRAL FL BEACHES.

TONIGHT...EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL PUSH
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE EVENING. WILL FAVOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS AROUND 30 PCT ALONG THE COAST TO 20 PCT FOR THE INTERIOR. LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

SUN-TUE...LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION
LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO ONTARIO CANADA CANADA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THEN ORIENTS TO THE HORIZONTAL AND SLOWS DOWN AS THE
FRONT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. TIME HEIGHT CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES
CROSSING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LIKELY TO CHANCE...60 TO 50..
PRECIPITATION POSSIBILITIES ON SUN. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30 TO 50
PERCENT MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES DOWN THE PENINSULA AS
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN QUITE HIGH AND MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUE TO
CROSS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TUE NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE SOUTHERN
AREAS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE WARM SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
80S. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOWS FROM AROUND 70S TO UPPER 60S ARE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE THEIR CLIMO VALUES OF MID 60.

WED-FRI...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WED TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST FRI AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SC/GA RIDGING BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TRACKS EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
EASTERLY FLOW WED BECOMES SOUTHERLY THU AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SURFACE HIGH KEEPS MOVING EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BEGINS TO
SHEAR OUT AGAIN. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW HELPS TO FEED MORE MOISTURE INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LVL CIGS ACROSS NRN AREAS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP
MITIGATE LOW VSBY FOG RISK BUT COULD SEE SOME MVFR FOG BTWN 08Z-12Z.
CHC FOR TSRA ACROSS INTERIOR TERMINALS BY MID AFTN AND COASTAL
TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. WITH RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40 PCT HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW. VFR CIGS THIS EVENING
OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT CSTL SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...LONGER PERIOD NE SWELLS EXPECTED TO 3 TO 4
FT RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT TO 2-3 FT. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENINGS HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS
THAT MOVE OFFSHORE.

SUN-WED...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN BECOME
SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT AND MON THEN WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND
15 TO 20 KNOTS OFFSHORE MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WEST FOR FAST APPROACHING STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE. THE FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT TUE. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH EARLY THEN NORTHEAST AND EAST WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND TRACKS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  68  85  68 /  40  30  60  30
MCO  89  70  89  69 /  40  20  70  20
MLB  86  70  88  69 /  40  30  60  30
VRB  86  68  88  69 /  40  30  50  30
LEE  87  70  85  70 /  40  20  60  20
SFB  88  70  87  70 /  40  20  70  20
ORL  89  71  88  70 /  40  20  70  20
FPR  87  69  89  68 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180612
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
212 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR KFXE BUT MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL SHOULD BE GONE BY 02Z.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PLACED
VCTS FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AS STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THOSE AREAS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V OVERNIGHT BECMG SSE
ALONG THE EAST COAST AFT 18Z AND SSW AT KAPF AFT 15Z AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ALONG BOTH COASTS.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

.CONTINUED VERY WARM DAYS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS...

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL MID/UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, WITH
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER DESCRIBED BELOW.

SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE QUASI-RAINY-SEASON DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE
OVER THE WEAK RIDGE IN THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING, PREDOMINANT STEERING FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTERIOR AND EAST,
LEAVING THE GULF COAST MAINLY DRY. A DECENT-STRENGTH MID/UPPER
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH POSSIBLE
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
AGAIN, FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
INTERIOR TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE/PALM BEACHES, WITH LOWER POPS GULF
COAST AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TOASTY
THIS WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE, WITH LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE INTERIOR, NEAR 90 OVER THE METRO SOUTHEAST AREAS AND
MID/UPPER 80S GULF COAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
DEEP LAYERED MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO
BE PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH FLOW OVER FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ZONAL, LOWER HEIGHTS/COLDER AIR ALOFT ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH AND LINGER NEAR SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL STILL BE
MOSTLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN BUT COULD LINGER EVEN INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS DUE TO STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAM DIPPING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST/NORTH FLORIDA. HIGHEST POPS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA/PALM
BEACHES, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NEXT WEEK MAY END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT IT`S BEEN THIS WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY DUE MOSTLY TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NEAR KPBI.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AND MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IF STORMS GO OVER THE TAF
SITE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. KEPT VCSH AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
GET NEAR KFLL AND KOPF AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AT KAPF...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 84/AK

MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A LITTLE
INCREASE IN THE SOUTH WIND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  72 /  50  30  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  75  89  75 /  40  30  30  20
MIAMI            90  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  20
NAPLES           87  73  87  71 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180612
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
212 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR KFXE BUT MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL SHOULD BE GONE BY 02Z.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PLACED
VCTS FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AS STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THOSE AREAS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V OVERNIGHT BECMG SSE
ALONG THE EAST COAST AFT 18Z AND SSW AT KAPF AFT 15Z AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ALONG BOTH COASTS.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

.CONTINUED VERY WARM DAYS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS...

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL MID/UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, WITH
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER DESCRIBED BELOW.

SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE QUASI-RAINY-SEASON DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE
OVER THE WEAK RIDGE IN THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING, PREDOMINANT STEERING FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTERIOR AND EAST,
LEAVING THE GULF COAST MAINLY DRY. A DECENT-STRENGTH MID/UPPER
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH POSSIBLE
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
AGAIN, FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
INTERIOR TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE/PALM BEACHES, WITH LOWER POPS GULF
COAST AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TOASTY
THIS WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE, WITH LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE INTERIOR, NEAR 90 OVER THE METRO SOUTHEAST AREAS AND
MID/UPPER 80S GULF COAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
DEEP LAYERED MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO
BE PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH FLOW OVER FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ZONAL, LOWER HEIGHTS/COLDER AIR ALOFT ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH AND LINGER NEAR SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL STILL BE
MOSTLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN BUT COULD LINGER EVEN INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS DUE TO STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAM DIPPING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST/NORTH FLORIDA. HIGHEST POPS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA/PALM
BEACHES, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NEXT WEEK MAY END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT IT`S BEEN THIS WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY DUE MOSTLY TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NEAR KPBI.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AND MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IF STORMS GO OVER THE TAF
SITE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. KEPT VCSH AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
GET NEAR KFLL AND KOPF AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AT KAPF...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 84/AK

MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A LITTLE
INCREASE IN THE SOUTH WIND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  72 /  50  30  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  75  89  75 /  40  30  30  20
MIAMI            90  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  20
NAPLES           87  73  87  71 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 180612
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
212 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR KFXE BUT MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL SHOULD BE GONE BY 02Z.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PLACED
VCTS FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AS STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THOSE AREAS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V OVERNIGHT BECMG SSE
ALONG THE EAST COAST AFT 18Z AND SSW AT KAPF AFT 15Z AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ALONG BOTH COASTS.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

.CONTINUED VERY WARM DAYS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS...

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL MID/UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, WITH
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER DESCRIBED BELOW.

SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE QUASI-RAINY-SEASON DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE
OVER THE WEAK RIDGE IN THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING, PREDOMINANT STEERING FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTERIOR AND EAST,
LEAVING THE GULF COAST MAINLY DRY. A DECENT-STRENGTH MID/UPPER
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH POSSIBLE
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
AGAIN, FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
INTERIOR TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE/PALM BEACHES, WITH LOWER POPS GULF
COAST AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TOASTY
THIS WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE, WITH LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE INTERIOR, NEAR 90 OVER THE METRO SOUTHEAST AREAS AND
MID/UPPER 80S GULF COAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
DEEP LAYERED MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO
BE PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH FLOW OVER FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ZONAL, LOWER HEIGHTS/COLDER AIR ALOFT ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH AND LINGER NEAR SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL STILL BE
MOSTLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN BUT COULD LINGER EVEN INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS DUE TO STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAM DIPPING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST/NORTH FLORIDA. HIGHEST POPS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA/PALM
BEACHES, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NEXT WEEK MAY END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT IT`S BEEN THIS WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY DUE MOSTLY TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NEAR KPBI.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AND MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IF STORMS GO OVER THE TAF
SITE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. KEPT VCSH AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
GET NEAR KFLL AND KOPF AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AT KAPF...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 84/AK

MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A LITTLE
INCREASE IN THE SOUTH WIND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  72 /  50  30  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  75  89  75 /  40  30  30  20
MIAMI            90  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  20
NAPLES           87  73  87  71 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180612
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
212 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPECTING BETTER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO FRIDAY, AS A
DISTURBANCE DROPS FROM THE PANHANDLE TO THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST
BY EVENING. NO SUCH UPPER FORCING WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY. SEA
BREEZE EXPECTED ON BOTH COASTS, ALTHOUGH STRONGER SW TO W GULF
BREEZE WILL INTERACT WITH SSE ATLANTIC BREEZE CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST. THEREFORE, VCTS ALREADY IN TAFS WAS LEFT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

AVIATION...
STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR KFXE BUT MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL SHOULD BE GONE BY 02Z.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PLACED
VCTS FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AS STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THOSE AREAS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V OVERNIGHT BECMG SSE
ALONG THE EAST COAST AFT 18Z AND SSW AT KAPF AFT 15Z AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ALONG BOTH COASTS.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

.CONTINUED VERY WARM DAYS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS...

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL MID/UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, WITH
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER DESCRIBED BELOW.

SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE QUASI-RAINY-SEASON DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE
OVER THE WEAK RIDGE IN THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING, PREDOMINANT STEERING FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTERIOR AND EAST,
LEAVING THE GULF COAST MAINLY DRY. A DECENT-STRENGTH MID/UPPER
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH POSSIBLE
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
AGAIN, FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
INTERIOR TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE/PALM BEACHES, WITH LOWER POPS GULF
COAST AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TOASTY
THIS WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE, WITH LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE INTERIOR, NEAR 90 OVER THE METRO SOUTHEAST AREAS AND
MID/UPPER 80S GULF COAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
DEEP LAYERED MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO
BE PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH FLOW OVER FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ZONAL, LOWER HEIGHTS/COLDER AIR ALOFT ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH AND LINGER NEAR SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL STILL BE
MOSTLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN BUT COULD LINGER EVEN INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS DUE TO STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAM DIPPING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST/NORTH FLORIDA. HIGHEST POPS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA/PALM
BEACHES, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NEXT WEEK MAY END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT IT`S BEEN THIS WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY DUE MOSTLY TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NEAR KPBI.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AND MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IF STORMS GO OVER THE TAF
SITE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. KEPT VCSH AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
GET NEAR KFLL AND KOPF AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AT KAPF...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 84/AK

MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A LITTLE
INCREASE IN THE SOUTH WIND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  89  72 /  50  30  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  75  89  75 /  40  30  30  20
MIAMI            90  75  89  75 /  30  30  30  20
NAPLES           87  73  87  71 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMLB 180145
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...WHILE THERE WAS SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAVE PROVEN MORE INFLUENTIAL. COVERAGE HAS BEEN
WIDELY SCATTERED...PRIMARILY ACROSS
ORANGE...SEMINOLE...OSCEOLA...AND BREVARD WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY.

STEERING FLOW HAS ALREADY TAKEN A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY INTO THE
ATLANTIC...AND THE REMAINING STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAY ALSO MOVE OVER MARTIN COUNTY...THOUGH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. ADDED SOME PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND OSCEOLA COUNTY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND RAINFALL.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

SAT...WEAK SFC LOW OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT ENE AND OPEN UP
INTO A WEAK TROUGH....ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD WEST TWD
SOUTH FL AND THE STRAITS. THIS RESULTS IN LIGHT-MDT SW FLOW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA....WHILE THE MID/UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL/W-E. THIS
MEAN PWATS REMAIN NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW 1.75"...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TS. EXPECT WCSB TO BE DOMINANT FEATURE...
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING W-E INTO AND ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ECSB LIKELY TO BE LATER IN FORMING AND MOVE
VERY SLOWLY WWD...REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL COS UNTIL A LATE DAY
COLLISION. MAXES EXPECTED TO REACH THE U80S...CLOSER TO 85F OVER THE
FAR NORTH AND NEAR 90F IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION GENERALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF ORLANDO
AREA SITES AND AFFECTING COAST FROM KEVB TO KFPR THROUGH 18/04Z.

NE WIND PUSH BEHIND BOUNDARY BROUGHT SOME MVFR STRATUS BACK INTO
VOLUSIA/N BREVARD COAST WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH THE COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME LOCAL DISRUPTION BY CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MVFR FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED AT MANY SITES
THROUGH 12Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED SAT AFTN WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AND FOCUSING TOWARDS EAST COAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...WEAK LOW OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS MOVED
NE/WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT H24-36. ATLC RIDGE BUILDING TWD SOUTH FL IN
ITS WAKE WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO BECOME SRLY AND THEN SWRLY AROUND
10-12KT. COMBINED SEAS 2-3FT NEAR SHORE/3-4FT OFFSHORE IN A SMALL 8-
9S SWELL. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SCT OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS IN
THE AFT AND EVE PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 180145
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...WHILE THERE WAS SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAVE PROVEN MORE INFLUENTIAL. COVERAGE HAS BEEN
WIDELY SCATTERED...PRIMARILY ACROSS
ORANGE...SEMINOLE...OSCEOLA...AND BREVARD WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY.

STEERING FLOW HAS ALREADY TAKEN A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY INTO THE
ATLANTIC...AND THE REMAINING STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAY ALSO MOVE OVER MARTIN COUNTY...THOUGH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. ADDED SOME PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND OSCEOLA COUNTY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND RAINFALL.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

SAT...WEAK SFC LOW OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT ENE AND OPEN UP
INTO A WEAK TROUGH....ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD WEST TWD
SOUTH FL AND THE STRAITS. THIS RESULTS IN LIGHT-MDT SW FLOW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA....WHILE THE MID/UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL/W-E. THIS
MEAN PWATS REMAIN NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW 1.75"...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TS. EXPECT WCSB TO BE DOMINANT FEATURE...
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING W-E INTO AND ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ECSB LIKELY TO BE LATER IN FORMING AND MOVE
VERY SLOWLY WWD...REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL COS UNTIL A LATE DAY
COLLISION. MAXES EXPECTED TO REACH THE U80S...CLOSER TO 85F OVER THE
FAR NORTH AND NEAR 90F IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION GENERALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF ORLANDO
AREA SITES AND AFFECTING COAST FROM KEVB TO KFPR THROUGH 18/04Z.

NE WIND PUSH BEHIND BOUNDARY BROUGHT SOME MVFR STRATUS BACK INTO
VOLUSIA/N BREVARD COAST WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH THE COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME LOCAL DISRUPTION BY CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MVFR FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED AT MANY SITES
THROUGH 12Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED SAT AFTN WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AND FOCUSING TOWARDS EAST COAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...WEAK LOW OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS MOVED
NE/WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT H24-36. ATLC RIDGE BUILDING TWD SOUTH FL IN
ITS WAKE WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO BECOME SRLY AND THEN SWRLY AROUND
10-12KT. COMBINED SEAS 2-3FT NEAR SHORE/3-4FT OFFSHORE IN A SMALL 8-
9S SWELL. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SCT OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS IN
THE AFT AND EVE PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/PENDERGRAST



000
FXUS62 KMLB 180145
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...WHILE THERE WAS SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
RELATIVELY STABLE LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW BEHIND THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY HAVE PROVEN MORE INFLUENTIAL. COVERAGE HAS BEEN
WIDELY SCATTERED...PRIMARILY ACROSS
ORANGE...SEMINOLE...OSCEOLA...AND BREVARD WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY.

STEERING FLOW HAS ALREADY TAKEN A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY INTO THE
ATLANTIC...AND THE REMAINING STORMS WILL ALSO MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COASTS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. A FEW STORMS OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAY ALSO MOVE OVER MARTIN COUNTY...THOUGH THIS
ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY LOSE ITS PUNCH AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE LAKE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F. ADDED SOME PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND OSCEOLA COUNTY WITH THE
COMBINATION OF THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND RAINFALL.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

SAT...WEAK SFC LOW OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS WILL DRIFT ENE AND OPEN UP
INTO A WEAK TROUGH....ALLOWING THE ATLC RIDGE TO BUILD WEST TWD
SOUTH FL AND THE STRAITS. THIS RESULTS IN LIGHT-MDT SW FLOW ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA....WHILE THE MID/UPPER FLOW REMAINS ZONAL/W-E. THIS
MEAN PWATS REMAIN NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW 1.75"...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
SCATTERED DIURNAL SHRA/TS. EXPECT WCSB TO BE DOMINANT FEATURE...
WITH ACTIVITY MOVING W-E INTO AND ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ECSB LIKELY TO BE LATER IN FORMING AND MOVE
VERY SLOWLY WWD...REMAINING OVER THE COASTAL COS UNTIL A LATE DAY
COLLISION. MAXES EXPECTED TO REACH THE U80S...CLOSER TO 85F OVER THE
FAR NORTH AND NEAR 90F IN A FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...ONGOING CONVECTION GENERALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF ORLANDO
AREA SITES AND AFFECTING COAST FROM KEVB TO KFPR THROUGH 18/04Z.

NE WIND PUSH BEHIND BOUNDARY BROUGHT SOME MVFR STRATUS BACK INTO
VOLUSIA/N BREVARD COAST WHICH WILL FLIRT WITH THE COAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SOME LOCAL DISRUPTION BY CONVECTION THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE...PATCHY MVFR FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED AT MANY SITES
THROUGH 12Z.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED SAT AFTN WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST AND FOCUSING TOWARDS EAST COAST IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...WEAK LOW OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS MOVED
NE/WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT H24-36. ATLC RIDGE BUILDING TWD SOUTH FL IN
ITS WAKE WILL CAUSE SFC WINDS TO BECOME SRLY AND THEN SWRLY AROUND
10-12KT. COMBINED SEAS 2-3FT NEAR SHORE/3-4FT OFFSHORE IN A SMALL 8-
9S SWELL. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR SCT OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS IN
THE AFT AND EVE PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/PENDERGRAST




000
FXUS62 KJAX 180127
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...WARM/WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

.UPDATE... NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER ALABAMA HAS
TRIGGERED A LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WHICH IS HEADED TOWARDS
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...IT MAY PUSH A FEW ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA THAT MAY SKIRT THE JAX METRO AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SE GA.
MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATE
TONIGHT STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH VSBYS
POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOG FOLLOWING THE RAINFALL ACROSS SE GA...BUT OVERALL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND ENOUGH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED
TO KEEP MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DENSE FOG FORMING. THE TIMING OF THIS
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY IS
CAUSING ALL SORTS OF PROBLEMS WITH THE HI-RES MODELS TRYING TO
RESOLVE SATURDAY`S CONVECTION AND BELIEVE THEY ARE ALL WAY TOO HIGH
WITH MORNING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE GA/NE FL AND BELIEVE SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE (DOWNWARD MOTION) LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
MAKE FOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MORNING (20-30%) BECOMING
HIGHER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WARMER WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 06Z AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT SSI BETWEEN 06Z-10Z...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LIFR
CIGS OF 200-400 FT ARE EXPECTED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS FROM
AROUND 10Z THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AT VQQ. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 14Z...WITH VFR
EXPECTED AROUND 17Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AT SSI...CRG...AND SGJ TOWARDS 17Z...WITH ONSHORE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 17Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WAS TOO LOW FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY UNTIL
LOCAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES AT 10-15 KNOTS SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW
SWELLS IMPACTING THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  82  67  82 /  60  30  30  70
SSI  66  78  69  79 /  50  20  30  60
JAX  66  85  68  84 /  20  40  30  60
SGJ  67  84  69  80 /  10  40  30  50
GNV  66  87  67  84 /  20  50  30  60
OCF  67  88  68  86 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 180127
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...WARM/WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

.UPDATE... NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER ALABAMA HAS
TRIGGERED A LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WHICH IS HEADED TOWARDS
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...IT MAY PUSH A FEW ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA THAT MAY SKIRT THE JAX METRO AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SE GA.
MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATE
TONIGHT STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH VSBYS
POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOG FOLLOWING THE RAINFALL ACROSS SE GA...BUT OVERALL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND ENOUGH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED
TO KEEP MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DENSE FOG FORMING. THE TIMING OF THIS
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY IS
CAUSING ALL SORTS OF PROBLEMS WITH THE HI-RES MODELS TRYING TO
RESOLVE SATURDAY`S CONVECTION AND BELIEVE THEY ARE ALL WAY TOO HIGH
WITH MORNING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE GA/NE FL AND BELIEVE SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE (DOWNWARD MOTION) LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
MAKE FOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MORNING (20-30%) BECOMING
HIGHER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WARMER WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 06Z AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT SSI BETWEEN 06Z-10Z...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LIFR
CIGS OF 200-400 FT ARE EXPECTED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS FROM
AROUND 10Z THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AT VQQ. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 14Z...WITH VFR
EXPECTED AROUND 17Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AT SSI...CRG...AND SGJ TOWARDS 17Z...WITH ONSHORE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 17Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WAS TOO LOW FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY UNTIL
LOCAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES AT 10-15 KNOTS SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW
SWELLS IMPACTING THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  82  67  82 /  60  30  30  70
SSI  66  78  69  79 /  50  20  30  60
JAX  66  85  68  84 /  20  40  30  60
SGJ  67  84  69  80 /  10  40  30  50
GNV  66  87  67  84 /  20  50  30  60
OCF  67  88  68  86 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KKEY 180120
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
925 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...BROAD...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST
ABOVE ONE AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CONSTANT OVERNIGHT. DESPITE ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...LACK OF AN APPARENT
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT.

 &&

.MARINE...
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
FROM 120-150 DEGREES AT OR ABOUT 6 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT FL020...AND CIRRUS AT FL200-FL250.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1897...1.16 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 17TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 118 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 180120
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
925 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (OVERNIGHT)...
IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...BROAD...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT. THE 00Z KKEY SOUNDING IS MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SEASONABLY MOIST...WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE JUST
ABOVE ONE AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN CONSTANT OVERNIGHT. DESPITE ADEQUATE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...LACK OF AN APPARENT
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
OVERNIGHT.

 &&

.MARINE...
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE
FROM 120-150 DEGREES AT OR ABOUT 6 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE AT FL020...AND CIRRUS AT FL200-FL250.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1897...1.16 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON APRIL 17TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 118 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION.............................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KTAE 180047
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
847 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
A MCV IS CROSSING SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA THIS
EVENING AND PRODUCING AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, MOSTLY
FOCUSED IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE SOME ISOLATE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS AROUND 30-40
MPH AT TIMES. GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY AND RAINFALL WILL BECOME
LIGHTER AS WE CONTINUE TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE MAY BEGIN TO
SEE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HIT THE LOW 70S FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE AREA. SW GA AND SE AL WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE
RAIN PASSING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY]  WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VSBYS AS WELL. THESE LOW
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT SATURDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD BREAK
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH AN ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET OVERHEAD, COMBINED WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN STREAM, RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT PATTERN WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A PERSISTENT CUT-OFF LOW,
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION, EJECTS EASTWARD
TODAY A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER-LOW ON
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK, CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER ARKLATEX REGION AND HELP DEVELOP A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY RETURNING TO OUR REGION,
WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. WITH WEAK LAPSE-RATES, UN-IMPRESSIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES, SEVERE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
GUSTY WINDS IN INDIVIDUAL STORMS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH SOME
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.0 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES,
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER TOTALS APPROACHING 3-4
INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-TO-BELOW AVERAGE WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

WE WILL FINALLY SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM THE CURRENT UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM. AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FOR OUR
AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARDS AND TO OUR NORTH. WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED , THE DRY AIR WILL NOT STAY
LONG AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER THURSDAY POPS WILL ELEVATED, BUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING SIMILAR
THIS THIS PAST WEEK IS NOT EXPECTED AND SHOWERS SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE
DIURNAL AND RANDOM TREND WITHOUT A DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING
MECHANISMS.


.MARINE...

LOW WINDS AND SEAS WILL REIGN OVER AREA WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL ELEVATE
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAUTIONARY WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER BELOW
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS AND LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A CLOUDY AND RAINY WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE RESULTED THE FOLLOWING RIVERS REACHING
ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGES: OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE,
APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER.
HOWEVER, NON OF THESE RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. FORTUNATELY MANY OF THE
RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WERE BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAINS FROM THIS WEEK HAVE BROUGHT
MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE-NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MORE OF THESE
RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   68  83  68  80  65 /  50  50  40  50  40
PANAMA CITY   70  78  71  77  70 /  50  50  50  60  40
DOTHAN        65  79  66  77  65 /  70  50  60  70  40
ALBANY        64  79  66  79  64 /  70  40  60  60  40
VALDOSTA      66  83  68  81  65 /  40  40  30  50  40
CROSS CITY    68  82  68  82  67 /  30  40  20  50  40
APALACHICOLA  72  79  73  77  71 /  40  40  40  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE/ARROYO
SHORT TERM...DVD/DOBBS
LONG TERM...DVD/DOBBS
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...DVD/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 180047
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
847 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
A MCV IS CROSSING SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA THIS
EVENING AND PRODUCING AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, MOSTLY
FOCUSED IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE SOME ISOLATE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS AROUND 30-40
MPH AT TIMES. GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY AND RAINFALL WILL BECOME
LIGHTER AS WE CONTINUE TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE MAY BEGIN TO
SEE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HIT THE LOW 70S FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE AREA. SW GA AND SE AL WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE
RAIN PASSING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY]  WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VSBYS AS WELL. THESE LOW
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT SATURDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD BREAK
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH AN ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET OVERHEAD, COMBINED WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN STREAM, RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT PATTERN WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A PERSISTENT CUT-OFF LOW,
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION, EJECTS EASTWARD
TODAY A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER-LOW ON
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK, CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER ARKLATEX REGION AND HELP DEVELOP A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY RETURNING TO OUR REGION,
WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. WITH WEAK LAPSE-RATES, UN-IMPRESSIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES, SEVERE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
GUSTY WINDS IN INDIVIDUAL STORMS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH SOME
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.0 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES,
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER TOTALS APPROACHING 3-4
INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-TO-BELOW AVERAGE WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

WE WILL FINALLY SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM THE CURRENT UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM. AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FOR OUR
AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARDS AND TO OUR NORTH. WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED , THE DRY AIR WILL NOT STAY
LONG AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER THURSDAY POPS WILL ELEVATED, BUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING SIMILAR
THIS THIS PAST WEEK IS NOT EXPECTED AND SHOWERS SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE
DIURNAL AND RANDOM TREND WITHOUT A DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING
MECHANISMS.


.MARINE...

LOW WINDS AND SEAS WILL REIGN OVER AREA WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL ELEVATE
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAUTIONARY WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER BELOW
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS AND LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A CLOUDY AND RAINY WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE RESULTED THE FOLLOWING RIVERS REACHING
ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGES: OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE,
APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER.
HOWEVER, NON OF THESE RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. FORTUNATELY MANY OF THE
RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WERE BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAINS FROM THIS WEEK HAVE BROUGHT
MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE-NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MORE OF THESE
RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   68  83  68  80  65 /  50  50  40  50  40
PANAMA CITY   70  78  71  77  70 /  50  50  50  60  40
DOTHAN        65  79  66  77  65 /  70  50  60  70  40
ALBANY        64  79  66  79  64 /  70  40  60  60  40
VALDOSTA      66  83  68  81  65 /  40  40  30  50  40
CROSS CITY    68  82  68  82  67 /  30  40  20  50  40
APALACHICOLA  72  79  73  77  71 /  40  40  40  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE/ARROYO
SHORT TERM...DVD/DOBBS
LONG TERM...DVD/DOBBS
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...DVD/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTAE 180047
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
847 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
A MCV IS CROSSING SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA THIS
EVENING AND PRODUCING AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, MOSTLY
FOCUSED IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE SOME ISOLATE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS AROUND 30-40
MPH AT TIMES. GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY AND RAINFALL WILL BECOME
LIGHTER AS WE CONTINUE TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE MAY BEGIN TO
SEE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HIT THE LOW 70S FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE AREA. SW GA AND SE AL WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE
RAIN PASSING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY]  WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VSBYS AS WELL. THESE LOW
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT SATURDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD BREAK
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH AN ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET OVERHEAD, COMBINED WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN STREAM, RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT PATTERN WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A PERSISTENT CUT-OFF LOW,
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION, EJECTS EASTWARD
TODAY A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER-LOW ON
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK, CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER ARKLATEX REGION AND HELP DEVELOP A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY RETURNING TO OUR REGION,
WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. WITH WEAK LAPSE-RATES, UN-IMPRESSIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES, SEVERE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
GUSTY WINDS IN INDIVIDUAL STORMS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH SOME
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.0 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES,
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER TOTALS APPROACHING 3-4
INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-TO-BELOW AVERAGE WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

WE WILL FINALLY SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM THE CURRENT UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM. AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FOR OUR
AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARDS AND TO OUR NORTH. WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED , THE DRY AIR WILL NOT STAY
LONG AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER THURSDAY POPS WILL ELEVATED, BUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING SIMILAR
THIS THIS PAST WEEK IS NOT EXPECTED AND SHOWERS SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE
DIURNAL AND RANDOM TREND WITHOUT A DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING
MECHANISMS.


.MARINE...

LOW WINDS AND SEAS WILL REIGN OVER AREA WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL ELEVATE
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAUTIONARY WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER BELOW
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS AND LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A CLOUDY AND RAINY WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE RESULTED THE FOLLOWING RIVERS REACHING
ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGES: OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE,
APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER.
HOWEVER, NON OF THESE RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. FORTUNATELY MANY OF THE
RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WERE BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAINS FROM THIS WEEK HAVE BROUGHT
MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE-NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MORE OF THESE
RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   68  83  68  80  65 /  50  50  40  50  40
PANAMA CITY   70  78  71  77  70 /  50  50  50  60  40
DOTHAN        65  79  66  77  65 /  70  50  60  70  40
ALBANY        64  79  66  79  64 /  70  40  60  60  40
VALDOSTA      66  83  68  81  65 /  40  40  30  50  40
CROSS CITY    68  82  68  82  67 /  30  40  20  50  40
APALACHICOLA  72  79  73  77  71 /  40  40  40  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE/ARROYO
SHORT TERM...DVD/DOBBS
LONG TERM...DVD/DOBBS
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...DVD/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



000
FXUS62 KTAE 180047
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
847 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
A MCV IS CROSSING SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA THIS
EVENING AND PRODUCING AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, MOSTLY
FOCUSED IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THESE SHOWERS MAY HAVE SOME ISOLATE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AND COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTS AROUND 30-40
MPH AT TIMES. GUSTS WILL BECOME LESS LIKELY AND RAINFALL WILL BECOME
LIGHTER AS WE CONTINUE TO STABILIZE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE MAY BEGIN TO
SEE PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HIT THE LOW 70S FOR MOST OF THE
PANHANDLE AREA. SW GA AND SE AL WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO THE
RAIN PASSING THROUGH.


&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY]  WITH A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR
OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VSBYS AS WELL. THESE LOW
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT SATURDAY MORNING, BUT SHOULD BREAK
OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH AN ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET OVERHEAD, COMBINED WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN STREAM, RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT PATTERN WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A PERSISTENT CUT-OFF LOW,
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION, EJECTS EASTWARD
TODAY A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER-LOW ON
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK, CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER ARKLATEX REGION AND HELP DEVELOP A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY RETURNING TO OUR REGION,
WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. WITH WEAK LAPSE-RATES, UN-IMPRESSIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES, SEVERE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
GUSTY WINDS IN INDIVIDUAL STORMS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH SOME
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.0 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES,
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER TOTALS APPROACHING 3-4
INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-TO-BELOW AVERAGE WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

WE WILL FINALLY SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM THE CURRENT UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM. AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FOR OUR
AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARDS AND TO OUR NORTH. WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED , THE DRY AIR WILL NOT STAY
LONG AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER THURSDAY POPS WILL ELEVATED, BUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING SIMILAR
THIS THIS PAST WEEK IS NOT EXPECTED AND SHOWERS SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE
DIURNAL AND RANDOM TREND WITHOUT A DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING
MECHANISMS.


.MARINE...

LOW WINDS AND SEAS WILL REIGN OVER AREA WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL ELEVATE
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAUTIONARY WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER BELOW
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS AND LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.


.FIRE WEATHER...

A CLOUDY AND RAINY WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK.


.HYDROLOGY...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE RESULTED THE FOLLOWING RIVERS REACHING
ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGES: OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE,
APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER.
HOWEVER, NON OF THESE RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. FORTUNATELY MANY OF THE
RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WERE BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAINS FROM THIS WEEK HAVE BROUGHT
MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE-NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MORE OF THESE
RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   68  83  68  80  65 /  50  50  40  50  40
PANAMA CITY   70  78  71  77  70 /  50  50  50  60  40
DOTHAN        65  79  66  77  65 /  70  50  60  70  40
ALBANY        64  79  66  79  64 /  70  40  60  60  40
VALDOSTA      66  83  68  81  65 /  40  40  30  50  40
CROSS CITY    68  82  68  82  67 /  30  40  20  50  40
APALACHICOLA  72  79  73  77  71 /  40  40  40  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE/ARROYO
SHORT TERM...DVD/DOBBS
LONG TERM...DVD/DOBBS
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...DVD/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




000
FXUS62 KTBW 180038
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
838 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.UPDATE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LINGER JUST NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY AS EVIDENT ON THIS EVENINGS SURFACE ANALYSIS. SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY SAW BETTER PROPAGATION AND COLLISION OF THE SEA
BREEZES WHICH OCCURRED JUST EAST OF THE CWA. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MANAGED TO DEVELOP INLAND TODAY BUT DID NOT
HAVE NEAR THE COVERAGE OR STRENGTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EVENING.
00Z TBW SOUNDING DID SHOW SOME DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WHICH
MAY HAVE HELPED LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE TODAY. HI RES
GUIDANCE THIS EVENING IS STILL TRYING TO DEVELOP A COUPLE MORE
SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH AROUND 2Z FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND
MAINLY SOUTH OF I 4 BUT NOT ENTIRELY CONVINCED GIVEN THE PATTERN
TODAY. FOR THE UPDATE...NUDGED POPS DOWN THROUGH TONIGHT BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH SUNRISE FOR THE
NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN A WEAK VORT MAX ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE DEEP SOUTH. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BEFORE SUNRISE...COULD SEE SOME FOG REDEVELOP NEAR PGD WITH SOME
LOWING CIGS AT SRQ AND LAL. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN SHIFT INLAND. SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF I 75...THEREFORE INCLUDED VCSH WORDING
LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR LAL.


&&

.MARINE...NO UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SLIGHTLY
TRIM RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION...GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE WEATHER IN THE EASTERN GULF
THIS WEEKEND AWAY FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH OLD STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA INTO SATURDAY WASHING OUT SUNDAY KEEPING
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE WHILE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZES DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY. SEAS
EXPECTED AROUND 2 FT OR LESS NEARSHORE...TO UP TO 3 FEET WELL
OFFSHORE. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS BRIEFLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH MIDWEEK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO UPDATES MADE THIS EVENING AND NO HEADLINES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  73  85  73  85 /  10  20  20  30
FMY  73  89  73  89 /   0  10  10  20
GIF  71  88  71  89 /  40  40  30  50
SRQ  72  84  72  84 /  10  10  10  30
BKV  68  86  67  87 /  20  30  20  40
SPG  74  85  74  85 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 172326
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR KFXE BUT MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL SHOULD BE GONE BY 02Z.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PLACED
VCTS FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AS STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THOSE AREAS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V OVERNIGHT BECMG SSE
ALONG THE EAST COAST AFT 18Z AND SSW AT KAPF AFT 15Z AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ALONG BOTH COASTS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..CONTINUED VERY WARM DAYS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS...

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL MID/UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, WITH
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER DESCRIBED BELOW.

SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE QUASI-RAINY-SEASON DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE
OVER THE WEAK RIDGE IN THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING, PREDOMINANT STEERING FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTERIOR AND EAST,
LEAVING THE GULF COAST MAINLY DRY. A DECENT-STRENGTH MID/UPPER
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH POSSIBLE
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
AGAIN, FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
INTERIOR TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE/PALM BEACHES, WITH LOWER POPS GULF
COAST AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TOASTY
THIS WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE, WITH LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE INTERIOR, NEAR 90 OVER THE METRO SOUTHEAST AREAS AND
MID/UPPER 80S GULF COAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
DEEP LAYERED MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO
BE PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH FLOW OVER FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ZONAL, LOWER HEIGHTS/COLDER AIR ALOFT ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH AND LINGER NEAR SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL STILL BE
MOSTLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN BUT COULD LINGER EVEN INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS DUE TO STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAM DIPPING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST/NORTH FLORIDA. HIGHEST POPS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA/PALM
BEACHES, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NEXT WEEK MAY END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT IT`S BEEN THIS WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY DUE MOSTLY TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NEAR KPBI.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AND MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IF STORMS GO OVER THE TAF
SITE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. KEPT VCSH AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
GET NEAR KFLL AND KOPF AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AT KAPF...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 84/AK

MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A LITTLE
INCREASE IN THE SOUTH WIND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  74  89 /  40  50  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  88  75  89 /  20  40  30  30
MIAMI            75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  30
NAPLES           74  87  73  87 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 172326
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR KFXE BUT MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL SHOULD BE GONE BY 02Z.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PLACED
VCTS FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AS STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THOSE AREAS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V OVERNIGHT BECMG SSE
ALONG THE EAST COAST AFT 18Z AND SSW AT KAPF AFT 15Z AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ALONG BOTH COASTS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..CONTINUED VERY WARM DAYS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS...

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL MID/UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, WITH
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER DESCRIBED BELOW.

SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE QUASI-RAINY-SEASON DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE
OVER THE WEAK RIDGE IN THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING, PREDOMINANT STEERING FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTERIOR AND EAST,
LEAVING THE GULF COAST MAINLY DRY. A DECENT-STRENGTH MID/UPPER
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH POSSIBLE
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
AGAIN, FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
INTERIOR TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE/PALM BEACHES, WITH LOWER POPS GULF
COAST AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TOASTY
THIS WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE, WITH LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE INTERIOR, NEAR 90 OVER THE METRO SOUTHEAST AREAS AND
MID/UPPER 80S GULF COAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
DEEP LAYERED MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO
BE PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH FLOW OVER FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ZONAL, LOWER HEIGHTS/COLDER AIR ALOFT ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH AND LINGER NEAR SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL STILL BE
MOSTLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN BUT COULD LINGER EVEN INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS DUE TO STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAM DIPPING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST/NORTH FLORIDA. HIGHEST POPS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA/PALM
BEACHES, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NEXT WEEK MAY END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT IT`S BEEN THIS WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY DUE MOSTLY TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NEAR KPBI.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AND MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IF STORMS GO OVER THE TAF
SITE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. KEPT VCSH AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
GET NEAR KFLL AND KOPF AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AT KAPF...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 84/AK

MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A LITTLE
INCREASE IN THE SOUTH WIND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  74  89 /  40  50  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  88  75  89 /  20  40  30  30
MIAMI            75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  30
NAPLES           74  87  73  87 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 172326
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.AVIATION...
STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR KFXE BUT MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND ALL SHOULD BE GONE BY 02Z.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PLACED
VCTS FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS AS STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FAVOR THOSE AREAS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V OVERNIGHT BECMG SSE
ALONG THE EAST COAST AFT 18Z AND SSW AT KAPF AFT 15Z AS THE SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION DEVELOPS ALONG BOTH COASTS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015/

..CONTINUED VERY WARM DAYS WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
STORMS...

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL MID/UPPER PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
IN THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A WEAK DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BECOME PROGRESSIVE ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. BY EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH WILL
EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, WITH
IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER DESCRIBED BELOW.

SHORT TERM (THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)...
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE QUASI-RAINY-SEASON DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND A COUPLE OF MID/UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE
OVER THE WEAK RIDGE IN THE GULF AND MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING, PREDOMINANT STEERING FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS INTERIOR AND EAST,
LEAVING THE GULF COAST MAINLY DRY. A DECENT-STRENGTH MID/UPPER
IMPULSE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH POSSIBLE
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTION AS STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST.
AGAIN, FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE
INTERIOR TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE/PALM BEACHES, WITH LOWER POPS GULF
COAST AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE TOASTY
THIS WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES INCREASE, WITH LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE INTERIOR, NEAR 90 OVER THE METRO SOUTHEAST AREAS AND
MID/UPPER 80S GULF COAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
DEEP LAYERED MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN UNITED STATES LOOKS TO
BE PLACE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH FLOW OVER FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER ZONAL, LOWER HEIGHTS/COLDER AIR ALOFT ALONG
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH AND LINGER NEAR SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL STILL BE
MOSTLY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN BUT COULD LINGER EVEN INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS DUE TO STRONGER ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
STREAM DIPPING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST/NORTH FLORIDA. HIGHEST POPS
EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA/PALM
BEACHES, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE
AREA. OVERALL, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE NEXT WEEK MAY END UP BEING
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT IT`S BEEN THIS WEEK. AFTER ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP SLIGHTLY DUE MOSTLY TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

AVIATION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
WERE CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY AND NEAR KPBI.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GET NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS...AND MVFR/IFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE IF STORMS GO OVER THE TAF
SITE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND MOVE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. KEPT VCSH AT THE
OTHER TAF SITES FOR NOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
GET NEAR KFLL AND KOPF AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER THE END OF
THE PERIOD. AT KAPF...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASE TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY. 84/AK

MARINE...
RATHER LIGHT SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WIND THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A LITTLE
INCREASE IN THE SOUTH WIND SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE
AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  74  89 /  40  50  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  88  75  89 /  20  40  30  30
MIAMI            75  90  75  89 /  20  30  30  30
NAPLES           74  87  73  87 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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