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000
FXUS62 KMFL 202352
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

SHWS AND A FEW STORMS WHICH AFFECTED MIA AND NEARBY TERMINALS HAVE
WEAKENED AND DEPARTED OFFSHORE. SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATER, AS
THEY REDEVELOP OVER THE FLOIRDA STRAITS TONIGHT, SO AFTER A BREAK
VCSH WAS USED. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ENTERING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WILL LEAD
TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. VCTS MAY BE
NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 202352
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

SHWS AND A FEW STORMS WHICH AFFECTED MIA AND NEARBY TERMINALS HAVE
WEAKENED AND DEPARTED OFFSHORE. SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATER, AS
THEY REDEVELOP OVER THE FLOIRDA STRAITS TONIGHT, SO AFTER A BREAK
VCSH WAS USED. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ENTERING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WILL LEAD
TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. VCTS MAY BE
NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 201956
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT/TUE...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT PUSHED REMNANT FRONTAL
BDRY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD NWD A LITTLE...RESULTING IN
WEAK SW-WRLY SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COOL FRONT. MID LEVEL
FLOW BACKS SLIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE CARVING ITSELF OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE SRN COS COULD
TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS THERE...HOWEVER MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM ENE FROM DISTURBANCE
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL...WHICH WILL ACT TO
LIMIT INSOLATION SOME. PREMISE OF THE FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH
A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION NEAR/SOUTH OF MLB-LAKE KISSIMMEE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE
M80S..AND MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTH OWING TO
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PUSH
TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO NORTH LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...A DEEP MOISTURE RIBBON EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA AND TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS WHERE THE MOISTURE RIBBON
HOOKS UP WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MA/NY/NJ/DELMARVA PENINSULA REGION. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH GULF AND CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND OVER
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC THAT ARE
TRANSPORTING A MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS UNDERNEATH THE WARMER
MORE UNSTABLE AIR ABOVE IT. THIS SET UP INTRODUCES AN ISENTROPIC
LIFT SITUATION WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND MUCH
LESS...20 OR LESS...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BIG DIFFERENCE EXPECTED IN CLOUD COVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VERY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SOUTH TO NORTH
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS REACHING WELL
INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW 60S IN THE LESS CLOUDED AREAS TO THE MID 60S IN THE MORE
CLOUDED AREAS.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH PATCHY MIFG/BR PSBL ONCE
AGAIN 08Z-12Z. ISOLD TS PSBL KMLB-KSUA AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/TUE NIGHT SE-S WINDS BLO 10KT THIS EVENING WILL
VEER TO SWRLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE...AND SW-W LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. SEAS DROPPING BACK TO 2-3FT AS
REMNANT SWELL CONTINUES TO DECAY.

TUE NIGHT-THU...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF MEXICO
ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA RESULTS IN
PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND PATTERN TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET TUE NIGHT INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE WITH SOME 6 FOOT WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI-SAT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRI INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS SAT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE NORTH/CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THEM AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  85  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  69  84  67  83 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  68  84  67  84 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  67  86  64  84 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  69  86  67  84 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  66  84  66  83 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 201956
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT/TUE...WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT PUSHED REMNANT FRONTAL
BDRY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BUILD NWD A LITTLE...RESULTING IN
WEAK SW-WRLY SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COOL FRONT. MID LEVEL
FLOW BACKS SLIGHT AHEAD OF WEAK VORT LOBES MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LARGE TROUGH WHICH WILL BE CARVING ITSELF OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN U.S. INFLUX OF HIGHER PWAT AIR INTO THE SRN COS COULD
TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS THERE...HOWEVER MID-UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL ALSO BEGIN TO STREAM ENE FROM DISTURBANCE
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF FL...WHICH WILL ACT TO
LIMIT INSOLATION SOME. PREMISE OF THE FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH
A SLIGHT CHC FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION NEAR/SOUTH OF MLB-LAKE KISSIMMEE.

OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MAXES GENERALLY IN THE
M80S..AND MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE SOUTH OWING TO
THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND PUSH
TOWARD SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO STALL DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL FILTER INTO NORTH LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER OKEECHOBEE...SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...A DEEP MOISTURE RIBBON EXTENDS FROM AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH
FLORIDA AND TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS WHERE THE MOISTURE RIBBON
HOOKS UP WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM A LARGE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MA/NY/NJ/DELMARVA PENINSULA REGION. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS PUSH GULF AND CARIBBEAN MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND OVER
LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OFF THE ATLANTIC THAT ARE
TRANSPORTING A MORE STABLE SURFACE AIR MASS UNDERNEATH THE WARMER
MORE UNSTABLE AIR ABOVE IT. THIS SET UP INTRODUCES AN ISENTROPIC
LIFT SITUATION WITH HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND MUCH
LESS...20 OR LESS...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BIG DIFFERENCE EXPECTED IN CLOUD COVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS AND PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE VERY FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SOUTH TO NORTH
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE DUE TO THE ONSHORE WINDS REACHING WELL
INLAND. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE LOW 60S IN THE LESS CLOUDED AREAS TO THE MID 60S IN THE MORE
CLOUDED AREAS.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH PATCHY MIFG/BR PSBL ONCE
AGAIN 08Z-12Z. ISOLD TS PSBL KMLB-KSUA AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/TUE NIGHT SE-S WINDS BLO 10KT THIS EVENING WILL
VEER TO SWRLY OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUE...AND SW-W LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. SEAS DROPPING BACK TO 2-3FT AS
REMNANT SWELL CONTINUES TO DECAY.

TUE NIGHT-THU...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF MEXICO
ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA RESULTS IN
PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND PATTERN TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET TUE NIGHT INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE WITH SOME 6 FOOT WAVES IN THE GULF STREAM EARLY THU MORNING.

FRI-SAT...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRI INCREASE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS SAT AS AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND THE NORTH/CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THEM AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  85  63  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  69  84  67  83 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  68  84  67  84 /  10  20  30  30
LEE  67  86  64  84 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  67  86  65  84 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  69  86  67  84 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  66  84  66  83 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KMFL 201955
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LET THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 201955
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LET THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 201955
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LET THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 201955
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LET THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 201955 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FALL LATE THIS
WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201955 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FALL LATE THIS
WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTAE 201944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Regional radar mosaics do reveal some isolated showers over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico near a low-level convergence zone, as was
expected with this morning`s forecast. These showers should
continue through the afternoon and may clip some land areas near
Apalachicola before diminishing in the early evening. A continued
weak pressure pattern with dry northwest flow aloft should lead to
a dry night with diminishing cloud cover. Subsidence combined with
clearing skies could lead to some patchy fog in a few areas, and
that was included in the forecast. Otherwise, lows should be
mostly in the 50s, with a few upper 40s possible in the far
northwest and west parts of the forecast area.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] While some patchy fog cannot be ruled out at
any of the terminals overnight, confidence is not high enough to
include it in the TAFs yet other than a brief period of MVFR VIS at
VLD around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with
light winds.


&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  81  57  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  81  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  48  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      55  82  50  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  84  52  81  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  56  78  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 201944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Regional radar mosaics do reveal some isolated showers over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico near a low-level convergence zone, as was
expected with this morning`s forecast. These showers should
continue through the afternoon and may clip some land areas near
Apalachicola before diminishing in the early evening. A continued
weak pressure pattern with dry northwest flow aloft should lead to
a dry night with diminishing cloud cover. Subsidence combined with
clearing skies could lead to some patchy fog in a few areas, and
that was included in the forecast. Otherwise, lows should be
mostly in the 50s, with a few upper 40s possible in the far
northwest and west parts of the forecast area.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] While some patchy fog cannot be ruled out at
any of the terminals overnight, confidence is not high enough to
include it in the TAFs yet other than a brief period of MVFR VIS at
VLD around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with
light winds.


&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  81  57  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  81  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  48  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      55  82  50  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  84  52  81  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  56  78  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 201944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Regional radar mosaics do reveal some isolated showers over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico near a low-level convergence zone, as was
expected with this morning`s forecast. These showers should
continue through the afternoon and may clip some land areas near
Apalachicola before diminishing in the early evening. A continued
weak pressure pattern with dry northwest flow aloft should lead to
a dry night with diminishing cloud cover. Subsidence combined with
clearing skies could lead to some patchy fog in a few areas, and
that was included in the forecast. Otherwise, lows should be
mostly in the 50s, with a few upper 40s possible in the far
northwest and west parts of the forecast area.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] While some patchy fog cannot be ruled out at
any of the terminals overnight, confidence is not high enough to
include it in the TAFs yet other than a brief period of MVFR VIS at
VLD around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with
light winds.


&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  81  57  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  81  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  48  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      55  82  50  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  84  52  81  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  56  78  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 201944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Regional radar mosaics do reveal some isolated showers over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico near a low-level convergence zone, as was
expected with this morning`s forecast. These showers should
continue through the afternoon and may clip some land areas near
Apalachicola before diminishing in the early evening. A continued
weak pressure pattern with dry northwest flow aloft should lead to
a dry night with diminishing cloud cover. Subsidence combined with
clearing skies could lead to some patchy fog in a few areas, and
that was included in the forecast. Otherwise, lows should be
mostly in the 50s, with a few upper 40s possible in the far
northwest and west parts of the forecast area.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A large upper level trough along the east coast will keep upper
level northwesterly flow in place across the area through the
short term. Surface high pressure centered north of the region
will keep the low level flow northerly as well, preventing deep
moisture from return and keeping rain chances near zero. Daytime
highs will be near average with overnight lows near to slightly
below average with the dry airmass in place.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z
Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period
similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep
PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near
average and overnight lows a few degrees below average.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] While some patchy fog cannot be ruled out at
any of the terminals overnight, confidence is not high enough to
include it in the TAFs yet other than a brief period of MVFR VIS at
VLD around daybreak. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with
light winds.


&&

.Marine...
Offshore flow will prevail for the next several days. Winds and
seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as
another dry cold front moves through.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will remain fairly low
through the period, it is not expected to become dry enough to
create any Red Flag concerns. However, with the high dispersions
on Wednesday, caution should be used during any controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   54  83  50  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   59  81  57  78  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        51  81  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        51  82  48  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      55  82  50  76  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    57  84  52  81  47 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  81  56  78  52 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD




  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 201927
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.

THE THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE COLUMN IS
STILL VERY DRY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C...WHICH IS GOOD
REASON TO WHY THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHALLOW TODAY. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING HAS ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION...WITH
MANY COASTAL WINDS NOW FLIPPING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS KEEPING THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE MIXED OUT
TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4 NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
"ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEEN AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE
DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 70S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY (PERHAPS A BIT
EARLIER). NOW...JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY
SARASOTA TO SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS AND SOUTHWARD. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FROM
THE INHERITED FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND...OTHER THAN TO RAISE POPS
ANOTHER 10% OR SO DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. WENT BACK IN
FORTH WITH MENTIONING "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN KEPT RAIN CHANCES
CAPPED AT 50%. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER...ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN AS
NO GUIDANCE MEMBER SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
THESE NORTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE/INSOLATION AS
WELL...WITH A DEEPER/THICKER CLOUD CANOPY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SUNCOAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...WITH THIS POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
CAPTURING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSELY TOGETHER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO HIGHER ALBEIT STILL BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FEATURE THE MODELS ARE LATCHING
ONTO ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE BAHAMAS IF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AND RAIN FREE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
A FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELD. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY/KRSW..THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND.
EXPECTING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE STARTING THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT TIMES LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN BETWEEN
LO PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR ZONES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE
THE NEXT TWO MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  85  69  84 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  85  71  85 /  10  50  30  40
GIF  67  86  68  83 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  67  84  68  85 /   0  20  20  20
BKV  59  86  59  84 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  72  84  72  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 201927
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.

THE THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE COLUMN IS
STILL VERY DRY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C...WHICH IS GOOD
REASON TO WHY THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHALLOW TODAY. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING HAS ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION...WITH
MANY COASTAL WINDS NOW FLIPPING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS KEEPING THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE MIXED OUT
TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4 NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
"ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEEN AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE
DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 70S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY (PERHAPS A BIT
EARLIER). NOW...JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY
SARASOTA TO SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS AND SOUTHWARD. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FROM
THE INHERITED FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND...OTHER THAN TO RAISE POPS
ANOTHER 10% OR SO DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. WENT BACK IN
FORTH WITH MENTIONING "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN KEPT RAIN CHANCES
CAPPED AT 50%. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER...ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN AS
NO GUIDANCE MEMBER SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
THESE NORTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE/INSOLATION AS
WELL...WITH A DEEPER/THICKER CLOUD CANOPY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SUNCOAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...WITH THIS POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
CAPTURING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSELY TOGETHER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO HIGHER ALBEIT STILL BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FEATURE THE MODELS ARE LATCHING
ONTO ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE BAHAMAS IF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AND RAIN FREE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
A FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELD. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY/KRSW..THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND.
EXPECTING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE STARTING THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT TIMES LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN BETWEEN
LO PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR ZONES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE
THE NEXT TWO MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  85  69  84 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  85  71  85 /  10  50  30  40
GIF  67  86  68  83 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  67  84  68  85 /   0  20  20  20
BKV  59  86  59  84 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  72  84  72  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 201927
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.

THE THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE COLUMN IS
STILL VERY DRY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C...WHICH IS GOOD
REASON TO WHY THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHALLOW TODAY. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING HAS ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION...WITH
MANY COASTAL WINDS NOW FLIPPING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS KEEPING THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE MIXED OUT
TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4 NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
"ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEEN AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE
DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 70S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY (PERHAPS A BIT
EARLIER). NOW...JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY
SARASOTA TO SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS AND SOUTHWARD. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FROM
THE INHERITED FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND...OTHER THAN TO RAISE POPS
ANOTHER 10% OR SO DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. WENT BACK IN
FORTH WITH MENTIONING "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN KEPT RAIN CHANCES
CAPPED AT 50%. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER...ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN AS
NO GUIDANCE MEMBER SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
THESE NORTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE/INSOLATION AS
WELL...WITH A DEEPER/THICKER CLOUD CANOPY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SUNCOAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...WITH THIS POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
CAPTURING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSELY TOGETHER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO HIGHER ALBEIT STILL BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FEATURE THE MODELS ARE LATCHING
ONTO ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE BAHAMAS IF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AND RAIN FREE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
A FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELD. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY/KRSW..THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND.
EXPECTING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE STARTING THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT TIMES LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN BETWEEN
LO PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR ZONES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE
THE NEXT TWO MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  85  69  84 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  85  71  85 /  10  50  30  40
GIF  67  86  68  83 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  67  84  68  85 /   0  20  20  20
BKV  59  86  59  84 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  72  84  72  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 201927
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.

THE THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE SHOWED THE COLUMN IS
STILL VERY DRY. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C...WHICH IS GOOD
REASON TO WHY THE CUMULUS FIELD IS SHALLOW TODAY. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT COMBINED WITH STRONG
TERRESTRIAL HEATING HAS ALLOW A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION...WITH
MANY COASTAL WINDS NOW FLIPPING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND
TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS KEEPING THE FORECAST
RAIN FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE MIXED OUT
TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4 NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES
"ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SEEN AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE
DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE UPPER 70S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY MIDDAY TUESDAY (PERHAPS A BIT
EARLIER). NOW...JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE
DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC
LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES
FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY
SARASOTA TO SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT
MYERS AND SOUTHWARD. DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS FROM
THE INHERITED FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND...OTHER THAN TO RAISE POPS
ANOTHER 10% OR SO DOWN TOWARD CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. WENT BACK IN
FORTH WITH MENTIONING "LIKELY" RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR SOUTH...BUT
SOME UNCERTAINLY IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN KEPT RAIN CHANCES
CAPPED AT 50%. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES NEED TO BE RAISED
FURTHER...ACCUMULATIONS STILL LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE
LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST. ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN AS
NO GUIDANCE MEMBER SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE WILL REACH THIS FAR NORTH.
THESE NORTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE/INSOLATION AS
WELL...WITH A DEEPER/THICKER CLOUD CANOPY MOVING ASHORE ALONG THE
SUNCOAST.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...WITH THIS POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
CAPTURING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSELY TOGETHER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO HIGHER ALBEIT STILL BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FEATURE THE MODELS ARE LATCHING
ONTO ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE BAHAMAS IF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AND RAIN FREE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
A FEW-SCT CUMULUS FIELD. ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY/KRSW..THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND.
EXPECTING GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT MILD WEATHER WILL BE CHANGING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE STARTING THURSDAY AND
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AT TIMES LATER THIS
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN BETWEEN
LO PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR ZONES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE LIGHT. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND NO SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE
THE NEXT TWO MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD FOG IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  85  69  84 /   0  10  10  20
FMY  70  85  71  85 /  10  50  30  40
GIF  67  86  68  83 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  67  84  68  85 /   0  20  20  20
BKV  59  86  59  84 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  72  84  72  84 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...JELSEMA
MARINE...DOUGHERTY




  [top]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 201908
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A HIGH CELL MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST IS BEGINNING
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS FLOW IS
BRINGING IN A MUCH MORE MOIST SURFACE LAYER...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW IN THE MID 70S IN MUCH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WHILE STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CLOUD COVER HAS MANAGED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD LOWER LEVEL
SWATH OF MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST - RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX AS THE HIGH CELL TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

ON TUESDAY...THE KEYS WILL BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF A COL...BETWEEN
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND
FALLING PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT
MAINLY EAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE...DECELERATING FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THE MAIN ZONE OF LOWER LEVEL LIFT SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER COVERAGE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THESE PERIODS...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THE AID OF
A COUPLE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
GROW IN SIZE AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN TOWARDS
FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LOCAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE GRADUALLY...POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES NEARER THE FLORIDA KEYS...MOIST LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CONFLUENT FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
A PERIOD OR TWO OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE STILL VERY YOUNG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND EXACT TIMING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN ONLY BE
PINNED DOWN TO THE EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WILL HOLD
ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WILL GRADUALLY BACK OFF ON POPS
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
CELL MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A GROWING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING EASTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL RESULT IN WINDS
ACCELERATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR KEYS WATERS IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED...AS THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY
SHOWERS IN THE FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION AND INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW FROM 09Z TO 15Z.SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  84  76  85 / 60 60 50 60
MARATHON  76  84  76  85 / 60 60 50 60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201908
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A HIGH CELL MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST IS BEGINNING
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS FLOW IS
BRINGING IN A MUCH MORE MOIST SURFACE LAYER...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW IN THE MID 70S IN MUCH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WHILE STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CLOUD COVER HAS MANAGED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD LOWER LEVEL
SWATH OF MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST - RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX AS THE HIGH CELL TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

ON TUESDAY...THE KEYS WILL BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF A COL...BETWEEN
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND
FALLING PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT
MAINLY EAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE...DECELERATING FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THE MAIN ZONE OF LOWER LEVEL LIFT SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER COVERAGE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THESE PERIODS...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THE AID OF
A COUPLE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
GROW IN SIZE AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN TOWARDS
FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LOCAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE GRADUALLY...POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES NEARER THE FLORIDA KEYS...MOIST LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CONFLUENT FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
A PERIOD OR TWO OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE STILL VERY YOUNG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND EXACT TIMING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN ONLY BE
PINNED DOWN TO THE EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WILL HOLD
ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WILL GRADUALLY BACK OFF ON POPS
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
CELL MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A GROWING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING EASTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL RESULT IN WINDS
ACCELERATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR KEYS WATERS IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED...AS THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY
SHOWERS IN THE FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION AND INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW FROM 09Z TO 15Z.SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  84  76  85 / 60 60 50 60
MARATHON  76  84  76  85 / 60 60 50 60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201908
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A HIGH CELL MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST IS BEGINNING
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS FLOW IS
BRINGING IN A MUCH MORE MOIST SURFACE LAYER...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW IN THE MID 70S IN MUCH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WHILE STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CLOUD COVER HAS MANAGED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD LOWER LEVEL
SWATH OF MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST - RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX AS THE HIGH CELL TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

ON TUESDAY...THE KEYS WILL BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF A COL...BETWEEN
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND
FALLING PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT
MAINLY EAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE...DECELERATING FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THE MAIN ZONE OF LOWER LEVEL LIFT SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER COVERAGE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THESE PERIODS...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THE AID OF
A COUPLE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
GROW IN SIZE AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN TOWARDS
FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LOCAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE GRADUALLY...POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES NEARER THE FLORIDA KEYS...MOIST LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CONFLUENT FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
A PERIOD OR TWO OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE STILL VERY YOUNG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND EXACT TIMING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN ONLY BE
PINNED DOWN TO THE EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WILL HOLD
ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WILL GRADUALLY BACK OFF ON POPS
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
CELL MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A GROWING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING EASTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL RESULT IN WINDS
ACCELERATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR KEYS WATERS IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED...AS THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY
SHOWERS IN THE FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION AND INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW FROM 09Z TO 15Z.SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  84  76  85 / 60 60 50 60
MARATHON  76  84  76  85 / 60 60 50 60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 201908
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
308 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A HIGH CELL MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST IS BEGINNING
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS. THIS FLOW IS
BRINGING IN A MUCH MORE MOIST SURFACE LAYER...AND DEW POINTS ARE
NOW IN THE MID 70S IN MUCH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WHILE STILL IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. CLOUD COVER HAS MANAGED TO HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. A BROAD LOWER LEVEL
SWATH OF MUCH HIGHER MOISTURE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MIGRATING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AS A
RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

FORECAST - RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE HIGHEST TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE ZONE OF LOW LEVEL LIFT CONTINUES
TO TRAVERSE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WILL
MAINTAIN LIKELY POPS FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX AS THE HIGH CELL TO OUR NORTH CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

ON TUESDAY...THE KEYS WILL BE SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF A COL...BETWEEN
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND
FALLING PRESSURE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LIGHT
MAINLY EAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT THE WEAK FLOW AT THE SURFACE...DECELERATING FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWER LEVELS...AND THE MAIN ZONE OF LOWER LEVEL LIFT SHIFTING
NORTH OF OUR AREA SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER COVERAGE TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW NIGHT. WILL HOLD ON TO HIGH CHANCE FOR THESE PERIODS...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THE AID OF
A COUPLE OF PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND
GROW IN SIZE AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN TOWARDS
FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. LOCAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE GRADUALLY...POSSIBLY BECOMING BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT
OF THE EAST. AS THIS LOW MOVES NEARER THE FLORIDA KEYS...MOIST LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC CONFLUENT FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
A PERIOD OR TWO OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE STILL VERY YOUNG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND EXACT TIMING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN ONLY BE
PINNED DOWN TO THE EARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WILL HOLD
ONTO LIKELY POPS FOR THIS TIME FRAME. WILL GRADUALLY BACK OFF ON POPS
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL SLACKEN OVERNIGHT AS A HIGH
CELL MOVES OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY.
A GROWING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGRATING EASTWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA AND
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL RESULT IN WINDS
ACCELERATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND ADVISORIES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR KEYS WATERS IN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL STEADILY BACK FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. STAY TUNED...AS THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY
SHOWERS IN THE FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION AND INCLUDE A
PROB30 FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW FROM 09Z TO 15Z.SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  84  76  85 / 60 60 50 60
MARATHON  76  84  76  85 / 60 60 50 60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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  [top]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 201902
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
305 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF A COASTAL SHOWER THIS EVENING...

...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS THE REST OF THE WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WEAK TROF WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
BUT THE E/SE ONSHORE FLOW MAY STILL KICK OFF A SHOWER THIS EVENING
MAINLY FROM JACKSONVILLE NORTHWARD TO BRUNSWICK ALONG THE COAST.
MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES WILL SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE
70S AFTER SUNSET UNTIL AS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK APART.

OVERNIGHT...WEAK TROF LIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SKIES WILL START TO THIN OUT TOWARDS MORNING ENDING ANY COASTAL PCPN
THREAT AS SFC WIND FLOW BECOMES LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY. AS THE AIRMASS
COOLS INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S WELL INLAND AND 60S ALONG THE COAST AND
ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN TOWARDS SUNRISE...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
WITH VSBYS IN THE 1-3 MILE RANGE...SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
GRIDS/ZFP AROUND SUNRISE...BUT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SHORT TERM /TUE-WED/...
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CUTOFF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...CREATING AN
INCREASINGLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT OVER OUR REGION.
ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE REMAINING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL CREATE LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS...ALLOWING FOR PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE
OCT CLIMO...WITH LOW TO MID 80S EXPECTED INLAND AND A WEAK AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL HIGHS NEAR 80.

AS LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFF NEW ENGLAND...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
PLUNGE THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUES NIGHT AND WED MORNING. A
TIGHTENING LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP A NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE
IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING...WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION
DEVELOPING AND DROPPING LOWS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GA...WITH LOWER 50S FORECAST. LOWS ELSEWHERE WILL FALL TO
NEAR CLIMO...WITH 50S INLAND AND LOW/MID 60S IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
DEEPENING N/NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE COOL AIR ADVECTION PATTERN IN
PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED...WITH HIGHS FALLING
SHORT OF CLIMO OVER SOUTHEAST GA...WITH MID 70S EXPECTED. HIGHS
ELSEWHERE WILL RANGE FROM 75-80 UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER ON WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER...DECOUPLING WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND...WHERE
LOWS IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL FALL INTO
THE MID/UPPER 40S. LOWS ELSEWHERE INLAND WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO
THE LOWER 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

.LONG TERM /THU-MON/...
LONG-TERM OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/YUCATAN PENINSULA REGION LATER
THIS WEEK. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT E/NE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHEAST FL. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN THIS
LOW/FRONT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH
AN NORTHEASTERLY WIND REGIME ON THURS KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 70S
REGION-WIDE. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO LOWS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURS...WITH LOWS INLAND IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S...AND ONSHORE
WINDS KEEPING LOWS NEAR 60 AT THE COAST. TEMPS WILL MODERATE ON
FRIDAY AS LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST...WITH HIGHS NEAR 80
INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

OPTED TO KEEP PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND
GIVEN THE RECENT LONG-TERM MODEL INCONSISTENCY...BUT WE MAY NEED TO
DROP RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND IF CURRENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS
CONTINUE. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT THIS DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF THE
LOW/FRONT TO OUR SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR BROKEN CIGS AT 3500-4500 FEET WILL LINGER UNTIL SUNSET THEN
BREAK-UP LEAVING JUST HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BTWN 10-12Z AT ALL SITES AND POSSIBLE IFR VSBYS AT
KGNV/KVQQ AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMES SW/W AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SEAS IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THEN
A SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY BECOMING
NELY AND WEAKENING TO 10-15 KNOTS THU/FRI. NO SIGNIFICANT HEADLINES
EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK LINGERS TODAY IN THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT
WILL DOWNGRADE TO LOW ON TUESDAY IN THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  54  81  54  75 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  64  80  60  73 /  20  10   0   0
JAX  61  83  59  78 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  67  82  63  79 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  60  84  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  62  85  62  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KMFL 201724
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
124 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED AT THE BASE OF A STRONG
INVERSION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL NOT ANTICIPATE SHRA WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE SHRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST,
HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH AND THINK ANY CHANCE
FOR THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO START TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR ALLEY TODAY ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA
BREEZES COLLIDED. SO WILL KEEP A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALLIGATOR ALLEY FOR TODAY.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201724
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
124 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED AT THE BASE OF A STRONG
INVERSION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL NOT ANTICIPATE SHRA WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE SHRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST,
HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH AND THINK ANY CHANCE
FOR THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO START TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR ALLEY TODAY ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA
BREEZES COLLIDED. SO WILL KEEP A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALLIGATOR ALLEY FOR TODAY.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KTAE 201514
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1114 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Rest of Today]...

Very few changes were made to the existing forecast which largely
seems on track. Temperatures were nudged up slightly in the
Suwannee River area based on the latest model guidance. The
previous forecast reasoning is still valid and is included here:

A northern stream trough will dig through the Tennessee Valley, and
merge with a southern stream anomaly over the Southeast today. With
deep layer dry air in place, this will do little but to generate
some thin cirrus clouds across the region this afternoon.

The effect of the trough will be to weaken surface ridging, and
possibly break it into two circulations: one over the western
Atlantic, and one over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will place
our region in a very weak low-level convergent zone. Couple that
with a weak surface trough moving through the northeast Gulf and a
surge in low-level moisture around the Atlantic ridge, and we may be
able to squeeze out a few shallow showers in-and-around the
Forgotten Coast and the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, expect another
seasonable afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and
no rain (outside of the aforementioned area).

&&

.Prev Discussion [316 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

An upper low is forecast to close off over the eastern Great
Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. This feature will slowly drop
southeastward to near the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday and
effectively deepen the east coast trough. The axis of the trough
will sweep from west to east across our CWA on Tuesday with a
sharp but narrow ridge beginning to build in on Wednesday. At the
surface, expect another dry cold front to pass through the Tri-
state region Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid
50s away from the coast with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid
80s. Wednesday will be cooler with lows around 50 to the lower
50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 80 south.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Patchy fog will be possible north of the Florida line near sunrise.
The best chance for restrictive visibilities will be at KDHN and
KABY. VFR will return to all sites within an hour of sunrise and
persist through the TAF.


.Marine...

Onshore winds today will swing around to become offshore tonight
through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will elevate
slightly in the wake of another dry cold front Tuesday night.
At this time it looks like conditions will remain below headline
criteria.


.Fire Weather...

Although it will be dry for the next several days, minimum relative
humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   81  56  83  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  61  80  59  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        77  52  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  53  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      80  56  82  51  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  58  84  53  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  64  79  60  77 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 201514
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1114 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Rest of Today]...

Very few changes were made to the existing forecast which largely
seems on track. Temperatures were nudged up slightly in the
Suwannee River area based on the latest model guidance. The
previous forecast reasoning is still valid and is included here:

A northern stream trough will dig through the Tennessee Valley, and
merge with a southern stream anomaly over the Southeast today. With
deep layer dry air in place, this will do little but to generate
some thin cirrus clouds across the region this afternoon.

The effect of the trough will be to weaken surface ridging, and
possibly break it into two circulations: one over the western
Atlantic, and one over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will place
our region in a very weak low-level convergent zone. Couple that
with a weak surface trough moving through the northeast Gulf and a
surge in low-level moisture around the Atlantic ridge, and we may be
able to squeeze out a few shallow showers in-and-around the
Forgotten Coast and the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, expect another
seasonable afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and
no rain (outside of the aforementioned area).

&&

.Prev Discussion [316 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

An upper low is forecast to close off over the eastern Great
Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. This feature will slowly drop
southeastward to near the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday and
effectively deepen the east coast trough. The axis of the trough
will sweep from west to east across our CWA on Tuesday with a
sharp but narrow ridge beginning to build in on Wednesday. At the
surface, expect another dry cold front to pass through the Tri-
state region Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid
50s away from the coast with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid
80s. Wednesday will be cooler with lows around 50 to the lower
50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 80 south.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Patchy fog will be possible north of the Florida line near sunrise.
The best chance for restrictive visibilities will be at KDHN and
KABY. VFR will return to all sites within an hour of sunrise and
persist through the TAF.


.Marine...

Onshore winds today will swing around to become offshore tonight
through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will elevate
slightly in the wake of another dry cold front Tuesday night.
At this time it looks like conditions will remain below headline
criteria.


.Fire Weather...

Although it will be dry for the next several days, minimum relative
humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   81  56  83  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  61  80  59  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        77  52  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  53  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      80  56  82  51  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  58  84  53  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  64  79  60  77 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 201514
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1114 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Rest of Today]...

Very few changes were made to the existing forecast which largely
seems on track. Temperatures were nudged up slightly in the
Suwannee River area based on the latest model guidance. The
previous forecast reasoning is still valid and is included here:

A northern stream trough will dig through the Tennessee Valley, and
merge with a southern stream anomaly over the Southeast today. With
deep layer dry air in place, this will do little but to generate
some thin cirrus clouds across the region this afternoon.

The effect of the trough will be to weaken surface ridging, and
possibly break it into two circulations: one over the western
Atlantic, and one over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will place
our region in a very weak low-level convergent zone. Couple that
with a weak surface trough moving through the northeast Gulf and a
surge in low-level moisture around the Atlantic ridge, and we may be
able to squeeze out a few shallow showers in-and-around the
Forgotten Coast and the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, expect another
seasonable afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and
no rain (outside of the aforementioned area).

&&

.Prev Discussion [316 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

An upper low is forecast to close off over the eastern Great
Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. This feature will slowly drop
southeastward to near the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday and
effectively deepen the east coast trough. The axis of the trough
will sweep from west to east across our CWA on Tuesday with a
sharp but narrow ridge beginning to build in on Wednesday. At the
surface, expect another dry cold front to pass through the Tri-
state region Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid
50s away from the coast with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid
80s. Wednesday will be cooler with lows around 50 to the lower
50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 80 south.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Patchy fog will be possible north of the Florida line near sunrise.
The best chance for restrictive visibilities will be at KDHN and
KABY. VFR will return to all sites within an hour of sunrise and
persist through the TAF.


.Marine...

Onshore winds today will swing around to become offshore tonight
through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will elevate
slightly in the wake of another dry cold front Tuesday night.
At this time it looks like conditions will remain below headline
criteria.


.Fire Weather...

Although it will be dry for the next several days, minimum relative
humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   81  56  83  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  61  80  59  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        77  52  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  53  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      80  56  82  51  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  58  84  53  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  64  79  60  77 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 201514
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1114 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Rest of Today]...

Very few changes were made to the existing forecast which largely
seems on track. Temperatures were nudged up slightly in the
Suwannee River area based on the latest model guidance. The
previous forecast reasoning is still valid and is included here:

A northern stream trough will dig through the Tennessee Valley, and
merge with a southern stream anomaly over the Southeast today. With
deep layer dry air in place, this will do little but to generate
some thin cirrus clouds across the region this afternoon.

The effect of the trough will be to weaken surface ridging, and
possibly break it into two circulations: one over the western
Atlantic, and one over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will place
our region in a very weak low-level convergent zone. Couple that
with a weak surface trough moving through the northeast Gulf and a
surge in low-level moisture around the Atlantic ridge, and we may be
able to squeeze out a few shallow showers in-and-around the
Forgotten Coast and the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, expect another
seasonable afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and
no rain (outside of the aforementioned area).

&&

.Prev Discussion [316 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

An upper low is forecast to close off over the eastern Great
Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. This feature will slowly drop
southeastward to near the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday and
effectively deepen the east coast trough. The axis of the trough
will sweep from west to east across our CWA on Tuesday with a
sharp but narrow ridge beginning to build in on Wednesday. At the
surface, expect another dry cold front to pass through the Tri-
state region Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid
50s away from the coast with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid
80s. Wednesday will be cooler with lows around 50 to the lower
50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 80 south.


.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Patchy fog will be possible north of the Florida line near sunrise.
The best chance for restrictive visibilities will be at KDHN and
KABY. VFR will return to all sites within an hour of sunrise and
persist through the TAF.


.Marine...

Onshore winds today will swing around to become offshore tonight
through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will elevate
slightly in the wake of another dry cold front Tuesday night.
At this time it looks like conditions will remain below headline
criteria.


.Fire Weather...

Although it will be dry for the next several days, minimum relative
humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   81  56  83  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  61  80  59  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        77  52  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        78  53  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      80  56  82  51  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  58  84  53  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  79  64  79  60  77 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS/HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KMLB 201443
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG AND TO THE
ESE OF KXMR...THOUGH IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SEEMS TO BE STARTING ITS
ADVERTISED NWD PIVOT (INTERESTING TO SEE THE FRONTOLYTIC "SHEDDING"
OF VORTICITY ALONG IT IN VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING). OVERNIGHT SHRA
AND SPRINKLES OVER VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD COS SAVE FOR A FEW SMALLER
CELLS JUST OFFSHORE MOSQUITO LAGOON-EDGEWATER. SOME CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING IN THIS AREA...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH 14Z TEMPS IN THE U70S AREAWIDE.

MORNING RAOBS FROM BOTH JAX/XMR SHOW THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
BELOW H75...WHILE SHALLOWER/MORE SPARSE MOISTURE EXISTS TO BOTH THE
SOUTH (MFL) AND WEST (TBW).

REST OF TODAY....FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA WILL
LIFT NORTH AND PULL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE U80S INLAND...AND M80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SOME BKN VFR CIGS BKN040-060 TIX-DAB THROUGH ABOUT
16Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBS SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 4FT
OFFSHORE UNDER A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND...VEERING FROM E TO
ESE-SE. 3-4FT SEAS LIKELY FALLING BACK FURTHER TO ~3FT BY TONIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT
-SHRA FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED
-KOMN THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...
PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KMLB 201443
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG AND TO THE
ESE OF KXMR...THOUGH IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SEEMS TO BE STARTING ITS
ADVERTISED NWD PIVOT (INTERESTING TO SEE THE FRONTOLYTIC "SHEDDING"
OF VORTICITY ALONG IT IN VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING). OVERNIGHT SHRA
AND SPRINKLES OVER VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD COS SAVE FOR A FEW SMALLER
CELLS JUST OFFSHORE MOSQUITO LAGOON-EDGEWATER. SOME CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING IN THIS AREA...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH 14Z TEMPS IN THE U70S AREAWIDE.

MORNING RAOBS FROM BOTH JAX/XMR SHOW THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
BELOW H75...WHILE SHALLOWER/MORE SPARSE MOISTURE EXISTS TO BOTH THE
SOUTH (MFL) AND WEST (TBW).

REST OF TODAY....FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA WILL
LIFT NORTH AND PULL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE U80S INLAND...AND M80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SOME BKN VFR CIGS BKN040-060 TIX-DAB THROUGH ABOUT
16Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBS SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 4FT
OFFSHORE UNDER A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND...VEERING FROM E TO
ESE-SE. 3-4FT SEAS LIKELY FALLING BACK FURTHER TO ~3FT BY TONIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT
-SHRA FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED
-KOMN THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...
PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KMLB 201443
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG AND TO THE
ESE OF KXMR...THOUGH IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SEEMS TO BE STARTING ITS
ADVERTISED NWD PIVOT (INTERESTING TO SEE THE FRONTOLYTIC "SHEDDING"
OF VORTICITY ALONG IT IN VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING). OVERNIGHT SHRA
AND SPRINKLES OVER VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD COS SAVE FOR A FEW SMALLER
CELLS JUST OFFSHORE MOSQUITO LAGOON-EDGEWATER. SOME CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING IN THIS AREA...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH 14Z TEMPS IN THE U70S AREAWIDE.

MORNING RAOBS FROM BOTH JAX/XMR SHOW THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
BELOW H75...WHILE SHALLOWER/MORE SPARSE MOISTURE EXISTS TO BOTH THE
SOUTH (MFL) AND WEST (TBW).

REST OF TODAY....FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA WILL
LIFT NORTH AND PULL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE U80S INLAND...AND M80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SOME BKN VFR CIGS BKN040-060 TIX-DAB THROUGH ABOUT
16Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBS SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 4FT
OFFSHORE UNDER A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND...VEERING FROM E TO
ESE-SE. 3-4FT SEAS LIKELY FALLING BACK FURTHER TO ~3FT BY TONIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT
-SHRA FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED
-KOMN THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...
PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KMLB 201443
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ALONG AND TO THE
ESE OF KXMR...THOUGH IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SEEMS TO BE STARTING ITS
ADVERTISED NWD PIVOT (INTERESTING TO SEE THE FRONTOLYTIC "SHEDDING"
OF VORTICITY ALONG IT IN VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING). OVERNIGHT SHRA
AND SPRINKLES OVER VOLUSIA/NRN BREVARD COS SAVE FOR A FEW SMALLER
CELLS JUST OFFSHORE MOSQUITO LAGOON-EDGEWATER. SOME CLOUDS STILL
LINGERING IN THIS AREA...OTHERWISE SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS FOR THE MOST PART...WITH 14Z TEMPS IN THE U70S AREAWIDE.

MORNING RAOBS FROM BOTH JAX/XMR SHOW THE REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE
BELOW H75...WHILE SHALLOWER/MORE SPARSE MOISTURE EXISTS TO BOTH THE
SOUTH (MFL) AND WEST (TBW).

REST OF TODAY....FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA WILL
LIFT NORTH AND PULL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH TEMPS WARMING TO THE U80S INLAND...AND M80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SOME BKN VFR CIGS BKN040-060 TIX-DAB THROUGH ABOUT
16Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT BUOY AND C-MAN OBS SHOW SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 4FT
OFFSHORE UNDER A GENTLE TO MODERATE ONSHORE WIND...VEERING FROM E TO
ESE-SE. 3-4FT SEAS LIKELY FALLING BACK FURTHER TO ~3FT BY TONIGHT.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH
A FEW UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT
-SHRA FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED
-KOMN THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...
PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS62 KKEY 201436
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1036 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS GENERATING
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BEEN PUSHED NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS AIR MASS CHANGE ALSO ERASED THE HEFTY INVERSION
THAT PREVENTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A SWATH OF
SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM CUBA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED ALMOST 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A BIT HIGHER...IN THE LOWER 80S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - SURFACE WINDS WILL HOLD AROUND
CURRENT SPEEDS...AS THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS FINALLY EXITS THE UPPER
KEYS. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT AS THE SITUATION WARRANTS. MUGGIER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A HIGH CELL CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 201436
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1036 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IS GENERATING
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS.
INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS HAS BEEN PUSHED NORTHWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS AIR MASS CHANGE ALSO ERASED THE HEFTY INVERSION
THAT PREVENTED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. A SWATH OF
SHOWERS SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM CUBA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND ARE NOW
MAKING THEIR WAY SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE CLIMBED ALMOST 10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A BIT HIGHER...IN THE LOWER 80S.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - SURFACE WINDS WILL HOLD AROUND
CURRENT SPEEDS...AS THE HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINAS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TREND DOWNWARDS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THIS ROUND OF SHOWERS FINALLY EXITS THE UPPER
KEYS. WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT AS THE SITUATION WARRANTS. MUGGIER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO A HIGH CELL CENTERED NEAR THE CAROLINA
COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KMFL 201338 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO START TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR ALLEY TODAY ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA
BREEZES COLLIDED. SO WILL KEEP A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALLIGATOR ALLEY FOR TODAY.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  73  84  72 /  10  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  76  84  75 /  20  20  40  30
MIAMI            85  75  84  75 /  20  20  50  30
NAPLES           86  73  82  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 201338 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO START TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR ALLEY TODAY ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA
BREEZES COLLIDED. SO WILL KEEP A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALLIGATOR ALLEY FOR TODAY.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  73  84  72 /  10  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  76  84  75 /  20  20  40  30
MIAMI            85  75  84  75 /  20  20  50  30
NAPLES           86  73  82  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KJAX 201333
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO
THE WRN ATLC WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND WILL COMBINE TO
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. OTHERWISE ACROSS NE FL/SE GA EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. TONIGHT...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
VSBYS LESS THAN 3 MILES POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL LATE TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ZFP/GRIDS YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOWER LEVEL STRATO-CU DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY
WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 4000-6000 FEET WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOST OF
THE DAY. LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT INLAND SITES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT AT
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING SE/S THIS EVENING THEN W/NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK TROF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  57  81  54 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  77  62  80  60 /  10  20  10   0
JAX  80  60  83  59 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  81  62  82  63 /  10  20  10   0
GNV  82  59  84  59 /  10  20  10   0
OCF  84  61  85  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 201333
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO
THE WRN ATLC WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND WILL COMBINE TO
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. OTHERWISE ACROSS NE FL/SE GA EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. TONIGHT...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
VSBYS LESS THAN 3 MILES POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL LATE TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ZFP/GRIDS YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOWER LEVEL STRATO-CU DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY
WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 4000-6000 FEET WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOST OF
THE DAY. LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT INLAND SITES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT AT
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING SE/S THIS EVENING THEN W/NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK TROF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  57  81  54 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  77  62  80  60 /  10  20  10   0
JAX  80  60  83  59 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  81  62  82  63 /  10  20  10   0
GNV  82  59  84  59 /  10  20  10   0
OCF  84  61  85  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 201333
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO
THE WRN ATLC WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND WILL COMBINE TO
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. OTHERWISE ACROSS NE FL/SE GA EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. TONIGHT...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
VSBYS LESS THAN 3 MILES POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL LATE TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ZFP/GRIDS YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOWER LEVEL STRATO-CU DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY
WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 4000-6000 FEET WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOST OF
THE DAY. LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT INLAND SITES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT AT
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING SE/S THIS EVENING THEN W/NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK TROF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  57  81  54 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  77  62  80  60 /  10  20  10   0
JAX  80  60  83  59 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  81  62  82  63 /  10  20  10   0
GNV  82  59  84  59 /  10  20  10   0
OCF  84  61  85  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KJAX 201333
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
930 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/TROF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST INTO
THE WRN ATLC WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND WILL COMBINE TO
BRING ISOLD SHOWERS TO THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. OTHERWISE ACROSS NE FL/SE GA EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPS AROUND 80 DEGREES. TONIGHT...EXPECT FAIR SKIES AS
WEAK DISTURBANCE PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION AND EXPECT
SEASONABLE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT NEAR 60 DEGREES. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH
VSBYS LESS THAN 3 MILES POSSIBLE ACROSS NE FL LATE TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ZFP/GRIDS YET.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOWER LEVEL STRATO-CU DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN THE VFR CATEGORY
WITH BROKEN CIGS AROUND 4000-6000 FEET WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOST OF
THE DAY. LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT ALONG WITH
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS AT INLAND SITES...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT AT
TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING SE/S THIS EVENING THEN W/NW
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WEAK TROF LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS. SEAS
GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  57  81  54 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  77  62  80  60 /  10  20  10   0
JAX  80  60  83  59 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  81  62  82  63 /  10  20  10   0
GNV  82  59  84  59 /  10  20  10   0
OCF  84  61  85  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH





000
FXUS62 KTBW 201246
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY MORE ZONAL IN NATURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.

TAKING A PEAK AT THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE...THE
COLUMN IS STILL VERY DRY. FAIRLY OBVIOUS WHY OUR SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONE CAN MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR A SUBTLE
BOUNDARY FEATURE/WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY REALLY IS JUST A SURFACE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT...AND SHOULD TEND TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALSO LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT THROUGH TODAY
AS THE LOW REMAIN IN PLACE...AND THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A
FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN
OUR WINDS ONSHORE AT THE BEACHES.

REST OF TODAY...ANOTHER QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN
FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4
NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES
REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES "ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH.
LIKELY TO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST
WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE
UPPER 70S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOW...JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF
MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL
CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN
MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY SARASOTA TO
SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND
SOUTHWARD. INHERITED FORECAST HAS CHANCE 30-40% POPS FOR THESE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EVALUATE THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT IF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVIATE
MUCH WITH THIS NEXT RUN...RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT
DOWN SOUTH. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES ARE RAISED...ACCUMULATIONS STILL
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAS A
BIT OF PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THESE PATCHES ARE QUICKLY
LIFTING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND. EXPECTING GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COASTLINE WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FEET UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND MAY INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  70  85  69 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  88  70  84  71 /   0  10  40  30
GIF  86  69  85  68 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  85  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  20
BKV  87  59  85  59 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  85  72  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN





000
FXUS62 KTBW 201246
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
845 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
QUICKLY RIDGES WELL NORTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THE FLOW
THEN DIVES BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
REGION. A POTENT SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW DROPPING OUT OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ACT TO EVEN FURTHER AMPLIFY THE NORTHERN
STREAM AS IT CARVES OUT A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
THIS TIME TOMORROW. THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY MORE ZONAL IN NATURE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...BUT WILL BECOME MORE
CYCLONIC IN NATURE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AMPLIFYING
EASTERN TROUGH TAKES FORM.

TAKING A PEAK AT THE MORNING 20/12Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE...THE
COLUMN IS STILL VERY DRY. FAIRLY OBVIOUS WHY OUR SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR THIS MORNING. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE
MID-LEVELS ARE RUNNING 35C...TO AS MUCH AS 50C. THE CALCULATED PW
VALUE WAS 0.69" WHICH IS GETTING DOWN TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER. SO...YA...ITS DRY.

AT THE SURFACE...OUR REGION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY
FLOW BETWEEN A 1020MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/BAY OF CAMPECHE. ONE CAN MAKE AN ARGUMENT FOR A SUBTLE
BOUNDARY FEATURE/WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR. THIS BOUNDARY REALLY IS JUST A SURFACE DEWPOINT
GRADIENT...AND SHOULD TEND TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE DAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALSO LOOKS AS THOUGH IT WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT THROUGH TODAY
AS THE LOW REMAIN IN PLACE...AND THE HIGH CENTER DRIFTS FURTHER EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING GRADIENT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST A
FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN
OUR WINDS ONSHORE AT THE BEACHES.

REST OF TODAY...ANOTHER QUIET AND BENIGN FORECAST AND TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER. A DRY ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN AND VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN
FREE. WITH PLENTY OF INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY...AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MIX OUT TO THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S FROM I-4
NORTHWARD AND MIDDLE/UPPER 80S FURTHER SOUTH. THESE TEMPERATURES
REPRESENT HIGHS A FEW DEGREES "ABOVE NORMAL" FOR OCTOBER 20TH.
LIKELY TO SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS ONSHORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NATURE COAST
WHERE NEARSHORE SATELLITE DERIVED SST VALUES HAVE COOLED INTO THE
UPPER 70S.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN GULF/FL PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT AND DEEP
LAYER SURGE OF MOISTURE RETURN UP INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FL
PENINSULA. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITHIN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
WILL BE WATCHING A DECENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE RESULTING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A BROAD ZONE OF Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENT WILL BECOME COINCIDENT WITHIN THE REGION OF BEST MOISTURE
RETURN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA TO SUPPORT SHOWER
CHANCES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NOW...JUST
HOW FAR NORTH THE SHOWERS GET WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXTENT OF
MOISTURE RETURN...SINCE THE SYNOPTIC LIFTING MECHANISMS WILL
CERTAINLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS WOULD SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCES FOR ADEQUATE COLUMN
MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SAY SARASOTA TO
SEBRING...WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES DOWN TOWARD FORT MYERS AND
SOUTHWARD. INHERITED FORECAST HAS CHANCE 30-40% POPS FOR THESE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL EVALUATE THE 12Z GUIDANCE FOR
THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT IF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEVIATE
MUCH WITH THIS NEXT RUN...RAIN CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A BIT
DOWN SOUTH. EVEN IF RAIN CHANCES ARE RAISED...ACCUMULATIONS STILL
LOOK TO BE LIGHT AS NONE OF THE LIFTING MECHANISMS ARE PARTICULARLY
STRONG...JUST SIMPLY ADDITIVE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RETURNING SHOWERS TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING VFR ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. WAS A
BIT OF PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE...BUT THESE PATCHES ARE QUICKLY
LIFTING WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING. THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS DIRECTIONS
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND TRIES TO MIGRATE INLAND. EXPECTING GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE COASTLINE WHERE A SEA BREEZE WILL SET UP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS...SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 2 FEET UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF A NORTHEAST DIRECTION AND MAY INCREASE TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA...DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FOR
THE SOUTHERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  70  85  69 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  88  70  84  71 /   0  10  40  30
GIF  86  69  85  68 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  85  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  20
BKV  87  59  85  59 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  85  72  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...MROCZKA
MARINE...WYNN






000
FXUS62 KKEY 201129
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
729 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 201129
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
729 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 201129
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
729 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DEVANAS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 201129
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
729 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. PASSING ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
AND LOCATION OF SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TERMINAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECASTS THROUGH THE FORECAST DURATION. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS...AND GUSTY AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...DEVANAS

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 200847
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
450 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON
AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
80 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP...TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ENTER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DELIVER SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS IS PROJECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAWK CHANNEL THURSDAY DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAWK CHANNEL...AND
FLORIDA BAY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
20/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA SHOULD GRADUALLY MEANDER
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT EYW...BUT MTH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DOUBT. MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME WITH THESE
SHOWERS...BUT IFR SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. SHOWERS WILL THEN
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN 2007...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 5.02 INCHES WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. SINCE RAINFALL RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871...THIS
VALUE IS THE 9TH HIGHEST DAILY TOTAL THAT HAS BEEN RECORDED AT KEY
WEST DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85 76 84 76 / 40 60 60 50
MARATHON  85 76 84 76 / 40 60 60 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE.............MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 200847
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
450 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.
WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON
AVERAGE...ARE EAST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
80 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY...THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF DEEP...TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ENTER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...BEFORE POSSIBLY TURNING TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY DELIVER SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A DRIER AIR MASS IS PROJECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL
KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HAWK CHANNEL THURSDAY DUE TO SUSTAINED EAST
SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAWK CHANNEL...AND
FLORIDA BAY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
20/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY
LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA SHOULD GRADUALLY MEANDER
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT EYW...BUT MTH IS
SIGNIFICANTLY IN DOUBT. MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME WITH THESE
SHOWERS...BUT IFR SHOULD BE BRIEF IN NATURE. SHOWERS WILL THEN
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN 2007...THE DAILY RECORD RAINFALL OF 5.02 INCHES WAS
RECORDED AT KEY WEST. SINCE RAINFALL RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871...THIS
VALUE IS THE 9TH HIGHEST DAILY TOTAL THAT HAS BEEN RECORDED AT KEY
WEST DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  85 76 84 76 / 40 60 60 50
MARATHON  85 76 84 76 / 40 60 60 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE.............MSB

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 200833
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
433 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK FRONT STILL HANGING ON ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...THE ONLY RAIN
NOTED OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN A CONVERGENT BAND OVER ON THE EAST COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. FOR TODAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AMPLIFY WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH A DRY FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FOR TODAY...THOUGH STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY
RAIN SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH IT BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OTHER PLAYER IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY
WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF...WITH DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE STATE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY AND DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...WITH THIS POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
CAPTURING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSELY TOGETHER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO HIGHER ALBEIT STILL BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FEATURE THE MODELS ARE LATCHING
ONTO ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE BAHAMAS IF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AND RAIN FREE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AT COASTAL SITES AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION FORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH WILL
BECOME LIGHTER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN ONSHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION FORMS. WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  70  85  69 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  88  70  84  71 /   0  10  40  30
GIF  86  69  85  68 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  85  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  20
BKV  87  59  85  59 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  85  72  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 200833
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
433 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK FRONT STILL HANGING ON ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. WITH A FAIRLY DRY AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE...THE ONLY RAIN
NOTED OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN A CONVERGENT BAND OVER ON THE EAST COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY. FOR TODAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL AMPLIFY WHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD WITH A DRY FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FOR TODAY...THOUGH STILL NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY
RAIN SO THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AGAIN...NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED WITH IT BUT THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OTHER PLAYER IN OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY
WILL BE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF...WITH DEEP MOISTURE EXTENDING EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE STATE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP RAIN IN THE FORECAST SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY AND DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIODS.
THAT SAID...GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES AND LACK OF
A STRONG MODEL CONSENSUS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...CONFIDENCE
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTING INTO THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY...WITH THIS POSITIVE TILTED
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTO THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE ONE THAT THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED
CAPTURING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF HAVE TRENDED VERY CLOSELY TOGETHER WITH THEIR HANDLING OF
THIS FEATURE...LEADING TO HIGHER ALBEIT STILL BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.

AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM BAY OF
CAMPECHE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS WILL WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE MAIN FEATURE THE MODELS ARE LATCHING
ONTO ALONG THIS TROUGH...IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWEST CARRIBEAN BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAIGHTS INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. IT CERTAINLY DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE A
BIG RAIN MAKER FOR THIS PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED OVER THE BAHAMAS IF THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...SO WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST OPTIMISTIC AND RAIN FREE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR TODAY BUT WILL TURN ONSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON AT COASTAL SITES AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION FORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH TODAY...THOUGH WILL
BECOME LIGHTER IN THE AFTERNOON AND TURN ONSHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION FORMS. WINDS WITH SPEEDS OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN WILL INCREASE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TODAY BUT RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID-WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  70  85  69 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  88  70  84  71 /   0  10  40  30
GIF  86  69  85  68 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  85  67  83  68 /   0  10  20  20
BKV  87  59  85  59 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  85  72  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA







000
FXUS62 KMFL 200812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  73  84  72 /  10  10  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  76  84  75 /  20  20  40  30
MIAMI            85  75  84  75 /  20  20  50  30
NAPLES           86  73  82  72 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 200812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  73  84  72 /  10  10  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  76  84  75 /  20  20  40  30
MIAMI            85  75  84  75 /  20  20  50  30
NAPLES           86  73  82  72 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMLB 200754
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...ONGOING THIN LINE OF SHOWERS STREAMING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE COAST IS APPROXIMATELY MARKING THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ALONG A ESE-WNW ORIENTED LINE
FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CAPE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY.

THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTHWARDS AND BECOME MORE N-S
ORIENTED THAN LAST EVENING. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS EVENTUALLY REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG
THE NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COASTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW REACHING INTO INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-OMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA
FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN
THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 200754
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...ONGOING THIN LINE OF SHOWERS STREAMING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE COAST IS APPROXIMATELY MARKING THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ALONG A ESE-WNW ORIENTED LINE
FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CAPE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY.

THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTHWARDS AND BECOME MORE N-S
ORIENTED THAN LAST EVENING. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS EVENTUALLY REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG
THE NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COASTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW REACHING INTO INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-OMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA
FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN
THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 200754
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
354 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...ONGOING THIN LINE OF SHOWERS STREAMING FROM THE
ATLANTIC INTO THE COAST IS APPROXIMATELY MARKING THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING.
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ALONG A ESE-WNW ORIENTED LINE
FROM OVER THE ATLANTIC INTO THE CAPE AND ACROSS SOUTHERN VOLUSIA
COUNTY.

THIS BOUNDARY HAS ALREADY LIFTED NORTHWARDS AND BECOME MORE N-S
ORIENTED THAN LAST EVENING. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOR THIS
BAND OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARDS ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH WITH
MOST OF THE SHOWERS EVENTUALLY REMAINING OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP ISOLD-SCT LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST ALONG
THE NORTH BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COASTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
A FEW REACHING INTO INTERIOR VOLUSIA COUNTY.

OUTSIDE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL REACH
INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAND TONIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS.

TUE...A MID LAYER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND MOISTURE
RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM SRN OSCEOLA/SRN BREVARD SOUTH TO
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RETURN WILL EXIST FROM OKEECHOBEE COUNTY TO MARTIN
AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES WHERE ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE
FAVORED. FURTHER NORTH EXTENT OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MAKES
CONVECTIVE PROBABILITIES SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL GO WITH A SLGT CHC
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WITH SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT WITH THE RR QUAD OF AN
80 KT JET AND 12KM NAM SHOWS SOME DISCRETE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S IN
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS.

TUE NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL FL AND PUSH TWD
SRN SECTIONS WITH A DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO NRN LAKE AND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
THE TREASURE COAST. WILL KEEP EVENING CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED TO
SRN AREAS THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED-THU...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TWD THE SE STATES AS A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WED TWD LAKE
OKEECHOBEE ON THU. NORTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NE BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY WITH DEEP DRYING ACROSS NRN SECTIONS. CLOSER TO THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT DEEP MOISTURE WILL RESIDE AND WILL KEEP LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR MID WEEK.
00Z GFS INDICATES TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE YUCATAN WILL BEGIN
TO EJECT EASTWARD BY THU AFTN. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

FRI-SAT...ON FRIDAY THE MAIN CLOSED LOW AND TROUGH ACROSS THE NE
STATES WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER S/W ON ITS BACK SIDE
DROPS SE TWD THE CAROLINAS. 00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES SOME SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES EAST OF THE YUCATAN WITH
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW TRACK WILL BE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH. EVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO MOISTURE MAY WRAP AROUND THE NW
SIDE OF THE ELONGATED DEEP MOISTURE AREA ACROSS FAR S FL IN THE
BAHAMAS AS THE LOW TRACKS E OR ENE. WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ACROSS THE FAR SRN AREAS WHERE SOME ATLC
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITH E AND THEN NE TO THE NORTH OF ANY
POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT AREA. FOR NRN AREAS...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE SOME WITH LATER
FORECASTS. SEE LATEST 5 DAY GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM
NHC FOR THE LATEST INFO ON THIS SYSTEM.

SUN-MON...00Z GFS/ECMWF INDICATES ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE ARE AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL
FL. NE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WITH ONLY SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES
EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR THIS MORNING THROUGH 12Z IN ALL
LOCATIONS EXCEPT EAST OF KTIX-KDED-OMN. LINE OF ISOLD-WDLY SCT -SHRA
FROM ATLC CROSSING COAST AFFECTING AREAS EAST OF KTIX-KDED-KOMN
THROUGH 16Z WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS FL020-030. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND CAPE
CANAVERAL WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL...EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING
SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10KTS. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS OVERNIGHT BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS
THE FRONT MOVES BACK SOUTH.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE WITH UP TO 5FT OVER THE GULF
STREAM. DOMINANT PERIODS 9-11SEC...WITH 6-7SEC OVER GULF STREAM.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE WATERS WED INTO WED NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE N
TO NE INTO LATE WEEK WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AT LEAST SCEC LEVELS BY
THU INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  63  85  65  81 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  66  86  67  84 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  84  69  84 /  10  20  10  20
VRB  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  20
LEE  67  86  66  84 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  65  86  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  67  86  68  84 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  66  85  68  84 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....VOLKMER







000
FXUS62 KTAE 200716
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
316 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A northern stream trough will dig through the Tennessee Valley, and
merge with a southern stream anomaly over the Southeast today. With
deep layer dry air in place, this will do little but to generate
some thin cirrus clouds across the region this afternoon.

The effect of the trough will be to weaken surface ridging, and
possibly break it into two circulations: one over the western
Atlantic, and one over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will place
our region in a very weak low-level convergent zone. Couple that
with a weak surface trough moving through the northeast Gulf and a
surge in low-level moisture around the Atlantic ridge, and we may be
able to squeeze out a few shallow showers in-and-around the
Forgotten Coast and the northeast Gulf.

Otherwise, expect another seasonable afternoon with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and no rain (outside of the aforementioned
area).

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

An upper low is forecast to close off over the eastern Great
Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. This feature will slowly drop
southeastward to near the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday and
effectively deepen the east coast trough. The axis of the trough
will sweep from west to east across our CWA on Tuesday with a
sharp but narrow ridge beginning to build in on Wednesday. At the
surface, expect another dry cold front to pass through the Tri-
state region Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid
50s away from the coast with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid
80s. Wednesday will be cooler with lows around 50 to the lower
50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 80 south.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Patchy fog will be possible north of the Florida line near sunrise.
The best chance for restrictive visibilities will be at KDHN and
KABY. VFR will return to all sites within an hour of sunrise and
persist through the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Onshore winds today will swing around to become offshore tonight
through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will elevate
slightly in the wake of another dry cold front Tuesday night.
At this time it looks like conditions will remain below headline
criteria.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although it will be dry for the next several days, minimum relative
humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  56  83  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  61  80  59  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        76  52  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  53  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      79  56  82  51  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  58  84  53  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  80  64  79  60  77 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 200716
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
316 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A northern stream trough will dig through the Tennessee Valley, and
merge with a southern stream anomaly over the Southeast today. With
deep layer dry air in place, this will do little but to generate
some thin cirrus clouds across the region this afternoon.

The effect of the trough will be to weaken surface ridging, and
possibly break it into two circulations: one over the western
Atlantic, and one over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will place
our region in a very weak low-level convergent zone. Couple that
with a weak surface trough moving through the northeast Gulf and a
surge in low-level moisture around the Atlantic ridge, and we may be
able to squeeze out a few shallow showers in-and-around the
Forgotten Coast and the northeast Gulf.

Otherwise, expect another seasonable afternoon with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and no rain (outside of the aforementioned
area).

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

An upper low is forecast to close off over the eastern Great
Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. This feature will slowly drop
southeastward to near the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday and
effectively deepen the east coast trough. The axis of the trough
will sweep from west to east across our CWA on Tuesday with a
sharp but narrow ridge beginning to build in on Wednesday. At the
surface, expect another dry cold front to pass through the Tri-
state region Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid
50s away from the coast with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid
80s. Wednesday will be cooler with lows around 50 to the lower
50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 80 south.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Patchy fog will be possible north of the Florida line near sunrise.
The best chance for restrictive visibilities will be at KDHN and
KABY. VFR will return to all sites within an hour of sunrise and
persist through the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Onshore winds today will swing around to become offshore tonight
through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will elevate
slightly in the wake of another dry cold front Tuesday night.
At this time it looks like conditions will remain below headline
criteria.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although it will be dry for the next several days, minimum relative
humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  56  83  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  61  80  59  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        76  52  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  53  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      79  56  82  51  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  58  84  53  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  80  64  79  60  77 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 200716
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
316 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A northern stream trough will dig through the Tennessee Valley, and
merge with a southern stream anomaly over the Southeast today. With
deep layer dry air in place, this will do little but to generate
some thin cirrus clouds across the region this afternoon.

The effect of the trough will be to weaken surface ridging, and
possibly break it into two circulations: one over the western
Atlantic, and one over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will place
our region in a very weak low-level convergent zone. Couple that
with a weak surface trough moving through the northeast Gulf and a
surge in low-level moisture around the Atlantic ridge, and we may be
able to squeeze out a few shallow showers in-and-around the
Forgotten Coast and the northeast Gulf.

Otherwise, expect another seasonable afternoon with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and no rain (outside of the aforementioned
area).

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

An upper low is forecast to close off over the eastern Great
Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. This feature will slowly drop
southeastward to near the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday and
effectively deepen the east coast trough. The axis of the trough
will sweep from west to east across our CWA on Tuesday with a
sharp but narrow ridge beginning to build in on Wednesday. At the
surface, expect another dry cold front to pass through the Tri-
state region Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid
50s away from the coast with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid
80s. Wednesday will be cooler with lows around 50 to the lower
50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 80 south.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Patchy fog will be possible north of the Florida line near sunrise.
The best chance for restrictive visibilities will be at KDHN and
KABY. VFR will return to all sites within an hour of sunrise and
persist through the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Onshore winds today will swing around to become offshore tonight
through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will elevate
slightly in the wake of another dry cold front Tuesday night.
At this time it looks like conditions will remain below headline
criteria.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although it will be dry for the next several days, minimum relative
humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  56  83  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  61  80  59  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        76  52  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  53  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      79  56  82  51  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  58  84  53  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  80  64  79  60  77 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD




000
FXUS62 KTAE 200716
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
316 AM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

A northern stream trough will dig through the Tennessee Valley, and
merge with a southern stream anomaly over the Southeast today. With
deep layer dry air in place, this will do little but to generate
some thin cirrus clouds across the region this afternoon.

The effect of the trough will be to weaken surface ridging, and
possibly break it into two circulations: one over the western
Atlantic, and one over the lower Mississippi Valley. This will place
our region in a very weak low-level convergent zone. Couple that
with a weak surface trough moving through the northeast Gulf and a
surge in low-level moisture around the Atlantic ridge, and we may be
able to squeeze out a few shallow showers in-and-around the
Forgotten Coast and the northeast Gulf.

Otherwise, expect another seasonable afternoon with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s and no rain (outside of the aforementioned
area).

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

An upper low is forecast to close off over the eastern Great
Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. This feature will slowly drop
southeastward to near the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday and
effectively deepen the east coast trough. The axis of the trough
will sweep from west to east across our CWA on Tuesday with a
sharp but narrow ridge beginning to build in on Wednesday. At the
surface, expect another dry cold front to pass through the Tri-
state region Tuesday. Lows tonight will be in the lower to mid
50s away from the coast with max temps Tuesday in the lower to mid
80s. Wednesday will be cooler with lows around 50 to the lower
50s and highs ranging from the mid 70s north to around 80 south.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Tuesday]

Patchy fog will be possible north of the Florida line near sunrise.
The best chance for restrictive visibilities will be at KDHN and
KABY. VFR will return to all sites within an hour of sunrise and
persist through the TAF.

&&

.Marine...

Onshore winds today will swing around to become offshore tonight
through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will elevate
slightly in the wake of another dry cold front Tuesday night.
At this time it looks like conditions will remain below headline
criteria.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although it will be dry for the next several days, minimum relative
humidity values should remain just above critical thresholds.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  56  83  52  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   79  61  80  59  76 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        76  52  80  50  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  53  82  49  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      79  56  82  51  77 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    84  58  84  53  80 /  10  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  80  64  79  60  77 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD




000
FXUS62 KJAX 200550
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
150 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH TODAY AS
INVERTED TROUGH IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER NE
FL TODAY AND THEN INTO SE GA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTEDAYS READINGS WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COASTAL TROUGHING WILL EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
IN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL NE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S. FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS OF 75-80 FOR SE
GA/NE FL WITH LOWER 80S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE A
CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER
THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A WAVE OR A CLOSED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WEEK...MIGRATING THE
FEATURE E/NE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A
POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW...BUT A MINIMUM AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. WILL
BEGIN A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERING
NORTH CENTRAL FL SATURDAY...NORTH TO NE FL BY SUNDAY. WILL KEEP SE
GA MAINLY DRY SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THIS MORNING. STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT(SCT-BKN) WILL INCREASE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
MAINLY TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED ALONG WITH DIMINISHING SWELLS. WEAK INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS TODAY...BECOMING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS/SEAS BRIEFLY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND LOW RISK TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  57  81  54 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  76  62  80  60 /  10  20  10   0
JAX  80  60  83  59 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  79  62  82  63 /  10  20  10   0
GNV  82  59  84  59 /  10  20  10   0
OCF  84  61  85  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/







000
FXUS62 KJAX 200550
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
150 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014


.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FL COAST WILL MAINTAIN AN
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH TODAY AS
INVERTED TROUGH IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER NE
FL TODAY AND THEN INTO SE GA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE CLOSE TO YESTEDAYS READINGS WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COASTAL TROUGHING WILL EXIT TO THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NW TO SE TUESDAY...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
IN AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL NE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH READINGS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S. FOR WEDNESDAY...EXPECT HIGHS OF 75-80 FOR SE
GA/NE FL WITH LOWER 80S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL. EXPECT LOWS IN THE
50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S COAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR THE WEEKEND...LOOKS LIKE A
CHANGE IS IN THE OFFING...AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER
THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A WAVE OR A CLOSED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WEEK...MIGRATING THE
FEATURE E/NE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF A
POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW...BUT A MINIMUM AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER
WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. WILL
BEGIN A TREND TOWARD THE WETTER...WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIP ENTERING
NORTH CENTRAL FL SATURDAY...NORTH TO NE FL BY SUNDAY. WILL KEEP SE
GA MAINLY DRY SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THIS MORNING. STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS AROUND 3-4KFT(SCT-BKN) WILL INCREASE TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
MAINLY TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DECREASED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED ALONG WITH DIMINISHING SWELLS. WEAK INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY RESULTING IN LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS TODAY...BECOMING OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS/SEAS BRIEFLY ON
WEDNESDAY BUT NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND LOW RISK TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  79  57  81  54 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  76  62  80  60 /  10  20  10   0
JAX  80  60  83  59 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  79  62  82  63 /  10  20  10   0
GNV  82  59  84  59 /  10  20  10   0
OCF  84  61  85  62 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/






000
FXUS62 KMFL 200525
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
125 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND ALMOST CALM WINDS THIS MORNING..BY MIDDAY...WINDS
SHOULD BE ESE AT 10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO
TRANSITION NAPLES TO SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A FEW
MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  73  85  72 /  10  20  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  75  85  75 /  10  30  50  50
MIAMI            86  75  85  74 /  20  40  50  50
NAPLES           86  71  85  71 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 200525
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
125 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND ALMOST CALM WINDS THIS MORNING..BY MIDDAY...WINDS
SHOULD BE ESE AT 10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO
TRANSITION NAPLES TO SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A FEW
MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  73  85  72 /  10  20  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  75  85  75 /  10  30  50  50
MIAMI            86  75  85  74 /  20  40  50  50
NAPLES           86  71  85  71 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...71/JE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 200216
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1016 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Current fcst is well on track, and only minor tweaks were made.
Under clear to mostly clear skies and fairly dry air, low temps
should bottom out in the upper 40s to the lower 50s away from the
coast.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Tuesday] VFR conditions with light winds and sct
cirrus are expected to prevail at the terminals through the
period. There is a slight chance of MVFR Vis at VLD late tonight,
but kept the Vis no lower than 6SM for this package.

&&

.Prev Discussion [238 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday through Tuesday night]...
The mean upper trough east of the area will reamplify during the
short range as a shortwave dives southeast and affects the area on
Monday. The lack of significant moisture return should still allow
for mainly dry conditions, although some of the local CAM runs
indicate a few isolated showers may be possible along the coast.
With such a dry airmass in place right now, the official forecast
will limit PoPs over land to 20 percent right along the coast
around Apalachicola and Saint George Island for Monday. The
airmass will modify slightly with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s
on Monday becoming lower to mid 80s on Tuesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.


.Marine...
A brief easterly surge is possible tonight over the eastern waters.
Thereafter, winds and seas will be minimal through Tuesday, before
northeasterly flow increases again mid-week.


.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will be fairly low over the
next several days, it will not be quite dry enough to cause any
fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  81  56  85  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   59  80  61  82  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
Dothan        50  78  52  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        48  79  52  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  81  56  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    55  84  58  85  54 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  60  79  62  81  59 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 200216
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1016 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Current fcst is well on track, and only minor tweaks were made.
Under clear to mostly clear skies and fairly dry air, low temps
should bottom out in the upper 40s to the lower 50s away from the
coast.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Tuesday] VFR conditions with light winds and sct
cirrus are expected to prevail at the terminals through the
period. There is a slight chance of MVFR Vis at VLD late tonight,
but kept the Vis no lower than 6SM for this package.

&&

.Prev Discussion [238 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday through Tuesday night]...
The mean upper trough east of the area will reamplify during the
short range as a shortwave dives southeast and affects the area on
Monday. The lack of significant moisture return should still allow
for mainly dry conditions, although some of the local CAM runs
indicate a few isolated showers may be possible along the coast.
With such a dry airmass in place right now, the official forecast
will limit PoPs over land to 20 percent right along the coast
around Apalachicola and Saint George Island for Monday. The
airmass will modify slightly with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s
on Monday becoming lower to mid 80s on Tuesday.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.


.Marine...
A brief easterly surge is possible tonight over the eastern waters.
Thereafter, winds and seas will be minimal through Tuesday, before
northeasterly flow increases again mid-week.


.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will be fairly low over the
next several days, it will not be quite dry enough to cause any
fire weather concerns.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  81  56  85  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   59  80  61  82  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
Dothan        50  78  52  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        48  79  52  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  81  56  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    55  84  58  85  54 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  60  79  62  81  59 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...DVD/GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KKEY 200159
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
959 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH HAS SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINA COASTS WHILE MAINLY LOWER PRESSURE RESIDES IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AS A RESULT...AND JUST IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ALL
OBSERVING STATIONS HAVE TURNED TO THE EAST. BREEZES REMAIN
GENTLE...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT AS MASS FIELDS RESPOND TO
THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SHOW
ACCELERATING UPSTREAM CU- FIELDS...EAST OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. THE 00Z
RAOB OBSERVATION FROM KMFL INDICATES WHAT WE EXPECT OVERNIGHT...AN
EROSION OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN COMBINATION WITH INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. MEANWHILE...OUR 00Z SOUNDING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
SINCE LAST FRIDAY MORNING.

.UPDATE...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE AFTER
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LESS INHIBITION AS THE
EASTERLIES INCREASE. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN DAYS...RAIN WILL RETURN TO
THE FORECAST. THE CURRENT PACKAGE HAS THIS SCENARIO HANDLED WELL.

&&

.MARINE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT...THEN ENTER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
MONDAY. THEREAFTER...A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL MOVE EASTWARDS TOWARDS FLORIDA AND THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z TAF...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS. STRENGTHENING EASTERLY BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER SCT CLOUD BASES TO 020. THE BEST WINDOW FOR
PRECIPITATION INDUCED MVFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE FROM 10 TO 16Z.
NEVERTHELESS...FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES WILL BE BRIEF.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KJAX 200127
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
927 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE 00Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG CAP BETWEEN 900 AND
700 MB WITH MOISTURE NOTED AT THE INVERSION LEVEL WHERE STRATO- CU
FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP SPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLAGLER COAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS INDICATED
BY THE RAPID REFRESH AND SREF MODELS. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS LOW POPS
GOING THERE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. A RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT
FROM NEAR 50 ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NE FL
TO MID 60S ALONG THE NE FL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING
FEW-SCT CUMULUS INLAND WITH BASES 3.5-5 KFT ACROSS THE FL EAST
COAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS FL
TERMINALS AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE...WITH MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL FL AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY. THESE
MECHANISMS WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF PROLONGED MVFR TO
POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS TO GNV THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER 12Z
MON...CIGS WILL LIFT TO PREVAILING VFR WITH BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT JAX...CRG...AND VQQ LIFTING
NORTHWARD TO SSI THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH SOME EROSION DUE TO
HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE
FOR COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS MOVES EAST. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NE FL COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. WILL HAVE WINDS NORTHEAST
TO EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS.

RIP CURRENTS: SWELLS HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE THIS EVE. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE A
MODERATE RISK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  59  77  62  81 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  57  80  61  83 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  65  80  64  82 /  10  20  20  10
GNV  57  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  59  84  61  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ABE/AW











000
FXUS62 KJAX 200127
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
927 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE 00Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG CAP BETWEEN 900 AND
700 MB WITH MOISTURE NOTED AT THE INVERSION LEVEL WHERE STRATO- CU
FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP SPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLAGLER COAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS INDICATED
BY THE RAPID REFRESH AND SREF MODELS. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS LOW POPS
GOING THERE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. A RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT
FROM NEAR 50 ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NE FL
TO MID 60S ALONG THE NE FL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING
FEW-SCT CUMULUS INLAND WITH BASES 3.5-5 KFT ACROSS THE FL EAST
COAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS FL
TERMINALS AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE...WITH MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL FL AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY. THESE
MECHANISMS WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF PROLONGED MVFR TO
POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS TO GNV THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER 12Z
MON...CIGS WILL LIFT TO PREVAILING VFR WITH BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT JAX...CRG...AND VQQ LIFTING
NORTHWARD TO SSI THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH SOME EROSION DUE TO
HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE
FOR COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS MOVES EAST. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NE FL COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. WILL HAVE WINDS NORTHEAST
TO EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS.

RIP CURRENTS: SWELLS HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE THIS EVE. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE A
MODERATE RISK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  59  77  62  81 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  57  80  61  83 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  65  80  64  82 /  10  20  20  10
GNV  57  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  59  84  61  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ABE/AW











000
FXUS62 KJAX 200127
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
927 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE 00Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG CAP BETWEEN 900 AND
700 MB WITH MOISTURE NOTED AT THE INVERSION LEVEL WHERE STRATO- CU
FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP SPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLAGLER COAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS INDICATED
BY THE RAPID REFRESH AND SREF MODELS. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS LOW POPS
GOING THERE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. A RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT
FROM NEAR 50 ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NE FL
TO MID 60S ALONG THE NE FL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING
FEW-SCT CUMULUS INLAND WITH BASES 3.5-5 KFT ACROSS THE FL EAST
COAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS FL
TERMINALS AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE...WITH MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL FL AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY. THESE
MECHANISMS WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF PROLONGED MVFR TO
POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS TO GNV THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER 12Z
MON...CIGS WILL LIFT TO PREVAILING VFR WITH BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT JAX...CRG...AND VQQ LIFTING
NORTHWARD TO SSI THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH SOME EROSION DUE TO
HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE
FOR COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS MOVES EAST. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NE FL COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. WILL HAVE WINDS NORTHEAST
TO EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS.

RIP CURRENTS: SWELLS HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE THIS EVE. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE A
MODERATE RISK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  59  77  62  81 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  57  80  61  83 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  65  80  64  82 /  10  20  20  10
GNV  57  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  59  84  61  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ABE/AW











000
FXUS62 KJAX 200127
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
927 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...THE 00Z JAX SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG CAP BETWEEN 900 AND
700 MB WITH MOISTURE NOTED AT THE INVERSION LEVEL WHERE STRATO- CU
FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP SPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE FLAGLER COAST BY LATE TONIGHT AS INDICATED
BY THE RAPID REFRESH AND SREF MODELS. WILL KEEP PREVIOUS LOW POPS
GOING THERE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. A RANGE IN TEMPS TONIGHT
FROM NEAR 50 ACROSS INLAND SE GA TO MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND NE FL
TO MID 60S ALONG THE NE FL COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING
FEW-SCT CUMULUS INLAND WITH BASES 3.5-5 KFT ACROSS THE FL EAST
COAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS FL
TERMINALS AS A COASTAL TROUGH FORMS OFFSHORE...WITH MODEL BUFR
SOUNDINGS INDICATING SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT WORKING NORTHWARD FROM
CENTRAL FL AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THIS ENERGY. THESE
MECHANISMS WOULD BRING THE BEST CHANCE OF PROLONGED MVFR TO
POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS TO GNV THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER 12Z
MON...CIGS WILL LIFT TO PREVAILING VFR WITH BKN CIGS 4-5 KFT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT JAX...CRG...AND VQQ LIFTING
NORTHWARD TO SSI THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH SOME EROSION DUE TO
HEATING.

&&

.MARINE...WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE
FOR COMBINED SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET. OTHERWISE NOT MUCH CHANGE TONIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE WATERS MOVES EAST. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NE FL COAST AND COASTAL WATERS. WILL HAVE WINDS NORTHEAST
TO EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS.

RIP CURRENTS: SWELLS HAVE DECREASED ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO EXPIRE THIS EVE. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE A
MODERATE RISK FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  59  77  62  81 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  57  80  61  83 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  65  80  64  82 /  10  20  20  10
GNV  57  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  59  84  61  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/ABE/AW











000
FXUS62 KMLB 200127 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS
EVENING NICELY TRACED OUT BY A CONVERGENT CLOUD LINE OVER THE ATLC.
WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE VEERING MORE EASTERLY SO THE TROUGH
WILL STALL OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONVERGENT CLOUD LINE OR STREAMER
OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY CONTAINS SOME SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE
ATLC. A FEW OF THESE WILL LIKELY CROSS THE BREVARD COAST AND
EVENTUALLY THE VOLUSIA COAST BY MORNING AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SE.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE INTERIOR GIVEN LIGHT SFC WINDS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE. MINS SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 5-8F HIGHER THAN THIS
MORNING WITH READINGS BY SUNRISE IN THE MID 60S...WITH SOME UPPER
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO VEER AROUND TO SERLY...ALBEIT
REMAINING LIGHT. THE WEAK REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT BACK
NWD...WITH ASCD MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. COULD BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF ORLANDO. THUS...HAVE
KEPT THE SMALL RAIN CHANCE THERE. MAX TEMPS WILL AVG ABOUT A CAT
WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SOME SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR WILL BE PSBL 08Z-12Z
MCO-SFB WWD TO ISM-LEE. ALSO...INDICATING BKN035 (BARELY VFR)
MLB-DAB WITHIN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE SFC NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL TROUGH. ISOLD SHRA WILL CROSS THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/MON...NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE NORTH LEG
(VOLUSIA) WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE...10-15 KNOTS AND 3-4
FEET. LIGHT E TO SE WINDS BY MON AFTERNOON WITH A DOMINANT SWELL
COMPONENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3-4FT RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  83  66  85 /  20  30  20  10
MCO  64  86  66  87 /  10  10  10  20
MLB  68  84  68  84 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  67  86  68  86 /  10  10  10  30
LEE  64  86  66  87 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  64  86  67  87 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  66  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  20
FPR  66  85  66  85 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SHARP






000
FXUS62 KMLB 200127 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS
EVENING NICELY TRACED OUT BY A CONVERGENT CLOUD LINE OVER THE ATLC.
WINDS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE VEERING MORE EASTERLY SO THE TROUGH
WILL STALL OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONVERGENT CLOUD LINE OR STREAMER
OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY CONTAINS SOME SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER THE
ATLC. A FEW OF THESE WILL LIKELY CROSS THE BREVARD COAST AND
EVENTUALLY THE VOLUSIA COAST BY MORNING AS FLOW VEERS TO THE SE.
WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG FOR THE INTERIOR GIVEN LIGHT SFC WINDS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE. MINS SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 5-8F HIGHER THAN THIS
MORNING WITH READINGS BY SUNRISE IN THE MID 60S...WITH SOME UPPER
60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO VEER AROUND TO SERLY...ALBEIT
REMAINING LIGHT. THE WEAK REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT BACK
NWD...WITH ASCD MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. COULD BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH AND EAST OF ORLANDO. THUS...HAVE
KEPT THE SMALL RAIN CHANCE THERE. MAX TEMPS WILL AVG ABOUT A CAT
WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE MID-UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SOME SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR WILL BE PSBL 08Z-12Z
MCO-SFB WWD TO ISM-LEE. ALSO...INDICATING BKN035 (BARELY VFR)
MLB-DAB WITHIN VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ABOVE THE SFC NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL TROUGH. ISOLD SHRA WILL CROSS THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/MON...NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE NORTH LEG
(VOLUSIA) WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT. ELSEWHERE...10-15 KNOTS AND 3-4
FEET. LIGHT E TO SE WINDS BY MON AFTERNOON WITH A DOMINANT SWELL
COMPONENT KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3-4FT RANGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  83  66  85 /  20  30  20  10
MCO  64  86  66  87 /  10  10  10  20
MLB  68  84  68  84 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  67  86  68  86 /  10  10  10  30
LEE  64  86  66  87 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  64  86  67  87 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  66  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  20
FPR  66  85  66  85 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/SHARP







000
FXUS62 KTBW 200112
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 00Z TBW SOUNDING
CONTINUED TO SHOW THE DRY ABOVE 850 MB AS PWAT VALUES CONTINUE AROUND
3/4 OF AN INCH. BUMPED UP WINDS A TAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AS LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOLID SCEC
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE
ZONES 20 TO 60NM OUT. MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED WEATHER-WISE TOMORROW
AS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT AREA TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE MENTIONED AT LAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A 3MB GRADIENT SUPPORTING SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE CAUTIONARY RANGE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS (20-60NM) AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...SO WILL EXPAND CAUTIONARY HEADLINES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  85  69  86 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  66  87  69  84 /   0  10  10  30
GIF  64  85  66  86 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  65  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  20
BKV  58  86  59  86 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  71  86  72  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 200112
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 00Z TBW SOUNDING
CONTINUED TO SHOW THE DRY ABOVE 850 MB AS PWAT VALUES CONTINUE AROUND
3/4 OF AN INCH. BUMPED UP WINDS A TAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AS LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOLID SCEC
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE
ZONES 20 TO 60NM OUT. MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED WEATHER-WISE TOMORROW
AS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT AREA TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE MENTIONED AT LAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A 3MB GRADIENT SUPPORTING SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE CAUTIONARY RANGE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS (20-60NM) AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...SO WILL EXPAND CAUTIONARY HEADLINES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  85  69  86 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  66  87  69  84 /   0  10  10  30
GIF  64  85  66  86 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  65  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  20
BKV  58  86  59  86 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  71  86  72  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 200112
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 00Z TBW SOUNDING
CONTINUED TO SHOW THE DRY ABOVE 850 MB AS PWAT VALUES CONTINUE AROUND
3/4 OF AN INCH. BUMPED UP WINDS A TAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AS LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOLID SCEC
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE
ZONES 20 TO 60NM OUT. MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED WEATHER-WISE TOMORROW
AS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT AREA TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE MENTIONED AT LAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A 3MB GRADIENT SUPPORTING SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE CAUTIONARY RANGE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS (20-60NM) AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...SO WILL EXPAND CAUTIONARY HEADLINES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  85  69  86 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  66  87  69  84 /   0  10  10  30
GIF  64  85  66  86 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  65  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  20
BKV  58  86  59  86 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  71  86  72  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KTBW 200112
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
912 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR ALOFT
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. 00Z TBW SOUNDING
CONTINUED TO SHOW THE DRY ABOVE 850 MB AS PWAT VALUES CONTINUE AROUND
3/4 OF AN INCH. BUMPED UP WINDS A TAD OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AS LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOLID SCEC
CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OFFSHORE
ZONES 20 TO 60NM OUT. MORE OF THE SAME EXPECTED WEATHER-WISE TOMORROW
AS THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE ONCE AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AT AREA TERMINALS.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE MENTIONED AT LAL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO MENTION SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL SUPPORT A
NORTHEAST TO EAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH A 3MB GRADIENT SUPPORTING SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THE CAUTIONARY RANGE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS (20-60NM) AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LATEST HI-RES MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS...SO WILL EXPAND CAUTIONARY HEADLINES SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL OFFSHORE WATERS IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATE.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS AND 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE GRADIENT AGAIN TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  85  69  86 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  66  87  69  84 /   0  10  10  30
GIF  64  85  66  86 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  65  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  20
BKV  58  86  59  86 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  71  86  72  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...57/MCMICHAEL







000
FXUS62 KMFL 200014
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
814 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW PASSING CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN
GREAT SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH TREND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE ESE AT
10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO TRANSITION NAPLES TO
SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ATHOUGH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 192329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH TREND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE ESE AT
10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO TRANSITION NAPLES TO
SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ATHOUGH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 192329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH TREND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE ESE AT
10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO TRANSITION NAPLES TO
SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ATHOUGH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 192329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH TREND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE ESE AT
10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO TRANSITION NAPLES TO
SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ATHOUGH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 192329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH TREND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE ESE AT
10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO TRANSITION NAPLES TO
SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ATHOUGH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 192329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH TREND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE ESE AT
10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO TRANSITION NAPLES TO
SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ATHOUGH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 192329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH TREND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE ESE AT
10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO TRANSITION NAPLES TO
SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ATHOUGH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMLB 191927
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WEATHER COULD GET INTERESTING BY WEEK`S END...

OVERNIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IDENTIFIED BY A FEW CU LINES AND
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DEW PTS OVER/OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL
SLOW AS IT CONTINUES TO OOZE SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE
WEAK BOUNDARY...SLACKENING ONSHORE WINDS OVER LAND...COUPLED WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND SHALLOW MOISTURE...DECIDED TO ADD SOME PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOR THE INTERIOR. MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING...IT SHOULD BE
FAIRLY SHALLOW/SPOTTY. MINS SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT 5-8F HIGHER THAN
THIS MORNING WITH READINGS BY SUNRISE IN THE M60S...WITH SOME U60S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

MONDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START TO VEER AROUND TO SERLY...ALBEIT
REMAINING LIGHT. THE WEAK REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT BACK
NWD...WITH ASCD MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. COULD BE A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE...MAINLY DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...OVER THE N-CTRL AND NERN COUNTIES.
THUS...HAVE KEPT THE SMALL RAIN CHANCE THERE. MAX TEMPS WILL AVG
ABOUT A CAT WARMER THAN TODAY...IN THE M-U80S.

MON NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STILL WEST OF FLORIDA. VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ALONG WITH LIMITED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT LEADS TO LOW RAIN CHANCES...LESS THAN 15
PERCENT...FOR THE OVERNIGHT MONDAY FORECAST. LOWS IN THE LOW AND MID
60S AND WARMER AT THE BEACHES COCOA BEACH SOUTH.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...GFS STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME
EXTENDING EAST FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BAY OF CAMPECHE AREAS LINKS
UP WITH THE MOISTURE ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID
ATLANTIC HIGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING WEST TO EAST OVER
THE MOISTURE PLUME AND DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS CENTER OF THE FORECAST AREA THEN CHANCE POP FAR
SOUTHERN BREVARD ADJACENT OSCEOLA COUNTY AND SOUTH BASED ON BETTER
DEPTH OF MOISTURE...HEATING AND WIND CONVERGENCE/SEA BREEZES OVER
THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS. TUE NIGHT SOUTHERN POP LOOKS RATHER
HIGH AT 55 PERCENT PLUS GIVEN THAT THE GFS IS PAINTING A "BULLSEYE"
VORTICITY PATTERN MOVING OVERHEAD AND A DECREASING UPPER LEVEL JET
PATTERN OVERTOP THE AREA. TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SUGGESTING AN
ISENTROPIC LIFT SCENARIO SETTING UP WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL
FLOW GOING OVER AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CANT ARGUE WITH
THE MAV`S MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S AND THE DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE/DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NW
CARIBBEAN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MID WEEK. LARGE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY...AND NOW EVEN WHAT HAS BEEN THE MORE NORTHWARD GFS
SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY STALLING OUT MORE OVER SOUTH...RATHER THAN
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS MEANS THAT THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE POOL THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT TAPS INTO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINS CONFINED MORE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE THE RAIN/NO RAIN LINE WILL SET UP...AND IT MAY MOVE EACH
DAY TUES-THURS DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 DRY WITH BREVARD/OSCEOLA
LOOKING TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN. WHILE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER SOUTH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
TREASURE COAST FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THE
BOUNDARY SLIPS MORE NORTHWARDS.

FRIDAY...MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR THE TAIL
END OF NEXT WEEK IN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER PATTERN
ACROSS THE US AND ANY ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NW CARIB.
STILL LEANING TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORE IN LINE WITH
WHAT HAS BEEN THE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ECMWF.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR. SOME SPOTTY MVFR MIFG/BR WILL BE PSBL 08Z-12Z
MCO-SFB WWD TO ISM-LEE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/MON...WILL TAKE DOWN THE CAUTIONARY STMT AS THE NE SURGE
APPEARS TO HAVE DAMPENED OUT SOME. WINDS LOOK TO GET NO HIGHER THAN
15KT AND 3-4FT TO PERHAPS 5FT WELL OFFSHORE TONIGHT. LIGHT E TO SE
WINDS BY MON AFTERNOON WITH A DOMINANT SWELL COMPONENT KEEPING SEAS
IN THE 3-4FT RANGE.

TUE-WED...WEAKENING/REMANENT BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN WATERS MON NIGHT
SHIFTS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AS A WEAK COOL FRONT TUE THEN CLEARS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE WED. LIGHT WIND FIELD OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUE BECOMES
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEER IN RESPONSE TO
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN THE PENINSULA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC ON
MONDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF THE CAPE AND
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE AND THE BOUNDARY.
EXPECT TO SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS OVER ALL THE
WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FLOW ON TUES AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION. SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS...BUT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUES NIGHT WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING NORTHEAST 10-15KTS BY WED AFTERNOON.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE MON...BECOMING 2-3FT OVER
ALL THE WATERS TUES AND WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  83  66  85 /  20  30  20  10
MCO  64  86  66  87 /  10  10  10  20
MLB  68  84  68  84 /  10  10  10  20
VRB  67  86  68  86 /  10  10  10  30
LEE  64  86  66  87 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  64  86  67  87 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  66  86  68  87 /  10  10  10  20
FPR  66  85  66  85 /  10  10   0  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KKEY 191919
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS IN THE PROCESS OF
BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. NO SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE...AND SKY COVER REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOSED INTO THE MID 80S.

FORECAST - SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS EVENING
AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BECOMES FULLY ASSIMILATED INTO THE LARGER
HIGH FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND AS THE EFFECTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DAY
TIME HEATING WEARS OFF. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SWATH OF MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AROUND LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
60S TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW...AND DEW POINTS
SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 70 BY DAYBREAK.

THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST NEAR
THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD.
AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
RELAX AND VEER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS REMAINING NEAR BY...AND INHIBITION WILL BE LOW OR
NON EXISTENT. WITH THAT SAID...A WEAKENING FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT FOR GENERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MOISTURE CLIMBING THROUGH THE
LOW 70S.

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FROM MID WEEK AND
BEYOND. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NONTROPICAL LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR QUITE SOME TIME
NOW...BUT FINALLY WE ARE OBSERVING TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND GROW
IN SIZE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH THE SUPPORT OF A COUPLE OF
PASSING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. AN ORGANIZED AND ACCELERATING LOW LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE...AND PWAT VALUES MOVE
WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ALL POINT TOWARDS A PERIOD OR TWO OF MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
EXACTLY HOW THIS LOW DEVELOPS...HOW IT INTERACTS WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND WHERE IT AND ITS CONVECTION GOES. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE LATE WEDNESDAY PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND TREND DOWNWARDS MOVING INTO WEEKS END. ALSO...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW. ONLY TIME CAN MAKE THIS PICTURE
CLEARER.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS INCREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL
RELAX OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL MEANDER IN THIS RANGE
INTO MID WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST DUE TO AN
EXPECTED DEEPENING LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OR TWO OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 20/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFTER 20/12Z MAY
LEAD TO HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  85  76  84 / -  20 50 50
MARATHON  75  85  76  84 / -  20 50 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 191919
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS IN THE PROCESS OF
BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. NO SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE...AND SKY COVER REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOSED INTO THE MID 80S.

FORECAST - SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS EVENING
AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BECOMES FULLY ASSIMILATED INTO THE LARGER
HIGH FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND AS THE EFFECTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DAY
TIME HEATING WEARS OFF. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SWATH OF MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AROUND LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
60S TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW...AND DEW POINTS
SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 70 BY DAYBREAK.

THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST NEAR
THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD.
AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
RELAX AND VEER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS REMAINING NEAR BY...AND INHIBITION WILL BE LOW OR
NON EXISTENT. WITH THAT SAID...A WEAKENING FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT FOR GENERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MOISTURE CLIMBING THROUGH THE
LOW 70S.

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FROM MID WEEK AND
BEYOND. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NONTROPICAL LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR QUITE SOME TIME
NOW...BUT FINALLY WE ARE OBSERVING TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND GROW
IN SIZE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH THE SUPPORT OF A COUPLE OF
PASSING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. AN ORGANIZED AND ACCELERATING LOW LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE...AND PWAT VALUES MOVE
WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ALL POINT TOWARDS A PERIOD OR TWO OF MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
EXACTLY HOW THIS LOW DEVELOPS...HOW IT INTERACTS WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND WHERE IT AND ITS CONVECTION GOES. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE LATE WEDNESDAY PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND TREND DOWNWARDS MOVING INTO WEEKS END. ALSO...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW. ONLY TIME CAN MAKE THIS PICTURE
CLEARER.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS INCREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL
RELAX OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL MEANDER IN THIS RANGE
INTO MID WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST DUE TO AN
EXPECTED DEEPENING LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OR TWO OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 20/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFTER 20/12Z MAY
LEAD TO HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  85  76  84 / -  20 50 50
MARATHON  75  85  76  84 / -  20 50 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 191919
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS IN THE PROCESS OF
BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. NO SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE...AND SKY COVER REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOSED INTO THE MID 80S.

FORECAST - SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS EVENING
AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BECOMES FULLY ASSIMILATED INTO THE LARGER
HIGH FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND AS THE EFFECTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DAY
TIME HEATING WEARS OFF. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SWATH OF MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AROUND LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
60S TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW...AND DEW POINTS
SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 70 BY DAYBREAK.

THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST NEAR
THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD.
AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
RELAX AND VEER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS REMAINING NEAR BY...AND INHIBITION WILL BE LOW OR
NON EXISTENT. WITH THAT SAID...A WEAKENING FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT FOR GENERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MOISTURE CLIMBING THROUGH THE
LOW 70S.

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FROM MID WEEK AND
BEYOND. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NONTROPICAL LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR QUITE SOME TIME
NOW...BUT FINALLY WE ARE OBSERVING TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND GROW
IN SIZE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH THE SUPPORT OF A COUPLE OF
PASSING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. AN ORGANIZED AND ACCELERATING LOW LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE...AND PWAT VALUES MOVE
WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ALL POINT TOWARDS A PERIOD OR TWO OF MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
EXACTLY HOW THIS LOW DEVELOPS...HOW IT INTERACTS WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND WHERE IT AND ITS CONVECTION GOES. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE LATE WEDNESDAY PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND TREND DOWNWARDS MOVING INTO WEEKS END. ALSO...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW. ONLY TIME CAN MAKE THIS PICTURE
CLEARER.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS INCREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL
RELAX OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL MEANDER IN THIS RANGE
INTO MID WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST DUE TO AN
EXPECTED DEEPENING LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OR TWO OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 20/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFTER 20/12Z MAY
LEAD TO HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  85  76  84 / -  20 50 50
MARATHON  75  85  76  84 / -  20 50 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 191919
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IS IN THE PROCESS OF
BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS REMAIN QUITE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. NO SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN POSSIBLE...AND SKY COVER REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOSED INTO THE MID 80S.

FORECAST - SURFACE WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS EVENING
AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH BECOMES FULLY ASSIMILATED INTO THE LARGER
HIGH FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND AS THE EFFECTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DAY
TIME HEATING WEARS OFF. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS THE LEADING EDGE OF A SWATH OF MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD AROUND LOWER LEVEL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOWS TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE
60S TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW...AND DEW POINTS
SHOULD PUSH ABOVE 70 BY DAYBREAK.

THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL EXIT THE EAST COAST NEAR
THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD.
AS A RESULT...LOCAL WINDS WILL PEAK ON MONDAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
RELAX AND VEER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH DUE THE LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS REMAINING NEAR BY...AND INHIBITION WILL BE LOW OR
NON EXISTENT. WITH THAT SAID...A WEAKENING FLOW WILL PROVIDE A
CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT FOR GENERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MOISTURE CLIMBING THROUGH THE
LOW 70S.

A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FROM MID WEEK AND
BEYOND. ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NONTROPICAL LOW WILL DEEPEN IN THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR QUITE SOME TIME
NOW...BUT FINALLY WE ARE OBSERVING TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND GROW
IN SIZE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH THE SUPPORT OF A COUPLE OF
PASSING UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. AN ORGANIZED AND ACCELERATING LOW LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH INCREASING CYCLONIC CURVATURE...AND PWAT VALUES MOVE
WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES ALL POINT TOWARDS A PERIOD OR TWO OF MUCH HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
EXACTLY HOW THIS LOW DEVELOPS...HOW IT INTERACTS WITH PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...AND WHERE IT AND ITS CONVECTION GOES. FOR NOW
WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FROM THE LATE WEDNESDAY PERIOD THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND TREND DOWNWARDS MOVING INTO WEEKS END. ALSO...THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW. ONLY TIME CAN MAKE THIS PICTURE
CLEARER.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS INCREASE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND LOCAL WINDS WILL
RELAX OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL MEANDER IN THIS RANGE
INTO MID WEEK...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST DUE TO AN
EXPECTED DEEPENING LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIX OF CAUTIONS AND
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A PERIOD OR TWO OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 20/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFTER 20/12Z MAY
LEAD TO HIGHER STRATOCUMULUS COVER AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  85  76  84 / -  20 50 50
MARATHON  75  85  76  84 / -  20 50 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 191919
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WETTER CONDITIONS COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 191919
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WETTER CONDITIONS COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KJAX 191842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER COOL DOWN
TONIGHT. NORTHERN AND INTERIOR COUNTIES WILL TOUCH JUST BELOW 50
WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE. AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KY PUSHES EAST...A FRONTAL ZONE
TO OUR SOUTH WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND COULD CAUSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL MEANDER
OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST MONDAY. THERE MAY ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THIS FEATURE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
SOUTH OF DUVAL COUNTY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER ST JOHNS COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN DUVAL COUNTY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
REGION MON NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROF PULLS FURTHER EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TUESDAY...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SUWANEE VALLEY AND INTO
THE INTERIOR OF SE GEORGIA. THE NAM IS STRONGEST AND MORE
MOIST...FURNISHING A FEW SHOWERS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT
DRIER AND LESS SHARP WITH THE WAVE. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER
LAND AREAS TUESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE CONUS MIDWEEK WILL EXIT
WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROPICAL POOL
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AS
FRONT BOUNDARY LINGERS DOWN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA.
THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SE GA/NE FL. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...NEARBY FRONTAL PRESENCE AT GNV AND MOISTURE MOVING BACK
IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD CAUSE SOME
5SM-6SM BR AROUND 10Z-12Z. EXPECT VFR ELSEWHERE..AND GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDING AROUND 00Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND DOWNWARD. WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS IN MOST AREAS AND SEAS 4
TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCEC HEADLINES FOR THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE AREA.


RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS
AND HEIGHTENED NE WINDS/WAVES IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS AFFECT
FROM SWELLS MARKEDLY DIMINISH AND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  59  77  62  81 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  57  80  61  83 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  64  80  64  82 /  10  20  20  10
GNV  56  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  59  84  61  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/SANDRIK/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 191842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER COOL DOWN
TONIGHT. NORTHERN AND INTERIOR COUNTIES WILL TOUCH JUST BELOW 50
WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE. AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KY PUSHES EAST...A FRONTAL ZONE
TO OUR SOUTH WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND COULD CAUSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL MEANDER
OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST MONDAY. THERE MAY ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THIS FEATURE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
SOUTH OF DUVAL COUNTY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER ST JOHNS COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN DUVAL COUNTY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
REGION MON NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROF PULLS FURTHER EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TUESDAY...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SUWANEE VALLEY AND INTO
THE INTERIOR OF SE GEORGIA. THE NAM IS STRONGEST AND MORE
MOIST...FURNISHING A FEW SHOWERS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT
DRIER AND LESS SHARP WITH THE WAVE. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER
LAND AREAS TUESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE CONUS MIDWEEK WILL EXIT
WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROPICAL POOL
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AS
FRONT BOUNDARY LINGERS DOWN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA.
THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SE GA/NE FL. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...NEARBY FRONTAL PRESENCE AT GNV AND MOISTURE MOVING BACK
IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD CAUSE SOME
5SM-6SM BR AROUND 10Z-12Z. EXPECT VFR ELSEWHERE..AND GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDING AROUND 00Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND DOWNWARD. WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS IN MOST AREAS AND SEAS 4
TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCEC HEADLINES FOR THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE AREA.


RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS
AND HEIGHTENED NE WINDS/WAVES IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS AFFECT
FROM SWELLS MARKEDLY DIMINISH AND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  59  77  62  81 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  57  80  61  83 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  64  80  64  82 /  10  20  20  10
GNV  56  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  59  84  61  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/SANDRIK/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 191842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER COOL DOWN
TONIGHT. NORTHERN AND INTERIOR COUNTIES WILL TOUCH JUST BELOW 50
WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE. AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KY PUSHES EAST...A FRONTAL ZONE
TO OUR SOUTH WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND COULD CAUSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL MEANDER
OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST MONDAY. THERE MAY ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THIS FEATURE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
SOUTH OF DUVAL COUNTY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER ST JOHNS COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN DUVAL COUNTY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
REGION MON NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROF PULLS FURTHER EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TUESDAY...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SUWANEE VALLEY AND INTO
THE INTERIOR OF SE GEORGIA. THE NAM IS STRONGEST AND MORE
MOIST...FURNISHING A FEW SHOWERS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT
DRIER AND LESS SHARP WITH THE WAVE. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER
LAND AREAS TUESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE CONUS MIDWEEK WILL EXIT
WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROPICAL POOL
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AS
FRONT BOUNDARY LINGERS DOWN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA.
THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SE GA/NE FL. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...NEARBY FRONTAL PRESENCE AT GNV AND MOISTURE MOVING BACK
IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD CAUSE SOME
5SM-6SM BR AROUND 10Z-12Z. EXPECT VFR ELSEWHERE..AND GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDING AROUND 00Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND DOWNWARD. WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS IN MOST AREAS AND SEAS 4
TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCEC HEADLINES FOR THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE AREA.


RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS
AND HEIGHTENED NE WINDS/WAVES IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS AFFECT
FROM SWELLS MARKEDLY DIMINISH AND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  59  77  62  81 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  57  80  61  83 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  64  80  64  82 /  10  20  20  10
GNV  56  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  59  84  61  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/SANDRIK/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 191842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
242 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...ANOTHER COOL DOWN
TONIGHT. NORTHERN AND INTERIOR COUNTIES WILL TOUCH JUST BELOW 50
WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE
COASTLINE. AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER KY PUSHES EAST...A FRONTAL ZONE
TO OUR SOUTH WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AND COULD CAUSE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. AS A RESULT...A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL MEANDER
OFFSHORE THE NE FL COAST MONDAY. THERE MAY ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE POOLING NEAR THIS FEATURE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
SOUTH OF DUVAL COUNTY MONDAY. ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS
FAVORABLE BUT WON`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OVER ST JOHNS COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN DUVAL COUNTY. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF
REGION MON NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROF PULLS FURTHER EAST OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...FOR TUESDAY...A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IS FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SUWANEE VALLEY AND INTO
THE INTERIOR OF SE GEORGIA. THE NAM IS STRONGEST AND MORE
MOIST...FURNISHING A FEW SHOWERS. THE GFS/ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT
DRIER AND LESS SHARP WITH THE WAVE. WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER
LAND AREAS TUESDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE CONUS MIDWEEK WILL EXIT
WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TROPICAL POOL
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AS
FRONT BOUNDARY LINGERS DOWN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA.
THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SE GA/NE FL. NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...NEARBY FRONTAL PRESENCE AT GNV AND MOISTURE MOVING BACK
IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS COULD CAUSE SOME
5SM-6SM BR AROUND 10Z-12Z. EXPECT VFR ELSEWHERE..AND GUSTY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDING AROUND 00Z.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND DOWNWARD. WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS IN MOST AREAS AND SEAS 4
TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH SCEC HEADLINES FOR THE
ENTIRE MARINE AREA THRU EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL START TO
IMPROVE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE AREA.


RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS
AND HEIGHTENED NE WINDS/WAVES IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE MODERATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS AFFECT
FROM SWELLS MARKEDLY DIMINISH AND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  49  79  56  81 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  59  77  62  81 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  57  80  61  83 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  64  80  64  82 /  10  20  20  10
GNV  56  83  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  59  84  61  84 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

CORDERO/SANDRIK/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KTAE 191838
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
238 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A seasonably cool and dry airmass will remain in place through
tonight with surface high pressure centered just north of the
area. Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 40s
across the north to the mid to upper 50s across the south.

.Short Term [Monday through Tuesday night]...
The mean upper trough east of the area will reamplify during the
short range as a shortwave dives southeast and affects the area on
Monday. The lack of significant moisture return should still allow
for mainly dry conditions, although some of the local CAM runs
indicate a few isolated showers may be possible along the coast.
With such a dry airmass in place right now, the official forecast
will limit PoPs over land to 20 percent right along the coast
around Apalachicola and Saint George Island for Monday. The
airmass will modify slightly with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s
on Monday becoming lower to mid 80s on Tuesday.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail with winds
generally less than 10 knots.

&&

.Marine...
A brief easterly surge is possible tonight over the eastern waters.
Thereafter, winds and seas will be minimal through Tuesday, before
northeasterly flow increases again mid-week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will be fairly low over the
next several days, it will not be quite dry enough to cause any
fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  81  56  85  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   59  80  61  82  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
Dothan        50  78  52  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        48  79  52  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  81  56  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    55  84  58  85  54 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  60  79  62  81  59 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD





000
FXUS62 KTAE 191838
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
238 PM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A seasonably cool and dry airmass will remain in place through
tonight with surface high pressure centered just north of the
area. Overnight lows are expected to range from the upper 40s
across the north to the mid to upper 50s across the south.

.Short Term [Monday through Tuesday night]...
The mean upper trough east of the area will reamplify during the
short range as a shortwave dives southeast and affects the area on
Monday. The lack of significant moisture return should still allow
for mainly dry conditions, although some of the local CAM runs
indicate a few isolated showers may be possible along the coast.
With such a dry airmass in place right now, the official forecast
will limit PoPs over land to 20 percent right along the coast
around Apalachicola and Saint George Island for Monday. The
airmass will modify slightly with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s
on Monday becoming lower to mid 80s on Tuesday.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain mostly below 20
percent with temperatures near average during the day and a few
degrees below average at night with the dry air in place. At the
end of the period, the guidance diverges with the 19/00z ECMWF
cutting off an upper low with unsettled conditions while the GFS
keeps things dry. The ensemble spread is large, and a 20 PoP was
introduced for Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail with winds
generally less than 10 knots.

&&

.Marine...
A brief easterly surge is possible tonight over the eastern waters.
Thereafter, winds and seas will be minimal through Tuesday, before
northeasterly flow increases again mid-week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Although afternoon relative humidities will be fairly low over the
next several days, it will not be quite dry enough to cause any
fire weather concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   53  81  56  85  53 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   59  80  61  82  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
Dothan        50  78  52  81  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        48  79  52  83  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      52  81  56  83  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    55  84  58  85  54 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  60  79  62  81  59 /  10  20  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KMFL 191806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

ACTUALLY SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
DAYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING WEST. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT APF ARE FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST, AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT APF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASESTHROUGH TOMORROW, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY VCSH
MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  72  83 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
MIAMI            73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
NAPLES           68  84  72  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

ACTUALLY SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
DAYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING WEST. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT APF ARE FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST, AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT APF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASESTHROUGH TOMORROW, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY VCSH
MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  72  83 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
MIAMI            73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
NAPLES           68  84  72  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

ACTUALLY SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
DAYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING WEST. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT APF ARE FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST, AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT APF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASESTHROUGH TOMORROW, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY VCSH
MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  72  83 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
MIAMI            73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
NAPLES           68  84  72  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

ACTUALLY SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
DAYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING WEST. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT APF ARE FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST, AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT APF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASESTHROUGH TOMORROW, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY VCSH
MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  72  83 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
MIAMI            73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
NAPLES           68  84  72  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191806 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

ACTUALLY SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
DAYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING WEST. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT APF ARE FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST, AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT APF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY VCSH
MENTION ATTM FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  72  83 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
MIAMI            73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
NAPLES           68  84  72  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191806 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

ACTUALLY SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
DAYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING WEST. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT APF ARE FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST, AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT APF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY VCSH
MENTION ATTM FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  72  83 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
MIAMI            73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
NAPLES           68  84  72  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191806 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

ACTUALLY SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
DAYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING WEST. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT APF ARE FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST, AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT APF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY VCSH
MENTION ATTM FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  72  83 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
MIAMI            73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
NAPLES           68  84  72  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191806 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

ACTUALLY SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
DAYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING WEST. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT APF ARE FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST, AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT APF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY VCSH
MENTION ATTM FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  72  83 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
MIAMI            73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
NAPLES           68  84  72  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KTBW 191800
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR. A CUMULUS FIELD HAD DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONT
DUE TO MOISTURE POOLING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM (T0NIGHT AND MONDAY)...
LONG WAVE TROF ALONG EASTERN U.S. MOVED OFFSHORE WHILE SECONDARY
TROF IN NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY 00Z TUESDAY. DYNAMICS REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE IS
TRYING TO RETURN ON TUESDAY AND CURRENT LONG TERM FORECAST HAS A
HANDLE ON THAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR CONTINUE
TO BE 3-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NORMAL HIGH/LOW TEMPS ELSEWHERE.

.PREVIOUS LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDIVIDUAL
MODEL RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY LEAVES MUCH TO BE DESIRED. THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE
FEATURE CLOSING OFF NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
FEATURE THEN LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED BETWEEN THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL WEST-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO LIFT
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THAT SAID...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL PASS BY PERIODICALLY...ALLOWING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO TEMPORARILY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GOMEX...BUT THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
EVOLUTION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIODS.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO LIFT
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ATMOSPHERE TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION BUT PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE 10-13Z INLAND AREAS (KLAL).

&&

.MARINE...
INTERACTION BETWEEN A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA
AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN OUTER
COASTAL ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY AS
THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS
LESS THAN 3 FEET THROUGH MID WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY
AND MOST OF MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS AS LOWEST HUMIDITY 40 PERCENT INLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  85  69  86 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  66  88  69  84 /   0  10  10  30
GIF  64  85  66  86 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  65  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  20
BKV  58  86  60  86 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  71  85  72  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE







000
FXUS62 KKEY 191443
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1043 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A WEAK PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH
CELL MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS ARE
LIGHT...AND WHILE TRYING TO BECOME MORE PREVAILING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST...REMAIN VARIABLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 60S WITH STABLE
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 WITH VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL
INCREASINGLY FEEL THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE HIGH CELL
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DAY TIME
HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL FIGHT THIS INCREASING TREND. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE CONTINUED DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS. NO UPDATE IS NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FIRM UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SPRAWLING HIGH
CELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NIL THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO FIRST
PERIOD WIND TRANSITIONAL WORDING IN THE MORNING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 20/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 191443
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1043 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A WEAK PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH
CELL MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS ARE
LIGHT...AND WHILE TRYING TO BECOME MORE PREVAILING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST...REMAIN VARIABLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 60S WITH STABLE
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 WITH VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL
INCREASINGLY FEEL THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE HIGH CELL
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DAY TIME
HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL FIGHT THIS INCREASING TREND. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE CONTINUED DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS. NO UPDATE IS NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FIRM UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SPRAWLING HIGH
CELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NIL THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO FIRST
PERIOD WIND TRANSITIONAL WORDING IN THE MORNING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 20/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 191443
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1043 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A WEAK PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH
CELL MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS ARE
LIGHT...AND WHILE TRYING TO BECOME MORE PREVAILING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST...REMAIN VARIABLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 60S WITH STABLE
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 WITH VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL
INCREASINGLY FEEL THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE HIGH CELL
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DAY TIME
HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL FIGHT THIS INCREASING TREND. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE CONTINUED DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS. NO UPDATE IS NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FIRM UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SPRAWLING HIGH
CELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NIL THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO FIRST
PERIOD WIND TRANSITIONAL WORDING IN THE MORNING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 20/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 191443
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1043 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A WEAK PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE HIGH
CELL MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS ARE
LIGHT...AND WHILE TRYING TO BECOME MORE PREVAILING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST...REMAIN VARIABLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 60S WITH STABLE
AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 80 WITH VERY
LITTLE CLOUD COVER ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL
INCREASINGLY FEEL THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OF THE HIGH CELL
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST. HOWEVER...DAY TIME
HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL FIGHT THIS INCREASING TREND. DAY TIME
HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE CONTINUED DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS. NO UPDATE IS NECESSARY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY FIRM UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SPRAWLING HIGH
CELL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN NIL THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO FIRST
PERIOD WIND TRANSITIONAL WORDING IN THE MORNING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 20/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 191433
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1033 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
AT THE SURFACE...A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LATE
LAST NIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL FL. THIS FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO STALL TODAY AND COULD BE THE FOCUS OF A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING. FOR
TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THIS
PASSING COLD FRONT THEREFORE EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR
ASIDE FROM SOME SPORADIC CIRRUS...AND WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PREVIOUS SCA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM. WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND
DOWNWARD. WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS IN MOST AREAS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE...WE WILL STILL GO WITH SCEC FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH TODAY DUE TO
LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS AND INCREASING NE WINDS/WAVES IN WAKE
OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  51  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  72  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  75  58  80  61 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  76  63  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  79  56  83  60 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  82  59  84  61 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SANDRIK/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 191433
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1033 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
AT THE SURFACE...A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LATE
LAST NIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL FL. THIS FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO STALL TODAY AND COULD BE THE FOCUS OF A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING. FOR
TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THIS
PASSING COLD FRONT THEREFORE EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR
ASIDE FROM SOME SPORADIC CIRRUS...AND WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PREVIOUS SCA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM. WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND
DOWNWARD. WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS IN MOST AREAS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE...WE WILL STILL GO WITH SCEC FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH TODAY DUE TO
LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS AND INCREASING NE WINDS/WAVES IN WAKE
OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  51  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  72  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  75  58  80  61 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  76  63  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  79  56  83  60 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  82  59  84  61 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SANDRIK/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 191433
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1033 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
AT THE SURFACE...A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LATE
LAST NIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL FL. THIS FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO STALL TODAY AND COULD BE THE FOCUS OF A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING. FOR
TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THIS
PASSING COLD FRONT THEREFORE EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR
ASIDE FROM SOME SPORADIC CIRRUS...AND WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PREVIOUS SCA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM. WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND
DOWNWARD. WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS IN MOST AREAS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE...WE WILL STILL GO WITH SCEC FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH TODAY DUE TO
LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS AND INCREASING NE WINDS/WAVES IN WAKE
OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  51  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  72  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  75  58  80  61 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  76  63  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  79  56  83  60 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  82  59  84  61 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SANDRIK/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 191433
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1033 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
AT THE SURFACE...A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA LATE
LAST NIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL FL. THIS FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO STALL TODAY AND COULD BE THE FOCUS OF A SMALL RAIN CHANCE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA TOMORROW MORNING. FOR
TODAY...EXPECT HIGHS TO BE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S TO NEAR 80. DRY AIR ALOFT HAS BEEN REINFORCED BY THIS
PASSING COLD FRONT THEREFORE EXPECT SKIES TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR
ASIDE FROM SOME SPORADIC CIRRUS...AND WINDS TO SHIFT MORE
NORTHEASTERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
THE PREVIOUS SCA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM. WINDS HAVE
BEGUN TO DECREASE BELOW 20 KTS AND SEAS ARE BEGINNING TO TREND
DOWNWARD. WITH WINDS 15-20 KTS IN MOST AREAS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE...WE WILL STILL GO WITH SCEC FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA
TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WEAKEN OVER THE AREA.

RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH TODAY DUE TO
LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS AND INCREASING NE WINDS/WAVES IN WAKE
OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  51  79  56 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  72  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  75  58  80  61 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  76  63  80  64 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  79  56  83  60 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  82  59  84  61 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DUVAL-
     FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SANDRIK/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KMLB 191356
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY...

CURRENT..."DRY" COOL FRONT WELL-DENOTED IN VIS IMAGERY AS A LONG
ROPE CLOUD EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX TO NORTH OF KPIE TO KEVB AND
NOAA BUOY 41002 (~32N 75W). LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER LAND
WITH THIS FEATURE...SOME THIN CI NOTED OVER THE NRN HALF OF FL.
PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT TO NE WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER WATER ATTM AS LCL BLYR IS STILL DECOUPLED.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FL AND SLOW MARKEDLY
GIVEN THE IMMEDIATE VEERING OF WINDS TO ONSHORE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME
(BUT NOT A HECK OF A LOT OF) CU/SC DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HALF CWA
IN SUBTLE MOISTURE RIBBON...BUT MOST OF THE CWA WILL AVERAGE MOSUNNY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LITTLE BREEZINESS ALONG THE COAST
FROM ABOUT THE CAPE NWD THIS AFTERNOON..WHICH WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS
DOWN TO NEAR 80F THERE. OTHERWISE...L80S COAST AND ABOUT 85F INLAND.
OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE M60S..WITH U60S NEAR THE COAST. WILL REVISIT
POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW/PATCHY MIST OR FOG TONIGHT ONCE THE 12Z DATA
COMES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. COULD SEE SOME CIGS BKN030-040 INVOF KTIX-KMLB LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. WINDS/SEAS WILL PICK UP WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF
KXMR BY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY BY THIS EVENING. PLACEMENT OF
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT LOOKS TO BE ON THE MARK.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/


HAVE ADDED A SMALL COASTAL POP FROM CANAVERAL TO VOLUSIA FOR
TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE NAM CONCENTRATES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER FORECASTS...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES DOWN TO.

MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARDS ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A
MOISTURE POOL WHICH LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE NORTH BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE BUT WON`T RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION MON NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND MID-UPPER 80S INLAND.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE/DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NW
CARIBBEAN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MID WEEK. LARGE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY...AND NOW EVEN WHAT HAS BEEN THE MORE NORTHWARD GFS
SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY STALLING OUT MORE OVER SOUTH...RATHER THAN
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS MEANS THAT THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE POOL THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT TAPS INTO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINS CONFINED MORE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE THE RAIN/NO RAIN LINE WILL SET UP...AND IT MAY MOVE EACH
DAY TUES-THURS DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 DRY WITH BREVARD/OSCEOLA
LOOKING TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN. WHILE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER SOUTH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
TREASURE COAST FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THE
BOUNDARY SLIPS MORE NORTHWARDS.

FRIDAY...MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR THE TAIL
END OF NEXT WEEK IN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER PATTERN
ACROSS THE US AND ANY ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NW CARIB.
STILL LEANING TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORE IN LINE WITH
WHAT HAS BEEN THE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL 4-5SM BR HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
BUT OVERALL THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRE DAWN FOG AT THE TERMINALS NORTH OF
THERE. DAYTIME CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY KMLB NORTHWARD...WHICH COULD
BRING AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE FL035 TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE IS FORECAST FROM ABOUT
CANAVERAL NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND A
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THESE POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EVENING AND SHIFTING DOWN TO
AROUND CANAVERAL. THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND ST LUCIE INLET
LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY UNAFFECTED BY THIS WIND SURGE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF
THE CAPE AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE AND THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ON TUES AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS...BUT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUES NIGHT WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING NORTHEAST 10-15KTS BY WED AFTERNOON.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE MON...BECOMING 2-3FT OVER
ALL THE WATERS TUES AND WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  66  82  66 /   0  20  30  20
MCO  84  66  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  83  69  83  67 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  83  65  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  84  66  85  67 /   0  10  20  10
ORL  85  67  86  68 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  83  67  84  66 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMLB 191356
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY...

CURRENT..."DRY" COOL FRONT WELL-DENOTED IN VIS IMAGERY AS A LONG
ROPE CLOUD EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX TO NORTH OF KPIE TO KEVB AND
NOAA BUOY 41002 (~32N 75W). LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER LAND
WITH THIS FEATURE...SOME THIN CI NOTED OVER THE NRN HALF OF FL.
PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT TO NE WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER WATER ATTM AS LCL BLYR IS STILL DECOUPLED.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FL AND SLOW MARKEDLY
GIVEN THE IMMEDIATE VEERING OF WINDS TO ONSHORE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME
(BUT NOT A HECK OF A LOT OF) CU/SC DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HALF CWA
IN SUBTLE MOISTURE RIBBON...BUT MOST OF THE CWA WILL AVERAGE MOSUNNY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LITTLE BREEZINESS ALONG THE COAST
FROM ABOUT THE CAPE NWD THIS AFTERNOON..WHICH WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS
DOWN TO NEAR 80F THERE. OTHERWISE...L80S COAST AND ABOUT 85F INLAND.
OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE M60S..WITH U60S NEAR THE COAST. WILL REVISIT
POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW/PATCHY MIST OR FOG TONIGHT ONCE THE 12Z DATA
COMES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. COULD SEE SOME CIGS BKN030-040 INVOF KTIX-KMLB LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. WINDS/SEAS WILL PICK UP WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF
KXMR BY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY BY THIS EVENING. PLACEMENT OF
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT LOOKS TO BE ON THE MARK.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/


HAVE ADDED A SMALL COASTAL POP FROM CANAVERAL TO VOLUSIA FOR
TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE NAM CONCENTRATES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER FORECASTS...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES DOWN TO.

MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARDS ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A
MOISTURE POOL WHICH LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE NORTH BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE BUT WON`T RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION MON NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND MID-UPPER 80S INLAND.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE/DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NW
CARIBBEAN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MID WEEK. LARGE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY...AND NOW EVEN WHAT HAS BEEN THE MORE NORTHWARD GFS
SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY STALLING OUT MORE OVER SOUTH...RATHER THAN
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS MEANS THAT THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE POOL THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT TAPS INTO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINS CONFINED MORE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE THE RAIN/NO RAIN LINE WILL SET UP...AND IT MAY MOVE EACH
DAY TUES-THURS DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 DRY WITH BREVARD/OSCEOLA
LOOKING TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN. WHILE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER SOUTH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
TREASURE COAST FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THE
BOUNDARY SLIPS MORE NORTHWARDS.

FRIDAY...MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR THE TAIL
END OF NEXT WEEK IN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER PATTERN
ACROSS THE US AND ANY ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NW CARIB.
STILL LEANING TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORE IN LINE WITH
WHAT HAS BEEN THE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL 4-5SM BR HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
BUT OVERALL THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRE DAWN FOG AT THE TERMINALS NORTH OF
THERE. DAYTIME CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY KMLB NORTHWARD...WHICH COULD
BRING AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE FL035 TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE IS FORECAST FROM ABOUT
CANAVERAL NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND A
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THESE POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EVENING AND SHIFTING DOWN TO
AROUND CANAVERAL. THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND ST LUCIE INLET
LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY UNAFFECTED BY THIS WIND SURGE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF
THE CAPE AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE AND THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ON TUES AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS...BUT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUES NIGHT WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING NORTHEAST 10-15KTS BY WED AFTERNOON.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE MON...BECOMING 2-3FT OVER
ALL THE WATERS TUES AND WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  66  82  66 /   0  20  30  20
MCO  84  66  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  83  69  83  67 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  83  65  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  84  66  85  67 /   0  10  20  10
ORL  85  67  86  68 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  83  67  84  66 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMLB 191356
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY...

CURRENT..."DRY" COOL FRONT WELL-DENOTED IN VIS IMAGERY AS A LONG
ROPE CLOUD EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX TO NORTH OF KPIE TO KEVB AND
NOAA BUOY 41002 (~32N 75W). LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER LAND
WITH THIS FEATURE...SOME THIN CI NOTED OVER THE NRN HALF OF FL.
PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT TO NE WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER WATER ATTM AS LCL BLYR IS STILL DECOUPLED.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FL AND SLOW MARKEDLY
GIVEN THE IMMEDIATE VEERING OF WINDS TO ONSHORE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME
(BUT NOT A HECK OF A LOT OF) CU/SC DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HALF CWA
IN SUBTLE MOISTURE RIBBON...BUT MOST OF THE CWA WILL AVERAGE MOSUNNY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LITTLE BREEZINESS ALONG THE COAST
FROM ABOUT THE CAPE NWD THIS AFTERNOON..WHICH WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS
DOWN TO NEAR 80F THERE. OTHERWISE...L80S COAST AND ABOUT 85F INLAND.
OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE M60S..WITH U60S NEAR THE COAST. WILL REVISIT
POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW/PATCHY MIST OR FOG TONIGHT ONCE THE 12Z DATA
COMES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. COULD SEE SOME CIGS BKN030-040 INVOF KTIX-KMLB LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. WINDS/SEAS WILL PICK UP WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF
KXMR BY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY BY THIS EVENING. PLACEMENT OF
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT LOOKS TO BE ON THE MARK.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/


HAVE ADDED A SMALL COASTAL POP FROM CANAVERAL TO VOLUSIA FOR
TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE NAM CONCENTRATES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER FORECASTS...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES DOWN TO.

MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARDS ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A
MOISTURE POOL WHICH LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE NORTH BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE BUT WON`T RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION MON NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND MID-UPPER 80S INLAND.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE/DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NW
CARIBBEAN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MID WEEK. LARGE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY...AND NOW EVEN WHAT HAS BEEN THE MORE NORTHWARD GFS
SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY STALLING OUT MORE OVER SOUTH...RATHER THAN
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS MEANS THAT THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE POOL THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT TAPS INTO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINS CONFINED MORE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE THE RAIN/NO RAIN LINE WILL SET UP...AND IT MAY MOVE EACH
DAY TUES-THURS DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 DRY WITH BREVARD/OSCEOLA
LOOKING TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN. WHILE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER SOUTH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
TREASURE COAST FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THE
BOUNDARY SLIPS MORE NORTHWARDS.

FRIDAY...MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR THE TAIL
END OF NEXT WEEK IN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER PATTERN
ACROSS THE US AND ANY ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NW CARIB.
STILL LEANING TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORE IN LINE WITH
WHAT HAS BEEN THE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL 4-5SM BR HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
BUT OVERALL THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRE DAWN FOG AT THE TERMINALS NORTH OF
THERE. DAYTIME CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY KMLB NORTHWARD...WHICH COULD
BRING AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE FL035 TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE IS FORECAST FROM ABOUT
CANAVERAL NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND A
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THESE POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EVENING AND SHIFTING DOWN TO
AROUND CANAVERAL. THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND ST LUCIE INLET
LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY UNAFFECTED BY THIS WIND SURGE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF
THE CAPE AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE AND THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ON TUES AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS...BUT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUES NIGHT WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING NORTHEAST 10-15KTS BY WED AFTERNOON.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE MON...BECOMING 2-3FT OVER
ALL THE WATERS TUES AND WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  66  82  66 /   0  20  30  20
MCO  84  66  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  83  69  83  67 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  83  65  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  84  66  85  67 /   0  10  20  10
ORL  85  67  86  68 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  83  67  84  66 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMLB 191356
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES TODAY...

CURRENT..."DRY" COOL FRONT WELL-DENOTED IN VIS IMAGERY AS A LONG
ROPE CLOUD EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX TO NORTH OF KPIE TO KEVB AND
NOAA BUOY 41002 (~32N 75W). LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS OVER LAND
WITH THIS FEATURE...SOME THIN CI NOTED OVER THE NRN HALF OF FL.
PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT TO NE WITH AN INCREASE IN SPEED ACCOMPANIES
THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER WATER ATTM AS LCL BLYR IS STILL DECOUPLED.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL SAG INTO CENTRAL FL AND SLOW MARKEDLY
GIVEN THE IMMEDIATE VEERING OF WINDS TO ONSHORE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME
(BUT NOT A HECK OF A LOT OF) CU/SC DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN HALF CWA
IN SUBTLE MOISTURE RIBBON...BUT MOST OF THE CWA WILL AVERAGE MOSUNNY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LITTLE BREEZINESS ALONG THE COAST
FROM ABOUT THE CAPE NWD THIS AFTERNOON..WHICH WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS
DOWN TO NEAR 80F THERE. OTHERWISE...L80S COAST AND ABOUT 85F INLAND.
OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE M60S..WITH U60S NEAR THE COAST. WILL REVISIT
POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW/PATCHY MIST OR FOG TONIGHT ONCE THE 12Z DATA
COMES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. COULD SEE SOME CIGS BKN030-040 INVOF KTIX-KMLB LATE
TONIGHT...WHERE THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.MARINE...NO CHGS. WINDS/SEAS WILL PICK UP WELL OFFSHORE NORTH OF
KXMR BY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY BY THIS EVENING. PLACEMENT OF
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT LOOKS TO BE ON THE MARK.

&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....WIMMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/


HAVE ADDED A SMALL COASTAL POP FROM CANAVERAL TO VOLUSIA FOR
TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE NAM CONCENTRATES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER FORECASTS...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES DOWN TO.

MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARDS ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A
MOISTURE POOL WHICH LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE NORTH BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE BUT WON`T RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION MON NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND MID-UPPER 80S INLAND.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE/DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NW
CARIBBEAN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MID WEEK. LARGE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY...AND NOW EVEN WHAT HAS BEEN THE MORE NORTHWARD GFS
SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY STALLING OUT MORE OVER SOUTH...RATHER THAN
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS MEANS THAT THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE POOL THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT TAPS INTO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINS CONFINED MORE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE THE RAIN/NO RAIN LINE WILL SET UP...AND IT MAY MOVE EACH
DAY TUES-THURS DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 DRY WITH BREVARD/OSCEOLA
LOOKING TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN. WHILE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER SOUTH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
TREASURE COAST FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THE
BOUNDARY SLIPS MORE NORTHWARDS.

FRIDAY...MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR THE TAIL
END OF NEXT WEEK IN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER PATTERN
ACROSS THE US AND ANY ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NW CARIB.
STILL LEANING TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORE IN LINE WITH
WHAT HAS BEEN THE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL 4-5SM BR HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
BUT OVERALL THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRE DAWN FOG AT THE TERMINALS NORTH OF
THERE. DAYTIME CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY KMLB NORTHWARD...WHICH COULD
BRING AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE FL035 TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE IS FORECAST FROM ABOUT
CANAVERAL NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND A
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THESE POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EVENING AND SHIFTING DOWN TO
AROUND CANAVERAL. THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND ST LUCIE INLET
LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY UNAFFECTED BY THIS WIND SURGE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF
THE CAPE AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE AND THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ON TUES AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS...BUT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUES NIGHT WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING NORTHEAST 10-15KTS BY WED AFTERNOON.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE MON...BECOMING 2-3FT OVER
ALL THE WATERS TUES AND WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  66  82  66 /   0  20  30  20
MCO  84  66  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  83  69  83  67 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  83  65  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  84  66  85  67 /   0  10  20  10
ORL  85  67  86  68 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  83  67  84  66 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191337 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT TODAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THAT A
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS TO SHOW THE WINDS SWINGING FROM A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            86  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           85  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191337 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WAS OUT TODAY OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
THAT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS TO SHOW THE WINDS SWINGING FROM AN NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            86  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           85  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 191337 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WAS OUT TODAY OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
THAT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS TO SHOW THE WINDS SWINGING FROM AN NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            86  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           85  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 191337 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WAS OUT TODAY OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
THAT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS TO SHOW THE WINDS SWINGING FROM AN NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            86  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           85  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 191337 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WAS OUT TODAY OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
THAT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS TO SHOW THE WINDS SWINGING FROM AN NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            86  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           85  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 191337 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT TODAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THAT A
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS TO SHOW THE WINDS SWINGING FROM A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            86  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           85  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD



000
FXUS62 KTBW 191315
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN MEANS NO UPDATES NEEDED TO AFTERNOON
FORECAST.

MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN AT 0.65 INCH PRECIP WATER...WHICH IS
ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OF 1.40 INCHES. STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 3500 FT WOULD BREAK AT 87 DEGREES...WHICH
IS JUST BELOW FORECAST HIGH TEMP AWAY FROM COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD ALL SITES. NAM MODEL AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG THIS
MORNING EVEN THOUGH NONE FORMED. HOWEVER...KTPA DID HAVE SOME
FEW012. WILL PUT 6SM BR IN LAKELAND (KLAL) BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
COASTAL AIRPORTS DUE TO DRY ATMOS AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...
INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL
ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND MOST OF
MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&
$$

UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/RIVER...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH





000
FXUS62 KTBW 191315
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN MEANS NO UPDATES NEEDED TO AFTERNOON
FORECAST.

MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN AT 0.65 INCH PRECIP WATER...WHICH IS
ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OF 1.40 INCHES. STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 3500 FT WOULD BREAK AT 87 DEGREES...WHICH
IS JUST BELOW FORECAST HIGH TEMP AWAY FROM COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD ALL SITES. NAM MODEL AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG THIS
MORNING EVEN THOUGH NONE FORMED. HOWEVER...KTPA DID HAVE SOME
FEW012. WILL PUT 6SM BR IN LAKELAND (KLAL) BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
COASTAL AIRPORTS DUE TO DRY ATMOS AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...
INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL
ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND MOST OF
MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&
$$

UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/RIVER...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH





000
FXUS62 KTBW 191315
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN MEANS NO UPDATES NEEDED TO AFTERNOON
FORECAST.

MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN AT 0.65 INCH PRECIP WATER...WHICH IS
ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OF 1.40 INCHES. STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 3500 FT WOULD BREAK AT 87 DEGREES...WHICH
IS JUST BELOW FORECAST HIGH TEMP AWAY FROM COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD ALL SITES. NAM MODEL AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG THIS
MORNING EVEN THOUGH NONE FORMED. HOWEVER...KTPA DID HAVE SOME
FEW012. WILL PUT 6SM BR IN LAKELAND (KLAL) BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
COASTAL AIRPORTS DUE TO DRY ATMOS AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...
INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL
ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND MOST OF
MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&
$$

UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/RIVER...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH





000
FXUS62 KTBW 191315
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN MEANS NO UPDATES NEEDED TO AFTERNOON
FORECAST.

MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN AT 0.65 INCH PRECIP WATER...WHICH IS
ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL OF 1.40 INCHES. STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSION AT 3500 FT WOULD BREAK AT 87 DEGREES...WHICH
IS JUST BELOW FORECAST HIGH TEMP AWAY FROM COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH PERIOD ALL SITES. NAM MODEL AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG THIS
MORNING EVEN THOUGH NONE FORMED. HOWEVER...KTPA DID HAVE SOME
FEW012. WILL PUT 6SM BR IN LAKELAND (KLAL) BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
COASTAL AIRPORTS DUE TO DRY ATMOS AND WARMER TEMPS.

&&

.MARINE...
INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN THE NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL
ZONES AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE BY LATE MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET
THROUGH MID WEEK. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AND MOST OF
MONDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS
BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&
$$

UPPER AIR/CLIMATE/RIVER...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...09/RUDE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...72/NOAH





000
FXUS62 KTAE 191312
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
912 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Slightly cooler and drier air will prevail today behind a cold front
with afternoon highs mainly in the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.Prev Discussion [259 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Seasonably cool night on tap for tonight with a dry atmosphere in
place and high pressure situated just north of the forecast area.
Upper trough over the eastern U.S. will reamplify on Monday with
a shortwave cross the region during the afternoon. Moisture will
be very limited, so threat of showers appears minimal and will
leave PoPs below 20 percent for now. A reinforcing shot of dry air
will follow this shortwave Monday night and Tuesday. Otherwise,
airmass will modify slightly with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s
on Monday becoming lower to mid 80s on Tuesday.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain 20 percent with
temperatures near average during the day and a few degrees below
average at night with the dry air in place.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail with winds
around 10 knots or less this afternoon.


.Marine...
In the wake of a cold front, exercise caution level offshore
winds this morning will diminish during the afternoon. A brief
easterly surge will then be possible tonight over the eastern
waters. Thereafter, winds and seas will be minimal through
Tuesday, before northeasterly flow increases again mid-week.


.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no
flooding concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   79  53  81  56  83 /   0   0  10   0   0
Panama City   77  58  80  61  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        76  50  79  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  48  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  51  80  56  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    81  55  83  59  84 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  77  60  79  63  80 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD






000
FXUS62 KTAE 191312
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
912 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Slightly cooler and drier air will prevail today behind a cold front
with afternoon highs mainly in the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.Prev Discussion [259 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Seasonably cool night on tap for tonight with a dry atmosphere in
place and high pressure situated just north of the forecast area.
Upper trough over the eastern U.S. will reamplify on Monday with
a shortwave cross the region during the afternoon. Moisture will
be very limited, so threat of showers appears minimal and will
leave PoPs below 20 percent for now. A reinforcing shot of dry air
will follow this shortwave Monday night and Tuesday. Otherwise,
airmass will modify slightly with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s
on Monday becoming lower to mid 80s on Tuesday.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain 20 percent with
temperatures near average during the day and a few degrees below
average at night with the dry air in place.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail with winds
around 10 knots or less this afternoon.


.Marine...
In the wake of a cold front, exercise caution level offshore
winds this morning will diminish during the afternoon. A brief
easterly surge will then be possible tonight over the eastern
waters. Thereafter, winds and seas will be minimal through
Tuesday, before northeasterly flow increases again mid-week.


.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.


.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no
flooding concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   79  53  81  56  83 /   0   0  10   0   0
Panama City   77  58  80  61  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        76  50  79  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  48  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  51  80  56  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    81  55  83  59  84 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  77  60  79  63  80 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KMFL 191218
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            85  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           83  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 191218
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            85  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           83  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 191218
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            85  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           83  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 191218
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            85  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           83  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KKEY 191211
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
811 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 20/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KASPER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 191211
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
811 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 20/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KASPER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KTBW 190833
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
433 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH BEHIND IT. THE
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE FRONT WILL
SLOW AND HANG UP OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT
BACK NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHEAST AND THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE FRONT WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR MONDAY AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT...BUT FEEL
THAT IT IS STILL TOO LIMITED TO MENTION RAIN FOR THE FORECAST AREA
AND WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARMER THAN NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD...AS GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND INDIVIDUAL MODEL
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY LEAVES MUCH TO BE DESIRED. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE FEATURE CLOSING OFF
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE THEN LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ANOTHER
SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOTED
BETWEEN THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...WITH A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EASTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. WITH
GENERALLY ZONAL WEST-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD STRUGGLE TO LIFT
TOO FAR TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THAT SAID...EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL PASS BY PERIODICALLY...ALLOWING THE DEEPER
MOISTURE TO TEMPORARILY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GOMEX...BUT THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
EVOLUTION AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIODS.

AS FOR FORECAST DETAILS...WILL KEEP THE FORECAST RAIN FREE ON MONDAY
NIGHT...THEN SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS MAINLY FROM THE
TAMPA BAY AREA SOUTHWARD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO LIFT
NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN ALL AREAS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FOR KLAL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH SPEEDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY...MAINLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  86  68  85  69 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  86  65  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
GIF  85  66  86  66 /   0  10  10  10
SRQ  86  66  84  66 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  86  60  86  60 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  84  71  85  72 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...21/JELSEMA







000
FXUS62 KMFL 190815
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.


&&

.MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            85  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           83  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190815
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.


&&

.MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            85  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           83  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190815
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.


&&

.MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            85  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           83  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190815
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.


&&

.MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            85  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           83  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMLB 190729
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUING TODAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DRIVING A COLD
FRONT AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE LOOKS FORMIDABLE THOUGH AND WILL
NOT DOUBT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOW IT DROPPING DOWN INTO
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THETA E FIELDS SHOW THE BOUNDARY REACHING TO
ABOUT SOUTH BREVARD BY EVENING THEN HANGING UP AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER QUICKLY AROUND TO NORTHEAST/EAST.

WINDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80...OTHERWISE LOWER
TO MID 80S EXPECTED AGAIN. ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
PROVIDE SLIGHT MODERATION OF TEMPS WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

HAVE ADDED A SMALL COASTAL POP FROM CANAVERAL TO VOLUSIA FOR
TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE NAM CONCENTRATES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER FORECASTS...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES DOWN TO.

MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARDS ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A
MOISTURE POOL WHICH LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE NORTH BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE BUT WON`T RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION MON NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND MID-UPPER 80S INLAND.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE/DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NW
CARIBBEAN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MID WEEK. LARGE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY...AND NOW EVEN WHAT HAS BEEN THE MORE NORTHWARD GFS
SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY STALLING OUT MORE OVER SOUTH...RATHER THAN
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS MEANS THAT THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE POOL THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT TAPS INTO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINS CONFINED MORE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE THE RAIN/NO RAIN LINE WILL SET UP...AND IT MAY MOVE EACH
DAY TUES-THURS DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 DRY WITH BREVARD/OSCEOLA
LOOKING TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN. WHILE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER SOUTH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
TREASURE COAST FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THE
BOUNDARY SLIPS MORE NORTHWARDS.

FRIDAY...MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR THE TAIL
END OF NEXT WEEK IN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER PATTERN
ACROSS THE US AND ANY ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NW CARIB.
STILL LEANING TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORE IN LINE WITH
WHAT HAS BEEN THE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL 4-5SM BR HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
BUT OVERALL THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRE DAWN FOG AT THE TERMINALS NORTH OF
THERE. DAYTIME CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY KMLB NORTHWARD...WHICH COULD
BRING AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE FL035 TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE IS FORECAST FROM ABOUT
CANAVERAL NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND A
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THESE POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EVENING AND SHIFTING DOWN TO
AROUND CANAVERAL. THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND ST LUCIE INLET
LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY UNAFFECTED BY THIS WIND SURGE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF
THE CAPE AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE AND THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ON TUES AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS...BUT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUES NIGHT WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING NORTHEAST 10-15KTS BY WED AFTERNOON.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE MON...BECOMING 2-3FT OVER
ALL THE WATERS TUES AND WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  66  82  66 /   0  20  30  20
MCO  84  66  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  83  69  83  67 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  83  65  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  84  66  85  67 /   0  10  20  10
ORL  85  67  86  68 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  83  67  84  66 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....MOSES




000
FXUS62 KMLB 190729
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUING TODAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DRIVING A COLD
FRONT AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FRONT WILL BE SLOWING AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE LOOKS FORMIDABLE THOUGH AND WILL
NOT DOUBT THE MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOW IT DROPPING DOWN INTO
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THETA E FIELDS SHOW THE BOUNDARY REACHING TO
ABOUT SOUTH BREVARD BY EVENING THEN HANGING UP AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER QUICKLY AROUND TO NORTHEAST/EAST.

WINDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST SWINGING AROUND TO NORTH/NORTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HOLD MAX TEMPS TO AROUND 80...OTHERWISE LOWER
TO MID 80S EXPECTED AGAIN. ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL
PROVIDE SLIGHT MODERATION OF TEMPS WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER
60S.

HAVE ADDED A SMALL COASTAL POP FROM CANAVERAL TO VOLUSIA FOR
TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE NAM CONCENTRATES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WHILE THE GFS IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH. ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED
IN LATER FORECASTS...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SLIDES DOWN TO.

MONDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STALLS OUT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTHWARDS ON MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A
MOISTURE POOL WHICH LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE NORTH BREVARD/VOLUSIA COASTS.
ELSEWHERE CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE BUT WON`T RULE OUT A
FEW SPRINKLES. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION MON NIGHT
WITH THE FRONT.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW AND MID-UPPER 80S INLAND.

TUESDAY-THURSDAY...THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
TROPICAL MOISTURE/DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND NW
CARIBBEAN WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MID WEEK. LARGE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY...AND NOW EVEN WHAT HAS BEEN THE MORE NORTHWARD GFS
SUGGESTS THE BOUNDARY STALLING OUT MORE OVER SOUTH...RATHER THAN
CENTRAL FLORIDA.

THIS MEANS THAT THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE POOL THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT TAPS INTO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE REMAINS CONFINED MORE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE
DRY SIDE OF THE FRONT. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHERE THE RAIN/NO RAIN LINE WILL SET UP...AND IT MAY MOVE EACH
DAY TUES-THURS DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 DRY WITH BREVARD/OSCEOLA
LOOKING TO BE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY MENTIONABLE RAIN. WHILE
BETTER RAIN CHANCES MAY BE FURTHER SOUTH...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
TREASURE COAST FOR POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IF THE
BOUNDARY SLIPS MORE NORTHWARDS.

FRIDAY...MODEL CONTINUITY AND CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW FOR THE TAIL
END OF NEXT WEEK IN HANDLING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER PATTERN
ACROSS THE US AND ANY ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE NW CARIB.
STILL LEANING TOWARDS A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORE IN LINE WITH
WHAT HAS BEEN THE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL 4-5SM BR HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
BUT OVERALL THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO
PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRE DAWN FOG AT THE TERMINALS NORTH OF
THERE. DAYTIME CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY KMLB NORTHWARD...WHICH COULD
BRING AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE FL035 TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE IS FORECAST FROM ABOUT
CANAVERAL NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEHIND A
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL NECESSITATE AN EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENT FOR THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THESE POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO EVENING AND SHIFTING DOWN TO
AROUND CANAVERAL. THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND ST LUCIE INLET
LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY UNAFFECTED BY THIS WIND SURGE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC ON MONDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS SOUTH OF
THE CAPE AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE AND THE
BOUNDARY. EXPECT TO SEE WINDS BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 5-10KTS OVER
ALL THE WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY LIFT NORTH MON NIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW ON TUES AS THE FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS...BUT BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION TUES NIGHT WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMING NORTHEAST 10-15KTS BY WED AFTERNOON.

SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE MON...BECOMING 2-3FT OVER
ALL THE WATERS TUES AND WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  66  82  66 /   0  20  30  20
MCO  84  66  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  83  69  83  67 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  83  67  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  83  65  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
SFB  84  66  85  67 /   0  10  20  10
ORL  85  67  86  68 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  83  67  84  66 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....MOSES





000
FXUS62 KKEY 190719
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE CALM. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH NEAR 5 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE ENTERING THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
DRY AIR MASS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP...TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN
PLACE BY TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASED BY 20 PERCENT FOR
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
CHALLENGED DUE SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. BE THAT AS IT MAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY. SUSTAINED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAWK CHANNEL...AND FLORIDA
BAY THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...HAWK CHANNEL...AND FLORIDA BAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE SEEN IN THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OF EYW AND MTH FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VFR WILL PREVAIL AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
20/06Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN THE PAST DECADE...BOTH OF THE WARM TEMPERATURE DAILY RECORDS HAVE
BEEN RECORDED. ON THIS DATE IN 2007...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES WAS LAST RECORDED. ALSO IN 2004...THE
DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES WAS RECORDED.

THE COOL TEMPERATURE DAILY RECORDS...ON THE OTHER HAND...BOTH DATE
BACK TO 1927...WHEN ON THE SAME DAY...THE DAILY RECORD COLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 74 DEGREES...AND THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF
66 DEGREES WERE BOTH RECORDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83 75 85 76 / 00 05 20 50
MARATHON  83 75 85 76 / 00 05 20 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE.............MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 190719
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
320 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS NO PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SKIES OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN
ARE CLEAR. WINDS OVER LAND ARE CALM. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH NEAR 5 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE ENTERING THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MONDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS
DRY AIR MASS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. DEEP...TROPICAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN
PLACE BY TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASED BY 20 PERCENT FOR
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. INTENSIFICATION OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
CHALLENGED DUE SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. BE THAT AS IT MAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A
DISTINCT POSSIBILITY FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BREEZES THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED EAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY. SUSTAINED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...HAWK CHANNEL...AND FLORIDA
BAY THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...HAWK CHANNEL...AND FLORIDA BAY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
19/06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE SEEN IN THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OF EYW AND MTH FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VFR WILL PREVAIL AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
20/06Z.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN THE PAST DECADE...BOTH OF THE WARM TEMPERATURE DAILY RECORDS HAVE
BEEN RECORDED. ON THIS DATE IN 2007...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 89 DEGREES WAS LAST RECORDED. ALSO IN 2004...THE
DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 80 DEGREES WAS RECORDED.

THE COOL TEMPERATURE DAILY RECORDS...ON THE OTHER HAND...BOTH DATE
BACK TO 1927...WHEN ON THE SAME DAY...THE DAILY RECORD COLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE OF 74 DEGREES...AND THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF
66 DEGREES WERE BOTH RECORDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83 75 85 76 / 00 05 20 50
MARATHON  83 75 85 76 / 00 05 20 50

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/CLIMATE.............MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KTAE 190659
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
259 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A slightly cooler and drier airmass will filter into the region
behind a cold front pushing southward across north Florida early
this morning. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Seasonably cool night on tap for tonight with a dry atmosphere in
place and high pressure situated just north of the forecast area.
Upper trough over the eastern U.S. will reamplify on Monday with
a shortwave cross the region during the afternoon. Moisture will
be very limited, so threat of showers appears minimal and will
leave PoPs below 20 percent for now. A reinforcing shot of dry air
will follow this shortwave Monday night and Tuesday. Otherwise,
airmass will modify slightly with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s
on Monday becoming lower to mid 80s on Tuesday.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain 20 percent with
temperatures near average during the day and a few degrees below
average at night with the dry air in place.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail with winds
around 10 knots or less this afternoon.

&&

.Marine...
In the wake of a cold front, exercise caution level offshore
winds this morning will diminish during the afternoon. A brief
easterly surge will then be possible tonight over the eastern
waters. Thereafter, winds and seas will be minimal through
Tuesday, before northeasterly flow increases again mid-week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no
flooding concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   79  53  81  56  83 /   0   0  10   0   0
Panama City   77  58  80  61  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        76  50  79  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  48  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  51  80  56  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    81  55  83  59  84 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  77  60  79  63  80 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD







000
FXUS62 KTAE 190659
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
259 AM EDT Sun Oct 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A slightly cooler and drier airmass will filter into the region
behind a cold front pushing southward across north Florida early
this morning. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Seasonably cool night on tap for tonight with a dry atmosphere in
place and high pressure situated just north of the forecast area.
Upper trough over the eastern U.S. will reamplify on Monday with
a shortwave cross the region during the afternoon. Moisture will
be very limited, so threat of showers appears minimal and will
leave PoPs below 20 percent for now. A reinforcing shot of dry air
will follow this shortwave Monday night and Tuesday. Otherwise,
airmass will modify slightly with highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s
on Monday becoming lower to mid 80s on Tuesday.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
The prevailing pattern will feature dry, northwest aloft through
most of the period with the mean upper level trough axis east of
the area. PoPs still look like they will remain 20 percent with
temperatures near average during the day and a few degrees below
average at night with the dry air in place.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] VFR conditions will prevail with winds
around 10 knots or less this afternoon.

&&

.Marine...
In the wake of a cold front, exercise caution level offshore
winds this morning will diminish during the afternoon. A brief
easterly surge will then be possible tonight over the eastern
waters. Thereafter, winds and seas will be minimal through
Tuesday, before northeasterly flow increases again mid-week.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no
flooding concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   79  53  81  56  83 /   0   0  10   0   0
Panama City   77  58  80  61  81 /   0   0  10   0   0
Dothan        76  50  79  52  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        77  48  79  52  82 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      78  51  80  56  81 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    81  55  83  59  84 /   0   0  10  10  10
Apalachicola  77  60  79  63  80 /   0   0  10   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD








000
FXUS62 KJAX 190649
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.UPDATE...WILL GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OFFSHORE GA WATERS
THIS MORNING UNTIL 11 AM.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
ALONG THE SE GA-NE FL BORDER. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NE
FL EARLY THIS MORNING EXITING THE AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND THEN VEER TO THE NE BY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY SO AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER SE GA AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER
NE FL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL HOVER OFFSHORE
THE NE FL COAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY POOL NEAR THIS FEATURE TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF JAX
MONDAY. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM JAX TO SGJ...WITH LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR FLAGLER COUNTY MONDAY AFTN. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR NE FL...TO
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE NE FL COAST AND MOST OF SE GA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55-60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S COAST. FOR
TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
IS STRONGEST AND MORE MOIST...TRYING TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER AND LESS SHARP WITH THE WAVE.
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER LAND AREAS TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE CONUS MIDWEEK WILL EXIT WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. DRU CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SE GA/NE FL. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LOW STRATOCUMULUS
OFF THE ATLANTIC TODAY MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED NEAR THE GA-FL LINE
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING(06Z-09Z) AT NE
FL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST(SSI AND CRG).

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE SCEC
CONDITIONS TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS...AND
SEAS 4-6 FEET WITH A LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE TUESDAY BUT HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH TODAY DUE TO
LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS AND INCREASING NE WINDS/WAVES IN WAKE
OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  51  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  72  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  75  58  81  61 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  76  63  80  65 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  79  56  83  61 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  82  59  84  62 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ALTAMAHA
     SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/










000
FXUS62 KJAX 190556
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
154 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
ALONG THE SE GA-NE FL BORDER. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NE
FL EARLY THIS MORNING EXITING THE AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND THEN VEER TO THE NE BY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY SO AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER SE GA AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER
NE FL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL HOVER OFFSHORE
THE NE FL COAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY POOL NEAR THIS FEATURE TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF JAX
MONDAY. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM JAX TO SGJ...WITH LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR FLAGLER COUNTY MONDAY AFTN. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR NE FL...TO
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE NE FL COAST AND MOST OF SE GA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55-60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S COAST. FOR
TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
IS STRONGEST AND MORE MOIST...TRYING TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER AND LESS SHARP WITH THE WAVE.
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER LAND AREAS TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE CONUS MIDWEEK WILL EXIT WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. DRU CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SE GA/NE FL. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LOW STRATOCUMULUS
OFF THE ATLANTIC TODAY MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED NEAR THE GA-FL LINE
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING(06Z-09Z) AT NE
FL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST(SSI AND CRG).

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE SCEC
CONDITIONS TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS...AND
SEAS 4-6 FEET WITH A LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE TUESDAY BUT HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH TODAY DUE TO
LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS AND INCREASING NE WINDS/WAVES IN WAKE
OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  51  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  72  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  75  58  81  61 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  76  63  80  65 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  79  56  83  61 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  82  59  84  62 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/










000
FXUS62 KJAX 190556
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
154 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS
ALONG THE SE GA-NE FL BORDER. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NE
FL EARLY THIS MORNING EXITING THE AREA AROUND 12Z. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND THEN VEER TO THE NE BY LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS VERY DRY SO AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER SE GA AND UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER
NE FL. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST MONDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW PREVAILING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WILL HOVER OFFSHORE
THE NE FL COAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY POOL NEAR THIS FEATURE TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF JAX
MONDAY. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM JAX TO SGJ...WITH LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR FLAGLER COUNTY MONDAY AFTN. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN
FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS INTERIOR NE FL...TO
THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE NE FL COAST AND MOST OF SE GA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 55-60 INLAND TO THE MID 60S COAST. FOR
TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
IS STRONGEST AND MORE MOIST...TRYING TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS.
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE QUITE A BIT DRIER AND LESS SHARP WITH THE WAVE.
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY OVER LAND AREAS TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NE CONUS MIDWEEK WILL EXIT WITH RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. DRU CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FOR SE GA/NE FL. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. LOW STRATOCUMULUS
OFF THE ATLANTIC TODAY MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS NEAR THE EAST COAST
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED NEAR THE GA-FL LINE
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING(06Z-09Z) AT NE
FL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NE AFTER 14Z WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS MAINLY NEAR THE COAST(SSI AND CRG).

&&

.MARINE...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE SCEC
CONDITIONS TODAY. NE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS...AND
SEAS 4-6 FEET WITH A LINGERING EASTERLY SWELL FROM HURRICANE
GONZALO. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE TUESDAY BUT HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE HIGH TODAY DUE TO
LINGERING EASTERLY SWELLS AND INCREASING NE WINDS/WAVES IN WAKE
OF COLD FRONT THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  51  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  72  61  77  62 /   0   0  10  10
JAX  75  58  81  61 /   0  10  10  10
SGJ  76  63  80  65 /   0  10  20  20
GNV  79  56  83  61 /   0  10  10  10
OCF  82  59  84  62 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

ZIBURA/ALLEN/









000
FXUS62 KMFL 190523
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
123 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER VFR DAY WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO BE THE PREDOMINANT WIND REGIME, WITH SEA BREEZE ONSET
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190523
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
123 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER VFR DAY WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO BE THE PREDOMINANT WIND REGIME, WITH SEA BREEZE ONSET
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190523
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
123 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER VFR DAY WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO BE THE PREDOMINANT WIND REGIME, WITH SEA BREEZE ONSET
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190523
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
123 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER VFR DAY WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO BE THE PREDOMINANT WIND REGIME, WITH SEA BREEZE ONSET
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA



000
FXUS62 KMLB 190240 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL FL ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND FLOW TURNING NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING
BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE NE FLOW LATE IN
THE DAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MORE MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING ONSHORE.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INTERIOR AND AROUND 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS. INCOMING LONG PERIOD E/NE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SUN...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND SHIFT WINDS
ONSHORE. LONG PERIOD SWELL WL KEEP COMBINED WV HGHTS OF 4-5 FT.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  82  64  82 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  61  84  64  85 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  63  83  67  84 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  59  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  60  84  63  84 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  61  84  65  84 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  63  84  66  85 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  59  83  66  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/BLOTTMAN









000
FXUS62 KMLB 190240 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL FL ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND FLOW TURNING NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING
BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE NE FLOW LATE IN
THE DAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MORE MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING ONSHORE.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INTERIOR AND AROUND 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS. INCOMING LONG PERIOD E/NE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SUN...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND SHIFT WINDS
ONSHORE. LONG PERIOD SWELL WL KEEP COMBINED WV HGHTS OF 4-5 FT.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  82  64  82 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  61  84  64  85 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  63  83  67  84 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  59  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  60  84  63  84 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  61  84  65  84 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  63  84  66  85 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  59  83  66  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/BLOTTMAN









000
FXUS62 KMLB 190240 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL FL ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND FLOW TURNING NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING
BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE NE FLOW LATE IN
THE DAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MORE MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING ONSHORE.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INTERIOR AND AROUND 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS. INCOMING LONG PERIOD E/NE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SUN...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND SHIFT WINDS
ONSHORE. LONG PERIOD SWELL WL KEEP COMBINED WV HGHTS OF 4-5 FT.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  82  64  82 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  61  84  64  85 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  63  83  67  84 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  59  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  60  84  63  84 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  61  84  65  84 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  63  84  66  85 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  59  83  66  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/BLOTTMAN









000
FXUS62 KMLB 190240 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL FL ON SUNDAY WITH
WIND FLOW TURNING NORTH AND NORTHEAST. MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING
BUT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE NE FLOW LATE IN
THE DAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE MORE MARINE STRATOCU PUSHING ONSHORE.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INTERIOR AND AROUND 80 ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTS. INCOMING LONG PERIOD E/NE
SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRONG RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/SUN...LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH SUNDAY AND SHIFT WINDS
ONSHORE. LONG PERIOD SWELL WL KEEP COMBINED WV HGHTS OF 4-5 FT.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  82  64  82 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  61  84  64  85 /   0   0  10  10
MLB  63  83  67  84 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  59  84  66  84 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  60  84  63  84 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  61  84  65  84 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  63  84  66  85 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  59  83  66  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/BLOTTMAN









000
FXUS62 KKEY 190218
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1018 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY...BUILDING ACROSS A STALLING COLD FRONT LYING ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY...BREEZES ARE LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTH...AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID 60S. THE DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOWER HUMIDITY...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES...AND ECHO FREE RADAR.

.UPDATE...THE ENHANCED GRADIENT DUE TO THE SETTLING HIGH WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT...THE KEYS CAN EXPECT LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST BREEZES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...CALM WINDS ALONG THE
ISLAND CHAIN...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
LARGER KEYS. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE RUNNING
COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT. WE WILL SEND A SUBTLE UPDATE TO LOWER
TEMPS...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES.

&&

.MARINE...A PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST
STATES TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BEFORE BEING REINFORCED BY A LARGE HIGH CELL
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 19/00Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 190117
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
917 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS BUT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PCP. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SE GA AND BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NE FL. TEMPS RUNNING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT
NOCTURNAL W TO NW WIND TO SHIFT NE FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z TOMORROW. FREQUENT NE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG SRN GA COAST...KSSI TERMINAL FROM 15Z TO 22Z
SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING A SURGE OF
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS BECOME NE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD TO THE NORTH. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY DUE TO LINGERING SWELLS IN COMBINATION
WITH WIND WAVES AND THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  76  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  60  74  61  77 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  58  76  59  81 /   0   0   0  20
SGJ  64  77  65  80 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  56  81  59  82 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  57  83  60  83 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/SC/AW








000
FXUS62 KJAX 190117
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
917 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
BRINGING HIGH CLOUDS BUT THE MID AND LOW LEVELS TOO DRY FOR ANY
PCP. THE FRONT WILL BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY LATER TONIGHT
ACROSS SE GA AND BY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS NE FL. TEMPS RUNNING A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE AND WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST
OF MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT
NOCTURNAL W TO NW WIND TO SHIFT NE FOLLOWING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 18Z TOMORROW. FREQUENT NE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 10 AND
15 KNOTS EXPECTED ALONG SRN GA COAST...KSSI TERMINAL FROM 15Z TO 22Z
SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING A SURGE OF
NW WINDS...THEN WINDS BECOME NE SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD TO THE NORTH. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY DUE TO LINGERING SWELLS IN COMBINATION
WITH WIND WAVES AND THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  53  76  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  60  74  61  77 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  58  76  59  81 /   0   0   0  20
SGJ  64  77  65  80 /   0   0  10  20
GNV  56  81  59  82 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  57  83  60  83 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/SC/AW







000
FXUS62 KMFL 190106
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
906 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A DRY AND CLEAR NIGHT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
WINDS CALMING WITH SUNSET...AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY CALM THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME NE AT 5-10
KTS...EXCEPT AT KAPF..WHERE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CLEAR SKIES/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS, WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED SOUTH, AS A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GIVE WINDS SPEEDS A
SUBTLE BOOST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
MONDAY`S POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS A VERY DRY SLICE OF AIR REMAINS
AT H7. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE
CWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY A FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            66  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190106
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
906 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A DRY AND CLEAR NIGHT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
WINDS CALMING WITH SUNSET...AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY CALM THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME NE AT 5-10
KTS...EXCEPT AT KAPF..WHERE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CLEAR SKIES/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS, WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED SOUTH, AS A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GIVE WINDS SPEEDS A
SUBTLE BOOST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
MONDAY`S POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS A VERY DRY SLICE OF AIR REMAINS
AT H7. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE
CWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY A FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            66  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190106
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
906 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A DRY AND CLEAR NIGHT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
WINDS CALMING WITH SUNSET...AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY CALM THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME NE AT 5-10
KTS...EXCEPT AT KAPF..WHERE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CLEAR SKIES/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS, WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED SOUTH, AS A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GIVE WINDS SPEEDS A
SUBTLE BOOST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
MONDAY`S POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS A VERY DRY SLICE OF AIR REMAINS
AT H7. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE
CWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY A FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            66  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 190106
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
906 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A DRY AND CLEAR NIGHT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
WINDS CALMING WITH SUNSET...AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY CALM THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME NE AT 5-10
KTS...EXCEPT AT KAPF..WHERE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CLEAR SKIES/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS, WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED SOUTH, AS A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GIVE WINDS SPEEDS A
SUBTLE BOOST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
MONDAY`S POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS A VERY DRY SLICE OF AIR REMAINS
AT H7. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE
CWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY A FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            66  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK



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