Home > Products > State Listing > Florida Data
Latest:
 AFDTAE |  AFDJAX |  AFDMFL |  AFDMLB |  AFDKEY |  AFDTBW |
  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 310346 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF
THE CAPE. BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST LOW TEMPS ARE TRICKY AS FLOW
VEERS WITH TIME AND MODELS SHOW LESS DECOUPLING...MEANING SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS WELL. SLIGHT DEVIATION IN
WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN N/NW AND NE WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MID 40S AND MID 50S. WILL KEEP LOW 50S ALONG THE BREVARD COAST AND
MID 50S TREASURE COAST WHERE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY TO KEEP ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD. SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS MAY START PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE BY SUNRISE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM ON/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY VEERING FLOW ONSHORE AND LIMITING ANY POST FRONTAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL...THOUGH AS ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDIER
WITH MARINE STRATOCU MOVING INTO THE COAST. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OFF
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD
VOLUSIA COAST IN THE MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. NE-E FLOW ON SAT WILL ADVECT MARINE STRATOCU WITH CLOUD BASE
NEAR 040AGL ONSHORE WITH OCNL BKN CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS NORTHEAST 15KTS BY DAYBREAK AND
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS SAT AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH REACHES THE
CAROLINA COAST.

SEAS RAMPING UP TO 7FT IN THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT WITH COOL NORTH
WIND OPPOSING THE WARM GULF STREAM. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  44  65  48  75 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  48  70  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  49  67  54  73 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  52  69  54  75 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  44  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  47  68  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  52  69  54  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

KELLY/VOLKMER








000
FXUS62 KMLB 310346 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
PRODUCE LOWS IN THE 40S EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SOUTH OF
THE CAPE. BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST LOW TEMPS ARE TRICKY AS FLOW
VEERS WITH TIME AND MODELS SHOW LESS DECOUPLING...MEANING SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS WELL. SLIGHT DEVIATION IN
WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN N/NW AND NE WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MID 40S AND MID 50S. WILL KEEP LOW 50S ALONG THE BREVARD COAST AND
MID 50S TREASURE COAST WHERE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY TO KEEP ONSHORE
COMPONENT.

HIGH THIN CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD. SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS MAY START PUSHING ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE BY SUNRISE.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM ON/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY VEERING FLOW ONSHORE AND LIMITING ANY POST FRONTAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL...THOUGH AS ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDIER
WITH MARINE STRATOCU MOVING INTO THE COAST. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OFF
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD
VOLUSIA COAST IN THE MID 60S.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. NE-E FLOW ON SAT WILL ADVECT MARINE STRATOCU WITH CLOUD BASE
NEAR 040AGL ONSHORE WITH OCNL BKN CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SCA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. FLOW VEERS NORTHEAST 15KTS BY DAYBREAK AND
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS SAT AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH REACHES THE
CAROLINA COAST.

SEAS RAMPING UP TO 7FT IN THE GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT WITH COOL NORTH
WIND OPPOSING THE WARM GULF STREAM. SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE POOR.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  44  65  48  75 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  48  70  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  49  67  54  73 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  52  69  54  75 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  44  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  47  68  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  52  69  54  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

KELLY/VOLKMER






  [top]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 310314
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1014 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS HOUR WITH THIN CI REMAINING NORTH OF
THE KEYS. WINDS ARE OSCILLATING IN SPEED LOCALLY...BUT UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE PENINSULA WE SEE FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES SLIDING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEEPENED THROUGH AT LEAST 10000 FEET AND ACCELERATED THROUGH MUCH OF
THAT DEPTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE FRONT ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANYTHING...IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS PASSES THROUGH. IN FACT...NOT A
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY.
WE DO EXPECT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO ACCELERATE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST
HAS THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS COVERED WELL. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DAMPEN AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AHEAD OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAY BE ADVERTISING CONDITIONS A BIT QUICKLY AND
POSSIBLY ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...BUT PREFERRED TO RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS AS WINDS ACCELERATE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS DECISION WAS HEAVILY BASED ON THE DEPICTION OF
THE HRRR SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AGAIN...CONDITIONS MAY BE
CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT THE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES WILL TURN MORE TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SO...RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS
WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE IDEAL ON ANY OF THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
...31/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...TWO SIGNIFICANT WIND CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A MODERATE INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK AS A RESULT OF A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSING THE KEYS. THE SECOND WILL BE A RESULT OF A BUILDING
HIGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL BRING MORE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AFTER MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFTS...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 310314
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1014 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS HOUR WITH THIN CI REMAINING NORTH OF
THE KEYS. WINDS ARE OSCILLATING IN SPEED LOCALLY...BUT UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE PENINSULA WE SEE FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES SLIDING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEEPENED THROUGH AT LEAST 10000 FEET AND ACCELERATED THROUGH MUCH OF
THAT DEPTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE FRONT ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANYTHING...IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS PASSES THROUGH. IN FACT...NOT A
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY.
WE DO EXPECT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO ACCELERATE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST
HAS THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS COVERED WELL. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DAMPEN AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AHEAD OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAY BE ADVERTISING CONDITIONS A BIT QUICKLY AND
POSSIBLY ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...BUT PREFERRED TO RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS AS WINDS ACCELERATE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS DECISION WAS HEAVILY BASED ON THE DEPICTION OF
THE HRRR SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AGAIN...CONDITIONS MAY BE
CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT THE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES WILL TURN MORE TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SO...RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS
WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE IDEAL ON ANY OF THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
...31/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...TWO SIGNIFICANT WIND CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A MODERATE INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK AS A RESULT OF A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSING THE KEYS. THE SECOND WILL BE A RESULT OF A BUILDING
HIGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL BRING MORE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AFTER MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFTS...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 310314
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1014 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS HOUR WITH THIN CI REMAINING NORTH OF
THE KEYS. WINDS ARE OSCILLATING IN SPEED LOCALLY...BUT UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE PENINSULA WE SEE FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES SLIDING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEEPENED THROUGH AT LEAST 10000 FEET AND ACCELERATED THROUGH MUCH OF
THAT DEPTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE FRONT ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANYTHING...IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS PASSES THROUGH. IN FACT...NOT A
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY.
WE DO EXPECT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO ACCELERATE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST
HAS THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS COVERED WELL. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DAMPEN AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AHEAD OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAY BE ADVERTISING CONDITIONS A BIT QUICKLY AND
POSSIBLY ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...BUT PREFERRED TO RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS AS WINDS ACCELERATE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS DECISION WAS HEAVILY BASED ON THE DEPICTION OF
THE HRRR SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AGAIN...CONDITIONS MAY BE
CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT THE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES WILL TURN MORE TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SO...RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS
WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE IDEAL ON ANY OF THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
...31/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...TWO SIGNIFICANT WIND CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A MODERATE INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK AS A RESULT OF A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSING THE KEYS. THE SECOND WILL BE A RESULT OF A BUILDING
HIGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL BRING MORE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AFTER MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFTS...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 310314
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1014 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THIS HOUR WITH THIN CI REMAINING NORTH OF
THE KEYS. WINDS ARE OSCILLATING IN SPEED LOCALLY...BUT UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE PENINSULA WE SEE FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES SLIDING SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THE NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE
DEEPENED THROUGH AT LEAST 10000 FEET AND ACCELERATED THROUGH MUCH OF
THAT DEPTH OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE FRONT ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH...IF ANYTHING...IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION AS THIS PASSES THROUGH. IN FACT...NOT A
SIGNIFICANT THERMAL MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED LOCALLY.
WE DO EXPECT NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TO ACCELERATE ALL THE WAY TO THE
SURFACE LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE AFTERNOON ZONE FORECAST
HAS THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS COVERED WELL. NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DAMPEN AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AHEAD OF A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MAY BE ADVERTISING CONDITIONS A BIT QUICKLY AND
POSSIBLY ERRING ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...BUT PREFERRED TO RAISE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS AS WINDS ACCELERATE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS DECISION WAS HEAVILY BASED ON THE DEPICTION OF
THE HRRR SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AGAIN...CONDITIONS MAY BE
CLOSER TO SUNRISE...BUT THE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG BREEZES WILL TURN MORE TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SO...RECREATIONAL BOATING CONDITIONS
WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE IDEAL ON ANY OF THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
...31/00Z TAF ISSUANCE...TWO SIGNIFICANT WIND CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE FIRST WILL BE A MODERATE INCREASE IN
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND DAYBREAK AS A RESULT OF A DRY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PASSING THE KEYS. THE SECOND WILL BE A RESULT OF A BUILDING
HIGH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WILL BRING MORE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AFTER MID MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. OTHER THAN WIND SHIFTS...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AS VFR SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 310234
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
934 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...A COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS (CIRRUS) DUE TO A STRONG UPPER JET. WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S THERE WHILE AREAS ALONG THE RIVER AND
NE FL COAST AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER DUE TO NNE WINDS OFF THE
WARMER WATERS. PATCHY FROST EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND
AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 25000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...DATA BUOY OBS INDICATE THAT AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
WINDS THIS EVE...NORTH WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN. WILL
KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS AS WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS
NELY ON SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS SEWD
AND OFF THE COAST BY SAT EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MODERATE RISK LOOKS PROBABLE FOR SATURDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  58  37  69 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  37  54  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  36  59  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  42  59  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  36  65  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  38  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PP/BN




000
FXUS62 KJAX 310234
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
934 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...A COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS (CIRRUS) DUE TO A STRONG UPPER JET. WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S THERE WHILE AREAS ALONG THE RIVER AND
NE FL COAST AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER DUE TO NNE WINDS OFF THE
WARMER WATERS. PATCHY FROST EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND
AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 25000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...DATA BUOY OBS INDICATE THAT AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
WINDS THIS EVE...NORTH WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN. WILL
KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS AS WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS
NELY ON SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS SEWD
AND OFF THE COAST BY SAT EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MODERATE RISK LOOKS PROBABLE FOR SATURDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  58  37  69 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  37  54  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  36  59  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  42  59  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  36  65  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  38  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PP/BN




000
FXUS62 KJAX 310234
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
934 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...A COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS (CIRRUS) DUE TO A STRONG UPPER JET. WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S THERE WHILE AREAS ALONG THE RIVER AND
NE FL COAST AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER DUE TO NNE WINDS OFF THE
WARMER WATERS. PATCHY FROST EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND
AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 25000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...DATA BUOY OBS INDICATE THAT AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
WINDS THIS EVE...NORTH WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN. WILL
KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS AS WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS
NELY ON SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS SEWD
AND OFF THE COAST BY SAT EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MODERATE RISK LOOKS PROBABLE FOR SATURDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  58  37  69 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  37  54  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  36  59  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  42  59  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  36  65  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  38  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PP/BN




000
FXUS62 KJAX 310234
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
934 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...A COOL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA TONIGHT PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS (CIRRUS) DUE TO A STRONG UPPER JET. WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS...MIN TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S THERE WHILE AREAS ALONG THE RIVER AND
NE FL COAST AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER DUE TO NNE WINDS OFF THE
WARMER WATERS. PATCHY FROST EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND
AREAS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AM.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH CIGS AROUND 25000 FT.

&&

.MARINE...DATA BUOY OBS INDICATE THAT AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN THE
WINDS THIS EVE...NORTH WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN. WILL
KEEP SCA GOING FOR THE OFFSHORE LEGS AS WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE WATERS. WINDS
NELY ON SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS SEWD
AND OFF THE COAST BY SAT EVENING.

RIP CURRENTS: A LOW TO MODERATE RISK LOOKS PROBABLE FOR SATURDAY
AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  58  37  69 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  37  54  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  36  59  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  42  59  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  36  65  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  38  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PP/BN



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTAE 310205
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
905 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure dominates the Southern Appalachians tonight. Light
winds and clear skies will allow temps to drop at or just below
the freezing mark over our northernmost zones and the normally
colder locations. Otherwise, mins will be in the lower to mid 30s
except near 40 along the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast cycle.

&&

.Prev Discussion [347 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
After a short period of northerly winds behind today`s cold
front, winds will quickly begin veering in approach of our next
system. This frontal system will come from a shortwave currently
entering the Western CONUS near Washington. As this shortwave gets
advected southeast into a subtle Eastern CONUS trough, it will
begin to amplify the parent trough. As the trough amplifies,
surface cyclogenesis will initiate late Saturday night over the
Central Plains and high pressure, currently over us today/tonight,
will move eastwards. What this means for our area is moderating
temperatures (highs into the mid-upper 60s by Sunday), and
increasing cloudiness as winds turn to the south by Sunday
afternoon.

As the system is passing well to our north, dynamics are not very
impressive for severe weather. In addition, the fast moving
system will provide little time for abundant moisture/temperature
return from the Central Gulf. So for this system we do not expect
severe weather. The GFS, and the Euro, are in fairly good
agreement on this setup. Most of the rain with this system should
hold off Sunday afternoon or evening, but there is a chance we
could see some showers as early as Sunday morning over the western
zones.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Cold front will exit the area early on Monday, with some
lingering showers over the eastern Big Bend to begin the day. A
cooler airmass will move in behind the front. However, with the
upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant cool down is not
anticipated. The next system will bring rain to the area by
Wednesday into Thursday as a cut-off low over the southwestern
states ejects into the Western Gulf. At the moment, most of the
guidance keeps the associated surface low just offshore, which
will limit any severe threat. However, a good soaking rain does
appear to be in the cards. Another shot of cooler air will follow
this system for the end of the week.


.Marine...
Winds are forecast to remain below headline criteria through early
Sunday. Southeasterly winds will increase on Sunday, possibly
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria briefly. Winds will shift
to the north on Monday behind a cold front with another brief
period of Small Craft conditions possible. Winds and seas will
begin to diminish by Tuesday.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week. However,
dispersion will be high for most of the region on Sunday.


.Hydrology...
River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this
morning with all of the river points below flood stage.

The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These
amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels
but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of
the forecast points.

With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early
next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the
stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday.
While timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain,
the general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event
that will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next
week or weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   35  61  43  66  58 /   0   0   0  30  50
Panama City   40  59  50  66  59 /   0   0  10  50  50
Dothan        34  57  42  63  53 /   0   0  10  60  60
Albany        31  57  39  65  55 /   0   0   0  40  60
Valdosta      34  60  42  68  57 /   0   0   0  20  60
Cross City    34  64  44  71  59 /   0   0   0  10  50
Apalachicola  39  58  51  66  61 /   0   0   0  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 310143
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
EARLY THIS EVENING - THE PATTERN ALOFT HAD A BROAD LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...A RELAXED RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TRAILED A COLD
FRONT THAT ARCED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN FL THEN STRETCHED
WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

OVERNIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE EASES EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OUT
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OUT OF
SOUTH FL AND INTO CUBA. LIMITED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AFTER DAYBREAK SAT. NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY DURING THE
NIGHT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S...FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...SUPPORT THE FORECASTS. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY
COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH. NO
UPDATES REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...
31/00Z-01/00Z. VFR PREVAILS. DRY COLD FRONT EXITS THIS EVENING...
WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO JUST FEW CLOUDS AFTER SUNRISE.
NW WINDS TURN TO NORTH THEN NE AT 6-12KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THIS
WIND INCREASE RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN EVENING EASTERLY SURGE MAY AGAIN BRING WINDS
UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE S/SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE WITH
GENERALLY N/NW WINDS IN PLACE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NE WITH THE
INCREASE IN SPEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  70  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  51  73  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  46  68  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  47  71  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  68  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  53  68  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS









000
FXUS62 KTBW 310143
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
843 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
EARLY THIS EVENING - THE PATTERN ALOFT HAD A BROAD LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...A RELAXED RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...AND A TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY SPRAWLED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND TRAILED A COLD
FRONT THAT ARCED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN FL THEN STRETCHED
WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

OVERNIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE EASES EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OUT
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WITH THE FRONT PUSHING OUT OF
SOUTH FL AND INTO CUBA. LIMITED MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AFTER DAYBREAK SAT. NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY DURING THE
NIGHT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TO MID 60S...FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH...SUPPORT THE FORECASTS. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY
COOL WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 30S FAR NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH. NO
UPDATES REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION...
31/00Z-01/00Z. VFR PREVAILS. DRY COLD FRONT EXITS THIS EVENING...
WITH FEW-SCT CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO JUST FEW CLOUDS AFTER SUNRISE.
NW WINDS TURN TO NORTH THEN NE AT 6-12KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
BUILDING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THIS
WIND INCREASE RIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX LATER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AN EVENING EASTERLY SURGE MAY AGAIN BRING WINDS
UP TO NEAR 20 KNOTS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS
THEN TURN TO THE S/SE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC. NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE UPDATE WITH
GENERALLY N/NW WINDS IN PLACE EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NE WITH THE
INCREASE IN SPEED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  70  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  51  73  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  46  68  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  47  71  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  68  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  53  68  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR BONITA
     BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-BONITA BEACH TO
     ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS
     OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
     TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON
     SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...24/HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT...25/DAVIS









  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 302337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RAISED HIGH RISK RIPS STATEMENT FOR ATLANTIC BEACHES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AT 10-15 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT BECAME ESTABLISHED
NEARLY A WEEK AGO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING SO WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
SO THIS WILL ONLY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES CHANGING LITTLE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH READINGS FROM
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMES ABSORBED WITH
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
READINGS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE COULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
IS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND THEN TRACK
ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH BUT EVEN WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION, IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT SOUTH FLORIDA
WOULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT THEN POSSIBLE BUILD BACK AGAIN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  58  70  61  75 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  71  63  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  72  61  76 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           54  74  54  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 302337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RAISED HIGH RISK RIPS STATEMENT FOR ATLANTIC BEACHES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AT 10-15 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT BECAME ESTABLISHED
NEARLY A WEEK AGO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING SO WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
SO THIS WILL ONLY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES CHANGING LITTLE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH READINGS FROM
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMES ABSORBED WITH
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
READINGS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE COULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
IS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND THEN TRACK
ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH BUT EVEN WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION, IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT SOUTH FLORIDA
WOULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT THEN POSSIBLE BUILD BACK AGAIN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  58  70  61  75 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  71  63  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  72  61  76 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           54  74  54  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 302337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RAISED HIGH RISK RIPS STATEMENT FOR ATLANTIC BEACHES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AT 10-15 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT BECAME ESTABLISHED
NEARLY A WEEK AGO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING SO WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
SO THIS WILL ONLY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES CHANGING LITTLE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH READINGS FROM
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMES ABSORBED WITH
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
READINGS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE COULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
IS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND THEN TRACK
ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH BUT EVEN WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION, IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT SOUTH FLORIDA
WOULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT THEN POSSIBLE BUILD BACK AGAIN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  58  70  61  75 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  71  63  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  72  61  76 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           54  74  54  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 302337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
RAISED HIGH RISK RIPS STATEMENT FOR ATLANTIC BEACHES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED...NO CHANGES NEEDED TO
FORECAST ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AT 10-15 KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT BECAME ESTABLISHED
NEARLY A WEEK AGO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING SO WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
SO THIS WILL ONLY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES CHANGING LITTLE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH READINGS FROM
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMES ABSORBED WITH
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
READINGS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE COULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
IS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND THEN TRACK
ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH BUT EVEN WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION, IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT SOUTH FLORIDA
WOULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT THEN POSSIBLE BUILD BACK AGAIN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  58  70  61  75 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  71  63  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  72  61  76 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           54  74  54  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 302330
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
630 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER
MORE TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY AT 10-15 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT BECAME ESTABLISHED
NEARLY A WEEK AGO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING SO WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
SO THIS WILL ONLY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES CHANGING LITTLE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH READINGS FROM
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMES ABSORBED WITH
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
READINGS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE COULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
IS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND THEN TRACK
ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH BUT EVEN WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION, IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT SOUTH FLORIDA
WOULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT THEN POSSIBLE BUILD BACK AGAIN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  58  70  61  75 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  71  63  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  72  61  76 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           54  74  54  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KTAE 302047
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Breezy northerly winds will diminish this evening as high
pressure builds in across the Southern Appalachians. Light winds
and clear skies will allow temps to drop at or just below the
freezing mark over our northernmost zones and the normally colder
locations. Otherwise, mins will be in the lower to mid 30s except
near 40 along the coast.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
After a short period of northerly winds behind today`s cold
front, winds will quickly begin veering in approach of our next
system. This frontal system will come from a shortwave currently
entering the Western CONUS near Washington. As this shortwave gets
advected southeast into a subtle Eastern CONUS trough, it will
begin to amplify the parent trough. As the trough amplifies,
surface cyclogenesis will initiate late Satruday night over the
Central Plains and high pressure, currently over us today/tonight,
will move eastwards. What this means for our area is moderating
temperatures (highs into the mid-upper 60s by Sunday), and
increasing cloudiness as winds turn to the south by Sunday
afternoon.

As the system is passing well to our north, dynamics are not very
impressive for severe weather. In addition, the fast moving
system will provide little time for abundunt moisture/temperature
return from the Central Gulf. So for this system we do not expect
severe weather. The GFS, and the Euro, are in fairly good
agreement on this setup. Most of the rain with this system should
hold off Sunday afternoon or evening, but there is a chance we
could see some showers as early as Sunday morning over the western
zones.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Cold front will exit the area early on Monday, with some
lingering showers over the eastern Big Bend to begin the day. A
cooler airmass will move in behind the front. However, with the
upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant cool down is not
anticipated. The next system will bring rain to the area by
Wednesday into Thursday as a cut-off low over the southwestern
states ejects into the Western Gulf. At the moment, most of the
guidance keeps the associated surface low just offshore, which
will limit any severe threat. However, a good soaking rain does
appear to be in the cards. Another shot of cooler air will follow
this system for the end of the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast cycle. Gusty northerly winds will diminish around
sunset.

&&

.Marine...
Winds are forecast to remain below headline criteria through early
Sunday. Southeasterly winds will increase on Sunday, possibly
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria briefly. Winds will shift
to the north on Monday behind a cold front with another brief
period of Small Craft conditions possible. Winds and seas will
begin to diminish by Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week. However,
dispersion will be high for most of the region on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...
River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this
morning with all of the river points below flood stage.

The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These
amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels
but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of
the forecast points.

With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early
next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the
stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday.
While timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain,
the general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event
that will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next
week or weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   35  61  43  66  58 /   0   0   0  30  50
Panama City   40  59  50  66  59 /   0   0  10  50  50
Dothan        34  57  42  63  53 /   0   0  10  60  60
Albany        31  57  39  65  55 /   0   0   0  40  60
Valdosta      34  60  42  68  57 /   0   0   0  20  60
Cross City    34  64  44  71  59 /   0   0   0  10  50
Apalachicola  39  58  51  66  61 /   0   0   0  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 302047
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
347 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Breezy northerly winds will diminish this evening as high
pressure builds in across the Southern Appalachians. Light winds
and clear skies will allow temps to drop at or just below the
freezing mark over our northernmost zones and the normally colder
locations. Otherwise, mins will be in the lower to mid 30s except
near 40 along the coast.


.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
After a short period of northerly winds behind today`s cold
front, winds will quickly begin veering in approach of our next
system. This frontal system will come from a shortwave currently
entering the Western CONUS near Washington. As this shortwave gets
advected southeast into a subtle Eastern CONUS trough, it will
begin to amplify the parent trough. As the trough amplifies,
surface cyclogenesis will initiate late Satruday night over the
Central Plains and high pressure, currently over us today/tonight,
will move eastwards. What this means for our area is moderating
temperatures (highs into the mid-upper 60s by Sunday), and
increasing cloudiness as winds turn to the south by Sunday
afternoon.

As the system is passing well to our north, dynamics are not very
impressive for severe weather. In addition, the fast moving
system will provide little time for abundunt moisture/temperature
return from the Central Gulf. So for this system we do not expect
severe weather. The GFS, and the Euro, are in fairly good
agreement on this setup. Most of the rain with this system should
hold off Sunday afternoon or evening, but there is a chance we
could see some showers as early as Sunday morning over the western
zones.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Cold front will exit the area early on Monday, with some
lingering showers over the eastern Big Bend to begin the day. A
cooler airmass will move in behind the front. However, with the
upper flow quickly becoming zonal, a significant cool down is not
anticipated. The next system will bring rain to the area by
Wednesday into Thursday as a cut-off low over the southwestern
states ejects into the Western Gulf. At the moment, most of the
guidance keeps the associated surface low just offshore, which
will limit any severe threat. However, a good soaking rain does
appear to be in the cards. Another shot of cooler air will follow
this system for the end of the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast cycle. Gusty northerly winds will diminish around
sunset.

&&

.Marine...
Winds are forecast to remain below headline criteria through early
Sunday. Southeasterly winds will increase on Sunday, possibly
reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria briefly. Winds will shift
to the north on Monday behind a cold front with another brief
period of Small Craft conditions possible. Winds and seas will
begin to diminish by Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week. However,
dispersion will be high for most of the region on Sunday.

&&

.Hydrology...
River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this
morning with all of the river points below flood stage.

The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These
amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels
but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of
the forecast points.

With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early
next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the
stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday.
While timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain,
the general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event
that will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next
week or weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   35  61  43  66  58 /   0   0   0  30  50
Panama City   40  59  50  66  59 /   0   0  10  50  50
Dothan        34  57  42  63  53 /   0   0  10  60  60
Albany        31  57  39  65  55 /   0   0   0  40  60
Valdosta      34  60  42  68  57 /   0   0   0  20  60
Cross City    34  64  44  71  59 /   0   0   0  10  50
Apalachicola  39  58  51  66  61 /   0   0   0  30  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 302019
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON MARKED BY A BAND OF LOW-MID CLOUDS THAT
CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH TIME. NORTH FLORIDA/S GEORGIA HAVE BEEN
SEEING SOME GUSTY N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND AREAS FROM
TITUSVILLE TO KISSIMMEE NORTHWARDS WILL SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THEM BY MID AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE EVENING. RADAR IS PICKING UP THE OCCASIONAL
SPRINKLE ALONG THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY BUT ITS QUESTIONABLE IF THESE ARE
EVEN REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE DRY PROFILE AND NARROW MOISTURE
BAND SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
BARRING A LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE GULF STREAM. SKIES CLEARING THIS
EVENING BEHIND FRONT THOUGH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TURNS
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY ADVECT SOME MARINE STRATOCU INTO THE COAST BY
DAYBREAK.

LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AROUND LAKE GEORGE. BREVARD
AND TREASURE COAST LOW TEMPS TRICKY AS FLOW VEERS WITH TIME AND
MODELS SHOW LESS DECOUPLING...MEANING SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS WELL. SLIGHT DEVIATION IN WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MID
40S AND MID 50S...AS WE SAW A FEW NIGHTS AGO WHERE TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATED 5-10 DEGREES AN HOUR WITH WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ALONG MOST OF THIS COAST WITH MARTIN
COUNTY COAST IN THE MID 50S WHERE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY TO KEEP
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

SATURDAY....SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM ON/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY VEERING FLOW ONSHORE AND LIMITING ANY POST FRONTAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL...THOUGH AS ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDIER
WITH MARINE STRATOCU MOVING INTO THE COAST. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OFF
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD
VOLUSIA COAST IN THE MID 60S.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC CST WL
KEEP LCL WINDS VEERING TO SE COMPONENT WITH CONTINUATION OF A
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WL HELP PUSH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S ALONG WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MON-TUE...(FROM PREV DISC) MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH EASTERN U.S. MON PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
IN THE AFTN/EVE MON. MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH...BUT DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND AREA IN ASCENDING REGION OF 250MB JET JUST NORTH OF
FL SHOULD AID IN ISO/SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN
AREAS AND AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST.

DRIER/COOLER AIR THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. HIGHS IN THE 70S MON
WILL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH
ON TUE.

WED-THU...RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH LOW DEPICTION
OVER THE GULF ON THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
30/12Z ECMWF KEEPS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A
EASTERN GULF LOW PLACEMENT 12Z THU MORNING. A FASTER MOVEMENT IS
SHOWN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THU MORNING BY THE 30/12Z GFS.
REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE INDICATED BY BOTH MODELS AS S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (30-50%)
IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF LOW-MID CLOUDS BRINGING 1-2HRS CIGS FL020-040 AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH REGION. AREAS FROM KISM-KTIX AND KMLB WILL SEE
PREVAILING CIGS IN THIS RANGE FROM 19Z-22Z...BUT TREASURE COAST
AND OKEECHOBEE TAFS SITES MAY BE MORE TEMPO 20Z-24Z AS BAND
CONTINUES TO ERODE. PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH
02Z. E-NE FLOW ON SAT WILL ADVECT MARINE STRATOCU FL035-040 INTO
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...BUOYS AND CMAN STATIONS SHOW GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT TO OUR NORTH...SO CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS BY LATE EVENING. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON PICKING
UP TO AROUND 20KTS OFFSHORE AND 15-20KTS NEARSHORE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLOW VEERS NORTHEAST 15KTS BY DAYBREAK AND
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS SAT AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
CAROLINA COAST.

SEAS INITIALLY 3-5FT RAMPING UP TO 5-7FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY LATE
EVENING WITH WIND SURGE COUNTERING THE GULF STREAM. SLOW SUBSIDENCE
TO 3-6FT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUN...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
CENTER MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.

MON-TUE...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW UP TO 15-20 KTS INTO MON
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFT WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N/NW AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO MON NIGHT. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHORT LIVED POST FRONTAL DRYING THIS AFTERNOON WL BE REPLACED BY
DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK. INCRSG MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MON WL LEAD TO EVENTUAL
RAIN CHCS WITH NEXT APCHG FRONT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  44  65  48  75 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  48  70  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  49  67  54  73 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  52  69  54  75 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  44  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  47  68  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  52  69  54  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST





000
FXUS62 KMLB 302019
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
319 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON MARKED BY A BAND OF LOW-MID CLOUDS THAT
CONTINUES TO ERODE WITH TIME. NORTH FLORIDA/S GEORGIA HAVE BEEN
SEEING SOME GUSTY N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND AREAS FROM
TITUSVILLE TO KISSIMMEE NORTHWARDS WILL SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THEM BY MID AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT CURRENTLY TIMED TO CLEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY LATE EVENING. RADAR IS PICKING UP THE OCCASIONAL
SPRINKLE ALONG THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY BUT ITS QUESTIONABLE IF THESE ARE
EVEN REACHING THE GROUND GIVEN THE DRY PROFILE AND NARROW MOISTURE
BAND SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
BARRING A LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE GULF STREAM. SKIES CLEARING THIS
EVENING BEHIND FRONT THOUGH FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE TURNS
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY ADVECT SOME MARINE STRATOCU INTO THE COAST BY
DAYBREAK.

LOWS OVER THE INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MID 40S WITH A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AROUND LAKE GEORGE. BREVARD
AND TREASURE COAST LOW TEMPS TRICKY AS FLOW VEERS WITH TIME AND
MODELS SHOW LESS DECOUPLING...MEANING SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AS WELL. SLIGHT DEVIATION IN WIND DIRECTION BETWEEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST WILL MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MID
40S AND MID 50S...AS WE SAW A FEW NIGHTS AGO WHERE TEMPERATURES
FLUCTUATED 5-10 DEGREES AN HOUR WITH WIND DIRECTION. FOR NOW WILL
KEEP UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ALONG MOST OF THIS COAST WITH MARTIN
COUNTY COAST IN THE MID 50S WHERE FLOW IS MORE LIKELY TO KEEP
ONSHORE COMPONENT.

SATURDAY....SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST FROM ON/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY VEERING FLOW ONSHORE AND LIMITING ANY POST FRONTAL COOL AIR
ADVECTION. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVERALL...THOUGH AS ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE COASTAL AREAS WILL LIKELY BE CLOUDIER
WITH MARINE STRATOCU MOVING INTO THE COAST. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES OFF
NORMAL IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70...THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD
VOLUSIA COAST IN THE MID 60S.

SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATING OFFSHORE THE MID ATLC CST WL
KEEP LCL WINDS VEERING TO SE COMPONENT WITH CONTINUATION OF A
WARMING TREND. AFTERNOON WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WL HELP PUSH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 70S ALONG WITH A DRY FORECAST AND PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.

MON-TUE...(FROM PREV DISC) MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH EASTERN U.S. MON PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
IN THE AFTN/EVE MON. MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH...BUT DECENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY AND AREA IN ASCENDING REGION OF 250MB JET JUST NORTH OF
FL SHOULD AID IN ISO/SCT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 PERCENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN
AREAS AND AROUND 20 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST.

DRIER/COOLER AIR THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. HIGHS IN THE 70S MON
WILL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH
ON TUE.

WED-THU...RUN TO RUN TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH LOW DEPICTION
OVER THE GULF ON THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE
30/12Z ECMWF KEEPS SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A
EASTERN GULF LOW PLACEMENT 12Z THU MORNING. A FASTER MOVEMENT IS
SHOWN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THU MORNING BY THE 30/12Z GFS.
REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD
ARE INDICATED BY BOTH MODELS AS S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW
INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (30-50%)
IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BAND OF LOW-MID CLOUDS BRINGING 1-2HRS CIGS FL020-040 AS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH REGION. AREAS FROM KISM-KTIX AND KMLB WILL SEE
PREVAILING CIGS IN THIS RANGE FROM 19Z-22Z...BUT TREASURE COAST
AND OKEECHOBEE TAFS SITES MAY BE MORE TEMPO 20Z-24Z AS BAND
CONTINUES TO ERODE. PERIOD OF GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND FRONT THROUGH
02Z. E-NE FLOW ON SAT WILL ADVECT MARINE STRATOCU FL035-040 INTO
COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...BUOYS AND CMAN STATIONS SHOW GUSTY NW WINDS
DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT TO OUR NORTH...SO CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS
ON TRACK FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT AS FRONT CLEARS THE WATERS BY LATE EVENING. WINDS BECOMING
NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND FRONT THROUGH REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON PICKING
UP TO AROUND 20KTS OFFSHORE AND 15-20KTS NEARSHORE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. FLOW VEERS NORTHEAST 15KTS BY DAYBREAK AND
EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS SAT AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
CAROLINA COAST.

SEAS INITIALLY 3-5FT RAMPING UP TO 5-7FT IN THE GULF STREAM BY LATE
EVENING WITH WIND SURGE COUNTERING THE GULF STREAM. SLOW SUBSIDENCE
TO 3-6FT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SUN...WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
CENTER MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.

MON-TUE...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW UP TO 15-20 KTS INTO MON
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFT WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N/NW AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO MON NIGHT. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SHORT LIVED POST FRONTAL DRYING THIS AFTERNOON WL BE REPLACED BY
DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT
WEEK. INCRSG MOISTURE LATE SUNDAY INTO MON WL LEAD TO EVENTUAL
RAIN CHCS WITH NEXT APCHG FRONT DURING MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  44  65  48  75 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  48  70  49  77 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  49  67  54  73 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  52  69  54  75 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  44  69  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  45  68  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  47  68  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  52  69  54  75 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOSES
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST






000
FXUS62 KJAX 301950
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES OVER THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALSO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAINLY NLY TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT WILL ENABLE LOWS TO DROP
OFF TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT TOTALLY GO
CALM...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FROST TO
DEVELOP BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP TO FREEZING
FOR A SHORT DURATION...LESS THAN 2 HRS...IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS BUT NO FREEZE WARNING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD MORNING START...MOSTLY SUNNY TO OCNL PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS PROBABLY MAKING INROADS
TO OUR SE ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. TEMPS WILL A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWER THICKNESS VALUES AND ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 TO
OCNL 15 MPH.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXIT
TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS INITIAL APPROACH...WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP. AFTER A SEASONABLY
COOL START SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NICELY BY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS SE GA...WITH
LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST OF NE FL.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ENTERING SE GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CROSSING
NE FL MONDAY MORNING...EXITING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTN. DEEP
MOISTURE IS NOT THAT PLENTIFUL...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. GIVEN CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR SE GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FOR NE FL
MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
AS THE FRONT EXITS. CLOUDS AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
OF SE GA BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR BE FL...AND
AROUND 70 FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. CHILLY LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 55-60 SE GA TO LOWER/MID 60S NE FL.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES. GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL...WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. NWLY WINDS NEAR 10-15G20KT BECOMING NLY AND
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NELY AROUND 10
KT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NWLY WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASCAT PASS LATE THIS MORNING DOES SUPPORT SCA CONDS BEYOND ABOUT 40
NM FROM SHORE SO SCA LOOKS GOOD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS AS WINDS TURN MORE NNW TO N THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. REASONABLY CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE THROUGH 12Z SAT. WINDS NELY ON
SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS SEWD AND OFF THE
COAST BY SAT EVENING.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING AND HIGH
PRES MOVES N OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS QUICKLY
ONSHORE AGAIN TUE AND WED AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SFC LOW
APPROACH FROM THE W.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK
LOOKS PROBABLE FOR SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  58  37  69 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  37  54  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  36  59  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  42  59  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  36  65  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  38  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ALLEN/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 301950
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES OVER THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALSO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAINLY NLY TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT WILL ENABLE LOWS TO DROP
OFF TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT TOTALLY GO
CALM...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FROST TO
DEVELOP BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP TO FREEZING
FOR A SHORT DURATION...LESS THAN 2 HRS...IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS BUT NO FREEZE WARNING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD MORNING START...MOSTLY SUNNY TO OCNL PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS PROBABLY MAKING INROADS
TO OUR SE ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. TEMPS WILL A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWER THICKNESS VALUES AND ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 TO
OCNL 15 MPH.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXIT
TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS INITIAL APPROACH...WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP. AFTER A SEASONABLY
COOL START SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NICELY BY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS SE GA...WITH
LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST OF NE FL.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ENTERING SE GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CROSSING
NE FL MONDAY MORNING...EXITING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTN. DEEP
MOISTURE IS NOT THAT PLENTIFUL...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. GIVEN CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR SE GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FOR NE FL
MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
AS THE FRONT EXITS. CLOUDS AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
OF SE GA BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR BE FL...AND
AROUND 70 FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. CHILLY LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 55-60 SE GA TO LOWER/MID 60S NE FL.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES. GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL...WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. NWLY WINDS NEAR 10-15G20KT BECOMING NLY AND
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NELY AROUND 10
KT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NWLY WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASCAT PASS LATE THIS MORNING DOES SUPPORT SCA CONDS BEYOND ABOUT 40
NM FROM SHORE SO SCA LOOKS GOOD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS AS WINDS TURN MORE NNW TO N THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. REASONABLY CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE THROUGH 12Z SAT. WINDS NELY ON
SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS SEWD AND OFF THE
COAST BY SAT EVENING.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING AND HIGH
PRES MOVES N OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS QUICKLY
ONSHORE AGAIN TUE AND WED AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SFC LOW
APPROACH FROM THE W.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK
LOOKS PROBABLE FOR SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  58  37  69 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  37  54  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  36  59  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  42  59  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  36  65  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  38  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ALLEN/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 301950
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES OVER THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALSO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAINLY NLY TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT WILL ENABLE LOWS TO DROP
OFF TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT TOTALLY GO
CALM...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FROST TO
DEVELOP BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP TO FREEZING
FOR A SHORT DURATION...LESS THAN 2 HRS...IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS BUT NO FREEZE WARNING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD MORNING START...MOSTLY SUNNY TO OCNL PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS PROBABLY MAKING INROADS
TO OUR SE ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. TEMPS WILL A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWER THICKNESS VALUES AND ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 TO
OCNL 15 MPH.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXIT
TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS INITIAL APPROACH...WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP. AFTER A SEASONABLY
COOL START SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NICELY BY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS SE GA...WITH
LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST OF NE FL.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ENTERING SE GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CROSSING
NE FL MONDAY MORNING...EXITING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTN. DEEP
MOISTURE IS NOT THAT PLENTIFUL...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. GIVEN CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR SE GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FOR NE FL
MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
AS THE FRONT EXITS. CLOUDS AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
OF SE GA BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR BE FL...AND
AROUND 70 FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. CHILLY LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 55-60 SE GA TO LOWER/MID 60S NE FL.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES. GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL...WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. NWLY WINDS NEAR 10-15G20KT BECOMING NLY AND
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NELY AROUND 10
KT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NWLY WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASCAT PASS LATE THIS MORNING DOES SUPPORT SCA CONDS BEYOND ABOUT 40
NM FROM SHORE SO SCA LOOKS GOOD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS AS WINDS TURN MORE NNW TO N THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. REASONABLY CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE THROUGH 12Z SAT. WINDS NELY ON
SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS SEWD AND OFF THE
COAST BY SAT EVENING.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING AND HIGH
PRES MOVES N OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS QUICKLY
ONSHORE AGAIN TUE AND WED AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SFC LOW
APPROACH FROM THE W.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK
LOOKS PROBABLE FOR SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  58  37  69 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  37  54  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  36  59  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  42  59  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  36  65  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  38  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ALLEN/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 301950
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.NEAR TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL INTO THE REGION. SFC
HIGH PRES OVER THE TN AND OHIO VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALSO MOVE DOWNSTREAM AND BEGIN TO SPREAD HIGH
CLOUDS INTO THE REGION BY SAT MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. LOW LEVEL
WINDS MAINLY NLY TONIGHT AND BECOMING LIGHT WILL ENABLE LOWS TO DROP
OFF TO THE LOWER AND MID 30S. THOUGH WINDS MAY NOT TOTALLY GO
CALM...TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FROST TO
DEVELOP BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY DIP TO FREEZING
FOR A SHORT DURATION...LESS THAN 2 HRS...IN THE NORMALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS BUT NO FREEZE WARNING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY...AFTER A COLD MORNING START...MOSTLY SUNNY TO OCNL PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS PROBABLY MAKING INROADS
TO OUR SE ZONES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN. TEMPS WILL A BIT
COOLER WITH LOWER THICKNESS VALUES AND ONSHORE FLOW AROUND 10 TO
OCNL 15 MPH.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO EXIT
TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS INITIAL APPROACH...WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR A WARMUP. AFTER A SEASONABLY
COOL START SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
NICELY BY SUNDAY AFTN...WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 ACROSS SE GA...WITH
LOWER/MID 70S FOR MOST OF NE FL.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...ENTERING SE GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND CROSSING
NE FL MONDAY MORNING...EXITING TO THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTN. DEEP
MOISTURE IS NOT THAT PLENTIFUL...BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A DECENT
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. GIVEN CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY FOR SE GA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AND FOR NE FL
MONDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
AS THE FRONT EXITS. CLOUDS AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S. HIGHS MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
OF SE GA BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE MID/UPPER 60S FOR BE FL...AND
AROUND 70 FOR NORTH CENTRAL FL.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. CHILLY LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
WITH MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO THE MID 40S COAST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 55-60 SE GA TO LOWER/MID 60S NE FL.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT MID LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN
ENHANCED PRECIP CHANCES. GIVEN SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF...WILL KEEP POPS CHANCE. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL...WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. NWLY WINDS NEAR 10-15G20KT BECOMING NLY AND
DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME NELY AROUND 10
KT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...NWLY WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ASCAT PASS LATE THIS MORNING DOES SUPPORT SCA CONDS BEYOND ABOUT 40
NM FROM SHORE SO SCA LOOKS GOOD. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN WIND SPEEDS AS WINDS TURN MORE NNW TO N THIS EVENING...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN. REASONABLY CONFIDENT OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT
SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA HEADLINE THROUGH 12Z SAT. WINDS NELY ON
SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASING AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS SEWD AND OFF THE
COAST BY SAT EVENING.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. COLD FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA MON AFTN/EVENING AND HIGH
PRES MOVES N OF THE AREA MON NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS QUICKLY
ONSHORE AGAIN TUE AND WED AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND SFC LOW
APPROACH FROM THE W.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW TO MODERATE RISK
LOOKS PROBABLE FOR SATURDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  32  58  37  69 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  37  54  44  65 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  36  59  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  42  59  50  70 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  36  65  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  38  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ALLEN/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301946
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
246 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A ~1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS BUILDING EASTWARD INTO
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE THE LAST REMNANTS OF A LOW TROUGH
DISSIPATES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH. THIS TRAJECTORY IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
DOWN...WITH HIGHS NEAR 70...AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. SKIES
HAVE BEEN SUNNY WITH ONLY A FEW SHREDS OF CIRRUS PASSING RAPIDLY
EASTWARD.

FORECAST - THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL INCREASE VERY LATE TONIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST...BECOMING BREEZY. ANOTHER SUBTLE SHOT OF COOLER AIR SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL ON SATURDAY WITH DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO
NONE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO TREND SHARPLY UPWARDS ABOVE
NORMAL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS MORE
EAST OF OUR AREA...DIRECTING OUR WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WARM
MOIST ADVECTION ALONG WITH MARITIME CLOUD LINES JUSTIFIES A SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND A LOW MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THAT LOW SHIFTS OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC...ANOTHER HIGH CELL WILL FOLLOW EASTWARD BEHIND IT. THE
REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED DOWN INTO THE KEYS
AREA...HEADING INTO MID WEEK. AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS
JUSTIFIED. VERY LITTLE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REACH OUR AREA...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AFTER SURGING OUT OF THE EAST TO NEAR BREEZY MID WEEK...WINDS WILL
RELAX SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND A LOW DEEPENS WILL MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...WEAKENING OUT OF THE SOUTH. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A GOOD COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT
THROUGH THE KEYS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WILL ACCELERATE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF KEYS WATERS FROM EARLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
WINDS GRADUALLY VEER EASTERLY. WINDS WILL COLLAPSE SUNDAY NIGHT AS
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND A LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PICK UP AGAIN AS YET ANOTHER
HIGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ATLANTIC...AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVAILING AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN
8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. THEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE EARLY MORNING AND RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KMFL 301936
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
236 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT BECAME ESTABLISHED
NEARLY A WEEK AGO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING SO WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
SO THIS WILL ONLY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES CHANGING LITTLE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH READINGS FROM
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMES ABSORBED WITH
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
READINGS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE COULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
IS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND THEN TRACK
ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH BUT EVEN WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION, IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT SOUTH FLORIDA
WOULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT THEN POSSIBLE BUILD BACK AGAIN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  58  70  61  75 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  71  63  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  72  61  76 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           54  74  54  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301936
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
236 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THAT BECAME ESTABLISHED
NEARLY A WEEK AGO WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. DUE TO
THE FACT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING SO WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, MOST OF THE COLD AIR WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH
SO THIS WILL ONLY BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES CHANGING LITTLE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH READINGS FROM
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BECOMES ABSORBED WITH
AN UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE SURFACE FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SIGNIFICANT WARMING WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN CURRENT
READINGS. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTENING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THERE COULD BE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH
IS DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO
AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF AND THEN TRACK
ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL FLORIDA EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF HAS THE LOW FARTHER TO THE NORTH BUT EVEN WITH THE
GFS SOLUTION, IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT SOUTH FLORIDA
WOULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY BUT THEN POSSIBLE BUILD BACK AGAIN TO ADVISORY LEVELS ON
TUESDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  58  70  61  75 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  71  63  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  72  61  76 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           54  74  54  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KTBW 301928
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
228 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
STRONG REX BLOCK DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WITH MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM U/L FLOW OVERRIDING THE BLOCK ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
TO WESTERN CANADA...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.  STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE HAS CUTOFF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BAJA CA IN SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE BLOCK
WITH QUASI ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.  AN U/L
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WITH A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ATTM...AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.  WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND U/L
DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH...DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL...AND UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE
PROGRESSED HALFWAY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL PUSH OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND THE TRAILING
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND PROGRESS EAST. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THIS LAST SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MORE ZONAL COMPARED TO THE
GFS LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE BIG
BEND OF FLORIDA TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC.

EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH OF THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DYNAMICS OVER SEVERAL MODEL RUNS TO SEE WHAT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THERE MAY BE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 025-030 WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAINLY AFFECT TPA/PIE/SRQ/LAL FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE
HARBOR.  GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ALSO AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  70  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  51  73  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  46  68  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  48  71  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  68  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  68  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 301928
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
228 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
STRONG REX BLOCK DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. WITH MAIN
NORTHERN STREAM U/L FLOW OVERRIDING THE BLOCK ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
TO WESTERN CANADA...AND ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST.  STRONG U/L DISTURBANCE HAS CUTOFF OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND BAJA CA IN SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE BLOCK
WITH QUASI ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S.  AN U/L
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT WITH A
DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE NORTH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ATTM...AND WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING.  WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND U/L
DYNAMICS WELL TO THE NORTH...DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER COOLER AIR ADVECTING ACROSS
THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID 40S CENTRAL...AND UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH.  HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
60S NORTH TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE
PROGRESSED HALFWAY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL PUSH OFF THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST AND THE TRAILING
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY.

THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO AND PROGRESS EAST. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF.
EITHER WAY...IT APPEARS THIS LAST SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF. THE ECMWF ALSO KEEPS THE LOW TRACK MORE ZONAL COMPARED TO THE
GFS LIFTING THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD FROM MEXICO THROUGH THE BIG
BEND OF FLORIDA TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC.

EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH EACH OF THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES. WE WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR DYNAMICS OVER SEVERAL MODEL RUNS TO SEE WHAT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL THERE MAY BE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS 025-030 WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL MAINLY AFFECT TPA/PIE/SRQ/LAL FOR 1 TO 2 HOURS.  OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TAMPA BAY AND CHARLOTTE
HARBOR.  GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON SATURDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO
THE EAST AT AROUND 15 KNOTS. WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ALSO AROUND ADVISORY LEVELS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  46  70  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  51  73  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  46  68  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  48  71  52  74 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  68  44  75 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  54  68  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
     BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-ENGLEWOOD
     TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
     SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
     RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KMFL 301734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1234 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT, WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES INTO SATURDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST. THEREFORE,
EXPECT STRONGER SURFACE NE TO E WINDS OF 10-15 KTS DURING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO MORNING UPDATES. THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP AT 85H AND ANOTHER ONE AT 60H SO THE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NIL. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
CEDAR KEY IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT BECOMES
DIFFUSE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WIND OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...

SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST COAST HAVE MEANDERED INLAND THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME BKN CIGS, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER
TODAY, WITH NO IMPACTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE
TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK...

THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY TONIGHT...REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE THE WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
WHILE KEEPING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO HAVE REMOVED THE POPS OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS WEEKEND WHILE REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS DRY.

THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL THEN QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY A DRY FRONT AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BY END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER WORKING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY
TONIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MOSTLY LOW TODAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL THEN BE ON AN INCREASE OVER REST
OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ALONG WITH THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
REMAINING IN THE MID 20S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO THE 40S TO 50S THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  57  72  61  76 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  73  63  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            60  74  62  77 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           53  75  54  78 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 301734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1234 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT, WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS DAWN.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES INTO SATURDAY, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST. THEREFORE,
EXPECT STRONGER SURFACE NE TO E WINDS OF 10-15 KTS DURING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO MORNING UPDATES. THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP AT 85H AND ANOTHER ONE AT 60H SO THE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NIL. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
CEDAR KEY IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT BECOMES
DIFFUSE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WIND OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...

SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST COAST HAVE MEANDERED INLAND THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME BKN CIGS, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER
TODAY, WITH NO IMPACTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE
TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK...

THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY TONIGHT...REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE THE WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
WHILE KEEPING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO HAVE REMOVED THE POPS OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS WEEKEND WHILE REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS DRY.

THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL THEN QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY A DRY FRONT AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BY END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER WORKING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY
TONIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MOSTLY LOW TODAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL THEN BE ON AN INCREASE OVER REST
OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ALONG WITH THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
REMAINING IN THE MID 20S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO THE 40S TO 50S THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  57  72  61  76 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  73  63  76 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            60  74  62  77 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           53  75  54  78 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301541
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1041 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DESCENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
OUT THE WEAK TAIL END OF A TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS FLORIDA. LOCAL
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY UP NEAR 70 DEGREES. DEW POINTS REMAIN DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S.
NEARLY ALL CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF A CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EAST OF THE UPPER KEYS...INTO THE OUTER
STRAITS OF THE LOWER KEYS.

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON) - SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TREND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS...AND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK TROUGH DISSIPATES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NIL DUE TO DRY STABLE CONDITIONS. THE ONGOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH WASHES OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. NO
CAUTIONS WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE STILL ON TAP TO
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. CAUTIONS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR INCREASING WINDS. A FEW HOURS OF NEAR 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES MADE IN THE MORNING
MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
LATER TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RANGE BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 301541
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1041 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DESCENDING SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND IN THE PROCESS OF WASHING
OUT THE WEAK TAIL END OF A TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS FLORIDA. LOCAL
WINDS ARE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WITH TEMPERATURES
ALREADY UP NEAR 70 DEGREES. DEW POINTS REMAIN DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S.
NEARLY ALL CLOUD COVER IS LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST OF A CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM EAST OF THE UPPER KEYS...INTO THE OUTER
STRAITS OF THE LOWER KEYS.

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON) - SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TREND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SOUTH FLORIDA WARMS...AND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK TROUGH DISSIPATES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NIL DUE TO DRY STABLE CONDITIONS. THE ONGOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL GRADUALLY BACK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WEAK TROUGH WASHES OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. NO
CAUTIONS WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE STILL ON TAP TO
SURGE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. CAUTIONS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT FOR INCREASING WINDS. A FEW HOURS OF NEAR 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES MADE IN THE MORNING
MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
LATER TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND RANGE BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301520
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1020 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO MORNING UPDATES. THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP AT 85H AND ANOTHER ONE AT 60H SO THE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NIL. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
CEDAR KEY IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT BECOMES
DIFFUSE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WIND OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...

SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST COAST HAVE MEANDERED INLAND THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME BKN CIGS, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER
TODAY, WITH NO IMPACTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE
TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

.DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK...

.THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY TONIGHT...REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE THE WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
WHILE KEEPING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO HAVE REMOVED THE POPS OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS WEEKEND WHILE REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS DRY.

THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL THEN QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY A DRY FRONT AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BY END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER WORKING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY
TONIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MOSTLY LOW TODAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL THEN BE ON AN INCREASE OVER REST
OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ALONG WITH THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
REMAINING IN THE MID 20S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO THE 40S TO 50S THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  57  72  61 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  59  73  63 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  60  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           73  53  75  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301520
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1020 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO MORNING UPDATES. THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE CAP AT 85H AND ANOTHER ONE AT 60H SO THE RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NIL. A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO
CEDAR KEY IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGE WILL
BE A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT BECOMES
DIFFUSE. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE WIND OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 713 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

AVIATION...

SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST COAST HAVE MEANDERED INLAND THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME BKN CIGS, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER
TODAY, WITH NO IMPACTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE
TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

.DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK...

.THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY TONIGHT...REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE THE WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
WHILE KEEPING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO HAVE REMOVED THE POPS OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS WEEKEND WHILE REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS DRY.

THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL THEN QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY A DRY FRONT AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BY END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER WORKING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY
TONIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MOSTLY LOW TODAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL THEN BE ON AN INCREASE OVER REST
OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ALONG WITH THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
REMAINING IN THE MID 20S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO THE 40S TO 50S THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  57  72  61 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  59  73  63 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  60  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           73  53  75  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KJAX 301458
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
958 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR BRUNSWICK GA TO NEAR/OR
JUST S OF LIVE OAK. WEAK RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE
FRONT...RECENTLY OVER MARION COUNTY AT 950 AM...BUT NO MEASURABLE
PRECIP EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD
REST OF TODAY WITH THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NE FL CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTN. BY AFTER 3 PM...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE WX THOUGH THIN HIGH CLOUDS MAY REMAIN. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER THE NRN AREA
WITH LOWER TO MID 60S S AREAS. BREEZY NWLY WINDS NEAR 10-15G20MPH
EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPDATES TO THE FCST MAINLY FOR
TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOR NE FL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS THEN VFR. LLWS THREAT HAS NOW PASSED WITH LATEST
VWP AT JAX AND VAX SHOWING NNW TO NW 25 KT AT 1-2 KFT. NWLY WINDS
NEAR 10-15G20KT...DECREASING TO ABOUT 5 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GUSTY W TO NW EARLY TODAY...TURNING
MORE NWLY TO N THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW END SCA CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WATERS CONTINUING. SCEC WILL BE HEADLINED NEARSHORE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE ADVISORY COULD POSSIBLY BE
EXTENDED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING BUT WILL DEFER TO
AFTERNOON PACKAGE WHETHER TO MAKE THAT CHANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  57  39  55  46 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  61  36  60  46 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  62  43  59  49 /  10   0   0  10
GNV  64  34  65  45 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  66  36  67  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ALLEN/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KJAX 301458
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
958 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH SFC
ANALYSIS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR BRUNSWICK GA TO NEAR/OR
JUST S OF LIVE OAK. WEAK RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED ALONG THE
FRONT...RECENTLY OVER MARION COUNTY AT 950 AM...BUT NO MEASURABLE
PRECIP EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SEWD
REST OF TODAY WITH THE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE NE FL CLEARING
THROUGH THE AFTN. BY AFTER 3 PM...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE THE WX THOUGH THIN HIGH CLOUDS MAY REMAIN. MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 OVER THE NRN AREA
WITH LOWER TO MID 60S S AREAS. BREEZY NWLY WINDS NEAR 10-15G20MPH
EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. UPDATES TO THE FCST MAINLY FOR
TEMPS AND SKY COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOR NE FL FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS THEN VFR. LLWS THREAT HAS NOW PASSED WITH LATEST
VWP AT JAX AND VAX SHOWING NNW TO NW 25 KT AT 1-2 KFT. NWLY WINDS
NEAR 10-15G20KT...DECREASING TO ABOUT 5 KT THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS GUSTY W TO NW EARLY TODAY...TURNING
MORE NWLY TO N THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW END SCA CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE WATERS CONTINUING. SCEC WILL BE HEADLINED NEARSHORE.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE ADVISORY COULD POSSIBLY BE
EXTENDED LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING BUT WILL DEFER TO
AFTERNOON PACKAGE WHETHER TO MAKE THAT CHANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  58  33  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  57  39  55  46 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  61  36  60  46 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  62  43  59  49 /  10   0   0  10
GNV  64  34  65  45 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  66  36  67  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHASHY/ALLEN/GUILLET




000
FXUS62 KTBW 301421
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
921 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PUSH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. FRONT HAS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND NATURE COAST...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH DRIER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID
40S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. NOT ANTICIPATING
FROST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS
TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.  SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AND VEERING EAST NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY...THEN VEERING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS FRONT AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ALONG
THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 301421
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
921 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PUSH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. FRONT HAS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND NATURE COAST...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH DRIER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID
40S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. NOT ANTICIPATING
FROST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS
TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.  SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AND VEERING EAST NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY...THEN VEERING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS FRONT AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ALONG
THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 301421
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
921 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PUSH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. FRONT HAS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND NATURE COAST...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH DRIER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID
40S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. NOT ANTICIPATING
FROST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS
TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.  SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AND VEERING EAST NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY...THEN VEERING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS FRONT AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ALONG
THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 301421
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
921 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PUSH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. FRONT HAS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. MAY SEE A BRIEF SPRINKLE THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND NATURE COAST...BUT MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH DRIER SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ADVECTING OVER THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...LOWER TO MID
40S CENTRAL...AND UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. NOT ANTICIPATING
FROST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE
FROST DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDINESS
TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.  SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK SIDE OF
A DRY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN
SLIGHTLY DECREASING AND VEERING EAST NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 15
KNOTS AND GUSTY ON SUNDAY...THEN VEERING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THIS FRONT AND INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS ALONG
THE OUTER COASTAL ZONES.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KMLB 301401
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BIG BEND
REGION TO NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY A
THIN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND A QUICK NW WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT.

BAND HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER LAND AS IT MOVER FURTHER SOUTH AND BOTH
THE WRF AND HRRR SHOW LITTLE MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS AT TAMPA AND XMR
SHOWING PWATS AROUND 0.68" AND A GOOD INVERSION AROUND 3500FT. WHILE
A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULED OUT...WILL KEEP FORECAST OVER LAND DRY
WITH MAIN IMPACTS A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH THE FRONT MOVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT/WIND SHIFT ARRIVING INTO REGION AROUND
MIDDAY...WILL HOLD HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
IN THE MID 60S...WITH UPPER 60S/AROUND 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. POINTS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
1-2HRS OF CIGS FL020-030 TO EACH SITE AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM N-S
AFTER 14Z. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE. WIND SHIFT TO N-NW
WITH G20KTS BEHIND FRONT STARTING AROUND 16Z FOR KLEE-KDAB AND BY
23Z FOR KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW 10-15KTS THIS MORNING ALONG COAST AND
BUOYS AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NW 15-20KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE BY MIDDAY AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOLID 20KTS EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS BY THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. SEAS
INITIALLY 3-5FT THIS MORNING RAMPING UP TO 5-7FT IN THE ADVISORY
AREA BY SUNSET AS NORTH WIND SURGE COUNTERS THE GULF STREAM.

NO CHANGES TO ONGOING ADVISORIES WHICH START AROUND MIDDAY FOR THE
OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS...EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE OFFSHORE
BREVARD WATERS...AND THIS EVENING FOR THE TREASURE COAST WATERS
INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE PORTION OF THE GULFSTREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD  COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

MOSES/PENDERGRAST







000
FXUS62 KMLB 301401
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE BIG BEND
REGION TO NORTH OF JACKSONVILLE EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY A
THIN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND A QUICK NW WIND SHIFT BEHIND IT.

BAND HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER LAND AS IT MOVER FURTHER SOUTH AND BOTH
THE WRF AND HRRR SHOW LITTLE MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS AT TAMPA AND XMR
SHOWING PWATS AROUND 0.68" AND A GOOD INVERSION AROUND 3500FT. WHILE
A SPRINKLE CAN`T BE RULED OUT...WILL KEEP FORECAST OVER LAND DRY
WITH MAIN IMPACTS A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH THE FRONT MOVING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN CURRENT TIMING OF FRONT/WIND SHIFT ARRIVING INTO REGION AROUND
MIDDAY...WILL HOLD HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES
IN THE MID 60S...WITH UPPER 60S/AROUND 70S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. POINTS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REACH INTO THE LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING
1-2HRS OF CIGS FL020-030 TO EACH SITE AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM N-S
AFTER 14Z. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH PASSAGE. WIND SHIFT TO N-NW
WITH G20KTS BEHIND FRONT STARTING AROUND 16Z FOR KLEE-KDAB AND BY
23Z FOR KSUA.

&&

.MARINE...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW 10-15KTS THIS MORNING ALONG COAST AND
BUOYS AHEAD OF WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH PENINSULA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NW 15-20KTS NORTH OF THE CAPE BY MIDDAY AND OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOLID 20KTS EXPECTED
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS BY THIS EVENING AS WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. SEAS
INITIALLY 3-5FT THIS MORNING RAMPING UP TO 5-7FT IN THE ADVISORY
AREA BY SUNSET AS NORTH WIND SURGE COUNTERS THE GULF STREAM.

NO CHANGES TO ONGOING ADVISORIES WHICH START AROUND MIDDAY FOR THE
OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS...EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE OFFSHORE
BREVARD WATERS...AND THIS EVENING FOR THE TREASURE COAST WATERS
INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE PORTION OF THE GULFSTREAM.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD  COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

MOSES/PENDERGRAST






000
FXUS62 KMFL 301213
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
713 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST COAST HAVE MEANDERED INLAND THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME BKN CIGS, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER
TODAY, WITH NO IMPACTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE
TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

..DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK...

..THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY TONIGHT...REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE THE WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
WHILE KEEPING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO HAVE REMOVED THE POPS OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS WEEKEND WHILE REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS DRY.

THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL THEN QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY A DRY FRONT AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BY END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER WORKING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY
TONIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MOSTLY LOW TODAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL THEN BE ON AN INCREASE OVER REST
OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ALONG WITH THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
REMAINING IN THE MID 20S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO THE 40S TO 50S THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  57  72  61 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  59  73  63 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  60  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           73  53  75  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301213
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
713 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE EAST COAST HAVE MEANDERED INLAND THIS
MORNING PRODUCING SOME BKN CIGS, BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE
MORNING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATER
TODAY, WITH NO IMPACTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE N AND NE
TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015/

..DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK...

..THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY TONIGHT...REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FROM
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE THE WINDS TO
BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS
WHILE KEEPING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO HAVE REMOVED THE POPS OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS WEEKEND WHILE REST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS DRY.

THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL THEN QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY A DRY FRONT AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE
WIND FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BY END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER WORKING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY
TONIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MOSTLY LOW TODAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL THEN BE ON AN INCREASE OVER REST
OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ALONG WITH THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
REMAINING IN THE MID 20S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO THE 40S TO 50S THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  57  72  61 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  59  73  63 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  60  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           73  53  75  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KKEY 301120
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
620 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301120
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
620 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301120
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
620 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301120
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
620 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300937
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
437 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR AND WILL QUICKLY SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE...MARKED
EARLIER BY A FEW SPRINKLES...IS NOW MOSTLY JUST VIRGA WITH NO
STATIONS REPORTING ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL HOWEVER TURN MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING AS
THE FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHWARD. A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS...THUS
POPS WILL REMAIN AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS THIS MORNING WITH NO CHANCE
FOR RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO 60 ACROSS SE GA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT. COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. A LIGHT AND BRIEF FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT A FEW NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. THE
SURFACE DOES NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SO A MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZE
IS NOT LIKELY. PATCHY TO POSSIBLY AREAS OF FROST THOUGH CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTLINE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP COASTAL
COMMUNITIES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S AT THE
BEACHES DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL EDGE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS WILL GIVE TEMPS A BUMP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT WELL INLAND LOCATIONS OF NE FL.

.EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... SUNDAY...A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THE
DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
BY EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE MIDWEST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING TO THE UPPER GULF COAST NEAR HOUSTON. THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE APPALACHIANS WITH
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...A 1033 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH
RIDGING AND A LOCAL NORTHEASTER SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL
IMPINGE ON THE COAST BY EVENING. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE GULF LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE
UPPER GULF COAST. THE RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EXITING NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OUT OF THE
GULF.

FRIDAY...A VERY STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTER CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT SKIES WILL BE QUICK TO
CLEAR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SOONER THAN THE
SURFACE WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY MID
MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
OUTER WATERS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW SURF. A
MODERATE RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  33  59  41 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  58  39  55  46 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  63  36  60  46 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  62  43  59  49 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  66  34  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  36  67  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/SANDRIK/



000
FXUS62 KJAX 300937
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
437 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR AND WILL QUICKLY SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE...MARKED
EARLIER BY A FEW SPRINKLES...IS NOW MOSTLY JUST VIRGA WITH NO
STATIONS REPORTING ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL HOWEVER TURN MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING AS
THE FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHWARD. A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS...THUS
POPS WILL REMAIN AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS THIS MORNING WITH NO CHANCE
FOR RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO 60 ACROSS SE GA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT. COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. A LIGHT AND BRIEF FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT A FEW NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. THE
SURFACE DOES NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SO A MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZE
IS NOT LIKELY. PATCHY TO POSSIBLY AREAS OF FROST THOUGH CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTLINE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP COASTAL
COMMUNITIES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S AT THE
BEACHES DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL EDGE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS WILL GIVE TEMPS A BUMP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT WELL INLAND LOCATIONS OF NE FL.

.EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... SUNDAY...A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THE
DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
BY EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE MIDWEST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING TO THE UPPER GULF COAST NEAR HOUSTON. THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE APPALACHIANS WITH
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...A 1033 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH
RIDGING AND A LOCAL NORTHEASTER SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL
IMPINGE ON THE COAST BY EVENING. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE GULF LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE
UPPER GULF COAST. THE RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EXITING NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OUT OF THE
GULF.

FRIDAY...A VERY STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTER CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT SKIES WILL BE QUICK TO
CLEAR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SOONER THAN THE
SURFACE WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY MID
MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
OUTER WATERS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW SURF. A
MODERATE RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  33  59  41 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  58  39  55  46 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  63  36  60  46 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  62  43  59  49 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  66  34  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  36  67  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/SANDRIK/



000
FXUS62 KJAX 300937
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
437 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR AND WILL QUICKLY SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE...MARKED
EARLIER BY A FEW SPRINKLES...IS NOW MOSTLY JUST VIRGA WITH NO
STATIONS REPORTING ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL HOWEVER TURN MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING AS
THE FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHWARD. A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS...THUS
POPS WILL REMAIN AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS THIS MORNING WITH NO CHANCE
FOR RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO 60 ACROSS SE GA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT. COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. A LIGHT AND BRIEF FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT A FEW NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. THE
SURFACE DOES NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SO A MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZE
IS NOT LIKELY. PATCHY TO POSSIBLY AREAS OF FROST THOUGH CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTLINE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP COASTAL
COMMUNITIES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S AT THE
BEACHES DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL EDGE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS WILL GIVE TEMPS A BUMP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT WELL INLAND LOCATIONS OF NE FL.

.EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... SUNDAY...A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THE
DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
BY EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE MIDWEST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING TO THE UPPER GULF COAST NEAR HOUSTON. THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE APPALACHIANS WITH
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...A 1033 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH
RIDGING AND A LOCAL NORTHEASTER SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL
IMPINGE ON THE COAST BY EVENING. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE GULF LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE
UPPER GULF COAST. THE RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EXITING NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OUT OF THE
GULF.

FRIDAY...A VERY STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTER CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT SKIES WILL BE QUICK TO
CLEAR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SOONER THAN THE
SURFACE WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY MID
MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
OUTER WATERS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW SURF. A
MODERATE RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  33  59  41 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  58  39  55  46 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  63  36  60  46 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  62  43  59  49 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  66  34  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  36  67  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/SANDRIK/



000
FXUS62 KJAX 300937
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
437 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON OUR DOOR AND WILL QUICKLY SWING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL LINE...MARKED
EARLIER BY A FEW SPRINKLES...IS NOW MOSTLY JUST VIRGA WITH NO
STATIONS REPORTING ANY PRECIP OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
MORNING. SKIES WILL HOWEVER TURN MOSTLY SUNNY BY LATE MORNING AS
THE FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHWARD. A STRAY SPRINKLE OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS...THUS
POPS WILL REMAIN AT 10 PERCENT OR LESS THIS MORNING WITH NO CHANCE
FOR RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.

BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN CLOSER
TO 60 ACROSS SE GA.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT. COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR TEMPS TO FALL INTO
THE 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. A LIGHT AND BRIEF FREEZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT A FEW NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS WELL INLAND. THE
SURFACE DOES NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE SO A MORE SIGNIFICANT FREEZE
IS NOT LIKELY. PATCHY TO POSSIBLY AREAS OF FROST THOUGH CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE COASTLINE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP COASTAL
COMMUNITIES ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S AT THE
BEACHES DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL EDGE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS WILL GIVE TEMPS A BUMP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AT WELL INLAND LOCATIONS OF NE FL.

.EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... SUNDAY...A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY HOURS OF THE
DAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
BY EVENING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO DIG INTO THE MIDWEST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT EXTENDING TO THE UPPER GULF COAST NEAR HOUSTON. THE
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST TO THE APPALACHIANS WITH
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING AND INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUESDAY...A 1033 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH
RIDGING AND A LOCAL NORTHEASTER SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. A FEW
COASTAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND WILL
IMPINGE ON THE COAST BY EVENING. THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF LOWS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS THE
RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE GULF LOW BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ALONG THE
UPPER GULF COAST. THE RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY...THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST EXITING NEAR THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING IN OUT OF THE
GULF.

FRIDAY...A VERY STRONG UPPER SHORT WAVE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WITH A STRONG 1040 MB HIGH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A
STRONG NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTER CONDITIONS LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. BUT SKIES WILL BE QUICK TO
CLEAR WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LLWS IS ALSO EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE SOONER THAN THE
SURFACE WINDS. SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY MID
MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
OUTER WATERS TODAY IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTH AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW AND LOW SURF. A
MODERATE RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  33  59  41 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  58  39  55  46 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  63  36  60  46 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  62  43  59  49 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  66  34  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  68  36  67  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHULER/SANDRIK/



000
FXUS62 KKEY 300857
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300
AM ILLUSTRATE THE NEXT MIDDLE LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER OHIO IS CARVING
OUT A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE
FLOW UPSTREAM BECOMES LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS...BUT MID AND UPPER FLOW IS CYCLONIC OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...THE AXIS OF A NEAR 1035 TO 1037 MB SURFACE RIDGING IS LOCATED
FROM MINNESOTA TO OKLAHOMA. THE LEADING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
AIRMASS IS ORIENTED FROM MONTREAL TO OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS. CLOSER
TO THE KEYS...A 1020-1023 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST
ILLUSTRATED A GENTLE NORTHEAST FLOW FROM OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT
500 FEET AGL...BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB. A 3
DEGREE C INVERSION WAS LOCATED IN THE 860 TO 835 MB LAYER. THE
OVERALL COLUMN REMAINED MODERATELY DRY WITH COLUMNAR PWAT AT 0.61
INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS OWING TO
STRATOCUMULUS...BUT KEY WEST AND MIAMI RADAR DO NOT DETECT ECHOS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. C-MAN STATIONS
ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE REGISTERING 10 METER NORTHEAST NEAR 15
KNOTS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN FLORIDA BAY AND AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING PROGRESSIVE MID
AND UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
TO LAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY...AKA
GROUNDHOG DAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS
MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY FROM EASTERN CANADA TO JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES...WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
EAST THEN INDICATED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

A SLOWLY MOVING YET SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEPENING INTO THE LOW 980 MILLIBARS. THIS
FEATURE WILL WORK IN COMBINATION/TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
1035 MB PLUS SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL REACH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TODAY AND THEN SET UP SHOP OVER THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT DURING SATURDAY...RESULTING IN THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DRY
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND
THEN THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT. BEHIND IT...WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND
SURGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE KEYS. THE MAIN STRONG
1030 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AS OUR WINDS
VEER...BUT WILL LET DOWN MARKEDLY AND VEER TO BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SO BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY ILLUSTRATE PWAT BELOW 1.00
INCHES SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...STRONG FLUX CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE AIR
AND SEA BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FAST MOVING LOW
TOPPED SHOWERS THRU THE PERIOD...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE GRIDS FOR THESE THREE PERIODS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...BEFORE THE SURGE TONIGHT...GENTLE NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED TO NORTH ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOLER
SHALLOW WATERS NORTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...WHICH WILL KEEP HI
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY AND NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW
WILL NOT ALLOW HIGHS ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT AS THE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST ON SUNDAY HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REACH NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S AND MID 60S RESPECTIVELY.

A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AS WEEK RIDGING PUSHES NEAR THE KEYS AND LITTLE MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S MONDAY
AND LOWS NEAR 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...MID LATITUDINAL DISTURBANCES
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE KEYS MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SURFACE RIDGING SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF A DECENT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET OVER NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO AND OR TEXAS BY TUESDAY...MIGRATING ACROSS THE GULF TOWARDS
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...AS AT LEAST A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED THIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
EAST OF TEXAS ON MONDAY...THEN ONLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
REACHING NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM
1.00-1.50 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HENCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN LOW CHANCES MAINTAINED IN
THE GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN ASSOCIATED
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO COOLING MID LEVELS. NUMERICAL MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER BUT PRUDENCE DICTATES A FEW MORE
CYCLES BEFORE INSERTION OF THIS THREAT FOR THESE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING...SO NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED. THEN..GIVEN STRONG MSLP GRADIENT AND AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEEMS PROBABLE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE HAWK CHANNEL...DEEPER
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS OUT 60 NM FROM THE REEF FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS. SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE COOLER AND SHALLOWER FLORIDA BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS INSIDE THE FIVE FATHOM LINE NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
KEYS. A CAUTIONARY HEADLINE IS LIKELY FOR THE DEEPER WATERS AGAIN
DURING SUNDAY...BUT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COOLER SHALLOW WATERS. THEN
WINDS WINDS SEAS WILL LET DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND NO HEADLINES OR
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 4500
FEET...SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE
TO ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL BACK TO NORTH THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1940...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 47 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JANUARY 30TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 75 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY
WEST WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  64  74  67 / -  -  20 10
MARATHON  73  64  74  67 / -  -  20 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 300857
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
357 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300
AM ILLUSTRATE THE NEXT MIDDLE LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER OHIO IS CARVING
OUT A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE
FLOW UPSTREAM BECOMES LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CONUS...BUT MID AND UPPER FLOW IS CYCLONIC OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE KEYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...THE AXIS OF A NEAR 1035 TO 1037 MB SURFACE RIDGING IS LOCATED
FROM MINNESOTA TO OKLAHOMA. THE LEADING COLD FRONT AHEAD OF THIS
AIRMASS IS ORIENTED FROM MONTREAL TO OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS. CLOSER
TO THE KEYS...A 1020-1023 MB SURFACE RIDGE IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...LAST EVENINGS 00Z SOUNDING AT KEY WEST
ILLUSTRATED A GENTLE NORTHEAST FLOW FROM OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT
500 FEET AGL...BECOMING MODERATE TO FRESH UP TO ABOUT 850 MB. A 3
DEGREE C INVERSION WAS LOCATED IN THE 860 TO 835 MB LAYER. THE
OVERALL COLUMN REMAINED MODERATELY DRY WITH COLUMNAR PWAT AT 0.61
INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS
THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS OWING TO
STRATOCUMULUS...BUT KEY WEST AND MIAMI RADAR DO NOT DETECT ECHOS.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ISLAND ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
WITH DEWPOINTS CREEPING UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. C-MAN STATIONS
ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF ARE REGISTERING 10 METER NORTHEAST NEAR 15
KNOTS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN FLORIDA BAY AND AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...DEVELOPING PROGRESSIVE MID
AND UPPER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
TO LAST TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT INCREASING WARMTH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY...AKA
GROUNDHOG DAY...AND MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS
MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
DOWN TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY FROM EASTERN CANADA TO JUST EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES...WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT FARTHER
EAST THEN INDICATED EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.

A SLOWLY MOVING YET SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY...DEEPENING INTO THE LOW 980 MILLIBARS. THIS
FEATURE WILL WORK IN COMBINATION/TANDEM WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
1035 MB PLUS SURFACE RIDGE NOW OVER THE PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL REACH
THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TODAY AND THEN SET UP SHOP OVER THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT DURING SATURDAY...RESULTING IN THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER DRY
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY...AND
THEN THROUGH THE KEYS TONIGHT. BEHIND IT...WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND
SURGE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE KEYS. THE MAIN STRONG
1030 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AS OUR WINDS
VEER...BUT WILL LET DOWN MARKEDLY AND VEER TO BETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH BY SUNDAY NIGHT. SO BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONLY ILLUSTRATE PWAT BELOW 1.00
INCHES SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...STRONG FLUX CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE AIR
AND SEA BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FAST MOVING LOW
TOPPED SHOWERS THRU THE PERIOD...SO WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN
THE GRIDS FOR THESE THREE PERIODS.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...BEFORE THE SURGE TONIGHT...GENTLE NORTH
WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED TO NORTH ACROSS THE RELATIVELY COOLER
SHALLOW WATERS NORTH OF THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN...WHICH WILL KEEP HI
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TODAY AND NORTHEAST WINDS TOMORROW
WILL NOT ALLOW HIGHS ABOVE THE LOWER TO MID 70S...BUT AS THE WINDS
BECOME MORE EAST ON SUNDAY HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REACH NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S AND MID 60S RESPECTIVELY.

A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...AS WEEK RIDGING PUSHES NEAR THE KEYS AND LITTLE MOISTURE
REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTH WINDS AND
INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S MONDAY
AND LOWS NEAR 70 SUNDAY NIGHT.

EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY...MID LATITUDINAL DISTURBANCES
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE KEYS MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SURFACE RIDGING SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BUT ZONAL FLOW WILL BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPMENT OF A DECENT MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET OVER NORTHERN OLD
MEXICO AND OR TEXAS BY TUESDAY...MIGRATING ACROSS THE GULF TOWARDS
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...AS AT LEAST A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE FEATURE ASSOCIATED THIS IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
EAST OF TEXAS ON MONDAY...THEN ONLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND
REACHING NORTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE THURSDAY. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM
1.00-1.50 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN ABOVE 1.50 INCHES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HENCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH EVEN LOW CHANCES MAINTAINED IN
THE GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GIVEN ASSOCIATED
DESTABILIZATION DUE TO COOLING MID LEVELS. NUMERICAL MODELS ALSO
SUGGEST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER BUT PRUDENCE DICTATES A FEW MORE
CYCLES BEFORE INSERTION OF THIS THREAT FOR THESE LATER PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...GENTLE NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING...SO NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED. THEN..GIVEN STRONG MSLP GRADIENT AND AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEEMS PROBABLE
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE HAWK CHANNEL...DEEPER
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS 20 TO 60 NM WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE...AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS OUT 60 NM FROM THE REEF FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS. SMALL CRAFT WILL STILL LIKELY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS THE COOLER AND SHALLOWER FLORIDA BAY AND NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS INSIDE THE FIVE FATHOM LINE NORTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
KEYS. A CAUTIONARY HEADLINE IS LIKELY FOR THE DEEPER WATERS AGAIN
DURING SUNDAY...BUT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COOLER SHALLOW WATERS. THEN
WINDS WINDS SEAS WILL LET DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT...AND NO HEADLINES OR
ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 4500
FEET...SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE
TO ABOUT 5000 FEET WILL BACK TO NORTH THIS MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1940...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 47 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JANUARY 30TH...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 75 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY
WEST WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  64  74  67 / -  -  20 10
MARATHON  73  64  74  67 / -  -  20 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BS

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300843
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A weak cold front will move through the area early this morning,
ushering in slightly cooler temperatures with afternoon highs
ranging mainly from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clouds will decrease
rapidly during the morning hours with mostly sunny conditions
expected by afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
High pressure will build across the Southern Appalachians this
evening and remain north of the region before sunrise on Saturday.
Enough wind will probably keep freezing temperatures confined to
the northern zones, closer to the center of the high pressure
area.

High pressure moves quickly east of the region on Saturday with
southerly flow starting the moistening trend late in the
afternoon. Temperatures will rebound slightly, generally in the
lower 60s across the region, except mid 60s in the Florida Big
Bend.

Saturday night through Sunday, a large storm system will be moving
eastward across the Plains, resulting in increasing cloudiness and
eventually rain chances Sunday afternoon. The models tend to be a
little slow developing areas of rain in isentropic events, and
thus have increased PoPs a little above guidance on Sunday
afternoon into the 40 to 50 percent range in our western areas.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The storm system at the tail end of the short term period will
begin to move through the region on Sunday night. With the surface
low well to the north, enough instability will likely be present
within the warm sector to support isolated thunderstorms. After
the isentropic ascent ends on Sunday evening, overall lift looks
minimal until the cold front gets closer to the region after
midnight. Rain chances have been increased into the likely
category for the frontal passage overnight.

Drier and cooler air will move in behind the storm system Monday
afternoon with high pressure settling over the area briefly on
Tuesday.

Up until the 30/00z guidance came in, it appeared that the models
were converging on a similar solution. However, while the overall
pattern remains similar between the GFS and Euro, the 30/00z Euro
slowed down quite a bit and is now 18-24 hours slower with the
progression of the next system. As a result, the forecast for
Wednesday through Friday remains more uncertain than normal.

The pattern suggests that the large upper low over Baja California
will eject eastward across Northern Mexico and lead to development
of a surface low pressure area along a stalled frontal zone in the
Gulf of Mexico. The 30/00z GFS stays fairly progressive, even
pulling the upper low well to the north ahead of a deepening
northern stream shortwave. So the heaviest period of rain is
focused on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The 30/00z Euro is much
slower with the evolution of the system, owing to less
amplification of the northern stream by mid week. Thus, while rain
chances increase in the Euro solution Wednesday night, the period
of heaviest rainfall wouldn`t occur until Thursday and then linger
into Friday.

There`s enough overlap in the solutions to increase PoPs on
Wednesday but the differences also suggest that rain chances need
to be maintained in the forecast through at least Thursday
afternoon until the timing differences between the models can be
resolved.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] A few areas of MVFR ceilings are possible
early this morning as a weak cold front moves through the area,
but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with gusty NW winds from
mid-morning until around sunset.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will increase to advisory level over the western marine area
immediately behind the cold front and then decrease to cautionary
levels through Saturday morning when high pressure will build near
the waters. Onshore flow will increase on Sunday ahead of the next
storm system with possible advisory level conditions Sunday
afternoon. A cold front will move through the marine area on
Monday, shifting winds to offshore.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this
morning with all of the river points below flood stage.

The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These
amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels
but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of
the forecast points.

With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early
next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the
stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday. While
timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain, the
general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event that
will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next week
or weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  35  64  44  67 /   0   0   0   0  30
Panama City   59  39  60  49  66 /   0   0   0  10  40
Dothan        57  34  59  44  63 /   0   0   0  10  60
Albany        58  32  60  42  64 /   0   0   0   0  30
Valdosta      60  34  64  44  68 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    66  35  67  44  70 /  10   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  63  40  60  49  66 /  10   0   0   0  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300843
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A weak cold front will move through the area early this morning,
ushering in slightly cooler temperatures with afternoon highs
ranging mainly from the upper 50s to lower 60s. Clouds will decrease
rapidly during the morning hours with mostly sunny conditions
expected by afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
High pressure will build across the Southern Appalachians this
evening and remain north of the region before sunrise on Saturday.
Enough wind will probably keep freezing temperatures confined to
the northern zones, closer to the center of the high pressure
area.

High pressure moves quickly east of the region on Saturday with
southerly flow starting the moistening trend late in the
afternoon. Temperatures will rebound slightly, generally in the
lower 60s across the region, except mid 60s in the Florida Big
Bend.

Saturday night through Sunday, a large storm system will be moving
eastward across the Plains, resulting in increasing cloudiness and
eventually rain chances Sunday afternoon. The models tend to be a
little slow developing areas of rain in isentropic events, and
thus have increased PoPs a little above guidance on Sunday
afternoon into the 40 to 50 percent range in our western areas.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The storm system at the tail end of the short term period will
begin to move through the region on Sunday night. With the surface
low well to the north, enough instability will likely be present
within the warm sector to support isolated thunderstorms. After
the isentropic ascent ends on Sunday evening, overall lift looks
minimal until the cold front gets closer to the region after
midnight. Rain chances have been increased into the likely
category for the frontal passage overnight.

Drier and cooler air will move in behind the storm system Monday
afternoon with high pressure settling over the area briefly on
Tuesday.

Up until the 30/00z guidance came in, it appeared that the models
were converging on a similar solution. However, while the overall
pattern remains similar between the GFS and Euro, the 30/00z Euro
slowed down quite a bit and is now 18-24 hours slower with the
progression of the next system. As a result, the forecast for
Wednesday through Friday remains more uncertain than normal.

The pattern suggests that the large upper low over Baja California
will eject eastward across Northern Mexico and lead to development
of a surface low pressure area along a stalled frontal zone in the
Gulf of Mexico. The 30/00z GFS stays fairly progressive, even
pulling the upper low well to the north ahead of a deepening
northern stream shortwave. So the heaviest period of rain is
focused on Wednesday afternoon/evening. The 30/00z Euro is much
slower with the evolution of the system, owing to less
amplification of the northern stream by mid week. Thus, while rain
chances increase in the Euro solution Wednesday night, the period
of heaviest rainfall wouldn`t occur until Thursday and then linger
into Friday.

There`s enough overlap in the solutions to increase PoPs on
Wednesday but the differences also suggest that rain chances need
to be maintained in the forecast through at least Thursday
afternoon until the timing differences between the models can be
resolved.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday] A few areas of MVFR ceilings are possible
early this morning as a weak cold front moves through the area,
but otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with gusty NW winds from
mid-morning until around sunset.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will increase to advisory level over the western marine area
immediately behind the cold front and then decrease to cautionary
levels through Saturday morning when high pressure will build near
the waters. Onshore flow will increase on Sunday ahead of the next
storm system with possible advisory level conditions Sunday
afternoon. A cold front will move through the marine area on
Monday, shifting winds to offshore.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
River flooding from last week`s heavy rainfall is ending this
morning with all of the river points below flood stage.

The next storm system arriving Sunday into Monday looks to bring
widespread rainfall totals of 0.75 to 1.5 inches of rain. These
amounts will likely provide for a small rise in river levels
but is unlikely to result in a return to flood stages at any of
the forecast points.

With streamflows projected to be above to well above normal early
next week, the scenario is set well for river flooding with the
stronger storm system due to approach the area on Wednesday. While
timing differences make overall rainfall amounts uncertain, the
general pattern suggests a widespread moderate rainfall event that
will likely result in at least minor river flooding late next week
or weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  35  64  44  67 /   0   0   0   0  30
Panama City   59  39  60  49  66 /   0   0   0  10  40
Dothan        57  34  59  44  63 /   0   0   0  10  60
Albany        58  32  60  42  64 /   0   0   0   0  30
Valdosta      60  34  64  44  68 /   0   0   0   0  20
Cross City    66  35  67  44  70 /  10   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  63  40  60  49  66 /  10   0   0   0  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 300836
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE ATLC WILL COMPLETE ITS COLLAPSE...YIELDING
TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA BY ABOUT NOON...SLUMPING SOUTH TO AROUND LAKE O BY
SUNSET. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/FORCED ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE
RAIN CHCS OVER LAND ASCD WITH FROPA. JUST A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM...WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW-MID CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. MAXES TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACH THE
U60S-70F OVER LAKE/VOLUSIA AND 70-75F TO THE SOUTH.

SAT-SUN...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY ALSO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT APPROACH THE COAST
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE SHALLOW
AND WITH MOS POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 FARTHER SOUTH AND OVER THE
INTERIOR. TEMPS THEN WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S ON SUN. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SUN NIGHT.

MON-TUE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN U.S. MON
PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE AFT. MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND AREA IN ASCENDING
REGION OF 250MB JET JUST NORTH OF FL SHOULD AID IN ISO/SCT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN AREAS AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST.

DRIER/COOLER AIR THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. HIGHS IN THE 70S MON
WILL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH
ON TUE.

WED-THU...MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT LIFTS E/NE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND NORTH OF CENTRAL FL. HOWEVER PLENTY
OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THEREFORE LEAD TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
ACTUALLY SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A MORE FASTER
MOVEMENT NOW INDICATED BY THE 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE INDICATED BY BOTH
MODELS AS S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (30-50%) IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CIGS NEAR BKN040 ASCD WITH FROPA FOR ABOUT 3-6HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW HAS PICKED UP TO AROUND 10-15KT EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NRLY AND INCREASE FURTHER TO ABOUT
20KT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SWD THRU THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20KT THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THEY VEER TO N-NE. 00Z NWPS MODEL RUN LOOKS MORE
REALISTIC FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH
SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM. WILL INTRODUCE AN SCA FOR ALL 20-60NM LEGS
PLUS THE 0-20NM LES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. DECIDED TO STAGGER THE
START TIMES NORTH-SOUTH BY 3-6HR...GIVEN THE SWD PROGRESSION OF NRLY
POST-FRONTAL WIND SURGE.

SAT-SUN...ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS EARLY SAT WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE VEER TO THE EAST. HOWEVER
SEAS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN UP TO 6 FEET WHICH WILL CONTINUE POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.

MON-TUE...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW UP TO 15-20 KTS INTO MON
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFT WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N/NW AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO MON NIGHT. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  42  64  51 /  10   0   0  10
MCO  72  45  69  52 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  70  47  68  56 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  73  48  69  57 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  71  43  68  50 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  70  44  68  52 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  71  46  69  53 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  72  49  69  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD  COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KMLB 300836
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAKENING HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX
ACROSS SOUTH FL AND THE ATLC WILL COMPLETE ITS COLLAPSE...YIELDING
TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE E-W ORIENTED FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE NORTHERN CWA BY ABOUT NOON...SLUMPING SOUTH TO AROUND LAKE O BY
SUNSET. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/FORCED ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE
RAIN CHCS OVER LAND ASCD WITH FROPA. JUST A SMALL THREAT FOR A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE GULF STREAM...WITH SOME INCREASE IN LOW-MID CLOUDS
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. MAXES TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACH THE
U60S-70F OVER LAKE/VOLUSIA AND 70-75F TO THE SOUTH.

SAT-SUN...LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS ONSHORE BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THE DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION AND MAY ALSO LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT APPROACH THE COAST
LATER IN THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS QUITE SHALLOW
AND WITH MOS POPS AT OR BELOW 10 PERCENT WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

HIGHS 3-5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAT RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ALONG
VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST TO UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 FARTHER SOUTH AND OVER THE
INTERIOR. TEMPS THEN WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S ON SUN. OVERNIGHT
TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 50S MOST AREAS SAT
NIGHT AND UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SUN NIGHT.

MON-TUE...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH EASTERN U.S. MON
PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE AFT. MAIN ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND AREA IN ASCENDING
REGION OF 250MB JET JUST NORTH OF FL SHOULD AID IN ISO/SCT SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 30
PERCENT OVER CENTRAL/NRN AREAS AND 20 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST.

DRIER/COOLER AIR THAT BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL AGAIN BE SHORT
LIVED AS WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO ONSHORE TUE. HIGHS IN THE 70S MON
WILL COOL INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S FROM ORLANDO NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH
ON TUE.

WED-THU...MODELS ARE TRYING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAT LIFTS E/NE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND NORTH OF CENTRAL FL. HOWEVER PLENTY
OF RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES AND TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND THEREFORE LEAD TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS FAR OUT. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS
ACTUALLY SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A MORE FASTER
MOVEMENT NOW INDICATED BY THE 00Z GFS. REGARDLESS OF SOLUTION
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE INDICATED BY BOTH
MODELS AS S/SE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW INCREASE MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS (30-50%) IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. CIGS NEAR BKN040 ASCD WITH FROPA FOR ABOUT 3-6HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW HAS PICKED UP TO AROUND 10-15KT EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NRLY AND INCREASE FURTHER TO ABOUT
20KT AS THE FRONT SWEEPS SWD THRU THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 20KT THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE SATURDAY AS THEY VEER TO N-NE. 00Z NWPS MODEL RUN LOOKS MORE
REALISTIC FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH
SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM. WILL INTRODUCE AN SCA FOR ALL 20-60NM LEGS
PLUS THE 0-20NM LES SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. DECIDED TO STAGGER THE
START TIMES NORTH-SOUTH BY 3-6HR...GIVEN THE SWD PROGRESSION OF NRLY
POST-FRONTAL WIND SURGE.

SAT-SUN...ELEVATED NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 15-20 KTS EARLY SAT WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE VEER TO THE EAST. HOWEVER
SEAS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN UP TO 6 FEET WHICH WILL CONTINUE POOR
BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST WITH SEAS 3-5 FT.

MON-TUE...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE S/SW UP TO 15-20 KTS INTO MON
MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION IN THE
AFT WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS BECOME N/NW AND REMAIN
ELEVATED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO MON NIGHT. WINDS THEN QUICKLY VEER
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS ON TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  42  64  51 /  10   0   0  10
MCO  72  45  69  52 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  70  47  68  56 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  73  48  69  57 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  71  43  68  50 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  70  44  68  52 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  71  46  69  53 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  72  49  69  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD  COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM SATURDAY
     FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH






000
FXUS62 KTBW 300826
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
326 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLOUD COVER WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY
AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO ONLY
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND 40S AND
LOW 50S FROM THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR SOUTH. ON SATURDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS COMING
AROUND TO EAST-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AS A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
WITH A NEAR ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES LEAVING THE CUTOFF LOW BEHIND OVER
MEXICO. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA MONDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THE CUTOFF LOW GRADUALLY OPENING UP AND LIFTING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS NOW GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE FRONT THAT
MOVED INTO THE AREA MONDAY WILL WEAKEN AND STALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AS
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. HELPING TO PUSH THE REMNANT ENERGY OF THE
CUTOFF LOW EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NO MATTER WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

NO EXTREME TEMPERATURES...EITHER REAL WARM OR REAL COLD...ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NIGHT AND DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTS AND NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY AND NIGHTS
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICKUP BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
TURN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL GULF ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH WIND SPEEDS BORDERING ON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY WITH
WINDS SPEEDS MODERATING...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PULLING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CRITICAL LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  46  70  54 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  74  51  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  46  69  51 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  69  47  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  69  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  51  67  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KTBW 300826
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
326 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - SATURDAY)...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AS A DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CLOUD COVER WILL
BRIEFLY INCREASE ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS. WINDS WILL PICK UP SLIGHTLY
AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL
QUICKLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTH
OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO ONLY
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NATURE COAST...AND 40S AND
LOW 50S FROM THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR SOUTH. ON SATURDAY...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH WINDS COMING
AROUND TO EAST-NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR TO
JUST BELOW NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
MODELS ARE NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AS A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
WITH A NEAR ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST OUT
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS SHIFT FROM EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WITH SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES LEAVING THE CUTOFF LOW BEHIND OVER
MEXICO. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA MONDAY LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

DURING MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN WITH THE CUTOFF LOW GRADUALLY OPENING UP AND LIFTING
INTO SOUTH TEXAS. MODELS NOW GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE FRONT THAT
MOVED INTO THE AREA MONDAY WILL WEAKEN AND STALL ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HERE AND THERE AS
THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. HELPING TO PUSH THE REMNANT ENERGY OF THE
CUTOFF LOW EASTWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT NO MATTER WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE A
CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

NO EXTREME TEMPERATURES...EITHER REAL WARM OR REAL COLD...ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM NEAR TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NIGHT AND DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONTS AND NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE DAY AND NIGHTS
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL PICKUP BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
TURN TO THE NORTH TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL DETERIORATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EXPAND ACROSS
ALL GULF ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH WIND SPEEDS BORDERING ON SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SATURDAY WITH
WINDS SPEEDS MODERATING...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY HEADLINES
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...PULLING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...AND BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND BUILDING
WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILL INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE
WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CRITICAL LEVELS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  70  46  70  54 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  74  51  74  54 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  71  46  69  51 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  69  47  70  52 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  69  38  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  51  67  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300737
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
237 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK...

...THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND FLOW SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY TONIGHT REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE THE WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS WHILE KEEPING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO HAVE
REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS WEEKEND
WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS DRY.

THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL THEN QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY A DRY FRONT AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE WIND
FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BY END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER WORKING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY
TONIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MOSTLY LOW TODAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL THEN BE ON AN INCREASE OVER REST
OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ALONG WITH THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
REMAINING IN THE MID 20S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO THE 40S TO 50S THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  57  72  61 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  59  73  63 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  60  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           73  53  75  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300737
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
237 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK...

...THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND FLOW SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY TONIGHT REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE THE WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS WHILE KEEPING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO HAVE
REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS WEEKEND
WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS DRY.

THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL THEN QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY A DRY FRONT AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE WIND
FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BY END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER WORKING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY
TONIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MOSTLY LOW TODAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL THEN BE ON AN INCREASE OVER REST
OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ALONG WITH THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
REMAINING IN THE MID 20S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO THE 40S TO 50S THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  57  72  61 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  59  73  63 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  60  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           73  53  75  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300737
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
237 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK...

...THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND FLOW SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY TONIGHT REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE THE WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS WHILE KEEPING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO HAVE
REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS WEEKEND
WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS DRY.

THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL THEN QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY A DRY FRONT AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE WIND
FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BY END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER WORKING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY
TONIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MOSTLY LOW TODAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL THEN BE ON AN INCREASE OVER REST
OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ALONG WITH THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
REMAINING IN THE MID 20S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO THE 40S TO 50S THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  57  72  61 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  59  73  63 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  60  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           73  53  75  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300737
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
237 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

...DRY WEATHER CONTINUES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK...

...THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST TODAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A WESTERLY WIND FLOW SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY TONIGHT REINFORCING THE DRY AIR OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
WEEKEND...AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE THE WINDS TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA AND INCREASE TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS WHILE KEEPING THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. SO HAVE
REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS WEEKEND
WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAINS DRY.

THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL THEN QUICKLY
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MOVES EAST INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL AGAIN BE MOSTLY A DRY FRONT AND THERE
SHOULD BE ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...THE WIND
FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE
WINDS WILL THEN BECOME NORTHERLY BY END OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER WORKING TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE GOING NORTHERLY
TONIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM AROUND 10 MPH
TODAY TO BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY. THIS WILL KEEP THE GULF SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TODAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE ATLANTIC SEAS COULD BUILD TO 7 FEET LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT. THE ATLANTIC SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL TO 4 TO 6 FEET ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH REST
OF THIS WEEKEND AS THE WINDS SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.

THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE MOSTLY LOW TODAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES WHERE A MODERATE RISK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE.
THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL THEN BE ON AN INCREASE OVER REST
OF THE EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY TODAY SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH ALONG WITH THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT (ERC)
REMAINING IN THE MID 20S. THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL THEN INCREASE
INTO THE 40S TO 50S THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  57  72  61 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  59  73  63 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  60  74  62 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           73  53  75  54 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300602
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
102 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND OFFSHORE THROUGH DAYBREAK, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE WNW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NNE WINDS WILL
RETURN LATER TONIGHT OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. /AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO...AND EXPECT THIS TREND OVERNIGHT. NO CHANCES TO ONGOING
FORECAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. /SK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT...WITH A LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT
MORE TO THE NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH.  COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT WASHES
OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LONG TERM...
AS THE DIMINISHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO
DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THEY COULD MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY AND THEN MOVES NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH OF THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, HOWEVER, THERE STILL COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN EASTERLY BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  59  71  62 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  60  72  64 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            75  60  73  64 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           71  54  74  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...55/CWC



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300602
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
102 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND OFFSHORE THROUGH DAYBREAK, THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE WNW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. NNE WINDS WILL
RETURN LATER TONIGHT OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. /AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO...AND EXPECT THIS TREND OVERNIGHT. NO CHANCES TO ONGOING
FORECAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. /SK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT...WITH A LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT
MORE TO THE NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH.  COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT WASHES
OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LONG TERM...
AS THE DIMINISHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO
DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THEY COULD MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY AND THEN MOVES NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH OF THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, HOWEVER, THERE STILL COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN EASTERLY BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  59  71  62 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  60  72  64 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            75  60  73  64 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           71  54  74  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...55/CWC




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300342
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1042 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
LATE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH A THIN BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
APPROACHING THE ALTAMAHA/OCMULGEE RIVERS. HIGH PRESSURE (1024
MILLIBARS) IS SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALOFT...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY...PUSHING A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. MID AND HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDINESS IS OVERSPREADING OUR
REGION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS MAY FOSTER AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT...AND THE HIGH RES HRRR
MODEL INDICATES THAT AN AREA OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS WILL
ADVECT EASTWARD OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
DURING THE PREDAWN AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE CHANCES OF
MEASURABLE RAIN APPEAR MINIMAL FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH
10-20% CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL SLOWLY RISE ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES...WITH LOWS IN NORTHEAST/NORTH CENTRAL FL LIKELY
OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASE.

STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS...AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS ON FRIDAY ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO DESPITE PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN
IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF SOUTHEAST GA...WITH 60-65 EXPECTED IN
NORTHEAST FL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AT GNV FROM AROUND 10Z-12Z. CIGS
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS FROM 1500-2500 FEET
EXPECTED FROM AROUND 11Z-16Z ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 16Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS JUST OFF
THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS AFTER 06Z...BECOMING
WESTERLY TOWARDS 10Z AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 15Z. WEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AFTER
12Z...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS EXPECTED AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS THROUGH AROUND 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS EVENING WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
AND WILL STRENGTHEN TO NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN
IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS
NEAR SHORE AFTER SUNRISE WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY
EVENING...CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO A NORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS OF CAUTION TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SEAS OFFSHORE
BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET. ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SETTLES OVER OUR REGION.
SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE OFFSHORE. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION...WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES EXPECTED.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO OFFSHORE
WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  46  57  33  59 /  10  10   0   0
SSI  49  56  39  55 /  10  10   0   0
JAX  45  62  36  61 /  10  10   0   0
SGJ  46  62  43  60 /  10  10   0   0
GNV  43  65  34  66 /  10  10   0   0
OCF  44  67  36  68 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

NELSON/PETERSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KKEY 300229
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
929 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATE EVENING IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A POCKET OF SHALLOW CU
EXTENDING TO ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE STRAITS. ANALYSIS SHOWS
LIGHTER WINDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS...AND MORE MODERATE NORTHEAST BREEZES ALONG THE ISLANDS
AND ATLANTIC WATERS. KBYX RADAR IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES.
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

THE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
HAVE VEERED AND ARE LIGHTER THROUGH 10000 FEET THAN 12 HOURS AGO.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO
FLATTEN E/W AND SETTLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE HOMOGENEOUS FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AND DROPPING OFF A FEW KNOTS. WILL BE
UPDATING THE ZONES...MAINLY FOR THE CLOUD COVERAGE CURRENTLY
INDICATED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
WINDS ALONG AND TO THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE LATE
EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING WILL LIKELY SHOW A SMALL DOWNWARD TRANSITION
TO THE WIND SPEEDS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN A COUPLE OF THE
MARINE GROUPINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPORARY VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MARATHON AND KEY WEST LATE
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS AT OR ABOVE 10 KNOTS
EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...TURNING TO THE NORTH AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......L. KASPER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300150
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIP SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS FROM 45-50 DEGREES. WILL
CONTINUE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE WHICH MAY BE MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF LOCALIZED SMOKE NEAR ANY SMOLDERING PRESCRIBED BURNS/FIRES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ESP
AT FOG PRONE SITES SUCH AS FPR AND LEE. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH AND AFTER FROPA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH A NORTHEAST 3 TO 5 FOOT
LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BUILDING SEAS LATE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  69  43  64 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  50  72  47  70 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  48  71  49  68 /   0  10  10   0
VRB  48  73  51  69 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  50  71  44  69 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  50  72  45  68 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  50  71  48  69 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  47  73  50  70 /   0   0  10  10


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/SHARP








000
FXUS62 KMLB 300150
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS ACROSS CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIP SOUTH
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE NW LATE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH LOWS FROM 45-50 DEGREES. WILL
CONTINUE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE WHICH MAY BE MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS SRN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE SFC RIDGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
CHANCE OF LOCALIZED SMOKE NEAR ANY SMOLDERING PRESCRIBED BURNS/FIRES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND COULD PRODUCE TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ESP
AT FOG PRONE SITES SUCH AS FPR AND LEE. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS WITH AND AFTER FROPA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR OVERNIGHT FORECAST WITH A NORTHEAST 3 TO 5 FOOT
LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE WATERS. HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE NEXT
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BUILDING SEAS LATE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  69  43  64 /   0  10   0   0
MCO  50  72  47  70 /   0  10   0   0
MLB  48  71  49  68 /   0  10  10   0
VRB  48  73  51  69 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  50  71  44  69 /   0  10   0   0
SFB  50  72  45  68 /   0  10   0   0
ORL  50  71  48  69 /   0  10   0   0
FPR  47  73  50  70 /   0   0  10  10


&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/SHARP







000
FXUS62 KTAE 300103
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
803 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front from
Huntsville, AL through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a positive tilted 500 mb trough associated with this front.
The base of the trough will barely graze our forecast area, which
usually means lackluster Q-G forcing. Thus the combination of
marginal forcing and deep layer moisture will keep the overnight
PoP in the 20-30% range, with QPF values of 0.05 in or less. With
the expected increase in clouds and onshore winds overnight, lows
will be considerably warmer than the past few nights- in the mid
40s (as opposed to near freezing).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions this evening will give way
to periods of MVFR cigs at all terminals, mainly between 06 UTC
and 14 UTC. There could even be some brief periods of IFR cigs,
though the likelihood of this was not high enough to include in the
00z TAF package. Scattered light showers and/or areas of drizzle
may reduce Vis to MVFR levels overnight. Winds will shift to the
NW at 10 KT late tonight and early Friday as a cold front moves
through. Clearing skies are expected Friday morning and early
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [443 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard
on Friday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will pass through the
region by late Friday morning. There will be only a slight chance of
rain Friday morning for the Big Bend Region and offshore. By Friday
afternoon, skies will clear out and northerly winds will bring cool,
dry air to the region once again. Highs will be in the lower 60s for
most locations on Friday. Clear skies and northerly flow will make
for a chilly night Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s
expected. Saturday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer as winds
become more easterly as high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs
will be in the low to mid 60s at most locations. Clouds will begin
to move in late Saturday as a large trough extending from the Great
Plains through Baja California provides large-scale lift and
moisture over the Mississippi River Valley. Lows Saturday night will
be in the lower 40s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

On Sunday, an upper level trough is moving into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and a cutoff low remains over Baja
California/Northern Mexico. At this time, a low will develop over
the Lower Mississippi Valley at the sfc. Large batches of rain will
be likely well ahead of the cold front with abundant Gulf moisture
present. Therefore, rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. By
Monday morning, rain will be moving out and high pressure will be
moving in bringing cooler, drier air. By Tuesday night, a sfc low
will form over the Gulf near Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, clouds
will begin to move in. This low will track to the northeast bringing
high rain chances once again by Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, high
pressure will once again build into the region bringing cooler,
drier air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, changing almost daily
due to the active weather pattern. Lows will range from the low 30s
to the mid 50s.


.Marine...

Winds will increase and become northerly late tonight as a cold
front passes. Advisory conditions are likely in the morning hours
Friday in the western half of the waters. An active weather pattern
will bring moderate winds off and on throughout the week and
advisory conditions possible once again Monday morning.


.Fire Weather...

A cold front will usher in some slightly cooler, drier air to our
region Friday and Saturday. Although RH values may approach locally
critical levels on Saturday afternoon, we currently do not expect
Red Flag conditions as other values (i.e. ERC, wind, RH duration,
etc.) will not be favorable.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   47  63  34  64  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   50  61  38  60  48 /  30   0   0   0  10
Dothan        43  58  32  59  43 /  20   0   0   0  10
Albany        43  60  30  59  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      45  62  33  64  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
Cross City    46  68  34  67  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  53  64  39  61  49 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300103
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
803 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front from
Huntsville, AL through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a positive tilted 500 mb trough associated with this front.
The base of the trough will barely graze our forecast area, which
usually means lackluster Q-G forcing. Thus the combination of
marginal forcing and deep layer moisture will keep the overnight
PoP in the 20-30% range, with QPF values of 0.05 in or less. With
the expected increase in clouds and onshore winds overnight, lows
will be considerably warmer than the past few nights- in the mid
40s (as opposed to near freezing).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions this evening will give way
to periods of MVFR cigs at all terminals, mainly between 06 UTC
and 14 UTC. There could even be some brief periods of IFR cigs,
though the likelihood of this was not high enough to include in the
00z TAF package. Scattered light showers and/or areas of drizzle
may reduce Vis to MVFR levels overnight. Winds will shift to the
NW at 10 KT late tonight and early Friday as a cold front moves
through. Clearing skies are expected Friday morning and early
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [443 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard
on Friday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will pass through the
region by late Friday morning. There will be only a slight chance of
rain Friday morning for the Big Bend Region and offshore. By Friday
afternoon, skies will clear out and northerly winds will bring cool,
dry air to the region once again. Highs will be in the lower 60s for
most locations on Friday. Clear skies and northerly flow will make
for a chilly night Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s
expected. Saturday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer as winds
become more easterly as high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs
will be in the low to mid 60s at most locations. Clouds will begin
to move in late Saturday as a large trough extending from the Great
Plains through Baja California provides large-scale lift and
moisture over the Mississippi River Valley. Lows Saturday night will
be in the lower 40s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

On Sunday, an upper level trough is moving into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and a cutoff low remains over Baja
California/Northern Mexico. At this time, a low will develop over
the Lower Mississippi Valley at the sfc. Large batches of rain will
be likely well ahead of the cold front with abundant Gulf moisture
present. Therefore, rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. By
Monday morning, rain will be moving out and high pressure will be
moving in bringing cooler, drier air. By Tuesday night, a sfc low
will form over the Gulf near Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, clouds
will begin to move in. This low will track to the northeast bringing
high rain chances once again by Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, high
pressure will once again build into the region bringing cooler,
drier air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, changing almost daily
due to the active weather pattern. Lows will range from the low 30s
to the mid 50s.


.Marine...

Winds will increase and become northerly late tonight as a cold
front passes. Advisory conditions are likely in the morning hours
Friday in the western half of the waters. An active weather pattern
will bring moderate winds off and on throughout the week and
advisory conditions possible once again Monday morning.


.Fire Weather...

A cold front will usher in some slightly cooler, drier air to our
region Friday and Saturday. Although RH values may approach locally
critical levels on Saturday afternoon, we currently do not expect
Red Flag conditions as other values (i.e. ERC, wind, RH duration,
etc.) will not be favorable.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   47  63  34  64  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   50  61  38  60  48 /  30   0   0   0  10
Dothan        43  58  32  59  43 /  20   0   0   0  10
Albany        43  60  30  59  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      45  62  33  64  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
Cross City    46  68  34  67  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  53  64  39  61  49 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300103
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
803 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front from
Huntsville, AL through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a positive tilted 500 mb trough associated with this front.
The base of the trough will barely graze our forecast area, which
usually means lackluster Q-G forcing. Thus the combination of
marginal forcing and deep layer moisture will keep the overnight
PoP in the 20-30% range, with QPF values of 0.05 in or less. With
the expected increase in clouds and onshore winds overnight, lows
will be considerably warmer than the past few nights- in the mid
40s (as opposed to near freezing).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions this evening will give way
to periods of MVFR cigs at all terminals, mainly between 06 UTC
and 14 UTC. There could even be some brief periods of IFR cigs,
though the likelihood of this was not high enough to include in the
00z TAF package. Scattered light showers and/or areas of drizzle
may reduce Vis to MVFR levels overnight. Winds will shift to the
NW at 10 KT late tonight and early Friday as a cold front moves
through. Clearing skies are expected Friday morning and early
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [443 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard
on Friday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will pass through the
region by late Friday morning. There will be only a slight chance of
rain Friday morning for the Big Bend Region and offshore. By Friday
afternoon, skies will clear out and northerly winds will bring cool,
dry air to the region once again. Highs will be in the lower 60s for
most locations on Friday. Clear skies and northerly flow will make
for a chilly night Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s
expected. Saturday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer as winds
become more easterly as high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs
will be in the low to mid 60s at most locations. Clouds will begin
to move in late Saturday as a large trough extending from the Great
Plains through Baja California provides large-scale lift and
moisture over the Mississippi River Valley. Lows Saturday night will
be in the lower 40s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

On Sunday, an upper level trough is moving into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and a cutoff low remains over Baja
California/Northern Mexico. At this time, a low will develop over
the Lower Mississippi Valley at the sfc. Large batches of rain will
be likely well ahead of the cold front with abundant Gulf moisture
present. Therefore, rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. By
Monday morning, rain will be moving out and high pressure will be
moving in bringing cooler, drier air. By Tuesday night, a sfc low
will form over the Gulf near Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, clouds
will begin to move in. This low will track to the northeast bringing
high rain chances once again by Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, high
pressure will once again build into the region bringing cooler,
drier air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, changing almost daily
due to the active weather pattern. Lows will range from the low 30s
to the mid 50s.


.Marine...

Winds will increase and become northerly late tonight as a cold
front passes. Advisory conditions are likely in the morning hours
Friday in the western half of the waters. An active weather pattern
will bring moderate winds off and on throughout the week and
advisory conditions possible once again Monday morning.


.Fire Weather...

A cold front will usher in some slightly cooler, drier air to our
region Friday and Saturday. Although RH values may approach locally
critical levels on Saturday afternoon, we currently do not expect
Red Flag conditions as other values (i.e. ERC, wind, RH duration,
etc.) will not be favorable.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   47  63  34  64  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   50  61  38  60  48 /  30   0   0   0  10
Dothan        43  58  32  59  43 /  20   0   0   0  10
Albany        43  60  30  59  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      45  62  33  64  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
Cross City    46  68  34  67  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  53  64  39  61  49 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 300103
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
803 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 7 pm regional surface analysis showed a cold front from
Huntsville, AL through east TX. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a positive tilted 500 mb trough associated with this front.
The base of the trough will barely graze our forecast area, which
usually means lackluster Q-G forcing. Thus the combination of
marginal forcing and deep layer moisture will keep the overnight
PoP in the 20-30% range, with QPF values of 0.05 in or less. With
the expected increase in clouds and onshore winds overnight, lows
will be considerably warmer than the past few nights- in the mid
40s (as opposed to near freezing).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions this evening will give way
to periods of MVFR cigs at all terminals, mainly between 06 UTC
and 14 UTC. There could even be some brief periods of IFR cigs,
though the likelihood of this was not high enough to include in the
00z TAF package. Scattered light showers and/or areas of drizzle
may reduce Vis to MVFR levels overnight. Winds will shift to the
NW at 10 KT late tonight and early Friday as a cold front moves
through. Clearing skies are expected Friday morning and early
afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [443 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard
on Friday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will pass through the
region by late Friday morning. There will be only a slight chance of
rain Friday morning for the Big Bend Region and offshore. By Friday
afternoon, skies will clear out and northerly winds will bring cool,
dry air to the region once again. Highs will be in the lower 60s for
most locations on Friday. Clear skies and northerly flow will make
for a chilly night Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s
expected. Saturday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer as winds
become more easterly as high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs
will be in the low to mid 60s at most locations. Clouds will begin
to move in late Saturday as a large trough extending from the Great
Plains through Baja California provides large-scale lift and
moisture over the Mississippi River Valley. Lows Saturday night will
be in the lower 40s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

On Sunday, an upper level trough is moving into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and a cutoff low remains over Baja
California/Northern Mexico. At this time, a low will develop over
the Lower Mississippi Valley at the sfc. Large batches of rain will
be likely well ahead of the cold front with abundant Gulf moisture
present. Therefore, rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. By
Monday morning, rain will be moving out and high pressure will be
moving in bringing cooler, drier air. By Tuesday night, a sfc low
will form over the Gulf near Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, clouds
will begin to move in. This low will track to the northeast bringing
high rain chances once again by Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, high
pressure will once again build into the region bringing cooler,
drier air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, changing almost daily
due to the active weather pattern. Lows will range from the low 30s
to the mid 50s.


.Marine...

Winds will increase and become northerly late tonight as a cold
front passes. Advisory conditions are likely in the morning hours
Friday in the western half of the waters. An active weather pattern
will bring moderate winds off and on throughout the week and
advisory conditions possible once again Monday morning.


.Fire Weather...

A cold front will usher in some slightly cooler, drier air to our
region Friday and Saturday. Although RH values may approach locally
critical levels on Saturday afternoon, we currently do not expect
Red Flag conditions as other values (i.e. ERC, wind, RH duration,
etc.) will not be favorable.


.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   47  63  34  64  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   50  61  38  60  48 /  30   0   0   0  10
Dothan        43  58  32  59  43 /  20   0   0   0  10
Albany        43  60  30  59  41 /  20   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      45  62  33  64  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
Cross City    46  68  34  67  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  53  64  39  61  49 /  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KMFL 300021
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO...AND EXPECT THIS TREND OVERNIGHT. NO CHANCES TO ONGOING
FORECAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT...WITH A LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT
MORE TO THE NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH.  COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT WASHES
OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LONG TERM...
AS THE DIMINISHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO
DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THEY COULD MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY AND THEN MOVES NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH OF THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, HOWEVER, THERE STILL COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN EASTERLY BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  74  59  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  75  60  72 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            59  75  60  73 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           54  71  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....55/CWC




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300021
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
721 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING STILL SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN 24
HOURS AGO...AND EXPECT THIS TREND OVERNIGHT. NO CHANCES TO ONGOING
FORECAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT...WITH A LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT
MORE TO THE NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH.  COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT WASHES
OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LONG TERM...
AS THE DIMINISHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO
DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THEY COULD MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY AND THEN MOVES NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH OF THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, HOWEVER, THERE STILL COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN EASTERLY BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  74  59  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  75  60  72 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            59  75  60  73 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           54  71  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....55/CWC



000
FXUS62 KTBW 300017
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
715 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFYING INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. MAIN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LEADING THIS AMPLIFICATION IS CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE TN
VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL MAINLY PASS BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS WITH NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT CHANGES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DIGGING ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON ITS
WAY EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED TRAILING
BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/ TN VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY
REACHING DOWN TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING TOWARD LEVY COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...THE TAMPA AREA FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND POINTS SOUTH
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS/QG FORCING
PASSING TO OUR NORTH...AND NOT MUCH COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PROB LOOKING AT JUST A BAND OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO MARK THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A QUIET...COOL...AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
TO BE EXPECTED FOR ALL. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW-SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S
NORTH...AND LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS TOWARD DAWN FOR
KLAL/KPGD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT MENTION IN CURRENT TAFS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF VFR
LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP SOMEWHAT BETWEEN 10-14 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
APPROACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS POTENTIAL APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE HIGH POSITION TO THE NORTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH WINDS
AND SEAS RELAXING DURING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  53  69  46  70 /   0  10   0   0
FMY  52  73  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  50  71  46  70 /   0  10   0   0
SRQ  51  70  47  71 /   0  10   0   0
BKV  42  70  39  69 /   0  10   0   0
SPG  56  69  51  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 300017
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
715 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AMPLIFYING INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. MAIN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LEADING THIS AMPLIFICATION IS CURRENTLY DROPPING INTO THE TN
VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WILL CONTINUE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL MAINLY PASS BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS WITH NEGLIGIBLE HEIGHT CHANGES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA.

CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DIGGING ENERGY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON ITS
WAY EASTWARD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED TRAILING
BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/ TN VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY
REACHING DOWN TOWARD THE MS DELTA REGION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND THEN
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY. THE
FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING TOWARD LEVY COUNTY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE...THE TAMPA AREA FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND POINTS SOUTH
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WITH THE MAIN SYNOPTIC HEIGHT FALLS/QG FORCING
PASSING TO OUR NORTH...AND NOT MUCH COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY RAINFALL TO ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE. PROB LOOKING AT JUST A BAND OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS AND
AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO MARK THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A QUIET...COOL...AND DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS
TO BE EXPECTED FOR ALL. CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO A FEW-SCT HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AND FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR TO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY REACHING THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S
NORTH...AND LOWER 70S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS TOWARD DAWN FOR
KLAL/KPGD...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO
LEAVE OUT MENTION IN CURRENT TAFS. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF FRIDAY. EXPECT A BAND OF VFR
LEVEL SCT-BKN CLOUDS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...BUT NOT MUCH ELSE.
WINDS WILL PICK UP SOMEWHAT BETWEEN 10-14 KNOTS AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY IN CONTROL OF THE FORECAST WATERS WILL BEGIN
TO DROP SOUTH OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH AND
APPROACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALL AREAS
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS POTENTIAL APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE HIGH POSITION TO THE NORTH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW EACH OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH WINDS
AND SEAS RELAXING DURING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  53  69  46  70 /   0  10   0   0
FMY  52  73  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  50  71  46  70 /   0  10   0   0
SRQ  51  70  47  71 /   0  10   0   0
BKV  42  70  39  69 /   0  10   0   0
SPG  56  69  51  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 292340
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
640 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT...WITH A LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT
MORE TO THE NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH.  COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT WASHES
OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LONG TERM...
AS THE DIMINISHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO
DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THEY COULD MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY AND THEN MOVES NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH OF THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, HOWEVER, THERE STILL COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN EASTERLY BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  74  59  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  75  60  72 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            59  75  60  73 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           54  71  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 292340
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
640 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT...WITH A LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE MORNING AND THEN MOVE THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT
MORE TO THE NORTH TO NORTH NORTHEAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH.  COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT WASHES
OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

LONG TERM...
AS THE DIMINISHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO
DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THEY COULD MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY AND THEN MOVES NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH OF THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, HOWEVER, THERE STILL COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN EASTERLY BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  74  59  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  75  60  72 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            59  75  60  73 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           54  71  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KTAE 292143
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
443 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A shortwave trough can be seen clearly via WV imagery, embedded
within a wavy longwave trough across the eastern half of the
country. The shortwave is currently located over the Middle
Mississippi Valley and is forecast to reach the Mid-Atlantic coast
by morning. The deep synoptic forcing from this shortwave will
remain north of the Tri-State region. However, a surface cold front
that is currently draped southwest to northeast from the Southern
Plains through the Lower Mississippi Valley will be pushed through
the region as the aforementioned wave moves east. The front is
currently characterized by a sharp dewpoint gradient, with a broad
temperature gradient spread over 100-200 miles. There is fair
consensus that the cold air will catch up to the front at some point
during its passage across the local area. This will create a zone of
stronger forcing in the 1000-850mb layer and result in a more
organized line of light showers. So, while there is little to no
precip this far south along the front at this hour, expect it to
fill in a bit more late tonight into tomorrow morning. QPF amounts
should remain low, likely below a tenth of an inch.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard
on Friday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will pass through the
region by late Friday morning. There will be only a slight chance of
rain Friday morning for the Big Bend Region and offshore. By Friday
afternoon, skies will clear out and northerly winds will bring cool,
dry air to the region once again. Highs will be in the lower 60s for
most locations on Friday. Clear skies and northerly flow will make
for a chilly night Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s
expected. Saturday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer as winds
become more easterly as high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs
will be in the low to mid 60s at most locations. Clouds will begin
to move in late Saturday as a large trough extending from the Great
Plains through Baja California provides large-scale lift and
moisture over the Mississippi River Valley. Lows Saturday night will
be in the lower 40s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

On Sunday, an upper level trough is moving into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and a cutoff low remains over Baja
California/Northern Mexico. At this time, a low will develop over
the Lower Mississippi Valley at the sfc. Large batches of rain will
be likely well ahead of the cold front with abundant Gulf moisture
present. Therefore, rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. By
Monday morning, rain will be moving out and high pressure will be
moving in bringing cooler, drier air. By Tuesday night, a sfc low
will form over the Gulf near Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, clouds
will begin to move in. This low will track to the northeast bringing
high rain chances once again by Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, high
pressure will once again build into the region bringing cooler,
drier air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, changing almost daily
due to the active weather pattern. Lows will range from the low 30s
to the mid 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]
VFR conditions will fall to MVFR levels under ceilings from west
to east through the night ahead of an approaching front. Behind
the front skies will return to VFR levels. All terminals should
return to VFR by mid-morning tomorrow.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will increase and become northerly late tonight as a cold
front passes. Advisory conditions are likely in the morning hours
tomorrow in the western half of the waters. An active weather
pattern will bring moderate winds off and on throughout the week and
advisory conditions possible once again Monday morning.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A cold front will usher in some slightly cooler, drier air to our
region Friday and Saturday. Although RH values may approach locally
critical levels on Saturday afternoon, we currently do not expect
Red Flag conditions as other values (i.e. ERC, wind, RH duration,
etc.) will not be favorable.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   46  63  34  64  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   50  61  38  60  48 /  20  10   0   0  10
Dothan        40  58  32  59  43 /  20  10   0   0  10
Albany        42  60  30  59  41 /  20  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  62  33  64  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
Cross City    47  68  34  67  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  64  39  61  49 /  20  20   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 292143
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
443 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A shortwave trough can be seen clearly via WV imagery, embedded
within a wavy longwave trough across the eastern half of the
country. The shortwave is currently located over the Middle
Mississippi Valley and is forecast to reach the Mid-Atlantic coast
by morning. The deep synoptic forcing from this shortwave will
remain north of the Tri-State region. However, a surface cold front
that is currently draped southwest to northeast from the Southern
Plains through the Lower Mississippi Valley will be pushed through
the region as the aforementioned wave moves east. The front is
currently characterized by a sharp dewpoint gradient, with a broad
temperature gradient spread over 100-200 miles. There is fair
consensus that the cold air will catch up to the front at some point
during its passage across the local area. This will create a zone of
stronger forcing in the 1000-850mb layer and result in a more
organized line of light showers. So, while there is little to no
precip this far south along the front at this hour, expect it to
fill in a bit more late tonight into tomorrow morning. QPF amounts
should remain low, likely below a tenth of an inch.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will be over the Atlantic Seaboard
on Friday. At the sfc, a weak cold front will pass through the
region by late Friday morning. There will be only a slight chance of
rain Friday morning for the Big Bend Region and offshore. By Friday
afternoon, skies will clear out and northerly winds will bring cool,
dry air to the region once again. Highs will be in the lower 60s for
most locations on Friday. Clear skies and northerly flow will make
for a chilly night Friday night with lows in the low to mid 30s
expected. Saturday will be mostly sunny and slightly warmer as winds
become more easterly as high pressure is over the Southeast. Highs
will be in the low to mid 60s at most locations. Clouds will begin
to move in late Saturday as a large trough extending from the Great
Plains through Baja California provides large-scale lift and
moisture over the Mississippi River Valley. Lows Saturday night will
be in the lower 40s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

On Sunday, an upper level trough is moving into the Upper
Mississippi Valley and a cutoff low remains over Baja
California/Northern Mexico. At this time, a low will develop over
the Lower Mississippi Valley at the sfc. Large batches of rain will
be likely well ahead of the cold front with abundant Gulf moisture
present. Therefore, rain is likely Sunday into Sunday night. By
Monday morning, rain will be moving out and high pressure will be
moving in bringing cooler, drier air. By Tuesday night, a sfc low
will form over the Gulf near Texas and Louisiana. Therefore, clouds
will begin to move in. This low will track to the northeast bringing
high rain chances once again by Wednesday. Thursday afternoon, high
pressure will once again build into the region bringing cooler,
drier air. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, changing almost daily
due to the active weather pattern. Lows will range from the low 30s
to the mid 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]
VFR conditions will fall to MVFR levels under ceilings from west
to east through the night ahead of an approaching front. Behind
the front skies will return to VFR levels. All terminals should
return to VFR by mid-morning tomorrow.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will increase and become northerly late tonight as a cold
front passes. Advisory conditions are likely in the morning hours
tomorrow in the western half of the waters. An active weather
pattern will bring moderate winds off and on throughout the week and
advisory conditions possible once again Monday morning.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A cold front will usher in some slightly cooler, drier air to our
region Friday and Saturday. Although RH values may approach locally
critical levels on Saturday afternoon, we currently do not expect
Red Flag conditions as other values (i.e. ERC, wind, RH duration,
etc.) will not be favorable.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   46  63  34  64  43 /  20  10   0   0   0
Panama City   50  61  38  60  48 /  20  10   0   0  10
Dothan        40  58  32  59  43 /  20  10   0   0  10
Albany        42  60  30  59  41 /  20  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  62  33  64  43 /  10  10   0   0   0
Cross City    47  68  34  67  44 /  10  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  54  64  39  61  49 /  20  20   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KMLB 292058
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
358 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING AND REACH SOUTH FLORIDA FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
PLEASANT EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE
RIDGE AXIS SINCE WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. BUT PATCHY FOG MAY MIX WITH SMOKE NEAR ANY OF THE MANY
SMOLDERING FIRES AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

FRI...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. WILL KEEP A SILENT 10 POP. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

SAT-SUN...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOST OF ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH
IN TURN BRINGS MORE DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EVEN AT THE LOWER
LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS WHAT LITTLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING MARINE STRATOCU.

SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SUN AS NEXT SYSTEM
WINDS UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL TAP BACK INTO THE REMNANT FRONTAL BAND AS WELL AS
SOME ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE BEGINS TO VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. ISOLATED
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT A FEW WILL
BRUSH THE COAST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT BEHIND FRIDAY`S FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...A
FEW COLDER SPOTS REACHING THE UPPER 30S. AS WE`VE SEEN
RECENTLY...WITH THE TREND FOR FLOW TO BEGIN VEERING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS ALONG THE COAST FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARDS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION. LEANING TOWARDS SOME ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S SAT WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS
FROM CAPE SOUTHWARD SUN NIGHT.

MON-THURS...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. ON MON AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

12Z RUNS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POST-FRONTAL
DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED POPS IN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW QUICKLY VEERS ONSHORE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA CUT OFF EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID-WEEK SPARKING A GULF LOW...THEY ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE TIMING OF THE LOW AND FRONT SLIGHTLY...NOW LIFTING THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS N FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A ROBUST FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY.

BASED ON 12Z RUNS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST IS
WARRANTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. HOWEVER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND COULD PRODUCE
TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ESP AT FOG PRONE SITES SUCH AS FPR AND LEE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/FRI...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COLLAPSING AS RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. BUT OFFSHORE (W-SW) FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLIPS INTO SOUTH FL. WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY WITH NW WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. WILL
LIKELY NEED A CAUTION HEADLINE AT LEAST FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

SAT-SUN...SOMEWHAT CHOPPY BOATING CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15KTS IN THE
MORNING VEER EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER
MOVES OFF EASTERN US COAST AND TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SEAS 3-5FT
WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 7-9SEC.

MON-WED...NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 15-20KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS ON
TUESDAY...AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED...DUE TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SURGE BEHIND FRONT LATE MONDAY AND A LONGER
PERIOD SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MON-WED. HEIGHTS GENERALLY 3-5FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH UP TO 7 FEET AT TIMES OVER THE GULF
STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  48  69  43 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  72  47 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  49  71  49 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  49  73  51 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  69  48  71  44 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  72  45 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  50  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  50  73  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....MOSES







000
FXUS62 KMLB 292058
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
358 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL GET SHUNTED SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL FL THIS EVENING AND REACH SOUTH FLORIDA FRI MORNING AHEAD
OF A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
PLEASANT EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE BEST CHANCE MAY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS CLOSER TO THE
RIDGE AXIS SINCE WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. BUT PATCHY FOG MAY MIX WITH SMOKE NEAR ANY OF THE MANY
SMOLDERING FIRES AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

FRI...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WITH LITTLE CHANCE FOR
RAIN. THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. WILL KEEP A SILENT 10 POP. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.

SAT-SUN...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOST OF ITS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY BUILDS TOWARDS THE COAST. MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE HIGH CENTER PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH...WHICH
IN TURN BRINGS MORE DRY AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EVEN AT THE LOWER
LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AS WHAT LITTLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT THE ONSHORE FLOW TAPS
INTO LOOKS TO BE MORE IN THE FORM OF INCREASING MARINE STRATOCU.

SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BY SUN AS NEXT SYSTEM
WINDS UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WHICH WILL TAP BACK INTO THE REMNANT FRONTAL BAND AS WELL AS
SOME ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE
SURFACE BEGINS TO VEER MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH TIME. ISOLATED
SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT A FEW WILL
BRUSH THE COAST.

ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT BEHIND FRIDAY`S FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...A
FEW COLDER SPOTS REACHING THE UPPER 30S. AS WE`VE SEEN
RECENTLY...WITH THE TREND FOR FLOW TO BEGIN VEERING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS ALONG THE COAST FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARDS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION. LEANING TOWARDS SOME ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPING LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S OVERNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S SAT WILL WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS
FROM CAPE SOUTHWARD SUN NIGHT.

MON-THURS...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. ON MON AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

12Z RUNS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POST-FRONTAL
DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...LEADING TO
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH ISOLATED POPS IN FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW QUICKLY VEERS ONSHORE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. WHILE BOTH MODELS SHOW
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA CUT OFF EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MID-WEEK SPARKING A GULF LOW...THEY ARE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT IN
TERMS OF TIMING AND STRENGTH. LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED
DOWN THE TIMING OF THE LOW AND FRONT SLIGHTLY...NOW LIFTING THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS N FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A ROBUST FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WHILE THE GFS DOESN`T BRING THE FRONT THROUGH
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY.

BASED ON 12Z RUNS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ONGOING FORECAST IS
WARRANTED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS. HOWEVER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET AS RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND COULD PRODUCE
TEMPO MVFR VSBYS ESP AT FOG PRONE SITES SUCH AS FPR AND LEE.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/FRI...PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COLLAPSING AS RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. BUT OFFSHORE (W-SW) FLOW WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLIPS INTO SOUTH FL. WEAK COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY WITH NW WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. WILL
LIKELY NEED A CAUTION HEADLINE AT LEAST FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

SAT-SUN...SOMEWHAT CHOPPY BOATING CONDITIONS IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15KTS IN THE
MORNING VEER EAST-NORTHEAST 10-15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS HIGH CENTER
MOVES OFF EASTERN US COAST AND TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SEAS 3-5FT
WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 7-9SEC.

MON-WED...NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS BECOMING NORTHWEST 15-20KTS BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS ON
TUESDAY...AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM TAKES
SHAPE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED...DUE TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SURGE BEHIND FRONT LATE MONDAY AND A LONGER
PERIOD SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS MON-WED. HEIGHTS GENERALLY 3-5FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH UP TO 7 FEET AT TIMES OVER THE GULF
STREAM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  48  69  43 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  72  47 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  49  71  49 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  49  73  51 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  69  48  71  44 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  72  45 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  50  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  50  73  50 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....MOSES








000
FXUS62 KKEY 292024
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
324 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
NEARSHORE WATERS...AS AN IMPRESSIVE AND PERSISTENT MAINLAND SHADOW
HAS SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA.
TEMPERATURES. A CONVERGENT AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SET UP OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
REMAINED MUCH ABOVE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVES DOUBT TO HOW QUICKLY A 1026 MB HIGH IS
CURRENTLY MIGRATING SOUTH AS PREVIOUS GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS WERE
INDICATING. REGARDLESS OF THE WIND SPEEDS...WIND DIRECTIONS HAVE
SHIFTED MOSTLY EAST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH HAS WARMED
BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT VALUES ACROSS ISLAND STATIONS.

.FORECAST...
GENERALLY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE ISLAND
CHAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRANSIT THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY SATURDAY...AND WILL APPROACHTHE
KEYS BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ALONG
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIROMNENT WILL BE
SUBSIDENT IN NATURE. THE GRADAULLY DECAYING NATURE OF THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE INDICATED TO CROSS THE KEYS AGAIN
LATE ON MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THRUSDAY. SUBSTANTIALLY MORE UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE MONDAY FRONT. TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FRONT WILL
ALSO BE IN DOUBT...BUT GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE IT SHOULD BE THE MOST
INTENSE OF THE THREE. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO THE LOW END CHANCE (30 PERCENT)
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECASTS FOR THE TONIGHT
TIME PERIOD. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENLY INDICATED A SWIFTLY APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT...BUT AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THIS
FORECAST IT APPEARS TO BE STALLING OVER NORTH FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF
THE ENDING POSITION OF THIS HIGH BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT EASTERLY
WINDS TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES WILL BE RETAINED. ADDITIONAL BREIF MAINLAND SURGES ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY. THEREAFTER...LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD SETTLE IN
FOR FRIDAY UNTIL A FRONT APPROACHES THE KEYS ON SATURDAY. CAUTIONARY
WORDING IS INDICATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. BRIEF
SPELLS OF VFR CEILINGS BASED AROUND 4500 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...TURNING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AND RELAX TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 292024
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
324 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING
NEARSHORE WATERS...AS AN IMPRESSIVE AND PERSISTENT MAINLAND SHADOW
HAS SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA.
TEMPERATURES. A CONVERGENT AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS SET UP OVER
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND A FEW PATCHES OF DENSE CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THROUGH THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS HAVE
REMAINED MUCH ABOVE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH GIVES DOUBT TO HOW QUICKLY A 1026 MB HIGH IS
CURRENTLY MIGRATING SOUTH AS PREVIOUS GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS WERE
INDICATING. REGARDLESS OF THE WIND SPEEDS...WIND DIRECTIONS HAVE
SHIFTED MOSTLY EAST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY...WHICH HAS WARMED
BOTH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT VALUES ACROSS ISLAND STATIONS.

.FORECAST...
GENERALLY NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE ISLAND
CHAIN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRANSIT THE
EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY SATURDAY...AND WILL APPROACHTHE
KEYS BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST ALONG
THE ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIROMNENT WILL BE
SUBSIDENT IN NATURE. THE GRADAULLY DECAYING NATURE OF THIS FRONT WILL
KEEP ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE INDICATED TO CROSS THE KEYS AGAIN
LATE ON MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THRUSDAY. SUBSTANTIALLY MORE UNCERTAINTY IS PRESENT IN THE INTENSITY
OF THE MONDAY FRONT. TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FRONT WILL
ALSO BE IN DOUBT...BUT GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE IT SHOULD BE THE MOST
INTENSE OF THE THREE. AS SUCH...HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO THE LOW END CHANCE (30 PERCENT)
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECASTS FOR THE TONIGHT
TIME PERIOD. MODELS HAVE CONSISTENLY INDICATED A SWIFTLY APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT...BUT AS OF THE ISSUANCE OF THIS
FORECAST IT APPEARS TO BE STALLING OVER NORTH FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF
THE ENDING POSITION OF THIS HIGH BY MIDNIGHT...EXPECT THAT EASTERLY
WINDS TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES WILL BE RETAINED. ADDITIONAL BREIF MAINLAND SURGES ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK...MOSTLY CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CAPE
SABLE AND FLORIDA BAY. THEREAFTER...LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD SETTLE IN
FOR FRIDAY UNTIL A FRONT APPROACHES THE KEYS ON SATURDAY. CAUTIONARY
WORDING IS INDICATED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...AND MOST LIKELY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS. BRIEF
SPELLS OF VFR CEILINGS BASED AROUND 4500 FT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST NEAR 10
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS...TURNING NORTH TO NORTHEAST
AND RELAX TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KJAX 292004
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...OVER TOP OF A SURFACE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. WHILE MODELS PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE IN THE STRATUS LAYER WITH THIS FEATURE...THERE IS
NOT MUCH SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT CLEARING FOR
LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT...AIDED BY THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO HELP
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR N WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING NE TO E BY SAT MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. STILL QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT FROST POSSIBLE INLAND.

SATURDAY...A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRES TO THE SE U.S. COAST...AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. STILL
RELATIVELY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY
COOLER AT THE COAST. SAT NIGHT... SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SELY. SOME STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
WATERS AS WAA ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS FURTHER AND WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HINDERED BY MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

SUNDAY...INVERTED SFC TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE FL/GA COAST
AND PUSHING NWWD WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SLY IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR W. FLOW ALOFT NOT STRONG IN
AMPLITUDE BUT SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO HELP GENERATE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION MOVING INTO OUR REGION
DURING LATER PART OF SUNDAY. BEST POPS MAY BE ASCRIBED TO OUR W AND
NW ZONES. STILL...INSTABILITY TOO MARGINAL/LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION
OF TSTMS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. POPS ARE ELEVATED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MARCHES EWD. SUBSEQUENT FCSTS MAY UP
THE CHANCES FURTHER. FRONT FCST TO LAY ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES MONDAY
MORNING WITH SLUG OF MOISTURE PROGRESSING S OF THE AREA BY THE AFTN.
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA LATE MON THROUGH TUE WILL SCOOT QUICKLY TO
THE E COAST AND THEN OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW BEGINS AGAIN TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED AS BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND THEN THE E COAST. RAIN
CHANCES ARE ADVERTISED TO INCREASE TO THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE N CENTRAL GULF. THURSDAY...COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE S OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND IN STORE WITH COOLER TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. OWING TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AS WELL AS QUESTIONABLE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS FOR NOW FOR THE MID WEEK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z-15Z. A BAND OF STRATUS
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS. THEREFORE CONDITIONS COULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE
EARLY MORNING. LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH NEAR KGNV IN THE
MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW SWELL HEIGHTS AND
LIGHT COASTAL/BEACH WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  59  32  59 /  20  10   0   0
SSI  47  59  38  55 /  20  20   0   0
JAX  45  63  37  61 /  10  20   0   0
SGJ  45  64  43  60 /  10  20   0   0
GNV  43  66  36  66 /  10  20   0   0
OCF  44  69  37  68 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY



000
FXUS62 KJAX 292004
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...OVER TOP OF A SURFACE RIDGE.
THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE SOUTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO REACH
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST
OF FORECAST AREA AROUND NOON FRIDAY. WHILE MODELS PRODUCE A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE IN THE STRATUS LAYER WITH THIS FEATURE...THERE IS
NOT MUCH SUPPORT OF ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE...WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THIS BOUNDARY...EXPECT CLEARING FOR
LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TONIGHT...AIDED BY THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TO HELP
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY.

.SHORT TERM...

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC RIDGE REMAINS TO OUR N WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
TURNING NE TO E BY SAT MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR SOME
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. STILL QUITE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE 30S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT FROST POSSIBLE INLAND.

SATURDAY...A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS HIGH
PRES TO THE SE U.S. COAST...AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP. STILL
RELATIVELY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY
COOLER AT THE COAST. SAT NIGHT... SFC HIGH PRES MOVES OFF THE COAST
WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW SELY. SOME STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
WATERS AS WAA ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS FURTHER AND WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH NEAR THE COAST. FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HINDERED BY MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK AND INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

SUNDAY...INVERTED SFC TROUGH ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE FL/GA COAST
AND PUSHING NWWD WHILE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SLY IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO OUR W. FLOW ALOFT NOT STRONG IN
AMPLITUDE BUT SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO HELP GENERATE
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG UPWARD MOTION MOVING INTO OUR REGION
DURING LATER PART OF SUNDAY. BEST POPS MAY BE ASCRIBED TO OUR W AND
NW ZONES. STILL...INSTABILITY TOO MARGINAL/LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION
OF TSTMS. TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM TO UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. POPS ARE ELEVATED ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A SWATH OF DEEPER MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT MARCHES EWD. SUBSEQUENT FCSTS MAY UP
THE CHANCES FURTHER. FRONT FCST TO LAY ACROSS OUR SRN ZONES MONDAY
MORNING WITH SLUG OF MOISTURE PROGRESSING S OF THE AREA BY THE AFTN.
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA LATE MON THROUGH TUE WILL SCOOT QUICKLY TO
THE E COAST AND THEN OFFSHORE. RETURN FLOW BEGINS AGAIN TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED AS BOTH GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND THEN THE E COAST. RAIN
CHANCES ARE ADVERTISED TO INCREASE TO THE CHANCE RANGE AT THIS TIME
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE N CENTRAL GULF. THURSDAY...COLD
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO BE S OF THE AREA THURSDAY WITH A DRYING
TREND IN STORE WITH COOLER TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. OWING TO TIMING AND
INTENSITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AS WELL AS QUESTIONABLE DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF TSTMS FOR NOW FOR THE MID WEEK
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT...AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREA TAF SITES BETWEEN 10Z-15Z. A BAND OF STRATUS
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...ALONG WITH A FEW SPOTTY
SHOWERS. THEREFORE CONDITIONS COULD LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE
EARLY MORNING. LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH NEAR KGNV IN THE
MORNING AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LOW SWELL HEIGHTS AND
LIGHT COASTAL/BEACH WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  59  32  59 /  20  10   0   0
SSI  47  59  38  55 /  20  20   0   0
JAX  45  63  37  61 /  10  20   0   0
SGJ  45  64  43  60 /  10  20   0   0
GNV  43  66  36  66 /  10  20   0   0
OCF  44  69  37  68 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM-WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THEY
WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH.  COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT WASHES
OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.

.LONG TERM...
AS THE DIMINISHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS ON
SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO
DEVELOP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THEY COULD MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY AND THEN MOVES NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST. BOTH OF THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS FRONT WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, HOWEVER, THERE STILL COULD BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN EASTERLY BELOW 15
KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO AT LEAST
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6 FEET IN
THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  74  59  71 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  75  60  72 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            59  75  60  73 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           54  71  54  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC




000
FXUS62 KTBW 291918
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
218 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)... MAIN NORTHERN STREAM U/L FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERRIDE A WEST COAST RIDGE...RUNNING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA THEN DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. A S/W
DISTURBANCE WILL DIG ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT MOVING OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. OUT WEST...SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL CUTOFF OVER THE BAJA CA REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING...AND COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN L/L
MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.  A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.  DRY AIR ALOFT IS HOLDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT U/L SUPPORT WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
WITH JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.  TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR
CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
A COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING A DRY FLORIDA WINTER DAY. A NEW SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON SUNDAY AND MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN OVER FLORIDA. AS THE SYSTEM DIGS EAST AND
SOUTH...IT WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS...AND MAYBE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES A BIT ON TUESDAY WITH THE ECMWF STALLING THE BOUNDARY
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS TAKES IT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
BRINGS THE BOUNDARY BACK NORTH RETURNING THE AREA INTO THE WARM
SECTOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY.

FOR THE FORECAST...PREFERRED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AS EVEN THE MOST
DRASTIC CONTRASTS BETWEEN MAJOR GLOBAL GUIDANCE WAS MINIMAL.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD FORECAST THOUGH TIMING
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE WILL BE IMPORTANT TO MONITOR. DID NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTIONS OF THUNDER FOR NOW AS IT IS STILL HARD TO PINPOINT
TIMING OF THE BEST SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR VSBYS VCNTY ALL
TERMINALS...AND POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS. FOG IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT
LAL AND PGD BETWEEN 08-13Z.  INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS AT ALL
TERMINALS ON FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ON
FRIDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WINDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE WATERS MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  53  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  73  52  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  70  50  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  68  52  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  68  42  70  38 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  67  57  69  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KMFL 291755
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1255 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AROUND 00Z WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN AND AROUND 03-06Z TIME FRAME AN OFF SHORE LAND
BREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT
TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY
WINDS WITH MODERATE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES...
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S EXCEPT MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WORK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
OVER THE TAF SITES.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING BACK TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AT
LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6
FEET IN THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN
SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE 6 FEET SEAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY OVER
THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY OVER THE
EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
TO A LEAST A MODERATE THREAT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS AS THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND THE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 40S
TO 50S AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  74  57  74 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  75  59  74 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            57  76  58  75 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           52  72  54  76 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291755
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1255 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AROUND 00Z WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN AND AROUND 03-06Z TIME FRAME AN OFF SHORE LAND
BREEZE IS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT
TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY
WINDS WITH MODERATE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES...
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S EXCEPT MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WORK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
OVER THE TAF SITES.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING BACK TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AT
LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6
FEET IN THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN
SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE 6 FEET SEAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY OVER
THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY OVER THE
EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
TO A LEAST A MODERATE THREAT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS AS THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND THE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 40S
TO 50S AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  74  57  74 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  75  59  74 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            57  76  58  75 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           52  72  54  76 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...60/BD



000
FXUS62 KKEY 291600
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE KEYS...BUT MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS FOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A FEW OF THE MORE DENSE
CUMULUS CLOUD BANKS ARE SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ECHOS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL IF ANY OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. THE SHARPEST LIGHT OF INCREASING CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY MIGRATING WEST AND ITS LEADING EDGE REPRESENTS THE
FRONT EDGE OF A WIND SHIFT. MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH MOIST
CONDITIONS UP TO 5KFT...THEN EXCESSIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. OVERALL PWAT VALUE WAS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AT 0.62 INCHES.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL STATIONS AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT AT MOLASSES REEF WHICH IS ALREADY BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT NEAR 15 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT IS SET TO OVERSPREAD THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY...THE
MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH WILL DECREASE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND
DECREASE LOCAL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS ALL MARINE LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A TROPICAL
TRADE REGIME...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH
THIS EASTERLY WIND SHIFT... CLOUD COVER WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE...BUT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL COME UNDER A MORE
TROPICAL ADVECTIVE REGIME...AND THEREFORE WILL BE WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD...NO CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE ACROSS ALL
OF THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP GULF WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.
RESIDUAL SEAS FROM THE OVERNIGHT WIND SURGE WILL SLOWLY RECEDED
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY ON THESE SAME DEEP
WATERS. A PRECIPITOUS DECLINE IN THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE MAINLAND THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS CROSS THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT BOTH THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LULL TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 291600
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE KEYS...BUT MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS FOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A FEW OF THE MORE DENSE
CUMULUS CLOUD BANKS ARE SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ECHOS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL IF ANY OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. THE SHARPEST LIGHT OF INCREASING CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY MIGRATING WEST AND ITS LEADING EDGE REPRESENTS THE
FRONT EDGE OF A WIND SHIFT. MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH MOIST
CONDITIONS UP TO 5KFT...THEN EXCESSIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. OVERALL PWAT VALUE WAS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AT 0.62 INCHES.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL STATIONS AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT AT MOLASSES REEF WHICH IS ALREADY BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT NEAR 15 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT IS SET TO OVERSPREAD THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY...THE
MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH WILL DECREASE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND
DECREASE LOCAL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS ALL MARINE LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A TROPICAL
TRADE REGIME...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH
THIS EASTERLY WIND SHIFT... CLOUD COVER WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE...BUT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL COME UNDER A MORE
TROPICAL ADVECTIVE REGIME...AND THEREFORE WILL BE WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD...NO CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE ACROSS ALL
OF THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP GULF WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.
RESIDUAL SEAS FROM THE OVERNIGHT WIND SURGE WILL SLOWLY RECEDED
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY ON THESE SAME DEEP
WATERS. A PRECIPITOUS DECLINE IN THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE MAINLAND THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS CROSS THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT BOTH THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LULL TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 291600
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE KEYS...BUT MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS FOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A FEW OF THE MORE DENSE
CUMULUS CLOUD BANKS ARE SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ECHOS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL IF ANY OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. THE SHARPEST LIGHT OF INCREASING CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY MIGRATING WEST AND ITS LEADING EDGE REPRESENTS THE
FRONT EDGE OF A WIND SHIFT. MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH MOIST
CONDITIONS UP TO 5KFT...THEN EXCESSIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. OVERALL PWAT VALUE WAS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AT 0.62 INCHES.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL STATIONS AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT AT MOLASSES REEF WHICH IS ALREADY BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT NEAR 15 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT IS SET TO OVERSPREAD THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY...THE
MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH WILL DECREASE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND
DECREASE LOCAL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS ALL MARINE LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A TROPICAL
TRADE REGIME...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH
THIS EASTERLY WIND SHIFT... CLOUD COVER WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE...BUT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL COME UNDER A MORE
TROPICAL ADVECTIVE REGIME...AND THEREFORE WILL BE WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD...NO CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE ACROSS ALL
OF THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP GULF WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.
RESIDUAL SEAS FROM THE OVERNIGHT WIND SURGE WILL SLOWLY RECEDED
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY ON THESE SAME DEEP
WATERS. A PRECIPITOUS DECLINE IN THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE MAINLAND THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS CROSS THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT BOTH THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LULL TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 291600
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1100 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE KEYS...BUT MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER
IS FOUND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A FEW OF THE MORE DENSE
CUMULUS CLOUD BANKS ARE SHOWING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ECHOS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL IF ANY OF THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. THE SHARPEST LIGHT OF INCREASING CLOUD
COVER IS CURRENTLY MIGRATING WEST AND ITS LEADING EDGE REPRESENTS THE
FRONT EDGE OF A WIND SHIFT. MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH MOIST
CONDITIONS UP TO 5KFT...THEN EXCESSIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ABOVE THAT
LEVEL. OVERALL PWAT VALUE WAS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AT 0.62 INCHES.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHEASTERLY AT ALL STATIONS AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS...EXCEPT AT MOLASSES REEF WHICH IS ALREADY BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT NEAR 15 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM...
THE AFOREMENTIONED WIND SHIFT IS SET TO OVERSPREAD THE KEYS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. COINCIDENTALLY...THE
MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH WILL DECREASE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENTS...AND
DECREASE LOCAL WIND SPEEDS ACROSS ALL MARINE LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
DISTANT STRAITS OF FLORIDA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A TROPICAL
TRADE REGIME...WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. WITH
THIS EASTERLY WIND SHIFT... CLOUD COVER WILL SLIGHTLY
INCREASE...BUT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL COME UNDER A MORE
TROPICAL ADVECTIVE REGIME...AND THEREFORE WILL BE WARMER AND MORE
HUMID THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. BEYOND THE FIRST PERIOD...NO CHANGES
ARE REQUIRED IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS DECREASE ACROSS ALL
OF THE ATLANTIC AND DEEP GULF WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY.
RESIDUAL SEAS FROM THE OVERNIGHT WIND SURGE WILL SLOWLY RECEDED
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY ON THESE SAME DEEP
WATERS. A PRECIPITOUS DECLINE IN THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE NEARSHORE WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THE MAINLAND THERMAL
TROUGH EXPANDS CROSS THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT BOTH THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE
EASTERLY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LULL TONIGHT.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........MSB
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....VICKERY
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291544 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5K FT WITH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THIS MARINE LAYER AT 850
MB. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS FL
BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS VEERING TO THE
SE THIS AFTN THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. MILDER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. OCNL CIGS BKN040-050 IN MARINE SC WILL SPREAD ONSHORE MAINLY
FROM MLB-SUA INTO THE AFTN...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA THIS EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE EAST 10-15 KNOTS AND EXPECT FLOW TO
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SE AND DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
FL. WILL PARE THE CAUTION DOWN A BIT BUT SWAN SHOWS 6 FT SEAS
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD SO WILL KEEP A
"CAUTION FOR SEAS" THIS AFTN THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  48  67  45 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  70  51 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  48  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  70  51  70  45 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  51  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  46  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/MOSES








000
FXUS62 KMLB 291544 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5K FT WITH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THIS MARINE LAYER AT 850
MB. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS FL
BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS VEERING TO THE
SE THIS AFTN THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. MILDER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. OCNL CIGS BKN040-050 IN MARINE SC WILL SPREAD ONSHORE MAINLY
FROM MLB-SUA INTO THE AFTN...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA THIS EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE EAST 10-15 KNOTS AND EXPECT FLOW TO
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SE AND DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
FL. WILL PARE THE CAUTION DOWN A BIT BUT SWAN SHOWS 6 FT SEAS
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD SO WILL KEEP A
"CAUTION FOR SEAS" THIS AFTN THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  48  67  45 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  70  51 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  48  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  70  51  70  45 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  51  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  46  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/MOSES








000
FXUS62 KMLB 291544 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5K FT WITH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THIS MARINE LAYER AT 850
MB. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS FL
BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS VEERING TO THE
SE THIS AFTN THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. MILDER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. OCNL CIGS BKN040-050 IN MARINE SC WILL SPREAD ONSHORE MAINLY
FROM MLB-SUA INTO THE AFTN...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA THIS EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE EAST 10-15 KNOTS AND EXPECT FLOW TO
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SE AND DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
FL. WILL PARE THE CAUTION DOWN A BIT BUT SWAN SHOWS 6 FT SEAS
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD SO WILL KEEP A
"CAUTION FOR SEAS" THIS AFTN THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  48  67  45 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  70  51 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  48  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  70  51  70  45 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  51  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  46  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/MOSES








000
FXUS62 KMLB 291544 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1040 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 5K FT WITH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT THE TOP OF THIS MARINE LAYER AT 850
MB. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS ONSHORE BUT NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS FL
BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING WINDS VEERING TO THE
SE THIS AFTN THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. MILDER
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S...VERY CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. OCNL CIGS BKN040-050 IN MARINE SC WILL SPREAD ONSHORE MAINLY
FROM MLB-SUA INTO THE AFTN...THEN DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA THIS EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE EAST 10-15 KNOTS AND EXPECT FLOW TO
CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SE AND DECREASE BELOW 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO
FL. WILL PARE THE CAUTION DOWN A BIT BUT SWAN SHOWS 6 FT SEAS
REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD SO WILL KEEP A
"CAUTION FOR SEAS" THIS AFTN THERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  48  67  45 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  70  51 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  48  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  70  51  70  45 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  51  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  46  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/MOSES








000
FXUS62 KTAE 291500
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure situated along the southern Atlantic states
will slowly slide southeastward off the coast through the day. With
stacked weak high pressure aloft of the Gulf coast, skies will stay
mostly clear. Highs today will be in the mid 60s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with winds less than 10 knots generally from the south.


&&

.Prev Discussion [344 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region overnight. Only an
increase in cloud cover is expected right ahead of the boundary.
Breezy northwest winds on Friday will bring in a drier and cooler
airmass. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s
across the northern counties. With the high pressure area not
getting into the region until Saturday afternoon, winds will
remain strong enough overnight into Saturday to likely prevent
freezing temperatures.

As the high pressure area moves off to the east, the moistening
trend will begin with southerly flow increasing late in the day on
Saturday.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The next storm system will approach the area at the beginning of
the period. The models seem to be converging to a common solution
now of strong isentropic ascent ahead of the developing low
pressure area late Sunday afternoon generating an area of precip
followed by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
night as the cold front sweeps through the forecast area.

Late Monday, the surface boundary will stall across the Central
Gulf as an upper low back across Southern Baja ejects eastward
across Mexico and initiates surface cyclogenesis across the far
Western Gulf on Tuesday. Its at this point that the GFS/Euro
diverge considerably. The 29/00z Euro indicates some degree of
phasing between the upper low over Mexico and an approaching
northern stream shortwave. This results in the upper low ejecting
further northward, pulling the attendant surface feature and
frontal zone further northward into our area. This pattern would
suggest a moderate to heavy rain threat for the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

Alternatively, the 29/00z GFS has less phasing between the
Southern/Northern stream mid and upper level features, thus the
next storm system stays largely to the south of the region,
tracking across the Florida Peninsula.

The Euro has been consistent in a more northern solution in the
last few runs, while the GFS has been flipping back and forth.
Given this, have trended the forecast wetter at the tail end of
the extended, where what overlap there is favors increased rain
chances for the Florida counties.


.Marine...
Winds will remain on the low side until Friday when they will
begin an increase to cautionary levels by Friday night. Winds will
diminish again late Saturday as high pressure moves near to the
marine area. The next storm system approaches on Sunday, resulting
in increasing southerly flow.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.


.Hydrology...
The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  45  63  35  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   62  50  60  39  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  45  58  34  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  59  33  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  46  62  35  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
Cross City    66  44  66  36  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  51  64  41  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 291500
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure situated along the southern Atlantic states
will slowly slide southeastward off the coast through the day. With
stacked weak high pressure aloft of the Gulf coast, skies will stay
mostly clear. Highs today will be in the mid 60s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with winds less than 10 knots generally from the south.


&&

.Prev Discussion [344 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region overnight. Only an
increase in cloud cover is expected right ahead of the boundary.
Breezy northwest winds on Friday will bring in a drier and cooler
airmass. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s
across the northern counties. With the high pressure area not
getting into the region until Saturday afternoon, winds will
remain strong enough overnight into Saturday to likely prevent
freezing temperatures.

As the high pressure area moves off to the east, the moistening
trend will begin with southerly flow increasing late in the day on
Saturday.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The next storm system will approach the area at the beginning of
the period. The models seem to be converging to a common solution
now of strong isentropic ascent ahead of the developing low
pressure area late Sunday afternoon generating an area of precip
followed by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
night as the cold front sweeps through the forecast area.

Late Monday, the surface boundary will stall across the Central
Gulf as an upper low back across Southern Baja ejects eastward
across Mexico and initiates surface cyclogenesis across the far
Western Gulf on Tuesday. Its at this point that the GFS/Euro
diverge considerably. The 29/00z Euro indicates some degree of
phasing between the upper low over Mexico and an approaching
northern stream shortwave. This results in the upper low ejecting
further northward, pulling the attendant surface feature and
frontal zone further northward into our area. This pattern would
suggest a moderate to heavy rain threat for the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

Alternatively, the 29/00z GFS has less phasing between the
Southern/Northern stream mid and upper level features, thus the
next storm system stays largely to the south of the region,
tracking across the Florida Peninsula.

The Euro has been consistent in a more northern solution in the
last few runs, while the GFS has been flipping back and forth.
Given this, have trended the forecast wetter at the tail end of
the extended, where what overlap there is favors increased rain
chances for the Florida counties.


.Marine...
Winds will remain on the low side until Friday when they will
begin an increase to cautionary levels by Friday night. Winds will
diminish again late Saturday as high pressure moves near to the
marine area. The next storm system approaches on Sunday, resulting
in increasing southerly flow.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.


.Hydrology...
The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  45  63  35  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   62  50  60  39  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  45  58  34  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  59  33  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  46  62  35  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
Cross City    66  44  66  36  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  51  64  41  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 291500
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure situated along the southern Atlantic states
will slowly slide southeastward off the coast through the day. With
stacked weak high pressure aloft of the Gulf coast, skies will stay
mostly clear. Highs today will be in the mid 60s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with winds less than 10 knots generally from the south.


&&

.Prev Discussion [344 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region overnight. Only an
increase in cloud cover is expected right ahead of the boundary.
Breezy northwest winds on Friday will bring in a drier and cooler
airmass. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s
across the northern counties. With the high pressure area not
getting into the region until Saturday afternoon, winds will
remain strong enough overnight into Saturday to likely prevent
freezing temperatures.

As the high pressure area moves off to the east, the moistening
trend will begin with southerly flow increasing late in the day on
Saturday.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The next storm system will approach the area at the beginning of
the period. The models seem to be converging to a common solution
now of strong isentropic ascent ahead of the developing low
pressure area late Sunday afternoon generating an area of precip
followed by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
night as the cold front sweeps through the forecast area.

Late Monday, the surface boundary will stall across the Central
Gulf as an upper low back across Southern Baja ejects eastward
across Mexico and initiates surface cyclogenesis across the far
Western Gulf on Tuesday. Its at this point that the GFS/Euro
diverge considerably. The 29/00z Euro indicates some degree of
phasing between the upper low over Mexico and an approaching
northern stream shortwave. This results in the upper low ejecting
further northward, pulling the attendant surface feature and
frontal zone further northward into our area. This pattern would
suggest a moderate to heavy rain threat for the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

Alternatively, the 29/00z GFS has less phasing between the
Southern/Northern stream mid and upper level features, thus the
next storm system stays largely to the south of the region,
tracking across the Florida Peninsula.

The Euro has been consistent in a more northern solution in the
last few runs, while the GFS has been flipping back and forth.
Given this, have trended the forecast wetter at the tail end of
the extended, where what overlap there is favors increased rain
chances for the Florida counties.


.Marine...
Winds will remain on the low side until Friday when they will
begin an increase to cautionary levels by Friday night. Winds will
diminish again late Saturday as high pressure moves near to the
marine area. The next storm system approaches on Sunday, resulting
in increasing southerly flow.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.


.Hydrology...
The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  45  63  35  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   62  50  60  39  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  45  58  34  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  59  33  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  46  62  35  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
Cross City    66  44  66  36  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  51  64  41  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 291500
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1000 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure situated along the southern Atlantic states
will slowly slide southeastward off the coast through the day. With
stacked weak high pressure aloft of the Gulf coast, skies will stay
mostly clear. Highs today will be in the mid 60s.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with winds less than 10 knots generally from the south.


&&

.Prev Discussion [344 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region overnight. Only an
increase in cloud cover is expected right ahead of the boundary.
Breezy northwest winds on Friday will bring in a drier and cooler
airmass. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s
across the northern counties. With the high pressure area not
getting into the region until Saturday afternoon, winds will
remain strong enough overnight into Saturday to likely prevent
freezing temperatures.

As the high pressure area moves off to the east, the moistening
trend will begin with southerly flow increasing late in the day on
Saturday.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The next storm system will approach the area at the beginning of
the period. The models seem to be converging to a common solution
now of strong isentropic ascent ahead of the developing low
pressure area late Sunday afternoon generating an area of precip
followed by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
night as the cold front sweeps through the forecast area.

Late Monday, the surface boundary will stall across the Central
Gulf as an upper low back across Southern Baja ejects eastward
across Mexico and initiates surface cyclogenesis across the far
Western Gulf on Tuesday. Its at this point that the GFS/Euro
diverge considerably. The 29/00z Euro indicates some degree of
phasing between the upper low over Mexico and an approaching
northern stream shortwave. This results in the upper low ejecting
further northward, pulling the attendant surface feature and
frontal zone further northward into our area. This pattern would
suggest a moderate to heavy rain threat for the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

Alternatively, the 29/00z GFS has less phasing between the
Southern/Northern stream mid and upper level features, thus the
next storm system stays largely to the south of the region,
tracking across the Florida Peninsula.

The Euro has been consistent in a more northern solution in the
last few runs, while the GFS has been flipping back and forth.
Given this, have trended the forecast wetter at the tail end of
the extended, where what overlap there is favors increased rain
chances for the Florida counties.


.Marine...
Winds will remain on the low side until Friday when they will
begin an increase to cautionary levels by Friday night. Winds will
diminish again late Saturday as high pressure moves near to the
marine area. The next storm system approaches on Sunday, resulting
in increasing southerly flow.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.


.Hydrology...
The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  45  63  35  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   62  50  60  39  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  45  58  34  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  59  33  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  46  62  35  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
Cross City    66  44  66  36  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  51  64  41  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KJAX 291449
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS TO EXPIRE/CANCEL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCT
AS TEMPERATURES ROSE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AS THE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH TODAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY PUSH A FEW STRATUS ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  45  57  33 /   0  20  10   0
SSI  60  48  57  40 /   0  20  20   0
JAX  65  47  61  39 /   0  10  20   0
SGJ  65  49  62  46 /   0  10  20   0
GNV  67  45  64  38 /   0  10  20   0
OCF  68  46  66  40 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291449
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST PRODUCTS TO EXPIRE/CANCEL FROST/FREEZE PRODUCT
AS TEMPERATURES ROSE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AS THE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTH TODAY...WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTH. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY PUSH A FEW STRATUS ONSHORE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  45  57  33 /   0  20  10   0
SSI  60  48  57  40 /   0  20  20   0
JAX  65  47  61  39 /   0  10  20   0
SGJ  65  49  62  46 /   0  10  20   0
GNV  67  45  64  38 /   0  10  20   0
OCF  68  46  66  40 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 291446
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
946 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S NORTH...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CENTRAL...AND MID 70S SOUTH
WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS FOR LATE JANUARY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH 12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATING PCPW OF ONLY
0.30 INCHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH MAIN U/L SUPPORT REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH
AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR VSBYS VCNTY ALL
TERMINALS...AND POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS. FOG IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT
LAL AND PGD BETWEEN 08-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
KEEP WINDS BELOW HEADLINES. EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 291446
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
946 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S NORTH...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CENTRAL...AND MID 70S SOUTH
WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS FOR LATE JANUARY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH 12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATING PCPW OF ONLY
0.30 INCHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH MAIN U/L SUPPORT REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH
AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR VSBYS VCNTY ALL
TERMINALS...AND POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS. FOG IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT
LAL AND PGD BETWEEN 08-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
KEEP WINDS BELOW HEADLINES. EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 291446
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
946 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S NORTH...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CENTRAL...AND MID 70S SOUTH
WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS FOR LATE JANUARY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH 12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATING PCPW OF ONLY
0.30 INCHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH MAIN U/L SUPPORT REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH
AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR VSBYS VCNTY ALL
TERMINALS...AND POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS. FOG IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT
LAL AND PGD BETWEEN 08-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
KEEP WINDS BELOW HEADLINES. EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 291446
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
946 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S NORTH...UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S CENTRAL...AND MID 70S SOUTH
WHICH IS NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS FOR LATE JANUARY.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH 12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATING PCPW OF ONLY
0.30 INCHES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY...BUT WITH MAIN U/L SUPPORT REMAINING WELL TO THE NORTH
AND DRY AIR IN PLACE...SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ONLY
INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND MUCH OF TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WITH LCL MVFR VSBYS VCNTY ALL
TERMINALS...AND POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS. FOG IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT
LAL AND PGD BETWEEN 08-13Z.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND
KEEP WINDS BELOW HEADLINES. EAST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...05/CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA






000
FXUS62 KMFL 291437
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT
TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY
WINDS WITH MODERATE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

.INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES...
.FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S EXCEPT MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WORK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
OVER THE TAF SITES.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING BACK TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AT
LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6
FEET IN THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN
SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE 6 FEET SEAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY OVER
THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY OVER THE
EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
TO A LEAST A MODERATE THREAT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS AS THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND THE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 40S
TO 50S AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  56  74  57 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  58  75  59 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            73  57  76  58 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  52  72  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291437
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
EVERYTHING LOOKS ON TRACK. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO SHIFT
TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO
CONTINUE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS AND INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 ALONG THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 549 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY
WINDS WITH MODERATE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

.INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES...
.FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S EXCEPT MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WORK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
OVER THE TAF SITES.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING BACK TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AT
LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6
FEET IN THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN
SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE 6 FEET SEAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY OVER
THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY OVER THE
EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
TO A LEAST A MODERATE THREAT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS AS THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND THE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 40S
TO 50S AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  56  74  57 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  58  75  59 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            73  57  76  58 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  52  72  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC




000
FXUS62 KKEY 291127
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
627 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/30TH...DESPITE PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED
BETWEEN 040-050...VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 291127
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
627 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 00Z/30TH...DESPITE PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED
BETWEEN 040-050...VFR CONDTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291049
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
549 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY
WINDS WITH MODERATE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

..INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES...
..FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S EXCEPT MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WORK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
OVER THE TAF SITES.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING BACK TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AT
LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6
FEET IN THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN
SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE 6 FEET SEAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY OVER
THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY OVER THE
EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
TO A LEAST A MODERATE THREAT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS AS THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND THE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 40S
TO 50S AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  56  74  57 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  58  75  59 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            73  57  76  58 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  52  72  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291049
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
549 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HR TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY
WINDS WITH MODERATE GUSTS WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015/

..INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES...
..FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S EXCEPT MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WORK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
OVER THE TAF SITES.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING BACK TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AT
LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6
FEET IN THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN
SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE 6 FEET SEAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY OVER
THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY OVER THE
EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
TO A LEAST A MODERATE THREAT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS AS THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND THE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 40S
TO 50S AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  56  74  57 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  58  75  59 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            73  57  76  58 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  52  72  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KTAE 290844
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure will remain the dominant feature locally today
with dry conditions. The center of the high will slide east of the
area by the end of the day as a weak cold front approaches.
Afternoon high temperatures in the mid 60s are expected.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region overnight. Only an
increase in cloud cover is expected right ahead of the boundary.
Breezy northwest winds on Friday will bring in a drier and cooler
airmass. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s
across the northern counties. With the high pressure area not
getting into the region until Saturday afternoon, winds will
remain strong enough overnight into Saturday to likely prevent
freezing temperatures.

As the high pressure area moves off to the east, the moistening
trend will begin with southerly flow increasing late in the day on
Saturday.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The next storm system will approach the area at the beginning of
the period. The models seem to be converging to a common solution
now of strong isentropic ascent ahead of the developing low
pressure area late Sunday afternoon generating an area of precip
followed by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
night as the cold front sweeps through the forecast area.

Late Monday, the surface boundary will stall across the Central
Gulf as an upper low back across Southern Baja ejects eastward
across Mexico and initiates surface cyclogenesis across the far
Western Gulf on Tuesday. Its at this point that the GFS/Euro
diverge considerably. The 29/00z Euro indicates some degree of
phasing between the upper low over Mexico and an approaching
northern stream shortwave. This results in the upper low ejecting
further northward, pulling the attendant surface feature and
frontal zone further northward into our area. This pattern would
suggest a moderate to heavy rain threat for the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

Alternatively, the 29/00z GFS has less phasing between the
Southern/Northern stream mid and upper level features, thus the
next storm system stays largely to the south of the region,
tracking across the Florida Peninsula.

The Euro has been consistent in a more northern solution in the
last few runs, while the GFS has been flipping back and forth.
Given this, have trended the forecast wetter at the tail end of
the extended, where what overlap there is favors increased rain
chances for the Florida counties.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with light winds.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will remain on the low side until Friday when they will
begin an increase to cautionary levels by Friday night. Winds will
diminish again late Saturday as high pressure moves near to the
marine area. The next storm system approaches on Sunday, resulting
in increasing southerly flow.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  45  63  35  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   62  50  60  39  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  45  58  34  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  59  33  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  46  62  35  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
Cross City    66  44  66  36  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  51  64  41  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 290844
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface high pressure will remain the dominant feature locally today
with dry conditions. The center of the high will slide east of the
area by the end of the day as a weak cold front approaches.
Afternoon high temperatures in the mid 60s are expected.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A dry cold front will move through the region overnight. Only an
increase in cloud cover is expected right ahead of the boundary.
Breezy northwest winds on Friday will bring in a drier and cooler
airmass. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 50s
across the northern counties. With the high pressure area not
getting into the region until Saturday afternoon, winds will
remain strong enough overnight into Saturday to likely prevent
freezing temperatures.

As the high pressure area moves off to the east, the moistening
trend will begin with southerly flow increasing late in the day on
Saturday.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The next storm system will approach the area at the beginning of
the period. The models seem to be converging to a common solution
now of strong isentropic ascent ahead of the developing low
pressure area late Sunday afternoon generating an area of precip
followed by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday
night as the cold front sweeps through the forecast area.

Late Monday, the surface boundary will stall across the Central
Gulf as an upper low back across Southern Baja ejects eastward
across Mexico and initiates surface cyclogenesis across the far
Western Gulf on Tuesday. Its at this point that the GFS/Euro
diverge considerably. The 29/00z Euro indicates some degree of
phasing between the upper low over Mexico and an approaching
northern stream shortwave. This results in the upper low ejecting
further northward, pulling the attendant surface feature and
frontal zone further northward into our area. This pattern would
suggest a moderate to heavy rain threat for the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday.

Alternatively, the 29/00z GFS has less phasing between the
Southern/Northern stream mid and upper level features, thus the
next storm system stays largely to the south of the region,
tracking across the Florida Peninsula.

The Euro has been consistent in a more northern solution in the
last few runs, while the GFS has been flipping back and forth.
Given this, have trended the forecast wetter at the tail end of
the extended, where what overlap there is favors increased rain
chances for the Florida counties.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period with light winds.

&&

.Marine...
Winds will remain on the low side until Friday when they will
begin an increase to cautionary levels by Friday night. Winds will
diminish again late Saturday as high pressure moves near to the
marine area. The next storm system approaches on Sunday, resulting
in increasing southerly flow.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not likely over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
The Ochlockonee River has crested through Concord this morning
with Havana likely to crest in the next 24 hours just above flood
stage. The Withlacoochee below Valdosta is still rising and will
likely crest around 18.5 feet early on Friday at the US-84 gage,
just below flood stage. Aside from the Havana and US-84 sites
being around flood stage, no further river flooding from last
week`s rainfall is expected.

Streamflows remain above to well above normal across the entire
region. Overall rainfall from Sunday`s storm system shouldn`t
exceed 1.5 inches across any particular basin, suggesting little
or no river flood threat. However, this rainfall will slow the
rate of recession across area river basins and possibly set the
stage for river flooding late next week should the heavier
rainfall solution with Wednesday`s storm materialize.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  45  63  35  64 /   0  10   0   0   0
Panama City   62  50  60  39  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Dothan        64  45  58  34  60 /   0  10   0   0   0
Albany        63  43  59  33  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  46  62  35  64 /   0  10  10   0   0
Cross City    66  44  66  36  66 /   0  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  62  51  64  41  59 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KMLB 290839
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE ERN CONUS WITH AXIS
RUNNING THE BREADTH OF THE EAST COAST STATES FROM NY/NEW ENGLAND SWD
INTO NORTH FL. DEVELOPING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE STARTING
TO PUSH MARINE STRATOCU ONSHORE THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF FL WHILE
NORTH TO NW DRAINAGE FLOW PREVAILS OVER LAND. THIS IS GIVING RISE TO
A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE ATTM. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
NE OVER SOME LAND STATIONS ON THE CAPE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS...CAUSING THE USUAL DISPARITY IN CURRENT TEMPS.
MOST AREAS ARE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME U30S ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA.
TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S AND RISING OVER THE CAPE AND BREVARD CO BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH 60S FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SWD. THE TREASURE COAST HAS
A NEARLY 15F TEMP SPREAD OVER AN AREA AS SMALL AS 2-3 MILES.

TODAY/TONIGHT....THE ERN CONUS RIDGE GETS SHUNTED E-SE AND SQUEEZED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW WHICH WINDS UP
CAUSING THE SRN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO PINCH OFF AND DROP SWD OVER
FL BY TONIGHT. RESULT WILL BE WINDS VEERING QUICKLY TO NE AND THEN
EASTERLY BY LATE MORNING...WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOON...TO CALM OR
NEARLY SO BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS MILD MARINE AIR
PUSHES INLAND BEHIND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DIFFUSE COASTAL BOUNDARY (NO
SIGN OF IT ON LOCAL EAST COAST RADARS YET). MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
70F MOST AREAS...U60S ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD OWING TO
THE COOLER SHELF WATER TEMPS THERE.

WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPOTTY...SHALLOW GROUND MIST FORM
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE BLYR DECOUPLES AND WINDS GO LIGHT
TO CALM POST-SUNSET. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SPOTS WHERE
"FIELD FOG" TYPICALLY FORMS AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING...
SHOULD IT FORM. COOL AGAIN WITH MINS IN THE 45-50F RANGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS.

FRI...TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRI AFT AND EARLY EVE. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AND WITH MOS GUIDANCE KEEPING FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH SLIGHT WIND SURGE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS FRI WILL BE NEAR TO JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
TO LOW 70S FARTHER SOUTH. N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
DRIER/COOLER AIR FRI NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS THE LOW TO MID
40S INLAND AND ALONG VOLUSIA COAST.

SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
QUICKLY VEER WINDS BACK ONSHORE SAT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
FAIRLY SHALLOW FOR ISO SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO DEVELOP.
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR ISO
COASTAL SHOWERS SUN AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS AND
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SAT WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM CAPE
SOUTHWARD SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. ON MON
AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MORE MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BEHIND THIS
FRONT AS FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ONSHORE TUE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE TWO DEVELOPS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF THAT LIFTS E/NE AND ACROSS N FL WED. DUE TO FEWER RUN TO
RUN CHANGES WITH THIS MODEL WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO WED. HOWEVER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. PREVAILING CIGS BKN040-050 IN MARINE SC WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE DAB-SUA CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z...AND START TO ERODE AS THE
H85 RIDGE AXIS DROPS OVHD AND SFC-H85 FLOW COLLAPSES.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS HAD DROPPED TO A LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF 15KT AS OF
3AM...WITH SEAS 3-5FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-6FT WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN AS RIDGE DROPS OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT.
4AM SCA EXPIRATION LOOKS GOOD...WILL RUN WITH A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THAT TOO WILL LIKELY DROP OFF BY 10 AM.

FRI-MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS FRI WITH WEST WINDS
BECOMING N/NW AND INCREASING UP TO 15-20 KNOTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE FRI AFT INTO FRI NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AS THE
VEER TO THE E/NE SAT AND THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE S/SE SUN. SEAS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 5 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS MON LEADING TO
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS N/NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF FAR WRN VOLUSIA/SEMINOLE/ORANGE AND
NW OSCEOLA COS. NO WIND CONCERNS. AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS BECOMING EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  48  67  45 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  70  51 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  48  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  70  51  70  45 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  51  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  46  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH






000
FXUS62 KMLB 290839
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE ERN CONUS WITH AXIS
RUNNING THE BREADTH OF THE EAST COAST STATES FROM NY/NEW ENGLAND SWD
INTO NORTH FL. DEVELOPING ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE STARTING
TO PUSH MARINE STRATOCU ONSHORE THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF FL WHILE
NORTH TO NW DRAINAGE FLOW PREVAILS OVER LAND. THIS IS GIVING RISE TO
A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE ATTM. WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
NE OVER SOME LAND STATIONS ON THE CAPE AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS...CAUSING THE USUAL DISPARITY IN CURRENT TEMPS.
MOST AREAS ARE IN THE 40S...WITH SOME U30S ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA.
TEMPS ARE IN THE 50S AND RISING OVER THE CAPE AND BREVARD CO BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH 60S FROM SEBASTIAN INLET SWD. THE TREASURE COAST HAS
A NEARLY 15F TEMP SPREAD OVER AN AREA AS SMALL AS 2-3 MILES.

TODAY/TONIGHT....THE ERN CONUS RIDGE GETS SHUNTED E-SE AND SQUEEZED
BY A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW WHICH WINDS UP
CAUSING THE SRN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO PINCH OFF AND DROP SWD OVER
FL BY TONIGHT. RESULT WILL BE WINDS VEERING QUICKLY TO NE AND THEN
EASTERLY BY LATE MORNING...WEAKENING IN THE AFTERNOON...TO CALM OR
NEARLY SO BY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS MILD MARINE AIR
PUSHES INLAND BEHIND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DIFFUSE COASTAL BOUNDARY (NO
SIGN OF IT ON LOCAL EAST COAST RADARS YET). MAX TEMPS WILL REACH
70F MOST AREAS...U60S ALONG COASTAL VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD OWING TO
THE COOLER SHELF WATER TEMPS THERE.

WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SPOTTY...SHALLOW GROUND MIST FORM
OVERNIGHT...GIVEN HOW QUICKLY THE BLYR DECOUPLES AND WINDS GO LIGHT
TO CALM POST-SUNSET. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SPOTS WHERE
"FIELD FOG" TYPICALLY FORMS AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTING...
SHOULD IT FORM. COOL AGAIN WITH MINS IN THE 45-50F RANGE ACROSS MOST
AREAS.

FRI...TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO FRI AFT AND EARLY EVE. NOT
MUCH MOISTURE OR LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
AND WITH MOS GUIDANCE KEEPING FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY OVER LAND WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER MAY SEE A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH SLIGHT WIND SURGE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. HIGHS FRI WILL BE NEAR TO JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY
TO LOW 70S FARTHER SOUTH. N/NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
DRIER/COOLER AIR FRI NIGHT WITH MIN TEMPS AS LOW AS THE LOW TO MID
40S INLAND AND ALONG VOLUSIA COAST.

SAT-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
QUICKLY VEER WINDS BACK ONSHORE SAT WHICH WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY THE
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. HOWEVER DEPTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS
FAIRLY SHALLOW FOR ISO SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO DEVELOP.
WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST FOR SAT WITH BETTER CHANCE FOR ISO
COASTAL SHOWERS SUN AS LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS AND
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SAT WILL WARM
INTO THE LOW/MID 70S SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
BE IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM CAPE
SOUTHWARD SUN NIGHT.

MON-WED...PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. ON MON
AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MORE MOISTURE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. DRY/COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL AGAIN BE LIMITED BEHIND THIS
FRONT AS FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES ONSHORE TUE.

FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN
THE MORE CONSISTENT OF THE TWO DEVELOPS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF THAT LIFTS E/NE AND ACROSS N FL WED. DUE TO FEWER RUN TO
RUN CHANGES WITH THIS MODEL WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION WITH
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO WED. HOWEVER DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES
THIS FAR OUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. PREVAILING CIGS BKN040-050 IN MARINE SC WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE DAB-SUA CORRIDOR THROUGH 15Z...AND START TO ERODE AS THE
H85 RIDGE AXIS DROPS OVHD AND SFC-H85 FLOW COLLAPSES.

&&

.MARINE...NE WINDS HAD DROPPED TO A LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF 15KT AS OF
3AM...WITH SEAS 3-5FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-6FT WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS/SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN AS RIDGE DROPS OVERHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT.
4AM SCA EXPIRATION LOOKS GOOD...WILL RUN WITH A CAUTIONARY STATEMENT
FOR EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THAT TOO WILL LIKELY DROP OFF BY 10 AM.

FRI-MON...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS FRI WITH WEST WINDS
BECOMING N/NW AND INCREASING UP TO 15-20 KNOTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY
LATE FRI AFT INTO FRI NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AS THE
VEER TO THE E/NE SAT AND THEN CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE S/SE SUN. SEAS
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 5 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS MON LEADING TO
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS N/NW WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 35 AND 40 PERCENT ACROSS LAKE
COUNTY AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF FAR WRN VOLUSIA/SEMINOLE/ORANGE AND
NW OSCEOLA COS. NO WIND CONCERNS. AS ONSHORE FLOW WILL DECREASE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH NE WINDS BECOMING EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  48  67  45 /   0   0  10   0
MCO  70  49  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  70  51 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  70  48  72  52 /  10   0   0  10
LEE  70  51  70  45 /   0   0  10   0
SFB  69  49  70  46 /   0   0  10   0
ORL  69  51  71  49 /   0   0  10   0
FPR  70  46  72  52 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KKEY 290835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300
AM ILLUSTRATE THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS NOW
MIGRATED EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ALIGNED NEAR 70 DEGREES
WEST. UPSTREAM OF THAT...A MOSTLY ZONAL/WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC MID AND
UPPER FLOW IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR IOWA AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AND
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...THE AXIS OF A
NEAR 1030 MB COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NEW YORK STATE
SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. AS SUCH...LAST EVENINGS 00Z
SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A FRESH AND VERY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
FROM 1000 FEET AGL UP TO 500 MB...BECOMING NORTHWEST ABOVE
THAT...WITH A 3 DEGREE C INVERSION FROM ABOUT 950 MB TO 850 MB...WITH
TOTAL PWAT AT ONLY .38 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE KEYS AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE LEADING NORTH NORTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY EDGE OF A THINLY VEILED STRATOCU SHIELD
POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
COMFORTABLE 40S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF...FLORIDA
BAY...AND ARE REGISTERING 10 METER NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
BECOMES MAINLY ZONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE WEEKEND. VERY DRY
AIR CONTINUES ALOFT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NW CANADA DOES
CARVE OUT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONCISE IT REACHES
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...BUT WITH NOW
IMPACT AT KEYS LATITUDE. ONLY JUST A FEW WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.

THE NEAR 1030 MB SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABORAD THIS
MORNING SLIDES EASTWARD. LOCALLY...THE MSLP GRADIENT LOOSENS AS A
WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SOUTH
BUT JUST REMAINS A 1020-1023 MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER 1035 HIGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN COMBO WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
RESULTS IN ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA
AND ACROSS THE KEYS...WIND AN ASSOCIATED SURGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...BEFORE SLIDING INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DARTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND THEN DEEPENS OFFSHORE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE NEXT FRONT NEAR THE KEYS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

BOTH THE LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF  AND GFS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN VERY DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASE PWAT TO BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...SO HAVE JUST INSERTED A DIME POP IN THE GRIDS
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY MORNING...AND REMOVED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE INDICATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE KEYS REMAIN IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AT 500 MB. BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE AMPLE MOISTURE IN 1000-700 MB LAYER WITH COLD
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS THRU THIS TIME. GIVEN
LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATION OF PWAT BETWEEN 1.00
AND 1.50 INCHES UNTIL THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR NIGHT...HAVE BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP DIME POPS IN THE GRIDS THRU
THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...HI AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JANUARY WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY. HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING
ACROSS ALL WATERS UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL LET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY AND HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
RESULT IN HEADLINES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AGAIN BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS LET DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/30TH...DESPITE PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED
BETWEEN 040-050...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE....ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1877...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 86 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST WHICH STANDS
138 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  62  74  64 / 0 -  -  -
MARATHON  71  62  73  64 / 0 -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.............APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 290835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300
AM ILLUSTRATE THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS NOW
MIGRATED EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ALIGNED NEAR 70 DEGREES
WEST. UPSTREAM OF THAT...A MOSTLY ZONAL/WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC MID AND
UPPER FLOW IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR IOWA AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AND
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...THE AXIS OF A
NEAR 1030 MB COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NEW YORK STATE
SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. AS SUCH...LAST EVENINGS 00Z
SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A FRESH AND VERY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
FROM 1000 FEET AGL UP TO 500 MB...BECOMING NORTHWEST ABOVE
THAT...WITH A 3 DEGREE C INVERSION FROM ABOUT 950 MB TO 850 MB...WITH
TOTAL PWAT AT ONLY .38 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE KEYS AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE LEADING NORTH NORTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY EDGE OF A THINLY VEILED STRATOCU SHIELD
POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
COMFORTABLE 40S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF...FLORIDA
BAY...AND ARE REGISTERING 10 METER NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
BECOMES MAINLY ZONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE WEEKEND. VERY DRY
AIR CONTINUES ALOFT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NW CANADA DOES
CARVE OUT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONCISE IT REACHES
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...BUT WITH NOW
IMPACT AT KEYS LATITUDE. ONLY JUST A FEW WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.

THE NEAR 1030 MB SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABORAD THIS
MORNING SLIDES EASTWARD. LOCALLY...THE MSLP GRADIENT LOOSENS AS A
WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SOUTH
BUT JUST REMAINS A 1020-1023 MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER 1035 HIGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN COMBO WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
RESULTS IN ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA
AND ACROSS THE KEYS...WIND AN ASSOCIATED SURGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...BEFORE SLIDING INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DARTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND THEN DEEPENS OFFSHORE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE NEXT FRONT NEAR THE KEYS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

BOTH THE LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF  AND GFS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN VERY DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASE PWAT TO BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...SO HAVE JUST INSERTED A DIME POP IN THE GRIDS
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY MORNING...AND REMOVED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE INDICATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE KEYS REMAIN IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AT 500 MB. BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE AMPLE MOISTURE IN 1000-700 MB LAYER WITH COLD
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS THRU THIS TIME. GIVEN
LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATION OF PWAT BETWEEN 1.00
AND 1.50 INCHES UNTIL THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR NIGHT...HAVE BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP DIME POPS IN THE GRIDS THRU
THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...HI AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JANUARY WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY. HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING
ACROSS ALL WATERS UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL LET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY AND HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
RESULT IN HEADLINES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AGAIN BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS LET DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/30TH...DESPITE PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED
BETWEEN 040-050...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE....ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1877...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 86 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST WHICH STANDS
138 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  62  74  64 / 0 -  -  -
MARATHON  71  62  73  64 / 0 -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.............APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 290835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300
AM ILLUSTRATE THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS NOW
MIGRATED EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ALIGNED NEAR 70 DEGREES
WEST. UPSTREAM OF THAT...A MOSTLY ZONAL/WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC MID AND
UPPER FLOW IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR IOWA AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AND
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...THE AXIS OF A
NEAR 1030 MB COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NEW YORK STATE
SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. AS SUCH...LAST EVENINGS 00Z
SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A FRESH AND VERY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
FROM 1000 FEET AGL UP TO 500 MB...BECOMING NORTHWEST ABOVE
THAT...WITH A 3 DEGREE C INVERSION FROM ABOUT 950 MB TO 850 MB...WITH
TOTAL PWAT AT ONLY .38 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE KEYS AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE LEADING NORTH NORTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY EDGE OF A THINLY VEILED STRATOCU SHIELD
POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
COMFORTABLE 40S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF...FLORIDA
BAY...AND ARE REGISTERING 10 METER NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
BECOMES MAINLY ZONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE WEEKEND. VERY DRY
AIR CONTINUES ALOFT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NW CANADA DOES
CARVE OUT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONCISE IT REACHES
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...BUT WITH NOW
IMPACT AT KEYS LATITUDE. ONLY JUST A FEW WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.

THE NEAR 1030 MB SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABORAD THIS
MORNING SLIDES EASTWARD. LOCALLY...THE MSLP GRADIENT LOOSENS AS A
WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SOUTH
BUT JUST REMAINS A 1020-1023 MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER 1035 HIGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN COMBO WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
RESULTS IN ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA
AND ACROSS THE KEYS...WIND AN ASSOCIATED SURGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...BEFORE SLIDING INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DARTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND THEN DEEPENS OFFSHORE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE NEXT FRONT NEAR THE KEYS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

BOTH THE LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF  AND GFS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN VERY DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASE PWAT TO BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...SO HAVE JUST INSERTED A DIME POP IN THE GRIDS
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY MORNING...AND REMOVED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE INDICATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE KEYS REMAIN IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AT 500 MB. BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE AMPLE MOISTURE IN 1000-700 MB LAYER WITH COLD
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS THRU THIS TIME. GIVEN
LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATION OF PWAT BETWEEN 1.00
AND 1.50 INCHES UNTIL THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR NIGHT...HAVE BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP DIME POPS IN THE GRIDS THRU
THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...HI AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JANUARY WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY. HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING
ACROSS ALL WATERS UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL LET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY AND HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
RESULT IN HEADLINES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AGAIN BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS LET DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/30TH...DESPITE PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED
BETWEEN 040-050...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE....ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1877...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 86 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST WHICH STANDS
138 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  62  74  64 / 0 -  -  -
MARATHON  71  62  73  64 / 0 -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.............APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 290835
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...700-200 MB...LATEST IR
IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH AVAILABLE MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF 300
AM ILLUSTRATE THE AXIS OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS NOW
MIGRATED EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND ALIGNED NEAR 70 DEGREES
WEST. UPSTREAM OF THAT...A MOSTLY ZONAL/WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC MID AND
UPPER FLOW IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR IOWA AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AND
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700 MB...THE AXIS OF A
NEAR 1030 MB COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS ORIENTED FROM NEW YORK STATE
SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT. AS SUCH...LAST EVENINGS 00Z
SOUNDING AT KEY WEST ILLUSTRATED A FRESH AND VERY DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
FROM 1000 FEET AGL UP TO 500 MB...BECOMING NORTHWEST ABOVE
THAT...WITH A 3 DEGREE C INVERSION FROM ABOUT 950 MB TO 850 MB...WITH
TOTAL PWAT AT ONLY .38 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 300 AM...SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE KEYS AND
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH THE LEADING NORTH NORTHEAST TO
SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY EDGE OF A THINLY VEILED STRATOCU SHIELD
POSITIONED ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ISLAND CHAIN ARE IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
COMFORTABLE 40S. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF...FLORIDA
BAY...AND ARE REGISTERING 10 METER NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...MID AND UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW
BECOMES MAINLY ZONAL BY THIS AFTERNOON THRU THE WEEKEND. VERY DRY
AIR CONTINUES ALOFT. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE NOW OVER NW CANADA DOES
CARVE OUT THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONCISE IT REACHES
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...BUT WITH NOW
IMPACT AT KEYS LATITUDE. ONLY JUST A FEW WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.

THE NEAR 1030 MB SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABORAD THIS
MORNING SLIDES EASTWARD. LOCALLY...THE MSLP GRADIENT LOOSENS AS A
WEAKER SURFACE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON MOVES SOUTH
BUT JUST REMAINS A 1020-1023 MB RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER 1035 HIGH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST IN COMBO WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
RESULTS IN ANOTHER DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING DOWN THE PENINSULA
AND ACROSS THE KEYS...WIND AN ASSOCIATED SURGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...BEFORE SLIDING INTO THE
ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DARTS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST AND THEN DEEPENS OFFSHORE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING
THE NEXT FRONT NEAR THE KEYS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

BOTH THE LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF  AND GFS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ILLUSTRATE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAIN VERY DRY THRU FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
INCREASE PWAT TO BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.25 SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME SUGGESTION OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY MORNING...SO HAVE JUST INSERTED A DIME POP IN THE GRIDS
SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY MORNING...AND REMOVED POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE INDICATED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE KEYS REMAIN IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EXTENDED...TUESDAY THRU THURSDAY...MID AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
PATTER REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO AT 500 MB. BOTH LATEST AVAILABLE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE AMPLE MOISTURE IN 1000-700 MB LAYER WITH COLD
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE KEYS THRU THIS TIME. GIVEN
LATEST AVAILABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATION OF PWAT BETWEEN 1.00
AND 1.50 INCHES UNTIL THE NEXT POSSIBLE FRONT ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR NIGHT...HAVE BEEN INCLINED TO KEEP DIME POPS IN THE GRIDS THRU
THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...HI AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR LATE JANUARY WITH ELEVATED
HUMIDITY. HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 70.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THIS MORNING
ACROSS ALL WATERS UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL LET DOWN THIS AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY AND HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AGAIN DUE TO THE NEXT NORTHERLY SURGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY BUT
THE PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THESE CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHWESTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL
RESULT IN HEADLINES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AGAIN BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS LET DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...UNTIL 00Z/30TH...DESPITE PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS BASED
BETWEEN 040-050...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10 WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS NEAR 15 KNOTS CAN BE ANTICIPATED AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE....ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1877...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WAS 86 DEGREES. THIS
SET THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST WHICH STANDS
138 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  72  62  74  64 / 0 -  -  -
MARATHON  71  62  73  64 / 0 -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.............APA

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KTBW 290828
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
328 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE LARGER
SHORTWAVE IS CENTERED EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST AND IS PULLING A
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND IS HELPING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PIVOT SOUTH TOWARDS FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
EAST FLOW THIS MORNING INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LACKING ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT...LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...DEW POINTS WILL BE REBOUNDING...SO FOG WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN NEAR TO A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW NORMAL.

.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE CUTOFF LOW OVER OLD MEXICO MOVING EAST AND OPENING UP
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING SATURDAY AND THEN OUT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST SATURDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND CUTOFF LOW MOVE EASTWARD WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND HOW FAST THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST. THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN STALL THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING EAST QUICKER HELPING TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF KEEPING SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE USED
A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HOPEFULLY LATER MODEL RUNS
WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IN PUSHING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN NEXT TUESDAY COULD END UP
BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF
ENGLEWOOD WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE TURNING WINDS ONSHORE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS PICKING UP
TO AROUND CAUTIONARY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY...BUT A NOCTURNAL EASTERLY SURGE WILL BRING WIND
SPEEDS BACK ABOVE 15 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  53  70  48 /   0   0  10   0
FMY  73  52  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  70  51  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  69  50  69  48 /   0   0  10   0
BKV  69  43  69  40 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  67  55  68  53 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     CITRUS-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE





000
FXUS62 KTBW 290828
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
328 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...
MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE LARGER
SHORTWAVE IS CENTERED EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST AND IS PULLING A
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A SECOND
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND IS HELPING TO DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PIVOT SOUTH TOWARDS FLORIDA. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
EAST FLOW THIS MORNING INTERRUPTED BY A WEAK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LACKING ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
TONIGHT...LOWS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THIS
MORNING...GENERALLY NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...DEW POINTS WILL BE REBOUNDING...SO FOG WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ON
FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A FEW MORE CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL RUN NEAR TO A
DEGREE OR SO BELOW NORMAL.

.MID/LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH DIFFERENCES WITH
RESPECT TO THE CUTOFF LOW OVER OLD MEXICO MOVING EAST AND OPENING UP
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING SATURDAY AND THEN OUT INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TO EAST SATURDAY AND THEN SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATLANTIC MOISTURE LEADING TO SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES.

EARLY NEXT WEEK IS WHERE THINGS GET INTERESTING AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AND CUTOFF LOW MOVE EASTWARD WITH A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND HOW FAST THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST. THE GFS
PUSHES THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MORE MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION RETURN
WEDNESDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES EAST. MEANWHILE THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN STALL THE FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
THE CUTOFF LOW MOVING EAST QUICKER HELPING TO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF KEEPING SOME CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW HAVE USED
A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND HOPEFULLY LATER MODEL RUNS
WILL COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...IF THE GFS IS CORRECT IN PUSHING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN NEXT TUESDAY COULD END UP
BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR BOTH HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST WINDS AROUND EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF
ENGLEWOOD WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. EAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...WITH AN AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE TURNING WINDS ONSHORE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS ON FRIDAY...WITH NORTH WINDS PICKING UP
TO AROUND CAUTIONARY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BRIEFLY
IMPROVE ON SATURDAY...BUT A NOCTURNAL EASTERLY SURGE WILL BRING WIND
SPEEDS BACK ABOVE 15 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL HOLD IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. PATCHY FOG
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  53  70  48 /   0   0  10   0
FMY  73  52  73  52 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  70  51  71  48 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  69  50  69  48 /   0   0  10   0
BKV  69  43  69  40 /   0   0  10   0
SPG  67  55  68  53 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
     CITRUS-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND LEVY.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
LONG TERM...69/CLOSE
DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KMFL 290749
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES...
...FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S EXCEPT MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WORK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING BACK TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AT
LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6
FEET IN THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN
SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE 6 FEET SEAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY OVER
THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY OVER THE
EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
TO A LEAST A MODERATE THREAT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS AS THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND THE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 40S
TO 50S AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  56  74  57 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  58  75  59 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            73  57  76  58 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  52  72  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290749
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES...
...FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S EXCEPT MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WORK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING BACK TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AT
LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6
FEET IN THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN
SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE 6 FEET SEAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY OVER
THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY OVER THE
EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
TO A LEAST A MODERATE THREAT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS AS THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND THE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 40S
TO 50S AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  56  74  57 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  58  75  59 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            73  57  76  58 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  52  72  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290749
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES...
...FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S EXCEPT MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WORK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING BACK TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AT
LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6
FEET IN THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN
SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE 6 FEET SEAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY OVER
THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY OVER THE
EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
TO A LEAST A MODERATE THREAT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS AS THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND THE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 40S
TO 50S AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  56  74  57 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  58  75  59 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            73  57  76  58 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  52  72  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290749
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
249 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

...INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND
FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES...
...FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND EAST COAST METRO AREAS...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER WITH HIGHS TODAY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S EXCEPT MID 50S TO NEAR 60 EAST
COAST METRO AREAS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO
TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TO MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL BE A MOSTLY DRY FRONT EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALLOW
FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WORK
INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THEREFORE...THE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
STILL SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTH
WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING OVER
THE TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BACKING MORE
NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING BACK TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO AT
LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS
TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND BELOW 6
FEET IN THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...AN
SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO THE
POSSIBLE 6 FEET SEAS.

THERE WILL ALSO BE AN MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY OVER
THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LOWER ON FRIDAY OVER THE
EAST COAST BEACHES DUE TO THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND LIGHTER WIND
SPEEDS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS SHOULD INCREASE BACK
TO A LEAST A MODERATE THREAT THIS WEEKEND FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS AS THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL DOWN INTO THE MID 30S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
20 FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH AND THE ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT (ERC) WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 20S FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE INCREASING INTO THE 40S
TO 50S AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKS INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  56  74  57 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  58  75  59 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            73  57  76  58 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  52  72  54 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KJAX 290735
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
HAS RESULTED IN A LIGHT FREEZE WITH FROST INLAND THIS MORNING.
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SW WITH SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING
SOUTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE GA LATE TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF
SHOWING PRECIP DRYING UP AS FRONT PUSHES INTO NE FL FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO UPPER TROUGH ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NORTH. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ON SATURDAY BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE EACH DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW SETS OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING
RAPIDLY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. LOOKING FOR 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE
TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT 50 TO 60 PERCENT
POPS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWEEPING TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY EVENING. A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY...THE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING TO THE TIDEWATER VIRGINIA AREA. THE
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BECOMES ONSHORE SETTING
UP A BRIEF NORTHEASTER SITUATION. SHOWERS BREAK OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMPINGE ON THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AS A
COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT
PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS
TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
OVERRUNNING SETTING UP DURING THE DAY.

THURSDAY...THE SHORT WAVE MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE AREA OF
OVERRUNNING OVER THE GULF OVER MEXICO MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ANOTHER
NORTHEASTER SITUATION SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL VEER TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND SW THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. STRATOCU FROM THE
ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
PRODUCING SCT CLOUDS 030-040.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WHICH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE FRI INTO SAT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  45  57  33 /   0  20   0   0
SSI  57  48  57  40 /   0  10  10   0
JAX  63  47  61  39 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  62  49  62  46 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  66  45  64  38 /   0  10  10   0
OCF  67  46  66  40 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MARION-PUTNAM-ST.
     JOHNS.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/SANDRIK/



000
FXUS62 KJAX 290735
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
HAS RESULTED IN A LIGHT FREEZE WITH FROST INLAND THIS MORNING.
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SW WITH SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING
SOUTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE GA LATE TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF
SHOWING PRECIP DRYING UP AS FRONT PUSHES INTO NE FL FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO UPPER TROUGH ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NORTH. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ON SATURDAY BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE EACH DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW SETS OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING
RAPIDLY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. LOOKING FOR 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE
TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT 50 TO 60 PERCENT
POPS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWEEPING TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY EVENING. A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY...THE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING TO THE TIDEWATER VIRGINIA AREA. THE
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BECOMES ONSHORE SETTING
UP A BRIEF NORTHEASTER SITUATION. SHOWERS BREAK OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMPINGE ON THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AS A
COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT
PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS
TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
OVERRUNNING SETTING UP DURING THE DAY.

THURSDAY...THE SHORT WAVE MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE AREA OF
OVERRUNNING OVER THE GULF OVER MEXICO MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ANOTHER
NORTHEASTER SITUATION SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL VEER TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND SW THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. STRATOCU FROM THE
ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
PRODUCING SCT CLOUDS 030-040.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WHICH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE FRI INTO SAT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  45  57  33 /   0  20   0   0
SSI  57  48  57  40 /   0  10  10   0
JAX  63  47  61  39 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  62  49  62  46 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  66  45  64  38 /   0  10  10   0
OCF  67  46  66  40 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MARION-PUTNAM-ST.
     JOHNS.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/SANDRIK/



000
FXUS62 KJAX 290735
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
HAS RESULTED IN A LIGHT FREEZE WITH FROST INLAND THIS MORNING.
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SW WITH SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING
SOUTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE GA LATE TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF
SHOWING PRECIP DRYING UP AS FRONT PUSHES INTO NE FL FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO UPPER TROUGH ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NORTH. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ON SATURDAY BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE EACH DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW SETS OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING
RAPIDLY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. LOOKING FOR 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE
TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT 50 TO 60 PERCENT
POPS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWEEPING TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY EVENING. A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY...THE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING TO THE TIDEWATER VIRGINIA AREA. THE
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BECOMES ONSHORE SETTING
UP A BRIEF NORTHEASTER SITUATION. SHOWERS BREAK OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMPINGE ON THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AS A
COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT
PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS
TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
OVERRUNNING SETTING UP DURING THE DAY.

THURSDAY...THE SHORT WAVE MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE AREA OF
OVERRUNNING OVER THE GULF OVER MEXICO MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ANOTHER
NORTHEASTER SITUATION SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL VEER TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND SW THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. STRATOCU FROM THE
ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
PRODUCING SCT CLOUDS 030-040.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WHICH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE FRI INTO SAT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  45  57  33 /   0  20   0   0
SSI  57  48  57  40 /   0  10  10   0
JAX  63  47  61  39 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  62  49  62  46 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  66  45  64  38 /   0  10  10   0
OCF  67  46  66  40 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MARION-PUTNAM-ST.
     JOHNS.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/SANDRIK/



000
FXUS62 KJAX 290735
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015


.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA
HAS RESULTED IN A LIGHT FREEZE WITH FROST INLAND THIS MORNING.
TODAY WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY AS CIRRUS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE ATLANTIC
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SW WITH SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTING
SOUTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SE GA LATE TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TREND OF
SHOWING PRECIP DRYING UP AS FRONT PUSHES INTO NE FL FRIDAY MORNING
DUE TO UPPER TROUGH ENERGY REMAINING TO THE NORTH. ONSHORE WINDS
WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ON SATURDAY BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE EACH DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

.EXTENDED (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW SETS OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING
RAPIDLY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY. LOOKING FOR 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING TO THE VIRGINIA CAPES. THE
TRAILING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EXPECT 50 TO 60 PERCENT
POPS.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM SWEEPING TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY EVENING. A 1030 MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL RIDGE OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

TUESDAY...THE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES BECOMES MORE ZONAL
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVING TO THE TIDEWATER VIRGINIA AREA. THE
FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BECOMES ONSHORE SETTING
UP A BRIEF NORTHEASTER SITUATION. SHOWERS BREAK OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND IMPINGE ON THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL AREAS AS A
COASTAL TROUGH SETS UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT
PLAINS WITH A SURFACE LOW BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS
TO WORK ITS WAY BACK NORTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME
OVERRUNNING SETTING UP DURING THE DAY.

THURSDAY...THE SHORT WAVE MOVE TO THE EAST COAST WITH THE AREA OF
OVERRUNNING OVER THE GULF OVER MEXICO MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND ANOTHER
NORTHEASTER SITUATION SETTING UP FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND WILL VEER TO THE SE THIS AFTERNOON AND SW THIS
EVENING AS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. STRATOCU FROM THE
ATLANTIC WILL ADVECT INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME ONSHORE
PRODUCING SCT CLOUDS 030-040.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING WINDS AND SEAS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS FRIDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WHICH WILL
INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE FRI INTO SAT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK TODAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  61  45  57  33 /   0  20   0   0
SSI  57  48  57  40 /   0  10  10   0
JAX  63  47  61  39 /   0  10  10   0
SGJ  62  49  62  46 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  66  45  64  38 /   0  10  10   0
OCF  67  46  66  40 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MARION-PUTNAM-ST.
     JOHNS.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-
     BRADFORD-CLAY-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-NASSAU-
     SUWANNEE-UNION.

GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/SANDRIK/



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities