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000
FXUS62 KTAE 181542
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1042 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Band of high clouds across the Big Bend and south central Georgia
this morning is keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler than
forecast. These clouds are expected to thin out during the
afternoon, which should still allow for temperatures to reach the
lower to mid 60s for most locations. Other than minor temperature
adjustments, no changes are needed to the forecast for today, with
dry conditions and very light winds in place.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to prevail through the
TAF period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [419 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.


.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.


.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.


.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 181542
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1042 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Band of high clouds across the Big Bend and south central Georgia
this morning is keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler than
forecast. These clouds are expected to thin out during the
afternoon, which should still allow for temperatures to reach the
lower to mid 60s for most locations. Other than minor temperature
adjustments, no changes are needed to the forecast for today, with
dry conditions and very light winds in place.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to prevail through the
TAF period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [419 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.


.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.


.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.


.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







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000
FXUS62 KKEY 181450
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
950 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A LIGHT BREEZE VARYING FROM NORTH TO
EAST...TEMPERATURES IN THE KEYS ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 70S.
KBYX IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES.

THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS JUST A TAD MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5000
FEET THANKS TO BREEZES TURNING MORE TO THE EAST IN THAT LAYER ABOVE
THE SURFACE. BUT WE STILL REMAIN QUITE STABLE UNDER A VERY DRY
CAPPING MID LAYER. TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ARE RUNNING ABOUT A
DEGREE ABOVE THE READINGS 24 HOURS AGO. MAY ADD A DEGREE TO OUR
GRIDDED DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE MAX READINGS ACHIEVED
YESTERDAY. BUT THIS DOES NOT AFFECT THE ADVERTISED HIGHS FOR TODAY FROM
OUR EARLIER ISSUANCE. A ZONE UPDATE WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN A SHORT
WHILE JUST TO REMOVE SOME TRANSITIONAL WIND WORDING FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM VERY SMALL WORDING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INITIAL WIND
DIRECTIONS...NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE INSERTED TO THE UPCOMING
COASTAL WATERS UPDATE. RECREATIONAL BOATERS CAN EXPECT VERY AGREEABLE
CONDITIONS IN MOST WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS IN THE NEAR
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS MAY
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1929...1.90 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM RAINFALL FOR KEY
WEST ON DECEMBER 18TH...WHICH STANDS 85 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 181450
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
950 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A LIGHT BREEZE VARYING FROM NORTH TO
EAST...TEMPERATURES IN THE KEYS ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE LOWER 70S.
KBYX IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES.

THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS JUST A TAD MORE MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST 5000
FEET THANKS TO BREEZES TURNING MORE TO THE EAST IN THAT LAYER ABOVE
THE SURFACE. BUT WE STILL REMAIN QUITE STABLE UNDER A VERY DRY
CAPPING MID LAYER. TEMPERATURES AT THIS HOUR ARE RUNNING ABOUT A
DEGREE ABOVE THE READINGS 24 HOURS AGO. MAY ADD A DEGREE TO OUR
GRIDDED DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE MAX READINGS ACHIEVED
YESTERDAY. BUT THIS DOES NOT AFFECT THE ADVERTISED HIGHS FOR TODAY FROM
OUR EARLIER ISSUANCE. A ZONE UPDATE WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN A SHORT
WHILE JUST TO REMOVE SOME TRANSITIONAL WIND WORDING FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM VERY SMALL WORDING ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INITIAL WIND
DIRECTIONS...NO OTHER CHANGES WILL BE INSERTED TO THE UPCOMING
COASTAL WATERS UPDATE. RECREATIONAL BOATERS CAN EXPECT VERY AGREEABLE
CONDITIONS IN MOST WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS IN THE NEAR
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH THE KEY
WEST INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS MAY
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1929...1.90 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM RAINFALL FOR KEY
WEST ON DECEMBER 18TH...WHICH STANDS 85 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......BWC

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 181409
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. FEW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GENTLE NW BREEZE AOB 10 KTS.
SEAS 1 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT
DISPERSION TO POOR-FAIR.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/SPRATT






000
FXUS62 KMLB 181409
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. FEW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GENTLE NW BREEZE AOB 10 KTS.
SEAS 1 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT
DISPERSION TO POOR-FAIR.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/SPRATT





000
FXUS62 KMLB 181409
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. FEW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GENTLE NW BREEZE AOB 10 KTS.
SEAS 1 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT
DISPERSION TO POOR-FAIR.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/SPRATT





000
FXUS62 KMLB 181409
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER 70S EXPECTED FURTHER
SOUTHWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. FEW MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. GENTLE NW BREEZE AOB 10 KTS.
SEAS 1 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN
BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT
DISPERSION TO POOR-FAIR.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/SPRATT





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 181402
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
902 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE STRAITS LATER TODAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY...WHILE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
WILL PROVIDE INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST TO AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ONGOING
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO MORNING UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INTERVALS OF
HIGH CLOUDS AOA 200 EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP
AFTER 09Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5
KNOTS AGAIN AFTER 02Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...ARRIVING IN THE
WATERS LATER THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO
INCREASE AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND/S FRONTAL
SYSTEM. NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON





000
FXUS62 KTBW 181402
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
902 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE STRAITS LATER TODAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY...WHILE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
WILL PROVIDE INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST TO AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ONGOING
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO MORNING UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INTERVALS OF
HIGH CLOUDS AOA 200 EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP
AFTER 09Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5
KNOTS AGAIN AFTER 02Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...ARRIVING IN THE
WATERS LATER THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO
INCREASE AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND/S FRONTAL
SYSTEM. NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON






000
FXUS62 KTBW 181402
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
902 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE STRAITS LATER TODAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY...WHILE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
WILL PROVIDE INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST TO AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ONGOING
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO MORNING UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INTERVALS OF
HIGH CLOUDS AOA 200 EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP
AFTER 09Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5
KNOTS AGAIN AFTER 02Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...ARRIVING IN THE
WATERS LATER THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO
INCREASE AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND/S FRONTAL
SYSTEM. NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON





000
FXUS62 KTBW 181402
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
902 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL WASH OUT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE STRAITS LATER TODAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN PLEASANT DRY WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THE REST OF TODAY...WHILE A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
WILL PROVIDE INTERVALS OF HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST TO AROUND 70 TO THE LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ONGOING
FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE WITH NO MORNING UPDATE REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH INTERVALS OF
HIGH CLOUDS AOA 200 EXPECTED. MAY SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBYS DEVELOP
AFTER 09Z EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPS...BUT
OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 15Z...BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 5
KNOTS AGAIN AFTER 02Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND AN EXITING COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF AND
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK...ARRIVING IN THE
WATERS LATER THIS WEEKEND. MARINERS CAN EXPECT WINDS AND WAVES TO
INCREASE AS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AHEAD OF THIS WEEKEND/S FRONTAL
SYSTEM. NO CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE LATE MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT...03/PAXTON





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 181400 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            79  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 181400 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            79  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181400 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            79  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 181400 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            79  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 181339
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES CROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.
THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THIN OUT SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL IMPULSES. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST NOT EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WALSH






000
FXUS62 KJAX 181339
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES CROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.
THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THIN OUT SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL IMPULSES. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST NOT EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WALSH






000
FXUS62 KJAX 181339
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES CROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.
THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THIN OUT SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL IMPULSES. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST NOT EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KJAX 181339
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
839 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED/BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES CROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET.
THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY THIN OUT SOME FOR THIS AFTN AS THE REGION
WILL BE IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL IMPULSES. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST NOT EXPECTED...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WALSH







000
FXUS62 KKEY 181150
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
650 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
...18/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
OSCILLATE BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST EARLY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IS LIKELY BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHAT WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT AFTER THIS INCREASE...EAST-NORTHEAST IS MOST LIKELY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KKEY 181150
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
650 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
...18/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
OSCILLATE BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST EARLY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IS LIKELY BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHAT WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT AFTER THIS INCREASE...EAST-NORTHEAST IS MOST LIKELY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KKEY 181150
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
650 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
...18/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
OSCILLATE BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST EARLY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IS LIKELY BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHAT WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT AFTER THIS INCREASE...EAST-NORTHEAST IS MOST LIKELY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KKEY 181150
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
650 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
...18/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EYW AND MTH
TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL
OSCILLATE BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST EARLY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS IS LIKELY BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHAT WIND DIRECTION WILL BE MOST
PREVALENT AFTER THIS INCREASE...EAST-NORTHEAST IS MOST LIKELY.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KMFL 181043
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181043
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181043
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181043
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMLB 180938 AAA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
438 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
SKIES HEAVE CLEARED OUT...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...AS THE FIRST SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS PASSED WELL E-SE OF CENTRAL FL. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL OFF A BIT MORE...AND AS A RESULT SOME SHALLOW MIST HAS
FORMED ACROSS WESTERN FL. MORE CI/CS IS POISED TO MOVE BACK OVHD
BEFORE SUNRISE...THOUGH IR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SHOULD REMAIN
THIN. GIVEN CURRENT T/TD SPREADS OF 2-4F DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LOCALIZED SHALLOW MIST/GROUND FOG TO FORM.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...OWING IN PART TO HIGH CLOUDS
DIMMING THE SUN AS THEY STREAM OVHD. MAXES IN THE U60S TO L70S WITH
MINS IN THE 40S.

FRI-SAT...
A 100-110KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PUSH AN H100-H70 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GOMEX EWD ACRS THE BAHAMA BANK WHILE PULLING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE
RIDGE REMAINS LOW E OF THE MS RIVER WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BLO
50PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 30PCT.

MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED W OF THE MS RIVER WITH BOTH H100-H70 RH
VALUES AS HIGH AS 90PCT OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...H85-H50 VALUES
AOA 70PCT. NOTEWORTHY H85-H50 VORT MAXES WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AS WELL. HOWEVER... THESE WX FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE STRONG AND DEEP ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN TIER STATES THAT
WILL CARRY THEIR BULK ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH RATHER THAN INTO THE
GOMEX. INDEED...THE 18/00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS
OF DLVPG A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY...INSTEAD NOW
INDICATING A WEAK OPEN WAVE AS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FEATURE FOR THE
FRONT.

WITH THE CURRENT GOMEX RIDGE EXPECTED TO RELOCATE OVER THE SW ATLC
AND WEAK SWD MOTION ON THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO KEEP IT
FROM LAYING DOWN AND OVER THE PANHANDLE. PTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIGHT NE
WINDS ON FRI AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE ERN SEABOARD...VEERING TO
THE S/SE ON SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. SEASONABLE MAX
TEMPS FRI DAYTIME MAXES IN THE L/M70S...MIN TEMPS ARND 5F ABV  AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE STATE. SAT/SAT
NIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ARND 5F ABV AVG AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
S/SE. WILL INTRODUCE SLGT CHC POPS INTO THE FCST N OF I-4 SAT
NIGHT...BUT ANY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINOR.

SUN-WED...
AN UNSETTLED WX PATTERN IN STORE THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
BROAD SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY
ACRS THE CONUS. EXTENDED MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT A 160KT
H30-H20 JET STREAK OVER THE PACIFIC WILL PUSH INTO THE PAC NW AND
FEED ITS ENERGY DOWN STREAM TO THE LIFTING JET OVER THE SE CONUS.
HOWEVER... BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS MAINTAIN A LIFTING ORIENTATION WITH
THE SRN JET WHILE HOLDING THE RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC FIRMLY IN
PLACE. BOTH OF THESE WX FEATURES WILL PREVENT THE FRONT FROM MAKING
A CLEAN OR RAPID PASS THRU CENTRAL FL...RESULTING IN AN EXTENDED PD
OF PRECIP AS DEEP MOISTURE POOLS WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROF.

INTERACTION BTWN THE ATLC RIDGE AND THE STALLED FRONTAL TROF WILL
GENERATE A DEEP SW FLOW THRU THE COLUMN...RESULTING IN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT THAT USUALLY GENERATES MORE STRATIFORM THAN
CONVECTIVE RAIN. HOWEVER...AS THE FRONTAL TROF DRIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA...IT WILL ERODE THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC RIDGE
AND BREAK UP THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT CURRENTLY
DOMINATES THE H100-H70 LYR ACRS CENTRAL/NORTH FL. TEH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES WILL COMBINE WITH H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C THAT COULD
TRIGGER ISOLD TSRAS.

WILL KEEP PRECIP MENTIONED IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT AOB 50PCT. A
PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS ABV
AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP OFFSET THIS EFFECT
IN THE DAYTIME. AFTN MAXES IN THE L/M70S N OF I-4...M/U70S TO THE S.
MIN TEMPS U50S/L6S0 INTERIOR AND L/M60S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. COULD SEE A LITTLE PATCHY MIFG 10Z-13Z...BUT WOULD BE TRANSIENT
AND QUITE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A GENTLE NW-N BREEZE
AOB 10KT AND SEAS 1FT NEARSHORE/2FT OFFSHORE

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GOMEX TO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD. AS IT
DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY THRU THE DAY...TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE S/SE THRU
DAYBREAK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...UP TO 3FT IN THE
GULF STREAM.

SAT-MON...A WEAK H100-H70 SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND PUSH ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SAT...DRAGGING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEKEND...BCMG S/SW
GENTLE TO MODERATE ON MON AS A REINFORCING TROF PUSHES INTO THE
GOMEX REGION AND NUDGES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN PENINSULA. SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT DISPERSION TO
POOR-FAIR TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST AHPS DATA SHOWS THE GAGE ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER
ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS DROPPED TO 6.45FT...BELOW THE ACTION
STAGE OF 6.50FT. DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ENSURE A
CONTINUED SLOW FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  47  69  54 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  70  48  72  53 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  72  57 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  71  45  72  56 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  67  46  70  52 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  69  48  71  53 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  70  49  71  54 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  70  45  73  57 /   0   0  10   0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW







000
FXUS62 KTAE 180919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A Ridge of Sfc high pressure will continue to hang on across the
region today as an area of low pressure slowly gets more organized
near the north central Gulf Coast. While this will be our primary
weather maker for Friday, it will do little more than spread out
bands of Cirrus across our skies today, just dimming the abundant
sunshine from time time. High temps are expected to run very close
to climatology, with readings ranging from the lower to middle 60s
across the board, generally from north to south.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to easily prevail through
the Taf period.

&&

.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 180919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A Ridge of Sfc high pressure will continue to hang on across the
region today as an area of low pressure slowly gets more organized
near the north central Gulf Coast. While this will be our primary
weather maker for Friday, it will do little more than spread out
bands of Cirrus across our skies today, just dimming the abundant
sunshine from time time. High temps are expected to run very close
to climatology, with readings ranging from the lower to middle 60s
across the board, generally from north to south.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to easily prevail through
the Taf period.

&&

.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 180919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A Ridge of Sfc high pressure will continue to hang on across the
region today as an area of low pressure slowly gets more organized
near the north central Gulf Coast. While this will be our primary
weather maker for Friday, it will do little more than spread out
bands of Cirrus across our skies today, just dimming the abundant
sunshine from time time. High temps are expected to run very close
to climatology, with readings ranging from the lower to middle 60s
across the board, generally from north to south.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to easily prevail through
the Taf period.

&&

.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 180919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A Ridge of Sfc high pressure will continue to hang on across the
region today as an area of low pressure slowly gets more organized
near the north central Gulf Coast. While this will be our primary
weather maker for Friday, it will do little more than spread out
bands of Cirrus across our skies today, just dimming the abundant
sunshine from time time. High temps are expected to run very close
to climatology, with readings ranging from the lower to middle 60s
across the board, generally from north to south.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to easily prevail through
the Taf period.

&&

.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.

&&

.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.

&&

.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KJAX 180910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014


.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
WRN U.S. WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS TX TO THE TN
VALLEY. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND JET HELPING TO SPREADING AN OCNL
BROKEN-OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH PRES CENTRAL PLAINS
TO CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH LIGHT W TO NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER INLAND SE
GA. PATCHY FOG NOTED OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY PER SFC OBS AS PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MASKING ANY LOW CLOUD OR FOG DETECTION. FOG IS ALSO
INDICATED IN LATEST HRRR AND NARRE FCST GUIDANCE FROM AROUND LIVE
OAK TO OCALA. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING
FCST...AND VSBY MAY BE BELOW 1 MI AT TIMES.

.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY...ONE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
DE-AMPLIFYING. WE ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST OF THE HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THINNING OF
CLOUDS IN THE AFTN FROM THE NW TO SE. SFC HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR PREVAILING LIGHT NW TO N WINDS. MAX TEMPS TODAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE BUT PERHAPS A TOUCH BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. TONIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LOCATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER CONUS
GENERATING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN GULF. THIS DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO 3/4
OF AN INCH. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
READINGS TO THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. COOLEST
READINGS WELL INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LOCAL TOOLS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
DON`T SUPPORT MENTION OF FOG ATTM.

FRIDAY...STRONG MID AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND ASSOCD SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LA COAST.
SFC HIGH PRES DUE N OF THE AREA WILL OOZE EWD ALLOWING WINDS TO
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NELY BUT LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. THE TAIL END OF A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF SE GA BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WX
NOTED BESIDES THE WIND SHIFT WITH SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS AND
INCREASED DEWPOINTS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INCREASING DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM THE W AND NW. A SLIGHT
CHANCE AROUND 20 PRCT IS INDICATED OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES AS LIFT
INCREASES IN ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER
PERIOD COMES TO A CLOSE AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEX AND TRAVEL EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES...AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT...DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY ACROSS SE GA CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING TO
THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL GA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER NE
FL WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL MODERATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS SE GA IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH NE FL WARMING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.


.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....LONG TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE AS IT RUNS UP OVER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT WPC
QPF FORECASTS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UP
TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING
MECHANISMS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIATES ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPS BEGIN TO DECREASE. MIN TEMPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR BUT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ.
OCNL CIGS AOA 20 KFT THROUGH 06Z FRI. LIGHT NW TO W WINDS...THOUGH A
WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT NLY WINDS AND LOW SEA HEIGHTS. NELY FLOW LIGHT ON FRIDAY AND
SHIFTS TO MORE SLY ON SAT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W BY
TUESDAY. STILL CAN`T TOTALLY DISCOUNT A CHANCE OF SEA FOG EARLY SAT
MORNING AND/OR SAT EVENING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS TO NE
AND SE BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/SHASHY/







000
FXUS62 KJAX 180910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014


.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
WRN U.S. WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS TX TO THE TN
VALLEY. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND JET HELPING TO SPREADING AN OCNL
BROKEN-OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH PRES CENTRAL PLAINS
TO CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH LIGHT W TO NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER INLAND SE
GA. PATCHY FOG NOTED OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY PER SFC OBS AS PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MASKING ANY LOW CLOUD OR FOG DETECTION. FOG IS ALSO
INDICATED IN LATEST HRRR AND NARRE FCST GUIDANCE FROM AROUND LIVE
OAK TO OCALA. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING
FCST...AND VSBY MAY BE BELOW 1 MI AT TIMES.

.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY...ONE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
DE-AMPLIFYING. WE ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST OF THE HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THINNING OF
CLOUDS IN THE AFTN FROM THE NW TO SE. SFC HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR PREVAILING LIGHT NW TO N WINDS. MAX TEMPS TODAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE BUT PERHAPS A TOUCH BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. TONIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LOCATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER CONUS
GENERATING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN GULF. THIS DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO 3/4
OF AN INCH. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
READINGS TO THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. COOLEST
READINGS WELL INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LOCAL TOOLS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
DON`T SUPPORT MENTION OF FOG ATTM.

FRIDAY...STRONG MID AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND ASSOCD SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LA COAST.
SFC HIGH PRES DUE N OF THE AREA WILL OOZE EWD ALLOWING WINDS TO
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NELY BUT LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. THE TAIL END OF A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF SE GA BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WX
NOTED BESIDES THE WIND SHIFT WITH SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS AND
INCREASED DEWPOINTS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INCREASING DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM THE W AND NW. A SLIGHT
CHANCE AROUND 20 PRCT IS INDICATED OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES AS LIFT
INCREASES IN ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER
PERIOD COMES TO A CLOSE AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEX AND TRAVEL EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES...AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT...DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY ACROSS SE GA CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING TO
THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL GA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER NE
FL WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL MODERATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS SE GA IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH NE FL WARMING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.


.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....LONG TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE AS IT RUNS UP OVER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT WPC
QPF FORECASTS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UP
TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING
MECHANISMS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIATES ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPS BEGIN TO DECREASE. MIN TEMPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR BUT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ.
OCNL CIGS AOA 20 KFT THROUGH 06Z FRI. LIGHT NW TO W WINDS...THOUGH A
WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT NLY WINDS AND LOW SEA HEIGHTS. NELY FLOW LIGHT ON FRIDAY AND
SHIFTS TO MORE SLY ON SAT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W BY
TUESDAY. STILL CAN`T TOTALLY DISCOUNT A CHANCE OF SEA FOG EARLY SAT
MORNING AND/OR SAT EVENING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS TO NE
AND SE BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/SHASHY/






000
FXUS62 KJAX 180910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014


.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
WRN U.S. WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS TX TO THE TN
VALLEY. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND JET HELPING TO SPREADING AN OCNL
BROKEN-OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH PRES CENTRAL PLAINS
TO CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH LIGHT W TO NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER INLAND SE
GA. PATCHY FOG NOTED OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY PER SFC OBS AS PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MASKING ANY LOW CLOUD OR FOG DETECTION. FOG IS ALSO
INDICATED IN LATEST HRRR AND NARRE FCST GUIDANCE FROM AROUND LIVE
OAK TO OCALA. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING
FCST...AND VSBY MAY BE BELOW 1 MI AT TIMES.

.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY...ONE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
DE-AMPLIFYING. WE ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST OF THE HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THINNING OF
CLOUDS IN THE AFTN FROM THE NW TO SE. SFC HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR PREVAILING LIGHT NW TO N WINDS. MAX TEMPS TODAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE BUT PERHAPS A TOUCH BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. TONIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LOCATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER CONUS
GENERATING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN GULF. THIS DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO 3/4
OF AN INCH. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
READINGS TO THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. COOLEST
READINGS WELL INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LOCAL TOOLS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
DON`T SUPPORT MENTION OF FOG ATTM.

FRIDAY...STRONG MID AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND ASSOCD SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LA COAST.
SFC HIGH PRES DUE N OF THE AREA WILL OOZE EWD ALLOWING WINDS TO
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NELY BUT LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. THE TAIL END OF A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF SE GA BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WX
NOTED BESIDES THE WIND SHIFT WITH SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS AND
INCREASED DEWPOINTS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INCREASING DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM THE W AND NW. A SLIGHT
CHANCE AROUND 20 PRCT IS INDICATED OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES AS LIFT
INCREASES IN ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER
PERIOD COMES TO A CLOSE AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEX AND TRAVEL EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES...AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT...DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY ACROSS SE GA CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING TO
THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL GA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER NE
FL WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL MODERATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS SE GA IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH NE FL WARMING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.


.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....LONG TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE AS IT RUNS UP OVER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT WPC
QPF FORECASTS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UP
TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING
MECHANISMS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIATES ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPS BEGIN TO DECREASE. MIN TEMPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR BUT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ.
OCNL CIGS AOA 20 KFT THROUGH 06Z FRI. LIGHT NW TO W WINDS...THOUGH A
WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT NLY WINDS AND LOW SEA HEIGHTS. NELY FLOW LIGHT ON FRIDAY AND
SHIFTS TO MORE SLY ON SAT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W BY
TUESDAY. STILL CAN`T TOTALLY DISCOUNT A CHANCE OF SEA FOG EARLY SAT
MORNING AND/OR SAT EVENING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS TO NE
AND SE BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/SHASHY/







000
FXUS62 KJAX 180910
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
410 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014


.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
WRN U.S. WITH DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED ACROSS TX TO THE TN
VALLEY. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND JET HELPING TO SPREADING AN OCNL
BROKEN-OVERCAST CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD. SFC HIGH PRES CENTRAL PLAINS
TO CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH LIGHT W TO NW FLOW OVER OUR AREA. TEMPS
ARE IN THE 40S MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER INLAND SE
GA. PATCHY FOG NOTED OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY PER SFC OBS AS PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS ARE MASKING ANY LOW CLOUD OR FOG DETECTION. FOG IS ALSO
INDICATED IN LATEST HRRR AND NARRE FCST GUIDANCE FROM AROUND LIVE
OAK TO OCALA. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF FOG INTO THE EARLY MORNING
FCST...AND VSBY MAY BE BELOW 1 MI AT TIMES.

.SHORT TERM...FOR TODAY...ONE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EWD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE
DE-AMPLIFYING. WE ANTICIPATE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION THROUGH FIRST OF THE HALF OF THE DAY...WITH THINNING OF
CLOUDS IN THE AFTN FROM THE NW TO SE. SFC HIGH PRES NW OF THE AREA
WILL ALLOW FOR PREVAILING LIGHT NW TO N WINDS. MAX TEMPS TODAY
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE BUT PERHAPS A TOUCH BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. TONIGHT...A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
LOCATED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWER CONUS
GENERATING SFC CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE WRN GULF. THIS DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO 3/4
OF AN INCH. GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SIMILAR
READINGS TO THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. COOLEST
READINGS WELL INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LOCAL TOOLS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS
DON`T SUPPORT MENTION OF FOG ATTM.

FRIDAY...STRONG MID AND UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MS
RIVER VALLEY AND ASSOCD SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE TOWARD THE LA COAST.
SFC HIGH PRES DUE N OF THE AREA WILL OOZE EWD ALLOWING WINDS TO
SLOWLY TURN TO THE NELY BUT LIGHT WIND SPEEDS. THE TAIL END OF A
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH PARTS OF SE GA BUT LITTLE SENSIBLE WX
NOTED BESIDES THE WIND SHIFT WITH SLIGHT BUMP IN SPEEDS AND
INCREASED DEWPOINTS. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES INCREASING DURING
THE DAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM THE W AND NW. A SLIGHT
CHANCE AROUND 20 PRCT IS INDICATED OVER OUR FAR NW ZONES AS LIFT
INCREASES IN ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. MAX TEMPS AGAIN
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 60S MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE EXTENDED DRY WEATHER
PERIOD COMES TO A CLOSE AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEX AND TRAVEL EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FL PENINSULA.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES...AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT...DURING THE AFTERNOON
SATURDAY ACROSS SE GA CLOSEST TO THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING TO
THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL GA. LOWER PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED OVER NE
FL WITH LESS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL MODERATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS SE GA IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH NE FL WARMING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WITH A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS.


.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....LONG TERM MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE TIMING OF FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE AS IT RUNS UP OVER A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH HAS BECOME MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH LIKELY CHANCES ON MONDAY AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LIFTS
RELATIVELY WARM AIRMASS OVER COOLER AIR. COVERAGE OF PRECIP SHOULD
DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UP THE
ATLANTIC COAST BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SFC LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PULLING MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH CONTINUING TO DEEPEN AND
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND SFC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. CURRENT WPC
QPF FORECASTS SHOWING RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UP
TO 3 INCHES WITH HIGH LEVELS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND PERSISTENT FORCING
MECHANISMS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS IN BEHIND. MILD
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE
60S AND LOW 70S BEFORE COLD AIR ADVECTION INITIATES ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPS BEGIN TO DECREASE. MIN TEMPS WILL FOLLOW SUIT IN THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EACH NIGHT UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR BUT BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE AT VQQ.
OCNL CIGS AOA 20 KFT THROUGH 06Z FRI. LIGHT NW TO W WINDS...THOUGH A
WEAK SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SSI AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT NLY WINDS AND LOW SEA HEIGHTS. NELY FLOW LIGHT ON FRIDAY AND
SHIFTS TO MORE SLY ON SAT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAKING FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF
RAIN. ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W BY
TUESDAY. STILL CAN`T TOTALLY DISCOUNT A CHANCE OF SEA FOG EARLY SAT
MORNING AND/OR SAT EVENING AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE AS FLOW TURNS TO NE
AND SE BUT POTENTIAL SEEMS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ATTM.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  38  64  49 /   0   0  10  30
SSI  61  44  62  52 /   0   0  10  20
JAX  64  41  66  51 /   0   0  10  10
SGJ  64  46  65  55 /   0   0  10  10
GNV  66  40  68  51 /   0   0  10  10
OCF  67  40  70  52 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/SHASHY/






000
FXUS62 KKEY 180905
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
405 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HAS BEEN VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE LOCAL SCALE...AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM NEAR 60F IN SOME MID-ISLAND AREAS TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE FLORIDA
REEF TRACT. THE LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR
VARIETY...WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING
MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSIST ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES
PREVAILING.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A
BENIGN UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND NIL MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY. A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HORIZONTAL ADVECTION OF COLD
OR WARM AIR WILL LEAD TO A SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR
MASS TOWARD THERMAL EQUILIBRIUM WITH THE UNDERLYING ADJACENT OCEAN
AREAS. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TREND OF SLOWLY INCREASING AIR AND
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY ABOUT
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
LACKING. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN LIKELY WILL UNDERGO CHANGES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...OR HEADLINES. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE MAINLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN NORTH
AND EAST. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1880...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  65  76  68 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  76  65  76  68 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 180905
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
405 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HAS BEEN VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE LOCAL SCALE...AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM NEAR 60F IN SOME MID-ISLAND AREAS TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE FLORIDA
REEF TRACT. THE LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR
VARIETY...WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING
MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSIST ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES
PREVAILING.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A
BENIGN UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND NIL MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY. A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HORIZONTAL ADVECTION OF COLD
OR WARM AIR WILL LEAD TO A SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR
MASS TOWARD THERMAL EQUILIBRIUM WITH THE UNDERLYING ADJACENT OCEAN
AREAS. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TREND OF SLOWLY INCREASING AIR AND
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY ABOUT
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
LACKING. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN LIKELY WILL UNDERGO CHANGES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...OR HEADLINES. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE MAINLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN NORTH
AND EAST. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1880...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  65  76  68 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  76  65  76  68 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 180905
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
405 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HAS BEEN VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE LOCAL SCALE...AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM NEAR 60F IN SOME MID-ISLAND AREAS TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE FLORIDA
REEF TRACT. THE LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR
VARIETY...WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING
MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSIST ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES
PREVAILING.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A
BENIGN UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND NIL MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY. A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HORIZONTAL ADVECTION OF COLD
OR WARM AIR WILL LEAD TO A SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR
MASS TOWARD THERMAL EQUILIBRIUM WITH THE UNDERLYING ADJACENT OCEAN
AREAS. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TREND OF SLOWLY INCREASING AIR AND
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY ABOUT
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
LACKING. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN LIKELY WILL UNDERGO CHANGES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...OR HEADLINES. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE MAINLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN NORTH
AND EAST. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1880...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  65  76  68 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  76  65  76  68 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 180905
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
405 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HAS BEEN VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE LOCAL SCALE...AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM NEAR 60F IN SOME MID-ISLAND AREAS TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE FLORIDA
REEF TRACT. THE LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR
VARIETY...WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING
MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSIST ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES
PREVAILING.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A
BENIGN UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND NIL MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY. A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HORIZONTAL ADVECTION OF COLD
OR WARM AIR WILL LEAD TO A SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR
MASS TOWARD THERMAL EQUILIBRIUM WITH THE UNDERLYING ADJACENT OCEAN
AREAS. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TREND OF SLOWLY INCREASING AIR AND
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY ABOUT
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
LACKING. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN LIKELY WILL UNDERGO CHANGES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...OR HEADLINES. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE MAINLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN NORTH
AND EAST. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1880...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  65  76  68 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  76  65  76  68 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 180905
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
405 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HAS BEEN VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE LOCAL SCALE...AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM NEAR 60F IN SOME MID-ISLAND AREAS TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE FLORIDA
REEF TRACT. THE LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR
VARIETY...WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING
MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSIST ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES
PREVAILING.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A
BENIGN UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND NIL MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY. A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HORIZONTAL ADVECTION OF COLD
OR WARM AIR WILL LEAD TO A SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR
MASS TOWARD THERMAL EQUILIBRIUM WITH THE UNDERLYING ADJACENT OCEAN
AREAS. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TREND OF SLOWLY INCREASING AIR AND
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY ABOUT
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
LACKING. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN LIKELY WILL UNDERGO CHANGES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...OR HEADLINES. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE MAINLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN NORTH
AND EAST. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1880...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  65  76  68 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  76  65  76  68 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 180905
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
405 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING HAS BEEN VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. AT THE LOCAL SCALE...AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM NEAR 60F IN SOME MID-ISLAND AREAS TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE FLORIDA
REEF TRACT. THE LOCAL AIR MASS REMAINS A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL POLAR
VARIETY...WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING
MOST CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN PERSIST ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES
PREVAILING.

PROGNOSTIC REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. A
BENIGN UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND NIL MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH SATURDAY. A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HORIZONTAL ADVECTION OF COLD
OR WARM AIR WILL LEAD TO A SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE NEAR-SURFACE AIR
MASS TOWARD THERMAL EQUILIBRIUM WITH THE UNDERLYING ADJACENT OCEAN
AREAS. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TREND OF SLOWLY INCREASING AIR AND
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY ABOUT
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN
LACKING. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN LIKELY WILL UNDERGO CHANGES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NEXT POSSIBLE COLD FRONT IN THE AREA AROUND
CHRISTMAS EVE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...OR HEADLINES. GENTLE TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE MAINLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT EYW AND MTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN NORTH
AND EAST. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS IS
POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1880...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 87 DEGREES WAS RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  76  65  76  68 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  76  65  76  68 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 180855
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
SKIES HEAVE CLEARED OUT...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...AS THE FIRST SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS PASSED WELL E-SE OF CENTRAL FL. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL OFF A BIT MORE...AND AS A RESULT SOME SHALLOW MIST HAS
FORMED ACROSS WESTERN FL. MORE CI/CS IS POISED TO MOVE BACK OVHD
BEFORE SUNRISE...THOUGH IR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SHOULD REMAIN
THIN. GIVEN CURRENT T/TD SPREADS OF 2-4F DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LOCALIZED SHALLOW MIST/GROUND FOG TO FORM.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...OWING IN PART TO HIGH CLOUDS
DIMMING THE SUN AS THEY STREAM OVHD. MAXES IN THE U60S TO L70S WITH
MINS IN THE 40S.

FRI-SAT...
A 100-110KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PUSH AN H100-H70 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GOMEX EWD ACRS THE BAHAMA BANK WHILE PULLING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE
RIDGE REMAINS LOW E OF THE MS RIVER WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BLO
50PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 30PCT.

MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED W OF THE MS RIVER WITH BOTH H100-H70 RH
VALUES AS HIGH AS 90PCT OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...H85-H50 VALUES
AOA 70PCT. NOTEWORTHY H85-H50 VORT MAXES WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AS WELL. HOWEVER... THESE WX FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE STRONG AND DEEP ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN TIER STATES THAT
WILL CARRY THEIR BULK ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH RATHER THAN INTO THE
GOMEX. INDEED...THE 18/00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS
OF DLVPG A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY...INSTEAD NOW
INDICATING A WEAK OPEN WAVE AS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FEATURE FOR THE
FRONT.

WITH THE CURRENT GOMEX RIDGE EXPECTED TO RELOCATE OVER THE SW ATLC
AND WEAK SWD MOTION ON THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO KEEP IT
FROM LAYING DOWN AND OVER THE PANHADLE. PTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIGHT NE
WINDS ON FRI AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE ERN SEABOARD...VEERING TO
THE S/SE ON SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. SEASONABLE MAX
TEMPS FRI DAYTIME MAXES IN THE L/M70S...MIN TEMPS ARND 5F ABV  AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE STATE. SAT/SAT
NIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ARND 5F ABV AVG AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
S/SE.

SUN-WED...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. COULD SEE A LITTLE PATCHY MIFG 10Z-13Z...BUT WOULD BE TRANSIENT
AND QUITE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A GENTLE NW-N BREEZE
AOB 10KT AND SEAS 1FT NEARSHORE/2FT OFFSHORE

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GOMEX TO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD. AS IT
DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY THRU THE DAY...TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE S/SE THRU
DAYBREAK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...UP TO 3FT IN THE
GULF STREAM.

SAT-MON...A WEAK H100-H70 SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND PUSH ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SAT...DRAGGING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEKEND...BCMG S/SW
GENTLE TO MODERAET ON MON AS A REINFORCING TROF PUSHES INTO THE
GOMEX REGION AND NUDGES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN PENINSULA. SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT DISPERSION TO
POOR-FAIR TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST AHPS DATA SHOWS THE GAGE ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER
ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS DROPPED TO 6.45FT...BELOW THE ACTION
STAGE OF 6.50FT. DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ENSURE A
CONTINUED SLOW FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  47  69  54 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  70  48  72  53 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  72  57 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  71  45  72  56 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  67  46  70  52 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  69  48  71  53 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  70  49  71  54 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  70  45  73  57 /   0   0  10   0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW





000
FXUS62 KMLB 180855
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
SKIES HEAVE CLEARED OUT...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...AS THE FIRST SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS PASSED WELL E-SE OF CENTRAL FL. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL OFF A BIT MORE...AND AS A RESULT SOME SHALLOW MIST HAS
FORMED ACROSS WESTERN FL. MORE CI/CS IS POISED TO MOVE BACK OVHD
BEFORE SUNRISE...THOUGH IR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SHOULD REMAIN
THIN. GIVEN CURRENT T/TD SPREADS OF 2-4F DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LOCALIZED SHALLOW MIST/GROUND FOG TO FORM.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...OWING IN PART TO HIGH CLOUDS
DIMMING THE SUN AS THEY STREAM OVHD. MAXES IN THE U60S TO L70S WITH
MINS IN THE 40S.

FRI-SAT...
A 100-110KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PUSH AN H100-H70 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GOMEX EWD ACRS THE BAHAMA BANK WHILE PULLING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE
RIDGE REMAINS LOW E OF THE MS RIVER WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BLO
50PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 30PCT.

MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED W OF THE MS RIVER WITH BOTH H100-H70 RH
VALUES AS HIGH AS 90PCT OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...H85-H50 VALUES
AOA 70PCT. NOTEWORTHY H85-H50 VORT MAXES WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AS WELL. HOWEVER... THESE WX FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE STRONG AND DEEP ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN TIER STATES THAT
WILL CARRY THEIR BULK ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH RATHER THAN INTO THE
GOMEX. INDEED...THE 18/00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS
OF DLVPG A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY...INSTEAD NOW
INDICATING A WEAK OPEN WAVE AS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FEATURE FOR THE
FRONT.

WITH THE CURRENT GOMEX RIDGE EXPECTED TO RELOCATE OVER THE SW ATLC
AND WEAK SWD MOTION ON THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO KEEP IT
FROM LAYING DOWN AND OVER THE PANHADLE. PTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIGHT NE
WINDS ON FRI AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE ERN SEABOARD...VEERING TO
THE S/SE ON SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. SEASONABLE MAX
TEMPS FRI DAYTIME MAXES IN THE L/M70S...MIN TEMPS ARND 5F ABV  AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE STATE. SAT/SAT
NIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ARND 5F ABV AVG AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
S/SE.

SUN-WED...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. COULD SEE A LITTLE PATCHY MIFG 10Z-13Z...BUT WOULD BE TRANSIENT
AND QUITE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A GENTLE NW-N BREEZE
AOB 10KT AND SEAS 1FT NEARSHORE/2FT OFFSHORE

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GOMEX TO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD. AS IT
DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY THRU THE DAY...TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE S/SE THRU
DAYBREAK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...UP TO 3FT IN THE
GULF STREAM.

SAT-MON...A WEAK H100-H70 SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND PUSH ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SAT...DRAGGING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEKEND...BCMG S/SW
GENTLE TO MODERAET ON MON AS A REINFORCING TROF PUSHES INTO THE
GOMEX REGION AND NUDGES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN PENINSULA. SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT DISPERSION TO
POOR-FAIR TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST AHPS DATA SHOWS THE GAGE ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER
ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS DROPPED TO 6.45FT...BELOW THE ACTION
STAGE OF 6.50FT. DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ENSURE A
CONTINUED SLOW FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  47  69  54 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  70  48  72  53 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  72  57 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  71  45  72  56 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  67  46  70  52 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  69  48  71  53 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  70  49  71  54 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  70  45  73  57 /   0   0  10   0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW






000
FXUS62 KMLB 180855
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
SKIES HEAVE CLEARED OUT...AT LEAST BRIEFLY...AS THE FIRST SWATH OF
HIGH CLOUDS HAS PASSED WELL E-SE OF CENTRAL FL. THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPS TO FALL OFF A BIT MORE...AND AS A RESULT SOME SHALLOW MIST HAS
FORMED ACROSS WESTERN FL. MORE CI/CS IS POISED TO MOVE BACK OVHD
BEFORE SUNRISE...THOUGH IR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SHOULD REMAIN
THIN. GIVEN CURRENT T/TD SPREADS OF 2-4F DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE
THAN LOCALIZED SHALLOW MIST/GROUND FOG TO FORM.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL DAY WITH
MAXES A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW CLIMO...OWING IN PART TO HIGH CLOUDS
DIMMING THE SUN AS THEY STREAM OVHD. MAXES IN THE U60S TO L70S WITH
MINS IN THE 40S.

FRI-SAT...
A 100-110KT H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PUSH AN H100-H70 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
GOMEX EWD ACRS THE BAHAMA BANK WHILE PULLING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE
RIDGE REMAINS LOW E OF THE MS RIVER WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES BLO
50PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 30PCT.

MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE NOTED W OF THE MS RIVER WITH BOTH H100-H70 RH
VALUES AS HIGH AS 90PCT OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...H85-H50 VALUES
AOA 70PCT. NOTEWORTHY H85-H50 VORT MAXES WORKING THEIR WAY INTO THE
SRN PLAINS AS WELL. HOWEVER... THESE WX FEATURES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE STRONG AND DEEP ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE SRN TIER STATES THAT
WILL CARRY THEIR BULK ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH RATHER THAN INTO THE
GOMEX. INDEED...THE 18/00Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF FROM EARLIER SOLUTIONS
OF DLVPG A CLOSED LOW ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY...INSTEAD NOW
INDICATING A WEAK OPEN WAVE AS THE PRIMARY DRIVING FEATURE FOR THE
FRONT.

WITH THE CURRENT GOMEX RIDGE EXPECTED TO RELOCATE OVER THE SW ATLC
AND WEAK SWD MOTION ON THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO KEEP IT
FROM LAYING DOWN AND OVER THE PANHADLE. PTLY CLOUDY SKIES LIGHT NE
WINDS ON FRI AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE ERN SEABOARD...VEERING TO
THE S/SE ON SAT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE NORTH. SEASONABLE MAX
TEMPS FRI DAYTIME MAXES IN THE L/M70S...MIN TEMPS ARND 5F ABV  AS
THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE STATE. SAT/SAT
NIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE ARND 5F ABV AVG AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
S/SE.

SUN-WED...
UPDATE TO FOLLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. COULD SEE A LITTLE PATCHY MIFG 10Z-13Z...BUT WOULD BE TRANSIENT
AND QUITE SHALLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...FINE BOATING CONDITIONS WITH A GENTLE NW-N BREEZE
AOB 10KT AND SEAS 1FT NEARSHORE/2FT OFFSHORE

FRI-FRI NIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NRN GOMEX TO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD. AS IT
DOES...THE PREVAILING LIGHT TO GENTLE NRLY BREEZE WILL VEER TO THE
NE BY THRU THE DAY...TO THE E BY MIDNIGHT...THEN TO THE S/SE THRU
DAYBREAK. FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS...SEAS GENERALLY AOB 2FT...UP TO 3FT IN THE
GULF STREAM.

SAT-MON...A WEAK H100-H70 SHORTWAVE WILL PINCH OFF OF THE BASE OF
THE TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND PUSH ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH ON
SAT...DRAGGING A COOL FRONT INTO THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT LIGHT TO GENTLE SRLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEKEND...BCMG S/SW
GENTLE TO MODERAET ON MON AS A REINFORCING TROF PUSHES INTO THE
GOMEX REGION AND NUDGES THE FRONT INTO THE NRN PENINSULA. SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 30S ONCE AGAIN
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS AND ERC VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT DISPERSION TO
POOR-FAIR TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...LATEST AHPS DATA SHOWS THE GAGE ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER
ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS DROPPED TO 6.45FT...BELOW THE ACTION
STAGE OF 6.50FT. DRY WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL ENSURE A
CONTINUED SLOW FALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  47  69  54 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  70  48  72  53 /   0   0  10   0
MLB  69  47  72  57 /   0   0  10   0
VRB  71  45  72  56 /   0   0  10   0
LEE  67  46  70  52 /   0   0  10  10
SFB  69  48  71  53 /   0   0  10  10
ORL  70  49  71  54 /   0   0  10  10
FPR  70  45  73  57 /   0   0  10   0

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW






000
FXUS62 KMFL 180825
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180825
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 180825
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 180825
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 180825
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 180825
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KTBW 180739
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
239 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE
MID 50S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHILE OUR NORTHERN ZONES ARE
DROPPING THROUGH THE 40S. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MID OR UPPER 30S
BEFORE SUNRISE OVER THE INTERIOR NATURE COAST.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AND WEAKEN TODAY. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS COULD DIM THE SUN
FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...REMAINING IN THE 60S FROM ABOUT THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTH.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS ONE
THAT IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED IN NATURE...HOWEVER WE WILL BE TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH/TN
VALLEY DURING SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
THIS ENERGY ALOFT INITIATING WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE/NE
GULF FOR SATURDAY. ALL INDICATIONS THAT THIS SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER THE DETAILS OF ITS DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE MARINE FORECAST IN TERMS OF WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEADLINE CRITERIA SPEEDS
WILL NOT BE MET...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE ON WIND
DIRECTION OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO UNCERTAINLY IN THE LOW TRACK.
FOR THE PENINSULA...BEST LIFTING MECHANISM ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
AREA...AND CURRENTLY ONLY BRING A 20% POP INTO LEVY COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE FL BIG BEND REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
WAVE WILL HAVE FADED/TRANSLATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SO NOT
MUCH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...NEW ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
AND GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS THIS ENERGY THAT LOOKS TO REINVIGORATE THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WITH NEW SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT THAT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE END OF SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
INCREASING BASED ON AN ENSEMBLE OF THE PAST FEW GUIDANCE RUNS...THAT
THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL LINGER TROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF OF
MEXICO.

WE ARE GETTING QUITE A WAYS OUT INTO THE EXTENDED BY THIS
POINT...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY AGREEMENT THAT ONE FINAL AND STRONGER
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND PROPEL A STRONGER AND
ULTIMATELY CLEARING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN RAPID
DRYING/CLEARING. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAVERING A BIT ON JUST
HOW DEEP THIS FINAL TROUGH WILL BECOME AND HOW POTENT THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY (AND HENCE SYNOPTICS FOR LIFT) IMPACTING OUR REGION
WILL BE. WHILE RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD BET...IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PREDICT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. REALLY GETTING A LONG WAY OUT...BUT THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE
COOLER...BUT DRY AS A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG AT TIMES THROUGH 14Z. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
SEE WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR SEAS OVER 4 FEET UNTIL TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  51  72  58 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  74  51  76  57 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  70  48  72  55 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  69  48  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  69  39  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  53  71  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 180739
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
239 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE
MID 50S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHILE OUR NORTHERN ZONES ARE
DROPPING THROUGH THE 40S. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MID OR UPPER 30S
BEFORE SUNRISE OVER THE INTERIOR NATURE COAST.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AND WEAKEN TODAY. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS COULD DIM THE SUN
FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...REMAINING IN THE 60S FROM ABOUT THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTH.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS ONE
THAT IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED IN NATURE...HOWEVER WE WILL BE TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH/TN
VALLEY DURING SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
THIS ENERGY ALOFT INITIATING WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE/NE
GULF FOR SATURDAY. ALL INDICATIONS THAT THIS SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER THE DETAILS OF ITS DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE MARINE FORECAST IN TERMS OF WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEADLINE CRITERIA SPEEDS
WILL NOT BE MET...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE ON WIND
DIRECTION OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO UNCERTAINLY IN THE LOW TRACK.
FOR THE PENINSULA...BEST LIFTING MECHANISM ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
AREA...AND CURRENTLY ONLY BRING A 20% POP INTO LEVY COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE FL BIG BEND REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
WAVE WILL HAVE FADED/TRANSLATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SO NOT
MUCH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...NEW ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
AND GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS THIS ENERGY THAT LOOKS TO REINVIGORATE THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WITH NEW SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT THAT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE END OF SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
INCREASING BASED ON AN ENSEMBLE OF THE PAST FEW GUIDANCE RUNS...THAT
THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL LINGER TROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF OF
MEXICO.

WE ARE GETTING QUITE A WAYS OUT INTO THE EXTENDED BY THIS
POINT...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY AGREEMENT THAT ONE FINAL AND STRONGER
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND PROPEL A STRONGER AND
ULTIMATELY CLEARING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN RAPID
DRYING/CLEARING. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAVERING A BIT ON JUST
HOW DEEP THIS FINAL TROUGH WILL BECOME AND HOW POTENT THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY (AND HENCE SYNOPTICS FOR LIFT) IMPACTING OUR REGION
WILL BE. WHILE RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD BET...IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PREDICT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. REALLY GETTING A LONG WAY OUT...BUT THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE
COOLER...BUT DRY AS A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG AT TIMES THROUGH 14Z. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
SEE WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR SEAS OVER 4 FEET UNTIL TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  51  72  58 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  74  51  76  57 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  70  48  72  55 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  69  48  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  69  39  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  53  71  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 180739
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
239 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE
MID 50S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHILE OUR NORTHERN ZONES ARE
DROPPING THROUGH THE 40S. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MID OR UPPER 30S
BEFORE SUNRISE OVER THE INTERIOR NATURE COAST.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AND WEAKEN TODAY. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS COULD DIM THE SUN
FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...REMAINING IN THE 60S FROM ABOUT THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTH.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS ONE
THAT IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED IN NATURE...HOWEVER WE WILL BE TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH/TN
VALLEY DURING SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
THIS ENERGY ALOFT INITIATING WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE/NE
GULF FOR SATURDAY. ALL INDICATIONS THAT THIS SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER THE DETAILS OF ITS DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE MARINE FORECAST IN TERMS OF WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEADLINE CRITERIA SPEEDS
WILL NOT BE MET...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE ON WIND
DIRECTION OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO UNCERTAINLY IN THE LOW TRACK.
FOR THE PENINSULA...BEST LIFTING MECHANISM ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
AREA...AND CURRENTLY ONLY BRING A 20% POP INTO LEVY COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE FL BIG BEND REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
WAVE WILL HAVE FADED/TRANSLATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SO NOT
MUCH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...NEW ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
AND GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS THIS ENERGY THAT LOOKS TO REINVIGORATE THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WITH NEW SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT THAT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE END OF SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
INCREASING BASED ON AN ENSEMBLE OF THE PAST FEW GUIDANCE RUNS...THAT
THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL LINGER TROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF OF
MEXICO.

WE ARE GETTING QUITE A WAYS OUT INTO THE EXTENDED BY THIS
POINT...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY AGREEMENT THAT ONE FINAL AND STRONGER
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND PROPEL A STRONGER AND
ULTIMATELY CLEARING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN RAPID
DRYING/CLEARING. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAVERING A BIT ON JUST
HOW DEEP THIS FINAL TROUGH WILL BECOME AND HOW POTENT THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY (AND HENCE SYNOPTICS FOR LIFT) IMPACTING OUR REGION
WILL BE. WHILE RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD BET...IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PREDICT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. REALLY GETTING A LONG WAY OUT...BUT THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE
COOLER...BUT DRY AS A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG AT TIMES THROUGH 14Z. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
SEE WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR SEAS OVER 4 FEET UNTIL TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  51  72  58 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  74  51  76  57 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  70  48  72  55 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  69  48  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  69  39  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  53  71  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KTBW 180739
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
239 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - FRIDAY)...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE
MID 50S OVER OUR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHILE OUR NORTHERN ZONES ARE
DROPPING THROUGH THE 40S. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME MID OR UPPER 30S
BEFORE SUNRISE OVER THE INTERIOR NATURE COAST.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AND WEAKEN TODAY. SKIES WILL BE
PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS COULD DIM THE SUN
FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY...REMAINING IN THE 60S FROM ABOUT THE TAMPA BAY AREA
NORTH.

ON FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS TEXAS AND
TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE SOME...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...AROUND 70 NORTH TO THE MID 70S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TO START OUT THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS ONE
THAT IS NOT VERY AMPLIFIED IN NATURE...HOWEVER WE WILL BE TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH/TN
VALLEY DURING SATURDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING
THIS ENERGY ALOFT INITIATING WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE/NE
GULF FOR SATURDAY. ALL INDICATIONS THAT THIS SURFACE WAVE WILL BE
RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER THE DETAILS OF ITS DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE MARINE FORECAST IN TERMS OF WIND DIRECTION AND
SPEED. CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT HEADLINE CRITERIA SPEEDS
WILL NOT BE MET...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE ON WIND
DIRECTION OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO UNCERTAINLY IN THE LOW TRACK.
FOR THE PENINSULA...BEST LIFTING MECHANISM ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG
WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OUR
AREA...AND CURRENTLY ONLY BRING A 20% POP INTO LEVY COUNTY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
DRY.

STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE FL BIG BEND REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE
WAVE WILL HAVE FADED/TRANSLATED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SO NOT
MUCH IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THEREAFTER...NEW ENERGY IN THE FORM OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY
AND GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS THIS ENERGY THAT LOOKS TO REINVIGORATE THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WITH NEW SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT THAT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA BEFORE THE END OF SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO
INCREASING BASED ON AN ENSEMBLE OF THE PAST FEW GUIDANCE RUNS...THAT
THIS UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL LINGER TROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH BOUTS OF SHOWERS
ARE LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/GULF OF
MEXICO.

WE ARE GETTING QUITE A WAYS OUT INTO THE EXTENDED BY THIS
POINT...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY AGREEMENT THAT ONE FINAL AND STRONGER
PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND PROPEL A STRONGER AND
ULTIMATELY CLEARING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND THEN RAPID
DRYING/CLEARING. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN WAVERING A BIT ON JUST
HOW DEEP THIS FINAL TROUGH WILL BECOME AND HOW POTENT THE UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY (AND HENCE SYNOPTICS FOR LIFT) IMPACTING OUR REGION
WILL BE. WHILE RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD BET...IT IS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PREDICT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. REALLY GETTING A LONG WAY OUT...BUT THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS
CURRENTLY ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY/CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE
COOLER...BUT DRY AS A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG AT TIMES THROUGH 14Z. DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL
SEE WINDS OVER 20 KNOTS OR SEAS OVER 4 FEET UNTIL TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WHEN A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL
INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  69  51  72  58 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  74  51  76  57 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  70  48  72  55 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  69  48  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  69  39  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  53  71  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...JILLSON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...MROCZKA






000
FXUS62 KMFL 180545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1245 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

SOME MID CLDS AT KPBI BUT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT NEAR THE LAKE REGION. BKN 25KFT CLDS MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE
MOST SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE SE. GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES AT KAPF/KTMB BUT NOTHING LESS THAN 4SM.
PERSISTENT CANOPY OF MID HIGH CLDS MAY PRECLUDE THIS FROM
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED WITH SIMILAR SEA BREEZE TIME
AND DURATION AS YESTERDAY, DEVELOPING LATE DAY AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH QUIET WEATHER ONLY MADE SOME VERY SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER FOR THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG IN THE INTERIOR AREAS.
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WHILE THEY WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW, THEY STILL LOOK TO VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY, SO KEPT VARIABLE AT 4 KTS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WEAKENING. THE ECMWF HOWEVER SHOWS WHAT
EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 180545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1245 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

SOME MID CLDS AT KPBI BUT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT NEAR THE LAKE REGION. BKN 25KFT CLDS MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE
MOST SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE SE. GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES AT KAPF/KTMB BUT NOTHING LESS THAN 4SM.
PERSISTENT CANOPY OF MID HIGH CLDS MAY PRECLUDE THIS FROM
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED WITH SIMILAR SEA BREEZE TIME
AND DURATION AS YESTERDAY, DEVELOPING LATE DAY AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH QUIET WEATHER ONLY MADE SOME VERY SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER FOR THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG IN THE INTERIOR AREAS.
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WHILE THEY WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW, THEY STILL LOOK TO VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY, SO KEPT VARIABLE AT 4 KTS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WEAKENING. THE ECMWF HOWEVER SHOWS WHAT
EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KTAE 180330
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1030 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure at the sfc and ridging aloft will bring a quiet
weather pattern with clear skies overnight. Lows will be in the upper
30s tonight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week as relative
humidity will be too high even during the afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [434 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.


.Marine...

It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.


.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 180330
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1030 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure at the sfc and ridging aloft will bring a quiet
weather pattern with clear skies overnight. Lows will be in the upper
30s tonight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week as relative
humidity will be too high even during the afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [434 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.


.Marine...

It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.


.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 180330
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1030 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure at the sfc and ridging aloft will bring a quiet
weather pattern with clear skies overnight. Lows will be in the upper
30s tonight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week as relative
humidity will be too high even during the afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [434 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.


.Marine...

It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.


.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KTAE 180330
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1030 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure at the sfc and ridging aloft will bring a quiet
weather pattern with clear skies overnight. Lows will be in the upper
30s tonight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday]...

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week as relative
humidity will be too high even during the afternoon hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion [434 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.


.Marine...

It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.


.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






000
FXUS62 KKEY 180329
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SURFACE RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS AS A MID LATITUDE LOW EMERGES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS ARE WEAK OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STABLE CLEAR CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED SOME INTERIOR
ISLAND LOCATIONS TO SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 60...WHILE
OTHER ISLAND LOCATIONS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS HAVE
ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND LINGER
NEAR 60. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED ON LOCAL RADARS.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS
NEARBY. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH THE WEAK FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO
RADIATE TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. WILL UPDATE TO NUDGE DOWNWARDS OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT...DUE TO A RIDGE AXIS LYING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. WEAK FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING ENHANCEMENT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...WITH WINDS
BEING WEAK OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 180329
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SURFACE RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS AS A MID LATITUDE LOW EMERGES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS ARE WEAK OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STABLE CLEAR CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED SOME INTERIOR
ISLAND LOCATIONS TO SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 60...WHILE
OTHER ISLAND LOCATIONS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS HAVE
ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND LINGER
NEAR 60. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED ON LOCAL RADARS.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS
NEARBY. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH THE WEAK FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO
RADIATE TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. WILL UPDATE TO NUDGE DOWNWARDS OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT...DUE TO A RIDGE AXIS LYING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. WEAK FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING ENHANCEMENT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...WITH WINDS
BEING WEAK OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 180329
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SURFACE RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS AS A MID LATITUDE LOW EMERGES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS ARE WEAK OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STABLE CLEAR CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED SOME INTERIOR
ISLAND LOCATIONS TO SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 60...WHILE
OTHER ISLAND LOCATIONS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS HAVE
ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND LINGER
NEAR 60. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED ON LOCAL RADARS.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS
NEARBY. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH THE WEAK FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO
RADIATE TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. WILL UPDATE TO NUDGE DOWNWARDS OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT...DUE TO A RIDGE AXIS LYING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. WEAK FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING ENHANCEMENT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...WITH WINDS
BEING WEAK OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 180329
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1029 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A SURFACE RIDGE HAS SETTLED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS AS A MID LATITUDE LOW EMERGES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS ARE WEAK OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STABLE CLEAR CONDITIONS HAS ALLOWED SOME INTERIOR
ISLAND LOCATIONS TO SETTLE INTO THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 60...WHILE
OTHER ISLAND LOCATIONS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. DEW POINTS HAVE
ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND LINGER
NEAR 60. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DETECTED ON LOCAL RADARS.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS REMAINS
NEARBY. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ALONG WITH THE WEAK FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE MORE INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO
RADIATE TO NEAR 60 DEGREES. WILL UPDATE TO NUDGE DOWNWARDS OVERNIGHT
LOWS AND WINDS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS
OVERNIGHT...DUE TO A RIDGE AXIS LYING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. WEAK FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING ENHANCEMENT IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE
EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...WITH WINDS
BEING WEAK OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 180219
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TRIGGER PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. AT THE SURFACE...A COOL AND MOIST
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 DEGREES INLAND BUT
LIKELY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S...AND EXPECTED LOW TEMPS TO
CROSS-OVER BELOW THESE VALUES IN MOST LOCATIONS...FOG WOULD
NORMALLY BE EXPECTED...BUT SOME NEGATING FACTORS ARE THE PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW...TAKING A LOOK AT SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS (NARRE/HRRR) BOTH SHOW AREAS OF FOG FORMING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL FROM LIVE OAK SOUTHWARD TO
GAINESVILLE/OCALA...WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ALONG WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS...FOR NOW HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS/ZFP
IN THESE LOCATIONS AND HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE HWO
DUE TO THE MODERATE-HIGH PROBS OF THIS POSSIBILITY AS DEPICTED IN
THE NARRE/HRRR MODEL RUNS. TIMING OF FOG WILL BE JUST AROUND THE
SUNRISE HOUR. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL FOG AT KGNV/KVQQ AROUND SUNRISE IN THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS 1-3 FT INTO THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  63  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  43  62  47  61 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  39  64  45  66 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  41  63  50  65 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  37  65  44  68 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  39  67  44  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER





000
FXUS62 KJAX 180219
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
919 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL TRIGGER PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. AT THE SURFACE...A COOL AND MOIST
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 DEGREES INLAND BUT
LIKELY NOT COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST FORMATION...BUT WITH CURRENT
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 40S...AND EXPECTED LOW TEMPS TO
CROSS-OVER BELOW THESE VALUES IN MOST LOCATIONS...FOG WOULD
NORMALLY BE EXPECTED...BUT SOME NEGATING FACTORS ARE THE PERIODS
OF HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW...TAKING A LOOK AT SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS (NARRE/HRRR) BOTH SHOW AREAS OF FOG FORMING
ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF NE FL FROM LIVE OAK SOUTHWARD TO
GAINESVILLE/OCALA...WHERE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE MINIMAL ALONG WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS...FOR NOW HAVE ADDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS/ZFP
IN THESE LOCATIONS AND HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE HWO
DUE TO THE MODERATE-HIGH PROBS OF THIS POSSIBILITY AS DEPICTED IN
THE NARRE/HRRR MODEL RUNS. TIMING OF FOG WILL BE JUST AROUND THE
SUNRISE HOUR. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
POTENTIAL FOG AT KGNV/KVQQ AROUND SUNRISE IN THE NEXT TAF CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH SEAS 1-3 FT INTO THURSDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  63  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  43  62  47  61 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  39  64  45  66 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  41  63  50  65 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  37  65  44  68 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  39  67  44  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/STRUBLE/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 180215
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
EVENING.

AMENDED THE SKY GRIDS TO SHOW INCREASED CLOUDS WITHOUT LEAVING THE
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BROKEN SKIES AROUND FL250 IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE MIDNIGHT/05Z
LOCAL. NO SIG IMPACT ON TAFS. GROUND STILL MOIST AND WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10 KNOTS AND
1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120NM.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES TO ALTER ONGOING FORECAST.

THE EVENING UPDATE WILL HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET OVERNIGHT
BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI
AFTN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE
IS FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO
STAY FAIR AT BEST. ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
EXISTING FIRES OR SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW)
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE
HARNEY (GENF1) HAS FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM
(6.50FT). PROTRACTED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW
ACTION STAGE BY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK









000
FXUS62 KMLB 180215
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
EVENING.

AMENDED THE SKY GRIDS TO SHOW INCREASED CLOUDS WITHOUT LEAVING THE
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BROKEN SKIES AROUND FL250 IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE MIDNIGHT/05Z
LOCAL. NO SIG IMPACT ON TAFS. GROUND STILL MOIST AND WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10 KNOTS AND
1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120NM.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES TO ALTER ONGOING FORECAST.

THE EVENING UPDATE WILL HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET OVERNIGHT
BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI
AFTN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE
IS FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO
STAY FAIR AT BEST. ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
EXISTING FIRES OR SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW)
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE
HARNEY (GENF1) HAS FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM
(6.50FT). PROTRACTED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW
ACTION STAGE BY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK









000
FXUS62 KMLB 180215
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
EVENING.

AMENDED THE SKY GRIDS TO SHOW INCREASED CLOUDS WITHOUT LEAVING THE
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BROKEN SKIES AROUND FL250 IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE MIDNIGHT/05Z
LOCAL. NO SIG IMPACT ON TAFS. GROUND STILL MOIST AND WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10 KNOTS AND
1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120NM.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES TO ALTER ONGOING FORECAST.

THE EVENING UPDATE WILL HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET OVERNIGHT
BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI
AFTN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE
IS FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO
STAY FAIR AT BEST. ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
EXISTING FIRES OR SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW)
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE
HARNEY (GENF1) HAS FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM
(6.50FT). PROTRACTED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW
ACTION STAGE BY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK









000
FXUS62 KMLB 180215
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
EVENING.

AMENDED THE SKY GRIDS TO SHOW INCREASED CLOUDS WITHOUT LEAVING THE
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION
TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING BROKEN SKIES AROUND FL250 IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE MIDNIGHT/05Z
LOCAL. NO SIG IMPACT ON TAFS. GROUND STILL MOIST AND WITH LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE
TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOYS RECORDING NORTHWEST WINDS TO 10 KNOTS AND
1 TO 3 FOOT SEAS OUT TO 120NM.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES TO ALTER ONGOING FORECAST.

THE EVENING UPDATE WILL HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO GENTLE
NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET OVERNIGHT
BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PREVIOUS FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI
AFTN IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE
IS FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN
APPROACHING WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO
STAY FAIR AT BEST. ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND
EXISTING FIRES OR SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW)
PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PREVIOUS HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE
HARNEY (GENF1) HAS FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM
(6.50FT). PROTRACTED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW
ACTION STAGE BY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK









000
FXUS62 KTBW 180208
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
908 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO NORTHERN FL FROM THE
NW. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S- LOWER 40S
NORTH...TO THE MID 40S-MID 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH THIS AND HAVE NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM 10-14Z MAINLY AT KLAL AND
KPGD AND CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THAT...OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SCT-BKN250
CIRRUS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS AROUND OR BELOW
10 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS NEXT ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY LEADING TO A HIGHER CHANCE
OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY





000
FXUS62 KTBW 180208
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
908 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE SOME CIRRUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND RIDGING BUILDING INTO NORTHERN FL FROM THE
NW. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S- LOWER 40S
NORTH...TO THE MID 40S-MID 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH THIS AND HAVE NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME PATCHY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE FROM 10-14Z MAINLY AT KLAL AND
KPGD AND CURRENTLY HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR
THAT...OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS WITH SCT-BKN250
CIRRUS IN PLACE AND LIGHT NW WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
PLEASANT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
IN FROM THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS AROUND OR BELOW
10 KNOTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS NEXT ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY LEADING TO A HIGHER CHANCE
OF RAIN THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...24/HUBBARD
MARINE...74/WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...13/OGLESBY






000
FXUS62 KMFL 172323
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
623 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH QUIET WEATHER ONLY MADE SOME VERY SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG IN THE INTERIOR AREAS.
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WHILE THEY WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW, THEY STILL LOOK TO VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY, SO KEPT VARIABLE AT 4 KTS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN TO
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  75  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           57  72  54  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 172323
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
623 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH QUIET WEATHER ONLY MADE SOME VERY SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG IN THE INTERIOR AREAS.
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WHILE THEY WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW, THEY STILL LOOK TO VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY, SO KEPT VARIABLE AT 4 KTS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN TO
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  75  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           57  72  54  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 172323
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
623 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH QUIET WEATHER ONLY MADE SOME VERY SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG IN THE INTERIOR AREAS.
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WHILE THEY WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW, THEY STILL LOOK TO VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY, SO KEPT VARIABLE AT 4 KTS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN TO
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  75  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           57  72  54  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 172323
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
623 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH QUIET WEATHER ONLY MADE SOME VERY SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG IN THE INTERIOR AREAS.
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WHILE THEY WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW, THEY STILL LOOK TO VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY, SO KEPT VARIABLE AT 4 KTS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN TO
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  75  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           57  72  54  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KTAE 172134
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
434 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will keep the weather
tranquil overnight. Radiational cooling will be somewhat limited
by incoming cirrus clouds, keeping temperatures well above
freezing. However, temperatures should be able to reach the upper
30s to around 40 degrees in most locations by morning.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] Light winds and some high cirrus will
continue through the forecast period, with VFR conditions
expected at all terminals.

&&

.Marine...

It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week.

&&

.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 172134
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
434 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will keep the weather
tranquil overnight. Radiational cooling will be somewhat limited
by incoming cirrus clouds, keeping temperatures well above
freezing. However, temperatures should be able to reach the upper
30s to around 40 degrees in most locations by morning.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] Light winds and some high cirrus will
continue through the forecast period, with VFR conditions
expected at all terminals.

&&

.Marine...

It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week.

&&

.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 172134
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
434 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will keep the weather
tranquil overnight. Radiational cooling will be somewhat limited
by incoming cirrus clouds, keeping temperatures well above
freezing. However, temperatures should be able to reach the upper
30s to around 40 degrees in most locations by morning.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] Light winds and some high cirrus will
continue through the forecast period, with VFR conditions
expected at all terminals.

&&

.Marine...

It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week.

&&

.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTAE 172134
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
434 PM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Zonal flow aloft and surface high pressure will keep the weather
tranquil overnight. Radiational cooling will be somewhat limited
by incoming cirrus clouds, keeping temperatures well above
freezing. However, temperatures should be able to reach the upper
30s to around 40 degrees in most locations by morning.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A shortwave trough that will be located near the Four Corners on
Thursday will quickly push east and deamplify, reaching the
Mississippi River by Friday Night. We are expecting weak surface
cyclogenesis along the Gulf coast associated with this ejecting
wave, and the low should be situated fairly close to the coast.
Overall, the trend of a deamplifying wave passing north of our
area and relatively stable heights aloft suggests that forcing for
ascent and precipitation will not be very strong. Thursday will be
a dry day, with chances of rain showers building in from the west
on Friday and Friday Night. We kept PoPs in the "chance" (<55%)
range for now given the weak forcing. Temperatures will be near or
slightly above normal through the period.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

As the surface low moves into, and through, the area on Saturday,
there should be a chance of rain over the entire forecast area.
Forecast models continue to indicate some instability, so
thunderstorms were maintained in the forecast. At this time,
the severe weather risk looks minimal. A stalling front just
southeast of our forecast area, and the upper level trough axis
positioned to the west, suggests that rain chances may continue
until a much stronger cold front ultimately arrives Tuesday or
early Wednesday. Temperatures will be near normal in advance of
the second cold front, although a significant cool-down could be
into the latter half of the next week.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] Light winds and some high cirrus will
continue through the forecast period, with VFR conditions
expected at all terminals.

&&

.Marine...

It initially looked as though at least SCEC level winds would be
likely with the upcoming low pressure system Friday Night and
Saturday, but the forecast models are now showing a much weaker
system. Therefore, winds should peak around 15 knots, with the
next chance of hazardous marine conditions coming with a stronger
cold front Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected for the next week.

&&

.Hydrology...

With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  68  42  69  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   45  63  49  67  56 /   0   0  10  20  30
Dothan        40  64  44  63  49 /   0   0  10  40  40
Albany        37  64  41  66  48 /   0   0  10  30  40
Valdosta      37  65  41  68  47 /   0   0   0  10  20
Cross City    38  67  41  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  43  65  49  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KMFL 172008
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN TO
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

&&

.AVIATION...

THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND PASSING
THE KAPF TAF SITE. THEREFORE...THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH 23Z AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES SHOULD STILL SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES.

/60

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  75  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           57  72  54  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AG/DG
AVIATION...BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 172008
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN TO
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

&&

.AVIATION...

THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND PASSING
THE KAPF TAF SITE. THEREFORE...THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH 23Z AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES SHOULD STILL SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES.

/60

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  75  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           57  72  54  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AG/DG
AVIATION...BNB




000
FXUS62 KJAX 171959
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
259 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING AND STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE (1031
MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER MIDWESTERN STATES AND PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS LOCALLY...AS OUR REGION IS BETWEEN A ROBUST RIDGE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL OVER OUR AREA...COMPLIMENTS OF A
VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT AS DISPLAYED BY THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
JACKSONVILLE AND TALLAHASSEE. TEMPERATURES INLAND WERE NEAR
CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST...WHERE LOWER 60S WERE
OBSERVED. DEWPOINTS AT 19Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S.

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...
A CIRRUS SHIELD PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW...CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GA...WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. THESE CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL ONLY TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY...AS LOWS
FALL TO BELOW MID-DECEMBER CLIMO...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED
INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST. FROST FORMATION IS
NOT EXPECTED INLAND...AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH EASTERN
CONUS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT NWLY TO NLY WINDS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. UPSTREAM TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S ALLOWING HIGH CIRROFORM CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE ZONAL
FLOW WITH MAINLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH MINIMUMS NEAR 50 AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
MOISTEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE DEBILITATED WITH THE BEST ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GA, TENNESSEE, AND CAROLINAS. LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TRACK EASTWARD ALONG GULF COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION DECREASES IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
OVER OUR AREA...HAVE POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST POPS NW TO LOWEST
POPS SE SAT NIGHT...THEN LOWEST NW/HIGHEST SE SUNDAY.

A DEEP SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ALONG/NORTH OF SHALLOW
FRONT WILL BRING DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOST AREAS MONDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WILL PUSH PUSHING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS LONG WAVE TROF AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE RAINFALL EVENT AND QPF FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA MON/TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WITH COLD
FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN STRONG NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROF AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 3000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS OF
NEAR OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY
SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT
SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE UP TO AROUND 60-62 DEGREES OVER WATER
TEMPS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 50S BUT TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THE
CURRENT FCSTS. THEN...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE WATERS AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  64  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  41  61  47  61 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  37  65  45  66 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  42  65  50  65 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  37  67  44  68 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  38  68  44  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/CORDERO/WALKER







000
FXUS62 KJAX 171959
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
259 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.CURRENTLY...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING AND STALLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE (1031
MILLIBARS) WAS CENTERED OVER MIDWESTERN STATES AND PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS LOCALLY...AS OUR REGION IS BETWEEN A ROBUST RIDGE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES STATES. FAIR SKIES PREVAIL OVER OUR AREA...COMPLIMENTS OF A
VERY DRY AIR MASS ALOFT AS DISPLAYED BY THE 12Z SOUNDINGS AT
JACKSONVILLE AND TALLAHASSEE. TEMPERATURES INLAND WERE NEAR
CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GA COAST...WHERE LOWER 60S WERE
OBSERVED. DEWPOINTS AT 19Z RANGED FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID
40S.

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT)...
A CIRRUS SHIELD PROGRESSING EASTWARD WITHIN THE ZONAL
FLOW...CURRENTLY SPREADING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GA...WILL ADVECT ACROSS OUR REGION THIS EVENING. THESE CIRRUS
CLOUDS WILL ONLY TEMPER RADIATIONAL COOLING SLIGHTLY...AS LOWS
FALL TO BELOW MID-DECEMBER CLIMO...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S EXPECTED
INLAND...RANGING TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST. FROST FORMATION IS
NOT EXPECTED INLAND...AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS MORNING.

.SHORT TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM EASTERN CANADA THROUGH EASTERN
CONUS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT NWLY TO NLY WINDS
DURING THIS TIME-FRAME. UPSTREAM TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THE U.S ALLOWING HIGH CIRROFORM CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE ZONAL
FLOW WITH MAINLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH MINIMUMS NEAR 50 AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
FRIDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION
MOISTEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE DEBILITATED WITH THE BEST ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN GA, TENNESSEE, AND CAROLINAS. LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TRACK EASTWARD ALONG GULF COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION DECREASES IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
OVER OUR AREA...HAVE POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST POPS NW TO LOWEST
POPS SE SAT NIGHT...THEN LOWEST NW/HIGHEST SE SUNDAY.

A DEEP SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ALONG/NORTH OF SHALLOW
FRONT WILL BRING DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOST AREAS MONDAY. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
THE WEEKEND COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MONDAY
WILL PUSH PUSHING WELL NORTH OF THE REGION AS A WARM FRONT BY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WEAKENED BOUNDARY AND MOVE EAST...WITH THE STRONGEST
DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN
AMPLIFIED CENTRAL CONUS LONG WAVE TROF AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THE ECMWF IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE RAINFALL EVENT AND QPF FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA MON/TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WITH COLD
FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN STRONG NEGATIVELY-
TILTED TROF AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AT THE REGIONAL
TERMINALS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 3000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS OF
NEAR OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY
SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT
SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE UP TO AROUND 60-62 DEGREES OVER WATER
TEMPS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 50S BUT TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THE
CURRENT FCSTS. THEN...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE WATERS AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  37  64  41  64 /   0   0   0  10
SSI  41  61  47  61 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  37  65  45  66 /   0   0   0  10
SGJ  42  65  50  65 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  37  67  44  68 /   0   0   0  10
OCF  38  68  44  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/CORDERO/WALKER








000
FXUS62 KTBW 171958
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
258 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
FRONTAL MOVE LITTLE LITTLE ACROSS SRN AREAS UNTIL GETTING A SECOND
WIND AFTER NIGHTFALL WITH SOME VERY MODEST PRESSURE RISES. THIS WILL
FINALLY PROMPT BETTER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY
ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER FAR SOUTH COS STILL MAY NOT SEE A FROPA UNTIL
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THINK LESS AGGRESSIVE DEWPOINT FALLS
ARE IN ORDER BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN WEAKNESS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
ABOVE NORMAL GROUND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LIKE RAW MODEL
BLENDS OVER MOS FORECASTS FOR DEWPOINTS. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK
WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING (NOT TO MENTION 90-100% RH
CURRENT T/TD FORECAST PROVIDES) SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESP IN TYPICAL SHELTERED/LOW LYING AREAS WHICH FAVOR
FOG. GIVEN THIS HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAVORED AREAS. A FEW PATCHY DENSE REPORTS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS RURAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
TRAVERSING GREAT LAKES/MID WEST WILL CONTINUE PROVIDE RIDGING ALL
THE WAY INTO FL THROUGH THU. THIS WILL PROMOTE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE UPR 60S NORTH AND LOW-MID 70S SOUTH
AFTER A MORNING WITH MOSTLY UPR 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH. WILL SEE
INCREASE IN JET CIRRUS FROM THE WEST ASSOC W/A 100+ KT JET STREAK
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/DEEP SOUTH. WILL INTRODUCE PCLDY SKIES TONIGHT
INTO THU ACROSS NRN HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT MIGHT EVEN BE THICK
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE MCDLY WORDING FOR WED.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES (POPS 20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE STATE. UNLIKE YESTERDAY MODELS ARE NOW IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF NOW STALLING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA ON SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH THIS WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA EARLY ON MONDAY...THEN
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE) POOLING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITHIN THE DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES WILL ALL AID IN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE REGION WITH
AN OVERRUNNING EVENT...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUPPORTING POPS IN
THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH
INTO THE NATURE COAST.

DURING MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY BECOMING A FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF COAST...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
DOES SO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST IT WILL INDUCE
YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER THE MS/TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH THIS
LOW THEN DEEPENING AND LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-12
TO -13C) SUPPORTING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
STORMS AS WELL. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ALSO SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET
(40-50 KNOT RANGE) MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA. THIS
JET COMBINED WITH THE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR
(SHERB VALUES APPROACHING 1.0) AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH INTO THE NATURE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE
THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL RESIDE.

ONGOING CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS EXITS
RAPIDLY EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ON A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER
AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH REMAINDER
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL DRYING...WEAK WINDS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IT
APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WERE PROVIDED IN 18Z
TAFS...HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REVISITED IN 00Z TAFS GIVEN
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOME MORE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...NO CONCERNS AS WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 10
KNOTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM NORTH DOMINATING. MODERATE
SRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPR LEVEL
SYSTEM. THIS NEXT ASSOC SFC BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE WATERS
SUN LEADING TO WEAK FLOW ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES WILL DECREASE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST TONIGHT WILL
PROVIDE SMOKE MANAGEMENT/VISIBILITY CONCERNS FOR ANY SMOLDERING
FIRES. OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  50  69  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  59  76  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  48  71  49  71 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  50  70  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  70  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  55  69  55  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GITTINGER
LONG TERM...MCMICHAEL
MARINE...GARCIA





000
FXUS62 KTBW 171958
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
258 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE
FRONTAL MOVE LITTLE LITTLE ACROSS SRN AREAS UNTIL GETTING A SECOND
WIND AFTER NIGHTFALL WITH SOME VERY MODEST PRESSURE RISES. THIS WILL
FINALLY PROMPT BETTER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WEAK BOUNDARY
ONCE AGAIN HOWEVER FAR SOUTH COS STILL MAY NOT SEE A FROPA UNTIL
SEVERAL HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THINK LESS AGGRESSIVE DEWPOINT FALLS
ARE IN ORDER BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN WEAKNESS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
ABOVE NORMAL GROUND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND LIKE RAW MODEL
BLENDS OVER MOS FORECASTS FOR DEWPOINTS. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK
WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING (NOT TO MENTION 90-100% RH
CURRENT T/TD FORECAST PROVIDES) SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT...ESP IN TYPICAL SHELTERED/LOW LYING AREAS WHICH FAVOR
FOG. GIVEN THIS HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN FAVORED AREAS. A FEW PATCHY DENSE REPORTS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS RURAL AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
TRAVERSING GREAT LAKES/MID WEST WILL CONTINUE PROVIDE RIDGING ALL
THE WAY INTO FL THROUGH THU. THIS WILL PROMOTE LARGE DIURNAL RANGES
WITH HIGHS RECOVERING INTO THE UPR 60S NORTH AND LOW-MID 70S SOUTH
AFTER A MORNING WITH MOSTLY UPR 30S NORTH TO NEAR 50 SOUTH. WILL SEE
INCREASE IN JET CIRRUS FROM THE WEST ASSOC W/A 100+ KT JET STREAK
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/DEEP SOUTH. WILL INTRODUCE PCLDY SKIES TONIGHT
INTO THU ACROSS NRN HALF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT MIGHT EVEN BE THICK
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE MCDLY WORDING FOR WED.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT
WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
THIS SYSTEM BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES (POPS 20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO THE STATE. UNLIKE YESTERDAY MODELS ARE NOW IN
MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF NOW STALLING THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA ON SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW.

DURING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...WITH THIS WAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA EARLY ON MONDAY...THEN
OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING INTO THE 1.6 TO 1.8
INCH RANGE) POOLING ALONG THE STALLED FRONT WITHIN THE DEEP LAYERED
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURES WILL ALL AID IN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE REGION WITH
AN OVERRUNNING EVENT...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS STILL SUPPORTING POPS IN
THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH
INTO THE NATURE COAST.

DURING MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY BECOMING A FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH BY
EARLY TUESDAY. THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF COAST...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
DOES SO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST IT WILL INDUCE
YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER THE MS/TN VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WITH THIS
LOW THEN DEEPENING AND LIFTING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST TO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT (-12
TO -13C) SUPPORTING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
STORMS AS WELL. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ALSO SHOW A LOW LEVEL JET
(40-50 KNOT RANGE) MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA. THIS
JET COMBINED WITH THE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND INCREASING BULK SHEAR
(SHERB VALUES APPROACHING 1.0) AND STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
FROM THE BAY AREA NORTH INTO THE NATURE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE
THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL RESIDE.

ONGOING CONVECTION WILL QUICKLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT AND DEEP MOISTURE AXIS EXITS
RAPIDLY EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA ON A BREEZY NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER
AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL FALL BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS COOLER DRIER AIR MOVES IN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH REMAINDER
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE LOW
LEVEL DRYING...WEAK WINDS AND EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IT
APPEARS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WERE PROVIDED IN 18Z
TAFS...HOWEVER THIS WILL HAVE TO BE REVISITED IN 00Z TAFS GIVEN
INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOME MORE INTERIOR
LOCATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...NO CONCERNS AS WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW 10
KNOTS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM NORTH DOMINATING. MODERATE
SRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SAT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPR LEVEL
SYSTEM. THIS NEXT ASSOC SFC BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE WATERS
SUN LEADING TO WEAK FLOW ONCE AGAIN.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MIN RH VALUES WILL DECREASE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST TONIGHT WILL
PROVIDE SMOKE MANAGEMENT/VISIBILITY CONCERNS FOR ANY SMOLDERING
FIRES. OTHERWISE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  50  69  51  73 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  59  76  53  77 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  48  71  49  71 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  50  70  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  38  70  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  55  69  55  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GITTINGER
LONG TERM...MCMICHAEL
MARINE...GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KKEY 171947
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
247 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE JET STREAM REMAINS BUCKLED TO THE NORTH OF A MEAN
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WITHIN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE HIGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SEVERAL
TRUNCATED COLD FRONTS ARE OBSERVED SWINGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...SCRUBBING THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME. ONE SUCH FRONTAL SPOKE HAS
DECAYED INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. GENTLE TO
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL AT THE AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND
OBSERVING STATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 70S...AND
SKIES ARE SUNNY. THE 12Z KKEY RAOB OBSERVATION SAMPLED A DRY AND
STABLE COLUMN...TESTAMENT TO THE NEARLY STACKED ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO OUR NORTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHARACTERIZED BY GENTLE
NORTHEAST BREEZES...CLEAR SKIES...AND NIL RAIN CHANCES. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL PRESS EAST THROUGH TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE BRIEF UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE CONSENSUS
DEVELOPS A TRANSIENT GULF LOW WHICH QUICKLY TRACKS EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGING IS DISPLACED BY THE LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STEERING FLOW ASSUMES THIS MARITIME ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY)...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...A COMPLEX ARRAY OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE PATH TO THIS PATTERN
WILL BE UNCERTAIN. SEVERAL BEADS OF LOWER PRESSURE MAY TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FINAL
PATTERN WILL BE REALIZED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UNTIL THEN...INCREASED HUMIDITY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND NON-TRIVIAL RAIN CHANCES (10%).

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1961...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FOR THE DAY ONLY FELL TO 76 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY WARM LOW
RECORD FOR DECEMBER 17 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&


.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  64  75  65  76 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  64  75  65  76 / -  -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 171947
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
247 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE JET STREAM REMAINS BUCKLED TO THE NORTH OF A MEAN
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WITHIN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE HIGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SEVERAL
TRUNCATED COLD FRONTS ARE OBSERVED SWINGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...SCRUBBING THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME. ONE SUCH FRONTAL SPOKE HAS
DECAYED INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. GENTLE TO
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL AT THE AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND
OBSERVING STATIONS. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID 70S...AND
SKIES ARE SUNNY. THE 12Z KKEY RAOB OBSERVATION SAMPLED A DRY AND
STABLE COLUMN...TESTAMENT TO THE NEARLY STACKED ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION TO OUR NORTHWEST.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...DEEP LAYERED RIDGING
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CHARACTERIZED BY GENTLE
NORTHEAST BREEZES...CLEAR SKIES...AND NIL RAIN CHANCES. A SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE WILL PRESS EAST THROUGH TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO THE BRIEF UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE CONSENSUS
DEVELOPS A TRANSIENT GULF LOW WHICH QUICKLY TRACKS EAST INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. BREEZES WILL TURN TO THE EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGING IS DISPLACED BY THE LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STEERING FLOW ASSUMES THIS MARITIME ORIGIN.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THOUGH WEDNESDAY)...BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...A COMPLEX ARRAY OF SHORT WAVES WILL CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE PATH TO THIS PATTERN
WILL BE UNCERTAIN. SEVERAL BEADS OF LOWER PRESSURE MAY TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FINAL
PATTERN WILL BE REALIZED AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BLASTS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. UNTIL THEN...INCREASED HUMIDITY...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND NON-TRIVIAL RAIN CHANCES (10%).

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT...MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1961...THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FOR THE DAY ONLY FELL TO 76 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY WARM LOW
RECORD FOR DECEMBER 17 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&


.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  64  75  65  76 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  64  75  65  76 / -  -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 171915
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHALLOW GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE...HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET
OVERNIGHT BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI AFTN IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST FOR
AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO STAY FAIR AT BEST.
ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXISTING FIRES OR
SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW) PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM (6.50FT). PROTRACTED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW ACTION STAGE BY
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMLB 171915
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHALLOW GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE...HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET
OVERNIGHT BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI AFTN IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST FOR
AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO STAY FAIR AT BEST.
ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXISTING FIRES OR
SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW) PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM (6.50FT). PROTRACTED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW ACTION STAGE BY
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMLB 171915
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHALLOW GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE...HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET
OVERNIGHT BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI AFTN IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST FOR
AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO STAY FAIR AT BEST.
ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXISTING FIRES OR
SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW) PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM (6.50FT). PROTRACTED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW ACTION STAGE BY
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMLB 171915
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
215 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...

TONIGHT....BOUNDARY HAS WASHED OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WITH
WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST EXPECTED TO THIN AND CLEAR OUT BY THIS EVENING.
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. EXPECT SOME SEMBLANCE OF A SEA BREEZE TO PUSH
INLAND...ALLOWING A WEAK ONSHORE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ALONG OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR
70 ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FORECAST
WITH ZONAL FLOW DOMINATING THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI BEFORE IT IS SHUNTED
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FRI OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS ON THU/THU NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD FRI-FRI NIGHT REACHING THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING. A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
EXTEND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW. INITIAL LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND
EVENTUALLY SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FRI...STARTING TO
WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI NIGHT.

SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE
TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE SRN TIER STATES. AN
H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO
DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX
WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS WHILE ITS ORIENTATION
IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT. FURTHERMORE...AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC... IT WILL DEFLECT THE
SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR/VOLUSIA COAST AND
U50S TO M60S ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHALLOW GROUND
FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS A FEW OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE
SUNRISE...HOWEVER...NO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WEAK RIDGING WILL KEEP A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2 - 3 FEET
OVERNIGHT BECOMING AT OR BELOW 2 FEET THURSDAY.

THU NIGHT...LIGHT NW FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 5-10 KTS. SEAS AOB
3 FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WEAKENS WITH THE APPROACH OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FRI OVERNIGHT. NNW/N MORNING WINDS WILL VEER TO
NE/E THRU THE AFTERNOON...THEN SE/S OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
MAINTAIN AOB 10 KTS DURING THE DAY AND 7-12 KTS FRI NIGHT. SEAS
CONTINUE AOB 3 FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL WEAKEN AND RACE ENE. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COOL FRONT WILL
MAKE PROGRESS INTO NORTH FL BY LATE IN THE DAY AND PERHAPS AS FAR AS
N/C FL BY DAYBREAK SUN MORNING. S WINDS NEAR 12 KTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLC WILL VEER SSW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WIND
SPEEDS STILL AVERAGING 7-12 KTS AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT. SEAS
AOB 2 FT NEAR SHORE AND TO 2-3 FT SAT AFTN/NIGHT.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FORECAST STILL HINGES ON EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH
DURING THIS PERIOD THE FRONT IS ABLE TO PENETRATE. FIRST GUESS IS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. EXPECT SW/WSW WINDS SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT BEHIND IT. SEAS
STILL AOB 3 FT. WIND SPEEDS STILL 6-12 KTS AT BEST. GREATEST SHOWER
CHANCES NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST AT
THE PRESENT TIME FOR SUN AND UP TO 40 PERCENT NORTH OF THE CAPE
SUN NIGHT. NO TSRA CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE UNTIL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...PERHAPS SOME LOW RH`S THU-FRI AFTN IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S (INTERIOR)...BUT A BUMP UP IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST FOR
AFTERNOON RHS THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DISPERSION INDICES LOOK TO STAY FAIR AT BEST.
ONLY VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND EXISTING FIRES OR
SMOLDERING BURNS FOR SOME EARLY MORNING (SHALLOW) PATCHY FOG.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO ACTION STAGE AT 6.50 FT AS OF 2 PM (6.50FT). PROTRACTED
DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW ACTION STAGE BY
TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  67  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  47  70  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  49  69  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  47  71  48  72 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  44  68  47  69 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  47  69  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  47  69  51  71 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  50  70  47  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMFL 171733 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND PASSING THE
KAPF TAF SITE. THEREFORE...THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY THROUGH 23Z AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES SHOULD STILL SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 20Z AND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

AVIATION...BNB/SK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  61  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  78  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           56  73  56  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171733 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND PASSING THE
KAPF TAF SITE. THEREFORE...THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY THROUGH 23Z AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES SHOULD STILL SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 20Z AND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

AVIATION...BNB/SK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  61  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  78  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           56  73  56  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171733 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND PASSING THE
KAPF TAF SITE. THEREFORE...THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY THROUGH 23Z AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES SHOULD STILL SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 20Z AND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

AVIATION...BNB/SK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  61  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  78  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           56  73  56  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171733 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND PASSING THE
KAPF TAF SITE. THEREFORE...THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY THROUGH 23Z AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES SHOULD STILL SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 20Z AND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

AVIATION...BNB/SK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  61  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  78  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           56  73  56  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KTAE 171533
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Seasonably cool airmass will settle over the region today in the
wake of yesterdays frontal passage. Mostly clear skies with highs
in the lower to mid 60s are on tap this afternoon. With current
forecast on track, no significant changes are planned this
morning.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions and light winds will prevail
through the forecast period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [425 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain
tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just
below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low
to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region
ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the
airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be
possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida
Panhandle and Southern Alabama.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving
through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this
system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave
will weaken with time while passing through the Southern
Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge
considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first
storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance
rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds
the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central
Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this
same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion
of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a
significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS
late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled
frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with
the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy
rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference
between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between
these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a
more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max
temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December.


.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days
before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a
developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and
seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are
not anticipated at this time.


.Fire Weather...
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low
for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative
humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns.


.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  38  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   63  43  65  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        62  40  63  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        62  37  64  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      64  37  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    67  36  68  41  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  42  63  47  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 171533
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Seasonably cool airmass will settle over the region today in the
wake of yesterdays frontal passage. Mostly clear skies with highs
in the lower to mid 60s are on tap this afternoon. With current
forecast on track, no significant changes are planned this
morning.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions and light winds will prevail
through the forecast period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [425 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain
tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just
below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low
to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region
ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the
airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be
possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida
Panhandle and Southern Alabama.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving
through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this
system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave
will weaken with time while passing through the Southern
Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge
considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first
storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance
rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds
the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central
Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this
same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion
of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a
significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS
late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled
frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with
the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy
rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference
between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between
these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a
more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max
temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December.


.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days
before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a
developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and
seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are
not anticipated at this time.


.Fire Weather...
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low
for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative
humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns.


.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  38  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   63  43  65  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        62  40  63  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        62  37  64  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      64  37  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    67  36  68  41  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  42  63  47  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 171533
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Seasonably cool airmass will settle over the region today in the
wake of yesterdays frontal passage. Mostly clear skies with highs
in the lower to mid 60s are on tap this afternoon. With current
forecast on track, no significant changes are planned this
morning.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions and light winds will prevail
through the forecast period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [425 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain
tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just
below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low
to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region
ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the
airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be
possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida
Panhandle and Southern Alabama.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving
through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this
system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave
will weaken with time while passing through the Southern
Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge
considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first
storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance
rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds
the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central
Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this
same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion
of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a
significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS
late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled
frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with
the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy
rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference
between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between
these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a
more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max
temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December.


.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days
before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a
developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and
seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are
not anticipated at this time.


.Fire Weather...
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low
for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative
humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns.


.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  38  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   63  43  65  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        62  40  63  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        62  37  64  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      64  37  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    67  36  68  41  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  42  63  47  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KTAE 171533
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1033 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Seasonably cool airmass will settle over the region today in the
wake of yesterdays frontal passage. Mostly clear skies with highs
in the lower to mid 60s are on tap this afternoon. With current
forecast on track, no significant changes are planned this
morning.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions and light winds will prevail
through the forecast period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [425 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain
tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just
below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low
to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region
ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the
airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be
possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida
Panhandle and Southern Alabama.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving
through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this
system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave
will weaken with time while passing through the Southern
Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge
considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first
storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance
rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds
the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central
Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this
same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion
of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a
significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS
late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled
frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with
the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy
rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference
between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between
these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a
more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max
temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December.


.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days
before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a
developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and
seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are
not anticipated at this time.


.Fire Weather...
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low
for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative
humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns.


.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  38  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   63  43  65  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        62  40  63  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        62  37  64  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      64  37  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    67  36  68  41  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  42  63  47  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KKEY 171527
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE JET STREAM IS BUCKLED TO THE NORTH OF A MEAN
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WITHIN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE HIGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SEVERAL
TRUNCATED COLD FRONTS ARE OBSERVED SWINGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...BRUSHING THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME. ONE SUCH FRONTAL SPOKE IS
SKIMMING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THIS FRONT HAS DECAYED INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. GENTLE TO LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL AT THE
AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND OBSERVING STATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...AND SKIES ARE BRIGHT AND BLUE. THE 12Z
KKEY RAOB OBSERVATION SAMPLED A DRY AND STABLE COLUMN...TESTAMENT TO
THE NEARLY STACKED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IMMEDIATELY TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

.FORECAST...LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY
WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
NIL. THE CURRENT FORECAST REASONING ACROSS THE LAND AND MARINE ZONES
IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATED NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2006...1.07
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD FOR DECEMBER 17 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KKEY 171527
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1027 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...THE JET STREAM IS BUCKLED TO THE NORTH OF A MEAN
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED WITHIN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE HIGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. SEVERAL
TRUNCATED COLD FRONTS ARE OBSERVED SWINGING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...BRUSHING THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE DOME. ONE SUCH FRONTAL SPOKE IS
SKIMMING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THIS FRONT HAS DECAYED INTO A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA. GENTLE TO LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL AT THE
AVAILABLE MARINE AND LAND OBSERVING STATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE
CLIMBING THROUGH THE 60S...AND SKIES ARE BRIGHT AND BLUE. THE 12Z
KKEY RAOB OBSERVATION SAMPLED A DRY AND STABLE COLUMN...TESTAMENT TO
THE NEARLY STACKED ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IMMEDIATELY TO OUR
NORTHWEST.

.FORECAST...LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY
WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
NIL. THE CURRENT FORECAST REASONING ACROSS THE LAND AND MARINE ZONES
IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATED NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2006...1.07
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD FOR DECEMBER 17 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KTBW 171526 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1026 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARING A ISM TO SPG LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH SLOWLY THROUGH THE AFTN. AS IT DOES...THE
NARROW 2-3 COUNTY WIDE BAND OF BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTH AS
WELL ALTHOUGH MIXING...DECREASING MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE WILL
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO THINING/SCT OUT AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OF
THIS LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS IT APPROACHES LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
OVERNIGHT WILL BEGIN TO SEE ENOUGH HIGH CIRRUS FROM THE WEST TO
INDICATE A LOW END PCLDY SKY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SLOW
DISSIPATION OF THE CLOUD DECK PER TRENDS...OTHERWISE NOT REAL
UPDATES ARE REQUIRED ATTM.

&&

AVIATION...NARROW CLOUD BAND IS PROVIDING MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
SMALL PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS WILL IMPACT PGD BUT ENOUGH
MIXING/HEATING WITH RAISING BASES IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CIGS
ABOVE MVFR LEVELS WHEN THESE CLOUDS REACH FMY AREA. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESP SOUTH BUT IS NOT INDICATED IN CURRENT
TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SO FAR THIS BOUNDARY HAS
HELPED TO PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING A VERY BIG ISSUE WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME PATCHES HERE AND THERE WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NATURE COAST AND
WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT
REACHING A LINE FROM AROUND SARASOTA TO FROSTPROOF BY SUNRISE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE HERE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 60S FAR NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE GULF COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW INLAND
AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
FLORIDA. RATHER LIGHT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING SOME
COOLER DRIER AIR INTO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE
COAST TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT
TO BECOME A BIG PROBLEM. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE GULF COAST.

MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD BE HEADING OUR WAY.
THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED ITS PREVIOUS IDEA OF BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. IT IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN THE STEADIER MODEL SHOWING THE FRONT
STALLING SOMEWHERE ACROSS FLORIDA. ALL OF THIS HINGES ON A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. BOTH OF
THESE GLOBAL MODELS NOW DAMPEN THE WAVE OUT TO THE POINT WHERE
THERE IS NO SUPPORT LEFT FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS THE FRONT FARTHEST SOUTH...BUT
STILL NOT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY RESULTING IN
AN OVER-RUNNING PATTERN. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHERE THE BULK OF
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR NOW PUTS IT NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WHOLE MESS TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY...BUT THIS IS STILL BEYOND OUR 7 DAY FORECAST AND CERTAINLY
NOT ETCHED IN STONE.

AS FAR AS THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST GO...FRIDAY AND EVEN MOST OF
SATURDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH ON SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY AS THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER FLORIDA...BUT WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.

ITS NOT UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL RE-ENERGIZE THE BOUNDARY. WE ARE LOOKING AT A
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NATURE COAST. THE TIMING AND EVEN
LOCATION COULD CHANGE...BUT MODELS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO LEND SOME
CONFIDENCE FOR A WET START TO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN
FOG...BUT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND RSW
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT.

MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND IT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  51  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  77  54  76  53 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  73  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  73  49  70  50 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  70  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  72  53  69  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...88/GITTINGER
MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT...20/BARRON





000
FXUS62 KJAX 171519
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1019 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE (1031 MILLIBARS) WAS
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS
LOCALLY...AS OUR REGION IS BETWEEN A ROBUST RIDGE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES.
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND THE MORNING SOUNDINGS AT JACKSONVILLE AND
TALLAHASSEE SHOW THAT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION. HIGH CIRRUS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES WILL
NOT ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH NEAR CLIMO FOR
MID-DECEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WILL DROP LOWS OVERNIGHT TO BELOW CLIMO...WITH MID TO
UPPER 30S EXPECTED INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST.
FROST FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 5000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE...SO WE
DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IN THE
MORNING UPDATE. BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH
OFFSHORE NORTHWEST WINDS OF NEAR OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING
ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE UP TO
AROUND 60-62 DEGREES OVER WATER TEMPS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
BUT TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT FCSTS. THEN...A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF
THE WATERS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  37  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  61  43  61  47 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  65  41  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  45  65  50 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  67  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  69  39  68  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/CORDERO/WALSH









000
FXUS62 KJAX 171519
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1019 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE (1031 MILLIBARS) WAS
CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS
LOCALLY...AS OUR REGION IS BETWEEN A ROBUST RIDGE CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA AND BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES.
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND THE MORNING SOUNDINGS AT JACKSONVILLE AND
TALLAHASSEE SHOW THAT A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD OUR
REGION. HIGH CIRRUS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES WILL
NOT ARRIVE INTO OUR AREA UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH NEAR CLIMO FOR
MID-DECEMBER...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WITH UPPER 60S
EXPECTED IN NORTH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. RADIATIONAL COOLING
THIS EVENING WILL DROP LOWS OVERNIGHT TO BELOW CLIMO...WITH MID TO
UPPER 30S EXPECTED INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST.
FROST FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 5000 FEET.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE...SO WE
DISCONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE IN THE
MORNING UPDATE. BENIGN CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRI...WITH
OFFSHORE NORTHWEST WINDS OF NEAR OR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS BECOMING
ONSHORE ON FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE UP TO
AROUND 60-62 DEGREES OVER WATER TEMPS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
BUT TOO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT FCSTS. THEN...A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
STALL ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF
THE WATERS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE GULF COAST REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  37  64  41 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  61  43  61  47 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  65  41  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  45  65  50 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  67  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  69  39  68  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

NELSON/CORDERO/WALSH








000
FXUS62 KMLB 171335
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
835 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SHALLOW AND RATHER UNEVENTFUL FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR A LINE STRETCHING FROM MELBOURNE TO KISSIMMEE...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TODAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

THE FRONT HAS LITTLE REASON TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY
TODAY GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION TO A MINIMUM. LITTLE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE TO OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND, SKY, AND TEMPERATURE
GRIDS...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA PRODUCING
SOME MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILING REDUCTIONS. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHERLY AS DAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...SW-WSW WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND DECREASING TO AROUND
10KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CRITICAL WIND/LOW RH CONCERNS INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO THE LOWER 6.53FT...JUST ABOVE THE LOWER END OF ACTION
STAGE (6.50FT). PROTRACTED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO
DROP BELOW ACTION STAGE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  73  48  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  73  48  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  75  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  70  46  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  71  48  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  73  48  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  74  49  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM FORECAST...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM FORECAST....SEDLOCK





000
FXUS62 KMLB 171335
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
835 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SHALLOW AND RATHER UNEVENTFUL FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY SITUATED
NEAR A LINE STRETCHING FROM MELBOURNE TO KISSIMMEE...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH TODAY BEFORE WASHING OUT AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

THE FRONT HAS LITTLE REASON TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA QUICKLY
TODAY GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP COOL AND DRY AIR
ADVECTION TO A MINIMUM. LITTLE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE TO OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.

ASIDE FROM SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND, SKY, AND TEMPERATURE
GRIDS...FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG AND BEHIND A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA PRODUCING
SOME MVFR VISIBILITY/CEILING REDUCTIONS. EXPECT THIS TO BURN OFF
FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA AS DAYTIME HEATING COMMENCES.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO MORE NORTHERLY AS DAY
PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...SW-WSW WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND DECREASING TO AROUND
10KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CRITICAL WIND/LOW RH CONCERNS INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO THE LOWER 6.53FT...JUST ABOVE THE LOWER END OF ACTION
STAGE (6.50FT). PROTRACTED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO
DROP BELOW ACTION STAGE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  73  48  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  73  48  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  75  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  70  46  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  71  48  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  73  48  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  74  49  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM FORECAST...ULRICH
IMPACT WX/LONG TERM FORECAST....SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171141 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&
.AVIATION...BNB/SK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  61  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  78  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           56  73  56  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171141 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&
.AVIATION...BNB/SK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  61  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  78  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           56  73  56  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171141 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&
.AVIATION...BNB/SK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  61  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  78  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           56  73  56  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171141 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&
.AVIATION...BNB/SK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  61  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  78  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           56  73  56  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KKEY 171138
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
638 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
...17/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OF
EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS FROM
NORTHERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHOULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH THE DAYTIME...BUT WINDS THROUGH 5KFT SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.


&&

$$

AVIATION...MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 171138
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
638 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
...17/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS OF
EYW AND MTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A GRADUAL VEERING OF WINDS FROM
NORTHERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHOULD BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH THE DAYTIME...BUT WINDS THROUGH 5KFT SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.


&&

$$

AVIATION...MSB

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 170925
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
425 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
After a very warm day across the region on Tuesday where high temps
shot up into the mid to upper 70s in many locations (highs which
were 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year), a cold
front continues to push southeastward through our area tonight. A
ridge of high pressure behind this front will give us plenty of
sunshine today, but high temps will return right back to normal
levels, which are the lower to middle 60s for mid December. It will
still be a fairly pleasant day for outdoor activities, however, as
winds will be light out of the N and NW.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain
tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just
below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low
to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region
ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the
airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be
possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida
Panhandle and Southern Alabama.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving
through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this
system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave
will weaken with time while passing through the Southern
Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge
considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first
storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance
rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds
the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central
Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this
same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion
of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a
significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS
late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled
frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with
the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy
rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference
between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between
these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a
more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max
temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Very simplistic aviation forecast over the
next 24 hours, as a very thin patch of cirrus moves through the
terminals overnight behind the passing cold front. Unlimited VFR
conditions with light winds are expected for at least the entire
period.

&&

.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days
before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a
developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and
seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are
not anticipated at this time.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low
for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative
humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  38  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   63  43  65  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        62  40  63  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        62  37  64  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      64  37  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    67  36  68  41  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  42  63  47  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY




000
FXUS62 KTAE 170925
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
425 AM EST Wed Dec 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
After a very warm day across the region on Tuesday where high temps
shot up into the mid to upper 70s in many locations (highs which
were 10 to 15 degrees above normal for this time of year), a cold
front continues to push southeastward through our area tonight. A
ridge of high pressure behind this front will give us plenty of
sunshine today, but high temps will return right back to normal
levels, which are the lower to middle 60s for mid December. It will
still be a fairly pleasant day for outdoor activities, however, as
winds will be light out of the N and NW.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
High pressure in place over the region tonight will maintain
tranquil weather through at least Thursday. Highs will be just
below normal levels on Thursday with values generally in the low
to mid 60s. By Friday, high pressure will move east of the region
ahead of a developing storm system across the Western Gulf. As the
airmass over the region moistens, a few light showers will be
possible late in the afternoon primarily across the Florida
Panhandle and Southern Alabama.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Models are in fair agreement with the first storm system moving
through the region on Friday night into Saturday. Overall, this
system should remain on the weak side as the associated shortwave
will weaken with time while passing through the Southern
Appalachians. Late in the weekend, the GFS and Euro diverge
considerably. The Euro stalls the surface boundary from the first
storm system across North Central Florida, which serves to enhance
rain chances Monday-Tuesday as a southern stream impulse rounds
the base of a steadily amplifying trough across the Central
Plains. The GFS is more progressive and thus less active over this
same timeframe. Even more uncertainty exists by the latter portion
of the forecast period. While both the GFS and Euro show a
significant amplification of the pattern across the Eastern CONUS
late in the period, differences in how they handle the stalled
frontal boundary impact greatly the forecast for Wednesday, with
the GFS being generally much drier and the Euro indicating a heavy
rainfall threat across the region. Given the large difference
between the two models, opted for a blend essentially between
these two outcomes late in the period. With the potential for a
more unsettled long term period with cloudier conditions, kept max
temperatures a few degrees below climatology for late December.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] Very simplistic aviation forecast over the
next 24 hours, as a very thin patch of cirrus moves through the
terminals overnight behind the passing cold front. Unlimited VFR
conditions with light winds are expected for at least the entire
period.

&&

.Marine...
Light winds and low seas will continue for the next couple of days
before winds shift to east and then to the south ahead of a
developing storm system on Friday. While an increase in winds and
seas is expected on Friday and Saturday, headline conditions are
not anticipated at this time.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Temperature and dewpoint spreads are expected to remain quite low
for the next several days. This will keep afternoon relative
humidities well away from any Red Flag concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   64  38  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   63  43  65  48  65 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        62  40  63  43  63 /   0   0   0  10  30
Albany        62  37  64  41  66 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      64  37  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    67  36  68  41  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  63  42  63  47  65 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KKEY 170924
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
424 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL EARLY MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 60S
AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ALL REPORTING LAND AND WATERS STATIONS
INDICATING AIR TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 60F AND 70F. BOTH SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
NARROW AND SKIMPY BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS EVIDENT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WELL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KEYS.
THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...FEATURING A SUBTLE RIDGE NORTH OF THE KEYS. THIS PATTERN
IS MAINTAINING THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES OVER MOST OF THE
SERVICE AREA. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...A SUBTLE WIND SURGE HAS
PUSHED ACROSS FLORIDA BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND ADJACENT
WATERS. WINDS GUSTED BRIEFLY TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF...
LONG KEY...AND SOMBRERO KEY.

THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FEATURES A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...MULTI-STREAM FLOW WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND
PRIMARILY ZONAL WESTERLIES DOMINATING THE SUBTROPICS...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...RESULTING
IN LITTLE MERIDIONAL FLOW AT OUR LATITUDE. STORM TRACKS WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WARM OR COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE SLOWLY...BUT GRADUALLY...DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE PROMOTES WARMING OF NEARSHORE
WATERS AND RESULTANT MODIFICATION OF THE OVERLYING SURFACE AIR MASS
PROPERTIES. SUFFICIENT HEAT AND MOISTURE SHOULD ACCUMULATE IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE DIGITAL AND
DERIVED FORECASTS FOR THIS CYCLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...OR HEADLINES. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH SEAS
BELOW 4 FEET. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.CLIMATE...
DECEMBER 17 - ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN
1956...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  64  75  65 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  75  64  75  65 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 170924
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
424 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL EARLY MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 60S
AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ALL REPORTING LAND AND WATERS STATIONS
INDICATING AIR TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 60F AND 70F. BOTH SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
NARROW AND SKIMPY BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS EVIDENT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WELL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KEYS.
THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...FEATURING A SUBTLE RIDGE NORTH OF THE KEYS. THIS PATTERN
IS MAINTAINING THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES OVER MOST OF THE
SERVICE AREA. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...A SUBTLE WIND SURGE HAS
PUSHED ACROSS FLORIDA BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND ADJACENT
WATERS. WINDS GUSTED BRIEFLY TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF...
LONG KEY...AND SOMBRERO KEY.

THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FEATURES A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...MULTI-STREAM FLOW WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND
PRIMARILY ZONAL WESTERLIES DOMINATING THE SUBTROPICS...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...RESULTING
IN LITTLE MERIDIONAL FLOW AT OUR LATITUDE. STORM TRACKS WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WARM OR COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE SLOWLY...BUT GRADUALLY...DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE PROMOTES WARMING OF NEARSHORE
WATERS AND RESULTANT MODIFICATION OF THE OVERLYING SURFACE AIR MASS
PROPERTIES. SUFFICIENT HEAT AND MOISTURE SHOULD ACCUMULATE IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE DIGITAL AND
DERIVED FORECASTS FOR THIS CYCLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...OR HEADLINES. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH SEAS
BELOW 4 FEET. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.CLIMATE...
DECEMBER 17 - ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN
1956...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  64  75  65 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  75  64  75  65 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 170924
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
424 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL EARLY MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 60S
AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ALL REPORTING LAND AND WATERS STATIONS
INDICATING AIR TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 60F AND 70F. BOTH SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
NARROW AND SKIMPY BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS EVIDENT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WELL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KEYS.
THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...FEATURING A SUBTLE RIDGE NORTH OF THE KEYS. THIS PATTERN
IS MAINTAINING THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES OVER MOST OF THE
SERVICE AREA. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...A SUBTLE WIND SURGE HAS
PUSHED ACROSS FLORIDA BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND ADJACENT
WATERS. WINDS GUSTED BRIEFLY TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF...
LONG KEY...AND SOMBRERO KEY.

THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FEATURES A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...MULTI-STREAM FLOW WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND
PRIMARILY ZONAL WESTERLIES DOMINATING THE SUBTROPICS...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...RESULTING
IN LITTLE MERIDIONAL FLOW AT OUR LATITUDE. STORM TRACKS WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WARM OR COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE SLOWLY...BUT GRADUALLY...DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE PROMOTES WARMING OF NEARSHORE
WATERS AND RESULTANT MODIFICATION OF THE OVERLYING SURFACE AIR MASS
PROPERTIES. SUFFICIENT HEAT AND MOISTURE SHOULD ACCUMULATE IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE DIGITAL AND
DERIVED FORECASTS FOR THIS CYCLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...OR HEADLINES. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH SEAS
BELOW 4 FEET. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.CLIMATE...
DECEMBER 17 - ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN
1956...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  64  75  65 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  75  64  75  65 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 170924
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
424 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL EARLY MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 60S
AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ALL REPORTING LAND AND WATERS STATIONS
INDICATING AIR TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 60F AND 70F. BOTH SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
NARROW AND SKIMPY BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS EVIDENT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WELL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KEYS.
THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...FEATURING A SUBTLE RIDGE NORTH OF THE KEYS. THIS PATTERN
IS MAINTAINING THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES OVER MOST OF THE
SERVICE AREA. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...A SUBTLE WIND SURGE HAS
PUSHED ACROSS FLORIDA BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND ADJACENT
WATERS. WINDS GUSTED BRIEFLY TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF...
LONG KEY...AND SOMBRERO KEY.

THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FEATURES A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...MULTI-STREAM FLOW WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND
PRIMARILY ZONAL WESTERLIES DOMINATING THE SUBTROPICS...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...RESULTING
IN LITTLE MERIDIONAL FLOW AT OUR LATITUDE. STORM TRACKS WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WARM OR COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE SLOWLY...BUT GRADUALLY...DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE PROMOTES WARMING OF NEARSHORE
WATERS AND RESULTANT MODIFICATION OF THE OVERLYING SURFACE AIR MASS
PROPERTIES. SUFFICIENT HEAT AND MOISTURE SHOULD ACCUMULATE IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE DIGITAL AND
DERIVED FORECASTS FOR THIS CYCLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...OR HEADLINES. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH SEAS
BELOW 4 FEET. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.CLIMATE...
DECEMBER 17 - ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN
1956...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  64  75  65 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  75  64  75  65 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 170924
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
424 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL EARLY MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 60S
AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ALL REPORTING LAND AND WATERS STATIONS
INDICATING AIR TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 60F AND 70F. BOTH SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
NARROW AND SKIMPY BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS EVIDENT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WELL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KEYS.
THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...FEATURING A SUBTLE RIDGE NORTH OF THE KEYS. THIS PATTERN
IS MAINTAINING THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES OVER MOST OF THE
SERVICE AREA. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...A SUBTLE WIND SURGE HAS
PUSHED ACROSS FLORIDA BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND ADJACENT
WATERS. WINDS GUSTED BRIEFLY TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF...
LONG KEY...AND SOMBRERO KEY.

THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FEATURES A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...MULTI-STREAM FLOW WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND
PRIMARILY ZONAL WESTERLIES DOMINATING THE SUBTROPICS...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...RESULTING
IN LITTLE MERIDIONAL FLOW AT OUR LATITUDE. STORM TRACKS WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WARM OR COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE SLOWLY...BUT GRADUALLY...DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE PROMOTES WARMING OF NEARSHORE
WATERS AND RESULTANT MODIFICATION OF THE OVERLYING SURFACE AIR MASS
PROPERTIES. SUFFICIENT HEAT AND MOISTURE SHOULD ACCUMULATE IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE DIGITAL AND
DERIVED FORECASTS FOR THIS CYCLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...OR HEADLINES. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH SEAS
BELOW 4 FEET. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.CLIMATE...
DECEMBER 17 - ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN
1956...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  64  75  65 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  75  64  75  65 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 170924
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
424 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CLEAR AND COOL EARLY MORNING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS. CURRENTLY...AIR TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY IN THE MID 60S
AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH ALL REPORTING LAND AND WATERS STATIONS
INDICATING AIR TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 60F AND 70F. BOTH SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. A
NARROW AND SKIMPY BAND OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS IS EVIDENT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WELL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KEYS.
THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN IS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...FEATURING A SUBTLE RIDGE NORTH OF THE KEYS. THIS PATTERN
IS MAINTAINING THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES OVER MOST OF THE
SERVICE AREA. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...A SUBTLE WIND SURGE HAS
PUSHED ACROSS FLORIDA BAY AND PORTIONS OF THE UPPER KEYS AND ADJACENT
WATERS. WINDS GUSTED BRIEFLY TO NEAR 15 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF...
LONG KEY...AND SOMBRERO KEY.

THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA FEATURES A FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE...MULTI-STREAM FLOW WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE HEIGHTS AND
PRIMARILY ZONAL WESTERLIES DOMINATING THE SUBTROPICS...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...RESULTING
IN LITTLE MERIDIONAL FLOW AT OUR LATITUDE. STORM TRACKS WILL REMAIN
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY...WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WARM OR COLD THERMAL ADVECTION. BOTH TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE SLOWLY...BUT GRADUALLY...DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE PROMOTES WARMING OF NEARSHORE
WATERS AND RESULTANT MODIFICATION OF THE OVERLYING SURFACE AIR MASS
PROPERTIES. SUFFICIENT HEAT AND MOISTURE SHOULD ACCUMULATE IN THE
ATMOSPHERIC BOUNDARY LAYER TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS BY SOMETIME
THIS WEEKEND. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE DIGITAL AND
DERIVED FORECASTS FOR THIS CYCLE.
&&

.MARINE...
NO WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...OR HEADLINES. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...BEFORE SHIFTING SOUTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS...WITH SEAS
BELOW 4 FEET. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH EARLY...AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.CLIMATE...
DECEMBER 17 - ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE HISTORY...IN
1956...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS LAST RECORDED.
TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  75  64  75  65 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  75  64  75  65 / -  -  -  -
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....MSB

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 170907
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
407 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SO FAR THIS BOUNDARY HAS
HELPED TO PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING A VERY BIG ISSUE WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME PATCHES HERE AND THERE WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NATURE COAST AND
WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT
REACHING A LINE FROM AROUND SARASOTA TO FROSTPROOF BY SUNRISE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE HERE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 60S FAR NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE GULF COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW INLAND
AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
FLORIDA. RATHER LIGHT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING SOME
COOLER DRIER AIR INTO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE
COAST TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT
TO BECOME A BIG PROBLEM. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE GULF COAST.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD BE HEADING OUR WAY.
THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED ITS PREVIOUS IDEA OF BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. IT IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN THE STEADIER MODEL SHOWING THE FRONT
STALLING SOMEWHERE ACROSS FLORIDA. ALL OF THIS HINGES ON A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. BOTH OF
THESE GLOBAL MODELS NOW DAMPEN THE WAVE OUT TO THE POINT WHERE
THERE IS NO SUPPORT LEFT FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS THE FRONT FARTHEST SOUTH...BUT
STILL NOT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY RESULTING IN
AN OVER-RUNNING PATTERN. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHERE THE BULK OF
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR NOW PUTS IT NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WHOLE MESS TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY...BUT THIS IS STILL BEYOND OUR 7 DAY FORECAST AND CERTAINLY
NOT ETCHED IN STONE.

AS FAR AS THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST GO...FRIDAY AND EVEN MOST OF
SATURDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH ON SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY AS THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER FLORIDA...BUT WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.

ITS NOT UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL RE-ENERGIZE THE BOUNDARY. WE ARE LOOKING AT A
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NATURE COAST. THE TIMING AND EVEN
LOCATION COULD CHANGE...BUT MODELS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO LEND SOME
CONFIDENCE FOR A WET START TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN
FOG...BUT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND RSW
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND IT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  51  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  77  54  76  53 /   5   0   0   0
GIF  73  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  73  49  70  50 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  70  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  72  56  68  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON





000
FXUS62 KTBW 170907
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
407 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SO FAR THIS BOUNDARY HAS
HELPED TO PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING A VERY BIG ISSUE WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME PATCHES HERE AND THERE WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NATURE COAST AND
WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT
REACHING A LINE FROM AROUND SARASOTA TO FROSTPROOF BY SUNRISE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE HERE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 60S FAR NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE GULF COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW INLAND
AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
FLORIDA. RATHER LIGHT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING SOME
COOLER DRIER AIR INTO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE
COAST TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT
TO BECOME A BIG PROBLEM. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE GULF COAST.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD BE HEADING OUR WAY.
THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED ITS PREVIOUS IDEA OF BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. IT IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN THE STEADIER MODEL SHOWING THE FRONT
STALLING SOMEWHERE ACROSS FLORIDA. ALL OF THIS HINGES ON A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. BOTH OF
THESE GLOBAL MODELS NOW DAMPEN THE WAVE OUT TO THE POINT WHERE
THERE IS NO SUPPORT LEFT FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS THE FRONT FARTHEST SOUTH...BUT
STILL NOT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY RESULTING IN
AN OVER-RUNNING PATTERN. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHERE THE BULK OF
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR NOW PUTS IT NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WHOLE MESS TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY...BUT THIS IS STILL BEYOND OUR 7 DAY FORECAST AND CERTAINLY
NOT ETCHED IN STONE.

AS FAR AS THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST GO...FRIDAY AND EVEN MOST OF
SATURDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH ON SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY AS THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER FLORIDA...BUT WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.

ITS NOT UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL RE-ENERGIZE THE BOUNDARY. WE ARE LOOKING AT A
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NATURE COAST. THE TIMING AND EVEN
LOCATION COULD CHANGE...BUT MODELS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO LEND SOME
CONFIDENCE FOR A WET START TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN
FOG...BUT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND RSW
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND IT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  51  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  77  54  76  53 /   5   0   0   0
GIF  73  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  73  49  70  50 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  70  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  72  56  68  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON





000
FXUS62 KTBW 170907
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
407 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A BROKEN BAND OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SO FAR THIS BOUNDARY HAS
HELPED TO PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING A VERY BIG ISSUE WITH
MAINLY JUST SOME PATCHES HERE AND THERE WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND
WINDS ARE LIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY OVER THE NATURE COAST AND
WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. FOR THE REST OF THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WITH THE FRONT
REACHING A LINE FROM AROUND SARASOTA TO FROSTPROOF BY SUNRISE. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE DAY
EVENTUALLY WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ZONES WE WILL SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE HERE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS...BUT OVERALL SHOULD SEE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER 60S FAR NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE CLOSE
TO THE GULF COAST WHERE WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BELOW INLAND
AREAS.

FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. WITH RATHER ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
FLORIDA. RATHER LIGHT LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING SOME
COOLER DRIER AIR INTO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATURE
COAST TO THE MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST UNDER MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN...BUT NOT EXPECTING IT
TO BECOME A BIG PROBLEM. THURSDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO MID 70S SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE GULF COAST.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD BE HEADING OUR WAY.
THE ECMWF HAS ABANDONED ITS PREVIOUS IDEA OF BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. IT IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN THE STEADIER MODEL SHOWING THE FRONT
STALLING SOMEWHERE ACROSS FLORIDA. ALL OF THIS HINGES ON A SHORT-
WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. BOTH OF
THESE GLOBAL MODELS NOW DAMPEN THE WAVE OUT TO THE POINT WHERE
THERE IS NO SUPPORT LEFT FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS THE FRONT FARTHEST SOUTH...BUT
STILL NOT ENTIRELY THROUGH THE STATE. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ON MONDAY RESULTING IN
AN OVER-RUNNING PATTERN. IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WHERE THE BULK OF
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR NOW PUTS IT NORTH OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PUSH THE WHOLE MESS TO
OUR SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR CHRISTMAS
DAY...BUT THIS IS STILL BEYOND OUR 7 DAY FORECAST AND CERTAINLY
NOT ETCHED IN STONE.

AS FAR AS THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST GO...FRIDAY AND EVEN MOST OF
SATURDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
MAINLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTH ON SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ON SUNDAY AS THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER FLORIDA...BUT WE WILL BE UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP RAIN
CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.

ITS NOT UNTIL AFTER THE WEEKEND THAT THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST WILL RE-ENERGIZE THE BOUNDARY. WE ARE LOOKING AT A
36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NATURE COAST. THE TIMING AND EVEN
LOCATION COULD CHANGE...BUT MODELS ARE SIMILAR ENOUGH TO LEND SOME
CONFIDENCE FOR A WET START TO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SHIFT SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES IN
FOG...BUT MAINLY AT THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF PGD...FMY AND RSW
EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES BUILDING IN
ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND IT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS SO NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  51  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  77  54  76  53 /   5   0   0   0
GIF  73  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  73  49  70  50 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  70  39  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  72  56  68  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...63/JILLSON




000
FXUS62 KJAX 170842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SE ZONES AT
08Z WITH WEAK NWLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF STRATUS NOTED OVER THE
SE ZONES AND SHOULD DEPART THE AREA NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT
PRESSES SEWD. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH RH VALUES IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM GNV TO SGJ AND POINTS SWD AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS NOTED
IN A COUPLE OF METAR SITES BUT THIS ALSO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BUT
INCLUDED IT IN THE MORNING PERIOD FCST.

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NW. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT NWLY SFC WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
GRADUALLY EWD WITH UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND HELP SPREAD
SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
OVERALL MOSTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT LOWS
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MID 30S TEMPS EXPECTED INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT NO FROST IS EXPECTED ATTM AS DEWPOINTS WILL STAY ABOVE
FREEZING. THU NIGHT LOWS NOT AS COLD WITH 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER WESTERN GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY...
WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG LA COAST. LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TRACK EASTWARD ALONG GULF COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION DECREASES IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA...HAVE POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST POPS NW TO LOWEST POPS SE
SAT NIGHT...THEN LOWEST NW/HIGHEST SE SUNDAY.

BOTH GFS AND ECM SUGGEST OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ALONG/NORTH OF SHALLOW
FRONT WILL BRING DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOST AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIFTING
OFFSHORE MON NIGHT...WITH ECM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH NEXT SYSTEM
AND KEEPS SW FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WITH CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION
STREAMING IN FROM NE GULF OF MEX. IN FACT...ECM SUGGESTS DECENT RAINFALL
EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA MON/TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WITH
COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT GIVEN STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM WRN GULF COAST TO OHIO
VALLEY REGION. GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ECM...WILL TREND
THIS PACKAGE TOWARD WETTER ECM SOLUTION. KEEPING POPS BELOW LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT HIGHER POPS (AS SUGGESTED BY ECM MEDIUM RANGE
MOS POPS)...AND GREATER T-STORM POTENTIAL...CAN BE EXPECTED IF
ECM CONSISTENCY CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECM SHOWING MUCH COLDER AIR COMING FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY EARLY THIS MORNING
AT VQQ AND GNV...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND DECREASE EARLY TODAY THROUGH FRI AS
SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES NW/N OF THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT WINDS
EXPIRED THE SCA AND REPLACED WITH A SHORT DURATION SCEC HEADLINE FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE UP TO AROUND
60-62 DEGREES OVER WATER TEMPS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 50S BUT TOO
EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT FCSTS. THEN...A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE
WATERS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW SWELL/SEA HEIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  37  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  61  43  61  47 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  65  41  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  45  65  50 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  67  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  69  39  68  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/SHASHY






000
FXUS62 KJAX 170842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SE ZONES AT
08Z WITH WEAK NWLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF STRATUS NOTED OVER THE
SE ZONES AND SHOULD DEPART THE AREA NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT
PRESSES SEWD. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH RH VALUES IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM GNV TO SGJ AND POINTS SWD AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS NOTED
IN A COUPLE OF METAR SITES BUT THIS ALSO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BUT
INCLUDED IT IN THE MORNING PERIOD FCST.

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NW. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT NWLY SFC WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
GRADUALLY EWD WITH UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND HELP SPREAD
SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
OVERALL MOSTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT LOWS
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MID 30S TEMPS EXPECTED INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT NO FROST IS EXPECTED ATTM AS DEWPOINTS WILL STAY ABOVE
FREEZING. THU NIGHT LOWS NOT AS COLD WITH 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER WESTERN GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY...
WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG LA COAST. LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TRACK EASTWARD ALONG GULF COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION DECREASES IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA...HAVE POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST POPS NW TO LOWEST POPS SE
SAT NIGHT...THEN LOWEST NW/HIGHEST SE SUNDAY.

BOTH GFS AND ECM SUGGEST OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ALONG/NORTH OF SHALLOW
FRONT WILL BRING DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOST AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIFTING
OFFSHORE MON NIGHT...WITH ECM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH NEXT SYSTEM
AND KEEPS SW FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WITH CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION
STREAMING IN FROM NE GULF OF MEX. IN FACT...ECM SUGGESTS DECENT RAINFALL
EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA MON/TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WITH
COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT GIVEN STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM WRN GULF COAST TO OHIO
VALLEY REGION. GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ECM...WILL TREND
THIS PACKAGE TOWARD WETTER ECM SOLUTION. KEEPING POPS BELOW LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT HIGHER POPS (AS SUGGESTED BY ECM MEDIUM RANGE
MOS POPS)...AND GREATER T-STORM POTENTIAL...CAN BE EXPECTED IF
ECM CONSISTENCY CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECM SHOWING MUCH COLDER AIR COMING FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY EARLY THIS MORNING
AT VQQ AND GNV...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND DECREASE EARLY TODAY THROUGH FRI AS
SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES NW/N OF THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT WINDS
EXPIRED THE SCA AND REPLACED WITH A SHORT DURATION SCEC HEADLINE FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE UP TO AROUND
60-62 DEGREES OVER WATER TEMPS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 50S BUT TOO
EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT FCSTS. THEN...A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE
WATERS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW SWELL/SEA HEIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  37  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  61  43  61  47 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  65  41  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  45  65  50 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  67  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  69  39  68  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/SHASHY





000
FXUS62 KJAX 170842
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
340 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE SE ZONES AT
08Z WITH WEAK NWLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. BRIEF STRATUS NOTED OVER THE
SE ZONES AND SHOULD DEPART THE AREA NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT
PRESSES SEWD. LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH RH VALUES IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM GNV TO SGJ AND POINTS SWD AND PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS NOTED
IN A COUPLE OF METAR SITES BUT THIS ALSO WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BUT
INCLUDED IT IN THE MORNING PERIOD FCST.

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A NEAR ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS
EXPECTED AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NW. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT NWLY SFC WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SWRN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
GRADUALLY EWD WITH UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING DOWNSTREAM AND HELP SPREAD
SOME HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT
OVERALL MOSTLY SUNNY TO OCCASIONALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THURSDAY NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS BUT LOWS
TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MID 30S TEMPS EXPECTED INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BUT NO FROST IS EXPECTED ATTM AS DEWPOINTS WILL STAY ABOVE
FREEZING. THU NIGHT LOWS NOT AS COLD WITH 40S MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER WESTERN GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY...
WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG LA COAST. LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TRACK EASTWARD ALONG GULF COAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION DECREASES IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER
OUR AREA...HAVE POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHEST POPS NW TO LOWEST POPS SE
SAT NIGHT...THEN LOWEST NW/HIGHEST SE SUNDAY.

BOTH GFS AND ECM SUGGEST OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ALONG/NORTH OF SHALLOW
FRONT WILL BRING DECENT CHANCE OF RAIN MOST AREAS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. MODELS DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION SHIFTING
OFFSHORE MON NIGHT...WITH ECM IS MUCH STRONGER WITH NEXT SYSTEM
AND KEEPS SW FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR AREA WITH CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION
STREAMING IN FROM NE GULF OF MEX. IN FACT...ECM SUGGESTS DECENT RAINFALL
EVENT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA MON/TUE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WITH
COLD FRONT TUE NIGHT GIVEN STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND
RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING FROM WRN GULF COAST TO OHIO
VALLEY REGION. GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ECM...WILL TREND
THIS PACKAGE TOWARD WETTER ECM SOLUTION. KEEPING POPS BELOW LIKELY
CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT HIGHER POPS (AS SUGGESTED BY ECM MEDIUM RANGE
MOS POPS)...AND GREATER T-STORM POTENTIAL...CAN BE EXPECTED IF
ECM CONSISTENCY CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECM SHOWING MUCH COLDER AIR COMING FOR CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY EARLY THIS MORNING
AT VQQ AND GNV...VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND DECREASE EARLY TODAY THROUGH FRI AS
SFC HIGH PRES DOMINATES NW/N OF THE AREA. BASED ON CURRENT WINDS
EXPIRED THE SCA AND REPLACED WITH A SHORT DURATION SCEC HEADLINE FOR
OFFSHORE WATERS. SOME PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT SINCE DEWPOINTS MAY RISE UP TO AROUND
60-62 DEGREES OVER WATER TEMPS THAT ARE IN THE UPPER 50S BUT TOO
EARLY TO INCLUDE IN THE CURRENT FCSTS. THEN...A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND STALL
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BEFORE MOVING NORTH OF THE
WATERS AS A WARM FRONT TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM OVER
THE GULF COAST REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW SWELL/SEA HEIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  37  64  42 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  61  43  61  47 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  65  41  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  63  45  65  50 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  67  39  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  69  39  68  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/SHASHY





000
FXUS62 KMLB 170832
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS REACHED LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH NARROW
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN A PITTANCE OF SPRINKLES ALONG IT. WIND
SHIFT TO NW WITH ABOUT 5-8F WORTH OF COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING-AFTERNOON
AND WASH OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
TONIGHT. SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE DIURNAL
CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OR HALF OF THE CWA.
OTRW...PTLY TO MSUNNY WITH HIGHS U60S-L70S ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
AND M70S SOUTH...WITH A FEW U70S LIMITED TO MARTIN CO. A LITTLE COOLER
TONIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE M-U40S.

THU-FRI...
H100-H70 RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW GOMEX INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS
WILL DRIFT E THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP ZONAL FLOW THAT DOMINATES THE WX PATTERN E OF THE ROCKIES.
MOISTURE WITH THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE LOW WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
BLO 40PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 20PCT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS QUITE
WEAK AS WELL NO NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS THRU EITHER THE H85-H50
OR THE H85-H30 LYR.

MSUNNY THRU THE DAYS...MCLR AT NIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS ON THU
VEERING TO THE E/NE OF FRI AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN THE L/M70S. OVERNIGHT MINS
THU NIGHT IN THE M/U40S INTERIOR AND U40S/L50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMING INTO THE M/U50S FRI NIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES
OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE STATE.

SAT-TUE...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE
SRN TIER STATES. AN H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO
ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE
ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS
WHILE ITS ORIENTATION IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE
FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT.
FURTHERMORE...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC...
IT WILL DEFLECT THE SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY
BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR AND U5

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ATTM. SC CIGS MAINLY BKN025-045 ALONG FRONTAL BDRY.
SOME SPOTTY MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN MIST/FOG OVER WRN FL COULD LEAK
INTO THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER TRANSIENT
COMPARED TO THE PREV TWO MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SW-WSW WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND DECREASING TO AROUND
10KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE.

THU-THU NIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIFT
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH...GENERATING A LIGHT TO GENTLE NWRLY BREEZE ACRS
THE LCL ATLC. SEAS AOB 2FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN
SEABOARD...BUT WILL RETAIN ENOUGH IDENTITY TO FORCE SFC WNDS TO VEER
TO THE NE BY MIDDAY...E/NE BY SUNSET...THEN TO THE S/SE OVERNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS
WITH SEAS AOB 2FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GOMEX WILL DRAG A COOL
FRONT ACRS THE FL PENINSULA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
WEEKEND. PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO FRESHEN OUT OF THE S ON SAT BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING TO THE
W/SW OVERNIGHT. WINDS 10-15KTS NEARSHORE AND ARND 15KTS OFFSHORE.
SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FCST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT MANAGES TO
PENETRATE BEFORE WASHING OUT...BUT WITH THE TROF AXIS OVERHEAD...THE
PGRAD SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK. WINDS VEERING TO THE W/NW THRU THE DAY
WHILE DIMINISHING TO 5-10KTS...THEN TO THE N/NW OVERNIGHT AOB 5KTS.
SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CRITICAL WIND/LOW RH CONCERNS INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO THE LOWER 6.54FT...JUST ABOVE THE LOWER END OF ACTION STAGE
(6.50FT). PROTRACTED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW
ACTION STAGE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  73  48  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  73  48  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  75  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  70  46  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  71  48  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  73  48  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  74  49  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....BRAGAW






000
FXUS62 KMLB 170832
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS REACHED LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH NARROW
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN A PITTANCE OF SPRINKLES ALONG IT. WIND
SHIFT TO NW WITH ABOUT 5-8F WORTH OF COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING-AFTERNOON
AND WASH OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
TONIGHT. SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE DIURNAL
CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OR HALF OF THE CWA.
OTRW...PTLY TO MSUNNY WITH HIGHS U60S-L70S ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
AND M70S SOUTH...WITH A FEW U70S LIMITED TO MARTIN CO. A LITTLE COOLER
TONIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE M-U40S.

THU-FRI...
H100-H70 RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW GOMEX INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS
WILL DRIFT E THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP ZONAL FLOW THAT DOMINATES THE WX PATTERN E OF THE ROCKIES.
MOISTURE WITH THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE LOW WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
BLO 40PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 20PCT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS QUITE
WEAK AS WELL NO NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS THRU EITHER THE H85-H50
OR THE H85-H30 LYR.

MSUNNY THRU THE DAYS...MCLR AT NIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS ON THU
VEERING TO THE E/NE OF FRI AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN THE L/M70S. OVERNIGHT MINS
THU NIGHT IN THE M/U40S INTERIOR AND U40S/L50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMING INTO THE M/U50S FRI NIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES
OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE STATE.

SAT-TUE...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE
SRN TIER STATES. AN H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO
ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE
ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS
WHILE ITS ORIENTATION IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE
FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT.
FURTHERMORE...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC...
IT WILL DEFLECT THE SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY
BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR AND U5

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ATTM. SC CIGS MAINLY BKN025-045 ALONG FRONTAL BDRY.
SOME SPOTTY MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN MIST/FOG OVER WRN FL COULD LEAK
INTO THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER TRANSIENT
COMPARED TO THE PREV TWO MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SW-WSW WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND DECREASING TO AROUND
10KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE.

THU-THU NIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIFT
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH...GENERATING A LIGHT TO GENTLE NWRLY BREEZE ACRS
THE LCL ATLC. SEAS AOB 2FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN
SEABOARD...BUT WILL RETAIN ENOUGH IDENTITY TO FORCE SFC WNDS TO VEER
TO THE NE BY MIDDAY...E/NE BY SUNSET...THEN TO THE S/SE OVERNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS
WITH SEAS AOB 2FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GOMEX WILL DRAG A COOL
FRONT ACRS THE FL PENINSULA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
WEEKEND. PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO FRESHEN OUT OF THE S ON SAT BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING TO THE
W/SW OVERNIGHT. WINDS 10-15KTS NEARSHORE AND ARND 15KTS OFFSHORE.
SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FCST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT MANAGES TO
PENETRATE BEFORE WASHING OUT...BUT WITH THE TROF AXIS OVERHEAD...THE
PGRAD SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK. WINDS VEERING TO THE W/NW THRU THE DAY
WHILE DIMINISHING TO 5-10KTS...THEN TO THE N/NW OVERNIGHT AOB 5KTS.
SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CRITICAL WIND/LOW RH CONCERNS INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO THE LOWER 6.54FT...JUST ABOVE THE LOWER END OF ACTION STAGE
(6.50FT). PROTRACTED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW
ACTION STAGE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  73  48  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  73  48  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  75  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  70  46  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  71  48  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  73  48  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  74  49  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....BRAGAW





000
FXUS62 KMLB 170832
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS REACHED LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH NARROW
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN A PITTANCE OF SPRINKLES ALONG IT. WIND
SHIFT TO NW WITH ABOUT 5-8F WORTH OF COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING-AFTERNOON
AND WASH OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
TONIGHT. SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE DIURNAL
CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OR HALF OF THE CWA.
OTRW...PTLY TO MSUNNY WITH HIGHS U60S-L70S ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
AND M70S SOUTH...WITH A FEW U70S LIMITED TO MARTIN CO. A LITTLE COOLER
TONIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE M-U40S.

THU-FRI...
H100-H70 RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW GOMEX INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS
WILL DRIFT E THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP ZONAL FLOW THAT DOMINATES THE WX PATTERN E OF THE ROCKIES.
MOISTURE WITH THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE LOW WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
BLO 40PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 20PCT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS QUITE
WEAK AS WELL NO NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS THRU EITHER THE H85-H50
OR THE H85-H30 LYR.

MSUNNY THRU THE DAYS...MCLR AT NIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS ON THU
VEERING TO THE E/NE OF FRI AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN THE L/M70S. OVERNIGHT MINS
THU NIGHT IN THE M/U40S INTERIOR AND U40S/L50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMING INTO THE M/U50S FRI NIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES
OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE STATE.

SAT-TUE...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE
SRN TIER STATES. AN H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO
ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE
ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS
WHILE ITS ORIENTATION IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE
FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT.
FURTHERMORE...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC...
IT WILL DEFLECT THE SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY
BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR AND U5

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ATTM. SC CIGS MAINLY BKN025-045 ALONG FRONTAL BDRY.
SOME SPOTTY MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN MIST/FOG OVER WRN FL COULD LEAK
INTO THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER TRANSIENT
COMPARED TO THE PREV TWO MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SW-WSW WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND DECREASING TO AROUND
10KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE.

THU-THU NIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIFT
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH...GENERATING A LIGHT TO GENTLE NWRLY BREEZE ACRS
THE LCL ATLC. SEAS AOB 2FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN
SEABOARD...BUT WILL RETAIN ENOUGH IDENTITY TO FORCE SFC WNDS TO VEER
TO THE NE BY MIDDAY...E/NE BY SUNSET...THEN TO THE S/SE OVERNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS
WITH SEAS AOB 2FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GOMEX WILL DRAG A COOL
FRONT ACRS THE FL PENINSULA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
WEEKEND. PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO FRESHEN OUT OF THE S ON SAT BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING TO THE
W/SW OVERNIGHT. WINDS 10-15KTS NEARSHORE AND ARND 15KTS OFFSHORE.
SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FCST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT MANAGES TO
PENETRATE BEFORE WASHING OUT...BUT WITH THE TROF AXIS OVERHEAD...THE
PGRAD SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK. WINDS VEERING TO THE W/NW THRU THE DAY
WHILE DIMINISHING TO 5-10KTS...THEN TO THE N/NW OVERNIGHT AOB 5KTS.
SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CRITICAL WIND/LOW RH CONCERNS INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO THE LOWER 6.54FT...JUST ABOVE THE LOWER END OF ACTION STAGE
(6.50FT). PROTRACTED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW
ACTION STAGE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  73  48  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  73  48  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  75  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  70  46  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  71  48  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  73  48  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  74  49  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....BRAGAW






000
FXUS62 KMLB 170832
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS REACHED LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES WITH NARROW
BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN A PITTANCE OF SPRINKLES ALONG IT. WIND
SHIFT TO NW WITH ABOUT 5-8F WORTH OF COOLING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

TODAY/TONIGHT...
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING-AFTERNOON
AND WASH OUT SOMEWHERE NEAR OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
TONIGHT. SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A FEW MORE DIURNAL
CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OR HALF OF THE CWA.
OTRW...PTLY TO MSUNNY WITH HIGHS U60S-L70S ACROSS THE NORTH/CENTRAL
AND M70S SOUTH...WITH A FEW U70S LIMITED TO MARTIN CO. A LITTLE COOLER
TONIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE M-U40S.

THU-FRI...
H100-H70 RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW GOMEX INTO THE CANADIAN PLAINS
WILL DRIFT E THRU THE END OF THE WORK WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP ZONAL FLOW THAT DOMINATES THE WX PATTERN E OF THE ROCKIES.
MOISTURE WITH THIS AIRMASS IS QUITE LOW WITH H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
BLO 40PCT...H85-H50 VALUES BLO 20PCT. OVERALL INSTABILITY IS QUITE
WEAK AS WELL NO NOTABLE VORTICITY MAXIMUMS THRU EITHER THE H85-H50
OR THE H85-H30 LYR.

MSUNNY THRU THE DAYS...MCLR AT NIGHT WITH LIGHT NW WINDS ON THU
VEERING TO THE E/NE OF FRI AS THE RIDGE PUSHES TO THE ERN SEABOARD.
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH DAYTIME MAXES IN THE L/M70S. OVERNIGHT MINS
THU NIGHT IN THE M/U40S INTERIOR AND U40S/L50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMING INTO THE M/U50S FRI NIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW PUSHES
OCEAN MODIFIED AIR ACRS THE STATE.

SAT-TUE...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WX PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTG INTO NEXT
WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROF OVER THE WEST COAST WORKS ITS WAY ACRS THE
SRN TIER STATES. AN H30-H20 JET STREAK EXTENDING FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA TO THE MID ATLC COAST WILL PROVIDE THE UPR LVL SUPPORT TO
ALLOW THE SHORTWAVE TO DVLP A CLOSED SFC LOW AS IT PUSHES ACRS THE
ARKLATEX. HOWEVER...MAX WINDS ASSOCD WITH THE JET ARE ONLY 80-100KTS
WHILE ITS ORIENTATION IS EITHER ZONAL OR LIFTING. NEITHER OF THESE
FACTORS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID OR STRONG STORM DVLPMNT.
FURTHERMORE...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE W ATLC...
IT WILL DEFLECT THE SFC LOW OFF TO THE NE BUILD SIMULTANEOUSLY
BLOCKING OUT ITS ASSOCD COLD FRONT.

THE RESULT WILL BE A FRONT THAT SHOULD STALL OVER CENTRAL FL AS THE
WEAK STORM SYSTEM LIFTS UP THE ERN SEABOARD. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
WITHIN THE TROF WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH
THE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK...A DEEP SW FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THRU THE COLUMN THAT WILL GENERATE GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT.
WHILE THIS USUALLY GENERATES A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF RAIN
EVENT...H50 TEMPS BTWN -10C/-12C WILL HELP GENERATE SOME FAIRLY
STEEP LAPSE RATES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND THAT COULD TRIGGER ISOLD
TSRAS.

WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE FCST THRU THE PD BUT BLO
50PCT. A PROLONGED PD OF S/SWRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HELP
KEEP TEMPS ABV AVG...THOUGH CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLED AIR WILL HELP
OFFSET THIS EFFECT. AFTN MAXES GENERALLY IN THE L/M70S N OF
I-4...M/U70S TO THE S. MIN TEMPS M/U50S INTERIOR AND U5

&&

.AVIATION...VFR ATTM. SC CIGS MAINLY BKN025-045 ALONG FRONTAL BDRY.
SOME SPOTTY MVFR TO IFR VSBYS IN MIST/FOG OVER WRN FL COULD LEAK
INTO THE CWA THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER TRANSIENT
COMPARED TO THE PREV TWO MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...SW-WSW WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND DECREASING TO AROUND
10KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3FT WELL OFFSHORE.

THU-THU NIGHT...A HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIFT
ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH...GENERATING A LIGHT TO GENTLE NWRLY BREEZE ACRS
THE LCL ATLC. SEAS AOB 2FT.

FRI-FRI NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN
SEABOARD...BUT WILL RETAIN ENOUGH IDENTITY TO FORCE SFC WNDS TO VEER
TO THE NE BY MIDDAY...E/NE BY SUNSET...THEN TO THE S/SE OVERNIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS AOB 10KTS WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS
WITH SEAS AOB 2FT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...A WEAK STORM SYSTEM OVER THE GOMEX WILL DRAG A COOL
FRONT ACRS THE FL PENINSULA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
WEEKEND. PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALLOWING
WINDS TO FRESHEN OUT OF THE S ON SAT BEFORE SLOWLY VEERING TO THE
W/SW OVERNIGHT. WINDS 10-15KTS NEARSHORE AND ARND 15KTS OFFSHORE.
SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...FCST WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR S THE FRONT MANAGES TO
PENETRATE BEFORE WASHING OUT...BUT WITH THE TROF AXIS OVERHEAD...THE
PGRAD SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK. WINDS VEERING TO THE W/NW THRU THE DAY
WHILE DIMINISHING TO 5-10KTS...THEN TO THE N/NW OVERNIGHT AOB 5KTS.
SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CRITICAL WIND/LOW RH CONCERNS INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY (GENF1) HAS
FALLEN TO THE LOWER 6.54FT...JUST ABOVE THE LOWER END OF ACTION STAGE
(6.50FT). PROTRACTED DRY WEATHER WILL ALLOW THE RIVER TO DROP BELOW
ACTION STAGE BY TONIGHT OR EARLY THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  73  48  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  73  48  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  75  48  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  70  46  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  71  48  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  73  48  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  74  49  73  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....BRAGAW





000
FXUS62 KMFL 170818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  60  76  61 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  77  64 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  61  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  56  73  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 170818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  60  76  61 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  77  64 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  61  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  56  73  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 170818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  60  76  61 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  77  64 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  61  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  56  73  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 170818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  60  76  61 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  77  64 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  61  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  56  73  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 170818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  60  76  61 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  77  64 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  61  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  56  73  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 170818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  60  76  61 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  77  64 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  61  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  56  73  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 170549
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1249 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...

MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KAPF MAY LEAD TO SOME REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS VIS
ABOVE 4SM. OTHERWISE, MORE VFR AS A WEAK FRONT DIES NEAR THE LAKE
REGION LATER TODAY. A SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, THEN WEAKEN AND STALL,
BRINGING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 6KTS.
MODELS DO INDICATE A SEA BREEZE MAY TRY TO KICK IN FOR A FEW HOURS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MAY TURN THE WINDS MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE THEY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  60  76  61 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  77  64 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            77  61  78  63 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           74  56  73  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KKEY 170328
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MARCHING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES HAS SUPPRESSED THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE KEYS. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND RESIDUAL
RIDGING AND STABLE LOWER LEVELS. THE LIGHT FLOW UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH DEW
POINTS NEAR 60.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS...AS RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME ISLAND LOCATIONS TO RADIATE A
FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT WITH DEW POINTS NOW NEAR 60...THERE IS ONLY SO
MUCH FURTHER TEMPERATURES CAN GO. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S APPEARS REASONABLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO STABLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT AND WEAK FLOW. ONGOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS DUE
TO RIDGING OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORT ISLAND TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 170328
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MARCHING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES HAS SUPPRESSED THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE KEYS. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND RESIDUAL
RIDGING AND STABLE LOWER LEVELS. THE LIGHT FLOW UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH DEW
POINTS NEAR 60.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS...AS RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME ISLAND LOCATIONS TO RADIATE A
FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT WITH DEW POINTS NOW NEAR 60...THERE IS ONLY SO
MUCH FURTHER TEMPERATURES CAN GO. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S APPEARS REASONABLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO STABLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT AND WEAK FLOW. ONGOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS DUE
TO RIDGING OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORT ISLAND TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





000
FXUS62 KKEY 170328
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MARCHING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES HAS SUPPRESSED THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE KEYS. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND RESIDUAL
RIDGING AND STABLE LOWER LEVELS. THE LIGHT FLOW UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH DEW
POINTS NEAR 60.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS...AS RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME ISLAND LOCATIONS TO RADIATE A
FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT WITH DEW POINTS NOW NEAR 60...THERE IS ONLY SO
MUCH FURTHER TEMPERATURES CAN GO. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S APPEARS REASONABLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO STABLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT AND WEAK FLOW. ONGOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS DUE
TO RIDGING OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORT ISLAND TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 170328
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1028 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MARCHING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
COAST STATES HAS SUPPRESSED THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...RESULTING IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE KEYS. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
STABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN DUE TO MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND RESIDUAL
RIDGING AND STABLE LOWER LEVELS. THE LIGHT FLOW UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO DRIFT DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH DEW
POINTS NEAR 60.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (OVERNIGHT) - WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE KEYS...AS RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE WEAK FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME ISLAND LOCATIONS TO RADIATE A
FEW MORE DEGREES...BUT WITH DEW POINTS NOW NEAR 60...THERE IS ONLY SO
MUCH FURTHER TEMPERATURES CAN GO. CONSEQUENTLY...FORECAST LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S APPEARS REASONABLE. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO STABLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT AND WEAK FLOW. ONGOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATE IS PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS KEYS WATERS DUE
TO RIDGING OVER SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON
TRACK...AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE IN THE EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KEY WEST
INTERNATIONAL AND MARATHON AIRPORT ISLAND TERMINALS. SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 170221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

In the wake of a cold front, dry air is spilling into the region.
Some weak cold air advection will be responsible for the fall of
temperatures to start the night, with marginal radiational cooling
to end the night as winds calm. Expect middle 30s north and west
of a line from Albany to Panama City, and upper 30s to around 40
degrees away from the coast elsewhere.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions under clear skies and light winds will prevail
through the TAF.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

For Wednesday and Thursday, the Southeast will see a well-
established surface high pressure ridge and zonal flow aloft. This
should lead two a brief stretch of dry weather, light winds,
plenty of sunshine, and near normal temperatures.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The global models are beginning to converge on a common solution
for Friday and Saturday - a deamplifying ejecting wave aloft will
contribute to the development of a weak surface low along the Gulf
coast. There will likely be an area of rain with embedded storms
as the wave and associated surface low move quickly ENE. With most
global model guidance currently showing almost no height falls
aloft with the deamplifying wave passing north of our area, we
could see the coverage of rain decrease to the east. Given this,
PoPs were kept in the "chance" range. There is also agreement on
secondary cyclogenesis over the Gulf as another wave ejects east
around Tuesday - so rain chances were included Monday-Tuesday as
well at the end of the forecast period.


.Marine...

Winds around SCEC levels will be possible west of Apalachicola
tonight, before the winds diminish through Thursday Night. On
Friday, the winds will increase again with the approach of a low-
pressure system with SCEC level winds likely by later Friday Night
or Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

No flooding issues are expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  65  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   44  61  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        38  61  39  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        37  63  36  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      39  63  38  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    40  66  38  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  44  62  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KTAE 170221
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
921 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

In the wake of a cold front, dry air is spilling into the region.
Some weak cold air advection will be responsible for the fall of
temperatures to start the night, with marginal radiational cooling
to end the night as winds calm. Expect middle 30s north and west
of a line from Albany to Panama City, and upper 30s to around 40
degrees away from the coast elsewhere.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...

VFR conditions under clear skies and light winds will prevail
through the TAF.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

For Wednesday and Thursday, the Southeast will see a well-
established surface high pressure ridge and zonal flow aloft. This
should lead two a brief stretch of dry weather, light winds,
plenty of sunshine, and near normal temperatures.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The global models are beginning to converge on a common solution
for Friday and Saturday - a deamplifying ejecting wave aloft will
contribute to the development of a weak surface low along the Gulf
coast. There will likely be an area of rain with embedded storms
as the wave and associated surface low move quickly ENE. With most
global model guidance currently showing almost no height falls
aloft with the deamplifying wave passing north of our area, we
could see the coverage of rain decrease to the east. Given this,
PoPs were kept in the "chance" range. There is also agreement on
secondary cyclogenesis over the Gulf as another wave ejects east
around Tuesday - so rain chances were included Monday-Tuesday as
well at the end of the forecast period.


.Marine...

Winds around SCEC levels will be possible west of Apalachicola
tonight, before the winds diminish through Thursday Night. On
Friday, the winds will increase again with the approach of a low-
pressure system with SCEC level winds likely by later Friday Night
or Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

No flooding issues are expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   39  65  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   44  61  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        38  61  39  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        37  63  36  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      39  63  38  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    40  66  38  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  44  62  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS/HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS






000
FXUS62 KMLB 170207
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
907 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-WED...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THINKING.  THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE PRE FRONTAL CLOUDINESS BUT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL NOT BRING ANY RAINFALL TO EAST
CENTRAL FL. THE ONLY CONCERN AFTER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS IS THE CHANCE
FOR FOG.

CANAVERAL PROFILER SHOWS LOW LEVEL WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND MODELS
INDICATED THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL STAY AT LEAST 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.  THIS SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BUT SOUTHERN
AREAS MIGHT HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG DUE TO
LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING A LITTLE WEAKER THERE.  EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE A BAND OF LOW STRATUS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY
OSCEOLA/BREVARD NORTHWARD.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LITTLE COOLER WED WITH WEAK NW FLOW AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S LAKE/VOLUSIA. CLOUDINESS MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO DEPART ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT SLOWS. HIGHS ACROSS
THE SOUTH LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR UNTIL UNTIL ABOUT 06Z...THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH 13-14Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK
HIGH ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THAT OCCURRED THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS FROM KLEE TO NEAR INTERSTATE 4. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR LOCAL DENSE FOG FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/WED...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO WED AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT SLOWS WHILE MOVING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT FOR WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE FROM
THE CAPE NORTH LOOKS GOOD...THEN GRADUALLY EASING WINDS WILL OCCUR
THERE BY AROUND SUNRISE.  WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WED AND DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WIMMER





000
FXUS62 KMLB 170207
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
907 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-WED...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THINKING.  THERE WILL BE A
LITTLE PRE FRONTAL CLOUDINESS BUT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL NOT BRING ANY RAINFALL TO EAST
CENTRAL FL. THE ONLY CONCERN AFTER THE LAST FEW NIGHTS IS THE CHANCE
FOR FOG.

CANAVERAL PROFILER SHOWS LOW LEVEL WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND MODELS
INDICATED THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL STAY AT LEAST 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT.  THIS SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BUT SOUTHERN
AREAS MIGHT HAVE A LITTLE HIGHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG DUE TO
LOW LEVEL WINDS BEING A LITTLE WEAKER THERE.  EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE A BAND OF LOW STRATUS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY
OSCEOLA/BREVARD NORTHWARD.

CLEARING SKIES AND A LITTLE COOLER WED WITH WEAK NW FLOW AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S LAKE/VOLUSIA. CLOUDINESS MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO DEPART ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT SLOWS. HIGHS ACROSS
THE SOUTH LOOK SIMILAR TO TODAY...MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR UNTIL UNTIL ABOUT 06Z...THEN A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG IS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT THROUGH 13-14Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK
HIGH ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THAT OCCURRED THE
PAST FEW NIGHTS FROM KLEE TO NEAR INTERSTATE 4. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR LOCAL DENSE FOG FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE COAST WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/WED...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTH IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO WED AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT SLOWS WHILE MOVING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT FOR WEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE FROM
THE CAPE NORTH LOOKS GOOD...THEN GRADUALLY EASING WINDS WILL OCCUR
THERE BY AROUND SUNRISE.  WINDS WILL TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
WED AND DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...WIMMER






000
FXUS62 KTBW 170202
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
902 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ALOFT A LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST HAD A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WAS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAILED A COLD FRONT THAT ARCED SOUTHWESTERLY...ACROSS NORTHERN
FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST...OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
NATURE COAST INTO THE TAMPA BAY REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE
WILL BE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL PWAT VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES BUT
SLIGHT HIGHER ON THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE AND SOME CONVERGENCE WITH
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW ODDS OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO JUST BRUSH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
COUNTIES...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG AGAIN WITH PATCHES
TO AREAS. TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
PLUS THE FRONT TRACKING SOUTH SO WHILE THERE WILL BE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LIKE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECASTS ARE HANDLING EVERYTHING FAIRLY WELL. BUT
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY AND SHOWER COVERAGE AND
SENT OUT THE UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THAT POOLS MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH MVFR/LCL IFR VSBY AND CIGS...AND SOME VCNTY SHRA FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL TAFS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH...AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE NO MARINE CONCERNS AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW
CAUTION LEVELS BEHIND THE WEAK FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK NRLY
FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK. WEAK TO MODERATE SRLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH...BUT WINDS CURRENTLY REMAIN AOB 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  71  50  69 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  54  76  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  55  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  56  70  50  70 /  20  10   0   0
BKV  50  70  37  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  70  55  69 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD






000
FXUS62 KTBW 170202
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
902 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ALOFT A LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST HAD A SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WHILE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WAS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SPRAWLED FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TRAILED A COLD FRONT THAT ARCED SOUTHWESTERLY...ACROSS NORTHERN
FL TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATES NORTHEASTWARD...CROSSING THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST...OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
NATURE COAST INTO THE TAMPA BAY REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK. THERE
WILL BE NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WITH AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODEL PWAT VALUES GENERALLY AROUND 1.0 TO 1.2 INCHES BUT
SLIGHT HIGHER ON THE GULF. THIS MOISTURE AND SOME CONVERGENCE WITH
THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT LOW ODDS OF SHOWERS. HOWEVER EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO JUST BRUSH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL
COUNTIES...THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG AGAIN WITH PATCHES
TO AREAS. TONIGHT THERE IS A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
PLUS THE FRONT TRACKING SOUTH SO WHILE THERE WILL BE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE LIKE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING.

THE CURRENT FORECASTS ARE HANDLING EVERYTHING FAIRLY WELL. BUT
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE SKY AND SHOWER COVERAGE AND
SENT OUT THE UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH PROVIDE SOME
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW THAT POOLS MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH MVFR/LCL IFR VSBY AND CIGS...AND SOME VCNTY SHRA FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL TAFS. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE FRONT
SLIDES SOUTH...AFTER DAYBREAK.

&&

.MARINE...
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE NO MARINE CONCERNS AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW
CAUTION LEVELS BEHIND THE WEAK FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK NRLY
FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK. WEAK TO MODERATE SRLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH...BUT WINDS CURRENTLY REMAIN AOB 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  71  50  69 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  54  76  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  55  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  56  70  50  70 /  20  10   0   0
BKV  50  70  37  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  70  55  69 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
MARINE...11/MCKAUGHAN
DECISION SUPPORT...24/HUBBARD







000
FXUS62 KJAX 170200
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
900 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA...RECENTLY PASSING THROUGH BRUNSWICK
AND VALDOSTA. BUT FOR A VERY NARROW BAND OF STRATOCU
CLOUDS...VERY LITTLE MARKS THE FRONT. IN FACT MOST OF THE AREA HAS
CLEAR SKIES. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD POSSIBLY SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL REACH JACKSONVILLE BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN PUSH
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AND
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. LATE
NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE
TO GAINESVILLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS IN THE 1500-3000 FT RANGE AT
KGNV UNTIL ABOUT 06Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW LEVEL
JET OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WITH SFC WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING AT 5-10 KNOTS SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF
THE TAF FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH
THE ROUTINE EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THURSDAY WITH LOW SWELL HEIGHTS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  62  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  45  60  44  61 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  45  64  41  65 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  47  62  45  63 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  46  67  40  66 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  48  68  40  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHULER/HESS/WALKER








000
FXUS62 KJAX 170200
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
900 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRESS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR AREA...RECENTLY PASSING THROUGH BRUNSWICK
AND VALDOSTA. BUT FOR A VERY NARROW BAND OF STRATOCU
CLOUDS...VERY LITTLE MARKS THE FRONT. IN FACT MOST OF THE AREA HAS
CLEAR SKIES. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD POSSIBLY SEE A LIGHT SPRINKLE
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
THE FRONT WILL REACH JACKSONVILLE BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN PUSH
THROUGH THE REST OF OUR FLORIDA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. DRIER AND
COLDER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. LATE
NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40 ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM JACKSONVILLE
TO GAINESVILLE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE 60S UNDER SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIOD OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS IN THE 1500-3000 FT RANGE AT
KGNV UNTIL ABOUT 06Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...OTHERWISE VFR. LOW LEVEL
JET OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO GENERATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WITH SFC WIND SPEEDS CONTINUING AT 5-10 KNOTS SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF
THE TAF FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES. NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED WITH
THE ROUTINE EVENING FORECAST ISSUANCE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THURSDAY WITH LOW SWELL HEIGHTS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  62  38  62 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  45  60  44  61 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  45  64  41  65 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  47  62  45  63 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  46  67  40  66 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  48  68  40  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND
     GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
     ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SHULER/HESS/WALKER









000
FXUS62 KMFL 162337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, THEN WEAKEN AND STALL,
BRINGING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 6KTS.
MODELS DO INDICATE A SEA BREEZE MAY TRY TO KICK IN FOR A FEW HOURS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MAY TURN THE WINDS MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE THEY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           54  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 162337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, THEN WEAKEN AND STALL,
BRINGING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 6KTS.
MODELS DO INDICATE A SEA BREEZE MAY TRY TO KICK IN FOR A FEW HOURS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MAY TURN THE WINDS MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE THEY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           54  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 162337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, THEN WEAKEN AND STALL,
BRINGING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 6KTS.
MODELS DO INDICATE A SEA BREEZE MAY TRY TO KICK IN FOR A FEW HOURS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MAY TURN THE WINDS MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE THEY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           54  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 162337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, THEN WEAKEN AND STALL,
BRINGING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 6KTS.
MODELS DO INDICATE A SEA BREEZE MAY TRY TO KICK IN FOR A FEW HOURS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MAY TURN THE WINDS MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE THEY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           54  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 162250
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           54  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 162250
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           54  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 162250
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           54  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 162250
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           54  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KTAE 162110
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
410 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Cold front will exit the southeastern Big Bend by late this
afternoon with a cooler air mass filtering in overnight. Cold air
advection will not be all that strong behind this front, as the
bulk of the cooler air is shunted north of the area in a zonal
upper pattern. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s over the
western zones, to the lower 40s for the southeast half of the CWA.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

For Wednesday and Thursday, the Southeast will see a well-
established surface high pressure ridge and zonal flow aloft. This
should lead two a brief stretch of dry weather, light winds,
plenty of sunshine, and near normal temperatures.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The global models are beginning to converge on a common solution
for Friday and Saturday - a deamplifying ejecting wave aloft will
contribute to the development of a weak surface low along the Gulf
coast. There will likely be an area of rain with embedded storms
as the wave and associated surface low move quickly ENE. With most
global model guidance currently showing almost no height falls
aloft with the deamplifying wave passing north of our area, we
could see the coverage of rain decrease to the east. Given this,
PoPs were kept in the "chance" range. There is also agreement on
secondary cyclogenesis over the Gulf as another wave ejects east
around Tuesday - so rain chances were included Monday-Tuesday as
well at the end of the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] Cold front has pushed through all area
terminal except KVLD. Expect some showers and MVFR CIGS through
about 20Z at KVLD. Thereafter (and elsewhere), VFR conditions will
prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Gusty westerly
winds (up to around 18kt) can be expected this afternoon before
dropping off early this evening.

&&

.Marine...

Winds around 15 knots will be possible tonight, before the winds
diminish through Thursday Night. On Friday, the winds will
increase again with the approach of a low-pressure system with
SCEC level winds likely by later Friday Night or Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

No flooding issues are expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   40  65  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   45  61  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        38  61  39  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        38  63  36  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      39  63  38  65  42 /  10   0   0   0  10
Cross City    43  66  38  68  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  45  62  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS






000
FXUS62 KTAE 162110
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
410 PM EST Tue Dec 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Cold front will exit the southeastern Big Bend by late this
afternoon with a cooler air mass filtering in overnight. Cold air
advection will not be all that strong behind this front, as the
bulk of the cooler air is shunted north of the area in a zonal
upper pattern. Overnight lows will range from the mid 30s over the
western zones, to the lower 40s for the southeast half of the CWA.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

For Wednesday and Thursday, the Southeast will see a well-
established surface high pressure ridge and zonal flow aloft. This
should lead two a brief stretch of dry weather, light winds,
plenty of sunshine, and near normal temperatures.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The global models are beginning to converge on a common solution
for Friday and Saturday - a deamplifying ejecting wave aloft will
contribute to the development of a weak surface low along the Gulf
coast. There will likely be an area of rain with embedded storms
as the wave and associated surface low move quickly ENE. With most
global model guidance currently showing almost no height falls
aloft with the deamplifying wave passing north of our area, we
could see the coverage of rain decrease to the east. Given this,
PoPs were kept in the "chance" range. There is also agreement on
secondary cyclogenesis over the Gulf as another wave ejects east
around Tuesday - so rain chances were included Monday-Tuesday as
well at the end of the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] Cold front has pushed through all area
terminal except KVLD. Expect some showers and MVFR CIGS through
about 20Z at KVLD. Thereafter (and elsewhere), VFR conditions will
prevail through the rest of the forecast period. Gusty westerly
winds (up to around 18kt) can be expected this afternoon before
dropping off early this evening.

&&

.Marine...

Winds around 15 knots will be possible tonight, before the winds
diminish through Thursday Night. On Friday, the winds will
increase again with the approach of a low-pressure system with
SCEC level winds likely by later Friday Night or Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

No flooding issues are expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   40  65  38  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   45  61  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        38  61  39  64  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        38  63  36  65  42 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      39  63  38  65  42 /  10   0   0   0  10
Cross City    43  66  38  68  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  45  62  46  65  50 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD/LAMERS







000
FXUS62 KMLB 162053
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
353 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SOME PRE FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS THIS EVENING BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE WEAK COOL FRONT
IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY WED ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOW
CLOUDS. THERE SHOULD BE PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTH THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT WIND FLOW
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

WED...CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER NW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S LAKE/VOLUSIA. CLOUDINESS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO DEPART
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT SLOWS. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
BE MID 70S.

WED NIGHT-FRI...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE STALLED AND EVENTUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI
AND MOVE TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
INITIAL LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND EVENTUALLY
SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRI...STARTING TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI
NIGHT.

SAT-MON...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED...WHILE THE MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FLAT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOWS SOME BACKING BY LATE SUN-MON AS
LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION TAKES PLACE OVER NOAM. A LEAD
H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ENE FROM THE LOWER MS VLY EARLY SAT
MORNING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/DELMARVA REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK LCLY MON-MON NIGHT AS LARGE NEARLY FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CTRL CONUS-MS VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
NERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE/GA TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS
BY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT INTO THE PENINSULA...BUT
JUST HOW FAR SWD AND HOW FAST REMAINS UP IN THE AIR. EXTENDED RANGE
12Z MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PLACEMENT OFF OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER
THE CMC IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT CLEARING CENTRAL FL BY THIS TIME
AND THE GFS/ECMWF HANG THE FRONT UP BETWEEN N/N-C FL. AFTER THAT THE
COOL FRONT SLOWS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE SUN BEFORE LIFTING
BACK INTO THE CTRL PENINSULA MON/MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRES
WAVE RIDES ENE-NE ALONG THE BDRY.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT...GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFS (EVEN AMONG THE ECM/CMC) POPS ARE BROAD BRUSHED
20-30 BOTH MON-MON NIGHT...BUT COULD EVENTUALLY WIND UP HIGHER FOR
ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS.

SAT MAY BE THE WARMEST OF THE 7-DAY PD. HIGHS IN THE M70S NORTH AND
U70S CTRL-SOUTH...POTENTIALLY FALLING BACK A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES FROM
THESE NUMBERS SUN-MON BEHIND/INVOF THE FRONT DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL
PLACEMENT. MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WITH THE FRONT ITSELF 08Z-13Z. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/WED...OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES A BIT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
(15-20 KNOTS) OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5
FT WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY WED BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT WIND SURGE. PRES GRAD WILL SUPPORT 10-12 KT OFFSHORE
WED AFTN.

WED NIGHT-SAT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WNW/NW FLOW THRU THU NIGHT...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON
FRI...SE/S FRI NIGHT AND PERHAPS S/SSW ON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 30S WED AND THU OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR...BUT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES/DURATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...WITH NOSIG WINDSPEED OR ERC ISSUES. DISPERSION INDICES
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR AT BEST DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  53  68  46  68 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  54  72  49  72 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  53  71  50  71 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  50  73  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  53  69  47  69 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  54  70  48  71 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  56  71  50  71 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  49  73  51  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK







000
FXUS62 KMLB 162053
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
353 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...SOME PRE FRONTAL CLOUDINESS WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS THIS EVENING BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE WEAK COOL FRONT
IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH EARLY WED ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LOW
CLOUDS. THERE SHOULD BE PATCHY FOG GIVEN THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS ESP
ACROSS THE SOUTH THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT WIND FLOW
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

WED...CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER NW FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S LAKE/VOLUSIA. CLOUDINESS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO DEPART
ACROSS THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT SLOWS. HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL
BE MID 70S.

WED NIGHT-FRI...RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGING WITH ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES THIS PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE STALLED AND EVENTUALLY WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI. A NEW LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER EAST TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRI
AND MOVE TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
INITIAL LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER EAST ON FRI AND EVENTUALLY
SE/S FRI EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRI...STARTING TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL FRI
NIGHT.

SAT-MON...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION SLIGHTLY
MODIFIED...WHILE THE MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FLAT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD...IT SHOWS SOME BACKING BY LATE SUN-MON AS
LARGER SCALE LONG WAVE AMPLIFICATION TAKES PLACE OVER NOAM. A LEAD
H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ENE FROM THE LOWER MS VLY EARLY SAT
MORNING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/DELMARVA REGION BY EARLY SUNDAY. FLOW
BEGINS TO BACK LCLY MON-MON NIGHT AS LARGE NEARLY FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CTRL CONUS-MS VALLEY.

AT THE SFC...LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES A SURFACE LOW FROM THE
NERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLE/GA TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS
BY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT INTO THE PENINSULA...BUT
JUST HOW FAR SWD AND HOW FAST REMAINS UP IN THE AIR. EXTENDED RANGE
12Z MODEL RUNS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE PLACEMENT OFF OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER
THE CMC IS FASTER WITH THE FRONT CLEARING CENTRAL FL BY THIS TIME
AND THE GFS/ECMWF HANG THE FRONT UP BETWEEN N/N-C FL. AFTER THAT THE
COOL FRONT SLOWS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LAKE SUN BEFORE LIFTING
BACK INTO THE CTRL PENINSULA MON/MON NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW PRES
WAVE RIDES ENE-NE ALONG THE BDRY.

BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/LOCATION OF THE FRONT...GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFS (EVEN AMONG THE ECM/CMC) POPS ARE BROAD BRUSHED
20-30 BOTH MON-MON NIGHT...BUT COULD EVENTUALLY WIND UP HIGHER FOR
ONE OR BOTH OF THOSE PERIODS.

SAT MAY BE THE WARMEST OF THE 7-DAY PD. HIGHS IN THE M70S NORTH AND
U70S CTRL-SOUTH...POTENTIALLY FALLING BACK A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES FROM
THESE NUMBERS SUN-MON BEHIND/INVOF THE FRONT DEPENDING ON EVENTUAL
PLACEMENT. MINS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG
WITH THE FRONT ITSELF 08Z-13Z. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SINCE DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT/WED...OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES A BIT AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONT TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CAUTION CONDITIONS
(15-20 KNOTS) OFFSHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5
FT WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN NW BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY WED BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT WIND SURGE. PRES GRAD WILL SUPPORT 10-12 KT OFFSHORE
WED AFTN.

WED NIGHT-SAT...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WNW/NW FLOW THRU THU NIGHT...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY ON
FRI...SE/S FRI NIGHT AND PERHAPS S/SSW ON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP INTO THE 30S WED AND THU OVER THE NORTH
INTERIOR...BUT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES/DURATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...WITH NOSIG WINDSPEED OR ERC ISSUES. DISPERSION INDICES
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR AT BEST DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  53  68  46  68 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  54  72  49  72 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  53  71  50  71 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  50  73  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  53  69  47  69 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  54  70  48  71 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  56  71  50  71 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  49  73  51  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK








000
FXUS62 KJAX 161949
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

BAND OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT AS IT ENTERS A DRIER AIRMASS. THE FRONT ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z...THEN
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 06Z. WITH MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT SEA FOG TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...THE FOG WHICH DEVELOPS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...A LITTLE WARMER
FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WED THROUGH THU NIGHT/...FLAT ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE INTERIOR
SE U.S. OVER SE COASTAL STATES.  NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A DRY WNW FLOW 10 MPH OR LESS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BUMP UP  SLIGHTLY WARMER THU NIGHT WITH VALUES IN LOW/MID 40S INLAND
TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER NNE AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH/HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SCENARIO EDGES
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WITH INCREASING TEMPS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE...SOME LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS
ARE ANTICIPATED WINDS VEER TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM. COULD SEE A LATE AFTN SHOWER
NEAR AND ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WHERE A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS FRI WILL
RANGE IN THE 60S WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW/MID 50S WITH SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS/FOG MOVING INLAND FROM
THE GULF.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A NORTHERN CONUS SHORTWAVE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL START MIGRATING ACROSS THE SE GA AND NE FL
BY MAINLY SAT AFTN WITH 30-50% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST AREAS
STRATIFYING WITH HIGHER AND LIKELY POPS TOWARD INTERIOR SE GA.
DYNAMICS/LIFT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING WITH A
SLOW MOVING FRONT ZONE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE GA. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH POPS MAINLY IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NE
U.S. PUSHING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE NERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE/GA TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL
DRAG A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO A COOLER AND MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STARTS OVER TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT TAPPING A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY WITH
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS IS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SINCE RAINFALL IN LATE
NOVEMBER. QPF TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD PER WPC LOOKS BE BETWEEN .75
AND 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BEST RAINFALL
SOUTH OF I-10. AS THE SOUTHERN SHORT STREAM PASSES EAST OF PENINSULA
WINDS WILL BACK ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
NO FREEZES.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
CLOUDS LOWER NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH MAY RESTRICT CONDITIONS FOR A WHILE UNTIL THE
FRONT PASSES AND CLEARS OUT THE FOG.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE W AND THEN NW TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE HOISTED A SCA TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5 FT AT THE 50 TO 60 NM RANGE
WITH WINDS PREVAILING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE MARINE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASE WED THROUGH THU AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY WORSEN TO CAUTION LEVELS OR LOW END SCA ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW SWELL HEIGHTS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  62  38  62 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  45  60  44  61 /  30   0   0   0
JAX  45  64  41  65 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  47  62  45  63 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  47  67  40  66 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  48  68  40  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

CORDERO/STRUBLE/WALKER






000
FXUS62 KJAX 161949
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
249 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

BAND OF PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT AS IT ENTERS A DRIER AIRMASS. THE FRONT ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO ENTER NORTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND 00Z...THEN
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 06Z. WITH MILD SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT SEA FOG TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND MOVE INTO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERSTATE 75
CORRIDOR. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...THE FOG WHICH DEVELOPS IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE.

LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S...A LITTLE WARMER
FAR SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../WED THROUGH THU NIGHT/...FLAT ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE FROM THE INTERIOR
SE U.S. OVER SE COASTAL STATES.  NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND A DRY WNW FLOW 10 MPH OR LESS. MIN TEMPS WILL
BUMP UP  SLIGHTLY WARMER THU NIGHT WITH VALUES IN LOW/MID 40S INLAND
TO UPPER 40S/LOW 50S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
VEER NNE AS A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH/HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE SCENARIO EDGES
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WITH INCREASING TEMPS AND
SHALLOW MOISTURE...SOME LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPS
ARE ANTICIPATED WINDS VEER TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING GULF COAST STORM SYSTEM. COULD SEE A LATE AFTN SHOWER
NEAR AND ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BASIN WHERE A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM. HIGHS FRI WILL
RANGE IN THE 60S WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW/MID 50S WITH SOME LATE NIGHT STRATUS/FOG MOVING INLAND FROM
THE GULF.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A NORTHERN CONUS SHORTWAVE...
PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL START MIGRATING ACROSS THE SE GA AND NE FL
BY MAINLY SAT AFTN WITH 30-50% RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST AREAS
STRATIFYING WITH HIGHER AND LIKELY POPS TOWARD INTERIOR SE GA.
DYNAMICS/LIFT WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING WITH A
SLOW MOVING FRONT ZONE SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SE GA. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT WITH POPS MAINLY IN THE 20 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE. THE LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NE
U.S. PUSHING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE NERN GULF COAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE/GA TO OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS BY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL
DRAG A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LEADING TO A COOLER AND MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM STARTS OVER TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT TAPPING A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WITH GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION STREAMING ACROSS THE GULF. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF ON TUESDAY WITH
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE CONTINUING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS IS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SINCE RAINFALL IN LATE
NOVEMBER. QPF TOTALS DURING THIS PERIOD PER WPC LOOKS BE BETWEEN .75
AND 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BEST RAINFALL
SOUTH OF I-10. AS THE SOUTHERN SHORT STREAM PASSES EAST OF PENINSULA
WINDS WILL BACK ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.  TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
NO FREEZES.


&&

.AVIATION...

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
CLOUDS LOWER NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SEA FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM THE GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH MAY RESTRICT CONDITIONS FOR A WHILE UNTIL THE
FRONT PASSES AND CLEARS OUT THE FOG.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS INCREASE FROM THE W AND THEN NW TONIGHT WITH A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE HOISTED A SCA TONIGHT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS TONIGHT WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 5 FT AT THE 50 TO 60 NM RANGE
WITH WINDS PREVAILING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS OVER THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE MARINE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASE WED THROUGH THU AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY WORSEN TO CAUTION LEVELS OR LOW END SCA ONCE AGAIN
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW SWELL HEIGHTS AND
OFFSHORE FLOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  62  38  62 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  45  60  44  61 /  30   0   0   0
JAX  45  64  41  65 /  20   0   0   0
SGJ  47  62  45  63 /  20   0   0   0
GNV  47  67  40  66 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  48  68  40  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20
     NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

CORDERO/STRUBLE/WALKER







000
FXUS62 KTBW 161937
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
237 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
S/WV PUSHING OFF THE MID ATL COAST OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH AN ASSOC
WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING (PWS UP TO 1.2") AND
CONVERGENCE FOR A THIN/BKN LINE OF SHRA AND SOME OF THESE ARE
EVIDENT ON RADAR. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAM)
CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLD TO SCT SHRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY
ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH OF TPA WHEN PRECIP DISSIPATES. LIKE LOCAL CAM NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBS BEST AND WILL POPULATE THESE INTO GRIDS FOR TONIGHTS
FORECAST. DEVELOPING WRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLING WITH DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO POSSIBLY REACH MID-UPR 60S OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF ADVECTIVE/SEA FOG EVENT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
UNCLEAR WHETHER LAND AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF A LOW CIG OR ACTUAL
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WILL SHOW AREAS OF FOG AND BKN SKIES TO COVER
POTENTIAL OF COMBINATION OF THE TWO. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MEANS NRN AREAS CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BEFORE SUNRISE WHILE LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER A LITTLE
LATER INTO THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. LEANING TOWARD WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS GIVEN TIMING OF FROPA. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WED WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY
PLEASANT DAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PLEASANT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND NORTHERN GULF WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES (POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF CANADIAN AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND FASTER WITH
THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND PASSAGE (EARLY ON SUNDAY) AS THEY BOTH
DEVELOP A DEEPER LOW OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE
GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE LOW AND IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT MOVING
IT INTO THE NATURE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY THEN STALLING IT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS COME BACK INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTH TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING INTO THE
1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE) POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE DEEP
LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LIFT
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS AN INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT FROM FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL ALL AID IN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE REGION
WITH AN OVERRUNNING EVENT...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTING POPS
RISING INTO THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW VEERS INTO
THE SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN ISSUE FOR MARINE INTERESTS IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
SEA FOG EVENT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.
OTHERWISE NO MARINE CONCERNS AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS
BEHIND WEEK FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK NRLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE
REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK. WEAK TO MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...BUT
WINDS CURRENTLY REMAIN AOB 15 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING WRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/AHEAD
OF WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
ADVECTIVE/SEA FOG EVENT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH UNCLEAR WHETHER LAND
AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF A LOW CIG OR ACTUAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOS
FORECASTS SHOW LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH TO
FORECAST CONDITIONS THAT LOW. INSTEAD...WILL STICK WITH IFR FORECAST
FOR NOW TONIGHT AND EARLY WED FOR TAMPA BAY AREA TAFS. WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS AT MVFR LEVELS IN FMY AREA SITES WHERE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG IS LOWER. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT WHICH MEANS NRN AREAS CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEFORE
SUNRISE WHILE LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER A LITTLE LATER INTO THE
MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  71  50  69 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  54  76  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  55  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  56  70  50  70 /  20  10   0   0
BKV  50  70  37  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  70  55  69 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GITTINGER
LONG TERM...MCMICHAEL
MARINE...GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 161937
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
237 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
S/WV PUSHING OFF THE MID ATL COAST OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH AN ASSOC
WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING (PWS UP TO 1.2") AND
CONVERGENCE FOR A THIN/BKN LINE OF SHRA AND SOME OF THESE ARE
EVIDENT ON RADAR. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAM)
CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLD TO SCT SHRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY
ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH OF TPA WHEN PRECIP DISSIPATES. LIKE LOCAL CAM NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBS BEST AND WILL POPULATE THESE INTO GRIDS FOR TONIGHTS
FORECAST. DEVELOPING WRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLING WITH DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO POSSIBLY REACH MID-UPR 60S OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF ADVECTIVE/SEA FOG EVENT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
UNCLEAR WHETHER LAND AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF A LOW CIG OR ACTUAL
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WILL SHOW AREAS OF FOG AND BKN SKIES TO COVER
POTENTIAL OF COMBINATION OF THE TWO. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MEANS NRN AREAS CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BEFORE SUNRISE WHILE LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER A LITTLE
LATER INTO THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. LEANING TOWARD WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS GIVEN TIMING OF FROPA. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WED WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY
PLEASANT DAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PLEASANT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND NORTHERN GULF WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES (POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF CANADIAN AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND FASTER WITH
THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND PASSAGE (EARLY ON SUNDAY) AS THEY BOTH
DEVELOP A DEEPER LOW OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE
GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE LOW AND IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT MOVING
IT INTO THE NATURE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY THEN STALLING IT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS COME BACK INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTH TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING INTO THE
1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE) POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE DEEP
LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LIFT
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS AN INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT FROM FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL ALL AID IN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE REGION
WITH AN OVERRUNNING EVENT...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTING POPS
RISING INTO THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW VEERS INTO
THE SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN ISSUE FOR MARINE INTERESTS IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
SEA FOG EVENT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.
OTHERWISE NO MARINE CONCERNS AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS
BEHIND WEEK FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK NRLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE
REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK. WEAK TO MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...BUT
WINDS CURRENTLY REMAIN AOB 15 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING WRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/AHEAD
OF WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
ADVECTIVE/SEA FOG EVENT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH UNCLEAR WHETHER LAND
AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF A LOW CIG OR ACTUAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOS
FORECASTS SHOW LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH TO
FORECAST CONDITIONS THAT LOW. INSTEAD...WILL STICK WITH IFR FORECAST
FOR NOW TONIGHT AND EARLY WED FOR TAMPA BAY AREA TAFS. WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS AT MVFR LEVELS IN FMY AREA SITES WHERE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG IS LOWER. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT WHICH MEANS NRN AREAS CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEFORE
SUNRISE WHILE LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER A LITTLE LATER INTO THE
MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  71  50  69 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  54  76  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  55  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  56  70  50  70 /  20  10   0   0
BKV  50  70  37  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  70  55  69 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GITTINGER
LONG TERM...MCMICHAEL
MARINE...GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 161937
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
237 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
S/WV PUSHING OFF THE MID ATL COAST OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH AN ASSOC
WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING (PWS UP TO 1.2") AND
CONVERGENCE FOR A THIN/BKN LINE OF SHRA AND SOME OF THESE ARE
EVIDENT ON RADAR. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAM)
CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLD TO SCT SHRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY
ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH OF TPA WHEN PRECIP DISSIPATES. LIKE LOCAL CAM NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBS BEST AND WILL POPULATE THESE INTO GRIDS FOR TONIGHTS
FORECAST. DEVELOPING WRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLING WITH DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO POSSIBLY REACH MID-UPR 60S OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF ADVECTIVE/SEA FOG EVENT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
UNCLEAR WHETHER LAND AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF A LOW CIG OR ACTUAL
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WILL SHOW AREAS OF FOG AND BKN SKIES TO COVER
POTENTIAL OF COMBINATION OF THE TWO. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MEANS NRN AREAS CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BEFORE SUNRISE WHILE LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER A LITTLE
LATER INTO THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. LEANING TOWARD WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS GIVEN TIMING OF FROPA. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WED WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY
PLEASANT DAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PLEASANT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND NORTHERN GULF WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES (POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF CANADIAN AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND FASTER WITH
THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND PASSAGE (EARLY ON SUNDAY) AS THEY BOTH
DEVELOP A DEEPER LOW OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE
GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE LOW AND IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT MOVING
IT INTO THE NATURE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY THEN STALLING IT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS COME BACK INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTH TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING INTO THE
1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE) POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE DEEP
LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LIFT
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS AN INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT FROM FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL ALL AID IN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE REGION
WITH AN OVERRUNNING EVENT...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTING POPS
RISING INTO THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW VEERS INTO
THE SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN ISSUE FOR MARINE INTERESTS IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
SEA FOG EVENT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.
OTHERWISE NO MARINE CONCERNS AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS
BEHIND WEEK FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK NRLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE
REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK. WEAK TO MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...BUT
WINDS CURRENTLY REMAIN AOB 15 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING WRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/AHEAD
OF WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
ADVECTIVE/SEA FOG EVENT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH UNCLEAR WHETHER LAND
AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF A LOW CIG OR ACTUAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOS
FORECASTS SHOW LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH TO
FORECAST CONDITIONS THAT LOW. INSTEAD...WILL STICK WITH IFR FORECAST
FOR NOW TONIGHT AND EARLY WED FOR TAMPA BAY AREA TAFS. WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS AT MVFR LEVELS IN FMY AREA SITES WHERE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG IS LOWER. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT WHICH MEANS NRN AREAS CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEFORE
SUNRISE WHILE LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER A LITTLE LATER INTO THE
MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  71  50  69 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  54  76  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  55  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  56  70  50  70 /  20  10   0   0
BKV  50  70  37  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  70  55  69 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GITTINGER
LONG TERM...MCMICHAEL
MARINE...GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 161937
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
237 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
S/WV PUSHING OFF THE MID ATL COAST OVERNIGHT WILL PUSH AN ASSOC
WEAK COLD FRONT BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WED. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE POOLING (PWS UP TO 1.2") AND
CONVERGENCE FOR A THIN/BKN LINE OF SHRA AND SOME OF THESE ARE
EVIDENT ON RADAR. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAM)
CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLD TO SCT SHRA ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAINLY
ACROSS THE WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES UNTIL THE BOUNDARY PUSHES
SOUTH OF TPA WHEN PRECIP DISSIPATES. LIKE LOCAL CAM NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBS BEST AND WILL POPULATE THESE INTO GRIDS FOR TONIGHTS
FORECAST. DEVELOPING WRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLING WITH DEWPOINTS
FORECAST TO POSSIBLY REACH MID-UPR 60S OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF ADVECTIVE/SEA FOG EVENT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH
UNCLEAR WHETHER LAND AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF A LOW CIG OR ACTUAL
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. WILL SHOW AREAS OF FOG AND BKN SKIES TO COVER
POTENTIAL OF COMBINATION OF THE TWO. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MEANS NRN AREAS CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BEFORE SUNRISE WHILE LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER A LITTLE
LATER INTO THE MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF. LEANING TOWARD WARMER
GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHTS LOWS GIVEN TIMING OF FROPA. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WED WILL PROVIDE A SUNNY
PLEASANT DAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO AND WASH OUT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT PLEASANT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NEAR SEASONAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE
COMPLICATED. HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND AN ATTENDANT DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND NORTHERN GULF WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES (POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT) FOR SOME
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF CANADIAN AND GFS DIFFER WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN DEEPER WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND FASTER WITH
THE FRONTAL MOVEMENT AND PASSAGE (EARLY ON SUNDAY) AS THEY BOTH
DEVELOP A DEEPER LOW OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WHILE THE
GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE LOW AND IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT MOVING
IT INTO THE NATURE COAST EARLY ON SUNDAY THEN STALLING IT OUT ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEEING THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREFER THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION
FOR NOW.

DURING MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS COME BACK INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTH TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF. MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE (PW`S INCREASING INTO THE
1.6 TO 1.8 INCH RANGE) POOLING ALONG THE FRONT WITHIN THE DEEP
LAYERED SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING LIFT
FROM THE SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW AS WELL AS AN INCREASING
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT FROM FAVORABLE UPPER JET POSITION OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL ALL AID IN KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THESE FEATURES AFFECT THE REGION
WITH AN OVERRUNNING EVENT...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTING POPS
RISING INTO THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE FLOW VEERS INTO
THE SOUTH WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN ISSUE FOR MARINE INTERESTS IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
SEA FOG EVENT BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 8 AM AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.
OTHERWISE NO MARINE CONCERNS AS WINDS REMAIN BELOW CAUTION LEVELS
BEHIND WEEK FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK NRLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE
REMAINDER OF WORK WEEK. WEAK TO MODERATE SRLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...BUT
WINDS CURRENTLY REMAIN AOB 15 KNOTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEVELOPING WRLY FLOW AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG/AHEAD
OF WEAK FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
ADVECTIVE/SEA FOG EVENT OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH UNCLEAR WHETHER LAND
AREAS WILL SEE MORE OF A LOW CIG OR ACTUAL VSBY RESTRICTIONS. MOS
FORECASTS SHOW LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BUT NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH TO
FORECAST CONDITIONS THAT LOW. INSTEAD...WILL STICK WITH IFR FORECAST
FOR NOW TONIGHT AND EARLY WED FOR TAMPA BAY AREA TAFS. WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS AT MVFR LEVELS IN FMY AREA SITES WHERE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG IS LOWER. ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BEHIND
THE FRONT WHICH MEANS NRN AREAS CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEFORE
SUNRISE WHILE LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LINGER A LITTLE LATER INTO THE
MORNING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  57  71  50  69 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  54  76  55  76 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  55  72  49  71 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  56  70  50  70 /  20  10   0   0
BKV  50  70  37  70 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  60  70  55  69 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GITTINGER
LONG TERM...MCMICHAEL
MARINE...GARCIA







000
FXUS62 KKEY 161856
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
156 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY SUBTLE CONFLUENT AREA IS KEEPING A THIN LINE OF STRATOCU
ELONGATED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...ORIENTED NE/SW ABOUT 20 MILES
OFFSHORE FROM THE UPPER KEYS. BUT KBYX RADAR IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION
ECHOES. THE REMAINDER OF THE SERVICE AREA IS SUNNY...WITH GENTLE
NORTHEAST BREEZES AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 70S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN
NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS UNDER AN
ELONGATED AND COMPLEX MID TO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM STRETCHED BETWEEN
THOSE AREAS. LOCALLY...ELONGATED HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
RESILIENT ENOUGH TO SHUNT ANY REINFORCING COOLER AIR BEHIND A TROUGH
DRAPING ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THIS WORK
WEEK. WE WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
THE NEXT TWO OVERNIGHT PERIODS...THANKS TO THE MODERATING RESIDENT
AIRMASS. BUT A TREND TOWARD AVERAGE CONTINUES WITH PRACTICALLY A NIL
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

BY SATURDAY...MORE AMPLE MOISTURE IS TAPPED AS OUR STEERING FLOW
VEERS DEEPLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS LOW TRANSITIONS QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST
AND OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY. THE TRAILING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DO
LITTLE TO MODIFY THE LOCAL AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FORECAST PROFILES BARELY NOTICE ANY DISTURBANCE TO THE THERMAL
CONDITIONS AS THIS FEATURE FADES IN OUR LATITUDE. EXTENDED ECMWF AND
GFS MOS TEMPERATURES EVEN CONTINUE AN UPWARD TREND THROUGH THEN.
PRECIPITATION-WISE...WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION MENTIONED FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT RELATIVELY PLEASANT RECREATIONAL BOATING IN ALL WATERS
SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE DURATION OF THIS WEEK WITH WINDS
REMAINING GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST. WINDS MAY MODERATE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY...WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
THE DEEP SOUTH. BUT NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES FOR SMALL
CRAFT ARE EXPECTED FOR ANYWHERE ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE EYW AND MTH TERMINALS.
GENTLE TO LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZES AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL PRECLUDE
CROSSWIND IMPACTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...DECEMBER 16TH...ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS CLIMATE
HISTORY...IN 1947...THE DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85F WAS
LAST RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIM POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  63  75  64  75 / -  -  -  -
MARATHON  63  75  64  75 / -  -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....CLR
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 161852
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  55  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  57  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            58  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           53  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 161852
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  55  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  57  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            58  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           53  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 161739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
BENIGN PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY GIVES A VFR
FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES. A SHALLOW SLICE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA WEAK COLD FRONT, MAY THROW A FEW CLOUDS OUR
WAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A VERY QUIET WEATHER REGIME CONTINUING. THE MID-
LATITUDES WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND RAPIDLY
BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT DOES SO. THE FRONT WILL REACH NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. NO WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE
CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE 12Z
ECMWF RUN SHOWED THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SATURDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST 0Z RUN NOW STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL
MAINTAIN THEREFORE SOME CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST AND GO WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE. ALSO, IF
THE FRONT DOES STALL, THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS CHANGE.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  76  59  74 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  60  76  61  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  76 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           56  73  56  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 161739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
BENIGN PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY GIVES A VFR
FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES. A SHALLOW SLICE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA WEAK COLD FRONT, MAY THROW A FEW CLOUDS OUR
WAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A VERY QUIET WEATHER REGIME CONTINUING. THE MID-
LATITUDES WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND RAPIDLY
BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT DOES SO. THE FRONT WILL REACH NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. NO WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE
CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE 12Z
ECMWF RUN SHOWED THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SATURDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST 0Z RUN NOW STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL
MAINTAIN THEREFORE SOME CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST AND GO WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE. ALSO, IF
THE FRONT DOES STALL, THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS CHANGE.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  76  59  74 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  60  76  61  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  76 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           56  73  56  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 161739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
BENIGN PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY GIVES A VFR
FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES. A SHALLOW SLICE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA WEAK COLD FRONT, MAY THROW A FEW CLOUDS OUR
WAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A VERY QUIET WEATHER REGIME CONTINUING. THE MID-
LATITUDES WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND RAPIDLY
BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT DOES SO. THE FRONT WILL REACH NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. NO WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE
CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE 12Z
ECMWF RUN SHOWED THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SATURDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST 0Z RUN NOW STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL
MAINTAIN THEREFORE SOME CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST AND GO WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE. ALSO, IF
THE FRONT DOES STALL, THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS CHANGE.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  76  59  74 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  60  76  61  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  76 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           56  73  56  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 161739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
BENIGN PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY GIVES A VFR
FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES. A SHALLOW SLICE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA WEAK COLD FRONT, MAY THROW A FEW CLOUDS OUR
WAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A VERY QUIET WEATHER REGIME CONTINUING. THE MID-
LATITUDES WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND RAPIDLY
BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT DOES SO. THE FRONT WILL REACH NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. NO WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE
CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE 12Z
ECMWF RUN SHOWED THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SATURDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST 0Z RUN NOW STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL
MAINTAIN THEREFORE SOME CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST AND GO WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE. ALSO, IF
THE FRONT DOES STALL, THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS CHANGE.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  76  59  74 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  60  76  61  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  76 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           56  73  56  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...84/AK



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