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000
FXUS62 KJAX 271439
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...700-300 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA. EXPECTING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND GULF COAST SEABREEZE
TO MERGE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) EXTENDING ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JESUP GEORGIA TO LAKE CITY FLORIDA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH MAIN
IMPACT BEING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO
WILL KEEP SILENT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 80S BEACHES...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE FL
AND SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITION THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  91  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  91  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KJAX 271439
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...700-300 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA. EXPECTING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND GULF COAST SEABREEZE
TO MERGE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) EXTENDING ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JESUP GEORGIA TO LAKE CITY FLORIDA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH MAIN
IMPACT BEING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO
WILL KEEP SILENT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 80S BEACHES...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE FL
AND SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITION THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  91  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  91  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KJAX 271439
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...700-300 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA. EXPECTING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND GULF COAST SEABREEZE
TO MERGE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) EXTENDING ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JESUP GEORGIA TO LAKE CITY FLORIDA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH MAIN
IMPACT BEING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO
WILL KEEP SILENT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 80S BEACHES...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE FL
AND SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITION THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  91  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  91  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KJAX 271439
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...700-300 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA. EXPECTING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND GULF COAST SEABREEZE
TO MERGE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) EXTENDING ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JESUP GEORGIA TO LAKE CITY FLORIDA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH MAIN
IMPACT BEING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO
WILL KEEP SILENT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 80S BEACHES...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE FL
AND SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITION THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  91  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  91  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KJAX 271439
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...700-300 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA. EXPECTING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND GULF COAST SEABREEZE
TO MERGE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) EXTENDING ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JESUP GEORGIA TO LAKE CITY FLORIDA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH MAIN
IMPACT BEING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO
WILL KEEP SILENT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 80S BEACHES...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE FL
AND SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITION THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  91  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  91  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/GUILLET



000
FXUS62 KJAX 271439
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1039 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...700-300 MB STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE PANHANDLE
OF FLORIDA. EXPECTING ATLANTIC SEABREEZE AND GULF COAST SEABREEZE
TO MERGE OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
WITH BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) EXTENDING ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM JESUP GEORGIA TO LAKE CITY FLORIDA DURING
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED AREA WITH MAIN
IMPACT BEING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT MOVES INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO
WILL KEEP SILENT IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE MID 80S BEACHES...TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NE FL
AND SE GA.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT
RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL
ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE. MAINLY VFR
CONDITION THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  88  66  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  91  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  91  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

WOLF/CORDERO/GUILLET



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 271423
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1023 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...INTERMEDIATE MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING STILL DEPICT AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MEANDERING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
MID LEVEL VORT MAX THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE BIG BEND - NATURE COAST REGION
TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE... WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE... NUDGED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE NATURE
COAST GIVEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK TODAY. 12Z TBW SOUNDING CAME IN DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH A DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WILL SUPPORT
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  90  74  88  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 271423
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1023 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...INTERMEDIATE MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING STILL DEPICT AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MEANDERING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
MID LEVEL VORT MAX THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE BIG BEND - NATURE COAST REGION
TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE... WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE... NUDGED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE NATURE
COAST GIVEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK TODAY. 12Z TBW SOUNDING CAME IN DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH A DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WILL SUPPORT
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  90  74  88  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA



000
FXUS62 KTBW 271423
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1023 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...INTERMEDIATE MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING STILL DEPICT AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MEANDERING OFF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
MID LEVEL VORT MAX THAT IS SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE BIG BEND - NATURE COAST REGION
TODAY WHICH WOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME BETTER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE... WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE MORNING UPDATE... NUDGED UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE NATURE
COAST GIVEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON
TRACK TODAY. 12Z TBW SOUNDING CAME IN DRIER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS
WITH A DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL INVERSION WHICH WILL SUPPORT
DECREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  90  74  88  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...20/BARRON
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTAE 271407
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1007 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ARE USHERING IN A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF...CAUSING
PWAT VALUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG THE BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE DUE TO THE GULF COAST
SEABREEZE AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA ZONES. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY...INDICATING THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SHOWS SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND THERE IS NO COLD
POOL MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LIKE THERE WAS YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT LESS THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY] REMAINING LOW CEILINGS AT SOME
TERMINALS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [630 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   84  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        88  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  85  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271407
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1007 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND LOWER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ARE USHERING IN A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF...CAUSING
PWAT VALUES TO BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ALONG THE BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE DUE TO THE GULF COAST
SEABREEZE AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA ZONES. SPC HAS THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER TODAY...INDICATING THAT ISOLATED STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SHOWS SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AND THERE IS NO COLD
POOL MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LIKE THERE WAS YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT LESS THAN YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH AS MENTIONED AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY] REMAINING LOW CEILINGS AT SOME
TERMINALS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [630 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   86  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   84  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        88  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  85  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 271339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. TODAY, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT SUFFICIENTLY THAT
EVEN THE LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS NOT DEVELOPED. BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW,
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY, WITH SOME OF THE INTERIOR AREAS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT RH IN THE AFTERNOON. TOGETHER
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, IT MAY RAISE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WITH ON GOING FIRES IN THE INTERIOR OF THE
STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
GET NEAR KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MEETS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREA. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR NAPLES
TODAY IS 91 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1998 AND 1978. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION AGAIN FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX
SOME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN AROUND 1
INCH. THIS FORECAST PWAT VALUE IS STILL NEAR THE MINIMUM PWAT
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS OVER SOUTH FL0RIDA WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE CAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

MARINE...
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...AN SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC...GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            88  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           91  71  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPING THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. TODAY, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT SUFFICIENTLY THAT
EVEN THE LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS NOT DEVELOPED. BETWEEN TODAY AND TOMORROW,
CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY, WITH SOME OF THE INTERIOR AREAS HAVING THE
POTENTIAL TO DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT RH IN THE AFTERNOON. TOGETHER
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED, IT MAY RAISE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY WITH ON GOING FIRES IN THE INTERIOR OF THE
STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
GET NEAR KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MEETS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREA. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR NAPLES
TODAY IS 91 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1998 AND 1978. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION AGAIN FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX
SOME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN AROUND 1
INCH. THIS FORECAST PWAT VALUE IS STILL NEAR THE MINIMUM PWAT
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS OVER SOUTH FL0RIDA WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE CAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

MARINE...
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...AN SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC...GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            88  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           91  71  90  70 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 271300
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

DRY AND BREEZY EAST FLOW REMAINS THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
LINES OR PRECIP THIS MORNING. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS AROUND
ONE INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE RECORD MINIMUM PWAT FOR THE DAY. ADDED
TO THIS A RATHER ROBUST INVERSION IS IN PLACE AROUND 3000FT.

THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A WEAK VORT MAX TRAVELING IN THE
EAST FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING WHICH MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS MOVING INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING. UNTIL THIS
FEATURE ARRIVES...FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...AND EVEN WITH IT DON`T
EXPECT MORE THAN A SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
AND PERHAPS COAST TOWARDS SUNSET.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-
LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ANTICIPATED HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z WITH
DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AT 10-15KTS WITH
BUOYS SHOWING HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES. 3-4 FT SEAS WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS 6-7SEC THIS MORNING...BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY WITH FRESH SWELL COMING IN AND PERIODS LENGTHENING
TO AROUND 8 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED AT ALL FOUR
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY TUESDAY MAY 26TH.

LOC  DATE   MIN        PREV HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  76 *        73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 (TIE)    74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  79 *        78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  77 *        76 1991
* NEW RECORD SET

WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY...
DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271300
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

DRY AND BREEZY EAST FLOW REMAINS THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
LINES OR PRECIP THIS MORNING. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS AROUND
ONE INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE RECORD MINIMUM PWAT FOR THE DAY. ADDED
TO THIS A RATHER ROBUST INVERSION IS IN PLACE AROUND 3000FT.

THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A WEAK VORT MAX TRAVELING IN THE
EAST FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING WHICH MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS MOVING INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING. UNTIL THIS
FEATURE ARRIVES...FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...AND EVEN WITH IT DON`T
EXPECT MORE THAN A SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
AND PERHAPS COAST TOWARDS SUNSET.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-
LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ANTICIPATED HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z WITH
DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AT 10-15KTS WITH
BUOYS SHOWING HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES. 3-4 FT SEAS WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS 6-7SEC THIS MORNING...BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY WITH FRESH SWELL COMING IN AND PERIODS LENGTHENING
TO AROUND 8 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED AT ALL FOUR
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY TUESDAY MAY 26TH.

LOC  DATE   MIN        PREV HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  76 *        73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 (TIE)    74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  79 *        78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  77 *        76 1991
* NEW RECORD SET

WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY...
DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271300
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

DRY AND BREEZY EAST FLOW REMAINS THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
LINES OR PRECIP THIS MORNING. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS AROUND
ONE INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE RECORD MINIMUM PWAT FOR THE DAY. ADDED
TO THIS A RATHER ROBUST INVERSION IS IN PLACE AROUND 3000FT.

THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A WEAK VORT MAX TRAVELING IN THE
EAST FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING WHICH MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS MOVING INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING. UNTIL THIS
FEATURE ARRIVES...FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...AND EVEN WITH IT DON`T
EXPECT MORE THAN A SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
AND PERHAPS COAST TOWARDS SUNSET.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-
LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ANTICIPATED HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z WITH
DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AT 10-15KTS WITH
BUOYS SHOWING HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES. 3-4 FT SEAS WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS 6-7SEC THIS MORNING...BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY WITH FRESH SWELL COMING IN AND PERIODS LENGTHENING
TO AROUND 8 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED AT ALL FOUR
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY TUESDAY MAY 26TH.

LOC  DATE   MIN        PREV HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  76 *        73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 (TIE)    74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  79 *        78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  77 *        76 1991
* NEW RECORD SET

WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY...
DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 271300
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

DRY AND BREEZY EAST FLOW REMAINS THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
LINES OR PRECIP THIS MORNING. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS AROUND
ONE INCH...WHICH IS NEAR THE RECORD MINIMUM PWAT FOR THE DAY. ADDED
TO THIS A RATHER ROBUST INVERSION IS IN PLACE AROUND 3000FT.

THE ONLY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A WEAK VORT MAX TRAVELING IN THE
EAST FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING WHICH MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS MOVING INTO THE WATERS THIS EVENING. UNTIL THIS
FEATURE ARRIVES...FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY...AND EVEN WITH IT DON`T
EXPECT MORE THAN A SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWER OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
AND PERHAPS COAST TOWARDS SUNSET.

HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-
LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE ANTICIPATED HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS THROUGH 16Z WITH
DAYTIME CU DEVELOPMENT. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES AT 10-15KTS WITH
BUOYS SHOWING HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS AT TIMES. 3-4 FT SEAS WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS 6-7SEC THIS MORNING...BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE
LATE IN THE DAY WITH FRESH SWELL COMING IN AND PERIODS LENGTHENING
TO AROUND 8 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED AT ALL FOUR
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY TUESDAY MAY 26TH.

LOC  DATE   MIN        PREV HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  76 *        73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 (TIE)    74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  79 *        78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  77 *        76 1991
* NEW RECORD SET

WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY...
DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 271238
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
838 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
IT IS A WINDY DAY IN THE KEYS...BUT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
WITH HIGHS NEAR IN THE UPPER 80S...IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE DRY AIR ALOFT HAS FULLY
OVERTAKEN THE KEYS AREA WHILE EAST TEXAS IS ENCOUNTERING ANOTHER DAY
OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS
REPOSITIONED A BIT DUE TO THE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...AND AN
UPPER LOW MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WITH THE NEW
ORIENTATION TO THE RIDGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WITH NEAR 20 KNOTS AT ALL OF THE MARINE STATIONS EXCEPT 15 TO
20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BAY C-MAN STATION. THE ISLAND
TERMINALS ARE OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...
WITH THE NEW ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THE
SURGE IN WINDS THIS MORNING...HAVE EXTENDED THE BREEZY FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PEAKS AND LULLS THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BUT OVER ALL WINDS WILL BE IN THE BREEZY ARENA. THE RIDGE
WILL FINALLY BE OUT OF THE WAY BY MID DAY FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT TO PROVIDE BETTER
LIFTING...HENCE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE KEYS
AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
WITH THIS IN MIND THERE WILL BE NO CHANCES TO THE FORECAST THIS
CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN COASTAL STATES WILL
KEEP ITS HOLD ON THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE KEYS ANOTHER 36 TO 48
HOURS BEFORE WE SEE THE WINDS TRULY DECREASE. THERE WILL BE LULLS IN
THE WINDS DURING THIS NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES OUT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FLORIDA BAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. PEAKS AND LULLS IN BREEZES WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE
THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE MAINLAND DISTURBING THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WE
CAN START TO REMOVE SOME AREAS...FROM EAST THEN CONTINUING TO WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY BREEZES WILL DECREASE AND BECOMING
GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE
AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED
EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000
FEET WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1894...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 70 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 27TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 121 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ032>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS
DATA COLLECTION...............RIZZO

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 271238
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
838 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
IT IS A WINDY DAY IN THE KEYS...BUT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
WITH HIGHS NEAR IN THE UPPER 80S...IT WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE DRY AIR ALOFT HAS FULLY
OVERTAKEN THE KEYS AREA WHILE EAST TEXAS IS ENCOUNTERING ANOTHER DAY
OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HAS
REPOSITIONED A BIT DUE TO THE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...AND AN
UPPER LOW MOVING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WITH THE NEW
ORIENTATION TO THE RIDGE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WITH NEAR 20 KNOTS AT ALL OF THE MARINE STATIONS EXCEPT 15 TO
20 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BAY C-MAN STATION. THE ISLAND
TERMINALS ARE OUT OF THE EAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTING TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS.

.FORECAST...
WITH THE NEW ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE...AND THE
SURGE IN WINDS THIS MORNING...HAVE EXTENDED THE BREEZY FORECAST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE PEAKS AND LULLS THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS BUT OVER ALL WINDS WILL BE IN THE BREEZY ARENA. THE RIDGE
WILL FINALLY BE OUT OF THE WAY BY MID DAY FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL
DECREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BECOMING GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH A GOOD DIFFLUENT REGION ALOFT TO PROVIDE BETTER
LIFTING...HENCE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE KEYS
AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER
JET...WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE IN THE LOW LEVELS.
WITH THIS IN MIND THERE WILL BE NO CHANCES TO THE FORECAST THIS
CYCLE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN COASTAL STATES WILL
KEEP ITS HOLD ON THE WIND FORECAST FOR THE KEYS ANOTHER 36 TO 48
HOURS BEFORE WE SEE THE WINDS TRULY DECREASE. THERE WILL BE LULLS IN
THE WINDS DURING THIS NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES OUT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN EXTENSION IN TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FLORIDA BAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS AFTERNOON. PEAKS AND LULLS IN BREEZES WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE
THERMAL GRADIENT OVER THE MAINLAND DISTURBING THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS...BUT THESE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE WE
CAN START TO REMOVE SOME AREAS...FROM EAST THEN CONTINUING TO WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY BREEZES WILL DECREASE AND BECOMING
GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE
AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED
EAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000
FEET WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1894...THE LOW
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 70 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON MAY 27TH...A RECORD
WHICH STILL STANDS 121 YEARS LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ032>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS
DATA COLLECTION...............RIZZO

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271132
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
GET NEAR KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT...

..NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MEETS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREA. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR NAPLES
TODAY IS 91 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1998 AND 1978. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION AGAIN FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX
SOME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN AROUND 1
INCH. THIS FORECAST PWAT VALUE IS STILL NEAR THE MINIMUM PWAT
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS OVER SOUTH FL0RIDA WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE CAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

MARINE...
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...AN SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC...GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            88  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           91  71  90  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 271132
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
GET NEAR KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT...

..NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MEETS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREA. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR NAPLES
TODAY IS 91 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1998 AND 1978. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION AGAIN FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX
SOME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN AROUND 1
INCH. THIS FORECAST PWAT VALUE IS STILL NEAR THE MINIMUM PWAT
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS OVER SOUTH FL0RIDA WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE CAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

MARINE...
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...AN SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC...GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            88  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           91  71  90  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271132
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
MAINLY DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...WITH WINDS 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
GET NEAR KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015/

..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT...

..NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MEETS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREA. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR NAPLES
TODAY IS 91 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1998 AND 1978. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION AGAIN FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX
SOME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN AROUND 1
INCH. THIS FORECAST PWAT VALUE IS STILL NEAR THE MINIMUM PWAT
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS OVER SOUTH FL0RIDA WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE CAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

MARINE...
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...AN SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC...GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            88  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           91  71  90  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KTAE 271030
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY]...

THERE WAS JUST TOO MUCH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS TO ALLOW ANY SORT
OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THOUGH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [417 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH



000
FXUS62 KTAE 271030
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
630 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY]...

THERE WAS JUST TOO MUCH UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS TO ALLOW ANY SORT
OF WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. THOUGH, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [417 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH




000
FXUS62 KKEY 270852
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
452 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A REVIEW OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE REGION INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND RE-ORIENTATION OF THE
DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE HAS COMMENCED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS CHANGE HAS ALLOWED A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT TO
OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM EAST-NORTHEAST
TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. A SATELLITE-DERIVED SOUNDING FOR A POINT NEAR KEY
WEST AT 300 AM REVEALED A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.30
INCHES...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 8C AND 22C AT 850MB AND 700MB...
RESPECTIVELY. DESPITE THIS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...THE WEAKLY SHEARED
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REGIME HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO
REMAIN ERECT AND SOMEWHAT INSULATED FROM THE RAVAGES OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. A FEW SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS
AROUND MIDNIGHT DUMPING 0.11 IN BIG COPPITT KEY AND 0.03 HERE AT THE
WEATHER OFFICE IN KEY WEST BY 100 AM. PRESENT DOPPLER RADAR SCANS
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KNOTS. CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS
ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NEAR 80F...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE 70F..A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH DURING THE LAST FEW
CYCLES. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...AND WINDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY WILL REMAIN A BIT
TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND OVERALL
SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
INTERESTING DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER KEYS AS WEAKLY SHEARED 15-20-KNOT
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW A LOWER KEYS STREAMER TO DEVELOP
AND EMANATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE LOWER KEYS. THIS SETUP HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT A FEW DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS AND NONSUPERCELL
WATERSPOUTS IN THE KEY WEST-COSGROVE SHOAL REGION. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

RAIN CHANCES GO UP TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN AND THE MOIST LAYER DEEPENS.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN
FLORIDA BAY. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN FRESH EAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN SOME BY SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
TODAY. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 8 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2000...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90F WAS LAST OBSERVED AND IN 2009...THE DAILY
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 81F WAS LAST RECORDED. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  87  80  87  80 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  89  80  90  80 / 10 20 20 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-
     GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 270852
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
452 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A REVIEW OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE REGION INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND RE-ORIENTATION OF THE
DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE HAS COMMENCED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS CHANGE HAS ALLOWED A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT TO
OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM EAST-NORTHEAST
TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. A SATELLITE-DERIVED SOUNDING FOR A POINT NEAR KEY
WEST AT 300 AM REVEALED A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.30
INCHES...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 8C AND 22C AT 850MB AND 700MB...
RESPECTIVELY. DESPITE THIS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...THE WEAKLY SHEARED
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REGIME HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO
REMAIN ERECT AND SOMEWHAT INSULATED FROM THE RAVAGES OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. A FEW SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS
AROUND MIDNIGHT DUMPING 0.11 IN BIG COPPITT KEY AND 0.03 HERE AT THE
WEATHER OFFICE IN KEY WEST BY 100 AM. PRESENT DOPPLER RADAR SCANS
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KNOTS. CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS
ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NEAR 80F...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE 70F..A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH DURING THE LAST FEW
CYCLES. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...AND WINDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY WILL REMAIN A BIT
TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND OVERALL
SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
INTERESTING DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER KEYS AS WEAKLY SHEARED 15-20-KNOT
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW A LOWER KEYS STREAMER TO DEVELOP
AND EMANATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE LOWER KEYS. THIS SETUP HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT A FEW DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS AND NONSUPERCELL
WATERSPOUTS IN THE KEY WEST-COSGROVE SHOAL REGION. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

RAIN CHANCES GO UP TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN AND THE MOIST LAYER DEEPENS.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN
FLORIDA BAY. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN FRESH EAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN SOME BY SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
TODAY. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 8 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2000...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90F WAS LAST OBSERVED AND IN 2009...THE DAILY
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 81F WAS LAST RECORDED. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  87  80  87  80 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  89  80  90  80 / 10 20 20 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-
     GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 270852
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
452 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A REVIEW OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE REGION INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND RE-ORIENTATION OF THE
DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE HAS COMMENCED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS CHANGE HAS ALLOWED A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT TO
OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM EAST-NORTHEAST
TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. A SATELLITE-DERIVED SOUNDING FOR A POINT NEAR KEY
WEST AT 300 AM REVEALED A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.30
INCHES...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 8C AND 22C AT 850MB AND 700MB...
RESPECTIVELY. DESPITE THIS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...THE WEAKLY SHEARED
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REGIME HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO
REMAIN ERECT AND SOMEWHAT INSULATED FROM THE RAVAGES OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. A FEW SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS
AROUND MIDNIGHT DUMPING 0.11 IN BIG COPPITT KEY AND 0.03 HERE AT THE
WEATHER OFFICE IN KEY WEST BY 100 AM. PRESENT DOPPLER RADAR SCANS
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KNOTS. CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS
ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NEAR 80F...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE 70F..A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH DURING THE LAST FEW
CYCLES. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...AND WINDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY WILL REMAIN A BIT
TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND OVERALL
SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
INTERESTING DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER KEYS AS WEAKLY SHEARED 15-20-KNOT
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW A LOWER KEYS STREAMER TO DEVELOP
AND EMANATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE LOWER KEYS. THIS SETUP HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT A FEW DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS AND NONSUPERCELL
WATERSPOUTS IN THE KEY WEST-COSGROVE SHOAL REGION. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

RAIN CHANCES GO UP TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN AND THE MOIST LAYER DEEPENS.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN
FLORIDA BAY. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN FRESH EAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN SOME BY SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
TODAY. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 8 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2000...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90F WAS LAST OBSERVED AND IN 2009...THE DAILY
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 81F WAS LAST RECORDED. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  87  80  87  80 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  89  80  90  80 / 10 20 20 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-
     GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 270852
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
452 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A REVIEW OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE REGION INDICATES A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND RE-ORIENTATION OF THE
DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE HAS COMMENCED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS CHANGE HAS ALLOWED A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT TO
OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS FROM EAST-NORTHEAST
TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. A SATELLITE-DERIVED SOUNDING FOR A POINT NEAR KEY
WEST AT 300 AM REVEALED A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.30
INCHES...AND DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 8C AND 22C AT 850MB AND 700MB...
RESPECTIVELY. DESPITE THIS VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...THE WEAKLY SHEARED
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REGIME HAS ALLOWED ISOLATED CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO
REMAIN ERECT AND SOMEWHAT INSULATED FROM THE RAVAGES OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. A FEW SHOWERS PASSED THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER KEYS
AROUND MIDNIGHT DUMPING 0.11 IN BIG COPPITT KEY AND 0.03 HERE AT THE
WEATHER OFFICE IN KEY WEST BY 100 AM. PRESENT DOPPLER RADAR SCANS
SHOW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
MOVING WESTWARD NEAR 20 KNOTS. CURRENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN MOST KEYS
ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NEAR 80F...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES JUST
ABOVE 70F..A DROP OF A FEW DEGREES DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.

THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH DURING THE LAST FEW
CYCLES. THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE
DAYS...AND WINDS LIKELY WILL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN DURING THE THURSDAY
NIGHT-SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THE ATMOSPHERE LIKELY WILL REMAIN A BIT
TOO STABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT...AND OVERALL
SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THIS AFTERNOON MIGHT BE
INTERESTING DOWNWIND OF THE LOWER KEYS AS WEAKLY SHEARED 15-20-KNOT
EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW A LOWER KEYS STREAMER TO DEVELOP
AND EMANATE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OFF THE LOWER KEYS. THIS SETUP HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SUPPORT A FEW DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS AND NONSUPERCELL
WATERSPOUTS IN THE KEY WEST-COSGROVE SHOAL REGION. HOWEVER...LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

RAIN CHANCES GO UP TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN AND THE MOIST LAYER DEEPENS.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN
FLORIDA BAY. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS SETUP WILL MAINTAIN FRESH EAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA
KEYS COASTAL WATERS. BREEZES SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN SOME BY SATURDAY
OR SUNDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
TODAY. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 8 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 2000...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90F WAS LAST OBSERVED AND IN 2009...THE DAILY
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 81F WAS LAST RECORDED. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  87  80  87  80 / 10 20 20 20
MARATHON  89  80  90  80 / 10 20 20 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-
     GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KTAE 270817
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
SCATTERED AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS
CLOUD DEBRIS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED
THIS MORNING WILL BE ABY AND DHN. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY AFFECT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS AT SOME
POINT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270817
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
SCATTERED AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS
CLOUD DEBRIS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED
THIS MORNING WILL BE ABY AND DHN. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY AFFECT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS AT SOME
POINT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH



000
FXUS62 KTAE 270817
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
SCATTERED AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS
CLOUD DEBRIS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED
THIS MORNING WILL BE ABY AND DHN. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY AFFECT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS AT SOME
POINT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH



000
FXUS62 KTAE 270817
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV EXTENDS SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND IS SEEN WELL ON WV IMAGERY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT OF THIS IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
PREVAILING ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
IN GENERAL, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY, THOUGH MAY BECOME A BIT DISTURBED AS SOME OF THE REMNANT
+PV ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.

THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WILL PROVIDE ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TODAY, WITH
PWATS RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE LATE JUNE NORMALS. AS FAR AS
FORCING IS CONCERNED, WE`LL LIKELY SEE CONVECTION FORM ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEABREEZE FRONTS AFTER NOON TODAY, AS WELL AS ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW NEAR THE SUWANNEE VALLEY FROM LAST EVENINGS
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA. FURTHER WEST, THE SEABREEZE WILL
LIKELY INTERACT WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED +PVA. BY EVENING, CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUTFLOW
DRIVEN AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RATHER LOW ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON;
SPC`S CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK PLACES THE TRI-STATE REGION UNDER A
"MARGINAL" RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WITH LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS STEEP AS YESTERDAY, ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

A LARGE AREA OF DRIER AIR, SAMPLED BY THE 27TH/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM
MIAMI, JACKSONVILLE, AND CHARLESTON, WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA
FROM THE EAST DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DUE TO A LOW-MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
WINDS IN THE SAME LAYER SHIFTING TO THE EAST AS A RESULT. THUS,
POPS SHOULD DECREASE BOTH DAYS AND WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE WEST,
WITH A DRY FORECAST ON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND. WITH REDUCED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, WE TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE WARM END OF
GUIDANCE - IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES IN DIGGING A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW, CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST, TO THE GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES, PARTICULARLY AFTER
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY] IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE
SCATTERED AROUND THE REGION THIS MORNING. THE SUBSTANTIAL CIRRUS
CLOUD DEBRIS HAS LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINALS TO BE IMPACTED
THIS MORNING WILL BE ABY AND DHN. THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION WILL
BECOME WIDESPREAD AND LIKELY AFFECT ALL OF OUR TERMINALS AT SOME
POINT. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...

WENT WITH A SCEC HEADLINE FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE
C-TOWER AND BOTH OFFSHORE BUOYS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KNOT WINDS.
THE WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY MID-LATE MORNING. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WE SHOULD SEE REGULAR NIGHTLY INCREASES IN E-SE WINDS
FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS DURING THE DAY AND DAILY SEA BREEZES
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD APPROACH 15
KNOTS IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN FOR ANOTHER DAY OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WINDS UNDERNEATH 20,000 FEET GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS
OF 0.5 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD REACH THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE, WHICH DID OCCUR
IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NOT BE
SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING, SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY IN URBAN OR FLOOD-PRONE LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  70  92  68  92 /  70  30  20  10  10
PANAMA CITY   85  72  84  71  85 /  40  20  40  10  20
DOTHAN        89  69  89  67  89 /  70  40  40  20  20
ALBANY        87  68  90  66  90 /  60  40  30  10  10
VALDOSTA      87  67  90  64  90 /  50  20  10  10  10
CROSS CITY    90  67  90  64  90 /  30  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  84  73  86  72  84 /  40  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...AL/DH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270757
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

TODAY/TONIGHT... A MODERATE TO BREEZY AT TIMES ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TAP INTO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ABOVE 850MB THAT
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND
AN INCH AND A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER DUE TO THE ELEVATED EASTERLY
FLOW CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE WATERS...MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. ACCUMULATING RAINFALL UNLIKELY
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH AND WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...
SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THESE ANTICIPATED HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS.

THU...EAST CENTRAL FL WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW
RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE NEAR 60W AND
TROUGHING ALOFT WELL NW OF THE AREA. E/ENE LOW LVL WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS 925 MBS MAKING FOR BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW.
MOISTURE LEVELS STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FORECAST DRY...BUT
COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS MARTIN/ST
LUCIE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THU NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
MOVING WESTWARD IN THE DEEP EASTERLIES TOWARD E CENTRAL FL. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTY
COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRI...AN AREA OF MOISTURE WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES TO 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES AND MOISTURE DEPTH TO AROUND 700 MBS SHOULD COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO 15-20 KNOTS TO PRODUCE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS FOR EAST CENTRAL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MID
80S COAST TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR.

SAT-SUN...LOW LVL FLOW WILL TURN TO ESE/SE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LVLS WORKING UNDER THE MID LVL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASING EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE NEAR THE COAST AND UP TO 40 PCT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE
FAVORED. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 INTERIOR.

MON-TUE...GFS INDICATES MID LVL TROUGH NEAR ARK-LA MONDAY WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF INTO MID WEEK. LOW LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN
ESE/ONSHORE BUT MID LVL WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH TO THE WEST. WITH HEIGHT FALL AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE SHOULD RETURN TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND STILL LOWER
PRECIP CHCS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 80S COAST TO
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST
BECOMING BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS A
MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE...10-15 KTS...ACROSS THE WATERS WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS TODAY BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

THU-FRI...EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TO
4-5 FT FOR MUCH OF LATE WEEK WITH SOME OCCASIONAL 6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE
BY FRIDAY. E/ESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE JUST A BIT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED AT ALL FOUR
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY TUESDAY MAY 26TH.

LOC  DATE   MIN        PREV HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  76 *        73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 (TIE)    74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  79 *        78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  77 *        76 1991
* NEW RECORD SET

WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY...
DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  70  83  68 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  92  70  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  72  84  71 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  91  70  88  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  91  71  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  87  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER



000
FXUS62 KMLB 270757
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

TODAY/TONIGHT... A MODERATE TO BREEZY AT TIMES ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TAP INTO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ABOVE 850MB THAT
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND
AN INCH AND A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER DUE TO THE ELEVATED EASTERLY
FLOW CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE WATERS...MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. ACCUMULATING RAINFALL UNLIKELY
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH AND WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...
SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THESE ANTICIPATED HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS.

THU...EAST CENTRAL FL WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW
RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE NEAR 60W AND
TROUGHING ALOFT WELL NW OF THE AREA. E/ENE LOW LVL WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS 925 MBS MAKING FOR BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW.
MOISTURE LEVELS STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FORECAST DRY...BUT
COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS MARTIN/ST
LUCIE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THU NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
MOVING WESTWARD IN THE DEEP EASTERLIES TOWARD E CENTRAL FL. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTY
COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRI...AN AREA OF MOISTURE WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES TO 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES AND MOISTURE DEPTH TO AROUND 700 MBS SHOULD COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO 15-20 KNOTS TO PRODUCE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS FOR EAST CENTRAL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MID
80S COAST TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR.

SAT-SUN...LOW LVL FLOW WILL TURN TO ESE/SE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LVLS WORKING UNDER THE MID LVL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASING EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE NEAR THE COAST AND UP TO 40 PCT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE
FAVORED. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 INTERIOR.

MON-TUE...GFS INDICATES MID LVL TROUGH NEAR ARK-LA MONDAY WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF INTO MID WEEK. LOW LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN
ESE/ONSHORE BUT MID LVL WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH TO THE WEST. WITH HEIGHT FALL AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE SHOULD RETURN TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND STILL LOWER
PRECIP CHCS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 80S COAST TO
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST
BECOMING BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS A
MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE...10-15 KTS...ACROSS THE WATERS WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS TODAY BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

THU-FRI...EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TO
4-5 FT FOR MUCH OF LATE WEEK WITH SOME OCCASIONAL 6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE
BY FRIDAY. E/ESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE JUST A BIT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED AT ALL FOUR
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY TUESDAY MAY 26TH.

LOC  DATE   MIN        PREV HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  76 *        73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 (TIE)    74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  79 *        78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  77 *        76 1991
* NEW RECORD SET

WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY...
DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  70  83  68 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  92  70  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  72  84  71 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  91  70  88  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  91  71  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  87  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270757
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
355 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED RIP CURRENT THREAT CONTINUES INTO LATE
WEEK...

TODAY/TONIGHT... A MODERATE TO BREEZY AT TIMES ONSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TODAY AND TAP INTO A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ABOVE 850MB THAT
WILL SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE REGION. MODELS SHOW PW VALUES AROUND
AN INCH AND A FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER DUE TO THE ELEVATED EASTERLY
FLOW CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
THE WATERS...MOVING TOWARD THE COAST. ACCUMULATING RAINFALL UNLIKELY
WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH AND WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE...
SO WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR LAND AREAS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
OVER THE INTERIOR.

MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE ROUGH SURF AND ELEVATED THREAT FOR
LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THESE ANTICIPATED HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS.

THU...EAST CENTRAL FL WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NARROW
RIDGE ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW WELL OFFSHORE NEAR 60W AND
TROUGHING ALOFT WELL NW OF THE AREA. E/ENE LOW LVL WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS 925 MBS MAKING FOR BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW.
MOISTURE LEVELS STILL REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP FORECAST DRY...BUT
COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO TRYING TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS MARTIN/ST
LUCIE COUNTIES. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THU NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
MOVING WESTWARD IN THE DEEP EASTERLIES TOWARD E CENTRAL FL. WILL
KEEP A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS THE MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTY
COAST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

FRI...AN AREA OF MOISTURE WITH HIGHER PWAT VALUES TO 1.5 TO 1.6
INCHES AND MOISTURE DEPTH TO AROUND 700 MBS SHOULD COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND EASTERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO 15-20 KNOTS TO PRODUCE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHC OF STORMS FOR EAST CENTRAL.
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS MID
80S COAST TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR.

SAT-SUN...LOW LVL FLOW WILL TURN TO ESE/SE THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LVLS WORKING UNDER THE MID LVL RIDGE NORTH
OF THE AREA. WITH MOISTURE LEVELS ONLY GRADUALLY INCREASING EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES IN THE 20-30 PCT RANGE NEAR THE COAST AND UP TO 40 PCT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY WILL BE
FAVORED. HIGHS MID 80S COAST TO NEAR 90 INTERIOR.

MON-TUE...GFS INDICATES MID LVL TROUGH NEAR ARK-LA MONDAY WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF INTO MID WEEK. LOW LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN
ESE/ONSHORE BUT MID LVL WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING
TROUGH TO THE WEST. WITH HEIGHT FALL AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE
INCREASE SHOULD RETURN TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND STILL LOWER
PRECIP CHCS NEAR THE COAST WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 80S COAST TO
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS. ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST
BECOMING BREEZY ALONG THE COAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAINTAINS A
MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE...10-15 KTS...ACROSS THE WATERS WITH 3-4 FT
SEAS TODAY BUILDING UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE TONIGHT.

THU-FRI...EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TO
4-5 FT FOR MUCH OF LATE WEEK WITH SOME OCCASIONAL 6 FT SEAS OFFSHORE
BY FRIDAY. E/ESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE JUST A BIT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET OR TIED AT ALL FOUR
CLIMATE SITES YESTERDAY TUESDAY MAY 26TH.

LOC  DATE   MIN        PREV HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  76 *        73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 (TIE)    74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  79 *        78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  77 *        76 1991
* NEW RECORD SET

WARM LOW RECORDS FOR TODAY...
DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  70  83  68 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  92  70  89  69 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  72  84  71 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  70  90  70 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  91  70  88  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  91  71  88  70 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  87  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270740
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT...

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MEETS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREA. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR NAPLES
TODAY IS 91 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1998 AND 1978. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION AGAIN FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX
SOME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN AROUND 1
INCH. THIS FORECAST PWAT VALUE IS STILL NEAR THE MINIMUM PWAT
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


.LONG TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS OVER SOUTH FL0RIDA WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE CAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...AN SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC...GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            88  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           91  71  90  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 270740
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT...

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MEETS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREA. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR NAPLES
TODAY IS 91 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1998 AND 1978. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION AGAIN FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX
SOME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN AROUND 1
INCH. THIS FORECAST PWAT VALUE IS STILL NEAR THE MINIMUM PWAT
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


.LONG TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS OVER SOUTH FL0RIDA WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE CAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...AN SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC...GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            88  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           91  71  90  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 270740
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT...

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MEETS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREA. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR NAPLES
TODAY IS 91 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1998 AND 1978. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION AGAIN FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX
SOME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN AROUND 1
INCH. THIS FORECAST PWAT VALUE IS STILL NEAR THE MINIMUM PWAT
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


.LONG TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS OVER SOUTH FL0RIDA WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE CAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...AN SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC...GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            88  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           91  71  90  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 270740
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT...

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MEETS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREA. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR NAPLES
TODAY IS 91 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1998 AND 1978. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION AGAIN FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX
SOME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN AROUND 1
INCH. THIS FORECAST PWAT VALUE IS STILL NEAR THE MINIMUM PWAT
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


.LONG TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS OVER SOUTH FL0RIDA WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE CAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...AN SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC...GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            88  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           91  71  90  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 270740
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT...

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MEETS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREA. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR NAPLES
TODAY IS 91 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1998 AND 1978. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION AGAIN FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX
SOME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN AROUND 1
INCH. THIS FORECAST PWAT VALUE IS STILL NEAR THE MINIMUM PWAT
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


.LONG TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS OVER SOUTH FL0RIDA WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE CAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...AN SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC...GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            88  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           91  71  90  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270740
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TONIGHT...

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AN BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG
WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWAT VALUES DOWN AROUND 1 INCH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MINIMUM
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A QUICK PASSING LIGHT SHOWER
TODAY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
MEETS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR LOWER LOWER TO MID
90S OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREA. THE FORECAST HIGH FOR NAPLES
TODAY IS 91 WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 DEGREES SET
BACK IN 1998 AND 1978. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION AGAIN FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
TODAY.

THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL START TO BREAK
DOWN ON THURSDAY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX
SOME OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...AS THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES STILL BETWEEN AROUND 1
INCH. THIS FORECAST PWAT VALUE IS STILL NEAR THE MINIMUM PWAT
VALUES OF 0.90 TO 0.95 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON FRIDAY OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT
OF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA LEADING TO A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


.LONG TERM...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AS THE HIGH SHIFT A LITTLE BIT SOUTH.
THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND AND ALLOW FOR MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS OVER SOUTH FL0RIDA WILL INCREASE TO
CHANCE CAT THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING A POSSIBLE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS HAPPENS...DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO
WORK NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ESPECIALLY BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE
CHANCE CAT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT MAY BE NEEDED TO BE RAISE MORE IN LATER FORECAST IF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING SLOWLY TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...AN SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
ATLANTIC...GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
WINDS. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO
THE BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  73  87  73 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  75  86  75 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            88  74  87  74 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           91  71  90  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KTBW 270703
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EASTWARD
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...BUT
STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DRY NOTCH IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE MODELS HAVE THIS DRY AIR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE US
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE AT BEST...THEN DECREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM
AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS UNCHANGED DURING THE MID/LONG TERM AS SOME
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAVE SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS
THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER ON WEDNESDAY AS FAR AS
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  89  75  88  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 270703
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EASTWARD
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...BUT
STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DRY NOTCH IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE MODELS HAVE THIS DRY AIR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE US
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE AT BEST...THEN DECREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM
AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS UNCHANGED DURING THE MID/LONG TERM AS SOME
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAVE SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS
THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER ON WEDNESDAY AS FAR AS
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  89  75  88  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 270703
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EASTWARD
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...BUT
STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DRY NOTCH IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE MODELS HAVE THIS DRY AIR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE US
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE AT BEST...THEN DECREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM
AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS UNCHANGED DURING THE MID/LONG TERM AS SOME
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAVE SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS
THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER ON WEDNESDAY AS FAR AS
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  89  75  88  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 270703
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EASTWARD
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...BUT
STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DRY NOTCH IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE MODELS HAVE THIS DRY AIR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE US
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE AT BEST...THEN DECREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM
AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS UNCHANGED DURING THE MID/LONG TERM AS SOME
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAVE SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS
THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER ON WEDNESDAY AS FAR AS
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  89  75  88  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 270703
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EASTWARD
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...BUT
STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DRY NOTCH IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE MODELS HAVE THIS DRY AIR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE US
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE AT BEST...THEN DECREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM
AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS UNCHANGED DURING THE MID/LONG TERM AS SOME
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAVE SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS
THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER ON WEDNESDAY AS FAR AS
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  89  75  88  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270703
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
303 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHEN A TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MOVES EASTWARD
CAUSING A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. ON THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES SOUTHWEST ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD...OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS HIGH WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY WHEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. AS THIS LOW MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...BUT
STILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EFFECTS FROM THE FRONT WELL
TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A DRY NOTCH IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THE MODELS HAVE THIS DRY AIR MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL GIVE US
A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM ON WEDNESDAY...BUT POPS WILL BE IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE AT BEST...THEN DECREASING FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH ONLY A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. DAYTIME HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH
LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN WARM
AS WELL RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY)...
OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS UNCHANGED DURING THE MID/LONG TERM AS SOME
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
EACH AFTERNOON. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.5
AND 1.7 INCHES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MORE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO
THE SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
HAVE SINCE MOVED OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS
THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE QUIETER ON WEDNESDAY AS FAR AS
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL NOT RULE OUT A STRAY AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO RIDGE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  72  89  71 /  20  10  10  10
FMY  92  70  90  69 /  10   0   0  10
GIF  91  70  89  68 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  90  71  89  69 /  20  20  10  10
BKV  91  67  89  65 /  20  10  10   0
SPG  89  75  88  74 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KJAX 270647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST OF CONVECTION FADING AND SHOULD BE DONE
AROUND 3-4AM WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YDAY.

TODAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER INLAND CONVECTION
YDAY AND PUSH MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL LINGER ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH THIS FEATURE TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WINDS
SIMILAR TO YDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES
INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO WILL KEEP SILENT
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AND MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST IN THE E/SE SURFACE
FLOW AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHTER SPEEDS INLAND.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A
SURGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50"
ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL AND THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN
MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW TEMPORARILY
SHIFTS TO THE ENE AND THIS WILL BASICALLY ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT BUT WITH POP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT AT 10% OR LESS
HAVE KEPT IN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING HOVERS OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT OFFSHORE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND...AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 COAST. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE DECREASING. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS FLOATING AROUND IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AT KSGJ/KSSI
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR
VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  92  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  92  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ALLEN



000
FXUS62 KJAX 270647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST OF CONVECTION FADING AND SHOULD BE DONE
AROUND 3-4AM WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YDAY.

TODAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER INLAND CONVECTION
YDAY AND PUSH MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL LINGER ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH THIS FEATURE TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WINDS
SIMILAR TO YDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES
INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO WILL KEEP SILENT
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AND MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST IN THE E/SE SURFACE
FLOW AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHTER SPEEDS INLAND.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A
SURGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50"
ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL AND THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN
MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW TEMPORARILY
SHIFTS TO THE ENE AND THIS WILL BASICALLY ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT BUT WITH POP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT AT 10% OR LESS
HAVE KEPT IN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING HOVERS OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT OFFSHORE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND...AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 COAST. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE DECREASING. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS FLOATING AROUND IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AT KSGJ/KSSI
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR
VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  92  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  92  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ALLEN




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST OF CONVECTION FADING AND SHOULD BE DONE
AROUND 3-4AM WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YDAY.

TODAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER INLAND CONVECTION
YDAY AND PUSH MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL LINGER ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH THIS FEATURE TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WINDS
SIMILAR TO YDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES
INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO WILL KEEP SILENT
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AND MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST IN THE E/SE SURFACE
FLOW AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHTER SPEEDS INLAND.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A
SURGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50"
ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL AND THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN
MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW TEMPORARILY
SHIFTS TO THE ENE AND THIS WILL BASICALLY ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT BUT WITH POP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT AT 10% OR LESS
HAVE KEPT IN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING HOVERS OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT OFFSHORE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND...AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 COAST. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE DECREASING. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS FLOATING AROUND IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AT KSGJ/KSSI
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR
VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  92  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  92  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ALLEN




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST OF CONVECTION FADING AND SHOULD BE DONE
AROUND 3-4AM WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YDAY.

TODAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER INLAND CONVECTION
YDAY AND PUSH MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL LINGER ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH THIS FEATURE TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WINDS
SIMILAR TO YDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES
INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO WILL KEEP SILENT
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AND MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST IN THE E/SE SURFACE
FLOW AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHTER SPEEDS INLAND.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A
SURGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50"
ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL AND THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN
MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW TEMPORARILY
SHIFTS TO THE ENE AND THIS WILL BASICALLY ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT BUT WITH POP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT AT 10% OR LESS
HAVE KEPT IN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING HOVERS OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT OFFSHORE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND...AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 COAST. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE DECREASING. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS FLOATING AROUND IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AT KSGJ/KSSI
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR
VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  92  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  92  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ALLEN




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST OF CONVECTION FADING AND SHOULD BE DONE
AROUND 3-4AM WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YDAY.

TODAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER INLAND CONVECTION
YDAY AND PUSH MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL LINGER ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH THIS FEATURE TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WINDS
SIMILAR TO YDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES
INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO WILL KEEP SILENT
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AND MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST IN THE E/SE SURFACE
FLOW AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHTER SPEEDS INLAND.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A
SURGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50"
ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL AND THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN
MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW TEMPORARILY
SHIFTS TO THE ENE AND THIS WILL BASICALLY ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT BUT WITH POP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT AT 10% OR LESS
HAVE KEPT IN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING HOVERS OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT OFFSHORE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND...AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 COAST. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE DECREASING. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS FLOATING AROUND IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AT KSGJ/KSSI
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR
VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  92  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  92  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ALLEN




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270647
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
247 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...LAST OF CONVECTION FADING AND SHOULD BE DONE
AROUND 3-4AM WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YDAY.

TODAY...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED TRIGGER INLAND CONVECTION
YDAY AND PUSH MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE REGION
WILL LINGER ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN GEORGIA. THIS WILL HELP
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE INTERACTION OF THE WESTWARD MOVING ATLC COAST SEA
BREEZE FRONT WILL COLLIDE WITH THIS FEATURE TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL/STRONG WINDS
SIMILAR TO YDAY. MEANWHILE AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST
JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH ONLY A
BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT MOVES
INLAND BUT RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ONLY 10%...SO WILL KEEP SILENT
IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND AND MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST IN THE E/SE SURFACE
FLOW AROUND 15 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND LIGHTER SPEEDS INLAND.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT
ACROSS FAR INLAND AREAS...OTHERWISE EXPECT FAIR SKIES AND
SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RE-BUILDS IN ALOFT AND SENDS A
SURGE OF DRIER AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS LESS THAN 1.50"
ACROSS ALL OF SE GA AND NE FL AND THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN
MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION AS THE STEERING FLOW TEMPORARILY
SHIFTS TO THE ENE AND THIS WILL BASICALLY ONLY ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE INLAND MOVING ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE
FRONT BUT WITH POP GUIDANCE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT AT 10% OR LESS
HAVE KEPT IN SILENT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY
COOLER ALONG THE COAST IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES FURTHER INLAND. SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TO BREEZY/15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS INLAND.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO FRIDAY AS RIDGING HOVERS OVER THE
REGION. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT OFFSHORE
WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAKING IT ONSHORE. WILL USE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG THE COAST FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE
COOLEST NIGHT UNDER DRY AIR/OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN
THE LOWER/MID 60S INLAND...AND UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 COAST. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL USE LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDENCE DECREASING. AS THE TROUGH
MOVES CLOSER EARLY NEXT WEEK...WILL INCREASE POPS FURTHER TO
MID/HIGH END CHANCE BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF NORMAL WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
LEFTOVER MVFR CIGS FLOATING AROUND IN CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
A FEW ISOLD SHOWERS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z...THEN TEMPO MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AT KSGJ/KSSI
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL AROUND 15Z...THEN SCATTERED
CUMULUS FIELD EXPECTED IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHILE RAINFALL ACTIVITY REMAINS MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY VCSH AND/OR
VCTS WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS 3-5 FT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  65  89  64 /  50  30  10  10
SSI  83  72  81  71 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  88  68  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  85  71  84  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  92  66  90  64 /  10  10  10  10
OCF  92  67  90  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/ALLEN




000
FXUS62 KKEY 270245
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING A
PERSISTENT...10 TO 15 MPH WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS ON THE NEARSHORE
WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...TO BEYOND 20 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. EARLIER THIS WAS INITIATED AS A
STREAMER OFF ANDROS ISLAND. SURFACE WISE...AN EXTENSIVE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHES FROM WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TO
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST REGION. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...EAST WINDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR
EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 850 MB WHERE A TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF
20 DEGREES C IS EVIDENT AT 700 MB. FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS
SLACKEN ABOVE 850 MB...BEFORE VEERING ABOVE 600 MB.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
DESPITE EXTREMELY DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB...FRESH TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
EAST WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. GIVEN EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND WATER TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR 80. SINCE
THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL...NO ADJUSTMENT IS
PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 21 KNOTS AT 1 AND 2
THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE KBYX VWP. WITH A
VERY FORMIDABLE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR HAWK CHANNEL...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE WATERS IN AND AROUND TORTUGAS AND THE OUTER WATERS
OF MAINLAND MONROE. ELSEWHERE...AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
MIDDLE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR
ENCOUNTER. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1992...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 68F WAS RECORDED IN
KEY WEST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/FIRE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCAST.....................BF
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 270245
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE DETECTING A
PERSISTENT...10 TO 15 MPH WIDE AREA OF SHOWERS ON THE NEARSHORE
WATERS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...TO BEYOND 20 NM
SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER KEYS. EARLIER THIS WAS INITIATED AS A
STREAMER OFF ANDROS ISLAND. SURFACE WISE...AN EXTENSIVE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE REACHES FROM WELL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...TO
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST REGION. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...EAST WINDS RANGE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...OUR
EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 850 MB WHERE A TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF
20 DEGREES C IS EVIDENT AT 700 MB. FRESH TO STRONG EAST WINDS
SLACKEN ABOVE 850 MB...BEFORE VEERING ABOVE 600 MB.

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
DESPITE EXTREMELY DRY AIR ABOVE 850 MB...FRESH TO STRONG LOW LEVEL
EAST WINDS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FLUX TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. GIVEN EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND WATER TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR ABOVE 80 DEGREES...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD NEAR 80. SINCE
THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THE SITUATION WELL...NO ADJUSTMENT IS
PLANNED.

&&

.MARINE...
OUR EVENING SOUNDING REVEALS EAST WINDS OF 21 KNOTS AT 1 AND 2
THOUSAND FEET RESPECTIVELY WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE KBYX VWP. WITH A
VERY FORMIDABLE REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR HAWK CHANNEL...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE WATERS IN AND AROUND TORTUGAS AND THE OUTER WATERS
OF MAINLAND MONROE. ELSEWHERE...AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE WILL BE
IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
MIDDLE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR
ENCOUNTER. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IN 1992...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 68F WAS RECORDED IN
KEY WEST.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR 042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/CLIMATE/FIRE/DIGITAL...APA
AVIATION/NOWCAST.....................BF
DATA ACQUISITION.....................MP
VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KMFL 270139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
POPS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OFF NAPLES...AND
BAHAMANIAN STREAMER SHOWERS IMPACTED PALM BEACH COUNTY. BY
MIDNIGHT...ALL PCPN SHOULD BE FINISHED FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAPF THROUGH 01Z BEFORE MOVING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL AND DISSIPATING. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN E 6-10
KNOTS ALL TERMINALS INCREASING AFT 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
POPS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OFF NAPLES...AND
BAHAMANIAN STREAMER SHOWERS IMPACTED PALM BEACH COUNTY. BY
MIDNIGHT...ALL PCPN SHOULD BE FINISHED FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAPF THROUGH 01Z BEFORE MOVING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL AND DISSIPATING. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN E 6-10
KNOTS ALL TERMINALS INCREASING AFT 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
POPS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OFF NAPLES...AND
BAHAMANIAN STREAMER SHOWERS IMPACTED PALM BEACH COUNTY. BY
MIDNIGHT...ALL PCPN SHOULD BE FINISHED FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAPF THROUGH 01Z BEFORE MOVING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL AND DISSIPATING. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN E 6-10
KNOTS ALL TERMINALS INCREASING AFT 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
POPS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OFF NAPLES...AND
BAHAMANIAN STREAMER SHOWERS IMPACTED PALM BEACH COUNTY. BY
MIDNIGHT...ALL PCPN SHOULD BE FINISHED FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAPF THROUGH 01Z BEFORE MOVING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL AND DISSIPATING. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN E 6-10
KNOTS ALL TERMINALS INCREASING AFT 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
POPS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OFF NAPLES...AND
BAHAMANIAN STREAMER SHOWERS IMPACTED PALM BEACH COUNTY. BY
MIDNIGHT...ALL PCPN SHOULD BE FINISHED FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAPF THROUGH 01Z BEFORE MOVING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL AND DISSIPATING. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN E 6-10
KNOTS ALL TERMINALS INCREASING AFT 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
POPS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OFF NAPLES...AND
BAHAMANIAN STREAMER SHOWERS IMPACTED PALM BEACH COUNTY. BY
MIDNIGHT...ALL PCPN SHOULD BE FINISHED FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAPF THROUGH 01Z BEFORE MOVING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL AND DISSIPATING. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN E 6-10
KNOTS ALL TERMINALS INCREASING AFT 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....13/SI



000
FXUS62 KTBW 270127
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
927 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE OVER NIGHT
WITH PREVAILING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW ALONG
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REACHED THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN AFTERNOON AND RESULTED IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEVERAL WARNING AND
STATEMENTS...A FEW OF WHICH ARE STILL IN PLACE. HOWEVER EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN WINDING DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FORECASTS ON TRACK BUT MAY MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH COVERAGE AND ENDING TIMES WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.AVIATION...
27/00Z-27/24Z. LATE AFTERNOON TSRA WITH LCL IFR HAVE JUST ABOUT
CLEARED THE TERMINALS WITH JUST MVFR UNTIL 01-02Z. LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO ONSHORE
AT TPA/PIE/SRQ IN THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE VCNTY TSRA AFTER 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE GULF AND
WEAKEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS THE STORMS DIMINISH PREVAILING EASTERLY
WINDS TAKE OVER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KTBW 270127
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
927 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT)...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE STATE OVER NIGHT
WITH PREVAILING EASTERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS FLOW ALONG
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES REACHED THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE IN AFTERNOON AND RESULTED IN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEVERAL WARNING AND
STATEMENTS...A FEW OF WHICH ARE STILL IN PLACE. HOWEVER EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BEGIN WINDING DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THEN
PUSH OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FORECASTS ON TRACK BUT MAY MAKE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WITH COVERAGE AND ENDING TIMES WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.AVIATION...
27/00Z-27/24Z. LATE AFTERNOON TSRA WITH LCL IFR HAVE JUST ABOUT
CLEARED THE TERMINALS WITH JUST MVFR UNTIL 01-02Z. LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFT TO ONSHORE
AT TPA/PIE/SRQ IN THE AFTERNOON. ANTICIPATE VCNTY TSRA AFTER 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...
ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ON THE COAST WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE GULF AND
WEAKEN BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS THE STORMS DIMINISH PREVAILING EASTERLY
WINDS TAKE OVER AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...14/MROCZKA



000
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 270118
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
918 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS PASSING UP THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A HUMID NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT EAST OR VARIABLE BREEZE...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

ONCE AREA CONVECTION DIES OUT THROUGH 02-03Z...QUIET EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PER MORE SATURATED GROUNDS...PARTIALLY
CLEARING SKIES AND A WEAK WIND FIELD...SHORT-LIVED NEAR SUNRISE
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR DECKS. HIREZ MODELING FOCUSES EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION OUT WEST CLOSER TO DHN AND ECP AND THEN PROGRESSES
SCATTERED TSRA EASTWARD INTO THE REMAINING TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN VICINITY CONVECTION...IFR DECKS
AND VISIBILITIES WITHIN PERIODS +TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   71  88  69  89  66 /  70  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   74  85  71  84  70 /  50  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  60  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        69  87  67  89  65 /  70  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      70  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    71  90  66  90  64 /  60  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  50  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KMLB 270115
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET WX NIGHT IN STORE FOR E CENTRAL FL AS A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC MAINTAINS A DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW ACRS THE
REGION. AS EXPECTED...THE ERLY FLOW PACKED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVR
THE W FL PENINSULA THIS EVNG...RESULTING IN SOME VERY ACTIVE TSRA
ACTIVITY ALONG AND W OF I-75...BUT LITTLE OVER E CENTRAL FL OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHRAS THAT DVLPD OVR THE GREEN SWAMP AROUND MID AFTN. SRLY
STEERING FLOW THANKS TO AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST...SO NO CHANCE FOR BLOW BACK THIS EVNG.

SIMILAR TO MON EVNG...LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED
H100-H85 MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMA BANK...EXTENDING ACRS THE FL
KEYS...WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 80-90PCT. WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF
THE BAHAMAS HAVE COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN TO ALLOW
SHRA STREAMERS TO DVLP OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS EVNG. HOWEVER...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING FROM ARND 1.6" TO ARND 1.3"...WHILE THE MID/UPR LVLS
REMAIN LARGELY DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

THE RESULT IS A SINGLE STREAMER THAT IS MUCH LESS ROBUST THAN MON
EVNG WITH PRECIP DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES W OF I-95...THE
BULK OF WHICH IS ACTUALLY LOCATED JUST S OF THE CWA IN PALM BEACH
CO. ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE BRIEF/MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVNG GIVEN THE DRIER AIR AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTIVE FORMATION. NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE FCST FOR THESE
SHRAS...WILL HANDLE IN THE WX BLOW/SHORT TERM FCST.

THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LCL AIRMASS WELL MIXED THRU
MIDNIGHT. AS OF 900 PM EDT...ALL FOUR CLIMATE STATIONS IN E CENTRAL
FL HAVE EITHER TIED ARE WARMER THAN THEIR RECORD WARM MIN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 28/00Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 27/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
27/12Z. BTWN 27/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 8-13KTS. AFT
27/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 12-16KTS WITH SFC G20-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 27/12Z...ISOLD MVFR COASTAL SHRAS S OF KFPR. AFT
27/12Z...OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE AS THE HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC  MAINTAINS A MODERATE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. LATEST
BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS ON THE ROUGH SIDE WITH WAVES RUNNING 3-4FT...
DOMINANT PDS 5-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...

CONTINUING BRISK ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM LOWS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN     TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 900 PM)
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991  76
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943  74
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014  79
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991  76

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMLB 270115
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET WX NIGHT IN STORE FOR E CENTRAL FL AS A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC MAINTAINS A DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW ACRS THE
REGION. AS EXPECTED...THE ERLY FLOW PACKED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVR
THE W FL PENINSULA THIS EVNG...RESULTING IN SOME VERY ACTIVE TSRA
ACTIVITY ALONG AND W OF I-75...BUT LITTLE OVER E CENTRAL FL OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHRAS THAT DVLPD OVR THE GREEN SWAMP AROUND MID AFTN. SRLY
STEERING FLOW THANKS TO AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST...SO NO CHANCE FOR BLOW BACK THIS EVNG.

SIMILAR TO MON EVNG...LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED
H100-H85 MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMA BANK...EXTENDING ACRS THE FL
KEYS...WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 80-90PCT. WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF
THE BAHAMAS HAVE COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN TO ALLOW
SHRA STREAMERS TO DVLP OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS EVNG. HOWEVER...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING FROM ARND 1.6" TO ARND 1.3"...WHILE THE MID/UPR LVLS
REMAIN LARGELY DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

THE RESULT IS A SINGLE STREAMER THAT IS MUCH LESS ROBUST THAN MON
EVNG WITH PRECIP DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES W OF I-95...THE
BULK OF WHICH IS ACTUALLY LOCATED JUST S OF THE CWA IN PALM BEACH
CO. ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE BRIEF/MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVNG GIVEN THE DRIER AIR AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTIVE FORMATION. NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE FCST FOR THESE
SHRAS...WILL HANDLE IN THE WX BLOW/SHORT TERM FCST.

THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LCL AIRMASS WELL MIXED THRU
MIDNIGHT. AS OF 900 PM EDT...ALL FOUR CLIMATE STATIONS IN E CENTRAL
FL HAVE EITHER TIED ARE WARMER THAN THEIR RECORD WARM MIN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 28/00Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 27/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
27/12Z. BTWN 27/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 8-13KTS. AFT
27/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 12-16KTS WITH SFC G20-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 27/12Z...ISOLD MVFR COASTAL SHRAS S OF KFPR. AFT
27/12Z...OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE AS THE HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC  MAINTAINS A MODERATE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. LATEST
BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS ON THE ROUGH SIDE WITH WAVES RUNNING 3-4FT...
DOMINANT PDS 5-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...

CONTINUING BRISK ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM LOWS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN     TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 900 PM)
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991  76
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943  74
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014  79
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991  76

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 270115
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
915 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET WX NIGHT IN STORE FOR E CENTRAL FL AS A LARGE HI PRES
RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC MAINTAINS A DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW ACRS THE
REGION. AS EXPECTED...THE ERLY FLOW PACKED DIURNAL CONVECTION OVR
THE W FL PENINSULA THIS EVNG...RESULTING IN SOME VERY ACTIVE TSRA
ACTIVITY ALONG AND W OF I-75...BUT LITTLE OVER E CENTRAL FL OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHRAS THAT DVLPD OVR THE GREEN SWAMP AROUND MID AFTN. SRLY
STEERING FLOW THANKS TO AN H85-H50 ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA COAST...SO NO CHANCE FOR BLOW BACK THIS EVNG.

SIMILAR TO MON EVNG...LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED
H100-H85 MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMA BANK...EXTENDING ACRS THE FL
KEYS...WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN 80-90PCT. WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF
THE BAHAMAS HAVE COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE TO ONCE AGAIN TO ALLOW
SHRA STREAMERS TO DVLP OVER THE GULF STREAM THIS EVNG. HOWEVER...
DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED INTO THE REGION OVER THE PAST 24HRS WITH PWAT
VALUES DROPPING FROM ARND 1.6" TO ARND 1.3"...WHILE THE MID/UPR LVLS
REMAIN LARGELY DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

THE RESULT IS A SINGLE STREAMER THAT IS MUCH LESS ROBUST THAN MON
EVNG WITH PRECIP DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS IT PUSHES W OF I-95...THE
BULK OF WHICH IS ACTUALLY LOCATED JUST S OF THE CWA IN PALM BEACH
CO. ANY PRECIP WILL HAVE BRIEF/MINIMAL IMPACT AND MAY EVEN DISSIPATE
BY LATE EVNG GIVEN THE DRIER AIR AND HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONVECTIVE FORMATION. NO PLANS TO UPDATE THE FCST FOR THESE
SHRAS...WILL HANDLE IN THE WX BLOW/SHORT TERM FCST.

THE STEADY ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE LCL AIRMASS WELL MIXED THRU
MIDNIGHT. AS OF 900 PM EDT...ALL FOUR CLIMATE STATIONS IN E CENTRAL
FL HAVE EITHER TIED ARE WARMER THAN THEIR RECORD WARM MIN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 28/00Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 27/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
27/12Z. BTWN 27/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 8-13KTS. AFT
27/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 12-16KTS WITH SFC G20-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 27/12Z...ISOLD MVFR COASTAL SHRAS S OF KFPR. AFT
27/12Z...OCNL CIGS BTWN FL040-060.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIG CHANGES WITH THE EVNG UPDATE AS THE HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE W
ATLC  MAINTAINS A MODERATE E/SE BREEZE ACRS THE LCL ATLC. LATEST
BUOY OBS SHOW SEAS ON THE ROUGH SIDE WITH WAVES RUNNING 3-4FT...
DOMINANT PDS 5-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...

CONTINUING BRISK ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM LOWS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN     TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 900 PM)
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991  76
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943  74
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014  79
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991  76

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270113
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
913 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...STORMS FIRED UP WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301 THIS EVE AS A
SHORT WAVE INTERACTED WITH THE SEABREEZE COLLISION. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN END AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOTION...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
(OVER 3 INCHES). WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS  LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN THIS EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AROUND THE GNV TERMINAL WHERE
VERY BRIEF IFR VSBY REDUCTION OCCURRED IN TSRA AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE GNV TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AROUND 1500-2500 FT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WED
AFTN...A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE TERMINALS
(ABOUT 10 PERCENT) SO NO MENTION NEEDED FOR THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO
4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  88  66  89 /  60  40  20  10
SSI  72  83  71  82 /  20  10  20  20
JAX  69  86  67  85 /  30  10  20  20
SGJ  72  84  72  83 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  67  90  66  89 /  60  10  10  20
OCF  69  90  68  88 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PETERSON/SHASHY/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 270113
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
913 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...STORMS FIRED UP WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 301 THIS EVE AS A
SHORT WAVE INTERACTED WITH THE SEABREEZE COLLISION. THESE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN END AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOTION...THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
(OVER 3 INCHES). WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS  LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG
OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN THIS EVE.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS WINDING DOWN AROUND THE GNV TERMINAL WHERE
VERY BRIEF IFR VSBY REDUCTION OCCURRED IN TSRA AROUND 00Z. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE GNV TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF SCT-
BKN CLOUDS AROUND 1500-2500 FT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WED
AFTN...A VERY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE TERMINALS
(ABOUT 10 PERCENT) SO NO MENTION NEEDED FOR THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO
4 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  88  66  89 /  60  40  20  10
SSI  72  83  71  82 /  20  10  20  20
JAX  69  86  67  85 /  30  10  20  20
SGJ  72  84  72  83 /  20  10  10  20
GNV  67  90  66  89 /  60  10  10  20
OCF  69  90  68  88 /  60  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PETERSON/SHASHY/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAPF THROUGH 01Z BEFORE MOVING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL AND DISSIPATING. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN E 6-10
KNOTS ALL TERMINALS INCREASING AFT 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF KFXE.
THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM KFLL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS 15-20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAPF THROUGH 01Z BEFORE MOVING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL AND DISSIPATING. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN E 6-10
KNOTS ALL TERMINALS INCREASING AFT 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF KFXE.
THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM KFLL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS 15-20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAPF THROUGH 01Z BEFORE MOVING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL AND DISSIPATING. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN E 6-10
KNOTS ALL TERMINALS INCREASING AFT 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF KFXE.
THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM KFLL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS 15-20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAPF THROUGH 01Z BEFORE MOVING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL AND DISSIPATING. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN E 6-10
KNOTS ALL TERMINALS INCREASING AFT 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF KFXE.
THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM KFLL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS 15-20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KJAX 262109
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
509 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT):
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INLAND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING GULF COAST SEABREEZE.
EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO BEING BEHIND THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE AND ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE  AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL BE WORKING WITH CAPE
VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 25 KNOTS.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND APPRECIABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALL COMBINE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOTION. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. ALL CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO
RAIN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO DEEP LAYER DRY AIR  ADVECTING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...FEATURING RIDGING
ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...WITH "BERMUDA"
SURFACE RIDGING MAINTAINING A DEEP ONSHORE WIND REGIME LOCALLY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL GLIDE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIR MASS...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND COVER MUCH OF OUR
REGION FROM LATE TOMORROW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH DEWPOINTS INLAND FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW MAY DRIVE A FEW
SHOWERS ONSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90
WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE
MID 60S INLAND...WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS
STATES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER OUR REGION...ALBEIT AT A WEAKENED STATE.
LESS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST SEA BREEZES THIS WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY INLAND...WITH
ISOLATED NOCTURNAL AND MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY FINALLY BRING MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 INLAND...AND THE MID 80S AT THE
COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE GNV TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WILL JUST CARRY VCTS FOR NOW SINCE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF GAINESVILLE. INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES THIS EVENING...BUT DURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE TOO BRIEF TO WARRANT AN SCEC HEADLINE. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE RE-ORIENTS ITSELF...BUT SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW CAUTION SPEEDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A FEW HOURS EACH
EVENING DURING THE DAILY WIND SURGE AROUND SUNSET. SEAS OFFSHORE
MAY APPROACH CAUTION CRITERIA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  88  66  89 /  40  40  20  10
SSI  72  83  71  82 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  69  86  67  85 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  72  84  72  83 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  67  90  66  89 /  50  10  10  20
OCF  69  90  68  88 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 262109
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
509 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

.NEAR TERM (THROUGH TONIGHT):
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INLAND SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 PM ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING GULF COAST SEABREEZE.
EASTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE THANKS TO BEING BEHIND THE
ATLANTIC COAST SEABREEZE AND ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG
SUBSIDENCE  AND DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WILL BE WORKING WITH CAPE
VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR 25 KNOTS.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND APPRECIABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALL COMBINE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO
SLOW STORM MOTION. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD
TOWARDS THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. ALL CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT WITH NO
RAIN EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO DEEP LAYER DRY AIR  ADVECTING WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL...FEATURING RIDGING
ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SEABOARD...WITH "BERMUDA"
SURFACE RIDGING MAINTAINING A DEEP ONSHORE WIND REGIME LOCALLY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL GLIDE NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY...IMPACTING THE WESTERN SUWANNEE VALLEY AND INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT
AIR MASS...CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS...WILL ADVECT WESTWARD AND COVER MUCH OF OUR
REGION FROM LATE TOMORROW THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
DRY AIR WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH DEWPOINTS INLAND FALLING TO NEAR 60 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW MAY DRIVE A FEW
SHOWERS ONSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED AS THIS ACTIVITY
MOVES INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90
WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. LOWS WILL FALL TO THE
MID 60S INLAND...WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A TROUGH ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS
STATES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL
MAINTAIN A RIDGE OVER OUR REGION...ALBEIT AT A WEAKENED STATE.
LESS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
COAST SEA BREEZES THIS WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
FOCUS SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY INLAND...WITH
ISOLATED NOCTURNAL AND MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. AS THE SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY FINALLY BRING MORE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO COASTAL LOCATIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL
KEEP SCATTERED DIURNAL COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
NOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR 90 INLAND...AND THE MID 80S AT THE
COAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT
THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. ONE EXCEPTION WILL
BE AT THE GNV TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. WILL JUST CARRY VCTS FOR NOW SINCE THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF GAINESVILLE. INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING WITH VFR PREVAILING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE ZONES THIS EVENING...BUT DURATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE TOO BRIEF TO WARRANT AN SCEC HEADLINE. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE RE-ORIENTS ITSELF...BUT SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN
BELOW CAUTION SPEEDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR A FEW HOURS EACH
EVENING DURING THE DAILY WIND SURGE AROUND SUNSET. SEAS OFFSHORE
MAY APPROACH CAUTION CRITERIA ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT SPEEDS AND SEAS WILL
SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  88  66  89 /  40  40  20  10
SSI  72  83  71  82 /  10  10  20  20
JAX  69  86  67  85 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  72  84  72  83 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  67  90  66  89 /  50  10  10  20
OCF  69  90  68  88 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 261940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

..ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES MOST OF THIS
WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...
AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE  SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK CONTINUES AT LOCAL BEACHES.

THE EARLIER CONVERGENT BAND THAT LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN PUSHED WESTWARDS BY THE
PREVAILING FLOW WITH THE TRAILING END DISSIPATING BACK ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND WILL BRING THE
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW FOR ANY STORMS AND BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE FORECAST. MOST
ACTIVITY MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A DRY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO
THE TREASURE COAST BUT DRIER AIR WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE COOLER LOWS AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL STRENGTH WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WANE. WE WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AS
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS OF TO
OUR EAST. MODELS ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT RAIN OR STORMS...KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TRENDS FROM
TUESDAY. STRAY SPRINKLE FROM ATLANTIC CLOUDS LINES ALONG COAST IN
THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR DOESN`T APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POP MENTION SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WED-FRI...MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS MAY LEAD ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI
WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. EVEN THEN RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY
WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW-MID 70S IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50
PERCENT MON WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-
25KTS ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST.

COVERAGE OF ATLC SHRA LOOKS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
MOVING INTO REGION. BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KMLB WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FROM CLOUD BANDS MOVING ONSHORE.

RAIN CHANCES ACROSS REGION LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND 10-15KTS ALONG SOUTH SIDE OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WITH SOME GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO 17-20 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH
PERIODS A CHOPPY 4-6 SEC.

THU-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15KT...
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 4-5FT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM
LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  72  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  71  90  70  87 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  76  86  74  84 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  72  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  72  91  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  70  90  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  70  89  71  87 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  74  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 261940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

..ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES MOST OF THIS
WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...
AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE  SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK CONTINUES AT LOCAL BEACHES.

THE EARLIER CONVERGENT BAND THAT LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN PUSHED WESTWARDS BY THE
PREVAILING FLOW WITH THE TRAILING END DISSIPATING BACK ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND WILL BRING THE
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW FOR ANY STORMS AND BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE FORECAST. MOST
ACTIVITY MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A DRY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO
THE TREASURE COAST BUT DRIER AIR WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE COOLER LOWS AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL STRENGTH WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WANE. WE WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AS
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS OF TO
OUR EAST. MODELS ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT RAIN OR STORMS...KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TRENDS FROM
TUESDAY. STRAY SPRINKLE FROM ATLANTIC CLOUDS LINES ALONG COAST IN
THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR DOESN`T APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POP MENTION SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WED-FRI...MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS MAY LEAD ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI
WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. EVEN THEN RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY
WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW-MID 70S IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50
PERCENT MON WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-
25KTS ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST.

COVERAGE OF ATLC SHRA LOOKS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
MOVING INTO REGION. BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KMLB WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FROM CLOUD BANDS MOVING ONSHORE.

RAIN CHANCES ACROSS REGION LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND 10-15KTS ALONG SOUTH SIDE OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WITH SOME GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO 17-20 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH
PERIODS A CHOPPY 4-6 SEC.

THU-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15KT...
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 4-5FT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM
LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  72  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  71  90  70  87 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  76  86  74  84 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  72  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  72  91  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  70  90  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  70  89  71  87 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  74  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

..ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES MOST OF THIS
WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...
AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE  SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK CONTINUES AT LOCAL BEACHES.

THE EARLIER CONVERGENT BAND THAT LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN PUSHED WESTWARDS BY THE
PREVAILING FLOW WITH THE TRAILING END DISSIPATING BACK ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND WILL BRING THE
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW FOR ANY STORMS AND BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE FORECAST. MOST
ACTIVITY MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A DRY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO
THE TREASURE COAST BUT DRIER AIR WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE COOLER LOWS AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL STRENGTH WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WANE. WE WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AS
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS OF TO
OUR EAST. MODELS ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT RAIN OR STORMS...KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TRENDS FROM
TUESDAY. STRAY SPRINKLE FROM ATLANTIC CLOUDS LINES ALONG COAST IN
THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR DOESN`T APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POP MENTION SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WED-FRI...MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS MAY LEAD ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI
WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. EVEN THEN RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY
WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW-MID 70S IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50
PERCENT MON WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-
25KTS ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST.

COVERAGE OF ATLC SHRA LOOKS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
MOVING INTO REGION. BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KMLB WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FROM CLOUD BANDS MOVING ONSHORE.

RAIN CHANCES ACROSS REGION LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND 10-15KTS ALONG SOUTH SIDE OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WITH SOME GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO 17-20 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH
PERIODS A CHOPPY 4-6 SEC.

THU-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15KT...
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 4-5FT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM
LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  72  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  71  90  70  87 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  76  86  74  84 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  72  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  72  91  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  70  90  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  70  89  71  87 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  74  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

..ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES MOST OF THIS
WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...
AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE  SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK CONTINUES AT LOCAL BEACHES.

THE EARLIER CONVERGENT BAND THAT LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN PUSHED WESTWARDS BY THE
PREVAILING FLOW WITH THE TRAILING END DISSIPATING BACK ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND WILL BRING THE
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW FOR ANY STORMS AND BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE FORECAST. MOST
ACTIVITY MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A DRY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO
THE TREASURE COAST BUT DRIER AIR WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE COOLER LOWS AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL STRENGTH WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WANE. WE WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AS
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS OF TO
OUR EAST. MODELS ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT RAIN OR STORMS...KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TRENDS FROM
TUESDAY. STRAY SPRINKLE FROM ATLANTIC CLOUDS LINES ALONG COAST IN
THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR DOESN`T APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POP MENTION SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WED-FRI...MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS MAY LEAD ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI
WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. EVEN THEN RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY
WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW-MID 70S IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50
PERCENT MON WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-
25KTS ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST.

COVERAGE OF ATLC SHRA LOOKS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
MOVING INTO REGION. BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KMLB WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FROM CLOUD BANDS MOVING ONSHORE.

RAIN CHANCES ACROSS REGION LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND 10-15KTS ALONG SOUTH SIDE OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WITH SOME GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO 17-20 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH
PERIODS A CHOPPY 4-6 SEC.

THU-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15KT...
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 4-5FT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM
LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  72  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  71  90  70  87 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  76  86  74  84 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  72  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  72  91  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  70  90  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  70  89  71  87 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  74  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261940
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

..ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES MOST OF THIS
WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...
AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE  SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK CONTINUES AT LOCAL BEACHES.

THE EARLIER CONVERGENT BAND THAT LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN PUSHED WESTWARDS BY THE
PREVAILING FLOW WITH THE TRAILING END DISSIPATING BACK ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND WILL BRING THE
OCCASIONAL SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW FOR ANY STORMS AND BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FROM THE FORECAST. MOST
ACTIVITY MOVES WEST OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BRINGING A DRY
EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY BRING A SHOWER OR TWO TO
THE TREASURE COAST BUT DRIER AIR WILL KEEP COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT.

DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR A LITTLE COOLER LOWS AROUND 70 OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE
COASTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE IN THE ONGOING PATTERN WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE
REMAINING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...THOUGH OVERALL STRENGTH WILL SLOWLY
BEGIN TO WANE. WE WILL REMAIN UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AS
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO TAP INTO THE SUBSIDENT AIRMASS OF TO
OUR EAST. MODELS ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT RAIN OR STORMS...KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTION...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN TRENDS FROM
TUESDAY. STRAY SPRINKLE FROM ATLANTIC CLOUDS LINES ALONG COAST IN
THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR DOESN`T APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT POP MENTION SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.

PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

WED-FRI...MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
BETWEEN 850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK. THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS MAY LEAD ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI
WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY
FLOW. EVEN THEN RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY
WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW-MID 70S IN CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50
PERCENT MON WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS
CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MOST ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z. GUSTY EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-
25KTS ESPECIALLY ALONG COAST.

COVERAGE OF ATLC SHRA LOOKS MINIMAL OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR
MOVING INTO REGION. BRIEF SPRINKLE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KMLB WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS FROM CLOUD BANDS MOVING ONSHORE.

RAIN CHANCES ACROSS REGION LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND 10-15KTS ALONG SOUTH SIDE OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WITH SOME GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO 17-20 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH
PERIODS A CHOPPY 4-6 SEC.

THU-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15KT...
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 4-5FT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW MAY ALLOW A FOR MORE RECORD WARM
LOWS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  71  86  72  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  71  90  70  87 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  76  86  74  84 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  72  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  72  91  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  70  90  69  86 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  70  89  71  87 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  74  87  73  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KTAE 261936
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

18Z RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO DOMINANT AREAS OF CONVECTION. ONE AREA
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE APALACHICOLA CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOIST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF, COMBINED WITH THE CONVEX
NATURE OF THE COASTLINE, IS ENHANCING THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THESE STORMS GREW TALLER THEY WERE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (~6.6 C/KM). THIS HAS
YIELDED QUITE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR GUSTY WINDS SO
FAR TODAY. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD POOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COLD POOL FORMED
LAST NIGHT FROM A VERY IMPRESSIVE MCS OVER TEXAS. THIS LINE HAS
PROGRESSED EASTWARDS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND NOW
LIES ALONG OUR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. AS THIS LINE MOVES
THROUGH/NEAR PANAMA CITY SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE.

MOST STORMS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY END WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS
THE MESOSCALE FEATURE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. SOME STORMS THIS
EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF
AROUND 0.50-1.0 INCHES. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE 4-6 INCHES
OF RAIN WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR.


.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CAUSING GUSTY WINDS
AND TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY. AS THE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY
UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KDHN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  88  69  89  66 /  20  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   72  85  71  84  70 /  30  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  40  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        70  87  67  89  65 /  30  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      68  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    69  90  66  90  64 /  50  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...MOORE/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 261936
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
336 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

18Z RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO DOMINANT AREAS OF CONVECTION. ONE AREA
IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE APALACHICOLA CONVERGENCE ZONE. MOIST
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF, COMBINED WITH THE CONVEX
NATURE OF THE COASTLINE, IS ENHANCING THE FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AS THESE STORMS GREW TALLER THEY WERE ABLE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (~6.6 C/KM). THIS HAS
YIELDED QUITE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS FOR GUSTY WINDS SO
FAR TODAY. THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG COLD POOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COLD POOL FORMED
LAST NIGHT FROM A VERY IMPRESSIVE MCS OVER TEXAS. THIS LINE HAS
PROGRESSED EASTWARDS THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES OVERNIGHT AND NOW
LIES ALONG OUR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. AS THIS LINE MOVES
THROUGH/NEAR PANAMA CITY SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE.

MOST STORMS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY END WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS
THE MESOSCALE FEATURE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CWA. SOME STORMS THIS
EVENING COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF
AROUND 0.50-1.0 INCHES. SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD SEE 4-6 INCHES
OF RAIN WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS OCCUR.


.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

A WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE WESTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE & MLCAPE, AND EVEN
SOME WEAK Q-G FORCING, MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES LIKE SEA BREEZE FRONTS
AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE INITIATING DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, DRYING, SINKING AIR IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT WESTWARD, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY,
LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF OUR REGION. AS IS
TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME WEATHER, WHICH STARTED EARLY THIS YEAR, WE DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM ORGANIZATION DUE TO WEAK WINDS
ALOFT. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE PEAK OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL
BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COINCIDING WITH A 587 DM HIGH AT THE 500 MB
LEVEL OVER SOUTH GA. OUR POPS WILL BE LOWEST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(20 PERCENT OR LESS). DAYTIME POPS WILL RETURN TO CLIMO VALUES (30-
40 PERCENT) BY EARLY NEXT WEAK, AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CAUSING GUSTY WINDS
AND TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY. AS THE STORMS MOVE
OUT OF OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BRIEFLY
UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN TO ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KDHN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE LOW CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A FEW AREAS ALONG THE FL-AL BORDER RECEIVED ABOUT 1-3" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY EVENING. THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER 1-3" EXPECTED ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. ZONES
EAST OF A LINE FROM APALACHICOLA TO FITZGERALD EXPECTED TO RECEIVE
1" OR LESS OF RAIN DURING THIS SAME PERIOD. LOCAL HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN YESTERDAY ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE AREA TO RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THAT AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2", WITH ONLY AROUND 1" OF IT EXPECTED TO COME
TODAY, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TOTALS UP TO 4-6" ARE POSSIBLE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   70  88  69  89  66 /  20  40  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   72  85  71  84  70 /  30  50  10  40  20
DOTHAN        68  86  67  89  68 /  40  60  40  40  20
ALBANY        70  87  67  89  65 /  30  50  40  30  10
VALDOSTA      68  89  66  90  65 /  60  20  10  20  10
CROSS CITY    69  90  66  90  64 /  50  20  10  10  10
APALACHICOLA  74  86  72  86  70 /  20  30  10  30  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DOBBS
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...MOORE/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 261911
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
311 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL WEAKEN A
BIT AS A S/W DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. W/V IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF MID
LEVEL DRY AIR EAST OF FLORIDA WHICH IS SLOWLY ADVECTING WEST
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
FROM THE U/L RIDGE WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL KEEP LOW POPS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW END SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL ALSO AID IN ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH DRIER IN PLACE OVER THE PENINSULA. THAT
BEING SAID...LOOKS DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS
PWAT VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE. MOISTURE RETURN
BEGINS ON FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT LOW END POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST AREAS WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES WILL HELP INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SOME WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS LATE IN THE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING. WEAKER FLOW LIKELY SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SEABREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SLIGHTLY LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE GULF COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO THE
SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION... SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MAY IMPACT TPA/PIE/SRQ/FMY/RSW WITH MVFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
KNOTS. THUNDESTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS BETWEEN 00-02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS OF OVER 34 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.
EVENING EASTERLY SURGE OF WIND EACH NIGHT WILL ALSO CREATE WINDS
OF EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  92  72  91 /  30  30  20  10
FMY  75  93  70  91 /  30  30  20  10
GIF  75  92  70  90 /  10  20   0  10
SRQ  75  91  71  89 /  40  30  20  10
BKV  73  92  68  90 /  30  30  20  10
SPG  78  90  74  89 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 261911
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
311 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL WEAKEN A
BIT AS A S/W DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. W/V IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF MID
LEVEL DRY AIR EAST OF FLORIDA WHICH IS SLOWLY ADVECTING WEST
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
FROM THE U/L RIDGE WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL KEEP LOW POPS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW END SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL ALSO AID IN ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH DRIER IN PLACE OVER THE PENINSULA. THAT
BEING SAID...LOOKS DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS
PWAT VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE. MOISTURE RETURN
BEGINS ON FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT LOW END POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST AREAS WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES WILL HELP INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SOME WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS LATE IN THE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING. WEAKER FLOW LIKELY SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SEABREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SLIGHTLY LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE GULF COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO THE
SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION... SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MAY IMPACT TPA/PIE/SRQ/FMY/RSW WITH MVFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
KNOTS. THUNDESTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS BETWEEN 00-02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS OF OVER 34 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.
EVENING EASTERLY SURGE OF WIND EACH NIGHT WILL ALSO CREATE WINDS
OF EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  92  72  91 /  30  30  20  10
FMY  75  93  70  91 /  30  30  20  10
GIF  75  92  70  90 /  10  20   0  10
SRQ  75  91  71  89 /  40  30  20  10
BKV  73  92  68  90 /  30  30  20  10
SPG  78  90  74  89 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN



000
FXUS62 KTBW 261911
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
311 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF OF MEXICO
WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL WEAKEN A
BIT AS A S/W DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. W/V IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF MID
LEVEL DRY AIR EAST OF FLORIDA WHICH IS SLOWLY ADVECTING WEST
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
FROM THE U/L RIDGE WILL INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WILL KEEP LOW POPS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW END SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE COAST DUE
TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. THIS
SCENARIO WILL ALSO AID IN ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH DRIER IN PLACE OVER THE PENINSULA. THAT
BEING SAID...LOOKS DIFFICULT TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AS
PWAT VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-1.25 INCH RANGE. MOISTURE RETURN
BEGINS ON FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT LOW END POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
MOST AREAS WILL STILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES WILL HELP INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE SOME WITH SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS LATE IN THE
DAY AND EARLY EVENING. WEAKER FLOW LIKELY SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SEABREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SLIGHTLY LOWERING RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE GULF COAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO THE
SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

&&

.AVIATION... SCT THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES MAY IMPACT TPA/PIE/SRQ/FMY/RSW WITH MVFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS. STRONGER STORMS MAY ALSO CREATE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40
KNOTS. THUNDESTORM ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS BETWEEN 00-02Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS OF OVER 34 KNOTS WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.
EVENING EASTERLY SURGE OF WIND EACH NIGHT WILL ALSO CREATE WINDS
OF EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  76  92  72  91 /  30  30  20  10
FMY  75  93  70  91 /  30  30  20  10
GIF  75  92  70  90 /  10  20   0  10
SRQ  75  91  71  89 /  40  30  20  10
BKV  73  92  68  90 /  30  30  20  10
SPG  78  90  74  89 /  40  30  20  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...11/MCKAUGHAN
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261851
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF KFXE.
THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM KFLL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS 15-20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261851
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF KFXE.
THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM KFLL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS 15-20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261851
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF KFXE.
THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM KFLL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS 15-20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KKEY 261832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
232 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
NORTH OF BOCA GRANDE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND IS THE LAST GASP OF
MOISTURE AROUND THE KEYS FOR A WHILE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AND ITS
A WARM 86 AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT...88 AT MARATHON...AND 87 IN THE
BACK YARD OF THE KEY WEST WFO. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...15 TO 20 KNOTS AT
THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS EAST OF SAND KEY AND LONG KEY...AND
NEAR 20 KNOTS AT SMITH SHOAL AND PULASKI SHOAL.

.FORECAST...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IN THAT THE DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE KEYS AREA...AND THE LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTROL
WINDS. WE EXPECT ONE MORE SURGE TONIGHT BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NUDGES THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS MAY SURGE AND LULL
BUT THE OVERALL WIND FIELD WILL PEAK TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE
FROM THE EAST WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING VERY NICE WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE FINAL STRAW TO BREAK
THE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL BRING ADDED MOISTURE AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. WILL GO OUT
WITH A LOW END CHANCE AT THIS TIME WITH PLENTY OF FORECAST TIME TO
ANALYZE THE SCENARIO FURTHER.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST BREEZES NEAR 20 KNOTS ON
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HAWK CHANNEL...AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF
THE LOWER KEYS INCLUDING THE WATERS WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION OVERNIGHT ON FLORIDA BAY AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
MIDDLE KEYS FOR MAINLY EAST BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS ARE UP TO
7 FEET ON THE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE PERSISTENT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST IS TO BLAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND
2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 81 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 81 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE
THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN
KEY WEST ON MAY 26TH. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET IN
1991 AND LAST RECORDED IN 2000. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  80  88 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  80  91 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ033>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS
DATA COLLECTION...............PARKE

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 261832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
232 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
NORTH OF BOCA GRANDE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND IS THE LAST GASP OF
MOISTURE AROUND THE KEYS FOR A WHILE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AND ITS
A WARM 86 AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT...88 AT MARATHON...AND 87 IN THE
BACK YARD OF THE KEY WEST WFO. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...15 TO 20 KNOTS AT
THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS EAST OF SAND KEY AND LONG KEY...AND
NEAR 20 KNOTS AT SMITH SHOAL AND PULASKI SHOAL.

.FORECAST...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IN THAT THE DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE KEYS AREA...AND THE LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTROL
WINDS. WE EXPECT ONE MORE SURGE TONIGHT BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NUDGES THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS MAY SURGE AND LULL
BUT THE OVERALL WIND FIELD WILL PEAK TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE
FROM THE EAST WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING VERY NICE WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE FINAL STRAW TO BREAK
THE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL BRING ADDED MOISTURE AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. WILL GO OUT
WITH A LOW END CHANCE AT THIS TIME WITH PLENTY OF FORECAST TIME TO
ANALYZE THE SCENARIO FURTHER.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST BREEZES NEAR 20 KNOTS ON
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HAWK CHANNEL...AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF
THE LOWER KEYS INCLUDING THE WATERS WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION OVERNIGHT ON FLORIDA BAY AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
MIDDLE KEYS FOR MAINLY EAST BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS ARE UP TO
7 FEET ON THE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE PERSISTENT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST IS TO BLAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND
2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 81 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 81 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE
THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN
KEY WEST ON MAY 26TH. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET IN
1991 AND LAST RECORDED IN 2000. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  80  88 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  80  91 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ033>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS
DATA COLLECTION...............PARKE

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 261832
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
232 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
NORTH OF BOCA GRANDE TO THE DRY TORTUGAS AND IS THE LAST GASP OF
MOISTURE AROUND THE KEYS FOR A WHILE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY AND ITS
A WARM 86 AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT...88 AT MARATHON...AND 87 IN THE
BACK YARD OF THE KEY WEST WFO. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...15 TO 20 KNOTS AT
THE MARINE REPORTING STATIONS EAST OF SAND KEY AND LONG KEY...AND
NEAR 20 KNOTS AT SMITH SHOAL AND PULASKI SHOAL.

.FORECAST...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IN THAT THE DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE KEYS AREA...AND THE LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST WILL CONTROL
WINDS. WE EXPECT ONE MORE SURGE TONIGHT BEFORE THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NUDGES THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY
NORTHEASTWARD. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WINDS MAY SURGE AND LULL
BUT THE OVERALL WIND FIELD WILL PEAK TONIGHT. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE
FROM THE EAST WITH SMALL DIFFERENCES NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING VERY NICE WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE
BREEZES AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE FINAL STRAW TO BREAK
THE PATTERN WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE
APPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL BRING ADDED MOISTURE AND A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. WILL GO OUT
WITH A LOW END CHANCE AT THIS TIME WITH PLENTY OF FORECAST TIME TO
ANALYZE THE SCENARIO FURTHER.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST BREEZES NEAR 20 KNOTS ON
THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HAWK CHANNEL...AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF
THE LOWER KEYS INCLUDING THE WATERS WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY
AND SURROUNDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION OVERNIGHT ON FLORIDA BAY AND THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE
MIDDLE KEYS FOR MAINLY EAST BREEZES OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS ARE UP TO
7 FEET ON THE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE PERSISTENT AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST IS TO BLAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND
2500 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET WILL DECREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 81 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 81 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE
THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN
KEY WEST ON MAY 26TH. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET IN
1991 AND LAST RECORDED IN 2000. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  80  88 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  80  91 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ033>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS
DATA COLLECTION...............PARKE

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KMFL 261739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF KFXE.
THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM KFLL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS 15-20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE
COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AS SHOWERS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FEW COULD DEVELOP
INTO A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY NEAR THE GULF COAST. OTHERWISE, TODAY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE. ALSO, WITH THE WEAK SHOWERS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF WATERSPOUT. HOWEVER, ANY SPOUTS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF AFTER 18Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR THE VERY
DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PWAT VALUES TO FALL
DOWN TO AROUND 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE CLOSE THE THE
MINIMUM PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE IN THE 0.85
TO 0.95 INCH RANGE. THIS MEANS THAT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT BEEN
GOING ON EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SHOULD COME TO AND END BY THIS
AFTERNOON. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MEETS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WEATHER WILL
THEN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A SHOWER
COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NAPLES COULD GET UP TO NEAR THE RECORD HIGH TODAY WHICH IS 93
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1989. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NAPLES AREA TODAY.

THE STRONG HIGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
WEEK...AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
SPEEDS DECREASE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY DOWN TO LESS THAN 15
KNOTS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SCEC WILL
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE GULF...ATLANTIC...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  89  76  88 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  88  78  87 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  89  77  88 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           73  92  71  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF KFXE.
THESE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FROM KFLL
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS 15-20
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KNOTS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 914 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE
COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AS SHOWERS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FEW COULD DEVELOP
INTO A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY NEAR THE GULF COAST. OTHERWISE, TODAY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE. ALSO, WITH THE WEAK SHOWERS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF WATERSPOUT. HOWEVER, ANY SPOUTS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF AFTER 18Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR THE VERY
DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PWAT VALUES TO FALL
DOWN TO AROUND 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE CLOSE THE THE
MINIMUM PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE IN THE 0.85
TO 0.95 INCH RANGE. THIS MEANS THAT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT BEEN
GOING ON EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SHOULD COME TO AND END BY THIS
AFTERNOON. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MEETS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WEATHER WILL
THEN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A SHOWER
COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NAPLES COULD GET UP TO NEAR THE RECORD HIGH TODAY WHICH IS 93
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1989. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NAPLES AREA TODAY.

THE STRONG HIGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
WEEK...AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
SPEEDS DECREASE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY DOWN TO LESS THAN 15
KNOTS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SCEC WILL
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE GULF...ATLANTIC...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  89  76  88 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  88  78  87 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  89  77  88 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           73  92  71  91 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KJAX 261434
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY DEPICT NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE GULF COAST SEABREEZES SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND. OTHER
MODELS HOWEVER DO NOT SHOW THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE MAKING IT INTO
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT ARE MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH STORM COVERAGE.
ALL MODELS HOWEVER SHOW NO RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TODAY.

DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S INLAND) AND LIGHTER STEERING
FLOW WE WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM AND RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES TO INDICATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONLY OTHER UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ALL AREAS THIS MORNING.

THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL
BE WORKING WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF
SE GA WHERE SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA
LIFT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHAT
APPRECIABLE AND WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY NOON. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TERMINALS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN
RAIN FREE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...

MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS ONLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH LOWER SEAS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  89  66 /  50  20  30  20
SSI  81  73  81  72 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  87  72  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  83  73  82  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  90  69  89  66 /  40  30  10  10
OCF  92  69  90  67 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261434
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY DEPICT NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE GULF COAST SEABREEZES SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND. OTHER
MODELS HOWEVER DO NOT SHOW THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE MAKING IT INTO
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT ARE MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH STORM COVERAGE.
ALL MODELS HOWEVER SHOW NO RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TODAY.

DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S INLAND) AND LIGHTER STEERING
FLOW WE WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM AND RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES TO INDICATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONLY OTHER UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ALL AREAS THIS MORNING.

THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL
BE WORKING WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF
SE GA WHERE SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA
LIFT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHAT
APPRECIABLE AND WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY NOON. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TERMINALS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN
RAIN FREE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...

MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS ONLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH LOWER SEAS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  89  66 /  50  20  30  20
SSI  81  73  81  72 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  87  72  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  83  73  82  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  90  69  89  66 /  40  30  10  10
OCF  92  69  90  67 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261434
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY DEPICT NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE GULF COAST SEABREEZES SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND. OTHER
MODELS HOWEVER DO NOT SHOW THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE MAKING IT INTO
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT ARE MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH STORM COVERAGE.
ALL MODELS HOWEVER SHOW NO RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TODAY.

DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S INLAND) AND LIGHTER STEERING
FLOW WE WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM AND RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES TO INDICATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONLY OTHER UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ALL AREAS THIS MORNING.

THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL
BE WORKING WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF
SE GA WHERE SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA
LIFT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHAT
APPRECIABLE AND WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY NOON. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TERMINALS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN
RAIN FREE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...

MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS ONLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH LOWER SEAS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  89  66 /  50  20  30  20
SSI  81  73  81  72 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  87  72  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  83  73  82  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  90  69  89  66 /  40  30  10  10
OCF  92  69  90  67 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261434
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY DEPICT NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE GULF COAST SEABREEZES SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND. OTHER
MODELS HOWEVER DO NOT SHOW THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE MAKING IT INTO
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT ARE MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH STORM COVERAGE.
ALL MODELS HOWEVER SHOW NO RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TODAY.

DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S INLAND) AND LIGHTER STEERING
FLOW WE WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM AND RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES TO INDICATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONLY OTHER UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ALL AREAS THIS MORNING.

THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL
BE WORKING WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF
SE GA WHERE SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA
LIFT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHAT
APPRECIABLE AND WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY NOON. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TERMINALS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN
RAIN FREE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...

MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS ONLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH LOWER SEAS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  89  66 /  50  20  30  20
SSI  81  73  81  72 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  87  72  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  83  73  82  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  90  69  89  66 /  40  30  10  10
OCF  92  69  90  67 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 261434
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY DEPICT NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE GULF COAST SEABREEZES SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND. OTHER
MODELS HOWEVER DO NOT SHOW THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE MAKING IT INTO
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT ARE MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH STORM COVERAGE.
ALL MODELS HOWEVER SHOW NO RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TODAY.

DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S INLAND) AND LIGHTER STEERING
FLOW WE WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM AND RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES TO INDICATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONLY OTHER UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ALL AREAS THIS MORNING.

THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL
BE WORKING WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF
SE GA WHERE SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA
LIFT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHAT
APPRECIABLE AND WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY NOON. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TERMINALS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN
RAIN FREE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...

MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS ONLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH LOWER SEAS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  89  66 /  50  20  30  20
SSI  81  73  81  72 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  87  72  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  83  73  82  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  90  69  89  66 /  40  30  10  10
OCF  92  69  90  67 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/WALKER



000
FXUS62 KJAX 261434
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1034 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM
CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVELY DEPICT NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE GULF COAST SEABREEZES SLOWLY ADVANCES INLAND. OTHER
MODELS HOWEVER DO NOT SHOW THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE MAKING IT INTO
OUR AREA AND AS A RESULT ARE MUCH LESS ROBUST WITH STORM COVERAGE.
ALL MODELS HOWEVER SHOW NO RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR TODAY.

DUE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES (LOW 90S INLAND) AND LIGHTER STEERING
FLOW WE WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM AND RAISE POPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES TO INDICATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. THE ONLY OTHER UPDATE THIS MORNING WAS TO
REMOVE POPS FROM ALL AREAS THIS MORNING.

THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE WILL
BE WORKING WITH CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES OVER PORTIONS OF
SE GA WHERE SOME SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENERGY WILL PROVIDE SOME EXTRA
LIFT. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE SOMEWHAT
APPRECIABLE AND WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...WE CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TO LOW VFR
LEVELS BY NOON. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE
OF LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THUNDERSTORMS. THE TERMINALS NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN
RAIN FREE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...

MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS ONLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH LOWER SEAS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. FORECAST IS
ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  89  66 /  50  20  30  20
SSI  81  73  81  72 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  87  72  86  67 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  83  73  82  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  90  69  89  66 /  40  30  10  10
OCF  92  69  90  67 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/NELSON/WALKER




000
FXUS62 KTBW 261359
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
959 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. 12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDING PCPW VALUE OF
1.56 INCHES...COMBINED WITH W/V IMAGERY INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DRY
MID LEVEL AIR EAST OF FLORIDA CURRENTLY ADVECTING OVER THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND VERY SLOWLY PUSHING WEST WILL PROMOTE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WHICH WILL PUSH TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT MID LEVELS DUE TO DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE
EAST WILL ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. AS BOUNDARIES COLLIDE WITH THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE...AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS...WHO SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR AS A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WINDS OF GREATER THAN 35
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND/WATER LIGHTNING.

STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FROM 90 TO 95. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

&&


.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN



000
FXUS62 KTBW 261359
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
959 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. 12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
CONTINUE AROUND 20 KTS WHICH WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDING PCPW VALUE OF
1.56 INCHES...COMBINED WITH W/V IMAGERY INDICATING SIGNIFICANT DRY
MID LEVEL AIR EAST OF FLORIDA CURRENTLY ADVECTING OVER THE EASTERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND VERY SLOWLY PUSHING WEST WILL PROMOTE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CREATE A LAKE BREEZE OFF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WHICH WILL PUSH TOWARD THE TAMPA BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AT MID LEVELS DUE TO DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE
EAST WILL ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. AS BOUNDARIES COLLIDE WITH THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE...AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH RAPIDLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS...WHO SHOULD BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR AS A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WINDS OF GREATER THAN 35
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND/WATER LIGHTNING.

STRONG U/L RIDGE OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW
WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY FROM 90 TO 95. WILL UPDATE
FORECAST TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES.

&&


.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...11/MCKAUGHAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 261327
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS AN MCS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
TO THE NORTHERN GULF PROPAGATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...THIS CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY VIGOROUS WITH LOTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING NOTED. AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MCS
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SAMPLED SOME
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.7C/KM NOTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY] REMAINING LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY KDHN, AND CAUSE TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  40  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  40  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  60  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 261327
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS AN MCS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
TO THE NORTHERN GULF PROPAGATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...THIS CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY VIGOROUS WITH LOTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING NOTED. AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MCS
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SAMPLED SOME
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.7C/KM NOTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY] REMAINING LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY KDHN, AND CAUSE TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  40  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  40  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  60  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN



000
FXUS62 KTAE 261327
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS AN MCS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
TO THE NORTHERN GULF PROPAGATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...THIS CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY VIGOROUS WITH LOTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING NOTED. AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MCS
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SAMPLED SOME
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.7C/KM NOTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY] REMAINING LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY KDHN, AND CAUSE TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  40  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  40  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  60  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN



000
FXUS62 KTAE 261327
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS AN MCS STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA
TO THE NORTHERN GULF PROPAGATING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY...THIS CONVECTION IS
FAIRLY VIGOROUS WITH LOTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING NOTED. AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
SPREADING EASTWARD ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD
POOL. IN ADDITION...DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE MCS
WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF IT WITH ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE 12Z KTAE SOUNDING SAMPLED SOME
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 6.7C/KM NOTED. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY] REMAINING LOW CEILINGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY KDHN, AND CAUSE TEMPORARY DROPS IN CEILING AND
VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINALS UNTIL MVFR CEILINGS MOVE IN AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [332 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.


.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  40  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  40  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  60  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KMLB 261317
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES...

WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

DEEP AND DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5"...ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WHILE THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN ATLANTIC
CLOUD LINES AS WE CURRENTLY SEEING ON RADAR...OVERALL COVERAGE TODAY
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVERGENCE BAND...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF I-4 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE. WON`T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO
GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD ATLC SHRA MOVING INTO COAST FROM KMLB-KSUA THROUGH
15Z. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MORNING CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 17Z...THOUGH MAY LINGER LONGER AT
COAST.

OTHERWISE MINIMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD
SHRA/POSSIBLY TSRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM 15Z-19Z. MOST ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE MORE GUSTY TO 17-
18 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH PERIODS A ROUGH 4-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 261317
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES...

WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

DEEP AND DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5"...ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WHILE THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN ATLANTIC
CLOUD LINES AS WE CURRENTLY SEEING ON RADAR...OVERALL COVERAGE TODAY
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVERGENCE BAND...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF I-4 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE. WON`T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO
GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD ATLC SHRA MOVING INTO COAST FROM KMLB-KSUA THROUGH
15Z. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MORNING CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 17Z...THOUGH MAY LINGER LONGER AT
COAST.

OTHERWISE MINIMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD
SHRA/POSSIBLY TSRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM 15Z-19Z. MOST ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE MORE GUSTY TO 17-
18 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH PERIODS A ROUGH 4-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 261317
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES...

WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

DEEP AND DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5"...ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WHILE THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN ATLANTIC
CLOUD LINES AS WE CURRENTLY SEEING ON RADAR...OVERALL COVERAGE TODAY
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVERGENCE BAND...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF I-4 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE. WON`T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO
GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD ATLC SHRA MOVING INTO COAST FROM KMLB-KSUA THROUGH
15Z. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MORNING CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 17Z...THOUGH MAY LINGER LONGER AT
COAST.

OTHERWISE MINIMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD
SHRA/POSSIBLY TSRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM 15Z-19Z. MOST ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE MORE GUSTY TO 17-
18 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH PERIODS A ROUGH 4-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 261317
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES...

WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

DEEP AND DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5"...ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WHILE THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN ATLANTIC
CLOUD LINES AS WE CURRENTLY SEEING ON RADAR...OVERALL COVERAGE TODAY
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVERGENCE BAND...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF I-4 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE. WON`T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO
GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD ATLC SHRA MOVING INTO COAST FROM KMLB-KSUA THROUGH
15Z. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MORNING CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 17Z...THOUGH MAY LINGER LONGER AT
COAST.

OTHERWISE MINIMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD
SHRA/POSSIBLY TSRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM 15Z-19Z. MOST ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE MORE GUSTY TO 17-
18 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH PERIODS A ROUGH 4-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 261317
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES...

WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

DEEP AND DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5"...ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WHILE THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN ATLANTIC
CLOUD LINES AS WE CURRENTLY SEEING ON RADAR...OVERALL COVERAGE TODAY
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVERGENCE BAND...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF I-4 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE. WON`T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO
GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD ATLC SHRA MOVING INTO COAST FROM KMLB-KSUA THROUGH
15Z. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MORNING CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 17Z...THOUGH MAY LINGER LONGER AT
COAST.

OTHERWISE MINIMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD
SHRA/POSSIBLY TSRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM 15Z-19Z. MOST ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE MORE GUSTY TO 17-
18 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH PERIODS A ROUGH 4-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 261317
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
917 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES...

WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

DEEP AND DRY EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEP RIDGE TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE ATLANTIC.
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS RATHER ROBUST MID LEVEL INVERSION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIDGE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.5"...ALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

WHILE THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LOW TOPPED SHOWERS IN ATLANTIC
CLOUD LINES AS WE CURRENTLY SEEING ON RADAR...OVERALL COVERAGE TODAY
WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVERGENCE BAND...WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF I-4 FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WITH DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE. WON`T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO
GIVEN TRENDS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. ACTIVITY SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD ATLC SHRA MOVING INTO COAST FROM KMLB-KSUA THROUGH
15Z. MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH
MORNING CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 17Z...THOUGH MAY LINGER LONGER AT
COAST.

OTHERWISE MINIMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD
SHRA/POSSIBLY TSRA MAINLY WEST OF KSFB-KISM 15Z-19Z. MOST ACTIVITY
MOVES INTO WEST FL AFTER 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WITH MODERATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS...OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE MORE GUSTY TO 17-
18 KNOTS. SEAS 3-4 FT WITH PERIODS A ROUGH 4-6 SEC.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

DAB 27-MAY  75 1998
MCO 27-MAY  76 1953
MLB 27-MAY  76 1986
VRB 27-MAY  79 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261314
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
914 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE
COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AS SHOWERS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FEW COULD DEVELOP
INTO A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY NEAR THE GULF COAST. OTHERWISE, TODAY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE. ALSO, WITH THE WEAK SHOWERS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF WATERSPOUT. HOWEVER, ANY SPOUTS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF AFTER 18Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

.HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR THE VERY
DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PWAT VALUES TO FALL
DOWN TO AROUND 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE CLOSE THE THE
MINIMUM PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE IN THE 0.85
TO 0.95 INCH RANGE. THIS MEANS THAT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT BEEN
GOING ON EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SHOULD COME TO AND END BY THIS
AFTERNOON. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MEETS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WEATHER WILL
THEN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A SHOWER
COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NAPLES COULD GET UP TO NEAR THE RECORD HIGH TODAY WHICH IS 93
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1989. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NAPLES AREA TODAY.

THE STRONG HIGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
WEEK...AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
SPEEDS DECREASE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY DOWN TO LESS THAN 15
KNOTS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SCEC WILL
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE GULF...ATLANTIC...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  76  89  76 /  20  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  78 /  20  10  10  10
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           93  73  92  71 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261314
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
914 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST
COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWING THE
COVERAGE WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN AS SHOWERS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A FEW COULD DEVELOP
INTO A THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY NEAR THE GULF COAST. OTHERWISE, TODAY
LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER WISE. ALSO, WITH THE WEAK SHOWERS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A
BRIEF WATERSPOUT. HOWEVER, ANY SPOUTS THAT DO FORM ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF AFTER 18Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

.HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR THE VERY
DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PWAT VALUES TO FALL
DOWN TO AROUND 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE CLOSE THE THE
MINIMUM PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE IN THE 0.85
TO 0.95 INCH RANGE. THIS MEANS THAT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT BEEN
GOING ON EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SHOULD COME TO AND END BY THIS
AFTERNOON. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MEETS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WEATHER WILL
THEN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A SHOWER
COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NAPLES COULD GET UP TO NEAR THE RECORD HIGH TODAY WHICH IS 93
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1989. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NAPLES AREA TODAY.

THE STRONG HIGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
WEEK...AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
SPEEDS DECREASE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY DOWN TO LESS THAN 15
KNOTS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SCEC WILL
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE GULF...ATLANTIC...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  76  89  76 /  20  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  78 /  20  10  10  10
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           93  73  92  71 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KKEY 261300
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
900 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE KEY WEST RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE LOWER KEYS AND WEST. A LOOK AT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOWS A DEFINED SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE EAST...AND EARLY VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER KEYS AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING NEAR 20
KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ALONG HAWK CHANNEL...WITH PULASKI
SHOAL...SMITH SHOAL...AND LONG KEY INDICATING 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALL OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE ISLAND TERMINALS HAVE NEAR 15 KNOTS AND
ALREADY QUITE WARM AT 82 DEGREES WITH 74 PERCENT HUMIDITY.

.FORECAST...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AT
LEAST. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED JUST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING THE
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN SHIFTS...AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THERE WILL BE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW THAT WILL DISTURB
THE WIND FIELD AND HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PERTURBATIONS WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST ONE WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
THE REASONING FOR THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND HAWK
CHANNEL...WHILE THE REST OF THE KEYS WATERS TO THE NORTH...SMALL
CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR 20 KNOTS SOUTH...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN TODAY...AND AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS ARE UP TO 7 FEET ON THE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST
IS TO BLAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2000 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE
AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 81 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 81 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE
THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN
KEY WEST ON MAY 26TH. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET IN
1991 AND LAST RECORDED IN 2000. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ032>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS
DATA COLLECTION...............VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 261300
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
900 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE KEY WEST RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE WATERS
SURROUNDING THE LOWER KEYS AND WEST. A LOOK AT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOWS A DEFINED SWATH OF DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE EAST...AND EARLY VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER KEYS AT THIS HOUR. WINDS ARE STILL BLOWING NEAR 20
KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ALONG HAWK CHANNEL...WITH PULASKI
SHOAL...SMITH SHOAL...AND LONG KEY INDICATING 15 TO 20 KNOTS ALL OUT
OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST. THE ISLAND TERMINALS HAVE NEAR 15 KNOTS AND
ALREADY QUITE WARM AT 82 DEGREES WITH 74 PERCENT HUMIDITY.

.FORECAST...
NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AT
LEAST. THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PARKED JUST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS RIDGE IS PRODUCING THE
FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS AREA...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN SHIFTS...AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN. THERE WILL BE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW THAT WILL DISTURB
THE WIND FIELD AND HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED PERTURBATIONS WILL INCLUDE AT LEAST ONE WEAK
EASTERLY WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
THE REASONING FOR THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND HAWK
CHANNEL...WHILE THE REST OF THE KEYS WATERS TO THE NORTH...SMALL
CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE NEAR 20 KNOTS SOUTH...AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN TODAY...AND AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SEAS ARE UP TO 7 FEET ON THE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA COAST
IS TO BLAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT EYW AND MTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BRIEF...MVFR CEILINGS...BASED AT AROUND 2000 FEET...ARE CONCEIVABLE
AT EYW AND MTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS POSSIBILITY IS NOT GREAT
ENOUGH TO PLACE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME. SUSTAINED
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS EXPECTED FROM JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TO ABOUT 3000 FEET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
IS 81 DEGREES. THE TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
SHOULD NOT DROP BELOW 81 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WOULD TIE
THE DAILY RECORD FOR WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER MEASURED IN
KEY WEST ON MAY 26TH. THE CURRENT RECORD OF 81 DEGREES WAS SET IN
1991 AND LAST RECORDED IN 2000. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ032>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....BS
DATA COLLECTION...............VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261143
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
743 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF AFTER 18Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR THE VERY
DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PWAT VALUES TO FALL
DOWN TO AROUND 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE CLOSE THE THE
MINIMUM PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE IN THE 0.85
TO 0.95 INCH RANGE. THIS MEANS THAT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT BEEN
GOING ON EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SHOULD COME TO AND END BY THIS
AFTERNOON. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MEETS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WEATHER WILL
THEN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A SHOWER
COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NAPLES COULD GET UP TO NEAR THE RECORD HIGH TODAY WHICH IS 93
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1989. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NAPLES AREA TODAY.

THE STRONG HIGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
WEEK...AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
SPEEDS DECREASE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY DOWN TO LESS THAN 15
KNOTS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SCEC WILL
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE GULF...ATLANTIC...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  76  89  76 /  20  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  78 /  20  10  10  10
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           93  73  92  71 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261143
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
743 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
DRIER LOW/MID LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION AFTER THE MORNING. EASTERLY FLOW
10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR KAPF AFTER 18Z. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

..HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR THE VERY
DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PWAT VALUES TO FALL
DOWN TO AROUND 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE CLOSE THE THE
MINIMUM PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE IN THE 0.85
TO 0.95 INCH RANGE. THIS MEANS THAT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT BEEN
GOING ON EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SHOULD COME TO AND END BY THIS
AFTERNOON. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MEETS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WEATHER WILL
THEN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A SHOWER
COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NAPLES COULD GET UP TO NEAR THE RECORD HIGH TODAY WHICH IS 93
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1989. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NAPLES AREA TODAY.

THE STRONG HIGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
WEEK...AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
SPEEDS DECREASE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY DOWN TO LESS THAN 15
KNOTS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SCEC WILL
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE GULF...ATLANTIC...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  76  89  76 /  20  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  78 /  20  10  10  10
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           93  73  92  71 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KKEY 260845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS A DEEP LAYER
MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE SYSTEM SUPPORTS A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLORIDA KEYS LIE
WITHIN A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANKS
OF BOTH THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE AND THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RESIDENT AIR MASS OF COURSE IS MARITIME
TROPICAL WITH CURRENT FLORIDA KEYS AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. SHOWER COVERAGE IS MUCH
LESS THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABSENT.
SATELLITE ANIMATIONS OF BOTH WATER VAPOR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
INDICATE A LARGE SWATH OF MUCH DRIER AIR APPROACHING THE FLORIDA
KEYS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST. THIS LARGE AREA OF
DRY AIR SHOULD SHUT DOWN DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION LOCALLY FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY SHALLOW...FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE
CELLS PROVIDING SPOTTY RAINFALL. A SATELLITE-DERIVED SOUNDING FOR A
POINT NEAR KEY WEST AT 300 AM EDT ALREADY SHOWS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OF 8C AND 12C AT 850MB AND 700MB...RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE LAST
TWO CYCLES. REDUCED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE FEATURED FOR
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RAIN/WEATHER
REGIME THEREAFTER -- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH DAILY HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F...AND LOWS NEAR 80F...A LITTLE COOLER IN
THE RAIN. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY DIPPING TO NEAR 70F BRIEFLY.
BREEZY EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SPEEDS LIKELY HAVE PEAKED. BREEZES SHOULD BE BACK IN THE
MODERATE CATEGORY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...HAWK CHANNEL...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN FLORIDA BAY.
ADVISORIES MAY BE DROPPED LATER THIS MORNING. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SETUP WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH EAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS OF 025 TO 030 COULD OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING...IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1989...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91F WAS LAST RECORDED. TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  81  88  80 / 10 10 10 20
MARATHON  90  81  91  80 / 10 10 10 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-
     GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-
     GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 260845
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
445 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL COMPOSITE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING REVEALS A DEEP LAYER
MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS LARGE SYSTEM SUPPORTS A
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FLORIDA KEYS LIE
WITHIN A FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REGIME ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANKS
OF BOTH THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE AND THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RESIDENT AIR MASS OF COURSE IS MARITIME
TROPICAL WITH CURRENT FLORIDA KEYS AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S
AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. SHOWER COVERAGE IS MUCH
LESS THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABSENT.
SATELLITE ANIMATIONS OF BOTH WATER VAPOR AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
INDICATE A LARGE SWATH OF MUCH DRIER AIR APPROACHING THE FLORIDA
KEYS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND AREAS NORTH AND EAST. THIS LARGE AREA OF
DRY AIR SHOULD SHUT DOWN DEEP...MOIST CONVECTION LOCALLY FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY SHALLOW...FAST-MOVING CONVECTIVE
CELLS PROVIDING SPOTTY RAINFALL. A SATELLITE-DERIVED SOUNDING FOR A
POINT NEAR KEY WEST AT 300 AM EDT ALREADY SHOWS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
OF 8C AND 12C AT 850MB AND 700MB...RESPECTIVELY.

FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE LAST
TWO CYCLES. REDUCED RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE FEATURED FOR
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH A NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL RAIN/WEATHER
REGIME THEREAFTER -- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH DAILY HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F...AND LOWS NEAR 80F...A LITTLE COOLER IN
THE RAIN. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY DIPPING TO NEAR 70F BRIEFLY.
BREEZY EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...
THE WIND SPEEDS LIKELY HAVE PEAKED. BREEZES SHOULD BE BACK IN THE
MODERATE CATEGORY BY THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...HAWK CHANNEL...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN FLORIDA BAY.
ADVISORIES MAY BE DROPPED LATER THIS MORNING. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SETUP WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH EAST BREEZES ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AT THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS OF 025 TO 030 COULD OCCUR
EARLY THIS MORNING...IMPROVING AFTER SUNRISE.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1989...THE DAILY RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91F WAS LAST RECORDED. TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  81  88  80 / 10 10 10 20
MARATHON  90  81  91  80 / 10 10 10 20
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ032-GMZ033-GMZ034-
     GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-GMZ055-
     GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......KN

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMLB 260838 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ROUTINE DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

OTHERWISE...THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ATLANTIC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL ADVECT
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES WERE ALREADY
SHOWING VALUES JUST OVER ONE INCH OFFSHORE.

MOS POPS ARE BARELY MENTIONABLE TODAY AND CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF I-4 (LAKE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES). GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...
WILL FOLLOW MOS VALUES AND HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE BREEZY LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE 10
PERCENT OR LESS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EARLY MORNING COASTAL
POP MIGHT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF CANAVERAL.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT.

WED-FRI...
MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR BETWEEN
850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. THIS WILL
OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LEAD ISO
ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN
TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN THEN
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW 70S DUE TO CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...
RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT MON
WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THEN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...AS WILL AFTERNOON THUNDER
CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 4.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
PATTERN. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS...BUT OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE
MORE GUSTY TO 17-18 KNOTS. THIS WILL GENERATE POOR CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OPERATION...THOUGH JUST BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT THRESHOLD.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15
KNOTS...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY
REMAIN UP TO 4-5 FEET THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  71  85  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  90  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  75  85  73 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  72  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  90  71  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  90  71  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  86  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 260838 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ROUTINE DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

OTHERWISE...THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ATLANTIC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL ADVECT
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES WERE ALREADY
SHOWING VALUES JUST OVER ONE INCH OFFSHORE.

MOS POPS ARE BARELY MENTIONABLE TODAY AND CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF I-4 (LAKE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES). GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...
WILL FOLLOW MOS VALUES AND HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE BREEZY LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE 10
PERCENT OR LESS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EARLY MORNING COASTAL
POP MIGHT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF CANAVERAL.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT.

WED-FRI...
MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR BETWEEN
850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. THIS WILL
OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LEAD ISO
ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN
TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN THEN
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW 70S DUE TO CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...
RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT MON
WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THEN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...AS WILL AFTERNOON THUNDER
CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 4.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
PATTERN. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS...BUT OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE
MORE GUSTY TO 17-18 KNOTS. THIS WILL GENERATE POOR CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OPERATION...THOUGH JUST BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT THRESHOLD.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15
KNOTS...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY
REMAIN UP TO 4-5 FEET THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  71  85  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  90  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  75  85  73 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  72  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  90  71  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  90  71  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  86  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 260838 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ROUTINE DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

OTHERWISE...THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ATLANTIC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL ADVECT
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES WERE ALREADY
SHOWING VALUES JUST OVER ONE INCH OFFSHORE.

MOS POPS ARE BARELY MENTIONABLE TODAY AND CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF I-4 (LAKE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES). GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...
WILL FOLLOW MOS VALUES AND HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE BREEZY LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE 10
PERCENT OR LESS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EARLY MORNING COASTAL
POP MIGHT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF CANAVERAL.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT.

WED-FRI...
MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR BETWEEN
850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. THIS WILL
OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LEAD ISO
ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN
TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN THEN
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW 70S DUE TO CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...
RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT MON
WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THEN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...AS WILL AFTERNOON THUNDER
CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 4.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
PATTERN. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS...BUT OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE
MORE GUSTY TO 17-18 KNOTS. THIS WILL GENERATE POOR CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OPERATION...THOUGH JUST BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT THRESHOLD.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15
KNOTS...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY
REMAIN UP TO 4-5 FEET THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  71  85  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  90  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  75  85  73 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  72  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  90  71  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  90  71  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  86  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH




000
FXUS62 KMLB 260838 RRA
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...ROUTINE DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
333 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...ROUGH SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
WITH OCEAN DEATHS OCCURRING ON SUN/MON...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURF ZONE CONDITIONS...WILL CARRY A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.

OTHERWISE...THE DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE ATLANTIC IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL ADVECT
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES WERE ALREADY
SHOWING VALUES JUST OVER ONE INCH OFFSHORE.

MOS POPS ARE BARELY MENTIONABLE TODAY AND CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF I-4 (LAKE AND WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES). GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...
WILL FOLLOW MOS VALUES AND HAVE 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE BREEZY LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ATLANTIC CLOUD LINES...THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE 10
PERCENT OR LESS. RADAR SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EARLY MORNING COASTAL
POP MIGHT BE NEEDED SOUTH OF CANAVERAL.

MAX TEMPS LOOK CLOSE TO NORMAL BUT THE EAST FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS
ABOVE NORMAL. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT.

WED-FRI...
MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR BETWEEN
850-300MB BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION MID WEEK. THIS WILL
OVERALL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THU. HOWEVER MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS MAY LEAD ISO
ONSHORE MOVING SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN
THE MORNING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE
POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THU NIGHT/FRI WHEN PW VALUES BEGIN
TO INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. EVEN THEN
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW...UP TO 20-30 PERCENT BY WEEKS END.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
MID-UPPER 80S COAST TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE
TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW THE LOW 70S DUE TO CONTINUED
ONSHORE WINDS.

SAT-MON...
RIDGE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FL
WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WX PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISO/SCT ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT/MORNING WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
POPS AROUND 30-40 PERCENT SAT/SUN INCREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT MON
WITH GREATEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING INLAND. TEMPS CONTINUE TO
RANGE AROUND NEAR NORMAL VALUES DURING THE DAY AND NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING. THEN SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL MOVE IN. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL BE LOWER TODAY...AS WILL AFTERNOON THUNDER
CHANCES WEST OF INTERSTATE 4.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM
OFFSHORE THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
PATTERN. SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KNOTS...BUT OCCASIONALLY A LITTLE
MORE GUSTY TO 17-18 KNOTS. THIS WILL GENERATE POOR CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OPERATION...THOUGH JUST BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENT THRESHOLD.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS AN OVERALL MODERATE ONSHORE
BREEZE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIND SPEEDS UP TO AT LEAST 10-15
KNOTS...INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY
REMAIN UP TO 4-5 FEET THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...MLB HAD A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE (79) YESTERDAY.
THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 SET IN 1991. THIS LOW TEMP WAS ALSO
THE THE WARMEST FOR THE MONTH OF MAY.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME RECORD WARM LOWS AGAIN TODAY:

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  71  85  72 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  90  71  89  70 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  86  75  85  73 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  87  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  92  72  90  70 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  90  71  89  68 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  90  71  88  70 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  86  73  86  72 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 260737
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
335 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...DEEP SE FLOW WILL PRODUCE
INLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
SEABREEZES MERGE OVER WESTERN ZONES. ON WEDNESDAY THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.
THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPORT HIGH END SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
NORTH AND WEST ZONES WITH THE HELP OF MERGING SEABREEZES. DEEPER DRY
AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
KEEP EASTERN ZONES DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM /WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE REGION WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW INTACT
BELOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. A DRIER AIRMASS
IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL ROTATE FROM THE ATLC OVER NE FL AND
SE GA AND THIS WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE
MAY WITH RAIN CHANCES AT 10% OR LESS ALONG THE COAST AND ONLY 20-30%
POPS WELL INLAND ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND INLD SE GA. THE ATLC
COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL TRACK IN EARLY EACH DAY AND SHOULD HOLD
MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 INLAND. MIN TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE FOR LATE
MAY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRI-TUE/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE REGION AND THE DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE STEERING FLOW
SLOWLY BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLOW INCREASE
IN AFTN/EVE CONVECTION TO SCATTERED LEVELS...MAINLY OVER INLAND
AREAS AS THE ATLC COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND EACH DAY BUT AT A
SLOWER PACE DUE TO WEAKER SELY STEERING FLOW. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY
EXPECTED NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND AND MID 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NOW WILL BECOME MVFR THIS MORNING AS
CIGS BETWEEN 2 TO 3 KFT DEVELOP. ALSO...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE DUE TO
PATCHY FOG INLAND AT VQQ AND GNV TIL 13Z. VCTS AT GNV AFTER 17Z AS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND
WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. ONSHORE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED AND WILL BE
IN 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EASTERLY SWELLS IN LONG
FETCH WILL KEEP SEAS IN 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE WINDS AND EASTERLY SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  89  66 /  40  10  30  10
SSI  81  73  81  72 /  20  10  10  10
JAX  87  72  86  67 /  10  10  10   0
SGJ  83  73  82  70 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  90  69  89  66 /  40  20  10   0
OCF  92  69  90  67 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIBURA/HESS



000
FXUS62 KMFL 260734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
334 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR THE VERY
DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PWAT VALUES TO FALL
DOWN TO AROUND 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE CLOSE THE THE
MINIMUM PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE IN THE 0.85
TO 0.95 INCH RANGE. THIS MEANS THAT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT BEEN
GOING ON EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SHOULD COME TO AND END BY THIS
AFTERNOON. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MEETS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WEATHER WILL
THEN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A SHOWER
COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NAPLES COULD GET UP TO NEAR THE RECORD HIGH TODAY WHICH IS 93
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1989. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NAPLES AREA TODAY.

THE STRONG HIGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
WEEK...AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
SPEEDS DECREASE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY DOWN TO LESS THAN 15
KNOTS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SCEC WILL
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE GULF...ATLANTIC...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  76  89  76 /  20  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  78 /  20  10  10  10
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           93  73  92  71 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 260734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
334 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY EASTERLY
WIND FLOW TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR THE VERY
DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY.

THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE PWAT VALUES TO FALL
DOWN TO AROUND 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BE CLOSE THE THE
MINIMUM PWAT VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE IN THE 0.85
TO 0.95 INCH RANGE. THIS MEANS THAT THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT BEEN
GOING ON EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS SHOULD COME TO AND END BY THIS
AFTERNOON. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MEETS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. THE WEATHER WILL
THEN REMAIN DRY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE A SHOWER
COULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

NAPLES COULD GET UP TO NEAR THE RECORD HIGH TODAY WHICH IS 93
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1989. THEREFORE...NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NAPLES AREA TODAY.

THE STRONG HIGH WILL START TO BREAK DOWN LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE BREEZY
EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO RELAX OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
WEEK...AND ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE EAST
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, BUT ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SEE
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE
SPEEDS DECREASE FROM BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY DOWN TO LESS THAN 15
KNOTS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GOING ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SCEC WILL
ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE GULF...ATLANTIC...AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  76  89  76 /  20  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  78 /  20  10  10  10
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  20  10  10  10
NAPLES           93  73  92  71 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KTAE 260732
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THERE
ARE SEVERAL LOWS AND/OR VORT CENTERS OF NOTE WITHIN THE TROUGH, THE
NEAREST FEATURE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SURFACE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO DIXIE. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BRING
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION AT LOWER LEVELS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. MOST
WRFS MAINTAIN THIS FEATURES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WITH SOME WEAKENING
AS IT REACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. EVEN IF THE
FEATURE DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST, ITS REMNANT OUTFLOW WILL
HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS
WILL ALSO BE THE REGION THAT GETS THE MOST CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT FROM
DPVA. THEREFORE, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AL ZONES (80%) AND TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST (40-50%
ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND). SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, ALTHOUGH MOST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE FLOODING CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SPOTS IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE COULD GET
1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES
IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY]

ONCE AGAIN, WE EXPECT A ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS TO SET IN DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT VLD. THE CEILINGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING. DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH GREATER CHANCES NORTHWEST VS
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, TS IS INCLUDED WITH GREATER CERTAINTY AT DHN
THAN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  50  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  50  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  50  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TOMORROW FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 260732
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THERE
ARE SEVERAL LOWS AND/OR VORT CENTERS OF NOTE WITHIN THE TROUGH, THE
NEAREST FEATURE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SURFACE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO DIXIE. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BRING
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION AT LOWER LEVELS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. MOST
WRFS MAINTAIN THIS FEATURES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WITH SOME WEAKENING
AS IT REACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. EVEN IF THE
FEATURE DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST, ITS REMNANT OUTFLOW WILL
HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS
WILL ALSO BE THE REGION THAT GETS THE MOST CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT FROM
DPVA. THEREFORE, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AL ZONES (80%) AND TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST (40-50%
ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND). SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, ALTHOUGH MOST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE FLOODING CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SPOTS IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE COULD GET
1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES
IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY]

ONCE AGAIN, WE EXPECT A ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS TO SET IN DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT VLD. THE CEILINGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING. DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH GREATER CHANCES NORTHWEST VS
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, TS IS INCLUDED WITH GREATER CERTAINTY AT DHN
THAN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  50  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  50  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  50  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TOMORROW FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 260732
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THERE
ARE SEVERAL LOWS AND/OR VORT CENTERS OF NOTE WITHIN THE TROUGH, THE
NEAREST FEATURE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SURFACE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO DIXIE. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BRING
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION AT LOWER LEVELS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. MOST
WRFS MAINTAIN THIS FEATURES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WITH SOME WEAKENING
AS IT REACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. EVEN IF THE
FEATURE DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST, ITS REMNANT OUTFLOW WILL
HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS
WILL ALSO BE THE REGION THAT GETS THE MOST CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT FROM
DPVA. THEREFORE, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AL ZONES (80%) AND TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST (40-50%
ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND). SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, ALTHOUGH MOST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE FLOODING CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SPOTS IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE COULD GET
1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES
IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY]

ONCE AGAIN, WE EXPECT A ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS TO SET IN DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT VLD. THE CEILINGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING. DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH GREATER CHANCES NORTHWEST VS
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, TS IS INCLUDED WITH GREATER CERTAINTY AT DHN
THAN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  50  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  50  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  50  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TOMORROW FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 260732
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S WITH A RIDGE AXIS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. WHILE THERE
ARE SEVERAL LOWS AND/OR VORT CENTERS OF NOTE WITHIN THE TROUGH, THE
NEAREST FEATURE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF INFLUENCING WEATHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AS IT CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SURFACE ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
RIDGING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO DIXIE. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BRING
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE REGION AT LOWER LEVELS. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA. MOST
WRFS MAINTAIN THIS FEATURES AS IT MOVES EASTWARD WITH SOME WEAKENING
AS IT REACHES OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. EVEN IF THE
FEATURE DOES NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST, ITS REMNANT OUTFLOW WILL
HELP ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THIS
WILL ALSO BE THE REGION THAT GETS THE MOST CONTRIBUTION TO LIFT FROM
DPVA. THEREFORE, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, POPS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST AL ZONES (80%) AND TAPER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST (40-50%
ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND). SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE
PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS, ALTHOUGH MOST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD BE INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE FLOODING CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED SPOTS IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE INLAND FL PANHANDLE COULD GET
1-2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 90S SOUTHEAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE KEEPING COASTAL COMMUNITIES
IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF +PV IS FORECAST TO STRETCH ESSENTIALLY THE
ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE +PV ANOMALY IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH SHOULD STILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, COUPLED WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY SET UP SOME HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
WEST OF THE APALACHICOLA AND CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVERS, THOUGH
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. ON THURSDAY, A WEAKER
SOUTHERN STREAM ANOMALY WILL MOVE INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA AND ONCE
AGAIN FOCUS THE BULK OF CONVECTION WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE
WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

WHILE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS IN WEAK
RIDGING LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND, THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE BY SATURDAY. WHILE THEY TEND TO AGREE THAT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND, THE GFS BREAKS OFF A WAVE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREADS
WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A RATHER WET WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL TREND TOWARDS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MORE
CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS, SCATTERED ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AND RESULT
IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY]

ONCE AGAIN, WE EXPECT A ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS TO SET IN DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE AT VLD. THE CEILINGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR BY MID MORNING. DECENT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY WITH GREATER CHANCES NORTHWEST VS
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, TS IS INCLUDED WITH GREATER CERTAINTY AT DHN
THAN ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...

EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EACH
NIGHT, EXPECT ENHANCEMENTS IN WINDS AND SEAS; THOUGH THE SURGES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW HEADLINE LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THIS WEEK WITH WETTING
RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE RATHER WET FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
REGION. EXPECT AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH GENERALLY AN
INCH OR LESS EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY TO TALLAHASSEE. TRAINING
CELLS, OR JUST GENERAL SLOW STORM MOTION WILL YIELD ISOLATED
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE DOUBLE THE AVERAGE. GENERALLY SPEAKING,
RIVERS ARE WELL POISED TO HANDLE THE AFOREMENTIONED AMOUNTS,
THOUGH SENSITIVE BASINS THAT GET THE ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY
REACH ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   89  72  85  70  87 /  50  30  50  20  30
PANAMA CITY   84  74  84  73  83 /  50  40  70  20  50
DOTHAN        87  69  85  68  84 /  80  40  70  40  70
ALBANY        90  70  86  68  86 /  70  40  70  40  30
VALDOSTA      91  69  88  66  88 /  50  40  40  10  20
CROSS CITY    92  70  88  67  87 /  50  40  30  10  10
APALACHICOLA  86  75  83  73  82 /  30  40  60  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TOMORROW FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 260657
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
257 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CUBA NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR ACROSS FLORIDA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HIGH
RIDGES SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SIMILIAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
MOVE WESTWARD. WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THE
MERGING OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THIS AREA WILL BE
THE CATALYST FOR THE STRONGEST AND HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A
STAGNANT AND UNCHANGING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARM AS WELL RANGING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OUT
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAKER EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...
NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT RATHER LOW AROUND 20 PERCENT...ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO NOT BE AS BAD WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7
INCHES. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SOME WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING.

EARLY NEXT WEEK PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND THUS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD MOVE TO INLAND AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO THE
SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE TAF TERMINALS SAW SOME SORT OF IMPACTS
YESTERDAY EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
TERMINALS SAW BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING IMPACTS WITH
THESE PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS HAVE SINCE CLEARED UP AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR
TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP. SIMILIAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS STARTING BETWEEN 18-21Z.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  73  91  71 /  50  40  20  10
FMY  92  72  92  70 /  40  20  30  10
GIF  92  71  91  69 /  20   0  10   0
SRQ  91  72  90  70 /  50  30  30  20
BKV  92  69  90  67 /  50  20  20  10
SPG  91  75  89  73 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 260657
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
257 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CUBA NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR ACROSS FLORIDA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HIGH
RIDGES SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SIMILIAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
MOVE WESTWARD. WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THE
MERGING OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THIS AREA WILL BE
THE CATALYST FOR THE STRONGEST AND HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A
STAGNANT AND UNCHANGING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARM AS WELL RANGING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OUT
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAKER EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...
NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT RATHER LOW AROUND 20 PERCENT...ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO NOT BE AS BAD WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7
INCHES. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SOME WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING.

EARLY NEXT WEEK PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND THUS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD MOVE TO INLAND AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO THE
SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE TAF TERMINALS SAW SOME SORT OF IMPACTS
YESTERDAY EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
TERMINALS SAW BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING IMPACTS WITH
THESE PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS HAVE SINCE CLEARED UP AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR
TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP. SIMILIAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS STARTING BETWEEN 18-21Z.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  73  91  71 /  50  40  20  10
FMY  92  72  92  70 /  40  20  30  10
GIF  92  71  91  69 /  20   0  10   0
SRQ  91  72  90  70 /  50  30  30  20
BKV  92  69  90  67 /  50  20  20  10
SPG  91  75  89  73 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 260657
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
257 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - WEDNESDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS FROM CUBA NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE. THIS HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FACTOR ACROSS FLORIDA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HIGH
RIDGES SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SIMILIAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND
MOVE WESTWARD. WITH PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST. THE
MERGING OF THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THIS AREA WILL BE
THE CATALYST FOR THE STRONGEST AND HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A
STAGNANT AND UNCHANGING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN 4 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE COMING IN WITH LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE WARM AS WELL RANGING FROM THE
LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.MID/LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OUT
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL RIDGE WEST SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING A LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY NEXT WEEK A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAKER EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES. THEREFORE...
NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THE BEST
CHANCE...ALBEIT RATHER LOW AROUND 20 PERCENT...ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO NOT BE AS BAD WITH DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGHEST POPS WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION SHOULD OCCUR.

FOR THE WEEKEND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7
INCHES. THIS SHOULD HELP INCREASE THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SOME WITH
SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS LATE IN THE DAY AND EARLY
EVENING.

EARLY NEXT WEEK PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE FURTHER
INLAND AND THUS THE BEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD MOVE TO INLAND AREAS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES COOLER CLOSE TO THE COAST THANKS TO THE
SEA BREEZE...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...MOST OF THE TAF TERMINALS SAW SOME SORT OF IMPACTS
YESTERDAY EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SOME
TERMINALS SAW BRIEF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY AND CEILING IMPACTS WITH
THESE PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS HAVE SINCE CLEARED UP AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THEN TURNING ONSHORE FOR
TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE SEA BREEZE SETS UP. SIMILIAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS STARTING BETWEEN 18-21Z.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO
RIDGE SOUTHWEST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE WILL SET UP PRODUCING AN ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  73  91  71 /  50  40  20  10
FMY  92  72  92  70 /  40  20  30  10
GIF  92  71  91  69 /  20   0  10   0
SRQ  91  72  90  70 /  50  30  30  20
BKV  92  69  90  67 /  50  20  20  10
SPG  91  75  89  73 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/WYNN
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...69/CLOSE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260607
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
207 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. DRIER AIR ARRIVING THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE
THEN, SOME SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAWN. STILL UNCLEAR IF A GULF BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME 25KT GUSTS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IS FOR THE 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH 90 TO 100% OF THE
MEMBERS OF NAEFS HAVING VALUES HIGHER THAN ANY REANALYSIS IN A
THREE WEEK PERIOD CENTERED ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST ALSO SHOWS
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST
BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND LASTING UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WE COULD STILL EXPERIENCE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CONVERGENCE AREAS ENHANCED BY THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS MAINTAINED FOR
THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS
ALSO EXTENDED FOR THE GULF WATERS DUE TO AN AIRCRAFT WATERSPOUT
REPORT. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND IT VERY LIKELY THAT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN A LITTLE BIT MORE MORTH OF EAST TONIGHT,
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE BAND COMING OFF FROM
GRAND BAHAMA COULD AFFECT THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND SOME OF THE
PALM BEACH COASTAL AREAS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
THUNDER, THUS ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z FROM THIS MORNING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS THAT THE WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 300 MB HAVE NOW BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS IS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  77  87  74 /  20  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  87  76 /  20  20  20  10
MIAMI            88  77  86  75 /  20  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  72  92  70 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260607
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
207 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. DRIER AIR ARRIVING THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE
THEN, SOME SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAWN. STILL UNCLEAR IF A GULF BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME 25KT GUSTS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IS FOR THE 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH 90 TO 100% OF THE
MEMBERS OF NAEFS HAVING VALUES HIGHER THAN ANY REANALYSIS IN A
THREE WEEK PERIOD CENTERED ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST ALSO SHOWS
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST
BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND LASTING UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WE COULD STILL EXPERIENCE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CONVERGENCE AREAS ENHANCED BY THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS MAINTAINED FOR
THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS
ALSO EXTENDED FOR THE GULF WATERS DUE TO AN AIRCRAFT WATERSPOUT
REPORT. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND IT VERY LIKELY THAT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN A LITTLE BIT MORE MORTH OF EAST TONIGHT,
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE BAND COMING OFF FROM
GRAND BAHAMA COULD AFFECT THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND SOME OF THE
PALM BEACH COASTAL AREAS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
THUNDER, THUS ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z FROM THIS MORNING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS THAT THE WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 300 MB HAVE NOW BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS IS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  77  87  74 /  20  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  87  76 /  20  20  20  10
MIAMI            88  77  86  75 /  20  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  72  92  70 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 260607
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
207 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. DRIER AIR ARRIVING THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE
THEN, SOME SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAWN. STILL UNCLEAR IF A GULF BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME 25KT GUSTS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IS FOR THE 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH 90 TO 100% OF THE
MEMBERS OF NAEFS HAVING VALUES HIGHER THAN ANY REANALYSIS IN A
THREE WEEK PERIOD CENTERED ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST ALSO SHOWS
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST
BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND LASTING UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WE COULD STILL EXPERIENCE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CONVERGENCE AREAS ENHANCED BY THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS MAINTAINED FOR
THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS
ALSO EXTENDED FOR THE GULF WATERS DUE TO AN AIRCRAFT WATERSPOUT
REPORT. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND IT VERY LIKELY THAT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN A LITTLE BIT MORE MORTH OF EAST TONIGHT,
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE BAND COMING OFF FROM
GRAND BAHAMA COULD AFFECT THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND SOME OF THE
PALM BEACH COASTAL AREAS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
THUNDER, THUS ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z FROM THIS MORNING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS THAT THE WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 300 MB HAVE NOW BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS IS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  77  87  74 /  20  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  87  76 /  20  20  20  10
MIAMI            88  77  86  75 /  20  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  72  92  70 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260607
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
207 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES. DRIER AIR ARRIVING THROUGH TODAY SHOULD
LIMIT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE
THEN, SOME SHOWERS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AROUND
DAWN. STILL UNCLEAR IF A GULF BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME 25KT GUSTS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IS FOR THE 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH 90 TO 100% OF THE
MEMBERS OF NAEFS HAVING VALUES HIGHER THAN ANY REANALYSIS IN A
THREE WEEK PERIOD CENTERED ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST ALSO SHOWS
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST
BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND LASTING UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WE COULD STILL EXPERIENCE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CONVERGENCE AREAS ENHANCED BY THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS MAINTAINED FOR
THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS
ALSO EXTENDED FOR THE GULF WATERS DUE TO AN AIRCRAFT WATERSPOUT
REPORT. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND IT VERY LIKELY THAT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN A LITTLE BIT MORE MORTH OF EAST TONIGHT,
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE BAND COMING OFF FROM
GRAND BAHAMA COULD AFFECT THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND SOME OF THE
PALM BEACH COASTAL AREAS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
THUNDER, THUS ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z FROM THIS MORNING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS THAT THE WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 300 MB HAVE NOW BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS IS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  77  87  74 /  20  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  87  76 /  20  20  20  10
MIAMI            88  77  86  75 /  20  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  72  92  70 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KKEY 260240
AFDKEY

ZCZC MIAWRKAFD 260226
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1045 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY AS OF 900 PM OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS DEPICT A 75 KNOT SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET MIGRATING FROM
ACROSS SOUTHER BAJA CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BEFORE DECELERATING AND SPLITTING OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF...WITH THE NORTHERN ARM MOVING NORTHWARDS UP THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN BRANCH WEAKENING. THE AXIS OF A MID AND UPPER
RIDGE IS NEAR 29 NORTH 77 WEST...WITH WATER VAPOR ILLUSTRATING THE
CUSP OF THE DRIEST AIR REMAINS EAST OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE.

AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVELS...(SURFACE TO 700
MB)...LATEST AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 900 PM DETAIL A STRONG NEAR 1030 MB
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC NEAR 37 NORTH 62 WEST.
THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING ILLUSTRATED A MODERATELY MOIST AND
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERE WITH FRESH EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM OFF THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 800 MB...AND
COLUMNAR PWAT (PRECIPITABLE WATER) WAS AT 1.59 INCHES.

.CURRENTLY...AS OF 900 PM...KEY WEST RADAR AND SATELLITE DETECTS A
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS...THE UPPER KEYS AND
FLORIDA BAY. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF IN THE UPPER KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY ARE RECORDING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND
20 KNOTS...WITH 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ARE
SUGGESTING WINDS ARE BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS.

.FORECAST...TWEAKED THE WINDS UPWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS GIVEN BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLANDS. WINDS HAVE BEEN A FEW KNOTS LOWER OFF
OF THE UPPER KEYS BUT THIS HAS BEEN NEAR SHOWERS WHICH ARE DWINDLING
GIVEN EXPECTED MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST GIVEN
THE AFOREMENTIONED REGIONAL SCALE RIDGING. SINCE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOULD PWAT FALLING DOWN BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES AND THE DRIER
AIR TREND HAS BEEN OBSERVED GIVEN THE DWINDLING...LOWERED POPS TO 10
PERCENT...BUT SUFFICIENT LOWER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW WILL STILL ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. WINDS IN FLORIDA BAY OUTSIDE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAVE BEEN A FEW KNOTS LOWER...SO HAVE REPLACED THE ADVISORY
WITH A SCEC ACROSS THESE WATERS. WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT OFF OF THE
UPPER KEYS. THESE MINOR MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE ON THE
UPDATE...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL WATERS OVERNIGHT FOR
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH TO 20
KNOTS...ACROSS ALL WATERS EXCEPT FLORIDA BAY...WHERE A CAUTION IS IN
PLACE FOR 15 TO 20 KNOTS. ALSO HAVE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE
FLORIDA STRAITS GIVEN SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATERS.

&&
.AVIATION... UNTIL 12Z/26TH...OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF MVFR
ENCOUNTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. MOSTLY EAST WINDS OF 10 TO 13 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.CLIMATE... ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34
INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL
RECORD FOR MAY 25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1871.

&&

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GMZ052>055-072>075 & GMZ032>035-042>044

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/CLIMATE/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR.....CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KTBW 260149
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDERNEATH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH WV IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSE OF VERY DRY
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS DRIER AIR WILL SOMEWHAT INFLUENCE OUR
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS IT MAKES SOME PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER OUR
ZONES.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE 1030+MB ATLANTIC HIGH CENTERED OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS SITUATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...PROVIDING OUR STATE WITH A SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

SAW QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY FROM COASTAL PASCO COUNTY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
SUNCOAST. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NATURE COAST AND OVER THE INLAND AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS NOW ENDED DOWN TOWARD THE FORT MYERS AREA...BUT
AROUND THE GENERAL TAMPA BAY VICINITY...THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF A
LATE DAY SEA-BREEZE/OUTFLOW MERGER CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF STORMS.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR...WITH STORMS TRYING TO PUSH OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOR THINGS TO REALLY QUITE DOWN
ACROSS PARTS OF MANATEE/PINELLAS COUNTIES...BUT OVERALL...WILL
EXPECT A QUIET/DRY OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAND ZONES AFTER 03-04Z.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGER OVER THE MARINE ZONES...AS
SHOWN BY JUST ABOUT ALL HIRES CONVECTION ALLOW GUIDANCE.

FOR TUESDAY...THE RIDGE POSITION SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...BUT
STILL REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL BRING OUR LOW
LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. NOW...GENERALLY...GIVEN A NORMAL
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FOR THE WARM SEASON...THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW
REGIME IS ONE OF OUR MOST ACTIVE FOR WEST COAST CONVECTION. WHAT
WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST LATER TUESDAY WILL BE THE SLOW
ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW OUR
REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE REALLY HOSTILE MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR. AT THE VERY LEAST WE CAN SAY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WILL
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THEREFORE...WE REALLY HAVE A
BATTLE BETWEEN A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PATTERN TO GET
UPDRAFT GOING...AND A HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT THE
UPDRAFTS/CONVECTIVE COLUMNS WILL BE GROWING INTO.

MOST OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE WIDELY
SCT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THE SECOND
HALF OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS DRIFTING WEST/NW INTO THE
GULF. CURRENT FORECASTS PEAK AT 40-50% POPS FOR LATER
TUESDAY...WITH NO LIKELY 60% OR GREATER RAIN CHANCES MENTIONED.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MIX OF GOOD AND BAD TOWARD DEEP
CONVECTION. IF THE DRY AIR MAKES MORE PROGRESS WESTWARD...THEN
THE POPS MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT. KEEP IN MIND THAT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ONE OF THE POOREST FORECAST VARIABLES BY
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY
WHERE BOATERS ON THE COASTAL WATERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO REACT TO QUICKLY DEVELOPING STORMS
NEAR THE COAST...SINCE THESE STORMS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFFSHORE.

ONE CONCERN FOR THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...IS THE LOWER THETAE
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT THAT MAY ACTUALLY SET UP A SITUATION MORE
FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. THE LOWER THETAE AIR WILL PROMOTE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING THROUGH ENTRAINMENT OF THE AIR INTO THE
CONVECTIVE COLUMN. WAS CHECKING OUT THE VALUES FOR THE WET
MICROBURST SEVERITY INDEX (WMSI) FROM THE LATEST NAM...AND THEY ARE
ACTUALLY QUITE HIGH FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASICALLY...STORMS
LOOK TO BE MORE PRONE TO DOWNBURST/MICROBURST EVENTS ON TUESDAY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE LATE DAY OCCURRENCES ONCE AGAIN. BEFORE
THE STORMS FIRE...OUR POSITION UNDER THE STRONG RIDGE SHOULD AGAIN
ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS TAKING ITS TIME SETTLING DOWN AROUND THE TAMPA BAY
AREA. KSRQ/KPIE/KTPA/KLAL...WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH 04Z...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOUR TUESDAY. LATE IN THE DAY...WIDELY SCT
STORMS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 19-20Z. ALL TERMINALS WILL RUN
THE RISK OF A BRIEF DOWNPOUR OR ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN A TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION-LEVEL
WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND THEN
RAPIDLY PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. BOATERS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR
QUICKLY SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  74  93 /  50  50  10  30
FMY  74  93  72  94 /  20  40  10  30
GIF  74  93  72  93 /  10  20   0  20
SRQ  74  92  72  92 /  60  50  10  30
BKV  72  93  70  93 /  20  50  10  30
SPG  77  91  77  90 /  60  50  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA



000
FXUS62 KTBW 260149
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
949 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA UNDERNEATH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS JUST TO THE EAST OF OUR
AREA...WITH WV IMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE EXPANSE OF VERY DRY
MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR EXTENDING FROM OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS DRIER AIR WILL SOMEWHAT INFLUENCE OUR
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AS IT MAKES SOME PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER OUR
ZONES.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE 1030+MB ATLANTIC HIGH CENTERED OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST RIDGES BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS SITUATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...PROVIDING OUR STATE WITH A SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

SAW QUITE A BIT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE ACTIVITY FROM COASTAL PASCO COUNTY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
SUNCOAST. MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION OCCURRED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REST OF THE NATURE COAST AND OVER THE INLAND AREA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY HAS NOW ENDED DOWN TOWARD THE FORT MYERS AREA...BUT
AROUND THE GENERAL TAMPA BAY VICINITY...THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF A
LATE DAY SEA-BREEZE/OUTFLOW MERGER CONTINUE TO FIRE OFF STORMS.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE I-75
CORRIDOR...WITH STORMS TRYING TO PUSH OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
MAY TAKE ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOR THINGS TO REALLY QUITE DOWN
ACROSS PARTS OF MANATEE/PINELLAS COUNTIES...BUT OVERALL...WILL
EXPECT A QUIET/DRY OVERNIGHT OVER THE LAND ZONES AFTER 03-04Z.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGER OVER THE MARINE ZONES...AS
SHOWN BY JUST ABOUT ALL HIRES CONVECTION ALLOW GUIDANCE.

FOR TUESDAY...THE RIDGE POSITION SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...BUT
STILL REMAINS TO OUR NORTH...THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL BRING OUR LOW
LEVEL WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. NOW...GENERALLY...GIVEN A NORMAL
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN FOR THE WARM SEASON...THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW
REGIME IS ONE OF OUR MOST ACTIVE FOR WEST COAST CONVECTION. WHAT
WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST LATER TUESDAY WILL BE THE SLOW
ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ALL SHOW OUR
REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE REALLY HOSTILE MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR. AT THE VERY LEAST WE CAN SAY THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WILL
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE AS PREVIOUS DAYS. THEREFORE...WE REALLY HAVE A
BATTLE BETWEEN A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PATTERN TO GET
UPDRAFT GOING...AND A HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THAT THE
UPDRAFTS/CONVECTIVE COLUMNS WILL BE GROWING INTO.

MOST OF THE HIRES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE WIDELY
SCT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...AND MAINLY NEAR THE COAST THE SECOND
HALF OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS DRIFTING WEST/NW INTO THE
GULF. CURRENT FORECASTS PEAK AT 40-50% POPS FOR LATER
TUESDAY...WITH NO LIKELY 60% OR GREATER RAIN CHANCES MENTIONED.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE MIX OF GOOD AND BAD TOWARD DEEP
CONVECTION. IF THE DRY AIR MAKES MORE PROGRESS WESTWARD...THEN
THE POPS MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED DOWN A BIT. KEEP IN MIND THAT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS ONE OF THE POOREST FORECAST VARIABLES BY
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY
WHERE BOATERS ON THE COASTAL WATERS NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THE WEATHER AND BE PREPARED TO REACT TO QUICKLY DEVELOPING STORMS
NEAR THE COAST...SINCE THESE STORMS WILL RAPIDLY MOVE OFFSHORE.

ONE CONCERN FOR THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP...IS THE LOWER THETAE
AIR ARRIVING ALOFT THAT MAY ACTUALLY SET UP A SITUATION MORE
FAVORABLE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. THE LOWER THETAE AIR WILL PROMOTE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING THROUGH ENTRAINMENT OF THE AIR INTO THE
CONVECTIVE COLUMN. WAS CHECKING OUT THE VALUES FOR THE WET
MICROBURST SEVERITY INDEX (WMSI) FROM THE LATEST NAM...AND THEY ARE
ACTUALLY QUITE HIGH FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BASICALLY...STORMS
LOOK TO BE MORE PRONE TO DOWNBURST/MICROBURST EVENTS ON TUESDAY
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT ALOFT.

STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE LATE DAY OCCURRENCES ONCE AGAIN. BEFORE
THE STORMS FIRE...OUR POSITION UNDER THE STRONG RIDGE SHOULD AGAIN
ALLOW MANY LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS TAKING ITS TIME SETTLING DOWN AROUND THE TAMPA BAY
AREA. KSRQ/KPIE/KTPA/KLAL...WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT
OF A SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH 04Z...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOUR TUESDAY. LATE IN THE DAY...WIDELY SCT
STORMS WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 19-20Z. ALL TERMINALS WILL RUN
THE RISK OF A BRIEF DOWNPOUR OR ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...ALTHOUGH
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TUESDAY...OTHER THAN A TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEA BREEZE. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION-LEVEL
WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...NO
HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND THEN
RAPIDLY PUSH WESTWARD INTO THE GULF. BOATERS ON THE COASTAL WATERS
SHOULD KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE WEATHER DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR
QUICKLY SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER APPROACH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  74  93 /  50  50  10  30
FMY  74  93  72  94 /  20  40  10  30
GIF  74  93  72  93 /  10  20   0  20
SRQ  74  92  72  92 /  60  50  10  30
BKV  72  93  70  93 /  20  50  10  30
SPG  77  91  77  90 /  60  50  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA




000
FXUS62 KJAX 260136
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
936 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STORMS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND THEN END AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
CLOUDS INCREASING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE AM WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OCNL
MVFR CIGS 1500-2500 FT LIKELY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT IN THE AFTN TO SCT-BKN DECK AT 3000-4500
FT. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS TUE AFTN NEAR AND AROUND THE GNV TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: DATA BUOY OBS INDICATE SWELLS HAVE DECREASED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON AND LET THE HIGH RISK EXPIRE THIS EVE. SWELLS WILL STILL
BE ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR A MODERATE RISK ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  89  69  88 /  20  60  40  40
SSI  75  84  74  83 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  71  88  69  87 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  75  86  73  84 /  10  10  10   0
GNV  70  91  68  90 /  10  40  10  10
OCF  71  92  69  91 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PETERSON/SHASHY/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 260136
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
936 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STORMS ACROSS THE SUWANNEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AND THEN END AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
CLOUDS INCREASING LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE AM WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CUMULUS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OCNL
MVFR CIGS 1500-2500 FT LIKELY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. CIGS SHOULD LIFT IN THE AFTN TO SCT-BKN DECK AT 3000-4500
FT. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS TUE AFTN NEAR AND AROUND THE GNV TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...NO HEADLINES. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS
3 TO 5 FEET.

RIP CURRENTS: DATA BUOY OBS INDICATE SWELLS HAVE DECREASED FROM THIS
AFTERNOON AND LET THE HIGH RISK EXPIRE THIS EVE. SWELLS WILL STILL
BE ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR A MODERATE RISK ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  89  69  88 /  20  60  40  40
SSI  75  84  74  83 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  71  88  69  87 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  75  86  73  84 /  10  10  10   0
GNV  70  91  68  90 /  10  40  10  10
OCF  71  92  69  91 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PETERSON/SHASHY/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KMLB 260103
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HI PRES RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE LCL WX PATTERN FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND MODIFY. EVEN SO...LCL PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A
DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S
INTERIOR...M/U70S ALONG THE COAST.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED H100-H85 MOISTURE SPANNING
THE  BAHAMA BANK AND EXTENDING INTO S FL WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN
80-90PCT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW LVL E/SE FLOW...THE MOISTURE IS
COMBINING WITH WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF THE BAHAMAS TO GENERATE A
PERSISTENT STREAMER OF SHRAS THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
TREASURE COAST WELL INTO THE EVNG. RADAR SHOWS MAX TOPS ARE REACHING
UP TO 35-40KFT AS THEY TREK OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...BUT
WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY AND A CONVERGENT UPR LVL HAVE BEEN CHOKING
THEM OFF QUICKLY ONCE THEY MOVE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A FEW
HAVE SURVIVED AS FAR INLAND AS BLUE CYPRESS LAKE IN W INDIAN RIVER
CO...BUT NONE HAVE MADE IT INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.

WITH POOR DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THRU
THE H100-H70 LYR...ANY SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND THE RADAR
TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST TO 30PCT. REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 26/18Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 26/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
26/12Z. BTWN 26/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 9-14KTS. AFT
26/15...E/SE INCREASING TO 11-16KTS WITH SFC G21-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 26/12...ISOLD MVFR/BRIEF IFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES
S OF KTIX. BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KOMN-KOBE. AFT
25/16Z... ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS SHIFTING E OF KOMN-KOBE...
ENDING COASTAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY/C-MAN STATIONS SHOW OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS ARND 15KTS...SEAS ARND 4FT. HI
PRES RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVR THE W ATLC OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
ALLOW CURRENT CONDITIONS TO HOLD STEADY WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE
E/SE BREEZE PREVAILING. INCOMING SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS IN
THE 3-4FT RANGE...UP TO 5FT IN THE GULF STREAM.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION...OVERALL CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS. WILL ADDRESS CONDITIONS IN THE SYNOPSIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN      TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 9PM)
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991  74
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014  71
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991  79
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991  77

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 260103
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HI PRES RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE LCL WX PATTERN FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND MODIFY. EVEN SO...LCL PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A
DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S
INTERIOR...M/U70S ALONG THE COAST.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED H100-H85 MOISTURE SPANNING
THE  BAHAMA BANK AND EXTENDING INTO S FL WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN
80-90PCT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW LVL E/SE FLOW...THE MOISTURE IS
COMBINING WITH WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF THE BAHAMAS TO GENERATE A
PERSISTENT STREAMER OF SHRAS THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
TREASURE COAST WELL INTO THE EVNG. RADAR SHOWS MAX TOPS ARE REACHING
UP TO 35-40KFT AS THEY TREK OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...BUT
WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY AND A CONVERGENT UPR LVL HAVE BEEN CHOKING
THEM OFF QUICKLY ONCE THEY MOVE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A FEW
HAVE SURVIVED AS FAR INLAND AS BLUE CYPRESS LAKE IN W INDIAN RIVER
CO...BUT NONE HAVE MADE IT INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.

WITH POOR DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THRU
THE H100-H70 LYR...ANY SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND THE RADAR
TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST TO 30PCT. REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 26/18Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 26/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
26/12Z. BTWN 26/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 9-14KTS. AFT
26/15...E/SE INCREASING TO 11-16KTS WITH SFC G21-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 26/12...ISOLD MVFR/BRIEF IFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES
S OF KTIX. BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KOMN-KOBE. AFT
25/16Z... ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS SHIFTING E OF KOMN-KOBE...
ENDING COASTAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY/C-MAN STATIONS SHOW OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS ARND 15KTS...SEAS ARND 4FT. HI
PRES RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVR THE W ATLC OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
ALLOW CURRENT CONDITIONS TO HOLD STEADY WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE
E/SE BREEZE PREVAILING. INCOMING SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS IN
THE 3-4FT RANGE...UP TO 5FT IN THE GULF STREAM.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION...OVERALL CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS. WILL ADDRESS CONDITIONS IN THE SYNOPSIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN      TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 9PM)
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991  74
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014  71
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991  79
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991  77

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY



000
FXUS62 KMLB 260103
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HI PRES RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE LCL WX PATTERN FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND MODIFY. EVEN SO...LCL PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A
DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S
INTERIOR...M/U70S ALONG THE COAST.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED H100-H85 MOISTURE SPANNING
THE  BAHAMA BANK AND EXTENDING INTO S FL WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN
80-90PCT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW LVL E/SE FLOW...THE MOISTURE IS
COMBINING WITH WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF THE BAHAMAS TO GENERATE A
PERSISTENT STREAMER OF SHRAS THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
TREASURE COAST WELL INTO THE EVNG. RADAR SHOWS MAX TOPS ARE REACHING
UP TO 35-40KFT AS THEY TREK OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...BUT
WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY AND A CONVERGENT UPR LVL HAVE BEEN CHOKING
THEM OFF QUICKLY ONCE THEY MOVE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A FEW
HAVE SURVIVED AS FAR INLAND AS BLUE CYPRESS LAKE IN W INDIAN RIVER
CO...BUT NONE HAVE MADE IT INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.

WITH POOR DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THRU
THE H100-H70 LYR...ANY SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND THE RADAR
TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST TO 30PCT. REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 26/18Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 26/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
26/12Z. BTWN 26/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 9-14KTS. AFT
26/15...E/SE INCREASING TO 11-16KTS WITH SFC G21-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 26/12...ISOLD MVFR/BRIEF IFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES
S OF KTIX. BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KOMN-KOBE. AFT
25/16Z... ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS SHIFTING E OF KOMN-KOBE...
ENDING COASTAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY/C-MAN STATIONS SHOW OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS ARND 15KTS...SEAS ARND 4FT. HI
PRES RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVR THE W ATLC OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
ALLOW CURRENT CONDITIONS TO HOLD STEADY WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE
E/SE BREEZE PREVAILING. INCOMING SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS IN
THE 3-4FT RANGE...UP TO 5FT IN THE GULF STREAM.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION...OVERALL CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS. WILL ADDRESS CONDITIONS IN THE SYNOPSIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN      TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 9PM)
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991  74
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014  71
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991  79
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991  77

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY




000
FXUS62 KMLB 260103
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE HI PRES RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE LCL WX PATTERN FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED INTO THE W ATLC WHERE IT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN
AND MODIFY. EVEN SO...LCL PGRAD REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A
DEEP AND STEADY E/SE FLOW THAT WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE L/M70S
INTERIOR...M/U70S ALONG THE COAST.

LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS A BAND OF ENHANCED H100-H85 MOISTURE SPANNING
THE  BAHAMA BANK AND EXTENDING INTO S FL WITH MEAN RH VALUES BTWN
80-90PCT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW LVL E/SE FLOW...THE MOISTURE IS
COMBINING WITH WAKE VORTICIES DOWNWIND OF THE BAHAMAS TO GENERATE A
PERSISTENT STREAMER OF SHRAS THAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
TREASURE COAST WELL INTO THE EVNG. RADAR SHOWS MAX TOPS ARE REACHING
UP TO 35-40KFT AS THEY TREK OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS...BUT
WEAK MID LVL VORTICITY AND A CONVERGENT UPR LVL HAVE BEEN CHOKING
THEM OFF QUICKLY ONCE THEY MOVE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. A FEW
HAVE SURVIVED AS FAR INLAND AS BLUE CYPRESS LAKE IN W INDIAN RIVER
CO...BUT NONE HAVE MADE IT INTO THE INTERIOR COUNTIES.

WITH POOR DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND WINDS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THRU
THE H100-H70 LYR...ANY SHRA ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. GIVEN THE EXPANSE OF THE LOW LVL MOISTURE AND THE RADAR
TREND OVER THE PAST FEW HRS...WILL INCREASE POPS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST TO 30PCT. REMAINDER OF THE FCST LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.AVIATION...THRU 26/18Z
SFC WINDS: THRU 26/06Z...E/SE DIMINISHING TO 4-8KTS...CONTG THRU
26/12Z. BTWN 26/12Z-26/15Z...E/SE INCREASING TO 9-14KTS. AFT
26/15...E/SE INCREASING TO 11-16KTS WITH SFC G21-24KTS.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 26/12...ISOLD MVFR/BRIEF IFR SHRAS COASTAL SITES
S OF KTIX. BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z...ISOLD MVFR SHRAS E OF KOMN-KOBE. AFT
25/16Z... ISOLD MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS SHIFTING E OF KOMN-KOBE...
ENDING COASTAL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST BUOY/C-MAN STATIONS SHOW OVERALL CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED
SLIGHTLY WITH SUSTAINED SFC WINDS ARND 15KTS...SEAS ARND 4FT. HI
PRES RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVR THE W ATLC OVERNIGHT THAT WILL
ALLOW CURRENT CONDITIONS TO HOLD STEADY WITH A GENTLE TO MODERATE
E/SE BREEZE PREVAILING. INCOMING SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS IN
THE 3-4FT RANGE...UP TO 5FT IN THE GULF STREAM.

WHILE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATION...OVERALL CONDITIONS DO NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS. WILL ADDRESS CONDITIONS IN THE SYNOPSIS.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN      TODAY`S MIN (AS OF 9PM)
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991  74
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014  71
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991  79
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991  77

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...KELLY



000
FXUS62 KTAE 260057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM. ONCE
THESE STORMS DIE OUT...SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOCUS OVER
THE MORE UNSTABLE AND HUMID OFFSHORE AIR MASS. PARTIAL BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PULLS GULF MOISTURE
INLAND...MORE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]...

CONVECTION HAS WANED AND TRAVELED WEST OF ABY WHILE LATE DAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT VLD AIR SPACE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WEAKENING WIND FIELD AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INLAND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SHALLOW
FOG...ISOLATED SHORT LIVED IFR DECKS AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS PREDICT AN ACTIVE BREEZE DAY...MORNING THUNDER FOR
TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA
ANTICIPATED ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [355 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(40 TO 50 PERCENT). WETTING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY FROM AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH AND EASTERN
PLAINS LOWER PRESSURE...WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR TERM ONSHORE TRANSPORT.
TRANSPORT TO WEAKEN AND VEER WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK EARLY MORNING NEAR
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 AM LOCAL TIME...AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTHS TO ACHIEVE 5 TO 7 K FT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  89  71  89  70 /  10  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   74  84  73  84  72 /  20  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  30  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  20  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  20  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 260057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM. ONCE
THESE STORMS DIE OUT...SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOCUS OVER
THE MORE UNSTABLE AND HUMID OFFSHORE AIR MASS. PARTIAL BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PULLS GULF MOISTURE
INLAND...MORE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]...

CONVECTION HAS WANED AND TRAVELED WEST OF ABY WHILE LATE DAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT VLD AIR SPACE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WEAKENING WIND FIELD AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INLAND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SHALLOW
FOG...ISOLATED SHORT LIVED IFR DECKS AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS PREDICT AN ACTIVE BREEZE DAY...MORNING THUNDER FOR
TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA
ANTICIPATED ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [355 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(40 TO 50 PERCENT). WETTING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY FROM AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH AND EASTERN
PLAINS LOWER PRESSURE...WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR TERM ONSHORE TRANSPORT.
TRANSPORT TO WEAKEN AND VEER WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK EARLY MORNING NEAR
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 AM LOCAL TIME...AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTHS TO ACHIEVE 5 TO 7 K FT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  89  71  89  70 /  10  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   74  84  73  84  72 /  20  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  30  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  20  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  20  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 260057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM. ONCE
THESE STORMS DIE OUT...SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOCUS OVER
THE MORE UNSTABLE AND HUMID OFFSHORE AIR MASS. PARTIAL BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PULLS GULF MOISTURE
INLAND...MORE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]...

CONVECTION HAS WANED AND TRAVELED WEST OF ABY WHILE LATE DAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT VLD AIR SPACE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WEAKENING WIND FIELD AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INLAND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SHALLOW
FOG...ISOLATED SHORT LIVED IFR DECKS AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS PREDICT AN ACTIVE BREEZE DAY...MORNING THUNDER FOR
TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA
ANTICIPATED ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [355 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(40 TO 50 PERCENT). WETTING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY FROM AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH AND EASTERN
PLAINS LOWER PRESSURE...WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR TERM ONSHORE TRANSPORT.
TRANSPORT TO WEAKEN AND VEER WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK EARLY MORNING NEAR
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 AM LOCAL TIME...AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTHS TO ACHIEVE 5 TO 7 K FT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  89  71  89  70 /  10  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   74  84  73  84  72 /  20  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  30  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  20  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  20  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 260057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
857 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM. ONCE
THESE STORMS DIE OUT...SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS WILL FOCUS OVER
THE MORE UNSTABLE AND HUMID OFFSHORE AIR MASS. PARTIAL BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PULLS GULF MOISTURE
INLAND...MORE HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THE LOWER
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY]...

CONVECTION HAS WANED AND TRAVELED WEST OF ABY WHILE LATE DAY STORM
DEVELOPMENT MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT VLD AIR SPACE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WEAKENING WIND FIELD AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INLAND MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES IN SHALLOW
FOG...ISOLATED SHORT LIVED IFR DECKS AROUND SUNRISE. HIGH RESOLUTION
SHORT TERM MODELS PREDICT AN ACTIVE BREEZE DAY...MORNING THUNDER FOR
TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA
ANTICIPATED ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACHIEVE THE UPPER 80S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [355 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).


.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.


.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(40 TO 50 PERCENT). WETTING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY FROM AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH AND EASTERN
PLAINS LOWER PRESSURE...WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR TERM ONSHORE TRANSPORT.
TRANSPORT TO WEAKEN AND VEER WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK EARLY MORNING NEAR
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 AM LOCAL TIME...AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTHS TO ACHIEVE 5 TO 7 K FT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   72  89  71  89  70 /  10  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   74  84  73  84  72 /  20  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  30  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  20  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  20  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TUESDAY FOR
     COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOOD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...BLOOD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 260056
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
856 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IS FOR THE 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH 90 TO 100% OF THE
MEMBERS OF NAEFS HAVING VALUES HIGHER THAN ANY REANALYSIS IN A
THREE WEEK PERIOD CENTERED ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST ALSO SHOWS
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST
BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND LASTING UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WE COULD STILL EXPERIENCE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CONVERGENCE AREAS ENHANCED BY THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS MAINTAINED FOR
THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS
ALSO EXTENDED FOR THE GULF WATERS DUE TO AN AIRCRAFT WATERSPOUT
REPORT. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND IT VERY LIKELY THAT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN A LITTLE BIT MORE MORTH OF EAST TONIGHT,
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE BAND COMING OFF FROM
GRAND BAHAMA COULD AFFECT THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND SOME OF THE
PALM BEACH COASTAL AREAS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
THUNDER, THUS ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z FROM THIS MORNING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS THAT THE WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 300 MB HAVE NOW BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS IS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  88  77  86 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  92 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260056
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
856 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

THERE IS STILL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OF THE MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA. THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE IS FOR THE 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH 90 TO 100% OF THE
MEMBERS OF NAEFS HAVING VALUES HIGHER THAN ANY REANALYSIS IN A
THREE WEEK PERIOD CENTERED ON TUESDAY. THE FORECAST ALSO SHOWS
DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST
BETWEEN 500 AND 700 MB AFTER 06Z TUESDAY AND LASTING UNTIL
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WE COULD STILL EXPERIENCE
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE CONVERGENCE AREAS ENHANCED BY THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS MAINTAINED FOR
THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS IS
ALSO EXTENDED FOR THE GULF WATERS DUE TO AN AIRCRAFT WATERSPOUT
REPORT. THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AND IT VERY LIKELY THAT WILL BE EXTENDED INTO WEDNESDAY.
AS THE SURFACE WINDS TURN A LITTLE BIT MORE MORTH OF EAST TONIGHT,
THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVERGENCE BAND COMING OFF FROM
GRAND BAHAMA COULD AFFECT THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND SOME OF THE
PALM BEACH COASTAL AREAS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
THUNDER, THUS ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS OF THE COASTAL WATERS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM THIS EVENING
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z FROM THIS MORNING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
IS THAT THE WINDS BETWEEN 500 AND 300 MB HAVE NOW BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS IS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOVEMENT OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BE MORE
APPARENT BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  88  77  86 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  92 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 252346
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
EVENING DUE TO WEAK LINES OF CONVERGENCE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS PUSHING ASHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT SO ADDED VCSH
ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS REMAINING DOMINANT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY REDUCING OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MET GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT A
WEAK GULF BREEZE FORMING BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KAPF
BUT NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SO LEFT EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. IF THE WINDS WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY,
THE RISK MAY REDUCE SOME, BUT RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR CONVECTION, THE SURFACE HIGH DOES LOOK TO STRENGTHEN SOME
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A 500MB HIGH ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. ALSO, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK ITS WAY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ALSO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ANY OF THEM
COULD TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN, AND BY FRIDAY, ENOUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK IN
TO BRING POPS BACK UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. GIVEN THE
CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR OVER TO THE GULF COAST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOME INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE AREAS THAT MAY SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, KEEPING THE
EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
MAY KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,AND THEN
INCREASE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  88  77  86 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  92 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...10/CD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 252346
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
EVENING DUE TO WEAK LINES OF CONVERGENCE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS PUSHING ASHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT SO ADDED VCSH
ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS REMAINING DOMINANT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY REDUCING OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MET GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT A
WEAK GULF BREEZE FORMING BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KAPF
BUT NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SO LEFT EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. IF THE WINDS WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY,
THE RISK MAY REDUCE SOME, BUT RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR CONVECTION, THE SURFACE HIGH DOES LOOK TO STRENGTHEN SOME
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A 500MB HIGH ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. ALSO, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK ITS WAY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ALSO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ANY OF THEM
COULD TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN, AND BY FRIDAY, ENOUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK IN
TO BRING POPS BACK UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. GIVEN THE
CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR OVER TO THE GULF COAST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOME INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE AREAS THAT MAY SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, KEEPING THE
EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
MAY KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,AND THEN
INCREASE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  88  77  86 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  92 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252346
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
EVENING DUE TO WEAK LINES OF CONVERGENCE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS PUSHING ASHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT SO ADDED VCSH
ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS REMAINING DOMINANT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY REDUCING OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MET GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT A
WEAK GULF BREEZE FORMING BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KAPF
BUT NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SO LEFT EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. IF THE WINDS WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY,
THE RISK MAY REDUCE SOME, BUT RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR CONVECTION, THE SURFACE HIGH DOES LOOK TO STRENGTHEN SOME
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A 500MB HIGH ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. ALSO, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK ITS WAY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ALSO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ANY OF THEM
COULD TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN, AND BY FRIDAY, ENOUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK IN
TO BRING POPS BACK UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. GIVEN THE
CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR OVER TO THE GULF COAST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOME INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE AREAS THAT MAY SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, KEEPING THE
EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
MAY KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,AND THEN
INCREASE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  88  77  86 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  92 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...10/CD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 252346
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
EVENING DUE TO WEAK LINES OF CONVERGENCE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS PUSHING ASHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT SO ADDED VCSH
ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS REMAINING DOMINANT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY REDUCING OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MET GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT A
WEAK GULF BREEZE FORMING BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KAPF
BUT NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SO LEFT EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. IF THE WINDS WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY,
THE RISK MAY REDUCE SOME, BUT RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR CONVECTION, THE SURFACE HIGH DOES LOOK TO STRENGTHEN SOME
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A 500MB HIGH ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. ALSO, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK ITS WAY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ALSO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ANY OF THEM
COULD TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN, AND BY FRIDAY, ENOUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK IN
TO BRING POPS BACK UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. GIVEN THE
CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR OVER TO THE GULF COAST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOME INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE AREAS THAT MAY SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, KEEPING THE
EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
MAY KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,AND THEN
INCREASE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  88  77  86 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  92 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...10/CD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 252346
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
EVENING DUE TO WEAK LINES OF CONVERGENCE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS PUSHING ASHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT SO ADDED VCSH
ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS REMAINING DOMINANT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY REDUCING OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MET GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT A
WEAK GULF BREEZE FORMING BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KAPF
BUT NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SO LEFT EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. IF THE WINDS WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY,
THE RISK MAY REDUCE SOME, BUT RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR CONVECTION, THE SURFACE HIGH DOES LOOK TO STRENGTHEN SOME
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A 500MB HIGH ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. ALSO, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK ITS WAY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ALSO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ANY OF THEM
COULD TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN, AND BY FRIDAY, ENOUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK IN
TO BRING POPS BACK UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. GIVEN THE
CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR OVER TO THE GULF COAST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOME INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE AREAS THAT MAY SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, KEEPING THE
EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
MAY KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,AND THEN
INCREASE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  88  77  86 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  92 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...10/CD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 252346
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
EVENING DUE TO WEAK LINES OF CONVERGENCE. LATEST HRRR DEPICTS SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS PUSHING ASHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT SO ADDED VCSH
ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS REMAINING DOMINANT. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY REDUCING OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MET GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT A
WEAK GULF BREEZE FORMING BRIEFLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KAPF
BUT NOT SUPPORTED BY OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE SO LEFT EAST-SOUTHEAST
FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. IF THE WINDS WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY,
THE RISK MAY REDUCE SOME, BUT RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR CONVECTION, THE SURFACE HIGH DOES LOOK TO STRENGTHEN SOME
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A 500MB HIGH ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. ALSO, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK ITS WAY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ALSO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ANY OF THEM
COULD TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN, AND BY FRIDAY, ENOUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK IN
TO BRING POPS BACK UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. GIVEN THE
CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR OVER TO THE GULF COAST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOME INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE AREAS THAT MAY SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, KEEPING THE
EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
MAY KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,AND THEN
INCREASE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  77  87 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  88  77  86 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  92 /  10  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...10/CD



000
FXUS62 KTAE 251955 CCA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF
CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(40 TO 50 PERCENT). WETTING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY FROM AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH AND EASTERN
PLAINS LOWER PRESSURE...WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR TERM ONSHORE TRANSPORT.
TRANSPORT TO WEAKEN AND VEER WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK EARLY MORNING NEAR
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 AM LOCAL TIME...AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTHS TO ACHIEVE 5 TO 7 K FT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  89  71  89  70 /  20  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   75  84  73  84  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  40  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  40  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  40  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 251955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF
CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  89  71  89  70 /  20  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   75  84  73  84  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  40  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  40  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  40  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 251955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF
CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  89  71  89  70 /  20  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   75  84  73  84  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  40  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  40  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  40  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 251955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF
CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  89  71  89  70 /  20  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   75  84  73  84  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  40  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  40  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  40  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 251955
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF
CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSION
VALUES ARE POSSIBLE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  89  71  89  70 /  20  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   75  84  73  84  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  40  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  40  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  40  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 251955 CCA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
355 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO POP UP ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF
CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE
TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.


.SHORT TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...

500 MB HEIGHTS WILL FALL 20 TO 40 METERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS THE 593 DM HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WEAKENS AND TRANSLATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME SITUATED UNDER A VERY
WEAK TROUGH ALOFT, WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE GFS SOLUTION
FORECASTS LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION TO OUR EAST, ALONG THE 305
AND 310 K SURFACES. THIS WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE,
WHICH IS WHY OUR POP IS LOWER ACROSS OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES.
OTHERWISE OUR POP WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE- CLOSE TO 50 PERCENT EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL WORK
AGAINST STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A "PULSE" SEVERE STORM OR TWO.


.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESCENDING, DRYING AIR FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE
ITS GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AS THE
POP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA RETURNS TO AT OR BELOW CLIMO
VALUES (20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING). POPS WILL RETURN TO
EARLY SUMMERTIME LEVELS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK TROUGH,
ACCOMPANIED BY AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO
LEVELS, WITH LOWS IN THE 65-70 RANGE AND HIGHS AROUND 90. (OF
COURSE, TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE MODERATED BY A FEW
DEGREES).

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY] SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO POP UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS EVENING. ONCE THESE STORMS DIE OUT, THE GREATEST POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME BRIEF CLEARING ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND
APALACHEE BAY THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO SE FLOW BRINGING IN MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF, TONIGHT WILL BE HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW 70S.

&&

.MARINE...

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE
MARINE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WITH MODERATE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND IN THE MORNINGS, AND LIGHT, MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
(40 TO 50 PERCENT). WETTING RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EACH DAY FROM AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE INDUCED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH A TIGHTER LOWER LEVEL
EASTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH AND EASTERN
PLAINS LOWER PRESSURE...WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR TERM ONSHORE TRANSPORT.
TRANSPORT TO WEAKEN AND VEER WEST OVERNIGHT. WEAK EARLY MORNING NEAR
LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL MIX OUT BY 9 OR 10 AM LOCAL TIME...AFTERNOON
MIXING DEPTHS TO ACHIEVE 5 TO 7 K FT. HIGHEST AFTERNOON DISPERSION WILL
GENERALLY BE OVER THE MORE EASTERN COUNTIES OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

BETWEEN THE DAILY SEABREEZE FRONTS AND ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL FORCING,
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE WEST OF THE AL-GA LINE/THE
APALACHICOLA RIVER, WITH WIDESPREAD TOTALS AROUND 1.5-2". EAST OF
THIS BORDER, RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE AROUND 0.5-1". WITH AREA RIVERS
GENERALLY AT NORMAL OR LOW LEVELS, NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM THESE RAINFALL TOTALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   74  89  71  89  70 /  20  40  20  40  20
PANAMA CITY   75  84  73  84  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
DOTHAN        70  87  69  88  68 /  30  70  20  50  30
ALBANY        70  90  70  88  67 /  40  50  30  50  30
VALDOSTA      70  90  69  90  66 /  40  50  50  30  20
CROSS CITY    72  91  69  91  66 /  40  40  50  20  10
APALACHICOLA  76  85  74  86  72 /  40  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MERRIFIELD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...DVD/MERRIFIELD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...BLOOD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTBW 251936
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
336 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
INTERIOR ZONES AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE AND RADAR PINNED
RIGHT AT THE COAST AND THIS ADDITIONAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS. THE ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST
THROUGH THE EVENING AND TONIGHT WITH A QUIET OVERNIGHT PERIOD
EXPECTED. FOR TUESDAY...THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS PLACE TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL GIVE US ANOTHER DAY OF EASTERLY FLOW.
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME EVEN DRIER AIR MAKING ITS WAY INTO OUR
EASTERN ZONES...AND THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT CONVECTION OVER THE
INTERIOR...BUT STILL EXPECTED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM ELSEWHERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY)...
U/L REX BLOCK WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF RETROGRADING FROM WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA TO ALASKA/EASTERN PACIFIC.  MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
WILL RETREAT NORTH INTO CANADA. SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL WEAKEN
WITH A S/W PUSHING SLOWLY ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...SHIFTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.  AN U/L RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  THIS WILL KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL
HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY.  THIS WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON PUSHING OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH WILL LOWER POPS AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.  DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING POPS...WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES EACH AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS
FOR TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TERMINALS WITH
ADDITIONAL TEMPO GROUPS LIKELY NEEDED FOR OTHER SITES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT.
VFR IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS
OTHER THAN A TURN ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. AN EASTERLY SURGE TO EXERCISE CAUTION-LEVEL WINDS IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  91  74  93 /  50  50  10  30
FMY  74  93  72  94 /  30  40  10  30
GIF  74  93  72  93 /  20  20   0  20
SRQ  74  92  72  92 /  60  50  10  30
BKV  72  93  70  93 /  40  50  10  30
SPG  77  91  77  90 /  60  50  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
LONG TERM...13/OGLESBY



000
FXUS62 KJAX 251928
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
328 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL FOCUS ALONG THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES IN.

CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70
TO 75 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...THE
STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SLOW MOVING GULF
COAST SEABREEZE TO ADVANCE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS OUR INTERIOR ZONES WHERE
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S. DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THESE AREAS PRIMARILY DRY.

THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SE GA.
ELSEWHERE...THE DEEPER DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOW 80S AT THE COAST
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AROUND 90 OVER THE INLAND ZONES. THE
DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPS WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW.
MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES ON BRINGING IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN AT
LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AT INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KGNV. STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING. KGNV COULD SEE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
WEEK...LEADING TO A PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
INTO MID WEEK...WHICH WILL DECREASE WINDS AND WAVES.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODERATE RISK
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  89  69  88 /  20  60  40  40
SSI  75  84  74  83 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  71  88  69  87 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  75  86  73  84 /  10  10  10   0
GNV  70  91  68  90 /  10  40  10  10
OCF  71  92  69  91 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHULER/




000
FXUS62 KJAX 251928
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
328 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL FOCUS ALONG THE INTERSTATE
75 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING...AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES IN.

CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70
TO 75 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...THE
STEERING FLOW LOOKS TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SLOW MOVING GULF
COAST SEABREEZE TO ADVANCE INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS OUR INTERIOR ZONES WHERE
TEMPS WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S. DRIER DEEP LAYER AIR OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL PUSH INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
KEEP THESE AREAS PRIMARILY DRY.

THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF SE GA.
ELSEWHERE...THE DEEPER DRY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND KEEP MOST OF OUR AREA DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.

DAYTIME TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE IN THE LOW 80S AT THE COAST
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS AROUND 90 OVER THE INLAND ZONES. THE
DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME COOLER NIGHTTIME TEMPS WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE VERY MUCH. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW.
MODEL CONSENSUS AGREES ON BRINGING IN A SURGE OF MOISTURE OFF OF
THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN AT
LEAST SCATTERED COVERAGE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED AT INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN A SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KGNV. STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND COULD RESULT IN MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING. KGNV COULD SEE STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS
WEEK...LEADING TO A PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
INTO MID WEEK...WHICH WILL DECREASE WINDS AND WAVES.

RIP CURRENTS: HIGH RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MODERATE RISK
FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  70  89  69  88 /  20  60  40  40
SSI  75  84  74  83 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  71  88  69  87 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  75  86  73  84 /  10  10  10   0
GNV  70  91  68  90 /  10  40  10  10
OCF  71  92  69  91 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-ST. JOHNS.

GA...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHULER/



000
FXUS62 KMFL 251906
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
306 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. IF THE WINDS WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY,
THE RISK MAY REDUCE SOME, BUT RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR CONVECTION, THE SURFACE HIGH DOES LOOK TO STRENGTHEN SOME
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A 500MB HIGH ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. ALSO, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK ITS WAY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ALSO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ANY OF THEM
COULD TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN, AND BY FRIDAY, ENOUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK IN
TO BRING POPS BACK UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. GIVEN THE
CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR OVER TO THE GULF COAST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOME INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE AREAS THAT MAY SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST ARE COMING TO AN END
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY
AFFECT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, KEEPING THE
EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
MAY KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,AND THEN
INCREASE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  77  87 /  40  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  88  77  86 /  30  20  10  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  92 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 251906
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
306 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. IF THE WINDS WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY,
THE RISK MAY REDUCE SOME, BUT RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR CONVECTION, THE SURFACE HIGH DOES LOOK TO STRENGTHEN SOME
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A 500MB HIGH ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. ALSO, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK ITS WAY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ALSO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ANY OF THEM
COULD TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN, AND BY FRIDAY, ENOUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK IN
TO BRING POPS BACK UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. GIVEN THE
CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR OVER TO THE GULF COAST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOME INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE AREAS THAT MAY SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST ARE COMING TO AN END
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY
AFFECT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, KEEPING THE
EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
MAY KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,AND THEN
INCREASE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  77  87 /  40  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  88  77  86 /  30  20  10  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  92 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251859
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 251858
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251858
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251858
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251858
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI




000
FXUS62 KMLB 251858
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KMLB 251858
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...PREVIOUS EXTENDED DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...DRIER AIRMASS HAS BEEN SUCCESSFUL THIS
AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE HAS  REMAINED ISOLATED ALONG THE DIFFUSE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BEST CONVERGENCE HAS MORE
OR LESS ALREADY PUSHED WEST OF THE AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS NEAR KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE DIFFUSE NATURE OF THE SEA BREEZE SUPPRESSION BEHIND IT IS
MINIMAL. A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY REACH THE COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE TO BE
LOWER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS MILD WITH MID-
UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS AND LOW-MID
70S ELSEWHERE.

TUESDAY...ANOTHER DAY...MORE DEEP AND DRY EASTERLY FLOW. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS...SO EXPECT MORNING
ATLANTIC SHOWERS TO BE LIMITED. COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON WITH A DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE...PERHAPS
BECOMING WIDELY SCATTERED AS ACTIVITY REACHES THE KISSIMMEE RIVER
AND LAKE COUNTY. WON`T RULE OUT A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITH
ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY
WEST OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON AS WITH THE PAST FEW DAYS.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW 90S INLAND.

TUE NIGHT-THU NIGHT...AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION AND MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO
BREEZY ONSHORE LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS TAP
INTO DRIER MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. MAINTAINED DRY
CONDITIONS WED-THU AS PW VALUES CONTINUE TO DECREASE. WHILE A FEW
ONSHORE MOVING LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT HOURS
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...POPS REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP
OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS MORE MILD ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S-LOW 90S
INTERIOR. MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

FRI-MON...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE REGION CONTINUING
AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH POPS INCREASING CLOSER TO NORMAL...UP
TO 30-40 PERCENT DURING THE WEEKEND. NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL AND OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WEST OF KLEE-KORL-KMCO-KISM PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AFTER 20Z. ISOLD ATLC SHRA AFFECTING
COASTAL SITES SOUTH OF KTIX THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER COVERAGE
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS. TEMPO MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY SHOWERS
AND ALONG COAST. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KTS CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ALONG COAST.

DRIER AIR LEADS TO LOWER COVERAGE ON TUES. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH
ISOLD SHRA TRANSLATING INLAND AFTER 15Z...POSSIBLY FOR STORM OR TWO
NEAR KMCO/KLEE...BEFORE MOST CONVECTION SHIFTS WEST OF AREA AFTER
20Z.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-TUESDAY...LOCAL ATLANTIC REMAINS CHOPPY AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN STEADY NEAR 15KTS...OCCASIONALLY 15-20KTS AT
TIMES. SEAS CONTINUING 3-5 FEET OVER MOST OF THE WATERS WITH UP TO 6
FEET AT TIMES IN THE GULF STREAM.

POOR CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATION WILL CONTINUE.  EXERCISE
CAUTION STATEMENTS REMAIN NECESSARY ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF STREAM.

WED-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN A MODERATE ONSHORE BREEZE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH WIND
SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AT TIMES
OFFSHORE. SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-5FT RANGE.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD WARM LOWS FOR TODAY/TOMORROW.

LOC  DATE   HI-MIN
DAB 25-MAY  75 1991
MCO 25-MAY  74 2014
MLB 25-MAY  76 1991
VRB 25-MAY  77 1991

DAB 26-MAY  73 1991
MCO 26-MAY  74 1943
MLB 26-MAY  78 2014
VRB 26-MAY  76 1991

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  86  73  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  73  91  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
MLB  78  88  75  84 /  20  20  10  10
VRB  75  87  74  85 /  20  20  10  10
LEE  75  92  71  90 /  10  20  10  10
SFB  73  91  70  88 /  10  20  10  10
ORL  73  90  71  89 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX....CRISTALDI



000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 251855
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
255 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE VIEW FROM SPACE THIS AFTERNOON USING WATER VAPOR IMAGES WE CAN
SEE THE DRY AIR INFILTRATING THE AREA FROM THE EAST...OVER THE UPPER
KEYS. THE RADAR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
KEYS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING A
FEW CLOUD STREETS ACROSS THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF COVERAGE OR PRODUCTION OF SHOWERS. WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KNOTS AT THE
C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE REEF AND SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...WITH LONG KEY
STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MAINLAND THERMAL TROUGH AND SHOWING
15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE ISLAND TERMINALS ARE NEAR 15 KNOTS...AND ALL
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.

.FORECAST...
HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH
DIME POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIR MOVING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUBDUE DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES AND SHOWERS.
THE RIDGE PARKED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND STRETCHING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIGNER IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND AN UPPER LOW FROM THE EAST
COMBINE TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS WILL DECREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
STRAITS. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BUT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE ENVIRONMENT BY MONDAY THAT EPISODIC SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY BEGINNING MONDAY. THERE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE HAVE PROMPTED A LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL KEYS WATERS FOR EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD BE PEAKING OVERNIGHT AND
IN THE MORNING...THEN VERY SLOWLY RELAX THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE REASON FOR THE FRESH BREEZES IS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BE PUSHED OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY...WITH THE GRADIENT WINDS...JUST AS
SLOWLY...RELAXING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
FAST-PACED ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UPSTREAM OF THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS STILL POSE A THREAT FOR BRIEF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS TO EITHER TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PUT A
TEMPO FOR TSTMS AT MARATHON IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF STORMS ON RADAR. OTHERWISE...HAVE VCSH AT BOTH
LOCATIONS INTO EARLY EVENING...AND THEN VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
EASTERLY SURFACE BREEZES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS WILL FREQUENTLY
GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1985...3.34 INCHES OF RAIN
WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR MAY
25 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  88  81  88 / 20 10 10 10
MARATHON  81  91  81  91 / 20 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 251754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST ARE COMING TO AN END
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY
AFFECT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
SMALL, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
MOVING ONSHORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, THEN MOSTLY PUSH TO THE INTERIOR AREAS, AND WEST, AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND MID DAY. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES TODAY, THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME LARGER AND A FEW MAY
TURN INTO THUNDERSTORM SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
BRISK EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND MAY GET
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE STORMS COULD GET IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER ACROSS MOST
OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DRIVE THE PATTERN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. AFTER TODAY, PWATS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, NOT REBOUNDING UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. LOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HIGHER FREEZING LEVEL,
SMALLER PWATS AND A WEAKER GULF BREEZE, LIKELY LED TO LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY WITH WEAKER STORMS OVERALL. THAT
TREND MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE TODAY IF A SIMILAR AIR MASS IS
OBSERVED, AS EXPECTED, WITH THE 12Z RAOB. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL AGAIN GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND THE RIP CURRENT HIGH RISK STATEMENT CONTINUES.

THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS RATHER TRANQUIL, WITH POPS NO GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT MAINLY ON THE WEST COAST. WINDS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS WEAKEN INTO FRIDAY, AS HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY AND THE RIDGE
COMPLEX ERODES AND MOVES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND
DIRECTION WILL NOT BE FROM THE EAST THROUGH H5 THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. ON SATURDAY, A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH
FROM CUBA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. H5 WINDS FROM THE S AND SSE
WILL RESULT, TRANSPORTING DEEPER 500MB MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THUS, MORE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS MOVING CLOSER
TO 1.75". A NEW UPPER TROUGH MAY ENTER THE GULF COAST STATES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

MARINE...

SURFACE EASTERLIES REIGN THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE CLOSE TO 20
KTS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. AS USUAL, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE WIND
SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST, SO WILL
INCREASE MODEL OUTPUT BY AT LEAST A FEW KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  76 /  30  30  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  78 /  30  20  10  10
MIAMI            89  78  88  76 /  30  20  10  10
NAPLES           92  73  93  71 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 251754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST ARE COMING TO AN END
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY
AFFECT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
SMALL, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
MOVING ONSHORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, THEN MOSTLY PUSH TO THE INTERIOR AREAS, AND WEST, AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND MID DAY. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES TODAY, THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME LARGER AND A FEW MAY
TURN INTO THUNDERSTORM SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
BRISK EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND MAY GET
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE STORMS COULD GET IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER ACROSS MOST
OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DRIVE THE PATTERN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. AFTER TODAY, PWATS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, NOT REBOUNDING UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. LOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HIGHER FREEZING LEVEL,
SMALLER PWATS AND A WEAKER GULF BREEZE, LIKELY LED TO LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY WITH WEAKER STORMS OVERALL. THAT
TREND MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE TODAY IF A SIMILAR AIR MASS IS
OBSERVED, AS EXPECTED, WITH THE 12Z RAOB. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL AGAIN GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND THE RIP CURRENT HIGH RISK STATEMENT CONTINUES.

THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS RATHER TRANQUIL, WITH POPS NO GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT MAINLY ON THE WEST COAST. WINDS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS WEAKEN INTO FRIDAY, AS HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY AND THE RIDGE
COMPLEX ERODES AND MOVES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND
DIRECTION WILL NOT BE FROM THE EAST THROUGH H5 THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. ON SATURDAY, A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH
FROM CUBA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. H5 WINDS FROM THE S AND SSE
WILL RESULT, TRANSPORTING DEEPER 500MB MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THUS, MORE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS MOVING CLOSER
TO 1.75". A NEW UPPER TROUGH MAY ENTER THE GULF COAST STATES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

MARINE...

SURFACE EASTERLIES REIGN THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE CLOSE TO 20
KTS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. AS USUAL, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE WIND
SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST, SO WILL
INCREASE MODEL OUTPUT BY AT LEAST A FEW KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  76 /  30  30  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  78 /  30  20  10  10
MIAMI            89  78  88  76 /  30  20  10  10
NAPLES           92  73  93  71 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 251754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST ARE COMING TO AN END
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY
AFFECT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
SMALL, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
MOVING ONSHORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, THEN MOSTLY PUSH TO THE INTERIOR AREAS, AND WEST, AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND MID DAY. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES TODAY, THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME LARGER AND A FEW MAY
TURN INTO THUNDERSTORM SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
BRISK EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND MAY GET
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE STORMS COULD GET IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER ACROSS MOST
OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DRIVE THE PATTERN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. AFTER TODAY, PWATS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, NOT REBOUNDING UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. LOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HIGHER FREEZING LEVEL,
SMALLER PWATS AND A WEAKER GULF BREEZE, LIKELY LED TO LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY WITH WEAKER STORMS OVERALL. THAT
TREND MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE TODAY IF A SIMILAR AIR MASS IS
OBSERVED, AS EXPECTED, WITH THE 12Z RAOB. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL AGAIN GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND THE RIP CURRENT HIGH RISK STATEMENT CONTINUES.

THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS RATHER TRANQUIL, WITH POPS NO GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT MAINLY ON THE WEST COAST. WINDS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS WEAKEN INTO FRIDAY, AS HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY AND THE RIDGE
COMPLEX ERODES AND MOVES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND
DIRECTION WILL NOT BE FROM THE EAST THROUGH H5 THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. ON SATURDAY, A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH
FROM CUBA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. H5 WINDS FROM THE S AND SSE
WILL RESULT, TRANSPORTING DEEPER 500MB MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THUS, MORE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS MOVING CLOSER
TO 1.75". A NEW UPPER TROUGH MAY ENTER THE GULF COAST STATES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

MARINE...

SURFACE EASTERLIES REIGN THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE CLOSE TO 20
KTS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. AS USUAL, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE WIND
SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST, SO WILL
INCREASE MODEL OUTPUT BY AT LEAST A FEW KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  76 /  30  30  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  78 /  30  20  10  10
MIAMI            89  78  88  76 /  30  20  10  10
NAPLES           92  73  93  71 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 251754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST ARE COMING TO AN END
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY
AFFECT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1043 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
SMALL, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORMING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
MOVING ONSHORE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, THEN MOSTLY PUSH TO THE INTERIOR AREAS, AND WEST, AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AROUND MID DAY. AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES TODAY, THE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME LARGER AND A FEW MAY
TURN INTO THUNDERSTORM SOMETIME EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD MAINLY OCCUR WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA METRO AREAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

AVIATION...
BRISK EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND MAY GET
NEAR 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES...MAINLY THIS MORNING. FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A COUPLE STORMS COULD GET IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR HIGHER ACROSS MOST
OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DRIVE THE PATTERN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. AFTER TODAY, PWATS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, NOT REBOUNDING UNTIL FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ONCE AGAIN,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALONG THE
EAST COAST. LOWER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HIGHER FREEZING LEVEL,
SMALLER PWATS AND A WEAKER GULF BREEZE, LIKELY LED TO LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY YESTERDAY WITH WEAKER STORMS OVERALL. THAT
TREND MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE TODAY IF A SIMILAR AIR MASS IS
OBSERVED, AS EXPECTED, WITH THE 12Z RAOB. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL AGAIN GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND THE RIP CURRENT HIGH RISK STATEMENT CONTINUES.

THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS RATHER TRANQUIL, WITH POPS NO GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT MAINLY ON THE WEST COAST. WINDS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. DEWPOINTS MAY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION BY THURSDAY. EASTERLY
WINDS WEAKEN INTO FRIDAY, AS HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY AND THE RIDGE
COMPLEX ERODES AND MOVES TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WIND
DIRECTION WILL NOT BE FROM THE EAST THROUGH H5 THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. ON SATURDAY, A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH
FROM CUBA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST. H5 WINDS FROM THE S AND SSE
WILL RESULT, TRANSPORTING DEEPER 500MB MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THUS, MORE NUMEROUS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH PWATS MOVING CLOSER
TO 1.75". A NEW UPPER TROUGH MAY ENTER THE GULF COAST STATES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

MARINE...

SURFACE EASTERLIES REIGN THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WIND SPEEDS MAY BE CLOSE TO 20
KTS AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. AS USUAL, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE WIND
SPEEDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST, SO WILL
INCREASE MODEL OUTPUT BY AT LEAST A FEW KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  76 /  30  30  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  78 /  30  20  10  10
MIAMI            89  78  88  76 /  30  20  10  10
NAPLES           92  73  93  71 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK



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