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000
FXUS62 KJAX 310139
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WIND DOWN ACROSS THE LAND
AREAS OF NE FL DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SE FLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE TOWARDS THE
COAST AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. THE GROUNDS ARE MORE THAN SATURATED
FROM HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE WERE DOPPLER ESTIMATES
OF 7 INCHES JUST NE OF GAINESVILLE TODAY ALONE AND 6 TO 7 INCHES
JUST EAST OF LAKE GENEVA. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
SO WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY WINDED DOWN THIS EVE BUT VCSH
IS POSSIBLE AT MOST NE FL TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 04Z. OTHERWISE
PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY MON AM.

&&

.MARINE...DATA BUOY OBS INDICATE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH CONDITIONS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING OFFSHORE AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR SHORE WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THESE LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOUT ONE
HALF FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOOD STATUS AT HIGH TIDE CYCLES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO NO STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. INITIAL
CONCERNS ARE ALONG FAST RISING TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FORKS OF BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA FE BASIN IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVER BORDERING WESTERN MARION COUNTY LATER THIS WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  72  91 /  30  50  10  30
SSI  76  85  75  88 /  60  60  40  30
JAX  75  88  75  89 /  60  60  30  50
SGJ  75  85  77  87 /  70  70  40  60
GNV  73  87  75  89 /  60  70  20  70
OCF  74  87  74  89 /  60  70  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-INLAND DUVAL-
     INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-PIERCE-
     WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PP/AE/JC




000
FXUS62 KJAX 310139
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
939 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WIND DOWN ACROSS THE LAND
AREAS OF NE FL DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SE FLOW. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE TOWARDS THE
COAST AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. THE GROUNDS ARE MORE THAN SATURATED
FROM HEAVY RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE WERE DOPPLER ESTIMATES
OF 7 INCHES JUST NE OF GAINESVILLE TODAY ALONE AND 6 TO 7 INCHES
JUST EAST OF LAKE GENEVA. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY
SO WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY WINDED DOWN THIS EVE BUT VCSH
IS POSSIBLE AT MOST NE FL TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND 04Z. OTHERWISE
PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE EARLY MON AM.

&&

.MARINE...DATA BUOY OBS INDICATE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH CONDITIONS
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFFSHORE. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOING OFFSHORE AND AN EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR SHORE WINDS
AND SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THESE LEVELS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOUT ONE
HALF FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOOD STATUS AT HIGH TIDE CYCLES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO NO STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. INITIAL
CONCERNS ARE ALONG FAST RISING TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FORKS OF BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA FE BASIN IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVER BORDERING WESTERN MARION COUNTY LATER THIS WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  72  91 /  30  50  10  30
SSI  76  85  75  88 /  60  60  40  30
JAX  75  88  75  89 /  60  60  30  50
SGJ  75  85  77  87 /  70  70  40  60
GNV  73  87  75  89 /  60  70  20  70
OCF  74  87  74  89 /  60  70  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-INLAND DUVAL-
     INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-PIERCE-
     WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

PP/AE/JC


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000
FXUS62 KTBW 310137 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY...

.UPDATE...
A LATE START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IS NOW
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. CLOUD COVER HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING AS QUICKLY WHICH HELPED DELAY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION.
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
CONTINUE TO BE DRIVERS BEHIND THE CONVECTION. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS. MID-LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS ALSO HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL THREAT. THE FLOOD WATCH GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT
CONTINUES TO CAPTURE A LARGE AMOUNT OF THE THREAT THROUGH
MONDAY...WILL ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR OR BETTER...THOUGH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVY RAIN DURING STORMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TO
VFR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINS COMING
ASHORE IN THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS ISSUANCE. REMNANTS OF
ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE GULF THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES. MARINERS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS IT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  77  90 /  50  50  40  60
FMY  75  88  76  91 /  50  60  30  60
GIF  75  88  75  91 /  50  60  30  70
SRQ  75  87  77  90 /  50  60  40  60
BKV  74  88  74  90 /  50  60  30  60
SPG  77  88  78  90 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...63/JILLSON
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR/HYDROLOGY...11/MCKAUGHAN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 310137 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY...

.UPDATE...
A LATE START TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING IS NOW
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND LIGHTNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TAMPA BAY AREA. CLOUD COVER HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
RISING AS QUICKLY WHICH HELPED DELAY THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION.
HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST OBSERVED AND MODEL
TRENDS.

THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
CONTINUE TO BE DRIVERS BEHIND THE CONVECTION. MAIN CONCERN REMAINS
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER ALREADY SATURATED AREAS. MID-LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING ALONG WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA IS ALSO HELPING TO
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL THREAT. THE FLOOD WATCH GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT
CONTINUES TO CAPTURE A LARGE AMOUNT OF THE THREAT THROUGH
MONDAY...WILL ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR OR BETTER...THOUGH BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR/LIFR POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVY RAIN DURING STORMS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TO
VFR BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINS COMING
ASHORE IN THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS ISSUANCE. REMNANTS OF
ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE GULF THROUGH
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES. MARINERS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS IT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  77  90 /  50  50  40  60
FMY  75  88  76  91 /  50  60  30  60
GIF  75  88  75  91 /  50  60  30  70
SRQ  75  87  77  90 /  50  60  40  60
BKV  74  88  74  90 /  50  60  30  60
SPG  77  88  78  90 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...63/JILLSON
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR/HYDROLOGY...11/MCKAUGHAN


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KTAE 310128
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Most of the convection today was east and south of the forecast
area as an upper level low lifting northward brought some drier
mid and upper level air into the area. Expect a similar trend
tonight with mainly dry conditions except for a slight chance of
convection across the eastern fringe. Overnight lows will mainly
range from around 70 to the mid 70s across the region.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Tuesday] Some MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
late tonight with brief low cigs and/or a bit of patchy fog for a
few hours. Most of the convection that develops on Monday is
expected to be east and south of the TAF sites.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A weak trough aloft over the western Gulf and ridge near Bermuda
will keep south-southwesterly deep layer flow, which will
stretch and steer moisture from the remnants of Erika through
Tuesday night. The weak area of low pressure is very disorganized
and, in an unfavorable environment aloft, unlikely to redevelop,
though we will likely see some showers and thunderstorms from it
over the eastern third of our area. Most of this moisture will be
focused over the Florida Peninsula, keeping the highest rainfall
totals to our east. Locally, the highest rainfall is expected in
the southeast Big Bend with totals around 1-2" expected and
isolated totals around 3-5" possible. Since we`ve dried out over
the past few weeks, the area should be able to handle these
totals, although ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage
areas may occur. The western portions of our forecast area will
see more isolated convection and highs rising into the low 90s and
overnight lows in the low 70s. Over the portions of the area more
likely to see effects from the remnants of Erika, temperatures
will struggle to try to reach 90 and lows will dip into the low-
mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The weak trough aloft will shift eastward slowly toward the
central Gulf, pushing the upper level ridge eastward as well.
This very slight pattern shift will allow mid-upper layer flow
from the south to continue, keeping the area warm and moist. This
continued presence of moisture will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the 20-40% range through the long term period,
with the highest chances over the eastern Big Bend and south
central Georgia, where low level flow from the east is expected to
bring some late season east coast sea-breeze storms in over the
late afternoon/evening hours.


.Marine...

Winds will remain 10 knots or less and waves around 2 feet or
less outside of thunderstorms through the weekend.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals over the next 5 days may be up around 2-3" in the
southeast Big Bend with isolated areas receiving higher totals.
This is not expected to cause significant rises along our area
rivers, which are currently at normal levels, although it may
cause isolated pockets of flooding, especially low lying areas
with poor drainage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  92  73  92  75 /  10  30  10  30  20
Panama City   75  88  75  89  76 /  10  20  10  20  20
Dothan        70  91  72  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        72  90  72  91  74 /  10  30  10  20  10
Valdosta      72  89  72  90  73 /  40  40  10  40  20
Cross City    74  89  75  89  75 /  50  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  75  90  75  90  77 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 310128
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Most of the convection today was east and south of the forecast
area as an upper level low lifting northward brought some drier
mid and upper level air into the area. Expect a similar trend
tonight with mainly dry conditions except for a slight chance of
convection across the eastern fringe. Overnight lows will mainly
range from around 70 to the mid 70s across the region.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Tuesday] Some MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
late tonight with brief low cigs and/or a bit of patchy fog for a
few hours. Most of the convection that develops on Monday is
expected to be east and south of the TAF sites.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A weak trough aloft over the western Gulf and ridge near Bermuda
will keep south-southwesterly deep layer flow, which will
stretch and steer moisture from the remnants of Erika through
Tuesday night. The weak area of low pressure is very disorganized
and, in an unfavorable environment aloft, unlikely to redevelop,
though we will likely see some showers and thunderstorms from it
over the eastern third of our area. Most of this moisture will be
focused over the Florida Peninsula, keeping the highest rainfall
totals to our east. Locally, the highest rainfall is expected in
the southeast Big Bend with totals around 1-2" expected and
isolated totals around 3-5" possible. Since we`ve dried out over
the past few weeks, the area should be able to handle these
totals, although ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage
areas may occur. The western portions of our forecast area will
see more isolated convection and highs rising into the low 90s and
overnight lows in the low 70s. Over the portions of the area more
likely to see effects from the remnants of Erika, temperatures
will struggle to try to reach 90 and lows will dip into the low-
mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The weak trough aloft will shift eastward slowly toward the
central Gulf, pushing the upper level ridge eastward as well.
This very slight pattern shift will allow mid-upper layer flow
from the south to continue, keeping the area warm and moist. This
continued presence of moisture will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the 20-40% range through the long term period,
with the highest chances over the eastern Big Bend and south
central Georgia, where low level flow from the east is expected to
bring some late season east coast sea-breeze storms in over the
late afternoon/evening hours.


.Marine...

Winds will remain 10 knots or less and waves around 2 feet or
less outside of thunderstorms through the weekend.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals over the next 5 days may be up around 2-3" in the
southeast Big Bend with isolated areas receiving higher totals.
This is not expected to cause significant rises along our area
rivers, which are currently at normal levels, although it may
cause isolated pockets of flooding, especially low lying areas
with poor drainage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  92  73  92  75 /  10  30  10  30  20
Panama City   75  88  75  89  76 /  10  20  10  20  20
Dothan        70  91  72  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        72  90  72  91  74 /  10  30  10  20  10
Valdosta      72  89  72  90  73 /  40  40  10  40  20
Cross City    74  89  75  89  75 /  50  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  75  90  75  90  77 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



  [top]

000
FXUS62 KKEY 310050
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
850 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/RAIN HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS IN AND AROUND THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND MOST
NOTICEABLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE KEYS SERVICE AREA AND
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS REMAIN...WINDS ARE TAPERING
OFF ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE ELONGATED TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED JUST
TO THE WEST OF OUR GULF WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE LOCAL LATE EVENING SOUNDING INDICATES A VERY MOIST AIRMASS. NO
SURPRISE THERE. THE WINDS ARE MODERATE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
LOWEST 3000 FEET...THEN SLACKEN AND BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MID LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE. BASED MOSTLY ON RECENT RADAR
TRENDS...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TO TRIM OUR
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE KEYS OVERNIGHT. ALSO REMOVED
THE BREEZY DESCRIPTOR...AND TRIMMED THE EXPECTED WINDS BACK TO 10 TO
15 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...
AS WITH THE ZONES...THE UPCOMING COASTAL WATERS FORECAST WILL HAVE
WIND SPEEDS TRIMMED BACK SEVERAL KNOTS IN EACH MARINE ZONE. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REMOVED FROM EACH ZONE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/RAIN WILL BE CUT BACK TO SCATTERED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LIGHTER BREEZES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MARINE
SERVICE AREA ON MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PASSING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD CAUSE BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION OF SHOWERS OR STORMS IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TERMINAL FORECAST. WILL HOLD ONTO
VICINITY SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 310037
AFDMLB

- KMIA 302346
WRKSTF

ZCZC MIAWRKSTF 302344
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
835 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

OVERNIGHT UPDATE...THE DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COVERING THE ENTIRE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS THIS
EVENING. THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOP WAS SHOWING A SLOW DECREASING TREND
IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER POP
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE UPDATE. COVERAGE DOES DECREASE ENOUGH
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MAINLAND FLORIDA AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
LITTLE TO LOWER THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
THE GULF STREAM COVERING MORE THAN THAN HALF OF THE AREA THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS.

OTHER THAN AMENDMENTS TO THE WINDS THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AS
INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER INTO EVENING AGAIN...THEN EXPECT
LOWERING CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POORLY
DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.

MON...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN...SO DO NOT EXPECT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...NOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TO BE NEARLY AS BIG A FACTOR EITHER. STILL WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
IN PLACE...POPS WILL BE HIGH. THE LATEST POPS ARE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...70 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT CHANGE. THE SOUTHERLY
WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIKELY FOCUS STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE...THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWS SLOW MOVING INVERTED TROUGH OUT
IN THE EASTERN GULF.  THE DEEP MOISTURE BAND ALONG IT IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT WEST OF OUR AREA AS THE MODEL ADVECTS SOME DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE EAST.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST...SO EVEN THOUGH
THE GFS SHOWS POPS LOWERING TO 20-40 PERCENT...WILL GO ABOUT 20
PERCENT ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR NOW AND STAY SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  STORM CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE FOCUSED MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FL AND S
GA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL DAMPENS AND ABSORBED. A GENERAL SE-S
LOW-LVL FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SFC RIDGE SITUATED TO
THE N. ENVIRONMENT LOOKING TO RETURN TO RELATIVE CLIMO.
&&

.AVIATION...

RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING VCTS WITH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY KSFB-
KISM WEST TO KLEE THROUGH MIDNIGHT(31/04Z) THEN VCSH VFR TO 31/15Z.
31/15Z TO 01/00Z VCTS WITH TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY ALL SITES.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS OCCASIONALLY WITH IFR HAVE SHIFTED INLAND
FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT POSSIBLY KTIX-KDAB. STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS KMLB-KSUA THROUGH SUNSET. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONFINE STORMS TO THE ATLANTIC...BUT HIGH
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER LAND. ON
MON...IT WILL REMAIN MOIST BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN THE
AREA TO MORE OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN WITH IFR SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOY REPORTS INDICATING SEAS HAVE BEEN 6 TO 7
FEET WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS SO FAR THIS EVENING. THE SWELL
COMPONENT OF AROUND 4 FEET WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD KEEP
COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 7 FOOT RANGE OFFSHORE AND IN THE
NEARSHORE/GULF STREAM SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 4AM.

PREVIOUS

TONIGHT-MON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EASE AS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHES AWAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSES BACK INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING
THOUGH...AS THE GFS KEEPS SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS. WINDS ON MON LOOK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXPECT PLENTY OF NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO MON ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPE NORTH.

TUE-THU...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE N WILL SUPPORT SE-S
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS (EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT ON
TUE OFFSHORE). MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERO BEACH HAS ALREADY BROKEN
RAINFALL RECORD FOR THIS DATE WITH 2.58" SO FAR...OLD RECORD WAS
2.02" IN 1981.

A HYDROLOGIC (RIVER) STATEMENT (RVSMLB) WAS ISSUED FOR SHINGLE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1)...WHICH WENT ABOVE ACTION STAGE LATE AFTERNOON.
IF RAINFALL IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH OVER THE BASIN...THEN FLOOD STAGE
COULD BE REACHED IN THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  74  90 /  60  70  30  50
MCO  75  89  75  91 /  60  70  30  60
MLB  76  89  77  90 /  60  70  30  40
VRB  74  89  75  90 /  70  70  30  40
LEE  76  89  76  91 /  60  70  30  60
SFB  75  89  76  92 /  60  70  30  60
ORL  75  89  76  92 /  60  70  30  60
FPR  75  90  74  91 /  70  70  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-
     60 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
HYDRO.......GLITTO
UPDATES.....WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 310037
AFDMLB

- KMIA 302346
WRKSTF

ZCZC MIAWRKSTF 302344
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
835 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

OVERNIGHT UPDATE...THE DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COVERING THE ENTIRE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS THIS
EVENING. THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOP WAS SHOWING A SLOW DECREASING TREND
IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER POP
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE UPDATE. COVERAGE DOES DECREASE ENOUGH
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MAINLAND FLORIDA AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
LITTLE TO LOWER THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
THE GULF STREAM COVERING MORE THAN THAN HALF OF THE AREA THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS.

OTHER THAN AMENDMENTS TO THE WINDS THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AS
INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER INTO EVENING AGAIN...THEN EXPECT
LOWERING CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POORLY
DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.

MON...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN...SO DO NOT EXPECT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...NOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TO BE NEARLY AS BIG A FACTOR EITHER. STILL WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
IN PLACE...POPS WILL BE HIGH. THE LATEST POPS ARE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...70 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT CHANGE. THE SOUTHERLY
WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIKELY FOCUS STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE...THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWS SLOW MOVING INVERTED TROUGH OUT
IN THE EASTERN GULF.  THE DEEP MOISTURE BAND ALONG IT IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT WEST OF OUR AREA AS THE MODEL ADVECTS SOME DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE EAST.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST...SO EVEN THOUGH
THE GFS SHOWS POPS LOWERING TO 20-40 PERCENT...WILL GO ABOUT 20
PERCENT ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR NOW AND STAY SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  STORM CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE FOCUSED MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FL AND S
GA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL DAMPENS AND ABSORBED. A GENERAL SE-S
LOW-LVL FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SFC RIDGE SITUATED TO
THE N. ENVIRONMENT LOOKING TO RETURN TO RELATIVE CLIMO.
&&

.AVIATION...

RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING VCTS WITH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY KSFB-
KISM WEST TO KLEE THROUGH MIDNIGHT(31/04Z) THEN VCSH VFR TO 31/15Z.
31/15Z TO 01/00Z VCTS WITH TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY ALL SITES.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS OCCASIONALLY WITH IFR HAVE SHIFTED INLAND
FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT POSSIBLY KTIX-KDAB. STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS KMLB-KSUA THROUGH SUNSET. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONFINE STORMS TO THE ATLANTIC...BUT HIGH
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER LAND. ON
MON...IT WILL REMAIN MOIST BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN THE
AREA TO MORE OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN WITH IFR SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOY REPORTS INDICATING SEAS HAVE BEEN 6 TO 7
FEET WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS SO FAR THIS EVENING. THE SWELL
COMPONENT OF AROUND 4 FEET WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD KEEP
COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 7 FOOT RANGE OFFSHORE AND IN THE
NEARSHORE/GULF STREAM SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 4AM.

PREVIOUS

TONIGHT-MON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EASE AS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHES AWAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSES BACK INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING
THOUGH...AS THE GFS KEEPS SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS. WINDS ON MON LOOK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXPECT PLENTY OF NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO MON ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPE NORTH.

TUE-THU...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE N WILL SUPPORT SE-S
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS (EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT ON
TUE OFFSHORE). MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERO BEACH HAS ALREADY BROKEN
RAINFALL RECORD FOR THIS DATE WITH 2.58" SO FAR...OLD RECORD WAS
2.02" IN 1981.

A HYDROLOGIC (RIVER) STATEMENT (RVSMLB) WAS ISSUED FOR SHINGLE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1)...WHICH WENT ABOVE ACTION STAGE LATE AFTERNOON.
IF RAINFALL IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH OVER THE BASIN...THEN FLOOD STAGE
COULD BE REACHED IN THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  74  90 /  60  70  30  50
MCO  75  89  75  91 /  60  70  30  60
MLB  76  89  77  90 /  60  70  30  40
VRB  74  89  75  90 /  70  70  30  40
LEE  76  89  76  91 /  60  70  30  60
SFB  75  89  76  92 /  60  70  30  60
ORL  75  89  76  92 /  60  70  30  60
FPR  75  90  74  91 /  70  70  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-
     60 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
HYDRO.......GLITTO
UPDATES.....WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 310037
AFDMLB

- KMIA 302346
WRKSTF

ZCZC MIAWRKSTF 302344
TTAA00 KMIA DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
835 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

OVERNIGHT UPDATE...THE DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE COVERING THE ENTIRE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS THIS
EVENING. THE RADAR MOSAIC LOOP WAS SHOWING A SLOW DECREASING TREND
IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO LOWER POP
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE UPDATE. COVERAGE DOES DECREASE ENOUGH
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON MAINLAND FLORIDA AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES A
LITTLE TO LOWER THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH
THE GULF STREAM COVERING MORE THAN THAN HALF OF THE AREA THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS.

OTHER THAN AMENDMENTS TO THE WINDS THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

PREVIOUS ZONES DISCUSSION

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AS
INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER INTO EVENING AGAIN...THEN EXPECT
LOWERING CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POORLY
DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.

MON...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN...SO DO NOT EXPECT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...NOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TO BE NEARLY AS BIG A FACTOR EITHER. STILL WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
IN PLACE...POPS WILL BE HIGH. THE LATEST POPS ARE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...70 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT CHANGE. THE SOUTHERLY
WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIKELY FOCUS STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE...THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWS SLOW MOVING INVERTED TROUGH OUT
IN THE EASTERN GULF.  THE DEEP MOISTURE BAND ALONG IT IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT WEST OF OUR AREA AS THE MODEL ADVECTS SOME DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE EAST.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST...SO EVEN THOUGH
THE GFS SHOWS POPS LOWERING TO 20-40 PERCENT...WILL GO ABOUT 20
PERCENT ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR NOW AND STAY SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  STORM CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE FOCUSED MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FL AND S
GA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL DAMPENS AND ABSORBED. A GENERAL SE-S
LOW-LVL FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SFC RIDGE SITUATED TO
THE N. ENVIRONMENT LOOKING TO RETURN TO RELATIVE CLIMO.
&&

.AVIATION...

RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTING VCTS WITH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY KSFB-
KISM WEST TO KLEE THROUGH MIDNIGHT(31/04Z) THEN VCSH VFR TO 31/15Z.
31/15Z TO 01/00Z VCTS WITH TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY ALL SITES.

PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION

BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS OCCASIONALLY WITH IFR HAVE SHIFTED INLAND
FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT POSSIBLY KTIX-KDAB. STILL EXPECT OCCASIONAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS KMLB-KSUA THROUGH SUNSET. LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO
THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONFINE STORMS TO THE ATLANTIC...BUT HIGH
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO LINGER OVER LAND. ON
MON...IT WILL REMAIN MOIST BUT THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN THE
AREA TO MORE OF THE TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN WITH IFR SHOWERS/STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...BUOY REPORTS INDICATING SEAS HAVE BEEN 6 TO 7
FEET WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS SO FAR THIS EVENING. THE SWELL
COMPONENT OF AROUND 4 FEET WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD KEEP
COMBINED SEAS IN THE 6 TO 7 FOOT RANGE OFFSHORE AND IN THE
NEARSHORE/GULF STREAM SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 4AM.

PREVIOUS

TONIGHT-MON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EASE AS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHES AWAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSES BACK INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING
THOUGH...AS THE GFS KEEPS SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS. WINDS ON MON LOOK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXPECT PLENTY OF NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO MON ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPE NORTH.

TUE-THU...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE N WILL SUPPORT SE-S
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS (EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT ON
TUE OFFSHORE). MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERO BEACH HAS ALREADY BROKEN
RAINFALL RECORD FOR THIS DATE WITH 2.58" SO FAR...OLD RECORD WAS
2.02" IN 1981.

A HYDROLOGIC (RIVER) STATEMENT (RVSMLB) WAS ISSUED FOR SHINGLE CREEK
AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1)...WHICH WENT ABOVE ACTION STAGE LATE AFTERNOON.
IF RAINFALL IS PERSISTENT ENOUGH OVER THE BASIN...THEN FLOOD STAGE
COULD BE REACHED IN THE EARLY WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  74  90 /  60  70  30  50
MCO  75  89  75  91 /  60  70  30  60
MLB  76  89  77  90 /  60  70  30  40
VRB  74  89  75  90 /  70  70  30  40
LEE  76  89  76  91 /  60  70  30  60
SFB  75  89  76  92 /  60  70  30  60
ORL  75  89  76  92 /  60  70  30  60
FPR  75  90  74  91 /  70  70  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-
     60 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-

&&

$$

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
HYDRO.......GLITTO
UPDATES.....WIMMER


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMFL 302354
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE TROUGH THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
IS LOCATED OVER FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX TO
LESS THAN 5 MPH OVER THE MAINLAND AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PWAT VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER
THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THE
HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
EAST COAST HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY FOR LAST FEW HOURS...SO REMOVED
TEMPO GROUPS AND CARRIED VCSH THROUGH 15Z...REPLACED BY VCTS
THEREAFTER. AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE VCSH
ALTOGETHER OVER THE OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FOR NAPLES...WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ONGOING...SO PREVAIL TSRA FOR SEVERAL HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY TEMPO GROUP...THEN VCTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS PSBL ALL TERMINALS IN PCPN...BUT MORE EXTENDED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN TS/RA LIKELY IN NAPLES...AT LEAST THROUGH 6Z. SE
WINDS NEAR 5 KT OVNGT...THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY. NAPLES WILL SEE GULF BREEZE FROM SSW DURG AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS
AND BISCAYNE BAY HAVE FALLEN BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BE
BELOW 15 KNOTS IN ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 6 FEET AND
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT WITH THE GULF SEAS REMAIN BELOW
6 FEET.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA.
PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WARRANT CONTINUATION OF HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH FOR MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE OF A SCATTERED RANGE ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE EACH DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL
0Z THIS EVENING.  THE WINDS BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  92 /  30  50  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  91 /  30  50  30  40
MIAMI            78  90  79  92 /  30  60  40  40
NAPLES           77  90  79  91 /  70  60  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KJAX 302040
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
440 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVES OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE N/NE ACROSS GA/AL. INLAND PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY RESTRICTED TO NEAR
THE COAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL
PREVAIL TNGT.

MONDAY...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MIGRATING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS FOR MOST OF NE FL WITH
A BIT LESSER COVERAGE FOR INTERIOR SE GA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER OUR REGION BY LATE MON AS
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF OUR AREA ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DRY FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON EVENING AS THIS
RIDGING BUILDS IN...WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE TROPICAL FEED OF
MOISTURE TEMPORARILY. WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE FOR MON
NIGHT EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH DRYING EXPECTED INLAND. LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUES...WITH A
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION. ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GA...WITH
NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-10. LESS COVERAGE AND MORE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW
INLAND HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-
10...WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...KEEPING THE FLOOD THREAT IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL. A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND TOWARDS THE I-95
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND STORMS INTERACTING WITH
THIS BOUNDARY MAY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-
50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND IN THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
70S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON WED WILL GRADUALLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD LATER THIS  WEEK...WHILE ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. DEEP S-SW FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION WED/THURS DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE UPPER LOW GETS TO OUR REGION...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
CONTINUING WITH REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN THE
12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FL...WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE
THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...SWITCHING OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO E/SE.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY FOCUS ACTIVITY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FRI-SUN...WITH MORNING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ON WED/THURS WILL COOL BACK TO THE UPPER
80S LATE FRI-SUN. HIGHS AT THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
80S WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND EACH DAY. LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN BANDS OF RAIN
FOR SSI/JAX/CRG/VQQ/SGJ THROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH MORE LOCALIZED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT GNV. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT SOME LOW CLOUDS LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL
NOT INCLUDE FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS CLOSE AND SEAS TOUCHING 7 FEET...WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE
OUTER WATERS TNGT. OTHERWISE...CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY UNDER PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE FLOW WILL TILT
MORE TO THE SOUTH FOR MID/LATE WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOUT ONE
HALF FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOOD STATUS AT HIGH TIDE CYCLES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO NO STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. INITIAL
CONCERNS ARE ALONG FAST RISING TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FORKS OF BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA FE BASIN IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVER BORDERING WESTERN MARION COUNTY LATER THIS WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  72  91 /  30  50  10  30
SSI  76  85  75  88 /  60  60  40  30
JAX  75  88  75  89 /  50  60  30  50
SGJ  75  85  77  87 /  70  70  40  60
GNV  73  87  75  89 /  50  70  20  70
OCF  74  87  74  89 /  50  70  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-INLAND DUVAL-
     INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-PIERCE-
     WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 302040
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
440 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FLOOD WATCH POSTED FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR REGION
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAVES OF MODERATE/LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE N/NE ACROSS GA/AL. INLAND PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY RESTRICTED TO NEAR
THE COAST LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL
PREVAIL TNGT.

MONDAY...RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MIGRATING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF...AND AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. WILL USE NUMEROUS POPS FOR MOST OF NE FL WITH
A BIT LESSER COVERAGE FOR INTERIOR SE GA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER OUR REGION BY LATE MON AS
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF OUR AREA ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER MID/UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER
SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
RIDGE ALOFT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MID LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DRY FROM WEST TO EAST ON MON EVENING AS THIS
RIDGING BUILDS IN...WHICH SHOULD SHUT OFF THE TROPICAL FEED OF
MOISTURE TEMPORARILY. WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS IN PLACE FOR MON
NIGHT EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR...WITH DRYING EXPECTED INLAND. LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUES...WITH A
TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION. ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST GA...WITH
NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COVERAGE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-10. LESS COVERAGE AND MORE INSOLATION WILL ALLOW
INLAND HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-
10...WITH UPPER 80S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...KEEPING THE FLOOD THREAT IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL FL. A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND TOWARDS THE I-95
CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND STORMS INTERACTING WITH
THIS BOUNDARY MAY PULSE UP TO STRONG LEVELS...WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 30-
50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH SOME SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND IN THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND MOVES
NORTHWARD INTO THE FL PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
70S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST ON WED WILL GRADUALLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD LATER THIS  WEEK...WHILE ATLANTIC RIDGING REMAINS
IN PLACE OVER THE FL PENINSULA. DEEP S-SW FLOW WILL POTENTIALLY
BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER OUR REGION WED/THURS DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE UPPER LOW GETS TO OUR REGION...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
CONTINUING WITH REGARDS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN THE
12Z OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE
OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST FL...WHERE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH
DAY. SURFACE RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION LATE
THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...SWITCHING OUR LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO E/SE.
THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY FOCUS ACTIVITY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FRI-SUN...WITH MORNING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN COASTAL LOCATIONS.
INLAND HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S ON WED/THURS WILL COOL BACK TO THE UPPER
80S LATE FRI-SUN. HIGHS AT THE COAST WILL REMAIN IN THE MID/UPPER
80S WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHING WELL INLAND EACH DAY. LOWS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR CAN BE EXPECTED IN BANDS OF RAIN
FOR SSI/JAX/CRG/VQQ/SGJ THROUGH THIS AFTN...WITH MORE LOCALIZED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT GNV. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT SOME LOW CLOUDS LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH CONFIDENCE LOW WILL
NOT INCLUDE FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH WINDS CLOSE AND SEAS TOUCHING 7 FEET...WILL ISSUE A SCA FOR THE
OUTER WATERS TNGT. OTHERWISE...CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY UNDER PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE FLOW WILL TILT
MORE TO THE SOUTH FOR MID/LATE WEEK WITH WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH MONDAY WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO REMAIN ABOUT ONE
HALF FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOOD STATUS AT HIGH TIDE CYCLES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO NO STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 3-5 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS EXPECTED IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. INITIAL
CONCERNS ARE ALONG FAST RISING TRIBUTARIES SUCH AS THE NORTH AND
SOUTH FORKS OF BLACK CREEK AND THE UPPER SANTA FE BASIN IN NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE WITHLACOOCHEE
RIVER BORDERING WESTERN MARION COUNTY LATER THIS WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  72  91 /  30  50  10  30
SSI  76  85  75  88 /  60  60  40  30
JAX  75  88  75  89 /  50  60  30  50
SGJ  75  85  77  87 /  70  70  40  60
GNV  73  87  75  89 /  50  70  20  70
OCF  74  87  74  89 /  50  70  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-
     CLAY-COASTAL DUVAL-COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-INLAND DUVAL-
     INLAND NASSAU-MARION-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-UNION.

GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-COASTAL
     CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-PIERCE-
     WAYNE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
     60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
     TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON/COMBS



000
FXUS62 KMLB 301952
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
352 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AS
INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER INTO EVENING AGAIN...THEN EXPECT
LOWERING CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POORLY
DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.

MON...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN...SO DO NOT EXPECT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...NOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TO BE NEARLY AS BIG A FACTOR EITHER. STILL WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
IN PLACE...POPS WILL BE HIGH. THE LATEST POPS ARE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...70 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT CHANGE. THE SOUTHERLY
WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIKELY FOCUS STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE...THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWS SLOW MOVING INVERTED TROUGH OUT
IN THE EASTERN GULF.  THE DEEP MOISTURE BAND ALONG IT IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT WEST OF OUR AREA AS THE MODEL ADVECTS SOME DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE EAST.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST...SO EVEN THOUGH
THE GFS SHOWS POPS LOWERING TO 20-40 PERCENT...WILL GO ABOUT 20
PERCENT ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR NOW AND STAY SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  STORM CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE FOCUSED MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FL AND S
GA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL DAMPENS AND ABSORBED. A GENERAL SE-S
LOW-LVL FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SFC RIDGE SITUATED TO
THE N. ENVIRONMENT LOOKING TO RETURN TO RELATIVE CLIMO.
&&

.AVIATION...BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS OCCASIONALLY WITH IFR HAVE
SHIFTED INLAND FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT POSSIBLY KTIX-KDAB. STILL
EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS KMLB-KSUA THROUGH SUNSET. LOW
LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONFINE STORMS TO
THE ATLANTIC...BUT HIGH MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO LINGER OVER LAND. ON MON...IT WILL REMAIN MOIST BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN THE AREA TO MORE OF THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN WITH IFR SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EASE AS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHES AWAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSES BACK INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING
THOUGH...AS THE GFS KEEPS SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS. WINDS ON MON LOOK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXPECT PLENTY OF NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO MON ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPE NORTH.

TUE-THU...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE N WILL SUPPORT SE-S
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS (EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT ON
TUE OFFSHORE). MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERO BEACH HAS ALREADY BROKEN
RAINFALL RECORD FOR THIS DATE WITH 2.58" SO FAR...OLD RECORD WAS
2.02" IN 1981.

A HYDROLOGIC (RIVER) STATEMENT (RVSMLB) WAS RECENTLY ISSUED FOR
SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1)...WHICH IS WITHIN 0.2 FEET OF
ACTION STAGE AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MOVING OVER BASIN MID AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISE. IF RAINFALL IS PERSISTENT
ENOUGH OVER THE BASIN...THEN FLOOD STAGE COULD BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  74  90 /  60  70  30  50
MCO  75  89  75  91 /  60  70  30  60
MLB  76  89  77  90 /  60  70  30  40
VRB  74  89  75  90 /  70  70  30  40
LEE  76  89  76  91 /  60  70  30  60
SFB  75  89  76  92 /  60  70  30  60
ORL  75  89  76  92 /  60  70  30  60
FPR  75  90  74  91 /  70  70  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-
     60 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX/RADAR/DSS...SEDLOCK/PENDERGRAST/VOLKMER
AVIATION...WIMMER
HYDROLOGY...GLITTO/VOLKMER



000
FXUS62 KMLB 301952
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
352 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTH AS
INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER INTO EVENING AGAIN...THEN EXPECT
LOWERING CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF POORLY
DRAINED AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREA.

MON...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF LOW
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IN THE EASTERN GULF.  WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE COLUMN...SO DO NOT EXPECT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE TO BE AS STRONG AS SUNDAY...NOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
TO BE NEARLY AS BIG A FACTOR EITHER. STILL WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
IN PLACE...POPS WILL BE HIGH. THE LATEST POPS ARE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...70 PERCENT...SO WILL NOT CHANGE. THE SOUTHERLY
WIND TRAJECTORY WILL LIKELY FOCUS STORMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

TUE...THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN SHOWS SLOW MOVING INVERTED TROUGH OUT
IN THE EASTERN GULF.  THE DEEP MOISTURE BAND ALONG IT IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT WEST OF OUR AREA AS THE MODEL ADVECTS SOME DRIER AIR IN FROM
THE EAST.  PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EXIST...SO EVEN THOUGH
THE GFS SHOWS POPS LOWERING TO 20-40 PERCENT...WILL GO ABOUT 20
PERCENT ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR NOW AND STAY SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.  STORM CHANCES SHOULD AGAIN BE FOCUSED MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WED-SAT...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)

LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FL AND S
GA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL DAMPENS AND ABSORBED. A GENERAL SE-S
LOW-LVL FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SFC RIDGE SITUATED TO
THE N. ENVIRONMENT LOOKING TO RETURN TO RELATIVE CLIMO.
&&

.AVIATION...BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS OCCASIONALLY WITH IFR HAVE
SHIFTED INLAND FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT POSSIBLY KTIX-KDAB. STILL
EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR IN SHOWERS KMLB-KSUA THROUGH SUNSET. LOW
LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT SHOULD CONFINE STORMS TO
THE ATLANTIC...BUT HIGH MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
TO LINGER OVER LAND. ON MON...IT WILL REMAIN MOIST BUT THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RETURN THE AREA TO MORE OF THE TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN WITH IFR SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-MON...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EASE AS
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHES AWAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE NOSES BACK INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

WILL NEED TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING
THOUGH...AS THE GFS KEEPS SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS. WINDS ON MON LOOK SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

EXPECT PLENTY OF NIGHTTIME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...WHICH SHOULD LINGER WELL INTO MON ESPECIALLY FROM THE
CAPE NORTH.

TUE-THU...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE N WILL SUPPORT SE-S
WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS (EXCEPT 3 TO 4 FT ON
TUE OFFSHORE). MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER BOATING CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

EVENT RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. VERO BEACH HAS ALREADY BROKEN
RAINFALL RECORD FOR THIS DATE WITH 2.58" SO FAR...OLD RECORD WAS
2.02" IN 1981.

A HYDROLOGIC (RIVER) STATEMENT (RVSMLB) WAS RECENTLY ISSUED FOR
SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1)...WHICH IS WITHIN 0.2 FEET OF
ACTION STAGE AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MOVING OVER BASIN MID AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL RISE. IF RAINFALL IS PERSISTENT
ENOUGH OVER THE BASIN...THEN FLOOD STAGE COULD BE REACHED IN THE
EARLY WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  88  74  90 /  60  70  30  50
MCO  75  89  75  91 /  60  70  30  60
MLB  76  89  77  90 /  60  70  30  40
VRB  74  89  75  90 /  70  70  30  40
LEE  76  89  76  91 /  60  70  30  60
SFB  75  89  76  92 /  60  70  30  60
ORL  75  89  76  92 /  60  70  30  60
FPR  75  90  74  91 /  70  70  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR SEBASTIAN INLET
     TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20-
     60 NM-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20-60 NM-

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX/RADAR/DSS...SEDLOCK/PENDERGRAST/VOLKMER
AVIATION...WIMMER
HYDROLOGY...GLITTO/VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301949
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WARRANT CONTINUATION OF HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH FOR MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE OF A SCATTERED RANGE ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.


.LONG TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE EACH DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL
0Z THIS EVENING.  THE WINDS BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  92 /  70  50  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  91 /  70  50  30  40
MIAMI            78  90  79  92 /  70  60  40  40
NAPLES           77  90  79  91 /  60  60  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 301949
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WARRANT CONTINUATION OF HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH FOR MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE OF A SCATTERED RANGE ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.


.LONG TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE EACH DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL
0Z THIS EVENING.  THE WINDS BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  92 /  70  50  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  91 /  70  50  30  40
MIAMI            78  90  79  92 /  70  60  40  40
NAPLES           77  90  79  91 /  60  60  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KTAE 301944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Upper low will continue to lift northeastward overnight and
gradually weaken. The dry mid/upper level air drawn northward by the
upper low will limit shower activity overnight with the best chances
for rain over the eastern Big Bend counties.


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A weak trough aloft over the western Gulf and ridge near Bermuda
will keep south-southwesterly deep layer flow, which will
stretch and steer moisture from the remnants of Erika through
Tuesday night. The weak area of low pressure is very disorganized
and, in an unfavorable environment aloft, unlikely to redevelop,
though we will likely see some showers and thunderstorms from it
over the eastern third of our area. Most of this moisture will be
focused over the Florida Peninsula, keeping the highest rainfall
totals to our east. Locally, the highest rainfall is expected in
the southeast Big Bend with totals around 1-2" expected and
isolated totals around 3-5" possible. Since we`ve dried out over
the past few weeks, the area should be able to handle these
totals, although ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage
areas may occur. The western portions of our forecast area will
see more isolated convection and highs rising into the low 90s and
overnight lows in the low 70s. Over the portions of the area more
likely to see effects from the remnants of Erika, temperatures
will struggle to try to reach 90 and lows will dip into the low-
mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The weak trough aloft will shift eastward slowly toward the
central Gulf, pushing the upper level ridge eastward as well.
This very slight pattern shift will allow mid-upper layer flow
from the south to continue, keeping the area warm and moist. This
continued presence of moisture will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the 20-40% range through the long term period,
with the highest chances over the eastern Big Bend and south
central Georgia, where low level flow from the east is expected to
bring some late season east coast sea-breeze storms in over the
late afternoon/evening hours.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions are expect to prevail through
most of the afternoon with a few showers or thunderstorms
approaching KVLD and KABY. Overnight, low cigs are a possibility
at all terminals (with the possible exception of KECP).

&&

.Marine...

Winds will remain 10 knots or less and waves around 2 feet or
less outside of thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals over the next 5 days may be up around 2-3" in the
southeast Big Bend with isolated areas receiving higher totals.
This is not expected to cause significant rises along our area
rivers, which are currently at normal levels, although it may
cause isolated pockets of flooding, especially low lying areas
with poor drainage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  92  73  92  75 /  10  30  10  30  20
Panama City   75  88  75  89  76 /  10  20  10  20  20
Dothan        70  91  72  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        72  90  72  91  74 /  10  30  10  20  10
Valdosta      72  89  72  90  73 /  40  40  10  40  20
Cross City    74  89  75  89  75 /  50  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  75  90  75  90  77 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 301944
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
344 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Upper low will continue to lift northeastward overnight and
gradually weaken. The dry mid/upper level air drawn northward by the
upper low will limit shower activity overnight with the best chances
for rain over the eastern Big Bend counties.


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

A weak trough aloft over the western Gulf and ridge near Bermuda
will keep south-southwesterly deep layer flow, which will
stretch and steer moisture from the remnants of Erika through
Tuesday night. The weak area of low pressure is very disorganized
and, in an unfavorable environment aloft, unlikely to redevelop,
though we will likely see some showers and thunderstorms from it
over the eastern third of our area. Most of this moisture will be
focused over the Florida Peninsula, keeping the highest rainfall
totals to our east. Locally, the highest rainfall is expected in
the southeast Big Bend with totals around 1-2" expected and
isolated totals around 3-5" possible. Since we`ve dried out over
the past few weeks, the area should be able to handle these
totals, although ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage
areas may occur. The western portions of our forecast area will
see more isolated convection and highs rising into the low 90s and
overnight lows in the low 70s. Over the portions of the area more
likely to see effects from the remnants of Erika, temperatures
will struggle to try to reach 90 and lows will dip into the low-
mid 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The weak trough aloft will shift eastward slowly toward the
central Gulf, pushing the upper level ridge eastward as well.
This very slight pattern shift will allow mid-upper layer flow
from the south to continue, keeping the area warm and moist. This
continued presence of moisture will keep chances for showers and
thunderstorms in the 20-40% range through the long term period,
with the highest chances over the eastern Big Bend and south
central Georgia, where low level flow from the east is expected to
bring some late season east coast sea-breeze storms in over the
late afternoon/evening hours.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions are expect to prevail through
most of the afternoon with a few showers or thunderstorms
approaching KVLD and KABY. Overnight, low cigs are a possibility
at all terminals (with the possible exception of KECP).

&&

.Marine...

Winds will remain 10 knots or less and waves around 2 feet or
less outside of thunderstorms through the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall totals over the next 5 days may be up around 2-3" in the
southeast Big Bend with isolated areas receiving higher totals.
This is not expected to cause significant rises along our area
rivers, which are currently at normal levels, although it may
cause isolated pockets of flooding, especially low lying areas
with poor drainage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  92  73  92  75 /  10  30  10  30  20
Panama City   75  88  75  89  76 /  10  20  10  20  20
Dothan        70  91  72  93  74 /  10  20  10  20  10
Albany        72  90  72  91  74 /  10  30  10  20  10
Valdosta      72  89  72  90  73 /  40  40  10  40  20
Cross City    74  89  75  89  75 /  50  60  20  50  20
Apalachicola  75  90  75  90  77 /  20  30  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EDT tonight FOR Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTBW 301907
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
307 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015



.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REMAINS FAIRLY COMPLEX GIVEN A TROPICAL WAVE (ERIKA REMNANTS)
LIFTING OVER THE STATE FROM THE FL STRAITS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE PANHANDLE HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN. WITH THE LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE
WAVE TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.


FOR THE FORECAST... THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW. AT THE MOMENT... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH BETTER
COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. WHILE THE
COVERAGE IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED AT THE
MOMENT... THE CONCERN IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING BANDS OF
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY OVER FLOODED RIVER BASINS OR URBAN AREAS.
GIVEN THE PREVIOUS MONTHS RAINFALL... IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR AREA.
GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL... THE FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MAINLY BE EAST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST. RAIN THREAT
DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL AGAIN FAVOR INLAND AREAS TOMORROW.
AREAL AVERAGE RAIN TOTALS THROUGH TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE UP
TO 3 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS IS. NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE NEED OF A WATCH BUT GIVEN LOWER RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW... WILL LEAVE THOSE COUNTIES OUT FOR
NOW.


.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)..MODELS REMAIN IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SO A
BLEND WILL BE USED. A TROUGH AXIS (THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA) FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED
WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL WASH OUT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
IN OVER THE REGION AS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LA ON
THURSDAY RETROGRADES SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF. AMPLE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME REGIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED OVER INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE MERGER.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND AREAS...AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CURRENT CONVECTION... HAVE REMOVED TEMPOS AND MAINTAINED VCTS AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE LIKELY
GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IF
THUDNERSTORMS APPROACH A SITE. VFR EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE VCTS BY 14-16Z TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OVER
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TOMORROW. WHILE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS A LOW CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOCUSING OVER WATERS NEAR THE COASTLINE AND
FURTHER INLAND.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE AND
HAZARD CRITERIA TODAY AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE TROPICAL WAVES LIFTS NORTH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT.


&&

.CLIMATE...WITH LESS THAN TWO DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TAMPA COULD MOVE UP FROM THE CURRENT
3RD WETTEST AUGUST...2ND WETTEST JULY/AUGUST COMBINED...AND TIED
FOR 5TH WETTEST SUMMER (JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) SINCE RECORD BEGAN IN
1890.

  TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA
WETTEST AUGUST       WETTEST JUL/AUG      WETTEST SUMMER

1 18.59 IN 1949      1 28.31 IN 1960      1 43.03 IN 1945
2 17.83 IN 1898      2 27.48 IN 2015*     2 36.13 IN 2012
3 15.64 IN 2015*     3 26.33 IN 1925      3 34.79 IN 1909
4 15.17 IN 1932      4 26.12 IN 1898      4 34.67 IN 1960
5 14.90 IN 2003      5 24.53 IN 1906      5 33.71 IN 2015*
                                            33.71 IN 1925

* 2015 RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH AUGUST 29

&&

HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL OVER THE RECENT WEEKS HAVE BROUGHT MANY AREA
RIVERS AND CREEKS UP PAST THEIR FLOOD STAGES. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
WILL BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
AREAS AND THE FORECAST OF THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL HAS PROMPTED A
FLOOD WATCH FROM HERNANDO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. RIVERS THAT ARE IN FLOOD OR EXPECTED TO FLOOD ARE:

THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AT TRILBY
THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AT CROOM
THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AT HOLDER
THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK
THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA
THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA
THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS
THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW
THE HORSE CREEK NEAR ARCADIA
THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD
THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS
THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS
THE HILLSBOROUGH RIVER NEAR ZEPHYRHILLS

PLEASE SEE THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  77  90 /  50  50  40  60
FMY  75  88  76  91 /  60  60  30  60
GIF  75  88  75  91 /  60  70  30  70
SRQ  75  87  77  90 /  50  50  40  60
BKV  74  88  74  90 /  50  50  30  60
SPG  77  88  78  90 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL
CLIMATE...69/CLOSE
HYDROLOGY...007/DOUGHERTY



000
FXUS62 KTBW 301907
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
307 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015



.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH TOMORROW)... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REMAINS FAIRLY COMPLEX GIVEN A TROPICAL WAVE (ERIKA REMNANTS)
LIFTING OVER THE STATE FROM THE FL STRAITS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHING NORTH OUT OF THE PANHANDLE HELPING TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN. WITH THE LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW EXPECT THE
WAVE TO SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW.


FOR THE FORECAST... THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW. AT THE MOMENT... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
IS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH BETTER
COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. WHILE THE
COVERAGE IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS INITIALLY ANTICIPATED AT THE
MOMENT... THE CONCERN IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING BANDS OF
SHOWERS... ESPECIALLY OVER FLOODED RIVER BASINS OR URBAN AREAS.
GIVEN THE PREVIOUS MONTHS RAINFALL... IT WILL NOT TAKE LONG FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING TO OCCUR IF SHOWERS TRAIN OVER A PARTICULAR AREA.
GIVEN THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL... THE FOCUS FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL MAINLY BE EAST OF THE I 75 CORRIDOR WITH A
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST. RAIN THREAT
DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT BUT WILL AGAIN FAVOR INLAND AREAS TOMORROW.
AREAL AVERAGE RAIN TOTALS THROUGH TOMORROW WILL GENERALLY BE UP
TO 3 INCHES... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH AS IS. NORTHERN ZONES WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE NEED OF A WATCH BUT GIVEN LOWER RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW... WILL LEAVE THOSE COUNTIES OUT FOR
NOW.


.LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)..MODELS REMAIN IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SO A
BLEND WILL BE USED. A TROUGH AXIS (THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA) FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PENINSULA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE (PW`S AOA 2 INCHES) COMBINED
WITH THIS TROUGH AND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES ELEVATED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL WASH OUT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
IN OVER THE REGION AS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER LA ON
THURSDAY RETROGRADES SOUTHWEST INTO THE WESTERN GULF. AMPLE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME REGIME ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED OVER INLAND LOCATIONS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE MERGER.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND AREAS...AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE WIDELY SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CURRENT CONVECTION... HAVE REMOVED TEMPOS AND MAINTAINED VCTS AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT. PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE LIKELY
GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IF
THUDNERSTORMS APPROACH A SITE. VFR EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE VCTS BY 14-16Z TOMORROW.


&&

.MARINE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OVER
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TOMORROW. WHILE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS A LOW CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT... NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOCUSING OVER WATERS NEAR THE COASTLINE AND
FURTHER INLAND.  WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE AND
HAZARD CRITERIA TODAY AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE TROPICAL WAVES LIFTS NORTH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAIN
THREAT.


&&

.CLIMATE...WITH LESS THAN TWO DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TAMPA COULD MOVE UP FROM THE CURRENT
3RD WETTEST AUGUST...2ND WETTEST JULY/AUGUST COMBINED...AND TIED
FOR 5TH WETTEST SUMMER (JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) SINCE RECORD BEGAN IN
1890.

  TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA
WETTEST AUGUST       WETTEST JUL/AUG      WETTEST SUMMER

1 18.59 IN 1949      1 28.31 IN 1960      1 43.03 IN 1945
2 17.83 IN 1898      2 27.48 IN 2015*     2 36.13 IN 2012
3 15.64 IN 2015*     3 26.33 IN 1925      3 34.79 IN 1909
4 15.17 IN 1932      4 26.12 IN 1898      4 34.67 IN 1960
5 14.90 IN 2003      5 24.53 IN 1906      5 33.71 IN 2015*
                                            33.71 IN 1925

* 2015 RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH AUGUST 29

&&

HYDROLOGY... RAINFALL OVER THE RECENT WEEKS HAVE BROUGHT MANY AREA
RIVERS AND CREEKS UP PAST THEIR FLOOD STAGES. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
WILL BRING ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
AREAS AND THE FORECAST OF THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL HAS PROMPTED A
FLOOD WATCH FROM HERNANDO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. RIVERS THAT ARE IN FLOOD OR EXPECTED TO FLOOD ARE:

THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AT TRILBY
THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AT CROOM
THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AT HOLDER
THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK
THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA
THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA
THE PEACE RIVER AT ARCADIA
THE PEACE RIVER AT ZOLFO SPRINGS
THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW
THE HORSE CREEK NEAR ARCADIA
THE MANATEE RIVER NEAR MYAKKA HEAD
THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS
THE CYPRESS CREEK AT WORTHINGTON GARDENS
THE HILLSBOROUGH RIVER NEAR ZEPHYRHILLS

PLEASE SEE THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  88  77  90 /  50  50  40  60
FMY  75  88  76  91 /  60  60  30  60
GIF  75  88  75  91 /  60  70  30  70
SRQ  75  87  77  90 /  50  50  40  60
BKV  74  88  74  90 /  50  50  30  60
SPG  77  88  78  90 /  50  50  40  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL
CLIMATE...69/CLOSE
HYDROLOGY...007/DOUGHERTY




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301827
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
227 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL VIGOR AND COVERAGE OF DEEP CUMULUS
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE LIKELY HAS STABILIZED
SOMEWHAT OWING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AND
NEGATIVELY BUOYANT AIR AT LOW LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS...A LARGE CLUSTER
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST...WHILE
NEWLY DEVELOPING STORMS ALSO ARE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
ITS ADJACENT WATERS. LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO
HAVE WANED SLIGHTLY SINCE ITS PEAK EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER...A VERY
MOIST AND CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL PERSISTS...AND IT LIKELY WILL NOT TAKE
LONG FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE GIVEN THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS ARE RAIN-FREE...WHILE
IT IS RAINING LIGHTLY OR MODERATELY IN THE UPPER KEYS. SEE OUR MOST
RECENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...MIAPNSKEY...FOR THE LATEST
RAINFALL REPORTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. AMOUNTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS RANGED FROM UNDER A HALF INCH IN MID-TOWN KEY WEST TO NEARLY
THREE INCHES IN PORTIONS OF KEY LARGO...WITH 100 PERCENT COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE KEYS. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
TO THE MID 80S IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. WINDS HAVE GONE DUE SOUTH...BLOWING
STEADY FROM 15-20 MPH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.

FORECASTS -- THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE GOVERNED PRIMARILY BY A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD SWAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN DUE TO INCURSIONS OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY FROM THE MIDLATITUDES. THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
GRADUALLY WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD AND ELONGATE ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DROP
RAPIDLY FROM EAST TO WEST STARTING LATER TONIGHT. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY DROP A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR A
FEW PERIODS WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BRINGS SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...THIS PHASE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND WE
RETURN 12-HOUR MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO PEAK EARLY SEPTEMBER
CLIMATOLOGCIAL VALUES OF 40 PERCENT.

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...TURNING SOUTHEAST...THEN EAST CLOSER TO 10 MPH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING LIGHTER BREEZES. AN AREA OF WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. &&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR NEITHER OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MARATHON AS AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN DRIFTS
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT LATER
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...THEY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1891...THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL OF 3.76" WAS RECORDED. PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1871.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  88  82  90 / 70 50 30 30
MARATHON  78  89  82  92 / 70 50 30 30
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-
     GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
COORDINATOR...........RIZZO

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 301827
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
227 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL VIGOR AND COVERAGE OF DEEP CUMULUS
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE LIKELY HAS STABILIZED
SOMEWHAT OWING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AND
NEGATIVELY BUOYANT AIR AT LOW LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS...A LARGE CLUSTER
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST...WHILE
NEWLY DEVELOPING STORMS ALSO ARE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
ITS ADJACENT WATERS. LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO
HAVE WANED SLIGHTLY SINCE ITS PEAK EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER...A VERY
MOIST AND CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL PERSISTS...AND IT LIKELY WILL NOT TAKE
LONG FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE GIVEN THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS ARE RAIN-FREE...WHILE
IT IS RAINING LIGHTLY OR MODERATELY IN THE UPPER KEYS. SEE OUR MOST
RECENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...MIAPNSKEY...FOR THE LATEST
RAINFALL REPORTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. AMOUNTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS RANGED FROM UNDER A HALF INCH IN MID-TOWN KEY WEST TO NEARLY
THREE INCHES IN PORTIONS OF KEY LARGO...WITH 100 PERCENT COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE KEYS. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
TO THE MID 80S IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. WINDS HAVE GONE DUE SOUTH...BLOWING
STEADY FROM 15-20 MPH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.

FORECASTS -- THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE GOVERNED PRIMARILY BY A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD SWAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN DUE TO INCURSIONS OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY FROM THE MIDLATITUDES. THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
GRADUALLY WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD AND ELONGATE ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DROP
RAPIDLY FROM EAST TO WEST STARTING LATER TONIGHT. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY DROP A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR A
FEW PERIODS WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BRINGS SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...THIS PHASE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND WE
RETURN 12-HOUR MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO PEAK EARLY SEPTEMBER
CLIMATOLOGCIAL VALUES OF 40 PERCENT.

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...TURNING SOUTHEAST...THEN EAST CLOSER TO 10 MPH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING LIGHTER BREEZES. AN AREA OF WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. &&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR NEITHER OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MARATHON AS AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN DRIFTS
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT LATER
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...THEY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1891...THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL OF 3.76" WAS RECORDED. PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1871.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  88  82  90 / 70 50 30 30
MARATHON  78  89  82  92 / 70 50 30 30
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-
     GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
COORDINATOR...........RIZZO

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301827
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
227 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL VIGOR AND COVERAGE OF DEEP CUMULUS
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE LIKELY HAS STABILIZED
SOMEWHAT OWING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AND
NEGATIVELY BUOYANT AIR AT LOW LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS...A LARGE CLUSTER
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST...WHILE
NEWLY DEVELOPING STORMS ALSO ARE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
ITS ADJACENT WATERS. LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO
HAVE WANED SLIGHTLY SINCE ITS PEAK EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER...A VERY
MOIST AND CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL PERSISTS...AND IT LIKELY WILL NOT TAKE
LONG FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE GIVEN THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS ARE RAIN-FREE...WHILE
IT IS RAINING LIGHTLY OR MODERATELY IN THE UPPER KEYS. SEE OUR MOST
RECENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...MIAPNSKEY...FOR THE LATEST
RAINFALL REPORTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. AMOUNTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS RANGED FROM UNDER A HALF INCH IN MID-TOWN KEY WEST TO NEARLY
THREE INCHES IN PORTIONS OF KEY LARGO...WITH 100 PERCENT COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE KEYS. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
TO THE MID 80S IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. WINDS HAVE GONE DUE SOUTH...BLOWING
STEADY FROM 15-20 MPH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.

FORECASTS -- THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE GOVERNED PRIMARILY BY A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD SWAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN DUE TO INCURSIONS OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY FROM THE MIDLATITUDES. THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
GRADUALLY WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD AND ELONGATE ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DROP
RAPIDLY FROM EAST TO WEST STARTING LATER TONIGHT. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY DROP A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR A
FEW PERIODS WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BRINGS SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...THIS PHASE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND WE
RETURN 12-HOUR MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO PEAK EARLY SEPTEMBER
CLIMATOLOGCIAL VALUES OF 40 PERCENT.

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...TURNING SOUTHEAST...THEN EAST CLOSER TO 10 MPH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING LIGHTER BREEZES. AN AREA OF WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. &&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR NEITHER OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MARATHON AS AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN DRIFTS
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT LATER
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...THEY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1891...THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL OF 3.76" WAS RECORDED. PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1871.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  88  82  90 / 70 50 30 30
MARATHON  78  89  82  92 / 70 50 30 30
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-
     GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
COORDINATOR...........RIZZO

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KKEY 301827
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
227 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL VIGOR AND COVERAGE OF DEEP CUMULUS
CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE LIKELY HAS STABILIZED
SOMEWHAT OWING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ASSOCIATED COOLER AND
NEGATIVELY BUOYANT AIR AT LOW LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS...A LARGE CLUSTER
OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING OVER THE LOWER STRAITS OF FLORIDA
BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NAUTICAL MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST...WHILE
NEWLY DEVELOPING STORMS ALSO ARE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
ITS ADJACENT WATERS. LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO
HAVE WANED SLIGHTLY SINCE ITS PEAK EARLIER TODAY. HOWEVER...A VERY
MOIST AND CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL PERSISTS...AND IT LIKELY WILL NOT TAKE
LONG FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE GIVEN THE WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY BREEZES.

CURRENTLY...MOST OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS ARE RAIN-FREE...WHILE
IT IS RAINING LIGHTLY OR MODERATELY IN THE UPPER KEYS. SEE OUR MOST
RECENT PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...MIAPNSKEY...FOR THE LATEST
RAINFALL REPORTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS. AMOUNTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS RANGED FROM UNDER A HALF INCH IN MID-TOWN KEY WEST TO NEARLY
THREE INCHES IN PORTIONS OF KEY LARGO...WITH 100 PERCENT COVERAGE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ACROSS THE KEYS. AIR TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED
TO THE MID 80S IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS...WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S. WINDS HAVE GONE DUE SOUTH...BLOWING
STEADY FROM 15-20 MPH...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.

FORECASTS -- THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL BE GOVERNED PRIMARILY BY A DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE
BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HOLD SWAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING DOWN DUE TO INCURSIONS OF CYCLONIC
VORTICITY FROM THE MIDLATITUDES. THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER FROM THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
GRADUALLY WILL MIGRATE NORTHWARD AND ELONGATE ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DROP
RAPIDLY FROM EAST TO WEST STARTING LATER TONIGHT. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY DROP A BIT BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR A
FEW PERIODS WHILE THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE BRINGS SOME SUBSIDENCE
AND DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...THIS PHASE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND WE
RETURN 12-HOUR MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES BACK TO PEAK EARLY SEPTEMBER
CLIMATOLOGCIAL VALUES OF 40 PERCENT.

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY...TURNING SOUTHEAST...THEN EAST CLOSER TO 10 MPH FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...WHILE A WEAK ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA...BRINGING LIGHTER BREEZES. AN AREA OF WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE THEN WILL REMAIN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. &&

.AVIATION...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR NEITHER OF THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER...MVFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE FOR MARATHON AS AN AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN DRIFTS
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT LATER
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...THEY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.
&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1891...THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL OF 3.76" WAS RECORDED. PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1871.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  78  88  82  90 / 70 50 30 30
MARATHON  78  89  82  92 / 70 50 30 30
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-
     GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
COORDINATOR...........RIZZO

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLACED VCSH IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT IF ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP, VCTS MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. WINDS CAN EASILY GUST
TO 30KTS WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON IF THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONGER
SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT,
WITH THE WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  78  92 /  70  60  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  79  91 /  70  60  30  40
MIAMI            78  90  79  92 /  70  60  30  40
NAPLES           77  90  77  92 /  80  70  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 301812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLACED VCSH IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT IF ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP, VCTS MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. WINDS CAN EASILY GUST
TO 30KTS WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON IF THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONGER
SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT,
WITH THE WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  78  92 /  70  60  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  79  91 /  70  60  30  40
MIAMI            78  90  79  92 /  70  60  30  40
NAPLES           77  90  77  92 /  80  70  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301503
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1103 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA BETWEEN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS THE SCENE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS INDICATE NUMEROUS...
QUICK-DEVELOPING...AND FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...WITH
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CELL MOVEMENTS ARE COMPLEX...
WITH STORM MOTIONS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST AND ADJACENT WATERS...AND WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THESE STORM MOTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH A SHARP EASTERLY WAVE...THE AXIS OF WHICH
EXTENDS FROM ABOUT LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WAVE
EMERGED FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA YESTERDAY...AND
DECELERATED AS IT PIVOTED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK
OF A ROBUST DEEP LAYER MEAN SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE PLUME
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY DATA COLLECTED THIS MORNING
FROM THE KEY WEST MORNING RADIOSONDE BALLOON...AS WELL AS ANIMATIONS
OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /MIMIC TPW/ FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS GROUP.

AT THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
LAYER MEAN POSITION....AND RUNNING FROM ABOUT MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY...TO DRY TORTUGAS...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
AN ASSOCIATED DEEP AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FACILITATING PERSISTENT
DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...WITH SOAKING
TROPICAL RAINS AFFECTING MANY KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION...UPSCALE GROWTH WITH DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION BETWEEN
THE LOWER KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS IS LEADING TO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS MAY BUILD SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE 850MB FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOWER KEYS. IF THE MCS DOES BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
KEYS...SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND INCREASED STREET FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR -- SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR NOW.

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE MORNING PACKAGE. IN
SHORT...CLOUDY...WET...AND SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND PART OF TONIGHT...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. A
FEW TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE DIGITAL AND DERIVED PRODUCTS.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES...AND SMALL
CRAFT ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE COVERAGE OF STRONG SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS...
SQUALLS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZES WILL RELAX AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO LIGHT
EASTERLY BREEZES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS TODAY AND AFFECT THEM DURING PERIODS OF ONE HOUR
AT THE TIME. THESE WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY TO BELOW 2 MILES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-
     GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
WARNINGS/AVIATION.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
COORDINATOR...........RIZZO

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301503
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1103 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA BETWEEN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS THE SCENE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS INDICATE NUMEROUS...
QUICK-DEVELOPING...AND FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...WITH
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CELL MOVEMENTS ARE COMPLEX...
WITH STORM MOTIONS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST AND ADJACENT WATERS...AND WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THESE STORM MOTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH A SHARP EASTERLY WAVE...THE AXIS OF WHICH
EXTENDS FROM ABOUT LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WAVE
EMERGED FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA YESTERDAY...AND
DECELERATED AS IT PIVOTED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK
OF A ROBUST DEEP LAYER MEAN SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE PLUME
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY DATA COLLECTED THIS MORNING
FROM THE KEY WEST MORNING RADIOSONDE BALLOON...AS WELL AS ANIMATIONS
OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /MIMIC TPW/ FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS GROUP.

AT THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
LAYER MEAN POSITION....AND RUNNING FROM ABOUT MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY...TO DRY TORTUGAS...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
AN ASSOCIATED DEEP AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FACILITATING PERSISTENT
DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...WITH SOAKING
TROPICAL RAINS AFFECTING MANY KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION...UPSCALE GROWTH WITH DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION BETWEEN
THE LOWER KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS IS LEADING TO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS MAY BUILD SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE 850MB FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOWER KEYS. IF THE MCS DOES BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
KEYS...SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND INCREASED STREET FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR -- SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR NOW.

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE MORNING PACKAGE. IN
SHORT...CLOUDY...WET...AND SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND PART OF TONIGHT...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. A
FEW TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE DIGITAL AND DERIVED PRODUCTS.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES...AND SMALL
CRAFT ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE COVERAGE OF STRONG SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS...
SQUALLS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZES WILL RELAX AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO LIGHT
EASTERLY BREEZES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS TODAY AND AFFECT THEM DURING PERIODS OF ONE HOUR
AT THE TIME. THESE WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY TO BELOW 2 MILES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-
     GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
WARNINGS/AVIATION.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
COORDINATOR...........RIZZO

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301503
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1103 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA BETWEEN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS THE SCENE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS INDICATE NUMEROUS...
QUICK-DEVELOPING...AND FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...WITH
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CELL MOVEMENTS ARE COMPLEX...
WITH STORM MOTIONS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST AND ADJACENT WATERS...AND WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THESE STORM MOTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH A SHARP EASTERLY WAVE...THE AXIS OF WHICH
EXTENDS FROM ABOUT LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WAVE
EMERGED FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA YESTERDAY...AND
DECELERATED AS IT PIVOTED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK
OF A ROBUST DEEP LAYER MEAN SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE PLUME
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY DATA COLLECTED THIS MORNING
FROM THE KEY WEST MORNING RADIOSONDE BALLOON...AS WELL AS ANIMATIONS
OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /MIMIC TPW/ FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS GROUP.

AT THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
LAYER MEAN POSITION....AND RUNNING FROM ABOUT MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY...TO DRY TORTUGAS...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
AN ASSOCIATED DEEP AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FACILITATING PERSISTENT
DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...WITH SOAKING
TROPICAL RAINS AFFECTING MANY KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION...UPSCALE GROWTH WITH DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION BETWEEN
THE LOWER KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS IS LEADING TO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS MAY BUILD SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE 850MB FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOWER KEYS. IF THE MCS DOES BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
KEYS...SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND INCREASED STREET FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR -- SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR NOW.

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE MORNING PACKAGE. IN
SHORT...CLOUDY...WET...AND SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND PART OF TONIGHT...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. A
FEW TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE DIGITAL AND DERIVED PRODUCTS.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES...AND SMALL
CRAFT ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE COVERAGE OF STRONG SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS...
SQUALLS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZES WILL RELAX AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO LIGHT
EASTERLY BREEZES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS TODAY AND AFFECT THEM DURING PERIODS OF ONE HOUR
AT THE TIME. THESE WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY TO BELOW 2 MILES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-
     GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
WARNINGS/AVIATION.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
COORDINATOR...........RIZZO

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 301503
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1103 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE AREA BETWEEN SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS THE SCENE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING. KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR SCANS INDICATE NUMEROUS...
QUICK-DEVELOPING...AND FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS...WITH
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. CELL MOVEMENTS ARE COMPLEX...
WITH STORM MOTIONS NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE KEYS FROM OCEAN
REEF TO KEY WEST AND ADJACENT WATERS...AND WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOWER STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. THESE STORM MOTIONS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOWER-
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THROUGH A SHARP EASTERLY WAVE...THE AXIS OF WHICH
EXTENDS FROM ABOUT LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WAVE
EMERGED FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA YESTERDAY...AND
DECELERATED AS IT PIVOTED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK
OF A ROBUST DEEP LAYER MEAN SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE PLUME
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AS EVIDENCED BY DATA COLLECTED THIS MORNING
FROM THE KEY WEST MORNING RADIOSONDE BALLOON...AS WELL AS ANIMATIONS
OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /MIMIC TPW/ FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN CIMSS GROUP.

AT THE SURFACE...A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE AXIS ALIGNED WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
LAYER MEAN POSITION....AND RUNNING FROM ABOUT MAINLAND MONROE
COUNTY...TO DRY TORTUGAS...AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
AN ASSOCIATED DEEP AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT IS FACILITATING PERSISTENT
DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA...WITH SOAKING
TROPICAL RAINS AFFECTING MANY KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING.
IN ADDITION...UPSCALE GROWTH WITH DEEP CUMULUS CONVECTION BETWEEN
THE LOWER KEYS AND DRY TORTUGAS IS LEADING TO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS MAY BUILD SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO THE 850MB FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
LOWER KEYS. IF THE MCS DOES BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
KEYS...SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND INCREASED STREET FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR -- SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR NOW.

FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE MORNING PACKAGE. IN
SHORT...CLOUDY...WET...AND SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND PART OF TONIGHT...WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. A
FEW TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE DIGITAL AND DERIVED PRODUCTS.
&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES...AND SMALL
CRAFT ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE COVERAGE OF STRONG SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS...
SQUALLS...AND THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZES WILL RELAX AND SEAS WILL
SUBSIDE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO LIGHT
EASTERLY BREEZES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS TODAY AND AFFECT THEM DURING PERIODS OF ONE HOUR
AT THE TIME. THESE WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS AND
REDUCTION OF VISIBILITY TO BELOW 2 MILES. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR GMZ031-GMZ032-GMZ033-
     GMZ034-GMZ035-GMZ042-GMZ043-GMZ044-GMZ052-GMZ053-GMZ054-
     GMZ055-GMZ072-GMZ073-GMZ074-GMZ075.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
WARNINGS/AVIATION.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING
COORDINATOR...........RIZZO

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KTAE 301428
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1028 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low moving steadily
northeast across SE Alabama this morning. A dry slot to the east
of the low is pushing well inland into the Big Bend and SW
Georgia. This drying should help to limit thunderstorm activity
for the western half of the area this afternoon, with the best
chances confined to the eastern third, where deep layer moisture
will remain most plentiful. Current forecast is on track with
temperatures still expected to climb into the lower 90s as skies
clear.

&&

.Prev Discussion [657 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

IFR ceilings prevail across the region with some MVFR mixed in.
Additionally LIFR visibilities are mainly confined to DHN and ECP.
Expect restrictions to clear within the next couple of hours.
Scattered showers are expected this morning at ABY and VLD, with
thunderstorms more likely at VLD later this afternoon.


.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  50  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KTAE 301428
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1028 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Morning water vapor imagery shows an upper low moving steadily
northeast across SE Alabama this morning. A dry slot to the east
of the low is pushing well inland into the Big Bend and SW
Georgia. This drying should help to limit thunderstorm activity
for the western half of the area this afternoon, with the best
chances confined to the eastern third, where deep layer moisture
will remain most plentiful. Current forecast is on track with
temperatures still expected to climb into the lower 90s as skies
clear.

&&

.Prev Discussion [657 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

IFR ceilings prevail across the region with some MVFR mixed in.
Additionally LIFR visibilities are mainly confined to DHN and ECP.
Expect restrictions to clear within the next couple of hours.
Scattered showers are expected this morning at ABY and VLD, with
thunderstorms more likely at VLD later this afternoon.


.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  50  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS



000
FXUS62 KMLB 301417
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1017 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

TODAY...TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AT LEAST 2.2 TO 2.3 INCHES. THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
AN INVERTED TROUGH (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER KEYS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIKELY EXTENDED EVEN FARTHER
NORTHWARD TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL SINCE THE BUOYS OFFSHORE WERE
SHOWING BREEZY SOUTHEAST FLOW WHILE OUR NORTHERN LAND AREAS WERE
LIGHT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

NORTHERN BAHAMA CONVERGENCE LINES AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE HAVE LED
TO A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE WAS
SHOWING A LARGER SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LARGER CLUSTERS OF
STORMS.

THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN BRUSHED BY A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
THERE WERE LIKELY SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESSING INLAND FROM THE
COASTAL CONVECTION.  EXPECT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
MODEST HEATING THROUGH LATE MORNING THERE WILL BE A RATHER LARGE
CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING.  THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
BLOWUP LIFTING NORTHWARD UP THE INTERIOR WITH SOME AFFECTING THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TOO.

THIS SETUP ALONG WITH SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A HIGH
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS 2-3
INCHES...SO FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD.

WE COULD JUST ABOUT RING THE BELL TODAY AND GO WITH 100 PERCENT
POPS.  DO NOT PLAN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE THOUGH...WHICH SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 90 POPS.  WITH ALL THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND
MIGHT HAVE TO TWEAK READINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. GREATEST COVERAGE AND
BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
IN THE MORNING...THEN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/SCT STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PAST MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA...NEAR SOUTH FL...PRODUCES
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UP
TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST OVER THE WATERS.

THOUGH THE STORMY WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP MOST SMALL CRAFT IN
PORT...THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TREASURE
COAST WATERS AND OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENTS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARD WHERE ANY PERSISTENT RAIN
BANDS CAN DEVELOP. ALSO...SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1) IS ONLY
ABOUT 0.2 FEET BELOW ACTION STAGE. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN TODAY MAY PRODUCE MINOR
FLOODING AT THIS SITE AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK/VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 301417
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1017 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

TODAY...TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AT LEAST 2.2 TO 2.3 INCHES. THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
AN INVERTED TROUGH (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER KEYS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIKELY EXTENDED EVEN FARTHER
NORTHWARD TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL SINCE THE BUOYS OFFSHORE WERE
SHOWING BREEZY SOUTHEAST FLOW WHILE OUR NORTHERN LAND AREAS WERE
LIGHT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

NORTHERN BAHAMA CONVERGENCE LINES AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE HAVE LED
TO A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE WAS
SHOWING A LARGER SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LARGER CLUSTERS OF
STORMS.

THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN BRUSHED BY A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
THERE WERE LIKELY SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESSING INLAND FROM THE
COASTAL CONVECTION.  EXPECT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
MODEST HEATING THROUGH LATE MORNING THERE WILL BE A RATHER LARGE
CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING.  THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
BLOWUP LIFTING NORTHWARD UP THE INTERIOR WITH SOME AFFECTING THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TOO.

THIS SETUP ALONG WITH SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A HIGH
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS 2-3
INCHES...SO FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD.

WE COULD JUST ABOUT RING THE BELL TODAY AND GO WITH 100 PERCENT
POPS.  DO NOT PLAN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE THOUGH...WHICH SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 90 POPS.  WITH ALL THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND
MIGHT HAVE TO TWEAK READINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. GREATEST COVERAGE AND
BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
IN THE MORNING...THEN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/SCT STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PAST MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA...NEAR SOUTH FL...PRODUCES
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UP
TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST OVER THE WATERS.

THOUGH THE STORMY WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP MOST SMALL CRAFT IN
PORT...THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TREASURE
COAST WATERS AND OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENTS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARD WHERE ANY PERSISTENT RAIN
BANDS CAN DEVELOP. ALSO...SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1) IS ONLY
ABOUT 0.2 FEET BELOW ACTION STAGE. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN TODAY MAY PRODUCE MINOR
FLOODING AT THIS SITE AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK/VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 301417
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1017 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

TODAY...TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AT LEAST 2.2 TO 2.3 INCHES. THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
AN INVERTED TROUGH (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER KEYS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIKELY EXTENDED EVEN FARTHER
NORTHWARD TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL SINCE THE BUOYS OFFSHORE WERE
SHOWING BREEZY SOUTHEAST FLOW WHILE OUR NORTHERN LAND AREAS WERE
LIGHT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

NORTHERN BAHAMA CONVERGENCE LINES AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE HAVE LED
TO A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE WAS
SHOWING A LARGER SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LARGER CLUSTERS OF
STORMS.

THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN BRUSHED BY A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
THERE WERE LIKELY SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESSING INLAND FROM THE
COASTAL CONVECTION.  EXPECT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
MODEST HEATING THROUGH LATE MORNING THERE WILL BE A RATHER LARGE
CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING.  THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
BLOWUP LIFTING NORTHWARD UP THE INTERIOR WITH SOME AFFECTING THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TOO.

THIS SETUP ALONG WITH SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A HIGH
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS 2-3
INCHES...SO FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD.

WE COULD JUST ABOUT RING THE BELL TODAY AND GO WITH 100 PERCENT
POPS.  DO NOT PLAN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE THOUGH...WHICH SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 90 POPS.  WITH ALL THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND
MIGHT HAVE TO TWEAK READINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. GREATEST COVERAGE AND
BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
IN THE MORNING...THEN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/SCT STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PAST MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA...NEAR SOUTH FL...PRODUCES
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UP
TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST OVER THE WATERS.

THOUGH THE STORMY WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP MOST SMALL CRAFT IN
PORT...THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TREASURE
COAST WATERS AND OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENTS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARD WHERE ANY PERSISTENT RAIN
BANDS CAN DEVELOP. ALSO...SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1) IS ONLY
ABOUT 0.2 FEET BELOW ACTION STAGE. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN TODAY MAY PRODUCE MINOR
FLOODING AT THIS SITE AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK/VOLKMER



000
FXUS62 KMLB 301417
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1017 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

TODAY...TROPICAL AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AT LEAST 2.2 TO 2.3 INCHES. THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED
AN INVERTED TROUGH (REMNANTS OF ERIKA) EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER KEYS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LOW LEVEL TROUGH LIKELY EXTENDED EVEN FARTHER
NORTHWARD TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL SINCE THE BUOYS OFFSHORE WERE
SHOWING BREEZY SOUTHEAST FLOW WHILE OUR NORTHERN LAND AREAS WERE
LIGHT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

NORTHERN BAHAMA CONVERGENCE LINES AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE HAVE LED
TO A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE WAS
SHOWING A LARGER SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY APPROACHING GRAND BAHAMA
FROM THE SOUTH...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME LARGER CLUSTERS OF
STORMS.

THE INTERIOR HAS BEEN BRUSHED BY A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
THERE WERE LIKELY SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESSING INLAND FROM THE
COASTAL CONVECTION.  EXPECT WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
MODEST HEATING THROUGH LATE MORNING THERE WILL BE A RATHER LARGE
CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING.  THE HRRR MODEL HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS
BLOWUP LIFTING NORTHWARD UP THE INTERIOR WITH SOME AFFECTING THE
COASTAL COUNTIES TOO.

THIS SETUP ALONG WITH SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A HIGH
COVERAGE OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS COULD HAVE RAINFALL TOTALS 2-3
INCHES...SO FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE LOOKS GOOD.

WE COULD JUST ABOUT RING THE BELL TODAY AND GO WITH 100 PERCENT
POPS.  DO NOT PLAN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE THOUGH...WHICH SHOWS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 90 POPS.  WITH ALL THE
RAIN AND CLOUDS...TEMPS WILL HAVE TROUBLE REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND
MIGHT HAVE TO TWEAK READINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. GREATEST COVERAGE AND
BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
IN THE MORNING...THEN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/SCT STORM COVERAGE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR PAST MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS
REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA...NEAR SOUTH FL...PRODUCES
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS. WIND SPEEDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UP
TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST OVER THE WATERS.

THOUGH THE STORMY WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP MOST SMALL CRAFT IN
PORT...THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE TREASURE
COAST WATERS AND OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY...WITH EXERCISE CAUTION
STATEMENTS ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP
TO 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY FLOODING WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARD WHERE ANY PERSISTENT RAIN
BANDS CAN DEVELOP. ALSO...SHINGLE CREEK AT CAMPBELL (SHIF1) IS ONLY
ABOUT 0.2 FEET BELOW ACTION STAGE. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL
TOTALS ACROSS THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN TODAY MAY PRODUCE MINOR
FLOODING AT THIS SITE AND WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK/VOLKMER



000
FXUS62 KMFL 301343
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH 12Z RAOB PWAT AT 2.4". HVY
RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES WITH TRAINING LINES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS APPROACHING THE EAST COAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SOLID 2 TO 3
INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT, SO ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS WHICH CONTAIN
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE METRO AREAS THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED FAVORABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 6.8C/KM AND
FAIR H5 TEMPS AROUND -7C. KEY TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS SOME STRONG STORMS, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR
AND WEST, WILL BE BASED UPON HEATING LATER TODAY. LLVL
SHR/HELICITY AND WIND PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. BY 0Z MONDAY,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS JUST OFFSHORE OF NAPLES, WHICH SHOULD ALSO
PLACE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            85  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           88  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301343
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH 12Z RAOB PWAT AT 2.4". HVY
RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES WITH TRAINING LINES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS APPROACHING THE EAST COAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SOLID 2 TO 3
INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT, SO ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS WHICH CONTAIN
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE METRO AREAS THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED FAVORABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 6.8C/KM AND
FAIR H5 TEMPS AROUND -7C. KEY TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS SOME STRONG STORMS, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR
AND WEST, WILL BE BASED UPON HEATING LATER TODAY. LLVL
SHR/HELICITY AND WIND PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. BY 0Z MONDAY,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS JUST OFFSHORE OF NAPLES, WHICH SHOULD ALSO
PLACE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            85  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           88  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301343
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH 12Z RAOB PWAT AT 2.4". HVY
RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES WITH TRAINING LINES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS APPROACHING THE EAST COAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SOLID 2 TO 3
INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT, SO ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS WHICH CONTAIN
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE METRO AREAS THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED FAVORABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 6.8C/KM AND
FAIR H5 TEMPS AROUND -7C. KEY TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS SOME STRONG STORMS, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR
AND WEST, WILL BE BASED UPON HEATING LATER TODAY. LLVL
SHR/HELICITY AND WIND PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. BY 0Z MONDAY,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS JUST OFFSHORE OF NAPLES, WHICH SHOULD ALSO
PLACE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            85  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           88  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301343
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH 12Z RAOB PWAT AT 2.4". HVY
RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES WITH TRAINING LINES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS APPROACHING THE EAST COAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SOLID 2 TO 3
INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT, SO ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS WHICH CONTAIN
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE METRO AREAS THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED FAVORABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 6.8C/KM AND
FAIR H5 TEMPS AROUND -7C. KEY TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS SOME STRONG STORMS, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR
AND WEST, WILL BE BASED UPON HEATING LATER TODAY. LLVL
SHR/HELICITY AND WIND PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. BY 0Z MONDAY,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS JUST OFFSHORE OF NAPLES, WHICH SHOULD ALSO
PLACE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            85  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           88  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KTBW 301335
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE...

.UPDATE... ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA THANKS TO THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER THE FL STRAITS. AT
THE MOMENT RAINFALL IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT HI RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RAIN
SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TODAY... WILL MAINTAIN THE 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
WILL DECIDE BY THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE IF THE WATCH NEEDS TO BE
EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE HIGHLY
SATURATED SOILS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING TO OCCUR NEAR STREAMS OR IN
URBAN AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION TO LAL WHERE LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IF
SHOWERS/STORMS SETTLE OVER A TAF SITES BUT MVFR SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL WITH EXTENDED POCKETS OF VFR.


&&

.MARINE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTHWARD
TODAY PUSHING IN EXCESS TROPICAL MOISTURE.  RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TODAY BUT THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND
FURTHER INLAND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE AND
HAZARD CRITERIA TODAY AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE TROPICAL WAVES LIFTS NORTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  76  88  77 /  90  60  80  60
FMY  88  75  89  76 /  90  60  80  60
GIF  89  74  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SRQ  89  75  88  77 /  90  60  80  70
BKV  89  73  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SPG  89  77  88  78 /  90  60  80  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
MARINE...99
DECISION SUPPORT...99




000
FXUS62 KTBW 301335
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE...

.UPDATE... ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA THANKS TO THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER THE FL STRAITS. AT
THE MOMENT RAINFALL IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT HI RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RAIN
SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TODAY... WILL MAINTAIN THE 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
WILL DECIDE BY THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE IF THE WATCH NEEDS TO BE
EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE HIGHLY
SATURATED SOILS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING TO OCCUR NEAR STREAMS OR IN
URBAN AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION TO LAL WHERE LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IF
SHOWERS/STORMS SETTLE OVER A TAF SITES BUT MVFR SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL WITH EXTENDED POCKETS OF VFR.


&&

.MARINE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTHWARD
TODAY PUSHING IN EXCESS TROPICAL MOISTURE.  RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TODAY BUT THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND
FURTHER INLAND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE AND
HAZARD CRITERIA TODAY AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE TROPICAL WAVES LIFTS NORTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  76  88  77 /  90  60  80  60
FMY  88  75  89  76 /  90  60  80  60
GIF  89  74  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SRQ  89  75  88  77 /  90  60  80  70
BKV  89  73  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SPG  89  77  88  78 /  90  60  80  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
MARINE...99
DECISION SUPPORT...99



000
FXUS62 KTBW 301335
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
935 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE...

.UPDATE... ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA THANKS TO THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE PANHANDLE AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA OVER THE FL STRAITS. AT
THE MOMENT RAINFALL IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT HI RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE RAIN
SPREADING INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TODAY... WILL MAINTAIN THE 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
TOTALS... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA.
WILL DECIDE BY THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE IF THE WATCH NEEDS TO BE
EXTENDED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MAIN IMPACT TODAY WILL BE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE HIGHLY
SATURATED SOILS AND SEVERAL RIVERS AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE IT WILL
NOT TAKE LONG FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING TO OCCUR NEAR STREAMS OR IN
URBAN AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CURRENTLY OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION TO LAL WHERE LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE PRESENT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE REGION BY THE EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IF
SHOWERS/STORMS SETTLE OVER A TAF SITES BUT MVFR SHOULD GENERALLY
PREVAIL WITH EXTENDED POCKETS OF VFR.


&&

.MARINE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE SPREAD NORTHWARD
TODAY PUSHING IN EXCESS TROPICAL MOISTURE.  RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TODAY BUT THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE COAST AND
FURTHER INLAND. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE AND
HAZARD CRITERIA TODAY AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW AS THE TROPICAL WAVES LIFTS NORTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  76  88  77 /  90  60  80  60
FMY  88  75  89  76 /  90  60  80  60
GIF  89  74  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SRQ  89  75  88  77 /  90  60  80  70
BKV  89  73  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SPG  89  77  88  78 /  90  60  80  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
     COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
     COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-
     HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-
     INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
     PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...20/BARRON
MARINE...99
DECISION SUPPORT...99



000
FXUS62 KJAX 301241
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
841 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEK...

.UPDATE...

PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL IMPULSES
WITH RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE NEXT
IMPULSE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. THIS ALONG WITH
SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...PER
THE 2.10 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX SOUNDING...WILL
INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. WITH FLOOD POTENTIAL LOCALIZED...WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FAR INLAND...TO THE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESRPEAD SHWRS. WITH TSTM
COVERAGE MAINLY SCATTERED...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH SCEC
PREVAILING THROUGH TNGT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: EXPECT WATER LEVEL TO REMAIN ABOUT ONE
HALF FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOOD STATUS AS HIGH TIDE CYCLES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO NO STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  72  88  74 /  70  50  50  20
SSI  84  77  86  76 /  80  70  70  50
JAX  87  73  87  75 /  80  60  70  40
SGJ  86  75  87  75 /  90  70  80  40
GNV  88  73  87  73 /  80  50  70  20
OCF  89  73  87  73 /  80  60  80  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 301241
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
841 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEK...

.UPDATE...

PRECIP HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING IN BETWEEN MID LEVEL IMPULSES
WITH RESIDUAL SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OFFSHORE. EXPECT THE NEXT
IMPULSE TO ROTATE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN. THIS ALONG WITH
SOME SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHWRS/TSTMS. WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...PER
THE 2.10 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX SOUNDING...WILL
INCLUDE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. WITH FLOOD POTENTIAL LOCALIZED...WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FAR INLAND...TO THE MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY THIS AFTN. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NUMEROUS TO WIDESRPEAD SHWRS. WITH TSTM
COVERAGE MAINLY SCATTERED...WILL USE VCTS FOR ALL SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH SCEC
PREVAILING THROUGH TNGT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: EXPECT WATER LEVEL TO REMAIN ABOUT ONE
HALF FOOT BELOW MINOR FLOOD STATUS AS HIGH TIDE CYCLES THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SO NO STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  86  72  88  74 /  70  50  50  20
SSI  84  77  86  76 /  80  70  70  50
JAX  87  73  87  75 /  80  60  70  40
SGJ  86  75  87  75 /  90  70  80  40
GNV  88  73  87  73 /  80  50  70  20
OCF  89  73  87  73 /  80  60  80  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301145
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 301145
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301145
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301145
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KTAE 301057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

IFR ceilings prevail across the region with some MVFR mixed in.
Additionally LIFR visibilities are mainly confined to DHN and ECP.
Expect restrictions to clear within the next couple of hours.
Scattered showers are expected this morning at ABY and VLD, with
thunderstorms more likely at VLD later this afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [406 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As seen vividly on WV imagery this morning, a +PV anomaly/upper
low spins over the far western panhandle of Florida. This
feature and its associated surface trough will be the primary
forcing mechanisms for convection across the region today. As of
07z, some showers can be found across southwest GA, along the
surface trough. As the upper low moves northeast through the
region today, the surface trough will shift east as well. This
will result in the bulk of our convective initiation this
afternoon occurring east of a line from Albany through
Tallahassee. Some heavy rain will be possible across the southeast
Big Bend and south-central Georgia where steering flow will run
parallel to the surface trough. Expect average rainfall amounts in
this area to be around an inch, with isolated totals between 2-4
inches. Late in the afternoon and early evening, some of the
storms may begin to drift back west as the influence of the upper
low diminishes and broad troughing across the Florida peninsula
moves north, turning steering flow more easterly. Highs today will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.


.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  50  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS



000
FXUS62 KTAE 301057
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday]...

IFR ceilings prevail across the region with some MVFR mixed in.
Additionally LIFR visibilities are mainly confined to DHN and ECP.
Expect restrictions to clear within the next couple of hours.
Scattered showers are expected this morning at ABY and VLD, with
thunderstorms more likely at VLD later this afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion [406 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As seen vividly on WV imagery this morning, a +PV anomaly/upper
low spins over the far western panhandle of Florida. This
feature and its associated surface trough will be the primary
forcing mechanisms for convection across the region today. As of
07z, some showers can be found across southwest GA, along the
surface trough. As the upper low moves northeast through the
region today, the surface trough will shift east as well. This
will result in the bulk of our convective initiation this
afternoon occurring east of a line from Albany through
Tallahassee. Some heavy rain will be possible across the southeast
Big Bend and south-central Georgia where steering flow will run
parallel to the surface trough. Expect average rainfall amounts in
this area to be around an inch, with isolated totals between 2-4
inches. Late in the afternoon and early evening, some of the
storms may begin to drift back west as the influence of the upper
low diminishes and broad troughing across the Florida peninsula
moves north, turning steering flow more easterly. Highs today will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.


.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  60  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  50  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KKEY 300944 CCA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
544 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAVE MOVED INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A BROAD AND WEAK CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT ON THE LONGER...TIME-LAPSED LOOPS FROM THE KBYX RADAR.
THE CIMSS LOW -LEVEL (850-700MB) VORTICITY ANALYSES CORROBORATE THIS
ASSERTION. REGIONAL INFRA-RED IMAGES DESCRIBE A LESS CONCENTRIC
SYSTEM. ONE PIECE OF ERIKA SLID WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA...WHILE THE SECOND PIECE INVIGORATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER
KEY AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. IN FACT...THE TURKEY POINT WEATHER FLOW
MESONET REGISTERED A 56 KNOT GUST SHORTLY BEFORE 2 AM. CURRENT WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TROUGH AXIS BISECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS. WINDS
ARE NORTHEAST AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT MOLASSES
REEF...AVERAGING NEAR 20 KNOTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. UNFORTUNATELY...OUR
MOST WESTERN OBSERVATION AT PULASKI SHOAL STOPPED REPORTING AT
05Z...REGISTERING A NORTH WIND NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE MOST RECENT RADAR
SCANS HIGHLIGHT A PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THE REMNANT`S WESTERN QUADRANT...WITH STRONGER CONVECTION STREAMING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE CYCLONIC AND MOIST
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL SLIDE TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY TRAIL OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE CONFLUENT
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DRAWS NORTHWARD. THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL RETURN TO THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY
NIGHT...USHERING-IN EASTERLY BREEZES ON TUESDAY. A DRY SLOT IN THE
EASTERLIES (SEE MIMIC TPW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA) SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE RETURN OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THUS...WE HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RELATIVELY NORMAL PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL FEATURING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES...RAIN
CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
90S.

&&

.MARINE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLY
WEATHER. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AND BREEZES WILL RELAX MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS
WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  79  88  81 / 80 70 50 40
MARATHON  89  79  89  81 / 80 70 50 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KKEY 300944 CCA
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
544 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAVE MOVED INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A BROAD AND WEAK CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT ON THE LONGER...TIME-LAPSED LOOPS FROM THE KBYX RADAR.
THE CIMSS LOW -LEVEL (850-700MB) VORTICITY ANALYSES CORROBORATE THIS
ASSERTION. REGIONAL INFRA-RED IMAGES DESCRIBE A LESS CONCENTRIC
SYSTEM. ONE PIECE OF ERIKA SLID WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA...WHILE THE SECOND PIECE INVIGORATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER
KEY AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. IN FACT...THE TURKEY POINT WEATHER FLOW
MESONET REGISTERED A 56 KNOT GUST SHORTLY BEFORE 2 AM. CURRENT WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TROUGH AXIS BISECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS. WINDS
ARE NORTHEAST AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT MOLASSES
REEF...AVERAGING NEAR 20 KNOTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. UNFORTUNATELY...OUR
MOST WESTERN OBSERVATION AT PULASKI SHOAL STOPPED REPORTING AT
05Z...REGISTERING A NORTH WIND NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE MOST RECENT RADAR
SCANS HIGHLIGHT A PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THE REMNANT`S WESTERN QUADRANT...WITH STRONGER CONVECTION STREAMING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE CYCLONIC AND MOIST
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL SLIDE TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY TRAIL OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE CONFLUENT
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DRAWS NORTHWARD. THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL RETURN TO THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY
NIGHT...USHERING-IN EASTERLY BREEZES ON TUESDAY. A DRY SLOT IN THE
EASTERLIES (SEE MIMIC TPW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA) SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE RETURN OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THUS...WE HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RELATIVELY NORMAL PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL FEATURING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES...RAIN
CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
90S.

&&

.MARINE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLY
WEATHER. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AND BREEZES WILL RELAX MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS
WILL FRESHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  79  88  81 / 80 70 50 40
MARATHON  89  79  89  81 / 80 70 50 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST



000
FXUS62 KMLB 300900
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH MODEL PWATS UP TO 2.2-2.3
INCHES WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA...N OF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
(REMAINS OF ERIKA) NEAR S FL. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE TROUGH AND ENHANCED
DIVERGENCE FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF....WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINING IN
EFFECT. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE BREVARD/TREASURE
COAST IN THE MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MODEST HEATING OCCURS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS OR LOCATIONS WHERE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
S/SE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS...STRONG AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFT.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING AND THEN TAPER OFF ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER ALONG THE COAST SCT-NMRS N-NW
MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

MON-TUE...WET PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MON AS REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM WHAT WAS ERIKA TRANSITIONS TO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO WHILE SEARCHING FOR DIRECTION AND PURPOSE. THERE DOES REMAIN
SOME VERY MODEST OPPORTUNITY FOR REGENERATION...BUT MUCH WOULD
DEPEND UPON THE UPPER WINDS AND FORTUNE. EVEN SO...ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWATS (EVEN FOR AUG/SEP) ARE THE LOCAL CONCERN AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAIN CONTINUES WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME PULLED N. CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS SKEWED TOWARD THE W
PENINSULA CLOSER TO FEATURE...BUT SIMPLY CANNOT DOWNPLAY THREAT IN
THE PRESENCE OF 2.3 INCHES OF PWAT.

TUE SHOULD FIND ASSOCIATED TROUGHINESS PUSHED A LITTLE FARTHER W AND
N WITH CONCENTRATED MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. GFS WANTS TO WASH OUT
THE FEATURE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A TRACER ON IT UNTIL A LITTLE
LATER IN THE WEEK. LOCALLY...A MORE RELAXED SE FLOW GENERALLY
CONTINUES BUT NOW COURTESY OF S PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

POPS ABOVE NORMAL MON AND DIALING BACK SOMEWHAT FOR TUE. MAX TEMPS
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...MIN TEMPS MID 70S.

WED-SAT...LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N
FL AND S GA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL DAMPENS AND ABSORBED. A
GENERAL SE-S LOW-LVL FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SFC RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE N. ENVIRONMENT LOOKING TO RETURN TO RELATIVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. GREATEST
COVERAGE AND BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING...THEN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/SCT
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PAST MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINING LIKELY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS AS REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA...NEAR SOUTH
FL...INCREASES WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WIND SPEEDS UP TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE
WATERS...ADDING TO THE UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS OF THE TREASURE
COAST AND OFFSHORE OF BREVARD COUNTY WHERE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE HAZARDOUS...BUT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION IF
VENTURING FARTHER NORTH AND INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.

MON...THE POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS SE
WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT NEAR
SHORE BUT 4 TO 6 FT LINGER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

TUE-THU...RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE N WILL
SUPPORT SE-S WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS (EXCEPT
3 TO 4 FT ON TUE OFFSHORE). MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER BOATING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARD WHERE ANY
PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS CAN DEVELOP. ALSO...SHINGLE CREEK AT
CAMPBELL (SHIF1) IS ONLY ABOUT 0.2 FEET BELOW ACTION STAGE. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN
TODAY MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AT THIS SITE AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  76  88  75 /  90  60  70  40
MCO  87  75  90  74 /  90  60  70  50
MLB  87  77  89  76 /  90  60  70  50
VRB  87  76  88  74 /  90  70  70  50
LEE  88  76  89  76 /  90  60  70  50
SFB  87  75  89  75 /  90  60  70  50
ORL  87  75  88  76 /  90  60  70  50
FPR  86  75  89  74 /  90  70  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS
HYDRO...MB




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300900
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH MODEL PWATS UP TO 2.2-2.3
INCHES WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA...N OF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
(REMAINS OF ERIKA) NEAR S FL. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE TROUGH AND ENHANCED
DIVERGENCE FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF....WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINING IN
EFFECT. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE BREVARD/TREASURE
COAST IN THE MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MODEST HEATING OCCURS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS OR LOCATIONS WHERE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
S/SE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS...STRONG AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFT.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING AND THEN TAPER OFF ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER ALONG THE COAST SCT-NMRS N-NW
MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

MON-TUE...WET PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MON AS REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM WHAT WAS ERIKA TRANSITIONS TO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO WHILE SEARCHING FOR DIRECTION AND PURPOSE. THERE DOES REMAIN
SOME VERY MODEST OPPORTUNITY FOR REGENERATION...BUT MUCH WOULD
DEPEND UPON THE UPPER WINDS AND FORTUNE. EVEN SO...ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWATS (EVEN FOR AUG/SEP) ARE THE LOCAL CONCERN AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAIN CONTINUES WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME PULLED N. CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS SKEWED TOWARD THE W
PENINSULA CLOSER TO FEATURE...BUT SIMPLY CANNOT DOWNPLAY THREAT IN
THE PRESENCE OF 2.3 INCHES OF PWAT.

TUE SHOULD FIND ASSOCIATED TROUGHINESS PUSHED A LITTLE FARTHER W AND
N WITH CONCENTRATED MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. GFS WANTS TO WASH OUT
THE FEATURE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A TRACER ON IT UNTIL A LITTLE
LATER IN THE WEEK. LOCALLY...A MORE RELAXED SE FLOW GENERALLY
CONTINUES BUT NOW COURTESY OF S PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

POPS ABOVE NORMAL MON AND DIALING BACK SOMEWHAT FOR TUE. MAX TEMPS
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...MIN TEMPS MID 70S.

WED-SAT...LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N
FL AND S GA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL DAMPENS AND ABSORBED. A
GENERAL SE-S LOW-LVL FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SFC RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE N. ENVIRONMENT LOOKING TO RETURN TO RELATIVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. GREATEST
COVERAGE AND BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING...THEN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/SCT
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PAST MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINING LIKELY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS AS REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA...NEAR SOUTH
FL...INCREASES WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WIND SPEEDS UP TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE
WATERS...ADDING TO THE UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS OF THE TREASURE
COAST AND OFFSHORE OF BREVARD COUNTY WHERE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE HAZARDOUS...BUT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION IF
VENTURING FARTHER NORTH AND INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.

MON...THE POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS SE
WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT NEAR
SHORE BUT 4 TO 6 FT LINGER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

TUE-THU...RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE N WILL
SUPPORT SE-S WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS (EXCEPT
3 TO 4 FT ON TUE OFFSHORE). MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER BOATING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARD WHERE ANY
PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS CAN DEVELOP. ALSO...SHINGLE CREEK AT
CAMPBELL (SHIF1) IS ONLY ABOUT 0.2 FEET BELOW ACTION STAGE. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN
TODAY MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AT THIS SITE AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  76  88  75 /  90  60  70  40
MCO  87  75  90  74 /  90  60  70  50
MLB  87  77  89  76 /  90  60  70  50
VRB  87  76  88  74 /  90  70  70  50
LEE  88  76  89  76 /  90  60  70  50
SFB  87  75  89  75 /  90  60  70  50
ORL  87  75  88  76 /  90  60  70  50
FPR  86  75  89  74 /  90  70  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS
HYDRO...MB




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300900
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH MODEL PWATS UP TO 2.2-2.3
INCHES WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA...N OF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
(REMAINS OF ERIKA) NEAR S FL. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE TROUGH AND ENHANCED
DIVERGENCE FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF....WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINING IN
EFFECT. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE BREVARD/TREASURE
COAST IN THE MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MODEST HEATING OCCURS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS OR LOCATIONS WHERE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
S/SE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS...STRONG AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFT.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING AND THEN TAPER OFF ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER ALONG THE COAST SCT-NMRS N-NW
MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

MON-TUE...WET PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MON AS REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM WHAT WAS ERIKA TRANSITIONS TO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO WHILE SEARCHING FOR DIRECTION AND PURPOSE. THERE DOES REMAIN
SOME VERY MODEST OPPORTUNITY FOR REGENERATION...BUT MUCH WOULD
DEPEND UPON THE UPPER WINDS AND FORTUNE. EVEN SO...ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWATS (EVEN FOR AUG/SEP) ARE THE LOCAL CONCERN AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAIN CONTINUES WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME PULLED N. CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS SKEWED TOWARD THE W
PENINSULA CLOSER TO FEATURE...BUT SIMPLY CANNOT DOWNPLAY THREAT IN
THE PRESENCE OF 2.3 INCHES OF PWAT.

TUE SHOULD FIND ASSOCIATED TROUGHINESS PUSHED A LITTLE FARTHER W AND
N WITH CONCENTRATED MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. GFS WANTS TO WASH OUT
THE FEATURE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A TRACER ON IT UNTIL A LITTLE
LATER IN THE WEEK. LOCALLY...A MORE RELAXED SE FLOW GENERALLY
CONTINUES BUT NOW COURTESY OF S PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

POPS ABOVE NORMAL MON AND DIALING BACK SOMEWHAT FOR TUE. MAX TEMPS
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...MIN TEMPS MID 70S.

WED-SAT...LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N
FL AND S GA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL DAMPENS AND ABSORBED. A
GENERAL SE-S LOW-LVL FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SFC RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE N. ENVIRONMENT LOOKING TO RETURN TO RELATIVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. GREATEST
COVERAGE AND BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING...THEN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/SCT
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PAST MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINING LIKELY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS AS REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA...NEAR SOUTH
FL...INCREASES WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WIND SPEEDS UP TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE
WATERS...ADDING TO THE UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS OF THE TREASURE
COAST AND OFFSHORE OF BREVARD COUNTY WHERE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE HAZARDOUS...BUT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION IF
VENTURING FARTHER NORTH AND INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.

MON...THE POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS SE
WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT NEAR
SHORE BUT 4 TO 6 FT LINGER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

TUE-THU...RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE N WILL
SUPPORT SE-S WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS (EXCEPT
3 TO 4 FT ON TUE OFFSHORE). MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER BOATING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARD WHERE ANY
PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS CAN DEVELOP. ALSO...SHINGLE CREEK AT
CAMPBELL (SHIF1) IS ONLY ABOUT 0.2 FEET BELOW ACTION STAGE. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN
TODAY MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AT THIS SITE AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  76  88  75 /  90  60  70  40
MCO  87  75  90  74 /  90  60  70  50
MLB  87  77  89  76 /  90  60  70  50
VRB  87  76  88  74 /  90  70  70  50
LEE  88  76  89  76 /  90  60  70  50
SFB  87  75  89  75 /  90  60  70  50
ORL  87  75  88  76 /  90  60  70  50
FPR  86  75  89  74 /  90  70  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS
HYDRO...MB




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300900
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...TROPICAL AIRMASS WITH MODEL PWATS UP TO 2.2-2.3
INCHES WILL STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA...N OF TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
(REMAINS OF ERIKA) NEAR S FL. THIS DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE TROUGH AND ENHANCED
DIVERGENCE FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GULF....WILL PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS
WILL KEEP A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS THE
REGION WITH A FLOOD WATCH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINING IN
EFFECT. HEAVY RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE BREVARD/TREASURE
COAST IN THE MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO THE INTERIOR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MODEST HEATING OCCURS THROUGH LATE MORNING.
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2 INCHES EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS OR LOCATIONS WHERE
HEAVIER SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
S/SE WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS...STRONG AT TIMES THROUGH
THE AFT.

RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH INTO THE EVENING AND THEN TAPER OFF ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER ALONG THE COAST SCT-NMRS N-NW
MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINTAINING
THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.

MON-TUE...WET PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MON AS REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM WHAT WAS ERIKA TRANSITIONS TO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO WHILE SEARCHING FOR DIRECTION AND PURPOSE. THERE DOES REMAIN
SOME VERY MODEST OPPORTUNITY FOR REGENERATION...BUT MUCH WOULD
DEPEND UPON THE UPPER WINDS AND FORTUNE. EVEN SO...ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWATS (EVEN FOR AUG/SEP) ARE THE LOCAL CONCERN AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAIN CONTINUES WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME PULLED N. CHANCE FOR HIGHER TOTALS SKEWED TOWARD THE W
PENINSULA CLOSER TO FEATURE...BUT SIMPLY CANNOT DOWNPLAY THREAT IN
THE PRESENCE OF 2.3 INCHES OF PWAT.

TUE SHOULD FIND ASSOCIATED TROUGHINESS PUSHED A LITTLE FARTHER W AND
N WITH CONCENTRATED MOISTURE ALONG WITH IT. GFS WANTS TO WASH OUT
THE FEATURE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A TRACER ON IT UNTIL A LITTLE
LATER IN THE WEEK. LOCALLY...A MORE RELAXED SE FLOW GENERALLY
CONTINUES BUT NOW COURTESY OF S PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE.

POPS ABOVE NORMAL MON AND DIALING BACK SOMEWHAT FOR TUE. MAX TEMPS
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...MIN TEMPS MID 70S.

WED-SAT...LINGERING TROUGHINESS OVER EXTREME NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N
FL AND S GA AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE POOL DAMPENS AND ABSORBED. A
GENERAL SE-S LOW-LVL FLOW FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SFC RIDGE
SITUATED TO THE N. ENVIRONMENT LOOKING TO RETURN TO RELATIVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY WITH A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE. GREATEST
COVERAGE AND BEST CHANCE FOR REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING...THEN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER/SCT
STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA INTO THE AFT. RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PAST MIDNIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
REMAINING LIKELY ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY/TONIGHT...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER
THE WATERS AS REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA...NEAR SOUTH
FL...INCREASES WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. WIND SPEEDS UP TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 6-7 FEET OFFSHORE. IN ADDITION
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH TO NORTHWEST OVER THE
WATERS...ADDING TO THE UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.

HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE WATERS OF THE TREASURE
COAST AND OFFSHORE OF BREVARD COUNTY WHERE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE HAZARDOUS...BUT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STILL EXERCISE CAUTION IF
VENTURING FARTHER NORTH AND INTO THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.

MON...THE POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE AS SE
WINDS BEGIN TO LESSEN TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT NEAR
SHORE BUT 4 TO 6 FT LINGER OFFSHORE. SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL
LIKELY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

TUE-THU...RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED TO THE N WILL
SUPPORT SE-S WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS (EXCEPT
3 TO 4 FT ON TUE OFFSHORE). MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER BOATING
CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND TO 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS UP TO 5 TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY
FLOODING WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD SOUTHWARD WHERE ANY
PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS CAN DEVELOP. ALSO...SHINGLE CREEK AT
CAMPBELL (SHIF1) IS ONLY ABOUT 0.2 FEET BELOW ACTION STAGE. ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SHINGLE CREEK BASIN
TODAY MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING AT THIS SITE AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  76  88  75 /  90  60  70  40
MCO  87  75  90  74 /  90  60  70  50
MLB  87  77  89  76 /  90  60  70  50
VRB  87  76  88  74 /  90  70  70  50
LEE  88  76  89  76 /  90  60  70  50
SFB  87  75  89  75 /  90  60  70  50
ORL  87  75  88  76 /  90  60  70  50
FPR  86  75  89  74 /  90  70  70  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SEBASTIAN
     INLET TO JUPITER INLET 0-20 NM-SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET 20-60 NM-VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET 20-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS
HYDRO...MB




000
FXUS62 KKEY 300853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
453 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAVE MOVED INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A BROAD AND WEAK CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT ON THE LONGER...TIME-LAPSED LOOPS FROM THE KBYX RADAR.
THE CIMSS LOW -LEVEL (850-700MB) VORTICITY ANALYSES CORROBORATE THIS
ASSERTION. REGIONAL INFRA-RED IMAGES DESCRIBE A LESS CONCENTRIC
SYSTEM. ONE PIECE OF ERIKA SLID WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA...WHILE THE SECOND PIECE INVIGORATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER
KEY AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. IN FACT...THE TURKEY POINT WEATHER FLOW
MESONET REGISTERED A 56 KNOT GUST SHORTLY BEFORE 2 AM. CURRENT WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TROUGH AXIS BISECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS. WINDS
ARE NORTHEAST AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT MOLASSES
REEF...AVERAGING NEAR 20 KNOTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. UNFORTUNATELY...OUR
MOST WESTERN OBSERVATION AT PULASKI SHOAL STOPPED REPORTING AT
05Z...REGISTERING A NORTH WIND NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE MOST RECENT RADAR
SCANS HIGHLIGHT A PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THE REMNANT`S WESTERN QUADRANT...WITH STRONGER CONVECTION STREAMING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE CYCLONIC AND MOIST
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL SLIDE TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY TRAIL OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE CONFLUENT
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DRAWS NORTHWARD. THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL RETURN TO THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY
NIGHT...USHERING-IN EASTERLY BREEZES ON TUESDAY. A DRY SLOT IN THE
EASTERLIES (SEE MIMIC TPW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA) SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE RETURN OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THUS...WE HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RELATIVELY NORMAL PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL FEATURING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES...RAIN
CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
90S.

&&

.MARINE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLY
WEATHER. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AND BREEZES WILL RELAX MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS WILL START LIGHT
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST...BECOMING GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  79  88  81 / 80 70 50 40
MARATHON  89  79  89  81 / 80 70 50 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300853
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
453 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAVE MOVED INTO
THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. A BROAD AND WEAK CIRCULATION
IS EVIDENT ON THE LONGER...TIME-LAPSED LOOPS FROM THE KBYX RADAR.
THE CIMSS LOW -LEVEL (850-700MB) VORTICITY ANALYSES CORROBORATE THIS
ASSERTION. REGIONAL INFRA-RED IMAGES DESCRIBE A LESS CONCENTRIC
SYSTEM. ONE PIECE OF ERIKA SLID WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
CUBA...WHILE THE SECOND PIECE INVIGORATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER
KEY AND SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. IN FACT...THE TURKEY POINT WEATHER FLOW
MESONET REGISTERED A 56 KNOT GUST SHORTLY BEFORE 2 AM. CURRENT WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A TROUGH AXIS BISECTING THE FLORIDA KEYS. WINDS
ARE NORTHEAST AT SMITH SHOAL LIGHT AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT MOLASSES
REEF...AVERAGING NEAR 20 KNOTS AT MOST LOCATIONS. UNFORTUNATELY...OUR
MOST WESTERN OBSERVATION AT PULASKI SHOAL STOPPED REPORTING AT
05Z...REGISTERING A NORTH WIND NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE MOST RECENT RADAR
SCANS HIGHLIGHT A PROLIFERATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
THE REMNANT`S WESTERN QUADRANT...WITH STRONGER CONVECTION STREAMING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE CYCLONIC AND MOIST
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL SLIDE TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY AND TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY TRAIL OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE CONFLUENT
FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DRAWS NORTHWARD. THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL RETURN TO THE FLORIDA KEYS MONDAY
NIGHT...USHERING-IN EASTERLY BREEZES ON TUESDAY. A DRY SLOT IN THE
EASTERLIES (SEE MIMIC TPW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA) SHOULD COINCIDE WITH
THE RETURN OF THE RIDGE AXIS...THUS...WE HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE TO ISOLATED.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A RELATIVELY NORMAL PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL FEATURING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZES...RAIN
CHANCES NEAR 30 PERCENT...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE
90S.

&&

.MARINE...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO STRONG
BREEZES TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLY
WEATHER. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AND BREEZES WILL RELAX MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE KEYS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...RESULTING IN
EPISODES OF GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION...SURFACE WINDS WILL START LIGHT
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST...BECOMING GENTLE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  88  79  88  81 / 80 70 50 40
MARATHON  89  79  89  81 / 80 70 50 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 300835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
LOOKING RATHER WET DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE FLOW TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY. DURING TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN
AND REDEVELOP OUT OVER THE GULF. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE ONSHORE AFFECTING THESE
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THEN DURING MONDAY A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
WE SHOULD SEE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.

ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE IN GENERAL
WE WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
WHERE THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FIRST. THEREFORE...WILL
LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE WATCH WITH LATER FORECASTS AS THE FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY HERE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE A WEAK OPEN WAVE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTH
AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
CONCERN...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BRING EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH
AS 2.25-2.40 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD
CAUSE AREAL FLOODING AND EXACERBATE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING.

DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE MARKED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA...WHILE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8
TO 2.25 INCHES OF PWAT...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. LIGHT FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.
THEN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SETUP RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALLOWING A DECENT SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH TWO DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
TAMPA SHOULD MOVE UP FROM THE CURRENT 3RD WETTEST AUGUST...2ND
WETTEST JULY/AUGUST COMBINED...AND TIED FOR 5TH WETTEST SUMMER
(JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) SINCE RECORD BEGAN IN 1890.

  TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA
WETTEST AUGUST       WETTEST JUL/AUG      WETTEST SUMMER

1 18.59 IN 1949      1 28.31 IN 1960      1 43.03 IN 1945
2 17.83 IN 1898      2 27.48 IN 2015*     2 36.13 IN 2012
3 15.64 IN 2015*     3 26.33 IN 1925      3 34.79 IN 1909
4 15.17 IN 1932      4 26.12 IN 1898      4 34.67 IN 1960
5 14.90 IN 2003      5 24.53 IN 1906      5 33.71 IN 2015*
                                            33.71 IN 1925

* 2015 RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH AUGUST 29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  76  88  77 /  90  60  80  60
FMY  88  75  89  76 /  90  60  80  60
GIF  89  74  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SRQ  89  75  88  77 /  90  60  80  70
BKV  89  73  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SPG  88  77  88  79 /  90  60  80  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING



000
FXUS62 KTBW 300835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
LOOKING RATHER WET DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE FLOW TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY. DURING TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN
AND REDEVELOP OUT OVER THE GULF. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE ONSHORE AFFECTING THESE
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THEN DURING MONDAY A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
WE SHOULD SEE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.

ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE IN GENERAL
WE WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
WHERE THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FIRST. THEREFORE...WILL
LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE WATCH WITH LATER FORECASTS AS THE FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY HERE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE A WEAK OPEN WAVE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTH
AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
CONCERN...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BRING EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH
AS 2.25-2.40 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD
CAUSE AREAL FLOODING AND EXACERBATE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING.

DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE MARKED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA...WHILE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8
TO 2.25 INCHES OF PWAT...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. LIGHT FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.
THEN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SETUP RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALLOWING A DECENT SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH TWO DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
TAMPA SHOULD MOVE UP FROM THE CURRENT 3RD WETTEST AUGUST...2ND
WETTEST JULY/AUGUST COMBINED...AND TIED FOR 5TH WETTEST SUMMER
(JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) SINCE RECORD BEGAN IN 1890.

  TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA
WETTEST AUGUST       WETTEST JUL/AUG      WETTEST SUMMER

1 18.59 IN 1949      1 28.31 IN 1960      1 43.03 IN 1945
2 17.83 IN 1898      2 27.48 IN 2015*     2 36.13 IN 2012
3 15.64 IN 2015*     3 26.33 IN 1925      3 34.79 IN 1909
4 15.17 IN 1932      4 26.12 IN 1898      4 34.67 IN 1960
5 14.90 IN 2003      5 24.53 IN 1906      5 33.71 IN 2015*
                                            33.71 IN 1925

* 2015 RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH AUGUST 29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  76  88  77 /  90  60  80  60
FMY  88  75  89  76 /  90  60  80  60
GIF  89  74  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SRQ  89  75  88  77 /  90  60  80  70
BKV  89  73  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SPG  88  77  88  79 /  90  60  80  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KTBW 300835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
LOOKING RATHER WET DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE FLOW TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY. DURING TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN
AND REDEVELOP OUT OVER THE GULF. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE ONSHORE AFFECTING THESE
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THEN DURING MONDAY A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
WE SHOULD SEE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.

ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE IN GENERAL
WE WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
WHERE THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FIRST. THEREFORE...WILL
LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE WATCH WITH LATER FORECASTS AS THE FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY HERE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE A WEAK OPEN WAVE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTH
AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
CONCERN...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BRING EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH
AS 2.25-2.40 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD
CAUSE AREAL FLOODING AND EXACERBATE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING.

DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE MARKED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA...WHILE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8
TO 2.25 INCHES OF PWAT...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. LIGHT FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.
THEN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SETUP RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALLOWING A DECENT SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH TWO DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
TAMPA SHOULD MOVE UP FROM THE CURRENT 3RD WETTEST AUGUST...2ND
WETTEST JULY/AUGUST COMBINED...AND TIED FOR 5TH WETTEST SUMMER
(JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) SINCE RECORD BEGAN IN 1890.

  TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA
WETTEST AUGUST       WETTEST JUL/AUG      WETTEST SUMMER

1 18.59 IN 1949      1 28.31 IN 1960      1 43.03 IN 1945
2 17.83 IN 1898      2 27.48 IN 2015*     2 36.13 IN 2012
3 15.64 IN 2015*     3 26.33 IN 1925      3 34.79 IN 1909
4 15.17 IN 1932      4 26.12 IN 1898      4 34.67 IN 1960
5 14.90 IN 2003      5 24.53 IN 1906      5 33.71 IN 2015*
                                            33.71 IN 1925

* 2015 RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH AUGUST 29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  76  88  77 /  90  60  80  60
FMY  88  75  89  76 /  90  60  80  60
GIF  89  74  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SRQ  89  75  88  77 /  90  60  80  70
BKV  89  73  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SPG  88  77  88  79 /  90  60  80  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING



000
FXUS62 KTBW 300835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
LOOKING RATHER WET DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE FLOW TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY. DURING TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN
AND REDEVELOP OUT OVER THE GULF. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE ONSHORE AFFECTING THESE
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THEN DURING MONDAY A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
WE SHOULD SEE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.

ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE IN GENERAL
WE WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
WHERE THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FIRST. THEREFORE...WILL
LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE WATCH WITH LATER FORECASTS AS THE FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY HERE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE A WEAK OPEN WAVE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTH
AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
CONCERN...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BRING EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH
AS 2.25-2.40 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD
CAUSE AREAL FLOODING AND EXACERBATE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING.

DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE MARKED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA...WHILE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8
TO 2.25 INCHES OF PWAT...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. LIGHT FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.
THEN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SETUP RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALLOWING A DECENT SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH TWO DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
TAMPA SHOULD MOVE UP FROM THE CURRENT 3RD WETTEST AUGUST...2ND
WETTEST JULY/AUGUST COMBINED...AND TIED FOR 5TH WETTEST SUMMER
(JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) SINCE RECORD BEGAN IN 1890.

  TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA
WETTEST AUGUST       WETTEST JUL/AUG      WETTEST SUMMER

1 18.59 IN 1949      1 28.31 IN 1960      1 43.03 IN 1945
2 17.83 IN 1898      2 27.48 IN 2015*     2 36.13 IN 2012
3 15.64 IN 2015*     3 26.33 IN 1925      3 34.79 IN 1909
4 15.17 IN 1932      4 26.12 IN 1898      4 34.67 IN 1960
5 14.90 IN 2003      5 24.53 IN 1906      5 33.71 IN 2015*
                                            33.71 IN 1925

* 2015 RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH AUGUST 29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  76  88  77 /  90  60  80  60
FMY  88  75  89  76 /  90  60  80  60
GIF  89  74  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SRQ  89  75  88  77 /  90  60  80  70
BKV  89  73  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SPG  88  77  88  79 /  90  60  80  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING



000
FXUS62 KTBW 300835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
LOOKING RATHER WET DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE FLOW TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY. DURING TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN
AND REDEVELOP OUT OVER THE GULF. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE ONSHORE AFFECTING THESE
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THEN DURING MONDAY A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
WE SHOULD SEE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.

ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE IN GENERAL
WE WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
WHERE THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FIRST. THEREFORE...WILL
LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE WATCH WITH LATER FORECASTS AS THE FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY HERE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE A WEAK OPEN WAVE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTH
AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
CONCERN...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BRING EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH
AS 2.25-2.40 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD
CAUSE AREAL FLOODING AND EXACERBATE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING.

DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE MARKED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA...WHILE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8
TO 2.25 INCHES OF PWAT...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. LIGHT FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.
THEN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SETUP RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALLOWING A DECENT SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH TWO DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
TAMPA SHOULD MOVE UP FROM THE CURRENT 3RD WETTEST AUGUST...2ND
WETTEST JULY/AUGUST COMBINED...AND TIED FOR 5TH WETTEST SUMMER
(JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) SINCE RECORD BEGAN IN 1890.

  TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA
WETTEST AUGUST       WETTEST JUL/AUG      WETTEST SUMMER

1 18.59 IN 1949      1 28.31 IN 1960      1 43.03 IN 1945
2 17.83 IN 1898      2 27.48 IN 2015*     2 36.13 IN 2012
3 15.64 IN 2015*     3 26.33 IN 1925      3 34.79 IN 1909
4 15.17 IN 1932      4 26.12 IN 1898      4 34.67 IN 1960
5 14.90 IN 2003      5 24.53 IN 1906      5 33.71 IN 2015*
                                            33.71 IN 1925

* 2015 RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH AUGUST 29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  76  88  77 /  90  60  80  60
FMY  88  75  89  76 /  90  60  80  60
GIF  89  74  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SRQ  89  75  88  77 /  90  60  80  70
BKV  89  73  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SPG  88  77  88  79 /  90  60  80  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING



000
FXUS62 KTBW 300835
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
435 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
LOOKING RATHER WET DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE...PRECIPITABLE WATER GREATER THAN 2 INCHES...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE
UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DEEP SOUTH LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY THE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER
WEST AWAY FROM THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA WITH THE FLOW TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY. DURING TONIGHT THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN
AND REDEVELOP OUT OVER THE GULF. THE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE ONSHORE AFFECTING THESE
AREAS LATE TONIGHT. THEN DURING MONDAY A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE
WE SHOULD SEE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN.

ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH RAIN
WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT LOOKS LIKE IN GENERAL
WE WILL SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
WHERE THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY FIRST. THEREFORE...WILL
LEAVE FLOOD WATCH AS IS AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE WATCH WITH LATER FORECASTS AS THE FLOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY HERE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

.MID/LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE A WEAK OPEN WAVE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTH
AND OUT OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
COASTAL WATERS...ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A
CONCERN...THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BRING EXCEPTIONALLY DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE...WITH MODEL PWAT VALUES FORECAST TO BE AS HIGH
AS 2.25-2.40 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD
CAUSE AREAL FLOODING AND EXACERBATE EXISTING RIVER FLOODING.

DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE MARKED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREA...WHILE WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SOME DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA...GENERALLY BETWEEN 1.8
TO 2.25 INCHES OF PWAT...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL RETURN TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN. LIGHT FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS.
THEN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SETUP RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALLOWING A DECENT SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 15
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS
COULD BE HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH TWO DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
TAMPA SHOULD MOVE UP FROM THE CURRENT 3RD WETTEST AUGUST...2ND
WETTEST JULY/AUGUST COMBINED...AND TIED FOR 5TH WETTEST SUMMER
(JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) SINCE RECORD BEGAN IN 1890.

  TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA
WETTEST AUGUST       WETTEST JUL/AUG      WETTEST SUMMER

1 18.59 IN 1949      1 28.31 IN 1960      1 43.03 IN 1945
2 17.83 IN 1898      2 27.48 IN 2015*     2 36.13 IN 2012
3 15.64 IN 2015*     3 26.33 IN 1925      3 34.79 IN 1909
4 15.17 IN 1932      4 26.12 IN 1898      4 34.67 IN 1960
5 14.90 IN 2003      5 24.53 IN 1906      5 33.71 IN 2015*
                                            33.71 IN 1925

* 2015 RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH AUGUST 29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  88  76  88  77 /  90  60  80  60
FMY  88  75  89  76 /  90  60  80  60
GIF  89  74  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SRQ  89  75  88  77 /  90  60  80  70
BKV  89  73  88  74 /  90  60  80  50
SPG  88  77  88  79 /  90  60  80  60

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-
     COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
     COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
     HIGHLANDS-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
     HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-
     INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER/CLIMATE...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KTAE 300806
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As seen vividly on WV imagery this morning, a +PV anomaly/upper
low spins over the far western panhandle of Florida. This
feature and its associated surface trough will be the primary
forcing mechanisms for convection across the region today. As of
07z, some showers can be found across southwest GA, along the
surface trough. As the upper low moves northeast through the
region today, the surface trough will shift east as well. This
will result in the bulk of our convective initiation this
afternoon occurring east of a line from Albany through
Tallahassee. Some heavy rain will be possible across the southeast
Big Bend and south-central Georgia where steering flow will run
parallel to the surface trough. Expect average rainfall amounts in
this area to be around an inch, with isolated totals between 2-4
inches. Late in the afternoon and early evening, some of the
storms may begin to drift back west as the influence of the upper
low diminishes and broad troughing across the Florida peninsula
moves north, turning steering flow more easterly. Highs today will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Monday] A scattering of MVFR and IFR ceilings are
present across the region this morning. Expect DHN, ABY, and VLD
to be most affected, though confidence is extremely low as to what
degree (MVFR or IFR). Skies should clear quite nicely at DHN and
possibly ECP this afternoon, with a scattered to broken VFR deck
further east. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely to impact
VLD later this afternoon, and possibly ABY in the evening.

&&

.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  70  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS



000
FXUS62 KTAE 300806
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As seen vividly on WV imagery this morning, a +PV anomaly/upper
low spins over the far western panhandle of Florida. This
feature and its associated surface trough will be the primary
forcing mechanisms for convection across the region today. As of
07z, some showers can be found across southwest GA, along the
surface trough. As the upper low moves northeast through the
region today, the surface trough will shift east as well. This
will result in the bulk of our convective initiation this
afternoon occurring east of a line from Albany through
Tallahassee. Some heavy rain will be possible across the southeast
Big Bend and south-central Georgia where steering flow will run
parallel to the surface trough. Expect average rainfall amounts in
this area to be around an inch, with isolated totals between 2-4
inches. Late in the afternoon and early evening, some of the
storms may begin to drift back west as the influence of the upper
low diminishes and broad troughing across the Florida peninsula
moves north, turning steering flow more easterly. Highs today will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Monday] A scattering of MVFR and IFR ceilings are
present across the region this morning. Expect DHN, ABY, and VLD
to be most affected, though confidence is extremely low as to what
degree (MVFR or IFR). Skies should clear quite nicely at DHN and
possibly ECP this afternoon, with a scattered to broken VFR deck
further east. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely to impact
VLD later this afternoon, and possibly ABY in the evening.

&&

.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  70  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS



000
FXUS62 KTAE 300806
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

As seen vividly on WV imagery this morning, a +PV anomaly/upper
low spins over the far western panhandle of Florida. This
feature and its associated surface trough will be the primary
forcing mechanisms for convection across the region today. As of
07z, some showers can be found across southwest GA, along the
surface trough. As the upper low moves northeast through the
region today, the surface trough will shift east as well. This
will result in the bulk of our convective initiation this
afternoon occurring east of a line from Albany through
Tallahassee. Some heavy rain will be possible across the southeast
Big Bend and south-central Georgia where steering flow will run
parallel to the surface trough. Expect average rainfall amounts in
this area to be around an inch, with isolated totals between 2-4
inches. Late in the afternoon and early evening, some of the
storms may begin to drift back west as the influence of the upper
low diminishes and broad troughing across the Florida peninsula
moves north, turning steering flow more easterly. Highs today will
be in the upper 80s to low 90s area-wide.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

The main forecast challenge in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe is how
the remnants of Erika evolve across the region. The aforementioned
+PV anomaly should have quickly exited northeast of the area by
tonight, with the western edge of a broad subtropical ridge
settling over the region into the early part of the upcoming week.
Therefore, the bubble of higher precipitable water values (2.2 to
2.5 inches), sampled by the evening Miami and Key West soundings
as well as GOES satellite, and any lingering vorticity maxima
should drift north toward our forecast area over the next couple
days. Complicating matters will be the eastward advection of drier
mid-level air over the north-central Gulf of Mexico as the +PV
anomaly lifts out and mid-upper level westerlies become better
established. Most available model guidance creates a very sharp
PWAT gradient across our forecast area in this time frame. East of
wherever the gradient sets up, locally heavy rain is possible.

This entire scenario could leave the western sections of our area
relatively dry and sunny, with eastern sections mostly cloudy with
fairly widespread showers. For now we have stayed fairly close to
a consensus approach on the location of this sharp moisture
gradient with the highest PoPs roughly east of a Tallahassee, to
Moultrie, to Fitzgerald line. It should be noted, though, that
small details could shift things enough to bring rainy conditions
into most of the forecast area, or to largely push it off to the
east. Confidence is also diminished given poor 00Z model
performance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida, where
6-hour model forecast MSLP errors are around +2mb over a fairly
large area. Therefore, it`s questionable whether models are
showing a strong enough wave drifting north into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, which affects the rest of the forecast.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

Models generally show more abundant low-mid level moisture
expanding westward to encompass the remainder of the forecast area
later in the week. Rain chances were kept around 40-50% during the
daytime hours for much of the extended forecast as a result. With
the possibility of precipitable water values exceeding 2 inches,
this could have probably been higher, but given lower than normal
confidence in model solutions we have stayed closer to the multi-
model consensus for now. Temperatures should be near normal.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Monday] A scattering of MVFR and IFR ceilings are
present across the region this morning. Expect DHN, ABY, and VLD
to be most affected, though confidence is extremely low as to what
degree (MVFR or IFR). Skies should clear quite nicely at DHN and
possibly ECP this afternoon, with a scattered to broken VFR deck
further east. Showers and thunderstorms are most likely to impact
VLD later this afternoon, and possibly ABY in the evening.

&&

.Marine...

An area of lower pressure should persist over the southern half of
the Gulf during the next couple days, which should lead to winds
generally from an easterly direction. Right now, winds are
expected to remain below SCEC levels, but there is a chance for
some periods of stronger winds that can`t be discounted. This will
be especially true if a low pressure wave moving into the eastern
Gulf ends up being more vigorous than models are expecting.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.Hydrology...

Through Tuesday, the best rain chances will exist over the eastern
part of the area, generally to the east of a Tallahassee to Albany
line. Some locally heavy rain will be possible in these areas,
with average rain totals on the order of 1-2 inches expected
(possibly closer to 2-3 inches around Dixie, Taylor, and Lafayette
counties in the eastern Florida Big Bend). Lower amounts are
expected to the west. Later in the week, rain chances will
increase over the western parts of the area with locally heavy
rainfall becoming possible over much of the area. Although
localized flooding will be possible as a result, flooding on main
rivers seems unlikely right now.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  74  91  73  89 /  30  20  30  20  40
Panama City   87  75  88  76  87 /  20  10  10  10  20
Dothan        88  70  91  71  91 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        88  72  90  70  88 /  50  20  30  10  30
Valdosta      89  72  88  72  87 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    90  74  87  74  87 /  70  50  60  30  60
Apalachicola  87  76  89  76  88 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300757
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...LOCALIZED FLOODING EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/VORT MAX
RIDING UP THE NE FL COAST IS ASSOCD WITH LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
SHIELD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM JAX NORTHWARD ACROSS COASTAL
SE GA AND EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTH OF BRUNSWICK BY
SUNRISE WITH A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND IN PCPN COVERAGE OVER LAND
AREAS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS FEATURE
ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST FROM FLAGLER COUNTY AROUND 11 PM TO
COASTAL SE GA AROUND 2-3 AM TIME FRAME.

TODAY...CUT OFF UPPER LOW NEAR PENSACOLA IN WRN FL PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTA THROUGH THE DAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MORNING HOURS MAY BE A BIT DRIER THAN MODELS DEPICTING WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE BUT ANY
LIMITED HEATING TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S WILL QUICKLY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND ATLC COASTAL WATERS WITH POPS IN THE 80-90% RANGE AND
LESSER POPS FURTHER INLD IN THE 50-70% RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY WHILE SOME STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
FURTHER INLAND ACRS INLD SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED AND MAX TEMPS MAY REACH CLOSE TO
90 DEGREES...WHILE THE ATLC COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

TONIGHT...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WILL FADE
SLOWLY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR/COASTAL COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AGAIN. 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO AN
INCH WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES IN STRONGER STORMS
AND TRAINING OF CELLS THAT OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED
NORTH INTO THE AREA AND MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN. WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
FAVOR THE SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS MAINLY AN OPEN
WAVE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS TO ABOVE
2.25 INCHES WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SATURATED COLUMN OF AIR
BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH
WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THUS WIDESPREAD NON
STOP HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY AVERAGE AROUND 2
TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL SUPPORT
MORE IN THE WAY OF A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT AS OPPOSED TO A
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENT. THUS WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. INCREASED COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THEN SHIFTING
INLAND EACH DAY. COASTAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME OVERNIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE
COAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM CONTINUES TO WRAP UP THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IN TO A WEAK BUT TIGHTLY CLOSED CIRCULATION DIRECTLY OVER OUR
AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WE ARE DISCOUNTING THIS SOLUTION...BUT THIS
IS THE TYPE OF SOLUTION WE WOULD NEED TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED FLOODING IN OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND SHOULD HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON IT LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE SEABREEZES. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHIELD IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KGNV
WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. THE RAINFALL SHOULD
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH MULTI-LAYER MVFR/VFR CLOUDS AND
VCSH SHOULD HOLD IN MOST OF THE TAF SETS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
EXCEPT FOR KSSI WHERE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
CONVECTION WILL SET UP...HAVE KEPT VCTS AT ALL TAF SETS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TODAY AND
EXPECT TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS SEAS
BUILD INTO THE 4-6 FT RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TUE/WED TIME FRAME AND
DECREASE IN SPEEDS WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIPS CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
WITH BREAKER REPORTS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: SATURDAY`S FULL MOON HIGH TIDAL CYCLES
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN ALL REMAINED JUST
BELOW COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS ON TODAYS HIGH
TIDAL CYCLES...SO NO STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...BUT DUE
TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF HEAVIER CONVECTION AT TIMES NO PLANS TO
ISSUE FLOOD WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. CONDITIONS ON BLACK
CREEK AND UPPER SANTA FE RIVER BASIN REMAIN ELEVATED BUT MISSED
OUT ON HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND WILL DEPEND ON ANY HEAVY
BANDS THAT SET UP TODAY OR INTO THIS WEEK TO SEE IF STAGES CAN
PUSH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  72  88  74 /  70  50  60  30
SSI  84  77  86  76 /  80  70  80  60
JAX  87  73  87  75 /  80  60  70  40
SGJ  87  75  87  75 /  90  70  80  50
GNV  88  73  87  73 /  80  50  70  30
OCF  89  73  87  73 /  90  60  80  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300757
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...LOCALIZED FLOODING EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/VORT MAX
RIDING UP THE NE FL COAST IS ASSOCD WITH LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
SHIELD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM JAX NORTHWARD ACROSS COASTAL
SE GA AND EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTH OF BRUNSWICK BY
SUNRISE WITH A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND IN PCPN COVERAGE OVER LAND
AREAS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS FEATURE
ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST FROM FLAGLER COUNTY AROUND 11 PM TO
COASTAL SE GA AROUND 2-3 AM TIME FRAME.

TODAY...CUT OFF UPPER LOW NEAR PENSACOLA IN WRN FL PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTA THROUGH THE DAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MORNING HOURS MAY BE A BIT DRIER THAN MODELS DEPICTING WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE BUT ANY
LIMITED HEATING TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S WILL QUICKLY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND ATLC COASTAL WATERS WITH POPS IN THE 80-90% RANGE AND
LESSER POPS FURTHER INLD IN THE 50-70% RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY WHILE SOME STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
FURTHER INLAND ACRS INLD SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED AND MAX TEMPS MAY REACH CLOSE TO
90 DEGREES...WHILE THE ATLC COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

TONIGHT...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WILL FADE
SLOWLY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR/COASTAL COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AGAIN. 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO AN
INCH WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES IN STRONGER STORMS
AND TRAINING OF CELLS THAT OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED
NORTH INTO THE AREA AND MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN. WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
FAVOR THE SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS MAINLY AN OPEN
WAVE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS TO ABOVE
2.25 INCHES WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SATURATED COLUMN OF AIR
BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH
WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THUS WIDESPREAD NON
STOP HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY AVERAGE AROUND 2
TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL SUPPORT
MORE IN THE WAY OF A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT AS OPPOSED TO A
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENT. THUS WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. INCREASED COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THEN SHIFTING
INLAND EACH DAY. COASTAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME OVERNIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE
COAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM CONTINUES TO WRAP UP THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IN TO A WEAK BUT TIGHTLY CLOSED CIRCULATION DIRECTLY OVER OUR
AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WE ARE DISCOUNTING THIS SOLUTION...BUT THIS
IS THE TYPE OF SOLUTION WE WOULD NEED TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED FLOODING IN OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND SHOULD HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON IT LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE SEABREEZES. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHIELD IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KGNV
WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. THE RAINFALL SHOULD
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH MULTI-LAYER MVFR/VFR CLOUDS AND
VCSH SHOULD HOLD IN MOST OF THE TAF SETS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
EXCEPT FOR KSSI WHERE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
CONVECTION WILL SET UP...HAVE KEPT VCTS AT ALL TAF SETS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TODAY AND
EXPECT TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS SEAS
BUILD INTO THE 4-6 FT RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TUE/WED TIME FRAME AND
DECREASE IN SPEEDS WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIPS CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
WITH BREAKER REPORTS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: SATURDAY`S FULL MOON HIGH TIDAL CYCLES
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN ALL REMAINED JUST
BELOW COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS ON TODAYS HIGH
TIDAL CYCLES...SO NO STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...BUT DUE
TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF HEAVIER CONVECTION AT TIMES NO PLANS TO
ISSUE FLOOD WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. CONDITIONS ON BLACK
CREEK AND UPPER SANTA FE RIVER BASIN REMAIN ELEVATED BUT MISSED
OUT ON HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND WILL DEPEND ON ANY HEAVY
BANDS THAT SET UP TODAY OR INTO THIS WEEK TO SEE IF STAGES CAN
PUSH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  72  88  74 /  70  50  60  30
SSI  84  77  86  76 /  80  70  80  60
JAX  87  73  87  75 /  80  60  70  40
SGJ  87  75  87  75 /  90  70  80  50
GNV  88  73  87  73 /  80  50  70  30
OCF  89  73  87  73 /  90  60  80  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300757
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...LOCALIZED FLOODING EXPECTED THIS WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/VORT MAX
RIDING UP THE NE FL COAST IS ASSOCD WITH LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN
SHIELD ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM JAX NORTHWARD ACROSS COASTAL
SE GA AND EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTH OF BRUNSWICK BY
SUNRISE WITH A SHARP DOWNWARD TREND IN PCPN COVERAGE OVER LAND
AREAS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS FEATURE
ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST FROM FLAGLER COUNTY AROUND 11 PM TO
COASTAL SE GA AROUND 2-3 AM TIME FRAME.

TODAY...CUT OFF UPPER LOW NEAR PENSACOLA IN WRN FL PANHANDLE
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS ATLANTA THROUGH THE DAY AND
THIS WILL KEEP A VERY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE
MORNING HOURS MAY BE A BIT DRIER THAN MODELS DEPICTING WITH SOME
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE BUT ANY
LIMITED HEATING TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S WILL QUICKLY
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND ATLC COASTAL WATERS WITH POPS IN THE 80-90% RANGE AND
LESSER POPS FURTHER INLD IN THE 50-70% RANGE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS THE MAIN IMPACT TODAY WHILE SOME STRONG STORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY
FURTHER INLAND ACRS INLD SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY WHERE
MORE DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED AND MAX TEMPS MAY REACH CLOSE TO
90 DEGREES...WHILE THE ATLC COASTAL COUNTIES WILL SEE OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

TONIGHT...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE ONGOING DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN WILL FADE
SLOWLY TOWARDS MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST
FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WILL KEEP BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUING
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR/COASTAL COUNTIES AND COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AGAIN. 24 HOUR
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSE TO AN
INCH WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES IN STRONGER STORMS
AND TRAINING OF CELLS THAT OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND TUESDAY/...

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FEED
NORTH INTO THE AREA AND MAINTAIN A WET PATTERN. WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
FAVOR THE SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS WHICH SHOW THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS MAINLY AN OPEN
WAVE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO OUR AREA.
DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN PWATS TO ABOVE
2.25 INCHES WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING A SATURATED COLUMN OF AIR
BOTH DAYS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVERAGE WHICH
WILL REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY. THUS WIDESPREAD NON
STOP HEAVY RAINFALL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LIKELY AVERAGE AROUND 2
TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED. THIS WILL SUPPORT
MORE IN THE WAY OF A LOCALIZED FLOOD THREAT AS OPPOSED TO A
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOOD EVENT. THUS WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING
ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME. INCREASED COASTAL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
SUPPORT THE HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THEN SHIFTING
INLAND EACH DAY. COASTAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH AT LEAST SOME OVERNIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE
COAST.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NAM CONTINUES TO WRAP UP THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IN TO A WEAK BUT TIGHTLY CLOSED CIRCULATION DIRECTLY OVER OUR
AREA ON MONDAY. FOR NOW WE ARE DISCOUNTING THIS SOLUTION...BUT THIS
IS THE TYPE OF SOLUTION WE WOULD NEED TO SUPPORT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED FLOODING IN OUR AREA. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION AND SHOULD HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON IT LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL PATTERN OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE SEABREEZES. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHIELD IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KGNV
WITH A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. THE RAINFALL SHOULD
TAPER OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH MULTI-LAYER MVFR/VFR CLOUDS AND
VCSH SHOULD HOLD IN MOST OF THE TAF SETS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
EXCEPT FOR KSSI WHERE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON...WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
CONVECTION WILL SET UP...HAVE KEPT VCTS AT ALL TAF SETS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES CLOSE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS LATER TODAY AND
EXPECT TO CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AS SEAS
BUILD INTO THE 4-6 FT RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
WEEK. FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY TUE/WED TIME FRAME AND
DECREASE IN SPEEDS WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIPS CONTINUES IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
WITH BREAKER REPORTS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: SATURDAY`S FULL MOON HIGH TIDAL CYCLES
ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN ALL REMAINED JUST
BELOW COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS AND EXPECT SIMILAR CONDS ON TODAYS HIGH
TIDAL CYCLES...SO NO STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK...BUT DUE
TO THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF HEAVIER CONVECTION AT TIMES NO PLANS TO
ISSUE FLOOD WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. CONDITIONS ON BLACK
CREEK AND UPPER SANTA FE RIVER BASIN REMAIN ELEVATED BUT MISSED
OUT ON HEAVIEST ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY AND WILL DEPEND ON ANY HEAVY
BANDS THAT SET UP TODAY OR INTO THIS WEEK TO SEE IF STAGES CAN
PUSH SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  72  88  74 /  70  50  60  30
SSI  84  77  86  76 /  80  70  80  60
JAX  87  73  87  75 /  80  60  70  40
SGJ  87  75  87  75 /  90  70  80  50
GNV  88  73  87  73 /  80  50  70  30
OCF  89  73  87  73 /  90  60  80  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300625
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A BREEZY EAST WIND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE VCTS
AND TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAFS, AS WELL AS PROB30 GROUPS FROM LATER IN
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

.FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
.SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  79  89  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
MIAMI            88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
NAPLES           88  77  89  76 /  80  70  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300625
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A BREEZY EAST WIND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE VCTS
AND TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAFS, AS WELL AS PROB30 GROUPS FROM LATER IN
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

.FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
.SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  79  89  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
MIAMI            88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
NAPLES           88  77  89  76 /  80  70  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300625
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A BREEZY EAST WIND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE VCTS
AND TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAFS, AS WELL AS PROB30 GROUPS FROM LATER IN
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

.FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
.SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  79  89  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
MIAMI            88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
NAPLES           88  77  89  76 /  80  70  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300625
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A BREEZY EAST WIND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE VCTS
AND TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAFS, AS WELL AS PROB30 GROUPS FROM LATER IN
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

.FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
.SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  79  89  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
MIAMI            88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
NAPLES           88  77  89  76 /  80  70  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300625
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A BREEZY EAST WIND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE VCTS
AND TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAFS, AS WELL AS PROB30 GROUPS FROM LATER IN
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

.FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
.SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  79  89  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
MIAMI            88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
NAPLES           88  77  89  76 /  80  70  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300625
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A BREEZY EAST WIND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE VCTS
AND TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAFS, AS WELL AS PROB30 GROUPS FROM LATER IN
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

.FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
.SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  79  89  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
MIAMI            88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
NAPLES           88  77  89  76 /  80  70  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KKEY 300153
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
953 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGEST AND MORE INTENSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FAVORED
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE SERVICE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A PROMINENT UPPER LOW IN
THE GULF. WEAKER AND MORE PULSING CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN GAINING SPEED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SERVICE AREA AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM ANY RAINFALL ARE IN THE MID 80S...AND ALL WIND
SENSORS ARE SLOWLY BUT STEADILY CLIMBING FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE. MIMIC IMAGERY OF PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM CIMSS
SHOWS EVEN HIGHER MOISTURE IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...BASICALLY THE
REMNANTS OF WHAT WAS ERIKA. ALTHOUGH A CYCLONIC GYRE CAN BE ANALYZED
AT LOWER LEVELS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...WE ARE EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN OVERALL WIND SPEEDS...FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
SERVICE AREA OVERNIGHT. AND...THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES AS WELL. BUT BASED ON THE CHARACTERISTIC OF
THE CONVECTION UPSTREAM...EXPECT A MORE EPISODIC NATURE TO THE FAST-
PACED ACTIVITY BOTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH SUNDAY.
WE DO EXPECT PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AND AREAS MORE NORMALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO POOR DRAINAGE. THE AFTERNOON ZONE ISSUANCE HAS THE
EXPECTED CONDITIONS COVERED. UNLESS THERE IS A DRASTIC CHANGE WITH
ONE OF THE SENSIBLE PARAMETERS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...NO ZONE
UPDATE IS PLANNED. IN ALL...EXPECT UNSETTLED AND AT LEAST BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON THE ACCELERATION AND TRACK OF ECHOES ON KBYX RADAR IN THE
SOUTHERN STRAITS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...PLAN TO EXPAND THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WESTWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE KEYS SERVICE AREA
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THOSE ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY...AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY MONDAY. BOATERS
AND OTHER MARINE INTERESTS CAN EXPECT OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF FAST-PACED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH THE KEY
WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE KEYS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING FAST-MOVING
SHOWERS...WITH SOME SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THEREFORE
MULTIPLE EPISODES OF BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
WITH PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 30 KNOTS OR HIGHER.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KJAX 300149
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY FADING OUT
INLAND BUT PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INTERACTING WITH INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOWLY WINDING
DOWN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TREND FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FADE
INLAND BUT MOIST AND UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HUGGING THE COAST WILL RESULT IN
OCNL TS WITH MVFR TIL AROUND 04Z. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR WITH
VCSH.

&&

.MARINE...STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF IT WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.


RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  77  82  75  86 /  60  70  70  80
JAX  75  86  74  87 /  60  70  40  70
SGJ  75  84  76  86 /  60  70  50  80
GNV  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  30  70
OCF  73  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/AE/RW



000
FXUS62 KJAX 300149
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY FADING OUT
INLAND BUT PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INTERACTING WITH INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOWLY WINDING
DOWN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TREND FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FADE
INLAND BUT MOIST AND UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HUGGING THE COAST WILL RESULT IN
OCNL TS WITH MVFR TIL AROUND 04Z. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR WITH
VCSH.

&&

.MARINE...STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF IT WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.


RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  77  82  75  86 /  60  70  70  80
JAX  75  86  74  87 /  60  70  40  70
SGJ  75  84  76  86 /  60  70  50  80
GNV  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  30  70
OCF  73  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/AE/RW




000
FXUS62 KJAX 300149
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY FADING OUT
INLAND BUT PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INTERACTING WITH INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOWLY WINDING
DOWN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TREND FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FADE
INLAND BUT MOIST AND UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HUGGING THE COAST WILL RESULT IN
OCNL TS WITH MVFR TIL AROUND 04Z. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR WITH
VCSH.

&&

.MARINE...STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF IT WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.


RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  77  82  75  86 /  60  70  70  80
JAX  75  86  74  87 /  60  70  40  70
SGJ  75  84  76  86 /  60  70  50  80
GNV  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  30  70
OCF  73  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/AE/RW



000
FXUS62 KJAX 300149
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
949 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY FADING OUT
INLAND BUT PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
INTERACTING WITH INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SLOWLY WINDING
DOWN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVING SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TREND FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO FADE
INLAND BUT MOIST AND UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HUGGING THE COAST WILL RESULT IN
OCNL TS WITH MVFR TIL AROUND 04Z. OTHERWISE PREVAILING VFR WITH
VCSH.

&&

.MARINE...STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF IT WILL PRODUCE AN ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT BUT NO
HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY EAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.


RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  77  82  75  86 /  60  70  70  80
JAX  75  86  74  87 /  60  70  40  70
SGJ  75  84  76  86 /  60  70  50  80
GNV  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  30  70
OCF  73  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

PP/AE/RW




000
FXUS62 KTBW 300146 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
946 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

.UPDATE...
A TROPICAL AIR MASS COMBINES WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION FROM THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...COLLIDING WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES ALONG THE INTERIOR
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. EXPECT STORMS TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE OBSERVED
TRENDS OF THE STORMS ENDING LATER AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.

SOME PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR HAVE SEEN WELL OVER 4 INCHES OF
RAIN AND COUNTING. THE GROUND IS SATURATED IN MANY PLACES AND
RIVERS/CREEKS/STREAMS ARE RESPONDING QUICKLY TO ANY RAINFALL IN
THEIR BASINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...BUT THE
TIMING AND GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT OF THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE TO FIT
THE EMERGING HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO PRESENT A
FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN COULD BRING
BRIEF IFR/LIFR TO THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND AGAIN
TOMORROW ONCE CONVECTION NEARS THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS ISSUANCE. REMNANTS OF
ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE GULF SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES. MARINERS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  85  76  87 /  40  90  60  80
FMY  76  84  76  88 /  40  90  70  80
GIF  76  84  74  88 /  40  90  60  80
SRQ  76  86  76  88 /  40  90  70  80
BKV  74  87  74  87 /  40  80  60  80
SPG  78  86  77  87 /  40  90  60  80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND
     CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
     LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
     PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...63/JILLSON
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR/HYDROLOGY...11/MCKAUGHAN




000
FXUS62 KTBW 300146 AAA
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
946 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

.UPDATE...
A TROPICAL AIR MASS COMBINES WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION FROM THE EAST COAST CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...COLLIDING WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES ALONG THE INTERIOR
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. EXPECT STORMS TO DIMINISH AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE OBSERVED
TRENDS OF THE STORMS ENDING LATER AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.

SOME PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR HAVE SEEN WELL OVER 4 INCHES OF
RAIN AND COUNTING. THE GROUND IS SATURATED IN MANY PLACES AND
RIVERS/CREEKS/STREAMS ARE RESPONDING QUICKLY TO ANY RAINFALL IN
THEIR BASINS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...BUT THE
TIMING AND GEOGRAPHIC EXTENT OF THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUE TO FIT
THE EMERGING HEAVY RAIN/FLOOD THREAT WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO PRESENT A
FORECAST CHALLENGE AT THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR...THOUGH HEAVY RAIN COULD BRING
BRIEF IFR/LIFR TO THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND AGAIN
TOMORROW ONCE CONVECTION NEARS THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS ISSUANCE. REMNANTS OF
ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE GULF SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES. MARINERS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT WILL LIKELY EVOLVE QUICKLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  85  76  87 /  40  90  60  80
FMY  76  84  76  88 /  40  90  70  80
GIF  76  84  74  88 /  40  90  60  80
SRQ  76  86  76  88 /  40  90  70  80
BKV  74  87  74  87 /  40  80  60  80
SPG  78  86  77  87 /  40  90  60  80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND
     CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
     LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
     PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...02/GARCIA
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...63/JILLSON
DATA COLLECTION/UPPER AIR/HYDROLOGY...11/MCKAUGHAN



000
FXUS62 KMLB 300053
AFDMLB

- KMIA 300001
WRKSTF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH MONDAY...

CURRENT-REST OF TONIGHT...FAST MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH OR MORE OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCED MEASURED
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AT THE SOUTHERN BREVARD COASTAL AREAS. THE
MELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR WAS DETECTING VELOCITIES TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS
BETWEEN A 1000 AND 2000 FEET OF THE SURFACE. THE WINDS DIMINISHED A
LITTLE AS THEY MOVED INLAND BUT WERE STILL GUSTING OVER 30 MPH JUST
WEST OF THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON IN BREVARD COUNTY. RADARS STILL
DETECTING MORE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF THE COAST FROM VERO
BEACH SOUTH MOVING TOWARD THE SHORE AT AROUND 25 MPH. THE HRRR MODEL
IS SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...COMING ASHORE AND REACHING WELL INLAND
BEFORE DIMINISHING THE WHOLE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS ZONE DISCUSSION

TONIGHT...SURFACE-850 MB SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS AS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL FAVOR CONVERGENCE LINES OFF THE BAHAMAS
AND SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE ONCE LINGERING DEBRIS
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED STORMS END THIS EVENING...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST...WITH POPS 50-60 PERCENT AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO MOS VALUES.

SUN...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2.25 INCHES WILL ENCOMPASS THE
AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF. INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
GULF....WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z GFS POPS 80-100 PERCENT AND 12
HOUR QPF VALUES 2 INCHES OR GREATER. THINK THAT THE HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AS MODEST HEATING OCCURS THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

SUN NIGHT...WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE AND STILL BREEZY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE QUITE HIGH AND HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS POPS WHICH WERE 60
PERCENT.

MON...THE GFS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHING FARTHER
OUT INTO THE GULF AROUND 86W. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS/CONVERGENCE
WILL WEAKEN UNDER THIS SCENARIO...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO
DECREASES...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER 2.25 INCHES OR GREATER IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE LIKELY POPS INDICATED BY THE MOS
AND INCLUDED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK GOOD. THE THREAT OF
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE. GFS MODEL AMOUNTS FOR THE SUN-MON
PERIOD ARE 1-3 INCHES AREAWIDE...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2.25 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 3-5 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

TUE-FRI...REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH FROM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OR GRADUALLY WASH OUT.
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND NORTH OF THE REGION AND
CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH MORE TYPICAL LIGHTER
SPEEDS THOUGH. MOISTURE LOOKS ELEVATED WITH LAPSE RATES RATHER
AVERAGE. EXPECT A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION... FAST MOVING IFR SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KNOTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT KDED-KSFB-KISM-KOBE EAST. SPEED OF
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WAY TOO FAST FOR TEMPO GROUPS OVER
AN HOURS.


PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SCT TSRA FROM KMCO-KDED WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM KLEE-KISM INTO EARLY
EVENING. HRRR INDICATES SOME CONVECTION MAY PUSH BACK TO KSFB-KMCO
CORRIDOR INTO LATE EVENING WITH MID LVL SW FLOW. SCATTERED ATLC
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ONSHORE FROM KMLB-KSUA
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO SHRA EXPECTED FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
PROGRESSING INTO THE INTERIOR BY LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VSBYS PSBL WITH +SHRA/+TSRA IN CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE... CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA/SCRIPPS BUOYS RECORDING EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS JUST OFF THE
BEACH AND TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO THE NORTH. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BOATERS AND SHIP OPERATORS WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR FAST MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF
GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH FROM REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE MORE WIND
CHOP SO CONDITIONS STARTING OUT SUNDAY LOOK POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT
OVER ALL OF THE WATERS.

SUN-MON...THE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK POOR WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. OUTSIDE
THE CONVECTION...GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM ABOUT
THE CAPE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK CLOSER
TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  86  76  86 /  30  70  60  70
MCO  76  89  75  89 /  30  70  50  70
MLB  78  87  77  88 /  30  80  60  70
VRB  78  88  77  88 /  40  80  60  70
LEE  76  92  75  89 /  30  70  40  60
SFB  76  88  75  89 /  30  70  50  70
ORL  76  88  75  88 /  30  70  50  70
FPR  78  89  77  89 /  40  80  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PENDERGRAST/ULRICH/WIMMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 300053
AFDMLB

- KMIA 300001
WRKSTF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
850 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH MONDAY...

CURRENT-REST OF TONIGHT...FAST MOVING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH OR MORE OVER
THE ATLANTIC. THE FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCED MEASURED
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AT THE SOUTHERN BREVARD COASTAL AREAS. THE
MELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR WAS DETECTING VELOCITIES TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS
BETWEEN A 1000 AND 2000 FEET OF THE SURFACE. THE WINDS DIMINISHED A
LITTLE AS THEY MOVED INLAND BUT WERE STILL GUSTING OVER 30 MPH JUST
WEST OF THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON IN BREVARD COUNTY. RADARS STILL
DETECTING MORE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF THE COAST FROM VERO
BEACH SOUTH MOVING TOWARD THE SHORE AT AROUND 25 MPH. THE HRRR MODEL
IS SUGGESTING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...COMING ASHORE AND REACHING WELL INLAND
BEFORE DIMINISHING THE WHOLE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS ZONE DISCUSSION

TONIGHT...SURFACE-850 MB SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS AS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL FAVOR CONVERGENCE LINES OFF THE BAHAMAS
AND SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE ONCE LINGERING DEBRIS
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED STORMS END THIS EVENING...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST...WITH POPS 50-60 PERCENT AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO MOS VALUES.

SUN...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2.25 INCHES WILL ENCOMPASS THE
AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF. INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
GULF....WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z GFS POPS 80-100 PERCENT AND 12
HOUR QPF VALUES 2 INCHES OR GREATER. THINK THAT THE HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AS MODEST HEATING OCCURS THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

SUN NIGHT...WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE AND STILL BREEZY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE QUITE HIGH AND HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS POPS WHICH WERE 60
PERCENT.

MON...THE GFS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHING FARTHER
OUT INTO THE GULF AROUND 86W. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS/CONVERGENCE
WILL WEAKEN UNDER THIS SCENARIO...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO
DECREASES...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER 2.25 INCHES OR GREATER IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE LIKELY POPS INDICATED BY THE MOS
AND INCLUDED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK GOOD. THE THREAT OF
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE. GFS MODEL AMOUNTS FOR THE SUN-MON
PERIOD ARE 1-3 INCHES AREAWIDE...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2.25 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 3-5 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

TUE-FRI...REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH FROM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OR GRADUALLY WASH OUT.
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND NORTH OF THE REGION AND
CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH MORE TYPICAL LIGHTER
SPEEDS THOUGH. MOISTURE LOOKS ELEVATED WITH LAPSE RATES RATHER
AVERAGE. EXPECT A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION... FAST MOVING IFR SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 KNOTS THE REST OF THE NIGHT KDED-KSFB-KISM-KOBE EAST. SPEED OF
THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WAY TOO FAST FOR TEMPO GROUPS OVER
AN HOURS.


PREVIOUS AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SCT TSRA FROM KMCO-KDED WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO LATE AFTERNOON WITH
ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM KLEE-KISM INTO EARLY
EVENING. HRRR INDICATES SOME CONVECTION MAY PUSH BACK TO KSFB-KMCO
CORRIDOR INTO LATE EVENING WITH MID LVL SW FLOW. SCATTERED ATLC
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ONSHORE FROM KMLB-KSUA
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO SHRA EXPECTED FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS
PROGRESSING INTO THE INTERIOR BY LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. MVFR CIGS
AND IFR VSBYS PSBL WITH +SHRA/+TSRA IN CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE... CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...NOAA/SCRIPPS BUOYS RECORDING EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS JUST OFF THE
BEACH AND TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE INDICATING WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTH AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO THE NORTH. SMALL
CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS CAPE CANAVERAL
SOUTH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BOATERS AND SHIP OPERATORS WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR FAST MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF
GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS.

PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION

TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH FROM REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR EXERCISE
CAUTION CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE MORE WIND
CHOP SO CONDITIONS STARTING OUT SUNDAY LOOK POOR FOR SMALL CRAFT
OVER ALL OF THE WATERS.

SUN-MON...THE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK POOR WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. OUTSIDE
THE CONVECTION...GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM ABOUT
THE CAPE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK CLOSER
TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  86  76  86 /  30  70  60  70
MCO  76  89  75  89 /  30  70  50  70
MLB  78  87  77  88 /  30  80  60  70
VRB  78  88  77  88 /  40  80  60  70
LEE  76  92  75  89 /  30  70  40  60
SFB  76  88  75  89 /  30  70  50  70
ORL  76  88  75  88 /  30  70  50  70
FPR  78  89  77  89 /  40  80  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

PENDERGRAST/ULRICH/WIMMER



000
FXUS62 KTAE 300041
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Convection is gradually weakening this evening. However, given the
upper trough west of the area, isolated to scattered showers
will be possible through the overnight hours with the greatest
concentration over the northwest portions of the area. Overnight
lows are expected to range from the upper 60s in the northwest
part of the area to the mid 70s across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Monday] Some MVFR to IFR conditions are possible late
tonight with low cigs and a bit of fog expected. Scattered
convection is expected for Sunday afternoon with most activity
concentrated closest to VLD and less activity near DHN and ECP.

&&

.Prev Discussion [342 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will lift from the the Florida Panhandle
coastline toward northeast Georgia and weaken through the day
Sunday. Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
focused east of this anomaly where deep layer steering will remain
southerly, bringing in a plume of warm, moist Gulf air. With
persistent cloud cover, instability will be capped fairly low, with
CAPE around 1000-1300 J/kg, but the 0-6 km wind shear values
tomorrow afternoon will be quite high for August, around 40 kts.
Forcing Sunday will be weak and mostly due to a combination of the
afternoon seabreeze and enhanced divergence aloft. In the lower CAPE-
high shear environment tomorrow, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday will still be focused
on our eastern zones, but with lower shear values, the main threat
will be continued heavy rain. Temperatures will peak in the upper
80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures to the east
where rain chances and cloud cover are highest. Overnight lows will
stay in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Weak high pressure to the east will likely steer the remnants of
Erika north through the eastern Gulf and into our forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds over the waters may increase a bit,
but will remain below tropical storm strength. The main impact
expected to the area is rainfall, particularly over the eastern half
of our forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
gradually lower heading into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.


.Marine...

Winds will approach cautionary levels Monday night through Tuesday
over the eastern coastal waters as the remnants of Erika move
northward. Waves are expected to stay around 1 to 2 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the period with the highest
chances over the eastern waters. Some of these thunderstorms may
produce locally stronger winds and higher waves.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days with high relative humidity values and rain chances.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall over the next three days will likely add up to totals
around 2-3" across the eastern half of the forecast area, with lower
totals around 1-2" possible to the west. Depending on how the
remnants of Erika track, totals may be even higher, potentially
around 5-7" across eastern portions of our area. Localized flooding
is possible over the next few days east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, but at this time river flooding
potential is low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  92  73  91  74 /  40  40  20  60  30
Panama City   73  89  75  88  76 /  20  10  10  40  20
Dothan        69  90  70  91  72 /  60  30  10  30  20
Albany        71  90  72  90  72 /  50  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  90  71  89  73 /  40  60  20  60  30
Cross City    73  90  74  88  74 /  30  60  30  70  30
Apalachicola  73  89  76  89  77 /  30  20  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 300041
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
841 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Convection is gradually weakening this evening. However, given the
upper trough west of the area, isolated to scattered showers
will be possible through the overnight hours with the greatest
concentration over the northwest portions of the area. Overnight
lows are expected to range from the upper 60s in the northwest
part of the area to the mid 70s across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00z Monday] Some MVFR to IFR conditions are possible late
tonight with low cigs and a bit of fog expected. Scattered
convection is expected for Sunday afternoon with most activity
concentrated closest to VLD and less activity near DHN and ECP.

&&

.Prev Discussion [342 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will lift from the the Florida Panhandle
coastline toward northeast Georgia and weaken through the day
Sunday. Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
focused east of this anomaly where deep layer steering will remain
southerly, bringing in a plume of warm, moist Gulf air. With
persistent cloud cover, instability will be capped fairly low, with
CAPE around 1000-1300 J/kg, but the 0-6 km wind shear values
tomorrow afternoon will be quite high for August, around 40 kts.
Forcing Sunday will be weak and mostly due to a combination of the
afternoon seabreeze and enhanced divergence aloft. In the lower CAPE-
high shear environment tomorrow, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday will still be focused
on our eastern zones, but with lower shear values, the main threat
will be continued heavy rain. Temperatures will peak in the upper
80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures to the east
where rain chances and cloud cover are highest. Overnight lows will
stay in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Weak high pressure to the east will likely steer the remnants of
Erika north through the eastern Gulf and into our forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds over the waters may increase a bit,
but will remain below tropical storm strength. The main impact
expected to the area is rainfall, particularly over the eastern half
of our forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
gradually lower heading into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.


.Marine...

Winds will approach cautionary levels Monday night through Tuesday
over the eastern coastal waters as the remnants of Erika move
northward. Waves are expected to stay around 1 to 2 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the period with the highest
chances over the eastern waters. Some of these thunderstorms may
produce locally stronger winds and higher waves.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days with high relative humidity values and rain chances.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall over the next three days will likely add up to totals
around 2-3" across the eastern half of the forecast area, with lower
totals around 1-2" possible to the west. Depending on how the
remnants of Erika track, totals may be even higher, potentially
around 5-7" across eastern portions of our area. Localized flooding
is possible over the next few days east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, but at this time river flooding
potential is low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  92  73  91  74 /  40  40  20  60  30
Panama City   73  89  75  88  76 /  20  10  10  40  20
Dothan        69  90  70  91  72 /  60  30  10  30  20
Albany        71  90  72  90  72 /  50  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  90  71  89  73 /  40  60  20  60  30
Cross City    73  90  74  88  74 /  30  60  30  70  30
Apalachicola  73  89  76  89  77 /  30  20  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300015
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCSH AT 00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH WITH PASSING SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. AROUND 06Z AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THUS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AT 06Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION WINDS AROUND 06Z EXPECTED TO BE IN 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
..SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  80  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
MIAMI            92  79  88  79 /  50  80  90  70
NAPLES           94  77  88  77 /  70  40  80  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300015
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCSH AT 00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH WITH PASSING SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. AROUND 06Z AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THUS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AT 06Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION WINDS AROUND 06Z EXPECTED TO BE IN 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
..SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  80  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
MIAMI            92  79  88  79 /  50  80  90  70
NAPLES           94  77  88  77 /  70  40  80  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300015
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCSH AT 00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH WITH PASSING SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. AROUND 06Z AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THUS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AT 06Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION WINDS AROUND 06Z EXPECTED TO BE IN 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
..SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  80  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
MIAMI            92  79  88  79 /  50  80  90  70
NAPLES           94  77  88  77 /  70  40  80  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...60/BD



000
FXUS62 KMFL 300015
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCSH AT 00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH WITH PASSING SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. AROUND 06Z AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THUS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AT 06Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION WINDS AROUND 06Z EXPECTED TO BE IN 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
..SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  80  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
MIAMI            92  79  88  79 /  50  80  90  70
NAPLES           94  77  88  77 /  70  40  80  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 292037
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  88  79  89 /  80  90  70  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  88  79  89 /  80  90  70  60
MIAMI            79  88  79  89 /  80  90  70  60
NAPLES           77  88  77  89 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-
     066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 292037
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  88  79  89 /  80  90  70  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  88  79  89 /  80  90  70  60
MIAMI            79  88  79  89 /  80  90  70  60
NAPLES           77  88  77  89 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-
     066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB



000
FXUS62 KMLB 292010
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
410 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH MONDAY...

TONIGHT...SURFACE-850 MB SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS AS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL FAVOR CONVERGENCE LINES OFF THE BAHAMAS
AND SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE ONCE LINGERING DEBRIS
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED STORMS END THIS EVENING...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST...WITH POPS 50-60 PERCENT AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO MOS VALUES.

SUN...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2.25 INCHES WILL ENCOMPASS THE
AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF. INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
GULF....WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z GFS POPS 80-100 PERCENT AND 12
HOUR QPF VALUES 2 INCHES OR GREATER. THINK THAT THE HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AS MODEST HEATING OCCURS THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

SUN NIGHT...WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE AND STILL BREEZY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE QUITE HIGH AND HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS POPS WHICH WERE 60
PERCENT.

MON...THE GFS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHING FARTHER
OUT INTO THE GULF AROUND 86W. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS/CONVERGENCE
WILL WEAKEN UNDER THIS SCENARIO...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO
DECREASES...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER 2.25 INCHES OR GREATER IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE LIKELY POPS INDICATED BY THE MOS
AND INCLUDED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK GOOD. THE THREAT OF
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE. GFS MODEL AMOUNTS FOR THE SUN-MON
PERIOD ARE 1-3 INCHES AREAWIDE...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2.25 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 3-5 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

TUE-FRI...REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH FROM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OR GRADUALLY WASH OUT.
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND NORTH OF THE REGION AND
CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH MORE TYPICAL LIGHTER
SPEEDS THOUGH. MOISTURE LOOKS ELEVATED WITH LAPSE RATES RATHER
AVERAGE. EXPECT A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA FROM KMCO-KDED WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM KLEE-
KISM INTO EARLY EVENING. HRRR INDICATES SOME CONVECTION MAY PUSH
BACK TO KSFB-KMCO CORRIDOR INTO LATE EVENING WITH MID LVL SW FLOW.
SCATTERED ATLC SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ONSHORE
FROM KMLB-KSUA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO SHRA EXPECTED FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS PROGRESSING INTO THE INTERIOR BY LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. MVFR
CIGS AND IFR VSBYS PSBL WITH +SHRA/+TSRA IN CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN AS LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTS INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE WIND CHOP SO CONDITIONS STARTING OUT SUNDAY LOOK POOR FOR
SMALL CRAFT OVER ALL OF THE WATERS.

SUN-MON...THE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK POOR WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. OUTSIDE
THE CONVECTION...GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM ABOUT
THE CAPE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK CLOSER
TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  86  76  86 /  30  70  60  70
MCO  76  89  75  89 /  30  70  50  70
MLB  78  87  77  88 /  30  80  60  70
VRB  78  88  77  88 /  40  80  60  70
LEE  76  92  75  89 /  30  70  40  60
SFB  76  88  75  89 /  30  70  50  70
ORL  76  88  75  88 /  30  70  50  70
FPR  78  89  77  89 /  40  80  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK



000
FXUS62 KMLB 292010
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
410 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH MONDAY...

TONIGHT...SURFACE-850 MB SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS AS THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM ERIKA MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL FAVOR CONVERGENCE LINES OFF THE BAHAMAS
AND SOME COASTAL CONVERGENCE. THEREFORE ONCE LINGERING DEBRIS
RAINFALL AND SCATTERED STORMS END THIS EVENING...THERE WILL BE A
GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THE
LATEST GFS SHOWS THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST...WITH POPS 50-60 PERCENT AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO MOS VALUES.

SUN...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2.25 INCHES WILL ENCOMPASS THE
AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF. INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO THE TROUGH...COMBINED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE
GULF....WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND A THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAIN. THIS IS EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z GFS POPS 80-100 PERCENT AND 12
HOUR QPF VALUES 2 INCHES OR GREATER. THINK THAT THE HEAVY RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING THEN TRANSITION TO
THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AS MODEST HEATING OCCURS THROUGH
LATE MORNING.

SUN NIGHT...WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE AND STILL BREEZY LOW LEVEL
WINDS...THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL
CONTINUE QUITE HIGH AND HAVE KEPT PREVIOUS POPS WHICH WERE 60
PERCENT.

MON...THE GFS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH PUSHING FARTHER
OUT INTO THE GULF AROUND 86W. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS/CONVERGENCE
WILL WEAKEN UNDER THIS SCENARIO...AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALSO
DECREASES...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER 2.25 INCHES OR GREATER IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE LIKELY POPS INDICATED BY THE MOS
AND INCLUDED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK GOOD. THE THREAT OF
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE. GFS MODEL AMOUNTS FOR THE SUN-MON
PERIOD ARE 1-3 INCHES AREAWIDE...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE.
HOWEVER...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 2.25 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS 3-5 INCHES ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

TUE-FRI...REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH FROM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO OR GRADUALLY WASH OUT.
ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND NORTH OF THE REGION AND
CONTINUE A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH MORE TYPICAL LIGHTER
SPEEDS THOUGH. MOISTURE LOOKS ELEVATED WITH LAPSE RATES RATHER
AVERAGE. EXPECT A RETURN TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA FROM KMCO-KDED WILL MOVE WESTWARD INTO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM KLEE-
KISM INTO EARLY EVENING. HRRR INDICATES SOME CONVECTION MAY PUSH
BACK TO KSFB-KMCO CORRIDOR INTO LATE EVENING WITH MID LVL SW FLOW.
SCATTERED ATLC SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE ONSHORE
FROM KMLB-KSUA OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPO SHRA EXPECTED FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS PROGRESSING INTO THE INTERIOR BY LATE MORNING ON SUNDAY. MVFR
CIGS AND IFR VSBYS PSBL WITH +SHRA/+TSRA IN CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN AS LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTS INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE WIND CHOP SO CONDITIONS STARTING OUT SUNDAY LOOK POOR FOR
SMALL CRAFT OVER ALL OF THE WATERS.

SUN-MON...THE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK POOR WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS. OUTSIDE
THE CONVECTION...GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT EXERCISE CAUTION FROM ABOUT
THE CAPE SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY.

TUE-WED...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BUT SPEEDS LOOK CLOSER
TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  86  76  86 /  30  70  60  70
MCO  76  89  75  89 /  30  70  50  70
MLB  78  87  77  88 /  30  80  60  70
VRB  78  88  77  88 /  40  80  60  70
LEE  76  92  75  89 /  30  70  40  60
SFB  76  88  75  89 /  30  70  50  70
ORL  76  88  75  88 /  30  70  50  70
FPR  78  89  77  89 /  40  80  60  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
     INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
     COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ST.
     LUCIE.

AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK




000
FXUS62 KJAX 292002
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE FL. MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS FAR INLAND SECTIONS AS A SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THESE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION MERGING ACROSS INLAND NE FL LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. THUS...WILL MAXIMIZE POPS WITH NUMEROUS POPS
THERE...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF SE GA. LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH...BUT
SOME POTENTIAL OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/WESTERN GA BY SUNDAY AFTN. WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING SLIGHTLY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS BY AFTN. NAM IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE PRODUCING
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL FL. WILL
TEMPER THAT SOLUTION DOWN A BIT...MAXIMIZING POPS IN THE 70
PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR NE FL
TO AROUND 90 FOR INTERIOR SE GA WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP COVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ERIKA`S REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FL KEYS ON
SUNDAY  EVENING...AND SHOULD BE STEERED N-NW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC RIDGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED NORTHWARD AS S-SE
FLOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS...WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES AND APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. NUMEROUS EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL WANE AND SHIFT IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S.

AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
MON...OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE INTO OUR REGION...WITH COASTAL
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CLOUD
COVER AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT...WITH MUCH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL WHERE HEAVIER ECHOES POTENTIALLY TRAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT...DEPENDENT
ON HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTIVE BANDING BECOMES AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MON EVENING. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FL COUNTIES IF WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS ARE
SUBSTANTIAL. THE ORGANIZATION OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS WILL ALSO
DETERMINE HOW DIURNAL OUR CONVECTION IS HEADING INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS ON MON NIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO FEED
BANDS INTO OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD REQURE US TO SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE
POPS FROM OUR CURRENT DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA TUES AND WED...RESULTING IN WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS
LOCALLY THAT MAY KEEP ERIKA`S REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS IN THE FORECAST ON A
DIURNAL BASIS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A
BRIEF DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS BY LATE WED THROUGH THURS...BUT THEN
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MAY APPROACH
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS MOST SUGGESTED
BY THE 12Z ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING IN PLACE
LOCALLY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POPS OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH SCATTERED
POPS FOR SOUTHEAST GA. PLENTY OF CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND BACK TOWARDS 90
AT INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WEEK...DEPENDENT ON HOW EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EACH DAY. PLENTY OF HUMIDITY WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE 70S REGION-WIDE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING IN SHWRS/TSTMS. FOR LATE EVENING ONWARD...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...WITH CAUTION
LEVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY OFFSHORE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  77  82  75  86 /  50  70  70  80
JAX  75  86  74  87 /  50  70  40  70
SGJ  75  84  76  86 /  50  70  50  80
GNV  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  30  70
OCF  73  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KJAX 292002
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE FL. MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS FAR INLAND SECTIONS AS A SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THESE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION MERGING ACROSS INLAND NE FL LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. THUS...WILL MAXIMIZE POPS WITH NUMEROUS POPS
THERE...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF SE GA. LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH...BUT
SOME POTENTIAL OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/WESTERN GA BY SUNDAY AFTN. WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING SLIGHTLY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS BY AFTN. NAM IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE PRODUCING
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL FL. WILL
TEMPER THAT SOLUTION DOWN A BIT...MAXIMIZING POPS IN THE 70
PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR NE FL
TO AROUND 90 FOR INTERIOR SE GA WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP COVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ERIKA`S REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FL KEYS ON
SUNDAY  EVENING...AND SHOULD BE STEERED N-NW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC RIDGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED NORTHWARD AS S-SE
FLOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS...WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES AND APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. NUMEROUS EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL WANE AND SHIFT IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S.

AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
MON...OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE INTO OUR REGION...WITH COASTAL
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CLOUD
COVER AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT...WITH MUCH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL WHERE HEAVIER ECHOES POTENTIALLY TRAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT...DEPENDENT
ON HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTIVE BANDING BECOMES AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MON EVENING. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FL COUNTIES IF WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS ARE
SUBSTANTIAL. THE ORGANIZATION OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS WILL ALSO
DETERMINE HOW DIURNAL OUR CONVECTION IS HEADING INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS ON MON NIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO FEED
BANDS INTO OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD REQURE US TO SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE
POPS FROM OUR CURRENT DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA TUES AND WED...RESULTING IN WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS
LOCALLY THAT MAY KEEP ERIKA`S REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS IN THE FORECAST ON A
DIURNAL BASIS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A
BRIEF DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS BY LATE WED THROUGH THURS...BUT THEN
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MAY APPROACH
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS MOST SUGGESTED
BY THE 12Z ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING IN PLACE
LOCALLY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POPS OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH SCATTERED
POPS FOR SOUTHEAST GA. PLENTY OF CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND BACK TOWARDS 90
AT INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WEEK...DEPENDENT ON HOW EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EACH DAY. PLENTY OF HUMIDITY WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE 70S REGION-WIDE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING IN SHWRS/TSTMS. FOR LATE EVENING ONWARD...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...WITH CAUTION
LEVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY OFFSHORE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  77  82  75  86 /  50  70  70  80
JAX  75  86  74  87 /  50  70  40  70
SGJ  75  84  76  86 /  50  70  50  80
GNV  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  30  70
OCF  73  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KJAX 292002
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE FL. MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS FAR INLAND SECTIONS AS A SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THESE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION MERGING ACROSS INLAND NE FL LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. THUS...WILL MAXIMIZE POPS WITH NUMEROUS POPS
THERE...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF SE GA. LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH...BUT
SOME POTENTIAL OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/WESTERN GA BY SUNDAY AFTN. WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING SLIGHTLY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS BY AFTN. NAM IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE PRODUCING
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL FL. WILL
TEMPER THAT SOLUTION DOWN A BIT...MAXIMIZING POPS IN THE 70
PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR NE FL
TO AROUND 90 FOR INTERIOR SE GA WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP COVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ERIKA`S REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FL KEYS ON
SUNDAY  EVENING...AND SHOULD BE STEERED N-NW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC RIDGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED NORTHWARD AS S-SE
FLOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS...WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES AND APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. NUMEROUS EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL WANE AND SHIFT IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S.

AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
MON...OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE INTO OUR REGION...WITH COASTAL
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CLOUD
COVER AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT...WITH MUCH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL WHERE HEAVIER ECHOES POTENTIALLY TRAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT...DEPENDENT
ON HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTIVE BANDING BECOMES AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MON EVENING. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FL COUNTIES IF WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS ARE
SUBSTANTIAL. THE ORGANIZATION OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS WILL ALSO
DETERMINE HOW DIURNAL OUR CONVECTION IS HEADING INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS ON MON NIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO FEED
BANDS INTO OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD REQURE US TO SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE
POPS FROM OUR CURRENT DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA TUES AND WED...RESULTING IN WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS
LOCALLY THAT MAY KEEP ERIKA`S REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS IN THE FORECAST ON A
DIURNAL BASIS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A
BRIEF DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS BY LATE WED THROUGH THURS...BUT THEN
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MAY APPROACH
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS MOST SUGGESTED
BY THE 12Z ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING IN PLACE
LOCALLY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POPS OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH SCATTERED
POPS FOR SOUTHEAST GA. PLENTY OF CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND BACK TOWARDS 90
AT INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WEEK...DEPENDENT ON HOW EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EACH DAY. PLENTY OF HUMIDITY WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE 70S REGION-WIDE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING IN SHWRS/TSTMS. FOR LATE EVENING ONWARD...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...WITH CAUTION
LEVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY OFFSHORE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  77  82  75  86 /  50  70  70  80
JAX  75  86  74  87 /  50  70  40  70
SGJ  75  84  76  86 /  50  70  50  80
GNV  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  30  70
OCF  73  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON/WALSH




000
FXUS62 KKEY 292002
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AS WE TRANSITION TO A MORE MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS IN PART TO THE IMPENDING APPROACH OF WHAT IT WAS
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...NOW DEGENERATED TO AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CONDITIONS WILL START
TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS SQUALLY WEATHER START REACHING THE FLORIDA
KEYS WATERS. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE OF WINDS AND
WAVES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLY WEATHER. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...WILL BE
OBSERVED ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...URBAN FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FROM THE 12Z GFS RUN...THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPEED UP WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO...DECREASING TO BELOW 10 KNOTS FROM WEDNESDAY ON. AT
THE SAME TIME...A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD...LOCATING ITSELF OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...KEEPING
WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK. A
WET...MORE NORMAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED TO
ALSO STAY IN PLACE THIS WEEK. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN BUMP UP
REFLECTING A MORE CLIMO APPROACH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERIODS OF FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES ARE LIKELY...ALONG WITH SQUALLY WEATHER. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL EXPAND TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN WAKE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY...AND PERSIST THERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 30/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING FAST-MOVING SHOWERS...WITH SOME SQUALLS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MULTIPLE EPISODES OF INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 30/00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH
NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXTREME
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS GUSTING LOCALLY 20-30 KNOTS.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 292002
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AS WE TRANSITION TO A MORE MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THIS IN PART TO THE IMPENDING APPROACH OF WHAT IT WAS
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...NOW DEGENERATED TO AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH INCREASING WINDS AND WAVES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...CONDITIONS WILL START
TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS SQUALLY WEATHER START REACHING THE FLORIDA
KEYS WATERS. THESE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE OF WINDS AND
WAVES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLY WEATHER. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...WILL BE
OBSERVED ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THEREFORE...URBAN FLOODING IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE ARE LIKELY TO
OCCUR.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FROM THE 12Z GFS RUN...THIS
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPEED UP WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW SUNDAY. WINDS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THIS WAVE MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO...DECREASING TO BELOW 10 KNOTS FROM WEDNESDAY ON. AT
THE SAME TIME...A HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT
WESTWARD...LOCATING ITSELF OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...KEEPING
WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF WEEK. A
WET...MORE NORMAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS EXPECTED TO
ALSO STAY IN PLACE THIS WEEK. THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN BUMP UP
REFLECTING A MORE CLIMO APPROACH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. PERIODS OF FRESH TO
STRONG BREEZES ARE LIKELY...ALONG WITH SQUALLY WEATHER. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL EXPAND TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN WAKE
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ON MONDAY...AND PERSIST THERE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 30/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING FAST-MOVING SHOWERS...WITH SOME SQUALLS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. MULTIPLE EPISODES OF INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 30/00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH
NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXTREME
PRECIPITATION AND WINDS GUSTING LOCALLY 20-30 KNOTS.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST




000
FXUS62 KJAX 292002
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
402 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP JUST INLAND FROM THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTN...ESPECIALLY OVER NE FL. MORE ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY RESIDES ACROSS FAR INLAND SECTIONS AS A SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GULF. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE THESE TWO AREAS OF
CONVECTION MERGING ACROSS INLAND NE FL LATE THIS AFTN INTO
EARLY EVENING. THUS...WILL MAXIMIZE POPS WITH NUMEROUS POPS
THERE...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF SE GA. LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...PRECIP COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH...BUT
SOME POTENTIAL OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...BUT
A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOWS IN THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL PREVAIL.

SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS AL/WESTERN GA BY SUNDAY AFTN. WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASING SLIGHTLY...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS
SHWRS/TSTMS BY AFTN. NAM IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE PRODUCING
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL FL. WILL
TEMPER THAT SOLUTION DOWN A BIT...MAXIMIZING POPS IN THE 70
PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR NE FL
TO AROUND 90 FOR INTERIOR SE GA WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP COVERAGE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ERIKA`S REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FL KEYS ON
SUNDAY  EVENING...AND SHOULD BE STEERED N-NW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
ATLANTIC RIDGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED NORTHWARD AS S-SE
FLOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS...WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES AND APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD
THROUGHOUT OUR REGION. NUMEROUS EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND ON SUN AFTERNOON WILL WANE AND SHIFT IN THE COASTAL
COUNTIES...WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFFSHORE TOWARDS MIDNIGHT. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S.

AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON
MON...OUR LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN...WITH BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROTATE INTO OUR REGION...WITH COASTAL
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...SHIFTING INLAND BY
AFTERNOON. LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...ALTHOUGH
CATEGORICAL POPS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. CLOUD
COVER AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 1-2" ARE EXPECTED FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH
MON NIGHT...WITH MUCH HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL FL WHERE HEAVIER ECHOES POTENTIALLY TRAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT...DEPENDENT
ON HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTIVE BANDING BECOMES AS ERIKA`S REMNANTS
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MON EVENING. FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE
NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FL COUNTIES IF WEEKEND RAIN TOTALS ARE
SUBSTANTIAL. THE ORGANIZATION OF ERIKA`S REMNANTS WILL ALSO
DETERMINE HOW DIURNAL OUR CONVECTION IS HEADING INTO THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS ON MON NIGHT. A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE TO FEED
BANDS INTO OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD REQURE US TO SIGNIFICANTLY RAISE
POPS FROM OUR CURRENT DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATLANTIC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE FL
PENINSULA TUES AND WED...RESULTING IN WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS
LOCALLY THAT MAY KEEP ERIKA`S REMNANT MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS IN THE FORECAST ON A
DIURNAL BASIS THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH ACTIVITY MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS FOR INLAND LOCATIONS AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 12Z ECMWF SHOWS A
BRIEF DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS BY LATE WED THROUGH THURS...BUT THEN
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES MAY APPROACH
OUR REGION LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS MOST SUGGESTED
BY THE 12Z ECMWF...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING IN PLACE
LOCALLY. WILL CONTINUE WITH DIURNAL DISTRIBUTION OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POPS OVER NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL FL...WITH SCATTERED
POPS FOR SOUTHEAST GA. PLENTY OF CONVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S ON TUES AND WED. TEMPS WILL THEN TREND BACK TOWARDS 90
AT INLAND LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WEEK...DEPENDENT ON HOW EARLY
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EACH DAY. PLENTY OF HUMIDITY WILL KEEP LOWS IN
THE 70S REGION-WIDE INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTN INTO
THE EVENING IN SHWRS/TSTMS. FOR LATE EVENING ONWARD...VFR WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS WEEKEND...WITH CAUTION
LEVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY OFFSHORE FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CAUTION LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE FOR EARLY/MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  72  90  73  89 /  60  60  40  60
SSI  77  82  75  86 /  50  70  70  80
JAX  75  86  74  87 /  50  70  40  70
SGJ  75  84  76  86 /  50  70  50  80
GNV  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  30  70
OCF  73  88  72  88 /  60  70  30  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/NELSON/WALSH



000
FXUS62 KTBW 291945
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A STRONG U/L LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXTENSIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CENTRAL CUBA WILL PUSH WEST NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WILL BE
PULLED NORTH OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. FOR THIS REASON...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM HERNANDO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY INCLUDING THE
INTERIOR FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MAY
SHIFT NORTH. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH RAIN WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ANY CONVECTIVE BURSTS THAT
MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD DICTATE AREAS OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR IF TRAINING DEVELOPS
OR CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...TRACKING
IT WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC...THEN
MEANDERING IT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF/FLORIDA PANHANDLE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT. AS THIS FEATURES MOVES
INTO THE GULF IT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY REGENERATION.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK BEING ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
(PW`S INCREASING INTO THE 2.25 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE) ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RISK OF SOME EXCESSIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED FLOODING
RAINFALL DURING LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG
RIVERS OR IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND BE
READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

DURING THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD IN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA AS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST LA. LINGERING DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN OF DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE REGION EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AREAS...AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL
PRODUCE LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AND COULD IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SPREAD OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED
AND THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS AND
STREAMS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
PROPERTY AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  85  76  87 /  30  90  60  80
FMY  76  84  76  88 /  40  90  70  80
GIF  76  84  74  88 /  40  90  60  80
SRQ  76  86  76  88 /  30  90  70  80
BKV  74  87  74  87 /  30  80  60  80
SPG  78  86  77  87 /  30  90  60  80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND
     CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
     LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
     PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL




000
FXUS62 KTBW 291945
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
345 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
A STRONG U/L LOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT
TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. EXTENSIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING CENTRAL CUBA WILL PUSH WEST NORTHWEST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WILL BE
PULLED NORTH OVER MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY. THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. FOR THIS REASON...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM HERNANDO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY INCLUDING THE
INTERIOR FOR THE PERIOD SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTH ON MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MAY
SHIFT NORTH. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW MUCH RAIN WILL
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ANY CONVECTIVE BURSTS THAT
MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD DICTATE AREAS OF LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE
ON SUNDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR IF TRAINING DEVELOPS
OR CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL HOLD
OVER THE REGION AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN
REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE...TRACKING
IT WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC...THEN
MEANDERING IT SLOWLY NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF/FLORIDA PANHANDLE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AS IT SLOWLY WASHES OUT. AS THIS FEATURES MOVES
INTO THE GULF IT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY REGENERATION.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK BEING ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
(PW`S INCREASING INTO THE 2.25 TO 2.4 INCH RANGE) ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A RISK OF SOME EXCESSIVE
HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHICH RECEIVED FLOODING
RAINFALL DURING LATE JULY AND EARLY AUGUST. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG
RIVERS OR IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR WATER LEVELS AND BE
READY TO MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.

DURING THURSDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REBUILD IN OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PENINSULA AS ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER
LEVEL LOW SPINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST LA. LINGERING DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A MORE NORMAL
SUMMER TIME PATTERN OF DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE REGION EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S INLAND AREAS...AND UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREDOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL
PRODUCE LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS AND COULD IMPACT ALL
TERMINALS. WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS. VFR CIGS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL SPREAD OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED
AND THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS AND
STREAMS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT
PROPERTY AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  85  76  87 /  30  90  60  80
FMY  76  84  76  88 /  40  90  70  80
GIF  76  84  74  88 /  40  90  60  80
SRQ  76  86  76  88 /  30  90  70  80
BKV  74  87  74  87 /  30  80  60  80
SPG  78  86  77  87 /  30  90  60  80

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
     COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL
     HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
     PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-INLAND
     CHARLOTTE-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND
     LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-
     PINELLAS-POLK.

GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
LONG TERM...57/MCMICHAEL
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL



000
FXUS62 KTAE 291942
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Deep southerly flow is in place over the region today with an upper
low situated on the central Gulf Coast. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expanding early this afternoon with a focus in the
Big Bend of Florida into SW Georgia. Northeasterly low-level flow is
keeping the propagation of the cells very slow, with localized heavy
rain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening.
Activity should diminish this evening, but isolated to scattered
showers will be possible through the overnight hours.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will lift from the the Florida Panhandle
coastline toward northeast Georgia and weaken through the day
Sunday. Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
focused east of this anomaly where deep layer steering will remain
southerly, bringing in a plume of warm, moist Gulf air. With
persistent cloud cover, instability will be capped fairly low, with
CAPE around 1000-1300 J/kg, but the 0-6 km wind shear values
tomorrow afternoon will be quite high for August, around 40 kts.
Forcing Sunday will be weak and mostly due to a combination of the
afternoon seabreeze and enhanced divergence aloft. In the lower CAPE-
high shear environment tomorrow, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday will still be focused
on our eastern zones, but with lower shear values, the main threat
will be continued heavy rain. Temperatures will peak in the upper
80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures to the east
where rain chances and cloud cover are highest. Overnight lows will
stay in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Weak high pressure to the east will likely stear the remnants of
Erika north through the eastern Gulf and into our forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds over the waters may increase a bit,
but will remain below tropical storm strength. The main impact
expected to the area is rainfall, particularly over the eastern half
of our forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
gradually lower heading into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Sunday] Showers and thunderstorms will impact most
terminals through the afternoon before activity wanes this evening.
MVFR conditions will accompany the thunderstorms. IFR conditions
will be possible overnight at the terminals with low cigs and a bit
of fog anticipated.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will approach cautionary levels Monday night through Tuesday
over the eastern coastal waters as the remnants of Erika move
northward. Waves are expected to stay around 1 to 2 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the period with the highest
chances over the eastern waters. Some of these thunderstorms may
produce locally stronger winds and higher waves.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days with high relative humidity values and rain chances.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall over the next three days will likely add up to totals
around 2-3" across the eastern half of the forecast area, with lower
totals around 1-2" possible to the west. Depending on how the
remnants of Erika track, totals may be even higher, potentially
around 5-7" across eastern portions of our area. Localized flooding
is possible over the next few days east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, but at this time river flooding
potential is low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  92  73  91  74 /  30  40  20  60  30
Panama City   73  89  75  88  76 /  30  10  10  40  20
Dothan        69  90  70  91  72 /  30  30  10  30  20
Albany        71  90  72  90  72 /  50  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  90  71  89  73 /  40  60  20  60  30
Cross City    73  90  74  88  74 /  30  60  30  70  30
Apalachicola  73  89  76  89  77 /  30  20  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291942
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Deep southerly flow is in place over the region today with an upper
low situated on the central Gulf Coast. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expanding early this afternoon with a focus in the
Big Bend of Florida into SW Georgia. Northeasterly low-level flow is
keeping the propagation of the cells very slow, with localized heavy
rain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening.
Activity should diminish this evening, but isolated to scattered
showers will be possible through the overnight hours.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will lift from the the Florida Panhandle
coastline toward northeast Georgia and weaken through the day
Sunday. Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
focused east of this anomaly where deep layer steering will remain
southerly, bringing in a plume of warm, moist Gulf air. With
persistent cloud cover, instability will be capped fairly low, with
CAPE around 1000-1300 J/kg, but the 0-6 km wind shear values
tomorrow afternoon will be quite high for August, around 40 kts.
Forcing Sunday will be weak and mostly due to a combination of the
afternoon seabreeze and enhanced divergence aloft. In the lower CAPE-
high shear environment tomorrow, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday will still be focused
on our eastern zones, but with lower shear values, the main threat
will be continued heavy rain. Temperatures will peak in the upper
80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures to the east
where rain chances and cloud cover are highest. Overnight lows will
stay in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Weak high pressure to the east will likely stear the remnants of
Erika north through the eastern Gulf and into our forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds over the waters may increase a bit,
but will remain below tropical storm strength. The main impact
expected to the area is rainfall, particularly over the eastern half
of our forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
gradually lower heading into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Sunday] Showers and thunderstorms will impact most
terminals through the afternoon before activity wanes this evening.
MVFR conditions will accompany the thunderstorms. IFR conditions
will be possible overnight at the terminals with low cigs and a bit
of fog anticipated.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will approach cautionary levels Monday night through Tuesday
over the eastern coastal waters as the remnants of Erika move
northward. Waves are expected to stay around 1 to 2 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the period with the highest
chances over the eastern waters. Some of these thunderstorms may
produce locally stronger winds and higher waves.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days with high relative humidity values and rain chances.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall over the next three days will likely add up to totals
around 2-3" across the eastern half of the forecast area, with lower
totals around 1-2" possible to the west. Depending on how the
remnants of Erika track, totals may be even higher, potentially
around 5-7" across eastern portions of our area. Localized flooding
is possible over the next few days east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, but at this time river flooding
potential is low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  92  73  91  74 /  30  40  20  60  30
Panama City   73  89  75  88  76 /  30  10  10  40  20
Dothan        69  90  70  91  72 /  30  30  10  30  20
Albany        71  90  72  90  72 /  50  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  90  71  89  73 /  40  60  20  60  30
Cross City    73  90  74  88  74 /  30  60  30  70  30
Apalachicola  73  89  76  89  77 /  30  20  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



000
FXUS62 KTAE 291942
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
342 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Deep southerly flow is in place over the region today with an upper
low situated on the central Gulf Coast. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expanding early this afternoon with a focus in the
Big Bend of Florida into SW Georgia. Northeasterly low-level flow is
keeping the propagation of the cells very slow, with localized heavy
rain possible through the afternoon and into the early evening.
Activity should diminish this evening, but isolated to scattered
showers will be possible through the overnight hours.


.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

An upper level +PV anomaly will lift from the the Florida Panhandle
coastline toward northeast Georgia and weaken through the day
Sunday. Highest chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
focused east of this anomaly where deep layer steering will remain
southerly, bringing in a plume of warm, moist Gulf air. With
persistent cloud cover, instability will be capped fairly low, with
CAPE around 1000-1300 J/kg, but the 0-6 km wind shear values
tomorrow afternoon will be quite high for August, around 40 kts.
Forcing Sunday will be weak and mostly due to a combination of the
afternoon seabreeze and enhanced divergence aloft. In the lower CAPE-
high shear environment tomorrow, some of these storms will have the
potential to produce damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday will still be focused
on our eastern zones, but with lower shear values, the main threat
will be continued heavy rain. Temperatures will peak in the upper
80s to low 90s Sunday and Monday with lower temperatures to the east
where rain chances and cloud cover are highest. Overnight lows will
stay in the low to mid 70s.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

Weak high pressure to the east will likely stear the remnants of
Erika north through the eastern Gulf and into our forecast area
Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds over the waters may increase a bit,
but will remain below tropical storm strength. The main impact
expected to the area is rainfall, particularly over the eastern half
of our forecast area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will
gradually lower heading into the weekend. Highs will be in the upper
80s to low 90s and lows will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Sunday] Showers and thunderstorms will impact most
terminals through the afternoon before activity wanes this evening.
MVFR conditions will accompany the thunderstorms. IFR conditions
will be possible overnight at the terminals with low cigs and a bit
of fog anticipated.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will approach cautionary levels Monday night through Tuesday
over the eastern coastal waters as the remnants of Erika move
northward. Waves are expected to stay around 1 to 2 feet. Showers
and thunderstorms are expected through the period with the highest
chances over the eastern waters. Some of these thunderstorms may
produce locally stronger winds and higher waves.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
several days with high relative humidity values and rain chances.

&&

.Hydrology...

Rainfall over the next three days will likely add up to totals
around 2-3" across the eastern half of the forecast area, with lower
totals around 1-2" possible to the west. Depending on how the
remnants of Erika track, totals may be even higher, potentially
around 5-7" across eastern portions of our area. Localized flooding
is possible over the next few days east of the
Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, but at this time river flooding
potential is low.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  92  73  91  74 /  30  40  20  60  30
Panama City   73  89  75  88  76 /  30  10  10  40  20
Dothan        69  90  70  91  72 /  30  30  10  30  20
Albany        71  90  72  90  72 /  50  50  20  40  20
Valdosta      71  90  71  89  73 /  40  60  20  60  30
Cross City    73  90  74  88  74 /  30  60  30  70  30
Apalachicola  73  89  76  89  77 /  30  20  30  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...MOORE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291753
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
153 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ONSHORE AFFECTING EAST COAST
TERMINALS. ENOUGH WIND IN THE PROFILE TO PRODUCE QUICK 30KT GUSTS.
ACTIVITY MAY LESSEN SOMEWHAT LATE PM, BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT, AS FORMER ERIKA PASSES THROUGH CUBA WITH PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ONSHORE INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WITH GUSTY WINDS. TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. STORMS INCREASE LATER THIS PM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST NEARING APF. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  81  90  79  90 /  70  70  80  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  88  79  89 /  70  80  80  70
MIAMI            78  88  78  89 /  70  80  90  70
NAPLES           77  90  76  89 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291753
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
153 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ONSHORE AFFECTING EAST COAST
TERMINALS. ENOUGH WIND IN THE PROFILE TO PRODUCE QUICK 30KT GUSTS.
ACTIVITY MAY LESSEN SOMEWHAT LATE PM, BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT, AS FORMER ERIKA PASSES THROUGH CUBA WITH PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ONSHORE INTO TOMORROW MORNING
WITH GUSTY WINDS. TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR ACTIVITY
TONIGHT. STORMS INCREASE LATER THIS PM ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST NEARING APF. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  81  90  79  90 /  70  70  80  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  88  79  89 /  70  80  80  70
MIAMI            78  88  78  89 /  70  80  90  70
NAPLES           77  90  76  89 /  20  60  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KKEY 291646
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1102 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY
SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR RESPECTIVELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION...CLOUDS LINES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER KEYS. THIS COULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE CONCLUDED THAT ERIKA HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A SIMILAR TRACK TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN FORECAST IN THE LAST FEW
ADVISORIES...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CUBA. THIS AREA WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...VORTICITY...AND AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ADDRESS ERIKA`S DEGENERATION...HOWEVER...IMPACTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ANALYSIS. INCREASINGLY SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
STARTING TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 35 KNOTS. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC CALLS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 18
KNOTS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF
ERIKA MOVES ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 30/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING FAST-MOVING SHOWERS...WITH SOME SQUALLS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. EPISODES OF INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 30/00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS
SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXTREME
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291646
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1102 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY
SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR RESPECTIVELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION...CLOUDS LINES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER KEYS. THIS COULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE CONCLUDED THAT ERIKA HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A SIMILAR TRACK TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN FORECAST IN THE LAST FEW
ADVISORIES...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CUBA. THIS AREA WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...VORTICITY...AND AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ADDRESS ERIKA`S DEGENERATION...HOWEVER...IMPACTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ANALYSIS. INCREASINGLY SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
STARTING TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 35 KNOTS. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC CALLS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 18
KNOTS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF
ERIKA MOVES ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 30/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING FAST-MOVING SHOWERS...WITH SOME SQUALLS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. EPISODES OF INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 30/00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS
SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXTREME
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291646
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1102 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY
SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR RESPECTIVELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION...CLOUDS LINES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER KEYS. THIS COULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE CONCLUDED THAT ERIKA HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A SIMILAR TRACK TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN FORECAST IN THE LAST FEW
ADVISORIES...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CUBA. THIS AREA WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...VORTICITY...AND AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ADDRESS ERIKA`S DEGENERATION...HOWEVER...IMPACTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ANALYSIS. INCREASINGLY SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
STARTING TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 35 KNOTS. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC CALLS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 18
KNOTS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF
ERIKA MOVES ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 30/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING FAST-MOVING SHOWERS...WITH SOME SQUALLS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. EPISODES OF INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 30/00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS
SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXTREME
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291646
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1102 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY
SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR RESPECTIVELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION...CLOUDS LINES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER KEYS. THIS COULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE CONCLUDED THAT ERIKA HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A SIMILAR TRACK TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN FORECAST IN THE LAST FEW
ADVISORIES...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CUBA. THIS AREA WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...VORTICITY...AND AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ADDRESS ERIKA`S DEGENERATION...HOWEVER...IMPACTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ANALYSIS. INCREASINGLY SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
STARTING TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 35 KNOTS. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC CALLS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 18
KNOTS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF
ERIKA MOVES ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 30/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING FAST-MOVING SHOWERS...WITH SOME SQUALLS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. EPISODES OF INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 30/00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS
SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXTREME
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291502
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1102 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY
SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR RESPECTIVELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION...CLOUDS LINES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER KEYS. THIS COULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE CONCLUDED THAT ERIKA HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A SIMILAR TRACK TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN FORECAST IN THE LAST FEW
ADVISORIES...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CUBA. THIS AREA WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...VORTICITY...AND AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ADDRESS ERIKA`S DEGENERATION...HOWEVER...IMPACTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ANALYSIS. OUR FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ADDRESS ERIKA`S DEGENERATION...HOWEVER...IMPACTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ANALYSIS.INCREASINGLY SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
STARTING TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 35 KNOTS. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC CALLS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 18
KNOTS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF
ERIKA MOVES ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 30/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING FAST-MOVING SHOWERS...WITH SOME SQUALLS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. EPISODES OF INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 30/00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS
SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXTREME
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 291502
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1102 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DETECTED BY
SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR RESPECTIVELY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. AS THE WINDS SHIFT FROM A MORE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION...CLOUDS LINES HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF THE
LOWER KEYS. THIS COULD GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90S THIS AFTERNOON.

.FORECAST...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE CONCLUDED THAT ERIKA HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE A SIMILAR TRACK TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN FORECAST IN THE LAST FEW
ADVISORIES...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CUBA. THIS AREA WILL
MAINTAIN HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...VORTICITY...AND AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ADDRESS ERIKA`S DEGENERATION...HOWEVER...IMPACTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ANALYSIS. OUR FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO
ADDRESS ERIKA`S DEGENERATION...HOWEVER...IMPACTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ANALYSIS.INCREASINGLY SQUALLY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
STARTING TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 35 KNOTS. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC CALLS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 18
KNOTS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS COASTAL WATERS. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AS WHAT IS LEFT OF
ERIKA MOVES ACROSS OUR COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA STRAITS TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY FOR HAWK CHANNEL AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...THROUGH 30/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
BOTH EYW AND MTH. HOWEVER...AN APPROACHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING FAST-MOVING SHOWERS...WITH SOME SQUALLS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. EPISODES OF INSTRUMENT METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
WILL BE INCREASINGLY LIKELY AFTER 30/00Z...ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS
SQUALLS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING HEAVY TO EXTREME
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 291417
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1017 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

ERIKA IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THAT
THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE HIGHEST TIDE OF THE MONTH IS THIS
WEEKEND AND BASED UPON LATEST FORECASTS AND IN ADDITION TO
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TIDAL
FLOODING ALONG MIAMI BEACH TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

12Z RAOB SHOWED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AT 6.6C/KM AND H5 TEMP OF
-7.4C. BOTH ARE MORE FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY. THUS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND, POPS SHOULD DECREASE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS THE OPEN WAVE WHICH WAS ONCE ERIKA MOVES
CLOSER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW MAY DELIVER SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SO VCSH WAS USED. MOST ACTIVITY
COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THUS
VCTS MAY NOT BE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. STORMS COULD
BE NUMEROUS AT APF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  81  90  79 /  50  70  70  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  88  79 /  50  70  80  80
MIAMI            91  78  88  78 /  50  70  80  90
NAPLES           93  77  90  76 /  70  30  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291417
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1017 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...

ERIKA IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER KEEP IN MIND THAT
THE THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, THE HIGHEST TIDE OF THE MONTH IS THIS
WEEKEND AND BASED UPON LATEST FORECASTS AND IN ADDITION TO
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR TIDAL
FLOODING ALONG MIAMI BEACH TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.

12Z RAOB SHOWED H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AT 6.6C/KM AND H5 TEMP OF
-7.4C. BOTH ARE MORE FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY. THUS A BETTER
CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND, POPS SHOULD DECREASE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS THE OPEN WAVE WHICH WAS ONCE ERIKA MOVES
CLOSER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AVIATION...

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW MAY DELIVER SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SO VCSH WAS USED. MOST ACTIVITY
COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THUS
VCTS MAY NOT BE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. STORMS COULD
BE NUMEROUS AT APF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  81  90  79 /  50  70  70  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  88  79 /  50  70  80  80
MIAMI            91  78  88  78 /  50  70  80  90
NAPLES           93  77  90  76 /  70  30  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMLB 291406
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1006 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR INTERIOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COAST TONIGHT. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH SO SOME DEBRIS RAINFALL FROM AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTH COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

MORNING GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA...MIAMI SOUNDING AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED DRY AIR. MORNING SATELLITE
SHOWS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION OFF TO OUR EAST...SO CURRENT FORECAST
FOR TODAY WITH LOWER POPS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE LOOKS
GOOD.  THE LATEST HRRR MODEL CONCENTRATES THE HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR/WEST OF I-4...WHICH LOOKS GOOD SINCE THIS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STEERING FLOW TODAY SO STORMS SHOULD SHOW A
LITTLE MORE MOTION TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT THE INTERIOR
STORMS WILL HAVE MAX AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES.

SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASING TONIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASED SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

ALL OF THE ABOVE THINKING IS PRETTY MUCH INCORPORATED INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR AS CUMULUS
FORM.  STILL EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR REDUCTIONS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR TAF SITES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

AREAS OF LINGERING RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH
EARLY EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AT DAB.  AN INCREASING
MOIST SE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE
WATERS THAT WILL PUSH ONSHORE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
SITES BETWEEN MLB AND SUA.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN AS LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTS INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS.  EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE WIND CHOP SO CONDITIONS STARTING OUT SUNDAY LOOK POOR FOR SMALL
CRAFT OVER ALL OF THE WATERS.

SUN-WED...E/SE MARITIME FLOW INCREASES SUN/MON AS REMNANT TROUGH
FROM ERIKA DRAWS NEARER TO THE SW PENINSULA. INCREASE IN FLOW WILL
PROMOTE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WHICH WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY DROP LOCAL VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ACROSS THE WATERS S
OF THE CAPE. WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUN WITH SEAS TO 6 FT THERE. WINDS
WILL RELAX A LITTLE GOING INTO MON BUT SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO SLACKEN AS SMALL CRAFT WILL BE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THRU
MON. WINDS TO 15 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CAPE BUT WITH THE SAME 6 FT SEAS.

BOATING CONDITIONS MORE ACCEPTABLE BY MID-WEEK WITH SE WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK/VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KMLB 291406
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1006 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR INTERIOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COAST TONIGHT. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH SO SOME DEBRIS RAINFALL FROM AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTH COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

MORNING GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA...MIAMI SOUNDING AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED DRY AIR. MORNING SATELLITE
SHOWS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION OFF TO OUR EAST...SO CURRENT FORECAST
FOR TODAY WITH LOWER POPS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE LOOKS
GOOD.  THE LATEST HRRR MODEL CONCENTRATES THE HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR/WEST OF I-4...WHICH LOOKS GOOD SINCE THIS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STEERING FLOW TODAY SO STORMS SHOULD SHOW A
LITTLE MORE MOTION TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT THE INTERIOR
STORMS WILL HAVE MAX AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES.

SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASING TONIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASED SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

ALL OF THE ABOVE THINKING IS PRETTY MUCH INCORPORATED INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR AS CUMULUS
FORM.  STILL EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR REDUCTIONS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR TAF SITES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

AREAS OF LINGERING RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH
EARLY EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AT DAB.  AN INCREASING
MOIST SE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE
WATERS THAT WILL PUSH ONSHORE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
SITES BETWEEN MLB AND SUA.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN AS LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTS INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS.  EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE WIND CHOP SO CONDITIONS STARTING OUT SUNDAY LOOK POOR FOR SMALL
CRAFT OVER ALL OF THE WATERS.

SUN-WED...E/SE MARITIME FLOW INCREASES SUN/MON AS REMNANT TROUGH
FROM ERIKA DRAWS NEARER TO THE SW PENINSULA. INCREASE IN FLOW WILL
PROMOTE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WHICH WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY DROP LOCAL VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ACROSS THE WATERS S
OF THE CAPE. WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUN WITH SEAS TO 6 FT THERE. WINDS
WILL RELAX A LITTLE GOING INTO MON BUT SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO SLACKEN AS SMALL CRAFT WILL BE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THRU
MON. WINDS TO 15 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CAPE BUT WITH THE SAME 6 FT SEAS.

BOATING CONDITIONS MORE ACCEPTABLE BY MID-WEEK WITH SE WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK/VOLKMER



000
FXUS62 KMLB 291406
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1006 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING TONIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR INTERIOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND THE COAST TONIGHT. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH SO SOME DEBRIS RAINFALL FROM AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTH COAST LATE IN THE DAY.

MORNING GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA...MIAMI SOUNDING AND GFS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME ELEVATED DRY AIR. MORNING SATELLITE
SHOWS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION OFF TO OUR EAST...SO CURRENT FORECAST
FOR TODAY WITH LOWER POPS ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE LOOKS
GOOD.  THE LATEST HRRR MODEL CONCENTRATES THE HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR/WEST OF I-4...WHICH LOOKS GOOD SINCE THIS SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THERE
WILL BE A LITTLE MORE STEERING FLOW TODAY SO STORMS SHOULD SHOW A
LITTLE MORE MOTION TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...SO EXPECT THE INTERIOR
STORMS WILL HAVE MAX AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES.

SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASING TONIGHT SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASED SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.

ALL OF THE ABOVE THINKING IS PRETTY MUCH INCORPORATED INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR THIS MORNING EXCEPT BRIEF MVFR AS CUMULUS
FORM.  STILL EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR REDUCTIONS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR TAF SITES
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

AREAS OF LINGERING RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD EXTEND THROUGH
EARLY EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AT DAB.  AN INCREASING
MOIST SE FLOW WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA OVER THE
WATERS THAT WILL PUSH ONSHORE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING
SITES BETWEEN MLB AND SUA.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY TIGHTEN AS LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH FROM REMNANTS OF ERIKA LIFTS INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS.  EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH TONIGHT FOR
EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE
MORE WIND CHOP SO CONDITIONS STARTING OUT SUNDAY LOOK POOR FOR SMALL
CRAFT OVER ALL OF THE WATERS.

SUN-WED...E/SE MARITIME FLOW INCREASES SUN/MON AS REMNANT TROUGH
FROM ERIKA DRAWS NEARER TO THE SW PENINSULA. INCREASE IN FLOW WILL
PROMOTE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WHICH WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY DROP LOCAL VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ACROSS THE WATERS S
OF THE CAPE. WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUN WITH SEAS TO 6 FT THERE. WINDS
WILL RELAX A LITTLE GOING INTO MON BUT SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER
TO SLACKEN AS SMALL CRAFT WILL BE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THRU
MON. WINDS TO 15 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CAPE BUT WITH THE SAME 6 FT SEAS.

BOATING CONDITIONS MORE ACCEPTABLE BY MID-WEEK WITH SE WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK/VOLKMER




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291357
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...Erika Dissipates but Could Still Bring Heavy Rain Next Week...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Southerly flow to the east of Gulf upper low is pushing plenty of
deep moisture across the foreast area this morning. Currently,
heavy rainfall is confined to the nearshore waters and the
northeast counties in the forecast area (Ben Hill and Irwin).
Updated the forecast to increase the PoPs in these areas. However,
overall thinking for remainder of the day is unchanged. Plenty of
cloud cover will limit amount of instability this afternoon, but
expect most areas to at least see some light rain. A few spots
could see some training cells with locally heavy rainfall possible
(as seen in Irwin and Ben Hill counties this morning).

One additional note...Tropical Storm Erika has dissipated along
the north coast of Cuba this morning. However, the leftover
moisture is still expected to reach the northeastern Gulf next
week with heavy rain possible. There is some chance that Erika
could regenerate in a couple days as it reaches the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. However, significant strengthening is not
anticipated, and heavy rain will continue to be the primary
threat.

&&

.Prev Discussion [407 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

By this evening, the +PV anomaly over the north-central Gulf will
have moved very little. The associated pressure trough will become
a bit more broad as another wave slides through the center of the
country, from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. This
will eventually increase the mid/upper levels southwesterly flow
and advect the northern Gulf anomaly through the Southeast on
Sunday, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Through the same
period, the secondary wave will stall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface a trough out ahead of the northern Gulf
anomaly will disturb the broad ridge covering the eastern CONUS.

We`ll likely have a fair amount of convection lingering into the
evening tonight. On Sunday, the western half of the Tri-State
region will be under a slightly drier airmass directly below the
+PV anomaly. To the east, the surface trough and upper forcing
contribution will initiate widespread convection. A weak surface
trough will remain along the western Atlantic coast on Monday,
forced by a ribbon of trailing PV behind the main anomaly. This
will be a focus for convective initiation, with storms spreading
west into the eastern Tri-State region in the afternoon. On
Monday, storms may have the potential to produce higher than
normal rain rates as PWATs over 2" combine with warm cloud depths
between 13-14kft coincide. This could provide an unfortunate
amount of antecedent rain leading up to the approach of Erika.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

There still remains an incredible amount of uncertainty with
respect to the eventual track of Erika. The general idea is that
Erika will weaken into a depression as it crosses over Cuba, and
that`s where models continue to diverge. From the 00z suite of
guidance, once Erika emerges into the Gulf the ECMWF lifts a weak
surface trough through the northeast Gulf, the GFS redevelops
Erika into a tropical storm and moves it north toward the Tri-
State region, while the HWRF completely dissipates the system. So
at this time, the range of possibilities lies between total
dissipation and a tropical storm at our doorstep sometime Tuesday
or Wednesday. Keeping in mind that the "range of possibilities"
has really been changing with every model run. The one thing that
there remains some confidence about is that we will likely receive
a couple days of heavy rainfall as Erika treks through the region.
Highest average rainfall amounts between 5-7 inches still seem
reasonable, and will most likely be across or east of the eastern
half of the region. Stay tuned...


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

VFR conditions prevailed across the area at TAF issuance time,
although satellite revealed dense high cloud cover across most of
the area. Some periods of MVFR CIGS will be possible particularly
at TLH, VLD, and ABY today, although in general VFR conditions are
expected to dominate outside of thunderstorm activity. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the area,
mainly after 15Z and prior to 03Z. IFR visibilities would be
possible in any thunderstorm.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the
weekend before increasing in advance of Erika early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the next several days.


.Fire Weather...

Widespread rain and elevated relative humidity is expected today,
with no red flag conditions expected in the near future.


.Hydrology...

With around an inch of rain (on average) expected through the
weekend, no impacts are expected. As mentioned earlier, Erika has
the potential to bring 5 to 7 inches in some locations, provided
it remains a somewhat progressive system. Most basins should be
able to handle these amounts considering their low flows. However,
the target area (at this time) for the highest rainfall amounts is
across the southeast Big Bend of Florida where the Steinhatchee
River remains above normal flows. Should these amounts fall in
this region, there could be some significant impacts, even outside
of river basins in rural or urbanized areas. All of this is
highly dependent on the uncertain forecast track of Erika.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  72  92  75  91 /  70  30  40  20  60
Panama City   84  74  87  76  88 /  70  30  20  20  40
Dothan        85  70  91  72  92 /  60  40  30  20  40
Albany        85  71  89  72  91 /  70  50  40  20  40
Valdosta      86  72  90  73  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    87  74  89  75  89 /  50  30  60  30  60
Apalachicola  85  75  90  78  89 /  70  30  30  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN



000
FXUS62 KTAE 291357
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...Erika Dissipates but Could Still Bring Heavy Rain Next Week...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Southerly flow to the east of Gulf upper low is pushing plenty of
deep moisture across the foreast area this morning. Currently,
heavy rainfall is confined to the nearshore waters and the
northeast counties in the forecast area (Ben Hill and Irwin).
Updated the forecast to increase the PoPs in these areas. However,
overall thinking for remainder of the day is unchanged. Plenty of
cloud cover will limit amount of instability this afternoon, but
expect most areas to at least see some light rain. A few spots
could see some training cells with locally heavy rainfall possible
(as seen in Irwin and Ben Hill counties this morning).

One additional note...Tropical Storm Erika has dissipated along
the north coast of Cuba this morning. However, the leftover
moisture is still expected to reach the northeastern Gulf next
week with heavy rain possible. There is some chance that Erika
could regenerate in a couple days as it reaches the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. However, significant strengthening is not
anticipated, and heavy rain will continue to be the primary
threat.

&&

.Prev Discussion [407 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

By this evening, the +PV anomaly over the north-central Gulf will
have moved very little. The associated pressure trough will become
a bit more broad as another wave slides through the center of the
country, from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. This
will eventually increase the mid/upper levels southwesterly flow
and advect the northern Gulf anomaly through the Southeast on
Sunday, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Through the same
period, the secondary wave will stall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface a trough out ahead of the northern Gulf
anomaly will disturb the broad ridge covering the eastern CONUS.

We`ll likely have a fair amount of convection lingering into the
evening tonight. On Sunday, the western half of the Tri-State
region will be under a slightly drier airmass directly below the
+PV anomaly. To the east, the surface trough and upper forcing
contribution will initiate widespread convection. A weak surface
trough will remain along the western Atlantic coast on Monday,
forced by a ribbon of trailing PV behind the main anomaly. This
will be a focus for convective initiation, with storms spreading
west into the eastern Tri-State region in the afternoon. On
Monday, storms may have the potential to produce higher than
normal rain rates as PWATs over 2" combine with warm cloud depths
between 13-14kft coincide. This could provide an unfortunate
amount of antecedent rain leading up to the approach of Erika.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

There still remains an incredible amount of uncertainty with
respect to the eventual track of Erika. The general idea is that
Erika will weaken into a depression as it crosses over Cuba, and
that`s where models continue to diverge. From the 00z suite of
guidance, once Erika emerges into the Gulf the ECMWF lifts a weak
surface trough through the northeast Gulf, the GFS redevelops
Erika into a tropical storm and moves it north toward the Tri-
State region, while the HWRF completely dissipates the system. So
at this time, the range of possibilities lies between total
dissipation and a tropical storm at our doorstep sometime Tuesday
or Wednesday. Keeping in mind that the "range of possibilities"
has really been changing with every model run. The one thing that
there remains some confidence about is that we will likely receive
a couple days of heavy rainfall as Erika treks through the region.
Highest average rainfall amounts between 5-7 inches still seem
reasonable, and will most likely be across or east of the eastern
half of the region. Stay tuned...


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

VFR conditions prevailed across the area at TAF issuance time,
although satellite revealed dense high cloud cover across most of
the area. Some periods of MVFR CIGS will be possible particularly
at TLH, VLD, and ABY today, although in general VFR conditions are
expected to dominate outside of thunderstorm activity. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the area,
mainly after 15Z and prior to 03Z. IFR visibilities would be
possible in any thunderstorm.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the
weekend before increasing in advance of Erika early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the next several days.


.Fire Weather...

Widespread rain and elevated relative humidity is expected today,
with no red flag conditions expected in the near future.


.Hydrology...

With around an inch of rain (on average) expected through the
weekend, no impacts are expected. As mentioned earlier, Erika has
the potential to bring 5 to 7 inches in some locations, provided
it remains a somewhat progressive system. Most basins should be
able to handle these amounts considering their low flows. However,
the target area (at this time) for the highest rainfall amounts is
across the southeast Big Bend of Florida where the Steinhatchee
River remains above normal flows. Should these amounts fall in
this region, there could be some significant impacts, even outside
of river basins in rural or urbanized areas. All of this is
highly dependent on the uncertain forecast track of Erika.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  72  92  75  91 /  70  30  40  20  60
Panama City   84  74  87  76  88 /  70  30  20  20  40
Dothan        85  70  91  72  92 /  60  40  30  20  40
Albany        85  71  89  72  91 /  70  50  40  20  40
Valdosta      86  72  90  73  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    87  74  89  75  89 /  50  30  60  30  60
Apalachicola  85  75  90  78  89 /  70  30  30  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291357
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...Erika Dissipates but Could Still Bring Heavy Rain Next Week...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Southerly flow to the east of Gulf upper low is pushing plenty of
deep moisture across the foreast area this morning. Currently,
heavy rainfall is confined to the nearshore waters and the
northeast counties in the forecast area (Ben Hill and Irwin).
Updated the forecast to increase the PoPs in these areas. However,
overall thinking for remainder of the day is unchanged. Plenty of
cloud cover will limit amount of instability this afternoon, but
expect most areas to at least see some light rain. A few spots
could see some training cells with locally heavy rainfall possible
(as seen in Irwin and Ben Hill counties this morning).

One additional note...Tropical Storm Erika has dissipated along
the north coast of Cuba this morning. However, the leftover
moisture is still expected to reach the northeastern Gulf next
week with heavy rain possible. There is some chance that Erika
could regenerate in a couple days as it reaches the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. However, significant strengthening is not
anticipated, and heavy rain will continue to be the primary
threat.

&&

.Prev Discussion [407 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

By this evening, the +PV anomaly over the north-central Gulf will
have moved very little. The associated pressure trough will become
a bit more broad as another wave slides through the center of the
country, from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. This
will eventually increase the mid/upper levels southwesterly flow
and advect the northern Gulf anomaly through the Southeast on
Sunday, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Through the same
period, the secondary wave will stall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface a trough out ahead of the northern Gulf
anomaly will disturb the broad ridge covering the eastern CONUS.

We`ll likely have a fair amount of convection lingering into the
evening tonight. On Sunday, the western half of the Tri-State
region will be under a slightly drier airmass directly below the
+PV anomaly. To the east, the surface trough and upper forcing
contribution will initiate widespread convection. A weak surface
trough will remain along the western Atlantic coast on Monday,
forced by a ribbon of trailing PV behind the main anomaly. This
will be a focus for convective initiation, with storms spreading
west into the eastern Tri-State region in the afternoon. On
Monday, storms may have the potential to produce higher than
normal rain rates as PWATs over 2" combine with warm cloud depths
between 13-14kft coincide. This could provide an unfortunate
amount of antecedent rain leading up to the approach of Erika.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

There still remains an incredible amount of uncertainty with
respect to the eventual track of Erika. The general idea is that
Erika will weaken into a depression as it crosses over Cuba, and
that`s where models continue to diverge. From the 00z suite of
guidance, once Erika emerges into the Gulf the ECMWF lifts a weak
surface trough through the northeast Gulf, the GFS redevelops
Erika into a tropical storm and moves it north toward the Tri-
State region, while the HWRF completely dissipates the system. So
at this time, the range of possibilities lies between total
dissipation and a tropical storm at our doorstep sometime Tuesday
or Wednesday. Keeping in mind that the "range of possibilities"
has really been changing with every model run. The one thing that
there remains some confidence about is that we will likely receive
a couple days of heavy rainfall as Erika treks through the region.
Highest average rainfall amounts between 5-7 inches still seem
reasonable, and will most likely be across or east of the eastern
half of the region. Stay tuned...


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

VFR conditions prevailed across the area at TAF issuance time,
although satellite revealed dense high cloud cover across most of
the area. Some periods of MVFR CIGS will be possible particularly
at TLH, VLD, and ABY today, although in general VFR conditions are
expected to dominate outside of thunderstorm activity. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the area,
mainly after 15Z and prior to 03Z. IFR visibilities would be
possible in any thunderstorm.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the
weekend before increasing in advance of Erika early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the next several days.


.Fire Weather...

Widespread rain and elevated relative humidity is expected today,
with no red flag conditions expected in the near future.


.Hydrology...

With around an inch of rain (on average) expected through the
weekend, no impacts are expected. As mentioned earlier, Erika has
the potential to bring 5 to 7 inches in some locations, provided
it remains a somewhat progressive system. Most basins should be
able to handle these amounts considering their low flows. However,
the target area (at this time) for the highest rainfall amounts is
across the southeast Big Bend of Florida where the Steinhatchee
River remains above normal flows. Should these amounts fall in
this region, there could be some significant impacts, even outside
of river basins in rural or urbanized areas. All of this is
highly dependent on the uncertain forecast track of Erika.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  72  92  75  91 /  70  30  40  20  60
Panama City   84  74  87  76  88 /  70  30  20  20  40
Dothan        85  70  91  72  92 /  60  40  30  20  40
Albany        85  71  89  72  91 /  70  50  40  20  40
Valdosta      86  72  90  73  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    87  74  89  75  89 /  50  30  60  30  60
Apalachicola  85  75  90  78  89 /  70  30  30  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 291357
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
957 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...Erika Dissipates but Could Still Bring Heavy Rain Next Week...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Southerly flow to the east of Gulf upper low is pushing plenty of
deep moisture across the foreast area this morning. Currently,
heavy rainfall is confined to the nearshore waters and the
northeast counties in the forecast area (Ben Hill and Irwin).
Updated the forecast to increase the PoPs in these areas. However,
overall thinking for remainder of the day is unchanged. Plenty of
cloud cover will limit amount of instability this afternoon, but
expect most areas to at least see some light rain. A few spots
could see some training cells with locally heavy rainfall possible
(as seen in Irwin and Ben Hill counties this morning).

One additional note...Tropical Storm Erika has dissipated along
the north coast of Cuba this morning. However, the leftover
moisture is still expected to reach the northeastern Gulf next
week with heavy rain possible. There is some chance that Erika
could regenerate in a couple days as it reaches the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. However, significant strengthening is not
anticipated, and heavy rain will continue to be the primary
threat.

&&

.Prev Discussion [407 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

By this evening, the +PV anomaly over the north-central Gulf will
have moved very little. The associated pressure trough will become
a bit more broad as another wave slides through the center of the
country, from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. This
will eventually increase the mid/upper levels southwesterly flow
and advect the northern Gulf anomaly through the Southeast on
Sunday, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Through the same
period, the secondary wave will stall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface a trough out ahead of the northern Gulf
anomaly will disturb the broad ridge covering the eastern CONUS.

We`ll likely have a fair amount of convection lingering into the
evening tonight. On Sunday, the western half of the Tri-State
region will be under a slightly drier airmass directly below the
+PV anomaly. To the east, the surface trough and upper forcing
contribution will initiate widespread convection. A weak surface
trough will remain along the western Atlantic coast on Monday,
forced by a ribbon of trailing PV behind the main anomaly. This
will be a focus for convective initiation, with storms spreading
west into the eastern Tri-State region in the afternoon. On
Monday, storms may have the potential to produce higher than
normal rain rates as PWATs over 2" combine with warm cloud depths
between 13-14kft coincide. This could provide an unfortunate
amount of antecedent rain leading up to the approach of Erika.


.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

There still remains an incredible amount of uncertainty with
respect to the eventual track of Erika. The general idea is that
Erika will weaken into a depression as it crosses over Cuba, and
that`s where models continue to diverge. From the 00z suite of
guidance, once Erika emerges into the Gulf the ECMWF lifts a weak
surface trough through the northeast Gulf, the GFS redevelops
Erika into a tropical storm and moves it north toward the Tri-
State region, while the HWRF completely dissipates the system. So
at this time, the range of possibilities lies between total
dissipation and a tropical storm at our doorstep sometime Tuesday
or Wednesday. Keeping in mind that the "range of possibilities"
has really been changing with every model run. The one thing that
there remains some confidence about is that we will likely receive
a couple days of heavy rainfall as Erika treks through the region.
Highest average rainfall amounts between 5-7 inches still seem
reasonable, and will most likely be across or east of the eastern
half of the region. Stay tuned...


.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

VFR conditions prevailed across the area at TAF issuance time,
although satellite revealed dense high cloud cover across most of
the area. Some periods of MVFR CIGS will be possible particularly
at TLH, VLD, and ABY today, although in general VFR conditions are
expected to dominate outside of thunderstorm activity. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the area,
mainly after 15Z and prior to 03Z. IFR visibilities would be
possible in any thunderstorm.


.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the
weekend before increasing in advance of Erika early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the next several days.


.Fire Weather...

Widespread rain and elevated relative humidity is expected today,
with no red flag conditions expected in the near future.


.Hydrology...

With around an inch of rain (on average) expected through the
weekend, no impacts are expected. As mentioned earlier, Erika has
the potential to bring 5 to 7 inches in some locations, provided
it remains a somewhat progressive system. Most basins should be
able to handle these amounts considering their low flows. However,
the target area (at this time) for the highest rainfall amounts is
across the southeast Big Bend of Florida where the Steinhatchee
River remains above normal flows. Should these amounts fall in
this region, there could be some significant impacts, even outside
of river basins in rural or urbanized areas. All of this is
highly dependent on the uncertain forecast track of Erika.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  72  92  75  91 /  70  30  40  20  60
Panama City   84  74  87  76  88 /  70  30  20  20  40
Dothan        85  70  91  72  92 /  60  40  30  20  40
Albany        85  71  89  72  91 /  70  50  40  20  40
Valdosta      86  72  90  73  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    87  74  89  75  89 /  50  30  60  30  60
Apalachicola  85  75  90  78  89 /  70  30  30  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN



000
FXUS62 KTBW 291332
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
STRONG U/L CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WHICH IS WELL DEPICTED IN W/V IMAGERY WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM PERSISTS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

U/L DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE U/L LOW WEST OF THE OUR REGION. THIS WILL AID IN LARGE SCALE
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. TBW 12Z SKEW-T INDICATES SOME DRY MID
LEVEL AIR WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH MAIN
THREAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR
PENINSULA.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL




000
FXUS62 KTBW 291332
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
STRONG U/L CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WHICH IS WELL DEPICTED IN W/V IMAGERY WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM PERSISTS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

U/L DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE U/L LOW WEST OF THE OUR REGION. THIS WILL AID IN LARGE SCALE
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. TBW 12Z SKEW-T INDICATES SOME DRY MID
LEVEL AIR WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH MAIN
THREAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR
PENINSULA.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL



000
FXUS62 KTBW 291332
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
932 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
STRONG U/L CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO WHICH IS WELL DEPICTED IN W/V IMAGERY WILL DRIFT VERY
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY. PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM PERSISTS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

U/L DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE U/L LOW WEST OF THE OUR REGION. THIS WILL AID IN LARGE SCALE
LIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. TBW 12Z SKEW-T INDICATES SOME DRY MID
LEVEL AIR WHICH MAY ALLOW A FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP WITH MAIN
THREAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS...WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR
PENINSULA.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...57/MCMICHAEL




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291240
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291240
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291240
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291240
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291240
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS



000
FXUS62 KJAX 291240
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KJAX 291230
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS



000
FXUS62 KJAX 291230
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
830 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.UPDATE...

SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS PREVAIL ACROSS SE GA
THIS MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF. WITH ADDITIONAL IMPULSES
CROSSING THE AREA LATER TODAY...ALONG WITH AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PER THE 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER FROM THE 12Z KJAX
SOUNDING...WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN. PER FCST
TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HAVE NUDGED
TIMING OF MAXIMUM POPS A BIT LATER...KEEPING POPS ACROSS NE FL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRECIP
COVERAGE WILL INHIBIT HEATING TODAY...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH PERHAPS
A FEW LOWER 90S FOR NORTH-CENTRAL FL WITH A BIT LESS PRECIP
COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS THIS AFTN...TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE REQUIRED
18-23Z. AREAS OF MVFR/LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
E.SE WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE...WITH CAUTION LEVEL SEAS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE
TNGT/SUNDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALLEN/COMBS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW MAY DELIVER SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SO VCSH WAS USED. MOST ACTIVITY
COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THUS
VCTS MAY NOT BE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. STORMS COULD
BE NUMEROUS AT APF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  81  90  79 /  60  70  70  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  88  79 /  60  70  80  80
MIAMI            91  78  88  78 /  60  70  80  90
NAPLES           93  77  90  76 /  60  30  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW MAY DELIVER SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SO VCSH WAS USED. MOST ACTIVITY
COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THUS
VCTS MAY NOT BE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. STORMS COULD
BE NUMEROUS AT APF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  81  90  79 /  60  70  70  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  88  79 /  60  70  80  80
MIAMI            91  78  88  78 /  60  70  80  90
NAPLES           93  77  90  76 /  60  30  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW MAY DELIVER SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SO VCSH WAS USED. MOST ACTIVITY
COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THUS
VCTS MAY NOT BE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. STORMS COULD
BE NUMEROUS AT APF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  81  90  79 /  60  70  70  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  88  79 /  60  70  80  80
MIAMI            91  78  88  78 /  60  70  80  90
NAPLES           93  77  90  76 /  60  30  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...21/KM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 291147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

DEEP EASTERLY FLOW MAY DELIVER SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SO VCSH WAS USED. MOST ACTIVITY
COULD BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON, THUS
VCTS MAY NOT BE VALID FOR THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. STORMS COULD
BE NUMEROUS AT APF THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  81  90  79 /  60  70  70  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  88  79 /  60  70  80  80
MIAMI            91  78  88  78 /  60  70  80  90
NAPLES           93  77  90  76 /  60  30  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMLB 290844
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
444 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...A CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

TODAY/TONIGHT...E/SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AND IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO THE NORTH AND ERIKA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WNW ACROSS EASTERN CUBA
AND INTO THE FL STRAITS (IF IT CAN SURVIVE ITS INTERACTION WITH
LAND). THIS FLOW WILL LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
TOWARD LAKE COUNTY LATE AFT/SUNSET. ELEVATED S/SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN TRANSPORT DEBRIS CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
BACK TOWARD THE COAST...ESPECIALLY TOWARD NRN BREVARD/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM 40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST FROM
CAPE SOUTHWARD UP TO 60 PERCENT FROM I-4 CORRIDOR WESTWARD. ENOUGH
DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AND UPPER 80S/90 DEG ALONG THE COAST.

INCREASING LOW LVL SE FLOW AND MOISTURE INTO LATE TONIGHT WILL
KEEP A CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
MAY STILL REACH THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST SHOULD KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 DEG IN SOME SPOTS
WITH MID 70S EXPECTED INLAND.

SUN-MON...GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AGREEABLE WITH A DAMPENED VERSION OF
ERIKA TRAVELING NW TOWARD THE FL KEYS SUN AND THEN SITUATED N OF
THE KEYS LATER IN THE DAY...ON ITS WAY INTO THE E GULF FOR MON.
EACH STRUGGLES TO HOLD ON TO THE FEATURE. OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
HOLDS ON TO IT FOR NOW AND TURNS IT TOWARD THE N TOWARD APALACHEE
BAY. WHETHER OPENED OR CLOSED... INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE THE LOCAL CONCERN AS TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTS WITH THE
SYSTEM AND COASTAL CONVERGENCE FURTHER ACCENTUATES OPPORTUNITY
WITH INCREASING E TO SE MARITIME WINDS. CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN STARTING ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
SUN INTO MON AND SPREADING N AND INLAND AS THE LOCAL ENVIRONMENT
FEELS THE INFLUENCES OF ERIKA. QPF PROBABILITIES BEAR THIS OUT.
THE EXTENT OF THE THREAT STILL DEPENDS ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND
ORGANIZATION OF ERIKA. A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING LEFT OF TRACK WILL
DIAL DOWN CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES WELL ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
PERIOD.

TUE-FRI...ERIKA FORECAST TO MOVE N THRU THE E GULF OF MEXICO WILL
HAVE MODULATING PERIPHERAL EFFECTS ON IT E FLANK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
FL PENINSULA. GFS AND ECMFW DON`T REALLY KNOW WHAT TO DO WITH THE
SYSTEM UPON REACHING THE PANHANDLE MID-WEEK AND SO WARRANTS
MONITORING. SE LOW LVL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW DAILY CONVECTION TO
TRANSITION INLAND MORE READILY. WILL RETURN POPS CLOSER TO NORMAL
BUT RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND MID-LVL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE STEERING FLOW
FROM ERIKA MAY OFFER CONVERGING CLUSTERS OF STORMS AWAY FROM
SITUATIONAL CLIMO. MAX TEMPS IN UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. MIN TEMPS IN
THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY PRODUCE TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS AT
SOME TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY KVRB-KSUA. OTHERWISE
VFR THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND THEN INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS
PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR REDUCTIONS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR TAF SITES
INTO MID TO LATE AFT.

LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN/STORMS INTO THE EVENING SHOULD DIMINISH BY
MIDNIGHT...BUT AN INCREASING MOIST SE FLOW WILL LEAD TO ISO-SCT SHRA
AND ISO TSRA OVER THE WATERS THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY/TONIGHT...E/SE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OVER THE WATERS TODAY
WILL INCREASE INTO TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ERIKA NEARING THE FL STRAITS. AMOUNT
OF WIND INCREASE MAY DEPEND ON STRENGTH OF ERIKA AT THE TIME (IF IT
SURVIVES INTERACTION WITH CUBA). HOWEVER WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM WEAK WITH WINDS UP TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE
FROM CAPE SOUTHWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

BUOY OBS INDICATE THE NWPS/WNAWAVE GUIDANCE IS ABOUT A FOOT TOO HIGH
FOR SEAS OFFSHORE. HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED DOWN A BIT ON WAVE HEIGHTS
INITIALLY. SEAS INITIALLY FORECAST 2-3 FEET THIS MORNING AND THEN
SWELLS/WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE TO GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS UP TO
6 FEET OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT.

E/SE MARITIME FLOW INCREASES SUN/MON AS ERIKA DRAWS NEARER TO THE
SW PENINSULA. INCREASE IN FLOW WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED STORMS WHICH WILL SUBSTANTIALLY DROP LOCAL
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES ACROSS THE WATERS S OF THE CAPE. WINDS 15 TO
20 KNOTS SUN WITH SEAS TO 6 FT THERE. WINDS WILL RELAX A LITTLE
GOING INTO MON BUT SEAS WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO SLACKEN AS
SMALL CRAFT WILL BE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION THRU MON. WINDS TO
15 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CAPE BUT WITH THE SAME 6 FT SEAS.

BOATING CONDITIONS MORE ACCEPTABLE BY MID-WEEK WITH SE WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  88  77  86  76 /  60  30  70  60
MCO  92  76  89  75 /  60  30  70  50
MLB  89  78  87  77 /  40  30  80  60
VRB  90  78  88  77 /  40  40  80  60
LEE  92  76  92  75 /  60  30  70  40
SFB  91  76  88  75 /  60  30  70  50
ORL  92  76  88  75 /  60  30  70  50
FPR  90  78  89  77 /  40  40  80  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM....DS




000
FXUS62 KKEY 290815
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS JUST WEST OF
HAITI...RIDING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPLY-STACKED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EASTERLY BREEZES HAVE FRESHENED THIS
MORNING...AVERAGING NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE MARINE OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS. A ROUND OF EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COOLED
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 AT MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS. THE RADAR IS NOW
ECHO FREE...ASIDE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAY SAL BANK.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (OR A WAVE-
LIKE VERSION) WILL SLIDE WEST ACROSS CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE APPROACHES...A MOIST...CONFLUENT...AND MORE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
WILL IMPINGE UPON THE FLORIDA KEYS. NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF
ERIKA WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF ENHANCERS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUD LINES...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ANDROS ISLAND. THE
AXIS OF ERIKA WILL REACH OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRAGGING WITH
HER PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MODERATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...RAIN CHANCES PEAK AT 70 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.
AS ERIKA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE CONFLUENT
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WILL RETAIN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND ERIKA RESULTING IN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES NEEDED THROUGH LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST INTO EASTERN
CUBA TODAY. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR ERIKA TAKES THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...POSSIBLY REACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...IF IT KEEPS ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MARINERS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA FOR
THE LIKELIHOOD OF CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AND A ROUND OR TWO OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME ACTIVITY. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED WEATHER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  79  88  79 / 50 60 70 60
MARATHON  93  79  89  79 / 50 60 70 60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290815
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS JUST WEST OF
HAITI...RIDING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPLY-STACKED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EASTERLY BREEZES HAVE FRESHENED THIS
MORNING...AVERAGING NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE MARINE OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS. A ROUND OF EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COOLED
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 AT MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS. THE RADAR IS NOW
ECHO FREE...ASIDE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAY SAL BANK.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (OR A WAVE-
LIKE VERSION) WILL SLIDE WEST ACROSS CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE APPROACHES...A MOIST...CONFLUENT...AND MORE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
WILL IMPINGE UPON THE FLORIDA KEYS. NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF
ERIKA WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF ENHANCERS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUD LINES...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ANDROS ISLAND. THE
AXIS OF ERIKA WILL REACH OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRAGGING WITH
HER PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MODERATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...RAIN CHANCES PEAK AT 70 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.
AS ERIKA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE CONFLUENT
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WILL RETAIN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND ERIKA RESULTING IN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES NEEDED THROUGH LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST INTO EASTERN
CUBA TODAY. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR ERIKA TAKES THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...POSSIBLY REACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...IF IT KEEPS ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MARINERS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA FOR
THE LIKELIHOOD OF CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AND A ROUND OR TWO OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME ACTIVITY. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED WEATHER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  79  88  79 / 50 60 70 60
MARATHON  93  79  89  79 / 50 60 70 60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290815
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS JUST WEST OF
HAITI...RIDING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPLY-STACKED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EASTERLY BREEZES HAVE FRESHENED THIS
MORNING...AVERAGING NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE MARINE OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS. A ROUND OF EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COOLED
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 AT MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS. THE RADAR IS NOW
ECHO FREE...ASIDE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAY SAL BANK.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (OR A WAVE-
LIKE VERSION) WILL SLIDE WEST ACROSS CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE APPROACHES...A MOIST...CONFLUENT...AND MORE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
WILL IMPINGE UPON THE FLORIDA KEYS. NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF
ERIKA WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF ENHANCERS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUD LINES...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ANDROS ISLAND. THE
AXIS OF ERIKA WILL REACH OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRAGGING WITH
HER PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MODERATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...RAIN CHANCES PEAK AT 70 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.
AS ERIKA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE CONFLUENT
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WILL RETAIN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND ERIKA RESULTING IN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES NEEDED THROUGH LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST INTO EASTERN
CUBA TODAY. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR ERIKA TAKES THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...POSSIBLY REACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...IF IT KEEPS ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MARINERS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA FOR
THE LIKELIHOOD OF CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AND A ROUND OR TWO OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME ACTIVITY. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED WEATHER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  79  88  79 / 50 60 70 60
MARATHON  93  79  89  79 / 50 60 70 60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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000
FXUS62 KTAE 290807
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
407 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Water vapor satellite loops prominently display a mid-upper level
low centered near the mouth of the Mississippi River, with a plume
of deeper moisture situated along the eastern periphery of the
circulation aloft. Within this moisture plume, fairly widespread
convective activity was ongoing as of 07Z over the adjacent coastal
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Other than a few light showers over
land, it was mostly dry. Fairly dense cirrus appeared to be
streaming north from the Gulf thunderstorm activity per IR
satellite, covering much of our forecast area.

With the deep moisture in place across the area, and an unusually
vigorous mid-upper level low for August just to our west, the
ingredients are there for a day with relatively high coverage of
rain across the area. Models show the strongest QG convergence
centered right over our forecast area. A potentially complicating
factor, though, is the amount of cloud cover that lingers into the
day. Persistent cloud cover could hinder destabilization. While some
rain showers would still be likely, the intensity and coverage of
rain might be lower than it would be otherwise. Additionally, some
high-resolution models show stratiform rain spreading north into the
area from Gulf convection this morning. Given how far south in the
Gulf the strongest convection is currently located, widespread rain
- at least early in the morning - seems somewhat unlikely. For now
we indicated likely PoPs (60-70%) over the southern half of the area
in the morning, with rain showers the dominant weather type. In the
afternoon, the likely PoPs were shifted into the northern part of
the area, with thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely as some
instability may be able to develop.

Regardless of the specific convective evolution, there should be
cloud cover or rain through much of the day which is expected to
hold high temperatures generally in the mid 80s. This is slightly
below normal. If Tallahassee`s high stays in the 80s, it would mark
the first back-to-back days with highs below 90 degrees since June
28th and 29th.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

By this evening, the +PV anomaly over the north-central Gulf will
have moved very little. The associated pressure trough will become
a bit more broad as another wave slides through the center of the
country, from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. This
will eventually increase the mid/upper levels southwesterly flow
and advect the northern Gulf anomaly through the Southeast on
Sunday, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Through the same
period, the secondary wave will stall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface a trough out ahead of the northern Gulf
anomaly will disturb the broad ridge covering the eastern CONUS.

We`ll likely have a fair amount of convection lingering into the
evening tonight. On Sunday, the western half of the Tri-State
region will be under a slightly drier airmass directly below the
+PV anomaly. To the east, the surface trough and upper forcing
contribution will initiate widespread convection. A weak surface
trough will remain along the western Atlantic coast on Monday,
forced by a ribbon of trailing PV behind the main anomaly. This
will be a focus for convective initiation, with storms spreading
west into the eastern Tri-State region in the afternoon. On
Monday, storms may have the potential to produce higher than
normal rain rates as PWATs over 2" combine with warm cloud depths
between 13-14kft coincide. This could provide an unfortunate
amount of antecedent rain leading up to the approach of Erika.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

There still remains an incredible amount of uncertainty with
respect to the eventual track of Erika. The general idea is that
Erika will weaken into a depression as it crosses over Cuba, and
that`s where models continue to diverge. From the 00z suite of
guidance, once Erika emerges into the Gulf the ECMWF lifts a weak
surface trough through the northeast Gulf, the GFS redevelops
Erika into a tropical storm and moves it north toward the Tri-
State region, while the HWRF completely dissipates the system. So
at this time, the range of possibilities lies between total
dissipation and a tropical storm at our doorstep sometime Tuesday
or Wednesday. Keeping in mind that the "range of possibilities"
has really been changing with every model run. The one thing that
there remains some confidence about is that we will likely receive
a couple days of heavy rainfall as Erika treks through the region.
Highest average rainfall amounts between 5-7 inches still seem
reasonable, and will most likely be across or east of the eastern
half of the region. Stay tuned...

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

VFR conditions prevailed across the area at TAF issuance time,
although satellite revealed dense high cloud cover across most of
the area. Some periods of MVFR CIGS will be possible particularly
at TLH, VLD, and ABY today, although in general VFR conditions are
expected to dominate outside of thunderstorm activity. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the area,
mainly after 15Z and prior to 03Z. IFR visibilities would be
possible in any thunderstorm.

&&

.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the
weekend before increasing in advance of Erika early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the next several days.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Widespread rain and elevated relative humidity is expected today,
with no red flag conditions expected in the near future.

&&

.Hydrology...

With around an inch of rain (on average) expected through the
weekend, no impacts are expected. As mentioned earlier, Erika has
the potential to bring 5 to 7 inches in some locations, provided
it remains a somewhat progressive system. Most basins should be
able to handle these amounts considering their low flows. However,
the target area (at this time) for the highest rainfall amounts is
across the southeast Big Bend of Florida where the Steinhatchee
River remains above normal flows. Should these amounts fall in
this region, there could be some significant impacts, even outside
of river basins in rural or urbanized areas. All of this is
highly dependent on the uncertain forecast track of Erika.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  72  92  75  91 /  70  30  40  20  60
Panama City   84  74  87  76  88 /  60  30  20  20  40
Dothan        85  70  91  72  92 /  60  40  30  20  40
Albany        85  71  89  72  91 /  70  50  40  20  40
Valdosta      86  72  90  73  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    87  74  89  75  89 /  50  30  60  30  60
Apalachicola  85  75  90  78  89 /  70  30  30  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN




000
FXUS62 KTAE 290807
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
407 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Water vapor satellite loops prominently display a mid-upper level
low centered near the mouth of the Mississippi River, with a plume
of deeper moisture situated along the eastern periphery of the
circulation aloft. Within this moisture plume, fairly widespread
convective activity was ongoing as of 07Z over the adjacent coastal
waters of the Gulf of Mexico. Other than a few light showers over
land, it was mostly dry. Fairly dense cirrus appeared to be
streaming north from the Gulf thunderstorm activity per IR
satellite, covering much of our forecast area.

With the deep moisture in place across the area, and an unusually
vigorous mid-upper level low for August just to our west, the
ingredients are there for a day with relatively high coverage of
rain across the area. Models show the strongest QG convergence
centered right over our forecast area. A potentially complicating
factor, though, is the amount of cloud cover that lingers into the
day. Persistent cloud cover could hinder destabilization. While some
rain showers would still be likely, the intensity and coverage of
rain might be lower than it would be otherwise. Additionally, some
high-resolution models show stratiform rain spreading north into the
area from Gulf convection this morning. Given how far south in the
Gulf the strongest convection is currently located, widespread rain
- at least early in the morning - seems somewhat unlikely. For now
we indicated likely PoPs (60-70%) over the southern half of the area
in the morning, with rain showers the dominant weather type. In the
afternoon, the likely PoPs were shifted into the northern part of
the area, with thunderstorms becoming increasingly likely as some
instability may be able to develop.

Regardless of the specific convective evolution, there should be
cloud cover or rain through much of the day which is expected to
hold high temperatures generally in the mid 80s. This is slightly
below normal. If Tallahassee`s high stays in the 80s, it would mark
the first back-to-back days with highs below 90 degrees since June
28th and 29th.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

By this evening, the +PV anomaly over the north-central Gulf will
have moved very little. The associated pressure trough will become
a bit more broad as another wave slides through the center of the
country, from the Great Lakes through the Southern Plains. This
will eventually increase the mid/upper levels southwesterly flow
and advect the northern Gulf anomaly through the Southeast on
Sunday, and off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Monday. Through the same
period, the secondary wave will stall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley. At the surface a trough out ahead of the northern Gulf
anomaly will disturb the broad ridge covering the eastern CONUS.

We`ll likely have a fair amount of convection lingering into the
evening tonight. On Sunday, the western half of the Tri-State
region will be under a slightly drier airmass directly below the
+PV anomaly. To the east, the surface trough and upper forcing
contribution will initiate widespread convection. A weak surface
trough will remain along the western Atlantic coast on Monday,
forced by a ribbon of trailing PV behind the main anomaly. This
will be a focus for convective initiation, with storms spreading
west into the eastern Tri-State region in the afternoon. On
Monday, storms may have the potential to produce higher than
normal rain rates as PWATs over 2" combine with warm cloud depths
between 13-14kft coincide. This could provide an unfortunate
amount of antecedent rain leading up to the approach of Erika.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

There still remains an incredible amount of uncertainty with
respect to the eventual track of Erika. The general idea is that
Erika will weaken into a depression as it crosses over Cuba, and
that`s where models continue to diverge. From the 00z suite of
guidance, once Erika emerges into the Gulf the ECMWF lifts a weak
surface trough through the northeast Gulf, the GFS redevelops
Erika into a tropical storm and moves it north toward the Tri-
State region, while the HWRF completely dissipates the system. So
at this time, the range of possibilities lies between total
dissipation and a tropical storm at our doorstep sometime Tuesday
or Wednesday. Keeping in mind that the "range of possibilities"
has really been changing with every model run. The one thing that
there remains some confidence about is that we will likely receive
a couple days of heavy rainfall as Erika treks through the region.
Highest average rainfall amounts between 5-7 inches still seem
reasonable, and will most likely be across or east of the eastern
half of the region. Stay tuned...

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Sunday]

VFR conditions prevailed across the area at TAF issuance time,
although satellite revealed dense high cloud cover across most of
the area. Some periods of MVFR CIGS will be possible particularly
at TLH, VLD, and ABY today, although in general VFR conditions are
expected to dominate outside of thunderstorm activity. Periods of
showers and thunderstorms are also expected across the area,
mainly after 15Z and prior to 03Z. IFR visibilities would be
possible in any thunderstorm.

&&

.Marine...

Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail through the
weekend before increasing in advance of Erika early next week.
Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the next several days.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Widespread rain and elevated relative humidity is expected today,
with no red flag conditions expected in the near future.

&&

.Hydrology...

With around an inch of rain (on average) expected through the
weekend, no impacts are expected. As mentioned earlier, Erika has
the potential to bring 5 to 7 inches in some locations, provided
it remains a somewhat progressive system. Most basins should be
able to handle these amounts considering their low flows. However,
the target area (at this time) for the highest rainfall amounts is
across the southeast Big Bend of Florida where the Steinhatchee
River remains above normal flows. Should these amounts fall in
this region, there could be some significant impacts, even outside
of river basins in rural or urbanized areas. All of this is
highly dependent on the uncertain forecast track of Erika.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   86  72  92  75  91 /  70  30  40  20  60
Panama City   84  74  87  76  88 /  60  30  20  20  40
Dothan        85  70  91  72  92 /  60  40  30  20  40
Albany        85  71  89  72  91 /  70  50  40  20  40
Valdosta      86  72  90  73  89 /  70  40  50  30  60
Cross City    87  74  89  75  89 /  50  30  60  30  60
Apalachicola  85  75  90  78  89 /  70  30  30  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN



000
FXUS62 KTBW 290750
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NOTE...IN GENERAL THE FORECAST IS COMPLETE...BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE
EARLY MORNING NHC UPDATE TO ISSUE MOST PRODUCTS AS WINDS AND
SEAS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IF THE FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY ARE ADJUSTED FOR ERIKA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST SOME AS
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH TODAY FOR THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE SOME TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION
SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASING SOME AN ISOLATED LATE NIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ON SUNDAY AN AREA OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND THEN MOSTLY BETWEEN 85 AND 90 ON
SUNDAY AS MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
ERIKA REMAINS THE FOCUS OF FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE MID/LONG TERM PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS AND OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
HAVE CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...KEEPING
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WATERS AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INTENSITY REMAINS
MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO REMAIN ABOVE 1010 MB AS ERIKA
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. EVEN IF WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN
DAMAGING...ERIKA IS STILL POISED TO BRING UNNEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
STILL SATURATED WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK...ERIKA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND LINGER OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...WITH WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
FLORIDA...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A LOT DEPENDS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. THE
PRESENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE WITH THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
AND INCREASE SOME TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE SOME DURING SUNDAY. LATEST
NHC FORECAST BRINGS ERIKA INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES IT NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ACROSS WATERS AS A TROPICAL
STORM THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE DURING
MIDWEEK AS ERIKA MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THREE DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TAMPA COULD MOVE UP FROM THE CURRENT 5TH WETTEST
AUGUST...2ND WETTEST JULY/AUGUST COMBINED...AND 12TH WETTEST
SUMMER (JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) SINCE RECORD BEGAN IN 1890.

  TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA
WETTEST AUGUST       WETTEST JUL/AUG      WETTEST SUMMER

1 18.59 IN 1949      1 28.31 IN 1960      1 43.03 IN 1945
2 17.83 IN 1898      2 26.73 IN 2015*     2 36.13 IN 2012
3 15.17 IN 1932      3 26.33 IN 1925      3 34.79 IN 1909
4 14.90 IN 2003      4 26.12 IN 1898      4 34.67 IN 1960
5 14.89 IN 2015*     5 24.53 IN 1906      5 33.71 IN 1925
                                        ...
                                         12 32.96 IN 2015*

* 2015 RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH AUGUST 28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  76  90  77 /  50  30  70  30
FMY  92  75  89  76 /  60  30  80  50
GIF  91  75  89  75 /  60  30  80  40
SRQ  91  76  90  77 /  40  30  70  30
BKV  91  74  90  74 /  60  30  60  20
SPG  90  78  89  78 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING



000
FXUS62 KTBW 290750
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NOTE...IN GENERAL THE FORECAST IS COMPLETE...BUT WILL WAIT FOR THE
EARLY MORNING NHC UPDATE TO ISSUE MOST PRODUCTS AS WINDS AND
SEAS COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IF THE FORECAST TRACK AND
INTENSITY ARE ADJUSTED FOR ERIKA.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT WEST SOME AS
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE ERIKA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE SUNDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE THE TROUGH
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH TODAY FOR THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE SOME TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION
SHOULD WIND DOWN THIS EVENING...BUT WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW
INCREASING SOME AN ISOLATED LATE NIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. ON SUNDAY AN AREA OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST NORTHWEST DURING
THE DAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...AND THEN MOSTLY BETWEEN 85 AND 90 ON
SUNDAY AS MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

.MID/LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY)...
ERIKA REMAINS THE FOCUS OF FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE MID/LONG TERM PERIOD. MODEL CONSENSUS AND OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
HAVE CONTINUED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...KEEPING
THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF WATERS AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. INTENSITY REMAINS
MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
FORECASTING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO REMAIN ABOVE 1010 MB AS ERIKA
MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. EVEN IF WIND SPEEDS ARE LESS THAN
DAMAGING...ERIKA IS STILL POISED TO BRING UNNEEDED RAINFALL TO THE
STILL SATURATED WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK...ERIKA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AND LINGER OVER
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...WITH WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
FLORIDA...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MVFR/LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A LOT DEPENDS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERIKA. THE
PRESENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE WITH THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERLY WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
AND INCREASE SOME TONIGHT THEN SUBSIDE SOME DURING SUNDAY. LATEST
NHC FORECAST BRINGS ERIKA INTO THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MOVES IT NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ACROSS WATERS AS A TROPICAL
STORM THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE DURING
MIDWEEK AS ERIKA MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A MOIST
TROPICAL AIR MASS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH THREE DAYS LEFT IN AUGUST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL TAMPA COULD MOVE UP FROM THE CURRENT 5TH WETTEST
AUGUST...2ND WETTEST JULY/AUGUST COMBINED...AND 12TH WETTEST
SUMMER (JUNE/JULY/AUGUST) SINCE RECORD BEGAN IN 1890.

  TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA           TAMPA AREA
WETTEST AUGUST       WETTEST JUL/AUG      WETTEST SUMMER

1 18.59 IN 1949      1 28.31 IN 1960      1 43.03 IN 1945
2 17.83 IN 1898      2 26.73 IN 2015*     2 36.13 IN 2012
3 15.17 IN 1932      3 26.33 IN 1925      3 34.79 IN 1909
4 14.90 IN 2003      4 26.12 IN 1898      4 34.67 IN 1960
5 14.89 IN 2015*     5 24.53 IN 1906      5 33.71 IN 1925
                                        ...
                                         12 32.96 IN 2015*

* 2015 RAINFALL TOTAL THROUGH AUGUST 28

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  90  76  90  77 /  50  30  70  30
FMY  92  75  89  76 /  60  30  80  50
GIF  91  75  89  75 /  60  30  80  40
SRQ  91  76  90  77 /  40  30  70  30
BKV  91  74  90  74 /  60  30  60  20
SPG  90  78  89  78 /  50  30  60  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...69/CLOSE
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...18/FLEMING




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290732
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY, T.S. ERIKA IS MOVING WEST OVER HAITI AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT. A DRIER SLOT OF AIR ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY BUT PWAT`S ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 2" WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW
AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WILL STEER MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND LAKE REGIONS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ERIKA PASSES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PENINSULA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT OVERALL GENERAL TOTALS WILL BE
IN THE RANGE OF 2-4" THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF OUTER BANDS SET UP ACROSS ANY ONE AREA. THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO TO UPDATE
POSSIBLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION, THE OUTER BANDS WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED ERIKA CAN BECOME BUT STRONG WIND
FIELDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MID WEEK AND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOWER STEERING FLOW WITH MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER TYPE DIURNAL CYCLE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START OFF EASTERLY AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF
ERIKA WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  81  90  79 /  60  70  70  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  88  79 /  60  70  80  80
MIAMI            91  78  88  78 /  60  70  80  90
NAPLES           93  77  90  76 /  60  30  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 290732 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...CHANGED WORDING IN LAST SENTENCE OF FIRST PARAGRAPH...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY, T.S. ERIKA IS MOVING WEST OVER HAITI AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT. A DRIER SLOT OF AIR ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY BUT PWAT`S ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 2" WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW
AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WILL STEER MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND LAKE REGIONS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ERIKA PASSES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PENINSULA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT OVERALL GENERAL TOTALS WILL BE
IN THE RANGE OF 2-4" THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF OUTER BANDS SET UP ACROSS ANY ONE AREA. THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO TO UPDATE
POSSIBLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION, THE OUTER BANDS WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED ERIKA CAN BECOME BUT STRONG WIND
FIELDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MID WEEK AND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOWER STEERING FLOW WITH MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER TYPE DIURNAL CYCLE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START OFF EASTERLY AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF
ERIKA WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  81  90  79 /  60  70  70  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  88  79 /  60  70  80  80
MIAMI            91  78  88  78 /  60  70  80  90
NAPLES           93  77  90  76 /  60  30  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 290732 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...CHANGED WORDING IN LAST SENTENCE OF FIRST PARAGRAPH...

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY, T.S. ERIKA IS MOVING WEST OVER HAITI AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT. A DRIER SLOT OF AIR ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY BUT PWAT`S ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 2" WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW
AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WILL STEER MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND LAKE REGIONS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ERIKA PASSES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PENINSULA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT OVERALL GENERAL TOTALS WILL BE
IN THE RANGE OF 2-4" THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF OUTER BANDS SET UP ACROSS ANY ONE AREA. THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO TO UPDATE
POSSIBLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION, THE OUTER BANDS WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED ERIKA CAN BECOME BUT STRONG WIND
FIELDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MID WEEK AND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOWER STEERING FLOW WITH MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER TYPE DIURNAL CYCLE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START OFF EASTERLY AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF
ERIKA WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  81  90  79 /  60  70  70  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  88  79 /  60  70  80  80
MIAMI            91  78  88  78 /  60  70  80  90
NAPLES           93  77  90  76 /  60  30  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290732
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY, T.S. ERIKA IS MOVING WEST OVER HAITI AND WILL MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT. A DRIER SLOT OF AIR ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF
ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY BUT PWAT`S ARE STILL
FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO 2" WITH MORE OF A SOUTHEAST STEERING FLOW
AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WILL STEER MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND LAKE REGIONS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS ERIKA PASSES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PENINSULA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT OVERALL GENERAL TOTALS WILL BE
IN THE RANGE OF 2-4" THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY IF OUTER BANDS SET UP ACROSS ANY ONE AREA. THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO TO UPDATE
POSSIBLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IN ADDITION, THE OUTER BANDS WILL BE
AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT
WILL DEPEND ON HOW ORGANIZED ERIKA CAN BECOME BUT STRONG WIND
FIELDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF BY MID WEEK AND
INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOWER STEERING FLOW WITH MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER TYPE DIURNAL CYCLE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL START OFF EASTERLY AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF
ERIKA WITH THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR INCREASING SEAS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  81  90  79 /  60  70  70  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  88  79 /  60  70  80  80
MIAMI            91  78  88  78 /  60  70  80  90
NAPLES           93  77  90  76 /  60  30  60  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KJAX 290701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. LIKELY TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION BUT SOME PATCHY 3-5 MILE
VSBYS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN ZFP/GRIDS OR HWO. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

TODAY...FAVORABLE CONDS FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS AS MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER LOWER MS VALLEY WITH
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AND EVENING SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM WIDESPREAD PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS
UPPER LEVEL AIR PATTERN FAVORS UPWARD MOTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND EXPECT THIS TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP TRIGGER
RAINFALL COVERAGE OF 60-80% AREA-WIDE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH OR SO
WITH PRIMARY THREAT STILL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING AND
TRAINING OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OF COURSE A FEW COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING DUE TO DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO HELP INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -7C
TO -8C RANGE...STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. EXPECT
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SE GA COASTAL
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...FIRST ACROSS INLD SE GA...THEN
ACROSS INLD NE FL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE MID 80S ALONG
THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE
READINGS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL WHERE CONVECTION
WILL KICK OFF LAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT INLAND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY FADE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND GENERALLY ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW
IMPACTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT TIMES...AND WITH THE EXTREMELY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN COOLED LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AGAIN.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND MONDAY/...
A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WE LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE LATEST EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH TAKES WHAT IS LEFT
OF ERIKA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS MAINLY AN OPEN WAVE
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO OUR AREA. DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHILE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN MORE EASTERLY. INCREASED COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COASTAL CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN LIKELY REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT RAIN
IS LIKELY AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...WITH A
FOCUS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE
SEABREEZES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED
SOME LIGHT FOG AT KGNV WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUD DECK TO ACCOUNT
FOR SIMILAR CONDS TO YDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AROUND
SUNRISE. WITH PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR
VCSH TO FORM THIS MORNING WITH VCTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
HOLDING OFF FROM PLACING TEMPO GROUPS IN TAF SET EVEN WITH 60-70%
POPS SINCE STILL JUST A GUESS TO PREDICT EXACT 2-4 HR TIME FRAME
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE FOR ANY SPECIFIC TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT COULD SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY PUSHED
SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE THIS WEEKEND AND WILL POSSIBLY REACH
4-6 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE SCEC HEADLINES REQUIRED.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SURF GENERALLY 2-4 FT.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: FULL MOON PEAKS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ATLC COAST AND LOWER ST JOHNS
RIVER WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING TO REACH COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABUNDANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP GROUND CONDITIONS
NEAR SATURATION IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE BLACK CREEK AND UPPER SANTA
FE RIVER BASIN ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THIS AUGUST. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ALREADY ISSUED ON
FRIDAY HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FROM
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY CERTAIN RANGE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

WATER LEVELS FOR NE FL/SE GA RIVERS AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AND ST
JOHNS RIVER TIDAL STATIONS CAN BE FOUND AT...

WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/



000
FXUS62 KJAX 290701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. LIKELY TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION BUT SOME PATCHY 3-5 MILE
VSBYS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN ZFP/GRIDS OR HWO. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

TODAY...FAVORABLE CONDS FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS AS MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER LOWER MS VALLEY WITH
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AND EVENING SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM WIDESPREAD PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS
UPPER LEVEL AIR PATTERN FAVORS UPWARD MOTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND EXPECT THIS TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP TRIGGER
RAINFALL COVERAGE OF 60-80% AREA-WIDE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH OR SO
WITH PRIMARY THREAT STILL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING AND
TRAINING OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OF COURSE A FEW COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING DUE TO DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO HELP INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -7C
TO -8C RANGE...STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. EXPECT
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SE GA COASTAL
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...FIRST ACROSS INLD SE GA...THEN
ACROSS INLD NE FL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE MID 80S ALONG
THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE
READINGS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL WHERE CONVECTION
WILL KICK OFF LAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT INLAND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY FADE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND GENERALLY ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW
IMPACTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT TIMES...AND WITH THE EXTREMELY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN COOLED LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AGAIN.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND MONDAY/...
A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WE LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE LATEST EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH TAKES WHAT IS LEFT
OF ERIKA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS MAINLY AN OPEN WAVE
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO OUR AREA. DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHILE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN MORE EASTERLY. INCREASED COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COASTAL CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN LIKELY REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT RAIN
IS LIKELY AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...WITH A
FOCUS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE
SEABREEZES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED
SOME LIGHT FOG AT KGNV WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUD DECK TO ACCOUNT
FOR SIMILAR CONDS TO YDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AROUND
SUNRISE. WITH PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR
VCSH TO FORM THIS MORNING WITH VCTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
HOLDING OFF FROM PLACING TEMPO GROUPS IN TAF SET EVEN WITH 60-70%
POPS SINCE STILL JUST A GUESS TO PREDICT EXACT 2-4 HR TIME FRAME
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE FOR ANY SPECIFIC TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT COULD SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY PUSHED
SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE THIS WEEKEND AND WILL POSSIBLY REACH
4-6 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE SCEC HEADLINES REQUIRED.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SURF GENERALLY 2-4 FT.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: FULL MOON PEAKS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ATLC COAST AND LOWER ST JOHNS
RIVER WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING TO REACH COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABUNDANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP GROUND CONDITIONS
NEAR SATURATION IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE BLACK CREEK AND UPPER SANTA
FE RIVER BASIN ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THIS AUGUST. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ALREADY ISSUED ON
FRIDAY HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FROM
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY CERTAIN RANGE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

WATER LEVELS FOR NE FL/SE GA RIVERS AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AND ST
JOHNS RIVER TIDAL STATIONS CAN BE FOUND AT...

WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/



000
FXUS62 KJAX 290701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. LIKELY TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION BUT SOME PATCHY 3-5 MILE
VSBYS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN ZFP/GRIDS OR HWO. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

TODAY...FAVORABLE CONDS FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS AS MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER LOWER MS VALLEY WITH
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AND EVENING SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM WIDESPREAD PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS
UPPER LEVEL AIR PATTERN FAVORS UPWARD MOTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND EXPECT THIS TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP TRIGGER
RAINFALL COVERAGE OF 60-80% AREA-WIDE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH OR SO
WITH PRIMARY THREAT STILL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING AND
TRAINING OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OF COURSE A FEW COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING DUE TO DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO HELP INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -7C
TO -8C RANGE...STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. EXPECT
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SE GA COASTAL
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...FIRST ACROSS INLD SE GA...THEN
ACROSS INLD NE FL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE MID 80S ALONG
THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE
READINGS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL WHERE CONVECTION
WILL KICK OFF LAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT INLAND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY FADE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND GENERALLY ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW
IMPACTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT TIMES...AND WITH THE EXTREMELY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN COOLED LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AGAIN.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND MONDAY/...
A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WE LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE LATEST EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH TAKES WHAT IS LEFT
OF ERIKA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS MAINLY AN OPEN WAVE
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO OUR AREA. DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHILE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN MORE EASTERLY. INCREASED COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COASTAL CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN LIKELY REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT RAIN
IS LIKELY AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...WITH A
FOCUS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE
SEABREEZES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED
SOME LIGHT FOG AT KGNV WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUD DECK TO ACCOUNT
FOR SIMILAR CONDS TO YDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AROUND
SUNRISE. WITH PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR
VCSH TO FORM THIS MORNING WITH VCTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
HOLDING OFF FROM PLACING TEMPO GROUPS IN TAF SET EVEN WITH 60-70%
POPS SINCE STILL JUST A GUESS TO PREDICT EXACT 2-4 HR TIME FRAME
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE FOR ANY SPECIFIC TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT COULD SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY PUSHED
SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE THIS WEEKEND AND WILL POSSIBLY REACH
4-6 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE SCEC HEADLINES REQUIRED.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SURF GENERALLY 2-4 FT.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: FULL MOON PEAKS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ATLC COAST AND LOWER ST JOHNS
RIVER WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING TO REACH COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABUNDANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP GROUND CONDITIONS
NEAR SATURATION IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE BLACK CREEK AND UPPER SANTA
FE RIVER BASIN ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THIS AUGUST. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ALREADY ISSUED ON
FRIDAY HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FROM
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY CERTAIN RANGE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

WATER LEVELS FOR NE FL/SE GA RIVERS AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AND ST
JOHNS RIVER TIDAL STATIONS CAN BE FOUND AT...

WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/



000
FXUS62 KJAX 290701
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
301 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ERIKA MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FLOOD
THREAT NEXT WEEK...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

EARLY THIS MORNING...ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MOIST SOUTHEAST
STEERING FLOW WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE
ATLC COASTAL WATERS AS WELL. LIKELY TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT FOG FORMATION BUT SOME PATCHY 3-5 MILE
VSBYS POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN ZFP/GRIDS OR HWO. TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S.

TODAY...FAVORABLE CONDS FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS AS MID/UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER LOWER MS VALLEY WITH
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NE FL/SE GA AND EVENING SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM WIDESPREAD PRECIP WATER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO 2 INCHES. THIS
UPPER LEVEL AIR PATTERN FAVORS UPWARD MOTION AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT
AND EXPECT THIS TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO HELP TRIGGER
RAINFALL COVERAGE OF 60-80% AREA-WIDE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
MOVE IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO NORTH MOTION AROUND 10-15 MPH OR SO
WITH PRIMARY THREAT STILL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING AND
TRAINING OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...OF COURSE A FEW COULD BE
STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING DUE TO DECENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES TO HELP INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS IN THE -7C
TO -8C RANGE...STILL COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST. EXPECT
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTO SE GA COASTAL
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND THROUGH
THE DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...FIRST ACROSS INLD SE GA...THEN
ACROSS INLD NE FL BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...IN THE MID 80S ALONG
THE COAST...AND UPPER 80S INLAND...WITH A FEW NEAR 90 DEGREE
READINGS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR OF INLD NE FL WHERE CONVECTION
WILL KICK OFF LAST.

TONIGHT...EXPECT INLAND SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY FADE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND GENERALLY ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH
ACTIVITY SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A FEW
IMPACTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT TIMES...AND WITH THE EXTREMELY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN COOLED LOWS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AGAIN.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND MONDAY/...
A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE AREA
AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WET PATTERN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. WE LEANED
HEAVILY ON THE LATEST EUROPEAN SOLUTION WHICH TAKES WHAT IS LEFT
OF ERIKA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS MAINLY AN OPEN WAVE
WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTH INTO OUR AREA. DEEP
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHILE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE REMAIN MORE EASTERLY. INCREASED COASTAL
CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING IN
FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COASTAL CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN LIKELY REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE ALTHOUGH SOME OVERNIGHT RAIN
IS LIKELY AT THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A DIURNAL PATTERN
OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...WITH A
FOCUS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE
SEABREEZES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE PLACED
SOME LIGHT FOG AT KGNV WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUD DECK TO ACCOUNT
FOR SIMILAR CONDS TO YDAY MORNING...BUT OVERALL THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION AROUND
SUNRISE. WITH PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IT WONT TAKE LONG FOR
VCSH TO FORM THIS MORNING WITH VCTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STILL
HOLDING OFF FROM PLACING TEMPO GROUPS IN TAF SET EVEN WITH 60-70%
POPS SINCE STILL JUST A GUESS TO PREDICT EXACT 2-4 HR TIME FRAME
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE FOR ANY SPECIFIC TSTM ACTIVITY...BUT COULD SEE
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
E/SE ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 15 KNOTS. THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS ALREADY PUSHED
SEAS INTO THE 3-5 FT RANGE THIS WEEKEND AND WILL POSSIBLY REACH
4-6 FT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE SCEC HEADLINES REQUIRED.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK IN THE ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. SURF GENERALLY 2-4 FT.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING: FULL MOON PEAKS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ALONG THE ATLC COAST AND LOWER ST JOHNS
RIVER WHICH ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BY THE ONSHORE FLOW BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING TO REACH COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABUNDANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP GROUND CONDITIONS
NEAR SATURATION IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE BLACK CREEK AND UPPER SANTA
FE RIVER BASIN ARE ALREADY AT ELEVATED WATER LEVELS DUE TO ABOVE
NORMAL RAINFALL THIS AUGUST. HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ALREADY ISSUED ON
FRIDAY HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING FROM
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION NEXT
WEEK. STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE ANY CERTAIN RANGE OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

WATER LEVELS FOR NE FL/SE GA RIVERS AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AND ST
JOHNS RIVER TIDAL STATIONS CAN BE FOUND AT...

WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAX

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  70  89  72 /  70  60  50  20
SSI  85  77  86  75 /  70  70  60  50
JAX  88  73  88  73 /  80  60  60  30
SGJ  87  75  86  76 /  70  50  70  50
GNV  89  72  90  72 /  70  40  60  20
OCF  90  72  90  72 /  70  40  70  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/SHULER/



000
FXUS62 KMFL 290547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, SITTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WILL KEEP
THE EAST FLOW TODAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP IN THE MORNING TO 10-15
KTS ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT SPEED,
EVEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WHILE THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THEY MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. THERE COULD STILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT WHICH COULD WORK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS THIS EVENING WITH ANYTIME ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS NHC IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TO MOVE TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE VICINITY OF CUBA. DRY AIR AHEAD OF
ERIKA SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR POPS OVER THE AREA TO BE LOWER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

AT THIS TIME...NHC IS FORECASTING ERIKA TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NORTHWARD UP THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE
WET SIDE OF ERIKA AND COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NHC IS FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO BE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE...THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE POPS IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE.

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE EASTERLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH
OF ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  80  87  77 /  30  50  80  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  82  87  78 /  20  50  80  80
MIAMI            92  81  88  78 /  30  50  80  80
NAPLES           93  78  88  77 /  40  30  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, SITTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WILL KEEP
THE EAST FLOW TODAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP IN THE MORNING TO 10-15
KTS ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT SPEED,
EVEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WHILE THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THEY MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. THERE COULD STILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT WHICH COULD WORK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS THIS EVENING WITH ANYTIME ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS NHC IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TO MOVE TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE VICINITY OF CUBA. DRY AIR AHEAD OF
ERIKA SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR POPS OVER THE AREA TO BE LOWER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

AT THIS TIME...NHC IS FORECASTING ERIKA TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NORTHWARD UP THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE
WET SIDE OF ERIKA AND COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NHC IS FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO BE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE...THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE POPS IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE.

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE EASTERLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH
OF ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  80  87  77 /  30  50  80  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  82  87  78 /  20  50  80  80
MIAMI            92  81  88  78 /  30  50  80  80
NAPLES           93  78  88  77 /  40  30  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, SITTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WILL KEEP
THE EAST FLOW TODAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP IN THE MORNING TO 10-15
KTS ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT SPEED,
EVEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WHILE THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THEY MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. THERE COULD STILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT WHICH COULD WORK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS THIS EVENING WITH ANYTIME ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS NHC IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TO MOVE TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE VICINITY OF CUBA. DRY AIR AHEAD OF
ERIKA SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR POPS OVER THE AREA TO BE LOWER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

AT THIS TIME...NHC IS FORECASTING ERIKA TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NORTHWARD UP THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE
WET SIDE OF ERIKA AND COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NHC IS FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO BE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE...THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE POPS IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE.

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE EASTERLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH
OF ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  80  87  77 /  30  50  80  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  82  87  78 /  20  50  80  80
MIAMI            92  81  88  78 /  30  50  80  80
NAPLES           93  78  88  77 /  40  30  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, SITTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WILL KEEP
THE EAST FLOW TODAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP IN THE MORNING TO 10-15
KTS ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT SPEED,
EVEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WHILE THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THEY MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. THERE COULD STILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT WHICH COULD WORK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS THIS EVENING WITH ANYTIME ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS NHC IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TO MOVE TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE VICINITY OF CUBA. DRY AIR AHEAD OF
ERIKA SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR POPS OVER THE AREA TO BE LOWER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

AT THIS TIME...NHC IS FORECASTING ERIKA TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NORTHWARD UP THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE
WET SIDE OF ERIKA AND COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NHC IS FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO BE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE...THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE POPS IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE.

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE EASTERLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH
OF ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  80  87  77 /  30  50  80  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  82  87  78 /  20  50  80  80
MIAMI            92  81  88  78 /  30  50  80  80
NAPLES           93  78  88  77 /  40  30  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, SITTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WILL KEEP
THE EAST FLOW TODAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP IN THE MORNING TO 10-15
KTS ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT SPEED,
EVEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WHILE THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THEY MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. THERE COULD STILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT WHICH COULD WORK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS THIS EVENING WITH ANYTIME ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS NHC IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TO MOVE TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE VICINITY OF CUBA. DRY AIR AHEAD OF
ERIKA SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR POPS OVER THE AREA TO BE LOWER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

AT THIS TIME...NHC IS FORECASTING ERIKA TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NORTHWARD UP THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE
WET SIDE OF ERIKA AND COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NHC IS FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO BE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE...THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE POPS IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE.

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE EASTERLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH
OF ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  80  87  77 /  30  50  80  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  82  87  78 /  20  50  80  80
MIAMI            92  81  88  78 /  30  50  80  80
NAPLES           93  78  88  77 /  40  30  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE, SITTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WILL KEEP
THE EAST FLOW TODAY. THE WIND WILL PICK UP IN THE MORNING TO 10-15
KTS ALONG THE COAST. THIS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY CONSTANT SPEED,
EVEN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WHILE THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY, MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, THEY MAY STILL BE ABLE
TO AFFECT ALL TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
EXCEPT FOR BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. THERE COULD STILL BE A
FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT WHICH COULD WORK INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS THIS EVENING WITH ANYTIME ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. REST
OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA SHOULD DISSIPATE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS NHC IS FORECASTING TROPICAL STORM ERIKA TO MOVE TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THE VICINITY OF CUBA. DRY AIR AHEAD OF
ERIKA SHOULD BE MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR POPS OVER THE AREA TO BE LOWER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

AT THIS TIME...NHC IS FORECASTING ERIKA TO MOVE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NORTHWARD UP THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUT SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE
WET SIDE OF ERIKA AND COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

NHC IS FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO BE NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE SOUTHERLY. THEREFORE...THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE POPS IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RANGE.

MARINE...
WINDS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE EASTERLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WINDS AND SEAS FOR SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND PATH
OF ERIKA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  80  87  77 /  30  50  80  80
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  82  87  78 /  20  50  80  80
MIAMI            92  81  88  78 /  30  50  80  80
NAPLES           93  78  88  77 /  40  30  70  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI



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