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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241906
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
306 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE KEYS HAS
RESULTED IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX
UNDER AN ELEVATED STABLE LAYER IS PRODUCING A LARGE MID DECK ACROSS
THE LOWER KEYS AND ADJACENT WATERS. ELSEWHERE...SKIES WERE MOSTLY
SUNNY. NO SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ON LOCAL RADARS...DUE TO A STILL
FAIRLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.

FORECAST - FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BROADER AREA. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT...AND WHILE GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST...THEY WILL AT TIMES
BECOME VARIABLE. EXPECT DAY TIME HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR NORMAL. INTERIOR AND PROTECTED AREAS
MAY RADIATE TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DUE TO BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE WEAK PREVAILING FLOW. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIM TO NON THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING TONIGHT. THE SWATH OF
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX ALONG WITH A WEAKENING INHIBITION
LAYER...AND SURFACE WINDS BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE CONVERGENT DUE TO
EFFECTS OF DAY TIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS.

A STRONG AND VERY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
COUNTRYS MID SECTION WILL RESULT IN CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND CORRESPONDING FALLING PRESSURES IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN RESPONSE...THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
INCREASE PUSHING UP WINDS TO A GENTLE TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING...PERSISTING INTO MID WEEK. THIS STRONGER
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER 70S...AND WILL HOLD OVERNIGHT LOWS TO SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. LOCALIZED RIDGING THROUGH THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS WILL
KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY AT BAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS KEYS WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AND WELL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...TENDING A BIT STRONGER OUT OF
A PRIMARILY EASTERLY DIRECTION. SOUTHEAST BREEZES WINDS INCREASE TO A
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AS PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THESE MODERATE BREEZES WILL
PERSIST INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A MOISTENING TREND AT LOW ALTITUDES AFTER 25/00Z WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION...MOVING FROM ABOUT 190/08KT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS MAY
BE IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER EYW OR MTH OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
25/06Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT IS TOO SMALL FOR INCLUSION IN 18Z TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  84  75  83 / 10 -  -  -
MARATHON  74  86  75  86 / 10 -  -  -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST





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000
FXUS62 KTAE 241905
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Mid and upper level ridging will be advancing east of the Tri-State
region through the night as a shortwave moves into the Tennessee
Valley. At the surface, flow is generally out of the south along the
western periphery of high pressure. Additionally, the front that has
been stalled near the state line for the past day or so has weakened
a bit locally and is starting to drift northward. On the south side
of the front, and especially behind the seabreeze front, greater
moisture is present and will allow for another night of low clouds
and fog. Expect the fog to be the most dense earlier in the night
west of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee Rivers as winds will
gradually pick up in the more disturbed area between departing high
pressure and approaching low pressure. By sunrise, there should be
more of a low cloud deck to the west, and fog to the east.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A short wave will pass well north of the region on Friday as it
swings from the Ohio Valley to the Mid Atlantic. The associated cold
front will reach the northwestern part of the forecast area in the
afternoon and then become stationary between I-10 and the coast
Friday night. There will be little forcing for ascent over the
weakening boundary and PoPs were kept in the silent 10 category. The
front will begin lifting north again as a warm front on Saturday as
the yet another low pressure system deepens over the Great Plains.
Temps will generally be about 3-5 degrees above normal through the
period.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Upper level ridging is in place for the start of the period with a
surface high off to the east keeping the area dry. An upper level
low over the central plains will strengthen and become cutoff as it
moves slowly to the east. Moisture and instability will return to
the region Monday and the associated front will move through
Wednesday afternoon and evening. A low level jet will be over the
area with wind speeds up to 45 knots on Tuesday. GFS and Euro are
showing SBCAPE increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg. Deep layer shear will
increase to 35-40 kts over our far western zones with most of that
in the 0-1 km layer. Therefore, some storms could be strong to
marginally severe during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday.
Storms will linger into Wednesday until frontal passage brings in
some drier air.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]

IFR visibilities are expected once again tonight, primarily at KVLD,
KTLH, and KECP. Visibility restrictions will gradually switch over
to ceiling restrictions at KECP and KDHN after midnight. Low clouds
will linger through at least the first part of the day at KDHN, and
scatter to VFR a few hours after sunrise elsewhere. A mid level
cloud deck will accompany an approaching front across the region
tomorrow, with breezy westerly winds.

&&

.Marine...

Onshore winds will generally be light with some enhancement near the
coast in the afternoon sea breeze. Winds will increase early next
week with cautionary conditions possible by Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Minimum relative humidities will be in the 30s and 40s and will
not be low enough to reach red flag criteria. Dispersion values
will be in the 60s for most of the area tomorrow, decreasing to
the 30s for Saturday.

&&

.Hydrology...

Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage. Most
area rivers have already crested with the exception of the
Withlacoochee in Florida and the Suwannee River, where river levels
will continue to rise slowly for the remainder of the week. The next
chance for any significant rainfall is next Tuesday. At this time,
QPF values are low, around 0.75-1.25 inches.


The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   62  84  60  86  58 /  10  10   0   0   0
Panama City   64  78  63  80  64 /  10  10  10   0  10
Dothan        60  83  58  86  59 /  10  10   0   0   0
Albany        59  84  58  86  57 /  10  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      58  85  60  86  57 /  10  10  10   0   0
Cross City    62  83  60  84  58 /  10  10  10   0  10
Apalachicola  64  78  63  79  62 /  10  10  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WESTON/WOOL
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...MOORE






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000
FXUS62 KTBW 241859
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
259 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SEEN ALONG THE
COAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STILL ANTICIPATING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND ANY THAT DO FORM SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FOR
TONIGHT...SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG AGAIN...THOUGH AT LEAST ONE
LOCAL MODEL IS NOT HITTING IT QUITE AS HARD AS IT WAS FOR THIS
MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALSO SLOWLY BUILDING. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY AND WILL ALSO SUPPORT WARM
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S CLOSE
TO THE COAST WITH UPPER 80S AND AROUND 90 INLAND...AND THEN WILL
BE EVEN A BIT WARMER FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW DEVELOPING LEADING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADING
TO THE THREAT OF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND.
FOR NOW HAVE LEFT 20 POPS FOR EACH DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING
IN THE LOWER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCES DURING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONLY POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WOULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG AT KLAL AND KPGD...BUT
CURRENTLY THINKING THAT THERE WILL BE LESS FOG THAN WHAT WE SAW
EARLY THIS MORNING...SO KEPT VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OVER
INTERIOR LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT OTHER
CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MET SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  84  68  84 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  66  86  66  89 /  10  10   0  10
GIF  66  87  65  88 /  20  10   0  10
SRQ  63  80  64  83 /   0  10   0   0
BKV  58  85  60  86 /  10  10   0   0
SPG  68  82  69  84 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...69/CLOSE





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000
FXUS62 KMFL 241846
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A 500MB SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH A
LINGERING BOUNDARY THAT IS LAYING ACROSS THE WATERS, EAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS IT DOES, IT WILL SPARK OFF SOME MORNING SHOWERS. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PUSH ONSHORE AND BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, FROM BROWARD COUNTY SOUTH.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 500MB
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER FLORIDA AND UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND A WARM AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
SOME INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MANY AREAS AROUND 90 BY SATURDAY. DEW
POINTS LOOK TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THE FLOW WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING INTO
FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA ALLOWING FOR LOCAL SEA/LAND BREEZES
TO BE THE MAIN WIND PRODUCING MECHANISM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OBS HAVE LIGHT SEA BREEZES ESTABLISHED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
MIA/TMB, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SE AT MIA/TMB BY 20Z. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS THE SEA BREEZES
CONVERGE, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. BACK TO LAND
BREEZE BY ABOUT 03Z/04Z, WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS
MOISTURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH ADVANCES TOWARDS AREA. MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR EAST COAST WITH THIS MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  85  70  85 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  85  72  85 /  10  20   0   0
MIAMI            72  86  72  86 /  10  20   0   0
NAPLES           67  83  68  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...59/RM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 241846
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A 500MB SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH A
LINGERING BOUNDARY THAT IS LAYING ACROSS THE WATERS, EAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS IT DOES, IT WILL SPARK OFF SOME MORNING SHOWERS. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PUSH ONSHORE AND BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, FROM BROWARD COUNTY SOUTH.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 500MB
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER FLORIDA AND UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND A WARM AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
SOME INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MANY AREAS AROUND 90 BY SATURDAY. DEW
POINTS LOOK TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THE FLOW WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING INTO
FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA ALLOWING FOR LOCAL SEA/LAND BREEZES
TO BE THE MAIN WIND PRODUCING MECHANISM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OBS HAVE LIGHT SEA BREEZES ESTABLISHED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
MIA/TMB, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SE AT MIA/TMB BY 20Z. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS THE SEA BREEZES
CONVERGE, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. BACK TO LAND
BREEZE BY ABOUT 03Z/04Z, WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS
MOISTURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH ADVANCES TOWARDS AREA. MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR EAST COAST WITH THIS MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  85  70  85 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  85  72  85 /  10  20   0   0
MIAMI            72  86  72  86 /  10  20   0   0
NAPLES           67  83  68  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...59/RM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 241846
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A 500MB SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH A
LINGERING BOUNDARY THAT IS LAYING ACROSS THE WATERS, EAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS IT DOES, IT WILL SPARK OFF SOME MORNING SHOWERS. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PUSH ONSHORE AND BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, FROM BROWARD COUNTY SOUTH.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 500MB
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER FLORIDA AND UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND A WARM AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
SOME INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MANY AREAS AROUND 90 BY SATURDAY. DEW
POINTS LOOK TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THE FLOW WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING INTO
FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA ALLOWING FOR LOCAL SEA/LAND BREEZES
TO BE THE MAIN WIND PRODUCING MECHANISM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OBS HAVE LIGHT SEA BREEZES ESTABLISHED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
MIA/TMB, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SE AT MIA/TMB BY 20Z. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS THE SEA BREEZES
CONVERGE, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. BACK TO LAND
BREEZE BY ABOUT 03Z/04Z, WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS
MOISTURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH ADVANCES TOWARDS AREA. MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR EAST COAST WITH THIS MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  85  70  85 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  85  72  85 /  10  20   0   0
MIAMI            72  86  72  86 /  10  20   0   0
NAPLES           67  83  68  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...59/RM



000
FXUS62 KMFL 241846
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A 500MB SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH A
LINGERING BOUNDARY THAT IS LAYING ACROSS THE WATERS, EAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS IT DOES, IT WILL SPARK OFF SOME MORNING SHOWERS. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THEM COULD PUSH ONSHORE AND BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, FROM BROWARD COUNTY SOUTH.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 500MB
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDING. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE RIGHT OVER FLORIDA AND UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND A WARM AIR MASS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING.

WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO, THE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
SOME INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH MANY AREAS AROUND 90 BY SATURDAY. DEW
POINTS LOOK TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND THE FLOW WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING INTO
FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA ALLOWING FOR LOCAL SEA/LAND BREEZES
TO BE THE MAIN WIND PRODUCING MECHANISM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OBS HAVE LIGHT SEA BREEZES ESTABLISHED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
MIA/TMB, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SE AT MIA/TMB BY 20Z. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS THE SEA BREEZES
CONVERGE, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. BACK TO LAND
BREEZE BY ABOUT 03Z/04Z, WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS
MOISTURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH ADVANCES TOWARDS AREA. MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR EAST COAST WITH THIS MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  85  70  85 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  85  72  85 /  10  20   0   0
MIAMI            72  86  72  86 /  10  20   0   0
NAPLES           67  83  68  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...59/RM


  [top]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 241806
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SWING
THROUGH THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON BUT ITS INFLUENCE ON ANY
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL STILL BE OVERSHADOWED BY THE DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE. THERE IS A ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON (SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WERE HINTING AT IT
BETWEEN 4-6KFT) FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MOST ROBUST CU
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES STEADILY INLAND. WITH
PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SYNOPTIC FLOW THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE HASN`T MADE IT QUITE AS FAR INLAND...BUT STILL EXPECT THEM TO
COLLIDE SOMEWHERE IN THE LAKE COUNTY/KISSIMMEE RIVER CORRIDOR AROUND
SUNSET. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THIS COLLISION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS LAKE AND FAR WESTERN ORANGE/NW OSCEOLA
COUNTY.

WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM QUICKLY
MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC SCOOTS
FURTHER SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S...EVEN ALONG MOST OF THE COAST.
WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME CALM...LOW LEVEL FLOW LOOKS A BIT
STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AND DRIER AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN SO
FOG/STRATUS DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER STILL
EXPECT PATCHY FOG AROUND DAYBREAK.

FRIDAY...SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES STEADILY WEST-SOUTHWEST AS WE FEEL
THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
LITTLE IMPACT ON PENINSULA FLORIDA. WIND DIRECTION WILL TAP INTO
DRIER AIR SO FORECAST LOOKS DRY OTHER THAN OVER THE GULF STREAM
WHERE A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM IN THE MORNING. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL BE HELD OFF UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE COAST
AND LIKELY JUST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARDS. AS A RESULT IT WILL BE A
WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S EVEN ALONG
THE COAST.

SAT-SUN...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS
SOUTH FL WILL COLLAPSE SAT AS A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO
NRN FL AND THEN WASHES OUT. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD FROM THE SE
STATES INTO THE ATLC FOR SUN. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLAT MID LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY
INTO A SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVHD. WHILE THE FORECAST MAINTAINS A SMALL
LATE DAY SHOWER/TS THREAT VIS SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE FAR WRN
INTERIOR...RISING H50 HGTS/TEMPS COULD TEMPER THAT SMALL-TO-BEGIN-
WITH THREAT. OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES BOTH AFTERNOONS WITH
MAXES IN THE L-M80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND U80S TO AROUND 90F
INLAND. MINS MAINLY IN THE U60S.

MON-THU (PREV)...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
SHIFT EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE DAY. FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TOWARDS FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR. OCCASIONAL BKN DIURNAL CU FL040-050
THROUGH SUNSET. COLLISION OF EAST AND WEST SEABREEZES THIS AFTERNOON
VCNTY KLEE-KISM MAY GENERATE ISOLD SHRA BETWEEN 24/22Z AND 25/02Z.
PATCHY FOG/STRATUS 25/08Z-25/13Z WITH BEST COVERAGE IN AREAS NORTH
AND WEST OF I-4. DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNAL CU.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT-FRIDAY...PREVAILING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND
10KTS INTO THIS EVENING WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST 10-15KTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. WINDS VEER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
10-15KTS OVERNIGHT UNDER INFLUENCE FROM WEAK FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH
AND MOVEMENT OF HIGH TO OUR EAST. OVERALL WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
5-10KTS ON FRIDAY...WITH LATE DAY SEABREEZE BRINGING WINDS
EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARDS NEAR THE
COAST. SEAS 1-3FT WITH DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 8-9 SEC.

SAT-TUE...COLLAPSE OF SURFACE RIDGE WILL ALLOW SRLY WINDS TO SHIFT
TO NW-N ON SAT...BUT THEN QUICKLY VEER BACK ONSHORE BY SUN...AND
SRLY ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15KT
WHICH WILL KEEP THE STRETCH OF FINE BOATING WX CONTINUING. LITTLE
OR NO PROSPECT FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS UNTIL A SMALL CHANCE CREEPS
INTO THE FCST BY NEXT TUE. SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2-3 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SAT-SUN...MIN RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON WILL REACH
BETWEEN 35-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR BUT WINDS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT. NO RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BUT A FEW
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  86  62  84 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  64  88  65  89 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  66  87  63  86 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  65  86  64  84 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  64  88  64  88 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  65  89  65  87 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  65  88  66  89 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  65  86  64  86 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....CRISTALDI





  [top]

000
FXUS62 KJAX 241801
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
201 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014


.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
WESTERN AND EASTERN SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS ENHANCING SHOWER
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES. THE CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDINESS TO ADVECT IN
TONIGHT AS WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.SHORT TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

FRIDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS WEAK SFC LOW TREKS OFF TO OUR
NORTH WITH LIMITED LIFT AND MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA TO SUPPORT ANY
RAIN CHANCES. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE MORNING
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPS WILL RISE UP INTO THE MID 80S AND
DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S IN SE GEORGIA AND LOW 60S IN NE
FLORIDA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND LEAVING CONDITIONS DRY AND SKIES MOSTLY TO PARTLY
SUNNY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ALL WEEKEND WITH
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RIGHT AROUND 60 DEGREES AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOW/MID 60S.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS ALLOWING ISOLATED...AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ON MONDAY. SFC LOW STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA TUES NIGHT THROUGH WEDS NIGHT.
PRECIP CHANCES AND SKY COVER WILL INCREASE TUES AND WEDS WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSING OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH CONDITIONS LOOKING TO
IMPROVE BY THURSDAY MORNING. MAX TEMPS WILL BE WARM IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BE MILD IN THE
MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A
FEW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY INLAND. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD
DAWN. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE AT KVQQ/KGNV. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
WHILE THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY...A
PERIOD OF MVFR CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES AREA WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREA WATERS
DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS:LOW RISK THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  60  85  59  85 /  20  10  10   0
SSI  64  82  64  79 /  10  10  10   0
JAX  63  85  60  84 /  10  10  10  10
SGJ  65  84  63  80 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  60  85  62  86 /  20   0  10  10
OCF  60  85  60  87 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

GUILLET/STRUBLE/NELSON







000
FXUS62 KMFL 241734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA ALLOWING FOR LOCAL SEA/LAND BREEZES
TO BE THE MAIN WIND PRODUCING MECHANISM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OBS HAVE LIGHT SEA BREEZES ESTABLISHED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
MIA/TMB, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SE AT MIA/TMB BY 20Z. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS THE SEA BREEZES
CONVERGE, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. BACK TO LAND
BREEZE BY ABOUT 03Z/04Z, WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS
MOISTURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH ADVANCES TOWARDS AREA. MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR EAST COAST WITH THIS MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  87  69  87 /  10  20   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  87  72  87 /  10  20   0   0
MIAMI            72  88  72  88 /  10  20   0   0
NAPLES           67  84  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
PUBLIC/MARINE/LONG TERM...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA ALLOWING FOR LOCAL SEA/LAND BREEZES
TO BE THE MAIN WIND PRODUCING MECHANISM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OBS HAVE LIGHT SEA BREEZES ESTABLISHED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
MIA/TMB, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SE AT MIA/TMB BY 20Z. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS THE SEA BREEZES
CONVERGE, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. BACK TO LAND
BREEZE BY ABOUT 03Z/04Z, WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS
MOISTURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH ADVANCES TOWARDS AREA. MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR EAST COAST WITH THIS MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  87  69  87 /  10  20   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  87  72  87 /  10  20   0   0
MIAMI            72  88  72  88 /  10  20   0   0
NAPLES           67  84  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
PUBLIC/MARINE/LONG TERM...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA ALLOWING FOR LOCAL SEA/LAND BREEZES
TO BE THE MAIN WIND PRODUCING MECHANISM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OBS HAVE LIGHT SEA BREEZES ESTABLISHED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
MIA/TMB, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SE AT MIA/TMB BY 20Z. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS THE SEA BREEZES
CONVERGE, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. BACK TO LAND
BREEZE BY ABOUT 03Z/04Z, WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS
MOISTURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH ADVANCES TOWARDS AREA. MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR EAST COAST WITH THIS MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  87  69  87 /  10  20   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  87  72  87 /  10  20   0   0
MIAMI            72  88  72  88 /  10  20   0   0
NAPLES           67  84  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
PUBLIC/MARINE/LONG TERM...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA ALLOWING FOR LOCAL SEA/LAND BREEZES
TO BE THE MAIN WIND PRODUCING MECHANISM FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
LATEST OBS HAVE LIGHT SEA BREEZES ESTABLISHED AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
MIA/TMB, WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO SE AT MIA/TMB BY 20Z. A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS THE SEA BREEZES
CONVERGE, BUT NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TERMINAL SITES. BACK TO LAND
BREEZE BY ABOUT 03Z/04Z, WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING SLIGHTLY AS
MOISTURE AREA TO OUR SOUTH ADVANCES TOWARDS AREA. MAY GET A FEW
SHOWERS NEAR EAST COAST WITH THIS MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AIRPORTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  87  69  87 /  10  20   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  87  72  87 /  10  20   0   0
MIAMI            72  88  72  88 /  10  20   0   0
NAPLES           67  84  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
PUBLIC/MARINE/LONG TERM...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KTAE 241431
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.Update...

No noteworthy updates were necessary to the previous forecast.

.Hydrology...

Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage. Most
area rivers have already crested with the exception of the
Withlacoochee in Florida and the Suwannee River, where river levels
will continue to rise slowly for the remainder of the week. The next
chance for any significant rainfall is next Tuesday. At this time,
QPF values are low, around 0.75-1.25 inches.


The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Prev Discussion [322 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Patchy dense fog early this morning should burn off by mid-morning,
with partly cloudy skies dominating for the remainder of the day.
The ridge over the southeastern states early this morning will slide
east through the day as a shortwave trough digs into the Mississippi
Delta region. With zonal flow aloft and a dry atmosphere in place,
expect to see temperatures warm into the mid 80s this afternoon away
from the coast. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out closer
to the Suwannee River this afternoon as the east coast and gulf
seabreezes meet up. Elsewhere, dry weather is expected.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A weak disturbance will approach the region on Thursday evening
and move just to the north of the region on Friday. While this
disturbance will bring a slight increase in moisture, large scale
forcing is relatively weak, so rain chances will be kept at 10
percent or less. Following the passing of this disturbance on
Friday evening, drier air will filter into the region from the
northwest as a stronger deep layer ridge starts to build in across
the forecast area late Saturday.

Temperatures throughout the period will continue to be warm,
though cloud cover on Friday will likely limit temperatures to the
low to mid 80s in the afternoon. As the deep layer ridge becomes
more established by Saturday, temperatures will trend upward with
upper 80s likely across many of the inland locations Saturday
afternoon. Low temperatures will continue to stay a few degrees
above normal, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With the
strong sea breeze circulation expected, temperatures during the
afternoon near the coast will be several degrees cooler.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

The period begins with upper level ridging in place with surface
high pressure off of the coast of South Carolina. To our northwest,
an upper level low will begin to deepen over the central Plains as a
shortwave trough propagates through it, deepening a surface low
beneath it. As the shortwave trough swings through Monday, the low
will become cut off and move eastward, pushing the surface low
across the Plains and into the Ohio valley. The associated front
will bring thunderstorms to our area Monday through Tuesday. The GFS
is showing around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts, so there is
the potential for some of these storms to be strong to severe. The
system may linger over the eastern portion of the forecast area
Tuesday night-Wednesday, but instability will be lower by mid-week,
reducing the chances of severe weather.


.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Friday] IFR visibility expected at KTLH, KVLD, and
KECP this morning, with conditions possibly approaching airport
minimums. VFR conditions should return by mid-morning and hold
through the remainder of the day. Another potentially foggy night
is possible tonight.


.Marine...

Outside of the daily sea breeze circulation, winds and seas will
remain low through the weekend. An increase in onshore winds and
seas across the entire marine area is anticipated by Monday ahead
of an approaching storm system.


.Fire Weather...

Low level moisture levels will remain high enough to prevent any Red
Flag conditions through Friday, as minimum relative humidity values
stay in the 40s. As transport winds increase on Friday, dispersion
values will increase into the 70s and 80s for inland locations.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   85  60  84  60  85 /  10  10  10  10   0
Panama City   75  64  78  64  79 /   0  10  10  10   0
Dothan        83  61  84  59  87 /  10  10  10  10   0
Albany        83  61  84  59  87 /  10  10  10  10   0
Valdosta      87  59  84  60  87 /  10  10  10  10   0
Cross City    82  58  81  60  84 /  10  10  10  10   0
Apalachicola  75  64  76  64  75 /   0  10  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...MOORE







000
FXUS62 KKEY 241426
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1026 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - A DIFFUSE PRESSURE PATTERN PREVAILS ACROSS FLORIDA THE
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
SURFACE WINDS ARE QUITE LIGHT AND VARYING IN DIRECTION ACROSS THE
KEYS AREA. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 60S WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE MID 70S. WHILE LOW LEVEL LIFTING
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MOISTENING AND SOME CLOUD DECK FORMATION ABOVE
5KFT...THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING INDICATED THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAIRLY STABLE...AND NO SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN PRESENT WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA.

SHORT TERM UPDATE (THIS AFTERNOON) - OUTSIDE OF A FEW SWATHES OF
MID LEVEL CLOUDS...ON BALANCE...SKIES WILL TREND TOWARDS MOSTLY
SUNNY. DAY TIME HEATING OVER A CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO WEAK
CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA
BY THIS EVENING...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. STABLE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE DUE TO A WEAK SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AUGMENTED BY DAY TIME HEATING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WINDS WILL TEND
TOWARDS A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS DUE TO A MORE
DEFINED GRADIENT FURTHER SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM TO NONE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/15Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A MOISTENING TREND AT LOW ALTITUDES AFTER 25/00Z WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION...MOVING FROM ABOUT 190/08KT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS MAY
BE IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER EYW OR MTH OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
25/06Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT IS TOO SMALL FOR INCLUSION IN 15Z TAFS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CLR

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 241358
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
958 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
THERE IS STILL SOME LINGERING FOG OVER SOME INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THESE AREAS SHOULD CLEAR OUT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. LOCAL HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A WELL-DEFINED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION FORMING ON BOTH COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A COLLISION EXPECTED OVER THE INTERIOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS COULD CERTAINLY SPARK
A FEW SHOWERS...BUT WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND MORNING SOUNDINGS...FEEL THAT ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW-TOPPED AND HAVE REMOVED CHANCES
FOR THUNDER. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AFTER 00Z WILL SHIFT BACK
TOWARD THE WEST A BIT BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER...BUT
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME LINGERING FOG NOTED AT KLAL...BUT SATELLITE SHOWS THIS AREA
DECAYING AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
ONCE THIS FOG CLEARS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  66  82  68 /   0  10  10   0
FMY  87  66  87  66 /   0  10  10   0
GIF  87  67  87  65 /  20  20  10   0
SRQ  80  63  82  64 /   0  10  10   0
BKV  86  58  85  60 /  10  10  10   0
SPG  82  68  82  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE







000
FXUS62 KMFL 241351
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
951 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, THE WEATHER IS QUIET. SO,
OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS IN CONSIDERATION OF CURRENT OBS, NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
SHALLOW FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 4-5SM AT KAPF
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9 AM EDT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS BY 15Z-16Z. THE SEA BREEZES WILL PUSH INLAND AND CLEAR ALL
TERMINAL SITES, WITH ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT
ON TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND SOUTH TONIGHT...BRINGING IN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE CONFINED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LAKE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIRESWRF MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO...SO ONLY KEPT A SILENT 10 POP FOR GLADES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. SO A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME
MOVING INTO FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA WEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  87  69 /   0  10  20   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  73  87  72 /   0  10  20   0
MIAMI            86  72  88  72 /   0  10  20   0
NAPLES           84  67  84  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 241351
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
951 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, THE WEATHER IS QUIET. SO,
OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS IN CONSIDERATION OF CURRENT OBS, NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
SHALLOW FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 4-5SM AT KAPF
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9 AM EDT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS BY 15Z-16Z. THE SEA BREEZES WILL PUSH INLAND AND CLEAR ALL
TERMINAL SITES, WITH ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT
ON TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND SOUTH TONIGHT...BRINGING IN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE CONFINED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LAKE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIRESWRF MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO...SO ONLY KEPT A SILENT 10 POP FOR GLADES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. SO A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME
MOVING INTO FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA WEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  87  69 /   0  10  20   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  73  87  72 /   0  10  20   0
MIAMI            86  72  88  72 /   0  10  20   0
NAPLES           84  67  84  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 241351
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
951 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, THE WEATHER IS QUIET. SO,
OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS IN CONSIDERATION OF CURRENT OBS, NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
SHALLOW FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 4-5SM AT KAPF
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9 AM EDT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS BY 15Z-16Z. THE SEA BREEZES WILL PUSH INLAND AND CLEAR ALL
TERMINAL SITES, WITH ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT
ON TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND SOUTH TONIGHT...BRINGING IN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE CONFINED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LAKE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIRESWRF MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO...SO ONLY KEPT A SILENT 10 POP FOR GLADES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. SO A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME
MOVING INTO FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA WEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  87  69 /   0  10  20   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  73  87  72 /   0  10  20   0
MIAMI            86  72  88  72 /   0  10  20   0
NAPLES           84  67  84  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 241351
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
951 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, THE WEATHER IS QUIET. SO,
OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS IN CONSIDERATION OF CURRENT OBS, NO CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 727 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
SHALLOW FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 4-5SM AT KAPF
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9 AM EDT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS BY 15Z-16Z. THE SEA BREEZES WILL PUSH INLAND AND CLEAR ALL
TERMINAL SITES, WITH ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT
ON TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND SOUTH TONIGHT...BRINGING IN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE CONFINED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LAKE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIRESWRF MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO...SO ONLY KEPT A SILENT 10 POP FOR GLADES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. SO A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME
MOVING INTO FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA WEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  87  69 /   0  10  20   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  73  87  72 /   0  10  20   0
MIAMI            86  72  88  72 /   0  10  20   0
NAPLES           84  67  84  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMLB 241337
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST
AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY...SHIFTING THE SYNOPTIC
WIND FLOW FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO FORM LATE
THIS MORNING AND PUSH INLAND...COLLIDING SOMEWHERE IN THE LAKE
COUNTY/KISSIMMEE RIVER CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET.

THE AREA OF FOG THAT DEVELOPED NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 THIS MORNING IS
SLOWLY ERODING AND WE SHOULD SEE IT DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 11
AM.

THE QUESTION FOR TODAY CONTINUES TO BE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION.
DESPITE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING WITH PWATS AROUND
1" AND A NOTED CAP BETWEEN 800MB-750MB...MODELS STILL TRY TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TODAY ARE EVEN LESS
ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT BRINGING IN ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE TAIL
END OF THE BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED INTO THE ATLANTIC TO OUR NORTHEAST
LAST NIGHT.

PERHAPS THE MOST TELLING STRIKE AGAINST ANY CONVECTION IS THE
SHORTWAVE AND COLD POOL CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
LOOP CURRENT...NO CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH OF IT
OVERNIGHT OR THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS...WILL REMOVE THE MENTION
OF THUNDER AND CUT BACK THE MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS TO WESTERN
ORANGE/LAKE COUNTY.

AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S INTERIOR AND LOW-MID
80S COAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
THE AREA OF FOG THAT DEVELOPED NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 THIS MORNING IS
SLOWLY ERODING BUT TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER NW OF
KISM-KSFB-DAB THROUGH 15Z BEFORE BECOMING SKC. OCCASIONAL BKN CU
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FL040-050. COLLISION OF EAST AND WEST
SEABREEZES THIS AFTERNOON VCNTY KLEE-KISM MAY GENERATE ISOLD SHRA
BETWEEN 24/22Z AND 25/02Z.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING UNDER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10KTS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE
ATLANTIC. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KICK IN AROUND 15 KNOTS
ESPECIALLY FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15
KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SEAS 1-2FT WITH
DOMINANT PERIODS AROUND 8 SEC.

&&


.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/CRISTALDI







000
FXUS62 KJAX 241315
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
915 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS MORNING...WITH EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE MOVING ASHORE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
TO HELP INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AS IT MOVES INLAND. LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...THE EASTERN AND WESTERN SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO
MEET OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HELPING TO ENHANCE
SHOWER POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...

FOG HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT THIS MORNING. IT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
QUICKLY THROUGH 10 AM...BUT MAY LINGER A LITTLE PAST 10 AM AT
KGNV/KVQQ. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES INLAND AT KGNV.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  61  86  59 /  20  20   0  10
SSI  75  65  82  66 /  20  10  10  10
JAX  84  63  87  61 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  80  65  83  64 /  20  10  10   0
GNV  86  60  87  62 /  20  20   0  10
OCF  85  60  87  61 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KKEY 241131
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
731 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/12Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A MOISTENING TREND AT LOW ALTITUDES AFTER 25/00Z WILL FAVOR
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION...MOVING FROM ABOUT 190/08KT. THEREFORE...SHOWERS MAY
BE IN THE VICINITY OF EITHER EYW OR MTH OVERNIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
25/06Z...WITH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT IS TOO SMALL FOR INCLUSION IN 12Z TAFS.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KASPER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KMFL 241127
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
727 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
SHALLOW FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 4-5SM AT KAPF
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9 AM EDT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS BY 15Z-16Z. THE SEA BREEZES WILL PUSH INLAND AND CLEAR ALL
TERMINAL SITES, WITH ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT
ON TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND SOUTH TONIGHT...BRINGING IN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE CONFINED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LAKE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIRESWRF MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO...SO ONLY KEPT A SILENT 10 POP FOR GLADES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. SO A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME
MOVING INTO FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND WEAKENING IN THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR KAPF. AT THIS TERMINAL...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AT AROUND 16Z AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA WEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  87  69 /   0  10  20   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            86  72  88  72 /   0  10  20  10
NAPLES           84  67  84  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
PUBLIC/MARINE/LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241127
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
727 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
SHALLOW FOG RESTRICTING VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 4-5SM AT KAPF
SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9 AM EDT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF
COASTS BY 15Z-16Z. THE SEA BREEZES WILL PUSH INLAND AND CLEAR ALL
TERMINAL SITES, WITH ONSHORE WINDS 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY IMPACT
ON TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT WESTERLY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND SOUTH TONIGHT...BRINGING IN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE CONFINED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LAKE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIRESWRF MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO...SO ONLY KEPT A SILENT 10 POP FOR GLADES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. SO A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME
MOVING INTO FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND WEAKENING IN THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR KAPF. AT THIS TERMINAL...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AT AROUND 16Z AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA WEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  87  69 /   0  10  20   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            86  72  88  72 /   0  10  20  10
NAPLES           84  67  84  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION/SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
PUBLIC/MARINE/LONG TERM....13/SI



000
FXUS62 KTBW 240834
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
434 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.NEAR TERM (TODAY - TONIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SETUP NORTH OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING AS A
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LINE. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE GULF WILL CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED ACROSS
FLORIDA...GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A STRONG SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS
FORECAST TO TOP OUT AT AROUND 1.25 INCHES THIS
AFTERNOON...PREVENTING EXTENSIVE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP...HOWEVER A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA...AND THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.MID TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY WITH RIDGING BEGINNING TO
BUILD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING SATURDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS FLORIDA WITH RATHER
LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE WELL INLAND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...BUT WILL
SEE SOME SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS/STRATOCUMULUS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE
COAST TO NEAR 90 OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR BOTH
DAYS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. IN THE LOWER LEVELS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
RIDGING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
FLOW DEVELOPING LEADING TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEADING TO
THE THREAT OF A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INLAND AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES MOVE INLAND. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT
20 POPS FOR EACH DAY AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ONLY FORECAST
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THE
INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCES DURING
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PATCHY FOG MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING.
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 3000-5000 FEET WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SEA BREEZE STORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL STAY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF GENERALLY AROUND
1 FOOT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS
WILL ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS HUMIDITY WILL STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  83  66  82  68 /   0  10  10   0
FMY  87  66  87  66 /   0  10  10   0
GIF  87  67  87  65 /  20  20  10   0
SRQ  80  63  82  64 /   0  10  10   0
BKV  86  58  85  60 /  10  10  10   0
SPG  82  68  82  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...18/FLEMING
MID TERM/LONG TERM...69/CLOSE






000
FXUS62 KMFL 240829
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
429 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND SOUTH TONIGHT...BRINGING IN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE CONFINED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LAKE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIRESWRF MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO...SO ONLY KEPT A SILENT 10 POP FOR GLADES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. SO A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME
MOVING INTO FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND WEAKENING IN THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR KAPF. AT THIS TERMINAL...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AT AROUND 16Z AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA WEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  87  69 /   0  10  20   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            86  72  88  72 /   0  10  20  10
NAPLES           84  67  84  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...17/ERA



000
FXUS62 KMFL 240829
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
429 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND SOUTH TONIGHT...BRINGING IN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO BE CONFINED MOSTLY NORTH OF THE LAKE ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIRESWRF MODELS AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO...SO ONLY KEPT A SILENT 10 POP FOR GLADES COUNTY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY TODAY
WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE TAIL END OF THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. SO A FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST COAST LATE TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL THEN MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...WITH DRY
AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID/UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS ON SUNDAY MAY LEAD TO A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
ON SUNDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES.
HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS FROM UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...RAIN
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A LARGE CUTOFF
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND COLLISIONS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME
MOVING INTO FLORIDA...AND THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND WEAKENING IN THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR KAPF. AT THIS TERMINAL...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AT AROUND 16Z AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA WEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  87  69 /   0  10  20   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  73  87  72 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            86  72  88  72 /   0  10  20  10
NAPLES           84  67  84  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...17/ERA




000
FXUS62 KKEY 240815
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
415 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
ANOTHER QUIET APRIL OVERNIGHT IS BEING FELT IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE LARGER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...SUCH AS BIG PINE KEY AND RAMROD KEY.
SURFACE WISE...A SPLIT TWO CELL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS. ACROSS OUR MARINE
DISTRICT...WINDS ARE MOSTLY NORTH RANGING FROM 3 KNOTS AT SOMBRERO
KEY LIGHT TO 6 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS
SCANS ARE VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES...BUT CLOUDINESS
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE EASTERN FLORIDA STRAITS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A SCREAMING BUT ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM TRAJECTORY
WILL DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE A PROGRESSIVE AND BUILDING ANTICYCLONE
MIGRATES THROUGH THE ENTIRE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE SUNSHINE
STATE THIS WEEKEND. BECAUSE OF THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT...A SPLIT
SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. WITH THAT SAID...A 24 HOUR SPELL OF WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE 300 K SURFACE WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN AND
PERHAPS ERODE A PERSISTENT STABLE LAYER NEAR 850 MB
TONIGHT...HENCE...DIME POPS WILL BE INSERTED FOR LATE TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AN ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE LIFT COMBINED WITH SCANT
MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES LESS THAN 1 INCH) WILL PROMPT ONLY NICKLE POPS
TO BE EVIDENT IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURE WISE...HIGHS WILL AVERAGE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BETWEEN 70 AND 75 DEGREES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A LOW LATITUDE AND PREDOMINATE ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL GOVERN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE A WESTERN ATLANTIC
SURFACE RIDGE REACHING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
GRADUALLY RETREATS AND SETTLES DOWN THE SUNSHINE STATE. ALTHOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE...AN ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE
ASCENT AND NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL PROMPT ONLY DIME
POPS TO BE MAINTAINED. DUE TO A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE
FLOW...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON KEYS COASTAL WATERS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE A SPELL OF LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
PREDOMINATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL SET UP WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH BREEZES
POSSIBLE BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES OR HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AT BOTH THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST AT BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS AFTER 13 OR 14Z THIS
MORNING. EXPECT A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA FL015-020.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON APRIL 24TH IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...THE LAST TIME KEY WEST HIT 89
DEGREES ON APRIL 24TH WAS 23 YEARS AGO IN 1991. TEMPERATURE RECORDS
FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  74  83  74 / - 10 - -
MARATHON  86  74  86  74 / - 10 - -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DAF

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST



































































000
FXUS62 KJAX 240750
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
350 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014


...CONTINUED WARM WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER INLAND...

.SHORT TERM...
THIS MORNING...A COMBINATION OF MID AND LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHY
FOG IMPACTED MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOW TEMPS ON
TRACK TO FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S OVER INLAND SE GA TO THE
LOW/MID 60S OVER NE FL AND ATLANTIC COAST. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
PATTERN INDICATED A BROAD TROUGH AXIS OVER SE GA...WITH A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. SHALLOW WSW
FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES WAS ADVECTING GULF
MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
DEW PTS IN THE LOWER 60S. A BROAD SWATH OF STRONG MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
COAST REGION...WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL VORTEX NOTED OVER THE
EASTERN GULF TREKKING EASTWARD. LOCALLY...GIVEN THE UPPER
SUBSIDENCE AND MOIST LOW LEVELS... CONTINUED TO ADVERTISED PATCHY
DENSE FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND THE I-75 CORRIDOR OVER THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SUNRISE. FOG WILL LIFT BETWEEN 8-10 AM INLAND
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS A CUMULUS FIELD BEGINS
TO FORM THROUGH NOON WITH TEMPS WARM TO NEAR 80 INLAND TO UPPER
70S COAST WHERE THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP.

THIS AFTN...THE 00Z JAX RAOB SHOWED VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ABOVE
770 MB AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL HOLD
FIRM THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. DESPITE A SHALLOW MOIST AIRMASS WITH
PWATS NEARING 1-1.20 INCHES THIS AFTN AS THE SEA BREEZES PROGRESS
INLAND...GIVEN SUCH STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE PER THE
MODEL SOUNDING OPTED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES AT ONLY 15-20% INLAND
AND REMOVED TSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST. THE LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL INITIATE ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES DURING THE
EARLY AFTN THEN PROGRESS INLAND TOWARD THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH A VERY WEAK WLY
STEERING FLOW < 10 KTS IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE MID
80S INLAND TO NEAR 80 COAST BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.

TONIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WITH SOME LINGERING CUMULUS PUSHING BACK TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC COAST. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE INLAND ONCE AGAIN BUT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WSW BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING BUT WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW/MID
CLOUDS POSSIBLE OVER SE GA AND CLEARING SKIES OVER NE FL. TEMPS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 60S COAST.

.FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH
ON FRIDAY WITH GFS AND NAM MODELS SHOWING LATE DAY PRECIP OVER SE
GA. WILL KEEP POPS SILENT DUE TO DRY AIRMASS AND WEAK LIFT. UPPER
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY PRODUCING HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY PRODUCING HOT TEMPERATURES(NEAR 90 DEGREES
INLAND) ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED P.M. SEABREEZE COVECTION. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING AN UPPER LOW CUTTING OFF OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE SE BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE GULF COAST AND ADVECTED
INLAND REACHING GNV. EXPECT LIFR CIGS WITH FOG AT GNV AND VQQ
UNTIL AROUND 12Z. LOW CLOUDS MAY REACH JAX AND CRG IN 10Z-12Z
RANGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE
IN THE AFTN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. SPEEDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS
WITH COMBINED SEAS NOW 1-3 FT WITH A 1 FT SWELL. WINDS WILL VEER
WSW FRI NIGHT AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS OFFSHORE AS A WEAKENING
FRONTAL ZONE MOVES OVER THE SE REGION. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS EAST
OF THE WATERS WITH WINDS VEERING SSE AND SPEEDS 10-15 KTS AND
COMBINED SEAS 2-4 FT.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN ON FRI.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES WITHIN MANY
LOCAL RIVER BASINS INCLUDING THE ALTAMAHA...SUWANEE...ST MARYS AND
SANTA FE RIVER. THE SANTA FE RIVER AT THREE RIVER ESTATES IS
FORECAST TO RISE INTO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ON FRIDAY...WITH A
CONTINUED RISE INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  61  86  59 /  20  20   0  10
SSI  75  65  82  66 /  20  10  10  10
JAX  84  63  87  61 /  20  10  10  10
SGJ  80  65  83  64 /  20  10  10   0
GNV  86  60  87  62 /  20  20   0  10
OCF  85  60  87  61 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA







000
FXUS62 KMLB 240735
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL CAUSE THE GRADIENT WIND TO BECOME
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT. THIS FLOW SHOULD NUDGE
UP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES.

LATEST 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF. THOUGH IT IS ESSENTIALLY
CLOUDLESS AT THE PRESENT TIME...AS THE ASSOCIATED COOL POCKET
MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPE A LITTLE OVER
1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH IS CONTINGENT UPON EROSION OF THE
PRESENT CAPPING INVERSION. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN THE GULF AT THE CURRENT TIME.

THINK THAT ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE WITH THE COLLISION OF
THE EAST/WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. OUR LOCAL WRF MODEL
SUGGESTS THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR 00Z IN LAKE COUNTY. THIS IS WHERE
THE GFS GENERATED ITS MAX PRECIP. THEREFORE...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR STORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY TO
LAKE GEORGE. GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONFINE THE RAIN CHANCES TO A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...
ROUGHLY 5 PM THROUGH 10 PM.

OTHERWISE WE ARE LOOKING AT A WARM DAY AND MILD NIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BE AT TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE THE READINGS FROM WED. PATCHY LATE
NIGHT FOG STILL POSSIBLE INLAND LATE TONIGHT.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC SHIFTS FARTHER
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. PW VALUES ACTUALLY DECREASE LATE WEEK AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS ANY ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION LIMITED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE TREASURE COAST...SO WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. TAIL
END OF FRONT WILL FADE AS IT MOVES TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
SATURDAY WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST WITH
UPPER 80S/AROUND 90 DEGREES OCCURRING INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH MIN TEMPS AROUND 70 POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.

MON-WED...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT EAST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS LATER IN THE DAY. FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST TOWARD MID WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TOWARDS FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OF APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION...CAPE WIND PROFILERS SHOWING A BIT OF A LOW LEVEL JET
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
SLIGHTLY MIXED. EXPECT WINDS TO EASE THOUGH AND PATCHY MVFR MIST
WILL OCCUR IN THE PRE DAWN HOURS. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE VFR
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE DAY WHERE
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH THE EAST/WEST
SEA BREEZE COLLISION. THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW SO WE CANNOT
PUT THIS INTO THE TAFS AT THE PRESENT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SLIDING INTO THE ATLANTIC WILL
CAUSE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW TODAY...BECOMING SOUTH TONIGHT. SPEEDS
SHOULD BE AROUND 10 KNOTS...BUT THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
LIKELY KICK IN AROUND 15 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FROM CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.
SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

FRI-MON...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WINDS REMAIN LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD INITIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH FRIDAY
THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH SATURDAY. AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND
MOVES INLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME EAST VEERING
TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 2-3
FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FRI-SUN...MIN RH VALUES EACH AFTERNOON WILL REACH BETWEEN 35-40
PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR BUT WINDS REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT.
NO RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY OR SATURDAY BUT A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  84  64  85  63 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  87  65  88  64 /  20  20  10  10
MLB  83  66  86  63 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  83  66  85  64 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  86  65  87  65 /  20  20  10  10
SFB  87  65  87  66 /  20  20  10  10
ORL  87  67  88  66 /  20  20  10  10
FPR  83  66  86  64 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KTAE 240722
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
322 AM EDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Patchy dense fog early this morning should burn off by mid-morning,
with partly cloudy skies dominating for the remainder of the day.
The ridge over the southeastern states early this morning will slide
east through the day as a shortwave trough digs into the Mississippi
Delta region. With zonal flow aloft and a dry atmosphere in place,
expect to see temperatures warm into the mid 80s this afternoon away
from the coast. An isolated shower or two cannot be ruled out closer
to the Suwannee River this afternoon as the east coast and gulf
seabreezes meet up. Elsewhere, dry weather is expected.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
A weak disturbance will approach the region on Thursday evening
and move just to the north of the region on Friday. While this
disturbance will bring a slight increase in moisture, large scale
forcing is relatively weak, so rain chances will be kept at 10
percent or less. Following the passing of this disturbance on
Friday evening, drier air will filter into the region from the
northwest as a stronger deep layer ridge starts to build in across
the forecast area late Saturday.

Temperatures throughout the period will continue to be warm,
though cloud cover on Friday will likely limit temperatures to the
low to mid 80s in the afternoon. As the deep layer ridge becomes
more established by Saturday, temperatures will trend upward with
upper 80s likely across many of the inland locations Saturday
afternoon. Low temperatures will continue to stay a few degrees
above normal, generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s. With the
strong sea breeze circulation expected, temperatures during the
afternoon near the coast will be several degrees cooler.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
The period begins with upper level ridging in place with surface
high pressure off of the coast of South Carolina. To our northwest,
an upper level low will begin to deepen over the central Plains as a
shortwave trough propagates through it, deepening a surface low
beneath it. As the shortwave trough swings through Monday, the low
will become cut off and move eastward, pushing the surface low
across the Plains and into the Ohio valley. The associated front
will bring thunderstorms to our area Monday through Tuesday. The GFS
is showing around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts, so there is
the potential for some of these storms to be strong to severe. The
system may linger over the eastern portion of the forecast area
Tuesday night-Wednesday, but instability will be lower by mid-week,
reducing the chances of severe weather.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] IFR visibility expected at KTLH, KVLD, and
KECP this morning, with conditions possibly approaching airport
minimums. VFR conditions should return by mid-morning and hold
through the remainder of the day. Another potentially foggy night
is possible tonight.

&&

.Marine...
Outside of the daily sea breeze circulation, winds and seas will
remain low through the weekend. An increase in onshore winds and
seas across the entire marine area is anticipated by Monday ahead
of an approaching storm system.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Low level moisture levels will remain high enough to prevent any Red
Flag conditions through Friday, as minimum relative humidity values
stay in the 40s. As transport winds increase on Friday, dispersion
values will increase into the 70s and 80s for inland locations.

&&

.Hydrology...
All of our river points outside the Suwannee River Basin have
crested and are now on a downward trend. However, major flooding
continues on the Choctawhatchee at Bruce with moderate flooding
occurring on the Chipola at Altha and Ochlockonee at Havana.
Expect these and other points outside the Suwannee to continue
their downward trend through the weekend.

In the Suwannee River system, crests have occurred in the
Withlacoochee at US-84 and throughout the entire Alapaha River.
The Upper Suwannee crest wave has not quite passed White Springs,
so with a large amount of water still working down the
Withlacoochee and Upper Suwannee, modest rises will continue for
the Middle Suwannee River points into early next week - and for a
much longer period of time across the Lower Suwannee. Expect
primarily minor flooding along the Suwannee, with notable
exceptions occurring at Luraville (moderate flood) and possibly at
Wilcox (potentially reaching moderate levels).

Long range model guidance continues to indicate a return of
potentially heavy rainfall in the Tue-Thurs timeframe next week.
With many river points remaining well above normal flows for late
April, area rivers have limited capacity to absorb additional heavy
rainfall which continues to indicate a high river flood potential
as we approach the first of May.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   85  60  84  60  85 /  10  10  10  10   0
Panama City   76  64  78  64  79 /  10  10  10  10   0
Dothan        84  61  84  59  87 /  10  10  10  10   0
Albany        84  61  84  59  87 /  10  10  10  10   0
Valdosta      85  59  84  60  87 /  20  10  10  10   0
Cross City    84  58  81  60  84 /  10  10  10  10   0
Apalachicola  74  64  76  64  75 /  10  10  10  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240529
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
129 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND WEAKENING IN THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR KAPF. AT THIS TERMINAL...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AT AROUND 16Z AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT
THE US FOR THIS COMING WEEK. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND DRIER AIR. FOR TODAY, DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE DEWPOINT WILL INCREASE FROM THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 60S BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN NOW AND WEEKEND. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN AN
AREA OF WEAK FORCING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN CHANGES, WITH WETTER
CONDITIONS, ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE LEVELS. RIGHT NOW A POP OF 30
PERCENT IN INCLUDED FOR WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK AS THE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES BIT MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE,
DOWNGRADED THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES.

AVIATION...(ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014)

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PENETRATE. CURRENTLY, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE
WIND DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE
IS IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINE...

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW AND
THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  86  70 /   0  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  74  87  73 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            87  73  87  73 /   0  10  20  10
NAPLES           84  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/ERA
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...17/ERA



000
FXUS62 KMFL 240529
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
129 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY AND WEAKENING IN THE EVENING
EXCEPT FOR KAPF. AT THIS TERMINAL...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AT AROUND 16Z AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT
THE US FOR THIS COMING WEEK. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND DRIER AIR. FOR TODAY, DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE DEWPOINT WILL INCREASE FROM THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 60S BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN NOW AND WEEKEND. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN AN
AREA OF WEAK FORCING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN CHANGES, WITH WETTER
CONDITIONS, ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE LEVELS. RIGHT NOW A POP OF 30
PERCENT IN INCLUDED FOR WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK AS THE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES BIT MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE,
DOWNGRADED THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES.

AVIATION...(ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014)

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PENETRATE. CURRENTLY, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE
WIND DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE
IS IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINE...

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW AND
THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  86  70 /   0  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  74  87  73 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            87  73  87  73 /   0  10  20  10
NAPLES           84  66  84  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/ERA
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...17/ERA




000
FXUS62 KJAX 240158
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
958 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WITH MILD TEMPS THIS EVENING. THE 0Z JAX
SOUNDING SHOWED AN EXTREMELY STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NEAR 7000
FEET WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS SHOWING UP VERY
NICELY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING. NO PRECIP WAS OBSERVED
TODAY AND NONE IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. MOST
OF THE FOG WILL BE PATCHY IN NATURE BUT THE HRRR IS SHOWING AN
INCREASED CHANCE FOR FOG ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE DEFINITELY FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO PLAY
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
COURTESY OF THE GULF COAST SEABREEZE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE
INCREASED THE FOG WORDING TO INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE I-75
CORRIDOR REGION. SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED FOR EAST COAST TERMINALS DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. AREAS OF FOG MOVING INLAND FROM THE WEST COAST WILL LEAD TO
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT GNV. HAVE MVFR AT THIS TIME...BUT NOW HAVE MORE
CONFIDENCE FOR LIFR VSBY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z AND CIGS BKN002. EXPECT
MVFR AT VQQ AND NO CIGS.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE 10-15 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND 5-10 KTS
NEAR THE COAST. EAST SWELLS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO COMBINED SEAS OF
2 FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD PEAK BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS.
WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AND VEER TO ONSHORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
ON THURSDAY DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  57  83  61  85 /   0  20  20  10
SSI  63  74  65  78 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  62  80  61  85 /   0  20  20  10
SGJ  65  76  64  84 /   0  20  20  10
GNV  60  84  60  86 /  10  20  20   0
OCF  61  85  61  86 /   0  30  30   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/TRABERT/







000
FXUS62 KMLB 240133
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
933 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING EXCEPT A FEW CLOUDS WITH SEA
BREEZE COLLISION OCCURRING OVER WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY. NOT ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR COLLISION TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS SEA
BREEZES DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOW
1000-850 MB WINDS NEAR CALM ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY
MORNING AND COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S...FOG WILL BE MORE LIKELY TONIGHT. HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY
FOG EVERYWHERE BUT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO
BASED ON LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. DON`T SEE ANYTHING TO PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TO OR VERY NEAR MORNING DEWPOINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR BR POSSIBLE 9Z-12Z MOST SITES WITH PATCHY FOG BUT PARTICULARLY
INLAND. SHOWERS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WITH BEST CHANCE LATER AFTERNOON OVER LEE WITH SEA BREEZE
COLLISION.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN CONDITIONS WITH BUOY 41009 ONLY SHOWING 2 FT WAVE HEIGHT
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT TO 5 KT OR LESS OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY INCREASING TO
10-15 KT BY AFTERNOON BUT WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN AROUND 2 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  82  64  84 /   0  10  20  10
MCO  64  87  65  88 /   0  20  20  10
MLB  65  83  67  86 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  63  84  66  84 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  65  86  65  86 /   0  20  10  10
SFB  65  88  66  88 /   0  20  20  10
ORL  65  86  67  88 /   0  20  20  10
FPR  63  82  65  85 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BOWEN
IMPACT WX....KELLY





000
FXUS62 KTAE 240123
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
923 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The regional mid/upper pattern is marked by a large ridge of high
pressure with subsidence aloft. At surface...a weak frontal
boundary located invcnty of I-10 at 9 PM EDT will move Swd into
the waters overnight leaving a rather weak pressure pattern in
place. This boundary marked on satellite by thinning CU. In its
wake...drier air clearly will slowly shift Swd in tandem with
front. All this reflected in RAP13 00z soundings which show light
NLY flow becoming calm after midnight at lowest levels and WLY
flow above. However with proximity of front...lowest level still
moist with PWATS near 1 inch over N FL down to around 0.8 inches
across SE AL and Nrn tier GA counties decreasing to 0.8 to 0.6
inches S-N by sunrise.

Dew points ranging from mid 50s north to around 60F across coastal
counties plus near calm winds will favor the development of at least
patchy fog after midnight for AL/GA....areas of fog inland N FL and
areas of dense fog coastal FL counties. CAM/SREF/local confidence
fog products all show this trend. Would not be surprised of a dense
fog advisory is issued for portions of our CWA...especially south of
I-10. Other than a stray shower or sprinkles along the coast or
adjacent waters before midnight...no rain is expected. Expect lows
from mid 50s Nrn most counties to around 60 coastal counties.

&&

.Aviation...[Through 00z Friday] Lingering cloud cover around 5000-7000
feet should quickly dissipate this evening, leaving mostly clear
skies. Model forecasts consistently show low CIGS and fog
advancing inland from near the Gulf coast later tonight,
especially after 06z. Some of the fog could be dense. We included
1/2SM FG at TLH and ECP, with some IFR fog at VLD and MVFR at DHN
and ABY. By 14z, we are forecasting all terminals to be VFR for
the remainder of the period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [307 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Surface high pressure and light southeast flow at the lower levels
over our area should force a sea-breeze over the Panhandle and Big
Bend tomorrow, but with a fairly dry airmass in place, this isn`t
expected to cause a lot of rain so much as an increase in afternoon
cloud cover over the area, although an isolated shower cannot be
ruled out. With a mid-level shortwave over the western Florida
Peninsula and south-central Georgia, however, the chance for
thunderstorms and showers increases slightly (to around 30%) for the
eastern portions of our forecast area tomorrow afternoon. Highs
Thursday will be in the mid 80s with noticeably cooler temps along
the immediate coastline in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows Thursday
night will stay around 60.

On Friday, an approaching cold front will begin to decay as it
approaches us with the upper level low supporting it begins to
de-amplify and lift northeastward. Rain chances will be around 20%
for our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia counties on Friday
with highs in the mid-80s once again and lows in the low 60s.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The period begins with upper level ridging in place with surface
high pressure off of the coast of South Carolina. To our northwest,
an upper level low will begin to deepen over the central Plains as a
shortwave trough propagates through it, deepening a surface low
beneath it. As the shortwave trough swings through Monday, the low
will become cut off and move eastward, pushing the surface low
across the Plains and into the Ohio valley. The associated front
will bring thunderstorms to our area Monday through Tuesday. The GFS
is showing around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts, so there is
the potential for some of these storms to be strong to severe. The
system may linger over the eastern portion of the forecast area
Tuesday night-Wednesday, but instability will be lower by mid-week,
reducing the chances of severe weather.


.Marine...
Nocturnal surges in the Apalachee Bay and afternoon surges along
the coastline due to the sea-breeze will bump up winds to around
15 knots, with winds further offshore staying around 10 knots or
less and seas around 1 to 2 feet through the weekend. Ahead of our
next cold front, winds and seas will begin to pick up Monday, but
are expected to remain below headline criteria at this time.


.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds into
the weekend. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions are not
anticipated.


.Hydrology...
Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage. Most
area rivers have already crested with the exception of the Suwannee
where river levels will rise slowly for the remainder of the week.
The next chance for any significant rainfall is next Tuesday.


The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  84  60  85  63 /   0  10  10  10  10
Panama City   64  77  63  75  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        57  84  60  85  62 /   0  10  10  20  10
Albany        56  84  60  86  62 /   0  10  10  20  10
Valdosta      59  85  59  85  61 /   0  20  20  10  10
Cross City    59  83  58  82  62 /   0  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  62  75  61  74  65 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BLOCK/MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN








000
FXUS62 KTBW 240116
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
915 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE (REST OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND FL PENINSULA.
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS THE CONUS IS OCCURRING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AS THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT AHEAD OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST.
BACK CLOSER TO HOME...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SWATH OF VERY DRY MID/UPPER
LEVEL AIR STREAMING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND FL PENINSULA. THIS
DRY AIR ALOFT IS VERY EVIDENT IN THE 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE ABOVE
600MB.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH
OF I-10 WILL DECAY OVERNIGHT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
OF THE FL PENINSULA. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT LATE AT
NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY/AREAS OF GROUND FOG.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE
AREAS...AND THIS LOWERED VISIBILITY DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL
BE THE ONLY REAL SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...THE REST OF THURSDAY WILL
FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE INTO THE 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE WATER. LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA THAT
WILL BOTH PROPAGATE INLAND AND COLLIDE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PENINSULA
AFTER 21Z. EXPECT THE MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY AS THE SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY
MOVES INLAND...BUT IT WILL BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT AREA BEACHES IN
ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE INTERIOR...A FEW SEA-BREEZE COLLISION SHOWERS
ARE EVEN POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER THAN TODAY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE MORE DEFINED. MOISTURE ALOFT WILL STILL BE LACKING..SO ANY
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW TOPPED AND BRIEF IN NATURE. MANY OF THE
LOCAL AND NATIONAL CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SUPPORT THIS IDEA OF
SCT LATE DAY SHOWERS WELL INLAND AND THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS WILL
SHOW THIS CHANCE.

ANY EVENING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER 00Z WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND THE RESULTING DECREASE IN SEA-BREEZE
CONVERGENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR TO PREVAIL AREA WIDE AS CLOUDS ARE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THIS
EVENING. KEPT MENTION OF BR IN FORECAST AT LAL AND PGD STARTING
AROUND 09Z. THIS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR.
OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME WESTERLY
TOMORROW AFTN AS SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE ONLY MODERATE WINDS WILL BE ASSOCIATED CLOSE TO THE COAST WITH
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF THE DAILY SEA BREEZE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  83  68  84 /   0  10   0  10
FMY  65  87  66  88 /   0  10   0  10
GIF  66  86  66  86 /   0  30  20  10
SRQ  63  79  65  81 /   0  10   0  10
BKV  57  85  58  84 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  68  82  69  83 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MROCZKA
AVIATION...MCKAUGHAN






000
FXUS62 KKEY 240102
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
902 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
NO RETURNS ARE SHOWING ON THE FULL SCAN OF THE KBYX RADAR THIS
EVENING. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE KEYS. WINDS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH NEAR 5 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND
COOP STATIONS. THE WINDS HAVE SURGED SLIGHTLY OVER FLORIDA BAY AND
THE UPPER KEYS AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT FROM THE HEATING OVER THE
MAINLAND BREAKS DOWN WITH LONG KEY RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS...MOLASSES
REEF LIGHT HAS 10 TO 15 KNOTS...AND FOWEY ROCKS SHOWING NEAR 15
KNOTS...ALL BACKING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH
WILL BE THE DOMINANT FACTOR IN THE FORECAST.

.FORECAST...
THE LARGE RIDGE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST ENGULFING THE FLORIDA KEYS THROUGH THURSDAY. THURSDAY EVENING A
WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE KEYS AREA PROVIDING A SLIGHTLY BETTER
FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING FORECAST WILL BE
REQUIRED IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORY OR CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
OVER THE KEYS AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND PRODUCING FAIR WINDS AND
FOLLOWING SEAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT
THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...1874...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN
KEY WEST WAS 89 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE FOR KEY WEST ON APRIL 23RD...WHICH STANDS 140 YEARS
LATER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 240025 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES OVER
EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY TO SETTLE TO THE GROUND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR
COLLIER...SOUTHERN HENDRY...FAR WESTERN BROWARD...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THESE
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF
SITES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES AND BECOME WESTERLY OVER KAPF TAF SITE...DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT
THE US FOR THIS COMING WEEK. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND DRIER AIR. FOR TODAY, DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE DEWPOINT WILL INCREASE FROM THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 60S BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN NOW AND WEEKEND. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN AN
AREA OF WEAK FORCING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN CHANGES, WITH WETTER
CONDITIONS, ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE LEVELS. RIGHT NOW A POP OF 30
PERCENT IN INCLUDED FOR WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK AS THE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES BIT MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE,
DOWNGRADED THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES.

AVIATION...(ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014)

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PENETRATE. CURRENTLY, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE
WIND DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE
IS IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINE...

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW AND
THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  66  84  71  86 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  85  74  87 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            67  87  73  87 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           64  84  66  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 240025 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRES OVER
EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY AND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY TO SETTLE TO THE GROUND LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR
COLLIER...SOUTHERN HENDRY...FAR WESTERN BROWARD...AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE LIGHT WINDS. SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THESE
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF
SITES TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE FROM THE EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THURSDAY OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES AND BECOME WESTERLY OVER KAPF TAF SITE...DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT
THE US FOR THIS COMING WEEK. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND DRIER AIR. FOR TODAY, DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE DEWPOINT WILL INCREASE FROM THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 60S BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN NOW AND WEEKEND. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN AN
AREA OF WEAK FORCING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN CHANGES, WITH WETTER
CONDITIONS, ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE LEVELS. RIGHT NOW A POP OF 30
PERCENT IN INCLUDED FOR WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK AS THE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES BIT MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE,
DOWNGRADED THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES.

AVIATION...(ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014)

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PENETRATE. CURRENTLY, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE
WIND DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE
IS IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINE...

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW AND
THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  66  84  71  86 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  85  74  87 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            67  87  73  87 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           64  84  66  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMLB 231917
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
317 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS
WAY INTO NORTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON MARKED BY A BAND OF ENHANCED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO NORTH
FLORIDA.

THE STRONGER NW FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE THIS MORNING HAS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE BOUNDARY DROPS IN. THIS HAS
ALLOWED BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO FORM WITH THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE A LITTLE MORE DOMINANT GIVEN THE LIGHT
WESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW. EVEN WITH THE MOISTURE POOLING AROUND THE
BOUNDARY...THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE OR
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SHOWERS WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

SKIES BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT/CALM SURFACE WINDS. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LOOK TO BE LIGHTER THAN LAST NIGHT SO FOG
SEEMS TO BE A BETTER POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TOWARDS SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

THURSDAY...VERY DIFFUSE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY DRIVEN BY SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO BE PERSISTENT IN BRINGING IN ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES. HAVE CONTINUE TO LIMIT MENTION OF SHOWERS TO THE INTERIOR
WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED
TO KEEP THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ABOVE
5000FT LOOKS MINIMAL AND CAPE VALUES ARE A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE 500
J/KG. BUT MODELS DO SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CAP BEING MIXED OUT INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX PIVOTING ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN THE AFTERNOON
IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE COLLISION MAY GIVE ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS A BIT OF A BOOST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF
A THUNDER MENTION MAY BE WARRANTED. OTHERWISE...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

THU NIGHT-SAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BRIDGE ITSELF OVER THE STATE STARTING ON FRIDAY. EXPECTING A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY SPIT OUT A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST ON FRIDAY.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WILL BE DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL/SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THIS WEEKEND. UPPER 80S TO NEAR
90 EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND SECTIONS WHERE
SEA BREEZE MAY NOT MAKE IT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

SUN-WED (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL EXIST MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RISES UNDER S/SE FLOW. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD AS A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAN
THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF
THIS BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND WITH ANY LATE DAY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. HIGHS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR WITH DAYTIME CU PRODUCING OCCASIONAL CIGS
FL040-050 THROUGH SUNSET. PATCHY MVFR FOG WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH BEST COVERAGE  ALONG/NORTHWEST OF
I-4 AFTER 24/06Z. ISOLD SHRA POSSIBLE AFTER 24/18Z ALONG EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE...MAINLY AFTER 24/20Z WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISION WEST OF
KDED-KISM.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT-THURSDAY...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS KICKED IN
ALONG THE COAST RESULTING IN EAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS NEARSHORE WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FURTHER OFFSHORE. PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION
AND DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE HIGH INTO THURSDAY WILL KEEP WINDS
EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH A SPEED ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO 10-15KTS. SEAS 2-3FT AT 8-9SEC.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS FRIDAY WILL
DECREASE FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN BELOW 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  65  82  64  84 /   0  10  20  10
MCO  64  87  65  88 /   0  20  20  10
MLB  66  83  67  86 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  63  84  66  84 /   0  10  10  10
LEE  65  86  65  86 /   0  20  10  10
SFB  65  88  66  88 /   0  20  20  10
ORL  66  86  67  88 /   0  20  20  10
FPR  63  82  65  85 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...MOSES
LONG TERM....ULRICH






000
FXUS62 KTAE 231907
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
307 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
In general, a rather weak pressure pattern will prevail locally,
south of a surface ridge. Aloft, ridging will continue to overspread
the southeast. Subsidence aloft of a moist boundary layer behind the
seabreeze front will promote areas of fog across north Florida
tonight. Throughout south Georgia and southeast Alabama, radiational
cooling and a slightly less moist boundary layer will favor only
patchy light fog development near dawn. No rain is expected.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Surface high pressure and light southeast flow at the lower levels
over our area should force a sea-breeze over the Panhandle and Big
Bend tomorrow, but with a fairly dry airmass in place, this isn`t
expected to cause a lot of rain so much as an increase in afternoon
cloud cover over the area, although an isolated shower cannot be
ruled out. With a mid-level shortwave over the western Florida
Peninsula and south-central Georgia, however, the chance for
thunderstorms and showers increases slightly (to around 30%) for the
eastern portions of our forecast area tomorrow afternoon. Highs
Thursday will be in the mid 80s with noticeably cooler temps along
the immediate coastline in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows Thursday
night will stay around 60.

On Friday, an approaching cold front will begin to decay as it
approaches us with the upper level low supporting it begins to
de-amplify and lift northeastward. Rain chances will be around 20%
for our southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia counties on Friday
with highs in the mid-80s once again and lows in the low 60s.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
The period begins with upper level ridging in place with surface
high pressure off of the coast of South Carolina. To our northwest,
an upper level low will begin to deepen over the central Plains as a
shortwave trough propagates through it, deepening a surface low
beneath it. As the shortwave trough swings through Monday, the low
will become cut off and move eastward, pushing the surface low
across the Plains and into the Ohio valley. The associated front
will bring thunderstorms to our area Monday through Tuesday. The GFS
is showing around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 30-40 kts, so there is
the potential for some of these storms to be strong to severe. The
system may linger over the eastern portion of the forecast area
Tuesday night-Wednesday, but instability will be lower by mid-week,
reducing the chances of severe weather.


&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday]
VFR conditions under a low/mid layer CU field will prevail for the
remainder of the afternoon. Overnight expect IFR visibilities and or
ceilings across north Florida, with temporary MVFR conditions near
dawn elsewhere.


&&

.Marine...
Nocturnal surges in the Apalachee Bay and afternoon surges along
the coastline due to the sea-breeze will bump up winds to around
15 knots, with winds further offshore staying around 10 knots or
less and seas around 1 to 2 feet through the weekend. Ahead of our
next cold front, winds and seas will begin to pick up Monday, but
are expected to remain below headline criteria at this time.


&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds into
the weekend. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions are not
anticipated.


&&

.Hydrology...
Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage. Most
area rivers have already crested with the exception of the Suwannee
where river levels will rise slowly for the remainder of the week.
The next chance for any significant rainfall is next Tuesday.


The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.


&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  84  60  85  63 /   0  10  10  10  10
Panama City   64  77  63  75  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
Dothan        57  84  60  85  62 /   0  10  10  20  10
Albany        56  84  60  86  62 /   0  10  10  20  10
Valdosta      59  85  59  85  61 /   0  20  20  10  10
Cross City    59  83  58  82  62 /   0  20  10  10  10
Apalachicola  62  75  61  74  65 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN







000
FXUS62 KTBW 231904
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
304 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SOME EXTRA CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER
TO A WEAK BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH AND WASH OUT
THROUGH TOMORROW. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS
THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
AND SOME EXTRA MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
EAST OF THE STATE. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
INTO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER ABOVE FLORIDA GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA. GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT BE CLOSING IN ON THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY
EXCEPTION COULD BE BRIEF PATCHY FOG AT KLAL AND KPGD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A
SEA BREEZE WILL TURN WINDS ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO CONCERNS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  66  83  68  84 /   0  10   0  10
FMY  65  87  66  88 /   0  10   0  10
GIF  66  86  66  86 /   0  30  20  10
SRQ  63  79  65  81 /   0  10   0  10
BKV  57  85  58  84 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  68  82  69  83 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...05/CARLISLE
PREVIOUS LONG TERM...18/FLEMING






000
FXUS62 KJAX 231900
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.NEAR TERM.../THROUGH TONIGHT/...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
WORKING SOUTH WHICH IS WHY CLOUDS ARE AT A MINIMUM NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS POOLING...
RESULTING IN CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH
OF THE FL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO ENHANCE CU DEVELOPMENT
AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER. WILL FOCUS THIS SHOWER
POTENTIAL JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS ALONG
THE ST JOHNS RIVER TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT NEEDED TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT
SHOWERS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL INLAND.

THURSDAY...THE COMBINATION OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
AREA...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF ATLC AND GULF
COAST SEA BREEZES MAY HELP TRIGGER AN AFTN SHOWER OR STORM...WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO FADE IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. FOR MOST
PART POPS ARE AROUND 20% BEGINNING AFTER 1 PM. FRIDAY...ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW BUT ALL MODELS SUGGEST
LOWER MEAN RH VALUES SO LOOKS TO BE DRY FCST SO POPS ARE 10% OR
LESS. TEMPS THU AND FRI WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE WARM GENERALLY IN THE
MID 80S...COOLER AT THE COAST DUE ATLC SEA BREEZES BOTH DAY. SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI MORNING.

SAT AND SUN...OVER THE WEEKEND GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH JUST A 15-20% CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
STORM. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
S AND SW. INLAND MAX TEMPS WILL PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGING MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE MON INTO MON
NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH MOVES EWD. GENERALLY ISOLD
TO SCT CONVECTION POSSIBLE MON AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES TUE
THROUGH WED AS THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECASTING
AREA. ISOLD STRONG TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUE-WED BASED ON 12Z
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON. A
BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT
FLORIDA TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KVQQ/KGNV.

A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND PUSH
INLAND...WHICH WILL AFFECT WIND DIRECTIONS AT COASTAL TAF SITES.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MAY LEAD TO RESTRICTIONS
AT KVQQ/KGNV.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AFTER 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD AND
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: A MARGINAL LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY
DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS OF 2 FT AND 9-10 SECONDS. A MODERATE
RISK IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON THU DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT SEVERAL
LOCAL BASINS INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE...ALTAMAHA...ST MARYS AND SANTA
FE. THE SANTA FE AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
THE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE MARK BY LATE FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUE
RISE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  57  83  61 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  76  63  74  65 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  83  63  80  61 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  79  65  76  64 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  84  61  84  60 /  20  10  30  30
OCF  85  61  85  61 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE/SHASHY






000
FXUS62 KKEY 231848
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
248 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER SUMMARY -- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT AIR
TEMPERATURES IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NEAR 80F...WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE BLOWING AT
MOST LOCATIONS. A SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
VERY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS INITIATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. LOCAL DOPPLER RADARS ARE VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES
THANKS TO A VERY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS -- WINDS OVER FLORIDA BAY AND WATERS ADJACENT TO
THE UPPER KEYS WILL BACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SURGE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO MAINLAND HEATING/SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. OTHERWISE...A FAIR AND FINE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATION
WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL INDUCE A WEAK
SOUTHERLY CURRENT IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME
WEAK WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION SETTING UP THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE MAY MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...A PRIMARILY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH ONLY WEAK EMBEDDED...MOSTLY SHALLOW
PERTURBATIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT FLOWS
THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN
SOME AND STAY MODERATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES...NO HEADLINES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 24/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A FEW SHORT-LIVED STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL EPISODE DURATIONS WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF MINUTES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  70  83  74  84 / -  -  -  10
MARATHON  70  87  74  87 / -  -  -  10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KMFL 231837 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
237 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014


.DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT
THE US FOR THIS COMING WEEK. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND DRIER AIR. FOR TODAY, DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE DEWPOINT WILL INCREASE FROM THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 60S BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN NOW AND WEEKEND. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN AN
AREA OF WEAK FORCING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN CHANGES, WITH WETTER
CONDITIONS, ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE LEVELS. RIGHT NOW A POP OF 30
PERCENT IN INCLUDED FOR WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK AS THE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES BIT MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE,
DOWNGRADED THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014)

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PENETRATE. CURRENTLY, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE
WIND DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE
IS IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW AND
THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  84  71  86 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  85  74  87 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            70  87  73  87 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           66  84  66  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/SI
LONG TERM....71/JE



000
FXUS62 KMFL 231824
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
224 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT
THE US FOR THIS COMING WEEK. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND DRIER AIR. FOR TODAY, DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE DEWPOINT WILL INCREASE FROM THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 60S BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN NOW AND WEEKEND. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN AN
AREA OF WEAK FORCING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN CHANGES, WITH WETTER
CONDITIONS, ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE LEVELS. RIGHT NOW A POP OF 30
PERCENT IN INCLUDED FOR WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK AS THE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES BIT MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE,
DOWNGRADED THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT FOR ALL
THE EAST COAST BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014)

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PENETRATE. CURRENTLY, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE
WIND DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE
IS IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW AND
THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  84  71  86 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  85  74  87 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            70  87  73  87 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           66  84  66  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION/FIRE...SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 231824
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
224 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL AFFECT
THE US FOR THIS COMING WEEK. ONE OF THESE DISTURBANCES CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE EAST LEAVING BEHIND DRIER AIR. FOR TODAY, DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE IN PLACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN NOW
AND THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
EAST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE DEWPOINT WILL INCREASE FROM THE LOW 60S TO THE UPPER 60S BY
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHEAST BETWEEN NOW AND WEEKEND. SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN AN
AREA OF WEAK FORCING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN CHANGES, WITH WETTER
CONDITIONS, ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK,
AS A SLOW MOVING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ENHANCE
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE LEVELS. RIGHT NOW A POP OF 30
PERCENT IN INCLUDED FOR WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING ON FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK AS THE
WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.

THERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SWELL COMING FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE PALM BEACH BEACHES BIT MUCH LESS THAN EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE,
DOWNGRADED THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM MODERATE TO SLIGHT FOR ALL
THE EAST COAST BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014)

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PENETRATE. CURRENTLY, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE
WIND DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE
IS IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...

OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING
SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE RH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THRESHOLD BETWEEN NOW AND
THE WEEKEND FOR THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE LAKE. A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN RH IS FORECAST BETWEEN THE WEEKEND AND THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  84  71  86 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  85  74  87 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            70  87  73  87 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           66  84  66  84 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION/FIRE...SI




000
FXUS62 KJAX 231735
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
135 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AFTERNOON FORECAST TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
WORKING SOUTH WHICH IS WHY CLOUDS ARE AT A MINIMUM NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS
POOLING...RESULTING IN CU DEVELOPMENT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE SOUTH OF THE FL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO
ENHANCE CU DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO A SPRINKLE OR LIGHT
SHOWER.

WILL FOCUS THIS SHOWER POTENTIAL JUST SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER TO
THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT
NEEDED TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON
AT FLORIDA TERMINALS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KVQQ/KGNV.

A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND PUSH
INLAND...WHICH WILL AFFECT WIND DIRECTIONS AT COASTAL TAF SITES.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MAY LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS AT KVQQ/KGNV.

PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
AFTER 18Z.


&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  57  83  61 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  76  63  74  65 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  83  63  80  61 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  79  65  76  64 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  84  61  84  60 /  20  10  30  30
OCF  85  61  85  61 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KMFL 231702
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL DEVELOP, AND IF IT
DOES HOW FAR INLAND WILL IT BE ABLE TO MOVE. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE IS
IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...

WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS AS THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW COLLIDES
WITH WEAKER FLOW TO THE EAST (SEE OUR FACEBOOK PAGE). AS THE
HEATING OF THE LAND OCCURS LATER ON TODAY, AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL MOVE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE WARMEST SPOT TODAY WILL BE IN
THE INTERIOR. AREAS AROUND NAPLES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
80 DUE TO THE MARITIME AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COAST. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTY LINE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE KEYS.

MARINE...
THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  85  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  85  74  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            70  86  73  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           66  83  67  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 231702
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL DEVELOP, AND IF IT
DOES HOW FAR INLAND WILL IT BE ABLE TO MOVE. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE IS
IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...

WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS AS THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW COLLIDES
WITH WEAKER FLOW TO THE EAST (SEE OUR FACEBOOK PAGE). AS THE
HEATING OF THE LAND OCCURS LATER ON TODAY, AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL MOVE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE WARMEST SPOT TODAY WILL BE IN
THE INTERIOR. AREAS AROUND NAPLES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
80 DUE TO THE MARITIME AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COAST. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTY LINE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE KEYS.

MARINE...
THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  85  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  85  74  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            70  86  73  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           66  83  67  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 231702
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL DEVELOP, AND IF IT
DOES HOW FAR INLAND WILL IT BE ABLE TO MOVE. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE IS
IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...

WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS AS THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW COLLIDES
WITH WEAKER FLOW TO THE EAST (SEE OUR FACEBOOK PAGE). AS THE
HEATING OF THE LAND OCCURS LATER ON TODAY, AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL MOVE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE WARMEST SPOT TODAY WILL BE IN
THE INTERIOR. AREAS AROUND NAPLES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
80 DUE TO THE MARITIME AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COAST. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTY LINE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE KEYS.

MARINE...
THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  85  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  85  74  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            70  86  73  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           66  83  67  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 231702
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
102 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL DEVELOP, AND IF IT
DOES HOW FAR INLAND WILL IT BE ABLE TO MOVE. CURRENTLY, IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL MAKE WIND
DIRECTION HIGHLY VARIABLE, DEPENDING AS TO WHERE THE TAF SITE IS
IN RELATION TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. TONIGHT, THEY WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

UPDATE...

WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS AS THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW COLLIDES
WITH WEAKER FLOW TO THE EAST (SEE OUR FACEBOOK PAGE). AS THE
HEATING OF THE LAND OCCURS LATER ON TODAY, AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL MOVE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE WARMEST SPOT TODAY WILL BE IN
THE INTERIOR. AREAS AROUND NAPLES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
80 DUE TO THE MARITIME AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COAST. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTY LINE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE KEYS.

MARINE...
THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  85  71  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  85  74  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            70  86  73  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           66  83  67  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KKEY 231504
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1104 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER SUMMARY -- ANOTHER MILD APRIL DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WITH CURRENT AIR
TEMPERATURES RISING SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPPER 70S. MEANWHILE...
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING STEADY 61-65F...KEEPING THE AIR
MASS JUST ON THE COMFORTABLE SIDE. A FEW TO SCATTERED SHALLOW
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT IN BOTH SURFACE AND SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS ABOUT THE KEYS. DATA COLLECTED FROM THE KEY WEST MORNING
RADIOSONDE BALLOON REVEAL A DRY AND STABLY STRATIFIED ATMOSPHERE
ABOVE THE SHALLOW...LOW-ALTITUDE CUMULUS LAYER. INDEED...LOCAL
DOPPLER RADAR SCANS CURRENTLY ARE VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION ECHOES.
THE MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA IS RATHER WEAK
WITH A MEAGER HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO BENEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON -- SKIES SHOULD TURN MOSTLY SUNNY
SOON IF THEY ARE NOT ALREADY. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 80F
WITH GENTLE WEST TO NORTHWEST BREEZES PREVAILING.
&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE SERVICE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA BAY AND HAWK CHANNEL OFF THE UPPER KEYS WHERE MAINLAND
PENINSULA HEATING WILL INDUCE WINDS TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
FRESHEN NEAR 15 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 24/15Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A FEW SHORT-LIVED STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL EPISODE DURATIONS WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF MINUTES.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......CLR

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

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WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST








000
FXUS62 KTAE 231435
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1035 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Deep layer ridging is beginning to spread into the region on the
heels of a series of departing shortwaves. Significant drying of
the column is noted above 700 mb in this mornings sounding. In the
lowest levels though, moisture remains as the cold front
separating the drier air from the more moist airmass sits across
south-central Georgia and southern Alabama. Ahead of this front,
expect a seabreeze to develop this afternoon, with limited inland
propagation under the light northwesterly flow regime. A few light
quick hitting showers may be possible later this afternoon along
the seabreeze, though they should be confined to within 30 or so
miles from the coast. Expect highs in the lower to middle 80s away
from the coast, and the middle 70s along the coast.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]...

Restrictions have cleared at all terminals and VFR is expected for
the remainder of the afternoon. Another round of low ceilings and
fog can be expected overnight, especially across north Florida.

&&

.Prev Discussion [651 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Southerly flow will return more moisture to the region by the
start of the short term period. A weak upper level disturbance
will move through the region on Thursday afternoon. A strong sea
breeze in in the afternoon, both from the Gulf and Atlantic will
likely be the focus for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon, particularly along the I-75 corridor. Opted
for 30 percent pops in this area tapering down to around 20
percent further westward into South Central Georgia and the
Florida Big Bend.

By Friday, another weak disturbance will move through the region,
but with this system having less energy to work with than the one
on Thursday, will keep pops 10 percent or less for now.

Temperatures throughout the period will be quite warm with highs
warming into the mid 80s each afternoon. With a strong sea breeze
circulation during the afternoon over shelf waters in the upper
60s, expect temperatures near the coast to be several degrees
cooler than the inland sites. Overnight lows will be a few degrees
warmer than normal and generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
By Saturday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the
Great Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the
parent low moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens.
Southerly flow off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area
through Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly
surface flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during
the day. At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a
very amplified pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough
digging down over the southern Plains. While these models differ
some in timing and structure, they both show a blocking pattern
emerging with a strong upper ridge in the west and an amplified
deep trough in the east. This system should be our best chance of
seeing showers and thunderstorms in the extended period.


.Marine...
Expect winds and seas to stay fairly light throughout the period
without any large storm systems to affect the marine area. The
only exception to this will be each afternoon in the sea breeze
zone where winds in the 10 to 15 knot range will be common.


.Fire Weather...
With dewpoints expected to remain generally in the 60s today and mid
to upper 50s on Thursday, relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels. No Red Flag conditions are expected.


.Hydrology...
Many of our river points in Florida remain above flood stage.
Crests have occurred in the upper portions of the Choctawhatchee
and Chipola Rivers at Caryville and Marianna, respectively. Bruce
is cresting this morning at 18.3 feet and will likely remain in
major flood through the remainder of the work week. The Chipola
will finally crest around 25.5 feet later this afternoon and then
begin a steady fall. The combination of the high flows down the
Chipola and increasing flows down the Apalachicola will likely
result in flooding for areas around Wewahitchka and Southern
Liberty County. With releases out of Woodruff lower each day,
expect Blountstown to slowly drop. Further east on the
Ochlockonee River, Havana has crested and will likely drop below
moderate flood stage by Friday.

In Alabama/Georgia, all of the river points continue to drop
steadily with the only exception being over on the Withlacoochee
where modest rises will continue at the US-84 crossing near
Quitman. With peak flows from the Little River and further
upstream from the Withlacoochee moving past this site later
tonight, expect the river to crest just below the moderate flood
category.

For the Suwannee, expect modest rises to continue well into the
weekend. While the Withlacoochee above Pinetta and the Upper
Suwannee have yet to crest, the Alapaha River has, with its peak
flow discharging into the Suwannee now. Crests for the Middle
Suwannee likely won`t occur until the middle of next week with
points on the Lower Suwannee cresting much later than that. Most
points (if not there already) will reach minor flood stage.
Luraville and Wilcox have the best potential of reaching the
moderate flood levels.

Additional precipitation over the next 7 days does not appear
great enough to cause any additional rises over what is already in
the river systems. However, beyond this time frame, the pattern
suggests that there is some potential for heavier rains in the
Wed-Fri timeframe next week that could impact river levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   83  59  84  60  85 /  10   0  10  10  10
Panama City   77  62  77  63  73 /  20   0  10  10  10
Dothan        82  59  85  61  86 /   0   0  10  10  10
Albany        82  57  85  60  86 /   0   0  20  10  10
Valdosta      84  60  84  59  85 /   0   0  30  20  10
Cross City    80  60  83  58  82 /   0   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  75  60  76  61  72 /  20   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







000
FXUS62 KTBW 231433
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1033 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING SOUNDING SHOWS A SHALLOW LAYER OF INSTABILITY UNDER A
STRONG CAP...WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALREADY NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH AS WELL...BUT WITH THE
CAP IN PLACE AND LIMITED MOISTURE...NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
OVERALL...A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 80S. UPDATED SKY GRIDS AND REST OF GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND WILL SEND AN UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS CONTINUE AT MOST TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CIGS SHOULD
LIFT THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR RETURNING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  65  84  68 /   0   0  10   0
FMY  83  64  86  66 /   0   0  10   0
GIF  84  65  87  66 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  78  64  81  65 /   0   0  10   0
BKV  82  57  86  58 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  79  67  83  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...05/CARLISLE






000
FXUS62 KJAX 231358
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
958 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE IS
EXPECTED. ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO POOL SOMEWHAT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR
THE FL/GA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE FOR
CONVERGENCE...LEADING TO INCREASED CU DEVELOPMENT AND POSSIBLY A
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER. WILL FOCUS THIS POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER
TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
LIFT NEEDED TO PRODUCE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY...CU ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A BRIEF
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AT
KGNV/KJAX/KCRG/KVQQ...BUT THE CHANCE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...AND PUSH
INLAND...WHICH WILL AFFECT WIND DIRECTIONS AT COASTAL TAF SITES.

PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...AND MAY LEAD TO
RESTRICTIONS AT KVQQ/KGNV.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  57  84  62 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  76  62  75  65 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  83  62  80  61 /  20  10  20  20
SGJ  79  65  76  64 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  84  61  84  59 /  10  10  30  30
OCF  85  61  85  60 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

STRUBLE







000
FXUS62 KMFL 231339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS AS THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW COLLIDES
WITH WEAKER FLOW TO THE EAST (SEE OUR FACEBOOK PAGE). AS THE
HEATING OF THE LAND OCCURS LATER ON TODAY, AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL MOVE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE WARMEST SPOT TODAY WILL BE IN
THE INTERIOR. AREAS AROUND NAPLES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
80 DUE TO THE MARITIME AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COAST. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SSE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PENETRATE, AND IF
DOES MAKE IT FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED, WINDS MAY BE MORE TO THE
SE-ESE. TONIGHT, THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTY LINE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE KEYS.

MARINE...
THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  68  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  85  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            84  70  86  73 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           81  66  83  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION



000
FXUS62 KMFL 231339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...

WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW CONVERGENCE BANDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS AS THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW COLLIDES
WITH WEAKER FLOW TO THE EAST (SEE OUR FACEBOOK PAGE). AS THE
HEATING OF THE LAND OCCURS LATER ON TODAY, AN EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR
HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL MOVE. TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE WARMEST SPOT TODAY WILL BE IN
THE INTERIOR. AREAS AROUND NAPLES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
80 DUE TO THE MARITIME AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE PALM BEACH
COAST. HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SSE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PENETRATE, AND IF
DOES MAKE IT FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED, WINDS MAY BE MORE TO THE
SE-ESE. TONIGHT, THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTY LINE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE KEYS.

MARINE...
THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  68  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  85  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            84  70  86  73 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           81  66  83  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION




000
FXUS62 KMLB 231320
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
920 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH
ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND INTO
THE ATLANTIC TO OUR NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE PENINSULA REMAIN DRY AT 1" OR LESS AND UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY DON`T SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY. SO THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH
AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPING LEADING TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

915 MHZ WIND PROFILER SHOWS A FAIRLY STOUT 10-15KTS NW WIND IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WHICH WILL MIX DOWN IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION LIFTS. EXPECT SOME WEAKENING OF THE WINDS AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO MODIFY INLAND WITH READINGS REACHING THE MID
80S. COASTAL SECTIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S BEFORE THE SEA
BREEZE KICKS IN.

&&

.AVIATION...
LINGERING GROUND FOG/MIST CLEARING BY 14Z THEN PREVAILING VFR WITH
DAYTIME CU PRODUCING OCCASIONAL CIGS FL040-050. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
FOG ALONG/NORTHWEST OF I-4 MAY BE IN THE CARDS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS AS FRONTAL TROUGH PULLS SEAWARD TO
THE NORTH OF OUR WATERS. THE DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL
KICK IN ALONG THE COAST BUT LOOKS TO ONLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS.

PREVAILING FLOW BECOMES EAST-SOUTHEAST 10KTS OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED WELL TO NORTH (BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL TROUGH).
SEAS 2-4FT THIS MORNING BECOMING 1-3FT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

MOSES/BLOTTMAN







000
FXUS62 KKEY 231208
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
808 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST...INCREASING
FOR A FEW HOURS TO CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. OUTSIDE OF BRIEF BOUTS OF HIGH MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

$$

AVIATION...11

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST






000
FXUS62 KMFL 231130
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SSE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PENETRATE, AND IF
DOES MAKE IT FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED, WINDS MAY BE MORE TO THE
SE-ESE. TONIGHT, THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTY LINE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE KEYS.

MARINE...
THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  68  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  85  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            84  70  86  73 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           81  66  83  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI



000
FXUS62 KMFL 231130
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TAF SITES LOOK TO GO SSE
THIS AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE TRIES TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR INLAND IT WILL PENETRATE, AND IF
DOES MAKE IT FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED, WINDS MAY BE MORE TO THE
SE-ESE. TONIGHT, THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE
AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTY LINE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE KEYS.

MARINE...
THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  68  85  71 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  85  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            84  70  86  73 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           81  66  83  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KTAE 231051
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
651 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday] IFR conditions have taken hold at KTLH,
KECP, and KABY this morning. However, cigs and vsby should remain
mostly above airport minimums. VFR conditions expected by mid-
morning through the evening. A repeat of the low clouds and some
fog is expected again tonight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [329 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A weak frontal boundary will stall and begin to dissipate across the
region today as a low-amplitude ridge builds over the southeastern
states. Despite the presence of the weak boundary, the atmosphere is
expected to be too dry and stable to support anything other than a
very isolated brief shower or two, with PoPs below 10 percent at
most. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower 80s, except along
the coast, where a vigorous seabreeze will hold temperatures down
several degrees.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Southerly flow will return more moisture to the region by the
start of the short term period. A weak upper level disturbance
will move through the region on Thursday afternoon. A strong sea
breeze in in the afternoon, both from the Gulf and Atlantic will
likely be the focus for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon, particularly along the I-75 corridor. Opted
for 30 percent pops in this area tapering down to around 20
percent further westward into South Central Georgia and the
Florida Big Bend.

By Friday, another weak disturbance will move through the region,
but with this system having less energy to work with than the one
on Thursday, will keep pops 10 percent or less for now.

Temperatures throughout the period will be quite warm with highs
warming into the mid 80s each afternoon. With a strong sea breeze
circulation during the afternoon over shelf waters in the upper
60s, expect temperatures near the coast to be several degrees
cooler than the inland sites. Overnight lows will be a few degrees
warmer than normal and generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
By Saturday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the
Great Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the
parent low moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens.
Southerly flow off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area
through Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly
surface flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during
the day. At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a
very amplified pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough
digging down over the southern Plains. While these models differ
some in timing and structure, they both show a blocking pattern
emerging with a strong upper ridge in the west and an amplified
deep trough in the east. This system should be our best chance of
seeing showers and thunderstorms in the extended period.


.Marine...
Expect winds and seas to stay fairly light throughout the period
without any large storm systems to affect the marine area. The
only exception to this will be each afternoon in the sea breeze
zone where winds in the 10 to 15 knot range will be common.


.Fire Weather...
With dewpoints expected to remain generally in the 60s today and mid
to upper 50s on Thursday, relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels. No Red Flag conditions are expected.


.Hydrology...
Many of our river points in Florida remain above flood stage.
Crests have occurred in the upper portions of the Choctawhatchee
and Chipola Rivers at Caryville and Marianna, respectively. Bruce
is cresting this morning at 18.3 feet and will likely remain in
major flood through the remainder of the work week. The Chipola
will finally crest around 25.5 feet later this afternoon and then
begin a steady fall. The combination of the high flows down the
Chipola and increasing flows down the Apalachicola will likely
result in flooding for areas around Wewahitchka and Southern
Liberty County. With releases out of Woodruff lower each day,
expect Blountstown to slowly drop. Further east on the
Ochlockonee River, Havana has crested and will likely drop below
moderate flood stage by Friday.

In Alabama/Georgia, all of the river points continue to drop
steadily with the only exception being over on the Withlacoochee
where modest rises will continue at the US-84 crossing near
Quitman. With peak flows from the Little River and further
upstream from the Withlacoochee moving past this site later
tonight, expect the river to crest just below the moderate flood
category.

For the Suwannee, expect modest rises to continue well into the
weekend. While the Withlacoochee above Pinetta and the Upper
Suwannee have yet to crest, the Alapaha River has, with its peak
flow discharging into the Suwannee now. Crests for the Middle
Suwannee likely won`t occur until the middle of next week with
points on the Lower Suwannee cresting much later than that. Most
points (if not there already) will reach minor flood stage.
Luraville and Wilcox have the best potential of reaching the
moderate flood levels.

Additional precipitation over the next 7 days does not appear
great enough to cause any additional rises over what is already in
the river systems. However, beyond this time frame, the pattern
suggests that there is some potential for heavier rains in the
Wed-Fri timeframe next week that could impact river levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   82  59  84  60  85 /  10   0  10  10  10
Panama City   74  62  77  63  73 /  10   0  10  10  10
Dothan        81  59  85  61  86 /   0   0  10  10  10
Albany        82  57  85  60  86 /   0   0  20  10  10
Valdosta      82  60  84  59  85 /   0   0  30  20  10
Cross City    80  60  83  58  82 /   0   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  75  60  76  61  72 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY








000
FXUS62 KKEY 230854
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
452 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES RANGE FROM MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS TO
MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE UPPER KEYS...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING NEAR 70
DEGREES. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ECHOES. SURFACE WISE...OUR AREA LIES ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO OUR EAST. ACROSS OUR
MARINE DISTRICT...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY NORTHWEST WINDS OF
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A FAIRLY ZONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM...WITH A MINOR PERTURBATION TRACKING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA...ISENTROPIC LIFT MOST
EVIDENT ON THE 300 K SURFACE WILL PROVIDE MOISTENING UNDERNEATH AN
ELEVATING STABLE LAYER NEAR 850 MB THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. IN
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING DISTURBANCE...A LIGHT AND CHAOTIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL GOVERN OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. WITH THAT SAID...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH A LOW
LEVEL STABLE LAYER WILL PROMPT MOSTLY CLEAR TO BE REPLACED BY PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD...BUT WILL KEEP ONLY NICKLE
POPS IN THE GRIDS DESPITE SUBTLE LOW LEVEL ASCENT. TEMPERATURE
WISE...A PREDOMINATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT THE
MARATHON ASOS TODAY...BEFORE TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID
80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO A LIGHT EAST WIND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL ALLOW POCKETS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING LATE TONIGHT...BUT A
LIGHT EAST WIND SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
THURSDAY NIGHT AND IN THE MID 70S FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREDOMINATE IN THE
LOW LATITUDES...WITH A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA SHIFTING QUICKLY INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
AND A RIDGE AXIS REACHING ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE. A DECOUPLED LOW
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVERLAID BY A UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN LIMITED MOISTURE. WITH THAT SAID...A LACK OF BOTH LARGE
SCALE LIFT AND NO DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL PROMPT GENEROUS
DIME POPS TO BE RETAINED THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER..A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL JUSTIFY A BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
ACTIVITY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRAJECTORY
WILL ALLOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF WINDS BACKING TO SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND INCREASING TO NEAR
15 KNOTS ON THE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE UPPER KEYS DURING THE MID AND
LATE AFTERNOON...MOSTLY NORTHWEST WINDS OF NEAR 10 KNOTS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE. FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH A SPLIT RIDGE LYING TO OUR EAST AND WEST CAN BE
EXPECTED...BEFORE A PREDOMINATE EAST WIND SLOWLY OVERSPREADS OUR
ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
HENCE...NO ADVISORIES OR HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE RIDGING NEAR THE KEYS WITH TYPICALLY
INTENSE INSOLATION WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ALLOW FOR
SOME LOW TOPPED CUMULUS WITH BASES AOA FL015-025 MOVING ACROSS BOTH
THE KEYS WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE DAY. GENTLE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO JUST NORTH
OF WEST BY AFTERNOON AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81  70  83  74 / 0 - - -
MARATHON  85  70  86  74 / 0 - - -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DAF

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST





























































000
FXUS62 KMFL 230822
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
422 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTY LINE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY AND STALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 17-19Z...WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS. AT KAPF...GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12
KNOTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AT THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  68  85  71 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  85  74 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            84  70  86  73 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           81  66  83  67 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 230822
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
422 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

VISIBILITY MAY BE RESTRICTED EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY DUE TO SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE NEAR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE HENDRY/COLLIER COUNTY LINE. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH BUT SHOULD WASH OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE LOW 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED H5 SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS IT DOES...A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO RESULTING IN INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AS THE FRONT GETS
CLOSER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND STALLS THE FRONT ALONG THE KEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY AND STALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 17-19Z...WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS. AT KAPF...GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12
KNOTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AT THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT LATER TODAY ALLOWING SEAS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 2 TO
3 FEET. HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  68  85  71 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  85  74 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            84  70  86  73 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           81  66  83  67 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KJAX 230754
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
354 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

...EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW RAIN CHANCES AND WARM TEMPS...

THIS MORNING...A DIFFUSE SURFACE FRONT OVER SE GA WILL MEANDER
SOUTHWARD TOWARD NE FL EARLY THIS MORNING. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED...BUT WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVANCE SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WHICH WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SATELLITE SHOWED SOME LOW STRATUS STARTING FORM NEAR THE GULF
COAST JUST NORTH OF CEDAR KEY...SO EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ADVANCING INLAND OVER THE SUWANEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH DAYBREAK
WITH ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. MIN TEMPS WERE ON TRACK TO
FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOW 60S ALONG THE ST JOHNS
RIVER BASIN AND ATLANTIC COAST. AFTER DAYBREAK...FOG WILL ERODE BY
9 AM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 BY NOON WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR...SREF...ARW AND NMM INSIST ON POPPING A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
INLAND NE FL THIS AFTN AS A THERMAL LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE WASHED
OUT FRONTAL ZONE AND THE SEA BREEZES ADVANCE INLAND. DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL FORCING MECHANISMS...MEAGER
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL ACT TO
SUPPRESS BOTH CONVECTION AND CONDENSATION. OPTED TO ADVERTISE
10-14% RAIN CHANCES AFTER 4 PM AS HIGH TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND TO UPPER 70S COAST WHERE AN AFTN SEA BREEZE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INLAND BETWEEN 1-3 PM.

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NE OF THE REGION
TOWARD THE CAROLINA SEABOARD WHICH WILL BRIDGE THE FRONTAL ZONE
AND ORIENT IT MORE NW-SE OVER NE FL. COULD SEE A FEW EVENING
SHOWERS OVER NE FL...BUT AGAIN GIVEN INCREASED UPPER SUBSIDENCE
CONTINUED WITH RAIN CHANCES ONLY IN THE 10-14% RANGE. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S COAST WITH SHALLOW ONSHORE FLOW.
PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND AREAS.

.THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...INCREASING MOISTURE AND LOW LEVEL SE
FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL PUSH SEABREEZE WELL INLAND. ISOLATED LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
A SW FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP EAST COAST SEABREEZE FRONT CLOSER TO
THE COAST WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. NO POPS EXPECTED FRIDAY DUE
TO SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL DRYING OVER THE AREA AS AN
UPPER IMPULSE TO THE NORTH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGING MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR 90
DEGREES INLAND. ISOLATED INLAND CONVECTION POSSIBLE EACH AFTN/EVE.
POPS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASES. MODELS DIFFER WITH UPPER
PATTERN AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CUTOFFS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TODAY...POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT GNV AND VQQ
WHERE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND CIGS ARE POSSIBLE TIL 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...WEST WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS WILL BECOME ONSHORE NEAR THE
COAST THIS AFTN WITH THE SEA BREEZE. COMBINED SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL
PREVAIL WITH 2 FT SWELLS. SSE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE WATERS. FLOW VEERS SSW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SURFACE TROUGH STALL N OF THE REGION AND HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS PERSISTS OVER THE FL PENINSULA TO OUR SOUTH. COMBINED
SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FT THROUGH FRI...THEN 1-3 FT INTO THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO LINGERING
EAST SWELLS OF 2 FT AND 9-10 SECONDS. A MODERATE RISK IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON THU DUE TO LINGERING EAST SWELLS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES TO IMPACT SEVERAL
LOCAL BASINS INCLUDING THE SUWANNEE...ALTAMAHA...ST MARYS AND SANTA
FE. THE SANTA FE AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES IS FORECAST TO RISE ABOVE
THE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE MARK BY THE WEEKEND WITH A CONTINUE RISE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  83  57  84  62 /   0  10  20  20
SSI  76  62  75  65 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  83  62  80  61 /  10  10  20  20
SGJ  79  65  76  64 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  84  61  84  59 /  10  10  30  30
OCF  85  61  85  60 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

ENYEDI/ZIBURA







000
FXUS62 KTBW 230749
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
349 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.NEAR TERM (TODAY - TONIGHT)...
LIGHT WINDS AND SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AGAIN ALLOW SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SO WILL RETAIN A MENTION OF IN
THE GRIDS AND ZONES. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY WITH AN ATTENDANT BACK DOOR TYPE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH INTO
THE NORTHERN PENINSULA THE REST OF THE MORNING WHERE IT WILL WASH
OUT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES
WITH THESE FEATURES WITH PLEASANT DRY WEATHER AND JUST A FEW CLOUDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S OVER
INLAND LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS
EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO SEA BREEZE.

.MID TERM (THURSDAY - FRIDAY)...
SHALLOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE SETUP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...GENERALLY AROUND 1.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER OR
LESS...THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS
OVER THE INTERIOR REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE OVER ABOVE FLORIDA GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGING ACROSS FLORIDA. GRADIENT FLOW WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH EACH DAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...WITH ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. A COLD FRONT BE CLOSING IN ON THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 OVER THE
INTERIOR...AND LOWS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM SOME PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT KLAL AND
KPGD TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR IS
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 7 TO 9
KNOTS AFTER 15Z...DIMINISHING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 01Z TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS TODAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN SUPPORTING AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH NO FIRE WEATHER ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  65  84  68 /   0   0  10   0
FMY  83  64  86  66 /   0   0  10   0
GIF  84  65  87  66 /   0   0  20  10
SRQ  78  64  81  65 /   0   0  10   0
BKV  82  56  85  58 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  78  67  83  69 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/MCMICHAEL
MID TERM/LONG TERM...18/FLEMING







000
FXUS62 KMLB 230737
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
337 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE GFS SINCE 24
HOURS AGO. A FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST/SOUTHEAST OFF THE COAST
TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. AS THE TROUGH PUSHES SEAWARD THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EASE AND WESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
ONLY RISING SLIGHTLY FROM THE EARLY DAY VALUES AROUND 1 INCH.
THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT DRY FORECAST. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO MODIFY INLAND WITH READINGS REACHING THE MID 80S.
COASTAL SECTIONS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 80S BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE
KICKS IN.

THETA E PROGS SHOW THAT THE WESTERN END OF THIS BACK DOOR FRONT
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. SOMETIMES WITH THESE
WEAK BOUNDARIES THERE IS SOME PRE FRONTAL MOISTENING...SO WITH
LIGHT WINDS THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME CHANCE FOR LATE NIGHT FOG.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME OVERNIGHT STRATOCUMULUS THOUGH...
SO WILL ONLY MENTION PATCHY FOG FOR NOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

THU...TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIST NEAR TO JUST
OFFSHORE OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WILL GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH
THE DAY. MODELS SHOW ENOUGH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ALONG ANY SEA BREEZE
COLLISION THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH THE COLLISION CURRENTLY LOOKS LOW. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
INTO LATE DAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ALOFT. HOWEVER RESULTING CAPE VALUES SEEM FAIRLY LOW...LESS THAN 500
J/KG. ADDING TO THAT...SPC CURRENTLY DOESN`T HAVE A GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR THE PENINSULA ON DAY 2. THEREFORE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID-UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.

FRI-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL CONTINUE WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS AS HIGH AS THE UPPER
80S/LOW 90S OVER THE INTERIOR. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI/SAT AND
THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL EXIST
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RISES UNDER
S/SE FLOW.

MON-WED...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD AS A DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GFS IS
FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONT THAN THE ECMWF WHICH LEADS TO SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THIS BOUNDARY. REGARDLESS...
MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK TO KEEP AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND WITH ANY LATE DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. HIGHS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH SOME LOCATIONS
CONTINUING TO REACH AROUND 90 DEGREES INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR MIST IN THE PRE DAWN
HOURS AT MOST SITES AS TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS ARE MOSTLY 3 DEGREES
OR LESS AT THE PRESENT TIME. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME IFR CEILINGS
AS THE SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME STRATUS WEST TO
NORTHWEST OF KLEE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE DAYTIME LOOKS TO BE VFR.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR FOG ALONG/NORTHWEST OF I-4 MAY BE IN THE CARDS
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...OFFSHORE GRADIENT WIND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
DIMINISH BY THIS AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL TROUGH PULLS SEAWARD TO THE
NORTH OF OUR WATERS. THE DAYTIME SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL KICK
IN ALONG THE COAST BUT LOOKS TO ONLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS. THEN
OVERNIGHT A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW IS INDICATED DUE TO SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH (BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONTAL
TROUGH). SPEEDS SHOULD CONTINUE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

THU-SUN...EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS THURSDAY BECOME
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND...RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 4 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST AT OR ABOVE 35 PERCENT AND WINDS LESS
THAN 15 MPH THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  63  82  65 /   0  10  20  20
MCO  85  63  87  65 /   0  10  20  20
MLB  81  64  83  67 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  82  63  84  67 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  86  64  86  65 /   0  10  20  10
SFB  86  64  86  66 /   0  10  20  20
ORL  85  66  86  67 /   0  10  20  20
FPR  81  64  84  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LASCODY
LONG TERM....WEITLICH





000
FXUS62 KTAE 230729
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
329 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A weak frontal boundary will stall and begin to dissipate across the
region today as a low-amplitude ridge builds over the southeastern
states. Despite the presence of the weak boundary, the atmosphere is
expected to be too dry and stable to support anything other than a
very isolated brief shower or two, with PoPs below 10 percent at
most. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower 80s, except along
the coast, where a vigorous seabreeze will hold temperatures down
several degrees.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Southerly flow will return more moisture to the region by the
start of the short term period. A weak upper level disturbance
will move through the region on Thursday afternoon. A strong sea
breeze in in the afternoon, both from the Gulf and Atlantic will
likely be the focus for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon, particularly along the I-75 corridor. Opted
for 30 percent pops in this area tapering down to around 20
percent further westward into South Central Georgia and the
Florida Big Bend.

By Friday, another weak disturbance will move through the region,
but with this system having less energy to work with than the one
on Thursday, will keep pops 10 percent or less for now.

Temperatures throughout the period will be quite warm with highs
warming into the mid 80s each afternoon. With a strong sea breeze
circulation during the afternoon over shelf waters in the upper
60s, expect temperatures near the coast to be several degrees
cooler than the inland sites. Overnight lows will be a few degrees
warmer than normal and generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
By Saturday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the
Great Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the
parent low moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens.
Southerly flow off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area
through Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly
surface flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during
the day. At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a
very amplified pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough
digging down over the southern Plains. While these models differ
some in timing and structure, they both show a blocking pattern
emerging with a strong upper ridge in the west and an amplified
deep trough in the east. This system should be our best chance of
seeing showers and thunderstorms in the extended period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] Low clouds along with some fog is expected
to spread across the Florida Panhandle into the Big Bend through the
remainder of the overnight hours. This will result in IFR conditions
at both KTLH and KECP. IFR conditions will also be possible at KABY,
where some rain fell earlier. By mid-morning, VFR conditions should
return and prevail at all terminals through the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.Marine...
Expect winds and seas to stay fairly light throughout the period
without any large storm systems to affect the marine area. The
only exception to this will be each afternoon in the sea breeze
zone where winds in the 10 to 15 knot range will be common.

&&

.Fire Weather...
With dewpoints expected to remain generally in the 60s today and mid
to upper 50s on Thursday, relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels. No Red Flag conditions are expected.

&&

.Hydrology...
Many of our river points in Florida remain above flood stage.
Crests have occurred in the upper portions of the Choctawhatchee
and Chipola Rivers at Caryville and Marianna, respectively. Bruce
is cresting this morning at 18.3 feet and will likely remain in
major flood through the remainder of the work week. The Chipola
will finally crest around 25.5 feet later this afternoon and then
begin a steady fall. The combination of the high flows down the
Chipola and increasing flows down the Apalachicola will likely
result in flooding for areas around Wewahitchka and Southern
Liberty County. With releases out of Woodruff lower each day,
expect Blountstown to slowly drop. Further east on the
Ochlockonee River, Havana has crested and will likely drop below
moderate flood stage by Friday.

In Alabama/Georgia, all of the river points continue to drop
steadily with the only exception being over on the Withlacoochee
where modest rises will continue at the US-84 crossing near
Quitman. With peak flows from the Little River and further
upstream from the Withlacoochee moving past this site later
tonight, expect the river to crest just below the moderate flood
category.

For the Suwannee, expect modest rises to continue well into the
weekend. While the Withlacoochee above Pinetta and the Upper
Suwannee have yet to crest, the Alapaha River has, with its peak
flow discharging into the Suwannee now. Crests for the Middle
Suwannee likely won`t occur until the middle of next week with
points on the Lower Suwannee cresting much later than that. Most
points (if not there already) will reach minor flood stage.
Luraville and Wilcox have the best potential of reaching the
moderate flood levels.

Additional precipitation over the next 7 days does not appear
great enough to cause any additional rises over what is already in
the river systems. However, beyond this time frame, the pattern
suggests that there is some potential for heavier rains in the
Wed-Fri timeframe next week that could impact river levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   82  59  84  60  85 /  10   0  10  10  10
Panama City   74  62  77  63  73 /  10   0  10  10  10
Dothan        81  59  85  61  86 /   0   0  10  10  10
Albany        82  57  85  60  86 /   0   0  20  10  10
Valdosta      82  60  84  59  85 /   0   0  30  20  10
Cross City    80  60  83  58  82 /   0   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  75  60  76  61  72 /  10   0  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230540
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY AND STALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 17-19Z...WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS. AT KAPF...GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12
KNOTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AT THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE METRO AREAS WHERE A LAND
BREEZE WILL SET UP. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THERE HAVE BEEN TWO MORE WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON ONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF INLAND COLLIER COUNTY AND THE OTHER ONE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF GLADES COUNTY. THE SMOKE FROM THESE TWO
WILDFIRES WILL SETTLE DOWN TO THE GROUND TONIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS. SO HAVE PUT PATCHY SMOKE IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH AREAS
FOR TONIGHT. THE SMOKE COULD EVEN AFFECT I-75 OVER EASTERN COLLIER
COUNTY AND HIGHWAY STATE ROAD 78 IN NORTHEAST PORTION OF GLADES
COUNTY.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AREAS TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE
LIGHT WINDS. SO HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAND-SEA INTERACTION HAS CAUSED ENOUGH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE FOR A
FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER /MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR/ THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BECOMES ORIENTED EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...SO WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.

FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LIGHT...SO DIURNAL SEA/LAND
BREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...WITH MAXIMA IN THE M/U80S...MINIMA MAINLY
IN 60S /EXCEPT L70S ALONG THE EASTERN URBAN AREAS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THESE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS THE
BURNING QUESTION, WHEN WILL THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORM? IT IS
CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO FORM ON THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BUT HAVING
A HARD TIME DUE TO THE BKN-OVC CLOUD CONDITIONS. SO WITH TIME, IT
MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE A FEW MILES INLAND. SURFACE WIND AFT 00Z WILL
AGAIN BECOME L/V WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  68  85  70 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  70  85  74 /   0   0  10   0
MIAMI            85  70  86  73 /   0   0  10   0
NAPLES           80  66  83  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...84/AK



000
FXUS62 KMFL 230540
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY AND STALL. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 17-19Z...WITH SE WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS. AT KAPF...GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO PUSH INLAND
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12
KNOTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AT THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE METRO AREAS WHERE A LAND
BREEZE WILL SET UP. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THERE HAVE BEEN TWO MORE WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON ONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF INLAND COLLIER COUNTY AND THE OTHER ONE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF GLADES COUNTY. THE SMOKE FROM THESE TWO
WILDFIRES WILL SETTLE DOWN TO THE GROUND TONIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS. SO HAVE PUT PATCHY SMOKE IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH AREAS
FOR TONIGHT. THE SMOKE COULD EVEN AFFECT I-75 OVER EASTERN COLLIER
COUNTY AND HIGHWAY STATE ROAD 78 IN NORTHEAST PORTION OF GLADES
COUNTY.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AREAS TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE
LIGHT WINDS. SO HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAND-SEA INTERACTION HAS CAUSED ENOUGH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE FOR A
FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER /MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR/ THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BECOMES ORIENTED EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...SO WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.

FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LIGHT...SO DIURNAL SEA/LAND
BREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...WITH MAXIMA IN THE M/U80S...MINIMA MAINLY
IN 60S /EXCEPT L70S ALONG THE EASTERN URBAN AREAS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THESE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS THE
BURNING QUESTION, WHEN WILL THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORM? IT IS
CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO FORM ON THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BUT HAVING
A HARD TIME DUE TO THE BKN-OVC CLOUD CONDITIONS. SO WITH TIME, IT
MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE A FEW MILES INLAND. SURFACE WIND AFT 00Z WILL
AGAIN BECOME L/V WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  68  85  70 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  70  85  74 /   0   0  10   0
MIAMI            85  70  86  73 /   0   0  10   0
NAPLES           80  66  83  67 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KJAX 230138
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
938 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH
HAZLEHURST AND BAXLEY EARLIER THIS EVENING HAVE QUICKLY DWINDLED
WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER REMAINING NEAR JESUP. THIS SHOWER
WILL WRAP UP SHORTLY...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF FORCING AND LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...NO ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN OUR AREA.
THE 0Z JAX SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT
800 MB WHICH SHOWS WHY THE PRECIP QUICKLY SHUT DOWN. HIGH RES
MODEL DATA STILL SUGGESTS THAT PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT...TEMPS WILL MANAGE TO DIP INTO THE
UPPER 50S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG COULD AFFECT GNV AND HAVE ADDED CIGS AT 300
FT ALTHO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MVFR VSBY IS POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS
WEST OF I-95 MAINLY 10Z TO 13Z. SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SE GA
AND HAVE ADDED VCSH AT SSI UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE WINDS ARE 10-15 KTS OVER THE OUTER WATERS AND 5-10 KTS
NEAR THE COAST. EAST SWELLS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO COMBINED SEAS OF 2
FT NEARSHORE AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD PEAK BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS. WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE AND VEER TO ONSHORE FOR
WEDNESDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  59  83  59  82 /  20  10   0  10
SSI  61  73  63  75 /  10  10   0  10
JAX  59  81  61  81 /  10  10  10  20
SGJ  61  77  66  77 /  10  10  10  10
GNV  58  84  61  83 /  10  10  10  20
OCF  58  85  61  84 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHULER/TRABERT/GUILLET








000
FXUS62 KKEY 230122
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
922 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
NOTHING SHOWING UP ON THE 250 NAUTICAL MILE RANGE FROM THE KBYX RADAR
AT THIS HOUR. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS STREAMING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE KEYS AREA WITH LITTLE HOPE OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING.

.FORECAST...
WINDS ARE DECOUPLING OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN AS EXPECTED...WITH 5 TO 10
KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT BOTH TERMINALS...NEAR 5 KNOTS AT THE
SMITH SHOAL LIGHT...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS
SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN. WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING
FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS OF CHAMBER OF COMMERCE WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO RELAX AND COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. NO
ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON APRIL 22ND IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...THE LAST TIME KEY WEST HIT 88
DEGREES ON APRIL 22ND WAS 77 YEARS AGO IN 1937. THIS SET UP A THREE
WAY TIE FOR THE DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON APRIL 22ND
PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1908...AND 1882. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST
DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/KEYWEST

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WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.KEYWEST.GOV
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST







000
FXUS62 KMLB 230108
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
908 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF IS NOSING INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL FLORIDA...PARTICULARLY LAKE COUNTY AS FAR AS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA IS CONCERNED...AND THIS SHOULD BE THE MOST FAVORABLE
AREA FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
HOURS. FORECAST REMAINS DRY OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS AROUND 60 DEGREES. MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
FORECAST BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...
OCCASIONAL HIGH CIGS AROUND FL150 AS A THIN BAND OF
CLOUDS...CURRENTLY FROM ISM TO SFB...MOVES THROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST.
PATCHY MVFR FOG MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT LEE BUT POSSIBLE AT OTHER
INLAND SITES 10Z-13Z AS SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN. VFR ALL SITES AFTER
EARLY MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL PICK UP A BIT
OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 10-15 KT OUT OF THE WEST WITH ARRIVAL OF A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH GENERALLY 3-4 FT BY MORNING. NO RAIN
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  81  65  82 /   0   0  10  20
MCO  60  86  65  88 /   0   0  10  20
MLB  59  83  66  84 /   0   0  10  10
VRB  60  84  64  84 /   0   0  10  10
LEE  61  86  65  86 /   0   0  10  20
SFB  62  85  66  87 /   0   0  10  20
ORL  62  86  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
FPR  61  82  65  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BOWEN
IMPACT WX....VOLKMER





000
FXUS62 KTBW 230103
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
903 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.DISCUSSION (TONIGHT)...
ALOFT - A RIDGE REACHED ACROSS THE MID CONUS FROM MEXICO TO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND A TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SE
U.S. RESULTED IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND FL. AT THE SURFACE - HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
SPRAWLED TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...A COLD FRONT ARCED FROM
THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN TO THE
WESTERN GULF COAST...AND A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL GULF REACHED TO FL. THE GULF SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES
OVERNIGHT WITH WEST OR NORTHWEST LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS THAT
WILL GIVE WAY TO PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE. CURRENT FORECASTS LOOK
ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 24/00Z...PREVAILING VFR EXCEPT LATE NIGHT MVFR BR LAL AND
PGD...FMY AND RSW MAY SEE VFR BR. SOME LOW CLOUDS FORM TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT EXPECT THEM TO STAY FEW TO SCT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF TONIGHT WILL KEEP WINDS WEST OR NORTHWEST
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THE NEXT FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 10 PM
WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  64  83  68  84 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  64  85  65  87 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  63  85  66  88 /   0   0  10  20
SRQ  63  80  64  84 /   0   0  10  10
BKV  57  84  58  86 /   0   0  10  10
SPG  67  81  69  84 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE...09/RUDE
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES...74/WYNN
UPPER AIR/DATA ACQUISITION...14/MROCZKA









000
FXUS62 KTAE 230102
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
902 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Made a few updates to the inherited forecast to reflect current
forecast thinking. A weak cold front will slowly continue to move
southeastward overnight before stalling out in our far southern
CWA early tomorrow morning. There are ongoing showers ahead of the
frontal boundary over our northern Georgia and Alabama counties,
but due to lack of forcing expect a diminishing trend as they move
further south. Hires guidance, such as the HRRR and locally run
WRFS, and recent radar trends support this notion. Therefore
expect showers ending shortly after midnight before they reach the
Florida border. Beginning in the early morning hours before
sunrise expect patchy fog to develop throughout the CWA. The
greatest chance of seeing more widespread fog exists from
Tallahassee westward into the Florida Panhandle during this
aforementioned time frame. Otherwise expect a partly cloudy night
with lows bottoming out in the upper 50s, except along the
immediate coast which will be in the lower 60s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00z Thursday]...VFR conditions prevail at
TAF issuance time, with some higher ceilings at the northern
terminals of DHN and ABY with some scattered SHRA. The SHRA should
diminish quickly between 00z and 03z this evening, although some
mid-level cloud cover may linger further north. Models indicate
the development of some areas of low CIGS and fog overnight -
particularly between 07z and 12z - with IFR or briefly LIFR VIS
possible. Confidence is higher in this occurring at TLH, ECP, and
VLD. VFR expected again tomorrow after the fog dissipates, with an
afternoon sea breeze wind shift at ECP.

&&

.Prev Discussion [205 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The mid/upper level local pattern begins with shortwave trough well
into Atlc replaced by amplified ridging...rising heights and
subsidence. At surface...remnants of Tuesday`s cold front limps
into our SE Big Bend Swwd into our Nrn marine area. In its
wake...area model soundings show flow sfc-upper levels NWLY
however with proximity of front...PWATS remain around 1 inch.

During the rest of the period...local ridge amplifies into Thurs
ahead of upstream trough/low developing over Wrn states. By
aftn... this low pivots Newd resulting in Ern ridge flattening
yielding near zonal flow. At surface...increasingly diffuse front
lingers in place before likely lifting Nwd late Wed into Thurs as
high develops over NE Gulf and...along with ridge across Nrn Gulf
Coast...remains established into Thurs night. The combination of
strong mid/upper subsidence and weakening front south will yield
partly to mostly sunny skies. The lifting front will shift local
winds to onshore on Thurs with rising humidity as reflected in
model PWATS which remain around 1 inch. So it will feel muggy.
With very dry mid/upper levels...at best isold POPs near the
front. Temperatures will be near climatology through the period,
with lows in the 50s and highs in the lower to mid 80s.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

On Friday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the Great
Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the parent low
moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens. Southerly flow
off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight chance of
thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area Friday through
Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly surface
flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during the day.
At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a very amplified
pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough digging down over
the southern Plains. While these models differ some in timing and
structure, they both show a blocking pattern emerging with a strong
upper ridge in the west and an amplified deep trough in the east.
This system should be our best chance of seeing showers and
thunderstorms in the extended period.


.Marine...

Despite the front approaching from the north into tonight, then
stalling across extreme North FL through Thursday, winds and seas on
the whole will remain quite low. The exception will be a moderate
increase in onshore winds and chop near the coast each afternoon
because of the daily sea breeze.


.Fire Weather...

Red Flag conditions are not expected through the remainder of the
week.


.Hydrology...

Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood
stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage, several
others are in moderate. Most area rivers will crest soon or have
already crested. The exception is the Suwannee River chich will rise
slowly for the remainder of the week. Rainfall amounts are expected
to be less than 0.25 inch and will have little impact on area river
levels.

The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found
on our AHPS page (below).

http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   58  83  58  82  61 /  10   0   0  10   0
Panama City   61  78  63  75  64 /  10   0   0  10   0
Dothan        58  83  57  83  61 /  40   0   0  10  10
Albany        56  83  56  83  60 /  50   0   0  20  10
Valdosta      57  84  59  83  60 /  30  10  10  20   0
Cross City    60  83  59  82  59 /  10  10  10  20   0
Apalachicola  62  76  63  74  63 /  10   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NAVARRO/GOULD
SHORT TERM...BLOCK
LONG TERM...BLOCK
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BLOCK
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN







000
FXUS62 KMFL 230037 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
837 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT
ALLOWING FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS OVER THE METRO AREAS WHERE A LAND
BREEZE WILL SET UP. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY TONIGHT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THERE HAVE BEEN TWO MORE WILDFIRES THIS AFTERNOON ONE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF INLAND COLLIER COUNTY AND THE OTHER ONE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF GLADES COUNTY. THE SMOKE FROM THESE TWO
WILDFIRES WILL SETTLE DOWN TO THE GROUND TONIGHT DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS. SO HAVE PUT PATCHY SMOKE IN THE FORECAST FOR BOTH AREAS
FOR TONIGHT. THE SMOKE COULD EVEN AFFECT I-75 OVER EASTERN COLLIER
COUNTY AND HIGHWAY STATE ROAD 78 IN NORTHEAST PORTION OF GLADES
COUNTY.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AREAS TONIGHT...DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE
LIGHT WINDS. SO HAVE PUT PATCHY FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR THESE
AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAND-SEA INTERACTION HAS CAUSED ENOUGH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE FOR A
FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER /MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR/ THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BECOMES ORIENTED EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...SO WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.

FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LIGHT...SO DIURNAL SEA/LAND
BREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...WITH MAXIMA IN THE M/U80S...MINIMA MAINLY
IN 60S /EXCEPT L70S ALONG THE EASTERN URBAN AREAS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THESE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS THE
BURNING QUESTION, WHEN WILL THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORM? IT IS
CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO FORM ON THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BUT HAVING
A HARD TIME DUE TO THE BKN-OVC CLOUD CONDITIONS. SO WITH TIME, IT
MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE A FEW MILES INLAND. SURFACE WIND AFT 00Z WILL
AGAIN BECOME L/V WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  84  68  85 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  66  84  70  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            67  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           63  80  66  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 230019
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
819 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WSW WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PENETRATES INLAND AND LEADS TO ESE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAND-SEA INTERACTION HAS CAUSED ENOUGH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE FOR A
FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER /MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR/ THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BECOMES ORIENTED EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...SO WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.

FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LIGHT...SO DIURNAL SEA/LAND
BREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...WITH MAXIMA IN THE M/U80S...MINIMA MAINLY
IN 60S /EXCEPT L70S ALONG THE EASTERN URBAN AREAS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THESE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS THE
BURNING QUESTION, WHEN WILL THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORM? IT IS
CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO FORM ON THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BUT HAVING
A HARD TIME DUE TO THE BKN-OVC CLOUD CONDITIONS. SO WITH TIME, IT
MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE A FEW MILES INLAND. SURFACE WIND AFT 00Z WILL
AGAIN BECOME L/V WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  84  68  85 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  66  84  70  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            67  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           63  80  66  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB



000
FXUS62 KMFL 230019
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
819 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WSW WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT ALONG
THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PENETRATES INLAND AND LEADS TO ESE WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING TRANQUIL WEATHER AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
LAND-SEA INTERACTION HAS CAUSED ENOUGH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE FOR A
FAIRLY CLOUDY DAY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.

A COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER /MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR/ THURSDAY...BUT
OVERALL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER BECOMES ORIENTED EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...SO WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY.

FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LIGHT...SO DIURNAL SEA/LAND
BREEZES ARE LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...WITH MAXIMA IN THE M/U80S...MINIMA MAINLY
IN 60S /EXCEPT L70S ALONG THE EASTERN URBAN AREAS.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY RISE TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AND MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS COMBINED WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THESE WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT
ONCE A SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THAT IS THE
BURNING QUESTION, WHEN WILL THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORM? IT IS
CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO FORM ON THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BUT HAVING
A HARD TIME DUE TO THE BKN-OVC CLOUD CONDITIONS. SO WITH TIME, IT
MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE A FEW MILES INLAND. SURFACE WIND AFT 00Z WILL
AGAIN BECOME L/V WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MARINE...
NORTHERLY SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WITH
WINDS BELOW 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  84  68  85 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  66  84  70  85 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            67  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           63  80  66  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB




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